|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-23-15||Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5||Top||115-80||Loss||-108||18 h 30 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Rockets +
|05-22-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197||Top||94-82||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER
These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%.
The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2.
UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197!
|05-21-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||98-99||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
While the Warriors ended up winning Game 1 by just 4-points, there were some positive signs that point to a blowout victory in Game 2. Golden State trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd quarter and later led by as many as 11. In just a little over a half, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 37-points.
With Dwight Howard likely sidelined and not effective if he does play, I just don't see the Warriors taking their foot off the gas, especially after losing Game 2 at home after winning Game 1 in their last series against Memphis.
You also have to factor in that James Harden put up 28 on 11 of 20 shooting in Game 1 and to do so had to make a number of difficult shots. Even if Harden has another strong game, I still think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State!
|05-20-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1||Top||97-89||Loss||-102||11 h 26 m||Show|
5* Cavaliers/Hawks NBA No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
Both of these teams closed out their last series with 3 straight wins after falling into an early 1-2 series deficit. While you could make a strong case for both teams in Game 1, I think the value here is clearly with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on their home floor.
Atlanta proved to be a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Cleveland won the first game of the series at home, but would drop the last 3 by a combined 46 points. Cleveland had no answer defensively in those 3 losses, as the Hawks shot 50% or better in all 3 of their wins. With Cleveland playing without Love and Irving clearly at less than 100%, Atlanta provided a much better matchup here than most people think.
Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS in their 17 games this season when listed as an underdog and 4-14 in their last 18 road games when revenging a road loss. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road dog. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|05-19-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||106-110||Loss||-110||11 h 16 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Warriors -
While the Rockets pulled off the shocking comeback against the Clippers, I'm not expecting Houston to put up much of a fight against the Warriors. While 10-points is a lot to be laying in a playoff game, keep in mind that Golden State swept the season series 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
I believe Houston's success at the end of the Clippers series was more a result of LA's starters running out of gas. The Clippers featured a thin rotation that just couldn't hold up. When they were were clicking they embarrassed Houston early in the series and that's what I'm expecting to see here, as the Warriors feature a deep roster and matches up well with the Rockets.
The other big factor here is rest. Golden State has been off since Friday, while Houston just played a do or die Game 7 on Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Rockets to come out with the intensity needed to keep it close on the road against a team like the Warriors. I also think the fact that Golden State fell behind early against Memphis will have them extra motivated to start the series strong.
Warriors are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing just their 6th game in a span of 14 days and have won these by an average score of 111.7 to 94.1 (+17.6 ppg). Golden State is also 12-4 in their last 16 off 3 straight wins by 10+ points and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State!
|05-17-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets||Top||100-113||Loss||-109||6 h 41 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
The better team advanced to the conference finals in each of the other 3 series and I expect this one to be no different. The Clippers got outplayed in Game 5 at Houston and let their foot off the gas at home in Game 6. Even with the Rockets getting Game 7 at home, I like the Clipper to come out with a win to move on to face Golden State.
Road favorites playing with double-revenge after a game where the opponent played on the road and each team scored 100+ points have gone 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1996. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 8-2 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Los Angeles!
|05-15-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197.5||Top||94-91||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER
These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4.
It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up.
UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!
|05-14-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2||Top||94-73||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
Cleveland has taken back control of the series with two straight wins to lead 3-2, but I look for them to really struggle here in Game 6 against a Bulls team with their backs against the wall. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers invested a lot in those two wins, as those were two games they couldn't afford to lose.
Both of those games came right down to the wire and Chicago was missing a key part in their offense in Gasol, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Getting Gasol back makes the Bulls a much more dangerous team and I believe it will be the difference in this one.
Cavaliers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 80% (32-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-13-15||Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||78-98||Loss||-103||12 h 29 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Grizzlies +
While the Warriors were able to come away with an easy 101-84 win at Memphis to tie up the series at 2-2, I don't see them blowing out the Grizzlies in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that Memphis won at Golden State 97-90 in Game 2 as a 10-point dog.
This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, as they laid everything they had on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I do think there's a good chance that Golden State wins this game, but 9.5-points is a lot to cover, especially the way these two teams have been grinding it out defensively.
Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends add up to form a strong 79% (30-8) system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|05-12-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||103-124||Loss||-110||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
While the Rockets are facing elimination and this may seem like the spot to back them as a small home dog, I just don't think Houston is going to be able to extend the series to a Game 6. Doc Rivers understands the importance of closing out the series and getting that extra rest before the conference finals, especially with Paul nursing a hamstring injury.
Houston has already lost at home to the Clippers without Paul and were fortunate to win Game 2 with Paul sidelined. They clearly had a lot to play for in their two games in LA and they didn't show up in either of those contests, getting blown out by 25 points in Game 3 and 33 points in Game 4.
Clippers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games overall, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against poor free throw shooting teams that are making 71% or less from the charity line and 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 27 or more free throw attempts/game. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (36-7) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|05-11-15||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 196||101-84||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
Each of the first three games in this series have failed to surpass 188 points, yet the books continue to post a total around 196-198 points. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that these two teams aren't putting up a ton of points. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies were 4th.
The home team typically is the one that dictates the tempo and Memphis clearly wants to slow this game down and not let the Warriors get into any sort of rhythm offensively. The Grizzlies are doing an excellent job of defending the 3-point line and a lot of that has to do with the perimeter defense of Conley and Allen.
I'm expecting all out defensive effort here from both teams, as I think both teams are aware that this game could very well decide the series. UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog, 23-3 in their last 26 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!
|05-10-15||Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||95-128||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Clippers NBA No Limit Top Play on Rockets +
I'm expecting a much better effort defensively from Houston in Game 3 and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. These two teams are more evenly matched than the spread would indicate and I don't see there being such a drastic difference in shooting percentage in Game 4. The Clippers shot 55.4% from the field in Game 3, while the Rockets hit just 39.8% of their attempts.
This is a zig-zag theory play at it's finest and so far the system has been hitting at a high rate here in the conference quarterfinals. Adding to that is the fact that the Rockets are 20-8 in their last 28 after a defeat and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a loss of 10+ points.
Road underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 75-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% 5-year system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-09-15||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 197||89-99||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
4* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA Playoffs No Brainer on UNDER
While the first two games in this series have finished with a final combined score of 187 points, the total hasn't really moved due to the public liking to back the OVER in Golden State games. I just don't see this turning into an offensive shootout.
Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially on their home floor. Conley and Allen are more than capable of slowing down Curry and Thompson and that really makes it difficult for the Warriors to get into a rhythm offensively. Golden State is equally as strong defensively and I think they turn their focus to that side of the ball in Game 3 on the road. Memphis is looking to slow the game way down and aren't a great outside shooting team.
UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 off an upset win as a road underdog. UNDER is also 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!
|05-08-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||Top||96-99||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
Cleveland came out on a mission in Game 2 to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series and the Bulls simply weren't able to match that intensity off that big win in Game 1. I still think Chicago is the better team here with the Cavaliers missing Love and really like the value we are getting with the Bulls laying just 1.5-points at home.
Cleveland was on fire from downtown in Game 2, hitting 46% (12-26). I just don't see that kind of shooting carrying over on the road against a Bulls defense that will be a lot better than it was in Game 2. Cavaliers rely too much on 1-on-1 basketball with James and Irving and need them to be special just to keep it close.
When the books list the Cavs as an underdog, it's been a wise move to take the favorite, as Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS this season when getting points. The Cavs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a win by 10+ points. Chicago on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a loss of 10+ points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points. These trends combine to form a 80% (33-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-06-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5||Top||109-115||Loss||-107||12 h 42 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Rockets -
LA shocked Houston in Game 1 by winning on the road and stealing the homecourt advantage without Chris Paul in the lineup. I don't know if it was the long layoff from the first series or the fact that they thought it would be an easy win with Paul on the sidelines, but the Rockets clearly didn't show up to play.
