4* ACC ATS Bloodbath on Syracuse -

Syracuse struggled down the final stretch of the regular season, but they have had plenty of time to regroup coming into the conference tournament. I think they are at a huge advantage playing with four full days of rest, while NC State is playing in a back-to-back situation after squeaking by Miami in the opening round yesterday. The Orange may have lost four of their last six games, but it is important to remember those are the only four losses the team suffered all season.

The biggest advantage Syracuse has in this matchup is its outstanding zone defense. The Orange have held opponents to a mere 59.3 points per game this season, a feat that gives them the country's ninth ranked scoring defense. These teams met once this season and it was Syracuse that walked away with a win. That win may have been by a slim margin, but a big reason for that can be credited to the fact that the Orange were coming off a close road win over longtime rival Pitt in the game just three days prior.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Syracuse. You should play on neutral court favorites like the Orange when they are coming off two or more consecutive overs and they are facing an opponent coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies favorites that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 65-34 (66%) ATS system.

3* Big Ten Main Event on Wisconsin -

Wisconsin is clearly the better team and laying such a small number clearly puts the value on the Badgers. Wisconsin finished the regular season by winning eight of its nine final games. They have had four days to rest and prepare for tournament play, and that will be a big advantage going up against a Minnesota team that is playing in a back-to-back situation. College teams do not play on back-to-back nights very often, and I don't think the Gophers will be conditioned well enough to compete with a top tier team like Wisconsin when playing in this situation.

These teams met twice during the regular season and Wisconsin picked up a win in the most recent meeting. The biggest advantage the Badgers have is a scoring defense that has surrendered just 64.2 points per game this season. The offense is averaging 73.1 points per game and the Badgers are poised to easily match that number against the Gophers soft defense. Minnesota has surrendered 71.9 points per game when playing away from home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Michigan +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Western Michigan comes into this game with two less losses than Akron, and they have a statistically significant advantage on both ends of the court. They also have a better conference record at 14-4 to 13-6 from the Zips.

Offensively Western Michigan averages 71.9 points per game. They are up against an Akron defense that has surrendered 72.5 points per game when playing away from home this season. On the defensive side of things Western Michigan is surrendering a mere 67.4 points per game overall, and it should be easy to match that number since Akron is not a high scoring team with 68.1 points scored per game.

Western Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 games coming into this game. They are averaging 77.4 points per game over their last five games, and it is their explosive offense that makes them an easy call over Akron. We will take the points, but I expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

5* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on VCU -

This is a perfect spot to jump on VCU. Richmond is playing undermanned right now with the injury to leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay. While the Spiders were able to come away with an impressive 76-64 win over Duquesne in their A-10 tournament opener, that didn't come as a huge surprise. Richmond beat Duquesne by 17-points on the road without Linsay back on Feb. 12. While the Spiders only lost by 6-points at home to VCU recently (March 6), the Rams didn't show up until the second half of that game.

I look for the score to be a lot more lopsided this time around. VCU isn't going to take Richmond likely after almost losing to them. Another big key here is the Spiders are playing on no rest, while VCU is fresh off a 5-day layoff. That pressure defense that the Rams rely so much on should be at its finest and I expect it to lead to an easy double-digit win.

Richmond is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team that has won 60% or more of their games. VCU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Atlantic 10 No Brainer on St Joseph's -

The Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Atlantic 10 and I think they easily get past the Flyers today. Dayton has not performed well on the road this season. They are scoring 73.6 points per game, but the defense has surrendered 72 points per game. St Joseph's on the other hand comes into this matchup holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on the road and 67.8 points per game overall. In a game with a single point line that is a very statistically significant difference in scoring defense.

Another key factor for today's game will be free throws. The Hawks are a very smart team averaging just 16 personal fouls per game, and sending opponents to the free throw line for an average of 18 attempts per game. Dayton on the other hand has a lot of problems getting into foul trouble. They average 23 personal fouls per game when playing on the road, and their opponents have averaged 28 free throw attempts in those games. Those extra attempts from the line will prove to be a big factor in a game that is projected to be close, and it gives the Hawks a significant advantage.

The Dayton Flyers have not performed well against slow-down teams like the Hawks. They are 14-28 against the spread against teams averaging 53 or less shot attempts per game after 15 or more games on the season. St Josephs secured a first round bye and they are well rested coming into this matchup. The Hawks are coming off a loss to La Salle to end the regular season and they are 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.

5* No Doubt Rout of the Year on Virginia -

I don't think Florida State is worthy of playing in this quarterfinals matchup against Virginia, and the Cavaliers should have no problem picking up a double-digit win. These teams met twice during the regular season and the Cavaliers picked up a 12-point win in both of those games. Playing on a neutral court does not help the Seminoles since they could not even keep the game within single digits when playing at home.

The Virginia Cavaliers have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country. They have held opponents to a mere 55.4 points per game. Florida State is not a high scoring team to begin with averaging just 68 points per game when playing away from home. Virginia also enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country having won 13 of its last 14 games.

Florida State is a team that buckles under the pressure of playing a quality opponent. The Seminoles are 2-13 ATS versus teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game this year. Virginia is also well rested since they secured a first round bye in the tournament. They are 13-3 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.

4* C-USA Tournament Vegas Insider on Louisiana Tech -

The Bulldogs should have no problem covering this large spread against Charlotte. Louisiana Tech destroyed the 49ers 80-60 in the only regular season meeting. Keep in mind that Charlotte had a full 4 days to prepare for that game. This time around they must face the Bulldogs on no rest, as they had to play UAB yesterday.

Louisiana Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons, while the 49ers are a dreadful 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games at least 15 games into the season versus an opponent who is outscoring the opposition by 8+ points/game. The Bulldogs are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pressure defenses that forced 14 or fewer turnovers/game and have have won these contest by an average of 16.4 ppg.

3* No Doubt Rout on Texas -

The Longhorns are an easy call in this matchup with West Virginia. Texas has been underrated all season long, and playing on a neutral court takes away any advantage West Virginia would have had over the Longhorns. The Mountaineers struggled on the road this season with a 6-9 record, and only three of those road wins came during conference play, and they happened to come against three of the worst teams in the Big 12.

Texas has a huge rebounding matchup over the Mountaineers. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in rebounds per game with 41.8, and those extra rebounds will translate to extra shot attempts. Both of these teams have put up similar shooting percentages from the field, so I think those extra rebounds and shot attempts will be a huge factor in this game. Texas has also been a very good ball control team this season committing just 12 turnovers per game on average.

These teams met twice this season and Texas picked up a 2-0 sweep over West Virginia. When playing on the Mountaineers home court the Longhorns won by 11 points. Playing at home Texas picked up a dominating 17 point win. This is a neutral court matchup, but I expect the end result to easily land somewhere between those two prior games. Texas has a 22-9 record this season and they have faced a total of nine ranked teams. The Longhorns might be the biggest sleeper in the Big 12, and they will have no problem getting past the Mountaineers today.

3* AAC Tournament Main Event on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats earned the No. 1 seed in the American Athletic Tournament, but aren't getting a whole lot of respect. Oddsmakers listed Louisville as the overwhelming favorite and even Memphis had better odds to win the tournament. This can't be sitting well with Cincinnati and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make a big time statement with a blowout win over a pretty bad UCF team.

The Knights won a dogfight yesterday against Temple 94-90 and I just don't see them being able to match the Bearcat's energy in this one. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country and should be playing with a lot of energy on that side of the ball with a full 4 days of rest.

The important thing to note is that Cincinnati won both meetings during the regular season by more than the spread listed. They won 69-51 at home and 77-49 at UCF. This is clearly not a good matchup for the Knights and I expect this to get ugly rather quickly.

UCF is just 2-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field this season and have lost these contests by an average of 14.5 ppg. The Knights are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that has won more than 60% of their games. Cincinnati is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 5 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral site. Combined this adds up to a 76% system in favor of the Bearcats.

5* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV -

This may be the Mountain West Tournament, but it is a home game for UNLV. There is not a lot of travel for the Rebels, while the Cowboys make the trek to Las Vegas as heavy underdogs. Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. They average a mere 57.5 points per game when playing on the road or in a neutral court game, and they are facing a UNLV team that is averaging 72 points per game on the season.

The Rebels are an outstanding team defensively. They have held opponents to just 65.1 points per game at home this season. Against this Cowboys team that struggles on the road they should easily improve on that number. The Cowboys will also be without Larry Nance who happens to be the team's leading scorer. The Cowboys would struggle against the Rebels with Nance, but without him this matchup will be a double-digit blowout.

Wyoming is struggling coming into the conference tournament. They have lost four of their last five games straight up, and they have lost five of their last six games against the spread. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the bar high enough without Nance in the lineup for the Cowboys, so that is a trend that should continue today. Lay the points with the Rebels because they should win this game in a blowout.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back when playing away from home this season. They have posted a 10-6 ATS record in road games. CS-Fullerton on the other hand has been a great team to fade away from home, posting a 4-10 ATS record.

The value in this matchup is on Long Beach State laying the points. They are going up against a Fullerton defense that has surrendered 73.8 points per game on the road this season. The 49ers also have a big advantage on the boards. They average 37 rebounds per game, with 12 coming on the offensive glass. Fullerton on the other hand averages only 34 rebounds per game (-1 rebounding margin) with a mere nine boards coming on the offensive glass.

Long Beach State is 65-39 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing against a team with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has an 8-16 ATS record against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game. The 49ers come into this matchup averaging a mere 12 turnovers per game. Long Beach State is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last six games, while CS-Fullerton has lost two consecutive coming into tournament play.

