4* Major Big Ten Bookie Back Breaker on Indiana +10
Illinois really struggles on the road. It picked up its first Big Ten road win at Northwestern last game, but only by a point. Indiana is playing improved ball and will be fired up for a team which embarrassed it on the road. With these factors in mind, these 10 points are too many for the books to be giving the Hoosiers. The Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.

3* SMASH on Wichita State +1
Condensed writeup due to the amount of games to handicap. The Shockers are rolling, having won 6 of 8 and they'll be ready to avenge an ugly earlier season loss to UNI today. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Shockers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Shockers are always tough on their home floor (10-3 this year) and we'll take them here.

3* SMASH on UCF +2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I love UCF in the home dog role today as it is 7-1 ATS in all home games this season and 8-2 ATS against conference opponents this season. Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back on the road, UCF will be happy to see its home floor and will come away with an easy win.

4* Major Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Xavier -28.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Off back-to-back road losses, look out for Xavier to wax the floor with an awful Fordham team this afternoon. Fordham has already lost at home by 26 to Xavier and now the Muske's are even more motivated. Fordham lost by 30 to a St. Louis team recently which Xavier beat 70-44 as well. The rout will be on early. Fordham is 4-15 ATS in all games this season and 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Xavier is 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. Take Xavier.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Month on Penn State -2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. After 3 straight losses in conference play, expect the Lions to bounce back strong today against a Minnesota team that has not been strong away from home. The Gophers won the first matchup handily on their home floor and that inspires a revenge play here. Penn State is 15-6 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 69.8 to 59.1 in these spots. Take State!

5* NCAAB Shocker of the Year on Seton Hall +10
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Seton Hall is rolling, having won 5 straight and 7 of 9 ATS. UConn will have to go without the injured Jerome Dyson and his 13 points per game average. Seton Hall played UConn to a 15-point game on the road a month ago before it was playing good basketball. Its current win streak and the injury to Dyson really boosts its confidence level. The Huskies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 4-13 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5. Take the points as Seton Hall easily keeps this one within the number with a chance to pull off the big upset today!

3* ESPN Prime Time Smash of the Week on WVU -3.5
While Villanova has been rolling, if we take a closer look during its 6-game winning streak, we find that it really struggled in road games at USF and at Providence. If we go back even further, at Seton Hall and at Marquette as well. WVU has been the same way, but it gets the Cats at home tonight where it is 40-6 in its last 46 home games. This is a big game for the Mountaineers in terms of impressing the NCAA Tourney committee and I like them to take care of business. The Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Bet the Mountaineers!

4* Major NCAAB Total of the Week on Dartmouth/Columbia UNDER 121
Dartmouth is 16-0 UNDER in games where both teams score 65 or less points over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 UNDER in games where both teams score 65 or less points this season. The average total score in the first system is 111 points and the average total score in the second is just 114.6. Take the Under!

5* Friday Night NCAAB GOTY on Brown -1
Brown just ended a treacherous 5-game Ivy League road spell. It did not come away with a win, but it held its own, playing Yale and Dartmouth to 2 point games and Harvard to a 1-point game. Brown is a solid 5-2 at home this season and hungry for its first Ivy win. Penn is just 3-7 on the road and was swept by Brown a season ago, including a 43-75 loss here. Brown has won 8 of the last 11 at home in this matchup. Penn is 13-23 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons and 9-18 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Quakers are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. The Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Brown!

3* NCAAB Late Night Bailout (ESPN 2) on Gonzaga -4
As much as the Gaels would like to get some revenge here, I just don't see it happening without Patrick Mills. Gonzaga won the first meeting by 7 points and I think this one ends up even worse than that as the Bulldogs will be pissed off after getting it handed to them by Memphis. St. Mary's is also coming off a blowout loss and is just is 6-18 ATS in home games after a loss by 15 points or more since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 61.9 to 70.7. The Zags will be too much for St. Mary's again.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Warriors UNDER 217.5
Scoring 144 points, like the Warriors did last time out, forces odds makers to set an inflated number. We'll make them pay for doing so here as the Blazers will have no part in Golden State's up and down game. Portland averages just 95.8 ppg and allows 96.8 ppg on the road this season. 6 straight in this matchup have not topped this number and 20 of the last 21. The one that did was a 218 point total. Portland is 27-12 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 UNDER in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and 23-7 UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score in all 3 of these systems doesn't come even close to the number we are faced with today. Bet the Under.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on UCLA -1.5
UCLA is rolling, having won 4 in a row via blowout, and now it is ready to get revenge over ASU for handing it an OT loss at home earlier in the season. I love UCLA tonight because of how dominant it has been on the glass. AUS is just 5-18 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+ games since 1997. UCLA is 13-4 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite since 1997 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bruins tonight.

4* Major Mid-Major Massacre of the Month on Buffalo -9
3-20 E. Mich is awful and it has lost by double digits in 4 straight, 6 of 7, and 14 of 20. Buffalo is the real deal and it beat an Akron team that crushed E. Mich 78-41 on February 3rd. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Mid-American, and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the number!

