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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-02-12	Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5	Top	112-91	Loss	-110	11 h 33 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Cavs +8.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 39-point loss to Chicago on Jan. 20, I expect Cleveland to cover this number behind an inspired performance. Because Chicago won the first meeting so handily, I believe it will be much more concerned with its upcoming revenge matchup with Philadelphia. The Cavs lost by 17 at New York Wednesday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games against top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 9 points or more per game. We'll take the points.
03-02-12	Providence v. Notre Dame -10.5		69-75	Loss	-110	10 h 3 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH on Notre Dame -10.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Notre Dame to bounce back strong at home on senior night. The Irish are 15-1 at home on the season with an average winning margin of 16.1 points in those games. They have won 5 straight at home in Big East play against the likes of Syracuse, Marquette, DePaul, Rutgers and West Virginia by an average of 15.8 points. Providence has lost 7 of its last 8 on the road against Big East foes with that lone win coming against last place DePaul. These 7 losses have come by an average of 12.6 points. Also, the Irish have won 8 in a row against Providence with 2 of the last 3 wins coming by 15 points or more. Notre Dame needs a victory to assure itself a double-bye in the conference tournament, and it won't hold anything back.
03-01-12	Miami Heat v. Portland Trail Blazers +5		107-93	Loss	-105	14 h 44 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Trail Blazers +5 Miami is being overvalued here as it has won 8 in a row and has the highest winning percentage in the East. History does not appear to be on Miami's side here as it is 0-9 ATS all-time under Spoelstra when checking in off 3 or more consecutive home wins. It is losing by an average 9.1 points in this situation. The Blazers are a heck of a home team. They are 13-5 at the Rose Garden with an average winning margin of 12.7 points. 3 of their home losses have come to the Magic, Thunder and Clippers and none of those came by more than 4 points. The Trail Blazers are entering off a SU and ATS loss at Denver but are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. We'll take the points.
03-01-12	Washington v. USC +7.5	Top	80-58	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +7.5 Motivated by 7 consecutive losses and an embarrassing 28-point defeat at Washington last month, expect USC to save face by giving the Huskies a game. Washington has been far from dominant on the road. The Huskies are 5-6 when playing away from home this season and none of those 5 wins have come by more than 6 points. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. We'll take the points.
03-01-12	Utah State v. San Jose St +4		71-61	Loss	-105	13 h 28 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on San Jose State +4 Utah State won the first meeting at home handily, but I expect things to go much different for the Aggies on the road this evening. Utah State is just 2-10 when playing away from home this season. It has lost 8 of its last 9 on the road with the lone win coming by just 4 points. The 8 losses have come by an average of 6.8 points. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. We'll take the points.
02-29-12	Portland Trailblazers v. Denver Nuggets -3	Top	95-104	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -3 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by losses in the season's first two matchups with Portland, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight. The Blazers won the season's first two meetings by 9 and 20 points but both of those games were in Portland. Home court has meant everything in this series with the home team covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 meetings. Denver has won 6 in a row at home against the Blazers by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Trail Blazers are just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.
02-29-12	Ohio v. Kent State -2	Top	61-68	Win	100	9 h 27 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Kent State -2 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further fueled by a 22-point beatdown at Ohio last month, expect Kent State to roll at home this evening. One thing Kent State doesn't do is lose to the same team twice in the same season. In fact, it is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's winning by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. In addition, the Golden Flashes has been a tremendous investment as small home chalk, going 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem. Take Kent State.
02-29-12	Marquette v. Cincinnati -1		61-72	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Cincinnati -1 Motivated by a 1-point loss at South Florida and with an embarrassing 17-point loss at Marquette earlier this month also stoking the fire, expect Cincy to come out on top tonight. I believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by favoring unranked Cincy against 7th-ranked Marquette. The Bearcats have been terrific at home all season. They have won their last 4 at home by an average of 8.0 points. If you're going to pick a day to back the Bearcats, Wednesday has been the day. Under coach Cronin, Cincy is 31-13 ATS in Wednesday games, winning them by an average score of 69.1 to 63.0. This stat is too good to ignore and says a lot about the early week preparation of Cronin. It's also worth noting that the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take Cincy.
02-28-12	Texas Christian v. Wyoming -7		59-71	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Wyoming -7 This is a sandwich game for TCU, which is coming off a big win over New Mexico and has San Diego State on deck. Wyoming, who lost by 6 at TCU on Feb. 1, will be out for some serious revenge on senior night. The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 65 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. In addition, the Cowboys are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points.
02-28-12	Minnesota +9.5 v. Wisconsin	Top	45-52	Win	100	12 h 39 m	Show
5* Big Ten BEST BET on Minnesota +9.5 Hungry to end a 5-game slide, and further fueled by a 7-point loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 9, expect Minnesota to give the Badgers a game this evening. Wisconsin, which has split the last 6 meetings with Minnesota, hasn't defeated the Gophers by more than 9 points since 2008. It is clearly being overvalued here because it is coming off a big win over Ohio State. That win is significant because the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. The Badgers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The fact Minnesota enters off an embarrassing 19-point loss to Indiana also bodes well for us. Consider that plays on road teams as an underdog or pickem off an embarrassing home loss in which they were held to 60 points or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 75-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 9.2 points on average but have only lost by an average of 7.3. We'll take the points.
02-28-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons +4		97-68	Loss	-109	11 h 59 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Pistons +4 Motivated by losing the season's first 2 meetings by 23 and 21 points in Philadelphia, expect the Pistons to get some payback tonight. Detroit has quietly won 10 of its last 12 ATS. Plus, it is 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. 2 of those losses came by just 3 and 4 points to Miami and San Antonio. The struggling 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Detroit.
