|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-28-14||Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5||107-97||Loss||-109||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Pacers -
|04-28-14||Miami Heat -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||109-98||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Heat -
|04-27-14||HOUSTON GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 -2||120-123||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers -
The Rockets were fortunate to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series, as Troy Daniels saved their season. Portland has looked like the better team so far, yet we find them laying just 2.5-points at home. The Trail Blazers lost just 10 games at home during the entire regular season. You have to think there's a better chance they win Game 4 than drop two straight at home.
Portland is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, while Houston is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. We also see that home teams who have won 60% to 75% of their games, with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite are 79-39 ATS since 1996 when playing a team with a winning record. That's a 67% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!
|04-26-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202||108-109||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER
The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1.
The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out.
The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER!
|04-25-14||Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -5||98-102||Loss||-101||21 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Nets -
The Nets could have easily won both games in Toronto. They had a 8-point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2, before completely falling apart defensively. Brooklyn allowed Toronto to put up 36-points in the final 12 minutes. While it was a disappointing loss, I look that poor finish to light a fire under the Nets at home.
Brooklyn finished the regular season a solid 28-13 at home, but were even stronger than that down the stretch. The Nets went 15-2 over their final 17 games at the Barclays Center. Not only have they been winning, but most importantly they have been covering the spread. Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. The Raptors don't exactly have a history of playing well on the road in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 12 straight away from home in the postseason.
The Nets have also responded well from a loss on the road against the same opponent. Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a road loss. Toronto on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their games at home. If you add up all the trends mentioned, it combines to form a rock solid 81% (39-9-1) system in favor of the Nets!
|04-24-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5||98-96||Loss||-102||11 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Warriors +
|04-24-14||Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5||85-98||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Hawks +
|04-23-14||Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -6||112-105||Loss||-107||12 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Rockets -
There's a solid system in play favoring Houston. Teams who have scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games (Rockets) in a contest involving two horrible defense teams (102+ ppg) are 83-54 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of Houston!
|04-22-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5||Top||101-99||Loss||-115||10 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one.
I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting.
Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest!
|04-22-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -4.5||95-100||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Raptors -
Toronto found themselves down 8-points after the 1st quarter and while they were able to fight back that early hole proved to be too much in the end. Keep in mind that the Raptors were making their first playoff appearance in six years. It's not a huge surprise to see them come out sluggish in Game 1. With a better understanding of what to expect, I look for a completely different Toronto team to take the floor in Game 2.
Toronto is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss, while the Nets are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Raptors are also a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game. Combined that's a 82.5% (32-7-1) system in favor of the Raptors!
|04-22-14||Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5||85-101||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers -
Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest and will find it difficult to not relax in Game 2. They came into Indiana hoping for a split and with that already in the bag, I see a huge letdown coming tonight. You also have to keep in mind that the Pacers are the better team and if they respond like they should, there's no reason they won't win this game by double-digits. Indiana is 23-11 ATS over the last two seasons at home off a loss in their last game and have won these contests by an average of 10.2 ppg!
|04-21-14||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5||Top||98-138||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2.
Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
|04-20-14||PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214||122-120||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER -
I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg.
The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line.
The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER!
|04-20-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5||102-93||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Bulls -
The Bulls are a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs and I like how they matchup with the Wizards. Keep in mind that the only reason Washington is the No. 5 seed, is because the Nets purposely fell back to No. 6. Chicago lost the first two games of the season series, but in the most recent matchup they embarrassed the Wizards 96-78 on their home floor. Washington shot just 39.5% from the field and were sitting on just 26-points at the half. That's what Chicago's defense can do to teams and I look for the Bulls' defense to really make life miserable for the Wizards in this series.
Energy is everything for the Bulls and they will have plenty of at home in the first game of the series. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. Joakim Noah, who has carried this team down the stretch with his play, will be playing even harder than normal after the recent death of his mentor Tyrone Green. Not only do I expect a big effort out of Noah, but I look for the rest of the Bulls players to rally around the potential Defensive Player of the Year.
|04-19-14||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 210.5||109-105||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER
I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point.
That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home.
The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER!
|04-19-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3||Top||94-87||Loss||-109||2 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road.
Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss.
The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0).
One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.
|04-16-14||Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Miami Heat||100-87||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on 76ers +
This game means absolutely nothing to the Heat and they are expected to rest both LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I would also expect Miami to limit the rest of the starters' minutes. The only reason Miami is favored in this game is because they are playing the 76ers, who are one of the most difficult teams in the league to back no matter what the spread. I believe this has created exceptional value on Philadelphia, who have a more than legit shot at winning this game outright. Keep in mind the 76ers beat Miami earlier this season with both Bosh and James playing 30+ minutes a piece.
Philadelphia is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Miami is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their road games!
|04-14-14||Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5||97-91||Loss||-108||11 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Suns -
The Suns need to win this game to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive. Phoenix can pull even with the Grizzlies in the standings with a win. While Memphis would secure the 8th and final spot with a victory, they still have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs even with a loss. Due to the fact that the Grizzlies have won each of the previous three meetings against Phoenix this season, Memphis holds the tiebreaker and would simply need to beat the Mavericks at home on Wednesday.
I'm not saying the Grizzlies won't take this game seriously, but they aren't in the best of scheduling spots. Memphis had to play last night in Los Angeles and both Marc Gasol (36) and Mike Conley (34) played big minutes. With the tempo that Phoenix likes to play at, I could see the Grizzlies coming out flat and lacking some intensity on the defensive end. Keep in mind that Memphis is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Phoenix hasn't played since Saturday and are a dominant 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Suns are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following a SU loss and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in two of their last 3. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game as a road favorite, while the Suns are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after playing their last game as a road underdog.
|04-14-14||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -5.5||119-104||Loss||-105||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Jazz -
It's been a difficult season for the Jazz, but I look for them to come out and play extremely hard in their home finale tonight against the Lakers. With a win Utah can also pull even with Los Angeles for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Jazz are a respectable 16-24 at home for a team that has won just 24 games all season.
The Lakers are equally as bad as Utah, but the big key here is that Los Angeles will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set in the thin air of Salt Lake City. I just don't see the Lakers coming out with any energy or interest in this game, as they put a lot of effort into last night's game against the Grizzlies.
Utah has taken 2 of 3 against the Lakers this season, including a 96-79 blowout win in Los Angeles in the most recent meeting. That combined with the Lakers 12-point loss to Memphis last night set up a favorable system to fade Los Angeles. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss of 10+ points and off a home loss by 10+ in their last game are just 31-61 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Jazz!
|04-13-14||Toronto Raptors -6.5 v. Detroit Pistons||116-107||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Raptors -
While the Raptors recently clinched the Atlantic Division title, I look for them to come out strong against the Pistons. Toronto is a game back of Chicago for 3rd place and there's a big difference between finishing 3rd and 4th. Right now the Raptors would have to open up against the surging Nets and then face off against the Heat if they were able to advance to the 2nd round. Regardless if they catch the Bulls or not, the key here is that Toronto should show up.
Detroit on the other hand has absolutely nothing to play for and with the Raptors only playing for seeding, there's not a lot of reason for the Pistons to get excited about this game. Hard for me to believe a team that is completely out of it would be interested in an early afternoon game on a Sunday. Keep in mind that Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday.
One of the big keys here is that the Pistons don't play a whole lot of defense. Detroit is allowing 110.0 ppg over their last 5. Bad defensive teams tend to struggle down the stretch. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 99+ ppg on the season are just 37-72 ATS in the month of April over the last 5 years. That's a 66% system in favor of the Raptors!
|04-12-14||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -9.5||94-101||Loss||-110||12 h 43 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Nuggets -
The Nuggets may be out of the playoff race, but they have continued to play hard down the stretch and as a result are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. While Denver is just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games, it's worth noting that all six of those defeats came against teams who are currently in the playoff race. In fact their only game against a non-playoff contender during that stretch was versus the Pelicans at home. The Nuggets won that contest 137-107.
I don't see Denver having any problem beating the Jazz by double-digits. Utah is just 2-14 over their last 16 games and for the most part have not been competitive. The Jazz find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back set and this can be a very difficult spot for a bad team at this point in the season. Utah has no reason to get motivated for this game, as they have won each of the previous two matchups against the Nuggets. The Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest.
There's also a strong system favoring the Nuggets. A marginal losing team (40%-49%) who has gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 seven games are 53-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus a bad team (25%-40%). That's a 69% system in favor of Denver!
|04-11-14||Charlotte Bobcats -5 v. Boston Celtics||103-106||Loss||-110||10 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA No Brainer on Bobcats -
This is a great price to get the surging Bobcats against the free falling Celtics. Charlotte has won five straight and are now 6th in the Eastern Conference standings. A spot they would like to keep, as they would avoid a first round matchup against either Miami or Indiana. Boston on the other hand has lost 9 straight and 14 of their last 15 overall.
Because the Bobcats were so bad a year ago, the public still has a difficult time getting behind this team. They have been showing great value just about every time they take the floor, which is why they are an impressive 46-29 ATS on the season. Charlotte has really added to this of late, going 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games. While they did lose 86-96 at home to the Celtics in the most recent meeting, they were able to come away with a 89-83 victory in their only trip to Boston this season. It's also worth mentioning that the loss to the Celtics was way back on Nov. 25 when they weren't playing very well.
Charlotte is 17-8 ATS revenging a loss of 10 or more points this season. The Bobcats also come in off a full two days rest and will be playing just their third game in the last seven days. Charlotte is 14-6 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bobcats are 16-2 ATS in the second half of the season versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots /game.
Key system telling us to fade Boston. Home teams off 6 or more consecutive losses in the month of April are just 8-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Bobcats!
|04-09-14||Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -13||99-100||Loss||-105||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers -
I'm not worried about the massive line in this one. This is a perfect spot to fade the Kings, who just played a huge game last night at home against Oklahoma City. I just don't see a horrible team like Sacramento coming out strong on the road with no rest at this point in the season. Making matters even worse is the Kings are expected to once again be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas and could also be missing Rudy Gay (questionable).
