4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal +1
This is a game Cal had circled entering the season as Washington won both of last year's meetings by 21 and 32 points respectively. The Golden Bears return 4 starters who remember those beatings well, and I expect them to do something about it tonight.

The total paints a picture of how odds makers expect a game to go. Tonight, the over-under line indicates they expect Cal's 20th-ranked defense, which is holding foes to 59.1 points per game, to have success in slowing down the Huskies.

We saw 163 and 186 total points scored in last year's meetings and yet we see a total of 144.5 for this game. This is significant because Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in a road game when the total is 140 to 144.5. It's winning these games by an average score of 74.2 to 66.8.

Washington isn't the same team it was last season. Cal will make that known here. Bet the Bears.

5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico -9
I believe 16th-ranked San Diego State is overrated, and this line certainly supports that claim. The Aztecs return just one starter from last year's team while the Lobos return 4. Those 4 starters remember last season's 2 losses to SDSU well, and those 2 defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight.

New Mexico has been a tremendous investment, going 11-3 ATS in all lined games this season and winning those games by an average of 17.4 points.

The fact New Mexico enters this contest off 3 consecutive wins of 10 points or more also bodes well for us considering it is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. It is winning by an average of 13.5 points in this situation.

The defensive end has been the biggest reason why the Lobos have ripped off 13 straight wins. They rank 15th in the nation with just 58.0 points allowed per game. I expect the New Mexico to really dig in defensively tonight on their way to a double-digit victory.

The Lobos are 10-0 ATS all-time under coach Alford after holding 4 straight opponents to 65 points or less. They are winning by an average of 16.3 points in this situation. Lay the number.

3* NBA Upset of the Night on Hornets +4.5
This is a letdown spot for Memphis following a blowout win over the Bulls. This is also a revenge spot for New Orleans, which lost by 9 to the Grizzlies Saturday.

The Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.

The Hornets have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 11 of their last 12 at home in this series. Hungry to end a 6-game home skid and to avenge Saturday's loss to the Grizzlies, look for New Orleans to pull off the upset this evening.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and with a day of rest on their side, expect the Nets to take care of business at home against a Golden State team that just played yesterday.

The Nets have won 11 of the last 13 at home in this series. In fact, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in New Jersey. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Warriors are a weak 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll lay the points.

5* ACC Game of the Week (ESPNU) on Maryland +12
This is a sandwich game for Florida State, which is coming off a 90-57 upset win over North Carolina and has a matchup at Duke Saturday. Still riding high following Saturday's win and looking ahead to this Saturday's test, don't expect the Seminoles to give Maryland the respect it deserves here.

Maryland has long dominated this series winning 21 of the last 26 meetings. The Terrapins are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

It is also worth noting that the Noles have been a terrible investment when laying points at home, going just 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite.

It's also worth noting that Maryland head man Mark Turgeon is 17-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more in all games he has coached. We'll take the points.

4* Big Ten *BEST BET* Purdue -10
Iowa has given Purdue all it has wanted and more the last two times these teams have faced off. Both of those meetings were in Iowa City. Rest assured, things will be different in West Lafayette.

The Boilermakers have won 4 in a row at home in the series and the last 3 home wins have come by 22, 23 and 23 points. While Iowa is improved, it certainly isn't immune to beatings. The Hawkeyes lost to Ohio State by 29 points and to Michigan State by 34 points before Saturday's win over Michigan.

The home team is on a 7-0 ATS run in this series and Purdue is 15-4 ATS in lined home games since the beginning of last season. Purdue is also 6-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, 10-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, 7-0 ATS in home games after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Iowa is just 1-9 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +12.5
Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight.

Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers.

The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points.

History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

4* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Kansas -6
Some teams don't do as well playing on Monday following a Saturday contest. Baylor, for one, is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Monday games while Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 Monday games

The fact Kansas is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS off a home win in which they didn't cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is also 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams holding their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season.

The fact Baylor mauled Oklahoma State last game isn't the best scenario considering it is 0-6 ATS following a cover as a double-digit favorite under coach Drew.

The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points.

Baylor is 0-9 all-time in Lawrence and the last 7 losses have come by an average of 17.6 points. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight.

This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road.

The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston.

4* NCAAB Blowout on Iona -11.5
Motivated by an upset loss to Manhattan, expect Iona to take out its frustration all over Loyola Maryland this afternoon.

Iona has had an extra day to prepare for this contest and should have much fresher legs than a Loyola squad that used a lot of energy to erase a 15-point second-half deficit in Friday's upset of Fairfield.

Iona is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, currently ranking 2nd in the nation at 85.1 ppg. The Gaels haven't just scorched weak foes either. They put up 90 points on a Purdue team that is normally very sound defensively. In fact, the Boilermakers are only allowing 61.6 ppg on the season.

Iona has dominated this series winning 24 of the last 31 meetings, including 13 of 15 at home during this span. Those 13 wins have come by 18, 8, 24,18, 9, 17, 12, 14, 12, 18, 21, 12 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 14.8 points. The Gaels won last year's home meeting by 18 points, and I expect another decisive victory today.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8
Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers.

Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight.

Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points.

5* Summit League Game of the Year on IUPU-Indianapolis +8
This is a tough spot for Oral Roberts playing its second road games in 3 days, especially since it is coming off a 1-point double OT win over W. Illinois. I expect the Golden Eagles to be a little hungover from that game. They have typically shown the effects of hotly contest wins, going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win by 6 points or less.

IUPUI will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats. Plus, the Jags have made a habit of rising to the occasion against top foes. Consider that IUPUI is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It's defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 72.7.

IUPUI has either won or lost by 6 points or less in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

5* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Fairfield -4.5
The Stags are better than their 8-8 record might lead you to believe. They have challenged themselves with the schedule, taking on many quality opponents and playing only 4 home games to this point. Since losing to Providence in their home opener, the Stags have won 3 straight on their home floor by an average of 15.0 points.

Home court has certainly treated Fairfield well in this series. It has won 11 of its last 15 at home against the Greyhounds by an average score of 72-64. The Stags have won their last 3 at home in this series by 14, 5 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 9.7 points.

The Stags are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Fairfield in this point-spread range tonight.

3* NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Celtics +2
With or without Derrick Rose, who is currently listed as doubtful with a toe injury, the Bulls will have a tough time coming away with a win tonight in Boston, where they have lost 10 of their last 12.

Off back-to-back losses, at home no less, the Celtics will be out to show they are still an elite team by defeating a team tied for the best record in the NBA.

The Celtics have been an exceptional home dog, going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the role. Plus, they are an awesome 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since the beginning of last season. They are winning by an average of 12.0 points in this situation. Bet Boston.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +5.5
Andrea Bargnani is likely out tonight, but I still really like Toronto catching 5.5 points. Motivated by back-to-back losses and a 5-point loss to the Pacers on Dec. 28, and knowing they'll need to step up without their leading scorer, I expect an inspired effort from the Raptors here.

