7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Suns Over 203

The Key: When these teams met in Detroit last month, we saw just 174 total points scored, but they combined for only 33 points from beyond the arc and only 23 points from the free throw line. Keep in mind these teams average 54 points combined per game on three-pointers and 33 points on free throws. In other words, they are averaging 31 more points per game in these areas than we saw in the first meeting. Add those 31 points to the total score of the first meeting, and we get 205. So we are getting a good number here. Plus, we can also take into consideration that neither team is defending well. The Pistons have allowed 103.6 points over their last eight games, and the Suns are allowing 106.7 points over their last nine games. Phoenix is 8-1 over this season versus teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more, and we have seen an average of 219.9 total points scored in these contests. The Suns are 9-1 over the last two season when playing against teams with a win percentage of 25% or worse, and we have seen 213.2 total points scored in these games. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Rockets/Kings Over 196

The Key: We saw just 191 total points scored when these teams met in Houston last month. The Kings went to DeMarcus Cousins in the post a lot in that game, but they'll be looking to run more without him in the lineup. The Rockets just played last night, and the Kings are playing for the third time in four days. Neither team has fresh legs, and defense is the first thing to go when that's the case. Houston is 18-4 over off a road loss over the last two seasons, and we have seen an average of 212.7 total points scored in these contests. Also, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Pacers +7

The Key: The Pacers are extremely disappointed with how they performed last game. They returned home following an 0-4 road trip looking to get back on track but were hit in the mouth by Atlanta instead. I expect an inspired performance in the wake of that loss. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day of rest. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Central division opponents. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Hornets -2.5

The Key: This is a superior spot for Charlotte, which has had the last four days off to get healthy and to get prepared for this matchup. Boston is playing its third game in four days with the last one going to double overtime. The Hornets will have the fresher legs. Boston has been playing uptempo basketball, trying to outscore its opponents, but Charlotte has done an excellent job controlling the tempo against such teams and is on a 27-14 ATS run versus up-tempo teams that average 83 shots per game or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers -2.5

The Key: Motivated by three consecutive blowout losses, the Lakers should take care of business against a Sacramento team that hasn't been the same since the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. The Lakers should also benefit from fresher legs. Sacramento played last night while L.A. had the night off. The Lakers have had plenty of success against the Kings and are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Heat +5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Phoenix, which will be playing a second game in as many nights and a fourth in five days. To make matters worse, last night's game with the Clippers went to overtime so I don't see the Suns having enough left in the tank to cover this number. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +7.5

The Key: This line is inflated due to LA's run of five consecutive covers. Consider that the Clippers are just 22-43 ATS since 1996 after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The Clippers are also 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning road record. The Suns are coming off a loss in Houston but are an impressive 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games following an ATS loss. That game, however, was Phoenix's second in as many days. While playing three games in four days is no picnic, the Suns have thrived in such spots under Hornacek, going 22-10 ATS and winning by an average score of 105.7 to 101.9. They are also 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 games when playing on one day of rest. The Suns are 31-16 ATS as a dog under Hornacek and 23-11 ATS as a road underdog under their current coach. You want to take road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed by 15 points or more at halftime of the previous game. Doing so has produced an 81-36 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +5.5

The Key: Atlanta is 12-6 but wouldn't be if it played in the much stronger Western Conference. The Hawks are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 versus the West and 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the NBA Northwest division. The Nuggets are off a bad loss at Washington where they couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the performance was an outlier because they had been played exceptional in their previous nine games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day of rest. You want to back road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced an 81-35 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is just 11-23 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pistons -9

The Key: The Pistons have been a major disappointment thus far, but this is a fantastic spot for them. Not only will Detroit be motivated by a 10-game slide, but it will also be fueled by an embarrassing 25-point loss the last time it faced the 76ers. The Pistons have had two days to regroup and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest. The 76ers have covered the spread in six of their last seven and are starting to lose value as a result. This is the second game of a back-to-back for them, a spot that hasn't treated the well. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 17-32 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Timberwolves +7

The Key: Off a big win over Memphis and with a matchup against Phoenix tomorrow night, Houston won't give Minnesota its full attention. The Rockets have a 12-point win over Minnesota this season in Mexico City so it will be easy for them to look right past the Timberwolves here. I expect the T-Wolves to be extremely motivated after losing to the then 0-17 76ers. That's the type of embarrassing loss that gets a teams attention. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, you want to fade Friday night favorites that are off a home win against a division rival as doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV Annihilator on Knicks +7.5

The Key: The Cavs haven't played on the road since Nov. 21, and they are just 3-3 in their previous six road games with just one of the wins coming by more than this number. The Knicks won the first meeting, spoiling LeBron James' homecoming. While Cleveland will be out for revenge, that angle has been figured into this number, overfigured. The Knicks will be highly motivated too as they try to end a five-game skid. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Take the points.

6* NBA *SITUATIONAL SLAM DUNK* on Hornets +3.5

The Key: This is a favorable situation for Charlotte. The Hornets will undoubtedly be the fresher side having had the last three days off. The Bulls, on the other hand, will be feeling the effects of last night's double-OT contest with Dallas. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Bulls are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5

The Key: Boston is coming off a 22-point loss to the reigning NBA champion Spurs, which is actually a good thing for us. Consider that road teams off a blowout loss of 15 points that average 103.0 ppg or more on the season are 123-70 (64%) ATS since 1996. The Hawks are off a 30-point win over Charlotte and the game was never in doubt as they led big at the half. That bodes well for us too as fading home teams that led their previous game by 20 points or more at halftime has produced a 98-56 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3

The Key: The Nuggets are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won six of their last seven games. Utah has lost five straight and will be hungry as a result. I really like its chances of winning this one outright considering it has won 31 of the last 38 at home in the series. The Jazz are 14-3 ATS the last three seasons after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games. In addition, when the line is +3 to -3 you want to fade road teams off two or more consecutive overs if they average 102.0 ppg or more and are playing a team that allows 98.0-102.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Kings Under 195

The Key: The Grizzlies combined with Portland for 211 points in their last game. The Kings combined with San Antonio for 216. And, these teams combined for 221 points in the season's first meeting. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. Memphis has been at its best defensively on the road where it is giving up only 89.9 ppg. It is also worth noting that the Grizzlies haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging just 94.5 ppg. The Kings have been a far better defensive team at home where they are holding opponents to 97.2 ppg. Prior to this season's meeting, these teams had combined for 188 points or less in four straight matchups. The under is 6-0 in the Kings' last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. The under is 3-0-1 in the Grizzlies' last four games following a win of more than 10 points and 3-0-1 in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 18-3 under as a road favorite under coach Joerger, and we have seen just 182.3 total points scored on average in these games.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +6

