|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-14-13||North Texas -4 v. UL - Monroe||73-85||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
3* on North Texas -
This line provides a lot of value on the Mean Green Eagles. North Texas returned 5 starters from last season compared to the 1 starter returned by LA-Monroe. The Warhawks are definitely going through a rebuilding year with a 3-17 record on the season and they have lost nine consecutive games coming into this matchup.
This game falls into a system to play against home teams as an underdog or pick when they are a poor offensive team that is scoring less than 64 points per game, coming off a performance with a combined score of 155 points or more. This system is 125-75 ATS since 1997.
The LA-Monroe offense ranks 323rd among division one teams averaging a mere 59.9 points per game. Even against a soft North Texas defense this will be an ugly game for the Warhawks. When comparing common opponents the Mean Green are scoring more points, committing less turnovers, getting more rebounds and holding opponents to a shooting percentage that is almost 5% less than what LA-Monroe is allowing.
|02-14-13||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5||110-100||Loss||-108||15 h 51 m||Show|
3* Marquee Mismatch on Oklahoma City -
I expect Oklahoma City to get some revenge here tonight to close out their first half. The Thunder will be highly motivated to prove to themselves and the rest of the league that they can compete with the Heat after losing to Miami not only in last year's finals, but also on Christmas day. The Heat come into this game an impressive 35-14 to lead the East, but they are just 12-11 on the road. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 39-13 and 23-3 at home. They are beating teams by 9.2 ppg, but when in OKC that number jumps even higher to 13.2.
The way both of these teams played leading into the game also created us some value. Miami is on a six game winning streak and has won three straight at the pay window. They won their last four games by double digits, but those games came in South Florida. The Thunder on the other hand got caught looking past Utah to this game on Tuesday night and lost in Salt Lake, a notoriously difficult place to play. That loss also sets us up for a nice little situational play that says to take favorites who are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game when they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. These teams are 86-48 (64.2%) over the last five seasons.
|02-14-13||Tennessee Tech +12.5 v. Eastern Kentucky||69-80||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee Tech +
This is a lot of points for the Golden Eagles to be receiving. This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 10 or more points like Eastern Kentucky when they are coming off a win against a conference rival, in February games. This system is 407-295 over the last 5 seasons. Those numbers tighten up to 343-238 ATS the last five seasons when that favorite is playing at home.
Early season statistics do not hold much weight, but after 15+ games it is pretty easy to get an understanding of a team
|02-13-13||Cal St-Fullerton +6 v. Long Beach State||Top||65-85||Loss||-106||12 h 15 m||Show|
5* CBB NEVER LOST SYSTEM on Fullerton +
Fullerton has a lot of offensive firepower and I think it's going to be difficult for Long Beach to keep up with them tonight. The Titans are 12-11 overall but an impressive 7-6 on the road. As a visitor they are putting up 84.5 ppg on 50.6% shooting and they have hit 44.1% of their 3-point attempts. The outside shooting is important because they take roughly four more three point shots per game than their opponents normally allow.
Long Beach on the other hand only puts up 68.8 ppg and relies on a defense that is holding opponents to 63.8 ppg on 38.4% shooting at home. The problem is that this team has allowed teams that shoot 34.1% from 3-point range to connect on 35.4% of their outside shots, while also attempting three more per game than usual. This fits right into Fullerton's wheelhouse.
Fullerton will be out for some revenge after losing at home by 10 points to the 49ers earlier in the year. However, in that game they made only 5-of-24 from behind the arc. Obviously if they would have hit at their normal rate they would have easily won the game. I think oddsmakers have over-adjusted after that performance and the Titans win this one easily.
Fullerton is 8-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 6-0 ATS on the road after having lost two of their last three the last two.
|02-13-13||Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -10||100-123||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Mavs over Kings
This is a good matchup for Dallas over Sacramento. The Kings are terrible on the road at 5-21, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg. Dallas on the other hand is 14-10 at home and winning by 3.3 ppg. Sacramento is coming off a loss at Memphis last night and will be playing their fourth game in five nights tonight. With the All-Star break coming up, this is a prime situation for a bad team to look ahead to those precious days off.
Every game is important right now for Dallas. They are 5.5 games out of the last spot in the playoff race, but have been playing better since getting Dirk back in the lineup, so they aren't out of it yet. If they don't make up some ground fast though Cuban might give up on the season and start looking to build for next year. I think the Mavs will be fully focused tonight to close out with a win before the break.
Sacramento is just 5-16 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game over the second half of the last two seasons while Dallas is 8-0 ATS against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game the second half of the last two years.
|02-13-13||Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2||97-93||Loss||-110||9 h 22 m||Show|
3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Wolves over Jazz
The Jazz have been without Gordon Hayward since January 26th and they have gone an impressive 5-3 without him, but a closer look at those games show that Utah only had to play two games on the road during that stretch and they lost to Portland and the Kings.
This might be a little bit of a letdown spot for Utah as they are coming off a big win against Oklahoma City last night in Salt Lake, and now have to travel to Minnesota and play a terrible team before the All-Star break. My feeling is they will be looking ahead.
Minnesota should be focused after losing by 22 in Utah back on January 2nd. In that game they shot just 2-for-17 from 3-point range and 34.5% overall. Those numbers were an aberration and I expect them to normalize a little here tonight.
Utah is a poor road team, going 9-18 away from home and losing by 5.3 ppg. Minnesota isn't a great team by any means, but they are 12-12 at home this year and winning by 1.8 ppg. There is some value with the home team here tonight.
|02-13-13||Tulane +11.5 v. Southern Miss||60-71||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
3* CONFERENCE USA CASH on Tulane +
Southern Miss is struggling a little bit after having rolled through the early portion of the Conference USA schedule. They are coming off back-to-back losses as a favorite and a particularly frustrating game in which they allowed Memphis to score 89 points on 55.9% shooting in front of their home crowd. You want to fade home, double digit favorites in February after a home game in which both teams put up 75 or more points. This situation is 38-12 (76%) the last five seasons.
Tulane on the other hand has won two straight both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting the ball well and not turning it over. Plus, this is a solid rebounding team who limits opponents put backs and gets second chances of their own. Tulane is pulling down 11 offensive rebounds per game while opponents only grab seven. You want to take double digit underdogs in February who are giving up less than 9 offensive rebounds per game. These teams are 388-272 (58.8%) since 1997.
|02-13-13||Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 131||60-71||Push||0||9 h 12 m||Show|
3* CBB TOTAL DOMINATOR Southern Miss/Tulane UNDER
Tulane is coming off a pair of high scoring games against high paced teams and that has inflated this total a little bit. They scored a 91-75 win over Marshall and a 88-85 victory over Houston the last two times out, but this is a team that only averages 64.1 ppg on the road and is giving up 61 ppg on the year.
Southern Miss on the other hand is allowing opponents to put up just 56.3 ppg at home on 38.5% shooting. You think head coach Donnie Tyndall isn't going to pound defense into these guys' heads after two straight losses and coming off a game in which they allowed Memphis to put up 89 against them on 55.9% shooting? With how poorly the Golden Eagles have shot lately, I don't think they are going to blow Tulane out of the water either. Points should be at a premium tonight so the UNDER looks like a safe play.
|02-13-13||Denver Nuggets v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5||108-119||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Nets over Nuggets
Denver is a solid team, checking into this game at 33-19 overall, but they have struggled on the road in going 11-16. The problem is the Nuggets score 8 ppg less on the road and they allow 3 ppg more. That's quite a difference and is a big reason I like the Nets tonight.
Brooklyn hasn't played well lately, winning just four of their last 0 games, but a closer look at the schedule shows they played the role of an underdog in all but three of those games. It was a tough stretch to end the first half of the season and I think Brooklyn is going to be motivated to close out with a win.
|02-13-13||DePaul v. Notre Dame UNDER 145.5||78-82||Loss||-110||8 h 13 m||Show|
4* BIG EAST TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame/DePaul UNDER
DePaul is a higher scoring team because they play at a fast pace, but Notre Dame is a slow it down type of team that doesn't want to run and gun. Most of the time the home team controls the pace, so this game should be played out more in the style of the Irish than the Blue Demons.
Not only that, but I think Oliver Purnell has been hammering home defense to his guys the last few days in practice. They had a decent shot to beat Marquette on Saturday but the Blue Demons allowed 56.4% shooting. The game before against Villanova was just as bad when they gave up 59.6% from the field. A renewed focus on the defensive end of the floor should put a stop to that, and we know they can limit Notre Dame as the Irish only shot 43.5% against them last time these two teams faced.
Notre Dame hasn't really been shooting well either. They only shot 34.6% in scoring 47 points against Syracuse and with the five overtime game against Louisville just a few days back this team might have some tired legs. Since they like to slow it down anyway, you might see that pace exaggerated even further tonight as guys try to conserve energy.
Neither team gets a lot of offensive rebounds, so second chance points won't be a problem. Neither team forces nor turns the ball over a lot either, so there shouldn't be too many easy baskets in this game. I like it to stay under the total pretty comfortably.
|02-13-13||DePaul +11.5 v. Notre Dame||78-82||Win||100||8 h 13 m||Show|
3* BIG EAST SIDE SMASH on DePaul +
This is what you would call a letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a thrilling 140-101 five overtime win over Louisville on Saturday. Now they get to play at home against one of the worst teams in the league in DePaul. I can see Notre Dame having a tough time getting up for this one, which makes the points attractive. You want to fade double digit favorites in February off a home win in which they scored 85 or more points. This system is 60-24 (71.4%) the last five seasons.
DePaul lost by eight at home to the Irish just two short weeks ago, so revenge is fresh in their minds while Notre Dame might relax against a team they took care of on the road. However, double digit underdogs are 779-580 (57.3%) revenging a home loss the last five years. When that team is off a road loss to a conference rival the number jumps to 208-137 (60.3%).
|02-12-13||Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Golden State Warriors||116-107||Win||100||16 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets +
This is too many points for the Rockets to be getting tonight at Golden State. I know that the Warriors are a better team than most people realize at 30-21, but their scoring margin is still only that of a .500 team at exactly 0. Houston on the other hand is 28-25 but is outscoring their opponents by 3 ppg so they are under-rated in my opinion.
Houston lost last time out at Sacramento as a six point favorite, so I expect them to buckle down on the second game of their road trip. Golden State on the other hand has lost four in a row on the road and were soundly beaten in each of those games. It all started with a 31 point loss in Houston. The public seems to think NBA teams come out for revenge, but actually you want to play against home teams revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 121-71 (63%) since 1996.
I'll take the points here tonight.
|02-12-13||Virginia Tech +14.5 v. Virginia Cavaliers||55-73||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Virginia Tech +
Virginia has been rolling lately but I think they are laying a few too many points here today against their in-state rivals. Virginia Tech has lost six in a row since dropping the first game in this series, but other than the Virginia game all of the losses have been by less than today's number.
In that game they were five point home underdogs, and now are getting almost ten more points on the road. That is a significant adjustment for a team that doesn't have to travel outside of the state. Plus, even though the Cavs won by 16 points, they hit over 50% of their shots and were 11-for-23 from behind the three point line. Virginia also committed eight less turnovers, despite being a more turnover prone team on the season than Virginia Tech is.