02-27-12	Kansas v. Oklahoma State +9	Top	70-58	Loss	-102	13 h 40 m	Show
5* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +9 Kansas is in for a letdown tonight after coming back from a 19-point second half deficit to beat Missouri 87-86 in overtime Saturday to clinch at least a share of its eighth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title. "I hate nothing more than losing to Missouri, but to me it wasn't about the last time we played," coach Bill Self said. "To me it was about this team winning its eighth straight championship. I'm not the most emotional guy, but that was as good as it gets." It sounds to me like Self already feels like his team has accomplished something. The Jayhawks likely won't have the focus or drive to come away with a victory tonight. Even if they do show up, the Cowboys have an excellent opportunity to keep it within the number. Oklahoma State is 11-3 at home this season with those 3 losses coming by just 6, 8 and 4 points respectively. The Cowboys lost the season's first meeting by 13 at Kansas but are 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They have won by an average of 1.4 points in these games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, they are 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Self when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games and 0-6 ATS all-time under Self in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games. Kansas hasn't been able to expose teams that don't get a great deal of points off assists, which bodes well for us. It's also in our favor that Oklahoma State doesn't turn the ball over very much. Under coach Travis Ford, the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. We'll take the points.
02-26-12	Iowa v. Illinois -5.5		54-65	Win	100	11 h 52 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH on Illinois -5.5 Odds makers are begging for action on Iowa with this line but we won't oblige them. The Hawks have won back-to-back games at home while Illinois has dropped 6 in a row, but I fully expect the Illini to get off the snide this evening. Iowa has not been the same team on the road, where it has dropped 5 in a row by an average of 15.8 points. And, the Hawkeyes have had absolutely no luck in Champagne, where they have lost 10 straight by an average of 13 points. Illinois holds home wins over Ohio State and Michigan State so there's no questioning the potential of this team. I expect it all to come together for the Illini in this motivated spot.
02-26-12	California v. Colorado +3	Top	57-70	Win	100	10 h 25 m	Show
5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Colorado +3 Motivated by an embarrassing 24-point loss to Stanford, which snapped a 10-game home winning streak, and further fueled by 7-point loss at Cal last month, expect Colorado to take care of business at home this evening. Consider that all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 71-33 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-1 ATS on the season. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cal and have won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 17.7 points. Bet the Buffs.
02-25-12	Cal St-Northridge +6 v. Cal Irvine		85-94	Loss	-110	15 h 13 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Cal State Northridge +6 Off back-to-back losses in which they were held to 49 and 61 points, and out to avenge an earlier loss to Irvine, expect the Matadors to leave it all on the floor tonight. Northridge is a perfect 6-0 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in consecutive games the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 75.4 to 63.9 in this situation. In addition, the Matadors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Anteaters are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Prior to this season's first meeting when the Matadors shot just 34% and lost by 9, they had either won or lost by 5 points or less in 4 straight matchups with the Anteaters. We'll take the points.
02-25-12	Wisc-Green Bay v. Illinois-Chicago +3	Top	71-63	Loss	-110	6 h 10 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Illinois-Chicago +3 Illinois Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses SU and ATS but that won't keep me away. You see, the Flames are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Illinois Chicago defeated Green Bay by 2 points at home last season as a 2-point dog and it won by 7 at home in 2010 as a 4-point dog. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.
02-25-12	LSU v. Mississippi -3.5		48-72	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
4* Early Annihilator on Ole Miss -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to Vandy, Kentucky and Tennessee, expect Ole Miss to bounce back strong at home against an LSU squad that has lost 5 of its last 6 on the highway. This is a game the Rebels want badly because they were embarrassed (81-55) at LSU last month. Playing at home figures to treat the Rebs better considering they have won their last 2 and 4 of their last 5 at home against the Tigers. Ole Miss is 20-6 ATS all-time under coach Kennedy in home games when matched up against a good team with a winning percentage between 60 and 80% after 15 or more games into the season. The Rebels have won these games by an average score of 75.4 to 70.7. We'll lay the points.
02-24-12	Fairfield +8 v. Iona	Top	72-77	Win	100	12 h 32 m	Show
5* NCAAB Friday Night Feast on Fairfield +8 Since losing 71-62 at home to Iona on Jan. 27, the defending MAAC champs have been on a mission. They have won 7 straight in conference play by an average of 14.4 points. This run includes an impressive 6-point home win over Manhattan and an even more impressive 17-point road win over Loyola Maryland. With a chance to pull even with Iona for first place in the league, I expect an inspired effort from the Stags this evening. The first meeting between these two was closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Despite facing a 19-point half time deficit, Fairfield rallied to pull within 4 points with 2:39 remaining. They missed their final 3 shots while the Gaels connected on 5 of 6 free throws to earn the 9-point victory. I don't see the Stags falling behind big again, which gives them an excellent opportunity to cover this generous number. Coach Sydney Johnson's teams are 14-4 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. In addition, his squads are 15-5 ATS when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent and 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to a foe. The Stags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the MAAC. The Gaels are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.
02-23-12	New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -8.5		88-102	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -8.5 This is a statement game for Miami. Linsanity has taken the focus away from the best team in the East, and I expect LeBron James and company to get everyone's attention with an impressive win this evening. Miami has defeated Indiana, San Antonio, the LA Lakers, Philadelphia and Orlando by double digits at home and these are all teams I believe to be better than the Knicks. The Heat defeated the Knicks by 10 points at home last month. That was before Linsanity and Carmelo Anthony didn't play but the Knicks held a 48-point advantage from 3-point range in that game. It will take a similar shooting display for New York to keep this one close and I don't see it happening. Lin has been a great story but Miami has the horses to cause him major problems. Turnovers have been an issue for him, and Miami turns turnovers into fastbreak points. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. Take Miami.
02-23-12	South Alabama v. Florida Atlantic -6	Top	79-76	Loss	-114	10 h 45 m	Show
5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 9-point loss at South Alabama earlier this month, expect FAU to roll at home tonight. The Jaguars enter having won 3 in a row in conference play, and that doesn't bode well for them. Under coach Arrow, they are just 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins and 2-9 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. It is extremely significant that FAU averages 70.1 point at home and S. Alabama gives up 71.8 points on the road. That's because the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average of 13.7 points. Lay the points.
02-23-12	Alabama v. Arkansas -2		79-68	Loss	-110	10 h 47 m	Show
4* SEC SMASH on Arkansas -2 After suffering their first home loss in SEC play - an embarrassing 30-point setback against Florida - the Hogs will be hungry tonight. Right away one has to like the fact that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (Arkansas in this case) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games and after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more - are 43-14 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In addition, Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Plus, the Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take the Razorbacks.
02-22-12	Michigan State v. Minnesota +5.5		66-61	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH on Minnesota +5.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and an embarrassing 16-point loss at Michigan State last month, expect Minnesota to take the Spartans down to the wire tonight. Michigan State looks to be the class of the Big Ten, but it hasn't proven it can be trusted laying points on the road. The Spartans were fortunate to win at Wisconsin and have losses at Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois. In fact, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the points.
02-22-12	Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +6		102-88	Loss	-110	9 h 4 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +6 The Bobcats lost by 22 points at Indiana on Jan. 7 and by 35 points at Indiana on Sunday. The Bobcats haven't played since, and you can bet they'll be out for some serious revenge on their home floor tonight. Charlotte catches the Pacers at a good time as they just played an overtime game last night. The Pacers are a lousy 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Look for Charlotte to take Indiana down to the wire.
02-22-12	Ohio v. Buffalo -3	Top	88-77	Loss	-105	9 h 29 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Buffalo -3 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Ohio, expect Buffalo to bounce back strong at home where it has won 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Ohio has struggled on the road where it has dropped 4 of its last 5 with those 4 losses coming by an average of 8.0 points. Its lone win during this stretch came against a Northern Illinois squad that is 3-22. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats went 0-5 ATS in these games. The Bulls are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Lay the points.
02-21-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5		97-137	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
4* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Trail Blazers -3.5 Portland, which is 12-5 at home on the season, has been one of the toughest home teams in the league for years. That's something the Spurs know all too well. San Antonio has lost 6 straight at the Rose Garden with those losses coming by an average of 8.2 points. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 in the series and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland. Also, the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The Blazers were kicked by 16 in San Antonio last month but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that Portland is 11-2 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to 85 points or less. It has won by an average score of 102.6 to 90.0 in this situation. Last night's SU and ATS loss to the Lakers also bodes well for us. After all, the Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. They are also 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. We'll lay the points.
02-21-12	New Mexico v. Colorado St +6		63-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Colorado State +6 The Rams were crushed 85-52 at New Mexico last month, but I like their chances at revenge tonight. Colorado State, which has won its last 11 at home and defeated the Lobos at home last season, is 8-1 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 10.0 points. It is also worth noting that Colorado State has either won or lost by 6 points or less to the Lobos in 5 of its last 6 home games in the series. We'll take the points.
02-21-12	Kentucky v. Mississippi State +9	Top	73-64	Push	0	11 h 27 m	Show
5* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi State +9 Off 3 consecutive defeats and with the No. 1 team in the country in town, expect maximum effort from Mississippi State this evening. Kentucky has needed overtime to win the previous two meetings between these teams, and the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of 4.7 points. Also, Mississippi State has won 13 of its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming in overtime to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off 2 or more consecutive road losses, winning by an average score of 73.1 to 65.6 in this situation. The Bulldogs are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points.
02-20-12	Washington Wizards +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns	Top	88-104	Loss	-105	12 h 33 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Wizards +5.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak in the series, expect the Wizards to play some inspired basketball this evening. The Suns are coming off a big revenge win over the Lakers last night and very likely won't give the Wizards enough respect here. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Washington, which has had 2 full days of rest, will be the fresher team tonight. The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against an opponent with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Suns have only won these games by an average of 0.1 points. It's also worth noting that the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the points.
02-20-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +3.5		106-102	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3.5 Look for the Spurs' 10-game win streak to come to an end in Utah tonight. The Jazz are 12-5 at home on the season where they have key wins over the 76ers, Trail Blazers, Clippers and Lakers. They have also lost at home to the Lakers, Clippers and Mavs by 3 points or less. The Spurs have shown they can't be trusted laying points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take Utah.
02-20-12	New Orleans Hornets +11.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		93-101	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Hornets +11.5 New Orleans, which enters this matchup with plenty of momentum following 3 straight wins, will be out for some serious revenge against the Thunder, who have won the season's first 2 meetings. This is not an ideal spot for Oklahoma City, which will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back (against a team that has had 2 days of rest) after getting pushed to overtime yesterday. New Orleans should be the fresher side without question. Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenging for a road loss to an opponent, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 16-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. Take New Orleans.
02-19-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +3		90-102	Win	100	13 h 27 m	Show
4* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Suns +3 Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 111-99 loss at L.A. Friday, I expect the Suns to bounce back strong tonight. The Lakers have really struggled on the road, going 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and even 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Two things happened in Friday's meeting that I don't expect to happen tonight. Kobe Bryant went off for an efficient 36 points (14-of-25 shooting) and Steve Nash committed a season-worst seven turnovers. Expect the Suns to do a much better job on Bryant and Nash to take better care of the basketball. The result should be a Phoenix victory. The Suns will make Kobe take more shots to get his. Also, Nash has an opportunity to have a big game. The Lakers typically struggle against teams with good point guards.
02-19-12	South Florida v. Pittsburgh -6.5	Top	56-47	Loss	-111	12 h 11 m	Show
5* Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -6.5 Extremely motivated following 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a 12-point loss at South Florida last week, expect Pitt to take care of business on its home floor this evening. The Bulls haven't been the same team on the road. They are 3-9 when playing away from home this season and 6 of their 7 losses in true road games have come by 23, 28, 12, 11, 20 and 30 points. In other words, South Florida is far from immune to taking a beating on the highway. The Bulls are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Pitt is coming off a very poor showing against West Virginia in which it only scored 48 points. That sour performance will especially light a fire under the Panthers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Pound Pitt.
02-19-12	Indiana v. Iowa +4		66-78	Win	100	11 h 20 m	Show
4* Big Ten BEST BET on Iowa +4 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point loss at Indiana last month, expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back strong at home this evening. The Hoosiers haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Iowa has been at its best at home where it is 11-5. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The fact Indiana enters off back-to-back home wins is also significant. That's because fading the Hoosiers in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record since coach Crean took the helm. The Hoosiers have lost these games by an average score of 81.9 to 66.4. The Hawks have won 4 of the last 5 meetings overall and 3 straight in Iowa City. The Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Iowa. Take the points.
02-18-12	Tennessee v. Alabama -3.5	Top	50-62	Win	100	7 h 2 m	Show
5* SEC Game of the Year on Alabama -3.5 Alabama is missing a couple key players, but I still love the Tide at home in this highly motivated spot versus a Tennessee team that is just 2-7 in true road games. Each of those 7 defeats have come by at least 4 points and have been by an average of 11.9 points. Alabama is an elite defensive team and it does an excellent job of working for good shots on the offensive end. This means you better be able to force some turnovers in order to come out on top against the Tide, especially in Tuscaloosa. The Vols only average 6 steals per game and Bama is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Grant in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15-plus games. The Tide have won these contests by an average score of 69.2 to 58.3. The Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Volunteers are also just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Tide.
02-18-12	Kansas State +7.5 v. Baylor		57-56	Win	100	7 h 60 m	Show
4* Big 12 BEST BET on Kansas State +7.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and a 2-point defeat to Baylor on Jan. 10, look for Kansas State to take the Bears down to the wire. The fact Baylor is coming off a SU and ATS win over Iowa State works in our favor. That's because the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Martin after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog. They are winning by an average score of 73.2 to 60.2 in this situation. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. We'll take the points.
02-18-12	Maryland Terrapins v. Virginia Cavaliers -10		44-71	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
4* Early Blowout on Virginia -10 Off back-to-back losses on the road to North Carolina and Clemson, expect Virginia to bounce back strong at home today. The Cavaliers are 12-1 at home where they are winning by an average of 17.5 points. Plus, the Cavs have been strong in bounce back spots going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Terrapins are a poor 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points.
02-17-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Philadelphia 76ers -2.5		82-75	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
4* NBA Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on 76ers -2.5 The Mavs are at a disadvantage tonight because of their lack of backcourt depth. Delonte West, their best perimeter defender is likely out until mid-March with a dislocated finger. Rodrique Beaubois is expected to miss tonight's game due to personal reasons and Jason Terry is expected to miss with a quad injury. These absences don't bode well for the Mavs as they go up against one of the deepest team in the league tonight. The 76ers enter off a loss but are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat. They are also 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.
02-17-12	Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5	Top	111-87	Loss	-110	10 h 2 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Cavaliers +10.5 Motivated by losing the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Cavs to give the Heat a game tonight. Cleveland has been no pushover this season. It played the Heat to a 7-point game on Jan. 24 and has wins over the Celtics, Mavericks and Clippers. The last time Miami visited, it was handed a 12-point defeat despite 27 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds from LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.
02-16-12	Brigham Young v. San Francisco +5.5	Top	85-84	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on San Francisco +5.5 San Francisco, which has won 7 of its last 9, has been hitting on all cylinders lately. Motivated by an embarrassing 81-56 loss at BYU early last month, I like the Dons' chances of pulling off the upset tonight. The fact BYU enters off a 22-point over Pepperdine bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Cougars are 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Dons are a terrific 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games vs. WCC foes, and a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. The Dons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Dons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. San Francisco couldn't buy a basket in the first meetings. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier at home where the Dons are 11-2. Take the points.
02-15-12	Cal Poly SLO v. Cal St-Northridge +7		81-94	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Cal State-Northridge +7 When these teams met last month Northridge was destroyed by a score of 100-54. That loss will have the Matadors out for blood tonight. The aforementioned lopsided defeat came at Cal Poly, where the Matadors also lost by a score of 72-49 last season. Things have gone much differently in Northridge however. Last season, the Matadors won by 15 at home. In fact, they have won 4 in a row at home in the series by an average of 15.5 points. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Matadors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Also, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.
02-15-12	Purdue v. Illinois -3	Top	67-62	Loss	-110	11 h 52 m	Show
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -3 Extremely motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and with a 6-game losing streak to Purdue also stoking the fire, expect Illinois to bounce back strong at home, where it is 12-2 on the season. Illinois has been a force to be reckoned with on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 10.4 points and has wins over Ohio State and Michigan State. Regulars remember that we played on Illinois on Jan. 31 following 3 straight conference defeats and watched the Fighting Illini upset Michigan State. In fact, Illinois is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses to conference foes. The Illini have won by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. We'll lay the points.
02-15-12	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +4	Top	95-96	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Rockets +4 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by losses to Oklahoma City in the season's first 2 meetings, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong at home, where they are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS). The Rockets only lost by 3 points at home to the Thunder on Jan. 7. In fact, they have either won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 13 of the last 14 at home in this series. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. In addition, plays against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 3.7 points but have lost by an average of 1.2. Take Houston as it has an excellent chance to win this one outright.
02-14-12	Youngstown State v. Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5	Top	65-71	Win	100	11 h 30 m	Show
5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5 This game is all about revenge for Wisconsin-Green Bay, who was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Youngstown State on Jan. 22. Every 30-point loss doesn't sit well, but this one will especially have the Phoenix jacked up because they had won 5 in a row against the Penguins by an average of 11.8 points. Wisconsin-GB has won 9 in a row at home in this series with these wins coming by an average of 14 points. Each victory came by at least 8 points. It is also worth noting that the Phoenix are 11-1 ATS all-time when looking for revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more under coach Wardle. Lay the points.
02-14-12	Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3		105-90	Loss	-115	9 h 15 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Pacers +3 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses, and further fueled by an embarrassing 35-point loss in Miami last month, expect Indiana to bounce back strong tonight. The Pacers will be the fresher team as they have had 2 full days to rest up and prepare. The Heat, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in as many days. Plays on home underdogs off an upset loss, good team winning 60% or more of their games on the season, are 45-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 2.6 points on average but have won by an average of 1.8 points. It is worth noting that this system has produced an 8-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Take the points.
02-14-12	Delaware v. Hofstra -3		71-57	Loss	-105	10 h 40 m	Show
4* NCAAB SMASH on Hofstra -3 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and a 1-point loss at Delaware in the season's first meeting, expect Hofstra to bounce back strong tonight. The Pride will be lacking no confidence considering they have won 6 of the last 7 in this series. They have won 11 straight at home against the Blue Hens with those wins coming by an average of 10.7 points. It is also worth noting that Hofstra is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Cassara 15 or more games into the season when matched up against poor shooting teams that make 42% of their shots or less. The Pride are winning these games by an average of 4.8 points. Take Hofstra.