The Key: This is a good spot to back the Jazz. The Clippers are off a big win in Houston last night, which puts them in danger of a letdown. Furthermore, this is their second road game in as many days and their fifth in seven days. This is the last game of a seven-game road trip so the Clippers will be happy to return home and will likely be more focused on that rather than the task at hand, especially since they have won 10 straight against the Jazz. Utah will be highly motivated to end that streak, and it will be the fresher side having had the last two days off. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a  loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 4-17-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Utah. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +9

The Key: The Hornets will be highly motivated as they look to bring their seven-game losing streak to an end. Adding fuel to the fire is a 112-87 loss at Golden State Nov. 11. I expect the Hornets to show much better at home where they have won or lost by fewer than nine points in nine straight against the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves +1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves. They have had the last three days off to prepare for this contest while Milwaukee just played last night. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three days' rest or more. The Bucks defeated the Pistons by 12 points last night, but they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 following a win and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 following a win of more than 10 points. The T-Wolves lost by 12 to Sacramento the last time they took the floor, but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. Milwaukee hasn't been the same team on the road where it has lost five of eight. It's also struggled against Minnesota. It is 0-4 in the last four meetings overall and 4-13 in its last 17 games in Minnesota. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the T-Wolves.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Kings/Pelicans Under 203.5

The Key: We saw 206 total points scored when these teams faced off in Sacramento last Tuesday. However, we saw just 185 and 199 total points scored in the previous two meetings. Both teams will benefit from two days of rest and game prep and the fact they just faced each other. I just don't see the offenses being as efficient here. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Kings' last 20 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in the Pelicans' last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the total is 200.0 to 209.5 in November games, you want to play the under on all teams (Sacramento in this case) with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Doing so has produced a 64-31 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average total of 204.5 points in this situation but only 199.1 total points scored on average. Take the Under.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6

The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bucks +3

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Wizards as they hit the road following last night's big win over Cleveland. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win, and they'll have a tough time getting up for a Milwaukee team they defeated by 11 points earlier this month. That loss, along with last night's ugly performance in Toronto, assures us the Bucks will be motivated. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +8.5

The Key: Off a big win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup won't get San Antonio's competitive juices flowing. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS at home this season, and it has been competitive against the Spurs. The T-Wolves are 3-2 in the last five meetings and 2-0 in the last two home meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1

The Key: The Bulls are off a blowout win over the Clippers but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. The Kings are off a loss to New Orleans but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Bulls are 6-0 on the road, but the Kings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record. The Kings have performed well against the Bulls, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning their two home meetings during this span by 42 and 29 points. Take the Kings.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3

The Key: The Pistons have been a poor investment in the early going, but they have quietly covered the spread in three of their last four and are showing value in the home underdog role tonight. I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Pistons following their worst defensive performance of the season. After holding Oklahoma City and Memphis below 40% shooting, they allowed the Magic to shoot 51.9%. The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and have allowed their last two opponents to shoot above 51%. They have allowed 47% shooting or higher in five of their last seven games so there's a good chance the Pistons get it going offensively. Odds makers are certainly expecting to see a little offense tonight with the total set at 204.5. That bodes well for us as Van Gundy's teams are 30-11 ATS all-time in home games when the total is 200.0 to 204.5. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pelicans +3

The Key: New Orleans will have no trouble getting up for a Sacramento team that has won the last three meetings. The Pelicans played last night in Portland but are 4-1 ATS in their last five games without rest. The Kings have had the last two days off but are 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on two days' rest. Sacramento is off a big win over the Spurs, but it is on an 8-19 ATS slide at home following a win. When the line is +3 to -3 in the first half of the season, you want to fade home teams off an upset win as doing so has produced a 53-25 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +4

The Key: The Hornets were pummeled at Golden State last game, but they were in a tough spot - playing their second road game in as many nights against one of the best teams in the NBA. That loss will have them motivated here. The Hornets have been one of the best bounce-back teams in the league, going 31-15 ATS following a loss since the start of last season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points. Much of Dallas' early success can be attributed to how well it's taken care of the basketball. Recent history suggests it won't matter tonight. The Hornets are 11-1 ATS in home games versus teams that commit an average of 14.0 turnovers per game of less under coach Clifford. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 104.3 to 96.0. Also, the home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings with Charlotte winning by 25 the last time it hosted. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +8

The Key: The Lakers are 1-8 but are showing value catching eight points. They have been playing much better ball of late, losing by more than eight points just once in their last five games. Plus, LA was blown out at Golden State earlier this season and will be looking for payback. The Warriors just played yesterday and blew out Charlotte, and they have four days off after this game so I wouldn't be surprised if they start their vacation a little prematurely. You want to fade road favorites in Sunday games that are called for at least two more fouls per game than their opponents. Doing so has produced a 9-1 ATS mark over the last five seasons and a 35-12 ATS record since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +11.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Minnesota's ugly 48-point loss to New Orleans as well as Dallas' lopsided 53-point win over Philadelphia. Right away, I like the fact that fading home teams that led by 20 points or more at halftime of their previous game has produced a 97-54 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, you want to back double digit underdogs that have lost by 18 points or more against the spread in their last three games when they are up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 points or more in its last three games. Doing so has produced a 40-12 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +3.5

The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indiana, which is off a big win over Miami and plays in Chicago tomorrow. It won't give a Denver squad that has lost six in a row its full attention. The Nuggets are a better team than their record indicates, and I expect them to show that here in a matchup against a weaker Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Eastern Conference while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus the West. The Nuggets are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana. You want to back underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss at home if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 29-8 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Raptors Under 197

The Key: Hard-fought defensive battles have been the norm in this series recently, and I expect no different tonight. We are getting a great number here because both teams have been overs machines early on, but the reality is these teams haven't combined for more than 186 points in their last five meetings. We have seen just 177.4 total points scored on average during this span. The Bulls jumped out to a big lead in their last game against Detroit with a 60-point first-half performance. That bodes well for us as Chicago is 8-0 under the last three seasons after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. We have seen only 173.3 total points scored on average in this spot. Take the under.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +7

The Key: The Pistons have yet to cover a spread this season, and we are catching a very generous number as a result. The Pistons match up well with the Wizards and have won or lost by seven points or fewer in 18 of the last 20 meetings. Washington has won its first two at home, but the Pistons are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Mavericks -6.5

The Key: I'm not yet sold on the Kings, and it appears odds makers aren't either, installing them as a pretty hefty road dog despite their 5-2 start. The Mavericks are off a loss, but they are a team that responds following defeats, perhaps better than any other team. In fact, Dallas has followed up its previous two losses with wins of 18 and 23 points, and it is an impressive 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games following a loss. The Mavs are 20-0 in their last 20 home games against the Kings, winning them by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the number.

