|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-05-13||Sacramento Kings +7.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||93-113||Loss||-108||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Sacramento Kings +7.5 over New Jersey Nets
I'm going against the Nets who are off a back-to-back and to compound matters went into double OT last night with the Washington Wizards, one of the worst teams in the league. This forced Lopez, Williams, and Johnson to all play more than 44 minutes, which should give the stars some tired legs for this one tonight. This is New Jersey's eight game in 12 games, so not a good time to be coming off a double overtime game the night before.
The Kings are off an impressive 105-96 win in Toronto in which they led by 19 going into the fourth quarter, so even though they are on a back-to-back they should be a little more rested as none of their guys played more than 35 minutes.
Sacramento has now covered in five straight and in eight of their last nine. I think the odds makers continue to discount how much this team has improved lately and I'll go with them again here tonight.
|01-05-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5||80-95||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 185.5
These two teams have played twice already this year and have played some pretty low scoring games. Back on 11/14 the bucks won 99-85, staying under the 189.5 point total then on 12/18 the teams went over the 185 point total by a few points with their 98-93 final.
Since that game this Pacers team has been playing some pretty low scoring games, allowing just one opponents since to score more than 91 points. Milwaukee has been playing some high scoring games against high scoring teams, but that has only worked in our favor to create value now that they are playing a slower pace team.
Indiana is allowing only 88.6 ppg at home to teams scoring 96.7 ppg and they are only scoring 91.7 ppg against teams that allow 97.8. Both of these teams are going to be fighting for a playoff spot this year so divisional games like this mean playoff like intensity even in early January.
I know both teams are off back-to-backs, but each game in with plenty of rest before that. Indiana had five days off over Christmas and the Bucks played only once between 12/22 and 12/29 so I don't think either will have tired legs. This one is a defensive battle and stays UNDER.
|01-05-13||St John's v. Cincinnati UNDER 138||Top||53-52||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on St. John's Cincinnati UNDER 138
St. John's is coming off a high scoring game against Villanova with a final of 86-98. Sure, the game went into overtime but it was already 83-83 after two halves, blowing over the 136.5 point total. Cincinnati is also coming off an over of their own when they beat Pitt by a score of 70-61 back on New Year's Eve. That game saw a low total posted of 125 and since the Bearcats were six point dogs that means they were supposed to score under 60 points.
The previous game has opened up some value for us with this total being a few points higher than it should be. Cincinnati had put up scores of 60-45, 68-58, and 54-55 the three games prior to Pitt. In fact, they haven't allowed another opponent to score more than 60 against them since Oregon did back on 11/24.
The last two years these two teams have struggled to put up points when playing each other and have gone UNDER the total each time. Back on 1/22/11 Cincinnati won 53-51 with a total of 129. On 2/13/11 it was St. John's 59-57 with a total of 128. Last year saw St. John's win in Cincy by a final of 57-55 with a total of 133.5 and the Bearscats revenged the loss by winning 76-54 on the road. That was enough to get under the 134 total posted.
So, the last four have gone UNDER the total in this series and yet this total is higher than any of the previous. Don't expect a lot of points Saturday as this one stays low.
|01-05-13||Towson +9.5 v. Drexel||69-66||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Towson +9.5
Drexel put a beating on Towson last year at home by a score of 60-27, but these two teams have been heading in different directions ever since. Drexel has been hurt by the injury to Chris Fouch, who broke his ankle in the Penn game, the team is just 3-11 ATS since he's been out of the lineup.
Towson has pulled off ATS wins in four of their last five games. It all started when they played at Georgetown and nearly pulled off the upset, then played Temple tough next time out. Their last two lined games came at Oregon State and at UNC-Wilmington were they pulled off upset wins. You can't sleep on this team as everyone remembers their one win from a year ago and assumes they are still one of the worst in college basketball. They aren't and they are going to want to make a statement here today against a conference rival.
A solid system backs our play that says to take double digit road underdogs who are off an upset win as a road underdog if they still have a losing record on the season. Since Towson is 6-8 they fit this system that is 54-23 over the last five years.
|01-05-13||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -2.5||67-73||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Kansas State -2.5
Oklahoma State has only played one true road game all year long and that was a loss at Virginia Tech by 10 points. The Cowboys are also coming off a home loss to Gonzaga. Their impressive wins came in the middle of November against Tennessee and NC State but haven't done much to impress since.
Kansas State is playing well under new coach Bruce Weber. Their only two losses were on neutral floors to Michigan and Gonzaga. This team did pull a nice win off over Florida a few weeks ago and I like how they are defending and rebounding the basketball.
I think Kansas State is the better team and should be laying four to five at home here today. I"ll lay the small number.
|01-04-13||Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 191||96-89||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER 191.5
Two good teams playing on ESPN tonight and you can expect both of them to bring the intensity to the defensive side of the floor. Even though these two teams play contrasting styles I think Chicago will try to slow the Heat down as the Bulls are 31-18 UNDER when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons.
Miami shoots a lot of three pointers and does a good job of knocking them down, but the Bulls are 14-4 for the UNDER against teams who shoot 18 or more 3's per game this year. Miami's 103.6 ppg is one of the highest in the league but the Bulls are 15-5 UNDER against teams who average 103+ ppg the last three years.
The last two times these two teams met the total went under 183.5 and 185 by final scores of 83-72 and 86-96. These two have a history of tough games that are low scoring and I don't see why that doesn't continue here tonight.
|01-04-13||Manhattan v. St. Peters -3||55-53||Loss||-106||11 h 38 m||Show|
3* CBB Heavy Hitter on St. Peter's -3 over Manhattan
Neither one of these teams is going to be mistake as good, but I think St. Peter's is better plus they get the home court advantage. Manhattan is just 3-9 on the year and 1-8 on the road. They are scoring just 56.7 ppg against teams that allow 66.4 while shooting 38.8% from the floor. They have played a tougher schedule than St. Peter's but at 3-9 they have only won as favorites of 6 points or more.
You know that St. Peter's is going to be out for revenge in this game. Manhattan beat them up pretty bad twice last year, including by 22 points here on their home floor and by 26 points the first time around.
Both teams played Long Island just a few short weeks ago. Manhattan lost by a score of 48-75 while the Peacocks won 80-67.
Two of the Jaspers best players are dealing with ankle injuries. George Beamon has missed six in a row and is averaging 16.8 ppg this year and Michael Alvarado was sidelined for most of the last game, also with an ankle injury. Without Beamon the team only has one win and that was over Siena.
|01-03-13||No. Colorado +13 v. Weber State||54-79||Loss||-106||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* Public Blood Bath on Northern Colorado +13 over Weber State
Weber State has looked pretty good this year while Northern Colorado has not. A close look at the schedule though shows that the Bears have played the tougher schedule so things might not be quite as bad as they seem.
Weber State has six wins in their last seven games and is coming off a 110-45 beating of Southwest. The other teams they beat are E Washington, Portland State, Utah Valley State, and UC-Irvine. Those really aren't that impressive of wins to me, but what it does do is create a few points of value in the ugly underdog.
Favorites of 10 or more points off a 20+ win are just 82-41 ATS the last five seasons when playing a team the is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the points here tonight.
|01-03-13||Colorado +11.5 v. Arizona||83-92||Win||100||13 h 14 m||Show|
3* Marquee Mismatch on Colorado +11.5
A lot of points for Arizona to be laying a pretty good Colorado team tonight. The Buffaloes have surprised me a little bit with their 10-2 start, beating some decent teams like Dayton, Baylor, and Murray State on neutral floors and Fresno State on the road. They do have one ugly 36 point loss to Kansas that I think gives us a couple of points of value here with this line. Most bettors will look at Arizona and Kansas as comparable, see what Colorado do as an 11 point underdog in Lawrence, and run towards the chalk.
Arizona is in a tough spot though. They haven't played since Christmas day, which might create a little rust for their offense. It's always tough coming off the extended layoff on the defensive end too, because no matter how much conditioning you do in practice, being in "game shape" is another story altogether.
Colorado knows they can hang with the wildcats, they beat Arizona twice last season. Once was in Boulder, but the other came in the Pac-12 tournament. I'll take the points here in this one.
|01-03-13||San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks -1||83-100||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
4* Main Event Major on Knicks -1 over Spurs
It's always tough going against a hot team like San Antonio and taking a team that is struggling like the Knicks, but that has opened up some value in the line here tonight. The Spurs have strung together seven straight victories and have covered the spread in five of their last six. New York on the other hand has lost three of their last four and covered only once in their last six games.
However, this team knows that they can hang with San Antonio, they already did so back on 11/15 when they visited the Spurs and came away with a four point win. The Spurs have had a fairly brutal schedule here lately as this is their sixth game in nine nights. I think the fatigue starts to catch up with them as they fall in New York.
Solid situation supporting our play on New York says take home teams of between +3/-3 that are off an upset loss as a favorite who have a winning percentage of above 60%. These teams are 81-43 ATS since 1996. Plus, the Knicks are 23-10 ATS at home as a favorite of six points or less the last three years.
|01-03-13||Louisiana-Lafayette +2 v. Florida Atlantic||70-75||Loss||-110||12 h 14 m||Show|
3* False Favorite on Louisiana Lafayette +2 over Florida Atlantic
The average bettors looks at this game and sees a team with a worse record getting only two points on the road and is all over Florida Atlantic. However, Lafayette actually has a better scoring margin and has played a tougher schedule.
Plus, Lafayette has owned this series as of late. Last year they won by 12 points at home as 2.5 point underdogs and two years ago they went to Florida Atlantic and won by 8 points as double digit underdogs.
Mike Jarvis is the coach of Florida Atlantic and he is just 16-31 ATS since arriving in the role of a favorite while Lafayette is 49-28 ATS when going on the road playing a team with a losing record. They win the games they know they have a chance in.
|01-02-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Houston Rockets -9.5||92-104||Win||100||16 h 42 m||Show|
3* Double Digit Blood Bath on Houston Rockets -9.5
We backed the Hornets last night and they cost us with some poor play down the stretch. Now they have to pack up and head to Houston to take on one of the hottest teams in the league in Houston.
New Orleans has reached the 100 point barrier just one time in their last 15 games, and that was back on 12/14 against Minnesota when they gave up 113. Houston on the other hand has scored 109 or more in six of their last eight games.
The Rockets score too many points for New Orleans to catch up. Houston is a good 3-point shooting team who shoots a lot from outside, while the Hornets allow opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. I'm expecting a healthy amount of points, so don't have any problem laying just under double digits.
|01-02-13||Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -10.5||81-89||Loss||-110||15 h 43 m||Show|
3* Money Maker on Pacers -10.5
Washington had a chance to pick up a much needed win last night against the Mavericks but an awful third quarter did this team in again. That made it 10 losses in their last 11 games and I don't like their chances going to Indiana to face a Pacers team that has won five of their last six and eight of their last 10 games.
The Pacers have been playing well this year by playing suffocating defense and holding opponents to 7 ppg below their season average. Washington on the other hand makes everyone look defensively, scoring 9 ppg less than their opponents allow.
Even though this is going to be a low scoring game, I like the home team to put enough on the board to cover the double digits.
|01-02-13||Rutgers +16 v. Syracuse||53-78||Loss||-110||15 h 4 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Rutgers +16
I think this is a good matchup for a Rutgers team that comes into this game with a 9-2 record on the year and plays tough on the defensive end of the floor. The Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to just 40.5% shooting while converting on 48.3% of their shots this year.
They do a good job of defending the 3-point shot, but don't take a lot of outside shots themselves. This is important since Syracuse does a great job of defending the perimeter, only allowing 26.4% from deep.
The Orange are a pretty solid basketball team, but I'm not scared to take the 16 points here today with a solid team that slows the pace down, shoots a high percentage from the floor and is good defensively.
|01-02-13||Pennsylvania +21 v. Butler||57-70||Win||100||15 h 3 m||Show|
3* Public Blood Bath on Penn +21
Solid system supports our play on Penn today that says to fade favorites of 20 points or more who have covered the spread in four of their last five. This system is 41-19 (68.3%) over the last five seasons.
Penn is not a good team, but their last two losses weren't quite as bad as they may initially seem. Being an Ivy League school finals are taken seriously, so the team had 12 days off between Villanova and Delaware. You can probably excuse them for being a little rusty in that one. Last time out though this team lost to Wagner, but again that game was played more than a week after Delaware game due to Christmas.
On the other hand you have Butler that has rattled off seven straight wins, including a big win over Indiana back on 12/15. This team has covered four out of five and is prime for a letdown. The way both of these teams have been playing lately sets us up for some nice value here tonight.
|01-02-13||Nebraska +21 v. Ohio State||44-70||Loss||-110||15 h 34 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Nebraska +21
Ohio State put a couple of beatings down on Nebraska last year, winning 79-45 in Lincoln and by 31 at home. The Huskers are a better team this year and you can bet those two whoppings were hammered home to them as they prepared for this game against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State on the other hand is in a prime look ahead spot as they travel to Illinois to face the 13-1 Illini in their next game. You think these players are worried about a team they beat by 65 points in two games last year or a team that is up and coming to threaten them for the Big Ten title? I'll take the points here with what should be the hungrier team.
|01-02-13||Providence +18 v. Louisville||62-80||Push||0||14 h 5 m||Show|
3* Vegas Insider on Providence +18
Couple of good systems supporting our play here say to fade home favorites or 10 or more points after 7 or more wins in a row. This system is 182-118 (60.7%) the last five years. Another system play here is to take underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite when they are playing a team that won but didn't cover last time out. This system is 93-50 (65%) since 1997.
Providence is a good team that is showing us some value now that they are coming off two straight losses as a favorite. The one against Brown was particularly bad since they were double digit chalk, but losing by one when your opponent shoots 50% the first game after Christmas isn't that much of a shock to me.
Louisville is a good team that is coming off a tough win against their rivals in Kentucky. It's tough saying they won't be up for their first Big East game of the season, but this is a prime letdown spot for the Cardinals.
|01-01-13||Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5||Top||95-86||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team.
Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day.
The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night.
|01-01-13||Connecticut +6.5 v. Marquette||76-82||Win||100||23 h 52 m||Show|
3* Marquee Mismatch on UConn +6.5 over Marquette
This is the Big East opener for both teams, so you know each one of them will be giving it their full attention, but the Huskies will have some extra motivation. Marquette came up to Connecticut last February and put a 79-64 beating down on the Huskies, including leading by 14 points at the half so it was never even close.
Fast forward to this season and you'll see UConn off to a very good start at 10-2. Their two losses were by four and six points to New Mexico and NC State. I think both of those teams are a step up in class over Marquette and yet the Huskies are getting 6.5 points here tonight.
Marquette backers are going to look at UConn and see how this team has only covered twice so far, in their first game against Michigan State and in their last against Washington. They also haven't had a true road game yet this year, but that is what is giving us a couple points of value here tonight. The Huskies have played the tougher schedule and the win over Michigan State really stands out to me as this being the better team.
|12-31-12||Harvard +13 v. Saint Marys CA||Top||69-70||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
5* CBB No Limit on Harvard +13
This is a great matchup for Harvard as they have made 40% of their 3-point shots on the season and are taking on a St. Mary's team that is giving up 38% from deep range. The other thing Harvard does is get to the line, they are taking 22 free throws a game against teams that allow 19. St. Mary's allows 21 free throws a game against teams that shoot 19. You should see Harvard taking quite a bit of free throws and that's good news as they have hit 74.3% of them on the year.
Another reason to back Harvard is the rest factor. St. Mary's played yesterday against Yale and also played on the 27th against Rhode Island. In the NBA you are used to seeing this kind of thing, but college kids aren't used to this quick of a turnaround and it normally shows with tired legs.
Harvard is a team that slows the pace down quite a bit and in those situations taking double digits is a gift. I'll ride the Harvard Crimson tonight on ESPN2.
|12-31-12||North Texas +14 v. Middle Tennessee St||57-75||Loss||-106||21 h 37 m||Show|
3* Heavy Hitter on North Texas +14
This is a few too many points for Middle Tennessee to be laying today even though I like this team quite a bit. They have beat some SEC teams in Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, plus they knocker off UAB by 20 points.
The issue I have is that they can't take advantage of the Mean Green weakness, which is defending the perimeter. Middle Tennessee only shoots 14 deep balls a game. On the other hand they are very good at defending the 3-point shot, only allowing opponents to shoot 27.8%. The problem is North Texas doesn't shoot a lot of three point shots either so that strength is largely wasted.
Middle Tennessee went into North Texas last year as five point favorites and barely walked away with a 2-point win. If you just look at scoring margins and records this line looks about right, but the way these two teams match up favors North Texas so I think they keep it close and get the cover here today.
|12-31-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets OVER 206.5||Top||104-123||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5
The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season.
Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago.
The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games.
Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it.
|12-31-12||Bowling Green +14.5 v. Temple||57-75||Loss||-106||15 h 37 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Bowling Green +14.5 over Temple
This is a lot of points for Temple to be laying to Bowling Green today. The line is slightly overpriced here since the Owls are coming off the big upset win against Syracuse and they have had 8 days rest until now to think about it.
Temple has shot 40% or less in their last five games and that includes wins over teams like Towson and Alcorn State, and a loss to Canisius.
Bowling Green played host to Michigan State this year and lost by 11. they also went to South Florida and lost by 3. Temple might be a little better than South Florida, but they are nowhere near as good as the Spartans so I don't think they will give Bowling Green their worst loss of the season.
Temple has beaten two teams by 15 points, and that was Buffalo and Alcorn State. They only beat Rice by 14 points and the Owls are awful.
System supporting our play here that says to take double digit underdogs in December who are coming off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 207-126 (62.2%) since 1997. Bowling Green fits the bill after losing by 3 points as 3 point chalk at North Dakota.
|12-30-12||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 195.5||96-107||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Clippers/Jazz OVER 195.5
These two teams played a 116-114 game on Friday night and I expect there to be a lot of scoring again on Sunday. In fact, if you look at the previous game the two played back on 12/3 that final was 105-104 as well, but last year the Jazz and the Clippers scoring 201 and 212 in their final two meetings. When these two franchises have squared off recently, a lot of points have been put up.
The Clippers have been putting up a lot of points recently, reaching the 100 point barrier in four straight games. They are averaging 104.1 ppg at home this season while the Jazz are giving up 102 ppg on the road. Utah hasn't given up less than 90 points since back on 12/5, a span of 11 games so with LA's prolific offense I don't see them having much trouble reaching the 100 point barrier.
The Jazz are 63-36 for the OVER on the road after scoring 110 points or more in their previous game and 52-34 OVER when the total is between 190 and 200 the past three years.
|12-30-12||Southern Illinois -4 v. Missouri State||59-70||Loss||-110||10 h 21 m||Show|
3* No Doubt ATS Rout on Southern Illinois -4
Missouri State has been terrible this year, losing eight straight games and only covering once in either tries. Their shooting has been abysmal. In the last five games they have shot 35.5%. They aren't grabbing any of their own rebounds either, in fact they are just nabbing 25 boards per game over their last five.
Southern Illinois isn't great, but they should bring their "A" game today to open Missouri Valley conference play. This is a team that has lost six straight in the series and will be looking for some serious payback on Sunday.
Missouri State is 0-9 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games the let two years and 0-8 ATS after three or more straight losses.
|12-29-12||Boston Celtics +3.5 v. Golden State Warriors||83-101||Loss||-105||16 h 16 m||Show|
3* False Favorite on Boston Celtics +3.5
I love this matchup with the gritty veterans from Boston taking on the up and comers in the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been putting up a lot of points lately, scoring 94 or more in six straight games but their last two victories have come with only 94 and 96 points, so they are slowing down a little bit.
Boston is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers in which they were blown out of the water, but this group should rebound for the short road trip to Golden State. The Celtics are 23-7 ATS on the road after an embarrassing road loss in which they scored less than 80 points since 1996.
The Warriors offense has been explosive, but their defense not so much. Boston is shooting at a high rate from the floor at 46.6% which isn't a good matchup for the Warriors who are just 18-32 ATS against teams who make 46% of their shots or higher from the floor the last three years.
|12-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets||Top||124-94||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with.
The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday.
|12-29-12||Fairfield v. Old Dominion +3||55-54||Win||100||20 h 7 m||Show|
3* Vegas Insider on Old Dominion +2.5
Fairfield is over-valued in this spot here today coming in off four straight covers and a straight up win as an 11 point underdog over St. Joseph's. This puts them in a little bit of a letdown spot as they see Old Dominion on the schedule at 2-10 on the year.
Old Dominion though has played better than their record would indicate and has some momentum of their own off a 2 points win against Virginia, this is the same Virginia team that beat Fairfield by 9 points earlier in the year.
The public sees a 2-10 team and immediately turns their head, but this team has covered in three of their last four games, missing the fourth cover by a single point at College of Charleston. This is a fairly good rebounding team, which makes up for their low shooting percentage and gives them a chance to keep this game close. I think you see the Monarchs pull the upset here Saturday.
|12-29-12||Towson +15.5 v. Oregon State||67-66||Win||100||17 h 8 m||Show|
3* Major Mismatch on Towson State +15.5
I like taking this many points when a team has played as good of defense as Towson State has this year. This team is holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the floor and limited Georgetown to just 29% from the field.
Towson State has won just once in their last six games, but a closer look shows they played Georgetown to a 40-46 game and Temple to a 61-72 final, covering both times.
You look at Oregon State and see their 9-2 record with five straight wins and it can be a little misleading. This team has only played two lined games in their last five and failed to cover against San Diego as 7.5 point favorites and Portland State laying 13.
Nobody is going to be on Towson today, but in a low scoring game if you can catch 15.5 points it's too good of value to pass up.
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech v. Brigham Young UNDER 152.5||Top||71-97||Loss||-110||15 h 8 m||Show|
5* CBB Total No Brainer on Virginia Tech BYU UNDER 152.5
Lot of points here today when Virginia Tech & BYU meet up in Salt Lake. The Hokies are coming off a poor showing against Colorado State where they scored just 52 points and lost by 36 points. They haven't reached the 75 point barrier since 12/1, a stark contrast to their high scoring ways to start the year off. Va Tech has played good defensively though allowing three of their last five opponents to shoot less than 37% from the floor.
BYU comes into this game having allowed less than 70 points to four of their last five opponents and has given up 38% or less shooting to three of their last five.
On the year neither one of these teams is close to averaging this many points, and both teams have held opponents to low shooting percentages. Last year these two met and the score was 29-25 at half before a second half outburst took the final to 70-68. Everything about this game points towards the UNDER.
|12-28-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +3||116-114||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3
LA's winning streak is in jeopardy tonight as it goes up against one of the best home teams in the league. The Jazz are 9-3 at home this season. They went 25-8 at home last season. The Clippers have managed to win their last two in Utah, but those wins came by a total of three points. The Jazz are 29-4 at home versus the Clippers since 1996.
In terms of the point spread, we find that the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We also find that the Clippers are 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings and 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Utah.
The Jazz take pride in their home-court dominance so the fact they are coming off a double-digit loss at home can't be sitting well. The Jazz have responded following such defeats and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Bet Utah.
|12-28-12||Denver Nuggets -2 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||106-85||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing.
The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games.
This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver.
The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game.
In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver.
|12-28-12||Houston Rockets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 214||116-122||Loss||-110||9 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Spurs Under 214
The Rockets and Spurs combined for 260 points the last time they met. However, they hadn't combined to score more than 207 points in any of the previous five matchups. With this in mind, I'll gladly take the Under.
The Spurs have finished under the total in six of their last eight games, and the Rockets have played to the under in five of their last eight. The Spurs have come in under the number in four of their last five at home, and the Rockets have finished below the number in four of their last five on the road.
Looking back even further into the history of this matchup, we find that the Under is 29-14 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in San Antonio.
When these two met Dec. 10, they combined for 30 three-point makes that totaled 90 points. They only average a total of 19 three-point makes so we should see 33 less points scored if these teams hit their averages. Plus, we must factor in that the previous meeting went into OT and that 20 points were scored in the extra frame. With this in mind, we should see right around 207 total points scored in this one. Bet the Under.
|12-28-12||Iona v. St. Joseph's -6.5||91-96||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on St. Joseph's -6.5
Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Villanova and Fairfield, and further fueled by last season's 5-point loss at Iona, expect St. Joseph's to take care of business this evening.
The Hawks are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. The Gaels, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points.
This experienced St. Joe's squad is 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 61.6.
Iona, on the other hand, is 1-12 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. Lay the number with St. Joe's in this highly motivated spot.
|12-27-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-106||Loss||-107||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +8.5
The Clippers are being overvalued because they have won 14 in a row. Don't think for a second that this experienced Boston squad isn't capable of giving them all they want and more.
Boston has been a terrific investment when catching points on the road under coach Doc Rivers. It is 126-98 ATS as a road underdog under his watch. It is also 46-30 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under Rivers and has lost these games by only 5.7 points on average.
As a 5-point dog in last season's meeting in LA, the Celtics took down the Clippers 94-85. The underdog has been a golden investment in this series as it is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Boston.
|12-27-12||Rhode Island v. Saint Marys CA -16.5||59-82||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Saint Mary's -16.5
Motivated by Sunday's upset loss at Northern Iowa, St. Mary's will be ready to run up the score at home against an inferior opponent tonight.
The Gaels are 5-0 at home where they are winning by an average of 28.8 points. It is significant that they failed to cover the number last game as they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
Rhode Island has won its last two against SMU and Georgia State but is still only 13-29-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a SU win. These two victories stemmed from keeping their opponent off the offensive glass, but they'll have a tough time keeping the Gaels off the offensive glass at home where they are averaging 12 offensive boards per game.
Rhode Island is 0-10 ATS after 2 straight games of giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Mary's.
|12-26-12||Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-107||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Off yesterday's big statement win over the Thunder, expect the Heat to suffer a letdown.
Miami has been far from invincible on the road where it is just 5-4 and has only one win of more than 10 points. One of its road defeats came to the lowly Washington Wizards so Miami can certainly be had here.
The Bobcats have lost 15 in a row, but they have been competitive at home during this stretch. Each of their last three and six of seven home losses during this span have come by less than 10 points. Two of these were against the Clippers and Knicks so they have shown they can take good teams right down to the wire.
The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-25-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. Miami Heat||97-103||Loss||-105||26 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on OKC Thunder +3
Motivated by a loss at Minnesota in its last game, and especially motivated by four consecutive losses to the Heat in last season's NBA Finals, Oklahoma City will want this game just a little bit more.
History is pretty clear on which side is the right one in this situation. Consider that underdogs that have won five or six of their last seven games, provided they have won 75.0 percent or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 60.0 to 75.0 percent of its games, are 100-54 ATS since 1996. The teams fitting into this scenario were underdogs of 3.7 points on average but lost by only 1.3 points on average.
The Thunder have been money in the bank in road games following an upset loss on the road. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS in these spots the last three seasons, winning by an average of 8.0 points. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take the Thunder.
|12-25-12||Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 188.5||Top||93-76||Win||100||21 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Nets Under 188.5
The earliest Christmas day game has gone under the total every year going back to 2004. Apparently, these guys don't like getting up early. I expect this trend to continue.
The last meeting between these teams went under as just 178 total points were scored. This one has the potential to be even lower scoring. The Celtics have allowed the Nets to score 102 and 95 points, respectively, in each of the season's first two meetings. The defensive effort in those games can't be sitting well with a Boston squad that has prided itself on defense under the watch of Doc Rivers. I'm expecting a much better defensive showing from the C's this time around.
The Nets, which rank sixth in the NBA with 93.9 points allowed per game, have been getting it done on the defensive end all season. I expect no different in this one.
The Nets have finished under the total in each of their last four games. Also, the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two.
Boston has gone over the total in its last three but is 14-4 under in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. We have seen only 178.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.
|12-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5||Top||92-95||Loss||-105||7 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -5.5
The 76ers are struggling to win on the road. They have dropped each of their last five road games with the last four road defeats coming by seven points or more. Consequently, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Since the beginning of last season, Philly is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). It has lost these contests by an average score of 96.4 to 84.5. It is also 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 97.8 to 90.0.
The Nets will be the fresher team as they have had three full days to gear up. They should also be the hungrier team as they look to snap a three-game skid in the series. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more. Bet the Nets.
|12-23-12||St Mary's CA v. Northern Iowa +2.5||75-82||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats outside Cedar Falls, and further fueled by a 16-point setback at St. Mary's last season, expect Northern Iowa to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.
The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning these games by an average of 21.8 points. They won't be the least bit intimidated by the Gaels as they have already stepped on the floor with teams like Louisville, Stanford, Memphis and Iowa and UNLV.
N. Iowa does a pretty good job of getting to the foul line at home where it is averaging 21 free throw attempts and connecting on 16 of those. This doesn't bode well for St. Mary's which is giving up 24 free throw attempts in games played away from home this season. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good free throw shooting teams that making 72% of their attempts or better over the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average score of 71.4 to 65.3 in these contests. Take Northern Iowa.
|12-22-12||Duquesne v. Louisiana-Lafayette -3||79-91||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on UL Lafayette -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and out for revenge for last season's embarrassing 19-point loss at Duquesne, expect UL Lafayette to bounce back in a big way this evening.
Duquesne enters off a win over Western Michigan but is a poor 1-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. It is 0-8 ATS in road games when checking in with 2 wins in 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 78.3 to 60.9.
The Dukes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
In addition, the Ragin' Cajuns are on a reliable 65-43 ATS run in games when the line is +3 to -3. Lay the number.
|12-22-12||Utah Jazz +9.5 v. Miami Heat||89-105||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +9.5
Based on the line, oddsmakers are begging for the money to come in on the Heat following three consecutive double-digit wins. We won't take the bait. The Jazz are a quality basketball team that has performed well against good opponents. They played the Clippers to a 1-point game and have a win against the Spurs. They certainly have what it takes to Miami all it wants and more, especially since the Heat will have a hard time not looking ahead to their Christmas showdown with Oklahoma City. The Heat are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a winning record.
The underdog is on a 9-2 ATS run in this series. Plus, Utah has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including the most recent matchup in Miami. Bet the Jazz.
|12-22-12||Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -3||Top||75-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off last night's big upset win in New York, expect the Bulls to suffer a letdown in Atlanta tonight. The Hawks, meanwhile, will be extremely motivated after laying an egg in Philadelphia last night. They will be further fueled by the 21-point beat down the Bulls handed them in the most recent meeting.
One thing you haven't wanted to make a habit of is backing the Bulls following a win. That's because they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
The Hawks have been a terrific investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. They are an impressive 32-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Atlanta.
|12-22-12||Detroit Pistons v. Washington Wizards||96-87||Loss||-110||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Wizards pk
The Wizards will be the hungrier team tonight after losing 100-68 in Detroit last night. Consider that Washington is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Wizards are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest.
The Pistons are a miserable 2-13 on the road this season. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing record, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are also a pathetic 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Washington has its revenge tonight.
|12-22-12||Wake Forest v. NC-Greensboro||84-70||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro pk
The Demon Deacons can't be trusted away from home against this experienced NC Greensboro squad that returns 4 starters. Wake is 1-3 away from home this season and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 true road games.
The Deacs have been a dead fade when checking in off a win as they are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that college teams headed up by Jeff Bzdelik are 3-12 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since 1997. In other words, he has been unsuccessful in getting his team refocused following a lopsided victory.
The Demon Deacons are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take NC Greensboro.
|12-21-12||Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors||100-115||Loss||-105||13 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bobcats +10.5
It will be tough for the Warriors to cover this big number considering the level of fatigue that has to be setting in. This will be Golden State's third game in four days and its sixth in 10 days. Plus, the Warriors have a big showdown with the Lakers tomorrow night. They'll be more concerned with that game than a Charlotte squad they defeated by eight points on the road earlier this month.
Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points in the first half of the season, provided they are a tired team that is playing six or more games in 10 days, are 45-18 ATS the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 12.1 points on average but have won by just 7.7 points on average.
Charlotte will be hungry tonight following a poor performance at Phoenix in its last game. Plus, it will be out to avenge the aforementioned loss to the Warriors. I'll gladly grab the points here considering the Bobcats have won or lost by eight points or less in each of the past nine meetings with the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-21-12||Southern Utah v. Denver -19||47-72||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Denver -19
Off Tuesday's disappointing performance at Wyoming, Denver will be ready to take out its frustrations on Southern Utah when it steps back on its home floor this evening.
Denver's last two home performances have been dominant to say the least. The Pioneers defeated Mercer by 29 on Dec. 5 and Nebraska-Omaha by 35 on Dec. 15. They'll have an excellent opportunity to run up the score against a Southern Utah squad that is 0-5 outside its home gym this season. The Thunderbirds lost these five games by an average of 24.0 points.
Denver has been a terrific investment at home for quite some time. In fact, it is 42-26 ATS in all lined home games under coach Joe Scott. It is 33-21 ATS under his watch as a home favorite or pickem. It is also worth noting that the Pioneers are 19-10 ATS in home games following a road loss under Scott. Bet Denver.
|12-20-12||Nicholls State +18 v. Utah State||72-79||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Nicholls State +18
The Colonels are just 1-5 on the season but a matchup with 6-1 Utah State won't have them shaking in their boots. That's because they have already stepped on the floor with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Michigan State. The Aggies haven't faced nearly as challenging of a schedule. Besides, they have been consistently overvalued against teams like Nicholls State that have been outscored by a wide margin. Consider that Utah State is on a 2-11 ATS slide versus teams that are outscored by an average of 12.0 points or more per game. They have won these games on average but only by 13.6 points.
In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot 55.0 percent from the field or higher, provided they are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) and are up against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), are 76-35 ATS since 1997, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. This system basically shows the way oddsmakers tend to undervalue teams following a poor defensive effort when they are matched up against good defensive teams.
Look for this experienced Nicholls State squad to keep this one within the number.
|12-20-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5||Top||93-99||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
Off last night's satisfying win in Atlanta, I expect the Thunder to look right past a Minnesota team they have defeated 12 straight times and ahead to their Christmas matchup with the Miami Heat.
While Oklahoma City has had Minnesota's number, many of these matchups have been close. As a result, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. OKC has won by just 3.67 points on average in its last 6 visits to Minnesota so the value clearly lies with the T-Wolves catching more than that.
The Timberwolves lost by 11 at Miami in their last game but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 15-4 ATS versus good teams like OKC that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost to these teams by only 0.7 points on average. Take the T-Wolves.
|12-19-12||South Carolina State +26.5 v. Iowa||Top||46-90||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on South Carolina State +26.5
Iowa will have a tough time getting up for this game following back-to-back emotional revenge wins over in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa. Plus, the Hawkeyes are being overvalued here because they have won four in a row straight up and three in a row against the spread. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are being undervalued because oddsmakers have overreacted to Monday's 102-51 loss to Missouri.
Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points that check in off a blowout loss of 30 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in 3 straight games are 25-6 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 26.8 points on average but have lost by an average of only 22.2 points. Take the points.
|12-19-12||Oakland v. West Virginia -11||71-76||Loss||-108||10 h 58 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on West Virginia -11
Hungry following consecutive defeats, look for the Mountaineers to take their frustrations out on an Oakland squad that has struggled on the highway.
Oakland is just 1-7 SU in games played away from home this season and has lost these by an average of 11.6 points.
The Mountaineers have delivered in the big chalk role as they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average score of 82.5 to 56.0. They are also on a 20-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and have won these contests by an average score of 80.4 to 62.8. Bet West Virginia.
|12-19-12||South Dakota State v. Belmont -8.5||49-76||Win||104||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Belmont -8.5
After getting smoked at Kansas in its last game, Belmont will be ready to go when it hits its home floor tonight. The Bruins are 3-0 at home where they have won by an average of 29.3 points. They have proven they can hang with the big boys, as evidenced by their upset win over Stanford on the road.
South Dakota State isn't as battle-tested as Belmont as it hasn't played as challenging of a schedule. Plus, it has struggled on the road, going just 1-3 in true road games this season.
The Jackrabbits are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Lay the number.
|12-19-12||Iowa State v. UMKC +16.5||76-61||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on UMKC +16.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect UMKC to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think.
The Kangaroos haven't lost by more than 10 points at home this season, and will have an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number against an Iowa State squad that has struggled away from home. The Cyclones are just 1-3 SU and ATS in games played outside Ames, IA this season. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 true road games.
It is also significant that UMKC failed to cover the number in its last game as it is a hot 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Take the Kangaroos.
|12-19-12||Utah Jazz v. Indiana Pacers -3.5||84-104||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -3.5
The Jazz won last night in Brooklyn, but I won't hesitate to go against them here as they haven't won consecutive road games all season. They are just 5-10 away from home on the year. It is also worth noting that Utah is 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Tyrone Corbin in road games following a road win. It has lost by an average score of 102.1 to 93.4 in these contests.
The home team has clearly had the advantage in this series. It has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and each of these 8 wins have come by 5 points or more. The Pacers are a reliable 7-3 at home on the season.
Indiana went down last night in Milwaukee, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. Take the Pacers.
|12-18-12||Cal Santa Barbara v. California -12.5||59-68||Loss||-106||13 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Cal -12.5
Cal has lost three in a row since starting the season 6-0, and it will be hungry to take its frustrations out on a team it defeated by 20 points last season because of it.
Each of Cal's three defeats have come against quality opponents. UCSB doesn't have a quality win and has lost to the likes of LSU, Illinois State, Boise State and Wyoming by 14 points or more.
Cal lost its most recent game to a very good Creighton team, but the fact the Golden Bears got after the boards and took care of the basketball bodes very well for us tonight.
Consider that Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 boards or more. It has won these six by an average score of 82.3 to 61.0.
Cal is also 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after a game it committed 8 or less turnovers. It has these seven by an average score of 82.3 to 63.7. Lay the number with the Golden Bears in this highly motivated spot.
|12-18-12||Minnesota Timberwolves +9 v. Miami Heat||92-103||Loss||-108||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Minnesota Timberwolves +9
The T-Wolves lost in Orlando yesterday but had won four in a row and six of seven prior to the defeat.
Miami won its most recent game by 30 against the Wizards but is just 3-3 over its last six contests.
Rick Adelman has really changed the complexion of things in Minnesota as the Timberwolves have been a lot more competitive under his watch. Consider that they are 15-3 ATS under Adelman when up against good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 3.0 points or more per game. The Wolves have lost to these teams by just .1 points on average.
Minnesota is also 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under Adelman and has lost by an average of just .3 points in these games. Take the T-Wolves.
|12-18-12||Ball State v. Purdue -15.5||Top||56-66||Loss||-107||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Purdue -15.5
Off back-to-back losses away from home, expect Purdue to roll when it steps back on its home floor tonight.
Home court has treated the Boilermakers well in recent seasons as they are on a 21-10 ATS run in lined home games dating back to the 2010 season. They are an awesome 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points during this span and have won by an average score of 74.8 to 49.2 in these spots.
It is also significant that Purdue suffered a double-digit loss to Notre Dame its last time out. That's because the Boilermakers have responded extremely well following such embarrassing defeats. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Lay the points as Purdue rolls in this motivated spot.
|12-17-12||IUPU Ft Wayne +23.5 v. Notre Dame||62-74||Win||100||19 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAABB Sure Fire on IUPU Ft Wayne +23.5
This is a lot of points for Notre Dame to be giving up tonight so I'll gladly take the big number. The Irish are coming off a big win against in-state rival Purdue on Saturday so you can imagine it might be tough for them to get up for this quick turnaround against a team they didn't exactly circle on the schedule in the preseason.
The big number also puts into play a pretty solid system that says to FADE favorites of 20+ points off seven or more straight wins. These teams are just 33-65 ATS the past five seasons.
Mike Brey hasn't exactly blown inferior opponents out either. Since becoming coach of the Irish Brey is just 26-41 ATS as a home favorite of 10+ points.
You aren't going to see any threat of an upset tonight, but I can't see Notre Dame covering this large number on Monday.
|12-17-12||Detroit +19.5 v. Syracuse||68-72||Win||100||18 h 28 m||Show|
3* on SMASH on Detroit +19.5
I got hosed on Saturday going against Syracuse but I'm giving it another shot tonight. Canisius played them closer than the 24 point final indicated as the Orange led by only a few points at halftime. They had to shoot 55% from the floor to earn that cover and I can't see them repeating that kind of shooting performance tonight.
Detroit is a solid team that went through a tough schedule early in the year playing the likes of St. John's, Miami, and Pitt. While they struggled it helped prepare them for the rest of their games as Detroit has now won four straight games and is on a little bit of a roll of their own.
The big number here and Syracuse's perfect record sets us up for a nice little system that says to fade home favorites of 10+ points off 9 or more straight wins. These teams are just 76-133 ATS the last five years.
Detroit is a better team than they are being given credit for and Syracuse is laying a few extra points than they should be here. Go with the underdog.
|12-16-12||Northern Illinois +19 v. DePaul||64-69||Win||100||16 h 49 m||Show|
4* Sunday BEST BET on Northern Illinois +19
This is a lot of points to be laying for DePaul here today. Northern Illinois is a team that hasn't gotten enough respect from odds makers lately, winning three straight ATS by keeping the game close to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Dayton.
DePaul is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers in this one after posting some big upset wins over Auburn and Arizona State. DePaul has won the past two years against Northern Illinois by scores of 75-52 and 86-84, both times as 9.5 point favorites.
What happens is the public sees the recent results and how these two teams have matched up the past two years and they want to jump all over DePaul. That has caused a couple points of inflation and the value to be with Northern Illinois on Sunday.
|12-16-12||Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 198.5||96-103||Loss||-110||12 h 1 m||Show|
3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on the Rockets/Raptors UNDER 198.5
This line is a little inflated due to the high number of points Houston games have been played towards this year, but the last two times out Houston gave up 93 & 89 points while scoring 101 or less.
Toronto on the other hand has gone UNDER in four straight games by playing decent defense and not putting points on the board offensively. They have scored 100 or fewer in six straight games while have allowed 94 or less in their last three.
I think the players in the NBA struggle a little more with the early start times. When you are used to playing late at night each game and have to get started at Noon, it's going to take a little while to shake off the cobwebs. Both these teams struggle to do that on Sunday and it leads to a low scoring game for us.
|12-15-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls -3.5||Top||82-83||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
5* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Bulls -3.5
Brooklyn played a tough game last night against the Pistons, playing a few extra frames and now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team with two days rest. Chicago is playing good basketball right now winning four of five and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn on the other hand has been struggling with five losses in their last seven games. The Nets should be a tired team as they not only come off double overtime, but they are also playing their fourth game in five nights. You don't see this kind of situation coming often, and it's a big reason I would lay the wood on the Bulls Saturday night. Add in the fact that Chicago lost at home last February to the Nets and you have a Bulls team that will be hungry to beat a tired team that isn't playing well. All signs point to a blowout.
|12-15-12||Canisius +21 v. Syracuse||61-85||Loss||-106||22 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAABB on Canisius +21
Who wants to go against Syracuse right now? The betting public will take one look at this game and see an undefeated Big East team who has coming off three straight wins by 29+ points and be more than willing to lay the big number. I'm going the other way. Sure you probably don't know much about Canisius but this is an under-rated club. They have gone 6-1 on the season and have looked impressive winning their last three games away from home by double digits. Will they win this game? Probably not, but this team will bring full effort the entire game since it's a chance to prove their worth against a quality opponent. While I think this number is a few points high to begin with, the large number also provides us an excellent opportunity for a team like Syracuse to pump the brakes if they do get up big and Canisius to get the back door cover.
|12-15-12||New Mexico State +9 v. New Mexico||58-73||Loss||-106||21 h 34 m||Show|
3* SMASH on New Mexico State +9
Nothing better than taking an underdog in an in-state rivalry game. You know the Aggies are going to have a chance to pull the upset here, they won by nine last year when the Lobos were favored by 12 at home. If you think that means New Mexico will get their revenge, they already did with a 20 point win later in the season. Instead what you find is a lot of value going against a team that has won their first 10 games of the season. Don't sleep on NM State as they have gone under the radar in covering four straight, their only loss in the past month has come by a single point at UTEP. Why is nine points too many? Because both points will be at a premium today. Both teams are allowing under 63 points per game while neither is wearing the nets out. When you get two slower paced teams that play good defense it's tough to win by double digits. Don't count on New Mexico doing that today so take the points.
|12-14-12||LSU v. Boise State -5.5||70-89||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -5.5
LSU is 6-0 but hasn't played anyone. It also hasn't played a single game away from home. I expect it to go down here in its first road contest of the year against a more battle-tested team.
Boise State took Michigan State down to the wire on the road and also beat Creighton on the road so it can definitely hang with the big boys. It is also to our benefit that we get the Broncos in an extremely motivated spot. They were embarrassed at Utah in their last game, and they were also embarrassed at LSU in last season's meeting. They'll be out to erase both blemishes in a big way.
The Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Bet Boise State.
|12-14-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers +3||Top||90-86||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Cavs +3
Expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead to tomorrow's game. It will be more worried about the Clippers than a Cleveland team it has defeated 8 straight times.
While the Bucks will be looking ahead, the Cavs will be out for some serious revenge. They came close to ending the skid with a 3-point loss at Milwaukee Nov. 3 so they will enter this game with a ton of confidence and motivation.
The Bucks have struggled on the road of late. They are just 1-3 in their last four and 2-5 in their last 7 road games. It is also significant that they enter off a lopsided victory since teams that do tend to be overvalued. Fading the Bucks following a win of more than 10 points has produced a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 instances. Cash in with the Cavs.
|12-13-12||Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 194||Top||90-113||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Total of the Week on Bobcats/Hawks Over 194
Oddsmakers are begging for the money to roll in on the under but we won't oblige them. The Bobcats and Hawks both finished under the number in their games last night with 194 and 166 total points scored, respectively. Also, these two have been under this number in each of the season's previous two meetings with 192 and 185 total points scored, respectively. Yet, the books have come in with a total higher than we've seen these two put up this season? They clearly think this is going to be a high-scoring game, and I agree fully.
When teams play the second game of a back-to-back, it is typically the defense that suffers. It is always easier to find energy when trying to score than it is at the defensive end. That's a big reason why the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats' last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.
Prior to this season's two meetings, we had seen the Bobcats and the Hawks combine to score more than 194 points in three straight games. It is also worth noting that the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Hawks' last 6 home games. Bet the Over.
|12-13-12||Wichita State v. Tennessee||60-69||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tennessee pk
Wichita State has been a bit of a surprise in the early going as it is 9-0 despite losing five seniors. However, the Shockers haven't really played anyone. Tennessee, which brings back 4 starters, has played a much tougher schedule. Getting tested early on will benefit the Vols in this battle.
Tennessee is just 4-3 but has played just two games at home. Home court has treated the Vols well as they are on a 14-3 ATS run at home and a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem.
It is significant that Tennessee was held to just 38 points on the road in its last game because it has responded at home following similar poor showings. In fact, it is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Martin following a road loss in which it was held to less than 60 points. It is also 6-0 ATS under Martin in home games after being held to 25 points or fewer in the first half of its last game.
In addition, it is significant that the Vols have held each of their last three opponents to 50 points or less. That's because teams headed up by Martin are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games after holding their foes to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Take Tennessee.
|12-12-12||New Orleans Hornets +13.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||88-92||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +13.5
The Hornets got caught looking ahead last night as they were upset at home by the Wizards. This is the game they really want as they have been crushed by the Thunder twice already this season, and last night's poor performance assures us they will be even more focused.
Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that have a winning percentage of .250 to .400 that check into a contest off an upset loss are 58-28 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 10.7 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is 19-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.
In addition, New Orleans is on an impressive 21-10 ATS run when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent. It has lost these games on average but only by 4.0 points.
The Hornets played last night but are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Hornets have lost by only 10 and 8 points, respectively in their last 2 visits to OKC. Take the Hornets as they will be the hungrier team tonight.
|12-12-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +8||100-94||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Bobcats +8
The Clippers are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won 7 straight games and are going up against an opponent that has lost 8 straight. Not only is this a letdown spot following last night's big national TV win over the Bulls, but it is also an extremely fatigued spot for the Clippers.
This will be L.A.'s 4th game in 5 days, and it will already be looking ahead to the 2-day break it gets following this contest. Charlotte has had a day off in between each of its last 2 games and has been at home so it hasn't had to travel. It should definitely be the fresher side tonight.
The Clippers covered by a slim margin last night but are still just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-11-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Chicago Bulls +3.5||94-89||Loss||-110||12 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won three in a row and five of six, and they will be very focused tonight as they look to avenge last month's embarrassing 21-point loss in LA.
Since coach Thibodeau took over, Chicago is an awesome 16-5 ATS in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 95.1 to 86.3 in these games.
If you're going to pick a night to fade the Clippers, Tuesday has got to be the night. Consider that LA is just 1-10 ATS when playing on Tuesday evening the last three seasons.
The Clippers have struggled on the road lately. They are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with the win coming by just one points. It is also worth noting that the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Bet the Bulls.
|12-11-12||Tenn Chattanooga +18 v. LSU||67-80||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Tennessee-Chattanooga +18
I expect Chattanooga to be in better form tonight as it just played Saturday and LSU hasn't take the floor since Nov. 29. I expect the long layoff to allow some rust to set in. Plus, the Tigers will have a hard time not looking ahead to Friday's matchup at Boise State.
The Mocs won't be in awe of LSU tonight as they have already stepped on the floor with Kansas. They played the Jayhawks to a 14-point game on the road. In fact, they have lost by more than 18 points just one time this season.
It actually bodes well for us that Chattanooga enters off back-to-back poor showings. Consider that teams that have trailed in their last two games by 10 points or more at the half, provided both they and their opponent are good defensive teams that allow just 63-67 ppg, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons.
It is also worth noting that the Mocs are on a 22-10 ATS run after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
The Tigers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. Take Tennessee-Chattanooga.
|12-10-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +5.5||134-126||Loss||-102||9 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +5.5
Off back-to-back defeats, the Rockets will show up ready to play tonight, especially since one of these defeats was an embarrassing 114-92 loss at San Antonio. Rest assured, the Rockets will put up a much better fight against the Spurs at home.
Houston has won seven of its last nine at home and one of the two losses came by only three points to the defending NBA champion Miami Heat. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Houston has also had a lot of success at home against the Spurs. The Rockets have won their last three at home in the series and have won or lost by three points or less in eight of the past 10 home meetings.
James Harden could miss this game with an ankle injury, but I like the Rockets here regardless. Bet Houston.
|12-09-12||Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -4||98-90||Loss||-100||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Suns -4
After yesterday's poor showing against the Clippers, the Suns won't be able to wait to get back on the floor for a chance to wash that taste out of their mouths. They won't be able to wait for a piece of the Magic either. Orlando has won the last four in this series, and Phoenix will be hungry to bring that streak to an end.
It is significant that the Magic are a soft 3-7 on the road. That's because the Suns, who have won 5 of 8 at home, are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team that has a losing road record. It is also significant that the Magic are just 7-12 (36.8%) on the season. That's because the Suns are 20-8 ATS in home games against teams with a winning percentage of .250 to .400 under coach Gentry. They have whipped up on these foes by an average score of 112.8 to 101.1.
The favorite has been the way to go in this series. It is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meeting and has won these by an average of 15.3 points. Look for this trend to continue.
|12-09-12||UNLV v. California -1||76-75||Loss||-110||11 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on Cal -1
Motivated by an ugly 81-56 loss at Wisconsin in its last game, and further fueled by last season's embarrassing 85-68 defeat at UNLV, expect Cal to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.
UNLV has played one road game this season and didn't come close to covering the spread. That doesn't come as a surprise considering the Rebels are now just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and have lost these by an average score of 69.4 to 72.8.
If you need proof that Cal's loss to Wisconsin will have it fired up, here it is. The Golden Bears are on an awesome 11-2 ATS run in games following a road loss of 20 points or more. They have won by an average score of 74.2 to 68.4 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Bears are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Bet Cal.
|12-08-12||Minnesota v. USC +8||Top||71-57||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on USC +8
USC has dropped four in a row since a 3-1 start and will be ready to go tonight because of it. It lost by 15 at Minnesota last season and will be out for some serious revenge.
The Gophers have won five in a row and are being overvalued on the road because of it. Consider that they are just 3-12 ATS all-time under coach Smith in road games following four or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 73.2 to 69.1 in this situation.
In addition, Minnesota is on an 18-35 ATS slide in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. It has lost by an average score of 73.0 to 65.0 in this situation.
USC beat Texas and showed well against Marquette, San Diego State and New Mexico. With a chance to gain some momentum with a win over a ranked opponent, I'm confident the Trojans will show up tonight.
|12-08-12||La Salle v. Northeastern +4||66-64||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Northeastern +4
Motivated by three consecutive defeats and out for revenge for last season's 17-point loss at LaSalle, Northeastern is in prime position to pull off the upset.
LaSalle, who enters this contest riding high off a blowout win over Penn State, has won four of its last five games and is being overvalued because of it. Consider that the Explorers are on a 9-23 ATS slide when checking in with 4 wins in their last 5 games. They have lost by an average score of 73.8 to 69.1 in this situation.
The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
I'm getting behind Northeastern in this prime spot.
|12-08-12||Purdue v. Eastern Michigan +9.5||44-47||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAB *Afternoon Delight* on Eastern Michigan +9.5
Purdue is down this season, and Eastern Michigan will be awake here after getting smacked by Syracuse. Furthermore, it will be tough for Purdue to get up for this game after annihilating Lamar and remembering how easily it defeated Eastern Mich last season.
Consider that home underdogs or pickems that allow 64.0 points or less per game following a blowout loss of 30 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997. These dogs have only lost by 0.7 points on average in this situation.
Under coach Painter, Purdue has been a terrible investment on the road following a lopsided victory. In fact, it is just 14-24 ATS under his watch in road games after a win by 15 points or more. It has actually lost by an average score of 68.3 to 67.8 in this situation. Take Eastern Mich and the points.
|12-07-12||Northern Illinois v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee -11||73-80||Loss||-110||10 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* Blowout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -11
Off five consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 20-point home loss to Buffalo last game, expect Wisconsin-Milwaukee to show no mercy to this inferior Northern Illinois squad.
The Panthers are on an impressive 16-6 ATS run in home games following a home loss. They are also on a 35-16 ATS run following a loss by 15 points or more.
In addition, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run versus horrible offensive teams that score 57.0 points or fewer per game. It is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams allow 64.0 points or less per game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Panthers.
|12-07-12||Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets -6||Top||109-102||Loss||-105||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nets -6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the Heat and Thunder and further fueled by a loss at Golden State in the season's first meetings, I expect this rested Brooklyn squad to roll tonight.
The Nets are a terrific 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Prior to losing a close one at home to Oklahoma City, the Nets had won six straight at home by an average of 9.3 points. All of these wins came by more than six points except one. Brooklyn beat the Celtics, Clippers and Knicks during this stretch so it can certainly lay a thumping on the Warriors.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Warriors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 road meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Nets.
|12-07-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Indiana Pacers||92-89||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five, but three of those losses came by four points or fewer. Motivated by those narrow defeats, I expect Denver to take out its frustrations on an Indiana team it has owned.
The Nuggets have won two in a row and 12 of their last 15 against the Pacers. They are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.
Denver has been a strong play on the road where it is 56-38 ATS over the last 3 seasons. It is 44-27 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are even 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
The Pacers check in off back-to-back wins and covers but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. They are also 10-26 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Denver.
|12-06-12||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat -7||112-92||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -7
Motivated by a loss to lowly Washington and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at New York in the season's first meeting, expect the Heat to handle their business tonight.
The home team has dominated the series of late, covering the spread in five of the last six meetings. Plus, the Heat have owned the Knicks in Miami. The Heat have won five straight at home in the series with each of these coming by at least 10 points, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Knicks.
Miami is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 12.3 points this season. Dating back to last season, it is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Knicks, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Heat should also be the fresher team as they have had a day to rest and prepare while the Knicks were taken to the brink by Charlotte last night. The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on a days' rest. Take Miami.
|12-05-12||Orlando Magic v. Utah Jazz -8||81-87||Loss||-105||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Jazz -8
Off three consecutive losses, look for Utah to take out its frustrations on an Orlando team it has owned.
The Jazz have won three straight against the Magic by double digits. They have also won their last three at home in the series by nine points or more. Overall, the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Magic.
This is a tough scheduling spot for Orlando, which will be playing its third road game in four nights. The Jazz have had a day of rest following each of their last two games and should be the fresher side as a result.
Utah is 6-1 at home and 5-2 ATS in these games. Take the Jazz as they continue their dominance of the Magic.
|12-05-12||Charlotte U v. Davidson -8||73-69||Loss||-115||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Davidson -8
An experienced Davidson team that returns all 5 starters will be out for some serious revenge tonight as it goes up against a Charlotte squad that won last season's meeting by 23 points. That game was at Charlotte. Recent history tells us we can expect a much different result with Davidson hosting this one.
The home team has won each of the past five meetings, and it's 4-0 ATS in the last four. These four wins have come by an average of 18.0 points. Davidson has won by 28 and 14 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted.
The Wildcats are on a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem, winning these games by an average score of 81.7 to 63.2.
It is also significant that Davidson checks in off a road win at UT Chattanooga. That's because it is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 85.3 to 66.0 in this situation. Bet the Wildcats.
|12-05-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +8||Top||100-98||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +8
Motivated by four consecutive defeats and out for revenge for blowout losses to the Knicks in the last two meetings, I'm expecting an inspired performance from the Bobcats tonight.
While this is a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for the Bobcats, it's a look ahead spot for the Knicks who take on the Miami Heat tomorrow night. New York will be much more concerned with that game and won't give the Bobcats its full attention as a result.
