3* Notre Dame/Clemson ACC Main Event on Clemson +

Most are going to be looking to back Notre Dame, expecting them to bounce back from that ugly 30-point loss to Duke on Saturday, but I think the Irish are going to find it extremely difficult to come away with a win at Clemson. The Tigers have quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.

While Clemson lost last time out 45-56 at Miami, that was a direct result of a miserable shooting performance (32.8%). Prior to that defeat, the Tigers had won 4 straight. I look for Clemson's defense to cause Notre Dame a lot of problems and let's not forget how fortunate the Irish are to be 4-2 on the road in conference play. Three of those wins came by 3-points or less.

Notre Dame is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 following a SU loss and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss. Clemson on the other hand is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Irish. Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game, who trailed in their previous game by 20 or more at the half are 12-31 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Clemson!

3* Thunder/Nuggets NBA Late Night Bailout on Thunder -

The Thunder are still two-games out of 8th place in the Western Conference and simply can't afford to lose against a struggling team like the Nuggets. Denver has lost 5 straight and 12 of their last 13 overall.

Oklahoma City will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after yesterday's 131-108 home win over the Clippers and I think that's the only reason we aren't seeing them favored by more in this spot.

The key thing to keep in mind is that the Thunder could actually be the team playing with more energy in this one. Denver has several players battling flu-like symptoms. After Friday's 88-98 loss at Detroit, head coach Brian Shaw stated that the Nuggets have 5 or 6 guys under the weather and went on to say that "We're trying to hang on and keep battling. Hopefully, we can ... (recuperate), re-energize, reboot and give a better effort after the All-Star break."

Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 105+ points, while the Nuggets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points and 0-9 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 86% (44-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Magic/Wizards UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Magic. Washington is coming of a 114-77 home win over the Nets, where they held Brooklyn to just 33.8% shooting. The Wizards had lost their previous 5, so I'm not expecting them to relax at all and I look for the energy to be there again defensively at home.

Orlando on the other hand has been a much stronger defensive team since they fired head coach Jacque Vaughn. The Magic held the Lakers to just 97-points in their first game without Vaughn and held Chicago to 98 yesterday. Prior to these two games, Orlando had allowed 100+ in 14 straight games.

Adding to this is the fact that these two teams have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last have seen a combined score of 191 or less and the Wizards are holding the Magic to just 91.5 ppg over the last 4.

UNDER is 18-7-1 in Orlando's last 26 road games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 14-6-1 in their last 21 when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games following a SU win, 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a lsing record and 19-7-1 in their last 27 when playing on 1 days rest. These trends add up to form a 73% (59-22) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 Vegas Insider on Baylor -

Both of these teams come into this matchup off impressive wins this Saturday. Oklahoma State rallied from a double-digit first half deficit to stun Kansas 67-62, while Baylor went on the road and rolled West Virginia 87-69. It was the Bears third straight win by at least 18-points and I look for them to be the more focused and motivated team in this one.

The Cowboys invested everything they had into beating the Jayhawks and I just don't don't see them coming out with the energy needed to keep this one competitive against Baylor. One of the big keys here is that Baylor will be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State back on Jan. 24. Keep in mind the Bears lost 63-73 at Oklahoma and later cruised to a 69-58 win at home over the Sooners. Baylor is 13-1 at home, while the Cowboys are just 5-5 on the road with three double-digit losses on the road inside conference play.

Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against a strong team that's won 60% to 80% of their games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg after 15+ games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

5* Blazers/Rockets Western Conf Game of the Month on Rockets -

Good spot here to go against the Trail Blazers, who just lost in overtime last night against the Mavericks. That extra 5-minutes of action is going to make it hard for Portland to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to win on the road against the Rockets. All 5 starters played at least 37 minutes with everyone but Brook Lopez playing at least 40 minutes.

Tired legs is the last thing you want against James Harden and Houston's uptempo attack. I look for the Rockets to come out really looking to push the tempo here and they shouldn't have much a problem doing so. This will be just their 3rd game in the month of February and each of the previous two have both come at home.

Houston is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games after playing their last game as a favorite and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games after a non-conference matchup. Portland is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-18) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Magic UNDER

These two teams combined for 235 points at Chicago back on Jan. 12 and I believe it has forced the books to overreact and set this total a lot higher than what it should be. Keep in mind that the total in the previous contest was just 190.

Chicago is coming in off an impressive 107-72 win at New Orleans last night, snapping their 3-game losing streak. While the Bulls will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, Jimmy Butler was the only player to play more than 30 minutes (34). Chicago has some revenge on their minds against the Magic and I look for them to come out motivated defensively in this one. 

Orlando rallied to beat the Lakers 103-97 in their first game after firing their head coach and held LA to a mere 40.2% shooting. It was the first time in 13 games that the Magic held an opponent under 45%. I look for them to come out with another strong defensive effort in this one.

UNDER is 32-17 over the last 3 seasons when the Bulls are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 road games off a win by 10+ points and 12-3 in the Magic's last 15 after a win by 6-points or less. These add up to form a strong 71% (57-23) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Michigan/Indiana NCAAB Vegas Insider on Michigan +

This is a great spot to back Michigan, as we are getting an inflated line here on Indiana due to the Wolverines coming in off an ugly 54-72 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Prior to that defeat, Michigan had covered the number in each of their previous 4 games, including heartbreaking overtime losses to both Wisconsin and Michigan State.

The Wolverines were simply outsized by Iowa and just weren't emotionally invested in that game. I look for a completely different Michigan team to take the floor against the Hoosiers and that should lead to not only an easy cover, but a potential outright win. Indiana's just 1-3 in their last 4 games, with their only win coming against Rutgers at home by a mere 8-points.

The Wolverines are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a SU loss, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 72% (54-21) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets -

The Hornets are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I look for them to have no problem disposing of the 76ers by double-digits tonight. Charlotte has won 12 of their last 15 overall and have already knocked off Philadelphia twice this season, including a 109-91 win on the road back on Dec. 19.

One of the big keys here is we are catching the 76ers in the 2nd game of back-to-back and without their best offensive player in Michael Carter-Williams. It's been hard enough for Philadelphia to score at full strength and it figures to be a huge challenge tonight. Charlotte is only giving up 85.4 ppg over their last 5 contests.

The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a ATS win last time out, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win, 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team with a losing home record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Wizards -

It's been a miserable stretch here for the Wizards, while Brooklyn comes in having won 3 straight. I believe this has Washington undervalued at home. The Wizards aren't going to take this game lightly, as they are going to come out extremely motivated to snap their current 5-game losing streak.

Brooklyn on the other hand is in a bad spot here. The Nets just got done playing last night at home against rival New York. Not only will Brooklyn be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 5 days.

Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Nets. Teams revenging a straight up loss against an opponent off an upset loss to a division rival are 43-79 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Wright State +

The Raiders are showing some big time value as a 9.5-point underdog against Cleveland State on Saturday. Wright State lost by just 5-points at home to the Vikings earlier this season and these two have quite a history of playing closely contested games. In the previous 6 meetings dating back to January of 2013, Wright State has won 4 and their two losses have come by 5-points or fewer.

Wright State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record at least 16 games into the season and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after 15+ games when going up against a team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland State is just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games against slow-down teams who are averaging 53 or fewer shots/game. These trends combine to form a 95% (20-1) system in favor of the Raiders. Take Wright State!

3* Kansas/Oklahoma St Big 12 Main Event on Oklahoma St +

The books are begging for action here on Kansas, but I'm not taking the bait. Oklahoma State is a strong 10-2 at home and I look for the Cowboys to put an end to the Jayhawks 5-game winning streak. Oklahoma State will also be out for revenge here, as they lost a tough one at Kansas 57-67 back in January.

The Cowboys won their last home game against the Jayhawks 72-65 as a -1 point favorite and the previous time before that lost a heartbreaker 67-68 in overtime as a 1-point dog. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after allowing 65 points or less in 4 straight games, 30-19 ATS in their last 49 revenging a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after recording 9 or less assists in their previous contest. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (49-22) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

5* Baylor/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on W Virginia -

The Mountaineers are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Bears. Not hard to see why West Virginia is being undervalued here. The Mountaineers come in off a 19-point lost at Oklahoma (52-71), while Baylor comes in off back-to-back 20+ point blowout wins at home over Texas and TCU.

The key here is the fact the Mountaineers were without the services of Devin Williams against the Sooners. Williams leads the team in conference play with 13.4 ppg and is 2nd in the Big 12 with 9.1 rpg. He's expected to be back for this one and I look for the Mountaineers to lay a beating on the Bears. Baylor is just 1-3 in their last 4 on the road and 1-9 in their last 10 away from home against a ranked foe.

Not only will West Virginia be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to Oklahoma, but the Mountaineers will also be out for revenge. The Bears came into Morgantown and came away with a 88-75 road win as a 3-point dog last year. West Virginia is going to make sure that doesn't happen again.

Baylor is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points, while the Mountaineers are 25-15 ATS in their last 40 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. These add up to form a solid 65% (45-24) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz +

The Suns come into this contest riding a season worst 3-game losing streak and the perception is that they are going to bounce back at home against the Jazz. I don't think that will be the case at all. While Utah has last 4 of their last 5, they have been extremely competitive during this stretch against some of the elite teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz lost by 5-points to the Clippers, upset the Warriors 110-100, lost a heartbreaker to Portland 102-103 and held their own in a 10-point loss to the Grizzlies.

One of things that you have to like about getting points with Utah in this matchup, is the fact that they won 118-91 at home against Phoenix back on Nov. 1. It was the Jazz's 3rd straight win in the series, which tells us they are a bad matchup for the Suns.

Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are 48-88 ATS when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 5 seasons.

