7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +13.5
The Key: The Bulls were thumped in Houston last night, but I expect them to respond. This veteran team has a lot of pride and hasn't forgotten that it was crushed by 30 points the last time in visited Oklahoma City. It knows it needs to show up or it will be embarrassed again. The haunting memory of that defeat provides ample motivation. The Thunder are off a big win in Denver, and they have a big game in San Antonio on deck so they won't give this struggling Chicago team their full attention. The time to start fading this hot OKC squad is now as it is just 13-28 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Brooks. The Thunder are also only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points after 6 or more consecutive wins if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by a total of 18 points or more ATS in their last 3 games if they have a win percentage of 25-40% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 44-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Pelicans +10.5
The Key: The Pelicans by 11 at Golden State last night. However, you want to back road underdogs of 10 points or more if they have a losing record and check in off a road loss of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 100-58 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Pelicans are an impressive 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are coming off a big double-digit upset win over the Spurs. But, teams headed up by Doc Rivers are just 4-15 ATS in home games following an upset victory of 10 points or more. The Pelicans are 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Jazz see this game as an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column, and they'll go after it with all they've got. While its record would lead you to believe otherwise, Utah is a better team than the Magic. It has been hurt by playing in the superior Western Conference. The Jazz are just 2-6 in their last 8 games, but five of their losses during this stretch came to Indiana, Portland (twice), San Antonio and Miami. The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. They are also 2-15 ATS when laying points under coach Vaughn. The Jazz are 5-0 in their last five games against the Magic. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +5
The Key: The Cavs aren't getting the respect they deserve at home where they have won four straight and are 7-3 on the season. They defeated the Clippers 88-82 Dec. 7 so they have shown they can take care of business against elite competition in Cleveland. The Cavs will be the fresher team tonight as they have had two days of rest while the Trail Blazers will be playing their third road game in four days, and they were pushed to overtime in their last game. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -5
The Key: The Hawks went down at the Knicks last game, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season following a road loss. Look for this trend to continue against an L.A. squad that's really hurting in the backcourt. With Steve Nash, Jordan Farmar and Steve Blake all out with injuries, Kobe Bryant has been forced to play bigger minutes sooner than the Lakers would have liked. He's also been forced to handle the ball a lot more, which hasn't been a good thing since he's showing rust with 25 turnovers. Look for the Hawks to pressure Bryant to wear him out and force him into miscues. The Lakers are 11-22 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons and 16-30 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by two straight losses to Houston, the Kings will be ready to roll when they hit the floor Sunday evening. Houston will be fatigued as this will be its third road game in four days. The Kings should be the fresher side as they have had a day off in between each of their last four games. Prior to an ugly performance against Utah in their last home game, the Kings had won or lost by fewer than 6.5 points in six straight at home. This stretch included games against the Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Thunder, Lakers and Mavs. The Rockets are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons -5.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Brooklyn as it goes on the road following last night's big win over the Clippers. That was a statement game for a Nets squad that has been a disappointment to this point, and the big win sets Brooklyn up for a letdown. The Nets lost the season's first meeting with Detroit 109-97 at home, but it's not like that loss has been eating away at them. Brooklyn feels like it is the superior team and won't draw any added motivation from the earlier defeat in this spot. The Pistons, on the other hand, will be extremely motivated because they have lost three in a row. They should also be a little more rested having had last night off. You want to fade underdogs that are out for revenge for a double-digit home loss to an opponent if that foe checks in off a road defeat. Doing so has produced an 88-46 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by an average of 11.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Pistons are on an 8-0 ATS run versus Atlantic division opponents. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: The Celtics needed no added motivated for this game as they will be facing their old coach, but they got it with last night's loss in Brooklyn. Expect to see a very charged-up Boston squad tonight. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Plus, the Clippers could actually be more fatigued as they will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days with a short bench. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. They are also on a 15-3 ATS run at home versus poor defensive teams that allow 99+ points/game. The Clippers have struggled on the road where they are just 6-6 and have won by more than 6 points only 3 times. Boston has won its last 3 at home, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Magic +6.5
The Key: The books are giving Charlotte a little too much respect tonight. The Magic see this game as a chance to end their six-game skid, and they'll go after it with all they've got. Orlando will be further fueled by losses in its last three games against Charlotte. Two of those defeats came by fewer than 6.5 points. In fact, Orlando has won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 25 of the last 28 meetings. That's a 25-3 trend I'll gladly get behind. The Bobcats upset the Warriors last time out and are just 5-17 ATS following an upset win since the start of last season. They also have a big game at Indiana up next so they could easily be looking ahead. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +2
The Key: This is an extremely tough spot for Denver, which will be playing its sixth road game in nine days. I expect the Nuggets to be feeling the effects of this gruesome stretch. To make matters worse, there's a good chance they'll be without Ty Lawson, who is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards have had two days of rest and will be playing for just the third time this month. All of these games have been at home so they haven't had to endure the extra fatigue that comes with travel. While Nene is expected to miss, I don't think it will matter as John Wall should have a big game without Lawson tiring him out on the defensive end. The Wizards are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three versus Denver, winning the last two outright as an underdog.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +6
The Key: Toronto doesn't help itself by getting many points off turnovers as it averages just 7 steals per game. However, it should still be able to keep this one within the number given how much the Lakers are being overvalued here. Odds makers overvalue a very public L.A. team at home constantly. As a result, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game under D'Antoni. This trend also indicates that teams that don't gamble a lot defensively have had a lot of success defending the Lakers. Toronto has been very competitive with L.A. lately, winning or losing by fewer than 6 points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. 4 of these games were decided by 2 points or less. Kobe Bryant is expected to make his debut although it is uncertain how many minutes he will play. Initially, I expect his presence on the court to throw a hitch in the Lakers' giddy-up as they have been used to playing without him, and the ball tends to stop when it hits his hands, disrupting the flow of the offense. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers +6.5
The Key: Look for the Cavs to cover this number at home where they are 5-3 this season, including 2-0 against the West. Leading the charge will be Kyrie Irving, who I fully expect to bounce-back after being held scoreless for the first time in his career. The Cavs played last night but have won three of their last four in the second game of back-to-backs. Los Angeles is 0-3 on the road against the East. The Cavs are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings overall and 10-1 in the last 11 meetings at home. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +11.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Portland following back-to-back wins over the Pacers and Thunder. After defeating those giants, it will be very difficult for the Trail Blazers to get up for the lowly Jazz. They'll likely be looking right past Utah to tomorrow's showdown with 12-8 Dallas. The Jazz have quietly covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games and have been a different team since rookie Trey Burke started logging big minutes. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more on Friday night if they check in off a home win. Doing so has produced a 47-17 ATS record the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 12.2 points but have won by only 8.8 points on average. This system is 20-5 ATS the last three seasons. You also want to back road underdogs of 10 points or more on Friday nights if they are coming off one of more consecutive losses. Doing so has produced a 72-32 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by an average of 9.6. Take the points.

