6* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are more concerned with keeping guys healthy going into the postseason.  They just locked up the No. 1 seed so they have literally nothing to play for.  The Cowboys want to finish strong as evidenced by several quotes from their two offensive leaders in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week.  I think they roll the Eagles’ scrubs, who could enter this game as early as the first quarter.  Take Dallas.

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +15.5 

The Key: No team has played the Patriots tougher than the Jets over the last few years.  In fact, the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Patriots.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in their last 9 meetings.  Now they’re catching 15.5 points against the Patriots today and it’s simply too much.  Take New York. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: The Detroit Lions have to be more than 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today based on the motivation of these two teams.  The Lions have managed to stay alive in the playoff race by going 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.  Now they play a Bengals team that has clearly quit, losing their last 2 games to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 14-67.  Marvin Lewis has announced he is done after the season, so the players have nothing left to fight for.  And the Bengals are a mash unit due to all of their injuries both on the offensive line and all over the defense.  Cincinnati is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after railing its previous game by 21 or more at the half.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Detroit. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Denver Broncos +3 

The Key: Brock Osweiler had a near-perfect QBR in his last game against the Colts.  He is trying to show teams that he can still be a starting quarterback in this league.  The Broncos have throttled the Colts and Broncos by a combined 48-13 score over the past 2 weeks.  Now they have extra prep time to get ready for the Washington Redskins after playing last Thursday.  They have the league’s top-ranked defense this season and will make life miserable on Kirk Cousins and the banged-up Redskins.  Washington was fortunate to win last week against the Cardinals limiting them to 5 field goals instead of touchdowns.  I think Osweiler and company punch it in a few more times this week, and the defense shuts down this anemic Washington offense.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.  Take Denver. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Cowboys/Raiders UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have been missing Ezekiel Elliott offensively.  They scored 9 or fewer points in 3 consecutive games without him.  They get him back next week, but until then their offense will continue to struggle moving the football.  Their defense got a big boost with the return of Sean Lee, and their numbers with and without him have been staggering.  They held the Redskins to 14 points two weeks ago and the Giants to just 10 points last week.  The Raiders are lacking offensive punch, and now they’re without their best receiver in Amari Cooper, who re-injured his ankle in a 15-26 loss to the Chiefs last week.  I think both teams will struggle to score points tonight.  Both teams will lean on the run, which will keep the clock moving.  Dallas is 11-1 UNDER in road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Cowboys last 23 road games, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Key: Don’t look now but the Buffalo Bills are in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They have a lot to play for, and it’s as hard to win in Buffalo in December as it is anywhere else in the NFL.  Now they get to host the Dolphins, who are in the ultimate letdown spot following their upset win over the Patriots on Monday.  They are also on a short week, and this warm weather team won’t like the conditions in Buffalo.  This game just screams Bills’ blowout because they get starting QB Tyrod Taylor back from injury this week, and they are the better running team in this cold weather.  Bets on any team (Buffalo) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last 5 games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last 5 games are 41-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Bills are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game.  The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games following a Monday game.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Arizona Cardinals +4 

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have won 2 of their last 3 games coming into this contest over the Titans and Jaguars, two teams poised to make the playoffs.  They should be able to handle the Washington Redskins, who sit at 5-8 and are done for.  This Redskins defense looks to have basically quit as they have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games.  The Cardinals still have an elite defense as they are yielding just 242 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  I’m not sure how the Redskins can be favored by more than a field goal in a game that they’ll likely lose outright.  They are just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-7 range.  The Redskins are also just 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona. 

6* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK 

The Key: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the NFL down the stretch.  They have won 4 straight games by a combined 78 points, or an average of 19.5 points per game.  The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming at home against the hapless Raiders.  They also lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets during this stretch.  It’s clear to me which team is playing better football right now and most likely to get the win in this pick ‘em game.  Philip Rivers knows this is one of his last chances to make the playoffs, and he’s not going to squander it.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories.  That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game.  And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game.  This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight.  The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games.  Take Denver. 

7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 

The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here.  They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago.  And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week.  This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots.  I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night.  They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 

The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week.  It was their last stand, and now they’re done.  And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway.  The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.  They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins.  He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.  The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Chicago Bears +6.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals suffered a crushing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.  They blew a 17-point lead in that game.  It was their last stand.  Now they’re on a short week and won’t be excited at all to face the Bears.  And they are missing numerous players on defense, and possibly their entire starting secondary.  The Bears continue to fight despite the poor media attention.  I think they can go into Cincinnati and pull the upset, but we’ll take the points for some added cushion.  The Bears have been competitive in every game by one that Mitch Trubisky has started.  They have only lost by more than 8 points once in their last 8 games, and that was at Philadelphia.  The Bengals only have 2 wins by more than 4 points all season.  John Fox is 10-1 ATS when he total is 35.5 to 42 as the coach of Chicago.  The Bengals cannot be this heavily favored considering the bad spot for them off the Steelers game Monday, and all of their injuries on defense.  Take Chicago. 

6* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 

The Key: The Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 7 after a 5-0 start.  They are now tied for first place in the AFC West with the Raiders and Chargers.  I think we are getting them at a discount now after this poor run.  Their offense came to life last week with 31 points while averaging over 10 yards per play against the Jets.  I think they score in bunches here against an awful Raiders defense.  The Chiefs will want revenge on the Raiders after losing on the final play of the game 31-30 in their first meeting.  The Raiders likely won’t have Amari Cooper because of an ankle injury.  That’s huge considering Cooper has 11 receptions for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first meeting.  Bets on home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.  Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. AFC West foes.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.  Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late.  The one time they stepped up on class?  They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was.  Now this is another step up game for the Saints.  The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them.  The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense.  Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Atlanta. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 

The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.  At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now.  Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting.  That’s an 8.5-point adjustment.  And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Browns/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +14 

The Key: This line has gotten way out of whack.  The Chargers can’t be 2 touchdown favorites against anyone.  I realize the Cleveland Browns are 0-11, but they are better than they get credit for.  One quick look at the stats shows that.  The Browns are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season, averaging 310 yards per game on offense and giving up 8 per game on defense.  Their problem has been red zone struggles on both sides of the ball.  But now the Browns are in the largest underdog role they’ve been all season, and it’s coming against a mediocre 5-6 Chargers team that has zero home-field advantage.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 or more points off 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent off 2 or more consecutive wins are 23-7 ATS since 1983.  Bets on road underdogs off 6 or more consecutive losses in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Patriots/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +9 

