|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-31-13||Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206||Top||97-100||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER
Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much.
Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line.
The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER!
|01-31-13||Troy +11.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||61-65||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Troy +
This is too many points for Troy to be getting against Western Kentucky. The Trojans are 4-6 in the conference, but the Hilltoppers are only 5-6 themselves. The margin of victory in conference games shows Troy at -3 and Western Kentucky at dead even and they have played very similar conference schedules.
The first time these two teams met Western Kentucky won by four points. However, they grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Trojans, including 13 more on the offensive side of the ball. They do have a small rebounding advantage, but you can bet Troy concentrates on hitting the boards tonight to even up that advantage and keep this game close. Plus, they had Jamal Crook that game and he's been out since December 16th. It's no surprise these team was 8-3 with him and 3-8 without him.
Troy continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. They have now won four of six and have covered fix of six. Western Kentucky on the other hand has lost three in a row, and six of seven both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting horrifically, not having broken the 40% mark in their last three games. Their sole win during this stretch was against a terrible Lafayette team at home when they held their opponent to 28.8% shooting.
A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When the underdog is off an upset win as a road underdog the system tightens to 54-21 (72%).
|01-31-13||UMKC +19 v. North Dakota State||34-71||Loss||-106||12 h 9 m||Show|
4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UMKC +
A lot of points being given up by North Dakota State here as they play host to UMKC. The value is with the Kangaroos who are coming off a loss at home as an eight point favorite against Nebraska-Omaha, giving UMKC their second straight loss. The key though is both of those games were at home. UMKC travels very well as evidenced by the three game stretch before their two losses were they covered the number and did so quite comfortably.
North Dakota State is a good team that doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but one weakness is they don't get to the foul line very often. This negates an advantage they would have in that UMKC is a foul happy team. Their main advantage lies with their 3-point shooting against a porous Kangaroo perimeter defense. The only issue with that is when you get up double digits in the second half, coaches want to kill clock and bang it inside, not continue to chuck 3-point shots.
North Dakota State did beat UMKC by 19 points earlier in the year, but like I said this team plays a lot better on the road than they do at home. I think they keep the margin a little bit closer this time around.
A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When that loss was by double digits the system tightens to 434-296 (60%).
|01-31-13||Eastern Kentucky v. Tennessee-Martin +10||65-72||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* on Tennessee-Martin +
Eastern Kentucky is a solid team but they are a little banged up right now. Glenn Cosey leads the team in scoring and has missed six straight games with a finger injury, while Orlando Williams has missed three straight too. Cosey is doubtful and Williams is questionable tonight, so the team might be a little short-handed as they take to the road against Tennessee-Martin.
Tennesee-Martin broke a four game straight up and against the spread losing streak last time out when they pulled the upset off against SIU Edwardsville. That should give this team confidence heading into this game, but Eastern Kentucky is going to have to stay focused after a hard fought game against Belmont. That was a big game and a chance to prove themselves against some elite competition and they failed. Not only that, but they allowed Belmont to shoot 67.4% from the floor against them.
I know Eastern Kentucky has been shooting well lately and could put up a big number, but history works against them there. Double digit favorites who have made 47% or more of their shots over the last four games are actually just 83-134 (38.2%) ATS, making it a nice fade and a play for Tennessee-Martin.
|01-31-13||Hofstra +10 v. James Madison||41-62||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
4* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hofstra +
This is going to be an ugly, low scoring game and this is too many points to pass up on in this spot. Hofstra is just 2-5 in Colonial play but they are only losing by 3.9 ppg. James Madison stands at 6-3 but they are winning by 1.8 ppg. You can see where they might not be quite as good as their wins and losses show.
Neither one of these teams is good offensively. Both shoot at a lower rate than their opponents normally allow. James Madison has been getting points by getting to the line and converting, but Hofstra is a team that plays hands off defense. However, they do a good job of getting to the charity stripe and James Madison has a propensity to foul, so that alone should help the Pride put points on the board.
James Madison has three straight wins, but they were favorites in each. Sure they have the home floor but last year the road team took each game of the series. Six of the last seven games in this series have been decided by three points or less and James Madison hasn't beat Hofstra by double digits since 1/12/2002.
You want to fade double digit favorites who are off a conference win when playing a team off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams scored 65 or less. These teams are 156-91 (63.2%) the last five years when playing on the road.
|01-31-13||Samford +18.5 v. Davidson||51-71||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
3* on Samford +
This is a few too many points for Davidson to be laying in this game and it comes from a little better name recognition and how they played last time out. Davidson went on the road Saturday and took App State to the wood shed. Holding them to 30.2% shooting while shooting 51% themselves. However, they are facing a little better team here tonight and even though this game is on the road, they are expected to win by the same margin.
Samford is 5-2 in Southern conference play, winning by three points per game. They went on the road as 15 point underdogs against College of Charleston and picked up the straight up win. Their only loss came by two points on the road to UNC-Greensboro. This team has shot very well in conference play and should be able to keep somewhat up with the high scoring Davidson attack.
You want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win of 20 or more when they play an opponent off a close loss by three or less. This situation is 65-35 (65%) over the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a road loss when playing a team that is coming off two straight road wins. This situation is 57-23 (71.2%) the last five years.
|01-30-13||Cal Santa Barbara +11 v. Long Beach State||55-57||Win||100||15 h 6 m||Show|
4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UC-Santa Barbara +
This is a few too many points for the Gauchos to be getting tonight against the 49ers. Sure Long Beach has a 11-8 record compared to the 7-12 mark for Santa Barbara, but the point differential is more telling. The 49ers are losing their games by 2.4 ppg while the Gauchos are losing theirs by 4.7, showing these two teams are more even than they appear.
I know Santa Barbara is weak defensively, but that is mainly due to trouble against the 3-point shot. Long Beach isn't a great 3-point shooting team so I don't know if they can exploit that weakness. On the other hand UCSB shoots a LOT of 3-pointers and makes a decent percentage while the 49ers give up a higher percentage than their opponents normally make, giving us an advantage with the Gauchos.
Santa Barbara has lost two straight as a home favorite while Long Beach is on a six game winning streak. The Gauchos have lost five of six at the pay window and the 49ers have won five of six. All this translates into the oddsmakers over-adjusting for this game tonight and the value is with the road team.
You want to fade home double digit favorites off a home win against a conference rival when taking on an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. their opponent. These teams are 762-553 (58%) of the last five seasons.
|01-30-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +3||86-92||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
3* on Phoenix Suns +
Now that the Lakers have won three straight games everyone is jumping back on the wagon, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. All three of LA's win came at home, but now they must take to the road again where they are just 5-15 on the year.
Last night they played a feisty Hornets team at home and it took everything they had to hold off New Orleans and pick up the win. Now this old team has to take to the road on back-to-back nights and I think it's going to affect them more than oddsmakers think.
Phoenix isn't a very good team but at home they have been more than respectable in going 11-11. They lost their last two games fairly badly, but those two games were played outside the state of Arizona.
I like the Suns catching points against a sub. 500 team that is playing on no rest, especially when that team is older like the Lakers and might have more troubles with no rest than others.
|01-30-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Utah Jazz -7.5||99-104||Loss||-105||12 h 38 m||Show|
3* on Utah Jazz -
I like the Jazz to bounce back tonight after their embarrassing loss to Houston the other night by 45 points. It was the worst home loss in franchise history and you can bet the team will be motivated to come out and wash that bad taste out of their mouths against the Hornets. Since Utah was on a six game home winning streak before that game and they have a very strong historical home court advantage I think that was an outlier more than the start of a trend.
New Orleans on the other hand has been playing well, but will come into this game off a back-to-back. Not only was that game hard fought, but it was against one of the league's marquee teams in the Lakers. New Orleans gave that game all they had and still came away with the loss. Now they have to continue their road trip in a hostile environment playing a team that is fighting for one of the last spots in the Western Conference playoff race.
I'll lay the number here as I think Utah wins by double digits.
|01-30-13||Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||104-88||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight.
Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division.
A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee.
|01-30-13||Drake v. Southern Illinois -3||61-56||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Southern Illinois -
Southern Illinois is going to be out for revenge here against Drake tonight. The Bulldogs have not only beaten the Salukis the last seven times these two teams have met, but the four times at home as well.
Southern Illinois has lost four in a row and three in a row at the pay window, so the team is struggling. The team was an underdog in all four so it's not like they were expected to win, plus Creighton is the only team that blew them out by a few points more than was expected. Drake has pulled off a couple of nice upset wins recently at Illinois State and at home over Creighton, but against the bottom teams in the conference like UNI and Missouri State they have come up empty.
Drake is 5-14 AST as a road underdog the last two years and Southern Illinois is 51-28 ATS after a game with nine or less assists since 1997. I think the recent play of these two teams has Drake over-valued and Southern Illinois under-valued, so the small home favorite is appealing here tonight.
|01-30-13||Central Florida +3 v. Tulane||58-50||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
3* on Central Florida +
Tulane is an over-valued team that has lost three of their last four. Their only conference wins came at home against bad teams in Tulsa and Rice. They have on win on the year against a team that even is in the top 130 of my power rankings and it was against Alabama back on December 30th.