3* American Athletic Afternoon Annihilator on Louisville -

Louisville comes into today's showdown with Rutgers on a full 4 days of rest, while the Scarlet Knights have a quick turnaround from victory yesterday against South Florida. The Cardinals closed out the regular season 9-1 over their final 10 games and finished with a 33-point statement win over Connecticut. This is a lot of points to be laying, but there's a big enough gap in talent that Louisville should win here by 20+ rather easily. While the Cardinals won just 83-76 at Rutgers in the first meeting, they destroyed the Scarlet Knights 102-54 in the second meeting at home.

When Louisville is rolling is typically a good idea to jump on the bandwagon. The Cardinals 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games off a conference win, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a 4-1 record over their last 5 and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a home win. This is also the time of the season where Louisville shines. The Cardinals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in the month of March. It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games played on a neural site.

5* Conference Tournament No Brainer on San Diego State -

The Aztecs closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak, including a thrilling 51-48 come from behind win over New Mexico in the finale to give them the outright Mountain West title. I look for No. 8 ranked San Diego State to carry over that momentum with a convincing win over Utah State. While this will be the Aztecs first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Aggies had to play Colorado State yesterday. No rest is bad news for Utah State against a top notch team like San Diego State.

The Aztecs won both meetings during the regular season, winning 74-69 on the road and 60-45 at home. San Diego State should have no trouble winning here by double-digits, so don't worry about the 8-point spread.

While the Aggies come in having won three straight, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 3 or more consecutive wins against conference opponents. Utah State is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field.

San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.

5* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Pitt -

The Pitt Panthers might be the biggest sleeper in the ACC and I don't think they will have any problem getting past Wake Forest today. This is a neutral court matchup which plays heavily in the Panthers favor since the Demon Deacons are 3-11 when playing away from home this season. Against conference opponents Wake Forest has averaged a mere 66.4 points per game, and when playing on the road or a neutral court that average dips down to 65.9 points per game.

Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the conference. They have held opponents to a mere 62.5 points per game this season. The team ranks 23rd in the country in scoring defense. On the offensive end of the court Pitt should have no problem putting up a big number. The Demon Deacons have surrendered 76.5 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Pitt after one or more consecutive overs and their opponent has gone over the total three or more consecutive times. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the favorite. It has resulted in a 121-68 (64%) record against the spread. When the favorite is coming off two or more consecutive overs the system tightens up to 64-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* A-10 Tournament Play of the Day on Dayton -

The Flyers have been a team on a mission down the stretch. Dayton is 9-1 since Feb. 1 and are an impressive 7-3 ATS during this run. Don't be fooled by Fordham's 70-67 upset win over George Mason in the opening round of the A-10 Tournament. The Rams had lost 8 straight prior to that victory and six of those losses came by double-digits. In the lone meeting between these two teams this season, Dayton won 80-68 at Fordham, which leaves plenty of reason to believe they can win on a neutral setting by 11+. Keep in mind that the Flyers have a big advantage here playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Rams are forced to play their second game in two days.

Even with yesterday's win over George Mason, Fordham is 3-12 on the road this season. One of the keys to playing to Dayton is that the Rams are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games off a win and have lost these contests by an average of 21.3 ppg.

Dayton is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that has won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral site.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulsa -

These teams met once earlier this season and it was the same kind of blowout I think we can expect today in the C-USA Tournament. Tulsa picked up a 97-71 win in that first meeting. Tulane is a very soft team defensively. They have allowed just shy of 73 points per game when playing on the road, while their opponents scoring average is only 69.9 points per game. Today they run into a Tulsa team averaging 73.2 points per game.

Tulsa is the hot team coming into this matchup. Tulane has lost two of their last three, and they did not deserve to win the game against North Texas in their last outing. Tulsa on the other hand has won eight consecutive games straight up, and 10 consecutive against the spread. The Golden Hurricane's opponents have a scoring average of almost 71 points per game, yet they have held those opponents to 68.2 points per game. That tells me this is a very talented team defensively, and they are facing a Tulane team that averages just 61.3 points per game on the road.

Tulsa is 8-1 against the spread when facing a poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. Tulane averages just nine assists per game while committing 13 turnovers which is a good indication of just how bad the Green Wave are. If you think revenge is going to be a factor you can think again. The first matchup was played back in January, so I doubt the Green Wave will draw much motivation from that loss. It is also worth noting that Tulane is 11-22 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -

The Clippers are riding an eight game win streak, and I see no reason why they won't be able to continue to keep that record intact on their home court today. Over their last five games the Clippers are averaging an impressive 115 points per game, while the defense has surrendered a mere 95.8 points per game. They are facing a Golden State team that has surrendered 101 points per game to division opponents this season.

Rest profiles are also in favor of the Clippers. They come into this game with a day to prepare, while Golden State is coming off a game last night where they hosted Dallas. Golden State's up-tempo style of play plays into the Clippers favor. They are 47-29 against the spread versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shot attempts per game.

You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Clippers when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more and the game involves two good teams having won 60 to 75% of their games on the season. The last time these teams met the game was played at Golden State and the Warriors won big, so I expect the Clippers to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. This system is 116-70 (62%) against the spread.

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings.

Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -

The Detroit Pistons are really struggling right now. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games, and although they picked up a win over Sacramento in their last outing, they have done very little to show any signs of life. Now the Pistons are tasked with facing one of the best teams in the Atlantic division.

If the losing streak and a tough opponent were not enough, their unfavorable rest profile should be. Detroit is playing in a back to pack situation after hosting the Kings last night. They have to face a Toronto team that is playing with a day of rest, and the Raptors should be playing with plenty of motivation after dropping a close game on the road with their division rival.

You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more, and that opponent is coming off a loss against a division rival. The last time these teams met Toronto handed the Pistons a 112-91 beat down. This system has a very favorable 84-38 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When the team is an underdog revenging a loss that system tightens up to 57-24 (70%) against the spread.

3* ACC Play of the Day on Boston College +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup. Boston College should have no problem winning this game against Georgia Tech. The Eagles may have finished towards the bottom of the ACC standings, but the Yellow Jackets were right there with them. Statistically Boston College is a much better team than Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 65 points per game away from home while allowing 69.1 points in those games. Meanwhile, Boston College comes into this matchup averaging 68.6 points per game on the season.

I think the Eagles defensive stats are a bit misleading. When you look at their strength of schedule, Boston College's opponents have a scoring average over 70 points per game. Facing a lowly team like Georgia Tech provides a great opportunity for Boston College to showcase its defensive talents.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Eagles. You should play on an underdog like Boston College when they are revenging a close loss by three points or less, and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to severely undervalue underdogs, and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

The Utah Utes have not been a very good team on the road, and although this is not a traditional road game, I still think they will struggle on a neutral court against an underrated team like Washington. These teams met twice this season and split their games in some very close battles. At this price I think the value is on the underdog since this is a matchup that will be close, but could certainly be won by either team.

The Utes take a big hit in offensive production when playing on the road. Their scoring average drops from 77 points per game down to 64 points per game. Washington on the other hand may have a slightly lower overall scoring average at 74.9 points per game, but their 70.5 points per game away from home will give them a big advantage over the Utes today.

The Huskies had a strong finish to the season winning three of their final four games. They closed the season with a win over USC, but failed to cover the spread in their last two matchups. Washington is 25-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. Utah comes into this matchup playing some of its worst defense of the season. The Utes are 21-49 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five seals or less.

5* Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTSA +

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners did not have a great season overall, but I still think they are a n easy call in this matchup with one of the conference's worst teams, East Carolina. The Roadrunners biggest problem this season was a defense that struggled to slow opponents down. During the final stretch of the regular season they seemed to have things back on track defensively. The team allowed over 76 points per game on the season, but over their last five games they held opponents to a mere 71.4 points per game.

East Carolina averages just 70.3 points per game when playing away from home. The defense has surrendered 72.8 points per game in those games. The Pirates only faced the Roadrunners once this season and that game was played at East Carolina. On a neutral court UTSA should have no problem narrowing the margin of defeat, and I even expect the Roadrunners to have a good chance at winning this game in the final seconds.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the UTSA Roadrunners. You should play against teams like East Carolina on a neutral court when they have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games and they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system has a 50-15 (77%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league, and the Bucks have done very little to show they are capable of keeping this game close against an excellent offensive team like Minnesota. The Timberwolves are averaging 106.6 points per game at home, while Milwaukee has surrendered an average of 104 points per game on the road this season.

What makes things even worse for the Bucks is the fact that they are forced to play in a back-to-back situation after hosting Orlando last night. Now they face this Minnesota team that is playing with a day of rest. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing their fourth game in five days, and that is a trend that should continue tonight against Minnesota.

You should play on teams like Minnesota in a game involving two teams allowing 102 points per game or more, after they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 77-42 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The worst team in the league will not be able to stop Minnesota tonight and the W'Wolves win this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

At one point in the season the Portland Trailblazers looked nearly unstoppable. That day is long gone, and now they enter tonight's matchup with Memphis having lost three of their last four games. The Grizzlies on the other hand have won four of their last five games, as their season begins to turn the corner.