6* NBA Revenge Rout on Bucks +4.5
The Key: Milwaukee was crushed 113-94 in Detroit Nov. 25, and that loss will be all the motivation it needs here. The Bucks have the good fortune of catching Detroit at just the right time. The Pistons are riding high off last night's win in Miami, setting them up for a letdown. While both teams played last night, this is Detroit's third game in four days. Milwaukee had two days off prior to playing last night so it should be a little fresher. You want to fade favorites like Detroit that check in off a double-digit road win if they have a losing record. Doing so has produced a 47-24 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to back underdogs like Milwaukee that have failed to covered the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they're up against a team that has covered the number in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 69-35 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Game of the Week on Cavaliers +4.5
The Key: This is an extremely unfavorable situation for Denver, which will be playing its second road game in as many nights and its third in four days. The Cavs have three full days of preparation and fresh legs on their side, and that gives them a sizable advantage. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing record. You want to back underdogs like Cleveland that have failed to cover the number in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they're matched up with an opponent that have covered the spread in four of their last five games. That's because doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Nets +5
The Key: The Nets picked up a much-needed, confidence-boosting win at Memphis last time out, and I expect them to carry the momentum into tonight. The season hasn't started the way Brooklyn envisioned, but it has been plagued by injuries and has played a road-heavy, challenging schedule. Still, the Nets are just 1.5 games out of first in the Atlantic division so they can remain positive knowing they can make a huge run once their health returns. They'll have Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, Kevin Garnett and Andre Blatche tonight, and this core should not be catching this many points at home against a road-weary Nuggets squad that's playing on the road for the fourth time in five games. Plus, the Nuggets have had just one day of rest in between each of their last seven games. Brooklyn has had two days to gear up for this one and the extra rest should treat it well. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The home team has dominated this series, going 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a 12.5-point average winning margin. The Nets are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against the Nuggets with their last two wins coming by 16 and 11 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +8
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Rockets following a big win in San Antonio that ended a seven-game road losing streak in the series. In addition, Houston has been far from dominant on the road where it hasn't won by more than seven points in its last five games. Houston won by 11 in Utah earlier this season. That comfortable victory, and the huge win over the Spurs, will make it rather easy for the Rockets not to give Utah their full attention. The Jazz have quietly covered the spread in seven of their last 10, and they are a different team with Trey Burke in the lineup. The rookie has averaged nearly 16.0 points while helping the Jazz with two of their last three. The Rockets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *CA$H COW* on Wizards -3.5
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Hawks, who will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their fourth game in five days after spending a lot of energy in last night's come-from-behind win over Dallas. The Wizards also played last night, but they didn't spend nearly as much energy in a lopsided loss to the Pacers. Plus, the Wizards are an impressive 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You also want to back favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points following a blowout loss of 20 points or more if they average 98-102 ppg and are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. Doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons -5
The Key: The Pistons fit perfectly into an extremely lucrative system that tells us to take home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent if they also check in off an upset defeat of 15 points or more. Doing so has produced a 64-30 ATS mark since 1996. The Lakers are a dismal 8-21 as a road dog going back to the start of last season as well as a soft 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points during the same time frame. In addition, L.A. is a pitiful 1-11 ATS in road games off an upset win over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 104 to 92.1 in this spot. Lastly, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 117-113 loss at Denver in the season's first meeting, the Timberwolves will be all business when they take the floor tonight. Minnesota is 6-2 at home and hasn't lost three consecutive games this season. The two previous times it has dropped two in a row this season, it responded with a 116-108 home win over Dallas and a 111-81 home win over Brooklyn. The Nuggets are just 2-4 on the road and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Denver is also 2-14 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by an average of 7.7 points in this situation. The Timberwolves are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Bobcats +8.5
The Key: The Pacers are getting too much respect on the road against a much improved Charlotte club. Indiana is 5-1 on the road, but only one of these wins came by more than 8 points. It's not like the Pacers have been playing elite competition either. Their road games have been against New Orleans (6-8), Detroit (6-8), Brooklyn (4-10), Chicago (6-7), New York (3-10) and Boston (6-10). Charlotte has been completely embarrassed the last two times it's faced the Pacers so it will bring a little something extra to the court tonight. The Bobcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 versus Eastern Conference opponents as well as 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus NBA Central division foes. The Bobcats are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +7
The Key: You want to fade home teams like Indiana that outscore their opponents by 9.0 points or more per game and are matched up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more in its last game. Doing so has produced an eye-popping 31-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. Minnesota is just 2-5 on the road, but four of those losses came by 4 points or less. The T-wolves lost by 11 at Houston in their last game, but they are 27-14 ATS after a loss of 10 points or more under coach Adelman. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +7
The Key: Rose is out indefinitely with a meniscus tear, but the Bulls have been through this before and will rise to the occasion in his absence. The Bulls have had a day of rest while the Clippers will be playing their second game in as many days and their fourth in five days so I believe Chicago will have more energy to exert at the defensive end. The Bulls have been the better investment of late as they have covered the spread in five of their last seven games while the Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Chicago is an impressive 55-36 ATS after one or more consecutive losses under coach Thibodeau. It is also 26-10 ATS under coach Thibs following a loss of six points or less. The Bulls have won or lost by less than 7 points or less in 8 of the last 11 meetings with the Clippers. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +13.5
The Key: Orlando will be the much more motivated team tonight after getting clubbed by Miami in its last game. Even with that loss, Orlando has won or played the Heat to within 13 points in 13 of the last 15 meetings. I expect a lackadaisical performance from the Heat here as it will be very difficult for the two-time defending champs to get their juices flowing for a team they just crushed. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. You want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .750 or greater after 3 or more consecutive wins when they are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 45-20 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 12.8 points on average but have won by just 9.2. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .250 to .400 if they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games when they are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by just 9.7. Take Orlando.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Grizzlies +1.5
The Key: Memphis has rebounded following a slow start and is now ready to get a little revenge against the Spurs. San Antonio swept the Grizzlies in last season's playoffs and then beat them in the season's first meeting so this is a game Memphis wants badly. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS since the start of last season versus excellent teams that shooting 46% or better and hold opponents to 43% shooting or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 95.7 to 89.4. Also, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. Take Memphis.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bucks +5.5
The Key: You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games when they're matched up with an opponent that has covered the number in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games. That's because doing so has produced a 66-33 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.0 points on average, but have lost by only 2.5 points on average. This system is an explosive 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is a tough spot for Portland as this is its 4th road game in 6 days. The Bucks have had 3 full days off and are expected to get Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova back in the lineup. Milwaukee has given Portland fits. The Bucks are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +5
The Key: I'll gladly take the home team catching points considering how valuable home-court has been in this series. The home team is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last 7 meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 9.7 points. Washington is 8-1 in its last 9 home games against the T-Wolves, winning these by 9.8 points on average. The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last 8 at home. In addition, Washington is 19-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons and 16-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bobcats +11.5
The Key: The Bulls are being overvalued following four consecutive SU and ATS double-digit wins. The Bobcats have won their last 3 road games outright as underdogs and will be lacking no motivated here against a Chicago team that defeated them by 30 the last time they met. Prior to that loss, Charlotte had defeated the Bulls by double digits as an 11.5 point dog and lost by only 8 points as a 13-point dog for back-to-back covers in the series. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago, and the road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are a lousy 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have shot team 42% or worse in 3 straight games when they're up against a team that has allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less in 5 straight games. Doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 12.8 points on average but have lost by just 7.3 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses on the road, and further fueled by a 6-point loss at Charlotte earlier this month, Cleveland will be all business when it takes the floor this evening. The Cavs have been a different team at home where they are 3-0. Home-court advantage has also treated them well against Charlotte as they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games against the Bobcats, winning these by 16.0 points on average. Charlotte has been a lousy investment when catching points on the road as it is 16-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. It falls to 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points during this span. The Bobcats pulled off an upset win at Boston last game. However, they are 4-14 ATS off an upset win the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is also just 4-16 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Warriors Under 207
The Key: You want to play the under on all teams with a winning record playing another winning team in the first half of the season when the total is 200 to 209.5. Doing so has produced an amazing 93-36 (72.1%) mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen just 197.0 total points scored on average in this situation. We have seen 217 and 213 total points scored the last two times these teams have met, and yet we're seeing a line of 207.0? Clearly, odds makers expect Golden State's stingy defense to be more of a factor this time around. The Warriors rank 4th in field goal percentage defense and first in 3-point field goal percentage defense. The Thunder haven't been too shabby defensively either, ranking 9th in field goal percentage defense and 11th in 3-point field goal percentage defense. Take the under.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Bobcats +5.5
The Key: Boston has won four in a row since an 0-4 start and has covered the spread in its last five, but I'm not sold. The Celtics did find a way to beat a Miami team that is playing uninspired ball but their other wins against Utah and Orlando are far from impressive. Plus, two of their wins have come by two points or less. The Bobcats will be motivated here as they have lost back-to-back games after winning two in a row. Plus, they have proven they can win in a tough environment as they defeated the Knicks at MSG. The Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus NBA Atlantic division foes and 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Boston. Also, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers +3.5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to several things: a 96-85 loss at New Orleans Friday, a 113-90 loss to Minnesota Sunday and the absence of Steve Nash. The Lakers had won 11 straight against New Orleans before Friday's loss so they will be hungry for revenge to say the least. They will be further motivated by Sunday's brutally embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Also, Nash hasn't been much of a factor this season as he's averaging just 6.7 points and 4.8 assists. Nash had a quiet 3 points and 5 assists in the Lakers' win over the Clippers, and he has a mediocre 12-point, 6-assist performance in their win over the Rockets. The Lakers have already defeated a pair of teams I believe will contend for the Western Conference title without much help Nash. New Orleans hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-2 with losses to the Magic and Suns, teams I believe will end up toward the bottom of their respective conferences. The Lakers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against New Orleans, winning these by 8.2 points on average.

