4* Major NBA Top Side on Bobcats -2
The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less the past 2 seasons and 12-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since the beginning of last season. The Raptors have struggled on the road at just 2-6 on the season as they are allowing 111.1 ppg away from home. Bet the Bobcats.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nets/Nuggets UNDER 203
The Nets are awful. They are 0-13 on the season and scoring only 84.9 ppg. The Nets have broke the century mark only once this season and have scored 94 or fewer in the rest of their games, including 85 or fewer in 8 games. The Nets could actually score a few more points, but they know that they don't have the bodies to run and gun with most teams so they have taken the air out of the ball to stay as competitive as possible. That's why the Nets are only giving up 95.1 ppg. Plus, I don't expect Denver to try to really run up the score here when it plays on the road tomorrow night. New Jersey is 8-0 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses this season and Denver is 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cornell +14
This is a huge letdown spot for Syracuse tonight after big wins over Cal and UNC. The Orange aren't as talented or as experienced as they were a season ago, making this an even tougher spot for them. Cornell returns all 5 starters from a team that has made the NCAA tourney back-to-back years now and presents problems for the Orange because of how dangerous it is from beyond the arc. Boeheim sticks with his patented zone through thick and thin but Cornell is shooting 46.2% from 3 in two road games this season. The Big Red actually had the Orange down 16 points in the Carrier Dome last season. A better Syracuse team was able to come back to win by 10 points but Cornell still easily covered the 16-point number. In fact, the Big Red are a Perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at Syracuse. I must also mention that this is a very motivated spot for Cornell after being upset by Seton Hall and it is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more. Also, the Big Red are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Big Red are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East while the Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Ivy League. The public is all over the Orange as they are off to a 4-0 SU & ATS start. The books knew what side the money would be going down on here and they have given themselves a cushion with the Big Red. The odds makers expect to make bank with Cornell tonight, but we make sure they make a little less. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Texas -14.5
Iowa's point guard and best player, Jake Kelly transferred following last season and that has left the Hawkeyes in bad shape. They are giving up a ton in size, talent, and athletic ability in this one; so much that I don't think they can keep this one under a 20-point loss. Iowa lives and dies by the three, but Texas is long and athletic and has shown a willingness to defense early one, limiting its opponents to 17.2% from the 3-point line. Texas will treat this one like its first challenge of the season since it is playing a major conference team for the first time and that doesn't look good for Iowa. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Bucks +9
San Antonio's half court style of play is not conducive to many blowouts, especially when it is not defending well, which it has not. The Spurs are allowing 97.5 ppg and that's bad for them. Milwaukee is on fire, having won 7 of 8 as rookie Brandon Jennings continues to take the league by storm. They have also covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 and are an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Spurs. The Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog while the Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Think San Antonio is being overvalued tonight. Take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Vandy +5
Last Friday, I took St. Mary's for an easy late night winner as they took on an inferior New Mexico State team missing some key players. Saint Mary's 2 blowout wins to start the year are the reason why we are seeing it laying so many points here. Today, I'm going to fade the Gaels as they get their first test of the season against a more experienced Vandy team with all 5 starters returning. Right away history is on our side when you consider that plays on any team after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with 3 or more starters returning than their opponent, in the first ten games of the season, are 66-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Commodores are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points while St. Mary's is on a 2-10 ATS run after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots. The Gaels won't get as many good looks tonight and with the 3's not falling with regularity, I look for Vandy to win this one outright.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics -6
Without Jameer Nelson, I don't give the Magic a chance at Boston tonight against a highly motivated Celtics team ready to make a statement after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season. Expect a big game from Kevin Garnett, who was forced to miss last year's playoff series with an injury, and expect Rajon Rondo to dominate the point guard battle. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 meetings and the Magic are just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Boston. Expect the Celtics to send a message tonight.

3* SMASH on Grizzlies/76ers OVER 194
I think the odds makers have undershot this number when you consider how poorly the Grizzlies have played on the defensive end on the road, allowing 117.3 points per game in 6 road contests. Memphis would prefer to get out and run with its young and talented lineup and an uptempo game is sure to bring out the best in the 76ers offensively. In games against uptempo teams Phoenix and New York, the 76ers scored 115 and 141 points respectively. The Over is 7-1 in the 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here.

4* Major NBA Underdog Shocker on Washington Wizards +5
This is a very tough spot for the shorthanded Cavs, which just played an uptempo basketball game last night against the Warriors. Washington has lost 6 straight so it couldn't be hungrier, and it has had 3 days to rest and prepare. No matter how much better Cleveland may be, Washington always seems to play the Cavs tough. In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against the Cavs. In terms of the number, the Cavs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 overall meetings and the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings. With Shaquille O'Neal, Anderson Varejao, and Jamario Moon likely sidelined tonight, and with Antawn Jamison likely to see his first action of the season for the Wiz, I can't see the Cavs escaping with a win. Take the points.

5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under.

4* Major Tuesday Night NCAAB Blowout on Illinois -21
NIU lost by 22 in its first game to Northwestern and it is clearly out of its league against the Illini tonight. In fact, plays on home favorites of 20 or more points off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in November games, are 71-32 ATS since 1997. Also, NIU is just 2-10 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the beginning of last season while Illinois in on a 10-1 ATS run in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, winning in these spots by an average score of 81.8 to 59.7. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Bucks -1
Without Josh Howard, Tim Thomas, and likely Eric Dampier, the Mavs are in a tough spot being shorthanded playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Besides that, the Mavs will be much more interested in their next opponent as they look ahead to a revenge matchup with San Antonio after falling to the Spurs on 11/11. The Bucks have won 4 in a row as teams have not had an answer for rookie sensation Brandon Jennings. Also, the Mavs have found Milwaukee an extremely difficult place to play in recent years, losing 9 of the last 12 games there. In fact, the Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks tonight.

3* SMASH on Indiana State +11
Indiana State came on strong at the end of last season and it returns 4 starters from that team. It also inherits the best player off the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes, Jake Kelly, who transferred to be closer to home concerning personal family matters. He averaged 11.6 ppg for Iowa last season and he scored 16 points in ISU's opener. He is a tall guard, who handles the ball extremely well. He can shoot off the dribble and is a solid playmaker. He's a player I believe will take the MVC by storm. Expect a down season from LSU and some early struggles as it adjusts to a lot of new faces getting a lot of playing time. Consider that LSU is on a 2-11 slide as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, winning in these spot by just 3.3 point on average. Lastly, the Sycamores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. I'll take the points.

3* NCAAB Season Opener on St. Mary's CA -7
New Mexico St is 2-10 ATS in road games in non-conference play over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average of 12.3 ppg. Plus, New Mexico State will be without of a pair of players who averaged double digits for them last season as both Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater sit for academic purposes. That's just too many points missing for the rest of the guys to make up here. Lay the number.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Raptors/Clippers UNDER 206
Can't see this one going over with the amount of players out and the amount of players playing banged up in this one. No Eric Gordon (LA's 2nd leading scorer), Chris Kaman is questionable with a virus and will be lacking energy if he does go. On the Toronto side Turkoglu and Bosh are both banged up among others. Basically, recent results have forced odds makers to set an unrealistic line here. Plays Under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Raptors) after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, playing on Friday nights, are 76-39 since 1996.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +5
The Kings, who only have one less win on the season than Houston, are not getting nearly enough respect tonight, especially when you consider that they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also crucial that Sacramento is well rested here as it is 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103 to 101.8. The Rockets got out of the gate fast but are since coming back down to earth. Sac is improved and I like it outright tonight.

3* SMASH on Nets +15.5
The Magic are being way overvalued against the winless Nets tonight, especially when you consider that the Magic are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Nets played the Magic to a 10-point game in the first meeting and I like them to keep this one within the number tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Revenger on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5
Miami has played to the Under in 6 straight games and the Cavs have come in Under the total in 6 of their last 7. The Under is the play again here. Cleveland just played last night so tired legs will be an issue. Also, it is going to be very tough for the Cavs to get up for this one after such an emotional win last night over a Magic team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Miami and Cleveland both prefer to play half court hoops and both teams are playing exceptionally well on the defensive end, especially the Heat. Miami has held 5 of its 7 opponents to 89 or fewer points, allowing only 88.6 ppg this season. Meanwhile the Cavs are only allowing 90.2 ppg this season. This matchup has long been an Under machine with the Under going 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings overall. The Under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 14-2 in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197
We've seen the Under in all 5 of Milwaukee's games this season and I believe we'll see it again here. Denver is coming off an emotionally and physically draining win in Chicago last night and will find it very difficult to get up for this one, especially with the Lakers on deck. The Bucks are averaging only 90.4 ppg and giving up just 85.2. Denver is 14-4 Under when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Blazers/T-Wolves UNDER 190
System Play: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (Blazer); excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers per game) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 turnovers forced per game) are 35-12 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under.

4* Major on Warriors/Pacers OVER 221.5
Expect the Warriors and the Pacers to shatter the total tonight. The last 3 times these two teams have gotten together, we've seen at least 237 points put up on the scoreboard. The Warriors are getting torched for 121.5 ppg on the road this season and I expect a Pacers team that has not played since the 6th to be able to run and gun with them tonight. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indiana and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall. Plus, it is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199
Both of these teams prefer to run and gun and with Josh Howard back in the lineup for Dallas I expect the Mavs to be getting out in transition a whole lot more. In Howard's first game back, the Mavs exploded for 129 points. Houston has to run and gun to compete without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The Rockets have gone over the number in 5 straight games. The Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-1 in Rockets last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the Over.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205
Plays under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more ppg against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 ppg, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 26-5 the last 5 seasons for an 83.9% win rate. When the road team is off a blowout loss of 20 points or more, the system is 23-4 under since 1996 for an 85.2% win rate. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Heat UNDER 186
Washington and Miami just played back on November 4th and we only saw 182 points scored in that game. I expect another low scoring affair tonight. Together, these teams are 11-2 to the under this season and this matchup has been an unders machine with 7 of 9 meetings going under the last 3 seasons, including all 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat have held 4 of their 6 opponents under 90 points and one has to expect another stingy defensive effort having not played a game since the 6th. That's a lot of time to rest and prepare. Washington has scored 90 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games this season as its offense continues to struggle without Jamison. Mike Miller is out tonight (taking away 3-point shooting) and Gilbert Arenas is not at 100%. The Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 in Wizards last 4 overall, and 4-0 in Wizards last 4 road games. The Under is 7-0 in Heat last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Take the Under.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Clippers +2
The Clippers are ready for this one. They have won 3 in a row and they will be hungry to end a 9-game skid against a struggling Hornets team that just got worked by the Lakers last night. The key here is that New Orleans' defense has stunk this season while the Clippers have scored the ball well. This plays right into our hands as New Orleans is on a 13-32 ATS slide versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game since the beginning of last season. The Hornets are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Take the Clippers.

3* SMASH on Jazz -5.5
Utah is clearly the better team, and while it has had its road woes in recent years, I look for the Jazz to get it done convincingly tonight. NY has lost by 9 or more points in 3 straight games. The Knicks don't match up well with the Jazz and they are lacking star power big time. Utah's effort was called into question last game by head coach Jerry Sloan when it lost to lowly Sacramento. Expect an inspired effort by the Jazz to result in a win and cover tonight. Plays against home teams after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against an opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Utah.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Heat UNDER 201.5
The Nuggets have been posting high point totals but I expect that to end tonight as they find themselves in Miami where the Heat have played to the Under in 4 straight. Miami prefers to play in the half court and I look for it to control the tempo on its home floor tonight. Defensively, both of these teams have been solid with Miami allowing only 94.7 ppg at home and Denver giving up only 93.7 ppg on the road. Miami just plays solid, fundamental defense, not creating a lot of turnovers. And that is crucial here as we don't expect many points off of turnover to send this one over as a result. In fact, MIAMI is 18-4 Under after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average total score in these games is 180.2 points. Plus, the Under is 20-6 in the Nuggets last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Wizards +1.5
Look for Washington to bounce back from back-to-back losses against a short-handed Pacers squad tonight. The Pacers will be without Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster, and leading rebounder Troy Murphy and reserve guard Travis Diener is expected to miss as well. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Look for Agent 0, Gilbert Arenas, to will the Wiz to victory tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs +1
The Jazz are off to a slow 1-3 start. While that may be a surprise to some, consider that two key players are out, Kyle Korver and Matt Harpring. Few players in the entire league shoot the 3 like Korver and they are missing his ability to knock down big shots right now. Harpring is a key guy in Utah's second group, especially on the defensive end. The big key here is that San Antonio is healthy with even more depth than it has had in the past with the main addition of Richard Jefferson. The Spurs have also not played since Halloween so Pop will have them very prepared and they will be very fresh for this one. The Spurs have had Utah's number, winning four straight and 29 of the 35 against. San Antonio has also covered the number in all 4 of those consecutive wins. Lastly, the Jazz are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. I'll grab the Spurs tonight.

3* Bulls/Cavs NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 191.5
The Bulls have played to the Under in 2 straight and the Cavs have played to the Under in 4 straight. The fact that both of these teams have been Unders clubs early on correlates to Chicago being without key scorer Ben Gordan and the Cavs adjusting to a slower pace with Shaq. This line opened at 186.5 and has been bet up to where we see it now. This movement has created value on the Under. This is a similar scenario to what happened last night in the Suns/Magic game. The total opened at 224 and was been bet down all the way to 217.5 and we cashed in on the Over as the teams combined for 222 points. Since being embarrassed at Toronto, Cleveland

3* SMASH on Lakers -1.5
I played against the Lakers for a win last night but I'll back them this evening. Yes, the Lakers are yet cover the spread this season, but they'll be ready to go here. They were nearly caught looking ahead to this game last night. They got the win and now they will be ready for the game they've been anticipating. Without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and with Ron Artest now on the Lakers, I just don't think Houston has the fire power to get the job done against an experienced Lakers team. The Lakers are an impressive 15-4 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.8 to 98.1. Plus, the Lakers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Houston. Lay the points.

4* Major on Celtics/T-Wolves UNDER 186
With as good as Boston is defensively and with as anemic as Minnesota has been offensively, I can't see this one making its way over the total. Boston is on a 16-4 UNDER run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average point total coming in at 182.7. 3 of 4 have gone UNDER in this matchup the last 2 seasons, including both at Minnesota. With Boston having just played last night, I expect Doc to play his key guys as conservatively as he can and still win as the Celtics have a track meet with Phoenix up next. Take the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here.

3* SMASH on Mavs -5.5
I'll take the well-rested Mavs at home against a Jazz team that just played last night. Utah is 5-16 ATS when playing on back-to-back over the last 2 seasons while the Mavericks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The Jazz are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog and an awful 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the home team is on a 21-5-1 ATS run in the last 27 meetings. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Bulls -9
I can't see the Bucks keeping this one within the number on the road tonight against a hungry Bulls team without go-to guy Michael Redd, who is expected to be out at least two weeks with a strained left knee tendon. Chicago has dropped 2 straight on the road since opening with a home win over San Antonio and I expect the Bulls to get back in the win column in a big way tonight. The last 2 times the Bucks have visited the Windy City, the Bulls have posted wins of 13 and 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Pau Gasol still isn't back for the Lakers and they still haven't covered a spread this season. LA as public a team as there is in the NBA and the books are looking to take advantage of that in the early going. Don't expect the Lakers to be hitting on all cylinders tonight as they hit the road for the first time this season. Plus, one has to think LA will be more interested in tomorrow night's game against a Rockets team that gave them so much trouble in last year's playoffs. The Thunder fell flat against Portland after starting the season 2-0 and I expect much better from them tonight, especially with the champs in town as everyone wants to give the champs their best shot. The Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Blowout on Nets/Bobcats OVER 175
Plays over on any team (Nets) off a road loss, against an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, are 80-38 the last 5 seasons. Basically, this system tells us that odds makers overreact with the line in these situations and I believe that's exactly what they have done here. New Jersey is also 13-3 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, with the average combined total score coming in at 206.5 in these games. Take the over.

3* Sunday Night NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawks +7
We faded the Lakers for a big win with our last NBA bailout and we'll do it again here. The Lakers are struggling offensively in the early going without Pau Gasol while the Hawks are off to a 2-0 start and ready to add their name to the contender map by knocking off the defending champs. The Lakers are a huge public play in a bounce back spot, just as the books knew they would be, and that is why odds makers have inflated this line, giving themselves a cushion. The Lakers are on a 4-16 ATS slide off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more and Atlanta is 11-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins since the beginning of last season. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Mavs +9
The public is on the defending NBA champion Lakers tonight after watching Dallas lay an egg in its opener. The Lakers won their first game by 7 points over the Clippers but they did not cover the 11.5-point spread. The books love to take advantage of the public early in the season by overvaluing teams that the public perceives to be good. But we must keep in mind that Dallas has played LA as tough as anyone at Staples Center over the last few seasons, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5, never losing by more than 7 points. In all, the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double digit loss at home. Take the points.

3* Friday Night Blowout on Jazz -8.5
Utah has been the Bermuda Triangle for a lot of teams (they just get lost there) so it comes as no surprise that the Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Utah. Utah is perennially one of the best home teams in basketball and after opening the season with a road loss, I expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight. The Clippers are off back-to-back covers but that streak ends here as they are just 2-25 in Utah since 1996, losing by an average of 13 points in those games. Utah is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Clippers the last 4 seasons, winning by an average of 20 points. Lay the points.

4* Major Thursday NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs -2.5
I'll take the hands down better team laying a small number against a young Bulls team tonight. The Spurs dominated the Chris Paul and the Hornets last night without the starters logging many minutes so I don't see tired legs being an issue for San Antonio here. I know Tony Parker took a hard fall last night but it appears that he is going to be okay. So all in all the Spurs are healthy and we saw what a healthy Spurs team is capable of last night. Now, they add more depth and talent with notable players Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. These additions make the Spurs a title contender while I fear the Bulls could take a step back without go-to guy Ben Gordon. Where would they have been in the playoffs without him last season? Plus, star point guard Derrick Rose has an ankle injury that the Bulls are monitoring closely. The injury is expected to cut his playing time way down. Over the last 2 seasons, the Spurs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against the Bulls, winning all 4 games by at least 5 points with 3 of the wins coming by 10 points or more. Also, the Spurs are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. I'll lay the points.

3* SMASH on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207
Coach Mike D'Antoni quickly figured out that it's tough to win in the East without playing solid defense and that's why he has placed an emphasis on it this season. The result, only 193.5 total points per game in New York's preseason contests. Expect to see a better defensive effort from the Knicks tonight, one that this line does not reflect. Also, the under is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 overall, 8-2 in the Knicks last 10 road games, and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 190
I feel this line is representative of last year's Pistons and not the current team under new head coach John Kuester, who has installed a more uptempo philosophy. Veteran half-court, spot-up shooters like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are gone and young guys capable of playing in transition like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have arrived. With that said, losing the aforementioned vets does hurt the defense and that's why this is an attractive play tonight. Take the Over.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
Big win for the Celtics last night has the public all over them, but after big wins often come letdowns and that's precisely what I think you'll see from Boston here. The Bobcats have played the Celtics tough as nails and the result has been lucrative. In fact, the Cats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this matchup and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Plus, the Bobcats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Celtics are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Doc Rivers played his starters longer than he wanted to last night, especially KG. Don't expect Boston to be up for the Bobcats the way they were for Lebron James and Shaq and expect Doc to give his vets a little more rest tonight, playing back-to-back early in the season as it is a long season. Take the points.

3* NBA Season Opening SMASH (TNT) on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 185
Expect a low-scoring defensive battle in Cleveland tonight as a healthy Celtics team once again figures to be among the finest defensive units in the league. Cleveland was an exceptional defensive team at home last season, allowing only 88.2 ppg so the Cavs know how to play defense as well. On top of the fact that we have two solid defensive teams here. The Cavs offense figures to struggle in the early going as they adjust to life with Shaquille O'Neal. Also, his presence in the lineup calls for a slower paced game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Cleveland. The under is also 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Cavs are 33-13 under as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points under coach Brown. Let's start off the season with a nice unders winner.

5* NBA Finals Game 5 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic -3
Normally, the series would be heading back to LA for Game 5, but the unique 2-3-2 format of the finals gives the Magic a home game to fight for its playoff life and that is huge. Orlando is a very resilient team and it is not going to lay down in front of its home fans here, especially since this is the last home game of the season. Plus, teams playing with nothing to lose are very dangerous. The Lakers are feeling a little fat and happy right about now, just like they were following their narrow Game 2 victory, and while they may say they want to end it tonight, they aren't going to lose any sleep over a loss as they feel they can win it in front of their home fans in Game 6. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 NBA Finals games. Orlando is 33-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.3 to 94.1. Orlando is also 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic tonight.

5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points.

5* 2009 NBA Finals Game of the Year on LA Lakers +4
I like the Lakers to deliver the knockout blow with an outright win tonight so I'll definitely take them getting 4 insurance points. They escaped with a win in Game 2 while not playing their best and that does tons for their confidence while it doesn't do anything for Orlando's. The Lakers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. With the books knowing the public would shift to the Magic tonight, they have given the Lakers plenty of breathing room here with these points. Expect the Lakers to come out on top in a close one.

5* 2009 NBA Finals Vegas Line Mistake on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers have only raised this line a half point from what we saw in Game 1 when the Lakers crushed the Magic by 25 points and I expect them to pay for their mistake. While I don't expect the Magic to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1, I still have the Lakers winning by double digits. The Magic live and die from the three-point line and they were not that bad from three in Game 1 (8 of 23) and were still dominated. Even if they make over their season average of 10, which is going to be difficult with as well as the Lakers are defending dating back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, they still have a lot of points to make up. Kobe Bryant is as focused and as hungry as I've seen him. He knows that putting the young and inexperienced Magic in a 0-2 hole all but closes the door on this series. Bet the Lakers!

5* 2009 NBA Finals Series Opener on Lakers -6
This is where experience plays a big role. The Lakers played in the Finals a season ago and came up short. They know what to expect on the big stage and this time around they have the luxury of playing Game 1 at home. The fact that they lost in the Finals last year is also key as you won't see a team that is fat and happy. The Magic haven't been here before and I'm confident you will see their nerves in Game 1 tonight. LA also has a couple individuals that really want this title and they know how important a Game 1 win is in achieving it. Phil Jackson has a chance to earn his 10th NBA title and Kobe Bryant wants his first without Shaq and his 4th overall. The Lakers match up much better with the Magic than the Cavs did and they have a lot more weapons. Take advantage of a soft line in Game 1.

5* Game 6 BEST BET (TNT) on Magic -2
The Magic have been the better team in this series and there's no way they are going to let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. The Cavaliers are 2-14 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 0-5 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando. Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season while Orlando is 12-3 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 107.9 to 88.2 in these spots. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.2 to 99.6. I'll back the Magic at home to close out the series tonight.

4* Major ESPN PRIME TIME SMASH on Lakers +5.5
I'll back the best road team in the NBA tonight catching 5.5 points as it tries to deliver the knockout punch to Denver. LA's role players are starting to step up and I expect another big game from Lamar Odom as his performance last game figures to really boost his confidence. The Lakers are always dangerous when catching points as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog. Plus, the Lakers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings with the Nuggets. The Lakers want to end this series tonight so they can catch a little extra rest before the Finals. Take the points.

5* Game 5 BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs -7
The Cavaliers will play their best game of the series tonight on their home floor where they are 44-3 this season. Cleveland will be very dangerous tonight because it will be fighting to stay alive in the postseason and also because it will be playing with nothing to lose. Now the pressure is on Orlando to close this thing out. Bottom line, Cleveland wins Game 4 on the road rather easily if the Magic don't go off for 17 three pointers and they won't make near that many on the road tonight. The Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, 14-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, and 17-6 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The public is all over the Magic tonight so the books are looking to cash in big with a Cleveland cover. We'll go against the grain for another big winner.

5* NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on LA Lakers -5.5
After a 19-point Game 4 loss, you can expect the Lakers to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. LA is 25-3 SU in its last 28 home games with the Nuggets and the Nuggets are only 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games in Los Angeles. Plus, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game, losing by an average score of 102.8 to 115.1 in these spots. And lastly, the Lakers are 16-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. I'll lay the number here.

5* NBA Eastern Conf Finals GOTY on Cavs pk
This is a do-or-die game for the Cavs when you consider the bleak history of coming back in a series after falling Behind 1-3, and I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion. The Cavaliers are 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. But here's the clincher: Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.0 to 88.1 in these games. I'll back the league MVP and the Cavs in this must-win spot.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets -4.5
I'll back the Nuggets at home in what is basically a do-or-die game. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Denver is 12-1 ATS in these playoffs and after its first home loss of the postseason, the public is backing the Lakers. The books are looking to make money with a Nuggets win and cover and that's where I'll side here.

5* Game 3 Monster BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs +1.5
LeBron's game winner in Game 2 saved the Cavs. Now I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling behind in this series again. The Cavs have held huge leads in both Games 1 and 2 and have let the Magic claw their way back. I expect the Cavs to show a much greater killer instinct from here on out. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. The Magic have struggled at home in the small chalk at 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. With the momentum gained in Game 2, I expect the Cavs to steal its home court back tonight.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (ABC) on Lakers +4
First off, the Lakers are one of the finest road teams in the NBA at 31-15 this season. Secondly, each time LA has lost in these playoffs, it has responded with a convincing double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Thirdly, anytime you can get LA catching points, it is worth strong consideration, especially in a bounce back spot. The Lakers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Plus, LA is 17-6 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. There's no question the books have overvalued the Nuggets here as the public is jumping on their bandwagon. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Lakers are 41-14 SU against Denver since 1996 and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Pound LA tonight as they win this one outright!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time SMASH on Magic +9
You can expect a passionate effort from Cleveland tonight, but the fact of the matter is that the Cavs do not match up well with Orlando's front line. Expect a dog fight which favors grabbing the points. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The Magic are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. I think Orlando learns from the way it fell flat in Game 2 of its previous series. Take the points!

4* Major ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets +5.5
The Nuggets led most of the way in Game 1, despite receiving nothing from their bench and shooting poorly from the foul line. They did not get the win, but they covered from start to finish, never trailing by more than 4 points. The Nuggets are not going to go away after a defeat. In fact, they'll come back even stronger tonight to try to steal away home court before the series shifts to Denver. The Nuggets have not lost by more than 2 points in the postseason and according to closing lines, they are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Expect Denver to play with a greater sense of urgency in Game 2, being down a game in this series, and don't be surprised if they come away with an outright win.

5* Game 1 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic +9
The Cavs have won each of their 8 playoff games by 10 or more points so odds makers are begging for action on Cleveland with this line, but we won't bite. The Magic match up very well with the Cavs as Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all pose matchup problems. This is why Orlando has had Cleveland's number. The Magic won the season series 2-1 and have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11 overall. And when they haven't won, they have been right there to cover. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning pct. above .600. The Magic are coming off a very intense series while the Cavs have had a cake walk to this point. I expect the Magic to be ready to go here as it takes Cleveland some time to match intensity and to lose its rust after a long layoff. Bet the Magic.

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on LA Lakers -6.5

This line is soft. The Lakers are not going to be caught sleeping tonight after what happened in Game 1 of their last series, and they are not going to be showing any rust as they haven't had a long layoff coming into this series. Plan on LA making a statement tonight. Denver has looked great in these playoffs, but that's because it has played the majority of its games at home. Outside of a 58-point win at New Orleans, the Nuggets have looked like an ordinary team away from home in the playoffs. They are 2-2 on the road in the postseason and 6-11 in their last 17 road games overall. LA has had Denver's number. Over the last 3 seasons, LA is 11-4 SU and ATS in all meetings. The Lakers are 24-2 SU and 18-6 ATS at home against Denver since 1996 and 7-1 SU and ATS at home against the Nuggets the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. LA is winning its games by an average of 10.6 points at home and has won each of its home games against Denver by 14 points this season. Denver is only 5-17 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 107.1. Cash in with the Lakers!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Magic/Celtics OVER 186
Following 3 straight unders, which included a very low scoring Game 6, odds makers have lowered this line way too much, and we'll take full advantage. Boston is 17-6 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, 10-2 OVER in home games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent this season, and 13-4 OVER when playing with 2 days rest this season. All 3 of these situations have seen Boston and its opponent combine for over 200 points on average. On the other side, Orlando is 13-3 OVER after a combined score of 175 points or less this season and 21-8 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. I'll bet the Over tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Game 7 BEST BET on Lakers -12.5
After a double digit loss in Houston in Game 4, the Lakers returned home and gave the Rockets a 40-point beat down and I anticipate a similar course of events today. I don't expect this one to be that bad, but I do expect the Lakers to dominate from start to finish. Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss period. Also, Houston is 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in LA. Houston did steal Game 1 in LA, but the Lakers have wins of 29, 12, 13, and 40 points at home against Houston this season. That's a 23.5-point average margin of victory. I'll back the Lakers at home in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA Playoffs Blowout of the Year on Magic -6.5
I'll back the Magic at home in this do-or-die Game 6. Orlando came out with great intensity in Game 5, but ultimately couldn't get the job done down the stretch. I'm expecting even more intensity tonight with its playoff life on the line and playing in front of its home crowd. Dwight Howard has called out his coach and now I expect him to back up his words with his play tonight. I also feel great about the fact that the public is putting its money on Boston here and odds makers have moved the line the other way. This is a clear sign that the Magic are the team the books feel will cover this number. Orlando is 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.6 to 89.3 in these games. The Magic are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 49-21-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a SU loss. Expect the Magic to bounce back big tonight!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets -8.5
I know the Mavs showed a lot of heart to win Game 4 at home to stay alive, but the Nuggets blew a double digit lead in that game. They won both Games 1 and 2 at home by 14 and 12 points respectively and I expect the Nuggets to take care of business by double digits to close this series out in front of its home fans tonight. Expect another huge game from Melo as the only Mavs player with half a shot at guarding him, Josh Howard, is hobbled with two bad wheels. Plus, the awesome Denver bench likely gets The Bird Man back tonight. The Nuggets feel like they really squandered an opportunity to get the job done in Game 4 and they won't squander another one tonight. Here's the clincher: Denver is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning these games by an average of 15.1 points. Take the Nuggets!

5* Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2
With Big Baby's 21-foot buzzer beater the Boston Celtics regained home court and take a huge amount of momentum back home with them for tonight's matchup. I can't see the Celtics giving their home court away tonight as they now know they are in position to win this series. The Boston crowd will be electric and I can't see Ray Allen's struggles continuing any further. Orlando is 8-26 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996 while Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. Plus, the Magic are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in the Garden. I'll bet Boston at home laying a small number tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Do-or-Die GOTY (TNT) on Mavs -1.5
A blown call by the officials has put the Mavs in an 0-3 hole, but I don't see the Mavs pouting about it tonight in front of their home crowd. Instead, they will have way more motivation to win than most teams facing an 0-3 deficit. I don't expect Denver to be going for the jugular tonight either after such an emotionally and physically draining Game 3, especially when they can close this thing out back at home in Game 5. So expect a letdown from the Nugs here. Dallas has won 20 of the last 26 at home in this matchup and we've got three more big time systems backing the Mavs here: Plays On - Favorites (DALLAS) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-9 ATS since 1996, Plays On - Home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 71-33 ATS since 1996, and Plays On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-15 ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are the better team and will win this series, but a proud Dallas team survives at home tonight.

3* Sunday NBA Playoffs TOP SIDE on Lakers -5.5
With Yao Ming out, the Rockets are without their No. 1 offensive option and their best rebounder. This forces the Rockets to be a more perimeter oriented team and that will not play to their favor here. Expect LA to smell blood this afternoon so they can have the opportunity to close out this series at home in Game 5. Houston is just 2-14 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Houston. Lay the number.

5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today.

5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BOMB on Mavs -4
While Denver has played exceptionally well in these playoffs, it has done the majority of its damage at home. The Mavericks are quite the home squad as well, going 34-9 this season. Dallas has won 20 of its last 25 home games against the Nuggets. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have won 8 in a row, 17 of their last 18, and 22 of their last 24 at home. They are an extraordinary home team and I expect them to leave it all out on the floor knowing that 0-3 is as good as done. What cannot be overshadowed when looking at the Nuggets is that they are just 1-3 their L4 and 5-10 their L15 road games. The Nuggets are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 29-8 ATS since 1996 and plays on home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), and 71-32 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Mavs.

5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with LA winning these game by an average score of 111.9 to 96.4. It's hard to get quality shots without good ball movement stemming from penetration, and the Rockets don't get good penetration nearly enough. Houston is only 2-13 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Magic -4
No Rafer Alston for the Magic tonight, but I expect them to get the job done anyway. They were able to win in Philly without Dwight Howard, who is a much bigger piece of the puzzle, in their first round series so they shouldn't have a problem at home without Alston. After getting worked in Game 2, you can expect Orlando to play with a much bigger sense of urgency tonight. Orlando has won 20 of its last 26 at home against Boston and 5 of its last 6 at home against Boston the last 3 seasons. It's important to note that the Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Boston defense has not been nearly as good in these playoffs without Garnett, especially on the road. Lay the points.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight!

5* Game 2 BEST BET (TNT) on Lakers -9.5
The Lakers cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series so I expect a very motivated effort tonight on their home floor. Expect the Lakers to do a better job of getting out in transition where they can exploit Yao Ming's foot speed and they take advantage of their superior athletes. Plays on all home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons so right away we see the profitability of this bounce back situation. Plus, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 12.9 points on average. The Rockets played a perfect Game 1, but I expect Coach Jackson and the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments to send a message to the Rockets tonight. On top of that, the Lakers here the experts talking about the Nuggets being the team to beat in the West right now, and I expect that will light a fire under their butts as well. I'll lay the number.

3* Game 2 SMASH on Nuggets -6.5
Denver is playing the best ball in the Western Conference right now and I don't see the Mavs slowing them down tonight. The only question about this Denver team in the past was its defense and the Nuggets are yet to allow an opponent over 95 points in the postseason. Denver is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 97.3. The Nuggets have now won 6 straight over Dallas and it is apparent that the Mavs don't match up very well against them. The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Southwest. Bet Denver.

5* Game 1 BEST BET on Cavs -11.5
Thanks to the Lakers not showing up last night, the Cavs will be ready here in Game 1 as they are not about to let the Hawks take them by storm. Atlanta has struggled on the road all season while the Cavs are 41-2 at home with a 14.4 point margin of victory. We saw Atlanta lose 3 games by double digit margins in its first round series against a Heat team that is far less explosive on offense and far inferior on defense than the Cavs. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 109.0 to 85.7, 7-0 ATS after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.4 to 87.1, and 16-1 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 86.7 in these spots. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs Second Rd GOTY (TNT) on Lakers -8
Expect the Lakers to send a message to Houston in Game 1. LA is 4-0 against Houston this season, winning in its 2 home games by 29 and 12 points respectively. The Lakers beat the Jazz by double digits in 4 of the five games in their first round series, including all 3 games at home, and the Jazz is a team which posed more problems for LA because of its athleticism. The Blazers had no answer for Yao Ming in round one, but the Lakers have two mobile scoring threats on the block in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol that will give the big man trouble on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Here's the clincher: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 73-36 ATS since 1996. Pound the Lakers.

5* Mavs/Nugs Game 1 BEST BET on Nuggets -5.5
I'll back the Nuggets in Game 1 as Dallas won't look quite as good as it did in round 1 when it faces a team with a whole lot more offensive weapons. Dallas has struggled on the road all season long and I'm not reading too much into it's first round road wins against a battered Spurs team. The Nuggets are 36-8 at home this season and 4-1 SU and ATS at home versus the Nuggets over the last 3 seasons. In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Nuggets are an incredible 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging 4 or more losses vs. an opponent in last 2 years, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 22-4 ATS since 1996. All Nuggets in Game 1.

3* Heat/Hawks NBA Playoffs Early Annihilator on Hawks -5
After getting hit in the mouth in Game 6, I expect the Hawks to bounce back strong at home today to take this series and cover the number in the process. I expect the Hawks to have no trouble controlling the tempo on its home floor and this is a young team which really benefits from the energy of its home crowd. Atlanta is 13-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season and 15-5 ATS revenging a loss where it scored less than 85 points over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Lay the points!

4* Major 42-0 ATS Game 7 MONSTER BEST BET (TNT) on Bulls +6.5
With as tight as this series has been, I have to take the points in Game 7. 5 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by 3 points or less, and I give the edge to the younger Bulls in this one as they will be the fresher team on the floor after playing that Triple OT thriller on Thursday night. For Ray Allen to go off like he did in Game 6 and for the Celtics to still lose that game says something about this Bulls team. All the pressure is on Boston tonight playing at home, who wasn't supposed to have this much trouble in round one. Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Lastly, the Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the points!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Heat -5
After getting hit in the mouth in back-to-back games with double digit losses, expect the Heat to come storming back at home in Game 6. Miami is 23-4 in its last 27 home games against the Hawks so the Heat will not be lacking any confidence tonight. Here's the clincher though: Miami is 8-1 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season, winning by an average score of 101.0 to 92.3 in these spots. The Heat are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are only 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Miami. Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the floor tonight and he will lead the Heat to a Game 6 win and cover.

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 179.5
The public is all over the over here, but it is going to get them burnt. The last 3 games in this series have all gone under with point totals of 169, 177, and 165. Both teams play slow-down defensive minded basketball and the defensive intensity will be at it's highest tonight with Portland fighting to stay alive and Houston looking to close out the Blazers. Portland is 9-1 UNDER in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons and Houston is 10-1 UNDER in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Plays Under on all teams where the total is 179.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 53-21 since 1996.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 196
Without overtime, we would have seen 4 of 5 games in this series play to the under. The odds makers are facing us with the smallest total of this series and that means they are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. As this series has gone one, we have seen far less fast breaking and far more defense being played. With Chicago's playoff life on the line, and with Boston looking to close this thing out, I expect a defensive struggle resulting in the under. Boston is 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 15-2 UNDER in road games off a home win this season, and 22-6 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Chicago is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996. Lastly, plays UNDER on All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 75-30 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Hornets +11
Odds makers and the betting public have overreacted to Denver's 58-point win in Game 4. Denver was just a 6.5-point home favorite in the first two games of this series and we now see the number set 4.5 points higher. Denver head coach George Karl said that his team played a perfect game last time out and they had the motivation to do so following a Game 3 loss. New Orleans has extreme motivation to bounce back tonight after being brutally embarrassed and to stay alive in the postseason. An interesting thing to note is that New Orleans' 58-point loss tied the 1957 St. Louis Hawks for the worst loss in NBA Playoff history. The thing to consider is that the Hawks bounced back and won the next game. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 80 points or less against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more are 40-13 ATS since 1996. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
We have seen 3 of 4 games go over in this series, but 2 of those games made it over by just 1 point. It's going to take an exceptional defensive effort for the Spurs to stay alive tonight, and I have no doubt that you'll see it from this well rested team. San Antonio is 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons - average score totaling 180.8 points. Popovich is 21-9 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of San Antonio - average score totaling 182.4 points in these games. And plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 71-28 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. With Dallas fighting to put the Spurs away and the Spurs fighting to stay alive, I expect a very high intensity defensive battle. Bet the Under.

4* Major 14-0 ATS NBA Playoffs Perfect Play on Nuggets +2.5
Denver is the much better team in this series. It has more offensive weapons and a much deeper bench. The Nuggets did not play well at all in Game 3 and they only lost by 2 points. Look for Denver to bounce back tonight to steal one on the road. Denver is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a Win Pct. of 51% to 60% in 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 110.0 to 96.5. New Orleans is 4-13 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing by an average score of 96.1 to 101.2 in these spots. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Bet the Nuggets.

5* NBA Playoffs Underdog of the Year on Hawks +5
After cruising to a 90-64 victory in Game 1, the Hawks have suffered back-to-back double digit defeats. I believe strongly that the Hawks are the better team in this series and they will bounce back strong tonight to regain home court. Atlanta is 12-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Miami is 3-13 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. There's no way Miami can continue to shoot at such a high percentage from beyond the arc. When the shots don't fall as easily tonight, Atlanta's athleticism will take over this game. Bet the Hawks!

4* Major on Bulls -3
After being brutally embarrassed at home in Game 3, expect the Bulls to have their revenge and even this series today. The Celtics are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Also, Chicago is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and lastly, plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bulls!

5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Spurs +4.5
You can count on the Spurs bouncing back strong in Game 4 after their horrible Game 3 performance. San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning these games by an average score of 97.7 to 93.8. Plays on any team (SAN ANTONIO) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half after a combined score of 160 points or less are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs starters were shut down by Popovich in the third quarter of last game so they'll be fresh and hungry tonight. Plus, this is a huge rivalry and San Antonio won't take too kindly to that kind of beatdown. Got to grab the Spurs and the points here.

4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 198
The Hornets would like to run and gun a little more but they know they can't do so and be competitive with the Nuggets. I expect them to take the air out of the ball at home today and really up their level of play on defense after getting hit in the mouth in the first two games of the series. New Orleans is a much better home team, especially on defense where it holds its opponents to only 91.7 ppg. Denver is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. New Orleans is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season and 18-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the average total score being 182.8 in this spot. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
After watching each of the first two games in this series go over, I love the Under tonight. The Rockets are only allowing 91 ppg at home this season and they have held each of their last 3 home opponents to 88, 83, and 66 points respectively. The Rockets have been able to control the tempo at home in this matchup and the result has played to the under in 15 of the last 24 home meetings against the Blazers. First off, Houston is 14-4 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season and 12-2 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Secondly, Portland is 17-5 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll plays on the Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 29-9 the last 5 seasons. This one has Under written all over it.

3* NBA Playoffs REVENGER on Orlando Magic -3.5
After losing home court, the Magic know they need to steal a game back to win this series. They have been one of the strongest road teams in the NBA over the last two seasons and I like them to get the job done tonight. Orlando is 27-14 ATS in road games this season and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup. One of the reasons the Magic are so good on the road is because of how well they shoot the 3 pointer. This advantage becomes striking when they face a team that does not shoot the 3 well. In fact, Orlando is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 110.8 to 97.5. Philly is only 9-22 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 89.5 to 98.2. The Magic don't want to trail in this series and I don't see them blowing any more big leads. Bet the Magic.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GOTY on Lakers -1.5
I know the Jazz came back and won both of their home games after falling behind 0-2 in last year's playoff series with the Lakers, but this Lakers team, with Andrew Bynum, is better and this Jazz team is not playing as well as it did a season ago. The Lakers don't want to mess around and give the Jazz any inkling of hope or confidence. They want to put them in an 0-3 hole tonight so that this one is all but over. Utah has lost 9 of its last 11 games while the Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 so it's easy to see which team is playing better ball right now. The Lakers are the best road team in the NBA and Utah is not playing good enough defense right now to beat them. In fact, LA is 15-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.8 to 102.1. Utah is 4-12 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing these games by 4 points on average. Lastly, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games are 30-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Utah hangs around for a while, but in the end it's a win and cover for the Lakers.