The Key: The Patriots have some mass injuries right now they are dealing with.  They will be without receiver Chris Hogan, offensive tackle Marcus Cannon and sack leader Trey Flowers.  They also could be without cornerback Eric Rose and offensive tackler LeAdrian Waddle, who are both questionable.  The Bills earned a huge 16-10 win in Kansas City last week to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Their defense was awesome, limiting the Chiefs to just 10 points and 236 total yards.  They have a knack for playing the Patriots tough.  They have actually won 2 of the last 5 meetings outright and have only lost once by more than 8 points in those 5 meetings.  The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bills are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games in weeks 10 through 13.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 

The Key: This game is all about the matchup.  The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games.  Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more.  Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength.  And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters.  The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one.  Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFL Total of the Week on UNDER 47.5 

The Key: This has the makings of a low-scoring game tonight between Washington and Dallas.  Both teams have banged-up offensive lines, and the Redskins are missing several key weapons on offense.  The Redskins are improving defensively, giving up just 10 points and 170 total yards to the Giants last week.  The Cowboys are faltering on offense, averaging just 7.3 points and 235 yards per game in their last 3 games.  Neither team was that effective on offense in their first meeting, a 33-19 Dallas win that was misleading.  The Cowboys only managed 307 total yards while the Redskins were held to 285.  With those small yardage outputs, their shouldn’t have been 52 total points scored.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Texans/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 39

The Key: Oddsmakers can't set a Monday Night Football total below 40.  These prime time games have been going over the total at an alarming rate over the last several weeks, and I think the books have made another mistake here setting this total too low Monday night.  The Ravens are clicking offensively right now, and they should be able to score at will on a depleted, bad Houston defense.  The Texans got their offense going last week for the first time with Tom Savage at quarterback, scoring 31 points and managing 357 total yards against a good Arizona defense.  They should score enough to help push this game OVER the total.  Houston is 10-2 OVER in road games off one or more straight ATS wins over the last 3 seasons.  They are scoring 50.6 combined points per game in this situation.  Take the OVER.

6* Jags/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +5

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have benefited from an extremely soft schedule of late.  They have won 4 in a row and are starting to become a public team.  Now they are laying 5 points on the road here to the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals played well enough to win their last two games against Seattle and Houston.  Blaine Gabbert made his first start with the team last week on the road at Houston, and should be much more effective at home this time around in his 2nd start.  And you can bet Gabbert wants revenge on his former team here.  The Jags are without some key starters in OL Jeremy Parnell, OL Patrick Omameh, CB Jalen Ransey and WR Allen Hurns.  Not having Hurns will allow Patrick Peterson to lockdown Marquise Lee, who is the only real threat at receiver now for the Jaguars.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take Arizona.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Chicago Bears +14.5

The Key: The Chicago Bears have been a profitable team to back this season.  They are now in their largest underdog role of the season, while the Philadelphia Eagles are in their largest favorite role of the year.  Mitch Trubisky has helped make the Bears at least competitive.  In his 6 starts, the Bears have not lost by more than 8 points once.  He has been protecting the football very well with just 3 turnovers in their last 4 games.  The Eagles are in a letdown spot off their big win over Dallas Sunday night.  They could also be looking ahead to a huge stretch with back-to-back road games at Seattle and the LA Rams in their next two games.  John Fox is 9-2 ATS when facing teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago.  Take Chicago.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17

The Key: After going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, the New England Patriots are becoming that public darling once again.  The betting public is going to line up to back them at any number.  That provides some line value to fade them as the Patriots are now 17-point favorites against the Dolphins this week.  This is their biggest favorite role of the season as they have only been a double-digit favorite one other time.  The Miami Dolphins have lost four straight and haven't covered a point spread in any of their last 5 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, especially after their 20-30 loss to the Bucs last week.  But they should have won that game as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 and managed 448 total yards.  Matt Moore will find success against this soft New England defense that gives up 402 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The Patriots have a ton of injuries right now and will be without two starting offensive linemen in C David Andrews and OL Marcus Cannon.  Bets on road teams (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Miami.

7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5

The Key: The Giants have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Redskins.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Redskins by more than 6 points.  The Redskins being 7.5-point favorites in this game is a big line mistake from the books, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  The offensive line is banged up, the front 7 defensively is missing key players, and the top two running games in Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out for the season.  The Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take New York.

7* Falcons/Seahawks NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5

The Key: The two meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons last season saw 50 and 56 combined points.  I think we get another shootout here Monday night.  The Falcons and Seahawks have two of the better offenses in the NFL statistically.  The Seahawks aren't as formidable on D as they once were, especially with all their injuries right now. The Legion of Boom secondary is only a shell of its former self with all of the injuries.  Richard Sherman is out for the season, and Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are both banged up.  Fellow cornerback Shaquille Griffin is also hurt.  Matt Ryan should carve up their defense, and Russell Wilson is fully capable of keeping pace with all of the weapons at his disposal.  6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen 50 or more combined points.  Atlanta & Seattle have averaged 57.7 combined points per game in those 7 meetings.  Take the OVER.

6* Bills/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +4.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers just can't cover the spread as favorites, let alone win games.  The last 27 times that the Chargers have been favored by 1 to 5 points, they have actually lost the game outright 18 times.  Bets on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 64-28 ATS since 1983.  The price is right to pull the trigger on the Bills this week thanks to their blowout loss to the Saints last week.  Look for them to likely win this game outright.  Take Buffalo.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Rams/Vikings OVER 45.5

The Key: Two of the better offensive teams in the NFL square off Sunday when the Rams play the Vikings in a dome built for scoring.  The Rams are putting up 32.9 PPG and averaging 389 YPG and 6.2 YPP this season.  The Vikings are scoring 24.1 PPG, averaging 364 YPG and 5.7 YPP this year.  The Rams have scored 33-plus in 3 straight and 4 of their last 6.  The Vikings have scored 71 combined points in their last 2 games and Case Keenum has been better than he is getting credit for.  The Rams are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight.  Minnesota is 29-13 OVER in its last 42 vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 29-7 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8

The Key: The Cleveland Browns have kept fighting.  They are trying to win games, and that was evident last week.  But once again they shot themselves in the foot despite outplaying the Lions for most of the game.  They had a 7-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, but Deshon Kizer got hurt and they went backwards on offense.  Kizer returned to lead them down the field, but threw an INT on first and goal from the 5 to lost 24-38 and fail to cover as 10-point underdogs.  They also had the clock run out on them on the 1-yard line on the final play before halftime.  They outgained the Lions 413 to 345 for the game.  The Browns have one of the better defenses in the NFL.  The key to stopping the Jaguars is stopping the run, and the Browns do a great job of that.  They are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  That's very good when you consider they have been trailing for the majority of their games, and the opponents have been wanting to run the football.  Bets on home dogs or PK who failed to cover 2 of their last 3, a team that's winning 25% or less of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 71-33 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFL Total of the Week on Titans/Steelers OVER 44