6* NBA Annihilator on Knicks +1.5

The Key: Look for the Knicks to bring their four-game losing streak to an end here. These teams just played Saturday in Atlanta with the Hawks winning, but now they hit the road where they are 0-3. Atlanta is just 8-26 in its last 34 road games in the series. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover. The Knicks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 14-3 ATS the last three seasons following three consecutive road games and 33-17 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where it allowed 100 points or more. Take New York.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +1

The Key: This is a tough encore for Golden State as it goes on the road with no rest following yesterday's big win over Houston. The Suns will be highly motivated following back-to-back defeats. Home court has been huge in this match. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven, including 4-0 in the last four. The Suns are a reliable 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a spread loss. They are 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 11-2 ATS when playing on Sunday under Hornaceck. You want to back any team on Sunday that is off a home loss to a division opponent as doing so has produced a 31-8 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take Phoenix.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4

The Key: Head coach Dcc Rivers has called out his players, and I expect them to respond. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 7.5 points. The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five at home in the series, winning these by an average of 8.0 points. You want to back teams like the Clippers that are averaging 48.0 rebounds per game or less and allowing their opponents to shoot 50% from the field or better. Doing so has produced a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +7.5

The Key: This line is an overreaction to Oklahoma City being without Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. OKC is 1-4 but all four losses have come on the road and against some pretty good teams. Memphis is 5-0 but hasn't played as difficult of a schedule as the Thunder. Under coach Brooks, the Thunder are 49-27 ATS following two or more consecutive losses, 56-33 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games and 57-38 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. OKC is at home and has had two days to gear up for this one. It has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 straight home games versus the Grizzlies. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Rockets Over 199.5

The Key: The Spurs have finished under the number in each of their first three games. The Rockets have come in below the number in each of their first five games. We are getting a very favorable number here as a result. Houston has looked good defensively in the early going, but it has played a very weak schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here. Six of the last eight matchups between these teams have gone over this number with an average of 213.9 total points scored. The over is 14-4 in the Rockets' last 18 home games. The over is also 26-11 in Houston's games against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach McHale.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +3.5

The Key: The Nuggets will be out for some payback following Monday's home loss to the Kings. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss while the Kings are on a 7-19 ATS slide at home following a win. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Sacramento. You want to fade home favorites that are off two straight wins of six points or less when they are matched up against an opponent that is off a game where both it and its foe scored 105 points or more. Doing so has produced a 58-25 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Trail Blazers +3

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and with The Big Three coming to town, expect Portland to play some inspired basketball. Cleveland was able to bounce back against the Bulls following a bad opener against the Knicks. However, I expect the Cavaliers to be inconsistent in the early going as they adjust to new roles and learn how to play together. Portland is a tough place to play, and the Trail Blazers aren't at all happy about their 1-2 start. Portland has been a phenomenal home dog over the years. In fact, it is 85-56 ATS as a home dog of six points or less since 1996, including 51-31 ATS as a home dog of three points or fewer during this span. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on 76ers +9.5

The Key: The Rockets have stayed focused early against inferior teams and are 3-0 SU and ATS, but this is where I believe they start looking ahead. They play in Miami tomorrow, and that game is followed by games against the Spurs and Warriors. The 76ers are 0-3 SU and ATS and will be hungry for their first "W" of the season. They kicked by Miami last time out but are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit defeat at home. The 76ers won last season's home meeting 123-117, and the home team has certainly been the play in this series as it is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Philly's three home wins during this stretch have come by 8.0 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers -3.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Golden State, which makes the trip up to Portland to play without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers had yesterday off and will be very focused following a disappointing performance in Sacramento. The Warriors won big in Sacramento in their opener and drilled the Lakers last night as well. However, they are catching some points, which tells me odds makers want the money on Golden State. We won't take the bait. The Warriors are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +2

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Suns in Utah following last night's big win over the defending champion Spurs. The Jazz will be highly motivated after losing their first two and fresh having had last night off. Utah has given the Suns some problems. The Jazz have won the last two meetings and are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five at home in the series. Utah is also a rock solid 101-71 ATS since 1996 in home off two or more consecutive losses against the number and has won by an average score of 100.1 to 93.7 in this situation. Take the Jazz.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +4

The Key: LeBron James played horrible last night as emotions surrounding his homecoming got the best of him. I expect a much stronger effort from him here and for the Cavs to take the Bulls down to the wire as a result. Cleveland's Big Three saw opening night going a lot differently, and they will be fueled by last night's ugly performance. I expect maximum effort at the defensive end, especially knowing they'll have to be much better than they were last night to compete with Chicago. The Bulls have been a terrible home investment in recent seasons. In fact, they went 35-55 ATS at the United Center the past two seasons while winning these games by only 2.7 points on average. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day of rest. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +13

The Key: This line is an overreaction to New York's lopsided loss to the Bulls last night. The Bulls defend better than the Cavs. Plus, I think it's going to take this new Cleveland team some time to build chemistry. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +3.5

The Key: The Rockets won easily in Los Angeles last night but are on a 3-13 ATS slide following a win of 15 points or more and have lost these contests by an average score of 106.9 to 106.7. The Rockets are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing without a day of rest. The Jazz have had a lot of success against Houston at home where they are 35-10 in the last 45. They won their most recent home meeting against Houston 109-103. Take the points.

