This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Game of the Month. This is the first NBA Finals Game Seven since 2016 and we are seeing one of the biggest lines in a Game Seven in NBA history. That being said, it has actually come down with early money hitting Indiana, bringing the number down to seven in most spots from the 8.5 opener. The home/road dichotomy for the Thunder has been glaring as they are 5-5 on the road but now are back home where they are 10-2 and the margins are even more obvious as the Oklahoma City average scoring margin in the playoffs is +21 at home compared to -7 on the road. In the 10 home wins, nine have been by double digits with the exception being a seven-point win over Denver in Game Five of the conference semifinals and even in the two losses which were by three points combined, the Thunder had leads of 14 and 15 points. The Thunder were lazy and lethargic in Game Six as they committed 21 turnovers and they were just 8-30 from long range. Both areas will be cleaned up as will the defensive intensity with the home floor being the difference once again which extends the NBA run of the home team being 15-4 in Game Seven finals. 10* (514) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. We came up short with Edmonton last night despite the yardage disparity which was skewed because of five Montreal sacks and we have a similar situation tonight with one team showing a huge edge over the other and we are going contrarian again. Saskatchewan is a huge public side for tonight as laying the short number on the road is going to continue to be the play throughout the day up until kickoff. The Roughriders are off to a 2-0 start and are right behind the Alouettes in the league power ratings so they are favorites for a reason but why is it so short and the bait is on. This is a tough spot for them on a short week coming off an east coast game, going back home and coming back east again. Toronto is 0-2 as it awaits the return of quarterback Chad Kelly and the Argonauts will have to wait another week at least so it will be up to Nick Arbuckle to try and get the offense right. They have put up only 29 points in their first two games but with this being his third start, being more comfortable is the key. On the other side, Getting after the passer has been a bright spot for the Argonauts so far this season and making Trevor Harris feel the pressure is going to be a priority. Take the short number at home in this great contrarian angle. 10* (720) Toronto Argonauts

This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Everything points to Montreal in this one as the Alouettes have looked like the most dominant team in the CFL and they are atop the league power ratings. Their offense has hummed along with 28 and 39 points while the defense, which came in as arguably the best in the CFL, is the best right now having allowed just 28 points and a league low 257.0 ypg. It is a short week for Montreal and making it shorter is the cross country trip out west. Edmonton is dead last in defense after it allowed 448 yards against B.C. while the offense is also last as the Elks managed only 248 yards. The line has moved up from the opener based on the numbers and the early action but Edmonton is coming off an early bye week leading up to its home opener. This is the contrarian opener for Week Three, 10* (718) Edmonton Elks

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The health of Tyrese Haliburton is obviously the big storyline heading into Game Six. The key for Indiana is to get off to a quick start with the crowd in full force and Haliburton will be best early in the game if he plays. Even if he does not go, the Pacers have to control three things as they have to take care of the ball, hit threes and outscore Oklahoma City's bench (the first time a team got more bench scoring and lost in this series was Game Five), and if they do these, they can force a Game Seven. Indiana is 12-3 when Tyrese Haliburton scores at least 20 points in these playoffs and 8-11 when he doesn't so having him play and produce would be a bonus but we are not expecting that and while he was non-existent in Game Five, that was on the road and tonight we should see a better Pacers' offensive attack as role players perform better at home. This is the first time that Indiana has dropped two straight games all postseason and while a win is far from out of the question, we are getting value with the steamed number. 10* (512) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana had its chances in Game Four at home to take a commanding 3-1 series lead but the Pacers folded in the fourth quarter and now we are back where we started. The Thunder have home court back but instead of a best-of-seven, the series is now a best-of-three with two games taking place here should it go to a Game Seven. Oklahoma City dominated the Pacers 12-4 on the glass in the fourth quarter, leading to eight second-chance points and it did not help the Pacers cause by missing four late free throws which gave the Thunder not only the win but the cover, their first on the road in the entire postseason after starting 0-8 ATS. We are catching some value here as Oklahoma City closed -10 and -11.5 in the first two games at home and now they are laying less than double digits but likely not for long. Late Oklahoma City money is expected again which could cause this number to eventually hit double digits so bet it early even though we do not think it will come into play as we are looking at a similar outcome to Game Two as the home floor will be a huge advantage tonight. 10* (510) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. This is the overreaction game of the week as Saskatchewan is coming off a home win over Ottawa as a 3.5-point home favorite while Hamilton got rolled at Calgary as a three-point favorite. Now we are seeing the overreaction line with the Ti-Cats coming in as home underdogs based on just one week of results and we are going against the public move. It was not the start Hamilton was looking for as it started last season 0-5 and missed the playoffs so there is definitely a sense of urgency this season, especially after an opening loss they were expected to win. Now they are back in Hamilton for their home opener looking to avoid the mistakes that hurt them last week as they put up 350 yards and still scored 28 points but they gave Calgary too many outs. The Roughriders came through for us but it was not an easy one and they now hit the road all the way east with an even bigger injury list. While the offense was solid as expected, the defense gave up 398 yards to Ottawa, the same Ottawa team that gained only 250 yards last night. 10* (716) Hamilton Ti-Cats

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We are going contrarian with the Thunder which may sound like an oxymoron but the fact they are now 0-8 ATS on the road in postseason makes it contrarian. As mentioned for Game Three, the Thunder were the first team to lose 6 consecutive playoff road games ATS since the 2008 Celtics so the fact that it has reached eight is pretty shocking. Despite being down 2-1 in the series and having no more home court advantage, Oklahoma City is still the series favorite at -220 and that is a number based on the thinking it is going to win this game and we think that does happen and by margin comfortably. Game Three was swung by turnovers as the Thunder committed 17 of them which led to 21 Pacers points. Indiana also got a team high 27 points from Benedict Mathurin off the bench who was 9-12 from the floor and a team best 7-8 from the free throw line and they aren't going to get that again. It is almost do or die for the Thunder and they bring it Friday on both ends to square up the series and regain home court. 10* (507) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the B.C. LIONS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. B.C. rolled over Edmonton in its season opener 31-14 and comes in as a road favorite this week against one of the CFL Grey Cup favorites but it is favored for a bigger reason than what took place last week. It was an impressive offensive performance for the Lions who actually turned the ball over on downs on their first two possessions with a backup quarterback in the game but it was Nathan Rourke who carried then, going 27-36 for 324 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. While that was at home and this is now their road opener, we are not concerned with B.C. winning at Winnipeg in each of the last two seasons. The first game of the 2025 season for the Blue Bombers will be without their starting quarterback Zach Collaros, who is serving his suspension for failing to appear for an offseason drug test. Backup quarterback Chris Streveler will get the start and could be in for a long night against the B.C. front seven led by 2023 CFL Defensive Player of the Year Matthieu Betts. He finished last year throwing for 343 yards, one touchdown and one interception and got his playing time in running situations where he ran for 10 touchdowns and with his inability to move it downfield, the Lions will load up the box to key om his running along with running back Brady Oliveira. 10* (709) B.C. Lions

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Indiana is back home following a necessary road split in Oklahoma City and now have home court advantage for at least part of the rest of the series. We do think the Pacers can win the game tonight as they have been awesome at home in the postseason, going 6-2 and catching a great number. The Thunder are the better team, we know that and it is backed up wityh this line but Indiana can stay within the number and still lose and it really comes down to Tyrese Haliburton who has struggled at times in the playoffs but has also been able to take over games and after scoring 31 points in Oklahoma City, he picks it up at home. The Thunder have started the playoffs 0-7 ATS on the road and they were the first team to lose 6 consecutive playoff road games ATS since the 2008 Celtics. 10* (506) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Opening Enforcer. Saskatchewan opened last season 4-0 before imploding with a 1-7-1 run before closing 4-1 to make the postseason. The Roughriders picked up a win over B.C. before their season came to an end at Winnipeg and there are high expectations this season. Their defense was one of the best in the league last season and it is expected to be even better and they are just hoping the offense can help out. A lot of that will come down to quarterback Trevor Harris who actually had a great season with a 91.5 passer grade which was No. 2 in the CFL but he is old and is injury prone so now is the time to back him when he is fully healthy. Ottawa was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 9-8-1 after going 14-54 the previous four seasons and made the playoffs and while it was blown out by Toronto, it is something to build on. The Redblacks big concern is their defense, namely in the passing game, but also at quarterback with Dru Brown who struggled early in the season and while he finished strong in his last three games, that was a small sample size and now he hits the road for the season opener. 10* (702) Saskatchewan Roughriders

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Game One is finally here and we keep it simple. This Oklahoma City team does have a lot to prove but there is so much in its favor. We are not touching the series price since there is no value and we are staying away from Indiana overall and in Game One. Per Action, over the last 50 years, 11 teams have been -600 or higher series favorites and they have gone 10-1 with the 2004 Pistons being the only exception. Additionally, the Game One underdogs have been atrocious, going 2-18 while covering just three of those over the last 20 years and when getting more than five points, they are 0-12 while covering just one of those. This Pacers roster is solid but for everything they have advantages most of the time including bench, depth, taking care of the ball and pace, the Thunder do it better. As with most home teams to start the Finals, the Thunder will be out to make a statement in Game One. 10* (502) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We all know what is at stake tonight for the Knicks to keep the series going and while they have lost the first two at home, they get it done and do not let the Pacers advance at MSG. New York is 30-19 at home but just 3-5 in the postseason and that is making bettors hesitant as we are seeing 60 percent of the money on the Pacers yet we have the reverse line move. This opened at 5 and has come down to 4 in some places despite the Indiana money. The Knicks avoid the gentleman sweep, we can go into stats but it is not necessary here as we are playing the situation and the number as this series goes back to Indianapolis as the garden will be rocking tonight. 10* (552) New York Knicks

