5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's total between the Clippers and Pelicans. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NBA at 111.1 ppg, but they simply aren't going to be the same explosive offensive team going forward. The Pelicans lost star big man DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury. Cousins was averaging 25.2 ppg and a team high 2.2 made 3-pointers/game. New Orleans will have to adjust their style and I think it takes some time for the offense to figure it out. 

The Clippers come in having allowed and scored at least 100 points in 13 straight games, which is also creating value with this big total set here. The offense hasn't been as good for LA the last two games and I think we see them struggle to get going here. 

UNDER is 41-14 (75%) when you have a total of 220 to 229.5 where the road team is revenging a loss to a team that scored 100+ points in the previous meeting and is off a road win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Santa’s Clara -

I cashed in on the Broncos on the road Thursday at San Diego and will fire back with them here catching points at Pepperdine. The Waves come in off a mere 1-point win at home over Loyola-Marymount for their first conference win of the season. That's nothing to get excited about, as they are now tied with Loyola-Marymount in the basement of the WCC at 1-8. 

The Broncos are 4-5 in league play and already took care of business against the Waves earlier this season at home and are now 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Pepperdine is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a loss and 1-8 ATS over the last 2 seasons at home when playing on Saturday. Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 25 or fewer points in the 1st half of their previous game. Take Santa Clara! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on San Diego -

I love the value here with the Toreros as a short road favorite against the Lions on Saturday. San Diego comes in off a 66-58 win at home over Santa Clara and I look for them to carry over that momentum here against Loyola Marymount.

This is a game San Diego needs to win with games against Gonzaga and St Mary's looming on deck. That shouldn't be a problem, as the Lions are a mere 1-8 in conference play and are just 4-5 at home this season. Toreros are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, while Marymount is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take San Diego! 

4* NCAAB Non-Conf Game of the Week  on Alabama +

I like the value here with the Crimson Tide as a home dog against the Sooners on Saturday. I think we are getting a great price here on Alabama because of how much love Oklahoma is getting because of the play of Trae Young. The Sooners have lost 3 straight on the road and couldn't be in a bigger letdown spot after their huge win over Kansas earlier this week. 

Alabama on the other hand is very tough to take down on their home court. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 at home in SEC play and 9-1 overall. That includes a 22-point win over Texas A&M and a victory over Auburn, who is on top the SEC and has a 18-2 record overall. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma is a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when listed as a favorite. Take Alabama! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Duke -

I like the value here with the Blue Devils laying a short number at home against Virginia in Saturday's huge ACC showdown. Duke was widely considered the most talented team in the country coming into the season and they haven't disappointed. The fact that the Cavaliers are 19-1 is certainly helping us here and I'm not saying Virginia isn't a good team, I just don't think they can keep it this close against Duke on their home floor.

The Blue Devils are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, where they are averaging 96 ppg. As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, they haven't seen anything like what Duke is going to bring to the table on Saturday and I don't think they have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. 

Adding to all of this is a great system backing a fade of Virginia here. Road underdogs who are an excellent defensive team, allowing 63 or less points/game, and fresh off a game where they held their opponent to 50 or less are just 16-46 (26%) ATS when facing an average defensive team that allows 67-74 points/game. Take Duke! 

3* NBA 76ers/Spurs HEAVY HITTER on Spurs -

I just think this is too good a price to pass up on San Antonio. The Spurs might be without Ginobili, Gay and Leonard, but they come in having won 2 straight and are 20-3 SU and 16-6 ATS at home this season. I just feel this line is a lot lower than it should be due to the fact the 76ers come in off a blowout win and cover over Chicago and are 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. Only 3 of those 8 wins came on the road and two were against struggling teams in Denver and Phoenix and the other was the Celtics without Irving. 

San Antonio is 6-1 ATS last 7 at home, 11-5-1 ATS last 17 vs the Eastern Conference and 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 1 day of rest. Spurs are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games vs strong rebounding teams who are averaging 3+ rebounds more than their opponents on the season. Take San Antonio! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Bulls -

I really like the value here with Chicago as a short home favorite against the Lakers on Friday. The Bulls are simply a much better team than their 18-30 record would suggest. This team has been playing so well of late a a lot of people forget they started out the season 3-20. I just don't think they are getting enough respect here at home. 

A big reason for that is the Lakers enter this contest having won 3 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 games. What people overlook when looking at how well they have been playing, is that 6 of those 7 wins came on their home floor. The only road victory was an overtime win at Dallas, who owns one of the worst records in the league. LA is also still without starting point guard Lonzo Ball and I think they will miss him even more on the road. 

Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. Lakers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Chicago! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dartmouth +

I like the value here with the Big Green as a decently priced road dog against the Bears on Friday. Dartmouth is getting zero love here due to the fact that they are just 4-11 overall and have lost 5 straight. The key here is that Brown is a team they can not only hang with on the road, but beat outright. 

The Big Green lost by just 5 points in their last game, but failed to cover as a 4.5-point dog. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they didn't cover, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU defeat and 13-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come into a game having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Dartmouth! 

5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on St. Peter's +

I love the value and the spot here with the Peacocks catching a big number here on the road against the Broncs.   St. Peter's comes in having lost 4 straight, but have been a lot more competitive than you would think for a team on a 4-game skid. All 4 losses came by 12-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at home to Rider. Revenge is a big time motivator in college sports and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Peacocks returned the favor and won this game outright. 

The road team has dominated this series, going 27-10-2 ATS in the last 39 meetings, with St. Peter's going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Rider. The Peacocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. The Broncs are also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a close road win by 3 points or less. Take St. Peter's!