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have cluster injuries on their defense right now.  Safety Mike Mitchell probably won't play tonight, and CB Joe Haden has been lost for the season.  Veteran stalwart James Harrison is also questionable with a bad back.  The Titans have one of the better offenses in the NFL and will be able to move the ball and score points on the Steelers' defense.  But the Titans have a poor defense that gives up 23.7 PPG this season despite playing mostly suspect offenses.  Against the better offenses they faced, they gave up 57 points to Houston, 27 to Seattle and 26 to Oakland.  Pittsburgh qualifies as a good offensive football team.  Take the OVER.

7* Dolphins/Panthers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 38

The Key: In today's NFL, it's tough to set any total under 40 points.  This is a passing league and there's just so many variables that favor the offenses.  I think this 38-point total has clearly been set too low tonight.  The Dolphins have a better passing attack right now than they've had all season with Jay Cutler and DeVantae Parker back healthy.  Cutler completed 34 of 42 passes for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in his return from injury against the Raiders last week.  He'll have to air it out to try and keep up with the Panthers in this one.  Bets on the OVER on any team against the total (CAROLINA) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (worse than -7 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 28-5 since 1983.  Take the OVER.

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3

The Key: The season is on the line for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They can't afford a loss to the Cowboys if they want to make the playoffs.  They already trail the Saints and Panthers within their division, and the Cowboys are a team they will be fighting with for a wild card spot.  The Falcons have played 3 straight on the road and will be happy to return home this week.  They get 4 of their next 5 games at home and this is a stretch where they can really make some hay.  But because they have lost 4 of their last 5, they are only laying 3 points here to a Cowboys team that is without Ezekiel Elliott, has both Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams banged up, and are likely to be without tackle Tyron Smith.  The Cowboys are getting a lot of love from the books right now due to their 3 straight wins over the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs.  Dallas is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games after covering the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  Take Atlanta.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5

The Key: This matchup couldn't be better for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They lead the NFL record in sacks by a wide margin, and they are on pace to set the record for most sacks in a season.  Their pass defense is also 1st in the NFL by a landslide as they give up just 156 passing yards per game and 4.9 per attempt.  That's unheard of in today's NFL.  Now they're up against a Chargers team with an immobile quarterback that almost exclusively relies on the pass to move the football.  And the Chargers only rush 22 times per game for 89 yards per game.  Leonard Fournette is back from suspension and will be able to run on a Chargers' defense that is one of the worst in the NFL against the run, giving up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  The Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Bills are 4-0 at home this year while beating their opponents by 10.5 points per game.  Now Tyrod Taylor will have two key weapons back this week in Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin.  Clay still leads the team in receiving despite not playing since Week 5, so he is very important.  Benjamin will play in his first game in a Bills' uniform since being traded from Carolina.  The Saints are getting a lot of respect now after winning 6 in a row.  But their opponents have been lackluster to say the least.  They beat a banged-up Cam Newton and the Panthers, Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, Matt Stafford and the Lions, Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears and a banged-up Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  They have only played one true road game in their last five games.  Now they have to head up to Buffalo and play outdoors in the cold weather, which hasn't been a good combination for Drew Brees in the past.  The Bills have extra time to prepare after playing the Jets last Thursday.  New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after covering 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread.  Buffalo is 26-12 ATS at home in its last 38 games during weeks 10 through 13.  Bets against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Buffalo.

7* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +7

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are looking at this game like a must-win.  They trail the Rams by two games and the Seahawks by one game within their own division.  They have to win this game if they want any hope of making the playoffs.  They had a bye two weeks ago, which should help keep them fresh after beating the 49ers 20-10 last week and working on this short week.  The Seahawks have a lot of injuries right now, most notably along the offensive line and to safety Earl Thomas, plus several players in the defensive front seven.  Given their current state, the Seahawks can't be laying a touchdown on the road here.  The Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less under Bruce Arians.  Take Arizona.

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 24 of their last 25 home meetings with the Lions dating back to 1992.  Now they are home dogs here Monday night.  Granted, Aaron Rodgers isn't playing, but Brett Hundley should be much better than he was in his first career start against the Saints.  He has had two weeks to get ready for the Lions and that will certainly help.  It will also help that the Packers have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season now.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver.  Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable.  Pierre Garcon is out for the season.  CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings.  Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday.  Take Arizona.

6* Rams/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015. The Rams are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and could easily be 6-1 instead of 5-2.  The Giants have a laundry list of injuries and won't be competitive the rest of the way after their 1-6 start.  This is a complete mismatch ladies and gents.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +7

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing with their season on the line today.  At 2-5, and with the Saints at 5-2, their season is essentially over if they lose this game.  They should be playing with a chip on their shoulder here.  The Bucs still have the talent to match the Saints.  And they are catching 7 points, which is a ton when you consider each of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind.  The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting.  But this has been a much better Jets team since then.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3.  So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late.  And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Give me New York.

7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7

The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season.  Those were to the Bills and Chargers.  Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year.  And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line.  They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare.  Take Kansas City.

6* Steelers/Lions Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye, which is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  But they have some key injuries still that the are dealing with along the offensive line and at receiver.  And I think that they are still overvalued due to their 3-1 start, but we've seen their true colors show in their last two games with a 24-27 home loss to the Panthers and a 38-52 road loss to the Saints.  But those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores as the Lions made late runs in both.  They trailed the Panthers 27-10 and the Saints 45-10.  The Steelers look like perhaps the best team in the NFL right now with their 19-13 road win over the Chiefs and their 29-14 home win over the Bengals.  They have one of the league's top defenses, and Le'Veon Bell cannot be stopped.  The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Raiders/Bills OVER 46

The Key: The matchup here favors the over.  Derek Carr threw for 417 yards last week, and the Raiders will have to almost exclusively throw the ball now that Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for this game.  And the Bills have given up over 700 passing yards combined in their last 2 games due to all of their injuries in the secondary.  The Bills will be able to move the ball at will on this weak Raiders defense as well.  The OVER is 13-3 in Bills last 16 home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  The OVER is 10-1 in all Bills home games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season.  It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well.  It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now.  But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive.  Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

7* Dolphins/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Dolphins +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins are the better team here over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Dolphins have managed a 4-2 record despite getting nothing out of their offense this season.  Well, that was until the 4th quarter last week when Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and led the Dolphins to 17 points in the final period to beat the Jets 31-28.  Now Moore gets the nod again, and the offense will open up with him at the helm.  The Dolphins already have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they'll be up against one of the worst offenses in the Ravens.  The cluster injuries for the Ravens right now just aren't going to allow them to be competitive moving forward.  Take Miami.

