4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Colorado +

I really like the situation here with the Buffaloes catching points on the road against the Beavers. Oregon State comes into this game off a huge 71-69 home win over Utah, while Colorado enters off an embarrassing 20-point loss at Oregon. This is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers and an even bigger bounce back spot for the Buffaloes. 

Oregon State's win over the Utes wasn't their first big home win in conference play. The Beavers have also knocked off Oregon, Cal and USC at home. While that could be taken as a sign to go against the Buffaloes, the Beavers have followed up each of those big home wins with a loss. Colorado on the other hand has not lost back-to-back games in the Pac-12 and followed each of their previous 2 defeats in conference play with a win on the road the next time out. 

Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as a home dog. Take Colorado! 

4* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Annihilator on Baylor +

The Bears are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is getting a lot of respect here after their impressive 81-76 win at Iowa State, but I look for them to struggle to put away Baylor by more than the number listed here. The Bears have owned the Mountaineers of late. They have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only loss being a 2-point loss at home back in 2014. 

This is also a tough spot for West Virginia. They invested a lot into beating the Cyclones and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Tuesday's huge showdown at Kansas, which could be the game that decides the Big 12 regular season title.

At the same time, Baylor is in a prime bounce back spot, as they lost 59-67 at home to Texas last time out. The Bears shot just 35.2% from the field in that game, which is uncharacteristic, as they are shooting 46.7% from the field on the season. It's also worth noting the Bears have won 3 straight on the road, with impressive wins at both Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Take Baylor! 

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt -

The Commodores come into this game off their best game in quite some time, as they rolled No. 8 Texas A&M 77-60 at home on Thursday. That's the kind of win that can really light a fire under a team and I look for Vanderbilt to ride that momentum with another big time performance on the road against Ole Miss. 

The key here is that even with the win, the Commodores are still showing value due to their poor play against the spread prior to the victory. Even with the cover against the Aggies, Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Ole Miss comes in off a road win over Missouri and have covered 3 of their last 4, which is also helping this line. 

While the Commodores are just 3-7 on the road this season, that's more of a result of the talent they have had to play away from home. Vanderbilt's 7 road losses have come against Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas. The Rebels are simply not in that class of talent and while they are 8-2 at home, they haven't beat anyone at home as good as Vanderbilt and have lost 2 of their last 3 with defeats to Florida and South Carolina. 

Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games, while the Rebels are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Take Vanderbilt! 

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Rockets - 

I really like the value we are getting here with the Rockets as a relatively small home favorite against the Trail Blazers. While Portland lost 103-110 at home in their last game against the Raptors, that's not considered a bad loss given how Toronto has played. The Trail Blazers are still being overvalued due to previously having won 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. 

The big key here is that Portland just took advantage of a 7-game homestand and now hit the road for the first time since Jan. 18. I just don't see the Trail Blazers bringing the intensity needed to keep this game close, especially when they know in the back of their minds that they get the Rockets at home on Wednesday. 

Portland is also not a great road team, especially when going up against a above average team. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Rockets on the other hand are are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road win, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - 

This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons. 

Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season. 

Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers -

This is a big bounce back game for Los Angeles after a lackluster performance at home in a 102-108 loss to the Timberwolves as a 10.5-point favorite. That defeat didn't sit well with leader Chris Paul and you can be assured the Clippers will come out with a different mentality against the Magic tonight. 

Orlando on the other hand is coming into this game off a crushing 114-117 loss at Oklahoma City, where they failed to score over the final 2 minutes and 31 seconds. Those kind of defeats are not easy to bounce back from and the Magic haven't exactly been playing well of late. Orlando is just 1-10 in their last 11 and 2-15 in their last 17. 

Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning on average by 8.4 ppg. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game they failed to cover the spread. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100+ and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Big Money Revenge Game of the Week on Hawks - 

I really like the value we are getting Atlanta in this spot. The Hawks are going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after dropping each of the first two meetings against the Pacers this season, including a 19-point defeat in the most recent matchup on 1/28. Key thing to keep in mind is both of those games were on the road in Indiana. Atlanta is a much stronger team at home, where they are 16-8 and they swept their two home games against the Pacers last year, winning by an average of 14.5 ppg. 

Indiana comes into this game off a 14-point win at Brooklyn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Pacers have been struggling for about a month now, as they are just 4-7 in their last 11 games. With Paul George struggling to find his shot and the Hawks having shot 52% or better in each of their last two, I just don't see Indiana putting up much of a fight in this one. 

Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 10-points and 11-24 in their last 35 road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against at team with a losing road record and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take Atlanta! 

5* UCLA/USC Pac-12 Vegas Insider Top Play on USC -

The Trojans went on the road and dominated UCLA 89-75 back on 1/13 and I look for USC to have no problem winning and covering at home in the rematch. One win over the Bruins isn't going to satisfy the Trojans in this rivalry, as UCLA had won each of the 6 previous meetings. This time around it's USC that's the better team. 

Just playing at home is enough to back the Trojans in this spot. USC is a perfect 13-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 17.6 ppg. They have only played 4 conference home games to this point and 3 of those have come by double-digits. The only exception being an overtime win against a really good Arizona team. UCLA on the other hand is just 4-6 on the road with a 1-3 record away from home in the Pac-12. The only win coming against Oregon State, who is just 3-6 in league play. 

UCLA is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 against up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams averaging 84 or more points/game. Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after playing a game at home and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more. Take USC! 

4* Raptors/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors + 

I believe we are seeing great value here with Toronto at basically a pick'em on the road against the Trail Blazers. Portland is getting a lot of respect from the books due to having won 5 straight, but it's not as impressive as it looks. All 5 wins came at home against teams with a winning record. When actually facing a quality opponent, the Blazers have struggled, going just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.

Toronto suffered an ugly loss at Denver on Monday, but came back the next night with a 104-97 win at Phoenix and are now 12-1 over their last 13 games. It's not secret that the Raptors are led by their backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and I look for these two to take this matchup personal with all the talk about how good the Blazers backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum is.

Portland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off 5 or more consecutive wins and 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Toronto!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton +

The Bluejays are showing great value here as a big time dog on the road against Villanova. Creighton is going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder off back-to-back losses at Georgetown and at home against Seton Hall. The Bluejays gave away a big lead late against the Hoyas and that loss clearly had an effect on their energy level against the Pirates. 

Villanova is a great team, but they aren't exactly playing their best basketball at the movement. The Wildcats followed up a shocking 76-82 home loss to Providence with a 68-53 win at St Johns. Winning by 15-points looks good on paper, but that wasn't a great showing by Villanova.

With Daniel Ochefu still out with a concussion, I don't see the Wildcats turning this one into a blowout. Ochefu played a huge role in Villanova's 14-point win earlier this season, scoring 19 points on 9 of 10 shooting and grabbing 7 rebounds. it also helps negate the likely absence of Creighton center Geoffrey Groselle. 

Bluejays are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6. Villanova is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Creighton! 

4* Pistons/Celtics NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pistons + 

This is going to seem like a small number for the Pistons to be laying at home against the Celtics, who have won 6 of their last 7, but Detroit is catching Boston in a great spot. The Celtics will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 6th game overall in their last 10. Boston is also in a huge lookahead spot with a showdown at Cleveland on deck. 

Detroit is a team that when they come to play are more than capable of winning on the road against a team like Boston. In fact, they already have a road win over the Celtics, defeating them 99-94 back on 1/6. Detroit has taken 2 of 3 in the series overall this season. 

Pistons are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as a road favorite. Boston on the other hand is a miserable 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong rebounding teams who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Take Detroit! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

The public will be all over Atlanta in this one, as the Hawks have destroyed the 76ers in their two previous meetings this series, winning 127-106 at home on 12/16 and 126-98 at Philadelphia on 1/7. However, I don't think it's going to be as easy this time around. Atlanta is not playing great basketball at the moment, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7 and just 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. 

Philadelphia is a miserable 7-41 overall, but have been playing much better of late. The 76ers are a much more respectable 6-11 over their last 17 and will be playing with a ton of confidence after a near upset at home of the Warriors last time out (lost 105-108 on last second shot). Philadelphia will also have fresh legs off a 2-day break, while Atlanta will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. 

Hawks are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game against the Western Conference and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover where the team lost outright as an underdog. Take Philadelphia! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami - 

We are seeing great value here on the Hurricanes off an ugly 69-85 loss at NC State last time out. Not only is that loss playing into this favorable line, but the fact that Notre Dame is off a 23-point win over Wake Forest and have won 5 of their last 6 is creating value. 

I wasn't all that surprised to see the Hurricanes struggle on the road against the Wolfpack, as they were coming off a huge 80-69 win at home against Duke in the previous game. That loss will have Miami re-focused for a big showdown against the Fighting Irish at home, where they are 10-1 on the season and a perfect 4-0 inside ACC play. It's also worth noting that all 4 home wins in conference play have come by double-digits. Notre Dame won at Duke not that long ago, but they have also lost by 11 at Virginia and 15 at Syracuse and are just 4-5 away from home overall. 

