|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-20-15||Suns -2.5 v. Nuggets||114-107||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational Oddsmakers Error on Suns -
Phoenix comes into this game off a disappointing performance at home against the Bulls in prime time game on ESPN Wednesday, losing 97-103 as a 3-point favorite. That sets the Suns up for a big bounce back effort on the road against the Nuggets, a team they just beat at home by 24-points (105-81).
Denver has played better of late, but I'm confident when I say this is one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 6-6 right now, but there 6 wins have come against the Rockets (twice), Lakers, Bucks, Blazers and Pelicans. They have lost at home by 17 to the Timberwolves and 12 to the Jazz. They are giving up 103.1 ppg with opposing teams averaging a ridiculous 56.5 points in the 1st half. Phoenix on the other hand is allowing just 43.2 ppg in the 1st half. I look for the Suns to get out to an early lead and cruise to another easy win over Denver.
The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points, while the Suns are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Take Phoenix!
|11-20-15||Rockets v. Grizzlies -4.5||Top||84-96||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on Grizzlies -
The Grizzlies are showing excellent value here against the Rockets at home. Houston was able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a 108-103 home win over the Trail Blazers in their first game after the firing of head coach Kevin McHale. What's getting overlooked is the fact that the Rockets trailed by as many as 17 in the 3rd quarter and needed a 30-foot 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime.
I just don't think the firing of McHale is going to magically fix the problems that led to the Rockets poor start. I certainly don't like their chances of going on the road and beating a Memphis team that has turned the corner and are playing up to their potential after a slow start. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and are averaging an impressive 112.3 ppg during this stretch. Their improved play all started when they made the trade to land Mario Chalmers from Miami.
When Memphis is playing well, they are extremely difficult to beat at home, which is a big reason why I like them so much tonight. The Grizzlies should be able to score at will against a Rockets defense that is allowing 108.1 ppg. Memphis did an excellent job keeping Harden in check last year, limiting him to just 19.3 ppg in their 4 meetings. Harden had 45 against the Blazers and they barely won, so the Grizzlies should have no problem covering if they continue to limit him like they did a year ago.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more points/game against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their last game are just 28-63 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|11-20-15||South Dakota v. Kansas State -13||72-93||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Kansas State -
The Wildcats shouldn't have any problem taking care of business at home against South Dakota. Kansas State is flying under the radar after last year's 15-17 campaign and that was evident by the fact that they were just a 4.5-point favorite at home against Columbia last time out. The Wildcats went on to win that game 81-71. Keep in mind that's a talented Columbia team that basically returns 5 starters with the players they got back from last year's injury plagued season.
As for South Dakota, the Coyotes are a middle-of-the-pack at best team in the Summit League. They are coming off their first winning season in 4 years (17-16), but lost 3 starters , including two of their top scorers in Tyler Larson and Brandon Bos.
The big questions for the Wildcats coming into this season was whether or not senior Justin Edwards and junior Wesley Iwundu could make the kind of improvements in the offseason to get K-State back on track. So far they look to have answered the call. Iwundu is averaging 19.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 4 apg, while Edwards is right behind at 18.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 4.5 apg.
South Dakota simply doesn't have the talent or experience to go on the road and compete with a power 5 team like Kansas State. The Coyotes have already lost to Wright State (69-77) and Northern Illinois (65-72) and barely held on to beat Cal State Northridge 76-72. Take Kansas State!
|11-20-15||Hofstra v. Florida State -7||82-77||Loss||-105||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Afternoon ATS Annihilator on Florida State -
While Hofstra is the favorite to win the Colonial, I don't think the Pride are going to be able to hang with a Florida State team that I believe is flying under the radar right now. The Seminoles are coming off a disappointing 17-16 season, where they went just 8-10 in the ACC, but they should be greatly improved with their top 6 scores (all 5 starters) back, as well as 8 players in total with starting experience.
Not only does Florida State return a wealth of talent an experience, they landed a Top 10 ranked recruiting class, led by 6'7 combo guard/forward Dwayne Bacon and 6'5 guard Malik Beasley. It hasn't taken long for these two to make their presence felt. Bacon is averaging a team-best 25.0 ppg to with 8.5 rpg. Beasley is right behind him at 21.0 ppg. Sophomore point guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes (NBA potential) is enjoying the new additions, as he's averaging a near double-double with 12.0 ppg and 8.0 apg.
Hofstra likes to get out an push the tempo, as they have scored 96 points in each of their first two games, but that's not going to work against a solid defensive team like Florida State. The Pride also aren't very good defensively (allowed Canisius to score 85 or 48% shooting). Seminoles will score at will and make more than enough stops to win here by double-digits. Take Florida State!
|11-19-15||Iowa -2 v. Marquette||Top||89-61||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
5* Iowa/Marquette NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa -
The Hawkeyes will go on the road to take on a Marquette team that hasn't looked impressive at all in their first two games. The Golden Eagles lost their opener at home against Belmont 80-83 as a 6-point favorite and then barely squeaked by IUPUI 75-71 as a 13.5-point favorite. The same IUPUI team that just lost by 23-points last night at NC State (Wolfpack lost at home earlier this year to William & Mary).
Simply put this is not a good Marquette team. They went just 13-19 last year and lost a lot of key pieces from that team. Only 5 scholarship players returned and just 3 who averaged more than 20 minutes a game. Iowa isn't a great team by any means, but are an experienced bunch with 4 starters back from last year. The Hawkeyes have made easy work of their first two opponents, winning by 17 over Gardner Webb and 35 against Coppin State. Iowa played extremely well on the road last year and will not be intimated playing away from home against an inexperienced Golden Eagles team.
Marquette is 1-8 over the last 3 seasons when listed as a home dog and are 0-7 ATS during this stretch as a home dog of 6 points or less and 0-7 ATS at home in the month of November. Take Iowa!
|11-19-15||Kings v. Heat -8.5||109-116||Loss||-100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* Kings/Heat NBA Heavy Hitter on Heat -
I think this is a great spot to back Miami at home against the Kings. Sacramento has played better of late, but fell to 0-3 on the road with last night's 6-point loss at Atlanta. The Kings are a very disciplined team and lack composure, I think they struggle to bounce on no rest against a well-rested and motivated Miami squad. Keep in mind Sacramento is a long way from home, making the back-to-back that much more difficult.
The Heat lost their last game at home 91-103 as a 8.5-point favorite against the Timberwolves. It was only their second loss at home this season. The first was a 92-98 defeat to the Hawks. In their next home game following the defeat to Atlanta, they destroyed a really good Toronto team 96-76.
Miami comes into this game having played just once in the last 6 days and have the 76ers on deck Saturday, so there's no reason for them not to give their best effort off a loss. Keep in mind they haven't lost consecutive games this season and 5 of their 6 wins have come by double-digits.
Another important note is that the Kings may be without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins, who could end up being suspended for an elbow thrown against Al Hoford last night. Without Cousins this came could get real ugly in a hurry, but even if he plays I still see Miami winning by double-digits.
Sacramento is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after giving up 100 or more points in 3 straight games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by 6 points or less. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Pacific and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record. Take Miami!
|11-18-15||Bulls v. Suns -2.5||Top||103-97||Loss||-105||13 h 36 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Suns ESPN ATS No Brainer on Suns -
The Suns are showing some great value here as a small home favorite in Wednesday's nationally televised matchup against the Bulls on ESPN. While both teams come in riding 3-game winning streaks, Phoenix has been the more impressive team during this stretch. Chicago barely escaped with home wins over the Hornets (102-97) and Pacers (96-95), while the Suns have won 3 straight at home by at least 14 points.
The key here is that Chicago is a team that is a heavily backed team by the public and it's why we aren't seeing Phoenix as a bigger home favorite in this matchup. I believe this will be a tough spot for the Bulls, who will be making their first trip out west and doing so without starting point guard Derrick Rose. At the same time, the Bulls have a much bigger game on deck against the undefeated Warriors on Friday.
Chicago has gone 2-2 on the road, but their 2 wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Their 2 road losses were a 94-98 defeat at Detroit and 105-130 loss at Charlotte.
Suns are 5-2 ATS at home this season, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 10 or more points and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game. Take Phoenix!
|11-18-15||Wolves v. Magic -3||101-104||Push||0||9 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational Oddsmakers Error on Magic -
With the Timberwolves coming off a 103-91 win at Miami last night as a 8.5-point underdog to improve to 5-1 on the road this season, we are seeing Minnesota way overvalued in a bad spot. The Timberwolves will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and are 0-2 this season when playing with no rest.
Orlando on the other hand comes into this game well rested, as they have had the last 3 days off. The Magic will be hungry for a win following a 9-point loss at Washington in their last game. Since opening the season 0-3, Orlando has gone 5-3 and have not dropped back-to-back games. The Magic could be getting back a key piece for this contest, as there looks to be a good chance Victor Oladipo returns after missing the last 2.
Minnesota is just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 off a win by 10 or more points and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 against teams who are averaging 56 or more rebounds/game. Magic are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 against the Northwest, 4-1 ATS in last 5 at home, 4-1 ATS in last 5 off a loss and 5-1 ATS in last 6 off 3 or more days of rest. Take Orlando!
|11-18-15||Illinois v. Providence -7.5||59-60||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* Illinois/Providence NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Providence -
The Friars are worth a look at home tonight against the Fighting Illini. Providence got a good test in their opener against Harvard and won 76-64 as a 10-point favorite. They did so despite shooting just 39.7% from the field and allowing the Crimson to shoot 45.3%.
I look for the Friars to have a much stronger showing offensively here against an Illinois team that has really struggled defensively in their first two games. The Fighting Illini allowed North Florida to shoot 52.2% in a 81-93 home loss to open the season. They then gave up 74 points in a 6-point win at home against North Dakota State.
That's a bad sign for a team that will be playing their first road game of the season and facing arguably the best point guard in the country in Kris Dunn, who averaged 15.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 7.5 apg last year.
Keep in mind the Illini lost 4 key contributors from last year in Crosby (7.8 ppg) Egwu (6.5 ppg), Rice (16.5 ppg) and Starks (7.7 ppg). On top of that, Tracy Abrams was lost for the year in the summer and Jaylon Tate, Kendrick Nunn and Leron Black could all be out. Black is the only one with a chance to play, as he's questionable with a knee injury.
Illinois is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Take Providence!
|11-17-15||Cavs v. Pistons OVER 193||Top||99-104||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Pistons NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER
I look for the Cavaliers and Pistons to have no problem eclipsing the total set for this one. Cleveland comes in averaging 102.8 ppg and are catching the Pistons in a tough spot. Detroit has had just 1-day off after concluding a lengthy 6-game west coast road trip.
