4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +

I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching a big number at home against the Tar Heels. It's hard enough to win on the road against a quality opponent in the ACC, it's an even bigger task to win via a blowout. Especially against a caliber a team like Wake Forest, who has gone 6-1 on their home floor this season.

A big reason for the inflated line is we have UNC off a 107-56 blowout win at home over NC State, while the Demon Deacons lost badly in a 62-79 defeat at Virginia. I expect Wake Forest to be the much more motivated team here, as it's easy to let your guard down after a 50+ point win, especially when you have a massive home game on deck in 3-days against a Florida State team that just beat Duke soundly at home.

Tar Heels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Wake Forest!

4* NBA Vegas Insider ATS Blowout on Knicks -

Last time out the Knicks were embarrassed in a 96-110 loss at home to the Pelicans, which was the game were Rose went missing. I'm not big on excuses, but when a player just doesn't show up to a game it takes away some of your mental focus on the game. Regardless if Rose plays tonight, I really like the Knicks to bounce back with a big time effort and win against the 76ers.

Philadelphia has won 3 of 4, but let's not get carried away, as the wins have come against the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Nets. The 76ers are still just 10-25 on the season really won't be a serious threat until next year when Simmons is 100% healthy. It's also worth noting that New York has owned this series, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings and it's not like the Knicks have been anything special the past few seasons.

Knicks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after playing their previous game at home, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after failing to cover the spread in their last game and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a home loss. Take New York!

5* NCAAB A-10 Game of the Month on George Wash +

I really like the value we are getting with the Colonials as a double-digit dog at VCU. George Washington comes in with a mere 9-7 record, but a lot of that is just not being to close out games late. All but 1 of those losses came by fewer than 10-points. The only exception being a 19-point loss to FSU, who I believe is one of the 5 best teams in the country. VCU on the other hand is 13-3, but have played the much easier schedule in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 18 to Illinois and also lost at home to George Tech. The other big thing is this not the Rams teams of years past, where they were one of the top mid-major teams under Shaka Smart.

I just feel these two teams are more evenly matched than this spread would suggest. It's worth nothing that the Colonials went into VCU and beat the Rams 72-69 as a 9-point dog a year ago. The Colonials are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Rams on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite. Take George Washington!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Lakers/Blazers OVER

I got no problem playing the over on this big total here with the Blazers and Lakers. All signs point to a high-scoring game in this one. We have two teams that don't play a lot of defense. In fact, each ranks in the bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are allowing 109.8 ppg and the Blazers are allowing 111.5 ppg (even worse 113.9 ppg on the road).

Not only do we have two teams who don't play defense, but we have two offenses that like to get out and run and shoot a lot of 3-pointers. Both rank in the Top 10 in pace. Portland averages 108.2 ppg and Los Angeles is at 105.3 ppg overall and a much better 109.8 ppg at home. Each team is also trending up on offense, with the Blazers scoring 109.6 ppg over the last 5 games and the Lakers at 115.4 ppg. 

OVER is 12-4 in the Blazers last 16 road games with a total of 210 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 on the road after allowing 105 or more in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-3 in the Lakers last 16 against a team with a losing record, 13-5 in their last 18 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Indiana -

The Hoosiers snapped a 3-game losing streak in style with a 96-80 win over Illinois last time out. The thing is they are still just 1-2 in Big Ten Play and need this game to get back on track in the standings, so we know we are going to get a max effort here. Maryland comes in of a 77-70 win as a 8-point dog at Michigan, which I think has the, getting a little too much love at home against a much more talented Indiana team. 

Terapins are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games after a SU win, while Indiana is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 against top level teams (outscoring teams by 8+ ppg) after 15+ games. Backing all this up is a strong system favoring a fade of Maryland. Underdogs that have won 80% or more of their games and off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are just 2-10 (22%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons when facing a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Spurs -

I got no backing the Spurs at this line at home with the way they are playing right now. San Antonio is once again playing exceptional basketball, but not getting the type of attention you see with similar elite teams in the Warriors and Cavs. It's resulted in the books being slow to inflate the lines on San Antonio. The Spurs have gone a ridiculous 12-2 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games (30-7 and 23-13 ATS on the season). They are outscoring teams by 17.4 ppg over their last 5. 

Milwaukee's a talented young team, but are not well-equipped to take on a team that's as efficient as the Spurs on both sides of the ball. Especially on the road, where they aren't nearly as good. The offense just doesn't produce at the same level. The Bucks average 105 ppg overall, but only 100.4 ppg on the road. San Antonio gives up just 97.5 ppg on the season and turn up the D at home, allowing only 95.9 ppg. That should allow the Spurs to not only win this game, but do so in convincing fashion. 

Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a win by 15 or more, 12-4 in their last 16 after scoring 100 or more in 2 straight games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 at home and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Bucks 2-8 ATS in their last 1 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take San Antonio! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Florida State -

I really like the value here with FSU laying a short number at home. The Seminoles are an elite team and should be favored by more, but the fact that the opponent is Duke keeping it lower than it should be. On top of that, the Blue Devils are minus one of their most important players in Amile Jefferson. 

Florida State comes into this game 15-1 with a perfect 11-0 record at home. The only loss coming to Temple by just 3-points early in the year on a neutral court. The most impressive win coming recently when they went on the road and beat Virginia. This is an even bigger statement game for the Seminoles against a Duke team that many think will be the team to beat come the NCAA Tournament. 

The Blue Devils are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15 or more at the half of their last game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when the line is +3 to -3. Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home after scoring 85 or more points in their previous game. Take Florida State! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Raptors OVER

I'm expecting a very high-scoring game when two of the Eastern Conference's best square off tonight. We have the Celtics visiting the Raptors. While these two can play solid defense, I don't think we see a lot of it tonight. More than anything, these are two elite offenses that can flat out score and are doing so at a very high rate of late. 

Toronto is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 110.6 ppg on the season, 112.9 ppg at home and 109.0 ppg over their last 5. Keep in mind Boston will be without their best perimeter defender in Avery Bradley and that's a huge loss against the Raptors loaded backcourt. Boston ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, averaging 106.8 ppg overall, 106.7 ppg on the road and 115.4 ppg over their last 5. Note the Celtics offense has been lights out of late. They have scored 110 or more 8 straight and 9 of their last 10. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Celtics last 22 after scoring 100 or more in 4 straight games, 8-0 in their last 8 when having won 8 of their last 10 and 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 11-2 in the Raptors last 13 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 11-3 in their last 14 off SU loss and 11-0 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more in the first half of their last game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Thunder/Bulls OVER

I expect a high-scoring game tonight when the Bulls and Thunder clash at the United Center. This game features two of the league's most promising stars in Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler. While they get all the attention, it's how these two teams are playing overall that has me liking this one to go OVER the mark here set by the books.

Chicago has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 108.8 ppg over their last 5 games. A big part of the improved play offensively, is the production the Bulls are getting from guys like Mirotic, McDermott and Carter-Williams. I look for Chicago to have no problem keeping it going against a Thunder team that doesn't figure to play with a lot of energy on defense playing their 4th road game in their last 5 overall. OKC is giving up 108.7 ppg on the road this season and 106.6 ppg over their last 5.

While the Bulls offense is surging, the defense hasn't been there. Chicago is giving up 110 ppg over their last 5 and will be facing a dynamic Thunder offense that is scoring 106.8 ppg on the season and 111.4 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Bulls don't have the talent at point guard to make things tough on Westbrook. That should lead to a fast-paced game from the get go. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

I like Minnesota to win and cover this short number at home against the Mavericks. The Timberwolves have had a miserable time closing games out and it cost them last time out in a 92-94 home loss to the Jazz. Minnesota took a double-digit lead after outscoring Utah 32-22 in the 3rd quarter only to follow that up by getting outscored 12-25 in the 4th quarter. That loss was the Timberwolves' 4th in a row and I think it's going to lead to a max effort at home tonight against Dallas.

The Mavericks have everyone back healthy and I think it has them getting a little too much love right now. Dallas hasn't had their core group together on the floor since the first week of the season and it's going to take some time to form some chemistry. It was certainly a problem in their last game, which they managed just 82 points in a 15-point home loss to the Hawks. I think it's going to take a few more games for Dallas to figure it out and let's not overlook the fact that they have not played well on the road, going just 4-15 in their 19 games away from home. Take Minnesota!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on USC - 

I like the value with the Trojans laying a small number here against the Golden Bears. USC responded from their first loss of the season at Oregon in style, crushing Stanford 72-56 at home as a 9-point favorite. While they covered that one, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7. I believe that recent poor run against the number, is playing a big part in this short line against a Cal team that is just 1-3 on the road and in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight on the road and off a huge game at UCLA.

A big key here is also that USC has been dominant on their home floor, going a perfect 9-0 on the season. Trojans are 7-0 ATS at home after winning 2 of their last 3 and 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 or less. Cal on the other hand is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a game as a dog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games off a loss. Take USC!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Lakers -

I really like the value here with Los Angeles at basically a pick'em at home against the Magic. The Lakers got off to that great start to the season and then got hit with some injuries and couldn't get out of the slump. They have won 2 of 3 and just rolled the Heat 127-100 at home in their last game. I think we are about to see LA go on a nice little run here to close out January and they should be able to take care of business against the Magic. 

Orlando is just 6-10 and are getting way to much respect here on the road, especially given this a long way for them to travel. It works both ways in the series and I believe it's why we have seen the home team dominate, winning each of the last 7 meetings. Home teams off a game where both teams scored 100+ are 83-45 (65%) ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings +

I really like the value here with the Kings as a double-digit dog against the Warriors. We know that we are going to get a max effort here from Sacramento against Golden State, as well as an energized home crowd that gets up for games like these. While the Warriors are 15-3 SU on the road, they are just 7-10 ATS (1-6 L7) and come in off an ugly collapse against the Grizzlies at home.