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC at 5-1 right now.  They have a front seven defensively that is one of the best in the NFL, and their offense has really taken off this year with Carson Wentz.  I think Wentz has a big game against a Redskins defense that will be missing Josh Norman and Jonathan Allen, and possibly another corner in Breeland.  The Eagles beat the Redskins already 30-17 on the road and outgained them 356 to 254 in that game.  Now they are only laying 5 at home in the rematch.  I think they win by a TD or more with ease.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles +1

The Key: The Chargers have won 2 straight and will be looking for revenge after a 3-point loss to the Broncos in Week 1.  They should have a great chance of getting revenge here considering they are relatively healthy, while the Broncos are dealing with several injuries.  The top 2 receivers are hurt in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, with Sanders out Sunday.  Trevor Siemian is playing despite a bum shoulder, and he will be missing his starting offensive tackle and his backup tackle.  I just don't see where the points are going to come from for the Broncos in this game given the current state of their offense up against an underrated Chargers defense.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Seahawks/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Seattle -3.5

The Key: Money has been pouring in on the Giants all week.  But it's an overreaction from their 23-10 win in Denver on Sunday Night Football.  The Broncos took them lightly and had a ton of injuries in that game that led to the result.  But the Giants weren't the better team.  They got all the breaks, including a defensive touchdown, and they were actually outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos.  Now they have to face a rested Seahawks team coming off their bye, and I think the Giants' deficiencies will really show this week.  The Seahawks own the Giants, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take Seattle.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Bengals/Steelers OVER 40.5

The Key: This simply come down to value.  The over/unders on the two meetings between these teams last season were 45.5 and 48 points.  And we haven't seen a total lower than 44.5 in a Bengals vs. Steelers game in any of the last 8 meetings.  This total of 40.5 is simply too low.  The Bengals have been improving offensively since making the coordinator change, and the Steelers aren't going to be held back offensively like they have up to this point.  They simply have too much talent on offense.  Cincinnati is on a 48-28 OVER run vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game.  Pittsburgh is on a 28-14 OVER run in home games vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game.  Take the OVER.

7* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3

The Key: The Oakland Raiders' season is on the line tonight.  They have dropped 4 straight to fall to 2-4 on the season.  They cannot afford to drop to 2-5 with another loss here or they'll be done.  They Chiefs are vulnerable right now as this is a tough scheduling spot.  They played on Monday night two weeks ago, and now have to play on Thursday night.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is as tough a spot as it gets in the NFL.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all 6 games this year.  Look for a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch from the Raiders here, which will be the key to victory for them.  Take Oakland.

7* Colts/Titans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -6.5

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are going to be hungry tonight following two straight losses.  But an asterisk has to get put on those losses because Marcus Mariota got hurt against the Texans two weeks ago, and he didn't play against Miami last week.  Now Mariota makes his return and will lead the Titans to a blowout victory over the hapless Colts.  The only two wins for the Colts this season came at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns and the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers by a combined 6 points.  In their 2 road games this year, the Colts lost 9-46 to the Rams and 18-46 to the Seahawks.  Adding to the Titans' hunger here is the fact that they have lost 11 straight meetings with the Colts, but most of those were with Andrew Luck at QB.  Take Tennessee.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Los Angeles Rams +2.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams are the better team in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Rams have put up legit numbers this season outgaining teams by 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  The Jaguars haven't as they are dead even in yardage differential and dead even in yards per play.  The Jaguars have been one of the most lucky teams in the NFL to force 15 turnovers and score an insane amount of points off those turnovers.  They are +11 in turnover differential this season, which is the only reason they are 3-2.  I don't like backing teams that must win the turnover battle to win the game, which is almost always the case for the Jaguars because they aren't very good, especially on offense.  West Coast teams traveling East is usually a tough spot for them, but not here because this is a 4:05 EST start time.  Take Los Angeles.

7* NFC Game of the Month on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The Key: Teams coming off Thursday NFL games are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season.  The Bucs have had extra time to prepare now after losing 14-19 at home to the Patriots last Thursday in a game they easily could have won.  They get some key players back from injury on defense in Lavonte David and TJ Ward.  Now they get to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off a 7-34 loss at Philadelphia and could easily be 0-5 this year if not for overtime wins against the Colts and 49ers.  The Cardinals have mass offensive line injuries right now and can't keep Carson Palmer upright.  Trading for Adrian Peterson won't solve their problems in the immediate future, and I think they're being overvalued because of that trade.  The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on New Orleans Saints -4

The Key: The New Orleans Saints are off a bye and off two straight wins by a combined 54-13 final.  Their 34-13 win at Carolina looks mighty impressive right now.  The Lions haven't been as good as their 3-2 record statistically as they have benefited from a +8 turnover differential.  But the Lions have key injuries on their offensive line and on defense, and Matthew Stafford is starting to feel the effects of being sacked 12 times over the last 2 weeks.  He is hobbled coming into this one and won't be 100%.  The Saints are 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.  Take New Orleans.

7* Eagles/Panthers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -3

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without two key pieces on offense.  Running back Wendell Smallwood and tackle Lane Johnson are both out.  You wouldn't think a tackle would make that much of a difference, but in Johnson's case it has.  Carson Wentz is 9-2 in games that Johnson plays, and 2-8 in games that he does not.  He has thrown 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with Johnson, and 6 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions without him.  I love the way the Panthers are playing right now with back-to-back huge road wins over the Patriots and Lions.  Cam Newton finally looks fully healthy, and he has found some new favorite targets in Devin Funchess and Ed Dickson.  Funchess has 3 TD receptions in his last 2 games, and Dickson had 175 receiving yards against the Lions.  Ron Rivera is 32-13 ATS off a road game as the coach of Carolina.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Carolina.

7* Vikings/Bears NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +4

The Key: The Chicago Bears have won 8 of their last 9 home meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.  They are 2-0 ATS at home this season, nearly beating both the Falcons and Steelers.  The Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 7-0 ATS this season.  The Bears have had extra time to get Mitch Trubisky ready for his first start after playing last Thursday.  Take Chicago.

7* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year on Houston Texans +1

The Key: Deshaun Watson is 2-1 as the starting quarterback of the Texans.  They could be 3-0 as their only loss came on the road at New England 33-36 as the Patriots scored a touchdown in the closing seconds to win.  The Texans bounced back with the most impressive performance of Week 4, winning 57-14 at home against the Texans.  Watson accounted for 5 total touchdowns, and the defense held the Titans to just 195 total yards while forcing 5 turnovers.  Now the Texans still get no love from the books as home dogs here to the Chiefs.  It's because the Chiefs are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start, which included their miracle cover on Monday Night Football against the Redskins.  Now the Chiefs are on a short week and playing their 2nd straight National TV game.  The spot favors the Texans here.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 4 consecutive games.  Take Houston.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +1

The Key: The Jets, Colts and Browns are the 3 worst teams in the NFL and it's very close between all 3 power-ratings wise.  The Browns were favored at Indianapolis in Week 3, and now they're home underdogs to  the Jets in Week 5.  The Jets were 6.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, and 3.5-point home dogs to the Jaguars.  Now they're favored on the road here after winning those 2 games.  Those games were terrible travel spots for the Dolphins and Jaguars.  The Dolphins were on the road for 5 straight weeks since the preseason and were coming back from a West Coast trip to San Diego.  The Jaguars were coming back from London.  The line value is clearly with the home dog Browns here.  They'll be desperate to get their first win, and I think they get it done.  The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 following 2 consecutive home wins.  New York is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  Bets on any team with a poor offensive (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Cleveland.

6* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are just 1-3 on the season, while the Buffalo Bills are 3-1.  So the Bengals are undervalued right now, while the Bills are getting more love than they should be.  The Bengals have played well the last two weeks against the Packers and Browns, and the switch to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has made a huge difference.  Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his passes the last 2 weeks and has thrown 6 touchdowns against zero interceptions.  The Bills were fortunate to beat the Falcons last week because Atlanta lost its top 2 receivers in Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, and they got a fluke defensive TD that should have been called an incomplete pass instead of a fumble by Matt Ryan.  The true colors of these two teams will show this week as the Bengals are a playoff contender, while the Bills are frauds.  And the Bengals have a bye next week so they want to go into it feeling good about the outlook of the rest of the season.  Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Pats/Bucs Thursday NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5

The Key: The over has cashed in all four Patriots games this season.  That has this total set too high now at 54.5.  I think the value is clearly with the under now and I look for this one to be more low-scoring than the books anticipate.  Both defenses cannot continue to be as poor as they've been up to this point, especially the Patriots.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games on grass.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bucs last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Redskins/Chiefs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Redskins +7

The Key: Don't look now but the Washington Redskins are 2-1 and dominating their opponents statistically.  They have outgained their opponents by 101.7 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is playing extremely well, giving up just 272 yards per game.  The Chiefs are getting too much respect due to their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have only outgained their opponents by 28.3 yards per game.  They haven't been as dominant as their record and point differential would suggest.  Kansas City is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 3 consecutive games.  Washington is 43-24 ATS in its last 67 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Redskins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Washington.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Key: The fact that the Chargers are taking money and moving this line up to -2.5 is mind-blowing.  The Eagles are clearly the better team in this matchup, and the Chargers simply find ways to lose.  The Chargers are just 9-26 straight up over the past 3 seasons combined, winning roughly 25% of their games.  They can't be favored here against an upstart Eagles team that is one of the most improved in the NFL this season.  Philip Rivers should have already retired as he looks old and slow and has lost his arm strength.  He threw three interceptions against the Chiefs last week and it could have been more.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage right now as the LA fans just aren't into them, especially after their 0-3 start.  Los Angeles is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games. The Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +7

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers have been very impressive in their last two games.  They only lost by a field goal in Seattle as two-touchdown dogs, and they should have beaten the Rams are 3-point dogs in a 2-point loss last Thursday.  And that's key because now the 49ers have extra rest and prep time to get ready for the Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals have to work on a short week and try and recover from their 17-28 loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  I do not think the 49ers should be catching a touchdown given this favorable situation for them.  Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  San Francisco is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Arizona.  Take San Francisco.

6* Titans/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: Deshaun Watson led the Texans to a win in Cincinnati and a near-win in New England in his first two NFL starts.  If that's not impressive, I don't know what is.  This guy just isn't getting the love he deserves from oddsmakers as the Texans are now a home dog to the Titans.  Now Watson will have another healthy weapon back in Will Fuller, who is expected to make his season debut.  Having Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Bruce Ellington gives the Texans one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league.  The Titans are in a tough spot after a physical game against the Seahawks last week.  And after beating Seattle, it's certainly a bit of a letdown spot for them here.  Teams have not done well the week after facing Seattle over the past decade.  The Texans have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Titans, and they are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings.  Take Houston.

7* Bears/Packers NFC North Game of the Month on Green Bay -7

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Chicago Bears.  They have also gone 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  They won 26-10 at home over the Bears last year.  The QB edge for the Packers here is worth at least 7 points.  If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers get up 7 or more, the Bears won't be able to come back because Matt Glennon has been terrible, and he has the worst set of receivers in the NFL.  The Bears can run the ball, but that's not going to work if they get behind.  I think the Packers are by far the safer side here.  Hanging with the Steelers and Packers in back-to-back games is just too much to ask for Chicago.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cowboys/Cardinals NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +3.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have gone on the road the first two weeks and are 1-1.  There's no shame in that.  Now it's their home opener on the Monday night stage, and the Cardinals are primed for their best performance of the season.  Dallas has a ton of injuries in the secondary, and the Cardinals' strength is their passing attack, so Carson Palmer is primed for a big game here.  Trevor Siemian lit up Dallas' secondary last week, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Cowboys lost that game 17-42.  The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL after finishing #2 in total defense last year.  They will be able to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot here Monday.  Dogs are 12-3 ATS so far in Week 3, and I think this is another live home dog here tonight.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  Arians is 7-0 ATS against NFC East teams as the coach of the Cardinals.  Take Arizona.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Seahawks/Titans UNDER 42

The Key: The Seattle Seahawks have been terrible offensively this season because of their injuries along the offensive line.  Russell Wilson has been running for his life, and the running game hasn't been able to get going.  The Seahawks are only scoring 10.5 points per game and averaging 4.4 yards per play.  But they have been elite defensively in giving up only 13.0 points per game.  I think this will be a defensive battle with the Titans, who could be without RB DeMarco Murray and WR Corey Davis on offense.  Seattle is 31-12 UNDER in its last 43 September road games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Buffalo Bills +3.5