The Cavaliers come in on 2 full days of rest and will be able to push the tempo and take advantage of the tired legs of the Pistons. It's also important to note we catch Cleveland coming off a loss, so we know they will be highly motivated to bounce back with a win.
The key here is I loo for Detroit to keep pace offensively at home. Cleveland has allowed at least 97 points in 4 of their last 5 and Detroit is averaging a respectable 96.6 ppg. It's also worth noting that each of the final 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 195 or more.
OVER is 19-8 in the Pistons last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 26-12 in their last 38 as a home dog and 11-2 in their last 13 home games off a road loss by 10 or more points. OVER is 39-17-1 in Cleveland's las 57 when playing with 2 days of rest and 4-1 in last 5 off a game where they failed to cover. Take the OVER!
|11-17-15||Bucks +4.5 v. Wizards||86-115||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +
I like the value we are getting here with Milwaukee as a road dog against the Wizards. There's a good chance Washington won't have leading scorer Bradley Beal (22.7 ppg), as he's nursing a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last 2 games (didn't practice Monday). Even if he plays, I still like Milwaukee, as I don't see him being at full strength.
The Wizards were able to overcome the loss of Beal in 108-99 win at home against Orlando on Saturday, but that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Washington only led by 3 going into the 4th quarter and trailed with less than 5 minutes to go. The Magic were also without one of their best players in Oladipo. Prior to that win, Washington had lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 overall.
The Bucks will come into this riding a huge wave of momentum after defeating the Cavaliers 108-105 at home on Saturday. It was Milwaukee's 5th win in their last 7 games overall. On top of that, the Bucks will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Wizards back on 10/30.
The Bucks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games revenging a loss and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Wizards on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a cover. Take Milwaukee!
|11-17-15||Oklahoma -4 v. Memphis||84-78||Win||100||6 h 13 m||Show|
4* Oklahoma/Memphis NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Oklahoma -
These two teams may appear to be evenly matched with Memphis having the home court edge, but I don't think that's the case at all. The Sooners are one of the elite teams in the country and should be able to over-power a Memphis program that looks to be on the decline.
Oklahoma returns 4 starters, including the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year in Buddy Hield, who turned the opportunity to go to the NBA. He's going to be the best player on the floor in this game and that makes the Sooners an easy pick here for me with this relatively small spread.
Memphis has the looks of a team headed to the NIT at the end of the year. The Tigers went just 18-14 last year and the recruiting just isn't the same as it once was. While the Sooners get back their best player, Memphis lost leading scorer Austin Nichols and don't have anyone returning who averaged double-figures a year ago.
Memphis doesn't rebound well, which is evident by the 21 offensive rebounds they gave up in their opener against Southern Miss. They aren't going to be able to score as easily in transition against the Sooners and Oklahoma won't give them 19 turnovers.
Another thing I like here is the Sooners will be highly motivated in this game, as they are 0-6 in their 6 previous meetings with Memphis. It's also worth noting the Tigers are 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost these games by an average score of 58.7 to 71.9. Take Oklahoma!
|11-16-15||Pacers +6 v. Bulls||Top||95-96||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers +
The Pacers are showing some excellent value here as a 6-point road dog against division rival Chicago. Indiana has really come on strong since their 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. They come into this one riding a 3-game winning streak and should have no problem keeping it close against the Bulls.
Chicago is 6-3 and have won 2 straight, but they aren't dominating teams. Their only 2 wins by more than 6-points have come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Nets and 76ers. Indiana's only loss during their recent surge is a 4-point defeat at Cleveland. Adding to this is the fact that the Bulls are 1-4 ATS at home, while the Pacers are 3-1 ATS on the road.
Indiana is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games in the month of November, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days rest. These trends add up to form a dynamite 27-1 system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!
|11-16-15||Virginia -5.5 v. George Washington||68-73||Loss||-108||8 h 38 m||Show|
4* Virginia/G Washington ESPN2 ATS Annihilator on Virginia -
The Cavaliers don't get the type of respect they deserve based on their style of play, but head coach Tony Bennett once again has one of the top teams in the country. Virginia opened up their season with a dominating 86-48 win at home against Morgan State. They did so with top returning scorer, Malcolm Brogdown scoring just 5 points.
While the Cavaliers lost Justin Anderson and Darion Atkins from last year's squad, they are a deep team and have added in a couple of physical big guys in freshman Jarred Reuter and Jack Salt (red-shirt last year). They also added transfer Darius Thompson from Tennessee and he started the opener and scored 12 points with 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals.
George Washington is a middle of the pack team in the A-10 and are simply out-classed here by the Cavaliers. The Colonials only beat Lafayette by 9 at home in their opener. All but 2 of their 27 made field goals came inside the 3-point line. George Washington isn't going to get those easy looks inside against a stout Virginia defense.
These two teams played last year and Virginia won 59-42 at home, as they held the Colonials to just 32.7% shooting from the field. The Cavaliers are 28-13 ATS in their last 51 road games with a total set at 129.5 or less and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. George Washington is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a winning record and 3-13 ATS in their last 26 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Virginia!
|11-15-15||Cal Poly v. UCLA -7||83-88||Loss||-105||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on UCLA -
After getting upset at home in overtime by Monmouth (81-84) in their opener, I look for the Bruins to come out and lay a beating on Cal Poly tonight. UCLA beat themselves more than anything against Monmouth. The Bruins had a 60-37 edge on the boards, but were careless with the basketball (23 turnovers) and shot just 37.7% from the field.
Only reason we aren't seeing a bigger spread here is Cal Poly comes in off a strong showing at UNLV on Friday, losing 72-74 as a 6.5-point underdog. I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of UCLA in this spot. As long as the Bruins don't go ice cold from the field again, they should have no problem winning here by double-digits.
Cal Poly hasn't exactly fared well after a close loss. In fact, they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a loss by 3 points or less. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Big West Conference. Take UCLA!
|11-15-15||Pistons v. Lakers UNDER 200||85-97||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pistons/Lakers UNDER
I'm not expecting much fireworks offensively tonight with the Pistons and Lakers. Detroit has scored 96 or less in each of their last 3 games, while LA has scored 99 or less in 4 straight. With the Pistons having lost 3 straight and the Lakers on a 4-game slide, both should bring some intensity not the defensive end to snap their respective losing streaks.
Key here is that neither of these teams will be looking to push the tempo. Detroit is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 6th and final game of a lengthy 6-game west coast trip. The Lakers had yesterday off, but are returning home from a 5-game road trip. This will be LA's 4th game in 6 nights.
These two teams also have a history of not lighting up the scoreboard when they face off against each other. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. We also see that the UNDER is 10-4 in Pistons last 14 against the Western Conference and 11-4 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is 8-1-1 in Lakers last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in their last 4 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER!
|11-14-15||Magic v. Wizards -5.5||99-108||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Doubt Rout on Wizards -
This is a perfect spot to back the Wizards at home. With Washington having had the last 3 days off to stir over their recent 3-game losing streak, we know we are going to get the best the Wizards have to offer on their home floor tonight.
At the same time, we catch the Magic in a great spot to fade. Orlando was able to overcome the absence of Victor Oladipo with a 102-93 win at home against the Jazz last night. The thing to keep in mind is the Magic caught Utah in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. Now it's Orlando playing on the road with no rest. On top of the back-to-back here for the Magic, this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th in the last 9. With a 3-day break of their own following this game, I don't see this team showing up in Washington tonight looking for a win.
Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing with 3 or more days of rest, while the Magic are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their 5 starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. We also find a strong system backing Washington based on the 125 points they allowed to OKC in their last game. Favorites who are scoring 102+ ppg against an opponent that averages 98-102 ppg, after allowing 120 or more in their previous game, are 54-24 (69%) ATS since 1996. Take Washington!
|11-14-15||VMI +13 v. Penn State||50-62||Win||100||4 h 36 m||Show|
3* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on VMI +
This is more of a fade of Penn State than it is a play on VMI. The Nittany Lions went just 18-16 overall and 4-14 in the Big Ten last year. Things figure to get worse this season, as Penn State loses their leading scorer and All-Big 10 guard D.J. Newbill, who averaged 20.7 ppg.
The Nittany Lions as a team only averaged 66.9 ppg. They also lose key contributors in John Johnson (7.4 ppg), Geno Thorpe (8.7 ppg) and Ross Travis (5.5 ppg). Combined that's well over half (42.3 ppg) of their scoring gone from last year. Penn State doesn't have anyone close to Newbill's talent and scoring is going to be tough for this team.
VMI went just 11-19 last year, but are just 2 years removed from a 22-win season. Things just never went as planned last year. This is a team that likes to play fast. The Keydets averaged 81 ppg and should continue to be a force offensively this year. VMI gets back their leading scorer in QJ Peterson (19.6 ppg), as well as Tim Marshall (11.7 ppg) and Julian Eleby (11.1 ppg). The Keydets not only have the offensive fire-power to keep it close, but could pull off the upset. Take VMI!
|11-13-15||Western Illinois v. Wisconsin -26.5||69-67||Loss||-105||11 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Opening Night ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin -
This may seem like a lot of points for the Badgers to be laying after losing two NBA draft picks in Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, as well as 3 other key pieces from last year's team that lost to Duke in the championship game, but I think we are going to see Wisconsin win here in a blowout.
The Badgers get back two really good players in junior point guard Bronson Koening and junior forward Nigel Hayes. They also add in red-shirt freshman Ethan Happ, who got a lot of praise for his work on scout team last year (sat out because he knew playing time would be limited). Wisconsin also runs more of a system offensively that has proven they can plug in and produce.
The other factor here that I like is head coach Bo Ryan has said this will be his last season. I think there's going to be some extra energy in the building for Ryan's last home opener. Most importantly, Western Illinois is a really bad team. The Leathernecks went just 8-20 last year and are the consensus pick to finish last in the Summit League. Take Wisconsin!
|11-13-15||Belmont +5 v. Marquette||83-80||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +
Marquette landed a big time recruiting class that has built up some excitement around this years team, but you have to keep in mind this is a team that went just 4-14 in the Big East last year and lost their leading scorer in Matt Carlino, as well as 3 other key contributors. The future is bright, but I believe it's going to take some time for these young kids to make a serious impact.
Belmont on the other hand is a team that really came on strong last year, which included a win over highly-regarded Murray State in the championship game of the Ohio Valley Tournament. The Bruins would lose their first game as a 15-seed to Virginia, but they played the Cavaliers tough, losing by just 12 points (only trailed by 2 with just over 4 minutes to play). Belmont has 4 starters back, including their top 3 scorers.
