7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +16

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are finishing out their season pretty solidly.  They have won two of their last three with their only loss coming by a final of 144-143 to the Dallas Mavericks in double-overtime.  They beat the Lakers by 18 and the Kings by 11.  They will be out for revenge from a 92-107 home loss to the Clippers on April 4th just over a week ago.  The Clippers do have more to play for right now, but they're also overvalued because of it.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 15 points or less, including five by 12 points or fewer.  The Clippers are 1-8 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season.  Denver is 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.  Take Denver.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +15.5

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have a lot to play for as they have the No. 2 seed within their grasp.  There's no question they will show up tonight, but asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover this 15.5-point spread is asking too much.  The Spurs are coming off back-to-back wins over the Rockets, which has given them home-court advantage in the first round if the season were to end today.  It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after those two big wins.  Plus, the Phoenix Suns will be the No. 9 or No. 10 seed in the West for the second consecutive season.  They will want to take their frustration out on the defending champs, which is why they will show up today.  Phoenix is 50-28 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix Sunday.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors +3.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are fighting for the No. 3 seed in the East and home-court advantage in the first round.  They are currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for that spot.  There's no question that the Raptors are going to show up tonight.  Yes, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Orlando 105-103 on the road yesterday, but this isn't your normal tough back-to-back situation.  It's a short plane ride down to Miami.  I question the Heat's motivation because they are all but eliminated from the playoffs after losing to Chicago at home on Thursday.  They now trail No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn by two games with only three games to play, which is basically an insurmountable comeback.  Kyle Lowry is back healthy and expected to play tonight for the Raptors, indicating that they are All In here down the stretch.  The Heat have played their way out of the playoffs by going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and they aren't about to show up now.  Take Toronto.

7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 206

The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days.  They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday.  After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston.  They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total.  They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests.  When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Boston Celtics +6.5

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have absolutely nothing to play for.  They clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight as they take on a Boston Celtics team with everything to play for right now.  The Celtics are clinging on to one of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, just one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana, which owns the tiebreaker over both Boston and Brooklyn.  This pressure has only brought out the best in the Celtics, who have won 13 of their last 20 games while going 4-1 in their last five.  They are not only winning, they are dominating as three of their last four wins have come by double-digits.  Lebron James is expected to sit out to rest tonight, leaving the Cavaliers short-handed, and showing that they could care less if they win this game or not.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after giving up 100 points or more in two straight games.  Take Boston.

7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot.  The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn.  Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime.  Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings.  That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER.  Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans Pelicans +5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today, but there is still plenty of work left to do.  The Pelicans are 5-1 in their last six games overall to take a half-game lead on the Thunder for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They just beat the Warriors last night, and I look for them to upset the Grizzlies tonight as well.  Memphis is not playing well, going 2-4 in its last six games with all four losses coming by 9 points or more, and three of those coming at home.  Zach Randolph and Jeff Green are questionable to play tonight, and Tony Allen is out with a hamstring injury.  These injuries are really starting to take their toll on the Grizzlies, who have no business even being favored tonight in their current state.  The Pelicans are 24-11 ATS as an underdog this year.  New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 when playing on no rest.  Memphis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 3 or more days of rest.  Take New Orleans.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the East, so don't expect them to show up with any consistency the rest of the way.  The Phoenix Suns still have a fighting chance of making the playoffs.  They are three games back of the reeling Oklahoma City Thunder, who have lost three straight and five of six to give the Suns and Pelicans a chance.  Given the mental state of both these teams, there's no question there is value in backing the Suns as 7.5-point road underdogs here.  The Suns are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period.  The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter.  They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points.  They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points.  That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch.  Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz +1.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have no reason to show up right now.  They have to be checked out mentally with what has transpired over the past two weeks.  They had a legitimate shot to make the playoffs, but have blown it by going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  They now trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 games for the 8th and final playoff spot with only six games to play and a brutal schedule ahead.  The last straw for them had to be their 106-107 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  I don't even expect them to show up tonight.  The Utah Jazz have been showing up in a big way over the past two months.  They are 17-8 SU & 15-9-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone 3-0 in their last three with a 5-point home win over Oklahoma City, a 20-point win at Minnesota, and a 14-point home win over Denver.  The Jazz have also won three of their last four meetings with Phoenix.  Utah is 17-8-2 ATS in its last 27 road games.  The Jazz are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Phoenix.  Take Utah.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +13

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, which in turn has forced oddsmakers to jack up the price of backing the Spurs.  This has provided us with ample opportunity to fade them at a great value tonight in taking the Denver Nuggets as double-digit dogs.  The Nuggets are quietly playing some really good basketball down the stretch, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, yet the betting public still wants nothing to do with them.  These teams have met three times already this year, and while San Antonio is 3-0, all three victories came by 10 points or less.  I believe that will be the case again in the 4th and final meeting.  Denver is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better in the second half of the season this season.  The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take Denver.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5

They Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are trying to lock up the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are only a couple victories away from doing so.  Now, they enter this game on three days' rest, which is rare for this late in the year.  You can expect their best effort tonight against Lebron's former team in the Miami Heat.  They want revenge from losing two of the first three meetings of the season to the Heat, both coming on the road.  In their lone home meeting, the Cavs won 113-93, and a similar blowout can be expected tonight.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5 games clear of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.  They aren't safe at all, and they really need to win this game at home against the Dallas Mavericks tonight, so motivation won't be an issue for them.  I question the Mavericks' motivation considering they have lost four of their last five games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Dallas is now three games ahead of OKC and three games behind San Antonio for the No. 6 seed, so it pretty much has the No. 7 seed locked up unless the Thunder catch them, which they'll be motivated to do to avoid Golden State in the first round.  Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Mavs are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams that average at least 83 shots per game, or ones that play at a fast pace.  Take this 18-0 ATS Angle backing the Thunder straight to the bank tonight.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks (36-38) still have a lot of work to do.  They have not clinched a playoff spot yet, but more importantly, they don't want to fall to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.  They are currently No. 6, and if they finish there that means they'll avoid Cleveland and Atlanta in the first round.  They are two games clear of No. 7 Miami.  I look for them to be playing highly motivated basketball at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have all but clinched a first-round series at home.   Milwaukee comes into this game undervalued after losing eight of its last 10, while Chicago is overvalued after winning five of its last six.  Well, the Bucks have played a brutal schedule here of late as each of their last 10 games have come against playoff contenders, including the last two against Golden State and Atlanta.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Bulls are 14-27 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Bulls are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Spurs/Heat NBA on TNT *CA$H COW* on San Antonio -7

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs still have their sights set on earning home-court advantage at least for the first round of the playoffs.  They are only 1.5 games out of that coveted 4th spot, and they could move all the way up to No. 2 if things break right down the stretch.  They are certainly playing their best basketball of the season right now with what's at stake.  The Spurs are 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Their last three wins have come by 39, 18 and 14 points over three playoff teams in OKC, Dallas and Memphis, respectively.  Now, they take a big step down in competition against the Miami Heat tonight.  The Heat have a long list of injuries and are short-handed right now.  Chris Bosh was already out, but Hassan Whiteside, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, Chris Andersen and Shabazz Napier are all questionable to play tonight.  The Spurs are 47-22-1 ATS in their last 70 vs. NBA Southeast.  The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southwest.  Miami is 27-56-4 ATS in its last 87 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season, winning by 13.9 points per game in this spot.  Take San Antonio.

7* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +7.5

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and home-court advantage.  They literally have nothing to play for the rest of the way as the Golden State Warriors are running away with home-court advantage throughout in the West, and they are five games clear of Atlanta with nine games to play.  The Milwaukee Bucks (36-37) have plenty to play for.  They want to at least get the No. 6 seed in the East, which would have them avoiding Cleveland in the first round.  They are only two games clear of Miami for the No. 6 seed, so there's still a lot of work to do.  The Hawks have lost four of their last six and appear to just be coasting to the finish line.  Milwaukee is 24-12 ATS in all road games this season.  The Bucks are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Take Milwaukee.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are stuck in log jam in the Eastern Conference.  There are five teams from No. 7 through No. 11 in the East who are within two games of one another.  The Pacers are currently that No. 11 team, so they are really looking at every game from here on out as a must-win.  They come into this game undervalued due to having lost seven of their last eight games overall, but they had won seven straight prior to this streak, which has mostly come against elite competition.  Dallas isn't playing that well itself right now, having lost three of four while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Pacers will be fresh coming into this game considering they've had two days off since last losing to the Bucks on Thursday.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive unders this season.  The Mavs are 0-9 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average at least 83 shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games overall.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Pacers straight to the bank tonight.  Take Indiana.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Key: Both the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets will be playing the second of a back-to-back Saturday.  The difference is that the Hawks are the deeper team, and also that the Hornets went to overtime last night against Washington.  This will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Hornets, while it will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Hawks.  Atlanta is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Hawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Atlanta is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Charlotte is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Charlotte.  Take Atlanta.

6* Blazers/Suns NBA Friday Night 'Bailout' on Phoenix +1

The Key: The Phoenix Suns have won four of their last five games overall to pull within three games of Oklahoma City for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.  They are obviously in must-win mode from here on out, otherwise they'll fall just short of making the playoffs for a second straight year.  Portland is not playing well coming in and should not be favored in this game.  It has lost five of its last six games overall.  It is just 17-18 on the road this season as well.  The Suns have had the Blazers' number in winning seven of the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.  The Suns are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 9-1 ATS versus excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or better over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Phoenix is 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 home meetings.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers have quietly been a very profitable bet at the pay window here of late.  They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They went on the road last time out and beat Denver handily 99-85.  They have now won three of their last five games outright, which includes a 94-83 home win over Detroit and a 97-81 home victory over New York.  The Clippers come into this game getting too much respect for the books due to their five-game winning streak, which included a 31-point win at New York last time out.  The 76ers are 11-1 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS in home games revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more this season.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203

The Key: Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  Boston is currently the No. 8 team in the East, just one-half game ahead of Charlotte.  It has three teams within 1.5 games of it for the 8th spot.  Miami is currently the 7th team in the East, just one game ahead of Boston.  It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  Miami and Boston have combined for 197 or fewer points in five straight meetings, averaging 181.6 combined points per game in those five contest.  The total has been set at 203 tonight, meaning that we're receiving roughly 21 points of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Nets/Hornets UNDER 197.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are both barely on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Hornets trail the Celtics by a half-game for the No. 8 seed, while the Nets are 1.5 games back.  It's safe to say that both of these teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  That's why I like the UNDER in this game tonight.  I believe there is value here because the last four meetings have all seen 201 or more combined points.  Charlotte is shooting just 39.2 percent while averaging 88.8 points in its last five games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 UNDER in its last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Key: This is the ultimate spot to fade the Golden State Warriors.  They have the No. 1 seed in the West pretty much wrapped up at 57-13 on the season, so I question their motivation coming into this one, especially with how tired they are right now.  The Warriors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This will also be their 8th game in the past 12 days.  This team is simply running on fumes right now.  Portland, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest so it will be fresh and ready to go.  It will also be motivated to put an end to a four-game losing streak, all of which have come on the road.  The Blazers are 28-6 at home this season.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets -4

The Key: The Booklyn Nets (29-39) trail the Boston Celtics (30-39) by a half-game and the Charlotte Hornets by a full game for the No. 8 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, the Nets are going to be motivated, and that motivation here of late has led to some promising results.  Indeed, the Nets have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Cleveland, which is arguably the best team in the NBA right now.  The Celtics have dropped three straight following their 97-105 home loss to Detroit yesterday.  Now, the Celtics will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days, which is a very tough spot.  The Nets check in on one days' rest following their 12-point win at Indiana on Saturday.  The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Phoenix Suns +4

The Key: The Phoenix Suns still find themselves right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.  They trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by just 2.5 games for the 8th and final spot.  They have won three straight coming in with a 13-point home win over New York, a 2-point home win over New Orleans, and a 15-point road win at Houston.  They are playing great right now, which is why they should not be home underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  Dallas is 3-14 ATS off a combined score of 205 or more points this season.  Phoenix is 25-11 ATS off a road win over the last two years.  The Mavs are 0-7 ATS in road games against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Suns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

6* Jazz/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on UNDER 194.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been UNDER machines ever since trading Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City and inserting the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  They are 14-2 UNDER in their last 16 games overall despite having each of their last 15 totals set at 192.5 points or lower.  So, this 194.5-point total tonight between the Jazz and the Warriors is the highest a total has been set in a Utah game since February 11th.  There is clearly some value here with this UNDER today folks, especially with the Warriors missing one of their best players in Klay Thompson.  The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are pretty much in must-win mode right now at 27-39 on the season.  They trail the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by 2.5 games, but there's a pack of teams right around there that could get in.  They will need a big finish, and it starts tonight with a home game against Milwaukee.  The Nets will also be motivated after losing the first two meetings with the Bucks this season with one in overtime and one by 6 points.  Milwaukee is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  The Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Take Brooklyn.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189

The Key: When you look at the head-to-head history of this series between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls and Pacers have combined for 182, 182, 189, 166, 170, 204, 187, 171 and 189 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  As you can see, eight of those nine meetings saw 189 or fewer combined points.  I'll take this 8-1 (89%) trend backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Wizards -2

The Key: The Washington Wizards have turned things around here of late.  They have won three straight games in blowout fashion over Charlotte by 26, Memphis by 20 and Sacramento by 16.  They should have an excellent chance to continuing this recent roll due to their current status physically; this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Portland is playing well having won eight of its last nine, but it is in a difficult spot here tonight.  It is playing its 3rd game in 4 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The home team is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meeting.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their 14-50 record on the season.  They have also failed to cover the spread in three straight tough road games at LA Clippers, Phoenix and Oklahoma City.  They lost all three of those games by 14 points or less.  I like backing them now off three straight ATS non-covers as this number has been inflated to 12.5.  San Antonio is getting too much love from the books due to covering five of its last seven ATS.  Minnesota is 27-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.  San Antonio is 2-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Spurs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Sacramento Kings +9

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* Pistons/Blazers NBA "BAILOUT" on Portland -8.5

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Rockets/Blazers Western Conference "BAILOUT" on Portland -2.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are back to having one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have gone 26-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  Rarely will we get the chance to back them as only 2.5-point favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall, which includes victories over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers and Dallas.  The home team has won four of the past five meetings between these teams.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Key: I look for the Milwaukee Bucks to continue their dominant ways at home.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 home games overall.  The only reason they are just a 1.5-point favorite here is because they have lost four of their last five coming in, but all four of those losses were on the road.  The Pelicans come in getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers due to winning seven of their last nine, but most of those wins came against a weak schedule.  I'll back the home team laying the small number.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +11

The Key: The Cavaliers are on the second of a back-to--back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This is a great situation to fade them, especially with playing the Hawks last night, who are their biggest defenders in the East.  Take the Suns.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -6

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  The Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go.  They are fighting to make the Eastern Conference Playoffs and will be highly motivated for a win as a result.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS off four straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  Take Indiana.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -1

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are without three key players right now.  They are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  They are also without key role player Taj Gibson (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg).  They have struggled here of late going 1-2 in their last three games, which includes a pair of double-digit home losses to Charlotte and the LA Clippers.  Washington just recently got back Bradley Beal from an 8-game absence, and the Wizards promptly put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 99-95 victory over the Pistons.  Now at full strength, the Wizards will be a tough out going forward.  They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to Chicago.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings as well.  Take Washington.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They used a lot of energy coming back from 26 points down to beat Boston yesterday.  The Nets come into this game on a days' rest after beating the Mavericks by 10 on the road Saturday.  They will be the fresher team in this one.  The Warriors will be playing their 10th road game in an 11-game stretch and could not be more tired.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their first nine road games during this stretch.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best ball of the season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against a team that wins 60% or more of its games.  Take the Nets.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +4

The Key: Despite over 70% of the betting public being on the Cavaliers tonight, this line has actually dropped from -5 to -3.5 as of this writing.  The smart money is clearly on the Pacers in this one.  The Cavaliers are overvalued here due to having won 18 of their last 20.  Well, they couldn't be in a worse spot tonight.  They are primed for a letdown following their big win over the Warriors last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pacers come in fully rested having last played on Tuesday.  Indiana is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall, which includes home wins over Cleveland and Golden State.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Take Indiana.

7* Warriors/Cavaliers TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3.5

The Key: The Cavaliers are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall.  They have won all 17 games by at least 5 points, and 11 of those by double-digits.  To say they are rolling would be a massive understatement.  The Warriors have continued their winning ways as well, but they have been overvalued here of late and continue to be tonight.  Golden State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has gone on the road and lost to Atlanta and Indiana, while also barely beating Philadelphia by 5 and Minnesota by 3 during this stretch.  The Cavs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes, proving that they are arguably the best team in the NBA against what is the best conference.  Cleveland is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns -6

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have absolutely quit on head coach Brian Shaw.  They are 2-16 in their last 18 games overall, and it has been even worse since the All-Star Break.  They have lost all three games since the break with an 8-point loss at Milwaukee, a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City, and a 28-point home loss to Brooklyn while looking lifeless on the court.  Phoenix is struggling as well, losing five straight and eight of nine, but it has been competitive.  The Suns have lost four of their last five games by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games more than anything.  The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

7* Pacers/Thunder Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Key: The Thunder are without Kevin Durant right now, but I believe the oddsmakers are over-adjusting for it.  They have been without Durant the past two games and haven't missed a beat.  They won 110-103 at Charlotte as 4.5-point favorites and 119-94 at home against Denver as 8.5-point favorites.  They have actually won four in a row and seven of their last nine without Durant.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has won 11 of 12 at home, and it is 8-1 SU in its last nine home meetings with Indiana.  The Pacers are in a letdown spot here off their huge win over the Warriors on Sunday.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have lost road games to Sacramento (101-109) and the Lakers (111-118) in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  They even went to overtime against the Lakers last night, which will only add to their fatigue.  Phoenix comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Minnesota (109-111) and at Chicago (107-112) coming out of the break.  The Suns are still right in the thick of the Western Conference No. 8 seed race, so they are motivated right now.  The Suns are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Celtics.  Boston is 1-10 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  Phoenix is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season.  Take this combined 20-1 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  They are just 10-16 away from home where they are getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  They do have Anthony Davis back healthy, but Jrue Holiday remains out with an injury.  The Magic are fully healthy as arguably their best player in Tobias Harris is expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It continues to be undervalued here as 5.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on home underdogs like the Magic after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 80-41 (66.1%) ATS since 1996.  Take Orlando.

7* Mavericks/Thunder TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Key: The Thunder were red hot going into the All-Star Break, and I look for them to come out of it the same way.  They have won five of their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits.  This team is on a mission as it is now just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.  Oklahoma City has won 11 of its last 14 meetings with Dallas.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic +9