6* NBA Opening Night Annihilator on Mavericks +4.5

The Key: I think the Mavs will want this one just a little bit more as it will be motivated by losing to the Spurs in seven games in last season's playoffs. Dallas has been an extraordinary investment on the road where it is 50-20 ATS in its last 70. The Mavs are on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog of six points or less and a 16-6 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Mavs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Finals Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +6

The Key: Off back-to-back blowout losses and facing elimination, Miami will respond.  The Heat are 10-0 the last 2 seasons following 2 or 3 consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  In addition, the Heat are still 13-1 in their last 14 games following a postseason defeat and 9-1 in their last 10 playoff games following a loss of 11 points or more.  Miami played very well in the first two games of the series in San Antonio and might have went home with a 2-0 lead had LeBron James not ran into severe cramps in a non-air conditioned arena.  The Spurs would love to close this thing out tonight in front of their fans, but the two-time reigning NBA champs won't go quietly into the night.  Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat -5

The Key: I fully expect Miami to bounce back strong because that is what it has done time and time again.  The Heat are 13-0 in their last 13 games following a postseason defeat, and these 13 victories have come by an average of 14.4 points.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games following a double-digit postseason loss, winning these by 8.3 points on average.  They are also 9-0 in their last nine playoff games following a loss of 11 points or more, winning these by 9.0 points on average.  Miami knows it absolutely cannot afford to head back to San Antonio down 3-1, and it will come out with the intensity we saw in the third quarter of Game 3 from the tip.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Finals Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -4.5

The Key: Miami worked hard to steal away home-court advantage from the Spurs, and I don't see it giving it right back.  The Heat are a perfect 8-0 at home in these playoffs and have won these games by an average of 12.4 points.  They are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games dating back to last season and have won them by an average of 11.6 points.  The home team has had a lot of success in this series.  In fact, it is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 11.8 points.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs Under 199

The Key: Game 1 went over the total by only 5.5 points according to the line (199.5) I had despite the teams combining to shoot 52.7 percent from the field overall and 25 of 54 (46.3%) from three-point territory.  In other words, the pace greatly favored the under.  Miami knows it must play much better defense if it's going to steal away the home court advantage, and I fully expect it to do so.  Plus, the law of averages is heavily stacked against the teams going off from three the way they did in Game 1.  They combined to make eight more threes than they average.  That's 24 extra points.  If they would have made what they average, we would have seen just 181 total points scored.  Factoring in free throw discrepancies (Miami made eight fewer free throws than it averages and San Antonio made one more than in averages), we still would have seen just 188 total points scored if they made their averages from the foul line.  With Miami tightening the screws defensively and the law of averages ready to swing back in our favor, this one should come in under the number easily.

7* NBA Finals Game 1 "Total" Annihilator Heat/Spurs Under 199.5

The Key: Because this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, I expect the defensive intensity to be high from the jump.  The Spurs feel like they let one slip away last year and will be extremely focused for Game 1 as a result.  Miami found itself in a hole after losing Game 1 of last year's Finals, and it will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again.  At the end of regulation, 7 of the last 10 games these teams have played have finished at 198 total points or less.  We've seen an average of 193.6 total points scored during this 10-game sample so we are getting a really good number.  Both teams looked to set the tone with defense in last year's Finals, and we saw 180 points in Game 1 and 187 points in Game 2 as a result.  The "under" is 5-0 in the Spurs' last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  San Antonio is 24-9 "under" in home games versus slow-tempo teams that average 76 shots per game or less since 1996.  The "under" is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two in San Antonio.  Lastly, plays "under" when the total is between 190.0 and 199.5 points on teams like Miami that led by 15 or more points at the half of their last game are 36-13 since 1996 provided their opponent has scored 105 points or more in its last two games.  Take the under.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -3

The Key: The home team has dominated this matchup, going 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 19 points.  The Thunder have had their way with the Spurs in Oklahoma City where they are 9-0 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings with an average winning margin of 11.1 points.  It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.  We saw the way the Thunder responder following a pair of blowout losses in San Antonio in the first two games of the series, and I expect a similar response tonight.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +7.5

The Key: I don’t see an Indiana team that has been knocked out of the playoffs by Miami the past two seasons going down without a fight.  Down 2-3 in their opening series, they beat Atlanta on the road and obviously went on to win the series.  This is a team that has come up big with its back against the wall, as we saw in Game 5.  This is also a team that has been good on the road in these playoffs, going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7.  The Pacers lost by 12 points in each of the series’ first two meeting in Miami, but I expect a much stronger performance tonight with their season on the line.  Miami defeated Brooklyn by double-digits in its first two home games of that series.  However, it won by just two points at home in the closeout game.   The Pacers have covered 5 of 8 games when catching points in these playoffs (according to the closing line).  Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games following a road games over the last two seasons.  It is also 1-8 ATS this season following a game where it made 12 3-points shots or more.  Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -4.5

The Key: The Spurs remember all too well what happened in 2012.  They won the first two games of the Western Conference finals against the Thunder, then lost four straight.  The haunting memory of that outcome assures us San Antonio will be ready to go here.  The home team has dominated this matchup, going 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with an average winning margin of 17.2 points.  In addition, the Spurs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six home games, winning these by an average of 23.0 points.  The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in all home playoff games since 1996.  They are also 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of this season versus good teams like the Thunder that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points per game or more.  The Spurs have won by an average score of 110.9 to 92.3 in these games.  Lastly, you want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 120-72 ATS mark since 1996.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Heat/Pacers Under 185

The Key: Indiana picked up its defense in Game 4 after allowing the Heat to shoot above 50% in each of the previous three games.  It held Miami to 46.4% shooting, but we saw yet another "over" in the series because it sent Miami to the foul line 34 times.  The Pacers were the top defensive team in the NBA during the regular-season, and I expect them to put forth their best defensive effort of the series in the face of elimination.  Miami would love to close out this series so it can get some extra rest prior to the Finals so it will be lacking no defensive effort either.  With all that's at stake, we should see a defensive battle that comes in "under" the number.  The "under" is 4-0 in the Pacers' last four after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Indiana is 34-15 "under" when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  The "under" is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -2.5

The Key: Following a decisive Game 3 victory, the Thunder head into Game 4 with momentum and confidence on their side.  You might recall that Oklahoma City lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight victories to win the series so that only adds to its confidence level.  Dating back to that series, the Thunder are on an 8-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs.  All of these victories have come by at least six points with four by 12 or more.  The Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Thunder are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games versus teams winning more than 60% of their games on the road.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +6.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a chance to even the series, Indiana will be out for blood this evening.  I especially expect the Pacers to pick things up on the defensive end after allowing Miami to shoot better than 50% in each of the first three games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  It is a perfect 6-0 in its last 6 games following a double-digit loss, winning them by an average of 6.2 points.  Take the points.

7* Western Conference Finals Game of the Year on Thunder -2

The Key: I'm not ready to count the Thunder out yet.  You might recall that they lost Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, and then rattled off four straight, including a 20-point victory in Game 3, to win the series.  Dating back to that Game 3 win, the Thunder are on a 7-0 SU and ATS run at home versus the Spurs.  All of these victories came by at least six points with four by 12 or more.  Oklahoma City was a tremendous 34-7 at home during the regular season and 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.  The Spurs are still 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Thunder.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Heat -7

The Key: I like Miami at home where it is 37-9 on the season, including 5-0 in the playoffs.  These five wins have come by an average of 10.0 points.  Home court has been huge in this matchup.  The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with an average winning margin of 9.6 points.  While the Pacers are elite defensively, their offensive issues often surface in Miami where they are 0-4 in their last four.  They have lost these games by 11.8 points on average while being held to an average of 83.8 points.  The Pacers have been good on the road in these playoffs, but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600.  Lay the points.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Spurs Under 211

The Key: The Thunder thought they could go small and outscore the Spurs in Game 1, but that decision left them exposed on the defensive end.  Protecting the paint will be a priority for Oklahoma City tonight, and that means we can expect to see a bigger lineup, likely one that has Steven Adams and Nick Collison playing side by side for extended minutes.  Playing this duo worked against the Clippers, and I expect Scott Brooks to go back to it here.  Collison and Adams are blue collar competitors, who I believe will respond after getting punked in Game 1.  The pace actually favored the under in Game 1, but both teams shot the ball well.  With more effort and a strategy change from the Thunder, the Spurs shouldn't shoot anywhere near the 57.5% they shot in the first game.  Despite the 227 total points we saw in Game 1, these two teams have combined to average just 207.6 total points in this season's five meetings.  The Thunder are 4-1 "under" in their last five games after giving up 100 points or more last game, 4-1 "under" in their last five when playing on one day of rest and 5-2 "under" in their last seven following a defeat of more than 10 points.  The Spurs are 14-6 "under" in their 20 when their opponent scored 100 points or more last game.  Take the Under.

7* Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers Under 185

The Key: Prior to Game 1, six of the previous seven meetings had finished below the posted number for this game.  The Game 1 pace wasn't fast, but both teams shot better than 51% from the field.  I expect that to change tonight.  Miami knows it has to tighten the screws defensively if it is going to even the series.  Indiana was arguably the best defensive team in the NBA this season, and it has held Miami to an average of 43.7% shooting over the last seven matchups.  The Pacers are 33-13 "under" this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points, and we've seen an average of only 180.9 total points scored in these games.  According to simulations based on statistics, there is a probability of both teams scoring 92 points or less in this game.  This is worth noting because the "under" is 59-0 the last three seasons in Indiana games when both teams score 92 points or less.  The "under" is 32-0 in Miami games the last three seasons when both teams score 92 points or less.  Take the under.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -5.5

The Key: San Antonio is playing its best basketball of the season, especially at home where it is 5-0 in its last five with an average winning margin of 18.4 points.  Oklahoma City swept the regular-season series, but the playoffs are a different animal.  We saw that when Miami took care of Brooklyn in five games after getting swept in the regular season.  Plus, the Spurs catch a break with Serge Ibaka out.  He is the team's third-leading scorer and best defensive player.  Ibaka led the league in blocked shots.  The Thunder won't get the same level of rim protection without him.  San Antonio is 68-46 ATS in home playoffs games under coach Popovich, winning them by an average of 7.6 points.  You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent in a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 119-72 ATS mark since 1996.  Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 5.7 points on average and have won by an average of 8.0 points.  The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Lay the points.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers +3.5

The Key: The Pacers are showing value catching this many points at home where they are 38-10 on the season.  The Pacers have been playing for this series all year, and I expect an inspired effort from them this afternoon.  Indiana won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in three of four meetings during the regular season.  Indiana has also won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in nine of the last 14 meetings.  Home court has been huge in this matchup.  The home team is 8-0 in the last eight meetings with a 9.6-point average margin of victory.  The Pacers are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus the Heat, including 4-0 in their last four.  Indiana's size gives Miami big problems.  Take the points.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers +4.5

The Key: As if Tuesday's embarrassing 102-79 home loss isn't enough motivation, the Pacers watched Miami punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals last night.  Indiana knows it needs to end this series tonight so Miami won't have a significant rest advantage, and I fully expect the Pacers to respond.  The Pacers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 13-3 ATS in road games the last two seasons when seeking revenge for an upset loss.  Washington is 6-17 ATS the last three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points.  Take the points.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat Under 189

The Key: The last two games of this series have finished over the total, largely due to hot shooting by Brooklyn in Game 3 and hot shooting by Miami in Game 4.  I don't expect either team to shoot well tonight.  With the Nets fighting to stay alive and the Heat trying to close them out, defense will take center stage.  The Heat are on a 4-0 "under" run in games following two consecutive overs.  The Nets are also 4-0 "under" in their last four games following two consecutive overs.  Brooklyn is 20-5 "under" as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points over the last three seasons.  Miami has been taking exceptional care of the basketball in these playoffs and is on a 13-3 "under" run since 1996 in home games after three straight games of committing 11 turnovers or fewer.  The "under" is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams in Miami, including 6-1 in the last seven.  We have seen just 182.0 total points scored on average in these 10 games.  Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers Under 181

The Key: The Pacers know they are fortunate to be up 3-1 in the series as they needed to come back from 19 down in the second half Sunday night.  They can't be at all pleased with their performance on the defensive end (especially in the first half) as they gave up 18 fast-break points, 42 points in the paint and allowed the Wizards to shoot 45.6% for the game.  I expect them to tighten the screws defensively from the jump tonight as they look to close out the series.  Washington knows it must do a better job defensive if it's going to live to see another day.  After holding Indiana to 42.3% shooting through the first three games of the series, it allowed the Pacers to shoot 45.2% from the floor in Game 4.  The Pacers are 31-12 "under" this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 17-6 "under" at home in this range.  Indiana is also 9-1 "under" the last two seasons after three straight games where both it and its opponent scored 95 points or fewer.  We have seen just 173.3 total points on average scored in these 10 instances.  You also want to play the "under" on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 in a matchup of teams with winning records if they are off two or more consecutive upset defeats.  Doing so has produced a 40-16 mark since 1996.  Take the Under.