Last time out Virginia Tech had a disappointing home loss to Georgia Tech, but their second best player Jarell Eddie was benched for most of the second half after slamming a water bottle down following picking up his third foul. Virginia picked up a big win over Maryland on Sunday, so they didn't have much time to prepare for this game. With North Carolina on deck this is the perfect look past situation. I'll take the large number and the Hokies today.
You want to fade double digit home favorites playing on one or less days rest in February. Doing so would have gone 116-64 (64.4%) over the last four years. You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. these teams are 779-580 (57.3%) the last five years, and when that team is off two straight conference losses that system tightens to 260-173 (60%).
|02-11-13||Idaho State +18 v. Weber State||40-56||Win||100||14 h 7 m||Show|
4* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Idaho State +
How much attention could the Wildcats be paying to the Bengals? Weber is playing on one day's rest and they also have Montana coming up quickly, a team that is 14-0 in Big Sky play and two games in front of Weber in the league standings. They then play Montana State Saturday, the other conference foe that handed them a loss earlier in the year.
There is no doubt that Weber State is the better team here tonight as they come in with a 16-5 record compared to Idaho State's 4-18. However, you want to fade double digit favorites that have won 60% or more of their games when taking on a team that has won 20% of less. This situation is 59-28 (68%) over the last five seasons. The short rest also works against Weber as fading double digit favorites playing on one day's rest in February has gone 116-64 (64.4%) the last five years.
The public is going to look at how these teams have done recently and what happened the first time they squared off against each other. The first time these two teams met Weber won by 16 points on the road, shooting 55.8% from the floor and hitting 10-of-20 from behind the 3-point arc. Those are numbers that will be difficult to repeat, plus underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent who have won less than 20% of their games taking on a team with a winning record are 69-34 (67%) the last five years.
The last time out the Wildcats beat Southern Utah by 17 points at home giving them four straight covers. Idaho State lost to that same Southern Utah team in their last game by two points on their home floor. The good news is that you want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win by 15 or more points when playing an opponent after a close loss by three points or less. This system is 91-51 (64.1%) over the last five seasons.
|02-11-13||Furman +8 v. Appalachian State||66-72||Win||100||13 h 7 m||Show|
3* on Furman +
Neither one of these teams is very good with Furman clocking into this game at 6-16 with Appalachian State at 10-13. However, Furman does seem to play well against bad teams, going 24-11 ATS when playing a team with a losing record the last three seasons.
Furman has dropped three in a row with all of those games coming at home, but this team normally does a good job of bouncing back. The Paladins are 30-16 ATS off two straight conference losses since 1997 and 15-5 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games the last three years.
App State has had one day off since their 35 point drubbing by Davidson. It's going to be tough for them to bounce back so quickly and take on a poor team here on Monday night. I'll take the points.
|02-11-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -4.5||105-86||Loss||-110||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* on Pistons -
This is a good matchup for Detroit. New Orleans is a team that plays terrible defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% in their road games and 37.2% from behind the 3-point line. The Hornets also get a lot of their points from the perimeter, hitting 37.3% of their 3-point attempts.
The Pistons though defend the three well, allowing opponents to hit just 32.8% from behind the arc. Detroit is also a solid shooting team at home, making 47% of their attempts and 37.3% of their 3's, so they should have no trouble scoring against the Hornets.
Add in the fact that Detroit is 17-6 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the last two years and are 16-6 ATS against teams that allow 46% or more from the field and you can see why Detroit is the obvious play.
|02-11-13||Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5||91-94||Win||100||12 h 12 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Charlotte +
Boston is a hot team, you can't argue that. Ever since Rajon Rondo went down this team has won six in a row and covered in each. However, this is a tough spot for them as they have played a tough stretch of games. They went back-to-back against Toronto and LA then had a couple of days of before yesterday's triple overtime thriller against the Nuggets. This is a little big of a letdown spot for the Celtics as they will be forcing a poor team a day after their "old guys," Pierce played 54 minutes, Garnett 47, and Terry 42.
Charlotte has been struggling but even though they didn't cover their last two games, they were close. They lost to the Lakers by 7 as 6.5 point underdogs and they lost by 11 to the Sixers as 10 point dogs. This is their last home game before the All-Star break so I think they will bring a little something extra to try and pick up the win. Since Boston is just 8-14 this year away from home, losing by almost six points per game, I think there is a good chance they do just that.
You want to take home underdogs who have failed to cover four of their last five games against an opponent that has covered six or seven of their last eight. These teams are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS the last five seasons.
|02-11-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Philadelphia 76ers +5.5||107-90||Loss||-110||12 h 11 m||Show|
3* on Sixers +
The Clippers got back on track with a win yesterday in New York over the Knicks, but now will be playing their third game in four nights as they face Philadelphia. LA also might be a little short-handed as Caron Butler left yesterday's game in the third quarter with a back injury, Chris Paul is still not at full strength, and Matt Barnes has a hurt finger that may have contributed to his poor shooting over the last few games.
Philadelphia has now won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. They are playing fantastic defense in giving up under 40% in each of those games. Granted, none of those squads has the offensive firepower of the Clippers, but LA had lost four of five before yesterday's win and eight of their last 11. This clearly isn't the same team now as when everyone was 100%.
This is Philadelphia's last home game before the All-Star break and I think they will keep this one close.
|02-10-13||Houston Rockets -5.5 v. Sacramento Kings||111-117||Loss||-105||14 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston -
Houston checks into this game scoring 106 points per contest while allowing only 102.9. Sacramento on the other hand is scoring 97.4 ppg while giving up 103.1. The difference in scoring margin alone strongly favors Houston, but the fact that the Kings can't stop anyone makes me love the high scoring Rockets.
Houston has now covered in seven of their last eight games wight heir only two straight up losses coming on the road against Denver and Miami. They haven't shot under 48% once during that stretch and they are coming off a 59.% shooting performance against Portland on Friday night.
Sacramento looked good last night against Utah, but the team had four days rest prior to that contest and was playing in a quick revenge spot with their previous game being a loss to the Jazz on the road. This was a team that had lost eight of their last nine before lsat night. They had given up over 52.8% in three of their last four games, which doesn't bode well when facing one of the best shooting teams in the league.
You want to take road teams that score 102+ ppg when playing a team that gives up 102+ ppg after 42 games. This situ ion is 162-99 (62.1%) since 1996.
|02-10-13||James Madison v. Drexel UNDER 114.5||48-60||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
4* CBB Total Dominator on Drexel/James Madison UNDER
This game has a low scoring affair written all over it. I love it when both teams are giving up and scoring less than their opponents normally score and allow. In conference play James Madison is spring 61 ppg and allowing 57.9 while Drexel is putting up 60.5 and giving up 59.7.
James Madison has given up 74 and 71 points in their last two games. Drexel is also coming off a high scoring affair in which they allowed Old Dominion to put up 78. You can bet that both teams worked on defense with the extra days rest leading up to this game.
The last time these two teams met the final ended up being 43-51. Neither team shot real well in that game but that can be expected with their low normal shooting percentages and the solid defense of their opponent. I don't know if the final will be quite that low this time, but it should stay under this low number.
|02-09-13||Seattle +14 v. New Mexico State||57-60||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
4* LATE NIGHT BAILOUT on Seattle +
New Mexico State has been rolling, winning 10 straight games and covering six of their last seven. However, teams in smaller conferences that get hot like this get over-valued fairly quickly. Fading double digit favorites that have won 5 or 6 of their last seven ages playing their 2nd game in 3 days is 79-41 (65.8%) over the last five seasons. If you faded double digit favorite that have won 10 or more in a row you would be 160-93 (63.2%) the last five years.
Seattle played New Mexico State tough the first time around, losing 83-82 on their home floor. They lost despite hitting only 7-of-25 from behind the 3-point line. Now they are in a favorable spot since double digit underdogs revenging a home loss are 772-573 (57.4%) the last five years, but when they are playing their second road game in three days that number jumps to 136-80 (63%).
One of New Mexico State's best players, Tyrone Watson, was recently charged with assault and hasn't played the last three games. With Seattle matching up well against the Aggies the first time around, I think they will do even better without Watson on the floor.
|02-09-13||New Mexico v. UNLV -5||55-64||Win||100||13 h 19 m||Show|
3* BAILOUT on UNLV
The last time these two teams met was January 9th in New Mexico, with the Lobos coming out on top by five points. However, a closer look at that game brought to my attention a few key stats. The first is the fact that New Mexico shot 24 more free throws than the Rebels. The second is that UNLV had just four offensive rebounds in that game and lost the turnover battle by five. With both teams shooting at about the same rate, that's a lot of things that didn't go UNLV's way to basically lose by the home court advantage and now to lay the home court advantage here tonight.
New Mexico has been rolling as of late, covering six of their last eight games and winning seven of eight straight up. However, you want to play against hot teams that have covered six or seven of their last eight games when they have won 80% of their games on the year and are taking on another good team that has won at least 60%. This system is 119-66 (64.3%) over the last five seasons.
The last two times the Lobos have taken to the road against a quality opponent it hasn't ended well. They lost 34-55 at San Diego State and 46-60 at St. Louis. I think their road struggles continue tonight against UNLV.
|02-09-13||Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5||91-116||Win||100||12 h 7 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Dallas -
This is a tough scheduling spot for the Warriors. This will be their fourth road game in five nights, and so far the road trip has been a disaster. It started with a 140-109 loss to Houston, followed by a 119-98 beating by the Thunder. Last night didn't get much better as Golden State lost by six in Memphis. Now, the Warriors get to face a Mavs team that has turned the corner.
Dirk Nowitzki missed the first part of the season and Dallas struggled. He came back on 12/23 but took awhile to get back into the swing of things. I'd say since about the start of the year he's came into form, so it's no surprise that the Mavs have won 8 of 13 straight up but an even more impressive 12 of 14 at the pay window. They have had a couple of days off since their home win over Portland to prepare for tonight's game, so I think they win big over Golden State and get their revenge for the close loss from a week and a half ago.
You want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are playing their second game in five days against a team playing their 4th in five. These teams are 78-40 (66.1%) since 1996 and when they are at home they are 33-9 (78.6%) the last five seasons.
|02-09-13||Tennessee State +7 v. Murray State||Top||48-69||Loss||-110||12 h 19 m||Show|
5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Tennessee State +
If you take a look at the common opponents these two teams have played, Tennessee State stands at 8-2 while Murray State is 8-2. The Tigers are actually winning by 7.7 ppg while the Racers are only winning by 5.6 ppg. In those games, Tennessee State is shooting 47% compared to Murray State's 43.5%, holding opponents to 41% compared to 41.9%, then nearly dead even in turnovers and rebounds.
These two teams are very evenly matched, which makes the points very enticing to begin with, but then you have to couple it with the fact that this is a letdown game for Murray State after pulling off the upset win at home against Belmont. That Thursday night game came down to the wire, and now after just one day of rest they have to take on another quality opponent.
