4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
The Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA and quite possibly the worst team ever. They need a win in one of their final three games to avoid the NBA's all-time worst winning percentage. With Orlando and New York up next, this is their best chance to avoid falling into the history books for all the wrong reasons. I expect Charlotte to go after this game hard.

Fading Washington as a favorite has been a very strong play this season. According to the closing line, the Wizards have been favored 10 times this season going 3-7 ATS in those games, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6. In other words, this is not a team that can be trusted laying points, especially this many.

The Wizards have won 3 in a row with 2 of those wins coming against the Bulls and Heat but it should be noted that Deng and Rose weren't in the lineup for the Bulls and Bosh and James didn't suit up for the Heat (Wade only played 2 minutes before leaving with an injury).

We'll take the points.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Nuggets Under 203.5
A much better defensive effort from the Magic will keep this one under the number.

After giving up triple-digits for a third straight game, coach Van Gundy has called out his team. "We just cannot guard," Van Gundy said. "I don't think it is that our guys are not trying, I don't know what it is, but we cannot guard anyone. We can't guard anyone ... Our defense is disturbing to say the least."

Orlando is a perfect 9-0 under dating back to the start of last season after allowing 110 points or more in its last game. We have seen just 185.5 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the under is 8-3 in the Magic's last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-2 in the Nuggets' last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Having already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers can sit back and relax. The 76ers, meanwhile, should play with a greater sense of urgency as they try to avoid a potentially crucial matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday. With a win and a Milwaukee loss to New Jersey, Philly would clinch the final playoff spot in the East.

Indiana is receiving plenty of recognition for its play this month, which bodes well for us as the books know which team the public will be backing. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, which is significant because they are only 1-12 ATS this season following covers in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 96.4 to 92.2 in this situation.

The 76ers have either won or played Indiana to within 5 points in 4 of the last 6 meetings. I expect the 76ers to be the more desperate team. Take the points.

4* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavericks -12
The defending NBA champs need just one win to clinch a playoff spot. With this being their last home game and with dates against playoff teams Chicago and Atlanta on deck, you can bet they'll go after this game hard.

The Warriors are depleted by injuries and have lost 6 straight and 13 of their last 15 as a result. Their last 6 defeats have come by an average of 16.2 points.

The Mavs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Warriors with 6 of those wins coming by 13 points or more and 5 coming by 20 points or more. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (TNT) on Suns -2
Sitting a half game behind Utah for the eighth and final playoff spot, the Suns will leave it all on the floor tonight.

Phoenix lost to Oklahoma City last night, but is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Suns have won 4 of the last 5 in the series overall and 9 in a row at home. We'll bet the Suns.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5.5
Two-and-a-half games out of the 8th spot, the Bucks can't afford another loss. We'll get behind this desperate team catching points tonight.

The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 4 trips to Indiana with the lone loss in this stretch coming by a single point.

The Pacers have been playing well, but recent history tells us this is the time to fade them. After all, they are 0-12 ATS this season after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 95.3 to 90.1 in this situation. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -3
The Clippers have won 4 in a row and 12 of 14, have a pair of wins over the Thunder in their last 4 games, have won 2 of 3 versus Denver this season and they're getting 3 points? The books clearly want the money on the Clipps. We won't give in.

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 64-45 ATS under coach Karl in home games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Nugs have won by an average of 7.4 points in this situation.

The Clippers blew out OKC 92-77 in their last game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Expect this trend to continue. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 111-94 loss to Indiana last month, expect the 76ers to take care of business at home tonight.

This is Philly's last home game of the season, a game it desperately needs as it's fading fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The 76ers opened as a 3.5-point favorite at most books, which is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

It is also worth noting that Philly is 26-15 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Pacers have covered the spread in 3 straight but are only 8-21 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. They've lost by an average of 5.1 points in this spot.

Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll lay the points with the home team tonight.

4* NBA SMASH on Rockets -4.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 15-point loss to Denver Sunday, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong here.

The Rockets know they can't afford another defeat as they try to hold on to the last playoff slot in the West.

Houston has been very strong at home this season. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss this season. In addition, it is 8-0 ATS all-time under coach McHale when playing the second game of a back-to-back at home. It has won these games by an average of 8.1 points.

The Nuggets are a lousy 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +8.5
Motivated by Saturday's loss to Boston and further fueled by losses to Miami in each of the season's first two meetings, including an embarrassing 30-point loss last month, expect the Nets to save face with a strong performance tonight.

Saturday we won with the T-Wolves as we expected them to treat their matchup with the Thunder like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The same strategy paid off Sunday as the Pistons left it all on the floor against the Bulls. We'll stick with this strategy here.

The Nets may not get up for another game this season, but they'll get up for this one. The Heat, meanwhile, will have a difficult time putting the Nets away by double digits after playing a game Sunday. The Heat are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

This is the biggest game remaining on New Jersey's schedule, and I expect them to go after it hard. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons +9.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 113-97 home loss to Milwaukee last game, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first 3 meetings with Chicago, expect the Pistons to show up in a big way here.

This is the biggest game remaining on Detroit's schedule, and similar to Minnesota (who got up for OKC Saturday) it will treat it like Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Friday's loss to Milwaukee is significant because the Pistons are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 104.6 to 99.2 in this situation. Also, the Pistons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +11
Motivated by 8 straight defeats and 11 consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Timberwolves to play some inspired basketball at home tonight.

An injury to Ricky Rubio derailed Minnesota's playoff hopes and now it is dealing with an injury to Kevin Love. Still, the T-Wolves have enough fire power with guys like Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jose Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph to cover this number. With the postseason out of the question, this game will be Minnesota's Super Bowl (so to speak).

The Thunder, meanwhile, will be much more concerned about their next opponent, the Clippers, who defeated them Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, OKC has won 11 straight in the series. However, only 1 of those wins has come by more than 11 points. In addition, Minnesota has either won or lost to the Sonics/Thunder by fewer than 11 points in 8 straight home meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bucks -4.5
The Bucks need a win tonight for any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a loss to Detroit in the most recent meeting, expect Milwaukee to take care of business here.

Right away I love the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a home defeat and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been favored by an average of 5.5 points and have won by an average of 7.2.