That's not going to be the case in Game 2. The Rockets have to treat this like a Game 7, as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series. The Clippers on the other hand are in a prime letdown spot. They got the split they wanted and I would be shocked if Paul played tonight. I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry in favor of the Rockets, as LA is already likely looking ahead to Game 3.
Houston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110+ points and 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games when revenging a loss. Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss and 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 or more. These trends combine to form a strong 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-05-15||Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||97-90||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies were without one of their most important pieces in point guard Mike Conley in Game 1 and shot a dreadful 25% from the 3-point line in a 15-point defeat. With Conley expected to return and a good chance Memphis won't be as bad from long-distance, I believe we are getting some incredible value here with the Grizzlies catching double-digits in Game 2.
One of the important things to note is that Memphis' defense played well in the series opener, limiting the Warriors to just 101 points. Conley not only helps out offensively, but his defensive presence on Curry should make a big difference. I don't think it's out of the question that Memphis wins this game outright.
Home favorites that won more than 75% of their games and leading in a playoff series are just 13-37 ATS against a team with a winning record since 1996. That's a 74% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|05-04-15||Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194.5||Top||99-92||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193.
With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games.
Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers).
I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER!
|05-03-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197||Top||86-101||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.
A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.
Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."
UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!
|05-02-15||San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||109-111||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs +
The home team is just 1-4 in the last 5 games of the series and that lone win was the Spurs 100-73 blowout victory in Game 3. I look for the trend of the road dominance to continue in Game 7. Unlike the Clippers, San Antonio knows how to close out a series.
The big key here for me is that the Clippers have had to rely so much on their starters that it's hard for me to envision them having enough left in the tank to pull out the win. They clearly wanted it more than the Spurs in Game 6, but now we are going to see San Antonio lay it all on the line and they have a lot more gas left in the tank.
Spurs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 playoff games when tied in a series, 20-7 in their last 27 off a home loss and 24-7 in their last 31 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (72-26) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|05-01-15||Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||111-87||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest.
I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-30-15||Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||120-66||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points.
Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-29-15||Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200||Top||97-107||Loss||-103||9 h 55 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER
I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.
Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.
UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-28-15||Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 222||94-103||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER
While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.
Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.
UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-27-15||Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||115-120||Loss||-103||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks.
Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going.
The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season.
Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-26-15||Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||114-105||Win||100||26 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers +
This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4.
I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4.
Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-25-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3||Top||115-109||Loss||-102||13 h 51 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers -
After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line.
The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one.
Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!
|04-24-15||Toronto Raptors +5 v. Washington Wizards||99-106||Loss||-115||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* Wizards/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors +
The Raptors became just the 5th team since 2002 to fall behind 0-2 with homecourt advantage in their first two games. The good news for Toronto is that each of the previous 4 in this spot have not only went on to cover the spread in Game 3, but have won the contest outright.
I believe we are going to see this trend continue. Despite how poorly the Raptors played in those first two games at home, they had a chance to win both of those. Washington isn't a team with a lot of playoff experience, which could have them lowering their guard and not quite understanding the importance of this game.
Toronto won the only regular season meeting at Washington 120-116 as a 5-point dog and were up by 15-points at the half. Wizards are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games when listed as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while Toronto is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after failing to cover 2 or more consecutive games and 7-0 in their last 7 road games after playing their last game as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (42-13) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|04-23-15||Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks +
This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate.
While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here.
Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot.
Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!
|04-22-15||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1||Top||111-107||Loss||-105||13 h 17 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers -
The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury.
Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002.
Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-21-15||Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 215.5||Top||99-111||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER
These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.
The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.
It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.
UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!
|04-20-15||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187||Top||82-91||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER
It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.
I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.
The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.
UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-19-15||Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189||86-100||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER
Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.
UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-18-15||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team.
Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover.
Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-15-15||San Antonio Spurs -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans||Top||103-108||Loss||-115||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs -
The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well.
With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans.
The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs.
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|04-14-15||Toronto Raptors -1.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||93-95||Loss||-105||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown.
Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|04-13-15||Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets +1.5||113-86||Loss||-110||9 h 36 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Nets NBA Vegas Insider on Nets +
While the Bulls have won two straight and got a big time performance out of Derrick Rose in his 3rd game back from injury, Chicago has not performed well on the road of late. In fact, the Bulls are just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road haven't won consecutive away games since early February.
While the Bulls can afford a loss at this point, this is essentially a playoff game for the Nets. Brooklyn is tied for the 8th and final spot in the East with Indiana and 1-game back of 7th place Boston. They hold the tiebreaker over the Pacers, but a loss here would really cripple their chances. Nets have won 5 of their last 6 at home with the only loss coming to Atlanta by a final of 111-114.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Bulls. Teams revenging a home loss against an opponent that is coming off a road loss by 10 or more and the line is set at +3 to -3 are just 20-46 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!
|04-12-15||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 207.5||Top||104-116||Loss||-105||9 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER
With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.
These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!
|04-11-15||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic OVER 192||80-79||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER
While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).
The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.
OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!
|04-10-15||Toronto Raptors v. Orlando Magic +6||101-99||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Magic +
This might seem like an obvious spot to take the Raptors, given they are fighting for playoff position and first round home court advantage, while the Magic were out of the race a long time ago. I don't believe that's the case at all.
Orlando hasn't thrown in the towel at all and come in riding a 3-game winning streak, which includes a 105-103 home win over the Bulls as a 7-point dog in their last contest. While Toronto enters off a 92-74 blowout win at Charlotte, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games.
Toronto is also just 2-10 ATS this season off a road win by 10+ points, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. They are also just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 1-day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!
|04-09-15||Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Miami Heat||89-78||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Heat NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls +
The Bulls are showing some great value here as an underdog. While it might appear the Heat have more to play for, seeing they are 1-game out of the 8th and final playoff spot, Chicago is just 1-game in front of 5th place Washington and in danger of not having home court advantage in the first round.
It might also be perceived that the Bulls are at a disadvantage given their recent road woes and the fact that they are playing on no rest, but I'm not concerned. Butler was the only player to log more than 35 minutes last night. Not to mention the Bulls lost to the Magic 103-105, which is going to have them extra motivated to come out strong tonight.
What a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that Miami has not been playing well at all of late. The Heat were able to escape with a 105-100 win at home over Charlotte last time out, but are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10.
Chicago will also be playing with revenge from a 84-96 home loss as a 7.5-point favorite back on 1/25. Bulls are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a game they failed to cover. Miami 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 after a SU win and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus the Central. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (84-34) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-08-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Milwaukee Bucks +7.5||104-99||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks +
With Cleveland's 99-94 home win over the Bulls on Sunday, they are all but locked into the No. 2 spot in the east. The Cavaliers have a 4-game lead over the Bulls with 5 to play and also hold the tiebreaker over Chicago.
While Cleveland is in a position to coast through the rest of the regular season and start focusing on making sue their guys are healthy and fresh for what figures to be a long playoff run, the Bucks are still trying to secure a spot in the postseason. Milwaukee is just 3.5 ahead of 9th place Miami. While they figure to hold on to that lead, they are just 2 in front of 7th place Brooklyn and 3 ahead of 8th place Boston. Falling back to either of those spots, would mean a first round matchup against either the Hawks or Cavs.
As good as the Cavaliers have been at home, they are just 21-18 on the road and are only outscoring opponents by 2.4 ppg. Defense has been the main culprit for their road struggles, as they are giving up 101.0 ppg. Cleveland is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division games , while the Bucks are 9-4 in their last 13 against the Central. Take Milwaukee!
|04-07-15||Charlotte Hornets v. Miami Heat UNDER 189||Top||100-105||Loss||-105||9 h 22 m||Show|
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER
Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.
I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.
UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-06-15||Wisconsin v. Duke +1||63-68||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
4* NCAA Championship Game Vegas Insider on Duke +
As impressive as the Badgers win over Kentucky was in Saturday's Final Four showdown, that's a win that can be extremely difficult to bounce back from in just a matter of two days. Beating the Wildcats was like winning the National Championship.
