5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Georgia State -

Georgia State is one of the better kept secrets in college basketball. Last year the Panthers went 25-9 on their way to a Sun Belt regular season title. Georgia State gets back the nucleus from last year and are absolutely loaded in the backcourt with R.J. Hunter (2013 Sun Belt Player of the Year), senior point guard Ryan Harrow (1st Team All Sun Belt) and Kevin Ware (Louisville transfer). The Panthers should have their way against an Oakland team that has started out just 1-4 with their only win coming against Chicago State.

Georgia State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Oakland is just 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 3-13 in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.

There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 74-39 ATS in the month of November since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Georgia State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Miami (OH) +

The RedHawks are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Both of these teams look to slow the game down and win with their defense, which makes a 8.5-point spread a lot for the likes of Northwestern to cover.

The Wildcats lost their star guard in Drew Crawford, who averaged 15.7 of their 59.5 points per game. Without Crawford to rely on offensively, Northwestern just doesn't have the fire-power to blow teams out. That's evident by their less than impressive wins to start the year against Houston Baptist, Brown, North Florida and Elon. While they won all 4, their largest win came by 7-points. Miami (OH) isn't a great team but they are the best the Wildcats have faced so far.

Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games of a win by 6-points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 2 or more consecutive victories. Wildcats are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system in favor of the RedHawks. Take Miami (OH)!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

I cashed in on the Cyclones -6 last night against Alabama and I look for Iowa State to cruise to another double-digit win over Maryland. The game will once again be played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, which is the site of the Big 12 Tournament and considered by many Cyclone fans to be Hilton South. Not only does Iowa State have a minor homecourt edge, but they are the better team. Fred Hoiberg has the Cyclones loaded with talent and are poised to contend for a Big 12 title this season. Maryland is no longer a basketball powerhouse and this past offseason 5 players transferred to play elsewhere. The Terrapins have lost 24 of their last 29 games against ranked opponents and haven't beat a ranked opponent on a neutral court since 2008.

Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site and 8-1 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

5* Non-Conference No Limit Game of the Year on Penn State -

The Nittany Lions are being undervalued by the books after failing to cover the spread in 3 straight, which included a couple of less than impressive wins over Cornell (72-71) and USC (63-61). With Akron missing their top returning scorer and rebounder in Demetrius Treadwell (15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the Zips are not equipped to go on the road and keep it close enough to cover against Penn State. The Nittany Lions got back a ton of talent from last year's team, including one of the top Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill. He will easily be the best player on the floor tonight and that's a big reason why I'm siding with Penn State at home.

Akron is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, while Penn State is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 versus poor rebounding teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Zips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. These trends combine to form a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Seton Hall -

The Pirates are showing great value here as a mere 3-point favorite against Illinois State. While the Red Birds have won rather easily in their first two games of the Paradise Jam with victories over the likes of Weber State (73-64) and Old Dominion (64-45), but neither of those are real impressive wins. What stands out to me is that this team lost at home to Utah State in their opener. Utah State isn't anywhere close to a tournament team, as they lost all 5 starters and a couple key contributors off the bench. Seton Hall is a program on the rise aren't quite there yet and as a result are showing value against inferior competition.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-0 in their last 8 road games when listed as the favorite. Adding to this is that Illinois State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring the spread in 2 out of their last 3. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

While both of these teams come in undefeated, Iowa State is the much more talented team in my open. The Cyclones are talented enough to contend with Kansas and Texas for the Big 12 title, while Alabama will be a middle of the pack team in the weak SEC. One of the hidden keys here is that while this game is being played on a neutral court at the Sprint Center in Missouri, this is a short trip for Iowa State fans and I'm expecting them to heavily out-number the Razorbacks faithful. Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive playmakers to keep up with the Cyclones. While they get back 4 starters, they lose All-SEC guard Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand has a great nucleus of talent coming back and are one of the deepest teams in the country.

Iowa State has had plenty of time to rest up for this one and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. Cyclones are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Suns +

The Suns are showing excellent value here as a 5-point road dog against the Raptors. Phoenix comes in having won 4 straight on the road and have dominated when visiting arenas from the East. The Suns have won 12 of their last 13 non-conference road games, including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Adding to this is that have have had a lot of success at the Raptors Air Canada Centre, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 visits to Toronto.

Adding even more value here is the fact that the Suns are catching the Raptors in a great spot. Toronto is coming off a huge 110-93 road win against LeBron James and the Cavs on Saturday, which saw them rally from an early 18-point deficit. I look for them to struggle to bring that same intensity to the floor against the Suns. I really like Phoenix to win this game outright, which makes it that much more sweet that we are getting 5-points.

There's also a great system in play. Underdogs who have won 60%-75% of their games are 53-36 ATS in the month of November over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Michigan State -

The Spartans rebounded from that poor showing against Duke with a 87-52 win over Loyola-Illinois and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy home win against Santa Clara. Michigan State has a young team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see them struggle at Navy and against the Blue Devils in Indianapolis. The Broncos went just 14-19 last year and are simply not a well coached team. They are completely outmatched from a talent aspect and will have a difficult time just keeping it within 25 points. Keep in mind Santa Clara just lost 54-60 at Utah State, who lost all 5 starters from 2013-14.

Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pressure teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Adding to this is that the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

3* NBA Late Night Bailout on Nuggets -

The Nuggets are showing some great value here as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Lakers. Even though Byron Scott is preaching defense, LA is not listening. The Lakers come in allowing 112.5 ppg and just allowed 140 in their last contest against the Mavericks. Denver comes in playing their best basketball of the early season. The Nuggets have won 3 straight and during this stretch are averaging 110.0 ppg. LA has had a horrible time slowing down Denver's offensive attack. The Nuggets have won six straight in the series and are averaging an impressive 123.2 ppg during this streak. Denver simply has too much offense for LA to keep it close.

Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have gone over the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games who are winning just 40% to 49% of their games are 31-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

The Bulldogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year because of a poor showing early in non-conference play. Georgia knows they have to take care of business in these games and I expect them to do just that against Florida Atlantic. The Owls plummeted to 10-22 last year and while they get back 4 starters, they lose their senior captain in Pablo Bertone, who led C-USA in scoring at 19.0 ppg. FAU has already lost on the road to Elon 58-64 and Harvard 49-71.

Favorites of 10 or more points off a home blowout win by 20+ who have won 60% to 80% of their games against an opponent that has won 20% to 40% are 66-32 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Knicks -

The only real hope for the 76ers keeping a game competitive right now is if the opposing team overlooks them. I don't see that being the case here with the Knicks. New York has dropped 9 of their last 10 after a 2-1 start to the season that included a win over the Cavaliers. As bad as the Knicks have been playing, they are still way better than what Philadelphia is putting out on the floor.

There's also a solid system in play on the Knicks. Favorites who are allowing 98-102 ppg against a horrible defensive team that is allowing 102+ ppg after a contest where they allowed 60 or more in the first half are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -

The Buffaloes are one of the teams that I think could surprise and win the Pac-12 title over Arizona. The only player Colorado lost from last year's 23-12 team was Spencer Dinwiddie, who missed a lot of last year with an injury. The Buffaloes' have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Drexel 65-48 as a 14-point favorite and Auburn 90-59 as a 11.5-point favorite. Now we find them laying just 1.5-points on the road against Wyoming, who hasn't looked great in home wins over Northern Colorado (78-70) and Western State (61-46). The Buffaloes simply aren't getting the respect they deserve, as this should be a team that's ranked in the Top 25.

There's a nice system in play on Colorado. Road favorites off a cover as a double-digit favorite in the month of November are 74-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

3* NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Davidson +

The books are giving North Carolina a little too much respect off a couple of easy home games against NC Central and Robert Morris. Davidson gave the Tar Heels all they could handle last year in Chapel Hill before eventually losing 85-97 in overtime. This time the game will be played on a neutral court at Charlotte's Time Warner Cable Arena. I look for the Wildcats to give North Carolina another big scare and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the big upset against their in-state rival.

Davidson is 81-57 ATS in their last 138 games when playing against a team with a winning record, while North Carolina is 24-42 ATS in their last 66 off 2 or more consecutive home wins and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after a combined score of 155 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 61% (132-83) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Davidson!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wake Forest -

The Demon Deacons were destroyed in their last game, losing by 30-points at Arkansas on Wednesday. I believe that has created some exceptional value on the Demon Deacons in their home matchup against Iona. Prior to that loss Wake Forest had a couple of impressive wins over UNC-Asheville (80-69) and Tulane (71-49). Iona on the other hand was just lost at Wofford by 13-points in their last contest. Wake Forest has won 15 of their last 19 home games, which is a big reason why I'm not reading too much into that ugly road loss to Arkansas. I have a lot of confidence in 2nd-year head coach Danny Manning and his ability to get this program back on track. Either way, the Demon Deacons are greatly undervalued in this one and should win here comfortably.

Wake Forest is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 20 points, while the Gaels are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. These two trends combine to form a 76% (26-8) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points.

Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter.

The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes are favored for good reason against the Orange. While both teams are coming off double-digit losses in the first round of the 2K Classic, I was a lot more impressed with the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a lead early against Texas but had one of their worst offensive showings they will likely have all season. The Hawkeyes made just 29.6%. Syracuse was dominated right from the start by Cal and this is simply not the same caliber an Orange team as previous years. They lost C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant from last year's team and are counting on freshman Kaleb Joseph to run the all-important point guard spot in Syracuse's system. Joseph should eventually evolve into a big time player, but the Orange figure to struggle early against experienced teams like the Hawkeyes.

Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, playing in a game with two teams who have a winning record are 23-5 ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 82% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Seton Hall -

Seton Hall should have no problem covering this single-digit spread against the Wolf Pack. While the Pirates lost 3 starters from last year, I believe this year's team is better than the one that finished 17-17. They get back an experienced point guard in junior Sterling Gibbs and are expecting big things out of McDonald's All-American shooting guard Isaiah Whitehead. The big key here is that Nevada is in a major rebuilding phase and simply don't have the offensive fire-power to compete with a team like Seton Hall. The Wolf Pack lost their star in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg), along with their next two top scorers in Cole Huff (12.4 ppg) and Jerry Evans Jr. (12.3 ppg). Combined that's 44.8 points they have to replace, which is over half of the 72.4 ppg they averaged in 2013-14.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing their last game at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. These trends combine to form a 83% (20-4) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Gardner-Webb +

Clemson shouldn't be laying this big of a number against a quality opponent like Gardner-Webb. While the Tigers have 4 starters back from last year, they lost their star in K.J. McDaniels, who averaged 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while also earned ACC Defensive Player of the year. Clemson simply doesn't have anyone to replace his productivity and that was evident in their last game, which they lost 74-77 to Winthrop (wasn't even a line available on that game). Garner-Webb showed they can hang with the big boys in a competitive loss at LSU in their opener and bounced back with a 80-67 win over a College of Charleston, who just gave UConn a run last night. I look for this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bulldogs won this one outright.

Gardner-Webb is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after covering last time out, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 8-1 in their last 9 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 82% (32-7) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Garner-Webb!

4* Syracuse/Cal ESPN2 Heavy Hitter on Syracuse -

Syracuse is showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against the Golden Bears. The Orange have been nearly unbeatable when it comes to non-conference regular season games. In fact, they are 67-1 since the 2009-10 campaign. These two teams played last year in Maui and Syracuse won 92-81. I'm expecting a similar margin of victory, though I don't expect it to be quite as high-scoring. The Orange once again look to have an elite defense under jim Boeheim and I think a big reason they are showing such great value is people assume this high-flying Cal offense is going to give them trouble. Despite it being early in the season, both teams have played Kennesaw St. The Orange won 89-42 (+57), while Cal beat them 93-59 (+34). I'll take the better defense and the more talented team to win here by at least 6 points. Take Syracuse!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Maryland -

Maryland should have no problem blowing out Fordham and bringing home an easy cover. The Rams went just 10-21 last year and lost one of their best players in guard Brandon Frazier, who averaged 18.2 ppg. Fordham just lost to Penn State 54-73, which is a great sign that they are not ready to compete with the likes of the Terrapins. Maryland is a team on the rise under Mark Turgeon, who just landed one of the nations top recruiting classes (4 top 10 freshman) along with Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. The Terps have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Wagner 82-48 and Central Connecticut 93-57. Take Maryland!

3* NCAAB Main Event on Texas -

You might think Iowa has the size and depth to match the length and athleticism of Texas, but their big guys don't have the muscle to keep the Longhorns from imposing their will inside. Texas has everyone back from last year, plus they added one of the top recruits in the country in Myles Turner. Iowa may keep this close early, but look for the Longhorns to take over in the 2nd half and win here comfortably. Take Texas!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Michigan -

Most are expecting Michigan to take a big step back after losing the likes of Nick Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford from last year's team, but head coach Jon Beilein has done a tremendous job of recruiting. There's more than enough talent here for Michigan to beat Detroit by at least 20 points tonight. The Titans are a solid team and should end up contending for the Horizon title, but are simply outmatched in this one. Take Michigan!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Penn State -

The books have made a mistake by listing the Nittany Lions as such a small favorite against Charlotte. While Penn State lost one of their top players from last year in Tim Frazier, they bring back one of the elite Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill, who averaged 17.8 ppg last year. This is now the 3rd year under head coach Patrick Chambers and I look for the Penn State to be a more competitive team than they were a year ago. Charlotte gets back 4 starters, but lot a key part of their team in point guard Denzel Ingram, who transferred. Look for Newbill and the Nittany Lions to gain control early and win here by at least 4-points easily. Take Penn State! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird Main Event on Charleston +

This is more of a play against Connecticut, as the Huskies are going to be overvalued early after winning it all last year. The big key here is that UConn lost a lot of talent from that squad, most notably Shabazz Napier. They also lost forward DeAndre Daniels (13.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg), 3-pt specialist Niels Giffey (54% 3pt FG pct) and Lasan Kromah (6.1 ppg). While they get back Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah, they simply aren't going to be as dominant as they were last season. While the Cougars went just 14-18 last year, big improvements are expected in the 3rd season under head coach Doug Wojcik and I just don't see the Huskies giving them the type of respect needed to win here by more than 14 points. Take Charleston!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nuggets -

The Nuggets come into this game riding a wave of momentum. Denver followed up a 6-game losing streak by winning 2 of 3 on the road, including Monday's impressive 106-97 victory at Cleveland. I look for them to carry over that strong play in a revenge spot against the Thunder. The Nuggets lost 92-102 at Oklahoma City back on Nov. 1. However, this time the Thunder will be missing both Perry Jones and Andre Roberson, who combined for 28 points in that earlier matchup.

This is also a difficult spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been playing short-handed all season due to injuries and find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back road set, following last night's 81-98 loss at Utah. Both Denver and Utah are difficult places for opposing teams to play because of the thin air. I look for Oklahoma City to run out of gas early in this one, which should allow the Nuggets to win here by double-digits rather easily.

Oklahoma City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and a mere 1-3 ATS this season when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Denver!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year on Wisconsin -

The Badgers should have no problem taking down one of their in-state foes in Wisconsin-Green Bay. While the Phoenix put a scare into Wisconsin last year on their home floor, losing by a final of just 66-69, that's a positive going into this matchup. The Badgers aren't going to look past Green Bay, especially on their home floor. Wisconsin-Green Bay still has talented guard Keifer Sykes, who put in 32 last year against the Badgers, but the Phoenix don't have much of a supporting cast around him. Look for Bo Ryan and his staff to have a much better gameplan for Sykes this time around, which should have them winning here by 20+ points rather easily. It's also worth noting Wisconsin is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games, which includes a 13-4 record of the last two seasons.

There's a strong system in play as well. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, in a matchup of a major division 1 conference team against a mid-major conference team are 137-75 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Arkansas -

I look for Arkansas to have no problem making easy work of the Demon Deacons. The Razorbacks come into the 2014-15 campaign highly motivated off after feeling like they got snubbed out of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has 3 starters back and with some big time recruits added in the offseason, look to be even better in than last year. Wake Forest is headed in the right direction under new head coach Danny Manning, but are not built to win this season. The Demon Deacons lost their 4 best players from last year's 17-16 squad. Take Arkansas!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Arizona -

While the Wildcats lost two of their top players from last year in Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson, head coach Sean Miller has restocked the cupboard with another great recruiting class and most agree that this year's team is the best he's had in what will be his 6th year at Arizona. The Wildcats have cruised in each of their first two games with a 23-point win over Mt. St. Mary's and 20-point victory against CS Northridge. I'm expecting more of the same against UC Irvine. The Anteaters are a quality team but are simply no where close in terms of talent to the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

3* Creighton/Oklahoma NCAAB Main Event on Oklahoma -

The Blue Jays are getting way too much respect at home against the Sooners, largely due to the fact that Creighton has won 47 straight home games prior to Nov. 26. The big key here is that the Blue Jays are in a major rebuilding phase in 2014. Creighton lost 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Oklahoma on the other hand has 4 starters back from last year's team that went 23-10 (12-6 Big 12) and have added in big talent in Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who averaged 16.2 points and 8.9 rebounds over 66 games the last two years with the Cougars. Simply put the Sooners are the far superior team and should have no problem winning here by at least 6 points. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is a great spot to back the Clippers as a small road favorite against the Magic. Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Clippers also come into this game of a poor showing at home in a 89-105 loss to the Bulls. LA is a perfect 3-0 off a loss this season and haven't lost back-to-back games in the regular season since last February. Adding to this is the fact that the Clippers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a loss.

A big reason why the Clippers aren't a bigger favorite here is the Magic have gained the attention of the public. Orlando is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. I'm confident that streak will come to an end tonight. Los Angeles is the far superior team and the key here is that they won't be overlooking the Magic. Orlando has also had their troubles against the West. They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 versus the Western Conference and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against the Pacific Division.

There's also a strong system in play telling us to face the Magic. Home underdogs who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 28-57 ATS in non-conference games over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

3* Spurs/Cavaliers NBA Main Event on Cavaliers -

The Spurs may have had their way with LeBron James and the Miami Heat in last year's Finals, but James has a better supporting cast in Cleveland and I look for him to treat this game a little different than the rest. I'm also expecting the rest of the Cavaliers players to rally behind James and come out and lay it all on the line, as they look to send a message to the defending champs. San Antonio isn't going to back down, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is the Cavaliers.

Cleveland had a minor hiccup last time out in a 97-106 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. I believe a lot of that to do with them looking ahead to this contest. Prior to that loss, the Cavaliers had won 4 straight where they averaged an impressive 119.3 ppg. The Spurs have scored 100 or more in just 3 games all season and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with the Cavaliers on the road.

Cleveland is 2-1 ATS following a SU loss and 3-1 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record and 0-2 ATS this season off a home win. These trends combine to form a 79% (11-3) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against Miami (OH). Evansville went just 14-19 last year, but were in the process of a major rebuilding phase, as they had the 4th youngest team in the nation. This year they get all 5 starters back, almost all their top reserves and added in Villanova transfer Mislav Brzoja. The Red Hawks finished with a similar record of 13-18, but lost All-MAC forward Will Felder and 4-year point guard Quinten Rollins. Adding to all of this is the fact that the Purple Aces beat Miami (OH) 78-65 last year at home. They should have no problem winning by at least 6 on the road. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on BYU -

The Cougars should have no problem knocking off Arkansas-Little Rock by at least 17 points. BYU has one of the best back-court duo's in the nation in junior Kyle Collinsworth and senior Tyler Haws (2013-14 WCC Player of the Year). The Cougars are also an experienced unit as a whole with 5 seniors returning from a team that made the NCAA Tournament and are excited about the addition of Wake Forest transfer Chase Fischer, who is a 3-point specialists (17 points, 4-8 3-pts in season opener). Arkansas-Little Rock went just 15-17 last year. While they get back 10 of the 12 players who averaged at least 10 minutes/game, they lose their best player in Will Neighbour, who average 16.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg. The Trojans were less than impressive in a 77-64 win over Arkansas Monticello in their opener and will simply not be able to keep pace with the Cougars in this one. Take BYU!

3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg.

The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg.

It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home.

UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on CS Sacramento +

Sacramento State is showing some solid value here after a blowout loss at Gonzaga (58-104) in their opener, while UC Riverside opened with a 75-52 blowout win at home over Cal San Diego. Just looking at those outcomes might lead you to believe the Highlanders are the play at home laying just 2.5-poings, but the Hornets are the more talented team. Look for Sacramento State senior guards Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney to be the two best players on the floor tonight.

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. UC Riverside on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Sacramento State!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Hornets +

The Mavericks are coming into this contest overvalued due to their two blowout wins at home over the 76ers (123-70) and Timberwolves (131-117). Dallas is the not same offensive juggernaut on the road as they are at home and I look for them to struggle against what should be a highly motivated Charlotte team that is coming off an ugly 87-112 loss at Golden State.

The Bobcats went just 1-3 on their recent 4-game West Coast trip, which is also playing into this inflated line. Charlotte is 3-1 at home this season with the only loss coming 69-71 to Memphis. Defensively, the Bobcats have been a completely different team at home. Charlotte is only giving up 96.2 ppg on 42.7% shooting at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats have won each of the last two in the series at home, including a 114-89 victory in the most recent meeting, which just so happened to see Charlotte listed as a 4-point underdog.

The Bobcats have been a great team to back off a loss. Charlotte is 31-15 ATS over the last 2 seasons following a defeat. They are also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss of more than 10 points and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (52-23) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Charlotte!

3* Rockets/Thunder NBA Main Event on Rockets - 

This is a great spot to back the Rockets as a small road favorite against the Thunder. Houston was nearly upset last time out by the 76ers as a 16.5-point favorite, which I believe is a big reason they are showing value today against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have continued to play hard even with all the injuries, but they are no match for a motivated Houston squad.  

Houston is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after playing their previous game against the Eastern Conference and 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game are 187-119 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* on Kentucky -30.5

I expect this Kentucky freight train to keep rolling against an under-sized and over-matched Buffalo team.  While this is an exceptional amount of points to cover, the Wildcats are still a young team and Calipari is not going to call off the dogs early - he's going to get his guys as many reps as possible.  He did just that in Friday night's game against Grand Canyon, which had an almost identical spread, with Kentucky rolling to a 40-point victory.  This really might be an even better matchup for this crew.  Take the Wildcats in a romp.

4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is a great spot to back the Clippers at home, who is going to be highly motivated to come out strong after losing 85-89 at home to the Spurs last time out. LA has had a full 4-days of rest to regroup and get this thing turned around after their less than impressive 4-3 start. While the Clippers are as rested as they will be all season, Phoenix finds themselves in a tough scheduling spot. The Suns will be on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 off an upset loss as a favorite. There's also a nice system in play on the Clippers. Teams who have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a winning team are 71-38 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Bowling Green +

The Falcons are showing a lot of value here as a 3.5-point underdog. Drake lost 3 starters from last year and are extremely thin up front. Not to mention they will be without the services of junior guard Gary Ricks Jr, who is their top returning scorer, and backup guard Karl Madison, as both are suspended for the first 3 games. Bowling Green on the other hand has 4 starters coming back and a new sense of energy and excitement around the program with the addition of head coach Chris Jans, who was a top assistant under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Falcons to win this one outright. Take Bowling Green!

4* NBA Big Chalk Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Spurs have returned to form after a sluggish start. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back impressive road wins over the Clippers (89-85) and Warriors (113-100) and should have no problem disposing of the Lakers to make it 3 in row. It's no secret that the Spurs have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league under Poppovich and I look for them to exploit a Lakers defense that is giving up 111.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 49.8% from the field and 40.2% from long distance. In the Spurs last 167 games played against bad teams who are being outscored by 6+ points/game, they have won by an average of 11.1 ppg.

The Lakers have shown some life of late, which has resulted in them covering the spread in three straight games. I believe that has this line lower than what it should be. Keep in mind LA is just 5-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. San Antonio on the other hand is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 off a road win by 10 or more points.

There's also a strong system in play telling us to fade the Lakers. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road game where they covered the spread as an underdog but lost outright are 38-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NCAAB Opening Night Game of the Year on Rice +

This is a big time fade of Oregon State. The Beavers went a respectable 16-16 (8-10 Pac-12), but with all five starters gone, including their star Roberto Nelson (20.7 ppg) this team is going to struggle. Their leading returning scorer is sophomore Langston-Morris Walker, who averaged a mere 4.0 ppg. Rice went a miserable 7-23 last year, but I'm expecting a big turnaround for the Owls under new head coach Mike Rhoades, who was one of Shaka Smart's top assistants at VCU. Rice at least has some experience to fall back on with 3 starters and a lot is expected out of freshman Bishop Mercy, who is a perfect fit for Rhoades system. I believe there's a good chance the Owls win this game outright. Take Rice!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Valparaiso -

Valparaiso will be out for revenge against East Tennessee State tonight, as the Crusaders lost 62-73 on the road to the Bucs. Valparaiso was in a major rebuilding phase last year, as they had three freshmen starters. One of those was All-Horizon forward Alec Peters, who led all Horizon freshmen in every category expect steals and assists. Peters is one of 4 starters back on a Crusaders team that should take a big step forward in the 4th year under head coach Bryce Drew. As for East Tennessee State, they return three starters, but lost their two big men inside. Having to rely on the outside shot on the road is bad recipe for success. Look for the Crusaders to win here by double-digits easily. Take Valparaiso!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Citadel +

The Citadel is showing great value here in the opening round of the All Military Classic at Christl Arena in West Point. These two military schools are very familiar with one another, having played early in the season each of the last 3 years. VMI won last year's meeting 82-71 on their home floor, but the Citadel won 84-76 at home in 2012. This time the game will be played on a neutral setting and I like the Bulldogs chances of revenge. VMI lost two of their best players from last year in starting center D.J. Covington (20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and guard Rodney Glasgow (18.9 ppg, 5.8 apg), while the Bulldogs return 4 of their 5 starters. Take the Citadel!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on 76ers +

This is a great spot to jump on the 76ers as a big dog against the Mavericks. Philadelphia is clearly getting no respect after their 0-7 start, but they haven't been at full strength. Starting point guard and reigning Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, is set to make his season debut and they also will be getting back Nerlens Noel after he missed the last two. These are arguably the 76ers two best players. Carter-Williams is a difference maker for this team and I believe his return is going to install some confidence in the rest of the players.

With that said, Dallas is clearly the better team here. However, the Mavericks have lacked focus at times and I just don't see them being all that excited about playing the worst team in the league. Keep in mind that the Mavericks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.

Dallas also hasn't been a great defensive team early on, which I believe will allow the 76ers to hang around and get the cover. The Mavericks are giving up 101.6 ppg and allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.9% from the field and 39.9% from long-distance.

We also see a nice system in play on the 76ers. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 5 or more straight games that are well rested (4 or less games in 10 days) are 59-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Knicks -

This is a great spot to back the Knicks at home, who are showing big time value due to their 5-game losing streak. We can expect to see max effort tonight from New York and that should be more than enough to win here by at least 7 points against a bad Orlando squad that is still without one of their top players in Victor Oladipo.

The Magic also find themselves in a bad scheduling spot. Orlando played in a high-scoring game last night in Toronto and also played on the road Sunday at Brooklyn. That puts them in a brutal scenario where they are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but their 3rd road game in 4 days overall. The effort simply won't be there tonight. It's also worth noting that 5 of the Magic's 6 losses this season have come by at least 7-points.

I also think we are catching a favorable line here due to the Magic only losing by 4-points on the road against a quality Raptors team last night. However, this is the time you want to fade Orlando. The Magic are just 9-27 (25%) ATS over the last 3 seasons off a loss by 6-points or less. Orlando is also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set between 190 and 194.5 points and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after their starters combined to play more than 160 minutes the previous day. These trends combine to form a 76% (59-19) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

There's no question that the Raptors are playing like one of the top teams in the East to start the season, but I think the line here has been inflated due to their recent blowouts against the Wizards and 76eres. While Toronto has already went on the road and beat the Magic 108-95, that should serve as motivation for Orlando and make it difficult for the Raptors to take this game as seriously as they should. Toronto also has a huge home game on deck against the Bulls Thursday, which is part of the TNT double-header. Knowing that Chicago is considered one of the elite teams in the East, it's going to be difficult for the Raptors to not look ahead to that contest.

There's a nice system backing a play on the Magic as well. Underdogs of 10 or more points off back-to-back games that finished OVER the total, who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a average defensive team (92-98 ppg) are 41-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers -

The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98.

Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2).

While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points.

There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA Non-Conference ATS No Brainer on Lakers +

This is a great spot to take the Lakers as a home underdog against the Hornets. LA has had a full 4 days off since their last game. Look for the Lakers to give their best effort of the season as they are highly motivated for their first win of the season.

The Lakers aren't a playoff team, but their slow start has been a direct result of a brutal schedule that has had them play four of the top teams in the Western Conference in the Rockets, Suns (2x), Clippers and Warriors. Charlotte is not on the same level as any of those teams. The Hornets are 3-3 on the season, but 0-2 on the road. They lost by 9-points at New Orleans and by 3-points at New York. If the Knicks can beat Charlotte at home, so can the Lakers. It's also worth noting that this will be the Hornets 4th game in 6 days, which will make it that much harder for them to match the Lakers intensity in this one.

There's a nice system in play. Teams off a home loss against a division rival (Lakers) are 31-8 ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Lakers! Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Clippers -

It's been a less than impressive start for the Clippers, who come in just 3-2 after their first 5 games. They barely scraped by with wins at home against both the Thunder and Jazz and only won by 7 on the road against the Lakers. In their last game they were embarrassed at Golden State 104-121 in a nationally televised game.

I believe that combined with their lackluster start has the Clippers showing incredible value as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Trail Blazers. Portland is a quality team, but are just 3-2 with 4 of their first 5 coming at home. They lost their lone road game 94-103 at Sacramento and I'm expecting them to lose by double-digits in this spot.

The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings and all 3 of the Clippers wins at home in this stretch have come by at least 5 points. Adding to this is the fact that LA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

There's a big time system in favor of the Clippers based on how they have started the season. Teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and are averaging 48 or less rebounds/game are a dominant 22-4 ATS since 1996. That's a 85% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers -

I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets.

Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down.

Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers!

3* Mavericks/Trail Blazers TNT Late Night Bailout on Trail Blazers -

The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Portland has one of the best homecourt advantages in the league and will be coming into this game extremely confident off that 19-point blowout win at home over the Cavaliers on Tuesday. Portland lost just 10 games all of last season at home, making them a must play here as a mere 2-point favorite.

Dallas has got off to an impressive start offensively, as they connected on 52.4% of their attempts through their first 4 games. Sustaining that offense won't be easy on the road, especially against a quality defensive team like Portland. The Trail Blazers are holding opponents to just 40.6% shooting through their first 4 games and come in ranked 6th in defensive efficiency.

It's also worth noting that the Mavericks are giving up 102.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field on the road. The Trail Blazers have one of the more explosive offenses in the league and should only get better now that Damian Lillard looks to be back to 100% after struggling in his first 3 games battling an abdominal strain. Take Portland!

3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Nuggets +

Denver is showing great value here as an underdog against the Kings. The Nuggets are in a huge revenge spot, as this is a rematch of Monday's game in Denver. The Kings won that game 110-105. When two teams face off in back-to-back games, the loser of the first matchup is clearly going to be the more motivated squad in the second meeting. Sitting at 3-1 with wins over the Trail Blazers and Clippers prior to their win against the Nuggets, this is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, especially when you factor in that it's their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Kings are just 7-19 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games off 1 or more consecutive wins and only 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is that Denver is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss.

There's also a key system in play telling us to fade the Kings. Home favorites off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are just 25-58 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Wizards +

The Knicks come into this game off back-to-back impressive wins. They went on the road and beat Cleveland 95-90 and were able to hold on for a 96-93 win at home against Charlotte. Yet they are just a 1.5-point home favorite. The books have made it pretty clear that they don't trust this team, and neither do I right now. New York lacks depth and talent and are still playing without starting point guard Jose Calderon and key reserve Andrea Bargnani.

Washington is hands down the better team and I look for them to have their way with the Knicks, similar to what we saw in New York's opening loss to Chicago, where they trailed by 30 points. It's also worth noting that the Knicks have barely won each of their last two games, while shooting over 50% from the field. That's not a good sign of things to come, as they rely on too many jump shots to continue to hit at that high of a rate.

Washington is 30-18 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as an underdog and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less points.

There's a strong system in play suggesting just that. Home teams who have made 50% or more of their attempts in 2 straight games that are shooting 45.5% - 47.5% on the season against an opponent that is allowing opponents to shoot 45.5% - 47.5% are just 57-100 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Celtics/Mavericks NBA Main Event on Celtics +

The Celtics are showing great value here getting 9.5 points against the Mavericks. While Boston lost 90-104 at Houston in their last contest, they had an awful night shooting. The Celtics were just 37.8% from the field and a mere 1-25 (4.0%) from behind the 3-point line. To only lose by 14-points with that kind of shooting is a good sign that this team is capable of keeping it within single digits against the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed each of their first 3 opponents to eclipse the 100-point mark.

A big reason the Celtics were able to keep it somewhat close against the Rockets is their defense. Boston held Houston to just 42.1% shooting. Brad Stevens has this team playing hard and we saw what they were capable of in their 121-105 win at home over the Nets in the opener. I think this Celtics team is flying under the radar and is going to be a profitable team to back early on in this spot. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Boston!

4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Knicks -

The Knicks are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Bobcats, who find themselves playing on the road in a 2nd game of back-to-back set. Charlotte has not looked great in their first two games. They were fortunate to get a win at home against the Bucks in the opener and managed just 69 points in a loss last night to the Grizzlies. The Knicks got a huge win at Cleveland last Thursday and are going to come out extremely motivated after getting embarrassed by the Bulls in their home opener.

Charlotte is just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 games when playing on no rest, while the Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after an upset win as a road underdog and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after shooting 50% on 3-point shots in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 74% (49-17) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

4* Suns/Jazz NBA Western Conference Heavy Hitter on Jazz +

Utah is showing some nice value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Jazz are going to come out motivated after their 0-2 start, which has seen them lose to a couple of playoff teams from last year in Houston and Dallas.They were especially bad in their last game against Dallas, falling behind by as many as 30 points. When a team has that bad of a showing they almost always bounce back. I definitely like Utah to respond at home and get the win.

The Suns on the other hand are in a bit of a letdown spot. Phoenix has a quick turnaround after last night's big home win against the Spurs. The Suns really wanted that game last night versus San Antonio and I can't see them matching that intensity against Utah. The Jazz are 101-71 ATS in their last 172 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Utah!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings +

The Kings are showing great value as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento ended up losing 77-95 to Golden State at home in the opener, but that was a more competitive game than the final score would indicate. The Kings actually had a lead late in the 3rd quarter. They simply committed too many turnovers and couldn't buy a basket. As a team they show just 30.8% from the field. Sacramento hasn't lost back-to-back home openers since 1997.

The Trail Blazers enter off a 106-89 home win over the Thunder. It looks like they dominated on paper, but they actually trailed Oklahoma City going into the 4th quarter and the Thunder are as unhealthy as any team in the league. Portland was better on the road last year than previous seasons, but this team is not the same away from home. It's going to be hard for them to win here going away, which is why I really like the value we are getting with the Kings, who wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.

Sacramento finished last year 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss. Portland on the the other hand was just 2-6 ATS off a SU win by more than 10 points.

There's also a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 18-49 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pistons +

I love the value we are getting with Detroit as a 4.5-point dog against the Timberwolves. The Pistons should have covered last night in Denver, but managed just 16 points in the 4th quarter to lose by 10 as a 6.5-point dog. I don't see the offense struggling like that against the Timberwolves, who allowed 105 points to the Grizzlies last night. They let Memphis score at will inside as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 57 points on 24 of 33 shooting.

Another big thing here is that I think the Pistons are a team that's going to be greatly improved in 2014-15 under Van Gundy, while the Timberwolves simply can't be as good as last year after losing a player of the caliber of Love. There's just not enough weapons offensively right now, especially with Kevin Martin sidelined with an ankle injury. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Pistons to win this one outright.

While both teams are playing in the second game of back-to-back set, the Timberwolves really struggled in this spot last year. They were just 3-15 ATS over their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. It's also worth noting that Van Gundy has a history of getting his teams to respond off a double-digit loss. His teams are 60-36 ATS over their last 99 off a double-digit loss. These two trends combine to form a nice 66% (75-39) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

I was wrong on the Lakers being able to keep up with the Rockets last night, but I'm not taking the bait on Houston as a mere -3.5 point road favorite against the Jazz. Utah can be a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially early in the year when the home fans have new hope. The Jazz have a ton of young and talented players who are going to be extremely motivated to start their season against a playoff team from last year.

While the Rockets looked impressive on the road last night, they went just 21-20 on the road last year, compared to 33-8 at home. Unlike the Lakers, who had no answer inside for Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones, Utah has a more than capable frontcourt to slow them down in Derrick Favors and Enes Kantor.

What this play really comes down to is a big time system that has seen home teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent who is playing their second game of the season go 38-21-3 ATS. That's a 64% system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NBA Opening Night No Doubt ATS Rout on Lakers +

The Lakers are showing great value as a 6.5-point home dog against the Rockets. This is not the same Los Angeles team that won just 27 games last year. They might not have what it takes to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, but they should be highly competitive, especially at home. Kobe Bryant has something to prove this year and all this team has heard is how they aren't going to be any good. This should have them coming out of the gate playing with a lot of energy and passion against a top team from last season.

I think a lot of people are underestimating the additions the Lakers made in the offseason. Not only do they get back Kobe, but they brought in Jeremy Lin to help at the point, drafted Julius Randle and signed underrated free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. Having Lin help this team understand the Rockets schemes should also help in this one. New head coach Bryan Scott has worked this team hard in the offseason and is making defense a priority, which I think could catch some teams off guard after last year when the Lakers finished 29th in the league in scoring defense (109.2 ppg).

Houston on the other hand was unable to improve their roster in the offseason. Most notably they weren't able to bring back Chandler Parsons, who I believe was the one player outside of Harden and Howard that they couldn't afford to lose. Parsons did it all for the Rockets, averaging 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.19 steals, on 47.2% shooting from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc.

I look for Los Angeles to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning outright. Take the Lakers!

4* NBA Finals Game 5 Vegas Insider on Heat +

*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly*

4* Spurs/Heat Game 4 NBA Finals No Brainer on Miami -

The Heat didn't decide to show up to Game 3 on the defensive side of the ball until it was too late. Miami allowed San Antonio to score 41 in the 1st quarter and 71 in the first half. They would end up holding the Spurs to just 40 points in the 2nd half, but just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish off the comeback.

That performance is not going to sit well with James and company and I look for Miami to come out and play like this is Game 7. Defensively I look for the Heat to play their best game of the series and offensively I believe this will be the game where Mario Chalmers wakes up and finally contributes meaningful minutes. Not to mention, James is going to be playing like a man possessed on both ends of the floor.

Even with their win in Game 3, San Antonio is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. That was the first home game the Heat have lost in the playoffs and Miami has done an amazing job of responding in this situation.

Miami is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.Take the Heat!

4* NBA Finals Game 3 Vegas Insider on Heat -

The Heat took control of the series with a win in Game 2 and will be extremely motivated to maintain that edge with a win at home tonight. Had LeBron James not had to sit out the majority of the 4th quarter with cramps in Game 1, Miami could very well have a 2-0 advantage in this series. Just as I expected, James came out and delivered a huge performance in Game 2.

The Spurs have really struggled to keep James in check and defensively the Heat are giving San Antonio all kinds of trouble. In Game 1 Miami forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers and in Game 2 they limited the Spurs to just 44% shooting. I look for the Heat to be even stronger defensively in front of their home crowd and at the same time the role players for Miami should play better at home. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat won this one rather convincingly.

Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and just 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 80% (20-5) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat +

The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1.

Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1.

Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss,  5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on.

If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199.

The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games.

The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER

These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over.

San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season.

The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5!

5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -

The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points.

Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76.

Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Spurs -

As bad as the Spurs have looked in the last two games at Oklahoma City, I look for them to respond with a big time performance at home in Game 5. San Antonio is going to treat this as if it were a Game 7, as they don't want to go to Oklahoma City for Game 6 down 3-2.

The Spurs offense played about as poorly as they could in Games 3 and 4, shooting under 40% in both contests. I'm confident they aren't going to shoot better at home. Another key thing to factor in is that Oklahoma City invested a lot of energy to win the last two games and there's a good chance they won't be able to match the Spurs intensity tonight.

San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

There's also a strong system in play. Explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 154-84 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of San Antonio. Take the Spurs!

3* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers +

Indiana's chances of winning the series doesn't look good, but I don't expect the Pacers to let their season come to an end at home. I fully expect Indiana to come out and play like they did in their 107-96 home win in Game 1. While the Pacers will be laying everything on the line to stay alive, Miami could find it difficult to match their intensity from the previous three games with a comfortable lead. The Heat could also be without two key role players, as both Ray Allen and Chris Anderson are both listed as questionable for Game 5.

The Pacers are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games off a road loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after a SU defeat by more than 10 points.

There's a strong system in play, home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent - against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!

3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -

The Thunder got new life in the series with a 106-97 win at home in Game 3 and a big reason for that was return of Serge Ibaka. Not only did Ibaka's return provide an emotional lift for the rest of the team, he had a huge impact on the game with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks.

The Spurs no longer got easy looks in the paint and as a result their offense was completely out of whack. San Antonio shot just 39.6% from the field. With Ibaka feeling fine and expected to play in Game 4, I think the Thunder are showing unbelievable value as a small home favorite. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City won all four regular season matchups with Ibaka on the floor.

San Antonio is just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread and are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games in the playoffs. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 15-3 in their last 18 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 32-18 in their last 50 home games with a total set between 200 and 209.5 points. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Pacers +

The Pacers got out to a 15-point lead early in Game 3, but weren't able to finish the job, as Miami rallied and ended up winning by a final of 99-87. Indiana is more than capable of winning on the road and evening up the series at 2-2 and I expect a much more complete effort in a crucial Game 4. Regardless if the Pacers win this game, they should have no problem keeping it within 6-points to cover the spread. If it wasn't for Ray Allen's 4 3-pointers in the 4th quarter of Game 3, Indiana would have easily covered the number.

I really like the balance that the Pacers have displayed offensively. Four different players scored in double-figures and four more had at least 6-points. Miami relies heavily on James and Wade, who combined for 49 points. No other Heat starter reached double figures. I look for the Indiana defense to turn it up a notch and really make things difficult on the Heat in Game 4.

Indiana is 31-17 ATS in their last 48 games off a road loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. That's a 69% (42-19) system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder -

It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder.

The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most.

Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs.

The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Pacers +

I believe the books have overvalued the Heat big time at home in Game 3. Indiana poses a very difficult matchup for Miami and have to feel like they should be up 2-0. I just don't see enough separation between these two teams to expect the Heat to win here by 8+ points. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if Indiana won this game straight up. Either way, I like them to cover the spread.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games revenging a loss at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread last time out. Miami on the other hand is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after playing a game as a road favorite and just 6-18 in their last 24 home games after playing two straight on the road. That's a 77% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!

3* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Thunder +

The Thunder ended up losing Game 1 by 17-points, which wasn't a huge surprise given it was their first game without Ibaka. I look for Oklahoma City to make the proper adjustments for Game 2. I don't know that it will be enough for the win, but I like the value here getting 6-points. Keep in mind that the Thunder trailed the Spurs by just 7-points going into the 4th quarter.

Durant and Westbrook both played well in Game 1, combining for 53 points on 19 of 40 shooting. I look for an even bigger performance out of these two in what most would consider a must-win for OKC. I also expect a stronger defensive performance in Game 2. The Spurs did as they pleased in Game 1, shooting 57.5% from the floor (50 of 87) and 52.9% from behind the 3-point line (9-17). As good as San Antonio is offensively, it's going to be extremely difficult to match that level of efficiency in consecutive games.

Oklahoma City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to cover the spread, 4-1 in their last 5 conference finals games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their last game. That's a 82% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER

While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason.

With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points.

Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana.

The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals.

Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing.

San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.

4* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Indiana +

The Pacers had their struggles getting to this point, but none of that matters. All the chemistry concerns can be thrown out the window, Indiana hates the Heat and I look for them to do whatever it takes to win this series. I don't know if they will, but I definitely like them getting points at home in Game 1.

The Pacers are 38-10 on their home floor and when they have needed a win at home they have delivered. The home team has dominated this series when it comes to the spread. The visitor is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the Heat are just 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Indiana. Another strong trend in play is that the Pacers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 home games against 3-point shooting teams (36% or better) over the last 2 seasons. Take Indiana!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder +

The Thunder stole back the momentum with a furious rally at home to win Game 5 and I look for them to carry that over and finish off the Clippers with a win tonight. Despite getting a split in the two previous games at Los Angeles in the series, Oklahoma City played extremely well and arguably should have won both games. The best part about this is we don't need the Thunder to win to profit. 5-points is a lot for two evenly matched teams, especially with their being a great chance Oklahoma City will win outright.

The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their home games, 3-1-1 ATS following a game where they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record, 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS after a came where they covered the spread. Add it up and that's a 79% (27-7) system in favor of Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs -

The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest.

San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3.

The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -

My money is on the Thunder to hold serve and cover the 5.5-point spread at home. If it wasn't for a meltdown in the 4th quarter of Game 4, Oklahoma City would have a commanding 3-1 lead. While I liked the Clippers coming into this series, the Thunder have clearly looked like the better team. Los Angeles had to use ever last ounce of energy they had to rally in Game 4 and I look for them to suffer a major letdown on the road tonight. Oklahoma City's defense has really made it difficult on the Clippers, they have held them to 45% or worse from the field since allowing them to shoot 55% in Game 1.

The Thunder are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss by 3-points or less. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are just 53-86 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Trail Blazers have shown nothing in the first three games and I expect the Spurs to finish them off tonight in Portland. San Antonio has made it look easy to this point, as their offense is pretty much doing whatever they want against the Trail Blazers lackluster defense. At the same time, the Spurs are making both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard work extremely hard on the offensive end. I believe the spirit of the Trail Blazers has been broken and while some teams could suffer a letdown up 3-0, San Antonio will be motivated to finish the series and get some much-needed rest before the Western Conference Finals.

Portland is just 2-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half.

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Spurs.

3* NBA Playoffs Bailout Blowout on Wizards -

I like the Wizards to bounce back and even the series at home in Game 4. Washington couldn't play much worse than they did in Game 3. I still think the Wizards have a great shot at winning this series. Indiana has got back the homecourt advantage and I wouldn't be surprised if they came out flat and didn't play with that same intensity on the defensive end.

John Wall is due for a breakout game and I expect him to deliver when it matters the most. When Wall is attacking and playing well, the rest of the offense just seems to fall into place. I also expect the Wizards to play more small ball and try and spread out the Pacers defense to get their offense back in sync.

There's a strong system here telling us to fade the Pacers. Road Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games are just 12-43 (22%) ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Wizards!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is pretty much do or die for the Clippers, who can't afford to fall behind 3-1 with two of the next three being played in Oklahoma City. I'm confident Los Angeles will get the job done and cover the spread at home. This is a good spot to go against the Thunder, who have won two straight and can relax now that they got back homecourt.

This season the Clippers are 20-9 ATS following a SU loss, 16-3 ATS revenging a loss as a favorite and 12-3 ATS after two straight games where they failed to cover the spread. I just don't see the Thunder winning back-to-back games at the Staples Center and three in a row overall.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 36-10 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Clippers!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +

I like the Trail Blazers getting points at home in a must win situation. Portland is going to lay everything on line to avoid going down 0-3 and with the way this team plays at home I believe they will get the job done. The Trail Blazers were are a dominant 33-11 at home over the regular season and playoffs and that includes a double-digit win over the Spurs. San Antonio did beat the Blazers on the road in the second meeting in Portland, but it was by a mere 2-points. Given what this game means to the Trail Blazers, the value is with the home team.

There's a couple of strong systems in play favoring Portland. Explosive offensive teams who average 103+ ppg are 153-83 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. We also see that home underdogs who average 103+ ppg on the season are 56-28 (67%) after allowing 55+ points in the first half in each of their last two games since 1996.

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Nets +

It hasn't been as competitive a series as most expected to this point, but I don't think the Nets are going to go down without a fight. Brooklyn went into the 4th quarter with a great chance to win Game 2 in Miami, but went ice-cold from the field and ended up scoring just 15 points over the final 12 minutes. I know the Heat have won six straight in the playoffs, but if there was a game where they were going to relax and suffer a letdown, this would be it. I strongly believe the value is with Brooklyn as a home dog.

Brooklyn is 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing with double revenge and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. That's a 95% system in favor of the Nets!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Clippers -4

This will be the seventh time these two teams will have faced off this season. No team has been able to win or cover in consecutive games and I expect that trend to continue. I know the the Thunder had the better record in the regular season and have the league's MVP in Kevin Durant, but I think the Clippers are the better team and will be the ones advancing to the Western Conference Finals.

Durant is coming off a monster performance in Game 2, where he just missed out on a triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists. While he's going to get his in this series, I think there's a good chance he won't have as big as impact in Game 3. Even if Durant goes off again, I don't see the Thunder getting a similar performance out of Westbrook, who scored 31 points on 13 of 22 shooting. Westbrook is only shooting 42.3% in the playoffs and I look for the Clippers to do a better job of not letting him get as many easy looks.

Keep in mind that while Durant and Westbrook combined for 63 points, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin combined for just 32. I look for both Paul and Griffin to have a much bigger impact and I also like the Clippers supporting cast to have a big game.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss of 10 or more points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) are 118-71 ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Clippers!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +

As good as the Spurs looked in their 24-point win in Game 1, I like the Trail Blazers to come back with a much stronger performance in Game 2. Portland is a better team than what they showed on Tuesday and 7-points is simply too many for the Trail Blazers to be catching in this spot. It's not out of the question that Portland won't win this game outright.

The Trail Blazers are too good of an offensive team to repeat their poor shooting from Game 1. Portland shot just 37.8% from the field and were a dismal 4-16 (25%) from long distance. They also had an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and failed to bring the intensity on the defensive end. These are all areas that they can improve on in Game 2 and I believe they will.

There's a key system in play suggesting a play on Portland. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an explosive offensive team, scoring 103+ ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 39-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets +

I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright.

One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight.

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets!

5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -

Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field.

The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits.

The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite.

Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Pacers -

The Pacers haven't looked like the same team that dominated early on in the regular season, but they have shown the ability to rally together and win when they need to. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and desperately needs a victory in Game 2 to avoid going down 0-2 with the next two games in Washington. I expect the Pacers to respond and there's a lot of value here with them laying just 4.5-points. Keep in mind that during the two regular season matchups at Indiana, the Pacers were an 11 and 9 point favorite.

The Wizards are surprisingly 4-0 on the road in the playoffs, with each of their last two wins coming away from home. However, Washington is just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 games after 2 or more consecutive road victories.

There's a solid system in play for Indiana. Favorites who are a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 70-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Heat -

Forget about the fact that the Nets swept the regular season series. Miami is a different monster in the postseason and they have a huge advantage going into this series. The Heat were the only team in the first round to sweep their opponent, while the Nets were one of several teams who had to go the distance and on top of that they had to go Toronto for Game 7 on Sunday.

Miami has had a full week off and I look for the extra practice time to pay off big. The Heat are going to have new plays installed and give the Nets a different look than what they saw during the regular season. One of the reasons Brooklyn was able to have success against Miami was because they were able to slow down the game. That's not going to happen tonight. The Heat and their fresh legs will dictate the tempo and I look for them to dominate right from the opening tip.

Adding to the huge rest advantage, teams who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent on just 1 day of rest are 9-3 ATS in Game 1 of a series since 2004. This system is even stronger if you look at games only dating back 2009, as it's gone 5-1 during this stretch. Overall it's a 75% system in favor of the Heat!

4* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Pacers -

I was really impressed with the way the Pacers stepped up and delivered two huge performances to avoid an unthinkable upset to the Hawks in the first round. I believe that was exactly what this team needed to get out of their funk and I look for them to carry over that momentum into a win over the Wizards in Game 1.

I still think a lot of people are questioning the Pacers right now and as a result I think Indiana is showing some great value at home. In the two regular season matchups between these two teams at the Fieldhouse, Indiana won and won easily. Both victories came by at least 20-points and the Wizards scored just 139 points in the two games combined.

Indiana's defense really stepped in those last two games against the Hawks and that strong play on the defensive side of the ball sets up the Pacers in a favorable spot. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 42+ games into the season, with an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 85 points or less in their last game are 80-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Pacers!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Spurs -6.5

My money is on the Spurs to take care of business and cover the spread at home in Game 7. San Antonio is the better team and I believe they are going to turn what most are expecting to be a close game into a blowout.

The fact that San Antonio is favored by 6.5-points says a lot. The Spurs haven't covered a single game in this series and there's little doubt the public will take the points in this spot. Anytime it feels like the books have set a bad line, it's usually a good idea to go against the obvious choice.

There's no denying the Maverick's ability to score the basketball, but in a Game 7 in the playoffs it's about which team can dominant on the defensive end of the floor. I don't think there's any question that San Antonio is the stronger team on that side of the ball, which is a big reason why I like the Spurs to win and cover at home.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites who are shooting 47.5% or better from the field against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ have won 62% of the time since 1996!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Thunder -

The Grizzlies have no chance of keeping this one close. Memphis will be without leading scorer Zach Randolph, who is suspended after throwing a punch at Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in Game 6. On top of that, starting point guard Mike Conley will be playing at less than 100% with a bum hamstring.

It's hard enough for road teams to win Game 7, but I just don't see anyway the Grizzlies keep this close without Randolph and a healthy Conley running the point. I look for Oklahoma City to jump all over Memphis early and as we saw in the Grizzlies' 20-point home loss in Game 6, they are not equipped to rally from a huge deficit.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss and revenging a defeat of 10 or more points are just 31-58 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Thunder!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -

I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland.

The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well.

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games!

3* Hawks/Pacers NBA Playoffs Main Event on Hawks +

Atlanta is not only a difficult matchup for the Pacers, but this Indiana team has completely fallen apart down the stretch. What made the Pacers such a great team was their effort and chemistry, but that was lost when Roy Hibbert opened his big mouth and called his teammates selfish. After watching this team fall behind by 30-points at home in crucial Game 5, I just don't think there's any recovering.

Oddsmakers are all but begging for action on the Pacers with this line, which only strengthens my thought that the Hawks are going to finish the job and close out this series at home. Atlanta should have won both matchups at home, but the Pacers were able to steal a victory in Game 4. Indiana's not going to be so fortunate this time around and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks won in convincing fashion.

The hot shooting of Atlanta is a big positive going into Game 6, as the Hawks are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after making 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. Atlanta is also a dominant 12-4 ATS this season after a win by 10 or more points. Indiana on the other hand is just 9-19 ATS in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are averaging 99+ points/game. These three trends combine to form a massive 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Hawks!

5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER

The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total.

In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena.

It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER!

3* Rockets/Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Late Night Bailout on Rockets -

While the Trail Blazers have a commanding 3-1 series lead, I fully expect the Rockets to stay alive with a relatively easy win at home in Game 5.

Despite the fact that Harden is averaging 27.5 ppg in the series, he's shooting just 35% from the field and is a horrific 26.8% from behind the 3-point line. He's simply too good of a player to keep playing at this level and I'll take my chances he delivers a huge performance when it matters the most.

The other thing to keep in mind is that this series could just as easily be tied at 2-2 or even a 3-1 Houston edge, as two of the Trail Blazers three wins have come in overtime. I'm not convinced that Portland will be able to win three straight at the Toyota Center, which is a big reason why I'm fine laying the 5.5-points. Keep in mind that Houston had lost just 8-times all season at home during the regular season. Even with the two losses in this series, they are still winning on average at home by 8.4 ppg.

History also suggests that Portland will struggle in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15 ATS after two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more points and 8-20 after two straight games where both teams scored 100+. The Rockets on the other hand are 32-18 ATS at home after their last game went over the total and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. Combined that's a massive 69% (83-38) system in favor of the Rockets!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -

Chicago is one team that won't quit no matter the circumstances. They still believe they can win this series. I don't know if the Bulls can win three straight, but a definitely like them to win and cover at home in Game 5. The Wizards have some veteran players on their roster, but a lot of these guys don't have experience closing out a series, which is even a harder to do on the road. There's also some concern with Washington coming in a little over-confident after that easy win in Game 4.

Chicago is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to rebounding from a loss. The Bulls are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss and 26-16 ATS this season when revenging a loss to the same opponent. It's also worth noting that Washington head coach Randy Wittman is just 17-33 ATS on the road when his team has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These three trends combine to form a 65% (74-39-1) system in favor of the Bulls!