6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Celtics +7
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Suns, who are off an emotionally and physically draining overtime win in Denver last night. They have big games against the Spurs and Rockets on deck so I don't see them giving Boston their full attention here. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five combines for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Boston will be the fresher side having had last night off. Plus, we can't ignore what the Celtics have done on the road lately. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus teams that have winning home marks. These teams were the Heat, Trail Blazers, Warriors and Clippers. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on 76ers +8
The Key: This is the most points Utah has laid all season, and it is too many. This line is an overreaction to the back-to-back beatings Philly took, but those were to really good, explosive offensive teams. No one likes getting buried like that, and I fully expect the 76ers to have a performance that saves face here. You want to back road teams that give up 103.0 ppg or more if they trailed by double digits at the half in their last two games. Doing so has produced a 79-34 ATS mark since 1996, and this system is 4-0 ATS this season. Utah has won back-to-back games for the fifth time this season, and it is 0-4 ATS following the previous four times with an average losing margin of 10.3 points. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Mavericks +9.5
The Key: We went against the Mavericks last night as we expected them to get caught looking ahead to this game, and that's exactly what happened. This is a game Dallas wants badly because it was brutally embarrassed by the Pacers in both of last season's meetings. The fact it was brutally embarrassed last night only adds to its level of motivation. The Dallas defense was non-existent last night, but here's the good news - the Mavs respond. They are 8-0 ATS in road games this season after allowing 110 points or more, winning these games by an average score of 103.4 to 94.9. The Pacers have been extremely overvalued following high point outputs and are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game as a result. In addition, the Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 15-3 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. The Mavs are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games and 28-14 ATS when playing a second road game in as many nights under coach Carlisle. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Bobcats +3.5
The Key: This is a great situation for the Bobcats, who have had the last two days off and will be playing for just the third time in 10 days. They will be far fresher than a Dallas team playing its fifth game in nine days. The fact the Mavericks have had to travel following every one of these games has made it an even more difficult stretch. In addition, the Mavs are at Indiana tomorrow night, and they have been absolutely embarrassed the last two times they've faced the Pacers so they will be looking ahead to that game, especially since they already recorded a seven-point victory over Charlotte earlier this season. You want to back home underdogs in non-conference action that are playing three games of less in 10 days as doing so has produced a 48-21 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.6 points on average but have won by 0.7 points on average. This system is 12-4 ATS the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -5
The Key: Look for the Nets to respond following Friday's embarrassing 111-95 loss to Detroit. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 road meetings in the series. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +9
The Key: This isn't a good situation for Dallas. The odds are stacked heavily against the Mavs here. Consider that fading Friday night home favorites after one or more consecutive wins has produced a 257-170 (60%) ATS mark the last five seasons. The Mavs are off a big division win at Memphis Wednesday and will have a difficult time giving a Utah team they defeated by double digits earlier this season their full attention. After three consecutive defeats, the Jazz will have no problem getting up for this one. Plus, they have three days of rest and preparation time on their side. Dallas has been a much better investment on the road as it is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. You want to fade home teams 42 games or more into the season if they average 45.5-47.5% shooting from the field and have shot 50% or better from the field in their last two games when they're up against a team that allows 45.5-47.5% shooting. Doing so has produced a 65-28 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons. It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies -3
The Key: Motivated by an 86-77 loss to Oklahoma City that ended a six-game win streak, and further fueled by double-digit losses to Dallas in the season's first two meetings, Memphis will be hungry tonight. The Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are also 23-10 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more. Dallas is one of the better offensive teams in the league, but we can't ignore the fact Memphis is 15-5 ATS the last three seasons in games played in the second half of the season versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more. The Memphis defense has been outstanding of late, and I expect it to be the difference against Dallas. Lay the number.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: Off back-to-back losses at home and fueled by a 112-91 loss in L.A. in the season's first meeting, Denver will be extremely motivated when it takes the floor tonight. The home team has had the advantage of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 15.5 points. The Nuggets earned two of these wins by 14 and 15 points, respectively. Looking back, the Nuggets are 11-2 in their last 13 home games versus the Clippers. L.A. sports a 34-16 record overall and a 14-13 road mark, but the Nuggets are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Clippers are off a blowout win over Utah, but they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Trail Blazers -7
The Key: This is a really tough situation for Toronto, which is playing its second road game in as many nights against a Portland team that has had the last three days off. The Blazers have lost their last two in blowout fashion so they will be extremely motivated here. They needed overtime to win the season's first meeting in Toronto so there's no chance they'll get caught overlooking the Raptors. The Blazers are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games against Toronto, winning these by an average of 12.0 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout (ESPN) on Jazz +5
The Key: Golden State manhandled the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have been incredibly inconsistent of late. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, and they'll have their work cut out for themselves trying to pull away from a fresher Utah team that has had the last three days off. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team that has a winning record. The Warriors won the season's first two meetings with one of the wins at home and the other in Salt Lake City. However, they haven't won multiple regular season games in Utah in the same season since the 1980-81 campaign. You want to back home underdogs with a losing record that are playing five games or less in 14 days as doing so has produced a 42-18 ATS mark the last five seasons. This system has gone 21-6 ATS over the last three seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Nets +4.5
The Key: Oklahoma City is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in its last nine games and is coming off a big 112-95 win in Miami against the defending champs, and it is being overvalued as a result. The Thunder lost at home 95-93 to the Nets Jan. 2 for their second straight loss in the series. Oklahoma City had no answer for Deron Williams in the first meeting, and I expect him to be the difference tonight. While the Thunder would love a little revenge, I don't see them having enough in the tank to get it on the road against a team playing its best ball of the season, especially since they are playing a second road game in three days and the Nets have had three days off. You want to fade teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent if the opponent if off an upset loss to a division rival. Doing so has produced a 107-56 ATS mark the last five seasons, including an 8-2 ATS mark this season. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Kings +5
The Key: This is a poor situation for Memphis, which is riding high off last night's big win in Portland. It's tough enough to play road games in consecutive nights, but it's especially challenging following a satisfying win as it makes it tougher to get up for the next one, especially when the next one is against a team you have already defeated twice in the season. The Grizzlies also have a revenge game at Minnesota up next, making this a look-ahead spot. The Kings have been banged up, but they will be the fresher team tonight following a day of rest. There's also a good chance they'll get Rudy Gay back. But, regardless, I like them in this spot. They took Indiana to OT at home recently without Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. You want to fade favorites following a blowout win of 15 points or more in a game involving two teams that both have +/- 3.0 ppg differential. Doing so has produced a 73-33 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 9-1 ATS mark this season. It's also worth noting that the Kings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* NBA *Motivational Mismatch* on Cavaliers -1.5
The Key: I'll lay the small number with a Cleveland squad that will be highly motivated tonight. The Cavs lost 99-90 to Phoenix last game despite leading the contest by 20 points just before halftime. They were outscored 56-29 over the final two quarters, including 25-6 in the third. "It's embarrassing for us, to the fans, to the organization to come out like that," forward Tristan Thompson said. "We have to take that personally..." I expect Sunday's monumental collapse to prompt a huge response from the Cavs tonight. Adding to their motivation is a 104-100 loss at New Orleans in the season's first matchup. The Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win while the Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record. The home team is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3.

