4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Suns OVER

There has been no shortage of scoring from both of these teams coming out of the All-Star break. Over their last five games the Spurs have averaged 106.4 points per game. They put up 113 points against the Clippers in their first game following the break, then scored 111 points on Portland in the second half of a back-to-back. The defense has not been great either, allowing 102.6 points per game over their last five.

For the Suns it has been business as usual on offense. They average 107.6 points per game at home this season, and are scoring 107.8 points per game over their last five. The value on the over from Phoenix' side of things comes from the fact that the defense that has allowed 101.8 points per game overall this season is giving up an astonishing 107 points per game over their last five games. Now they will be tasked with facing a great offensive team like the Spurs, which should lead to a lot of points being scored tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the over. You should take the over when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off a win by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two straight wins by six points or less. The Spurs squeaked by Portland in their last outing, and the Suns picked up wins over Denver and Boston by five and six points, respectively. This system is 130-73 (64%) in favor of the over.

4* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

This matchup features two teams that are headed in completely opposite directions. Chicago comes into this game having won five of their last six games, including the last four consecutive, while the Nuggets are trying to avoid a sixth consecutive loss. Denver has now lost seven of its last nine games, eight of those nine also resulting in losses against the spread.

After a slow start to the season many were ready to write the Bulls off. However, their outstanding defensive play gives them a chance against even the best teams in the league. Luckily, tonight they are not facing one of the best teams. Chicago has surrendered a mere 90.1 points per game, and they have the luxury of hosting a Denver team that is suffering through a major scoring slump. The Nuggets are averaging 95.2 points per game over their last five games, while allowing over 118 points per game on the defensive end of the court.

Something is really wrong in Denver right now, and the Nuggets are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon. The Nuggets are 12-24 ATS when playing their second game in five games over the last two seasons. This is the second half of a back-to-back situation for the Nuggets after playing on the road against Milwaukee last night. The Bulls on the other hand are coming into this game with a day of rest, and with home court advantage I think they make easy work of the Nuggets.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers +

The Cavaliers entered the All-Star Break winning four consecutive games, and coming out of the break they are showing no signs of slowing down. Cleveland picked up back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Orlando in their last two outings, making it six consecutive victories for the Cavaliers. Now they have the luxury of facing a Raptors team that coming off split of back-to-back games coming out of the break.

The Cavaliers are playing great basketball on both ends of the court right now. The defense has been a soft spot for Cleveland this season, but over its past five games the Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 89.8 points per game. The offense is scoring 101.6 points per game during that stretch which has given them a double-digit margin of victory. That puts the Raptors in a very tough spot facing a red hot team like the Cavaliers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Toronto. You should fade home favorites when they have won two of their last three games, and they are facing an opponent that has won six or more of their last eight games. This system has a 138-81 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back against the spread when they are playing on the road. It seems the oddsmakers have once again undervalued the 49ers in tonight's matchup with Cal-Davis. The Aggies are suffering through a rough season, and with only six games left it looks like they are ready to throw in the towel early.

The 49ers may not have a great overall record, but that is because of an extremely difficult non-conference schedule. In conference play Long Beach State has posted a 7-4 record, and they currently sit in third place in the Big West standings. Long Beach State still has a lot to play for, and I think they will come out and play a complete game against the Aggies, taking an early lead and never looking back.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Cal-Davis. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Aggies when they are trying to revenge a same season loss, and they are coming off two straight losses against conference opponents. This system has a 160-92 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout on Southern Utah +

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds have a good chance to pick up their first Big Sky win of the season tonight. They played Portland State last month in Portland and managed to stick to within three points. This time the venue changes and with home court advantage I like Southern Utah to play a great game.

These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions right now. Portland State is getting worse, riding a four game losing streak coming into this matchup. The Thunderbirds are not winning games, but they are certainly playing better basketball now than they did earlier this season. Over their last five games the Thunderbirds have surrendered a mere 67.2 points per game. Portland State is allowing 73.1 points per game to conference opponents and 75.1 points per game on the road, and I think the Vikings will struggle against the Thunderbirds tonight.

You should play against favorites like Portland State when they are coming off an upset loss to a conference opponent and they have won 40 to 49% of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 63-29 (69%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Based on the way this game ended the last time these teams met, we are getting a lot of value on the Thunderbirds tonight.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat +

The Thunder have not played in a week, and now they will be tasked with facing a very motivated Miami Heat team. Miami needs a strong second half performance this season to catch up with the Indiana Pacers as the No. 1 seed in the East. The Heat put on a dominating performance in their first game following the All-Star break, handing the Mavericks an 11-point loss in Dallas.

Miami has an underrated defense, and I like their chances to keep the Thunder in check tonight. The Heat have held opponents to 98.4 points per game on the road this season. The Thunder on the other hand did not play well defensively entering the All-Star break. Oklahoma City was surrendering 99.6 points per game their last five games, which is quite a bit higher than their overall defensive scoring average on the season.

Miami is 8-0 ATS in road games when facing a team that is averaging 103 points per game or more over the last two seasons. They are 36-20 ATS in road games against teams that attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The Heat are also a great team to back when playing for revenge. They are 19-8 ATS when revenging a same season loss against their opponent, and after losing to the Thunder in the last meeting I like their chances to pick up a win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Jacksonville State +

This is a lot of points for Jacksonville State to be receiving in a game that features two evenly matched teams. The Gamecocks and Redhawks have similar records against Ohio Valley opponents, and statistically it is the Gamecocks that have the advantage. SE Missouri State has not received a lot of benefit at home this year, posting a 6-4 overall record, but a 0-7 record against the spread in those games.

The Gamecocks defense will be their biggest advantage in this matchup. They have held opponents to 69.4 points per game this season while the Redhawks are surrendering 78.1 points per game. What makes the Redhawks defense so bad is the fact that their opponents are only averaging 70.3 points per game. When playing at home their defensive scoring average increases to 79 points per game.

Jacksonville State has been a great team to back against the spread when facing a good shooting team. Their underrated defense gives them a lot of value in these situations. They have a 14-1 ATS record against teams making 48 percent or more of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. When the Redhawks defense is not forcing turnovers they have been a good team to fade. SE Missouri State is 9-18 ATS after four straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Troy +

The oddsmakers are not giving Troy enough credit in this matchup against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Trojans may not have a great record against Sun Belt opponents, but that is not because they are not playing in some very close games. Almost two-thirds of Troy's losses this season have come by 10 points or less, and since they are playing for revenge in this game I expect the Trojans to play a close one against the Ragin' Cajuns.

Troy is the better defensive team in this matchup. The Trojans have held opponents to 70.3 points per game this season, which may not seem great at first glance, but that number is below their opponents' offensive scoring average. The Rajin' Cajuns on the other hand have surrendered 74.9 points per game, which is three points per game more than their opponents' offensive scoring average. In the first matchup of the season UL-Lafayette benefited from one of their best shooting performances of the year. It is unlikely they will be able to repeat that feat again today which adds value to on the Trojans.

You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like the Rajin' Cajuns when they are averaging 76 points per game or more and scoring 80 or more points in two straight games, and they are facing a team allowing 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games. This system is 70-37 (65%) against the spread. UL-Lafayette put up 93 points against Little Rock and 85 against Arkansas State in its last two games, and I think that has them coming into this matchup a little overrated.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Arizona -

The Wildcats are an easy call in this matchup against Utah. The Utes soft schedule at home has earned them a reputation they do not deserve. Utah is 16-1 in those games, but they have only hosted one top ranked team this season, and it was a two point loss to Oregon. We now know the Ducks are nowhere near as good as their ranking indicated, but we also know Arizona is every bit as good as its No. 4 in the country ranking.

The Wildcats have the fourth ranked scoring defense in the country. They are surrendering a mere 57.5 points per game this season. That is an impressive feat when you look at some of the high scoring teams they have faced this season. The Wildcats held Duke to a mere 66 points in non-conference play, and they held the nation's No. 11 ranked team in points per game (83.1), UCLA, to 75 points on the Bruin's home court. The last time they played Utah the Wildcats allowed just 56 points.

While the Utes might look like the higher scoring team at first glance, when you dig a little deeper you will find the Wildcats also have an offensive advantage. Sure, Utah is scoring 78.7 points per game, but that has come against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 74.2 points per game. I give the nod to the Wildcats who are averaging 73.1 points against teams with a defensive scoring average of 68.7 points. It is the same story on the defensive end of the court where Arizona is actually allowing less points against higher scoring teams. The disparity in talent between these teams is much larger than the 4.5 point line indicates.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston Celtics +

Not only are the Phoenix Suns playing in a back-to-back situation, they are also coming off an overtime game that was played in the mile high altitude in Denver. The Celtics are an easy call in this matchup getting such a large number. Phoenix has struggled defensively at home this year, and given the tough back-to-back situation they are playing in, I think the Celtics will give the Suns a scare tonight.

The Suns are surrendering 102 points per game at home. Their poor defensive play should allow the Celtics to put a number on the board that makes covering an eight point spread a very easy task to accomplish. Boston will be well prepared for this matchup since it is their first game coming out of the All-Star break. That extra rest will be a big advantage for tonight's game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team has a 13-6 ATS record in the last 19 meetings. The Celtics have an 8-3 ATS record against Pacific division teams, and a 6-2 ATS record when playing with three or more days of rest. The Suns lost three of their last four games prior to the break, and they struggled to squeak past the Nuggets last night. Meanwhile, the Celtics won four of their last six entering the break, and I think they play a close game with the Suns tonight.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

Toronto is playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after playing on the road against Washington last night. Playing on back-to-back nights is hard enough on its own, but facing a solid defense like the Bulls should be even harder to overcome. Chicago caught fire at the right time winning four of their last five games entering the All-Star break, and I like their chances to carry that momentum forward for the second half of the season.

The Bulls may not score a lot of points, but they make up for their lack of offense with one of the best defenses in the league. They have held opponents to a mere 92.3 points per game this season, and over their past five games the Bulls have done even better allowing just 88.2 points per game. Chicago has had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup since this is their first game out of the All-Star break.

You should play on teams like Chicago when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss as a home favorite, and they are extremely well rested playing three or less games in the last 10 days. This system has a 39-15 (72%) record against the spread. The Raptors may have won the last meeting, but Chicago is playing like a completely different team in the New Year, and I like their chances to pick up close win on the road in this matchup.

5* Total No Brainer on Magic/Cavaliers OVER

This matchup features two very poor defensive teams, and two offenses that have the ability to catch fire. The value in this matchup is clearly going to be on the over. Orlando is surrendering 102.3 points per game on the road this season. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 102 points per game overall. Neither of these teams has done a lot of scoring this year, and I think that is the biggest reason for such a low total. That will change tonight since the competition is soft both ways.

