|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-26-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||111-120||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder.
With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home.
Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State!
|05-25-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||78-116||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
4* Cavs/Raptors NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Cavs -
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the big spread at home in Game 5. Sure Toronto surprised everyone by winning both games at home, but let's not forget what took place in the first two games at Cleveland. The Cavs won by 31 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2. Not only did Cleveland fail to match the intensity of the Raptors in Toronto, but the Raptors shot extremely well in both games.
Toronto now has the Cavaliers full attention and that's bad news for the Raptors. You also have to keep in mind just how much Lowry struggled in Cleveland over the first two games. If he's not playing at an elite level, Toronto has zero chance of keeping this game close. Even if he does play well, it still likely won't be enough to keep pace with a pissed off and highly motivated Cleveland team.
It's also important to note that Cleveland seemed to figure out the Raptors in the 2nd half of Game 4. The Cavs came back from a 16-point halftime deficit to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Look for Cleveland to start off much better at home and be the ones up double-digits at the half. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-24-16||Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder||Top||94-118||Loss||-106||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -
As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2.
The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win.
Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State!
|05-23-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||10 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs -
The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4.
Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer.
Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-22-16||Warriors v. Thunder +3.5||Top||105-133||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +
Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC.
The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series.
Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC!
|05-21-16||Cavs v. Raptors +6.5||Top||84-99||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one.
The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3.
Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3.
Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto!
|05-19-16||Raptors +12 v. Cavs||Top||89-108||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors +
Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days.
Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs.
Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors!
|05-18-16||Thunder v. Warriors OVER 222||Top||91-118||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER
Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%.
Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th.
OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!
|05-17-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||84-115||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Cavs -
I have no problem laying double-digits on Cleveland at home in Game 1 against the Raptors. Toronto is still without starting center Jonas Valanciunas and were fortunate that Miami lost their starting center in Whiteside in the previous series.
The Raptors are also going to find it hard to get up and match the intensity of the Cavaliers in this game. Toronto just laid it all on the line in Game 7 against the Heat on Sunday and 1-day just isn't enough to recover from a series like that.
Cleveland on the other hand has been off since 5/15 and that kind of rest has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Teams coming off a sweep who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent that is playing on 1 day of rest are 18-5-1 ATS the last 24 times this scenario has come up. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-16-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||108-102||Loss||-102||11 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half.
The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace.
Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State!
|05-15-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||89-116||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -
I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7.
I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd.
The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto!
|05-13-16||Raptors v. Heat -4||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation.
The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5.
The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami!
|05-12-16||Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder||99-113||Loss||-108||11 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Spurs -
The Thunder surprised just about everyone but themselves when they went on the road and beat the Spurs for a second time in the series on their home floor. Oklahoma City now has a 3-2 lead and a chance to close out the series on their home floor tonight. I don't think that's going to happen. San Antonio is not a team that's going to panic facing elimination.
The Spurs could have very easily won this series already. Those two losses at home came by a combined 5 points. The Thunder have won the last two in the series behind a couple of dominant performances from Durant and Westbrook and neither one was easy. I look for the Spurs to come up with a gameplan to not only slow OKC's two stars, but get their own offense going. San Antonio shot just 39.8% from the field in the last game and only lost by 4.
Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of 7 or more and the Thunder are just 10-21 in their last 31 with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio!
|05-11-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||91-99||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home.
The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors!
|05-10-16||Thunder v. Spurs -7||Top||95-91||Loss||-106||9 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5.
You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive.
Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio!
|05-09-16||Raptors v. Heat -5.5||Top||87-94||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3.
The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench.
Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto!
|05-08-16||Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 198.5||Top||97-111||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER
I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round.
Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field.
UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER!
|05-07-16||Raptors +5.5 v. Heat||Top||95-91||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly*
|05-06-16||Spurs -2 v. Thunder||Top||100-96||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2.
Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost.
The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio!
|05-05-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||92-96||Loss||-100||10 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors -
Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change.
This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight.
Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto!
|05-04-16||Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs||Top||98-123||Loss||-103||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks +
The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win.
I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons.
Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta!
|05-03-16||Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors||Top||99-110||Loss||-115||12 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers +
I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points.
With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1.
Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers!
|05-02-16||Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5||Top||93-104||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER
The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg.
Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half.
These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.
UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|05-01-16||Pacers v. Raptors -5.5||Top||84-89||Loss||-105||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss.
Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game.
Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors!
|04-30-16||Thunder v. Spurs -6.5||Top||92-124||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs -
San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home.
The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder.
Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close.
Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio!
|04-29-16||Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 194||Top||83-101||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER
These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER.
This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball.
UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER!
|04-28-16||Hawks -2 v. Celtics||Top||104-92||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks -
The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead.
Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4.
Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta!
|04-27-16||Hornets v. Heat -6||Top||90-88||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2.
Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics.
Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat!
|04-26-16||Celtics v. Hawks -7||Top||83-110||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks -
The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory.
Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley.
It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home.
Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks!
|04-26-16||Pacers v. Raptors -6.5||99-102||Loss||-108||7 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors -
Indiana has surprised a lot of people by making this a series, but I'm still confident the Raptors are going to take care of business and advance to the next round. It starts tonight with a must-win in Game 5 at home with the series tied 2-2.
Toronto lost by 17 at Indiana in Game 4, but that wasn't a huge surprise given they used up a lot of energy to take both Game 2 and Game 3. Both of those wins came by at least 11 points and I look for another blowout win in Game 5. The Raptors simply didn't shoot well in Game 4, as they shot just 36.5% from the field and were a miserable 8 for 30 (27%) from long distance. I expect a much better shooting performance at home tonight.
Pacers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Take the Raptors!
|04-25-16||Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder||Top||104-118||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks +
Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed.
Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason.
Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!
|04-24-16||Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5||Top||95-104||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER
I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead.
I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2.
UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER!
|04-23-16||Heat v. Hornets -2||Top||80-96||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets -
The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series.
The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home.
Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2!
|04-22-16||Cavs v. Pistons +5||101-91||Loss||-110||8 h 49 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons +
With the series shifting to Detroit and the Cavaliers holding a 2-0 series lead, I really like the value here with the Pistons catching 5-points at home in Game 3.
Detroit was right there with an excellent shot to win Game 1, but came up short. In Game 2 the Cavaliers caught fire and connected on 20 3-pointers. With Cleveland in line for a bit of a letdown and the Pistons season on the line, I look for Detroit to keep this game close and wouldn't be shocked if they won it outright.
