6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Memphis +3.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled all offseason.  They have lost 13 straight to UCF and enough is enough.  Five of those losses have come by a TD or less and many have been recently.  UCF is ripe for the picking this year as evidenced by their 26-34 loss to Tulsa as 20.5-point favorites last time out.  They are missing several players to injury or personal reasons, and they are the most penalized team in the country.  The Tigers are 14-4 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent and are coming off a 3-point loss to a very good SMU team on the road.  The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home matchups with UCF.  Take Memphis.

6* Pitt/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Key: The Pitt Panthers could easily be 5-0 this year.  But they are coming off 2 straight crushing 1-point losses and want to rebound in a big way here if they want any chance to win the Coastal.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, who got a dose of reality latst week in losing 17-42 to Clemson.  They were outgained by 340 yards by the Tigers and held to just 210 total yards.  Pitt has an elite defense that only gives up 264 YPG and 4.2 YPP this year.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and their offense has been great through the air and will test this Miami defense.  This spread is way higher than it should be.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -3

The Key: There has been nothing fraudulent about Liberty’s 3-0 starts with wins over WKU, FIU and LA Monroe.  They are averaging 471 YPG on offense and giving up just 264 YPG on defense, outgaining opponents by 207 YPG.  Syracuse is 1-3 with some terrible stats to boot.  The Orange are averaging just 254 YPG on offense and yielding 476 YPG on defense, getting outgained by 222 YPG.  And Syracuse just lost starting QB Tommy Devito to a season-ending ankle injury late in the loss to Duke last week.  That’s a huge blow as they will now have to turn to Rex Culpepper at quarterback.  Liberty is favored for good reason here and should be a bigger favorite.  Take Liberty.

6* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +6

The Key: The price is right to back Kentucky in a game that I view as very evenly-matched, so getting 6 points is a nice value.  Kentucky really should be 3-0, but since they are 1-2 there’s value in the line.  They outgained Auburn by 60 yards in a loss.  They missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss that cost them the game.  And their true colors showed last week in a dominant 24-2 win over Mississippi State.  Tennessee was fortunate to beat South Carolina in the opener.  And they were exposed last week in a 21-44 loss to Georgia.  If they wanted to win the SEC East, they needed to win that game against the Bulldogs.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat and won’t be fully recovered in time to face this hungry Wildcats squad.  Kentucky is 10-2 ATS off a home win over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record.  The Vols are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Kentucky.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

6* Georgia State/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Georgia State +3.5

The Key: Georgia State returned 16 starters from the team that beat Arkansas State 52-38 last year.  The Panthers had 39 first downs and 722 total yards in that game while limiting Arkansas State to 421 total yards.  The Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime and crushed East Carolina 49-29.  And now the Panthers have nearly 2 weeks to get ready for this game with Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday against Central Arkansas after getting crushed by Coastal Carolina, 23-52.  So Arkansas State has just 4 days to prepare for Georgia State.  They are at a severe disadvantage here schedule-wise, especially since their team has been hit hard by Covid-19 in the past few weeks.  Take Georgia State.

6* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana -7

The Key: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 last year on the road.  If oddsmakers would have set this line before the season, Louisiana would be a minimum of a 14-point favorite and probably higher.  But we are getting Louisiana at -7 here despite the fact that Louisiana is 3-0 and has done what they are supposed to do.  They’ve done even more than that with their upset road win in the opener.  And they did not play well their last 2 games and still won, and part of that was due to a letdown and also Covid-19 problems.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are rested and back healthy now since they haven’t played since September 26th.  Coastal Carolina is also 3-0 but against a much softer schedule in Kansas, Campbell and Arkansas State.  This is a big step up for them and I don’t think they’re ready for it.  Louisiana should show out on this ESPN spotlight game tonight.  Take Louisiana.

