|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-29-20||NC-Greensboro -2.5 v. Chattanooga||72-74||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110
The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance.
The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits.
Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro!
|02-29-20||Florida State v. Clemson +3.5||69-70||Win||100||5 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Clemson +3½ -105
I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.
I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season.
Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson!
|02-29-20||Pittsburgh v. NC State -8||73-77||Loss||-109||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109
I got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC.
With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in.
During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack.
The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State!
|02-29-20||Texas v. Texas Tech UNDER 127||68-58||Win||100||3 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Texas/Texas Tech under 127 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between rivals Texas Tech and Texas. These two teams played once already this season, earlier this month, and combined for just 119 points.
The Red Raiders were able to limit the Longhorns to just 57 points on 36% shooting on the road. It figures to be even harder for Texas to score in Lubbock, as the Longhorns only average 60.6 ppg on 40% shooting away from home.
Also the one big weakness for Tech's defense is fouling and sending their opponents to the free throw line. Texas is one of the worst in the country in getting to the foul line (only had 8 free throw attempts at home against the Red Raiders). Without those freebies it's really hard to score against this Texas Tech defense, which is only giving up 59.3 ppg aon 39% shooting at home.
UNDER is 6-0 in the Longhorns last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 9-0 this season when revenging a loss and 8-0 last two seasons when revening a loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!
|02-28-20||Kings +4 v. Grizzlies||Top||104-101||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109
I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright.
Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.
I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento!
|02-28-20||Davidson v. Dayton UNDER 141||67-82||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Davidson/Dayton under 141 -110
I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's A-10 showdown between Dayton and Davidson. These are the top two offensive teams in the A-10 and I think it has the books inflating the number on the total. We have seen them set the bar too high in Dayton games here of late, as the UNDER is 5-2 in the Flyers last 7 games.
Both of these teams can play some defense. Both rank in the top half of the conference in defensive efficiency. Given the spotlight of this game with it being arguably the best game on the board Friday and it being the only meeting between these two programs, I think both teams are going to bring it defensively.
UNDER is 14-5-3 in Davidson's last 22 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 7-2-2 in their last 11 as a dog. UNDER is also 15-5 in Dayton's last 20 at home after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls. Take the UNDER!
|02-27-20||Jacksonville State +3 v. Tennessee State||Top||55-65||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110
I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall.
They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%.
Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State!
|02-27-20||Temple v. Wichita State OVER 136||69-72||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Temple/Wichita State over 136 -110
The OVER is definitely worth a look here between the Owls and Shockers. These two played to a final score of just 118 earlier this season. The total for that game was 136.5. The fact that the books are setting the same mark in the rematch, tells you they think that first game was a bit of a fluke.
I completely agree. Wichita State scored just 53 points in an outright loss as a 4-point favorite. The Shockers shot terrible in that game. Largely because they were playing their second straight on the road with just 2 days of rest and the last game went to double-overtime. Not to mention a massive game on deck at home against Houston.
Temple is giving up 72.6 ppg in league play and 78.0 ppg over their last 5. OVER has cashed in 4 of their last 6 games and is 6-1 in the Owls last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Over is also 9-3 in the Shockers last 12 as a home favorite. Take the OVER 136!
|02-27-20||Eastern Kentucky v. Murray State UNDER 150||62-74||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Eastern Kentucky/Murray State under 150 -110
The books have been off of their game with the totals for both of these teams. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 for Eastern Kentucky and 8 of the last 9 for Murray State. I just think because the Racers are such a good team with such a potent offense, the books inflate the over knowing that's where they public will be drawn.
What they overlook is how good this Murray State team is defensively. The Racers are tops in the Ohio Valley in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top two of both 3-point and 2-point percentage defense. They have allowed 67.1 ppg in conference games this season, but are allowing just 62.8 ppg in their last 5 and a mere 58.1 ppg at home. I just don't see this game getting into the 150's. Take the UNDER!
|02-27-20||Knicks +6.5 v. 76ers||106-115||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110
I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.
He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright.
Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York!
|02-26-20||Clippers -5.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns.
Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.
Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!
|02-26-20||Duquesne v. St Bonaventure UNDER 136.5||81-77||Loss||-115||19 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Duquesne/St Bonaventure under 136½ -115
The UNDER is worth a look here between St Bonaventure and Duquesne. Most will be looking to take the OVER at this price, as these two teams combined for 163 points earlier this month. I just don't see them coming close to that output.
The two couldn't miss from deep. The Bonnies shot 10 of 21 (48%) and the Dukes were 14 of 34 (41%). Keep in mind that the meetings between these two teams last year both finished with fewer than 120 points.
UNDER is 22-12 in St. Bonaventure's last 34 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 30-15 in Duquesne's last 45 on the road when playing a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games at least 15 games into the season. Under is also 11-4 in the Bonnies last 15 ats a home favorite and 8-3 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|02-26-20||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +3.5||Top||56-53||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109
I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road.
The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points.
This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday.
Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-26-20||Rhode Island v. Fordham UNDER 123.5||76-75||Loss||-110||10 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island/Fordham under 123½ -110
I just don't see these two teams combining for more than 120 points. It's going to be real tough here for Fordham to score. Rhode Island is outstanding at defending the 3-pointer and Fordham is dead last in the A-10 in 2-point shooting percentage.
In last year's lone meeting between these two teams, both shot under 35% from the field. Fordham comes in having failed to reach 60 points in a game in 8 straight. The Rams are averaging a mere 50.8 ppg in their last 5. They have also been locking down defensively, as they only give up 62.8 ppg in league play.
UNDER is 10-3 in Fordham's last 13 conference games, 12-3 in their last 15 at home and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 55 or less in a conference game. Take the UNDER!
|02-25-20||Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230.5||108-97||Loss||-109||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Raptors over 230½ -109
I really like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's big Eastern Conference matchup that has the Raptors hosting the Bucks. I just don't think the number here is anywhere close to what it needs to be at.
These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. Milwaukee is 2nd in offensive efficiency and the Raptors are T-8th. Toronto is also a much better offensive team at home. Raptors average 113.3 ppg on the season, but that jumps to 117.2 ppg at home.
Both of these teams also love to run. Bucks are No. 1 in the NBA in pace of play and Raptors are 12th. Both really like to get out in run. Toronto is No. 1 in the NBA in fast break points and Bucks are No. 2. Not to mention both teams are averaging 14 made 3-pointers per game.
OVER is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 at home off a home win and 14-5-1 in Bucks last 20 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games. Take the OVER!
|02-25-20||TCU +3.5 v. Iowa State||Top||59-65||Loss||-110||18 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on TCU +3½ -110
I love the value here with TCU as a small road dog against the Cyclones. Iowa State followed up a 20-point loss at Kansas last Monday with a 30-point loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones are now 1-3 SU and ATS since losing their best player and potential NBA lottery pick Tyrese Haliburton.
In the 3 games they haven't covered they have failed to do so by an average of 16.0 ppg. There's definitely reason to believe it could get ugly for ISU, even at home. Haliburton had a triple double (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a loss at TCU earlier this season.
TCU may only have a couple more wins in Big 12 play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, most recently knocking off a ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. Horned Frogs will be coming into this one with a lot of confidence.
Cyclones are 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record. Take TCU!
|02-25-20||Akron v. Bowling Green +1.5||60-78||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bowling Green +1½ -109
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Zips. No way should Bowling Green by getting points at home in this one. Akron is simply overvalued having won 5 straight. The Falcons are 12-1 on their home floor and come in playing well with 11 wins in their last 13 games.
It just so happens one of those was a double-digit loss at Akron. Revenge will also be a key factor here in favor of Bowling Green. Last time out the Falcons didn't play their best, but still found a way to beat a good Ohio team 62-61. That win is another positive. Falcons are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a home conference win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||112-123||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Knicks +14 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a massive road dog against Houston. The books have no choice here but to inflate the number on New York with how well the Rockets have looked out of the break, beating the Warriors by 30 on the road and then going to Utah and beating the Jazz by 10.
As good as Houston is playing, this is a big flat spot playing on just 1-day of rest after a pretty big game at Utah. Knicks are definitely not a team to get excited to play. Rockets have to feel like they can just go through the motions and win this game.
Knicks have been all over the place. They won 4 in a row only to lose their next 3. I think they show up in this one, as they are playing only their 2nd game back from the break and are on a full two days of rest.
Knicks are 8-1 ATS this season when playing a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and Houston is just 25-43 (37%) ATS last 68 times they have been a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take New York!
|02-24-20||West Virginia -5 v. Texas||Top||57-67||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -5 -109
I love the value here with West Virginia laying a small number on the road against Texas. The Big 12 has 2 elite teams in Baylor and Kansas, two top tier squads in West Virginia and Texas Tech and then a bunch of mediocre to bad teams. I think the books have struggled to price teams like the Mountaineers high enough in road games.
It's going to take a near perfect game for Texas to win this contest. They haven't beat one of the top 4 teams yet. They are 6-8 in league play with their wins coming against Kansas State, Oklahoma St, TCU and ISU. The Horned Frogs, who are 6-8, are the only one of those 4 with a Big 12 mark better than 4-10.