For a tired team the first thing to go is usually the defense. The Cavaliers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation. I expect their defense to be even worse than normal for this game. Orlando is also playing in a back-to-back after losing on the road against Milwaukee last night in a game they surrendered 104 points.

The Cavaliers have a history of going over the total against Southeast division teams. The over has a 5-1 record in their last six games against that division, and it is 11-3 in Cleveland's last 14 games against a team with a losing record. For Orlando, the over is 43-26 the last three seasons when they are revenging a road loss to their opponent. With two soft defenses playing in a tough back-to-back situation, I expect to see a lot of points going on the board tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

Syracuse is a team that looks like it is falling victim to the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record. The Orange have come close to blowing their perfect season in four of their last five games. Boston College may not have a great record, but they simply haven't lived up to their potential this season. They have the talent to keep up with the best teams in the country, and that is exactly what I expect to see them do against the Orange in this matchup.

This should be a low scoring game. Syracuse is not a team that scores a lot of points, averaging just 69.4 points per game at home this season. When these teams met last month the Eagles put up 59 points, losing by a mere 10 points. That game was much closer than the final score indicates because the Orange pulled away thanks to some late free throws. While it is likely Syracuse is going to pick up its second win over Boston College, it does not seem likely that it will come by 15 or more points. This line simply overvalues Syracuse, especially with the way the Orange have been playing recently.

You should play against home favorites like Syracuse when they are favored by 10 to 19.5 points and are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss at home as a favorite. This system to fade the home team has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread. It identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Utah State +

I think we are getting a lot of value on the Aggies in this matchup. The last time these teams met Utah State took the Aztecs to overtime, losing by just five points. The change in venue will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game by a double-digit margin. San Diego State has been overrated for most of the season, and while they may have a 12-1 record as the home team, they have a losing record (4-6) against the spread in those games.

Utah State is a dominant rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin this season, and typically do a great job of preventing their opponents from picking up offensive rebounds. In the first meeting of the season the Aggies uncharacteristically lost that battle, and it is unlikely that will take place again. The Aggies are also a very good ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game, and suffered a lopsided defeat in turnover margin in that game. I think both of those areas will be a little more even in this matchup, which will make it extremely difficult for the Aztecs to cover a double-digit number.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like San Diego State when they are coming off a home win over a conference opponent, and facing a team that is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite like Utah State. This system identifies matchups where the home favorite is being overvalued. It has resulted in a 106-62 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Red Raiders picked up a win against an Oklahoma State team that we now know is nowhere near as good as preseason predictions. They also picked up a win over a mediocre Oklahoma team, and played a close game against a very overrated Iowa State team. Their recent performance has earned them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers, and that has created a lot of value on Kansas in today's matchup.

The Jayhawks are clearly the best team in the Big 12, and there is a lot of disparity in talent between them and every other team in the conference. Kansas is averaging 80.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 68.9 points per game. On the defensive end of the court they have surrendered a mere 69.9 points per game against opponents with an offensive scoring average of 75.2 points per game. Texas Tech on the other hand is scoring below its opponents defensive scoring average, and while the defense has been solid, I don't think they will have an answer for all the scoring options on this Jayhawks roster.

The Jayhawks have been a great team to back when coming off a blowout win. They absolutely destroyed TCU in their last outing by picking up a 30 point win. Kansas is 12-4 ATS over the last two seasons following a win by 20 points or more. The Jayhawks are a great foul drawing team, getting to the free throw line for an average of 27 attempts per game. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in home games against teams attempting 25 or more free throws per game after 15 or more games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers should come out of the All-Star break with a strong performance against the 76ers. Cleveland was on the verge of a turnaround going into the break, picking up four consecutive upset wins as an underdog. Now, with plenty of rest, they face one of the leagues worst teams. The 76ers lost eight consecutive games going into the break, and they were playing like a team that has completely given up on the season.

Over the last five games the Cavaliers have averaged 103.2 points per game. That trend should continue tonight against a 76ers defense that is surrendering an average of 110.7 points per game at home. Over Philadelphia's last five games, it surrendered a whopping 115.4 points per game. These teams met last month in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers picked up an 18 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to change the fortunes of the 76ers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the 76ers. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia after six or more consecutive losses, when they are playing in the second half of the season. This system has a 37-13 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Davidson -

The last time these teams met Davidson picked up a 19 point win. With Citadel coming into this matchup having lost 15 consecutive games, it is safe to say they have thrown in the towel on their season. Davidson still has a lot to play for as the Wildcats try to hold onto first place in the Southern Conference.

The Wildcats have a dominating statistical advantage in this matchup. They are averaging 78.9 points per game on the road, which is a full eight points over their opponents defensive scoring average. The Citadel has been horrible defensively, allowing 4.9 points per game more than than their opponents offensive scoring average. In the first meeting of the season between these teams, Citadel had an above average shooting performance and still lost in a blowout. Over their last five games the Bulldogs have shot 39.9 percent from the field, so I don't think they will be able to decrease that margin of loss in today's matchup.

Davidson has been a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-5 ATS in road games, which includes a 6-0 ATS record in road games against conference opponents. When the Bulldogs are unable to force turnovers they are a great team to fade. The Citadel is 8-22 ATS after three straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers. Davidson has been a great ball control team all year, and in the first meeting of the season they had a mere nine turnovers.

4* MAAC Game of the Week on Marist +

These teams are headed in completely opposite directions. Marist has won four of its last five games, while Monmouth has dropped six consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in five of those six. The Hawks have also been horrible in MAAC play, posting a 4-11 record as they sit in ninth place in the conference standings.

Statistically the Red Foxes have several key advantages. First of all, they are a much better defensive team. Marist has surrendered 70.8 points per game to opponents with an offensive scoring average of 72.7 points per game. Monmouth on the other hand is allowing 73.7 points per game against opponents averaging 72.2 points per game. Marist also has a turnover advantage, committing just 13 total turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs when they are playing their third game in a week and have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 286-189 (60%) against the spread. It is a good way to find teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, which appears to be the case with the Red Foxes today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Rice +

Since Raheem Appleby went out Louisiana Tech has not been winning its games in the same dominating fashion they did earlier in the season. The Bulldogs are 1-3 against the spread in the four games that Appleby has missed, so I think there is a lot of value on Rice as such a large underdog in today's matchup. The Owls have won two of their last three games against the spread.

Statistically the Bulldogs certainly have an advantage, but I don't think it is enough to justify a near 20 point line. The Owls defense has surrendered 70.3 points per game this season, which makes them an above average defense in comparison to Louisiana Tech's opponents who have a combined defensive scoring average of 73.5 points per game. The Bulldogs are an average defensive team, allowing just shy of 68 points per game. While they will likely win this game, I don't think they will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bulldogs. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a game where both teams scored 75 points or more and they are playing only their second game in the last eight days. This system has a 150-96 (62%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout on Loyola Marymount +

Gonzaga is nowhere near as good as the team many thought they would be prior to the start of the season. While they have an impressive 22-4 record, they have not played a very difficult schedule this season. What's most alarming about the Bulldogs performance is the fact that they are not dominating weaker opponents like they should be. Gonzaga has won only five of their 13 conference games by a margin larger than 10 points.

The Lions are a much better team than their record indicates. They are averaging 74.3 points per game, and I expect them to put up a respectable number in this matchup against the Bulldogs. The last time these teams met the Lions scored 72 points. Gonzaga shot well above their typical shooting percentage in that game while the Lions shot slightly below average. I don't expect the disparity in shooting percentages to be as large in this second meeting of the season, so there is no reason to believe the Bulldogs will be able to increase their margin of victory by enough points to cover the spread regardless of the venue change.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overreacted based on recent performances. You should play on underdogs that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games when they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system has a 49-20 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver +

The schedule has been anything but easy for the Pioneers this season, and while the records may not indicate it, I think they are the better team in this matchup with IPFW. Denver has won five of its last seven games, which includes two double-digit victories on the road. The Mastodons have lost two of their last three, with that lone win coming by a mere six points against the 9-15 South Dakota Coyotes.

Defenses generally travel well, and that has definitely been the case for Denver this season. They are allowing 63.2 points per game overall, but that number dips down to 62.5 points per game surrendered when playing on the road. The Mastodons defense has been soft, especially at home. They are allowing 72.2 points per game in home games, and their soft defense will prove costly in this matchup against the Pioneers.

The oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue road teams that are revenging a home loss and playing with one or less days of rest. In this situation the road team has a 361-250 (59%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When these teams met last month the Pioneers were a 9.5 point favorite. They have since won five of their last seven games, so I think we are getting a lot of value as an underdog today.

4* Heavy Hitter on Miami Ohio +

Western Michigan is getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. When these teams met last month the game was decided by a single point, and I don't think a change in venue is going to be enough for the Broncos to cover this spread, especially against a RedHawks team that is out for revenge. The Broncos defense has surrendered more points at home than they have on the road this season while the schedule has been pretty soft. That is a good indication that home court advantage will not be a big factor.

The Redhawks come into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 69.7 points per game on the road. That is over a full point below their opponents scoring average on the season. Miami Ohio may not have a great record, but they play smart basketball which has led to a winning record against the spread. The team avoids turnovers, stays out of foul trouble, and they are knocking down over 76 percent of their free throw attempts this season. The RedHawks have a statistical advantage over the Broncos in all three of those categories.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Miami Ohio. You should play on road underdogs when they are revenging a loss against their opponent that came by three points or less and they are coming off a loss by 10 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in an 85-47 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Western Carolina +

The Western Carolina Catamounts are an easy call in this matchup with the Chattanooga Mocs. The Catamounts are coming into this game having won three of their last four games, while the Mocs have lost three of their last four games. The Mocs have not fared well against physical teams. They are 1-8 ATS versus opponents that are called for 21 or more fouls per game.

The biggest advantage the Catamounts have in this matchup is there underrated defense. Against conference opponents Western Carolina has surrendered a mere 68.1 points per game. On the offensive end of the court they have had no problem scoring points averaging 73.6 points per game. The Catamounts are also coming off back-to-back games scoring 80+ points, and they have the luxury of facing a soft Mocs defense that is allowing 75.8 points per game over their last five games.

Western Carolina is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record. The Catamounts have been playing some great basketball recently, but they have not been covering the spread. I think that caused an overreaction by the oddsmakers for today's matchup. Western Carolina is the better team and it will show today.