Indiana has been inconsistent on the road this season, and likely won't give Toronto its full attention here, especially with a big matchup against Boston scheduled for tomorrow night.

Home court has meant everything in this series. In fact, the home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We also find the Pacers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Toronto. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Toronto.

3* Under the Radar Underdog on Northern Arizona +7.5
With Northern Arizona failing to cover the spread in three straight games and Montana having covered the number in each of its last 4 lined games, the value clearly lies with the Lumberjacks.

Consider that plays on any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 103-60 ATS the last 5 seasons.

This is also a bad situational spot for Montana, which will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with Big Sky leader Weber State.

The Grizzlies are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Lumberjacks. We'll take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Grizzlies -4.5
Motivated by 3 straight losses and further fueled by a 120-99 beating the last time it saw the Knicks, expect Memphis to play inspired basketball tonight.

Memphis is 15-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when checking into a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. It is also 12-0 ATS since the start of last season when checking in off 3 losses in its last 4 games. It has won by an average score of 99 to 90.7 in this situation.

The Grizzlies are also an impressive 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Knicks' road wins have come against some of the weakest teams in the league (Kings, Pistons, Wizards). They were blown out at Golden State and the LA Lakers, and I can't see them keeping this one within the number against a young, athletic and hungry Grizzlies squad.

5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Austin Peay -5.5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 2-point loss at E. Kentucky on Dec. 29, expect Austin Peay to roll at home tonight.

The Governors have had no problem in this series at home, where they've won 15 of the last 16 and 7 in a row by an average of 13.1 points.

The road has given the Colonels problems all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away from home with those 5 losses coming by an average of 13.8 points.

Austin Peay has underachieved to this point, but we should see one of its best performances of the season tonight in what is an extremely motivated spot.

4* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Nuggets -12.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 13-point home loss to New Orleans last game, expect the Nuggets to roll tonight.

The Nuggets have been one of the best investments in the NBA at 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games. They are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite, 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference. In addition, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. That's a 12-1 ATS angle I'll get behind any day of the week.

The Nets lost in Orlando by 16, in Cleveland by 16 and in Boston by 19. Denver plays great basketball at home, and I expect it to cover the number in this highly motivated spot.

5* C-USA Game of the Year on Tulsa -6
Motivated by consecutive defeats that came by a combined 3 points, expect Tulsa to bust out of its shell in a big way at home tonight.

The home team has had the edge in this series lately, going 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4. Also, UTEP is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 at Tulsa. The Miners lost 4 of those 5 straight up by 1, 11, 23 and 7 points. Looking back further, Tulsa has won 10 of its last 13 at home in the series by an average score of 74 to 63.


Under coach Wojcik, Tulsa has been a great investment in this point spread range. In fact, it is 13-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points during his watch, winning these games by an average of 8.3 points. Take Tulsa.

3* Big East Blowout on Marquette -13.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road to Georgetown and Syracuse, expect Marquette to take out its frustrations on an inferior St. John's team at home tonight.

The Golden Eagles are 7-1 at home on the season where they have won by an average of 19.6 points. They have the type of explosiveness to really bury the Johnnies in this motivated spot. Marquette blew a 17-point lead against Georgetown and came back from 18 down to pull within two late against Syracuse. The Golden Eagles know they need to put together two halves in this one, and I fully expect them to do so.

As if its two most recent losses aren't enough motivation, Marquette will also be fueled by a 12-point home loss the last time it faced St. John's. The Golden Eagles had won eight in a row against the Red Storm prior to that defeat.

The Red Storm are coming off a big upset win at Cincinnati but are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. We'll lay the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on South Carolina +4
The time to fade Vanderbilt is now. The fact the Commodores enter this contest riding high off a 30-point win over Auburn bodes extremely well for us. Consider that Vandy is just 14-34 ATS in its last 48 games following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The Dores have lost by an average of 3.8 points in these games.

South Carolina has won 2 of the last 3 in this series, including an 8-point home win last season. It is worth noting that Vanderbilt was a 5.5-point favorite in that game.

The Gamecocks are experienced (return 4 starters) and battle tested (already played N. Carolina, Ohio St., Kentucky). They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lines games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +7
Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night.

The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game.

The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight.

3* Fool's Gold Favorite on Pistons +7
The reigning NBA champs look to be fool's gold laying this many points on the road, where they are 0-3 this season. The Pistons are struggling but will be extremely motivated following last night's embarrassing 92-68 loss to the Bulls.

While the Mavs are clearly the more talented side, I don't believe this is the right time to take the plunge with them. Jason Kidd is out with a back injury and last year's backup point guard J.J. Barea is now in Minnesota. No one currently on the roster runs the offense as smoothly as those two. Plus, Dirk Nowitzki is yet to find his game. He's averaging just 12.0 points and shooting 30.8 percent over his last three games.

The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Pistons have either won or lost by 5 points or less in each of the last 5 matchups with the Mavs. We'll fade Dallas.

4* Monday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Idaho State +16.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by a 24-point loss to Wyoming the last time these schools met, expect Idaho State to take the floor with a purpose tonight.

The fact the Bengals were held to 44 points in a 24-point loss to Montana last time out actually bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 3.7 points in this situation.

In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have gone under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% of their games or fewer and are playing a team with a winning record, are 37-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bengals.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 35-point loss in Philly last game, look for the Raptors to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned.

The Raptors have won 13 of the last 14 in this series, including 7 in a row at home by an average of 10.9 points. The Timberwolves are 2-12 ATS in those 14 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

In addition, the Timberwolves are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll side with the Raptors tonight.

3* ESPN2 Big Monday SMASH on UConn -5.5
West Virginia is 0-8 all-time at Connecticut, losing by an average of 15.0 points. Plus, the Huskies, who will be motivated by back-to-back upset defeats on the road, are 9-0 at home this season where they are winning by 16.4 points.

The fact WVU enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins actually bodes well for us. The Mountaineers are just 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average of 7.8 points. We'll lay the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks +10.5
The Bucks get the call as a double-digit dog because they are good enough defensively to keep this one close.

The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Central division.

The Clippers are improved with Chris Paul, but I'm not sold on them yet. They've won 2 straight thanks to some good shooting, but the shots won't fall as easily against a Milwaukee team ranked 3rd in field goal percentage defense (41.2%) and 3rd in 3-point field goal percentage defense (26.9%). Take the points.

3* Saturday Night NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay +6.5
Now is the time to fade the undefeated Murray State Racers. Austin Peay has had an entire week to focus on this game. It will be fresh and it will be hungry to hand the Racers their first defeat.

The Governors are a better team than their record might lead you to believe. They upset the Racers on the road last year and have won 9 of the last 13 at home in the series.

The Racers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 in the series and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Austin Peay. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Winning on the road isn't easy, especially with a big target on your back and in an environment where you haven't had much success. Look for Austin Peay to give Murray State all it wants and more tonight.

5* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Suns +2.5
This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers.

The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix.

There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix.