Central Florida on the other hand has looked good in Conference USA play. They have won four of their five games and three in a row. Their only loss came against East Carolina on the road and occurred in overtime.
The Knights are efficient on offense and defense, while Tulane has struggled on both ends of the floor in conference play. Over the last five games UCF is showing 47.4% from the floor while allowing 41.4%. Tulane on the other hand is giving up 47.5% and shooting only 38.4%.
Central Florida has won five straight in this series and is the better team here today. They should win this one outright.
|01-30-13||William Mary +8 v. Delaware||Top||56-66||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on William & Mary +
We played on Delaware Monday night to end their three game losing streak both straight up and at the pay window and they came through for us against Drexel, but due to that upset win they are laying too many points here tonight to William & Mary. Drexel got off to a great start in that game and had a double digit lead late but nearly blew the game and cost themselves a win. They are on short rest and after an emotional win like that I think this team is going to be a little spent coming into this matchup.
If you look at these two teams you see very even 8-11 to 9-11 records, but the scoring margins tell a different story. The Tribe are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.3 ppg while the Fighting Blue Hens are losing by 1.4 ppg. The Tribe are only 2-6 in the conference, but they have lost two games this year on the road in double overtime so they could just as easily be 4-4.
I'll take the large number of points here with an undervalued team taking on an opponent on short rest.
|01-30-13||Appalachian State +11.5 v. Coll Of Charleston||59-72||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
3* on Appalachian State +
I know College of Charleston gets after it on the defensive side of the floor, but they are not good enough offensively to be laying double digits here to Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are not as bad as their 8-11 record would indicate as they are only losing by one ppg. The Cougars may come into this one at 14-7 but they are only outscoring opponents by three points per game, so the difference between the two teams isn't enough to justify the high point spread.
The reason for this big number is two fold. One is that Charleston is coming off a 29 point whooping of Wofford, but one game does not make a season. The other is that App State has lost four in a row against the spread and is coming off a 21 point loss to Davidson. Davidson though is an elite team and they were getting double digits there so the blowout isn't a shocker to me. I think the lines have been over-adjusted due to the recent play, and there is value on the road dog here tonight.
You want to play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This system is 73-39 (62.2%) over the last five seasons. App State is 18-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years and 10-1 ATS against teams allowing opponents to shoot less than 42%. They are also 10-2 ATS as a double digit dog the last three years and 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss by 20 points or more since 1997.
|01-30-13||Massachusetts +9.5 v. La Salle||61-60||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
3* on UMass +
La Salle is being over-rated here today because of how they have played lately, and I think that is also why the Minutemen have a great chance of pulling off the upset. This Explorers team is coming off back to back wins against Butler and VCU. That is no easy feat, but it primes them for a letdown against UMass today.
The Minutemen aren't a team you want to face with less than your full focus either. This team lost early to NC State and Miami, which looking back doesn't seem so bad. They have some decent wins against Richmond last time out, East Carolina, Providence and Harvard too.
LaSalle plays pretty solid defense because they force a lot of turnovers, but UMass takes care of the ball. They also shoot at a decent rate and with the Explorers giving up a lot of easy buckets trying to force turnovers, they shouldn't have a problem putting points on the board tonight. LaSalle on the other hand can struggle to score. UMass's main problem si they foul too much but the Explorers are not a good foul drawing team.
This is a good matchup for the Minutemen and they are catching enough points for me to take them.
|01-30-13||Northwestern +17 v. Michigan||46-68||Loss||-107||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* on Northwestern +
Jordan Morgan is doubtful tonight and while the Michigan Wolverines have plenty of other talent on this team, he's a solid role player who rebounds and gets his points efficiently. I think his loss will be felt more than most people think. Michigan has a tough stretch with Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up so I don't think they are going to go all out with a player already down to injury. They will want to save up for the upcoming game that will go a long way to determining the Big Ten champion.
You want to fade double digit favorites off a win against a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by double digits. This situation is 100-52 (66%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs who are revering a home loss to an opponent when two winning teas meet. These underdogs are 111-58 (66%) since 1997.
Coach Bill Carmody is 21-9 ATS at Northwestern when playing teams that have won 80% more of their games during the second of the season and this team is 6-0 ATS on the road after allowing opponents to score 30 or less in the first half of two straight games.
|01-29-13||Nevada +14.5 v. UNLV||54-66||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
3* BAILOUT on Nevada +
I think this is a few too many points for Nevada to be getting in this rivalry game against UNLV. The Rebels don't force many turnovers and the Wolfpack are a solid ball handling team, so they should get plenty of possessions that end in shots.
Another thing I like about this game is how well Nevada gets to the line, and UNLV has a propensity to foul their opponents. On the other hand the Rebels don't shoot many free ones while the Wolfpack play defense without fouling. Nevada shoots four more free throw attempts than their opponents usually average and they hit 75% of their attempts.
You want to play on road underdogs off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog playing their 3rd game in a week. These teams are 106-63 ATS (62.7%) over the last five seasons.
UNLV hasn't won a conference game by more than 12 points. This team was favored by double digits against Air Force and only covered by five. Nevada has two upset wins in their last three games, and while I don't think they win outright they should keep it close like they did last year when they played the Rebels to a 67-71 final in Las Vegas.
|01-29-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons||117-90||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
The Bucks are on a bit of a roll in winning four of their last five and seven of ten since canning Scott Skiles, but I think they are in a bad spot here tonight. The Pistons have been playing pretty well lately themselves, covering four of their last five games and they have won their last two home games by 15 points each.
The Bucks are over-valued a little bit because they have a decent record at 23-19, but they are actually getting outscored by their opponents. Detroit on the other hand is 17-27 but is only getting outscored by one ppg so I think they are better than their wins and losses reflect.
Milwaukee has to take to the road tomorrow night and face the Chicago Bulls. Now that they have played themselves into the playoff picture I'm sure the players might be looking ahead against a tougher opponent and might just slip up tonight in Detroit. I'll back the home team.
|01-29-13||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5||108-95||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has been paying excellent basketball lately, winning three in a row as outright underdogs of four points or more. Now they are an underdog at home again versus a Golden State team that is playing their fourth game in five nights.
Golden State might appear to be a good road team with their 13-11 record and their win in Toronto last night, but this team is giving up 102.3 ppg away from home and only scoring 100.7. That's not the margin of a winning team, rather a losing one.
The Warriors are 54-81 ATS on the road after scoring 110 or more points and 78-107 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite since 1996. The Cavs keep their streak alive and pull off another upset win here at home.
|01-28-13||Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz OVER 207.5||125-80||Loss||-100||16 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER
I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall.
The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183.
These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER.
The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year.
|01-28-13||Sacramento Kings +8 v. Washington Wizards||96-94||Win||100||14 h 12 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Sacramento Kings +
The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Washington Wizards tonight in this spot. The Wizards have won 10 straight games against the spread and five upset wins during that stretch. The Kings on the other hand have lost four straight both straight up and against the spread so are out of favor with oddsmakers and the public alike.
However, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they have beat the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games against opponents who were beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 24-7 (77.4%) the last five seasons.
Sacramento did beat Washington during their streak by one as a five point favorite, so they have had some recent success against this Wizards team. I think they keep it close again tonight and pick up the cover.
|01-28-13||Delaware +5 v. Drexel||66-64||Win||100||20 h 28 m||Show|
3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Delaware +
These are two very evenly matched teams but we are getting some value here due to the way the two teams have played recently. Drexel has had three straight wins while Delaware has lost three straight. What makes those losses even more frustrating is they were only getting 1.5 points last time out and were favored the previous two games. The public and most bettors might be bailing on this team, but I think this is a good spot for them to get out of a rut.
Delaware has been a good team at bouncing back, going 35-18 ATS on the road after a double digit loss since 1997. Drexel on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite this year and head coach Bruiser Flint is just 12-24 ATS after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot less than 33% from the floor.
The fact that Drexel played on Saturday while Delaware hasn't played since Thursday means the Blue Hens had more time to prepare and should keep this one close.
You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two margin losing teams (winning percentage in the 40's). These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
|01-27-13||Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks -7||95-110||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas -
The Phoenix Suns have been playing good basketball since making their coaching change, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. They played back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday, had Friday off before heading to San Antonio to take on the Spurs last night. Now they get Dallas on back-to-back off a tough loss to San Antonio. You want to take home favorites who are playing their second game in five days against a team who is playing their 4th in five. These teams are 32-9 (78%) ATS the last five years.
Dallas has been playing extremely well lately. They have won five of seven, but have covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored more than 103 points in eight straight games. Phoenix on the other hand has broken the century mark just once in 2013. I think the Mavs have more offensive firepower and they blow the Suns out by double digits here today.
|01-27-13||Florida Intl. +5 v. South Alabama||58-60||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Florida International +
Florida International is coming on strong and I think they are going to get their revenge here today. South Alabama won on the road in the first matchup by a score of 79-68, but they shot 13-of-24 (54.2%) from 3-point range to do so. Florida International on the other hand was just 6-of-24 (25%). Since both these teams shoot 34.1% on the year and Florida International is better at defending the three, this stat alone should even out and cause this to be a closer game.