Utah is 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games in the 2nd half of the season against terrible defensive teams that are allowing 103+ points/game, 13-1 ATS in their last 14 road games after two or more consecutive overs and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. These trends combine to form a 77% (57-17) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

4* 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Game of the Week on 76ers +

The 76ers are quietly playing some of their best basketball of the season and I think we are getting some great value here. Philadelphia has won 3 of their last 5, including a 105-98 win at home against the Nuggets last time out.

Boston has won 2 straight, but were fortunate to escape with a 104-100 win at home against the Nuggets and the other came against the struggling Knicks. The Celtics aren't a good enough team to be laying this many points, especially in a tough scheduling spot that has them playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Boston could also have a difficult time taking the 76ers seriously, as they already won by 11 at Philadelphia and 18 at home in the two previous matchups this season.

The 76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Friday. Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots/game and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home with a total of 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a 73% (47-17) system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Cavs UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than what the books are anticipating with this total. Cleveland comes in off an impressive offensive performance against the Clippers, but I just don't see them coming out with that same level of intensity offensively on the road against a bad team like the Pacers in the second game of a back-to-back set.

Indiana knows that their only chance of winning this game is to slow down the tempo and really turn up the energy defensively. The Pacers have done a pretty good job of that at home, where they are holding opponents to just 96.3 ppg on the season.

On the flip side of this, Indiana figures to have a difficult time scoring against a Cavaliers defense that is allowing just 90.4 ppg in their last 5. Adding to this is the fact Cleveland hasn't allowed 100 points in 10 straight and should have no problem slowing down a Pacers offense that is only averaging 95.5 ppg at home.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Pacers 13 home games this season against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-1 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, 7-1 in Cleveland's last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 22-4 in their last 26 against an opponent that allowed 100 or more in their last game. These trends combine to form a 86% (50-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Cincinnati/SMU AAC Game of the Week on SMU -

The Mustangs come in having won 8 straight and have a big game against AAC leading Tulsa on Saturday, but I'm not expecting SMU to look past Cincinnati. The Bearcats handed SMU their last loss in a 56-50 home win back on Jan. 3. Not only will the Mustangs be playing with revenge, but I think we are getting some great value here because of it.

SMU is 13-1 at home and are a perfect 5-0 at home inside conference play. The impressive thing with the Mustangs undefeated record at home in the AAC, is the fact that all 5 of those wins have come by at least 14 points.

Cincinnati continues to play without head coach Mick Cronin, who is dealing with a health issue and come in off an ugly 46-50 loss at East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. The defeat dropped the Bearcats to just 1-3 on the road in the ACC, with their only win coming against bottom feeder UCF.

Cincinnati is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after allowing 60 points or less in 3 straight games. SMU is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bearcats. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming in off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points are just 13-39 ATS since 1997. That's a 75% system in favor of the Mustangs. Bet SMU!

5* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Wizards are coming into this contest having lost 4 straight and have failed to cover the number in each of their last 8 games. That includes a 88-92 loss at home to Hornets on Monday. Getting back in the win column combined with revenge against Charlotte, gives us confidence that we will get Washington's best effort in this one.

While the Hornets have gone an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games, they are playing without star point guard and leading scorer Kemba Walker. While Charlotte defeated the Wizards without Walker and are 5-1 without him, those other 4 wins have come against the likes of the Nuggets, Knicks, Timberwolves and Pacers.

Wizards are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog, while the Hornets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams that are revenging a home loss against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 70-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten Main Event on Iowa -

This is a great spot to back the Hawkeyes, who are going to come out extremely motivated after losing their last 3. The key thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came against Wisconsin and the other came at Purdue (63-67) where they lost leading scorer Aaron White early in the first half. White is back healthy and I look for the Hawkeyes to go into Ann Arbor and come away with a victory.

This line really says it all. Michigan has covered each of their last 4, while Iowa has failed to cover 3 straight, yet the Hawkeyes are the ones listed as the favorite. The Wolverines continue to play without both Derrick Walton Jr. and Caris LeVert and are simply not that great of a team. Just looking at the numbers, Iowa should have the edge on the offensive boards and free throw line, which should be more than enough to allow them to pull away for the win.

Hawkeyes are 16-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (27-9) system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* Oklahoma St/Texas Big 12 Main Event on Texas -

This is a great spot to back the Longhorns at home. Texas is going to come out extremely motivated as they look to snap a 3-game losing streak, which includes an ugly 23-point loss at Baylor last time out. The Longhorns will also be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State earlier this season.

While Texas lost 62-75 to Kansas in their last home game, prior to that they rolled over West Virginia 77-50 as a 3-point favorite. Not only are the Longhorns primed for a big time performance at home, Oklahoma State has struggled on the road. The Cowboys last 3 conference road games have resulted in a 10-point loss at Kansas State, 17-point loss at Oklahoma and 10-point loss at Kansas.

Oklahoma State is 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games versus a team with a winning home record and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6-points or less. Texas on the other hand is a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Nuggets/Celtics OVER

I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in this one. Both the Celtics and Nuggets will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and not a whole lot of motivation here given how poorly these two teams have been playing of late. Denver is just 1-10 in their last 11 games, while the Celtics are a 7-16 in their last 23.

Both teams come in off less than impressive efforts defensively. The Celtics allowed New York to score 97 points on 49.4% shooting last night, while Denver allowed the 76ers lackluster offense to put up 105 points. The Nuggets also gave up 104 in their previous game against the offensively challenged Hornets.

OVER is 26-13 in the Nuggets last 39 revenging a same season loss, 21-9 in their last 30 road games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 19-9 in the Celtics last 28 home games against poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less turnovers/game), 16-7-1 in their last 24 following a SU win and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 50-22 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 points that features two bad teams (25% to 40%) facing off in the 2nd half of the season. That's a 69% system. Take the OVER!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Nuggets +

It's been a rough stretch for Denver, who has lost 10 of their last 11, which includes an ugly 98-105 loss at Philadelphia last night. Boston on the other hand comes in off a 108-97 win at New York. First instinct would be to back the Celtics laying just 3-points at home, but I think the books are setting a big trap here.

Boston has won consecutive games just once since the middle of December and are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win by more than 10-points. It's also worth noting that the Celtics have really struggled at home of late. Boston has last 4 straight at the Garden and 7 of their last 9 overall.

Denver is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, while The Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who make 6 or more 3-pointers per game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams that are allowing 103+ ppg after trailing in their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 94-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

4* BC/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Boston College +

The perception will be that Notre Dame is going to bounce back after a tough 72-76 road loss at Pittsburgh, but I look for the Fighting Irish to struggle to put away the Eagles. Notre Dame has routinely played in close games. Out of their 9 conference games, 8 have been decided by 7-points or less.

Not only are the Irish struggling to put teams away, they find themselves in a big letdown spot. Notre Dame is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch that had them go on the road against NC State, host Duke and they go back on the road against Pitt. On top of that, they have a huge game on the road against Duke on deck Saturday. Boston College is just 1-7 inside conference play, but have been competitive in a number of those losses and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one.

Notre Dame is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off a conference loss and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 off a conference road loss. The Fighting Irish are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games into the season. These trends combine to form a 83% (50-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on George Mason +

The Patriots are showing some great value here as a double-digit home dog. VCU is coming off a 55-64 home loss to Richmond and in the process lost arguably their most important player in senior Briante Weber, who is the catalyst to their press defense that causes opposing teams so much trouble. Weber was leading the country with 3.9 steals per game.

It's going to take some time for the Rams to adjust without Weber and I think it's asking too much for them to win here by double-digits. George Mason has been a tough out at home. They have wins over both LaSalle and Saint Louis, while keeping it close against both UMass (62-66) and Davidson (73-80). VCU on the other hand has won their last 3 conference road games by a combined 13 points.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite and just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after shooting 33% or worse from the field in their last game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Rams. Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason!

4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette +

Marquette is showing some great value here as a massive road dog against Villanova. The Golden Eagles have been a lot more competitive inside the Big East than their 2-7 record would indicate. Marquette's 7 losses in conference play have come by an average of just 5.7 ppg and not one of them have been by more than 10-points.

Despite being in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, the Golden Eagles have shown no signs of giving up on their season and are not only capable of covering this large number, but pulling off the big upset. It's also worth noting that Villanova is primed for a letdown. The Wildcats come in off two blowout wins over Creighton and DePaul and have a huge revenge game on deck at home against Georgetown on Saturday (lost by 20-points at Georgetown on Jan. 19).

Marquette is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points, 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their 6 road games against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here as a massive road dog against the Blue Devils. This the definition of a trap game for Duke, who comes in off a upset 69-63 win at Virginia and has a big home game against Notre Dame on deck, who they lost to recently in the final seconds 73-77.

Georgia Tech has gone a disappointing 1-8 in conference play, but could easily be sitting with a much better record inside the ACC. Out of the 8 conferences losses the Yellow Jackets have suffered, 7 have come by 7-points or less, including 4 by 3-points or fewer. They showed just what they are capable of in a 70-50 road win at Miami as a 9.5-point underdog back on Jan. 28.

Georgia Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 4 of their last 5 games.  Yellow Jackets are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on the road. Duke is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 against the ACC, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 80% (56-14) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT on Trail Blazers -

This is a perfect spot to back the Trail Blazers at home. Portland comes in having lost 3 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but the thing to keep in mind is that 6 of those 8 losses have come on the road and another came at home against the Clippers. Portland is 20-5 at home on the season and we can expect one of the Blazers best efforts of the season tonight.

Utah comes in off an impressive 110-100 win at home over the Warriors. While to some that might look like a win to build off of, I think the Jazz are in for a letdown here after that big upset. This will be Utah's first road game in over 10 days and it's well known that this is a team that struggles on the road. Utah is just 36-60 (38%) ATS in their last 96 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Jazz. Underdogs off an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 7-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +

I believe we are getting exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Illini. Illinois was able to hold on for a 60-58 home win over Penn State last time out, despite missing leading scorer Rayvonte Rice and fellow starter Aaron Crosby, who have both been suspended indefinitely.