On top of that we are getting an inflated line here with the public going to be pounding Golden State off a loss. Warriors are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a game where they didn't cover. Kings are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after playing a game as a home dog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Sacramento!

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes should have no problem cashing in a double-digit win at home against the Scarlet Knights on Sunday. Iowa is a young team that took their lumps in non-conference play against some good teams and are likely going to continue to struggle against the elite teams in the Big 10. The key here is that Rutgers is far from elite. The Scarlet Knights have started out conference play with a 20-point loss at Wisconsin, 13-point loss at home to Penn State and 28-point loss at Michigan State.

The thing with Iowa is this is a team that believes they are much better than their record and know that if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament, they have to finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings. Sitting at 1-2 in league play, this is a must-win for the Hawkeyes at home, where they are a very respectable 8-2 on the season. Note that Rutgers is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Take Iowa!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Line Mistake on Jazz -

This is a great spot to jump on Utah as a short road favorite against the Timberwolves. The Jazz are going to come out locked in after losing their last two on the road against two of the better teams in the east in Boston and Toronto. This is one of the better teams in the west and is only going to get better once they get all their pieces healthy. They should have no problem here against a Timberwolves team that doesn't play great at home (6-12) and are in a tough scheduling spot having to play on no rest after a high-scoring fast-paced game last night at Washington, which they lost 105-112.

Utah is 10-8 on the road, so they know a thing or two about winning away from home and have really been good in this spot against bad teams. The Jazz are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Utah is also a dominant 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. Minnesota doesn't have a lot of depth and are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after a game where their starters combined to log 160 or more minutes. I also love how Utah is one of the elite defensive teams and the Timberwolves struggle to stop opponents (allowed teams to shoot 50% or better from the field in 5 of their last 8 games). Take Utah!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Auburn -

I've had my eye on this young Auburn team this year, as I think it's one of the more talented teams that not a lot of people know about. Bruce Pearl is an excellent head coach and is a proven winner wherever he goes. He's got his young Tigers off to a 10-4 start, which is pretty impressive given they only won 11 games all of last year.

The key here is they come in off back-to-back losses and I believe that's created some great value here. Auburn is going to come out 100% locked in at home to secure their first conference win and should be able to make easy work of Ole Miss. The Rebels covered (63-70) as a 13-point dog at Florida in their last game, but it wasn't really that close (made a late push). Prior to that they hosted Kentucky, so Ole Miss is primed for a letdown here in their second straight game on the road. Keep in mind the Tigers are a strong 6-1 at home, while the Rebels have yet to win a true road game. Take Auburn!

4* NCAAB Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah -

I was on Utah as a double-digit dog at Arizona in their last game, which they covered and I'll jump right back on the Utes in a road game at Arizona State. As mentioned in my analysis for Utah against Arizona, this Utes team is one to watch going forward, as two transfers just recently become eligible and both are studs that will be in the running for Pac-12 All Conference honors. Now that these two are in the mix, this Utah team is better than what people think and I'm confident they will end up near the top of the Pac-12 standings.

Coming off that loss to Arizona should have the Utes locked in for this one and I think there's a big gap in talent here against the Sun Devils. Arizona State barely squeaked out a 78-77 win at home over Colorado in their last game, improving to 2-1 in Pac-12 (other win against a bad Stanford team). Note that Utah beat that same Colorado team at home by 16. Whenever faced up against better competition, this Arizona State has struggled to keep games competitive and I just don't see them keeping this one close, even at home. Give me the Utes -3!

4* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Lakers -

I believe this is an ideal spot to jump on the Lakers at home against the Heat. I know LA is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but I believe that's already been factored into the line here. It's also important to keep in mind that it's not nearly as tough playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back at home as it is on the road. I expect a big effort here from LA, who let one get away last night in Portland, blowing a double-digit lead and getting outscored 13-1 down the stretch of a 109-118 loss.

The big key here is that the Lakers are facing off against a bad Miami team that aren't expected to have the services of big man Hassan Whiteside and just learned that 2nd year forward Justise Winslow will be out of the season. Not having Whiteside is a huge loss in this matchup, as the Lakers really don't have a great answer for him inside. Without him on the floor, it's going to make it very difficult for the Heat to contain this LA offense.

This is also a bad spot for Miami, who I think is getting a little too much love here off a 107-102 win at Sacramento. The Heat are just 6-13 on the road this season and have won back-to-back road games just once this season. This is also a bit of a flat spot for Miami, who will be playing the 3rd game of their 6-game road trip with games against the Clippers and Warriors looming next.  Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Knicks +

I really like the value here with the Knicks catching a pretty big number on the road against the Bucks. These two teams just played Wednesday in New York and the Bucks won 105-104 on a last second shot by Antetokounmpo. Having just lost head-to-head, the game now being played in Milwaukee and the Knicks now having lost 6 straight all have this line much higher than it should be. The team that loses the first of these home-and-home series has a big motivational edge in the rematch and even more so when the line is as high as it is.

It's also worth noting that previous game in New York came with the Knicks playing without Porzingis. He practiced fully yesterday and all signs point to him suiting up tonight. Even if he ends up sitting out, I still like the Knicks to cover here and think there's a good chance they can win outright.

We also find a strong system in play here. Road team that have allowed 105 or more points in 3 straight games and playing a team off a win by 6 or less are 33-8 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wolves/Wizards OVER

I really like the value here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Wizards and Wolves. These are two teams that know how to score the basketball. Minnesota comes in averaging 103.3 ppg and Washington is averaging 105.2 ppg with an even better 108.2 ppg at home. At the same time, these are two teams that struggle to defend. The Timberwolves give up 105.0 ppg and the Wizards allow 106.2 ppg.

With both teams having not played since Tuesday (2 days rest), both are going to have fresh legs and will be looking to get out an run as much as possible. This is huge for both of these teams, as Minnesota's starters lead the league in minutes played and the Wizards are second. Some might look to back the under after seeing Minnesota score 91 and 89 points in their last two games, but that actually is a good thing. OVER is 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 after going UNDER the total in each of their last 2 games. OVER is also 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 when playing with 2 days rest and 16-5 in their last 21 after playing their last 2 games on the road. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Utah +

I really like the value we are catching here with Utah as a double-digit dog against Arizona. I know the Wildcats are ranked in the Top 20, but I think the Utes are capable of winning this game outright. Utah comes in at 10-3 and we have barely got to see what this team is capable of, as they just recently added in two transfers in Collette (Utah State) and Barefield (SMU), who weren't eligible until the semester break. They are combining to average about 30 ppg in the 5 games they have played. Both will be in the mix for Pac-12 All-Conference honors and this Utah team is right there with the top teams in the conference.

In Utah's last 5 games they have shot 47% or better from the field in all 5 games and are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after such a stretch. Utes are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Utah!

5* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern -

This is a great spot to back the Wildcats laying a short number at home. We are seeing some great value here on Northwestern, based off the results in the last game for both teams. While the Wildcats lost at Michigan State 52-61 as a mere 2.5-point dog, the Gophers won 91-82 as a 14-point dog at Purdue.

Winning back-to-back road games is not easy, especially in conference play and in a elite conference like the Big 10. I look for a big letdown here for Minnesota, while we can expect to see a max effort from Northwestern, who I believe is going to finally break their NCAA Tournament drought this season. Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 6.5 or less, while Wildcats are 6-0 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 6.5 or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover in their last game. Take Northwestern!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Shocker on Iowa +

It's been a rollercoaster start to the 2016-17 season for the Hawkeyes, but things are pointing up for Iowa, who just recently got back stud freshmen forward Tyler Cook (13.1 ppg), who is the only other player besides senior sharpshooter Peter Jok (22.1 ppg) averaging in double-figures. Cook is one of several Iowa freshmen who are making an impact and a bit reason why this team got off to a bit of a slow start in non-conference play. I was really impressed with how they bounced back from an embarrassing 22-point loss at Purdue with a overtime win at home against Michigan.

Nebraska comes in a perfect 2-0 in Big Ten play with a couple of impressive road wins at Indiana and at Maryland. As good as those wins look, I'm not buying this team being a real threat in the Big Ten and the oddsmakers are certainly begging for you to take the Cornhuskers at this line. I think Iowa is the more talented team and pulls out the victory. Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a dog of 6.5 or less and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Mavericks -

A lot of people are going to see Dallas laying a decent sized number at home and want nothing to do with the Mavericks, as they are just 11-24 on the season. However, Dallas is a team that I think is a great buy low option right now. The schedule hasn't been easy and they have had to deal with a lot of injuries and simply don't have the depth or talent to overcome not having their main guys on the floor. They are close to full health right now, as Bogut is set to return.

The other key here is the Suns are a mess right now. Phoenix has won just 5 games since the start of December and only 1 of those came on the road. That was against a Lakers team that was in a major funk and they barely squeaked out the win (4-16 road record overall). Suns did win their last game, but are a miserable 8-24 ATS in their last 32 off a win. Mavs are 11-4-1 ATS last 16 against a team with a losing record and 7-3 ATS last 10 vs the Western Conference. Take Dallas!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -

Detroit is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Hornets. The Pistons have certainly been in a funk of late, but have shown some signs of life recently and this has the feeling of a must-win game for Detroit. They just lost at home 116-121 to the Pacers, in a game where their defense let them down. Look for a big effort on that side of the ball tonight. They also need to secure a win here with a 5-game west coast road trip looming after this contest.