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We are seeing a Game Four where the road team has won every game and now we have the same number with the Pacers from Game Three. With that comes the fact that we are seeing 63 percent of the money on Indiana and yet the number has come down. We saw a 3 at a short time on Sunday and went to 2.5 quickly and now at 2 most everywhere despite the money variance. Obviously the big concern is the injury report with Aaron Nesmith being questionable but he really has had only one exceptionally good game since Game Two against Cleveland. From a statistical standpoint, the Pacers were awful in Game Three where they went 5-25 from behind the behind the arc and that will get better. We have a number that is within a possession on a home team that has yet to win in this series. Sign us up. 10* (548) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Oklahoma City got away with one at home on Tuesday as a tie game late turned into a win thanks to Michael Porter, Jr. not being able to find the rim when it mattered. The Thunder can close it out tonight and we are actually getting a number that makes sense as they closed at 6 and 7 the first two games here and now laying a shorter price. A lot of that is due to the Nuggets having covered four of the five games in this series and this is actually considered a contrarian side despite playing the favorite. Denver is catching 78 percent of the money at both BetOnline and DraftKings yet we are seeing minimal line movement and it has gone up in some places so we are getting a reverse line move which we do not see very often in the postseason. Denver looked to go the Celtics route by launching 46 three-pointers in Game Five and hit only 13 of those and the Nuggets have now shot less than 46 percent overall in all five games. The defense has done its job in three of the five games and while being home is a bonus, the Nuggets are just 30-17 at home which is not very good compared to past seasons and the Thunder have adjusted well to the altitude adjustment this far into the series. 10* (507) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Three of the four games have been decided by one or two possessions, although overtime took one of those away, so we are seeing a much more competitive series than most expected. That being said, this game is going back to Oklahoma City where the only blowout took place and the Thunder will not only be out to take a 3-2 series lead, they will be out to make a statement and get some of their mojo back before having to go back to Denver. This is the first time we have touched Oklahoma City in the postseason which has been the right move thus far as the Thunder are 1-5 against the number in their last six games and this is the time to strike. They lost Game One here and they cannot afford to come out with that complacency again or there is a real possibility they will not be coming back for a Game Seven. They are 38-7 at home with the largest scoring differential in the league at 15.6 ppg and they are 18-8-1 ATS when favored by double digits and they add to the win column tonight. 10* (582) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. All series are not created equal but this one and the Cleveland/Indiana series are looking eerily similar. The Celtics have been on the same path as the Cavaliers, losing the first two games at home and then posting a blowout win in Game Three. We expect a bounce back from New York and we are catching an extra point on top of it and comparable to Indiana last night, we have the double edge with the Knicks which can win outright while also coming in as the underdog that can cover with a loss. One factor for playing Boston in Game Three was the fact there was an unlikely chance it was going to continue to shoot poorly and we are playing the Knicks here for that same reason. They shot just 40 percent from the floor including going 5-25 from long range and lost by 22 points despite outscoring the Celtics by nine points at the free throw line. Boston did not sway from its style as it put up 40 three-pointers on Saturday and was fortunate to make 20 of those but the three-pointer can be fickle. We expect the Knicks to close the gap on the long range scoring and while Boston may be considered the more desperate team, New York does not want to give home court back to the Celtics with the next game in Boston. 10* (576) New York Knicks

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland got back into the series with a 126-104 Game Three win and has the chance to reclaim homecourt with a win tonight and while that could happen, we see a much closer game and the sense of urgency switches to Indiana to protect its homecourt on Sunday. The Cavaliers were decimated with injuries in Game Two but were back to full strength on Friday thanks to having an extra day of rest and now they are laying roughly the same number with the public backing behind them. Indiana was shell of itself in Game Three and it was due to one bad quarter. In the second quarter, they missed eight of 11 shots, committed five turnovers and scored a season low 13 points in any quarter. The Pacers are ranked third in points per game (116.8) and fifth in possessions per game (103.8) so we should see a bounce back, especially on their home floor and more specifically, a better performance from Tyrese Haliburton who scored only four points on 2-8 shooting. We have the double edge with Indiana which can win outright while also coming in as the underdog that can cover with a loss. 10* (574) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer (15-12 Run). Cleveland came through on Friday on the road after dropping its first two games at home and we are banking on Boston doing the same. The Celtics became the first team ever to lose two playoff games after leading by at least 20 points and making it even more unheard of is that both were at home. It was a simple failure in that Boston could not hit its shots late and the NBA playoff record of 45 missed three-pointers from Game One was backed up with 30 misses in Game Two. They are bound to shoot better and have already had the edges in possessions and rebounding. The Knicks have now played seven straight games that were within three points in the final minute and have come away with five wins so there has definitely been some luck involved. Throughout NBA history, 34 teams have faced a 0-2 deficit and came back to win the series including five that lost the first two games at home and all it takes is two wins to regain homecourt. Following the Cavaliers win last night, higher-seeded favorites that are coming off a two-game losing streak are 33-19-3 ATS on the road. 10* (567) Boston Celtics

This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland is off to a disappointing 0-2 start in the Eastern Conference Semifinals along with Boston as the two top seeds are in serious jeopardy of not advancing as most everyone predicted. Injuries played a major role for the Cavaliers in the Game Two loss as they lost gas down the stretch in blowing a 20-point loss with Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, and Evan Mobley all out. There are two points of optimism. They have had two days off in-between games which helps the injury situation and there is some noted information heading into Friday. Per the Athletic's Joe Vardon, all three players will try to play Game Three coming from two league sources. Throughout NBA history, 34 teams have faced a 0-2 deficit and came back to win the series including five that lost the first two games at home so they are not dead yet. Indiana clearly has the momentum and at 32-11 at home, that would normally be a huge edge but Cleveland brings in an identical 32-11 record on the road and now much healthier, the season remains alive after tonight. 10* (563) Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. To no surprise, we are seeing 81 percent of the money on Minnesota as it is coming off a loss and Golden St. will be without Steph Curry for the foreseeable future so this one looks easy for Timberwolves backers. They have been solid at home this season but far from dominating as they are 27-17 but they have covered only 20 of those games and are now seeing a 4.5-point line swing from Game One and being asked to roll by double digits. They are 8-7 ATS as home favorites by double digits with 13 of those games against non-playoff teams and the two against postseason teams resulted in going 0-2 ATS. This is the scenario where we see a team rise up when their star is out and while they did already do this for three quarters in Game One, the fact that they are being this disrespected will have the Warriors ready again. We are obviously going contrarian and while the Oklahoma City shellacking is fresh on the minds of everyone in the same situation at Minnesota, we are not buying this move. This is the first time since 2007 the Warriors have been a playoff double-digit underdog. 10* (559) Golden St. Warriors

This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The road teams are now 5-0 in the first five games of the second round of the playoffs with one of those taking place here in overtime. The Knicks took Game One in overtime despite going 17-31 from the free throw line which nearly came back to haunt them but they caught Boston on one of its worst shooting nights. The Celtics missed an NBA postseason record 45 three pointers and the most important factor was that In the fourth quarter, Jason Tatum scored two points, both of which came on free throws as he missed all seven of his shot attempts, five of which were from long range. Meanwhile, the Knicks were 11-19 from behind the arc in the second half. Point being, it took these shooting outliers for New York to barely win so coming back to more normal conditions, the Celtics should roll in Game Two. The Knicks win was a breakthrough for a team that went 0-10 against the league’s top three seeds during the regular season and we do not see a repeat of that as Boston can and should dominate. 10* (556) Boston Celtics

This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We have seen all three underdogs win outright in their respective Game Ones and that ends here. Cleveland played one of their worst games in a long time as its defense allowed Indiana to shoot 53 percent including 53 percent from long range. The Cavaliers have lost four of the five meetings this season with the lone Pacers loss coming when Tyrese Haliburton did not play it can be argued they have the huge matchup edge and in a prolonged series, we could see that but this is a bounce back spot for the home team. 87 percent of the money is on Indiana and the line has continued to come down because of the injury report so the value is there. 10* (584) Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston swept this season series starting with three blowouts and then concluding with an overtime win in New York. The Celtics are obviously the big favorite in this series at -750 but we have value in Game One based on what they were laying in the two regular season games here and they are laying just a bucket less than what they were in all three home games against Orlando to open their first round series. Boston is 31-13 at home which is just a four-game difference than the Knicks record on the road. The big talk about New York has been the fact it has not beaten any of the top teams, going 2-12 against the top 10 the NBA but we are not looking for the outright winner and this has been a rare but great price for New York. This is a major step up from the Pistons but we like the number with Thibs coming into this opener. 10* (553) New York Knicks

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The four teams on Sunday that were down 2-1 in their respective series and trying to avoid the dreaded 3-1 deficit all lost and we have another in play on Monday. We were on the Pistons and Lakers yesterday and those could have gone the right way but the last seconds did not go in our favor and we are going right back with the same situation on Monday with the Rockets. We are seeing a different line move here though as this line opened at a number we do not usually see based on the bounce back angle and getting over a possession presents excellent value. Houston could not have played worse on offense as it shot just 39 percent from the floor while going only 14-24 from the free throw line on its way to blowing a 13-point lead and getting outscored in the fourth quarter 35-22. This was the second game in the series that the Rockets have shot below 40 percent and both resulted in double digit losses and now it is gut check time. The Warriors improved to 26-17 at home but they are just 7-16-1 ATS when home favorites of 3.5 point or more and could be without Jimmy Butler once again and he will clearly not be 100 percent if he does go. 10* (581) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. We are backing situations and rebound opportunities in the first two games on Sunday with the two teams looking to avoid 3-1 series deficits. Both the Pistons and Lakers played good enough to win Game Three but Detroit was the victim of some controversial late calls while Los Angeles was on the wrong end of a close game late that ended up being an inflated loss. Both teams are looking to bounce back to even their series up and while the line swings are going against our teams in both games, that is expected in these zig-zag situations but we are not concerned about either of the moves. 10* (571) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. We are backing situations and rebound opportunities in the first two games on Sunday with the two teams looking to avoid 3-1 series deficits. Both the Pistons and Lakers played good enough to win Game Three but Detroit was the victim of some controversial late calls while Los Angeles was on the wrong end of a close game late that ended up being an inflated loss. Both teams are looking to bounce back to even their series up and while the line swings are going against our teams in both games, that is expected in these zig-zag situations but we are not concerned about either of the moves. 10* (570) Detroit Pistons

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Ultimate Underdog. Following a split in Denver, the Clippers took a 2-1 series lead with a 34-point win in Game Three as they blew it open thanks to a 23-2 run over the end of the first quarter and the start of the second quarter and then never looked back. These blowouts should not happen in the playoffs between two fairly equal teams separated by one game and coming off the first two games that were decided by five points combined. It was the offensive effort for Denver that was lackluster as it shot only 40 percent from the floor including 26 percent from long range while committing 16 turnovers. The Nuggets are catching a rare bigger number as they are 4-2 ATS on the road when getting six points or more, one of those losses coming way back in November and the other coming at Oklahoma City where they entered the fourth quarter down by three points before the Thunder pulled away. We saw this number go between 6 and 5.5 points after opening and then fell down to 4.5 points very early Friday morning and stayed for about four minutes and has been on the move back up since then. The public will be backing the Clippers based on their run of 20-4 over their last 24 games and we feel this is the contrarian spot. 10* (565) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Round 1 Game of the Year. Miami did its best to hang around in Game Two as it had to withstand 11 three-pointers from the Cavaliers in the second quarter, an NBA Playoff record, and Cleveland led by 19 points late in the third quarter yet the Heat rallied to take a two-point lead with 3:11 left but were outscored 18-7 the remainer of the game. Donovan Mitchell took over and now the Heat find themselves in a must win spot to keep the series alive in a very similar spot where we had Memphis in Game Three heading home down 2-0 and while it still lost, it was a wire-to-wire cover despite the Grizzlies losing Ja Morant for more than half of the game. Miami finally home after winning two Play-In Tournament road games prior to the two games in Cleveland. The Cavaliers coasted to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and they hit the road where they are 30-11 and are going to be the public team here laying single digits. While being one of the best covers teams in the league throughout the season, they are just 9-14 ATS since March 5th, 7-13 ATS as favorites. We are seeing a reverse line move, albeit slight, but this line opened at 6.5 and is down to 6 and even 5.5 despite 82 percent of the money on Cleveland as of Friday afternoon. 10* (562) Miami Heat