The Cavaliers are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 100+ points in 5 straight games, while the Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit!
|04-21-16||Warriors v. Rockets +5||96-97||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Late Night ATS No Brainer on Rockets +
Houston returns home down 0-2 and will be fighting for their playoff lives in game 3 at home. The key here is that Golden State doesn't feel threatened by the Rockets and will likely make the call to rest Curry another game to ensure he's 100% for the upcoming series against likely the Clippers and Spurs.
Houston knows that this is their chance to make this a series and that a loss here all but ends their season. The Rockets were much more competitive in Game 2 with Curry sidelined. After losing by 26 in the series opener, they lost by just 9. Returning home should be enough for Houston to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset. Keep in mind this is also a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State with a comfortable 2-0 series lead. Take Houston!
|04-21-16||Raptors -1 v. Pacers||Top||101-85||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage.
Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto!
|04-20-16||Blazers +8.5 v. Clippers||81-102||Loss||-107||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night ATS No Brainer on Blazers +
Things couldn't have gone much worse for Portland in their 95-115 loss in Game 1. The Trail Blazers shot a mere 39.8% from the field and just 10 of 30 from behind the 3-point line. The Clippers on the other hand shot 53.8% from the field. I look for things to even out and Portland to put up a much better fight in Game 2.
Portland is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a blowout loss by 20 or more points. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 after scoring 100+ points in 3 straight games. Take Portland!
|04-19-16||Celtics v. Hawks OVER 205.5||72-89||Loss||-108||9 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER
The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field.
Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total.
Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER!
|04-18-16||Pacers v. Raptors -7||Top||87-98||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series.
It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002.
We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!
|04-17-16||Pistons +11 v. Cavs||Top||101-106||Win||100||6 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons +
Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted.
The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball.
Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons!
|04-16-16||Celtics v. Hawks -5.5||Top||101-102||Loss||-105||25 h 14 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks -
I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task.
Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3.
Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta!
|04-16-16||Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 194||100-90||Win||100||19 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER
I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers.
The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball.
UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER!
|04-13-16||Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 214.5||99-107||Loss||-110||13 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER
The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round.
The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.
I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season.
OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER!
|04-12-16||Grizzlies +7.5 v. Clippers||Top||84-110||Loss||-105||13 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round.
The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs.
Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis!
|04-11-16||Mavs v. Jazz -5.5||Top||101-92||Loss||-105||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz -
The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th.
I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable.
Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz!
|04-09-16||Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans||Top||121-100||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns -
Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite.
New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns!
|04-08-16||Grizzlies +6.5 v. Mavs||Top||93-103||Loss||-110||10 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies +
Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors.
Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game.
Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5!
|04-07-16||Wolves v. Kings -4.5||Top||105-97||Loss||-105||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings -
Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings.
Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points!
|04-06-16||Rockets v. Mavs +2||Top||86-88||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs +
Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed).
This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play. Take Dallas!
|04-05-16||Suns v. Hawks UNDER 208||Top||90-103||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER
I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall.
Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals.
UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER!
|04-04-16||Villanova +3 v. North Carolina||Top||77-74||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
5* NCAA Championship Game No Limit Top Play on Villanova +
Both teams are coming off impressive wins in the Final 4 on Saturday. North Carolina defeated ACC rival Syracuse 83-66, while Villanova laid it on Oklahoma 95-51. I cashed in a huge ticket on the Wildcats against the Sooners (Game of Year) and I'm back on the Villanova bandwagon in the title game.
Not to take anything away from the Tar Heels, but Syracuse was a favorable matchup for them, as unlike the other teams the Orange had beat up that point, North Carolina had a great understanding of how to attack their zone. The key to beating the Tar Heels is to force them into taking outside shots and limit easy looks in transition, two things Villanova does extremely well. I also look for the Wildcats to take away Marcus Paige to disrupt the flow of the Tar Heels offense.
On the flip side of things, North Carolina defense isn't overwhelming and I look for them to struggle against the Wildcats, who can beat you both with the outside shot and their ability to drive inside and get easy looks with their passing. If the outside shots continue to fall at the rate they have been so far in the tournament, Villanova has a chance to take control of this game and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take the Wildcats!
|04-03-16||Pacers -4 v. Knicks||Top||92-87||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers -
The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls.
New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play.
There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points!
|04-02-16||Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma||Top||95-51||Win||100||25 h 1 m||Show|
5* Final Four Game of the Year on Villanova -
I'm not the least bit concerned about the fact that Oklahoma beat Villanova 78-55 earlier this season. While it's worth noting, these are two completely different teams right now. That game also saw Oklahoma shoot lights out, hitting 47% from the field and 54% from behind the 3-point line (14 of 26). Villanova on the other hand played one of their worst games of the season. The Wildcats shot just 31.7% from the field and were a miserable 4-32 (12.5%) from behind the 3-point line.
Oklahoma is simply not that good of a defensive team and I'm confident we are going to see a much better showing from the Wildcats offense in this one. Let's not forget they just knocked off the best team in the Big 12 in Kansas, so taking down Oklahoma shouldn't be a problem.
The big key here for me is the Villanova defense and how I believe it will give the Sooners problems. The Wildcats have been sensational on the defensive end in the NCAA Tournament holding all 4 opponents under 70 points. They made a talented Iowa offense look awful and held Kansas to just 59 points.
One thing that gets lost in that first meeting with the Sooners, is the success that Villanova had against Buddy Hield. They held him to just 18 points on 6 of 17 shooting (zero assists). They made him work for everything he got and that's a staple for this team. Jay Wright isn't going to let your best player dominate the game. He's going to make the other guys step up. Without Hield playing at an elite level, I just don't trust the Sooners.
If Villanova continues to shoot the ball as well as they have so far in the tournament, I think this game could actually get out of hand and the Wildcats could end up cruising to an easy win. Oklahoma is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers per game and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Lay the points!
|04-01-16||Wizards v. Suns +7||106-99||Push||0||12 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA Late-Night ATS Heavy Hitter on Suns +
Phoenix is showing great value here as a home dog against the slumping Wizards. We are seeing a big line here due to Washington being the team that desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff race, as they are 3-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east. The Wizards failed in a similar spot last time out, losing 111-120 at Sacramento and have dropped 4 of 5 overall.
Phoenix is one of the worst teams in the league, but they have been playing much better of late. They have covered 6 of their last 10 and were right there with a chance to win their last game at Milwaukee, but ended up losing and failing to cover in a 94-105 loss as a 8-point dog.
I look for the Suns to come out motivated in this one at home, as they go up against former teammate Markieff Morris, who wanted nothing to do with them and demanded a trade. You also have to factor in the Wizards playing with tired legs, as this will be their 4th straight on the road and 3rd game overall in the last 4 days.
Phoenix is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a loss by 10 or more points, while the Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the points!
|04-01-16||Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||99-95||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +
Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team.
While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes.
With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis.
Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points!
|04-01-16||Nets v. Knicks UNDER 202||91-105||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER
These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points.
Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace.
New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10.
UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER!
|03-31-16||Celtics +3.5 v. Blazers||109-116||Loss||-108||11 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Celtics +
This might seem like a small number for the Blazers to be laying at home, where they are a respectable 24-12 on the season, but I really like the Celtics in this spot. Boston is going to come out extremely motivated off an ugly 24-point loss at the Clippers in their last game. They have had a full 2 days to let that defeat sink in and keep in mind they had won 4 straight prior to that loss.
Portland comes in having won 2 straight, but those wins came against the 76ers and Kings and neither was all that impressive. They only beat Philadelphia at home by 3 and Sacramento by just 12 with the Kings resting Cousins, Rondo and Gay. Overall the Blazers are not playing well. They are just 6-8 in their last 14 and all 6 wins have come against below average teams. One of their losses during this stretch was a 23-point defeat at Boston. The Celtics had some big advantages in that game that I'm confident will carry over to this game.
Portland is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 or more points, while Boston is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road dog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more points. Take the points!
|03-31-16||George Washington +2.5 v. Valparaiso||Top||76-60||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
5* NIT Championship Game ATS No Brainer on George Washington +
The Colonials are showing great value here as a dog against the Crusaders in the NIT Championship Game. George Washington played in the much stronger A-10 conference, while the Valparaiso built up their resume against bad teams in the Horizon. I was also much more impressed with the Colonials performance against San Diego St in the semifinals. George Washington made a very good Aztecs team look like they didn't belong on the same court.
Offensively both of these teams have star players that they rely on. Alec Peters averages 18.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Crusaders, while Tyler Cavanaugh averages 16.9 ppg and 7.6 rpg. The key here in my opinion is the supporting casts, which I give a strong edge to George Washington. The Colonials also get big contributions from Patricio Garino (14.1) and Kevin Larsen (12.1 ppg), while the only player for Valparaiso averaging double-figures is Keith Carter (10.4).
Valparaiso is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. George Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 33-18 ATS in their last 51 against strong rebounding teams, who average 40 or more per game. Take the points!
|03-30-16||Suns v. Bucks -6.5||Top||94-105||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks -
This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road).
I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg.
The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points!
|03-30-16||Clippers v. Wolves +5.5||99-79||Loss||-104||9 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +
I really like the value here with the Timberwolves as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers. Minnesota may be out of playoff contention, but are a young team fighting to get better down the stretch. That's evident by the fact that the Timberwolves have won 3 of their last 4 and are 8-4 ATS in their last 12.
I just don't see Los Angeles being motivated at all for this game against a bad team like Minnesota. Los Angeles is basically locked into the No.4 seed in the west. They are 5-games back of No. 3 Oklahoma City and 5.5-games ahead of No. 5 Memphis. LA also comes in off a big home game against the Celtics and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow at Oklahoma City, which is a nationally televised game on TNT.
Clippers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Minnesota on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record. Take the points!
|03-30-16||Hawks v. Raptors -1||97-105||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors -
We find the Raptors in a very similar spot to the Pistons, which we cashed on last night as a 3-point dog in a 88-82 outright win. Toronto is playing at home off an ugly 19-point home loss to the Thunder against a Hawks team that comes in having won 4 straight and 14 of their last 17 overall.
As a result we are getting big time value on the Raptors at home, where they are a dominant 28-9 SU on the season. We can expect a max effort here from Toronto not only due to them coming off that ugly home loss, but this being a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in the east over the Hawks.
One thing to keep in mind about Atlanta's recent run, is it's come against a soft schedule. Over their last 14 wins, only three have come against a team sitting in the top 5 in either conference and one of those was a home victory against the injury-depleted Grizzlies. One of their losses during this stretch was a 8-point defeat at Toronto, their third straight loss in the series.
Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their 9 home games this season against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto!
|03-29-16||Thunder v. Pistons +3||82-88||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons +
I was on the wrong end of Oklahoma City's 119-100 win at Toronto last night as a 3-point favorite, but that's not stopping me from going against the Thunder again tonight. The fact that Oklahoma City is almost an identical favorite at Detroit, who isn't considered to be as good as the Raptors is a good sign the books believe Detroit is the sharp play in this one.
This is a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they really came out with a lot of energy against Toronto and have a huge home game on deck against the Clippers Thursday, which will be nationally televised on TNT. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder were out for revenge last night against the Raptors, who had beat them on their home floor earlier this season.
I just don't see Oklahoma City coming out with that same energy in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road against a Detroit team they beat by 16 in the previous matchup. The Pistons on the other hand are going to come out extremely motivated following an embarrassing 95-112 home loss to the Hawks.
Detroit is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Thunder on the other hand are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after playing a game as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points. Take the points!
|03-29-16||BYU v. Valparaiso -2||Top||70-72||Push||0||8 h 24 m||Show|
5* NIT No Limit NCAAB *BEST BET* on Valparaiso -
I really like the value we are getting with Valparaiso as a small favorite in tonight's NIT Semifinal matchup against BYU. The Crusaders have really been impressive in the NIT with double-digit wins over Texas Southern (84-73), Florida State (81-69) and St Mary's (60-44). This is a team that was expected to make the NCAA Tournament and are out to prove something in the NIT.
BYU is a quality team and have also won 3 straight to reach the semifinals. However, they were fortunate to get by Virginia Tech (80-77) and had to hold on for a 88-82 win over Creighton. The Cougars were just 10-8 on the road and will be playing a long way from home in this one.
Offensively, BYU comes in averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg. A big part of that is their 3-point shooting, as they average 9 makes a game and are shooting 38.4% from long-distance. Valparaiso is a defensive juggernaut, as they only give up 62.2 ppg. They do an excellent job of limiting opponents from the outside. They only give up an average of 6 made 3-pointers per game and are holding opponents to just 32.7% shooting from behind the 3-point line.