02-13-12	Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5	Top	59-53	Loss	-110	12 h 46 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN) on Kansas State +4.5 Motivated by a loss at Texas Saturday, and further fueled by an embarrassing 18-point loss at Kansas on Jan. 4, expect the Wildcats to take care of business at home tonight. K-State is 10-2 at home on the season and those 2 losses came by just 2 and 3 points respectively. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats have a 16-point home win over Missouri, who beat the Jayhawks earlier this month. In addition, K-State won 84-68 in last season's home meeting against the Jayhawks, and that Kansas team was more polished that this year's squad. The Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Jayhawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take K-State.
02-13-12	Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 v. Orlando Magic		89-102	Loss	-107	10 h 48 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Timberwolves +5.5 Off 3 consecutive defeats, I expect an inspired effort from Minnesota here. The T-Wolves have been playing some ball on the road. They have either won or lost by 5 points or less in 9 of 11 road games, including 4 straight. The Timberwolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The fact Orlando hasn't been able to force many turnovers of late bodes well for us too. Consider that it is 0-8 ATS in home games after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. It's only winning by an average of 2.1 points in this situation. Lastly, the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the T-Wolves.
02-12-12	Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics +4		91-95	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
4* NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Celtics +4 Motivated by back-to-back losses and a Jan. 13 loss to the Bulls, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong this afternoon. Boston has been a strong investment when catching points at home, going 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a home underdog. The Bulls have covered the spread in each of their last 4 games in which they were valued as a favorite of 5 points or more, but they are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Chicago's Derrick Rose is listed as questionable for this one with a back injury. I'm expecting him to play, but I like Rajon Rondo's chances of holding him in check. Boston has won 10 of the last 13 at home in this series, and I'll take the C's in this highly motivated spot.
02-12-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State +2.5	Top	46-70	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Wright State +2.5 Hungry to end a 3-game skid, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at UW-Milwaukee last month, expect Wright State to continue its home dominance in the series Sunday afternoon. The Raiders have won 6 in a row at home against the Panthers with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It's also worth noting that Wright State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss at home. The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take Wright State.
02-11-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5		111-86	Loss	-110	12 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +10.5 The Clippers are gassed. This will be their 2nd game in as many nights and their 7th already this month. I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to put away a Charlotte team that has only played 4 games this month. The Bobcats were flat out embarrassed by Chicago last night, and that loss provides all the motivation they need to bounce back strong. Charlotte has either won or lost by 10 points or less in 13 of the last 14 in this series. Also, plays on underdogs of 10 or more points after scoring 80 points or less last game, provided they are facing an opponent that checks in off a game in which 160 total points or less were scored, are 22-4 ATS since 1996. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 11.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 4.8. Bet the Bobcats.
02-11-12	Valparaiso v. Youngstown State		53-71	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
4* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on Youngstown State pk Off a big upset win at Cleveland State, expect Valpo to fall flat on its face this evening. Youngstown State has been no pushover in the Horizon League at 8-6 and it has been strong at home at 7-3. Still, I expect the Crusaders to get caught overlooking a team they defeated by 14 last month and 14 straight times overall. In addition, Valpo is expected to be without Kevin Van Wijk, who is second on the team with 14.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. He was huge in the first meeting, leading the Crusaders with 23 points. The team will really miss his presence. Valpo is 2-10 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 74.3 to 65.0 in this situation. Take Youngstown.
02-11-12	Duquesne v. St Bonaventure -5.5	Top	48-69	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point defeat at Duquesne on Jan. 7, expect St. Bonaventure to roll at home this afternoon. The Bonnies have rattled off 7 straight home wins with those coming by an average of 18.9 points. It is also worth noting that each of those victories came by a minimum of 8 points. St. Bonnie has also won 3 in a row at home over the Dukes with those wins coming by an average of 8.7 points. The Bonnies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Dukes are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.
02-10-12	Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves	Top	104-97	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Mavs -2 The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening. This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation. The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot.
02-10-12	New Jersey Nets v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 188.5		92-109	Loss	-110	10 h 4 m	Show
4* NBA Total of the Week on Nets/Pistons Under 188.5 We saw just 191 total points scored when these two faced off Wednesday and Detroit shot a season-high 53.4 percent - just the 3rd time all season it's made 50% or more of its shots in a game. I don't see shots falling as easily for Detroit tonight as New Jersey really tightens the screws defensively, and this one should find its way under the number as a result. We also find that New Jersey made 10 3-pointers Wednesday, so you can bet the Pistons will be looking to do a better job of defending the 3-point line. The Under is 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games vs. all teams with a losing home record. With odds makers listing the total lower than what these teams just scored, they are clearly begging for action on the over. We won't bite. Take the Under.
02-09-12	San Diego v. Pepperdine -1.5		70-57	Loss	-105	12 h 31 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Pepperdine -1.5 The San Diego Toreros have been one of the worst investments in recent years at 21-44-1 ATS in their last 66 games overall. They are even 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that San Diego is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of last season when listed at +3 to -3, losing these contests by an average of 9.3 points. The fact Pepperdine is favored against a team it lost to by 9 points last month is a good sign. After all, the Waves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Also, the Toreros are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Pepperdine. Take the Waves.
02-09-12	Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -3.5	Top	96-89	Loss	-104	11 h 6 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Suns -3.5 Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor. The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.
02-09-12	Denver v. Florida Atlantic +1		71-72	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
4* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week on Florida Atlantic +1 This is a major letdown spot for Denver following Saturday's big 15-point win over Middle Tennessee. Consider that Denver is 0-8 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average of 6.2 points. In addition, the Pioneers are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 11.0 points in this situation (note: I included this trend because the Pioneers are currently a pickem at most books). Denver is also 0-6 ATS in road games in February over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and we'll side with the Owls at home tonight.
02-08-12	South Carolina +7 v. Tennessee		57-69	Loss	-101	10 h 18 m	Show
4* NCAAB BEST BET on South Carolina +7 Off back-to-back games against the league's best (Florida and Kentucky), South Carolina will be primed for a showdown with a Tennessee team it wants badly. The Gamecocks return 4 starters who suffered 4 and 6-point losses to the Vols last season. Those narrow defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. South Carolina is a little bit better than its record might lead you to believe. It's just 1-7 in conference play but 5 of those losses came to Florida, Kentucky and Vandy. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. It is also worth noting the Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Tennessee. Take the points.
02-08-12	Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3	Top	87-97	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3 Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night. The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points. In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks.
02-07-12	Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -7	Top	107-105	Loss	-108	11 h 47 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bucks -7 The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight. Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks.
02-06-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5		89-84	Loss	-103	11 h 38 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Grizzlies -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and a pair of losses to San Antonio this season, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies have been at their best at home where they have won 7 of 10 games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, losing 8 of 11. It is also worth noting that they have dropped 5 of their last 6 at Memphis with those five losses coming by an average of 10.4 points. The fact the Grizzlies played yesterday is of no concern. We're talking about a team that is 21-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when playing on back-to-back days. It has won by an average score of 100.1 to 96.7 in this situation. Also, the Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 25-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss over the last 2 seasons, 19-8 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games, 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Take the Grizzlies.
02-06-12	Missouri v. Oklahoma +5	Top	71-68	Win	100	9 h 27 m	Show
5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Oklahoma +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing 38-point loss at Missouri on Jan. 3, expect Oklahoma to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a difficult spot for Mizzou, which is coming off an emotional victory over Kansas and has a big showdown with Baylor up next. As you might recall, the Tigers came out flat and lost by 7 points at Oklahoma State following a 1-point win over Baylor last month. I expect a similar letdown here following such a big win over the Jayhawks. Mizzou has won 2 of its last 3 on the road but both of those wins came by a single point. It's typically been tough sledding on the road in terms of the point spread for the Tigers, who are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 road games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Sooners have won 5 of the last 7 at home in the series and neither of those 2 defeats came by more than 4 points. Take Oklahoma.
02-04-12	Buffalo v. Toledo +5	Top	72-65	Loss	-110	14 h 18 m	Show
5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset. Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18. The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo.
02-04-12	Middle Tenn. St. v. Denver -1.5		60-75	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2) on Denver -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Denver to know the target off MTSU's back in its return home Saturday. Denver is a terrific 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We also can't ignore the fact that coach Joe Scott's clubs are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). Denver doesn't take many bad shots and shoots a high percentage because of it. This bodes well for us considering MTSU is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games versus very good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more. The Blue Raiders have lost to these foes by an average score of 77.1 to 62.7. Take Denver.
02-04-12	Arkansas v. LSU -3.5		65-71	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
4* SEC Game of the Week on LSU -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to arguably the 3 best teams in the SEC (Florida, Mississippi St., Kentucky), expect LSU to take out its frustrations on an Arkansas squad that is 0-6 away from home on the season. The Razorbacks haven't just lost those 6 games, they've lost them by a whopping 12.4 points on average. Arkansas' road struggles extend further back than this season. The Razorbacks are 2-12 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 15-37 ATS in their last 52 road games and 24-53-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog. Arkansas' recent 82-point effort in a win over Vandy suggests a letdown as well. It was the first time the Razors broke the 70-point mark in 7 games, and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is also of the utmost importance to note that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll lay the points.
02-03-12	Memphis Grizzlies +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		94-101	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies +9 After narrow losses of 3 and 5 points in the season's first 2 meetings, Memphis won't be lacking any confidence as it looks to spoil Oklahoma City's 5-game home winning streak. The Grizzlies have regained their swagger with back-to-back wins over solid Denver and Atlanta squads, and I expect no letdown against a team they want badly. This will be Memphis' 5th game in 7 days, but history tells us not to be concerned. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road win by 10 points or more, a team playing their 5th game in 7 days, are 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Memphis is an incredible 20-4 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 3.8 points. We'll take the points.
02-03-12	Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5	Top	89-106	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Raptors -4.5 Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight. The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points. The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1. In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto.
02-02-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +3.5		92-95	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Kings +3.5 Back home, hungry to snap a 5-game losing streak, and further fueled by a pair of losses in Portland this season, look for the Kings to take care of business tonight. The Blazers are not the same team on the road, where they are 3-8 SU and ATS this season. Dating back to last season, the Trail Blazers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Kings have played well in their last 2 games, losing at both Utah and Golden State by 3 points. Expect their strong play to continue tonight at home, where I like their chances of pulling the upset.
02-02-12	Arizona St v. Stanford -14.5	Top	44-68	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Stanford -14.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses on the road, expect Stanford to roll in its return home tonight. Arizona State has really struggled on the road in Pac-12 play where it has losses of 17, 17, 15 and 21 to Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Utah respectively. The Sun Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. In addition, ASU is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Overs this season, 0-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season and 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Stanford is 11-1 on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 14.9 points. I like it to roll by 20-plus in this motivated spot against a poor road team. We'll lay the points.
02-02-12	Nebraska v. Northwestern -6.5		74-84	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN2) on Northwestern -6.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, expect Northwestern to take care of business at home tonight. The Wildcats are 8-3 at home, where they are winning by an average of 8.4 points. They have a 7-point home win over Michigan State, who defeated Nebraska by 13 points in Lincoln. The road has not been kind to Nebraska under the watch of Doc Sadler. The Huskers are just 22-38 ATS in road lined games with him at the helm, losing them by an average of 8.2 points. While Northwestern's rebounding has been an issue at times this season, we shouldn't worry here. That's because Nebraska is 0-8 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by their opponents by 4 or more per game under Sadler. The Cornhuskers are also 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. It must also be mentioned that Northwestern is 9-2 ATS under coach Carmody in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less. We'll lay the number.
02-01-12	St. Bonaventure v. St. Louis -10.5		62-86	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
4* NCAAB Blowout on St. Louis -10.5 After a big win at Xavier last Wednesday, St. Louis endured a letdown Saturday at UMass and was handed a 72-59 defeat. Motivated by that loss, and back home where they have been nearly unstoppable, expect the Billikens to take care of business tonight. St. Louis is 10-1 at home this season (6-1 ATS in home lined games) where it is winning by an average of 20.6 points. And, the Billikens will draw further motivation from St. Bonaventure being ahead of them in the standings and the Bonnies winning the most recent meeting last February. The fact St. Bonaventure has a losing road record is significant because the Billikens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. St. Louis is the more talented team, and I won't hesitate to lay the points in this extremely motivated spot.
02-01-12	Toronto Raptors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics	Top	64-100	Loss	-105	9 h 3 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +9.5 Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening. The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Toronto and the points.
01-31-12	New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers	Top	99-106	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Nets +9.5 The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.
01-31-12	Michigan State v. Illinois +2.5		41-42	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN) on Illinois +2.5 Motivated by 3 straight narrow defeats, expect Illinois to come out on top tonight at home, where it is 11-1 on the season. Michigan State is a quality team but hasn't looked nearly as dominant away from home, where it has lost its last 2 to Northwestern and Michigan. Illinois' last 3 losses have come by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss (at Minnesota) came in OT. The fact Illinois played Missouri to a 4-point game and defeated Ohio State (2 of the best teams in the country) tells me it can certainly win tonight's contest. Illinois has won its last 2 SU and ATS at home in this series. It is also 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home against the Spartans. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings with Illinois. Lastly, Illinois is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses against conference rivals. The Illini have won by an average score of 68.3 to 57.8 in this situation. Take Illinois.
01-30-12	New Orleans Hornets +13 v. Miami Heat		95-109	Loss	-110	10 h 11 m	Show
3* NBA Super System Smoker on Hornets +13 It's going to be tough for the Heat to get up for this game following such a big win over the Bulls Sunday. The Hornets, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for the defending Eastern Conference Champs, especially following Sunday's disappointing performance against the Hawks. History is on our side here as plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, provided they are a very good team that outscores their opponents by 6 or more points/game and are coming off a win by 6 points or less, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 12.0 points but are only winning by an average of 9.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Heat are just 11-23 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points under coach Spoelstra. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. The Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or more points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Hornets are also 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 in this series and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami. Take the points.
01-30-12	Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers	Top	69-74	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Magic +7.5 Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia. In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.
01-30-12	Pittsburgh v. West Virginia -6		72-66	Loss	-110	9 h 24 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on West Virginia -6 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and further fueled by a 3-game losing Streak to Pitt, expect the Mountaineers to take care of business at home tonight. This is a good situation for WVU considering plays on a favorite off a close road loss by 3 points or less, playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 73-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 5.5 points but are winning by an average of 8.5. It is also worth noting that WVU is 15-5 ATS off a road loss to a conference rival under coach Huggins. It's winning by an average of 12.8 points in this situation. The Mountaineers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll lay the points.
01-29-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets -6		109-105	Loss	-108	12 h 44 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6 The Clippers have struggled away from home as one might expect considering all their new pieces. Since a season-opening win at Golden State, they've lost 4 straight on the road by an average of 16.8 points. Denver has won 6 in a row and is 7-2 at home, where it has an impressive 11-point win over the mighty Miami Heat. If it can conquer the Heat by double digits, it can certainly cover this number. The Nuggets have been a fantastic investment at 14-5 SU and ATS on the season. Looking back, they are 37-12-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They're 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games and 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Clippers are 21-50 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.
01-29-12	Manhattan v. Niagara +3		87-70	Loss	-103	8 h 26 m	Show
4* Sunday NCAAB BEST BET on Niagara +3 Off back-to-back defeats, with one of those defeats being a 7-point setback at Manhattan, Niagara will be lacking no motivation this afternoon. It will be lacking no confidence either. The Purple Eagles are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Jaspers, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home during this span where they have won by 7, 24, 19, 17 and 11 points for an average winning margin of 15.6 points. Niagara has quietly covered the spread in 7 of its last 9 games, and the fact it is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Purple Eagles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaspers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Niagara.
01-28-12	Columbia v. Cornell -3.5		60-65	Win	100	12 h 60 m	Show
3* Saturday Night SMASH on Cornell -3.5 Cornell is better than its 6-11 record leads you to believe. It's played 9 of its first 17 games on the road and has tackled pretty challenging schedule with 3 games against teams from major conferences. Columbia has played just 7 true road games and only one school from a major conference. The Lions won the season's first meeting by 5 points at home a week ago, but I expect the Big Red to have their revenge. Cornell is 6-2 at home this season and has won 10 of its last 14 at home in this series. The Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Ivy League, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Big Red are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS loss. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Lay the points.
01-28-12	San Diego St v. Colorado St +3		60-77	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
4* NCAAB Upset of the Day on Colorado State +3 Off back-to-back losses on the road, expect the Colorado State Rams to be upset-minded when they take the floor at home this afternoon. San Diego State has won 9 straight in the series, but the Rams have been no pushover lately, playing the Aztecs to within 1 and 2 points in 2 of the last 3 meetings. The Rams lost by just 2 points in last season's home meeting against a better San Diego State team than they'll see today. Colorado State has been money when the line is tight, going 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It's also a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 9-1 at home this season, and I believe they have what it takes to end SDSU's 11-game winning streak.
01-28-12	Wofford v. College of Charleston -5	Top	68-59	Loss	-110	8 h 39 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Charleston -5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses and a 17-point loss at Wofford on Jan. 5, expect an inspired effort from College of Charleston this afternoon. The Cougars have won 9 in a row at home in this series with those 9 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. Besides home-court advantage, revenge is another key angle. Consider that Charleston is 11-3 ATS all-time under coach Cremins when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents. The Cougars have won these games by an average of 7.7 points. Take Charleston.
01-27-12	Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 199	Top	81-96	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199 Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher. Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury. Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.
01-27-12	New York Knicks +11 v. Miami Heat		89-99	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Knicks +11 The season has not started out the way the Knicks had envisioned, but a win over the Heat would go a long way toward righting the ship. I expect them to give Miami a game as they try to make a major statement with a win. Historically speaking, this is a good spot to back the Knicks. Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 and an extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days - are 47-20 ATS since 1996. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are an incredible 26-10 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of last season. Plus, they are a perfect 14-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days under coach D'Antoni. We'll take the points. *Note: Carmelo Anthony is out tonight but this is still a play. The Knicks are showing value as a double-digit dog as teams often elevate their play in the absence of a star.
01-26-12	Washington v. Arizona St +8	Top	60-54	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Arizona State +8 Arizona State has played 10 home games this season and has either won or lost by 8 points or less in all but one of them. The exception was a 9-point loss to Oregon. Washington has played 6 games away from home. It's 1-5 in those games and its lone win came by just 4 points against a Utah team with a worse overall record than the Sun Devils. The fact ASU is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses is extremely important. Consider that the Sun Devils are 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Sendek after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more. They are winning outright by an average score of 64.4 to 62.5 in this situation. It is also important to note that the Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog while the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. We'll take the points.
01-26-12	Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -8		91-83	Loss	-110	10 h 21 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -8 This game is all about revenge for the Magic, who were embarrassed with a 31-point loss in Boston Monday. The Magic showed their disgust with that performance Tuesday when they crushed Indiana 102-83. Now, they get a chance to pay back the Celtics, and I don't expect them to squander the opportunity. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home win or 20 points or more, are 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.9 points. It is also worth noting that Boston is just 1-10 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Plus, the home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series. We'll lay the points.
01-25-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5	Top	93-101	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5 The Warriors will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back heartbreaking losses at home by 3 points and 1 point respectively. A motivated effort should translate into a comfortable win versus a Portland squad that has lost 5 of its last 7 on the road and is playing its 3rd game in as many days. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Golden State. We'll lay the points.
01-25-12	Delaware v. Northeastern -5.5	Top	61-62	Loss	-110	9 h 20 m	Show
5* Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year on Northeastern -5.5 This is a game Northeastern has had circled since last season when it lost both regular season meetings with Delaware as well as a heart-breaking 2-point loss in the conference tournament. 4 starters return from last year's squad so you can bet the Huskies will be hungry. Delaware has struggled away from home to the tune of 2-7. It has also struggled at Northeastern, where it has lost 5 of the last 6 meetings. In addition, history suggests this is not the time to get behind Delaware. Consider that the Hens are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Ross when checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Delaware is losing by an average of 13.7 points in this situation. Lay the points.
01-25-12	Dayton v. St. Joseph's -4		63-77	Win	100	9 h 13 m	Show
4* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on St. Joseph's -4 St. Joe's finally returns home after 3 straight on the road, and it will be extremely hungry after going winless in those games. The Hawks will also be fueled by consecutive losses in this series. St. Joe's has been one tough cookie at home, where it is 8-1 with an average winning margin of 12.9 points. And these wins haven't just come against slouches. The Hawks have an impressive 9-point win against 15th-ranked Creighton and a 16-point victory over a Villanova team with Big East talent. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take St. Joseph's.
01-24-12	Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers		102-83	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Magic +3.5 Orlando will relish the opportunity to get right back on the court tonight after setting franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston Monday. It hasn't been wise to doubt Stan Van Gundy's teams after a blowout loss of 20 points or more as they are 12-2 ATS all-time in these spots with an average winning margin of 6.2 points. Plus, the Pacers have had no answer for Dwight Howard and company. Orlando has won 5 in a row against Indiana by an average of 13.6 points. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take the points.
01-24-12	Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -8.5	Top	47-65	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Vanderbilt -8.5 Vandy saw its 8-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend with a 1-point loss to Mississippi State. Motivated by that defeat, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Tennessee, expect the Commodores to bounce back in a big way. Prior to Saturday's loss, Vandy had won its first 4 conference contests over Auburn, S. Carolina, Georgia and Alabama by 30, 10, 11 and 10 points respectively. If you were wondering how odds makers could possibly be giving Tennessee this many points, now you know. Plus, the Vols are 0-5 in true road games this season. The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Commodores are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. We'll lay the number.
01-23-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5	Top	91-90	Loss	-105	13 h 13 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Warriors -1.5 Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight. Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points. The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two. The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State.
01-23-12	Iona v. Siena +9.5		62-65	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB SMASH on Siena +9.5 Back home, motivated by consecutive losses on the road and out to avenge an embarrassing 36-point defeat to Iona earlier this month, expect an inspired effort from Siena to lead to a cover tonight. Home court has been kind to the Saints in this series. In fact, they've won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 at home against the Gaels. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 15 points or more. Also, the Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Air Force +14.5 v. San Diego St	Top	44-57	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Air Force +14.5 This is a major letdown spot for San Diego State following a big win at New Mexico. Air Force has played the Aztecs to 13 and 12-point games in the last 2 meetings, and I believe it keeps this one even closer. The Falcons are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as a dog of 13.0 or more points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. The Falcons have proven themselves to be an outstanding wager against elite competition, going 10-1 ATS in road games when matched up against top-level teams (Win Pct. > 80%) under coach Reynolds. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Syracuse v. Notre Dame +9		58-67	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on Notre Dame +9 The Irish have one of the best home courts in the country. They have won 29 of their last 30 at home with that loss coming last Saturday to UConn. You can bet the Irish will be jacked up to face the No. 1 team in the land, and to do so at home, where they haven
01-21-12	Alabama +11 v. Kentucky		71-77	Win	100	4 h 26 m	Show
4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Alabama +11 Kentucky has been overvalued all season, as evidenced by its 5-13 ATS mark in lined games, and that remains the case here. The Wildcats have especially been overvalued following a big win, checking in at just 2-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have also been extremely overvalued on Saturday's, when they receive the most betting attention. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. They are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Bama defeated Kentucky in last year's regular-season meeting, and I like it to give the Wildcats all they want and more here.
01-20-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5	Top	76-90	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on 76ers -5.5 Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points.
01-20-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State +3.5		66-68	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB Friday Night SMASH on Youngstown State +3.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 4-game losing streak against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, expect Youngstown State to play inspired basketball at home tonight. Wisconsin-Milwaukee's numbers drop off on the road as it is averaging 5.0 less points and allowing 4.3 more points away from home. This doesn't bode well for the Panthers, considering Youngstown State is a strong 5-1 at home this season. The Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road and the lone win during this stretch came by just 2 points. The Panthers are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Penguins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. It's losing these contests by an average score of 63.4 to 51.4. Take the points.
01-19-12	Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Utah Jazz		94-91	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Mavericks +2.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to get back in the win column tonight against a team they have dominated. The Mavs went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Utah last season with wins of 12, 6, 19 and 17 points. The Mavericks have been a terrific investment at 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog, including 22-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less during this span. They have won these games outright on average by a score of 95.6 to 94.5. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 20-6 ATS in road games following an upset loss under coach Carlisle. It has responded to win by an average score of 102 to 95.5 in this situation. Take the Mavs.
01-19-12	UCLA v. Oregon State -2		84-87	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
3* Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon State -2 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and a 13-game losing streak to UCLA, expect Oregon State to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a good spot for the Beavers, considering they are 13-5 ATS all-time under coach Robinson after 3 or more consecutive losses. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 77.5 to 64. The Beavers are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Oregon State.

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