Over their last five games the Grizzlies offense has really turned things up. They are averaging 102 points per game, while the defense is surrendering a mere 93.8 points per game. That tough Grizzlies defense should give the Trailblazers fits tonight, and Portland's poor defensive play on the road (105.6 points per game allowed) should allow Memphis to easily pull away with a win.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Portland. You should play against teams like the Grizzlies when they are revenging a straight up loss against an opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system has a very profitable record of 127-74 (63%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on South Dakota State -

Winning during a conference tournament has a lot to do with which teams get hot at the right time. There is no team in the Summit League hotter than the Jackrabbits. They have won nine of their last 10 games, and after putting a 21 point beat down on Western Illinois I like there chances to pick up a big win on a neutral court against IPFW.

These teams split their games this season. When IPFW played host the squeaked by with a seven point win in a game that was much closer than the final score. When the Jackrabbits played host they dominated with a 28 point victory. The neutral court is going to favor the better team, and that better team is without a doubt South Dakota State.

Not only has South Dakota State been winning games straight up, they have also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games. They have done so by playing outstanding defense. IPFW has played a soft schedule down the stretch and that has afforded the Mastodons with a 54.5 percent shooting percentage from the field over their last five games. They won't have that luxury today against this Jackrabbits team that has allowed a mere 39.9 percent shooting percentage over their last five games.

3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Nets UNDER

With the playoffs drawing near I expect two of the best teams in the Atlantic Division to play to their strengths. Both of these teams are soft on offensive production, but both have played some outstanding defense this year. The total on this game is far too high for a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle.

The Raptors come into this game holding opponents to a mere 96.5 points per game on the road. They have put up that stellar number against teams with a much more potent offense than what the Nets bring to this game. Toronto's opponents have a scoring average over 100 points per game, but Brooklyn is averaging just 97.4 points per game this season. It is a similar story for Brooklyn. The Nets have held opponents averaging 100.1 points per game to just 97.2 points when playing at home. They will host a Raptors team averaging 98.6 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Brooklyn) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. In this situation the under has a 142-91 (61%) record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats -

The Charlotte Bobcats have won six consecutive home games, and they should have no problem making it a seventh straight when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver has been horrible on the road this season posting an 11-19 record. The biggest problem for the Nuggets has been their defense. They are allowing 107.1 points per game on the road.

Charlotte may not be known for an explosive offensive attack since the team averages 95.4 points per game, but that should change in this matchup with Denver. The Bobcats are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they are facing a Nuggets team that has surrendered 116 points per game over their last five games. Charlotte has the benefit of home court advantage, and the Bobcats are also getting Denver in a back-to-back situation after playing New Orleans on the road yesterday.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play against road underdogs like Denver when they are revenging a home loss and their opponent is coming off a loss on the road. This system is 164-103 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Miami Ohio -

The records for these teams are a bit misleading. Miami Ohio played a very tough non-conference schedule so they are coming into the first round of the MAC Tournament with a 12-17 overall record. Their 8-10 record in MAC play is one game better than opponent Kent State. The RedHawks have a recent win over the Golden Flashes, beating Kent State on its home court 73-61 just under a week ago.

The Golden Flashes finished the regular season by losing four of their last five games. They are averaging a mere 65 points per game during that stretch, while allowing 68.6 points per game on the defensive end of the court. Kent State has not fared well on the road this season, and with home court advantage there is no reason the RedHawks cannot pick up another double-digit win against the Golden Flashes tonight.

Fading Kent State come tournament time has proved to be a very lucrative move over the last few seasons. They Golden Flashes are 2-11 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. These teams may have split games this season with Kent State winning the first meeting, but that victory was a statistical anomaly. The Golden Flashes made 58 percent of their 26 three-point attempts in that game, and that is a feat that is very unlikely to take place again since the team has made just 34.6 percent of their attempts on the season. The matchup from last week is a more telling indicator of what we can expect to see tonight.

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest.

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game.

You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Pacers may be on a three game skid, but they are still clearly the best team in the league. Their recent losing streak has only created value as Indiana looks to get some revenge against Dallas from a loss last month. The Mavericks are not playing much better than Indiana, so it is surprising to see the Pacers listed as such a small favorite. Dallas has lost three of its last four games coming into this matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. They have held opponents to a mere 92 points per game this season. The last time they faced the Mavericks the Pacers gave up just 81 points. They suffered from a poor shooting performance in that game, but that was an anomaly that should not be credited to good defensive play from Dallas. The Mavericks have allowed 102.5 points per game at home this season and opponents are making 47 percent of their shot attempts in those games.

You should play against home underdogs like Dallas when they are averaging less than 14.5 turnovers per game and are facing a team that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games. This system is 233-157 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Indiana is the better team, and winning by two points should be an easy task for the best team in the East.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

The Explorers are an easy call in this matchup against Saint Joseph's. La Salle will have several key advantages today. They are the better rebounding team pulling in 36 boards per game which ranks 114th in the nation. The Hawks on the other hand rank 151st in the nation in rebounds per game. Defensively La Salle has played incredibly well this season, especially when on the road. They are holding opponents to just 66.2 points per game.

The Hawks do not have a lot to play for in this game. They cannot move ahead of Saint Louis in the A-10 standings, so at this point they are just trying to prepare for the conference tournament. La Salle comes into this matchup having won two of its last three games. They are playing to end the season on a positive note after a bad stretch in February.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against favorites like St Josephs when they have gone over the total by more than six points in four consecutive games, and they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 36 points or more combined in their last five games. This system is 40-20 (67%) against the spread.

4* Total Annihilator of the Week on Heat/Bulls UNDER

This matchup features two very talented defenses. The Heat have held opponents to 98.5 points per game on the road this season. Those opponents have a scoring average of 100 points per game so they should easily improve on that number against this Bulls team that is averaging only 93 points per game.

Chicago has arguably the best defense in the league. They have held opponents to 89.6 points per game when playing at home. Over their last five games they have surrendered just 91.2 points per game. The Bulls have put these numbers up against teams with an offensive scoring average of 100.2 points per game which is a comparable number to Miami's offensive scoring average this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under when the road team has a +3 to +7 point scoring differential and is coming off a game allowing 110 points or more, and they are facing an average team that has a +/- 3 point scoring differential and the total has been set between 180 to 189.5 points. This system has an impressive 24-4 (86%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -

Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today.

The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* False Favorite Game of the Week on Colorado State +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Wyoming is a very overrated team. The last time these teams met the Rams picked up a 15 point win. The change in venue may allow the Cowboys to decrease that margin of loss, but it will not be enough for them to win this game.

Colorado State is averaging 73.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys come into this matchup averaging a mere 64.6 points per game. The reason Wyoming was blown out by the Rams in the first meeting of the season is because they are a poor rebounding team. Colorado State pulls in 38 rebounds per game, with 11 of them coming on the offensive glass. The Cowboys on the other hand are averaging 29 rebounds per game with just four coming on the offensive glass.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on Colorado State. You should take a team like the Rams when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game, and they are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system has a 212-158 (57%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread.

Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season.

The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road.

3* American Athletic Game of the Week on UConn +

This is a lot of points for a game that could easily be won by UConn. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country surrendering 62.8 points per game. In the last game against Louisville the Huskies suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance. They were held to 35 percent shooting from the field, and that is unlikely to take place again today.

UConn is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won three straight games, including a victory over then No. 11 ranked Cincinnati. I don't think Louisville will get a big benefit from home court advantage since UConn has dominated on the road with a 10-3 record.

The Huskies are a team that plays incredibly well against good teams. They are 52-31 ATS in road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Louisville on the other hand has not performed well as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

4* Total Annihilator on Pacers/Rockets UNDER

The Indiana Pacers are a very good team defensively. They are trying to secure the top overall seed in the East, and following a two game losing streak I expect the Pacers to come out with a strong defensive performance tonight against the Rockets. Indiana has held opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game this season.

Houston is a much better team defensively than it gets credit for. The Rockets opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.2 points per game, yet Houston has surrendered just 99 points per game when playing at home. They will catch a break tonight against a Pacers team that averages a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. It is also worth nothing that over their last five games the Pacers scoring average has dipped down to 96 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under in a matchup that features an average three point shooting team making 33 to 36.5 percent of their attempts like the Rockets, against an average three point shooting defense allowing the same percentage like Indiana, in a game involving two teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin per game after 42 or more games. This system has a record of 100-57 (64%) in favor of the under.

4* Heavy Hitter on Denver Nuggets -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Lakers are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting the Clippers last night, and now they have to play on the road against Denver. In last night's game the Lakers were blown out by 48 points so the team's confidence has to be at a season low.

The Nuggets have an explosive offense. They are averaging 103.6 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up an even bigger number tonight since the Lakers have allowed 108.2 points per game on the road. It is also worth noting that over their last five games the Lakers have surrendered an average of 122 points per game.

You should play against road underdogs like the Lakers when they are revenging a home loss to their opponent, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home losses. The last time these teams met the Nuggets picked up a 22 point win in Los Angeles. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Blazers/Mavericks OVER

Both of these teams are soft defensively. The Trailblazers are coming into this matchup allowing 105.3 points per game when playing on the road. They are scoring 108 points per game in road games so there is very little doubt about Portland making a big contribution towards the over. In fact, the over has an 18-11 record when Portland is on the road this season.

The Mavericks should also do their part towards sending this game over the total. The team averages 106.9 points per game at home, but against a soft defense like Portland's they should be able to exceed that number. Defensively the Mavericks are giving up 102.6 points per game, but that number will probably be a lot higher tonight against Portland's outstanding offense. The Mavericks have also surrendered 104.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system has a 44-14 (76%) record in favor of the over.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The last time these teams met Wright State squeaked by with a single point win. The Golden Grizzlies will be playing with a lot more motivation in this matchup, and I like there chances to play another great game against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a confidence boosting win over Youngstown State, and now they get the Raiders on a neutral court with a chance to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Statistically the Grizzlies matchup well with the Raiders. Wright State is not a strong rebounding team. They average a mere 29 rebounds per game, with only seven of those coming on the offensive glass. That ranks them 344th in the country in rebounds per game. The Raiders are also ranked 270th in points per game with 67.4, while the Grizzlies average 74.9 points per game and rank 78th in the country.

Oakland is 33-15 against the spread when playing on the road or a neutral court against a conference opponent. They are also 17-7 ATS in March games with Greg Kampe as the head coach. Kampe is the third longest-tenured Division 1 head coach in the country. That kind of experience makes Oakland a dangerous team in the postseason. In this matchup the Grizzlies are both more talented and experienced than Wright State.

3* No Doubt Rout on North Dakota -

Southern Utah has been unable to win a game since their first game of the season. They are one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I don't think the Thunderbirds can play a close game against North Dakota and its 85th ranked offense.

Southern Utah ranks 350th in the country in points per game with 58.6. North Dakota on the other hand is averaging 74.3 points per game, and should have no problem exceeding that number against this Thunderbirds defense that has surrendered 75 points per game. North Dakota is 1.5 games back on Weber State in the Big Sky standings, and they have a half game lead over third place Montana. There is still a lot to play for, and that means this will be another blowout loss for Southern Utah.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Thunderbirds. You should fade teams like Southern Utah when they are revenging a same season loss, and they are off two straight losses against conference rivals. This system has a 172-103 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Thunder are on fire right now having won three straight games coming into this matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss to the Clippers in its last outing, and I expect a similar result tonight against Oklahoma City. Over their last five games the Thunder are averaging 115 points per game, and they should have no problem putting up another huge number against the Suns' soft defense.

The Suns are struggling at the point guard position, and that will make it incredibly difficult to play a close game against a top tier team like the Thunder. Eric Bledsoe has been out since December with a knee injury, and in their last game against the Clippers the Suns lost their backup Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa will miss up to six weeks with a fractured hand. The Suns are now 2-4 in their last six games and allowing more than 110 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Thunder. You should play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system identifies teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 56-29 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +

In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less.

USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Old Dominion -

When these teams met back in January it was Old Dominion picking up a double-digit win on the road. In the final game of the regular season I see no reason why the Monarchs cannot pick up another impressive win over the Pirates, this time on their home court. The Pirates have not fared well on the road this season posting a 7-6 record.

These teams may have similar overall records, but the most telling number about the disparity in talent between them are their conference records. Old Dominion is 8-7 in conference games while the Pirates are 5-10. The Monarchs should have no problem improving on that number from their home court where they have allowed a mere 63.8 points per game this season.

East Carolina is 10-27 ATS when they are revenging a loss as a favorite. The Pirates are also 24-43 ATS when revenging any same season loss. Old Dominion is coming off very poor performance against Charlotte in its last outing, and that has created value on today's line. The Monarchs should dominate this game from start to finish.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Air Force +

The Lobos are playing in the perfect situation to look past Air Force as they prepare to take on the Mountain West co-leader in their regular season finale. Air Force is coming into this matchup under the radar with an 11-16 record, and they are in a good spot to play a great game against the unsuspecting Lobos. New Mexico will be on the road against San Diego State to determine the regular season champion of the Mountain West assuming both teams get past tonight's opponent with a win, and with such a big game on deck I think they come up short of covering the spread against the Falcons tonight.

The Falcons are unlikely to pull off an upset, but they are definitely capable of keeping this game within the 18 points they are being spotted. Only three of Air Force's 11 conference losses have come by a margin large enough to cover this line. The Falcons were on the road against San Diego State just a few weeks ago and manged to stick to within a single digit margin, and I expect them to deliver a similar result tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Air Force. You should play on road underdogs like the Falcons when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, and they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has resulted in a 38-13 (75%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas Tech +

The Kansas Jayhawks do not have a lot to play for tonight. They are already the regular season conference champions, and with a lack of motivation I think they will have a lot of trouble covering a double-digit spread against this hungry Red Raiders team. Texas Tech's season has been a disaster, but they have played some great basketball down the stretch. Four of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less, which includes matchups against a ranked Iowa State team, and a game against the Jayhawks.

Kansas will rest Joel Embiid for this game in preparation for the postseason. When these teams met just over two weeks ago Embiid accounted for 18 of the Jayhawks 64 points. Kansas ended up winning that game by a single point. The lack of motivation showed on the road against Oklahoma State in the Jayhawks' last outing, and I think we can expect a similar performance tonight against Texas Tech.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Red Raiders. You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a loss of three points or less and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue the underdog and it has resulted in a 41-13 (76%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +

The Warriors are playing in a letdown spot today after winning a close game on the road against Indiana last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but doing so when coming off a big win like Golden State is will prove to be incredibly difficult tonight against this Celtics team that is starting to get hot on offence. Over their last five games Boston has averaged 100 points per game.

Boston has covered the spread in three of their last four games. They are coming into this matchup with plenty of rest having three days off since hosting the Pacers the first of March. These teams met back in January and the Celtics managed to stick to within two points playing at Golden State. This time they have the luxury of playing host, so I like their chances to play another close game with the Warriors.

The Warriors have been a soft team defensively when playing on the road. They are surrendering 99.9 points per game, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage against this well rested Celtics team. Boston has held opponents to 97.3 points per game at home this season, and they should have no problem improving on that number against Golden State tonight.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER

This total is far too high considering the way these teams match up tonight. Detroit may not be known for playing great defense, but they have performed well defensively when facing a division opponent. The Pistons are surrendering a mere 94.4 points per game against the division, and the under looks really attractive when you consider their offensive production also takes a hit down to 98.4 points scored in those games.

Chicago is holding division opponents to 86.5 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the league, and I think they should easily keep the Pistons in check tonight. On the offensive end of the court the Bulls are nothing to be worried about. When playing on the road this season Chicago is averaging a mere 91.7 points per game, and against division opponents they are averaging just 90.6 points per game.

You should play the under when one of the teams has beaten the spread by 36 or more points in their last five games (Chicago), and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 55-37 (60%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* Letdown Game of the Week on Bobcats +

The Indiana Pacers are playing in a bad letdown spot after losing at home to Golden State last night. Now they are in the second half of a back-to-back, traveling to Charlotte to take on the Bobcats. Charlotte should be well prepared for this game since they are playing with a day of rest following a three game road trip.

The Bobcats have been playing some great basketball at home recently. They have a perfect 4-0 record in their last four home games, which includes an upset win as an underdog over the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte's last loss at home came against San Antonio, but it was a game where the Bobcats still managed to cover the spread. Now they have the luxury of facing Indiana in a percent situation to give the Pacers a scare.

Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against teams from the Central division. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming into this matchup with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games overall. Indiana has really been struggling away from home posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight road games.

4* Western Conference Total of the Week on Lakers/Pelicans OVER

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming into this matchup with some serious issues on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Pelicans have surrendered an average of 109.8 points per game. On the offensive end of the court the Pelicans should be fine tonight since they face a Lakers team that is allowing 109.6 points per game over their last five games.

With both defenses surrendering a combined average of 219.4 points per game over their last five games I think we are getting a lot of value on the over tonight. The Pelicans offense should get the boost they need facing a struggling defense like the Lakers, and the Lakers should have no problem continuing to put up big offensive numbers since they are already averaging 106 points per game over their last five games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have gone over the total in six of their last seven games.

The over has a 39-19 record over the last two seasons when the Pelicans are facing a team with a losing record. When their opponent is being outscored by three or more points per game the over is 11-3 in Pelican's games this season. The over is also 13-5 in Lakers games against poor pressure defenses that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Both teams are playing extremely soft defense right now, and they have gone over the total in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight, and even Lebron James won't be able to get them past the Rockets. Miami was at home last night hosting Charlotte, and now they have to play the second half of a back-to-back on the road in Houston tonight. The Rockets have been on fire recently, winning 11 of their last 13 games. Over their last five games they are scoring an impressive 110.8 points per game.

Houston has a 23-7 record at home this season, and the oddsmakers have really undervalued their home court advantage tonight. The Rockets are holding opponents to a mere 98.8 points per game when playing at home, while averaging 106.9 points per game on the offensive end of the court. With Houston's offense playing as well as they have been, and Miami playing without rest, the Rockets should have no problem picking up a win on their home court.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Houston. You should play against road teams like Miami when the line is three points or less and they went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and both teams have a winning record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the road team and it has resulted in a 49-21 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Big Sky Game of the Month on Northern Colorado +

North Dakota is clearly outmatched against Northern Colorado today. The Bears should have no problem putting up big numbers against North Dakota's soft defense. The Bears come into this matchup averaging 74.1 points per game, making 48.7 percent of their attempts from the field and 38.7 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line. North Dakota has surrendered 73.3 points per game this season, allowing just over 48 percent shooting from the field.

These teams met earlier this season and the Bears picked up an 18 point win. North Dakota has won three straight games coming into this matchup, but only one of those teams has a winning record. North Dakota will be at a severe disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. They rank 321st in the nation with just 31.1 rebounds per game.

Northern Colorado is 6-0 ATS against terrible defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 48 percent or worse. The Bears are coming off a tough home loss, but in the past those types of games seem to serve as motivation. They are 13-4 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. The Bears are the better team and it will show today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Jacksonville +

These teams met last Saturday and the Jacksonville Dolphins were able to stick to within 14 points on the road. There is a lot of value getting the Dolphins as a 14.5 point underdog in this rematch. Jacksonville knows what adjustments need to be made to play a better game against Mercer this time around.