On the flip side of this, the Crusaders average 75.7 ppg and will be taking on a BYU defense that gives up 75.4 ppg on the road. I'll take my chances on the team that will have the much easier time offensively and defense is one thing that always travels well. BYU is also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games in post-season tournament play, while Valpo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3. Lay the points!
|03-28-16||Spurs v. Grizzlies +7.5||101-87||Loss||-110||9 h 6 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies are currently sitting 5th in the west standings, but injuries have them flying under the radar to close out the season. Memphis desperately needs to secure a playoff spot, so they can turn their focus to getting healthy for the postseason.
This is definitely a game the Grizzlies can win, even though the books have them listed as a big home dog. San Antonio will be resting Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, plus there figures to be a good chance that Kawhi Leonard sits this one out. Either way, it should allow Memphis to keep this game close. Keep in mind they just lost at San Antonio by just 6-points as a 13-point road dog in their last contest and that was with Parker, Ginobili and Duncan all playing.
Memphis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Take the points!
|03-28-16||Hawks v. Bulls +3||102-100||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bulls +
The Bulls are being way undervalued here due to their recent performances. Chicago followed up consecutive losses to the Knicks in a home-and-home set with an ugly 89-111 loss at Orlando on Saturday. Chicago is now a full 2 games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east and simply can't afford to lose this game.
Atlanta has been playing extremely well of late, as they have gone 13-3 over their last 16 games, but I just don't see the Hawks matching the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Atlanta will be playing their 2nd straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. As poorly as Chicago has been playing, they are still a respectable 24-13 at home.
Chicago did lose the most recent matchup in Atlanta 88-103, but are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. The Bulls also seem to step up against the better teams. Chicago is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. Take the points!
|03-28-16||Thunder v. Raptors +2.5||Top||119-100||Loss||-103||9 h 40 m||Show|
5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +
The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west.
Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road.
Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points!
|03-27-16||Wizards -6.5 v. Lakers||101-88||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Wizards -
Washington is 3-games back of the final playoff spot in the east with just 10 games left on the schedule. To say this is a must-win game against the Lakers is an understatement, as Washington can't like their chances in their next game at Golden State. I look for the Wizards to treat this like a playoff game and that should be more than enough to take down the Lakers and cover this spread.
We are getting some value here due to the Wizards coming in off an ugly home loss to the Timberwolves as a 9-point favorite, which followed a 21-point home loss to the Hawks. Los Angeles is just playing out the season at this point and haven't shown much signs of life. Last time out they got beat by the Nuggets at home by 11. The Lakers are just 7-30 in their last 37 overall.
Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. They are also just 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100+ points. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after 2 straight games allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Lay the points!
|03-27-16||Notre Dame +10 v. North Carolina||Top||74-88||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +
These two teams met twice already. Notre Dame won at home 80-76 back on Feb. 6, but were destroyed 47-78 in the ACC Tournament. That ugly loss in the most recent matchup combined with the Tar Heels recent rout of Indiana has created some decent value here on the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame went on a ridiculous 24-0 run and the Irish shot a miserable 30% from the field.
You can overreact to one game and I don't think it's out of the question that Notre Dame pulls off the upset. Either way I like them to keep it within double-digits. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to blowout a team from the same conference in the Big Dance, as each team knows what the opponent wants to do on both sides of the ball.
Underdogs this deep in the tournament are typically a wise investment and Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a neutral court underdog over the last 3 seasons. Irish are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. Take the points!
|03-26-16||Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 145||Top||64-59||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kansas/Villanova UNDER
This is going to seem like a low total based on what these two teams have done offensively in their first three games of the tournament. Villanova has scored 86, 87 and 92 points, while Kansas has put up 105, 73 and 79. The key is what these two teams have done defensively.
The Wildcats are only giving up an average of 64.3 ppg in the tournament and Kansas is allowing just 67.7 ppg. I look for the defenses to outperform the offenses in this one, especially with the magnitude of this game and the winner going to the Final 4. Opponents are shooting just 39.7% against the Jayhawks on the season and that's saying something given the talent they face in the Big 12. Offensively Kansas shoots 42.2% from the 3-point line, but that plays into the strength of the Villanova defense, which has held opponents to just 33.9% shooting from long distance.
UNDER is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 games after after 15+ games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-4 on the season against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Jayhawks last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3 and 8-2 in their last 10 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!
|03-26-16||Jazz -7 v. Wolves||93-84||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
4* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -
This might seem like a big number for Utah to be laying on the road, but the situation heavily favors the Jazz to not to turn this into a blowout. Utah is currently sitting tied with the Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west, while Minnesota is just playing out the season. That's a big advantage for the Jazz with the Timberwolves in a huge letdown spot.
Minnesota went on the road and pulled off a big upset last night, defeating the Wizards 132-129 as a 9-point underdog. The key is the game went into double-overtime. All 5 starters for the Timberwolves logged 40+ minutes. Coming out with any kind of motivation will be difficult to say the least, especially against a team like the Jazz who get after you defensively.
Minnesota is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 0 days of rest, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 125 or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after their starting 5 combined for 160 or more minutes (combined for 220). Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Lay the points!
|03-26-16||Hawks v. Pistons -1||112-95||Loss||-100||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons -
The Pistons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Hawks. Both teams are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which gives Detroit a big advantage playing at home. The Pistons are also coming into this game red-hot with 5 straight wins and are a solid 24-12 at home.
It's important to note how both of these teams have responded in this spot. Atlanta has lost both times this season when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing the first at home. Detroit on the other hand has been money on no rest at home, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8.
Another key factor here is motivation. Detroit is fighting for their playoff lives and have revenge on their mind from a heartbreaking 114-118 home loss to Detroit back on 3/16. Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after 2 or more consecutive games that have gone over the total, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a game as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the Pistons!
|03-25-16||Nuggets v. Lakers +3||116-105||Loss||-100||12 h 9 m||Show|
4* NBA Late-Night ATS Annihilator on Lakers +
The Lakers are a difficult team for the public to back, even when playing at home against a bad team like the Nuggets. As a result, we find LA showing big time value at home tonight. Denver barely held on to beat the 76ers at home 104-103 in their last game. With no shot at making the playoffs, I don't see the Nuggets being all that interested in this one, especially with a much bigger game against the Clippers on deck.
The Lakers come in off a 107-119 loss at Phoenix, but had been playing well over their previous 8 games, which all were at home. This is one of the rare spots LA has left on the schedule, where they can go in confident that they can get a win, so I expect a big effort here in this one.
Denver is without Danilo Gallinari and there's a good chance Kenneth Faried will miss this game as well. These are two of the most important players for the Nuggets. Keep in mind Faried had 28 and 15 in Denver's win at LA earlier this season.