The Irish are just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 off a conference win by 20 or more points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons why they come in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Miami! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas +

The Razorbacks are showing big time value here against the Gators. Florida is simply getting way to much respect due to their 17-point blowout win at home against West Virginia last time out. This is a huge letdown spot for the Gators, who will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at Kentucky. 

Arkansas on the other hand comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. I believe that victory over the Aggies last week was the kind of win that can spark a big run for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is playing with tremendous confidence and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one. Would not surprise me at all if the pulled the outright upset. 

The Gators are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 off a win and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games. Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record. It's also worth noting the underdog has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Take Arkansas! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Michigan - 

The Wolverines are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game tied with Iowa a top the Big 10 standings at 8-1, but a lot of that has to do with a soft schedule to start out conference play. Indiana just recently lost at Wisconsin and were nearly upset at home against Minnesota in their last game. 

The Hoosiers are simply overvalued right now and should be a bigger dog than we see here against a Michigan team that is playing some of it's best basketball of the season. The Wolverines have won 4 straight and are a quiet 7-2 in league play with their only 2 losses coming on the road against Iowa and Purdue. This is a team that beat Maryland at home and comes into this game 11-1 on their home floor this season. This is a statement game for the Wolverines and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up running away with this game. 

Indiana is just 0-6 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons after playing 4 straight games as a favorite, while the Wolverines are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after 15+ games against a top caliber team, who is outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg. Take Michigan! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Duke -

The Blue Devils have lost 4 of 5 and fallen out of the Top 25, which in turn has created exceptional value here with Duke laying a small number on the road against the Yellow Jackets. While things haven't gone the Blue Devils way of late, this is still an elite team in my eyes and you can't overlook the fact that 3 of their 4 losses during this current stretch have come by 5 points or less. 

Georgia Tech is a quality team, but are also struggling to find ways to win. The Yellow Jackets are an identical 1-4 in their last 5 games and just 2-6 in ACC play overall. A key advantage here for Duke is they haven't played since last Monday and with how bad they have been playing, there's no question that it's been a hard week of practice. This is a statement game for Duke, who has a chance to get things back on track with 3 straight at home after this contest. 

Duke is 60-40 (60%) ATS in their last 100 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after failing to cover in their last game and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.  Take Duke -3.5! 

4* Celtics/Knicks NBA ATS No Brainer on Celtics -

The Celtics are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Knicks. Boston had their 5-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 114-119 loss at Orlando, but that was a tough spot for the Celtics. Boston had just defeated the Magic in their previous game at home by 19-points and simply weren't able to match the intensity of Orlando in the rematch. I look for that loss to serve as a wake-up call and for the Celtics to return back to the form that saw them win 5 straight. 

New York on the other hand hasn't been playing well. The Knicks have lost 4 of 5 and are coming off a ugly 95-116 loss at home to the Warriors last time out. New York did beat Boston at home 120-114 in the most recent matchup back on 1/12, but that's actually a positive. 

The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games revenging a loss to an opponent, where they allowed 100 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games revenging a road loss to an opponent. 

We also find a strong system in play, as Road favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite and off a loss as a favorite in their last game are 77-40 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nuggets OVER

I look for the Nuggets and Raptors to cruise past the total set for this matchup. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games, as 6 of the last 7 in the series have eclipsed the mark set by the oddsmakers. That includes a 106-105 game earlier this season that had a total of just 189.5. 

The Raptors come into this game clicking on all cylinders offensively. Toronto has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games and should have no problem extending that streak to 10 against a Nuggets team that has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games. It's also important to note that Denver is playing very well on the offensive end right now as well, the Nuggets have scored 100+ in 8 straight. Toronto has a good defense, but just allowed 107 in their last game against the Pistons and I don't see the defensive intensity being there with this being their first road game after a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

OVER is 10-3 in the Raptors last 13 against an opponent that scored 100 or more in their last game, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last game and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last 7 home games, 10-1 in their last 11 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. 

Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). 

It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. 

UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* UNC/Louisville NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Louisville -

The fact that the Cardinals are favored after getting embarrassed at home by highly ranked Virginia (47-63) on Saturday, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers are expecting from Louisville in a huge bounce back spot tonight. The public is going to be all over North Carolina, who has won 12 straight and yet to lose in conference play (8-0). 

The Cardinals simply couldn't have played any worse against Virginia. They shot just 32.7% from the field, while allowing the Cavaliers to shoot 57.8%. I fully expect them to rebound with one of their best performances of the season in what is a huge statement game for the Cardinals. While North Carolina is also a highly ranked opponent, they aren't near as good defensively as Virginia. The Tar Heels come in allowing 74.4 ppg on the road. 

Another big factor here is that North Carolina's 12-game winning streak and perfect 8-0 record in the ACC is largely due to them not being challenged. The Tar Heels haven't faced the likes of Duke, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame or Miami in conference play. As a result they haven't been in a lot of close games and I look for them to struggle in their first real test in over a month. 

Tar Heels are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after winning 15 or more of their last 20. The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 15 or more points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10. Take Louisville! 

5* Oregon/Arizona St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Arizona St +

The Sun Devils are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Arizona State is a far better team than their 2-6 record inside the Pac-12 would indicate. The Suns Devils all 6 losses have come by 12-points or less and 4 of those by 7 or fewer. Arizona State snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 86-68 win at home over Oregon State on Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a big win at home against Oregon. 

The Ducks come in having won 3-straight, but are in prime position for a letdown after a huge 83-75 win at Arizona as a 7-point dog. Prior to that Oregon knocked off two other top Pac-12 teams in USC and UCLA at home. Even with the win over the Wildcats, the Ducks are just 4-4 on the road, while Arizona State is a strong 9-3 at home. 

Last time here the Ducks needed overtime to escape with a 68-67 win which was only their 2nd road win in the series since 2010. It's also worth noting the Sun Devils have a history of playing Oregon tough, as each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 7 or less with the only game decided by more than 3 coming at Oregon.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 15 or more against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 26-9 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Arizona State! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Warriors -

Golden State nearly suffered an unthinkable loss yesterday against the 76ers, as they blew a 24-point lead and needed a last second 3-pointer to secure the win an avoid overtime. That near collapse will certainly get the attention of the Warriors and I look for them to come out an put a beating on the Knicks. 

Regardless of how good the Knicks are or aren't playing, opposing teams really get excited about the opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden. That's especially the case for Western Conference teams, who only get to play here once a season. Anytime there's been reason for Golden State to get excited about playing, they have dominated the opposition. Last year the Warriors won by 14 at New York and the previous year they won by 23. 

While this could be considered a bad spot with the Warriors playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I don't see it being a problem, as they had 2 days off before their game against the 76ers and will have more 2 days off after this contest. 

Warriors are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread, 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 when playing on no rest and 13-5 in their last 18 road games with a total set at 210 or more. Take Golden State! 

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

This is a great situational spot to back Orlando at home as an underdog. These two teams just played 2 days ago in Boston with the Celtics winning going away 113-94. It's going to be hard for Boston to get excited about playing a team they just beat by 19-points, while Orlando is going to treat this like a must-win situation. 

While Orlando has struggled of late, they have played their best basketball at home, where they are 12-10 on the season, compared to 8-15 on the road. The Celtics have had their struggles of late playing up to their potential against teams who play well at home, as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record 

The Magic on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record and despite the loss to Boston on Friday are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Atlantic. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Celtics. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 , who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a marginal losing team are just 9-31 (22%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston!

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pacers - 

This may seem like a big number for Indiana to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but I'm expecting to see the Pacers dominate this one from start to finish. Indiana was just 1-6 over their last 7 before coming out with a dominant performance in a 111-92 win at home against the Hawks on Thursday. I don't see Indiana letting their foot off the gas, especially against a Denver team they recently lost to on the road 126-129. 

This is also a bad spot for Denver, who is not a good road team (9-14). The Nuggets will be playing their 3rd straight away from home in the last 4 days. Denver has also been awful defensively of late, allowing 111.7 ppg over their last 7. Another huge incentive here for the Pacers is they haven't won back-to-back games since early January. I just don't see Indiana overlooking the Nuggets and at the same time this is a game I think Denver isn't going to be all that interested in coming off a win and having just beat the Pacers recently. 

Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103+ ppg against an opponent that just scored 110 or more are just 43-78 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pacers are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas St - 

I really like the value here with the Wildcats at home in a game they desperately need to have. Kansas State has got off to a disappointing 2-6 start in Big 12 play, but this is a much better team than their record would indicate. They are going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 55-70 loss at West Virginia, which they shot just 35% from the field, including a dreadful 5.6% (1 for 18) from long-distance. Prior that loss the Wildcats destroyed Oklahoma State at home 89-73 and I'm expecting a similar type of outcome here. 

Ole Miss comes into this game off a 80-63 blowout win at home against Auburn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Rebels had lost their previous 4 games, including a 9-point loss at LSU and 6-point defeat at Mississippi State. Ole Miss opened up 10-2 in non-conference play but didn't play anyone. Their best win was against UMass at home and they lost to both George Mason and Seton Hall. 

