|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-25-20||Clemson +11 v. Louisville||Top||62-80||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAB ACC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clemson +11 -110
I love the value here with the Tigers catching double-digits against Louisville. The Cardinals come in having won 5 straight and that's definitely playing into this inflated number. What gets overlooked in their winning streak, is that 4 of the 5 wins have come by 6 or fewer points, including a mere 4-point win at home last time out against Georgia Tech as a 13-point favorite.
Clemson failed to cover in a 71-68 win at home against Wake Forest in their last game, but the Tigers had covered each of their previous 4 games, including a 79-72 home win over Duke as a 10.5-point dog.
Tigers are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as an underdog and have covered 4 of their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-3-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Not to mention the underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. Take Clemson!
|01-25-20||Clemson v. Louisville OVER 127.5||62-80||Win||100||6 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Clemson/Louisville over 127½ -109
The OVER is definitely worth a look here between Clemson and Louisville. I'm not expecting a shootout by any means, but these two should easily surpass this low number. Only once in Louisville's 8 conference games have they combined for fewer than the total for this game and that was a home game against Pitt back in early December.
It's a similar story with Clemson, who has had just one of their last six conference games fail to reach 139 points. With how Louisville likes to attack in transition and the Tigers willingness to let teams shoot from deep (Cardinals hitting 38% from deep), I see them flirting with 70 points and I think Clemson can definitely keep pace.
OVER has cashed in 5 of the Tigers last 6 overall and is 25-12 in their last 37 as a road dog. OVER is also 5-1-1 in Louisville's last 7 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the OVER!
|01-25-20||Villanova v. Providence OVER 136.5||64-60||Loss||-109||5 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Villanova/Providence over 136½ -109
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's Big East showdown between Providence and Villanova. The Wildcats have got their offensive act together of late in conference play, as they are averaging 78.3 ppg in their last 3 Big East games.
Hard to see them slowing down against a Friars defense that has really struggled against the top teams in the Big East, as they allowed 70 points on 56% shooting to Butler at home and 73 points on 58% shooting at Seton Hall last time out.
Key here is I think we see Providence snap out of their recent offensive funk, which has seen them shoot under 40% in each of their last 4 games. While Villanova's defense was great last time out at home against Butler, they let UConn shoot 49% and DePaul to connect on 48% in their previous two games.
Friars last two were also on the road and that's worth noting as the OVER is 37-16 last 53 after 2 straight road games and 16-6 in their last 22 off 2 straight road losses. OVER is also 68-45 in Villanova's last 113 games as a road favorite and 55-32 last 87 road games off a conference win by 10 or more. Take the OVER!
|01-24-20||Nuggets v. Pelicans -3.5||113-106||Loss||-109||9 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans -3½ -109
Easy play here on the Pelicans laying a short number at home against the short-handed Nuggets. New Orleans failed to deliver in Zion Williamson's debut Wednesday against the Spurs and it just looked like the Pelicans were a bit out of sorts with all the hype around that game. San Antonio is also not a team you want to face in that spot, especially with how well they have been playing.
We saw New Orleans priced very similarly in that game and I just think there's value in this matchup against Denver. Pelicans should only get better going forward and the minutes restriction for Zion should keep increasing.
Nuggets are decimated right now. Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee and Jamal Murray are all out. Plus, you got both Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. listed as question. Not to mention this is Denver's 3rd straight on the road with a big rematch on deck at home against the Rockets looming Sunday. Take New Orleans!
|01-24-20||Celtics v. Magic -1||109-98||Loss||-105||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Magic -1 -105
Orlando is definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Celtics. Books are begging you to take Boston here at this price, especially with the Celtics coming off two massive blowouts, as they followed up a 139-107 win over the Lakers with a 119-95 win against Memphis.
Key here is the Celtics are likely going to be down a few key pieces. We know Enes Kanter won't be available and both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable to play. Orlando is always a tough to team to get up for and the Magic play well at home. They really get after you defensively and like to slow the game way down.
With a big matchup looming on Sunday at New Orleans against Zion and the Pelicans, I think we see Boston go through the motions here and drop a game they probably shouldn't. Take Orlando!
|01-24-20||Kent State v. Buffalo UNDER 156||Top||70-66||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - MAC TOTAL PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kent State/Buffalo under 156 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Friday's massive total in the MAC between Buffalo and Kent State. No question these are two of the better offensive teams in the MAC, but this is just too many points.
Both of these teams rank in the Top 6 in defensive efficiency in the MAC and Kent State is one of the few teams that can slow down Buffalo. Bulls are not a great 3-point shooting team. They are No. 1 in the MAC in 2-pt percentage, yet 11th in 3-pt percentage. That plays right into the Golden Flashes defense, which is No. 2 in the conference in 2-pt percentage defense.
Bulls are coming off back-to-back high scoring games, as they had 86 in a win at Central Michigan and then 90 at home against Western Michigan. That's important to note as the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games after two straight games where they scored 85 or more. UNDER is also 6-0 in their last 6 at home off 4 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER!
|01-23-20||Montana v. Idaho State +6||77-74||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho State +6 -109
I like the value here with the Bengals as a decently priced home dog against the Grizzlies. Most will be running to the ticket window to back Montana here, as they sit on top the Big Sky with a 6-1 record, but I think this is a really tough spot for them on the road against a hungry Idaho State team.
Bengals have already knocked off one of the top teams in the Big Sky at home, defeating Eastern Washington 75-69 as a similarly priced 7.5 point dog. Idaho State is also a great bet when getting points. Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a dog. They have also covered 6 of their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Montana is also 4-14 ATS last 18 off a home win and just 2-9 ATS at home off a conference win. Take Idaho State!
|01-23-20||Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -2||77-80||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Grand Canyon -2 -117
The Antelopes are worth a look here as a small home favorite against Seattle. Grand Canyon is coming into this one riding a wave of momentum off back-to-back road wins over Chicago State and UMKC.
Completely different vibe for the Redhawks coming into this one. Seattle just had their 3-game losing streak snapped in a crushing 67-75 loss at home to New Mexico State, where they were down just 2 with 2 minutes to go.
Redhawks are also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 games when listed as a dog and have failed to cover 4 straight when getting points on the road. Take Grand Canyon!
|01-23-20||Tenn-Martin +8 v. Eastern Illinois||83-95||Loss||-109||11 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tenn-Martin +8 -109
The Skyhawks are definitely worth a look here as a near double-digit road dog against the Panthers. There's just no reason Eastern Illinois should be laying this kind of number. Both of these teams are bad. Panthers are 2-4 in OVC play and the Skyhawks are 1-5.
Thing is Tennessee-Martin is the much better offensive team and should have a big edge at the free throw line, as they ranked 3rd in the conference in free throw rate, while the Panthers are 10th. I just don't see Eastern Illinois being able to pull away enough here to cover this big number and wouldn't be completely shocked if they lost outright.
Panthers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a losing road record and just 1-6 ATS last 7 overall. Take Tennessee-Martin!
|01-23-20||Washington v. Utah +1.5||66-67||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Utah +1½ -111
I really like the value here with Utah as a home dog against the Huskies. Washington has not been the same team since losing point guard Quade Green and this couldn't be a much better spot to buy low on Utah.
Utes comes in having lost 5 of 6 since that big upset win over Kentucky, including a 1-4 start to Pac-12 play, but it's not as bad as it looks. Their 5 losses have come against the likes of San Diego St, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State. The only one of those defeats at home was a mere 5-point loss to a really good Oregon team. In their win they beat Oregon State by 12 and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won here by double-digits.
Utes are 35-17 ATS last 51 at home after 2 or more losses in a row and 16-5 ATS last 21 after failing to cover 3 straight. Take Utah!
|01-23-20||Wizards v. Cavs UNDER 232||124-112||Loss||-110||10 h 21 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wizards/Cavs under 232 -110
I really like the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Cavs and Wizards. Washington is a team that finds themselves in a lot of high scoring games, but this will not be one of them. Wizards aren't going to have much gas in the tank for this one, as they just played last night in Miami in a game that went to OT.
Cleveland won't have any problem playing this game at a slower pace, as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in pace of play. Cavs won't have Brandon Knight for this game, which is a big positive for their defense, as is the expected return of John Henson. Last time out Cleveland scored just 86 points against the Knicks in a game that saw a combined score of 192 with a total of 222.5.
UNDER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-1 in the Cavs last 8 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!
|01-23-20||Florida Atlantic +4 v. Charlotte||Top||68-70||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +4 -109
I love the value here with the Owls as a road dog against the 49ers. I'm confident FAU will not only cover, but win this game outright. Charlotte is simply overvalued right now. The 49ers come in at 4-2 in C-USA play, but all 4 wins have come against teams who are 3-3 or worse in league play. Their only game so far against a team in the top half of the standings was a game at WKU and they got annihilated by a score of 80-63.
FAU is definitely going to be up for this game after losing one they shouldn't have at home against UAB on Saturday. Owls have not lost back-to-back games since dropping two in a row in early November to Miami and Alabama. They also have a nice scheduling edge, playing on 4 days of rest, while Charlotte is on just 2 days of rest and just played two in a row on the road.
Owls are 13-6 ATS last 19 off a loss, 5-1 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take FAU!
|01-22-20||UNLV +5 v. Nevada||72-86||Loss||-105||14 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UNLV +5 -105
UNLV is definitely worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Wolf Pack. The Rebels are on fire right now, as they come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their 6-1 mark in the MWC trails only undefeated San Diego State and is two games clear of the next best team.
While UNLV is surging, Nevada comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win in this stretch coming by a single point at home against a Wyoming team that has not won a conference game to this point.
Rebels also just aren't just winning close games. They are dominating. All 7 wins during their 7-1 run have come by at least 9 points and last time out whooped NEw Mexico 99-78 at home. That's worth noting as the Rebels are 18-7 ATS last 25 on the road after a blowout win by 20 or more. Take UNLV!
|01-22-20||Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 218.5||129-96||Loss||-110||12 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Warriors under 218½ -110
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Warriors hosting the Jazz. Golden State is coming off a game at Portland where they put up 124 points and combined for 253. I just think it has the total here a lot higher than it should be.
Warriors have only eclipsed 110 points twice in their last 10 games and will have a hard time coming anywhere close to that against a good Utah defense that just held the Pacers to 88 points at home in their last game.
UNDER is 14-5 in the Warriors last 19 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 22-9 in their last 31 at home after going over the total in their last game and 12-2 in their last 14 home games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Grizzlies v. Celtics UNDER 232.5||95-119||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Celtics under 232½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Celtics and Grizzlies. Boston will be without one of their top players, as Jaylen Brown has been ruled out with an ankle injury. That's a big loss for a Celtics team that is likely to suffer some kind of letdown after that big win over the Lakers on Monday.
In terms of a letdown, I think we see a little slower pace and more focus on the defensive end for Boston, who I think will find some motivation here trying to slow down a red-hot Memphis offense that has a ridiculous streak going of scoring 110 or more points in 14 straight games.
I'm not saying this won't be a high-scoring game, I just don't think it eclipses the high total set by the books. UNDER is 4-1 in Boston's last 5 after a game where they scored 125 or more and 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 after giving up 125 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Drake v. Evansville UNDER 134||73-50||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Drake/Evansville under 134 -109
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's Missouri Valley action that has Drake vistining Evansville. This is just too many points given the circumstances.
For one, Drake is not near the offensive team on the road as they are at home. In 3 conference road games the Bulldogs are averaging just 60.7 ppg, a drastic difference from their average of 76.0 ppg in 3 conference home games. Not to mention they are coming in just 2 days removed from a horrific offensive showing at Southern Illinois, where they scored just 49 points on 36% shooting.
As for the Purple Aces, they have statistically been the worst offense in the MVC and it's not even close. Evansville ranks last in offensive efficiency at 81.8 (next worst is 89.5) and effective field goal percentage at 42.5 (next worst is 46.4).
On top of that, Purple Aces just fired head coach Walter McCarty and replaced him with Todd Lickliter, who in his days as the head coach of Iowa and Butler deployed some of the slowest paced teams in the country (9 years never higher than 316th in tempo).
It's also worth noting that Drake is favored in this matchup, as the UNDER is 10-3 in their last 13 as a road favorite and 5-0 in Evansville's last 5 as a dog. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Georgetown +5.5 v. Xavier||Top||57-66||Loss||-109||10 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +5½ -109
I love the value here with the Hoyas as a decently priced road dog against the Musketeers. Most will simply back the Musketeers here assuming they are due to breakout of their recent slump, which has seem them lose 3 straight and 4 of 5 since opening the season 11-2.
I just don't think Xavier is playing well enough right now to be laying this kind of number against a quality Georgetown team. One that has performed extremely well on the road under head coach Patrick Ewing, going 16-10 (62%) ATS.
Last time out Georgetown was done in by a crazy good night from Marquette's star guard Markus Howard, who scored 42 of the their 84 points. Hoyas did more than enough offensively in that game, scoring 80 on 50.8% shooting.
Georgetown really had no answer for Howard and the pick and roll action Marquette was using. It should be a lot easier defensively in this one. Xavier barely runs any pick and roll and likes to work it inside, which plays right into the strength of the Hoyas defense.
Playing at home has also not been a positive for the Musketeers, who are just 1-8 ATS last 9 games at the Cintas Center. Take Georgetown!
|01-21-20||Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 149.5||Top||59-89||Loss||-109||13 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB ACC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Miami-FL/Duke over 149½ -109
I love the value with the OVER in Tuesday's ACC matchup that has Duke hosting Miami. These two teams already played once this season and that game finished with a combined score of 157 as the Blue Devils won 95-62.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Duke put up 100 in this one. They have scored 88 or more 3 times in ACC play and are going to be 100% locked in for this one after losing their last two games. No team has been better in the ACC in finishing at the rim and Miami's allowing teams to convert on 64.5% of their shots at the ri, which is the 310th worst mark in the country.
I would be shocked if Duke didn't score at least 90 in this one, which means we only need Miami to eclipse 60 to cash a winner. I think they easily do that. Hurricanes just shot 47% and scored 79 points against a good FSU defense in their last game and the Blue Devils defense has really been exposed in their last two games, giving up 57% shooting to Clemson and 48% to Louisville at home.
OVER is 15-6 in Miami's last 21 vs a team with a winning record and 15-5 in Duke's last 20 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|01-21-20||Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 233.5||110-107||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Mavs under 233½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Tuesday's only NBA action that has the Mavs hosting the Clippers. In the only previous meeting between these two they combined for just 213 points with a total of 225. Both defenses were really good, as both sides shot under 43% from the field.
I think we get a big effect defensively from both teams knowing that a lot of eyes will be on this one. Also, both teams are going to be well-rested, as LA hasn't played since Saturday and Dallas since Friday.
It's also worth noting that Dallas is favored, which adds some value. UNDER is 8-1 this season when the Clippers are listed as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a road dog. UNDER is also 8-1 in LA's last 9 vs a top tier team that's outscoring teams by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER!
|01-21-20||Texas Tech v. TCU +3||54-65||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on TCU +3 -109
TCU is definitely worth a look here as a home dog against Texas Tech. Good spot to fade the Red Raiders, who come in having won two straight and are fresh off a 72-52 blowout win at home against Iowa State. Texas Tech's offense doesn't travel all that well and they could have a really tough time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at home against nationally ranked Kentucky.
As for the Horned Frogs they are in a big bounce back spot after losing their last two on the road. TCU had started out 3-0 in Big 12 play and are 2-0 at home inside conference action. No question they are going to give everything they have against one of their several in-state rivals.
It's been a wise move fading Tech in this spot. Red Raiders are just 3-7 ATS last 10 as a favorite, 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take TCU!
|01-20-20||Lakers v. Celtics +2.5||Top||107-139||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics +2½ -110
I love this spot and price with Boston as a home dog against the Lakers. Celtics do have both Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown listed as questionable, but I think there's a good shot both guys could play here. Walker missed Boston's last game with a sore knee, but played 38 minutes and scored 40 points against the Bucks on Thursday (didn't leave the game). Brown has missed the last two with a sprained thumb.
Lakers also have a big name on the injury report, as Anthony Davis is also questionable. I think it's less likely Davis goes, as he's missed the last 5 (listed as questionable for all 5). Davis was not part of team workouts yesterday, so it's hard seeing them just throwing him out there for this game.
This is also a huge game for Boston, not only because it's against Lebron and the Lakers, but they are desperate for a win after losing their last 3. Hard to bet against them as a home dog. Celtics are 16-5 at home, 41-25 ATS last 3 seasons as a dog and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a home dog. Take Boston!
|01-20-20||NC State v. Virginia -4||53-51||Loss||-110||22 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia -4 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Cavaliers at home against NC State. Virginia was able to snap a 3-game skid with a 63-58 win and cover at Georgia Tech on Saturday. They will take that momentum into this game and look to build on their 8-2 mark at home.
NC State comes in having won two straight, but both of those wins came on their home floor against middle of the pack teams in the ACC in Clemson and Miami. Wolfpack are just 2-4 away from home this season and have lost each of their last 3 on the road, most recently falling by 14 at Virginia Tech.
Another big thing to note is NC State is really banged up right now. Their top two big men (Manny Bates and Pat Andree) both had to leave their last game with injuries. Andree figures to be a huge long shot to play and Bates is 50/50. C.J. Bryce is also just in his 3rd game back from missing action.
Virginia's Tony Bennett has won all 3 meetings over NC State head coach Kevin Keatts, including a 68-51 victory in last year's home matchup with the Wolfpack. Another thing to note is the Wolfpack like to play fast an teams that push the pace often struggle against Virginia's methodical approach. Cavaliers are 15-5 ATS last 20 times vs an uptempo team that averages 62 or more shots/game. Take Virginia!
|01-20-20||Texas v. West Virginia -8||Top||59-97||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -8 -115
I love the value here with the Mountaineers laying single-digits at home against the Longhorns, as I got West Virginia winning here by 10+ rather easily. Great spot to jump on the Mountaineers off a loss at K-State over the weekend.
In their previous two games off a loss this season they have covered with ease the next time out, beating Austin Peay by 31 as a 15-point favorite and Oklahoma State by 13 on the road as a Pick'em.
Not only is the spot great, but so is the matchup. Bob Huggins' teams are always good at offensive rebounding and this year's team is elite in that department, ranking 3rd in the country. Texas is 287th in allowing offensive boards.
Another thing to keep in mind is you a Texas team that isn't very deep playing on the road on just 1 day of rest after laying it all on the line against Kansas at home on Saturday, a game they lost after leading by 5 at the half.
Longhorns are also 0-5 ATS last 5 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Mountaineers are 7-0 ATS last 7 off a loss, 4-0 ATS last 4 as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take West Virginia!
|01-20-20||Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 226.5||98-111||Win||100||6 h 16 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks under 226½ -109
I really like the value with the UNDER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. These two teams are very familiar with one another and will be meeting for the 4th time this season. After combining for 239 points in the first matchup, the last two have gone for 225 or less.
I just have a hard time seeing these two eclipse the mark set for this one. Milwaukee's one of the best defensive teams in the league and Chicago's offense has had it's struggles against better teams, especially on the road.
One thing the Bulls do well that should help this stay under is play solid transition defense. Chicago ranks 8th in defensive transition defense. They also defend spot up shooting, which is where Milwaukee's offense really thrives.
It's also important to note the Bucks come in off a 117-97 win at Brooklyn, as the UNDER is 13-3 in Milwaukee's last 16 home games off a road win by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 if that win was by 20 or more. Take the UNDER!
|01-19-20||Heat v. Spurs||102-107||Loss||-110||2 h 19 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Heat PK -110
Analysis will be posted shortly
|01-19-20||Minnesota v. Rutgers -5.5||Top||56-64||Win||100||4 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rutgers -5½ -110
Love the value here with the Scarlet Knights laying what I feel is a short number at home given just how dominant they have been at home, as well as Big Ten teams in general. Rutgers is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, which includes a 3-0 mark in conference play, having beat Wisconsin by 7, Penn State by 11 and Indiana by 9. They also have a 20-point home win over a really good Seton Hall team.
Big 10 teams as a whole are now 41-7 (85.4%) SU on the season, which is by far the best home winning percentage of any conference. Minnesota definitely fits the mold. The Gophers are 10-2 at home this season compared to 1-5 on the road. Minnesota is 4-0 at home in Big Ten play with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State. They are 0-3 on the road with a 20-point loss at Iowa, 5-point loss at Purdue and a 16-point loss at Michigan State.
Rutgers defense should be the key factor here. Scarlet Knights are No. 1 in Big 10 play in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. Gophers offense is averaging 57.3 ppg in regulation in Big Ten road games compared to 77.8 ppg at home in conference action. Take Rutgers!
|01-18-20||Blazers v. Thunder -6||106-119||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -6 -110
Easy play here on OKC as a home favorite against the Blazers. Great spot here to take the Thunder after a couple of ugly home losses to the Raptors and Heat in their last two games. The defense just wasn't there in those two losses, but those are also two of the better offensive teams in the league.
Both teams will be in the second leg of a back-to-back, but OKC has a huge edge here as they have had zero travel playing their 3rd straight at home. Portland on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road, as they were in Dallas last night after playing at Houston on Wednesday. Blazers are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 times on 0 days of rest, while OKC is a perfect 6-0 ATS on no rest this season covering by almost 9 points/game.
Portland could also be dealing with yet another injury, as C.J. McCollum had to leave (did not return) last night's game against the Mavs with an ankle injury. Hard to believe he plays here. He's a huge loss, as he's averaging 21.5 ppg and one of the Blazers best 3-point shooters. Take Oklahoma City!
|01-18-20||Oakland +1.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee||68-73||Loss||-109||19 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oakland +1½ -109
I really like the value here with the Bears at basically a pick'em on the road against the Panthers. Both of these teams come in at 3-3 in Horizon play, but Oakland is the better team. Bears rank 205 in KenPom, compared to Milwaukee at 247th. While the Panthers are at home, they have lost 3 times on their home floor, including an ugly loss at home to Detroit last time out, where they let a 4-15 team with one of the worst offenses in the Horizon to put up 90 points.
Defense has really been a problem for Milwaukee of late, as they have allowed 74 or more 8 of their last 9 games. The only exception coming against Illinois-Chicago, who has the worst offense in the Horizon.
Oakland won 89-73 in the most recent meeting between these two at Milwaukee in February of last year. That win and cover by the Bears improved the road team to a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Also Panthers are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a home favorite, while the Bears are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 on the road. Take Oakland!
|01-18-20||Bucks -9 v. Nets||117-97||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks -9 -110
I don't think the recent return of Kyrie Irving will be enough to help Brooklyn keep this within single-digits on their home floor against the Bucks. Nets won Irving's first game back at home against the Hawks, but Atlanta wa down their best player in Trae Young. In the following two games they were beat by 11 at home by Utah and by 11 on the road against the 76ers.
Keep in mind this team wasn't exactly playing great when Irving was healthy early in the year, if anything they were playing better without him. Now you got Kyrie calling out his own teammates after their recent loss. For as great a talent as he is, he's simply not a great teammate and they need to have to have all hands on deck to simply keep this close against an elite Bucks team.
Bucks are 15-4 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-5 ATS last 24 as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Milwaukee!
|01-18-20||New Mexico v. UNLV -4.5||Top||78-99||Win||100||19 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on UNLV -4½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Rebels as a small home favorite against the Lobos. New Mexico comes in at 15-4, which is quite a bit better record than UNLV, who is just 10-9. Thing is the Rebels have really turned a corner of late. They 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and have started out 5-1 in MWC play.
New Mexico is 4-2 in league play, but have really played a soft conference schedule to this point. They also just got blitzed 105-72 at Colorado State a few days ago. UNLV is simply playing the better basketball of the two in conference play. Rebels have the No. 3 best offense in the MWC from an efficiency standpoint and New Mexico is No. 5. On defense UNLV is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in effective field goal defense. Lobos are No. 8 and No. 10 in those two departments.
Another thing is the Lobos are an easy fade under Paul Weir when playing on the road. They are just 8-21 (28%) ATS under Weir away from home, including a 4-13 ATS mark the last two seasons. Rebels are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and have covered 7 of their last 10 at home when laying points. Take UNLV.
|01-18-20||Kentucky v. Arkansas -1.5||73-66||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas -1½ -109
The Razorbacks are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Wildcats. All you have to really look at here is the fact that you have an unranked Arkansas team laying points against a Kentucky team that is ranked No. 10 in the country. Not to mention you know the public will be enticed to bet the Wildcats here off a loss.
While Kentucky had done a decent job of protecting the ball in non-conference, they currently have the 8th worst turnover rate in the SEC and just coughed it up 15 times in their last game at South Carolina, which they lost 78-81. Arkansas knows a thing or two about forcing turnovers, as they are No. 2 in the SEC in defensive turnover rate and 42nd overall.
Arkansas has yet to lose on their home floor this season, going a perfect 10-0. In fact, Razorbacks are dangerously close to being undefeated, as their two losses have been an OT setback against Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss at LSU.
Also while Kentucky is No. 10 in the polls, they rank 24th in KenPom and the Razorbacks are No. 25. This line is not as far off as you might think. Take Arkansas!
|01-18-20||St. Mary's v. Pepperdine UNDER 147||78-69||Push||0||8 h 57 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on St. Mary's/Pepperdine under 147 -115
I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER in Saturday's West Coast matchup that has St. Mary's visiting Pepperdine. While the Gaels are averaging 80.2 ppg and giving up 79.0 ppg in league play, those numbers are skewed quite a bit from a 4-OT game at Pacific that ended up seeing 206 combined points after the two had only combined for 128 in regulation (64-64).
The only game they have really played that was a shootout was against BYU, who has an even better offense than the Gaels. Pepperdine is just middle of the pack offensively, but are in the Top 5 defensively and are only allowing teams to shoot 44% from the field in WCC play.
It's also worth noting St Mary's is coming off an upset loss at home to Santa Clara, as the UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Gaels last 9 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!
|01-18-20||Colorado State v. Air Force UNDER 150.5||78-65||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Colorado State/Air Force under 150½ -115
I just think there's too much value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Mountain West clash between Colorado State and Air Force. I just think we are seeing an inflated number with the Rams off a game at home against New Mexico, where they put up 105 points.
Thing is Colorado State had a near perfect night from the floor, as they shot 59% from the field going a ridiculous 19 of 28 from 3-point range. Note we saw them have similar strong showing at home against Doane, where they put up 87 on 54% and the next time out managed just 61 points on 38% shooting at Nevada.
Air Force is not an easy place to play and if they don't light it up it's going to be really hard for these two to eclipse the high mark set for this game. UNDER is 5-1 in the Falcons last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 19-8 in the Rams last 27 on the road after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!
|01-18-20||Kansas v. Texas +8||66-57||Loss||-109||15 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas +8 -109
I really like the value here with the Longhorns as a near double-digit dog at home against the Jayhawks. I get KU is one of the top teams in the country and fresh off a 14-point win at Oklahoma, but it's asking a lot for them to blowout a team like the Longhorns, who are such a tough team to beat at home.
Texas is 8-1 at home this season and are really locking down on defense at home, where they are giving up just 59.9 ppg and holding teams to 40% from the field and 31% from deep. I think that defense will be enough to keep them in this game. Keep in mind the Jayhawks aren't exactly going off on the offensive end, as they are averaging just 66.4 ppg over their last 5.
Also fading KU on the road in Saturday games has been a very profitable move, as they are just 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons in this spot. Longhorns are also a great team to back as a home dog, cashing 28 of the last 41 tickets in this spot. Take Texas!
|01-18-20||William & Mary -3 v. Drexel||57-84||Loss||-105||14 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on William & Mary -3 -105
The Tribe are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Dragons. William & Mary is absolutely rolling into this matchup. The Tribe have won 6 straight with 4 of the 6 wins coming on the road. They have also covered each of their last 5, including a big 77-68 road win at Delaware as a 1.5-point dog last time out.
I just don't think Drexel will have an answer for Nathan Knight, who is one of the better players you probably haven't heard of. Knight is averaging 20.3 ppg and 10.6 rpg and can not only get easy baskets inside, but can knock down the 3-point shot.
As for the Dragons offense, they rank 8th in the CAA in offensive efficiency and 9th in effective field goal percentage (William & Mary is No. 1 in both). I just don't see Drexel being able to keep pace with the Tribe in this one. Take William & Mary!
|01-18-20||Butler -3.5 v. DePaul||66-79||Loss||-108||12 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Butler -3½ -108
The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a short road favorite against the Blue Demons. There were a ton of people singing the praises of DePaul during their 12-1 start to the season, which included wins over the likes of Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech.
Blue Demons simply haven't been able to carry over that success into Big East play, as they have started out 0-4, most recently suffering a crushing OT loss at Villanova on Tuesday. DePaul has already lost twice at home and is facing a Butler team who is 6-1 on the road with their only road loss being a mere 1-point setback at current No. 2 ranked Baylor.
Another key factor here is we know we are going to get a huge effort from the Bulldogs coming off an upset loss at home to Seton Hall. Butler is 5-0 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover and are 6-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Butler!
|01-18-20||Baylor v. Oklahoma State +7.5||75-68||Win||100||13 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Oklahoma State +7½ -105
I really like the value here with the Cowboys as a big home dog against the Bears. We are seeing a huge overreaction to the line in this game due to the fact that Baylor is both 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in Big 12 play, while Oklahoma State is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS to open up conference play.
No question the Bears are the better team, but this just feels like a spot they will struggle to play in. Baylor just played 4 really good teams in a row in Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State and could find it hard to get up on the road against a team they know they are better than.
