3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kansas State -

Kansas State is being way undervalued at home due to the fact that they come into this game off 3 straight losses, all of which have come inside conference play. Needless to say the Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated to get their first conference win. While Kansas State is going to lay everything they have into this game, Texas Tech could find it hard to get up for this matchup. The Red Raiders just played their hearts out in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas with the 10-point home loss to the Jayhawks coming just 3 days ago. 

The thing to keep in mind with Kansas State's poor start to conference play, two of their defeats came on the road to Texas and Oklahoma. The other a 4-point home loss to currently No. 10 ranked West Virginia. Adding to this is the fact that the Wildcats two non-conference losses both came against elite teams, losing on a neutral court to North Carolina and at Texas A&M. Add it up and 4 of their 5 defeats have come against teams currently ranked inside the Top 15. 

Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a road game where both teams scored 75 or more points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Texas Tech on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Kansas State! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -

The Cavaliers are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite. Virginia is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, extending their home winning streak to 13. They have also won 33 of their last 34 at John Paul Jones Arena. While the Hurricanes enter having won 8 straight and are 13-1 overall, their only true road game this season was against Nebraska, which they only won by 5 points. Keep in mind Nebraska is a bottom feeder in the Big 10. 

Adding even more incentive to this game for Virginia is the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers were favored in both of those games and are a dominant 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average of 13.9 ppg. 

We also find a strong system backing the Cavaliers based on their resent road defeats. Home favorites off 2 or more upset losses as a road favorite are 87-42 (67%) ATS since 1997. Take Virginia! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* Ohio St/Indiana NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Ohio St +

Ohio State is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Hoosiers. While Indiana comes in with an impressive 13-3 record and 3-0 mark in conference play, this is not the same caliber a team compared to just a week ago. That's because the Hoosiers recently lost second leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. You could see the impact of his loss in the near defeat at home against Wisconsin (59-58). 

Ohio State is flying under the radar right now, largely due to a poor start to the year, which saw them open 2-4 with 4 straight losses. That included defeats to the likes of Texas-Arlington and Louisiana Tech. They have since gone 9-1 with their only loss at UConn and they are currently riding a 7-game winning streak and fresh off an impressive 65-56 win at Northwestern, which is better win than people think. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Ohio State won this game outright.

Buckeyes are 34-19 ATS in their last 54 off an upset win as an underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites in a game involving 2 strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game are just 52-96 (35%) ATS after scoring 60 or less over the last 5 seasons. Take Ohio State!  

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing some great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Hurricanes. That value is a result of Florida State having lost their last two games at Clemson and at home to North Carolina. This is a very young and talented team that is not only capable of covering this big spread, but beating Miami outright. 

The Hurricanes are an impressive 12-1 on the season, which is also playing into this inflated line. The thing that you have to keep in mind with Miami's strong start, is the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. Their lone loss came at home to Northeastern as a 16-point favorite, which is a good indicator that this is not an elite team. Last year Miami only won 81-77 as a 8.5-point home favorite and this is a far superior Florida State team than the one they fielded a year ago. 

Seminoles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a conference home loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a total set at 150 to 159.5 points. Miami is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a conference win by 10 or more points and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Florida State!

4* Hornets/Clippers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Clippers -

The Clippers are quietly going about their business in impressive fashion, despite not having the services of star forward Blake Griffin. LA has won 7 straight and covered the spread in each of their last 6. What really stands out is that 6 of the 7 during their winning streak have come on the road. The lone home game was a 31-point rout of the 76ers.

I don't see the Clippers slowing down at home against a struggling Hornets team that has lost 5 straight and are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. Charlotte has also lost 6 straight on the road with all 6 coming by at least 7 points (5 by 9 or more). Another huge factor here is the success that the Clippers have had in this series. LA has won 3 straight and 9 of 10 overall with the only loss coming in Charlotte. 

Hornets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones come into this game off a 76-69 win at home against Texas Tech, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite. Baylor on the other hand enters off a 79-62 blowout win at home over Oklahoma State as a 9-point favorite. I believe this has created some exceptional value on Iowa State in a huge revenge spot. 

Last year the Cyclones lost both meetings against the Bears, falling 73-74 at Baylor and 70-79 at home. Iowa State brought back most of the core players from last year and you can be assured this is a game they have had circled on the calendar. Baylor has played well at home, but have really struggled on the road losing by 7 at Oregon, 19 at Texas A&M and 28 at Kansas (only 3 true road games). Iowa State has one of the best homecourt advantages in college basketball and I fully expect them to win this game going away. 

Cyclones are 11-4-1 ATS in last 16 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games, 5-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off a home win, while Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a mere 0-6 ATS off a home win by 10 or more points. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Virginia -

Virginia comes into this game off a 68-70 upset loss at in-state rival Virginia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite. Needless to say the Cavaliers are going to be pissed off from that performance and will be out to make a statement in a huge rebound spot against Georgia Tech, a team they destroyed in recent years. Virginia won 64-45 at Georgia Tech in 2014 and last year crushed the Yellow Jackets 57-28 at home. 

Any time you get an elite team like the Cavaliers off an upset loss, chances are they are going to come back with one of their best efforts in their next game. In an earlier upset loss at George Washington, Virginia followed it up with a 82-57 win on a neutral site against Bradley. Georgia Tech is a quality team, but not on the same level as the Cavaliers. Keep in mind this is a team that has lost badly to the likes of Villanova (52-69) and Georgia (61-75). They are 8-1 at home, but that's due to an easy schedule. 

The Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Take Virginia! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. 

Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. 

Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Cavaliers -

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Cavaliers on the road, but I look for Cleveland to make easy work of the Timberwolves in tonight's showdown on ESPN. Whenever LeBron James is involved in a nationally televised game, more times than not he brings his best regardless of the opponent. That's a big problem for Minnesota, as they simply don't have the talent to keep this competitive over 48 minutes. 

With Kyrie Irving getting more and more comfortable and starting to play up to his potential, Cleveland has the looks of a team that is ready to go on a serious run to start out 2016. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games and were a bad beat away from being 8-3-1, as they should have covered last time out against the Wizards. 

Minnesota is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 games and 6 of those 8 losses have come by double-digits. The Timberwolves also lost badly in both meetings against the Cavs last year, losing 104-125 at Cleveland and 90-106 at home. Minnesota is just 3-15 ATS in their 18 home games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing a game as a favorite. Take Cleveland! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!  

5* Cincinnati/SMU NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Cincinnati +

The Mustangs come into this game with a perfect 13-0 record and are overvalued because of it. SMU recently lost a key piece of their team, as guard Keith Frazier left the team prior to Saturday's game against South Florida. While the Mustangs won the game 72-58, they came no where close to covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. 

I think Frazier's departure is not only going to hurt them on the floor, but also have a negative impact mentally on this team. Even if he was still with the team, this is a lot of points to be giving a talented Cincinnati team. The Bearcats come in at 11-4, but have 3 losses by 7 points or less, including 2 by just 2-points to the likes of Butler and Iowa State. 

Cincinnati has all 5 starters back from last year's team that won both meetings against the Mustangs. The Bearcats won 56-50 at home as a 1-point dog and 62-54 at SMU as a 6.5-point dog.  Needless to say, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cincinnati won this game outright. 

SMU is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against strong offensive teams that are scoring 77+ points/game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 3 straight at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Take Cincinnati!  

3* Ohio St/Northwestern ATS Main Event on Northwestern -

The simple fact that Northwestern is favored in this game really says a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about these two teams. The Wildcats have opened up 13-2 with their only 2 losses coming against elite teams in North Carolina and Maryland. This Northwestern team is the real deal and I look for them to take down the Buckeyes on their home floor tonight. The Wildcats are 9-1 at home this season. 

Keep in mind that Northwestern has played Ohio State tough at home in recent meetings, despite losing each of the last 4 meetings. All 4 of those defeats were by 10 points or less with 3 coming by 2-points or fewer. This is the best Wildcats team during this stretch and arguably the worst team the Buckeyes have fielded over the 5 year period. Ohio State has a big win over Kentucky, but lost by 20 in their only true road game against Connecticut and struggled to put away Illinois at home in their last contest, escaping with a 75-73 win. 

Buckeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games win they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when listed with a line of +3 to -3. Wildcats on the other hand are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after playing their previous game at home and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit home loss. Take Northwestern! 

5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans -

The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup.

The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. 

New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. 

Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Wolves OVER 

I'm expecting a shootout in Minnesota tonight between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two teams have played twice in the last month. They combined for 219 points at Denver on 12/11 and then 212 at Minnesota on 12/15. Given how these two teams like to get up and down the floor and the little effort they give defensively, I see no reason why this game won't finish with 210+ points. 