6* Miami/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes finally have a QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The rest has fallen into place as the Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start this year.  They beat a pesky UAB team 31-14, had no trouble in beating a good Louisville team 47-34 on the road, and blasted Florida State 52-10 at home.  Now the Hurricanes have had 2 weeks to get ready for Clemson after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Clemson played Virginia last week in a 41-23 win, failing to cover as 28-point favorites.  And they weren’t very impressive at all as they only outgained Virginia by 49 yards.  This is easily Clemson’s toughest test yet after also playing lowly Wake Forest and The Citadel.  The Tigers always come close to getting upset every year in one game, and this appears to be the one.  King is completing 67% of his passes with 6 TD and 0 INT, while also rushing for 157 yards and a score.  He is the game changer the Hurricanes have been missing, and he’s the reason they have a chance to hang with Clemson Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* FSU/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Florida State +21

The Key: You won’t find the Florida State Seminoles at a better price than they are right now.  That’s because they are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS to start the year.  But this team still has a ton of talent, and should have more continuity now under first-year head coach Mike Norvell.  Notre Dame only beat an 0-4 Duke team 27-13 in the opener.  So if Duke can hang around, Florida State certainly can.  The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off 2 consecutive home wins.  The price is right to back the Seminoles.  Take Florida State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

6* Tulane/Houston NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Michael Pratt took over early in the 1st quarter for the terrible Keon Howard and promptly led Tulane to 66 points in a 66-24 victory over Southern Miss last time out.  It’s a big upgrade at the QB position with his dual-threat skills.  And Tulane should keep it rolling offensively against Houston this week.  The Cougars have an offensive genius as a head coach in Dana Holgorsen, and he is working with 10 returning starters on offense and a terrible defense.  There should be some offensive fireworks in this one.  These teams combined for 69 points last year and 65 points two years ago, so this one should have no problem topping the 59-point total.  The Green Wave are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games after scoring 20 points or more at halftime in 2 straight games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Texas Tech/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State -2

The Key: “We better put it behind us in a. Hurry or we’re going to not be ready on Saturday,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said. “What you did today is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do the next day.  Right now, we have to move on.  That’s been our mantra for a year-plus.  Stack great days and don’t worry about yesterday, worry about today.  Let’s win this dang day.”  I love the quotes coming from Klieman leading up to this game against Texas Tech.  And I think with the veteran leadership the Wildcats have, they can avoid the dreaded letdown off their incredible upset of Oklahoma as 28-point dogs last week.  I think getting humbled in their opener by Arkansas State, losing outright as 15-point dogs will make it easier to avoid that letdown.  Texas Tech blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes and lost in OT to Texas last week.  That’s harder to recover from.  And remember Texas Tech only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 as a 40.5-point favorite in their opener.  The fact of the matter is Kansas State is the better team in this matchup, and if they just show up with their ‘B Game’ they will win and cover.  The Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU loss.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Texas Tech.  Take Kansas State.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3

The Key: Arkansas State has been impressive against two tough opponents this year.  They only lost by 13 on the road to Memphis and upset Kansas State as 15-point road underdogs.  Then Kansas State went on to beat Oklahoma outright as a 28-point dog last week.  And keep in mind the Red Wolves didn’t have 10 starters for that game against K-State due to Covid-19.  Now they should be back to full strength this week and blast Coastal Carolina, which has played a much easier schedule in beating Kansas and Campbell thus far.  The Red Wolves have won all 3 matchups with Coastal Carolina over the last 3 years by an average of 21 PPG.  Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on West Virginia ML +115

The Key: Neal Brown is in his 2nd season at West Virginia.  They only had 7 starters back last year in his first season and still managed to win 5 games, including 3 Big 12 road games, which is no small feat.  But now Brown has 14 starters back this year and this should be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Baylor is the team rebuilding with just 9 starters back for new head coach Dave Aranda.  The Bears’ 47-14 win over Kansas last week was so misleading.  They only outgained Kansas by 24 yards and managed just 352 total yards.  But they got 2 special teams touchdowns.  West Virginia played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 13-27 final score would indicate last week as well.  The Mountaineers outgained the Cowboys by 11 yards and held them to just 342 total yards.  West Virginia only lost 14-17 at Baylor as 17.5-point dogs last year.  It’s revenge time as WVU looks to improve to 5-0 SU in home matchups with Baylor since joining the Big 12.  Take West Virginia on the Money Line.

6* South Carolina/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +17

The Key: This has been a very closely contested series between South Carolina and Florida through in the year.  Each of the last 7 matchups were decided by 13 points or fewer, so with this 17-point spread I like the price we are getting on the Gamecocks.  South Carolina only lost 27-31 to a very good Tennessee team last week.  Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but gave up 613 total yards in the process and only outgained the Rebels by 29 yards.  That’s an Ole Miss team in transition with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin.  The Gamecocks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

6* NC State/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -6.5

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back this year.  NC State went 4-8 lsat year and has 15 starters back.  But the defense is clearly atrocious after giving up 42 points to Wake Forest last week.  Virginia Tech should be able to score at will and offer a lot more resistance on D than Wake did.  NC State is 1-8 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 over the last 3 years.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.    The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Vanderbilt/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +30.5

The Key: Texas A&M is getting too much love early in the season ranked as a Top 10 team off an 8-5 season.  Jimbo Fisher is doing a good job recruiting but hasn’t put it together.  No question the Aggies will be good this year, but not 30.5 points better than Vanderbilt, which returns all 11 starters on defense and should have their best stop unit of the Derek Mason era.  The Aggies didn’t beat a single SEC team by more than 24 points last year.  Vanderbilt is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games with a total between 45.5 and 49 points.  Such a low total definitely favors the +30.5 underdog.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* FSU/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami -11

The Key: Miami finally has its QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes look the part thus far.  They beat UAB 31-14 in their opener, and that’s a UAB team that just beat South Alabama 42-10 on Thursday.  That’s a South Alabama team that upset Southern Miss and also nearly upset Tulane.  Then Miami beat Louisville 47-34 last week with 3 scoring plays of 47 or more yards.  This is a very explosive offense with King, and the defense has plenty of studs to shut teams down.  FSU was thoroughly outplayed in its opener, a 13-16 home loss to Georgia Tech as 13-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets outgained them by 131 yards.  Now FSU will be without its new head coach in Mike Norvell due to Covid-19.  Miami has won three straight over FSU, including a 27-10 road win last year.  The Hurricanes are even better this season with King.  Take Miami.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

6* Mississippi State/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +17

The Key: LSU lost a record 14 players to the NFL.  You can make that 15 now with receiver Ja’Marr Chase and his 1,780 yards and 20 TD from last season deciding to sit out and get ready for the NFL.  I just can’t see LSU being on their game in the opener with all that they have lost.  I know the situation isn’t great for Mississippi State either with a new head coach in Mike Leach, but at least their an experienced team with 11 returning starters and plenty of senior leadership with 13 projected starters being seniors.  I love the addition of Stanford transfer KJ Kostello at QB to run Leach’s Air Raid system.  This number just feels a bit too wide with all that LSU lost.  Take Mississippi State.

6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7

The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game.  And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won.  I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night.  UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team.  UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog.  UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts.  Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted.  South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take South Alabama.

6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1

The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season.  The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons.  But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL.  So last year was a rebuilding season.  Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back.  Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year.  They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense.  They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver.  NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason.  The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday.  The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take NC State.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5

The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week.  Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC.  Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread.  And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period.  Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016.  They only won that game by 15 points.  The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.  Take Syracuse.

6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7

The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs.  I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch.  Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back.  Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country.  Kansas got in 0 spring practices.  Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter.  Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with.  The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D.  They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign.  This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet.  Take Coastal Carolina.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11

The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it.  They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen.  They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury.  They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth.  I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers.  Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed.  There will be some regression on that side of the ball.  Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year.  They will shut down this Louisiana offense.  The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall.  They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here.  The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams.  Take Iowa State.

6* MTSU/Army NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army -3.5

The Key: Army went 11-2 in 2018 but plummeted to 5-8 in 2019.  They weren’t nearly as bad as their record last year as they still outscored their opponents 28.3 to 23.0 on the season and outgained them 379 to 342 on average.  They simply had bad luck in close games as they lost 6 games by single-digits.  The Black Knights have 12 starters back this year which is more than they had each of the last 2 seasons.  I especially like the defense with 7 starters back from a unit that gave up 23 PPG.  The offense should be fine with Jabari Lewis at QB.  He actually averaged 6.4 YPC last year compared to 5.1 for starter Hopkins.  And he completed 16 of 20 passes for 80% completions, so he may even be better than Hopkins was.  Middle Tennessee went 4-8 last year thanks to an awful defense that gave up 29.9 PPG and 459 YPG.  They only have 5 starters back on D and will be terrible again.  They gave up 194 RYPG and 4.9 YPC last year, which is bad news going up against this triple-option of Army.  The Black Knights will be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this game.  Take Army.

6* Thursday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +15

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  Southern Miss should be a pretty good team with 14 starters back from a squad that went 7-6 last year.  But I don’t expect them to come close to winning this game by more than 2 touchdowns in the opener.  Take South Alabama.