6* NBA Anti-public Annihilator on Bucks +10
The Key: The public will be all over the Clippers playing the lowly Bucks, but I don't see L.A. covering this hefty number. This is the last game of grueling seven-game road trip, and since it's against the worst team in the NBA the road-weary Clippers will have a very hard time getting up for this contest. The Bucks were completely embarrassed by 25 points by Atlanta in front of their home fans last game, and that should motivate them to show up tonight knowing the Clippers are better than the Hawks. The Clippers have struggled in Milwaukee where they have won by more than 8 points just once in the last 14 meetings. That's a 13-1 trend we'll be playing here. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on 76ers +6
The Key: This is a tough situation for Phoenix as it is playing its second road game in as many days against a Philadelphia squad that had yesterday off. The 76ers will be the fresher team, and they should also be more prepared in terms of their scouting report. Phoenix has struggled in the City of Brotherly Love, losing three of its last four visits with the line win coming by only four points. The Suns are a poor 1-10 ATS the last two seasons in games taking place in the second half of the schedule versus teams like Philadelphia that have a win percentage of 25-40%. Phoenix has lost these games by an average score of 103.1 to 91.6. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Warriors -5
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Trail Blazers, who are playing their second game in as many days, their third game in four days and their seventh game in 10 days. Golden State, on the other hand, is playing just its second game in six days. The Warriors will be the fresher side, and they should also be more motivated. Golden State has lost its last two games, both at home, while giving up over 100 points in each. The poor defensive efforts prompted head coach Mark Jackson to call out his team. "We've done a bad job

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: Indiana bounced back from a blowout defeat to Phoenix with a win in Sacramento last night, but it wasn't easy. They needed overtime to get it done and had to expend a lot of energy to erase a big deficit. All five starters logged over 36 minutes. Now, the Pacers have to play on the road again tonight in Denver's high altitude against a Nuggets team that has had a day of rest. I see fatigue being a major issue for the Pacers, who are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. It is the second half of the season in terms of games played for both of these teams, and this is when fatigue has really set it for teams playing the run-and-gun Nuggets. Consider that Denver is 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average 3.0 ppg or more. Denver has won these nine by an average score of 106.9 to 98.1. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Wizards +4
The Key: Expect a letdown from Phoenix following Wednesday's huge win over Indiana. Washington will be ready to bounce back strong following Wednesday's tough-to-swallow overtime loss to Boston. The Wizards have been terrific lately on the road where they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10, and they have been especially nasty in this specific spot, going 9-0 ATS this season in road games after playing a home game. They have won these nine contests by an average score of 100.2 to 96.0. It's also worth noting that fading Friday night home favorites off a win has resulted in a 254-170 (60%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Grizzlies +6
The Key: This is a good situation for Memphis as it has had three days to rest up and prepare for this game. Houston has had only one day. Not only will the Grizzlies be the fresher team, but they'll be the more motivated side. Memphis is 0-10 in divisional games this season, including 0-2 against Houston, so it will be looking to remove the goose egg while getting some cold hard revenge. The Grizzlies check in off a loss that ended a five-game win streak, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following defeat. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams carrying a win percentage above .600. Memphis has been favored in its last six games and is now catching six points, and I think that's too big of a shift considering how well the Grizzlies are playing, how much preparation time they've had and their level of motivation. Memphis is 10-0 ATS in road games after playing five consecutive games as favorite over the last two seasons, winning by an average score of 95.3 to 87.6 in this spot. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5.5
The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Thunder, who are playing their second game in as many nights and their and fifth game in seven days. The Spurs have had two days off prior to this contest, and they are 19-8 ATS the last three seasons when playing on 2 days' rest. They have won by an average of 10.7 points in this situation. San Antonio has lost the season's first two meetings with Oklahoma City so it will be highly motivated tonight. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Jazz had won five straight over the Timberwolves before getting smacked 98-72 in Minnesota Saturday. At home and motivated by that defeat, I expect the Jazz to have their revenge. The Jazz are 7-0 in their last seven home games against the T-Wolves, winning them by an average of 12.9 points. The Jazz have won or lost by fewer than three points in nine straight home meetings in the series, creating a 9-0 trend in our favor. Minnesota is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win, 9-25-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a SU win and 17-37-3 ATS in its last 57 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Hawks +5.5
The Key: This is a tough situation for Miami, which is playing its third road games in four days and was pushed to overtime its last time out. This will be just the third game in 10 days for Atlanta so it will be the far fresher side. The Hawks should also be the more motivated team as they look to bounce back from back-to-back losses and avenge losses to the Heat in the season's first two meetings. Home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games and are playing three games or less in 10 days are 63-30 ATS since 1996. Miami is 3-13 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 2 seasons while Atlanta is 10-0 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.4 points in this situation.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +8
The Key: Off back-to-back win wins over the Rockets and Warriors where the Thunder had to expend a lot of energy, and with big games against Portland and San Antonio on deck, they will come out flat here. Sacramento is quietly playing very well, especially against good teams. The Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 with outright wins over the Heat, Rockets and Trail Blazers during this stretch. They played the Thunder to a two-point game at home Dec. 3 so they will enter this contest believing they can win. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference foes, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. The Thunder are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs -6
The Key: The Spurs have lost three straight to Portland, including a 136-106 beat down the last time they hosted the Trail Blazers, and they will be extremely motivated as a result. Portland hasn't been the juggernaut that it was early in the season and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games, including 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games, as a result. The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Portland is 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. They are also 44-25 ATS in home games after 6 or more consecutive wins under coach Popovich. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

6* NBA Letdown Game of the Week on Bucks +5.5
The Key: Look for the Grizzlies to come out flat tonight following last night's big win over Oklahoma City. This is also Memphis' first road game since Jan. 5 so a change in venue should contribute to a flat performance. Memphis is a soft 54-78 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Milwaukee is on a 64-40 ATS run after 4 or more consecutive losses. It has also won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in six of its last eight home games against the Grizzlies. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Milwaukee catches Memphis at the right time and keeps this one close. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Celtics +4.5
The Key: Toronto has covered the spread in 10 straight and is being overvalued as a result. The Celtics have lost nine in a row and will go after this game with all they've got to try to get off the snide. Boston will be lacking no confidence given the success it's had at home against Toronto. It is 10-0 at home against the Raptors since the start of the 2008-09 season, winning these games by 16.3 points on average. Take the points as Boston gives the Raptors a game tonight.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on 76ers +1