5* West Coast Conf. Game of the Month on Loyola-Marymount +

This is a lot of points for the Lions to receive in what is a very even matchup. The last time these teams met it was Loyola-Marymount that was the favorite. The Lions may have lost that game, but I think they were a little unlucky. Portland does not have a good defense. The Pilots have surrendered 73.6 points per game this season. In that first meeting the Lions had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night, making a mere 31.8 percent of their attempts. I don't credit that win to a big defensive performance, instead it should be considered an anomaly that is unlikely to take place again.

Loyola-Marymount should have no problem scoring points today. They are averaging 74.7 points per game on the season, making 44.5 percent of their shot attempts. The Lions are a decent rebounding team, and they have been a decent ball control team. If they continue to rebound well and avoid turnovers tonight, there is no reason the Lions cannot leave Portland with a win under their belts. Even with an average performance they should have no problem sticking to within seven points or less.

The oddsmakers have a history of overvaluing the Pilots in certain situations. For instance, Portland is 13-29 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Pilots are also 5-16 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a road underdog. Portland did not have a good road trip, losing two of those three games. The Pilots have now lost three of their last four games, and I like the Lions to come out and give them a scare tonight.

3* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

I like this matchup to easily stay under the posted total. Both of these teams have been solid on defense this season. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 90.7 points per game, while the Nets have held opponents below their scoring averages at 99.7 points per game. I don't expect Brooklyn to have any problem improving on that number tonight since they are up against a Chicago team that only averages 92.3 points per game.

This is the last game before the All-Star break, and both of these teams need a win. I think they will step up their defensive efforts today and that will keep this game under the total. Brooklyn has been playing great defense recently, allowing 94.4 points per game over their last five games. Just like Chicago, the Nets are not a high scoring team. They are averaging 96.3 points per game on the road this year, and they will struggle to match that number tonight since Chicago will be one of the best defensive teams they have seen.

The under is 23-8 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season. The under is also 12-2 when the Bulls are playing at home and the total has been set between 180-189.5 points. In their last seven games against Atlantic division teams the under has a 7-0 record for Chicago. With Both teams struggling to score points this season, and both teams playing great defense right now the under is an easy call in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Dakota +

IPFW is one of the most overrated teams in the Summit League. The Mastodons are nowhere near as good as their 18-8 record would indicate. They are coming off back-to-back losses in their last two games, and I think losing two on the road by double-digits will really knock the wind out of them coming into tonight's matchup with South Dakota.

The Coyotes have put up some decent numbers this season. They are averaging over 70 points per game while shooting 44.5 percent from the field. They are also a great free throw shooting team making 74.4 percent of their attempts. South Dakota has also been an excellent ball control team with 12 turnovers per game, and they avoid getting into foul trouble. The Coyotes record may not reflect their quality numbers, and neither does the line on today's game which makes South Dakota a strong value play.

South Dakota is 13-5 ATS against teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more points per game. They are also 14-4 ATS against teams averaging 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games. They are off to a 6-2 ATS performance against conference opponents this year, which adds to their 17-8 ATS run over the last two seasons. In head-to-head matchups the Coyotes are 4-1 ATS versus IPFW over the last three seasons, including a 2-0 record when playing at Ft Wayne.

4* Vegas Insider on Boston College +

Boston College may not have a great overall record this season, but I still think they are the better team in this matchup with the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has really struggled to get points on the board this season. They are averaging a mere 67.5 points per game which is below their opponents defensive scoring average. Boston College has played a tough schedule, and they have managed to play some very close games with good teams.

The Eagles have covered the spread in four of their last six games. They get to face a Georgia Tech team that is coming off a crushing loss to Virginia in their last outing. The Yellow Jackets were handed an embarrassing 19 point beat down on their home court, and I think that loss will do serious damage to their confidence level. Georgia Tech is also in a bad shooting slump. Over their last two games the Yellow Jackets have shot 34.8 percent and 36.7 percent, respectively.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to fade the Yellow Jackets. You should play against home teams when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts, and are facing a defense that has allowed 45 to 47.5 shooting from its opponents, and they are an average rebounding team that is +/- 3 in rebounding margin against a team that is -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system identifies home teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 38-12 (76%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* NBA First Half Game of the Year on Clippers -

The Portland Trailblazers are falling apart, and I think they are already looking forward to regrouping during the All-Star break. The Blazers have lost five of their last eight games, and they have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games. Portland's defense has always been soft, but they have been saved by an offense averaging close to 108 points per game. They seem to have lost the scoring touch, failing to reach triple digits in five of their last eight games.

The Clippers are coming off impressive back-to-back wins at home. They have had no problem scoring points recently, averaging 114 points per game over their last five games. The Clippers have been dangerously good at home all season, posting a 22-4 record. With Portland struggling like they have been, I just don't see how the Blazers can come into Los Angeles and play a close game against one of the best teams in the league.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Clippers. You should play on a team averaging 102 points per game or more like Los Angeles when they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games, and they are playing a horrible defensive team that is allowing over 102 points per game on the season. This system has a 99-62 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

The Rockets are one of the hottest teams in the league coming into the All-Star break. They have won six consecutive games, covering the spread in five of those six. Houston has been a high scoring team all season, but over their last five games the Rockets have really stepped up their level of play on the offensive end of the court by averaging an impressive 110.6 points pr game. Meanwhile, the Wizards come into this matchup with a defense that is surrendering 101.2 points per game over their last five games.

Washington is playing in a very tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Memphis last night. Houston on the other hand is playing with a day of rest. The Rockets have a long standing history of dominating the Wizards. In head-to-head matchups Houston is 25-8 straight up since 1996, and they are 4-1 over the last three seasons. When playing in Houston the Rockets are 10-6 against the spread since 1996.

This matchup fits into a system hitting a high win percentage when backing the home team. You should play on home teams like Houston after five or more consecutive wins when they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games. This system is 61-27 (69%) against the spread.

3* Blowout on Detroit Pistons -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Cavaliers are a bad team, and they are getting too much credit from the oddsmakers thanks to a three game win streak over a very soft stretch of opponents. Detroit is also riding a three game win streak, which includes an upset win as an underdog over San Antonio in their last game.

I think the Cavaliers will be looking forward to the All-Star break where they can regroup and try to turn their season around. Against division opponents Cleveland has averaged a mere 89.1 points per game. The Cavaliers defense has been horrible on the road this year surrendering 106 points per game. Cleveland will be in for a long night against this Pistons team that is scoring 101.6 points per game at home.

You should play on teams like Detroit that have covered the spread in five of their last six games and have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against an opponent that has won only 25 to 40 percent of their games. This system has an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando Magic +

The Magic are playing well right now as they look for their fourth consecutive win tonight when they face the Memphis Grizzlies. Orlando's recent three game win streak has come against a very tough schedule too. They have wins over Oklahoma City and Indiana during that stretch and they will be playing on two days of rest for today's game.

The Grizzlies are in a tough spot tonight. They are playing the second half of a back-to-back, squeaking by Washington last night and having to head south to play on the road against Orlando tonight. Memphis is really struggling on offense recently, and I think it will cost them against this red hot Magic team. The Grizzlies are averaging 85.4 points per game over their last five games.

You should play against favorites like Memphis when they are allowing 92-98 points per game and coming off three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less, and they are playing against a team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more game in the season. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued, and it has resulted in a 28-7 (80%) record against the spread.

5* Road Dog of the Month on James Madison +

There is a lot of value on James Madison as such a large underdog since they will have Andre Nation back in the lineup. Nation is the leading scorer for the Dukes, averaging 16.6 points per game. He was also the team leader in rebounds with 5.3 per game. With Nation on the court this team should play with a much higher intensity level, and I even think they will have a chance to pull off the upset in this game.

The Dukes have been a solid team defensively this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 67.8 points per game. Delaware on the other hand has surrendered an average of 76 points per game. The Blue Hens have yet to lose a Colonial Conference game, and now signs are pointing to the oddsmakers beginning to overvalue the team. Delaware has lost two of its last three games against the spread, and they have come close to being upset several times in recent weeks.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road teams that average 63 points per game or less when they are playing against a poor defensive team allowing 74-78 points per game, after playing a game where both teams scored 65 or less points. This system is 47-20 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Akron +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this game. Akron is on fire right now having won four of its last five games. They are 8-2 against conference opponents this season, holding those teams to a mere 63.2 points per game.

Western Michigan has struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations recently. The Broncos have lost seven of their last nine games against the spread, and I look for them to lose today's game straight up too. Their defense is nowhere near as good as the Zips' defense, and when you adjust their offensive scoring averages for strength of schedule both of these teams come in averaging similar numbers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Zips. You should play on road teams with a line of three-points or less when they are coming off two consecutive wins by five points or less over a conference rival and they are playing in the month of February. This system has a 58-30 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on George Mason +

The Minutemen have struggled to live up to the absurdly high expectations set by the oddsmakers. They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games, and there is simply no reason UMass should be a double-digit favorite in this game. George Mason has a winning record against the spread when playing on the road, and while it may only be 6-5, this is the third largest point total received in 2014. George Mason covered the spread in its two prior games receiving double-digits.

The last time these teams met UMass squeaked by with a one point win. A change in venue is not enough to justify such a large number considering how well the Patriots matchup with the Minutemen. Both of these teams have similar figures in rebounding margin, turnovers and free throw shooting percentage. They have also put up similar defensive scoring stats this season. While UMass may have an offensive scoring advantage, the fact that George Mason put up 87 points in the first meeting of the season tells me that advantage is not enough to justify this many points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing George Mason. You should play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like the Patriots when they are a good rebounding team giving up less than nine offensive rebounds per game on the season in a February game. This system has a 370-251 (60%) record against the spread. While the Patriots may not stick to within a single point again, I do think they will stick to within a single-digit margin.

4* Western Conference Game of the Week on Utah +

The Jazz are coming off a confidence boosting win over Miami in a game that saw them listed as a 9.5 point underdog. They have had two days to prepare for the Lakers, and I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. The Lakers have lost eight of their last 10 games, and they are showing no signs of life after losing at home to Chicago in their last outing.

The Lakers defense has been a a major issue this season. They have surrendered an average of 105.8 points per game. While the Jazz may not typically be a high scoring team, I don't think they will have any problem scoring points against Los Angeles tonight. Defensively Utah will have a big advantage. Over their last five games the Jazz have surrendered a mere 96.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams with a line of three points or less when they are well rested, playing six or less games in 14 days, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system identifies road teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in an 83-45 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Bobcats UNDER

This total is simply too high, which makes the under a strong value play. The Bobcats may not have a great record, but that has not been because of a lack of defensive talent. They are playing at home, and should easily control the pace of this game. Charlotte has held opponents to 94.6 points per game at home this season, while scoring a mere 92.8 points in those games.