It's no secret that the Trail Blazers are at their best at home. Portland is 28-10 at home, compared to just 22-18 on the road. There's still an outside chance that the Blazers could catch 4th place Houston, which would give them the home court edge in the first round of the playoffs. That should be more than enough motivation for Portland to make easy work of the Kings. Keep in mind the last time Sacramento went on the road, they were annihilated by 33-points at Golden State.
Portland is 19-9 ATS when playing just their 4th game in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Trail Blazers will also be out for revenge as they fell 119-123 in Sacramento in the most recent matchup. Portland is 19-7 ATS this season when revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Combined that's a 70% (38-16) system favoring a Trail Blazers cover!
|04-09-14||Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies -4||102-107||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA No Limit ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -
I think this is a great spot to fade the Heat. Miami has lost two of their last overall, including an upset loss at home to the Nets last night. While most would expect the Heat to rebound, you have to keep in mind that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. That's becomes even more of a problem for Miami when you factor in that Memphis is playing on a full 2 days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 5 days overall.
While Miami is playing for home-court in the East, they have a .5-game lead over the Pacers and Indiana is starting to rest some of their key players. I don't believe this game is as important to the Heat as most think. As for the Grizzlies, their season is pretty much on the line. Memphis is 1-game back of 8th place Phoenix for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs and have just 5 games left to make up the ground.
Even if Miami does show up, I still like the Grizzlies to win and cover. Memphis has won 11 straight at home. Last time the Heat visited FedEx Forum the Grizzlies won convincingly 104-86.
Miami just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference, while the Grizzlies are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days of rest. Combined that's a 73% (47-17) system favoring a Memphis cover!
|04-09-14||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||102-87||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -
|04-08-14||Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 v. Sacramento Kings||107-92||Loss||-105||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
I look for the Thunder to be all business when they take the floor against the Kings tonight. Oklahoma City comes into this game having lost 2 straight and are in danger of falling out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder are just one game ahead of the Clippers with six games to play.
The good news is that Oklahoma City should have no trouble turning tonight's matchup against Sacramento into a blowout. The Kings have absolutely nothing to play for and to make matters worse they will be without point guard Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 20.7 points and 6.4 assists on the year. In the two most recent meetings against the Kings, the Thunder have won by 13 and 15 points.
Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games when they come in having failed to cover the number in 2 out of their last 3 games, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games when playing on a full days rest and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Add it up and that's a 53-21-1 (72%) system in favor of the Thunder! We also see that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss to an opponent, after covering the spread but losing their last game outright as an underdog are just 41-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's another 67% system in favor of Oklahoma City!
|04-07-14||Kentucky -2.5 v. Connecticut||54-60||Loss||-105||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAA Championship Game No Brainer on Kentucky -
You could argue that the Wildcats are lucky to be in the championship game, but the simple fact is this team just keeps on finding ways to win games. Kentucky has now knocked off the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin in their last four games.
Not to take anything away from what Connecticut has done, but this is by far the most talented team they have faced in the tournament. They are just as talented and as strong defensively as Florida, but with far more offensive weapons. I look for the Wildcats to really pick apart the Huskies inside. On the other side of the ball, I look for Kentucky's athleticism to really make life difficult for Shabazz Napier and the rest of UConn's players.
Connecticut does a solid job of taking care of the basketball, but Kentucky is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Wildcats are excellent at drawing fouls, which not only gets them to the line, but can cause problems for the opposition with foul trouble. The Huskies have not fared well against similar teams, as they are just 3-12 in their last 15 versus teams who average 28 or more free throw attempts per game.
Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 following 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, while Connecticut is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 60 points or less in two consecutive games and 1-12 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. Combined that's a 34-4 (89%) system in favor of the Wildcats!
|04-06-14||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 188.5||91-102||Loss||-110||4 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA Total No Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER
I look for Sunday's showdown between the Knicks and Heat to finish well below the posted total. I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity. New York desperately needs this game, as they are one game back of Atlanta for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just 5 games left on the schedule. Miami on the other hand is tied with the Pacers for the top spot. Adding some value to the UNDER is the fact that this game will tip off at 1:00 EST, which could have the offenses coming out flat with the early start time.
Both of these teams come in playing extremely well defensively. The Knicks are allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Heat are only giving up 85.4 over their last 5. Oddsmakers have pretty much informed us that the game will be a defensive battle. Despite the fact that these two teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of three previous meetings (no total was lower than 197.5 for the game), we have a total for this one set below 190. They are clearly trying to get money on the over and I'm showing just over 60% of the bets right now being placed on the over.
The UNDER is 15-5 in the Knicks last 20 games versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 overall. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU loss. Combined that's a 36-7 (84%) angle favoring this game to finish below the mark.
|04-05-14||Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2||74-73||Win||100||36 h 35 m||Show|
4* Final Four Vegas Insider on Wisconsin +2
Not to take anything away from what Kentucky has done to this point, but the Badgers should not be an underdog in this matchup. Wisconsin is a perfect 17-0 in non-conference games this season. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 outside the Big 10 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral setting.
There's a lot of talk about Kentucky and their talented freshman, but I feel that youth is going to haunt them against a well-coached Wisconsin team that is adapt to playing against all different styles. The fact that Bo Ryan gets extra time to prepare for the Wildcats, is a huge advantage for the Badgers. At the same time I think the time off could hurt Kentucky, who are just 13-25 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.
Two things that Kentucky has done extremely well is get to the foul line and create second chance opportunities with offensive rebounds. While I could see the Badgers having some trouble keeping the Wildcats off the glass, they aren't going to allow Kentucky easy points at the free throw line. Wisconsin is only giving up 15 free throw attempts per game on the season and are 24-7 ATS at least 15 games into the season against teams who average 25 or more free throw attempts since 1997! That's a 77% long-term system in our pocket. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are a solid 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games versus teams averaging 40 or more rebounds/game.
One final trend that supports the Badgers. Wisconsin is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament when they are a No. 4 seed or better and have won these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 56.7!
|04-05-14||Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183||96-78||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Wizards UNDER
I expect a defensive battle tonight in Washington. Both these teams are fighting for playoff position. The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for 3rd in the East, while the Wizards are just 1.5-games back of 5th place Brooklyn and 2 games in front of 7th place Charlotte. Washington isn't as worried about catching the Nets as they are avoiding 7th and 8th, where they would have to face off against either Miami or Indiana in the first round.
Not only are these two of the better teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but the big key is that neither look to push to the pace. Washington ranks 18th with an average of 95.6 possessions and the Bulls are way down there at 28th with just 92.8. I expect an even slower pace than what we normally see from these two, as both are in the second game of a back-to-back. On top of that, this will be Chicago's 5th game in the last 7 days and the Wizards 6th in the last 9 days.
The UNDER is 23-10 in the Bulls last 33 when playing on no rest, 16-6 in Chicago's last 22 with a line of +3 to -3, 17-7 in the Wizards last 24 when listed as a home favorite of 6 or less and 20-7 in Washington's last 27 in the second half of the season versus teams who have won between 51% to 60% of their games. Combined that's a 76-30 (72%) system!
|04-04-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5||107-111||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conference No Brainer on Rockets -
This is the perfect spot to fade the Thunder and take advantage of the Rockets laying just 2.5-points at home. Oklahoma City comes in off an impressive 106-94 win over the Spurs last night, snapping San Antonio's 19-game winning streak.
The key here is that I just don't see the Thunder coming out strong in the second game of a back-to-back set. They don't have a ton to play for in the standings, as they are 3-games back of the Spurs and 2.5 ahead of the Clippers. Oklahoma City will also be without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, who is not playing in the second game of back-to-backs.
Houston on the other hand has a lot at stake in this one. The Rockets desperately need to get things headed in the right direction after dropping three straight. Houston currently has homecourt in the first round of the playoffs, but are just 1-game ahead of 5th place Portland.
You also have to take into consideration how well the Rockets have been playing at home, where they are 29-8 on the season. Houston's 11-1 over their last 12 games at the Toyota Center. While the Rockets have lost all three matchups against the Thunder this season, home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing with triple revenge versus an opponent who has covered the spread in each of their last two games are 68-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 66% long-term system favoring Houston to cover!
|04-04-14||Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks UNDER 196.5||90-89||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks UNDER
Due to recent performances, I believe the bar has been set too high in this one. The Wizards put up 118 against the Celtics last time out, while the Knicks scored 110 against the Nets. Even with those offensive outburts, we see that Washington is only averaging 99.4 ppg over the their last 5 and New York putting up just 97.2 ppg over their last 5.
This is an important game for both teams. While the Wizards have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently sitting in 6th place, just 2 games ahead of Charlotte. The last thing they want to do is to fall back to 7th and have to play either Miami or Indiana in the first round. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. While they are technically ahead of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot, Atlanta has one fewer losses. With so much at stake, I expect both teams to bring it on the defensive end tonight.
There's also a strong system that supports a play on the UNDER. Since 1996 the UNDER has gone 23-4 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the road team enters having scored 55 or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent who scored 60 or more in the first half of their last contest. That's a 85% system in favor of the UNDER!
|04-03-14||Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||113-107||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA No Brainer on Mavericks +
The Mavericks will be treating every game down the stretch like it's a playoff game and I believe it has Dallas showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point dog against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot and are more focused on getting healthy than winning games right now.
This is also a big revenge spot for the Mavericks, who just recently lost at home to Los Angeles last Thursday. The fact that the Clippers just beat Dallas will make it that much harder to get excited about tonight's matchup.
The Clippers are expected to have Blake Griffin back tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took it easy on their All-Star to make sure he's 100% come playoff time. They are still without one of their top scores and key reserve in Jamal Crawford, who means more to this team than a lot of people realize.
This is also a difficult scheduling spot for Los Angeles. They just played a up-tempo game last night at Phoenix and are returning home from a lengthy 5-game road trip. Overall this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days.
We find a solid system telling us to fade the Clippers. Home favorites who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game after allowing 110 or more in their last contest are just 50-89 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of a Mavericks cover. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is 23-13 ATS in their last 36 road games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games when listed as an underdog.
|04-03-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5||94-106||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
With the Spurs playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and potentially resting some of their key players tonight, I look for Oklahoma City to put an end to San Antonio's 20-game winning streak.
Oklahoma City has been playing pretty well themselves, as they enter having won 6 of their last 7. Not only are the Spurs playing on consecutive nights, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder on the other hand are playing on a full 3-days rest.
