7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Oregon/Iowa State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58.5

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and certainly one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12.  They have held their last 4 opponents to an average of just 13.3 PPG which is extremely impressive when you consider 2 of those teams were Oklahoma and Texas.  Now they will shut down an Oregon offense that was just held to 243 total yards by a bad USC defense.  They were also held to 17 points by Cal the week before.  I think Oregon's defense is good enough to limit Iowa State here as well.  The Ducks have held 3 of their 6 opponents this season to 24 points or fewer.  The UNDER is 9-0-1 in Iowa State's last 10 neutral site games, including 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  The UNDER is 36-14-2 in Cyclones last 52 games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Cyclones last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Kentucky/NC State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: We'll side with the SEC over the ACC in this bowl game.  It has been a bad look for the ACC so far with Miami losing to Oklahoma State and Wake Forest losing to Wisconsin.  And we know that Kentucky played a much tougher schedule in the SEC than NC State did in the ACC.  The Wildcats only went 4-6, but the 6 losses came to teams that were .500 or better with the exception of Ole Miss, who was 4-5 and gave Alabama all they could handle.  And 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the SEC in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.  NC State is a team the Wildcats can handle.  NC State is a fraudulent 8-3.  They only beat one Power 5 team with a winning record, which was 6-5 Pittsburgh.  They struggled winning their final 3 games over the season over Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech as all 3 games were decided by 10 points or fewer.  Kentucky's strength of schedule was 21st while NC State's was 65th.  The Wildcats are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 bowl games under Mark Stoops with 2 upset victories over Penn State and VA Tech as well as a 1-point loss to Northwestern as a 7-point dog.  This is a senior-led team that will want to post their 3rd straight bowl win and go out as one of the most accomplished classes in program history.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against good rushing teams that average 4.75 YPC or more.  The Wildcats will have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball with a big talent advantage in the trenches.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a conference home win.  Take Kentucky.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

6* Ole Miss/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -2.5

The Key: LSU is coming off a shocking 37-34 win over Florida as more than 3-touchdown underdog.  The Gators were clearly looking ahead to their SEC Championship Game against Alabama this week.  And that win has LSU getting too much respect from the books this week.  Ole Miss is in the better situation.  The Rebels haven't played in 3 weeks and will be fresh.  They have won 3 in a row coming in and also gave Alabama their stiffest test of the season to flash their potential.  LSU just beat Florida and won't care nearly as much about beating Ole Miss this week because of it.  The situation favors the Rebels.  The Tigers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a road dog.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +6

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have saved their best football for last.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while outscoring their last 5 opponents by a total of 121 points and by an average of 24.2 PPG.  That's why they are getting so much hype in the college football playoff rankings, and deservedly so.  But now they are getting disrespected once again as 6-point dogs to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They upset Oklahoma as 7.5-point home dogs, 37-30 in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Oklahoma with an average cover of 16 PPG.  They haven't lost any of the last 5 matchups by more than 10 points, so Matt Campbell clearly has this Oklahoma team figured out.  And it's a Sooners team coming off one of their worst performances of the season.  They managed just 269 total yards in a 27-14 win over Baylor as a 23-point favorite.  They were actually outgained by the awful Bears in that contest.  Iowa State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 11-1 ATS under Campbell against good passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Sooners are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  Take Iowa State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

6* Virginia/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia +3.5

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly trying to make the most of this season.  They have won 4 straight and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  A win here Saturday over rival Virginia Tech would assure that they finish the season with a winning record.  They have wins over UNC, Louisville and Boston College during this stretch and only a 5-point loss at Miami.  Virginia Tech sits at 4-6 and is going the other direction.  The Hokies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They are coming off two straight blowout losses to Pitt by 33 and Clemson by 35.  They haven’t shown much fight in either game and I don’t see them showing up today, either.  The Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team that wins 51% to 60% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 11-1-2 ATS int heir last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their last game.  Take Virginia.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

6* Houston/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Houston Cougars have not played a game in a month and will be rusty here.  They should not be 5.5-point road favorites over the Memphis Tigers.  It has been a down season for Memphis, but they are still 6-3 this year and want to finish the season strong.  Houston is 3-3 with losses to the three best teams they’ve faced all by 17 points or more.  Their 3 wins have come against USF, Navy and Tulane.  Memphis is 4-0 SU in its last 4 matchups with Houston and hasn’t lost to the Cougars by more than 4 points in any of the last 6 matchups.  The Tigers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against good offensive teams that score 31 PPG or more.  Dana Holgorsen is 6-18 ATS as a head coach coming off a bye week.  The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  Take Memphis.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

6* SJSU/Hawaii Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State -1.5

The Key: Brent Brennan deserves some love for what he is doing with this San Jose State program.  He is in his 4th season here.  After going 5-7 last year with 3 losses by 3 points or less, the Spartans came out motivated in 2020 to do big things and make a bowl.  They have opened 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS this season.  They beat two very good teams by double-digits with their 17-6 win over Air Force and their 28-17 road win at San Jose State.  Their defense is balling, yielding just 15.3 PPG and 349.3 YPG this year.  Hawaii is just a mediocre team in the Mountain West after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.  Their defense is not good, yielding 29.7 PPG this year.  And that is going to be the difference in this game is SJSU will get key stops while Hawaii will not.  The Spartans have had the last 2 weeks off and will be ready to go Saturday night.  The Warriors are coming off 3 straight huge games against SDSU, Boise and Nevada the last 3 weeks and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  I have to think they are starting to get tired after that gauntlet.  The Spartans want revenge from 4 straight losses in this series, including losses by 2 and 3 points the last 2 years.  They lost in OT 2 years ago and by just 2 points last year.  The Spartans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as road favorites.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Hawaii.  Take San Jose State.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

6* West Virginia/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on UNDER 49.5

The Key: The two best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Saturday when Iowa State hosts West Virginia.  The Mountaineers give up just 17.8 points and 274.0 yards per game this season and have what it takes to slow down the Cyclones.  Iowa State yields just 23.0 PPG and 346.6 YPG this year and has played a gauntlet of a schedule, making their numbers even more impressive.  WVU has yet to face Oklahoma.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Iowa State has limited WVU to fewer than 200 yards of total offense in the past two meetings in this series.  And I think this WVU defense is the best unit that the Cyclones have probably ever faced as they allow just 112 RYPG and 162 PYPG.  Iowa State is 6-0 UNDER in its last 6 games off 3 straight wins.  The Cyclones are 6-0 UNDER in their last 6 games after committing zero turnovers in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Mountaineers last 8 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Cyclones last 28 against. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 21-4-2 in Cyclones last 27 games off a win.  Take the UNDER.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* Nevada/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -7

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 4 times already this season and am 4-0 with them.  They delivered against San Diego State last week, and they’ll deliver again this week against Hawaii.  They’ll be hungry to avenge a fluky 54-3 upset loss to Hawaii last year.  And these teams have already played the same 3 teams this year that shows Nevada is by far the superior team.  Nevada is 3-0 against Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State and has outscored them by a total of 15 points.  Hawaii is 1-2 against those same 3 teams and has been outscored by 42 points total.  Hawaii hasn’t had much of a home-field advantage at all in going 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.  Take Nevada.

6* LSU/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -14

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies have a legit shot to make the 4-team playoff if they win out.  They are 5-1 this year with their only loss on the road to Alabama.  They have a win over Florida, a fellow playoff contender.  And they are going to need some style points the rest the way.  That’s why I’m not worried about laying 14 points here with the Aggies Saturday against LSU.  The Aggies have had the last 2 weeks off so they’ll be fresh and ready.  LSU played last week and was fortunate to beat Arkansas 27-24.  They ran 91 plays for only 419 yards against Arkansas, an average of just 4.6 YPP.  Arkansas ran just 53 plays for 443 yards against LSU, an average of 8.4 YPP.  The Tigers are now giving up 472.7 YPG and 7.3 YPP defensively this year.  Texas A&M only allows 338.2 YPG and 5.6 YPP defensively.  That’s where the difference lies between these two teams.  Plus Texas A&M has the better offense at 6.7 YPP compared to 5.9 YPP for LSU.  And Texas A&M has played the tougher schedule.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponents by 150 or more yards over the last 3 years.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Louisville/Boston College OVER 54.5

The Key: This total is too low Saturday for 2 good passing offenses like Louisville and Boston College.  Boston College has a great freshman QB in Jurkovec who is completing 60% for 2,355 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this year.  The Eagles are averaging 262 PYPG.  Cunningham is completing 64% for 2,126 yards with 16 TD and 11 INT this year.  The Cardinals average 243 PYPG and 8.4 YPA.  But they also have a great rushing attack to compliment it with 194 RPYG and 5.2 YPA.  Both defenses are sub par as Louisville yields 26.4 PPG and BC gives up 26.9 PPG.  Last year these teams played in an absolute shootout with Louisville winning 41-39 for 80 combined points.  And that has been the norm in this series.  Each of the last 4 matchups have seen 58 or more combined points and 6 of the last 7 have seen 57 or more.  The OVER is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off a home win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off an ATS win.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

6* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Maryland +12

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins bounced back from their ugly loss to Northwestern with two shocking upsets of Minnesota as a 17.5-point underdog and Penn State as a 27.5-point underdog.  Tualia Tagovailoa, the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Too Tagovailoa, has lived up to the hype the past 2 games.  He has thrown for a combined 676 yards with 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in those 2 victories.  And this offense should do what it wants against an Indiana defense that gave up 42 points and 607 yards to Ohio State last week.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hoosiers after playing Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS this season and oddsmakers are giving them too much respect this week now as a double-digit favorite over a live underdog like Maryland.  Each of the last 4 matchups between these teams were decided by 6 points or fewer and I could easily see that happening for a 5th straight year here.  Take Maryland.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

6* Liberty/NC State Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +5.5

The Key: The Liberty Flames are a legit 7-0 team and Hugh Freeze might be the single most underrated head coach in the country.  Freeze is now 60-35 ATS as a head coach taking back to his time at Ole Miss after opening up 6-1 ATS this season.  The Flames are outgaining opponents by nearly 200 YPG this year and just upset Virginia Tech in ACC play a few weeks back.  And now they step down in competition here against NC State and one again find themselves as dogs when they should be favorites.  Liberty QB Malik Willis is one of the best QB’s in the country.  He is completing 67.8% with 15 TD’s and only 1 INT along with 700 rushing yards, 9 TD and 7.1 YPR on the ground.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that averages 255 RYPG and 255 PYPG.  That’s bad news for an NC State defense that yields 33.9 PPG, 456.5 YPG and 178 RYPG.  Dave Doeren is 0-8 ATS against good rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  NC State is 0-6 ATS off a conference home win over the last 3 years.  Take Liberty.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Rice +2

The Key: Both Rice and North Texas have had COVID problems this year which has seen Rice play just 2 games and North Texas play just 3 games.  But we’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that Rice is the better team.  And that was evident with their common opponent in Southern Miss.  Rice crushed Southern Miss 30-6 on the road while North Texas lost to that same team 31-41 at home.  Not to mention North Texas also lost 21-49 at home to a bad Charlotte team.  It’s an experienced Rice team that returned 17 starters this year.  And it’s one that should not be a dog to a North Texas team that they also upset last year 20-14 at home.  They had 19 first downs compared to just 10 first downs for North Texas in that game.  Rice is a running team that will be able to run the ball at will against a North Texas defense that is yielding 243 RYPG and 5.6 YPC.  And North Texas hasn’t played a game since October 17th so it will have been off for more than a month coming into this game.  That can’t be a good thing.  North Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a win.  Rice is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Take Rice.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

6* Tulane/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -5.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU in a bad spot, but now they came back from their bye week and beat SMU 28-24 last week.  And that bye week is key as the Golden Hurricane will now be playing just their 2nd game in 3 weeks so they should be the fresher team.  The Tulane Green Wave will be playing 7 straight weeks here and are on a short week to boot.  Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by nearly 100 yards combined while Tulane was outgained by over 500 yards by SMU and UFC combined.  The Golden Hurricane are clearly the better team here and it will show on the scoreboard Thursday night.  Take Tulsa.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

6* SMU/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -2.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU last time out, but now they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for SMU coming off a bye week.  SMU has to be a tired team right now as they have played 8 games compared to just 4 for Tulsa.  And now the Mustangs will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  After getting blown out 13-42 by Cincinnati, they were able to get by 2 bad teams in Temple and Navy the last 2 weeks.  But now this is a big step up in class and likely the 2nd-best team they’ve played all season here in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane want revenge rom a 37-43 (OT) loss to SMU last year as 12-point dogs.  They blew a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  It’s revenge time here Saturday.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Tulsa.

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5

The Key: Northwestern is starting to get too much love after starting the season 3-0.  Their last 2 wins were fortunate as they were outgained by 20 yards by Iowa in their 21-20 win and outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska in their 21-13 win.  Now they will be playing for a 4th straight week here.  Purdue is rested and ready off a bye week and off 2 straight wins over Iowa and Illinois.  The Boilermakers should not be catching 3.5 points at home here in what I have as a pretty evenly matched game, so the price is right to back the home team.  Purdue is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  The Wildcats are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Take Purdue.

6* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -1.5

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are hungry for a win after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and TCU after beating a very good West Virginia team at home.  They also took Texas to overtime at home earlier this year after blowing a 15-point lead.  This team has a nice home-field advantage and always has.  Baylor is coming off 4 straight losses after blowing a 21-7 lead to Iowa State last week.  The Bears are an inexperienced team that returned only 9 starters this year and lost a few more due to injury.  Now the Bears will be on the road for the 4th time in 5 games.  And the Bears have had zero success in Lubbock over the years.  Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 SU in its last 9 home matchups with Baylor.  And we’re getting the Red Raiders at a great price here as only 1.5-point favorites in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  Take Texas Tech.

6* Saturday Sun Belt *Annihilator* on South Alabama +16

The Key: Louisiana is 6-1 SU this season but just 2-5 ATS.  They haven’t been able to put teams away as each of their last 5 wins have come by 10 points or fewer against the likes of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UAB, Texas State and Arkansas State.  If those teams can play with them, South Alabama certainly can as well.  The Jaguars only lost by 17 to the best team in the Sun Belt last week in Coastal Carolina.  And this has been a very closely-contested series over the years.  Each of the last 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  South Alabama only lost by 10 as 28-point dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point dogs the year prior.  And this is an experienced Jaguars team that returned 15 starters this year and has the confidence that they can hang with Louisiana.  The Jaguars are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

6* Washington State/Oregon State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon State -1.5

The Key: Oregon State is a program on the rise.  After going just 2-10 in Jonathan Smith’s first year in 2018, the Beavers went 5-7 last year.  They won 4 Pac-12 games and had 3 losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  One of those close losses came to Washington State by a final of 53-54 that cost them a trip to a bowl game.  It’s now revenge time for the Beavers.  Smith is in his 3rd season with the program with 14 returning starters and his best team yet.  Washington State lost Mike Leach to Mississippi State and is in rebuilding mode.  They lose QB Anthony Gordon who had 5,579 yards and 48 TD last year.  They also lose their top 3 receivers, who combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 26 TD.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take Oregon State.

6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have 16 starters back this year and are contenders in the Pac-12.  They have QB Davis Mills who gained valuable experience last year replacing an injured KJ Costello and completed nearly 66% of his passes on the season.  Oregon has just 9 returning starters and is a team on decline after losing QB Justin Herbert as an early first-round draft pick.  They have to replace all 5 starters on the offensive line and their quarterback.  I like to fade teams like this early in the season.  Take Stanford.

6* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +13.5

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off a massive win over Memphis last week.  The Bearcats had that game circled after losing to Memphis twice last season, including in the AAC Championship Game.  This is now a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  And this line is inflated because they hammered Memphis 49-10 and kept pouring it on.  They go from being underdogs to SMU to 6.5-point favorites over Memphis to now nearly 2-touchdown favorites against Houston.  And Houston may be better than both SMU and Memphis.  The Cougars played BYU very tough earlier this season and were leading in the 4th quarter.  They eventually lost to BYU, which is now 7-0 on the season.  They also lost to UCF, another team among the elite in the country.  And that 21-44 loss last week has this number inflated as well.  The Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Houston.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

6* WVU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +6.5

The Key: West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  You look at their numbers and they are better than their 4-2 record.  That showed up last week as they handed Kansas State their first conference loss of the season.  They dominated for 4 quarters and rolled to a 37-10 victory.  West Virginia is now outgaining its opponents by 209 YPG on the season with 465 YPG on offense and giving up only 256 YPG on defense.  Texas is only outgaining its opponents by 42 YPG.  The Longhorns were fortunate to beat Oklahoma State in overtime last week as they won the turnover battle 4-0 and were outgained by 243 yards.  West Virginia actually outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their earlier meeting but lost.  Bets on road teams who allowed 225 or fewer yards in their previous game against an opponent that was outgained by 225 or more yards in their previous game are 34-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

6* Utah State/Nevada Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Nevada -15.5

The Key: The Nevada Wolf Pack are a real contender in the Mountain West this year.  They returned 17 starters, an elite offense, and a monster defensive line that is exactly what Jay Norvell has wanted since he arrived here.  The offense has put up 37 PPG thus far and the defense has limited the run, holding two good running teams in Wyoming and UNLV to 127 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Utah State is in rebuilding mode after losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL and bringing back 13 starters this year.  That’s been evident as the Aggies have looked atrocious in their first two games.  They lost 13-42 to Boise State as 17-point dogs and 7-38 to San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs.  Their offense is averaging just 10 PPG and 209 YPG in the absence of Love, the first-round pick of the Green Bay Packers.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Nevada.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

6* Missouri/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on Florida -12

The Key: The Florida Gators have had 3 weeks to get over their Covid-19 issues and get ready to face Missouri.  They are coming off their first loss of the season, a tough 38-41 road loss to a very good Texas A&M team.  So they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to give a big effort for 4 quarters.  That should be enough to cover this 12-point spread against a Missouri team that is starting to get too much respect from the books.  After losing by 19 to Alabama and by 23 to Tennessee, Missouri has now pulled off 2 straight upset wins over LSU 45-41 on the road and Kentucky 20-10 at home.  But last week’s win over Kentucky comes with an asterisk.  The Wildcats lost starting QB Terry Wilson early in that game and could not get their offense going without him.  Florida will get its offense going against Missouri.  The Gators average 42.3 PPG and 464 YPG this year and have one of the best offenses in the country.  They can name their score against this Missouri defense that gave up 38 to Alabama, 35 to Tennessee and 41 to LSU.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games dating back further.  The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Florida.

6* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: Oklahoma State is 4-0 but it has come against a soft schedule with their only road game thus far at Kansas.  Texas has played the much tougher schedule and is close to being 5-0 with a triple-OT loss to Oklahoma and a tough 31-33 loss to TCU in which they deserved to win.  If the Longhorns want any chance of winning the Big 12, this is a must-win now.  I think they get the job done with the better QB in Sam Ehlinger over Spencer Sanders.  Ehlinger has 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this year and has rushed for 293 yards and 7 scores.  He simply wills his team to wins.  Sanders has 1 TD and 2 INT and has only rushed for 80 yards and a score on 20 attempts.  He’s just a QB that I refuse to trust with my money.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that’s off 3 straight conference wins are 70-32 ATS since 1992.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 matchups.  Take Texas.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

6* UCF/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: The Houston Cougars are loaded this season with 19 returning starters in the 2nd year under Dana Holgorsen.  Their lone loss came to a very good BYU team in which they led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  They were only outgained by 40 yards by the Cougars.  They crushed Tulane 49-31 and Navy 37-21 in their other 2 games.  Clearly UCF has taken a step back this season with upset losses already to both Tulsa and Memphis.  And I think you can add another loss here against Houston.  The Knights are just too bad defensively to be trusted as they yield 33.4 PPG and 482.2 YPG this year.  UCF is 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 70 points or more were scored over the last 2 years.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 with a good offense that averages 6.1 YPPG or more after allowing 475 YPG or more in their last 3 games are 24-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Georgia State +3

The Key: Coastal Carolina’s unbeaten season comes to an end this week.  Georgia State is the better team, especially now that the Chanticleers are expected to be without starting QB Grant McCall.  He has 11 touchdown passes and only 1 interception this season and has also rushed for 3 touchdowns.  He is irreplaceable for a team like Coastal Carolina.  Georgia State has an elite offense that averages 237 rushing yards and 229 passing yards this season behind the great play of freshman QB Cornelius Brown.  It’s a good matchup for the Panthers too as they give up just 97 RYPG and 3.2 YPC this year.  They have what it takes defensively to stop Coastal Carolina’s rushing attack, which averages 188 RYPG on 44 attempts per game.  Take Georgia State.

6* Hawaii/Wyoming Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Wyoming PK

The Key: I went against Wyoming last week as they were favored on the road against a Nevada team that I think has a legit shot to win the Mountain West this year.  But Wyoming made it interesting and never gave up, eventually losing 34-37.  But now I’m siding with Wyoming this week as they play their first home game against a Hawaii team that I believe to be overrated.  Hawaii is under a first-year head coach in Todd Graham.  They did beat a Fresno State team that’s in transition last week also with a new head coach.  But they were gifted that win with 4 turnovers.  Wyoming isn’t the type of team that gives away anything easy.  And they have a great home-field advantage in Laramie as they went 6-0 at home last year.  The weather will also be working in their favor as temps will be in the 30s Friday night with wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH.  They play great defense under Craig Bohl in his 7th season and have allowed 22 PPG or fewer each of the last 3 years, so their performance against a good Nevada offense last week was an aberration.  Take Wyoming.

6* South Alabama/Georgia Southern Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +4

The Key: South Alabama has a common opponent with Georgia Southern that makes be believe the Jaguars are the better team here.  South Alabama beat Louisiana Monroe 38-14 and Georgia Southern only beat that same team 35-30.  It’s also a good matchup for South Alabama’s defense as Georgia Southern rushes for 249 YPG but only passes for 114 YPG. South Alabama only gives up 135 RYPG and 3.9 YPC on the ground this season.  Their weakness defensively has been against the pass, but that won’t be an issue here.  And South Alabama clearly has the better offense averaging 412 YPG compared to 363 YPG for Georgia Southern.  And it’s also worth noting South Alabama has faced the much more difficult schedule.  Bets on road dogs who covered 4 of their last 5 games that win between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-10 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards last game.  Take South Alabama.

6* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *BAILOUT* on SMU -2.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 5-0 this season and a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference.  Sonny Dykes is doing great things here, and the Mustangs have the numbers to back up their 5-0 record.  They have an explosive offense that averages 42.6 PPG and 563.2 YPG and a solid defense that yields 25.4 PPG.  Cincinnati is 3-0 but against a much easier schedule than SMU has faced.  Their 3 wins all came at home over Austin Peay, Army and South Florida.  They only managed 396 YPG and gave up 306.7 YPG against those 3 poor teams.  Now they will be going on the road for the first time this year.  I don’t think they have the firepower offensively to match SMU in this one.  Bets on home favorites who outgain their opponents by 100 YPG or more against a good team outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG, after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  SMU was much more dominant than the final score against Tulane last week as they needed OT despite outgaining the Green Wave by 194 yards.  They remain underrated despite being 5-0.  Take SMU.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Indiana +6.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers finished with a winning record in the Big Ten and overall for the first since since 1993 last year.  Head coach Tom Allen has this team on the rise and this is his best team yet as he enters his 4th season in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers return 17 starters and want revenge from narrow losses to Penn State each of the last 2 seasons. They lost 28-33 to Penn State as 14-point home dogs in 2018 and outgained the Nittany Lions 554 to 417 in that game.  Last year they lost 27-34 despite once again having the 462 to 371 yardage edge.  They really should have won both those games, and they have not forgotten.  Now they right another wrong in their opener and pull the upset here at home.  Take Indiana.

6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -11

The Key: Hugh Freeze is working his magic with this Liberty program.  The Flames are 4-0 this season and there has been nothing fraudulent about this start.  They just went on the road and beat Syracuse 38-21 handily as 3-point favorites to knock off a Power 5 team.  Their stats are so impressive.  They are gaining 484 YPG and giving up just 275 YPG on defense, outgaining foes by 209 YPG on the season.  Southern Miss has been hit hard by Covid-19.  They will now have their 3rd different head coach for Saturday.  They fired Jay Hopson after a season-opening loss to South Alabama.  Scotty Walden was named interim coach, but now he is out this week with Covid-19.  And that leaves Tim Billings will be in line to coach the team.  The Eagles are 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a terrible North Texas team.  They lost by 11 to South Alabama at home, by 1 to a bad LA Tech team that was missing several players due to Covid, and by 42 to a Tulane team that has shown they aren’t very good either.  Liberty will be the best team they have faced yet, and it’s really not even close.  They give up 40 PPG and 490.5 YPG on the season, so the Flames should be able to name their score and run away with this one.  Bets against any team that is outscored by 7 or more PPG, after 2 straight games where 70 or more points were scored are 50-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Oddsmakers haven’t caught on to how good this Flames team is just yet, so we’ll keep capitalizing.  Take Liberty.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +7

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have shown me enough against a brutal schedule to know they can compete with Oklahoma.  They are 1-2, but they only lost by 3 to Iowa Stat and by 7 to Kansas State, who are both 3-0 in Big 12 play.  They also upset Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Oklahoma needed triple-OT to beat Texas and also lost by 7 to Iowa State.  Oklahoma also lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorite.  The Sooners are way overvalued early in the season, and based on those results, these are pretty even teams.  TCU actually has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan, who is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA this year.  And TCU certainly has the better defense in giving up 366.7 YPG compared to 40 PPG and 415 YPG for Oklahoma in conference play.  And the Sooners have a laundry list of injuries right now, while the Horned Frogs are very healthy.  Gary Patterson is 14-4 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

6* Ark State/App State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State +13.5

The Key: Arkansas State has shown they can play with two of the better teams in the country.  They covered in a 13-point loss to Memphis and beat Kansas State outright as 15-point dogs.  They also beat a very good Georgia State team last week.  Their only poor performance came in their first game off a Covid break against Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers simply played keep away from them and held the ball for over 41 minutes. The Red Wolves are good enough to hang with Appalachian State, which lost 7-17 to Marshall and isn’t as good as they have been the past few years.  Their two wins came over two bad teams in Charlotte and Campbell, and they only beat Charlotte by 15.  Arkansas State is better than Charlotte and will hang here as they try to prove they are contenders in the Sun Belt.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Memphis +3.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled all offseason.  They have lost 13 straight to UCF and enough is enough.  Five of those losses have come by a TD or less and many have been recently.  UCF is ripe for the picking this year as evidenced by their 26-34 loss to Tulsa as 20.5-point favorites last time out.  They are missing several players to injury or personal reasons, and they are the most penalized team in the country.  The Tigers are 14-4 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent and are coming off a 3-point loss to a very good SMU team on the road.  The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home matchups with UCF.  Take Memphis.

6* Pitt/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Key: The Pitt Panthers could easily be 5-0 this year.  But they are coming off 2 straight crushing 1-point losses and want to rebound in a big way here if they want any chance to win the Coastal.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, who got a dose of reality latst week in losing 17-42 to Clemson.  They were outgained by 340 yards by the Tigers and held to just 210 total yards.  Pitt has an elite defense that only gives up 264 YPG and 4.2 YPP this year.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and their offense has been great through the air and will test this Miami defense.  This spread is way higher than it should be.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -3

The Key: There has been nothing fraudulent about Liberty’s 3-0 starts with wins over WKU, FIU and LA Monroe.  They are averaging 471 YPG on offense and giving up just 264 YPG on defense, outgaining opponents by 207 YPG.  Syracuse is 1-3 with some terrible stats to boot.  The Orange are averaging just 254 YPG on offense and yielding 476 YPG on defense, getting outgained by 222 YPG.  And Syracuse just lost starting QB Tommy Devito to a season-ending ankle injury late in the loss to Duke last week.  That’s a huge blow as they will now have to turn to Rex Culpepper at quarterback.  Liberty is favored for good reason here and should be a bigger favorite.  Take Liberty.

6* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +6

The Key: The price is right to back Kentucky in a game that I view as very evenly-matched, so getting 6 points is a nice value.  Kentucky really should be 3-0, but since they are 1-2 there’s value in the line.  They outgained Auburn by 60 yards in a loss.  They missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss that cost them the game.  And their true colors showed last week in a dominant 24-2 win over Mississippi State.  Tennessee was fortunate to beat South Carolina in the opener.  And they were exposed last week in a 21-44 loss to Georgia.  If they wanted to win the SEC East, they needed to win that game against the Bulldogs.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat and won’t be fully recovered in time to face this hungry Wildcats squad.  Kentucky is 10-2 ATS off a home win over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record.  The Vols are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Kentucky.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

6* Georgia State/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Georgia State +3.5

The Key: Georgia State returned 16 starters from the team that beat Arkansas State 52-38 last year.  The Panthers had 39 first downs and 722 total yards in that game while limiting Arkansas State to 421 total yards.  The Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime and crushed East Carolina 49-29.  And now the Panthers have nearly 2 weeks to get ready for this game with Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday against Central Arkansas after getting crushed by Coastal Carolina, 23-52.  So Arkansas State has just 4 days to prepare for Georgia State.  They are at a severe disadvantage here schedule-wise, especially since their team has been hit hard by Covid-19 in the past few weeks.  Take Georgia State.

6* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana -7

The Key: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 last year on the road.  If oddsmakers would have set this line before the season, Louisiana would be a minimum of a 14-point favorite and probably higher.  But we are getting Louisiana at -7 here despite the fact that Louisiana is 3-0 and has done what they are supposed to do.  They’ve done even more than that with their upset road win in the opener.  And they did not play well their last 2 games and still won, and part of that was due to a letdown and also Covid-19 problems.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are rested and back healthy now since they haven’t played since September 26th.  Coastal Carolina is also 3-0 but against a much softer schedule in Kansas, Campbell and Arkansas State.  This is a big step up for them and I don’t think they’re ready for it.  Louisiana should show out on this ESPN spotlight game tonight.  Take Louisiana.

6* Miami/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes finally have a QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The rest has fallen into place as the Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start this year.  They beat a pesky UAB team 31-14, had no trouble in beating a good Louisville team 47-34 on the road, and blasted Florida State 52-10 at home.  Now the Hurricanes have had 2 weeks to get ready for Clemson after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Clemson played Virginia last week in a 41-23 win, failing to cover as 28-point favorites.  And they weren’t very impressive at all as they only outgained Virginia by 49 yards.  This is easily Clemson’s toughest test yet after also playing lowly Wake Forest and The Citadel.  The Tigers always come close to getting upset every year in one game, and this appears to be the one.  King is completing 67% of his passes with 6 TD and 0 INT, while also rushing for 157 yards and a score.  He is the game changer the Hurricanes have been missing, and he’s the reason they have a chance to hang with Clemson Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* FSU/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Florida State +21

The Key: You won’t find the Florida State Seminoles at a better price than they are right now.  That’s because they are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS to start the year.  But this team still has a ton of talent, and should have more continuity now under first-year head coach Mike Norvell.  Notre Dame only beat an 0-4 Duke team 27-13 in the opener.  So if Duke can hang around, Florida State certainly can.  The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off 2 consecutive home wins.  The price is right to back the Seminoles.  Take Florida State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

6* Tulane/Houston NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Michael Pratt took over early in the 1st quarter for the terrible Keon Howard and promptly led Tulane to 66 points in a 66-24 victory over Southern Miss last time out.  It’s a big upgrade at the QB position with his dual-threat skills.  And Tulane should keep it rolling offensively against Houston this week.  The Cougars have an offensive genius as a head coach in Dana Holgorsen, and he is working with 10 returning starters on offense and a terrible defense.  There should be some offensive fireworks in this one.  These teams combined for 69 points last year and 65 points two years ago, so this one should have no problem topping the 59-point total.  The Green Wave are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games after scoring 20 points or more at halftime in 2 straight games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Texas Tech/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State -2

The Key: “We better put it behind us in a. Hurry or we’re going to not be ready on Saturday,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said. “What you did today is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do the next day.  Right now, we have to move on.  That’s been our mantra for a year-plus.  Stack great days and don’t worry about yesterday, worry about today.  Let’s win this dang day.”  I love the quotes coming from Klieman leading up to this game against Texas Tech.  And I think with the veteran leadership the Wildcats have, they can avoid the dreaded letdown off their incredible upset of Oklahoma as 28-point dogs last week.  I think getting humbled in their opener by Arkansas State, losing outright as 15-point dogs will make it easier to avoid that letdown.  Texas Tech blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes and lost in OT to Texas last week.  That’s harder to recover from.  And remember Texas Tech only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 as a 40.5-point favorite in their opener.  The fact of the matter is Kansas State is the better team in this matchup, and if they just show up with their ‘B Game’ they will win and cover.  The Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU loss.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Texas Tech.  Take Kansas State.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3

The Key: Arkansas State has been impressive against two tough opponents this year.  They only lost by 13 on the road to Memphis and upset Kansas State as 15-point road underdogs.  Then Kansas State went on to beat Oklahoma outright as a 28-point dog last week.  And keep in mind the Red Wolves didn’t have 10 starters for that game against K-State due to Covid-19.  Now they should be back to full strength this week and blast Coastal Carolina, which has played a much easier schedule in beating Kansas and Campbell thus far.  The Red Wolves have won all 3 matchups with Coastal Carolina over the last 3 years by an average of 21 PPG.  Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on West Virginia ML +115

The Key: Neal Brown is in his 2nd season at West Virginia.  They only had 7 starters back last year in his first season and still managed to win 5 games, including 3 Big 12 road games, which is no small feat.  But now Brown has 14 starters back this year and this should be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Baylor is the team rebuilding with just 9 starters back for new head coach Dave Aranda.  The Bears’ 47-14 win over Kansas last week was so misleading.  They only outgained Kansas by 24 yards and managed just 352 total yards.  But they got 2 special teams touchdowns.  West Virginia played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 13-27 final score would indicate last week as well.  The Mountaineers outgained the Cowboys by 11 yards and held them to just 342 total yards.  West Virginia only lost 14-17 at Baylor as 17.5-point dogs last year.  It’s revenge time as WVU looks to improve to 5-0 SU in home matchups with Baylor since joining the Big 12.  Take West Virginia on the Money Line.

6* South Carolina/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +17

The Key: This has been a very closely contested series between South Carolina and Florida through in the year.  Each of the last 7 matchups were decided by 13 points or fewer, so with this 17-point spread I like the price we are getting on the Gamecocks.  South Carolina only lost 27-31 to a very good Tennessee team last week.  Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but gave up 613 total yards in the process and only outgained the Rebels by 29 yards.  That’s an Ole Miss team in transition with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin.  The Gamecocks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

6* NC State/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -6.5

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back this year.  NC State went 4-8 lsat year and has 15 starters back.  But the defense is clearly atrocious after giving up 42 points to Wake Forest last week.  Virginia Tech should be able to score at will and offer a lot more resistance on D than Wake did.  NC State is 1-8 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 over the last 3 years.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.    The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Vanderbilt/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +30.5

The Key: Texas A&M is getting too much love early in the season ranked as a Top 10 team off an 8-5 season.  Jimbo Fisher is doing a good job recruiting but hasn’t put it together.  No question the Aggies will be good this year, but not 30.5 points better than Vanderbilt, which returns all 11 starters on defense and should have their best stop unit of the Derek Mason era.  The Aggies didn’t beat a single SEC team by more than 24 points last year.  Vanderbilt is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games with a total between 45.5 and 49 points.  Such a low total definitely favors the +30.5 underdog.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* FSU/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami -11

The Key: Miami finally has its QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes look the part thus far.  They beat UAB 31-14 in their opener, and that’s a UAB team that just beat South Alabama 42-10 on Thursday.  That’s a South Alabama team that upset Southern Miss and also nearly upset Tulane.  Then Miami beat Louisville 47-34 last week with 3 scoring plays of 47 or more yards.  This is a very explosive offense with King, and the defense has plenty of studs to shut teams down.  FSU was thoroughly outplayed in its opener, a 13-16 home loss to Georgia Tech as 13-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets outgained them by 131 yards.  Now FSU will be without its new head coach in Mike Norvell due to Covid-19.  Miami has won three straight over FSU, including a 27-10 road win last year.  The Hurricanes are even better this season with King.  Take Miami.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

6* Mississippi State/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +17

The Key: LSU lost a record 14 players to the NFL.  You can make that 15 now with receiver Ja’Marr Chase and his 1,780 yards and 20 TD from last season deciding to sit out and get ready for the NFL.  I just can’t see LSU being on their game in the opener with all that they have lost.  I know the situation isn’t great for Mississippi State either with a new head coach in Mike Leach, but at least their an experienced team with 11 returning starters and plenty of senior leadership with 13 projected starters being seniors.  I love the addition of Stanford transfer KJ Kostello at QB to run Leach’s Air Raid system.  This number just feels a bit too wide with all that LSU lost.  Take Mississippi State.

6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7

The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game.  And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won.  I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night.  UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team.  UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog.  UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts.  Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted.  South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take South Alabama.

6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1

The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season.  The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons.  But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL.  So last year was a rebuilding season.  Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back.  Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year.  They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense.  They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver.  NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason.  The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday.  The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take NC State.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5

The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week.  Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC.  Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread.  And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period.  Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016.  They only won that game by 15 points.  The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.  Take Syracuse.

6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7

The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs.  I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch.  Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back.  Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country.  Kansas got in 0 spring practices.  Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter.  Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with.  The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D.  They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign.  This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet.  Take Coastal Carolina.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11

The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it.  They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen.  They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury.  They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth.  I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers.  Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed.  There will be some regression on that side of the ball.  Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year.  They will shut down this Louisiana offense.  The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall.  They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here.  The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams.  Take Iowa State.

6* MTSU/Army NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army -3.5

The Key: Army went 11-2 in 2018 but plummeted to 5-8 in 2019.  They weren’t nearly as bad as their record last year as they still outscored their opponents 28.3 to 23.0 on the season and outgained them 379 to 342 on average.  They simply had bad luck in close games as they lost 6 games by single-digits.  The Black Knights have 12 starters back this year which is more than they had each of the last 2 seasons.  I especially like the defense with 7 starters back from a unit that gave up 23 PPG.  The offense should be fine with Jabari Lewis at QB.  He actually averaged 6.4 YPC last year compared to 5.1 for starter Hopkins.  And he completed 16 of 20 passes for 80% completions, so he may even be better than Hopkins was.  Middle Tennessee went 4-8 last year thanks to an awful defense that gave up 29.9 PPG and 459 YPG.  They only have 5 starters back on D and will be terrible again.  They gave up 194 RYPG and 4.9 YPC last year, which is bad news going up against this triple-option of Army.  The Black Knights will be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this game.  Take Army.

6* Thursday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +15

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  Southern Miss should be a pretty good team with 14 starters back from a squad that went 7-6 last year.  But I don’t expect them to come close to winning this game by more than 2 touchdowns in the opener.  Take South Alabama.