Dallas has been a soft team defensively at times, but that does not hurt us in this matchup tonight. The Bobcats opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game this year, yet they are still averaging well under 95 points per game. Also, the Mavericks have been playing a lot better defensively in recent weeks. Over their past five games Dallas has held its opponents to 95.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when one team (Dallas) has beaten the spread by 36 points or more in their last five games, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing against a team with a losing record. Over the last five seasons the under is 54-34 (61%) in this situation.

3* Main Event on Notre Dame -

This matchup has a lot of blowout potential for Notre Dame. Clemson is a defense oriented team, but that defense has struggled on the road at times this season. The only thing consistent about the Tigers is an offense that has been consistently bad. Clemson comes into this matchup averaging a mere 60.4 points per game on the road, while Notre Dame has put up an impressive 76.1 points per game at home.

Clemson has lost three of its last four road games with a 21.6 point average margin of defeat in those games three games. The Tigers offense is really struggling right now. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 49.2 points per game. Clemson is 0-7 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in five consecutive games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Irish. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Notre Dame when they are making 45 to 47.5 percent of their shot attempts and are playing against a team allowing opponents to make 40 percent or less of their shot attempts, in a game with two good ball handling teams committing 14.5 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games. This system has a 69-37 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It identifies teams that are being undervalued because of their opponents defensive scoring numbers.

4* Blowout of the Week on Houston -

Minnesota is suffering from several key injuries right now, and it is showing in their performance on the court. The Wolves have lost three consecutive games coming into tonight's matchup with the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, Houston comes into this matchup riding a five game win streak. After playing a much closer game than they should have against Milwaukee, I look for the Rockets to play a complete game today.

The injury issues for Minnesota have had a huge impact on their already soft defense. The Wolves are surrendering 108 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them dearly against a high scoring team like Houston. The Rockets average 104.1 points per game on the road this season, and they are averaging 108.6 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Wolves. You should fade a home team like Minnesota when they are an extremely tired team that is playing its fifth game in the last seven days. This system has a 143-85 (63%) record against the spread. This is Houston's third game in the past seven days, and since they are well rested and facing a battered Minnesota lineup I like the Rockets to win this game in a blowout.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky +

I like the Hilltoppers to pull off the upset in this game, but we will still take the points. Western Kentucky is 8-2 in conference play, and they will have several key matchup advantages against Arkansas State. The Hilltoppers are riding a six game win streak, with three of those wins coming on the road. The last time these teams met Western Kentucky picked up a five point win. That scare ensures the Hilltoppers do not look past the Red Wolves today.

The biggest advantage Western Kentucky has in this matchup is its defense. The Hilltoppers opponents have an offensive scoring average of 71.9 points per game, yet Western Kentucky has allowed a mere 66.7 points per game overall and 65.9 points per game when playing on the road. They should have no problem putting up another big number on the scoreboard facing a Red Wolves defense that is surrendering 72.7 points per game. The Hilltoppers are also +5 in rebounding margin to -2 from Arkansas State.

Western Kentucky is 33-16 ATS in road games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games after 15 or more games. The Red Wolves come into this matchup with a 10-24 ATS record against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game after 15 or more games. With the Red Wolves playing with eight days off I think they come out flat. I like the Hilltoppers to take an early lead and never look back.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -

Brooklyn is an easy call at home when they host a Pelicans team that is 9-15 on the road this season. The Nets have really turned their season around since the New Year, and I don't think they will have any problem covering such a small number against New Orleans today. The Nets are 8-2 at home in 2014.

The Nets should easily shut down the Pelicans offense today. Over their last five games the Pelicans have averaged a mere 92.6 points per game. Brooklyn on the other hand is coming into this matchup averaging 99.4 points per game over their last five games. The Pelicans have a history of struggling against good three point shooting teams. They are 17-32 against the spread when facing a team making 36 percent or more of their attempts. Brooklyn is shooting just over 37 percent from beyond the arch this season.

The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning record at home. Brooklyn is coming into this game with a 7-1 ATS record in their last eight games when playing on one day of rest. The Nets have also dominated the head-to-head series between these teams with a 6-2 ATS record in the last eight meetings. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six games when the Nets are playing at home.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The Golden Grizzlies may not have a great record this season, but they are certainly every bit as good as Valparaiso. Oakland has played an incredibly difficult schedule, and I think that has them underrated coming into the second game of the season against the Crusaders. When these teams met last month it was Oakland that walked away with a five point win. A change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Valparaiso to cover this spread.

The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents this season, including one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. Their schedule has been tough, which is why their 74.1 point per game scoring average means a lot more than the 75.3 points per game the Crusaders are averaging. The biggest advantage Oakland has in this game is the fact that they are such a good ball control team. The Golden Grizzlies average 11 turnovers per game to 15 turnovers per game from Valparaiso.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Crusaders. You should play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Valparaiso when they are coming off a home loss by three points or less, and they are trying to revenge a same season loss where their opponent scored 75 points or more. This system has a 31-9 (78%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Nevada +

It took a last second three-point shot for San Diego State to get past Boise State in the Aztec's last outing. I think San Diego State is showing signs of regression on defense. They gave up 51 percent shooting to the Broncos, and they have allowed over 50 percent shooting in two of their last three games.

Nevada has been a great team to back on the road this season. They have an 8-3 record against the spread in road games while San Diego State comes into this game with a 3-5 ATS record at home. The oddsmakers have once again overvalued the Aztecs, and I look for the Wolf Pack to give them a scare today. Nevada averages 76 points per game on the road against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 69.9 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade San Diego State. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when coming off 10 or more consecutive wins. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has a 164-115 (59%) record over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Long Beach St -

The Long Beach State 49ers are coming into this matchup having won four of their last five games. They have covered the spread in all five of those contests. In fact, the 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, with both of those losses coming by a mere half point.

UC-Riverside has lost eight of its last 12 games. They are not a high scoring team, and I don't see them keeping pace with Long Beach State in this game. The Highlanders are averaging a mere 68.1 points per game against opponents with a defensive scoring average of 72 points per game. Long Beach State is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents, and they have held those teams to a mere 63.5 points per game.

Long Beach State is 35-19 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These two may have similar overall records, but the 49ers are clearly the better team. They played a very difficult non-conference schedule, but they have shown just how talented they are during conference play. The Highlanders have a 3-5 record against conference opponents, and they have hovered around .500 when playing at home this year. A quality team like Long Beach should have no problem picking up a big road win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Portland Blazers -

We are getting a lot of value with Portland today thanks to a less than impressive run recently. However, when you look at Portland's schedule during those games it is easy to see why they have been hovering around .500 over their last eight games. They took the Indiana Pacers to overtime in their last outing, and I think facing a soft defense like Minnesota's will be a welcome site for Portland.

Minnesota is surrendering 101.6 points per game this season. That has come against opponents averaging 100.9 points per game. In today's matchup they host a Portland team that is averaging 107.6 points per game on the road. The Trailblazers have averaged 109.8 points per game against division opponents, and I don't think the Timberwolves will be able to slow them down today.

You should play against home teams like Minnesota when they are playing on back-to-back days and trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more in the last meeting. The last time these teams met the Blazers put up 115 points and walked away with a double-digit win. This system has a 95-47 (67%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington State +

Utah is getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers today. While the Utes have played well at home this year, they will find it difficult to beat this underrated Washington State team by a double-digit margin. Washington is a solid defensive team allowing 65.3 points per game to opponents whose offensive scoring average is 72.5 points per game.

Utah is coming off a nine point win over Washington in their last outing. The Utes shot 60 percent from the field in that game, and I don't think they are capable of repeating that feat against this stingy Cougars defense. With the way these teams matchup this should be a very close game. Washington State is a quality rebounding team, and they have been a great ball control team. They should hold their own on the boards and avoid turnovers today, and that will ensure they keep this game within a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs in a game involving two teams making 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games when that road dog is coming off a game making 13 or more three point shots. This system is 32-6 (84%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Blowout on Samford -

The records may not indicate it, but Samford is the better team in this matchup. The Bulldogs have an impressive 8-3 record at home, while the Chattanooga Mocs have struggled on the road at 5-9. The Mocs have lost their last two road games and that trend should carry over into today's game.

The biggest problem for Chattanooga has been on the defensive end of the court. When playing on the road they are surrendering 79.9 points per game. Don't let the Moc's 9-1 Southern Conference record intimidate you because this is a team that has benefited from a soft conference schedule this season. Samford will have the revenge factor on their side for this game. The Bulldogs lost on the road the last time these teams met, and the change in venue should easily swing the outcome of this game in their favor.

While college basketball rest profiles are not generally a factor to be concerned about because of their limited number of games, it is worth noting that Samford has a 12-2 ATS record over the last two seasons when playing with one or less days of rest. The Bulldogs are also 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They have a 20-7 ATS record in all games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

5* CBB Game of the Year on Tulsa -

This matchup should be a blowout win for the Golden Hurricane. Rice has simply fallen apart in C-USA play this year, and they are severely outmatched by Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes are averaging 73.4 points per game this season, and they should have no problem putting up a big number against the Owls soft defense. Rice has surrendered 72.9 points per game against conference opponents, and 73.8 points per game over their last five games.

The advantages for Tulsa don't end in scoring. They have a significant rebounding advantage too. Rice comes into this matchup averaging 33 rebounds per game with only six coming on the offensive glass. They are -4 in rebounding margin this season. The Owls are also slightly more turnover prone than the Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa has been a great ball control team averaging just 11 turnovers per game.

You should play on road favorites like Tulsa when they are making 42.5 to 45 percent of their shot attempts and are facing a poor shooting team making 40 to 42.5 percent of their attempts after 15 or more games, and that road team is coming off a poor three point shooting performance making 20 percent or less of their attempts. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 55-21 (72%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas -

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now. They have won eight of their last nine games, and have the luxury of home court advantage for this game. Kansas has one of the Big 12's best home court advantages. They are 9-1 at Allen Fieldhouse this season, averaging 82.6 points per game.

I expect Kansas to score at-will against this soft West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers are surrendering 71.4 points per game this season. On the other end of the court West Virginia will struggle to find the basket against this underrated Jayhawks defense. Kansas has surrendered 68.2 points per game at home this season, and that has come against opponents whose scoring average is 75.9 points per game.

The Kansas Jayhawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against Big 12 opponents. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Mountaineers are coming into this matchup having surrendered 76.9 points per game against conference opponents, and they are simply outmatched by the Jayhawks in several of the key statistical categories. Kansas has a rebounding, shooting and defensive edge, and they should win this game in a blowout.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Miami Ohio +

This is too many points for the Redhawks to be receiving in a matchup that features two evenly matched teams. The Ohio Bobcats are coming off an embarrassing loss to Western Michigan in their last outing. They have struggled to live up to oddsmakers expectations, losing three of their last five games against the spread.

The Redhawks have a solid defense, and they should give Ohio a lot of trouble in this game. They have held opponents to 68.7 points per game when playing on the road. They are averaging eight steals per game, and committing a mere 13 turnovers per game. The Redhawks have put up very similar numbers to the Bobcats when playing conference opponents, and that tells me these teams are a lot more even than this line would indicate.

You should play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against a conference rival, and they are facing an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 points or more. This system identifies home teams that the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 47-20 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz are a well rested team coming into this matchup. They have had three days to prepare for their road matchup with the Mavericks, and that should easily allow them to keep this game within a single digit margin. Utah may not have a great record straight up when playing on the road, but they have hovered around .500 against the spread. That gives them a better ATS record than the Mavericks who are at 11-14 ATS when playing at home.

The Jazz have a bad reputation for being a soft defense, but I would argue they are a team that is a lot better than they get credit for. They have held opponents to 100.9 points per game, which is well below their opponents offensive scoring average that is just shy of 102 points per game. This will be the Mavericks fifth game in the last 10 days. With rest profiles heavily in favor of the Jazz I don't see Dallas winning this game in the blowout the oddsmakers expect.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Mavericks. You should fade home favorites like Dallas when they are making 45.5 to 47.5 percent of their shot attempts against a team allowing a shot percentage of 45.5 to 47.5 percent after 42 games, when that home team is coming off two straight games making over 50 percent of their shot attempts. This system identifies teams being overvalued by the oddsmakers because of their recent shooting performance that has proved unsustainable over an extended number of games. The system has a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread.

4* Total Dominator on Blazers/Pacers UNDER

The total on this game is set way too high. The Indiana Pacers have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and I think that will allow them to control the pace of this game. The Pacers defense has been unbelievably hard to score on this year, and they are surrendering a mere 84.8 points per game when playing at home. On the offensive end of the court the Pacers are not a high scoring team. They haven't needed to average triple digits to win games, which is a big reason the under is 17-8 when playing in Indianapolis.

Portland has really been struggling recently. Over the Trailblazers' last five games they have averaged a mere 91.8 points per game. They have also gone under the total in seven of their last eight games. The normally soft Portland defense has stepped up during that five game stretch. They are holding opponents to 98.8 points per game which is five points under their defensive scoring average on the season. With the offense struggling, and the defense playing so well, the under becomes a very strong value play.

This matchup fits into a system indicating this should be a low scoring game. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing four or less games in the last 10 games and they have won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a winning record. The under is 147-85 (63%) in this situation.

5* Ivy League Game of the Month on Yale -

The Yale Bulldogs are the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last five games, and I see no reason why they can't pick up a road win over Dartmouth tonight. Statistically these teams are fairly even, but I think it is the Bulldogs that have the advantage tonight. They are facing a Big Green team that will be without one of its best players.

Gabas Maldunas is out with a season ending ACL injury. The Big Green have played well without their leading scorer in their past two games, but the competition has not been that tough. I think Dartmouth's two wins in its last two games has the oddsmakers over adjusting tonight. Yale has one of the best conference records in the Ivy League, and with Maldunas gone they should have no problem dominating this game. Maldunas was not only Dartmouth's leading scorer, we was also the team's leader in rebounds per game so his production is going to be missed.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulldogs. You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Yale when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games, but they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team and it has resulted in a 43-20 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Long Beach St +

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 7-4 ATS record in road games, and I like their chances to pick up another ATS win in this game. I also think there is also a lot of potential for the 49ers to pull off the upset tonight.

The 49ers are riding a four game win streak coming into this matchup. They have won both of their road games straight up as an underdog during that stretch. The Anteaters on the other hand are trying to find a way to stop the bleeding after losing two of their last three games. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, and they even have a straight up loss at home as a six point favorite during that stretch.

This is a revenge game for the 49ers after losing by two-points on their home court earlier this season. A change in venue should only motivate Long Beach State as they try to give the Anteaters the home loss that was given to them in the first meeting of the season. The 49ers have been playing incredibly well in the second half of the season winning five of their last six games, and that is a trend that should continue against UC-Irvine tonight.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

Washington should have no problem keeping this game close with Utah. The Huskies have been playing well recently winning two of their last three games. Utah on the other hand has lost three consecutive games. These teams have put up very similar numbers in the key statistical categories, and their overall records are also very similar. To favor the Utes by a near double-digit margin is severely underestimating the talent level of this Huskies team.

Both of these teams are averaging similar scoring numbers, but I think it is Washington that actually has the edge. The Huskies opponents have a defensive scoring average of 68.8 points per game, yet Washington has put up an average of 76 points per game. Utah on the other hand has faced opponents whose defensive scoring average is 74.4 points per game, and the Utes only average 79.2 points per game.

The Huskies have a long history of playing well against winning teams. They are 55-33 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games. Lorenzo Romar is great at preparing his team for a high scoring opponent. As the head coach of Washington he has a 20-8 record against the spread when facing a team scoring 77 points or more after 15 or more games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP -

This game has blowout written all over it. UTEP is clearly a much better team than East Carolina. The Miners come into this matchup with a 16-6 record this season, and a 6-1 record against C-USA opponents. East Carolina on the other hand has fallen apart recently, dropping to 12-10 overall and 1-6 against conference opponents.

The Miners are riding a six game win streak, and nothing in this matchup indicates that run will be ending today. They have the luxury of facing a Pirates defense that has surrendered almost 73 points per game. The Pirates are only one game above .500 when playing at home, and UTEP will easily be one of the best teams they have faced on their home court this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Miners. You should play on favorites like UTEP when they average 67-74 points per game and are coming off three straight wins by 10 points or more, when they are facing an average defense allowing 67-74 points per game. This system is 240-157 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Tulsa +

Louisiana Tech has been playing some very mediocre basketball without Raheem Appleby in the lineup. I think that puts the value on Tulsa receiving near double-digits in this matchup. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 74 points per game this season, and they have the luxury of facing a Bulldogs team that has surrendered 75.6 points per game over their last five games.

Tulsa has a very underrated defense. They may not look great on paper, but when you look at their difficult schedule its easy to see why the Golden Hurricane are surrendering 72 points per game. That number is still well below their opponents scoring averages on the season. Tulsa has also been a great ball control team averaging 11 turnovers per game. They should compete on the boards with the Bulldogs so keeping this game within single-digits should be an easy task to accomplish.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Bulldogs. You should fade home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Louisiana Tech when they average over 76 points per game and are coming off two or more games with a combined score of 155 points or more, when they are facing an opponent that has held opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 51-26 (66%) against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Spurs/Nets UNDER

This game should play out to be a defensive battle. A big reason for the Nets success in the New Year has been outstanding defensive play. They suffered a three game stretch of poor defense a week ago, but I like the Nets to get back to playing solid defense in this matchup with the Spurs. San Antonio will be without Duncan and Parker tonight, and that will take a big hit out of the Spurs offensive production.

On the defensive end of the court San Antonio will be fine. They have played without there stars before and still manage to put up solid defensive numbers. San Antonio is holding opponents to a mere 96.3 points per game on the road this season, and that has come against much better scoring teams than the Nets. Brooklyn averages 97.5 points per game overall, and I think they will struggle to match that number in this game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when one of the teams (San Antonio) is coming off two or more consecutive overs, and their opponent (Brooklyn) is coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a history of setting the total to high, and the under has delivered a 216-144 (60%) record over the last five seasons.

5*

3* Total Annihilator on Kings/Raptors UNDER

This is a lot of points for two teams that have been trending towards the under recently. The Raptors have gone under the total in three of their last four games, while the Kings have gone under in four consecutive games. Both teams are playing great defense right now, and nothing in this matchup indicates that will be changing today.

Over their last five games the Raptors have held opponents to 92.2 points per game. They have been a solid defensive team all season allowing an average of just 95.2 points per game on the road. The Kings may have a decent scoring average at home, but that has come against opponents who are surrendering over 100 points per game on the season. On the defensive end of the court Sacramento has allowed just 95.4 points per game over its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. When the total is between 200 to 209.5 points in a non-conference matchup and one of the teams (Sacramento) went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game the under has a 54-25 (68%) record over the last five seasons. I expect this matchup to be a defensive battle, and it should stay comfortably under the posted total.

5* Western Conference Blowout of the Month on Rockets -

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a tough back-to-back situation after losing at home last night to the Chicago Bulls. Now they are traveling to Houston where they will face a Rockets team that is looking for its fourth consecutive win. Houston is playing on three days of rest, so they should be well prepared to face the Suns.

The Rockets have been a very dangerous team on their home court. They have a 20-7 record, and are averaging 105.7 points per game for their fans. They have the luxury of facing a very soft defense in this matchup. The Suns are allowing 101.3 points per game this season, and playing in a back-to-back situation against an outstanding offensive team like Houston makes this matchup scream blowout.

This game fits into a very profitable system backing the Rockets. You should play on home teams like Houston when they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game, and they are facing an average pressure defense that has forced 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has a 97-60 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Pelicans -

The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a tough home loss to the Indiana Pacers last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation like this should prove to be too much for the Hawks to overcome against a New Orleans team that has won four of its last six games. The Pelicans are playing some great basketball right now, especially on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games they have held opponents to a mere 90 points per game.

New Orleans is averaging 100.2 points per game at home. They should have no problem scoring points against one of the Eastern Conference's softest defenses. The Hawks are allowing 104.7 points per game on the road this season. On the offensive end of the court, Atlanta is coming off an 85 point performance last night, and things will not get an easier today against this red hot Pelicans defense.

The oddsmakers have a history of undervaluing the Pelicans when they are coming off a loss. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up loss, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Hawks have a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight games when playing in the second leg of a back-to-back situation.

4* No Brainer on Wright State -

Both of these teams come into this matchup with .500 records in Horizon League play, but the value in this matchup is on the home team laying the points. Wright State is a much better team than Youngstown State, and it will show in this game. The Raiders have played a comparable schedule to the Penguins, but statistically they look dominant in comparison to Youngstown.

On the defensive end of the court Wright State has surrendered a mere 54.7 points per game at home. That number is not far off their 61.6 points per game allowed overall this season. The Penguins defense on the other hand has been shaky all season. They are allowing 73 points per game overall and 79.5 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only 69.7 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Raiders. You should play against underdogs like Youngstown State when they are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road cover losing straight up as an underdog. This system has an 87-50 (64%) record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

This game has upset written all over it. We will take the points with the Explorers on the road, but I would not be surprised to see La Salle come out on top in this game. They are facing a UMass team that has lost three of its last five games, and I expect the Minutemen to underwhelm at home in a matchup sandwiched between two tough road games.