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Timberwolves attained their goal in Los Angeles by coming away with the series split and are back home where they are 25-16 and the line here is holding despite the majority of the money coming in on the Lakers. The Timberwolves finished the season strong with winning eight of the final nine regular season games prior to the split but this one is not ideal laying a possession. Minnesota really struggled in these fringe home games as it is 1-12 ATS when favored at home between 1.5 and 7 points. They won both regular season home meetings but LeBron James missed one of those games while he and Anthony Davis combined to score just 22 points on 8-30 shooting and this is a more dynamic Lakers teams since the Luka Doncic acquisition. The Lakers did just go 19-22 on the road this season but were 8-5 against the number when getting fewer than five points and all but two of those were very early in January and prior while going 2-0 ATS in the two games in March with the current roster. This is an ideal spot for the offense to rebound as aside from Doncic, Los Angeles shot just 40 percent from the floor in the first two games and Game Three playoff contests is where LeBron has shined in the pas, averaging over 27 ppg with the Lakers. 10* (557) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Memphis got embarrassed in Game One of this series as it lost by 51 points in a game that was over before it started. The Grizzlies looked better in Game Two as they lost by 19 points so looking better may sound tongue in cheek and the series is on the line tonight as another loss here will basically end it. While they are out to win, we are more concerned about the cover and Memphis is catching a big number at home and it is actually the biggest it has seen this season. We are seeing the overadjustment because of the first two results as well as the fact the Grizzlies are 0-6 straight up and against the number in the six meetings this season. The public is at 69 percent on the Thunder which is certainly as expected. Oklahoma City comes in on a six-game winning streak while covering all six which is also being factored into the number. The Thunder are 8-3 ATS as double-digit road favorites and while that is hard to go against, all 11 of those games were against teams not in the postseason and looking at shorter prices, they are 2-4 ATS as favorites between 8.5 and 9.5 points and that includes a 0-3 ATS mark against current playoff teams. 10* (546) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Wednesday Signature Enforcer. Golden St. did what it needed and stole one of the first two games in Houston, taking Game One by 10 points on Sunday in an ugly offensive game from the Rockets. They shot just 39 percent including 21 percent from long range with Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet going a combined 7-34 from the floor which ruined a dominating performance on the offensive glass with a 22-6 advantage. That was the expected gameplan but the shots just were not falling and we can expect that to reverse itself. We are seeing the typical line move from the opener but it is only a move of one point with a line swing of 4.5 points from the opener in the first game. Houston is now between +270 and +290 to win the series after opening +150 and this is obviously a must take before hitting the road. The Warriors got a combined 56 points from Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler as they went 22-38 from the floor against a Houston defense that came in allowing opponents to shoot just 44.9 percent from the floor, top five in the NBA. The Rockets have lost four straight games going back to the regular season including two straight games at home where they are 29-13, three of those to the Warriors who have covered six of the last seven in this series which is going to make them a public play again and we are seeing that with 87 percent of the money on them and we are still seeing the reverse line move. 10* (542) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The NBA Playoffs were accustomed to the zig-zag theory of backing a team coming off a loss but the markets have made adjustments and we are seeing a line switch here and it Is too much. Denver opened as a 3.5-point favorite in Game One and closed at -3 while failing to cover in overtime and we are seeing a four-point swing despite a clean injury list. As mentioned, the Nuggets had a roller coaster of a season which went through stretches of looking like the best team in the NBA and others where they could not get out of their own way. They went through a stretch starting in early March where it went 6-10 which ultimately led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone but have no business being a home underdog here. The Clippers had their eight-game winning streak snapped with the Saturday loss and still remain ahead of Denver in the Championship odds. A win here gets them closer to market value but the Nuggets home floor gets it done and even more so with the number where a win means a cover. 10* (524) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds open their series on Sunday with the Rockets being the lone team not a large favorite and actually opened as underdogs before a line flip. They were +1.5 on Wednesday and despite money coming in on Golden St. early, up to 86 percent, the line switched and this is similar to what we saw in Indiana with the Pacers seeing their line go up despite the huge money on Milwaukee. Clearly, Houston is getting no respect here as it comes in as a series underdog of +150 despite being the No. 2 seed which comes with home court advantage where the Rockets are 29-12 this season which includes a loss in their final game of the season where they clearly were not engaged against a Denver team that was playing for the No. 4 seed. While the Rockets were not great when laying big numbers, they did go 11-6-1 ATS as home favorites of seven or fewer points, winning all but three of those outright which is important considering the short price. Golden St. opened as the favorite and is favored in the series simply because it is Golden St. and history goes a long way with the betting public even as skewed as that rationale is. This is the first home playoff game for Houston since 2020 and it is a big deal. 10* (516) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Denver opened as a 3.5-point favorite but it has been bet down with the money all over the Clippers which are the biggest sleeper favorite in the postseason and we are seeing that with the series price as they are now a -125 favorite after the Nuggets opened at -130 favorites. It is a weird opening number based on the series price with Denver having home court and will be the favorite in all four home games should the series go the distance and while it is a possible thing that the Clippers steal a game on the road, it is not likely in Game One. They come in rising an eight-game winning streak and have the playoff scheduling advantage with days off making it a given that Kawhi Leonard will be available for every game. The Clippers are 20-21 on the road including a 7-14 record as underdogs. The Nuggets had a roller coaster of a season which went through stretches of looking like the best team in the NBA and others where they could not get out of their own way. They went through a stretch starting in early March where it went 6-10 which ultimately led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone but they did close with three straight wins to secure the No. 4 seed and the home court which has not been as dominant is it has in years past, thus the short Game One price. 10* (506) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Afternoon Dominator. We are playing this game partly due to the line move as this opened at 4.5 and there has been money on Milwaukee all week starting Tuesday night with 79 percent of the take and 60 percent of the tickets yet the line went the other way and despite those percentages still in the Bucks favor, it continues to move up so we are going against this reverse line move. Milwaukee caught fire to end the regular season as it won its final eight games so it has adjusted to playing without Damian Lillard but still comes in with a very under matched backcourt in this series. Milwaukee is just 4-12 this season as an underdog of five or more points while covering only six of those. The Pacers nearly matched the Bucks success down the stretch as they won seven of their last eight games to hold off Milwaukee for the No. 4 spot in the Eastern Conference which they took by two games. Indiana went through stretches this season where injuries played a toll but now fully healthy, this is a roster that is one of the best in the conference and this is the statement game. Indiana went 29-11 at home this season which includes a record of 11-9 when favored by five or fewer points or as an underdog but went 18-2 when favored by more than five points. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Friday Play-In Dominator. Memphis lost a tough one in Golden St. in the play-in opener as it was suffocated by Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry which combined for 75 points on 50 percent shooting but the Grizzlies haver a second life coming back home with a chance to meet Oklahoma City in the Western Conference first round. Going into that game, Memphis was 2-10 since the start of February against conference opponents that that were a No. 10 seed or higher, now 2-11 following the Warriors loss, but both of those wins came against Dallas and this is going to be a great environment. Memphis is 13-4 as a favorite at home by six points or more, two of those losses were against the Nuggets and Clippers when they were without Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard respectively so the lines were actually inflated, another was against Brooklyn way back in November and the fourth was against Atlanta with no Ja Morant in the lineup. We won with Dallas against Sacramento as the Mavericks built a 26-point lead and never looked back. They have the rest disadvantage with one less day and while they are have 18 road wins, 10 of those were December and prior. 10* (592) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Play-In Game of the Year. Miami went on the road and took out Chicago by 19 points in a wire-to-wire cover as it never trailed to advance for a chance to claim the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are now just 18-23 on the road and they come in as the slight underdog once again but this is a spot they have flourished in this season as they are 10-30 against the top 16 in the league while going 28-15 against teams ranked No. 17 or lower with the latter including only seven losses on the road. Miami got 38 points from Tyler Herro, two points off his season-high but the Heat do not need to bank on another big performance from him as they have gone only 9-10 this season when he scores 30 points or more. Atlanta will likely be a popular public play based on heading back home following a blowout loss in Orlando in the first round where it is 21-19 including a pair of wins over the Heat by 10 and 12 points during the regular season. Despite the blowout in Orlando, the Hawks have been better in the role of the underdog as they are 5-16 ATS this season when favored by seven points or less including 3-10 ATS at home. 10* (589) Miami Heat

This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Wednesday Play-In Dominator. Sacramento was able to snag home court for the play-in game and while coming off an 11-point win over Phoenix on Sunday, the Suns were playing for nothing and did not play their big starters. The Kings had lost two home games prior to that at home and while those were against the Nuggets and Clippers, you have to go all the way back to the end of March before they were laying a similar number and that was against Portland. Now they are laying the same number against a Dallas team that everyone had written off but was able to sneak in partly due to the Suns collapse down the stretch. This is an overlay with the perception of the Mavericks and the fact the Kings won all three regular season meetings. Dallas did not exactly close strong down the stretch not counting the meaningless Memphis game as the Mavericks suffered three blowout losses, two at the red hot Clippers and the other at home against the Lakers in the return of Luka Doncic. Now they are back to playing a team on their own level and this number is in their wheelhouse as Dallas is 12-7 ATS when getting between 3 and 7.5 points. Dereck Lively II was hurt in January and missed two and a half months but has played four games since the start of April and while still progressing, his minutes should start amping up and he is a key player back at the right time. 10* (585) Dallas Mavericks

This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Tuesday Signature Enforcer. We went against Golden St. Sunday in a game against the Clippers in what looked like a tossup and with it going into overtime, that was proven and the Warriors came up small at home to get into this spot but they did get the top seed as all it takes is a win in one of two games to solidify a playoff spot. It is a quick turnaround following an overtime game just two days ago but they remain at home where they are now 24-17 including a pair of wins against Memphis. They have dropped three straight games at home and this atmosphere is going to be wild on Tuesday in what is an unfamiliar situation for Golden St. and covering this number should be no problem. The Grizzlies went 5-9 down the stretch and are in a situation they have failed miserably in going back 10 weeks. In February, March and April, Memphis played 12 games against Western Conference teams either locked in the playoffs or taking part in the play-in games and it went 2-10 with the two wins coming against Dallas, one coming in the final game of the regular season where starters did not take part and the other on March 7th where the Mavericks were shorthanded. The Grizzlies not only failed to win any of those 10 games but went 0-10 ATS, losing those games by an average of 13.5 ppg. 10* (580) Golden St. Warriors

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Sunday Signature Enforcer. The scenario is simple for Golden St. as a win here keeps it out of the play-in game and while a loss could still let the Warriors avoid it but it will also need a Minnesota loss which is unlikely with the Timberwolves being a 23-point home favorite. We have seen this line fluctuate as it opened at 4.5, got bet down to as low as two points and has been on the rise overnight into this morning with it currently back up to four points in most places. The Warriors will be the popular public take based on the notoriety along with playing at home but this is a tough matchup and laying anything over a possession is a bonus on the underdog. Golden State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after allowing 95 or fewer ppg. The situation is virtually the same for the Clippers as a win avoids the play-in game but a loss puts them in it with the likelihood of both Minnesota and Denver winning their games today. Los Angeles has won seven straight games to get in this position and while Golden St. is 23-8 since getting Jimmy Butler, the Clippers are 21-10 over that same stretch with the No. 5 ranked offense and the No. 7 defense. The Clippers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. 10* (569) Los Angeles Clippers

This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Friday Signature Enforcer. The Clippers concluded its regular season home schedule with five straight wins and have now won six straight overall but are still on the outside of the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference by virtue of losing the tiebreaker with Denver. They have a 21% chance of getting the spot but need to win out and have the Nuggets lose one game so it looks likely they will face Denver in the 4-5 series without home court. Los Angeles will be at full strength to win here and win at Golden St. with a day off in-between but covering is a different matter as this line is overadjusted with what is on the line. These teams played in Los Angeles a month ago, with the Clippers having Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, and are now favored by more on the road now than they were then. The Kings lost to Denver Wednesday but still have a one game lead over Dallas for the No. 9 spot which means a home game against the Mavericks on Tuesday should they win one more game so they will be going all out here. Sacramento is 10-1 in its last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 with a scoring differential of +8.8 ppg. 10* (534) Sacramento Kings

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our Western Conference Game of the Month. Memphis is coming off a home loss against Minnesota on Thursday which severely hurt its playoff positioning as it can now only control its own destiny for the No. 7 spot and it is the highest percentage team to now claim the No. 8 spot. The Grizzlies have an outside shot at No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6 but those percentages are 3%, 9% and 15% respectively and they need a lot of help. They are back on the road where they are 22-18 while coming in deflated and Memphis is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing against a team with a winning record with a scoring differential of -9.3 ppg while going 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games against teams averaging 116 or more ppg with a scoring differential of -13.1 ppg. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak with a win at Sacramento on Wednesday and is back home for its final regular season home game where it is 25-15. The Nuggets coaching change paid off after one game with clear effort as they committed only seven turnovers, the fewest since March 9th and now have the best shot for the No. 4 spot as 23% and control their own destiny to do so with a win here and a win at Houston Sunday who will not be playing their full starting roster. 10* (528) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Thursday Signature Enforcer. Atlanta lost its chance to get a home game in the 7-8 play-in game with a loss at Orlando which put it two games behind Orlando, now 2.5 games with the Magic win over Boston that gave them the No. 7 spot since they can finish no worse that with a series split with the Hawks and have clinched the best division record, but the Hawks still have plenty to play for. They are only a half-game ahead of Chicago and a game and a half ahead of Miami so they can still fall into the 9-10 spot so that puts them in a must win spot here and going forward. With that comes lines that are over adjusted which we have seen across the league the last week and this is one of the bigger ones. Atlanta played here three weeks ago and closed at -6.5, and lost outright, and on the season it has been a road favorite of two points or more eight times and has gone 2-6 ATS and this is foreign territory as the most it has been favored by is eight points. Brooklyn has gone 3-2 in its last five games and while that includes wins over no one, Atlanta is no elite team on the schedule where it should be an underdog of this amount. Since the end of January, the Nets have been double-digit home underdogs three times and those were against the Clippers, Timberwolves and Thunder, clearly a group where Atlanta does not belong. Atlanta is 13-34 ATS (28 percent) going back to last season off a road loss. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS -1.5 RUNLINE for our MLB Thursday Runline Sweet Spot. Minnesota is coming off a 4-0 shutout win on Wednesday which snapped a three-game losing streak and it moved to 4-8 overall. The Twins offense has been up and down and overall they are No. 27 in batting average, No. 29 in OBP, No. 27 in slugging percentage and No. 27 in wOBA and have a tough matchup today. The pitching has ranked out better but it is a wild card Thursday. Bailey Ober was solid last season from mid-June through mid-August but everything before and after was all over the place. He has been awful to start the season as he allowed eight runs in 2.2 innings at St. Louis and then went only four innings while throwing 84 pitches against Houston. He has a 12.15 ERA and 2.40 WHIP and Minnesota was 2-6 in his eight divisional road starts last season. Kansas City had a three-game winning streak snapped with the loss and we expect this offense to get going today. Michael Wacha has been as consistent as they come as he has posted ERAs of 3.32, 3.22 and 3.35 over the last three seasons covering 23, 24 and 29 starts respectively and he is now making his third start of 2025. Neither have been great as he only went four innings in his opener against Cleveland and then allowed four runs against Baltimore with the Royals losing both games and now he takes a step down against the Twins offense. He faced Minnesota only once last season when its offense was good and shut the Twins down over seven innings and the Royals are 5-0 against the runline in his five starts against American League teams averaging 4.4 rpg or fewer. 10* (910) Kansas City Royals -1.5 Runs

This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. This game can very well decide home court for the 9-10 play-in game with the winner going on the road to face the 7-8 loser in that play-in game. Both teams close the season with a pair of games against teams at the very bottom of the league so both should likely win out. Chicago and Miami both have 36-43 records with the Bulls holding onto the No. 9 seed by virtue of winning the season series against the Heat but this is the big one. The Bulls played last night as they lost by 22 points against the Cavaliers which were going for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and Chicago let them have it before tip as starters Coby White, Josh Giddey, Kevin Huerter and Nikola Vucevic were all out. Miami has won seven of nine games to get to this point including three road wins, one at Boston, but the other two were at Washington and Philadelphia and the Heat enter tonight 16-22 on the road which is actually a half-game better than Chicago is at home but they are the false favorite here. Here, we play against road teams revenging a home loss going up against an opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. This situation is 62-24 (72.1 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +5.1 ppg. 10* (566) Chicago Bulls

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. The Lakers are coming off a 16-point loss at Oklahoma City last night as a close game was changed when Luka Doncic was ejected on a phantom technical foul called by a look at me referee and the Thunder outscored Los Angeles 29-12 the rest of the way. They head to Dallas with a chip on their shoulder after that and the fact that Doncic will make his return to Dallas tonight to take on the Mavericks for the first time in Dallas. Los Angeles is now a game ahead of the Clippers for third place in the Western Conference which is the coveted spot as to not having to face the Thunder in the conference finals should they advance that far. Dallas is coming off a pair of blowout losses in Los Angeles against the Clippers but despite this, the Mavericks are just one win away from clinching a playoff berth thanks to the Suns cashing it in. Dallas will be ready for this game inside the game but this is a tough spot and with Toronto on deck at home, the clincher can come there. Dallas is 3-14 in 17 games this season after failing to cover four of their last five games. Here, we play on favorites playing on back-to-back days, in April games. This situation is 73-30 ATS (70.9 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +11.2 ppg. 10* (563) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS as part of our NBA Tuesday Double Play. Boston is coming off a pair of home blowout wins on Friday and Sunday and is now back on the road and this line is telling us everything we need to know. The Celtics have the No. 2 seed locked up and while they have a chance to match an NBA record for road wins a season with a win here and at Orlando tomorrow, health remains the most important factor. They plan to rest players down the stretch and the full roster will not be available tonight with all of the top six rotation players on the injury report. New York still has something to play for as it can lock up the No. 3 seed which may not seem different than a No. 4 seed but it can have implications but this game goes further than that for the Knicks. They have lost the first three meetings against the Celtics and additionally, they are 0-8 against the top three teams in the league, Cleveland, Boston and Oklahoma City so if nothing else, they need an elite quality win before the postseason for any sort of confidence. At 27-12 at home, they can prevent the possible Boston record and come in close to full strength with Jalen Brunson back in the lineup. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 120 points or more. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +8.8 ppg. 10* (546) New York Knicks

This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC as part of our NBA Tuesday Double Play. Winning a division in the NBA is not the same as the NFL or MLB where teams do not get a bump in the playoff seedings so the Southeast Division championship means little except for a banner but this division is tight enough where these games still count. Orlando has a one game lead over Atlanta and a two-game lead over Miami so a win here and a Chicago loss to Cleveland will keep the Magic out of the 9-10 matchup in the Play-In Tournament and come closer to securing a 7-8 home game matchup. They have Boston on deck tomorrow so this game is huge and the fact they have been off for four days gives them a big rest advantage which is huge this time of season. The Hawks were in this position that Orlando currently holds but lost three straight games prior to their win over Utah on Sunday. This game is big for them as well and while they have been a cover machine on the road as underdogs, those have come against the elite teams, they are just 2-4 on the road against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. This cements how the Hawks have played up and down to the competition this entire season. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +10.3 ppg. 10* (538) Orlando Magic

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RUNLINE as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play Sweeper. Los Angeles has been an early pleasant surprise as it has opened up 6-3, winning all three of its series in the process. The Angels have picked up their offense after a slow start as they have averaged 6.8 rpg over their last six games after putting up only five runs total in their first three games but they have a difficult matchup on Tuesday. The pitching has not been as good as the offense has bailed it out with their 4.59 xFIP which is No. 25 in baseball and they are ahead of only Milwaukee in Home Run Rate at 1.76 HR/9. Kyle Hendricks pitched his first ever game that was not with the Cubs as he went six innings against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on seven hits so it was an efficient opener but he will likely need a duplicate effort as the run support should not be there. Tampa Bay heads back home after getting swept in Texas and has now lost four straight games as the offense got handcuffed. They are still No. 10 in baseball in batting average and send Shane Baz to the hill who is coming off a great opener, allowing no runs on seven hits with no walks while striking out 10. This after a solid 2024 after getting put into the rotation as he posted a 3.06 ERA in 14 starts and the Rays are now 6-1 against the runline in his seven home starts. 10* (920) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Runs

This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS RL as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play Sweeper. Seattle opened the season with a 4-2 win over the Athletics but has dropped seven of its last nine games with both wins coming by one run so it has gone 1-5 on the run line when favored so we are going contrarian and getting a good number. The Mariners lost on a walk-off on Sunday 5-4 against the Giants two days after losing in 11 innings and they are back home with their No. 1 on the hill and in need of a breakout on offense. The Mariners are in the bottom third in the league in all hitting categories even though they have great plate discipline as they are No. 4 in BB/K Ratio. Logan Gilbert was dominant in his opener against the Athletics but went just five innings against Detroit and allowed three runs but struck out 10 and overall has an 18:1 K?BB Ratio. Going back the last three seasons, he has been as consistent as they come with a 3.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 98 starts with 601 strikeouts and 119 walks and of 155 starters since 2022 that have thrown at least 200 innings, he is No. 8 with a 4.89 K/BB Ratio. Houston came away with a series win over Minnesota as it rallied from a 7-1 deficit to win 9-7 in extra innings but this is a much tougher test. Hayden Wesneski was not overly efficient in his opener and while he only allowed two hits, one was a home run and he also issued three walks and comes into a tough one. 10* (966) Seattle Mariners Runline -1.5 Runs

