4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Wyoming -

Wyoming has one of the best homecourt advantages in the nation and we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys laying just 6-points at home against the Rebels. Wyoming is 11-2 on the season with a perfect 10-0 record at home. Their only two losses have come on the road against quality opponents in SMU and California. In the Cowboys 10 home wins, 8 have come by at least 9 points, including a 56-33 blowout win over Colorado as a 2-point underdog.

The Rebels have played just one true road game up to this point in the season and they got embarrassed 55-77 at Arizona State as a mere 7-point underdog. I still think we are seeing UNLV overvalued from that big win at home over Arizona, which they followed up with a cover against an awful Southern Utah team. With a huge game at Kansas on deck this weekend, this is the perfect letdown spot for the Rebels.

UNLV is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after covering 2 of their last 3, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs the MWC. Wyoming is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against team that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 41-21 in their last 62 home games off a win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 72% (80-31) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Wyoming!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

The Cavaliers are a complete mess right now and I look for their struggles to continue tonight against the Bucks. I think there's a lot to all the rumors surrounding the players not on the same page as head coach David Blatt and I look for things to get worse before they get better. 

Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 and could be without two of their best players in LeBron James and Kevin Love (both questionable). The Cavaliers are also in a difficult spot, as they just played last night in a big game against the Hawks. Not only will they be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7.

The Bucks have been one of the big surprises early, as Jason Kidd has his new team playing better than anyone anticipated. Milwaukee comes in off a 104-94 win at Charlotte and are 5-4 over their last 9 with their largest defeat during this stretch coming by 7-points. This will be just the 2nd game in the last 4 days for the Bucks and I look for them to control the tempo and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.

We also have a strong system backing a play on the Bucks. Road teams who have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, with a winning percentage of 45% to 55% are 94-48 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Spurs -

I think this is a great spot to back the Spurs at home against the Pelicans. While Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both listed as questionable, you never know what Popovich has up his sleeve. I wouldn't be shocked if both played tonight, especially with the way this line has jumped, but even if they don't I like San Antonio to win this game. The Spurs will be playing with double-revenge against the Pelicans, who they just recently lost to in New Orleans 90-97 on Dec. 26.

Keep in mind that prior to losing the last two against the Pelicans, San Antonio had won 18 of 21 over New Orleans and 22 of 25 at home. While the Spurs lost last night in Memphis, they won their previous home game against Houston 110-106.

What a lot of people are overlooking with the Spurs struggles is that they have gone through an absolute brutal stretch of games that has seen them face the Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavericks, Clippers, Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets and Grizzlies in that exact order. While they lost to New Orleans on the road, the Pelicans are just 6-11 away from home and are in a tough spot on the road here with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back set.

The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take the San Antonio!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Southern Illinois -

We are getting some great value here with the Salukis laying just 3-points in their conference home opener against Missouri State. Southern Illinois had won 7 of 8 before losing their last two at home leading up to their Christmas break. Head coach Barry Hinson has had his players full attention during their 8 day layoff and I look for them to take it to the Bears, who are just 2-5 away from home.

Southern Illinois is only giving up 59.3 ppg at home and I look for their defense to be the difference in this one. Missouri State doesn't exactly come in shooting with confidence. The Bears have connected on just 33.6% of their attempts over their last two games at home and are shooting just 41.6% from the field on the road this season. 

Missouri State is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last two games and are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after committing 8 or less turnovers in their last contest. These two trends combine to form a strong 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Salukis. Take Southern Illinois!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are a solid 9-4 at home and will be extremely motivated coming off a loss to the Bulls. New Orleans hasn't lost consecutive games since early December.

Phoenix is simply being overvalued here after due their 6-game winning streak that has saw them go a perfect 6-0 ATS. The key is that this is a tough spot for the Suns, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall. With the Pelicans coming into this game off a full 2-days of rest, they should have no problem coming away with a win against what has to be a tired Suns roster.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Phoenix. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are averaging 102+ ppg and have gone over the total in 2 or more consecutive games are just 12-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a poor defensive team that is giving up 98-102 ppg. That's a 74% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons -

The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic.

While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17.

Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Ohio -

This is a complete mismatch in talent and I look for Ohio to have to no problem winning at home by double-digits over the Seahawks. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met back in 2012, the Bobcats cruised to a 85-47 home win. UNC-Wilmington has gone just 2-5 on the road this year and just recently lost at Campbell 63-69 and Minnesota 82-108.

Ohio is simply being undervalued here based on the fact that they have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with a spread listed. The Seahawks are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 off a SU loss and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. It's also worth noting that Ohio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the CAA. These trends combine to form a 76% (38-12) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio!

4* Maryland/Michigan St Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan St -

While it hasn't been a typical start to the year for the Spartans, this is still one of the top teams in the Big Ten and I look for them to come out and make a statement against what I feel is a slightly overrated Maryland squad. The Terrapins do have a nice win over Iowa State and their only loss was against undefeated Virginia, but most of their scheduled hasn't been challenging.

It's not very often you will get the Spartans laying this small a number on their home floor and it's usually a good idea to jump on the opportunity when it presents itself. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 22.9 ppg.

One of the reasons we are getting value here with the Spartans is they just recently lost at home to Texas Southern 64-71 as a 24.5-point favorite. The thing you have to keep in mind is they were without one of their best players in Branden Dawson, who will be back in the lineup tonight. I also think that game served as a wake-up call for this team more than anything.

Michigan State was able to bounce back from that ugly loss with a 82-56 home win over the Citadel. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more points, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs a strong 3-pt shooting team that is making 37% or more of their attempts and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a win by 20+ points. Maryland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 65 or less in each of their last 2 games. These trends combine to form a 78% (57-16)  system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards +

This is a great spot to back Washington as a 4-point dog against the Rockets. Houston is still learning to adjust to the addition of Josh Smith and it's going to take some time before they get it figured out.

This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Houston is coming off two huge road games against Memphis and San Antonio and that game against the Spurs was last night, putting them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days. Washington on the other hand will be playing on a full days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, which should give them enough of an advantage to win this game outright. It's also worth noting that Houston has actually been better on the road than they have at home. The Rockets are 11-3 on the road, compared to just 10-5 at home.

Washington comes in off two blowout wins over the Knicks (102-91) and Celtics (101-88) and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after scoring 55+ points in the 1st half of their last two games. Wizards are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last game at home and 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +

I think we are catching some great value here with Toledo. The Rockets are clearly going to be motivated for a game against Duke, while the Blue Devils could struggle to play up to their potential in what will be their first game following an 11-day break and just their third game since Dec. 3.

In Duke's last two home games they only beat Army by 20 as a 27.5-point favorite and Elon by just 13 as a 32.5-point favorite. The books are clearly inflating the Blue Devils' lines, knowing the public is going to back this team regardless of the spread.

Toledo has shown they can hang against some quality opponents. The Rockets lost by just 10-points on the road against then No. 15 VCU and three days later only lost by 12-points at Oregon. Toledo will come in playing with a lot of confidence, as they have won 5 straight since a couple of heartbreaking losses to Detroit (79-82) and Oakland (79-81).

It's also worth noting that Toledo's last win game came on the road against McNeese St. The Rockets are a strong 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games off a road win. Duke on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 80% (28-7) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Toledo!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Monmouth -

The fact that Monmouth is favored here is a strong indicator that the Hawks are the better team, as the public is going to be all over the more well-known team in Rutgers, especially considering the Scarlet Knights are 7-5 on the season and Monmouth is just 5-6. The Hawks are also coming in off a 25-point home loss to St Francis-NY, while the Scarlet Knights are off a 25-point win over Sacred Heart.

One of the big keys here is that this is a tough spot for Rutgers, who are going to struggle to give Monmouth their full attention with their inaugural Big Ten opener at home against Northwestern on deck Wednesday. The Scarlet Knights are also a miserable 8-24 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they covered the spread, while Monmouth is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Favorites that returned all 5 starters from the previous season, who are coming off a game where they scored 60 or less points, are 161-97 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Monmouth!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* Kentucky/Louisville NCAAB Main Event on Louisville +

Kentucky is being overvalued here in a game that I think they are going to struggle to win. This will be the Wildcats first true road game of the season and only their third game away from home overall. This may not seem for a big deal with the way Kentucky has been rolling this year, but I'll gladly take 6-points with this Louisville team at home.

One of the big reasons that Kentucky has been so dominant to open the season is largely due to the fact that they have been bigger and better than their opponents. Few teams can match up with their 5 plays who are all 6'9 or taller, but the Cardinals are one team that can. Louisville's 4 players at 6'8 or taller and a special talent in junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Another big key here is Harell and the Cardinals won't be intimidated by the Wildcats.

Kentucky is just 6-16 ATS in their 22 road games over the last 3 seasons and have actually lost these games by an average score of 68.8 to 70.7. Wildcats are also just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games off a blowout win by 20 or more points and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games following 3 or more straight home games. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets +

This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant.

The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA ATS Main Event on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. Memphis is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 3 straight, which included an ugly 91-97 home loss to the Jazz as an 8-point favorite on Monday. The Grizzlies have been off since that game, giving them a full 3 days of rest going into this matchup. I think that break is exactly what this team needed to get back on track.

Houston just signed Josh Smith, who was released by the Pistons on Monday. That move is perceived to make the Rockets a lot better and I think it has them overvalued here. It's not likely Smith will be available tonight and anytime a team adds a player this late into the season it's going to have a negative impact before a positive one. Not only does it mess with the chemistry of a team, but some players don't handle the fact that they will be getting reduced minutes.

Either way, I look for the Rockets to have a difficult time coming away with a win against the Grizzlies. Even with their recent struggles, Memphis is a dominant 12-3 at home. They already defeated Houston at home 119-93 back on Nov. 17, which was their second straight home win over the Rockets by at least 17 points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 75%) are 56-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -

While the Hornets seem to have found new life following the injury to Lance Stephenson, as they come in having won 3 straight by an average 21.4 ppg, this is not a good spot for Charlotte. Not only will the Hornets be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see Charlotte having the injury on the road to keep this one competitive against a vastly improved Milwaukee team.

With a win over the Hornets, the Bucks can match last year's win total of 15. The big key here is that while Charlotte is in a brutal scheduling spot, Milwaukee comes in off a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bucks could be getting a boost here with the return of power forward Ersan Ilyasova, who has missed the last 9 games. Getting back Ilyasova is huge for a Bucks team that lost rookie Jabari Parker for the rest of the season and is also without reserve power forward John Henson.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Hornets. Underdogs who have beat the spread by more than 24 points in their last game, who have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season are a mere 4-26 ATS over the last 5 years. That's a 87% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are showing some decent value here as a 4-point underdog against the Flyers. Dayton just recently suspended both starting center Devon Scott and backup center Jalen Robinson. Those losses leave the Flyers without any size down low. In fact, Dayton's tallest active player now is just 6'6. Three of Georgia Tech's top four scorers are all 6'8 or taller and I look for the Yellow Jackets to take advantage of their big size advantage with a lot of easy baskets in the paint and a huge edge on the boards. Even prior to the losses of Scott and Robinson, this Dayton team was overvalued and I think it's going to take a couple games before the oddsmakers adjust accordingly.

Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win.

Underdogs who are an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) against a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) that have allowed 65 points or less in 4 straight games are 50-21 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Marshall +

This may seem like an evenly matched game and one that Nevada could win with it being on their home floor, but the Wolf Pack should not be favored against Marshall, especially not by this many points. Nevada has lost 8 straight games with their only two wins coming against Cal Poly and Adams State. The Wolf Pack just recently lost at home to Cal State-Fullerton 55-65 as a 5-points favorite.

While Marshall is just 1-7 in their last 8 games, they have played a much more difficult schedule and nearly pulled off a huge upset last week. The Thundering Herd lost 66-69 as a 18-point underdog to West Virginia on a neutral site. Marshall also lost by just 4-points to Penn State as a 6.5-point dog. I just don't see Nevada being able to score enough to get the win, as the Wolf Pack are only averaging 58.7 ppg, while Marshall is putting up 69.4 ppg.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Nevada. Home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 20% or less of their games and are playing an opponent with a losing record are just 3-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 90% system in favor of the Thundering Herd. Take Marshall!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Cal +

Cal should not be getting this many points at home against the Badgers. As good as Wisconsin is, this will be their first true road game outside of their home state, as their two true road games to this point have come against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette.

This is also a difficult spot for the Badgers to be 100% focused, as they haven't played in 8 days. Too much rest can be a bad thing and I look for the Badgers to come out flat here in a hostile environment. Keep in mind that each of the last 2 top 10 teams to visit Haas Pavilion have left with a loss. The most recent being No. 1 Arizona back in February last year.

The other big key here is that the Golden Bears are a talented team. Cal has an identical 10-1 record as the Badgers with their only loss coming against Texas, who I would rank ahead of Wisconsin. The Longhorns only defeat is a 8-point loss at Kentucky. The Golden Bears also have an impressive 14-point win over Syracuse on their resume.

Cal is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % above .600. These trends combine to form a 79% (19-5) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Rockets -

Houston has had this game circled since the schedule was released. Portland stunned the Rockets in Game 6 of last years first-round playoff matchup, as Damian Lillard hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. I believe it's a big reason why they have struggled in their two games leading up to this contest, as they have had their eyes set on this matchup.

The Rockets are catching the Trail Blazers in a great spot as well. This will be Portland's third straight road game in a span of just four days. Houston on the other hand will be playing their third straight home game and just their second game in the last 4 days.

Portland is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 110 or more in each of their last 2 games and 4-10 in their last 14 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Houston is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These trends combine to form a 71% (54-22) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +

Northwestern is getting way too much respect at home against UIC this afternoon. The Wildcats are still without last year's leading scorer JerShon Cobb and are just 2-4 over their last 6 games following a perfect 5-0 start. The Flames are definitely capable of keeping this one within single-digits. UIC has actually won 4 of the last 5 in the series, including a 50-44 victory in their last visit to Northwestern back in 2012, a game in which they were listed as a 11-point underdog.

One of the key things here is that this is a much bigger game to UIC than it is Northwestern, plus with this game being played right around Christmas, there doesn't figure to be the same kind of energy inside Welsh-Ryan Arena than you would normally expect to see for a Wildcats home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play telling us to fade Northwestern. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are off a win by 6-points or less against an opponent that is off a loss by 15 or more points are just 74-121 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Flames. Take UIC!

5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER

Teams tend to not shoot quite as well on Sundays as they do the rest of the week.  This normally means less scoring for good shooting teams and bad offensive rebounding teams (since they won’t get many second chance points.)  Today we have both teams fitting the bill which really has me liking the UNDER here.

The Magic are a good 3-point shooting team that hits 37.7% of their 3 point attempts on the year.  However, when the total is between 190-199.5 on Sundays a team is making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts, the UNDER is 119-68 (63.6%) the last five seasons.

Neither team hits the glass very well.  Orlando is averaging only 9 offensive rebounds per game against teams that normally give up 11.  Philadelphia is getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.  Both of these stats fit up favorable situations for our under.

On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996.  In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER here today.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Heat/Celtics UNDER

I think the Celtics are going to struggle on offense without Rajon Rondo so this total is a little too high. The Celtics are also coming off back to back performances of shooting over 55% from the floor, and that’s a trend that isn’t going to hold but probably helped bump this total up a little bit.  Plus Boston fits a great system where road teams with a total above 200 coming off 3 straight blowout wins of 15+ points are 27-6 (82%) for the UNDER since 1996.  

Miami has not played with too many totals above 200 this year and they have still trended pretty hard towards the UNDER, going below the number in six of their last 9 despite frequently seeing over/unders 10 points lower than this one.  Miami fits a system that says to take the UNDER when a team has allowed 105 or more in two straight games and they are playing a team off a 15+ point blowout win.  The UNDER is 93-57 (62%) in those situations the last five years.

No Bosh for Miami and no Rando for the Celtics means less offense for both teams.  

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

I’ll fade the Boston Celtics today as they play their second game without Rajon Rondo. Normally teams step up the first game a star goes down or is traded away and that was the case with Boston on Friday night as they put up 114 points and beat the lowly Wolves by 16 points.  They have been covering machines, beating the number 8 times in their last 10 games and one of those losses was by a half point.

Now they have to travel to Miami to take on a hungry Heat team.  I know Miami will be without Chris Bosh, but this will be his fifth game in a row that he’s missed so they are starting to get used to being without their big man.  Last time out they took the Wizards to the wire.

I think we are getting some value here due to Miami’s problems at home, but five of their last six losses in Miami have come against teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Hawks, Bulls, and Wizards, which are teams above the Celtics class.  

Boston is just 2-11 ATS on the road after a double digit win the last three seasons and 16-32 ATS after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1996. These trends combine to form a 70% (43-18) system favoring the Heat. Take Miami!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee has been playing better basketball as of late, covering four straight and winning three of their last four. They also beat the Clippers 111-106 on their home floor a week ago so you know they have the confidence they can hang with LA.

The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a tough loss in Denver last night, their third in five games. They are in a tough spot since they are flying back home after a late game last night in which Paul played 39 minutes, Griffin 41, and Jordan 42.5. I don’t think they are going to have their ‘A’ game for this one which means take the double digits.

Adding to this is a strong system backing the Bucks. Home teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are just 47-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational ATS Dominator on Pacers +

Denver has had a tough run lately with 7 losses in their last 9 games, but they are coming off a big win against a conference rival in the Clippers last night.  That got the monkey off of their back and I think they might be due for a letdown with the Pacers coming into town.  

Lawson Affalo and Chandler all logged over 32 minutes in the win and they were giving max effort the entire time as the second half and especially the fourth quarter was back and forth before the Nuggets pulled off the three point win.  

We are getting some value here with Indiana for a couple of reasons. The first is they haven’t been playing very well. They ran through a very difficult part of the schedule and lost 9 of their last 10. These were losses against teams like Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland, Atlanta, the Clippers, and Toronto though so they were only favored one time and it was by a single point over the Hawks. Now they know they have to take advantage of a soft slate coming up so they can get back on track.

The other reason there is some value here is that Denver went into Indiana the second week of the season and beat the Pacers by 20.  This actually sets up a nice situation as Indiana is 15-5 ATS on the road when revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite the last 3 years.

The Pacers offense has also been clicking and that sets up a nice situation where Indiana is 77-52 ATS on the road after scoring 100 or more in two straight games since 1996. We also find a strong system in play. Road teams that are revenging a home blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent that is coming in off a home win are 41-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER

Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes.  When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight.

The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games.  Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes.  

Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points.  Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30.  The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14.  I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Xavier -

Xavier is a good team and I’ll gladly lay this small number on them today.  Auburn likes to bring the full court pressure but Xavier has some solid, veteran guards that won’t be rattled.

On the flip side Aubun’s interior defense is a real weakness and Xavier is shooting 59% from inside the 3-point line this year so I think they will mop up down low.  Auburn is struggled on the offensive glass while giving up too many second chances, while Xavier has been rebounding well all year long, so advantage there with the second chances.

Xavier’s two losses came against two under-rated teams in Long Beach State and UTEP.  They have impressive wins over Alabama and Missouri already.  Auburn hasn’t come close to beating a team in Xavier’s class yet.  They lost by 20 against Tulsa and 30 against Colorado.  I think Xavier rolls here today.

The Musketeers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 60 points or less, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a win by 15 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after 3 or more consecutive wins.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road win and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 71-35 ATS since 1997. That's 67% system in favor of the Musketeers. Take Xavier!

5* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on Notre Dame -

This is a neutral site game but I’ll lay the small number with the better team. Notre Dame’s sole loss this year was to Providence when their defense let them down, but Purdue hasn’t played well on offense against any decent team in nearly a month.

Notre Dame hasn’t played a great schedule, but they are coming off a 20 point win over Florida State and have a W over a very good Michigan State Spartan team. The Boilermakers on the other had has some losses to Vanderbilt and North Florida.  

Purdue has struggled against good defenses the last two years, going just 3-12 ATS against teams who hold opponents to 39% or less from the floor. Notre Dame just fits that criteria as they have held opponents to 38.8%.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Fighting Irish. Neutral site favorites that have an explosive offense (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in each of their last two games and are going up against an opponent that averages (74-76 ppg) are 37-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Florida -

This will the Gators final game before a 9-day break leading up to their in-state showdown against rival Florida State. I look for Florida to come out strong and add their 4th straight win after dropping 4 of their first 7 and lay a beating on the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is just 5-5 on the season with three ugly losses at Arkansas by 30-points, at home to Minnesota by 15-points and at NC State by 13-points. They also were beat at home by both Iona (81-85) and Delaware State (65-72).

I think we are getting some great value here on Florida due to their less than impressive start to the season. However, the Gators have responded with three straight wins by at least 25-points and there's nothing to be ashamed about having 4 losses to Miami, Georgetown, North Carolina and Kansas. Florida will likely continue to struggle against top notch teams until fully healthy, should continue to beat up on bad teams like Wake Forest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites in games played on a neutral site that are averaging 67-74 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 67-74 ppg after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points are 51-15 ATS since 1997. That's a 77% system in favor of the Gators. Take Florida!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Western Michigan +

Western Michigan is showing big time value here as an underdog. Northwestern has lost their top returning scorer from last year in senior guard JerShon Cobb this week and in their first game without him were upset at home by Central Michigan 67-80 as a 6-point favorite. Not only did the offense struggle, but they allowed the Chippewas to shoot 58% from the field.

Western Michigan comes in off solid win on the road at Pacific 80-72 and are a respectable 4-3 away from home. The Broncos will be motivated to take advantage of the Wildcats without Cobb and get some revenge from last year's 16-point loss at Northwestern. I'll take the 3.5-points as insurance, but I fully expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

The Broncos are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win, while Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after being listed as a favorite in each of their previous two games. These trends combine to form a 84% (26-5) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Western Michigan!

4* Ohio State/North Carolina NCAAB Vegas Insider on North Carolina +

Ohio State has played a joke of a schedule so far and in their only real game they got beat by 9 points against Louisville.  North Carolina on the other hand has played a decent schedule and I think that will have them more prepared for this game than the Buckeyes.

It’s tough to compare stats since the strength of schedules are so different for these two squads, but North Carolina is holding opponents to 25.2% from the 3-point line this year while Ohio State has been shooting nearly 42%.  I think this is a stat the Buckeyes have inflated by the inferior competition and they aren’t going to be getting the easy points they are used to with how the Tar Heels play defense.  Louisville was able to completely shut down their offense, and North Carolina should be able to do the same.

A couple of long term trends support our position here.  Since 1997 the Tar Heels are 73-45 ATS after allowing 60 points or less and they are 142-112 ATS in non-conference games.

Adding to this is the fact that Ohio State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site contests and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 86% (30-5) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado State -

Colorado State is showing exceptional value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against in-state rival Denver. The Pioneers are just 5-5 on the season and have yet to beat a quality team. Their 5 wins have come against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M-CC (twice). This is not the same caliber a Denver team as year's past and they are not the same dominant home team.

Colorado State on the other hand are a perfect 10-0 and one of the most underrated teams out of the Mountain West. The Rams recently went on the road and beat Colorado 62-60 as a 5.5-point underdog and are simply not getting the respect they deserve.

Colorado State will also be out for revenge after losing at home 70-80 as a 9.5-point favorite last year. While returning guard Brett Olson was the leading scoring in last year's win, the real difference maker was departed forward Chris Udofia, who had 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Adding to this is the fact that the Rams had won and covered each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 60-53 road win in 2012 as a 3-point underdog.

Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (19-3) system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Magic -

The Magic are showing big time value as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jazz. This favorable line has a lot to with how these two teams come into this matchup. Orlando lost at Boston by 17 in their most contest, while Jazz won by 18 as a 3.5-point dog at Miami. The key thing to keep in mind is that Utah is just 3-10 on the road and haven't won consecutive games all season. The Jazz are also a mere 2-12 in their last 14 overall.

Orlando comes in at just 10-18 overall, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Magic have played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point. Orlando will be playing their 29th game of the season and this will be just their 10th contest at home. Most of the Magic's struggles have come against the top teams, as they are 7-4 SU versus the bottom 14 teams in the league, which includes a 98-93 win at Utah back on Dec. 5.

Not only do I expect the Magic to be the more motivated team here, this is a bad spot for the Jazz. Utah will be playing their 4th consecutive road game in a span of just 6 days. The Jazz are also just 16-29 ATS in their last 45 games after they covered the spread last time out and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a road win.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play going against Utah. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 15-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* Bucks/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Kings -

The Kings are expected to get back center DeMarcus Cousins tonight and I look for his return to this team a huge emotional lift. Sacramento had opened the season 9-5 before Cousins' injury and without him on the floor they have lost 8 of their last 10. While the Kings are getting healthy, Milwaukee is dealing with the loss of star rookie Jabari Parker and could potentially be without starting forward Giannis Antetokounmpo after he suffered an ankle sprain in last night's game against Portland.

Not only am I expecting the Kings to come out extremely motivated in Cousins' return, but Sacramento has a big edge here in rest. The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days, while the Bucks will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

Sacramento is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Duke -

The Blue Devils smallest margin of victory during their perfect 9-0 start is 10-points against both Michigan State and Wisconsin. I look for Duke to be all business against the defending champs, who are down a few notches. Connecticut comes in off a 40-point win over Coppin State, but prior to that they had lost 3 in a row to West Virginia, Texas and Yale.

The Huskies rely heavily on Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah and that's just not enough to go up against this deep and talented Blue Devils squad. I look for freshman Jahlil Okafor to make Brimah a non-factor offensively, while coach K centers the rest of his defense around keeping Boatright in check and forcing someone else to beat them. This is a statement game for the Blue Devils and I wouldn't be shocked if they won here by 20+ points. Take Duke!

3* Grizzlies/Spurs NBA Main Event on Spurs -

Even with Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard sidelines with injuries, I think the Spurs are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite. San Antonio has won 9 straight over the Grizzlies, including 107-101 win at Memphis just 12 days ago, which is the only home loss the Grizzlies have suffered all season.

The big key here is that this is a horrible spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies just hosted the Warriors in a nationally televised game on ESPN last night and laid it all on the line against Golden State, who still holds the NBA's best record at 21-3. Not only will this be the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but Memphis will be playing their 4th game in a span of just 6 days.

Another factor here is that we are catching the Spurs off a loss (95-108 at Portland). San Antonio has dropped consecutive games just once this season and that was back at the beginning of the year. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Memphis. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 14-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.

4* NCAAB Mid-Major Game of the Month on Old Dominion -

The Monarchs are showing some nice value here as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Georgia State. Old Dominion will be out for revenge from last years 73-79 loss at Georgia State, which saw them lose despite shooting 51% from the field. The difference in the game being 32 made free throws for the Panthers compared to just 13 for the Monarchs. 

Old Dominion should have the calls go more in their favor on their home floor and I look for them to once again shoot at a very high percentage. The Monarchs should also control the glass and I wouldn't be shocked if Georgia State had an off night shooting, as they have been off since Dec. 4 (12 days). Old Dominion had been on a similar break before getting back on the floor in a 85-48 win over North Carolina A&T on Sunday.

It's also worth noting that the Monarchs have dominated so far this season on their home floor, which includes a 73-67 win over then No. 14 VCU and a 63-57 victory over Richmond. Georgia State on the other hand has struggled on the road. While they are 2-2, their two wins came against a couple of below average teams in Oakland (83-78) and IUPU (66-63). Look for the long layoff to be too much for the Panthers to overcome.

Old Dominion is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when listed as a favorite, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest. Monarchs are also a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games, while Georgia State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (54-13) system in favor of the Monarchs. Take Old Dominion!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

There's no question the books are overvaluing the Wizards at home against the Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota's just 2-9 on the road, while Washington is 12-2 at home. However, the Wizards are only 6-7 ATS at the Verizon Center and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Washington has won 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall, which I believe is going to have them struggling to give a bad team like the Timberwolves the respect they deserve.

Getting up for Minnesota becomes an even bigger challenge when you factor in that this will be Washington's 6th game in the last 9 days. The Wizards are ready for a break and could find themselves looking ahead to the two days off following this contest. Look for the Timberwolves to be the more aggressive team, especially early on, which should allow them to keep this close enough to cover the large spread.

There's a nice system in play backing Minnesota as well. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost at least 4 of their last 6 games against an opponent that has won at least 8 of their last 10 are 73-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Oklahoma -

The Sooners are actually showing some great value here against Oral Roberts as a 17.5-point favorite, as this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Golden Eagles. Oral Roberts just played last night at home against Missouri State in a makeup game from Dec. 7. Not only will the Golden Eagles be playing in rare back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days, as they faced New Mexico on Saturday.

Oklahoma on the other hand will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 11 days. This will also be just the 2nd true home game for the Sooners since Nov. 23, which should have plenty motivated to take the floor in front of their home fans. Oklahoma three home games this season have all resulted in blowout wins. They beat SE Louisiana 78-53, Northwestern St 90-68 and Missouri 82-63. Oral Roberts adds even more value here, as they are 0-3 on the road, including a 14-point loss at Missouri.

Oklahoma is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 13-5 in their last 18 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against a bad offensive team that is shooting 42% or worse from the field. Oral Roberts is 7-24 ATS in their last 31 when they have won 3 or their last 4 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 75% (72-24) system in favor of the Sooners. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER

The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field.

Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204.

OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic +

The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan.

With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8.

The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest.

There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206

While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home.

Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206.

OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set.

San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver.

The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York.

The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season.

UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on George Washington -

I cashed in on the Colonials as a 9-point home favorite Thursday against DePaul and I'm backing them again as a small road favorite against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not as good as their 9-1 record would indicate, as they have benefited greatly from a soft schedule. Keep in mind that despite that strong record, Penn State is just 1-6 ATS.

I look for this one to be won on the defensive end and the Colonials hold a big edge on that side of the ball. George Washington is giving up just 59.2 ppg against teams that are averaging 64.8 ppg. Penn State on the other hand is allowing 68.1 ppg against teams that are averaging just 67.6 ppg.

Offensively these two teams are both scoring right around 73-74 ppg, but the Colonials are shooting 47.5% from the field while the Nittany Lions are only connecting on 43.4%. George Washington should have no problem building up a comfortable lead and covering this one without any problem.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites with an excellent defense that is allowing 63 or less points/game against an opponent with an average defense that is giving up 67 to 74 points/game are 195-124 ATS  since 1997 after leading in their previous game by 15 or at the half. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Colonials.

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Bucks +

This might seem like a small spread for the Clippers against the Bucks, but I look for Los Angeles to struggle to come out with a whole lot of intensity in this one. The Clippers had their 9-game winning streak snapped in a 96-104 loss at Washington last night. Not only will they be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Anytime a team has a lengthy winning streak snapped like the Clippers just did, their tends to be a minor slump that follows. As for the Bucks, they are going to come out extremely motivated here and will have a big advantage coming into this contest on a full 3 days of rest. Milwaukee is just 1-5 in their last 6 games but three of those losses came on the road against the likes of the Cavs, Mavs and Thunder. The Bucks are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season. I look for Milwaukee to keep this one close throughout and think there's an excellent chance they win this one outright.

The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 76% (45-14) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* Big Chalk Game of the Month on Stanford -

The Cardinal should have no problem covering this number against Denver. The Pioneers were just lost at home by 10 points to UNI and each of their 3 previous losses (all on the road) have come by at least 16 points. Stanford's only two losses this season have come against Duke on a neutral site and at DePaul. They are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 17.3 ppg.

The big key here is that Denver is awful defensively. They allowed UNI to shoot 70% from the floor, which was the third time this season they allowed an opponent to shoot 60% or better. Stanford comes in shooting 45.4% against teams that are only allowing opponents on average to shoot 41.4%. The Cardinal have too much size and should score at will against the Pioneers inside. Defensively Stanford is only allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% at home and are allowing just 59.7 ppg. This one has blowout written all over it as the Cardinal should win here by 20+ rather easily.

Denver is 15-39-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against a team with a winning record, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12 and  3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent that is shooting 45% or better offensively and allowing 42% or less defensively. These trends combine to form a 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Michigan +

I know the Wolverines are coming into this game off back-to-back shocking losses at home to New Jersey Tech and Eastern Michigan, but I look for Michigan to bounce back and give Arizona all they can handle tonight. The Wolverines have wins over both Oregon (70-63) and Syracuse (68-65) and a close loss to a very good Villanova squad (55-60). Simply put those ugly loss for Michigan have created some big time value here, as they would not be catching double-digits had they won both of those games.

I know they just failed in this spot, but the Wolverines are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home loss. Michigan is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after playing 3 consecutive home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 50 points and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Pac-12.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are off an upset loss as a favorite are 226-142 ATS in the month of December since 1997. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Bowling Green -

The Falcons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against Cleveland State. Bowling Green is one of the more improved teams in the country under first year head coach Chris Jans, who was one of the top assistants at Wichita State the last seven years. Cleveland State is a quality team, but have really struggled on the road. The Vikings are just 1-3 away from home with the only win coming against a below average Marshall squad.

One of the areas where Jans has made his presence felt is on the defensive side of the floor. Opponents are shooting just 38.9% from the field against the Falcons this season. Cleveland State has shot just 38.9% from the floor on the road and I just don't see them being able to generate enough offense here.

Bowling Green is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last 2 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 versus the Horizon League. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Bowling Green!

5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets +

Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread.

Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy.

The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away.

Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

The Pacers are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Indiana is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 6 straight and are catching the Raptors in a good spot. Toronto is coming off a crushing 101-105 loss at Cleveland last time out and I look for them to struggle to match the Pacers' intensity.

It's also worth noting that Indiana has been a profitable team to back away from home. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto adds to this with a mere 3-7-1 ATS record over their last 11 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.

Another thing to note is that while they have come in losing efforts the Pacers have been connecting from long distance. Indiana has made 9 3-pointers in each of their last two games and are 9-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come in having made 9 or more in back-to-back games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Raptors. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog and are playing with 2 days rest are 35-72 (33%) ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Magic +

I look for the Magic to come out inspired against their division rivals after what took place in Wednesday's heartbreaking 89-91 loss at home to the Wizards. Orlando blew a 89-84 lead with less than a minute to play, while giving up the game-winning basket on an inbounds alley oop with 0.8 seconds left on the clock.

Prior to that the Magic had won back-to-back road games at Utah and Sacramento and have continued to be one of the most underrated teams in the league early this season. That's evident by the fact that Orlando is just 9-15 SU and 14-10 ATS. The Magic have been especially good at covering on the road, where they are 11-5 ATS.

The key here is that this line has been inflated due to Atlanta coming in having won 8 straight and covering the spread in each of their last 5. This is simply too many points for a division game, especially when you consider that Orlando has won 2 of the last 3 with their only loss coming by 3-points. I also think it's going to be difficult for the Hawks to get up for this game, knowing that they have a game at Orlando on deck tomorrow night. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Atlanta. Home favorites off a home win by 10 or more points are just 42-80 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* Thunder/Cavaliers NBA TNT Main Event on Thunder -

Oklahoma City is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Cavaliers. While Cleveland comes in riding a 8-game winning streak, the Thunder have won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Due to Oklahoma City's slow start with Durant and Westbrook sidelined and just how good the Western Conference, the Thunder find themselves in desperation mode in December.

As impressive as the Cavaliers run has been, you have to keep in mind that all 8 wins have come against the Eastern Conference, with 5 of the 8 at home. Their 3 road wins came against the Knicks, Raptors (without DeRozan) and the Nets. I think it's led to Cleveland getting a little too much respect here. Not only are the Thunder one of the elite teams in the league when healthy, they have one of the best homecourt advantages.

Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 81% (29-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on George Washington -

While DePaul is off to an impressive 6-1 start, I look for the Blue Demons to struggle to be competitive here against the Colonials. This will be DePaul's first real road test of the season as their only other away game came against an inferior in-state foe in Chicago State. George Washington is a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 33.4 ppg.

Offensively both of these teams come in averaging a lot of points. The Blue Demons are scoring 79.7 ppg and the Colonials are putting up 72.9 ppg. However, defensively there's a quite a difference here. George Washington is allowing just 58.0 ppg against teams averaging 62.9 ppg, while DePaul is allowing 68.4 ppg against teams averaging just 66.2 ppg. With the Blue Demons' offense figuring to not be up to par on the road, I look for the Colonials defense to be the difference and allow George Washington to win here by double-digits rather easily.

DePaul is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg and George Washington is 29-14 ATS in their last 43 home games after scoring 75+ in two straight games.

Adding to this is a strong system in play telling us to fade DePaul. Road underdogs who are an excellent offensive team (76+ ppg) against an excellent defensive teams (63 or less ppg) that come in off 3 straight wins by 10 or more are just 47-90 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington!

4* NCAAB Late Night Bailout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Wyoming. Cal's only loss on the season came against a Final Four contender in Texas. The Cowboys are also off to an impressive start at 8-1, but that lone loss came in their only other true road game against SMU, which they lost convincingly 53-66. It's also worth noting that Wyoming has played a soft schedule to this point. While they have a big win over Colorado on their resume, the Buffaloes have a lot of improving to do if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament.

The big key here is that the Cowboys just aren't as good on the road as they are at home. Wyoming went 14-4 at home last year, compared to just 4-9 on the road. Cal on the other hand was 13-4 at home last year and that's that much more impressive when you consider they play in a pretty solid Pac-12 conference.

Wyoming is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Cal on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 78% (28-8) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Denver +

The Pioneers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Northern Iowa. The Panthers just recently cracked the Top 25 (No. 23) and while this is a solid squad, I think we are seeing them overvalued on the road. Magness Arena is a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially a small school like UNI that doesn't do a ton of traveling. This will be just the second true road game for the Panthers. While they won the first, they needed overtime to escape SF Austin with a 79-77 win. Denver is just 4-3 overall, but are a perfect 3-0 at home with all three wins coming by double-digits.

Couple other factors here that I think are working in our favor is that Northern Iowa has a huge game on deck at VCU this Saturday, which is going to make it difficult for the Panthers to give a 3-loss Pioneers team their full attention. The other being that both of these teams like to slow the game down and rely on their defense to win games, which makes the 3.5 points we are getting that much more valuable.

Northern Iowa is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after playing 3 straight as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half in each of their last two games. Denver on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. These trends combine to form a 82% (31-7) system in favor of the Pioneers. Take Denver!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Timberwolves +

This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves at home and fade the Trail Blazers. While Portland has opened up their 5-game road trip with two wins and have won 5 straight overall, this figures to be a game where they aren't 100% motivated to play their best basketball. The Trail Blazers will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set and their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Minnesota on the other hand is going to come out desperate to get a win at home after losing 6 straight. While Portland will be playing with tired legs, the Timberwolves come in off a day of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days. Portland is only outscoring opponents by 5.1 ppg on the road and Minnesota is only getting outscored by 7.0 ppg at home. Look for the Timberwolves to keep this one close throughout and potentially pull off the upset.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota lost by 16-points at home to Golden State last time they took the floor. The Timberwolves are a dominant 13-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a home loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system in play. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 205-130 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Purdue -

The Boilermakers should have no problem covering this spread at home against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are just 2-2 on the season with their two wins coming against the likes of Central Arkansas and Belhaven. The real key who they lost to. They lost by 5-points at home to Lamar, whose only other win on the season is against the LSU-Alexandria Generals. Lamar also has losses by 39-points to SMU and 37 to ISU. Arkansas State also lost at home to Tennessee-Martin, who has double-digit defeats against both Marquette and Nebraska. Winning here by 20-points isn't going to be an issue for Purdue, who has a 52-point win over Grambling, 40-point win over Samford, 21-point win over Missouri and 20-points wins over IUPU and IPFW.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Red Wolves. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who are off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and only returned 1 or 0 starters are 32-67 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% long-term system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Lakers -

This is a great spot to back the Lakers at home as a small favorite against the Kings. Los Angeles is going to come out highly motivated after dropping 3 straight, especially after losing by 17 at home last time out against the Pelicans.

While Sacramento comes in off a 101-92 home win over the Jazz, the Kings remain without star center DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento is just 2-4 without Cousins and he's clearly a big loss against the small frontcourt of LA. Not only are the Kings without their best player, but this is brutal scheduling scenario. Sacramento will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th in 5 days overall.

The Lakers are 19-4 (83%) ATS in their last 23 games versus teams who average 20 or less assists/game. Adding to this is that it's no secret that LA is not a great defensive team, but it's a lot easier to play defense when the opposing team doesn't share the basketball. It's also worth noting that head coach Byron Scott has went to a more defensive lineup, replacing starters Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer with Ed Davis and Ronnie Price. Take the Lakers!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Heat +

This might seem like a good spot to take the Suns as a small home favorite against the Heat, who have lost 4 straight, but I look for Phoenix to struggle in this one. The Suns are coming off a heartbreaking 120-121 overtime loss at the buzzer to the Clippers last night. Not only will Phoenix be playing on no rest, this will be their 4th game in 5 nights.

The Suns simply aren't going to have a whole lot left in the tank and I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat won this game outright. Miami is clearly going to be motivated after 4 straight double-digit losses and with Wade, Bosh and Deng all healthy I'm expecting the Heat to deliver one of the better performances of the season against the Suns.

Miami is 20-6 ATS over their last 26 road games with a total of 200 or more points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest.

Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Suns. Home teams who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 86-139 (38%) ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +

The Aggies are showing great value here as a 5.5-point underdog against their former Big 12 rivals. Despite a 6-1 start that includes an impressive home win over Arizona State and their only defeat coming by 2-points at Dayton, Texas A&M is not getting the respect they deserve because of three straight seasons without a NCAA Tournament berth. However, this is the best team Texas A&M has filed since Billy Kennedy took over and a big reason for that is the addition of two key transfers. Jalen Jones came over from SMU and is leading the team with 12.4 ppg and Danuel House is 2nd at 11.8 after transferring in from Houston.

It's not just Jones and House that have sparked the Aggies strong start. Texas A&M has provided a balanced attack with 6 different players average 7 or more points/game. Baylor is a quality team, but are missing one of their key players in senior guard Kenny Cherry (10.3 ppg). His absence has put a ton of pressure on Taurean Prince and Royce O'Neal to shoulder their scoring load and I believe it has the Bears vulnerable. Look for the Aggies to keep this one close and potentially win here outright.

Home teams who have allowed 65 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are a mere 49-90 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Aggies. Take Texas A&M!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER

With the Grizzlies having lost two of their last three, including a 101-107 home loss to the Spurs last Friday, I look for Memphis to be all business against the Mavericks tonight, especially considering Dallas took 3 of 4 against the Grizzlies last year. With the Mavs coming in leading the league in scoring at 110.6 ppg, I believe it's resulted in an inflated total here. Memphis has the leagues' best defense, allowing just 93.5 ppg. Look for the Grizzlies to slow this game way down and really make Dallas work on both sides of the ball.

It's also worth noting that this will be the Grizzlies 3rd straight home game and they are well rested. Memphis hasn't played back-to-back games since early November. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 12-2 the Grizzlies last 14 games after playing two straight games as a home favorite. Average score in these games is just 184.1.

While the Mavericks have went over the total in 13 of 22 games this season, the UNDER is 5-2 in Dallas' last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 30-8 since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more with a road team that has gone over the total in 5 or more consecutive games who are an excellent offensive team (102+ ppg) and average defensively (92-98 ppg). That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Air Force -

The Falcons are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Nebraska-Omaha. Air Force is a perfect 3-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 73 to 47 (+26 ppg), while the Mavericks are just 1-3 on the road getting outscored by 11.7 ppg. I see this one being decided on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons are only giving up 58.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting, while Nebraska-Omaha is allowing 80.0 ppg and 47.1% shooting.

Air Force is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having won at least 4 of their last 6 and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after being listed as an underdog in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (35-8) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Air Force!

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Pacers -

While Indiana has lost 4 straight and the Hawks have won 6 in a row, I think the value is clearly with the Pacers at basically a pick'em at home. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge after a 10-point loss in Atlanta earlier this season, they are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after getting swept on their 4-game road trip.

A couple keys here that favors the Pacers is they are a lot healthier this time around than they were in that first meeting against the Hawks. David West and C.J. Watson are both back from injuries, plus Rodney Stuckey is playing a much bigger role than he was early in the season. The other factor is that Atlanta is in a tough spot after playing Denver yesterday. Not only will the Hawks be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be there 5th game in the last 7 days. Indiana on the other hand comes in off 2 full days of rest.

There's also a strong system telling us to fade Atlanta. Road underdogs who are a poor defensive team that is allowing 99+ points/game on the season after allowing 85 points or less in each of their last two are just 5-23 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 82% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears should have no problem cruising to an easy win at Nevada this afternoon. The Wolfpack are way down this season and the books have been slow to react, thus creating great opportunities to fade this team early on. Nevada has lost 5 straight with the last 3 coming against the likes of Weber State, Nebraska-Omaha and Long Beach State. The only loss on the season for Cal is a neutral site game against Texas, who is a legit Final 4 contender. The Bears did struggle last time out, needing double-overtime to beat Montana at home, but that should have them coming out focused against Nevada.

Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game. Nevada is also just 1-10 ATS when off a road loss of 10 or more points. These two trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (16-1) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

4* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Sunday's matchup between the Wizards and Celtics. This is an early tip-off for the NBA and I think it's going to have both not playing up to their full potential. Washington has been the better of the two teams and should be able to dictate the tempo. The Wizards are only giving up 92.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Celtics have been playing better defensively of late. They held Detroit to just 102 (88 in regulation) and the Lakers to just 96 in their last two games.

UNDER is 43-26 over the last 3 seasons when Washington takes on a up-tempo team who averages 83 or more shots. It's also 32-14 in the Celtics last 46 home games after two straight covers as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 since 1996 with a total of 200 or more where you have a road team off 3 straight blowout wins by 15 or more points. That's a 81% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Valparaiso -

This is a great spot to fade New Mexico. The Lobos are coming off a big game against in-state rival New Mexico State, which they won 62-47 as a 1.5-point home dog. This is not the same caliber a New Mexico team from last year. The Lobos lost Cameron Bairstow (20.4 ppg), Kendall Williams (16.0 ppg) and Alex Kirk (13.3 ppg), plus they are without this season's leading scorer Cullen Neal (17.0 ppg). I just don't see them responding well in this one. This will be the Lobos first true road game of the season and we have already seen them lose by double-digits in neutral site games against both USC and Texas A&M. Valparaiso's only loss is at Missouri back in their second game of the season. Since that loss they have won 7 straight with 6 of those wins coming by at least 13-points. Look for the Crusaders to have no problem winning here by double-digits. Take Valparaiso!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Pistons -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Pistons to be laying against any team considering Detroit has lost 10 straight. However, I believe this is a perfect spot for the Pistons to snap their skid and to do so in fashion. Detroit is going to come out highly motivated knowing that this is a game they can win and get some confidence going against the 76ers.

While Philadelphia recently won their first game of the season and have covered 4 straight, this is an awful spot for the 76ers, who will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. Philadelphia is just 1-7 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by a ridiculous 16.9 ppg. Even though the Pistons have just 2 more wins than the 76ers, they are the far more talented team in this matchup. It's also worth noting that Detroit has won 4 straight in the series at home with an average margin of victory of 15.5 ppg.

76ers are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing on 0 days rest, while the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days rest. These trends combine to form a 69% (43-19) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Loyola-Chicago -

Loyola-Chicago should have no problem going on the road and taking care of business against a bad Illinois-Chicago team. Both of these teams have played on the road at Kent State. The Ramblers won 69-61, while the Flames got beat by 18-points (60-78). It's also worth noting that UIC just lost at home to Grand Canyon. The Flames only two wins this season have come against the likes of Western Illinois and St. Xavier, while the Ramblers only two losses have come against Michigan State and Tulane. I look for Loyola to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. It's also worth noting that the Ramblers have won 2 straight and 3 of 4 in the series.

UIC is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after a SU loss, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game on the road and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Ramblers. Take Loyola-Chicago!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Miami -

This is a complete mismatch and I look for the Hurricanes to add to their impressive 8-0 start with an easy win at home against Wisconsin-Green Bay. The Phoenix were just embarrassed at Georgia State by 24-points last time out and lost by 24 earlier this season at Wisconsin. Miami has shown that they are for real with impressive wins over ranked opponents in Florida and Illinois. They also knocked off a quality Charlotte team twice in 3 days and rolled over a decent Akron team by 28-points. Green Bay does have a big time talent in Keifer Sykes, but there's just not enough talent around him and I look for him to struggle against the athletic guards of Miami.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points that are a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less ppg) who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more at the half are just 11-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Oklahoma State -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Oklahoma State may have lost star guard Marcus Smart, but the Cowboys are still have a lot more talent on the floor than that of South Carolina. Oklahoma State has opened up 7-0 with an impressive 73-58 victory over Tulsa in the MGM title game. Junior Phil Forte III (19.3 ppg) and senior Le'Bryan Nash (18.3) have carried the load offensively for the Cowboys early and are getting plenty of contributions from the rest of the team (7 other players average 4+ ppg).

I look for Oklahoma State to have no problem going on the road and knocking off a South Carolina squad that is just 4-3 on the season. Keep in mind that last year the Cowboys destroyed the Gamecocks 79-52 in Stillwater. It's not going to be near as big of a blowout this time around, but Oklahoma State should win here rather easily.

South Carolina is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games when listed as an underdog of 3 points or less, just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 72% (31-12) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

5* NBA Pre-New Years Western Conf Game of the Year on Timberwolves +

This is a perfect spot for the Timberwolves to bounce back from that ugly home loss to the 76ers and get a cover against the Rockets. It doesn't get much worse in the NBA right now than losing to Philadelphia, who had started the season 0-17. There's no question oddsmakers have inflated this line, especially with Houston beating the Grizzlies 105-96 in their last game. Not only do I think Minnesota will hang tough with the Rockets, I think they have a great shot at winning this game.

The Timberwolves are going to come out highly motivated after that poor showing against a quality team like the Rockets. Houston on the other hand figures to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Rockets are not only coming off that big game against Memphis, but they have a big home game against the Suns on deck tomorrow. Adding to this is the fact that Houston is still playing short-handed, as Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are all sidelined with injuries.

The Timberwolves will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost to Houston 101-113 back on Nov. 12. Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 revenging a home loss to an opponent.  Houston on the other hand is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games after having won at least 4 of their last 6 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Rockets. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 20-50 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Brainer Game of the Month on Hornets -

This is a great spot to back the Hornets at home as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Knicks. While Charlotte comes in having lost 10 straight, there's simply too much talent on this team for the Hornets to continue to play this poorly. New York looks to be the perfect opponent to get them out of their funk.

The Knicks are on a 6-game losing streak of their own and just 2-15 over their last 17 games overall. New York is also a mere 1-8 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by 8.3 ppg. The biggest key here is that the Knicks are in horrible scheduling spot, as they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that New York is primed for a letdown after laying it all on the line at home last night against LeBron James and Cavaliers. Charlotte on the other hand is playing on a full day of rest and just their 2nd game in the last 6 days.

We also find a strong system in play on the Hornets. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 61-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Thunder -

I believe we have a perfect spot here to lay a big number on the Thunder. Oklahoma City is finally healthy, as Kevin Durant made his season debut last time out against the Pelicans and Russell Westbrook has returned from a broken hand. The key here is that the Thunder lost in Durant's season debut and that is going to have this team highly motivated to get a win tonight.

Philadelphia was able to get their first win of the season after an 0-17 start, but it's not a sign of things to come. The 76ers are going to be the worst team in the league and they simply have no chance of keeping it close against the Thunder. One of the key matchups here is Westbrook against Philadelphia's Michael Carter-Williams. I look for Westbrook's speed and athleticism to really make life difficult on Carter-Williams and he's the one guy the 76ers need to play well to have any chance of keeping this withing single digits.

Adding to all of this is a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the 76ers. Home underdogs who have beaten the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 28-58 ATS in non-conference games over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pacers +

I believe the Pacers are showing some great value here, due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back double-digit losses at Cleveland and Phoenix. Indiana is quietly starting to get healthy, as C.J. Miles, Roy Hibbert, David West and C.J. Watson have all returned to the lineup over the last 5 days.

Even with all the injuries this team has went a respectable 7-11 to start the year and have been able to remain competitive because of their effort defensively. Indiana is only giving up 96.4 ppg and with this being just their 2nd game in 5 days, I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball.  Another key here is that this is the one matchup tonight that's not being aired as part of the TNT double-header, which I believe is going to take away some of the intensity from the Trail Blazers.

It's also worth noting that the Pacers have given Portland a lot of trouble over the last few seasons. Indiana has won 4 of the last 7 and only 1 of their 3 losses have come by more than 5 points. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing a 100+ in their last game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Home teams who are horrible foul drawing teams (average 21 or fewer free throws/game) are just 89-153 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

The Cyclones have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country and have won 23-straight at Hilton Coliseum against non-conference opponents. This is going to be an electric atmosphere with Iowa State hosting a ranked opponent and I look for this team to respond with one of their best performances of the season.

While Arkansas has an impressive road win over SMU, the rest of their schedule has featured a bunch of cupcakes. I look for the Razorbacks to struggle on the road against what will be the best team they have seen so far in 2014. Keep in mind that Arkansas is historically not a good bet away from home.

The Razorbacks are just 25-55 ATS over their last 18 road games against an opponent with a winning home record. Arkansas is also a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 against the Big 12 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games off a home win by 10 or more points (average loss by 12.2 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand is 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 home games against a team with a winning road record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the SEC (already beat Alabama 84-74) and 8-2 in their last 10 overall against a team who has won more than than 60% of their games. All these trends add up to a massive 71% (142-59) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Long Beach State -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team out of the Big West, but Long Beach State should have no problem making easy work of Nevada. The Wolfpack are in a big rebuilding phase this season after losing their top 3 scorers, including the Mountain West's second-leading scorer in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg). Nevada comes in having lost 4 straight, including a 24-point loss at Nebraska-Omaha last time out.

Long Beach State has 4 starters back from last year and a number of their top reserves. This 49ers team has played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point, having already faced the likes of BYU, Xavier, Kansas State, UCLA Washington and Xavier a second time. Long Beach is 4-4 with wins over Kansas State and Xavier, but what really stands out is how they have been competitive in most of their losses. They lost by just 5-points at BYU, 14 at UCLA and 10 on a neutral court against Washington.

I look for the 49ers to come out extremely motivated in their first home game since Nov. 21 and that should lead to a blowout win that has them easily covering this large spread. Long Beach State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nevada is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Long Beach State!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz +

This is a great situation to back the Jazz at home as an underdog. Utah comes in having lost 6 straight, but those losses have come against the likes of the Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets. The Jazz are desperate for a win and I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight against the Raptors.

While Utah is highly motivated, Toronto finds themselves in a horrible spot. The Raptors knocked off the Kings 117-109 last night in a shootout in Sacramento and will have no rest as they turnaround and face Utah tonight. On top of this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, this will be the Raptors 3rd road games in the last 4 days. With Toronto missing one of their best players in DeMar DeRozan, I just don't see them playing up to their potential, especially with a huge home game on deck against the Cavaliers Friday.

Toronto is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they covered the spread. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (22-7) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Spurs -

The Spurs don't seem to be suffering any sort of hangover after winning the title. After a shaky 2-3 start, San Antonio has gone 11-1 over their last 12 and are currently riding a 8 game winning streak.

The Spurs already knocked off Brooklyn by 12-points at home earlier this season and the Nets were fortunate that it wasn't a much bigger blowout. San Antonio shot 51.9% from the field, while Brooklyn connected on just 37.4%. The Nets are just 3-4 at home and I just don't see them being able to keep this one within single digits.

San Antonio has failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games, which is important to note. The Spurs are a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons when they come in having failed to cover in 3 of their last 4. San Antonio is also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing each of their last 2 as a road favorite and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 8 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 84% (36-7) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Iowa +

I believe the Hawkeyes are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Tar Heels. Iowa's only two losses this season have come against Texas and Syracuse and keep in mind that they were just a 4-point dog to the Longhorns and a 2.5-point favorite versus Syracuse. This Iowa team didn't play anywhere close to their potential in either of those games.

There's no question that North Carolina is the more talented team, but Iowa's length inside and stingy defense should give the Tar Heels problems. North Carolina has not done a good job of protecting the basketball, committing 49 turnovers in their last 3 games. Iowa thrives on forcing mistakes and I believe those turnovers are going to keep Iowa in this game and it wouldn't come as a huge shock if they pulled off the upset. This is a much better Hawkeye team than they get credit for.

There's a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Tar Heels. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who allowed 25 or less in the 1st half of their last game against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 15 or more points are just 13-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets +

This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls.

Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night.

The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year on William & Mary +

The Tribe are showing big time value here in this in-state rivalry showdown against Richmond. William & Mary enter on a 5-game winning streak with the only loss on the season come at Florida in the opener. The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-3 with their only two wins coming against High Point and Radford.

William & Mary lost 3 starters from last year, but got back First-Team All CAA guard Marcus Thornton and CAA Freshman of the Year Omar Prewitt. Thornton is averaging 17.0 ppg so far in 2014 and Prewitt isn't far behind at 12.2. Both of these guys can light it up from the outside and that's a big concern for Richmond, who is allowing opponents to connect on 39.1% from the 3-point line. The Spiders are down this year with the losses of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams and simply should not be laying this many points. William & Mary isn't just good enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.

Richmond is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 60 points or less in their last contest and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. William & Marry is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a win by 6 points or less.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Underdogs with an average offense (67-74 ppg) against an opponent with a poor offense (63-67 ppg), after allowing 65 or less in 4 straight games are 48-20 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tribe. Take William & Mary!

5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -

The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series.

Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season.

Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Indiana -

I believe we are seeing the Hoosiers undervalued at home in this one, due to their upset loss to Eastern Washington last week. Indiana bounced back with a 87-79 win over UNC Greensboro and I look for them to be all business when they take the floor against Pittsburgh. It's not like the Hoosiers haven't shown they can step up against better teams, as they knocked then No. 22 SMU at home 74-68 back on Nov. 20. Pitt has lost at Hawaii 70-74 and got beat badly in the Maui Invitational by San Diego State 57-74.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the Panthers are not at full strength. Leading returning scorer Cameron Wright is out with a foot injury, leaving Pitt with just two starters on the floor from last year. Without Wright it's going to be hard for the Panthers offensively, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Assembly Hall.

Indiana is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games with a line of +3 to -3, while Pittsburgh is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Big 10. These trends combine to form a 77% (33-10) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

Georgia comes into this game off back-to-back losses against No. 10 Gonzaga (76-88) and Minnesota (62-66) at the NIT Season Tip-Off. I think it has the Bulldogs laying a favorable number on the road against Chattanooga, who they annihilated last year at home by 31-points (87-56). The Mocs have already lost by 44-points at Wisconsin and 22 at Butler this season. They also come in off a 69-77 loss at Kennesaw St, who lost by 47 at Syracuase and 34 at Cal.

Not only do those two losses have Georgia undervalued, it's going to have them highly motivated when they take the floor tonight. All this adds up to the Bulldogs winning here by double-digits without any problem. Georgia is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games after playing their last contest as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.

We also find a nice system in play, as road teams from a major 1-A conference against a team from a weak 1-A conference are 65-30 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

The 76ers are showing some great value here as a 13.5-point home underdog against the Spurs tonight. San Antonio will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played yesterday in Boston. Expect Popovich to be looking to manage minutes with another road game on deck Wednesday and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the regulars got the night off.

Philadelphia on the other hand is going to lay everything they have on the line in this one. Not only do they have some revenge on their mind after a 25-point loss at San Antonio earlier this season, the 76ers want to avoid the worst start in NBA history, which is 0-18 by the Nets in 2009-10. While I don't think even the Spurs resting their players and a max effort by Philadelphia will be enough to get them a win, I do it resulting in a much more competitive game than what this line would indicate.

Keep in mind that Philadelphia lost at Dallas earlier this season by 53-points on Nov. 13. They just played the Mavericks at home in the rematch and lost by a final of just 103-110. The 76ers have kept it within 13-points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Adding to this is that Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against an opponent who has won more than 60% of their road games.

We also see a strong system in play. Home underdogs of 10 or more that who are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, who are off a cover they lost outright as an underdog are 32-8 ATS since 1996. That's a 80% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

4* NBA Game of the Month on Suns -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Suns at home against a Magic team that hasn't been nearly as bad as what people anticipated, but Orlando has been awful against the West on the road. The Magic have dropped 19 straight road games against the Western Conference and are in a major slump right now. Orlando has dropped 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming by at least 15 points.

The big key here is that the Suns aren't aren't going to be overlooking this game after getting embarrassed by 25-points last time out against the Nuggets. Good teams tend to bounce back from a bad showing like that. Since 1996, teams who are averaging 103+ points/game are 156-84 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

Phoenix is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a losing road record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 72% (47-18) system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on UNI -

UNI is showing some great value here laying less than double-digits at home against Richmond. The Panthers have opened up the season 6-0 with impressive wins of late against Virginia Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42). The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-2, but it's not surprising to see this team struggle out of the gates with the departure of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams. These two both were out at the end of last year and Richmond went just 2-6 down the stretch to finish 19-14. The big key here is that there's simply not a enough respect given to these Missouri Valley teams' homecourt edge. Not to mention UNI is loaded this year with all 5 starters back, plus the addition of Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four redshirt freshmen.

Richmond is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northern Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the A-10. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

I expect to see the 76ers come out and play as hard as they have all season tonight against the Mavericks, who handed them a 53-point loss in Dallas back on Nov. 13. While this game means a lot to Philadelphia, the Mavericks figure to have a hard time getting motivated for this one, especially considering the spot. Dallas just played a big time road game at Toronto last night, which has them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. The Mavs are also playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th since last Friday. The 76ers on the other hand are fresh off 2 days rest.

Philadelphia hasn't won a game this season, but they have been a lot more competitive here over their last 3 games. They lost by just 8 at New York, 10 to the Trail Blazers at home and just 8 at home to the Nets.

Adding to all of this is a solid system. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won or more of their last 10 games are 203-128 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the 76ers! Take Philadelphia!

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on West Virginia -

The No. 21 Mountaineers should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against Charleston. Even though we aren't far into the season, each of these teams have played both George Mason and Connecticut. The Mountaineers beat George Mason 91-65, while the Cougars barely escaped with a 61-60 victory. West Virginia knocked off UConn 78-68, while Charleston lost to the Huskies 57-65. That right there really says a lot about how much more talented the Mountaineers are and adding even more value here is that this game is at home for West Virginia.

Charleston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, while West Virginia is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game committing 15 less turnovers than their opponent. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Creighton -

The Bluejays weren't expected to be this good this early after losing 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Creighton has had 5 different players lead the team in scoring in their 5-0 start and the scary thing is they have not shot the ball anywhere close to what they are capable of, especially from the outside.

Ole Miss also lost a big time player from last year in guard Marshall Henderson (19.0 ppg). Unlike the Bluejays, the Rebels really look like they are missing their star from a year ago. Ole Miss got up set in their home opener against Charleston Southern. While they have since won 3 straight, they edged out Troy by just 10 and barely escaped with a 6-point home win over Northern Arizona, who lost by 33 to Xavier.

Creighton is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games, 8-1 in their last 9 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last games. These trends combine to form a 80% (47-12) system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Hawks -

Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. The Hawks are 5-2 at home this season, while New Orleans is just 3-4 on the road. What I like here is Atlanta is going to be extremely motivated off a tough loss at home to the Raptors last time out and have responded well in this spot. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home.

It's also worth noting that this is expected to be a very high-scoring game with a total currently sitting around 206 points. These are not games that the Pelicans have fared well in. New Orleans is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total set at 200 or more points and have ost these contests by an average of 10.1 ppg.

There's also a great system in play suggesting a fade of the Pelicans. Underdogs off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 6-25 ATS since 1996. That's a 81% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Arizona -

Arizona is showing great value here against undefeated San Diego State. The Aztecs are getting all kinds of respect after back-to-back impressive wins over BYU (92-87) and Pittsburgh (74-57), which has this line a lot lower than it should be. Arizona is the far superior team and will have the best players on the floor in sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and freshman Stanley Johnson. It's also worth noting that these two teams played twice last year including a matchup in the Sweet 16. Arizona won both of those contests by more than 5 points. Adding to this is they no longer have the services of Xavier Thames who scored 44 points in the two games against the Wildcats.

Another big key here is that while both of these teams are extremely talented on the defensive end of the floor, Arizona has the better offense and that should allow them to create the separation needed to cover this spread. The Wildcats come in shooting 50% from the field against teams who are only allowing opponents to make 43.7% of their attempts, while San Diego State is hitting on just 42.7% vs teams allowing 40.4% shooting. Take Arizona!

3* Florida/Georgetown NCAAB Main Event on Georgetown -

This is a great spot to go against Florida, who are dealing with some serious injury problems right now. The Gators are expected to have just 6 scholarship players available against Georgetown. The injuries have clearly hampered them. In their last two games they have lost outright at home to Miami as a 8-point favorite and needed overtime to escape with a 61-56 overtime win at home against ULM as a 20.5-point favorite. The fact that the Gators are still ranked No. 18 and will be going up against an unranked opponent, has them overvalued again. While Georgetown is favored, I believe they should be an even bigger favorite. The Hoyas are a well-coached team under John Thompson III and are expected to be more like the team that started 11-4 and not the one that ended last year 7-11.

There's a strong system backing a play on Georgetown here. Favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more starters returning than their opponent are 40-12 ATS in the first 10 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 77% system in favor of the Hoyas. Take Georgetown!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Thunder -

The books have missed the mark in this one. Oklahoma City may come into this game having lost 6 straight, but I'm expecting a max effort tonight in a big revenge spot against the Jazz. The Thunder lost 81-98 on the road to the Jazz back on Nov. 18 and that a long with their losing streak has them undervalued at home.

One of the big reasons that I like Oklahoma City in this spot, is that this week the team has seen both Durant and Westbrook return to practice. Both could be on the floor as soon as Friday's home game against the Knicks. Just seeing these two back healthy is going to serve as a big emotional lift, it also means that a lot of these guys who have been filling know their roles are about to be diminished, which should have them playing as hard as they have all season to show they deserve to keep getting playing time going forward.

Not only do the Thunder figure to be the more motivated team, they should have a big advantage defensively in this one. Oklahoma City is allowing just 89.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 40.7% shooting at home, while the Jazz are giving up 104.0 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 48.3% on the road.

The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series and the Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to OKC. Thunder are also 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning % below 40% and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (25-3) system in favor of the Thunder! Take Oklahoma City!