UMass opened the season winning 10 consecutive games. They dropped a close matchup with Florida State before riding a six game win streak. That improbable run had the Minutemen coming into the heart of Atlantic 10 play as one of the country's most overrated teams. Reality has settled in with UMass losing three of its last four games, yet the oddsmakers have continued to overvalue Minutemen in this matchup. They have a 2-8-1 ATS record in their last 11 games.

You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like La Salle when both teams are holding opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games, and the road underdog has scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. The slow starts from the Explorers have La Salle underrated in this matchup. This system has a 70-30 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

This is too many points for a quality team like Boston College to receive in a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle. The Eagles have played some of the best teams in the ACC and have yet to lose a game by a margin larger than 11 points. Virginia is a defense first team, and its unlikely they will score enough points to cover such a large spread in this matchup.

Boston College is a much better team than its 6-15 record would indicate. The Eagles are averaging 70 points per game this season while Virginia comes into this matchup averaging a mere 65.2 points per game at home. Boston College has covered the spread in three of its last four games, and their average margin of loss in ACC play is a mere seven points. In their two games against ranked opponents the Eagles have stayed within 10 points or less.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Boston College when they are coming off a game where they covered the spread but lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two or more consecutive road wins. This system identifies teams that are undervalued and facing an opponent playing in a letdown situation. The system has cashed in a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Hawks +

The Indiana Pacers are playing in a very tough spot tonight, making the Atlanta Hawks an easy call in this game. The Pacers are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Orlando yesterday. This will be Indiana's fourth game in the last six days, and I think traveling from Indianapolis to Atlanta will prove to be too much.

The Hawks are a solid 16-6 when playing at home. They have also been a great team to back against the spread in those games posting a 15-7 record. Eight of the Pacers 10 losses have come on the road this season, and facing this well rested Atlanta team puts them in a dangerous situation that could result in their 11th loss of the season. Indiana has continuously been overvalued by the oddsmakers, and that has resulted in five ATS losses in their last seven games.

The Hawks play well against teams that rely on their three point shooting. They are 13-5 ATS in home games this season when facing a team that attempts 18 or more three-point shots per game. Atlanta is also 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. The Pacers defense has shown signs of struggle recently thanks to their difficult schedule. Over their last five games Indiana has allowed over five points per game more than its defensive scoring average for the season. The Hawks are a very good team that averages 103.1 points per game, and that should prove to be too much for Indiana to handle tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on James Madison +

The Dukes have a good chance to pull off an upset against Towson, and listing them as such a large underdog is completely undervaluing this team. Towson State has lost three of its last four games against the spread, and that is a trend that will continue today against James Madison. The Dukes have won two of their last three games, and the loss during that three game stretch came by a mere two points against a very talented William & Mary team.

The Dukes are playing some solid defense right now. Over their last five games they have held opponents to 63.4 points per game. Towson State comes into this matchup surrendering an average of 68 points per game this season. In head-to-head history between these teams James Madison is 3-1 straight up the last three seasons. This is a Colonial Athletic rivalry game that has a history of going down to the wire. There is no reason to expect a different outcome this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home teams like Towson State that make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three-point shots on the season and are coming off a shooting performance greater than 55 percent from the field, when they are facing a team making less than 32 percent of their three-point shots. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers, and these teams typically show some regression in shooting percentage. The system has a 57-31 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Kings UNDER

This matchup sets up perfectly for a play on the under. The Kings are coming into this game having given up 106.4 points per game over their last five games. Sacramento has been struggling defensively, and that has forced the oddsmakers to set this total higher than it should be. The Kings are facing a horrible Bulls offense, and I just don't see their defensive woes continuing in this matchup with Chicago.

The Bulls may not be a great team on offense, but they have one of the league's best defenses. Chicago has surrendered 92.7 points per game this season. Their defensive scoring average is a full eight points below the average opponent Sacramento has faced this season. The Kings offense has been putting up below average numbers since losing DeMarcus Cousins to an ankle injury, and with his status doubtful today I expect them to continue struggling on offense.

The Bulls have gone under the total in five of their last six games while the Kings have stayed under the total in three consecutive games. There are too many variables indicating this will be a low scoring game. Both teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, Chicago is playing great defense, the Kings are struggling to score without Cousins and the list goes on and on. Take the under because this one will be low scoring.

4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER

This matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Spurs defense has been solid on the road, holding opponents to a mere 95.3 points per game. They are not a team that has been putting up big offensive numbers recently either. San Antonio is averaging just 95.4 points per game over their last five games.

The Pelicans come into this matchup with a very underrated defense. They have held opponents to 98.7 points per game when playing on the road, but over their last five games they have surrendered just 89.8 points per game. Just like the Spurs, New Orleans has been in a bit of a scoring slump. They have scored an average of 93.6 points over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system indicating this game will stay below the total. You should play the under in a game involving two good three point shooting teams that make 36.5 percent or more of their attempts, in a matchup involving two average rebounding teams that have a +3 to -3 rebounding margin on the season. This system is 270-178 (60%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The system points out the fact that the oddsmakers tend to set the total far too high for games with good three-point shooting teams, not taking into account how well the teams have played defensively.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Wizards OVER

The Portland Trailblazers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league this season. They are averaging 108.3 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that number increases to 108.7 points per game. They are also a very soft defensive team that has allowed 105.1 points per game on the road. Their high scoring and poor defensive play are a big reason the over is such an easy call in this matchup with the Wizards.

Washington comes into this matchup averaging just over 100 points per game at home. I think they have a lot of potential to exceed there scoring average since they will be facing a soft defense in this game. Portland is allowing 103.4 points per game overall against opponents whose scoring average is 100.8 points per game. When the Trailblazers are playing on the road that number gets even worse.

The over is 20-6 in Portland's road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. The over is also 13-3 in Washington's home games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more points per game. These two angles combined for a 33-9 (79%) record in favor of the over.

4* Colonial Game of the Week on Northeastern +

These teams have a history of playing some very close games. In fact, four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams have been decided by four points or less. While there records may not indicate it, these teams are actually much more evenly matched than they appear. Delaware's defense has been horrible this season, and I expect them to struggle against a rivalry opponent like Northeastern.

The majority of Delaware's conference games have been close. The last time these teams met the Fightin' Blue Hens picked up a mere four point victory. It took 56 percent shooting from the field for Delaware to win that game, and I don't think they will repeat that feat in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Northeastern had a strong rebounding advantage in that game, and they only had four turnovers which is to be expected against the soft Delaware defense.

The Huskies have been a great team to back from the road underdog spot posting an 11-3 ATS record over the last two seasons. They are 12-3 ATS when playing on the road against against a conference opponent. Delaware is getting way too much credit from the oddsmakers, and I think there is a good chance their horrible defensive play will cost the Blue Hens this game.

5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Oakland +

This is a revenge game for the Oakland Golden Grizzlies after losing to the Milwaukee Panthers earlier this month. Oakland is an easy call in this rematch since they dominated the offensive glass and turnover margin in that first meeting of the season. The Panthers had 17 turnovers in that first game to just nine from Oakland. The Grizzlies also suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, and it seems unlikely that will take place again.

The Golden Grizzlies are averaging 74 points per game this season. If not for shooting 32 percent from the field in the first meeting of the season I think the Grizzlies were more than capable of putting up over 80 points on this soft Panthers defense. They had 68 shot attempts in that game to just 54 from Milwaukee. The Panthers have allowed an average of 73.1 points per game at home so I don't think they are getting a lot of benefit from home court advantage.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on an underdog like Oakland when it is revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against an opponent, when that opponent is coming off an upset win as an underdog over a conference rival in their previous game. This system has cashed in a 67-33 (67%) record against the spread.

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Portland Trailblazers -

The Toronto Raptors are playing in a very tough spot today. Last night they were on the road against Denver, and now they have to turn around and head to Portland to play the Trailblazers in the second game of a back-to-back. Portland is a very good team when playing at home posting an 18-5 record, so I like the Trailblazers to pick up an easy win over the Raptors.

Portland has several key advantages in this game. They are an outstanding scoring team averaging 108.4 points per game. Toronto on the other hand comes into this matchup averaging a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. The Raptors are -4 in rebounding margin on the road this season, while Portland has a +5 figure in rebounding margin when playing at home. The Trailblazers have also dominated head-to-head matchups with Toronto over the last three seasons. They are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in the last four meetings between these teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Trailblazers. You should play on a team like Portland when they are a 3.5 to 9.5 point home favorite, and they are playing in a game involving two teams shooting 43.5 to 45.5 percent after 42 or more games, and they are +3 to +5 in rebounding margin against a team that is -3 to +3 in rebounding margin on the season. This system has a 72-36 (67%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -

We are getting a lot of value on Miami thanks to a four game run at home from the New York Knicks. None of those four wins have come against decent competition, so I don't think the Knicks have done anything special by winning at home against four bad teams. The competition gets a lot tougher tonight with the defending champions in town.

The Miami Heat are coming off two days of rest so I like their chance to have a strong showing on the road today. The Knicks are 11-15 at home this season and 9-17 against the spread in those games. They don't get a lot of benefit from home court advantage, and a well rested team like Miami should have no problem coming to town and picking up a big win. The Knicks are also 7-16 ATS as an underdog this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Miami Heat. You should play on a team that is revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite when they are coming off a home loss. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it is 121-73 (62.4%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Colorado State +

I think listing the Rams as a double-digit underdog is grossly under estimating the talent of this team. The Rams are averaging 75 points per game this season. They have put up comparable numbers to San Diego State in both rebounding margin and turnovers. The last time these teams met the Rams managed to stick within 10 points, and I don't think the change in venue will be enough for the Aztecs to increase their margin of victory.

The Rams biggest advantage in this matchup is their free-throw shooting ability. They average 29 attempts from the free throw line, and they have made just shy of 73 percent of those attempts. San Diego State on the other hand is making just 63.4 percent of their attempts from the line. The Aztecs rely heavily on their ability to force turnovers in order to win games, but Colorado State is a great ball control team averaging just nine turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the Rams. You should take road underdogs of 10 points or more like Colorado State when they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season, and they are revenging a home loss against a team with a winning record. This system has a 105-58 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Nevada -

Air Force is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West conference, and I expect them to lose in a blowout on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack have a 6-2 record against conference opponents and a 7-1 record against the spread in those games. They have been playing incredibly well lately and should have no problem putting a big number on the scoreboard against this soft Falcons defense.

Nevada is averaging 74.1 points per game. They are a very efficient team averaging just 11 turnovers per game. The Falcons come into this matchup averaging 14 turnovers per game. Air Force is the 294th ranked team in the country for rebounds per game. Nevada should have no problem getting enough extra shot attempts to win this game by a double-digit margin thanks to the better turnover and rebounding margins.