Nuggets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists, while the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a game with 15 or less assists. Take the points!
|03-25-16||Wisconsin v. Notre Dame -1||Top||56-61||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament No Limit *BEST BET* on Notre Dame -
The Fighting Irish are showing great value here at basically a pick against the Badgers. Wisconsin is getting a lot of love for their wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier, but both of those teams played right into the strength of the Badgers defense.
Wisconsin does an exceptional job of running teams off the 3-point line and forcing them to beat you inside. Teams like Pitt and Xavier that rely on the outside shot are ones they can compete with.
On the flip side of this, teams who efficient at scoring inside have made easy work of the Badgers defense this season. If you can score on Wisconsin's defense, you can put the game away, as the Badgers are extremely limited on the offensive side of the floor.
It's going to take a light's out shooting performance from Wisconsin just to keep this game close and I'll take my chances on that not happening. Take Notre Dame!
|03-25-16||Iowa State v. Virginia -5||71-84||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament ATS No Brainer on Virginia -
Virginia is a team that simply isn't getting the respect they deserve here against the Cyclones. The Cavaliers have gone 15-3 over their last 18 games and those 3 losses came by a combined 8 points. Iowa State is a quality team, but are going to be outmatched in this one. The Cyclones have had an easy route to the Sweet 16, having played Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock. Even with those two wins, Iowa State is just 7-7 over their last 14.
The key here is how these two teams matchup. Iowa State wants to push the pace and speed the game up. That's not something you want to do against a dominant defensive team like Virginia. The Cavaliers aren't known for having a great offense, but they were actually one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country. Iowa State doesn't play any defense and has zero to no depth, which I believe will be a huge factor with Virginia's aggressive style. Both offense should be able to score, the key is that the Cavaliers will the ones getting more stops on the defensive side of the ball. Lay the points!
|03-24-16||Maryland +6.5 v. Kansas||63-79||Loss||-106||29 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Sweet 16 Vegas Insider on Maryland +
I really like the value here with the Terrapins as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks. Kansas is the #1 seed and have rolled past their first two opponents, covering the spread in both games, including a 13-point win over a red-hot UConn team in their last game. Maryland on the other hand struggled to put away South Dakota State and needed a late run to win comfortably over Hawaii. I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated.
The key here is that the Terrapins possess a very difficult matchup for Kansas. Maryland has the bigs inside to match up with the Jayhawks frontline. Kansas also plays a style of defense that is going to benefit Trimble and company. When the Terrapins offense struggles, it's due to teams taking away the drive from Trimble and forcing him to shoot. Kansas wants to take away the 3-point shot and are willing to let their opponents penetrate. This is going to allow Maryland to get into a rhythm offensively and it's not out of the question that they win this game outright. Take the points!
|03-24-16||Cavs v. Nets +8||95-104||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nets +
I was fortunate enough to get this bet in early before the line dropped, but I'm still all over Brooklyn in this spot (play is still recommended at current line of +6). This is a horrible spot for the Cavaliers and there's a good chance multiple starters (including LeBron) will set this game out. Cleveland is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 5th game overall in the last 7 days.
When this team isn't at full strength and/or are playing with tired legs, they have really struggled. We saw them lose at Miami by 21 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and that was with no one taking the night off. Prior to that they lost 85-94 at Utah in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
Brooklyn is a bad team and has nothing left to play for, but are also a team we don't have to worry about tanking. That makes the Nets a dangerous team at home tonight against the Cavs. Brooklyn has been playing much better of late and a big reason for that is they are giving guys like Sean Kilpatrick a chance to showcase their talents. They are still playing extremely hard and I don't see that changing, regardless of who suits up for Cleveland in this one.
Cavaliers are just 11-21 ATS on the season against a team with a losing record, 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games after scoring 100+ in 4 straight games. Take the points!
|03-24-16||Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4||Top||69-92||Win||100||27 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Villanova -
The Wildcats are showing great value here against the Hurricanes. Villanova is shooting the lights out of the basketball right now and may very well be the best team in the tournament that no one is talking about with a legit shot to win it all. Previous years the Wildcats have stumbled in the tournament, but they came in not shooting the ball well.
This year's team is a whole different beast. Not only can they light it up from the outside, but they can penetrate and score inside, plus get easy baskets in transition. They are also a lot better defensively than what people give them credit for. The pressure they put on the Iowa guards put the game away early. Villanova does an exceptional job of taking away the opposing teams point guard. If the Wildcats can limit Rodriguez the Hurricanes are going to struggle to keep up offensively. Other team that's have taken away Rodriguez have had great success against the Hurricanes and those teams aren't nearly as strong defensively as Villanova. Lay the points!
|03-23-16||Mavs v. Blazers -6||Top||103-109||Push||0||11 h 9 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Blazers -
The Trail Blazers are showing great value here at home against the Mavericks. These two teams just played in Dallas on Sunday, which the Mavericks won 132-120 in overtime. It's extremely difficult beating the same team in consecutive games, especially when that next meeting is on the road.
I look for Portland to come out with one of their best efforts of the season tonight and put away the Mavericks early. Even with the win over the Blazers, Dallas is just 2-7 in their last 9 overall. Things don't figure to get better now that they lost Chandler Parsons to a season-ending injury.
We are also catching Portland undervalue due to a brutal schedule they have had to deal with of late. The Blazers have played 11 of their last 13 on the road. There's no doubt in my mind they will be extremely motivated to get back on track at home. This is also a tough spot for the Mavericks, as they could find themselves looking ahead to Friday's road showdown against the Warriors.
Dallas is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games after covering the spread in their last contest and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against a team with a winning home record. Portland is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 3 of their last 4 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Lay the points!
|03-23-16||Raptors v. Celtics -2||79-91||Win||100||9 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Celtics -
The Celtics are showing big time value here as a small home favorite against the Raptors. Toronto is simply way overvalued right now due to having won 4 straight and 13 of their last 16 overall. The Celtics snapped out of a funk that saw them lose 4 straight with back-to-back blowout wins over the 76ers and Magic.
I look for Boston to come out the more motivated team in this one, as they are sick and tired of losing to the Raptors. Boston has lost all 3 of the previous meetings this season, including a recent 14-point defeat at Toronto last week.
The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after scoring 105+ points in back-to-back games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Toronto on the other hand is just 11-22 ATS in their last 33 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6. Lay the points!
|03-23-16||Hawks +1 v. Wizards||122-101||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Hawks +
This is a great spot to back the Hawks in basically a pick'em on the road against the Wizards. Atlanta is going to be out for some serious revenge here, as they just lost at home to Washington on Monday 102-117 as a 7-point favorite.
It's extremely difficult to beat the same team in consecutive games, especially a quality team like the Hawks. Washington is simply getting too much respect due to have won 5 straight. They also played a near perfect game against Atlanta, shooting 50.5% from the field. The other key here is the Hawks have been playing extremely well of late. Atlanta had won 5 straight and 10 of their previous 12 before the defeat to the Wizards.
Washington is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset win as a home dog and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a double-digit loss at home, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Atlanta!
|03-22-16||Creighton v. BYU -4||82-88||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* Creighton/BYU NIT ATS No Brainer on BYU -
I believe we are getting some great value here with BYU due to the fact that Kyle Collinsworth is listed on the injury report as questionable with the flu. Collinsworth has had a couple days to recover and his teammates are confident that he will be out there for this game. I expect the same from the senior standout.
While there's a good chance Collinsworth plays, we know for sure that Creighton will be without guard Isaiah Zierden. That's a big loss. Zierden averages 10.2 ppg and is the Bluejays top 3-point threat.
The other big key here is the game being played at BYU, where the Cougars are 15-2 on the season. Creighton on the other hand is just 6-9 on the road and have dropped 4 straight away from home. Both teams average right around 80.0 ppg offensively, but BYU allowed just 69.5 ppg at home and Creighton gives up 77.7 ppg on the road.
BYU failed to cover the spread in their last game against Virginia Tech, but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 following a game where they failed to beat the number. The Cougars are also 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Lay the points!
|03-22-16||Hornets v. Nets +6.5||Top||105-100||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +
Brooklyn is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hornets. Charlotte is in the ultimate letdown spot here, as they used every ounce of energy they had in last night's improbable win over the Spurs. The Hornets trailed 7-30 early in the 2nd quarter, but were able to rally for a 91-88 victory.
I just don't see Charlotte coming out with the kind of energy needed to turn this into a blowout. Not only are the Hornets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back set on the road, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. It's also important to keep in mind that Charlotte is not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Hornets are just 13-19 on the road, compared to 27-11 at home.
Brooklyn isn't a great team by any means, but I expect the Nets to come out with some energy at home after getting the last 2 days off. The Nets will also be getting back Brook Lopez after he sat out the last game.
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss by more than 10 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the points!
|03-21-16||Washington v. San Diego State -5||78-93||Win||100||12 h 24 m||Show|
4* NIT Late-Night ATS No Brainer on San Diego St -
The Pac-12 has been a major disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. Out of the 7 teams that got invited, only one team made the Sweet 16 (Oregon), with several losing in the 1st round. I see no reason to think that the Pac-12 is going to show any better in the NIT.
I definitely like the value here with the Aztecs laying a relatively small number at home against the Huskies. Washington had to rally from an early deficit to escape with a 107-102 win over Long Beach State at home in their NIT opener. Now they go on the road where they have really struggled this season (6-9).
Making matters worse is they are taking on a pissed off San Diego State team that is out to show the committee they made a mistake not including them in the Big Dance. The Aztecs cruised to an easy 79-55 win at home over IUPU-Ft Wayne in their NIT opener, improving to 14-4 on their home floor this season.
It's also worth noting that San Diego State more than proved themselves against the Pac-12 in non-conference play. They only lost by 5 on the road at Utah and crushed Cal by 14 on a neutral court.
San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win by more than 20 points and 24-14 ATS in their last 38 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Washington is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 45 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game and 14-20 ATS in their last 34 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points!
|03-21-16||Bucks v. Pistons -7.5||91-92||Loss||-105||9 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational No Doubt Blowout on Pistons -
This might seem like a big number for the Pistons to be laying against a division opponent, but Detroit should have no problem taking down the Bucks by at least 8 points tonight. Milwaukee is all but eliminated from playoff contention and are already starting to look at developing their younger players. Detroit on the other hand needs every win they can get, as they sit tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the east with Chicago.
The Bucks are also a horrible road team. They are just 9-26 away from home on the season, losing by an average of 7.4 ppg. The key here is that we are catching Milwaukee in a really bad spot, as they will be on no rest after hosting the Jazz yesterday.
Detroit is in the midst of a 9-game homestand. After losing a hard fought game to Atlanta, they have won 2 straight in impressive fashion. With the Magic on deck, there's no reason for the Pistons not to show up for this contest.
Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 games, while the Pistons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after playing a game as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Lay the points!
|03-21-16||Spurs v. Hornets +6||Top||88-91||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hornets +
Charlotte is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. This is simply a bad spot for San Antonio off that huge win at home against the Warriors. The Spurs invested everything they had in beating Golden State and are almost certainly going to suffer a letdown on the road against a Hornets team that is quietly playing their best basketball of the season.
Charlotte comes in off a 93-101 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 9-point favorite, which is definitely helping the value here. However, that lackluster performance against Denver, likely had a lot to do with them looking ahead to this game. The Hornets are 15-4 over their last 19 games and haven't lost back-to-back games when playing at home all season.
This is also a big revenge game for Charlotte, as they got embarrassed by 20-points at San Antonio earlier this season. Hornets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Spurs are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the east. Take the points!
|03-20-16||Hawaii +7 v. Maryland||60-73||Loss||-106||10 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament ATS Annihilator on Hawaii +
The Terrapins got pushed to the limit in their opening round game against South Dakota State, while Hawaii made easy work of a Cal team that was playing their best basketball coming into the Tournament. I know the Golden Bears were without Wallace, but I don't know that he would have made that big of a difference.
Hawaii only lost by 3-points to Oklahoma in non-conference play, while also beating UNI by 16. One thing that I really like about the Rainbow Warriors, is they have been competitive in just about every game. Only 1 of their losses was by more than 8-points. You also have to factor in the Terrapins haven't been playing all that great down the stretch. Even with the win over the Jackrabbits, they are just 4-5 in their last 9.
Hawaii is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, including a perfect 8-0 mark this season. The Warriors are also 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 tournament games. Take the points!
|03-20-16||Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse -6.5||Top||50-75||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse -
Middle Tennessee played a near perfect game against Michigan State and as a result are coming into today's Round of 32 matchup against Syracuse way overvalued. It's also a lot harder for a team like the Blue Raiders to bounce back off a monumental win like they had against the Spartans, who many had winning the tournament.