The Dolphins suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in the previous matchup with the Bears making just 40 percent of their attempts. Jacksonville averages 74.7 points per game this season, and they have made an average of almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. With an average shooting performance tonight Jacksonville will easily keep this game within a single-digit margin.

Jacksonville may have lost their last regular season game to Mercer, but the Dolphins still had a very strong finish to the season. They managed to win three of their final four games. Over their final five games the Dolphins boosted their scoring average to 75.8 points per game, while Mercer finished the season well below its scoring average at 73.6 points per game. The value is on Jacksonville covering the spread in today's rematch.

4* Big Sky Game of the Week on Montana State +

The value in this matchup is on the road team when in-state rivals Montana State and Montana face off tonight. The last time these teams met the game was decided by a mere four points, and the change in venue is not going to be enough to give the Grizzlies a double-digit advantage. Both of these teams have similar overall and conference records, and with this being a rivalry game it is one that could easily be won outright by the Bobcats.

Montana has not fared well from the favorite position this season. They are 3-10 against the spread when playing as a favorite. The Grizzlies are also 1-8 against the spread in home games after a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bobcats should have no problem keeping this game close against their in-state rival today. In the first meeting of the season they suffered from a below average shooting performance and still managed to stick to within four points. I don't credit their poor shooting in that game to good defensive play by the Grizzlies since Montana has allowed opponents to average 70.3 points per game on almost 48 percent shooting from the field this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Montana State when they average 67-74 points per game, and they are facing an opponent allowing 67-74 points per game after 15 or more games, and they scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. This system has a 79-37 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -

The Utah Jazz are playing their third game in the last four days. This is the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Indiana last night. Now the Jazz have to travel to Milwaukee for their third consecutive road game to face a Bucks team that has been playing better than their record would indicate.

Milwaukee comes into this matchup having covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games. They may not be winning a lot of games straight up, but they are definitely keeping games close against good teams. They should have no problem picking up a win with the lowly Jazz in town. The Jazz have lost five of their last seven games, and playing on the road again in a back-to-back situation will simply be too much to overcome.

The Jazz are 2-10 against the spread after playing two consecutive road games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 11-2 against the spread. With Milwaukee coming into this matchup with a day of rest and home court advantage they should have no problem picking up a win tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -

The home team has a big advantage in this matchup when the Brooklyn Nets host the Chicago Bulls tonight. Chicago is playing in a tough spot after hosting New York last night, and now they have the play the second half of a back-to-back against this Brooklyn team that has won three of its last four games. The Nets are playing with a day of rest, and they are back on their home court where they will try to revenge a loss against Chicago that opened a seven game road trip that started just over two weeks ago.

Both of these teams have talented defenses, but it is the Nets offense that gives them the advantage in this game. Brooklyn is averaging 98.8 points per game at home this season, which is more than enough to cover such a small spread against a Bulls team that averages 92.1 points per game on the road. Chicago's offensive numbers have come against teams with much softer defenses than what they will face from Brooklyn tonight. The Bulls' opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game.

Chicago has not played well on the road this year. They have a 15-16 straight up record. The fact that Chicago is surrendering 94.5 points per game on the road while only scoring 92.1 points per game is a good indication that the Bulls are even worse than their losing road record would indicate. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days, and I don't think they can keep it close against a rested Brooklyn team playing with home court advantage.

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Grizzlies -

The Wizards are trying for their longest winning streak in over nine years tonight, but it is a streak they will not be achieving with the Memphis Grizzlies in town. Memphis has been playing incredibly well recently, and with their offense rolling the way it has been the Wizards are simply outmatched. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have averaged over 103 points per game.

Washington's recent run has also come against a fairly soft schedule. They are coming off a road game against one of the worst teams in the league, and I don't give the Wizards a lot of credibility for beating up on teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland and New Orleans. Washington has yet to face a defense as talented as the Grizzlies' during their recent run. Memphis comes into this matchup surrendering a mere 92.3 points per game on the road this season.

You should play against home teams with a line of three points or less in a game involving two teams that are +/- three points per game in differential after 42 or more games, and after the home team has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 93-48 (66%) against the spread. You should also play on road favorites like Memphis after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 209-132 (61%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -

The Warriors should have no problem picking up a win over Toronto today. Over their last five games they have been playing some outstanding defense surrendering just 97.4 points per game. They are facing a Raptors team that has allowed over 100 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams boasting a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons.

I don't think home court advantage will be a big factor for Toronto tonight. Golden State is coming into this game with a day of rest, so the impact of traveling will not be as bad as it is when teams are playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors have benefited from a soft schedule at home this year, but that changes today. Toronto is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 70 percent of its games on the season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Warriors. You should play on road favorites like Golden State when they are averaging over 102 points per game and facing a team allowing 92 to 98 points per game, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This system has a 48-22 (69%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on South Alabama +

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In the first matchup South Alabama picked up an eight point win on their home court. This time the venue to will change and the Ragin' Cajuns will play host, but home court advantage is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Louisiana-Lafayette to cover such a large spread.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a much better record than the Jaguars, but with the way these teams matchup the value is with South Alabama. Lafayette is a team that likes to run an up-tempo offense to tire their opponent, but South Alabama is too good defensively for that style of play to work. The Jaguars have held opponents to 69.8 points per game this season, and that includes holding the Cajuns to 73 points earlier this season. Lafayette typically averages over 81 points per game. The Cajun's defense has been horrible allowing just shy of 75 points per game. They surrendered a whopping 81 points to the Jaguars last time these teams met.

The Jaguars have dominated the head-to-head history with Lafayette. Over the last three seasons, South Alabama is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread when facing the Cajuns. In all games played at Louisiana-Lafayette since 1997, the Jaguars are 8-5 against the spread. The Cajuns are 3-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games. They are coming off a tough road loss to Georgia State in their last outing, and I expect that loss to have a lingering negative effect.

4* Vegas Insider on Minnesota T'Wolves -

Minnesota is an easy call in this matchup against Sacramento tonight. The Wolves are coming off three days of rest, while the Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after facing the Lakers last night. Minnesota is also the hot team coming into this game. The Wolves have won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread.

Both of these teams have had their share of issues defensively this season, but over their last five games the Timberwolves have stepped up their level of play on that end of the court. Minnesota has surrendered 98.8 points per game compared to 104.8 points per game allowed over the Kings last five games. The Wolves also have the advantage on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 105 points per game on the road, to 102.7 points per game at home from Sacramento. The disparity in scoring is even greater when you look at how these teams have performed offensively over their last five games too.

This matchup fits into a system to play on teams like Minnesota that have covered the spread in four of more of their last six games, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games and are playing a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the year. This system has a very profitable record of 84-46 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the Wolves tonight because they should pick up an easy win.

4* No Brainer on Long Beach State -

The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers when playing on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 10-4 ATS record in road games this year, and they should improve on that number today against CS-Fullerton. The 49ers should also be the more motivated team in this game. A win over Fullerton will keep their chances alive to finish the regular season in first place in the Big West Conference.

The 49ers have a very underrated defense. Against conference opponents they have surrendered a mere 64 points per game. The Titans on the other hand are surrendering 73.1 points per game against Big West opponents. It is a similar story on the offensive end of the court too. Long Beach State improves to 71.2 points per game against the conference while Fullerton regresses to 69.2 points per game. The Titans have benefited from a soft schedule this year, but their performance in the Big West is a good indication of how overrated they really are.

You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Long Beach State when they have a +/- 3.5 point per game differential and are playing against a team with a -3.5 to -8.5 point per game differential after 15 or more games, and they are coming off a close win by three points or less. This system has resulted in a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Northern Arizona +

Weber State is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers in this Big Sky showdown with Northern Arizona tonight. The Lumberjacks managed to keep this game to within a single-digit margin in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The change in venue to Weber State's home court is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Wildcats to cover the spread.

The Lumberjacks have a very underrated defense this year. Their opponents have an offensive scoring average of almost 71 points per game and the Lumberjacks are allowing an even 70 points per game. Against conference opponents that number tightens up to 68.8 points per game allowed. I don't think Weber State is good enough offensively to score enough points on Northern Arizona's defense to cover a double-digit line today, and that makes the Lumberjacks a strong value play.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more like Northern Arizona when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent and playing their second road game in the last three days. This system has a 123-78 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tennessee State +

These teams may have vastly different records, but the Tigers have been playing just as well as the Colonels lately. Tennessee State has won its last two meetings, including a road win over Morehead State in their last outing. It is also worth nothing that the Tigers were listed as a double-digit underdog in that game. The Tigers have been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite.

The biggest weakness for Eastern Kentucky this year has been a defense that is allowing a lot of uncontested shots. That has resulted in opponents making 48.4 percent of their attempts. The Colonels are allowing 70.1 points per game, and it will be extremely difficult to win by a double-digit margin with the defense giving up as many points as they have. Tennessee State has proved to be a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-4 ATS in road games, while Eastern Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Eastern Kentucky. You should fade teams like the Colonels when they are a home favorite of 10 points or more and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 20 percent of their games or less. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has led to a 279-182 (61%) record against the spread.

4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Oakland +

The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than their record indicates. The non-conference portion of the schedule was tough this season as the Grizzlies opened by playing three of their first four games on the road and against ranked teams. The Grizzlies have been playing much better against Horizon League opponents posting a matching record with Youngstown State of 6-9.