Duke on the other hand has cruised to the title game. Their closest game in the tournament was a 6-point win over Utah (63-57) and that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. Another big factor here is that the Blue Devils went on the road and beat Wisconsin 80-70 in non-conference play and it could have been a lot worse. Duke shot 65.2% from the field, while limiting the Badgers to just 40.7%. Unlike Kentucky, the Blue Devils have the outside shooting and speed on the perimeter that can exploit the Badgers defense.
Duke is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 tournament games, 11-3 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10+ points, 6-0 in their last 6 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer ppg. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Blue Devils. Take Duke!
|04-06-15||Portland Trail Blazers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 202||96-106||Push||0||10 h 45 m||Show|
3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER
This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.
I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.
UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-05-15||Chicago Bulls +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||94-99||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on Bulls +
The Cavaliers are getting way too much respect here as a near double-digit home favorite against a Bulls team that has won 6 of 8 and are still fighting to hold on to the No. 3 spot in the east. Cleveland has a comfortable 3-game lead over Chicago for the No. 2 spot with just 6 to play.
The Bulls might not have Rose, but have more than enough to win this game outright and at worse keep it close enough to cover. Chicago has really kicked it in gear defensively down the stretch and Bulls head coach tom Thibodeau has a history of being able to slow down James. I'm looking for both teams to bring the defensive intensity and a low scoring competitive game certainly favors Chicago as a 9-point dog.
Cavs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 division games, while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a contest where they failed to cover the spread. Take Chicago!
|04-04-15||New Orleans Pelicans v. Portland Trail Blazers -5||90-99||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Trail Blazers -
Portland has had their way with the Pelicans in their two meetings so far this season. They won 102-93 at home on Nov. 17 and 114-88 at New Orleans on Dec. 12. The Trail Blazers had lost 5 straight, but have since won 5 of their last and are still fighting for playoff position.
While the Pelicans have been playing well of late and are in a heated race for the 8th and final spot in the west, this is a horrible spot for New Orleans. They will be playing on no rest after last night's game at Sacramento and this will be their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland also played last night, but didn't have to use up much energy in a 30-point rout of the Lakers.
Something else to keep in mind with New Orleans, is that their 4-game winning streak has come against the Kings (twice), Timberwolves and Lakers. The Pelicans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Portland!
|04-04-15||Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5||Top||71-64||Loss||-108||29 h 53 m||Show|
5* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four No Limit Top Play on Kentucky -
Kentucky struggled against Notre Dame, while Wisconsin played their most impressive game of the tournament in their win over Arizona. I believe it’s created some great value on the Wildcats as a mere 5-point favorite.
What a lot of people are over-looking is just how good a team Notre Dame is. Those that have followed the Irish closely all season, weren’t the least bit surprised to see them give Kentucky a major scare. Notre Dame does an excellent job of spacing the floor with a lot of great shooters. While Wisconsin is also an efficient offensive team that can spread the floor, they are essentially a 2-man show with Karminsky and Dekker. Kentucky is going to focus all their attention on stopping these two and I just don't think Wisconsin has enough around them to keep this close enough to cover.
You also have to take into consideration that Kentucky was in a bit of a letdown spot after their 39-point blowout win over West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Whether or not that was the case, that close call against the Irish will have the Wildcats 100% locked in on the Badgers.
It’s easy to fall in love with a team like Wisconsin, who is coming off an amazing performance and with a big revenge card from last year’s heartbreaking loss, but you can’t overlook the fact that the Badgers hadn’t played great in their first three tournament games and were extremely fortunate to get past North Carolina in the Sweet 16.
It’s not very often you will get a chance to back a team that’s 38-0 as a 5-point favorite. Unless you think the Badgers are going to win outright, I believe you have to take your chances with Kentucky to win here by 6 or more. Wildcats are 3-0 ATS this season when they have had 5 or 6 days of rest. Take Kentucky!
|04-03-15||Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||93-123||Loss||-105||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* NBA Undervalued Underdog Game of the Month on Nuggets +
While the Spurs are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, not once during this stretch have they been laying this many points. In fact, the last time San Antonio was this big of a favorite, was at New York, where they lost outright 100-104 as a 14-point favorite. As good as the Spurs are playing right now, this line has been drastically inflated.
Denver might be out of the playoff picture, but this is a game I believe you can be confident they will show up to play. The Nuggets have lost all 3 meetings so far this season, but have been able to keep it respectable, as all 3 losses have come by 10-points or less, including a 9-point loss in the most recent meeting in San Antonio.
San Antonio is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when they come in having played 5 consecutive games as a favorite, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10+ points that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 87-50 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!
|04-03-15||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 203.5||92-100||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA Total No Brainer on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER
Only once in the last 8 meetings between these two teams have they combined for more than 200 points. All 3 meetings this season have seen 194 or fewer points. In the lone meeting in Memphis, the two combined for a mere 159 points.
The big reason we are seeing such a high total here is due to the Thunder coming off a game against Dallas where the two teams combined for a staggering 266 points. I just don't see that kind of game here. Memphis is a dominant defensive team and rarely give up a big number on their home floor. At the same time, the Grizzlies are not a good offensive team and like to play at a slow pace.
Couple extra factors here that I believe favor a low-scoring game. Memphis has fallen a .5-game back of the Rockets for the No. 2 spot in the west. Getting out of No. 3 and back into No. 2 is crucial, as the No. 3 seed will likely have to open with either the Spurs or Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City became the first team since 1995 to have 3 players score 30+ points in a losing effort in that loss to Dallas and have their defensive to blame. I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball. Thunder are also just 1.5-games ahead of surging New Orleans for the 8th and final playoff spot.
UNDER is 14-1 in Memphis' last 15 games after covering as a double-digit favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 after allowing 125+ and 17-7 in their last 24 after making 12 or more 3-point shots. These trends combine to form a 80% (70-18) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-03-15||Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 206.5||109-114||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nets OVER
The Nets are playing some of their best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has scored 100+ in 4 straight games and are averaging 107.3 ppg over their last 8. Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut all season, as the Raptors rank 4th in the league at 104.2 ppg. Of importance here is that their offense has been even better on the road, where they are averaging 105.9 ppg.
While the Nets have found their mojo offensively, they are still struggling to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn comes in allowing 100.6 ppg on the season and are giving 108.0 ppg over their last 5 at home. Toronto on the other hand has really struggled defensively on the road. The Raptors are allowing 104.3 ppg away from home and allowing teams to shoot 47% from the field. The fewest points Toronto has allowed on the road in their last 12 is 98.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 24-3 since 1996 in games where you have a total set at 200 or more points, where the home team has won 8 or more of their last 10 games, yet are only winning between 40% to 49% of their games on the season. That's a 89% system. Take the OVER!
|04-02-15||Stanford -1.5 v. Miami (FL)||66-64||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
4* Stanford/Miami NIT Vegas Insider on Stanford -
I'll gladly back the Cardinal as a small favorite in the NIT Championship Game against a hobbled Miami team. The Hurricanes had already been playing without one of their best players in Angel Rodriguez and now will be without big man Tonye Jekiri, who suffered a concussion in Miami's semifinal win over Temple and has been ruled out. Jekiri is 3rd on the team in scoring (8.6 ppg) and tops in rebounding (9.9 rpg) and block shots (1.4 bpg). No one else on Miami averages more than 5 boards.
It's not like Miami has been dominating teams on their way to the title game, as their 4 NIT wins have come by a combined 16 points. In comparison, Stanford's 4 wins have come by a combined 34 points. The loss of Jekiri is going to not only open up the door for more offensive rebounds for the Cardinal, but it should allow them to dominate inside without him to protect the rim. Take Stanford!
|04-02-15||Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 199||Top||88-114||Loss||-105||10 h 34 m||Show|
5* Heat/Cavs TNT Total of the Month on UNDER
The Cavaliers sit comfortably in 2nd in the east, 8 games back of Atlanta and 3 ahead of the Raptors and Bulls with just 7 games to play, but I don't see them taking their foot off the gas until they have secured the No. 2 spot. This also isn't just another opponent for Cleveland, as LeBron James will be going up against his former team in Miami, who the Cavaliers have lost twice to by double-digits, including the most recent meeting 92-106 in Miami on 3/16.
Anytime you play the Cavaliers it means something more, but the Heat are also in playoff mode. Miami holds the 7th spot in the east, thanks to a tie-breaker over Brooklyn, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Boston and 2 in front of 10th place Charlotte. Needless to say this game means a lot to the Heat.
With the importance of this matchup for both teams, combined with the fact that we have two strong defensive teams playing in a nationally televised game on TNT, I'm expecting this one to go under the total set of 199. Miami is giving up just 95.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing only 95.8 ppg.
UNDER is 10-2 in the Heat's last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 21-6 in their last 27 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. UNDER is also 5-1 in Cavs' last 6 home games, 23-10 in their last 33 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-3-1 in their last 15 versus a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (78-25) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-01-15||New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||113-92||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Pelicans -
New Orleans currently sits in 9th place in the Western Conference, just 2.5-games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Losing to a team like the Lakers, home or away, is simply not an option for the Pelicans at this point in the season.
Los Angeles is coming off a win at Philadelphia in their last game, but haven't won back-to-back games since February and this is not a great spot for the Lakers. Getting motivated this late in the season can be extremely hard for a bad team like LA and even more so when they are coming off a lengthy 5-game road trip with their last two coming completely on the other side of the country.
The other big key here is that New Orleans has had their way with the Lakers this season, winning all three matchups, including each of the last two by 16+ points. Their dominance over LA has a lot to do with the Lakers not having anyone who can matchup against Anthony Davis, who is averaging 25.7 points on 69% shooting, 8.7 rebounds and 4 blocks in the 3 games during the season series.
Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after playing 2 straight road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6. These trends combine to form a 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!
|04-01-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3||126-122||Loss||-109||12 h 31 m||Show|
4* Clippers/Blazers NBA Heavy Hitter on Blazers -
This is a great spot and price to back the Trail Blazers at home against the Clippers. Portland has won 4 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 home games with the only loss coming against the league's best team in Golden State.
Speaking of the Warriors, Los Angeles just played a huge home game against Golden State last night that they desperately wanted to win. The Clippers ended up losing the contest and in the process they had all 5 starters play at least 39 minutes. It's going to be extremely difficult for them to come back with the kind of energy needed to compete with the Blazers on the road.
Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after their starters combined for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after a game with a combined score of 205 or more and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Portland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (47-17) system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!
|04-01-15||San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +9.5||103-91||Loss||-105||9 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +
As difficult as it may be to back Orlando given the recent performance of these two teams, I think the Magic are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point home dog. The Spurs are clearly trying to make a push for one of the top seeds in the Western Conference, but they also aren't going to push their veterans to the max and have nothing left for the playoffs. With San Antonio playing on no rest, don't be surprised to see some of their key players not play or have a strict minutes restriction.
This will also be the Spurs 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in the last 9 days, which I believe increases the likelihood that some players get some rest. Orlando on the other hand is coming into this game having not played since last Friday. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated against the defending champs on their home floor and keep in mind they only lost by 7 at San Antonio earlier this season.
There's a solid system in play here as well. Home underdogs who failed to cover the spread in their last game and are playing their 3rd or less game in the last 10 days are 84-47 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% System in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!
|03-31-15||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2||Top||110-106||Loss||-103||26 h 0 m||Show|
5* GS/LAC Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -
While Golden State has won 9 straight and 14 of 15 overall, this is a great spot to go against the Warriors, as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with their last win at Milwaukee. The focus now for Golden State will be getting ready for the playoffs, and that will like result in key players getting some time off.
The Clippers have won 7 straight, but they are still in a battle for playoff seeding, including home court in the first round. This game simply means a lot more to Los Angeles and I expect them to deliver at home.
Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams that allow 98-102 ppg after a combined score of 205+ in each of their last two games are 42-16 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|03-31-15||Stanford -2.5 v. Old Dominion||67-60||Win||100||25 h 39 m||Show|
4* Stanford/ODU NIT Vegas Insider on Stanford -
This is a great spot to fade Old Dominion, who has benefited in the NIT from getting to play all 3 of their games at home, where they haven't lost all season. I look for the big stage of Madison Square Garden to be too much for Old Dominion to overcome, while Stanford is much better prepared for the spotlight playing in the Pac-12.
One of the big keys here is that the Monarchs aren't near as good defensively on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion is holding opponents to 56.8 ppg and 39.8% shooting on the season, yet are allowing 62.1 ppg and 43.2% shooting on the road. Stanford is scoring a respectable 72.7 ppg and take good care of the basketball. They also shoot 72.5% from the free throw line and draw 20 fouls per game.
ODU is 9-24 ATS in their last 33 after 15+ games against strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 4+ boards per game and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when having won 12 or more of their last 15. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Cardinal, as neutral court favorites who are coming off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 103-56 ATS since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford!
|03-30-15||Phoenix Suns +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||86-109||Loss||-108||11 h 45 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Suns +
This may seem like a great spot to go against the Suns, who have lost 3 straight, will possibly be without point guard Brandon Knight (questionable), playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and recently fell at home to the Blazers 81-87 (3/27), but I think these factors have forced the books to overvalue Portland in this spot.
The Blazers have won 3 straight, but all 3 of those wins have come by 6-points or less. Prior to that they had dropped 5 straight and they too are playing on little rest. While Portland was off yesterday, they had just played 4 games in 5 days prior to their break. Another factor here is that the Blazers have a huge road game at the Clippers on deck Wednesday that will be televised nationally on NBATV.
Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (54-19) system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!
|03-30-15||Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors -2||96-99||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
4* Rockets/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing some tremendous value here as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Rockets. Toronto is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against Houston and are catching the Rockets in a great spot. Houston just played at Washington yesterday, making the trip to Toronto that much more difficult on no rest.
You also have to factor in that Houston is playing short-handed right now. While Howard has recently returned, he's going to get the night off. Beverley has been lost for the season and Motiejunas and Jones are both out with injuries. It's also worth noting that Rockets are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after 2 or more wins.
Adding to all of this is a big time system backing the Raptors. Favorites that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field on the season after holding their previous opponent to 35% or less are 25-3 ATS since 1996. That's a 89% system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|03-30-15||Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193||Top||113-111||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Total of the Month on 76ers/Lakers OVER
I'm not expecting a whole lot of defense to be played in tonight's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. These two teams did combine for just 188 points on 3/22, but that was with the 76ers shooting a mere 36.0% from the field.
It was the Lakers best defensive effort since December of 2013, which has me confident that it's not going to repeat itself, especially considering LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 5th straight on the road overall.
OVER is 6-1 in the Lakers last 7 games after their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 22-11 in their last 33 when they come in having lost 12 or more of their last 15. OVER is also 42-27 in the 76ers last 69 home games after going under the total in their last game and 7-3 in their last 10 against an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 65% (77-42) system. Take the OVER!
|03-29-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 207||Top||119-106||Loss||-110||8 h 19 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on Clippers/Celtics UNDER
The books have set the mark too high for Sunday's showdown between the Clippers and Celtics. Boston has held each of their last 3 opponents to 93 points or less, while LA has held each of their last 4 under the century mark. These two teams combined for just 195 points in their previous meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar combined score in the rematch.
Another big key here to this one going under the mark is that both of these teams are fighting for playoff spots. The Clippers are a 1/2 game back of the Blazers for the No.4 spot and home court in the first round, while Boston is just a 1/2 game ahead of Brooklyn and 1 in front of both Indiana and Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 55-23 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 where the home team is revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming in off a road win by 10+ points. That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!
|03-29-15||Michigan State -2.5 v. Louisville||76-70||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
4* Michigan St/Louisville Elite 8 No Brainer on Michigan State -
I've been much more impressed with the Spartans 3 wins over Georgia, Virginia and Oklahoma than that of Louisville, who has faced the likes of UC Irvine, UNI and NC State. Michigan State has been a completely different team down the stretch and it all started in the Big Ten Tournament, which saw them knock off Ohio State and Maryland before a crushing over-time loss to Wisconsin in the title game.
Neutral court favorites who have committed 11 or fewer turnovers in each of their last 2 games against an opponent that turned it over 8 or less times in their last game are 115-63 (65%) ATS since 1997. Adding to this is the fact that Michigan State is 9-2 ATS in their 11 road games this season against teams that average 12 or less turnovers. Spartans are also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after 15+ games versus teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse and 12-3 in their last 15 during this stretch against team that have won 60% to 80% of their games. These three trends combine to form a 75% (41-14) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!
|03-29-15||Houston Rockets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 205.5||99-91||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
3* NBA Early Bird Total Dominator on Rockets/Wizards UNDER
These early start times that come with the Sunday slate have a strong tendency to go under the total and I think we are getting plenty of value here. Both of these teams are fighting for home court in the playoffs, which is going to add to the defensive intensity. Washington is only allowing 96.5 ppg at home and are scoring just 94.4 ppg over their last 5.
These two teams combined for 207 points in the previous meeting this season and that was with both teams shooting over 46% from the field. I look for both teams to have a much harder time from the field in the rematch.
UNDER is 30-19 in the Rockets last 49 when the total is set at 200 or more points, 15-5 in the Wizards last 20 after a win by 3 points or less and 14-4 in Washington's last 18 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game. These trends combine to form a 68% (59-28) system. Take the UNDER!
|03-28-15||Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Utah Jazz||89-94||Loss||-110||21 h 7 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Thunder -
Oklahoma City will be all business when they take the floor against the Jazz on Saturday, as they were embarrassed last time out in a 39-point loss at San Antonio. Utah had been playing well, but have dropped 4-straight. The Jazz also just played last night in the thin air of Denver and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 overall. Thunder on the other hand come in off a full 2-days of rest, which is big part of why I'm taking OKC and laying the points on the road.
Thunder are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 110+ points in each of their last 2 games, while the Jazz are just 16-28 ATS in their last 44 home games against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots/game.
Adding to all this is a strong system backing a fade of Utah. Home teams that have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games combined are just 53-95 ATS in games played on Saturday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|03-28-15||Arizona -1.5 v. Wisconsin||78-85||Loss||-105||19 h 25 m||Show|
4* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 ATS Massacre on Arizona -
I just haven’t been impressed with how Wisconsin has been playing up to this point in the tournament and I think their run will come to an end Saturday against the Wildcats. I think Arizona expected to just show up and walk all over Xavier, while Wisconsin was simply outplayed for the majority of their contest against North Carolina.
The Wildcats haven’t forgot about last year’s heartbreaking 63-64 overtime loss to the Badgers in the Elite 8. I expect them to have a much better game plan for Karminsky, who shredded them for 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting. No other player for Wisconsin had more than 10 points.
Offensively, Arizona has struggled to get going in their last couple of games and you might think they are in trouble against a good Wisconsin defense, but the Badgers don't create a lot of turnovers, which is key. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers and have averaged 82.8 ppg in these matchups. Arizona is also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after 15+ games against teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game. These two systems combine to form a 79% (23-6) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Arizona!
|03-27-15||NC State v. Louisville -2.5||65-75||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
3* NC State/Lou East Region ATS Annihilator on Louisville -
The fact that NC State is an underdog in this game considering they just knocked off a No. 1 seed in their last game and won at Louisville in the only matchup during the regular season, is a clear as sign as you are going to get that the experts like the Cardinals to advance to the Elite 8.
I can't say that I was in love with this Louisville team coming into the tournament, as I just didn't think they had enough offense to go with their strong defense. That's not near as big of a concern with the way sophomore guard Terry Rozier has been shooting the ball. Rozier has scored 37 points on 13 of 23 (57%) shooting and is also doing a great job of getting the rest of his team in involved with 12 assists. Much like Wichita State coming off their big win over Kansas, I think it's going to be tough for NC State to bounce back with the same intensity they had in their game against Villanova.
Louisville is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after 15+ games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers and 13-4 ATS in this same stretch against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers. Cardinals are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games played in the month of March and 31-18 ATS in their last 49 road games off a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 69% (74-34) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!
|03-27-15||UCLA +9 v. Gonzaga||Top||62-74||Loss||-115||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* UCLA/Gonzaga Vegas Insider Top Play on UCLA +
While I'm not confident the Bruins will have enough to pull off the upset, it wouldn't come as a huge surprise. Either way we are getting some great value here with UCLA at this price. . I know Gonzaga went on the road and beat the Bruins by 13-points (87-74) earlier this season in non-conference play, but this is not the same UCLA team that struggled early in the year.
The Bruins only loss over their last 7 games is a 64-70 defeat to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament, which is one of only two losses for Arizona by single digits in their last 14 games.
Another big factor here that has me siding with UCLA, is I think this line has been inflated based on how well Gonzaga looked in their win over Iowa. Chances are the Bulldogs aren’t going to shoot 60% or better from the field and behind the 3-point line in back-to-back games and could actually come in a bit over-confident given they already beat the Bruins once this season.
UCLA is 13-3 ATS this season after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and have won these contests by nearly 5 ppg. Adding to this is that they are 7-0 ATS during this same stretch against teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and 7-1 ATS versus teams allowing 64 or less. Gonzaga is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 80+ in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (35-6) system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!
|03-27-15||Charlotte Hornets v. Washington Wizards -3.5||107-110||Loss||-108||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* Hornets/Wizards NBA Heavy Hitter on Wizards -
Washington failed to cover in their first game back home from a 4-game west coast road trip, falling 101-103 to the Pacers as a 3-point favorite. It was the Wizards 4th straight loss overall and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the struggling Hornets. Charlotte has dropped 2 straight and 7 of their last 9 overall, which started with an ugly 26-point loss to the Wizards.
Washington could be without Beal for this one, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Wizards are 25-11 at home and will certainly be motivated given their recent results. Charlotte on the other hand is in a tough spot. They returned home following a 5-game road trip and are now back on the road before returning home tomorrow to face Atlanta.
Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses are 96-65 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. We also see a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Hornets, as team revenging a home loss of 10 or more off a close home loss by 3 or less are just 43-86 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% long-term system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|03-26-15||North Carolina v. Wisconsin -6||Top||72-79||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
5* UNC/Wisconsin Sweet 16 No Limit Top Play on Wisconsin -
There’s no denying that the Badgers haven’t played up to their potential so far in the tournament, which I believe has them undervalued and primed for a big time performance against a North Carolina team that is fortunate that their season isn’t already over. Keep in mind that last year the Badgers came out in their Sweet 16 matchup and laid it on Baylor 69-52.
This comes down to the fact that the Badgers are the better team and 6-points is a favorable number to lay on the better team in this spot, especially when you factor in that the Badgers as a team shoot 76% from the foul line. Wisconsin is also the much better defensive team in this one. The Badgers are allowing 56.8 ppg against teams averaging 69.2, while the Tar Heels are giving up 68.6 ppg against teams averaging 69.7.
The Tar Heels will likely have an edge on the glass, but I don't think it will be as big as some are anticipating, especially with Kennedy Meeks (7.4 rpg) sidelined or not playing at 100%. Badgers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games against teams who average 40+ rebounds/game and we also see a strong system here going against North Carolina. Teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 6+ rebounds against an opponent that is outrebounding teams by 3-6 rebounds/game after 15+ games and on a neutral court are just 9-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!
|03-26-15||Wichita State v. Notre Dame +2||70-81||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
3* Wichita St/ND Sweet 16 ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame +
I think we are seeing an overreaction here with this line. Wichita State is coming off a big win over Kansas, while Notre Dame has advanced to the Sweet 16 on a couple of close calls. I like this shockers team, but it wasn't a big surprise to see them beat the Jayhawks. Let's not forget they struggled to get by Indiana in the first round, who went just 9-9 in the Big 10. Notre Dame has won 7 straight, which includes their run to the ACC Tournament title.
One of the hidden factors here that I don't think is getting overlooked is that the Irish have a huge motivational chip on their side, with head coach Mike Brey losing his mother. I look for this team to come out an do everything in their power to win this game for their coach. Not to mention the Irish can't be all that pleased about being listed as the underdog.
Irish are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning record, while Shockers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. These trends add up to form a strong 76% (22-7) system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!
|03-25-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194.5||111-89||Loss||-102||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Grizzlies UNDER
The books have set the mark too high in what I feel is going to be an offensive struggle for both teams. The Grizzlies are back to playing their brand of basketball and have been putting on a defensive clinic at home of late, allowing a mere 84.7 ppg over their last 10 home games.
Adding to that is the fact that not once during this stretch did Memphis eclipse the 100-point mark offensively. Cleveland held the Grizzlies to just 91 points in the previous meeting this season and are much better defensive team now than they were in December.
UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-0 in their last 8 after a cover as a double digit favorite in their last game. These trends combine to form a perfect 100% (17-0) system. Take the UNDER!
|03-25-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks +14.5||111-80||Loss||-110||9 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Knicks +
The public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Knicks and everything to do with going against them. That's especially going to be the case here with New York having lost 4 straight and fresh off a 21-point home loss to Memphis, while the Clippers enter having won 4 straight. Regardless of how big a disparity there is between these two teams, this is a lot of points for a road team to be laying, especially given the fact that this is LA's first game on 3-game east coast swing after having not left the state of California in nearly two weeks.
The Clippers are just 57-86 (40%) ATS in their last 143 road games when they come in having won 2 or more consecutive games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Eastern Conference and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10+ points who are revenging a loss where they scored 85 or fewer points against an opponent off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are 48-19 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!
|03-25-15||Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards -3.5||Top||103-101||Loss||-102||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Month on Wizards -
Both of these teams come into this game in the midst of a minor slump. The Pacers have dropped 6 straight, while the Wizards come in having lost 3 in a row. The key thing to note hear is that Washington's poor play came on west coast trip which included two games against two of the elite teams in the Clippers and Warriors sandwiched around a game against the Kings. Indiana's poor play has come with them playing 4 of their last 5 at home and they are just 12-22 on the road.
Washington is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Wizards are 25-10 SU at home, where they have won 5 straight, including recent wins over both the the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers. Offensively the Wizards shoot the ball at a much better clip at home and also get after it more defensively. Indiana is getting to much respect from their recent run and I feel like this is a great spot to take advantage of a short line with a better team at home.
Indiana is a mere 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games played in March, 16-28 ATS in their last 44 when playing 6 or more in a span of 10 days and 6-21 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Washington!
|03-24-15||Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 194||88-89||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Bucks UNDER
I'm expecting both of these teams to come out with a lot of energy here defensively. The Bucks are only giving up just 96.6 ppg at home and will be motivated here to snap a 6-game losing streak that has them 3.5-games ahead of 9th place Charlotte. Miami is only 2-games in front of the Hornets so they too will be motivated to get a win. The Heat will also be playing with triple-revenge, as they have lost all 3 previous meetings against Milwaukee this season.
One of the keys here is that the Heat are averaging just 92.6 ppg on the road and managed just 75 points in their last game at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has scored 90 or fewer in 3 of their last 5 overall and Miami is only giving up 96.6 ppg on the road.
UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 road games off a loss by 10+ points and 10-1 this season when playing against a marginal losing team that's won between 40% to 49% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Bucks last 9 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 straight games with 10 or more steals. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (41-9) system. Take the UNDER!
|03-23-15||Evansville v. Eastern Illinois +2||Top||83-68||Loss||-113||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* CIT Game of the Year on Eastern Illinois +
The Panthers should not be a home dog here against the Purple Aces. Eastern Illinois is happy to be playing in the CIT, as this is a team that hasn't enjoyed a whole lot of postseason success. This becomes that much more important to them playing at home.
Eastern Illinois showed how much they wanted to be a part of this tournament with a 97-91 win at Oakland in their CIT opener, while Evansville did just enough to get back IUPU-FW in their opener. One of the big keys here is that the Purple Aces rely a lot on getting to the foul line, where they are averaging 17 makes a game. The Panthers are only allowing 16 free throw attempts a game at home. They also have been a much stronger defensive team at home compared to on the road. Opponents shot just 36.5% from the field and 30.9% from long distance at Eastern Illinois this season.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs that are giving up 63-67 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 63-67 ppg, that have allowed 75+ in 2 straight games are 213-138 ATS since 1997. That's a massive 61% long-term system in favor of the Panthers. Take Eastern Illinois!
|03-23-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. New York Knicks +13||103-82||Loss||-105||9 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA Non-Conference Vegas Insider on Knicks +13
With the Grizzlies coming into this game off back-to-back double-digit wins over the Mavericks and Trail Blazers and the Knicks off a couple of ugly losses on the road to the 76ers (81-97) and Raptors (89-106), this may seem like a decent price to back Memphis against New York. I don't think that's the case at all.
The Grizzlies are 7.5-games out of 1st in the west and know that the top spot is out of question. They are also a comfortable 2.5-games ahead of 3rd seed Houston with just 12 games left to play. I believe the focus here for Memphis is to get a win and not use up to much energy before Wednesday's huge home game against the Cavaliers. Not to mention they host the Warriors on Friday and turnaround and travel to San Antonio on Sunday. This is the definition of a trap game.
Adding to this is the fact that Memphis is just 14-34 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as a favorite of 10 or more points and just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 with a total set at 180 to 189.5 points. On top of that the Knicks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 off back-to-back double-digit road defeats. Take New York +13!
|03-22-15||Northern Iowa -2.5 v. Louisville||53-66||Loss||-108||13 h 48 m||Show|
3* UNI/LOU Late Night ATS Bailout on UNI -
The Panthers might be the worse seed, but they are the better team and favored in this one for a reason. While both of these teams are strong defensively, UNI has a huge advantage here on the offensive end. The Panthers are shooting 48.3% from the field, which is the 16th best mark in the country, while Louisville ranks 211th in that same category at 42.9%. Not to mention the Cardinals have struggled even more on the offensive end since losing Chris Jones, who was averaging 13.7 ppg. It's also worth noting that UNI made easy work of a very good Wyoming defense in the opening round, while Louisville struggled to get by UC Irvine.
UNI is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Louisville on the other hand is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team that's won more than 60% and 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (61-19) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!
|03-22-15||West Virginia v. Maryland -1||Top||69-59||Loss||-105||12 h 5 m||Show|
5* WV/MD NCAAB Round of 32 Game of the Year on Maryland -
I think the books have made a huge mistake here listing the Terrapins as a mere 1-point favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia just isn't that strong a team on the road and I loo for them to really struggle to keep it competitive against Maryland. The Terrapins have a dynamic backcourt of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, who aren't going to be intimidated by West Virginia's pressure and that's really all the Mountaineers have going for them. You also can't overlook the fact that the Big 12 has been a huge disappointment in the tournament, as the conference clearly wasn't as strong as people thought.
West Virginia is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after 15+ games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Big Ten. Maryland is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (48-11) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!
|03-22-15||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 212.5||75-93||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Heat/Thunder UNDER
The books have set the bar too high for this one. The Thunder have scored 100+ points in 22-straight games, but will be going up against a tough Miami defense without several key pieces of their offense. Durant, Ibaka, Collison are all out with injuries and Kanter is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Miami on the other hand continues to play without Chris Bosh. Another big factor here is the early start time on Sunday, which has historically led to lower-scoring games. These two teams also combined for just 180 points in the first meeting back on Jan. 20.
UNDER is 11-3 in the Heat's last 14 non-conference road games and 10-2 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 19-10 in Thunder's last 29 when playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after finishing over the total in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a 76% (48-15) system. Take the UNDER!
|03-22-15||Michigan State v. Virginia -4.5||60-54||Loss||-105||3 h 18 m||Show|
4* Virginia/Michigan St NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Virginia -
Virginia isn't getting near enough respect here against the Spartans. I know Justin Anderson isn't at full strength and that Michigan State eliminated the Cavaliers in last year's tournament, but I think this is playing into the value here for Virginia.
The Spartans are playing as well as they have all season, but I just don't think this is a good matchup for them, especially with revenge playing a key role. This is no where near as good a Michigan State team that beat Virginia last year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cavaliers won this one going away.
While Virginia failed to cover their opening round game against Belmont, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a no cover in a win as a favorite. They are also 21-9-2 ATS in their last 32 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (35-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Virginia!
|03-21-15||Utah -4 v. Georgetown||75-64||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
4* Utah/Georgetown NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider on Utah -
It might come as a bit of a surprise to see Utah laying 4-points against the lower-seeded Hoyas, but I think the books are spot on with making the Utes the favorite. Chances are that Wright and Taylor will be a much bigger factor after their poor showing against the Lumberjacks, while it's unlikely the Hoyas will be able to replicate their 50% shooting from the field, especially their 48% shooting from long distance. Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the country. They held opposing teams to just 38% shooting on the season, including just 31.2% from behind the 3-point line.
With their win over Stephen F Austin, Utah improved to 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. It's also worth noting that the Utes are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games against a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games, while the Hoyas are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a cover. Take Utah!
|03-21-15||Ohio State +9.5 v. Arizona||58-73||Loss||-115||9 h 46 m||Show|
3* Ohio St/Arizona West Region Main Event on Ohio St -
I know the Wildcats are playing as well as any team in the country right now, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this matchup against Ohio State. I also think the fact that Ohio State is coming off an overtime game and their lackluster record away from home against elite teams is playing into this inflated line.
The thing you have to remember is that the Buckeyes are a much better team than No. 10 seed that they received and you can never count out a team that has a player as gifted as Russell, especially getting 9.5-points. As good as Arizona's defense has been, great offense will beat great defense and I believe Russell keeps the Buckeyes within striking distance throughout. An outright win isn't out of the question either. Arizona has been sent home from the NCAA Tournament by a Big Ten team each of the last two years.
Favorites that have covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, who have won 80% or more of their games are just 68-114 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus strong teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games. That's a 63% system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!
|03-21-15||UAB v. UCLA -6||Top||75-92||Win||100||4 h 41 m||Show|
5* UAB/UCLA NCAA Tournament No Limit Top Play on UCLA -
The perception here is that the Bruins got lucky in their win over SMU, while UAB outplayed a much better Iowa State team. The public is going to be to quick to jump on the points and take the Blazers, but I actually think the value here is with UCLA. Keep in mind we had a similar scenario last year, where No. 14 Mercer upset Duke in their first game, only to lose by 20-points to No. 11 seed Tennessee in their next game.
The fact that UCLA won convincingly over this team early in the year (88-76, led by 16 at half) is also a good sign, as that came back when the Bruins weren't playing well at all. This team might have had a questionable resume overall, but you can't discount how well they are playing right now. The Bruins have won 5 of 6 with their only loss being a 6-point defeat to Arizona. I'll take my chances on the Blazers not being able to live up to the hype created by their big win over the Cyclones.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive wins that are seeded 13 thru 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 18-46 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!
|03-20-15||Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||99-113||Loss||-109||13 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Wizards +
Washington has won 5 straight and are back to playing up to their potential. The Clippers have won two straight, but I haven't really been impressed with of late. They are just 4-4 over their last 8 games with the 4 wins coming against the Timberwolves, Thunder, Hornets and Kings. I don't know that the Wizards will have enough here to win this game outright, but I look for them to have no problem keeping this withing 7-points for the cover.
The Clippers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Friday and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade Los Angeles, as home favorites off a win by 10+ points over a division rival are just 14-35 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|03-20-15||Davidson v. Iowa -2||52-83||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* Davidson/Iowa South Region Vegas Insider on Iowa -
Unlike last year when the Hawkeyes stumbled down the stretch and ended up losing to Tennessee in the play-in game, Iowa enters the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. I know they lost at Penn State, but for whatever reason that’s a team they struggled with even during the regular season. Iowa certainly won’t be looking past Davidson after that loss and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes won here in a blowout.
While the Wildcats feature an explosive offense that comes in averaging 79.9 ppg, they are not a strong defensive team and don’t shoot the ball nearly as well on the road as they do at home. Iowa has a ton of length that is going to give Davidson fits on both sides of the ball.
The Hawkeyes are 21-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 15+ games against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts/game and have won these contests by an average of 10.4 ppg. We also find a strong system in play here, as teams from a major conference against a team from a second tier conference that are off an upset conference loss as a favorite are 61-27 ATS since 1997. That's a 69% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!
|03-20-15||Oklahoma State v. Oregon -1.5||Top||73-79||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tourn 2nd Round Game of the Year on Oregon -
I didn't think Oklahoma State deserved to be in the field and I certainly haven't changed my opinion after watching the Big 12 fail to show up in Thursday's game. The Cowboys went just 8-10 inside conference play, closed out the season 1-6 over their final 7 games and played a cupcake non-conference schedule.
On the flip side of this, the Pac-12 came to play with Arizona, UCLA and Utah all cashing in a victory on Thursday. Outside of Arizona, who is one of the elite teams in the country, Oregon closed out the season playing the best basketball of any other team in the Big 12. The Ducks won 11 of their last 13 to quietly finish 2nd in the conference standings with Utah, who they beat twice during their stretch run.
Oklahoma State is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games away from home against a strong team that has won 60% to 80% of their games and just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games away from home in the month of March. Oregon on the other hand is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a favorite on a neutral court. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (39-8) system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon!
|03-20-15||Wyoming v. Northern Iowa -6||54-71||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
4* Wyoming/UNI NCAA Tournament Heavy Hitter on UNI -
Northern Iowa is a lot better than the No. 5 seed that the received and I look for the Panthers to come out and make a statement here against Wyoming. UNI is talented enough to win the East Region, yet no one is really talking about them as a threat. Wyoming has a big time playmaker in Larry Nance Jr, but UNI has one of the top defenses in the country, giving up the 4th fewest points in the country at 54.3 ppg.
I look for the Panthers to come in with a gameplan to stop Nance and without him scoring close to 20, I just don't see Wyoming being able to keep this respectable. Keep in mind that the Cowboys managed just 42 points in a non-conference loss to Cal, who isn't exactly known for their defense (ranked 193rd).
UNI is 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 against a team with a winning record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played on a neutral site. These three trends combine to form a strong 75% (48-16) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!
|03-19-15||LSU v. NC State -2||65-66||Loss||-106||23 h 6 m||Show|
4* LSU/NC State NCAA Tournament Heavy Hitter on NC State -
Sure the SEC was improved this year compared to previous seasons, but it wasn't anywhere close to that of overall strength of the ACC. Going 10-8 in the ACC is a lot better than finishing 11-7 in the SEC. I know LSU lost by just 2-points at home to Kentucky, but the also lost at home by 15 to Tennessee and got ousted in their first SEC Tournament game by Auburn.
I also think NC State is a better team than their 10-8 record would indicate. They had some hiccups against bad teams where they didn't show up to play, but this a team that beat Duke by 12-points, won at Louisville by 11, and won at UNC by 12. They also had several close calls, losing at Virginia by 10, at home to Notre Dame by 3 (OT), at home to Virginia by 4 and at home to North Carolina by 2.