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Bobcats. It is a letdown spot for them following a big win over the Knicks. It is also a fatigued spot as they are playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth game in six days. The Bobcats are 17-37 ATS the last three seasons in the second game of a back-to-back. This is a good spot for the 76ers, who have had three days to gear up for this game. The 76ers should also be the more motivated team having lost the season's first meeting. Philly is the more explosive offensive team, averaging 9.1 points per game more than Charlotte. Odds makers have set a total of 207.0 and that number favors Philly. Consider that the Bobcats are just 1-10 ATS in road games when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average score of 114.3 to 90.8. The 76ers are 5-0 in their last five home games against Charlotte, winning them by an average of 11.6 points. Take the 76ers.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats -109
The Key: This is a bad situation for the Knicks, who are playing their third game in four days and were pushed to overtime last night. Charlotte will be the fresher side as it has had the last two days off. This is also a look-ahead situation for New York, which has a big game at Indiana Thursday. The Bobcats have lost three in a row so they will be extremely focused on the task at hand. They were also defeated on this court the last time they faced the Knicks so they will be out for revenge. The Bobcats are an impressive 12-2 ATS in their last 14 Atlantic division foes and 4-1 ATS in their last five versus the Knicks. Take Charlotte.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pelicans +6.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Spurs, who are being asked to go on the road without rest to face a team they have struggled against. San Antonio has defeated the Pelicans by more than five points just once in the past five meetings. In addition, it hasn't won by more than four points in its last five games in New Orleans, going 0-5 ATS in these games as a result. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses to Dallas, but it is a perfect 9-0 ATS following two consecutive division games over the last three seasons, winning by an average score of 95.1 to 94.2 in this situation. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +7.5
The Key: The Kings have some nice recent wins against the Heat, Rockets and Trail Blazers. However, they have some bad recent losses against the Pelicans, 76ers and Bobcats. This tells me Sacramento is getting up for the good teams (and those teams are overlooking the Kings) and not coming to play against lesser competition. In fact, the Kings are just 7-18 ATS in home games versus teams that have a losing record over the last two seasons and have lost to these teams by an average score of 104.2 to 102.9. Looking back further, Sacramento is a lousy 19-40-2 ATS in its last 61 games versus teams that have a losing record. The Kings won in Orlando 105-100 Dec. 21 for a third straight win in the series so I don't see them being nearly as hungry as an Orlando team that is looking to avenge that loss and looking to snap a five-game skid overall. The Kings are 0-10 ATS as a favorite under coach Michael Malone, losing these games by an average score of 105.7 to 98.0. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Month on Nets +6.5
The Key: This is a terrible spot for Golden State, which is playing its second road game in as many days, its third road game in four days and its seventh road game in 11 days. With all the travel and virtually no rest, I don't see Golden State having enough left in the tank to cover this number against a rested Brooklyn team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 road meetings. Take the points as Brooklyn has an excellent opportunity to win this game outright.

6* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Hawks +5
The Key: Atlanta will undoubtedly be the more motivated team tonight. The Pacers are off a satisfying revenge win over Toronto last night, and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Hawks have dropped three in a row, which is motivation enough, but they will be even more juiced up by the fact they were knocked out of the playoffs by the Pacers last season. Indy has had significant struggles in Atlanta, going 1-13 in its last 14 meetings there, including 0-11 in the regular season. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +7
The Key: This is a tough spot for the Thunder, who will be playing their third game in four days. Utah will be the fresher side as it has had three days off prior to this game. Utah will also be the hungrier side because it has lost the season's first two meetings. The Jazz played the Thunder to a three-point game at home in the season opener when Oklahoma City didn't have Russell Westbrook available, and that will be the case again tonight. The Jazz didn't have Trey Burke available for that game, but he'll be in the lineup tonight. He's been a major contributor since making his way into the lineup. He leads the team in assists per game and has emerged as the third leading scorer. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Wizards +3.5
The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days and their fifth road game in eight days. Washington has been at home to start the month and has had at least one day of rest in between each of its four games. The Wizards will be very hungry here because they have lost their last two games at home, and this is their last home game before they head out on the road for three games. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Washington is also 20-8 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Western Conference Annihilator on Nuggets -3.5
The Key: Motivated by 8 consecutive defeats, one of which being a 120-99 beatdown in Memphis Dec. 28, the Nuggets will want this game more. Denver held a team meeting following an ugly home loss to Philadelphia, and I expect maximum effort in the aftermath. Denver is 27-2 in its last 29 at home versus Memphis, including 10-1 in the last 11. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with an 8.4-point average margin of victory. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Hawks +3
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Golden State following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a fatigued spot for the Warriors, who are playing their third road game in four days. Atlanta will be the much fresher side as it has had two days off. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. The Hawks have been fantastic at home where they are 8-1 in their last nine, including 5-0 in their last five. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the West, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Pacific division and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their last game if they carry a .600 to .750 win percentage and are matched up against a team that has a winning record. Doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. Lastly, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Eastern Conference Annihilator on Wizards -2.5
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Toronto, which is coming off a big win over Indiana and has Miami on deck. The Wizards will be out for revenge for an earlier loss in Toronto, and I like their chances considering they are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against the Raptors, winning these by an average of 10.6 points. The Wizards lost their last game to Dallas but are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the East and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Atlantic division. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Knicks +11
The Key: The Knicks have had four days to prepare for this game while the Spurs have had just one. The Knicks have lost three in a row by double digits and were hammered at home by the Spurs in the first meeting so New York will be lacking no motivation. San Antonio has a big revenge game against the Clippers up next so it will be very easy for it to look ahead to that contest. The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. You also want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points after 3 or more consecutive wins if they carry a win percentage of .750 or higher and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 50-27 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Blowout on Rockets -9.5
The Key: As if Houston's 117-86 loss in Oklahoma City isn't enough motivation, it was defeated 106-91 in Sacramento earlier this month. Expect a big bounce back from the Rockets here. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. They have bounced back from each of their last 3 defeats with wins of 15, 17 and 13 points. They are also 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 home games versus the Kings, winning these by an average of 14.0 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +2.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Miami, which will be playing its 4th road game in 6 days and is coming off a very emotional win in Portland. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade came through for the Heat against the Trail Blazers with LeBron James sitting out, but I don't see them having enough legs left here in high-altitude Denver with James unlikely to go again. Denver has lost six straight so it will be lacking no motivation. The Nuggets are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus the Heat, and I believe their home-court will hold up. Take the Nuggets.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +6.5
The Key: The Cavs are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They are 8-6 at home on the season, and three of their losses have come by fewer than 6.5 points, which means they have won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 11 of 14 home games this season. That's a sweet 11-3 trend in our favor. The Cavs beat the Clippers by six points in one of their home games and played the Trail Blazers to a three-point contest in another, which proves they have what it takes to hang with the best of the West in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus Western Conference opponents. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bucks +7.5
The Key: Minnesota rolled at home last night against Washington, and that victory puts it in a poor spot tonight. The Timberwolves are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win and 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Minnesota shouldn't be laying this many points on the road where it is just 5-11 this season. Plus, the Bucks have won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 10 of their last 11 home meetings against Minnesota. We'll get behind this sweet 10-1 trend. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Magic +3.5
The Key: The Pistons check in off a 115-92 win at Cleveland. However, you want to fade road favorites off a double-digit road win if they have a losing record on the season. Doing so has produced a 50-26 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Pistons start a home-and-home with Washington tomorrow and will be more concerned about the Wizards. The Magic, on the other hand, will be focused on the task at hand following three consecutive defeats at home. The Magic have been very competitive against the Pistons, winning or losing by less than 3.5 points in four of their last five meetings, including all three at home during this stretch. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavs +3
The Key: The Cavs have been very competitive at home where they are 8-5 on the season. A 115-92 home loss to Detroit in their last game can't be sitting well. Neither can a 108-89 loss in Atlanta in the season's first meeting. Motivated by the loss to Detroit and further fueled by the loss to Atlanta, Cleveland will take care of business at home against the Hawks, who are just 4-9 on the road. Underdogs off an upset loss of 10 points or more that are up against an opponent off a road cover in a game they lost straight up are 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons, 11-2 ATS the last 5 seasons and 30-8 ATS since 1996. In addition, home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and check in off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 64-31 ATS since 1996. Take the Cavs.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Warriors -2
The Key: This game is about revenge for the Warriors, who lost the season's first meeting on the road. The home team has had the edge of late, going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with an average winning margin of 16.3 points. The Clippers are also just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings at Golden State. The Clippers have an even bigger game the 26th in Portland so they could be looking ahead here. Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when the total is between 205.0 and 209.5 points since the beginning of last season. It has won these contests by an average score of 110.3 to 99.2. You want to fade road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last three seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -1
The Key: As if a three-game losing streak isn't enough motivation, the Nuggets will be fueled even more so by the fact Golden State sent them home in last season's playoffs. Look for Denver to have its revenge at home, where it is 18-3 in the last 21 meetings with Golden State. The Warriors have a big Christmas game against the Clippers, and that's a revenge game so I believe they'll be looking ahead. The Warriors handled the Lakers last time out, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Take Denver.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Nets +7
The Key: Indiana will come into this game overconfident following back-to-back blowout victories and knowing Brook Lopez is out. The Nets will be the more motivated team following back-to-back defeats and a 5-point loss to the Pacers in the first meeting. They will also be the fresher side as they have had two days off while Indiana played last night. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Pacers are also on a dismal 4-15 ATS skid in road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average score of 99.3 to 92.9 in this situation. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +12.5
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats and out to avenge a 97-82 loss to Indiana in the season's first meeting, Boston will be lacking no motivation when it takes the floor this evening. The Pacers are off a 114-81 win over Houston, but you want to fade favorites of 10 points or more if they held their last opponent to 85 points or less. Doing so has produced a 409-294 ATS mark since 1996. This system is 53-31 ATS the last 3 seasons and 7-4 ATS this season. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Celtics are 3-0 ATS this season as underdogs of 12 points or more while the Pacers are 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more this season. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +4.5
The Key: Motivated by last night's embarrassing loss in Atlanta, the Jazz will take their frustrations out on a Charlotte team they have owned. Utah is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, winning them by 11.0 points on average. The Bobcats used a lot of energy in last night's comeback win in Detroit while the Jazz didn't have a single player over 30 minutes in a game that was over early. This is also Charlotte's 4th game in 5 days while it is Utah's 4th game in 7 days so the Jazz should be the fresher team. The Bobcats are 14-31 ATS in their last 45 games when playing without a day of rest. Charlotte is improved, but it has also benefited from playing in the weak Eastern Conference. It has really struggled against the West, going 15-37-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference contests. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Kings +11
The Key: The Heat won't give Sacramento their full attention following a big come from behind win over the Pacers. Expect Miami to just go through the motions here. You want to fade Friday night home favorites of 10 or more points that check in off a home win as doing so has produced a 44-18 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 32-11 ATS if the team we are fading checks in off 3 or more consecutive wins. You also want to back Friday night road underdogs of 10 or more points that check in off a double-digit road loss as doing so has produced a 38-13 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. The Heat are just 32-49 ATS when laying double-digits under Spoelstra. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage less than .400. The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +13.5
The Key: The Bulls were thumped in Houston last night, but I expect them to respond. This veteran team has a lot of pride and hasn't forgotten that it was crushed by 30 points the last time in visited Oklahoma City. It knows it needs to show up or it will be embarrassed again. The haunting memory of that defeat provides ample motivation. The Thunder are off a big win in Denver, and they have a big game in San Antonio on deck so they won't give this struggling Chicago team their full attention. The time to start fading this hot OKC squad is now as it is just 13-28 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Brooks. The Thunder are also only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points after 6 or more consecutive wins if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a losing team. Doing so has produced a 46-18 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by a total of 18 points or more ATS in their last 3 games if they have a win percentage of 25-40% and are playing a winning team. Doing so has produced a 44-17 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Pelicans +10.5
The Key: The Pelicans by 11 at Golden State last night. However, you want to back road underdogs of 10 points or more if they have a losing record and check in off a road loss of 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 100-58 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Pelicans are an impressive 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are coming off a big double-digit upset win over the Spurs. But, teams headed up by Doc Rivers are just 4-15 ATS in home games following an upset victory of 10 points or more. The Pelicans are 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings, including 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3.5
The Key: The Jazz see this game as an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column, and they'll go after it with all they've got. While its record would lead you to believe otherwise, Utah is a better team than the Magic. It has been hurt by playing in the superior Western Conference. The Jazz are just 2-6 in their last 8 games, but five of their losses during this stretch came to Indiana, Portland (twice), San Antonio and Miami. The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. They are also 2-15 ATS when laying points under coach Vaughn. The Jazz are 5-0 in their last five games against the Magic. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers +5
The Key: The Cavs aren't getting the respect they deserve at home where they have won four straight and are 7-3 on the season. They defeated the Clippers 88-82 Dec. 7 so they have shown they can take care of business against elite competition in Cleveland. The Cavs will be the fresher team tonight as they have had two days of rest while the Trail Blazers will be playing their third road game in four days, and they were pushed to overtime in their last game. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hawks -5
The Key: The Hawks went down at the Knicks last game, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season following a road loss. Look for this trend to continue against an L.A. squad that's really hurting in the backcourt. With Steve Nash, Jordan Farmar and Steve Blake all out with injuries, Kobe Bryant has been forced to play bigger minutes sooner than the Lakers would have liked. He's also been forced to handle the ball a lot more, which hasn't been a good thing since he's showing rust with 25 turnovers. Look for the Hawks to pressure Bryant to wear him out and force him into miscues. The Lakers are 11-22 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons and 16-30 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by two straight losses to Houston, the Kings will be ready to roll when they hit the floor Sunday evening. Houston will be fatigued as this will be its third road game in four days. The Kings should be the fresher side as they have had a day off in between each of their last four games. Prior to an ugly performance against Utah in their last home game, the Kings had won or lost by fewer than 6.5 points in six straight at home. This stretch included games against the Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Thunder, Lakers and Mavs. The Rockets are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons -5.5
The Key: This is a tough spot for Brooklyn as it goes on the road following last night's big win over the Clippers. That was a statement game for a Nets squad that has been a disappointment to this point, and the big win sets Brooklyn up for a letdown. The Nets lost the season's first meeting with Detroit 109-97 at home, but it's not like that loss has been eating away at them. Brooklyn feels like it is the superior team and won't draw any added motivation from the earlier defeat in this spot. The Pistons, on the other hand, will be extremely motivated because they have lost three in a row. They should also be a little more rested having had last night off. You want to fade underdogs that are out for revenge for a double-digit home loss to an opponent if that foe checks in off a road defeat. Doing so has produced an 88-46 ATS mark the last five seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by an average of 11.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Pistons are on an 8-0 ATS run versus Atlantic division opponents. Lay the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5
The Key: The Celtics needed no added motivated for this game as they will be facing their old coach, but they got it with last night's loss in Brooklyn. Expect to see a very charged-up Boston squad tonight. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Plus, the Clippers could actually be more fatigued as they will be playing their 5th road game in 8 days with a short bench. The Celtics are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. They are also on a 15-3 ATS run at home versus poor defensive teams that allow 99+ points/game. The Clippers have struggled on the road where they are just 6-6 and have won by more than 6 points only 3 times. Boston has won its last 3 at home, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Magic +6.5
The Key: The books are giving Charlotte a little too much respect tonight. The Magic see this game as a chance to end their six-game skid, and they'll go after it with all they've got. Orlando will be further fueled by losses in its last three games against Charlotte. Two of those defeats came by fewer than 6.5 points. In fact, Orlando has won or lost by less than 6.5 points in 25 of the last 28 meetings. That's a 25-3 trend I'll gladly get behind. The Bobcats upset the Warriors last time out and are just 5-17 ATS following an upset win since the start of last season. They also have a big game at Indiana up next so they could easily be looking ahead. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +2
The Key: This is an extremely tough spot for Denver, which will be playing its sixth road game in nine days. I expect the Nuggets to be feeling the effects of this gruesome stretch. To make matters worse, there's a good chance they'll be without Ty Lawson, who is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards have had two days of rest and will be playing for just the third time this month. All of these games have been at home so they haven't had to endure the extra fatigue that comes with travel. While Nene is expected to miss, I don't think it will matter as John Wall should have a big game without Lawson tiring him out on the defensive end. The Wizards are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three versus Denver, winning the last two outright as an underdog.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors +6
The Key: Toronto doesn't help itself by getting many points off turnovers as it averages just 7 steals per game. However, it should still be able to keep this one within the number given how much the Lakers are being overvalued here. Odds makers overvalue a very public L.A. team at home constantly. As a result, the Lakers are 0-8 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game under D'Antoni. This trend also indicates that teams that don't gamble a lot defensively have had a lot of success defending the Lakers. Toronto has been very competitive with L.A. lately, winning or losing by fewer than 6 points in 6 of the last 7 meetings. 4 of these games were decided by 2 points or less. Kobe Bryant is expected to make his debut although it is uncertain how many minutes he will play. Initially, I expect his presence on the court to throw a hitch in the Lakers' giddy-up as they have been used to playing without him, and the ball tends to stop when it hits his hands, disrupting the flow of the offense. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Cavaliers +6.5
The Key: Look for the Cavs to cover this number at home where they are 5-3 this season, including 2-0 against the West. Leading the charge will be Kyrie Irving, who I fully expect to bounce-back after being held scoreless for the first time in his career. The Cavs played last night but have won three of their last four in the second game of back-to-backs. Los Angeles is 0-3 on the road against the East. The Cavs are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings overall and 10-1 in the last 11 meetings at home. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +11.5
The Key: Expect a letdown from Portland following back-to-back wins over the Pacers and Thunder. After defeating those giants, it will be very difficult for the Trail Blazers to get up for the lowly Jazz. They'll likely be looking right past Utah to tomorrow's showdown with 12-8 Dallas. The Jazz have quietly covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games and have been a different team since rookie Trey Burke started logging big minutes. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more on Friday night if they check in off a home win. Doing so has produced a 47-17 ATS record the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 12.2 points but have won by only 8.8 points on average. This system is 20-5 ATS the last three seasons. You also want to back road underdogs of 10 points or more on Friday nights if they are coming off one of more consecutive losses. Doing so has produced a 72-32 ATS mark the last five seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by an average of 9.6. Take the points.

6* NBA Revenge Rout on Bucks +4.5
The Key: Milwaukee was crushed 113-94 in Detroit Nov. 25, and that loss will be all the motivation it needs here. The Bucks have the good fortune of catching Detroit at just the right time. The Pistons are riding high off last night's win in Miami, setting them up for a letdown. While both teams played last night, this is Detroit's third game in four days. Milwaukee had two days off prior to playing last night so it should be a little fresher. You want to fade favorites like Detroit that check in off a double-digit road win if they have a losing record. Doing so has produced a 47-24 ATS mark the last five seasons. You also want to back underdogs like Milwaukee that have failed to covered the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they're up against a team that has covered the number in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 69-35 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Game of the Week on Cavaliers +4.5
The Key: This is an extremely unfavorable situation for Denver, which will be playing its second road game in as many nights and its third in four days. The Cavs have three full days of preparation and fresh legs on their side, and that gives them a sizable advantage. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing record. You want to back underdogs like Cleveland that have failed to cover the number in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they're matched up with an opponent that have covered the spread in four of their last five games. That's because doing so has produced a 36-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Nets +5
The Key: The Nets picked up a much-needed, confidence-boosting win at Memphis last time out, and I expect them to carry the momentum into tonight. The season hasn't started the way Brooklyn envisioned, but it has been plagued by injuries and has played a road-heavy, challenging schedule. Still, the Nets are just 1.5 games out of first in the Atlantic division so they can remain positive knowing they can make a huge run once their health returns. They'll have Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, Kevin Garnett and Andre Blatche tonight, and this core should not be catching this many points at home against a road-weary Nuggets squad that's playing on the road for the fourth time in five games. Plus, the Nuggets have had just one day of rest in between each of their last seven games. Brooklyn has had two days to gear up for this one and the extra rest should treat it well. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The home team has dominated this series, going 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a 12.5-point average winning margin. The Nets are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against the Nuggets with their last two wins coming by 16 and 11 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Jazz +8
The Key: Expect a letdown from the Rockets following a big win in San Antonio that ended a seven-game road losing streak in the series. In addition, Houston has been far from dominant on the road where it hasn't won by more than seven points in its last five games. Houston won by 11 in Utah earlier this season. That comfortable victory, and the huge win over the Spurs, will make it rather easy for the Rockets not to give Utah their full attention. The Jazz have quietly covered the spread in seven of their last 10, and they are a different team with Trey Burke in the lineup. The rookie has averaged nearly 16.0 points while helping the Jazz with two of their last three. The Rockets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *CA$H COW* on Wizards -3.5
The Key: This is a tough situation for the Hawks, who will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their fourth game in five days after spending a lot of energy in last night's come-from-behind win over Dallas. The Wizards also played last night, but they didn't spend nearly as much energy in a lopsided loss to the Pacers. Plus, the Wizards are an impressive 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You also want to back favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points following a blowout loss of 20 points or more if they average 98-102 ppg and are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg. Doing so has produced a 38-12 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons -5
The Key: The Pistons fit perfectly into an extremely lucrative system that tells us to take home teams that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent if they also check in off an upset defeat of 15 points or more. Doing so has produced a 64-30 ATS mark since 1996. The Lakers are a dismal 8-21 as a road dog going back to the start of last season as well as a soft 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points during the same time frame. In addition, L.A. is a pitiful 1-11 ATS in road games off an upset win over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 104 to 92.1 in this spot. Lastly, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Timberwolves -6
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 117-113 loss at Denver in the season's first meeting, the Timberwolves will be all business when they take the floor tonight. Minnesota is 6-2 at home and hasn't lost three consecutive games this season. The two previous times it has dropped two in a row this season, it responded with a 116-108 home win over Dallas and a 111-81 home win over Brooklyn. The Nuggets are just 2-4 on the road and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Denver is also 2-14 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by an average of 7.7 points in this situation. The Timberwolves are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota.

6* NBA *TOP DOG* on Bobcats +8.5
The Key: The Pacers are getting too much respect on the road against a much improved Charlotte club. Indiana is 5-1 on the road, but only one of these wins came by more than 8 points. It's not like the Pacers have been playing elite competition either. Their road games have been against New Orleans (6-8), Detroit (6-8), Brooklyn (4-10), Chicago (6-7), New York (3-10) and Boston (6-10). Charlotte has been completely embarrassed the last two times it's faced the Pacers so it will bring a little something extra to the court tonight. The Bobcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 versus Eastern Conference opponents as well as 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus NBA Central division foes. The Bobcats are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +7
The Key: You want to fade home teams like Indiana that outscore their opponents by 9.0 points or more per game and are matched up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more in its last game. Doing so has produced an eye-popping 31-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 ATS this season. Minnesota is just 2-5 on the road, but four of those losses came by 4 points or less. The T-wolves lost by 11 at Houston in their last game, but they are 27-14 ATS after a loss of 10 points or more under coach Adelman. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +7
The Key: Rose is out indefinitely with a meniscus tear, but the Bulls have been through this before and will rise to the occasion in his absence. The Bulls have had a day of rest while the Clippers will be playing their second game in as many days and their fourth in five days so I believe Chicago will have more energy to exert at the defensive end. The Bulls have been the better investment of late as they have covered the spread in five of their last seven games while the Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Chicago is an impressive 55-36 ATS after one or more consecutive losses under coach Thibodeau. It is also 26-10 ATS under coach Thibs following a loss of six points or less. The Bulls have won or lost by less than 7 points or less in 8 of the last 11 meetings with the Clippers. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +13.5
The Key: Orlando will be the much more motivated team tonight after getting clubbed by Miami in its last game. Even with that loss, Orlando has won or played the Heat to within 13 points in 13 of the last 15 meetings. I expect a lackadaisical performance from the Heat here as it will be very difficult for the two-time defending champs to get their juices flowing for a team they just crushed. The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. You want to fade home favorites of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .750 or greater after 3 or more consecutive wins when they are playing a team with a losing record. Doing so has produced a 45-20 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 12.8 points on average but have won by just 9.2. You also want to back underdogs of 10 or more points that have a win percentage of .250 to .400 if they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games when they are playing a team with a winning record. That's because doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 12.2 points on average but have lost by just 9.7. Take Orlando.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Grizzlies +1.5
The Key: Memphis has rebounded following a slow start and is now ready to get a little revenge against the Spurs. San Antonio swept the Grizzlies in last season's playoffs and then beat them in the season's first meeting so this is a game Memphis wants badly. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS since the start of last season versus excellent teams that shooting 46% or better and hold opponents to 43% shooting or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 95.7 to 89.4. Also, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. Take Memphis.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bucks +5.5
The Key: You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games when they're matched up with an opponent that has covered the number in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games. That's because doing so has produced a 66-33 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 6.0 points on average, but have lost by only 2.5 points on average. This system is an explosive 24-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is a tough spot for Portland as this is its 4th road game in 6 days. The Bucks have had 3 full days off and are expected to get Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova back in the lineup. Milwaukee has given Portland fits. The Bucks are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards +5
The Key: I'll gladly take the home team catching points considering how valuable home-court has been in this series. The home team is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last 7 meetings with the six wins coming by an average of 9.7 points. Washington is 8-1 in its last 9 home games against the T-Wolves, winning these by 9.8 points on average. The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last 8 at home. In addition, Washington is 19-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons and 16-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bobcats +11.5
The Key: The Bulls are being overvalued following four consecutive SU and ATS double-digit wins. The Bobcats have won their last 3 road games outright as underdogs and will be lacking no motivated here against a Chicago team that defeated them by 30 the last time they met. Prior to that loss, Charlotte had defeated the Bulls by double digits as an 11.5 point dog and lost by only 8 points as a 13-point dog for back-to-back covers in the series. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago, and the road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are a lousy 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have shot team 42% or worse in 3 straight games when they're up against a team that has allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less in 5 straight games. Doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 12.8 points on average but have lost by just 7.3 points on average. Take the points.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -6.5
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses on the road, and further fueled by a 6-point loss at Charlotte earlier this month, Cleveland will be all business when it takes the floor this evening. The Cavs have been a different team at home where they are 3-0. Home-court advantage has also treated them well against Charlotte as they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games against the Bobcats, winning these by 16.0 points on average. Charlotte has been a lousy investment when catching points on the road as it is 16-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. It falls to 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points during this span. The Bobcats pulled off an upset win at Boston last game. However, they are 4-14 ATS off an upset win the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is also just 4-16 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Warriors Under 207
The Key: You want to play the under on all teams with a winning record playing another winning team in the first half of the season when the total is 200 to 209.5. Doing so has produced an amazing 93-36 (72.1%) mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen just 197.0 total points scored on average in this situation. We have seen 217 and 213 total points scored the last two times these teams have met, and yet we're seeing a line of 207.0? Clearly, odds makers expect Golden State's stingy defense to be more of a factor this time around. The Warriors rank 4th in field goal percentage defense and first in 3-point field goal percentage defense. The Thunder haven't been too shabby defensively either, ranking 9th in field goal percentage defense and 11th in 3-point field goal percentage defense. Take the under.

6* NBA Line Mistake on Bobcats +5.5
The Key: Boston has won four in a row since an 0-4 start and has covered the spread in its last five, but I'm not sold. The Celtics did find a way to beat a Miami team that is playing uninspired ball but their other wins against Utah and Orlando are far from impressive. Plus, two of their wins have come by two points or less. The Bobcats will be motivated here as they have lost back-to-back games after winning two in a row. Plus, they have proven they can win in a tough environment as they defeated the Knicks at MSG. The Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus NBA Atlantic division foes and 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Boston. Also, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Lakers +3.5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to several things: a 96-85 loss at New Orleans Friday, a 113-90 loss to Minnesota Sunday and the absence of Steve Nash. The Lakers had won 11 straight against New Orleans before Friday's loss so they will be hungry for revenge to say the least. They will be further motivated by Sunday's brutally embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Also, Nash hasn't been much of a factor this season as he's averaging just 6.7 points and 4.8 assists. Nash had a quiet 3 points and 5 assists in the Lakers' win over the Clippers, and he has a mediocre 12-point, 6-assist performance in their win over the Rockets. The Lakers have already defeated a pair of teams I believe will contend for the Western Conference title without much help Nash. New Orleans hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-2 with losses to the Magic and Suns, teams I believe will end up toward the bottom of their respective conferences. The Lakers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against New Orleans, winning these by 8.2 points on average.

6* NBA Annihilator on Rockets -8
The Key: Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will be extremely motivated when they take the floor this evening. As if Thursday's 1-point loss to the Lakers wasn't painful enough, Houston squandered an 11-point third-quarter lead in Saturday's 107-94 defeat to the Clippers. I have no doubt the Rockets will be all business following these results. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, which will be playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Rockets have had a day off after each of their last two games and haven't had to travel as they've been at home. They will be the fresher side. The home team has had a big edge in this series. In fact, the home team is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nets -1.5
The Key: I expect Brooklyn to hand Indiana its first defeat this evening. Brooklyn lost in OT at Washington last night but only one player logged more than 35 minutes. Plus, the Nets had two days off prior to the contest so I believe they'll be the fresher side. This will be Indiana's fourth game in five days, and it comes on the road against the deepest and most talented team it's seen thus far. Brooklyn has struggled on the road but has taken care of business on its home floor where it is 2-0 with one of those being a win over the defending champs. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Brooklyn, losing the last four straight up by an average of 10.0 points. Bet the Nets.

6* NBA Situational Annihilator on Raptors +9
The Key: This is a bad spot for Indiana. The Pacers are coming off a big win over Chicago, and they have a big game at Brooklyn tomorrow so the tendency is to look ahead. You want to fade Friday night home favorites like Indiana that are outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game as doing so has produced a 75-39 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 9.9 points on average but have won by just 7.3. The Raptors are 0-2 SU and ATS in their last two and were upset at Charlotte last game. However, they are 19-8 ATS in road games off a road loss since the start of the 2011 season. They are also on a 22-10 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games during the same time frame. The Raptors gave Indiana big problems last season. They won both meetings in Indiana straight up as 9 and 7-point dogs, respectively, and played the Pacers to a two-point game in one of the other two meetings. In fact, Toronto has won or lost by less than 9 points in 7 of its last 8 meetings with the Pacers. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -3
The Key: I fully expect Denver to break into the win column tonight at home. The Nuggets have lost their first two home games this season, and that can't be sitting well with a team that went 38-3 at home during the 2012-13 regular season. The Nuggets showed drastic improvement last game against the defending Western Conference champs, and I believe they break through here against a team they have owned. They are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against the Hawks, winning these by 9.2 points on average. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Clippers +5.5
The Key: The Clippers got caught looking ahead last night and lost to the Magic. That loss assures us they will be even hungrier when they take the floor this evening. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are coming off a win and cover against the Raptors but are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. You also want to back underdogs that average 103.0 points or more per game if they trailed in their last game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced a 54-24 ATS mark since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.8 points on average but have lost by only 2.1 points on average. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls +3
The Key: The Bulls haven't played since Nov. 2 when they blew a 20-point lead in a loss to the 76ers so they will be fresh and hungry when they hit the floor tonight. Indiana just played last night in Detroit so it is at a big disadvantage in terms of preparation. The Bulls will also be out to make a statement since they went just 1-3 against the Pacers last season. They did not have Rose, however, and are 14-6 against Indiana with Rose in the lineup. There are plenty of trends supporting this play too. Chicago is 33-12 ATS following an upset loss under coach Thibodeau. It has won by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Bulls are also 16-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses since the start of last season and 26-9 ATS after a loss by six points or less under Thibodeau. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. Take the points as the Bulls are in excellent position to hand Indiana its first loss of the season.

6* NBA Bailout on Trail Blazers -121
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Houston, which spent a lot of energy trying to get back in the game last night in L.A. Then, it had to make the long flight up to Portland and will be up against a team that has had two full days to rest up and prepare. The Blazers defeated the reigning Western Conference champs in their last game so they will be lacking no confidence. They'll also be lacking no motivation as they were embarrassed with an 18-point loss the last time Houston visited. The Rockets struggled on the road last season, and that has continued this season. They were down by 19 in Utah in their first road game before rallying and then crushed in their second road game against the Clippers last night. The Rockets are 10-25 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread since the start of the 2011-12 season. They are also 9-23 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses during the same time frame. Take Portland.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Cavaliers -2
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, look for the Cavs to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Cavs beat the Brooklyn at home in their first game of the season so they have already proven they can beat a more talented team than they'll see tonight on their home floor. Plus, they have had an extra day to rest their legs and game plan for the Timberwolves. Minnesota, on the other hand, just pulled off an upset win at Madison Square Garden yesterday so it has a quick turnaround. The Timberwolves are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 7-18 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 27-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ points per game since 1996. The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Magic +6.5
The Key: After a thrilling 1-point win over the reigning NBA champs, a game against the lowly Orlando Magic isn't going to get Brooklyn's juices flowing. Expect the Nets to come out flat here. While beating the Heat is certainly something to brag about, we can't forget that Brooklyn lost its only other road game of the season in Cleveland. We also can't forget that this team has a lot of new pieces, which likely means inconsistency early in the season. Brooklyn swept the Magic last season so Orlando will be lacking no motivation. The Nets are a soft 26-44 ATS after a cover since the 2011 season, and, zooming in, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Magic are off to a 3-0 ATS start, and I expect them to pick up another cover.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +6
The Key: Right away, one has to like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won 45-55% of their games last season are 40-12 ATS since 1996. This system has already produced a 2-0 ATS record this season. Houston is 2-0, but now it goes out on the road for the first time. The Rockets were a dismal 16-25 on the road last season, and they're visiting a team tonight that was 30-11 at home last season. Last season, the Rockets were only 4-14 ATS in road games versus teams that had a losing record, and they lost these games by 1.0 point on average. The Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Rockets are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Wizards -9.5
The Key: Riding high off a shocking with over Miami, Philadelphia is prime for a letdown. Washington, meanwhile, will be extremely hungry after dropping its opener at Detroit. And, the fact it lost by double-digits the last time it hosted the 76ers adds fuel to the fire. Everything went right for the 76ers against the Heat. They raced out to a 19-0 lead, shot the lights out (53.7%) and benefited from 19 Miami turnovers. Additionally, they caught Miami at just the right as it was coming off a big win over Chicago and looking ahead to tonight's game against Brooklyn. It all goes south for Philly here against a hungry Washington squad. The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Wizards are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bobcats +3
The Key: Cleveland's upset win over Brooklyn makes it a dead fade tonight. Consider that fading any team off an upset win in the first six games of the season, provided that team closed out last season with five or more consecutive losses, has produced a 30-8 ATS mark since 1996. In addition, the Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Bobcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Charlotte lost by 2 and won by 7 in its two home games against the Cavs last season so I like our chances catching points here.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Clippers -6.5
The Key: After laying an egg in Tuesday's opener, I expect the Clippers to be very focused and determined tonight. Historically speaking, this is a great spot for L.A. Favorites in the first six games of the season that check in off an upset loss as a road favorite (they were the designated road team in their opener) are 28-7 ATS since 1996 if they were a playoff team the previous season and lost four or more of their last five games. Teams fitting these specs have been favored by 6.7 points on average and have won 11.2 points on average. This awesome early season system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons. The Clippers have had a day to gear up for this matchup while the Warriors played at home last night and then had to make the trip south. The Warriors won three of last season's four meetings, which provides the Clippers with added motivation tonight. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on 76ers +12
The Key: Miami came out flat as expected last night. However, it went nuts in the second quarter and finished 11 of 20 from 3-point range. Off that emotional statement win, on the road and playing back-to-back, I expect a much weaker performance from the Heat. Tonight's opponent won't get their juices flowing, which means Miami will already be looking ahead to Friday's game at Brooklyn. The often overvalued Heat have been a terrible investment following any kind of win. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a game where they covered the spread. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are an impressive 55-31 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Opening Night *CA$H COW* (TNT) on Bulls +4.5
The Key: Chicago will be the more motivated team here. Tonight is about celebrating last season for Miami, which will be getting its championship rings and raising its championship banner. For Chicago, on the other hand, tonight is about sending a message to the Heat. Even without Derrick Rose, the Bulls played Miami tough last season. They split the regular-season series 2-2, and the Bulls were the team that ended Miami's 27-game win streak. The Bulls have had some success against the Heat because of how hard they work at the defensive end. I expect a very gritty performance from Chicago here as they use last year's playoff loss to Miami as motivation. Offense was an issue at times for Chicago in that playoff series, but now Rose is back. Chicago is on a 20-9 ATS run in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. It is also 77-54 ATS in road games under coach Thibodeau. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

7* NBA Finals Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -5.5
The Key: San Antonio won't be able to recover from blowing an NBA title in Game 6. The Spurs appeared to have it in the bag up five with 28 seconds left, but they let it slip through their fingertips. Besides an emotional letdown, I expect a physical letdown from the Spurs. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker both logged big minutes in Game 6. With short recovery time, it will be tough for them to be at the top of their games tonight. Miami should be able to respond better to the short turnaround and will be lifted by the home crowd. The Heat are 46-7 at home where they carry a 10.5-pt average margin of victory. Also, home teams are 41-12 in the last 53 Game 7's. Lay the points.

6* NBA Finals Game 7 "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Heat Under 189
The Key: It's hard for teams to play loose in Game 7 of the NBA Finals knowing what's at stake. We've seen a recent trend of teams struggling at the offensive end as a result. Some of the struggles can also be attributed to teams playing at a higher level on defense. We've seen only 174, 155 and 162 total points scored in the last three NBA Finals Game 7's. Playing the Under on all teams in the NBA Finals when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points has produced a 50-18 mark since 1996. We've seen just 180.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.

7* NBA Finals Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat -7
The Key: Miami hasn't lost consecutive games in these playoffs. It is a perfect 6-0 in the postseason following a loss and has won these games by an average of 20.7 points. Each of these wins have come by at least 11 points. Looking back further, the Heat haven't lost consecutive games since early January. They are 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss and have won these by an average of 19.5 points with the lowest winning margin being 10 points. The defending champs have answered the bell each time they've tasted defeat over the last five months, and I expect no different tonight on their home floor. Lay the points.