The fact that the Illini were able to hold on for a win, combined with the Scarlet Knights coming in having lost 6 straight, has Illinois extremely overvalued. Not only does Rutgers have an excellent shot at covering this large spread, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.

The Scarlet Knights are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Illinois is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive conference games. Fighting Illinois are also just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Tuesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites after 15 or more games following a close win by 3-points or less, that have a +8 or more ppg differential against an opponent with a -3.5 to -8 ppg differential are just 10-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 76% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers!

5* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -

This is simply not a good matchup for Mississippi State, who already lost at home 47-61 to Tennessee back on Jan. 7. In that matchup the Bulldogs shot just 30.6% from the field and were outrebounded 44-28. I look for the Volunteers defense and rebounding to make it extremely difficult for Mississippi State to keep this one competitive. 

Each of the Bulldogs last two trips to Thompson-Boling Arena have resulted in losses by at least 15 points. Tennessee is 9-2 at home this season. While they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites last time out in a 71-63 win over Auburn at home, the Volunteers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

Mississippi State on the other hand is 11-24 ATS in their last 36 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU win. The Bulldogs are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game, while Tennessee is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ rebounds/game. These trends combine to form a 70% (78-34) system in favor of the Volunteers. Take Tennessee!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Mavericks. Dallas is simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over the Heat (93-72) and Magic (108-93), along with a recent 98-75 win at Minnesota back on Jan. 21.

The thing to keep in mind is that since that ugly loss at home to the Mavericks, Minnesota has welcomed the return of Kevin Martin and are expected to get back starting point guard Ricky Rubio tonight. Dallas on the other hand will be without their starting point guard in Rajon Rondo.

I look for the Mavericks to struggle to come out with intensity needed to turn this one into a rout, especially given how easily they beat the Timberwolves in the last meeting and the fact that they have a huge game on deck Wednesday at Golden State that will be televised on ESPN.

Minnesota is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 off a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Dallas on the other hand is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 against the Western Conference.

Adding to this is a great system backing a fade of Dallas. Favorites of 10 or more who have gone under the total by 54 points or more in their last 10 games are 8-29 ATS in the month of February since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Raptors/Bucks OVER

I'm expecting a very high scoring game tonight between the Bucks and Raptors. Toronto comes in averaging 116.8 ppg over their last 5 contests, while Milwaukee is averaging a respectable 103.0 ppg over their last 5 outings.

In the previous meeting this season at Toronto in the series, these two combined for 207 points with the Bucks only managing 83 points on 36.5% shooting. I look for Milwaukee to provide a lot more offense this time, which should have this one flying well over the mark set by the books. Adding to this is the fact that the OVER is 8-0 in the Bucks last 8 trips to Toronto.

This is also a solid spot to back the OVER with the Raptors off back-to-back road wins by 5 points or less. Teams in this spot have seen the OVER go 118-65 (65%) since 1996.

The OVER is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field, 14-4 in their last 18 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-2 in their last 13 when they come in having won 4 of 5. OVER is also 11-2 in Raptors last 13 after allowing 105+ in 2 straight games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (55-11) system. Take the OVER!

4* UConn/Houston NCAAB Vegas Insider on UConn -

The Huskies have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games, which I believe has them extremely undervalued here against a bad Houston team. Connecticut also comes in off an uguly 58-70 road loss at Cincinnati, which is going to have them coming out extremely motivated to get back in the win Column.

Houston snapped a 8-game with a 59-48 win over Rice in a rare non-conference game. The Cougars are still a dismal 0-8 inside the American Athletic, where they are getting outscored by an average of 12.3 ppg.

The Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a conference loss and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (36-12) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Connecticut!

3* Heat/Celtics NBA Main Event on Heat +

I look for the Heat to bounce back from a difficult home loss to the Mavericks. Miami allowed Dallas to go on a 37-2 run in the 2nd half to erase a 16-point deficit. There's no way that loss has sat well with the Heat players and I look for them to take out their frustration on the Celtics.

Boston has lost 2 straight and are just 6-14 in their last 20. The Celtics are only 9-14 at home compared to 7-15 on the road and 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home. Miami on the other hand has been a much better road team than they have at home. The Heat are 12-11 away from home, compared to 8-15 on the road.

While Dwayne Wade won't be available, there's a good chance that Luol Deng will return to the Heat. However, the real key player in this matchup is emerging big man Hassan Whiteside, who figures to have a field day against a Celtics starting 5 that doesn't start anyone over 6'9 and will be without one of their top scorers in reserve Kelly Olynyk.

Boston is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after dropping 3 of their last 4 and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing their last game as an underdog. Miami on the other hand is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 road games versus poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ ppg.

We also have a proven long-term system backing a fade of the Celtics. Teams revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite, that are off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog are just 157-246 since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* Clippers/Spurs NBA Late Night Bailout on Spurs -

I think we are going to some great value here with the Spurs. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall, but are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. I believe their lackluster ATS run of late, combined with a big time opponent in the Clippers, has provided with a golden spot to take the Spurs at home. 

San Antonio is finally starting to get healthy and I look for this team to go a big run here leading up to the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a lackluster performance on the road against the Pelicans, which saw them lose 103-108 as a 8-point favorite.

It's also worth noting that this is a bad scheduling spot for LA, who is not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the span of just 4 days. Spurs on the other hand will be playing just 2nd game in the last 6 days.

San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played in the 2nd half of the season against a team that's outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg, while the Clippers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Raptors/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards -

The Wizards are showing some great value here as a mere 4-point home dog, largely due to the fact that the Raptors come in getting way to much respect here after winning 5 straight. The key thing here is that this is an absolute brutal spot for Toronto, who will not only being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 4th in the last 5 days.

The Wizards are 18-6 at home this season, where they outscoring opponents by 7 ppg (101.9 to 94.9). I believe Washington's strong home defense will be the difference in this one, as the Raptors are giving up 105.3 ppg on the road. Toronto simply isn't going to have the energy to keep up offensively with what their defense is going to allow.

It's also worth noting that the Wizards will be out for revenge from an ugly 84-103 loss at Toronto back on Nov. 7. Washington is 27-14 ATS in their last 41 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. The Wizards are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Toronto is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These last two trends combine to give us a strong 78% (18-5) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Rhode Island -

While Rhode Island comes in having won 3 straight, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe that poor ATS run has the Rams showing some great value here as a small home favorite. Rhode Island is 9-1 at home this season with the only loss coming against VCU by a mere 5-points.

George Washington just got rolled 48-72 at VCU in their last game and I look for the Colonials to struggle to bounce back from such a poor performance. George Washington is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Colonials. Road underdogs who have gone under the total by 12+ points in each of their last two games are just 46-81 ATS since 1997 in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 80%).  That's a 64% long-term system in favor of the Rams. Take Rhode Island!

4* Georgia/S Carolina NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on South Carolina -

While the Gamecocks have lost 4 straight and are just 1-6 inside SEC play, I really like South Carolina in this spot. The Gamecocks are a much better team than their record would indicate. Keep in mind this a team that knocked off Iowa State (64-60), Oklahoma State (75-49) and Clemson (68-45) in non-conference play.

Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC with a 2-1 record on the road, but the thing you have to keep in mind is that both of those road win came against bottom feeders Mississippi St and Vanderbilt, who unlike South Carolina are as bad as their records would indicate.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a strong 67% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!

5* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Evansville -

Drake is one of the worst teams in the country, as they come in at 5-16 overall and just 2-7 inside the MVC. I believe this is a perfect spot to go against the Bulldogs as a relatively small home underdog, as Drake comes in off a 69-57 win at Bradley.

Evansville comes in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. The Purple Aces have also won three straight on the road inside conference play and are 6-2 ATS on the road this season. I look for Evansville to carry over that momentum and cruise to any easy win here against a far inferior Drake team.

The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS this season when playing on Saturday, losing by an average score of 57.4 to 72.6 (15.2 ppg). Evansville on the other hand is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after playing two straight games as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off a home win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (44-9) system in favor of the Purple Aces. Take Evansville!

3* Kent State/Buffalo Late Night ATS Bailout on Buffalo -

This is a great spot to back the Bulls at home against the Golden Flashes. Kent State comes in having gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, while Buffalo is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6. This has the Golden Flashes extremely overvalued.

Kent State's only played two road games during their recent surge and both came against two of the worst teams in the MAC in Northern Illinois and Ball State. Buffalo comes in off an impressive 77-71 home win over Western Michigan, improving to 7-0 at home on the season. This will be the Golden Flashes first real road test since going to Kansas back on Dec. 30 and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive.

Buffalo is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a pick'em or favorite and 18-7 in their last 25 home games off a win by 6 points or less. The Bulls are also a solid 45-26 (63%) in their last 71 when playing a home game after a home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Mavericks -

This is the perfect spot to back Dallas, as I look for them to come out with one of their best performances of the season. The Mavericks have dropped a season-high 4 straight and questions are coming up whether the Rondo trade was a bad move. Getting back in the win column and proving their doubters wrong would have been plenty of motivation, but Dallas will also be playing with revenge from a 96-105 home loss to Miami back on Nov. 9.

In that previous loss to the Heat earlier this season, Miami got 30-points from Luol Deng and 20 from Dwayne Wade, who went a combined 22 of 37 (59%) from the field. Unfortunately for the Heat, both Wade and Deng will be sitting out this one with injuries, which is going to allow Dallas to focus their attention on stopping Bosh and thus making it extremely difficult for the Heat to generate any offense.

Another thing to keep in mind, is that Dallas has won more games on the road (16) than they have at home (14), while the Heat are the exact opposite. Miami is 8-14 at home, compared to 12-9 on the road.

The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have won fewer than 40% of their home games. Miami on the other hand is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ in their last game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference's Southwest division and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that's gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 are 31-8 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 80% system in favor of the Mavericks. Take Dallas!

4* Timberwolves/76ers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves -

Minnesota snapped a 5-game losing streak in an impressive 110-98 home win over the Celtics on Wednesday and I look for the Timberwolves to carry over that momentum with another easy win against the 76ers. What a lot of people are overlooking with Minnesota, is the fact that they are starting to get healthy, as both Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin have both returned from injury. 

One of the big reasons that we are getting solid value here with Minnesota, is the fact that the 76ers come in off a 86-69 win over the Pistons. The thing to keep in mind with that victory is Detroit has been on a free fall since losing Brandon Jennings and were playing in an absolutely brutal spot. The Pistons not only were in the second game of a back-to-back, but they were also playing their 4th overall in 5 days.

Prior to that win, Philadelphia had lost 8 of their previous 9 with all 8 losses coming by at least 5 points. The 76ers are not any good and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive. While these two teams have similar records, you have to keep in mind that Minnesota plays in the much tougher conference and have had most of their key guys out with injury.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), following a win by 10+ points are 30-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* Cal/Washington St Late Night Vegas Insider on Cal +

Cal has endured a disappointing 1-6 start to conference play, but I think this is a great spot for the Golden Bears to snap their 6-game losing streak. Cal will be out for revenge against the Cougars, who they lost to at home 66-69 back on Jan. 4.

One of the big keys here is that Washington State is also coming in to this contest in a bit of a slump. The Cougars have dropped 3 straight and I believe the books are begging for action here on Washington State as a mere 3-point home favorite. Keep in mind that Cal had won 3 straight in the series prior to that loss earlier this month, they are also 2-2 in their last 4 visits to Washington State, with their largest defeat coming by just 4-points.

Cal is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 straight conference losses, while Washington State is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 0-6 in this spot when coming off a road loss by 20 or more points. The Cougars are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 60 or less and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 80+. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (61-17) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

4* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring contest tonight between the Nuggets and Grizzlies. Memphis has surrendered 100+ points just once in their last 8 games and during this stretch are holding opponents to just 92.3 ppg. Denver has eclipsed the century mark just once in their last 4 games and are only averaging 98.4 ppg on the road.

The Nuggets come in off a strong defensive effort last night in a 93-85 win at New Orleans and I look for them to bring that same intensity defensively against the Grizzlies, especially with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. This should also have Memphis bringing their "A" game defensively.

However, the big key here is pace. The Grizzlies come in ranked 26th in the league with a pace of 94.2. While Denver is 5th at 98.3, the Nuggets won't be playing up to their normal tempo. Partly due to Memphis being able to control the pace at home and mainly due to Denver playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 4th in 5 days overall.

UNDER is 19-6 in the Grizzlies last 25 off a division road win, 20-8 in their last 28 after a blowout win by 15+ points and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%. UNDER is also 14-4-1 in Nuggets last 19 when their opponent scores 100+ in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Thursday and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (68-19) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Oregon/Arizona Late Night ATS Bailout on Oregon +

I think we are getting some great value here with Oregon as a massive road dog against the Wildcats. I know the Ducks lost by 18-points at home earlier this season to Arizona, but they only trailed by 5-points at the half and shot season-worst 35.7% from the field.

This is a much better Oregon team than what the books are indicating, as they are simply being way undervalued due to going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Keep in mind that Oregon was only a 6.5-point underdog at home to Arizona in that first meeting, which means at worst they should be getting around 12.5 points.

One thing you have to like here is that Oregon has had their fair share of success on the road against the Wildcats. In the Ducks last 8 trips to Arizona, they have won 3 of those outright. Only 2 of their 5 losses have come by double-digits and none by more than the spread listed here.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Teams that have won 18 or more of their last 20 games, who are playing their 3rd game in a week are 36-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon!

4* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +

We are getting some big time value on Georgia Tech as a near double-digit road dog against the Hurricanes. This is largely due to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are a conference worst 0-7 in ACC play, while Miami is ranked inside the Top 25 and sitting near the top of the standings.

The thing that you have to keep in mind is that while Georgia Tech has not won a single conference game, they have been extremely competitive. The Yellow Jackets only loss by more than 10-points was on the road against undefeated Virginia. Each of their other 6 conference losses have all come by 7-points or less, including a 3-point loss to Notre Dame and 1-point defeat to Syracuse.

Miami does have an impressive 16-point win over Duke on their resume, but that's their only conference win by more than 5 points. This is also a difficult spot for the Hurricanes, who are coming off a huge road win over Syracuse and have an even bigger showdown against rival Florida State on deck Saturday.

Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games at least 15+ games into the season against team who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing just their 3rd game in a week. Miami has failed to cover as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in both spots previously this season and are 0-3 ATS over the last 3 years off back-to-back wins by 6-points or less. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Not only is Dallas in the midst of a minor slump with 3 straight losses, the Mavericks are in an awful scheduling spot, as they are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Dallas is 2-6 ATS when playing on 0 rest and just 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Rockets already knocked off Dallas at home 95-92 back on Nov. 22 and have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Mavericks. Dallas is also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a division opponent.

It's important to note that last night the Mavericks fell 90-109 at home to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite, as that sets up a great system to go against Dallas. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning record on the season, who are off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more points and up against a team with a winning record are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% long-term system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Pistons/76ers UNDER

The 76ers have seen each of their last 5 and 12 of their last 13 finish UNDER the total and I'm expecting that trend to continue tonight against the Pistons. Philadelphia comes in averaging a horrific 89.5 ppg and it doesn't figure to get any better with leading scorer Tony Wroten out with a torn ACL and second leading score Michael Carter-Williams questionable with the flu.

While the Pistons have allowed 100+ in each of their last 4 games, they are certainly capable of keeping this 76ers offense in check. On top of this, Detroit doesn't figure to be playing up to their typical pace. The Pistons will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that Detroit is without one of their top offensive playmakers in Brandon Jennings, who was recently lost for the year with a torn Achilles.

UNDER is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4 and 0-3 this season when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days. UNDER is also 9-2 in 76ers last 11 after 2 straight games where they shot 39% or worse and 14-4 in their last 18 revenging a same season loss to an opponent. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Trail Blazers/Cavaliers NBA Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers +

It might seem like a bad idea to go against the Cavaliers given their recent form, but I think this is the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. The Trail Blazers come into this contest off a full 3-days of rest, while the Cavaliers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

Adding to the poor scheduling spot for Cleveland, is the fact that the Cavaliers are not a deep team. Four of their five starters played at least 32 minutes in last night's win over the Pistons, including 42 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who also played 41 minutes in Sunday's game against Cleveland.

I look for a well rested Blazers team to take advantage of the tired legs of the Cavs and not only cover, but potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that Portland had their way at home against Cleveland in a 101-82 home win back on Nov. 4.

Cavaliers are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and a mere 5-13 ATS this season when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Portland on the other hand is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off an upset win as an underdog.

We also have a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

The Heat come into this game off an impressive 96-84 win at Chicago on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog and I believe it has Miami overvalued at home. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Heat, is that they are a much better road team than they are home. Miami is just 8-13 SU and 8-13 ATS at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The Bucks have been one of the surprise teams early on and come in having covered 2 straight. They rolled over the Pistons 101-86 at home on Saturday and kept it respectable in a 95-101 loss at San Antonio as a 11.5-point underdog. Milwaukee already won at Miami 91-84 back on Nov. 16 and followed that up with a 109-85 home win over the Heat on Dec. 5. The Bucks clearly matchup well with Miami and I fully expect them to win this game outright.

Milwaukee is 17-5 ATS this season when playing against a team with a losing record, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game. Heat are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a solid defensive team (41.5% to 43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) are 40-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Raptors -

The Raptors aren't getting the same respect that they were just a month ago. Toronto has gone just 5-8 since opening the season 24-7 and during this recent downfall have gone a mere 2-10-1 ATS. I believe it has the Raptors extremely undervalued as a small road favorite against the Pacers.

Indiana comes in off an impressive 106-99 win at Orlando, which saw them shoot a season-best 51.8% from the field. I'm not buying that as anything more than taking advantage of a horrible Magic defense. The Pacers are only shooting 42.9% from the field on the season against opponents that on average have allowed 45.1% shooting. Prior to their hot shooting against Orlando, Indiana had dropped 7 straight and I expect them to return to their losing ways tonight.

Indiana is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points last time out. The Pacers are also a dismal 0-7 ATS this season at home when revenging a loss to an opponent (lost 94-106 at Toronto on Dec. 12). Toronto is 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing against a team that's won only 25% to 40% of their games and 21-4 ATS in their last 25 versus strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. These trends combine to form a DYNAMITE 80% (60-15) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

4* Tulsa/Tulane AAC Game of the Week on Tulsa -

This is a great spot to fade Tulane, as the Green Wave come in off a heartbreaking 55-57 loss at home to Memphis on Saturday. Tulane ended up covering as 5.5-point underdogs, but were fortunate to do so after trailing by 9 with less than 10 minutes to play. Prior to that loss the Green Wave got rolled at home 52-66 by SMU.

Tulsa had an opposite result in their last game, as they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread in a 66-64 win at East Carolina. I look for that near loss to serve as motivation for the Golden Hurricane, who have won 9 straight.

Outside of their surprising upset at Memphis back on Jan. 3, Tulane's three other conference wins have come against bottom feeders East Carolina, USF and Houston. They needed overtime to escape with a 56-51 win at USF and barely scraped by with a 3-point victory against the Cougars. I just don't think the Green Wave are anywhere close to as good as this line would indicate, as I think Tulsa will have no problem winning here by double-digits.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tulane. Home underdogs that have played 3 straight games where both teams failed to surpass 70 points are 12-43 ATS over the last 5 years against opponents who scored 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games. That's a strong 78% system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa!