In addition, Milwaukee is 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Pistons recorded a 24-point win at Charlotte last night to conclude a 7-day road trip. This is significant because they are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs basically conceded defeat Monday against the Jazz with coach Pop thinking it was more important for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli to get rest. The trio was back in action last night but clearly didn't take the Bryant-less Lakers as seriously as they should have. Following that embarrassing loss, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong against a team they have owned this season.

The Spurs have clearly been motivated against the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They have won each of this season's three meetings by an average of 9.3 points, winning the lone home meeting by 13.

History is on our side here when you consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - a good offensive team (scoring 98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (scoring 92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less - are 40-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.3 points on average and have won by 11.6 on average. This system is 20-3 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Spurs are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.

The Grizzlies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Celtics following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost by 3 at home to the C's last month.

History tells us that Boston's offensive outburst last night sets it up for failure here as it is just 1-11 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It has only won these games by an average of 1.8 points.

It's also worth noting that the C's are 11-25 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It's losing by an average of 0.4 points in these games.

The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Hawks have won 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series, and I like their chances of winning another against Boston tonight.

4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies -5.5
After losing the season's first 2 meetings in Phoenix, expect the Grizzlies to have their revenge at home tonight. They have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Suns with those wins coming by 17, 7 and 10 points.

Memphis is 23-12 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 52-31 ATS when playing with double revenge under coach Hollins.

I like Memphis tonight because it is the superior defensive squad. It has held 10 straight opponents under the century mark and it has held its last 3 under 90 points. It only gave up 85 to the Clippers last game and that's significant because it is 8-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season. It has won by an average of 8.6 points in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers -5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 7-point loss to New Jersey in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good team outscoring its opponents by 3 points per game or more, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more - are 62-31 ATS since 1996. Team fitting into this system, which is 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons and 16-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3.

Philly has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those losses have come to Miami, Orlando and Boston. Consider that it is 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, defeating these foes by an average of 11.9 points. It is also 13-4 ATS versus poor teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by 3 points per game or more this season. It has defeated these foes by an average of 12.9 points.

The 76ers are 18-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Nets. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 14.2 points.

The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Trail Blazers -3.5
Off an embarrassing loss at Milwaukee and out to avenge a pair of defeats to Houston, expect the Blazers to bounce back strong at home tonight.

Portland is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games when out for revenge for 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 98.0 to 90.8 in this situation.

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the number.

4* NBA Super System Smoker on Nuggets -8
Saturday's 112-97 loss at Golden State puts the Nuggets in an extremely profitable situation tonight. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, and checking in off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 28-9 (76%) ATS the last 5 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The Nuggets have won 6 of their last 7 at home in this series with those 6 wins coming by an average of 15.0 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -4
The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 9 games with wins over the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. Keep in mind that these 3 keys wins came by 6, 6 and 15 points respectively. Also, keep in mind that these 3 wins came on the road.

At home, where the Grizzlies are 19-7 on the season, I expect them to continue their strong play against the Clippers.

The Clippers have won the season's first 2 meetings, but both of those came in LA. Rest assured, things will go much differently tonight. The Grizzlies are 51-31 ATS in their last 82 games when playing with double revenge. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the number.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +4
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and eager to stay in the Atlantic division race, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a team they have dominated this season.

Philly has won each of this season's meetings with Boston by 32 and 13 points respectively. It is also worth noting that it has either won or lost by 4 points or less in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Both teams played yesterday, but Philly should be the fresher team as it had 2 days off prior to last night's contest. Boston, meanwhile, will be playing its 4th game in 5 days. The Celtics are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The fact Boston enters off a double-digit win is also significant because it is just 24-49-2 ATS in its last 75 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and we'll grab the points with them here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Celtics +2
This is a major letdown spot for Indiana, which is playing its second game in as many nights following a big win over the Thunder. This is a major bounce back spot for Boston, however, following back-to-back losses and getting called out by coach Doc Rivers following Thursday's loss to Chicago.

"I had to use two timeouts ... to remind us that we are actually having an NBA game tonight," Rivers said. "I thought this was the worst loss for us this year the way we approached the game."

I fully expect this veteran squad to respond.

The fact Boston has had a day to gear up is huge considering it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Also, Indiana is 0-9 ATS this season after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It is losing by an average score of 95.8 to 89.1 in this situation.

Boston will have fresher legs and it will be the hungrier side tonight. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Thunder -155
Motivated by losing consecutive games for just the 2nd time all season, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong tonight.

Following back-to-back defeats on Jan. 2-3, the Thunder rebounded with a 15-point win over Houston. I expect them to take care of business again versus an Indiana squad they have defeated by 24 and 4 in the last 2 meetings.

I like the Thunder on the point spread but love them on the money line at this price. OKC is 24-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.8 to 99.4 in this situation. It is also 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 102.3 to 95.4 in this situation.

Indiana is 11-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-20 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.

The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. We'll take the Thunder.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +7.5
Fueled by 3 consecutive defeats and a 2-point home loss to Detroit on Mar. 26, expect the Wizards to give the Pistons a game tonight.

Washington blew a 13-point lead in the Mar. 26 meeting and was defeated on a Rodney Stuckey 20-foot jumper with 0.2 seconds remaining. That can't be sitting well with the Wizards, who won 98-77 in Detroit in the season's first meeting. In fact, Washington has either won or lost by fewer than tonight's posted spread in 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Washington's defense hasn't been very good in its last 2 games, but recent history says it will do something about that tonight. The Wiz are 13-3 ATS after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are only losing these games by an average of 0.1 points.

It is also important to note that the Pistons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Mavericks -6
Motivated by Monday's ugly 19-point home loss to the Clippers, expect the defending NBA champs to bounce back strong versus a fatigued Memphis squad playing its 3rd game in as many days.

The fact Dallas is coming off an embarrassing loss and lost in Memphis by 11 on Feb. 29 sets up a strong system. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided the "play on" team is also coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 27-8 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Grizzlies are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mavericks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Mavs.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by defeats in each of the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana, expect the Wizards to give the Pacers all they want and more here.

Indiana just played last night and used a lot of energy while mounting a late comeback. Riding high from than win, and with OKC on deck, I expect a bit of a letdown from the Pacers.