The Key: The betting public is all over the Denver Broncos in this game.  They are coming off the most impressive win over the week in Week 2 with a 42-17 victory over the Cowboys.  They have opened 2-0 at home, but now they are going on the road for the first time.  And the Broncos have a massive game against Oakland on deck next week.  This is the classic sandwich spot.  The Bills have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, which makes this a good matchup for them because the Broncos had the 28th-ranked run defense last year.  The Bills have an elite defense that can keep them in this game.  They are only giving up 10.5 points, 234 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Houston Texans +14

The Key: The New England Patriots have too many injuries right now to be favored by 14 over the Houston Texans.  They have a handful of skill players on offense who are banged up, and the injuries on defense have led to the Patriots giving up 31 points, 483 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play.  Their defense was terrible in the preaseson too.  I think Deshaun Watson can make enough plays to keep this game close, while the Texans' defense remains one of the elite units in the league.  Plus Watson gets some key weapons back this week in TE Ryan Griffin and WR Bruce Ellington.  Also CB Jonathan Joseph is expected to return from injury.  Take Houston.

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +3

The Key: One of the biggest advantages in professional sports is home teams on Thursday night games.  The short week for road teams is so tough because they have to travel and have almost zero time to prepare.  I think the 49ers were impressive last week in their 12-9 road loss to the Seahawks as 14-point dogs.  They have been able to get the running game going behind Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 7.0 yards per carry this season.  The Rams gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Redskins last week.  The 49ers have won 3 straight meetings with the Rams and are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  They were home dogs to the Rams last season, and won 28-0.  Take San Francisco.

7* Lions/Giants NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42.5

The Key: The New York Giants have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They held the Cowboys to just 19 points on the road last week despite their defense being on the field most the game.  That's because their offense was awful, managing just a field goal in the 19-3 loss.  They didn't have Odell Beckham in that game, and Beckham is going to be a game-time decision this week, so even if he plays he won't be 100%.  The Giants will have to ride their defense again here.  They hosted the Lions last year and won 17-6 for 23 combined points.  I think we see a similar output here.  The Lions scored 35 points last week, but they were gifted many of those points thanks to 4 turnovers by the Cardinals.  Detroit is 7-0 UNDER in its last 7 games off a win.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Lions last 27 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Giants last 10 games overall, including 4-0 in their last 4 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Cowboys/Broncos Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys went 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in meaningful road games last season where they played all of their starters.  They dominated on the road, beating the likes of the Packers and Steelers along the way.  The thing about the Cowboys is that their style of play travels well.  Teams that can run the football can win on the road.  And the Cowboys are probably the best in the league in that aspect.  Plus, Dak Prescott doesn't make critical mistakes and takes care of the football.  And the Cowboys should be able to run on a Broncos defense that ranked 28th in the NFL against the run last season.  Jason Garrett is 15-5 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Dallas.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have an elite defense that forced 4 turnovers and held the Texans to 7 points and 203 total yards last week.  They are the better defensive football team in this matchup with the Titans.  And the Jags have a new-found running game thanks to the upgrades they made along the offensive line and in the backfield with Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 100 yards in the win last week.  The Jaguars beat the Titans 38-17 at home last year.  The Titans are now 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Jacksonville and 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 division games overall.  Take Jacksonville.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Cleveland Browns +7.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns gave the Pittsburgh Steelers all they could handle last week in a 21-18 home loss as 10-point dogs.  The Steelers blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, which was the difference in that game.  They held a high-powered Steelers offense to just 14 points, while basically stopping Le'Veon Bell completely.  The Bengals turned the ball over 5 times against the Ravens last week, yet the Ravens only scored 20 points.  That just shows how bad of shape this Baltimore offense is in right now.  That's why they can't be laying more than a TD against one of the most improved teams in the NFL in the Browns, who can keep this one close.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Baltimore.  Take Cleveland.

7* Texans/Bengals AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 38

The Key: This 38-point total will be one of the lowest you will see in the NFL this season.  I think there is value with the OVER because of it.  I like the fact that the Texans will be going with Deshaun Watson tonight as his mobility will come in handy.  The Bengals are missing their best player on D in Vontaze Burfict.  The Bengals have a lot more talent on offense than they showed against a great Ravens defense last week.  Both offenses will bounce back after subpar Week 1 performances, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Bets on the OVER on road teams against the total (Houston) off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, in the first half of the season are 30-6 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* Chargers/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers should be one of the more improved teams in the NFL this season.  They had a plethora of injuries last season that held them back during their 5-11 season.  But they lost 9 games by 8 points or less, so they had their chances in most games.  Philip Rivers has some healthy weapons in Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen entering 2017.  They are far and away the better offensive team in this matchup, and their defense isn't far off from the Broncos.  The Broncos even signed Brock Osweiler this offseason, which just goes to show how rough their QB situation really is.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Week 1 games.  Los Angeles is 8-2-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Denver.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Eagles/Redskins NFC East *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia -1

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They went 1-6 in games decided by  touchdown or less last year in their 7-9 season.  They had the point differential of a team that should have been 9-7 or 10-6.  Carson Wentz and company will take a big step forward this year.  The Eagles have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and probably the 2nd-best defense in the NFC East.  The Redskins have probably the 3rd-worst offense in the NFC East after losing Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.  They have easily the worst defense in this division.  The Eagles want revenge after getting swept in the season series last year and losing 5 straight to the Redskins overall.  Philly is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 September games.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Cardinals/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are going to be an improved team this year.  They were statistically the best team in the NFL last year in terms of yard differential as they outgained opponents by 62 yards per game.  They had the 2nd-best defense and will be elite on D again in 2017.  The Lions trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of their 16 games last year yet still went 9-7.  They clearly weren't as good as their record.  Their defensive line is a mess heading into this game with 2 starters and 2 role players missing.  They are also missing a starting offensive lineman.  The Cardinals will win the battle in the trenches and thus win this game.  The Cardinals are 7-0 SU in the last 7 meetings, going 6-1 ATS in the process.  Take Arizona.

7* AFC North Game of the Month on Baltimore Ravens +3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens will have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  That was on display in the preseason as they held their 4 opponents to a total of 32 points, or an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Bengals will be missing 2 starters on defense in Adam Jones and Vontaze Burfict, which are 2 of their best players.  The Ravens are underrated right now because Joe Flacco missed the preseason.  But he's a veteran who doesn't need to practice time to come in and flourish.  The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Baltimore.

6* Chiefs/Patriots *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 48.5

The Key: No Julian Edelman will make the Patriots a little less explosive this season.  They will still have a good offense, but Edelman was Brady's favorite target, and he's irreplaceable.  The Chiefs win with defense and special teams, because their offense is one of the least explosive in the NFL.  Alex Smith is still lacking weapons at receiver.  Tyreek Hill is more of a gimmick receiver, not a No. 1 guy.  They lost Jeremy Maclin this season and have even worse talent at receiver than they did last year.  Kansas City is 32-16 UNDER in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1992.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Chiefs last 13 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER.

7* ATL/NE Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -3

The Key: The Patriots have been on a mission all season to take out their frustration on the NFL pertaining from Deflategate that led to Tom Brady's 4-game suspension.  All they've gone is taken out their frustration on opponents to the tune of a 16-2 SU & 15-3 ATS record on the season.  Somehow they have been undervalued all season, and they continue to be in the Super Bowl as only 3-point favorites over the Falcons.  The Falcons haven't seen a defense as good as the Patriots, which leads the league in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game.  Both offenses are elite, but the difference in this game is going to be the Patriots' ability to get stops.  The Falcons give up 24.8 points and 367 yards per game on the season.  Tom Brady has only thrown two interceptions all season, and the team that has won the turnover battle has gone 37-4 in the Super Bowl.  The Patriots winning the turnover battle and having the better defense is the difference Sunday.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons.  Take New England.

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Steelers/Patriots UNDER 51

The Key: Both of these defenses are playing tremendous football down the stretch.  The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 15.6 points per game on the season.  They are allowing only 12.9 points per game in their last 8 contests.  The Steelers are giving up only 16.6 points per game in their last 9 games, which is the biggest reason why they have won 9 straight.  And the Steelers have had their struggles in the red zone, as evidenced by their 6 field goals against the Chiefs without a TD last week.  The Patriots are the definition of a bend but don't break defense, and it will be hard for the Steelers to punch it in the end zone again this week.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 conference championship games.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Steelers last 5 playoff games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 road games off a road win.  Take the UNDER.

6* GB/ATL NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 61.5

The Key: For starters, this is the second-highest total in NFL history.  That fact alone shows that there is value on the under.  The books have inflated this number because the betting public will be all over the 'over' in this game.  I think there are some key injuries that will prevent both teams from racking up a ton of points in this game.  The Packers are likely without Jordy Nelson and could be without Devante Adams, who have combined for 26 touchdown receptions this year.  Julio Jones is expected to play, but he's nowhere near 100% for the Falcons.  I realize these teams combined for 65 points earlier this season in a 33-32 Atlanta victory, but the box score shows that neither team moved the football all that well.  The Packers only had 331 total yards in that contest while the Falcons had 367.  Those are decent numbers for most teams, but not for the Packers and Falcons, who average 373 yards and 416 yards per game on the season, respectively.  The Falcons have been better defensively down the stretch in allowing 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games.  Atlanta is 6-0 UNDER after gaining 375 or more yards in 4 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 14-4 UNDER vs. teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* GB/DAL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys pummeled the Green Bay Packers 30-16 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I see Green Bay having the same issues in the rematch, especially defensively.  The Cowboys went for 424 total yards and 191 rushing, absolutely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually proves victorious, and that will be the formula for the Cowboys again just as it has been all season.  And the Packers have several key injuries at receiver and in their secondary.  The Cowboys are very healthy coming into this game off their bye.  The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Dallas.  Take Dallas.

7* SEA/ATL NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -4.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have the best statistics in the NFL this season.  They outgain their opponents 6.7 to 5.6 yards per play on the year, which is the best differential in the league.  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first meeting against the Seahawks in Seattle, a 24-26 loss.  But I think Ryan and company get their revenge at home this time around.  The Seahawks have only won 3 road games all season while scoring just 16 points per game away from home.  Take Atlanta.

6* Giants/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Green Bay -5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have a huge edge on offense in this game.  They have scored at least 30 points in 4 consecutive games and are clicking at the right time.  Aaron Rodgers has 18 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 7 games.  The Giants do have the better defense, but their offense is so bad that I don't think they can take advantage of the Packers' defense.  After all, they've failed to reach 200 passing yards in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Giants get too much respect for what they've done in the playoffs in the past, but this is a different team, and Ben McAdoo is not nearly the coach that Tom Coughlin was before him, or Mike McCarthy on the other sideline.  The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home earlier this season and outgained them by 185 yards.  Rodgers had no problem against their defense, leading the Packers to over 400 yards of offense.  The Giants are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Lions/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -8

The Key: Matthew Stafford is 1-24 in his career on the road against a team that finished the season with a winning record.  He simply has to do too much for the Lions, who are below-average at basically every other position on the field, especially defensively.  They have allowed 73 points and over 800 yards of total offense in back-to-back losses to the Packers and Cowboys.  The Lions are 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and 9-2 against everyone else.  They have trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of 16 games this year.  I look for a big effort from the Seahawks here, who are 9-0 in their last 9 playoff home games.  They are 7-1 at home this season.  Anything short of a double-digit victory for the home side would be a shocker.  Take Seattle.

6* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4

The Key: Now that this line has dropped back down to -4, I like the price we are getting with the Kansas City Chiefs here.  They need to win this game and have the Raiders lose to the Broncos to get the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  They will be motivated to hold up their end of the bargain, just as they were last week when they beat the Broncos 33-10.  It was probably their most complete performance of the season as they outgained the Broncos by 238 yards in the victory.  Their offense is rolling behind Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce, and their defense is suffocating.  The Chargers just want this season to be over.  They have lost four straight while going 0-4 ATS coming in, including handing the Browns their first win of the season last week.  The Chiefs own the Chargers, winning 5 straight meetings in this series, including a 33-3 road victory in their last trip to San Diego.  The Chargers are dealing with more injuries to starters than any other team in the NFL right now.  They just don't have enough proven, healthy bodies to offer any kind of resistance here.  The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  San Diego is 0-8 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last 2 years.  The Chargers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Kansas City.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Cardinals/Rams OVER 40.5