4* Texas/Iowa State NCAAB Vegas Insider on Iowa State -

This is a great spot to back the Cyclones at home as a relatively small favorite. Both teams come in off disappointing losses on Saturday, Iowa State fell 73-78 as a 10-point road favorite at Texas Tech, while Texas lost 62-75 as a 4-point home favorite to rival Kansas.

I look for the Cyclones to have the much easier time bouncing back, especially with this game being played at home, where Iowa State is a perfect 10-0 on the season, which includes wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State inside conference play.

It's also important to note that the home team has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Each of the Longhorns last two trips to Hilton Coliseum have not ended well, losing 62-82 in 2013 and 76-85 last season. Texas is 2-1 on the road in the Big 12, but they lost 58-69 at Oklahoma State and their two wins came against lowly Texas Tech and TCU.

The Longhorns are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers a game at least 15+ games into the season and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 versus teams that attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game. Iowa State on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorites of 6 points or less and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 versus teams that have won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (48-13) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +

The Bluejays continue to be undervalued due to the fact they are still without a win in conference play at 0-7. While their season may be lost, I expect Creighton to continue to give everything they have to get that first Big East win. The Bluejays had little trouble covering last time out, as they lost 61-64 at Butler as a 9-point underdog.

I'm not by any means expecting Creighton to win on the road at Villanova, but they should have no problem covering the massive spread that's been placed on this matchup. The Wildcats are coming in off a crushing 58-78 loss at Georgetown that has to have them second-guessing themselves a little bit.

Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 16 or more assists/game, while the Wildcats are just 18-39 ATS in their last 57 after playing 2 straight on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Villanova. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last game against an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games are 7-27 ATS since 1997. That's a 79% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Pacers/Magic UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. The Magic come into this game ranked 24th in scoring at 95.7 ppg and the Pacers are 27th at 94.7 ppg. We are simply getting an inflated total here due to Orlando having gone OVER the total in each of their last 7 games, including each of their last two with totals of 209 and 206.5.

You have to go all the way back to March of 2010 to find the last time these two teams played a game with a combined score of at least 209 points. Each of their last 20 games in the series have finished below the mark set for this game, including an earlier matchup this season which saw a combined score of just 181 points.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Magic's last 17 games played on Sunday and 87-2 in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 14-3-1 in the Pacers' last 18 games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this a strong system. UNDER is 24-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points when you have an average team that is +/- 3 ppg differential (Pacers) against a poor team with a -3 to -7 ppg differential, that trailed in their last 2 games by 10 or more at the half. That's a 83% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Heat/Bulls NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

Just as I expected, the Bulls carried over the momentum from their 104-81 blowout win at home of the Spurs on Thursday with a 102-98 win at Dallas the next night. I look for Chicago to maintain their renewed focus on the defensive end against the Heat, which should have this game finishing well below the mark.

Slowing down Miami doesn't figure to be too difficult a task, as the Heat have failed scored fewer than 90 points in each of their last 3 games and have topped 100 just once in their last 11 games. It's also worth noting that Miami plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and Chicago doesn't figure to be pushing the tempo here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

These two teams played back in the middle of December and combined for just 168 points in a 93-75 Bulls wins at Miami. It was the third straight in the series that finished with 183 or less combined score.

UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in the Heat's 10 games played in the month of January and 13-4 in their last 17 games played as a road underdog. UNDER is also 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 home games with a total set between 185 and 189.5 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (38-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* American Athletic Game of the Week on Memphis -

The fact that Memphis is favored by 4 says a lot, as the Tigers lost at home to Tulane 66-74 back on Jan. 3. The books have made it pretty clear that loss was a fluke and that Memphis will get their revenge on the road against the Green Wave. Prior to that loss to Tulane, the Tigers had won 22 straight in the series.

Not only is Memphis going to come into this game out for revenge, they are going to be extremely motivated to bounce back from an ugly 55-73 defeat at Tulsa last time out. The key here is that the Tigers have thrived in this situation. Memphis is 52-5 in their last 57 games off a SU loss, which includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 off a loss by 10 or more points. The Tigers are also 20-7-1 ATS in their 28 when playing with same-season revenge.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a loss by 10 or more points against an opponent that scored 55 or less in their last game are 45-18 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tigers! Take Memphis!

4* Pistons/Bucks NBA Heavy Hitter on Pistons -

Detroit has quietly been playing some of the best basketball of any team in the league over the last month. The Pistons are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS since the day after Christmas and are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite against the slumping Bucks. Milwaukee has dropped two straight, both at home, to the Raptors and Jazz.

One of the big keys here is that Detroit will be playing with double-revenge, as they lost 86-98 at Milwaukee on Nov. 25 and 88-104 at home on Nov. 28. The important thing to keep in mind is that both of those two losses came prior to the Pistons getting rid of Josh Smith, which coincided with their current 12-3 run.

Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Milwaukee on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. These trends combine to from a sizzling 81% (17-4) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

5* NCAAB ATS No Brainer Game of the Month on Middle Tenn -

This is a great price to back the Blue Raiders at home against a Charlotte team that has really been struggling to get anything going. The 49ers have lost two straight and 6 of their last 8 overall, which has coincided with the absence of head coach Alan Major, who had to take an indefinite leave due to health reasons.

While Charlotte is in the midst of a slump, Middle Tennessee has won 4 of their last 5, including an impressive 68-58 home win over Old Dominion as a 2-point dog in their last contest. The Blue Raiders improved to 8-2 SU and 6-2 ATS at home. Middle Tennessee's strong play at home and the 49ers without a sense of direction, is a big reason why I think we are getting such great value here with the Blue Raiders laying just 3-points. It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee won by 22 points (71-49) at Charlotte last season.

49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, while the Blue Raiders are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Blue Raiders. Take Middle Tennessee!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Michigan +

The Eagles are showing some great value here as a 6-point underdog against in-state rival Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan has won 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 overall in the series and are simply being undervalued here due to having failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.

This is a classic example of strength against strength, as the Chippewas come in 3rd in the country in scoring at 85.1 ppg, while Eastern Michigan is 30th in scoring defense allowing just 59.3 ppg. I'm a defensive guy and I look for the Eagles intensity on that side of the ball to not only allow them to stay close enough to cover, but win this game outright. The key here is that Central Michigan's defense is giving up 75.4 ppg inside MAC play, so Eastern Michigan is going to be able to put up points.

The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after scoring 65 or less in 3 straight games, while the Chippewas are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse from the field and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Eastern Michigan!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -

This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nuggets, who come into tonight's contest having dropped 4 straight, but this is a perfect spot to back Denver and fade the Celtics. The Nuggets are going to be extremely motivated at home to put an end to their losing streak, while Boston is in a horrible scheduling spot.

The Celtics come in off a highly contested 90-89 win at Portland last night and now face the difficult task of going to play in one of thin air of Denver on no rest. Adding to this is the fact that the win over the Blazers isn't all that impressive given Portland's injury problems right now. Prior to that win, Boston had lost 4 of their last 5 and each of their previous 3 by at least 9 points. It's also worth noting that while Boston is going to be tired, Denver comes in on a full 2 days of rest.

History is also on our side in this one. Denver has won 5 straight at home with their last loss to the Celtics at the Pepsi Center coming back in 2009. The smallest margin of victory for Denver during their home winning streak against Boston is 7-points and the last time they hosted the Celtics they won by 31 (129-98).

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points against an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 90 or fewer points are 46-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a mere 7-point favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pelicans absolutely destroyed Minnesota in their previous meeting this season, winning 139-91 at home. New Orleans simply isn't getting a lot of respect from the books right now, due to the fact that they are just 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS over their last 9 games.

The Pelicans are coming in off a 96-80 home win over the Lakers as a 7-point favorite, while Minnesota is fresh off an 80-105 loss at Charlotte on Monday and 75-98 home loss to the Mavs on Wednesday. This is a game New Orleans can't afford to lose given how competitive things are in the Western Conference. Minnesota on the other hand is struggling to stay focused at this point in the season and I'm not expecting a great effort here from the Timberwolves, who are just 3-16 at home this season.

The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Friday. Minnesota on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 3-8 ATS after failing to cover last time out.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites that have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, who have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for this one. These two teams combined for just 192 points in New York back on Nov. 12 and that's the same kind of outcome I'm expecting to see tonight. This line has simply been inflated due to the Magic going OVER the total in 6 straight, including a 246 combined score in their last game against Detroit.

The key here is that the Magic's last 6 games have come against the likes of the Blazers, Bulls, Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder and Pistons, who are all very capable offensive teams. The Knicks are not anywhere close to being a good offensive team, as they come in averaging 92.8 ppg. Only the 76ers at 90.1 ppg average fewer. New York hasn't topped the century mark since late December (11 straight games) and have seen the UNDER go 16-5 in their 21 home games.

It's also worth mentioning that neither of these teams like to play at a frantic pace. In fact, the Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league at 92.6, while Orlando is 16th at 96.1. With the game being played at New York and the Knicks well rested (just 2nd game in last 4 days), I look for them to control the tempo, which should have this one finishing well below the mark.

UNDER is 13-5 in the Magic's last 18 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 16-6 in their last 22 road games with a total set above 200 points, and 15-2 in their last 17 road games when they come having lost at least 8 of their last 10. UNDER is 12-3 in Knicks last 15 at home, and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 78% (61-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Portland State +

We are getting some great value here with the Vikings as a decently big road dog against Weber State. Portland State comes in off a solid 85-73 home win over Idaho, while the Wildcats were dealt a 60-70 loss at Southern Utah.

One of things that I like about Portland State is they have played well on the road with a 82-75 win at North Dakota and a mere 5-point loss to Northern Colorado. Weber State on the other hand barely escaped with a 3-point win at home over a horrible Montana State team.

Couple other key factors here is that the Wildcats are not a strong offensive team, which is going to make it hard on them to turn this into a blowout. Weber State only overages 68.0 ppg, compared to Portland State at 73.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Vikings come in shooting the ball extremely well, as they have connected on at least 45% of their attempts in each of their last 4 games. I also like the fact that Portland State takes great care of the basketball. The Vikings have committed 9 or fewer turnovers in 5 of their last 7 games.

We also see that Portland State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after playing 2 straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. Adding to this is a strong system, as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have scored 80 or more in 3 straight games are 32-10 ATS since 1997 in a matchup involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 ppg differential). That's a 76% system in favor of the Vikings. Take Portland State!

4* Bulls/Spurs TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls +

The Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their recent rough stretch, but I'm expecting a big bounce back performance at home in a nationally televised game against the defending champs. I look for Derrick Rose's rant after Chicago's most recent loss at Cleveland to light a fire under this team and have them easily cover this spread. In fact, I like the Bulls to win here outright, but will take the points as insurance.

Another thing playing into this inflated spread on the Spurs, is the fact that San Antonio has won and covered in each of their last 4 games. While two of those came on the road, they barely edged out a 5-point win at Charlotte and defeated the Nuggets by 10, but caught Denver in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall.

Since Thibodeau took over as coach of the Bulls, they have gone 50-33 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 15-4 ATS in the 2nd half against teams that have won 60% to 70% of their games. Take Chicago!

5* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama +

I'll gladly take the points in this one, as I think Alabama has an excellent shot at winning this game outright. The Crimson Tide are simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost their last two, which included an ugly 22-point home loss to Kentucky in their last game.

Losing to Kentucky is nothing to worry about and the other loss was a mere 2-point defeat at South Carolina. Arkansas isn't exactly coming in a positive note either, as the Razorbacks have also dropped their last two. However, Arkansas' two losses have come at Tennessee (69-74) and at home to Ole Miss (82-96). Keep in mind that Alabama won at Tennessee earlier in conference play 56-38.

The Crimson Tide are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games off a home loss and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after going UNDER the total in their last game. Arkansas on the other hand is a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after giving up more than 90 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 72% (55-21) system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

3* NBA Non-Conference ATS Knockout on Kings -

This a great spot to back the Kings, who are going to come out extremely motivated to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. The thing to keep in mind is that three of those losses came against some of the elite teams in the West in the Mavericks, Clippers and Trail Blazers.

I look for Sacramento to have no problem getting back on track against the Nets, who have dropped 8 of their last 9 overall and are still without the services of starting point guard Deron Williams. Without Williams on the floor, Brooklyn has gone a mere 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS this season.

The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, but are being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 1-4 SU during this stretch. Sacramento is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, while Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 78% (29-8) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

5* Big East Game of the Month on Creighton +

The Bluejays are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Bulldogs. Creighton is being way undervalued by the books right now, due to the fact that they are 0-6 inside conference play and are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined games.

There's no question that the Bluejays are going to come out motivated to get their first conference win, while Butler could be in for a bit of a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off two closely contested games against Seton Hall and Georgetown, which had them win by 4 over Seton Hall and lose by 2 at Georgetown. It's going to be hard for Butler to give Creighton their full attention with how poorly they have played of late.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combine points in their last 7 games are 57-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a solid 70% system backing a play on the Bluejays. We also see a strong system suggesting a fade of Butler. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 are just 15-40 ATS since 1997. That's another 73% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

4* Heat/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider on Hornets -

This is a great price to back the Hornets as a relatively small home favorite against the Heat. Charlotte comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 7 of their last 8, with the only loss coming against the Spurs. It's also important to note that all but 1 of their 7 wins during this stretch have come by at least 8 points.

Miami on the other hand is in a difficult spot here, as they will be on no rest after last night's 86-94 home loss to the Thunder. The Heat will also be missing a couple of key players in this one, as Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside are both not expected to play. Tired legs and a couple of key players sidelined, is going to make it extremely difficult for the Heat to keep up with a Hornets team that will be playing their 2nd game in just the last 4 days.

Charlotte already won at home 96-89 back on Nov. 5 and nearly knocked off the Heat on the road on Nov. 23 (lost 93-94). It's also worth adding that Charlotte is 9-3 ATS this season against poor defensive teams that are giving up 46% or better and the Heat are 2-8 ATS this year against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a game that finished UNDER the total against an opponent that has gone UNDER the total in each of their last 6 games are 69-34 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* Memphis/Tulsa AAC Main Event on Tulsa -

The Golden Hurricane are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Tigers. Tulsa comes in having won 7 straight, which includes a perfect 5-0 start to AAC play. The Golden Hurricane have made easy work of their two conference opponents at home, knocking off Houston 72-54 and Connecticut 66-58.

Memphis is simply being overvalued due to a couple of impressive home wins and a easy win on the road against a bad Houston team. The key here is that the Tigers have not played well away from home against quality competition. They lost by 15 to Wichita State and 24 to Baylor on a neutral site and got rolled at SMU by 14 points.

Tulsa is 19-4 ATS in their last 23 conference games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off 4 more consecutive wins and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Memphis on the other hand is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 84% (64-12) system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa!

4* Buffalo/C Michigan MAC Game of the Week on Buffalo +

The Chippewas are getting way too much respect here due to their perfect 9-0 home record. Central Michigan has played an extremely easy schedule, especially on their home floor. The Chippewas lone conference win at home has come against Miami (OH), who is 6-11 on the season. Their other 8 home wins all came in non-conference play against the likes of Alma, Youngstown St, Maine, Ark-Pine Bluff, Grand Canyon, SIU Edwardsville, Concordia, and Central Penn.

Buffalo's only conference loss has come on the road against Western Michigan, who sits on top the MAC West at 3-1 and are 12-5 overall. The big key here is that the Bulls have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Chippewas up-tempo attack and are strong enough defensively to keep Central Michigan from going off.

The Bulls are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against poor defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after scoring 75+ in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Central Michigan on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting. These trends combine to form a 79% (77-20) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo!

5* Spurs/Nuggets Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Spurs to be laying on the road against the Nuggets, but I look for San Antonio to have no problem winning here by at least 10 points. The Spurs are finally starting to get healthy and are a perfect 2-0 since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup with both coming via blowouts. They knocked off Portland at home 110-96 on Friday and came back with a 89-69 win at home over the Jazz on Sunday.

San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off the gas, as they are currently sitting in just 7th place in the Western Conference. While the Spurs are on the upswing, Denver is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Nuggets have lost 3 straight, including an ugly 105-113 home loss to the Timberwolves on Saturday and a 79-122 defeat yesterday at Golden State.

While you could argue that Denver is primed for a bounce back performance, I don't believe that to be the case at all. The Nuggets are in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot, as they not only are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days overall.

Denver is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road loss by more than 10 points, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Spurs are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two straight as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

3* Tennessee/S Carolina SEC Main Event on S Carolina -

The Gamecocks are showing some solid value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. South Carolina is being way undervalued right now, due to the fact they are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS inside conference play. The thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came on the road and the other was at home against the Gators.

Tennessee on the other hand is getting a little too much respect from their 3-1 start to SEC play. While the Volunteers are 2-0 on the road, those two wins have come against the two worst teams in the conference in Mississippi State and Missouri. Tennessee's only other win away from home is a 64-57 victory against Santa Clara on a neutral site. They lost by 16 to VCU, 15 to Kansas and 8 to Marquette all at a neutral site and lost by 11 at NC State in their only other road games. South Carolina's only two home losses have come against the likes of Baylor and Florida by a combined 8-points.

The Gamecocks have a 75-49 home win over Oklahoma State and 68-45 win against Clemson, not to mention and impressive non-conference win over Iowa State on a neutral site. To say South Carolina will be motivated for this game is a major understatement, as they have lost 14 straight to the Volunteers. Thing to keep in mind is that only once during that stretch were the Gamecocks favored and that was by a mere 2-points. For them to be laying 5.5, really says a lot as the public is going to be all over the Volunteers.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tennessee. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by more than 12 points in each of their last two games, in a game involving two quality teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games are 26-61 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!

4* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa +

Iowa is showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Badgers. The Hawkeyes come in off a 76-67 home win over Ohio State, improving to 4-1 inside conference play. Iowa has won each of their last 3 true road games outright as an underdog. They knocked off North Carolina 60-55 as a 7.5-point dog, Ohio State 71-65 as a 7-point dog and Minnesota 77-75 as a 3-point dog. Adding to this is that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

The Badgers come in off an easy 70-55 home win over Nebraska, but are still just two games removed from their 62-67 upset loss at Rutgers as a 15-point favorite. Wisconsin has also been overvalued quite a bit of late, as they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are still without the services of senior point guard Traevon Jackson.

The biggest key here is that Iowa has a history of playing Wisconsin tough. While the Badgers have won each of the last 3 meetings, those 3 wins have come by a combined 13 points, with their largest win by a mere 5-points. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time Wisconsin beat Iowa by more than 8 points. In fact, the Hawkeyes are a dominant 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Badgers.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games on the season, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Wisconsin. Home favorites who are an average 3PT shooting team (32%-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32%-36.5%), dominant rebounding team (+6 or more reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game) are just 37-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on the Bucks +

The Raptors should not be a road favorite against the Bucks tonight. Toronto is in a major slump right now, having lost two straight and 7 of their last 9 overall. Milwaukee comes in off an impressive 95-79 win over the Knicks in London last Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum against the Raptors.

The Bucks are going to have no problem getting motivated for this matchup. Milwaukee suffered one of it's worse losses of the season back in November when they visited Toronto, losing 82-124. The Bucks are an impressive 18-8 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and an even stronger 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points.

Milwaukee is also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers per game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus poor defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. These trends combine to from a 74% (54-19) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Pittsburgh +

Duke is being overvalued here off that impressive 62-52 win at Louisville on Saturday. Prior to that victory the Blue Devils had failed to cover each of their previous 3 and were a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8. No question Duke is the better team in this matchup, but they are prime for a letdown after that loss and 15-points is a lot to cover against a quality team like Pitt inside conference play.

The Panthers come in off back-to-back wins and are a respectable 13-5 overall, but are way undervalued due to the fact that they have gone a miserable 4-11 ATS on the season, including a 1-7 ATS stretch over their last 8 lined games.

Pitt is 33-17 ATS in their last 50 road games when listed as an underdog. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference matchups and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on Monday.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off 3 straight games that finished OVER the total, who are a strong defensive team, allowing 64 or less points/game are 39-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Pittsburgh!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Knicks +

As difficult as it may be to back the Knicks, given their 16-game losing streak, I think this is a great spot for New York to end the skid and cash in an easy cover. New Orleans is coming in off an impressive 96-93 win at Toronto yesterday, but are just 2-6 over their last 8 games, which includes an ugly 81-96 loss at Philadelphia last Friday.

The Pelicans could once again be without the services of their two best players in Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, which certainly increases the Knicks' chances of winning this game outright. Either way this is a tough spot for New Orleans, who not only is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but will be playing their 4th straight road game in the span of just 6 days. The Knicks on the other hand, come in off a full 3-days of rest and are going to come out motivated to win at home and put and end to their awful run.

New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games off a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fwer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Home underdogs off a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing 3 or less games over the last 10 days are 79-41 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 66% long-term system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Virginia Tech +22.5

Virginia Tech is showing great value here as a massive underdog against the Tar Heels. The Hokies aren't going to just lay down here, as they are going to be motivated to get that first conference win. North Carolina on the other hand could have trouble getting motivated for this one. The Tar Heels are coming off a big road game against in-state rival NC State.

Tar Heels are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when they come in having won 8 or more 10 games, while  Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 40 or rebounds/game. 

Adding this is a strong system in play favoring the Hokies. Underdogs of 20 or more points that are averaging 14.5 or fewer turnovers/game against a poor pressure defense that (14.5 turnovers/games) after 15+ games are 59-24 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech!

3* Thunder/Magic NBA Main Event on Thunder -

The Thunder come into this game off a 127-115 home win over Golden State on Friday and I look for OKC to carry over that momentum with a blowout win over the Magic. Orlando comes in off a 10-point loss at home to the Grizzlies and are just 2-7 in their last 9 games. I look for the Thunder to go on a nice run, as they continue to fight to get back into the playoff race in the Western Conference. 

Magic are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games after playing their last game at home and just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. 

Adding to this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a strong offensive team (99+ ppg) that has allowed 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games are 63-29 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* Hawks/Bulls NBA ATS Main Event on Bulls +

I know the Hawks are playing extremely well right now, but they should not be a road favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is every bit as good as Atlanta and will be out to make a statement that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

A key factor here is that while both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, the Hawks are in a more difficult scheduling spot here. Atlanta will be playing their 4th game in the last 5 nights, with all four of those games coming on the road. This is the perfect spot for the Hawks to suffer a letdown, as they get ready to return home for a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against the Hawks. Take the Bulls!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this big of a number with the Pistons at home. Detroit is playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they have won 10 of their last 12, including a thrilling 98-96 win at Indiana last night. 

Philadelphia has also been playing better of late, but the 76ers are in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only did Philadelphia also play last night, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. 

Adding even more value here is the fact we can be confident the Pistons won't be overlooking the 76ers, as they lost at home to Philadelphia 101-108 back on Dec. 6. Detroit was only a 9.5-point favorite in that game and now we see them laying 13. I think the books are begging for action here on the 76ers, knowing that Pistons will win big. 

Pistons are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more. Detroit is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team that's won 40% or less of their games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing with no rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (41-16) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Jacksonville State +

The Gamecocks are showing big time value here as a double-digit dog against the Skyhawks. Jacksonville State is being way undervalued due to a couple of ugly home losses the last two times out against Murray State and SE Missouri State.

Jacksonville State has won each of the last 4 meetings in the series. While both teams return 3 starters from last year, one of those starters that Tenn-Martin returned is senior forward Myles Taylor, who is out with a knee injury. Taylor had 12 points and 6 rebounds in last year's 65-70 loss at Jacksonville State. 

The Gamecocks have thrived in the roll of the underdog, especially on the road. Jacksonville State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games when listed as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Gamecocks are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 road games when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3 and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games after playing their last 2 at home. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Skyhawks. Home favorites off an upset conference win against an opponent of 2 straight home losses of 10 or more points are just 14-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take Jacksonville State!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS No Brainer on St Louis +

The Billikens are showing some exceptional value here as a massive road dog against Dayton. The Flyers are being way overvalued by the books right now due to the fact that they have won 7 straight overall and covered each of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6. 

St Louis will be coming into this contest with a lot of confidence after an impressive 78-69 home win over Duquesne last time out. The Billikens will be out to prove themselves against one of the top teams in the A-10. The Flyers on the other hand could have a difficult time getting up for this game, due to their recent success and the fact that they have a huge road game against Davidson on deck Tuesday. 

Dayton is 0-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of each of their last 2 games and 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shot attempts per game. It's also worth noting that St Louis is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive games that finished OVER the total. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points off 2 or more consecutive overs, who are a poor offensive team, averaging 64 or less points per game are 178-110 ATS since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Billikens. Take St Louis!

3* N Illinois/E Michigan MAC Game of the Week on N Illinois +

The Huskies are showing some great value here as a decent sized road dog against the Eagles. While Northern Illinois will likely be without the services of Darrell Bowie for a fourth straight game (questionable), they are more than capable of keeping it close against Eastern Michigan and potentially winning this game outright. 

The Eagles aren't exactly playing their best basketball right now. Eastern Michigan has yet to win inside the MAC (0-3), which includes a couple of losses to a couple of below average teams in Ball State and Miami (OH). 

Another key factor here is that these two teams have historically played close games. Each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 8-points or less. The Huskies are also a strong 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Eastern Michigan. 

Northern Illinois is 12-2-3 ATS in their last 17 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. The Eagles are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-3 ATS in their 3 conference games. These trends combine to form a 83% (24-5) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Blazers OVER

This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams this season and both of the previous matchups have seen plenty of offense. The Spurs and Blazers combined for 203 points in Portland back on Dec. 15 and a few days later combined for 248 in a triple-overtime thriller at San Antonio. Adding to this is that 8 of the last 10 in the series have seen at least 200 points scored.

A big key here is that the Spurs are expected to get back a big piece of their offense, as Kawhi Leonard is upgraded as probable. Leonard hasn't played since Dec. 15 and is San Anotonio's leading scorer at 15.2 ppg. 

Portland comes in averaging 105.1 ppg on the road and are giving up 100.6 ppg, while the Spurs are averaging 106.8 ppg at home and allowing 101.8 ppg. With the Spurs getting back one of their top scorers and Portland coming in with fresh legs (just their 2nd game in the last 5 days), I look for both teams to eclipse the century mark as this one flies over the total.

OVER is 4-0 in the Trail Blazers last 4 games played on Friday. It's also 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 home games against teams who average 53+ rebounds/game, 4-0 in their 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-0 in their last 4 versus the Northwest Division. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (19-0) system. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Siena +

The Saints are showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Griffins. Canisius comes in not playing their best basketball. The Griffins have lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during this stretch coming against lowly Marist, who is 0-6 in the MAAC and 1-15 overall. While Siena lost last time out at home against Fairfield, the Saints have won 3 of their last 5.

One of the things that I like here is that the Saints have played the Griffins tough in each of their last two meetings. They lost 88-92 at home in overtime and 65-71 in the MAAC Tournament. Canisius only has 1 starter back from last year, while the Siena has 3 starters back, including their star in senior guard Rob Poole, who is averaging 14.8 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Canisius is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game as a road underdog and 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a road game where both teams scored 75+ points. Siena is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Saints. Take Siena!

4* Hawks/Raptors NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors -

While the Hawks come in on impressive 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS runs, I think the value here is with the Raptors as a pick'em at home. Toronto is just 2-5 over their last 7 games, but come in off an impressive 16-point home win over the 76ers, which also marked the return of All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan after a 21-game absence. DeRozan wasn't rusty at all, scoring 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and 3 assists.

The key thing you have to keep in mind here is that the Raptors were the talk of the Eastern Conference when DeRozan was healthy to start the year. Toronto opened up 13-2 prior to DeRozan getting hurt in a 102-106 loss at Dallas. That strong start included two wins over the Hawks (109-102 at home and 126-115 at Atlanta). It's also worth noting that the Raptors are now 9-1 at home with a healthy DeRozan, compared to 7-4 without him in the lineup from start to finish.

Another big key here is rest. While Toronto will be playing their 5th straight at home and haven't played on consecutive days since late December. Atlanta on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road in the span of just 4 days. Take Toronto!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Belmont +

We are getting exceptional value here with the Bruins catching double-digits against the Racers. Oddsmakers have inflated this line in favor of Murray State, who comes in having won 11 straight overall and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 lined games. Adding to the value here is the fact that Belmont has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games, including a 11-point loss at Eastern Illinois as a 4-point favorite last time out.

The thing you have to keep in mind with that loss to Eastern Illinois, is the fact that the Bruins shot a miserable 37.5%, while the Panthers connected on 59.3% of their attempts. There's a good chance Belmont isn't going to be that bad from the field in back-to-back games and I expect max effort defensively after allowing a team to almost shoot 60% from the field.

It's also worth noting that Murray State's strong 3-0 start in conference play, has come against some weak competition in Morehead State, Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 3-9 in the Ohio Valley.

The other key here is the recent history between these two teams have resulted in closely contested games. Adding to this is the fact that Belmont swept the season series a year ago, winning 99-96 at home as a 8-point dog and 70-68 at Murray State as a 7.5-point dog.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Murray State. Favorites at least 15 games into the season, that have held each of their last 4 opponents under 40% shooting, who are shooting 47.5% or better on the season against a team that is allowing 42.5% to 45% are just 21-51 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont!

4* Thunder/Rockets NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Thunder +

This may seem like a favorable line to back the Rockets at home, but I think the value here is clearly with Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this contest off a full 5-days of rest and are clearly not getting a lot of respect right now after failing to cover the spread in each of their last 6 games.

The big key here is that while Oklahoma City is coming off a much needed extended break, the Rockets are in a tough scheduling spot. Houston just played last night at Orlando, which they surprisingly loss 113-120 as a 9-point favorite. Not only will the Rockets being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.

This game clearly means more to the Thunder who at 18-19 are in desperate need of a big run to get back in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City will also be out for revenge from a 4-point home loss back in November.

All of this sets up a huge system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss, who are playing just their 3rd game in 10 days are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wofford -

The Terriers have owned this series, winning 15 of the last 16 meetings, including a 77-56 beatdown of Citadel the last time they traveled to McAlister Field House. Wofford comes in having won 4 straight and with a win can secure their best start to a season in over 20 years.

While both of the Terriers two road wins inside conference play against Samford and Chattanooga have come by 4-points or less, I'm confident Wofford will win here by double-digits. The Bulldogs two conference wins have come against a couple off bottom feeders. They come in off a 23-points loss at Mercer and lost to Chattanooga by 19 at home in their conference opener.

Both of these teams shoot the ball extremely well. Wofford is hitting on 45.5% of their attempts and Citadel is shooting 45.7%. The key here is the Terriers defense. Wofford is only allowing opponents to make 43.1% of their attempts and are strong at defending the 3-pointer. The Terriers are allowing opponents to hit just 29.7% from long-distance, which is key here as the Bulldogs offense relies heavily on the 3-pointer (hitting 40.5%).

Wofford is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 off a win by 10 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record at least 16 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 81% (46-11) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +

Creighton has lost 5 straight overall and 7 in a row against the spread. The public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now, which has forced the books to inflate this line in favor of Marquette, who has covered in each of their last two and are 10-5 ATS overall.

I think the value here is with Creighton, who at 0-4 in the Big East are going to be laying everything on the line to get their first conference win. The Bluejays showed signs of life in their 67-68 loss at home to Seton Hall last time out. Creighton shot 51.1% from the field after 4 straight games at 35.8% or worse. I look for the Bluejays to build off that performance and give Marquette all they can handle. The Golden Eagles are just 1-2 in conference play and just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 against fellow Big East opponents.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Blue Jays. Road underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered in 8 or more of their last 10 are 30-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

3* Wizards/Bulls ESPN Main Event on Bulls -

The Bulls haven't been playing up to their potential here of late and come in off an ugly 114-121 home loss to the Magic. I think that loss to Orlando combined with their recent 86-102 defeat at Washington last Friday, is going to have Chicago coming out with one of their best performances of the season.

The Wizards certainly aren't going to back down, but this is a real tough spot for them. Washington laid everything on the line against the Bulls last Friday, they then had to go to Atlanta to take on the surging Hawks Sunday and returned home to face the Spurs last night. Now they have to travel to Chicago to face a pissed off Bulls team that is working on a full day of rest. I just don't see Washington having the energy here to keep this one close.

Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the spread last time out, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on Wednesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 0 days of rest.

There's also a strong system that backs the Bulls off that ugly loss to the Magic. Teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or points, are 34-11 ATS since 1996 in a game involving two strong teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games. That's a 76% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on George Mason +

I think we are getting some great value here with George Mason listed as a road dog against the St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have dropped 4 of their last 5, including a 41-60 road loss at Richmond last time out.

While George Mason has also dropped two straight, they have at least been competitive with a 10-point loss at Richmond and 4-point defeat to UMass. The Patriots had also covered 5 straight prior to losing their last two. It's also worth noting that George Mason has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Backing the Patriots on the road has been a wise investment over recent seasons. George Mason is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference home loss.

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 68-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason!

4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Charleston +

This may seem like a favorable line to take Elon at home. The Phoenix are a respectable 10-7 overall and 2-2 inside CAA. Charleston on the other hand is a mere 5-12 overall and 0-4 inside CAA. However, I don't think there's as big a gap in talent as these records would indicate. Elon has played the much easier schedule and I think it has them overvalued.

The fact that Charleston is still winless in the conference adds even more value here. We can expect max effort here from the Cougars and you have to like the fact that they have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the only loss being a 98-99 overtime defeat at Elon.

It's also worth noting that Charleston has a strong history as a road underdog. The Cougars are 63-36 (64%) in their last 99 road games when listed as an underdog or pick'em. Adding to this is the fact that Elon is a mere 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game.

We also find a strong system in play. Road teams who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 145-90 ATS in the month of January since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Cougars. Take Charleston!

5* Miami/Duke ACC Game of the Month on Miami +

The first instinct when a team like Duke gets upset, is that they are going automatically going to come out an play their best game the next time out. I know the Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back conference games in nearly 6 seasons, but they are being way overvalue here on the spread against a Miami team that is capable of winning this game outright.

The Hurricanes are 11-4 overall and just nearly upset undefeated Virginia at home in their ACC opener, losing in double-overtime. Miami bounced back with a 60-56 win over BC and I look for them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. It's a lot different going into a game off a loss, especially after going this far into the year undefeated.

It's also worth noting that Miami has a history of playing well at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While the Hurricanes are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 visits they have 3-losses by exactly 3-points and their largest defeat during this stretch was 11-points and they were a 19-point underdog in that contest.

Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Duke. Hurricanes are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games against a top caliber team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game at least 15 games in to the season, 29-12 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points and 12-2 over their last 14 when listed as a road underdog or pick'em. These trends combine to form a 72% (77-30) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* Spurs/Wizards NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Wizards -

Washington is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Spurs. The Wizards are going to be extremely motivated off that ugly 31-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday and will also be out for revenge. Washington lost 92-101 at San Antonio back on Jan. 3.

The Wizards are being undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 7, but the key thing to note is that all of those losses came on the road. Just prior to losing at Atlanta, Washington rolled the Bulls 102-86 at home. The Wizards are and impressive 16-4 at home overall, while the Spurs are a mere 10-9 on the road.

San Antonio is going to go on a run at some points, but I don't see them really taking off until Kawhi Leonard returns from injury. Spurs are also without Aaron Baynes and could be missing both Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli, who are both listed as questionable.

Washington is 25-11 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss where the opponents scored 100 or more points and a 3-0-1 in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Spurs on the other hand are 2-6 ATS after a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Michigan/Ohio State NCAAB Main Event on Michigan +

This is way too many points for a rivalry game like this. Michigan has won each of the last 3 meetings and only once in the last 6 meetings have the Buckeyes won by more than double-digits. Let's not forget Ohio State just won the CFB National Championship, I wouldn't be shocked if the home fans weren't quite as rowdy as normal.

I just don't think Buckeyes will have the same energy as you typically would expect playing at home in this rivalry. Michigan on the other hand isn't going to take lightly to being a big underdog against a team they haven't lost to in two years. I also don't think there's a whole lot that separates these two teams talent wise. Ohio State has the better record, but Michigan has played the tougher schedule.

It's also important to note that the Buckeyes come in off a 66-69 road loss to Indiana. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 years when they come into a game off a road loss. Buckeyes are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall against the Big Ten and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* Pelicans/Celtics NBATV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

This is a great spot to back the Pelicans as a small road favorite against the Celtics. Boston just made another big trade that sent their leading scorer in Jeff Green to Memphis. The chemistry with this Celtics team can't be good right now as they continue to have players coming and going.

New Orleans isn't going to care what the situation is for Boston. The Pelicans are on a mission to start off their 5-game road trip against the Eastern Conference with a win and I look for them to have no problem covering this small spread. New Orleans just has too much talent, especially inside with Anthony Davis, for Boston to overcome.

The Pelicans are just 18-18 overall and 6-13 on the road, but this is a team that would be near the top of the standings if they were playing in the East instead of the West. The fact that New Orleans comes in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3, sets them up in a favorable spot.

The Pelicans are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when they fail to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Boston on the other hand is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Lakers +

The Lakers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. LA won 101-84 at home as a mere 2.5-point favorite last time out. While they are just 4-8 SU over their last 12 games, they are a solid 9-3 ATS during this same stretch, including 3 straight covers at home.

One of the big keys here is the Lakers catch Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers will be on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home and are simply being overvalued here due to having the much better overall record.

Lakers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the Western Conference, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent comes in after scoring 100+ in their last game and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 90% (18-2) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

4* Florida St/Syracuse NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Florida St +

I like the value we are getting here with the Seminoles as a double-digit underdog against the Orange. Florida state opened up conference play with an impressive 86-75 home win over Virginia Tech and have won 5 of their last 6 overall.

While Syracuse comes in having won 5 straight, they are fortunate to not be sitting 0-2 inside the ACC. The Orange won 68-66 at Virginia Tech and 46-45 at Georgia Tech. Don't read into last year's 74-58 road win for Syracuse over the Seminoles. The Orange are down by their standards this season and are struggling to get going offensively. Syracuse shot just 39% from the field against the Hokies and only 34.6% versus the Yellow Jackets. I look for that poor shooting to carry over against Florida State, which is going to make it difficult for the Orange to win here by double-digits.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Seminoles. Underdogs in a game involving 2 poor 3-point shooting teams (32% or worse) at least 15 games into the season and off a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 45-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!