5* Big Chalk BLOWOUT of the Year on Davidson -12
Baby face killer Stephen Curry will put on a show tonight as the Wildcats will be out for blood after losing at home to College of Charleston. Davidson has won by 13 or more in each of the last 4 meetings, including a 35-point win at Wofford last year and a 23-point win at home this season. Davidson is 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1997, 7-0 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite since 1997, 7-0 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival since 1997, and 6-0 ATS in road games in February games over the last 3 seasons. Wofford is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. In all, Davidson is 17-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1997. Take the Cats!

4* Major Wednesday Night NBA BEST BET on Jazz +2.5
With LA playing back-to-back, a rested and prepared Jazz team, whose last taste of ball was a terrible blowout loss at Golden State, will be ready to take bounce back against the best team in the league tonight. The Jazz are 20-6 at home this season and 57-10 over the last 2. Plays on home teams (UTAH) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 48-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Home team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Jazz!

3* Tobacco Road Rivalry (ESPN) on Duke +2
UNC has won 3 straight at Cameron Indoor and that works more in Duke's favor here as they finally defend home court in this rivalry tonight. While Carolina is tied with Duke for the conference lead at 7-2, it is just 3-6 ATS in those games as it has been greatly overvalued. There's no way Duke should be an underdog on its home floor tonight. Duke is a perfect 14-0 at home this season where its defense has been terrific, limiting opponents to only 59 ppg. That is a big area where the Dukies have an advantage as UNC's defense has not been nearly as solid, especially on the road. UNC is 0-7 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Duke is 6-0 ATS in home games off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Have to take the points with Duke at home!

4* Major Big East Blowout of the Month on Cincy -8.5
St. John's is 0-6 on the road this season with the closest it has come to winning being a 10-point loss as Seton Hall. Cincy has won 6 of its last 8 and yet it continues to fly under the radar. St. John's is 0-6 ATS in road lined games this season, losing by an average score of 63.5 to 81.5 in these games. Cincy is 12-3 at home and already has an 11-point road win over the Johnnies this season. Lay the number!

3* SMASH on 76ers -11
Memphis is just 3-18 on the road this season and just 6-15 ATS in those games. It is just 1-6 in its last 7 road contests, losing all 6 of those by double digits. Plus, Rudy Gay, second on the team with 18.8 points per game, will be out until after the All-Star game with a left hip flexor. The 76ers have won 3 in a row and 13 of 17. Memphis is 1-16 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons and Philly is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Bounce Back Game of the Year on Purdue -10.5
Off back-to-back road losses at Ohio State and Illinois, the Boilermakers will be out for blood on their home floor tonight! Outside of a fluke win at Michigan State, Penn State has struggled on the road with 20 point losses at Minnesota and at Michigan. The Lions have now lost back-to-back games by double digits. Also, not in Penn State's favor here is that it beat the Boilers early in the Big Ten season when Purdue was not at full strength. That is just going to make Purdue want this one even more. Purdue is 8-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win in these spots by an average score of 75.6 to 58.6. Purdue is 6-0 ATS in home February games over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Pound Purdue!

4* Major Anti-Public Annihilator on Knicks +4.5
The Knicks have lost 4 in a row to give us additional value with this line. 4 losses initially looks like a team is slumping, but that is not the case for NY which has played the Lakers, Cavs, Celtics, and Blazers all very tough. Now they get a chance to end their skid against a team they dropped 138 points on earlier this season and I expect them to take full advantage. The Warriors will not have the same intensity tonight as they played with in a big win over Utah last game as that win puts them in a letdown spot. Golden State is just 4-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 1-10 ATS off a home win this season. Plus, the Knicks play uptempo basketball even better than the Warriors and that really stands to expose Golden State's defense, just like it did in the Big Apple when NY won 138-125. While NY is just 7-17 on the road it is 14-10 ATS and comes in having covered the number in 9 of its last 11. Take the points tonight!

4* Major NBA Bounce Back Game of the Week on Nuggets pk
Denver was killed in its last game to the tune of 70-114 in New Jersey. This team is far too good to lose like that and I fully expect the Nuggets to come out with fire tonight. Denver has had Miami's number with a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark the last 3 seasons, which includes an 11-point home win over the Heat early last month in which Melo did not play. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the Nugs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the Nuggets!

5* Big East Game of the Month on Providence pk
The Bulls just pulled off a 1-point win over Marquette as a 9-point dog to hand the Eagles its first Big East loss. If that doesn't spell letdown then I don't know what does. Providence has lost 3 in a row, to better teams, including a devastating 27-point loss at WVU. The Friars now get a team they are perfect against the last 3 seasons to take their frustration out on tonight and that they will. Plays on a road team (PROVIDENCE) after allowing 85 points or more 3 straight games are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. USF is 6-17 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 70.8 to 78.0, and 8-25 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Pound the Friars!

4* Major NBA Monster Line Mistake on Bucks +7
The Rockets do not deserve to be laying 7 points on the road today. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest. Milwaukee has a losing record on the season but is a solid 14-9 at home. Houston is a game below .500 on the road and has lost 3 of its last 4 road games SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-18 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Bucks have an excellent shot to win this game and we'll take them tonight.

5* NBA Game of the Month on LA Clippers +2
The Clippers are finally healthy again and it has showed with back-to-back blowout wins over Memphis and Atlanta in which they put up over 120 points in each. They have had a day to rest and will now look to end their road trip strong tonight. The Bobcats have lost 5 in a row, including yesterday's loss at Miami. These teams are going in two different directions right now and Charlotte is not going to be able to keep up with LA's pace without fresh legs. The Road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Charlotte is only 3-8 straight up in the second of back to back games this season and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Pound the Clippers!

4* MAAC GOTM on Loyola MD +14.5
Loyola has been playing good ball winning 6 of their last 8, but those 2 losses have come in its last 2 games and that fuels the fire before taking on a Siena team that it always plays tough. The Underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, the Road team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, the Greyhounds are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Siena, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 overall. Loyola got caught looking ahead last game as it should have beaten Manhattan at home and that is significant here as plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (LOYOLA-MD) - off an upset loss as favorite, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 87-35 ATS since 1997. Take the points!

5* NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Month on Kings +7
The Kings beat the Thunder by 4 at home a week ago and I like them to have a great chance to win again today. OKC is in a letdown spot after a big win over Portland and will not be able to get up for the Kings the same way. Plus, the Thunder have played better ball of late but they still don't deserve to be laying these kind of points. The only other time OKC was this big of a favorite this season, Memphis tied them at the end of regulation. We lost the cover in OT but had the right side unmistakably. Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home loss are 40-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Blazers -8
Off a loss to the lowly Thunder, Portland returns home and will be out for blood today. The Knicks have given it all in three straight home losses to the Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics and will have a very tough time getting up for this one in the aftermath. Portland is 18-5 at home this season. The Trail Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite period. Bet the Blazers.

3* National TV Total SMASH on Lakers/Cavs UNDER 206
3 straight and 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone under the number and this is the highest number we have seen during this stretch. While the Lakers won the first meeting this season, the Cavs have had great success against LA because they have been able to control the tempo and because they are a solid defensive team. Cleveland is only allowing 89.0 ppg at home this season. With this being the last game of a long road trip for LA, I expect the Lakers not to mind playing a little bit more half court basketball. Cleveland is 19-6 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, average total in these games is 185.3. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland, 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, and 9-4 in Lakers last 13 games as an underdog. Bet the Under!

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Month on Penn State -1.5
Wisconsin is 0-4 in its last 4 road games and is is a letdown spot after a big win over Illinois. Penn State finds itself ready to bounce back after getting clobbered at Michigan. This is also a big revenge game for the Lions as they lost to the Badgers in early January. Penn State is 15-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this matchup. The Nittany Lions are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Take Penn State.

3* NCAAB Game of the Night on Gonzaga -4.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Gonzaga has the better team this season and will be looking to pay Memphis back for close losses in each of the last 2 seasons. Gonzaga knows how important these high profile games are for NCAA seeding since it plays in a weaker conference and it will seize the opportunity at home here. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Conference USA and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 Saturday games.

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Timberwolves/Rockets UNDER 200.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Every time Houston plays at home you have to give the under a look as the Rockets are 41-26 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons. This is a solid spot to take the Under here. The Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss, 6-2 in Rockets last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 19-9 in Rockets last 28 games as a home favorite. Bet the Under!

5* NCAAB BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR on E. Illinois -14.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. SE Missouri State is just 3-20 on the season and it just received word that its best player will be suspended for this game. That leaves the Redhawks without 16.5 points and 8 boards they won't be able to replace. E. Illinois is playing its best ball of the season right now, having won 7 of 10. E. Illinois has won by 20 points in each of the last 2 meetings in this matchup, including on the road earlier this season. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Ohio Valley, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pound E. Illinois!

4* Major Horizon League Hard Hitter on Butler -2
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Wright State is playing much better ball than it was earlier this season when Butler crushed the Raiders at home by 16. But Wright State catches Butler in a terrible spot today as it is coming off a loss and a weak performance against Detroit. Wright State is way down and Butler gets the road win here. Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUTLER) - off a road win against a conference rival, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 42-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

3* Big 12 Line Mistake on Colorado +21
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. While it isn't showing up in the win column, CU is much improved. It has won or played its opponent very tight in each of its last 5 games and consequently has covered the number in 5 straight. This team beat an Iowa State team that had OU on the ropes last weekend and took Kansas down to the wire before losing by 5 on the road. OU will get Colorado's best shot and it will be good enough to cover this inflated number.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on OKC Thunder +4.5
Portland has struggled on the road at just 12-13 SU and 10-15 ATS on the season and most of its ATS road wins came early on as the Blazers are now just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 on the road. OKC is much improved and yet it continued to be undervalued at home because the public is still fading away on the Thunder. Not a good idea. The Thunder are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Northwest. The Thunder are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. Plus, the Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Thunder.

3* Ivy League Annihilator on Princeton +7.5
The Tigers are not getting the respect they deserve here. They bring a five game winning streak into this one and return home tonight after winning at Dartmouth and Harvard to open Ivy League play. The major key here is that the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Princeton gives the Big Red a run for the money tonight.

3* Thursday Night Bailout (ESPN 2) on Portland +10
The Pilots has a chance to tie the Zags for the WCC lead tonight and that makes for a down to the wire finish. The Zags crushed Portland at home by 17 in the first meetings and Portland will take that loss very personally here. Portland is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 7-0 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more. Portland is 10-1 at home this season and will give Gonzaga all it wants tonight.

5* Sun Belt Conference GOTY on Middle Tennessee State -2
MTSU has projected Sun Belt player of the year Desmond Yates and Denver does not and that will be enough to cover this number tonight. MTSU has better overall athleticism and is the type of bigger team that Denver has struggled against all season. MTSU returns all 5 starters from a team that just missed out on the big dance a season ago and is hungry for a Sun Belt title this time around. MTSU won at Denver as a 3.5-point dog by 7 a season ago and has now won 3 in a row SU and ATS the last 3 seasons. The Blue Raiders will have a huge edge on the glass and are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 10.0 points on average. The Blue Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. We'll get back on track tonight by cashing in this biggie!

4* Major NBA on TNT GOTM on Celtics -5.5
The Celtics have had this one circled since Christmas Day and they get the Lakers in a great spot tonight. Not only will LA miss Andrew Bynum, but they will also miss out on playing with fresh legs. The Lakers are playing back-to-back, 3 in 4, 5 games in 7 nights and all on the road. The most critical factor is that Kobe has expended a lot of energy on this road trip. Boston is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now and has won 4 straight in the Garden over LA, all by 6+ points with 3 of those wins coming by double digits. LA snapped Boston's first long winning streak of the season, and the Celtics won't let it happen again. Plus, KG is going to be very motivated here after missing 2 games with the flu. Boston's defense is superior and that also gives it a big advantage. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 94.9 to 103.0. Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.9 to 94.8. Take the Celtics!

3* SMASH on Heat/Pistons UNDER 180
Detroit is 16-5 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, with the average score totaling 177.4 ppg in these spots. Detroit has gone UNDER in 3 straight games and 5 of the last 7 matchups in this series have gone under. Detroit's defense has really started to pick it up but the offense is yet to match. With Miami in a letdown spot off a blowout win, I'll take the Under here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference GOTY on Pistons -4
This is the best spot I've seen to back the Pistons this season. After going down to the 2 best teams in the East, Boston and Cleveland, the Pistons have had 3 days rest and will be fresh and hungry for a win at home tonight. Detroit has won 5 in a row against the Heat and each of the last 2 have been by double digit margins. The Heat are a lousy 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Wednesday games. Also, Miami is only 2-12 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Oddsmakers are expecting to see a great defensive effort from the Pistons and that means a big win and a cover in my book. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Lakers/Raptors OVER 214.5
LA has scored 110 or more points in 4 straight, and with Bynum out, I expect the offense to continue to push the ball more to get more transition buckets and less baskets in the Triangle Offense. Also, with Bynum out, the defense will suffer, especially on the road where LA is already giving up over 100 ppg this season. Plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in non-conference games are 27-9 the past 5 seasons. Take the Over!

3* SMASH on Clippers/Magic UNDER 199
Without Jameer Nelson, the Magic offense is not going to be a smooth sailing ship for a while. The Clippers offense has really struggled, scoring 95 or less in 6 straight games and they face one of the NBA's elite defensive teams tonight, allowing only 91.4 ppg at home. The Under is 4-0 in the Magic last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater and 10-2 in the Magic last 12 games as a home favorite period. Bet the Under!

5* NCAAB Underdog of the Year on Indiana State +1.5
Indiana State is playing better basketball than its record indicates and after losing 6 in a row will be very hungry for a win at home tonight. Wichita State is 0-7 in true road games this season and this is a matchup which has been dominated by the home team. The Home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Shockers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, 5-18-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. The Sycamores are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Wichita State has lost 5 straight road games in the Valley, all by double digits. Take Indiana State!

4* Major Big Ten BEST BET on Indiana +3.5
Indiana played Iowa to a 5-point game on the road and I like the Hoosiers to beat an offensively challenged Iowa team at home tonight where they are a much better ball club. Iowa is 0-5 on the road in the Big Ten this season and is only averaging 58.1 ppg on the road this season. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Hawkeyes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Take Indiana at home tonight.

5* NCAAB REVENGE GOTY on Bradley -2.5
Great spot for the Braves tonight. UNI has come out of nowhere to take the MVC by storm. It has now won 10 straight which only means to me that it is ready for a letdown tonight. The Braves gave the Panthers all they wanted and more in Cedar Falls on January 21st, eventually losing by 5. The Braves will be out to avenge that loss tonight as well as the setback they just had at Illinois State. Bradley has covered the number in 4 straight. It is 9-2 ATS in the MVC this season and 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS against the Panthers at home in its last 11 matchups. Bradley is 12-1 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Missouri Valley, 36-16-3 ATS in their last 55 home games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Pound the Braves!

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Month on Milwaukee Bucks +5
Both teams are banged up with injuries so I don't see any real advantage there. What I do see is that this line was inflated to begin with because of New Jersey's past dominance of the Bucks and now the public is betting it up to give us even better value. The Bucks have won back-to-back games and come in well rested tonight to face a New Jersey team that is just 9-15 SU and ATS at home this season. The Bucks are 16-11 ATS on the road. The key tonight is that an upset win on the road against Philly last game puts the Nets in a big letdown spot. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW JERSEY) off an upset win as a road underdog, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 45-21 ATS the last 5 seasons. NJ is 1-8 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing these games badly by an average score of 95.2 to 104.3. Lastly, the Nets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Baylor +2
I really like Baylor in the home dog role tonight. The Bears have lost 3 in a row and are coming off a bad one at Mizzou. I look for them to really come out strong tonight. Baylor is 6-0 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 81.5 to 78.7 in these spots. Take the points.

3* Horizon League Game of the Week on Wisconsin Green Bay +2.5
I love Wisconsin Green Bay to knock off Butler tonight. Green Bay sits right behind Butler in the conference and played the Bulldogs to a clos 9-point game on the road January 22. I like Green Bay to have its revenge tonight. WGB is 13-4 ATS in all lined games this season, 7-0 ATS in home lined games this season, 8-0 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season, and 7-0 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season. Take the points.

3* Monday Night NBA BEST BET on Clippers +10.5
The last 2 games in this matchup have been decided by 1 point with the Clippers coming out on top in each. A well-rested Clippers team, which has lost 5 in a row will be hungry for a win tonight. The Clippers have won 4 of the last 5 and are on a 7-2 ATS run in Miami. Miami is 4-14 ATS in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing these games on average by a score of 93.3 to 93.6. Miami is 1-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The average score in these spots is Miami 97.1, Opponent 102.2. Take the points.

5* ESPN Big Monday MONSTER BEST BET on Louisville -2.5
Louisville took Pitt down at home and now it will take down the Huskies. is Louisville is a perfect 9-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. This is because the Cards do apply a great deal of pressure to their opponents and you have to beat them at their own game to be successful. Easier said than done. UConn is 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Playing back-to-back low intensity games hurts the Huskies here as Louisville should come out with more intensity following a battle with W. Virginia. L'ville is 13-2 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons. This is clearly when the Cards play their best ball. Lay the points tonight.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BLOWOUT on Blazers -9
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Portland has 3 days of rest while Utah must play back-to-back and on the road where it has lost 8 of 9. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. And the Jazz are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Portland. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Portland.

5* West Coast Conference GOTY on Portland +4
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. St. Mary's is coming off a very emotionally and physically draining game at Gonzaga and will inevitably come out flat tonight. Portland is 9-1 at home this season and it will be ready for the Gaels tonight. The Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. With St. Mary's Patrick Mills expected to miss a month of action, the Gaels are down their best perimeter shooter. Take the Pilots and the points Saturday.

3* SMASH on Arkansas +11
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Arkansas got a much needed confidence-boosting win against Bama last time out and now the Razors will be ready for a Tigers team they have beaten in their last 2 head to head meetings. The Razorbacks are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and its last win is significant as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Fighting Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Western Michigan -1
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Kent State is 2-8 SU and 1-8 ATS in lined road games this season. Kent is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, and 4-13 ATS in all lined games this season. Take W. Mich at home.

4* Major NCAAB Total of the Week on Washington State/Arizona OVER 115
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This one ends up at least 10 points over the number. 4 straight games in this matchup played at Arizona have gone OVER. Washington State and Arizona are both 4-1 Over in their last 5 games. The OVER is 12-2 in the Wildcats last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 10-2 in the Wildcats last 12 Saturday games. This line looks more like what it should be if the game was at Washington State. Take the over.

5* Friday Night NBA Total of the Year on Clippers/Cavs UNDER 189
The books have set this number just under the 190 mark because it looks attractive to the overs-loving Joe public, but I have this one finishing 10 points under this number. Cleveland just played and emotionally and physically draining game in Orlando last night, and while it now has the incentive to bounce back, you're not going to see Cleveland get up for the Clippers. Each of the last 2 games at Cleveland has gone under the number in this matchup with scores totaling 171 and 182. Defensively, Cleveland has been sensational at home, allowing teams only 89 ppg and that is a big reason why this one stays under. The Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific, 10-3 in Cavaliers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 36-17-1 in Cavaliers last 54 Friday games. Bet the Under!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Celtics -5.5
As much as Detroit would love to win this game, it just isn't the same team without Chauncey Billups and won't be able to get the job done. Boston is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games while the Pistons are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10. Boston is deeper, more talented at nearly every spot on the floor, and it wants it more. The Celtics have already buried the Pistons by double digits twice this season and I like them to do it again tonight. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite period, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Plus, The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Detroit. Take Boston.

3* NBA Bookmaker Trap on Wizards +10.5
Philly's recent winning spree has caught the attention of the public, giving the books a perfect opportunity to set their trap. Philly has won 9 of its last 11 games, but it has only been a favorite 4 times during the stretch with the highest number it laid being 7.5. It has failed to cover each of its last 2 games in the favorite role and the books are clearly asking bettors to lay way to many points with Philly tonight. Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game are 39-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Thursday Night Bailout (ESPN 2) on Saint Mary's +9
St. Mary's has beaten Gonzaga at home each of the past two seasons but it has lost by 11 and 12 points respectively on the road. This St. Mary's team is better than those while this Gonzaga team is less explosive offensively. This is the year that Mary's has an excellent opportunity to beat the Bulldogs away from home. As was the case with Wake Forest last night, St. Mary's has the luxury of getting a full week to prepare for this game. Mary's is also 10-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in lined road games this season. The Gaels are 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season, 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT Late Night SMASH on Suns -1
The Suns ended their tough road trip with back-to-back wins and now they are back at home and ready to show the world that they should not be counted out yet. San Antonio has been on fire, but this will be its sixth game out of its last 8 on the road and I expect its veteran legs to be tired against a Suns team has shown a tendency to push the ball more. The key for Phoenix is momentum and confidence which was created by a pair of blowout road wins preceding this one. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Suns.

4* Major Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Magic -4
The Magic have made great strides this season and now this is a statement game for them to prove they belong in the discussion of the NBA's elite. Orlando is 17-4 at home this season and is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in all meetings with the Cavs the last 3 seasons. The Magic are a deeper team and they have a huge advantage on the interior with Howard and the Cavs have struggled on the road recently with 8 losses this season. Here's the key: Orlando is 13-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.1 to 95.6. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB Upset Special on FIU +4.5
New Orleans is not deserving of laying this many points but we'll gladly take them. New Orleans is 3-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The slow tempo that New Orleans plays at also condones taking the points here. FIU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game after 15+ games. Take the points as I like FIU to pull off the upset tonight.

3* SMASH on Florida State +12
UNC will have enough rust tonight after a 1 week layoff to allow the Noles to cover this number. 3 straight wins by UNC has the Heels back to being overvalued and FSU is not getting the respect it deserves here. It played Duke to an 8-point game at home and I like the Noles to keep this one close as well. UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by just 6.6 points on average. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Monster Line Mistake on Grizzlies +7.5
This is about as bad a line as I have seen all season. I know the Grizz have lost 10 in a row, but the Thunder have not proven in the least that they deserve chalk like this. Memphis has already won in OKC by 6 points this season and it will get up for this game as it sees it as a great chance to end its losing streak. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, with a losing record are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Illinois State +3
17-3 Illinois State gets the job done tonight against the red hot Panthers. UNI has been shooting the hell out of the rock but Illinois State's Guard quickness and ability to close out on UNI's 3 point shooters will make life difficult for the Panthers. UNI is just 5-15 ATS in home games off a road win since 1997. Take the points.

5* NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Hawks/Knicks OVER 207
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The books have set the bar too low here. The Knicks average 107.3 ppg at home but also allow 106.8. The Hawks are a very athletic team and will match the Knicks bucket for bucket tonight. This one is going to be a shootout. The last time we saw these teams play in NY we saw 220 points score and the Hawks have extra incentive to come quick tonight after laying an egg against Miami. Atlanta is 24-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Over.

3* SMASH on Cincy +6
G-town is struggling as its true colors are beginning to show. The Hoyas have lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 7. Cincy has won 3 of 4 and will be happy to return home after 3 straight on the road. Cincy is an awesome 19-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 10-2 ATS on Wednesday games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN GOTW on Wake Forest +1.5
Everything points to Wake here. It is at home in a bounce back spot against a Blue Devils team in a letdown spot, after thrashing Maryland, with a big target on their back. Wake's length and athleticism will really bother the Dukies in this one. Wake is 6-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons and 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.4 to 74.5. Bet Wake.

3* SMASH on Chattanooga +10
Chat has played Davidson tough in the last 2 meetings losing by 7 and 5 points respectively. This team does not fear Curry and company and will keep this one within the number here. Chat is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and 6-1 at home this season. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Lakers -11
The Bobcats are playing better ball but it really hasn't translated on the road where they are only scoring 90.3 ppg. LA averages 108.9 ppg at home. The Lakers are 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 111.6, OPPONENT 97.9. The Bobcats are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Purdue +1
With 4 straight wins in Big Ten play, the Boilermakers are playing like the team we all thought they would be at the start of the season. With 4 straight losses in Big Ten play, Wisconsin clearly is not playing at the level we are used to seeing. Purdue already has a 13-point win over Wiscy this season and I like the Boilers to take down the Badgers again tonight. Purdue is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PURDUE 70.4, OPPONENT 62.9. Purdue is also 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PURDUE 70.4, OPPONENT 59.2. Take Purdue.

3* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on E. Michigan +14.5
Kent State is being severely overvalued here. Kent is 3-13 ATS in all lined games this season, 1-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. E. Mich scored only 45 points in its last game and will be ready to play much better this time out. E. Mich is 15-4 ATS in road games off a home loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. The average score was E MICHIGAN 65.1, OPPONENT 73.5. E. Mich keeps this one well within the number.

3* SMASH on Thunder -1.5
I like the Thunder at home tonight laying a small number. The Thunder are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Eastern Conference. OKC is also 13-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Nets have lost 5 of 6 while the Thunder have won 4 of 7. They are playing better ball than the Nets right now and I like them to get the W tonight.

4* Major NBA Divisional Dagger on Hawks +4
The Hawks have already beaten Miami in Miami by 14 points earlier this season and after losing yesterday to Phoenix they will be hungry to get right back in the win column. Here's the key: Atlanta is 14-4 ATS as an underdog this season while Miami is 6-21 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. You also have to look at Miami in a letdown situation after a big win over Orlando. Miami is 3-15 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 0-9 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. To branch out even farther, plays against home teams (MIAMI) off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home loss are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

5* ESPN Big Monday BOMB on Notre Dame -3
The Irish have played a tough schedule in the early part of the Big East season and have taken some lumps because of it but they are primed and ready to bounce back at home tonight where they are on a 45-1 run. The Irish have more balance on offense and a huge advantage on the interior in this one. Here's the key: Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals since 1997, winning these games by 10.2 points on average, and 11-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses period since 1997, winning these games by 10.0 points on average. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Bulls +5.5
The Bulls have lost 4 straight and will be out for blood against a team they are confident they can hang with. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Expect the Bulls to bounce back Sunday. Take the points.

3* MO Valley SMASH on Missouri State -1.5
UNI is due for a letdown after winning 7 straight and it happens today on the road. Missouri State has begun to play some good basketball and is coming off 2 wins in its last 3 games including an impressive blowout win over Drake. Missouri State has won 8 of the last 11 at home in this matchup and will be out for a little revenge after losing at UNI earlier this month. Missouri State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 72.5 to 51.8 in these spots. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Public Massacre of the Year on WVU -1.5
West Virginia always gets lost in the discussion of the best teams in the Big East, but it is a legit top 15 team in the country and has been rock solid at home at 8-1. Pitt got its bounce back game out of the way by crushing Cuse after losing at Louisville. It won't be able to get up nearly as high for this one. WVU always plays the Panthers tough. Last season it played Pitt to a 1-point game on the road and crushed the Panthers by 14 at home. The Favorite is a strong 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Mountaineers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games. WVU is also 12-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Underdog SMASH on Seton Hall +9
Georgetown has struggled on the road this season and I like a Seton Hall team hungry for a win to get up for this one to keep it within the number. The Hoyas are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Take the points!

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Jazz -2
(condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) The Cavs played an emotionally and physically draining game at Golden State last night and will not be ready to bounce back against one of the best home teams in the NBA. Utah is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, and 12-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Jazz.

5* NCAAB Conference GOTY on Harvard -15
(Condensed writeup do to amount of games handicapped) Harvard was in letdown mode following a big upset win over Boston College and it nearly went down at Dartmouth in its last game. The Crimson have not played since and they'll be ready to show Dartmouth that they don't belong on the same court with them. Dartmouth is 0-6 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 54.6 to 79.4. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Wright State -4
(Condensed writeups do to the amount of games to handicap) Wright State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season, winning by 6.7 ppg on average in these spots. Wright State is 10-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.9 to 48.8. Lay the number.

4* Major ESPN Game of the Week on Notre Dame +2
(condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) The Irish have won 45 straight at home and after back-to-back losses on the road, I expect the Irish to get back in the win column today. UConn is 1-8 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Irish.

3* SMASH on Wisconsin/Illinois OVER 119.5
(Condensed writeup do to the amount of games to handicap) Wisconsin averages 63.4 ppg on the road and the Illini are scoring 73 ppg at home. Illinois' defense has been great at home and that is why this number is down but with Wisconsin hungry for a win, I see this one going over by at least 10. The Over is 5-0 in the Badgers last 5 games following an ATS loss.

5* NCAAB Total of the Year on Memphis/Tennessee UNDER 151
(Condensed writeups do the amount of games to be handicapped) These teams have gone under in each of the past two matchups with scores totaling 128 and 134 while facing totals in the 150's. The 128 total was last year when both teams were better on the offensive end. I see this one going way under as well. The Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 overall, 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 25-10 in Tigers last 35 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Anti-Public Annihilator on Warriors +6.5
The Warrior have proven time and time again to be strong in the home dog role and the books are giving them too many points tonight. All the public sees here is that Cleveland has a way better record, but the Cavs have been shaky on the road lately, winning just 2 of their last 6, with two of those losses coming to the lowly Wizards and Bulls. Cleveland's lack of depth has been its biggest culprit lately as they don't have an interior presence that can score with Big Z out and Delonte West's injury rids them of one of their best perimeter shooters. The Warriors are 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 5-10.5 points and 15-4 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BLOWOUT on Hornets pk
Odds makers have figured in the Hornets' injuries too heavily into this line and we are going to make them pay. All they will need is Chris Paul tonight who has been sensational. The Wolves are only 6-13 SU and 6-12-1 ATS at home this season. New Orleans is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at Minnesota the past 3 seasons and is 12-3 ATS in all games at Minnesota since 1996. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these games by 11.1 ppg. New Orleans is 12-1 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 109.2 to 100.8. New Orleans has cleaned Minnesota's clock in each of the past two meetings, winning by 34 and 32 points respectively. There will be no answer for Chris Paul tonight and the Hornets will roll.

3* Friday Night UNDERDOG SHOCKER on Pacers +1
The public is not giving the Pacers much of a chance tonight but with McGrady not playing for the Rockets and with Artest likely not going either, the Rockets won't have enough weapons to win against the uptempo style of ball that Indiana likes to play. The Pacers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and have won 3 straight at home. They return home after back-to-back losses on the road and that proves to be significant here as Indiana is 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Pacers.

3* NBA REVENGER on Bobcats +4.5
The Suns are struggling, having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a terrible 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games and 0-6-1 ATS over their last 7. You won't believe this but the public is still on them big time and that has Vegas licking its chops. Charlotte has won 4 of 5 and is a perfect 5-0 ATS during the stretch. Phoenix is 3-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season while Charlotte is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Bobcats have two very vivid memories of the Suns blowing them out in each of the last two meetings and I have Charlotte exacting some revenge here. Take the points.

5* Big East MONSTER BEST BET on St. John's pk
After playing Pitt, UConn, and Villanova, the Red Storm get a team at home that they can compete with. St. John's will be hungry for a win tonight and they'll get it against a Cincy team which has really struggled away from home (2-4 SU & ATS this season)! St. John's is a strong 9-3 SU at home and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Big East, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Red Storm are better than their record indicates and showed as much with a big win over Notre Dame this season. Cincy is 9-21 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997 while St. John's is 13-4 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Johnnies!

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192.5
Expect a defensive battle tonight as these teams battle it out for Eastern Conference supremacy. In the first meeting this season, we saw 195 points scored, but that was with Boston busting out for 107 and I don't see that here. Boston just played last night and that should slow it down some, but not enough to be competitive in what the Celtics hope will be a statement game for them. Boston is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15. Boston is 15-6 UNDER in road games this season, 8-0 UNDER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Plays under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win by 10 points or more are 79-39 since 1996. Take the Under!

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake of the Month on Seton Hall +2
The odds makers have favored the wrong team here and I'll gladly pound the Pirates with an insurance bucket in my back pocket. Providence has not done enough on the road to deserve the credit it is receiving. The Friars are only 2-4 on the road this season. Seton Hall has lost 5 straight, but it has played decent basketball. It has just come up against the best teams in the Big East during that stretch. It has covered the number in 3 straight, playing Nova, Notre Dame, and UConn tougher than odds makers expected. Now that it is at home and playing a team it can compete with, I expect a great game from the Pirates here. The Friars are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Seton Hall!

5* NBA Home Dog of the Year on Blazers +1.5
The public is all over the Cavs in this one which makes me feel even better about my side. The Cavs has been sensational at home, but the road has not been nearly as kind. In fact, the Cavs have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. With Big Z out, Ben Wallace banged up, and also without Delonte West, the Cavs are short handed. This was evident in their last defeat against the Lakers and it will be again tonight against a Blazers team that is 15-4 at home. Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in its last 11 home meetings in this matchup. Portland is 32-15 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 10-1 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points!

3* MAC Monster on Buffalo -3
Kent is 3-11 ATS in all lined games this season, 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season, and 1-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Kent is just 2-6 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road this season. Kent has had Buffalo's number in this matchup, but with all 5 starters returning from last year's team, this is where the Bulls get some much needed revenge.

5* Southern Conference Game of the Year on Charleston -10
With all 5 starters returning from a team that won 16 games a season ago, College of Charleston is off to an impressive 14-3 start. Charleston is on the level of Davidson. It only lost to the Wildcats by 4 points. It lost to a very good Temple team by 5 and its other loss was North Carolina. After winning back-to-back games on the road in conference play, I like Charleston to really bust out for a big game tonight at home against an inferior Appalachian State. As a marker, Davidson beat App. St. by 18 on the road and this one will likely wind up at least 20. Charleston is 14-5 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 75.1 to 62.8 in these spots. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Pound Charleston!

4* Major NCAAB Monster Mismatch of the Month on James Madison -10
Towson State has done well in this matchup the past 3 seasons and that's what is holding this line down. The reality is that JM is the much, much better squad this season. JM has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games while Towson has lost 8 of its last 10 against the number. Towson is only 3-10 ATS in all lined games this season and is just 3-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in road lined games. JM is 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in home lined contests. Towson State is only 4-14 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Take James Madison.

3* Big Ten BOMB on Michigan State -12
NW has played very well in each of its last two games, nearly getting Purdue and then knocking off Minnesota. But those games were at home and this Wildcat team has not been nearly as tough on the road. In fact, NW is just 1-4 SU and ATS on the road and was blown by 29 at Wisconsin in its last road contest. The Badgers only allowed 45 points in that game and you can expect the Spartans to hold the Cats down as well. Michigan State is perennially one of the best defensive teams in the country but this Michigan State squad is also a little more explosive than some we have seen recently, averaging 80.0 ppg at home. Michigan State has won 19 of the last 20 in this matchup since 1997 and 8 straight at home during that span. Michigan State is 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997 and 26-9 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB BLOWOUT of the Month on Penn State -2.5
Michigan's true colors are starting to show as the Wolverines have now lost 2 in a row. They rely on the three-point shot way too much and that will continue to cost them in Big Ten play, especially on the road. Penn State is 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season and is a strong 10-3 SU at home on the year. Michigan is 3-11 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 13.0 ppg. Michigan is also 3-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 2-10 ATS versus teams that can hit them with a dose of their own medicine (in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons). Penn State wins this one by double digits.

3* NBA Underdog Dagger on Pacers +7.5
It will be much tougher for this veteran Spurs team to play back-to-back than this young Pacers team tonight. The Pacers have been playing very good basketball, covering the spread in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 while the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. San Antonio is 15-7 at home but only 8-13 ATS in those games. Conversely, the Pacers are just 6-17 on the road, but 13-10 ATS in those games. Indiana is 13-3 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 106.1 to 105.3 in these spots. SA is just 7-20 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Pacers.