One of the keys here is that the Orange are a difficult team to prepare in just 1 day. Syracuse's zone is not the same kind of zone that teams are use to facing. You might think that given how well Middle Tennessee shoots the 3-ball, the zone would be a good fit for them. However, opponents are shooting just 30.4% from behind the 3-point line against Syracuse this season. They also average 3 fewer attempts than what they normally put up.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Blue Raiders. Underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points who are 4 or more consecutive wins are just 20-52 (28%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament when seeded 13 through 16. Lay the points!
|03-20-16||Clippers -7.5 v. Pelicans||105-109||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers -
This might seem like a big number for the Clippers to be laying on the road playing on no rest in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but it's for good reason. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Anthony Davis and that gives them little to no chance of being competitive with the injury situation that they have.
Los Angeles lost yesterday 102-113 at Memphis and that is going to have the Clippers coming out extremely motivated for a win here. Keep in mind they followed up a 87-108 loss at San Antonio on Tuesday with a 122-106 win at Houston the next night. This also isn't a horrible back-to-back spot, as LA had two days off prior to playing the Grizzlies.
Pelicans are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game. Clippers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Lay the points!
|03-19-16||Warriors v. Spurs -3||79-87||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
4* Warriors/Spurs NBA Primetime Main Event on Spurs -
This is the game that everyone has been waiting for and I really like the value we are getting with the Spurs as a small home favorite. San Antonio is a perfect 34-0 at home this season and have won a ridiculous 32 straight regular season home games against the Warriors.
Not only is this a great line to get the Spurs at home, but this is a huge revenge spot for San Antonio. The Spurs got embarrassed by the Warriors in Golden State earlier this season, losing by a final of 90-120. To say this is a statement game for the Spurs is an understatement.
It's also worth noting San Antonio has a big edge here in the scheduling department. The Warriors had to play last night in Dallas and now are on the road for a second straight game without rest. This is also their 3rd game in the last 4 days. The Spurs on the other hand had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game int he last 6 days.
San Antonio is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and have won these games by an average of 13.7 ppg. Lay the points!
|03-19-16||Connecticut +8.5 v. Kansas||61-73||Loss||-115||12 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider on Connecticut +
The Huskies are showing great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Jayhawks. Connecticut didn't play well at all in the 1st half against Colorado, but returned to the form that won them the AAC Tournament in the 2nd half. The Huskies are playing with all kinds of momentum and aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Jayhawks.
Kansas is simply overvalued due to the fact that they are the #1 overall seed in the tournament and fresh off a 26-points win over Austin Peay, where they put up a ridiculous 107 points. Connecticut isn't going to let the Jayhawks run all over them. They are going to limit their easy looks in transition and really slow the game down. It's not out of the question that the Huskies win this game outright.
Connecticut is 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when listed as a underdog on a neutral court and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Kansas on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 12 or less turnovers after 15+ games. Take the points!
|03-19-16||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -6.5||Top||61-78||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Iowa State -
I really like the value here with the Cyclones as a decently priced favorite against the Trojans. Arkansas-Little Rock is fortunate just to be playing today, as they trailed by 13-points with less than 4 minutes to play against Purdue on Thursday. The Trojans rallied from that deficit to force overtime, where they won in double-overtime 85-83.
The key thing to keep in mind here is that they are playing in the thin-air of Denver. That's going to make bouncing back on just 1-day of rest very difficult. Another advantage here for Iowa State is they got the chance to watch the Trojans after their easy 13-point win over Iona. The Cyclones play at a fast pace and that's going to make it even harder on Little Rock to keep up on the scoreboard.
The Trojans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after a game where both teams scored 80+ points and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after a combined score of 165 or more. Iowa State on the other hand is an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 tournament games. Lay the points!
|03-18-16||Green Bay v. Texas A&M -13||65-92||Win||100||33 h 54 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -
There's been plenty of beef about how Texas A&M got a #3 seed and Kentucky got a #4 seed. That's not the Aggies fault and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder against an inferior Green Bay team.
It's important to note that I think Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country and were deserving of a better seeding. With that said, Texas A&M could have just as easily beat them in the SEC Tournament title game (lost in OT). That loss to the Wildcats is the Aggies only defeat in their last 9 games. Keep in mind this team was ranked in the Top 5 at one point this season.
The Phoenix winning the Horizon Tournament was a HUGE surprise. They went just 11-7 in league play and almost everyone thought that it was going to be either Valparaiso, Oakland or Wright State. Simply put, this team is going to be outclassed when they take the floor and their lack of defense is going to allow Texas A&M to turn this into a blowout.
Keep in mind this team lost to Georgia Tech by 30 in non-conference play and allowed 107 points in the process. Lay the points!
|03-18-16||Cavs v. Magic +9||109-103||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +
Orlando is showing great value here as a near double-digit home dog against the Cavaliers. The Magic have covered two straight and 4 of their last 6 overall. This is a game they will definitely be motivated to play their best. Getting the best team in the east on their home floor.
The Cavaliers are simply overvalued due to having won 7 of their last 9 and going up against a bad team. However, this isn't a great spot for Cleveland. They are coming off a hard fought win over the Mavericks at home and have to turn around and play Miami tomorrow. The Heat are a team that we know LeBron James wants to be at his best against, so don't expect a max effort tonight from the King.
Orlando is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Cleveland is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record.
We also find a strong system in play on Orlando. Underdogs who have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games against an opponent that is off a win by 6 points or less are 41-17 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take the points!
|03-18-16||Hawaii v. California -6.5||77-66||Loss||-100||28 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament No Doubt ATS Blowout on Cal -
A lot of the attention in the Pac-12 is going to Oregon and Utah, but I think the most dangerous team in the field from that conference is the Golden Bears. Cal has two of the best freshmen in the country that no one talks about in Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb. Once these two got a better understanding of what head coach Cuonzoc Martin wanted, this team took off down the stretch.
The Golden Bears won 9 of their last 11 games with their two losses coming at Arizona by just 3-points (should have won that game) and to Utah by 4 in the Pac-12 Tournament. Keep in mind they did beat Utah at home by 13 and Oregon by 20. They also lost by just 1-point on the road against Virginia back in non-conference play and very easily could have won that game.
The scary thing about Cal is not only do they have a balanced offensive attack (5 players averaging in double-figures), they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. One thing Cal does extremely well is not let teams get quality looks from behind the 3-point line. They also aren't easy to score on inside. Hawaii is a team that loves to shoot the 3-ball, which makes this a perfect matchup for the Bears.
Cal is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and once again I feel like they are being way undervalued. They also have gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points!
|03-18-16||Syracuse +1.5 v. Dayton||Top||70-51||Win||100||26 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse -
You could make a strong case that the Orange don't belong in the Tournament, but that's besides the point now. The key here is that this is a great matchup for Syracuse, plus I'm not all that convinced that the A-10 was as good as people think.
Dayton had some quality non-conference wins, but they also lost by 29-points to Xavier and fell at home to Chattanooga. The Flyers are a team that likes to use a lot of movement on offense to create easy looks. That isn't going to be all that effective against Syracuse's zone. In fact, Dayton really struggled this season against teams who played exclusively zone defense.
On the other side of the ball, Dayton does an outstanding job of protecting the rim and not letting team get easy looks inside. That's great if you were playing a team that likes to pound the ball inside, but the Orange are a team that loves to shoot the 3-point shot. They have four different plays who each attempted over 100 3-point shots this season and all four hit at least 34%.
I'll put my trust in Boeheim to have Syracuse ready to play and wouldn't be shocked if the Orange won this one going away. Syracuse is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 neutral court games as an underdog and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 when listed as a dog of 6 or less on a neutral floor. Take the points!
|03-17-16||Providence -2 v. USC||Top||70-69||Loss||-104||25 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence -
Of all the first round games of the NCAA Tournament, this is without a doubt my favorite play. Providence is built for postseason success. They have an elite guard in Kris Dunn and a matchup nightmare in 6-9 forward Ben Bentil. USC on the other hand is a team that I didn't feel deserved to make the tournament.
Almost all of the Trojans success this season came at home, where they finished the year 16-2. USC won just 5 games on the road and none of those were against a team as talented as what they will face in the Friars. Making things even tougher on the Trojans is they got the unfortunate draw of having to play in Raleigh. Traveling clear across the country isn't going to help those road problems.
Another thing I look at is how a team closed out the year. USC went just 3-7 over their last 10 ames. That included a 11-point loss at home to Utah, 20-point loss at Stanford, 22-point loss at Cal and 10-point loss at home to Oregon.
I also give a big edge here to the Friars with head coach Ed Cooley and his ability to prepare for an opponent. He's going to have his team ready for what USC likes to do offensively and they aren't going to let the Trojans get out and get easy points in transition. All this adds up to what should be any easy win for Providence. Lay the points!
|03-17-16||Chattanooga +12 v. Indiana||74-99||Loss||-110||22 h 31 m||Show|
3* NCAA Tournament Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +
There's going to be those that don't understand why Indiana is 5-seed after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but I actually think the committee seeded them accordingly. Indiana played an easy non-conference schedule and had some ugly losses. They to Wake Forest and UNLV, plus got routed by Duke by 20.
They also played the easiest Big Ten schedule, which can't be overlooked. They simply didn't have to go through the same grind of schedule as the other teams. My belief that this team is overrated came to form when the Hoosiers lost to Michigan in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana's offensive is built around the 3-point shot, which is something that doesn't always travel well. Chattanooga did a decent job of defending the 3-pointer and have the players who can make life difficult for Yogi Ferrell.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Mocs pulled off the outright upset in this one. Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the NCAA Tournament. Chattanooga is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning percentage above 60% and 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take the points!
|03-17-16||Buffalo v. Miami (Fla) -14||72-79||Loss||-108||21 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAA Tournament No Doubt BLOWOUT on Miami -
The Hurricanes are a No. 3 seed, but could have easily been a No. 2 seed. Miami tied with Virginia for 2nd in the ACC at 13-5, just 1-game back of North Carolina. I look for the Hurricanes to have no problem here in what is a great matchup for them against Buffalo.
The Bulls got into the tournament by winning the MAC Tournament, but this isn't one of the teams I think you ride the momentum with. Buffalo went just 10-8 in the MAC during the regular season and had lost 5 of 8 before going on that run in the MAC Tournament. During their 3-game run in the MAC Tournament, Buffalo made a ridiculous 35 of 80 (44%) from behind the 3-point line.
The problem for the Bulls is the Hurricanes aren't going to let them get looks from the outside. They ranked 22nd in the country in 3-point shots allowed. Not only does Miami do a good job of taking away the 3-point shot, they don't foul and protect the rim.
With Buffalo struggling to get anything going offensively, this game should get out of hand quickly. The Bulls are not a good offensive team and that's saying something given they play in a small conference. They allowed 78.3 ppg on the road. Miami should score at will here and win by 20+ no problem.
Miami is 8-2 ATS in their 10 games this season against teams who average 77 or more points/game and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Lay the points!
|03-17-16||Connecticut -3 v. Colorado||74-67||Win||100||16 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAA Tournament Early Bird NO BRAINER on Connecticut -
The Huskies caught fire at the right time once again. With their tournament hopes firmly on the bubble, Connecticut took matters into their own hands and went out and won the American Athletic Tournament title. The most impressive thing about that feat is they went on to win two more games after a 4-overtime thriller against Cincinnati.
I look for the Huskies to carry over that momentum with an easy win here against a Colorado team that I don't think is anything special. Most of Colorado's success came at home, where the Buffaloes finished the season 16-1. Their few road (includes neutral sites) wins weren't all that impressive either. They beat Auburn, Colorado State, Penn State, Stanford and Washington State (twice).
This is also a bad matchup for the Buffaloes. Colorado is a team that likes to get out and score in transition. Their offensive production was way down against teams who didn't allow them easy baskets in transition. UConn excels at not allowing teams to score in transition On the flip side of this, the Buffaloes are really good at not allowing team open looks from the outside. The Huskies would much rather prefer to beat you inside.
Connecticut has gone an impressive 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games, including a 15-3 ATS mark in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games. Colorado on the other hand has failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 post-season tournament games. Lay the points!
|03-16-16||Pelicans v. Kings -3||123-108||Loss||-110||12 h 37 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Kings -
I believe the books have set a low number here trying to adjust for the Kings playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. While this would normally be a decent spot to go against Sacramento, I love the value here with them going up against the Pelicans.
New Orleans has been devastated by injuries and even when they were somewhat healthy they struggled on the road. The Pelicans are just 7-27 away from home on the season and this is far from an ideal spot. New Orleans will be concluding a 5-game road trip and will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days.
The Kings snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 106-98 win over the Lakers last night. I don't see them looking past this game, as they have lost each of the previous 3 meetings this season against the Pelicans. No team wants to get swept by an opponent, so expect a big effort here from Sacramento.
New Orleans is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Sacramento on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points!