Home court advantage will not be enough for Youngstown to pull off a six point win against this underrated Oakland team. The Penguins are surrendering an average of 72.9 points per game this season against opponents with an offensive scoring average of only 69.7 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is averaging 73.8 points per game on the year. Oakland already has one win over Youngstown State this season, and I think they will have a good chance to pull off the sweep over the Penguins today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oakland after going over the total by 18 or more points in their last three games when they have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies road teams that are performing well offensively and are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 210-124 (63%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Davidson -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Davidson is a much better team than Elon, and it will show on the court today. The Wildcats are 14-1 against conference opponents this season, and 10-5 against the spread in those games. Elon on the other hand has a decent straight up record of 11-4 against the Southern Conference, but they are 7-8 against the spread in those games.

The last time these teams met the game went to overtime and was played at Davidson. The Phoenix are the only team to hand the Wildcats a conference loss this season, so Davidson should be playing with plenty of motivation for revenge today. In that matchup Davidson shot well below their typical 47.5 percent from the field, while Elon shot over 50 percent from the field when they normally average closer to 46 percent shooting. That statistical anomaly is unlikely to repeat itself in this second meeting of the season.

You should play on road favorites like Davidson when they are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, when their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite in their previous game. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread. It is a good way to identify matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team.

3* Main Event on California +

This is a revenge game for the Golden Bears, and I like their chances to get that revenge after giving one away on their home court earlier this season. The last time these teams met the game went to overtime. The Cal players struggled to find the basket and were forced to play soft defense because of foul trouble. It took a near 48 percent shooting effort on three-point attempts for the Sun Devils to get to overtime and eventually win that game.

Cal has several statistical advantages in this game. They have been the better ball control team this season with a mere 10 turnovers per game, to 12 turnovers per game from the Sun Devils. Cal is also the better rebounding team posting a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Sun Devils come into this matchup with a -2 figure in rebounding margin. The Sun Devils really struggle on the offensive glass, pulling in a mere seven offensive rebounds per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing road teams. You should play on road teams like Cal in a game involving two average defenses that are allowing 67-74 points per game when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 222-141 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are the better team, and the fact that they are getting so many points is a good indication that the oddsmakers have overvalued Utah's home court advantage. Colorado comes into this matchup with a 20-8 overall record and a 9-6 record against Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Utah is 18-9 overall and has a losing record of 7-8 against the Pac-12.

Utah played a very soft non-conference schedule and it featured only one game being played on the road. That soft schedule has inflated Utah's record to make the team look better than they actually are when playing at home. When you separate the non-conference portion of the schedule from the Utes games against Pac-12 teams you can see just how mediocre Utah has been this year. Utah's scoring average drops from 78.4 points per game down to 71.2 points per game, and their defensive scoring increases from 64.3 points allowed to 67.9 points allowed against the Pac-12.

The Utes are not a very physical team, and that bodes well for the Buffaloes in this matchup. Colorado is 31-15 ATS against teams that have been called for three or more fouls per game less than their opponents after 15 or more games on the season. The Buffaloes are also 25-13 ATS when coming off a game where they failed to coverage the spread. Since Colorado is on the road we will take the points, but they will have a good chance to win this game straight up today.

3* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Cavaliers UNDER

This total is set quite a bit higher than it should be considering how poorly these teams have looked on the offensive end of the court this season. The Jazz come into this matchup averaging just 92.3 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents allowing an average of over 100 points per game. Cleveland is an above average team in comparison, allowing just 98.2 points per game at home this season.

The Cavaliers have also had a lot of problems getting points on the board. They are averaging 96.9 points per game this season. The Jazz are definitely a soft team defensively, but I think they should be able to slow the Cavaliers down in this matchup. Utah's opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.7 points per game, and with Cleveland averaging almost five points per game below that number the under shows a lot of value.

This game fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when one of the teams (Utah) is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road win by 10 points or more. The Jazz picked up a 23 point win at home over Phoenix in their last outing, while the Cavaliers picked up a 10 point road win over Oklahoma City. In this situation the under has a 98-52 (65%) record.

5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -

The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup.

The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Cornell +

Harvard is not the kind of team that is going to win in a 20+ point blowout very often. They are a smart team that likes to slow down on offense and setup plays. The fact that they are not a fast paced team is going to make it extremely difficult to have enough possessions to outscore Cornell by 25 or more points.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In that first meeting the Harvard Crimson managed to shoot 60 percent from the field. That is a feat that is extremely unlikely to take place again since the Big Red have allowed 60 percent shooting or more just one other time this season, and that other game was decided by a mere seven points.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Crimson. You should fade teams like Harvard when they are coming off three or more consecutive road wins, and they are a top level team that has won 80 percent or more of its games on the season. This system identifies teams that are playing in a letdown situation. It has resulted in a 26-9 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly-SLO -

It is a Big West showdown when the Cal Poly Mustangs take on the UC Davis Aggies. The last time these teams met the Aggies picked up a four point win, but I think their fortunes will change in the second meeting of the season. In that first game UC Davis benefited from an absurdly good night of shooting from beyond the three point line, and that statistical anomaly is not likely to take place again.

Cal Poly is a much better team defensively than the Aggies. The Mustangs have held opponents to a mere 64 points per game this season. Even with UC Davis shooting 10 percent better on three point attempts and making almost 50 percent of their shot attempts from the field, the Aggies were still held to just 62 points in that first meeting of the season. The Mustangs were also without one of their best players in that game with Kyle Odister out of action. Odister is expected to be in the lineup tonight.

UC Davis is not a strong rebounding team, and I think that will be a big issue against the Poly's top notch defense. They cannot count on an absurdly great shooting performance in this matchup. UC Davis is 7-20 ATS in home games when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds, and they are 12-31 at home when failing to cover the spread in their previous home game.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Week on Duquesne +

This is way too many points for an underrated team like Duquesne to be receiving. The Dukes are averaging 73.5 points per game this season, which is more than the Billikens have averaged on their home court. St Louis has struggled to meet the oddsmakers absurdly high expectations recently, and I expect that to be the case again today. The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

St Louis will have an edge defensively, but I don't think it is enough to cover such a large spread. Six of the Billikens last eight games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and the competition does not get any easier against the Dukes tonight. Duquesne has a 7-2 ATS record when playing on the road, and they are 8-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more after 10 or more consecutive wins. The system has a 170-123 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Duquesne when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 75 or more points and are coming off two covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 49-17 (71%) against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on UAB -

We are getting a lot of value on the Blazers in this matchup thanks to a somewhat sluggish performance lately. UAB has lost four of its last seven games, but more importantly they have shown signs of turning a corner by winning three of their last four. Now they have the luxury of facing the worst team in the conference, and we get the benefit of laying a single-digit number in a game that should end in a blowout.

Statistically this is a very lopsided matchup. Rice has a mere 2-11 record against conference opponents this season. They are averaging 63.2 points per game, and face a UAB team that has gone for 74.9 points per game this year. The Owls' offensive woes really stand out when you look at their performance against conference opponents. Rice is averaging just 60.1 points per game against the conference, and over their last five games that number has dipped all the way down to 56.6 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Owls. You should play against home underdogs like Rice when they are coming off a road loss, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a close road win decided by three points or less. This system identifies road teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 110-57 (66%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Murray State -

Murray State is without a doubt the best team in the Ohio Valley, and they are on fire coming into tonight's matchup against Tennessee-Martin. The Racers have won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss during that stretch coming by a mere three points on the road against first in the East - Belmont. Tennessee-Martin is currently in last place in the West division of the conference.

The biggest problem for the Skyhawks this season has been a complete lack of defense. They are allowing 81.1 points per game overall, and they have not received much of a home court advantage by still allowing 79.5 points per game. The Skyhawks are -6 in rebounding margin at home and will be severely outmatched on the boards against the Racers tonight. The last time these teams met Murray State picked up a 14-point win and a change in venue will not be enough to cut that margin in half.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Racers. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Murray State when they are coming off three straight wins over conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60 to 80 percent of their games and are playing a bad team winning 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER

The Pacers defense has been ridiculously good against division opponents this season. They are surrendering a mere 87.4 points per game in those games. When playing at home Indiana has allowed an average of just 86.3 points per game. Now the Pacers have the luxury of facing a Milwaukee team that only averages 93.3 points per game, which makes the under an easy call in this matchup.

Milwaukee may not have a great record, but they are not a bad team defensively. Against division opponents the Bucks have allowed 99.1 points per game, and simply matching that average makes the under a very attractive play. The under is 22-9 when Milwaukee is a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. I expect to see the Pacers take a big early lead and have a lot of clock killing possessions late in this game that ensure we stay under the total.

This matchup fits into a system that identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have set the total too high because of recent performances rather than how these teams actually match up. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points after one of the teams scored 110 points or more in two straight games (Indiana), and they are playing against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. This system has a 24-5 (83%) record in favor of the under.

5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte +

The wrong team is favored in this Conference USA showdown. The Charlotte 49ers are a much better team than their 14-12 record indicates, and I think we are getting a lot of value on today's line because of their recent slump. The East Carolina Pirates are the perfect opponent to end that recent slide.

The Pirates are a not a team that gains a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they have a 3-6 record against the spread in those games. They are not getting a big boost on the offensive end of the court, averaging 1.5 points per game more at home than they do overall. The Pirates are getting way too much credit because of their recent performances against Louisiana Tech and Rice. Tech was without their best player, and Rice is the worst team in the conference, so those wins should not buy a lot of credibility.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 49ers. You should play on road underdogs like Charlotte when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more of their last seven games, and they are facing an opponent that has covered the spread in four of their last five games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a tendency to overcompensate on the lines. It has resulted in a 164-95 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Chattanooga +

Western Carolina has benefit from a fairly soft schedule this season, and I think they are clearly outmatched against Chattanooga tonight. The Catamounts are 8-30 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. They are also 33-58 ATS when playing against any team with a winning record after 15 or more games.