Denver is scoring 103.2 ppg and giving up 109.6 ppg over their last 5, while Minnesota is scoring 99.7 ppg and allowing 102.9 ppg on the season. OVER is 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 with a total of 200 to 209.5 points and 16-6 in their last 22 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game. OVER is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Vegas Insider on Pacers -

While Orlando has been one of the big surprises early on this season, the Magic come into this game in a major slump. Orlando has lost 3 straight and haven't been competitive in any of the defeats, losing by 12 at Washington, 25 at Cleveland and 26 at Detroit. A big reason for that is the absence of starting point guard Elfrid Payton, who won't be in action again tonight. Keep in mind that top backup C.J. Watson is also out with an injury, leaving Orlando without a true point guard. It has a lot to do with their offense only scoring 91, 79 and 89 points in their last 3 games. 

While the Pacers have dropped 3 of their last 4, they could easily be riding a lengthy winning streak. All 3 losses come by 4-points or less and two of those were on the road against two of the top Eastern Conference teams in the Bulls and Heat. With Paul George back to playing at an elite level (31.7 ppg over last 3), I just don't see Orlando being able to keep pace offensively with the Pacers, who are going to come out inspired. 

Indiana has 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series, which alone is enough reason to back the Pacers at basically a pick'em. We also see the Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 when coming in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

Villanova comes into this contest off 4 straight blowout wins, defeating Delaware by 30, Penn by 20, Xavier by 31 and Creighton by 14, which has resulted in a drastically inflated line against a talented Seton Hall team that has won 7 straight, which includes a win over Wichita State and 20-point victory at Marquette. 

With a huge road game on deck against Butler and having just played to big games against Xavier and Creighton, I look for Villanova to come out a bit flat against Seton Hall. I still expect the Wildcats to win this game, but I look for it to be much closer than the spread would indicate.

Keep in mind that Seton Hall has been playing lockdown defense of late, allowing just 61.7 ppg and Villanova has had some problems offensively early on. 

Wildcats are just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 after two straight games where they made 50% or more of their shot attempts, while the Pirates are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 road games after playing their last game at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record. Take Seton Hall! 

4* Kings/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs -

The Mavericks are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Kings. Dallas is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back games at Miami (82-106) and at home to the Pelicans (98-105).

Those two losses are a big part in why we are getting a favorable number to back the Mavericks, as well as the fact that the Kings are coming in off two blowout wins over the Suns (142-119) and Thunder (116-104). Beating Phoenix at home isn't nothing to get excited about and their win over Oklahoma City came with Durant sidelined. Big key here is the Kings are just 5-11 on the road this season and are a mere 3-21 in their last 24 meetings with Dallas. 

Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 60+ points in the first half of their last game and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in last 15 off a SU loss, 11-4 ATS last 15 versus Western Conference and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Syracuse -

I really like the value we are getting with the Orange as a mere 5-point home favorite against Clemson. Syracuse is being undervalued here due to coming into this game off back-to-back ugly losses on the road to Pittsburgh and Miami, plus the fact that they haven't covered in 3 straight games. 

Clemson was able to pull off a big upset at home in their last game, defeating Florida State 84-75 as a 2-point dog, which followed a cover as a 15.5-point dog at North Carolina. Prior to that they got destroyed by 23 at Georgia. This is also a team that has lost at Minnesota, who is way down this year. With 3 straight huge home games on deck against Louisville, Duke and Miami, this is simply a horrible spot for the Tigers against a highly motivated Orange team. 

Syracuse is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by over 13.0 ppg, while Clemson is 1-4 on the road, getting outscored by nearly 8.0 ppg. Tigers are also 2-13 ATS in their last 15 off an upset win over a conference rival, 3-9 ATS last 12 vs team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games on Tuesday nights. Take Syracuse! 

5* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina -

South Carolina has quietly put together a perfect 13-0 start to the 2015-16 season and I look for them to be extremely motivated when they take the floor for their SEC opener tonight against Auburn. Keep in mind that the Gamecocks went 9-3 in non-conference play last year and ended up starting out just 1-6 in SEC play, so there's no concern here for me with South Carolina coming in too confident. 

Another huge factor here, is Auburn is missing some key players with injuries. The Tigers will be without 3rd leading scorer T.J. Dunans and could also be without the services of T.J. Lang, who is questionable with a concussion. Dunans is a big loss, as he's one of Auburn's best all-around players, as he averages 12.4 ppg to go with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. It's also worth nothing the Tigers have struggled against quality teams this year. All 5 losses have come by 7 or more, including recent defeats by 18 to Harvard and 12 to Hawaii. 

Gamecocks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, winning these by an average of 17.4 ppg. Gamecocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers/game and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 versus teams who average 77+ points/game. Take South Carolina! 

4* Oklahoma/Kansas NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Oklahoma +

Both of these teams come in riding 12-game winning streaks. Oklahoma is 12-0, while the Jayhawks are 12-1 with the only loss coming in the opener against Michigan State. While Kansas has the advantage of playing at home, this is a lot of points to be laying against a Sooners team that is more than capable of going into Lawrence and pulling off the upset. 

You could actually argue that Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule to this point and they have really been impressive against elite teams. The Sooners have a beat Wisconsin by 17, Villanova by 23, Creighton by 13, Washington State by 26 and most recently held on for a 87-83 win at home against a very good Iowa State team. 

Each of the last 5 meetings in the series have been decided by 8-points or less, so you can really see the value we are getting here with the Sooners. Kansas is also a team that is consistently overvalued in conference play, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 games. We also see that the Sooners are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 against elite teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Oklahoma! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight between the Pistons and Magic. Both of these teams are going to be hungry for a win after a poor stretch. Detroit has lost 4 of 5, while the Magic have dropped 2 straight. Both of these teams can get after it defensively when they want. Orlando only allows 98.7 ppg and the Pistons are giving up just 97.7 ppg. 

A huge key here is that both teams will either be without their starting point guard or have them at less than 100%. Orlando's Elfrid Payton is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Sunday and keep in mind that backup C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Detroit's Reggie Jackson is also questionable with an ankle injury and he's the one guy this offense can't afford to lost. Jackson leads the team with 19.9 ppg and 6.4 apg. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Pistons last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 4-1 in their last 5 against the Southeast. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics -

The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston. 

Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston! 

4* Utah/Cal NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Utes. While Utah is the only team that's currently ranked in this matchup, Cal is every bit as talented as the Utes and won't be long before they are mainstays in the Top 25.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 10-0 on their home floor this season and just made easy work of a very good Colorado team by 14-points in their Pac-12 opener. Utah on the other hand lost at Stanford as a 5-point road favorite. This will now be the Utes second straight road game in a span of just 3 days. That's not an easy task to overcome, especially against a really good team like Cal. 

Golden Bears are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games when playing on their 3rd game in a week and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Utah on the other hand is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Cal! 

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Raptors -

These two teams recently played in Chicago, which the Bulls won 104-97. That's set up some great value here on the Raptors in a big revenge spot on their home floor. These two teams have pretty significant home/away splits. Toronto is 11-5 at home compared to 10-8 on the road. Chicago is 14-5 at home compared to just 5-7 on the road. Raptors rebounded with back-to-back home wins over the Wizards and Hornets after their loss to Chicago and will be extremely motivated to finish off their homestand with another victory, as they get ready to play 5 straight on the road. 

Bulls are a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their previous game, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Chicago. Teams who average 83 or more shots/game that have held their opponent to 39% or less from the field in 2 straight games are just 20-51 (28%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Toronto! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -

This is a great spot to back the Pacers, as they are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses, including a 116-120 loss at home to the Bucks in their last contest. That was just the 5th home loss for Indiana on the season, as they are 11-5 at home.

Detroit comes in off an easy wi at home against the Timberwolves, but that's not say much given how poorly Minnesota has been playing. Prior to that the Pistons had dropped 3 straight and I think they are still adjusting to life with Brandon Jennings back from injury. Detroit is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. 

Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against division opponents. Pacers are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against Georgetown. Marquette was embarrassed on their home floor 63-83 by Seton Hall in their last contest, snapping a 9-game winning streak. The Hoyas on the other hand won rather convincingly in a 70-58 victory at DePaul as a 4-point favorite.

I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line due to the last time these two teams took the floor. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had a similar poor performance at home in a 61-89 loss to Iowa earlier this season and they responded with wins over LSU and Arizona State on a neutral court in their next two games. 

Georgetown was undervalued against a DePaul team that wasn't as good as their record, so I wouldn't read too much into that easy win and cover. Keep in mind this team had failed to cover each of their previous 4. They also lost back-to-back home games against the likes of Monmouth and UNC-Asheville. 

Hoyas are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when coming off a cover and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. The Golden Eagles are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Marquette! 

4* Clippers/Pelicans NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. While Los Angels comes in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 3, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Clippers. Los Angeles will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing last night in Charlotte, but this will be the Clippers 5th road game in the last 7 days. With it being New Year's Eve and LA scheduled to return home after this game, I don't see the Clippers being interested at all in playing this contest. 

Pelicans on the other hand are a team that's desperate to turn their season around and simply can't afford to drop any games like this at home, especially when they have such a big advantage in rest. New Orleans has had 2 days off leading up to this game and will be just their 2nd game in 5 days overall. Keep in mind the Clippers are also playing without All-Star Blake Griffin. 

The Clippers and Hornets combined for 239 points last night and it was the 3rd straight game in which LA has scored at least 100 points. The Clippers are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a game where 225 or more combined points were scored and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more in 3 straight games. Take New Orleans! 

3* Xavier/Villanova Early Bird NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Villanova - 

Villanova has owned the Big East the past two seasons and they aren't about to just hand it over to the likes of Xavier or Butler. I look for the Wildcats to come out and make a statement on their home floor against the undefeated Musketeers. 

Villanova is 10-2 with their only two losses coming against Oklahoma on a neutral floor and at Virginia. Those are two of the elite teams in college basketball right now. Xavier has some quality wins, but most of their damage has come at home. They were very fortunate to win 78-70 at Wake Forest in their last game, as they trailed by as 18 points. 

Villanova is worthy of being a Top 10 team right alongside Xavier and I believe they will be by seasons end. The Wildcats have won and covered 5 straight in this series and are a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. Each of the last 3 times they have hosted the Musketeers they have been at least a 8-point favorite. I just think there's too much value here Villanova. 

Wildcats are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 when playing against a team with a winning record, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 when listed as the favorite. Take Villanova! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Blazers -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Blazers to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but it's for good reason. Denver is in an absolutely horrible scheduling spot. The Nuggets were going to have a hard enough time bouncing back from last night's home game against the Cavaliers, which they really came out and played hard against the reigning Eastern Conference champs.

Not only do they have to take on Portland on no rest, but they find themselves in the dreaded spot of playing their 6th game in 9 days. On top of that, they have a game against the Warriors on deck, which is a team everyone is looking ahead to on the schedule. I'm not expecting the Nuggets to show any interest at all in playing this game. 

Portland on the other hand is coming in off back-to-back wins, including a 105-76 win at home against the Cavs as a 7.5-point dog and 98-94 win at Sacramento as a 9-point dog. Both wins came without Damian Lillard and there's a good chance he returns tonight, as he almost played in each of the last two. Denver on the other hand doesn't figure to have leading scorer Danilo Gallinari or point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, making it that much harder on them giving the scheduling spot. 

Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. It's also worth noting that they are 10-1 in their last 11 home games against the Nuggets. Take Portland! 

5* Big East Game of the Month on Georgetown - 

We are getting some great value here with the Hoyas as a mere 3-point road favorite against DePaul, as Georgetown is 13-1 against the Blue Demons in the last 14 meetings. The big reason for the low spread here, is this matchup comes on the heels of the Hoyas failing to cover 4 straight games, while DePaul enters off an impressive 82-61 win over George Washington as a 6-point dog. 

The thing to keep in mind with the Blue Demons most recent win, is this is a team that had previously lost 3 straight, including home losses to Arkansas-Little Rock by 22 points and Northwestern by 8 points. DePaul simply caught fire against George Washington, shooting 55.4% from the field. That sets them up in a great spot to fade, as the Blue Demons are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. 

Georgetown has had some problems with inconsistency this season, but their struggles have come against lesser teams. The Hoyas went on the road and only lost by 4-points to Maryland and lost a heartbreaker by 2-points against Duke on a neutral court. They also have a 71-61 win over Wisconsin and 79-72 victory against Syracuse. I have little doubt the Hoyas will come to play in this one and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning home record. Take Georgetown! 

5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day. 

The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days. 

Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Richmond +

The Spiders are showing some great value here as a road dog against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 9-1 on the season, but haven't really beat anyone and have greatly benefited from playing 7 of their first 10 games at home (yet to play a true road game). The Red Raiders have been feasting on bad teams, as their last 5 games have come against the likes of Sam Houston State, Tennessee-Martin, South Dakota State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Arkansas-Little Rock. 

It's going to be difficult for the Red Raiders to adjust to the huge upgrade in competition and Richmond is more than capable of winning this game going away. The Spiders have already won outright on the road against Wake Forest 91-82 and have impressive wins over California (94-90) and Northern Iowa (82-67). 

Texas Tech is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 when they come in off 3 straight easy wins by 10 or more points, while the Spiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Richmond! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on California -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Golden Bears to be laying at home against Davidson, but I look for California to have no problem covering this number. The Wildcats come in with an impressive 8-2 record, but that's because they have played a very soft schedule in non-conference play. Davidson has faced 2 legit opponents and haven't been able to keep them respectable. The Wildcats lost by 33-points at North Carolina and by 25 on a neutral site against Pittsburgh. I look for a similar type of domination for the Golden Bears at home in this one.

Keep in mind that Davidson is having to travel completely across the country for this matchup, which is only going to make it that much harder on them to keep this close. Cal may not be ranked, but this is a team that's loaded with NBA talent and one that nearly upset Virginia on the road in their last contest. The Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 18.4 ppg. 

Davidson is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take California! 

4* Raptors/Bulls NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Bulls -

The Bulls are showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Chicago comes into this game off a 111-118 loss at Dallas, a game they let get away late. The Bulls however, have been money when playing at home against top level teams and I look for them to have no problem taking down the Raptors at the United Center tonight. 

Chicago has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series, including all 4 meetings last year. A big reason for that is Jimmy Butler, who can cause problems for Toronto leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 26.6 ppg since 12/9. Butler also causes major problems defensively for the Raptors, as he's averaging 23.7 ppg on 62% shooting in his last 3 against Toronto. 

Bulls are 11-5 at home this season and have already racked up wins at home against the likes of Cavaliers, Thunder, Pacers, Spurs, and Clippers. Many of those games were prime time matchups and that's what we have here, as this game will be televised on NBA TV. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Northern Iowa -

Both of these teams find themselves in a tough spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a blowout loss last night in Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Washington State got throttled by Oklahoma 88-60 and UNI lost 68-52 to Hawaii. I believe the Panthers are the much more equipped team to bounce back on no rest and are also the more battle-tested and talented team in this matchup. 

The Cougars come in with an overall record of 7-3, but they haven't really played anyone outside of Gonzaga at home and Oklahoma last night. They lost both of those games rather convincingly and it's also worth noting they lost at Idaho. This is a team that clearly struggles away from home. Northern Iowa has TWO wins over teams ranked in the Top 5 in the country. They beat No. 1 North Carolina 76-67 and recently knocked off No. 5 Iowa State 81-79. Another thing I like about the Panthers is they respond well off loss. Northern Iowa is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS off a defeat this season and that includes their win over Iowa State off a 21-point defeat at New Mexico. 

Washington State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral court games with a total of 140 to 149.5. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral court games and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a loss by 10 more points. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +

While Memphis is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, I actually think it will be the Wizards who are the more tired team in this matchup. Washington has been decimated with injuries of late and had just 8 players available in their game Monday against the Kings. All 5 starters played at least 33 minutes with Dudley and Temple both going over 40 minutes. Even Sessions played 31 minutes off the bench. I just don't think the Wizards are going to have much left in the tank for this game. 

These two teams played back on 12/14 in Memphis and the Grizzlies won convincingly 112-95. What really stands out is Memphis shot 56.4% from the field, so clearly there's a matchup problem defensively for Washington against the Grizzlies. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a similar type of score, even with the Wizards getting this one on their home court. 

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest. Washington is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Take Memphis! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cal +

The Golden Bears are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit underdog against Virginia. Not a big surprise here to see the Cavaliers overvalued after back-to-back blowout wins over No. 14 West Virginia (70-54) and No. 12 Villanova (86-75). Even though Virginia knows Cal is a dangerous team, it's going to be tough for them to get up for this game after laying it all on the line in their last two. 

California had a couple of bad performances against San Diego State and Richmond, but those are the only two hiccups on their resume this season. The Golden Bears also come in playing with a ton of confidence, riding a 5-game winning streak. This is there first chance going up against a Top 25 team and I'm expecting their best effort of the season tonight. 

It's also worth noting that Cal plays with the same defensive intensity as Virginia. The Golden Bears are only giving up 65.4 ppg and opposing teams are shooting just 37.7% against them. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Golden Bears. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are shooting 36.5% or better from 3-point range and coming off 2 straight games where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts are just 17-43 (28%) ATS against teams who shoot 32-36.5% from long-distance. Take California! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hornets/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets come into this game off a 107-97 win at home against the Clippers as a 2.5-point dog and have now won 9 of their last 13, which includes 5 straight wins at home. Even with Houston's strong play of late, the Rockets are still aren't getting much respect from the books given their disappointing start to the season.

Charlotte has been one of the surprises early, but the Hornets are struggling of late. Charlotte lost 101-109 at Washington against a depleted Wizards team that is missing several key players with injuries. It was the Hornets 3rd loss in their last 4 games and they are now just 4-7 on the road, compared to 11-4 at home. Houston has been a difficult team for Charlotte to figure out, as they have lost 9 straight in the series, including 5 straight by at least 10-points. It's also worth noting that they have won 5 straight at home in the series by at least 13 points.

Simply too much value here on Houston, as we basically need them to just win the game to cover this spread. Rockets are 26-12 ATS in their last 36 after a win by 10 or more points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a day of rest. Take Houston!

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Notre Dame -

The Fighting Irish shouldn't have any problem covering this big spread against Youngstown State on Monday. Notre Dame is going to be motivated off a 73-80 loss to Indiana on Saturday and are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss. 

Youngstown State is simply an awful team. They lost 46-105 at Michigan on Saturday, which was their 3rd loss this season by 22 or more points. They also recently lost by 31 at Purdue. Big key here is Youngstown State will be playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days, which is going to make it that much harder for them to keep this game respectable. 

Youngstown State is just 10-26 ATS in their last 36 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Take Notre Dame! 

3* NBA Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Heat -

Miami comes into this game with a 11-5 record at home compared to just 4-5 on the road. Needless to say the Heat play their best basketball in front of the home crowd. This is important to note, as Miami should be extremely motivated off a 94-108 home loss to the Raptors in their last contest, which they gave up a double-digit lead in the 3rd quarter. 

Portland is definitely a team they should be able to beat rather easily. The Blazers are struggling right now, as they are just 2-5 over their last 7 and will be playing their 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. Portland is just 5-11 away from home and this is a bad matchup for the perimeter oriented Blazers. Portland relies heavily on the outside shot and will be facing a Heat team that leads the league in 3-point defense, holding teams to just 31.4% from long distance. It's also worth noting the Blazers are just 1-7 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference, while Miami is 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, including a 11-2 record in their last 13 at home. 

Portland is 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than 60%. The Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team who has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Miami! 

3* Davidson/Pitt NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Pitt -

The Panther are showing some exceptional value here as a relatively small favorite against Davidson. The value here comes from the fact that this will be a neutral site game and that the Wildcats are 7-1 overall. The perception here is that we have two equally matched teams, as Pittsburgh is 8-1. 

However, a closer look at the schedule shows the Panthers are the far more impressive team. Davidson has feasted on an easy schedule, which is evident by the fact that they have been a double-digit favorite in 6 games and no line was posted in another due to inferior competition. The only time this team faced a legit opponent was North Carolina and they lost by 33 points. 

We can also see the gap in these two teams by looking at their common opponent in Eastern Washington, who they both played at home. Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington by 33-points (84-51), while Davidson only won by 10 (96-86), despite shooting a ridiculous 60% from the field. 

Great system in play backing the Panthers, as neutral court favorites who are coming in off a home win where the team failed to cover as a favorite and are playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 107-56 (66%) ATS since 1997! Take Pittsburgh!

3* NBA Situational ATS Line Mistake on Rockets -

Houston is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Rockets come in off a 107-87 win over the Lakers on Thursday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. The Clippers on the other hand are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd in the last 4 days.

LA also finds themselves coming off a huge game at San Antonio last night, which they invested a lot of energy, as their core 4 of Griffin, Jordan, Paul and Redddick all played at least 33 minutes. Clippers aren't a deep team and I look for them to struggle with the pace that the Rockets play with, especially with this game being playing in Houston. 

Another key factor here is the Rockets have had their fair share of success in this series and many will recall they eliminated LA from the playoffs last year. Houston also won 109-105 at Los Angeles back on 11/7. The Rockets have had their struggles early, but are playing much better of late. Houston is 8-4 over their last 12 and have won 4 straight at home. 

Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 or more points in 3 straight games, while the Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a road win and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Drake + 

I really like the value we are getting with the Bulldogs in a in-state matchup that will be played on a neutral court. While Drake is just 4-6 overall, they have been competitive in almost every game. Out of their 6 defeats, 4 have come by 8-points or less and they haven't lost one by more than the number listed here. 

Iowa is a good team, but I think this is a tough spot for the Hawkeyes. This will be their first game since losing 82-83 at Iowa State on 12/10, a game where they blew a 20-point lead and had a major collapse in the final minutes. Those kind of losses are difficult to come back from and adding to this is there figures to be some rust with the long lay off off. Keep in mind that while Iowa is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings against Drake, the Bulldogs have gone 10-5-1 ATS in these matchups. 

Iowa is also a team that typically underperforms in neutral site games, as they are just 3-11 in their last 14 on a neutral site. Hawkeyes are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away from home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Take Drake! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +

My money will be on the Broncos as a decently priced road dog when they travel to take on Nevada tonight. Santa Clara got off to a miserable start, as they opened the season 0-7. However, they have bounced back nicely and won 4 straight, which includes a 62-45 win over Boston College as a 6-point dog.

You also have to keep in mind the Broncos played a tough schedule early and are actually the more battle-tested team in this matchup. You might also remember they took a very good Arizona team to the wire, losing 73-75 as a 24-point dog. 

Nevada is 7-3, but their wins have not been impressive to this point and the Wolf Pack were dealt a big blow leading up to this game, as talented big man A.J. West left the team. West was averaging 9.6 ppg, but his biggest impact game on the defensive end, where he was leading the team with 7.7 rpg and nearly 2 blocks a game. His loss is going to throw off the chemistry they had going with their rotation and leave them thin inside. 

The Wolf Pack come into this game off a 79-71 win at home against Drake, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Nevada is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 5-21 ATS in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Santa Clara! 

5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics -

I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight. 

Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games. 

The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall. 

The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

The Knicks come into this game having won 2 straight after a miserable 2-8 stretch and I look for them to come out extremely motivated to get a win against the 76ers. New York already defeated Philadelphia 99-87 at home earlier this season and that was a more lopsided game than the final would suggest, as the Knicks went into the 4th quarter leading by 23 points. New York is now 4-1 against the 76ers over the last 2 seasons and all 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. 

The key here is Philadelphia is getting some love from the books for playing at home, but the 76ers have little to no home court advantage. In fact, Philadelphia is 1-10 SU and 3-7 ATS at home this season. A big reason why I like the fade of the 76ers tonight, is we find Philadelphia in a brutal scheduling spot, as this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days and could have their eyes looking ahead to Sunday's showdown against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. 

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a cover, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a losing home record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 against division opponents. Philadelphia on the other hand is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing home record, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 division games. Take New York! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Texas Tech -

South Dakota State comes into this game with an impressive 9-1 SU record and perfect 7-0 ATS mark (not all games played had lines), which includes a recent 84-70 win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog. I believe it has the Jackrabbits way overvalued here in what is going to be there biggest test of the season.

Keep in mind that Texas Tech is also off to a strong start, as they come in 6-1 with their only loss being against a very good Utah team on a neutral court. The Red Raiders also made easy work of Minnesota, beating the Gophers 81-68 on a neutral court. 

A big key to this matchup will be defense and I look for Texas Tech to have a big advantage on that side of the ball, especially playing at home. The Red Raiders come in allowing 66.4 ppg against opponents that on average have scored 77.2 ppg. While South Dakota State is only giving up 64.3 ppg, their opponents are only scoring 66.4 ppg on average. 

The Red Raiders are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference home games and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. We also find strong system in play, as home teams with a line of +3 to -3, who are coming off a win by 15 or more points against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET TEXAS TECH! 

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nets +

We are seeing a big overreaction here with the Heat coming into this game off a 100-88 blowout win at Atlanta, while the Nets enter off a 82-105 blowout loss at home to the Magic. Brooklyn has lost 2 straight overall, but haven't dropped 3 in a row since they opened the season 0-7. Miami on the other hand has not won back-to-back road games all season. 

The Nets are clearly going to be motivated playing at home off that embarrassing home loss. Keep in mind they recently followed up a 98-114 defeat at home to the Warriors with a 110-105 win over the Rockets as a 5-point home dog. As for the Heat, they could find it difficult to get up for this game. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Heat also could be looking forward to a 4-game home-stand. 

Miami is just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 off a road win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road underdog. The Nets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after losing 2 out of their last 3, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Brooklyn! 

5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER 

The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. 

UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! 

5* VCU/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech -

The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against VCU. The Rams come into this contest off a 71-76 loss to Florida State and are now just 1-3 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. Georgia Tech has played their best basketball at home, as the Yellow Jackets are 4-1 and outscoring opponents on their home floor by 16.4 ppg. 

The Yellow Jackets have really been impressive on the offensive end at home, as they come in averaging 87.4 ppg and are shooting 49.2% from the field at home. VCU only averages 69.2 ppg on the road and are shooting a mere 40.8% away from home. Defensively these two teams are pretty equal, but I would give the slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, as they are holding opponents to 41.9% shooting against them at home, where the Rams are allowing 45.5% on the road. Georgia Tech should also control the glass, as they are outrebounding opponents by 12 rpg, while VCU is only outrebounding opponents by 2 rpg. 

The Rams are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* Cavs/Celtics NBATV ATS Annihilator on Cavs - 

The Cavaliers come into their showdown against the Celtics off their most impressive performance of the season, as they went into Orlando last Friday and destroyed the Magic 111-76. However, Cleveland is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and I don't see them being overvalued here, as Boston is getting a lot of love right now. The Celtics have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games and gained a lot of respect with their double-overtime loss against the Warriors and win the very next night on the road against a red-hot Charlotte team. 

With Iman Shumpert playing for the first time this season in the win over the Magic and Kyrie Irving expected back during their upcoming 3-game home stand, I get the feeling the Cavaliers are on the verge of going on a big run and want to be playing their best basketball when they go on the road next week to face the Warriors on Christmas Day. 

I look for LeBron James and the Cavaliers to treat this as a statement game against the Celtics and we can expect to see the best out of Cleveland with them coming off 3-days of rest and this being a televised game on NBATV. 

Boston is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Cavaliers are 41-21 ATS in their last 62 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system, as Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off an upset win as a road dog are just 103-160 (39%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Cleveland! 

5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets -

It might not seem like much, but with a win Houston can move above .500 for the first time this season. I believe it's a big deal for the Rockets, who have put their ugly struggles behind them and started playing up to their potential. Houston is 7-2 over their last 9 games a very profitable 5-1 ATS in their last 6. 

One of the reasons we are seeing a small line here is the fact that the Denver has already beat the Rockets twice this season. They won 107-98 as a 6.5-point home dog on 11/13 and 105-85 as a 10.5-point road dog on 10/28. That double-revenge works more in the favor of the Rockets than the Nuggets and it's important to note that both of those victories came prior to Houston's recent surge. 

Denver has historically been a good home team, but that's not the case this season. The Nuggets are just 4-7 at home and were fortunate to win their last home game in a 111-108 overtime win against Minnesota (trailed by 15 at half). Denver is just 3-9 in their last 12 and all 3 wins came by 3-points or less (easily could be riding 12-game losing streak). 

While the Nuggets haven't played since Friday, they are just 3-14 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing with 2 days of rest. Denver is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-18 in their last 26 as a home dog. Adding to this, we see that favorites revenging 2 losses as a favorite are 133-81 (70%) ATS when coming off a home win since 1996. Take Houston! 

3* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies -

This Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Wizards. Memphis is being way undervalued coming into this game off back-to-back losses, while Washington is being overvalued due to covering 2 straight, including a 114-111 win at Dallas as a 6.5-point dog on Saturday. 

While Washington was able to beat the Mavericks on the road, this is a team that's poised to take a step back with the recent injury to Bradley Beal, who has missed the last two. Beal is a major part of the offense, averaging 19.8 ppg and one of their biggest 3-point threats at 38.9% and a team best 2.2 made 3-pointers per game. Keep in mind the Wizards are also without Drew Gooden, Alan Anderson and Nene right now. Tough spot for Washington's depleted roster, as this will be their 3rd straight on the road and 6th game overall in the last 9 days. 

Memphis is a team that has had some ugly losses, but they continue to bounce back. The Grizzlies back-to-back losses is their only losing streak in the last month. Grizzlies are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, but are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Wizards are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a SU win and 3-18 ATS in their last 21 off a win by 6-points or less. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Situational Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams just played on Friday and I cashed in on the UNDER 204 with ease in a 94-90 win by Oklahoma City. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, there's still a ton of value on the UNDER in this one. 

Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4 at home. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last 2 and 7 of 11 overall. These two teams also have a history of low-scoring games, as each of the last 6 in the series have finished below the mark. Having just played 2 days ago against each other only adds to the likelihood of another low-scoring game, as both teams are very familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

UNDER is 11-3 in Utah's last 14 against a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Thunder's last 6 against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!  

3* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Nebraska 

The Cornhuskers have one of the best homecourt advantages that not a lot people know about and we are finding Nebraska showing great value here as a pick'em at home against Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are simply being way undervalued off an ugly 16-point road loss at Creighton.

Keep in mind that Nebraska's 4 losses this season have all come against quality opponents in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton. The only loss at home is to the Hurricanes by 5-points as a 5.5-point underdog. Rhode Island is 6-3 but have yet to play a true road game and have already lost at home twice as a favorite to Valparaiso and Providence. They also have a 23-point loss on a neutral site against Maryland. 

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 in a game with a low total set at 130 to 139.5 points, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games (1-4 L5 vs team w/ winning home record) and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Cornhuskers are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home after playing a game as a road dog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite or pick'em of 3 points or less. Take Nebraska! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Colorado -

Colorado is showing great value here as a 5-point favorite against BYU. The Buffaloes come into this game 7-1 with their only loss come against a very good Iowa State team, which they only lost by 6-points on a neutral site. Colorado is 5-0 at home and are winning at home by an average score of 86.0 to 67.6. 

BYU comes in with a respectable 6-2 record, but their strong start has been aided by an easy schedule to this point. Their only real test was at Utah and they lost that game 75-83 and it wasn't that close, as they trailed by 23 points at the half. The Cougars also lost their only other true road game at Long Beach State. 

The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off 5 or more consecutive wins, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the WCC. BYU on the other hand is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15+ points at the half of their last contest. Take Colorado! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight between these two Central Division rivals, as both of these teams can really get after it on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 120+ points during a 3-game losing streak, the Pacers responded by allowing just 83 in a 13-point win over the Heat last night. I look for Indiana to carry over that effort on the defensive side of the ball against a Pistons team that only averages 98.4 ppg. 

Detroit has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 95 or less and are giving up just 96.2 ppg at home on the season. The Pistons will be especially motivated in this one, after losing at home to the Pacers by 12 earlier this season. Keep in mind that earlier meeting saw a combined 176 points in a 94-82 Indiana win. 

UNDER is 41-26 in the Pacers last 67 games off a home win, 24-9 in their last 33 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Pistons last 6 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take the UNDER 201! 

4* Celtics/Hornets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Hornets -

The Celtics gave the Warriors all they could handle in a 119-124 double-overtime loss at home last night. As impressive as that performance was, it has Boston in line for a major letdown on the road in a back-to-back set against a red-hot Charlotte team that comes in having won 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. 

The Hornets have been especially good at home this season, where they are 10-3 and outscoring opponents by 8.2 ppg. A big reason for their success at home is their defense. Charlotte is allowing just 96.3 ppg at home on the season and have their last two opponents to 82.5 ppg and 37.7% shooting. 

Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games when coming off 2 straight games in which they made 9 or more 3-pointers. Take Charlotte! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +

The Bearcats are showing great value here against the Musketeers as a decently priced road dog on Saturday. Cincinnati is 8-1 and their only loss of the season is a 2-point defeat to Butler. Xavier has opened an impressive 9-0 and are winning by an average of 19.2 ppg. However, this will be the Musketeers biggest challenge of the season. On top of that, this is a big rivalry game. 

Xavier comes in averaging an impressive 83.2 ppg, but will be going up against a stingy Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 58.4 ppg against teams who on average score 71.2 ppg. The Bearcats are also allowing opponents to shoot just 36.1% from the field and are outrebounding opponents by 10 boards a game. 

The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games overall, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Cincinnati! 

4* NBA Western Conference ATS Heavy Hitter on Suns -

I backed the Suns on Wednesday in an unfortunate non-cover where Phoenix won 107-104 as a 4-point favorite, despite going into the 4th quarter leading by 11. As tough as that loss was to swallow, I'm firing back with the Suns at home against the Blazers.

Phoenix will be playing with a lot of confidence after 2 straight wins and need to keep it going, as they were just 1-8 in their previous 9. There's a good chance the Suns get back a big piece tonight, as Tyson Chandler has been upgraded to questionable after missing the previous 7 games with a hamstring injury. 

A big key here is the Suns are catching the Blazers in a bad spot scheduling wise. Portland will be playing their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. On top of this, Phoenix has shown they matchup well with the Blazers, as they won 110-92 at home on 10/30 and the very next night went to Portland and won 101-90. Overall the Suns are 4-1 SU at home against the Blazers over the last 3 seasons and Portland is just 4-9 away from home this year. 

Blazers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 off a road loss, 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off 2 or more consecutive road defeats and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Phoenix! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Thunder/Jazz UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high for this matchup. Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games. One of the reasons we are seeing a high total here is the Jazz have gone over in 4 of their last 5, but they come in off a game against the Knicks where they allowed just 85 points at home for a combined score of 191. 

These two teams played at Utah earlier this season and combined for 200 points and that was with the Thunder shooting a ridiculous 54.5% from the field and 40.7% from behind the 3-point line. Oklahoma City also had a 40-point outburst in the 2nd quarter. The game still went UNDER the posted total of 201 and that's now 5 straight in the series and 3 in a row at Utah where they have gone UNDER the total. 

A key factor here is that we have the Thunder coming into this game playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, as they hosted the Hawks last night. It's also OKC's 3rd game in 4 nights and 5 different players played 30+ minutes last night. The Thunder aren't going to have the legs to push the pace in this one and tired legs typically leads to poorer shooting from the outside. 

UNDER is 10-0 in the Thunder's last 10 after scoring 100+ in 2 straight games and 8-0 in their last 8 after 2 straight wins. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Jazz's last 13 against a team with a winning record and 11-4 in their last 15 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pelicans -

It's been about as bad a start to the season as you could imagine for the Pelicans, who surprised just about everyone when they snuck into the Western Conference playoffs last year. A big reason for New Orleans' struggles has been injuries and that's where the value lies in the Pelicans laying just 2.5-points at home against the Wizards. 

New Orleans is almost back to full strength. Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole returned recently and they are expected to get back Kendrick Perkins, who has been sidelined since October. While the return of Evans and Cole didn't pay off immediately, the Pelicans did have an impressive 114-108 win at home over the Cavaliers last Friday. While they followed that up with a 93-111 loss to the Celtics, that's the only game New Orleans has played in the last 7 days. The Pelicans are fresh, hungry and extremely motivated. 

While New Orleans is getting healthy, the Wizards are dealing with numerous injuries right now, most notably in the front court. Nene and Drew Gooden are both expected to be out and Kris Humphries is questionable. Being thin in the front court is not what you want against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans. I look for Davis to dominate this game and let's not forget the Wizards are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. 

Washington is 11-22 ATS in their last 33 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games played on Friday night. Take New Orleans! 

4* Bulls/Clippers TNT ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

Chicago is showing some great value here as a home dog against the Clippers. The Bulls come into this game having lost 3 straight and all 3 losses have been a result of poor play in the 4th quarter. The Bulls were outscored 30-21 in the final period of a 6-point loss to the Hornets, gave up 42 to the Suns to turn a 16-point lead into a 2-point loss and last night were outscored 25-30 at Boston. 

This is the opportune time for Chicago to bounce back playing at home in a prime time matchup on TNT. When matched up with the best teams in the NBA at home the Bulls have delivered. Chicago has a 97-95 win over the Cavaliers, 104-98 win against the Thunder, 96-95 win against the Pacers and 92-89 win over the Spurs. I expect that trend to continue here against the Clippers. 

Los Angeles comes in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall but a lot of their recent success has to do with a soft schedule. Their 6 wins during this stretch have come against the Pelicans, Timberwolves (twice), Blazers, Magic and Bucks. The lone loss was a 8-point defeat at home to the Pacers and prior to this recent stretch they had lost 8 of their previous 11. This is also a tough spot for the Clippers, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of 4 days, and come in off no rest after playing last night in Milwaukee. 

Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off 3 straight games that went over the total, who are averaging 102+ points/game against an opponent that allowing 98-102 ppg are just 6-27 (18%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

4* Bulls/Clippers TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

I think we are seeing an inflated total here due to the fact that both teams come in having eclipsed the total in each of their last 3 games. The key thing to note is that these games have barely gone over for both teams. in the Clippers 3-0 over run two of those games only went over by 6 points or less. As for the Bulls, their last 3 games have all gone over by a combined 7.5 points and all 3 can be pinpointed to poor defensive effort in the 4th quarter, as Chicago has allowed 30, 42 and 30 in the final period of their last 3 games.

With this being a prime time game on TNT and these two teams being two of the more respected clubs in the NBA, I think we are going to get max defensive effort from both sides. I especially expect to see the Bulls get after it on that side of the ball on their home floor after losing 3 straight.

When the Bulls have hosted whats considered to be an elite opponent, it's resumed in a low scoring game. Chicago beat Cleveland at home 97-95, Oklahoma City 104-98, Indiana 96-95 and the Spurs 92-89. All 4 of which went under the total set for that game by at least 6 points.

UNDER is 8-0 this season in Bulls' games when they come in having played their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games and 13-2-1 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 5-1 in their last 6 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER!  

5* Non-Conference Game of the Year on Suns - 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Suns as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Magic. Phoenix has lost 8 of their last 10 games, but will be taking the floor with a ton of confidence after a thrilling 103-101 win at Chicago last time out, where the Suns outscored the Bulls by 18 points in the 4th quarter for the improbable win. 

While Phoenix's 2-8 record of their last 10 games is concerning, we can pinpoint their poor play to a brutal schedule, as 9 of their last 11 games have come on the road and one of their home games was against the Warriors. This is an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix off that big win in Chicago and they are catching the Magic in a horrible spot. 

Orlando is simply getting too much respect here due to the fact that they have won 6 of their last 7 and are 6-0-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Magic are primed for a letdown in what will be their 5th straight road game in the last 9 days. Adding to this is the fact that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back set that saw them play last night in the thin air of Denver. They pulled out an ugly 85-74 win, but you could see the signs of fatigue. I believe they have nothing left in the tank and will get blown out by a hungry Suns team tonight. 

Suns are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 off a road win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Orlando on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 75 points and 0-1 ATS this season after scoring 85 or less. Take Phoenix! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Creighton -

The Bluejays are showing big time value here as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. Creighton is in a prime bounce back spot after dropping back-to-back games in heartbreaking fashion. The Bluejays lost 77-79 at home to Arizona State and then fell 65-68 at Loyola-Illinois in their most recent contest. I don't see Creighton losing 3 straight, especially with this game being played at home and the back-to-back loses have provided a very favorable line to back the Bluejays. 

Nebraska has a couple of impressive loses of late against Cincinnati (61-65) and Miami (72-77), but those strong showings were a result of those teams not shooting well. The  Bearcats only shot 38.9% against the Cornhuskers and the Hurricanes made just 41.4%. I don't see that being the case here with Creighton coming into this game having made 52.3% of their field goal attempts at home. It's also worth noting that in Nebraska's only other true road game this season, they allowed Villanova to shoot 49.2% in a 24-point blowout loss. 

Nebraska is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games as an underdog or pick'em and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing their previous game at home. The Bluejays on the other hand are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 2 of their last 3 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take Creighton! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Toledo -

The Rockets are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point road favorite against Detroit. Toledo comes into this game having won 2 straight, including a big 71-69 road win at Wisconsin-Green Bay as a 2-point underdog. I look for the Rockets to carry over that momentum against a Detroit team that is picked to finish behind Wisc-GB in the Horizon League. 

Defense is one thing that travels well in all sports and the Rockets come into this game allowing just 71.5 ppg and are holding opposing teams to just 42.9% shooting from the field. I look for their ability to get stops to be the difference in this game, as the Titans don't play any defense. Detroit comes into this game allowing a ridiculous 84.2 ppg and have allowed 95+ on 3 separate occasions. Opposing teams are shooting 46.3% from the field and a ridiculous 43.9% from behind the 3-point line. 

Toledo is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games off a road win and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset win as a road underdog. The Rockets are also a dominant 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Toledo! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Hornets UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair between these two Southeast rivals on Wednesday as first place in the division is up for grabs. Miami is coming off a rare high-scoring game in a 103-114 loss at home to the Wizards on Monday. It was only the 4th time this season that a game involving the Heat finished over the total, as the under is 15-4 in their 19 games to this point. 

It also marked the first time that Miami eclipsed the 100-point mark in 8 games and they barely did so despite shooting a ridiculous 59.4% from the field. At the same time the Heat allowed the Wizards to shoot 50% from the field, only the 2nd time all season they have allowed a team to shoot 50% or better. The only other time was against the Kings back on 11/19 and they followed that up by allowing 91 points and 37.8% shooting in their newt game. 

Not only is this a prime spot for Miami to bounce back with a strong defensive effort, but we can also expect to see the Heat offense struggle here against a stingy Hornets defense that is allowing just 97.6 ppg and holding teams to 43.9% shooting at home. 

The last time these two teams faced off in Charlotte, they combined for a mere 154 points, which was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings at Charlotte that they combined for 185 or less. UNDER is 11-1 in Heat's last 12 after a home game where both teams scored 100+ points and 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Suns NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Bulls +

I really like the value we are getting with the Bulls in this spot. Chicago comes into this game off back-to-back losses, the first time this season they have lost consecutive games. The Bulls can't be happy about either defeat. They were outscored by 9-points in a 6-point loss to the Hornets on Saturday and then got outscored by 18 in a 2-point loss to the Suns on Monday. Needless to say the Bulls are going to be extremely motivated when they take the floor tonight against the Celtics. 

Boston has been playing quality basketball of late with 5 wins in their last 7 games, but I think this is going to be a tough spot for the Celtics to match the intensity of the Bulls. Boston is returning home after a 5-game road trip, putting them in a prime spot to relax in their first game back at home. The other big concern here for the Celtics is their game on deck against the Warriors, as every team wants to be the ones that end Golden State's perfect start to the season. 

Bulls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games after playing their previous game at home, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams from the Atlantic and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Chicago! 

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

These two teams combined for 236 points in the Grizzlies 122-114 win at home back on Nov. 16 and it's resulted in an inflated total in the rematch. That was only the second time in the last 10 meetings that these two teams combined for more than 200 points. 

One of the big reasons that we consistently see lower-scoring games between these two teams, is the familiarity they have of one another. This will be the 40th meeting between these two teams since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, which is the most of any two teams in the league during this stretch. 

While the first meeting saw a lot of offense, I think both defenses come to play this time around. Memphis has held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and the Thunder have allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that both teams come in not shooting the ball well, especially from long distance. The Grizzlies are just 24.9% from the 3-point line in their last 4 games and OKC is only hitting 29.6% in their last 4.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Grizzlies last 17 home games off a home win, 17-5 in their last 22 after a close win by 3 points or less and 15-5 in their last 20 with a total set at 200 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 road games against a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Northern Iowa -

The Panthers come into this game off an ugly 15-point loss (67-82) at Richmond on Saturday and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a small road favorite against George Mason in a huge bounce back spot. The defeat snapped a 5-game winning streak for Northern Iowa, which included that big 71-67 home win over then No. 1 North Carolina. 

George Mason has a couple of surprising wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma State, but outside of that they have been inconsistent. The Patriots have a number of ugly losses on their resume, losing to the likes of Colgate, Mercer, Manhattan and Towson State.

Defensively, George Mason comes in allowing just 63.9 ppg, but that has a lot to do with who they have played, as the Patriots opponents thus far are only averaging 69.9 ppg. Northern Iowa has one of the more efficient offenses in the country, as they are averaging 79.9 ppg and shooting 51.6% from the field and 43.6% from long distances. I just don't see George Mason being able to slow down the Panthers and do enough here offensively to keep this game close enough to cover. 

Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing their previous game on the road and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after 3 straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers . The Panthers are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 against teams who allow 64 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against teams who average 64 or less points per game. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

The Pelicans and Celtics should have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. Boston comes in averaging 102.7 ppg on the season and are allowing 100.5 ppg on the road. New Orleans is scoring 110.1 ppg at home and giving up 111.7 ppg at home. 

Both teams come in having scored at least 100 points in 3 straight games and the Pelicans have allowed 100+ in 7 straight. Boston has played good defense at times, but this is not a good spot for them. The Celtics will be playing their 5th straight road game and have two huge home games on deck against the Bulls and Warriors. 

OVER is 34-16 in Boston's last 50 road games with a total set at 210 or more points and 13-1 in the Pelicans last 14 home games after scoring 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

4* Oklahoma/Villanova NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Oklahoma +

I really like the value here with Oklahoma catching points in this neutral site showdown between two Top 10 teams that have yet to lose on the season. Oklahoma has had some cupcake games along the way to their 5-0 start, but they also have signature wins on their resume. The Sooners won 84-78 at Memphis to open the season and embarrassed Wisconsin 65-48 at home. 

While Villanova has been equally impressive in route to their 7-0 start, this will be the Wildcats biggest challenge to date and I think the Sooners have the offensive fire-power to pull off the upset. Oklahoma comes in averaging a ridiculous 88.2 ppg on 48.9% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from long distance. Villanova isn't far behind at 79.0 ppg, but are only 30.9% from long distance and will be facing an Oklahoma defense that is holding opponents to just 25.4% shooting on 3-pointers. 

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. 

We also find a strong system in playing backing the Sooners. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off 2 straight covers as a favorite against an opponent off 2 straight covers as a double-digit favorite are 30-8 (79%) ATS since 1997. Take Oklahoma! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 191.5

These two teams combined for 194 points in an earlier meeting this season in Cleveland and both teams are coming off games in which the final score was more than the total listed for this matchup. This might have some looking to play the over, but I think the smart play here is to take the UNDER. 

Those that have watched Miami know that the Heat are built on defense. Miami only averages 96.3 ppg offensively, but are allowing just 92.6 ppg on the defensive side of the floor. They are holding opponents to just 41.0% shooting from the field. The Heat should be able to impose their will defensively in this one, as they catch a tired Cavaliers team playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set that saw them play an overtime game last night at New Orleans. 

Cleveland lost to the Pelicans and have no dropped 2 straight. LeBron James does not take lightly to losing and certainly doesn't want to lose against his former team and close friends. However, James played 45 minutes last night and knows that his team's only chance here is to turn this into a defensive battle, as they don't have the legs to get into a shootout. 

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 road games when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 4-1 in their last 5 when the starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes in the previous game when playing on 0 days rest. UNDER is also 9-2 in Miami's 11 home games and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Illinois -

I think we are getting some decent value here on the Fighting Illini at home against an inferior opponent. Illinois comes into this game off back-to-back losses against two top notch programs in Iowa State and Notre Dame. They failed to cover the spread in both contests, but were competitive in both, losing by just 11 to Iowa State and 5 to Notre Dame. 

Needless to say the Illini are going to be highly motivated for a win and Western Carolina is a team I think they can run up the score on. We have already seen the Catamounts lose by 25 at Cincinnati and 23 at South Carolina. Their offense really struggled in both of those games, as they shot just 37.1% from the field against the Bearcats and 28.4% against the Gamecocks. That's a good sign that they just don't have the talent to play with the big boys and while Illinois isn't an elite power 5 team, they should have no problem winning here by at least 12 points. 

Western Carolina is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 1-7  ATS in their last 8 non-conference games (rarely have lined games). Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Illinois! 

5* Cavs/Pelicans NBA on ESPN Vegas Insider on Pelicans +

Cleveland lost 85-97 at home to the Wizards on Tuesday and the perception here is that they are going to bounce back with a win, which has resulted in an inflated line and some great value here with the Pelicans at home in a prime time game on ESPN. 

The Cavaliers haven't been playing well of late. They are just 5-4 in their last 9 games and each of their last 2 wins have been less than impressive. They won by a final of just 95-90 at Charlotte and 90-88 at Brooklyn. 

New Orleans comes in having lost 4 straight, but there's reason to be optimistic about this team turning the corner and getting back to playing like they did a year ago when they made the playoffs. The Pelicans recently got back Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole, two big pieces of the offense that can take pressure off Anthony Davis. Look for New Orleans to lay everything they have into this game and I fully expect them to get the win. 

Cleveland is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite, while the Pelicans are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after losing 4 or 5 of their previous 6 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take New Orleans! 

4* Ark/WF NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Arkansas +

Love the value we are getting here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against Wake Forest. Arkansas is just 3-3 and have yet to secure a signature win, which is going to have them coming out extremely motivated here against a Demon Deacon team that already has wins over Indiana and UCLA. 

The Razorbacks have been competitive in all 3 losses, as each has come by 10-points or less. Wake Forest on the other hand hasn't really blown anyone out. The Demon Deacons largest margin of victory is 8-points at Bucknell. They only beat Maryland Baltimore County by 5 at home, Rutgers by 1 on the road and lost at home to Richmond 82-91. It's also worth noting that these two teams played last year at Arkansas and the Razorbacks won convincingly 83-53. I know it's not the same teams, but you can see the value. 

Wake Forest last game was at Rutgers and the Demon Deacons are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after playing their last game on the road. Wake Forest is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the SEC. Take Arkansas! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Jazz UNDER 191

The books have set the total too high for Thursday's matchup between the Magic and Jazz. A big reason for that is these two teams recently played in Orlando on 11/13 and the two combined for 195 points with a total of just 189.5. It was only the 2nd time in the last 5 meetings that these two went over the total and each of the last two games played in Utah have finished under the mark. 

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-scoring game. While the Magic are giving up 99.6 ppg on the season, they have been much better of late on that side of the ball. Orlando has held each of their last 4 opponents to 93 or less. Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are scoring just 94.5 ppg at home. The Jazz are also very good defensively, allowing just 94.0 ppg and we can expect to see Utah really get after it defensively tonight with that recent loss to the Magic fresh on their minds. 

UNDER is 9-2 in the Magic's last 11 off back-to-back upset wins as an underdog and 3-1 this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is 3-0 this season after the Jazz allow 105 or more points in their previous game, 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight and 4-0 this season when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

3* Heat/Thunder TNT Total Dominator on UNDER

Not surprised here to see the books set a big number for the total of this nationally televised matchup between the Heat and Thunder tonight. A big reason for that is the Thunder come in averaging 108.9 ppg and have scored 100+ in 5 straight. 

As good as Oklahoma City has been offensively, Miami has been equally good defensively. The Heat come in allowing just 92.5 ppg. Clearly when this team wants to get it after it on the defensive side of the ball, they can shut teams down. I think it's safe to say that given the talent on OKC and this being a nationally televised home game, we can expect to see max effort defensively from Miami. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in Oklahoma City's 6 games this season against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 43% or worse shooting, 6-0 in their 6 games against teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls/game and 5-1 in their last 6 against teams who average 53 or more rebounds. UNDER is 9-2 in Miami's 11 games this season against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots, 8-1 in their 9 against strong free throw shooting teams, making 76% or more of their attempts (don't foul often) and 6-2 in their 8 games against teams who average 99+ points/game. Take the UNDER! 

3* Gonz/Wash St Late Night NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Gonzaga -

This may seem like a lot of points for Gonzaga to be laying on the road against a Washington State team that has started out 4-0, but that's exactly where the value lies in this game. The Cougars are not anywhere close to as good as their 4-0 start might lead on and will be exposed here against the Bulldogs. Keep in mind that Gonzaga is a team many believe is at worst a Sweet 16 club, while Washington State is picked to finish in the bottom three of the Pac-12. 

The easiest way to see the gap here between these two teams is to look at their games against Northern Arizona, who each played at home. Gonzaga won 91-52 as a 25-point favorite, while the Cougars won 82-70 as a 10.5-point favorite.

That game against Northern Arizona is arguably the best team Washington State has played, so this is a huge jump up in competition and one I don't think they are ready for. Keep in mind these two teams have played each of the last two years and the Bulldogs won both by at least 15 points. I don't see any reason to expect a different outcome in this one. Take Gonzaga! 

5* Indiana/Duke Big/Ten ACC Vegas Insider Top Play on Indiana +

Even against a top caliber opponent like Indiana, the books are going to shade the line in favor of Duke, especially at home. I absolutely love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as a double-digit dog against the Blue Devils tonight. Indiana is 5-2, but could just as easily be 7-0. Their two losses, both against quality teams in Wake Forest and UNLV, have come by a combined 7-points. 

Duke's only played 3 legit opponents this season. They lost to Kentucky 63-74 and barely held on for wins against VCU (79-71) and Georgetown (86-84), failing to cover the spread in all 3. Indiana isn't just capable of covering this spread, but I could see them winning this game outright and ending Duke's 15-year non-conference home winning streak. 

Part of the reason we are seeing a big number here is the fact that Indiana is just 2-4 ATS in their last 5 lined games. However, that actually sets them up in a very profitable spot, as the Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that Duke comes in off a 85-52 win against Utah State and are just 2-5 ATS in they last 7 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take Indiana! 

4* FSU/Iowa NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Iowa -

Iowa is showing some great value here as a relatively small home favorite. The Hawkeyes have one of the more underrated home court advantages, as they are 29-8 at home over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 2-0 start to this year. 

After a couple of hard fought losses against Dayton (77-82) and Notre Dame (62-68), Iowa responded with a 84-61 blowout win over Wichita State as a mere 5-point favorite. When the Hawkeyes get their offense going they are extremely tough to beat. Florida State has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot at least 46% from the field and that's concerning given they haven't really played anyone. The Seminoles biggest test so far this season was a neutral court game against Hofstra and they lost 77-82 as a 8-point favorite. 

The Seminoles are a mere 9-21 ATS in their last 30 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite, 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 against a team with a winning percentage over 60% and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 against the Big Ten. Take Iowa! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Pelicans +

While the Pelicans fell 104-113 at home last night to the Grizzlies, I saw some real positive signs from this team, as they built up a 14-point lead against a Memphis team that has been playing their best basketball of the season. I also think we are about to see New Orleans go on a run, as they are getting closer to full strength. They got back Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole last night and Evans responded with a team-high 20 points to go with 10 assists. 

The Rockets managed to pull out a 116-111 win at New York two games ago, but had to overcome a 13-point halftime deficit. They followed it up with a 105-116 loss at Detroit. Houston continues to fall behind big early in games and I have yet to see any kind of signs that this team is back to the form from last year. Opponents have figured out how to pick apart the Rockets defense and I look for the Pelicans to do just that and win this game outright. 

Houston is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite this season and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 following a loss. Pelicans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their previous game and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. Take New Orleans! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Warriors/Hornets UNDER

The books have been forced to set the totals high in every Warriors game, as Golden State has scored at least 100 points in every game. That might have you thinking the over is the smart play in this one, but I think we could see Golden State's streak of 100+ points come to an end tonight. 

Charlotte knows that they can't afford to get into a shootout with Golden State, especially with them missing one of their top scorers in Al Jefferson. The Hornets are going to do everything in their power to slow this game down and make the Warriors work for everything they get offensively. Charlotte has been locked in defensively in their last 2 games, holding the Cavaliers to 95 and the Bucks to just 82. They come in allowing just 97.1 ppg at home and are catching the Warriors in a good spot, playing their 2nd straight on the road and first trip to the east coast this season. 

UNDER is 28-13 in the Warriors last 41 off a road win and 6-2 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 11-2 in the Hornets last 13 when playing with 2 days of rest, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! 

4* Maryland/UNC NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Maryland +

I think we are seeing some exceptional value here with the Terrapins, as North Carolina is getting too much respect here simply for playing at home. I actually think Maryland is the more talented of the two teams and have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset.

The Tar Heels came into the season ranked No.1 and we have already seen them lose on the road to UNI and struggled to put away the likes of Northwestern and Kansas State. I just don't think this team is as good as the hype surrounding them and the fact that they haven't covered 4 straight is a good sing they are consistently being overvalued by the books.

The Terrapins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the ACC, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. North Carolina on the other hand is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 home games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Maryland! 

5* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month on Nets +

Brooklyn is showing great value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Nets have been playing much better basketball since their 0-7 start. While they are just 4-6 since, you have to keep in mind that they have played 7 of their last 10 on the road. They were also competitive in all 6 losses during this stretch and have won all 3 of their home games. 

Phoenix comes in off a 107-102 win at Toronto on Sunday, but are just 3-4 on the road on the season and just 1-4 over their last 5 overall. Tough spot for the Suns to get motivated after a big road win, especially with them missing a key piece in center Tyson Chandler. Brook Lopez should be able to have his way inside for Brooklyn with Chandler sidelined and that's going to open up everything else. 

Another key factor here is the Nets have really been getting after it defensively at home. During their current 3-game winning streak at the Barclays Center they are allowing just 90.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix on the other hand has allowed 100+ in 3 straight and are allowing 106.4 ppg on the road, where opposing teams are shooting just under 47% from the field. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after covering in their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn!