|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-12-20||Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 221||102-122||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies over 221 -109
Easy play on the OVER in Sunday's NBA matchup that has Memphis hosting the Warriors. The books are having a terrible time setting the total high enough in Grizzlies' games of late. The OVER is 12-3 in Memphis' last 15 games.
A big part of that is the Grizzlies' offense, which is absolutely on fire right now. Memphis is averaging 127.4 ppg in their last 5 and have scored 110 or more in 10 straight games. Not only is their offense lighting it up, but they are allowing a ton of points. Grizzlies have given up 112 or more in 5 straight.
OVER is 10-1 in Memphis' last 11 home games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER!
|01-12-20||Spurs v. Raptors -3||Top||105-104||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -3 -110
Love the value here with the Raptors laying a small number at home against the Spurs. While Toronto likely won't get back Siakam and Gasol until later this week, they will be welcoming back Powell to the mix.
Regardless of who has been in and out of the lineup, Raptors continue to play at a very high level, especially on the defensive end. Spurs simply can't be trusted on the road with how little defense they play. San Antonio just lost at Memphis and gave up 134 in the process. Spurs are now a mere 5-12 on the road this season, giving up 117 ppg.
San Antonio is also just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 after giving up 125 or more in their previous game, while Raptors are 16-7 ATS last 23 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Toronto!
|01-12-20||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -2.5||58-66||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Miami-FL -2½ -110
Really like the value here with the Hurricanes laying a small number at home against the Panthers. Perfect spot to buy low on Miami off back-to-back losses. While they were completely outclassed in a 33-point home loss to Duke, they were down just 5 with 5 minutes to play before losing 58-74 at Louisville last time out.
Either way this is the ideal bounce back spot and a great price against a Pitt team that is getting too much love for a road win against a bad UNC team. Prior to that upset of the Tar Heels, the Panthers had gone just 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games.
One thing Pitt really thrives on is forcing turnovers and that's a problem here, as Miami simply doesn't turn it over. Hurricanes have the 12th best turnover rate in the country. Last time out against Louisville they only turned it over 5 times.
Panthers are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 road games after playing two straight conference games, 2-9-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-14-1 ATS last 18 as a dog. Take Miami!
|01-11-20||Weber State +5.5 v. CS Sacramento||57-71||Loss||-110||23 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ODDSMAKER ERROR on Weber State +5½ -110
I like the value here with the Wildcats catching a decent number on the road against CS-Sacramento. I just think we are getting a great price on Weber State due to the fact that they have gone just 1-4 in their last 5 games, as this is a much more evenly matched game than the number suggest.
Sacramento State comes in at 9-4, but their only win against a team in the top 200 of the KenPom rankings is a mere 5-point win over No. 170 Pepperdine. Weber State has only played 3 teams outside the Top 200.
The other big thing is the Hornets just can't be trusted laying points with how bad they are on the offensive side of the ball. CS-Sacramento is averaging a mere 61.8 ppg which is really bad when you consider how easy the schedule has been.
Wildcats are 23-10 ATS last 33 after dropping 4 of their last 5, while the Hornets are 0-6 ATS last 6 at home after winning 2 of their last 3. Road team has also only failed to cover 4 times in the last 14 meetings between these two. Take Weber State!
|01-11-20||CS-Northridge -5.5 v. Cal Poly||56-74||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on CS-Northridge -5½ -110
Easy play here on CS-Northridge laying a short number on the road against Cal Poly. While the Matadors are just 6-11 overall, they come in having won 3 straight as the schedule has finally started to get easier (8 of their 11 losses have come against teams ranked 170 or better in KenPom. Cal Poly is 337th.
The Mustangs are 3-12 overall with two of their wins coming against non division 1 teams and the other a mere 4-point win over Siena. On top of all that, CS-Northridge is 13-4 ATS last 17 conference games and the Matadors have owned Cal Poly in recent meetings, covering 9 of the last 11 meetings. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-11-20||Boise State +11.5 v. San Diego State||65-83||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Boise State +11½ -110
I like the value here with the Broncos as a double-digit road dog against the Aztecs. San Diego State comes in at 16-0 and there's no doubt in my mind the number on the Aztecs has been inflated quite a bit here because of their strong start.
I'm not saying they won't win at home, but I think Boise State can definitely make a game of this. The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 and are 7-2 ATS last 9 times vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS last 8 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Aztecs are just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home as a favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Boise State!
|01-11-20||Florida -1.5 v. Missouri||75-91||Loss||-110||23 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Florida -1½ -110
The Gators are worth a look at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. Florida has been impressive to start out SEC play, rallying from 20 down to stun Alabama in OT in their conference opener and then going on the road and whooping South Carolina 81-68 as a mere 4.5-point favorite.
Missouri has started out 0-2 and while one of those is an excusable loss at Kentucky, the other was a home setback against a struggling Tennessee team that had lost 4 of 5. Also the Tigers are 6-2 at home, but all 6 wins have come against teams ranked 119th or worse in KenPom. Florida is No. 23.
Florida's offense finally seems to be rounding into form and I just think it will be too much for a Missouri offense that is only averaging 66.7 ppg and a mere 59.0 ppg in SEC play. As for the Tigers defense, it's not been nearly as good of late.
Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road favorite. Tigers are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a win percent of 60% or better and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida!
|01-11-20||Marshall +1.5 v. UAB||50-61||Loss||-115||17 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Marshall +1½ -115
Easy play here on the Thundering Herd at basically a pick'em at UAB. Marshall has really been a different team over the last month. They are 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. They did fail to cover last time out at Middle Tennessee, but that was an unfortunate non-cover as they had a 9-point lead with less than a minute to play and ended up winning by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite.
Marshall should be able to get a lot of easy baskets in this one. UAB is one of the worst teams in the country in turnover rate ranking 336th and the Herd are 30th nationally in steal rate.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 at least 15 games into the season who are a good offensive team (74-78 ppg) and facing a bad offensive team (63-67 ppg) are a dominant 42-16 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marshall!
|01-11-20||Bulls v. Pistons -3.5||108-99||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pistons -3½ -109
I like the value here with Detroit laying a small number at home against the Bulls. Chicago just keeps getting all kinds of respect from the books despite the fact that they haven't been playing well or covering. Bulls have lost 6 straight and failed to cover all 6.
I just don't see it getting better for Chicago in this one. Bulls are really missing big man Wendell Carter Jr, whose absence negatively impacts the team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.
This is also a really tough scheduling spot for the Bulls. Chicago played at New Orleans on Wednesday, quickly flew back home for a game against Indiana last night and then had to turn around and head to Detroit. Not ideal at all for a young team like the Bulls, who are short handed and lacking confidence. Take Detroit!
|01-11-20||Old Dominion +3.5 v. Charlotte||Top||47-53||Loss||-110||17 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Monarchas as a small road dog against the 49ers. Both of these teams like to play slow and really grind it out defensively. Thing is Old Dominion has thrived against these kind of opponents, going a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a strong defensive team that is allowing 64 or fewer points/game.
This is also a great spot to fade Charlotte. The 49ers have won 5 of 6 and are off a win over Middle Tennessee where they had a huge lead at the half. Charlotte is 8-20 ATS last 28 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and are 8-28 ATS last 36 after a game where they led by 15 or more at the half.
The Monarchs have also owned this series. They have swept the two-game season series each of the last 2 years and 3 of the 4 wins have come by double-digits. No way should they be a dog here. Take Old Dominion!
|01-11-20||Texas A&M +6 v. Vanderbilt||69-50||Win||100||18 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas A&M +6 -115
I like the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Commodores. Texas A&M got off to a really tough start to the season, as they opened up just 3-5. Things have got much better of late, as they are 4-1 SU and have started out 2-0 ATS in SEC play.
I like this matchup for Texas A&M, as Vanderbilt is a team that lives on 3-pointers and free throws. That's going to be a big problem for the Commodores, as the Aggies are holding opponents to just 28.9% shooting from deep and give up only 13 free throw attempts per/game (16th best defensive free throw rate).
Just to give ya a comparison, Vanderbilt's opponents are averaging 21 free throw attempts. Texas A&M averages 20 attempts, so the Aggies should be able to keep this close and even win outright simply from the edge at the charity line.
Commodores are also 1-8 ATS last 9 conference home games and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover. Take Texas A&M!
|01-10-20||Hornets v. Jazz UNDER 213||92-109||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hornets/Jazz under 213 -109
I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA matchup that has Utah hosting Charlotte. I just think this is too big a number given how strong the Jazz are defensively and how poor the Hornets are on offense.
Utah ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and in their last 5 games are giving up just 101 ppg on 43% shooting. Charlotte ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency, as they are scoring just 104.6 ppg on 44% shooting and that drops to 102 ppg on 43% shooting when on the road.
Another thing here is pace. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play with Charlotte the slowest team in the league.
UNDER is also 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a home win and 36-18 in their last 54 at home off 2 straight games where they scored 110 or more points. UNDER has also cashed in 7 of their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. and is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two in Utah. Take the UNDER !
|01-10-20||Maryland v. Iowa +1.5||Top||49-67||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa +1½ -103
I love the value here with Iowa as a home dog against the Terps. I just feel we are getting an exceptional price on the Hawkeyes due to the fact that they come in off an upset loss at Nebraska. A poor game against the Cornhuskers was to be expected off a devastating loss to Penn State just a few days earlier.
Iowa is also not the same team on the road as they are at home, where they are 6-1 this season. This definitely feels like a must win for the Hawkeyes as they are sitting at 1-3 in Big Ten play. Big thing to note is only one of their first 4 conference games have come at home and that was a 72-52 blowout win over a good Minnesota team.
Maryland 10-0 at home, but just 3-2 on the road and just 1-2 in true road games. Terps have also failed to cover all 3 of their true road games. Maryland is also in a massive letdown spot off a huge home win over then No. 11 Ohio State, which they won 67-55.
Terps are just 1-8 ATS last 9 road games off a home win by 10 or more. Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 5 off a loss and 5-0 ATS last 5 at home. Take Iowa!
|01-09-20||BYU +4 v. St. Mary's||Top||84-87||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on BYU +4 -110
I love the value here with BYU as a small road dog against the Gaels. While the Cougars have had all kinds of problems in recent trips to St. Mary's, this is the best BYU team in years. The Cougars come in having won 6 straight with the most recent being a 25-point beatdown at home against Loyola-Marymount.
While BYU was coasting in their last game, St Mary's found themselves in an exhausting 4 overtime game at Pacific, which they wound up losing 99-107. Four different players played 37 or more minutes, with both Ford and Kuhse hitting the 50-point mark. Ford, teams leading scorer, logging 58 out of possible 60 minutes of game time.
I just don't think 4 days will be enough for them to come out with the kind of energy needed against a really good Cougars team. Take BYU!
|01-09-20||Arizona v. Oregon -3||73-74||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Oregon -3 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks laying a short number at home against the Wildcats in Thursday's huge Pac-12 showdown. Both teams come in ranked in the Top 25 and have just 3 losses on their resume. However, Oregon has played the much tougher schedule, has the more impressive wins and one of the top home court advantages in the country.
Arizona started out the season 9-0, but only one of those wins was against a team ranked in the Top 75 and that was a home victory against Illinois way back in early November. Since that perfect 9-0 start the Wildcats are just 2-3. Books have also been giving Arizona way too much love, as they are just 2-6 ATS last 8.
Oregon on the other hand is 11-4 ATS on the season and have won all 8 of their home games this season. Another factor is that Arizona has only played one true road game all season and that was back on Dec. 7th. I just think this is going to be too tough a spot for the Wildcats to keep it close. Take Oregon!
|01-09-20||Cavs +7 v. Pistons||115-112||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cavs +7 -109
The Cavs are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Pistons. These two teams are in the second leg of a home-and-home split as they just played at Cleveland on Tuesday. Detroit won that game 115-113, but needed to outscore the Cavs 31-18 in the 4th quarter to do so.
It's not easy beating a team twice in a row in such a short period of time, even against a bad team like the Cavs. Detroit also has no business laying this big of a number right now. Pistons are down 4 of their best players in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Markieff Morris. Prior to beating Cleveland, Detroit had gone just 2-9 in their previous 11 games and only covered the spread in 3 of those contests.
Cavs are 20-7-1 ATS last 28 games vs a team like the Pistons that have won fewer than 40% of their games and Detroit is a mere 3-9-1 ATS last 13 off a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland!
|01-08-20||UC-Santa Barbara -8 v. Cal Poly||63-45||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Santa Barbara -8 -109
UC-Santa Barbara is worth a look here laying single-digits on the road against Cal Poly. These two teams aren't even close in terms of talent. The Gauchos are ranked 145th in KenPom, while the Mustangs are way back 331st.
All 3 of Cal Poly's wins this season have come at home, but two of those are against non-Div 1 schools. They lost to Fresno State by a score of 62-37 (Bulldogs No. 133) and to CS-Bakersfield by a score of 72-50 (No. 236).
On top of that, UC-Santa Barbara has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in the series (covering 9 of the 12) and their average margin of victory is 11 ppg. The Mustangs are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a home win and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 4 or more games in a row. Take UC-Santa Barbara!
|01-08-20||Long Beach State +6.5 v. CS-Northridge||77-95||Loss||-109||20 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Long Beach State +6½ -109
I really like the value here with the 49ers as a decently priced road dog against the Matadors. These two teams come in with identical records at 5-11, but note that Long Beach State has a win over Providence, while CS-Northridge's best win is against Fresno State.
This isn't just a game the 49ers can cover, but they can win here outright. Something they have done in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Long Beach State has also gone 4-0-1 ATS last 5 times they have faced a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
They are also 55-34 ATS last 89 on the road vs teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better and 24-10 in their last 34 vs teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards a game. Take Long Beach State!
|01-08-20||Arkansas v. LSU -5||77-79||Loss||-109||21 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on LSU -5 -109
LSU is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. Arkansas comes with an impressive 12-1 record, but a lot of that is a favorable schedule. Only two of those wins have come against a team ranked in the Top 100 of the KenPom rankings.
They have repeatedly been overvalued because of their strong record, as they come in a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Also, they come in allowing just 59.8 ppg, but that number sky rockets to 69.7 ppg on the road and they will be facing a LSU team that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, scoring 81 ppg on 50% shooting. Not to mention the Tigers are only giving up 62 ppg and 38% shooting at home and Arkansas is only hitting 40% from the field away from home.
Razorbacks are 11-34 ATS last 45 road games vs a team that is shooting 48% or better from the field and 10-22 ATS in their last 32 overall vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take LSU!
|01-08-20||Vanderbilt +16 v. Auburn||Top||79-83||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Weeknight PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +16 -109
I love the value here with the Commodores catching a huge number on the road against the Tigers. No question Auburn is the better team, but they are simply way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 record.
It's not always easy getting up for a conference game against a bottom feeder like Vandy and I think that will be the case here, as the Tigers are off a huge road win against Mississippi State in their SEC opener and have a big home game on deck against Georgia.
Vandy doesn't get a ton of love with a mere 8-5 record, but note that all 5 of their losses have come against teams ranked in the Top 110 of the country and all 5 have come by 9 or fewer. That includes two overtime losses to Richmond and SMU.
Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite with the only cover coming against Lipscomb, who is ranked 225th. Take Vanderbilt!
|01-08-20||George Washington +11.5 v. St. Louis||58-63||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on George Washington +11½ -109
I really like the value here with the Colonials as a double-digit dog against the Billikens. St Louis just hasn't been the same team since they lost sharpshooter Gibson Jimmerson. They are 4-1 without him, but two of those wins have come by a mere 3-points and the other was a 10-point win against Bethune-Cookman.
Thing is they are still getting a ton of love from the books because they are 12-3 on the season. Also, George Washington has gone just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last 4, but did only lost by 5 to St Bonaventure in their last game and did so shooting just 9 of 27 from deep.
Even when they are at full strength St Louis is not a team to back as a big favorite. Over the last 2 seasons the Billikens are a mere 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more. They are also 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home. Colonials are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take George Washington!
|01-08-20||Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 209||112-110||Loss||-110||20 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA -Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Raptors/Hornets under 209 -110
The UNDER is worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Hornets hosting the Raptors. UNDER has cashed in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games and a big reason for that is they have had to really slow things down with all the injuries. They have been without Siakam, Powell and Gasol for a while now and just recently lost VanVleet.
Last night they played at home against the Blazers and that game finished with a combined 200 points with a total of 221. Note that Portland had seen each of their previous 6 games see a combined score of 210 or more with 5 of those going for at least 225.
With Toronto playing on no rest, expect them to slow things down even more and Charlotte will have no problem joining in, as they are dead last in the NBA in pace of play and rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER!
|01-08-20||St Bonaventure +3 v. George Mason||61-49||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on St Bonaventure +3 -110
Easy play here on the Bonnies getting points at George Mason. St Bonaventure got off to a shaky start this season, going just 1-4 in their first 5 games, but have gone 8-1 in their last 9 with the only loss coming on the road against a good Buffalo team by just 5.
George Mason comes in with an impressive 11-3 record, but they are not as good as that mark would lead you to believe. The Patriots played a super easy non-conference schedule. Their only win against a team in the Top 150 was a 4-point victory against New Mexico State. The other two games against top teams resulted in a 23-point loss to Maryland and a 34-point loss to TCU.
George Mason opened up conference play against VCU this past weekend and lost 72-59 at home to VCU in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this one. Take St. Bonaventure!
|01-07-20||Iowa v. Nebraska +8||Top||70-76||Win||100||23 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +8 -110
I love the value here with the Cornhuskers as a near double-digit home dog against the Hawkeyes. This might seem like a fair price given how good Iowa has looked early on and the fact that Nebraska just got smoked by 17 at home as a 4.5-point dog to Rutgers, but this is all about the spot.
These two schools don't really like each other and I'm confident we get a max effort here from the Cornhuskers at home. As for Iowa, they could be in for a bit of a letdown in this one. Hawkeyes let a late lead slip away in an emotional and heated 86-89 loss to Penn State on Saturday.
Starting guard CJ Fredrick went down with an ankle injury in the 1st half and wasn't able to return and while listed as questionable probably doesn't play. That makes an already weak bench that much weaker and let's not forget they are playing on just 2 days rest and in their first true road game since going to ISU back on Dec. 12th.
Hawks are just 6-18 ATS last 24 on the road and Nebraska has faired well at home against high-scoring teams like Iowa, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 at home vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take Nebraska!
|01-07-20||Wolves v. Grizzlies -3||112-119||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grizzlies -3 -109
These two teams come in with similar records, as Memphis is 15-22 and the Wolves are 14-21. However, it's not a surprise for the Grizzlies to be struggling and that's why I think there's value with Memphis in this game.
Grizzlies come in having won 3 of 4 and have been covering at a very high rate over the last month. Since Dec. 9th Memphis has gone 10-4-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +6.5 ppg. As for Minnesota, they have won 4 of 6 since losing 11 straight, but those wins have come against the Kings, Nets, Warriors and Cavs.
Wolves are also just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Grizz are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 at home. Take Memphis!
|01-07-20||Tennessee +6 v. Missouri||69-59||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +6 -110
The Volunteers are worth a look here as a dog against the Tigers. It's been rough sledding for Tennessee since losing starting point guard Lamonte Turner. Vols have lost 4 of 5, but it has come against some stiff competition (Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin and LSU).
I just think it led to an inflated line on Missouri, who just can't be trusted to lay this kind of number with how they struggle to score and their methodical pace. Tigers are 120th in offensive AdjO and 290th in tempo.
Not to mention this is a bit of a flat spot for Missouri after laying it all on the line in their last game against Kentucky, who everyone gives their best shot. Vols have gone an impressive 10-3 ATS last 13 road games after playing 3 or more games in a row at home. Take Tennessee!
|01-07-20||Providence +8 v. Marquette||81-80||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +8 -109
I like the value here with the Friars as a near double-digit dog against the Golden Eagles. Even though Providence comes in off 3 straight impressive wins over Texas, Georgetown and at DePaul, I still think they are a bit undervalued due to their poor 6-6 start to the season.
We are also seeing Marquette a bit overvalued here at home after they just had their way with No. 10 Villanova 71-60, improving them to 8-0 at home. No question the Golden Eagles should be favored, but this is too many points in a game they could easily suffer a letdown after that big win over the Wildcats.
Marquette is just 2-5 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a losing road record, while the Friars are a31-16 ATS last 47 off an upset win as a dog. Take Providence!
|01-07-20||Florida v. South Carolina +5.5||81-68||Loss||-109||19 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on South Carolina +5½ -109
The Gamecocks are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Gators. South Carolina comes in off a shocking 56-63 loss at home to Stetson as a 22.5-point favorite. Gamecocks have had a problem not showing up against lessor teams this year, but there's no concerns of them not coming to play in this one.
One thing to note about that loss to Stetson is it came way back on Dec. 30th, not an ideal time for teams playing during the holidays and that was their only game since Dec. 22nd. No doubt head coach Frank Martin has had their full attention in practice over the last week.
We know the talent is there. This team went on the road and beat Virginia as a 10-point dog and also has a 13-point win at Clemson as a 6-point dog. Gators have been overvalued all season, as they are just 4-9 ATS and have lost both of their true road games at UConn and Butler. Take South Carolina!
|01-06-20||Jazz v. Pelicans +3.5||Top||128-126||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +3½ -115
I love the value here with New Orleans getting points at home against the Jazz. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans, who are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best stretch of basketball this year. New Orleans is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The only loss coming by 10-points at the Lakers.
I get Utah is also playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, but this is not a good spot. Utah is playing their 3rd and final game of a 3-game road trip and have already secured a winning trip with wins at Chicago and Orlando.
The other thing to note with the Jazz and their recent run is the majority of these wins have come against bad teams. In fact, only one of the 10 wins in their 10-1 run have come against a team that has a winning record. Take New Orleans!
|01-06-20||UL - Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 146||81-73||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UL - Lafayette/Appalachian State under 146 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's Sun Belt matchup between UL-Lafayette and Appalachian State. I think we are getting value with the total due to the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns come in averaging 73 ppg while giving up 74.6 ppg.
Thing is Lafayette was playing much faster in non-conference than they are early on in Sun Belt play. Ragin' Cajuns are averaging just 67.2 ppg and allowing 67.5 ppg in their 4 conference games. You combine that with the fact that the Mountaineers are giving up just 63.8 ppg overall and 61.6 ppg at home and you can see why the books have completely missed the mark in this one.
UNDER is 22-7 in Lafayette's last 29 games vs a team that is giving up 64 or fewer points/game 15+ games into the season. UNDER is also 9-3 in Appalachian State's last 12 games overall, 9-1 in their last 10 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|01-05-20||Wolves -2 v. Cavs||118-103||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Wolves -2 -109
I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road favorite against the Cavs. Minnesota has some key guys hurt right now, but Cleveland is a complete mess and are an easy fade at any line close to a pick'em.
Timberwolves have also done a nice job with the recent injuries, as they have won 3 of 5 and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. Cavs are 8-19 ATS last 27 home games off a home loss and 4-13 ATS last 17 after losing 4/5 of their last 6.
We also see that home dogs who are getting outscored by 9+ points/game are a mere 48-82 (37%) ATS since 1996 when coming off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take Minnesota!
|01-05-20||Northwestern +9.5 v. Minnesota||Top||68-77||Win||100||19 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +9½ -108
Love the value here with the Wildcats as a near double-digit dog against the Gophers. I just think we are getting a great price on Northwestern because of the fact that they come in having lost 3 straight. However, they just as easily could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 5 or less points.
Minnesota is a good team, but should not be laying this big a number inside Big Ten play. Gophers have already lost twice at home to Oklahoma and DePaul, two teams I think are pretty similar in terms of talent to the Wildcats.
Minnesota also has a history of playing down to their competition, as they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 vs a team with a losing record. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 9 meetings in the series. Take Northwestern!
|01-05-20||Manhattan +1 v. Niagara||67-62||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +1 -109
Easy play here on the Jaspers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Manhattan comes in at just 5-5, but opened up MAAC play with a 76-67 win at Canisius as a 5-point dog.
They should have no problem cashing another win and cover on the road against a bad Niagara team that has won just 3-games all season. Manhattan is 9-3 ATS last 12 off a win and are 12-5 ATS last 17 as a dog.
Jaspers should have their way inside against a small Purple Eagles team with their big duo of Warren Williams and Pauley Paulicap. Not only should they get a lot of easy looks, but they also should get a ton of second chances with offensive rebounds.
Niagara did win and cover last time out against Fairfield, but are just 4-10 ATS last 14 off a cover and 2-5 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Take Manhattan!
|01-04-20||Idaho State +8.5 v. CS Sacramento||49-68||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS-Sacramento/Idaho St ATS WINNER on Idaho State +8½ -110
The Bengals are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Hornets. This is just too good a price to pass up with Idaho State, who just knocked off Eastern Washington 75-69 as a 7.5-point home dog.
Sacramento State on the other hand is coming off back-to-back losses and are in the midst of a major offensive slump. The Hornets have shot 36% or worse from the field in each of their last 4 games and when you can't score it's hard to cover a big number like this.
Bengals are have covered 5 straight games on the road and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as an underdog. Take Idaho State +8.5!
|01-04-20||Oral Roberts +1.5 v. Nebraska-Omaha||67-74||Loss||-109||8 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Oral Roberts/Neb-Omaha ATS WINNER on Oral Roberts +1½ -109
Oral Roberts is definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against Nebraska-Omaha. This is a great buy low spot on the Golden Eagles after losing their last two on the road against BYU and South Dakota State. At the same time, it's a good spot to sell on the Mavericks, who are off back to back wins.
While Nebraska-Omaha was able to win their last two, the defense continues to be a huge problem. The Mavs have now allowed 78 or more points in 5 straight games. That's a bit of problem here against a Oral Roberts squad that can light you up. Golden Eagles are averaging 78.4 ppg and have done so despite shooting just 42% from the field for the season.
Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 17-6 ATS last 23 off 2 or more consecutive losses. Nebraska-Omaha on the other hand is a mere 10-22 ATS last 32 after covering 3 of their last 4. Take Oral Roberts!
|01-04-20||Pacers -6 v. Hawks||111-116||Loss||-109||11 h 34 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Pacers -6 -109
I got no problem laying this kind of number with Indiana at Atlanta on Saturday. Pacers are going to be motivated to get a win after losing their last game at home to the Nuggets and the Hawks are the perfect team for them to get right against.
Just when it looked like Atlanta was going to be at full strength for the first time in a long time, John Collins tweaked his back and is out of the lineup. Even if Collins had been able to play, this was going to be a tough spot for the Hawks playing on no rest after laying it all on the line in a hard fought 106-109 loss at Boston last night.
Hawks are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 2-10 ATS last 12 off a cover and 1-6 ATS last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Indiana!
|01-04-20||Jazz -3.5 v. Magic||109-96||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Jazz -3½ -109
Easy play here on Utah as a small road favorite against the Magic. Orlando is missing a number of key guys to injury and are in an absolute awful scheduling spot. Magic were clearly motivated in their game last night at home against Heat, but given their lack of depth it will be hard to bounce back with another strong effort on no rest. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Utah on the other hand is in the midst of their best stretch of the season. Jazz have won 4 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They have covered each of their last 5 and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Magic, including a 7-point home win earlier this season. That earlier result is worth noting, as Orlando is a miserable 0-10 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Take Utah!
|01-04-20||UAB v. Old Dominion -3||Top||52-58||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion -3 -109
I love the value here with the Monarchs as a small home favorite against the Blazers. Don't be fooled by Old Dominion's 5-9 record, as they have played a really tough non-conference schedule. It also has them undervalued and we have seen that of late with them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Most recently they won and covered in a 70-60 win at home over Middle Tennessee. UAB has lost 3 straight true road games. Most recently falling 44-51 at Charlotte in their last game. To only score 44 points against the 49ers tells you a lot about the struggles of this Blazers offense and this another tough matchup for them.
Not only does ODU make it tough on teams to score inside they dominate the glass. Simply playing good defense won't be enough for UAB in this one. Monarchs are 6-0 ATS last 6 times they have played a team like the Blazers that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game. Blazers are also 1-6-1 ATS last 8 times they have matched up with a team with a losing record. Take Old Dominion!
|01-04-20||Raptors v. Nets -1||121-102||Loss||-105||17 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Nets -1 -105
This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and take Brooklyn here at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Toronto is still down 3 starters in Siakam, Powell and Gasol and while they played well without these guys for a while, they are struggle at the moment.
Raptors have lost 4 of their last 6 and will be playing on just 1 day of rest after a grueling defensive game against Miami last time out. In total it's Toronto's 6th game in a 9 day stretch. So while the Nets have lost 4 in a row, they should be the fresher and more motivated team in this one.
Raptors are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after a contest where they allowed 90 or fewer points. Nets are 28-15 ATS last 43 when they come in having lost 4 of t 5 and 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a road loss. Take Brooklyn!
|01-04-20||Middle Tennessee +8 v. Charlotte||62-68||Win||100||18 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK on Middle Tennessee +8 -109
I really like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a near double-digit dog at Charlotte. It's been a real tough go for Middle Tennessee to start the year as they are just 4-10 SU and 1-9 ATS with a 0-7 ATS mark on the road. I believe the books have finally adjusted the number on the Blue Raiders, as this is a really good price to back them against the 49ers.
Charlotte just isn't a good enough team to be laying this kind of number, especially with how they are shooting the ball right now. After hitting just 33% from the field in a loss at ECU, they shot just 37% at home in a 51-44 win against UAB.
49ers are just 7-19 ATS last 26 off a win and a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 after holding a team to 50 or fewer points. Charlotte is also just 8-19 ATS last 27 at home after winning 4 of their last 5. Take Middle Tennessee!
|01-04-20||East Tennessee State +3.5 v. Furman||56-65||Loss||-109||18 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on East Tennessee State +3½ -109
East Tennessee State is worth a look here in a massive revenge spot against the Paladins. Last year Furman laid it on the Bucs 91-61. Thing ETSU has everyone back and have made it clear they want to make amends for what happened last season.
Hard to bet against the Buccaneers with how well they are playing. East Tennessee State has won 4 straight and 10 of 11 overall. They are 13-2 on the season and one of those losses is a road game at Kansas (by just 12 points).
ETSU will be hitting the road after playing their last 3 at home and that's worth noting as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games following 3 or more consecutive home games and a perfect 9-0 ATS last 9 times after playing 3 straight at home as a favorite. Furman is just 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take East Tennessee State!
|01-04-20||Texas State -4 v. Arkansas State||70-67||Loss||-108||3 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Texas St/Arkansas St ATS WINNER on Texas State -4 -108
If you just look at the records this line won't make a lot of sense. Texas State is 7-7 overall and 1-6 on the road, yet are laying a decent number here at Arkansas State, who is 10-4 overall and 7-2 at home. Trust the books in this one. Bobcats are the better team. They got the better offense and the better defense.
Note that Texas State has played the likes of Air Force, Baylor, Houston on the road and all 3 of those losses were by single digits. In fact, this team has only one loss all season by more than 10 points and that's a mere 12-point loss at Georgia State. Arkansas State hasn't been nearly as competitive against good teams and just lost at home by 19 to Texas Arlington.
Bobcats are 22-9 ATS last 31 road games after failing to cover their last 2 games and the favorite is a dominant 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Take Texas State!
|01-04-20||North Texas v. Marshall -3.5||67-64||Loss||-109||16 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Marshall -3½ -109
The Thundering Herd are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Mean Green. Marshall comes into this game having won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a UNI team.
They are perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, which has coincided with the addition of Andrew Taylor to the lineup. Since he's been added the Herd have scored a minimum of 80 points. That offense is simply going to be too much for North Texas, who despite a recent surge of scoring in their last few games are averaging just 60.6 ppg away from home, where they are 1-6 on the season.
Books simply haven't caught up to this new look Marshall team, plus we are seeing the Mean Green still a bit overvalued from their recent string of 6 straight covers. A streak that came to an end in their last game when they gave up 93 points on the road to WKU. Take Marshall!
|01-04-20||Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina +1.5||72-74||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Georgia St/Coastal Carolina ATS WINNER on Coastal Carolina +1½ -109
The Chanticleers are worth a look here as a small home dog against the Panthers in Saturday's Sun Belt play. Georgia State comes in having won 9 of 10 and are fresh off a 69-60 win as a 2-point dog at Appalachian State.
Thing is the Panthers will only have one day off between that game against the Mountaineers and this one. I just think it's asking a bit too much of the Panthers against a good Coastal Carolina team that has been playing well with 5 wins in their last 7 games.
Georgia State is also just 2-6 ATS last 8 as a road favorite, while the Chanticleers are 5-2 ATS last 7 as a dog. Take Coastal Carolina!
|01-04-20||NC State v. Clemson +2||70-81||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson +2 -109
The Tigers are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Wolfpack. The books are absolutely begging you to take NC State in this one. Wolfpack come in at 10-3 and are facing a Clemson team that is just 6-7 overall and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
What people will overlook is the Tigers are poised to get things going. They just recently got back one of their better players in Clyde Trapp, who returned 3 games ago (recovering from offseason ACL surgery) and was just inserted into the starting lineup in their last game against Miami.
NC State simply doesn't play good enough defense to be trusted away from home. Wolfpack are allowing 80.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their 4 road games this season. That's a big problem against a Clemson defense that only gives up 58.8 ppg and 38% shooting at home.
Tigers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 5-2 ATS last 7 as a dog. Home team is also a strong 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Clemson!
|01-03-20||Pelicans +11 v. Lakers||113-123||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Pelicans +11 -110
I really like the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Lakers. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans right now. New Orleans comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won and covered 4 straight, including outright wins as road dogs against both the Blazers and Nuggets.
Lakers are clearly the more talented team, but I think they are so good that they have a hard time getting up for a team like the Pelicans. Same can't be said for New Orleans. With all the former Lakers' on the Pelicans roster, this is one they are going to give everything they got.
Pelicans are 31-17 ATS last 48 after 2 or more consecutive wins, while LA is a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 overall, 2-6 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take New Orleans!
|01-03-20||Temple -3 v. Tulsa||Top||44-70||Loss||-110||19 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -3 -110
I love the value here with the Owls as a small road favorite against the Golden Hurricane. Temple will be riding a wave of momentum after closing out their 56-49 win on the road against UCF on a 12-2 run. Their defense held the Knights scoreless for the last 3.5 minutes.
That win really speaks volumes to what this Owls team is capable of. Temple nearly won by double-digits despite shooting a mere 37.7% from the field and turning it over 17 times. I look for them to not only shoot the ball better, but take better care of it against a struggling Tulsa team that has lost 3 straight.
Golden Hurricane are just 4-13 ATS last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. Owls on the other hand are 7-2 ATS last 9 overall and 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Note that while Tulsa is 7-2 at home, they are just 4-5 ATS in those games. Take Temple!
|01-03-20||Blazers -5.5 v. Wizards||122-103||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers -5½ -109
The Blazers are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the deplete Wizards. Public will have a tough time backing Portland after many were on them in their last game, which they lost by 24 on the road to the Knicks as a 4-point favorite. That only makes me like them that much more given they are laying an even bigger number in an almost the same spot against the same caliber a team.
I just think the Blazers ran out of gas after making the lengthy trip across the country over the New Years holiday. I expect a much more focused and energized Portland team in this one. As for the Wizards, they are decimated with injuries and there's a decent chance they won't have their best player in Bradley Beal. Either way I don't think they have any shot of keeping this close. Take Portland!
|01-03-20||Delaware -3 v. Drexel||55-61||Loss||-100||17 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Delaware -3 +100
The Blue Hens are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Dragons. Delaware should be extremely motivated to get a win here after letting one slip away in their most recent game against Charleston. The Blue Hens let a 6-point halftime lead turn into a 12-point loss.
I think that setback is definitely giving us some value here, as they are definitely the more talented of the two teams here. Drexel has also been overvalued by the books, especially at home. Dragons are 5-9 ATS overall and just 2-5 ATS at home. They have failed to cover 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Blue Hens have also been sensational in this spot, going 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Dragons are also a mere 2-5 ATS last 7 as a dog and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Delaware!
|01-02-20||Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State -1.5||79-96||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -1½ -110
This is too good a price to pass up with the Jackrabbits at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. All you have to do is look at the home/away splits to see the value in this one. South Dakota State is a perfect 8-0 at home compared to 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts is 1-6 on the road compared to 6-0 at home.
The Golden Eagles are simply getting too much love here because they come in having covered 3 straight and each of their last 5 lined games overall. Thing is they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 on the road when they come in having covered 4/5 of their last 6.
Jackrabbits have been undervalued a lot lately, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 31-14 ATS last 45 off a conference loss and 4-0 ATS last 4 as a home favorite. Take South Dakota State!
|01-02-20||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 218.5||109-103||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder/Spurs under 218½ -109
Easy play on the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Thunder. Oklahoma City likes to play at a slow pace and that combined with a mediocre offense and solid defense is a great recipe for low-scoring games. UNDER has cashed in each of their last 5 games.
Spurs inability to lock down defensively was a big reason for their early season struggles, but they have been much better on that side of the ball. San Antonio has held 9 of their last 14 opponents to 44% or worse from the field and will be facing a Thunder offense that has shot no better than 45% in their last 4 games.
UNDER is 10-5 in OKC's 15 road games this season, 27-12 in their last 39 as a dog and 11-2 in their last 13 with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER!
|01-02-20||Jazz v. Bulls +4||102-98||Push||0||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bulls +4 -109
I really like the value here with Chicago as a home dog against the Jazz. The Bulls have been an absolute money-maker over the last month. Chicago is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and have covered 7 of their last 9 as an underdog.
Bulls do come into this game off an ugly 123-102 home loss to the Bucks, but that's actually a big positive here, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS last 8 times they have been coming off a loss. Jazz have won 8 of 9, but it's come against a very favorable run in their schedule. Utah is still a mere 8-9 on the road this season.
Jazz won 104-81 at home against Detroit in their most recent game, but that's also a positive for us, as Utah is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Chicago!
|01-02-20||Troy State +4 v. Louisiana-Monroe||Top||63-79||Loss||-110||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy State +4 -110
Absolutely love the value here with the Trojans as a road dog against ULM. While both teams come in with similarly poor records, Troy is 4-2 over their last 6 and working on a 5-1 ATS run.
Warhawks have lost 5 straight and their 4 wins this season have come against the likes of Louisiana College, Alcorn State, Northwestern St and Millsaps College. Two of those games didn't have a line and the other two they were double-digit favorites.
No way should ULM be favored here. Warhawks are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Trojans are also 7-3 ATS last 10 games when listed as a dog. Take Troy!
|01-02-20||Nuggets v. Pacers -1||124-116||Loss||-109||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers -1 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with Indiana at home. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home floor this season with a 15-3 SU mark. They are outscoring opponents at home by 7.3 ppg and just won in a very similar spot in their last game, beating the 76ers 115-97 as a mere 3.5-point home favorite.
Denver is just getting too much love here, especially with how they have been playing. While the Nuggets are 9-2 in their last 10, they are just 2-2 in their last 4 and off a ugly 130-104 loss at Houston. They are also a mere 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
Denver is also 1-6-2 ATS last 9 road games vs a team with a winning record and have not covered any of their last 5 games when coming off a loss by 10 or more. Pacers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Indiana!
|01-02-20||Georgia State v. Appalachian State -2||69-60||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Appalachian State -2 -110
Really like the value here with the Mountaineers at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Panthers. For starters, this is a great buy low spot on Appalachian State coming off a 12-point loss to NC State.
The Mountaineers have thrived in this spot, going 12-2 ATS last 14 times after a loss by 10 or more points. App State had also been playing well prior to the setback, as they had won their previous 4 games. Mountaineers are 22-10 ATS last 32 at home when they come in having won 4 of 5.
Georgia State is off to a strong 9-4 start and are 8-1 in their last 9 games, but are in a tough scheduling spot playing on just 2 days of rest. Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS last 4 as a favorite and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Appalachian State!
|01-02-20||Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina -1.5||70-67||Loss||-110||7 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Coastal Carolina -1½ -110
The books have completely missed the mark in this one. These two teams come in with identical records, but are simply not giving the Chanticleers the kind of respect they deserve at home, especially with how much worse the Eagles have been on the road. Georgia Southern is a perfect 6-0 at home, but are just 2-5 on the road.
Coastal Carolina is also playing well with 5 wins over their last 6 games and a 3-1 ATS mark in their last 4. Chanticleers should have their way on the offensive end in this one. They are averaging 82 ppg and shooting 47.3% from the field. They will facing an Eagles defense that has an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% (295th) on the defensive end.
Chanticleers are a dominant 20-9-1 ATS last 30 games off a SU win, while the Eagles are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road dog and 0-4 ATS last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Coastal Carolina!
|01-01-20||New Mexico -10 v. San Jose State||Top||85-88||Loss||-110||20 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico -10 -110
I love the Lobos winning by double-digits and covering the spread on the road against the Spartans. This is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. New Mexico is 13-2 and come into this one having won 8 straight. San Jose State is a mere 4-10 and are 1-8 in their last 9 games.
Spartans really don't do anything well. They are shooting a worthless 39.3% from the field on offense and are allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field. New Mexico is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse and allowing 45% or better.
San Jose State did cover in a home win over Pepperdine in their last game, but that's a positive here, as the Spartans are 0-6 ATS last 6 home games off a cover and 1-10 ATS last 11 overall off a cover in general. Take New Mexico!
|01-01-20||Blazers v. Knicks +4||93-117||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Knicks +4 -105
I really like the value here with the Knicks as a home dog against the Blazers. New York has really improved over the last 3+ weeks. They are 5-4 in their last 9 games after starting the season 4-20. They have covered 6 of their last 9 games and I like them to win this one outright.
Portland has lost 4 straight and it just keeps getting worse for the Blazers. After really dominating the Suns for 3 quarters in their last game they got outscored 39-27 in the 4th to lose 116-122. I just don't trust the Blazers on a mere 1-day of rest after having to travel clear across the country (nearly 3,000 miles) for this game, especially with it being over New Years.
Blazers are a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 235 or more and the Knicks are 12-2 ATS last 14 at home after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Take New York!
|01-01-20||Connecticut +3 v. Cincinnati||51-67||Loss||-109||17 h 44 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut +3 -109
The Huskies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is just getting a little too much love here at home. Bearcats have lost 3 of their last 4, including an ugly home loss to Colgate as a 12.5-point favorite.
Not to mention Cincinnati has been one of the worst bets in the country early on, as the Bearcats are 3-9 ATS. It's the exact opposite for Connecticut. Huskies come in having won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. They are also a dominant 9-3 ATS on the season, including a 3-1 ATS mark away from home.
Turnovers should be a key part in the Huskies cover here. UConn ranks 28th in defensive turnover rate, while the Bearcats are 238th in offensive turnover rate (average 15 turnovers/game).
There's also a great system here favoring the Huskies. Road teams off 3 or more consecutive home wins with a line of +3 to -3 are a dominant 97-52 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take UConn!
|01-01-20||South Dakota -1 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||59-70||Loss||-111||13 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Dakota -1 -111
The Coyotes are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against IUPU-Ft Wayne. I just feel we are getting value with South Dakota due to the fact that they come in off 3 straight losses as a favorite.
The recent struggles for the Coyotes can be pinpointed to the absence of starting point guard Triston Simpson. He had missed 7 games before returning for their last contest. He just had a bad first game back going 3 of 14 from the field. He should be much better in game two.
South Dakota is 13-4 ATS last 17 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Mastodons are just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 off a loss and 2-5-2 ATS last 9 as an underdog. Simply put the Coyotes should be laying a much bigger number here. Take South Dakota!
|12-31-19||Clippers v. Kings +7||Top||105-87||Loss||-105||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +7 -105
I love the value here with Sacramento as a big home dog against the Clippers. Kings are going to get up for this one against what many consider to be one of the favorites to win it all. Sacramento is also trying desperately to put an end to their losing streak which is up to 7 games now.
Thing is the Kings have been so close in a number of these games during their skid. In fact, 5 have been decided by single-digits, including each of the last 4. Clippers are off a ugly 13-point loss at home to Utah and are just 3-4 in their last 7 games.
I think this will be a tough spot for LA to get up with it being New Year's Eve and them returning home after this game for 4 in a row. Clippers also won't have the services of Beverley and he's a guy that really ignites the energy of this team.
Kings are 18-8 ATS last 26 after a loss by 6 or more, 12-4 ATS last 16 off a cover and 9-1 ATS last 10 when off a road loss where they covered as a dog. Take Sacramento!
|12-31-19||Cal-Riverside v. Air Force -4||56-105||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Air Force -4 -110
You have a 6-7 Air Force team that is laying a decent number against a 9-5 UC-Riverside squad, which tells you the records of these two are very misleading. I couldn't agree more with the books and actually see value here with the Falcons.
Air Force has simply played the tougher schedule and should have a big home court edge in this one, as the Highlanders are just 3-4 away from home and only scoring 61.3 ppg on the road. That inability to score on the road will be a problem against a Falcons team that is averaging 82.8 ppg and shooting 53% from the field on their home floor.
Riverside did have an upset win at Fresno State in their last game, but are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an win as a dog and 0-6 ATS when off a win as a road dog. Falcons are 18-7 ATS last 25 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 7 or more days of rest. Take Air Force!
|12-31-19||Celtics v. Hornets +7||109-92||Loss||-105||7 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hornets +7 -105
Charlotte is worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Celtics. Hornets come in having lost 5 straight, but we know we are going to get a big effort here at home against a team like Boston.
As for the Celtics, I think this is a real tough spot for Boston. Celtics have been all over the place of late. They were at Toronto last Wednesday for that Christmas Day matchup, got a day off before having to play back-to-back games at home and now have to travel to Charlotte on New Year's Even before heading right back home (next two days off). Real easy for the Celtics to just go through the motions in this one.
Hornets are a decent team to back when on a skid, as they are 22-10 ATS last 32 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 4 or more losses in the month of December are a strong 49-29 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte!
|12-31-19||Temple -2 v. UCF||Top||62-58||Win||100||5 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -2 -109
I'll lay the short number with the Owls on the road against UCF. I just think the matchup here heavily favors Temple. The Owls are so good at forcing teams to beat them from outside the paint, as they just don't give up easy baskets inside. That's a big problem for the Knights, who just don't have a lot of shooting. UCF comes in shooting a mere 30.6% from deep.
Another thing is the Knights rely a lot on getting second chance points by attacking the offensive glass and defensive rebounding is a big strength and priority for the Owls. Temple's defense has also only gotten better with the recent insertion of Jake Forrester into the starting lineup.
Owls are also a great team to back away from home. Temple is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 on the road against a team with a winning road record. Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Temple!
|12-30-19||Suns v. Blazers -4||122-116||Loss||-109||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Blazers -4 -109
Easy play here on Portland laying a really small price at home against the Suns. Blazers are coming off a hard fought 128-120 loss at home to Lakers, but were simply not happy with the result and it was their 3rd straight setback after they put together a 4-game winning streak.
I'm expecting a max effort here from Portland and I think that will be more than enough to take down what should be a tired Suns team that is playing their 3rd road game in a 4 day stretch. Phoenix did get an upset win at Sacramento in their last game, but only won by 2 and had lost 8 straight prior to the victory.
Blazers have only failed to cover once in their last 5 when laying points at home. Suns are just 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU win and 1-9 in their last 10 off a win by 6 or less points. Take Portland!
|12-30-19||Pistons v. Jazz -9||Top||81-104||Win||100||23 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA -Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -9 -110
This is an easy play here on the Jazz, who should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against a depleted Pistons team. Detroit has 4 key contributors who won't suit up for this game in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard.
It would have been hard enough for the Pistons to keep this close if they were full strength. They had the services of Griffin in their last game at San Antonio, but still managed to lose that game 136-109. Detroit's only win in their last 7 games is against a bad Wizards team at home. All 6 losses have been by 11 or more points.
Utah is also coming in playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 7 of their last 8, including a 120-107 win at the Clippers last time out as a 7-point dog. Take Utah!
|12-30-19||George Mason v. TCU -8.5||53-87||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU -8½ -110
The Horned Frogs should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against the Patriots. George Mason comes in at 11-1 and it's simply got them getting way to much respect against a superior opponent. The Patriots impressive start is a direct result of them playing the 327th ranked strength of schedule. Their only game against a team ranked inside the Top 100 in KenPom was vs Maryland and they lost by 23.
Another reason we are getting value is the fact that while TCU is a respectable 8-3 to start the year, they have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. There's nothing wrong with their 3 losses, as they have come against the likes of Clemson, USC and Xavier. All 3 coming by 8 or fewer points.
Once the Horned Frogs starting hit their shots they are going to be a real tough out in the Big 12 and with this being their final tune-up before conference play I think we see them lay it on the Patriots. Take TCU!
|12-30-19||St Bonaventure v. Buffalo UNDER 145.5||79-84||Loss||-110||21 h 44 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on St Bonaventure/Buffalo under 145½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's matchup between Buffalo and St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies are rolling right now, as they have won 7 straight and their defense has been a big part of their success.
Only once during this stretch has St Bonaventure given up more than 65 points, so while the Bulls are scoring 80.6 ppg, I don't see them coming anywhere close to that. Buffalo will find it really tough scoring inside. Bulls have an undersized frontline and will be facing one of the best interior defenders in the country in Osun Osunniyi.
I know Buffalo's defense has had their lapses, but the Bonnies are from an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they only average 67.7 ppg.
UNDER is 18-4 in the Bulls last 22 home games after scoring 80 or more points in 2 straight games and 6-0 in their last 6 at home off a blowout win by 20 or more. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Bonnies last 14 road games and 6-0 in their last 6 as a road dog of 3 or less. Take the UNDER!
|12-30-19||Youngstown State v. Illinois-Chicago -3.5||Top||70-64||Loss||-110||19 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois-Chicago -3½ -110
I love the value here with the Flames laying a short number at home against the Penguins. UIC has won each of their last two games and are in a great buy low spot, as they just recently got back one of their top scorers in Marcus Ottey. He's played in just the last 4 games and scored double-figures in all 4.
It's also worth noting that while the Flames are just 6-8 overall, they have had 3 losses by 4 or fewer points. Youngstown State is getting some love after covering 4 straight, but this is not an ideal spot for the Penguins are who will be forced to play their second road game in a mere 3 days.
Youngstown State is just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 on the road and are losing be close to 10 ppg on average away from home this season. Take Illinois-Chicago!
|12-29-19||Rockets v. Pelicans +5||112-127||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans +5 -110
The Pelicans are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Rockets. Houston is not going to be at full strength for this one. Russell Westbrook is sitting out (rest) in the second game of a back-to-back and they may also be without big man Clint Capela (questionable).
Either way I like New Orleans to keep this real close and likely win outright. Pelicans have really got things going of late. NO comes in having won 3 in a row and are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which includes 3 outright wins as a dog.
Rockets are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a favorite and 4-12 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Pelicans are also 35-17 ATS last 52 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take New Orleans!
|12-29-19||Thunder v. Raptors -2.5||98-97||Loss||-109||10 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Raptors -2½ -109
I really like the value here with the Raptors at basically a pick'em at home against the Thunder. I just feel like the books have over adjusted this line because Toronto is playing on no rest after a game in Boston last night. Raptors won that one without much trouble and had two days off before that game, so I don't think the no rest is a big deal.
Plus the Raptors are 13-4 at home and while OKC has been playing better of late, they are still a miserable 5-9 on the road. If anything the Thunder are going to be the tired team, as they are playing on the road in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 13-5 ATS last 18 when playing on no rest and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Toronto!
|12-29-19||Arkansas v. Indiana -5||71-64||Loss||-110||7 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Indiana -5 -110
I really like the value here with Indiana as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. While both teams come in with just 1 loss on the season, I've been way more impressed with Indiana's resume. Arkansas has only played one team inside the KenPom top 100 and that 93rd ranked Western Kentucky.
Razorbacks were fortunate to get a win last time out as they trailed by 5 against Valpo last before squeaking out a 72-68 victory. Indiana's only loss is at Wisconsin. They are 9-0 at home and one of those was a 16-point win over a good FSU team.
Hoosiers have done an excellent job scoring in the paint and are one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line (averaging 20 made free throws per game). I just don't think the Razorbacks are built to slow them down and wouldn't be shocked if this thing turned into a blowout. Take Indiana!
|12-29-19||Rhode Island v. Middle Tennessee +6.5||89-62||Loss||-110||5 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Middle Tennessee +6½ -110
Easy play here with the Blue Raiders catching what I feel is a big number at home against Rhode Island. This is a big flat spot for Rhode Island coming out of their Christmas break on the road after a lengthy layoff against a hungry Middle Tennessee team. One in which they might have a hard time getting up with the Blue Raiders just 4-9 overall and a mere 1-8 in their last 9.
Last time out Middle Tennessee nearly won outright as a 4-point dog against St Bonaventure, falling to the Bonnies by a final score of 66-65. That's worth noting, as the Blue Raiders are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after playing their previous game as a home dog. Rhode Island is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Middle Tennessee!
|12-28-19||Suns v. Kings UNDER 222||112-110||Push||0||11 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Kings under 222 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA matchup that has the Kings hosting the Suns. Just went Sacramento was starting to pick up the pace with De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley back from injuries, both players are hurt once again and out for this game.
Kings are going to have to go back to slowing things down and Phoenix figures to be looking to slow the pace as well, as they will be in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in Golden State.
UNDER is 15-5 in the Suns last 20 road games against division opponents and 21-9 in the Kings last 30 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 5 day stretch. Take the UNDER 222!
|12-28-19||Northern Arizona +7.5 v. Montana||Top||72-79||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Arizona +7½ -110
I love the value here with Northern Arizona as a near double-digit dog at Montana. The Lumberjacks come into this game at 6-3 and have covered 4 straight, while the Grizzlies are a mere 4-7 and 3-6 in their last 9.
Montana is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Grizzlies come in scoring just 64.8 ppg and are shooting just 425 from the field and 29% from long distance.
Northern Arizona averages 75.6 ppg and one thing I love about the Lumberjacks is how they get to the free throw line. They are one of the best in the country at doing so and Montana is one of the worst at sending opponents to the charity line. Grizzlies opponents are averaging 15 made free throws a game against them.
Lumberjacks are 5-1 ATS last 6 times they have been listed as a road dog. Also underdogs with a winning record who have beaten the spread by 30 or more points in their last 3 games and playing a team with a losing record are 23-7 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-28-19||Hawks +10 v. Bulls||81-116||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Hawks +10 -110
I like the value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Bulls. I just think we are seeing Chicago get a little too much love due to the fact the Hawks won't have the services of their best player in Trea Young.
However, the Bulls could be missing two of their top players, as both Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr are listed as questionable. Chicago is also a team that simply can't be trusted to lay this kind of number against any team.
Especially at home. Bulls are just 14-30 ATS last 44 home games. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS last 18 times they have played at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Hawks are 6-2 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 30-16 ATS last 46 as an underdog of 10 or more. Take Atlanta!
|12-28-19||NC-Wilmington v. Delaware -11.5||68-82||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Delaware -11½ -110
Easy play here on the Blue Hens laying double-digits at home against the Seahawks. These two teams have played almost the same strength of schedule, yet Delaware is sitting at 10-3 and Wilmington is a mere 5-8.
Even more important here is the home/away splits. The Blue Hens are a perfect 6-0 at home where they are scoring 78.8 ppg. The Seahawks are 1-5 away from home and scoring a miserable 57.8 ppg on the road this season. Delaware has one of the best scorers in the country in Nate Darling, who is currently 16th in the nation at 21.4 ppg.
Wilmington is a mere 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 1-7-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog. Take Delaware!
|12-28-19||Northern Colorado v. Portland State +3||65-69||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland State +3 -115
Easy play here on the Vikings as a home dog against Northern Colorado. Portland State is 3-1 on their home floor and have won 3 of their last 4 overall, including a 76-66 win last time out at Loyola-Marymount as a 3.5-point dog. Covering has not been a problem for the Vikings, who are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
The Bears come in having won 4 straight, but that's actually a positive here, as Northern Colorado is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having won 4 or more games in a row.
Look for the Vikings to torment the Bears on the offensive glass. Northern Colorado is vulnerable in that department and Portland State ranks 6th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Vikings are also 9-2 ATS last 11 games at home and 7-0-1 ATS last 8 games played on Saturday. Take Portland State!
|12-27-19||76ers -2.5 v. Magic||Top||97-98||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on 76ers -2½ -110
I think the books have made a huge mistake here with the 76ers basically at a pick'em on the road against the Magic. I get Philadelphia has had their struggles on the road and are coming off a massive win over the Bucks on Christmas Day, but I just don't see them having much trouble with Orlando.
It would be one thing if the Magic were playing well, but they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games and only covered twice in their last 7 games. Not to mention Orlando is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games in the month of December and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.
Another key thing here is revenge. Magic embarrassed the 76ers 112-97 at home back in November. That actually sets up a very profitable system on Philadelphia. Favorites revenging a road loss of 10 or more and off a home win by 10 or more are 62-28 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Philadelphia!
|12-26-19||Wolves v. Kings -4||105-104||Loss||-110||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Kings -4 -110
Sacramento is definitely worth a look here laying a short number at home against the slumping Timberwolves. Minnesota comes into this game having lost 11 straight and may once again be without big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who has missed the last 4 and is listed as questionable.
Either way the Timberwolves can't be trusted as a small road dog and this Kings team is one that I think is one to watch out for. While Sacramento has lost all 4 games since De'Aaron Fox returned from injury, he's shown flashes of being 100% back. He had a career-high 31 points in their most recent loss to the Rockets.
Minnesota is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as an underdog, 1-5-1 ATS last 7 on the road and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Sacramento!
|12-26-19||Knicks v. Nets -7||94-82||Loss||-109||15 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nets -7 -109
I got no problem laying the points with Brooklyn at home against the Knicks. The Nets continue to play without Kyrie Irving, but have done just fine without him. If anything, it's had Brooklyn repeatedly showing great value in his absence.
Nets have won 12 of 18 with Irving sidelined and are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games, including a sizzling 8-3 ATS run over their last 11. The Knicks showed some life after making a coaching change, but reverted right back to their losing ways with 3 straight losses and 3 non-covers in their last 3 games.
New York simply doesn't have the talent to win many games, especially with their opponent motivated, which Brooklyn should be having had 4 days off. Defense is also a big problem for the Knicks, as they are giving up 112.7 ppg on the season and 120.8 ppg in their last 5. Knicks two most recent losses were at home and they are just 2-12 ATS last 14 after 2 straight home defeats. Take Brooklyn!
|12-25-19||Georgia Tech v. Hawaii +3||70-53||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Hawaii +3 -110
The Rainbow Warriors are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Yellow Jackets in their Christmas Day matchup in the Diamond Head Classic. Hawaii has such a huge advantage here with this game being played at home, especially with both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Rainbow Warriors have gone 8-1 SU at home this season, while the Yellow Jackets are just 5-6 overall and 2-3 away from home. In Hawaii's last game they lost to No. 21 Washington by just 11-points and that was with their leading scorer, Eddie Stansberry, scoring just 5 points on a dreadful 1-17 shooting (all 3-pointers).
Georgia Tech is a mere 4-9 ATS last 13 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Rainbow Warriors are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS last 8 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Hawaii!
|12-25-19||Bucks v. 76ers +3.5||Top||109-121||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Christmas Day GAME OF THE YEAR on 76ers +3½ -105
I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Bucks. As difficult as it may be to bet against Milwaukee right now, I just think the price is too good with the 76ers as a home dog.
I really think Philadelphia is going to win this game. The 76ers definitely have the talent to go toe to toe with the Bucks, but more importantly they have the size to give Milwaukee trouble. Not to mention the 76ers have one of the league's best home court advantages. Philadelphia is 15-2 SU at home, where they are outscoring teams by 9.7 ppg.
76ers are 26-9 ATS last 35 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a home dog. Bucks on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Philadelphia!
|12-25-19||Celtics v. Raptors +3.5||118-102||Loss||-105||12 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA - Celtics/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -105
I'll gladly take my chances here with Toronto as a home dog against the Celtics in the first of five NBA games on Christmas Day. The Raptors are going to be without one of their best players in Pascal Siakam, which on paper looks like a big blow given that Siakam leads the team in scoring at 25.1 ppg.
However, he's missed the last 3 and Toronto has not missed a beat. Raptors secured wins over both the Wizards and Mavs at home before losing in overtime at Indiana against a red-hot Pacers team. Boston comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-2 over their last 9, but are just the same team on the road as they are at home.
Celtics are just 8-6 on the road compared to 12-1 at home. Toronto on the other hand is a dominant 13-3 at home this season. Raptors don't just win at home, they are 15-6-1 ATS last 21 at home and are 5-1-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home dog. Take Toronto!
|12-23-19||Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers||102-94||Win||100||15 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pelicans +6½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans. It's been a really rough go of things for New Orleans to start out the season, but they have shown some signs of turning the corner. They snapped their 13-game skid with a win at Minnesota last week and each of their last two losses have come by 7 or fewer points.
Portland has won 4 straight, but it's nothing to get all that excited about. Their 4 wins have come against the Suns, Warriors, Magic and Timberwolves. Their win over Phoenix came with the Suns missing Booker and was before Ayton returned. Golden State is garbage, Orlando was playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and Minnesota was without Towns. Take New Orleans!
|12-23-19||Jazz +5 v. Heat||104-107||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jazz +5 -110
I like the value here with Utah as a decently priced road dog against the Heat. The Jazz come in having won 5 in a row and are finally figuring out how to close out games. Utah will be without starting point guard Mike Conley, but they posted one of their better offensive performances without him in their last game and have scored 109 or more in all 5 wins.
Utah is also well rested. This will be just their 4th game since Dec. 13th. It's been a very profitable spot to back the Jazz, as they are 29-13 (69%) when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day stretch. Take Utah!
|12-23-19||Hawks +1.5 v. Cavs||118-121||Loss||-105||18 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +1½ -105
I really like the value here with Atlanta getting points on the road against the Cavs. Cleveland just can't be trusted laying points. Just two games ago they failed to cover as a mere 2.5-point favorite against the Hornets.
Any time the Cavs get matched up against another bad team they tend to underperform. Cleveland is a mere 21-48 ATS last 69 at home against a team with a losing road record. They are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Also, Hawks should be getting a big boost here with the return of John Collins from his 25-game suspension. In the 5 games Hollins played he averaged 17.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 2.0 blocks. Take Atlanta!
|12-23-19||Long Beach State v. Seattle University -5||57-79||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle University -5 -109
The Redhawks are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the 49ers. Big bounce back spot for Seattle after they were embarrassed on their home floor by Florida A&M as a 13.5-point favorite. I still like what I've seen overall from the 49ers and this Long Beach State team is one they can handle with ease.
49ers have played 8 of their first 13 games on the road and are 1-7 and getting outscored by 15.8 ppg. It's almost the exact opposite for Seattle, who even after that loss to Florida A&M are still outscoring teams at home 81.8 to 67.5 ppg. You have one team that is scoring 80+ games at home and one giving up 80+ ppg on the road. I just don't think the number here has been set high enough. Take Seattle!
|12-22-19||Nuggets +7 v. Lakers||128-104||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
4* NBA - LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER on Nuggets +7 -105
Big time value here with Denver here as a near double-digit dog against the Lakers. I just think LA is being way overpriced in this spot, as the perception is that with the Lakers coming off back-to-back losses there's no way they can lose 3 straight. They might not, but winning by 8 or more against a really good Denver team is asking a lot.
Note that the Nuggets are coming in playing some of their best ball, as they have won 5 straight. Lakers are also a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record and are 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|12-22-19||Pacers +8 v. Bucks||89-117||Loss||-115||10 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - Central Div PLAY OF THE WEEK on Pacers +8 -115
I like the value here with Indiana catching a big number on the road against the Bucks. As difficult as it is to bet against Milwaukee with how well they have been playing, I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Pacers in this spot.
This is definitely a good spot to fade the Bucks, as they will be playing on no rest after a game yesterday in New York. It's also their 3rd game in 4 days. Indiana on the other hand is well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Pacers are also coming in having won and covered 5 straight games.
Lastly, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off two straight covers as a favorite are just 8-25 (24%) ATS if facing an opponent off a home win where they scored 110 or more points. Take Indiana!
|12-22-19||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. Mercer||65-50||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Underdog ATS HEAVY HITTER on Florida Atlantic +3½ -107
The Owls are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Bears. I just think we are seeing Mercer get a little too much love off their close call and cover at home against Furman last time out. Bears are still just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
FAU comes in having won 3 straight and are 5-1 over their last 6. Owls have a really good player in Jailyn Ingram who seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. FAU has the better offensive and better defensive numbers and I'm confident they win this game outright.
Mercer is a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 home games off a straight up loss, 3-7 ATS last 10 home games overall and 1-8 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take FAU!
|12-22-19||New Mexico State +5.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||58-52||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Mexico State +5½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State comes in at 8-2, but a big reason for that is the schedule. The Bulldogs best win is a neutral site victory against Kansas State. They just struggled to put away Radford in their last game and recently lost at home to Louisiana Tech.
New Mexico State has gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, but are off a win and cover against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Aggies debuted UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard in that game and A.J. Harris, who has been out all year could be back for this one.
Also, I like the matchup here. Aggies are really good at forcing their opponents into making mistakes. They are averaging 15 forced turnovers a game and Mississippi State ranks 327th in turnover rate. New Mexico State is also a great offensive rebounding team (32nd nationally) and Bulldogs rank a mere 232nd in defensive rebound rate.
Mississippi State is also just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they come into a game having won 2 of their last 3. Take New Mexico State!
|12-21-19||CS Bakersfield -2.5 v. Cal Poly||72-50||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS Bakersfield/Cal Poly ATS Winner on CS Bakersfield -2½ -109
I like the value here with CS-Bakersfield as a small road favorite against Cal Poly. Neither team is all that great, but I do give the edge here to the Roadrunners. A big reason for that is they should dominate the glass. Bakersfield ranks 15th in offensive rebound rate and 45th on defense. Cal Poly is one of the worst teams in the country on the board.
The Mustangs also can't score and don't exactly defend all that great either Cal Poly is scoring just 63.6 ppg and giving up 72.3 ppg. Mustangs are 0-8 ATS last 8 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and just 2-9 ATS last 2 seasons at home. Take CS-Bakersfield!
|12-21-19||Clippers v. Spurs +6||134-109||Loss||-109||12 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA - Prime Time ATS NO-BRAINER on Spurs +6 -109
I like the value here with the Spurs getting a decent number at home against the Clippers. With LA coming off that meltdown at home to the Rockets on Thursday, I think a lot of people are just expecting the Clippers to bounce back with a big effort here. While they are likely to play hard, I don't think they are just going to run over the Spurs.
San Antonio has been playing much better of late with 4 wins in their last 6 and could have easily won both games they lost, especially a 2-point setback at Houston where they had a 25-point lead. Spurs won't be intimidated by LA, as they already knocked off the Clippers at home 107-97 earlier this season.
Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 home games in the month of December and 9-2 ATS last 11 times they have been a home dog. Take San Antonio!
|12-21-19||Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +2.5||69-66||Loss||-110||9 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Lafayette/Little Rock ATS Winner on UL - Lafayette +2½ -110
I'll take the Ragin' Cajuns and the points as they get ready to host Little Rock Saturday night. I just don't think Lafayette should be getting points at home. Little-Rock has won their last t2, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite in a mere 1-point win at ULM on Thursday and now must play another road game on just 1-day of rest.
Ragin' Cajuns have lost their last 3, but all 3 of those were true road games. Lafayette is a perfect 4-0 at home where they are absolutely lighting up the scoreboard with 87.7 ppg on 49% shooting. Little Rock only scored 65.0 ppg away from home and I just don't see them keeping pace in this one.
Little Rock is 5-14 ATS last 19 conference games and Ragin Cajuns are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a loss by 10 or more. Take Lafayette!
|12-21-19||Eastern Illinois v. Grand Canyon -2.5||63-85||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Illinois/Grand Canyon ATS Winner on Grand Canyon -2½ -110
I like the value here with the Antelopes as a small home favorite against the Panthers. Good spot here to jump on Grand Canyon at home after losing their last 3. No real shocker that they did as they came against better teams in Liberty, Northern Iowa and New Mexico.
Key here is the bad spot for Eastern Illinois, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a week span. They are also coming off a max effort against rival Western Illinois, making them prime for a letdown. Eastern Illinois is also just 14-29 ATS last 43 after covering 3 straight. Take Grand Canyon!
|12-21-19||St Bonaventure -3.5 v. Middle Tennessee||66-65||Loss||-105||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -3½ -105
Easy play here on the Bonnies as a small road favorite against the Blue Raiders. St Bonaventure has been on an absolute tear of late. Bonnies come in having won 6 straight and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lined games.
It's the exact opposite for Middle Tennessee, who has lost 7 of their last 8 and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in this stretch. Every loss in this poor run has come by double-digits. Blue Raiders are scoring 75.2 ppg, which looks good, but is actually less than what their opponents have given up on average. I just think they will have a real tough time scoring here against a St Bonaventure defense that is holding opponents to 61.8 ppg, 40% from the field and 30% from deep. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-21-19||North Carolina v. UCLA +4.5||74-64||Loss||-109||5 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCLA +4½ -109
I really like the value here with UCLA getting points against the Tar Heels in their neutral site showdown in Las Vegas. This is just as bad a North Carolina team as I can remember and things have really took a turn for the worse with star freshman Cole Anthony sidelined. Tar Heels have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
I get the Bruins haven't been all that impressive in their own right, but I do feel like they are the better team. I also think they got an edge here having not played in a week, while UNC is a long way from home and playing on just 2 days rest after laying it all on the line at Gonzaga Wednesday.
Tar Heels just keep getting overvalued by the books because of how big a name they are. UNC is a mere 1-7 ATS in games where they are listed as the favorite and 0-4 ATS off a cover. Take UCLA!
|12-21-19||Fairfield +7 v. Oakland||61-59||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Fairfield +7 -110
The Stags are definitely worth a look at this price in Saturday's matchup at Oakland. Fairfield comes into this game with a less than impressive 2-7 SU record and I think it has them showing value.
The Stags are really unlucky to be sitting here with just 2 wins. Only one of their 7 losses have come by more than 11 points and 3 have been by 4 or fewer. They not only capable of covering here against Oakland, but winning this game outright. The Golden Grizzlies have lost 5 of 6 and have to be running on fumes after playing 6 straight away from home.
Also both of these teams have played at Maryland and while both lost, the Stags lost by just 19, while the Golden Grizzlies fell by 30. Take Fairfield!
|12-21-19||Illinois v. Missouri +4.5||56-63||Win||100||3 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Illinois/Missouri ATS Winner on Missouri +4½ -110
I like Missouri at this price as they get ready to take on Illinois at the Scottrade Center in St Louis. The Tigers really need this game to boost their non-conference resume, as they have came up short in their other big games against Xavier, Butler and Oklahoma.
Missouri has won and covered each of their last two, so they come in with some momentum. Illinois has gotten off to a strong 8-3 start with a big home win over Michigan, but their only win away from home against Grand Canyon and even that was a less than impressive showing.
Favorite has covered just once in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and Neutral court favorites who are averaging 78+ ppg and facing a team that scores 63-67 ppg are just 10-33 ATS (23%) if off a game where they held an opponent to 55 or less. Take Missouri!