The Knicks have lost three of their last four on the road, and I expect them to have a tough time pulling this one out tonight. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-04-12||Northwestern +11.5 v. Baylor||74-70||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Northwestern +11.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Wildcats will be very focused tonight, especially since they were embarrassed at home by Baylor last season. The Bears won't have the same focus or sense of urgency following a very satisfying win over Kentucky.
The Bears are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a win and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Wildcats, who are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, have a nice chunk of history on their side as well. Consider that December underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that check in off an upset loss are 160-97 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Bet Northwestern.
|12-04-12||Oklahoma v. Arkansas -3.5||78-81||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arkansas -3.5
Motivated and seasoned by three consecutive losses to Arizona State, Wisconsin and Syracuse, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Oklahoma last season, look for Arkansas to bounce back in a big way here.
The Razorbacks are on a 16-6 against the spread run in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have won by an average of 6.0 points in this situation.
The Sooners have not played as challenging of a schedule as Arkansas. The only truly formidable opponent they have played is Gonzaga and the Bulldogs crushed them by 25 points. Arkansas, meanwhile, showed pretty well against Wisconsin and Syracuse, and it will be ready to go here.
It is also worth noting that the Sooners are a lousy 27-55-3 ATS in their last 85 road games.
The home team has dominated this series of late. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won these by an average of 12.8 points. Arkansas has won by 8 and 10 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted Oklahoma. Bet the Razorbacks.
|12-03-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +2||105-104||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Jazz +2
The Jazz will be happy to be back home where they are 6-0 on the season. I expect their home-court dominance to continue against an L.A. squad that has lost its last three on the road both SU and ATS.
The Jazz have owned the Clippers at home over the years. In fact, they are 29-3 SU and 21-10-1 ATS dating back to 1996. Zooming in a few years, we find that Utah is on a 14-3 ATS run at home in the series.
As if the two-game skid the Jazz bring into this game isn't enough motivation, they will be further fueled by losses in their last two meetings with the Clippers. Take the Jazz at home in this highly motivated spot.
|12-03-12||Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets -10||110-113||Loss||-105||11 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -10
Denver has struggled on the road but it has been lights out at home where it has won four of five this season and eight straight against the Raptors, who are just 1-9 on the road this season. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver.
It is also significant that Toronto enters off a win since it is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. Plus, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
Each of Denver last five home wins against the Raptors have come by at least 15 points. Bet the Nuggets.
|12-03-12||Milwaukee Bucks v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5||81-102||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing 100-79 loss to the Thunder in their last game, I expect the Hornets to put forth a good showing tonight against a team they have owned.
The Hornets have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, and they'll be out for some revenge here after losing the season's first meeting by four points in Milwaukee. New Orleans is 21-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.
It is also significant that Milwaukee enters off a win and cover. The Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Hornets.
|12-02-12||California v. Wisconsin -7||56-81||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -7
Motivated by a rare loss at home in its last game, expect Wisconsin to take care of business this afternoon.
The Badgers are just 4-3 but have played a nice schedule with games against the likes of Florida and Creighton. They will benefit from those early season challengers hers as they go up against a Cal team that is 6-0 but hasn't really played anyone.
Under coach Bo Ryan, the Badgers are a terrific 86-59 ATS as a home favorite or pickem. It is significant that they check in off an upset loss because they are 25-12 ATS in games following an upset defeat under Ryan's watch. It is also significant that they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games because they are 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games under Ryan. They have won by an average score of 71.0 to 57.8 in these contests.
Lastly, the Badgers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Badgers.
|12-01-12||Cal Poly Slo v. Saint Marys CA -13.5||68-86||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Saint Mary's -13.5
Riding high off a big upset win over UCLA, expect Cal Poly to get knocked back down to earth by a hungry Saint Mary's squad that will be looking to end a 2-game skid.
Letdowns have been the norm for Cal Poly following wins or narrow margins in recent seasons. In fact, they are 3-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The Mustangs really find themselves in trouble tonight because of Saint Mary's 3-point shooting. The Gaels are averaging 8 3-point makes per game on the season and are shooting them at a sweet 38.1% clip. They have averaged 9 makes from beyond the arc and have made them at a 42.2% clip in their two home games.
Cal Poly is 3-11 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Mustangs are also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Callero versus teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Lay the points as the Gael's make it rain tonight.
|12-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Orleans Hornets +8.5||100-79||Loss||-110||13 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +8.5
Off a double-digit loss in their last game, out for revenge for an earlier loss to Oklahoma City and having had 2 days to prepare, we find the Hornets in a great spot here.
The Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are on a 21-9 ATS run when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest.
It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
New Orleans has been a terrific underdog investment in recent years. It is 64-46 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 28-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Hornets.
|12-01-12||Oakland +4 v. Western Michigan||72-76||Push||0||7 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Oakland +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses, and further fueled by an upset loss at home to Western Michigan last season, Oakland will give the Broncos all they want and more here.
The Grizzlies return 4 starters who have not forgotten about the 91-76 beating WMU handed them last season, and they'll be out for some serious revenge.
While Oakland is an experienced team that showed what it is capable of when it took Pitt to OT on the road, Western Michigan returns just 1 starter.
The Golden Grizzlies are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 road games and 12-3 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points with the more experienced team in this highly motivated spot.
|12-01-12||Brigham Young v. Iowa State -4.5||62-83||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Iowa State -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses away from home to a pair of quality opponents, expect Iowa State to take care of business this afternoon as it returns to the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum.
BYU has struggled on the road against good teams. In fact, it is on a 59-98 ATS slide in road games when playing against a team that has a winning record. The Cyclones, on the other hand, are on a 15-6 ATS run at home when playing against a team that has a winning record.
The Cougars have also been a poor investment in the underdog role. They are on a 52-86 ATS skid when catching points, including a 10-23 ATS slide as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Iowa State.
|11-30-12||Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +4.5||Top||98-86||Loss||-110||6 h 0 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +4.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a pair of defeats to Brooklyn this month, the Magic will show up in a big way tonight. They are 2-2 on their season-high five-game homestand, and they
|11-29-12||Marquette +10.5 v. Florida||49-82||Loss||-106||11 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Marquette +10.5
This is a game Marquette wants badly. You might recall that it was upset by Florida in last season's NCAA tournament, and you can bet that it hasn't forgotten about that loss for a second.
The Golden Eagles have been a terrific investment when catching points. They are on a 13-4 ATS run in the underdog role. They are on an even more impressive 30-10 ATS run as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Williams.
Marquette is also on a 12-2 ATS run when playing against top-level teams that have won more than 80% or their games, and it is also an 11-2 ATS run versus teams that have outscored their opponents by 12.0 points or more per game. Take the points with this motivated Marquette squad.
|11-28-12||New Mexico State v. UTEP -3.5||54-55||Loss||-106||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on UTEP -3.5
UTEP has lost four in a row SU and ATS, but those losses came against the likes of Arizona, Oklahoma, Clemson and Vanderbilt. New Mexico State has played just one school from a major conference (Oregon State). UTEP is now at home and battle tested. The lumps it has taken in its last four games will pay off tonight.
The Miners won the most recent meeting at home 73-69. They have also won three of the last four and five of the last seven.
It should also be mentioned that New Mexico State is not the same team it was a season ago. It only returns two starters. It lost trio of players that accounted for an average of 40.0 points and 20.0 rebounds per game.
The Aggies remain a good rebounding team statistically, but consider that UTEP is 6-0 ATS in home games the last three seasons versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 4.0 or more per game. The Miners have won these games by an average score of 67.0 to 59.8.
|11-28-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +8||Top||110-89||Loss||-115||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +8
The Magic have played well at home where they are 4-3 this season. They could just as easily be 5-2 as they fell to Boston in overtime in their last game.
Orlando will be the fresher team tonight as it has had two days' rest. The Spurs have only had a days' rest, and they will be much more interested in tomorrow night's game against the Miami Heat, an opponent they feel is a better measuring stick than the Magic.
I like Orlando catching big points at home here regardless, but it only helps our cause if Tim Duncan doesn't see much of the floor tonight.
Coach Popovich said he plans to give Duncan some breaks. "There'll be times this year when we'll sit him back-to-backs. Win or lose, he's not going to play the minutes he played (Sunday)," Popovich said.
The Magic have struggled in Orlando where they have lost three of four. The lone win came by only two points in overtime. Take the Magic.