The Golden Panthers are playing some great basketball lately too. They have won seven of their last eight games and two of those were upset victories. They haven't been favored by double digits in that time either, so they are getting the job against teams they should be but not necessarily inferior competition. I think they carry that success over here today.
You want to take teams revenging a home loss when they are off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. These teams are 247-163 (60.2%) when getting points.
|01-27-13||Manhattan +6.5 v. Rider||62-51||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Manhattan +
I like Manhattan to get their revenge against Rider on Sunday. The Jaspers were upset by the Broncs back on 1/10 by a score of 69-60, but a couple of things happened in that game that make me think the roles will be reversed this time.
First, Rider out rebounded Manhattan by 16 boards, and they aren't especially strong on the glass. In fact, they get out rebounded on the season. Second, they shot twice as many free throws as the Jaspers. Both teams foul more than they should to send the opposition to the line, but that was an outlier.
This should be a low scoring game since both teams are strong defensively and weak on the offensive side of the floor, so I'll take the points when they will be coming at a premium today.
A system that supports our play says to take the road team when they are revenging a loss against an opponent and playing with one day of rest or less. These teams are 336-235 (58.8%) over the last five seasons.
|01-26-13||Indiana Pacers +2.5 v. Utah Jazz||110-114||Loss||-110||15 h 53 m||Show|
3* on Indiana Pacers +
This is a good spot to take Indiana here tonight. The Pacers are off a disappointing 20 point loss at Portland on Wednesday but had a couple of days to rest up and prepare for Utah here tonight. Utah on the other hand is playing their third game in four nights and is coming off a back-to-back. They lost badly to the Lakers last night in LA and now have to travel back home to face an angry Indiana team.
The Pacers are also the better team in my mind. They are outscoring opponents by nearly two points per game and even though Utah's record stands at 23-19, they are dead even in scoring margin.
You want to take road teams after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, when they are a good team that has won 60%+ of their games on the season. These teams are 54-28 ATS in this situation the last five years. You also want to fade teams revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 81-42 (65.9%) ATS the last five years.
|01-26-13||Austin Peay St +6.5 v. Tennessee Tech||52-70||Loss||-110||22 h 54 m||Show|
4* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on Austin Peay +
Two bad teams meet up today but I think Austin Peay takes home an easy cover. They are 16-6 ATS on the road against teams scoring less than 64 points per game since 1997 while Tennessee Tech is just 1-8 ATS at home against teams with a losing record the last three seasons.
Tennessee Tech is one of the worst shooting teams I have seen. They are coming off a 13-for-51 (25.5%) performance against Murray State, but they have now shot 37% or worse in six of their last seven games. Austin Peay on the other hand is coming off back-to-back games in which they shot 50% or better from the field.
Tennessee Tech doesn't play bad defense, but they are a little more susceptible from behind the arc and the Governors are making 42.4% of their 3-point shots on the road this season. Defensively, Austin Peay isn't the greatest but I don't think that is going to matter against a team that shoots as bad as Tennessee Tech does.
|01-26-13||Florida v. Mississippi State +20.5||82-47||Loss||-110||21 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Mississippi State +
This is a little too good of value for me to pass up on. Right now these two teams couldn't be any different in the public's eyes. You have Mississippi State who has lost three games in a row both straight up and against the spread. They have been beaten by 15+ points in each game and now they face a Florida team that has won seven in a row since a loss to Kansas State and have covered in six straight games.
The Gators aren't just winning but they are winning in convincing fashion. They have won by 15 or more points in each of their last seven games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the Gators to stay focused playing a bad team here Saturday night.
Teams find it tough to maintain a high level of focus against weak competition. That is why if you would have faded double digit favorites who have won 80%+ of their games and have also covered four straight games you would be 40-16 ATS the last five seasons if you backed a team with a losing record. You also want to fade favorites of 20+ off a double digit win against a conference rival. This situation is 64-32 ATS the last five years.
|01-26-13||New York Knicks -3 v. Philadelphia 76ers||80-97||Loss||-105||12 h 23 m||Show|
3* on New York Knicks -
This is too small of a number for New York to be laying here tonight. The Knicks are 26-14 on the season and winning by 4.8 ppg while the Sixers are 17-25 on the year and losing by 4.2 ppg. New York has played well in winning three of their last four games, including a road win at Boston Thursday night. They were favored by -1.5 in that game and now lay only one point more against a worse team.
The Sixers have lost eight of their last 10 with the two wins coming over Toronto and a Houston team that is slumping badly. Now they face a Knicks team that they have lost to by a combined 38 points in two games this season. I don't think now is the time they get back on track as I expect the Knicks to win handily here tonight.
|01-26-13||Oklahoma +14 v. Kansas||54-67||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Oklahoma +
This is too many points for the Jayhawks to be laying to a pretty good Oklahoma Sooners team. Kansas was favored by only 11 points at home against Colorado, 12 v. Belmont, 15 against Richmond, 13 v. Temple, 11.5 against Iowa State, and 10.5 against Baylor. Oklahoma is right in the mix with all of those teams and yet is getting a few extra points here today.
Kansas is hot right now and stand at 14-1 on the season, but that doesn't mean they have looked good the entire year. Temple played them tough down to the wire and Iowa State took them to overtime. This team is coming off two close wins at Texas and Kansas State. They haven't been shooting nearly as good and that is going to make it difficult for the Jayhawks to cover a large spread like this.
You want to fade double digit favorites coming off 10 or more straight wins. Doing so would have given you a 156-90 (63.4%) ATS record the last five years. If it's a team that has won 80%+ of their games playing a team that has won at least 60%, the record jups to 62-29 (68.1%). I'll take the points as I think this one is closer than the oddsmakers think.
|01-26-13||UCLA v. Arizona St UNDER 141.5||Top||60-78||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
5* Pac-12 Total of the Year on UCLA/Arizona State UNDER
Both of these teams are off some high scoring games, but I think points will be at a premium here tonight. Arizona State is coming off an overtime win against USC on Thursday night by a score of 98-93. They shot over 50% and allowed over 49%. This is a team that allowed five of six opponents to shoot less than 37.5% at the end of December and beginning of January, so I think they will tighten things up after a defensive lapse last time out. For the season they are allowing opponents to shoot only 38.6% on their home floor.
UCLA has been playing some higher scoring games this year than in year's past, but they are scoring 9 less points per game on the road than they are at home. they do not shoot a lot of three point baskets, so they don't get points in a hurry, but they also defend the three well, allowing opponents to shoot just 29% against them. Neither team fouls, so points from the charity stripe won't be easy to come by either.
This will be a low scoring game and the odds makers have over adjusted for what happened last time out. Take the UNDER as it should cash with ease.
|01-26-13||DePaul +16.5 v. Pittsburgh||55-93||Loss||-100||17 h 24 m||Show|
4* BIG EAST BLOOD BATH on DePaul +
This is a classic look ahead spot for the Pitt Panthers. They are playing a not very good DePaul team today, but on Monday have a big showdown with Louisville. Don't think that these kids aren't looking ahead to that game, regardless of Louisville suffering a couple of losses this week.
I know DePaul blew their chance for a conference win by losing at home to St. John's last time out. However, you want to fade double digit home favorites who are off a conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so would have gone 80-42 (65.6%) ATS the last five seasons. DePaul has had all week to think about that loss and to help motivate them to get back to business since the loss occurred last Saturday. Don't think these kids didn't go at it hard this week to try to prepare for Pitt.
These two have played three common opponents this season and DePaul was only outscored by 5.3 points, Pitt on the other hand only averaged a one point victory. This is a lot of points, and too good to pass up.
|01-26-13||Dartmouth +16.5 v. Harvard||Top||77-82||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
5* IVY LEAGUE NO BRAINER OF THE YEAR on Dartmouth +
Dartmouth isn't very good, but this is a lot of points to be getting here today. They are only 4-11 on the year, but they are losing by a score of 64.9 to 60.3 so their record is worse than they really are. Harvard is a good team that comes into this game at 9-6 but they play at a slow pace, so beating a team by nearly 20 points is a tall order in my mind. They haven't attempted more than 48 shots in any of their last four games.
Both of these teams might be a little rusty to start out, since Dartmouth has each has played just one time since they last met back on 1/12. Harvard won that game by 10 points, but they aren't going to shoot 60%+ from the field again so getting to a double digit victory seems like a stretch to me.
Dartmouth is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record the second half of the last three seasons while Harvard is 0-7 ATS at home after two straight games in which they attempted 50 or less shots the last two years.
A solid system supports our play here that say to take double digit underdogs who are revenging a home loss v. an opponent. These teams are 761-552 (58%) ATS over the last five seasons, but when you tighten it up where the team is revenging a double digit home loss the system is 394-263 (60%).
|01-25-13||Utah Jazz +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||84-102||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
3* Utah Jazz +
The Lakers are not a good team right now and I've lost all confidence in them. Not only that but they are in a pretty bad rest situation. LA played three road games in four nights, then only had a day off before heading home to face the Jazz.
Utah on the other hand is playing only their third game in 11 days and has won four in a row, six of seen, and eight of their last 10. Even though they aren't great on the road they have won three of their last five away from home.
Everyone keeps thinking the Lakers are going to come around at some point, but this team just doesn't fit well together. Dwight Howard is back to his pouting ways and having Gasol play limited minutes off the bench is laughable. I'll keep fading them until they prove me wrong.
