5* NO BRAINER on Nuggets +6½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* NO BRAINER on Heat +3 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Celtics -1½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Rockets +6½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Lakers/Rockets under 219½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Bucks +4½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Raptors +2 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Bucks +2½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Nuggets +9 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Heat +5½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Clippers -8½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Bucks -5½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Raptors -1½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Rockets/Thunder over 225½ -101

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Thunder +5 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Clippers -6½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Blazers +7½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Clippers -8 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Jazz +1½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Bucks -12½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Mavs +6½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Pacers +4½ -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Jazz/Nuggets under 216 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Nuggets +3½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Lakers -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Heat -1½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Wizards +8 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Heat -4 -105

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on 76ers +150

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Clippers/Mavs under 230½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* BEST BET on Celtics -8½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Nuggets/Spurs over 225 -113

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Heat +145

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Thunder -6 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Wizards/Nets under 236 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on 76ers/Pacers over 211½ -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Kings/Spurs over 216 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on Lakers -4 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

3* BEST BET on Jazz/Pelicans over 224½ -106

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

5* BEST BET on 76ers GC -2½ -115

Analysis will be posted shortly

5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on Xavier -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Musketeers as a small favorite against DePaul in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. Xavier won both meetings between the two teams in the regular season. They won the first meeting on the road by 8 and then by 9 at home. Both times the Musketeers defense made it tough on the Blue Demons to score. 

I see no reason to expect a different outcome, especially given how bad DePaul has been in the Big East Tournament under head coach Dave Leitao. Blue Demons have made 4 appearances under Leitao and have lost all 4, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. DePaul is also just 4-15 ATS last 19 as a neutral court dog of 6 or less. 

Another key factor here is motivation. Xavier absolutely has to have this game and likely at least one more to have a legit shot at an at-large bid (currently projected as one of the first four teams out). Musketeers could also catch a big break, as DePaul's top player Paul Reed has missed the last 3 and is listed as questionable. Take Xavier! 

5* NCAAB - Late Night NO-BRAINER Top Play on St. Peter's -2 -115

Easy play here on the Peacocks as a slim 2-point favorite against the Gaels in Wednesday's quarterfinal matchup out of the MAAC Tournament. St. Peter's has a big edge in rest in this one. Peacocks haven't played since beating Iona in the regular-season finale last Friday. The Gaels on the other hand had to open up MAAC Tournament play yesterday against Canisius. 

While Iona won and covered against Canisius as a 4.5-point favorite, the Gaels are just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a neutral site underdog. As for St. Peter's, they are headed into postseason play on a roll. Peacocks went 11-2 over their last 13 games. 

St. Peter's is 16-5 ATS last 21 off a SU win and have covered 6 straight games on a neutral floor. Peacocks were tops in the MAAC in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They allowed just 62.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting in conference play. Iona has not fared well agaisnt strong defensive teams, going just 2-8 ATS this season vs teams who held opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take St. Peter's! 

4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Nuggets -1½ -109

The fact that Denver is favored on the road against the Mavs really tells you all you need to know. The books set this line, knowing the betting public will be all over Dallas at this price. They are making it pretty clear that they like the Nuggets to win this game and I agree. 

This is not a good spot at all for the Mavs, who have not been playing well. Dallas has lost two straight and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Big key here is the Mavs will be playing on no rest after last night's 109-119 loss at San Antonio. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

Dallas is also just 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-7 ATS last 7 games at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Denver! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +5½ -105

I like the value here with the Huskies as a decently priced dog in their first round matchup against Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament. Washington ended up finishing last in the Pac-12, but were far from the worst team in the conference. Huskies are sitting 53rd in KenPom's rankings, which is better than 7 other teams in the Pac-12. 

You also have to like how Washington closed out the regular-season, winning 3 of their last 4 games, including a 69-63 win on the road at Arizona in the finale. Huskies really should have swept the Wildcats, as they gave away a game at home to Arizona in a 72-75 loss. 

Covering on a neutral site has been a big problem for Arizona. Wildcats are 0-7 ATS last 7 neutral site games and 0-6 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Arizona is also just 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road off a loss. Underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings in the series. Take Washington! 

5* NCAAB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State -4½ -110

Easy play here on the Wolfpack as a small favorite in Wednesday's action out of the ACC Tournament. NC State got a first round bye and will have a big rest advantage here over Pitt, who had to play yesterday against Wake Forest. 

Panthers were able to knock off the Demon Deacons 81-72 in a high-scoring game and while they needed a late 2nd half run to pull away. Pitt just doesn't have the depth to play well on no rest. Panthers basically only play 7 guys and 4 of those logged 35+ minutes on Tuesday. Makings matters even worse is the fact that NC State likes to run, as they finished 3rd in the ACC in tempo. 

Pitt ranked just 10th in the ACC in defensive efficiency and were 14th in effective field goal defense. The only thing that really saved them is turnovers, but that's negated here by a NC State team that had the 5th best turnover rate in the conference. I not only think the Wolfpack cover the small spread, I like them to win here in a blowout. Take NC State! 

3* NBA - No Doubt VEGAS ATS BLOWOUT on Mavs -3 -109

The Mavs are definitely worth a look as a slim road favorite at San Antonio. These two teams have already met three times this season and Dallas has won all three meetings. I look for them to no have no problem finishing off the season sweep against the short-handed Spurs. 

San Antonio is down their top two big men in LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. They area also going to be without another key contributor in Dejounte Murray. Dallas should be able to dominate the glass in this one. Not to mention their offense should pick apart a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 121 ppg on 49% shooting over their last 5 games. 

Mavs are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 off a loss and 16-4-1 ATS last 21 as a road favorite. They have also covered 11 of the last 14 meetings with the Spurs. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1 -108

No reason to overthink this one. Pitt finished the regular-season on a 7-game losing streak and 5 of the 7 defeats came by double-digits. Hard to believe this team was once sitting at 4-4 in ACC play (finished 6-14). 

I get Wake Forest had the same record in ACC play, but unlike Pitt they played awful at the beginning of the year and got better as the season went on. Demon Deacons started out just 2-8 in league play before a 4-6 finish that included a win over Duke. Not to mention Wake Forest went into Pitt and beat the Panthers in the only meeting between the two. 

No a big concern for revenge, as Pitt is just 10-23 ATS last 33 when revenging a loss. Panthers are also 3-14 ATS last 17 when they come in having lost 2 or more games in a row. Demon Deacons are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games on a neutral floor. Take Wake Forest! 

5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne +2 -103

Easy play here on the Mastodons at basically a pick'em against North Dakota in the semifinals of the Summit Conference Tournament. IUPU Ft. Wayne followed up their strong showing on the road in the regular-season finale (lost by 6 at Oral Roberts as a 10.5-point dog) with a 77-74 win over South Dakota State on Saturday as a 7-point dog. 

The Mastodons are now a strong 4-1 ATS last her last 5 games as a dog. They are also 28-13 ATS last 41 off an outright win as a dog. The Fighting Hawks also won as a dog in their first game of the Summit Tournament, but they are just 1-5 STS last 6 off a SU win. 

Big factor here that favors IUPU Ft Wayne is that North Dakota does not force a lot of turnovers. Fighting Hawks rank just 337th in the country in defensive turnover rate. That's huge for a Mastodons offense that doesn't have a traditional true point guard. Take Ft Wayne! 

4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Hornets +4½ -110

Easy play here on the Hornets as a decently priced road dog against the Hawks. Charlotte has really been playing some of their best basketball over the last month. Hornets are 6-5 SU over their last 11 games. 

Even more important is they are covering the number. Charlotte has cashed a winning ticket in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 overall. Most recently beating the Rockets 108-99 as a 8-point dog. 

As for the Hawks, they come in having lost and failed to cover 3 straight. Atlanta will have the home court edge, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have several guys banged up or dealing with a bit of the flu bug. Jeff Teague, De'Andre Hunter and DeAndre Bembry are all questionable to play. 

Hornets have gone 15-5 ATS this season vs bad teams like the Hawks who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Charlotte! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Toledo -8½ -110

The Rockets are definitely worth a look to cover the spread at home against Western Michigan. Toledo finished with a mere 8-10 record in MAC play, but that's a bit misleading in terms of how the Rockets are playing. Toledo has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes a 9-point road win over Western Michigan. 

While the Rockets are surging to the finish line, Western Michigan went just 2-6 over their final 8 games. Broncos ended the year with an ugly 68-85 loss to rival Central Michigan, who came into that game on a 9-game losing streak. 

Rockets went 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Broncos are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Take Toledo! 

3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Kings under 228½ -110

I really like the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Kings. Toronto's offense has been potent here of late, scoring 118 or more in each of their last 3, but the last two came against the Suns and Warriors. 

I just think we are going to see a bit of an uninterested Raptors' team in this one. This will be Toronto's 4th straight on the road in their 5-game west coast trip, which concludes with a much bigger game tomorrow night in Utah. 

Kings also figure to be playing at a much slower pace than normal, as they will be on no rest after a up-tempo game last night in Portland. Sacramento also just got back one of their top defensive players in Richaun Holmes. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -4½ -110

I know Miami has had their struggles on the road this season, but I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Heat. Washington is somehow still in the playoff mix and are fresh off a win and cover at home against Atlanta. I think it has the Wizards getting to much love here against what I expect to be a desperate Heat team off a loss at New Orleans. 

Miami has been a good team to back off a loss, going 15-6 ATS after defeat this season. Washington is also a team they have had a lot of success against. Heat are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 trips to DC. Wizards just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a win and 1-7 ATS last 8 times they have had to play on Sunday. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Wichita State -6½ -110

Most will be looking to take the points here with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes can clinch the outright AAC regular-season title with a win and already beat Wichita State at home earlier this season. Much like the books, I'm not a believer in Tulsa.

I look for the Shockers to win big here at home, where they are 12-2 on the season. Wichita State is also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against the Golden Hurricane. I just don't see Tulsa being able to score enough to keep it close. Golden Hurricane are only averaging 63.5 ppg on 41% shooting from the field and 25% from deep on the road this season. Take Wichita State! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF -7½ -110

Easy play here on UCF at home against the Pirates, as the Knights should have no problem winning by double-digits in this one. East Carolina is a mere 3-11 over tehir last 14 games and just got annihilated on their home floor 84-63 by UConn. 

UCF won the first meeting between these two by just 4 at ECU, but that game felt a lot more lopsided. Knights shot 48% to the Pirates 41% and were even on the boards, free throws and turnovers. Seeing how ECU is just 2-11 on the road and giving up 75 ppg away from home, this one figures to get ugly in a hurry. 

Pirates are 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons in toad games against a marginal winning team that has won between 51% to 60% of their games and are losing in this spot by an 15.5 ppg. Take UCF! 

3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors +2½ -110

This is just too good a price to pass up with Golden State. The Warriors are a team that just got back their best player in Steph Curry and despite a sub-par shooting night, he still managed to score 25 in his first game back from injury. I think Curry makes GS a dangerous team, as I think we are going to see his return spark the entire team into playing well. 

It's hard to not like them in this spot. 76ers were able to win at Sacramento last time out, but no way can this team be trusted on the road without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. 

Philadelphia is 6-20-1 ATS last 27 road games, 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a win by 10 or more points. Take Golden State! 

4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS BLOWOUT  on Oklahoma +2 -115

I like the Sooners to go into Fort Worth and cover as a small dog against the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two by a score of 83-63. It was complete domination, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding TCU to 38%. 

One of the big reasons that I don't see the script being flipped with a change in venue is the Sooners ability to take care of the basketball. The Horned Frogs defense really relies on their ability to force turnovers, as they struggle to get stops when they don't take the ball away. TCU is just 5-15 ATS this season vs teams who average 14 or fewer turnovers/game (Sonners average just 11). 

Oklahoma has also dominated this series more than just that first meeting this season. Sooners have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams. They have won 6 of their last 8 trips to TCU. Take Oklahoma! 

5* NCAAB - Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 -115

I absolutely love the Trojans laying a slim 3-points at home against rival UCLA. The Bruins have caught fire in the second half of the season and come into this game having won 7 straight, but I think it has them getting way to much respect in this one. 

USC enters off back-to-back impressive home wins over Arizona (57-48) and Arizona State (71-61). That's now 4 straight home wins for the Trojans, who are 13-2 on their home floor this season. The defense has been outstanding during their last 4 at home, as they held all 4 teams to 61 or fewer. 

Let's also not forget that USC went on the road and beat UCLA by 11 earlier this season. I get the Bruins are playing better now, but they could do next to nothing offensively in that game, shooting just 38% from the field and 3-13 from deep. 

UCLA is just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road after 2 or more wins in a row. The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Take USC! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money Total HEAVY HITTER on UTEP/Rice over 139½ -109

Rice and UTEP should have no problem eclipsing the total. This will actually be the third meeting between these two this season. Both of the first two games went under, but both teams shot poorly in both games and still each had at least 130 points. 

OVER has been a strong play when the Owls are laying points at home, cashing in 4 straight. OER is also a staggering 8-0 in Rice's last 8 games when playing with double-revenge and the average combined score in these games is 157.1. OVER is also 8-1 in the Owls last 9 off 2 or more wins in a row and 32-15 in UTEP's last 47 after allowing 65 or less in 3 straight games. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Georgia/LSU under 159½ -115

The UNDER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's SEC matchup that has LSU hosting Georgia. Really big game for the Tigers, who need to win to lock up a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. That should lead to a big effort defensively from LSU sho should also be motivated to play well after giving up 99 at Arkansas last time out. 

Georgia comes in off 14-point home loss at Florida, where they managed just 54 points and that game is worth noting. UNDER is 16-7 in the Bulldogs last 23 off a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 in their last 9 after playing a game as a home dog. 

UNDER is also 6-2-1 in the Tigers last 9 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 13-3 in LSU's last 16 home games after playing in a game with a combined score of 175 or more. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Rutgers/Purdue under 127½ -110

Easy play on the UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Purdue and Rutgers. These two combined for 133 in the first meeting at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights won 70-63. I think that result has created value with the number this time around. Total for that first meeting was just 120.5. 

Purdue is only giving up 59.8 ppg on 39% shooting at home this season and Rutgers' offense hasn't exactly traveled well. Big reason why the Scarlet Knights are a mere 1-10 on the road. Boilermakers also like to slow the game down. They are dead last in the Big Ten in tempo and 334th overall in that department. 

Both teams rank in the Top 4 of the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and are both in the bottom half of the conference in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on George Mason/Fordham under 120½ -110

This has the makings of a very ugly offensive game, which tends to be the case anytime Fordham is involved. The Rams play solid defense, as they are giving up just 63.5 ppg in conference games and are 5th in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. The problem is they can't score. Fordham averages just 55.2 ppg in league play (dead last in the A-10 in offensive efficiency). 

George Mason figures to have a hard time scoring in this one. Patriots aren't as bad as the Rams, but are one of the worst offenses in the A-10. Big problem here is Fordham does a great job of forcing teams to take 3-pointers and the outside shot is not a strength of George Mason. They only shoot 30% from deep and average a mere 6 made 3-pointers/game. 

UNDER is 10-3 in Fordham's last 13 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor +1½ -109

Easy play here on the Bears getting points at West Virginia. I get the Mountaineers were able to snap a 4-game skid with a win at ISU on Tuesday, but no way should they be favored over the likes of Baylor, especially when you take into account what happened in the first meeting and how these two matchup. 

The Bears absolutely dominated West Virginia, defeating the Mountaineers by a final of 70-59. The final score does not do justice to how lopsided that game was. Baylor was up 53-25 in the 2nd half. They shot 52% from the field, while limited the WVU to 35%. 

You also have to think the Bears are going to be motivated to win here. With a win and a Kansas loss on the road at Texas Tech, Baylor would earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title. Bears are 6-0 ATS this season on the road vs quality teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird Total ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin/Indiana under 130 -110

The UNDER is worth a look in Saturday's early Big 10 action that has Wisconsin visiting Indiana. These two combined for 148 when they played way back in early December. That was simply a result of the Badgers going off, as they shot 54% from the field and 40% from deep. 

I'm confident they will regress in the rematch. Wisconsin is only averaging 67.4 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, so that was clearly an outlier. They are even worse on the road, where they are only scoring 60.9 ppg on 40% shooting (only 30% from deep). Indiana's defense may rank bottom half in the Big Ten, but they are giving up just 66.9 ppg on 42% shooting at home, where they are 15-3 compared to 4-8 on the road. 

No reason to expect a ton offensively from the Hoosiers. While the Badgers' offense hasn't traveled well, their defense has. Wisconsin also plays at one of the slowest paces in the conference.

UNDER is 10-4 in their 14 road games this season. UNDER is also 14-5 in Badgers last 19 as a dog and 13-3 in Indiana's last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pepperdine -1 -110

Hard not to like Pepperdine at basically a pick'em against Santa Clara in the 2nd round of the WCC Tournament. Big rest advantage for the Waves, who got a first round bye, while the Broncos had to play Portland yesterday. Note that Portland (3 wins) is the only team Santa Clara has beat since Jan. 25. 

Playing on no rest this time a year is tough on a college team and I just don't feel that it's taken into the line enough. Pepperdine won both meetings between these two in the regular-season. They won in OT at Santa Clara and then won by 14 at home. Both times the Waves reach 90 points. 

Pepperdine is 7-1 ATS on the season in road games against solid teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Waves are also 10-2 ATS last 12 after 2 or more losses (lost last two). Take Pepperdine! 

5* NCAAB - MAC TOTAL PLAY OF THE YEAR  on Ball State/Northern Illinois under 126½ -110

I absolutely love the UNDER in Friday's MAC West showdown that has Ball State visiting Northern Illinois. These two are 1-2 in their respective division and both come in playing well. Ball State has won 3 of their last 4, while the Huskies have gone 9-3 in their last 12. 

Both teams were outstanding defensively last time out. The Cardinals held Central Michigan to just 68 points on 38% shooting, while NIU limited one of the best offenses in the MAC in Toledo to just 50 points on 30% shooting. 

These two teams played once already back on Feb. 11 and that game saw a combined score of just 122. I think they will be lucky to get to 120 in the rematch. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Ball State's last 10 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is also 11-3 in Northern Illinois last 14 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less and 7-1 in their last 8 at home off a win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +3 -115

I like this spot with Atlanta as a slim road dog at Washington. I'm just not buying the Wizards as a playoff team and I think some of that talk is playing into this great price with the Hawks here. You also are getting Atlanta on the cheap after they were just annihilated 127-88 at home by Memphis. 

Thing about that loss to the Grizzlies is they aren't the first team that Memphis has done that to here of late. Grizzlies have also held the Lakers to 88 and the Nets to 79 over their last 3 games. Prior to that Atlanta was playing well coming off back-to-back wins.

Washington has lost their last two, most recently losing by 21 at Portland. While the Wizards will be at home here, it's not the greatest spot. They only got one day to regroup from their 4-game west coast trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Hawks on the other hand have had the last 3 days off. Take Atlanta! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Weber State -4 -110

I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Vandals. The books have really struggled to price Idaho here of late. The Vandals are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. It's gotten worse down the stretch, as they have lost and failed to cover each of their last 5 games, losing all 5 by double-digits. 

Not only does the current form favor Weber State, but this is a great matchup for the Wildcats. Idaho struggles to score inside and Weber State defends the 2-point shot well. If the outside shot isn't falling the Vandals are in big trouble, because the Wildcats are going to score. Weber State shoots 51% on 2-point shots, third best in the Big Sky, and that's an area the Vandals struggle to defend. 

Weber State has failed to cover their last two games, but that's almost more of a positive than a negative. Wildcats are 23-9-2 ATS last 34 off a failed cover and 8-1 ATS last 9 after 2 straight games where they didn't cover. Take Weber State! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UMKC +3½ -109

Easy play on the Kangaroos getting points against the Wolverines. I get Utah Valley has the home court edge, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 games with those two wins coming at home against bottom feeders Cal St. Bakersfield and Grand Canyon. 

UMKC has won 3 straight and their strong play goes back even further than that, as they are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games. You also have to like the fact the Kangaroos won the earlier meeting between the two and did so jumping out to a 30-19 lead at the half. UMKC's defense held the Wolverines to just 34.5% shooting and forced them into 18 turnovers. 

Kangaroos are 16-5 ATS last 21 games off a win and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog, including 3-0-1 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Utah Valley is 3-7 ATS last 10 off a loss and a dreadful 3-11 ATS last 14 as a favorite (2-8 ATS last 10 as a home favorite). Take UMKC! 

4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Clippers +1 -110

I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a slim 1-point dog at Houston. The Rockets have been playing much better since their move to small ball, but did just lose at New York as a double-digit favorite on Monday. They have shot just 42% from the field in each of their last 2 games. 

I just feel like the Clippers are playing the basketball of any team since the All-Star break. The additions of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson have been huge. LA is arguably the deepest team in the league and just think they will be able to not only defend Harden and Westbrook, but wear down the Rockets with their onslaught of talent. 

LA has covered 21 of their last 33 against high-scoring teams that are averaging 110+ points/game and are 46-29 (61%) last 75 road games vs teams who allow 106+ points/game. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NCAAB - MVC Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Drake -2½ -110

The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a small favorite against the Redbirds. Drake had a tough finish to the regular-season, losing 3 straight, including a 53-57 loss at Illinois State that started the skid and a ugly 43-70 loss at home to UNI to end it. 

I just trust the Bulldogs a lot more in this spot. Drake was the much better team in MVC play at 8-9, as Illinoi State went just 5-13 with two of their 5 wins coming against Evansville, who finished 0-18 in league play. 

Drake is 15-5-1 ATS last 21 neutral site games and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 neutral site games when listed as a favorite. They are also 4-0 ATS last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss by more than 20 points.

Adding to this is a solid system in favor of the Bulldogs. Teams playing with revenge from a loss where they scored 60 or fewer and off a conference loss by 10 or more are 129-75 (63%) ATS if playing on a neutral site. Take Drake! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dayton -3½ -109

The Flyers are worth a look here as a small road favorite against Rhode Island. Dayton has proven to be in a class of their own in the A-10. They are 16-0 in league play (no other team has fewer than 4 losses) and have made it clear they want to go undefeated in league play. A big reason for that is they feel if they run the table and win the A-10 Tournament, they got a legit shot at a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. 

That's more than enough motivation for me to lay the short number with the Flyers. Especially with how poorly Rhode Island has been playing down the stretch. The Rams were at one points 10-1 in league play, but have lost 3 of their last 5, including a 14-point loss at Dayton and most recently a shocking 10-point loss at home to St Louis (never led). Their two wins were both against bottom feeders in St. Joe's and Fordham (only won by 1-point). 

Rams are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home against a team with a winning road record, while the Flyers are 10-3 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take Dayton! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +2½ -115

The simple fact that Florida State is basically a pick'em in this spot against an unranked Notre Dame team says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Seminoles. Anytime something looks too good to be true, especially this late in the year, it typically is, which is why I like the Irish to win and cover. 

We did just see FSU lose at Clemson as a mere 3.5-point favorite on Saturday and you have to wonder if the pressure of winning the school's first ever ACC title in hoops is a bit too much for them. 

As for the Irish, their NCAA Tournament hopes took a massive hit with a loss at Wake Forest, but a win here could get them back into the conversation. Notre Dame is still trending in the right direction with 7 wins in their last 10 games. 

Their ability to take care of the ball (No. 2 in turnover rate) is huge against Florida State, who relies a lot on forcing their opponents into mistakes. We also saw the Irish go on the road and lose by just one-points (84-85) at FSU earlier this season. 

Irish are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home, 3-1-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and the underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Notre Dame! 

3* NBA - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Cavs +2½ -105

A lot of people are going to look at this line and blindly back the Celtics at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cavs. Those that do will likely regret it. Boston isn't to show up for this game, but it's going to look nothing like the team that has started out 41-19 in their first 60 games. 

Both Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker are listed as OUT for this game. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are also both listed as doubtful and there's a chance Marcus Smart ends up missing the game due to a suspension. 

On top of that, Boston will be playing on no rest after playing at home last night against the Nets, which they lost 120-129 in OT. Playing extra minutes was the last thing they needed and that game could be one that's hard to get over, as they allowed 51 points in the 4th quarter to let the game get to OT. Take Cleveland! 

5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -2 -110

I absolutely love the value here with the Billikens as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Patriots. St. Louis has saved their best basketball of the season for the stretch run and this is simply too good a price to pass up. 

Billikens have won 3 straight and are off a dominating 72-62 win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog. St. Louis never trailed and hit 53% from the field. Marking their 5th straight game where they have shot 50% or better from the field. Hard to see the Billikens slowing down in this one. George Mason is allowing A-10 opposing teams to shoot 47% from the field and just let Duquesne connect on 56% in their last game. 

Also the one thing that the Patriots offense does well is offensive rebound, but that will be negated here, as St Louis is No. 2 in the conference in defensive rebounding. 

Billikens have covered 10 of their last 13 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. George Mason is 6-20 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a home dog. Take St. Louis! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Massachusetts +2½ -110

The Minutemen are worth a look here as a slim road dog against the Explorers. While UMass is coming in off an ugly 24-point loss at Richmond, they had won 3 straight prior to laying an egg against the Spiders. 

One of the big reasons things went south against Richmond is the Spiders are a team that takes great care of the ball (No. 1 in A-10 in turnover pct.) and UMass really needs their pressure to force mistakes for them to have success.

Good news for the Minutemen is the Explores are a team that struggle to take care of the ball. La Salle ranks dead last in the A-10 in turnover rate, coughing it up 21.6% of the time. 

These two played back in January and UMass won that matchup 77-69. Their offense had no problem exploiting the Explorers defense, shooting 49% from the field. La Salle on the other hand shot just 40%. 

Another huge factor here is La Salle just had a starter, Ed Croswell leave the team. Croswell averaged 10.0 ppg (leading scorer averages 10.4 and only 3 guys in double-figures). They could also be without guard Scott Spencer. Take UMass! 

3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Xavier +5 -110

I like the Musketeers getting a decent number here on the road against the Friars. These two teams met up about a month ago with Xavier winning a defensive battle 64-58. Some might think Providence is primed for revenge with the Friars having won 4 straight, but the Musketeers have won 4 of their last 5 on the road with the only loss by a mere 5-points at Butler. 

This is also a brutal spot for Providence. I know the Friars are fighting for their postseason lives right now, but it's going to be near impossible for them to not suffer some kind of letdown after their 58-54 upset win at Villanova on Saturday. 

Friars are also a team that thrives a lot more in the role of the underdog. Providence is just 18-31 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, including a mere 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite. Road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series with the underdog cashing in 5 of the last 6. Take Xavier! 

4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans -11 -110

I got no problem laying the big number with the Pelicans at home. I look for New Orleans to make easy work of the Timberwolves. The Pelicans will be eager to take the court after a disappointing 4th quarter in Sunday's 114-122 loss to the Lakers. This is a much improved team with Zion in the mix. They are 9-5 in their last 14 with 4 of those losses coming against the Lakers (twice), Rockets and Bucks. 

Minnesota is a bit of a mess. They traded away Wiggins and brought in a ton of new pieces. They are trying to figure things out on the fly without their best player in Towns, who is still out with a wrist injury. They are struggling to win games. They are 1-5 since the break with all 5 losses by double-digits. 

Rest is also a huge factor here. Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight at home and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. Minnesota on the other hand will be playing their 5th road game in their last 6 overall and their 6th game in the last 10 days overall. Take New Orleans! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ohio +8½ -109

I absolutely love the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. The Zips come in tied with Bowling Green for the top record in MAC play at 12-4. Akron has already locked up a first round by in the MAC tournament. There's really no incentive here for the Zips to go all out in this matchup. 

As for Ohio, they are still fighting for seeding and need to stay in the Top 9 of the conference to make sure they get their first game at home in the MAC Tournament. Bobcats are also a team that is surging down the stretch. Ohio is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (4 straight covers) in their last 7 games. They are 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. 

Bobcats only lost by 2 (86-88) at home to the Zips earlier this season, so they know they can compete with Akron. An outright win here is not out of the question. Zips just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take Ohio! 

5* NCAAB - Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock +3½ -110

I love the value here with Little Rock getting points on the road against the Panthers. The perception here is that the Trojans won't show up for this game because they just wrapped up the Sun Belt regular-season title and will be looking ahead to the conference tournament. 

While it's certainly not a do-or-die scenario for Little Rock, I don't think they are going to just not show up. Last thing they want to do is kill their momentum by losing this game. This is a team that's 100% locked in on making the NCAA Tournament. 

The other big thing here is that there's not a ton for Georgia State to play for either. The fact that this game doesn't mean anything to the Trojans takes away some of the motivation for the Panthers to play their best.

This is their finale game at home, which often can be big cause it's senior night. However, Georgia State is a young team. They only got one senior on the team that plays in Damon Wilson. He's a decent contributor (4th scoring option), but I don't think they are going to go all out for his final home game. 

Trojans are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Trojans are also 6-0 ATS this season when off a conference win by 10 or more (beat Lafayette 91-69 last time out). Take Arkansas-Little Rock! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY  on Wisc-Milwaukee +6 -109

Give me the Panthers and the points in their 1st round matchup of the Horizon League Championship against Youngstown State. These two teams just played each other in the regular-season finale. A game the Penguins won on the road by 4-points. It was a bit of payback, as the Panthers won the first meeting at Youngstown 75-73 in OT. 

Getting 6-points in a game that you can expect to be close is just too good to pass up. I would this line closer to the Penguins -3, simply because it's on their home floor. Milwaukee is 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a home loss, while Youngstown is 25-43 (36.7%) last 68 as a home favorite of 6 or less and have failed to cover 6 straight off a win by 6 or less. Take Wisc-Milwaukee! 

5* NCAAB - Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State/Weber State over 139½ -110

Easy play here on the OVER 139.5 in Monday's matchup of Big Sky bottom feeders Weber State and Idaho State. 

These two teams faced off back on Jan. 16. The Wildcats defeated the Bengals 76-68 for a combined score of 144, easily eclipsing the total of 133.5. Books have adjusted, but not enough. Big system supporting a play on the OVER. 

OVER is 112-60 (65%) over last 5 season when the road team is revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more, as long as it's a matchup of two bad teams that have won between 20% - 40% of their games.

OVER is also 12-1 in Idaho State's last 13 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. OVER is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Hawks over 239½ -109

I really like the value here with the OVER 239.5. This is a massive number for a NBA total, but with the style in which the Hawks play, these two should have no problem eclipsing the mark. 

Atlanta basically plays to outscore their opponent, as they want to run and gun behind 2nd-year All-Star Trae Young. Hawks are No. 4 in the NBA in pace and No. 28 in defensive efficiency. They are No. 29 in points/allowed at 119.1 ppg, barely in front of the last place Wizards (119.9 ppg). 

While they only average 114 ppg at home, they come in averaging 122.6 ppg in their last 5. Hard to see Memphis slowing them down. Grizzlies are giving up 116.6 ppg on the road. Memphis also wants to play fast, as they are No. 7 in pace. 

OVER is 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 on the road against a team with a losing home record. OVER is 21-8 in Atlanta's last 29 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-4 in their last 15 off a win and 5-0 last 5 off a win by more than 10 points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 -109

Stanford is definitely worth a look here as a pick'em at home against the Buffaloes. The line really says it all. Colorado is the ranked team and yet they are the dog in the fight. I couldn't agree more. 

For one, the Cardinal are extremely tough to beat at home. Stanford is 13-4 at home this season and are fresh off a 8-point win and cover at home against the Utes. Cardinal have won 3 straight as they are surging after a midseason funk that saw them lose 7 of 8. 

As for Colorado, they are off back-to-back losses. Most recently losing by 14 at Cal as a 8.5-point favorite. Buffaloes are not a great road team and are shooting just 40% from the field away from home. Colorado has also been overvalued by the books a ton of late. Buffaloes are a miserable 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. 

Colorado is 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road underdog, while the Cardinal are 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a conference win. Take Stanford! 

4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs -6½ -110

I got no problem laying the points with Dallas on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are still without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns and are trying to piece together all the new pieces they acquired at the trade deadline. 

Winning is just not a priority for this team and that's pretty evident by the lack of defense they are playing. Minnesota has allowed 4 straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field and have not held an opponent under 46% from the field in a month. 

Dallas is not the team you want to be facing without a defense, especially with the Mavs coming off a loss at Miami last time out. Dallas is scoring 117.4 ppg on the road this season and are averaging 119 ppg over their last 5. Mavs are also 11-3-1 ATS this season when listed as a road favorite. Take Dallas! 

5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109

I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday. 

Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5. 

Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule. 

Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple! 

3* NBA - Prime Time ATS KNOCKOUT on Rockets +2 -105

The books are begging you to take the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at home and I'm showing close to 70% of the public taking the bait. That is reason enough on its own to be looking at Houston as a small dog. 

I know the Celtics are a talented team, but taking on the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook is a tall task without starting point guard Kemba Walker, even at home. You also have to factor in how well Houston is playing. Rockets have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Houston is a very streaky team and when they are hot they tend to stay hot for long stretches. 

Rockets are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-3 ATS last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Houston! 

4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware -3½ -109

I got no problem here laying a small number with the Blue Hens at UNC Wilmington. Delaware has lost 3 of their last 4, which is playing into the number, but those 3 losses have come against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league. 

All that does is increase the likelihood that the Blue Hens are going to show up here with a big effort and that's really all we need. If Delaware comes to play, they should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Blue Hens beat the Seahawks by 14 at home and the final score doesn't do justice. Delaware had a 27 point lead at one point in the 2nd half. 

Blue Hens are 38-19 ATS last 57 road games after losing 3 of their last 4 and are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings of this series. Take Delaware! 

4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Morehead State +5 -110

I really like the value here with the Eagles catching points on the road against Eastern Kentucky. This might seem like a favorable price to back the Colonels at home given they are 11-6 in the Ohio Valley and Morehead is just 7-10. 

Thing is there's really no motivation here for EKU, who is locked into the No. 4 seed for the OVC Tournament. The Colonels also come into this game in bad form. They have lost their last two and 4 of 6 overall. 

Morehead State should be motivated to get a win here to move up in the standings. The Eagles also know they can compete with EKU, as the only lost by 7 at home to the Colonels. 

Both teams played on Thursday and that's worth noting as Eastern Kentucky is a dreadful 3-11 ATS at home when playing with one or less days of rest. Colonels are also 1-7 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS last 6 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Take Morehead State! 

5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110

I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road. 

The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State. 

They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run. 

UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake! 

3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110

The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance. 

The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits. 

Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro! 

3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Clemson +3½ -105

I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.

I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season. 

Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson! 

3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109

I  got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC. 

With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in. 

During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack. 

The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Texas/Texas Tech under 127 -110

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between rivals Texas Tech and Texas. These two teams played once already this season, earlier this month, and combined for just 119 points. 

The Red Raiders were able to limit the Longhorns to just 57 points on 36% shooting on the road. It figures to be even harder for Texas to score in Lubbock, as the Longhorns only average 60.6 ppg on 40% shooting away from home. 

Also the one big weakness for Tech's defense is fouling and sending their opponents to the free throw line. Texas is one of the worst in the country in getting to the foul line (only had 8 free throw attempts at home against the Red Raiders). Without those freebies it's really hard to score against this Texas Tech defense, which is only giving up 59.3 ppg aon 39% shooting at home. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Longhorns last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 9-0 this season when revenging a loss and 8-0 last two seasons when revening a loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109

I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright. 

Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.

I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Davidson/Dayton under 141 -110

I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's A-10 showdown between Dayton and Davidson. These are the top two offensive teams in the A-10 and I think it has the books inflating the number on the total. We have seen them set the bar too high in Dayton games here of late, as the UNDER is 5-2 in the Flyers last 7 games. 

Both of these teams can play some defense. Both rank in the top half of the conference in defensive efficiency. Given the spotlight of this game with it being arguably the best game on the board Friday and it being the only meeting between these two programs, I think both teams are going to bring it defensively. 

UNDER is 14-5-3 in Davidson's last 22 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 7-2-2 in their last 11 as a dog. UNDER is also 15-5 in Dayton's last 20 at home after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110

I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall. 

They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%. 

Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State! 

4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Temple/Wichita State over 136 -110

The OVER is definitely worth a look here between the Owls and Shockers. These two played to a final score of just 118 earlier this season. The total for that game was 136.5. The fact that the books are setting the same mark in the rematch, tells you they think that first game was a bit of a fluke. 

I completely agree. Wichita State scored just 53 points in an outright loss as a 4-point favorite. The Shockers shot terrible in that game. Largely because they were playing their second straight on the road with just 2 days of rest and the last game went to double-overtime. Not to mention a massive game on deck at home against Houston. 

Temple is giving up 72.6 ppg in league play and 78.0 ppg over their last 5. OVER has cashed in 4 of their last 6 games and is 6-1 in the Owls last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Over is also 9-3 in the Shockers last 12 as a home favorite. Take the OVER 136! 

3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Eastern Kentucky/Murray State under 150 -110

The books have been off of their game with the totals for both of these teams. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 for Eastern Kentucky and 8 of the last 9 for Murray State. I just think because the Racers are such a good team with such a potent offense, the books inflate the over knowing that's where they public will be drawn. 

What they overlook is how good this Murray State team is defensively. The Racers are tops in the Ohio Valley in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top two of both 3-point and 2-point percentage defense. They have allowed 67.1 ppg in conference games this season, but are allowing just 62.8 ppg in their last 5 and a mere 58.1 ppg at home. I just don't see this game getting into the 150's. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110

I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.

He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright. 

Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York! 

3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110

I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns. 

Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.

Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!