A huge factor here and why I'm confident laying this number is the Rebels will be missing a huge piece in junior forward sebastian Saiz, who is the only player outside of Stefan Moody that's averaging double figures (12.8 ppg) and is by far the team's leading rebounder (9.8 rpg). Not only his absence big offensively, but it hurts them defensively. 

Kansas State is 23-12 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of nearly 10.0 ppg. The Wildcats are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on their 2nd game in a 7-day stretch, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Kansas State! 

4* ISU/Texas A&M NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Texas A&M - 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Aggies as a small home favorite, due to Texas A&M coming into this game off a 71-74 loss at Arkansas, while Iowa State comes in off a 85-72 blowout win against Kansas. What you have to keep in mind is the Cyclones have a huge homecourt advantage and Arkansas is arguably the toughest place to play in the SEC for opposing teams. 

I look for a completely different Texas A&M team at home, where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of 20+ ppg. Iowa State is 6-3 on the road, but have lost their two toughest road games against both Oklahoma and Texas. This game simply means more to the Aggies and I believe they are every bit as talented as the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games when they come in having covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, while the Aggies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers/game. Take Texas A&M! 

5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 

Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road.

Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. 

I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. 

UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

Orlando is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Celtics. The Magic have really struggled of late and are just 1-11 in the month of January, but could easily have a much better record, as they have struggled to hold on to leads and close out games late. Each of their last 3 losses have come by 7-points or less and they had a 16-point lead last time out against the Bucks. 

Boston comes in having won 4 straight, which is certainly playing into this inflated line. Last time out they failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog against the Nuggets, winning just 111-103. The big key here is the Magic figure to be the more motivated team in this one. Orlando is desperate for a win and comes in on 2 days of rest. Boston on the other hand will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and could find it hard to get up for the Magic, knowing they get them again on the road Sunday. 

It's also worth noting that Orland has won 3 of the last 4 in the series and the lone loss came by just 7-points in a game they led by 10-points at the half. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Atlantic and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Friday. Boston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with road winning percentage of 40% or less. Take Orlando! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Arizona St - 

The Sun Devils are arguably the most underrated team in the Pac-12 right now. Arizona State is just 1-6 in conference games, but could very easily have a winning record. They have lost 4 games by 5-points or less, including 3 straight by 5 or less. This is the definition of a must-win game and I look for the Sun Devils to respond in a big way against the Beavers. 

Oregon State is 3-4 in league play and that's with playing 5 of their first 7 conference games at home. The Beavers lost both of their road games in the Pac-12, including a ugly 54-71 loss at Colorado, which followed a huge 77-71 home win over Cal. We find Oregon State in a very similar spot here, as they come in off a huge 85-70 win at home against USC. On top of that, the Beavers could find themselves overlooking the Sun Devils with an even bigger road game on deck against Arizona on Saturday. 

Beavers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home (average loss by 16.3 ppg). Sun Devils on the other hand are a strong 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Take Arizona State! 

5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers - 

While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch. 

Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip.

It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Jazz -  

This might seem like a big number for the Hornets to be catching against the Jazz, as Charlotte comes in having won 3 straight, while Utah has lost 3 of 4, including a 92-95 home loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite last time out. There's good reason for the Jazz to be favored here by this number and the books are making it clear they think Utah has the advantage in this one.

One of the key factors that the Jazz have in their favor is revenge, as they have not forgot about a 119-124 double-overtime loss at Charlotte last week (1/18). Utah is also going to be motivated off that loss to the Pistons at home, as this is a team that plays it's best basketball on their home floor.

Another big factor here is the Hornets have not had much luck in Salt Lake City. They are 5-20 all-time and have lost 8 straight at Utah in the series. Making matters even worse for Charlotte is this a prime letdown spot after Monday's double-overtime win against the Kings. This will be their 4th road game in a 5-game stretch over an 8-day stretch. I just don't see the Hornets being able to match the intensity of the Jazz in this one.

Jazz are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 at home against the Hornets. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 100 points. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hawks - 

Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. The Hawks closed out their 4-game road trip with a convincing 119-105 win at Denver and could easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as they are 4-2 in their last 6 with 2 losses by a combined 6 points. 

The Hawks are a strong 15-7 at home and this will be taken as an opportunity to make a statement against the surging the Clippers. The big key here is that this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Clippers will not only be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 5th straight game on the road in the last 7 days. 

Another key factor is I think emotionally the Clippers are going to be drained, as they had to deal with a lot of outside drama with the Blake Griffin deal and came out playing inspired last night against the Pacers. Simply put, Atlanta is going to be the much more motivated team in this one. 

Hawks are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Atlanta! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets come into this game with a mere 1-5 record inside league play, but could very easily be sitting near the top of the standings. All 5 of Georgia Tech's conference losses have come by 8-points or less and that includes road games at North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. They also come in off a heartbreaking 71-75 home loss to Louisville. This team has proven itself against the top teams and I look for them to take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule here against NC State. 

The Wolfpack have also suffered some close losses, but they have come against weaker competition. The big key here is that we are catching NC State in a prime letdown spot off a huge home showdown against Duke and potentially without their best player in Anthony Barber, who averages 22.1 ppg. Barber is questionable with a knee injury and even if he does play I don't expect him to be his normal self. That's a big problem for the Wolfpack, as they desperately need him to be a major factor offensively to have any chance. If he doesn't end up playing, this game could turn into a blowout quickly. 

Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 or more consecutive losses, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. NC State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* Kings/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Blazers - 

This may seem like a big number for the Blazers to be laying against the Kings, but it's for good reason. Sacramento is in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only are the Kings playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after a double-overtime game last night, but this will be their 5th game overall in the last 7 days. 

I just don't see the Kings having the energy here to keep up with the Blazers. Rudy Gay, who scored 20 points last night, isn't expected to play tonight, while both DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rando both logged over 40 minutes against the Hornets. It's also worth noting that in back-to-back games this season the Kings are just 2-9. 

Portland on the other hand comes in off 2 days of rest and will be looking to push the pace to wear down Sacramento and take them out of this game early. The Trail Blazers are also playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Portland comes in off a 121-103 home win over the Lakers and have won 5 of their last 7. 

Kings are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 road games off a loss by 3-points or less and 15-30 revenging a same season loss to an opponent (lost 94-98 at home to Blazers on 12/27). Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Portland! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Alabama -

The Crimson Tide are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. Alabama has got off to a miserable 1-5 start in SEC play, but their lone win was an impressive 73-50 victory at home against South Carolina. The Crimson Tide did lose their other two road games, but one was against Kentucky and the other was a mere 2-point defeat at home to LSU in their last game. 

Given how things have gone and riding a 3-game losing streak, I look for Alabama to come out and play inspired basketball in front of the home fans against the Volunteers. Tennessee on the other hand is primed for a letdown coming off a huge 78-69 win at home against South Carolina. It's also worth noting that the Volunteers are just 1-7 away from home this season. 

The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when coming in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off 2 or more consecutive conference losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a conference home loss. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Wisconsin +

The Badgers are showing great value here as a home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game riding a 12-game winning streak, which includes a perfect 7-0 start in Big Ten play. What gets overlooked with the Hoosiers strong start is they have played a very favorable conference schedule to this point. They have not played a single game against Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue or Michigan.

They did face Wisconsin earlier this season, but only won 59-58 as a 7.5-point home favorite. I believe the winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Badgers come in off back-to-back impressive wins, defeating Michigan State at home and Penn State on the road. They are just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come by 6-points or less. 

Wisconsin is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 when revenging a loss of 3-points or less and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games against teams shooting 48% or better from the field. Indiana on the other hand is 2-15 ATS in their last 17 road games off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by more than 10 points. Take Wisconsin! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks - 

This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. 

The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Magic and the Grizzlies. Both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. Memphis comes in off a 101-106 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, snapping a 4-game winning streak. Orlando lost 116-120 in overtime at home against the Hornets in their last game, where they gave up a 15-point lead with 7:15 left in the 4th quarter. 

Not only will the defensive intensity be there for both teams, but we have two of the slower paced and least efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, while Orlando is 22nd in pace and 26th in offensive efficiency. I just don't see there being enough offensive possessions for this one to eclipse the mark set. 

UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Grizzlies last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a losing record. It's also 9-3 in the Magic's last 12 against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after allowing 105 or more points in their last game and 17-4 in their last 21 road games when playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Duke/Miami NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Miami - 

Miami is showing some exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to snap their 3-game skid with a 88-78 win at NC State, covering as a 5-point favorite, but that's nothing to get excited about, as the Wolfpack are just 1-6 inside ACC play. I still think there are major problems with this Duke team, especially as long as Amile Jefferson is sidelined. 

Miami comes in having won 2 straight and are 4-2 inside ACC play. Both losses came on the road against quality opponents in Virginia and Clemson. Most importantly the Hurricanes are a dominant 9-1 at home this season with impressive wins over Florida (66-55), Syracuse (64-51) and Florida State (72-59). Factor in the atmosphere with the opponent being Duke and this game being televised on ESPN and the homecourt advantage should be more than enough to propel Miami to victory. 

The Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 off a home win by 10 or more, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU win and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Duke is just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Monday, which are almost always high-profile games. Take Miami! 

4* Clippers/Raptors NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite. Toronto isn't a team that gets a whole lot of publicity and have quietly climbed their way near the top of the Eastern Conference, trailing the Cavaliers by just 2.5-games. Their actually tied with the Clippers for the 5th best record in the league and simply should be a bigger favorite at home than what we are seeing here. 

Toronto is 14-6 at home this season and come in having won 7 straight games. The reason this line isn't bigger, is the Clippers have won 12 of their last 14 and are fresh off a 28-point win at New York. The key here is that this will be Los Angeles' third straight game on the road in the last 4 days and that's a tall task to overcome for a west coast team playing all of these road games against Eastern Conference teams. 

Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Clippers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. It's also worth noting the Raptors have won 3 straight in the series, including a 11-point win at Los Angeles back on 11/22. Take Toronto! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit home dog against the Tar Heels. No question that North Carolina is one of the top teams in the country, but they are way overvalued on the road because of it. While the Tar Heels are 17-2 overall, they are only outscoring opponents by 12.1 ppg in conference play. 

The key here is that Virginia Tech isn't a team that's going to garner North Carolina's full attention, though they should. The Hokies are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-2 in their last 6 games with wins over NC State, Virginia and Georgia Tech. They also just nearly upset Notre Dame on the road as a 13-point underdog (lost 81-83). This is a team playing with a ton of confidence and I fully expect them to be the more motivated team in this one. 

Tar Heels are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Hokies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after giving up 80 or more points in their last game, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* Pacers/Kings NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Kings - 

Sacramento has quietly moved into the 8th spot in the Western Conference and are simply showing too much value to pass up at home against the Pacers. The Kings come into this game having won 4 straight, including a big home win over the Hawks last time out. 

They catch Indiana in a great spot, as the Pacers are going to have a hard time matching the intensity of the Kings after last night's huge road game against the Warriors. Not only is Indiana playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this is their 4th road game in a row. You also have to factor in the Pacers aren't playing all that great at the moment. Indiana has lost 4 of their last 5 and are just 7-11 in their last 18 overall. 

It's also important to note that the Kings went into Indiana and beat the Pacers 108-106 earlier this season. Indiana is just 1-8 ATS this season when revenging a home loss, losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pacers. Underdogs revenging a loss as a home favorite, who are off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are just 85-133 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! 

4* Maryland/Michigan St NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Michigan St - 

The Spartans come into this game having lost 3 straight and as a result are showing exceptional value here as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Maryland. Michigan State's only bad loss during this stretch came against Iowa, as they had a 1-point loss at Wisconsin (76-77) and 1-point loss at home to Nebraska (71-72). This is is simply too good a team to lose 4 straight, especially playing at home and I fully expect to see the Spartans lay everything on the line in this game. 

Maryland is a talented team and one of the best in the country, but playing on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task no matter how good you are. The Terrapins have struggled in both of their last two road games, barely escaping with a 63-60 win at Wisconsin and then losing at Michigan. Keep in mind last year the Spartans were a mere 1.5-point home favorite against Maryland and absolutely dominated them in a 75-59 win. 

Spartans are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a loss by 6 points or less and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas St - 

The Wildcats are showing some great value here even as a 6-point home favorite. After going 10-2 in non-conference play, Kansas State has opened a disappointing 1-5 inside the Big 12, but the big key here is they could just as easily have a winning conference record. They lost in overtime at home to West Virginia and on the road in their last game against Baylor. They also lost by just 3-points at Texas. The other two defeats came against Iowa State and Oklahoma, so there's plenty of reason to expect the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way at home against the Cowboys. 

Oklahoma State is a huge letdown spot after their shocking home win against Kansas last time out and it's important to note that their only other win inside conference play is a home game against TCU. They played Oklahoma tough at home, but have not looked good in their 3 road games, which include blowout losses to both Baylor (62-79) and West Virginia (60-77). Two teams Kansas State easily could have beat. 

Last year the Wildcats won 63-53 at home and took control early with a 31-21 halftime lead. I think it's going to be an even bigger blowout this time around. Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 6 or less, while Oklahoma State is just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 conference road games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games at least 15 games into the season when facing a team with a winning record. Take Kansas State!

4* NBA Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets have won 4 straight against the Bucks and are showing some tremendous value here as a mere 3-point home favorite tonight. We are seeing a low line here due to Houston being without Dwight Howard, but it's not like they aren't use to playing without him.

Milwaukee is also getting way too much respect due to coming in having won 3 straight, including back-to-back road games against the Hornets and Heat. Their last win against Miami was a blowout (91-79), but keep in mind the Heat are decimated with injuries right now. Even with those two wins away from home in their last two games, Milwaukee is just 7-18 on the road this season. 

Houston had been playing extremely well prior to dropping 3 of their last 4, as they had won 5 straight. Two of those losses came against two of the top 5 teams in the league in the Cavaliers and Clippers and they simply came out flat last time out against the Bucks. That won't be the case tonight, as I look for the Rockets to bring max effort in this one, as this is a game they know they can't afford to lose. 

Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 85 or less in their last game and a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +

Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. 

Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls. 

A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors.  That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

This is a great spot to back Utah as a relatively small road favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is arguably the worst team in the league and they have shown little to no signs of snapping out of their recent funk since losing starting point guard Jarrett Jack to a season-ending injury. The Nets have lost 9 of their last 10 and are just 4-18 in their last 22 overall. 

Utah is just 18-24 overall, but are a much better team than their record would indicate. If it wasn't for injuries, I strongly believe this team would be at .500 or better. The Jazz have been extremely unfortunate of late, losing 111-118 in overtime last time out at New York, which followed a double-overtime loss at Charlotte. Their loss prior to that was a heartbreaking 2-point defeat to the Kings at home. This team could very easily be 6-1 over their last 7. Regardless, we can expect a pissed off and highly motivated Utah team taking the floor tonight against the Nets and that should be more than enough for them to win here and cover this spread. 

Brooklyn hasn't just been losing games, they have been getting destroyed. Their average loss during their 1-9 recent run has come by 15.3 ppg. Brooklyn is only scoring 94.7 ppg at home and Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the league, especially when Gobert is healthy and controlling the paint. 

Jazz are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after a combined score of 205 or more last time out. Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Utah! 

4* Grizzlies/Nuggets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Grizzlies - 

Memphis is finally starting to play up to their potential. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and 8 of their last 11 overall. Memphis knows that now is their time to make a move in the standings and what I really like about their play of late is they are getting back to being dominant on the defensive end. Since Dec. 14 the Grizzlies are allowing a mere 95.2 ppg. 

Their defense should be more than enough to get a win on the road against the Nuggets, who are just 8-13 at home this season, allowing 105.3 ppg. Denver is getting a lot of love right now due to their recent win at home over the Warriors, but that was simply Golden State overlooking them. That won't be the case with Memphis. It's also worth noting that the Grizzlies have won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series with 3 straight wins by 7 or more points. 

Memphis does have a losing road record this year, but Denver is just 16-38-3 ATS in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing home record. Nuggets are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight games where 205 or more combined points were scored. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 on 2 days of rest, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Take Memphis! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Cal - 

The Golden Bears are showing great value here at home against Arizona State. California is prime for a dominant performance on their home floor tonight. The Golden Bears come into this contest off 3 straight conference losses on the road, but it's important to note that they could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 6-points or less. Prior to losing 3 straight on the road, Cal was impressive in blowout home wins over Colorado (79-65) and Utah (71-58).

Needless to say given their 3-game slide, Cal is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season. That should be more than enough to win and cover this spread, as the Golden Bears have a great home court advantage. Cal is a perfect 11-0 at home. Arizona State has dropped 3 of their last 4 true road games and are just 1-4 to start out Pac-12 play. 

Sun Devils enter off a 85-89 home loss to Washington and that's important to note. Arizona State is just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games off a home loss, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in their last game.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 90-42 (68%) ATS since 1997 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Take California! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kentucky -

The perception on Kentucky has taken a big hit of late, as the Wildcats are just 6-4 over their last 10 games and come into this contest off an ugly 70-75 defeat at Auburn as a 12-point favorite. While this is clearly not an elite Kentucky team like years past, this is still a very good Wildcats team. 

One thing Kentucky has been able to do extremely well is rebound off a loss. Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 after a loss this season. Their previous loss before Auburn was a 67-85 defeat at LSU. They followed that up with a 77-61 blowout win at Alabama as a mere 6.5-point favorite. 

Arkansas is quality team, but are no match for the Wildcats. The Razorbacks covered last time out in a 74-76 defeat at LSU, which snapped a 3-game winning streak. I believe Arkansas is simply getting way too much love here due to covering each of their last 4 games and will be no match for a motivated Kentucky team. 

Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 against the SEC. Take Kentucky! 