Experience is huge early in the year and I'll gladly take the 5-points here with the spread, but I think there's a good chance the Bruins win this game outright. Take Belmont!
|11-13-15||Hornets v. Bulls -6.5||Top||97-102||Loss||-107||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -
I'm expecting a dominating performance at home from the Bulls tonight against the Hornets. Chicago most lopsided loss of the season came at Charlotte last week in a 105-130 defeat. That loss didn't sit well with the Bulls, as they allowed the Hornets to shoot 51.6% from the field, easily the worst mark they have given up in 2015. Last season the Bulls followed up a 91-101 loss at Charlotte with a 98-86 home win 10 days later, which is what I'm expecting here.
Not only will Chicago be out for revenge, but they are going to be motivated off an ugly loss at home to the Timberwolves in their last home game. Their only home defeat of the season. The key here is the Bulls will have the fresher legs, as they come into this game off a 3-day break. Charlotte on the other hand will be playing their 3rd in 4 days and 4th road game in their last 5 overall.
Bulls are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 when revenge a road loss of 10 or more points and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Chicago!
|11-13-15||Hawks v. Celtics OVER 205||93-106||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hawks/Celtics OVER
I'm expecting a frantic pace in tonight's game against the Hawks and Celtics. Boston comes in averaging 101.1 ppg on 87 shots per game, while Atlanta is scoring 104.4 ppg on 84 shots. The Hawks have scored at least 101 points in each of their last 5 games and the Celtics are allowing 100.6 ppg at home.
OVER is 10-1 in the Hawks last 11 after playing 3 straight games at home and the average combined score in these games has been 209.3. OVER is also 15-5 in the Hawks last 20 road games against teams who are shooting 43% or worse from the field and 13-2 in their last 15 road games against teams that average 53 or more rebounds/game.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 46-12 (79%) over the last 5 seasons in games with two up-tempo teams that average 82 or more shots/game, who both also struggle to rebound the ball (-3 to -5.5 rebounds/game). Take the OVER!
|11-12-15||Jazz +5 v. Heat||91-92||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
3* Jazz/Heat NBA ATS Main Event on Jazz +
I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated line here on the Heat, as I don't think there's a whole lot that separates these two teams. The numbers back it up. Miami is scoring 97.1 ppg and allowing 90.1 ppg. Utah is scoring 96.3 ppg and giving up just 89.7 ppg.
Utah has covered 4 of 5 on the road and I believe they are going to be the more motivated team here. The Jazz come in off a hard fought loss at Cleveland on Tuesday, while Miami has cruised in each of their last two games, defeating the Raptors by 20 and Lakers by 13. Utah hasn't lost consecutive games yet this season and wouldn't be surprised at all to see them win outright, as I actually think they are the better team.
Miami is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after covering 3 of their last 4. Utah is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games off a game where they allowed 105 or more points. Take Utah!
|11-11-15||Pistons v. Kings UNDER 203.5||Top||92-101||Win||100||13 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Kings UNDER
Each of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has finished UNDER the total and given the circumstances I believe that streak continues tonight. Detroit is one of the most improved teams in the league and will be motivated coming off a loss at Golden State last time out. However, I don't see the Pistons playing at a fast pace. Detroit is playing their 4th straight on the road in their West Coast trip and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall.
Betting the UNDER with the Kings might not seem like a wise move, given Sacramento is allowing 110.6 ppg and opposing teams are shooting 49.3% from the field. The key here is the Kings held a players only meeting on Tuesday, which I believe is going to result in max effort here defensively, as they try to put an end to a 6-game losing streak on their home floor.
One thing to keep in mind with Sacramento's poor defensive start, is 6 of their first 8 games have come against some strong offensive teams in the Clippers (twice), Suns, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs. Their 8 opponents as a whole combine to average 103.5 ppg. Detroit is only scoring 99.0 ppg and shooting just 42.7% from the field.
UNDER is 5-1 in the Kings last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 13-4 in the Pistons last 17 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog, 23-10 in their last 33 against the Western Conference and 10-4 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record.
We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 50-21 (70%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that has covered at least 4 of their last 6, playing their 4th road game in 7 days and a total set at 200 or more points. Take the UNDER!
|11-11-15||Pacers v. Celtics -2.5||102-91||Loss||-110||10 h 58 m||Show|
4* Pacers/Celtics NBA Heavy Hitter on Celtics -
Indiana has won 4 of 5 and covered all 5 over their last 5 games. I believe it has the Pacers overvalued on the road against a Celtics team that is playing with confidence after back-to-back wins. Boston won 99-83 last night at Milwaukee.
Only Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder logged more than 30 minutes, so I don't think playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back is going to hurt them here. Keep in mind the Pacers aren't in a great scheduling spot either, as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.
The big key here is we are getting a great line to back the Celtics at home and we know they are going to be motivated for this game. Boston lost a heartbreaker at Indiana 98-100 last Wednesday and will be out for revenge with the defeat fresh in their minds.
The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when coming into a game of 2 or more consecutive wins. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games after playing 5 straight games where their opponents shot 42% or worse from the field. Take Boston!
|11-10-15||Mavs v. Pelicans -1.5||105-120||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -
After a disappointing and surprising 0-6 start to the season, I believe this is the perfect situation for the Pelicans to get their first win of the season. New Orleans lost at Dallas 98-107 on Saturday, despite taking a 6-point lead into the half. The defense fell apart in the final two quarters, allowing the Mavericks to score 65 second half points.
That loss certainly hasn't set well with the Pelicans and I look for them to come out extremely motivated to get their revenge on the Mavericks at home. Dallas on the other hand isn't going to be as motivated against a team they just beat, especially playing on the road with a big home game on deck tomorrow against the Clippers, who they have some revenge against after losing at LA 88-104 earlier this season.
Mavericks are just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games when listed as an underdog, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 off a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when playing with 2 days rest. Pelicans are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning road record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a road loss. Take New Orleans!
|11-09-15||Wolves +9 v. Hawks||117-107||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Wolves +
The Hawks are coming into this contest overvalued. Atlanta has won 7 straight overall and covered the spread in each of their last 4 games. Keep in mind they were just a 7-point home favorite last week against the Nets, who are arguably the worst team in the league.
Minnesota has got off to a respectable 3-2 start and will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after a 102-93 overtime win at Chicago as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. The Timberwolves largest defeat is a 84-96 loss to Miami and they were competitive throughout that game.
While both teams come in off a day of rest, I think Minnesota is going to be the fresher of the two teams. The Timberwolves are playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, while Atlanta will be playing their 5th game in the last 7 days.
Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games. Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-3-1 in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Minnesota!
|11-08-15||Raptors v. Heat UNDER 190.5||76-96||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Heat UNDER
I'm expecting both teams to come out a bit sluggish on offense here and a big reason for that is the energy that I look for both teams to bring to the defensive end. Toronto will be motivated off a 87-92 loss at Orlando on Friday, which was their first loss of the season. Miami will also be looking to bounce back, as they fell 87-90 at Indiana on Friday.
Both of these teams have really been good on the defensive end this year. The Raptors are allowing just 95.0 ppg against teams that are averaging 101.5 ppg, while the Heat are giving up only 92.8 ppg against teams that are averaging 100.6. A big reason why the UNDER is 4-2 in Toronto's 6 games and 5-1 in Miami's 6 contests.
UNDER is 34-14 in the Heat's last 48 games against teams scoring 99 or more points/game and 9-1 in their last 10 versus teams that are outrebounding opponents by 3 or more boards per game. UNDER is also 10-2 in Miami's last 12 games played on Sunday. Take the UNDER!
|11-07-15||Grizzlies v. Jazz -1||79-89||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz -
I look for the Jazz to be the much more motivated team in this one. Utah has got off to a respectable 3-2 start given they have played 4 of their first 5 on the road, but they were embarrassed in their lone home game by Portland 92-108. That performance hasn't sat well with this team and I think they come out and take advantage of a Memphis team that isn't playing well on either side of the ball to start the season.
I also think the Grizzlies are going to have a hard time not looking ahead to Monday's showdown against the Clippers. LA's twitter account took a shot at Memphis for their 50-point loss to Golden State and it hasn't sat well with the players (story on ESPN about it). You also have to take into account this is the Grizzlies 4th straight road game in a span of just 6 day, which will make it difficult for them to match the energy of the Jazz. Utah is also a very difficult place to play, only adding to the value here with the Jazz at basically a pick'em at home.
Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Western Conference. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS last 6 at home and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 versus the Western Conference. The Jazz are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Memphis. Take Utah!
|11-07-15||Wizards +4 v. Hawks||99-114||Loss||-105||10 h 20 m||Show|
4* Wizards/Hawks NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Wizards +
There's a reason the Hawks are only a 4-point favorite in this one. You would expect it to be more given they have won 6 straight and covered each of their last 3, especially with Washington losing by 20 last night at Boston. However, the situation here greatly favors the Wizards and I really like the value we are getting with Washington.
While both teams are playing in the second games of a back-to-back set, this is a much tougher spot for the Hawks, who will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights and fresh off a fast paced game last night against the Pelicans where the two teams combined for 236 points. All 5 starters recorded at least 30 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw the Hawks rest some of those starters tonight.
The Wizards aren't going to care who takes the floor, they are going to be highly motivated to test themselves against the defending Southeast champs and out for revenge after they were eliminated by Atlanta in the playoffs last year. Bradley Beal was the only Washington starter to play more than 30 minutes (31) and I think a lot of that had to do with this team making sure they were ready to go tonight against the Hawks.
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are averaging 103+ points/game are 34-11 (76%) ATS since 1996 after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Washington!
|11-06-15||Wizards v. Celtics +1.5||Top||98-118||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Celtics +
With the Wizards sitting at 3-1 and the Celtics at 1-3, this may seem like an obvious spot to back Washington as a small road favorite. I don't think that's the case at all. The books are begging for money on the Wizards with this small spread, but the real value here is with Boston as a small home favorite.
The Celtics have proceeded to lose 3 straight since their blowout win at home against the 76ers in their opener. Two of those losses came at home against the Raptors and Spurs, who are two of the better teams in the league. The other was a heartbreaking 2-point loss at Indiana that could have went either way.
Washington is getting some love here after their 102-99 win at home against the Spurs. San Antonio is a team that everyone gets up for, so I actually think that sets them up for a letdown, especially with a huge division road game against the Hawks on deck tomorrow. The Wizards other two wins have come against the Magic and Bucks, which isn't saying much. What stands out is a 7-point home loss to the Knicks, who aren't any good.
Wizards are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 6 points or less and just 9-21 in their last 30 road games on Friday night. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, while Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 against a team with a losing home record.