The Key: I like backing the OVER in games between teams with nothing to play for, as is the case here with the Cardinals and Rams.  And this is one of the lowest totals of the week at only 40.5, so there is plenty of line value here.  The Cardinals have been giving up a ton of points the last few weeks.  They have allowed 32.7 points per game in their last 6 contests.  They have given up 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games overall.  I think Jared Goff will be in line for his best game of the season here.  But Arizona's offense is clicking, scoring a combined 75 points the last two weeks.  ANd the Rams haven't exactly been stout defensively.  They have allowed at least 22 points in 5 straight games and an average of 32.6 points per game during this stretch.  Given these numbers, it's clearly that the books have set this number too low here today.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.  The OVER is 14-3 in Cardinals last 17 road games, including a perfect 7-0 this season.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC West Game of the Month on Oakland Raiders +2

The Key: The Oakland Raiders have a lot to play for this week.  They need to win to clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.  They also have an outside shot at getting the No. 1 seed if they win, but that would require a Patriots loss.  Either way, they want this victory.  Few backup quarterbacks can step into a situation and be as successful as Matt McGloin is going to be for the Raiders.  That's because he has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, perhaps the best duo at receiver in the league in Cooper and Crabtree, and plenty of help from the running game.  He has started in this league before and will be up to the challenge.  While the Raiders want this game badly, the Broncos could care less.  They were just eliminated from the playoffs last week with their ugly 33-10 loss to the Chiefs.  That came a week after another ugly 16-3 home loss to the Patriots.  They won their Super Bowl last year, and the offseason can't get here soon enough for these players.  The Broncos are going to be sitting some key starters on defense due to injury in S T.J. Ward, DE Derek Wolfe, LB Demarcus Ware and LB Brandon Marshall.  That's only going to make McGloin's job even easier.  The Raiders rushed for 218 yards in their 30-20 win over the Broncos earlier this season.  They should find plenty of success on the ground against a Denver defense that gives up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.  The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Oakland.

6* DET/DAL NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions will be the more motivated team tonight.  Win and they're in the playoffs as at least a wild card.  But if they lose this game, they would need to beat the Packers next week to get in.  I think they'd rather take care of their business now.  The Dallas Cowboys literally have nothing to play for in this game.  They have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC after events that took place over the weekend.  They will be playing their starters, but they won't be playing with the chip on their shoulders that they have for most of the season.  And the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall as they have been overvalued due to their fast start to the year.  Last week's 6-17 loss at New York was the first time the Lions have lost a game by more than a touchdown since midway through last season.  Matthew Stafford should be able to find plenty of success against a Dallas defense that allows 68.4% completions and 265 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Lions are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 2 seasons.  Jason Garrett is 11-26 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas.  Take Detroit.

7* DEN/KC AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +3.5

The Key: The Chiefs are nowhere near as good as their 10-4 record.  They have been outgained by an average of 88 yards per game in their last 7 contests.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential this season.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors, but they have lost two of their recent home games to the Titans and Buccaneers.  The Chiefs are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the Broncos and Chiefs while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread.  Denver clearly should have won the first meeting this season as it outgained KC by 191 yards.  Now the Broncos will have their revenge and keep their season alive in the rematch on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, which hasn't been as friendly to the Chiefs as most believe.  Take Denver.

7* NFL Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Redskins -3

The Key: I always look to back teams off a bad loss and fade teams off an emotional game.  In this case, we have the perfect situation.  The Redskins are coming off a bad home loss to the Panthers in which they lost by 11 as 7-point favorites.  Now everyone is writing them off, but we've seen them bounce back before.  They won four straight following their 0-2 start, and they have only lost two games in a row twice all season.  Those were to the Steelers/Cowboys and Cowboys/Cardinals, so it's understandable.  They aren't going to lose to the lowly 3-11 Bears this week as the Redskins need to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs.  The Bears will be deflated following back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Lions (by 3) and Packers (by 3).  They fought back from a 17-point deficit to tie it against the Packers last week, only to lose on a last-second field goal.  I don't think these players will be able to get back up off the mat from that crushing defeat against their biggest rivals.  I fully expect a no-show from the Bears here.  Washington is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.  Washington is a perfect 6-0 straight up in its last 6 meetings with Chicago.  The Redskins are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Chicago.  Take Washington.

6* NY/PHI NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York Giants -1.5

The Key: The New York Giants have won 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming on the road to the Steelers, who are one of the best teams in the NFL.  They are on a mission to make the playoffs and can clinch their spot in the postseason with a win today.  That would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17, which would be huge for them to get healthy.  The Eagles have lost 6 of their last 7 because of their awful defense, which has allowed at least 26 in six of those games.  The Giants are 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense and have held their last 2 opponents in the Cowboys and Lions to an average of 6.5 points per game.  I'll back the more motivated team here in the Giants with the much superior defense.  Take New York.

7* Panthers/Redskins NFC *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 50

The Key: I don't expect much defense to be played in this contest between the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers tonight.  These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Panthers are giving up 25.9 points per game overall and 32.5 points per game on the road.  The Redskins are allowing 24.4 points per game overall and 24.8 points per game at home.  But these are more than capable offenses as the Redskins are averaging 27.5 points per game at home and the Panthers are scoring 23.9 points per game overall.  There are key injuries on both defenses as the Redskins are going to be without LB Will Compton and S Su'a Cravens, while the Redskins are without DE Charles Johnson and could be without LB Luke Kuechly again.  The OVER is 8-0 in Redskins last 8 home games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games.  The OVER is 13-3 in Panthers last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -4

The Key: Matthew Stafford has a bum finger on his throwing hand that is going to limit what he's able to do against the Giants this week.  It's not going to help having such cold weather in the Meadowlands, either.  Stafford threw two interceptions against the Bears after injuring his finger last week.  He needs to be at full strength for the Lions to have any chance of moving the football on a Giants defense that only allows 18.8 points per game this year.  I look for Stafford to struggle, and the Lions don't have a running game to bail him out.  The Giants are 6-1 at home this season and will take care of business on their home turf Sunday.  Stafford has exactly one career road win over a team that finished with a winning record.  The Lions will get exposed for the frauds that they are this week.  Take New York.

7* LA/SEA NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Rams +16

The Key: Betting underdogs of this size in the NFL has been a very profitable move over the long haul.  I especially like doing it when we're talking about division games.  Even the worst teams get up for these division games, and I think the Rams will bring their best effort tonight.  They have a new coach in John Fassel and a better outlook now with Jeff Fisher gone.  The Rams have actually owned the Seahawks recently.  They've won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright as underdogs.  They won both meetings last year, and they won 9-3 at home this year over the Seahawks.  The Rams have the defense that will keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  I expect Jared Goff and Todd Gurley to make just enough plays to keep them competitive throughout.  Take Los Angeles.