The Catamounts have been successful at home because of their ability to score a lot of points. Their defense is not good, but they average 79.5 points per game. They will not have the luxury of simply forcing the Mocs into a shootout in this game because Chattanooga is every bit as good on offense as the Catamounts. The Mocs are averaging just shy of 77 points per game this season.

These teams are very even statistically, which is a good indication that this will be a very close game. In fact, it is a matchup that could easily be won by either team. Both teams average similar numbers in rebounding, turnovers and shooting percentage, with a slight edge actually going to the Mocs who are making almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. I expect this game to be very close, with Chattanooga having a good opportunity to win straight up in the end.

3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup when the red hot Stanford Cardinal take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Stanford has won five of its last six games and covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games. The Sun Devils on the other hand come into this matchup having lost two in a row, and they they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

These teams have put up comparable numbers in points scored and points allowed, and they have very comparable records. However, Stanford is still the better team in this matchup. The Cardinal have a 3-1 record against ranked opponents this season, and they have proved to be the better rebounding team and ball control team. Stanford has allowed opponents a mere eight offensive rebounds per game, and they are committing just 11 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have allowed opponents double-digits in offensive rebounds and average 12 turnovers per game.

Stanford is 8-1 ATS against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season. They are also 8-2 ATS against teams committing less than 14 turnovers per game. Arizona State has struggled against good three point shooting teams. Stanford is knocking down just over 38 percent of their three point attempts, and the Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS against teams making over 37 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games in the season.

3* Bailout Blowout on Brooklyn Nets +

Portland just played on the road in Denver last night, and now they will host the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest. The Nets have been playing extremely well recently, picking up wins in six of their last nine games while Portland has been struggling to hover around .500 for the past month.

The Blazers have surrendered 103.8 points per game over their last five games. That should provide a nice scoring boost to the Nets tonight. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing some outstanding defense recently allowing just 95 points per game over their last five games.

Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in the last 14 days. They are also 20-8 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. Portland on the other hand comes into this matchup with a 15-29 ATS record over the last three seasons after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Phoenix Suns have played soft defense all season. They are allowing 101.9 points per game, and they should give up another big number tonight against the Jazz. The Suns were at home last night in a losing effort against Minnesota, and now they have to play in a back-to-back situation against a rested Jazz team that is coming off a confidence boosting win over Boston in their last outing.

The Utah offense has been on fire recently. Over their last five games the Jazz have averaged 102.4 points per game. While nobody will confuse Utah for a great defensive team, their 100.3 points per game allowed at home is still an advantage over the defensive numbers Phoenix has put up, especially when you consider the fact that Utah's opponents have a slightly higher scoring average than the Suns have faced this year.

This matchup fits into a profitable system to play on the Jazz. You should take home underdogs like Utah when they are well rested, playing five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the rested team, and it has resulted in a 49-27 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* No Brainer on California +

The Golden Bears picked up a two point win the last time they faced Arizona, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by the amount of points it will take for Arizona to cover the spread. The oddsmakers have been giving the Wildcats far too much credit recently. Arizona has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games, and the Wildcats have two straight up losses during that stretch.

The Golden Bears matchup well with Arizona, and that makes this double-digit line far too many points. Cal is a great rebounding team putting up comparable numbers to the Wildcats. The Golden Bears also have a slight advantage in turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Wildcats commit 11 turnovers per game. The Golden Bears have shown several times throughout the year that they are an underrated team defensively. They held the Wildcats to a mere 58 points in the first meeting of the season.

This matchup fits into a system to fade the Wildcats. You should play against home teams like Arizona when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts and they are +6 or more in rebounding margin, when they are facing a team allowing 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and are +3 to +6 in rebounding margin. This system identifies matchups where the home team is being overvalued, and it has resulted in an 83-40 (68%) record against the spread.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Golden State Warriors -

The Chicago Bulls are in a tough spot tonight after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days. Typically the first thing to go for a tired team is its defense, and unfortunately for Chicago, the defense is the only thing that has allowed them to remain competitive this season.

Golden State has been playing extremely well recently. The Warriors have won five of their last six games with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point against Miami. Over their last five games the Warriors have averaged 102 points per game, while surrendering a mere 96.8 points per game. Golden State's defense should have no problem shutting down this Bulls team that averages just 92.8 points per game.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Chicago. You should play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road win. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 90-48 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Cavaliers look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost three consecutive games, and now have to play on the road against one of the best teams in the league. There is not a lot to motivate Cleveland at this point, so I expect to see the Cavaliers struggle in this matchup with the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up another huge number against this Cavaliers team that has surrendered 104.4 points per game on the road. Cleveland is also playing in a tough spot after losing at home to Toronto last night and now playing the second half of a back-to-back against one of the league's best teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they have been outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a matchup allowing 120 points or more. This system is an 88-56 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Mountain West Game of the Month on San Jose State +

San Diego State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their win over Kansas in the first half of the season has earned them far more credit than they are worthy of. The Aztecs are lucky to have a three loss season. They came dangerously close to losing against Utah State in January, and they have recently played several games that were much closer than the final score would indicate.

San Jose State is typically a very good ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game on the season. In the first meeting of the season between these teams they had an uncharacteristically poor night of turnovers. While a small portion of that can be credited to San Diego State's defense, I think the majority of it was an anomaly. San Diego State typically only forces an average of 14 turnovers per game, and the Spartans posted 18 turnovers in that matchup. With less turnovers in this second meeting of the season San Jose State should easily be able to decrease their margin of loss to a number under 20 points.

This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 20 points or more like San Jose State when they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more and have a losing record on the season. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers because of their record, and it has resulted in a 54-22 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Utah State +

New Mexico is playing in a letdown spot today coming off a win over No. 6 ranked San Diego State in their last outing. They also have a tough road game on deck, so the Lobos are playing the perfect situation to look past the Utah state Aggies tonight. For the Aggies this will be the last ranked opponent on the schedule this year, so they should be playing with plenty of motivation.

The Lobos have a single digit margin of victory against conference opponents this season, and I don't think they will be able to repeat the performance from the last time these teams met. Utah State is a very good rebounding team, and they had a poor showing on the boards in that game. With a closer rebounding margin in this matchup the Lobos will not get the extra shot attempts they had in that first meeting of the season, and that will lead to a the game being decided by a single digit margin.

This matchup fits into a system to play against New Mexico. You should fade teams like the Lobos when they are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent, and they have won over 80% of their games on the season and are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system is 106-70 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Chicago Bulls -

The Bulls are the better team, and they are the hot team coming into this matchup with Atlanta. Chicago has won five of its last six games both straight up and against the spread. I look for them to bounce back with a strong performance after losing to Miami in their last outing.

The Hawks defense has been bad all season allowing 101.5 points per game, but they have been especially bad recently allowing 107.8 points per game over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have surrendered a mere 87 points per game over their last five games. I don't think Chicago will have any problem shutting Atlanta down in this game since the Hawks offense is also in decline compared to their season numbers, averaging just 98.4 points per game the last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bulls. You should play against home teams with a line under three points when they are revenging a loss to their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 141-84 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia Tech +

While nobody will confuse Virginia Tech for a great team, they are certainly good enough to keep this game within 20 points. The Hokies have played some great basketball recently. They took Pittsburgh to double overtime on the road, beat Miami, stuck to within four points of No. 14 ranked Virginia and lost by just seven points to NC State. Virginia Tech has lost by 21 points or more only twice this season, and those matchups did not come in any of their four games played against ranked opponents.

The Blue Devils have played some great basketball this year, but I don't think they have played well enough to justify a 20+ point line. They are averaging 75.6 points per game against conference opponents, while allowing 64.9 points in those games. Their average margin of victory is nowhere near enough to cover such a large spread. The Blue Devils are also playing in a letdown spot after beating No. 1 Syracuse in their last outing.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Virginia Tech. You should play against favorites of 20 points or more like Duke when they have covered the spread in six of their last eight games and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, when they are playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 32-9 (78%) against the spread.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks -

The New York Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and have failed to cover the spread in seven of those 10 matchups. New York has surrendered 106.2 points per game over its last five games which is very telling about their lack of effort recently.

The Mavericks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won eight of their last 10 games. They are facing a Knicks team that is 2-10 ATS in home games when facing a non-conference opponent this season. The Knicks are also 9-20 ATS as an underdog, and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this year. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have proved to be a great team to back when playing on the road. They are 20-10 ATS, and should easily improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Mavericks. You should play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and they are playing a poor defensive team that has surrendered 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 55-23 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Samford -

The Citadel Bulldogs are the worst team in the Southern Conference. They have yet to win a game against a conference opponent, with the average loss in those games coming by 12 points. Defensively Citadel has been horrible this season. They are surrendering 75 points per game so the Samford Bulldogs should have no problem getting points on the board.