As for Oklahoma State, you can bank on a max effort here at home from the Cowboys. Not only will there be plenty of motivation playing the No. 2 team in the country, but this team desperately wants to get that first conference win.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a home win and have won more than 80% of their games are just 27-62 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Cowboys have also covered 7 of their last 9 games when listed as a dog and the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take Oklahoma State!
|01-17-20||Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 148||Top||83-90||Loss||-109||21 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Michigan/Iowa under 148 -109
It will be extremely difficult for many to take the UNDER in this one, as these two teams combined for 194 points in a meeting at Michigan back in early December. However, I think there's a ton of value with the UNDER at the current price.
What you got to keep in mind is that these two teams are going to have a much better idea of how to stop the other team in the rematch and both teams have to be a bit worn down given the gauntlet of Big Ten play.
One thing that really stands out to me is how much Michigan's offense has struggled in true road games this season. THey have played 4 games on an opponents court and in this 4 games have scored 43, 62, 69 and 67 points. Not to mention
Iowa is a much better defensive team at home, Hawkeyes are allowing 63.2 ppg at home. Hawks have played just two home games in Big Ten PLay and in those games have held Minnesota to 52 points and Maryland to 49. Their game against the Gophers ended with just 124 points with a total of 147 and against the Terps the combined for just 116 with a total of 174. Take the UNDER!
|01-17-20||Hawks v. Spurs UNDER 230.5||121-120||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hawks/Spurs under 230½ -109
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA matchup that has the Spurs hosting the Hawks. I know Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in the league and San Antonio's isn't much better, but I just don't see the pace being at the point needed to eclipse this total.
While the Hawks will be on two days rest, I still think they are going to be a bit fatigued for this one. Atlanta was at Washington last Friday, had to play at Brooklyn two days later and then were back home on just 1 day of rest against the Suns.
As for the Spurs, they are going to be playing on just 1 day of rest after a grueling 4-game road trip that had them go from Boston to Memphis to Toronto and finally end up in Miami.
UNDER is 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 road games. It's also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take the UNDER!
|01-17-20||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -8||55-67||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -8 -109
I got no problem laying the big number with Sparty at home against Wisconsin. This is a massive play on spot for Michigan State, who is coming off their worst showing of the season in Sunday's 42-71 loss at Purdue. Not to make excuses, but that's a Boilermakers team that is much better than their 10-7 record. Purdue has played the 14th toughest schedule in the country and actually rank No. 17 per KenPom.
Not to take anything away from a good Wisconsin team, but they are just in the wrong place at the wrong time against a superior opponent. Not to mention the struggles the Badgers have had against the Spartans. Michigan State has won each of the last 7 meetings overall and have won each of their last 5 home games against Wisconsin by double-digits.
Laying a big number with the Spartans at home is also not a bad thing. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS last 9 times they have been a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. As for Wisconsin and their recent strong play, now is the time to jump ship. Badgers are just 3-11 ATS last 3 seasons when they come in having won 6/7 of their last 8 games. Take Michigan State!
|01-17-20||Rider -4.5 v. Niagara||68-70||Loss||-109||19 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider -4½ -109
The Broncs are definitely worth a look here as a short road favorite against the Purple Eagles. Niagara is just 4-11 on the season and have just one win over a team ranked inside the Top 240 and that was a OT win against Colgate back in early December.
I just don't think they have the ability to keep this close even at home. Rider is arguably the best team in the MAAC, despite their mere 3-2 start in league play. They are the only team in the conference ranked (No. 184) inside the Top 200 of KenPom.
Big thing here is how these two teams matchup. Broncs are going to have a huge size advantage in this one, as Niagara is the smallest team in the country. They rank 353 out of 353 in average height at 74.5". This should allow for a lot of easy looks for a Rider team ranks tops in the league in offensive efficiency. It should also result in a huge edge in both rebounds and free throws.
Also Niagara is in a big fade spot off a 70-69 upset win at Iona, where they shot lights out from deep (15 of 26). Purple Eagles are 7-18 ATS last 25 after a game where they shot 50% or better from deep and 0-7 ATS last 7 off a road win by 3 or less. Take Rider!
|01-16-20||CS-Northridge +5 v. Cal-Riverside||80-68||Win||100||22 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on CS-Northridge +5 -110
I really like the value here with the Matadors as a decently priced road dog against UC-Riverside. I think a big part of this value stems from how bad CS-Northridge looked in their last game, which saw them get rolled 74-56 as a 6-point favorite at Cal Poly.
That was just a bad night all around. Matadors had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, going 19 of 53 (35.8%) from the field. That's just a true indicator of this team, which had shot 54% or better in each of their previous 3 games.
Matadors are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a loss, 5-1 ATS last 6 as a road dog and 8-3 ATS last 11 overall. Road team has also covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings in the series with the underdog cashing each of the last 4 matchups. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-16-20||Pacific -4 v. Portland||65-55||Win||100||14 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pacific -4 -109
I got no problem laying the short number on the road with Pacific as they take on Portland in Thursday's late night action. The Tigers are coming off a 75-79 loss at home to San Francisco. A game
Head coach Damon Stoudamire had this to say after the loss. “We can’t learn a lesson. To me, they thoroughly dominated us for 40 minutes. We got outplayed, we got outcoached. There is no lesson to learn. I think that the biggest thing is we got to compete harder.” I mean if they apparently play that bad and only lose by 4 that's saying something.
I like the Tigers to bounce back in a big way here against the Pilots. Portland has been the worst defensive team in the WCC to start the year ranking dead last in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Pacific is 4th in defensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage. That defensive edge will be the difference here. Take Pacific!
|01-16-20||Eastern Kentucky +20.5 v. Belmont||Top||56-87||Loss||-110||21 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Kentucky +20½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Colonels as a massive road dog against the Bruins. I get there's a big difference in the overall record of these two teams, but simply put Eastern Kentucky has been a different team in conference play. The Colonels are sitting at 3-1 and have really got things figured out on offense of late. They are averaging 75.0 ppg in league play.
Belmont has won 3 straight after opening up conference play with a loss at home to SIU Edwardsville as a 23-point favorite. They do have a couple of blowout wins by 20+ points against E Illinois and SE Missouri State, but those two teams are also a combined 0-8 in league play.
Eastern Kentucky is one of the better defensive teams in the conference, like to slow things down and limit possessions and are great at taking care of the basketball. All things that should help them easily keep this within the number. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|01-16-20||Celtics v. Bucks -9||123-128||Loss||-109||9 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bucks -9 -109
I got no problem here laying a big number with Milwaukee at home against the Celtics in Thursday's big NBA matchup on TNT. Boston simply is not playing great right now. Celtics have lost 4 of 6, including an inexcusable 103-116 setback at home against Detroit last night.
I just don't think they can flip a switch here, especially playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 days overall. Not to mention Boston could be down to of their best players, as both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are listed as questionable.
Bucks are also 19-2 at home, where they are winning by an average of 14.3 ppg and this is one they are going to be highly motivated to get after losing by double-digits at Boston earlier this season. Take Milwaukee!
|01-16-20||North Texas v. Southern Miss UNDER 133||72-52||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on North Texas/Southern Miss under 133 -110
I really like the value with the UNDER in this one. North Texas has the best offense in C-USA and will be facing a Southern Miss defense that ranks at the bottom of the conference, giving up 78.5 ppg in league play. I just think that has the total inflated to where there's value on the UNDER.
Big thing to note is that the Mean Green are not nearly as potent on the road. North Texas is averaging 70.6 ppg on 47.4% shooting overall, but just 61.4 ppg and 42.7% on the road. Southern Miss is also an awful offensive team, scoring just 58.2 ppg in conference play and will be facing a Mean Green defense that has held 3 of their 4 conference opponents to fewer than 65 points.
UNDER is 25-12 in North Texas' last 37 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 10-2 in their last 12 on the road after going OVER the total in their previous game. Take the UNDER!
|01-16-20||Texas State -4.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe||64-63||Loss||-109||12 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -4½ -109
The Bobcats are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Warhawks. While Texas State is just 3-4 in Sun Belt play, they are actually the No. 2 ranked team in the Conference per KenPom behind only Georgia State. Of their 4 conference losses, 3 have come on the road against the 3 teams tied on top the standings in Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Little Rock.
ULM on the other hand is tied for the worst mark in the conference at 2-5 and more than anything this is just not a good matchup for the Warhawks. ULM wants to get the majority of their offense inside, and Texas State is really tough to score on inside.
Two other advantages that figure to go a long way in favor of the Bobcats is free throw shooting and turnovers. Texas State gets to the foul line 23 times a game and is shooting 75% from the charity line. UML only gets to the line 18 times and is shooting 67.8%. Warhawks also have the 3rd worst turnover rate in the SB and Bobcats are second best in forcing turnovers. Take Texas State!
|01-16-20||Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 117.5||48-64||Loss||-109||11 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Southern Illinois/Loyola-Chicago over 117½ -109
There's no denying that these are two of the better defensive teams in the Missouri Valley, but I just think we are seeing a ridiculously low total due to the fact that the UNDER has been so good for both teams of late. UNDER has cashed in 7 straight for Southern Illinois and 5 straight for the Ramblers.
Loyola-Chicago is No. 3 in the MVC in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, so it's not like they can't score. Ramblers are scoring almost 75 ppg at home and that's exactly how many they had last year when they hosted the Salukis, which saw a combined score of 125.
It's also worth noting that Loyola is fresh off a 78-44 blowout win over Evansville at home as a 13.5-point favorite, as the OVER is a dominant 13-3 in their last 16 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Southern Illinois' last 7 road games when facing a team that is shooting 48% or better from the field. Take the OVER 117.5!
|01-16-20||Texas-Arlington v. UL - Lafayette OVER 142.5||81-65||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Texas-Arlington/UL - Lafayette over 142½ -110
Easy play for me on the OVER in Thursday's Sun Belt showdown between UT-Arlington and UL-Lafayette. I think there's some hidden value here due to the fact that Ragin' Cajuns are coming off two dreadful offensive showings at Georgia State and Georgia Southern, where they scored just 52 and 51 points respectively.
Thing is, Lafayette is a different offensive team on the road than they are at home and those are two of the top defenses in the Sun Belt. In their previous two games they put up 81 at App State and 79 at home against Troy. Arlington is not a great defensive team and just gave up 82 at home to Coastal Carolina.
The other big key here is tempo. The Mavericks like to speed up the game and are playing at the 3rd fastest tempo in the Sun Belt. I think Lafayette also likes to play fast and will be up for a faster tempo after their last two games.
OVER is also 12-1 in Arlington's last 13 games as a road favorite and 15-4 in Lafayette's last 19 at home against poor shooting teams 15+ games into the season. Take the OVER!
|01-16-20||Charlotte v. Marshall OVER 132||77-75||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Charlotte/Marshall over 132 -117
I really like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's C-USA matchup that has Marshall hosting Charlotte. This is the lowest total we have seen in a game involving the Herd this season and a big reason for that is because of their recent struggles offensively and the fact that Charlotte plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.
Thing is, Marshall has had a way of making the 49ers play up to their tempo in recent meetings. Last year the two played to a combined 169 points at Charlotte. You have to go back to their first meeting in 2015 to find the last time these two didn't combine for at least 150 points. OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and the averaged combined score in these 11 matchups is 161.5.
Also in regards to the Herds' poor shooting of late, with how many outside shots they take they are going to have games where they don't connect. Good chance they get going at home, where they are shooting 47% from the field on the season. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Mavs v. Kings OVER 226.5||127-123||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings over 226½ -109
Easy play on the OVER in tonight's late action between the Kings and Mavs. I just don't think Sacramento has any hope here of slowing down this potent Dallas offensive attack. Mavs are No. 1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 114.1 per 100 possessions. Next best is the Bucks at 111.9.
Dallas is lethal in the pick and roll and the Kings are rank in the bottom 10 of the league at defending the pick and roll. Sacramento is giving up 111.8 ppg in their last 5 and have allowed 110 or more in 10 of their last 14.
Key here is the Kings are clicking on the offensive end right now, as they are scoring 111.6 ppg in their last 5 and have scored 110 or more in 7 of 9 overall. Dallas held the 76ers to 91 and the Warriors to 97 in their last 2, but Philadelphia's without Embiid and Golden State is just not very good. Prior to that they had given up 114.4 ppg in their previous 8. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Stanford v. UCLA +2.5||74-59||Loss||-110||22 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on UCLA +2½ -110
Most will look to back Stanford here as a small road favorite at UCLA, as the Cardinal come in having won 7 of 8 and covered 3 straight, while UCLA has lost 5 of 6 and have just one cover in their last 7 games. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this number.
Big thing to keep in mind with Stanford and their impressive 14-2 start to the season is 12 of their 16 games have come on their home floor and their only true road game to this point was a matchup at San Jose State, who is ranked 285th in KenPom. Even with games against Butler and Kansas, the Cardinal's non-conference strength of schedule was a mere 300th in the nation.
I get UCLA has been a big disappointment in the first season under Mick Cronin, but I'm confident we get a big effort here from the Bruins at home off that ugly home loss to USC. Note that the Bruins are 5-2 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home, while Stanford is 0-6 ATS last 6 off a home win by 10 or more (beat Washington St 88-62) and 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road after playing 3 straight at home. Take UCLA!
|01-15-20||Blazers v. Rockets -8||117-107||Loss||-109||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -8 -109
Easy play here on the Rockets laying single digits at home against the Blazers. Houston will be playing on no rest after last night's 110-121 setback at Memphis, but keep in mind they played that game without one of their best players in Russell Westbrook, as he continues to sit out the first of back-to-backs.
Any time the Rockets are off an ugly loss they are worth a look and they come into this one having covered 5 straight off a loss by 10 or more. As for the Blazers, they just aren't playing good basketball right now. They nearly blew a huge double-digit lead in their last game, as they squeaked out a 115-112 win at home over a bad Charlotte team playing on no rest.
Blazers are now a miserable 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They are also just 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road, 1-7 ATS last 8 as a dog and 1-8 ATS last 9 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Houston!
|01-15-20||Boise State v. Air Force||78-85||Loss||-109||21 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Boise State PK -109
I really like the value here with Boise State at basically a pick'em on the road against the Falcons. The Broncos are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after an ugly 18-point loss at San Diego State last time out. Boise State has been rock-solid coming off a loss of late, covering each of their last 5 games in this spot.
Air Force has a solid home court edge, but I just don't think it will be enough for them to get a win. This is just not a good matchup for the Falcons. Air Force is a very small team and because of that have no protected the rim well. In fact, they are 334th out of 353 teams in opponents finish rate at the rim. Boise State is 12th nationally in finishing at the rim, which means the Broncos should have a field day inside.
Bronces are also 20-9 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take Boise State!
|01-15-20||Wizards v. Bulls OVER 230||106-115||Loss||-103||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Bulls over 230 -103
I look for the Bulls and Wizards to easily surpass the big total set for tonight's matchup. It's really hard to not like the OVER with Washington as long as Bradley Beal is in the lineup. Wizards are obviously a better offensive team with Beal on the floor, but what people don't realize is how he negatively impacts the defense. Wizards defense is 14.4 worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
On the season Washington is giving up 121.6 ppg away from home and the Bulls can and should hit that mark. Chicago had 110 at the Wizards when these two played about a month ago and shot just 40% from the field in that game.
Other key here is the Bulls who had been playing solid defense are struggling on that side of the ball since Wendell Carter Jr went down. In Chicago's last 6 games they have given up 111 or more points in 5 of those games and the only exception was a game against a depleted Pistons squad. Also, Bulls have gone 8 straight games allowing the opposition to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Iowa State +10.5 v. Baylor||Top||55-68||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +10½ -110
I love the value here with the Cyclones as a double-digit road dog against the Bears. Baylor is getting praise everywhere the look and after back-to-back road wins last week at Texas Tech and Kansas, they are now the No. 2 ranked team in the country.
No question the Bears are legit, but this just feels like the perfect spot to sell high, as they are just a few days removed from that impressive upset win at Kansas. Note they also had a big game against rival Texas before defeating the Red Raiders, so it was really a 3-game stretch where they laid it all on the line.
Iowa State is off an impressive 81-68 win over Oklahoma that was much more lopsided than the final score would indicate. Cyclones are clearly a step below the top tier teams in the conference, but are far from a pushover. Their 8-7 record is also a bit misleading given the difficult schedule they have faced.
ISU has also been a solid bet in this spot, covering 5 of their last 6 as a road dog. As for the Bears, they are just 4-9-1 ATS last 14 as a home favorite and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State!
|01-15-20||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||106-117||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on 76ers -7½ -109
I got no problem laying the points with Philadelphia at home against the Nets. This is a great spot to buy low on the 76ers, as there's a lot of doubt surrounding this team with Embiid out after back-to-back ugly road losses at Dallas (91-109) and Indiana (95-101).
Sure the 76ers aren't as good without Embiid, but you also can't read to much into how bad this team plays on the road. They weren't a good team away from home with Embiid. Philadelphia beat Boston 109-98 without Embiid in their last home game and are now 18-2 at home this season.
This is also a great spot to fade Brooklyn. Nets recently got back Kyrie Irving, but it wasn't enough for them in last night's home game against the Jazz, which they lost 118-107. I don't see it going any better on the road on no rest tonight.
Brooklyn is just 6-13 ATS last 19 in the second of a back-to-back and have failed to cover 5 straight as a road dog. Take Philadelphia!
|01-14-20||Mavs v. Warriors +9||124-97||Loss||-110||13 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Warriors +9 -110
Golden State is worth a look as a near double-digit dog at home against the Mavs. Warriors come into this game having lost 8 straight, but we have seen this team sneak up on opponents at home.
Mavs are a team that caught the attention of a lot of people early on this season, but they are just 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games. As good as Doncic has been, this is not the same caliber a team without Porzingis, who is dealing with a knee injury.
Dallas did beat the Warriors 141-121 at Golden State earlier this season, but that's a positive here, as it should spark a big effort from the Warriors and they are 17-7 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take Golden State!
|01-14-20||Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Wake Forest||80-70||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Virginia Tech -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Hokies as a small road favorite against the Demon Deacons. Some might be willing to give Wake Forest a pass in their last two games, which saw them lose by 10 at home to FSU and by 31 at Duke, as those are not teams they are expected to beat.
Thing is the Demon Deacons are down one of their best players in Chaundee Brown and they just aren't the same team when he's not on the floor. I just think it's asking a bit much for Wake to win this game at home against a red-hot Hokies team. Virginia Tech is off a 72-58 win at home over NC State and are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games overall.
Hokies defense has been great of late and when they are clicking on that side it's a good idea to jump on board. Va Tech is 11-3 ATS last 14 after giving up 65 or fewer in 3 straight games. Wake is also just 17-31 ATS last 48 as an underdog and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Virginia Tech!
|01-14-20||Akron v. Northern Illinois +3||Top||72-49||Loss||-109||19 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois +3 -109
I love the value here with Northern Illinois as a home dog against the Zips. Akron comes in with an impressive 13-3 record, are riding a 4-game win streak and sitting at 3-0 in MAC play. Most won't hesitate laying the short number here with the Zips, but I think they lose outright to the Huskies.
Northern Illinois is a 1-point loss at Central Michigan away from being 3-0 themselves in MAC action. Zips are just 2-5 ATS last 7 times they have been listed as a road favorite and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series.
Huskies also just seem to play their best against the best, especially later on in the season. In fact, they are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games 15+ games into the season when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Take Northern Illinois!
|01-14-20||Kent State v. Miami-OH +4.5||74-77||Win||100||18 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Miami-OH +4½ -105
The Redhawks are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Flashes. Good spot here to back Miami as we can bank on a max effort here after a rough 0-3 start to MAC play. Thing to note is two of those were on the road against quality teams in Bowling Green and Central Michigan the other was a home game against a good Buffalo squad.
Not to say Kent State isn't another quality opponent, but it's never easy playing on the road in conference play on short rest. Golden Flashes will have had just 2 days off for this one. I also look for Miami to get their offense going. Redhawks are scoring 80.1 ppg and Kent State is giving up 74.9 ppg on the road. On the flip side, Flashes only score 72.6 ppg on the road and Miami allows just 66.1 ppg at home.
Kent State is just 3-11 ATS last 14 times they have played on the road after a game as a home favorite and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 or more games in a row. Take Miami!
|01-14-20||Louisville -4.5 v. Pittsburgh||73-68||Win||100||18 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisville -4½ -109
I really like the value here with Louisville laying what I think is a short number on the road against the Panthers. These two teams played once already and the Cardinals made easy work of Pitt at home in a 64-46 win.
I don't think playing at home is going to be enough for Pitt to overcome the difficulties they had scoring against this Louisville defense. Cardinals are also on a bit of a roll, as they have won two straight after a couple of losses to Kentucky and FSU.
Panthers are simply getting a little too much love from the books because of their 11-5 record, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Pitt is also just 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a dog and 3-13-1 ATS last 17 off a loss. Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 games as a favorite and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. Take Louisville!
|01-14-20||Ball State -3.5 v. Eastern Michigan||69-52||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State -3½ -109
I really like the Cardinals here to cover as a small road favorite against the Eagles. This is simply an ideal matchup for Ball State and their unselfish offense that has knockdown shooters all over the floor. Cardinals should get plenty of open looks from deep against Eastern Michigan's zone defense, which comes in the 24th most 3-pointers in the country.
I just don't think the Eagles can keep pace with all that shooting, as they just aren't a very good offensive team. Eastern Michigan is only averaging 60.3 ppg in conference play and shooting just 38% from the field in those 3 contests. Eagles are also just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a dog. Take Ball State!
|01-13-20||Hornets v. Blazers UNDER 217||112-115||Loss||-105||11 h 2 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hornets/Blazers under 217 -105
The UNDER is worth a look here in Monday's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. I just don't see these two teams playing with the kind of pace needed to go over a total of this magnitude.
Charlotte has to be running on fumes as they flew across the country for a game at Utah on Friday and then were at Phoenix last night before making another long trip up north for this game on no rest. Blazers had to return home from a 4-game road trip to face one of the league's best in Milwaukee and will be on just 1-day of rest for this one.
Portland has been playing at a slower pace of late with all the travel and have scored no more than 102 in their last 3 games. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and we saw how that can impact a game last night against the Suns. Phoenix shot 50% from the field and yet the game only saw a 192 combined points. Same thing in their game against Utah. Jazz shot 51% and the two combined for only 201 points. Take the UNDER!
|01-13-20||Portland State v. Montana -6.5||70-85||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Montana -6½ -109
Easy play here on the Grizzlies to cover at home against the Vikings. Montana is in the midst of their best stretch of basketball. The Grizzlies have won 4 of 5 and just put it on a good Eastern Washington team 90-63 as a 5.5-point dog last time out. Montana's defense held Eastern Washington 23 points under their season average and are giving up just 63.4 ppg in conference play.
Portland State is scoring 77.5 ppg, but it's come against teams who on average are allowing 73.5 ppg, so definitely expect them to struggle to get anywhere close to that. Defensively they are giving up 76.5 ppg on the road and could really struggle to bring it on that side of the ball.
Vikings will be playing their 4th straight road games and this one comes on just one day of rest off a grueling 77-76 win against Montana State. Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS last 15 at home after 2 straight on the road and are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Montana!
|01-13-20||Pelicans v. Pistons||117-110||Loss||-109||8 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pistons PK -109
Even though New Orleans comes in off an ugly 35-point loss at Boston, most will be looking to take the Pelicans in this one, as they have been playing well and there's not much to get excited about with how Detroit has been playing.
I just think the poor showing against the Celtics was a sign of a tired team and I look for them to struggle to bounce back in another tough scheduling spot. New Orleans will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days. Real easy for them to just go through the motions here, especially knowing they got the next two days off before two big home games against the Jazz and Clippers.
Pelicans are just 2-6-1 aTS last 9 after giving up 125 or more points (allowed 140 to Boston) and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Take Detroit!
|01-12-20||Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 221||102-122||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies over 221 -109
Easy play on the OVER in Sunday's NBA matchup that has Memphis hosting the Warriors. The books are having a terrible time setting the total high enough in Grizzlies' games of late. The OVER is 12-3 in Memphis' last 15 games.
A big part of that is the Grizzlies' offense, which is absolutely on fire right now. Memphis is averaging 127.4 ppg in their last 5 and have scored 110 or more in 10 straight games. Not only is their offense lighting it up, but they are allowing a ton of points. Grizzlies have given up 112 or more in 5 straight.
OVER is 10-1 in Memphis' last 11 home games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER!
|01-12-20||Spurs v. Raptors -3||Top||105-104||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -3 -110
Love the value here with the Raptors laying a small number at home against the Spurs. While Toronto likely won't get back Siakam and Gasol until later this week, they will be welcoming back Powell to the mix.
Regardless of who has been in and out of the lineup, Raptors continue to play at a very high level, especially on the defensive end. Spurs simply can't be trusted on the road with how little defense they play. San Antonio just lost at Memphis and gave up 134 in the process. Spurs are now a mere 5-12 on the road this season, giving up 117 ppg.
San Antonio is also just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 after giving up 125 or more in their previous game, while Raptors are 16-7 ATS last 23 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Toronto!
|01-12-20||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -2.5||58-66||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Miami-FL -2½ -110
Really like the value here with the Hurricanes laying a small number at home against the Panthers. Perfect spot to buy low on Miami off back-to-back losses. While they were completely outclassed in a 33-point home loss to Duke, they were down just 5 with 5 minutes to play before losing 58-74 at Louisville last time out.
Either way this is the ideal bounce back spot and a great price against a Pitt team that is getting too much love for a road win against a bad UNC team. Prior to that upset of the Tar Heels, the Panthers had gone just 1-4 ATS in their previous 5 games.
One thing Pitt really thrives on is forcing turnovers and that's a problem here, as Miami simply doesn't turn it over. Hurricanes have the 12th best turnover rate in the country. Last time out against Louisville they only turned it over 5 times.
Panthers are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 road games after playing two straight conference games, 2-9-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-14-1 ATS last 18 as a dog. Take Miami!
|01-11-20||Weber State +5.5 v. CS Sacramento||57-71||Loss||-110||23 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ODDSMAKER ERROR on Weber State +5½ -110
I like the value here with the Wildcats catching a decent number on the road against CS-Sacramento. I just think we are getting a great price on Weber State due to the fact that they have gone just 1-4 in their last 5 games, as this is a much more evenly matched game than the number suggest.
Sacramento State comes in at 9-4, but their only win against a team in the top 200 of the KenPom rankings is a mere 5-point win over No. 170 Pepperdine. Weber State has only played 3 teams outside the Top 200.
The other big thing is the Hornets just can't be trusted laying points with how bad they are on the offensive side of the ball. CS-Sacramento is averaging a mere 61.8 ppg which is really bad when you consider how easy the schedule has been.
Wildcats are 23-10 ATS last 33 after dropping 4 of their last 5, while the Hornets are 0-6 ATS last 6 at home after winning 2 of their last 3. Road team has also only failed to cover 4 times in the last 14 meetings between these two. Take Weber State!
|01-11-20||CS-Northridge -5.5 v. Cal Poly||56-74||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on CS-Northridge -5½ -110
Easy play here on CS-Northridge laying a short number on the road against Cal Poly. While the Matadors are just 6-11 overall, they come in having won 3 straight as the schedule has finally started to get easier (8 of their 11 losses have come against teams ranked 170 or better in KenPom. Cal Poly is 337th.
The Mustangs are 3-12 overall with two of their wins coming against non division 1 teams and the other a mere 4-point win over Siena. On top of all that, CS-Northridge is 13-4 ATS last 17 conference games and the Matadors have owned Cal Poly in recent meetings, covering 9 of the last 11 meetings. Take CS-Northridge!
|01-11-20||Boise State +11.5 v. San Diego State||65-83||Loss||-110||23 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Boise State +11½ -110
I like the value here with the Broncos as a double-digit road dog against the Aztecs. San Diego State comes in at 16-0 and there's no doubt in my mind the number on the Aztecs has been inflated quite a bit here because of their strong start.
I'm not saying they won't win at home, but I think Boise State can definitely make a game of this. The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 and are 7-2 ATS last 9 times vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS last 8 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Aztecs are just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home as a favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Boise State!
|01-11-20||Florida -1.5 v. Missouri||75-91||Loss||-110||23 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Florida -1½ -110
The Gators are worth a look at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. Florida has been impressive to start out SEC play, rallying from 20 down to stun Alabama in OT in their conference opener and then going on the road and whooping South Carolina 81-68 as a mere 4.5-point favorite.
Missouri has started out 0-2 and while one of those is an excusable loss at Kentucky, the other was a home setback against a struggling Tennessee team that had lost 4 of 5. Also the Tigers are 6-2 at home, but all 6 wins have come against teams ranked 119th or worse in KenPom. Florida is No. 23.
Florida's offense finally seems to be rounding into form and I just think it will be too much for a Missouri offense that is only averaging 66.7 ppg and a mere 59.0 ppg in SEC play. As for the Tigers defense, it's not been nearly as good of late.
Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road favorite. Tigers are 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a win percent of 60% or better and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida!
|01-11-20||Marshall +1.5 v. UAB||50-61||Loss||-115||17 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Marshall +1½ -115
Easy play here on the Thundering Herd at basically a pick'em at UAB. Marshall has really been a different team over the last month. They are 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. They did fail to cover last time out at Middle Tennessee, but that was an unfortunate non-cover as they had a 9-point lead with less than a minute to play and ended up winning by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite.
Marshall should be able to get a lot of easy baskets in this one. UAB is one of the worst teams in the country in turnover rate ranking 336th and the Herd are 30th nationally in steal rate.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 at least 15 games into the season who are a good offensive team (74-78 ppg) and facing a bad offensive team (63-67 ppg) are a dominant 42-16 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marshall!
|01-11-20||Bulls v. Pistons -3.5||108-99||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pistons -3½ -109
I like the value here with Detroit laying a small number at home against the Bulls. Chicago just keeps getting all kinds of respect from the books despite the fact that they haven't been playing well or covering. Bulls have lost 6 straight and failed to cover all 6.
I just don't see it getting better for Chicago in this one. Bulls are really missing big man Wendell Carter Jr, whose absence negatively impacts the team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.
This is also a really tough scheduling spot for the Bulls. Chicago played at New Orleans on Wednesday, quickly flew back home for a game against Indiana last night and then had to turn around and head to Detroit. Not ideal at all for a young team like the Bulls, who are short handed and lacking confidence. Take Detroit!
|01-11-20||Old Dominion +3.5 v. Charlotte||Top||47-53||Loss||-110||17 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Monarchas as a small road dog against the 49ers. Both of these teams like to play slow and really grind it out defensively. Thing is Old Dominion has thrived against these kind of opponents, going a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a strong defensive team that is allowing 64 or fewer points/game.
This is also a great spot to fade Charlotte. The 49ers have won 5 of 6 and are off a win over Middle Tennessee where they had a huge lead at the half. Charlotte is 8-20 ATS last 28 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and are 8-28 ATS last 36 after a game where they led by 15 or more at the half.
The Monarchs have also owned this series. They have swept the two-game season series each of the last 2 years and 3 of the 4 wins have come by double-digits. No way should they be a dog here. Take Old Dominion!
|01-11-20||Texas A&M +6 v. Vanderbilt||69-50||Win||100||18 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas A&M +6 -115
I like the value here with the Aggies as a road dog against the Commodores. Texas A&M got off to a really tough start to the season, as they opened up just 3-5. Things have got much better of late, as they are 4-1 SU and have started out 2-0 ATS in SEC play.
I like this matchup for Texas A&M, as Vanderbilt is a team that lives on 3-pointers and free throws. That's going to be a big problem for the Commodores, as the Aggies are holding opponents to just 28.9% shooting from deep and give up only 13 free throw attempts per/game (16th best defensive free throw rate).
Just to give ya a comparison, Vanderbilt's opponents are averaging 21 free throw attempts. Texas A&M averages 20 attempts, so the Aggies should be able to keep this close and even win outright simply from the edge at the charity line.
Commodores are also 1-8 ATS last 9 conference home games and 4-13 ATS last 17 off a cover. Take Texas A&M!
|01-10-20||Hornets v. Jazz UNDER 213||92-109||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hornets/Jazz under 213 -109
I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA matchup that has Utah hosting Charlotte. I just think this is too big a number given how strong the Jazz are defensively and how poor the Hornets are on offense.
Utah ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and in their last 5 games are giving up just 101 ppg on 43% shooting. Charlotte ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency, as they are scoring just 104.6 ppg on 44% shooting and that drops to 102 ppg on 43% shooting when on the road.
Another thing here is pace. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play with Charlotte the slowest team in the league.
UNDER is also 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a home win and 36-18 in their last 54 at home off 2 straight games where they scored 110 or more points. UNDER has also cashed in 7 of their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. and is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two in Utah. Take the UNDER !
|01-10-20||Maryland v. Iowa +1.5||Top||49-67||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa +1½ -103
I love the value here with Iowa as a home dog against the Terps. I just feel we are getting an exceptional price on the Hawkeyes due to the fact that they come in off an upset loss at Nebraska. A poor game against the Cornhuskers was to be expected off a devastating loss to Penn State just a few days earlier.
Iowa is also not the same team on the road as they are at home, where they are 6-1 this season. This definitely feels like a must win for the Hawkeyes as they are sitting at 1-3 in Big Ten play. Big thing to note is only one of their first 4 conference games have come at home and that was a 72-52 blowout win over a good Minnesota team.
Maryland 10-0 at home, but just 3-2 on the road and just 1-2 in true road games. Terps have also failed to cover all 3 of their true road games. Maryland is also in a massive letdown spot off a huge home win over then No. 11 Ohio State, which they won 67-55.
Terps are just 1-8 ATS last 9 road games off a home win by 10 or more. Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 5 off a loss and 5-0 ATS last 5 at home. Take Iowa!
|01-09-20||BYU +4 v. St. Mary's||Top||84-87||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on BYU +4 -110
I love the value here with BYU as a small road dog against the Gaels. While the Cougars have had all kinds of problems in recent trips to St. Mary's, this is the best BYU team in years. The Cougars come in having won 6 straight with the most recent being a 25-point beatdown at home against Loyola-Marymount.
While BYU was coasting in their last game, St Mary's found themselves in an exhausting 4 overtime game at Pacific, which they wound up losing 99-107. Four different players played 37 or more minutes, with both Ford and Kuhse hitting the 50-point mark. Ford, teams leading scorer, logging 58 out of possible 60 minutes of game time.
I just don't think 4 days will be enough for them to come out with the kind of energy needed against a really good Cougars team. Take BYU!
|01-09-20||Arizona v. Oregon -3||73-74||Loss||-110||20 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Oregon -3 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks laying a short number at home against the Wildcats in Thursday's huge Pac-12 showdown. Both teams come in ranked in the Top 25 and have just 3 losses on their resume. However, Oregon has played the much tougher schedule, has the more impressive wins and one of the top home court advantages in the country.
Arizona started out the season 9-0, but only one of those wins was against a team ranked in the Top 75 and that was a home victory against Illinois way back in early November. Since that perfect 9-0 start the Wildcats are just 2-3. Books have also been giving Arizona way too much love, as they are just 2-6 ATS last 8.
Oregon on the other hand is 11-4 ATS on the season and have won all 8 of their home games this season. Another factor is that Arizona has only played one true road game all season and that was back on Dec. 7th. I just think this is going to be too tough a spot for the Wildcats to keep it close. Take Oregon!
|01-09-20||Cavs +7 v. Pistons||115-112||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cavs +7 -109
The Cavs are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Pistons. These two teams are in the second leg of a home-and-home split as they just played at Cleveland on Tuesday. Detroit won that game 115-113, but needed to outscore the Cavs 31-18 in the 4th quarter to do so.
It's not easy beating a team twice in a row in such a short period of time, even against a bad team like the Cavs. Detroit also has no business laying this big of a number right now. Pistons are down 4 of their best players in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Markieff Morris. Prior to beating Cleveland, Detroit had gone just 2-9 in their previous 11 games and only covered the spread in 3 of those contests.
Cavs are 20-7-1 ATS last 28 games vs a team like the Pistons that have won fewer than 40% of their games and Detroit is a mere 3-9-1 ATS last 13 off a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland!
|01-08-20||UC-Santa Barbara -8 v. Cal Poly||63-45||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Santa Barbara -8 -109
UC-Santa Barbara is worth a look here laying single-digits on the road against Cal Poly. These two teams aren't even close in terms of talent. The Gauchos are ranked 145th in KenPom, while the Mustangs are way back 331st.
All 3 of Cal Poly's wins this season have come at home, but two of those are against non-Div 1 schools. They lost to Fresno State by a score of 62-37 (Bulldogs No. 133) and to CS-Bakersfield by a score of 72-50 (No. 236).
On top of that, UC-Santa Barbara has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in the series (covering 9 of the 12) and their average margin of victory is 11 ppg. The Mustangs are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a home win and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 4 or more games in a row. Take UC-Santa Barbara!
|01-08-20||Long Beach State +6.5 v. CS-Northridge||77-95||Loss||-109||20 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Long Beach State +6½ -109
I really like the value here with the 49ers as a decently priced road dog against the Matadors. These two teams come in with identical records at 5-11, but note that Long Beach State has a win over Providence, while CS-Northridge's best win is against Fresno State.
This isn't just a game the 49ers can cover, but they can win here outright. Something they have done in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Long Beach State has also gone 4-0-1 ATS last 5 times they have faced a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
They are also 55-34 ATS last 89 on the road vs teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better and 24-10 in their last 34 vs teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards a game. Take Long Beach State!
|01-08-20||Arkansas v. LSU -5||77-79||Loss||-109||21 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on LSU -5 -109
LSU is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. Arkansas comes with an impressive 12-1 record, but a lot of that is a favorable schedule. Only two of those wins have come against a team ranked in the Top 100 of the KenPom rankings.
They have repeatedly been overvalued because of their strong record, as they come in a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Also, they come in allowing just 59.8 ppg, but that number sky rockets to 69.7 ppg on the road and they will be facing a LSU team that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, scoring 81 ppg on 50% shooting. Not to mention the Tigers are only giving up 62 ppg and 38% shooting at home and Arkansas is only hitting 40% from the field away from home.
Razorbacks are 11-34 ATS last 45 road games vs a team that is shooting 48% or better from the field and 10-22 ATS in their last 32 overall vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take LSU!
|01-08-20||Vanderbilt +16 v. Auburn||Top||79-83||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Weeknight PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +16 -109
I love the value here with the Commodores catching a huge number on the road against the Tigers. No question Auburn is the better team, but they are simply way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 record.
It's not always easy getting up for a conference game against a bottom feeder like Vandy and I think that will be the case here, as the Tigers are off a huge road win against Mississippi State in their SEC opener and have a big home game on deck against Georgia.
Vandy doesn't get a ton of love with a mere 8-5 record, but note that all 5 of their losses have come against teams ranked in the Top 110 of the country and all 5 have come by 9 or fewer. That includes two overtime losses to Richmond and SMU.
Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite with the only cover coming against Lipscomb, who is ranked 225th. Take Vanderbilt!
|01-08-20||George Washington +11.5 v. St. Louis||58-63||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on George Washington +11½ -109
I really like the value here with the Colonials as a double-digit dog against the Billikens. St Louis just hasn't been the same team since they lost sharpshooter Gibson Jimmerson. They are 4-1 without him, but two of those wins have come by a mere 3-points and the other was a 10-point win against Bethune-Cookman.
Thing is they are still getting a ton of love from the books because they are 12-3 on the season. Also, George Washington has gone just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last 4, but did only lost by 5 to St Bonaventure in their last game and did so shooting just 9 of 27 from deep.
Even when they are at full strength St Louis is not a team to back as a big favorite. Over the last 2 seasons the Billikens are a mere 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more. They are also 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home. Colonials are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take George Washington!
|01-08-20||Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 209||112-110||Loss||-110||20 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA -Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Raptors/Hornets under 209 -110
The UNDER is worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Hornets hosting the Raptors. UNDER has cashed in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games and a big reason for that is they have had to really slow things down with all the injuries. They have been without Siakam, Powell and Gasol for a while now and just recently lost VanVleet.
Last night they played at home against the Blazers and that game finished with a combined 200 points with a total of 221. Note that Portland had seen each of their previous 6 games see a combined score of 210 or more with 5 of those going for at least 225.
With Toronto playing on no rest, expect them to slow things down even more and Charlotte will have no problem joining in, as they are dead last in the NBA in pace of play and rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER!
|01-08-20||St Bonaventure +3 v. George Mason||61-49||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on St Bonaventure +3 -110
Easy play here on the Bonnies getting points at George Mason. St Bonaventure got off to a shaky start this season, going just 1-4 in their first 5 games, but have gone 8-1 in their last 9 with the only loss coming on the road against a good Buffalo team by just 5.
George Mason comes in with an impressive 11-3 record, but they are not as good as that mark would lead you to believe. The Patriots played a super easy non-conference schedule. Their only win against a team in the Top 150 was a 4-point victory against New Mexico State. The other two games against top teams resulted in a 23-point loss to Maryland and a 34-point loss to TCU.
George Mason opened up conference play against VCU this past weekend and lost 72-59 at home to VCU in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. Simply put the wrong team is favored in this one. Take St. Bonaventure!
|01-07-20||Iowa v. Nebraska +8||Top||70-76||Win||100||23 h 60 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +8 -110
I love the value here with the Cornhuskers as a near double-digit home dog against the Hawkeyes. This might seem like a fair price given how good Iowa has looked early on and the fact that Nebraska just got smoked by 17 at home as a 4.5-point dog to Rutgers, but this is all about the spot.
These two schools don't really like each other and I'm confident we get a max effort here from the Cornhuskers at home. As for Iowa, they could be in for a bit of a letdown in this one. Hawkeyes let a late lead slip away in an emotional and heated 86-89 loss to Penn State on Saturday.
Starting guard CJ Fredrick went down with an ankle injury in the 1st half and wasn't able to return and while listed as questionable probably doesn't play. That makes an already weak bench that much weaker and let's not forget they are playing on just 2 days rest and in their first true road game since going to ISU back on Dec. 12th.
Hawks are just 6-18 ATS last 24 on the road and Nebraska has faired well at home against high-scoring teams like Iowa, going 19-9 ATS in their last 28 at home vs a team that averages 77 or more points/game. Take Nebraska!
|01-07-20||Wolves v. Grizzlies -3||112-119||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grizzlies -3 -109
These two teams come in with similar records, as Memphis is 15-22 and the Wolves are 14-21. However, it's not a surprise for the Grizzlies to be struggling and that's why I think there's value with Memphis in this game.
Grizzlies come in having won 3 of 4 and have been covering at a very high rate over the last month. Since Dec. 9th Memphis has gone 10-4-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +6.5 ppg. As for Minnesota, they have won 4 of 6 since losing 11 straight, but those wins have come against the Kings, Nets, Warriors and Cavs.
Wolves are also just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Grizz are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 at home. Take Memphis!
|01-07-20||Tennessee +6 v. Missouri||69-59||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +6 -110
The Volunteers are worth a look here as a dog against the Tigers. It's been rough sledding for Tennessee since losing starting point guard Lamonte Turner. Vols have lost 4 of 5, but it has come against some stiff competition (Memphis, Cincinnati, Wisconsin and LSU).
I just think it led to an inflated line on Missouri, who just can't be trusted to lay this kind of number with how they struggle to score and their methodical pace. Tigers are 120th in offensive AdjO and 290th in tempo.
Not to mention this is a bit of a flat spot for Missouri after laying it all on the line in their last game against Kentucky, who everyone gives their best shot. Vols have gone an impressive 10-3 ATS last 13 road games after playing 3 or more games in a row at home. Take Tennessee!
|01-07-20||Providence +8 v. Marquette||81-80||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +8 -109
I like the value here with the Friars as a near double-digit dog against the Golden Eagles. Even though Providence comes in off 3 straight impressive wins over Texas, Georgetown and at DePaul, I still think they are a bit undervalued due to their poor 6-6 start to the season.
We are also seeing Marquette a bit overvalued here at home after they just had their way with No. 10 Villanova 71-60, improving them to 8-0 at home. No question the Golden Eagles should be favored, but this is too many points in a game they could easily suffer a letdown after that big win over the Wildcats.
Marquette is just 2-5 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a losing road record, while the Friars are a31-16 ATS last 47 off an upset win as a dog. Take Providence!
|01-07-20||Florida v. South Carolina +5.5||81-68||Loss||-109||19 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on South Carolina +5½ -109
The Gamecocks are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Gators. South Carolina comes in off a shocking 56-63 loss at home to Stetson as a 22.5-point favorite. Gamecocks have had a problem not showing up against lessor teams this year, but there's no concerns of them not coming to play in this one.
One thing to note about that loss to Stetson is it came way back on Dec. 30th, not an ideal time for teams playing during the holidays and that was their only game since Dec. 22nd. No doubt head coach Frank Martin has had their full attention in practice over the last week.
We know the talent is there. This team went on the road and beat Virginia as a 10-point dog and also has a 13-point win at Clemson as a 6-point dog. Gators have been overvalued all season, as they are just 4-9 ATS and have lost both of their true road games at UConn and Butler. Take South Carolina!
|01-06-20||Jazz v. Pelicans +3.5||Top||128-126||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +3½ -115
I love the value here with New Orleans getting points at home against the Jazz. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans, who are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best stretch of basketball this year. New Orleans is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The only loss coming by 10-points at the Lakers.
I get Utah is also playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, but this is not a good spot. Utah is playing their 3rd and final game of a 3-game road trip and have already secured a winning trip with wins at Chicago and Orlando.
The other thing to note with the Jazz and their recent run is the majority of these wins have come against bad teams. In fact, only one of the 10 wins in their 10-1 run have come against a team that has a winning record. Take New Orleans!
|01-06-20||UL - Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 146||81-73||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UL - Lafayette/Appalachian State under 146 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's Sun Belt matchup between UL-Lafayette and Appalachian State. I think we are getting value with the total due to the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns come in averaging 73 ppg while giving up 74.6 ppg.
Thing is Lafayette was playing much faster in non-conference than they are early on in Sun Belt play. Ragin' Cajuns are averaging just 67.2 ppg and allowing 67.5 ppg in their 4 conference games. You combine that with the fact that the Mountaineers are giving up just 63.8 ppg overall and 61.6 ppg at home and you can see why the books have completely missed the mark in this one.
UNDER is 22-7 in Lafayette's last 29 games vs a team that is giving up 64 or fewer points/game 15+ games into the season. UNDER is also 9-3 in Appalachian State's last 12 games overall, 9-1 in their last 10 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|01-05-20||Wolves -2 v. Cavs||118-103||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Wolves -2 -109
I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road favorite against the Cavs. Minnesota has some key guys hurt right now, but Cleveland is a complete mess and are an easy fade at any line close to a pick'em.
Timberwolves have also done a nice job with the recent injuries, as they have won 3 of 5 and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. Cavs are 8-19 ATS last 27 home games off a home loss and 4-13 ATS last 17 after losing 4/5 of their last 6.
We also see that home dogs who are getting outscored by 9+ points/game are a mere 48-82 (37%) ATS since 1996 when coming off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take Minnesota!
|01-05-20||Northwestern +9.5 v. Minnesota||Top||68-77||Win||100||19 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +9½ -108
Love the value here with the Wildcats as a near double-digit dog against the Gophers. I just think we are getting a great price on Northwestern because of the fact that they come in having lost 3 straight. However, they just as easily could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 5 or less points.
Minnesota is a good team, but should not be laying this big a number inside Big Ten play. Gophers have already lost twice at home to Oklahoma and DePaul, two teams I think are pretty similar in terms of talent to the Wildcats.
Minnesota also has a history of playing down to their competition, as they are just 8-21 ATS last 29 vs a team with a losing record. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 9 meetings in the series. Take Northwestern!
|01-05-20||Manhattan +1 v. Niagara||67-62||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +1 -109
Easy play here on the Jaspers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Manhattan comes in at just 5-5, but opened up MAAC play with a 76-67 win at Canisius as a 5-point dog.
They should have no problem cashing another win and cover on the road against a bad Niagara team that has won just 3-games all season. Manhattan is 9-3 ATS last 12 off a win and are 12-5 ATS last 17 as a dog.
Jaspers should have their way inside against a small Purple Eagles team with their big duo of Warren Williams and Pauley Paulicap. Not only should they get a lot of easy looks, but they also should get a ton of second chances with offensive rebounds.
Niagara did win and cover last time out against Fairfield, but are just 4-10 ATS last 14 off a cover and 2-5 ATS last 7 as a favorite. Take Manhattan!
|01-04-20||Idaho State +8.5 v. CS Sacramento||49-68||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - CS-Sacramento/Idaho St ATS WINNER on Idaho State +8½ -110
The Bengals are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Hornets. This is just too good a price to pass up with Idaho State, who just knocked off Eastern Washington 75-69 as a 7.5-point home dog.
Sacramento State on the other hand is coming off back-to-back losses and are in the midst of a major offensive slump. The Hornets have shot 36% or worse from the field in each of their last 4 games and when you can't score it's hard to cover a big number like this.
Bengals are have covered 5 straight games on the road and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as an underdog. Take Idaho State +8.5!