3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5
Prior to winning 3 in a row at home, the Nuggets dropped back-to-back games on the road. They aren't the same team away from home, and that simple fact gives the Hornets a good opportunity to get the "W" tonight.

New Orleans will be lacking no motivation following 4 straight defeats. It is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 4th with 91.0 ppg allowed, and I believe it will really tighten the screws in hopes of ending its skid.

While laying the points with Denver at home has been lucrative, it has not been wise to lay the number with the Nuggets on the road, especially a small number. The Nuggets are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 matchups. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Blazers -3.5
The Rose Garden has been LA's kryptonite for years. The Lakers are just 6-23 in their last 29 in Portland and 2-10 in their last 12. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, and I fully expect their road struggles to continue in a place where they have had virtually no success.

Going back to last season, the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. They have also been a poor underdog investment at 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 NBA on TNT Thursday games.

The Lakers are just 10-26 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall in this series and 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Portland. We'll lay the points.

5* NCAAB Bailout Blowout on Cal Santa Barbara -9.5
UCSB is much better than its 6-5 record indicates. It has taken on a tough non-conference schedule that will benefit it in Big West play.

The Gauchos have been a phenomenal wager in conference action ate 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big West. The Titans, meanwhile, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. conference foes.

Fullerton hasn't been on the road in a month, which doesn't bode well for it this evening. Consider that the Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following 3 or more consecutive wins.

UCSB won by 15 in last season's home meeting, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB Underdog Game of the Week on Southern Utah +7.5
Motivated by a blowout loss to IUPU-Ft. Wayne last game, and further fueled by a 5-game losing streak in this series, expect Southern Utah to give South Dakota State all it wants and more this evening.

The Jackrabbits haven't played a road game since Dec. 18 and now they're up against a hungry S. Utah squad that is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Summit league and 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 home games.

Because of SDSU's success in this matchup, it will be much more concerned with Saturday's game at Oral Roberts. With the Jackrabbits looking ahead, and the Thunderbirds out for revenge, this is a good spot to grab the points with the home team.

3* NBA SMASH on Pistons +6.5
I believe it is asking too much of the Bulls to cover this number on the road after spending a lot of energy to erase a 19-point deficit to beat Atlanta 76-74 last night. Chicago won the game on Derrick Rose's layup with 3.7 seconds left. Such an emotionally and physically draining win sets the Bulls up for a letdown this evening. Plus, Detroit likely isn't going to get Chicago's full attention, considering the Bulls have won 11 in a row in this series.

While the Bulls have certainly had the upperhand in this series of late, it shouldn't go unmentioned that they have failed to win by more than 5 points in their last 2 in Detroit.

The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Detroit.

5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Florida State -11.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and last year's upset loss at Auburn, expect Florida State to take care of business in a big way this evening.

Some might find it interesting that FSU is laying double digits with 2 less wins than Auburn. There is a good reason for this. The Seminoles are a better team than their record shows as they have taken on the likes of Harvard, UConn, Michigan State and Florida. The Tigers aren't as battle-tested. Seton Hall and Long Beach State are really the only two quality teams Auburn has faced and it was crushed by 20-plus in both of those contests.

Auburn is just 1-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season with these 3 defeats coming by an average of 16.7 points. FSU, meanwhile, is 7-1 SU (4-2 ATS) at home where it has won by an average of 17.9 points. Lay the points.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back blowout losses in which they failed to beat the spread, expect the Bobcats to give the Cavs all they want and more tonight.

Cleveland is 2-2 but has played Toronto, Detroit, Indiana and New Jersey and has earned its wins against the Pistons and Nets. None of these teams are considered among the league's elite. The Bobcats, meanwhile, have played Miami twice and Orlando in their last 3 games. They played Miami to a 1-point game last Wednesday, showing they are capable of playing with arguably the best team in the NBA.

Charlotte is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Wisconsin -5.5
Motivated by Saturday's upset loss to Iowa, expect the Badgers to bounce back strong tonight.

Wisconsin is 78-7 at home in conference play under coach Ryan. It is also 13-6 in all games against Michigan State under Ryan and has won 8 in a row over the Spartans at the Kohl Center with six of those wins coming by double digits.

Wisconsin is 23-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem under Ryan, including 6-0 ATS in this situation since the start of the 2009 season with an average winning margin of 11.7 points.

The Badgers are also 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Winning Pct. above 80%) over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points/game over the last 3 seasons. Wisconsin has won these games by an average of 9.8 points. Bet the Badgers.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +4.5
This is a tough spot for the Nuggets who are up against a fresh Milwaukee team following a taxing home-and-home with the Lakers. This is just Milwaukee's 4th game of the season and it's had 2 full days to rest up and prepare for this contest. The Nuggets, meanwhile, will be playing their sixth game of the season and third in 3 days.

Milwaukee has been a good defensive team since Skiles took over, and so far it has been able to generate more offense this season. Going along with this, we find that plays on any good defensive team (allowing 88-92 ppg) that is matched up against an average defensive team (allowing 92-98 ppg) after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half are 27-4 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The fact Denver has struggled on the boards early on plays in our favor as well. Consider that Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 5 or more per game under Skiles. The Bucks have defeated these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Bet the Bucks.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors +11.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, look for the Raptors to give Orlando a game tonight.

Despite facing lines of +7.5, +14.5, +12.5 and +10, the Raptors have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, and 2 of those wins came in Orlando.

The Magic, who are coming off a blowout win at Charlotte, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also significant that the Bobcats are a divisional foe because Orlando is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win against a division rival. The Magic have actually lost in this situation by an average score of 95.8 to 92.5.

The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, and we'll grab them on the road here.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +2.5
Because of the uptempo style Indiana likes to play, it has been a poor investment when playing on consecutive nights. It will really struggle to find its legs in this one after getting pushed to OT last night.

The Pacers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on back-to-back days,losing these games by an average score of 101.2 to 93.7. They are also 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, losing these contests by an average score of 103.5 to 90.7.

The Pistons want their first win of the season and would love to get it against an Indiana team that defeated them Monday. That games was at Indiana, and I'm expecting a different story in Detroit, where the Pistons have won the last 2 in the series by 12 and 6 points respectively.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Nebraska +7.5
This is a sandwich game for Michigan State, which is coming off its biggest win of the season (over previously undefeated Indiana) and has Wisconsin on the road next. Nebraska, which was embarrassed by Wisconsin in its last game, won't be lacking motivation here.

We cashed in with Michigan State as a favorite Wednesday, but they were clearly showing the value at home against an Indiana team the public had fallen in love with. With that said, fading Michigan State when it is laying points has been the play more times than not in recent years. In fact, the Spartans are just 22-36 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite.

Sparty is almost always overvalued on Saturday when we see the largest volume of college hoops betting. As a result, it is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 Saturday games. Take Nebraska and the points.

3* NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Nets +12.5
Atlanta, which has won its first two games handily and defeated the Nets by 36 Tuesday, won't give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. You can bet New Jersey, which has been crushed in its last 2 games, will give everything it has to make sure it isn't embarrassed by the Hawks again.

This isn't a good spot for the Hawks, who are 0-12 ATS under in home games after playing a game as a home favorite under coach Drew. The Hawks have lost these 12 games by an average of 9.3 points.

The Nets aren't happy with the way they've played in their last 2 games. Rest assured, those poor performances will be all the motivation they need to keep this one within the number tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +3
Off back-to-back blowout wins at home, expect the Spurs to come up short in their first road game of the season. This old Spurs team, which is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, won't have enough legs to get it done against a younger Houston squad that is playing on 2 day's rest. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.

It also bodes well for us that Houston enters this contest off a loss against the spread. That's because the Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS defeat. It is also worth noting that the underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 in this series.

The Spurs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. divisional foes and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. We'll take the Rockets.

3* NCAAB Line Mistake on Akron +1
Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. This VCU team is not the same team that made a run to the Final Four last season. Only 2 starters return from that squad. Akron is one of the best teams in the MAC and should definitely be the side laying points.

Akron is 6-0 at home this season and has won 14 in a row at home dating back to last season. From the perspective of the point-spread, the Zips are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

This is Akron's last home game before a stretch of 3 in a row on the road so I expect the Zips to be ready to take care of business.

3* Western Conference *BEST BET* on Jazz +12
The Jazz are being undervalued here because they are coming off a 25-point loss and are matched up against an opponent checking in off a 22-point win. Utah, which was held to 32.2% shooting by a motivated Lakers squad last night, should fare better here against a Denver team not known for its defense.

This is a solid spot to back the Jazz considering they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

Utah has won 2 of the last 3 in this series with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. Take the Jazz.

3* NBA Eastern Conference *BEST BET* on Wizards +9.5
The Hawks are being overvalued here because they defeated a New Jersey team by 36 points that the Wizards lost to by 6. Keep in mind that Washington blew a 21-point lead in that loss. That defeat has no doubt left a sour taste in its mouth which should fuel a strong effort this evening.

Taking the Wizards following an ATS loss has been a good move as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Also, Washington has either won or played the Hawks to within 7 points or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points tonight.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Michigan State -5.5
Indiana has dropped 16 in a row in East Lansing, and will have a difficult time ending this skid without starting guard Verdell Jones III, who is expected to miss with a hip injury.

Odds makers clearly want the money coming in on the undefeated Hoosiers with this line, but we won't oblige them. Consider that plays against an underdog that has successfully covered the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, are 29-8 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 8.6 points. It's also worth noting that this situation is 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big Ten. The home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Michigan St. Take Sparty.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers -7.5
Expect a letdown from the Kings as they head to Portland following a big win over the Lakers. Portland has won nine of 10 meetings with Sacramento since the start of the 2008-09 season, and I expect its dominance over the Kings to continue.

The Kings are a lousy 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest while the Trail Blazers are an impressive 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Blazers are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the number.

3* NCAAB Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Pitt -1
I know Notre Dame's home court has provided one of the best advantages in the country, but with Tim Abromaitis out for season, Pitt is definitely the better team. Motivated by a bad loss to Wagner last game, expect the Panthers to prove it tonight.

Notre Dame has been overvalued all season and is 0-6-1 ATS in lined games as a result. In 3 contests against ranked foes (Mizzou, Gonzaga, Indiana), the Irish have been outscored by average of 20.0 points.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.

The Fighting Irish are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games, 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Pound Pitt.

3* NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors +6.5
Motivated by last night's second-half collapse, I expect the Warriors to give the Bulls all they can handle tonight. Chicago used a lot of energy in coming back from 11 down with under 4 minutes remaining to defeat the Lakers 88-87 last night. That big win sets the Bulls up for a letdown here.

The Bulls have had trouble at Golden State, where they have lost 2 straight and 10 of their last 14. The Bulls lost by 17 points at Golden State in 2010 and by 11 points there last season. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Golden State.

The Warriors are 36-14-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the Warriors.

3* NBA SMASH on T-Wolves +5.5
Playing in Minnesota has been no picnic for Oklahoma City, and it gets no easier for the Thunder tonight.

3 of the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota have been decided by 2 or fewer points. The Wolves have been able to take the Thunder down to the wire at home in recent years despite inferior guard play. Guard play should no longer be an issue for the T-Wolves with Ricky Rubio set to make his much-anticipated debut and J.J. Barea coming over from NBA champion Dallas.

Playing on the road without a day of rest is never an easy task. Plus, the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take the T-Wolves.

3* NBA Christmas Gift on Warriors +6
Even if Stephen Curry isn't able to go, I still think the Warriors are showing excellent value catching this many points at home.

Chris Paul will make the Clippers a better team by season's end, but it's going to take time for him to build chemistry with his new set of teammates. The Warriors will be a more cohesive unit Sunday night, and that gives them an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Warriors are 36-13-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Warriors have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in those 7 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Golden State. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on George Mason -6.5
George Mason fits into a very profitable situation this evening. Consider that plays on a favorite after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive lined games, provided it is matched up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 7.4 points and have won by an average of 11.8.

The fact George Mason enters off an upset loss actually bodes well for us. Consider that the Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat.

George Mason has been a terrific investment at home recently, going 13-5 ATS in its last 18 lined home games and winning these contests by an average of 13.9 points. It is even 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games when playing with one or less days' rest. It has won these contests by an average of 14.1 points. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cal Santa Barbara +11.5
UC Santa Barbara is a better team than its 5-4 record leads you to believe. BYU, meanwhile, isn't as good as its 9-3 mark indicates. The Cougars have been getting by without Jimmer Fredette, but they'll wish they had him on the floor tonight. That's because Santa Barbara's Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are better players than anyone BYU has.

Prior to getting blown out by 20 at Cal, UCSB's only defeats were overtime losses to SDSU and UNLV and a 7-point loss to Washington. Those are 3 quality squads. The Gauchos simply didn't play well against Cal and took it on the chin, but that will motivate them here. Consider that UCSB is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It has won by an average score of 67.5 to 62.5 in this spot. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after being held to 55 points or less, winning by an average score of 66.6 to 57.7 in this situation.

BYU's 15-point win and cover over Buffalo also plays a part in this inflated line, but keep in mind the Cougars needed 13 3-point makes to get the job done. Teams don't go off like that from deep very often, which is backed up by the fact BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after a game where it made 13 or more 3-point shots. Take the points as UCSB gives the Cougars all they want and more.

3* NCAAB SMASH on UT Arlington +6
Arlington isn't quite getting the respect it deserves from odds makers in tonight's neutral floor battle. This experienced team, which returns 4 starters, played 6th-ranked Baylor to a 10-point game on the road and did so while only shooting 35.4% from the floor.

Having played teams like Baylor and Texas, the Mavericks won't be intimidated in the least this evening.

Kent State has been overvalued all season. It has been favored in each of its last 7 games but has covered the spread just twice in those contests. The Golden Flashes aren't a high-scoring team. They only average 68.0 ppg. With this in mind, I like the high-scoring Mavs, who average 77.3 ppg, to give Kent State a game.

Plays against neutral court teams (Kent State in this case) that have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, are 39-13 ATS since 1997. Teams in this situation are only winning by an average of 3.1 points.

In addition, the Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Take the points.

3* NCAAB National TV SMASH on Bucknell +19.5
Syracuse is being overvalued the way one would expect a No. 1 ranked team to be, and Bucknell has the talent and experience to hang around.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 9 or more consecutive wins, on Tuesday nights, are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 17.1 points but have won by just 11.3 points on average.

The Orange are 93-114 ATS all-time as a home favorite under coach Boeheim and 18-30 ATS all-time in home games after 6 or more consecutive wins under Boeheim. The value clearly lies with Bucknell this evening.

5* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Towson +13
A 10-day layoff has slowed Manhattan's momentum, giving a hungry Towson team an opportunity to pick up its first win of the season tonight. Manhattan is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 7 or more days' rest. Towson State played a game last week so it won't be showing as much rust. It is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest.

The Jaspers have been a poor investment when laying points, going 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Also, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are an impressive 90-47 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 13.7 points on average but have lost by just 11.7 points on average.

This is a good spot for the Tigers. Look for them to keep this one close.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Davidson +13.5
This young Kansas team is getting a little too much respect here against an experienced Davidson squad because of its win over No. 2 Ohio State, which was playing without Jared Sullinger. The Jayhawks won't have the same home-court advantage with this game being playing in Kansas City, and Davidson will be hungry as it checks in off back-to-back defeats.

The Jayhawks and Wildcats have played one like opponent - Duke. Kansas lost to Duke by 7 on a neutral floor. Davidson lost to the Blue Devils by 13 in a true road game. This shows us Davidson is capable of playing with Kansas this evening.

Davidson is a team that does the little things well. One of those things is free throw shooting. The Wildcats average 24 free throw attempts per game and make 19 of those for an 80.4% average. This is significant because Self's Kansas teams are 0-6 ATS all-time when playing away from Lawrence against excellent free throw shooting teams that make them at a rate of 77% or better. Kansas has only defeated these foes by an average of 2.0 points.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12. Take Davidson.

3* Saturday NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Notre Dame +9
This is a letdown spot for Indiana following such a big win over Kentucky. Odds makers have overreacted to that win with this line, and I believe we can take advantage in this neutral court battle.

Neutral floors have not treated the Hoosiers well as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

It's hard not to like the Irish catching this many points as they are 61-45 ATS as an underdog under coach Brey. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series.

The fact Indiana is 5-0 ATS in all lined games this season actually bodes well for us considering it is just 4-12 ATS under coach Crean after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

Indiana allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.6% from the floor but was fortunate enough to shoot 60% from 3-point range and have Kentucky turn it over 18 times. The Hoosiers likely won't be able to get the Irish to cough it up near that many times. Notre Dame has had 13 or fewer turnovers in 10 of 11 games this season and 10 or less in 7 of its last 9 contests.

Kentucky only made 2 of 7 3-point shots against Indiana. We can expect the Irish to be good from distance a lot more than that as they average 7 3-point makes per game. We'll take the points as Notre Dame takes care of the ball and hits enough 3's to keep this one close.

5* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cal Santa Barbara +8
Washington isn't the same team it was last season when it advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. It lost three seniors from that team that accounted for nearly 50 points per game. As if those losses aren't enough of a blow, the Huskies will be without starting center Aziz N'Diaye this evening. N'Diaye, who sprained his knee last game, leads the team with 8.8 boards per contest and also chips in 7.1 points.

UC Santa Barbara is an experienced team that made a trip to the Big Dance last year as well. It returns its key nucleus of Orlando Johnson, James Nunnally and Jaime Serna, who are all averaging in double figures in scoring this season.

The Huskies haven't been a good investment at home, where they are typically overvalued, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on George Washington -6.5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, expect GW to take out its frustrations on a Bradley team that is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season. The Braves lost by 17 at Wyoming in their only true road game, and I see another double-digit defeat coming for them here. The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

The Colonials were crushed by 35 at Syracuse Saturday, a butt-kicking that can't be sitting well. Fortunately for us, taking GW following such a lopsided loss has been a money investment. Consider the Colonials are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 20 points.

GW gets after it on defense. It has held its opponents to 33.8% shooting on the year. That doesn't bode well for Bradley, who is 2-14 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their foes to 42% shooting or worse since the beginning of last season. Bradley has lost these games by an average of 10.9 points. Take GW.

4* NCAAB *SUPER SYSTEM SMOKER* on N. Illinois +12
Northern Illinois fits into a very profitable system tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are 90-46 (66.2%) ATS since 1997.

It is also worth noting that the Blue Demons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams.

As a 9.5-point dog last year, NIU played DePaul to a 2-point game on the road for an easy cover. Playing at home and looking to find the win column for the first time this season, expect the Huskies to give the Blue Demons a game again this year.

4* National TV SMASH (ESPN2) on Tennessee +3.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and last year's loss to the Cougars, expect Tennessee to take care of business tonight.

Tennessee is 1-3 when playing away from home this season but 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, while Austin Peay shot the lights out last game (59.1%) to hand the Vols a loss, their other losses have come to quality foes. The Vols especially showed well in games against Duke, Memphis and Pittsburgh. College of Charleston is yet to play a team of the caliber of those three, and it is hasn't even played a team of the caliber of Tennessee (in my opinion).

The Volunteers are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for this hungry Tennessee team to pull off the minor upset tonight.

5* 'Never Lost' NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Rider +5.5
This is Rider's last home game before playing 4 in a row on the road, and I expect it to make the most of it.

The fact Rider was kicked by Florida - one of the top teams in the country - last game actually bodes well for us here. Consider that Rider is 6-0 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since the beginning of the 2009 season. It is winning by an average score of 75.8 to 71.2 in this situation.

It is also worth noting Rider is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Dempsey as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Broncs aren't just covering the spread in these games, they're winning them outright by an average of 4.7 points.

Princeton has played 4 true road games this season and has been an underdog of at least 5.5 points in all of them. Now, it's laying 5.5 on the road. That's a big jump, one I don't believe it will be able to cover against a motivated Rider squad that's better than it's showed so far.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Central Michigan +16.5
I believe the Golden Gophers are getting a little too much respect from odds makers here. We're talking about a team that is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more.

Minnesota is only winning by an average of 15.1 at home this season. It has won by 17 points or more just twice on the season. The Golden Gophers don't bury many teams because they average just 4 3-point makes per game and shoot under 70 percent from the foul line.

The Gophers played well in a 22-point win over St. Peter's last game. They were especially good defensively in the first half, holding St. Pete's to just 23 points. This actually bodes well for us tonight considering Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in home games since the beginning of last season after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. The Gophers are only winning by an average of 7.4 points in this situation. Take the Chippewas.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Portland +4.5
Portland gets the call tonight as plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 20 points or more, in December games, are an impressive 69-33 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Ohio is 6-1 on the season and overvalued because of it. It has especially been overvalued versus teams that shoot 42% or worse and allow their opponents to shoot 45% or better. Since coach Groce has been at the helm, fading the Bobcats against such foes has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record.