7* 2nd Round Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Trail Blazers Under 211

The Key: You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all teams like Portland that have allowed 110 points or more in three straight games when they are matched up against a team that scored 105 points or more last game.  Doing so has produced a 32-12 ATS mark the last five seasons.  You also want to play the "Under" when the total is 200.0 or higher on home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for two straight double-digit losses to an opponent when the opponent is off a road win where it scored 110 points or more.  Doing so has produced a 32-9 ATS mark since 1996, a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS record the last three seasons.  Game 3 closed with Portland favored by a single point, and that sets up another strong system.  You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more if their opponent is off a double-digit upset win.  Doing so has produced a 30-7 ATS mark since 1996.  We saw 208 total points scored in Game 1 and 211 total points scored in Game 2 so we are getting a good line, especially since I expect this to be the most intense game of the series on the defensive end.  With Portland fighting to stay alive and San Antonio looking to close out the series, defense should take center stage.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards Over 180

The Key: Washington has allowed Indiana to control the tempo the last two games.  It lost both as a result, and both finished way under the total.  The Wizards have managed just nine fast-break points the past two games, and they know that is unacceptable.  I expect them to make an effort to get out and run in Game 4, like they did in Game 1 when they had 14 fast-break points and 198 total points were scored in the game.  The Wizards did an excellent job of controlling the tempo versus the Bulls.  They played fast and four of the five games finished above the number with an average of 184.6 total points scored in these five games.  If you get rid of the low-scoring Game 5, there was an average of 194.8 total points scored between the teams.  The "Over" is 5-0-1 in the Wizard's last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Over.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -4.5

The Key: Washington controlled the tempo in Game 1 and cruised to a six-point win on the road.  However, the Wizards have let the Pacers take the air out of the ball the past two games, and they lost both, including an ugly 85-63 defeat in Game 3.  That loss is all the motivation the Wizards will need here.  Look for them to bounce-back strong behind an up-tempo attack.  The Pacers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall, 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 1 day of rest.  The Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 day of rest.  Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers -4.5

The Key: The Clippers won't go down without a fight.  Expect them to come storming back in Game 4 behind a much better defensive effort.  Oklahoma City has connected on better than 50% of its shots the past two games, and you can bet the Clippers will tighten the screws here.  Prior to these contests, LA had held the Thunder to 46.2% or worse in three straight contests.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home where they hold a +10.6-point differential.  They are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss.  The Thunder are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record.  Lay the points.

7* Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Trail Blazers +1.5

The Key: Expect Portland to come storming back at home where it is 33-11 on the season and 9-2 in its last 11 versus San Antonio.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 3-10 in their last 13 in Portland.  You want to back underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they trailed by 15 points or more at the half of their previous game.  Doing so has produced a 66-31 ATS mark since 1996.  You also want to back home underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more if they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  Doing so has produced a 56-28 ATS mark since 1996.  With the home crowd behind them, the Trail Blazers will get the job done Saturday night.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets +1.5

The Key: The Nets blew a good chance to even the series in Game 2 by falling in love with the three-point shot in the second half, but this veteran squad isn't about to hang its head.  The Nets have been awesome in their own building where they are 25-5 since Dec. 27.  They are also 2-0 at home versus Miami this season.  The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  You also want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are off two or more consecutive road losses, provided that have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 65-32 ATS mark since 1996.  Bet the Nets.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Trail Blazers +7

The Key: You want to back road teams like Portland that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half.  Doing so has produced an 80-34 ATS mark since 1996.  You also want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103.0 ppg or more following a game where they trailed by 15 points or more at the half.  Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1996.  If the underdog in the aforementioned situation is also playing on the road, this system explodes to 31-9 ATS.  It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 13-2 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.  They have bounced back to win by an average score of 99.1 to 98.8 in this spot.  History shows that teams who get off to a bad start in their previous game tend to bounce back strong.  Take the points.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Nets +8

The Key: The Nets were crushed in Game 1, but they have been exceptional in bounce-back spots this season.  In fact, they are 13-3 ATS on the season following a loss of 15 points or more and have won by an average score of 99.4 to 95.4 in this spot.  Brooklyn is also 10-2 ATS this season following a road defeat of 10 points or more and has won by an average score of 102.7 to 96.6 in this spot.  It is also worth noting that the Nets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus teams that have a home winning percentage greater than .600 while the Heat are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Brooklyn won all four regular-season meetings, and I expect it to show up in Game 2.  Take the points.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -5.5

The Key: Look for the Thunder to bounce back strong in Game 2.  The Clippers are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points while the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Oklahoma City is also 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  It has won these contests by an average score of 108.6 to 97.7.  In addition, the Thunder are 17-7 ATS the last two seasons in home games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent.  They have won these contests by an average score of 106.0 to 94.8.  Lastly, OKC is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams like the Clippers that outscore the opposition by 6.0 ppg or more.  It has defeated these teams by an average score of 108.1 to 101.0.  Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4.5

The Key: The Pacers lost Game 1, but they are still 37-9 this season at home where they are averaging 98.2 points and holding opponents to an average of 88.8.  They are also still 12-1 in their 13 home games versus the Wizards, and the 12 wins have come by an average of 12.9 points.  The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss against the spread.  Washington has been playing well on the road in these playoffs, but it is on an 11-26 ATS slide following two or more consecutive road wins.  Lay the points.

6* Game 1 Bailout on Trail Blazers +6.5

The Key: The Spurs are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, and they'll have a difficult time covering this number against a Portland squad that has given them fits.  The Trail Blazers have won or lost by three points or less in six of the last seven meetings.  San Antonio has won by more than six points only once in its last nine games.  The Blazers have lost by more than six points only once in their last 11 games.  The Spurs won the most recent meeting 103-90 in San Antonio, but the Blazers are 7-0 ATS this season in road games when seeking revenge for a road loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average score of 115.3 to 105.1 in this situation.  Take the points.

