|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-16||Magic +7.5 v. Pistons||98-92||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +
Great price to back Orlando here against the Pistons. This is a bit of a flat spot for Detroit, who have had just one day off following a big 4-game road trip and have a big division game on deck against the Bulls Tuesday. I believe there's value here due to the fact that Detroit won and covered each of their last 3. Keep in mind the Pistons were only a 4-point home favorite against the Magic earlier this season.
Orlando comes in just 2-5 in their last 7, but both wins have come in their last 3 games. They have also been playing better than their record would suggest during this stretch. Their largest loss during this stretch is just 8-points, with 4 of the 5 defeats coming by 5 points or less. The Magic did lose that earlier meeting and will want revenge against the Pistons.
Detroit is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and the Magic are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 road games in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. Take Orlando!
|12-03-16||Heat v. Blazers OVER 212.5||92-99||Loss||-110||12 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Blazers OVER
I'm expecting a shootout in Portland Saturday night between the Heat and Blazers. Miami has been one of the better defensive teams early on this season, as they come into this one allowing just 98.8 ppg. However, this is not a good spot for the Heat and the effort needed to play well defensively. Miami will be playing their 3rd straight road games in 4 days and 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. It's about as tough of a road slate as you will find, especially playing their last two at Utah and Denver on back-to-back nights and then having to turn around in play in Portland.
The defense has already showed signs of slipping here lately, as they have allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 8. Hard to see them slowing down a potent Portland offense on the road, as the Blazers come in averaging 113.3 ppg at home and have failed to eclipse to the 100-point mark just twice all season. The Blazers are also awful defensively, as they have only held two opponents under the century mark, giving up 100+ in each of their 14 games. Miami's offense has scored 100+ in 4 straight, so they are in good form and should have no problem making it 5 in a row. Take the OVER!
|12-03-16||Indiana State +6 v. Utah State||62-61||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +
Really like the value we are getting with the Sycamores in this one. Indiana State comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but have played a brutal schedule early and have more than proven themselves against some really good teams. That includes a 71-73 loss to Iowa State, a game they arguably should have won. They also have a 3-point loss to Stanford, 3-point loss to Quinnipiac and 2-point defeat at Northern Illinois. That's 4 losses by a combined 10 points.
Not only is this a game they can keep close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Utah State is 4-3, but the 4 wins have come against UC-Irvine, New Jersey Tech, Bristol and Idaho State. Not exactly anything to get excited about. Their true colors started to shine when they took a step up in competition, as they lost by 21 to Purdue, 24 to Texas Tech and 14 to BYU. Keep in mind this is an Aggies team that returned just one starter from last year's squad, which finished T-8th in the MWC with a conference record of just 7-11. Take Indiana State!
|12-03-16||Nets +9.5 v. Bucks||103-112||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Nets +
Big revenge spot for Brooklyn and we are getting great value here with them catching near double-digits. The Nets will take on the Bucks in Milwaukee after the two just played in Brooklyn on Thursday. The Bucks took that one 111-93 behind an uncharacteristic hot shooting from long distance. Milwaukee went 15-34 (44.1%) from 3-point range. Well above their season averages, as they are only making 9 3-pointers a game and shooting just 34.4% from behind the arc on the season.
Milwaukee is clearly playing better basketball right now, but they are simply way overvalued in this spot. The Bucks have won 3 straight and will find it hard to get motivated to play a bad Brooklyn team for the 2nd time in 3 nights. Keep in mind that while Milwaukee is 6-4 at home, they are actually getting outscored on average on their home floor this season (103.2-104.0).
The Bucks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 3-17 ATS in their last 20 home games after 2 or more straight up wins. Take Brooklyn!
|12-03-16||Nebraska-Omaha v. Iowa -10||98-89||Loss||-110||4 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Iowa -
This is a great spot to jump on the Hawkeyes at home. Iowa should be a much bigger favorite here, but aren't getting a ton of love after dropping 3 straight and sitting at 3-4 on the season. The thing is, Iowa has played a brutal schedule to start as their 4 losses have come against Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis and Notre Dame. All teams I think will be in the field for the NCAA Tournament.
This is a statement game for the Hawkeyes, who simply can't afford another loss and they should be able to have their way against an inferior Nebraska-Omaha squad that comes in with an identical 3-4 record, despite playing a much easier schedule. This is a team that lost by 13 at home against Rice as a 4.5-point favorite and gave up a 100 points in the process. They also recently allowed 94 points at Eastern Michigan in a 17-point defeat. The Hawkeyes have the offensive fire-power to exploit them and will bring the energy on defense to turn this into a blowout. Take Iowa!
|12-02-16||Rockets v. Nuggets -3.5||Top||128-110||Loss||-105||13 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Nuggets -
This is an ideal spot to back Denver at home against the Rockets. You might be asking yourself why Houston is a dog against a team that has 5 fewer wins them after they just knocked off the Warriors last night in Golden State. The answer is this this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rockets. It was going to be hard enough bouncing back from that game against the Warriors, but add in the fact that it took double-overtime and they simply aren't going to have much left in the tank for the Nuggets.
Only adding value is that Denver is one of the more difficult places to play in the second leg of a back-to-back, as the thin air only makes it that much harder for teams to play well when fatigued. It wouldn't shock me if Houston decided to just throw in the towel here and rest some players, as Harden, Anderson and Ariza all logged at least 43 minutes last night. Even Eric Gordon off the bench put in 39 minutes. Whether they play or not, I look for Denver to win here comfortably.
The Nuggets haven't played up to their potential early on, as they are just 7-11, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Denver is finally starting to get healthy. I've also really been impressed with rookie reserve Jamal Murray, who just took down the Rookie of the Month honors in the west.
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 or more points in 5 straight games. Take Denver!
|12-02-16||Wolves +2 v. Knicks||114-118||Loss||-105||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Wolves +
I really like the Timberwolves in this spot. Minnesota just lost at home to New York on Tuesday 104-106, as they two play a home-and-home set. There's almost always value in the team that lost the first meeting in these home-and-home deals and it comes down to motivation. Minnesota is going to be out for revenge and will put everything they have into winning this game, while the Knicks will find it difficult to get up for a team they just beat, especially when it's a sub-par team like the Timberwolves.
There were plenty of positives in the loss for Minnesota on Tuesday. The biggest being the ease of which Karl Anthony Towns scored a career-high 47 points to go along with 18 rebounds and 3 blocks. New York had no answer for the big man the first time around and I don't see it being any different in the second meeting. The big difference in the game was 3-point shooting, as the Knicks poured in 13 3-pointers to the Timberwolves 4. I look for a more even go of things in the long-distance shooting this time around and for Minnesota to leave here with a victory.
Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games when revenging a loss and 17-4 ATS in this spot when they allowed 100 or more points in defeat. Timberwolves have also been great at covering on the road when not playing with revenge, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota!
|12-01-16||Heat v. Jazz -10||111-110||Loss||-106||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -
I got no problem laying a big number on the Jazz at home against the Heat tonight. Miami comes in off an impressive 106-98 win at Denver last night, yet are getting double-digits? That really tells you all you need to know about how bad a spot this is for the Heat. It's hard enough playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. It will be extremely difficult for Miami, who is short-handed right now with Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow and Dion Waiters all sidelined. On top of that, there arguably isn't a tougher back-to-back road slate than going from the thin air of Denver to the thin air of Utah.
We are also backing a Jazz team that has been absolutely rolling of late. Utah has won 4 straight. All 3 wins at home during this stretch have come by at least 19 points. They beat Denver 108-83, Atlanta 95-68 and Houston 120-101. Keep in mind Utah is finally getting healthy and this a team that I had pegged to be one of the 4 best teams in the west. They already won 102-91 at Miami earlier this season and they are one of the few teams that really matches up well with the Heat. Miami's best player is Whiteside and Utah has arguably the best counter to him inside in Gobert, who is an absolute beast on the defensive side of the ball.
Jazz are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when playing against a team with a losing record, while the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Utah!
|12-01-16||Cincinnati v. Iowa State -7||Top||55-54||Loss||-115||11 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa State -
I got no problem laying this number with the Cyclones at home on Thursday against the Bearcats. This Iowa State team was just tested in their 3-games in Florida against Indiana State, Miami and Gonzaga. They escaped with a 73-71 win over an underrated Sycamores squad, crushed the Hurricanes 73-56 and came up just short against a top level Gonzaga team in a 71-73 defeat. Now they return home to Hilton Coliseum, where they are nearly unbeatable, as they have gone 60-5 at home over the last 4 seasons.