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our NCAA Championship Ultimate Dominator. We have less than a one possession line in the championship game so there is no edge either way as there have been 26 championship games over the last 60 years with a spread of two points or less and the teams have gone 13-13 straight up and against the number. The Houston defense took over against Duke, holding the Blue Devils to 8 points over the final 8 minutes and that defense will be the difference again. They are No. 1 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in mucked up games, they do not lose as they are 33-0 when holding teams to fewer than 70 ppg and they have done this the last three games despite forcing only 23 total turnovers after coming in No. 12 in Defensive Turnover Rate. Now Houston catches a Florida team that has not taken care of the ball, turning it over 15 times per game over the last three games. It has been the Walter Clayton, Jr. show for the Gators as he has scored 34 and 30 points the last two games and his clutch shooting has lifted Florida to pull away late. Now comes the test against that No. 1 ranked defense after going against defenses over the last two games ranked No. 41 and No. 24 in Quad 1 games since February 1st. And it should be noted he was held to just 13 points against Maryland the previous game and the Terrapins No. 2 ranked defense. And do not think coaching does not matter as coaches that have a two-plus Final Four edge are 48-26 and Kelvin Sampson is still underrated. Houston comes in as the slight dog and is an underdog for the just eighth time since 2020 and it is 6-1. 10* (702) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our Nonconference Game of the Month. Denver has lost three straight games and it has been a rough stretch for the Nuggets as since a nine-game winning streak that ended in late February, they have gone 10-12 over their last 22 games and now things are starting to get real. They have a half-game lead over the Warriors for the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and sit just one game out of the play-in scenario so the bottom half is up for anyone to make the late move. Denver needs to take care of business at home where it has dropped two straight but one of those was with everyone sitting against the Spurs and that is a game that could haunt them. Denver is 12-1 in its last 13 games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg. Indiana has won three straight games and is a longshot to move into the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference as the Pacers trail the Knicks by three games with five games left including two against Cleveland. They are sitting Pascal Siakam which is a smart move at this point as rest and recoup are more important. Indiana is 2-10 in its last 12 games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more with a scoring differential of -7.4 ppg. 10* (528) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our Crown Tournament Annihilator. UCF has been the Cinderella of the College Basketball Crown Tournament as it has taken down two of the top seeds the last two games against Cincinnati and Villanova, the latter in overtime last night. The Knights have been carried by Darius Johnson who has put up 73 points the last two games as he has stepped up with the absence of Keyshawn Hall and the gameplan should be easy for Nebraska but it could be easier said than done. The Knights lost a lot of their roster as pointed out before but to their credit, they were able to adjust and plan with the three-week layoff and have now won five of their last six Quad 2 games with another coming here. Nebraska upset Boise St. prior to that game as it jumped ahead early and never looked back as it has yet to be really challenged in this tournament. The Huskers ended up 12-19 from behind the arc while Boise St. went just 9-27 from long range with both teams living and dying by the three-pointer all season and it went one way on Saturday. They cannot count on that again and are back in the role of favorites in a game that looks like a coin flip and we are catching over a possession. 10* (687) UCF Knights

This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Saturday Signature Enforcer. This is the second game of a two-game set in Los Angeles with the Clippers taking the first game last night by 23 points and we are seeing a two-possession line swing based on the Clippers most likely resting Kawhi Leonard as the training staff made it evident that playing Leonard on the front end would sideline him on the back end and the Mavericks having Anthony Davis available after sitting last night. Los Angeles has won three straight games to remain in a tie with Minnesota and Memphis for the No. 6 through No. 8 spots in the Western Conference and the goal is to grab the No. 6 seed to avoid the play-in but winning and covering are two different things and coming off a blowout already has the markets plugged with Clippers money. Dallas had won five of its previous seven games before last night and the Mavericks are still 2.5 games ahead of Phoenix for the final team out of the postseason but they are far from a lock based on the remaining schedule that includes games against the Lakers and Grizzlies. Dallas was a dreadful 2-20 from long range last night partly because Klay Thompson left after 12 minutes with an illness after taking just one three-pointer but should be ready here. Dallas is 4-0 on the road this season revenging a road loss. 10* (509) Dallas Mavericks

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our Final Four Dominator (Houston/Duke). Houston has the toughest matchup on paper but that actually benefits the Cougars in the betting markets as Duke will be getting all the public love as usual with an inflated line that has actually gone up despite 78 percent of the money coming in one Houston and none of this is public money yet. Houston rebounded from the scare against Purdue to dominate Tennessee from the start and its run has been incredible both recent and longer-term. The Cougars have won 17 straight games with their last loss coming in overtime by one point against Texas Tech and three of four losses have come in overtime and all four have been by five points or less. They are No. 1 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in mucked up games, they do not lose as they are 32-0 when holding teams to fewer than 70 ppg which is partly due to an underrated offense that is No. 11 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency since February 1st. Houston has covered five of its last six games as underdogs and this goes all the way back to 2020. Duke has all of the metrics to make it the best team in the country but a lot of it has come against the worst major conference in the country. The Blue Devils were dominant against Alabama but the Crimson Tide finished 7-6 down the stretch and were far from the test they will be seeing here. 10* (679) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our Crown Tournament Annihilator. Give a lot of credit to Nebraska which came into the College Basketball Crown Tournament with five straight losses so the 22 days off in-between the final loss in the Big 12 Tournament and the opener potentially benefitted them in order to get their game back together. The Huskers had no opt-outs so they came in with a full roster and got fortunate with the draw playing their first two games against teams that were short-handed. Most notably Georgetown which was down one starter coming in and then lost three more prior to their first game against Washington St., which they ended up winning, but it was too much to overcome against Nebraska. Both wins were Quad 2 and the Huskers are back in Quad 1 where they are 5-10 and having lost three straight. Boise St. rolled over George Washington and then defeated Butler by seven points in a game they led big throughout and were never really threatened. The Broncos remain in Quad 2 where they are 6-2 with all six wins coming by at least seven points. This is a team on a mission as their closing No. 44 NET Ranking was not good enough to get into the NCAA Tournament and they are using that as motivation. 10* (684) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS as part of our NBA Friday Double Play. Coming off an overtime loss against Minnesota on Tuesday, Denver cashed it in the next night against San Antonio as the Nuggets sat everyone which was probably a good spot to do so to heal up. The injury list is long again but we expect a full roster tonight in a big game as the Nuggets are clinging to a half-game lead over the Lakers for the all-important No. 3 spot in the Western Conference. They hit the road where they are 22-16 and the line is making a statement here and Denver comes in 6-1 this season coming off consecutive wins. Additionally, the Nuggets are 25-7 in their last 32 games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread with a scoring differential of +10.1 ppg. Golden St. is coming off a big win last night in Los Angeles to move one game behind the Lakers for fourth place in the conference. The Warriors are back home where they are 23-14 but that does include a 4-6 record as underdogs and have failed to cover eight of 12 games this season coming off an underdog outright win. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 71-30 ATS (70. percent) since 021 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (575) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS as part of our NBA Friday Double Play. Oklahoma City refuses to slow down as it clinched the top spot in the Western Conference long ago and has now reeled off 11 straight wins, the last four coming at home where the Thunder are 34-5 including two wins over Houston by 15 and 9 points. They are not much worse on the road at 29-7 but one of those losses was in Houston and during this recent winning streak, five of the wins have come on the road with three of those being one or two possession games. The Thunder are just 6-13 against the number on the road against teams with a winning record and this is obviously due to their lines being skewed in the markets. Houston is comfortably in the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference as it has a three-game lead over Denver with five games remaining and this game can go a long way for confidence. Additionally, the last four games are all against teams in current playoff positions in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 28-11 at home including a 3-1 record as home underdogs. Here, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 115 points or more in five straight games. This situation is 23-8 (74.2 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg. 10* (570) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Month. Golden St. is coming off a win at Memphis to make it three straight wins following a pair of losses at Atlanta and Miami to open its six-game roadtrip which concludes tonight. The Warriors are on a 19-5 run over their last 24 games which has pushed them from a fringe playoff team all the way up to No. 5 in the Western Conference but are still a half-game out of the No. 8 spot so there is little room for error. The Nuggets loss last night but them two games behind Denver for No. 4 so there is plenty at stake but this is not an ideal spot tonight. The Pacific Division has been the Achillies Heel with Golden St. going just 3-10 with two of those wins coming against reeling Sacramento. Los Angeles pulled away from Houston on Tuesday late grabbing the six-point win to make it two straight victories following a 1-4 stretch and have built a one game lead over Denver for the all-important No. 3 spot in the conference. The Lakers remain home where they are 29-9 and are 13-2 ATS against division opponents this season while going 16-3 at home following a home win. Here, we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season in a game involving two average teams averaging between 108 and 114 ppg, after a combined score of 235 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 38-4 (90.5 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +10.0 ppg and this includes a 9-0 record this season. 10* (560) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our NIT Championship Premium Winner. UC Irvine defeated North Texas in the NIT Semifinals by two points but a late three-pointer made that deficit shorter as the victory was never in doubt late. The Anteaters now have a school record 32 victories and there is just one goal left and that is a championship after getting snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee although they were further off the bubble with a No. 62 NET Ranking. Still, it has been a very successful season and even though they are laying over a possession, the value is there as we have this one at 6 points and the NET Ranking difference is 53 spots which is a significant amount and one that should make this line bigger. Chattanooga is on a roll as it has won 16 of its last 17 games with the only loss coming against Furman by three points in overtime in the Southern Conference Tournament. The Mocs pulled away in the second half with an efficient performance and while they come in a perfect 6-0 in Quad 2 games, all were against teams with NET Rankings lower than the Anteaters and the three best wins were two by two points and in overtime and the other on their home floor. UC Irvine has the intangibles with a much stronger defense (No. 6 to No. 190) in Effective Field Goal% and (No. 42 to No. 227) in Rebound Rate. 10* (674) UC Irvine Anteaters

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Thursday Signature Enforcer. We had Memphis on Tuesday and we got Curried as Steph put up 52 points including 12 three-pointers as the Grizzlies held a lead with under four minutes remaining but could not pull it out down the stretch. Through February 19th, Memphis was in second place in the Western Conference but since then it has gone 8-14 and has dropped into eighth place. This includes four straight losses that started with a fourth quarter meltdown at Oklahoma City, the last game for then head coach Taylor Jenkins, and then followed up with three home losses, albeit against the Lakers, Celtics and Warriors and have a great matchup here. Memphis is 11-0 ATS on the road this season against teams forcing 13 or fewer turnovers per game with a scoring differential of +14.4 ppg. Miami has now won six straight games following the outright upset in Boston last night which pretty much eliminated the Celtics from the top spot in the Eastern Conference and the Heat have put themselves just a game and a half out of first place in the Central Division. Overall, they are in the No. 9 spot in the conference and can certainly catch either Orlando or Atlanta or both but this is a tough spot off that win in Boston and they are 3-6 ATS off an upset win. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in April games. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg. 10* (555) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our Crown Thursday Signature Enforcer. UCF was able to sneak past Oregon St. by a point as it got a good matchup and still narrowly won. The Beavers were out three of their top four scorers and went only 4-19 from long range but were able to hang around and that tells a lot more about the Knights more than anything. On their end, they were without Keyshawn Hall, who led the team with 18.8 ppg and 7.8 rpg, as he entered the transfer portal and has already committed to Auburn and he is one of eight players on the roster that are out. The majority are role players with little playing time but it is a depth issue as UCF went with just an eight-player rotation and were fortunate getting only tagged with 15 fouls. They now move up to Quad 1 where they are 3-11 which includes eight straight losses. Cincinnati was a major disappointment this season as it came in looking to contend in the Big 12 Conference but after a 10-1 nonconference start, the Bearcats opened 0-4 and 2-8 through 10 games and they were done. Their issue was also Quad 1 games where they went 3-12, one win at UCF by 10 points, but now go down to Quad 2 where they are 7-3. 10* (676) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. Boston has won nine straight games and this is bad news for the rest of the Eastern Conference heading into the playoffs as the Celtics are coming out of their championship hangover slumber and will want to keep rolling as they head into the postseason. Going back to the playoffs last season, Miami won Game Two of the First Round series to tie it up and Boston has not let up since then, winning the final three games by 20, 14 and 34 points and has taken the first three games this season by 19, 18 and 12 points while covering all six games and we will not back off this train. Miami has won five straight games to position itself firmly in the postseason but likely will not be moving up past the No. 9 spot with a tough upcoming stretch. The Heat have won five straight games including two straight on the road but those two were against Washington and Philadelphia and remain a half-game ahead of Chicago and 6.5 games clear of Toronto which is close to being eliminated. The Heat are 2-8 ATS on the road this season coming off a road win. Here, we play against underdogs revenging a same season loss, off a road win against a division rival. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (538) Boston Celtics