In addition, the Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Drexel -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Drexel to take care of business in its first home game of the season.

The fact Drexel enters off a road loss to Delaware is significant because the Dragons are 17-8 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following a road loss to a conference rival. The Dragons have won these games by an average of 7.9 points.

Drexel is 21-11 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following any road loss, winning in this situation by an average of 9.5 points.

The Dragons are also 22-12 ATS under coach Flint in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. This trend is 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season and carries an average winning margin of 10.7 points. Lay the points with Drexel.

3* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Idaho +13
Idaho fits into a very profitable system this evening. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing on one or less days' rest are 124-71 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.6% success rate the last 14 years. Plus, this system is already 3-1 ATS this season.

In addition, the Vandals have been a phenomenal investment on the road. They are 3-0 ATS in road games this season and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Plus, the Vandals are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.

Oregon State is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take Idaho and the points tonight.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Missouri State -4
Fueled by back-to-back losses on the road and further motivated by last season's loss at Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to have their revenge at home tonight.

The Cowboys have been a downright terrible road investment as they are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 road games. They are 15-39-2 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games.

The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS when playing away from home since the beginning of last season, 1-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS in road games after playing their last lined game as a home favorite since the beginning of last year.

The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and we'll lay the points with them in this extremely motivated spot tonight.

4* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Tulsa +3.5
Tulsa has lost 5 of its last 6 but only one of those defeats came at home and none of them came by more than 5 points. Motivated by a 3-game losing streak and further motivated by last season's 3-point loss at Wichita St., expect Tulsa to take care of business tonight.

This is Wichita State's first true road game of the season and it comes following a big win over UNLV. Riding high following that victory, I see a letdown coming for the Shockers.

Tulsa is an impressive 9-2 ATS since the beginning of last season when matched up against very good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 8 points or more per game.

Tulsa's ability to rebound the basketball is what really gives it the edge in this one. Consider that Wichita State is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Marshall vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7 or more per game. The Shockers have lost to these teams by an average of 7.5 points. Take Tulsa.

4* Under the Radar Blowout on George Washington -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to quality K-State and Virginia Commonwealth squads on the road and on a neutral floor respectively, expect the Colonials to roll in their first true home game in nearly a month.

This is the perfect time to ride GW as it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a loss and 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after trailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

The Colonials are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

In addition, the Greyhounds are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Loyola hasn't been tested since its season-opening double-digit loss to Wake Forest and it won't survive this test tonight.

3* NCAAB SMASH on SIU Edwardsville +15.5
This isn't a favorable spot for Ball State, which is coming off a 23-point win over Tennessee-Martin and will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's big showdown with national runner-up and in-state rival Butler. Butler crushed Ball State by 33 points last season, and the Cards will be out for revenge.

SIU Edwardsville will be out for revenge tonight as it looks to atone for last season's 30-point loss to Ball State. Because that was such a lopsided win for the Cards, you can bet SIU Edwardsville won't have their full attention.

Ball State destroyed Tennessee-Martin last game as it shot 51.9% from the field, but don't count on the hot shooting continue. Prior to that game, the Cards averaged 39.9% shooting and hadn't shot better than 46% in any contest.

The Cardinals have been a very poor investment in non-conference action, going 27-55-1 ATS in their last 83 non-conference games.

Also, the Cougars make 8 3's per game and shoot them at a nearly 40% clip. This doesn't bode well for Ball State, which is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay -3.5
Austin Peay, which will have its top 3 scorers from last year's 20-win team on the floor tonight, is 0-9 out of the gate and will be hungry to record its first win of the season. It is worth mentioning that a tough schedule has been partly responsible for the slow start.

Arkansas State, which lost its top 4 scorers from last season's 17-win squad, enters with the better record (3-4) and yet it is catching points. The Red Wolves have played a relatively soft schedule, winning the two games they were supposed to win before upsetting St. Bonaventure.

Odds makers believe the Governors will pick up their first win of the season here and I have to agree.

An evaluation of last year's matchups against like opponents indicates Austin Peay is the better side. These two both faced Memphis and SE Missouri State last season. Austin Peay played SE Missouri State 3 times and defeated it by at least 16 points in each. Arkansas State won its matchup with SEMS by just 6 points. Also, the Governors played Memphis to a 2-point game on the road while the Red Wolves lost at Memphis by 7 points.

The Red Wolves are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Governors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with an overall losing record.

Lastly, plays on a home team that averages 63-67 ppg and allowed 85 points or more in its last game, provided it is matched up against a team that allows 63 or fewer ppg, are 26-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on William & Mary +14
Due to a combination of William & Mary's 31-point loss to Richmond and Georgia State's 26-point win over Florida International, the Tribe are being undervalued here.

William & Mary returns 4 starters from last year's team, which defeated the Panthers by 4 points. In fact, the Tribe have either won or lost by no more than 9 points in any of the last 10 meetings in this series.

Georgia State has been playing good defense during its winning streak, but keep in mind William & Mary is 33-12 ATS in its last 45 road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or fewer per game. The Tribe are only losing by an average of 7.7 points in this situation.

The Tribe are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, and the Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Also, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nevada +4.5
Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team, which was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Washington last year. That loss is all the motivation the Wolf Pack need tonight.

Washington only returns two starters from last year's squad and will really miss leading scorer Isaiah Thomas in this one. That's because Nevada's Malik Story is one of the best guards in the country no one is talking about.

The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take the points as this experienced Nevada team has an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Canisius +13.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and playing at home for the first time this season, expect Canisius to give an Iona team playing its first true road contest a game.

Canisius upset the Gaels at home last season with a 2-point win. It has won 3 of the last 5 at home in this series and the 2 losses during this span have come by just 1 and 5 points.

The Gaels are 19-42-5 ATS in their last 66 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They are also 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or more.

The Golden Griffins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 13.0 points or more.

The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. The Gaels are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Canisius. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on UC Santa Barbara +3.5
This is a major letdown spot for UNLV after knocking off No. 1 ranked North Carolina. That win also increased the size of the target on UNLV's back.

UCSB will be lacking no confidence here as it has defeated the Runnin' Rebels 3 straight times. It won by 6 on the road last season.

The Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Gauchos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

This is UNLV's first true road game of the season, and it happens to come against a team that has had its number. We'll take the home dog.

3* NCAAB Soft Line Slaughter on UAB -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Blazers to take their frustrations out on a S. Alabama squad they have defeated 6 straight times by an average of 13.7 points. It's worth noting that none of those 6 wins came by fewer than 5 points.

The Blazers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Jaguars are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA.

S. Alabama is also 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2009 season versus very good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. It's losing to these foes by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Florida State +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Seminoles to give Michigan State all it wants and more tonight.

The Spartans are coming off a 32-point win at Eastern Michigan but are 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 30 points or more since the start of the 2009 season.

The Spartans have been a poor investment when laying points, especially at home, where they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Seminoles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.

FSU was one of the best defensive teams in the country last season and nothing has changed. The Noles rank 8th nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing their foes to shoot just 33.7%.

Michigan State has struggled offensively early on. It ranks 221st in the country in field goal percentage. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Loyola Marymount +9
St. Louis' fast start has put it in the top 25 for the first time since the 1993-94 season. Now, it heads to Loyola Marymount overvalued and with a big target on its back.

St. Louis is an experienced team, but its early season success is getting a bit overblown. The Billikens have been outrebounded in each of their last 5 games, but have been bailed out by shooting over 50% as a team for the season.

The shots didn't fall as well for St. Louis in its only other true road game this season. It shot 42.3% at Southern Illinois and was fortunate the Salukis couldn't throw it in the ocean, shooting just 20.5% from the field. The Billikens likely won't be able to count on poor shooting from Loyola this evening as the Lions have shot nearly 48% in back-to-back wins.

Loyola Marymount showed how well it can play when it knocked off then-No. 17 UCLA 69-58 in its season opener Nov. 1. UCLA has been up and down early, but the Bruins have every bit as much talent as St. Louis.

The Billikens have been a poor investment on the road in non-conference action under coach Majerus at just 6-18 ATS in this situation with an average losing margin of 4.3 points. We'll take the home dog.

3* Big Ten/ACC Challenge SMASH (ESPN) on Maryland +4.5
The Illini are young and inexperienced - two things that won't bode well for them in their first true road game of the season.

The Terrapins played Illinois to a 4-point game on a neutral floor last season, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset at home tonight. Illinois needed to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range in last year's meeting to get the win. I don't see an Illini team making just 6 threes a game at a 35.9% clip going off again.

Last year's Illinois squad was very experienced with Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making the majority of the plays. These three fixtures have all moved on.

Maryland lost Jordan Williams, but fortunately brings back Terrell Stoglin, who can score points in bunches. He had 17 against Illinois last year.

It's been best to fade the Illini when they're laying points on the road. After all, they're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games as a favorite.

Also, Illinois is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when checking into a game off a home win in which it scored 85 points or more. The Illini have won in this situation but only by an average of 2.5 points.

Illinois is also 0-7 ATS since the start of 2009 in road games after leading in its previous game by 15 points or more at the half. It's lost by an average of 3.6 points in this situation. We'll take the Terps.

3* NCAAB *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN2) on Vandy -3
This Vandy team is talented, deep and experienced, and it has been a force to be reckoned with at home in non-conference play. In fact, the Commodores have won 38 of 41 home games against non-conference opponents since 2007.

Xavier is a solid team, but start guard Tu Holloway isn't 100%. He took only 4 shots against Georgia due to a finger injury. The Musketeers didn't need his offense against the Dawgs, but they will tonight.

Xavier has lost its last four road games against ranked opponents. Also, the Musketeers are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Mack in road games when matched up against an opponent carrying a win percentage better than 80%. They have lost these games by an average of 9.1 points. Take Vandy.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on W. Michigan +17
The Broncos are a much better team than they have showed thus far. They bring back all 5 starters from a team that won the MAC West last year and are picked to win it again.

I expect to see this team play harder than it has all season after getting embarrassed with a 43-point loss at Purdue. The Broncos shot an unheard of 17.8% from the field (8 of 45) in that game. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier this afternoon.

Robert Sacre has been a beast for the Zags, but he won't get whatever he wants in this one. Western Michigan big man Matt Stainbrook will be motivated following the worst performance of his career and further motivated by the challenge of matching up with Sacre. Stainbrook averaged 19.5 points and 8.5 boards in the opening four games before being held scoreless with one rebound in 16 foul-plagued minutes of Wednesday's 80-37 loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% or less of their games on the season, are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 14.5 points on average but have only lost by an average of 10.8. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii -10
Off back-to-back defeats, including an upset loss to E. Washington last game, expect this experienced Hawaii team to take out their frustrations on a Pacific squad that doesn't return a single starter.

The Tigers have played Hawaii twice in the last 12 years. They lost to the Warriors by 11 points on a neutral floor in the most recent meeting, and they were blown out by 30 in their most recent trip to the island.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big West Conference.

The Tigers fell to 0-7 ATS in their last 7 lined games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 lined road games with a 24-point loss at Nevada on Nov. 17. We faded the Tigers as a 14-point dog for an easy cover that night and we'll fade them again here.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Youngstown State +9.5
I like Youngstown State catching close to double digits here because of the edge it has in terms of experience.

The Peguins return 5 of their top 7 scorers and four of those players are averaging better than 11 ppg this season.

The Nittany Lions have lost 4 of last year's top 5 scorers, including Taylor Battle, who averaged over 20 ppg. Tim Frazier, the lone returning starter, has stepped up, but the team has been far too reliant on him to score the points early on. He averages 20 ppg but no one else gets more than 7.4. Penn State's lack of offensive balance will be its Achilles' heel as more teams scheme to slow down Frazier.

The Penguins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UNC-Wilmington +7.5
Following a solid showing at Maryland in its opener, UNC Wilmington laid an egg in Dayton, shooting 34.5% from the field and committing 20 turnovers in a 25-point loss. Motivated by that poor showing, expect the Seahawks to take Marshall right down to the wire tonight in their first home game of the season.

Marshall has taken care of three straight inferior opponents on its home floor but things get much tougher tonight as it hits the road for the first time.

The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment in non-conference play, going 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference contests. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points while the Thundering Herd are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Herd are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, Buzz Peterson's teams are 12-3 ATS all-time when coming off an embarrassing road loss in which they were held to less than 60 points. His teams have actually responded to win by an average of 9.8 points in this situation. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UL Monroe +20
This is a big letdown spot for Mississippi State following back-to-back upset wins over Texas A&M and Arizona.

The Bulldogs have been a terrible investment as a favorite, going just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when laying points. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. It's also worth noting that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Sun Belt.

There are also a couple strong systems in play that stack the odds heavily against Mississippi State.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record, are 71-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by an average of 19.8 points but have only won by an average of 17.2.

In addition, plays against home favorites of 20 or more points after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, top level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season, are 21-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

3* Soft Line Slaughter on UMass -3.5
This game is all about revenge for the Minutemen, who lost at B.C. by 5 points last season. With 5 of last season's top scorers back, UMass should have its revenge.

The Eagles don't return a single starter and lost their 5 top scorers from last year's squad. To make matters worse, Patrick Heckmann, who scored 19 points in a win over New Hampshire, is still expected to be out with an ankle injury.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the ACC while the Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Atlantic 10. The Minutemen are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Boston College. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Cal State Northridge +13
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, look for Cal State Northridge to give the Broncos a game this afternoon.

Boise State is being overvalued here following its big win over Utah. We can't forget the Broncos lost the top 4 scorers from last year's team. That's 4 players who averaged 9.9 points or more.

After a quality showing at USC, the Matadors were beat up at Hawaii. That wasn't unexpected considering the island advantage the Warriors have. The dors haven't played since Monday, so they'll be itching to get on the floor and bounce back from a disappointing performance against Hawaii.

The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They're also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Winthrop +18
Marquette rolled in its first two games, but it was helped out by opponents that don't do a very good job of taking card of the basketball. Mount St. Mary's turned it over 29 times and Norfolk State turned it over 25 times. Marquette faces a tougher challenge tonight against a Winthrop team that takes good care of the basketball and does a good job of controlling the tempo. Winthrop only has 23 turnovers through its first two games and committed only 10 giveaways versus Virginia Tuesday.

Winthrop lost that game by 21 points, but the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The score was tied at 44 with 9:37 remaining in the second half. Winthrop has retraced its steps and knows the mistakes it made down the stretch to allow the Cavs to pull away. It will be better prepared for tonight's matchup because of that game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a loss by 15 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 115-66 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 12.7 points.

Also, plays on neutral court teams underdogs after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 80 points or more last game are 82-43 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 7.5 points. Take Winthrop.

3* Thursday Night NCAAB Blowout on Nevada -14
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, and further motivated by 4 straight losses to Pacific, expect the Wolf Pack to roll tonight.

Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team while Pacific doesn't return a single starter. In fact, it lost 7 players who averaged 5.5 points or more. The 2 players it brings back averaged 1.4 points or less.

After laying an egg against Missouri State in their opener, the Wolf Pack put forth a good performance against a quality UNLV team to get a cover. Now, they'll be ready to take out their frustrations over an 0-2 start versus an inferior foe this evening.

The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Pacific is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Thomason when listed as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. It's lost these games by an average of 17.7 points. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Princeton +9.5
Princeton showed some first-game jitters against Wagner, committing a ridiculous 28 turnovers. That performance was a blessing in disguise for the Tigers, who will no doubt be sharper tonight because of it.

Princeton has been one of the better investments in recent years, especially in the underdog role, because its ability to control the tempo with its half court style of play keeps it in games. In fact, the Tigers are 34-19 ATS in all lines games since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Getting more specific to tonight's unique situation, we find the Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC.

The Tigers are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, NC State is not at full strength. Top returning scorer C.J. Leslie doesn't return until Saturday. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on UCLA -9.5
Motivated by Friday's loss to Loyola Marymount, the Bruins will be out for blood this evening. There's no way they'll get caught overlooking MTSU because the Blue Raiders defeated Loyola Marymount Sunday.

I expect UCLA's season-opening wake-up call to serve it well. The suspension of Reeves Nelson is a further statement made by Ben Howland, and I expect his team to respond.

UCLA is 24-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Howland, whose teams are 11-2 ATS in home games following an upset loss since 1997.

Howland's teams are also 35-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997.

The message has been received from their coach. The Bruins will no doubt be geared up for this one. We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Southern Illinois +7
Motivated by a disappointing loss to Ohio Dominican in its season opener, expect Southern Illinois to bounce back strong tonight.

The Salukis will have an excellent opportunity to do so against a St. Louis team that has struggled on the road under Rick Majerus.

The Billikens are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 non-conference road games. They have dropped these 11 non-conference road games by an average of 9.7 points.

The dominance of the home team in this series also can't be ignored. Consider that the home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points as the Salukis take the Billikens right down to the wire.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro +20.5
Look for this experienced NC Greensboro team, which returns 4 starters and 6 players who averaged at least 6.0 points, to bounce back from Friday's embarrassing loss to Tennessee.

The Spartans lost to the Vols by 29 points, but keep in mind that Tennessee went off from deep in that game, connecting on 15 of 24 three-point shots. That is a flukish total, and one that will inspire the Spartans to get after it a whole lot harder at the defensive end in this one.

Georgetown lost its top 2 scorers from last year's team and returns just 2 starters. After handling Savannah State and watching Tennessee crush NC Greensboro, I don't expect the Hoyas to give the Spartans their full attention. The Georgetown players are already thinking about their next game against Kansas.

Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that are coming off a road loss, with 2 more starters returning from last year than their opponent, are 52-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are losing by 11.5 points on average. It's also worth noting that this system is 30-8 ATS (79%) the last 3 seasons.

The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Spartans are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on UC Davis +20.5
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Look for this trend to continue here.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing with one or less days' rest are 121-70 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.4% cover rate the last 14 years. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 12.4 points.

Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, I'm expecting a great effort from the Aggies here. Plus, it will be tough for an inexperienced SDSU team to give UC Davis the attention it deserves. The Aztecs just beat Southern Utah 70-37. That Southern Utah team just upset Davis Friday. With this in mind, you can bet the Aztecs will be looking right past the Aggies and ahead to a matchup at Baylor Tuesday. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Evansville +3
Expect Butler to struggle early on as it tries to adjust to life without Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack. You might recall the Bulldogs struggling a little early last season as they were trying to adjust to life without NBA lottery pick Gordon Hayward.

As you know, Butler has made consecutive trips to the NCAA championship game. Evansville played Butler in each of those seasons. In 2009, the Purple Aces lost by just 4 points. Last year, they won on the road. Expect them to make it 2 in a row over the Bulldogs this afternoon.

Butler lost 53-50 in an exhibition game to Northern State, an NCAA Division II school from South Dakota. The Bulldogs clearly aren't at the level they were last season.

The Purple Aces are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Columbia +24.5
Connecticut is almost always overvalued, and it is most certainly overvalued when coming off a national championship. Plenty of talent remains on Jim Calhoun's squad, but I believe it's going to take this team some time to adjust to life without Kemba Walker. We're talking about an experienced player who took every big shot all season long for this team.

Columbia returns four starters, including the Ivy League

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Lehigh +13
St. John's covered the spread in its first game because of a plus-17 turnover margin. Other than that, the Johnnies weren't all that impressive. They allowed William & Mary to shoot nearly 46% from the field and were outrebounded. If Lehigh can take care of the basketball, it can give St. John's a game tonight.

Lehigh is an experienced team with 4 starters returning, including Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year C.J. McCollum, who is the leading returning scorer in the nation after putting up 21.8 ppg last season. He is a pure scorer who can get his own shot almost any time. That's a huge asset when the shot clock is winding down.

There is some talent on St. John's, but this team is very young and inexperienced. It's going to go through ups and downs throughout the season, and I'm expecting it to struggle tonight against an experienced team.

Last season, these two played two like opponents (Wagner and Fordham), going 1-1 against them respectively. St, John's defeated Wagner by 8 points and Lehigh defeated it by 16 points. The Red Storm lost to Fordham by 3 points and the Hawks lost to it by 7 points. This just goes to show you Lehigh had the ability to play with St. John's last year when the Red Storm were a lot more experienced.

Lehigh is 6-0 ATS all-time in all lined games under coach Reed. Look for this trend to continue tonight.