The Key: The Magic are playing some great basketball here of late as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Oklahoma City by 7 as 10.5-point dogs, at San Antonio by 7 as 13.5-point dogs, at home against Chicago by 1 as 6-point dogs, and beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They want revenge on the Wizards after losing their first three meetings this season by 7, 5, and 2 points.  They should have a great chance to take this one right down to the wire considering how poorly Washington is playing of late.  It has lost five of its last six games overall, and it is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.  The Magic are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Orlando.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks may have the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, but that's the reason they are overavlued at this point in the season, especially tonight as only 2-point road underdogs to the Grizzlies.  This is the perfect spot to fade the Hawks, who are set up to have a letdown following their big win over the Warriors on Friday.  The Grizzlies continue to get no respect.  They have won 12 of their last 14 games overall and are 21-5 at home this season.  They have held their last nine opponents to an average of 86.3 points per game.  Their defense is the reason they'll prevail tonight.  Take the Grizzlies.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -4

The Key: The Orlando Magic are favored for good reason here.  They have lost 10 straight coming in, but their opponents in the Lakers have lost 11 of their last 12.  This is bad versus worse here tonight, and I'll side with the bad.  That's because the Magic have showed me a lot in their last two games.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, and by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs.  I fully expect them to put an end to their losing streak tonight.  After all, the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Lakers are 0-8 in their last eight road games will all eight losses coming by 4 points or more.  Seven of those eight losses have come by 8 points or more as well.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks expended a lot of energy last night trying to keep up with the Golden State Warriors in a 114-128 shootout.  Not only will they be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.  I don't expect them to have a lot left to give against the Sacramento Kings tonight, especially since they're short-handed playing without Rajon Rondo.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Take the Kings.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Spurs OVER 203

The Key: The Orlando Magic have become a more up-tempo team in recent weeks.  It hasn't worked out very well for them at all, but it has been very good for "over" bettors.  The Magic are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall.  Their defense has been absolutely atrocious as they have allowed 101 or more points in 13 straight games.  Off a poor offensive performance last time out against the Clippers, look for the Spurs to get back on track offensively in this one.  The last time these teams met in San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-112 for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The OVER is 15-5 in Spurs last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -8

The Key: The Blazers will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost eight of their last 10 games overall.  Seven of those losses came against playoff teams, and seven came by 7 points or less.  The Jazz come in riding high off a huge upset win over the Golden State Warriors, setting them up for a letdown spot tonight.  The Jazz are just 8-16 on the road this season.  The Blazers have won their last four meetings with the Jazz by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Plays against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five years.  Take the Blazers.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +7.5

The Key: Off Wednesday's big win over Dallas, Houston will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Celtics. Fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 53-21 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. After going 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS versus the likes of the Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Jazz, Boston was crushed by the miserable T-wolves. You can bet that loss isn't setting well. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Western Conference foes. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -8

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Knicks following last night's big upset win over the Thunder. They are just 3-20 on the road and 1-10 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are 0-7 in their last seven in Indiana and have lost these by an average of 14.9 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mavericks +4

The Key: Dallas fits into a strong situation. You want to play underdogs that are seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent when their opponent checks in off two or more consecutive road wins. Doing so has produced a 34-13 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Mavericks are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss, 64-30 ATS in their last 94 road games and 43-19 ATS in their last 62 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* on Bulls +6

The Key: The Spurs are being overvalued on the road against a Chicago team that I believe will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight. The Bulls have lost six of eight, a stretch that caused Derrick Rose to call out the team. I expect them to respond knowing that anything less than an all-out effort won't be good enough tonight. Chicago's biggest issues of late have been on the defensive side of the court, and that's something that can be corrected with better effort. We are now over the halfway point of the season, which bodes well for us tonight as the Bulls are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach Thibodea. They have won these contests by an average score of 95.8 to 91.5. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +11.5

The Key: Atlanta is being overvalued here because it has won 13 straight while covering the spread in the last 12. The fact the Pacers have lost five straight and have failed to cover the spread in their last seven is adding to the value. Consider that road underdogs of 10 points or more that have lost four or five of their last six games and are matched up against a team that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 79-43 (65%) ATS the last five seasons. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +8.5

The Key: Denver was completely embarrassed at Golden State last night and will come out focused and hungry as a result. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home even against good road teams and are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is off a convincing win over Utah but is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Thunder +2.5

The Key: This is one of the most motivated spots of the season for the Thunder, who have lost three of four. They were hit hard in the first quarter by Houston last night and played catch up the rest of the way. They will come out a lot more focused and energized from the tip tonight as a result. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue as they had five days off prior to last night's game. Adding to the motivation is the fact that Golden State has won each of the season's first three meetings. The Thunder were embarrassed at Golden State earlier this month and will be out for some serious revenge. The Warriors haven't been quite the same team on the road where they have lost three of their last four. They've also had a rough go in Oklahoma City where they are 1-10 in their last 11. The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Thunder.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +10

The Key: Washington is being overvalued following back-to-back impressive wins over the Spurs and Bulls. It knew it had to be on top of its game to get those two, but now it takes a step down in competition and the tendency will be to lose focus. The Wizards are a weak 19-31 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and 5-15 ATS during this span in home games after a stretch of covers in four or five or their last six games. Brooklyn will be highly motivated tonight as it looks to end a seven-game skid. Despite the losing streak, it has been pretty competitive as the losses have come by an average of just 7.4 points. The Nets are a better team than they've shown lately, and I expect a strong effort here. Brooklyn is 11-2 ATS after two straight double-digit losses over the last three seasons. It is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games going back to the beginning of last season. The Nets are also 21-5 ATS the last three seasons in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1.5

The Key: The Thunder have the edge tonight against a Houston team that is playing its second game in as many nights, its third in four days and 9th in 14 days. The Thunder haven't played since last Friday and will undoubtedly be the fresher and more prepared side. OKC lost the season's first meeting but didn't have Durant or Westbrook for that one. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back road teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they are playing for just the third time or less in a 10-day span. Doing so has produced a 39-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the Thunder.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bulls -5.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Washington, which is off a big win over the defending champion Spurs last night. It's asking too much of the Wizards to keep this one close against a more rested and hungry Chicago squad. Not only will the Bulls be fueled by an upset loss to lowly Orlando but also by an embarrassing loss in Washington last week. In a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%, you want to back a team off an upset loss in a game in which it was favored by 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 34-11 (76%) ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back favorites that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent when they check in off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 60-30 (67%) ATS mark since 1996. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wizards -1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Wizards. They will be extremely hungry following an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last game. They'll also be motivated by a recent loss to the Spurs in San Antonio. Home court has been good to the Wizards as they are 16-4 at home on the season. They are also an outstanding 25-11 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5

The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road where it is 6-13 on the season, including 0-4 in its last four. It is also 0-6 on the season in road games against the East. The Pelicans are off a big 11-point win over Southwest division co-leader Memphis, but they are on a 3-20 ATS slide in road following a win of 10 points or more over a division opponent. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Heat +10

The Key: The Heat have had two days to rest up and prepare for this contest after taking it on the chin in Portland, and they will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a November 17-point home loss to the Clippers. LA is off a dominant performance against Dallas yesterday, but fatigue should be an issue as the regulars logged considerable playing time. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You want to fade favorite of 10 points or more that have won three of their last four games if they carry win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 78-42 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Miami is 10-1 ATS the last two seasons after a stretch where it fails to cover the spread six or seven times in an eight-game span. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5

The Key: This is a great spot for the Spurs who have had the last two days off. In fact, they've had two days off after each of their last three games so they should be fresh here. The Suns, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in four days. Not only will San Antonio be fresher, it will be hungrier following a home loss to Detroit in which it blew an 18 point lead. Adding fuel to the fire is a five-point loss at Phoenix in the season's first meeting. The Spurs don't like losing at home and are 18-6 ATS off a home loss the last three seasons and have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Raptors -12

The Key: Charlotte is playing its best basketball of the season, but it runs into a buzz saw tonight. This will be the second game in as many nights for the Hornets, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. They won't have enough left in the tank to content with a Toronto team that has had the last three days off. The Hornets are 23-48 ATS in their last 71 games when playing without a day of rest while the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on three days of rest or more. The Raptors will also be highly motivated because they have lost their last three with the last two losses being ugly. They are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following two straight losses of 15 points or more. Charlotte is 15-29 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog of 10 points or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +4