The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing without a day of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Wizards, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

It is also worth noting that the home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors +7.5
Hungry to end a 5-game skid and to avoid being swept by Memphis, expect the Warriors to play some inspired ball tonight.

Off last night's upset win over the West-best Thunder, and with games against defending champion Dallas and reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami up next, I'm expecting a letdown from the Grizzlies here.

The losses have started to pile up for the Warriors, but only one defeat during their current losing streak has come by more than 8 points. It is also worth noting that Golden State is 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Jackson in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Warriors have actually won by an average score of 102.3 to 100.6 in this situation.

In addition, the Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Golden State.

4* NCAA Championship SMASH on Kansas +6.5
Kentucky has won each of its NCAA Tournament games by at least 8 points and defeated the Jayhawks by 10 points as a 6.5-point favorite earlier this season. Yet, the Wildcats are just laying 6.5 points here. The books clearly want the Kentucky-loving public laying those points because they believe Kansas can take the Wildcats right down to the wire. I agree entirely.

First of all, the Jayhawks shot just 33.9% from the field in the first meeting. They won't shoot that poorly here. They aren't supposed to win. All the pressure is on Kentucky, and that allows Kansas to play free and easy.

The Kansas defense has been unbelievable in this tournament. It has held its five foes to 59.2 points on just 35.5% shooting. Kentucky's "D" hasn't been nearly that good. Its foes have scored 71.6 points on 41.5% shooting in the dance.

Kentucky has been explosive offensively, averaging 84.2 points in the tourney. So the fact odds makers have set a total of 138, 9.5 points less than the number set for the first meeting, tells us they are expecting Kansas' defense to slow down the Wildcats.

The total is significant because Kansas is 11-4 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Kentucky is 6-13 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.

It is also significant that Kansas is coming off an upset win because coach Self's teams are 14-4 ATS off an upset win since 1997. His teams have won by an average score of 77.9 to 65.4 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are only 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8
This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Chicago and have a big game in Miami up next. Meanwhile, this is a highly motivated spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost each of the season's first three meetings with OKC.

Memphis is a phenomenal 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis has only lost by an average of 1.1 points in this situation.

The Grizzlies are also on a 52-34 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have won by an average score of 98.6 to 95.6 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites in the second game of a back-to-back in April are 165-105 (61.1%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.7. This system is 21-10 (67.7% the last 3 seasons.

The Thunder are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Magic -5.5
Checking in off back-to-back defeats, the Magic will be hungry to run up the score on the Nuggets this evening.

The Magic are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Prior to Friday's home loss to Dallas, Orlando had won 6 of its last 7 at home with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. Its home dominance of Denver also can't be ignored.

The Magic have won 13 of their last 14 at home in the series with those 13 wins coming by an average of 11.2 points.

It also doesn't bode well for Denver that it checks in off a SU win and cover. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 10.0 points.

We'll lay the points with the Magic as all signs point to a double-digit win.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 2-point loss to the Clippers last month, expect the Jazz to give L.A. all it wants and more tonight.

Both of these teams played last night and recent history favors the Jazz in this back-to-back spot. In fact, they Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest.

The Clippers have not proven they can be trusted laying points. They are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Clippers are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win while the Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.

Utah has played better ball than the Clippers this month and shouldn't be catching this many points. Take the Jazz.

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Ohio State -2.5
The Buckeyes lost to Kansas in Lawrence by 11 points back in December, but Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. On a neutral floor and with Sullinger in the lineup, I fully expect the Buckeyes to have their revenge.

Consider that Ohio State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral court games when out for revenge for a same season loss. The Buckeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big Ten.

The fact Kansas enters off a cover actually bodes well for the Buckeyes. That's because KU is 5-12 ATS after a game in which it covered the spread this season, including 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in this situation.

Kansas has a few nice weapons (Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson) but Ohio State has more guys (Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft) that are capable of putting the team on their back. I expect Craft's defense on Taylor to be the key to a Buckeyes win and cover.

3* Final Four SMASH on Louisville +9
Louisville played Kentucky to a 7-point game Dec. 31 while holding the Wildcats to a season-low 29.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a better team than it was then, but so is Louisville.

In that contest, the Cards hounded the Kentucky guards and forced them into 21 turnovers. I expect Louisville's pressure defense to once again give the Wildcats problems.

Kentucky was dominant on the glass in the first meeting but the Cards still managed to cover the spread. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game - this season.

Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral floor games against non-conference foes this season and 8-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.

It is also worth noting that Louisville is 34-15 ATS all-time under coach Pitino when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.

All the pressure is on Kentucky here, and the Cards will draw plenty of confidence from having played the Wildcats tough earlier this season. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Hawks -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening.

The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points.

The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points.

The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals.

Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here.

Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points.

It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games.

With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight.

Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road.

Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight.

Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home.

This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night.

The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks.

4* NIT SMASH on Massachusetts +2.5
UMass is being undervalued here. The Minutemen have been underdogs in 5 straight games and are 4-1 in those contests with the only defeat being a half-point ATS loss to St. Bonaventure.

They have upset wins on the road over Mississippi State, Seton Hall and Drexel in this tournament. That resume is more impressive than the one Stanford enters with - home wins over Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada.

Stanford has almost been a dead fade when odds makers have projected them to be in a close game. Consider that the Cardinal are only 4-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these contests by an average of 3.4 points. The Cardinal are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take UMass.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1.

The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1.

The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +7
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight.

The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again.

4* Elite 8 SMASH on Baylor +8
Baylor has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role under coach Drew at 70-51 ATS. Look for the Baylor Bears to keep this one within the number Sunday.

The value clearly lies with Baylor here as it enters off a hard-fought win over Xavier in which it didn't cover the spread. Kentucky, meanwhile, has rolled in back-to-back wins and covers over Iowa State and Indiana. Those performances are sure to get the attention of the public and odds makers are well aware of that fact.

One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against Baylor following an ATS loss. That's because the Bears are on a 5-0 ATS run in this situation and have won these contests by an average 14.8 points. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Baylor has the size and athleticism to match up with Kentucky. Plus, it has been unfazed when playing in neutral court/road games this season, posting a 16-4 record. Bet Baylor.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston.

Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Syracuse +3
The value clearly lies with Syracuse here. The Orange barely escaped Wisconsin while the Buckeyes won rather easily against Cincinnati. Naturally, the public is jumping on the Buckeyes following that performance. We won't do the same.

First of all, Ohio State split with Wisconsin this season, losing by 3 points and winning by 6. With this in mind, we can make the claim that the Buckeyes aren't much better than the Badgers.

Secondly, Wisconsin needed 14 3-point makes to stick with the Orange. I don't see Ohio State making half that many. The Buckeyes only average 6 per game on 34.8% shooting. The Orange will make sure Ohio State's front line doesn't beat them, and I don't think the Buckeyes can make enough 3's to get the job done.

Syracuse is 25-11 ATS all-time under coach Boeheim as a neutral court underdog or pickem. It has won these games by an average score of 73.4 to 72.5.

The Orange are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

4* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -1
One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Gators when odds makers anticipate a close game. That's because they are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 71.9 to 66.2.

Louisville plays good defense, but it won't be able to keep Florida from getting open 3-point looks in transition. Florida's guards are just too good. The Gators are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging 10 makes per game while shooting them at a 38% clip. I expect Florida's edge from beyond the arc to be the difference here.

The Gators are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Florida.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas -8
Odds makers clearly want the money on NC State by installing the red-hot Wolfpack as nearly a double-digit dog. We won't take the bait. Kansas is the more talented team, and it will be very focused here after getting a scare by Purdue. The Jayhawks will draw further motivation from recent shortcomings. It was knocked out of last year's Big Dance by VCU and it hasn't forgotten. I expect that loss to be the driving force before a decisive victory by the Jayhawks tonight.

Taking Kansas following a game in which it failed to cover the spread has produced an 11-4 ATS mark this season. The Jayhawks, who have won by an average score of 72.8 to 60.7 in this situation, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Kansas is also an impressive 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral floor games after a close win by 3 points or less. It has won by an average score of 78.1 to 64.2 in this situation.

NC State is solid defensively, but KU is 13-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The Jayhawks have defeated these clubs by an average score of 74.6 to 57.6.

NC State, meanwhile, is just 4-12 ATS versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 66.4. Take Kansas and best of luck.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Ohio +10.5
UNC is likely Kendall Marshall, and he won't be himself even if he does try to play. Without Marshall, the Tar Heels find themselves at a disadvantage against an Ohio squad that is forcing more than 17 turnovers a game and ranks fourth in the country in steals (9.3). Without Marshall, I expect UNC to have some turnover issues tonight.

Ohio has been taking excellent care of the rock and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests after 3 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Mid-American Conference.

Ohio played Louisville to a 5-point on the road earlier this season and has upset a pair of power conference teams in the first two rounds of this tournament.

UNC has the superior front court, but I expect those players won't have as many good looks without Marshall at full strength. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Raptors +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight.

Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot.

The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* (TBS) on Marquette -2
After back-to-back blowout wins over double-digit seeds, I expect Florida to be in for a rude awakening as it takes a major step up in competition tonight. The Golden Eagles were tested by Murray State last time out, so I fully expect them to be on their game.

With the total currently at 146.5, odds makers are expecting some points to be scored in this contest. History suggests this high number indicates the odds are in Marquette's favor. Consider that Marquette is 8-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997. It has won these games by an average score of 78.9 to 64.1.

In addition, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Florida isn't the same team without Chandler Parsons, and that has been apparent all season. I'm not going to let what they've done against two inferior teams in the Big Dance change my opinion.

The Golden Eagles are on a mission to get to the Elite 8 after losing in the Sweet 16 last year. We'll lay the points.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on Cincinnati +7.5
It's hard not to like the Bearcats catching this many points considering they are 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Ohio State is just 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral court games on the year.

The Bearcats have been a terrific investment down the stretch at 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in road/neutral floor games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Cats have won these contests by an average score of 66.4 to 64.2.

It is also worth noting that the Buckeyes are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Ohio State was pushed to the limit by Gonzaga, and now it is up against an even more physical team. These points should come in handy in what is expected to be a defensive-minded game.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Louisville +5
I think Louisville is getting too many points given how well it is playing and with one of the best in the business on the sidelines (coach Pitino).

Michigan State only defeated St. Louis by 4 points despite shooting 54.3% from the field and holding the Billikens to 35.3% shooting. That's not a good sign.

Louisville is 11-4 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. It has won these games by an average score of 63.9 to 62.3. It is also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average score of 64.5 to 56.3.

The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Spartans are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Raptors +7.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a 13-point loss in the season's first meeting, expect the Raptors to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight.

Revenge has been a great angle to play with the Raptors, who are 13-4 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors have actually won by an average score of 101.3 to 95.6 in this situation.

The Raptors have been extremely undervalued against winning teams and Chicago couldn't be more overvalued here following an 85-59 win over Orlando without Derrick Rose on the floor. The Raptors are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Middle Tennessee State -3
MTSU has won 13 in a row at home with all of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The fact that this is just MTSU's 2nd game in 8 days also bodes well for us because the Blue Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have won by an average score of 76.5 to 58.5 in this situation.

It also can't be ignored that MTSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 70.9 to 61.8.

The Blue Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll back them laying a small number tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and having had 2 days to prepare, expect the Pacers to take care of business tonight at home, where they are 13-6.

The home team has had the edge in this series, winning each of the past 4 meetings by an average of 15.8 points. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers have won 2 straight and 11 of their last 14 at home in this series.

In addition, the Clippers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Central division opponents and 0-7 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season. We'll lay the points.

4* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Drexel -6.5
After pulling off a pair of road upsets over Mississippi State and Seton Hall, I expect UMass to finally meet its match. Drexel is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 13.2 points.

UMass is solid defensively, holding its foes to 40.8% shooting for the season. However, Drexel is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when matched up against good defensive teams (holding opponents to 42% shooting or worse) after 15-plus games. The Dragons have defeated these teams by an average score of 70.0 to 54.6.

In addition, Drexel is 6-0 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game after 15-plus games. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.4 to 55.4.

It is also worth mentioning that UMass is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Kellogg when checking into a matchup after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Minutemen have lost these contests by an average score of 76.0 to 63.5. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Nuggets -4
The Nuggets will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge last month's two double-digit defeats to Dallas. Danilo Gallinari didn't play in either of those games, and I expect his presence to make a big difference for Denver in this one.

Gallinari is averaging 18.0 points on 47.2 percent shooting in his last three games, a good sign that he's back to being the player he was before injury. The Nuggets defeated the Mavs 115-93 in Dallas in the lone game he's played in the series this season.

The Mavs have really struggled on the road, where they have lost 7 in a row by an average of 9.4 points. We'll fade the Mavs on the road here.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +1.5
Motivated by back-to-back poor performance against Sacramento and Denver, expect Boston to take care of business tonight.

Boston has played a lot of games in not a lot of days but should benefit from having Sunday off while the Hawks were in action. Besides, road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, extremely tired team playing 9 or more games in 14 days, are 34-12 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hawks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Also, they are just 13-27 ATS all-time under coach Drew following 2 or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 96.2 to 92.9 in this situation.

The Hawks are very banged up. They were to get past Washington and Cleveland without being at full strength, but I don't think they'll be able to get past the Celtics. Bet Boston.

4* NIT *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Middle Tennessee State +5
MTSU wants this game badly as it has lost 8 in a row to Tennessee dating back to 1999. The Blue Raiders are a very good basketball team, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

These two played 5 like opponents this season. MTSU went 5-1 in those games while Tennessee went 4-3. In looking at like matchups against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, there is reason to believe the Blue Raiders can cover this number.

MTSU only lost at Vandy by 7 while Tennessee lost at Vandy by 18. Also, MTSU defeated Ole Miss by 12 at home. Tennessee defeated Ole Miss by just 13 at home.

The Blue Raiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. They have won these games by an average score of 70.9 to 61.5. We'll take the points.

4* Big Dance Sunday Night SMASH (TRU) on Xavier -3.5
It's going to be very tough for Lehigh to bounce back with the intensity it needs to beat Xavier following such an emotionally draining victory over Duke.

Xavier is way more talented than your average 10-seed. It was highly ranked early in the season and likely would have remained that way throughout had it not been for "the brawl", which sent it into a momentary tailspin. The Musketeers did not like going home early last year after making at least the Sweet 16 the 3 previous years. With Duke out of the picture, the Musketeers could be looking at another lengthy run.

Xavier is an awesome 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 NCAA tournament games, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by an embarrassing 121-94 loss at Atlanta in the season's first meeting, expect the Cavs to take care of business this afternoon.

Cleveland has had 3 full days to rest up and prepare for this game. Atlanta has only had one and will likely already be looking ahead to tomorrow's matchup with Boston.

Cleveland has been a phenomenal small dog at 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points.

4* Big Dance SMASH on Georgetown -4
A nice little run at the end of the season got NC State into the dance. Its momentum carried it to a win over San Diego State Friday, but I expect its run to end here.

This Georgetown team is one of the best in the country. It was very focused in its first game against Belmont as it was determined not to make another early exit. I think we'll see that same focus and intensity from the Hoyas here.

Georgetown has been a handful in non-conference play. It is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average score of 76.7 to 57.7. The Hoyas have especially been a strong investment when matched up against the ACC, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the conference. Take Georgetown.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -3
This is a letdown spot for the Spurs, who check in off a big win over the Thunder last night. It will be very difficult for this veteran team to match the intensity they played with last night, and I believe a failure to do so will get them beat.

Dallas is the reigning NBA champ, and it will be hungry for a statement win to show the NBA it is still a contender. The Mavs have quietly won 4 in a row and 8 of 10 at home. Their recent home dominance is significant because they are 18-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these games.

The Mavericks are also 31-14-2 ATS in their last 47 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the Mavs.

5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Indiana -6
It's been a great two-year run for VCU, but I believe it comes to an end here. The Rams have cleaned up against teams from mid-major conferences but are just 1-3 against schools from power conferences. They have losses of 15, 13 and 8 points to Seton Hall, Georgia Tech and Alabama and Indiana is far superior to these three.

Teams in the Big Ten have had some success against the Hoosiers but nobody else has this season. With Indiana's round of 64 win, it improved to 14-0 against non-conference foes. 8 of those games have been lined and the Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in those games, winning them by an average score of 83.7 to 59.9. 3 of these wins have come against NC State, Kentucky and Notre Dame. Lay the points.

4* NCAA Tournament SMASH on Vandy -1
Vandy is one of the most experienced teams in the tournament, and it is playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Commodores, who upset Kentucky in the SEC tourney final, look like a team capable of getting to the Final Four.

These two played one like opponent this season - Marquette. Vandy won at Marquette by 17 while Wiscy lost there by 7. While one game doesn't mean everything, it also doesn't mean nothing. I think Vandy is the better team and will prove that today.

The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Vandy is also 9-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus very good defensive teams with a shooting pct defense of <=39% this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus poor passing teams averaging <=12 assists/game this season and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after holding an opponent to 25 points or less in the first half last game this season. Take Vandy.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Timberwolves +8.5
This is a game the Timberwolves want badly after dropping the season's first 3 meetings with the Lakers. Motivated by those losses and a 6-point setback in Utah last night, expect the Wolves to give the Lakers a game.

Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as an underdog this season, 14-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Timberwolves are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings road meetings in this series.

The Lakers are 6-19 ATS in Friday night home games the last 3 seasons. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the T-Wolves in this highly motivated spot.

4* Friday Night Big Dance *TOP DOG* on Xavier +2.5
Xavier underachieved this season as a brawl with Cincinnati sent it into a tailspin. Notre Dame, meanwhile overachieved, exceeding expectations without Tim Abromaitis in the lineup.

However, the Musketeers have gotten their mojo back. They have won three of their last four with a big win over a very good St. Louis team in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Notre Dame has started to come back down to earth with losses in 3 of its last 5 games and the two wins against South Florida and Providence in this stretch were rather unimpressive.

These two played 3 like opponents this season and Xavier went 2-1 versus those teams while Notre Dame went 0-3. The Musketeers defeated Cincy and Georgia by double digits but lost to Gonzaga. The Irish lost to Cincy and Gonzaga by double digits and Georgia by 4 points.

It's hard not to like the Musketeers catching points in the Big Dance considering they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. They are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games overall.