We also find a strong system, as teams off an upset loss as a favorite (Celtics) against an opponent off an upset win as a home dog (Wizards) are 67-33 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Boston!
|11-06-15||Bucks +2 v. Knicks||99-92||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +
I think we are seeing some great value here with Bucks as a 2-point underdog against the Knicks on Friday. Milwaukee is going to be out for revenge from an ugly 97-122 home loss to New York in their season opener. The key thing to keep in mind about that result, is the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo was suspended for that game. He's averaged a team-high 21.3 ppg in the 4 games since. Milwaukee has also got back their two 1st round picks from last year since that game in Jabari Parker and Tyler Ennis.
Prior to losing to the Knicks in the opener, Milwaukee had won 4 straight in the series, which included two wins at New York. We have already seen the Knicks drop both home games this season and they are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games in the 1st half of the season over the last 2 years.
Bucks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Milwaukee!
|11-05-15||Heat -3.5 v. Wolves||96-84||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
4* Heat/Wolves NBA ATS No Brainer on Heat -
I think we are catching the Heat showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. Miami is in a prime bounce back spot after failing to show up at home in their last game against division rival Atlanta. While they ended up only losing by 6, they were down 15 early in the 4th quarter.
Miami comes in at 2-2 with both of their losses coming against the two teams who met in last years Eastern Conference Finals in the Cavaliers and Hawks. They were dominant in their other two games, beating Charlotte by 10 and the Rockets by 11. Minnesota is 2-1, but their two victories came against two of the worst teams in the league in the Lakers and Nuggets. Their only loss was against the Trail Blazers at home, who aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.
Minnesota is just 16-32 ATS in their last 48 home games off a home loss to a division opponent and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games overall. The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing home record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Take Miami!
|11-04-15||Clippers +8 v. Warriors||Top||108-112||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers +
We are seeing the Warriors overvalued here due to their 4-0 SU & ATS start, which includes a 50-point win over Memphis at home in their last contest. The thing to keep in mind is that none of the teams they have beat are playing well to start the season. The Pelicans, who they have played twice, are 0-4, Memphis is just 3-2 with a 30-point loss to Cleveland and the Rockets are 1-3.
The Clippers will be without a doubt the best team they have faced to this point. Los Angeles has also started 4-0, though they are just 2-2 ATS with both non-covers coming in their last 2 games. There's no question this a game the Clippers have circled on the schedule, as it's a big measuring stick to see where they stand against the former champs. I look for LA to come out and give the Warriors all they can handle in a game that I see being decided in the final minutes.
Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or fewer offensive rebounds. Take Los Angeles!
|11-04-15||Nets +8.5 v. Hawks||87-101||Loss||-105||11 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Nets +
This may seem like an obvious spot to back the Hawks at home. Atlanta has won 4 straight and are coming off an impressive 98-92 win at Miami as a 4-point underdog. The Nets on the other hand haven't won at 0-4 and are just 1-3 ATS with all 4 losses coming by at least 7 points.
The big key here is the situation, as Atlanta is playing in the second game of a back-to-back set. Hawks' head coach Mike Budenholzer was a former assistant with the Spurs and has incorporated Greg Popovich's strategy of resting players in this spot. Don't be surprised to see some of Atlanta's starters sit this game out or have their minutes restricted.
The Nets will be happy to take advantage of the Hawks in this spot, as I look for Brooklyn to come out and play extremely hard to get their first win of the season. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Nets, who were eliminated in the playoffs by the Hawks last season.
The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 33% or more from downtown. On the flip side of this, Atlanta is just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games against horrible teams that are losing by an average of 9+ points/game. These three trends combine to form a 39-9 (81%) system. Take Brooklyn!
|11-03-15||Magic v. Pelicans UNDER 206.5||103-94||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pelicans UNDER
This total has been set too high for this matchup. Both the Magic and Pelicans have started the season 0-3, which is going to have both teams coming out extremely motivated to get their first win of the season. I believe that will lead to max effort here defensively and that should keep this well under the mark given the two offenses that are taking the floor.
Orlando comes into this game averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's a bit misleading as the only time they scored more than 87 points in a game is their 136-139 double-overtime game against Oklahoma City. They only had 117 in regulation, so if you take out overtime, they are only averaging 97.0 ppg.
The Pelicans are averaging 103.0 ppg, but they too have really only had one strong offensive outburst, as they scored 95 and 94 in their first two games, before scoring 120 against the Warriors. New Orleans is only shooting 42.7% from the field and Orlando is even worse at 40.2% and also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams at 29.3%.
In the two meetings between these teams last year, they combined for 185 and 179 points with the highest total being 192.5. Given their current form and the injuries the Pelicans are dealing with, I look for these two to fly under the total set here.
UNDER is 21-9 in Orlando's last 30 road games with a total greater than 200 over the last 3 seasons, 22-8 in their last 30 road games following 3 or more consecutive losses and 23-7 in their last 30 road games against an opponent from the Western Conference. UNDER is also 8-2 in Pelicans last 10 following a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Take the UNDER!
|11-03-15||Hawks v. Heat -4||98-92||Loss||-101||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* Hawks/Heat NBA Vegas Insider on Heat -
While the Hawks come in having won 3 straight since their ugly 94-106 loss at home to the Pistons to open the season, they were fortunate to come away with wins each of their two games against the Hornets in their home-and-home set over the weekend. Atlanta won both games by a combined 5 points. Their only other win was at New York, which really isn't saying much.
I've been much more impressed with the Heat to start the season, whose only loss came on the road against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Miami defeated Charlotte 104-94 at home in their opener and the Rockets 109-89 at home in their most recent contest. I look for this team to continue their strong play at AmericanAirlines Arena.
This is a big game for the Heat, as they will be out to make a statement against division foe Atlanta, who ran away with the Southeast last year. Adding even more incentive is the fact that Miami has lost 6 straight in the series. The big key here is the Heat are a much better team than they were a year ago and the Hawks aren't nearly as strong as the one that took the league by surprise last season.
Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and even with the Hawks recent success, they are just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 trips to AmericanAirlines. Take Miami!
|11-02-15||Thunder -3.5 v. Rockets||105-110||Loss||-108||10 h 23 m||Show|
4* Thunder/Rockets NBA Heavy Hitter on Thunder -
Houston has no looked good in their first 3 games of the season. The Rockets are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS and I don't see them getting a win or over here against a motivated Thunder team that is out to make a statement early on.
Houston looked liked they were going to get that first win of the season yesterday at Miami, but were outscored 26-65 in the 2nd half to lose 89-109. Not only have all 3 losses come by at least 20 points, but they have yet to score more than 92 points in game. Harden is not playing anywhere close to his potential and defensively there's some major concerns with this team going forward.
Oklahoma City has won all 3 of their games, including an easy 117-93 victory yesterday at home against the Nuggets. After missing out on the playoffs last year, I don't see this team slowing down anytime soon. The Thunder are a mission to retake the Western Conference. They are simply the much better team in this one and even if it's close, they should be able to pull away and win here by at least 4.
Road favorites who have scored 105 points or more in 3 straight games are a profitable 60% (246-163) ATS going all the way back to 1996. Take Oklahoma City!
|10-31-15||Jazz v. Pacers -3||97-76||Loss||-105||9 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -
We find a great spot to not only fade the Jazz, but to back the Pacers. Utah avoided an 0-2 start with an easy 99-71 win at Philadelphia last night. However, the Jazz will now be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd straight road game to start the season, which has spanned just 4 days.
Indiana comes in rested after not playing yesterday and extremely motivated after starting the season 0-2. The Pacers have looked good offensively, but the defense has struggled against two of the better teams in the league in the Raptors and Grizzlies. Utah's offense isn't great and with the Jazz playing with some tired early season legs, I look for Indiana to take control early and cruise to an easy home win.
Utah is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Pacers are 13-2 SU in L15 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when listed as a home favorite off a loss as a home underdog. Take Indiana!
|10-30-15||Wolves v. Nuggets -4||Top||95-78||Loss||-108||12 h 14 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Nuggets -
Denver is a team that no one was talking about coming into the season, but are one to keep an eye on. The Nuggets were certainly impressive in their opener, going on the road and defeating the Rockets 105-85 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Timberwolves played inspired in wake of the unfortunate loss of Saunders and pulled out a 112-111 against the Lakers in LA. They needed a late rally to do so and let's no get carried away with a win over a Lakers team that is one of the worst in the west.
Last year the Nuggets went just 19-22 at home and it's been a point of emphasis this offseason to bring back the home court edge to the Pepsi Center. I look for the Nuggets to come out inspired in this one and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this turned into a blowout.
Minnesota could have a difficult time bouncing back after that emotional win to start the season, plus this is a very young team that isn't all that familiar with success and winning back-to-back games on the road is not something you see many young teams do. I also like the point guard matchup here, with Nuggets rookie Emmanuel Mudiay's defensive presence against Ricky Rubio.
Nuggets are 11-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a win by 10 or more points as an underdog and are 34-15 in their last 49 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 10-21 ATS over the last 2 years after allowing 110 or more points and 18-39 ATS in their last 57 off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Denver!
|10-29-15||Hawks -3.5 v. Knicks||112-101||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
3* Hawks/Knicks NBA ATS Main Event on Hawks -
These two teams are coming off drastically different openers. Atlanta lost at home 94-106 to Detroit as a 7-point favorite, while New York rolled the Bucks 122-97 as a 4.5-point road dog. I believe it's created some great value here with the Hawks in a prime bounce back spot against a Knicks team that will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set.
The Hawks simply had an off night from the field, especially from long distance. Atlanta shot just 8 of 27 (29.6%) from behind the 3-point line. The key is the defense played well, limiting the Pistons to just 38.5% shooting from the field. New York allowed the Bucks to shoot 50% (9-18) from downtown in their win last night and it's important to remember they were playing Milwaukee.
Atlanta was a very profitable team to back last year off an ugly performance. The Hawks were 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss by more than 10 points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Atlanta!
|10-28-15||Mavs v. Suns UNDER 203||111-95||Loss||-110||12 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Mavs/Suns UNDER
The books have set this total too high for this Western Conference matchup. Both the Mavericks and Suns underwent some major changes in the offseason. Dallas doesn't look to be as strong offensively, at least in the early going, while Phoenix looks to be a little stronger defensively.
Dallas parted ways with Tyson Chandler, Monta Ellis and Richard Jefferson, while bringing in Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, Zaza Pachouli, Samuel Dalembert and Javale McGee. There's definitely going to be some chemistry issues early on, as Williams and Matthews barely played in the preseason and neither is 100% healthy. The Mavericks are also without Chandler Parsons, as he recovers from knee surgery and will miss the playmaking ability of Ellis until these guys get healthy.
Phoenix added in Chandler from Dallas to help improve their interior defense and he will certainly do that. They still have a strong backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but the overall depth isn't as strong as it's been. With players not in game shape to start the season, I don't see the Suns exploding offensively here. The Mavericks also figure to slow the pace way down given what they have to work with this season and both teams should play hard defensively in the season opener.
To close out last season the Suns saw the UNDER go 19-7-1 in their final 27 home games and 19-7 in their last 26 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER!
|10-28-15||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 198||95-112||Loss||-105||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Celtics UNDER
The defensive intensity will be there for both teams in the season opener and there's a little bit more of an edge on that side of the ball in division games. You also have to factor in there's some rust to work off early in the season, as well as players needing to get into game shape.
Philadelphia could find it extremely difficult to score, as they are missing some key pieces because of injury. The 76ers will be without Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas and Kendall Marshall. There's a good chance this turns into a blowout and that's almost always a good sign for the under.
Boston won't be looking to run up the score with big home game against reigning Atlantic champ Toronto on Friday. The Celtics are also adjusting to a couple new pieces in David Lee and Amir Johnson. This is also a well-coached team that's going to get after it defensively.
Over the last 3 seasons the UNDER is 41-26 in 76ers games when they are listed as an underdog of 10 or more points. They also closed out last season going UNDER the total in 11 of their last 15 division games.
We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 112-60 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a marginal losing team from last season that won 40%-49% of their games (Celtics) playing a team who had a losing record. Take the UNDER!
|10-27-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -3||95-97||Loss||-105||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* Cavs/Bulls NBA Opening Night ATS Annihilator on Bulls -
The Bulls are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Cavaliers. Chicago is going to be extremely motivated to start out strong under new head coach Fred Hoiberg and will also be out for some serious revenge after getting eliminated in the playoffs by Cleveland last year.
While the Bulls will be all business, LeBron James and the Cavaliers will simply be going through the motions early in the season, a trend that has followed James from Miami to Cleveland. You also have to keep in mind the Cavs aren't at 100%. James is playing but nursing a bad back, while Kyrie Iriving and Iman Shumpert are both out indefinitely. Cleveland is also working in some new pieces offensively and getting use to playing with Love again.
Chicago essentially has the same roster as last year and the only injury for them is Mike Dunleavy. I really have high expectations for the Bulls under Hoiberg. The same defensive principles will remain that these players learned under Thibedeau, while Hoiberg should work wonders with an offense that suffered numerous scoring droughts. He's going to space the floor a lot more and that's going to allow Rose and Butler to take advantage of their ability to drive to the basket.
I strongly believe the Bulls want this game more and are the stronger and deeper team coming into the season. Take Chicago!
|06-16-15||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5||Top||105-97||Loss||-108||11 h 33 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game 6 No Brainer on Cavs +
It's do or die for the Cavaliers in Game 6 at home and I expect James and company to deliver. Playing at home is exactly what Cleveland's players need, as they will be able to feed off the energy of the home crowd.
As good as Golden State has looked in their last two games, it's a whole different beast closing out a series, especially on the road for the NBA title. I look for the pressure to get to the Warriors. Cleveland is also the more desperate team and desperation has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason.
Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102+ PPG) after 42+ games are a mere 10-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Cavs. Take Cleveland!
|06-14-15||Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||91-104||Loss||-107||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavaliers +
I anticipated that the Cavaliers were in trouble in Game 4. Not only did Golden State seem to figure out something offensively with David Lee getting more minutes, but Cleveland had used up so much energy in Games 2 & 3 that they were due for a letdown.
I believe the 2 days off between Game 4 and Game 5 are huge for the Cavaliers. Look for James to return to the form that had him flirting with 40 points and a triple-double in the first 3 and for Cleveland to keep this one well within striking distance to cover. I also don't think it's out of question that the Cavaliers win this outright.
The Cavaliers are 33-19 in their last 52 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points and 15-2 in their last 17 after playing 4 straight games as an underdog. Take Cleveland!
|06-11-15||Golden State Warriors -2.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||103-82||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Warriors -
Golden State didn't make the adjustments that I expected going into Game 3 and it was more of the same thing that we saw in Games 1 and 2. However, I believe they found something in that contest with David Lee. His ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll really gave the Warriors offense a boost and we started to see Curry look like the MVP down the stretch.
The Warriors just haven't looked themselves and I think the desperation that comes with being down 2-1 on the road is going to light a fire under this team. It's about time the role players stepped up and contributed.
You also have to take into consideration that LeBron is due to regress some from the ridiculous numbers he's put up in the first three games of the series. You also have to keep in mind that both Shumpert and Dellavedova were banged up in Game 3 and the Cav's have no depth. I just see this being a bit of a letdown for Cleveland. Take Golden State to tie it up at 2-2!
|06-09-15||Golden State Warriors -1.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||91-96||Loss||-108||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors -
LeBron James was special in Game 2 with 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists, while Golden State's Stephen Curry had one of his worst games in recent memory (5 of 23 for 19 points). You would expect Cleveland to have won by double-digits given this stat line, but instead they nearly lost outright.
James is going to continue to get his, but I just don't see the Cavaliers being able to keep up their defensive intensity. They just don't have a deep enough bench and I believe the 1-day off between Game 2 and Game 3 is going to be the difference here. Curry will be much better tonight and chances are James won't replicate his triple-double stat line.
All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 51-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State!
|06-07-15||Cleveland Cavaliers +8 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||95-93||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Cavs +
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Cavaliers now an 8-point dog in Game 2. I know Cleveland lost a key player in Irving, but he was already playing at less than 100% and was a liability defensively. As long as James is on the floor, the Cavs have a shot at winning. While I don't think they get a victory here, I am expecting this to be a close game.
Over James' career he's lost Game 1 of a series 8 times and his team has rebounded on all 8 of those occasions to win Game 2 (7-1 ATS). That trend alone makes this an obvious play on Cleveland given we are almost getting double-digits here.
It's also worth noting that home favorites who are leading in a playoff series that won 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 14-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!
|06-04-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5||Top||100-108||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Finals G1 Vegas Insider on Warriors -
The Warriors are showing decent value here as a mere 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the finals. Keep in mind that Golden State was no less than a 9.5-point favorite in any of their previous home games in the playoffs. Not to mention the Warriors only lost 3 times at home all season.
Cleveland may have the best player in the game in LeBron James, but the Warriors are the better team. Golden State's depth is going to pose a big problem for the Cavaliers, who are without Love and Irving playing at less than 100%.
It also comes down to matchups. Warriors have the players defensively that can guard James and lower his efficiency, similar to what the Bulls did. Cleveland on the other hand has no answer defensively for Curry or Thompson. Let's not forget that James has never won a Game 1 road contest in his career (0-7). Take Golden State!
|05-27-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10.5||Top||90-104||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Warriors -
|05-26-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5||Top||88-118||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Cavs NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Cavs -
|05-25-15||Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets OVER 213||Top||115-128||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Over 213
|05-24-15||Atlanta Hawks +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||111-114||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* Hawks/Cavs No Brainer on Hawks +
|05-23-15||Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5||Top||115-80||Loss||-108||18 h 30 m||Show|
5* Warriors/Rockets Vegas Insider on Rockets +
|05-22-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197||Top||94-82||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on UNDER
These two teams combined for just 185 points in Game 1 and I just don't see this being a high-scoring series given the form that both of these two are in. Cleveland is playing without Love and Irving is hobbled and potentially might sit this one out. The Hawks are more than likely without Carroll and even if he does play he will be at less than 100%.
The Hawks defense forced the Cavaliers into a lot of isolation sets, which slows their offense way down. Had it not been for J.R. Smith being on fire, Cleveland likely wouldn't have struggled to reach 90 points. Smith is extremely inconsistent and chances are he won't have near the same impact in Game 2.
UNDER is 10-2 in the Hawks last 12 games when revenging a home loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when coming off a home loss. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Cavaliers last 10 after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (26-3) system. Take the UNDER 197!
|05-21-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||98-99||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
While the Warriors ended up winning Game 1 by just 4-points, there were some positive signs that point to a blowout victory in Game 2. Golden State trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd quarter and later led by as many as 11. In just a little over a half, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 37-points.
With Dwight Howard likely sidelined and not effective if he does play, I just don't see the Warriors taking their foot off the gas, especially after losing Game 2 at home after winning Game 1 in their last series against Memphis.
You also have to factor in that James Harden put up 28 on 11 of 20 shooting in Game 1 and to do so had to make a number of difficult shots. Even if Harden has another strong game, I still think the Warriors win here by double-digits. Take Golden State!
|05-20-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1||Top||97-89||Loss||-102||11 h 26 m||Show|
5* Cavaliers/Hawks NBA No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
Both of these teams closed out their last series with 3 straight wins after falling into an early 1-2 series deficit. While you could make a strong case for both teams in Game 1, I think the value here is clearly with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on their home floor.
Atlanta proved to be a horrible matchup for the Cavaliers in the regular season. Cleveland won the first game of the series at home, but would drop the last 3 by a combined 46 points. Cleveland had no answer defensively in those 3 losses, as the Hawks shot 50% or better in all 3 of their wins. With Cleveland playing without Love and Irving clearly at less than 100%, Atlanta provided a much better matchup here than most people think.
Cleveland is just 4-13 ATS in their 17 games this season when listed as an underdog and 4-14 in their last 18 road games when revenging a road loss. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road dog. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|05-19-15||Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10||Top||106-110||Loss||-110||11 h 16 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Warriors -
While the Rockets pulled off the shocking comeback against the Clippers, I'm not expecting Houston to put up much of a fight against the Warriors. While 10-points is a lot to be laying in a playoff game, keep in mind that Golden State swept the season series 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by double-digits.
I believe Houston's success at the end of the Clippers series was more a result of LA's starters running out of gas. The Clippers featured a thin rotation that just couldn't hold up. When they were were clicking they embarrassed Houston early in the series and that's what I'm expecting to see here, as the Warriors feature a deep roster and matches up well with the Rockets.
The other big factor here is rest. Golden State has been off since Friday, while Houston just played a do or die Game 7 on Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Rockets to come out with the intensity needed to keep it close on the road against a team like the Warriors. I also think the fact that Golden State fell behind early against Memphis will have them extra motivated to start the series strong.
Warriors are 9-1 in their last 10 home games when playing just their 6th game in a span of 14 days and have won these by an average score of 111.7 to 94.1 (+17.6 ppg). Golden State is also 12-4 in their last 16 off 3 straight wins by 10+ points and 6-1 in their last 7 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Warriors. Take Golden State!
|05-17-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Houston Rockets||Top||100-113||Loss||-109||6 h 41 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
The better team advanced to the conference finals in each of the other 3 series and I expect this one to be no different. The Clippers got outplayed in Game 5 at Houston and let their foot off the gas at home in Game 6. Even with the Rockets getting Game 7 at home, I like the Clipper to come out with a win to move on to face Golden State.
Road favorites playing with double-revenge after a game where the opponent played on the road and each team scored 100+ points have gone 57-24 (70%) ATS since 1996. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 8-2 in their last 10 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Los Angeles!
|05-15-15||Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 197.5||Top||94-91||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Wizards UNDER
These two teams combined for just 163 points in Game 5 at Atlanta and I look for the strong defensive efforts to carry over to Game 6. Keep in mind that the these two teams only combined for 87 points in the 2nd half of Game 4.
It's not a surprise that the defenses are starting to win over the offenses, as these two teams are now extremely familiar with how far we are into the series. Atlanta's offense hasn't looked right for awhile and the Wizards matchup extremely well. On the flip side of this, I actually think the return of Wall hurts the offensive chemistry that Washington had built up.
UNDER is 12-1 in Atlanta's last 13 playoff games when they have an opportunity to close out the series, giving us a strong 92% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!
|05-14-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -2||Top||94-73||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
5* Cavs/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
Cleveland has taken back control of the series with two straight wins to lead 3-2, but I look for them to really struggle here in Game 6 against a Bulls team with their backs against the wall. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers invested a lot in those two wins, as those were two games they couldn't afford to lose.
Both of those games came right down to the wire and Chicago was missing a key part in their offense in Gasol, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Getting Gasol back makes the Bulls a much more dangerous team and I believe it will be the difference in this one.
Cavaliers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, while Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100+ points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 80% (32-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-13-15||Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||78-98||Loss||-103||12 h 29 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Grizzlies +
While the Warriors were able to come away with an easy 101-84 win at Memphis to tie up the series at 2-2, I don't see them blowing out the Grizzlies in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that Memphis won at Golden State 97-90 in Game 2 as a 10-point dog.
This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Warriors, as they laid everything they had on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I do think there's a good chance that Golden State wins this game, but 9.5-points is a lot to cover, especially the way these two teams have been grinding it out defensively.
Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends add up to form a strong 79% (30-8) system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|05-12-15||Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||103-124||Loss||-110||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA No Limit Top Play on Clippers -
While the Rockets are facing elimination and this may seem like the spot to back them as a small home dog, I just don't think Houston is going to be able to extend the series to a Game 6. Doc Rivers understands the importance of closing out the series and getting that extra rest before the conference finals, especially with Paul nursing a hamstring injury.
Houston has already lost at home to the Clippers without Paul and were fortunate to win Game 2 with Paul sidelined. They clearly had a lot to play for in their two games in LA and they didn't show up in either of those contests, getting blown out by 25 points in Game 3 and 33 points in Game 4.
Clippers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 road games overall, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against poor free throw shooting teams that are making 71% or less from the charity line and 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 27 or more free throw attempts/game. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (36-7) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|05-11-15||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 196||101-84||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
Each of the first three games in this series have failed to surpass 188 points, yet the books continue to post a total around 196-198 points. It shouldn't come as a huge surprise that these two teams aren't putting up a ton of points. The Warriors led the league in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies were 4th.
The home team typically is the one that dictates the tempo and Memphis clearly wants to slow this game down and not let the Warriors get into any sort of rhythm offensively. The Grizzlies are doing an excellent job of defending the 3-point line and a lot of that has to do with the perimeter defense of Conley and Allen.
I'm expecting all out defensive effort here from both teams, as I think both teams are aware that this game could very well decide the series. UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog, 23-3 in their last 26 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!
|05-10-15||Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||95-128||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* Rockets/Clippers NBA No Limit Top Play on Rockets +
I'm expecting a much better effort defensively from Houston in Game 3 and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. These two teams are more evenly matched than the spread would indicate and I don't see there being such a drastic difference in shooting percentage in Game 4. The Clippers shot 55.4% from the field in Game 3, while the Rockets hit just 39.8% of their attempts.
This is a zig-zag theory play at it's finest and so far the system has been hitting at a high rate here in the conference quarterfinals. Adding to that is the fact that the Rockets are 20-8 in their last 28 after a defeat and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a loss of 10+ points.
Road underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent off a home win are 75-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% 5-year system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-09-15||Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 197||89-99||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
4* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA Playoffs No Brainer on UNDER
While the first two games in this series have finished with a final combined score of 187 points, the total hasn't really moved due to the public liking to back the OVER in Golden State games. I just don't see this turning into an offensive shootout.
Memphis is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially on their home floor. Conley and Allen are more than capable of slowing down Curry and Thompson and that really makes it difficult for the Warriors to get into a rhythm offensively. Golden State is equally as strong defensively and I think they turn their focus to that side of the ball in Game 3 on the road. Memphis is looking to slow the game way down and aren't a great outside shooting team.
UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 9-1 in their last 10 off an upset win as a road underdog. UNDER is also 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!
|05-08-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||Top||96-99||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
Cleveland came out on a mission in Game 2 to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series and the Bulls simply weren't able to match that intensity off that big win in Game 1. I still think Chicago is the better team here with the Cavaliers missing Love and really like the value we are getting with the Bulls laying just 1.5-points at home.
Cleveland was on fire from downtown in Game 2, hitting 46% (12-26). I just don't see that kind of shooting carrying over on the road against a Bulls defense that will be a lot better than it was in Game 2. Cavaliers rely too much on 1-on-1 basketball with James and Irving and need them to be special just to keep it close.
When the books list the Cavs as an underdog, it's been a wise move to take the favorite, as Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS this season when getting points. The Cavs are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a win by 10+ points. Chicago on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a loss of 10+ points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points. These trends combine to form a 80% (33-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|05-06-15||Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5||Top||109-115||Loss||-107||12 h 42 m||Show|
5* Clippers/Rockets NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Rockets -
LA shocked Houston in Game 1 by winning on the road and stealing the homecourt advantage without Chris Paul in the lineup. I don't know if it was the long layoff from the first series or the fact that they thought it would be an easy win with Paul on the sidelines, but the Rockets clearly didn't show up to play.
That's not going to be the case in Game 2. The Rockets have to treat this like a Game 7, as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2 in the series. The Clippers on the other hand are in a prime letdown spot. They got the split they wanted and I would be shocked if Paul played tonight. I could see this one getting ugly in a hurry in favor of the Rockets, as LA is already likely looking ahead to Game 3.
Houston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 110+ points and 8-1 ATS in last 9 home games when revenging a loss. Rockets are also 10-1 ATS off a home loss and 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 or more. These trends combine to form a strong 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!
|05-05-15||Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||97-90||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Grizzlies +
The Grizzlies were without one of their most important pieces in point guard Mike Conley in Game 1 and shot a dreadful 25% from the 3-point line in a 15-point defeat. With Conley expected to return and a good chance Memphis won't be as bad from long-distance, I believe we are getting some incredible value here with the Grizzlies catching double-digits in Game 2.
One of the important things to note is that Memphis' defense played well in the series opener, limiting the Warriors to just 101 points. Conley not only helps out offensively, but his defensive presence on Curry should make a big difference. I don't think it's out of the question that Memphis wins this game outright.
Home favorites that won more than 75% of their games and leading in a playoff series are just 13-37 ATS against a team with a winning record since 1996. That's a 74% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!
|05-04-15||Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 194.5||Top||99-92||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
The most recent matchup between these two teams came towards the end of the regular season (4/5) and there was a decent amount at stake with Cleveland not having safely secured the No. 2 seed. The total posted for that game was an identical 194.5 and the two teams ended up combining for 193.
With how big a series this is and the intensity that comes with the playoffs, I think we are seeing a ton of value on the UNDER. The biggest key here is that Cleveland has lost Kevin Love and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games.
Both of those guys do a tremendous job of spacing the defense, not having them on the floor is going to allow the Bulls to collapse inside and take away the driving lanes for James and Irving. In that last contest back in early April, Love had 11 points (3 3-pointers) and Smith had 24 (8 3-pointers).
I think there's a good chance that both teams fail to score more than 90 points. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing with 3 or more days of rest, 18-6 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 in the Cavs last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record. These trends combine to form a 75% (42-14) system. Take the UNDER!
|05-03-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197||Top||86-101||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on UNDER
The last time these two teams faced off in the regular season the total was set at just 196.5 points. That alone shows you the value we are getting here, as the defensive intensity will be taken to a whole different level.
A lot of people think the Warriors are all flash on offense, but that's not the case at all. Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis to no surprise also ranked inside the Top 5 in that category.
Grizzlies know they keep up with the Warriors in a shootout and Golden State understands that Memphis has little to no chance of beating them at home if they match the Grizzlies intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Steph Curry backed up this point, saying, "Our defense is going to show up. That's what we're going to bank on for the whole series."
UNDER is 68-24 in games with a total set between 190 and 199.5 points, where you have a well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days (Warriors), on Sunday. That's a 74% long-term system. BET THE UNDER!
|05-02-15||San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||109-111||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs +
The home team is just 1-4 in the last 5 games of the series and that lone win was the Spurs 100-73 blowout victory in Game 3. I look for the trend of the road dominance to continue in Game 7. Unlike the Clippers, San Antonio knows how to close out a series.
The big key here for me is that the Clippers have had to rely so much on their starters that it's hard for me to envision them having enough left in the tank to pull out the win. They clearly wanted it more than the Spurs in Game 6, but now we are going to see San Antonio lay it all on the line and they have a lot more gas left in the tank.
Spurs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 playoff games when tied in a series, 20-7 in their last 27 off a home loss and 24-7 in their last 31 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (72-26) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|05-01-15||Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||111-87||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
While the series hasn't played out the same as the Bulls/Bucks, I believe we are going to see Atlanta rise up to the occasion, just like the Bulls did in Game 5, and put this series to rest.
I don't think the Hawks expected to get this much fight out of Brooklyn, but now that the series can be closed out, I look for them to come out with their best showing. The books simply haven't set the line high enough given the circumstances. If Atlanta wins like I'm expecting, there's a really good chance they win by at least 4-points.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 106-60 ATS since 1996! That's a 64% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-30-15||Chicago Bulls -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||120-66||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
5* Bulls/Bucks NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
It's almost as if the Bulls thought the Bucks were going to lay down and give them the series after they took a commanding 3-0 lead. That hasn't been the case at all, as Milwaukee has won 2 straight. Most of that is a result of the Bucks wanting it more. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, as I look for Chicago to come out and treat this like Game 7. The Bulls are the better team and I'll take my chances on them closing this thing out and doing so by at least 4-points.
Bucks are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games after successfully covering 2 or more straight games and 1-9 in their last 10 home games off 2 or more consecutive wins. Chicago is 25-12 in their last 37 after failing to cover 2 or more straight games and 7-1 in their last 8 when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 74% (60-21) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-29-15||Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200||Top||97-107||Loss||-103||9 h 55 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets/Hawks UNDER
I believe we are seeing a major overreaction here from the books due to Game 4's high-scoring affair that saw the Hawks/Nets combine for 235 points. Only 208 of those game in regulation, as the two combined for 27 in overtime.
Each of the first 3 games in the series finished with 191 or less, including a mere 174 in Game 3. Defense has the edge as these series progress, which is why I'm not expecting to see a repeat of the strong shooting percentages from Game 4, where Atlanta hit 48.4% from the field and Brooklyn 47.9%. Keep in mind that even with both teams red-hot, they only went over the posted total for Game 5 by a mere 8-points in regulation.
UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots and 12-3 in their last 15 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. UNDER is also 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in their last 5 following a game where they failed to cover. These trends add up to form a strong 82% (32-7) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-28-15||Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 222||94-103||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavs/Rockets UNDER
While 3 of the first 4 games in the series have seen at least 126 combined points scored, I believe there's simply too much value here with tonight's total. Keep in mind that the first game in the series had a total of just 213 points, so there's some big time inflation going on with the total here eclipsing 220.
Houston's defense was non-existent in the last two games, but they were a lot better on that side of the ball at home in the first two games of the series. With a chance to close out the series and get some rest before taking on either the Clippers or Spurs, I look for the Rockets to really get after it on that side of the ball at home. As good as they are offensively, they don't want to get in a shootout with Dallas.
UNDER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 13-6 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. UNDER is also 33-17 in Dallas' last 50 road games after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (53-25) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-27-15||Atlanta Hawks -4.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||Top||115-120||Loss||-103||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks -
The Hawks have had a surprisingly tough time with the Nets so far in the series and are coming off a 83-91 defeat in Game 3. Atlanta clearly hasn't played to the same level as we saw early on the regular season, but I'm not about to give up on the Hawks.
Atlanta's struggles in the last two games have simply been a result of poor shooting. The Hawks shot just 38.9% from the field in Game 2 and 35.6% in Game 3. The key thing to note is that they are getting good looks and with the shooters they have it's only a matter of time before they get going.
The Nets are playing with a hobbled Deron Williams and to this point have over-achieved in the series. It's also important to note that Brooklyn doesn't have much of a homecourt advantage, as they went just 19-22 at home during the regular season.
Hawks are 23-13 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game on the road. Atlanta is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a full days rest. These trends combine to form a strong 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!
|04-26-15||Los Angeles Clippers +6 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||114-105||Win||100||26 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Clippers +
This is a perfect spot to back the Clippers in Game 4. After dominating Game 1 107-92, LA gave one away in Game 2 in overtime and were simply outplayed in Game 3 at San Antonio. As a result of the Spurs 100-73 win in Game 3, we have seen this line jump quite a bit. The Spurs were just a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3 and are now laying 6 at home in Game 4.
I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I really like the Clippers chances of winning this game outright. LA couldn't buy a basket in Game 3 and you could see it had a negative effect on their play defensively. I'm confident the Clippers will shoot better than 34% in Game 4.
Road underdogs revenging a home loss of 20 or more points against an opponent against an opponent off a home win by 10+ points are 47-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% long-term system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-25-15||Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3||Top||115-109||Loss||-102||13 h 51 m||Show|
5* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA No Limit Top Play on Trail Blazers -
After getting embarrassed in the first two games of the series at Memphis, I look for the Trail Blazers to bounce back in a big way at home in Game 3. Portland finished the regular season with one of the top home records in the league at 32-9 and I'm confident they will answer the call with their season on the line.
The Trail Blazers certainly can't shoot any worse than they have to start the series. After going just 33.7% from the field in Game 1, Portland shot just 39% in Game 2. Their defense actually did a decent job against the Grizzlies, holding them under 45% in both games. Portland shot 45% from the field at home in the regular season and I believe the comfort of home will be the difference in this one.
Counting their final regular season game, where they shot just 41.8% at Dallas, we find Portland in a very profitable spot here, as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games after shooting 42% or worse in their last 3 games. It's also worth noting that road underdogs who have won 3 or more straight home games and are playing just their 5th game in 14 days are a mere 10-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 76% long-term system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!
|04-24-15||Toronto Raptors +5 v. Washington Wizards||99-106||Loss||-115||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* Wizards/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors +
The Raptors became just the 5th team since 2002 to fall behind 0-2 with homecourt advantage in their first two games. The good news for Toronto is that each of the previous 4 in this spot have not only went on to cover the spread in Game 3, but have won the contest outright.
I believe we are going to see this trend continue. Despite how poorly the Raptors played in those first two games at home, they had a chance to win both of those. Washington isn't a team with a lot of playoff experience, which could have them lowering their guard and not quite understanding the importance of this game.
Toronto won the only regular season meeting at Washington 120-116 as a 5-point dog and were up by 15-points at the half. Wizards are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games when listed as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while Toronto is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after failing to cover 2 or more consecutive games and 7-0 in their last 7 road games after playing their last game as a home favorite. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (42-13) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|04-23-15||Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3||Top||113-106||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA No Limit Top Play on Bucks +
This line alone is telling you that the oddsmakers are expecting the Bucks to win Game 3, as the betting public will be all over Chicago with this low line. The Bulls won Game 1 by 12 and Game 2 by 9, but both of those games were closer than than the final score would indicate.
While Chicago certainly doesn't want this series to drag out, they have a nice 2-0 cushion and could be focused more on saving up for Game 4 and looking to close out the series in Game 5. Either way I like the Bucks chances of pulling off the upset here.
Keep in mind the Bulls will be missing a big piece to the puzzle, as Nikola Mirotic is out with a quad injury suffered in Game 2. He's a big loss, as he does everything well and allows the Bulls to space the floor offensively with his ability to hit the 3-point shot.
Bucks are 20-9 ATS this season after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 following 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!
|04-22-15||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1||Top||111-107||Loss||-105||13 h 17 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Clippers -
The Clippers dominated Game 1 of the series 107-92. While most will be looking to back the Spurs in huge rebound spot, I believe the real value here is with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home. San Antonio simply has no answer for Griffin and Paul and figure to be in even more trouble with Tony Parker nursing an ankle injury.
Backing the team that loss the previous game in a playoff series is typically a strong investment, but that's not the case given the circumstances for this matchup. Coming into the playoffs, road teams off a road loss with a -3.5 to +3.5 have gone just 28-55-1 (33.7%) ATS since 2002.
Keep in mind that the Clippers have now won three straight against the Spurs and that San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS this season in road games against teams that have won between 60% to 70% of their games (0-7 last 7). They are also just 9-21 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 103+ ppg. On the other hand LA is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games when playing with 2 days of rest. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (50-19) system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!
|04-21-15||Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets UNDER 215.5||Top||99-111||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Total Top Play on Mavs/Rockets UNDER
These two teams combined for 226 points in Game 1, easily surpassing the total of 213. That high-scoring affair has forced the books to raise the total by 2.5-points and thus creating some great value on the UNDER.
The defensive intensity is at a different level in the playoffs and it gets turned up a notch after the first game of the series. Dallas tried to focus all their attention on Harden in Game 1 and it backfired with the other guys stepping up. Head coach Rick Carlisle is one of the best ad making adjustments in the playoffs and I look for the Mavericks to do a much better job defensively in Game 2.
It's important to note that these two teams played 4 times during the regular season and all 4 of those meetings finished with fewer than 211 points. One of things that gets overlooked is how good defensively the Rockets were given their pace. Houston ranked 6th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.
UNDER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent and 13-5 in the Rockets last 18 when facing a team that's won 60% to 70% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 30-8 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off 2 or more consecutive overs (HOU) against an opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs (DAL). That's a 79% system. Take the UNDER!
|04-20-15||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187||Top||82-91||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on UNDER
It looked like Game 1 was going to fly over the total of 186 after the Milwaukee and Chicago combined for 111 points in the 1st half. Instead they just barely finished over the mark at 194. The Bucks managed just 40 points in the 2nd half and the Bulls scored just 43.
I believe that's more of the type of offensive output that we can expect to see going forward. Chicago's defense has really came on strong down the stretch and the Bucks just don't have any real dynamic offensive players.
The Bulls have held the Bucks to just 85.3 ppg over the last 8 meetings and aren't going to take their foot off the gas. Chicago needs to finish this series quickly and make sure they are 100% going into their much anticipated round 2 showdown against the Cavs.
UNDER is 6-1 in the Bucks last 7 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-8 in their last 27 road games when revenging a road loss. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Bulls last 29 off a home by 10+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 60+ in the first half of their previous game. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (56-20) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-19-15||Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 189||86-100||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
4* Blazers/Grizzlies NBA No Brainer on UNDER
Each of the last two meetings between these two teams resulted in low-scoring games. They combined for just 190 points at Portland on 2/22 and a mere 183 at Memphis on 3/21. Given the intensity of the playoffs and the fact that both of these two teams ranked inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency for the season, I look for this one to stay well below the mark.
UNDER is 23-4 in Memphis' last 27 home games, 20-5-1 in their last 26 off a SU win and 7-1-1 in their last 9 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 5-1 in Blazers last 6 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses to an opponent. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (80-19) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-18-15||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* Bucks/Bulls NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
The Bulls have once again overcame numerous injuries to win 50-games, but unlike previous years they are entering the playoffs healthy. I think Chicago is more than capable of winning the entire thing and certainly should have no problem getting past a slumping Bucks team.
Milwaukee has not been the same team since they traded away Brandon Knight and lost 3 of 4 during the season series to Chicago. Three of those wins for the Bulls came by 8 or more points and the lone loss was by just 4-points on the road and they were missing Rose. The Bucks are not a good road team and I just don't see them being able to keep this one close enough to cover.
Milwaukee went just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that had won more than 60% of their games. Chicago is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a full 2 days of rest. These trends add up to form a 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-15-15||San Antonio Spurs -5 v. New Orleans Pelicans||Top||103-108||Loss||-115||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Spurs -
The Pelicans need to win this game to make the playoffs, as a New Orleans loss and an Oklahoma City win over the lowly Timberwolves would leave the Pelicans out of the postseason. Unfortunately for New Orleans, this game means a lot to the Spurs as well.
With a win San Antonio can secure the No. 2 seed in the West, while a loss could push the Spurs as far back the No. 6 seed. Given the fact that San Antonio has won a season-best 11 straight games to get to this point, I don't see them not finishing off their run with a win here at New Orleans.
The Pelicans have won 7 of 10, but only won of those came against a playoff team and that was at home against Golden State, who didn't have much to play for, were in the midst of playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and fresh off a crushing 15-point loss at San Antonio. This team simply isn't as good as their recent run would suggest, which in turn has created some great value here on the Spurs.
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who led in their previous game by 15+ points at the half against an opponent that has scored 100+ in 2 straight games are just 9-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
|04-14-15||Toronto Raptors -1.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||93-95||Loss||-105||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
Despite having Monday off, the Celtics clinched one of the final two playoff spots in the east, thanks to a Nets loss at home to the Bulls. Boston has been playing as well as anyone down the stretch and laying it all the line to get into the playoffs. Now that the goal has officially been accomplished, it's human nature for them to suffer a letdown.
Toronto is also locked into the playoffs and have secured homecourt advantage in the first round, but they are still battling with Chicago for the No. 3 spot, which is the difference between playing a dangerous Wizards team or a slumping Bucks team in the first round. That's not the only motivation here for the Raptors, as they will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 116-117 home loss to the Celtics earlier this month (4/4). Toronto can also set a franchise record for wins in a season with a victory.
Adding to this is a strong system. Home teams off a game where they led by 20+ points at the half are just 74-111 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 60% long-term system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!
|04-13-15||Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets +1.5||113-86||Loss||-110||9 h 36 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Nets NBA Vegas Insider on Nets +
While the Bulls have won two straight and got a big time performance out of Derrick Rose in his 3rd game back from injury, Chicago has not performed well on the road of late. In fact, the Bulls are just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road haven't won consecutive away games since early February.
While the Bulls can afford a loss at this point, this is essentially a playoff game for the Nets. Brooklyn is tied for the 8th and final spot in the East with Indiana and 1-game back of 7th place Boston. They hold the tiebreaker over the Pacers, but a loss here would really cripple their chances. Nets have won 5 of their last 6 at home with the only loss coming to Atlanta by a final of 111-114.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Bulls. Teams revenging a home loss against an opponent that is coming off a road loss by 10 or more and the line is set at +3 to -3 are just 20-46 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!
|04-12-15||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 207.5||Top||104-116||Loss||-105||9 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pacers/Thunder UNDER
With both Oklahoma City and Indiana fighting for their playoff lives right now and both teams fresh off a days rest, I'm expecting both to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. The Pacers are currently 9th in the east, but are just 1-game back of both Boston and Brooklyn. The Thunder are in tie for 8th with the Pelicans, but technically 9th as they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Indiana allowed 103 in their last game against Detroit, but prior to that had held each of their previous 3 opponents under 90 points. While Oklahoma City's defense hasn't been great of late, the Pacers are only averaging 97.3 ppg on the season.
These two teams combined for just 197 in the previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City and the last time they played in Indiana the two combined for just 199. UNDER is 29-14 in the Thunders last 43 after allowing 100+ in 4 straight games and 35-19 in the Pacers last 54 after allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less in each of their last 5 games. Take the UNDER!
|04-11-15||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic OVER 192||80-79||Loss||-110||11 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER
While the Knicks come in averaging just 91.8 ppg and the Magic are averaging just 96.0 ppg, these are also two bad defensive teams. New York allows 101.3 ppg (103.3 on the road) and Orlando gives up 101.7 ppg (102.8 at home).
The key thing here is that there's absolutely no reason for either of these teams to be excited about this game. Both are more interested in making plans for the offseason at this point and I'm expecting zero defense to be played, creating some nice value on the total.
OVER is 13-3-1 in the Knicks last 17 versus a team with a losing record and 10-1 in the Magic's last 11 against a team with a losing record. These two trends combine to form a strong 85% (23-4) system. Take the OVER!
|04-10-15||Toronto Raptors v. Orlando Magic +6||101-99||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Magic +
This might seem like an obvious spot to take the Raptors, given they are fighting for playoff position and first round home court advantage, while the Magic were out of the race a long time ago. I don't believe that's the case at all.
Orlando hasn't thrown in the towel at all and come in riding a 3-game winning streak, which includes a 105-103 home win over the Bulls as a 7-point dog in their last contest. While Toronto enters off a 92-74 blowout win at Charlotte, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games.
Toronto is also just 2-10 ATS this season off a road win by 10+ points, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they made 12 or more 3-pointers. They are also just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 1-day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!
|04-09-15||Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Miami Heat||89-78||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Heat NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Bulls +
The Bulls are showing some great value here as an underdog. While it might appear the Heat have more to play for, seeing they are 1-game out of the 8th and final playoff spot, Chicago is just 1-game in front of 5th place Washington and in danger of not having home court advantage in the first round.
It might also be perceived that the Bulls are at a disadvantage given their recent road woes and the fact that they are playing on no rest, but I'm not concerned. Butler was the only player to log more than 35 minutes last night. Not to mention the Bulls lost to the Magic 103-105, which is going to have them extra motivated to come out strong tonight.
What a lot of people are overlooking is the fact that Miami has not been playing well at all of late. The Heat were able to escape with a 105-100 win at home over Charlotte last time out, but are just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10.
Chicago will also be playing with revenge from a 84-96 home loss as a 7.5-point favorite back on 1/25. Bulls are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a game they failed to cover. Miami 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 after a SU win and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus the Central. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (84-34) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!
|04-08-15||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Milwaukee Bucks +7.5||104-99||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks +
With Cleveland's 99-94 home win over the Bulls on Sunday, they are all but locked into the No. 2 spot in the east. The Cavaliers have a 4-game lead over the Bulls with 5 to play and also hold the tiebreaker over Chicago.
While Cleveland is in a position to coast through the rest of the regular season and start focusing on making sue their guys are healthy and fresh for what figures to be a long playoff run, the Bucks are still trying to secure a spot in the postseason. Milwaukee is just 3.5 ahead of 9th place Miami. While they figure to hold on to that lead, they are just 2 in front of 7th place Brooklyn and 3 ahead of 8th place Boston. Falling back to either of those spots, would mean a first round matchup against either the Hawks or Cavs.
As good as the Cavaliers have been at home, they are just 21-18 on the road and are only outscoring opponents by 2.4 ppg. Defense has been the main culprit for their road struggles, as they are giving up 101.0 ppg. Cleveland is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division games , while the Bucks are 9-4 in their last 13 against the Central. Take Milwaukee!
|04-07-15||Charlotte Hornets v. Miami Heat UNDER 189||Top||100-105||Loss||-105||9 h 22 m||Show|
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Hornets/Heat UNDER
Miami is tied with Indiana at 34-43, which has them 1-game back of the Celtics for the 8th and final spot in the Easter Conference. Charlotte is right behind both of those teams at 33-43, just 1.5-games out of the playoffs. With just 5-games left on the schedule, both teams desperately need a win here.
I believe it's going to a lead to a low-scoring game, as both of these teams rely a lot on their defensive. The Heat are allowing just 97.2 ppg and Charlotte is giving up 97.0 ppg, while both teams average less than 95 ppg offensively. All 3 of the previous matchups this season have seen a combined score of 187 or less, including a mere 154 in the most recent matchup.
UNDER is 0-9 this season when Charlotte is playing with 2 days rest and 2-12 in the Heat's last 14 when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). These two trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (21-2) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-06-15||Wisconsin v. Duke +1||63-68||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
4* NCAA Championship Game Vegas Insider on Duke +
As impressive as the Badgers win over Kentucky was in Saturday's Final Four showdown, that's a win that can be extremely difficult to bounce back from in just a matter of two days. Beating the Wildcats was like winning the National Championship.
Duke on the other hand has cruised to the title game. Their closest game in the tournament was a 6-point win over Utah (63-57) and that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. Another big factor here is that the Blue Devils went on the road and beat Wisconsin 80-70 in non-conference play and it could have been a lot worse. Duke shot 65.2% from the field, while limiting the Badgers to just 40.7%. Unlike Kentucky, the Blue Devils have the outside shooting and speed on the perimeter that can exploit the Badgers defense.
Duke is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 tournament games, 11-3 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10+ points, 6-0 in their last 6 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer ppg. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Blue Devils. Take Duke!
|04-06-15||Portland Trail Blazers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 202||96-106||Push||0||10 h 45 m||Show|
3* Blazers/Nets NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER
This is a rescheduled game from Jan. 26 and as a result it's got both teams playing here with limited rest. Portland will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and while they had yesterday off, this is a long way to travel for just 1-game. Brooklyn will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, but it's also their 5th in the last 7 days.
I just don't see either team being all that efficient offensively, especially when you factor in the intensity that both teams figure to be playing with. Portland has at least the No. 4 seed locked up in the west, but that doesn't guarantee home court advantage in the first round, something this team desperately wants and needs. They are actually 1-game back of 5th place Los Angeles and 1/2-game back of 6th place San Antonio. Brooklyn on the other hand has just a 1/2 game lead over 8th place Boston and is just 2 in front of 11th place Charlotte.
UNDER is 13-5 in the Nets 18 games this season when playing against a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 100+ points in each of their last two games. UNDER is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (31-12) system. Take the UNDER!
|04-05-15||Chicago Bulls +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||94-99||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
4* Bulls/Cavs NBA Vegas Insider on Bulls +
The Cavaliers are getting way too much respect here as a near double-digit home favorite against a Bulls team that has won 6 of 8 and are still fighting to hold on to the No. 3 spot in the east. Cleveland has a comfortable 3-game lead over Chicago for the No. 2 spot with just 6 to play.
The Bulls might not have Rose, but have more than enough to win this game outright and at worse keep it close enough to cover. Chicago has really kicked it in gear defensively down the stretch and Bulls head coach tom Thibodeau has a history of being able to slow down James. I'm looking for both teams to bring the defensive intensity and a low scoring competitive game certainly favors Chicago as a 9-point dog.
Cavs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 division games, while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a contest where they failed to cover the spread. Take Chicago!
|04-04-15||New Orleans Pelicans v. Portland Trail Blazers -5||90-99||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Trail Blazers -
Portland has had their way with the Pelicans in their two meetings so far this season. They won 102-93 at home on Nov. 17 and 114-88 at New Orleans on Dec. 12. The Trail Blazers had lost 5 straight, but have since won 5 of their last and are still fighting for playoff position.
While the Pelicans have been playing well of late and are in a heated race for the 8th and final spot in the west, this is a horrible spot for New Orleans. They will be playing on no rest after last night's game at Sacramento and this will be their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland also played last night, but didn't have to use up much energy in a 30-point rout of the Lakers.
Something else to keep in mind with New Orleans, is that their 4-game winning streak has come against the Kings (twice), Timberwolves and Lakers. The Pelicans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Portland!