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming. 

7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games.  But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force.  The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky.  I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year.  WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense.  I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs.  The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss.  Take Western Michigan. 

7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 

The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country.  Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year.  There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses.  Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case.  Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same.  Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games.  Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30.  Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Iowa State/Notre Dame Bowl *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Camping World Bowl between Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish hold opponents to 10.3 PPG and 77 YPG less than their season averages this year.  The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, holding foes to 5 PPG & 50 YPG less than their season averages.  Notre Dame actually runs the ball more than they throw it, attempting 36 rushes per game.  Iowa State runs it more than most Big 12 teams with 32 attempts per game.  The UNDER is 21-10-2 in Iowa State’s last 33 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Iowa State’s last 7 bowl games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Notre Dame’s last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 13-2 in Iowa State’s last 15 games on turf.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Iowa State’s last 9 games after a game where they committed zero turnovers.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Memphis/Penn State Bowl *CA$H COW* on Penn State -7 

The Key: The Memphis Tigers had a great year in the AAC.  But this is a big step up in class against Penn State, which will be the best opponent they have faced yet this year.  And Memphis just lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Penn State’s defense gives up only 14.1 PPG and will have an answer for Memphis’ offense.  It will be men amongst boys with their defensive line up against Memphis’ offensive line.  Take Penn State. 

6* USC/Iowa Bowl *CA$H COW* on USC +2.5 

The Key: I’ll side with USC’s athletes and explosive offense over Iowa’s physicality and poor offense in the Holiday Bowl.  USC is loaded at receiver, and senior WR Michael Pittman will play in this game.  Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is completing 72% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions.  Slovis threw for over 400 yards in each of his final 3 games to close out the season with 12 touchdowns and only 1 pick.  He faced 2 great defenses too in ASU and Cal.  Iowa hasn’t faced an offense as good as USC all season.  And I don’t think the Hawkeyes can keep up if they get behind.  Iowa is averaging just 19 PPG in their final 8 games this year.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 Holiday Bowls.  Clay Helton has retained his job and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell will stay, giving USC some continuity and some motivation to build for next year.  Helton is 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more yards last game as the coach of USC.  Take USC. 

7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 

The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State.  The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here.  Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams.  Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule.  Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury.  Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year.  Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory.  Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread.  Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan.  The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games.  I’d argue EMU has the better offense.  The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller.  The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog.  Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* BYU/Hawaii Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -2 

The Key: BYU played a tougher schedule than Hawaii and I trust them more to win this game from what I’ve seen from both teams.  BYU went 2-2 against Top 30 teams with wins over USC and Boise State, while Hawaii went 0-3 against Top 30 teams.  BYU also beat Tennessee on the road and thumped Utah State 42-14 on the road.  That’s a Utah State team that is probably just as good as Hawaii in the Mountain West.  Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss as the coach of Hawaii.  Take BYU. 

6* UAB/Appalachian State Bowl *BAILOUT* on Appalachian State -17 

The Key: Appalachian State went 12-1 this season and lost their head coach for a 2nd straight year.  Last year they went on to beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 after losing head coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville.  And now they will crush this UAB team.  UAB was blasted 6-49 by FAU in the C-USA title game.  They were also blasted by Tennessee and Southern Miss earlier this year.  Their only wins came against bad teams as they played the 138th-ranked schedule in the country.  App State is outscoring opponents by 19.2 PPG on the year, so they have no problem winning by margin.  Sun Belt teams are 11-3 ATS in the New Orleans Bowl since 2005.  Take Appalachian State. 

7* Kent State/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Kent State +7 

The Key: Teams that had 3 or fewer wins the previous season and made a bowl game have gone 16-2 ATS in their bowl games over the last 3 years.  Kent State is a qualifier.  The Golden Flashes overcame the odds and pulled out 3 straight upsets to close the season to get to 6-6.  They obviously want to be here.  I don’t think the same can be said for Utah State, which won 11 games last year and dropped to 7 wins this year.  6-6 teams in general have gone 60% ATS since 2000 in bowls and 6-6 teams off a win as an underdog have gone 70% ATS since 2000.  Take Kent State. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +14 

The Key: This is a rematch from an earlier meeting this season.  Hawaii lost 37-59 at Boise State.  But that game was much closer than the final score as Hawaii was only outgained by 80 yards.  The Warriors gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 4-1 and losing three fumbles.  That’s very unlikely to happen again.  The Warriors have been lacking respect most the season and can cap off a 10-win season here with a victory.  They will give Boise State everything they can handle.  And fortunately for Hawaii, the weather is expected to be perfect in Boise with temps close to 50 and no precipitation.  Bets on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are revenging a loss with 4-plus more total starters and an experienced QB returning against a team with a new QB are 41-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on LA-Lafayette/App State UNDER 58 

The Key: Lafayette and Appalachian State are in rare air here.  They will meet for the 4th time in 2 seasons after meeting in the regular season and the conference title game last year.  They also met in the regular season and will meet in the conference title game this year.  They have combined for just 44, 49 and 24 points in the previous 3 meetings, including that 24-point effort in their first meeting this year.  That’s an average of only 39 combined points per game.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER in this 4th matchup because of the familiarity of these two teams.  Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games against teams that put up 31 or more points per game.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +2.5 

The Key: Fresno State won the Mountain West last year but lost almost everyone from that team and have had a disappointing 4-7 season.  Now they won’t be going to a bowl and look like they may have quit because they aren’t playing for anything.  They have lost 3 straight coming in.  Their only 4 wins this year came against Sacramento State by 14, New Mexico State by 13, UNLV and Hawaii by 3.  They have beaten some bad teams outside of Hawaii.  San Jose State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have 5 losses by 10 points or less including losses to bowl teams in Nevada by 3, SDSU by 10, Boise by 10 and Hawaii by 2.  They have proven they can play with almost anyone in the conference.  They will want to go out a winner on Senior Night here and cap off a nice season.  San Jose State is 8-1 ATS against good offensive teams averaging 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 years.  Fresno is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games off a home loss.  Take San Jose State. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -9 

The Key: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should be more than 9-point home favorites over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders today.  WKU is coming off two straight impressive upsets with a 28-10 win at Southern Miss and a 45-19 win at Arkansas.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in conference play this year with their only losses coming to FAU by 11 and Marshall by 3, two of the best teams in the conference.  Middle Tennessee is 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 19.2 PPG.  The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.  The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Take Western Kentucky. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

6* Texas A&M/Georgia SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +13 

The Key: Georgia feels like it cleared its final hurdle last week with a huge 21-14 win at Auburn that clinched the SEC East.  And now I think they won’t be giving Texas A&M the attention they deserve this week.  Texas A&M is more than capable of coming into Georgia and giving the Bulldogs a game.  The Aggies are the fresher team after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  They have been blowing out teams in the 2nd half of the season with a 19-point win over Mississippi State, a 31-point win over UTSA and a 24-point win over South Carolina in their last 3 games coming in.  Georgia is coming off that physical game at Auburn and there’s no question the Aggies will be the fresher team.  Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards as the coach of Texas A&M.  Fisher is 10-2 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 285 yards per game or fewer in all games as a coach.  Georgia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games off 3 or more consecutive ATS wins.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +40.5 

The Key: BYU clinched a bowl last week with a 42-10 win over Idaho State as 33.5-point favorites.  They had a chance to punch it in from the 1-yard line and took a knee.  And I think they will show similar mercy to 1-10 UMass this week.  This is the final game of the season for UMass, so we should be getting their best effort.  They actually played Northwestern a lot tougher than the 6-45 final showed last week.  They were only outgained by 100 yards by the Wildcats and managed 310 total yards.  Look for BYU to run, run and run some more in the 2nd half to try and get this game over with.  It will favor UMass staying within the number.  Take UMass. 

6* Toledo/Buffalo MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The OVER is 4-0 in Toledo’s last 4 games with combined scores of 66, 71, 68 and 59 points.  I think this total of 54 has been set too low.  The OVER is 3-0 in Buffalo’s last 3 games with combined scores of 63, 57 and 57 points.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Bulls last 8 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER. 

6* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55 

The Key: Bowling Green has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.8 PPG and just gave up 44 points last week to a mediocre Miami Ohio offense.  Ohio has a good offense that averages 31.8 PPG in MAC play and will hang a big number on them as well.  But I look for Bowling Green’s offense to have much better success against Ohio’s soft defense than they did against Miami Ohio last week.  Ohio allows 29.7 PPG and 432.6 YPG on the year.  Ohio is 7-0 OVER against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games off a loss.  Take the OVER.