The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 0-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Take Xavier.

4* Cinderella SMASH on NC State -2
This is not the same San Diego State squad that won two games in last year's Big Dance and this line certainly reflects that.

NC State is peaking at just the right time. It enters the Dance having won 4 of its last 5 with the lone loss being a 2-point setback to No. 1 seed North Carolina. SDSU struggled against the top teams in the MWC, losing its last 3 against New Mexico (twice) and UNLV and wasn't overly impressive in its non-conference slate. It lost to Baylor by 10 points and lost to Creighton by 2 points and was fortunate to beat USC, Long Beach State and Arizona. NC State played a tougher non-conference schedule and played in a better league - two things that will benefit it in this game.

The fact NC State finished strong bodes well for us because it is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Gottfried when playing away from home following 2 wins in its last 3 games. The Wolfpack have won by an average score of 73.7 to 62.0 in this situation.

It's also worth noting that NC State is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, and they get the call here.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Cincinnati -2
This Cincinnati team, which defeated Mizzou 78-63 in the first round last year, has the ability to go deep in this tournament. It would be a major upset in my mind if this young, inexperienced Texas squad moved on here, and I don't see it happening.

Texas is just 5-10 when playing away from home this season while Cincy is 9-6. The Bearcats also enter the dance playing better basketball with 9 wins in their last 12 games.

The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The fact Texas doesn't force many turnovers weighs heavily in our favor. That's because Cincy is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Bearcats.

5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wichita State -6
With VCU's 2011 Cinderella run fresh in everyone's mind, odds makers are trying to take advantage. They are begging bettors to take the points with last year's Final Four participant, but we won't fall for the trap.

This is not the same VCU team. The Rams returned just 2 starters from that squad, which is a big reason why they were crushed by double digits in road/neutral court games against non-tournament teams Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.

Wichita State has the look of a very dangerous team and should meet the challenge here. It is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home 15 or more games into the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Shockers are defeating these teams by an average of 11.0 points.

The Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Wichita State defeated No. 8 seed Creighton by 21 on the road. It also defeated No. 13 seed Dayton by 17 on the road. The Shockers also have an impressive 19-point win over No. 6 seed UNLV. Wichita State is capable of a blowout here. We'll lay the points.

4* Early Blowout on Vandy -5
Harvard, which is making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, is not accustomed to playing in such big games. Vandy, meanwhile, is making its 3rd straight NCAA tournament appearance and fifth in six years.

The Commodores enter the Dance win tons of momentum and confidence after defeating No. 1 overall seed Kentucky in the SEC tournament final, and there's no way they'll get caught overlooking Harvard after getting bounced in the first round the last two years.

The Crimson are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-7 ATS when playing away from home in March the last 3 seasons. Harvard is also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Amaker when playing with 7 or more days' rest.

Vandy is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also 8-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less this season and 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams that have outrebounded their opponents by 4 or more per game this season.

The Crimson are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lay the points.

4* Cinderella SMASH on Long Beach State +4
Long Beach State has the ability to make a Cinderella run in this year's Big Dance and that run starts with a win over New Mexico.

The 49ers have excelled against excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% or less from the floor. They are 8-1 ATS versus these teams this season, defeating them by an average score of 72.6 to 64.7. It is also worth noting that they are 21-9 ATS all-time under coach Monson versus such teams.

Long Beach State showed it is capable of playing with any team in the country when it played Kansas and North Carolina to within 8 and 6 points respectively on the road earlier this season. New Mexico played in a good league but hasn't been tested the same way

The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. We'll take the points as Long Beach State has a terrific opportunity to win this one outright.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts -5.5
Oral Roberts is 15-0 at home where it has won by an average of 10.9 points. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Nevada is no slouch but will certainly have its work cut out for itself in ORU's gym.

In addition, common opponent analysis supports this play. These two have played three like opponents since the beginning of last season. Oral Roberts is 4-0 versus those foes while Nevada is 0-3.

This season, ORU defeated Missouri State at home by 5 points while Nevada lost to Missouri State at home by 22. Last season, Nevada lost by double digits to Pacific and South Dakota State - teams ORU defeated by 16, 8 and 4 points respectively (played SDSU twice). We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Bucknell +8.5
This is a letdown spot for Arizona, which can't be excited in the least about playing in the NIT after making a deep NCAA tournament run last year. Bucknell, meanwhile, will relish this opportunity to face off against a top-tier program, especially since it was a major disappointment against Connecticut in the first round of last year's NCAA tourney. With 4 starters back from that team, you can bet the Bison will be hungry to show the country on national TV that they can compete with the big boys.

Arizona won't be at full strength after losing Josiah Turner due to a suspension. Plus, Jordin Mayes, who is dealing with a foot injury, isn't 100 percent.

Arizona is just 2-9 ATS in home games after a game where it's failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet Bucknell.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +4.5
This isn't a good spot for the Lakers. First of all, they are just 6-15-1 ATS in road games this season, losing these games by an average score of 97.1 to 92.6. Secondly, the Lakers just played a double-OT game in Memphis last night. They will be fatigued and typically struggle when that is the case. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Bobcats are coming off a loss to the NBA's worst team (Charlotte) so you can expect them to be very motivated this evening. The Hornets have home wins over Boston, Orlando and Dallas and have played San Antonio to a 2-point game at home. In other words, beating the Lakers outright is certainly in the cards.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and the underdog is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -5
Motivated by a home loss to Memphis Sunday, expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong against a team they have defeated 3 consecutive times by an average of 15.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets have won 4 in a row at home against the Hawks with those wins coming by an average of 9.5 points.

The Nuggets have dominated teams from the East, going 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games against them. They have especially dominated the Southeast division, going 10-1 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets haven't just won these games, they have won them by an average of 18.7 points. Bet Denver.

4* NCAAB SMASH on Akron +6.5
We find Northwestern in a letdown spot this evening as it had its sights set on the NCAA tournament. It will be very difficult for the Wildcats to get up for this game as they clearly don't want to be playing in the NIT.

Akron wanted to be dancing as well, but defeating a team from a power conference would be a nice consolation prize.

The Zips have been a terrific investment at 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are 38-16-5 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.

I just don't think Northwestern's heart will be in this one tonight. Take Akron.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +4
The Timberwolves have lost back-to-back games, Ricky Rubio for the season and they lost in Phoenix by 9 points earlier this month. The Suns have been playing well, winning 4 of 5 since these two last met, and yet they are laying less points than they did the last time these two faced off. I smell a trap.

The books obviously like Minnesota's chances tonight, and I have to agree. Rubio plays with flare at times and makes spectacular plays on occasion, but veteran Luke Ridnour is a better shooter and plays with intelligence. I don't see much of a drop off, if any.

The T-wolves shot 1 of 13 from 3-point range in the previous meeting, and I don't see that happening again. We're talking about a team that averages 7 3-point makes per game.

Minnesota is 19-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season, 17-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Also, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6
After losing the season's first two meetings in Memphis by a combined 4 points, I expect the Nuggets to avoid the season sweep with a comfortable win tonight.

Denver has won 8 in a row at home against the Grizzlies with those wins coming by an average of 14 points.

The Grizzlies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games and 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Denver. We'll lay the points.

5* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* (CBS) on Michigan State +2
This is the matchup the Spartans were hoping for when they lost to Ohio State by 2 points at home in the regular season finale and lost an outright Big Ten title along with it.

Big Ten player of the year Draymond Green certainly wants this game. "It's just another opportunity for us. We had two chances to win the Big Ten outright, we didn't do it," Green said. "You can't really make up for it, but it's an opportunity to feel better about it if we get this conference tournament championship. It's just another way to leave that footprint, leave your legacy."

Green also knows a win could give his team a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Spartans as a neutral court dog. That's because they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 as a neutral court underdog or pickem. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.

Michigan State has also been strong in revenge spots. It is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 69.5 to 62.0 in this situation. It is also 11-3 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, winning in this situation by an average score of 70.9 to 63.5.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take Michigan State.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +9.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Chicago and Atlanta, and further fueled by a pair of lopsided losses in the season's first two meetings with Miami, expect the Pacers to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Indiana believes it can play with anyone in the NBA this season, and it will be out to solidify that belief this evening.

As far as rest goes, the advantage lies with Indy. It has had 3 full days to rest and prepare while Miami has only had 2. The Heat are 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. We'll take the points.

5* ACC Game of the Year on NC State +9
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to the Heels in the two regular season meetings and further fueled by an opportunity to leave no doubt in the minds of the NCAA selection committee, expect NC State to give UNC all it wants and more here.

The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.

Also, UNC is 0-9 ATS when playing away from home with one or no days' rest over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this situation by an average of 1.9 points.

This game means way more to the Wolfpack. Take the points.

4* SEC Tourney SMASH on Florida +9.5
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to Kentucky during the season, and further fueled by an opportunity to improve their tournament seeding, expect the Gators to give the Wildcats a game.

The Gators are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Wildcats are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

Odds makers have drastically overvalued the Wildcats following virtually every point-spread loss it has endured this season, and that remains the case here. UK is just 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. We'll take the points as this trend holds strong.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Clippers +5
Motivated by back-to-back 1-point defeats, and further fueled by a pair of loss to San Antonio this season, expect the Clippers to give the Spurs all they want and more.

The Clippers have been a strong wager in bounce back spots at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The fact San Antonio enters off a satisfying win over the Knicks bodes well for us. That's because the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Spurs have dropped 2 of their last 4 at home, and could suffer another setback tonight. We'll take the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on Kent State +2
Kent State lost to Akron by 1 point in last year's MAC tourney and it lost both of this year's regular season meetings. Motivated by those setbacks, I expect the Golden Flashes to get the job done this evening.

Revenge has been a strong angle to play with Kent State, considering it is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won these games by an average score of 70.7 to 62.2.

The Golden Flashes did not meet expectations this season and will be out for some serious payback here. Take Kent State.

4* Big 12 Tourney SMASH on Baylor +6.5
Motivated by a pair of disappointing performances against Kansas during the regular season, I expect Baylor to take the Jayhawks down to the wire this evening.

The high posted total isn't a good sign for the normally defensively sound Jayhawks as it indicates that the books expect Baylor to perform better at the offensive end than it did in the regular season meetings. Consider that Kansas is just 1-8 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. It has only won by an average of 2.4 points in these games.

The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games away from home when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more to a foe. Take Baylor.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (TNT) on Suns +3.5
This is a game the Suns want badly. They have lost 8 in a row to the Mavs, including all 3 this season, and were embarrassed with a 122-99 home loss the last time they squared off.

Motivation is rarely enough alone, so it's fortunate for us that Dallas has been struggling on the road. This really doesn't come as much of a surprise. Dallas was so good last season because of its bench, and it's not getting the same production from the second unit due to injuries and losing J.J. Barea. Dallas has lost 4 in a row on the road by an average of 6.8 points and one of those was a 5-point loss to lowly New Orleans.

The Suns, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 at home and haven't lost by more than 2 points in any of their last 7 home games.

The Suns played in OKC last night but shouldn't be gassed as they had 2 days' rest prior. In fact, the Suns are 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Gentry in home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. They have won by an average score of 101.2 to 92.0 in this spot. We'll take the Suns.

5* NCAAB Game of the Year on Cal -4
Back-to-back losses to Colorado and Stanford cost Cal a Pac-12 title, and I have no doubt that simple fact isn't sitting well with the Bears. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Cal to be on a mission in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll especially take great pride in paying back rival Stanford.

Cal had defeated Stanford by double digits in back-to-back meetings and by at least 7 points in 5 of 6 meetings before enduring a 5-point loss to the Cardinal on March 4. The fact Stanford was plus-12 from 3-point range in that game was a fluke considering it hadn't been more than plus-9 in any of the previous five meetings. It was no more than plus-six in four of those.

Cal is the better team, and I don't expect it to allow Stanford to beat it with the long ball again.

Cal is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 when playing away from home after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games away from home off 2 straight losses to conference rivals and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

In addition, Stanford is 0-6 ATS after covering the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

Lastly, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll take Cal.

4* MWC Tourney SMASH on Air Force +14.5
After getting massacred by 39 and 30 in the two regular season meetings, Air Force will be out to save face here. New Mexico, meanwhile, won't be able to help overlooking the Falcons.

Recent history suggests New Mexico isn't likely to put another beating on Air Force. Prior to this season, New Mexico hadn't won by more than 14 points in 4 straight meetings.

In addition, Air Force is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games away from home when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 11.1 points in this situation.

Also, the fact New Mexico enters off 3 straight overs bodes well for us. Consider that the Lobos are 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, only winning by an average of 7.8 points in this situation. Take Air Force.

5* C-USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTEP -3.5
UTEP finished the regular season with 3 straight losses while Houston finished with 3 straight wins, but I'm confident the Miners are the better team.

UTEP crushed Houston by 20 points at home on Jan. 7 before losing to the Cougars on the road in OT on Jan. 28. I love the Miners' chances of covering this number on a neutral floor.

It is worth our while to consider that plays against underdogs that have successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These dogs have lost by an average of 10.1 points in this situation.

The Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 13-4 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a fatigued Boston squad that was pushed to OT last night.

The Celtics have won 5 in a row, with the last 4 coming at home, but I believe their luck is about to change on the road. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The 76ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +6
There's no place like home for the Lakers, who are just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the road. The Lakers haven't won by more than 5 points away from home this season with those 6 wins coming by just 3.3 points on average. This tells us LA is overvalued tonight.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite while the Pistons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on George Washington +10
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including a 16-point defeat at Dayton last game, expect George Washington to give the Flyers a run for their money tonight.

One thing that has been an absolute must is fading Archie Miller's Dayton squad following a win or 15 or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS mark all-time, and Dayton has lost these 6 contests by an average of 10.0 points.

In addition, GW is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 0.1 points in this situation. GW is also 14-4 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to fewer than 60 points. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney SMASH on Maryland Eastern Shore +11
Maryland Eastern Shore fits into a system that's too good to ignore. Consider that Neutral court underdogs off a home loss of 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 25-6 ATS since 1997. That's an 80.6% success rate. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 1.5. points. We'll play by the numbers with MD Eastern Shore this afternoon.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +9.5
Out to end a 3-game skid, and out to avenge a pair of embarrassing losses to Denver, the Kings will be lacking no motivation this evening.

Sacramento has been a more than quality investment this season when checking in off 3 of more consecutive losses. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in these spots and is winning by an average of 0.7 points. In addition, the Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with a days' rest. We'll back the Kings in this highly motivated spot.

4* Conference Tourney SMASH on Western Illinois +8
Western Illinois won't be lacking any confidence tonight against an Oral Roberts squad it played to a 1-point game earlier this season.

The Golden Eagles have been overvalued all season, especially against team who average 33 of fewer rebounds per contest. They are 0-7 ATS vs. these teams and have only defeated them by an average of 6.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Summit League and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Leathernecks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Leathernecks are also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points as Western Illinois keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +4
The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the Heat in a bounce back spot following a 1-point loss at Utah, but recent history tells us this isn't wise. Consider that Miami is just 4-16 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing by an average of 2.0 points in this spot.

The Lakers are 16-2 at home this season and enter this contest having won 7 in a row at Staples. Their 2 home defeats to the Bulls and Pacers have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. The Lakers will also be very motivated here because they were embarrassed in Miami in January.

Plays on home underdogs in non-conference play that are extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) are an awesome 45-18 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 18-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Lakers.

4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Florida +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at Kentucky last month, expect Florida to bounce back strong at home, where it is 16-1 on the season.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is fading the Gators in the underdog role. That's because they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Florida.

Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS when matched up against good shooting teams (making >=45% of their shots) this season, and 1-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Also, Florida is 19-8 ATS under coach Donovan after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 78 to 63.7 in this situation. The value clearly lies with Florida. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawaii +1
This is a tough scheduling spot for Utah State, which makes the long trip to Hawaii after just playing at San Jose State Thursday. The Warriors, meanwhile, who will be hungry to end a 4-game skid, have been at home for nearly a week. Expect a jetlagged performance from the Aggies tonight.

Utah State won at San Jose State, who is just 1-12 in the WAC, but it still can't be trusted away from home. Prior to that win, the Aggies had lost 4 in a row and 8 of 9 on the road.

Prior to Thursday's disappointing performance versus Idaho, Hawaii had won 3 of 4 at home, including an impressive 4-point victory over New Mexico State, who has a pair of double-digit wins over Utah State this season.

The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Aggies are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Hawaii. Also, the Warriors are a 100% perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Hawaii.

4* NCAAB Upset Special on Air Force +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 30-point loss to New Mexico and an 18-point defeat in the season's first meeting with Colorado State, expect Air Force to bounce back strong on senior day.

Air Force is a far more solid team than its record might lead you to believe. It has a home over San Diego State and its losses to Colorado, TCU and UNLV have come by 3 points or less.

Colorado State has been deadly at home but a pushover on the road. The Rams have lost 6 in a row away from home by an average of 14 points.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pickem that are good defensively (allowing <=64 points/game on the season) after a blowout loss by 30 points or more are 26-5 ATS since 1997, including 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of .4 points. With this in mind, I love Air Force's chances of pulling off the upset.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Marshall -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a 4-point loss at So. Miss in the season's first meeting, expect Marshall to bounce back strong today.

The consecutive losses are significant because coach Herrion's squads are 8-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. They have won these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.8.

Marshall is a better team than it has shown in C-USA play. We're talking about a team that played No. 2 Syracuse to a 6-point game on the road. The Thundering Herd are 12-4 at home on the season, and I expect them to show what they are truly capable of this afternoon.

So. Miss has lost 3 straight on the road to UTEP, Houston and UAB. If it can't beat UTEP or Houston on the road, it's going to have a very tough time against the Herd here.

The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Marshall.

5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Missouri State -2
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a pair of losses to Evansville, Missouri State will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor tonight.

I have no doubt the value lies with Missouri State here and history is on our side. The fact Missouri State has endured 6 straight ATS defeats and Evansville has rattled off 4 straight ATS wins bodes extremely well for us. In fact, plays on favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points.

Neither team has played since Feb. 25 but the extra time off figures to be more detrimental to the Purple Aces, who are just 2-10 ATS under coach Simmons when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. They have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

I really believe Missouri State is the better team, and I can't see it losing 3 times to Evansville in the same season. Lay the number.