Texas has lost at home to baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma in Big 12 play. I know they have won two straight, but I don't think playing at home will be enough. West Virginia is just too good. Longhorns are 5-15 ATS last 20 home games off a win and 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been off two or more wins. Take West Virginia!
|02-23-20||Pacers +6 v. Raptors||81-127||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +6 -115
I like the value here with the Pacers catching a decent number on the road against the Raptors. Indiana went into the All-Star break with a 118-111 win at home against the Bucks and then came back with a 106-98 win and cover at New York. I look for the Pacers to stay hot in a game you know they had circled.
These two teams played twice in a 3-day stretch from Feb. 5-7. Toronto won both games. Indiana had their chances in both. They led most of the way in a gut-wrenching 118-119 loss at Toronto on Feb. 5 and two days later lost another close game at home 106-115. Needless to say the Pacers will have revenge on their mind in this one.
Oladipo might not go for Indiana, as he's listed as doubtful. That's a big loss on paper, but he's not played like the All-Star we remember in his limited time back from injury. Pacers were playing better without him. If anything his injury has added value here. Take Indiana!
|02-23-20||Canisius +3.5 v. Manhattan||57-56||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Canisius +3½ -108
I really like this price with the Canisius as a small road dog against the Jaspers. No one is going to want to back the Golden Griffins right now, as they have lost 4 straight and 7 of 4 overall. Thing is, it's not going much better for Manhattan, who has lost 3 straight and failed to cover 7 of their last 10 overall.
This has been the money spot for the Griffins, who are 9-1 ATS last 10 times they have been on the road with a total in the 130's. Canisius is also 12-3-2 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Road team has gone 20-5-1 ATS last 26 games in this series with the underdog cashing in 4 of the last 5. Take Canisius!
|02-23-20||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||Top||63-67||Loss||-109||3 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Temple -2½ -109
The Owls are definitely worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Temple has been playing much better here of late. The Owls have won 4 of 6 and are fresh off a double-OT win at home against UConn.
I just think we are getting some value with Temple because of their losing mark of 6-7 in the AAC. It's really not asking much for the Owls to win here by a few points. ECU has lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They just played a brutal 3 game stretch in 8 days against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Memphis.
These two already played once this season and the Owls won by 12 at home. Temple has covered 5 straight games vs a losing straight up record. The favorites has also covered 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Temple!
|02-22-20||Northern Colorado v. Idaho State +9.5||85-72||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Idaho State +9½ -110
I really like the value here with the Bengals as a near double-digit home dog against Northern Colorado. The Bears come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They are also sitting T-2nd in the Big Sky at 11-4, while Idaho State is tied for last in the league with a mark of just 3-12.
Key here is the Bengals really matchup well with Northern Colorado. Bears have struggled against teams who are strong offensive rebounding teams. Idaho State is No. 3 in that department in the Big Sky. Bengals also defend the 3-ball at a high rate and that's a big part of the Northern Colorado offensive attack. Idaho State also struggles with turnovers and Bears are 296th in forcing mistakes.
Also a bit of a letdown spot for Northern Colorado, who is a mere 9-22 ATS last 31 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. Take Idaho State!
|02-22-20||Virginia Tech +17 v. Duke||Top||64-88||Loss||-110||20 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +17 -110
I love the value here with Virginia Tech catching a massive number on the road against the Blue Devils. Hokies are coming off a 3OT game against Miami on Wednesday, but they will be able to recover enough in 3 days to give a max effort here against Duke.
I'm sure most will be counting on the Blue Devils to bounce back with a big game after not leading for a single second in a 22-point loss at NC State. While I have little doubt that Duke will win this game outright, I don't see them pulling away.
One thing that the Blue Devils love to do is get out and run off of turnovers. Those chances will be extremely limited in this one. Virginia Tech is 5th best in the country in offensive turnover rate. Duke is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-22-20||Nets v. Hornets UNDER 212.5||115-86||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT on Nets/Hornets under 212½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Nets. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and are in the bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. With the game on their home floor they should be able to play the game closer to their tempo.
As for the Nets, they are not only playing better without Kyrie Irving this year, they are a much better defensive team when Irving isn't on the floor. With the way their offense has struggled here of late, scoring 106 or fewer in 3 straight, this sets up to be a defensive battle that could see both teams fail to reach the century mark.
UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two in Charlotte and is 6-2 in the Hornets last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 19-7 in Brooklyn's last 26 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 139||59-65||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Florida/Kentucky under 139 -114
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's big SEC showdown between No. 10 Kentucky and Florida. The books just can't seem to get the number right on the total when these two face off. Since Mike White took over at Florida the UNDER has cashed in 6 of 8 games.
I don't see them eclipsing the mark in this one. Both of these teams are playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Florida just held Arkansas to 59 in their last game and are giving up just 63.5 ppg over their last 4. Kentucky's opponents are shooting a mere 38% against them in SEC play and the Wildcats are allowing just 62.8 ppg at home on the season.
Kentucky has won 5 straight and when they are on a run like this their games tend to go UNDER. In fact, UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 when playing on a winning streak of 5 or more. UNDER is also 10-2 in Gators last 12 on the road with a total of 130 to 139.5. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Georgia -2.5 v. Vanderbilt||80-78||Loss||-109||17 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Commodores. Georgia snapped their recent skid in style, knocking off Auburn 65-55 Wednesday. I look for the Bulldogs to carry that momentum into this one against a struggling Vanderbilt team.
Commodores suffered their 4th straight loss and fell to 1-12 in SEC play with a heartbreaking 61-65 loss at Tennessee. Vanderbilt just can't score at a high enough rate to be taken seriously. They have shot 40% or worse from the field in 4 straight and 11 of 12 games overall. It doesn't matter if you are home or away. You aren't going to win often if you can't shoot at least 40% from the field.
Commodores are a mere 1-8 ATS at home off a conference road loss, 3-12 ATS last 15 conference home games overall and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take Georgia!
|02-22-20||SMU +1.5 v. Tulsa||57-79||Loss||-108||14 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on SMU +1½ -108
The Mustangs are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Hurricane. This is a prime bounce back spot for SMU, coming off an ugly loss at Tulane, who even with the win is still dead last in the AAC at 3-11.
Note it wasn't a huge surprise to see them come out flat in that game, as they were only a few days removed from a dramatic 73-72 overtime win at home against Houston. The same Cougars team that just annihilated Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday.
I just don't see the Golden Hurricane being able to keep pace with this juggernaut of an offense that SMU sends out. Especially when the Mustangs figure to clean up on the offensive glass when they do miss. Mustangs are 20th in offensive rebounding. Tulsa is 210 in defensive rebounding.
Mustangs are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a dog, while Golden Hurricane are 7-15 ATS last 22 as a home favorite. Road team has also gone a staggering 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take SMU!
|02-22-20||Virginia v. Pittsburgh UNDER 112||59-56||Loss||-115||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Virginia/Pittsburgh under 112 -115
The UNDER is worth a look here in Saturday's ACC matchup that has Pitt hosting Virginia. It's no secret that the Cavaliers are a strong defensive team. The key here is the matchup. Virginia does an outstanding job of forcing team to beat them with jump shots. They just don't give you many easy looks at the rim.
Shooting is not a strength of the Panthers, especially from deep. Pitt ranks a miserable 329th in the country in 3-point percentage. Last year the Panthers could only muster 49 points in a loss at Virginia. The previous year they only scored 37 at home. I think getting to 50 in this one will be a struggle.
Virginia's offense is nothing to write home about either and the Cavaliers only average 56.2 ppg away from home this season and are scoring just 58.9 ppg in ACC play.
UNDER is 17-5 in Pitt's last 22 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 9 at home off a road loss by 10 or more. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 129.5||64-61||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird Total ENFORCER on Kansas/Baylor under 129½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Saturday's massive Big 12 matchup between No. 3 Kansas and No. 1 Baylor. Not only is this a matchup of two Top 5 teams, but for Kansas they have to win to have any shot at the Big 12 title, as they already lost at home to the Bears earlier this season. This could also play a big part in a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance.
Either way, I'm confident both teams are going to show up for this one with everything they got. I With how strong these two are defensively, I just don't see them eclipsing 130 points. Baylor is No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency and KU is No. 2. These two only combined for 122 in their first meeting this season.
UNDER is 15-5 in Kansas' last 20 vs a team with a winning record and 8-2 in their last 10 when facing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. UNDER is also 8-0 in Jayhawks last 8 on the road when they come in having won 8 of their last 10. Take the UNDER!
|02-21-20||VCU v. St. Louis UNDER 133.5||62-80||Loss||-115||20 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on VCU/St. Louis under 133½ -115
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Friday's A-10 matchup that has the Billikens hosting VCU. I think we are going to see both of these teams come out with a big effort here to try and save their season. Both teams have struggled recently and have just 5-games left before the A-10 Tournament. It might not be enough, but 5 straight could get them in the conversation for the Big Dance.
Either way, I think this is going to be a low scoring game. VCU's offense has completely abandoned them here of late. It started with a mere 67 points against a bad George Mason defense, then they managed just 59 at Richmond and 61 at home against Dayton. Hard to see them snapping out of this funk on the road, against a St Louis team that needs their defense to play well to make up for their inefficiencies on offense.
UNDER has cashed in 12 of the last 16 home games for St Louis if they are off a game they didn't cover. It's also 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|02-21-20||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5||Top||68-75||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Horizon League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Oakland -3½ -109
I really like the value here with the Grizzlies laying a short number at home against Milwaukee. Oakland comes into this game ride a wave of momentum off back-to-back wins. The first time since early November that they strung two together two wins in a row.
There strong play really goes back to late January, which was about the same time that transfer Rashad Williams started to get comfortable with his new team. Williams didn't make his debut until Jan. 16. After averaging just 12 ppg in his first 3 games, Williams has exploded for 25.3 ppg in his last 6. He's only played 9 games and made 39 shots from behind the 3-point line. That's second most on the team, just 6 behind the leader.
I just don't think people realize how different a team Oakland is. They just look at their overall numbers and see a mediocre team that is 7-9 in a small conference like the Horizon. I just think with how they are playing and Milwaukee off a crushing 4-point loss at home to rival Green Bay, this price is way to low on the Grizzlies. Take Oakland!
|02-21-20||Mavs v. Magic UNDER 220.5||122-106||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs/Magic under 220½ -110
I like the value here with the UNDER between the Magic and Mavericks. Dallas has been better offensively than expected this year and it's why the OVER is 35-20 in their 55 games to this point. I just think the books have made the adjustments and now it's time to start looking the other way.
Getting a game to go over 220 with Orlando is not an easy task. I get they put up 116 and 135 points in their last two games before the break, but that was against the Pistons and Hawks. This is still the same team that had a stretch of 4 games where they didn't crack 100. Part of that is their lack of offensive playmakers, but even more so is their desire to play at a slow pace (3rd slowest).
Keep in mind these two teams played back in November and only combined for 213 points and that was with the Magic shooting 49% from the field (shoot 43.4% on the season).
Mavs rely on the 3-pointer (average 15 made 3's/game). UNDER is 8-1 in Orlando's last 9 home games vs a team who shoots 36% or better from deep. It's also 13-2 in Magic's last 15 at home in the 2nd half of the season vs strong teams (outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg). Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Santa Clara v. BYU UNDER 153.5||75-85||Loss||-110||13 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Santa Clara/BYU under 153½ -110
I really like the value with the UNDER in tonight's WCC action that has Santa Clara visiting Provo to take on the Cougars. There's going to be some scoring in this one, but nothing like what the number is suggesting.
Santa Clara is a team that is prone to foul trouble. They are 9th out of 10 in the WCC in defensive foul rate. Good news for them is BYU is the worst in the conference at getting to the free throw line and it's not close. When the Broncos have faced similar teams who struggle to get to the line, the games have been much lower scoring than anticipated. UNDER is 8-1 in Santa Clara's last 9 vs a team that's attempting 18 or fewer free throws a game at least 15+ games into the season.
Santa Clara also doesn't figure to score a ton in this one. The Broncos only average 67.5 ppg on the road, where they are shooting a miserable 40% from the field. In their last two games they failed to score more than 61 points. Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Michigan State v. Nebraska OVER 151||Top||86-65||Push||0||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Michigan State/Nebraska over 151 -110
This might seem like a big total for what figures to be a lopsided matchup between the Cornhuskers and Spartans. I don't think it's high enough. I look for these two to fly past the number.
I don't care how bad Michigan State is playing coming into this game, they aren't going to lose this game because they can't score. Nebraska just gave up 81 on their home floor to Wisconsin, who likes to play at a snails pace. In their last 5 games the Cornhuskers are giving up 80.8 ppg. A lot of that is bad defense, but it's part of the pace they like to play at, as they lead the Big Ten in tempo.
I know Nebraska's offense isn't great and Michigan State's defense is one of the top units in the Big Ten. I just don't see the Spartans being 100% locked in defensively with how easy it will be for them to score and just how much more talented they are. These two played last March to a combined score of 167 in a 91-76 Spartans win. I could see something similar here. Take the OVER!
|02-20-20||Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 211.5||103-93||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Hornets/Bulls under 211½ -110
I just look for the Bulls and Hornets to have a difficult time scoring enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. These two of the worst offensive teams in the league in terms of efficiency. In fact, both are tied for the 26th worst mark in offensive efficiency for the season.
Factor in the slow tempo that Charlotte likes to play at (ranks dead last in pace) and the laundry list of injuries that the Bulls are dealing with right now and it's just hard to see either offense doing a lot in this one. These two did just play a couple months ago (12/13) and that game finished with a mere 156 points, as Charlotte won 83-73. Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Ohio State v. Iowa OVER 143||76-85||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State/Iowa over 143 -105
I like the value with the OVER between Ohio State and Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off an extremely low-scoring game by their standards, as they won 58-55 at Minnesota on Sunday. The previous low for points scored by Iowa on the season was 67 in a win over Maryland.
As for the defense allowing 55, that's just not who the Hawkeyes are. Iowa is giving up 75 ppg in Big Ten play. I just think with the way the Hawks like to push the tempo and the likelihood that they shoot well at home, this thing is going to approach 150 points.
Ohio State should definitely score. Buckeyes are an excellent 3-point shooting team (No. 1 Big Ten) and Iowa gives up a ton of good looks from deep. The Hawks also offer little resistance inside. OVER is 4-1 in Iowa's last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 14-6 in Buckeyes last 20 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|02-19-20||Syracuse v. Louisville OVER 140||Top||66-90||Win||100||14 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - ACC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/Louisville over 140 -118
I absolutely love the OVER in Wednesday's ACC matchup between Syracuse and Louisville. These are two of the top teams in the conference in offensive efficiency. Duke leads the ACC with a 112.8 offensive efficiency rating. Louisville is No. 2 at 108.8 and Syracuse is No. 3 at 106.8. Notre Dame and FSU are the only other teams with a rating over 99.7.
You have to be the Cardinals are going to put up a bunch of points in this one. Louisville is averaging 77.2 ppg on 48% shooting from the field and 40% from deep at home this season. Cardinals are also Top 15 in the country in 3-point shooting pct. They should get a lot of good looks against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Teams that have played zone against Louisville have definitely paid the price this year.
Another thing is the Orange have not played well defensively away from home. It's why we have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Most recently losing at FSU 77-80.
Key here is Syracuse can score. They have proven that. They are scoring 75.2 ppg on the road this year and are averaging 76.8 ppg in their last 5, despite only shooting 40.6% from the field. Take the OVER!
|02-19-20||Michigan v. Rutgers -1||60-52||Loss||-115||14 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rutgers -1 -115
Rutgers is definitely worth a look at basically a pick'em on their home floor. How do you know back the Scarlet Knights at this price when they are 17-0 at home this season. Rutgers has lost 3 of their last 5 and needed OT to win at home over Northwestern, but are fresh off a big time 72-57 home win over Illinois.
Those that follow the Big Ten know that the Scarlet Knights are the real deal, but I don't think that's a perception shared across the country. Michigan on the other hand is a name brand and are making headlines with their recent play. Wolverines come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Michigan is better with Livers back in the mix, but I'm not sold on them being good enough to win on the road against a team like Rutgers. The Wolverines only true road wins all season have come against bottom feeders Nebraska and Northwestern. You take away those 3 wins in 3 days at Atlantis and they are just 2-5 away from home.
Rutgers also playing with revenge here from a close 6-point loss to Michigan in the first meeting. Scarlet Knights should feed off an electric home crowd. Take Rutgers!
|02-19-20||Wofford v. NC-Greensboro OVER 130.5||79-83||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wofford/NC-Greensboro over 130½ -114
I like the value here with the OVER at this low number. These two teams played once already this year and it ended up Wofford outscoring Greensboro 98-92 in double-overtime. The two extra periods didn't matter on the total. The game closed at a total of 128.5. It was 78-78 at the end of regulation.
I see no reason not to expect another high-scoring game in the rematch. These two teams both love to shoot 3-pointers. They hoisted up a combined 76 attempts in the first meeting. Both teams making 14. They both had at least 18 made free throws. I think both teams can get into a rhythm offensively when you have to similar styles like this. Take the OVER 130.5!
|02-18-20||Kentucky v. LSU OVER 145||Top||79-76||Win||100||15 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC Total PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kentucky/LSU over 145 -110
I absolutely love the OVER in tonight's late night SEC matchup between LSU and Kentucky. The Tigers have consistently been involved in high-scoring games. Each of their last 4 games have seen a combined score of 160 or more. In their last 9 conference games, only one has finished with fewer than 156 and that was 136 against Ole Miss, who is one of the worst offenses in the SEC and they like to play slow.
Kentucky can definitely score. While they did just play in a low-scoring game on Saturday, which saw 129 total points, that was against Ole Miss. Prior to that they had scored 77 or more in 3 straight games. Wildcats are going to do some damage here. LSU is 12th out of 14 SEC teams in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They are also 12th in forced turnovers at just 14.9%.
Kentucky has a solid defense, but they are playing on the road on a just two days of rest, so they aren't going to have the freshest of legs here. I also just don't think there's any slowing down the Tigers at the Maravich Assembly Center.
OVER is 8-1 in LSU's last 9 at home vs teams holding opponents to 42% or worse at least 15 games into the season. OVER is also 10-2 in the Tigers last 12 conference games overall. OVER is also 8-1 in Kentucky's last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Take the OVER!
|02-18-20||Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 133.5||67-76||Loss||-109||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern/Maryland under 133½ -109
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Tuesday's Big 10 matchup that has 1st place Maryland hosting last place Northwestern. Terps have won 8 straight to improve to 11-3 (only other team in Big 10 with fewer than 6 losses is Penn St.), while Wildcats have lost 9 in a row and are sitting at 1-13 in league play.
These two first met this season on Jan. 21. Northwestern jumped out to a 40-26 1st half lead, but ended up losing 77-66. While that game ended with 143 points, I'm confident the rematch will be a lot lower scoring.
Northwestern shot 50% from the field and 44% from deep in that game at home against the Terps. Chances of that repeating are slim. Wildcats are shooting just 40.8% overall in conference play. They ranked 13th in the conference in 2-point shooting.
I also don't see Maryland's offense going off in this one. This is big letdown spot for the Terps off that monster road win at Michigan State on Saturday. I see Maryland going thru the motions and could see this thing struggling to get to 125. Take the UNDER!
|02-18-20||Arkansas v. Florida -6||Top||59-73||Win||100||22 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st).
While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State.
I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others.
Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida!
|02-17-20||Xavier v. St. John's +2||Top||77-74||Loss||-109||7 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one.
Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play.
St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem.
Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's!
|02-16-20||Memphis v. Connecticut -4||61-64||Loss||-105||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut -4 -105
I like the value here with the Huskies laying a shot number at home against Memphis. UConn is just 4-7 in the AAC, but if you watch this team, especially here of late, you know that they are much better than their record. Huskies have lost 11 games this season, 9 of those by single-digits, including 3 overtime losses.
I think we are getting a steal here with them at this price. This is an absolutely brutal spot for Memphis, who lost a game they shouldn't have in Thursday's 86-92 overtime loss at Cincinnati. Not easy playing extra time on the road and then having just 2 days off before going back on the road against a quality opponent.
Memphis plays good defense and are solid on the boards, but that's not a concern here. UConn is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home vs good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or less at least 15 games into the season and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home vs teams who are outrebounding teams by 4+ boards/game. Huskies are also 21-10 ATS last 31 at home and 9-2 ATS last 11 when they have won 2 of their last 3. Take Connecticut!
|02-16-20||Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5||Top||58-55||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern.
Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road.
The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday.
Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota!
|02-15-20||Utah State -5 v. Fresno State||71-59||Win||100||15 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Utah State -5 -109
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Bulldogs. This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah State given how well they are playing right now. The Aggies come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They got a realistic shot here of finishing No. 2 in the MWC behind San Diego State.
As for Fresno State, they avoided a 3rd straight loss with a 84-78 OT win at San Jose State, but that's not exactly a positive needing OT to beat a team like that. This has just not been a good year for the Bulldogs, who have a losing record at 5-6 at home. Even more important is their awful 2-7-1 ATS record in home lined games.
One thing Fresno State does well is generate offensive rebounds and they have to with how sloppy they are with the ball and their lack of shooting. Problem is the Aggies are a great defensive rebounding team. I just don't see the Bulldogs keeping this close. Take Utah State!
|02-15-20||Virginia v. North Carolina UNDER 118.5||64-62||Loss||-110||13 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Virginia/North Carolina under 118½ -110
This game is not going to be one to watch if you like scoring. With the Cavaliers inability to score on a consistent basis and the Tar Heels lack of outside shooting, I wouldn't be surprised if these two failed to reach 100 points.
Virginia plays as slow as any team and they figure to be on the slower side of things after a grueling OT win against Notre Dame on Tuesday. As for the Tar Heels, they had that great game against Duke last Saturday, but then managed just 57 points on the road against Wake Forest next time out. Even with the home crowd to help, I don't see UNC's offense being able to generate a lot here.
UNDER is also 38-18-1 in Virginia's last 57 road games and 37-15 in their last 52 as an underdog. UNDER is 6-1 in the Tar Heels last 7 vs a team with a winning straight up record and 11-4-1 in their last 16 as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|02-15-20||Cornell v. Dartmouth UNDER 134.5||53-75||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cornell/Dartmouth under 134½ -109
I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Ivy League action that has Dartmouth hosting Cornell. These are two of the slower paced Ivy teams and both figure to be on the slow end of things in this one. The Big Red were on the road at Harvard last night and could not stop the Crimson in a 63-85 loss. Big Green were also in action last night. They pulled out a grueling 65-63 win at home against Columbia.
Last two times Dartmouth has played in the second game of a back-to-back the offense has been a now show. Last Saturday they managed just 57 points at Yale and the Saturday before a mere 46 at Penn. I could see both teams failing to reach 60 in this one.
UNDER is 8-3 in the Big Green's last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 as home favorite. UNDER is also 4-0 in Cornell's last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 and 8-2 in their last 10 on Saturday. Take the UNDER!
|02-15-20||Tennessee +4.5 v. South Carolina||61-63||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +4½ -115
I think a lot of people will have a hard time backing Tennessee on the road at this price, especially with how well South Carolina has been playing. Frank Martin's Gamecocks just went on the road and destroyed Georgia 75-59, improving to 5-1 over their last 6 games.
One of the big reasons I think we are seeing the number a little low, is this has become a difficult spot for South Carolina. Just as everything was going well for the Gamecocks, news of NCAA allegations was announced Thursday. The slightest of distractions can derail a team and I just think they struggle to play well here.
Tennessee has also been playing well here of late and recently won as a road dog at Alabama. Last time out they absolutely destroyed Arkansas 82-61. Vols are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 off a win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after a win by 20 or more. Take Tennessee!
|02-15-20||Notre Dame +12.5 v. Duke||60-94||Loss||-108||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +12½ -108
The Fighting Irish are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Blue Devils. I think Notre Dame is built to give Duke a tough contest. The Irish are certainly playing well coming in, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 with the only loss a mere 1-point setback on the road at Virginia (really should have won). They have covered 6 straighta against the number.
Duke is always going to have an inflated number on them because of how big a public play they are, so the value is definitely there. I also think this is a good spot to fade the Blue Devils, who have played two monster games leading up to this. Last Saturday they had that epic OT win over rival UNC and then Monday had to grind out a 5-point home win over FSU.
Another thing to note here is that this is Notre Dame's only regular-season game against Duke and given how big it is to play Duke for these other ACC teams, I think we get their best effort here. Irish are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Notre Dame!
|02-15-20||Louisville v. Clemson +6.5||62-77||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Clemson +6½ -110
I like the value here with Clemson getting a decent number at home in Saturday's matchup with No. 5 Louisville. The Cardinals had their 10-game winning streak snapped in a 58-64 loss at Georgia Tech on Wednesday as a similarly priced 6-point dog.
Louisville really came out sluggish in that contest and I think the perception here is they will bounce back. Easier said than done when playing on the road with just two days off against a hungry Clemson team that is going to lay it all on the line in this one.
Tigers had been struggling, but put an end to their 3-game skid with an emphatic 72-52 road win at Pitt on Wednesday. Not only will they be motivated here at home against a top ranked foe, but they will come in very confident.
Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 at home off a cover, 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Clemson!
|02-15-20||Georgia +1 v. Texas A&M||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +1 -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at Texas A&M. These two teams played a couple weeks ago at Georgia and the Bulldogs won convincingly 63-48.
Aggies had no answer for Georgia small ball up-tempo attack and really struggled to slow down star freshman Anthony Edwards. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect those same struggles in the rematch.
The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight since that win over Texas A&M, but that's almost a positive given they are 9-2 ATS last 2 years when coming off 3 or more straight conference losses. Aggies are also 0-7 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game as a home dog and 2-9 ATS last 11 at home when revening a loss. Take Georgia!
|02-14-20||World v. USA -4||131-151||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Rising Stars VEGAS INSIDER on USA -4 -110
I'm confident Team USA is going to come away with a win and cover in tonight's Rising Star Challenge. Last year Team USA won going away 161-144 and I think we could see another blowout in this one.
Team USA looks to be even better this year, as they got the two best rookies in the game in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, who both look like guys who will be at or near the top of the game for a long time coming. Team World has Doncic, but much like USA's Trae Young, he doesn't figure to play a lot. Doncic and Young both made the real All-Star game on Sunday and aren't going to log many minutes in this thing.
With that said I think Zion and Morant are going to put on a show at the United Center. Take Team USA!
|02-14-20||Rider +5.5 v. Siena||64-73||Loss||-109||20 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +5½ -109
Rider is definitely worth a look here at this price. This is a big number for the Broncs to be catching. These two teams already played once this season at Rider and the Broncos won that game 85-77. That was back in a stretch in which Rider was 2-6 over a 8 game run.
This time around the Broncs have won 5 of 6 and just won and covered as a 9-point home favoire against Niagara in their last game. There's no question they are going to be up for this one. That first meeting was heated. Multiple players were ejected.
In that first meeting Riders' guards Vaughn and Jordan combined for 50 points and the Broncs defense forced the Saints into 20 turnovers. No reason not to expect more of the same this time around.
Sienna is 2-6 ATS last 8 games off a win and 3-8 ATS last 11 times they have been listed as the favorite. Take Rider!
|02-14-20||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3||Top||93-64||Loss||-104||20 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure -3 -104
I absolutely love the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number at home against the Wildcats. St Bonaventure comes into this game on a roll. Last time out they avoided the dreaded trap game, making easy work of St. Joes on the road after that big upset win at Duquesne.
You factor in how well the team is playing and the energy and excitement around this game, the atmosphere in the Reilly Center should be a big advantage for them. They don't get many prime time games on ESPN2 in their home gym.
On top of that, Davidson has shown no ability to play up their potential on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have really been underachievers all season. They are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS when they are tasked with playing a game away from home. They are also a great fade when the books are giving them points. Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog. Take St. Bonaventure!
|02-13-20||Washington +4 v. USC||Top||56-62||Loss||-114||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Washington +4 -114
Easy play here on the Huskies. Most will look to stay clear of Washington, as they come into this game having lost 6 straight. Not me. Huskies are so close to getting this thing on track and I think they might have found something in the 2nd half against Washington State with their two point guard look.
USC is also not playing great right now. Trojans are reeling off 3 straight losses and fresh off a heartbreaking loss at ASU. I just think USC is in a bad place right now and are going to have a hard time putting the Huskies away. Keep in mind Washington absolutely owned the first meeting, beating the Trojans 72-40 back in early January.
USC has covered their last 2 and 7 of 9 overall, but that's a positive here. Trojans are 2-11 ATS last 13 at home after 2 or more straight covers and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after covering 4/5 of their last 6. USC is also a mere 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Take Washington!
|02-13-20||Thunder v. Pelicans -2||123-118||Loss||-109||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pelicans -2 -109
The Pelicans are worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. New Orleans is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are different looking team since adding in rookie phenom Zion Williamson. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Most recently destroying a hot Blazers team 138-117 on their home floor.
I expect to see a big effort here from the Pelicans to keep that positive momentum going into the All-Star break. As for the Thunder, they have lost their last two and both were at home, including a 8-point loss to the Spurs last time out as a 8-point favorite. OKC has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and I just don't see them flipping on the switch for one game before the break, especially on the road.
There's also triple-revenge in play, as the Thunder have won the first 3 meetings between these two this season. Thing is all 3 of those came in the first two months of the season (last played 12/1).
Pelicans are 34-18 ATS last 52 at home revenging a loss of 3-points or less. They are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|02-13-20||Northern Colorado -4 v. Northern Arizona||Top||84-54||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Colorado -4 -103
I love the value here with Northern Colorado laying a short number on the road against Northern Arizona. The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge from a 6-point home loss to the Lumberjacks and are getting them at the right time. Lumberjacks have lost 2 of 3 and the lone win was in OT against Big Sky bottom feeder Idaho State.
One of the biggest strengths of Northern Arizona is their 3-point shooting. The Lumberjacks average 8 made 3-pointers and are shooting 38% on the season. They rank 2nd in Big Sky in 3-point shooting and yet are 7th in 2-point shooting.
Northern Colorado is elite in terms of defending the 3-pointer. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big Sky in 3-point pct. defense and 6th nationally. They are also 6th best in the country in percentage of shots they allow from 3-point range.
Last time these two played the Bears offense just wasn't in sync. Northern Colorado comes in averaging 75.2 ppg in their last 5 and the Lumberjacks are giving up 73.2 ppg in their last 5. Bears did make 9 3-pointers in the loss, but shot 38 for a mere 23.7%. On the season they shoot 37% from 3 and Northern Arizona is giving up 35% in conference play.
Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Northern Colorado!
|02-13-20||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -2.5||66-74||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -2½ -109
The Bobcats are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Trojans. Little Rock has a big target on their back in the Sun Belt, as they are 3-games clear of the next best team in the league with a 12-2 mark.
The fact that they are a dog here speaks a lot to how much the books respect this Texas State team. There's definitely a lot to like with the Bobcats in this matchup. For starters, they will be out for revenge from a mere 4-point loss at Little Rock earlier this season.
This is also a Texas State team that is rolling.After starting out 1-4 in the Sun Belt, Bobcats have won 7 of their last 9 conference games. Really should be 8-1 in this stretch as they gave away a game last time out at App St.
They led 36-18 and lost 57-60, scoring just 6 points in the final 10 minutes of the game. No way they lose that if leading scorer Nijal Pearson plays. He'll be back for this one as he simply missed the game for the birth of his daughter.
Bobcats have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 games. Teams that have pulled off this feat are a dominating 81-40 (67%) ATS last 5 years in games with a line of +3 to -3 and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games. Take Texas State!
|02-13-20||Eastern Kentucky +4 v. Morehead State||78-71||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky +4 -110
I really like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a road dog against Morehead State. The Colonels had been on a tear before a small hiccup on the road against SIU Edwardsville. The fact that they only lost by 8, despite shooting 7 for 37 on 3-pointers and missing one of their better players in Russhard Cruickshank, really says a lot about how good this team is.
Cruickshank should be ready to go as he's had another 4 days to recover after nearly giving it a go in their last game. Either way the Colonels should bounce back with a big effort here against the Eagles.
Morehead State is a misleading 3-1 over their last 4, as they had 3 straight games and wins over the 3 worst teams in the Ohio Valley. Those are their only 3 wins in their last 8 games. EKY is 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road dog. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|02-13-20||Drexel +6 v. William & Mary||72-77||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Drexel +6 -109
The price here is too good to pass up with Drexel. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won that contest 84-57. It's really been the undoing for the Tribe, who came in at 6-0 in conference play and are now 8-5.
Drexel dominated every aspect of that game against William & Mary. I get they too have took a turn for the worse with 4 losses in their last 5, but no way should they be this big of a dog in this fight. Especially with how the Tribe's offense is struggling. William & Mary is averaging 58.2 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5 games.
It would be on thing if their defense was playing well, but they are giving up 70 ppg on 50% shooting during this same 5-game stretch. Tribe are 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS last 4 as a favorite. The road team and underdog are both 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. Take Drexel!
|02-12-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5||120-116||Loss||-105||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets +2½ -105
Denver is definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Lakers. With how big a public play LA is right now, for the books to hang the Lakers at basically a pick'em, it's clear they like the Nuggets in this spot.
There's definitely reason to fade LA. Denver is one of the more difficult places to play, especially for teams who have had to do a lot of travel. The Lakers have been all over the place. After a home game last Thursday, they traveled to Golden State for a game on Saturday, they then returned home for a game Monday and now are back on the road for this one.
Add in the distractions of All-Star weekend, which is something they can focus on 100% once this game is over, as they don't play again until next Friday. I don't see Denver caring as much about getting to the break. Every team wants to beat the Lakers and the Nuggets are rolling into this one with a lot of confidence with 4 straight wins and covers.
Lakers are also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a road favorite and 1-6 ATS last 7 on just 1 day of rest. Nuggets are 16-7 ATS last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|02-12-20||Providence v. St. John's +2||69-80||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on St. John's +2 -105
I really like the spot and the value with St. John's as a home dog against the Friars. The Red Storm come in off 3 straight losses and we know they are going to be motivated here, especially playing with revenge from a earlier 5-point loss at Providence.
Friars aren't exactly coming into this one with momentum, as they let one slip away on the road Saturday in a 58-64 loss to Xavier. Providence is a mere 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons after playing their last game on the road, 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite.
While the Friars have struggled in this spot, St. John's has covered 5 of their last 7 off a game where they failed to cover and are a dominant 6-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home underdog. Take St. John's!
|02-12-20||Louisville v. Georgia Tech +6||58-64||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech +6 -105
The Yellow Jackets are worth a look here as a home dog against Louisville. There's no question who the better team is. The Cardinals are 21-3 and ranked No. 5 in the country and Georgia Tech is sitting there with a losing record at 11-13.
I think these are the toughest games for a team like Louisville, who is riding high on a 10-game winning streak, which they just extended to 10 with a grueling 80-73 win at home against Virginia. This is the definition of a letdown spot for the Cardinals.
On the flips side, Georgia Tech is going to relish the opportunity to try and knock off a Top 5 team on their home floor. Especially given how close the Yellow Jackets were to upsetting the Cardinals in Louisville a few weeks back, as they lost 64-68 as a 13-point dog.
Georgia Tech lost their last game 64-73 at Pitt, which only adds more value to this play, as the Yellow Jackets are a dominant 9-3 ATS off a loss this season (23-9 Last 32 off a loss). Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech!
|02-12-20||Hawks v. Cavs +2.5||105-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cavs +2½ -110
This is an easy play here on Cleveland as a home dog against the Hawks. I get the Cavs are a bad team and are off an ugly 41-point loss at home to the Clippers, but no way should the Hawks be laying points on the road to any team in the league.
Atlanta is 6-23 on the road this season and they aren't just losing a bunch of close games. The Hawks are losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. It's easy to see why with how little defense they play. Atlanta allows 122.1 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. It's been even worse than that in their last 5 overall, as they are giving up 125 ppg on 49% shooting.
Hawks are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been asked to lay points on the road. Not to mention they are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|02-12-20||Kansas v. West Virginia OVER 135||Top||58-49||Loss||-109||10 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas/West Virginia over 135 -109
I absolutely love the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's massive Big 12 matchup that has No. 14 West Virginia hosting the No. 3 Kansas. These two played back on Jan. 4 at KU and that game finished with a mere 113 points in a 60-53 Jayhawks win. That game had a total of 141.5, so there's clearly been an adjustment by the books for the rematch.
I just think we are going to see a lot more offense this time around, in large part because the scene is shifting to Morgantown. West Virginia likes to play fast. They are the top team in Big 12 play in tempo and should be able to dictate the pace at home. Mountaineers average 72.8 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, but that jumps to 78.7 ppg on 47% shooting at home.
As for Kansas, they are pretty consistent regardless of the venue, as they average 75.0 ppg on 48.6% shooting overall and that drops just slightly to 73.4 ppg on 48.3% shooting on the road. I think both teams are going to get to 70-points in this one.
In that first meeting, which saw WV score just 53 points, they couldn't have shot it any worse. Mountaineers were 19-59 (32.2%) from the field and 3-14 (21.4%) from deep. They also went just 12-22 (54.5%) from the free throw line. Kansas wasn't much better going 19-47 (40.4%), 3-17 (17.6%) from deep and 19-30 (63.3%) on free throws. OVER is also 5-0 last 5 times the Jayhawks have been listed as a dog! Take the OVER!
|02-11-20||Spurs v. Thunder -7.5||114-106||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Thunder -7½ -109
Easy play here on OKC at home against the Spurs. Big time bounce back spot for the Thunder off a hard fought 1-point loss at home to the Celtics. OKC is still 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games and will have a huge edge here playing on 1-day of rest. Not to mention the Thunder have had to do zero travel of late, playing their 4th straight at home.
As for the Spurs, they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an excruciating 120-127 loss at Denver last night. San Antonio had a 23-point lead over the Nuggets before suffering an absolute meltdown. This will be their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. I don't think there's any recovering from this for the Spurs until after the All-Star break.
Spurs are 2-11 ATS last 13 road games in the month of February, 4-12 ATS last 16 when playing 6 or more games in a 10 day stretch and 2-11 ATS last 13 after losing 4/5 of their last 6. Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 after winning 4 of their last 5. Take OKC!
|02-11-20||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +13||Top||78-64||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +13 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Commodores as a big double-digit home dog against the Wildcats. Vanderbilt comes in with a 1-9 record in SEC play, which I think has them way undervalued, especially with how well they have been playing.
Commodores have covered 4 straight and all 4 have come against some quality opponents. They lost by just 9 as a 21-point road dog at Kentucky, then lost by just 6 at home to Florida as a 11.5-point dog. They proceeded to then beat LSU 99-90 as a 11.5-point home dog and last time out lost by just 10 at Mississippi State as a 15.5-point dog.
Even though it's a long-shot, I can guarantee you Vanderbilt is approaching this game with the confidence they not only keep it close, but win outright. For a Kentucky team that is sitting at 8-2 and fresh off a big road win at Tennessee, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them lay an egg here.
Wildcats are just 2-9 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 or more and Commodores are 4-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 last 4 as a dog. Take Vanderbilt!
|02-11-20||Bowling Green +7.5 v. Akron||59-74||Loss||-114||13 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bowling Green +7½ -114
The Falcons are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Zips. Bowling Green suffered a big blow when one of their best players, Dylan Frye, decided to just up and leave the program. Frye was a big part of that team, but if there's a team that can overcome a loss like that it's the Falcons.
I feel the books have inflated the number here on Akron too much. The Zips snapped a two game skid with a win at home over Eastern Michigan, but it was far from a dominant showing. Akron won by the slimmest of margins 59-58, coming no where close to covering as a 12-point favorite. Zips continued to struggle from the field and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Bowling Green won this game outright.
Falcons are 13-5 ATS last 18 times they have been listed as a dog, 13-3 ATS last 16 off a home conference win and 14-5 ATS last 19 on the road off a home win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-10-20||Suns v. Lakers -12.5||100-125||Win||100||15 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Lakers -12½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Lakers at home on Monday. LA avoided a second straight loss with a 125-120 win at Golden State and I think there's some motivation here for them to play well in these last two games before the All-Star break.
As for the Suns, they are really struggling to get going. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 6. While their lone win was a 36-point victory over the Rockets, Houston was resting guys and in a massive flat spot in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back after beating these Lakers the night before.
This also has to be a tired Suns team. Phoenix will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and 6th in the last 9. I just don't see them having the energy needed to keep this game close and let's not forget the Suns are still dealing with a lot of injuries right now.
Phoenix is 7-18 ATS last 25 when playing 6 or more games in a 10-day stretch and are 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Lakers are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a road win. Take Los Angeles!
|02-10-20||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||65-70||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida State +8½ -115
Easy play here on the Seminoles as a near double-digit dog at Duke. I just think there's too much value with FSU in this spot. Blue Devils come into this game off an improbable 98-96 OT win on the road against rival North Carolina. Not only did the game go to OT, but Duke had to rally from double-digits down late in the 2nd half and eventually won the game on a last second shot.
I know the Seminoles are not a team to overlook and I expect Duke to play hard, I just don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to pull away and win this thing by more than the number. In fact, if they struggle at all this is a game the Seminoles can win outright.
FSU can light it up. Seminoles are shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep on the season. Duke is just 3-15 ATS last 2 seasons when playing a team at least 15 games into the season that is hitting 45% or better from the field. Blue Devils are also 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida State!
|02-09-20||Heat +5 v. Blazers||109-115||Loss||-105||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Heat +5 -105
I like the value here with Miami catching a decent number on the road against the Blazers. I just think we are getting a good price on the Heat here due to the fact that they won't have Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. However, they are expected to debut a couple of their new additions in Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala.
The other big there here is I think this is a really tough spot for Portland. Blazers just suffered a crushing 114-117 loss at Utah on Friday in the second leg of a back-to-back. A game they led by 14 at the half and got screwed on a non-goaltending call late. Now they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and this is where their lack of depth really hurts them.
Miami lost 97-105 at Sacramento on Friday, but the Heat are a dominant 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss. Miami has struggled on the road, but Portland is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 4-9 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Take Miami!
|02-09-20||Evansville +12.5 v. Bradley||Top||58-69||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Evansville +12½ -107
I really like the value here with the Purple Aces as a huge road dog against the Braves. Evansville is a team the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with, as they are winless in MVC play at 0-11. That has left the books no choice but to inflate the number in their games and I just feel there's a ton of value here.
While the losses keep mounting, the Purple Aces have been on the verge of that first conference win. They just took Southern Illinois to OT at home in their last game, lost by just 12 at home to UNI in their previous game and only lost by 11 at Illinois St and by 2 at Valpo in their two before that.
Bradley has lost 4 of their last 6 and are off back-to-back double-digit losses at Loyola and Drake. I just think they are going to have a hard time here giving an Evansville team they beat by 20 on the road their full attention. Purple Aces' ability to defend the 3-pointer (29th nationally) is also huge, as the Braves are 313th in 2-point shooting. Take Evansville!
|02-08-20||Pepperdine v. Pacific -3||78-79||Loss||-109||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Pacific -3 -109
Easy play here on the Tigers as a small home favorite against the Waves. Pacific is rolling right now, as they come in having won 3 straight to improve to 6-4 in WCC action. Tigers are tough to beat at home, where they are 12-4 this season and they already beat Pepperdine on the road earlier this year.
Tigers are 32-15 ATS last 47 home games off 2 straight conference wins and should have a field day offensively in this one, as the Waves are giving up 83.2 ppg on 49% shooting in road games this season. While some of that has to do with their non-conf schedule, they are allowing 81.2 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5 games.
Pepperdine is off a 91-77 win at home over Santa Clara, but are just 2-7 ATS last 9 off a SU win. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 after winning 2 of 3 and 1-7 ATS last 8 after scoring 80 or more. Take Pacific!
|02-08-20||Northern Arizona v. Weber State -2||70-76||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Weber State -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats at basically a pick'em on their home floor against Northern Arizona. Weber State has caught fire here of late with 3 wins in their last 4 to go from 2-6 in Big Sky play to 5-7. I look for them to build on that momentum and get revenge from an earlier 8-point loss at Northern Arizona.
The big thing to note with the Lumberjacks win in the first meeting is they only won by 8 on their home floor, despite shooting 57% from the field and 56% from behind the 3-point line. You shoot like that, you should win by 20+. I just don't see them having near the success on the road, where they are scoring just 68.8 ppg on 43.7% shooting.
With Weber State scoring 80.9 ppg on 50% shooting at home, I just don't see Northern Arizona being able to score enough to win this one. Wildcats are 70-44 (61%) ATS last 114 when revenging a road loss and 32-15 ATS last 47 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take Weber State!
|02-08-20||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -8||Top||73-75||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -8 -110
Easy play here on the Orange at home against the Demon Deacons. Syracuse should have zero problem beating Wake Forest by double-digits Saturday. Lot to like with the Orange in this one, as they have had a full week off to get their minds right following a tough home loss to Duke last Saturday. Huge motivational spot for Syracuse to put their 2-game losing streak to rest.
As for the Demon Deacons, this is not an ideal spot for them playing on the road for a second straight game after a grueling loss at home to Louisville on Wednesday. I just don't think 2 days is enough for Wake Forest to get their minds right for this game and they have had their troubles keeping games respectable on the road (3 of their last 4 on the road have resulted in losses by 10 or more).
Demon Deacons are also just 2-7 overall, which is worth noting, as they are a mere 14-33 ATS last 47 on the road when they come in having lost 6/7 of their last 8. They are also just 3-13 ATS last 16 road games off a conference loss. Favorite has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take Syracuse!
|02-08-20||Pelicans v. Pacers -2||124-117||Loss||-109||8 h 39 m||Show|
4* BEST BET on Pacers -2 -109
Analysis will be posted shortly
|02-08-20||South Florida +8.5 v. Memphis||75-73||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS DESTROYER on South Florida +8½ -109
I like the value here with South Florida as a near double-digit dog on the road against Memphis. While the Tigers come in having won 3 straight, only one of those was by more than 7 points and that was against a bad Temple team last time out.
I just don't think this Memphis team can be trusted to lay a number like this. South Florida has got some momentum going with back-to-back wins and are off one of their best games this season, beating UCF by 16 at home last Saturday. Bulls will also draw plenty of confidence and motivation from a near upset of Memphis at home earlier this season, which they lost by just 4 points.
Having a week to prepare for USF is huge, especially given that Memphis has quick turnaround after playing on Wednesday. Tigers also struggle with turnovers and had 22 against the Bulls in that first meeting. South Florida should have a big edge there again, which will make it really hard on Memphis to pull away.
Bulls are 18-6 ATS last 24 off a home win, 13-3 ATS last 16 after playing 2 straight games as a favorite, 14-4 ATS last 18 off 2 straight wins and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 off two straight covers as a favorite. Take South Florida!
|02-08-20||Purdue v. Indiana UNDER 129.5||74-62||Loss||-110||4 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Purdue/Indiana under 129½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between Purdue and Indiana. Don't be fooled by the 104 points that the Boilermakers put up in Wednesday's win at home over Iowa. Hawkeyes have the worst defense in the conference and were in a huge flat spot off a big home win over Illinois.
I look for Purdue to go right back to their ways of struggling to score, especially with this game being on the road. Boilermakers are averaging a mere 54.8 ppg in regulation on the road in Big Ten play and have not scored more than 63 points in regulation in those 6 road games. Indiana only gives up 66.1 ppg on 40% shooting at home.
Purdue's defense isn't as good on the road as it is at home, but they are giving up just 64.3 ppg on the highway and are facing an Indiana offense that has scored 49 and 59 points in their last two games.
UNDER is 11-2 in the Hoosiers last 13 home games off a road loss and 9-1 in their last 10 at home if they have failed to cover 4/5 of their last 6. UNDER is 7-2 in Purdue's last 9 after scoring 90 or more points and 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Take the UNDER!
|02-08-20||Furman -4 v. Western Carolina||82-73||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Furman -4 -109
The Paladins are worth a look here as a small road favorite at Western Carolina. Furman is sitting tied on top the Southern Conference at 9-2 with East Tennessee State and are one of the better small conference teams not a lot of people know about. Paladins are 73rd right now in KenPom.
Western Carolina in comparison is sitting at No. 158. Furman comes into this one playing extremely well, as they have won 4 straight, most recently destroying Mercer 79-57 at home. That was the same Mercer team they only beat by 2 on the road earlier this season.
The Catamounts fall into a similar spot, as they gave the Paladins a really good game back in January, losing by just 4 on the road. I don't see Furman playing around with Western Carolina this time around.
Look for turnovers to be the difference maker, as the Paladins are 26th nationally in defensive turnover rate, while Western Carolina is 236th in offensive turnover rate. Paladins are also 13-4 ATS last 17 as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference home win. Take Furman!
|02-08-20||VMI v. The Citadel||75-64||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on VMI PK -110
I like the value here with the Keydets at a pick'em on the road against The Citadel. All you have to do here is look at the recent history between these two teams to see the value with VMI. The Keydets have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series and are covering by almost 7 ppg.
You also have to factor in all the injuries that the Bulldogs are dealing with. Not only do they got several key guys out, but those that are able to play are playing at less than 100%. On top of that, The Citadel is sitting winless in Southern Conference play at 0-11. They aren't just losing, they are getting beat badly, as 6 of their last 7 losses are by 9 or more points.
Playing another bad team hasn't helped them out much either. Bulldogs are 15-34-2 ATS last 51 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. VMI on the other hand is 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have faced a team that's allowing 77 or more points/game. Take VMI!
|02-08-20||Rhode Island v. George Washington UNDER 141||82-51||Win||100||3 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island/George Washington under 141 -110
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Saturday's early action out of the A-10 between George Washington and Rhode Island. I just think the total here is way too high for this matchup. The Rams are one of the best defensive teams in the Atlantic 10 and couldn't matchup better with the Colonials.
George Washington runs basically their entire offense thru the pick and roll and Rhode Island is exceptional at defending that action, ranking 28th best in the country. Rams have also really hit their stride on the defensive side of the ball here of late and are giving up just 64.3 ppg in conference play. The UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 conference games.
Colonials are also struggling offensively right now. They managed just 47 points at St Bonaventure last time out. A game they were missing starting point guard Armel Potter, who is questionable to play in this one. Prior to that they scored just 54 on the road against Richmond. You need both teams to score to hit a total like this and I just don't see it happening. Take the UNDER!
|02-07-20||Rockets v. Suns UNDER 235.5||91-127||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Suns under 235½ -109
The UNDER is worth a look here. Books have set a massive number on the total for this one, but I have hard time seeing the pace being there for these two to eclipse the mark.
Houston is in a massive letdown spot here playing on the second leg of a back-to-back road set after playing last night in LA. A game they won 121-111, which I think only makes it that more likely they don't show up for this one. You also have to factor in they are going to rest Russell Westbrook, as they continue to keep him from playing both games in a back-to-back scenario.
As for the Suns, they are really hurting with injuries. Aaron Baynes, Dario Saric, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome and Cam Johnson are all out for this one. Also, while Phoenix is at home on a day of rest, this figures to be a tired Suns team. As they had to play Sunday at Milwaukee, Monday at Brooklyn and then Wednesday at Detroit. Suns are only scoring 105 ppg over their last 4 games, well below their season mark of 112.5 ppg.
UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Rockets last 7 on 0 days rest and 5 of their last 7 as a road favorite. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Suns last 7 home games. Take the UNDER!
|02-07-20||Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 217.5||101-108||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons/Thunder under 217½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER between the Pistons and Thunder. This is just too big a number given what Detroit has to work with on the road. The Pistons are without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard long-term. Derrick Rose, Markieff Morris and Svi Mykhailiuk won't be available for this one.
Detroit also just traded away their best player in Andre Drummond. They did get John Henson and Brandon Knight in the deal, but hard to imagine the suit up here and even if they do it's hard seeing their offense do much of anything.
Just a couple of games ago we saw Detroit manage just 82 points on the road at Memphis and I would be shocked if they sniffed 100 in this one. UNDER is 9-4 in the Pistons last 13 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 trips to OKC. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 overall for the Thunder. Take the UNDER!
|02-07-20||Iona +6 v. Quinnipiac||Top||73-52||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona +6
I love the value here with the Gaels as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Iona, as they try to make it work under interim head coach Tra Arnold, but this is just too good a price to pass up.
Quinnipiac is setting 3rd in the MAAC at 6-4, but they are just 2-4 in league play after starting out 4-0. Most recently losing by 16 on the road at Niagara, who is ranked just slightly higher than the Gaels.
Bobcats have been a good fade at home off a road loss. They are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home off a conference road loss and a mere 1-11 ATS in their last 12 at home off a road loss by 10 or points.
Quinnipiac has also not had much luck against teams that make a living from the 3-point line. Bobcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Iona!
|02-06-20||Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine||77-91||Loss||-115||14 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +3 -115
I really like the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Waves. These two teams just played two weeks ago at Santa Clara and it came down to the wire with Pepperdine winning 90-86 in OT. Since 1997 the Broncos are 60% ATSS when revening a same season loss.
Most might think the Waves are the way with this time the game being played on their home floor. However, Pepperdine is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also 2-10 ATS last 12 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS last 8 as a home favorite. Road team and underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series. Take Santa Clara!
|02-06-20||Pelicans v. Bulls +5||125-119||Loss||-105||10 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +5 -105
The Bulls are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pelicans. The books are absolutely begging you to take New Orleans here, as they are feeding into the Zion Williamson hype. I know Chicago has disappointed and are dealing with some injuries, but they are going to show up with a big effort here.
Zion has looked great, but the Pelicans are just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 7 games since he made his debut. I really think this is a tough spot for them having just recently played at Houston and then at home against the Bucks. Really easy for them to look past a struggling Bulls team on the road.
Pelicans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago in the meantime will be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Chicago!
|02-06-20||North Texas v. Middle Tennessee +8.5||75-70||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Middle Tennessee +8½ -110
I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a near double-digit dog at home against the Mean Green. North Texas just had their 8-game winning streak snapped in an ugly 75-84 loss at Rice as a 8.5-point favorite. Prior to that they struggled to put away a bad UTEP team. I just think it's asking a lot for the Mean Green to win here in blowout fashion.
Middle Tennessee is just 2-8 in C-USA play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, including a win at UTSA in their last game as a 8-point dog. Blue Raiders haven't been nearly as bad as their conference record and that shows in their 6-4 ATS mark in C-USA play.
Blue Raiders have gone 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a dog and are 10-2 ATS last 12 off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more. Home team has also covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Middle Tennessee!
|02-06-20||Cincinnati v. Wichita State -4||Top||80-79||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wichita State -4 -110
I love the value here with the Shockers as a small home favorite against the Bearcats. I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with Wichita State at home given how motivated the Shockers are going to be off a close 3-point loss at Tulsa. Not to mention Wichita State is 13-1 on their home floor this season.
Cincinnati has won 4 straight, but 3 of those 4 were at home and the other was at a bad Temple team. We saw these same Bearcats lost by 11 at Memphis on the road. I also think this is a really tough spot for Cincinnati coming off that emotional 64-62 win at home over Houston, where they rallied from 15 down to get the win.
Bearcats are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 3-13 ATS last 16 as a road dog. Shockers are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Wichita State!
|02-06-20||Elon +3.5 v. NC-Wilmington||62-56||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Elon +3½ -110
I like the value here with the Phoenix getting points on the road against the Seahawks. I just don't think UNC Wilmington should be favored. They are a mere 2-9 in CAA play and their two wins are both by a mere 2-points. They come in off back-to-back double-digit losses on the road to Townson and most recently at James Madison by 17.
These two teams played earlier this season and the Phoenix won by 17 at home, which I think speaks for itself in the value with them getting points in the rematch. UNC Wilmington simply can't score. They are last in the CAA in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Not to mention they struggle with turnovers and aren't good on the boards. They also are bottom of the pack in defense.
Seahawks are 1-5 ATS last 6 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Elon!
|02-05-20||Wisconsin v. Minnesota OVER 124.5||52-70||Loss||-110||15 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Wisconsin/Minnesota over 124½ -110
The books have completely missed the mark here with the total in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Wisconsin and Minnesota. I get the Badgers like to play slow, but there's just too much value with this low total to not take a shot on the OVER.
Gophers are a different offensive team on their home floor and the OVER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less and the average combined score in these games is 149. OVER is also a perfect 6-0 in the Gophers last 6 at home after a game where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the OVER!
|02-05-20||Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 218||Top||98-95||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA - Northwest Div TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Jazz under 218 -109
I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. After losing 4 straight where the defense has not been playing well, I think we are going to get a big time effort from Utah at home in this one.
One of the reasons the Jazz's defense was slipping was the team was just worn down. They should be refreshed here playing on a full 3 days of rest. Last time out Utah lost 107-124 at Portland as a 8-point favorite and that's worth noting. UNDER is 26-9 in the Jazz's last 35 off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more.
Another big thing here is Denver will be playing this game on no rest, as they had to host the Blazers last night. Look for a Nuggets team that ranks 29th in pace to play even slower than normal on no rest.
UNDER is also 31-9 (78%) last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off 2 or more consecutive road losses in a matchup of two good teams that have won between 60% to 75% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|02-05-20||Western Carolina -5 v. Samford||78-70||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Western Carolina -5 -105
Easy play here on the Catamounts laying a really short number on the road against Samford. The Bulldogs are simply one of the worst teams in the conference. Samford has lost 8 straight games with each of the last 7 setbacks coming by 7 or more.
There's a lot the Bulldogs do well. They are 9th in the Southern Conference in offensive efficiency and 10th (last) in effective field goal percentage. They are also 10th in both of these categories on the defensive side of the ball.
Samford is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team with a winning record, 2-11 ATS last 13 as a dog and 1-9 ATS last 10 after giving up 80 or more in their last game. Catamounts should win and win big. Take Western Carolina!
|02-05-20||Suns v. Pistons UNDER 220||108-116||Loss||-109||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Pistons under 220 -109
The UNDER is definitely worth a look here between the Pistons and Suns. These are two teams that are really dealing with some big injuries right now. Detroit's been without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard for a while.
They won't have Derrick Rose or Svi Mykhailiuk for this one and Markieff Morris is questionable. Pistons were in a similar spot in their last game and managed just 82 points on 35% shooting at Memphis a game that saw a combined 178 points with a total of 223.5.
As for the Suns, Cameron Johnson, Aron Baynes, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are all expected to miss this game. Much like the Pistons the Suns struggled to overcome these injuries in their last game, scoring just 97 on the road at Brooklyn, who is far from a good defensive team. Take the UNDER!
|02-05-20||Mercer v. Furman OVER 142.5||Top||57-79||Loss||-114||13 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Southern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mercer/Furman over 142½ -114
I love the value here with the OVER between Mercer and Furman in Wednesday's action out of the Southern Conference. Both of these teams come into this game clicking on the offensive side of the ball.
The Bears are averaging 78.2 ppg on 53% shooting in their last 5 and the Paladins are averaging 77.6 ppg on 46% shooting in their last 5.
It's worth noting the spread here, with Furman currently laying 11-points at home. The OVER is 9-2 the last 2 seasons when the Paladins are a home favorite of 10 or more and the average score in these games is 159.9. Take the OVER!
|02-05-20||Wofford v. VMI OVER 137.5||79-73||Win||100||13 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wofford/VMI over 137½ -115
I really like the value here with the OVER between Wofford and VMI. I think we are getting some value here with the number due to the fact that these two played to a combined score of just 120 in an earlier meeting.
Thing is both teams shot poorly in that matchup with VMI connecting on just 35% of their attempts and Wofford at 43%. The two also went a combined 15 of 55 from 3-point range. Wofford averages 10 made 3's a game and VMI averages 11, so that was clearly an off night for both teams. Note each of the previous 3 meetings between these two saw a combined score of 166 or more.
VMI comes in losers of 3 straight and that's a positive here, as the OVER is 16-4 in their last 20 off 3 straight losses and 6-0 in their last 6 at home after 2 or more losses. OVER is also 20-8 in Wofford's last 28 off a conference win by 20 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take the OVER!
|02-04-20||Air Force +11 v. Nevada||54-88||Loss||-112||16 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Air Force +11 -112
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit road dog at Nevada. This is just way too many points for the Wolf Pack to be laying with how they are playing. Nevada is just 3-5 over their last 8 games and have lost their last two.
Air Force has lost 4 straight and failed to cover all 4, but that's definitely playing into this favorable price we are getting. Falcons will be extremely motivated here and have had a full week to prepare, having not played since last Tuesday at home against Fresno State. As for Nevada, they were in action on Saturday.
Air Force is a profitable 28-17-1 ATS when they have an advantage in rest under head coach Dave Pilipovich. Falcons are also 15-7 ATS last 22 games vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Air Force!
|02-04-20||Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5||110-125||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets/Rockets under 224½ -110
I like the value with the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Rockets hosting the Hornets. As good as Houston is offensively they are shooting a mere 44% over their last 5 games and figure to have a hard time putting up a big number here.
Not because the Hornets are a juggernaut on defense, but because Charlotte plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Not to mention the Hornets are arguably the worst offensive team in the league right now. Charlotte is shooting 42% from the field in their last 5 and 42% on the road this season. In the Hornets last 10 games the most they have scored in any game is 112 and 7 of the 10 have seen them score 100 or less.
UNDER has gone 9-3 in Charlotte's last 12 games vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 7-2 in Rockets last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER!
|02-04-20||Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 143||Top||79-76||Win||100||12 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC TOTAL PLAY OF THE MONTH on Auburn/Arkansas over 143 -115
We should have no problem cashing the OVER in tonight's big SEC showdown between Arkansas and No. 11 Auburn. These are not only two of the top offenses in the SEC, but both of these teams like to play fast. Razorbacks are 3rd in the SEC in tempo and Auburn is 5th.
Auburn comes in having scored 74 or more in 4 straight games and have done so in each of their last two games despite shooting worse than 38% from the field. Arkansas has scored 70 or more in each of their last 4 and 7 of their last 8 overall. Razorbacks are also giving up 75 ppg over their last 5. Last time they were at home they allowed 79 points on 50% shooting to South Carolina.
OVER is 5-1 in Arkansas' last 6 as a home favorite and 40-22 in Auburn's last 62 on the road against top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg at least 15 games into the season. Take the OVER!