5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers +

The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85). 

Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers. 

These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. 

Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland! 

4* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Total Dominator on UNDER 

When it comes to playing elite teams at home the Bulls have been outstanding on the defensive side of the floor. Just to mention a few, Chicago has held the Cavaliers to 95, Thunder to 98, San Antonio to 89, Clippers to 80, Raptors to 97. I'm expecting that same defensive intensity against the Warriors, as they are well aware of what happened to Cleveland at home on Monday. 

These two teams played in Golden State earlier this season and combined for just 200 points with a total of 207.5. Given this is such a huge matchup and that it's a nationally televised game on ESPN, there's no doubt in mind mind this is an inflated total, especially with both teams coming off high-scoring games that went over the total. 

What gets overlooked on both of these teams is how good they are on the defensive end. Chicago ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 4th. Another important factor here is that this is a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, as there's no question that game at Cleveland meant a lot to this team. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference and 8-1 in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100 or more. UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 

These two teams combined for 216 points in their only previous meeting this season at Boston back on 10/30. The total in that game was just 200 points. Given that both teams have cruised past the over in each of their last 3 games, you would expect to see a much higher total in this game. That's a good sign the books are expecting a lot more defense this time around and I definitely think that's going to be the case. 

Anytime you get two division rivals going at it this late in the season, especially quality teams like we have here, the defensive intensity gets turned up a notch. Overall, both of these teams have been strong defensively against their division foes this season. Boston is only giving up 99.9 and the Raptors are allowing just 94.6 ppg. 

Toronto won that first meeting 113-103 at Boston, which is important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the Celtics last 14 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. UNDER is also 13-1 in Boston's last 14 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas +

The public perception is growing rapidly on West Virginia and as a result the Mountaineers are way overvalued here at home against the Longhorns. While West Virginia lost 68-70 at Oklahoma in their last game, they covered as a 4.5-point dog. That followed a 74-63 win at home over Kansas and 77-60 win at home against Oklahoma State. 

I believe we are going to see West Virginia come out bit flat here against Texas, as they laid everything they had into their last two games against Kansas and Oklahoma, two teams that were No.1 and No. 2 in the country. It's also not easy bouncing back from a heartbreaking loss like they had against the Sooners. 

Texas is a team that a lot of people wrote off early in the year, but the Longhorns come in playing extremely well. Texas followed up a huge 94-91 home win over Iowa State with a 74-69 win at home against Oklahoma State. It's also important to note that the Longhorns have lost once all season by double-digits and that was against a Texas A&M team that is one of the best in the country. 

What I really like here is the fact that Texas has consistently played West Virginia tough. The Long Horns have won 5 of the last 6 in the series and are 6-3 in the last 9. All 3 losses came by 7-points or less.

Adding to this is the fact that the Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog and the Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Texas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Irish. These two teams come in with near identical records, as Virginia Tech is 12-6 and Notre Dame is 12-5. On top of that, the Hokies are 4-1 in league play, while the Irish are just 3-2.

The key here is Virginia Tech wasn't expected to be any good this year and the books are going to be a lot slower to adjust on a team like this. In fact, they are more likely to inflate this line on Notre Dame, given they are coming off a huge 95-91 upset win at Duke as a 8.5-point dog. As impressive as that win appears on paper, that's not the same caliber a Blue Devils team as years past and it has them prime for a letdown. 

The Hokies 4-1 start to ACC play has been no fluke. Virginia Tech has wins over NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech on the road. Confidence is everything at this point in the season and there's no question the Hokies are going to be extremely motivated for this game when they see they are expected to get blown out of the gym according to the oddsmakers. 

Notre Dame is just 17-30 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons,  3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games after wining 3 of their last 4, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing their previous game as a road dog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* Wolves/Pelicans NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

As bad as the Pelicans have struggled to this point, New Orleans is still within striking distance of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. I still believe that this is a much better team than it's record would indicate and that is playing a big part in the value we are finding with New Orleans as   a relatively small home favorite against the Timberwolves. 

Minnesota comes in off a 117-87 blowout win at home against the Suns, but given the way Phoenix has been playing of late that's really nothing to get excited about. That win doesn't cover up the fact that the Timberwolves had lost 9 straight and 21 of the previous 25. Minnesota is just 3-12 over their last 15 road games and I just don't see them putting up much of a fight tonight. 

It's also important to note that New Orleans has owned the Timberwolves of late. The Pelicans have won 5 straight in the series and all 5 wins have come by at least 7 points. Last time they hosted Minnesota, they won 110-88. 

Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Western Conference, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Minnesota is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing a game as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take New Orleans! 

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern +

Northwestern is showing tremendous value here as a massive road dog against the Terrapins. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated line based on the recent results of both teams. The Wildcats just got embarrassed at home 62-71 as a 9-point favorite against Penn State, while Maryland rolled Ohio State 100-65 as a 10.5-point home favorite. 

Losing to the Nittany Lions at home isn't going to help the Wildcats cause of making their first NCAA Tournament, but this is without a doubt one of the best teams Northwestern has ever had. I look for Northwestern to be the much more motivated team in this one.

Not only because of what happened in each teams' last game, but they are going to want revenge from a 59-72 loss at home to Maryland back on 1/2. Coming off that big win over the Buckeyes, having already beat Northwestern and an even bigger game on deck at Michigan State, I don't see the Terrapins coming out with the kind of intensity to turn this into a blowout. 

It's also important to note that Northwestern has played some of their best basketball on the road. The Wildcats are 5-1 away from home with a perfect 4-0 record in true road games. Their only defeat away from home is a 11-point defeat to North Carolina on a neutral court. 

Maryland is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when revenging a loss by 10 or more points. Take Northwestern! 

5* Oklahoma/Iowa St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Sooners. Iowa State got off to a surprisingly poor start in conference play, losing 3 of their first 4, including a rare home loss to Baylor. They responded in a big way on Saturday in a must-win situation, going on the road and knocking off Kansas State 76-63.

I look for the Cyclones to carry over that momentum and hand the Sooners their second loss of the season. Keep in mind these two teams played in Oklahoma back on 1/2 and the Sooners barely escaped with a 87-83 win as a 6.5-point favorite. Playing with revenge and one of the best home court advantages in the country, Iowa State should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The Cyclones are 72-6 at home since February of 2011. Keep in mind they lost 83-94 at Oklahoma last year and then returned home in the rematch and defeated the Sooners 77-70 as a 6-point favorite. 

Cyclones are 24-4 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, while Oklahoma is a mere 8-17 ATS in their last 25 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State! 

3* Bulls/Pistons NBA ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

The Bulls have been waiting for their chance at revenge against the Pistons. Chicago has lost both meetings against Detroit this season in heartbreaking fashion. They fell 94-98 at Detroit back on 10/30 and then recently suffered a 144-147 4OT thriller at Chicago on 12/18. Not only are the Bulls going to be extremely motivated playing with double-revenge, but Chicago desperately needs a win here after losing 4 of their last 5. 

Detroit isn't going to have that same sense of urgency due to already having beat the Bulls twice this year. On top of that, the Pistons are in a prime letdown spot after a 113-95 home win over the Warriors as a 7-point dog, easily their best win of the entire season. 

Bulls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 revenging a home loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days of rest. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pistons. Home teams off an upset win as a home dog against an opponent off a home loss are just 12-40 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

4* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

This game has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Utah should be able to dictate the tempo in this one, as they will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, while the Hornets are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. No team plays at a slower tempo than the Jazz at 93.5.

Utah's overall defensive numbers aren't great, but that has a lot to do with center Rudy Gobert has missed a significant stretch. He's back in the lineup and the Jazz have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less, three times holding under 85. Charlotte only managed 92 points at home against the Bucks in their last game and I don't see the offense coming to life against Utah. 

Charlotte is giving up 100.4 ppg on the season, but they play much better defensively at home, where they are allowing 98.2 ppg. I look for the Hornets defense to be able to keep the Jazz in check, as Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are without 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (16.8 ppg). 

Under is 31-13 in the Hornets last 44 home games as a favorite of 6 or less, 23-11 in Utah's last 34 as a road dog of 6 or less, 8-1 in the Jazz's last 9 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 20-5 in their last 25 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Oregon/Colorado NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Colorado is 9-1 on their home floor this season and have own the Ducks of late with 3 straight wins at home in the series. Oregon is simply overvalued here due to coming in off 3 straight wins and having won 7 of their last 8. 

Colorado has cone and impressive 29-18 ATS in their last 47 in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Note that Oregon is only shooting 43.7% on the road compared to 46.1% overall. Ducks won 77-59 at Utah in their last game, but prior to that they lost 57-70 at Oregon State and 72-74 at Boise State. It's hard enough winning on the road in conference play and I just don't see Oregon pulling off back-to-back big road wins in this spot. Take Colorado! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

This is a great spot to back Minnesota as a small home favorite against the Suns. While the Timberwolves come in having lost 9 straight, this is a young team that is still playing hard right now. It also says a lot about what the books are expecting here from the Suns with the Timberwolves listed as a favorite. Phoenix has been equally bad of late, as they are just 1-12 in their last 13 games. 

Minnesota's not a great home team, but the Suns are straight up awful on the road. Phoenix is 4-17 away from home, losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. The Suns are playing little to no defense right now and the injury to Eric Bledsoe has really taken away from their ability to score on the offensive end. Phoenix has allowed 100+ points in 12 of their last 13 games and are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Suns. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 10-29 (26%) ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Minnesota!

4* Arkansas/LSU NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on LSU - 

I really like the value we are getting with LSU in this game. The Tigers are a well known commodity with freshman sensation Ben Simmons leading the way, but the public is starting to lose interest as they are just 5-9 ATS and have failed to cover each of their last 2. Arkansas on the other hand is a much more attractive option with this line, as they have won 3 straight and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. I believe it's resulted in a very favorable line here for LSU at home. 

The Razorbacks have won 3 straight conference games, but two of those have come against two of the worst teams in the league in Mississippi State and Missouri, while the other came at home against Vanderbilt. Arkansas' only real road test in the SEC came in their opener at Texas A&M and they got destroyed 69-92 as an 11-point dog. The Razorbacks overall are just 1-6 away from home this season, while LSU is a dominant 9-1 at home. 

The Tigers come in off a 90-81 win at home against Ole Miss, who I would classify as a similar caliber team to Arkansas and they did so without Ben Simmons playing well. Simmons had just 15 points, well below his season average of 20.3. LSU also overcame a 33-point effort from Ole Miss' Stefan Moody and 11 3-pointers made by the Rebels. 

It's also important to note that this is a bit of a lookahead spot for the Razorbacks with a huge home game against Kentucky on deck. It will be a lot easier to lookahead to that game with the recent success they have endured and I believe it adds up to a blowout loss on the road against a LSU team that is getting better and better as the season moves along. 

Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games after covering 4 of their last 5 and 28-60 ATS in their last 88 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take LSU! 

4* Bucks/Hornets NBA ATS No Brainer on Hornets -

This may seem like a big number for Charlotte to be laying at home against the Bucks, given the Hornets come in off a 107-109 loss at home last night to the Pelicans, while Milwaukee pulled off an impressive upset last night in a 108-101 overtime win at home against the Hawks. This is also looks like a lot of points given Charlotte is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 overall. 

The key thing to keep in mind with the Hornets lackluster play of late, is 6 of their last 9 have come on the road, where they are just 4-14 on the season. They did lose twice at home during this stretch, but that was against two of the best teams in the west in the Thunder and Clippers. The lone win was a dominant 107-84 win at home against the Hawks on Wednesday. 

Not only is Charlotte going to be the more motivated team in this one, given they are coming off a loss and the Bucks are off a win, but this is an absolutely awful spot for Milwaukee.

It would be hard enough for the Bucks to bounce back on no rest on the road after an overtime win at home against a top level team, but it becomes even harder when factor in this will be their 4th game in 5 nights, arguably the worst scheduling spot you can find yourself in the NBA, especially when that 5th game comes on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Milwaukee is just 5-18 on the road this season, losing by an average of 9.6 ppg. 

It's also worth noting that the Hornets won 87-82 at home in the last meeting in the series, as underdogs revenging a road loss to an opponent who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 28-59 (32%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte! 

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Vanderbilt - 

Vanderbilt has got off to a disappointing 1-3 start to conference play, but were able to right the ship last time out with a 75-57 blowout win at home over Auburn. This might seem like a big number for them to be laying given their struggles to start SEC play, but the fact of the matter is this is a game the Commodores can't afford to lose, especially considering their next two are on the road. I look for Vanderbilt to treat this as a must-win situation. 

That should be more than enough to win here and cover the spread against Alabama. The fact that the Crimson Tide are a double-digit dog after just destroying previously undefeated South Carolina 73-50 at home as a 4-point dog, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of this team.

Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 8 on the road against an average Ole Miss team and 16 at home to Kentucky in their first two conference games. Alabama is also historically not a great road team and we have seen them lose badly away from home on multiple occasions this year, including a 32-point loss at Dayton and 19-point defeat to Xavier on a neutral setting.

Crimson Tide have been a great team to fade off a home win, as they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a victory on their home floor. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 20-points. Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and a dominant 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +

I believe we are getting exceptional value here on the Hoyas as a decently priced home dog against No. 6 Villanova. The Wildcats are certainly overvalued here being ranked inside the Top 10 and riding a 6 game winning streak that just saw them knock off Marquette at home 83-68. 

The key thing to keep in mind with Villanova's latest run, is they have only played 2 games on the road during this stretch. While they beat Creighton 85-71, that's not a great Bluejays team. The other road game was much closer, as they barely edged out a 60-55 win at Butler. If Villanova is vulnerable, it's definitely on the road. 

Georgetown enters this game having won 5 of their last 6, with 4 of the 5 wins coming inside conference play. The Hoyas lone loss came at Creighton, but that's not a big surprise. This team has consistently played up or down to their competition. Georgetown has wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Syracuse and lost by just 4-points on the road at Maryland and 2-points on a neutral court against Duke. 

Villanova has won 20 straight against conference opponents, but keep in mind the last time they lost came on this same floor nearly a year ago, as the Hoyas demolished Villanova 78-58 on Jan. 19 of last year. Given how big of a rivalry this is and how well Georgetown has played against elite competition this year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Hoyas won this game outright. 

Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on offense and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Georgetown! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Nuggets UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.5 ppg. Their effort on that side of the ball doesn't lapse on the road. In fact, they actually allow only 95.1 ppg away from home, which has resulted in 12 of their 16 road games this season going under the total. 

The Heat are going to have to rely on their defense over the next few games with starting point guard Goran Dragic out with an injured calf. This will be the 2nd straight game he's missed and in his first game out the Heat managed just 90 points against the Clippers. Miami ranks 29th of 30 teams in pace at 94.5 and that isn't going to get better with Dragic out. 

Denver comes into this game off a high-scoring affair in their 112-110 upset win at home against the Warriors. Any game involving the Warriors is going to be high-scoring given their offensive weapons and how fast they like to play (rank 2nd in pace).

The key thing to keep in mind is that prior to that game against Golden State, Denver previous 3 games were all very low-scoring. They combined for just 187 in a 95-92 win at home against the Hornets, 175 in 84-91 loss at Memphis and 152 in 78-74 win at Minnesota. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Miami's 15 games over the last 2 seasons after allowing 100 or more in their previous 2 games (haven't allowed 100+ in 3 straight all season). UNDER is also 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 12-3 in their last 15 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks -

Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets. 

I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process. 

The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

The Hornets come into this game off an impressive 107-84 blowout win at home over the Hawks, which I believe has Charlotte getting way too much respect here as a small road dog against the Pelicans. What can't get overlooked is just how bad Charlotte has been on the road. The Hornets are 4-13 away from home overall and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. 

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season so far, but the Pelicans were able to finish up their 3-game road trip with a 109-97 win at Sacramento as a 6.5-point underdog. I'm aware the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this has actually been a profitable spot to back New Orleans. They are 13-4 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

It's also important to note that the Hornets have struggled to cover in games that are expected to be high-scoring, which is definitely the case here with the Pelicans averaging 105.1 ppg and allowing 106.5 ppg at home. Charlotte is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games with a total of 200 to 209.5.

The Hornets are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Take New Orleans! 

4* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 ATS Vegas Insider on Utah - 

The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Ducks. Utah is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by more than 25 ppg. A big reason the Utes are showing value here is they are just 1-2 to start out conference play, but all 3 of those games have come on the road.

Oregon on the other hand is off to a strong 2-1 start to league play and come in off an impressive 71-58 win at home over Stanford, which followed a 68-65 home victory against Cal. However, the Ducks were embarrassed in their only conference road game, losing 57-70 as a 2-point favorite at in-state rival Oregon State. Overall, Oregon's only other true road game came at Boise State, which they also lost. 

The Ducks are a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games at home and 5-15 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is also 0-6 ATS in the last 2 seasons against dominant rebounding teams, who are outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game. The Utes are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after allowing less than 60 points and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games in the month of January. Take Utah! 

5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER

Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. 

It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. 

UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -

Colorado comes in this game having lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 of their first 3 conference games. Oregon State on the other hand has won 5 of their last 6 and are 2-1 in the Pac-12 with wins over Oregon and Cal. The key thing to keep in mind with the Beavers and their strong start to conference play, is they have played all 3 conference games at home. 

Oregon State hasn't played a true road games since the middle of November and their two road games haven't exactly been challenging against Rice and UC-Santa Barbara. Either way it's created some exceptional value here on Colorado who is 8-1 at home with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to Utah in their last game. Needless to say the Buffaloes are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid a 1-3 start to league play. 

Last year the Buffaloes won 64-58 at home against Oregon State and are 4-1 at home in the last 5 meetings against the Beavers. Oregon State is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. It's also worth noting that they were just 1-9 ATS in conference road games last year, losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. Take Colorado! 

4* S Carolina/Alabama NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Alabama +

We are seeing some great value here on Alabama as a home dog against South Carolina. The Gamecocks have opened up the season 15-0 with a ridiculous 10-1 record ATS. Needless to say it has South Carolina way overvalued here against the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has a big time home court advantage and are 5-1 at home this season with the only loss coming to Kentucky. The Crimson Tide are a proven commodity with non-conference wins over Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson. They are also going to come out extremely motivated after opening up conference play with back-to-back losses. It's also worth noting that Alabama is 8-1 SU at home in their last 9 meetings against South Carolina. 

Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 off a conference loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when coming off a conference home loss. South Carolina on the other hand is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less, as they were fortunate to escape with a 69-65 win at home against Vanderbilt in their last contest. Take Alabama! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Ole Miss +

It's well known that LSU has one of the best individual players in college basketball in Ben Simmons and that has had the Tigers consistently overvalued by the books. LSU gets treated like an elite team, but the Tigers are just 9-6 overall. They followed up their big win against Kentucky with a loss at Florida and have struggled against similar teams to what they will face tonight in Ole Miss. 

The Rebels are quietly playing really good basketball. Ole Miss has opened up 2-1 in conference play with solid wins at home over Alabama and Georgia in their last two and are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Rebels are 5-3 on the road this season and have a history of covering the number when away from home. Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6. 

The Rebels also have performed well against similar type teams to LSU. They are 21-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who average 77+ points/game and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams who take good care of the basketball (14 or less turnovers/game). Take Ole Miss! 

4* Pacers/Celtics NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Celtics -

The Celtics suffered yet another crushing loss last night, losing 114-120 at New York. Boston has now lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. This recent poor stretch has created some exceptional value here on the Celtics as a small home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana has a strong 22-16 record overall, but are just 9-11 on the road. 

Not only is Boston going to be extremely motivated to put an end to their losing streak, but the Celtics will be playing with double-revenge from two earlier losses this season to the Pacers. The last loss in the series came at home and that sets up a favorable spot to back Boston, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. 

Boston is also a team you can feel confident backing when playing on limited rest. The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 27-10 ATS in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Indiana also played last night, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

These two teams combined for 199 points in a 108-91 win by the Knicks at at home back on 12/4. The total for that game was just 192.5. You would expect to see a bigger total in the rematch, but it's actually lower and for good reason. Brooklyn is not the same offensive team as they were back in early December, as they have lost starting point guard Jarrett Jack. His loss has been evident of late, as the Nets are averaging just 82.6 ppg over their last 5. 

New York is coming off a high-scoring game last night in a 120-114 win at home against the Celtics. That actually favors the under, with the Knicks playing on the road with no rest. You also have to keep in mind Boston plays at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA. Add in the possibility that Carmelo Anthony won't play or will be hobbled if he does, and neither offense figures to do a lot in this game. This is also a big rivalry, which is going to have both teams playing hard defensively. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Nets last 13 when they come in having failed to cover in 3 or more consecutive games and 13-3 in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3-point shots. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Knicks last 34 against a team with a losing record and 11-5 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cavs/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs +

The Mavericks are showing huge value here as a decently priced home underdog. Dallas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 10 and are a solid 11-6 on their home floor this season. Cleveland is simply getting way too much respect here due to having won 7 straight. While the Mavericks aren't viewed as a push over, it's going to be hard for the Cavaliers to not look ahead to Thursday's big showdown at San Antonio on TNT, where they will take their crack at snapping the Spurs perfect 22-0 home record. 

One of the reasons Dallas has been playing well of late, is Dirk Nowitzki is playing at a high level. The 37-year-old put up 29 in their last game against the Timberwolves and has made 12 of 29 from long distance over his last 4. It's also worth nothing that Dallas has won 8 of the last 10 in the series. 

Cleveland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Mavericks are 8-1 ATS this season when listed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point underdog. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kansas State -

Kansas State is being way undervalued at home due to the fact that they come into this game off 3 straight losses, all of which have come inside conference play. Needless to say the Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated to get their first conference win. While Kansas State is going to lay everything they have into this game, Texas Tech could find it hard to get up for this matchup. The Red Raiders just played their hearts out in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas with the 10-point home loss to the Jayhawks coming just 3 days ago. 

The thing to keep in mind with Kansas State's poor start to conference play, two of their defeats came on the road to Texas and Oklahoma. The other a 4-point home loss to currently No. 10 ranked West Virginia. Adding to this is the fact that the Wildcats two non-conference losses both came against elite teams, losing on a neutral court to North Carolina and at Texas A&M. Add it up and 4 of their 5 defeats have come against teams currently ranked inside the Top 15. 

Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a road game where both teams scored 75 or more points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Texas Tech on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Kansas State! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -

The Cavaliers are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite. Virginia is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, extending their home winning streak to 13. They have also won 33 of their last 34 at John Paul Jones Arena. While the Hurricanes enter having won 8 straight and are 13-1 overall, their only true road game this season was against Nebraska, which they only won by 5 points. Keep in mind Nebraska is a bottom feeder in the Big 10. 

Adding even more incentive to this game for Virginia is the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers were favored in both of those games and are a dominant 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average of 13.9 ppg. 

We also find a strong system backing the Cavaliers based on their resent road defeats. Home favorites off 2 or more upset losses as a road favorite are 87-42 (67%) ATS since 1997. Take Virginia! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* Ohio St/Indiana NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Ohio St +

Ohio State is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Hoosiers. While Indiana comes in with an impressive 13-3 record and 3-0 mark in conference play, this is not the same caliber a team compared to just a week ago. That's because the Hoosiers recently lost second leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. You could see the impact of his loss in the near defeat at home against Wisconsin (59-58). 

Ohio State is flying under the radar right now, largely due to a poor start to the year, which saw them open 2-4 with 4 straight losses. That included defeats to the likes of Texas-Arlington and Louisiana Tech. They have since gone 9-1 with their only loss at UConn and they are currently riding a 7-game winning streak and fresh off an impressive 65-56 win at Northwestern, which is better win than people think. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Ohio State won this game outright.

Buckeyes are 34-19 ATS in their last 54 off an upset win as an underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites in a game involving 2 strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game are just 52-96 (35%) ATS after scoring 60 or less over the last 5 seasons. Take Ohio State!  

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing some great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Hurricanes. That value is a result of Florida State having lost their last two games at Clemson and at home to North Carolina. This is a very young and talented team that is not only capable of covering this big spread, but beating Miami outright. 

The Hurricanes are an impressive 12-1 on the season, which is also playing into this inflated line. The thing that you have to keep in mind with Miami's strong start, is the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. Their lone loss came at home to Northeastern as a 16-point favorite, which is a good indicator that this is not an elite team. Last year Miami only won 81-77 as a 8.5-point home favorite and this is a far superior Florida State team than the one they fielded a year ago. 

Seminoles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a conference home loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a total set at 150 to 159.5 points. Miami is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a conference win by 10 or more points and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Florida State!

4* Hornets/Clippers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Clippers -

The Clippers are quietly going about their business in impressive fashion, despite not having the services of star forward Blake Griffin. LA has won 7 straight and covered the spread in each of their last 6. What really stands out is that 6 of the 7 during their winning streak have come on the road. The lone home game was a 31-point rout of the 76ers.

I don't see the Clippers slowing down at home against a struggling Hornets team that has lost 5 straight and are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. Charlotte has also lost 6 straight on the road with all 6 coming by at least 7 points (5 by 9 or more). Another huge factor here is the success that the Clippers have had in this series. LA has won 3 straight and 9 of 10 overall with the only loss coming in Charlotte. 

Hornets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones come into this game off a 76-69 win at home against Texas Tech, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite. Baylor on the other hand enters off a 79-62 blowout win at home over Oklahoma State as a 9-point favorite. I believe this has created some exceptional value on Iowa State in a huge revenge spot. 

Last year the Cyclones lost both meetings against the Bears, falling 73-74 at Baylor and 70-79 at home. Iowa State brought back most of the core players from last year and you can be assured this is a game they have had circled on the calendar. Baylor has played well at home, but have really struggled on the road losing by 7 at Oregon, 19 at Texas A&M and 28 at Kansas (only 3 true road games). Iowa State has one of the best homecourt advantages in college basketball and I fully expect them to win this game going away. 

Cyclones are 11-4-1 ATS in last 16 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games, 5-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off a home win, while Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a mere 0-6 ATS off a home win by 10 or more points. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Virginia -

Virginia comes into this game off a 68-70 upset loss at in-state rival Virginia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite. Needless to say the Cavaliers are going to be pissed off from that performance and will be out to make a statement in a huge rebound spot against Georgia Tech, a team they destroyed in recent years. Virginia won 64-45 at Georgia Tech in 2014 and last year crushed the Yellow Jackets 57-28 at home. 