Nevada is 8-0 ATS this season when facing a poor pressure defense that is forcing 12 or less turnovers per game. They are 9-0 ATS against teams who average six or less steals per game. The Falcons are coming off a double-digit loss against Boise State so their confidence will be low in this matchup. They are 2-5 on the road and 3-5 against conference opponents this season. Nevada is the better team, and with home court advantage they should have no problem winning this game by a double-digit margin.

5* Colonial Game of the Month on Drexel +

I don't put a lot of stock in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Drexel had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in that game. The Dragons dominated Towson in shot attempts and rebounds, but shooting 31.9 percent from the field took away any chance they had to win that game. Its very unlikely that will take place again, so I think we are getting a lot of value with the better team playing as an underdog in this second meeting of the season.

Drexel has been a great team to back on the road this year with an 8-4 ATS record. I don't think Towson is as good as their 10-1 home record would indicate. The Tigers have played an incredibly soft schedule this season, and it has artificially inflated their offensive and defensive statistics. Drexel on the other hand has played a tough schedule. The Dragons opponents average 72.2 points per game, yet Drexel has surrendered just 69.6 points per game when playing on the road.

Drexel is 33-15 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent. Towson on the other hand comes into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 home games against a team that has a winning record on the road. Drexel is a much better team than they are getting credit for. They had an extra 25 shot attempts over Towson State in the first meeting of the season, so even if they only slightly improve their shooting percentage in this matchup the Dragons should have no problem picking up a win.

3* No Doubt Rout on Pacific +

The Pacific Tigers should have a good opportunity to pull off a road upset in this matchup with San Diego. The Toreros have played in a lot of very close games this season. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less, and they are facing a Tigers team that is much better than they are getting credit for. Pacific is averaging 75.1 points per game this season which makes them one of the better scoring teams San Diego has faced.

The Toreros are a poor scoring team. Their opponents have surrendered an average of 73.1 points per game, yet San Diego is scoring a mere 67.5 points per game this season. I think the Toreros are playing in a letdown spot after pulling off an upset win as an underdog in their last outing. San Diego is 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons. They are also 0-6 ATS after a win by 15 points or more.

San Diego may not surrender a lot of points, but I credit that to their soft schedule rather than solid defensive play. The Toreros do not force a lot of turnovers and they are averaging just six steals per game. Pacific is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against opponents who average six of less steals per game on the season. The Tigers have played a much stronger schedule than San Diego, yet these teams have comparable records. The value in this matchup is on Pacific plus the points.

4* ACC Game of the Week on Maryland -

Virginia Tech is the worst team in the ACC and I expect the Terrapins to hand them their eighth conference loss of the season. Virginia Tech has a 1-7 record against conference opponents this season, and they are 2-6 ATS in those games. Their average margin of defeat is just shy of 11 points per game. The Hokies are showing no signs of life coming off back-to-back losses by 20 points or more.

The Terrapins have been victim to an incredibly difficult schedule, but they have still managed to post a 4-4 record against ACC opponents. They are coming off a big win over Miami in their last outing, and managed to stay within four points of No. 20 ranked Pittsburgh in the game prior. Maryland has a +5 figure in rebounding margin, and they have a strong head-to-head history against Virginia tech. The Terrapins are a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last three meetings with the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Maryland on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games after 15 or more games. The Hokies have lost six of their eight conference games by six or more points, and that is a trend I expect to see continue in this matchup.

3* Bailout Blowout on Utah Jazz +

The Warriors are 4-6 in their last 10 games and none of those wins have come consecutively. They are coming off a big win over the Clippers last night, and they are playing in a back-to-back situation when they face the Jazz this evening. After a big win over a division rival I think the Warriors are playing in a letdown spot tonight. Golden State has played very sloppy basketball on the road averaging 17 turnovers per game, and they are facing a Utah team that is coming off three days of rest.

The Jazz are playing well right now picking up back-to-back wins in their last two games. These teams met earlier this season in Salt Lake City with the Warriors picking up the win. Golden State has not won multiple regular season games in Utah in the same season since the 1980-81 campaign. The Jazz have covered the spread in three of their last four meetings against Golden State, and I see no reason why that trend won't continue for today's game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Utah. You should play on home underdogs like the Jazz when they have played five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 42-18 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +

The Nets have been on an incredible run since the New Year. They have posted a 10-2 record in 2014 and we are getting a lot of value on Brooklyn as an underdog on their home court in this game. Oklahoma City is coming off a big upset win as an underdog against Miami, and I think that has the Thunder playing in a letdown spot in this matchup with the Nets.

These teams met earlier this month in Oklahoma City and it was Brooklyn that walked away with a victory. The Nets picked up a two point win on the road as a double-digit underdog, and considering how well Brooklyn has played recently there is no reason to expect a different outcome in this matchup on their home court. The Nets defense has been a key factor in their recent run. They have held opponents to a mere 91.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Thunder. You should fade teams like Oklahoma City when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent when that opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite against a division rival. This system has resulted in a 58-26 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn +

The wrong team is favored in this game since Dartmouth will be without its best player. Gabas Maldunas is out for the season with an ACL injury, and he is Dartmouth's leading scorer this season. You can see the impact Maldunas has on the team by looking at Dartmouth's performance against Harvard. They lost on the road by 16 points with Maldunas in the lineup and lost by 30 points at home without him.

Pennsylvania is a much better team than their record would indicate. They may be 4-11 overall this season, but the non-conference schedule has been incredibly tough. Dartmouth on the other hand has played an incredibly soft schedule this year, and I don't think the Big Green will be able to compete with Penn in this game. The Quakers are 1-0 against Ivy League opponents, while Dartmouth has lost five consecutive games including a 0-2 record against Ivy League teams. The Big Green are averaging just 51.8 points per game during that five game stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Quakers. You should play on underdogs coming off a win of 15 points or more when they are facing an opponent that is coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 255-164 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland -

This game has blowout written all over it. Oakland may not have a great record, but they have played an incredibly difficult schedule this season. The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents, and they have played in some very close games against them. They lost by just four points against then No. 5 ranked Michigan State on a neutral court, and they come into this matchup against Youngstown State with a 7-2 record at home.

The Penguins have struggled on the road this season posting a 4-7 record. I expect Oakland to put a huge number on the scoreboard facing such a soft defense. The Golden Grizzlies average 82.3 points per game at home while the Penguins are allowing 78.9 points per game on the road. Youngstown State is also -5 in rebounding margin on the road. They are at a statistical disadvantage on the boards and in the turnover margin.

Youngstown State comes into this matchup with a 2-5 ATS record against conference opponents. They have been given far too much credit from the oddsmakers recently, and that has resulted in a 2-3 ATS record in the Penguins last five games. Oakland has several statistical advantages in this game, and I think they are being undervalued because of their poor record. The Golden Grizzlies strength of schedule has been ridiculously difficult this year, and with home court advantage Oakland should easily win this game.

3* Late Night Bailout on Long Beach State +

The oddsmakers have given Hawaii too much credit for home court advantage in this game. The 49ers have been playing great basketball recently, winning three of their last four games. Two of those wins have come by a double-digit margin, and the third was an upset win as a road underdog. Long Beach State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games, and I like their chances to continue that trend against the Warriors.

Hawaii is a bad team defensively. They are surrendering 72.3 points per game this season. The Warriors offensive numbers are a bit inflated thanks to a soft schedule. Hawaii's opponents have been poor defensive teams that surrender an average of almost 75 points per game. That won't be the case in this matchup against Long Beach State. The 49ers are holding opponents 1.5 points below their scoring average this season.

You should play against home favorites that are coming off an upset win as an underdog when they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games and they are playing a team that has won only 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 59-25 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on Warriors -

This game has blowout written all over it. Golden State has played extremely well against division opponents this season. They have a 6-3 record, and the Warriors have the luxury of playing host in this matchup with the Clippers. Golden State is averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season, and they should score at will against a Clippers defense that has surrendered 103.9 points per game against division opponents.

The rest profile also favors Golden State in this matchup. They are coming off a day of rest as they prepare for their fifth consecutive home game. The Clippers have had a crazy schedule playing seven straight on the road before returning home last night to face Washington. Now they are playing in a back-to-back situation as they head north to face the Warriors tonight. This will be the Clippers fifth game in the past seven days.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Golden State after 42 or more games in the season when they are an average ball handling team committing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers versus an average pressure defense that is forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game. This matchup identifies home teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 94-59 (61%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between Louisiana Tech and UTEP. The Miners have a respectable 4-1 record in C-USA play, and they can move into a share of first place with a win over Louisiana Tech tonight. The Bulldogs are still without leading scorer Raheem Appleby, and with the competition level getting a lot stronger in this matchup I expect his absence to catch up with them.

The Bulldogs typically have a big rebounding advantage over their opponents, but that won't be the case against UTEP. The Miners are +6 in rebounding margin at home, and I see no reason why they won't dominate the boards in this matchup. The Miners are also riding a four game win streak, and they have a 10-3 straight up record at home.

This matchup fits into a system to play against Louisiana Tech. You should fade a hot team that has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when they have won 80 percent or more of their games overall and they are facing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Tennessee State +

Tennessee State may not have a great overall record, but they are a much better team than they are getting credit for. This matchup has a lot of upset potential, and I like the Tigers to play a great game against their in-state conference rival. Tennessee Tech picked up a win in the first meeting of the season between these teams, but it was only by four points. The Tigers had a poor shooting performance in that game, but we can expect a much better showing in the second meeting of the season between these teams.

Tennessee State played Wichita State to 14 points on the road, and lost by just five points on the road against Auburn. This is a young team that has shown a lot of improvement each week. They don't have any seniors, so everyone on the team will be fighting for a position on next year's team. There will be no packing it in for the Tigers this season, and they will have the revenge factor on their side in this matchup.

Tennessee Tech has been given too much credit from the oddsmakers when playing at home. The Golden Eagles have a 2-3 record against the spread at home, and they are 1-4 ATS overall in their last five games. Tennessee State on the other hand has a 7-4 ATS record on the road, and a winning record of 10-8 ATS overall this season. This is a big rivalry game for these schools, and it is one the Tigers hold the advantage. They are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons, and I expect them to improve on those numbers today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Indiana Pacers should dominate this game from the start. They have the best home court advantage in basketball, posting a 21-1 straight up record and a 16-6 ATS record in home games this season. The Pacers lost two of their last four games, and that has created value in this matchup with Phoenix. If not for those two recent losses I suspect the Pacers would be a much larger favorite.