6* NBA Annihilator on Rockets -8
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will be extremely motivated when they take the floor this evening. As if Thursday's 1-point loss to the Lakers wasn't painful enough, Houston squandered an 11-point third-quarter lead in Saturday's 107-94 defeat to the Clippers. I have no doubt the Rockets will be all business following these results. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, which will be playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Rockets have had a day off after each of their last two games and haven't had to travel as they've been at home. They will be the fresher side. The home team has had a big edge in this series. In fact, the home team is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -1.5
The Key: I expect Brooklyn to hand Indiana its first defeat this evening. Brooklyn lost in OT at Washington last night but only one player logged more than 35 minutes. Plus, the Nets had two days off prior to the contest so I believe they'll be the fresher side. This will be Indiana's fourth game in five days, and it comes on the road against the deepest and most talented team it's seen thus far. Brooklyn has struggled on the road but has taken care of business on its home floor where it is 2-0 with one of those being a win over the defending champs. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Brooklyn, losing the last four straight up by an average of 10.0 points. Bet the Nets.

6* NBA Situational Annihilator on Raptors +9
The Key: This is a bad spot for Indiana. The Pacers are coming off a big win over Chicago, and they have a big game at Brooklyn tomorrow so the tendency is to look ahead. You want to fade Friday night home favorites like Indiana that are outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game as doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 9.9 points on average but have won by just 7.3. The Raptors are 0-2 SU and ATS in their last two and were upset at Charlotte last game. However, they are 19-8 ATS in road games off a road loss since the start of the 2011 season. They are also on a 22-10 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games during the same time frame. The Raptors gave Indiana big problems last season. They won both meetings in Indiana straight up as 9 and 7-point dogs, respectively, and played the Pacers to a two-point game in one of the other two meetings. In fact, Toronto has won or lost by less than 9 points in 7 of its last 8 meetings with the Pacers. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -3
The Key: I fully expect Denver to break into the win column tonight at home. The Nuggets have lost their first two home games this season, and that can't be sitting well with a team that went 38-3 at home during the 2012-13 regular season. The Nuggets showed drastic improvement last game against the defending Western Conference champs, and I believe they break through here against a team they have owned. They are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against the Hawks, winning these by 9.2 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers +5.5
The Key: The Clippers got caught looking ahead last night and lost to the Magic. That loss assures us they will be even hungrier when they take the floor this evening. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are coming off a win and cover against the Raptors but are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. You also want to back underdogs that average 103.0 points or more per game if they trailed in their last game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced a 54-24 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.8 points on average but have lost by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +3
The Key: The Bulls haven't played since Nov. 2 when they blew a 20-point lead in a loss to the 76ers so they will be fresh and hungry when they hit the floor tonight. Indiana just played last night in Detroit so it is at a big disadvantage in terms of preparation. The Bulls will also be out to make a statement since they went just 1-3 against the Pacers last season. They did not have Rose, however, and are 14-6 against Indiana with Rose in the lineup. There are plenty of trends supporting this play too. Chicago is 33-12 ATS following an upset loss under coach Thibodeau. It has won by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Bulls are also 16-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses since the start of last season and 26-9 ATS after a loss by six points or less under Thibodeau. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points as the Bulls are in excellent position to hand Indiana its first loss of the season.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -121
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Houston, which spent a lot of energy trying to get back in the game last night in L.A. Then, it had to make the long flight up to Portland and will be up against a team that has had two full days to rest up and prepare. The Blazers defeated the reigning Western Conference champs in their last game so they will be lacking no confidence. They'll also be lacking no motivation as they were embarrassed with an 18-point loss the last time Houston visited. The Rockets struggled on the road last season, and that has continued this season. They were down by 19 in Utah in their first road game before rallying and then crushed in their second road game against the Clippers last night. The Rockets are 10-25 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread since the start of the 2011-12 season. They are also 9-23 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses during the same time frame. Take Portland.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers -2
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, look for the Cavs to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Cavs beat the Brooklyn at home in their first game of the season so they have already proven they can beat a more talented team than they'll see tonight on their home floor. Plus, they have had an extra day to rest their legs and game plan for the Timberwolves. Minnesota, on the other hand, just pulled off an upset win at Madison Square Garden yesterday so it has a quick turnaround. The Timberwolves are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 7-18 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 27-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ points per game since 1996. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +6.5
The Key: After a thrilling 1-point win over the reigning NBA champs, a game against the lowly Orlando Magic isn't going to get Brooklyn's juices flowing. Expect the Nets to come out flat here. While beating the Heat is certainly something to brag about, we can't forget that Brooklyn lost its only other road game of the season in Cleveland. We also can't forget that this team has a lot of new pieces, which likely means inconsistency early in the season. Brooklyn swept the Magic last season so Orlando will be lacking no motivation. The Nets are a soft 26-44 ATS after a cover since the 2011 season, and, zooming in, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Magic are off to a 3-0 ATS start, and I expect them to pick up another cover.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +6
The Key: Right away, one has to like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season are 40-12 ATS since 1996. This system has already produced a 2-0 ATS record this season. Houston is 2-0, but now it goes out on the road for the first time. The Rockets were a dismal 16-25 on the road last season, and they're visiting a team tonight that was 30-11 at home last season. Last season, the Rockets were only 4-14 ATS in road games versus teams that had a losing record, and they lost these games by 1.0 point on average. The Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Rockets are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +3
The Key: Cleveland's upset win over Brooklyn makes it a dead fade tonight. Consider that fading any team off an upset win in the first six games of the season, provided that team closed out last season with five or more consecutive losses, has produced a 30-8 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, the Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bobcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Charlotte lost by 2 and won by 7 in its two home games against the Cavs last season so I like our chances catching points here.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -9.5
The Key: Riding high off a shocking with over Miami, Philadelphia is prime for a letdown. Washington, meanwhile, will be extremely hungry after dropping its opener at Detroit. And, the fact it lost by double-digits the last time it hosted the 76ers adds fuel to the fire. Everything went right for the 76ers against the Heat. They raced out to a 19-0 lead, shot the lights out (53.7%) and benefited from 19 Miami turnovers. Additionally, they caught Miami at just the right as it was coming off a big win over Chicago and looking ahead to tonight's game against Brooklyn. It all goes south for Philly here against a hungry Washington squad. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Wizards are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. Lay the points.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Clippers -6.5
The Key: After laying an egg in Tuesday's opener, I expect the Clippers to be very focused and determined tonight. Historically speaking, this is a great spot for L.A. Favorites in the first six games of the season that check in off an upset loss as a road favorite (they were the designated road team in their opener) are 28-7 ATS since 1996 if they were a playoff team the previous season and lost four or more of their last five games. Teams fitting these specs have been favored by 6.7 points on average and have won 11.2 points on average. This awesome early season system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. The Clippers have had a day to gear up for this matchup while the Warriors played at home last night and then had to make the trip south. The Warriors won three of last season's four meetings, which provides the Clippers with added motivation tonight. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on 76ers +12
The Key: Miami came out flat as expected last night. However, it went nuts in the second quarter and finished 11 of 20 from 3-point range. Off that emotional statement win, on the road and playing back-to-back, I expect a much weaker performance from the Heat. Tonight's opponent won't get their juices flowing, which means Miami will already be looking ahead to Friday's game at Brooklyn. The often overvalued Heat have been a terrible investment following any kind of win. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a game where they covered the spread. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are an impressive 55-31 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Opening Night *CA$H COW* (TNT) on Bulls +4.5
The Key: Chicago will be the more motivated team here. Tonight is about celebrating last season for Miami, which will be getting its championship rings and raising its championship banner. For Chicago, on the other hand, tonight is about sending a message to the Heat. Even without Derrick Rose, the Bulls played Miami tough last season. They split the regular-season series 2-2, and the Bulls were the team that ended Miami's 27-game win streak. The Bulls have had some success against the Heat because of how hard they work at the defensive end. I expect a very gritty performance from Chicago here as they use last year's playoff loss to Miami as motivation. Offense was an issue at times for Chicago in that playoff series, but now Rose is back. Chicago is on a 20-9 ATS run in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. It is also 77-54 ATS in road games under coach Thibodeau. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Finals Game 7 "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Heat Under 189
The Key: It's hard for teams to play loose in Game 7 of the NBA Finals knowing what's at stake. We've seen a recent trend of teams struggling at the offensive end as a result. Some of the struggles can also be attributed to teams playing at a higher level on defense. We've seen only 174, 155 and 162 total points scored in the last three NBA Finals Game 7's. Playing the Under on all teams in the NBA Finals when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points has produced a 50-18 mark since 1996. We've seen just 180.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.

7* NBA Finals Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -5.5
The Key: San Antonio won't be able to recover from blowing an NBA title in Game 6. The Spurs appeared to have it in the bag up five with 28 seconds left, but they let it slip through their fingertips. Besides an emotional letdown, I expect a physical letdown from the Spurs. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker both logged big minutes in Game 6. With short recovery time, it will be tough for them to be at the top of their games tonight. Miami should be able to respond better to the short turnaround and will be lifted by the home crowd. The Heat are 46-7 at home where they carry a 10.5-pt average margin of victory. Also, home teams are 41-12 in the last 53 Game 7's. Lay the points.

7* NBA Finals Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -7
The Key: Miami hasn't lost consecutive games in these playoffs. It is a perfect 6-0 in the postseason following a loss and has won these games by an average of 20.7 points. Each of these wins have come by at least 11 points. Looking back further, the Heat haven't lost consecutive games since early January. They are 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss and have won these by an average of 19.5 points with the lowest winning margin being 10 points. The defending champs have answered the bell each time they've tasted defeat over the last five months, and I expect no different tonight on their home floor. Lay the points.

6* NBA Finals Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Spurs +1.5
The Key: Just like the Miami Heat, the Spurs have been incredibly resilient in these playoffs. San Antonio has not lost consecutive games this postseason and is a perfect 3-0 following its previous 3 postseason defeats. It has won these games by an average of 21.3 points. This is a game the Spurs know they must get because it will be extremely difficult for them to win two straight in Miami. The Spurs are 22-9 ATS all-time under coach Popovich when tied in a playoff series. They are 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS this season following a defeat at home and have won these 7 by an average of 14.0 points. Take the Spurs.

7* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs Under 188
The Key: I'm confident both teams will bring the "D" in this all-important Game 5. San Antonio knows it's not going to beat the Heat if it allows them to shoot 52.9% like it did in Game 4. The Spurs will tighten the screws defensively. I also expect them to do a much better job of taking care of the rock. San Antonio had 18 turnovers in Game 4. Those turnovers led to a lot of easy opportunities for Miami. If the Spurs cut down on the giveaways, they can keep the Heat out of transition offense. The Spurs hit 8 3-pointers in Game 4, but Miami did a much better job of chasing shooters off the 3-point line. I expect it to do an even better job in Game 5. The Heat made just 4 3-point shots in Game 4 and took just 12. I believe it will look to attack the basket again in Game 5, which bodes well for us because the 3-point shot can spoil the under. There is also a great amount of history on our side. Plays on the under on all teams in the NBA Finals when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points are 50-16 since 1996. In addition, plays under on all #1 seeds in the NBA Finals (Miami in this case) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points are 24-5 since 1996. The defensive intensity of both teams will be at its height in Game 5, and this one should come in under the total as a result. Take the Under.

7* NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +2
The Key: The defending champs won't go down without a fight. We saw the way they bounced back in Game 2, and I expect them to bounce back strong again. Miami hasn't lost 2 in a row since early January. It's a perfect 11-0 in its last 11 games following defeat with each of these 11 victories coming by double digits. It's 5-0 following a loss in these playoffs, winning these 5 by an average of 21.6 points. I expect Tony Parker to play in Game 4, but there's a good chance he'll be bothered by his hamstring. Plus, the odds are against Danny Green and Gary Neal going off again. LeBron James is the best player in the world, but he's yet to play like it in this series. That changes in Game 4. Take the Heat.

7* NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -2
The Key: The Heat have played 8 games since they last won consecutive contests. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Miami has lost its last two on the road by 7 and 14 points. Nothing will come easy in San Antonio where the Spurs are 6-1 in the playoffs and 41-7 on the season. They are also 12-2 in their last 14 home games versus the Heat. Look for the Spurs to bounce back strong in Game 3.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat -5.5
The Key: The Heat had won 4 straight against San Antonio before going down in Game 1, and I'm confident they will respond tonight. Miami is 14-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. It was won by an average score of 102.0 to 89.1 in this situation. Also, the Heat haven't lost consecutive games since early January. They are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 games following a loss and have won these games by an average of 19.9 points. Each of these wins came by at least 10 points. The Heat have responded in big ways all season following defeat, and I expect no different here. Lay the points.

7* NBA Finals *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +5
The Key: The Spurs should benefit from extra rest and preparation time in Game 1 as they go up against a Miami team that is coming off a grueling 7-game series. The Heat won Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in impressive fashion but are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Miami has struggled in Game 1s the last two rounds as well, losing to the Bulls and edging out the Pacers in OT by a single point. You might also recall that it lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season. Miami was hurt on the glass last round as it didn't have the bigs to match up with Indiana. The Spurs are bigger than Miami as well, and that bodes well for us here. Consider that San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game. The Spurs have defeated these teams by an average score of 102.0 to 94.9. This is the last rodeo for this veteran Spurs squad, and they'll leave it all on the floor in an attempt to add to their legacy with another championship. Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs 3rd Round Game of the Year on Heat -7
The Key: Miami will be able to deal with the pressure of a Game 7 on this big of a stage better than Indiana. In Game 7 of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat covered an 8-point spread with a 101-88 home win over Boston. The Big Three showed up in that game as they combined for 73 points. I believe LeBron James will finally get some help from D-Wade and Bosh tonight. Those two are just too good to lay another egg. Taking favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 85 points and are off an upset loss of 10 points or more on the road has produced a 24-4 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting in this system have been favored by 6.9 points on average and have won by 12.8 on average. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Heat are also 13-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 102.2 to 89.8 in this spot. Lay the points.

6* Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Heat -2.5
The Key: Indiana is a terrific basketball team, but it's missing one thing - LeBron James. James was the difference in Game 5, and he'll be the difference tonight. The Heat are 2-0 in closeout games in these playoffs and 5-0 in closeout games dating back to last year's playoffs. They won Game 6 at Indiana to win the series in last year's postseason, and I expect history to repeat itself. The Heat are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 18-8 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 25-40 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Heat Under 185.5
The Key: We saw 191 total points scored in Game 4, and these teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of the last 6 meetings. And yet oddsmakers have come up with a number of 185.5? The books are begging for the money to come in on the over, but we won't oblige them. The defensive intensity of this series will be at an all-time high tonight, and this one should find its way under the number as a result. Both teams have played to the over in their last 5 games. However, plays "under" on any team after 5 or more consecutive overs, provided it is a good team that outscores opponents by 3.0 points per game or more, are 156-96 since 1996. This system, which applies to both teams, is 10-5 this season. Also, plays "under" on all teams when total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 104-64 since 1996. We've seen an average posted total of 184.5 in these games but have seen just 181.3 total points scored on average. Take the Under.

6* NBA Playoffs Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Pacers +3
The Key: I'll gladly take the Pacers catching points at home in this bounce back spot. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Despite the Game 3 defeat, the Pacers have still won 2 of 3 at home against the Heat this season with 2 of those wins coming by double digits. They may be down 1-2 in this series, but one of those defeats came by a single point in OT. Take the points.

7* Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185.5
The Key: Indiana knows it must play better defensively if it's going to win this series. After allowing the Heat to shoot 54.5% from the field in Game 3, expect the best defensive team in the NBA to tighten the screws tonight. The Pacers have allowed just 90.1 ppg at home on 41.4% shooting on the season. The Heat are on a 73-43 Unders run in road games versus teams that allow 91 points or less per game. It is also worth noting that Indiana is on a 56-24 Unders run when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Miami is on a 59-33 Unders run in games following a blowout win of 15 points or more. Bet the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -2.5
The Key: The Grizzlies are down 0-3, but this series has been much closer than that as they lost the last two games in OT. They aren't about to roll over here. That's not the personality of this team. Memphis is the first team in NBA history to fall behind 0-2 and win four straight by double digits. It pulled off that feat in the first round against the Clippers. Also, it hasn't been swept in the postseason since 2006. The Spurs caught a break with there being 3 days in between Game 2 and 3. They aren't as fortunate here with only 1 day in between games, and I expect them to feel the effects of the Game 3 overtime contest more than Memphis, which is younger and will be able to feed off the energy of the crowd. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. They are also 7-0 ATS this season when they check in with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. They have won by an average score of 92.0 to 82.6 in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat pk
The Key: Miami hasn't lost consecutive games since early January. It is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following a defeat, and I expect this trend to continue. It is also worth noting that the Heat are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games, and that Indiana is 3-11 ATS this season following a win by 6 points or less. The Pacers have actually lost by an average of 2.3 points in this situation. In addition, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 25-6 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this situation are winning by 6.6 points on average. LeBron James failed down the stretch in Game 2, but I don't see it happening again. Plus, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh won't shoot a combined 42.8% from the field again. Both players shot over 50% during the regular season. I also expect the Heat to pick up the defensive intensity after allowing Indiana to shoot 50.0% in Game 2. Take Miami.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies -5.5
The Key: This is basically a must-win game for Memphis given the history of teams facing 0-3 deficits, and I expect it to rise to the occasion. The Grizzlies erased a 13-point 4th-quarter deficit in Game 2 and nearly pulled it out in overtime despite shooting only 34.0% from the field. The comeback speaks volumes about what this team is capable of doing defensively, and I believe it will tighten the screws even more in Game 3. Down 0-2 to the Clippers in the first round, Memphis responded with a 94-82 home win in Game 3 and never lost again in the series. After losing Game 1 to the Thunder, it bounced back to win four straight. You can be rest assured that Memphis still believes it can win this series. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, the home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with a 9.4-point average winning margin. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7
The Key: Indiana did everything it wanted to do in Game 1, and it still wasn't enough. Not winning that game will come back to haunt the Pacers as I believe the Heat will take things up a notch tonight. Miami is going to shoot 27.8% from 3-point range again tonight. This is a team that averages 39.8% from long range at home on the season. The Heat aren't going to shoot 64.0% from the foul line either. They average 77.0% from the charity stripe at home. I also don't see Miami committing 20 turnovers again considering they average just 13.0 a game. The Heat are 42-5 at home on the season and have won these games by an average score of 105.7 to 94.9. The home team is 4-0 in the last meetings between these teams with these wins coming by an average of 9.5 points. Also, Miami is 7-1 in its last 8 home games versus the Pacers with the wins coming by an average of 14.0 points. Miami is 32-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, and Indiana is 8-17 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7.5
The Key: Miami came out flat in Game 1 of its last series and lost that game to Chicago. It also found itself in a 2-1 hole in last year's playoff series with Indiana. Both of these things assure us the Heat will be very focused heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The home team went 3-0 during the regular season with each of these wins coming by at least 10 points. Miami won its lone regular season home game against the Pacers by 14 points. It is 6-1 in its last 7 home games against the Pacers with the 6 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points. Indiana has struggled on the road all season. It is just 2-6 in its last 8 road games with all of the losses coming by double digits. The Pacers are 7-17 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are 8-19 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons while Miami is 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Heat are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +5.5
The Key: Memphis is incredibly resilient. It has lost consecutive games just once in these playoffs, and it lost by only 2 points in that second loss. Those 2 defeats came in its first two playoff games. The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS since. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. 3 of 4 regular-season meetings between these teams were decided by 4 points or fewer, and I expect another close game here as the Grizzlies, who are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, tighten the screws defensively. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They are also 17-5 ATS under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -4.5
The Key: The Grizzlies are 0-2 in Game 1s in these playoffs, losing them by an average of 11.5 points, while the Spurs are 2-0 in Game 1s, winning them by an average of 7.0 points. The biggest reason why the Spurs have jumped out to 1-0 series leads is because they've played their Game 1s at home where they are 39-7 on the season. The Grizzlies have played both of theirs on the road. Home court has certainly mattered when these two do battle as the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 8.0 points. The Spurs are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus the Grizzlies and have won these by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers Over 178.5
The Key: Plays on the over on all teams that check in off a road loss of 10 points or more and are playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 82-38 since 1996 when the total 179.5 points or less. This system is a perfect 5-0 the last 3 seasons. The over is also 11-2 in the Pacers' last 13 games following a loss and 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We saw 160 total points in Game 5, but Indiana was 19 of 33 from the free throw line and made just 6 3-point shots. It has made at least 8 3's in each of the first 4 games of the series. While I expect Indiana to shoot better at home, I also expect the Knicks to continue the offensive improvement they showed in Game 5. They know they need to push the ball to be successful. The pace should be faster tonight than it was in the previous two games in Indiana. Take the Over.

7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Knicks -5
The Key: Back home and needing a win to stay alive, I fully expect the Knicks to rise to the occasion. Indiana won Games 3 and 4 at home by double digits, but the Knicks are on a 22-8 ATS run when checking in off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Plus, the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings. These 8 wins have come by an average of 14.6 points with all of them coming by at least 5. It is also worth noting that the Knicks are 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4
The Key: The defending Western Conference champs aren't going to go down without a fight. They are down 1-3 in the series but could easily be up 3-1 had Kevin Durant been able to close out games. Durant can't be at all happy with how he's performed late in games, and I expect him to respond tonight as he feeds off the energy of the home crowd. The Thunder are an impressive 16-6 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average score of 106.4 to 94.0 in this situation. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +14.5
The Key: The Bulls aren't winning this series, but this game is about pride. They were brutally embarrassed last time out as Miami held them to 25.7% shooting and 65 points. Chicago will leave it all on the floor tonight to save face and to make Miami earn the "W". The Bulls are an awesome 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with triple revenge. The Heat are 0-7 ATS in home games this season following 2 or more consecutive road wins. They have won in this situation, but only by 2.0 points on average. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Warriors/Spurs Over 194.5
The Key: These teams have finished under the total in 3 consecutive games as each has shot below 40% twice during this stretch. I don't see the cold shooting continuing. Offensively, Golden State has been just as good on the road this season. It averages 101.7 ppg on the road, which is what it averages on the season. However, it isn't nearly as good defensively on the road where it has allowed 103.5 ppg. The Spurs are much better offensively at home where they average 104.5 ppg on 49.1% shooting. 13 of the last 15 meetings between these teams in San Antonio have gone over the posted total for this game. Take the Over.

7* Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +5.5
The Key: The Pacers held the Knicks to only 71 points in Game 3, but there is plenty of history supporting a bounce-back from New York tonight. Road teams that check in off a road loss where they were held to less than 80 points, provided they are playing 6 games or less in 14 days, are 27-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Knicks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game while the Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. New York is also a fantastic 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +4.5
The Key: I expect the Thunder to even this series tonight, but I'll take the points for insurance. Oklahoma City has lost 3 consecutive games only once this season, and it lost the third game during that stretch by just 3 points on the road versus Houston. The Thunder have lost consecutive games 3 other times and responded with a win in each of these instances. OKC has been very resilient over the years, as evidenced by the fact its 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a loss. The Thunder have also been outstanding in revenge spots, going 106-66 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Brooks. They are 45-28 ATS under Brooks when playing with double revenge. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are on a 49-31 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Under 187
The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense so they are not at all happy with the fact they have allowed Miami to shoot 60% and 50% the last two games. Having had two days to rest and prepare, and knowing they need a win here to have a chance at winning the series, I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Bulls. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is also 9-1 under the last two seasons off a home loss by 10 points or more. It's also worth noting that the Bulls are on a 31-15 unders run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 100 points or more on them. The extra rest should help Miami's defense too. The under is 7-1 in the Heat's last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Plus, Miami won't be able to keep up its hot shooting. It's on a 34-16 unders run following 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. Take the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5
The Key: I expect the Warriors to bounce back here. They will be lacking no confidence because of how well they performed in the first two games of the series. Plus, I believe they'll be the fresher team. This will be the fourth game in six days for these teams, which favors the more youthful Warriors. Stephen Curry is listed as probable, but I believe Golden State has enough fire power to get the job done even if he's limited by his ankle. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. The Warriors are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Golden State.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4
Bottom Line: The Pacers were crushed in Game 2 as they turned the ball over 21 times and gave up 10 3-point makes. Look for them to come storming back in Game 3 as they take better care of the rock and tighten the screws on their perimeter defense. Indiana only averages 14 turnovers at home on the season. Also, it ranked No. 1 in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season, limiting foes to 32.7% from beyond the arc. The Pacers have held the Knicks to 4 and 5 3-point makes, respectively, in their last 2 visits to Indiana. The Pacers are 14-5 ATS in home games this season versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 101.4 to 89.3. This trend says a lot about how well they defend the 3-point shot. The Pacers are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings with all 6 wins coming by at least 5 points. Mike Woodson's teams are 4-15 ATS all-time in road playoff games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5
The Key: I'll gladly take the points with the Thunder as they are the more talented offensive team (even without Westbrook) and just as good, if not better, than Memphis defensively. The Thunder held opponents to 42.5 percent shooting during the regular season. That mark was good for No. 2 in the league. Memphis held foes to 43.5 percent. The Thunder won 2 of 3 in Houston without Westbrook in their first series, and I like their chances here even against a better defensive team. After all, Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS under coach Brooks in road games versus team that hold their opponents to 91.0 ppg or less. The Thunder have defeated these teams by an average score of 98.6 to 90.8. It's also worth noting that the Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record, and the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +2.5
The Key: The Spurs are fortunate to be level at 1-1 in the series as they are yet to play well. They've allowed Golden State to shoot 48.1 percent while they've shot just 41.6 percent. I expect that to change tonight. After suffering its first defeat of the playoffs, I expect this veteran San Antonio bunch to play with a heightened sense of urgency and purpose. The Spurs are a proud bunch, and they aren't about to roll over for the new kids on the block. I'm confident they will really pick things up on the defensive end. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing no more than their 3rd game in 10 days, are 24-6 ATS since 1996. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS the last 2 seasons following an upset loss at home and 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. The Spurs have won 7 of their last 9 at Golden State. One of those losses came in OT. The other came in a game Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobli didn't play in. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Warriors/Spurs Under 204.5
The Key: 212 total points were scored in regulation in Game 1, but I'm confident these teams won't come close to that tonight. The Spurs allowed Golden State to shoot 51% from the field, a figure that is completely unacceptable in their book. Prior to Game 1, these two hadn't exceeded 197 total points in their previous three meetings in San Antonio while the Spurs held the Warriors to 46.2% shooting or worse in each. It is also worth noting that these two combined for 24 3-point makes in Game 1. That's 8 more than they average combined. The Spurs are 7-2 Under in their last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-2 Under this season in home games after scoring 105 points or more. Lastly, plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 that have gone over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 43-12 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total for these games has been 204.1, but the teams fitting into this situation have combined for only 197.5 points on average. This system is 8-1 this season. Take the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -12
The Key: Miami looked like a team that hadn't played a game in a week in Game 1. It shot 39.7% from the field and was outrebounded badly. I expect Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call for the defending champs. While this may seem like a lot of points to lay, consider that Chicago was blown out twice in Brooklyn in its opening series by 17 and 19 points. Also, consider that Miami has two wins of 12 points or more against Chicago this season. By coming back with a line this large, the books clearly want the money coming in on the Bulls. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -6
The Key: Look for the Knicks to bounce back strong tonight. They have already lost the home-court advantage and know they can't afford to be down 0-2 heading to Indiana so I expect a very inspired performance from them here. One loss doesn't buck a trend. The home team has still won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the wins coming by 13.8 points on average. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. The New York defense wasn't up to snuff in Game 1, allowing the Pacers to score 102 points on 48.7 percent shooting. I expect that to change tonight. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that they allowed to score 100 points or more. The Knicks are 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -8.5
The Key: The Spurs have a huge advantage in terms of freshness and preparation as they haven't played since Apr. 28. The Spurs made easy work of the Lakers, which had no answer for their balanced offensive attack. I expect a Golden State team that allows 103.2 ppg on the road to struggle to stop the Spurs tonight. San Antonio, on the other hand, holds its foes to just 93.9 ppg at home. Much has been made of Stephen Curry and these Warriors, but San Antonio is very deep and very experienced. I don't expect Curry to be as effective in this series as Tony Parker is one of the quickest players in the NBA. Having to defend Parker will really wear out Curry, which will affect him at the offensive end. The Spurs are 29-0 in their last 29 home games versus Golden State, winning these by an average of 16.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -5.5
The Key: We saw Indiana's road struggles in the first round, losing two of three in Atlanta by double digits. In fact, the Pacers are just 6-15 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. New York, on the other hand, is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus winning teams, including 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Knicks are also 28-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, including 19-8 ATS during this span as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with these wins coming by 13.8 points. It is significant that New York held the Pacers to 80 points in the most recent meeting because Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where it was held to 85 points or less. Lay the points.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Nets Under 181.5
The Key: Expect a defensive battle to come in under the number in this win-and-advance Game 7. Consider that plays "under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided it is a matchup of two teams with winning records, are 34-14 (70.8%) the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 54-31 "under" when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Thibodeau. While I expect Chicago to bring the "D", it will be challenged offensively. Leading scorer Luol Deng is expected to miss with an illness, and Kirk Hinrich, who leads the team with 5.2 assists per game, is listed as questionable with a calf injury. The Bulls know they don't stand a chance if the game turns into a track meet so I expect them to take the air out of the ball nearly every possession. That's how they won Game 2 in Brooklyn when just 172 total points were scored. Bet the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1
The Key: Russell Westbrook's injury has made a lopsided series more interesting, but I believe Kevin Durant and company will get the job done tonight. Only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Thunder won Game 3 in Houston without Westbrook so they won't be lacking confidence. Plus, it's about time that coach Kevin McHale's strategy to double Durant backfires. Durant's going to get his teammates open shots, and I expect them to do a better job of knocking them in tonight. I expect a much better game from Kevin Martin, who reached double figures in scoring in each of the first four games of the series before scoring only 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting in Game 5. He very well could be the difference-maker for Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder are 41-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Brooks. They are also 42-23 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. Lastly, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Thunder.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +6.5
The Key: The Clippers have lost three straight since winning the first two games of the series, but I expect them to take Memphis right down to the wire in this do-or-die Game 6. This is a lot of points for L.A. to be catching even if Blake Griffin isn't able to go. The Clippers are still the more talented team offensively, and they are capable of playing better defense. They ranked in the top 10 in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense during the regular season, and I expect a very strong effort defensively in this elimination game. The two days in between games should help as the Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Clipps are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. L.A. is 39-24 ATS the last two seasons when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, and this trend tightens up to 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge. They have won by an average score of 97.5 to 92.5 in these 25 instances. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks pk
The Key: Boston has saved face by winning the last two games, but only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Boston defense hasn't been forcing turnovers. The Knicks have been dominating the turnover battle, which is a big reason why they took a 3-0 lead. It is a good sign that they had just 8 turnovers last game because Boston is 0-7 ATS this season following a game where it forced 8 turnovers or fewer. It has lost by an average score of 101.9 to 94.7 in these spots. Because New York is winning the turnover battle, it comes down to making shots. The Knicks have shot under 40% the last two games and still managed to play Boston close. New York is the more talented, more youthful, deeper team, and I'm willing to bet its shots fall tonight. Take New York.

7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nets/Bulls Under 184
The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense. This is a team that ranked 29th in scoring with 93.2 ppg during the regular season but third in scoring defense with 92.9 ppg allowed. After holding the Nets around 35% shooting in Games 2 and 3, the Bulls have allowed them to shoot around 50% in Games 4 and 5. They especially can't be happy with the Game 5 performance because they had an opportunity to close out the series. Rest assured, Chicago will tighten the screws with an opportunity to win the series in front of their home fans. Coach Tom Thibodeau is known as a defensive guru, and the Bulls are 17-4 Under when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent under his watch. They are also 11-2 Under since coach Thibs took over after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Bet the Under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -7
The Key: Home court has been huge when these two Eastern Conference foes get together. The home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.6 points. The Pacers' 4 home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 12.3 points. Going back even further, we find that the home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and the favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Hawks are on a 10-26 ATS slide in road playoff games. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -7.5
The Key: The Nuggets have lost 3 in a row and are now on the brink of elimination, but I fully expect them to respond at home where they are 39-4 on the season with a 10.0-point average margin of victory. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing with triple revenge and has won by an average of 10.9 points in these spots. Golden State, on the other hand, is 9-18 ATS this season after 2 or more consecutive wins and 2-12 ATS the last 2 seasons off 2 or more consecutive home wins. It is also 9-22 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. We saw the way Brooklyn and Houston responded on their home floors while facing elimination last night, and I believe Denver will rise to the occasion as well. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Rockets +2
The Key: The Rockets took the Thunder down to the wire in games 2 and 3, and I expect them to break through win a win tonight. Houston is showing terrific value as a home underdog considering it is 11-2 ATS all-time when catching points at home under coach Kevin McHale. This trend tightens up to a perfect 8-0 ATS if they're catching 3 points or fewer. They have won these 8 contests by an average score of 104.8 to 98.6. The Thunder jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, but the Rockets actually won quarters 2-4. Houston continues its solid play tonight and earns the "W".

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers +2
The Key: Expect the Pacers to respond following the beat-down they received in Game 3. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, road teams like Indiana that are coming off a blowout loss of 15 points or more are 70-39 ATS the last 5 seasons as long as they outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game. The Hawks are 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a blowout win of 15 points or more and 1-12 ATS this season in home games following a home win. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -5.5
The Key: I expect the Nets to take care of business at home in this do-or-die Game 5. Chicago won Game 4 in triple-OT but will pay for it here as it is the more banged-up team. Kirk Hinrich, who had 18 points and 14 assists in over 59 minutes in Game 4, is listing as questionable due to a left calf issue. He is so important to the Bulls. It will be a huge blow if he can't go, and it's still a big blow if he plays at less than 100 percent. Joakim Noah is probable, but is battling chronic pain in his right foot, pain that has to be increased after the stress he put on it in Game 4. The Bulls have been a poor investment all season following a cover. In fact, they are 13-24 ATS this season following an ATS victory. More recently, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -118
The Key: Following back-to-back defeats, I expect the Nuggets to want this one just a little bit more. They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Plus, Golden State is only 11-23 ATS under coach Mark Jackson following 2 or more consecutive wins. It has lost by an average score of 102.8 to 99.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting the Denver is 37-21 ATS under coach George Karl when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 104.6 to 98.4 in this situation. The Warriors have shot out of their minds the past two games, and I don't think they can keep it up as Denver tightens the screws on the defensive end. I also like the fact Denver is turning over Golden State at a high rate and is scoring off those turnovers. Take the Nuggets.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks Under 190.5
The Key: The first two games of this series have gone way over. We saw 197 points in Game 1 and 211 in Game 2. In fact, we have seen at least 194 total points scored between these teams in five straight meetings. Judging by the number, the books clearly want the action on the over. I'm not going to oblige them. The matchups in Atlanta have been much lower scoring. These two have combined for 184 points or fewer in 4 of the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Indiana is 55-37 under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is on a 27-9 unders run in home playoff games and a 19-6 unders run in first round in home playoff games. The Hawks are also on a 22-8 unders run in home games following 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Additionally, playing the under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, provided they are playing 4 games or fewer in a 10-day span, carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing against a team that has a winning record, are 144-84 since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 this season. Bet the under.

7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -137
The Key: I love Atlanta to win this game. Indiana has struggled on the road throughout the season. In fact, it's just 5-13 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. It has lost these contests by 6.3 points on average. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 1-8 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3 points or less and have lost these games by an average of 5.9 points. The Pacers are even on a 3-13 ATS slide in road games following 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average of 5.5 points in this situation. The home team has dominated this matchup. The home side is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with these wins coming by 10.2 points on average. Going back further, the home team is 11-1 in the last 12. Lastly, and most importantly, the Hawks are 11-0 in their last 11 home games versus Indiana. These 11 victories have come by an average of 10.7 points. Take the Hawks.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +5
The Key: The Lakers will be without Steve Blake, and Steve Nash and Jodie Meeks are currently listed as doubtful. Still, L.A. is showing value catching this many points at home where it is 6-0 in its last 6 with a 6.8-point average winning margin. In addition, L.A. is 13-1 in its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. Since that loss was within the number listed for this matchup, we have a perfect 14-0 trend on our hands here. It is worth noting that one of the Lakers' recent home wins came as a 3.5-point dog against the Spurs. The Lakers won that game without Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash and with poor games from Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace. While L.A. could be shorthanded in the backcourt, I'm a big believer in Darius Morris. He is a good passer and with enough talent and court-savvy to get Gasol and Dwight Howard the ball in good scoring positions. Chris Duhon is a terrific defender, and Andrew Goudelock, the D-League MVP, will be out to prove he's an NBA-caliber player when his number is called. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -2.5
The Key: The Celtics have dropped the first two games of the series in New York, but they are a completely different team at home where they have won 14 of their last 18. They are 13-5 ATS in these games. Boston has also won 13 of its last 15 at home versus the Knicks. The Knicks have plenty of scoring power, but Boston is much better defensively at home where it is holding opponents to just 93.9 ppg on 42.8% shooting. The C's are also much better offensively at home where they are scoring 98.5 ppg on 47.7% shooting. This is a big reason why Boston is 9-1 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games played in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 99.0 points or more per game. The Celtics have won these contests by an average score of 97.3 to 88.5. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by coach Mike Woodson are 2-14 ATS all-time in road playoff games and 1-5 ATS all-time in the third game of a series. Lay the points.