It's not just scheduling that makes Oklahoma City a play tonight. The Thunder have dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 8, including a 111-105 road win over the Spurs in the most recent meeting on Jan. 22.
Those worried about the Spurs being out for revenge, will be happy to see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss and fresh off a cover as a double-digit favorite are just 13-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Thunder!
|04-03-14||Yale v. Murray State -7.5||57-65||Win||101||10 h 49 m||Show|
3* CIT Championship Main Event on Murray State -
I got Murray State cruising to an easy win at home in the CIT Championship Game. The Racers have had the luxury of hosting each of their last three opponents in the CIT and have won all three by at last 12-points, including a 23-point blowout win over Pacific in Tuesday's semifinal matchup.
Murray State is now 16-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring the opposition by just under 14 ppg. Yale has had an impressive run to the title game, winning each of their last three one the road. I just don't see the Bulldogs run continuing against a much stronger Murray State squad.
Not only is Yale in a tough spot, but they are expected to be without their best player in Justin Sears, who suffered a hand injury in the Bulldogs win over VMI on Tuesday. Sears leads the team in both scoring (16.9 ppg)and rebounding (6.9 rpg), plus he averages 1.2 steals and nearly 2 blocks a game. Without Sears leading the way, this one could get ugly quick for Yale against the Racers.
|04-02-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5||112-108||Loss||-110||12 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Suns -
I'll gladly back the Suns at home as small favorite against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles will be without two of their top scorers in All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg) and key reserve Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). You also have to keep in mind that the Clippers are also playing without both Danny Granger and J.J. Redick.
Without two of their top players and having already secured a winning record on their current 5-game road trip, I look for the Clippers to come out flat and uninterested. The Suns on the other hand will be all business, as Phoenix is in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The Suns are currently tied for 7th in the standings, but are just 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Dallas.
We also find the Suns in a huge motivational spot from their ugly 99-115 road loss to the Lakers last time out, which snapped a 6-game winning streak. Phoenix should also benefit from a full 2 days rest against the depleted Clippers, who are playing their 5th road game in 8 days.
Explosive offensive teams who are averaging 103+ ppg (Suns) that trailed in their previous game by 15+ points are 147-79 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of Phoenix. We also see that the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
|04-02-14||Fresno State +1 v. Siena||89-75||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* CBI Tournament Vegas Insider on Fresno State +
Fresno State was upset at home 57-61 in Game 1 of their best of 3 series against Siena in the CBI Championship. I still feel the Bulldogs are the better team, which makes them a strong play as a mere 1-point dog tonight.
If it wasn't for turnovers and offensive rebounds the Bulldogs would have likely won Game 1. Fresno State turned it over 16 times to Siena's 8 and allowed the Saints to grab 17 offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs were clearly the better team aside from those mental mistakes. They shot an impressive 48% from the field and held the Saints to a mere 33% shooting.
While both teams will be motivated when they take the floor, this is a do-or-die situation for Fresno State. Siena on the other hand can relax knowing that they don't have to win this game to keep their season alive.
Fresno State is 8-1 ATS in their last 8 when listed as a road underdog of 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite. Combined that forms a 15-1 (94%) system in favor of the Bulldogs!
|04-01-14||Pacific v. Murray State -6||75-98||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
3* College Insider Late Night Bailout on Murray State -
Murray State hasn't let a disappointing finish keep them from showing up in the College Insider Tournament. The Racers went 13-3 in the Ohio Valley during the regular season, with the three losses coming by a combined 13-points. Murray State then suffered a heartbreaking 83-86 defeat to Eastern Kentucky in the Ohio Valley Tournament.
The Racers opened the CIT with a 66-63 road win over Missouri State. They then returned home with convincing wins over Nebraska-Omaha (86-62) and Towson (85-73). Murray State is now 15-1 at home, where they have outscored opponents by just over 13.0 ppg.
While Pacific edged out Grand Canyon 69-67 on the road in their CIT opener, they have had their struggles away from home. In the Tigers last 8 road games they are 3-5 with four of those losses coming by double-digits. The other two wins on the road besides Grand Canyon came against San Diego and Loyola Marymount, who combined went 11-25 in the WCC.
Pacific is just 28-48 ATS in their last 76 road games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Murray State on the other hand is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Racers are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home after playing their last game at home.
|04-01-14||Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets -3||96-105||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Nets -3
Solid value here on the Nets laying just 3-points at home against the Rockets. Brooklyn has won 13 straight at home and are a dominant 11-1 ATS over their last 12 at the Barclays Center. Houston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than 60%.
We also find the Rockets playing at less than full strength. Houston is expected to be without All-Star center Dwight Howard and will once again not have guards Patrick Beverley or Ronnie Brewer available. We could also see forward Terrance Jones added to the list, who is questionable.
In their last game the Rockets lost 107-118 at home to the Clippers. The public will be expecting Houston to bounce back, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a double-digit home defeat. We also ease the concern with the fact that the Rockets won 114-95 at home in the previous matchup against Brooklyn with the fact that the Nets are 13-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season.
Adding even more value to this is a strong system that supports both angles. Teams who are revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the opponent is off a home loss by 10 or more are 109-67 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Nets.
|03-31-14||Siena v. Fresno State -8||61-57||Loss||-109||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* CBI Championship Main Event on Fresno State -
I have the Bulldogs winning at home by double-digits in Game 1 of the CBI Championship Finals. Fresno State was a respectable 13-5 at home this season, where they outscored the opposition by nearly 10 ppg. Siena on the other hand was just 5-13 on the road. Each of the Saints three wins in the CBI all came at home, where they only lost 4 times all season.
Sieana's offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Saints are averaging just 60.3 ppg in the CBI. That's important to note, as Siena is just 1-8 in their last 9 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.
Fresno State is simply the better team and that's evident by the fact that they finished a respectable 9-9 in the Mountain West, compared to Siena's 11-9 record in the soft MAAC.
It's also worth mentioning that Siena's Rob Poole and guard Marquis Wright are both banged up. Poole & Wright are expected to play, but will likely be playing at less than 100%. Poole leads the Saints with 14.7 ppg and Wright averages 8.5 and a team-high 5.4 apg.
|03-31-14||Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||114-104||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Clippers -
Even with the Clippers expected to be without Blake Griffin (doubtful), I feel there is huge value here on Los Angeles as a mere 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and a perfect 3-0 this season versus the Timberwolves.
Minnesota is fresh off a 99-114 loss at Brooklyn, which has them a full 7-games back of the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race. While they aren't mathematically eliminated, they know their not playing past the regular season. The letdown from missing the playoffs should have the Timberwolves coming out flat over their final 10 games.
While the Clippers are safely in the playoffs, they are just 1.5-games back of the Thunder for the No. 2 seed. That's more than enough motivation to finish strong.
Road favorites off 2 or more consecutive road wins who have won at least 60% of their games are 40-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of Los Angeles. The Clippers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when listed as a favorite off a road win as an underdog.
|03-31-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5||103-77||Loss||-108||8 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers +4.5
The Pacers' are a league-best 33-4 at home this season and are showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point underdog. While the Pacers have lost two straight and four of five overall, each of those defeats came on the road. Indiana hasn't lost at home since March 4.
I'm confident the Pacers will show up in this one, as they should be extremely motivated to snap out of their funk and put an end to the Spurs 17-game winning streak. Even more reason to get up for this game is the fact that Indiana has lost 5 straight at home to San Antonio. You have to like that the Pacers didn't have any trouble getting past the Spurs in their previous meeting this season. Indiana came away with a 111-100 victory in San Antonio.
We find a solid system telling us to fade the Spurs. Teams revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points against an opponent who is fresh off an upset loss to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Pacers covering.
We also see that underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in at least 12 of their last 15 games against an opponent who has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system backing Indiana!
|03-30-14||Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Boston Celtics||107-102||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls -
The Chicago Bills are clearly the much better team in this matchup, and I don't think this line is giving them enough credit. Chicago may have clinched a playoff spot, but they are still playing to improve their position since they currently sit in fourth place in the East. Picking up a win over Boston would potentially move them into a tie for third with Toronto.
This biggest advantage Chicago has in this game is its outstanding defense. The Bulls have held opponents to a mere 91.9 points per game this season. They have an easy task at hand facing the offensively challenged Celtics tonight. Boston is averaging a mere 95.6 points per game, and they barely get a boost in production at home improving to just 95.8 points per game. Defensively Boston has been soft allowing 99.7 points per game. Over their last five games the Celtics have been even worse, surrendering 101.6 points per game.
This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams like Chicago when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games overall on the season. This system has a 109-54 (67%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Bulls come into this matchup with a 40-32 record which puts them right at 55 percent on the season. After a poor showing against Portland in their last outing I think the Bulls are coming into this matchup completely undervalued.
|03-30-14||Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5||75-72||Loss||-115||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Michigan +
The Wildcats have put together a nice run in the NCAA Tournament, but that ends today against the underrated Michigan Wolverines. Michigan will be one of the best shooting teams the Wildcats have faced, and I don't think Kentucky's defense is good enough to slow them down. The Wolverines are making 47.7 percent of their attempts from the field, and an impressive 40.2 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line.
The Wildcats receive a lot of credit for a young roster that is loaded with one-and-done caliber players. In a game of this magnitude I will take the Wolverines who have not only NBA caliber talent, but also the experience to go along with it. Michigan made a run at the championship last season, and they are hungry to get back into that game to prove they are worthy of a national championship. Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III are two of the best players in the country, and Kentucky will not have an answer for both of them.
Kentucky relies on a lot of its scoring coming from the free throw line. They average 29 free throw attempts per game. They will not have that luxury against a smart basketball team like Michigan because the Wolverines average only 14 personal fouls per game and have allowed opponents just 15 attempts from the line. Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams being called for 17 or less fouls per game. Michigan has been a great team to back in the postseason, posting a 19-8 ATS record in their last 27 games and I look for that trend to continue today.
|03-29-14||Wisconsin v. Arizona -2.5||64-63||Loss||-110||27 h 40 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Arizona -
The Wildcats get a lot of credit for their defense, and it is well deserved. However, it is Arizona's scoring ability that gives them a big advantage over the Badgers. Arizona averages a respectable 73.1 points per game on the season, and they are +14.7 points in scoring differential. The defense ranks fifth in the country allowing 58.4 points per game, and after adjusting for strength of schedule you could make a strong argument that the Wildcats are the best in the nation.
The biggest advantage Arizona has in this matchup is its rebounding ability. The Wildcats average 38 rebounds per game to just 33 from the Badgers. On the offensive glass Arizona is pulling in 10 boards, to just eight from Wisconsin. Both of these teams are excellent ball control teams, and both of put up similar numbers on the offensive end of the court, but it is Arizona's defense and rebounding ability that makes them an easy call to advance to the Final Four.
The path to the Elite Eight has presented Arizona with several different types of challengers. Against Gonzaga the Wildcats were tasked with shutting down an explosive offense, and against San Diego State they had to get by a very tough defense. Arizona is 14-5 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams that are allowing less than 64 points per game so I don't expect the Wildcats to have any problem getting past Wisconsin. It is also worth noting that Arizona is 20-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.
|03-29-14||Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Washington Wizards||97-101||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Atlanta Hawks +
The Washington Wizards need to be on upset alert tonight. Atlanta has played extremely well against the division this season. The Hawks average 104.2 points per game against division opponents, and they will face a Wizards defense that has been struggling recently allowing 101 points per game.
The Wizards are playing in a bad letdown spot. First of all, they are coming off an upset win as an underdog against the Indiana Pacers. They are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation while Atlanta has the luxury of coming into this matchup with a day of rest.
You should play on road teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 98 to 102 points per game when they are coming off two or more games allowing 100 points or more. This system is 88-33 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The Hawks have surrendered 100 plus in three straight games, but the oddsmakers have undervalued them in this matchup since offensively the team should score at-will against the Wizards.
|03-29-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2||118-107||Loss||-110||11 h 58 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -
The Houston Rockets have one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the league. They are averaging 108.8 points per game at home, and over their last five games that number is an even more impressive 118.2 points per game. Houston is on fire coming into this matchup having won five consecutive games.
The Clippers may have won three of their last five games, but they have been getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers in those matchups. Los Angeles is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. The Clippers defense is also in big trouble tonight against the Rockets. They have surrendered 101.2 points per game on the road, and 102.4 points per game over their last five games, but have not faced a team that scores as quickly and easily as Houston during that stretch.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Houston that are making 33 to 36.5 percent of their three-point attempts when they are facing a team allowing that same range defensively, and they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers against an average pressure defense that forces 14.6 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 59-32 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-28-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +7.5||133-102||Loss||-104||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +
The Spurs have put together a long winning streak, but they struggled at home on Wednesday when facing the Nuggets. Now they get the Nuggets again, but this time in Denver. The Spurs won the last meeting by just five points in San Antonio, so getting over seven points on the Nuggets in Denver is a gift from the oddsmakers.
The Nuggets may not have a great record, but they have certainly been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations. Denver has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games. Covering the spread usually comes pretty easy for a team that is averaging 105.1 points per game at home. It is also worth noting that Denver is 10-1 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 70 percent or more of its games on the season.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Nuggets. You should play on underdogs like Denver when they average 103 points per game or more, and they allowed 55 points or more in the first have of their last two games. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued. It has resulted in a 55-27 (67%) record against the spread.
|03-28-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5||91-74||Loss||-109||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -
The Bulls have a lot to play for tonight so I expect to see them put on a very strong showing. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Trail Blazers, and you have to like their chances to do so considering the situation Portland is playing in. The Trail Blazers will play their fifth consecutive road game, and it also happens to be the second half of a back-to-back after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday.
The Bulls and Pacers can both make strong arguments for the best defense in the NBA. I would lean towards Chicago taking that crown when they have the luxury of playing on their home court. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 89.4 points per game at home this season while Portland comes into this matchup allowing 104.9 points per game on the road. Chicago's defense has been incredibly solid recently, allowing just 88 points per game over their last five games. They get to face a Trail Blazers team whose scoring average has dipped from 106.8 points per game down to a mere 97.2 points per game over their last five games.
You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Chicago when they are playing only their second game in the last five days and are up against an opponent playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system has an 82-42 (66%) record against the spread. When that team is a home favorite the system tightens up to 30-11 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-28-14||Tennessee +2.5 v. Michigan||71-73||Win||100||52 h 26 m||Show|
4* Midwest Heavy Hitter Play of the Day on Tennessee +
The Volunteers are the most underrated team in the remaining NCAA Tournament field. Tennessee may come into this game with 12 losses on the season, but only one of those 12 losses came by a double-digit margin and it was on the road against now No. 1 in the country Florida. Tennessee has won eight of its last nine games, with the only loss during that stretch also coming against Florida on a neutral court in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has faced an incredibly difficult schedule this season and that will have them well prepared for the Wolverines.
Michigan is a team that has exceeded its talent level all year. Nine of the Wolverine's wins have come by five points or less. I expect them to struggle against Tennessee's underrated defense. The Volunteers have held opponents to a mere 61.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road that number barely increases, allowing just 63.2 points per game away from home. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have surrendered over 67 points per game against opponents with a scoring average that is much lower than Tennessee's.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Volunteers. You should play on teams like Tennessee when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that is committing less than 12 turnovers per game, after five consecutive games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system identifies teams with great ball control and excellent defensive skills that the oddsmakers are undervaluing. It has resulted in a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-27-14||Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||100-85||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider of the Week on Portland Trail Blazers -
The Atlanta Hawks are playing in a very tough spot today. They have lost four consecutive games, and now the Hawks are tasked with facing a hungry Portland team in the second half of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Portland is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The Trailblazers have played in some close games recently and have caught a few bad breaks. I think they will be the hungry team in this matchup and easily pick up a big win over Atlanta.
The Trail Blazers explosive offense gives them a big advantage over Atlanta. When playing on the road Portland averages an impressive 105.8 points per game. They are facing an Atlanta team whose offense is really struggling right now. The Hawks are 1-4 over their last five games and have scored just 97.4 points per game during that stretch.
This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like Atlanta when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent and are coming off a road loss. This system is 236-144 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Portland that average 102 points per game or more against a team allowing over 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 194-126 (61%) against the spread.
|03-27-14||Dayton v. Stanford -3||Top||82-72||Loss||-112||31 h 2 m||Show|
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Stanford -
Dayton's Cinderella dream has run its course, and the Flyers are about to run into a nightmare when they face the Stanford Cardinal. The Flyers played an incredibly soft schedule to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament, and they were lucky enough to draw two of the most overrated teams in the tournament in the first two rounds.
Of the 10 games Dayton played against NCAA Tournament teams this season, only one of those teams remains in the tournament today. Meanwhile, Stanford played 16 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and seven of those games came against teams that are still alive in the Sweet 16. The Cardinal may look similar on the stat sheet to Dayton, but after adjusting for strength of schedule it becomes obvious there is a great disparity in talent between these two.
This matchup fits into a system that has a long history of success against the spread. You should play on teams like Stanford when the line is three points or less and they are averaging 12 or less turnovers per game, and are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. This system has a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Stanford is 11-3 ATS versus teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season.
|03-26-14||San Diego +3.5 v. Pacific||Top||60-75||Loss||-106||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on San Diego +
These teams split there games during the regular season, but the last matchup was won by San Diego in a game that was played at Pacific. I don't think there is any reason to expect a different outcome today. The Toreros have one of the best defenses in the West Coast Conference, holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points per game.
Pacific did not fare well against conference opponents this season. They posted a mere 6-13 record. The Tigers averaged a mediocre 70.6 points in those games, but on the defensive end of the court they surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game against the conference. These teams were also headed in opposite directions down the stretch. San Diego has won five of its last seven games while Pacific has lost five of its last eight games.
San Diego is 30-11 ATS in road games when playing a team that has won just 51 to 60 percent of its games on the season. After 15 or more games in the season that system tightens up to a 20-5 ATS record. The Toreros are the better team, and regardless of venue they should be able to pick up a win. We will take the points, but expect to see San Diego come out on top tonight.
|03-26-14||Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 216.5||103-108||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
3* Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER -
The value in this matchup is clearly on the under. Over their last five games the Supers have been playing incredibly well on defense. They are holding opponents to just 94.6 points per game during that stretch. The team is already solid defensively when playing at home, allowing just 97.5 points per game on the season.
When the Spurs are covering spreads it is generally because they are playing well on defense. The under is 31-13 in home games when San Antonio has covered the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games. The under is 62-34 in Denver's road games when facing an opponent from the Southwest division.
This matchup also fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 210 points or more, and one of the teams (Denver) is revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system has a 71-38 (65%) record in favor of the under.
|03-26-14||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons -5.5||97-96||Loss||-105||9 h 15 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Detroit Pistons -
The Cavaliers are still without Kyrie Irving and I think it will catch up with them tonight. Cleveland picked up a win at home last night over Toronto, but now the Cavaliers are forced to play in a back-to-back situation with this second half game coming on the road against Detroit. It is also Cleveland's fourth game in the last five days.
The Cavaliers have not fared well on the road this season. They are losing two games for every one road win. Detroit comes into this matchup having won two of its last three home games, and they are playing some pretty solid basketball against division opponents. Detroit is surrendering just 97 points per game against the division, a number that is will below their overall defensive scoring average on the season.
You should play on a team like Detroit when they are scoring 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing that same number after 42 or more games, and when coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies teams who have a hot offense right now. It has led to a 60-32 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|03-25-14||Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 195||100-102||Loss||-110||8 h 45 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Cavs UNDER -
Both of these teams are playing with a day of rest so this matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Raptors have surrendered an average of just 97.4 points per game on the road this season. They are facing a Cavaliers team that is not known for scoring a lot of points. Cleveland comes into this matchup averaging 97.3 points per game, and against a tough defense like Toronto's I think that number will be even lower today.
While Cleveland may not score a lot of points, the Cavaliers are a much better team defensively than they get credit for. Cleveland has held opponents to 99.3 points per game when playing at home. That bodes well for the under since Toronto's offensive production takes a big hit in road games. Both teams are playing with key injuries, and I think that will also have a big impact on the total score.
You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Toronto) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system has a 142-93 (60%) record in favor of the under. It is also worth noting that the under is 10-1 when Cleveland is coming off a road win, and it is 16-4 when Toronto is playing a team winning 25 to 40 percent of its games in the the second half of the season.
|03-25-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic +6||85-95||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +
This line screams trap game for Portland backers. The Magic are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, and they face a Trail Blazers team that is playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after losing on the road against Miami last night. After suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss like that I don't think Portland will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to cover a six-point spread.
The Magic are not a great team, I don't think anybody would argue that, but they are pretty solid at home. It is worth noting that 15 of their 19 wins this season have come on their home court. Orlando's record at home is just a few games back from Portland's record on the road. The Magic should also score at will in this game against a soft Trail Blazers defense. Portland has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road and 109.6 points per game over their last five games.
Portland is 13-25 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, and they are 10-22 ATS after playing two or more consecutive games as an underdog. This is a mentally weak team. The Trail Blazers have now lost seven of their last 10 games. We will take the points with Orlando, but it would not be surprising to see Portland drop its third consecutive game tonight.
|03-25-14||Belmont v. Clemson -7||Top||68-73||Loss||-115||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NIT Game of the Year on Clemson -
The Clemson Tigers have flown under the radar for most of the season. It may come as a surprise to know that Clemson has the nation's fourth ranked scoring defense. The Tigers are the only team in the top five scoring defenses that are not still active in the NCAA Tournament. That is a good indication of just how important good defense is in the postseason. Clemson has held opponents to a mere 57.9 points per game. When playing at home that number drops to an even 54 points per game.
The Tigers have a dominant 15-3 record when protecting their home court. They will face a Belmont team that sees a drastic drop in production when playing on the road. The Bruins have surrendered an average of 75.3 points in road games. Belmont has also been a big disappointment when playing on the road or on a neutral court in tournament games. They have a 5-14 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons.
This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Clemson when they are coming from a BCS conference and are playing against a team from a mid-major, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins. Clemson beat Georgia State and Illinois to start the NIT Tournament. This system has a 40-14 (74%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting the Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games coming into this matchup.
|03-24-14||Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Clippers -16||98-106||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* Bailout Blowout on LA Clippers -
This may seem like a lot of points, but when you look at the disparity in talent between these teams the value is clearly with the Clippers. Milwaukee has won a mere five games on the road this season. They are losing those matchups by a near double-digit margin and now have to face one of the leagues hottest teams with one of the highest scoring offenses. You also have to consider the fact that Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing 17 point loss at Sacramento just last night.
The Clippers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and with an offense that is averaging 110.7 points per game. Defensively Los Angeles has been great when playing at home. They have held opponents to a mere 99.4 points per game this season. Milwaukee is sitting well below the Clipper's opponents scoring average of 101.1 points per game. The Bucks are averaging 95.2 points per game.
Milwaukee is 4-16 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by six or more points per game. They are also 10-22 ATS against teams that are making 46 percent or more of their shot attempts. The Clippers come into this matchup making over 48 percent of their attempts at home, and they will have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Bucks.
|03-24-14||LSU v. SMU -6||67-80||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on SMU -
The SMU Mustangs will play host to the LSU Tigers in a second round NIT matchup. The Mustangs picked up a dominating 14-point win over UC-Irvine in the first round of play, due in large part to a defense that has been underrated for most of the season. SMU is allowing 62 points per game overall, but when playing at home that number drops all the way down to 58.6 points per game surrendered.
The Mustangs have posted an 11-2 ATS record on their home court, and a 16-1 overall record in those games. Meanwhile, the LSU Tigers have a losing record of 7-10 overall when playing on the road, and 6-9 record against the spread in those games. There is a lot of disparity in talent between these teams. SMU was able to win their last game by 14 points even though they shot just 33.9 percent from the field. The Mustangs defense is incredibly good, and they should have no problem shutting down the Tigers.
You should play on a team like SMU after going under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games when they are playing in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This system is 42-18 (70%) against the spread. When they have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last seven games the system tightens up to 34-14 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-24-14||Detroit Pistons v. Utah Jazz +1||114-94||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +
The Jazz should have no problem picking up a win over Detroit tonight. The Pistons are riding a five game losing streak, and they are showing no signs of life. Things have not been going well for the Jazz either, but they are playing in a great spot to pick up a second consecutive win tonight. They picked up a big victory over Orlando in their last outing, and Utah has the luxury of playing the host role in this matchup.
Detroit is a bad team, but when playing on the road they somehow go from bad to worse. The Pistons have won a mere 10 road games all season. They are surrendering 105.1 points per game on the road, while the offense is barely able to keep up with opponents' defensive scoring averages at 100.6 points per game. The last time these teams met Utah picked up a dominating win over Detroit. The Pistons were the host team in that matchup, and ended up losing to the Jazz with a 89-110 final score.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pistons. You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more, and are coming off two road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 63-29 (69%) record against the spread.
|03-24-14||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -8||Top||92-109||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -
Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games.
The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight.
This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|03-23-14||Baylor v. Creighton -3.5||Top||85-55||Loss||-102||11 h 6 m||Show|
5* West Region Game of the Year Creighton -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Creighton Bluejays are one of the best three-point shooting teams left in the tournament. They are making 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts this season. McDermott and Co. will have the luxury of facing a Baylor defense that has been soft around the perimeter. Baylor has allowed opponents to make 39.2 percent of their attempts when playing away from home.
The Bluejays do not just have a three point shooting advantage, they also have advantages in rebounding and ball control. On the boards Creighton has allowed opponents just nine offensive rebounds per game. Without second chance shot attempts from offensive rebounds the Bears will struggle to keep pace with Creighton's high powered offensive attack. The Bluejays are also an excellent ball control team committing a mere 10 turnovers per game, so even if the Bears do decide to dial up some pressure it could likely widen Creighton's margin of victory.
Creighton is a team that gets hot and plays extremely well. The Bluejays are 13-6 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 points or more this season. The Bluejays are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Bears do not have a player on the roster that can slow down Doug McDermott. Even if he gets double or triple teamed the Bluejays have very talented shooters around him. McDermott is coming into this game averaging 27 points, 7.1 rebounds and is shooting almost 46 percent on three point attempts.
|03-23-14||Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks -9.5||106-100||Loss||-105||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on New York Knicks -
The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won eight consecutive games and will look for a ninth straight win tonight when they host the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is riding a four game losing streak, and the Cavaliers are playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after hosting Houston last night.
Over their last five games the Cavaliers have been playing right in line with their season averages in both scoring and points allowed. On the offensive side of things they have averaged 97 points per game, while defensively they have surrendered 103.2 points per game. They are 1-4 during that stretch. The Cavaliers are simply a bad team, and they will struggle to keep this game within single-digits against a red hot Knicks team that is averaging 107.8 points per game over their last five games.
This matchup fits into a system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and they are trying to revenging a home loss against their opponent when that loss came by 10 points or more, and they are coming into this matchup off a home loss. The last time these teams met the Knicks picked up a 107-97 win in Cleveland just a couple weeks ago, and the Cavaliers coming off a seven point loss to Houston last night. This system is 58-29 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-23-14||North Carolina +2 v. Iowa State||83-85||Push||0||8 h 20 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on North Carolina +
I think the oddsmakers have severely underestimated the impact Georges Niang has for Iowa State. Niang averages 16.7 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 3.6 assists per game. His contributions are just as big on the defensive end of the court. While he may not receive the same kind of attention that Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane do, Niang's statistical contributions are just as good.
With Niang out the Tar Heels should score at will in the paint. Niang was only 6' 7" but he made his presence known down low. Now the Cyclones will have to deal with three Tar Heel forwards all listed at 6' 9" and up. Kennedy Meeks, James Michael McAdoo and Brice Johnson combined for 44 points in North Carolina's win over Providence. It would also be hard to go against a Roy Williams coached team at this point in the Tournament. North Carolina lost in the third round last season, but under Williams they have never been eliminated that early in back-to-back seasons.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Carolina. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued recent performances. You should play on a team like North Carolina that has failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, when they are facing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. This system has a 139-83 (63%) record against the spread over he last five seasons.
|03-22-14||Oregon v. Wisconsin -5||Top||77-85||Win||100||34 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Wisconsin -
This game is being played in Milwaukee, so it is essentially a home game for the Badgers. That will be a huge advantage for them since Oregon had to travel across the country and its doubtful they will have much support from the fan base. The Ducks have to face a very smart basketball team. Wisconsin doesn't foul. Opponents who average 22 free throws per game are only getting 15 per game against them. Teams like Oregon that get to the line struggle against the Badgers as Wisconsin is 22-7 ATS against teams shooting 25 or more free throws per game in the second half of the season dating back to 1997.
Oregon shoots an impressive 38.6% from behind the arc, but Wisconsin doesn't allow teams to shoot threes. Badgers are 8th best in the nation, allowing teams that shoot 18 threes per game to only get off 14 against them. On the flip side Oregon has been good at pressuring teams, which leads to turnovers forced, but also a lot of fouls. That's bad news on both fronts as Wisconsin turns the ball over 8 times per game, they aren't going to get flustered. They also shoot 75% from the line. The Ducks give up 27 free throws per game to teams that average only 23.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Badgers. You should play on neutral court favorites like Wisconsin after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, when they are up against an opponent coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. BYU has one of the worst defenses in the region, and the oddsmakers have overvalued Oregon's ball control ability coming into this matchup. Wisconsin has a tough Big Ten defense and should easily shut the Ducks down. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread.
|03-22-14||Texas v. Michigan -5||65-79||Win||106||8 h 23 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Michigan -
Texas gets a lot of credit for being a great rebounding team, but they will be at a serious disadvantage against the Wolverines today. Michigan has held its opponents to a total of just 31 rebounds per game, allowing a mere eight of those rebounds to come on the offensive glass. Texas is used to averaging closer to double that number.
Michigan is also the better ball control team. The Wolverines average just nine turnovers per game. Texas is 2-10 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams committing 12 or less turnovers per game after 15 or more games on the season. Combine that with a near 10 percent advantage from the free throw line, as well as a shooting advantage from the field and beyond the three point line and this game quickly looks like there is serious blowout potential for Michigan.
Both teams may average close to 74 points per game, but Michigan has built up that average against teams allowing just 67 points per game while Texas has done so against teams surrendering 71 points per game. The Longhorns have been receiving too much credit from the oddsmakers down the stretch. Texas has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games and they are 11-24 ATS in this situation when playing on the road or a neutral court.
|03-21-14||Providence +4 v. North Carolina||77-79||Win||100||77 h 26 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Providence +
A strong performance in the NCAA Tournament is all about getting hot at the right time. Providence has done just that winning six of its last seven games and looking for a fourth consecutive win when they face North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels dropped two straight to end the season getting beat by a double-digit margin against Duke and losing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament versus Pitt.
I don't think the Tar Heels are a team that is as good as their record. They have some major problems on the defensive end of the court surrendering 71.8 points per game when playing away from home. The Friars are no stranger to facing top tier competition. They faced seven ranked opponents this season. It is also worth noting that four of the Friar's 11 losses came by four points or less this season.
This matchup fits into a system to play against a neutral court favorite like North Carolina when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games. This system is 30-11 (73%) ATS over the last five years. When that team is playing in a tournament game the system tightens up to 30-9 (77%) against the spread over the last five season.
|03-21-14||Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 181||79-91||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER -
The Chicago Bulls have played great defense all season, but it seems as though they save there best work for division opponents. Chicago has surrendered a mere 87.1 points per game against division opponents this season. If you are worried about how the defense will do on the road there is no cause for concern. First of all, its a short road trip to Indiana, but the Bulls have also held opponents to just 92.4 points per game on the road this season.
The Indiana Pacers have also played some outstanding defense. Indiana allows a mere 87.1 points per game at home this season, and they have held division opponents to a similar number at 89.7 points per game. Both of these teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest which always seems to help on the defensive end of the court. It is also worth noting that Chicago has gone under the total in two of its last three games while Indiana has gone under in four of its last five games.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points, in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 41.5 to 43.5 percent and two good rebounding teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin. This system has a 50-20 (71%) record in favor of the under.
|03-21-14||Eastern Kentucky +15 v. Kansas||69-80||Win||100||75 h 36 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Kentucky +
The Kansas Jayhawks might be the most overrated No. 2 seed in the tournament, at least without Joel Embiid in the lineup. Eastern Kentucky has an explosive offense that should have no problem competing with the Jayhawks. The Colonels come into this game averaging 78.7 points per game when playing away from home. That is two points more than the Jayhawks are scoring in road or neutral court games this season.
Kansas has been a very soft team defensively. It is surrendering 73.5 points per game on the road, and 70.5 points per game overall. That poor play has not been limited to facing Big 12 opponents. Even during the non-conference portion of play this season Kansas surrendered 83 points to Toledo and 78 points to a bad Wake Forest team.
Eastern Kentucky may be coming out of the Ohio Valley conference but they are no stranger to playing good teams. The Colonels went to overtime in a road game against VCU this season and they are riding a seven game win streak coming into this matchup. The Colonels are 39-19 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more.
|03-21-14||Weber State v. Arizona -19.5||59-68||Loss||-110||72 h 11 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on Arizona -
Weber State is not worthy of their spot in the NCAA Tournament. If not for winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament the Wildcats would likely be watching the Big Dance on television this year. Arizona was the No. 1 team in the nation for seven weeks this season, and they will have no problem picking up a big win in this game.
Two of Weber State's 11 losses came by 20 points or more. They were crushed by Colorado State and UCLA. They have yet to face a team as talented as Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats have the nation's fifth ranked scoring defense allowing a mere 58.1 points per game. They have put those respectable numbers up against much stronger teams than Weber State.
Weber State is 0-8 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams that have allowed a shooting percentage of 42 percent or less. They are also 1-9 ATS in road or neutral court games when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by an average of eight or more points per game. All signs point to a blowout win for Arizona.
|03-21-14||Mercer v. Duke -12.5||78-71||Loss||-106||3 h 9 m||Show|
3* Blowout on Duke -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Mercer's stat sheet is very inflated thanks to a soft schedule. The Bears only faced two teams playing in the NCAA Tournament all season, both losses, and four of Mercer's eight losses came by a double-digit margin. Mercer's opponents had a defensive scoring average of 74.4 points per game, so the fact that Mercer is scoring 79.3 points per game is a bit misleading.
Duke comes into this matchup averaging 78.6 points per game. That is a lot more meaningful than Mercer's scoring average since Duke's opponents have surrendered an average of just 66.1 points per game on the season. The Blue Devils also faced 13 teams playing in the NCAA Tournament, and they played eight games against ranked opponents. Facing a team like Mercer is going to feel like playing a practice squad, especially since Duke is known for reserving its best basketball for when it counts the most.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Duke. You should play on neutral court teams as a favorite after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. Mercer may be a good ball control team when facing Atlantic Sun opponents, but that won't be the case against one of the ACC's top teams. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread.
|03-20-14||Washington Wizards v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 206.5||103-116||Win||100||13 h 1 m||Show|
3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Blazers OVER -
The total for this contest has been set far too low for a game involving two explosive offenses and two teams that do not play a lot of defense. Over their last five games the Blazers have surrendered an average of 108.6 points per game. On the offensive end of the court Portland is averaging 106.4 points per game during that stretch.
With Portland playing soft defense lately the Wizards are in a great spot to put a big number up on the scoreboard. Washington averages over 100 points per game on the road, and they have done so against opponents with a defensive scoring average that is far less than the 103.2 points per game Portland has surrendered this season. The Wizards defense could also be in for a long night. Washington has surrendered 100.4 points per game this season against opponents with a scoring average of 100.3 points per game. Tonight they are up against a Blazers team averaging 108 points per game at home.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the over. You should play the over when any team (Portland) went over the total by 18 or more points in their previous game and they are facing an opponent that went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. Portland went over the total by 29 points in their last outing against Milwaukee, while Washington went over by 27 points in their last outing against Sacramento. This system is 383-260 (60%) in favor of the over.
|03-20-14||Western Michigan v. Syracuse -12.5||Top||53-77||Win||100||50 h 58 m||Show|
5* Opening Round Game of the Year on Syracuse -
There is no denying the fact that Syracuse had a poor finish to the regular season, but they also played a very tough stretch of schedule to finish the year. This is still the same team that opened the season with a perfect 25-0 record. It is also worth noting that even though Syracuse lost five of its final seven games, four of those seven games were played on the road and three of the five losses came by four points or less.
Western Michigan posted a respectable 23-9 record this season, but coming out of the MAC that does not mean a lot. They faced one ranked team all season, then No. 24 Missouri, and the Tigers are not even playing in the NCAA Tournament this season. I think the Broncos are severely outmatched against a top tier team like the Orange, and Syracuse runs the zone defense better than any team in the country so expect a lot of turnovers and little scoring from Western Michigan.
Western Michigan relies heavily on its ability to get to the free throw line to win games. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS against teams attempting 25 or more three throws per game. The reason they have been so successful in these situations is because the Orange are a smart basketball team that avoids getting into foul trouble. Syracuse is also 8-2 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days this season.
|03-20-14||American v. Wisconsin -13.5||35-75||Win||100||48 h 47 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Wisconsin -
The Badgers might be one of the most underrated teams in the tournament this season. This is a team that opened the season winning 16 consecutive games and ranked as high as No. 3 in the country. Wisconsin may have been a little over confident coming into Big 10 play, but they finished the year with a strong showing, and should make easy work of No. 15 seeded American.
I don't think playing in the Patriot league has the American Eagles prepared for a matchup against a tough Big Ten team like Wisconsin. The Eagles lost seven of their first 10 games during non-conference play this season. The Eagles could be in for a long day facing this Badger's defense. They average a mere 63.9 points per game this season, and Wisconsin has surrendered 64.5 points per game against teams with a scoring average over 71 points per game.
The Badgers have an outstanding perimeter defense. They have posted an 11-3 ATS record in road or neutral court games when facing teams that make 37 percent or more of their three point attempts. The fact that American relies so heavily on their ability to successfully shoot three pointers gives Wisconsin a huge matchup advantage. The Badgers are also 11-3 ATS against teams averaging 33 or less rebounds per game and American comes into this matchup pulling in a mere 30 rebounds per game with just six coming on the offensive glass.
|03-20-14||Dayton v. Ohio State -6||60-59||Loss||-106||47 h 22 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on Ohio State -
Ohio State has the nation's 12th ranked scoring defense. The Buckeyes have surrendered a mere 59.8 points per game, and they should make easy work of the Flyers in this game. Dayton has been mediocre on offense averaging 73.4 points per game, but that has come against opponents allowing 10 points per game more than what Ohio State is surrendering this year. When you look at strength of schedule that disparity becomes even more obvious.
The Buckeyes opened the season with a perfect 15-0 record. In a conference as talented as the Big 10 it is not surprising to see some inconsistency throughout conference play. What we do know is Dayton is a six loss team in the inferior Atlantic 10 conference, and the Flyers add an additional four losses during non-conference play. Dayton suffered double-digit blowout losses against VCU, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph's this year, and Ohio State will be adding its name to that list.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Buckeyes. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio State when they are from a BCS conference and coming off a loss to a conference opponent and they are facing a team from a second tier conference like Dayton. This system is 61-29 (68%) against the spread. The Atlantic 10 is not as good as all the hype coming into the tournament so Ohio State should dominate this game.
|03-19-14||Fresno State v. UTEP -4.5||61-56||Loss||-106||32 h 9 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -
The Miners might be the most underrated team in the CBI tournament. They posted a 23-10 overall record, and half of those losses came by five points or less. UTEP managed to stick to within four points on a neutral court against then No. 2 in the country, Kansas, and I expect to see them make easy work of Fresno State today.
Fresno State is a very bad road team. They posted a 6-11 record in road games this season. A big reason for their complete lack of success away from home can be credited to a defense that surrendered 74.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the Miners come into this matchup with one of the best defenses in the tournament, holding opponents to a mere 63.4 points per game.
UTEP is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 24-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Over the last three seasons the Miners have posted a 21-10 ATS record in non-conference games. Coming out of C-USA has the Miners underrated, and they should make easy work of Fresno State in this game.
|03-19-14||Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Pelicans||107-100||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans have been playing well recently, while Toronto seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Now New Orleans will play host to the Raptors after two days of rest while Toronto is playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors were on the road last night against Atlanta. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but back to back road games gives New Orleans a big advantage.
The Pelicans offense is on fire right now. Over their last five games they are averaging an impressive 107 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Raptors squad that has struggled on the road this year averaging just 99 points per game. Toronto's defense is playing horribly right now. They have surrendered 119.5 points per game over the last two games and things will not get any easier tonight when they are playing without rest against this red hot Pelicans offense.
You should play against teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game like Toronto after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games and they are facing a team allowing 102 points per game or more. This system has a 77-40 (66%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting that New Orleans is 114-83 against the spread in home games when revenging a same season loss.
|03-19-14||Princeton -7 v. Tulane||Top||56-55||Loss||-110||31 h 9 m||Show|
5* CBI Game of the Year on Princeton -
The Princeton Tigers are clearly the better team in this matchup. They finished the season riding a five game win streak, and posted a 20-8 overall record. Some might argue the Ivy league is soft, but even during non-conference play the Tigers put on a dominating 12-2 showing. They suffered a mere three point loss on the road against Butler, and held to within six points on the road against Harvard, a team now playing in the NCAA Tournament.
The Tulane Green Wave finished the regular season headed in the opposite direction. They lost three of their last four games, and cannot be excited about playing in the CBI. The Green Wave had a wealth of issues on the offensive end of the court this year. Their 63.9 points per game ranks them 317th in the country for scoring. They are also 237th in rebounds per game, 348th in assists per game and 309th in shooting percentage from the field.
The Princeton Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against conference USA opponents. They are 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. Tulane meanwhile is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams winning 60 percent or more of their games. The Green Wave are severely outmatched in this game and the Tigers should have no problem picking up an easy win in their CBI opener.
**I'd play this as a 5* up to -9 and 4* up to -10.**
|03-18-14||Utah -1 v. St Mary's CA||58-70||Loss||-115||14 h 45 m||Show|
3* Bailout Blowout on Utah -
The difficult Pac-12 schedule played by Utah has made this matchup look a little more even than it is. The Utes have a 21-11 overall record, but they faced five ranked opponents this season. Saint Mary's on the other hand did not face a single ranked opponent all season.
The Utes are one of the country's best shooting teams. In fact, they ranked 12th in the nation in field goal percentage, making 48.9 percent of their attempts. Saint Mary's suffered bad losses to both BYU and Gonzaga, two teams that are very comparable to the Utes. I think the Gaels are severely outmatched from a talent perspective, and home court advantage will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game in their favor.
Utah is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 21-10 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Saint Mary's is 2-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. All signs point to a Utah blowout tonight.
|03-18-14||Belmont v. Wisc-Green Bay -6||80-65||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Green Bay -
After finishing first in the Ohio Valley East, Belmont had to believe they would be making a return to the NCAA Tournament. I think playing in the NIT has to be a bigger disappointment for Belmont than it is for Green Bay, and that could cause some motivation issues for this game. Green Bay actually posted a better record than Belmont on the year with just six losses. Four of those six losses came against teams playing in the NCAA Tournament.
Green Bay's defense gives them a huge advantage in this matchup. They are playing on their home court where they allow a mere 60.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Belmont has surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game on the road. On the offensive end of the court the Phoenix should be fine. They average 74.6 points per game, and with the defense shutting Belmont down they should easily score enough points to cover this spread.
Belmont has struggled in tournament games in recent years. In fact, the Bruins are 4-14 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. Green Bay is 20-6 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a conference rival when they are playing as a home favorite. The Phoenix are the better team, and it will show on the court tonight.
|03-18-14||Toronto Raptors -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||113-118||Loss||-108||10 h 19 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -
The Raptors are an easy call in this matchup with Atlanta. The Hawks are playing in a tough spot today after picking up a road win over Charlotte last night. It was a defensive battle that had to take its toll on Atlanta, and now they are forced to play in the second half of a back-to-back situation against a hungry team like the Raptors.
Toronto is coming into this game with a day of rest. The Raptors have won 11 of their last 15 games, and they are playing like a team on a mission. Over their last five games they have averaged 104.2 points per game. They should have no problem scoring on an Atlanta defense that has surrendered 102.1 points per game on the season.
You should play against home dogs like Atlanta when they are trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more and their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This system is 102-61 (63%) against the spread. You should also play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are off a road win and trying to revenge a loss. This system has a 92-50 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-18-14||Mount Saint Mary's v. Albany NY -2.5||64-71||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Albany -
Albany has a huge advantage for this play-in game against Mount Saint Mary's. The Great Danes have been an outstanding team defensively, holding opponents to a mere 63.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have surrendered an average of 78 points per game this season. When playing on the road Mount Saint Mary's is allowing an astonishing 81.6 points per game.
Albany will also have a big rebounding advantage in this game. The Great Danes average 35 rebounds per game, with a +3 figure in rebounding margin. The Mountaineers on the other hand are -4 in rebounding margin. It is also worth noting that Mount Saint Mary's averages just seven offensive rebounds per game when playing away from home. Without second chance shot attempts from a strong showing on the offensive glass the Mountaineers will be in serious trouble today.
Albany has been a spread covering machine against poor pressure defenses. They are 8-1 ATS against teams forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Great Danes are also 6-0 ATS against poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. The Mountaineers have two players that do the majority of the team's scoring, and that makes them easy to defend.
|03-17-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets +4.5||100-110||Win||100||12 h 42 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +
We will take the points, but I think Denver is the team that ends the Clippers recent win streak. Los Angeles was at home last night hosting Cleveland, and now they have to play on back-to-back nights by traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets in mile high altitude. The Nuggets have been playing well recently, winning two of their last three games all on the road. Now they get a day of rest and will be playing from the comfort of their home court.
The Clippers recent run can be credited to tough defensive play. Even good defensive teams struggle when playing in the mile high altitude of Denver, so I think the Nuggets are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. The team averages 104.5 points per game at home this season. The Nuggets met the Clippers in early February and picked up a win on their home court. I expect another close game between the teams today, with Denver having a chance to win outright in the end.
You should play on home teams like Denver when they average 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers and they are facing an average pressure defense forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games on the season. This system is 119-82 (59%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on teams averaging 103 points per game or more after training in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued and it has resulted in a 143-78 (65%) record against the spread.
|03-17-14||Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4||95-108||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
4* NBA Heavy Hitter of the Week on Brooklyn Nets -
The Suns have won two straight, but they won't make it a third when they face the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Brooklyn has won seven of its last nine games and they are trying to close the gap on Washington and maintain a lead over Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets have a 20-11 home record to protect, and that includes a very profitable 18-13 record against the spread in those games.
The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Toronto on the road last night. The Suns will be playing in their third consecutive road game, and their fifth road game in their last six contests tonight. This is a brutal stretch of schedule that will catch up with the Suns against an underrated Nets team.
You should play against underdogs like Phoenix when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 197-133 (60%) over the last five seasons. When that underdog is a road underdog the system tightens up to 167-108 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-17-14||Atlanta Hawks +3 v. Charlotte Bobcats||97-83||Win||100||8 h 13 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks +
The Atlanta Hawks suffered a poor stretch of games in February and early March, but they have bounced back strong winning three consecutive games coming into this matchup. Charlotte has a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings, so I like the Hawks to play with plenty of motivation tonight.
Charlotte is playing in a very tough spot. They were on the road yesterday against Milwaukee, and now the Bobcats have to play a very talented Atlanta team in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hawks have been on fire recently, averaging 103.2 points per game over their last five games. Against division opponents they are averaging 104.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are averaging a mere 96.7 points per game against the division while surrendering 102 points per game.
You should play against home teams like Charlotte when they are trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system has a 101-51 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against home teams with a line of three points or less when they are off a road win and revenging a loss to their opponent. This system is 91-50 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-16-14||Houston Rockets v. Miami Heat UNDER 209||104-113||Loss||-110||6 h 48 m||Show|
3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Heat UNDER
The total for this game is set far too high. This game is being played at Miami, so I like the Heat to control the pace of this game. Miami's defense has surrendered just 98.8 points per game at home this season while their opponents have an offensive scoring average over 100 points per game.
Both of these teams are struggling on the offensive end of the court over their last five games, at least when compared to their season averages. Houston has scored 103.2 points per game over their last five games which is three points per game below their overall scoring average. They should struggle to match that number today against an underrated defense like Miami's. The Heat are also having trouble scoring points, averaging just 95.2 points per game over their last five games.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team (Houston) is off an upset loss as a road favorite, and they have a winning record on the season and are facing another team with a winning record. This matchup has a 104-61 (63%) record in favor of the under.
|03-16-14||Charlotte Bobcats -6 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||101-92||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -
The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds.
Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season.
You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-16-14||Duke v. Virginia +1.5||63-72||Win||100||4 h 30 m||Show|
3* Main Event on Virginia +
When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers did not play a great game and still managed to stick to within four points against the Blue Devils. Duke may have been lucky to squeak by with a win in that game on their home court, but I do not expect that to be the case today. In this matchup the Cavaliers will face Duke on a neutral court, and they are coming into this game as one of the hottest teams in college basketball.
Virginia has the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense. They have held opponents to a mere 55.1 points per game this season, and they showed us during the regular season that slowing the Blue Devils down will not be something they have a problem with. Virginia is going to need a strong offensive performance to win this game, and I think there is a good chance they get it. The Blue Devils have given up 68.6 points per game when playing away from home this season and if Virginia even comes close to that number they will win this game.
The Cavaliers are 9-0 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games on the season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when facing a team that averages less than 12 turnovers after 15 or more games. While Duke may have a storied history, the Blue Devils have actually been a good team to fade late in the year. Since 1997 the Blue Devils have posted a 47-74 ATS record in March games. I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team today and Virginia picks up a win in the ACC Championship.
|03-15-14||Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Washington Wizards||94-101||Loss||-105||8 h 29 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Brooklyn Nets -
After picking up a road win over Miami in their last outing, the Brooklyn Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now. They have won seven of their last eight games, and have a matching 7-1 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets will face a Wizards team that is starting to cool off after having lost two of their last three games.
The Wizards are not a team that gets a lot of benefit from home court advantage. Statistically they they do not improve on either end of the court, and they have a 16-16 record at home this season. They are playing in a very touch spot after facing the Magic on the road last night, while Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest.
The Nets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Washington is also 2-10 ATS at home against a team that has a losing record on the road. I think the fact that Brooklyn struggled on the road early in the season has only created value on them today, and the Nets pick up a dominating win over the Wizards in this matchup.
|03-15-14||Toledo -2.5 v. Western Michigan||Top||77-98||Loss||-106||8 h 44 m||Show|
5* MAC Tournament Game of the Year on Toledo -
The Toledo Rockets are clearly the better team, and this line does not do them justice. Toledo averages 79.9 points per game this season, and when playing on the road or a neutral court their offensive production has barely slowed down still averaging 77.6 points per game. They are up against a Western Michigan team that is averaging a mere 67.4 points per game on the road.
These teams split there regular season games, but it is Toledo that won in the most recent meeting. The Rockets picked up an 11 point win just over two weeks ago, and a change to a neutral court will not be enough for the Broncos to narrow their margin of loss by enough points to cover this spread. Western Michigan is also coming off an overtime time in their last outing. Playing in a back-to-back is hard enough for college teams, but when the first half of that back-to-back went to overtime I just don't see how the Broncos will be able to physically keep pace with the Rockets.
Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their games on the season. Toledo has been the better ball control team this season averaging just 10 turnovers per game to 14 turnovers per game from the Broncos. Toledo has covered three of their lat four games against the spread, and I like that trend to continue today.
|03-15-14||New Mexico v. San Diego State -1.5||64-58||Loss||-106||7 h 13 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on San Diego State -
These teams met twice during the regular season and split their games. It is San Diego State that won the most recent matchup just one week ago today. I don't see a lot of reason to expect a different outcome in today's game. The Aztecs are the better team, and it will show on the court today.
While they do not get a lot of attention or credit, it is worth noting that San Diego State has the second ranked scoring defense in the country. The Aztecs have surrendered a mere 56.6 points per game this season. That has come against a schedule that has been anything but easy. San Diego State has faced five teams that were ranked at the time of play, and they have a 4-1 record in those games.
This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like New Mexico that average 74 to 78 points per game when they are facing an excellent defense allowing 63 points per game or less on a neutral court and they lead their last three games by five or more points at the half. This matchup identifies teams that are overvalued because of their ability to get off to a quick start. This system has a 64-30 (68%) ATS record. The better team will prevail in the second half, and that team is San Diego State.
|03-15-14||George Washington v. VCU -4||55-74||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on VCU -
The Rams quickly fell out of the top 25 ranking early in the season, but have since earned their way back. I think a lot of people gave up on VCU a little prematurely, and it seems as though the oddsmakers have still not not caught on to just how talented the Rams are this season. VCU has now won five consecutive games coming into this matchup with George Washington, and they were able to get key players a little extra rest time thanks to a dominating win over Richmond in their A-10 Tournament opener.
George Washington picked up a win at home against the Rams back in January, but VCU responded by picking up a 17 point win when the teams met again in February. On a neutral court the advantage has to be with VCU. The team forces an average of 19 turnovers per game, and it is that defense that makes them a dangerous team against anyone in the country. I think George Washington's win early in the season was an anomaly. The Rams are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in head-to-head history with the Colonials.
VCU is 8-2 ATS when coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. They are also 11-3 ATS after three consecutive conference games. That is a very telling statistic about the disparity in talent between the Rams and the remainder of the Atlantic 10 conference. VCU should pick up an easy win in this semifinal matchup over Georgia Washington.
|03-15-14||Arkansas State v. Georgia State -7.5||45-72||Win||100||4 h 14 m||Show|
4* Sun Belt Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia State -
Arkansas State has to be exhausted after their four overtime matchup with Arkansas-Little Rock last night. Now they are tasked with playing a well rested Georgia State team. The Panthers are playing with six days of rest coming into this game. Georgia State is also the hottest team in the conference. They have posted a 17-1 record in conference play this season.
The first thing to go for a tired team is usually its defense. Effort on the defensive end of the court has been an issue for the Red Wolves even when they are not coming off a quadruple overtime game. Arkansas State has surrendered an average of 78.6 points per game when playing away from home this season, and now they are up against a Georgia State offense that has averaged 78.1 points per game on the season.
Arkansas State is a good team to fade when facing a good ball handling team. They are 27-45 ATS against teams committing 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games in the season. Georgia State is 8-0 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games on the season. The Red Wolves will not be able to keep this game close after their grueling game last night so I have Georgia State winning this game in a blowout.
|03-15-14||Pittsburgh v. Virginia -3||48-51||Push||0||3 h 8 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia -
When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers held Pitt to a mere 45 points. That game was played on Pittsburgh's home court, so I can only imagine what Virginia will be able to accomplish in this neutral court rematch. Virginia is the hottest team in college basketball right now, and I expect the Panthers to struggle against the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense.
The Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 55.4 points per game this season. While they have been spectacular on defense, the team is also playing well offensively. Their 66.2 points per game may not rank among the best in basketball, but the schedule has been anything but easy with opponents averaging just 66.7 points surrendered. This will be Pittsburgh's third game in three days and I think the wear and tear of consecutive back-to-back games will be too much for the Panthers to handle against a top tier team like Virginia.
The oddsmakers have undervalued Virginia for most of the season. The Cavaliers have a respectable 18-10 record against the spread. They are 9-0 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games, and they are 8-0 ATS against teams making over 45 percent of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. Pitt has not performed well in games that are expected to be defensive battles. The Panthers are 6-15 ATS when the total opens between 120 to 129.5 points over the last two seasons.
|03-14-14||Ole Miss v. Georgia||Top||73-75||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia -
Ole Miss had to use a lot of energy rallying from an early 13-point deficit to beat in-state rival Mississippi State. I don't see the Rebels and those tired legs being able to hang with a talented and underrated Georgia team tonight. The Bulldogs are fresh off a full 5 days rest and will be out to make a statement. Georgia tied for 2nd in the SEC with a 12-6 record, yet are not even being talked about as an NCAA Tournament team.
While Ole Miss comes in off back-to-back wins, they have not been playing all that great of late. They are just 5-7 since the start of February and four of those five losses came against teams who finished the year with a losing record. Georgia on the other hand is playing some of their best basketball. The Bulldogs are 8-2 over their last 10 games with the only two losses coming on the road against Tennessee and Arkansas.
Georgia has been a covering machine. The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games overall. Ole Miss is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record.
|03-14-14||Northwestern v. Michigan State -13||Top||51-67||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State -
Northwestern is coming off a surprising win over Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, but the magic stops here. The Wildcats put everything they had on the line in that game and I just don't see them having enough left in the tank to keep it close against a Michigan State team that is back to full strength and ready to prove they are the best team in the Big 10. Northwestern basically played just six players last night against the Hawkeyes, as Nikola Cerina played just 2 minutes.
Even without their full lineup, Michigan State was able to beat the Wildcats rather easily in both regular season meetings. The Spartans won by 14-points at Northwestern and 15-points at home. With a healthy lineup and tired legs for the Wildcats, I could see this turning into a 20+ point blowout rather quickly.
While Michigan State lost their final game of the regular season 67-69 at Ohio State, that sets up a very favorable system for the Spartans. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have a winning record, are off a road cover where they lost outright and playing a team with a losing record are 65-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of a Spartan cover!
|03-14-14||Washington Wizards -5 v. Orlando Magic||105-101||Loss||-105||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -
The Wizards are playing in a great spot to snap their two game losing streak and pick up a big win over the Magic. Orlando has lost four consecutive games, and even with Washington's losses in their last two games the Wizards have still won eight of their last 11 games. Orlando has been horrible against the division this season posting a 3-9 record and allowing 105 points per game. They are -6.4 points per game in scoring differential when facing a division opponent.
Washington's explosive offense should have no problem scoring on Orlando today. The Magic have surrendered 102.2 points per game overall, and 105.6 points per game over their last five games. Orlando has had a lot of trouble scoring points this season. They average 97 points per game overall, but I think they will struggle to match that number tonight. Washington has held division opponents to 96.5 points per game this season and Orlando is one of the worst teams in the division.
You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more and they are coming off a home loss. This system is 90-47 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Washington against a division opponent when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against another division opponent. This system is 72-38 (66%) against the spread.
|03-14-14||LSU v. Kentucky -4.5||67-85||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
4* SEC No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -
The Wildcats are the better team and they should have no problem picking up a win over LSU today. The Tigers are playing in a very tough spot after playing against Alabama yesterday in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Playing in a back-to-back situation is hard enough on its own, but to have to face a top tier team like the Wildcats in the second half of that back-to-back will prove to be too much for LSU.
These teams split their games during the regular season, but Kentucky picked up a win in the most recent meeting. Kentucky is one of the top rebounding teams in the country, and I think this tired LSU team will be at a big disadvantage against the nation's fifth ranked team in rebounds per game. LSU finished the regular season losing five of its final eight games. They benefited from an easy matchup with Alabama in the opening round of the tournament, but they won't be as lucky today against the Wildcats.
|03-14-14||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Arkansas State -4.5||114-116||Loss||-110||8 h 13 m||Show|
3* Bailout on Arkansas State -
This line is not an accurate reflection of the disparity in talent between these teams. Arkansas State posted an 18-12 overall record, while Arkansas-Little Rock comes into this game with a losing record of 15-16 overall. The Red Wolves also finished higher in Sun Belt standings. When these teams met in January the Red Wolves picked up a 28 points win. They may have lost on the road against the Trojans, but that was a close game and on a neutral court Arkansas State should have no problem picking up another dominating win.
The Red Wolves offense averages 75.7 points per game. When playing away from home that number only dips slightly down to 74.4 points per game. Arkansas-Little Rock on the other hand averages just 70.1 points per game overall. The Trojans see their offensive production take a big hit on the road dropping down to 67.5 points per game. Arkansas State also has a defensive advantage holding opponents to 70.4 points per game to 72.7 points allowed by the Trojans.