A solid situation backs our play that says to fade teams out for double revenge that are off three or more straight road losses. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4%) over the last five seasons.
|01-25-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 209.5||105-95||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER
This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats.
The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight.
A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons.
|01-25-13||Houston Rockets +3 v. New Orleans Hornets||100-82||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Houston +
I've been burned the last two times out thinking the Rockets were going to come out of their funk, but I think tonight is the night they actually do so. These two teams met back on January 9th and Houston was a two point favorite down in New Orleans. Even though they lost the game, the line change shows you how much the odds makers have changed their outlook on these two teams and I think it's a little too drastic of a move in such a short period of time.
New Orleans has played well lately, but they are still getting outscored by four ppg on the season compared to a Rockets team that is outscoring their opponents by one each time out. Even with the home court advantage that would leave this line to be closer to a Houston as a small favorite instead of a small underdog.
|01-25-13||Detroit Pistons v. Miami Heat -9.5||88-110||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* on Miami Heat -
The Heat were a little rusty last time out, but came alive in the second half and overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors. It was understandable why Miami got off to such a slow start, they had five days rest coming into the game and were off a big win in LA over the Lakers.
Detroit has been playing pretty well lately too, which is why they are over-valued here tonight. They have covered in three straight games, but will be playing their fourth contest in six nights, while this will only be Miami's second game in more than a week.
The other aspect I like about this game is miami will be out for revenge. The Heat were six point favorites in Detroit just after Christmas and lost by ten to the Pistons. Don't think Detroit won't have Miami's full attention tonight, and that is scary if you are a Pistons fan. Lay the points here.
|01-25-13||Canisius +1 v. Rider||67-50||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Canisius +
Despite struggling a little bit lately, I think Canisius is the better team and should pick up the win over Rider here tonight. The Golden Griffins are an excellent three point shooting team. They attempt 24 3-point shots per game and are hitting 39% of them, and even though they shoot so many long range bombs they still do a good job of getting to the line where they convert over 72% of their free throws.
Rider has been playing well but are over-valued in this spot. The Broncs have covered in seven straight games and have a five game winning streak. They have played solid defense, allowing four of their last five opponents to shoot less than 40%. The problem is they aren't that strong offensively, and none of the teams they have played during this stretch can shoot the three like Canisius.
Rider beat the Griffins twice last year, and I think this team will be out for some revenge here tonight so take the small number.
|01-24-13||San Diego +14.5 v. Saint Marys CA||48-81||Loss||-110||14 h 10 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on San Diego +
St. Mary's has looked good so far this year, winning seven of their last eight games and that sole loss being at Gonzaga. However, I think they are laying a few too many points here to a decent San Diego squad. The Torreros were on a five game winning streak of their own with upset wins at San Francisco and at Pepperdine. Their streak came to an end at BYU, a team that is comparable to what they will face here tonight.
St. Mary's shoots a lot of three-pointers, and hits them at a high rate (38.5%). However, San Diego does a good job defending the perimeter, allowing only 30.6% of their opponents three-point attempts to hit. This is a pretty solid matchup for the Torreros and I think they keep it close enough to get us the cover here tonight.
Our play falls into a nice situation here that says to fade double digit favorites off a conference win by 20+ points or more when playing an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This situation has gone 72-38 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a conference road loss when playing an opponent off two or more straight road wins. This system is 57-22 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.
|01-24-13||Idaho State +14 v. Montana||51-70||Loss||-110||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Idaho State +
I'm not going to sugar coat this one that Idaho State is a decent team with a chance to win. They aren't a good team and a win would be a surprise. However, a couple of things I like here. The first is that it's a classic look ahead game for Montana. They have Weber State on deck Saturday so you can bet they spent a little bit of time preparing for that game instead of worrying about the 4-13 Bengals.
The other thing I like is that both of these teams play at a very slow pace. Idaho State averages under 60 possessions per game, while Montana is only at 65. With few chances to score, it's always a wise idea to take the double digits.
Last year Idaho State went up to Montana and lost by 36 points. They were also beat on their home floor by 24. The Grizzlies are going to take this team lightly, but Idaho State should be giving this game their full attention to avoid another embarrassment. I'll take the points.
A few systems support our play here today that say to play against home double digit favorites off a home conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This system has gone 96-55 (63.6%) ATS since 1997. You want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams score 65 points or less. This system is 189-114 (62.4%) the last five years.
|01-24-13||Austin Peay St +10.5 v. Jacksonville State||74-81||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
3* on Austin Peay +
The public looks at this game and see a 12-7 Jackonsville State team at home against a 5-15 Austin Peay and immediately sides with the home team, but not so fast. The Governors have a great shot at upsetting the Gamecocks in this one. They are a solid three-point shooting team that hits 40.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The Gamecocks have done a good job of defending the three-point shot this year, but they haven't seen anyone who can shoot like this.
The Gamecocks shoot just 42.5% from the floor and 30% at home from behind the arc, so I don't know how they are going to put up enough points in this one to cover a double digit spread. The Governors are coming off a pair of upset losses on their home floor, and I think the change of scenery does them well here tonight. Take the points in what should be a close game.
|01-24-13||Tennessee-Martin +5.5 v. Eastern Illinois||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||11 h 10 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Tennessee-Martin +
I'll take the points here with the Skyhawks. Eastern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams I have seen, allowing opponents to make 48.2% of their shots on the season. I know that Tennessee-Martin isn't going to set the nets on fire with how they shoot, but they should get some easy buckets tonight.
I also like the fact that the Panthers slow the pace down so much with only 60 possessions per game. When you have a slow down team like this who allows such a hefty field goal percentage, the points are too good to pass up.
Tennessee-Martin is 15-3 ATS against teams who average 53 or less shots per game the last three years while Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their games the last three, a big reason they are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite during that time.
|01-24-13||New York Knicks -1 v. Boston Celtics||89-86||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -
Boston is struggling again and I don't see them getting out of their funk tonight against New York. The Celtics have lost four in a row and they were favored to win each of those games. The last two weren't even really close and those losses came to Detroit and Cleveland due to them shooting below 40% from the field.
New York comes into this game well rested due to their trip last Thursday to London, and you know the Knick players have had this circled since the last time these two teams played on January 7th. That is when Kevin Garnett supposedly said some out of line thing to Carmelo, and I have a feeling New York is going to rally around their star tonight and give this Celtic team some payback. I'll lay the small number and roll with the Knicks.
|01-24-13||Georgia Southern +8 v. Appalachian State||62-64||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
4* CBB VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Southern +
Appalachian State is laying a few too many points here in this spot. Georgia Southern got caught taking a bad opponent lightly their last time out and lost at home by 15 points to the Citadel. They were favored by double digits and never really showed up. Those games are normally followed by hard work and attention to detail in practice, so I think they come back in a big way tonight.
App State is off a couple of disappointing road losses in games that went down to the wire, but this team is going to have trouble blowing anyone out the way they play defense. The Mountaineers are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.7% on the year.
I also like how the Eagles play at a slow pace. When you limit the number of possessions and you are getting this many points, it normally spells a cover.
|01-24-13||IUPU-Indianapolis +13 v. Oakland||71-89||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
3* on Indiana-Purdue +
I like this matchup with Indiana-Purdue going on the road to take on Oakland. The Jaguars are a pretty good shooting team, especially from three-point range where they have hit 39.2% of their shots on the road. That's good because Oakland allows 40.3% 3-point shooting at home, and gives up about three more outside looks per game than their opponents average.
Neither one of these two teams can play defense, but IUPUI is the better shooting team. Even though they don't get to the line as often, nor do they rebound as well, the better shooting team getting this many points is too good to pass up.
A couple of systems support our play here on IUPUI tonight. One says to play against home teams off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more when they also have a losing record. This situation is 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years. Another solid situation is to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS the last five years.
|01-23-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +2||99-104||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Golden State Warriors +
This is a tough situation for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they playing off a back-to-back, but they are coming off a big win over the LA Clippers, the team many think is their top competition for the Western Conference. Not only that, but they played an overtime game in Denver on Sunday and they will be playing their 7th game in 11 nights.
The Warriors have looked tough in their last two games with Stephen Curry back at full strength. they played tough in San Antonio, then beat a hot Hornets team in New Orleans and then the Clippers. I don't think they are getting enough respect here tonight, especially with the rest situation factored in. I'll gladly take the Warriors in what should be an upset win.
|01-23-13||Washington State +11.5 v. Oregon||61-68||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* on Washington State +
This is a sandwich game for Oregon. The Ducks are off a big win at UCLA last Saturday and will head to Washington to face a Huskies team that is 4-1 in Pac-12 play this Saturday. In between is a Washington State squad that is just 1-4 in league play and 10-8 overall.
The Cougars though will be out for revenge for what happened last year. They lost by nine points up here in Eugene and by 17 points at home to the Ducks. That means this team will be getting their full attention here today as they would like nothing more than to upset the conference leader.
Washington State plays at a very slow methodical pace and will limit the possessions the Ducks have. With a low scoring game like that it's tough not to like a double digit underdog.
You want to play against home favorites of double digits off a conference win playing against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This play has gone 78-41 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to fade double digit home favorites after seven or more straight wins when the team has won 80% or more of their games on the season. This situation has gone 199-127 (61%) the last five years.
|01-23-13||Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets -2||105-95||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
3* on Houston Rockets -
Houston ended their losing streak on Monday but they still haven't covered the last seven games. This has created some value here tonight as they should be laying more than a field goal on their home floor to the Denver Nuggets.
Denver came into Houston earlier this year and upset the Rockets, I think these players will be out for revenge here tonight. Not only that, but the Rockets need a win here to make up some ground on Denver in the Western Conference playoff race.
Denver is only 9-15 on the road this year as they have a significant home court advantage, but then struggle outside of Colorado. They are losing by 2.5 ppg, and this Rockets team is better than average. They have won at home by an average of 5.4 ppg this year while compiling a 14-7 record on their home floor. Lay the small number with confidence here tonight.
|01-23-13||Wright State v. Youngstown State -3||Top||61-68||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NO DOUBT BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -
Wright State is a good team but they should be getting more points in this situation. This team is coming off a tough stretch, they played Saturday against a good Valparaiso team and only lost by six, then came back on Monday and won at Detroit. However, this will be their third game in five days, which is a rare occurrence for college basketball's regular season. Youngstown State had several days to prepare so they should be more ready for this one.
People will look at Wright State's 14-5 record against Youngstown's 10-8 and cringe, but looking at the margin of victory you will see 5.4 ppg for Wright and 4.5 ppg for Youngstown, so these teams are closer than you think. Add in the rest factor and the home court advantage and this team should be laying six plus.
|01-23-13||Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan -8.5||74-61||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Central Michigan -
Northern Illinois has been awful on the road this year, going 1-8 but losing by more than 12 ppg. Central Michigan might not be a great team, but they are 5-1 at home and winning by more than 5 ppg.
I like this matchup for the Chippewas. They do a good job of getting to the line and then converting their free throws, while the Huskies foul too much and send their opponents to the charity stripe. Central Michigan has trouble defending the three point shot, but that shouldn't be a problem with Northern Illinois making only 27.$ of their long range attempts this year. On the other hand, Central Michigan likes to take three's and with Northern Illinois giving up 37.3% from behind the arc they should get a lot of open looks.
Northern Illinois is struggling lately, losing eight of their last nine and they are coming off a 37 point beating at home versus Western Michigan. CMU on the other hand should be high on confidence after beating Ball State by 14 on Saturday. They have covered nine of their last 11, and they cash again at the pay window for us here tonight.
|01-23-13||Pennsylvania +17.5 v. Temple||69-76||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Penn +
This is a classic look ahead spot for Temple here today. Saturday this team goes to Butler to take on the Bulldogs, so I don't think their full attention is going to be on the a Penn team who checks into this game with a 3-14 record. Penn might not be very good, but they had done a decent job of covering the spread. They played Butler to a 13 point game and Princeton to 12 with both of those games coming on the road.
Temple has been favored by double digits six times so far this year and has only covered the large spread one time. They aren't good at running away from teams, even those as bad as the Quakers. I'll take the large number here in what should not be a blowout game.
A bunch of situations back our play here today. The first says to fade double digit favorites who win more than 60% of their games against teams winning less than 20%. These teams have gone 264-173 (60.4%) ATS since 1997. On the other hand you want to take road, double digit underdogs after a loss by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a game in which both teams combined for 155 or more points. These teams are 118-67 (63.8%) the last five seasons.
|01-23-13||Penn State +25.5 v. Indiana||49-72||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* CBB NO BRAINER on Penn State +
Penn State is not a good team while Indiana is one of the best in the nation, but they don't have any business getting this many points. They only lost to the Badgers in Wisconsin by nine points, and lost by nine to Michigan State. They already faced the Hoosiers once this year and while they lost by 23, you can't expect Indiana to keep the pedal to the medal much more than that here today.
The Hoosiers have Michigan State on deck, so when this team gets a lead I expect them to make sure their guys get plenty of rest, and not show the Spartans anything new. This is a classic look passed situation, and the Nittany Lions take advantage with a cover.
A lot of systems back our play here tonight. You want to play against favorites of 10 points or more who score 78+ ppg against a team scoring less than 63 ppg during the second half of the season, when the team allowed 60 or less last time out. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5%) since 1997. You also want to play against home favorites of 20+ points after a win over a conference foe. These teams are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS the last five years.
You want to take underdogs of 20 or more points revenging a home loss against an opponent as this situation is 99-44 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.
|01-22-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers||109-97||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City +
This is a tough spot for the Clippers as they are playing their third game in four nights and coming off a back-to-back against Golden State. They have not covered in two straight games now, playing Washington close Saturday and losing by seven to the Warriors.
Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss, but they've had a day to recover from the hard fought game against the Nuggets. The Thunder have now scored 117 or more points in three straight games, so their offense should be fully clicking as they take on the Clippers. You should also take road teams that are outscoring opponents by more than six points per game after scoring 105 or more in three straight games. These teams are 116-71 (62%) since 1996.
The Thunder won earlier in the year at home by a score of 117-111 and that sets us up for a nice situation tonight. You want to play against any team with a line of less than three that is revenging a loss against an opponent off a home loss. This system is 217-142 (60.4%) over the last five seasons. You also want to go against home favorite revenging a home loss where an opponent scored 110+ points when playing on back-to-back days. This system is 54-24 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.
|01-22-13||Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -6.5||102-110||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Milwaukee Bucks -
Philadelphia is not a very good road team as they are just 6-14 away from home this year, scoring 90.1 ppg while allowing 95.9. They are playing a back-to-back in a tough spot, where they took on a very good San Antonio team and had the game in hand late, but fell apart to give the Spurs the victory.
Milwaukee on the other hand has been playing well lately, winning their last two games and covering both on the road. The Bucks have won five of seven with Boylan coaching them. The Bucks also went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won by nine points. This sets us up for a nice situation here tonight where you want to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are revering an upset loss off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 98-49 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.
|01-22-13||Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5||49-47||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin -
Wisconsin is going to come into this game determined to pick up the win after losing in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes on Saturday. They got off to a bad start and dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of, but Iowa is better than most people realize this year.
Michigan State on the other hand is off an emotional win against Ohio State and it's tough for teams to get up for back-to-back games against good teams like that. Couple that with the fact that the Spartans then head to Indiana next to face the Hoosiers and you can see why their attention might wander a little more than the Badgers.
The Badgers are 114-83 ATS as a home favorite and 58-38 ATS at home after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. The Badgers also get up for these big games, going 33-17 ATS at home against a team winning more than 80% of their games.
I like Wisconsin to win in a big way here tonight.
|01-21-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls||83-95||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Lakers are a good team to fade right now. They are back to full strength but this team just isn't a juggernaut like everyone thought they were going to be. LA finally got Gasol back on Thursday and lost to the Heat, then went up to Toronto and couldn't beat the Raptors. Now they travel down to face a Chicago team that has been playing well.
The Bulls have won three of four with their only loss being at home to Memphis on Saturday, but that was a tough spot off a one point win in Boston the night before. Chicago is only allowing 89.1 ppg at home this season while the Lakers are giving up 107 ppg on the road. Chicago has the ability to shut down the Lake Show, especially with their troubles getting in sync offensively. I think this one is a Bull blowout.
|01-21-13||Texas v. Oklahoma -7||67-73||Loss||-110||13 h 42 m||Show|
4* BIG 12 ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -7
Texas is not a very good team as evidenced by their 8-9 record and 1-7 mark away from Austin. The Longhorns are getting outscored by 8.5 ppg on the road and are 0-4 in the conference. Texas played Kansas tough at home on Saturday and will be in a little bit of a letdown spot here today as they ended up losing that game due to a poor second half.
Oklahoma should be a hungry for a win after losing at Kansas State. That loss was the Sooners first in the conference as they had previously blew out West Virginia on the road, then Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home. The Sooners lost twice to the Longhorns last year, so don't think they aren't join to come out blazing against their long-time rivals who are down this year. I see this one being a blowout.
|01-21-13||Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5||88-85||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER
Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94.
Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today.
Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years.
|01-21-13||Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||100-94||Loss||-110||4 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets -
So the Rockets have not looked good here lately. They have played six of their last seven games on the road, and the only home contest was against the LA Clippers. It's not really a surprise they have put together a seven game losing streak both straight up and against the spread with that kind schedule and I think it has opened up some value on Houston here in a good spot.
Charlotte is terrible. They are only 10-30 on the year and 5-16 at home. This team is getting outscored by an average of 8.3 ppg and they have lost six of their last seven. There isn't a better team for Houston to get back on track against than Charlotte, and they should do so in BLOWOUT fashion on Monday.
Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS against teams shooting less than 43% with a defense that allows 46% or more the last three years. The Bobcats are just 4-18 ATS against teams who shoot more than 83 times per game the last two seasons and 2-12 ATS at home against teams who attempt 18 or more 3's per game.
|01-20-13||Drake +10 v. Northern Iowa||55-85||Loss||-106||5 h 12 m||Show|
3* CBB HIGH ROLLER on Drake +10
There isn't much home court advantage for Northern Iowa here today as the Bulldogs have to make a short two hour drive across the Hawkeye State to take on the Panthers and I think the double digits is going to be too much to pass up in this rivalry game.
Northern Iowa is coming off a tough loss at Creighton and will be in a little bit of a letdown situation here against Drake. They beat the Bulldogs easily both times they played last year and that typically leads to both line inflation for us and overconfidence for the players.
Drake isn't a great team by any means, but they have been playing well in winning two straight. They beat a pretty good Evansville team last time out, the same team that beat UNI up in Cedar Falls two week s ago. Drake also won at Illinois State as an 11.5 point underdog last Saturday, so this team has to be pretty confident in what they are doing, but don't think they haven't circled this game as one they want in a bad way. Both due to the double digit losses last year and because of the in-state rivalry.
|01-20-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 204||103-108||Loss||-110||3 h 17 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER
The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home.
Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today.
This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks.
|01-19-13||Washington Wizards v. Los Angeles Clippers -13.5||87-94||Loss||-110||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -
I'm siding with the Clippers here today. Washington has been playing great lately winning four of their last five and covering five straight. Last night they fought hard to come back against the Denver Nuggets, but that actually works against them Saturday as they have to pack up and fly to LA after that tough win.
The Clippers on the other hand jus keep rolling. They are coming off another double digit win on Thursday, this time by 13 points in Minnesota. That made it three straight road wins and covers after the team lost at home to Orlando last Sunday. The Clippers are going to want to put on a good show for the home fans after that embarrassing loss last weekend.
LA is averaging a 12.2 margin of victory on their home floor, scoring 104.5 ppg and giving up just 92.3. Washington on the other hand is averaging a 11 point margin of loss on the road, scoring just 84.6 ppg while giving up 95.6 ppg. Since these two teams are at the extremes in talent level, I would think each succeeds those numbers by quite a few points here tonight.
Last year these two teams played twice in February and the Clippers won by 18 points at home and 26 points on the road. I don't see them having much trouble with Washington here tonight either.
|01-19-13||SIU Edwardsville +16 v. Murray State||61-70||Win||100||22 h 45 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on SIU Edwardsville +
The Cougars are a hot team right now that have won two straight games as an underdog. Murray State played well last time out, but had failed to cover the last three times they were favored by double digits.
These teams have played Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky this year. Murray State beat Austin Peay by three while they lost Eastern Kentucky by 12. Edwardsville on the other had beat Peay by 13 on the road and only lost to E. Kentucky by six on the road.
You want to play against home double digit favorites who average more than 74 ppg against teams scoring 63 or less ppg. This system has gone 76-40 ATS over the last five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset win when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. These teams are 165-105 ATS over the last five years.
|01-19-13||Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5||Top||97-93||Loss||-105||13 h 23 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER
Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc).
The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be.
The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons.
|01-19-13||Coll Of Charleston +10 v. Davidson||68-77||Win||101||20 h 13 m||Show|
3* on College of Charleston +
College of Charleston is getting some value here since they are off an upset loss as a favorite while Davidson is off a 32 point win over the Citadel, but the prior game Davidson had also lost the Georgia Southern on the road, except as a 13 point favorite and it was by 13 instead of only four.
Against common opponents both teams are 3-1, the Wildcats winning by 13 ppg while the Cougars are winning by 8 ppg. Davidson might be the better team, but this is too many points for them to be laying against a decent team who lost last time out probably due to looking ahead to this contest.
A great system supports our play today that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite playing on only a day's rest. These teams are 146-92 ATS since 1997.
|01-19-13||Ball State v. Central Michigan -5.5||57-71||Win||100||20 h 13 m||Show|
3* on Central Michigan -
The Chippewas got smoked last year in both games against Ball State, so I think this team is going to come ready to play on Saturday. Central Michigan does a good job of getting to the line, shooting seven more free throws per game at home than their opponents give up, while the Cardinals are allowing opponents to shoot three more free throws per game than their average.
Ball State is 1-8 ATS off a road loss the last two years and 40-61 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Central Michigan has been playing pretty solid this year, covering in four of their last five and eight of 10. they have played tough against some good teams and should take advantage of a soft opponent here today.
|01-19-13||Louisiana-Lafayette +17.5 v. Middle Tenn. St.||60-82||Loss||-106||20 h 44 m||Show|
3* on Louisiana-Lafayette +
I'm going to ride Louisiana-Lafayette this afternoon as they look to revenge an early season loss at home to Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders have struggled to put teams away lately. Before they covered last time out against Arkansas-Little Rock they had lost four in a row at the pay window. That was their first double digit win of 2013 and it was over the leader of the East division of the Sun Belt, so it was pretty big for them, putting them into a letdown spot for today.
A couple of systems help support our play today. Play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival when playing an opponent off a conference loss by double digits. This system is 72-36 ATS the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs with a losing record who are revering a home loss against an opponent. This situation is 480-346 ATS the last five years.
|01-19-13||South Dakota +11.5 v. Oakland||97-78||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
4* ODDS MAKERS ERROR on South Dakota +
I went against Oakland last time out when they played UMKC and I'm going to continue to do so until the odds makers stop overvaluing them. These two have six games against common opponents and both are 3-3, but Oakland is winning by 3.5 ppg compared to 2.5 ppg for South Dakota.
The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field while South Dakota is an above average shooting team. Both of these teams get to the free throw line, but Oakland fouls more than usual while the Coyotes rarely put the opposition on the line. This is a lot of points and I'll gladly take them today.
A nice system supports our play today that say to fade double digit favorites off a no-cover as a win as a favorite when that team has won between 40-50% of their games. This situation is 33-12 ATS since 1997. If the team they are playing has a losing record that number jumps to 25-8 ATS.
|01-19-13||Arkansas-Little Rock +8 v. Western Kentucky||59-54||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
3* on Arkansas Little-Rock +
Arkansas Little-Rock had been playing well until getting embarrassed last time out against Middle Tennessee State while Western Kentucky on the other hand was struggling, losing both straight up and against the spread in three straight games before blowing out Lafayette by 23 points. This has led to some value on the Trojans here today.
Arkansas LR already won earlier today at home as a two point underdog so they know they can pull off the upset again today. Western Kentucky is 5-0 against common opponents and wining by 11 ppg, but Ark-Little Rock is 4-2 themselves and winning by 7 ppg. The value here is with the underdog so take the points.
Arkansas Little-Rock is 16-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two years and 14-5 ATS against teams that allow 42% or less. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more the last three years and 11-2 ATS after scoring 60 or less points in their last game.
|01-19-13||St Bonaventure +12 v. Temple||81-78||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* on St. Bonaventure +
The Bonnies haven't played good lately, losing six straight games. The last time out they lost to Xavier at home by two as a 2.5 point favorite, but that doesn't look bad when you see Temple lost by five at Xavier a week ago. Against common opponents Temple is +0.5 ppg while the Bonnies are -4.5. Not great, but not good enough to justify this double digit spread.
Temple beat St. Bonaventure by six on the road last year, so you can bet the Bonnies will be out for revenge here today. The Owls are only shooting 40.6% and 30% from behind the 3-point line. You don't cover too many big spreads if you can't shoot at a high rate.
You want to play against double digit favorites off a road win by 3 points or less when they have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing one. This system is 62-31 over the last three seasons. You also want to take road double digit dogs off an upset loss against a conference rival against an opponent off a conference win. This spot is 75-40 ATS the last five years.
|01-18-13||Fairfield +6 v. Iona||73-84||Loss||-110||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Fairfield +
Fairfield has struggled in losing three games in a row, and that has created some value with them here tonight. They haven't lost any of those games by more than five points, so they are playing their opponents tough and doing so with a stifling defense that gives up just 61.6 ppg.
Iona on the other hand has won five in a row, but they haven't lived up to the expectations in covering only once in their last four games. These two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the 5.5 points is a little too much of a home court advantage. I'll take the underdog here tonight.
A couple of systems support our play here tonight that says to take teams who allow 63 or less PPG against teams allowing more than 74 after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 60-28 ATS the past five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset loss to a conference rival at home against an opponent off a home win. These teams are 84-50 ATS the last five years.
|01-18-13||Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||69-85||Loss||-110||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings +
This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They have played a couple of tough games in a row over the past week wight eh Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Spurs again. They beat San Antonio by three the first time around, but then lost the next three and all by more than 20 points. Sure, they were playing good teams but getting beat that badly shakes one's confidence. Even with a short break tonight, Memphis then has to play Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn in their next three games coming up, setting this team up for both a letdown and a look ahead.
The Kings might not be very good, but they have won two straight. Of course it was against Cleveland and Washington so it was to be expected. Sacramento has now lost six straight against the spread, so they haven't exactly been playing well either, but this is a young team that will be motivated by just winning the last two games.
Memphis isn't a team that blows out their opponents, winning by an average of less than five at home. The Kings have lost by less than 10 ppg on the road this year, so I see a lot of value in taking the points here tonight.