I know the Wolfpack lost by 24 to Duke in the ACC Tournament, but that's a good thing for backing them in this game, as they are a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a loss by 10 or more points. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games played on a neutral site and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. LSU on the other hand is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on a neutral site and 1-4 ATS in their last 6 vs the ACC. These trends combine to form a 79% (52-14) system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State!
|03-19-15||Ohio State -4 v. VCU||Top||75-72||Loss||-105||19 h 42 m||Show|
5* Ohio State/VCU No Limit Top Play on Ohio State -
The Buckeyes are a much better team than the No. 10 seed that they received and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement against VCU. The Rams are a quality team that got hot on their way to winning the A-10 Tournament, but they have not been the same team since losing Briante Weber to a season-ending injury.
Even with Weber the Rams didn't stack up against elite competition from the other power conferences, as they go rolled on a neutral court by Villanova 53-77 and at home by Virginia (57-74). Senior Shannon Scott and freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell are going to have no problem picking apart VCU's press and that's really all the Rams have going for them.
It's going to allow a Buckeyes team that isn't great in the halfcourt to get a lot of easy baskets in transition and I look for them to runaway with this game and win here by double-digits. Take Ohio State!
|03-19-15||Northeastern v. Notre Dame -11.5||65-69||Loss||-110||14 h 3 m||Show|
3* Northeastern/Notre Dame Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame -
This Notre Dame team for whatever reason is flying under the radar and I look for them to come out and lay a beating on Northeastern. The Fighting Irish closed out the year playing their best basketball. They won 8 of their last 9, including 5 straight, which included an impressive run to the ACC Tournament title. This is a team that beat Duke and North Carolina twice to go along with impressive non-conference wins over Michigan State and Purdue.
All 5 of their wins during their current 5-game winning streak came by at least 7 points, including a 10-point win over the Blue Devils. I look for them to have no problem winning here by 12+ against a Northeastern team that lost by 14 points to Harvard. Not to mention the Huskies only went 12-6 in weak Colonial Conference, so this isn't your typical small-school powerhouse.
Notre Dame is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games off 2 or more consecutive wins and have won these contests by an average of 10.0 ppg. The Irish are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after leading in their previous 3 games by 5+ points at the half and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last last 4 neutral site games. These trends add up to form a dynamite 86% (25-4) system in favor of the Irish. Take Notre Dame!
|03-18-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208.5||95-114||Loss||-105||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* Hawks/Warriors Late Night Total Annihilator on UNDER
These two teams combined for 240 points in Atlanta in their previous meeting this season, but there's not near the hype the second time around and both teams will be playing without two of their most important plays.
Golden State won't have Klay Thompson and the Hawks will be without Kyle Korver. These are two of the best shooters in the game, that really make it difficult on opposing defenses with how much attention they have to pay to them. Not having them on the floor is going to make life much easier for both defenses, which I believe will have this one finishing well below the mark. You also have to factor in that both teams have a better understanding of what the other likes to do offensively after already facing each other.
UNDER is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Warriors last 7 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!
|03-18-15||Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||86-103||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Pacers NBA Heavy Hitter on Bulls -
The Bulls have been treading water without Rose, Butler and Gibson, as they have lost 5 of their last 6. I believe it has Chicago showing some big time value here as a small home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana isn't exactly playing their best basketball. In their last two games they have lost 89-93 at home to the Celtics and 98-117 at home to the Raptors.
The Bulls are clearly playing short-handed right now, which is why I think this is a good spot to back them coming off a full 2 days of rest. You also have to keep in mind that the Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 on the road during their 1-5 stretch and the Pacers are just 12-20 on the road.
Indiana is 4-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 6-20 ATS in the month of March over the last two seasons. Chicago lost 84-98 at Indiana back on 3/6, which is important to note as the Bulls are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 75% (58-19) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|03-18-15||Brooklyn Nets v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11||Top||92-117||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs -
This may seem like a big number to back the Cavs at home against the Nets off back-to-back wins, but Cleveland is on a mission to secure that No. 2 seed and will be extra motivated after getting embarrassed at Miami 92-106 in their last game. Brooklyn's two game winning streak is far from impressive, as they knocked off the 76ers and Timberwolves. Prior to that the Nets had dropped 5 straight and 10 of their last 14 overall.
Cleveland has won 13 straight at home and during this stretch are outscoring opponents by 15.7 ppg, which is why I'm not to concerned laying the big number here. It's also worth noting that the Cavaliers will be at full strength, as Kevin Love is expected to return after sitting out the last two.
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 10 or more points, while Cleveland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites of 10+ points who have went over the total by 30+ points in their last 5 games, who have won 60% to 75% of their games and are playing a team with a losing record are 41-16 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a strong 72% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|03-17-15||Ole Miss v. BYU -4||Top||94-90||Loss||-104||12 h 6 m||Show|
5* Ole Miss/BYU Vegas Insider Top Play on BYU -
While BYU has a history of not playing up to their potential away from home, that hasn't been the case for the 2014-15 season. The Cougars pulled off a huge upset on the road against Gonzaga recently on Feb. 28. They also had painfully close losses on a neutral setting against San Diego St (87-92 OT) and Purdue (85-87 OT).
It's also important to note that BYU closed out the season playing some of their best basketball, winning 8 of their last 9 games, with the only loss coming against Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament. Ole Miss gets a lot of respect for their near upset win at Kentucky, but in reality this team wasn't all that impressive in SEC play. They finished 11-7, but were just 1-6 against conference opponents who made the NCAA Tournament. They also come in having lost 4 of their last 5.
The Rebels are just 3-11 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games against strong teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games and a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after 4 straight games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers. BYU has covered the spread 57% of the time since 1997 when listed as a favorite and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after failing to cover the spread in their most recent game. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Cougars. Take BYU!
|03-17-15||Orlando Magic +11.5 v. Houston Rockets||94-107||Loss||-110||11 h 33 m||Show|
4* Magic/Rockets NBA Heavy Hitter on Magic +
This is a great spot to back Orlando as a double-digit road dog against the Rockets. The Magic will be motivated to snap a 4-game losing streak and are showing some solid value here due to their lopsided 15-point loss at home to the Cavaliers.
The big key here is Houston is in a prime letdown spot, as they pulled out a big 100-98 win on the road over the Clippers, which concluded a difficult 4-game stretch on the road. I just don't see the Rockets coming out highly motivated here, which will make it hard for them to cover a massive spread like this.
Orlando has thrived on the road this season. The Magic are an impressive 14-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!
|03-16-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Sacramento Kings +5||110-103||Loss||-105||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Kings +
The Kings are showing some great value here as a 5-point home underdog against the Hawks. Atlanta comes in off a 91-86 road win over the Lakers yesterday and are expected to rest Horford, while Korver and Scott both sit with injuries. We have seen the Hawks lose recently at Philadelphia 84-92 and at Denver 102-115. With a 10-game lead over the Cavs, Atlanta can afford to not put their best foot forward in these tough scheduling spots.
Another key here is that Sacramento will be returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip, which saw them go just 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS. The important thing here to note is that the Kings are an impressive 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Atlanta on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games overall. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (23-5) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!
|03-16-15||Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards -2||Top||97-105||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards -
After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers.
Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home.
Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|03-16-15||Toronto Raptors v. Indiana Pacers -5||117-98||Loss||-104||8 h 6 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Pacers -
These two teams are headed in completely different directions down the stretch run and I think we are seeing some solid value here due to the difference in records. Toronto is 39-27, while Indiana is 30-35. However, the Raptors are a mere 2-10 over their last 12, while the Pacers 10-2 over their last 12.
Not only is Indiana playing the better basketball of the two, they have a big advantage here in terms of scheduling. The Pacers come in off a days rest, while the Raptors will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in their last 4 days overall.
Another big key here is that Indiana won't be overlooking Toronto, as they have lost each of the previous two meetings this season. Home teams playing with double revenge against an opponent that's off a upset home loss by 15+ points as a favorite are 61-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!
|03-15-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5||Top||123-108||Loss||-110||8 h 59 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5
The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points.
UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday. These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!
|03-14-15||Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194||Top||94-87||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER
I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout.
OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!