The Bearcats come in at 5-1, but have played a soft schedule early. Their 5 wins are against Brown, Albany, Penn State, Samford, and Lipscomb. The lone lost was a neutral site game against Rhode Island by 5. While Rhode Island is a decent team, they aren't on the same level as the Cyclones. It's also worth pointing out that Cincinnati could be without their best player in Gary Clark, who is the heart and soul of this team. He's questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, I don't think the Bearcats defense will be good enough on the road against an explosive ISU offense that is putting up 88.8 ppg.
Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch, while the Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a close loss by 3-points or less. Take Iowa State!
|11-30-16||St. Mary's -3.5 v. Stanford||66-51||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS No Brainer on St. Mary's -
I'm a big fan of this St. Mary's team, who comes into this game 5-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country. The Gaels come in off a 76-63 win over UAB on a neutral court and won 61-57 at Dayton earlier this season, which is a really impressive win. The Flyers are the favorites to win the A-10 and are a much more talented team than the Cardinal.
Stanford is 7-1 and fresh off back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Seton Hall in Orlando, but they also lost 53-67 against a pretty mediocre Miami team. This St. Mary's team is without a doubt the best team the Cardinal have played so far this season and I think they struggle to make this game competitive. Stanford isn't a great offensive team, as they come in shooting just 43.5% from the field on the season and are only averaging 4 made 3-pointers per game. The Cardinal are solid defensively, giving up 63.8 ypg, but so are the Gaels, who are only giving up 61.0 ppg. The big difference is St. Mary's is much more potent offensively, averaging 81.8 ppg, shooting 52.8% from the field and averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.
The Gaels are 33-18 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Take St. Mary's!
|11-30-16||Lakers v. Bulls -10.5||Top||96-90||Loss||-108||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Game of the Week on Bulls -
This is going to seem like a big number for Chicago to be laying at home against a Lakers team that has surprised early this season, but the situation calls for a blowout win by the Bulls. Chicago is rested up and ready to get back to action after a 4-day break following their 6-game road trip. Los Angeles on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played in New Orleans last night. This is also the Lakers 3rd game in the last 4 days and 6th in the last 9.
LA has been trending in the wrong direction of late, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7. It doesn't figure to get much better going forward, as the Lakers continue to be without starting point guard D'Angelo Russell. They also figure to be without Nick Young, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. It also wouldn't come as a surprise if they decided to sit out Julius Randle in a back-to-back scenario, as he just returned from a knee injury.
These two teams recently played in Los Angeles and the Bulls won 118-110, which I think is a good sign of what's to come here. Keep in mind Chicago won by 8 playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, which was also their 4th straight on the road and 3rd in a 4 day stretch. With the Lakers injuries and the Bulls strong play at home (4-1), this should get ugly in a hurry. Take Chicago!
|11-30-16||Washington +8.5 v. TCU||71-86||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington +
Really like the value and spot here with Washington as a near double-digit road dog against TCU. These two teams just played each other this past Saturday in Las Vegas and the Horned Frogs won that contest 93-80. That result is clearly playing into this line, as TCU was a mere 1.5-point favorite on the neutral setting. Now they are laying 7-points more at home and I don't think it's justified. In fact, I think the Huskies have a great shot at winning this game outright.
While the Horned Frogs won by 13, it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Washington was only down 2-points with less than 13 minutes to play. Things took a turn for the worse down the stretch run, as Huskies leading scorer Markelle Fultz (23.0 ppg) fouled out with 7 minutes left to play. At the time of fouling out, Fultz had already scored 27 points, going 8 of 13 from the field and 10 of 12 from the free throw line. It's also worth pointing out that the Horned Frogs got off to a great start in that game, jumping out to a 19-4 lead, which is not something they are likely to replicate, even with this meeting at home.
Washington is 25-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent by 10 or more under current head coach Lorenzo Romar. We also find a great system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 6 or more consecutive wins and are playing their 3rd game in a week are just 9-31 (22%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Washington!
|11-29-16||Lakers v. Pelicans -5||88-105||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -
Big revenge spot for the Pelicans and I expect them to deliver with a blowout win at home against the Lakers. New Orleans hosted the Lakers back on 11/12 and were embarrassed in a 99-126 defeat. One thing to keep in mind with that defeat is Pelicans star Anthony Davis missed a key portion of that game. With the Lakers up just 63-62 in the 3rd quarter, Davis was sidelined with a back injury. LA immediately went on a 14-0 run and never looked back.
Since that loss the Pelicans have gone 5-3 with a perfect 4-0 mark at home. The return of point guard Jrue Holiday has this team playing like the playoff contender we expected. This is a statement game for New Orleans and while the Lakers are playing well, most of their success has come at home (3-5 away). LA simply doesn't play any defense on the road, as they come in giving up 113.0 ppg away from home. That's a big problem here, as the Pelicans are scoring 110.7 ppg at home. Take New Orleans!
|11-29-16||Pistons v. Hornets -3||112-89||Loss||-115||8 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hornets -
I like the value here with Charlotte laying a small number at home against the Pistons. We are getting a shorter line than we normally would, due to the Hornets playing on no rest after playing last night in Memphis. The key here is Charlotte cruised to a win, beating the Grizzlies 104-85 and were able to avoid playing their stars big minutes. The Hornets have now won 2 straight and I see now reason for a letdown here, as they had gone just 2-6 in their previous 8.
Detroit comes in off a 88-106 loss at Oklahoma City as a mere 4.5-point dog, as the Pistons road woes continued. They are now just 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS on the highway this season and their struggles away from home can be pinpointed to their defense. Detroit is allowing just 97.1 ppg on the season, but are giving up a staggering 105.0 ppg on the road. Charlotte doesn't get the credit for being a great offensive team, but they can light up the scoreboard. The Hornets are averaging 106.1 ppg at home and 105.7 ppg overall.
Charlotte has also been a great team to back off a blowout win, as the Hornets are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after a win by 15 or more points. Take Charlotte!
|11-29-16||Davidson -3.5 v. Mercer||Top||78-57||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Davidson -
I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Bears. Davidson is 4-1 and have really responded well to their ugly early season loss to Clemson. The Wildcats followed up that loss with a 70-55 win over Missouri, 68-60 win against Arizona State and 79-57 blowout win at home against Charlotte. Mercer is 4-2 and have lost both games against respectable opponents, losing 54-76 to Florida and 63-65 to Akron.
The Bears are simply outclassed in this one. Davidson is just starting to play up to their potential. Keep in mind this is a team that returned 4 starters from a team that went 20-13 last year and closed out the season 8-3 over their last 11 games. Doing so despite some key injuries and struggles defensively (78.1 ppg, 304th). The Wildcats will have the two best players on the floor in senior guard Jack Gibbs (21.0 ppg) and junior forward Peyton Aldridge (19.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg).
Davidson's defense has been much better so far this season, allowing just 68.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. On top of that, Mercer isn't a great offensive team, averaging just 68.7 ppg. It's also worth pointing out that the Bears live and die by the 3-point shot, averaging 22 attempts a game. That plays into the strength of the Wildcats defense, which is only giving up 30.8% shooting from long-distance and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against teams who average 21 or more 3-point shots a game. Take Davidson!
|11-28-16||Wake Forest v. Northwestern -3.5||58-65||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Northwestern -
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a small home favorite against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has the better overall record at 5-1, but their 5 wins have all come against sub-par competition. Their only game against a respectable opponent was Villanova and they lost 77-96.
Northwestern has the worse record at 4-2, but have been the more impressive team early on. The Wildcats lost by just 2-points on the road (68-70) to a very good Butler team and had another heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame (66-70) on a neutral site. Sandwiched between those two defeats was a dominant 77-58 win over Texas as a 4.5-point favorite.
Wake Forest is a program headed in the right direction under head coach Danny Manning, but they still got a ways to go. Keep in mind they were just 11-20 last year and lost their best player in Devin Thomas. The Deacons were just 3-9 in road games last year and I expect those road woes to continue this season. Take Northwestern!
|11-28-16||Jazz -2.5 v. Wolves||112-103||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Jazz -
I like the value here with Utah as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. The Jazz have bounced back from their 4-game mini slump with back-to-back blowout wins over the Nuggets (108-83) and Hawks (95-68). As you can see, the defense was exceptional in both of those games and I look for them to keep it going on that side of the ball against Minnesota team that has struggled offensively of late. The Timberwolves scored 102 points in their last game against the Warriors, but prior to that had failed to reach the 100-pt mark in 4 straight.