Any time you get an elite team like the Cavaliers off an upset loss, chances are they are going to come back with one of their best efforts in their next game. In an earlier upset loss at George Washington, Virginia followed it up with a 82-57 win on a neutral site against Bradley. Georgia Tech is a quality team, but not on the same level as the Cavaliers. Keep in mind this is a team that has lost badly to the likes of Villanova (52-69) and Georgia (61-75). They are 8-1 at home, but that's due to an easy schedule. 

The Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Take Virginia! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. 

Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. 

Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Cavaliers -

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Cavaliers on the road, but I look for Cleveland to make easy work of the Timberwolves in tonight's showdown on ESPN. Whenever LeBron James is involved in a nationally televised game, more times than not he brings his best regardless of the opponent. That's a big problem for Minnesota, as they simply don't have the talent to keep this competitive over 48 minutes. 

With Kyrie Irving getting more and more comfortable and starting to play up to his potential, Cleveland has the looks of a team that is ready to go on a serious run to start out 2016. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games and were a bad beat away from being 8-3-1, as they should have covered last time out against the Wizards. 

Minnesota is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 games and 6 of those 8 losses have come by double-digits. The Timberwolves also lost badly in both meetings against the Cavs last year, losing 104-125 at Cleveland and 90-106 at home. Minnesota is just 3-15 ATS in their 18 home games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing a game as a favorite. Take Cleveland! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!  

5* Cincinnati/SMU NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Cincinnati +

The Mustangs come into this game with a perfect 13-0 record and are overvalued because of it. SMU recently lost a key piece of their team, as guard Keith Frazier left the team prior to Saturday's game against South Florida. While the Mustangs won the game 72-58, they came no where close to covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. 

I think Frazier's departure is not only going to hurt them on the floor, but also have a negative impact mentally on this team. Even if he was still with the team, this is a lot of points to be giving a talented Cincinnati team. The Bearcats come in at 11-4, but have 3 losses by 7 points or less, including 2 by just 2-points to the likes of Butler and Iowa State. 

Cincinnati has all 5 starters back from last year's team that won both meetings against the Mustangs. The Bearcats won 56-50 at home as a 1-point dog and 62-54 at SMU as a 6.5-point dog.  Needless to say, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cincinnati won this game outright. 

SMU is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against strong offensive teams that are scoring 77+ points/game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 3 straight at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Take Cincinnati!  

3* Ohio St/Northwestern ATS Main Event on Northwestern -

The simple fact that Northwestern is favored in this game really says a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about these two teams. The Wildcats have opened up 13-2 with their only 2 losses coming against elite teams in North Carolina and Maryland. This Northwestern team is the real deal and I look for them to take down the Buckeyes on their home floor tonight. The Wildcats are 9-1 at home this season. 

Keep in mind that Northwestern has played Ohio State tough at home in recent meetings, despite losing each of the last 4 meetings. All 4 of those defeats were by 10 points or less with 3 coming by 2-points or fewer. This is the best Wildcats team during this stretch and arguably the worst team the Buckeyes have fielded over the 5 year period. Ohio State has a big win over Kentucky, but lost by 20 in their only true road game against Connecticut and struggled to put away Illinois at home in their last contest, escaping with a 75-73 win. 

Buckeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games win they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when listed with a line of +3 to -3. Wildcats on the other hand are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after playing their previous game at home and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit home loss. Take Northwestern! 

5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans -

The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup.

The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. 

New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. 

Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Wolves OVER 

I'm expecting a shootout in Minnesota tonight between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two teams have played twice in the last month. They combined for 219 points at Denver on 12/11 and then 212 at Minnesota on 12/15. Given how these two teams like to get up and down the floor and the little effort they give defensively, I see no reason why this game won't finish with 210+ points. 

Denver is scoring 103.2 ppg and giving up 109.6 ppg over their last 5, while Minnesota is scoring 99.7 ppg and allowing 102.9 ppg on the season. OVER is 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 with a total of 200 to 209.5 points and 16-6 in their last 22 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game. OVER is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Vegas Insider on Pacers -

While Orlando has been one of the big surprises early on this season, the Magic come into this game in a major slump. Orlando has lost 3 straight and haven't been competitive in any of the defeats, losing by 12 at Washington, 25 at Cleveland and 26 at Detroit. A big reason for that is the absence of starting point guard Elfrid Payton, who won't be in action again tonight. Keep in mind that top backup C.J. Watson is also out with an injury, leaving Orlando without a true point guard. It has a lot to do with their offense only scoring 91, 79 and 89 points in their last 3 games. 

While the Pacers have dropped 3 of their last 4, they could easily be riding a lengthy winning streak. All 3 losses come by 4-points or less and two of those were on the road against two of the top Eastern Conference teams in the Bulls and Heat. With Paul George back to playing at an elite level (31.7 ppg over last 3), I just don't see Orlando being able to keep pace offensively with the Pacers, who are going to come out inspired. 

Indiana has 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series, which alone is enough reason to back the Pacers at basically a pick'em. We also see the Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 when coming in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

Villanova comes into this contest off 4 straight blowout wins, defeating Delaware by 30, Penn by 20, Xavier by 31 and Creighton by 14, which has resulted in a drastically inflated line against a talented Seton Hall team that has won 7 straight, which includes a win over Wichita State and 20-point victory at Marquette. 

With a huge road game on deck against Butler and having just played to big games against Xavier and Creighton, I look for Villanova to come out a bit flat against Seton Hall. I still expect the Wildcats to win this game, but I look for it to be much closer than the spread would indicate.

Keep in mind that Seton Hall has been playing lockdown defense of late, allowing just 61.7 ppg and Villanova has had some problems offensively early on. 

Wildcats are just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 after two straight games where they made 50% or more of their shot attempts, while the Pirates are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 road games after playing their last game at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record. Take Seton Hall! 

4* Kings/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs -

The Mavericks are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Kings. Dallas is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back games at Miami (82-106) and at home to the Pelicans (98-105).

Those two losses are a big part in why we are getting a favorable number to back the Mavericks, as well as the fact that the Kings are coming in off two blowout wins over the Suns (142-119) and Thunder (116-104). Beating Phoenix at home isn't nothing to get excited about and their win over Oklahoma City came with Durant sidelined. Big key here is the Kings are just 5-11 on the road this season and are a mere 3-21 in their last 24 meetings with Dallas. 

Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 60+ points in the first half of their last game and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in last 15 off a SU loss, 11-4 ATS last 15 versus Western Conference and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Syracuse -

I really like the value we are getting with the Orange as a mere 5-point home favorite against Clemson. Syracuse is being undervalued here due to coming into this game off back-to-back ugly losses on the road to Pittsburgh and Miami, plus the fact that they haven't covered in 3 straight games. 

Clemson was able to pull off a big upset at home in their last game, defeating Florida State 84-75 as a 2-point dog, which followed a cover as a 15.5-point dog at North Carolina. Prior to that they got destroyed by 23 at Georgia. This is also a team that has lost at Minnesota, who is way down this year. With 3 straight huge home games on deck against Louisville, Duke and Miami, this is simply a horrible spot for the Tigers against a highly motivated Orange team. 

Syracuse is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by over 13.0 ppg, while Clemson is 1-4 on the road, getting outscored by nearly 8.0 ppg. Tigers are also 2-13 ATS in their last 15 off an upset win over a conference rival, 3-9 ATS last 12 vs team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games on Tuesday nights. Take Syracuse! 

5* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina -

South Carolina has quietly put together a perfect 13-0 start to the 2015-16 season and I look for them to be extremely motivated when they take the floor for their SEC opener tonight against Auburn. Keep in mind that the Gamecocks went 9-3 in non-conference play last year and ended up starting out just 1-6 in SEC play, so there's no concern here for me with South Carolina coming in too confident. 

Another huge factor here, is Auburn is missing some key players with injuries. The Tigers will be without 3rd leading scorer T.J. Dunans and could also be without the services of T.J. Lang, who is questionable with a concussion. Dunans is a big loss, as he's one of Auburn's best all-around players, as he averages 12.4 ppg to go with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. It's also worth nothing the Tigers have struggled against quality teams this year. All 5 losses have come by 7 or more, including recent defeats by 18 to Harvard and 12 to Hawaii. 

Gamecocks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, winning these by an average of 17.4 ppg. Gamecocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers/game and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 versus teams who average 77+ points/game. Take South Carolina! 

4* Oklahoma/Kansas NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Oklahoma +

Both of these teams come in riding 12-game winning streaks. Oklahoma is 12-0, while the Jayhawks are 12-1 with the only loss coming in the opener against Michigan State. While Kansas has the advantage of playing at home, this is a lot of points to be laying against a Sooners team that is more than capable of going into Lawrence and pulling off the upset. 

You could actually argue that Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule to this point and they have really been impressive against elite teams. The Sooners have a beat Wisconsin by 17, Villanova by 23, Creighton by 13, Washington State by 26 and most recently held on for a 87-83 win at home against a very good Iowa State team. 

Each of the last 5 meetings in the series have been decided by 8-points or less, so you can really see the value we are getting here with the Sooners. Kansas is also a team that is consistently overvalued in conference play, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 games. We also see that the Sooners are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 against elite teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Oklahoma!