6* Game 1 *CA$H COW* on Heat -7

The Key: The Heat will be the much fresher team tonight as they haven't taken the floor since Apr. 28.  The Nets are coming off a tough seven-game series and will be playing their second road game in three days here.  Brooklyn actually swept Miami during the regular season so the Heat will be looking to send a message from the tip.  You want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge when their opponent checks in off an upset victory over a division rival.  Doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark since 1996.  Teams fitting this situation have won by 11.5 points on average.  Lay the points.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4

The Key: The Pacers got a huge wake-up call in their first-round series with Atlanta.  It was an up-hill battle after losing Game 1 of that series, and they'll be extremely focused tonight to make sure they get off to a better start in the semifinal round.  Indiana actually matches up better with Washington because the Wizards rely more on the interior play of Marcin Gortat and Nene.  Going inside plays right into the hands of an Indiana squad that is big and physical defensively in the paint.  If Washington tries to go small and be more perimeter-oriented, the Pacers got a great crash course on how to defend that in the first round.  ''I think Teague helped us prepare for John Wall,'' coach Frank Vogel said. "And Korver helped us prepare for Bradley Beal."  The Pacers are 12-0 in their last 12 home games versus the Wizards with these victories coming by an average of 12.9 points.  Lay the points.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs Under 198.5

The Key: With the stakes raised and a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line, I expect to see these teams play a little tight.  Every single possession means a little bit more in a Game 7, and the pace should slow as a result.  Neither team wants to do the other any favors by taking a bad shot early in the shot clock or turning the ball over.  Plus, we should see outstanding effort on the defensive end from both teams.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more if they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  We've seen an average of only 188.5 total points scored in this situation.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder Under 186

The Key: Four of the six games played in this series have finished at or under 186 total points in regulation, and I expect this trend to continue.  We have seen an average of 180.3 total points scored in regulation in this series and only 174.5 in regulation over the last four games so we are getting an excellent number.  We only saw 188 total points scored in Game 6 despite OKC hitting 49.3% from the field and going 23 of 25 from the free throw line.  Prior to that game, Memphis had held the Thunder below 40% shooting in four straight games.  I expect another strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies here.  The Thunder are at their best when they are getting out in transition, but Memphis has done an excellent job of controlling the tempo.  Even in Game 6, the Thunder only attempted 75 shots - eight less than their season average.  When the total is between 180.0-189.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on all teams like the Thunder who are off a win of 20 points or more, provided they average 99.0 ppg or more.  Doing so has produced a 109-63 mark since 1996.  We have seen just 182.4 total points scored on average in this situation.  It is also worth noting that Memphis is 11-2 "Under" the last three seasons following a double-digit loss at home.  We have seen only 179.3 total points scored in this spot.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -4.5

The Key: The Nets have lost the last two games of this series and are now facing elimination, but I expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion tonight to extend the series.  The Nets were fortunate to be in Game 5 as they got off to a terrible start and trailed by 18 at the half.  They have learned from similar performances as they are 8-1 ATS this season after trailing in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half.  They have won these contests by an average of 9.8 points.  The Nets are also 9-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these contests by an average of 8.0 points.  The Raptors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5

The Key: Golden State has been a terrific investment in bounce-back spots.  The Warriors are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  They are also 8-1 ATS this season following a double-digit defeat and have won these contests by an average score of 106.4 to 90.5.  In addition, the Warriors are 9-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that carry a winning percentage of 60% to 70%.  They have won these games by an average score of 104.0 to 93.2.  The Warriors have won 16 of their last 19 home games against the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Golden State.  Take the Warriors.

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -5

The Key: Staring elimination in the face, Houston will play with a sense of desperation to extend the series.  Prior to these playoffs, the Rockets had won three straight at home over the Trail Blazers by an average of 11.0 points.  I expect them to dig down deep here, and it starts with James Harden, who has had a rough series.  If Harden had been himself, the Rockets might be up 3-1.  I expect him to be the best player on the floor tonight.  The Trail Blazers are a poor 2-7 ATS when playing on two days' rest.  They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games.  You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that give up 99.0 ppg or more when they are matched up against a team that has allowed 100 points or more in four straight games.  Doing so has produced an 85-50 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Teams fitting into this system have lost by an average of 8.4 points.  Lay the number.

7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

The Key: Look for the Clippers to put the distractions aside and bounce-back strong tonight.  You want to back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are seeking revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent if that opponent is off a win of 20 points or more over a division rival.  Doing so has produced a 43-15 ATS mark since 1996.  Teams fitting this system have been favored by 5.3 points on average but have won by an average of 9.0 points.  The Clippers are 14-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, and they have won by an average score of 112.9 to 99.9 in this situation.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five road meetings.  Lay the points.

6* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Bulls Under 184

The Key: Staring elimination in the face, the Bulls will put forth the kind of defensive effort that made them arguably the most-feared defensive team in the NBA during the regular season.  It also plays in our favor that Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  Each game of the series has gone over the total so far, and we are catching a good number in Chicago as a result.  You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off three or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off four or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 69-33 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, Chicago is 18-7 "Under" this season in home games when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5.  We have seen just 179.5 total points scored on average in these games.  The Bulls are 10-1 "Under" in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games under coach Thibodeau.  We have seen just 175.3 total points scored on average in these games.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Spurs/Mavericks Under 203.5

The Key: After allowing Dallas to shoot an average of 50.1% from the field in back-to-back defeats, the Spurs will pick up the intensity on the defensive end.  With them doing so, the "Under" becomes a strong play tonight.  When the total is 200.0 to 209.5, you want to take the "Under" on all teams playing with double revenge if they have a winning record and are playing a team with a winning record.  Doing so has produced a 97-60 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, you want to take the "Under" when the line is 200.0 or higher on teams that are seeking revenge for an upset loss if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-11 mark the last five seasons.  These systems speak to the way teams tighten the screws defensively in revenge spots.  Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Nets Under 192

The Key: These teams combined for 200 points in Game 3, but the pace was very slow.  Both teams attempted just 67 shots.  Despite the slow pace, the game finished over the total because both teams shot a high percentage from the field.  Expect another slow grind it out game, and expect the shooting to suffer as the defenses pick up the intensity.  You want to take the "Under" on all teams when the total is 190.0 to 199.5 in the fourth game of a first round playoff series.  That's because doing so has produced a 44-14 (76%) mark since 1996.  Take the Under.
 

7* NBA Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors +2

The Key: The Warriors are showing a lot of value in the home underdog role.  They have been home dogs just three times this season and are 2-0-1 ATS in those games.  Plus, they are 15-3 in their last 18 at home versus the Clippers, including 5-1 in their last six.  Golden State lost Game 3 by two points, but it has responded well following defeats.  The Warriors are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  They are 29-13 ATS under Mark Jackson following a loss of six points or less and 18-7 ATS under his watch following a loss of three points or fewer.  We also can't ignore the fact the Warriors are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 first-round playoff games.  The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight first-round playoff contests.  Take Golden State.

7* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Thunder -3

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Grizzlies and a 2-1 series deficit, I expect the Thunder to respond in a big way.  Oklahoma City is 30-13 ATS off a loss of three points or less under coach Brooks and has won by an average of 5.3 points in these contests.  It is 14-3 ATS off a defeat of three points or less the last three seasons, winning these contests by an average of 11.4 points.  The Thunder are also 50-32 ATS when playing with double revenge under Brooks and 28-12 ATS off an upset loss on the road.  The Thunder have settled for too many three-point shots the past two games.  They are one of the top free throw shooting teams in the league, and I expect them to live at the line in this one as they put an emphasis on driving the ball to the basket.  Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Trail Blazers Under 216.0

The Key: You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off two or more consecutive overs and is playing a team off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last three seasons.  You also want to play the "Under" on all teams in the third game of a playoff series if the total line is 200.0 or greater.  Doing so has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If the game takes place in the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 42-12.  When the total is 200.0 or higher, you want to take the "Under" on all teams like Houston that are seeking revenge for an upset loss, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60%-75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  The last nine meetings between these teams have finished over the number.  However, Game 1 would have finished under had it not gone to OT.  Plus, these teams have finished over this number just two times in Portland since 2000.  Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Wizards Under 183.5

The Key: The Bulls have found out that they don't have the offensive firepower to outscore Washington.  They know the only way they can get back in the series is to ramp it up on the defensive end.  I'm confident they'll do just that tonight.  Chicago is 13-3 "Under" when seeking revenge for two straight losses where its opponent scored 100 points or more under coach Thibodeau.  You want to play the "Under" on road teams when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points if they are off two or more consecutive upset losses, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team.  Doing so has produced a 39-15 mark since 1996.  We have seen an average total line of 185.2 for these contests but an average total score of just 180.3.  Chicago is 31-17 "Under" when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points this season.  It is also 21-10 "Under" after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Washington is 9-1 "Under" as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less over the last two seasons while Chicago is 18-7 "Under" as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less under coach Thibodeau.  The "Under" is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Washington.  Take the Under.

6* NBA Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Warriors +2

The Key: The Warriors did what they set out to accomplish in L.A. (steal home-court advantage) so they won't be down on themselves following an ugly Game 2 loss.  All that loss does is provide added motivation for the home team.  The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss, 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games while the Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven.  When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 35-6 mark the last five seasons, a 22-2 mark the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 mark this season.  Golden State has won five straight at home against the Clippers by an average of 11.2 points.  Take the Warriors.

7* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Clippers/Warriors Under 215.5

The Key: Taking the Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If it is the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 40-12.  In addition, taking the Under on all teams when the total is 200 or higher that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against a team off a blowout loss of 15 points or more has produced a 74-38 mark the last five seasons.  It is also worth noting that taking the Under on all teams when the total is 210 or higher that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has produced an 80-43 mark since 1996.  We'll follow these time-tested systems to another big totals winner.  Take the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockets -6

The Key: Houston nearly won Game 1 despite shooting 41% from the field, 22.9% from three and 65% from the free throw line.  James Harden had a very uncharacteristic game as he was just 8 of 28 from the floor.  Houston settled for too many shots.  It will take the ball more aggressively to the basket tonight while working for better shots.  I'm also confident it will do a better job on LaMarcus Aldridge.  Prior to the Game 1 loss, Houston had won three straight at home in the series by an average of 11.0 points.  It has won five of the last seven meetings overall with the wins coming by an average of 13.2 points.  Portland covered the number in Game 1, but it is still only 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine Conference Quarterfinal games.  It is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The Rockets are 20-5 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five.  They have won by an average score of 110.2 to 97.1 in this spot.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Hawks Under 187.5

The Key: I'm taking the Under tonight because I'm confident the Pacers will show up defensively after giving up 101 points in Game 1.  Indiana is 24-9 Under this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5, including 14-4 Under at home in this set.  The Pacers are 11-2 this season in home games when the total is between 185.0 and 189.5, and we have seen just 176.1 total points scored on average in these contests.  You also want to play the Under on any team (Atlanta in this case) that is off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 39-14 mark the last three seasons.  Indiana isn't in good form offensively (which plays right into our hands), but it is more than capable of shutting down Atlanta on the defensive end.  I expect a ferocious defensive effort from the Pacers in this highly motivated spot.  Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors Under 212.5

The Key: There is some overwhelming history supporting this play on the UNDER.  First off, You want to play the UNDER on any team that has gone over the total in 3 consecutive games or more when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone over in 4 or more consecutive games.  Doing so has produced a 67-29 mark the last five seasons.  If the total is set at 200 or higher, the above system tightens up to 39-16.  In addition, you want to take the UNDER on any team when the total is 200 or higher that is seeking revenge for an upset defeat if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-7 mark the last five seasons.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is 210 or higher that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games, provided they have a winning record and are playing a winning team, has produced a 45-18 mark the last five seasons.  These teams combined for 214 points in Game 1, but we've seen 209 total points or less in six of their seven previous meetings.  Take the Under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers -7.5

The Key: The Clippers have been an outstanding investment in bounce-back spots at 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss.  Plus, they are 12-2 ATS this season following an upset loss and have won by an average of 11.2 points in these games.  They are also 13-3 ATS this season when seeking revenge for an upset loss and have won these contests by an average of 11.3 points.  The home team is still 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with the 7 wins coming by an average of 14.14 points.  Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls -4.5

The Key: After losing the season's first two meetings in January, Chicago flexed its muscles with a 96-78 victory at Washington earlier this month.  Despite the big win, the Bulls will not be overlooking Washington because it defeated them by 14 on this floor earlier this season.  Chicago has edges in playoff experience, on defense and in the coaching box.  Consider that Thibodeau is 205-107 and has led the Bulls to the playoffs in all four seasons.  Wittman is in the postseason for the first time.  You want to fade underdogs that are seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss when they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss.  Doing so has produced a 95-60 ATS mark the last five seasons.  Lay the points.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Mavs/Spurs Under 206.5

The Key: In four regular-season meetings between these two, we've seen total scores of 223, 202, 218 and 209.  That's good for an average total score of 213 points.  However, we are getting a number much lower than that here.  Clearly, odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the OVER, but we won't oblige them.  Dallas lost all four regular-season matchups, and its three-point defense was a big reason why.  It allowed the Spurs to connect on 42 of 97 three-point attempts and were minus 54 points from beyond the arc.  Head coach Rick Carlisle knows his team must do a much better job defending the three to have a shot in this series, and that is what I expect from the start.  You want to play the UNDER on all teams like Dallas that are playing four games or less in 10 days, provided they have a win percentage of 51% to 60% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 75-31 mark the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the Spurs' last 15 games overall, 5-2 in their last seven home games, 8-3 in the last 11 home games versus Dallas and 6-2 in their last eight first round NBA playoff contests.  Take the Under.