Samford is a much better shooting team than the Citadel. The Samford Bulldogs are making 47.4 percent of their shot attempts to 42.1 percent from the Citadel Bulldogs. Samford is 11-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games while the Citadel is 20-37 ATS in home games when playing a team with a losing record.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Samford. You should play against home teams like the Citadel when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts, but allow opponents to make over 36.5 percent of their three point attempts in a game involving two teams that are -3 to -6 in rebounding margin after 15 or more games. This system has a 39-13 (75%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Washington State +

The Ducks got off to a fast start during non-conference play this season, but they have really struggled against Pac-12 opponents. I think they are still one of the most overrated teams in the conference, and that is backed up by the fact that they have a 4-9 ATS record in conference games. Washington State may not have a great record, but they are playing better recently. They have been within 14 points or less in five of their last six games, which includes several road games against some very good Pac-12 teams.

This line is also being inflated higher than it should be due to the result of the first meeting of the season between these teams. I think that game can be chalked up as an anomaly because there is no way the Cougars will shoot 25 percent from the field again. I don't credit Washington State's poor shooting in that game to solid defensive play from the Ducks either. Oregon has actually proved to be soft defensively this season surrendering 75.1 points per game and allowing opponents to make over 44 percent of their shot attempts.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington State when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are coming off two consecutive losses of 10 points or more to conference opponents. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the road team, and it has resulted in a 261-176 (60%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league, and they should pick up a big win at home against Washington today. Cleveland has won six of its last seven games, covering the spread in all seven of those matchups. The Wizards on the other hand are coming into this game having lost five of their last eight games.

A big reason for the Cavaliers recent success has been outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games they have held opponents to just 92.8 points per game. Cleveland has also turned things on offensively, scoring 101.6 points per game during that five game stretch. They should have another big night against the Wizards because Washington will be run down playing in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting New Orleans last night.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cavaliers. You should play against teams like Washington that are revenging a loss to their opponent when the line is three points or less, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 228-137 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rider -

Rider should have no problem dominating this game from start to finish. Siena has been horrible on the road this season posting a 3-12 record. They are averaging a mere 67.8 points while allowing 75.4 points in road games. I expect them to give up a big number against Rider today since the Broncs are a strong team offensively averaging 75.3 points per game at home.

The Broncs will have a big advantage in turnover margin today. Siena has been a horrible ball control team this season. They are committing 15 turnovers per game, while forcing just 11 turnovers from opponents when playing on the road. Rider on the other hand has averaged 13 turnover per game, but when playing at home they are forcing an average of 15 turnovers from their opponents.

Rider is a very good three point shooting team. They are making over 40 percent of their attempts this season. Siena has struggled against good three point shooting teams, posting a 3-11 ATS record against teams making over 37 percent of their attempts. Siena is also 4-13 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers per game or less after 15 or more games on the season.

4* Ivy league Game of the Week on Yale +

Yale plus the points is an easy call in this matchup. The Bulldogs have been on fire recently, winning nine of their last 10 games and posting a 7-2 ATS record during that stretch. Columbia on the other hand has been struggling, losing four of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread. Yale is second in the Ivy League standings with an 8-1 record. Harvard currently holds first place with a 9-1 conference record, but the Bulldogs won at Harvard earlier this month.

Yale is a very good rebounding team. They average 10 offensive rebounds per game, and that should give them a big advantage over the Lions. Columbia is not a strong rebounding team so I expect to see the Bulldogs getting a lot of second chance shot attempts. The Bulldogs are also a very good foul drawing team, forcing opponents to commit an average of 22 personal fouls per game. Those extra attempts from the free throw line give the Bulldogs a huge advantage late in the game.

Columbia's poor pressure defense will cost them today. Yale is 22-8 ATS in road games against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games. They are also 9-1 ATS against teams winning 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. The Bulldogs have also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams. Over the last three seasons Yale is both 4-1 straight up and against the spread when facing the Lions. These teams met last month and the Bulldogs picked up a 10 point win. A change in venue will not be enough to swing things in the Lions favor today.

4* Vegas Insider on on BYU -

The Cougars will have several key statistical advantages in this matchup. First of all, they rank third in the country averaging 85.1 points per game. The Pilots do not have enough scoring options to keep pace with BYU. The Cougars are also the sixth ranked team in the country in rebounds per game with 41.4.

The advantages don't end in scoring and on the boards. BYU has also proved the be the better ball control team this season. They are averaging a mere 11 turnovers per game, and are poised to improve on that number against the soft Portland defense. The Pilots only statistical advantage in this matchup is their free throw shooting ability, but that won't do them a lot of good against this Cougars team that does a great job of staying out of foul trouble when playing at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Cougars. You should play on an explosive offensive team like BYU when they are averaging over 76 points per game and playing a team that averages 74 to 76 points per game, after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. This system is 221-143 (61%) against the spread.

3* Main Event on Washington Wizards -

The Washington Wizards are coming off a big road win in their last outing. They have had two days of rest to prepare for this matchup where they will host a Pelicans team that has lost four of its last five games. The Wizards have put up solid numbers at home this season. They are averaging 100.9 points per game, and should have no problem scoring on a New Orleans defense that has allowed 103.1 points per game when playing on the road.

The Pelicans are playing in a very tough spot. This will be their third game in the last four days, and the second half of a back-to-back set of road games. New Orleans has been really struggling recently on the offensive end of the court. Over their last five games they are averaging a mere 92.4 points per game. I don't think the Pelicans can keep this game close given their tough schedule and lack of offense being produced right now.

These teams met last month in New Orleans and it was Washington that left with a six point win. The Pelicans are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss at home as a favorite. The Wizards have been a great team to back in non-conference matchups over the last two seasons. They have a 33-18 ATS record in those games, and that is a trend that should continue today against the Pelicans.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Rice +

While overall records may favor East Carolina, these teams are actually much closer in talent level than this line indicates. When you look at how they have performed against common opponents it is easy to see that Rice is every bit as good as East Carolina. The Owls are 2-10 against C-USA opponents, while the Pirates are 3-9 against C-USA teams. Both teams have averaged around 60 points per game against their common opponents while surrendering close to 70 points per game.

Rice will have an advantage on the boards in this matchup. They have limited opponents to just nine offensive rebounds per game this season to 11 allowed by the Pirates. These teams also have comparable styles of play, with both relying heavily on their three-point shooting ability. If Rice gets hot from three-point land, the Owls will not only have a chance to cover the spread, but also win this game straight up. The Owls average 26 three point attempts per game on the road and are making 34 percent of those attempts which is right in line with the Pirates shooting percentages on an average of 24 three-point attempts.

The Owls are 19-7 ATS against teams who make eight or more three-point shots per game after 15 or more games. East Carolina is 39-65 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games and they are 40-68 ATS after four straight games of forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. With the way these teams matchup I expect this to be a very close game.

5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on La Salle +

The Explorers have played a tough stretch of games recently, and I think that has them coming into this matchup against Richmond a little underrated. La Salle is a much better team than their record indicates, and I like them to play a great game against the Spiders. Richmond has been extremely inconsistent this season and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers when playing at home leading to a losing record against the spread.

Statistically this matchup should be very close. The Explorers are averaging 68.5 points per game while the Spiders are averaging 69.4 points per game. Defensively La Salle has played extremely well on the road, allowing a mere 66.8 points per game. Richmond is allowing 66 points per game overall this season. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be close and that means the value is with La Salle.

Richmond is a team that relies heavily on their ability to win the turnover margin. They are 11-22 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Spiders are not a good ball movement team, and I think that plays into La Salle's favor. The Explorers are 23-9 ATS against poor passing teams that are averaging less than 12 assists per game after 15 or more games.

4* No Brainer on Tulsa -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. These teams may have similar overall records, but Tulsa is clearly the better team. The Golden Hurricane have a 9-3 record against conference opponents this season, while the Golden Panthers come into this matchup with a 5-7 record against C-USA opponents. Tulsa is 10-2 against the spread in those games.

The Golden Hurricane's biggest advantage in this matchup is their defense. Over their last five games they have held opponents to a mere 53.8 points per game. Against all conference opponents they are surrendering 61.6 points per game. That gives Tulsa a big advantage over this Florida International team that is allowing over 70 points per game this season. The Golden Panthers have not been a high scoring team either, averaging a mere 65.9 points per game at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Hurricane. You should play on road favorites that are coming off three straight wins over conference opponents, and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 84-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Central Florida +

Central Florida is the better team, and I like their chances to pull off the upset in Houston today. We will take the points, but the Cougars are clearly outmatched in this game. They have lost seven of their last eight games and are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding anytime soon.

Central Florida is on a bit of a losing streak too, but six of their last seven losses have come against ranked opponents. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule recently, and that should make the Cougars look like more like a practice squad today. Over their last five games the Cougars have surrendered 77 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Central Florida. You should play on a road team like the Knights in a matchup involving two teams allowing 67 to 74 points per game, when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 218-135 (62%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

Prior to the All-Star break it appeared that Portland's season was quickly falling apart. The Blazers lost six of their last nine games entering the break. With a chance to regroup Portland was expected to get right back to their winning ways, but that was not the case coming out of the All-Star break. The Blazers were a three point home favorite against the Spurs, and ended up losing that game outright.

Utah comes into this matchup having won three of its last four games. The Jazz will never be mistaken for a playoff contender this year, but I do think they are more than capable of sticking close with the Blazers. Portland got off to a fast start this season, but that quickly earned them a reputation as one of the league's most overrated teams. I think the oddsmakers are still giving the Blazers more credit than they deserve, and that makes the Jazz a solid value play today.

Portland is 2-11 ATS in home games when coming off three or more consecutive losses. They are also 13-24 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. The Jazz on the other hand come into this matchup with a 66-43 ATS record when coming off two straight games outrebounding opponents by 10 or more boards. Utah is playing quality basketball right now, and I think they will give the Blazers a scare in this matchup.