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. We are going contrarian with the Knicks as a win here goes a long way, not in the standings but for confidence. They are 0-7 against the top three teams in the league, Cleveland, Boston and Oklahoma City and this is a well-publicized fact and we are getting value because of it. New York is getting double digits and we have this line at 7 which is actually the same number it was getting in the last matchup here just over a month ago with some of the adjustment due to Jalen Brunson being out but motivation should go a long way here. Cleveland is getting closer to clinching the top seed in the Eastern Conference as it has a four-game lead over the Celtics but it is pretty much a given based on the remaining schedule and the Cavaliers probability of taking the conference is 97.3 percent. Since their 16-game winning streak, the Cavaliers are just 4-5 over their last nine games while going 2-7 ATS in those games and looking back further, they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games laying 10 or more points. Here, we play against teams after allowing 115 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 10 points or more. This situation is 152-87 ATS (63.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +7.5 ppg. 10* (535) New York Knicks

This is a play on the VILLANOVA WILDCATS for our Crown Tuesday Signature Enforcer. While we see plenty of interim head coaches in college football bowl games, Villanova is in a very unique basketball situation where it is playing in a postseason tournament with an interim head coach as Mike Nardi takes over for the fired Kyle Neptune and we love the situation. The Wildcats got the invite for the College Basketball Crown by being one of the top two remaining Big East Conference teams not already linked to another tournament. The additional time on the court gives forward Eric Dixon the chance to become the all-time leading scorer in program history as he need nine points so this will be a fired up team that has not been affected by the transfer portal with only reserve Nnanna Njoku not taking part. Villanova is 5-4 in Quad 2 games with three of those losses coming in true road games with the other loss coming against Creighton by two points. Colorado played better down the stretch with a pair of Big 12 Tournament win but the Buffaloes are 14-20 with eight of those wins in Quad 3 and Quad 4. Because of the conference affiliation with FOX, they get in despite a 3-17 conference record. 10* (666) Villanova Wildcats

This is a play on the CHICAGO BULLS for our Eastern Conference Game of the Month. Toronto was on a four-game losing streak following a 34-point loss against San Antonio but it has won four straight games since then including three of those coming on the road. The four wins were against Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Philadelphia so that is not saying much and while Chicago is no juggernaut, it least it is playing for something still. The Raptors remain on the road where they are just 11-26 despite the recent three-game run and catch the Bulls at the wrong time. Chicago has lost two straight games following a 28-point loss at Oklahoma City on Monday. This followed a four-game winning streak and while sitting at 33-42 overall, the Bulls are sitting in the No. 10 spot in the Eastern Conference and are close to clinching a playoff berth as they are five games up on Toronto. They are still alive to move up to No. 8 as they are just two and a half games behind Orlando and it is more than doable with six of their final seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (526) Chicago Bulls

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Tuesday Signature Enforcer. We lost with the Grizzlies on Saturday and they fell again on Monday against Boston as the firing of head coach Taylor Jenkins is looking like a mistake. However, we think this is the rebound game as they finally turn the corner against this gauntlet of games. Memphis has struggled since the NBA All-Star break and has lost six of its past seven games but is still sitting No. 5 in the Western Conference. They are still 25-13 at home and now this is the final home games of this homestand before hitting the road for three straight games. Golden St. rolled past San Antonio on Sunday for its second straight win after a two-game slide. The Warriors are 20-17 on the road and have struggled laying points, going 9-11 against the number including a 3-6 ATS mark when laying six points or less. This is a big game for Golden St. as well as they are trying to avoid any sort of play-in scenario as they are in the No. 7 spot in the Western Conference but we do not like this spot in the middle of a big travelling roadtrip. 10* (522) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our NIT Tuesday Dominator. North Texas was able to escape a late rally from Oklahoma St. to make it to the NIT Final Four in search of its second NIT title in three years. The Mean Green used its tenacious defense to advance as they held the Cowboys to 59 points and they have held all three NIT opponents to 64 points or less. This is an athletic team that is all over the floor and they come in 5-2 in Quad 2 games, both losses on the road by eight points combined. North Texas is 27-8 overall with three losses coming in Quad 1 games and even those were close, coming by an average of 5.0 ppg which is the same number of their largest loss of the entire season with the exception of their American Athletic Conference loss to UAB. UC Irvine had the luxury of hosting its first three NIT games and it was able to escape in overtime against UAB by four points to get here and is now it leaves California for the first time since the end of December, not counting a trip to Hawaii. To its credit, UC Irvine was extremely solid on the road but again, those trips were not far. he Anteaters had trouble with the athleticism of UAB and the same will take place here. 10* (657) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the GEORGETOWN HOYAS for our Crown Monday Signature Enforcer. Georgetown and Washington St. meet in the final game on Monday from Las Vegas and we have seen little line movement despite the Cougars coming in shorthanded. Washington St. lost two key pieces to the transfer portal as Nate Calmese (15.2 ppg) and Isaiah Watts (11.0 ppg) are gone, the former earning all-WCC honorable mention honors this season. With those two out, expect to see more of redshirt freshman Parker Gerrits and true freshman Tomas Thrastarson and those two combined for just 5.8 ppg. They are 3-5 in Quad 2 games while going 1-2 in neutral court games, the only win coming against UNI way back in December. Georgetown has more to build on in this the second year of head coach Ed Cooley so the Hoyas took advantage of this invite. They closed the season in disappointing fashion, losing a pair of games to DePaul to close the regular season and in the first round of the Big East Tournament and thy will be the more motivated team here. 10* (655) Georgetown Hoyas

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Monday Double Play. The Rockets came away with a 39-point win at Phoenix last night and this is the spot to go against. We played against Houston, more so of a play on Phoenix which at this point looks like it wants the season to just end, and with the win has now won 12 of its last 13 games to remain in the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference, two games ahead of Denver. As mentioned, the best win was at Orlando which was better than the Suns win no matter the scoring differential. The Lakers are back home following a 2-2 roadtrip culminating with a seven-point win at Memphis on Saturday and they are still fighting to remain in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference. More important, they are just a game and a half out of No. 3 which would avoid Oklahoma City until the conference finals. The Lakers are 11-2 this season coming off a win as an underdog while going 9-0 ATS at home following losses in four or five of their last six games. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game going up against an opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +10.0 ppg. 10* (516) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS as part of our NBA Monday Double Play. Miami has played itself into the play-in tournament and by that meaning a 10-game losing streak from March 5-21 knocked them out of contention of avoiding it as they can no longer move out. The Heat have won four straight games since then which includes a solid win over Golden St. but the Warriors were without Steph Curry and now come in as big road favorites. They can finish as high as No. 7 or as low as No. 10 with nowhere outside to go and getting to No. 8, they will have to make up 2.5 games and pass Orlando. Washington has lost two straight and seven of its last eight games and while the word tanking is always thrown out, their players are not tanking for their own benefit. The Wizards have the worst home record in the NBA so the line is what it is for a reason but it is overreaction and overadjusted based on the time of year. Washington is 10-1 ATS this season following two straight home losses. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season against the money line shooting between 45.5 percent and 47.5 percent and after allowing 50 percent shooting or higher going up teams allowing between 45.5 percent and 47.5 percent shooting. This situation is 47-15 (75.8 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +6.5 ppg. 10* (508) Washington Wizards

This is a play on the BUTLER BULLDOGS for our Crown Monday Afternoon Dominator. Butler is one of the few teams in the College Basketball Crown that will come into the tournament intact as the Bulldogs only lost player to the transfer portal. On top of that, they have learned that head coach Thad Matta will be back and that has brought a sense of unity to the roster, namely the top three scorers led by forward Jahmyl Telfort who is an NBA talent and can showcase some more. While they are just 4-6 in Quad 2 games, three of those losses were by one or two possessions and against teams with higher NET Rankings than Utah as well as three against NCAA Tournament teams. Butler closed on a 1-5 run to end the season so nothing better than having 18 days off to let that settle in to get it back. Utah put together a 5-3 run in January and February but lost seven of its final ten games following that and while the same can be said about time off to let that go, the Utes are coming in with a depleted roster. They are down seven players including four that averaged 18 or more minutes. 10* (650) Butler Bulldogs

This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. Houston has won 11 of its last 12 games to move into the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference, a game and a half ahead of Denver. While the run is impressive, the best win was at Orlando and of those 11 wins, only four have been on the road, the others coming against New Orleans, Miami and Utah. Elite teams win these games and the Rockets are approaching that status but now comes a test against a team in desperation mode. The Suns have lost two straight games and this is the fifth of 10 straight games against teams No. 13 or better in championship odds so taking care of these home games is a must. They are 23-14 at home and have gone 6-1 ATS after failing to cover three or more consecutive games. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .450 and .550with a moneyline of +135 to -155 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 44-16 (73.3 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg and includes an 8-0 record this season. While it is a moneyline situation, Phoenix is getting points. 10* (572) Phoenix Suns

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES as part of our NBA Sunday Double Play. Detroit has won three straight games including an 11-point upset at home against Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog which sets up a letdown possibility hitting the road. More impressively, the Pistons did it without Cade Cunningham who was out with a calf injury and he is doubtful again tonight. They are 21-16 on the road which matches their home record but this is a tough situation likely shorthanded and Detroit is 5-10 ATS coming off an upset win as an underdog. Minnesota is coming off a win over Phoenix and is just 2-3 in its last five games following an eight-game winning streak. The Timberwolves remain in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference but are just three games out of fourth place so they have an opportunity to move up as many as four spots and ultimately avoid the play-in tournament. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points going against an opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 49-17 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +11.0 ppg. 10* (568) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Elite 8 Game of the Year. Even though Michigan St. was outplayed against Mississippi for most of the Sweet 16 matchup, the Spartans took over when it counted and they should have gotten the cover but a last second thud three-pointer gave the Rebels the cover. This is the first time since late February that Michigan St. is an underdog in a game and while the Spartans are getting points for a reason, they have not been affected by it, winning five of seven games outright including five of their last six. Michigan St. is one of the most balanced teams you will find and while Jase Richardson has started to take control of this team, the Spartans go ten-deep and have seven players averaging between 7.0 and 12.7 ppg. They only went with an eight-player rotation against Mississippi but that was due to matchup and size, where the Rebels had none. Auburn made too many mistakes in the first half against Michigan while the defense struggled against the size and the Spartans bring a tough matchup. The Tigers can run away against anyone but this has not been the same team down the stretch and laying too many points. 10* (645) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our Elite 8 Sunday Enforcer. Houston remains in the shadow of the other No. 1 seeds despite being the hottest team in the country as after starting 4-3, the Cougars have won 29 of 30 games since then with the only loss coming against Texas Tech at home in overtime by one point. They have won 16 straight games since then including going 11-0 in Quad 1 games and now laying a short number, they will be a public favorite with the early big money coming in on Tennessee dropping the number from the 4 opener. Tennessee had no issues with Kentucky and has rolled through the Midwest Region and are now the underdog where the Volunteers are 4-2 ATS on the season. Houston escaped Purdue as it lost a seven-point lead in the second half to win on a last second shot and this is a matchup it did not want to see as these teams are near identical and we are catching over a possession in some spots. Tempo, Offensive and Defensive Efficiency and Rebound Rate are all in line so the edges the Cougars had against Purdue, namely a big rebounding advantage, they will not have here and still barely got by. 10* (647) Tennessee Volunteers

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our Elite 8 Saturday Enforcer. Alabama played a prototypical NBA game against BYU as it took 51 three-pointers and just 15 two-pointers while making 25 of those long balls (49 percent) and we certainly are not expecting that again, while the same game plan will likely be in play. Whether that is good or bad, it will all depend on how successful they are from behind the arc because they came in shooting just 34.7 percent from long range this month. As mentioned in the BYU analysis, if Alabama gets hot, it can beat anyone in the country but when playing its averages, it is as vulnerable as anyone and it is No. 348 Turnover Rate on defense is a huge concern and they forced only 11 BYU turnovers. The Blue Devils allow only 61 ppg and ranked No. 4 in defensive field-goal percentage and is No. 2 in Effective Field Goal% Defense. Offensively, Duke can beat teams anywhere and a strength that Alabama cannot take advantage of as it is No. 16 in Turnover Rate. Recency bias is going to have Alabama more popular than normal in this spot and we do not see a repeat of Thursday. 10* (642) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our Western Conference Game of the Month. Memphis head coach Taylor Jenkins became the second NBA coach to be fired this season with a lot of backlash behind it but it was a locker room decision as much as the Grizzlies not playing well of late. Memphis has struggled since the NBA All-Star break and has lost four of its past five games but is still sitting No. 5 in the Western Conference with a chance to move to No. 4 with a win tonight. This is the spot to back the Grizzlies with the coaching bump as well as coming back home where they are 25-11 following a five-game roadtrip. The Lakers conclude a four-game roadtrip following a last second loss at Chicago where it blew a five-point lead with 12.6 second remaining. That was a bad look and we will fade Los Angeles again on the road where it is 16-20. When looking at luck metrics, there is a big variance in this game as the Lakers remain No. 1 in the Luck Ratings while Memphis is No. 26. 10* (556) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our Elite 8 Saturday Dominator. Texas Tech came into the season as a sleeper Final Four team and it showed on Thursday it has the mettle to be just that. The Red Raiders rallied from a 16-point deficit midway through the second half to force overtime and while they fell short of the cover, we are backing them again in a 12-point line swing. Texas Tech has been an underdog of more than 4.5 points only one this season and that resulted in an outright win at Houston. The Red Raiders took 32 three-pointers against Arkansas but hit only 25 percent from long range but made them when they needed to and we expect better results. It was expected that Chance McMillian would return after missing three game but he was ruled out right before tipoff so he gets an extra couple days to try and make it happen to play in San Francisco, 30 minutes from his hometown. Florida is coming off a game in where it outrebounded Maryland 42-20 and outscored the Terrapins 21-9 in second-chance points. Texas Tech thrives down low as well so the Gators will not have the same rebounding edge. 10* (643) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the AUBURN TIGERS for our Sweet 16 Friday Supreme Annihilator. This is a bad matchup for Michigan from a prep standpoint based on its opponents as there is extra time here to get ready for Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf and the unique pick and roll style from a pair of seven-footers. UC San Diego held the duo to 23 points with extra preparation and then Texas A&M had no answers two days later as they went off for 37 points. Now Auburn has had extended time and slowing them down will be huge because of two big additional factors of the Wolverines offense. They turn the ball over at a ridiculous clip as they are No. 332 in Turnover Rate, Texas A&M could not take advantage, whereas Auburn can. Also, Michigan has been ice cold from long range, shooting 25 percent in the first two games after coming in shooting 27.5 percent since February 1st, tied for No. 349 in the country. The Wolverines have seven Quad 1 losses, the last five coming by an average of 16.7 ppg. Auburn is now 17-5 in Quad 1 games following the Creighton win, snapping a 1-3 skid, and the timing for this one pulls them away. 10* (634) Auburn Tigers

This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS as part of our NBA Friday Double Play. Charlotte was involved in a back and forth game with Orlando but the Magic pulled away late for the cover and the Hornets have now dropped three straight games. They are back on the road where they are 7-28 and while they have covered more than half of these games, the roster will be light tonight with LaMelo Ball out because of an ankle injury. Toronto has won two straight games following a 30-point win at Brooklyn with a depleted starting lineup and while R.J. Barrett will sit tonight, the Raptors will have Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup after resting on Wednesday. Toronto is now 7-3 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season after three or more consecutive unders, averaging between 108 and 114 ppg going up against teams averaging between 104 and 108 ppg. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +10.6 ppg. 10* (532) Toronto Raptors

This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS as part of our NBA Friday Double Play. The Clippers are coming off a 13-point win in New York over the Knicks so based on that one result, this line makes sense but looking at the grand scope, this is a huge overlay. They have won six of seven games but are now in a letdown/lookahead spot coming off the MSG win and having a game at Cleveland on deck. Kawhi Leonard logged over 40 minutes so if there is going to be a night of rest, this will be it with the Cavaliers up next. Brooklyn is coming off a loss against Toronto on Wednesday which made it five straight losses and this is a great number to get behind with the Nets going 11-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. Even though it was two months ago, the Nets have not forgotten a 59-point loss in Los Angeles Here, we play on underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of -0.4 ppg. 10* (534) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the KENTUCKY WILDCATS for our Sweet 16 Friday Ultimate Underdog. One very common angle come conference tournament time and lesser so, in the NCAA Tournament, is that it is hard to beat a team three times in a season but a lot of it comes down to matchups. A key factor in both wins for the Wildcats was three-point shooting as they went 24-48 (50 percent) while the Volunteers were 14-63 (22.2 percent) and while this likely will not happen again for Tennessee, they are not a great three-point shooting team, No. 138 overall and on the other side while the perimeter defense is solid, they allow a ton of shots, No. 339 in Three-Point Shooting Rate. Since December 11th, Kentucky is 16-10 following a couple games where it was without point guard Lamont Butler and while that record is not overly impressive, of those 26 games, he was also out seven games and the Wildcats went 2-5 so they are 14-5 down the stretch with him in the lineup which includes a 9-4 record in Quad 1 games. The majority of the money is on Tennessee yet the line has come down from opening and we will back the reverse line move. 10* (639) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Sweet 16 Game of the Year. The Spartans came into the season ranked out the Blue Ribbon top 25 and picked to finish No. 6 in the Big Ten Conference but look at them now, a legitimate National Championship contender. Michigan St. has two big edges which become even greater when dealing with a short number. The Spartans have the significantly better defense as they are No. 22 in Effective Field Goal% Defense since February 1st while Mississippi is tied for No. 318 over the same stretch. While that defensive discrepancy is massive, bolstering that is the rebounding advantage. On the season overall, the Spartans are No. 3 in Rebound Rate while the Rebels are No. 303 and looking at the numbers from the start of February, Michigan St. is No. 52 in Offensive Rebounding Percentage and No. 9 in Defensive Rebounding Percentage while Mississippi is No. 310 and No. 264 respectively. They are 10-1 in their last 11 Quad 1 games while the Rebels are only 5-8 in their last 13 in the quadrant with only one loss by fewer than five points. 10* (636) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our Sweet 16 Thursday Late Powerhouse. Texas Tech has gotten a decent draw through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament facing a pair of mid-Majors but it was able to win in two different ways, both turning into runaway wins. The Red Raiders took 46 three-pointers against UNC Wilmington which was a huge number but it took what it was given and followed that up by taking only 14 shots from long range against Drake as they pounded it inside to JT Toppin and Darrion Williams, again taking what was given. These two styles shows it can adjust and play with anyone and caught another good break here having to face Arkansas which has a much different style than St. John’s and one that favors Texas Tech. Even better news is that Chance McMillian looks to be on the road to coming back and adds another element to the offense with his 14.2 ppg and he will give it all he has with game being in San Francisco, 30 minutes from his hometown. The Arkansas story has been nice but its inconsistent half-court offense cannot keep up here, especially against an elite defense. 10* (630) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Sweet 16 Thursday Signature Enforcer. Coming into the tournament, Maryland brought in arguably the best starting five and we still feel that is the case. The Terrapins have been fortunate where all five have played all 35 games so they have been healthy and have been able to stay out of foul trouble over the second half of the season and the latter is not an issue here as Florida is not a team that initiates contact and goes to the line as it is No. 233 in Free Throw Rate. Maryland has one of lowest minutes from the bench in the country so any foul issues and they can be done but this far in, they are fine. The Terrapins are 9-7 in Quad 1 games which is not great on paper but those seven losses have all been by five points or less and by an average of 3.1 ppg so the margins are all in our favor. The Gators are off just a two-point win over Connecticut as it did not lead for over the first 17 minutes of the second half but were able to pull away for its eighth straight win. Now they have a test facing a team with little depth off four days of rest and laying a big number that is publicly inflated. 10* (631) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Sweet 16 Thursday Ultimate Underdog. BYU is a bad matchup for Alabama and the Crimson Tide are good matchup for the Cougars based on their styles. BYU has won 11 of its last 12 games with the lone loss coming against Houston which was able to slow it down and muck it up to hold the Cougars to only 54 points which was a season low behind a 55-point performance back in January, also against Houston so that has been the matchup that has been the most troublesome. They like to run and shoot and Alabama will gladly give them that and this team is ranked No. 4 in the country at BartTorvik since this 12-game run that started on February 11th. This includes an 8-1 run against Quad 1 teams and while their defense can be an issue at times, they now face an Alabama teams that is shooting just 34.7 percent from long range this month. If Alabama gets hot, it can beat anyone in the country but when playing its averages, it is as vulnerable as anyone and its No. 348 Turnover Rate on defense is a huge concern with the Cougars not feeling much resistance. 10* (627) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. Boston is coming off a win over Sacramento on Monday which made it six straight wins for the Celtics but did suffer a loss against the Kings with Jayson Tatum going down with an ankle sprain. This actually could work in their favor as shutting him down for a week or more could benefit them in the long run as rest is never a bad thing especially with Boston already locked into the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference. Phoenix is hanging in there as it has won four straight games to remain in the No. 10 spot in the Western Conference and it is part of a three-team race with Sacramento and Dallas which are all separated by a half-game for the two final playoff spots. The Suns issue has been the road where they are 12-24 but a near flip at 23-13 at home. Here, we play on home teams after two or more consecutive wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive wins. This situation is 48-20 (70.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +3.9 ppg. 10* (512) Phoenix Suns

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our NIT Game of the Year. UC Irvine has held serve on its home floor with wins over Northern Colorado and Jacksonville St. to improve to 12-2 at home and has the benefit of a third straight home game to open the NIT. We have seen the line come down considerably from the first two games despite the Anteaters facing three teams relatively similar in NET Rankings, going from No. 122 to No. 114 to now No. 106. They come in with their own ranking of No. 62 and while this season overall has not gone as expected, mostly due to UC San Diego have been more dominant, winning this championship would be a great compensation. The Anteaters have been solid at the free throw line this season as they are shooting 80.6 percent which is No. 3 in the country and this is huge in all of these postseason tournaments. UAB has pulled off a pair of road wins to get here, winning at St. Joseph’s and Santa Clara both by four points, the latter following a 17-point deficit. The Blazers got a tough draw having to play in California three days later so even having the option to remain on the road to avoid extra travel is not an advantage being away from home. We have this number at 7 so there is a significant edge. 10* (622) UC Irvine Anteaters

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS as part of our NBA Wednesday Double Play. The Clippers had their five-game winning streak snapped with a two-point loss at home against Oklahoma City on Sunday and with the cover, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games which is certainly affecting this number. They are back on the road where they are 15-20 while going just 14-21 against the number and have struggled with the fringe lines, going 3-6 when the line is between +3 and -3. New York has won two straight games and while those were against Washington and Dallas, they were needed by snapping a two-game slide. The Knicks have won three straight home games to improve to 24-11 which is the third best home record in the Eastern Conference. They currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference and likely now only have to worry about Indiana catching them with the Pacers three games back. Here, we play on teams revenging a loss of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite. This situation is 63-27 (70 percent) with a scoring differential of +5.4 ppg. 10* (506) New York Knicks

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CBB Tuesday NIT Signature Enforcer. At 15-17, Oklahoma St. got the surprise call from the NIT but the Cowboys are a better team than that record indicates coming out of the Big 12 Conference and they have showed that in the NIT. They finished last in the conference in NET Ranking but still a respectable No. 95 as their 1-14 Quad 1 mark hurt the record overall showing they could not play with the big boys, especially on the road where they are 3-10 but come in 13-3 at home. All three home losses were against teams No. 12 or better in NET Ranking. One key factor they have improved upon as the season has gone along is free throw shooting with nearly a quarter of its offense coming on free throws. The Cowboys lead the conference in free throw rate at No. 19 while sitting No. 16 in both attempts and made free throws. North Texas hits the road for the first time in the NIT after home victories over Furman and Arkansas St., the latter on a last-second jumper. The Mean Green are 7-5 on the road with the only quality win coming at Minnesota but that was all the way back in November. 10* (612) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE HORNETS for our NBA Div. Game of the Month. Kudos to Orlando which took out the Lakers last night as they pulled away with a big third quarter and finished with only eight turnovers for the game. It is now letdown time for the Magic which hit the road and are in the rare situation of being a home underdog and then going into the role of a road favorite on close to a 10-point swing. Orlando is now just a game and a half behind Atlanta in the Southeast Division carrying a 15-21 road record while going only 4-7 in the second game of a back-to-back. Charlotte has dropped two straight games following road losses at Oklahoma City and Miami by way of blowouts and returns home where it has not been good at 11-25 but the spreads are made for a reason and the Hornets are 19-11-1 ATS as home underdogs. Here, we play on home teams off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival going up against an opponent off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +6.5 ppg. 10* (566) Charlotte Hornets

This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS as part of our NBA Monday Double Play. Since a home loss against Oklahoma City, Boston has rolled off five straight wins albeit against just one teams currently in a playoff spot and that is Miami which was in the midst of a 10-game losing streak. The Celtics have won four straight road games where they are now 28-7 and have actually been better on the highway than at home, sitting 4.5 games better. They do remain overpriced and are just 8-19 ATS coming off a road win while continuing to deal with key injuries, namely Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holliday. It has been a tough stretch for Sacramento which has lost two straight games and six of its last eight although the two wins mixed in there were against Memphis and Cleveland. The Kings have covered 10 of 16 games against teams outscoring opponents by three of more ppg. Here, we play on home teams off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 43-16 (72.9 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +7.0 ppg. 10* (562) Sacramento Kings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Monday Double Play. The Lakers put out a D-League roster on Thursday against Milwaukee , never having a lead while trailing by as many as 35 points in a 29-pojnt loss. They got LeBron James back into the lineup on Saturday for his first game since March 8th and it resulted in an embarrassing loss by 31 points at home as 10.5-point favorites. They are now back on the road where they are on a four-game skid and now in a great bounce back situation. Orlando is coming off a win over Washington on Friday and is now just two games behind Atlanta for first place in the Southeast Division. The Magic have had their struggles against the Western Conference, winning just seven of 25 games and they are only 2-10 as home underdogs this season. Here, we play on road favorites revenging a home loss, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +10.7 ppg. 10* (549) Los Angeles Lakers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CBB Sunday Late Powerhouse. We loved Oregon coming into the NCAA Tournament and love them in this spot after blowing out Liberty. Oregon was on an eight-game winning streak before running into Michigan St. in the Big Ten Tournament but that was just a small bump in the road and the Ducks came back with that win over the Flames. They have a big travel edge as this game is being played in Seattle and the Ducks will also have the big advantage in the crowd especially with this being the final game of the night once again. They are 8-2 in Quad 2 games including five straight wins. Arizona is off a blowout win over Akron which definitely gave them some much needed confidence but that big win is having them overvalued with a lot of that based on name and the number. A short line is putting the public on Arizona but we are seeing a reverse line move and the wildcats come in having lost 14 of their last 26 games coming off a double-digit win outright. 10* (871) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our CBB Sunday Signature Enforcer. We won with Colorado St. on Friday as the Rams have now covered 11 straight games and now is the time to get off them. Memphis committed 16 turnovers and the Rams will not have that luxury against arguably the most underrated team in the country. Maryland does not turn the ball over as it is No. 36 in the country in Turnover Rate with the best starting five that has played every game, the only team to have this luxury. Colorado St. has won four straight Quad 1 games after a 0-5 start and before Memphis, two of those were against Boise St. which did not get in the tournament and the other against Utah St. which got hammered by UCLA. The Terrapins absolutely controlled a very good Grand Canyon team and while they move up to Quad 1, they are 8-4 in their last 12 Quad 1 games with the four losses by nine points combined and all against Big Ten Conference teams. This is the smash spot for Maryland. 10* (870) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the ST. MARY’S GAELS for our Round 2 Game of the Year. St. Mary’s was able to get past Vanderbilt as it overcame a 12-point deficit in the second half to pull off a narrow three-point win and now faces another Southeastern Conference team and this one comes down to tempo. This is the lowest total posted for Alabama all season and that is where the underdog has the edge. The Gales have failed to cover five straight games and that is where the value comes in as we have them as a three-point dog and speaking of threes, they got by the Commodores despite shooting just 28 percent from long range, a game after going 0-16 from deep against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship game. Alabama was never in control against Robert Morris despite playing the game it wanted to and that was fast. The Crimson Tide were able to put up 90 points on 59 percent shooting and still won by only nine points and that was against a team willing to run with them. They will not have that edge here with the Gaels looking to muck it up and keep it slow with points being the premium. 10* (861) St. Mary’s Gaels

This is a play on the CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS for our CBB Saturday Signature Enforcer. This is a great clash that Auburn has not really seen yet this season. Creighton took out a Louisville team that may have been considered overrated in a bad conference but this is a team that can make some noise based on its style which is unique. The Bluejays are No. 2 in the country in 2-Point% at 60.7 percent as they go to the rim to get the easy buckets but that sets up the three-point ball as they are No. 11 in the country in three-point shooting rate and with the easy outs, they are a tough matchup. Defensively, they take advantage of their length and athleticism as they are 12-1 against teams that take 21 or more three-pointers per game. Auburn pulled away from Alabama St. with a 20-point win but it was a competitive game for the majority. The Tigers came into the NCAA Tournament going 1-3 in their previous four games yet were still the top overall seed and the markets have caught up and have failed to cover five straight after a great mid-season run. They are on upset alert here with this matchup and are laying close to double-digits against a team that has been an underdog of four or more points eight times, going 6-1-1 ATS in those games., 10* (819) Creighton Bluejays

This is a play on the DRAKE BULLDOGS for our CBB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. Drake came through on Thursday against a Power 6 team and we are backing them again based on the fact winning is contagious no matter the opponent. Under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who came over from Division II and was named MVC Coach of the Year this season, Drake is in a position to make a run similar to what we thought two years ago but coughed up a late lead in the first round against Miami. Drake has now played eight neutral site games this season and is 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in those games and is 3-0 in Quad 1 games, wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas St. before the Missouri victory. Texas Tech is a very popular No. 3 seed to make the Final Four but this offense remains an issue to go along with no depth. The Red Raiders shot just 39 percent from the floor but were efficient with only six turnovers but now they face a defense that is ranked No. 16 in the country in Turnover Rate defensively. They went seven deep against UNC Wilmington and a tougher test here awaits with an overpriced number with the Red Raiders now failing to cover all six neutral court games this season. 10* (825) Drake Bulldogs

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CBB Saturday Star Attraction. It was a second straight day for the favorites rolling in the NCAA Tournament with 13 of the 16 chalk teams winning after 12 taking their games on Thursday and we are seeing the lines for Saturday reflecting that. St. John’s won by 30 over Omaha with a 19-point closing line and now comes a great coaching matchup. The Red Storm have been one of the best covers team in the country as they are now 22-12-1 against the number following their fourth straight double-digit win and we have seen this line move up slightly in what was an already overreaction number. They are one of the best defensive teams in the country but the offense remains a concern, sitting at No. 342 in three-point shooting and on top of that, No. 292 in free throw shooting which can bite them in a close game. Arkansas pulled away late in its win over Kansas and with the exception of a bad loss at South Carolina, the Razorbacks have been one of the better teams in the Southeastern Conference following a 0-5 start. They got a big piece back with Boogie Fland taking the court for the first time since January 18th and while he scored just six points in 24 minutes, his presence will be more felt today in what should be one of the best afternoon games. 10* (817) Arkansas Razorbacks