Tennessee State also played on Thursday, but they took on Austin Peay in a game that they were favored by six on the road, so they could spend a little practice time leading up to that game focusing on today's opponent. I think you'll see the Tigers prepared and ready for the Racers here today.
|02-09-13||Denver Nuggets v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 215||111-103||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* on Denver/Cleveland OVER
Can the Nuggets offense be stopped? They have put up 112 or more points in their last four games and haven't scored under 100 since back on January 16th. Surprisingly, the Cavs have turned into an offensive juggernaut lately as well. Cleveland has put up 115 or more points in their last three games. With those kinds of offensive numbers it's no surprise both teams have gone OVER in five straight games.
You want to take the OVER when one team went OVER by 18 in their previous game and they are taking on an opponent that went OVER by 24 in their last game. This situation is 355-241 (59.6%) since 1996. If the total for the current game is over 200 then that number jumped to 147-90 (62%).
This is one of the highest totals set so far this season and when the total is set above 212, the OVER has gone 12-4. Both of these teams give up over 100 ppg and with both offenses clicking, this one should go over easy.
|02-09-13||Iowa State v. Kansas State -5||70-79||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
4* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -
Here you have two very evenly matched teams, but I think Kansas State gets their revenge at home against the Cyclones. Iowa State has been solid at home, but they are just 3-6 on the road this year. They played a couple of tough games at Kansas and at Oklahoma State, but the loss at Texas Tech is a red flag.
Kansas State is an under-rated team who is 11-1 at home and winning by nearly 20 ppg with that only loss coming against Kansas. There are two reasons I like this team quite a bit, they don't turn the ball over and they get a lot of offensive rebounds. This allows the Wildcats to shoot it about 6 times more per game than their opponents.
Back on January 26th, Iowa State beat K-State by six points on their home floor. In that game the Cyclones were 11-for-22 from behind the 3-point arc and shot 13 more free throws than their opponents. K-State also grabbed just five offensive rebounds. Everything went Iowa State's way that day and they barely covered, I think if things even out and with the change of venue the Wildcats should be favored by a few more points than they are here today.
|02-09-13||DePaul +15 v. Marquette||78-89||Win||100||6 h 20 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on DePaul +
Last time out Marquette was pretty impressive, beating South Florida on the road by 23 points. On the other hand you have DePaul coming off a 23 point loss at home to Villanova, but this actually creates some value in today's line. You want to fade favorites of 10 points or more that are coming off a blowout win by 20 or more points taking on a conference rival that lost by double digits last time out. This situation is 76-43 (63.9%) over the last five seasons.
DePaul hasn't looked good lately, but you want to take double digit underdogs that have been beaten by 48 points or more against the spread in their last ten games when hey have a losing record. These teams are 59-28 (68%) the last five years. Plus, if the double digit dog is coming off a game in which they were beaten on the spread by 18+ they are 95-52 (64.6%) in February.
Marquette probably won't give DePaul much of a tough tonight since they play at Georgetown on Monday in a game that will go a long way towards helping their chances of a Big East title. This is a classic look ahead situation and I'll take the underdog.
|02-08-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5||111-100||Loss||-103||12 h 42 m||Show|
3* on Hawks -
New Orleans is in a tough spot here tonight. This is a team that was on a five game road tip before making a quick one game stop in New Orleans before heading to the road again for a three game swing. The road trip wasn't kind to the Hornets as they lost four straight, mainly due to a defense that allowed opponents to shoot 49.4% or better in each game. The Hornets did manage to beat the lowly Suns on Wednesday night, but that isn't impressive with how bad Phoenix is this year.
Atlanta got back on track Wednesday night with a double digit home win over the Memphis Grizzlies in which they shot 51.4%. Figuring how much tougher the Grizzlies defense is than the Hornets has been of late, I think they should easily be able to put points on the board here tonight.
Atlanta is a much better team at home than they are on the road, going 17-8 and winning by 3 ppg. This is their last home game before the All-Star break, and I think they are going to bring it in order to end the first half of their season on a good note. I'll lay the small number.
|02-08-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards +1||74-89||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Washington Wizards +
The Nets roll into this game at 29-20 while the Wizards are only 13-35, but Washington has really buckled down against good teams this year, going 16-7 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Plus they are 15-5 ATS against teams who have won between 51%-60% of their games the last two years.
Washington has been a different team since getting John Wall back. The Wizards are 9-7 over their last 16 games after starting the year just 4-28 and the odds makers haven't really caught up to how much better this team is as evidenced by their 13-3 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets only beat the Wizards in Washington by two in one of Washington's last games before getting Wall back, and I don't think they are going to pick up another win tonight with him in the lineup.
Brooklyn likes to shoot the three, hoisting 22 shots per game behind the arc, but they only make 34.8% of those attempts while their opponents normally allow 35.4%. This plays right into the Wizards strength as they are 23-11 ATS this year against opponents who attempt 18 or more 3's per game this year. Mainly, it's because they have held opponents shooting 36% from deep to only hit 34.3% against them.
|02-08-13||Brown v. Princeton UNDER 120||46-63||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
3* Ivy League Total of the Week on Brown/Princeton UNDER
This game features two teams that both score less than opponents normally allow and give up less than their opponents normally score. In Brown's 11 road games this year they have scored 59.4 points on 38.6% shooting while at home Princeton is allowing just 56.9 ppg. Princeton is only scoring 63.4 ppg while Brown normally allows 65.1.
The last two two IVY league games for Princeton have seen them go over this number here tonight, but in both of those games they shot over 51% from the floor. That shouldn't happen tonight against a better defense. Brown is coming off a very high scoring game at Harvard in which both teams eclipsed the 80 point barrier, but those numbers are inflated due to the double overtime.
You have two teams here tonight that excel on the defensive end of the floor that have had five days of rest to focus on tonight's opponent. I think you'll see a low scoring game as this one stays safely under the total.
|02-07-13||Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets -6||96-128||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver's offense is clicking on all cylinders and I don't expect the Bulls to be able to keep up with the pace. The Nuggets have broken the 100 point barrier in eight straight games and haven't scored less than 97 since New Year's Day. Chicago on the other hand has scored more than 100 only three times in their last ten, while being held to under 90 four times. You want to take favorites that score 102+ ppg when playing a team scoring less than 98 ppg after they have put up 110 or more in three straight games. These teams are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Nuggets enjoy one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and they have continued that success this year by going 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS. They are scoring 108.4 ppg while giving up 99.3 in Denver. Their main weakness is allowing opponents to shoot and make a lot of three point attempts, but that is definitely not a strong suit of the Bulls, especially without Kirk Heinrich.
Denver is rolling and has the matchup advantage so I'll take the Nuggets tonight.
|02-07-13||Maryland Terrapins -4.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||60-55||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland -
I like how these two teams matchup with each other here tonight. Maryland is shooting 47.5% from the floor against teams allowing 43% while holding opponents to 36.3% shooting who normally hit 43.7%. Virginia Tech on the other hand is average at both shooting and field goal defense. What Virginia Tech does do well is get to the line, but Maryland is a team that doesn't foul so that is not going to help them out much here tonight.
Another area I think the Terps will dominate is on the boards. Maryland is average 43 rebounds on the year while their opponents only pull down 32. Virginia Tech is an average rebounding team that has lost the battle of the boards by 26 the last three games. The glass should belong to the Terps.
Maryland is coming off a dominant showing against Wake Forest on Saturday. They not only won by 26, but they also shot 67% while holding the Demon Deacons to 34.4%. They have won the rebounding battle by a total of 46 over their past three games and head coach Mark Turgeon is 21-9 ATS after four straight games out rebounding his opponent by six or more while the Terps are 6-0 ATS the last three seasons in that situation.
Virginia Tech has lost four in a row and is coming off a heartbreaker to North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat the Hokies by 12 points in overtime. I think it's going to be tough for them to respond after coming so close to a big win, only to completely fall apart late. The Hokies haven't covered a home ACC game the last two years, going 0-10 ATS during that span.
The last time these two teams met was January 5th and the game went just like you would expect. Maryland won by 23 while shooting 51.7% and winning the rebounding battle. Virginia Tech shot just 37.3% and I don't see why tonight will be a whole lot different. You want to play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revering a blowout road loss of 20 points or more, off a game they covered or loss. This situation is 41-14 (74.5%) ATS the last five seasons.
|02-07-13||Nebraska Omaha +15.5 v. Western Illinois||50-68||Loss||-110||11 h 22 m||Show|
3* on Nebraska-Omaha +
It's going to be easy for Western Illinois to look passed Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. This team stands at 9-2 in Summitt League play and has their next two games on the road at North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the two teams they are tied with atop the conference standings.
This is a lot of points for a team to be laying that scores only 61 and gives up 52.5 ppg. They are playing solid defense, but Nebraska-Omaha does shoot 47.2% from the floor so they can score points of their own. Nebraska-Omaha has shot 54% in their last five games, a big reason why they have pulled upsets off over South Dakota, UMKC, and IUPU-Fort Wayne and are now shooting 50.1% in conference play.
The first time these teams met Western Illinois won by a final of 89-74, but they shot 84.6% from the line in that game, 57.4% from the floor, and 55.6% from behind the arc. I know the Mavericks defense isn't near as good as the Leathernecks, but those stats are outliers and with a more normal night of shooting Nebraska-Omaha would have covered the first time around. I think with some regression to the mean they cover easily tonight.
You want to play on double digit underdogs revenging a home loss, these teams have gone 768-567 (57.5%) over the last five seasons. When that loss was by 10 points or more the system tightens to 436-306 (58.8%).
|02-07-13||Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Florida International||65-84||Loss||-105||10 h 22 m||Show|
3* on Florida Atlantic +
When you look at Florida Atlantic's shooting percentage you see they only make 41.3% of their shots, but they take and make a lot of 3-point shots, hitting 37.8% on the year. Florida International gives up 34.6% from behind the arc and allow opponents to take 3 more shots from deep than they normally do a game. This bodes well for the Owls.
These two teams are fairly even, and being in the same state I don't think you are going to see as much home court advantage here tonight as you normally would. Atlantic is 7-8 against common opponents, losing by 0.8 ppg while International is 8-6 and losing by 0.5 ppg. Atlantic is 6-7 in the conference while International is 7-6.
Florida International is 0-6 ATS against teams scoring 64 points or less the second half of the last two seasons and 29-50 ATS as a favorite since 1997. With the matchup advantage relating to outside shooting, this isn't enough points for the Owls to be getting tonight.
|02-06-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Utah Jazz -5.5||86-100||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
3* on Utah Jazz -
The Utah Jazz are one of the best home court advantage teams in the NBA and I don't think they are laying enough points to the Bucks here tonight. The Jazz are coming off a win at home against the Kings on Monday night, but they didn't manage to cover the 8.5 point spread. That puts them in bounce back mode where Utah is 21-10 ATS at home after failing to cover in their last game.
Milwaukee is coming off a high scoring 112-104 loss at Denver last night. It was the fourth straight game the Bucks have dropped at the pay window, but it didn't really come as a surprise since they are 22-42 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons. The no rest really seems to affect Milwaukee too as the Bucks are 10-23 ATS when playing on back-to-back days the last two years.
Milwaukee is just 20-33 ATS when playing a team with a winning record but that number drops further to 1-12 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the 2nd half of the last two seasons. I think Utah gets out in front early and pulls away tonight.
|02-06-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202||Top||99-105||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER
We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996.
Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season.
These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row.
|02-06-13||Golden State Warriors v. Oklahoma City Thunder -10||98-119||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Golden State is impressive this year with a 30-18 record but two things stand out to me. The first is that they are only outscoring opponents by one point per game, so that record seems a little inflated. The second is that this team is a lot better at home then they are on the road. Sure, the Warriors might be 14-12 as the visitor, but they are getting outscored by 2.2 ppg in those games.
Oklahoma City is a dominant team that isn't afraid to blow people out. They are scoring 108 ppg at home and giving up just 95.8 ppg for a 12.2 ppg margin. They shoot well from the floor and behind the arc, they get to the line, and shoot a high rate there. Plus, this team is in a revenge spot since they lost at Golden State back on 1/23 by five points. In that game the Thunder were coming off a back-to-back with the Clippers, now they are at home and the Warriors are coming off a back-to-back. I don't think the line has been adjusted enough, going from Thunder -1 to -10.
You want to take favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg after they have led the last three games by five or more at half when they are playing a team with a margin of +/-3. These teams are 70-34 67% ATS since 1996.
|02-06-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Detroit Pistons -1.5||93-90||Loss||-110||14 h 43 m||Show|
4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Brookyn is coming off a tough game last night in which they lost to the LA Lakers sans Dwight Howard. Now they must travel from Brooklyn over to Detroit on back-to-back nights to take on the Pistons. Detroit also lost to the Lakers recently without Howard, but it was by a single point.
I like how these two teams matchup. The Nets might be a good team at 28-19 while Detroit is only 18-31, but Brooklyn wins by going to the free throw line where they make 75% of their foul shots and attempt two more per game than their opponents normally allow. However, Detroit doesn't foul that much and Brooklyn is 30-43 ATS against teams who are called for 21 fouls or less the last two seasons.
The Nets only shoot 43.7% away from home yet they allow 48.4%. Detroit is shooting 47% on their home floor and allowing 43.7%. Since the Pistons are 16-5 ATS against teams allowing shooting percentages of 46% or more the last two seasons I think they can exploit this advantage.
The Pistons are coming off a disappointing double digit loss at New York, but Detroit is 57-38 ATS after failing to cover the spread the last three years. I think they will bounce back again here tonight.
|02-06-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5||95-122||Win||100||13 h 13 m||Show|
3* on Cleveland Cavs -
The last time these two teams played Cleveland jumped out to a commanding 62-48 lead at half, only to almost let it slip away. The Cavs still came away with a two point win in Charlotte and I think how they played early was a sign on who has the most talent. I also like how these teams matchup. Cleveland allows opponents to shoot 37.6% from behind the 3-point arc, but Charlotte doesn't shoot a lot of threes, averaging four less per game than their opponents normally allow. On the other hand, Charlotte allows 38.8% 3-point shooting and for their opponents to take 4 more per game than usual. That's a big disadvantage and a big reason why this team is 12-22 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point attempts this season.
The Cavs might allow their opponents to shoot at a high rate too, but the Bobcats 3-15 ATS against teams that allow opponents to hit more than 46% the last two years.
Charlotte played well the last time out, losing by five points to the Heat in Miami and covering the 14 point spread, but this team has some glaring problems. They have allowed their last three opponents to all shoot over 50% from the floor and they have done a terrible job on the glass.
The previous matchup and recent play by the Bobcats actually sets us up for a nice little system. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a straight up loss v. an opponent as a favorite, off a game in which the team covered but lost. This situation is 99-50 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.
|02-06-13||Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 131||Top||50-61||Win||100||13 h 10 m||Show|
5* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Michigan State/Minnesota UNDER
These two teams played back on New Year's Eve to a final score of 63-76, but in that game Minnesota shot 56.6% from the floor and 37.5% from behind the arc, while Michigan State hit 45.5% of their 3-point attempts. With how well these two schools play defense, I can't see those numbers repeating here today. Add the fact that we have a couple of extra points to play with from the previous total of 128 and you start to see a lot of value.
Both of these teams play excellent defense. The Gophers are only allowing 61.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting while Michigan State is giving up 55.9 ppg on 34.9% shooting on their home floor. Neither team forces turnovers nor turns the ball over very often, so I'm not expecting any easy buckets in transition either. Both are good rebounding teams that keeps their opponents off the offensive glass, again negating the chance for easy put back buckets close to the rim.
I know both teams shoot at a high rate and Michigan State clocks into this game hitting 46.8% of their field goals, but that doesn't mean they are going to shoot well tonight. Minnesota is 96-67 (59%) UNDER against good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots since 1997 and that number moves to 64-40 (62%) UNDER if the opposing team also limits opponents to 42% shooting or less.
The Spartans have played back-to-back high scoring games against Indiana and Illinois. They shot 59.5% against the Illini and 45% against Indiana, but they also allowed 45% and 51% in those respective games. With five days off from the Illinois game until tonight, you can bet Izzo has his boys working on tightening things up on the defensive side of the floor. Michigan State is 35-17 UNDER after two or more straight overs since 1997. The Spartans are also 22-11 (67%) UNDER off a win against a conference rival and 13-4 (76%) UNDER if that win was by six or less points the last three seasons.
|02-06-13||Buffalo -1 v. Eastern Michigan||46-65||Loss||-110||13 h 9 m||Show|
4* on Buffalo -
Neither of these teams are very good, but I'll side with the road team here tonight due to the advantage they have on the glass. Buffalo is grabbing 2.6 more boards per game during MAC play than their opponents, while Buffalo is dead even. That should allow the team to get a few extra looks.
Eastern Michigan has put up some good defensive numbers, but that is largely due to playing a terrible schedule and of course the 8-for-61 gift that Northern Illinois supplied them a week and a half ago. This team has looked very average against the rest of the conference.
Buffalo wasn't shooting well early in the year but has hit their stride a little more as of late, shooting 46.3% over their last five games and holding opponents to just 41.1%.
Eastern Michigan's Glenn Bryant is questionable for this game and the Arkansas transfer is one of the best players on the team. If he's unable to go that's a lot of quality minutes that have to be eaten up by a weak bench. If he does play I can't imagine he's at 100%.
Buffalo is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1997.
|02-06-13||Baylor v. Oklahoma State -7||67-69||Loss||-110||13 h 9 m||Show|
3* on Oklahoma State -
Some might think the Cowboys are in a letdown spot after beating Kansas in Lawrence, but I think Oklahoma State keeps right on rolling. This team has now won three straight and has looked good in doing so.
The Cowboys last lost a couple of weeks ago to Baylor by a score of 64-54, but in that game they shot just 34.9% from the floor and made just two of their 16 3-point attempts. Baylor also shot 11 more free throws in that game. This sets us up for a nice little system that says you want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a same season loss to an opponent in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of over 60%. These teams are 111-63 (63.8%) over the last five seasons.
Baylor is an over-rated team that took advantage of a weak non-conference schedule to pad their numbers. This team is shooting 45.5% from the floor, but only 40.1% in their 8 conference games. The Bears have dropped back to back games to Oklahoma and Iowa State and I don't see them getting back on track against a hot Cowboys squad. Against common opponents this year Oklahoma State is 4-2 with a 10.2 ppg margin of victory while Baylor is just 3-4 with a 5.1 margin of victory. If you factor in the home court the Cowboys should be laying more than they are.
|02-05-13||Kansas State v. Texas Tech +11.5||68-59||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
3* Texas Tech +
Kansas State is in a bit of a letdown spot here today. Saturday they went to Oklahoma and pulled off a two point win over the Sooners in what was a hard fought, defensive battle that ended with a 52-50 final. It was a big win for the team, plus they have a rematch with Iowa State on deck. Plus, it puts us in a nice situation here today since you want to fade double digit favorites that are off a close win by three points or less when they have a winning record facing a losing team. This situation is 63-33 (65.6%) over the last five seasons. Also, Kansas State is 0-7 ATS on the road after giving up 55 or less the last three seasons.
Kansas State has done well in the conference by not turning the ball over, but they aren't grabbing many rebounds either. While they won't turn the ball over tonight against Texas Tech's no pressure defense, they won't get many rebounds either. With the Red Raiders being a decent rebounding team I'm giving them the edge on the glass and with that edge they should be able to keep it to single digits at home against a Wildcat team that doesn't score very many points.
|02-05-13||Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Indiana Pacers||103-114||Loss||-101||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Hawks +
I think we are getting a little bit of value with the Hawks here tonight. One reason is due to their ugly loss yet again to Chicago. Atlanta scored only 76 points and lost by 17 at home, but they have had a couple of days off to work on areas of concern and prepare for Indiana.
The Pacers on the other hand are coming off a few big wins. They beat Detroit at home by 19 points, then the Heat by 13. Last night they hosted the same Chicago Bulls the Hawks just got embarrassed by and won by 10 points. Indiana has now covered four straight and the public is going to be jumping on their bandwagon tonight against a Hawks team that hasn't covered in two straight.
However, with the Pacers are playing their fourth home game in a row Frank Vogel is just 8-24 ATS after playing two straight home games and he is 11-25 ATS after covering two or more in a row as the coach of Indiana.
How these teams have played recently also fits a nice little trend. You want to play against home teams off two straight double digit wins playing an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Fading these teams would have gone 36-14 (72%) over the last five years.
|02-05-13||Central Michigan +19.5 v. Akron||56-68||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
4* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +
I'll take the large number of points here tonight as I think Central Michigan keeps this one somewhat close. You aren't going to find a lot of public support for this play since Akron has won 13 straight games and two in a row at the pay window. They are coming off a 86-72 beating of their toughest MAC opponent in Ohio they could be in for a little bit of a letdown here tonight. All of this gives us a little bit of value with a line this big. Fading favorites of 10 or more points off nine or more wins is 201-124 (61.8%) the last five years, but when that team is facing a team with a losing record the system tightens to 79-45 (63.7%).
The fact that Akron won in such a blowout fashion is important in another way. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points off a home win in February, this situation is 210-135 (60.9%) over the last five seasons. However, when that team scored 85 or more points in their previous game this system tightens to 57-24 (70.4%).
Central Michigan is an ugly team. They don't shoot very well (39.8% on the year) and they give up a terrible field goal percentage (46.7%). However, what they do well is shoot free throws (hitting 72.4%). That puts them in a very favorable situation here tonight that says to take road underdogs of 10 or more points who make 72% or more of their free throws, shoot 42% or worse from the field, and allow 45% or better shooting from their opponents. These teams are 52-22 (70.3%) the last five years.
The free throw advantage is what keeps this thing closer than the oddsmakers expect. Central Michigan gets to the line three times more per game than opponents normally allow while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. Those extra freebies give us an edge with this one.
|02-04-13||Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz UNDER 199.5||91-98||Win||100||23 h 4 m||Show|
4* on the Kings/Jazz UNDER
This total has been set too high tonight. Sacramento is in a serious offensive funk right now. The Kings have scored 81 points or less in each of their last three games and haven't topped the century mark in seven straight outings.
Utah hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. Utah has scored 100 points or less in five of their last seven and are averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last five.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Utah's last 15 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-3 in the Kings last 15 games following a game where they allowed 110 points or more.
|02-04-13||Charlotte Bobcats +13 v. Miami Heat||94-99||Win||100||22 h 34 m||Show|
3* on Charlotte Bobcats + over Miami Heat
The Bobcats are showing some solid value as a double-digit underdog against Miami tonight. The Heat are in a pretty big letdown spot. Miami is playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and their third game in four days. Hard to see them giving max effort on either side of the ball when they know they can win this game without really trying.
While Miami won't be taking this game seriously, the Bobcats will be motivated to play well against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Look for Charlotte to be the more aggressive team and keep this game much closer than expected.
This play is backed by a proven system. Favorites of 10+ points who are strong offensive teams, scoring 99+ pp, after a game in which they allowed 85 points or less, are just 96-151 ATS since 1996!
|02-04-13||Los Angeles Clippers v. Washington Wizards +3.5||90-98||Win||100||21 h 5 m||Show|
3* on Washington Wizards + over the LA Clippers
Los Angeles is really struggling without Chris Paul. They have lost six of eight, including a 25-pt loss at Toronto Friday. The Clippers followed that up with a 104-106 loss at Boston yesterday. Now they must go to Washington on no rest and take on a much-improved Wizards team.
Washington comes in having lost four straight, but they did manage to cover the spread in their most recent defeat at San Antonio. The Wizards are a dominant 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games.
Not only are the Clippers in a bad spot playing with no rest and without their star, but they just got done playing a very up-tempo game yesterday against the Celtics. Los Angeles is a miserable 4-14 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams scored a 100 or more points during the last 3 seasons.
The other key here is that the Wizards have been playing much better at home. Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record.
|02-03-13||Marquette +11 v. Louisville||51-70||Loss||-110||15 h 39 m||Show|
4* BIG EAST BEST BET on Marquette +
Louisville has not played good basketball for the past few weeks and yet they are still laying double digits to a Marquette team that has. The Cardinals have lost four straight at the pay window and snuck by with a three point win over Pitt at home to end a three game straight up losing streak. Louisville isn't shooting the ball very well right now and that is going to cause them trouble against a Golden Eagle team that can defend. Marquette is allowing just 39.7% from the floor.
Louisville pressures the basketball but that can also lead to picking up a few too many fouls, and there aren't many teams better than Marquette at getting to the free throw line. The Golden Eagles rarely turn the ball over either, so I think they will be able to control the ball and keep from giving Louisville easy buckets in transition.
Marquette is 6-0 against common opponents and winning by 7.4 ppg. Louisville on the other hand is just 5-1, but winning by 12.5 ppg. I don't doubt that Louisville is the better team and they should pick up the win, but it's going to be a dog fight so I'll take the large number.
|02-03-13||Los Angeles Clippers -1 v. Boston Celtics||104-106||Loss||-102||14 h 49 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on LA Clippers -
Two teams that are dealing with injuries to their star point guards face off early on Sunday, and I like the Clippers to come out on top. LA was whooped last time out against Toronto by 25 points, and I think that got their attention back to focus on finishing this eight game road trip on a positive note.
Boston has won three in a row since losing Rondo for the season, but after the big win last Sunday over Miami the Celtics beat up on the Kings and the Magic, not two teams I'm impressed with them beating.
LA destroyed Boston at home back on December 27th, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Celtics will get their revenge. You want to play against home teams off a 20 point loss the last time the two teams met when their opponent is coming off a loss in their last game. This situation is 120-70 (63.2%) since 1996.
You also want to fade home teams off two straight double digit wins against an opponent coming off a game in which they scored less than 85 points. This situation is 36-12 (75%) the last five seasons.
You wan tot take teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg when they are coming off a 15+ point loss. These teams are 115-70 (62.2%) the following game.
I'll lay the small number as I think LA picks up the win in Boston.
|02-02-13||Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 193||99-105||Loss||-107||13 h 57 m||Show|
4* Blazers/Jazz UNDER
Hard not to like the Jazz and Blazers to go UNDER again tonight with the total just slightly lower than last night's. Portland and Utah played a very low scoring game in which the Jazz won 86-77 on their home floor. Now they travel up to Portland for a quick rubber match, and there isn't time to make offensive adjustments to change anything.
Portland shot just 36.7% from the floor while the Jazz only managed 43.2%. Utah was just 4-for-15 from behind the 3-point arc while the Blazers were 7-for-20. Portland managed just one quarter of more than 20 points, while the Jazz only managed 13 points in the final frame.
With two teams that are fighting for playoff spots against each other, I think the intensity will be there tonight and we are in for another low scoring affair.
|02-02-13||Santa Clara +6 v. Brigham Young||79-96||Loss||-108||12 h 28 m||Show|
4* on Santa Clara +
Santa Clara is a very under-rated team and I like them today to keep this game close against BYU in Provo. Santa Clara will definitely have revenge on their minds as the Cougars went on the road earlier this year and beat the Broncos on their home floor by 18 points. In that game BYU shots 53.6% from the floor and 50% from 3-point range while hitting 72.7% of their free throws. Santa Clara on the other hand made only 38.5% of their shots, 31.8% of their 3's and 46.7% of their free throws. On the year the Broncos are the BETTER shooting team than the Cougar so when those numbers regress towards the mean, it means these two teams are a lot more comparable than it appeared the first time they met.
Santa Clara is also the hotter team. They have won five in a row and have shot 48% or better in four of those five games. Both of these teams are on short rest as each played Thursday. However, I think Santa Clara probably snuck some extra practice time in preparing for this game as they had Portland Thursday, a team they beat by 24 points. BYU was on the road and lost to Pepperdine, a team they were favored to beat by double digits. You want to take road teams revering a home loss against an opponent playing on one or less days of rest. These teams are 337-235 (59%) the last five years.
|02-02-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 187.5||Top||86-115||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER
Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year.
New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record.
These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher.
A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years.
|02-02-13||South Dakota +18 v. North Dakota State||Top||46-65||Loss||-110||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* Summit League Game of the Year on South Dakota +
These two teams met back in early January and North Dakota State won by 26 points. However, a closer look at that game shows that the Bison hit 63.8% of their shots and 52.6% from behind the arc. They also hit 80% from the free throw line. Now, I know North Dakota State is a good shooting team but that was an aberration that significantly stretched out the margin of victory and gave us some line value with this game here today.
South Dakota has played 11 games against common opponents and while they are only 5-6, they are actually outscoring those foes by a total of 2.9 ppg. North Dakota State on the other hand clocks in at 9-3, but is outscoring those opponents by 12.7 ppg. The weak schedule the Bison has played also inflates their overall stats. North Dakota State's opponents get outscored by 2.8 ppg, while South Dakota's actually average a 1.2 point win.
One advantage to this matchup is South Dakota gets tot he free throw line, taking three more free throw attempts per game than their opponents normally allow. North Dakota State does foul a little more than average teams, so the Coyotes should be able to take advantage of their team free throw rate of 78.2% in this game.
A couple of systems support our play here. You want to fade home favorites playing their 2nd game in three days in February. This situation is 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. If you are fading double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more taking on an opponent off a double digit loss you would be 74-40 (65%) the last five seasons.
You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 436-298 (59.4%) over the last five seasons and when that team is off a conference road loss those numbers jump to 164-96 (63.1%).
|02-02-13||Sacramento Kings v. New York Knicks UNDER 202.5||81-120||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
4* on Kings/Knicks UNDER
The Kings are scoring just 91.7 ppg on the road and they actually give up 1.5 ppg less away from home too. The Knicks are a good defensive team that allows just 95.4 ppg at the Garden. Sacramento hasn't scored more than 96 points since back on January 21st and is doing off back-to-back 81 and 80 point performances.
The Knicks stopped the Milwaukee offense dead in it's tracks last night, giving up just 86 points on 39.8% shooting to the Bucks. New York has now held seven of their last eight opponents to 97 or less points.
You want to take the UNDER when the total is between 200-209.5 when a team is revering a loss as a favorite and that team has won 60% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 193-128 (60.1%) in this situation since 1996. You also want to take the UNDER in non-conference games when a team went under the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 58-19 (75.3%) the last five years in this situation.
|02-02-13||Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5||Top||93-76||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -
The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster.
You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks.
I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it.
|02-02-13||Miami Ohio v. Central Michigan -4||70-61||Loss||-106||10 h 27 m||Show|
3* on Central Michigan -
Miami Ohio is just 2-7 on the road this year, scoring 58.9 ppg while giving up 73.2. The Redhawks have lost four in a row, three of which came at home. Central Michigan has not been shooting the ball well lately but should be in for an easier go of things today against a Miami team that hasn't allowed less than 51% from the floor since January 12th.
The Chippewas love to shoot 3-pointers, attempting 24 per game on the year. The good news is they will be facing a Miami team that is allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from deep. These two teams have played seven common opponents. Central Michigan is just 3-4 with a -4.3 differential, but Miami is 2-5 and losing by 6.6 ppg.
Last year Central Michigan lost at Miami by 19 points so they should be out for a little bit of revenge here today. In that game they shot only 34% from the floor and 22.2% from behind the arc, while the Redhawks shot 53% from 3-point range. Those numbers should regress here today, so I'll take the home team that is better and gets the advantage of having their fans cheer them on.
|02-02-13||Buffalo v. Western Michigan -6||60-71||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
3* on Western Michigan -
This is too low of a number for the Broncos to be laying here today. Western Michigan is 13-7 on the year, winning by 4.3 ppg and 6-1 at home with a 13.8 margin of victory. Buffalo on the other hand is 8-13 and only 3-9 on the road, averaging a five point loss.
There are two areas were I think Western Michigan matches up extremely well with Buffalo. The first is they only allow 39.4% from the floor and Buffalo is a below average shooting team. The second is the Broncos get to the line five more times per game than their opponents normally allow and they hit 72.4% of their free ones. Buffalo gives up two more free throws per game than opponents normally take, so expect plenty of opportunities at the line for Western Michigan here today.
Western Michigan has won five games in a row, including the last two on the road. I think this Broncos team will be excited to get back home and keep the winning streak alive in front of the home crowd.
|02-02-13||Kansas State v. Oklahoma -3.5||52-50||Loss||-110||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* on Oklahoma -
Oklahoma is going to be out for revenge today when they take on Kansas State. The Sooners lost by nine up in Manhattan on January 19th, but this team is a lot better at home than on the road. Oklahoma is 7-1 and winning by 13.8 ppg on in Norman.
The Sooners have been playing well and is under-rated. Since their November 23rd loss to Gonzaga this team is 8-3 ATS and their three losses at the pay window were by 1.5, 1.5, and half a point.
Kansas State has played well this year, but they have only faced one real road test and that was last Saturday's six point loss up at Iowa State. This Wildcat team has played an easy schedule and that has inflated their numbers. They excel at defending the three point shot, but that isn't going to do them much good against a Sooner team that thrives inside.
Sure, the Wildcats are coming off a big win over Texas, but they are just 0-6 ATS on the road after a win by 15+ points the last two years and 4-12 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg the second half of the last two seasons.
|02-02-13||UMKC +20.5 v. South Dakota State||57-88||Loss||-110||8 h 29 m||Show|
3* on UMKC +
This is a quick turnaround for both teams today as they both took to the court Thursday night. The difference is that Thursday South Dakota State played their in-state rival South Dakota. Rivalry games tend to take a little more out of teams than normal contests. In fact, you want to fade double digit favorites off home wins against conference rivals in February games. This situation is 202-127 (61.4%) the last five seasons. When the line is 20+ those numbers jump to 92-49 (65.2%).
The focus and energy on today's game has to be an edge given to the Kangaroos. Double digit underdogs playing their second road game in three days in February are 88-37 (70.4%) the last five years. Even though UMKC was blown out last time out, that actually gives us a little bit of value with today's line. Underdogs of 20+ points off a double digit conference loss are 33-10 (76.7%) the last five Februarys.
I know South Dakota State took care of UMKC down in Kansas City rather easily. But that is yet another situation that opens up value for us today because 20+ point underdogs who are revenging a double digit home loss are 84-32 (72.4%) the last five years.
If you look at the scoring margins for these two teams you'll find them a little misleading. UMKC is losing by 10.1 ppg, while South Dakota State is winning by 6.9. However, the Jackrabbits opponents get beat by an average of two points per game, while the Kangaroos foes are winning by a point per game. The stronger schedule of UMKC has slightly de-valued their stat line and made them an under-rated team in conference play.
|02-02-13||Colorado v. Utah UNDER 126||55-58||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
4* on Colorado/Utah UNDER
There is a lot of value in this line today, even at such a low number. These two teams met three times last year with final scores of 41-53, 55-48, and 33-73. The totals of those games were 120, 126.5, and 130, so not too far off today's number and yet they all went drastically under.
For the season Colorado is scoring just 63.2 ppg on the road and allowing 66.8 ppg. Utah on the other hand only scores 65.4 ppg and they allow jut 59.7 ppg at home. Colorado allows opponents to shoot just 39.4% from the floor while the Utes give up 38% from the field. Neither team fouls so the game isn't going to be slowed down and points added while the clock is stopped.
So why are we getting value here today? Colorado has scored 75 and 81 points the last two games by shooting 52.6% and 59.6% from the field. One, they aren't that great of a shooting team so those numbers are not going to continue and two, Utah plays better defense than either Stanford or Cal anyway.
Utah just gave up 87 points in an embarrassing effort to Stanford. I think they tighten things up on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score under the total here today.
|02-01-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5||98-113||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
3* on Hornets/Nuggets OVER
There is some solid value with this line here tonight. New Orleans is averaging 93.6 ppg and only giving up 97.4, but if you look at their road splits those numbers jump up to 96.4 and 99.3. Not only that but this team has given up 100 or more points in six of their last seven games.
Now they take on one of the best scoring teams in the league, especially at home where the Nuggets are putting up 108 ppg on 47.5% shooting. Since New Orleans allows 46.7% from the floor that's not good news for them. Denver has scored 102 or more points in six straight games and Indiana was the team they put up 102 against, a lot better defense than they will face tonight. This one is going to be high scoring so take the OVER.
|02-01-13||Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||76-85||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5
I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington.
The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg.
You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way.
|02-01-13||Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18.5 v. Valparaiso||40-71||Loss||-106||10 h 18 m||Show|
3* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +
Both of these teams played Wednesday night and now have a quick turnaround playing again tonight. Typically the advantage in these situations falls with the underdog because fading double digit favorites who have covered 5 or 6 of their last seven against the spread playing on a day or less of rest has gone 79-40 ATS (66.4%) the last five years. If you had faded any double digit favorite playing their second game in three days in February you would have been 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. Add in the fact that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is out for revenge in this game and you fall into a 181-113 (61.6%) ATS system that says to take double digit underdogs out for revenge playing their 2nd game in three days.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a bad team, having lost four in a row and seven of their last eight. They are coming off a cover against Loyola though and that should give them some confidence with the quick turnaround. Valparaiso on the other hand might be in a letdown situation. They snapped a six game losing streak on Wednesday losing by double digits as a three point favorite at Youngstown State. You want to fade home favorites off an upset loss by ten points or more that play an opponent off a double digit road loss. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3%) the last five seasons.
I think there is value in the large dog tonight, so I'll take the big number.
|02-01-13||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183||Top||89-102||Loss||-101||9 h 59 m||Show|
5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER
This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996.
When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons.
The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average.
These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total.
|02-01-13||Rider +8 v. Fairfield||Top||59-69||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
5* Friday Night NO BRAINER on Rider +
Rider is going to be out for revenge against Fairfield here tonight. They lost back on December 9th loss at home, but in that game the Broncs shot just 37.8% from the field and made two of their seven 3-point attempts. They also turned the ball over 29 times which is uncharacteristically high for a team averaging only 16 a game and a Fairfield defense that forces 14 per contest.
There is also some value in this line due to the face that Rider is off two home upset home losses. Rebounding and defense were issues in those games and you can bet the Broncos worked hard in practice this week to correct those mistakes. The Stags on the ether hand are coming off a pair of wins, but that stopped the bleeding on a five game losing streak. This fits a nice little system that says to fade home favorites off two straight conference wins when they are playing a team off two straight double digit home losses. This situation is 44-13 ATS (77.2%) since 1997.
The numbers support our play here tonight. The Broncs are dead even on the year, scoring 64 ppg while giving up 64.1 while the Stags are outscoring their foes by 2.2 ppg. The difference is that Rider has played the tougher schedule which makes these teams even more even than their margins.
The matchup advantage to watch will be how well Rider does getting to the line. They typically shoot a higher rate of free throws than their opponents normally allow, while Fairfield is known to be a foul machine. Those extra shots from the charity stripe will add up, and keep this game close. I'll take the points in a game the Broncos could easily win outright.
|01-31-13||Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206||Top||97-100||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER
Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much.
Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line.
The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER!
|01-31-13||Troy +11.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||61-65||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Troy +
This is too many points for Troy to be getting against Western Kentucky. The Trojans are 4-6 in the conference, but the Hilltoppers are only 5-6 themselves. The margin of victory in conference games shows Troy at -3 and Western Kentucky at dead even and they have played very similar conference schedules.
The first time these two teams met Western Kentucky won by four points. However, they grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Trojans, including 13 more on the offensive side of the ball. They do have a small rebounding advantage, but you can bet Troy concentrates on hitting the boards tonight to even up that advantage and keep this game close. Plus, they had Jamal Crook that game and he's been out since December 16th. It's no surprise these team was 8-3 with him and 3-8 without him.
Troy continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. They have now won four of six and have covered fix of six. Western Kentucky on the other hand has lost three in a row, and six of seven both straight up and against the spread. They are shooting horrifically, not having broken the 40% mark in their last three games. Their sole win during this stretch was against a terrible Lafayette team at home when they held their opponent to 28.8% shooting.
A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When the underdog is off an upset win as a road underdog the system tightens to 54-21 (72%).
|01-31-13||UMKC +19 v. North Dakota State||34-71||Loss||-106||12 h 9 m||Show|
4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UMKC +
A lot of points being given up by North Dakota State here as they play host to UMKC. The value is with the Kangaroos who are coming off a loss at home as an eight point favorite against Nebraska-Omaha, giving UMKC their second straight loss. The key though is both of those games were at home. UMKC travels very well as evidenced by the three game stretch before their two losses were they covered the number and did so quite comfortably.
North Dakota State is a good team that doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but one weakness is they don't get to the foul line very often. This negates an advantage they would have in that UMKC is a foul happy team. Their main advantage lies with their 3-point shooting against a porous Kangaroo perimeter defense. The only issue with that is when you get up double digits in the second half, coaches want to kill clock and bang it inside, not continue to chuck 3-point shots.
North Dakota State did beat UMKC by 19 points earlier in the year, but like I said this team plays a lot better on the road than they do at home. I think they keep the margin a little bit closer this time around.
A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When that loss was by double digits the system tightens to 434-296 (60%).
|01-31-13||Eastern Kentucky v. Tennessee-Martin +10||65-72||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* on Tennessee-Martin +
Eastern Kentucky is a solid team but they are a little banged up right now. Glenn Cosey leads the team in scoring and has missed six straight games with a finger injury, while Orlando Williams has missed three straight too. Cosey is doubtful and Williams is questionable tonight, so the team might be a little short-handed as they take to the road against Tennessee-Martin.
Tennesee-Martin broke a four game straight up and against the spread losing streak last time out when they pulled the upset off against SIU Edwardsville. That should give this team confidence heading into this game, but Eastern Kentucky is going to have to stay focused after a hard fought game against Belmont. That was a big game and a chance to prove themselves against some elite competition and they failed. Not only that, but they allowed Belmont to shoot 67.4% from the floor against them.
I know Eastern Kentucky has been shooting well lately and could put up a big number, but history works against them there. Double digit favorites who have made 47% or more of their shots over the last four games are actually just 83-134 (38.2%) ATS, making it a nice fade and a play for Tennessee-Martin.
|01-31-13||Hofstra +10 v. James Madison||41-62||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
4* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hofstra +
This is going to be an ugly, low scoring game and this is too many points to pass up on in this spot. Hofstra is just 2-5 in Colonial play but they are only losing by 3.9 ppg. James Madison stands at 6-3 but they are winning by 1.8 ppg. You can see where they might not be quite as good as their wins and losses show.
Neither one of these teams is good offensively. Both shoot at a lower rate than their opponents normally allow. James Madison has been getting points by getting to the line and converting, but Hofstra is a team that plays hands off defense. However, they do a good job of getting to the charity stripe and James Madison has a propensity to foul, so that alone should help the Pride put points on the board.
James Madison has three straight wins, but they were favorites in each. Sure they have the home floor but last year the road team took each game of the series. Six of the last seven games in this series have been decided by three points or less and James Madison hasn't beat Hofstra by double digits since 1/12/2002.
You want to fade double digit favorites who are off a conference win when playing a team off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams scored 65 or less. These teams are 156-91 (63.2%) the last five years when playing on the road.
|01-31-13||Samford +18.5 v. Davidson||51-71||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
3* on Samford +
This is a few too many points for Davidson to be laying in this game and it comes from a little better name recognition and how they played last time out. Davidson went on the road Saturday and took App State to the wood shed. Holding them to 30.2% shooting while shooting 51% themselves. However, they are facing a little better team here tonight and even though this game is on the road, they are expected to win by the same margin.
Samford is 5-2 in Southern conference play, winning by three points per game. They went on the road as 15 point underdogs against College of Charleston and picked up the straight up win. Their only loss came by two points on the road to UNC-Greensboro. This team has shot very well in conference play and should be able to keep somewhat up with the high scoring Davidson attack.
You want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win of 20 or more when they play an opponent off a close loss by three or less. This situation is 65-35 (65%) over the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a road loss when playing a team that is coming off two straight road wins. This situation is 57-23 (71.2%) the last five years.
|01-30-13||Cal Santa Barbara +11 v. Long Beach State||55-57||Win||100||15 h 6 m||Show|
4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UC-Santa Barbara +
This is a few too many points for the Gauchos to be getting tonight against the 49ers. Sure Long Beach has a 11-8 record compared to the 7-12 mark for Santa Barbara, but the point differential is more telling. The 49ers are losing their games by 2.4 ppg while the Gauchos are losing theirs by 4.7, showing these two teams are more even than they appear.