If the Jazz can keep Minnesota's offense in check, they should have no problem here winning and doing so without much problem. The Timberwolves are giving up 103.5 ppg and opponents are shooting 47% against them. Another key here is that Minnesota isn't a great 3-point shooting team and that's only going to make it that much harder for them to score, as the Jazz have an elite interior defense anchored by big man Rudy Gobert.
Utah also has a nice scheduling advantage here. They will be playing with a full 2-days of rest. While Minnesota was off yesterday, they will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Jazz are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 against a team with a losing record and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite. Take Utah!
|11-28-16||Thunder v. Knicks OVER 213||112-103||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Knicks OVER
These two should have no problem eclipsing the total in this one. Oklahoma City comes in having scored 100+ points in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 11 overall. It's no secret that the Thunder go as Russell Westbrook goes and this is an ideal matchup for him, as Derrick Rose is not a defensive minded player and will get exposed whenever the two are matched up. The Knicks also don't have anyone else they can go to to keep Westbrook in check.
Westbrook on full go will have the Thunder playing at a fast pace here and force the Knicks to play up to their tempo. The key here is that New York is clicking offensively right now. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 6 straight games and have allowed 100+ in 5 of those. It's also worth noting that the defensive intensity doesn't figure to be there for either side in a non-conference game with both sides playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.
OVER is 5-1 in OKC's last 6 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their previous game. OVER is also 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 when facing a team that scored 100+ points in their last game and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|11-27-16||Hawks -4 v. Lakers||94-109||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night ATS Bailtout on Hawks -
Atlanta is showing some decent value here as a relatively small road favorite against the Lakers. The Hawks will be extremely motivated for this matchup, as they were embarrassed last time out at Utah, losing 68-95, giving them 4 losses in their last 5 games. With a road game against the Warriors on deck, there's a little extra emphasis on getting a win here.
The Lakers have been a pleasant surprise early on, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and it's going to be tough to regain that early form with one of their most important pieces sidelined in DeAngelo Russell, who is right there with Lou Williams for the team lead in scoring at 16.1 ppg. He also leads the team in assists at 4.8 apg. There's also a chance they will be without talented forward Julius Randle, who has missed the last 2 and wasn't able to complete practice on Saturday.
We also find a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-10 (78%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996 with a perfect 10-0 ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta!
|11-27-16||Kings -4.5 v. Nets||122-105||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Kings -
I like the value we are getting with the Kings laying a relatively small number here on the road against the Nets. Brooklyn was a covering machine to start the season, but playing hard and losing is only fun for so long. The Nets have completely fell off of late, as they come in riding a 6-game losing streak. All 6 losses have come by at least 7 points and 5 of those by at least 18.
I believe we are simply getting value here due to the fact that the Kings are just 6-10 overall. The key here is Sacramento has some talent to work with and have been playing much better of late with 2 wins in their last 3 games, beating both the Raptors and Thunder at home. This is a big road trip for the Kings and they are going to want to get it started off with a victory and I don't see the Nets putting up much of a fight here.
Brooklyn is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off 3 straight losses by 10 or more points. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their lat 5 off a SU loss. Take Sacramento!
|11-27-16||Ball State v. Valparaiso -9||73-79||Loss||-112||4 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Valparaiso -
I like the value here with Valparaiso laying less than 10 at home against the Cardinals. The Crusaders come in at 5-1 with their only loss being a true road game at Oregon, who is one of the elite teams in the country. They bounced back from that defeat with a 68-60 win over Alabama as a 3.5-point dog and 92-89 upset of BYU as a 6.5-point dog.
Ball State is simply not on the same level as Valparaiso and that's evident by their performance against a couple of common opponents. While the Crusaders beat the Crimson Tide by 8, the Cardinals lost by 18 at Alabama. Valpo also has a 78-58 blowout win over Coppin State, while Ball State barely won 78-77 over Coppin State.
Crusaders are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after winning 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog. Take Valparaiso!
|11-27-16||New Mexico +4.5 v. Dayton||57-64||Loss||-105||3 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Smash on New Mexico +
I really like the value we are getting here with the Lobos as a 4.5-point dog against the Flyers. New Mexico is loaded this year with 4 starters back including one of the best the MWC has to offer in Elijah Brown. They are a legit threat to win the MWC and I like their chances of winning outright here against Dayton.
The Flyers are getting a lot of love coming into the season, but are just 3-2 and recently lost to a very mediocre Nebraska team. New Mexico is the much better offensive team, as they come in 39th in scoring at 85.0 ppg. Dayton on the other hand is T-105th at 78.4 ppg The Lobos are also the better rebounding team and do a better job of sharing the basketball.
Dayton is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 after a SU win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New Mexico!
|11-26-16||Knicks v. Hornets -6||Top||102-107||Loss||-115||9 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets -
This is all about the situation and it heavily favors the Hornets. These two teams played last night in New York, with the Knicks winning 113-111 in overtime. Now they head to Charlotte for a rematch and the Hornets are clearly going to be the more motivated team after losing yesterday.
The Knicks come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, but all 5 of those wins came at home. The lone loss was on the road to a bad Wizards team by 7-points. New York has really struggled to play well away from home, as they are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS on the highway this season. I know the Hornets comes in having lost 4 straight, but this is a much better team than their recent form would suggest. This is a huge statement game for the Hornets and I expect them to deliver with a double-digit win. Take Charlotte -6!
|11-26-16||Iowa -3 v. Memphis||92-100||Loss||-105||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS No Brainer on Iowa -
The Hawkeyes were outclassed in yesterday's 41-74 loss to Virginia and as a result are undervalued here against Memphis, who lost to Providence by 9 and the Friars are way down from last year's squad that featured the likes of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Memphis might have the better record at 4-1, but that's only because they played 4 cupcake games to start the season. Iowa is 3-2, but both losses are against teams I believe will be tournament bound in Seton Hall and Virginia.
Note that these two teams have already played two common opponents in the early going and it's pretty clear the Hawkeyes are the better team. Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84, while Memphis only beat them by a final of 99-86. Iowa defeated UTRGV 95-67, while Memphis won by a final of 94-75. This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes and a big bounce back spot after the embarrassing loss to Virginia. Take Iowa!
|11-25-16||Hornets v. Knicks OVER 209.5||111-113||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Hornets/Knicks OVER
New York has got something going of late, as they come in having won 4 of their last 5. A big part of that is their offense is clicking. The Knicks have scored at least 104 points in 5 straight games and have connected on 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3. They should be able to keep it going here against a Hornets team that has lost their edge on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing 109.8 ppg over their last 5 games and twice during this stretch have allowed 119 or more.
The key here is the Hornets should have no problem keeping up with the Knicks on the offensive side of the ball. Charlotte comes in averaging 105.4 ppg on the season and have hit 114 or more in 3 of their last 5. The only two times they have failed to score at least 100 points in their last 9 games were against the Cavs and Grizzlies. New York doesn't figure to be able to add their name to the list, as they enter ranked 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and are allowing 105.9 ppg.
I also think there's some extra factors favoring a high-scoring game. I don't see the intensity being their on defense after the holiday break yesterday. On top of that, these two teams will face off again tomorrow in Charlotte. OVER is 10-3-2 in the last 15 meetings overall and a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Take the OVER!
|11-25-16||Elon v. Northern Illinois -3||85-80||Loss||-105||4 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Blowout on Northern Illinois -
We are getting some great value here on the Huskies at home against Elon. Northern Illinois fallowed up a loss at CS-Northridge with a shocking 64-68 defeat at home to Cal-Poly-SLO on Wednesday as a 10-point favorite. I expect an all out effort here from the Huskies and it's not like this team doesn't have some talent. Keep in mind they beat a talented Indiana State team at home earlier this season, who just nearly upset Iowa State in their last game.
This is a Northern Illinois team that returned 3 players who averaged double-figures in scoring, plus got back their leading scorer from 2013-14 in Dontel Highsmith, who missed the lat two years. Elon comes in at 3-1, but have played a favorable schedule to start, as they have been favored in all 3 games with a line posted. The Fighting Phoenix aren't expected to be a factor in the CAA, as most have them picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.
Even with the loss last time out, the Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-23-16||Thunder v. Kings OVER 211.5||101-116||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night Total Annihilator on Thunder/Kings OVER
I look for the Kings and Thunder to cruise past this total tonight. Oklahoma City has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games and that trend doesn't figure to come to an end with the Thunder playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. Especially against a Kings team that is clicking offensively right now. Sacramento comes in averaging 110.5 ppg over their last 4 games.
It's not just the Kings that will be filling up the stat sheet, Oklahoma City has scored 100+ in 7 of their last 8 games and come in averaging 112.3 ppg over their last 4. They shouldn't have any problem keeping the offense going, as Sacramento ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 108.4 points per 100 possessions.
The OVER is 12-2 in OKC's last 14 road games against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 100+ points last time out. We also have a strong system in play, as the OVER is 63-28 (69%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more, where the road team is coming in off a loss by 3-points or less and playing an opponent that has scored 100+ points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER!
|11-23-16||Wisconsin v. North Carolina -4.5||Top||56-71||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
5* Wisconsin/N Carolina NCAAB No Limit Top Play on North Carolina -
I think this is a great spot to go against the Badgers, who come in off an impressive 73-57 win over Georgetown as a mere 5-point favorite. Not to take anything away from that win, but the Hoyas have been extremely inconsistent to start the year and certainly didn't look all that interested in playing that game. Wisconsin had a 50 to 21 edge in rebounds with a 20-1 edge on the offensive boards. That right there shows the lack of effort by Georgetown.
Either way, the Badgers aren't going to have that same luxury of dominating the board against the Tar Heels. North Carolina comes in averaging 48.3 rebounds/game and are averaging a +18 rebound margin on the season. With the extra possessions, that's really going to make it tough for the Badgers to keep pace offensively with this explosive Tar Heels offense that comes in averaging 96.5 ppg. It's not just the offensive side of the ball where UNC is playing well, they are only giving up 67.2 ppg, which is about 10 ppg fewer than what their opposition is averaging.
I see this as a similar matchup to Wisconsin's earlier 67-79 loss at Creighton, expect the Tar Heels are a much better team than Creighton. UNC clearly means business in this tournament, as they absolutely dominated Oklahoma State 107-75 last night as a mere 9-point favorite. Take North Carolina!
|11-23-16||Grizzlies -5 v. 76ers||104-99||Push||0||9 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Grizzlies -
The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in having won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The key here is the 76ers have been able to win a few games against some bad teams. Their 3 wins are against the Wizards, Suns and Heat, who all currently sit with a mere 4-wins on the season.
Memphis might not be viewed as a top team right now, but the Grizzlies are currently sitting 4th in the west and come in playing their best basketball of the season. Memphis is riding a 5-game winning streak and 4 of the 5 wins have come on the road. They are getting it done with a dominant defensive effort, as they are allowing just 85.6 ppg over their last 5. The offense can be limited at time, but the 76ers are team they can exploit. Philadelphia has allowed 100+ points in 13 of their 14 games this season.
Last time out the Grizzlies won 105-90 as a 5.5-point dog at Charlotte. That sets them up in a very profitable system, as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 off an upset win by 15 or more points as a road dog. The Grizzlies are also team that has been a strong bet against bad teams, as they are 30-18 ATS in their last 48 against a team with a losing record. Take Memphis!
|11-22-16||Pelicans v. Hawks -8||112-94||Loss||-105||11 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Smash on Hawks -
Atlanta is primed for strong showing at home, as they will be highly motivated off back-to-back road losses to the Hornets and Knicks. The Hawks haven't had much problem taking care of business at home, where they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS on the season. Atlanta is outscoring opponents on their home floor by an average of 10.0 ppg (112.4-102.4).
New Orleans has won two straight and are playing better since Jrue Holiday returned to action, but there's just not enough talent on this roster to take this team seriously. Especially on the road, where the Pelicans are just 1-5 to start the season. Last time on the highway, New Orleans lost by 7-points at Orlando and the Magic are no where close in terms of talent as the Hawks.
It's also worth pointing out that the Pelicans have been a great team to fade when playing on the road off a game where they covered the spread, as they are just 4-13 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Western Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Atlanta!
|11-22-16||Georgia Southern v. Akron -9.5||Top||67-75||Loss||-117||10 h 10 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Akron -
This is a great spot to back the Zips at home, as they come in off a 88-41 blowout win over Radford, where they shot 56.6% from the field and connected on 13 3-pointers. When Akron gets going from the outside, they are difficult team to contain. The Zips were 2nd in the country a year ago with an average of 11.7 3-pointers made per game. Adding to this, is the fact that Akron is a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots, winning in this spot by an average of 10.0 ppg.
This isn't just a team that can beat you from the outside, Akron also returns 1st All-MAC center Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 13.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg, despite only starting 9 games. This Zips team is without question the class of the MAC conference and would have been in the NCAA Tournament a year ago had they not lost the title game of the MAC Tournament.
Georgia Southern is a solid team, but are just 1-2 to start the year, including an ugly 13-point loss last time out at Mercer. They have really struggled offensively in their two true road games, as they are shooting just 36.9% from the field away from home. The defense has also been an issue on the highway, as they are giving up 80.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Akron!
|11-21-16||Heat -4.5 v. 76ers||94-101||Loss||-105||9 h 18 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Heat -
I like the value here with Miami as a small road favorite against the 76ers. The Heat come in having won 2 straight, including a 3-point win at Washington last time out as a 4.5-point dog. This is a better team than their 4-8 record would suggest, as they are only getting outscored by 0.4 ppg.
Philadelphia comes in off an upset win at home over the Suns, which I think is helping keep this line lower than it should be. The 76ers haven't won back-to-back games this season and are just 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Miami on the other hand is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games when playing a team that's won less than 40% of their home games.
We also find a great system in play favoring a fade of the 76ers. Home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103 or more ppg against an opponent that scored 110+ points in their previous game are just 14-40 (26%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami!
|11-21-16||Coppin State v. Ball State -19||77-79||Loss||-105||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS No Brainer on Ball St -
I have no problem laying a big number on the Cardinals against a horrible Coppin State team that has yet to register a win, as they are 0-5. Not a great spot for Coppin State, who has played all 5 of their games to this point on the road. They haven't exactly been competitive either, losing by 20 to Valpo, 30 to Coastal Carolina, 37 to BYU and 43 to Utah State.
Ball State opened with a nice 21-point win at St. Louis as a mere 3.5-point favorite, but have dropped their last 2. That's a good thing here, as we should get a max effort from the Cardinals in this one, which should be all it takes to win here by 20+ points. Take Ball State!
|11-18-16||Spurs v. Lakers OVER 208||116-107||Win||100||25 h 50 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Lakers OVER
I'm expecting a high-scoring game Friday night when the Lakers host the Spurs on ESPN. This LA team has been a pleasant surprise early on this season and they are playing an exciting brand of basketball, as new head coach Luke Walton has brought over a similar type of offense to the Warriors. The Lakers will jack up 3's as much as they can and will be looking to push the pace. I believe they can dictate the tempo here playing on 2 days of rest.
San Antonio likes to play at a little slower pace, but will have no problem picking up the tempo here. The Spurs should be able to put up a big number here against a Lakers defense that is giving up north of 108 ppg. San Antonio is a well-oiled machine offensively and are actually scoring better on the road than they are at home. The Spurs are averaging just 101.9 ppg on the season, but are scoring 108.8 ppg on the road. Lakers are also a much better offensive team at home, as they are putting up 115.6 ppg at home compared to their season average of 110.0 ppg.
OVER is 6-2 in the Spurs last 8 road games and 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 on the road. OVER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the OVER!
|11-18-16||Georgia State v. Purdue -18||Top||56-64||Loss||-106||21 h 58 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit Vegas Top Play on Purdue -
I really like the Boilermaker team and feel like this is a great spot to back them, as we can bank on a big effort here after losing at home last time out in a heartbreaker to Villanova. That should be all that's need to take down Georgia State by 20+ points at home. The Panthers are a scrappy team, but lost some key pieces from last year and are simply outclassed here against the Boilermakers.
They lost last time out at Auburn by 18 and that's a young Tigers team. Purdue is light years ahead of Auburn and I believe their size inside is going to make life miserable for Georgia State. The Panthers aren't a great 3-point shooting team and that's one area where you have to be strong, if you want to attack Purdue's defense.
Georgia State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the month of November under head coach Ron Hunter, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games when listed as an underdog and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. Purdue is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 after playing their previous game at home. Take Purdue!
|11-17-16||Michigan v. Marquette -1||Top||79-61||Loss||-105||12 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Marquette -
I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a small favorite against the Wolverines. I really like this Marquette team, who showed big time improvement from year one to year two under head coach Steve Wojciechowski. In his first year on the job the Golden Eagles went just 13-19. Last year they improved to 20-13, but just missed out on the NCAA Tournament. Something that certainly didn't sit well after they jumped out to a 12-4 record in their first 16 games, as they went just 8-9 to close out the year.
While the Eagles lost a big piece in Henry Ellenson, they returned 4 starters from last year and added in talented freshman sharp shooter Sam Hauser and a big scoring threat on the wing in USC transfer Katin Reinhardt. They have certainly looked like a legit contender to start out, crushing Vanderbilt 95-71 as a mere 2-point favorite and rolling over Howard 81-49 as a 26 point favorite.
Michigan returns Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin, but I have questions about the rest of the roster. They haven't got off to the best start, beating the same Howard team the Eagles crushed by a final of just 76-58. They also only beat IUPUI 77-65 in a game where they favored by 17.5-points. Poor shooting has been a big problem, as they shot just 42.3% against Howard and 45% against IUPUI. I also have concerns about their defense. They let Howard shoot 46.5% from the field. In comparison, the Golden Eagles held Howard to just 30.4%. Take Marquette!
|11-17-16||Blazers +4 v. Rockets||109-126||Loss||-100||10 h 17 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Blazers +
I like the value here with Portland as a road dog against the Rockets on Thursday. The Blazers played as poorly as they have all season in Tuesday's 88-113 home loss to the Bulls. More than anything, they didn't bring the kind off effort needed to win. I expect a completely different Portland team to take the floor tonight against Houston.
As for the Rockets, this is not a good spot for them. They just played last night in a high-paced game on the road against the Thunder. Houston doesn't have a lot of depth and 4 of the 5 starters played 33+ minutes, with Harden, Gordon and Ariza all logging at least 37 minutes. I just don't see the Rockets having the energy to keep pace with a highly motivated Blazers team in this one.
Portland is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, while the Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Portland!
|11-16-16||Rockets v. Thunder OVER 217||Top||103-105||Loss||-102||10 h 5 m||Show|
5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Thunder OVER
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this high total. These are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Houston comes in averaging 107.8 ppg, while Oklahoma City isn't too far behind at 108.9 ppg. The Thunder being at home only adds more value here, as OKC's scoring average jumps to 108.9 ppg at home and the Rockets are averaging 110.0 ppg on the road.
It's also important to note that while both teams don't play at a frantic pace, they both like to get up and down the floor. I believe the biggest factor here is the matchup at point guard. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are putting up video game type numbers to start the season. Harden comes in averaging 30.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg and 12.6 apg. Westbrook is right there with him at 32.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 9.9 apg. Houston has the more weapons overall on offense, but the Rockets don't play much defense, especially Harden.
We also find a strong system in play. The OVER is 51-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off a home win by 10 or more points (Houston) in a game involving two marginal winning teams (Win % at 51% to 60%). Take the OVER!
|11-16-16||Cavs v. Pacers +5||93-103||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +
I really like the value we are getting here with the Pacers catching a decent number at home against the Cavaliers. I know Cleveland comes into this game at 9-1, but this is not a good spot for the defending champs. The Cavs just played last night at home against the Raptors, escaping with a 121-117 win. That's not going to be an easy game to bounce back from. With J.R. Smith sidelined, James, Love and Irving all had to log big minutes. Love and Irving both played 35 minutes and James was out their for 38 minutes.
This is just the second time this season the Cavs have had to play a back-to-back set. It just so happens the first time also came after a game against the Raptors. They had to host the Magic the next night and ended up only winning 105-99 as an 11-point favorite. Keep in mind it's even harder to in the second game of a back-to-back when it's on the road. This is also Cleveland's 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in the last 6 days.
Indiana has got off to a disappointing 5-6 start, but most of their struggles have come on the road. The Pacers are 5-1 at home with the only loss coming to the Celtics in the second game of a back-to-back set. Indiana is fresh for this one, as it's just their 2nd game in 4 days. I expect an all out effort here from Indiana against Cleveland and I just don't see the Cavs having the energy needed to turn this into a blowout. I also think there's a very good chance the Pacers win this game outright. Take Indiana!
|11-15-16||Hornets -2 v. Wolves||Top||115-108||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hornets -
We are getting a great price here on Charlotte as a small road favorite against the Timberwolves. This Hornets team has been playing extremely well to start the season. They are T-5th in scoring differential at 5.5 ppg. They are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against the Celtics, Raptors and Cavaliers. The key here is the public doesn't view them as an elite team and we are catching a great number here due to them losing their last two.
It also helps that Minnesota is fresh off a 125-99 blowout win at home over the Lakers. The Timberwolves were a popular pick to surprise this season, but that hasn't been the case, as they are just 3-6 through 9 games. I believe the difference here is going to be defense, as both teams are strong offensively. Charlotte ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves come in at 24th. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets defensive has really come to life on the road, as they are allowing just 95.5 ppg away from home. On top of that, we should get a big time effort here, as they try to avoid a third straight loss.
The Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Charlotte!
|11-15-16||Maryland v. Georgetown -5.5||76-75||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Georgetown -
This might seem like a lot of points for the Hoyas to be laying, but I look for them to have no problem disposing of the Terrapins at home. This is no where close to the Maryland team from last year that went 27-9. The Terps lost 4 starters, who all averaged double-figures. The reason they are getting some love, is they brought back talented point guard Melo Trimble. While he's a good player, he's not going to be as effective without all that talent around him. That was evident in their opener at home against American, which they squeaked out 62-56. Melo put up 22-points, but got little help and Maryland as a team shot just 38.5% from the field.
As for the Hoyas, they did lose their best player from last year in Smith-Rivera, but that's the only significant loss Georgetown suffered. They have 4 starters back and have added in some nice pieces, including talented a couple of quality transfers. One of those was Robert Morris' Rodney Pryor, who I think will take over the role of Smith-Rivera. He certainly looked the part in their 105-60 blowout win to open the season, scoring 32 points on 13 of 16 shooting (6 of 8 3pt).
I think Maryland is really going to struggle here on the road against a physical Hoyas team that can make life miserable for opposing teams. They are going to focus their attention on Trimble and force the others to beat them and I don't believe they can. Take Georgetown!
|11-14-16||Thunder v. Pistons -3||88-104||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -
The Thunder continue to get a lot of love from the public. Despite losing 3 straight, including a outright loss at home to the Magic yesterday as a 9.5-point favorite, the public is once again backing OKC at a near 60% clip as a small road dog against the Pistons. I believe it's created some great value here on Detroit and other sharps agree, as this line has jumped 2 points since it opened with the Pistons at -1.
While the Thunder will certainly want to win here after losing their last 3, this is horrible spot to bounce back. OKC is not only playing on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this is their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. So much of what this team does relies on Westbrook and he has to be running on fumes here, as he has played 39, 35 and 38 minutes in the Thunder's last 3 games.
I believe the key here will be Detroit's energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Pistons rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up just 85.0 ppg at home, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Note that all 4 wins at home have come by double-digits. OKC comes in averaging a respectable 104.6 ppg, but most of their scoring has come at home, as they are only averaging 94.7 ppg in their 3 road games this season. Take Detroit!
|11-14-16||Villanova v. Purdue +2||79-76||Loss||-105||7 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Villanova/Purdue ATS No Brainer on Purdue +
I think we are getting some exceptional value with the Boilermakers as a home dog against the Wildcats. Villanova is simply getting too much respect early after winning it all last year. I'm not saying they aren't going to be a great team this year, but they did lose two key pieces in Ryan Arcidiacono and big man Daniel Ochefu.
The key here is this Purdue team is every bit as talented as the Wildcats, but aren't getting the same kind of love coming into the season after getting knocked out in the first round of last year's NCAA Tournament by Arkansas-Little Rock. The Boilermakers are loaded with talent and it's centered around one of the best frontcourts in the country. They have 7-2 junior center Isaac Haas and a Big 10 Player of the Year candidate at power forward in Caleb Swanigan. These two get a lot of love, but they also have a talented junior small forward in Vincent Edwards. These three combined for 64 points and 37 rebounds in the opener, led by Sanigan's 23 points and 20 rebounds.
I look that size to prove to be a big problem for the Wildcats, as they don't have the size to matchup defensively and it's going to limit their second chance opportunities on offense. It's also worth pointing out that the Boilermakers were 17-1 on their home floor last year. Take Purdue!
|11-12-16||Clippers v. Wolves +4||119-105||Loss||-105||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Wolves +
I know most are going to see this is a favorable line to back the Clippers, but I think the value here is with Minnesota as a home dog. This is a huge letdown spot for Los Angeles, after last night's hard fought 110-108 win at OKC, which they desperately wanted after losing to the Thunder at home earlier in the season. Griffin, Jordan and Paul all logged at least 33 minutes last night and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Rivers decided to rest at least a couple of his stars tonight. Not only is this the second game of a back-to-back set, but it's LA's 3rd in the last 4 nights.
Minnesota is a young team that is struggling to close out games, but they have also played 5 of their first 7 on the road. They were extremely competitive in their 2 home games and I look for an all out effort here. Keep in mind that while LAC is in a horrible scheduling spot, the Timberwolves come into this one off a full 2 days of rest.
We also find a strong system in play backing the Timberwolves in this one. Underdogs who have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 36-10 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Minnesota!
|11-11-16||Clippers -4.5 v. Thunder||Top||110-108||Loss||-115||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Clippers -
It's amazing how little attention the Clippers are getting right now. Los Angeles is 7-1 and getting it done on both sides of the floor. The Clippers are averaging 105.1 ppg, while allowing just 88.2 ppg. It's the way they are playing defensively that has impressed me, they are #1 in defensive efficiency, allowing just 89.3 ppg per opponents 100 possessions. The next best team is Charlotte at 95.4. When you play that hard on defense, it's a lot easier to win on the road and the Clippers are 3-0 away from home, securing wins at Portland, Memphis and San Antonio, all difficult places to play.
The big key here for me is the lone loss for LA came at home against Oklahoma City, so there's some extra motivation for the Clippers in this one. The first meeting saw the Thunder win 85-83, so LA's defense was on point, but the offense just wasn't there. The Clippers shot just 39.1% from the field, well below their season average of 45%. I look for another strong effort here on the defensive side of the ball, with the offense doing a lot more to win here by 5+ points.
Clippers are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss to an oppponent and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Los Angeles!
|11-11-16||Michigan State v. Arizona +1.5||63-65||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Opening Night ATS Annihilator on Arizona +
I really like the value we are getting here with the Wildcats as a dog against the Spartans in Hawaii. Michigan State lost a lot from last year, including one of the best players in the country in Denzel Valentin, who led the team in scoring and assists and was second in rebounding. They also lost their next two top scorers in Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello, as well as big man Deyonta Davis.
Tom Izzo has reloaded with some talented young freshman, but his teams aren't exactly built to dominate in November. Izzo does a better job of anyone at molding his team as the season progresses to get them playing their best in March when it matters the most.
Arizona also lost a lot from last year, including 4 seniors, but none of them were NBA draft picks. Sean Miller recruits as well as anyone and I look for this Wildcats team to be much better than they were a year ago. I look for their athleticism and length to really give the Spartans trouble here, as Michigan State doesn't have a ton of size down low. Take Arizona.
|11-10-16||Lakers v. Kings -5||Top||101-91||Loss||-115||12 h 14 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings -
I like the value we are getting here with Sacramento as a small home favorite against the Lakers. I'll admit that LA has been better than expected in the early going, but this is still a young team that is learning how to win on the road. They are just 1-3 away from the Staples Center and the lone win came against the Hawks, where they shot lights out, hitting 53.9% from the field.
This will be just the 4th home game for the Kings on the season. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming in a hard fought game against the Spurs. Last time out they put away the Pelicans 102-94 as a 6.5-point favorite. I believe the key here is the Lakers won't have an answer for DeMarcus Cousins inside. He averaged 27 ppg and 11.3 rpg in the 4 games against LA last year. I also think it's worth pointing out the Kings just got back starting point guard Darren Collison last time out against New Orleans, so this team is even better than what they have shown so far.
Lakers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento!
|11-09-16||Bulls +3.5 v. Hawks||107-115||Loss||-105||10 h 9 m||Show|
4* Situational Undervalued Underdog on Bulls +
I'll really been impressed with Chicago in the early portion of the season, as they have really adjusted well to a major roster overhaul. However, this is more of a play against the Hawks, who are in a brutal spot here after last night's huge win over the Cavaliers in Cleveland. You could see how much that game meant to Atlanta by how hard they played and the emotion they showed during the contest.
That puts them in line for a big letdown here at home against the Bulls. Keep in mind that Atlanta essentially used a 7-man rotation last night. The only starter who didn't play more than 30 minutes was Howard. Keep in mind this is the second back-to-back set the Hawks have had to play in the last 6 six. Chicago on the other hand has played just once in the last 3 days and that was a stress free 32-point win at home against the Magic. I just don't see Atlanta being able to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Take Chicago!
|11-09-16||Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 194||Top||98-104||Loss||-105||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER
I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.
The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.
It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!
|11-08-16||Suns +7.5 v. Blazers||Top||121-124||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Suns +
Phoenix is showing some great value here as a big road dog against the Blazers. Phoenix is just 2-5, but are playing much better of late, taking 2 of their last 3 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Coming in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, I look for a big bounce back performance from the Suns here. It's a spot they have dominated in under head coach Earl Watson, as they are 13-3 ATS under Watson off a loss by 10 or more.
This is also a tough spot for the Blazers. Portland just finished up a 3-game road trip and will be home for just one game before heading to Los Angeles to face the Clippers tomorrow. A game they are going to have a tough time not looking ahead to, as they haven't forgot about a ugly 12-point home loss to the Clippers earlier this season.
Phoenix has had the Blazers number of late, as they are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Underdog in this series is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14. A big part of that is the Suns matchup well with Portland, as the Blazers are a very guard-oriented team. Phoenix has 3 really good guards of their own in Bledsoe, Knight and Boooker. Keep in mind Lillard is coming in a bit banged up, as he's dealing with nagging injuries to both his ankle and thumb. Take Phoenix!
|11-08-16||Wolves -4 v. Nets||110-119||Loss||-105||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wolves -
Minnesota comes into this game at 1-4 SU and ATS and fresh off a 20-point loss at Oklahoma City, yet are laying points on the road against a Nets team that has gone 5-1 ATS to start the season. I think it's for good reason, as this Timberwolves team is on the verge of breaking out. They have played much better than their record would indicate. They have blown double-digit leads in 3 of their 4 losses.
One of the big reasons that Brooklyn is off to such a strong start against the number, is this team is playing extremely hard and opposing teams just aren't giving them the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here with Minnesota, as they have to feel like this is a must-win game.
The Timberwolves will once again be without starting point guard Ricky Rubio, but this is a good matchup here, as the Nets are minuts their top two point guards in Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez. They will once again have to send out rookie Isaiah Whitehead at the point. Look for Minnesota rookie point guard Kris Dunn to have a breakout performance here in what should be a blowout win for the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!
|11-07-16||Jazz v. 76ers +7.5||109-84||Loss||-105||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +
Philadelphia is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Jazz. While the 76ers are 0-5, they have been competitive in a number of their games, especially at home. They only lost by 6 at home to OKC, by 2 at home to Orlando and most recently by just 1 to the Cavaliers. They likely are another year away from really getting things going in the right direction, but they are clearly better than they have been the last two years. I expect them to continue to play extremely hard at home, as they desperately want that first win of the season.
The key here is that this is a tough spot for the Jazz. Utah will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they just played in New York yesterday. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7 days. Utah did just get back Gordon Hayward, but are without both Boris Diaw and Alec Burks and starting point guard George Hill is questionable with a hand injury. Hill would be a big loss, as he's really started out strong, averaging 20.4 ppg and 5.0 apg.
The 76ers have been a great bet against the Western Conference, as they are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. They are also 35-19 ATS in their last 54 against teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game. Take Philadelphia!
|11-05-16||Rockets v. Hawks -2.5||97-112||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Hawks -
The perception here is that Atlanta isn't going to have the legs to keep up with the Rockets, as the Hawks will be playing on short rest, but I don't think that's going to be the case. This game has a special meaning for the Hawks, as free agent pickup Dwight Howard goes against his old team in Houston. I expect the Hawks to dig deep here and lay it all on the line for their new teammate, much like we saw Thursday with Durant and the Warriors going up against OKC and again last night with Rose and Noah returning to Chicago.
Let's also not overlook the fact that Atlanta has won 5 straight in the series over Houston, including a 12-point win the last time they hosted the Rockets. I also think we see an edge here with the Hawks after losing 2 straight. This is a much better team than people realize. They are T-2nd in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency. Houston isn't exactly in the best spot either, as this will be their 3rd straight on the road after two big games at Cleveland and New York. It's also their 5th road game in their first 6 overall.
Hawks are 50-28 (64%) ATS under Budenholzer when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 35-18 (66%) ATS in their last 53 when facing an up-tempo team (83 or more shots/game). Take Atlanta!
|11-04-16||Warriors v. Lakers +11||Top||97-117||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational No Limit Top Play on Lakers +
I really like the value here with the Lakers as a double-digit home dog. This is a massive letdown spot for the Warriors, who just played at home last night against the Thunder. A game they have had circled since the schedule was released, as it was Durant's first game against his old team after leaving OKC for Golden State in the offseason. You could see the emotion they invested in that game and it's going to be really hard for them to bring anywhere close to that intensity on the road against a Lakers team that isn't perceived to be any good.
The thing is, this Lakers team is better than they get credit for. They play really hard and have some nice young talent that can score the basketball. They also come in with some confidence, after closing out their 4-game road trip with a 123-116 win at Atlanta, who had previously been unbeaten.
We also find a great system in play going against the Warriors in this spot. Road favorites of 10 or more playing on back-to-back days are just 6-25 (19%) against the spread since 1996 in the 1st half the season. Keep in mind this is also Golden State's 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Los Angeles!
|11-04-16||Suns v. Pelicans -3||112-111||Loss||-105||9 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -
I like the value here with New Orleans as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are going to lay it all on the line in this one, as they search for their first win of the season after an 0-5 start. They have been painfully close the last two games, losing 113-117 at home to the Bucks and 83-89 at Memphis. I saw some great signs in their last game, with rookie Buddy Hield finally getting his shot going and Lance Stephenson contributing 21. The only thing that prevented them from winning was an off night from Anthony Davis, who shot just 3 of 13 for 10 points.
I also like the opponent here, as the Suns are just 1-4 and are coming off their first win at home against the Blazers. The Suns play fast and can put up some points, but are not very efficient. Phoenix is just 25th in offensive efficiency. They are also vulnerable on defense, as they come in allowing 112.6 ppg.
The Suns are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games after going over the total in their previous game and are losing here by an average score of 97.3 to 111.5 (-14.2 ppg). Phoenix is also just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a win by 6 points or less. Take New Orleans!
|11-03-16||Kings +1.5 v. Magic||Top||94-102||Loss||-103||8 h 27 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings +
I like the value here with Sacramento getting points against the Magic. The Kings come into this game at just 2-3, but I've been impressed with what I have seen out of this team. They were right there with the Spurs at home in a 94-102 loss, they fell apart late (outscored by 13 in 4th) in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta and last time out they lost in OT at Miami, where DeMarcus Cousins had fouled out in regulation. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated here and they are the more talented team in this one.
Orlando avoided an 0-4 start with a 103-101 win at Philadelphia, but they were very fortunate to get that win. The Magic trailed by 14 at the half and were down by as many as 18. Considering they were 0-3 going into that game and had no reason to overlook the 76ers, that's not a good sign, because Philadelphia is the worst team in the league right now.
Great system in play backing the Kings here. Teams off a road loss (Kings) with a line of +3 to -3 against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less (Magic) are 23-4 (85%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Sacramento!
|11-02-16||Blazers v. Suns +3.5||115-118||Win||100||12 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Suns +
I think this is the time to jump on the Suns as a home dog against the Blazers. Portland is in a brutal spot here, playing on no rest after laying it all on the line at home last night against the Warriors. Now they have to go on the road to face a Suns team that has started out 0-4 and coming in off a ugly 18-point loss to the Clippers. Given how early we are in the season, I just don't see Portland being all that interested in this one.
Phoenix on the other hand is going to lay everything they have into getting their first win of the season and I like the talent on this team. While they could be without Booker, there's also a decent chance he plays, as the injury that forced him to not play Monday isn't considered serious. Either way, I like the Suns to get the win at home in this spot.
Portland is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games off a loss by 10 ore more points. Take Phoenix!
|11-02-16||Bulls v. Celtics -3.5||Top||100-107||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Celtics -
I really like the value we are getting with Boston as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after their 3-0 start both SU and ATS, which includes a 105-99 win at home against the Celtics in their opener. The thing to keep in mind with that win over Boston, is the Celtics were playing on no rest. The Bulls blitzed them in the 1st quarter and they just were never able to recover, though they did come back and take the lead after falling behind by 15 points.
While I think Chicago is better than people thought coming in, I don't see them going on the road here and beating the Celtics, especially given they just played last week and beat them. Revenge isn't huge in the NBA, but it comes into play a lot more when teams play each other in a short period of time.
The Bulls are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing a game on the road, while the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Boston!
|11-02-16||Rockets v. Knicks -1||118-99||Loss||-100||9 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -
I really like the value here with the Knicks at basically a pick'em at home against the Rockets. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a loss last night, but I give the edge to New York. Houston just laid it all on the line against the defending champs in Cleveland and it was a draining game that saw 248 combined points scored. It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to bounce back and bring the energy needed to win on the road on no rest.
It's not just the back-to-back on the road for Houston either. This will be the Rockets 4th road game in their first 5 games to start the season. All of this coming in the span of 7 days.
The Knicks lost 89-102 at Detroit and only have themselves to blame after scoring a mere 10-points in the 4th quarter and just 34 in the 2nd half. I look for New York to come out inspired at home, where they are 1-0 on the season with a 111-104 win against the Grizzlies.
Houston is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half in 2 straight games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a cover in their last game. Take New York!
|11-01-16||Grizzlies v. Wolves -4.5||80-116||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -
I like the value we are getting here with Minnesota as a relatively small home dog against the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves have started out 0-2, despite building early leads in both losses. One of those was against Memphis in their season opener on the road. Minnesota had a 17-point lead in a 4-point loss. It was a similar story in their second game, losing by 3 at Sacramento after leading by as many as 18.
I look for the Timberwolves to once again get out to an early lead, expect this time they maintain the edge and secure a comfortable win. Keep in mind this will be Minnesota's home opener and given what's happened in the first two games, we know we are going to get a max effort here from the Timberwolves, who are poised for big things under new head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Memphis is 2-1, but both wins have come at home. In their lone road contest they fell 104-111 at New York as a 3-point dog. That's now 7 straight losses against the spread away from home for the Grizzlies dating back to last season. It's also worth pointing out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings on the road against the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!
|10-31-16||Nuggets v. Raptors -7||Top||102-105||Loss||-107||9 h 9 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -
I like the value here with Toronto in a big bounce back spot after losing last time out at home against the Cavaliers. Prior to that they beat up on the Pistons at home, winning by 18 as a 6-point home favorite. This will now be the Raptors 3rd straight at home to start the season, while Denver hits the road for the second time in their first three.
The Nuggets were able to win and cover on the road at New Orleans in their opener, but that's not a win to get excited about. The Pelicans are a one man show with Anthony Davis. Denver followed that up by losing at home to Blazers and now get their biggest test to date against a Raptors team that is one of the elite forces in the Eastern Conference.
The big key here is that Toronto has a huge home court edge the Raptors went 32-9 at home last year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Denver hasn't been sharing the ball all that well. The Nuggets are 25th with 18.5 assists/game and are a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists. Take Toronto!
|10-29-16||Nets v. Bucks -6.5||108-110||Loss||-105||9 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks -
The Nets have come out strong covering as a 11.5-point dog at Boston on Wednesday and then winning outright as a 6-point dog at home against the Pacers last night. I believe it has Brooklyn getting a little too much respect in what should be a tough spot. I know it's early in the season, but playing 3 out of 4 nights on a back-to-back is not easy for a bad team like the Nets.
Brooklyn also took advantage of the Celtics and Pacers not giving them the respect they deserve. Milwaukee's not going to be so kind, as the Bucks will come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing their home opener to Charlotte, who has looked impressive in their 2-0 start. It's also worth pointing out that Milwaukee has owned this series, going 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with a 3-0 ATS mark at home during this stretch. Take Milwaukee!
|10-28-16||Suns +9.5 v. Thunder||Top||110-113||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Suns +
We are getting some exceptional value here with Phoenix catching almost double-digits against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is going to put up ridiculous numbers this season, but I'm not buying OKC being a real threat in the Western Conference. The Thunder were far from impressive in their opener against a bad 76ers team. They won the game 103-97, but just as easily could have lost. They had to outscore Philadelphia 34-22 in the 4th just to secure the win.
One of things that made a number of these OKC role players so good last year is because opposing teams had to pay so much attention to Westbrook and Durant that they often got left wide open. That's not going to be the case this year and we saw the new addition of Oladipo struggle in his Thunder debut, going just 4 of 16 from the field. The Thunder also don't have a real 3-point threat on this team and that makes it that much easier to defend them.
We are getting great value here on Phoenix because of their lackluster performance at home against the Kings in the opener. The Suns lost 94-113 as a 3-point home favorite. For whatever reason Phoenix's starters didn't bring a lot of energy to that game. I look for a big bounce back effort here, as this team is a lot more talented than people think. Also, Sacramento is better than people think. They just gave the Spurs all they could handle at home last night. Take Phoenix!
|10-27-16||Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 204||99-114||Loss||-105||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest.
Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year.
Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER!
|10-26-16||Wolves +2 v. Grizzlies||Top||98-102||Loss||-110||9 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Wolves +
I'm big on Minnesota this season and while their young nucleus is a part of it, I think the biggest thing that makes them dangerous is the addition of head coach Tom Thibodeau. In his time with Chicago, the Bulls consistently overachieved during the regular season. A big part of that is he doesn't let teams take nights off defensively and that's clearly an area where the Timberwolves needed to improve. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd, giving up 106.0 ppg.
It didn't take long for him to get them playing harder on that side of the ball. In the Timberwolves 7 preseason games, they only allowed more than 100 points once. If they are getting after it defensively when games don't matter, hard to think they aren't going to do the same once they start to count for real.
That defense should be able to dominate the Grizzlies depleted lineup in the season opener. Memphis is without their prized free agent signing Chandler Parsons and backup center Brandon Wright. Tony Allen is also questionable with a knee injury. Keep in mind they also lost some key pieces from last year in Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Mario Chalmers. This is also a team that was horrible down the stretch, going 3-14 over their final 17 games. Take Minnesota!
|10-26-16||Mavs v. Pacers -6.5||121-130||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -
Indiana is a team that I think is flying way under the radar going into this season. All you hear about is the Celtics being the only real threat to Cleveland in the east, but I think this Pacers team is right up there with those two teams and the Raptors.
Indiana really came on strong late last season and a big part of that was the emergence of rookie center Myles Turner and Paul George getting further away from the injury that cost him most of the previous season. While they lost starting point guard George Hill, they did an excellent job replacing him with Jeff Teague from Atlanta. They also added in Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson and Aaron Brooks, all of which who are improvements over what they had. It also gives them great depth across the board and their 2nd unit is going to cause a lot of problems for teams.
Dallas also made some moves in the offseason, bringing in two castoffs from the Warriors in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. While they could have done worse, I don't think either is going to have a huge impact with this team. I'm also not sold on Deron Williams being the answer at point guard and Nowitzki is not near the factor he use to be. Dallas' second unit also leaves a lot to be desired. The Pacers have the better starters and reserves, which has all the makings of a blowout win at home. Take Indiana!
|10-25-16||Jazz v. Blazers -5.5||Top||104-113||Win||100||12 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers -
The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%.
Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road.
I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland!
|06-19-16||Cavs v. Warriors -4.5||Top||93-89||Loss||-115||10 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit.
The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green.
Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State!
|06-16-16||Warriors +2 v. Cavs||Top||101-115||Loss||-103||12 h 9 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors +
It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over.
The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined.
The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State!
|06-13-16||Cavs v. Warriors -5.5||Top||112-97||Loss||-109||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8.
The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively.
Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State!
|06-10-16||Warriors +2 v. Cavs||Top||108-97||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors +
As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State.
As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points.
Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State!
|06-08-16||Warriors v. Cavs +1.5||Top||90-120||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs +
I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game.
Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3.
Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland!
|06-05-16||Cavs +6.5 v. Warriors||Top||77-110||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs +
Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points.
Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games.
As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland!
|06-02-16||Cavs +6 v. Warriors||Top||89-104||Loss||-108||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs +
Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1.
The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder.
This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-30-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7||Top||88-96||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -
The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle.
Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations.
Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State!
|05-28-16||Warriors +2.5 v. Thunder||Top||108-101||Win||100||21 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors +
I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6.
All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense.
It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors!
|05-27-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||Top||113-87||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers -
As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series.
Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close.
Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland!
|05-26-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||111-120||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder.
With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home.
Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State!
|05-25-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||78-116||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
4* Cavs/Raptors NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Cavs -
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the big spread at home in Game 5. Sure Toronto surprised everyone by winning both games at home, but let's not forget what took place in the first two games at Cleveland. The Cavs won by 31 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2. Not only did Cleveland fail to match the intensity of the Raptors in Toronto, but the Raptors shot extremely well in both games.
Toronto now has the Cavaliers full attention and that's bad news for the Raptors. You also have to keep in mind just how much Lowry struggled in Cleveland over the first two games. If he's not playing at an elite level, Toronto has zero chance of keeping this game close. Even if he does play well, it still likely won't be enough to keep pace with a pissed off and highly motivated Cleveland team.
It's also important to note that Cleveland seemed to figure out the Raptors in the 2nd half of Game 4. The Cavs came back from a 16-point halftime deficit to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Look for Cleveland to start off much better at home and be the ones up double-digits at the half. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-24-16||Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder||Top||94-118||Loss||-106||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -
As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2.
The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win.
Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State!
|05-23-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||Top||99-105||Loss||-105||10 h 26 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs -
The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4.
Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer.
Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-22-16||Warriors v. Thunder +3.5||Top||105-133||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +
Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC.
The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series.
Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC!
|05-21-16||Cavs v. Raptors +6.5||Top||84-99||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one.
The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3.
Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3.
Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto!
|05-19-16||Raptors +12 v. Cavs||Top||89-108||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors +
Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days.
Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs.
Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors!
|05-18-16||Thunder v. Warriors OVER 222||Top||91-118||Loss||-110||10 h 6 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER
Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%.
Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th.
OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!
|05-17-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||84-115||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Cavs -
I have no problem laying double-digits on Cleveland at home in Game 1 against the Raptors. Toronto is still without starting center Jonas Valanciunas and were fortunate that Miami lost their starting center in Whiteside in the previous series.
The Raptors are also going to find it hard to get up and match the intensity of the Cavaliers in this game. Toronto just laid it all on the line in Game 7 against the Heat on Sunday and 1-day just isn't enough to recover from a series like that.
Cleveland on the other hand has been off since 5/15 and that kind of rest has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Teams coming off a sweep who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent that is playing on 1 day of rest are 18-5-1 ATS the last 24 times this scenario has come up. Take the Cavaliers!
|05-16-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7.5||Top||108-102||Loss||-102||11 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -
This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half.
The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace.
Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State!
|05-15-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||89-116||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -
I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7.
I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd.
The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto!
|05-13-16||Raptors v. Heat -4||Top||91-103||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation.
The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5.
The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami!
|05-12-16||Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder||99-113||Loss||-108||11 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Spurs -
The Thunder surprised just about everyone but themselves when they went on the road and beat the Spurs for a second time in the series on their home floor. Oklahoma City now has a 3-2 lead and a chance to close out the series on their home floor tonight. I don't think that's going to happen. San Antonio is not a team that's going to panic facing elimination.
The Spurs could have very easily won this series already. Those two losses at home came by a combined 5 points. The Thunder have won the last two in the series behind a couple of dominant performances from Durant and Westbrook and neither one was easy. I look for the Spurs to come up with a gameplan to not only slow OKC's two stars, but get their own offense going. San Antonio shot just 39.8% from the field in the last game and only lost by 4.
Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of 7 or more and the Thunder are just 10-21 in their last 31 with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio!
|05-11-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||91-99||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -
I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home.
The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors!
|05-10-16||Thunder v. Spurs -7||Top||95-91||Loss||-106||9 h 15 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5.
You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive.
Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio!
|05-09-16||Raptors v. Heat -5.5||Top||87-94||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3.
The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench.
Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto!
|05-08-16||Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 198.5||Top||97-111||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER
I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round.
Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field.
UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER!
|05-07-16||Raptors +5.5 v. Heat||Top||95-91||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors +
*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly*
|05-06-16||Spurs -2 v. Thunder||Top||100-96||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs -
My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2.
Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost.
The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio!
|05-05-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||Top||92-96||Loss||-100||10 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors -
Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change.
This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight.
Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto!
|05-04-16||Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs||Top||98-123||Loss||-103||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks +
The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win.
I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons.
Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta!
|05-03-16||Blazers +10.5 v. Warriors||Top||99-110||Loss||-115||12 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers +
I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points.
With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1.
Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers!
|05-02-16||Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5||Top||93-104||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER
The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg.
Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half.
These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.
UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER!