|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-19-12||Utah Jazz v. Indiana Pacers -3.5||84-104||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
The Jazz won last night in Brooklyn, but I won't hesitate to go against them here as they haven't won consecutive road games all season. They are just 5-10 away from home on the year. It is also worth noting that Utah is 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Tyrone Corbin in road games following a road win. It has lost by an average score of 102.1 to 93.4 in these contests.
The home team has clearly had the advantage in this series. It has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and each of these 8 wins have come by 5 points or more. The Pacers are a reliable 7-3 at home on the season.
Indiana went down last night in Milwaukee, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. Take the Pacers.
|12-18-12||Cal Santa Barbara v. California -12.5||59-68||Loss||-106||13 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Cal -12.5
Cal has lost three in a row since starting the season 6-0, and it will be hungry to take its frustrations out on a team it defeated by 20 points last season because of it.
Each of Cal's three defeats have come against quality opponents. UCSB doesn't have a quality win and has lost to the likes of LSU, Illinois State, Boise State and Wyoming by 14 points or more.
Cal lost its most recent game to a very good Creighton team, but the fact the Golden Bears got after the boards and took care of the basketball bodes very well for us tonight.
Consider that Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 boards or more. It has won these six by an average score of 82.3 to 61.0.
Cal is also 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after a game it committed 8 or less turnovers. It has these seven by an average score of 82.3 to 63.7. Lay the number with the Golden Bears in this highly motivated spot.
|12-18-12||Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Miami Heat||92-103||Loss||-108||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
The T-Wolves lost in Orlando yesterday but had won four in a row and six of seven prior to the defeat.
Miami won its most recent game by 30 against the Wizards but is just 3-3 over its last six contests.
Rick Adelman has really changed the complexion of things in Minnesota as the Timberwolves have been a lot more competitive under his watch. Consider that they are 15-3 ATS under Adelman when up against good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points or more per game. The Wolves have lost to these teams by just .1 points on average.
Minnesota is also 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under Adelman and has lost by an average of just .3 points in these games. Take the T-Wolves.
|12-18-12||Ball State v. Purdue -15.5||Top||56-66||Loss||-107||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Purdue -15.5
Off back-to-back losses away from home, expect Purdue to roll when it steps back on its home floor tonight.
Home court has treated the Boilermakers well in recent seasons as they are on a 21-10 ATS run in lined home games dating back to the 2010 season. They are an awesome 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points during this span and have won by an average score of 74.8 to 49.2 in these spots.
It is also significant that Purdue suffered a double-digit loss to Notre Dame its last time out. That's because the Boilermakers have responded extremely well following such embarrassing defeats. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Lay the points as Purdue rolls in this motivated spot.
|12-17-12||IUPU Ft Wayne +23.5 v. Notre Dame||62-74||Win||100||19 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAABB Sure Fire on IUPU Ft Wayne +23.5
This is a lot of points for Notre Dame to be giving up tonight so I'll gladly take the big number. The Irish are coming off a big win against in-state rival Purdue on Saturday so you can imagine it might be tough for them to get up for this quick turnaround against a team they didn't exactly circle on the schedule in the preseason.
The big number also puts into play a pretty solid system that says to FADE favorites of 20+ points off seven or more straight wins. These teams are just 33-65 ATS the past five seasons.
Mike Brey hasn't exactly blown inferior opponents out either. Since becoming coach of the Irish Brey is just 26-41 ATS as a home favorite of 10+ points.
You aren't going to see any threat of an upset tonight, but I can't see Notre Dame covering this large number on Monday.
|12-17-12||Detroit +19.5 v. Syracuse||68-72||Win||100||18 h 28 m||Show|
3* on SMASH on Detroit +19.5
I got hosed on Saturday going against Syracuse but I'm giving it another shot tonight. Canisius played them closer than the 24 point final indicated as the Orange led by only a few points at halftime. They had to shoot 55% from the floor to earn that cover and I can't see them repeating that kind of shooting performance tonight.
Detroit is a solid team that went through a tough schedule early in the year playing the likes of St. John's, Miami, and Pitt. While they struggled it helped prepare them for the rest of their games as Detroit has now won four straight games and is on a little bit of a roll of their own.
The big number here and Syracuse's perfect record sets us up for a nice little system that says to fade home favorites of 10+ points off 9 or more straight wins. These teams are just 76-133 ATS the last five years.
Detroit is a better team than they are being given credit for and Syracuse is laying a few extra points than they should be here. Go with the underdog.
|12-16-12||Northern Illinois +19 v. DePaul||64-69||Win||100||16 h 49 m||Show|
4* Sunday BEST BET on Northern Illinois +19
This is a lot of points to be laying for DePaul here today. Northern Illinois is a team that hasn't gotten enough respect from odds makers lately, winning three straight ATS by keeping the game close to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Dayton.
DePaul is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers in this one after posting some big upset wins over Auburn and Arizona State. DePaul has won the past two years against Northern Illinois by scores of 75-52 and 86-84, both times as 9.5 point favorites.
What happens is the public sees the recent results and how these two teams have matched up the past two years and they want to jump all over DePaul. That has caused a couple points of inflation and the value to be with Northern Illinois on Sunday.
|12-16-12||Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 198.5||96-103||Loss||-110||12 h 1 m||Show|
3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on the Rockets/Raptors UNDER 198.5
This line is a little inflated due to the high number of points Houston games have been played towards this year, but the last two times out Houston gave up 93 & 89 points while scoring 101 or less.
Toronto on the other hand has gone UNDER in four straight games by playing decent defense and not putting points on the board offensively. They have scored 100 or fewer in six straight games while have allowed 94 or less in their last three.
I think the players in the NBA struggle a little more with the early start times. When you are used to playing late at night each game and have to get started at Noon, it's going to take a little while to shake off the cobwebs. Both these teams struggle to do that on Sunday and it leads to a low scoring game for us.
|12-15-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls -3.5||Top||82-83||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
5* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Bulls -3.5
Brooklyn played a tough game last night against the Pistons, playing a few extra frames and now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team with two days rest. Chicago is playing good basketball right now winning four of five and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn on the other hand has been struggling with five losses in their last seven games. The Nets should be a tired team as they not only come off double overtime, but they are also playing their fourth game in five nights. You don't see this kind of situation coming often, and it's a big reason I would lay the wood on the Bulls Saturday night. Add in the fact that Chicago lost at home last February to the Nets and you have a Bulls team that will be hungry to beat a tired team that isn't playing well. All signs point to a blowout.
|12-15-12||Canisius +21 v. Syracuse||61-85||Loss||-106||22 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAABB on Canisius +21
Who wants to go against Syracuse right now? The betting public will take one look at this game and see an undefeated Big East team who has coming off three straight wins by 29+ points and be more than willing to lay the big number. I'm going the other way. Sure you probably don't know much about Canisius but this is an under-rated club. They have gone 6-1 on the season and have looked impressive winning their last three games away from home by double digits. Will they win this game? Probably not, but this team will bring full effort the entire game since it's a chance to prove their worth against a quality opponent. While I think this number is a few points high to begin with, the large number also provides us an excellent opportunity for a team like Syracuse to pump the brakes if they do get up big and Canisius to get the back door cover.
|12-15-12||New Mexico State +9 v. New Mexico||58-73||Loss||-106||21 h 34 m||Show|
3* SMASH on New Mexico State +9
Nothing better than taking an underdog in an in-state rivalry game. You know the Aggies are going to have a chance to pull the upset here, they won by nine last year when the Lobos were favored by 12 at home. If you think that means New Mexico will get their revenge, they already did with a 20 point win later in the season. Instead what you find is a lot of value going against a team that has won their first 10 games of the season. Don't sleep on NM State as they have gone under the radar in covering four straight, their only loss in the past month has come by a single point at UTEP. Why is nine points too many? Because both points will be at a premium today. Both teams are allowing under 63 points per game while neither is wearing the nets out. When you get two slower paced teams that play good defense it's tough to win by double digits. Don't count on New Mexico doing that today so take the points.
|12-14-12||LSU v. Boise State -5.5||70-89||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -5.5
LSU is 6-0 but hasn't played anyone. It also hasn't played a single game away from home. I expect it to go down here in its first road contest of the year against a more battle-tested team.
Boise State took Michigan State down to the wire on the road and also beat Creighton on the road so it can definitely hang with the big boys. It is also to our benefit that we get the Broncos in an extremely motivated spot. They were embarrassed at Utah in their last game, and they were also embarrassed at LSU in last season's meeting. They'll be out to erase both blemishes in a big way.
The Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Bet Boise State.
|12-14-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +3||Top||90-86||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +3
Expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead to tomorrow's game. It will be more worried about the Clippers than a Cleveland team it has defeated 8 straight times.
While the Bucks will be looking ahead, the Cavs will be out for some serious revenge. They came close to ending the skid with a 3-point loss at Milwaukee Nov. 3 so they will enter this game with a ton of confidence and motivation.
The Bucks have struggled on the road of late. They are just 1-3 in their last four and 2-5 in their last 7 road games. It is also significant that they enter off a lopsided victory since teams that do tend to be overvalued. Fading the Bucks following a win of more than 10 points has produced a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 instances. Cash in with the Cavs.
|12-13-12||Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 194||Top||90-113||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Hawks Over 194
Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on the under but we won't oblige them. The Bobcats and Hawks both finished under the number in their games last night with 194 and 166 total points scored, respectively. Also, these two have been under this number in each of the season's previous two meetings with 192 and 185 total points scored, respectively. Yet, the books have come in with a total higher than we've seen these two put up this season? They clearly think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I agree fully.
When teams play the second game of a back-to-back, it is typically the defense that suffers. It is always easier to find energy when trying to score than it is at the defensive end. That's a big reason why the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats' last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.
Prior to this season's two meetings, we had seen the Bobcats and the Hawks combine to score more than 194 points in three straight games. It is also worth noting that the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Hawks' last 6 home games. Bet the Over.
|12-13-12||Wichita State v. Tennessee||60-69||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tennessee pk
Wichita State has been a bit of a surprise in the early going as it is 9-0 despite losing five seniors. However, the Shockers haven't really played anyone. Tennessee, which brings back 4 starters, has played a much tougher schedule. Getting tested early on will benefit the Vols in this battle.
Tennessee is just 4-3 but has played just two games at home. Home court has treated the Vols well as they are on a 14-3 ATS run at home and a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem.
It is significant that Tennessee was held to just 38 points on the road in its last game because it has responded at home following similar poor showings. In fact, it is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Martin following a road loss in which it was held to less than 60 points. It is also 6-0 ATS under Martin in home games after being held to 25 points or fewer in the first half of its last game.
In addition, it is significant that the Vols have held each of their last three opponents to 50 points or less. That's because teams headed up by Martin are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games after holding their foes to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Take Tennessee.
|12-12-12||New Orleans Hornets +13.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||88-92||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +13.5
The Hornets got caught looking ahead last night as they were upset at home by the Wizards. This is the game they really want as they have been crushed by the Thunder twice already this season, and last night's poor performance assures us they will be even more focused.
Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that have a winning percentage of .250 to .400 that check into a contest off an upset loss are 58-28 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 10.7 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 19-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.
In addition, New Orleans is on an impressive 21-10 ATS run when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent. It has lost these games on average but only by 4.0 points.
The Hornets played last night but are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Hornets have lost by only 10 and 8 points, respectively in their last 2 visits to OKC. Take the Hornets as they will be the hungrier team tonight.
|12-12-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +8||100-94||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +8
The Clippers are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won 7 straight games and are going up against an opponent that has lost 8 straight. Not only is this a letdown spot following last night's big national TV win over the Bulls, but it is also an extremely fatigued spot for the Clippers.
This will be L.A.'s 4th game in 5 days, and it will already be looking ahead to the 2-day break it gets following this contest. Charlotte has had a day off in between each of its last 2 games and has been at home so it hasn't had to travel. It should definitely be the fresher side tonight.
The Clippers covered by a slim margin last night but are still just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-11-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Chicago Bulls +3.5||94-89||Loss||-110||12 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won three in a row and five of six, and they will be very focused tonight as they look to avenge last month's embarrassing 21-point loss in LA.
Since coach Thibodeau took over, Chicago is an awesome 16-5 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 95.1 to 86.3 in these games.
If you're going to pick a night to fade the Clippers, Tuesday has got to be the night. Consider that LA is just 1-10 ATS when playing on Tuesday evening the last three seasons.
The Clippers have struggled on the road lately. They are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with the win coming by just one points. It is also worth noting that the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Bet the Bulls.
|12-11-12||Tenn Chattanooga +18 v. LSU||67-80||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Tennessee-Chattanooga +18
I expect Chattanooga to be in better form tonight as it just played Saturday and LSU hasn't take the floor since Nov. 29. I expect the long layoff to allow some rust to set in. Plus, the Tigers will have a hard time not looking ahead to Friday's matchup at Boise State.
The Mocs won't be in awe of LSU tonight as they have already stepped on the floor with Kansas. They played the Jayhawks to a 14-point game on the road. In fact, they have lost by more than 18 points just one time this season.
It actually bodes well for us that Chattanooga enters off back-to-back poor showings. Consider that teams that have trailed in their last two games by 10 points or more at the half, provided both they and their opponent are good defensive teams that allow just 63-67 ppg, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons.
It is also worth noting that the Mocs are on a 22-10 ATS run after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
The Tigers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. Take Tennessee-Chattanooga.
|12-10-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +5.5||134-126||Loss||-102||9 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +5.5
Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will show up ready to play tonight, especially since one of these defeats was an embarrassing 114-92 loss at San Antonio. Rest assured, the Rockets will put up a much better fight against the Spurs at home.
Houston has won seven of its last nine at home and one of the two losses came by only three points to the defending NBA champion Miami Heat. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Houston has also had a lot of success at home against the Spurs. The Rockets have won their last three at home in the series and have won or lost by three points or less in eight of the past 10 home meetings.
James Harden could miss this game with an ankle injury, but I like the Rockets here regardless. Bet Houston.
|12-09-12||Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -4||98-90||Loss||-100||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Suns -4
After yesterday's poor showing against the Clippers, the Suns won't be able to wait to get back on the floor for a chance to wash that taste out of their mouths. They won't be able to wait for a piece of the Magic either. Orlando has won the last four in this series, and Phoenix will be hungry to bring that streak to an end.
It is significant that the Magic are a soft 3-7 on the road. That's because the Suns, who have won 5 of 8 at home, are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team that has a losing road record. It is also significant that the Magic are just 7-12 (36.8%) on the season. That's because the Suns are 20-8 ATS in home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 to .400 under coach Gentry. They have whipped up on these foes by an average score of 112.8 to 101.1.
The favorite has been the way to go in this series. It is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meeting and has won these by an average of 15.3 points. Look for this trend to continue.
|12-09-12||UNLV v. California -1||76-75||Loss||-110||11 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on Cal -1
Motivated by an ugly 81-56 loss at Wisconsin in its last game, and further fueled by last season's embarrassing 85-68 defeat at UNLV, expect Cal to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.
UNLV has played one road game this season and didn't come close to covering the spread. That doesn't come as a surprise considering the Rebels are now just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and have lost these by an average score of 69.4 to 72.8.
If you need proof that Cal's loss to Wisconsin will have it fired up, here it is. The Golden Bears are on an awesome 11-2 ATS run in games following a road loss of 20 points or more. They have won by an average score of 74.2 to 68.4 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Bears are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Bet Cal.
|12-08-12||Minnesota v. USC +8||Top||71-57||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on USC +8
USC has dropped four in a row since a 3-1 start and will be ready to go tonight because of it. It lost by 15 at Minnesota last season and will be out for some serious revenge.
The Gophers have won five in a row and are being overvalued on the road because of it. Consider that they are just 3-12 ATS all-time under coach Smith in road games following four or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 73.2 to 69.1 in this situation.
In addition, Minnesota is on an 18-35 ATS slide in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. It has lost by an average score of 73.0 to 65.0 in this situation.
USC beat Texas and showed well against Marquette, San Diego State and New Mexico. With a chance to gain some momentum with a win over a ranked opponent, I'm confident the Trojans will show up tonight.
|12-08-12||La Salle v. Northeastern +4||66-64||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Northeastern +4
Motivated by three consecutive defeats and out for revenge for last season's 17-point loss at LaSalle, Northeastern is in prime position to pull off the upset.
LaSalle, who enters this contest riding high off a blowout win over Penn State, has won four of its last five games and is being overvalued because of it. Consider that the Explorers are on a 9-23 ATS slide when checking in with 4 wins in their last 5 games. They have lost by an average score of 73.8 to 69.1 in this situation.
The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
I'm getting behind Northeastern in this prime spot.
|12-08-12||Purdue v. Eastern Michigan +9.5||44-47||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAB *Afternoon Delight* on Eastern Michigan +9.5
Purdue is down this season, and Eastern Michigan will be awake here after getting smacked by Syracuse. Furthermore, it will be tough for Purdue to get up for this game after annihilating Lamar and remembering how easily it defeated Eastern Mich last season.
Consider that home underdogs or pickems that allow 64.0 points or less per game following a blowout loss of 30 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997. These dogs have only lost by 0.7 points on average in this situation.
Under coach Painter, Purdue has been a terrible investment on the road following a lopsided victory. In fact, it is just 14-24 ATS under his watch in road games after a win by 15 points or more. It has actually lost by an average score of 68.3 to 67.8 in this situation. Take Eastern Mich and the points.
|12-07-12||Northern Illinois v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee -11||73-80||Loss||-110||10 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* Blowout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -11
Off five consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 20-point home loss to Buffalo last game, expect Wisconsin-Milwaukee to show no mercy to this inferior Northern Illinois squad.
The Panthers are on an impressive 16-6 ATS run in home games following a home loss. They are also on a 35-16 ATS run following a loss by 15 points or more.
In addition, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run versus horrible offensive teams that score 57.0 points or fewer per game. It is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams allow 64.0 points or less per game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Panthers.
|12-07-12||Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets -6||Top||109-102||Loss||-105||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nets -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Heat and Thunder and further fueled by a loss at Golden State in the season's first meetings, I expect this rested Brooklyn squad to roll tonight.
The Nets are a terrific 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Prior to losing a close one at home to Oklahoma City, the Nets had won six straight at home by an average of 9.3 points. All of these wins came by more than six points except one. Brooklyn beat the Celtics, Clippers and Knicks during this stretch so it can certainly lay a thumping on the Warriors.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Warriors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 road meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Nets.
|12-07-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Indiana Pacers||92-89||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five, but three of those losses came by four points or fewer. Motivated by those narrow defeats, I expect Denver to take out its frustrations on an Indiana team it has owned.
The Nuggets have won two in a row and 12 of their last 15 against the Pacers. They are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.
Denver has been a strong play on the road where it is 56-38 ATS over the last 3 seasons. It is 44-27 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are even 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
The Pacers check in off back-to-back wins and covers but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. They are also 10-26 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Denver.
|12-06-12||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -7||112-92||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -7
Motivated by a loss to lowly Washington and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at New York in the season's first meeting, expect the Heat to handle their business tonight.
The home team has dominated the series of late, covering the spread in five of the last six meetings. Plus, the Heat have owned the Knicks in Miami. The Heat have won five straight at home in the series with each of these coming by at least 10 points, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Knicks.
Miami is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 12.3 points this season. Dating back to last season, it is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Knicks, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Heat should also be the fresher team as they have had a day to rest and prepare while the Knicks were taken to the brink by Charlotte last night. The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on a days' rest. Take Miami.
|12-05-12||Orlando Magic v. Utah Jazz -8||81-87||Loss||-105||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Jazz -8
Off three consecutive losses, look for Utah to take out its frustrations on an Orlando team it has owned.
The Jazz have won three straight against the Magic by double digits. They have also won their last three at home in the series by nine points or more. Overall, the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Magic.
This is a tough scheduling spot for Orlando, which will be playing its third road game in four nights. The Jazz have had a day of rest following each of their last two games and should be the fresher side as a result.
Utah is 6-1 at home and 5-2 ATS in these games. Take the Jazz as they continue their dominance of the Magic.
|12-05-12||Charlotte U v. Davidson -8||73-69||Loss||-115||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Davidson -8
An experienced Davidson team that returns all 5 starters will be out for some serious revenge tonight as it goes up against a Charlotte squad that won last season's meeting by 23 points. That game was at Charlotte. Recent history tells us we can expect a much different result with Davidson hosting this one.
The home team has won each of the past five meetings, and it's 4-0 ATS in the last four. These four wins have come by an average of 18.0 points. Davidson has won by 28 and 14 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted.
The Wildcats are on a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem, winning these games by an average score of 81.7 to 63.2.
It is also significant that Davidson checks in off a road win at UT Chattanooga. That's because it is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 85.3 to 66.0 in this situation. Bet the Wildcats.
|12-05-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +8||Top||100-98||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +8
Motivated by four consecutive defeats and out for revenge for blowout losses to the Knicks in the last two meetings, I'm expecting an inspired performance from the Bobcats tonight.
While this is a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for the Bobcats, it's a look ahead spot for the Knicks who take on the Miami Heat tomorrow night. New York will be much more concerned with that game and won't give the Bobcats its full attention as a result.
The Knicks have lost three of their last four on the road, and I expect them to have a tough time pulling this one out tonight. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-04-12||Northwestern +11.5 v. Baylor||74-70||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Northwestern +11.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Wildcats will be very focused tonight, especially since they were embarrassed at home by Baylor last season. The Bears won't have the same focus or sense of urgency following a very satisfying win over Kentucky.
The Bears are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a win and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Wildcats, who are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, have a nice chunk of history on their side as well. Consider that December underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that check in off an upset loss are 160-97 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Bet Northwestern.
|12-04-12||Oklahoma v. Arkansas -3.5||78-81||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arkansas -3.5
Motivated and seasoned by three consecutive losses to Arizona State, Wisconsin and Syracuse, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Oklahoma last season, look for Arkansas to bounce back in a big way here.
The Razorbacks are on a 16-6 against the spread run in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have won by an average of 6.0 points in this situation.
The Sooners have not played as challenging of a schedule as Arkansas. The only truly formidable opponent they have played is Gonzaga and the Bulldogs crushed them by 25 points. Arkansas, meanwhile, showed pretty well against Wisconsin and Syracuse, and it will be ready to go here.
It is also worth noting that the Sooners are a lousy 27-55-3 ATS in their last 85 road games.
The home team has dominated this series of late. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won these by an average of 12.8 points. Arkansas has won by 8 and 10 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted Oklahoma. Bet the Razorbacks.
|12-03-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +2||105-104||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Jazz +2
The Jazz will be happy to be back home where they are 6-0 on the season. I expect their home-court dominance to continue against an L.A. squad that has lost its last three on the road both SU and ATS.
The Jazz have owned the Clippers at home over the years. In fact, they are 29-3 SU and 21-10-1 ATS dating back to 1996. Zooming in a few years, we find that Utah is on a 14-3 ATS run at home in the series.
As if the two-game skid the Jazz bring into this game isn't enough motivation, they will be further fueled by losses in their last two meetings with the Clippers. Take the Jazz at home in this highly motivated spot.
|12-03-12||Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets -10||110-113||Loss||-105||11 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -10
Denver has struggled on the road but it has been lights out at home where it has won four of five this season and eight straight against the Raptors, who are just 1-9 on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.
It is also significant that Toronto enters off a win since it is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. Plus, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
Each of Denver last five home wins against the Raptors have come by at least 15 points. Bet the Nuggets.
|12-03-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5||81-102||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing 100-79 loss to the Thunder in their last game, I expect the Hornets to put forth a good showing tonight against a team they have owned.
The Hornets have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and they'll be out for some revenge here after losing the season's first meeting by four points in Milwaukee. New Orleans is 21-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.
It is also significant that Milwaukee enters off a win and cover. The Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Hornets.
|12-02-12||California v. Wisconsin -7||56-81||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -7
Motivated by a rare loss at home in its last game, expect Wisconsin to take care of business this afternoon.
The Badgers are just 4-3 but have played a nice schedule with games against the likes of Florida and Creighton. They will benefit from those early season challengers hers as they go up against a Cal team that is 6-0 but hasn't really played anyone.
Under coach Bo Ryan, the Badgers are a terrific 86-59 ATS as a home favorite or pickem. It is significant that they check in off an upset loss because they are 25-12 ATS in games following an upset defeat under Ryan's watch. It is also significant that they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games because they are 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games under Ryan. They have won by an average score of 71.0 to 57.8 in these contests.
Lastly, the Badgers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Badgers.
|12-01-12||Cal Poly Slo v. Saint Marys CA -13.5||68-86||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Saint Mary's -13.5
Riding high off a big upset win over UCLA, expect Cal Poly to get knocked back down to earth by a hungry Saint Mary's squad that will be looking to end a 2-game skid.
Letdowns have been the norm for Cal Poly following wins or narrow margins in recent seasons. In fact, they are 3-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The Mustangs really find themselves in trouble tonight because of Saint Mary's 3-point shooting. The Gaels are averaging 8 3-point makes per game on the season and are shooting them at a sweet 38.1% clip. They have averaged 9 makes from beyond the arc and have made them at a 42.2% clip in their two home games.
Cal Poly is 3-11 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Mustangs are also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Callero versus teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Lay the points as the Gael's make it rain tonight.
|12-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Orleans Hornets +8.5||100-79||Loss||-110||13 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +8.5
Off a double-digit loss in their last game, out for revenge for an earlier loss to Oklahoma City and having had 2 days to prepare, we find the Hornets in a great spot here.
The Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are on a 21-9 ATS run when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest.
It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
New Orleans has been a terrific underdog investment in recent years. It is 64-46 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 28-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hornets.
|12-01-12||Oakland +4 v. Western Michigan||72-76||Push||0||7 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Oakland +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses, and further fueled by an upset loss at home to Western Michigan last season, Oakland will give the Broncos all they want and more here.
The Grizzlies return 4 starters who have not forgotten about the 91-76 beating WMU handed them last season, and they'll be out for some serious revenge.
While Oakland is an experienced team that showed what it is capable of when it took Pitt to OT on the road, Western Michigan returns just 1 starter.
The Golden Grizzlies are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 road games and 12-3 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points with the more experienced team in this highly motivated spot.
|12-01-12||Brigham Young v. Iowa State -4.5||62-83||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Iowa State -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses away from home to a pair of quality opponents, expect Iowa State to take care of business this afternoon as it returns to the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum.
BYU has struggled on the road against good teams. In fact, it is on a 59-98 ATS slide in road games when playing against a team that has a winning record. The Cyclones, on the other hand, are on a 15-6 ATS run at home when playing against a team that has a winning record.
The Cougars have also been a poor investment in the underdog role. They are on a 52-86 ATS skid when catching points, including a 10-23 ATS slide as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Iowa State.
|11-30-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +4.5||Top||98-86||Loss||-110||6 h 0 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a pair of defeats to Brooklyn this month, the Magic will show up in a big way tonight. They are 2-2 on their season-high five-game homestand, and they
|11-29-12||Marquette +10.5 v. Florida||49-82||Loss||-106||11 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Marquette +10.5
This is a game Marquette wants badly. You might recall that it was upset by Florida in last season's NCAA tournament, and you can bet that it hasn't forgotten about that loss for a second.
The Golden Eagles have been a terrific investment when catching points. They are on a 13-4 ATS run in the underdog role. They are on an even more impressive 30-10 ATS run as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Williams.
Marquette is also on a 12-2 ATS run when playing against top-level teams that have won more than 80% or their games, and it is also an 11-2 ATS run versus teams that have outscored their opponents by 12.0 points or more per game. Take the points with this motivated Marquette squad.
|11-28-12||New Mexico State v. UTEP -3.5||54-55||Loss||-106||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on UTEP -3.5
UTEP has lost four in a row SU and ATS, but those losses came against the likes of Arizona, Oklahoma, Clemson and Vanderbilt. New Mexico State has played just one school from a major conference (Oregon State). UTEP is now at home and battle tested. The lumps it has taken in its last four games will pay off tonight.
The Miners won the most recent meeting at home 73-69. They have also won three of the last four and five of the last seven.
It should also be mentioned that New Mexico State is not the same team it was a season ago. It only returns two starters. It lost trio of players that accounted for an average of 40.0 points and 20.0 rebounds per game.
The Aggies remain a good rebounding team statistically, but consider that UTEP is 6-0 ATS in home games the last three seasons versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 4.0 or more per game. The Miners have won these games by an average score of 67.0 to 59.8.
|11-28-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +8||Top||110-89||Loss||-115||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +8
The Magic have played well at home where they are 4-3 this season. They could just as easily be 5-2 as they fell to Boston in overtime in their last game.
Orlando will be the fresher team tonight as it has had two days' rest. The Spurs have only had a days' rest, and they will be much more interested in tomorrow night's game against the Miami Heat, an opponent they feel is a better measuring stick than the Magic.
I like Orlando catching big points at home here regardless, but it only helps our cause if Tim Duncan doesn't see much of the floor tonight.
Coach Popovich said he plans to give Duncan some breaks. "There'll be times this year when we'll sit him back-to-backs. Win or lose, he's not going to play the minutes he played (Sunday)," Popovich said.
The Magic have struggled in Orlando where they have lost three of four. The lone win came by only two points in overtime. Take the Magic.
|11-28-12||Kent State v. Youngstown State -4||85-78||Loss||-106||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Youngstown State -4
This is a big bounce-back spot for Youngstown State, which has lost three straight since starting the season 3-0. It will be happy to be back home where it has played just one other game this season. The Penguins went 10-4 at home last season and should be a terrific home team again with all the experience they bring back.
While this is a bounce-back spot for Youngstown, it's a letdown spot for Kent State, who is coming off a big upset win over a Big Ten foe (Nebraska).
The Golden Flashes have not been a good investment. They are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games, including 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus the Horizon League.
The Penguins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings. Take Youngstown State.
|11-27-12||Toronto Raptors +5.5 v. Houston Rockets||101-117||Loss||-105||10 h 23 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Raptors +5.5
The Raptors have been a phenomenal investment in bounce-back spots. In fact, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. They are on a 22-9 ATS run after 2 or more consecutive losses and a 20-6 ATS run in road games after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.
While this is a bounce-back spot for the Raptors, this is a sandwich game for Houston. The Rockets are coming off a blowout win over the Knicks, and they take on the the Thunder tomorrow night.
The Raptors have been playing good basketball. Two of their last three games were decided by a single point, and the other was decided in double-OT. The Raptors have also played well versus Houston lately. They won the most recent meeting 116-98 and only lost by 3 the last time they visited the Rockets. The Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.
|11-27-12||Denver +6 v. Southern Miss||50-61||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Denver +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to solid Cal and Colorado State squads, I expect Denver to give a So. Miss team it defeated by 7 points last season a game.
The Golden Eagles are 5-0, and the last thing a team that is rolling wants is a lengthy break. They haven't played since Nov. 21, and recent history suggests that will work against them here. Consider that So. Miss is 0-6 ATS when playing on 5 or 6 days' rest since the beginning of the 2010 season. It has won these games on average but only by 3.3 points.
The Golden Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, plays against any team that has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 20-40% of its games, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.
So. Miss is getting a little too much respect here. Take the points.
|11-26-12||Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -3.5||103-105||Loss||-103||11 h 42 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Back home and motivated following Saturday's loss at Sacramento, and further fueled by a 20-point loss at Denver in the season's first meeting, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight.
The Jazz have long been a strong home team, and they have been dominant at home this season. They are 5-0 at home and have won these games by an average of 10.8 points.
The home team has ruled this series lately. It has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the 4 wins coming by an average of 15 points. The Jazz won 121-102 the last time they host the Nuggets.
The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the favorite is 33-16-3 ATS in the last 52 meetings. Lay the number.
|11-26-12||No. Colorado +15 v. Colorado St||69-85||Loss||-106||10 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Northern Colorado +15
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and hungry to end a two-game skid in this series, look for Northern Colorado to give Colorado State a game tonight.
The Bears have been a terrific investment when catching big points. They are on 14-3 ATS run as an underdog of 10 points or more and have lost these games by just 11.0 points on average. The Bears are on an even more impressive 12-1 ATS run as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points and have lost these games by only 10.8 points on average.
I just don't see Colorado State wanting this game as much. I expect a bit of a letdown from the Rams following their big upset win at Washington. Take the points.
|11-25-12||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic +5.5||116-110||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Magic +5.5
The Celtics are being overvalued on the road following their big win over the Thunder. Boston has been a poor investment recently when checking in off a win at 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games in the situation. The Celtics are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Boston has struggled on the road where it is 3-3 and has only 1 win by more than 5.5 points - a 6-point win in Chicago. It defeated the Wizards and Bucks by 3 and 4 points, respectively and was blown out by the Pistons, a team Orlando has defeated twice this season.
Going back to the beginning of last season, The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They have lost by an average score of 95.8 to 88.4 in these games. Take the points.
|11-24-12||Nevada v. Marshall -7||Top||82-89||Push||0||10 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Marshall -7
Marshall has lost back-to-back games and three of its last four. Motivated by these defeats and finally back home, I expect the Thundering Herd to roll here.
Marshall is a stellar 8-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.1 points in this situation. Also, teams headed up by coach Herrion are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when entering the contest off three losses in their last four games. His teams have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.
It is especially significant that Marshall enters off an upset loss at Hofstra. That's because it is 6-0 ATS all-time under Herrion when coming off an upset defeat. Lay the points.
|11-24-12||SE Missouri St. +5 v. Illinois-Chicago||45-56||Loss||-110||7 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on SE Missouri State +5
Southeast Missouri State is being undervalued here because it is coming off back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread and is up against an Illinois-Chicago squad that check in off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS.
It is significant that the Flames check in off a victory because they are a poor 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. It is also significant that they are at home where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4.
SEMS averages 70% from the foul line on the season but shot just 43.8% from the charity stripe last game and was upset as a result. You can bet they've been living at the line in practice the last few days following that poor performance.
Consider that teams headed up by coach Nutt are 22-9 ATS all-time after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse. They have won by an average of 1.1 points in this situation. Take the points.
|11-23-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics +4.5||100-108||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats, and further fueled by three consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Celtics to leave it all on the floor this evening. Doing so will give them an excellent chance to win this game outright.
The Thunder are 3-1 on the road but are fortunate to be that good as three of these contests have been decided by six points or less and two by two points. The Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage that's greater than .600.
Recent trends are good, but long-term trends are better, especially with a team like Boston that has had the same nucleus for a while. Consider that the Celtics are 164-138 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses under coach Doc Rivers and 152-125 ATS as an underdog under him. Bet Boston.
|11-23-12||Loyola (Md.) v. Rhode Island +2.5||58-54||Loss||-106||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Rhode Island +2.5
Rhode Island is 0-4 but has played well in its last two games. After opening the season with a pair of duds against Norfolk State and Virginia Tech, it has turned in a pair of solid performances against Ohio State and Seton Hall, covering the spread in each. Those strong outings have built the confidence level of the Rams, and I believe they are poised to pick up their first win of the season tonight.
Loyola Maryland is 4-1 but hasn't played the same level of competition as Rhode Island. It has been overvalued by oddsmakers in the early going as it is just 1-2 ATS in the 3 lined games it's played. It remains overvalued here.
The Greyhounds are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 37-50 ATS all-time when laying points under coach Patsos.
The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.
|11-21-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings +5.5||97-113||Win||100||13 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Kings +5.5
Motivated by 5 consecutive defeats and further fueled by a 13-point road loss to the Lakers Nov. 11, expect the Kings to show up in a big way tonight. The Kings went 2-0 at home against the Lakers last season so they won't be lacking any confidence either.
The Lakers are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA, and they have especially been overvalued against losing teams. They are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games versus a team with a losing record as a result. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
The Lakers have been a poor investment on the road. They are just 13-27 ATS in all road games dating back to the beginning of last season, including 1-5 ATS in their last 6.
It also bodes well for us that they played last night as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the Kings.
|11-21-12||Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns -2||Top||87-114||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2
Off three consecutive defeats, the Suns will be lacking no motivation tonight.
Phoenix has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games but is on an awesome 19-8 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.
The home team has dominated this series of late. It is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and has won these games by an average of 21.3 points. The Suns won 125-107 the last time they hosted. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix.
Portland has been a poor investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. It is on a 5-16 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3. It has lost these games by an average of 4.3 points. Take the Suns.
|11-21-12||Texas-San Antonio v. Brigham Young -17||62-81||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Brigham Young -17
Off back-to-back double-digit losses to solid Florida State and Notre Dame clubs, expect BYU to take out its frustrations all over an inferior Texas San Antonio team tonight.
The Cougars have been a solid bet at home lately at 2-0 ATS this season and 5-2 ATS in the last 7. They have also been extremely reliable when laying double digits. Consider that they are on a 74-47 ATS run as a favorite of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 18.9 points in these games.
In addition, BYU is on a 28-14 ATS run as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and has won these games by an average of 18.6 points. Bet BYU.
|11-20-12||New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets +7||102-80||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +7
Motivated by three consecutive defeats and having had two days to rest and prepare, I expect the Hornets to give the Knicks a game tonight.
The Hornets have been an awesome investment at 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. They are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. It is also a good sign that the offense has been performing well. The Hornets scored 113 points last game and have averaged 102.8 over their last four. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
New Orleans have been golden when catching this many points. In fact, they are on a 27-12 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and have only lost these games by an average of 0.8 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take the points.
|11-20-12||Howard +6.5 v. Gardner-Webb||43-55||Loss||-110||6 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Howard +6.5
Off three consecutive defeats to start the season, including back-to-back losses via blowout to superior teams, Howard will be hungry to break into the win column this afternoon as it finally faces another opponent it is capable of beating.
Besides having a strong motivational factor in our favor, we also have a strong system supporting this play. Consider that plays against neutral court favorites or pickems that led in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half are 80-40 ATS since 1997.
It is also significant that Gardner Webb checks in off a loss as it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Take the points.
|11-19-12||Denver Nuggets +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||97-92||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +7.5
Memphis is being overvalued because it has won eight consecutive games SU and ATS and is up against a team that has lost three in a row SU and ATS.
I'll gladly take the points here as Denver is a fantastic 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games by only 1.6 points on average.
It also bodes well for us that Denver was killed 126-100 at San Antonio in its last game. Consider that it is 16-2 ATS all-time under coach Karl after trailing in the previous game by 20 points or more at the half. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 107.2 to 97.8 in this situation.
Look for Denver to take Memphis down to the wire tonight.
|11-19-12||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Arkansas-Little Rock +4||43-59||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arkansas Little Rock +4
Motivated by back-to-back ugly losses on the road, and further fueled by a 5-point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee last season, expect the Trojans to bounce back strong at home.
Besides this being a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for Arkansas Little Rock, this is a letdown spot for the Panthers as they check in off a big upset win over Davidson.
ALR went 7-0 ATS last season when it entered a contest with losses in two of its last three games. It won by an average score of 63.1 to 60.3 in these spots. It is also on a 5-0 ATS run following a loss of more than 20 points, a 14-5 ATS run as an underdog and a 10-1 ATS run versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 4.0 points per game or more. Take the points.
|11-18-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||79-86||Loss||-105||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Cavaliers +6.5
Motivated by 5 consecutive losses and further fueled by 5 consecutive defeats to the 76ers, expect the Cavaliers to leave it all out on the floor. The kind of effort I'm expecting will give the Cavs an opportunity to win this game outright.
The 76ers have struggled at home where they are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, and their lone win during this stretch came by just 6 points. It is significant that they have a losing record at home because the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record. We'll take the points.
|11-18-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Sacramento Kings +3||99-90||Loss||-105||11 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Kings +3
Hungry to end a four-game slide, expect the Kings to take it to the Nets, just like they usually do at home. The Kings have won 12 of their last 15 at home in the series.
The Nets have won four in a row, but three of those came at home. This will be just their third road game of the season, and their first out west. It bodes well for us that Brooklyn enters off a "W" because it is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a win. It's on a 7-17 ATS slide when entering a contest off one or more consecutive wins. In addition, the Nets are only 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games versus a team that has a losing home record. Take the points.
|11-17-12||Oakland +19.5 v. Pittsburgh||62-72||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Oakland +19.5
Pittsburgh enters this contest overvalued following three dominant performances. One of the reasons it is overvalued is because of its dominance on the glass. However, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games of outrebounding their opponents by 6 or more boards over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is a good rebounding team that has outrebounded each of its three opponents, so it should be able to keep up on the interior.
The fact Oakland covered the spread in its last game but lost straight up is significant because it is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Kampe off a cover in a game it lost straight up. It is also worth noting that the Golden Grizzlies are 25-14 ATS in all lined road games under coach Kampe and 19-9 ATS under his watch in road games following a road game. Take the points.
|11-16-12||New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5||95-105||Win||100||15 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies -5.5
The Knicks are 6-0 SU and ATS, and they are getting 5.5 points. I think it's easy to see which side the books want us to take. I'm not going to oblige them.
This will be New York's second road game in as many nights and its third road game in 4 days, and I believe the fatigue sets in tonight.
The Grizzlies have also won 6 in a row SU and ATS since losing their opener, and they have beat the reigning NBA champs (Heat) and the reigning Western Conference champs (Thunder) in their last two by 18 and 10 points, respectively.
Memphis is an awesome 8-0 ATS dating back to the start of last season versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more game. The Grizzlies have won these games by an average score of 98.6 to 86.1. Lay the points.
|11-16-12||South Dakota State v. Hofstra +12.5||63-66||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Hofstra +12.5
Fueled by back-to-back 29-point losses on the road to start the season, I expect the Hofstra Pride to play with some pride in their first home game.
The Pride are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Plus, they have had had four days to prepare while South Dakota State has had only two.
The Jackrabbits are being overvalued on the road because they were an NCAA Tournamant team last season. Books know the public will want no part of a Hofstra team that is coming off a poor season and has looked bad in its first two. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain. Take the points.
|11-15-12||Weber State v. San Jose St +4.5||67-68||Win||100||13 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on San Jose State +4.5
San Jose State is improved, which I believe is evident by how competitive it has been in its first two games. It lost them both but by only 4 and 2 points, respectively. Playing two tough games right out of the gate should benefit the Spartans as they go up against a Weber State team that has only participated in a laugher - a 58-point win against Arizona Christian.
It is significant that the Wildcats held their first opponent to just 26.5% from the field because they are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Rahe in road games after a game where they held an opponent to 33% or worse from the field. They have lost by an average score of 69.7 to 64.0 in this situation.
The Wildcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
These two teams have met each of the past two seasons with San Jose State covering in both. Last season, the 15-point underdog Spartans played the Wildcats to a 2-point game on the road. The year before, the 1-point underdog Spartans defeated the Wildcats 62-46 at home. Take the points.
|11-14-12||Chicago Bulls -2.5 v. Phoenix Suns||112-106||Win||100||13 h 12 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Bulls -2.5
The Suns are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, and Monday's upset win puts them into a downright awful situation. Consider that they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
The fact the Bulls enter with a winning record doesn't bode well for Phoenix either. That's because it is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning mark.
The Bulls haven't lost consecutive games all season. The fact they enter off an upset loss to the Celtics bodes well for us as they are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an upset loss. They have bounced back to win by an average of 10.0. points in this situation.
The Bulls have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7 versus Phoenix. Lay the points.
|11-14-12||Toledo +14 v. Northern Iowa||Top||81-84||Win||100||12 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Toledo +14
I really like Toledo in this spot. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS all-time in road games following back-to-back losses of 10 points or more under coach Kowalczyk. It has lost in this situation but only by an average of 11.9 points.
Furthermore, Northern Iowa is 0-8 ATS all-time after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half under coach Jacobson. They have lost in this situation by an average of 2.7 points.
It hasn't been wise to lay double digits with the Panthers as they are just 10-20 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. They have won in this situation by only 9.1 points on average. Take the points as the Rockets keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think.
|11-13-12||Kentucky v. Duke -3||68-75||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Duke -3
The inexperienced Kentucky Wildcats, who return no starters from last season's championship team, struggled in their opener against Maryland. I expect their struggles to continue as they go up against an experienced Duke squad that brings back four starters.
The Wildcats are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss, 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus ACC opponents.
In addition, favorites checking in off a home win of 10 points or more in first 5 games of the season, provided they closes out last season with four or more consecutive losses ATS, are 25-8 ATS the last three seasons.
Kentucky has plenty of talent, but it will take time for these young guys to jell. I'll side with experience tonight. Lay the points.
|11-13-12||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic +7||99-89||Loss||-110||10 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7
The Magic have lost four in a row but three of those were on the road. They'll be happy to be back home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS on the season.
As if four straight losses aren't enough motivation, the Magic will be further fueled by that fact they have been embarrassed the last two times they've played the Knicks.
New York is clearly being overvalued here because it has won each of its first four games SU and ATS with each win coming by at least 10 points. The fact the Knicks haven't played since Friday works against them as it slows their momentum. I expect them to be rusty as they've played just one game in the past seven days.
Orlando is on an impressive 19-6 ATS run in home games versus team that outscore their opponents by an average of 9.0 points or more per game. The Magic have won by an average score of 98.9 to 94.2 in this situation. Take the points.
|11-12-12||Pennsylvania v. Delaware -9||69-84||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Delaware -9
This is a game Delaware wants badly. All 5 of its starters return, and those 5 remember the 9-point loss they were handed last season by Penn well. The fact they were defeated by 10 by Penn the year before adds more fuel to the fire. And, the fact the Blue Hens lost their opener assures us they will be even more focused and hungry.
Penn returns just two starters and lost its top 2 scorers from last year's team. It bodes well for us that Penn won its first game because it is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. It is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.
Lay the points as Delaware has its revenge.
|11-12-12||Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns +5||100-110||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Suns +5
Right away I like the fact that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45% and 55% of their games the previous season are 36-11 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.5 points on average but have won by an average of 0.8 points. This system is 2-0 ATS this season.
Denver has won 4 in a row SU and ATS, and I don't believe it will give a Phoenix team it has defeated 6 straight times its full attention. It will be much more concerned with its next opponent (Miami), who it lost to earlier this season.
The Nuggets have struggled on the road. They are 2-3 and lucky to have that good of a mark as Golden State took them to double-OT in their last road game. The fact they have a losing road record is significant because the Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road mark.
The home team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and the Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.
|11-11-12||Manhattan +18.5 v. Louisville||51-79||Loss||-110||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Manhattan +18.5
Even if George Beamon isn't able to go due to an ankle injury, I still like Manhattan catching a lot of points against a Louisville team that enters the season overvalued because it made a deep run in the NCAA tournament and covered the spread in its last nine games.
The fact the line opened at 16.5 is significant because Manhattan went 6-0 ATS the past two seasons when valued as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18.0 points and only lost these games by an average of 8.3 points. They are also an awesome 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Take the points.
|11-11-12||Orlando Magic +8 v. Brooklyn Nets||74-82||Push||0||7 h 37 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Magic +8
The Magic will be out for some serious revenge this afternoon following the embarrassing 107-68 loss they were handed by Brooklyn Friday. Consider that the Magic are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
In addition, the Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against teams that allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are also a poor 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Take the points.
|11-10-12||Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors +2||107-101||Loss||-105||14 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +2
Motivated by last night's embarrassing loss to the Lakers, and further fueled by a 39-point defeat the last time it faced Denver, expect Golden State to take care of business on its home floor.
The Warriors have been a strong investment in bounce back spots as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. They are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that they are on a 16-4 ATS run when playing on Saturday.
The Warriors won two of three meetings against Denver last season, including a 112-97 victory in the home meeting. They have won their last two at home in the series and 20 of their last 30.
Denver is just 1-3 on the road this season, and I expect its struggles away from home to continue against this hungry Golden State squad.
|11-10-12||Delaware v. La Salle -7.5||66-73||Loss||-120||6 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on La Salle -7.5
Delaware returns 5 players from a team that upset LaSalle 70-66 as a 2.5-point home underdog last season and it is catching this many points? The books clearly want the money coming in on Delaware, and here's why.
The Explorers are a completely different team at home where they went 14-3 and carried a 10.9-point average margin of victory a season ago. The Explorers are an awesome 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Delaware went just 7-11 on the road last season, and I expect its issues on the road to continue here against a team that will be out to avenge last season's defeat. La Salle returns 4 starters from last year's team, and they have not forgotten about the egg they laid at Delaware.
The Explorers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while the Blue Hens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Lay the points.
|11-09-12||Houston Rockets +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies||85-93||Loss||-105||11 h 14 m||Show|
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7
The Rockets have lost two in a row since starting the season 2-0. Motivated by these defeats, I expect them to give the Grizzlies a game tonight. Consider that Houston is on an awesome 90-46 ATS run in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. It has lost on average in this situation but only by an average of 1.3 points.
The Grizzlies have won three in a row since opening the season with a loss, but their 18-point victory in their last game puts them in a negative spot. Consider that they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Grizzlies are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The Rockets have won the last two meetings in the series and have either won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 13 matchups. Take the points.
|11-09-12||South Alabama +14 v. Florida State||76-71||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on South Alabama +14
South Alabama returns all five starters from a team that was brutally embarrassed by Florida State last season. The Jaguars lost 80-39 to the Seminoles last November, and you better believe they haven't forgotten about it. Driven by that defeat, South Bama will want this game more.
This isn't the same FSU team that defeated the Jags last season as only one starter returns and a half dozen veteran players were lost. The Noles will still be very good defensively, but I expect their offense to struggle in the early going as the new regulars try to get acclimated.
The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games while the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Seminoles are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take the points.
|11-08-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers +1||103-90||Loss||-105||14 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Trailblazers +1
Off last night's satisfying victory over a San Antonio team that had swept them in last season's playoffs, expect the Clippers to suffer a letdown tonight.
Playing back-to-backs can be tough, especially if the second of the two is on the road, as is the case tonight. Making this one even tougher is the fact that Portland hasn't played since Monday so it will be very fresh. It was whipped by Dallas that night so it will be plenty hungry here.
Portland has long been one of the tougher places to play in the NBA which is something the Clippers know all too well. They are just 6-24 there dating back to 1996.
The Blazers are on a terrific 77-51 ATS as a home underdog of 6.0 points or less. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Portland. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Blazers.
|11-07-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers +2||Top||84-106||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +2
As if back-to-back losses at home aren't enough motivation, the Clippers will be further fueled by the fact they were swept by the Spurs in last season's playoffs.
The Spurs aren't the same team on the road where they were fortunate to defeat the New Orleans Hornets in their only other road contest this season. They went 3-0 in L.A. in games against the Clippers last season but two of those wins came by just three points.
Besides having the motivational advantage and the home-court advantage, I expect the Clippers to be the fresher side. This will be San Antonio's fifth game in 8 days, which is an awfully challenging stretch for its aging personnel.
This is a game the Clippers want badly, and I fully expect them to get it.
Fading the Spurs on the road has produced a 100% perfect 5-0 ATS run. Take the Clippers.
|11-07-12||Philadelphia 76ers +1 v. New Orleans Hornets||77-62||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on 76ers +1
Motivated by back-to-back disappointing performance against the New York Knicks, the 76ers will be ready to take their frustrations out on a New Orleans team they have owned.
The 76ers are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with 2 of these wins coming in New Orleans.
The fact the 76ers were upset by the Knicks in their last game is important because they are on a 37-19 ATS run when coming off an upset loss to a division rival. They have bounced back to win by an average score of 96.0 to 92.2 in this situation.
The 76ers took Boston to 7 games in the Conference Semifinals last season. I know this isn't the exact same group, but they still have plenty of key pieces from that team. The last two games can't be sitting well with a team that enjoyed so much success a season ago. Expect them to take care of business in this highly motivated spot.
|11-06-12||Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||93-99||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Motivated by an upset loss at home to the Hornets in their last game, expect the Bulls to bounce back strong tonight against an Orlando team that will be playing its first road game of the season. The Bulls are an outstanding 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss.
The Magic are 2-0 SU and ATS as they have taken it to a pair of poor defensive teams. They will have their work cut out for themselves here against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls currently rank second in scoring defense with 87.3 points allowed per game.
The Bulls are without Derrick Rose but proved they could win big without him for long stretches last season. The Magic won't have it as easy out on the road without the services of Al Harrington and Hedo Turkoglu. Jameer Nelson could miss as well with a groin injury.
The Bulls have failed to cover the number in two of their first three games. However, they are an awesome 19-6 ATS after failing to cover in two of their last three dating back to the beginning of last season. They have won these games by an average of 9.8 points so there is clearly value laying the 8.5 in this spot.
|11-05-12||Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2||Top||92-94||Push||0||13 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings -2
The Kings are 0-3 but each of their first three games have come on the road. At home for the first time this season, expect the Kings to break into the win column in impressive fashion.
While Sacramento is winless, it has been playing pretty good basketball. It played the Bulls to a six-point game to cover the spread and lost to the Pacers in overtime. Both the Bulls and Pacers were playoff teams last season and better teams than the one the Kings will see tonight.
Golden State is coming off a road win against the L.A. Clippers, but the Clipps were in a letdown spot following a big win over the Lakers the night before. The Warriors were also in a bounce back spot following a double-digit loss to Memphis. The Kings will clearly be the hungrier team tonight as they go after win No. 1.
Coming out flat on Monday is nothing new to the Warriors, who are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Lay the number.
|11-04-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors -3||86-105||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Raptors -3
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, expect the Raptors to roll against a Minnesota team that is without starters Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love.
Toronto has won 14 of the last 15 in this series and 8 in a row at home. The Timberwolves are 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Toronto. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
The T-Wolves won their opener against Sacramento by double digits Friday, but they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. The Timberwolves are also 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The Raptors played yesterday but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games. Lay the points.
|11-03-12||Golden State Warriors +9 v. Los Angeles Clippers||114-110||Win||100||15 h 36 m||Show|
3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Warriors +9
Riding high from last night's win over the star-studded Lakers, expect the Clippers to be a little flat tonight. The Warriors, meanwhile, will be hungry following a disappointing performance at home against Memphis.
The Warriors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Golden State is 1-0 ATS in the road underdog role this season and an awesome 23-10 ATS in the role dating back to the start of last season. It is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 versus the NBA Pacific division and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing without a days' rest.
The Warriors have won two of their last three against the Clippers and the loss came by only eight points. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I'll grab them with the points tonight.
|11-02-12||Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic +6.5||89-102||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Magic +6.5
The Magic are being undervalued in their home opener because the perception is that they won't be very good without Dwight Howard. I think they'll be a little bit better than people think. Remember that they went 5-5 ATS without him in the final 10 regular-season games last season. The Magic have some new faces, but they still have a solid nucleus of returners in Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu. The Magic also get a nice boost from the addition of Aaron Afflalo.
The Nuggets have never had much success in Orlando. In fact, the Magic are 20-4 all-time at home in the series. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings,and the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45-55% of their games last season are 34-11 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 5.5 points on average but have actually won by an average of .1 points. Take the points.
|11-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -2.5||84-86||Loss||-105||12 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs -2.5
The Spurs just played last night in New Orleans, but I'm not worried about them being fresh here. The season is young so they aren't feeling the effects of a back-to-back the same way they will be later in the season. If anything, playing last night is a positive because it allowed them to work out a few kinks. In front of their home crowd and up against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs, they'll be ready to go!
The Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a days' rest. They are an awesome 40-17-4 ATS in their last 61 games overall, 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, 33-14-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a win and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
The Thunder have some new pieces to get acquainted with after shipping James Harden to Houston. They won't be the same well-oiled machine they were last season early on as they try to adjust to life without their star sixth man. The Thunder enter the season at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. It is also worth noting that the home team is on a 4-1 ATS run in this series.
|10-31-12||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +7||99-95||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA Western Conference SMASH on Hornets +7
The Spurs are getting a little too much respect in New Orleans where they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
The Spurs won all four meetings last season but their two wins in New Orleans came by just two and three points, respectively. The Hornets typically give just about everyone a game when playing on their home floor. In fact, they enter the season on a 9-0 ATS run at home. It is also worth noting that the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
New Orleans has been pure gold in this point-spread range as it is on a 40-21 ATS run when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has only lost by an average of .7 points in these games.
The New Orleans defense was good last season (ranked 8th with 93.4 points allowed per game) and it should be even better this year with the addition of top overall draft pick Anthony Davis and Robin Lopez. It's never a bad play to take big points with a quality defensive team.
|10-31-12||Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors +2||90-88||Push||0||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* NBA Eastern Conference SMASH on Raptors +2
The Pacers won all three meetings with the Raptors last season but each win came by only five points. Leading scorer Danny Granger played in all three matchups but won't go tonight. That's a nice break for the Raptors as Granger scored 18-plus in two of last season's three meetings.
The Pacers will really miss Granger's scoring as he averaged 18.7 points per game last season, and no one else averaged more than 12.8 points.
Because Toronto was so competitive with Indiana last season despite star forward Andrea Bargnani missing two of the meetings, I still really like the Raptors to win this one even if Bargnani is unable to go because of flu-like symptoms. He's currently listed as questionable.
The home team has had the big edge in this matchup as it is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Pacers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Toronto.
The Pacers aren't the same team without Granger. Meanwhile, I expect Toronto be improved with such additions as Kyle Lowry, John Lucas, Landry Fields Jonas Valanciunas. Take Toronto.
|10-30-12||Boston Celtics +6.5 v. Miami Heat||107-120||Loss||-105||14 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA Season-opening *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +6.5
Tonight will be more about the ring ceremony for the defending champs. The Celtics, meanwhile, will be all business as they look to send a message to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Veterans Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce especially want to show Ray Allen that he made a mistake. Neither has spoken to their former teammate since he rejected a two-year, $12 million offer to return to the Celtics.
Even without Allen, I believe Boston is a better team now that Jeff Green is healthy and sixth-man extraordinaire Jason Terry has been brought aboard.
Boston typically plays Miami tough and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as a result. In fact, the Celtics have won or lost by just 4 points in 7 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points.
|06-21-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -3||Top||106-121||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
5* Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -3
Because of the Finals format, the Heat have an opportunity to win the series tonight at home. The last thing they want to do is go back to Oklahoma City where anything can happen.
LeBron James has been to the Finals twice before only to come up empty handed. With a chance to earn his first ring, I expect him to be unstoppable.
Home court has been very good to the Heat as they are 38-7 at home on the season. They are 10-2 at home in these playoffs with all 10 of those wins coming by at least 4 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS at home this season following 2 consecutive games with a Western Conference foe. They have won by an average score of 104.6 to 87.6 in this situation.
The Heat have been in good rhythm when playing with 1 day of rest and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with that amount of rest and prep time. They have won these games by an average of 10.5 points.
Miami is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite, 20-8 ATS in its last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Miami is the better defensive team, and I'm a firm believer in the old adage "defense wins championships".
The Thunder haven't been able to force Miami into enough turnovers during the series, which is significant because the Heat are 14-4 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. They have won by an average of 100.6 to 86.3 in this situation. Lay the points.
|06-19-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||98-104||Loss||-110||12 h 50 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Thunder +3.5
Despite not playing all that well in Games 2 and 3 and shooting just 43.0 and 42.9 percent from the field, the Thunder lost those games by only 4 and 6 points respectively. They know it's basically do-or-die time tonight so I expect them to be very hungry and very focused.
Despite consecutive ATS losses, the Thunder are still 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are even 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Miami.
Under coach Brooks, OKC is 40-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, including 18-6 ATS in this situation over the last 3 seasons - it has won by an average score of 101.6 to 94.3 in these 24 contests.
The Thunder are also 32-17 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average score of 100 to 97.8 in this situation. These bounce back trends and revenge trends show us that Brooks is capable of making necessary adjustments and that his team is capable of executing those adjustments. They also speak of the heart and resiliency of the team.
Down 0-2 against the Spurs, OKC found another gear. I expect them to find that gear again tonight.
|06-17-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat -4||Top||85-91||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points.
After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City.
Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again.
Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home.
The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points.
|06-14-12||Miami Heat +5.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||100-96||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5
After blowing a 13-point lead in Game 1, and not wanting to fall into a 0-2 hole, expect Miami to be out for blood tonight.
The Heat, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, know they must tighten the screws on the defensive end after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot over 50%. I have no doubt Miami will be better defensively tonight as it has only allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better twice in these playoffs.
We have seen the way, LeBron James has been able to take his game to another level when the Heat had their back up against the wall in each of their previous two series. I don't expect him to wait in this series. After hearing all the talk that Kevin Durant is the best player in the NBA, James will be out to prove otherwise.
The value has lied with the road team in this matchup as the road squad is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It also can't be ignored that the Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points with Miami in this bounce back spot.
|06-12-12||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5||Top||94-105||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -5
The Thunder are 34-7 at home on the season, including a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder won this year's regular-season home meeting against the Heat by 16 points as their depth proved to be too much for Miami. Their depth and fresher legs will be the difference in this one.
It is also worth noting that plays on any excellent offensive team that averages 102 points or more per game that is matched up against a good defensive squad that holds its foes to 88-92 ppg, provided the "play on" side allowed 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.
The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with each of those wins coming by at least 5 points. Looking back, they are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
In addition, the Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when laying points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
In all, we have a 45-0 angle in our favor. Take the Thunder.
|06-09-12||Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||88-101||Loss||-110||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
After getting embarrassed in Game 6, and knowing that this may be their last chance to get back to the NBA Finals, expect the nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to leave it all on the floor tonight. Doing so should give Boston an opportunity to win.
The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Heat and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Miami. The C's have either won or lost by 8 points or less in 8 of the last 10 matchups.
Boston took it on the chin at home in Game 6 as LeBron James delivered a legendary performance, but it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU loss. In other words, this is a resilient team.
It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.
I also like the edge Boston has with Doc Rivers. He has outcoached Erik Spoelstra in this series, and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. We'll take the points.
|06-07-12||Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics +2||98-79||Loss||-102||9 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +2
The Celtics only have 1 loss at home in these playoffs and that defeat came by a single point. In other words, they have either won or lost by fewer than 2 points in all 9 of their home postseason contests. Going back to the regular season, Boston has either won or lost by fewer than 2 points at home in 23 straight. This is a 23-0 trend I'm getting behind this evening.
The Heat have lost 4 of their last 6 on the road in these playoffs, including both games in Boston.
Rajon Rondo has been the difference maker in this series. He has been able to get his team more easy looks than Miami during this series. The Heat have been too much of a one-on-one team, which makes them easier to defend. Consider that Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus poor passing teams that average 20 assists or fewer per game. The C's have defeated these foes by an average score of 93.1 to 82.3
Miami's last 2 losses in this series have come by 2 and 4 points, but recent history shows us that they haven't bounced by well from close defeats. In fact, the Heat are just 6-20 ATS since LeBron James arrived following a loss by 6 points or less. The Heat have gone down by an average score of 99.5 to 97.6 in this situation.
Lastly, the Heat are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the Celtics.