The Hornets should be ripe for the taking tonight. Charlotte just played an intense game at home last night against the Thunder. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in the last 9 days. The Hornets have also not been playing great on the road of late, dropping 6 of their last 8, which includes an ugly loss at Brooklyn. Detroit has played much better at home and will be out for revenge from a 77-87 loss at Charlotte in the most recent meeting. That puts them in a great spot historically, as the Pistons are a perfect 10-0 ATS at home revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less under Van Gundy. Take Detroit!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington +

I think the value here is with the Huskies, who are getting zero respect in this one, as they take on an Oregon team that comes into this one having won 11 straight. The last two were at home against UCLA and USC, where they handed both those teams their first loss of the season. Now the Ducks hit the road for their first true road game since losing by 17 at Baylor way back on 11/15. It's also worth pointing out that Oregon has had their problems winning in Washington.

The Huskies came out flat after a long layoff and lost 74-79 at home to in-state rival Washington State to open up Pac-12 play. We are going to get a max effort here at home from the Huskies in this one and if they can get hot shooting, an outright upset isn't out of the question. Washington is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after playing their last 2 games at home. Ducks on the other hand are just 2-6 ATS off a win by 20 or more points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after covering the spread in their last game. Take Washington!

5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Notre Dame +

I think the books have created some great value here with the Irish, as my numbers suggest Notre Dame should be favored here. This is a really tough spot for Louisville, who is coming off a big 15-point win over Indiana, which they were extremely motivated for after losing at home to Virginia the previous time out. Now the Cardinals hit the road for only their second true road game of the season. The first one was at Grand Canyon, which doesn't really count. Note there wasn't even a spread on that game it was such a big mismatch and yet Louisville only won by 9.

I've watched this Notre Dame team on several occasions and really like what I have seen. The big key here is the Irish are at home, where they are 9-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by 26.7 ppg. Notre Dame also has a great history against the Cardinals of late, as they have won and covered 5 straight at home. Louisville is also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a conference opponent and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bulls/Cavs UNDER

I think the total here has been set way too high. Cleveland could be playing this game without all 3 of their Big 3 and will more than likely not have Irving in this one. James and Love are both dealing with sickness and it was so bad for James that he was told to stay home from shootaround. Even if he plays, I just don't see the Cavs looking to push the tempo here.

Chicago isn't in much better shape, as they could be without Wade and Rondo continues to ride the bench in Hoiberg's doghouse. The key here is that whoever does end up playing will bring the defensive intensity in this division matchup. UNDER is 19-7 in the Bulls last 26 division road games, 9-3-1 in their last 13 after scoring 100 or more in their last game and 7-3-1 in their last 11 off a SU win. Take the UNDER !

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Oklahoma State -

I believe the fact that the Cowboys are favored on the road here after getting embarrassed at home 75-92 by West Virginia tells you all you need to know. Oklahoma State has had some poor showings against elite teams, but outside of those two losses to WV and UNC, I've liked what I have seen from this team. I look for a huge effort here on the road against Texas, as the Cowboys want to avoid an 0-2 start with what they have on deck. After this they go to Baylor, host ISU and then go to Kansas.

Texas covered in a 62-65 loss at Kansas State, but this Longhorns team simply isn't very good. They are just 3-7 in their last 10 and last time they played at home they lost 58-63 as a 12.5-point favorite against Kent State. Shaka Smart will get this Longhorns program back to being elite, it just isn't going to happen this year. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing straight up record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover in their last game. Take Oklahoma State!

4* Thunder/Hornets NBA ATS Annihilator on Hornets -

Charlotte is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. All the attention that Russell Westbrook is getting has the OKC overvalued, especially on the road. The Thunder are just 8-8 in their 16 road games this season. Most of those wins have come against bad teams, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Last time out they lost 94-98 at Milwaukee and this is a bit of a flat spot with a huge game at Houston on deck tomorrow, which will be a nationally televised game on TNT.

The Hornets come in having lost 2 straight, but one was at home to Cleveland and the other was at Chicago. Charlotte is just 5-7 in their last 12, but the only loss at home was to the Cavs. With the Hornets set to hit the road for a 5-game trip after this game, I expect an all out effort here against the Thunder. Take Charlotte!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on West Virginia -

I have no problem laying this number on the Mountaineers Tuesday at Texas Tech. West Virginia comes in at 12-1 and just opened up Big 12 play with a 92-75 blowout win on the road against Oklahoma State as a mere 3-point favorite. This Mountaineers team is legit and I'm going to keep riding them until the books make the proper adjustments with their spreads.

The Red Raiders lost 56-63 at Iowa State last Friday and it was a big time meltdown by Tech, who had a double-digit lead with around 10 minutes to play. That was the best team the Red Raiders have played all season. The soft schedule has Texas Tech sitting at 11-2 and 9-0 at home, which is why we are seeing this small number. While the home record looks great, they haven't played anybody. They have 4 home games that didn't even have lines the opp was so bad and 4 more where they were favored by 20+. The only exception being a home game against Rice, where they were favored by just 12 and they barely won that game 85-84. Take West Virginia!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Spurs UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's contest between the Raptors and Spurs. These are two of the best the league has to offer and I expect both to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Anytime you get two elite teams facing off with a big total like we have here, the UNDER is always a strong option. In fact, the UNDER is 62-20 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 or more with two teams that are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg.

Last year these two teams played twice and combined for just 191 and 197 points. It's also worth pointing out that both totals last year were no where close to what we are seeing here. The total was just 187.5 at San Antonio and 192 at Toronto. We also see that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Spurs last 5 off a SU loss and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Timberwolves -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a much better team than their 11-23 record would indicate and a big part of that has been the inability to hold on to big leads. The Timberwolves have 9 losses this season where they led by double-digits. That includes their last game, where a 12-point halftime lead turned into a 89-95 loss at home to the Blazers. I think that loss is playing into this low number here and creating great value with Minnesota in a huge bounce back spot.

Philadelphia comes in off a 124-122 win at Denver, but have won back-to-back games just twice all season. I don't see it happening here, as this is a really bad matchup for the 76ers. Keep in mind the Timberwolves already annihilated Philadelphia 110-86 at home earlier this season and they were a 11.5-point favorite, which means they should be laying closer to 7.5 instead of 4.5 here.

76ers are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 20 or more points, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

I like the Jazz to go on the road and make easy work of the Nets tonight. Utah has gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Jazz come in having won 3 straight, but didn't play great last time out at Phoenix in a 91-86 victory. This will be the first of a 5-game road trip and I think Utah is going to come out looking to make sure they start their trip with an easy win. Best case scenario here would be to jump all over the Nets early and be able to keep minutes down before playing in Boston tomorrow.

Brooklyn is definitely a team that make that happen, as they just lost 95-118 last time out at Washington and have been losing by double-digits on a more consistent basis of late. Jazz are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Utah!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

Don't let this big number scare you away from taking the obvious play here on Utah at home against the Suns. Phoenix comes in off what looks to be an impressive 99-91 win at home over the Raptors, but that was more about Toronto being in an awful spot than the Suns figuring something out. The Raptors were playing on no rest after laying everything on the line the night before in Golden State. They were not interested in that game against Phoenix.

The Suns haven't won back-to-back games since early November (only done it once all season) and last time they won, they came out the next night and lost by 16 to the Rockets. Seeing how they have had a miserable time against the Jazz of late and Utah getting back a big piece in point guard George Hill, this has a blowout written all over it. Suns are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 off an upset win as an underdog, while the Jazz are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games against a team with a losing record. Take Utah!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Creighton +

I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. The Bluejays are perfect on the season at 13-0 and will be out to make a statement here against the defending champs. This is also a key game when it comes to the Big East title race. If Creighton wants to dethrone Villanova, they can't afford to lose to them at home. We have already seen one elite team come into the CenturyLink Center and leave with a loss. The Bluejays hosted Wisconsin earlier this season and won convincingly 79-67.

Villanova has passed their only significant road test so far this season, winning outright at Purdue 79-76, but this Creighton team matches up much better with the Wildcats. Villanova has relied heavily on their defense, which is only giving up 61.5 ppg, but that unit will be tested here. Creighton has shot 50% or better from the field in all but one game, which is a remarkable feat given they are going into their 14th game of the season. The Bluejays are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 at home and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa St -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying a relatively small number at home against what I feel is a very overrated Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders come in with a 11-1 record in non-conference play, but that's a result of an easy schedule. The best team they played was Auburn and they lost 65-67 and the Tigers aren't as good as this Iowa State team.

Texas Tech also played just 1 true road game in non-conference play and that was at Richmond, where they were favored. In fact, this will be the first game all season where the Red Raiders are an underdog, which speaks volumes to how easy their schedule has been. The Cyclones hit a bit of a rough patch, losing 3 of 4 after a 5-0 start, but two were against tournament teams in Gonzaga and Cincinnati and the other a true road game against an in-state rival in Iowa, where they simply couldn't buy a basket. Cyclones are 50-20 ATS in their last 70 home games as a favorite of 6 or less. Take Iowa State!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -

I really like the value here with the Pacers as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Indiana will be out for revenge here, as they just lost at Chicago 85-90 on Monday. Not a big surprise to see the Bulls win at home in the first meeting, given how the home/away splits of these two teams.

Chicago is 10-6 at home compared to 6-10 on the road. The gap between home and away is a lot bigger for Indiana. The Pacers are a strong 11-5 at home, compared to a miserable 4-13 on the road. Indiana has covered 4 of the last 5 at home against the Bulls and are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on West Virginia -

You have to pick your spots with road teams in conference play, but I really like the value here with West Virginia at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cowboys. The Mountaineers went an impressive 11-1 in non-conference play and that included a 66-57 win on the road at Virginia and 89-57 blowout win against Illinois.

The Cowboys were a respectable 10-2 in non-conference, but weren't nearly impressive. The best team they played was North Carolina on a neutral court and they got absolutely destroyed in that contest 75-107. The Mountaineers aren't quite on the level of the Tar Heels, but I don't think they are too far off. Oklahoma State has also had a miserable time against West Virginia over the last 2 years, sweeping all 4 meetings and winning by double-digits in both matchups on the Cowboys' home floor. Take West Virginia!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -

I'll gladly take Memphis as a small home favorite against the Thunder. We can expect an all out effort here from the Grizzlies, as they come in having lost two straight on the road. Now Memphis returns home, where they are a solid 12-7 on the season. The Grizzlies recent struggles combined with the Thunder having won and covered 4 straight, has created the value here with Memphis.

The Grizzlies may or may not have the services of Mike Conley. There's no question they are in better shape with him on the floor, but I still like them to win here without him. Memphis is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road loss by 10 or more, while OKC is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 3 or less. Take Memphis!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Butler -

I got no problem laying this big number on the Bulldogs against the Red Storm. Butler comes in at 11-1 with wins over the likes of Arizona, Indiana and Cincinnati. The only reason this line isn't higher, is because St. John's comes in off a shocking 93-60 win at Syracuse in their last game. Just about everything that could go right went right for the Red Storm in that game and the Orange clearly weren't all that interested.

This is still a below-average St. John's team. Just prior to the big win over Syracuse, they lost at home to Penn State by 16. They also have losses to the likes of Long Island and Delaware State. What their win over the Orange does, is keep the Bulldogs from overlooking this contest, which they easily could have done. Butler swept the season series last year, winning 78-58 at home and 89-56 at St. John's. With this year's Bulldogs team looking even stronger than a year ago, I see no reason why they won't win here by double-digits. Take Butler!

4* Raptors/Warriors NBA ATS Annihilator on Warriors -

As much as I like the Raptors, I look for the Warriors to come out with a chip on their shoulder at home after losing the way they did at Cleveland on Christmas Day. Golden State has had a full days off since that heartbreaking loss and will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor. The Warriors already went into Toronto and beat the Raptors 127-121 and it could have been a lot worse as they had a 13-point lead at the half and shot 50% from the field.

Warriors are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Golden State!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Temple +

I like the value we are getting here with the Owls as a decently priced home dog against the Bearcats. Temple is 8-2 in their last 10 with one of those losses coming in a true road game at Villanova. The Bearcats are 10-2 and do have a big 1-point road win over Iowa State, but also lost by 10 at Butler. I just think this Owls team is too good to be catching this many points at home against a conference rival.

Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing on their 2nd game in 8 days, while the Owls are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as a dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Temple!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies +6.5

I like the value here with Memphis catching a big number against a Celtics team that they will be motivated to play well against. These two teams just played in Memphis last Tuesday and the Celtics won 112-109 in OT after erasing a 14-point halftime deficit. Boston's Isaiah Thomas was sensational, scoring 44-pionts on 10 of 16 shooting with 7 made 3-pointers. I'll take my chances here that Thomas doesn't match that production and we get another closely contested game.

The reason Memphis is listed as a decent sized dog here, is because they are playing on 0 days rest, after an ugly showing last night in a 10-point loss to the Magic. The thing is that game was lopsided from the start and the Grizzlies were able to avoid playing their key players big minutes, so they aren't going to be gassed here. Memphis is also a team that has thrived in this spot. They are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 overall in this spot. Celtics are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 against the Western Conference and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Memphis!

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Syracuse -

This is an ideal spot to back the Orange at home. Last time out Syracuse was embarrassed on their home floor 60-93 by St. John's as a 14-point favorite. The loss dropped the Orange to 7-5 overall and just 3-5 in their last 8. The key here is that all 5 losses came against quality programs in South Carolina, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's. With their ACC opener on deck Sunday at BC, this is a game the Orange are going to come out looking to make a statement and get some momentum going into league play.

They should have no problem doing just that. Cornell is a mere 3-8 and have had a horrible time keeping games respectable against better talent. The Big Red's closest opponent talent wise to Syracuse was Houston and they lost to the Cougars by 30-points. The other thing here is that Syracuse has shown the ability to feast on bad teams. Out of their 7 wins, 6 have come by 20+ points, including a 105-57 win over E Michigan at home just last week. Take Syracuse!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pelicans -

I really like the value here with New Orleans laying a short number at home against a Dallas team that is getting a little too much love here after back-to-back road wins over the Blazers and Clippers. What gets overlooked is they caught both of those teams in bad spots. Each was playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, while the Mavs were coming off a day of rest.

Now they catch an equally rested Pelicans team (2-days), who has been playing much better of late and should be a great bet going forward, as they are finally starting to healthy. Jrue Holiday has played in just 17 of their 32 games and Tyreke Evans only recently returned and has played in just 4. This will be just their 5th game with their 3 best players on the floor in Anthony Davis, Holiday and Evans.

Let's also not forget that Dallas had been a miserable road team prior these two recent wins. Even with those two wins, they are just 3-13 on the road this season. Mavs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 2 days of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take New Orleans!

4* Bulls/Spurs NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

The defensive intensity is turned up a notch from what it normally is during the regular season on these Christmas Day games and the Spurs/Bulls matchup will be no different. Both these teams can get after it defensively. Chicago is only giving up 99.7 ppg and the Spurs allow just 97.9 ppg. 

This game means a lot to both teams. San Antonio wants revenge from a 91-95 loss in Chicago earlier this season, which is one of only two road losses all year. The Bulls are simply desperate for a win, as they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 11. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Bulls 14 road games this season, 9-1 in their last 10 after a loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER! 

5* Warriors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER

Playing on Christmas Day is a big deal for these NBA players and there's not a bigger game on the schedule today that the NBA Finals rematch between the Warriors and Cavs. Both teams want to make a statement and send a message to other team that they are the team to beat this year. While it won't quite be the intensity of a Game 7, it will be close. 

A lot of people get taken in by what these two teams can do offensively, but both are elite defensive teams when they want to be. They just don't play with that intensity on defense every game, as they can just rely on their offense to carry them against the majority of the league. Keep in mind that these two combined for just 182 points in Game 7 last year and we are sitting here with a total north of 220. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Celtics -

Boston is finally healthy and come into this one having won and covered 4 straight. This team expected a lot better than to be sitting here at his time with a 12-7 record, so I don't see them taking their foot off the gas. In fact, I think this could be the beginning of a big run for the Celtics, as long as they can stay healthy. The key here is we are getting some great value with Boston as a small home favorite, due to the fact that they are playing on no rest after last night's game in Indiana. The thing is this Boston team has great depth.

At the same time, the Thunder are a team that I feel is overvalued right now. Russell Westbrook is playing exceptional, but the rest of the team isn't and they are missing a big piece to their roster in starting guard Victor Oladipo. OKC has also not been nearly as good on the road as they have at home. The Thunder are 11-6 at home, compared to just 6-6 on the road.

Celtics are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 when playing on 0 days rest. It's also worth pointing out they lost at OKC earlier this season 96-99, as they are 30-17 over the last 2 seasons when revenging a loss. Take Boston!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic -

I think this is a great spot to back Orlando at home. I know the Magic are just 5-10 at home this season, but the Lakers are only 5-14 on the road and this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road, as they played and lost at Miami last night 107-115. It's also LA's 7th straight on the road, as they haven't been home since 12/11. Each of the last 6 have come on the east coast.

Simply put, this is a worn down Lakers team that just wants this road trip to be over with and to get home and spend some time with their families for the holiday. They also have a huge game on deck against the Clippers on Christmas Day, which is one they always get up for. Orlando's struggles at home are starting to get to them and I think we see a huge effort here after an ugly performance last night at New York. I simply don't see LA being able to match their intensity and keep in mind they are playing short-handed with Larry Nance out with an injury and Julius Randle not expected to play after returning home to be there for the birth of his child.

Home team has dominated this series, covering 5 of the last 6 in the series and the favorite is 8-3 over the last 11. Lakers are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing home record , 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their previous game. Take Orlando!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wake Forest -

This is going to look like a big number for the Demon Deacons to be laying a home. Wake Forest comes in with a record of 8-3, while LSU is sitting at 8-2. The key here is the Tigers strong start isn't as impressive as you might think. LSU has played 7 of their first 10 at home (7-0) and most of those home games coming against inferior competition. Their only games away from home where neutral site games against Wichita State, VCU and Old Dominion. They went just 1-2 in those games, losing by 35 to Wichita State and 11 to VCU.

As we saw with Kentucky last night, going this deep into the season and having to play your first true road game is not an easy task. I look for the Tigers to struggle here against a talented Wake Forest team that is better than anticipated. All 3 of the Deacons losses have come away from home, one was a neutral site game against an elite Villanova team and the most recent a 65-69 loss in a true road game at Xavier, who is another top tier team. The impressive thing with the loss to Xavier, is they had a chance to win, despite shooting just 36.2% from the field and allowing the Musketeers to shoot 51.0%.

That was a rare off night from the floor for Wake Forest, as they have shot 47% or better in 7 of their 11 games this season. LSU has great defensive numbers because of their soft schedule, but allowed 47.1% against Wichita State and 49.2% against VCU. With this being their first true road game, I expect another poor defensive effort. Take Wake Forest in what should be a comfortable double-digit win at home!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

I strongly believe the books have the wrong team favored in this one. While Indiana is just 15-15 overall, they are a dominant 11-4 at home this season. Only the Warriors and Cavaliers have more home win on the season. The Pacers come in having won 5 straight at home and are going to be extremely motivated to make it 6 straight.

One of Indiana's 4 home losses came against these Celtics back in November, as Boston squeaked out a 105-99 win. What can't get overlooked in that loss for the Pacers was they didn't have the services of All-Star Paul George, who was out with an ankle injury. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge, but they will also come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a 15-point 2nd half lead in a 111-118 loss at New York last time out.

Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a same season loss. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Oklahoma -

I like the value here with the Sooners laying just 6-points against Auburn on a neutral court. Oklahoma comes into this game with a record of just 6-4, but there's nothing to be ashamed about their 4 defeats, losing to UNI, @ Wisconsin, Wichita State (Neutral) and Memphis. The only game they weren't competitive was the true road game at Wisconsin, who is one of the elite teams in the country.

Auburn has the better overall record at 8-2, but the Tigers have played a pretty cupcake schedule. The best team they have played was Purdue, and they lost by 25 on a neutral court. Their best win came against Texas Tech and were fortunate to get that victory in a 67-65 victory. Auburn also lost to BC as a 10.5-point favorite. The Tigers have some nice young talent, but still have a lot of improving to do.

Note that not only has Oklahoma played the tougher schedule, but they have the better overall numbers. The Sooners are shooting 46.6% from the field, while Auburn is only hitting at 43.8% clip. The Tigers allowed Purdue to shoot 64.3% from the field. The Sooners should have  field day here on offense an I don't see Auburn being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pistons -

I believe we are going to see Detroit have zero problem covering this number at home against the Grizzlies tonight. The Pistons are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed 82-113 at Chicago on Monday, which followed a 15-point home loss to the Pacer and 14-point defeat at Washington.

I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to match the intensity of Detroit in this one. Memphis just played an overtime game at home against the Celtics last night, which they lost 109-112. It has to be a tough loss to swallow, as they led by 14 at the half and still had a 9-point advantage going into the 4th quarter. The Grizzlies had 5 different players log 30+ minutes. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if they rested some players tonight as they likely want to be fresh for Friday's division home game against the Rockets.

Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 13-2 ATS at home when coming in having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning record. Take Detroit!

5* NBA Central Division Play of the Month on Bucks/Cavs UNDER

We had the UNDER in last night's game which was a tough loss, as the two teams finished UNDER the total in regulation, but the game went to OT and pushed it over the mark. On the bright side, I believe has kept tonight's total higher than it should be. More time than not, these second games of a home-and-home set on back-to-back nights end up being a much lower scoring game than the first time around. The fact that these two had to play an extra 5 mines last night, only helps us here.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cavs decided to rest some players here, as they want to be fresh for Sunday's big Christmas Day showdown against the Warriors (have to play Brooklyn Friday). Note that J.R. Smith is already listed as doubtful and Kevin Love is questionable and likely won't play.

UNDER is 35-18 in Cleveland's last 53 home games after giving up 105 or more points in 2 straight games and 13-3 in their last 16 after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucks last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest and 10-4 in their last 14 against division opponents. Take the UNDER!

4* Kentucky/Louisville Vegas Insider on Kentucky -

I have no problem backing the Wildcats on the road against a very good Louisville team. Kentucky has the better overall talent in this one and potentially the best player in the country in freshman guard Malik Monk, who just dropped 47 on North Carolina in the Wildcats last game. Louisville is a team that relies on their defense to beat teams and that works to perfection against lessor opponents. I just don't see them having an answer here for Kentucky's star power.

This isn't the first time both teams have been good, yet the Wildcats come in having won each of the last 4 meetings. Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a dog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the SEC. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the ACC and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. Take Kentucky!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Smash on Iowa -

I got no problem laying this number with the Hawkeyes at home against an inferior North Dakota team. After a slow start against a brutal schedule, Iowa has looked like a completely different team of late. It started with a 95-68 blowout win over Stetson at home. That got the Hawkeyes confidence back and they followed it up with dominant performances against Iowa State (78-64) and UNI (69-46), winning both in blowout fashion as an underdog.

With an overall record of 6-5, Iowa can't afford to let their guard down here at home against the Fighting Hawks. I believe a lack of effort is the only thing that could keep the Hawkeyes from winning here by 15+ points. Note that the same UNI team Iowa just crushed on a neutral court, lost to the Panthers by 8-points.

It's also worth pointing out that Iowa has a much better home court edge than people think and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Hawkeyes are also a great bet when playing at home and well rested. They are 32-12 in their last 44 home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly back the Bluejays laying single digits on the road against the Sun Devils. Creighton comes in having yet to lose in 2016 at 11-0 and should have no problem leaving this one without a loss. The Bluejays were fortunate to leave their last game with a win, squeaking by Oral Roberts at home 66-65 as a massive 25-point favorite. I believe that will serve as a wake up call for Creighton and have them sharp and ready to go here against ASU.

The Sun Devils come in off a 11-point loss at home to New Mexico State and have really struggled just to make games competitive against top level teams. Arizona State has a 19 point loss to UNI, 46-point loss to Kentucky and 33-point loss to Purdue. A big reason for their struggles is they don't play any defense. Sun Devils are allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.3% from the field on the season and have allowed 5 teams to shoot 50% or better already. Creighton is one of the most efficient offense in the country. The Bluejays come in shooting 53.8% from the field and their worst shooting effort in any game this season is 48.3%. Take Creighton!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Cavs/Bucks UNDER

These two teams recently played in Milwaukee on 11/29. The Bucks won that game 118-101. While that game finished over the total of 213.5, we find an even shorter total in the rematch. For good reason. Cleveland didn't show any interest on the defensive side of the ball in that last meeting and the Cavs aren't a team that takes losing lightly. They are going to be out to make a statement here against the Bucks and have really been locking down defensively here of late.

Milwaukee is also going to be all business in this one, as they know they are going to get a great effort here from Cleveland and want to prove that their earlier win was no fluke. Milwaukee's defense has been hit or miss, but they have consistently showed up on that side of the ball against division opponents, as they are allowing just 94.4 ppg against their Central rivals this season. The Bucks also catch a break here, as the Cavs will be minus a huge weapon on offense in Kevin Love, who is doubtful with a knee injury.

UNDER is 35-17 in Milwaukee's last 52 after a SU win, 10-3 in their last 13 against the Central Division and 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

This might seem like a lot of points for the Knicks to be laying, given they have lost 3 straight and are fresh off a 13-point loss to the Nuggets, but this is an ideal spot for New York to bounce back. The Knicks will be returning home, where they are 9-4 this season and have two full days off to regroup and get their legs back. They will also be welcoming back starting point guard Derrick Rose, whose recent absence had a lot to do with their struggles.

While New York is primed for a big bounce back effort, the Pacers are going to have a difficult time playing well here. Indiana will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, after a grueling 107-105 win at home last night against the Wizards. This will also be the Pacers 4th game in the last 5 days. To top it off, they are playing short-handed with Ellis and Stuckey both sidelined, plus are just 4-10 on the road this season.

Indiana is a mere 3-11 ATS this season off a SU win and 8-20 ATS over the last 3 years when playing on the road after scoring 100 or more in 2 straight games. Knicks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 110 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after playing their last two games as a dog. Take New York!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Falcons catching a big number at home against the Buffaloes. Air Force is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their 6 and fresh off a ugly 12-point home loss to Denver as a 5.5-point favorite. We are going to get an all out effort here from the Falcons against a Power 5 opponent and I think they are capable of pulling off the upset.

Colorado comes in off a less than impressive effort, as they only won 81-71 at home against Fort Hayes State. A team they were expected to destroy to the point that the books didn't even put up a line on it. The Buffaloes have struggled to cover off a win, as they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after securing a victory last time out. They are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the MWC. Falcons on the other hand are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take Air Force!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers OVER

I think these two teams will have no problem eclipsing this high total tonight. The Wizards have seen the OVER cash in 5 straight games, all of which seen a combined score of 213 or more. Washington is averaging 111.8 ppg during this stretch and giving up 108.2 ppg. I don't see the Pacers being able to keep Washington's offense in check here. Indiana is in a big flat spot here defensively, as they have played 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 on the road and are short-handed right now with both Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey sidelined with injuries.

The key here is that Indiana still has the fire-power offensively to take advantage of Washington's poor defense. On top of that, the Wizards don't figure to bring much intensity defensively in this one. Washington just played yesterday at home against the Clippers and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.

OVER is 23-9 in the Wizards last 32 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-3 in their last 17 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less. OVER is also 10-1 in Washington's last 11 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Michigan State -

The Spartans come in off a 71-63 win over Tennessee Tech, but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite. It was a sloppy performance and Michigan State really beat themselves by going just 17-30 from the free throw line. Izzo was far from pleased with the performance and with 7-days off from that game to this one, I expect a big time effort here from the Spartans at home against a bad Northwestern team that is taking a major step up in this one. It's also worth pointing out Michigan State will get back Matt McQuaid after he missed the previous game. He's a key contributor and one of their best 3-point shooters.

The Spartans are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after playing their previous game as a home favorite and an identical 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after a home win. This is a statement game for Michigan State and I believe this line should be closer to 20 than 10. Izzo is going to have the troops ready and it's important to keep in mind they can't flirt with losing any of these games against inferior competition after their poor start against a brutal schedule. Take Michigan State!

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing exceptional value here at home against the Jazz. Memphis will be all business after an ugly 92-96 loss at home to the Kings last time out. They also will be getting back the glue to their team in point guard Mike Conley, which is key here, as Utah continues to be without their starting point guard in George Hill.

The Jazz come in having won 10 of 12, but a lot of that has to do with a very favorable schedule. During this stretch, Utah has played just two road games and they were against inferior teams in the Timberwolves and Lakers. This is their first real road test since going to Houston back on 11/19 and I think it's going to be difficult for them to play well against a talented Memphis team that owns a 11-5 record at home this season.

Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. Utah on the other hand is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Memphis!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I think both of these teams are primed for a poor offensive showing in this one. Both are going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and there's a little extra motivation defensively here with this being a division matchup. Indiana is playing without one of their top offensive weapons in Monta Ellis and his absence has really improved their defense. Detroit on the other hand just played last night in Washington, where the defense failed to show up in a 108-122 defeat. I look for a much better effort defensively at home, where the Pistons are only giving up 90.7 ppg on the season.

UNDER is 26-6 in the Pacers last 32 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 10-2 in their last 12 when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Pistons last 9 as a home favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 0 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on UCLA -

I'm got no problem laying this big number on the Bruins against what I feel is a very average at best Ohio State squad. UCLA is the real deal this season and are off to an 11-0 start. They proved just how good they are with a 97-92 win in a true road game at Kentucky, which they followed up with a 102-84 win over Michigan, who I think is on the same level as the Buckeyes in the Big Ten ranks.

The only reason this line isn't more, is because Ohio State played out of their minds and nearly upset Virginia on the road in a 61-63 loss as a 12-point dog. This is a different story, as the Bruins are a much more lethal offensive team and I just don't see the Buckeyes having the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take UCLA!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Bulls -

The Bucks jumped on the Bulls early at home last night and cruised to a 108-97 win, easily covering the spread as a pick'em. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see Chicago come out flat, as they knew they were going to get Milwaukee on their home court tonight. The biggest thing with these home-and-home matchups is making sure you get at least a split. So while the Bulls are going to come out extremely motivated here, the Bucks will struggle to bring that same intensity they had last night.

Another big key here is this Chicago team has shown that when they are motivated and want to play well, more times than not they deliver. Prime examples being their recent home wins over both the Cavs and Spurs. It's also worth pointing out the Bucks aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Milwaukee is 9-6 at home, compared to 3-6 on the road. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons -

I'm going to back the Pistons again here as a small road favorite against the Wizards. Detroit's a team that I believe is only going to keep getting better, as they just recently got back starting point guard Reggie Jackson. The Pistons are just 6-9 on the road on the season, but have been playing much better on the highway of late. Detroit is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Washington has won 3 of their last 4, but I'm still not buying this team. The Wizards have two talented guards in Wall and Beal, but the rest of the roster is nothing to get excited about. A lot of that has to do with these two taking a ton of shots and not being all that efficient. When you don't share the ball like the Wizards, you are easy to defend and Detroit is been playing lock down defense of late, allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5.

Last time out the Wizards won 109-106 over division rival Charlotte as a 2-point dog. That only adds value to the Pistons. Washington is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a cover and a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 3-points or less. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Nets/Magic OVER

This one has a shootout written all over it, as two struggling teams face off Friday night with Nets (7-17) visiting the Magic (11-16). Anytime Brooklyn is involved in a game, you have to lean to the over, especially on the road. The OVER is 17-7 in the Nets 24 games overall this season and 10-1 in their 11 road games. Why is that? Brooklyn leads the league in pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game and have shown the ability to score at 106.5 ppg. On top of that, they rank 28th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency and come in giving up 118.5 ppg.

You might be thinking Orlando isn't a great bet here, as the Magic come in averaging just 96.6 ppg overall and a mere 94.8 ppg at home. It's all about Orlando's current form. The Magic are averaging 105.4 ppg over their last 5 and have seen a combined score of 121 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the OVER!

5* Knicks/Warriors TNT Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I look for the Warriors to light up the scoreboard tonight against the Knicks. Golden State is coming off a 5-game road trip, where they only averaged 107.8 ppg. That might seem like a lot, but this is a team that's averaging 117.8 ppg on the season. They have been electric at home, scoring 123.9 ppg. The Knicks have been better than a lot of people expected, but have struggled when facing the elite teams. They simply aren't a good enough defensive team to put up a serious fight here.

The key here is the Warriors up tempo offense allows for their opponents to put up a big number. Golden State is allowing 109.2 ppg at home, as opponents are averaging 90 shot attempts against them. With just 1-day off after that 5-game road trip, I just don't see the all out defensive intensity that would be needed to keep this from going over the total.

It's also worth pointing out that all 5 of the Warriors game on their road trip went under the total, which only adds to the value here, as the OVER is 23-9 in their last 32 after 5 or more consecutive games going under the total. OVER is also 21-7 in the Knicks last 28 road games off a close road loss by 3 or less (lost 111-113 in OT at Phoenix on Tuesday). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Bucks -

Now is the time to strike with Milwaukee as a small home favorite against the Bulls. The Bucks are going to be all business in this one, as they come in having lost 3 straight with the last game being an embarrassing 22-point loss at Toronto. This games simply means more to Milwaukee, as these two will turn around and play in Chicago tomorrow night, so the Bulls know win or lose here they get to take care of business at home.

The Bulls got off to a strong start, but have been slumping a bit of late. While Butler and Wade continue to play at a high level, they aren't getting a lot of production from the rest of the roster. The offense can become stagnant, which we saw first hand in their last game against the Timberwolves. Chicago scored 38 in the first quarter and led by 20+ points, only to score 18, 19 and 19 over the final 3 quarters. Milwaukee is a much better team at home and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Milwaukee!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Nevada -

The Wolf Pack have been impressive early, going 8-2 over their first 10, with a perfect 4-0 record at home. Nevada hasn't just been beating teams at home, they have been dominating them, outscoring teams 82.5 to 66.2. As for UC-Irvini, they have spent most of the early portion of their scheduling traveling and it's starting to take it's toll. That's evident by their 53-84 blowout loss at St. Mary's last time out. That came just 3 days ago, so the Anteaters are coming into this one with some tired legs.

The Wolf Pack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering the spread in their last game, while UC-Irvine is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Nevada!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pistons -

I have no problem laying this small number on the road with Detroit against a bad Mavericks team. The Pistons have been playing some of their best basketball here of late, as they are 7-4 in their last 11. I look for them to be extra motivated here after an embarrassing showing at home in a 79-97 loss to the 76ers. Detroit hasn't lost back-to-back games since the middle of November and I don't expect that streak to end here.

Dallas is still without three key pieces in Nowitzki, Barea, and Bogut and are going to struggle to be competitive without them in the lineup. The Mavericks are getting some love here off a 20-point blowout win at home against the Nuggets, but they haven't won back-to-back games since the beginning of November. Last time they followed up a win over the Pacers with a 22-point blowout loss to the Rockets. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Detroit laid a similar type of beating on them here.

Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite and have won these games by almost 8.0 ppg. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Kings/Rockets OVER

These two teams are poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. Houston likes to play at a frantic pace and should have no problem pushing the tempo here, as they will be playing their third straight at home and just their second game in the last 4 days. It certainly helps facing a Kings team that has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball, as they are giving up 103.5 ppg. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point shot, which is what the Rockets do better than anybody in the league, as they come into this one having made an NBA-record 10 or more 3-points in 24 straight games.

When the offense is rolling, Houston doesn't have to worry as much on the defensive side of the ball and we saw that first hand in their last game at home against the Nets, where they allowed Brooklyn to put up 118 points on 52.5% shooting. Sacramento is a very capable offensive team and should have no problem eclipsing the 100-point mark and pushing this game into the 220's.

OVER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 against a bad team that's won between 25%-40% of their games and 14-4 in their last 18 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Lakers -

I'm going to back the Lakers here as a small road favorite against the Nets. Los Angeles is desperate for a win, as they come in having lost 7 straight. While you could argue the Lakers aren't much better than the Nets and shouldn't be favored, I believe there's a significant talent gap here, especially now that Russell and Young have returned from injuries. Brooklyn simply doesn't haven't great talent to work with and it's really starting to show in their results of late, as they have struggled just to keep games competitive.

We got a great system in play backing the Lakers to cover here on the road based on this small line we are getting. Road teams that have won between 25% to 40% of their games with a line of +3 to -3 off 6 or more consecutive loses are 26-6 (81%) against the spread since 1996 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Warriors -

I look for the Warriors to lay it on the Pelicans tonight. Golden State has failed to cover their last 3 and simply haven't shot the ball up to their standards during this stretch. They should have no problem getting their offense going against the Pelicans. New Orleans is giving up 108.7 ppg at home and in their last 2 have allowed 133 and 119 to the Clippers and Suns.

While the Pelicans have a superstar in Anthony Davis, they don't have the weapons around him to get into a shootout with this high-powered Warriors attack. Golden State should put up 120+ here and I just don't see New Orleans being able to keep pace. New Orleans is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of their last two games and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a upset win as a road underdog. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on OVER

I look for a lot of offense in tonight's game between the Bulls and Timberwolves. Chicago comes in averaging 105.6 ppg at home and should see their offense improve over what it's been of late with the recent return of key reserve Doug McDermott. On top of that, they will facing a Minnesota team that has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves are giving up 109.8 ppg on the road and come in having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 9.

While Minnesota isn't playing much defense, they are getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they are scoring 103.9 ppg. Chicago is a decent defensive team, but are trending in the wrong direction. They are allowing 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and have given up 100+ points in 5 of their last 6.

OVER is 33-18 in the Timberwolves last 51 road games, 16-4 in their last 20 non-conference road games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after giving up 60 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Temple +

I really like the value here with the Owls catching a huge number against the Wildcats in this Big 5 matchup. Villanova is simply way overvalued right now. The Wildcats are not only the defending champs, but are ranked No. 1 thanks to a perfect 10-0 start to the 2016-17 season. Villanova is coming off a fortunate cover against Notre Dame, winning 74-66 as a 5-point favorite, as they trailed by double-digits in that contest.

Temple likely doesn't have what it will take to give the Wildcats their first loss of the season, but they are certainly talented enough to keep this within 16-points and wouldn't be surprised if they kept it within single-digits. The Owls have won 6 of their last 7 and that stretch includes a 81-77 win over West Virginia as a 12.5-point dog. Temple has the inside/outside balance offensively to give Villanova trouble here and have thrived in the role of the dog. The Owls are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a dog and are 5-0 ATS when playing away from home this season. Take Temple!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nets/Rockets OVER

I'm not worried about this big total here, as this game has a shootout written all over it. Houston comes in averaging 110.8 ppg at home and will be facing a Brooklyn defense that is giving up 118.2 ppg on the road. The Nets are a much better offensive team that people give them credit for and come in averaging 106.0 ppg. Houston is allowing just 100.0 ppg at home, but I look for them to struggle to bring the effort defensively here against a bad team, who is going to let them do whatever they want offensively.

Pace is a key thing when looking at totals and this one should feature a frantic pace, as the Nets come in 2nd in the league in pace this season and Houston is a respectable 11th. Another big key with the Rockets offense, is they are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Nets are 29th in defensive efficiency.

OVER is 14-4 in the Nets last 18 against teams who teams who attempt 18 or more 3 points shots/game and 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are scoring 103+ ppg. OVER is also 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 when playing against a bad team (Winning Percentage of 25% to 40%). Take the OVER!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Raptors. While the Bucks come in having lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 overall, they have been playing some of their best basketball here of late. In fact, Milwaukee hasn't lost a game by more than double-digits since losing 75-86 at Dallas way back on 11/6. It's not like they haven't been playing good teams during this stretch, as they have played the Warriors, Raptors, Cavs and Spurs during this run.

That game against the Raptors saw them lose 99-105 at home and they hung right there with Toronto from the opening tip. I just think they are going to want this game more, as the Raptors are poised for a bit of a letdown here after getting a much-needed two-day break over the weekend.

Bucks are 40-24 ATS in their last 64 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and  21-9 ATS in their last 30 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans +

I really like the Pelicans in this spot. They come in having lost 5 straight, but it's been a really tough stretch, as two of those defeats came against the Clippers and two more were against a couple of surging teams in the Grizzlies and Thunder. New Orleans rested up some guys in last night's 105-133 blowout loss to the Clippers, with the intention of laying it all on the line in this game against the Suns. 

Phoenix is certainly a team they can beat on the road. The Suns are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall and are just 3-6 SU at home this season. Phoenix has also not fared well when listed as a favorite this season. It's only happened 4 times, but all 4 resulted in the Suns getting destroyed. They lost 94-113 at home to the Kings as a 3-point favorite, 104-122 at home to the Nets as a 4.5-point favorite, 105-120 at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point favorite and 114-120 at home to the Nuggets as a 2.5-point favorite. 

This is also a really great matchup for the Pelicans, as Phoenix is a guard-oriented team and don't have the talent inside to counter Anthony Davis. Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 after winning their previous game and 1-10 ATS when coming off a victory of 6-points or less. Take New Orleans! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on St. Joe's - 

I'm going to lay the points with the Hawks, as I think we are getting some great value here due the fact that they come in having lost 4 straight. The thing is, they played a brutal stretch during the losing streak. They were competitive in losses to Ole Miss, NC State and Temple, before getting beat bad on the road by an elite Villanova team. With a major step down in competition here with Drexel, St. Joe's is poised to put this one away early. 

The Dragons are 4-4, but there's not a lot to be impressed with. Their 4 wins are against Hartford, North Texas, Lafayette and High Point. The losses are against Monmouth, Rutgers, LaSalle and Niagara, who I think are all worse than this St. Joe's squad. The big key is they weren't competitive in most of those defeats, as all 4 came by at least 9 with two coming right around the 20-point mark. 

Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after failing to cover in 4 straight games, while Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games and 3-12 in their last 15 home games after playing in back-to-back games where they were called for 22 or more fouls. Take St. Joe's!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wizards -

I had the Bucks last night in a crushing loss, as Milwaukee blew a 20-point halftime lead at home in a 110-114 loss as a mere 3-point favorite. That's the kind of defeat that is hard to bounce back from, especially when you are playing on the road on no rest. I look for the Bucks to come out flat here, which is something they have done on the regular when playing on the road, as Milwaukee is just 3-4 on the highway, scoring a mere 94.7 ppg.

I know Washington has been a disappointment thus far, but I actually like that, as we know we are going to get a big effort here from the Wizards on their home floor, as they continue to try and get their season turned around. Washington is also playing with some confidence, as they knocked off the Nuggets 92-85 on Thursday and it's the defensive effort that has me excited, as this is a team that had given up 100+ in each of their previous 4. The lack of effort defensively is a big reason why they are sitting at 8-13. I look for another strong showing on that side of the ball, which should be all the Wizards need to win here going away. Take Washington!

4* NBA Vegas ATS Shocker on Blazers

The Pacers continue to be one of the biggest disappointments early on, as they come into this one sitting at 11-12 through their first 23 games and fresh off an ugly loss at Dallas, who even with the win are tied with the 76ers with a league-low 5 wins. While Indiana has played better at home, this is a really tough spot for them, as the game against the Mavs last night finished up a 5-game west coast trip. So not only are they poised to be flat off the long road trip, but they are playing on no rest.

Portland is another team that hasn't quite lived up to expectations, but I like them in this spot. The Blazers are desperate for a win after dropping their last two at Memphis and Milwaukee in close defeats. However, the biggest key here is the domination of Portland in this series. They have won 5 straight against the Pacers, including a 131-109 blowout win at home to close out November.

Pacers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Portland!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of Month on Xavier -

I have zero problem laying double-digits on the Musketeers at home against the Utes. Xavier is going to be all business when they take the floor here, as they come in looking to snap a 2-game losing streak, which saw them lose at Baylor 61-76 and at Colorado 66-68. Baylor is an elite team and Colorado is one of the toughest places to play. Look for the Musketeers at home to return to the form that saw them open up the season 7-0.

Utah on the other hand is a team that I think is still getting some love for what they did a year ago, when they finished up 27-9 and 2nd in the Pac-12. The Utes only returned 2 starters from that team and loss their most important player in big man Jakob Poeltl. So far Utah has played a cupcake schedule, which has allowed them to jump out to a 6-1 record. The only decent team they played was Butler and they lost to them on their home floor by 9-points. It's also worth pointing out that Utah has yet to play a game on the road or on a neutral court and it's not easy playing that first true road game, especially for an inexperienced team going up against an elite team like Xavier who is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Take Xavier!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin -

I'm going to back the Badgers as a small road favorite against in-state rival Marquette. Wisconsin's only two losses have come against a couple of elite teams in Creighton and North Carolina. While the Golden Eagles are a solid team, they are not on the same level of those two teams. Marquette's two toughest games this season were against Michigan and Pittsburgh and they lost both of those, losing by 18 to the Wolverines, who are not in the same class as the Badgers in the Big Ten.

This is also a big revenge spot for Wisconsin, as they haven't forgot about a 55-57 loss at home to Marquette last year. A game where they beat themselves by shooting a mere 36.4% from the field and only got to the free throw line 4 times. I look for Marquette to be the team struggling to find their shot in this one, as Wisconsin can really get after you defensively, as they come in allowing just 59.1 ppg and are holding opponents to 40.1% from the field.

While the Golden Eagles are 5-0 at home this season, they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are efficient offensively, making 45% or more of their attempts from the field (Badgers are shooting 47.8% on the season). Take Wisconsin!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks -

I'll gladly back the Bucks at home against the slumping Hawks. Atlanta was able to snap a 7-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at home against the Heat, but that's nothing to get excited about, as Miami was missing half their roster. The Hawks are now just 2-10 in their last 12 after starting out the season 9-2. While Atlanta is trending down, Milwaukee comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Bucks have won 5 of 6, with the only loss coming against the Spurs at home by a single point. Milwaukee bounced back two nights later and defeated the Blazers 115-107.

When things are going bad in Atlanta it's a good idea to keep fading them, as the Hawks are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 under head coach Budenholzer when they come into a contest having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Hawks are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing with 1 day of rest. It's also worth pointing out the Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in the series and the home team has covered 4 of the last 5. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

I like the value we are catching here with Orlando as a decently priced road dog against the Hornets. This is a tough spot for Charlotte, who is in a bit of a letdown spot here off a big home win over the Pistons, where they were playing with revenge from a loss just 8 days ago and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow night at Cleveland, where they will be playing with revenge from a hard fought 93-100 defeat at Cleveland earlier this season.

The Magic on the other hand are primed for a big bounce back performance following an ugly 2nd half in a 87-117 defeat at home to the Celtics last time out. Orlando was outscored 68-37 in the 2nd half after leading by 1-point at the half. Prior to that defeat, this Magic team was playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they had won 3 straight and 4 of 5 with the only loss being a 1-point defeat at Memphis. That stretch included a 12-point win at San Antonio and 6-point victory at Detroit.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December road games, spanning the last 2 seasons, and are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Charlotte is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing against a team with a losing record. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Spurs/Bulls TNT ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

This Bulls team has been up and down this season and come into this game having lost 3 straight, so they are not getting a ton of love here against a Spurs team that is a perfect 13-0 SU on the road this season. I believe that has created some great value here with Chicago, who I'm confident is going to come out as motivated as they have all season in this spot. Not only are the Bulls looking to snap their losing streak, but this is a prime time home game on TNT against an elite team. This is a game Chicago will use as a measuring stick, much like they did in their last win in a 111-105 win at home over the Cavaliers as a 1.5-point dog.

The big problem for the Bulls of late has been their production from their reserves and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. While Carter-Williams is likely still a couple weeks from returning, there's a good chance McDermott is available tonight, as they recalled him last night from the D-League. While Chicago could be getting a key piece back, there's a decent chance the Spurs are going to be without starting point guard Tony Parker for this one. This is also a tough spot for San Antonio, playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days.

Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after losing 4 of their last 5, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games played on Thursday. Take Chicago!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies -

I like the value here with Memphis, who continues to be undervalued against the spread here of late. The Grizzlies come in having won 4 straight 11 of 14 overall. The reason we are getting value, is they are missing key players like Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and Vince Carter, but they have a number of guys step up.

I like their chances of adding to their recent run here at home, where they are a solid 8-4 to open the season. Portland is a team a lot of people were high on, but have not been playing well. They had their 3-game winning streak snapped last night in a 107-115 loss at Milwaukee, as their defensive woes continued to rear their ugly head. Hard to see a big effort defensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Grizzlies, who haven't forgot about an earlier 94-100 loss at home to the Blazers back in early November. Portland is just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100+ in their previous game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 on the road, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest. Take Memphis!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly lay this small number on the Bluejays against the Cornhuskers. While Creighton comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, I don't think people realize how well this team is playing. The Bluejays are 8-0 and have more than proven themselves against some quality opponents. They beat a very good Wisconsin team by 13 at home and followed it up with 3 straight non-conference wins over Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss all by at least 9 points.

Nebraska is a decent team and are well coached under Tim Miles, but they are a young team that isn't on the same level as Creighton. The Cornhuskers lost their two best players from last year in Shavon Shields and Andrew White III, who combined averaged 33.4 ppg. They do have a solid player in Tai Webster, but you need a compliment of players who can score to take down this Bluejays squad, which has 6 players averaging 8 or more points per game, including 19.4 ppg from top scorer Marcus Foster.

The most amazing stat with Creighton is their shooting to start the season. The Bluejays have shot at least 50% from the field in all 8 of their games this season. Nebraska, which relies on their defense, simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this game close. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Illinois State -

I have no problem laying this small number on the Redbirds against the Golden Hurricane. Illinois State has jumped out to a 4-2 record and their two losses have come on the road against TCU (71-80) and Murray State (70-73). Both of which they could have easily won, as they had the lead at the half in both games. I look for the Redbirds to come out all business here looking to get that first road win. Keep in mind Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley and has the potential to overtake Wichita State for the top spot in the conference.

As for Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane come in 3-3 and have not been all that impressive so far. Their 3 wins are against New Orleans, Oregon State and Oral Roberts. They just lost 62-72 at Arkansas-Little Rock last time out and earlier this season lost at home to Jacksonville State 73-84. The loss that really stands out to me is a 53-80 defeat at Wichita State, who I mentioned is not that much better than this Illinois State team. Let's also not forget this Golden Hurricane squad lost a ton from last year's 20-win season and are expected to finish in the bottom 4 of the American Athletic. Take Illinois State!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Nuggets -

I like the value here with Denver as a short road favorite against a Nets team that has really struggled to be competitive of late. Brooklyn is a mere 1-10 in their last 11 and all 10 losses came by at least 5 points, with the majority coming by double-digits. So while the Nuggets aren't a great team, this is an opponent they can take advantage of. We should also see a big effort here from Denver, who comes in off a much-needed 106-98 win at Philadelphia.

Beating up on road teams that don't play defense has been a specialty of the Nuggets over the last few years. Denver is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams who are allowing 103+ points/game. Sure, Brooklyn can score, but that also favors the Nuggets against the spread, as they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who are scoring 103+ points/game.

It's also worth pointing out the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 or more, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Take Denver!

4* NBA Revenge Game of the Week on Hornets -

Charlotte will be all business when they take the floor tonight against the Pistons, as they get a chance at some big time revenge against the Pistons. These two teams just recently played in Charlotte on 11/29 (8 days ago) and Detroit rolled the Hornets 112-89. What will get overlooked by the public in that loss, is the fact that Charlotte was playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th game in 5 nights, while the Pistons came in a full 2 days of rest.

This time it's the Hornets who have the scheduling edge. Charlotte had yesterday off and are playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. Detroit on the other is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a huge home game last night against division rival Chicago and it will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. It's also worth pointing out that the Hornets are finally healthy again and should get back to the form that had them open the season 6-1.

Hornets are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 when revenging a loss of 10 or more opponents, while the Pistons are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and a mere 4-8 SU & ATS on the road this season. Take Charlotte!

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value here with Boston laying a short number here on the road against the Magic. The Celtics could be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas, but are well equipped to play without him, as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Avery Bradley can all bring the ball up the court if needed.

Orlando comes in having won 3 straight, but two of those wins came against bad team in the 76ers and Wizards and the other was against the Pistons in a huge flat spot after a long road trip and big game against the Bulls on deck. Now it's the Magic who are in a flat spot, as they just played 5 straight on the road and have to return home on no rest after playing last night in Washington.

While Orlando is poised for a bad showing, we should get a strong effort here from the Celtics off a 1-point loss at Houston. Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games since early November and are 4-1 ATS in L5 off a loss. They are also a solid 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS (5-1 L6)  on the road, while the Magic are just 4-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season. Celtics are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Boston!

5* NBA No Limit Total Top Play on Suns/Jazz OVER

I think the books have set the bar way to low here on the total for tonight's game between the Suns and Jazz. While Utah is only allowing 91.8 ppg at home and just 95.1 ppg on the season, they haven't been locking down opponents of late, giving up 102.5 ppg over their last 5. Phoenix is a team that is capable of scoring on anyone and come in having put up 100+ in all but 4 games this season. They are really clicking at the moment, as they are shooting 49.6% from the field in their last 5 games.

Utah is also in great form offensively right now, which is part of the reason they haven't been getting after teams defensively. The Jazz have scored at least 105 points in 5 straight games and will have no problem keeping that streak going against the Suns, who are giving up 113.2 ppg on the season and 115.2 ppg on the road.

OVER is 12-4 in the Suns 16 games this season against teams who average at least 18 3-point attempts per game, 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 100 or more points in 3 straight games, 11-2 in their last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-0 this season against teams with a winning record. OVER is also 8-0 in Utah's last 8 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Falcons. Evansville comes into this one with some confidence, as they just knocked off Boise State 72-67 at home on Saturday. As for Bowling Green, they find themselves in a tough spot here, as they just played on Sunday at Cincinnati in an ugly 56-85 loss to the Bearcats. The Falcons are now 0-3 in true road games this season, as they lost at Oakland and South Dakota earlier this season.

Evansville is a perfect 4-0 at home with a couple of solid wins over Boise State and Morehead State, as well as two blowout wins over inferior opponents in Alcorn State (82-59) and Wabash (83-39). It's also worth pointing out that the Purple Aces have played the much tougher schedule to this point, which only adds more value here with this small line.

I look for Evansville's defense to be the difference in this one. The Purple Aces are only giving up 64.1 ppg (55.2 ppg at home) and are holding opponents to just 40.2% shooting (34.7% at home). Bowling Green is only shooting 40.0% from the field on the season and come in off a horrible shooting performance at Cincinnati, as they hit just 36.8% from the field. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Ball State -

These two teams come in with identical records at 4-4, but it's pretty clear who the better team is in this one. Ball State comes in off a bad loss at home to IUPUI, but the other 3 defeats have all come against quality opponents in Indiana State, Alabama and Valparaiso. This is a huge bounce back spot for the Cardinals and there's added incentive here with revenge from last year's 53-54 heartbreaking loss at Bradley.

The Braves finished just 5-27 last year, as they sent out one of the youngest rosters in college basketball history with 10 freshman, 1 sophomore and 1 senior. They are still a very young team and should continue to struggle on the road. Last time out they lost 69-91 at home to Nevada as a mere 6-point dog. In that game Bradley allowed the Wolf Pack to shoot 55.6% from the field. That's a bad sign for the Braves against a very efficient Ball State offense, that is shooting 47.1% from the field and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line on the season.

Bradley is just 16-38 ATS in their last 54 as a road dog of 7 to 12.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Ball State!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Spurs. The Bucks come into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Milwaukee has won 4 straight, which includes a 118-101 blowout win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect to see that same intensity when the Bucks take the floor here against the Spurs.

San Antonio comes in having won 11 of their 12 games, but are not blowing teams out like they have in years past. Out of those 11 wins, only one of them came by double-digits and that was a mere 12-point win at Washington. This has also been a very favorable stretch for the Spurs, as they haven't faced a lot of good teams during their recent run. I think Milwaukee is not only capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but can certainly win this game outright.

Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Milwaukee!

4* UConn/Syracuse ATS No Brainer on UConn +

It's been a disappointing start to say the least for the Huskies, who are just 3-4 and have yet to cover a spread (0-5). They have started to play better basketball of late, but are clearly way undervalued right now. They recently only lost by 10-points on a neutral court against an Oregon team that a lot of people think is capable of winning it all, so that a good sign that things are getting better.

Syracuse is 5-2, but they haven't been all that great either. Their 5 wins are against Colgate, Holy Cross, Monmouth, South Carolina State and North Florida. When actually tested against a quality opponent, they have struggled, losing 50-64 as a 8.5-point favorite against South Carolina and 60-77 at Wisconsin as a mere 6-point dog. It's not like the Huskies don't have talent and this is certainly a game they can win outright.

Huskies are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 off a close win by 3-points or less and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less. Take Connecticut!