The Key: The Kings are showing value catching points against a Detroit team that is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Kings were a terrible investment in December but are now showing great value here as odds makers have overadjusted their lines. You want to take underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they are taking on an opponent that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 77-37 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Magic +1.5

The Key: Brooklyn is primed for a letdown as it has won five of six and is coming off a big win over Chicago. It also has a revenge game against Miami on deck so it will likely be looking ahead to that matchup rather than focusing on a team it defeated by eight points earlier this season. The home team has had a significant edge in this series as it is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.2 points. Take Orlando.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs +1

The Key: Even if Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard doubtful, I like the Spurs at home in what should be a highly motivated spot. The Spurs have lost their last two and were routed in the season's first meeting with Houston so they will be out for payback. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 31-7 ATS mark the last five seasons.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pistons +2.5

The Key: The Pacers have been a terrible investment when coming off a win as they are on a 12-26-1 ATS slide following victory. Indiana is coming off a nice upset win at home over New Orleans but is a pathetic 2-12 ATS following an upset win at home under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average score of 96.0 to 87.6 in this situation. The Pistons have had the last four days off and spent that time focusing on defense. I expect a strong defensive effort here. I also expect the offense to be much more efficient after getting rid of Josh Smith, who led the team in field-goal attempts despite shooting just 39.1 percent. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +5.5

The Key: The Cavs are being overvalued here on the road where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Cleveland has been inconsistent defensively this season and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Cavaliers are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat got caught looking ahead to this matchup and lost to lowly Philadelphia as a result. They'll be even more focused and motivated here because of that defeat. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Miami will be looking to send a message to LeBron James that he made the wrong decision. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bucks -5.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Hornets, who are playing their second game in as many nights and fourth in five days. Milwaukee will be the much fresher side as it has had the last two days off. The Hornets are 21-47 ATS in their last 68 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bucks should also be the hungrier side as they have lost six straight to Charlotte, including a two-point loss in their season opener. The Bucks are 15-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Milwaukee has taken care of business against weaker competition as it is 11-2 ATS versus teams with losing records this season. It has also bounced back nicely at 11-2 ATS following a loss on the season. You want to fade underdogs that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game if that have a win percentage of just .250 to .400 on the season. Doing so has produced a 26-4 ATS mark the last five seasons.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Rockets -3.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Portland. The Trail Blazers are playing their third road game in three days, and this stretch started with a triple-overtime contest. Houston, which has been at home and has had a day of rest in between each of its last two games, will be the fresher side. It will also be the hungrier side. Not only will the Rockets be out to end a two-game skid, they'll be out for revenge for last season's playoff loss to Portland. The Rockets are 20-8 ATS at against teams with winning percentages above 70% under McHale. The Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points.

6* NBA Annihilator on Kings -7

The Key: Motivated by five consecutive defeats and out for revenge for a three-point setback in L.A. Dec. 9, the Kings will be hungry. Recent history suggests this is great spot to back the Kings as well as a great spot to fade the Lakers. Consider that Sacramento is 10-1 ATS the last three seasons following five or more consecutive defeats. In addition, the Lakers are 3-12 ATS the last two seasons after covering the number in three of their last four games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5

The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +8

The Key: The Pistons hold major motivational edges in this game. They will be highly motivated tonight as they try to snap an ugly 11-game losing streak at home. They'll also be fueled by a three-game losing streak to the Raptors. Toronto will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Pistons on the road. We saw this in its most recent road game when it defeated the Knicks by only five points. Toronto is off a 105-89 win over Brooklyn but is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 52-20 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +1.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including a 108-96 loss in Houston Dec. 13, the Nuggets will bounce back strong at home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. The Nuggets are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 home games versus teams with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 10.2 points. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four visits to the Mile High City. Take Denver.