I know Santa Barbara is weak defensively, but that is mainly due to trouble against the 3-point shot. Long Beach isn't a great 3-point shooting team so I don't know if they can exploit that weakness. On the other hand UCSB shoots a LOT of 3-pointers and makes a decent percentage while the 49ers give up a higher percentage than their opponents normally make, giving us an advantage with the Gauchos.
Santa Barbara has lost two straight as a home favorite while Long Beach is on a six game winning streak. The Gauchos have lost five of six at the pay window and the 49ers have won five of six. All this translates into the oddsmakers over-adjusting for this game tonight and the value is with the road team.
You want to fade home double digit favorites off a home win against a conference rival when taking on an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. their opponent. These teams are 762-553 (58%) of the last five seasons.
|01-30-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +3||86-92||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
3* on Phoenix Suns +
Now that the Lakers have won three straight games everyone is jumping back on the wagon, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. All three of LA's win came at home, but now they must take to the road again where they are just 5-15 on the year.
Last night they played a feisty Hornets team at home and it took everything they had to hold off New Orleans and pick up the win. Now this old team has to take to the road on back-to-back nights and I think it's going to affect them more than oddsmakers think.
Phoenix isn't a very good team but at home they have been more than respectable in going 11-11. They lost their last two games fairly badly, but those two games were played outside the state of Arizona.
I like the Suns catching points against a sub. 500 team that is playing on no rest, especially when that team is older like the Lakers and might have more troubles with no rest than others.
|01-30-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Utah Jazz -7.5||99-104||Loss||-105||12 h 38 m||Show|
3* on Utah Jazz -
I like the Jazz to bounce back tonight after their embarrassing loss to Houston the other night by 45 points. It was the worst home loss in franchise history and you can bet the team will be motivated to come out and wash that bad taste out of their mouths against the Hornets. Since Utah was on a six game home winning streak before that game and they have a very strong historical home court advantage I think that was an outlier more than the start of a trend.
New Orleans on the other hand has been playing well, but will come into this game off a back-to-back. Not only was that game hard fought, but it was against one of the league's marquee teams in the Lakers. New Orleans gave that game all they had and still came away with the loss. Now they have to continue their road trip in a hostile environment playing a team that is fighting for one of the last spots in the Western Conference playoff race.
I'll lay the number here as I think Utah wins by double digits.
|01-30-13||Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||104-88||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight.
Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division.
A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee.
|01-30-13||Drake v. Southern Illinois -3||61-56||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Southern Illinois -
Southern Illinois is going to be out for revenge here against Drake tonight. The Bulldogs have not only beaten the Salukis the last seven times these two teams have met, but the four times at home as well.
Southern Illinois has lost four in a row and three in a row at the pay window, so the team is struggling. The team was an underdog in all four so it's not like they were expected to win, plus Creighton is the only team that blew them out by a few points more than was expected. Drake has pulled off a couple of nice upset wins recently at Illinois State and at home over Creighton, but against the bottom teams in the conference like UNI and Missouri State they have come up empty.
Drake is 5-14 AST as a road underdog the last two years and Southern Illinois is 51-28 ATS after a game with nine or less assists since 1997. I think the recent play of these two teams has Drake over-valued and Southern Illinois under-valued, so the small home favorite is appealing here tonight.
|01-30-13||Central Florida +3 v. Tulane||58-50||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
3* on Central Florida +
Tulane is an over-valued team that has lost three of their last four. Their only conference wins came at home against bad teams in Tulsa and Rice. They have on win on the year against a team that even is in the top 130 of my power rankings and it was against Alabama back on December 30th.
Central Florida on the other hand has looked good in Conference USA play. They have won four of their five games and three in a row. Their only loss came against East Carolina on the road and occurred in overtime.
The Knights are efficient on offense and defense, while Tulane has struggled on both ends of the floor in conference play. Over the last five games UCF is showing 47.4% from the floor while allowing 41.4%. Tulane on the other hand is giving up 47.5% and shooting only 38.4%.
Central Florida has won five straight in this series and is the better team here today. They should win this one outright.
|01-30-13||William Mary +8 v. Delaware||Top||56-66||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on William & Mary +
We played on Delaware Monday night to end their three game losing streak both straight up and at the pay window and they came through for us against Drexel, but due to that upset win they are laying too many points here tonight to William & Mary. Drexel got off to a great start in that game and had a double digit lead late but nearly blew the game and cost themselves a win. They are on short rest and after an emotional win like that I think this team is going to be a little spent coming into this matchup.
If you look at these two teams you see very even 8-11 to 9-11 records, but the scoring margins tell a different story. The Tribe are actually outscoring their opponents by 0.3 ppg while the Fighting Blue Hens are losing by 1.4 ppg. The Tribe are only 2-6 in the conference, but they have lost two games this year on the road in double overtime so they could just as easily be 4-4.
I'll take the large number of points here with an undervalued team taking on an opponent on short rest.
|01-30-13||Appalachian State +11.5 v. Coll Of Charleston||59-72||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
3* on Appalachian State +
I know College of Charleston gets after it on the defensive side of the floor, but they are not good enough offensively to be laying double digits here to Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are not as bad as their 8-11 record would indicate as they are only losing by one ppg. The Cougars may come into this one at 14-7 but they are only outscoring opponents by three points per game, so the difference between the two teams isn't enough to justify the high point spread.
The reason for this big number is two fold. One is that Charleston is coming off a 29 point whooping of Wofford, but one game does not make a season. The other is that App State has lost four in a row against the spread and is coming off a 21 point loss to Davidson. Davidson though is an elite team and they were getting double digits there so the blowout isn't a shocker to me. I think the lines have been over-adjusted due to the recent play, and there is value on the road dog here tonight.
You want to play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This system is 73-39 (62.2%) over the last five seasons. App State is 18-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years and 10-1 ATS against teams allowing opponents to shoot less than 42%. They are also 10-2 ATS as a double digit dog the last three years and 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss by 20 points or more since 1997.
|01-30-13||Massachusetts +9.5 v. La Salle||61-60||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
3* on UMass +
La Salle is being over-rated here today because of how they have played lately, and I think that is also why the Minutemen have a great chance of pulling off the upset. This Explorers team is coming off back to back wins against Butler and VCU. That is no easy feat, but it primes them for a letdown against UMass today.
The Minutemen aren't a team you want to face with less than your full focus either. This team lost early to NC State and Miami, which looking back doesn't seem so bad. They have some decent wins against Richmond last time out, East Carolina, Providence and Harvard too.
LaSalle plays pretty solid defense because they force a lot of turnovers, but UMass takes care of the ball. They also shoot at a decent rate and with the Explorers giving up a lot of easy buckets trying to force turnovers, they shouldn't have a problem putting points on the board tonight. LaSalle on the other hand can struggle to score. UMass's main problem si they foul too much but the Explorers are not a good foul drawing team.
This is a good matchup for the Minutemen and they are catching enough points for me to take them.
|01-30-13||Northwestern +17 v. Michigan||46-68||Loss||-107||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* on Northwestern +
Jordan Morgan is doubtful tonight and while the Michigan Wolverines have plenty of other talent on this team, he's a solid role player who rebounds and gets his points efficiently. I think his loss will be felt more than most people think. Michigan has a tough stretch with Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up so I don't think they are going to go all out with a player already down to injury. They will want to save up for the upcoming game that will go a long way to determining the Big Ten champion.
You want to fade double digit favorites off a win against a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by double digits. This situation is 100-52 (66%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs who are revering a home loss to an opponent when two winning teas meet. These underdogs are 111-58 (66%) since 1997.
Coach Bill Carmody is 21-9 ATS at Northwestern when playing teams that have won 80% more of their games during the second of the season and this team is 6-0 ATS on the road after allowing opponents to score 30 or less in the first half of two straight games.
|01-29-13||Nevada +14.5 v. UNLV||54-66||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
3* BAILOUT on Nevada +
I think this is a few too many points for Nevada to be getting in this rivalry game against UNLV. The Rebels don't force many turnovers and the Wolfpack are a solid ball handling team, so they should get plenty of possessions that end in shots.
Another thing I like about this game is how well Nevada gets to the line, and UNLV has a propensity to foul their opponents. On the other hand the Rebels don't shoot many free ones while the Wolfpack play defense without fouling. Nevada shoots four more free throw attempts than their opponents usually average and they hit 75% of their attempts.
You want to play on road underdogs off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog playing their 3rd game in a week. These teams are 106-63 ATS (62.7%) over the last five seasons.
UNLV hasn't won a conference game by more than 12 points. This team was favored by double digits against Air Force and only covered by five. Nevada has two upset wins in their last three games, and while I don't think they win outright they should keep it close like they did last year when they played the Rebels to a 67-71 final in Las Vegas.
|01-29-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons||117-90||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
The Bucks are on a bit of a roll in winning four of their last five and seven of ten since canning Scott Skiles, but I think they are in a bad spot here tonight. The Pistons have been playing pretty well lately themselves, covering four of their last five games and they have won their last two home games by 15 points each.
The Bucks are over-valued a little bit because they have a decent record at 23-19, but they are actually getting outscored by their opponents. Detroit on the other hand is 17-27 but is only getting outscored by one ppg so I think they are better than their wins and losses reflect.
Milwaukee has to take to the road tomorrow night and face the Chicago Bulls. Now that they have played themselves into the playoff picture I'm sure the players might be looking ahead against a tougher opponent and might just slip up tonight in Detroit. I'll back the home team.
|01-29-13||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5||108-95||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has been paying excellent basketball lately, winning three in a row as outright underdogs of four points or more. Now they are an underdog at home again versus a Golden State team that is playing their fourth game in five nights.
Golden State might appear to be a good road team with their 13-11 record and their win in Toronto last night, but this team is giving up 102.3 ppg away from home and only scoring 100.7. That's not the margin of a winning team, rather a losing one.
The Warriors are 54-81 ATS on the road after scoring 110 or more points and 78-107 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite since 1996. The Cavs keep their streak alive and pull off another upset win here at home.
|01-28-13||Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz OVER 207.5||125-80||Loss||-100||16 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER
I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall.
The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183.
These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER.
The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year.
|01-28-13||Sacramento Kings +8 v. Washington Wizards||96-94||Win||100||14 h 12 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Sacramento Kings +
The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Washington Wizards tonight in this spot. The Wizards have won 10 straight games against the spread and five upset wins during that stretch. The Kings on the other hand have lost four straight both straight up and against the spread so are out of favor with oddsmakers and the public alike.
However, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they have beat the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games against opponents who were beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 24-7 (77.4%) the last five seasons.
Sacramento did beat Washington during their streak by one as a five point favorite, so they have had some recent success against this Wizards team. I think they keep it close again tonight and pick up the cover.
|01-28-13||Delaware +5 v. Drexel||66-64||Win||100||20 h 28 m||Show|
3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Delaware +
These are two very evenly matched teams but we are getting some value here due to the way the two teams have played recently. Drexel has had three straight wins while Delaware has lost three straight. What makes those losses even more frustrating is they were only getting 1.5 points last time out and were favored the previous two games. The public and most bettors might be bailing on this team, but I think this is a good spot for them to get out of a rut.
Delaware has been a good team at bouncing back, going 35-18 ATS on the road after a double digit loss since 1997. Drexel on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite this year and head coach Bruiser Flint is just 12-24 ATS after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot less than 33% from the floor.
The fact that Drexel played on Saturday while Delaware hasn't played since Thursday means the Blue Hens had more time to prepare and should keep this one close.
You want to take underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two margin losing teams (winning percentage in the 40's). These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.
|01-27-13||Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks -7||95-110||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas -
The Phoenix Suns have been playing good basketball since making their coaching change, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. They played back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday, had Friday off before heading to San Antonio to take on the Spurs last night. Now they get Dallas on back-to-back off a tough loss to San Antonio. You want to take home favorites who are playing their second game in five days against a team who is playing their 4th in five. These teams are 32-9 (78%) ATS the last five years.
Dallas has been playing extremely well lately. They have won five of seven, but have covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored more than 103 points in eight straight games. Phoenix on the other hand has broken the century mark just once in 2013. I think the Mavs have more offensive firepower and they blow the Suns out by double digits here today.
|01-27-13||Florida Intl. +5 v. South Alabama||58-60||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Florida International +
Florida International is coming on strong and I think they are going to get their revenge here today. South Alabama won on the road in the first matchup by a score of 79-68, but they shot 13-of-24 (54.2%) from 3-point range to do so. Florida International on the other hand was just 6-of-24 (25%). Since both these teams shoot 34.1% on the year and Florida International is better at defending the three, this stat alone should even out and cause this to be a closer game.
The Golden Panthers are playing some great basketball lately too. They have won seven of their last eight games and two of those were upset victories. They haven't been favored by double digits in that time either, so they are getting the job against teams they should be but not necessarily inferior competition. I think they carry that success over here today.
You want to take teams revenging a home loss when they are off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. These teams are 247-163 (60.2%) when getting points.
|01-27-13||Manhattan +6.5 v. Rider||62-51||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Manhattan +
I like Manhattan to get their revenge against Rider on Sunday. The Jaspers were upset by the Broncs back on 1/10 by a score of 69-60, but a couple of things happened in that game that make me think the roles will be reversed this time.
First, Rider out rebounded Manhattan by 16 boards, and they aren't especially strong on the glass. In fact, they get out rebounded on the season. Second, they shot twice as many free throws as the Jaspers. Both teams foul more than they should to send the opposition to the line, but that was an outlier.
This should be a low scoring game since both teams are strong defensively and weak on the offensive side of the floor, so I'll take the points when they will be coming at a premium today.
A system that supports our play says to take the road team when they are revenging a loss against an opponent and playing with one day of rest or less. These teams are 336-235 (58.8%) over the last five seasons.
|01-26-13||Indiana Pacers +2.5 v. Utah Jazz||110-114||Loss||-110||15 h 53 m||Show|
3* on Indiana Pacers +
This is a good spot to take Indiana here tonight. The Pacers are off a disappointing 20 point loss at Portland on Wednesday but had a couple of days to rest up and prepare for Utah here tonight. Utah on the other hand is playing their third game in four nights and is coming off a back-to-back. They lost badly to the Lakers last night in LA and now have to travel back home to face an angry Indiana team.
The Pacers are also the better team in my mind. They are outscoring opponents by nearly two points per game and even though Utah's record stands at 23-19, they are dead even in scoring margin.
You want to take road teams after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, when they are a good team that has won 60%+ of their games on the season. These teams are 54-28 ATS in this situation the last five years. You also want to fade teams revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 81-42 (65.9%) ATS the last five years.
|01-26-13||Austin Peay St +6.5 v. Tennessee Tech||52-70||Loss||-110||22 h 54 m||Show|
4* CBB NO DOUBT ROUT on Austin Peay +
Two bad teams meet up today but I think Austin Peay takes home an easy cover. They are 16-6 ATS on the road against teams scoring less than 64 points per game since 1997 while Tennessee Tech is just 1-8 ATS at home against teams with a losing record the last three seasons.
Tennessee Tech is one of the worst shooting teams I have seen. They are coming off a 13-for-51 (25.5%) performance against Murray State, but they have now shot 37% or worse in six of their last seven games. Austin Peay on the other hand is coming off back-to-back games in which they shot 50% or better from the field.
Tennessee Tech doesn't play bad defense, but they are a little more susceptible from behind the arc and the Governors are making 42.4% of their 3-point shots on the road this season. Defensively, Austin Peay isn't the greatest but I don't think that is going to matter against a team that shoots as bad as Tennessee Tech does.
|01-26-13||Florida v. Mississippi State +20.5||82-47||Loss||-110||21 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Mississippi State +
This is a little too good of value for me to pass up on. Right now these two teams couldn't be any different in the public's eyes. You have Mississippi State who has lost three games in a row both straight up and against the spread. They have been beaten by 15+ points in each game and now they face a Florida team that has won seven in a row since a loss to Kansas State and have covered in six straight games.
The Gators aren't just winning but they are winning in convincing fashion. They have won by 15 or more points in each of their last seven games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the Gators to stay focused playing a bad team here Saturday night.
Teams find it tough to maintain a high level of focus against weak competition. That is why if you would have faded double digit favorites who have won 80%+ of their games and have also covered four straight games you would be 40-16 ATS the last five seasons if you backed a team with a losing record. You also want to fade favorites of 20+ off a double digit win against a conference rival. This situation is 64-32 ATS the last five years.
|01-26-13||New York Knicks -3 v. Philadelphia 76ers||80-97||Loss||-105||12 h 23 m||Show|
3* on New York Knicks -
This is too small of a number for New York to be laying here tonight. The Knicks are 26-14 on the season and winning by 4.8 ppg while the Sixers are 17-25 on the year and losing by 4.2 ppg. New York has played well in winning three of their last four games, including a road win at Boston Thursday night. They were favored by -1.5 in that game and now lay only one point more against a worse team.
The Sixers have lost eight of their last 10 with the two wins coming over Toronto and a Houston team that is slumping badly. Now they face a Knicks team that they have lost to by a combined 38 points in two games this season. I don't think now is the time they get back on track as I expect the Knicks to win handily here tonight.
|01-26-13||Oklahoma +14 v. Kansas||54-67||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Oklahoma +
This is too many points for the Jayhawks to be laying to a pretty good Oklahoma Sooners team. Kansas was favored by only 11 points at home against Colorado, 12 v. Belmont, 15 against Richmond, 13 v. Temple, 11.5 against Iowa State, and 10.5 against Baylor. Oklahoma is right in the mix with all of those teams and yet is getting a few extra points here today.
Kansas is hot right now and stand at 14-1 on the season, but that doesn't mean they have looked good the entire year. Temple played them tough down to the wire and Iowa State took them to overtime. This team is coming off two close wins at Texas and Kansas State. They haven't been shooting nearly as good and that is going to make it difficult for the Jayhawks to cover a large spread like this.
You want to fade double digit favorites coming off 10 or more straight wins. Doing so would have given you a 156-90 (63.4%) ATS record the last five years. If it's a team that has won 80%+ of their games playing a team that has won at least 60%, the record jups to 62-29 (68.1%). I'll take the points as I think this one is closer than the oddsmakers think.
|01-26-13||UCLA v. Arizona St UNDER 141.5||Top||60-78||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
5* Pac-12 Total of the Year on UCLA/Arizona State UNDER
Both of these teams are off some high scoring games, but I think points will be at a premium here tonight. Arizona State is coming off an overtime win against USC on Thursday night by a score of 98-93. They shot over 50% and allowed over 49%. This is a team that allowed five of six opponents to shoot less than 37.5% at the end of December and beginning of January, so I think they will tighten things up after a defensive lapse last time out. For the season they are allowing opponents to shoot only 38.6% on their home floor.
UCLA has been playing some higher scoring games this year than in year's past, but they are scoring 9 less points per game on the road than they are at home. they do not shoot a lot of three point baskets, so they don't get points in a hurry, but they also defend the three well, allowing opponents to shoot just 29% against them. Neither team fouls, so points from the charity stripe won't be easy to come by either.
This will be a low scoring game and the odds makers have over adjusted for what happened last time out. Take the UNDER as it should cash with ease.
|01-26-13||DePaul +16.5 v. Pittsburgh||55-93||Loss||-100||17 h 24 m||Show|
4* BIG EAST BLOOD BATH on DePaul +
This is a classic look ahead spot for the Pitt Panthers. They are playing a not very good DePaul team today, but on Monday have a big showdown with Louisville. Don't think that these kids aren't looking ahead to that game, regardless of Louisville suffering a couple of losses this week.
I know DePaul blew their chance for a conference win by losing at home to St. John's last time out. However, you want to fade double digit home favorites who are off a conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. Doing so would have gone 80-42 (65.6%) ATS the last five seasons. DePaul has had all week to think about that loss and to help motivate them to get back to business since the loss occurred last Saturday. Don't think these kids didn't go at it hard this week to try to prepare for Pitt.
These two have played three common opponents this season and DePaul was only outscored by 5.3 points, Pitt on the other hand only averaged a one point victory. This is a lot of points, and too good to pass up.
|01-26-13||Dartmouth +16.5 v. Harvard||Top||77-82||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
5* IVY LEAGUE NO BRAINER OF THE YEAR on Dartmouth +
Dartmouth isn't very good, but this is a lot of points to be getting here today. They are only 4-11 on the year, but they are losing by a score of 64.9 to 60.3 so their record is worse than they really are. Harvard is a good team that comes into this game at 9-6 but they play at a slow pace, so beating a team by nearly 20 points is a tall order in my mind. They haven't attempted more than 48 shots in any of their last four games.
Both of these teams might be a little rusty to start out, since Dartmouth has each has played just one time since they last met back on 1/12. Harvard won that game by 10 points, but they aren't going to shoot 60%+ from the field again so getting to a double digit victory seems like a stretch to me.
Dartmouth is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road when playing against a team with a winning record the second half of the last three seasons while Harvard is 0-7 ATS at home after two straight games in which they attempted 50 or less shots the last two years.
A solid system supports our play here that say to take double digit underdogs who are revenging a home loss v. an opponent. These teams are 761-552 (58%) ATS over the last five seasons, but when you tighten it up where the team is revenging a double digit home loss the system is 394-263 (60%).
|01-25-13||Utah Jazz +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||84-102||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
3* Utah Jazz +
The Lakers are not a good team right now and I've lost all confidence in them. Not only that but they are in a pretty bad rest situation. LA played three road games in four nights, then only had a day off before heading home to face the Jazz.
Utah on the other hand is playing only their third game in 11 days and has won four in a row, six of seen, and eight of their last 10. Even though they aren't great on the road they have won three of their last five away from home.
Everyone keeps thinking the Lakers are going to come around at some point, but this team just doesn't fit well together. Dwight Howard is back to his pouting ways and having Gasol play limited minutes off the bench is laughable. I'll keep fading them until they prove me wrong.
A solid situation backs our play that says to fade teams out for double revenge that are off three or more straight road losses. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4%) over the last five seasons.