The Pacers defense has been unbelievably good this season. They are holding opponents to a mere 83.7 points per game at home, while scoring an average of 99.5 points in those games. The Suns defense has struggled this season, and they are going through a really rough stretch recently. Phoenix has surrendered 104.2 points per game over its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Pacers. You should play on home favorites like Indiana when they are a well rested team playing their second game in five days and they are facing an opponent that is playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system is 29-10 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Belmont -

This game has blowout written all over it. Belmont is an explosive offensive team with a very underrated defense. The Bruins are averaging 79 points per game, and they have barely slowed down when playing on the road by still averaging 77.8 points per game. The defense has surrendered 75.2 points per game, but a big reason for that has been an incredibly difficult schedule. The Bruin's opponents have an offensive average of almost 73 points per game.

Belmont has dominated the head-to-head series with Morehead State. They are a perfect 3-0 straight up the last three seasons. The Bruins picked up a 14 point win the last time these teams met, and I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game enough to give Morehead State the advantage. Belmont is one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank sixth in the nation in field goal percentage making 50.1 percent of their attempts.

Morehead State has been a great team to fade in conference games the last two seasons. They have an 8-17 record against the spread, and they are just 2-5 ATS this season when facing an Ohio Valley rival. Morehead played a great game statistically in the first meeting of the season between these teams shooting 46 percent from the field and 41.2 percent on three point attempts. There was not much else they could do to narrow the gap, so I see no reason to expect a different result in this matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -

We are getting a lot of value on the Mavericks as such small favorites on their home court. Houston is playing in a back-to-back situation after playing host to San Antonio last night. I expect the Rockets to struggle without a day of rest and playing against a team like Dallas that has a 15-7 record at home this season. The Rockets have been a .500 team on the road for most of the season, and I have them losing big against the Mavericks who are coming into this matchup with two days of rest.

Houston gets a lot of media attention for their high scoring offense, but it is actually Dallas that has the statistical advantage in this matchup. The Mavericks are averaging 106.6 points per game at home this season, and I expect them to score at-will against a Rockets team that has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road. Dallas has also played incredibly well against division opponents. They are averaging 106.9 points per game against the division and have a 7-3 record in those games.

Dallas is 14-4 ATS in the second half of the season against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The Mavericks also have a 26-12 ATS record in all games when the line has been set at three points or less in either direction. Houston on the other hand has a 9-20 ATS record on the road when coming off an under. The Rockets have failed to score 100 points or more in three straight games, and I expect them to struggle keeping pace with the Mavericks in this matchup.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month on 76ers +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this game. Boston is playing in a tough back-to-back situation after getting blown out last night on the road against New York. Philadelphia on the other hand is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The 76ers offense gives them a big advantage in this game. They are averaging 101.4 points per game against division opponents, while Boston comes into this matchup averaging a mere 91.7 points in division games.

The Celtics are struggling just like the 76ers right now, and with the rest profiles favoring Philadelphia it looks like they catch the first break. Boston has lost four of its last five games, scoring a mere 89.8 points per game while allowing over 100 points per game during that stretch. The 76ers might also be 1-4 in their last five, but it has not been from a lack of offense. They are scoring 101.6 points per game during their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 76ers. You should play on road teams like Philadelphia after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game, and they are playing a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 80-26 (76%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Boston has not done a good job of protecting their home court, and playing without rest makes Philadelphia an easy call in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston College -

Virginia Tech is easily the worst team in the conference, and Boston College should have no problem picking up a big win at home in this matchup. The Hokies are averaging a mere 60.8 points per game on the road this season, and they will struggle to keep pace with this Eagles team that is averaging just shy of 72 points per game at home. Boston College may not have a great record, but they have certainly shown flashes of greatness this year.

The Eagles played a much closer game with Syracuse than the final score would indicate. The same can also be said about their game with North Carolina. The schedule has been incredibly difficult this season, yet Boston College has managed to play in some very close games. They already have a three point win on the road against Virginia Tech, and with home court advantage in these team's second meeting of the season I see no reason why the Eagles can't widen that margin of victory.

Virginia Tech is 2-10 ATS when coming off a game scoring 55 points or less. They have also been a great team to fade after playing from the road underdog position. The Hokies are 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons when coming off a game as a road dog. The Eagles have dominated the head-to-head series with Virginia Tech. They are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the last four games against the Hokies.

3* No Doubt Rout on La Salle +

George Washington is without its best player tonight when they take on La Salle, and I think they will have a hard time protecting their undefeated record at home without him. Kethan Savage is second in scoring and pulls in 4.6 rebounds per game for the Colonials. He is also second on the team in assists and first on the team in steals. Making up for his lost production will be a challenge, and I think La Salle is good enough to pull off the upset without Savage in the game.

The Explorers are averaging 70.9 points per game this season so keeping pace with GW should be a fairly easy task to accomplish. The defense is surrendering just 65.6 points per game when playing on the road. The Explorers have played well against conference opponents, posting a 3-2 record this season. Their most recent loss came in double-overtime against VCU in a game that was much closer than the final score.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Explorers. You should play on a team like La Salle that has failed to cover the spread in three or more games when they are playing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more games. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 119-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies +

The Trailblazers are struggling right now having dropped three of their last five games. Even when they have been winning, Portland is squeaking by its opponents. They have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games, and that is a trend I think will continue in this matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis has a very stingy defense, and after seeing Portland get held to just 88 points in their last outing I like the Grizzlies chances to put on a strong defensive performance. Memphis is surrendering a mere 94.2 points per game on the road this season. The Grizzlies defense is playing incredibly well recently, allowing just 86 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Memphis when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games, and they have a win percentage of 45 to 55 percent on the season. This system identifies teams with undervalued defenses, and it has resulted in a 50-23 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* American Athletic Game of the Week on South Florida +

This game has upset written all over it. The last time these teams met South Florida was on the road, and I expect them to get some revenge against the Mustangs when they play from the host role in the second meeting of the season. The Bulls have played a tough schedule recently, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to under value South Florida in this game.

The Bulls have played three consecutive games against ranked opponents. After a brutal stretch of schedule like that I expect South Florida to respond with a strong performance against SMU. The Mustangs have benefit from a soft schedule recently, and they are playing their second consecutive road game in the last three days. That should have SMU playing in a letdown spot against the Bulls.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing South Florida. You should play on underdogs like the Bulls after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games combined when playing in the month of January. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 42-15 (74%) record against the spread.

3* Main Event on Eastern Washington +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between the Eastern Washington Eagles and Portland State Vikings. Eastern Washington is averaging 74.2 points per game and they have the 112th scoring offense in the country. Portland State on the other hand is coming into this matchup with the 186th ranked scoring offense with 71.6 points per game. The Vikings also ranked near last in rebounds per game with 31.8.

Portland State has struggled against Big West opponents this season. They have a 3-4 record in conference games and a 2-5 ATS record in those matchups. Sadly, the oddsmakers have set the bar incredibly low for the Vikings in those games listing them as an underdog in five of their seven matchups with Big Sky foes. Three of the Vikings last four losses have come by a double-digit margin, and with Eastern Washington having such a strong rebounding advantage in this matchup, that trend will likely continue.

Portland State is 9-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons. They are also 2-10 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers or less after 15 or more games. You should play on underdogs like Eastern Washington when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games in a January game. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing and it has resulted in a 42-15 (73%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Vegas Insider of the Month on Utah Jazz -

The Sacramento Kings have not played well when they are completely healthy, so I do not like their chances tonight when they will try to avoid a fourth straight loss. The Kings will be visiting the Utah Jazz, and things don't look good since both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are listed as doubtful for this matchup. Sacramento already struggles in road games with a 6-13 record and without Cousins and Gay the Utah Jazz should win this game in a blowout.

Utah will have no problem scoring points as they face one of the league's worst defenses. The Kings have surrendered 106.7 points per game on the road this season. Over its last five games Sacramento has allowed 113 points per game. That puts them in a tough spot tonight against a Jazz team that has a 6-2 record at home in their last eight games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Jazz. You should play against road teams like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the season playing another team with a losing record. This system is 48-18 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after coming off a road game last night in Cleveland. That has them playing in a letdown situation today as they come into Philadelphia without rest to play their second consecutive road game, and third overall game in the last four days. There is a lot of value on Philadelphia as an underdog in this matchup since they are coming off a day of rest and played at home in their last outing.

The 76ers have played well on their home court, and I like their chances to pull off an upset in this game. Philadelphia averages 100.8 points per game at home while Phoenix is averaging 99.3 points per game on the road. Over their last five games the Suns have surrendered 100.8 points per game, so I don't think Philadelphia will have any problem getting points on the board in this matchup.

The Suns have not fared well against teams with a losing record. They are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season against a team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games over the last two seasons. I think we are getting added value on the 76ers with the return of Evan Turner. In the last meeting between these teams Turner had to miss the game because of a sore knee. It is also worth noting that the last time these teams played in Philadelphia it was the 76ers who picked up a 104-101 victory.

4* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -

We are getting a lot of value on the Warriors today thanks to a couple bad performances against some very good teams. I have Golden State getting things back on track tonight with a big win over Portland. The Trailblazers have been horrible defensively. They are surrendering 110.2 points per game over their last five games, and things could get really out of hand tonight against this Warriors team that averages 105.9 points per game at home.

While Golden State has had a few struggles on the defensive end of the court recently, you also can't ignore the fact that they held opponents to an average of 92.8 points per game during their recent 10 game win streak. Portland has lost its last two games on the road, scoring just 97 points in their last outing against Oklahoma City. I expect a similar performance out of the Trailblazers in this game, thanks to a strong defensive performance from Golden State.

The Warriors are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. Portland on the other hand has a 1-10 ATS record in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This matchup also fits a system to play on favorites like Golden State when they are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5 to 45.5 percent and are playing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5 to 47.5 percent when both teams have a +3 to +5.5 figure in rebounding margin. This system is 39-17 (70%) against the spread.

4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER

The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup.

The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons.

There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -

The Celtics are a bad team and I like the Nets to win this game in a blowout. Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league since the New Year winning nine of its last 10 games. They have covered the spread in eight of those games, yet the oddsmakers still seem to be undervaluing the Nets. A once struggling offense from Brooklyn is now averaging 103.1 points per game over its last five games.

Boston comes into this game with a 3-16 record in their last 19 games. I don't expect home court advantage to be a big factor since it is a short travel time from Brooklyn to Boston, and the Celtics fan base will probably be more excited about seeing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett than they will their own players. Pierce and Garnett were key factors in turning the Celtics franchise around, and this will be the first game on their old home court since the blockbuster trade that sent them to the Nets.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are coming off a loss by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in three straight games. This system has a 43-19 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.