5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +

It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers.

The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons.

The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

The Chicago Bulls have a legitimate chance to finish the season with one of the best records in the NBA. As we saw in the playoffs last year, Dwayne Wade is aging, and the Heat cannot rely on Chris Bosh to step up his performance when wide is getting rest minutes. The Bulls play very stingy defense, similar to the style of Indiana. We saw last year how that can cause the Heat problems on offense.

Derrick Rose averaged 20.7 points while the Bulls went 8-0 during the preseason. The Bulls have played some great games against the Heat, including a game one win at Miami in the playoffs last year. They accomplished that feat without Rose, who has played in just one of the last 12 meetings between these teams. Rose is the differentiating factor that give the Bulls the edge in this game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bulls clearly have a defensive edge in this game, and with Derrick Rose back the offense is bound to give the Heat a run for their money. These teams don't like each other and I expect this matchup to come down to the last possession.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

I expect to see the Heat concentrate on a better defensive performance in game 7 tonight. With the shooting from the Spurs role players leveling off and San Antonio using everything left in the tank in game 6 that should be an easy task to accomplish. Miami still has some offensive problems of their own which makes the under a strong value play in today's matchup.

Miami has gone under the total in 5 of their last 9 games in the playoffs and it not for overtime in the last game that record would easily be 6-3. The Heat defense has been great in the playoffs allowing an average of just 90.8 points per game. The Spurs defense has also been solid holding their playoff opponents to 93.2 points per game.

The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 17-5 in their last 22 road games overall. These teams have a history of staying under the total when playing in Miami. In head to head matchups the under is 12-4 in the last 16 games when the Heat are at home.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat delivered a big blow to the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio thought they had the game locked up before Lebron James stepped in to send the game to overtime. That kind of disappointment will linger with a team which is way I expect the Spurs to have a major let down performance tonight.

There are no more games left in this series so the Heat are playing in another game that is a must win situation. They seem to thrive in this role which is why their last two series have gone back and forth. Miami has one of the most potent offenses in the league averaging 104.6 points per game on their home court. They are shooting over 50% at home and it was obvious in game 6 that the Spurs are getting worn out.

Even when San Antonio wins the battle on the boards they are losing to the Heat. In game 2 the Spurs were +7 on the boards and lost in an 84-103 blowout. The game 6 rebounding advantage when to the Spurs at +13 which further shows how worn down this San Antonio team is after a long season. The Heat know they can't allow the Spurs to keep this game close and I expect them to pick up this win in a blowout. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The shooting from the Spurs role players has leveled off and Miami is 42-28 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game this season.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs +

This is too many points for the Spurs to be receiving considering how well they are playing in the post season. The Spurs average 100.8 points per game on the road and they have covered the number in 9 of their last 13 playoff games. San Antonio is shooting 47% against the Heat and Miami does not look like they have what it takes to cover such a large number.

Defensively the Spurs have held Miami to an average of 96.2 points per game. The Miami heat have allowed San Antonio an average of 99.2 points per game in the first five games of this championship series. With the role players for the Spurs making big shots it is very unlikely that the Heat can continue to play well in every other game and cover a 7 point line.

The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games coming off a performance scoring 100 points or more. The Heat are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. All signs point to a very close battle between these teams.

3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

The Miami defense has been respectable this season, especially when playing at home. They have held opponents to 94 points per game while scoring just 96.2 points per game against the Spurs. The first two games of this series played in Miami stayed well under the posted total of 190 points and 189.5 points so there is a lot of value on the under as we come back to Miami with an even higher total set on this game.

When playing on the road the Spurs have taken a defensive oriented approach rather than a shoot quickly and score approach like they use at home. This is exactly why San Antonio held Miami to just 88 points in the series opener of this game. While both of these teams have been shooting well in San Antonio I expect that to level out as we head back to Miami.

The under is 13-3 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their games at home and it is 17-4 in their last 21 road games overall. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games and 12-3 in the last 15 head to head meetings between these teams when the game is being played in Miami.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing on an extra day of rest coming into tonight

5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury.

The Heat have now seen San Antonio

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Miami Heat may have won game 2 in a blowout but do not expect that to slow San Antonio down today. The Spurs are a veteran team and should have no problems responding to that loss on their home court. San Antonio averages 104.4 points per game at home and I do not expect the Heat to have solid back to back defensive performances.

You have to like San Antonio's chances of picking up a win on their home court. They managed to beat Miami in game 1 of this series even though the Heat had a pretty solid overall performance. The Spurs have performed well defensively at home allowing just 94.2 points per game giving them an average scoring margin of victory at 10.1 points per game.

Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They have not shown us that they can perform well in back to back games during the post season. They are playing in a very unfamiliar role coming into this game as an underdog. San Antonio has done a great job of responding after a poor performance going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games. Expect this veteran team to come out strong for tonight's game.

4* Vegas Insider on Miami Heat

Miami has done a great job of responding to losses this season and I fully expect them to do the same thing for game 2 of this Championship Series. Miami has not lost 2 games back to back since January so the possibility of back to back losses seems very unlikely. Miami actually outplayed the Spurs in game 1 of this series and assuming they stick to the same game plan I do not expect the anomaly of the better team losing to repeat itself.

The Heat offense at home averages 104.7 points per game and the San Antonio defense is not good enough to hold them so far below their statistical average in back to back games. The Spurs are allowing 97.2 points per game on the road this season. Miami may play small ball but they are also a better rebounding team than San Antonio. In game 1 they had a total of 54 boards compared to 47 from the Spurs.

The reality is that Miami is the better team. After losing as a favorite I expect to see this Miami team respond just like they did in the series against Chicago as well as the series against Indiana. The Heat never lost back to back games and they always followed a losing performance with a good game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest and they are 9-2 ATS following a straight up loss. I don

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs come into this game being the well-rested team. They are a veteran team so that rest will be crucial when facing the Heat. Miami is coming off a mentally and physically draining series against the Pacers and two of the Big Three are struggling right now. Dwayne Wade is playing through a knee injury and Chris Bosh is coming off a poor shooting performance in the series against Indiana.

The Spurs offense has actually scored more points on average than the Heat. San Antonio is averaging 102.8 points per game compared to 101.9 per game from the Heat. The Pacers gave San Antonio a blue print for how to beat Miami. Pounding the ball inside will be the reason San Antonio keeps this game close and possibly pulls off the win in this game.

The Spurs have played great basketball on the road against winning teams. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a home winning percentage of 60% or more. They are 4-1 ATS in NBA Championship games and their experience should lead them to a solid opening game performance against a Heat team that has been known to start slow. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win and I expect them to struggle with the talented bigs on this Spurs team.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Indiana Pacers are in for some big trouble tonight when they face the Miami Heat. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Miami when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points and they are off an upset loss of 10 points or more when playing as a road favorite. This system is 24-4 (86%) ATS.

The Heat have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 105.1 points per game. They certainly have blowout potential against Indiana if you look back at games 3 and 5 of this series. The Pacers have not been able to hold Miami

3* Total Annihilator on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Even though the Pacers lost game 5 of this series they can

3* Main Event on Miami Heat -

Miami received their first real wake-up call of the season when they lost a close battle with the Pacers on Tuesday. The Heat were into foul trouble early in that game and that is a mistake they will not repeat today. They are also playing on their home court where they are 42-6 on the season and it will be a big advantage for today

5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +3

The Pacers have shown us they can compete with the Heat and after Miami shot 54.5% in the last game between these teams I expect Indiana to have no problems making the necessary defensive adjustments. On the offensive side of the ball Indiana did nothing to exploit their size advantage like they did in the first two games of the series. This is also something I expect Indiana to get back to doing tonight.

The Pacers will have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd again which can be a huge momentum swing, especially in a playoff game. Indiana has held teams to 90.1 points per game at home on 41.4% shooting. They have the second best defense in the league statistically, and many would argue they are actually better than Memphis due to a more difficult schedule and playing through injuries.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They have posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games at home. They should have no problems improving on that number with a much better defensive performance during tonight

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies

This matchup falls into a system to play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two teams winning 60% to 75% of their games this season. This system is 53-20 (73%) ATS. The Grizzlies are also 15-6 ATS against teams winning over 70% of their games this season.

Memphis is playing in a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. I expect the defense to step up and perform well against the Spurs tonight. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the league and have held opponents to 87.6 points per game when playing at home.

San Antonio shot over 50% in the last game against Memphis. That anomaly is unlikely to occur again playing on the Grizzlies

5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER

The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today

4* No Brainer on Memphis -

Memphis is playing in a must win situation today. They cannot afford to fall three games behind against the Spurs and they know it. The venue for this game has moved to the Grizzlies home court so I expect them to have a very strong performance in this game.

Memphis is 37-9 at home this season and their defense has held opponents to 87.2 points per game which leads all teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss and they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs definitely do not play great on the road as 19 of their 26 losses on the season have come away from home.

Defensively San Antonio has struggled on the road allowing opponents 97.8 points per game. That spells big trouble for the Spurs today, especially when you consider the fact that Memphis is 15-5 ATS when playing against a top tier team winning 70% or more of their games this season. The Grizzlies defense should prove to be too much for the Spurs today as Memphis picks up a big home court win.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

After the scare the Pacers gave the Heat in game 1 of this series I expect them to respond the same way they did against Chicago, with a blowout win. The Heat are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games when playing with a day of rest.

The Heat have a statistical advantage from almost every angle. They are scoring more points per game, which goes hand in hand with their better shooting percentages, and they average less turnovers and have a stronger bench. While Indiana may have an edge defensively, the Heat have more scoring threats than any other team they have faced this season.

The achilles heel for Indiana is their inability to score points. They rank 23rd in the league averaging just 94.7 points per game. I expect Miami to have no problems breaking down the Indiana defense now that they have a full game worth of film to analyze. Add in the fact that Miami is playing on their home court and we have a blowout in the making.

5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +

The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too.

The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end.

3* Main Event on Memphis +

There is a reason this line is only a point off the line from game 1 of this matchup. The San Antonio Spurs shot 52.6% from the field against the best defense in the post season and that anomaly is not going to take place again. The Grizzlies typically hold opponents to 43.6% shooting and 89.8 points per game.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more when they are playing against an opponent that scored 85 points or less in the previous game. This system is 40-17 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.

In head to head history between these teams the games have been very close. Back in April the Grizzlies won straight up by two points. Excluding the game 1 matchup between these teams three of the last four games have been decided by 5 points or less and there is no reason tonight

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio has been dangerously good at home this season. The Spurs posted a 39-7 straight up record. The offense has averaged 104.6 points per game at home while allowing only 94.7 points. They are an extremely well rounded team and when playing at home they should have no problems pulling away from the Grizzlies.

Memphis comes into this game barely scoring more than what they allow when playing on the road. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to 92 points per game. While the Grizzlies defense has been great, the Spurs present a matchup nightmare.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS when playing on 2 days of rest. When coming off a straight up win by 10 points or more they are 4-1 ATS in the following game. In head to head matchups the Spurs have a history of dominating the Grizzlies. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games played at San Antonio and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 overall.

4* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers -

The Knicks have not responded well to a win and their inability to gain any momentum will haunt them today against the Pacers. New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. They are facing a Pacers team that is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played at home and against a Pacers defense that has shut them down for most of this series.

The Pacers own a 35-11 record at home because their defense plays so well. Their defense ranks 1st in the league in shooting percentage allowed from the field as well as from beyond the three point line. They are 2nd in points allowed per game and 1st in rebounds per game on offense. Throughout the playoffs Indiana has run their defense seamlessly and all those bodies in the paint makes rebounding an easy task.

While the Knick

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -

Indiana is by far one of the worst road teams left in the playoffs. The Pacers have a 21-24 straight up record on the road. They are scoring only 91 points per game away from home which is nowhere near the level they need to keep pace with this Knicks team scoring 101.5 points per game at home.

The Knicks are playing to keep their postseason hopes alive and that should serve as plenty of motivation for today

3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls +

It may come as a surprise to hear that Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Things will not get much better for Miami when they face a Chicago team that still has a lot of fight left in them. The Bulls responded well to the first blowout by Miami and coming off a 65-88 loss is more than enough motivation to play well today. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss.

With the exception of game 2 in this series the Bulls defense has played pretty well. The spark they need is on offense, especially after a 25.7% shooting performance in the last game of this series. The Miami defense is not that good so I don

4* Heavy Hitter on San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs are a veteran team and they have no problem responding to a loss, even in the postseason. San Antonio is 19-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors have certainly played better than what they deserve credit for. The have allowed an average of 103.5 points per game on the road while scoring 101.7 offensively.

The Spurs have to have a sour taste in their mouth after Golden State picked up a win on the Spurs home court so they will certainly be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight. One thing that should not be forgotten is this the fact that this San Antonio team is the same one that has won six of their last eight games and is a Championship contender every year.

The Spurs have one of the best home records in the league and while their ATS record at home is right around .500 that seems to be the norm for most NBA teams. I really like the Spurs to cover this number tonight because of their home court advantage. They average 104.5 points per game at home and playing against a soft Warriors defense should make it easy for San Antonio to pull away.

4* Total Dominator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers are still not giving any love to the Grizzlies defense this season. This line is especially high considering Oklahoma City

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors

Golden State is coming off a 10 point home loss against the Spurs and that will serve as motivation for today

4* Total Annihilator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers continue to underestimate the talent of this Memphis defense. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 87.2 points per game at home this season. Offensively they do not do much to be concerned about going over the total as they are scoring a mere 93.9 points per game.

The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER when coming off 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. The Grizzlies are also trending towards the under at 14-5 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies defense is dangerous enough when they are playing almost every day, but given some rest and they should be performing at their best against the Thunder.

When the series is tied both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. In these scenarios teams will often make defensive adjustments rather than finding additional ways to score. This is why you should always play the under when the total is 180 to 189.5 points when both teams have a winning record on the season and they are playing in a playoffs series that is tied. This system is 34-16 (68%) over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Golden State/Spurs UNDER

With the series tied at 1-1 I expect both of these teams to step up their play defensively. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and the home team is well rested, playing 4 games or less in the last 10 days, and they are winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 35-10 (78%) to the UNDER for the last five seasons.

The Spurs are holding opponents to 96.5 points per game this year while Golden State is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game at home. Four of the last six games between these teams have gone under the total. In game 2 of this series the Warriors held San Antonio to 39.3% shooting from the field and in game 1 the Spurs were held to 43.8% shooting. If not for a double overtime in the first game of this series this total would be set several points lower than it is today.

The Spurs are 18-7 to the under after playing two consecutive home games this season while Golden State is 13-4 to the under when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the past two seasons. The fact that this series is tied means that both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. Nobody wants to be down in the series with the championship dreams on the line. Golden State is playing well defensively right now and the Spurs have to be making defensive adjustments to keep the Warriors from getting points on the board. All signs point to a defensive battle tonight with this game staying under the total.

5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5

There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS.

The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today

4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how well both of these defenses are playing right now. Miami has gone under the total in four of the last five playoffs games. They have done so while shooting a spectacular 48% from the field. The Bulls are also shooting well, but they are not scoring a lot of points. This is because the style of play for both of these teams requires taking time off the clock to setup each possession.

It is not just game one of this series that went under the total. In head to head matchups the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games played at Miami. The Heat are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 games against NBA central teams. The Bulls are also trending towards the under at 5-2 in the last 7 against teams with a winning record.

Chicago has held opponents to 93.3 points per game on average this season. The Heat had also had impressive defensive numbers holding opponents to 94.5 points per game. Considering the fact that both of these teams run a slowdown offense they are the perfect matchup scenario to stay under the total.

4* Vegas Insider on New York Knicks -

Chalk up the first game of this series as an anomaly because the Knicks should take this one big tonight. This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana after having covered three of their last four games against the spread, when they are playing in a game involving two teams winning 60-75% on the season. This system is 49-26 (65%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup falls into another system to play on favorites like New York when they are a hot team that has won 20 or more of their last 25 games and they are winning 60-75% or more of their games this season. This system is 63-39 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks offense shot 43.2% from the field in the first game of this series and they allowed the Pacers to shoot 48.7%. Both of those numbers are well of season averages and should not take place again tonight.

The Pacers managed to outscore their season average on the road by double digits in game one of this series. Let

5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout.

Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points.

San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

The Chicago Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. They pulled off a surprise upset over Brooklyn just two days ago and now they will face a well-rested Miami Heat team. The Heat locked up their opening series back on April 28th and that extra rest will make a big difference in today

3* Main Event on New York Knicks

Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. The Pacers have been horrible on the road earning a 20-23 straight up record. Offensively they average a mere 91 points per game while the defense is allowing 91.3 points on the road. They face a Knicks team that has seen no shortage of offense on their home court averaging 101.5 points per game. Obviously as we enter the second round of the NBA playoffs the teams are facing better competition. New York will be one of the toughest teams the Pacers have faced on the road. The Knicks record at home is an impressive 33-11 straight up and 26-18 against the spread.

New York struggled with Boston because after going up 3-0 they began to look past their opponent. That will not happen with the Pacers as the Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. With the style of offense run by New York is is really no surprise that Woodson is 17-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game as the coach of New York. I expect this game to get ugly early for the Pacers as the Knicks pick up a big win to open this series.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER

With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons.

Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight

3* Bailout Blowout on Houston Rockets -

The injury to Russell Westbrook has proved to be fatal for the Thunder. Houston has picked up wins in the last two games and they should have no problem evening the series to 3-3 on their home court tonight. Houston is 30-13 straight up at home averaging 108.1 points per game.

The Thunder like to turn games into a shootout which plays perfectly to Houston

4* No Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +

The Clippers should not need any more motivation than they already have after dropping three straight games to Memphis. They are 18-7 ATS over the last two seasons when playing with double revenge, having 2 or more consecutive losses against their opponent. They have been embarrassed in three straight games and I expect to see them come out and make a statement in today

4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

Brooklyn is 19-7 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days while Chicago is 13-5 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The fact that this game is being played in Chicago should also help the total. The Bulls have allowed a mere 91.5 points per game at home this season.

The first game played in Chicago ended with a 76-79 final score staying well under the total of 182 points. The second game played at Chicago went way over the total due to the game extending out into triple overtime. The total on that game was set at 176.5 points and it seems like a much more appropriate total for this game over the 184 it is set at today.

Neither team has been spectacular on offense with the Nets averaging 96.6 points per game on the road and the Bulls averaging just 93.7 points at home. After Chicago was blown out to the tune of 110-91 in the last game I expect to see them make a conscious effort to play better defense. They should have a much easier time controlling the pace of this game playing on their home court which makes the under the value play.

3* Main Event on Indiana Pacers -

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs when playing at home. They have a 32-11 straight up record and the Pacers are 24-19 ATS. They swept Atlanta with a pair of blowouts during the first two games of the series. That trend should continue today considering how bad Atlanta has looked on the road this year.

Indiana has held opponents to 90.1 points per game at home while the offense scores and average of 98.2 points per game. They face an Atlanta offense that is average at best when on the road, scoring 96.4 points per game while the defense is allowing 97.4 per game. The Hawks have not found a way to stop Paul George and George Hill as both players led the Pacers in scoring in the first two games of the series.

The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and their defense plays so well at home it

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets -

Denver is 17-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 63-32 (66%) ATS since 1996.

The Nuggets are playing in a must win situation tonight so there is no way they will take their foot off the gas. They average 108.4 points per game at home and pull in 54 rebounds per game. They also have one of the best home court records in the league at 39-4 straight up and 28-15 ATS.

With Denver playing to keep their postseason dreams alive I think they come out and play aggressive with the Warriors in front of their home crowd tonight. The Warriors have a losing record on the road this season at 20-23 and their win over Denver on April 23rd was due to shooting almost 65% from the field. That is unlikely to occur again so the Nuggets should take this one by a large margin.

3* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Nets UNDER

If not for triple overtime in the last game, the series between the Bulls and Nets has seen very little offensive production. The under is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 road games and 31-14 in their last 45 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In the last two games played at Brooklyn the Bulls were held to 90 points or less. The series is back in Brooklyn for today's game and should play out very similar to those first two games.

The extra rest that comes in the post season can be a big help when it comes to playing defense. This matchup calls into a system to play on the under when one of the teams is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and playing against another team with a winning record. This system is 226-159 (59%) to the under for the last 5 seasons.

Nets Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo is 37-17 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1996. Tom Thibodeau is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of Chicago. With the day off coming into this game I expect both teams to step up their defensive efforts and that will keep this game under the total.

3* Main Event on Denver Nuggets -

The Nuggets style of playing small and running has worked well all season. They know they are in a must win situation tonight because they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in the series. The Warriors have several key injuries that will catch up with them today. David Lee is out with a season ending hip injury. Stephen Curry has stepped up his offensive production, but he is playing with a bad ankle that was sprained late in the second game of the series.

After the two point thriller in the third game of the series there is a favorable situation for the road team. You should play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more and they are a well rested team playing 6 or less games in the last 14 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Warriors have averaged 58.5% shooting in the last two games. Even the best shooting teams in the league can not continue at that pace for long. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 1 day of rest. They are playing in a must win situation and should pick up a win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a lot of respect being favored in this game after starting out 0-2 to the Pacers. They have certainly earned that respect with a 25-16 record at home. The Pacers on the other hand have had their challenges on the road ending the regular season with a losing record of 19-21.

Most of the Pacers struggles on the road this season have come because of poor offensive play. There defense has been respectable holding opponents to 91.5 points per game but the offense has scored an average of just 91.8 points per game. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster considering the Hawks are naturally one of the better teams the Pacers have faced this season.

Indiana is 5-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the favorite is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings and when playing at Atlanta the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Hawks should have no problem picking up their first win in the series on their home court today.

4* Total No Brainer on Bulls/Nets UNDER

After Thursday's game between these teams it is obvious that both the Bulls and the Nets are struggling to put points on the board this postseason. This series has now fallen into a system to play on the UNDER when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points and the road team scored 35 points or less in the first half of their last game, and the home team is coming off a combined score of 160 points or less. This system is 25-6 (81%) to the UNDER.

The Nets have an average defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per game. However, their defense performs much better when they are well-rested which is why the Bulls have not been able to do a lot of scoring in this series. Brooklyn is 19-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. It is a similar story for Chicago as they are 11-3 to the UNDER in that same scenario.

The Brooklyn Nets are not shooting well, averaging just 35% in the past two games of this series. The Bulls have not been shooting well either, but that is to be expected from a team that averages 92.9 points per game and is up against a solid defense. The Bulls have been phenomenal on the defensive end of the court when they are playing at home. Chicago has held opponents to 90.5 points per game and with Brooklyn being an average scoring team, at best, this game should stay well under the total.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1

Golden State is getting too much credit coming into this game as a favorite. The Warriors may score 101.5 points per game at home. but their defense has also given up 100.4 points per game this season. Now they face a Denver Nuggets team that has no problem lighting up a scoreboard as they average 106.2 points per game.

The Nuggets gave up 64.6% shooting in the last game against Golden State and there is no way the Warriors will be able to duplicate that performance. That phenomenal shooting performance has forced the oddsmakers to tighten this line more than they should have. You should always play on road teams like Denver when they are shooting 33-36.5% on 3 point attempts playing against an average 3 point defense when they are coming off a game they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or more. This system is 62-34 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Another anomaly that should correct itself tonight is the fact that Golden State has managed to outrebound the Nuggets. Denver averages 55 rebounds per game on the road with 13 coming on the offensive end of the court. The Warriors are averaging 52 overall and 11 offensive rebounds. I expect the Nuggets to come out with a solid shooting performance and win the battle of the boards as they pick up a road win against the Warriors tonight.

5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER

The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game.

You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends.

Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be.

4* Vegas Insider on Boston Celtics -

The Knicks are a team that has a bad habit of becoming overly confident. That explains they why are 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Boston has done a great job of responding to losses against division opponents and that mentality is what landed the Celtics in the playoffs. Boston is 13-3 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

The Knicks have struggled to get points on the board against Boston even though they own a 2-0 advantage to start the series. They are shooting 41.3% in the playoffs which has them trending in the wrong direction. They may not shoot as poorly as they have tonight, but playing on the road should make it near impossible for them to keep pace with a Celtics team that has such a strong home court advantage.

The Celtics are shooting 47.7% at home this season where they own a 27-13 straight up record. They have held the Knicks to an average of 86 points per game in the playoffs. The added energy from playing on their home court should be more than enough to give Boston the edge tonight.

5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER

The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons.

The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle.

4* No Limit on Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies received a much needed break after starting their series against the Clippers at 0-2. They have performed much batter at home than on the road this season going 32-9 when playing in Memphis. The Grizzlies style of play is playing tough defense and beating teams up in the pain which is something they were unable to do on the road against Los Angeles. I expect to see a rejuvenated team show up tonight with the Zach Randolph staying out of foul trouble and making a larger contribution than he has been able to in the previous two games.

Memphis has held opponents to 87 points per game on their home court on 42.7% shooting from the field. It is extremely unlikely that the Clippers will be able to continue shooting over 51% in game three of this series. It may come as a surprise to many but the Clippers are not a great team on the road. They have a 24-17 straight up record and they are below .500 ATS.

With game two being decided by just two points in Los Angeles the Grizzlies have shown they can compete with the Clippers. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. A little rest and a change in venue is more than enough the swing the outcome of this game in favor of the Grizzlies.

3* Total Dominator on Brooklyn/Chicago UNDER

After the Bulls let the Nets score 106 points in the series opener we saw a defense oriented game plan in the second game of this series. The series is now tied at 1-1 which places this game in a system to play on the UNDER. Over the past 5 seasons you would have an 80-42 (66%) record if playing the under in a playoff series that is tied.

The venue has now moved to Chicago where the Bulls have held opponents to 90.9 points per game. The Bulls are 25-16 to the under in home games on the season. Defensively the Nets are not far behind Chicago holding opponents to 95 points per game. In the playoffs they held Chicago to 89 points in game 1 of the series and 90 points in game 2.

The under is 19-9 in the Nets last 28 games being played on 2 or more days of rest. In head to head meetings being played at Chicago the under is 5-2 and the Bulls are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals game. The oddsmakers have set the total far too high for a matchup that features two strong defensive units and a pair of offenses that rarely light up the scoreboard with points.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER

The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight.

The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean.

The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight.

3* Vegas Insider on Atlanta Hawks +7

I think Atlanta comes to play here tonight after getting it handed to them in Game 1. The Hawks actually shot well, making 50% from the floor and 41.2% from 3-point range in the first matchup. The problem was Atlanta allowed Indiana to shoot 34 free throws and out rebound them by 12, including nine on the offensive end.

Atlanta doesn't usually have a problem with fouling, and Indiana isn't particularly good at drawing fouls, so I expect the free throw disparity to be much closer tonight. The Hawks aren't as good of a rebounding team as the Pacers, but they can make up for a small disadvantage due to their excellent shooting.

Atlanta is 18-7 ATS on the road revenging a double digit loss to an opponent the last three years while Indiana is 31-49 ATS off a home with the last three seasons. I think Atlanta rebounds tonight so I'll take the points.

5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -

Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.

This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg).

When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year.

I'll take Denver.

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Chicago Bulls +

The Brooklyn Nets had their way with the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series, and now with the number basically unchanged the public is all over the Nets in Game 2. However, I think Chicago is going to pull out the cover tonight by keeping this game close.

The Bulls won three of the four regular season games and their sole loss was by four points, so one game isn't enough to make me think Chicago suddenly forgot how to play these Nets. Brooklyn is a hot time right now, I'll give them that but they are not a great offensive team so the 106 points they just put up is a bit of an outlier. Chicago will use that embarrassment as motivation to bring their A games tonight.

The Bulls are 23-12 ATS after an over this year and 22-10 ATS when failing to cover in two straight games the last two seasons. The Nets are just 25-41 ATS after covering the last two years and 11-23 ATS at home after a win. This is a perfect rebound situation for Chicago and I think they can easily pull off the upset.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs UNDER

These two teams met just a week ago in LA and the final score was 86-91. I know Steve Nash will be playing tonight and he normally ups the tempo and creates on offense, but the Lakers are not as good offensively without Kobe Bryant on the floor. Against the Rockets in their final regular season game they went well under the total as well.

San Antonio is an under-rated defensive team that only allows 94.3 ppg at home. They are coming off a high scoring first half in their last game, but the Spurs are 11-3 UNDER this season after putting up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game.

The Lakers are 17-7 UNDER the last two years against teams that score 103+ ppg while the Sprus are 23-13 UNDER this year against teams above .500. This one will be low scoring so take the UNDER.

5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg.

San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996.

The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight.

4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Indiana Pacers -

Indiana is showing some value here today after losing their last six at the pay window to close out the season and five of their last six straight up. They were really in kind of a no-man's land after the Knicks came on strong so didn't have much to play for.

It's tough to pass up this low of a number when you see how Indiana has played a home. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by eight points per game, while the Hawks have a losing record on the road. These teams know just how important it is to protect the home court advantage and how important it is to win Game 1. I think the better team will come out focused, ready to play, and take care of business this afternoon.

4* "Never Lost" Total on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER

These two teams have gone UNDER the last three times they have faced off, but that has created some value in tonight's number. The total back on 3/13 when these two last met in LA was 185 and only went UNDER by four points, which would have put us OVER tonight's number.

The Clippers are an offensive force, especially at home where they are putting up 104.1 ppg on 49.3% shooting and 37.2% accuracy from behind the 3-point line. Memphis is a solid defensive team, but they are giving up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home.

The line sitting at -4.5 puts us in a perfect situation here tonight as the Clippers are 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of six points or less this season, with those games averaging 207.2 ppg.

3* Bailout on LA Clippers -

I like the home teams in this series. The Clippers are a strong offensive team at home while the Memphis defense slips a little bit when taking to the road. This series depended on the pace of the game this year, the one time things slowed down the Grizzlies came out on top. The three games that were played with a fast tempo all went to the Clippers.

Last year LA went to Memphis and won Game 1 to help them steal the series in seven games. That knowledge has to be on the forefront of their minds as they know this Game 1 is going to be important if they want to protect their home court and advance.

I like the home team laying the small number here tonight so take the Clippers.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Boston Celtics +


If you look at the last two games between these two teams over the past 30 days you would think New York has Boston's number. The Knicks won 108-89 at home on 3/31 and 100-85 in Boston on 3/26. Those two victories were towards the beginning of an impressive 13 game win streak to close out the year and help New York land the No. 2 seed in the East. That has lead the Knicks to be a little over-valued heading into the first round of the playoffs.

Boston on the other hand is under-valued. The Celtics are a team that has risen to the occasion under Doc Rivers and I expect them to do so again here today. While Boston has had playoff success as of late, Carmelo and the Knicks have not. Anthony has a 17-37 record in the playoffs during his career and New York hasn't won a playoff series since the 1999-2000 season.

The Celtics finished their season with a loss at Toronto that sets up an interesting situation here. Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss to a division rival the last three seasons while Rivers is 33-16 ATS off a loss against a division rival since taking over as coach of the Celtics.

I'll take the Celtics in Game 1.

5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5

I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games.

Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total.

The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score.

The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons.

4* No Brainer on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Indiana Pacers have sealed their postseason fate. There is no way they are going to be giving 100% in today

3* Oddsmakers Error on New Orleans Hornets +

The Dallas Mavericks may have thrown in the towel on their season. They are coming off a six point loss to Memphis on their home court and they missed the playoffs by four games. This matchup falls into a system to play against a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are coming off a loss against a division rival and they have won 40-49% of their games on the season, playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 25-11 (69%) over the last five seasons.

New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team winning 40% to 49% of their games over the last 3 seasons. They will be playing for a bit of revenge in this game as the Mavericks handed them an 18 point loss just a few nights ago. New Orleans may not have a great record this season, but they certainly know how to respond after a poor performance. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season.

3* No Doubt Rout on Hawks -

The Atlanta Hawk

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis -

These teams met back in February with Memphis picking up a 90-84 victory over Dallas. The Mavericks are 1-10 ATS over the last two seasons when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record.

Defensively the Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league. They have held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game this season. In their last five games they have held opponents to an outstanding 83.4 points per game so it is safe to say the Grizzlies defense is playing extremely well right now.

The Mavericks defense has been horrible this season. They are allowing 103.6 points per game in division matchups. It is tough for any team to win when they are allowing that many points. The Mavericks are not playing for anything in this game and the Grizzlies have won six of the eight head to head meetings between these teams. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2000 the Mavericks should underwhelm for this matchup against Memphis.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost four straight games and three of those four losses came by double digits. Ever since the Bucks secured the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs it seems they decided to give up on the remainder of the regular season. You should always play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are coming off three or more consecutive losses when playing in an April game. This system is 36-13 (74%) ATS.

The Nuggets are averaging 103.6 points per game on the road while the Bucks are allowing 100.9 points per game at home. This matchup falls into another system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 52-19 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +

The Washington Wizards are 33-16-2 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They are facing a Nets team that is playing on back to back nights traveling from Toronto after an 87-93 loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn

4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +

The Chicago Bulls have been playing down to their level of competition all season and they are getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. Chicago is 10-19 against teams with a losing record this season and when that team is winning only 25% to 40% of their games that number tightens up to 4-13 ATS. When the Bulls have been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points they are 6-22 ATS this season.

Chicago has secured their spot in the playoffs and they do not have much to play for at this point in the season. The Magic may not be making the playoffs this season, but they are still playing for pride and their home fan base. The magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing against teams from the Eastern Conference and they are 3-1-1 when those games have come against the Central division.

3* Main Event on Charlotte -

It is extremely unlikely that the Knicks will risk an injury to a key player when they face off against Charlotte tonight. New York has locked up the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference so they do not have much to play for until the postseason. New York is already missing Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby so it is almost a certainty that the remainder of the Knicks talent will not see the court tonight.

Charlotte may have missed the postseason by a long shot, but they still have something to play for. The Bobcats are playing for pride and looking for their 20th win on the season. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the Atlantic Division and playing at home should provide them with enough of an offensive boost to get past the Knicks tonight. Charlotte already owns a 2-0 ATS record over New York this season and the last game played in Charlotte was decided by just two points back when the Knicks were playing their top players.

5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Lakers UNDER

San Antonio has been trending heavily towards the under in recent games. They have gone under the total is 7 of their last 10 games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when you have a team like San Antonio that is outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 or more points per game when playing on Sunday. This system is 167-91 (65%) over the last five seasons.

The Lakers have gone under at a rate of 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record. They are also 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games played on Sunday. These teams have a strong head to head history of getting into a low scoring battle. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played at Los Angeles and it is 20-7 the last 27 meetings overall. These angles are a combined 42-11 (79%) to the under.

With the Lakers fighting to keep that 8th spot in in the Western Conference playoffs race I expect to see them really step it up defensively. Their defense certainly plays much better at home than they go on the road holding opponents to 3.6 points per game less than their overall average. The offense does not get much of a boost with just 6 tenths of a point in increased scoring production when playing at home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Raptors +

The Raptors are hot coming into this game winning four of their last five straight up and against the spread. Brooklyn is on the third leg of a three game road stretch and they are 7-19 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game and coming off two consecutive road games. They are facing a Toronto team that has shot over 45% from the field in five of their last six games. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 4-0-1 ATS. Going back even further the Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games being played at Toronto.

The Nets are not a team that is going to light up the scoreboard with points. They average just 96.4 points per game when playing on the road while the defense is allowing 95.3 points per game. The numbers for Toronto are actually identical at 96.4 points per game at home and 95.3 allowed by the Raptors. Considering how evenly matched these teams are and that the last matchup was played at Brooklyn and decided by 7 points the change in venue should be more than enough to change the outcome of this game.

3* Total Dominator on Pacers UNDER

Indiana has failed to cover the spread in their last four games. They are 19-5 to the under when they have failed to cover 3 or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The under is 5-2 in the Pacers last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. That is a perfect fit for an under angle from the Knicks as they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game. The under is also 4-1 in New York

4* No Limit Play on Suns +

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a strong history of playing poorly against Pacific Division teams. They are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games against the Pacific Division over the least three seasons. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five games and they have given up an average of 102 points per game. They are playing a Suns team that has had trouble getting points on the board, but that will have no problem scoring points in today

5* Vegas Insider on Pacers -

The Nets have picked up two wins over the Pacers this season but we should see a completely different result tonight. In the last game between these teams the Pacers shot 34.4% from the field and 22.7% on three point attempts. That anomaly is very unlikely to take place again since the Pacers have averaged 43.6% shooting at home and the Brooklyn defense is not overly talented. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Pacers when they are playing in a double revenge situation following two straight losses to their opponent when that same opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival. This system is 44-17 (72%) ATS.

The Pacers have are solid from their home court sitting on a 30-9 straight up record. They are playing with an extra day of rest over the Nets in today

3* No Doubt Rout on 76ers +

Philadelphia is the better team and even though they are playing on the road tonight, they are receiving too many points. You should always play against favorites like Washington when they are an extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days and they are a bad team winning only 25-40% of their games playing another team with a losing record. This system is 61-29 (68%) since 1996.

The 76ers are coming off a shootout with Atlanta that ended with the Hawks picking up a 124-101 victory. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when coming off a double digit loss at home and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. They face a Wizards team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Eastern Conference teams and 1-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The 76ers also own the head to head history for these teams. They are 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played at Washington.

4* Heavy Hitter on Toronto Raptors -

The Bulls have a bad habit of playing down to their level of competition. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against any team with a losing record. They are also playing on back to back nights after picking up a 7 point win over the Knicks last night. At this point in the season those back to back games can take their toll on a team and the Bulls are in a perfect spot to look past the Raptors today.

This is a repeat game from just a few nights ago in which the Raptors traveled to Chicago and picked up a three point win straight up over the Bulls. A change in venue only makes the Raptors look even more favorable since they will be playing on their home court. The Bulls offense has struggled on the road this season averaging just 93.4 points per game. They face a Raptors team that is scoring 96.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 95.5 in home games.

4* Total Dominator on Bulls/Knicks UNDER

The Bulls beat New York back on January 11th as well as on December 21st this season. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case it is New York, is revenging two consecutive straight up losses against an opponent as a favorite when they are a good team winning 60-57% of their games playing another team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 (63%) in favor of the under.

When playing at home the Bulls defense has held opponents to 90.3 points per game. Their offense has only scored slightly more than the defense is allowing at 92.8 points per game which indicates the slow pace of play for games played in Chicago. The Knicks offense has not done that well on the road averaging just 96.8 points per game and they have faced few defenses that are as tough and scrappy as this Bulls team.

Coach Tom Thibodeau for Chicago is 30-11 to the under after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls have already gone under the total in four of their last five games. The Knicks should also be playing with a little more of a defensive effort after allowing the Bulls to score 108 points in their last game.

5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER

This game falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is San Antonio, has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games and they are winning 60-75% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-14 (73%) to the under throughout the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 consecutive road games and they are 5-1 to the under when playing against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Nuggets team that is 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games and 4-1 to the under at home against teams with a winning record on the road. These team specific trends are a combined 20-3 (87%) to the under this season.

San Antonio is very solid defensively and they have held opponents to an average of 96.2 points per game this season. They are playing exceptionally well lately holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in their last 5 games. It is unfortunate for Spurs fans, but the offense is not performing well over that same time span. They are averaging that same 92.2 points per game offensively. They face a Denver defense that has held opponents to 97.7 points per game. The Spurs will be one of the better defensive units the Nuggets have faced on their home court so it is unlikely they will reach their typical scoring average which makes the under a no brainer in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Kings -

New Orleans and Sacramento will battle it out as two of the worst teams in the league face off tonight. The home team laying the points is the smart play in this game as New Orleans has won a mere 11 games on the road this season. Sacramento is one game under .500 at home and it is because of their ability to score at will. The Kings average 104.1 points per game on their home court.

New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games while Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. The Kinds are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. In the last 30 head to head meetings between these teams the home team has earned a 22-8 ATS record and in the last 7 the favorite is 5-2 ATS. All signs point to an easy Sacramento win in this game.

5* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -

The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their home games this season. Golden State is an impressive 26-12 at home this year. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Minnesota is 29-47 this season and they are an embarrassingly bad 10-27 when playing on the road.

When playing at home the Warriors are scoring 101.4 points per game and holding opponents to 97.2 points per game. They should be able to beat their averages with ease against a Timberwolves team that allows 100.6 on the road while scoring only 95.2 points per game. The Warriors are hot coming into this game averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games. They have shot just under 50% from the field while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting.

In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors picked up a one point win on the road at Minnesota. A change in venue should be more than enough to cover the -6.5 point line set for today

3* Bailout Blowout on Houston Rockets -

This matchup falls into a system to play on a good team like Houston that is outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game when they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 121-79 (61%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. This game falls into another system to play on favorites like Houston when they are an explosive offensive team averaging over 102 points per game after three or more consecutive games scoring 110 points or more against an average offensive team scoring 92-98 points per game. This system is 27-7 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Suns have not performed well against good shooting teams over the last 2 seasons as they have an 8-24 (75%) ATS record against teams making over 46% of their shots. Phoenix is one of the worst road teams in the league with a 7-30 straight up record and a defense that is allowing 105.7 points per game. That is a losing combination for Phoenix and should result in a big blowout win for the Rockets today. The last matchup between these teams being played at Houston was won by 30 points by the Rockets.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +

The Knicks were in a shootout with the Thunder on Sunday in a game that ended with a 125-120 final score. This matchup falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington after a loss by 10 or more and playing against an opponent that is coming off a combined score of 215 points or more. This system is 114-72 (61.3%) since 1996.

The Knicks are not the Miami Heat so it is likely their win streak will come to an end soon. It may not happen in today's game against Washington, but this game should certainly end much closer than the 10 points we are receiving. They are facing a Washington team that has been undervalued on the road this season which has led to a winning ATS road record for the Wizards. Washington

3* Main Event on Michigan -

Louisville does not have a great history against Big Ten teams. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Big Ten opponents. Michigan on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Big East teams. The Wolverines have been undervalued throughout the NCAA Tournament which has led to a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games. Michigan is outscoring Louisville offensively this season averaging 75.2 points per game which is impressive coming from a Big Ten conference loaded with defensive talent.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS against teams shooting 48% or better this season and Michigan has averaged 48.3% in all games. Michigan has played extremely well in neutral court games this season as they have a 9-1 ATS record. The Wolverines defense has held opponents to 62.8 points per game. They also do a great job of avoiding turnovers which makes them a matchup nightmare for this Louisville team that thrives on forcing turnovers. Michigan averages just 9 per game and with Burke running the offense they should have no problem staying around that average against the Cardinals tonight.

3* Bailout Blowout on Portland +

The Mavericks are really struggling having lost two of their last three games. Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the road. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a straight up win. In head to head matchups between these teams the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Portland may not have a great overall record on the season, but they are a respectable 22-15 at home. The Trail Blazers average 99.8 points per game on their home court and they are a solid free throw shooting team at 78.2%. They face a Mavericks team that is allowing 103.5 points per game on the road and sitting on a 14-24 road record. Dallas is poor defensively when it comes for forcing turnovers too. The Mavericks average just 14 per game. Take the points, but the oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team in this matchup.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -

Detroit has lost their last two games against Boston and Minnesota. This game falls into a system to play against underdogs like Detroit when they are revenging a loss against their opponent and they are off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 99-50 (66%) ATS.

This matchup falls into another system to play on road favorites like Chicago when they are a good ball handling team committing 14.5 or less turnovers per game playing against a poor pressure defense team forcing 14.5 or less turnovers and when they are holding opponents to 43.5% to 45.5% shooting against a poor defensive team like Detroit that is allowing 45.5% to 47.5% after 42 or more games. This system is 187-117 (62%) ATS since 1996.

3* Bailout Blowout on Syracuse +

The Orange have looked extremely impressive throughout the NCAA Tournament. Michigan on the other hand has had to overcome a couple very close games before beating Florida in their last matchup. The Big East is arguably the best defensive conference in college basketball this season and Syracuse is one of the best Big East teams. In their last five games, the Orange have held opponents to 52.2 points per game, a full 12 points lower than Michigan

5* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER

The Hawks offense has been struggling on the road. They average 95.9 points per game and they will have their hands full against a San Antonio defense that has held opponents to 93.7 points per game at home. The Atlanta Hawks are 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are 5-1 to the under following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. They are playing in a back to back situation which also favors the under at a rate of 10-3 the last 13 games playing with no rest.

The Spurs have also gone under the total in their last 4 games and they are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southeast division teams. San Antonio is 13-3 to the under in their last 16 games following a straight up loss this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played at San Antonio. The Spurs defense has played extremely well at home. The offense has been struggling recently averaging only 93.2 points per game in their last five games. All signs point to this game ending with a low score.

5* Final Four Game of the Year on Louisville -

Louisville is one of the only teams left in the NCAA Tournament that has dominated every opponent they have faced. The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are a well coached team which explains why they have an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games.

The Louisville defense is one of the best in college basketball holding opponents to 58.1 points per game while their offense scores 74.3 per game. That is a 16.2 point margin playing in the Big East which is arguably the first or second strongest conference in college basketball this year. The Cardinals defense gets a lot of points off of turnovers as they force an average of 19 per game.

Wichita State has had a nice run in the NCAA Tournament but they were playing in the West region which was hands down the least talented. The Shockers offense scores 69.8 points per game which ranks them 112th among division one teams. Their statistics were built on a season played against weak competition in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Cinderella Story for the Shockers was great, but reality will settle in when they face the overall top seed in the Tournament.

5* No Brainer on Phoenix Suns +

Golden State is coming into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games and a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Golden State is also 0-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Golden State defense has been the biggest problem when playing on the road. The Warriors are allowing 102.8 points per game while averaging 99.9 in scoring.

In head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 6-2 over the last 8 games. The Warriors have not won more than two consecutive games since February and their poor play on the road may prevent them from picking up that third win today. Phoenix has held opponents to 97.1 points per game and they have covered two of their last three games when playing at home.

In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors pulled off a 10 point victory on their home court. Considering we have a change in venue and the oddsmakers have left the line the same the Suns have become the value play in this rematch. Phoenix shot 53% from the three point line in the last game and the soft Golden State defense playing on the road should make for an easy cover for the Suns.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Milwaukee Bucks +

Milwaukee has a history of playing in close games against Atlantic Division teams. They are 47-18 ATS in their last 65 against Atlantic teams. In head to head history between these teams the Bucks own a 7-2 ATS record in the last 9 games played at New York. The Knicks have allowed 48.5% and 50% shooting in their last two games so they are trending in the wrong direction.

The Milwaukee offense has played well this season averaging 99.2 points per game. They are a good rebounding team pulling in 52 boards per game against a Knicks team averaging only 48 rebounds per game at home. The Bucks also have an advantage when it comes to assists, blocks and avoiding foul trouble. They are getting too many points today in what should be a very close game.

3* Total Dominator on Santa Clara UNDER

The last game between these teams being played at George Mason gave us a combined total of 139 points. The only reason the first game of this three game series went over the total is because Santa Clara shot 42% on three point attempts and over 80% from the free throw line. The Broncos have averaged 36.2% from three point range and 72.7% from the free throw line. The anomaly of 42% is unlikely to occur in today

3* Oddsmakers Error on Dallas +

The Mavericks are coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, scoring only 81 points in that game. They have had a day of rest coming into today

3* Main Event on Iowa -

Iowa is 14-1 (93%) ATS when playing against a team winning 60% to 80% of their games this season. Iowa has been undervalued most of the season which has led to an overall 24-9 ATS record. They are 11-6 ATS when playing away from home this season and the Hawkeyes defense has held opponents to 62.5 points per game. Baylor has not faced a tough Big Ten team like Iowa and that makes the Hawkeyes the smart play in this game.

Iowa has faced much tougher opponents than Baylor all season in the Big Ten. They had wins over many of the Big Ten teams that made the NCAA tournament. They are a young team but have improved each week and they are playing some great basketball right now. Baylor

5* Total No Brainer on Hornets/Warriors UNDER

Golden State has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. They are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southwest Division teams and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. They are well rested coming into this game so there should not be any tired legs on the defensive end of the court.

The Hornets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The extra rest for both teams should help improve their defensive numbers. Golden State is allowing 97.4 points per game at home while New Orleans is allowing 97.6 points per game. The Hornets defense has been better in their last five games holding opponents to 94.8 per game.

The style of play from these teams indicates this game should be low scoring. The last time these teams met was back on March 18th and the total was 196 points with the teams scoring a combined 165 points in a 93-72 game. Both teams are playing well right now with the Hornets winning four of their last six and Golden State winning five of their last seven. These recent win streaks have been because of solid defensive performances.

3* Bailout Blowout on Jazz -

Denver is coming off a home game against Brooklyn in which they were outrebounded by 19 boards. The Nuggets pulled off the win because they shot 57% from the field but that is not likely to happen again today when they play at Utah. This matchup falls into a system to play against underdogs like Denver when they are 3+ on rebounding margin and coming off a game where they were outrebounded by their opponent by 15 or more boards. This system is 51-21 (71%) ATS.

The Jazz have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 28-9 straight up record and a 23-13 ATS record. They are averaging 100.9 points per game at home while holding opponents to 95 points per game. Denver may be scoring 103.4 points per game on the road, but their defense is allowing 104.4 per game. You can

3* No Doubt Rout on Celtics -

Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their road games. They are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. They are facing a Detroit team that is having a horrible season with a 25-50 record.

The Celtics have struggled recently and a game against this soft Detroit team is just what they need to bounce back. Boston has a 25-11 overall record at home while Detroit is 10-28 when playing on the road. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Atlantic Division teams and they are 0-5 ATS following a straight up win.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Hawks -

The Atlanta Hawks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing on 1 day of rest. They have a great home record at 24-13 straight up and average 99.9 points per game on their home court. The Knicks are averaging 96.1 points per game on the road and allowing 96.6 on the defensive end. Obviously, anytime your defense is allowing more points than you are scoring it is a recipe for disaster.

These teams last met on January 27th in New York with the Knicks squeaking out a 2 point win over the Hawks. A change in venue should be more than enough to change the end result of this game. New York is suffering through a lot of injuries right now so it looks as though their 9 game win streak will come to an end tonight against this solid Atlanta Hawks team.