A couple of situations support our play here that say to fade home teams after scoring 85 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 163-103 (61.3%) since 1996. You also want to take teams winning less than 40% of their games after being beaten by 18+ points combined against the spread in their last three games when hey are double digit underdogs. These teams are 44-18 ATS the last five seasons.
|01-17-13||Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5||99-90||Loss||-102||15 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA MAIN EVENT on Lakers -
The LA Lakers are starting to look like themselves all of a sudden. Sure, their lsat two opponents were the Cavs and the Bucks, not exactly top tier teams. When a team beats a team they should you have to look at by how many and the Lakers won both in impressive fashion. It's no surprise that getting Dwight Howard back gave this team a boost, and now word is Pau Gasol is going to play tonight against the Heat. Since LA is just 5-8 without Gasol this year, I think he'll give them a real boost down low, especially since Miami lacks front court depth behind Chris Bosh.
Miami won in impressive fashion at Golden State last night, but the team has been struggling against top tier teams. They lost at Utah, at Portland, at Indiana, and at home against Chicago to start the 2013 year. Some would argue that the Lakers aren't a top tier team with a sub. 500 record, but they have top tier talent that will go all out on a Thursday night TNT game. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS after playing as a road favorite.
|01-17-13||Gonzaga v. Portland +16.5||71-49||Loss||-106||14 h 56 m||Show|
4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Portland +
I know a lot of people will see Gonzaga's 16-1 record playing a Portland team that is sub. 500 and scoff, but this is a great situation for Portland. First off, you know they are going to be up for this game since they are playing the Zags, one of the perennial league favorites. Plus, they actually played well against them last year, losing by only 12 points at home when Gonzaga was a 15-point favorite. They actually led at half by a score of 29-25.
However, don't think that will mean Gonzaga gets up for this game the Pilots. They are coming off a big win over St. Mary's last Thursday night and even though they had a long rest, I think that game will have taken a lot out of them. Plus, this team plays on Saturday at Butler in a game they have to be looking forward to.
Portland isn't a threat to win the West Coast, but they went on the road in all three games to open up conference play and did sneak out a victory over Loyola-Marymount as a 5.5 underdog, and were at least in the other two games. I think the win last time out boosted their confidence and puts them in a solid position to play the Zags tough tonight.
A solid system supports our play that says to play against double digit favorites after six or more straight wins when they are on 5 or 6 days rest. This system has gone 159-104 (60.5%) since 1997. Gonzaga is all 0-6 ATS on the road after three straight West Coast games the last two seasons and 17-32 ATS after scoring 80 or more in a win over a conference rival.
|01-17-13||Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke||57-73||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
3* on Georgia Tech +
Duke is coming off their first loss of the season, so the public will look at that and think they are motivated to win big in their next game. However, teams coming off of a loss to break a double digit win streak in BCS conferences are just 35-43 ATS the next time out. If they are favored that record drops to 27-36 ATS, and if they are favored by double digits it's 12-18 (40%).
Georgia Tech has gotten off to a rough start in ACC play, losing three in a row, including by 13 to Miami, 13 at NC State, and five at home to Virginia. The Yellow Jackets aren't a great team, but when you are getting double digits you don't have to be great to cover.
A couple of systems support our play that say to take double digit road underdogs after they were beaten by 30 ore more points against the spread the last three games, in January. These teams are 109-58 ATS (65.3%) since 1997.
|01-17-13||Oregon State +14.5 v. UCLA||64-74||Win||100||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* on Oregon State +
This is a look ahead spot for UCLA as they will face Oregon on Saturday and Arizona next Thursday, and those are the two teams the Bruins have to worry about in the Pac-12, not the 10-6 Beavers who have lost their first three conference games by double digits.
I like how these teams matchup too. Oregon State main problem in the Pac-12 has been rebounding, but the Bruins aren't necessarily a good rebounding team. Both teams rarely foul, but both do a good job of drawing fouls. Plus, both squads play pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor, so this game should be somewhat low scoring and not a shootout.
I think the odds makers have over-adjusted this line a bit, since the Bruins haven't beat anyone by more than 13 points in a month and have been playing close games even against teams they should have beat easily.
A solid system supporting our play says to play against double digit favorites after nine or more straight wins. This system is 196-119 (62.2%) over the last five years. You also want to play on road underdogs off two straight double digit home losses when playing a team with two straight conference wins. This situation is 41-12 (77.4%) since 1997.
|01-17-13||Utah State +5 v. New Mexico State||51-64||Loss||-110||13 h 55 m||Show|
4* HIGH ROLLER on Utah State +
I normally don't love teams that have played weak schedules, but Utah State has gone 14-1 on the year, so at least they have taken care of business. Plus, they are 5-0 in the conference and winning by 10 ppg, while New Mexico State is just 4-2 in conference play, having won by an average of only .5. Against common opponents both teams are 4-0, but Utah State's margin of victory is 11 to New Mexico State's 8.
Plus, you have to think Utah State wants some revenge for what happened to them last year. Both games in this matchup were double digit losses, the first was on the road by 20 points and the second was at home by 11.
Sure, Utah State has struggled at the pay window lately, winning their last three games at home easily but not covering double digit point spreads. I think this team was coasting until they faced New Mexico State in their first real WAC test, so I'll gladly take the points here tonight.
A solid system we like says to play against home favorites of 3.5-9.5 points that make four or less three point shots per game. This system has gone 96-52 (64.9%) over the last five years.
|01-17-13||Louisiana-Monroe +11 v. South Alabama||56-71||Loss||-106||12 h 56 m||Show|
3* on Louisiana-Monroe +
I think you are going to see the UL-Monroe Warhawks get some payback over South Alabama here tonight. Nobody likes this team because they have a terrible record and have averaged losing by double digits, but they have played a tough schedule against teams like Florida State and UAB. This team has been playing better lately and has covered six of their last seven games.
South Alabama looks better than they are and this line reflects too much of what the score was in the first game and not so much what really happened. The Jaguars won 77-70, but they shot 59.1% in that game and reached the foul line 16 more times than the Warhawks. The foul situation is going to even itself out a little more this time.
LA-Monroe had a blip around the turn of the year when they allowed North Texas, S. Alabama, and Florida Atlantic to shoot lights out against them but they have tightened up their defense the last two games, and played solid on that end of the floor prior to the UAB game, so it was an aberration.
South Alabama also pulled one out of a hat last time in shooting so well. They have shot 27.4%, 37%, 40.5%, and 28.1% in the four other games they have played since Christmas.
A solid system supports our play that says to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. an opponent. This system has gone 758-549 ATS over the last five seasons. We can tighten it up when that underdog is off two straight conference losses and the system is 248-162 ATS (60.5%).
|01-17-13||UMKC +13 v. Oakland||68-81||Push||0||11 h 54 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on UMKC + over Oakland
It's hard to believe that a 7-12 Oakland team is laying this many points, even if UMKC is only 5-13 on the year and 3-6 on the road. Last year they were favored by 14.5 in this spot and only managed to win by 13, and that team was a little better than this year's edition. Plus, Oakland is only 4-14 ATS as a home double digit favorite since 1997.
What is scaring bettors off is how Oakland went into Kansas City last February and put a 33 point beating down on the Kangaroos. However, I think that will serve as motivation here tonight. They shot 61.1% in that game and even shot 52% the previous game against Utah Valley State. This team has some confidence and should do well against an Oakland squad allowing opponents to hit 49.3% of their shots on the season.
UMKC had lost nine in a row before upsetting South Dakota as an 8-point underdog last time out, but that sets us up in a nice spot. A solid system says to take road underdogs who are off an upset win as an underdog when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. This situation has gone 162-103 (61.1%) over the last five years. However, If you tighten the system up to double digit road underdogs off an upset win as a road underdog this system goes to 56-25 (69.1%).
|01-16-13||Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers||Top||93-88||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st.
The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night.
So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that.
Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record.
|01-16-13||Seton Hall +9 v. Marquette||62-69||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
3* on Seton Hall +
Marquette has looked good to start Big East Play and that has created some value in this line here tonight. The Golden Eagles have won five straight with wins over UConn, Georgetown, and at Pitt in conference play. However, I think they will have their hands full tonight trying to beat the Pirates by double digits.
Seton Hall has struggled in losing their last three Big East games, but those came at Notre Dame, v. Louisville, and the disappointing loss at home to Providence. This team should be ready to bounce back from that upset loss with a strong showing against an over-rated Marquette squad.
The Pirates shoot 47.6% from the floor on the road and allow just 40.8% so they should be able to hang with a Marquette team that shoots 46.7% and allows 40.6%. Both teams do a good job of getting to the foul line, both are capable on the glass, and neither has a real advantage creating turnovers. These two teams are a lot closer in skill than the oddsmakers think, so I'll gladly take the big number.
A solid system backing our play says to play against teams off two straight conference wins against teams off consecutive double digit losses at home. This system is 52-22 (70.3%) since 1997.
|01-16-13||Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5||97-117||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Denver is coming off a tough divisional game last night in which they took the Portland Trailblazers to overtime before coming out on top. Now they have to take to the road to take on the best team in the West, and I think this number is a little short of what I expected since this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights.
Denver is hot right now winning six in a row, but the Nuggets are just 9-14 on the road this year, losing by 1.5 ppg. The Thunder on the other hand are 18-3 at home, winning by more than 11 ppg.
Oklahoma City has won four in a row, the last three of which came on the road. They have this game at home before kicking off a six game road trip so they know they need a good showing before the tough stretch ahead.
|01-16-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Boston Celtics -7||90-78||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
3* on Boston Celtics -
The Hornets have been an awful 6-13 on the road this year, losing by 4 ppg while Boston is 13-6 at home winning by 4.5 ppg. The public is jumping on this New Orleans team now that they have won five of their last six games both straight up and against the spread, but Boston is just as hot since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup, winning their last six straight up and five of those at the pay window.
New Orleans is coming off a nice win last night in Philadelphia, but this will be their third game in four nights. The Celtics on the other hand have only played once since last Friday, so the veterans have had plenty of time to get their legs back under them. These two teams played at the beginning of the season last year, and New Orleans won at home by 19. Don't think for a second this Celtic group doesn't remember that and they will be out to prove a point tonight.
|01-16-13||Georgia +13.5 v. Missouri||62-79||Loss||-106||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* on Georgia +
The Bulldogs have not looked good their last two times out and that has given us some value with them here tonight. Georgia has lost two straight against the spread after suffering a 33 point loss at Florida and a double digit loss at home as a 7.5 point favorite over Mississippi State. I expect them to rebound here tonight against a Missouri team coming off a disappointing loss of their own at Ole Miss in which they only managed to score 49 points.
This is a solid matchup for Georgia as both teams play well on the defensive side of the floor, so with a lower scoring game getting this many points is a gift. Georgia does a good job of getting to the line this year shooting three more free throws per game than their opponents normally allow. The Bulldogs have also been solid on the glass, which should negate the Tigers advantage this year with their offensive rebounding.
Georgia is 6-0 ATS on the road after an upset loss as a favorite the last three years while Missouri is 6-17 ATS after scoring 55 points or less since 1997.
|01-16-13||South Carolina +10 v. LSU||82-73||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* on South Carolina +
South Carolina got off to a rough start to the year, but had won five games in a row entering SEC play. Their first game at Mississippi State they only lost by two, covering the spread. They followed that up with an upset loss at home to Auburn due to the fact they allowed the Tigers to shoot 58.5%.
LSU hasn't been shooting well so I don't think they will be able to take advantage of the Gamecocks defensive struggles. They shot 37.3% v. Auburn and 32.3% at Florida.
LSU went on the road and pulled the upset win over the Gamecocks last year, so this South Carolina team is out for a sort of double revenge. They were favored in their loss to Auburn, and last year in this matchup. This team will come out motivated and should keep it within single digits.
|01-16-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -4||95-109||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
3* on Atlanta Hawks -
Atlanta was embarrassed in Chicago the other night, only putting up 58 points in the 39 point loss. Now Atlanta has dropped six of their last seven both straight up and at the pay window, and it has given us some value with this team tonight.
Brooklyn is coming off a tough divisional game against the Raptors last night so they are on short rest playing their third game in four nights. They have won nine of 10 since PJ took over the reigns, but that has just inflated their value here tonight. The Hawks are 12-6 at home while the Nets are 8-8 on the road. The odds makers are over-adjusting on this one so take advantage.
|01-16-13||Fordham +14 v. Charlotte U||68-74||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* on Fordham +
Fordham isn't a good team but they check into this game after a pair of covers. They beat Duquense and played a decent UMass team tough at home, covering both games. Charlotte doesn't force a lot of turnovers and the Rams do a good job on the offensive glass, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight.
Charlotte is also playing well, having beat three straight teams by eight or more points since their loss to Florida State back on 12/22. However, a large favorite who has covered two straight is a good fade situation. A solid system backs our play here that says to fade double digit favorites who have covered two straight when they have won 80% or more of their games on the year, facing a team with a losing record. This play has gone 76-39 (66.1%) over the last five seasons.
I'll take the double digits.
|01-16-13||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||107-105||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets.
The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday.
Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points.
Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north.
|01-16-13||Providence +7.5 v. Georgetown||65-74||Loss||-105||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* on Providence +
Providence has played a tough schedule to start the Big East season, having to go to Louisville and Seton Hall while hosting Syracuse and DePaul. It's no surprise they have won only one of those games, but it does raise an eyebrow the game came last time out against Seton Hall and not at home against DePaul. However, finally ending the five game losing streak and winning a conference game should give them some confidence tonight against the Hoyas.
Georgetown has a big win back in early December over Texas, but the Longhorns have disappointed this year. They did play tough at Marquette but got embarrassed by 28 at home against Pitt. They haven't played as tough of a schedule as the Friars, which is why their stats look a little better.
I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring as Georgetown allows just 55.4 ppg while Providence gives up 62.2. Neither team excels offensively, but the Friars do have a little more firepower on that end of the floor than the Hoyas do. With points at a premium tonight, I'll take a decent size underdog to win.
|01-15-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 212.5||88-104||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5
The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.
Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.
A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.
|01-15-13||Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||103-76||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out.
The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg.
Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight.
The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog.
|01-15-13||Notre Dame -6 v. St. Johns||63-67||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Notre Dame -
The Irish have to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders after losing at home to UConn on Saturday. The loss was only Notre Dame's second of the season so you can bet they didn't like how that game tasted. Plus, ND will be out for revenge against St. John's here tonight after dropping their last two in New York, including a 3-point defeat last year as 6.5 point favorites.
Notre Dame is solid on both end's of the floor. They are scoring 75.6 ppg against teams allowing 66.3 and giving up just 61.1 against teams who normally put up 68.4.
Both teams have played decent schedules, but Notre Dame has wins over BYU, Kentucky, and Purdue on their resume while nothing stands out to me for St. John's.
The Red Storm have lost two in a row at home, first to Rutgers as 3.5 point favorites and then Saturday Georgetown took it to them by 16 points. St. John's is 39-59 ATS at home after a loss since 1997 and 2-9 ATS after two straight games of scoring 65 points or less the last two years.
I'm going with the Irish tonight.
|01-14-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5||Top||118-124||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.
Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.
This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.
The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.
All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.
|01-14-13||Elon +1.5 v. Western Carolina||80-67||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Elon +1.5
Elon had been playing solid basketball to end the 2012 calendar year but have gotten off to a slow start in 2013, losing two straight. However, this is a team that played Duke tough for awhile and even beat South Carolina on the road by 12 points as a 7.5 point underdog.
The Catamounts have won three in a row which is important because it sets them up for a spot they have not done well in in the past. West Caroina is just 35-54 ATS when coming off a win against a conference rival and 14-29 ATS at home after a win since 1997.
This is a short trip for the Phoenix so I don't think there is much in the way of home court advantage for West Carolina tonight. Elon is the better team and should pull off the upset in what is an important game in Southern Conference action.
|01-13-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199.5||87-83||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West.
Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today.
Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough.
A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years.
|01-13-13||Arizona St +9.5 v. Oregon||65-68||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
4* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona State +
Oregon knocked off Arizona in what was a great game Thursday night and I think that has set them up for a bit of a letdown tonight. The Wildcat win is fresh in the public's mind so the odds makers had to adjust this line by a point or so to compensate, plus these players have to be feeling pretty a little over-confident after knocking off one of the last remaining unbeatens.
Arizona State on the other hand is a solid basketball team that will give the Ducks a run for their money. They have won six in a row and covered all but one of those games. The Sun Devils went up to Oregon State on Thursday and beat the Beavers as five point underdogs, and I think they will surprise Oregon tonight as well.
Last year Oregon won as an underdog at Arizona State by 9 points. Sun Devils are going to be out for a little payback here today.
|01-12-13||San Francisco +14 v. Saint Marys CA||Top||72-78||Win||100||25 h 22 m||Show|
5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU.
San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them.
St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight.
Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997.
|01-12-13||Murray State v. Austin Peay St +10.5||71-68||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
3* MONEY MAKER on Austin Peay +
There is no doubt who the better team here is as Murray State comes in at 11-4 and Austin Peay at 5-12, but there is plenty of value in the home dog on Saturday. Murray State is coming off a tough loss by 12 points at home to E Kentucky, a team they were favored by nine points over. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games as the Racers are consistently over-valued by odds makers.
Austin Peay had lost either in a row before Wednesday's win over Morehead State, but their previous three losses had been by a total of two points. They are playing competitive and should be able to hang with a Murray State team that has to be looking past a team they beat by double digits twice last year.
|01-12-13||Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||97-81||Loss||-105||12 h 55 m||Show|
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night.
Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home.
The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days.
|01-12-13||Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2||90-87||Loss||-107||11 h 23 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Both of these teams are off back-to-backs, but a couple of things point in the Pistons favor here today. The first is that they blew Milwaukee out 103-87 so they didn't have to bring the intensity late. Utah was leading or competitive for most of the game with the Hawks so they spent a little more energy in last night's game.
The other is that Detroit had four days off coming into the game and will be playing only their fourth game of 2013, so they have had plenty of rest. Utah will be playing their 7th game since the turn of the year and third in four nights.
The Jazz are a decent team but they are terrible on the road, going just 8-15 and being outscored by 5+ ppg. Hard to believe they are only getting tow points against a Detroit team that is beating opponents by 3.4 ppg at home and has now won seven of nine and give of their last six games.
The Pistons are 16-5 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their three point shot attempts. The Jazz are 22-34 ATS on the road and 8-22 ATS after two or more non-conference games the past three seasons.