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Santa Clara +

I like the value here with the Broncos catching near double-digits on the road against the Toreros. While San Diego comes in with an overall record of just 7-13, they are 4-4 in conference play. The Broncos lost 60-75 at home to the Gonzaga in their last game, but did cover as a 20 point dog.

Santa Clara is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a loss by 15 or more points. San Diego on the other hand is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of the Broncos. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a cover where they lost outright are 66-33 (67%) ATS when facing a team off a road loss by 10 or more points. Take Santa Clara! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks UNDER 

I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Nuggets hosting the Knicks. Denver has really been struggling offensively here of late. They have scored 105 or fewer points in 7 straight games and have shot 41% or worse from the field 5 times during this stretch. 

While the Knicks aren't a great defensive team, Denver has been struggling against teams who are just as bad on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that over the last 15 games both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency and I think we have a game that could struggle to see 200 combined points. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Nuggets 20 games this season as a home favorite, 15-4 in their last 19 when revenging a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAB CAA (Colonial) GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern +

I love the value here with the Huskies at basically a pick'em here against the Pride. Northeastern is tied with William & Mary on top the CAA and red-hot right now having won 3 straight, which includes a 20-point road win over William & Mary. I look for the Huskies to have no problem here coming away with a win against Hofstra. 

The Pride upset Northeastern on the road earlier this season, which only adds more fuel to the fire here for the Huskies. Hofstra failed to cover in their last game and that's worth noting, as they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover the spread. The Pride are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and 3-15 ATS over the last 3 seasonswhen playing for just the second time in a week stretch. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play on the Huskies. Road teams who are listed at +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and have won each of their last 2 games by 10 or more points are 30-9 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northeastern! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Quinnipiac +

I like the value with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em here against the Red Foxes. While Quinnipiac is just 2-9 on the road, Marist is just 3-5 at home and have just 1 win in their last 6 games. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. 

Bobcats come into this one off a 76-69 win at home over Siena as a 2-point favorite and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a contest in which they covered the spread. The Bobcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record, while the Red Foxes are a mere 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Quinnipiac! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching what I feel is way too many points here against the Tigers. This line would suggest that Towson is the much better team. I don't think that's the case at all. William & Mary is 6-2 in conference play, while the Tigers are just 4-4 and fresh off a loss as a 5.5-point favorite at Wilmington. The Tribe on the other hand just won by 7 on the road as a dog against Elon and are now 6-4 away from home this season. 

Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 80 or more points, 7-0 ATS after a game where they shot 50% or better from the field and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss. Take William & Mary! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Missouri -

I like the value here with Missouri as a short home favorite against Auburn on Wednesday. Missouri has been better than most expected after losing star freshman Michael Porter Jr and as a result have been undervalued in a number of their games. I really like them here at home at basically a pick'em, as they are 9-1 on their home floor this season. 

Auburn comes in at 17-2 and have been a big surprise, but I also think they aren't quite as good as their record would suggest. Auburn played a really weak non-conference schedule and have yet to face the elite teams in the SEC. They recently lost at Alabama as a 5-point favorite and struggled in their previous road game against a mediocre Mississippi State team. Take Missouri! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Rockets -

I like the value here with Houston and see the Rockets covering easily on the road Wednesday against the Mavs. The Rockets have won 3 straight and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Injuries played a big part in Houston cooling off from their ridiculous pace to start the year that saw them open the season 25-4. Now that everyone is healthy for the Rockets, I think we see them get back to dominating the opposition. 

Dallas had been playing well for a stretch, but are just 3-6 SU in their last 9. I'm sure they will give a big effort here with this game being televised on ESPN, but so will the Rockets. I just don't see the Mavs being able to keep pace offensively. Not to mention this line is basically calling for them to have a shot to win this game outright and I just don't see that being the case. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB 'ACC' GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -

I love the value we are getting here with the Hurricanes as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. Louisville is getting way too much respect coming off a 4-game winning streak, while Miami isn't getting near enough respect due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. They did however win their last game, going on the road and handing NC State a rare loss on their home floor. 

One of the key factors here is the home court advantage for the Hurricanes, who are 6-1 at home with the only loss coming against Duke in a game they should have won (led by double-digits). Louisville is 15-4 overall, but just 3-3 away from home and I believe this is their biggest road test since losing 61-90 at Kentucky. They also lost 69-74 at Clemson in ACC play. 

Cardinals are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games after a win, while the Hurricanes are a dominant 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a contest where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts. Take Miami! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I think we are getting great value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA total between the Bulls and 76ers. Chicago's a team that normally likes to play at a pretty fast pace, but I think we see a much slower tempo here from the Bulls. Chicago is playing their 3rd straight on the road over a span of just 5 days and are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Pelicans. 

The 76ers are also playing for the 3rd time in 5 days and were on the road last time out at Memphis. A game they blew a late lead in by giving up 31 in the 4th quarter. Head coach Brett Brown called out his star players and I think we get a big effort here from the 76ers. The offense also figures to still be limited with both McConnell and Redick out with injuries. 

UNDER is 34-17 in the Bulls last 51 after 3 straight games in which they scored 105 or more points and 10-1 in the 76ers last 11 home games against a team that's only won between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech +

I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a double-digit road dog against the Seminoles on Wednesday. Last time out Georgia Tech pushed as a 14-point dog at UNC and the previous game they failed to cover as a 7.5-point home dog to Virginia (lost 48-64). I think those two results are creating the value here with the Yellow Jackets, as well as the fact that the Seminoles are off a 9-point win and cover as a 2-point dog at Va Tech. 

Prior to losing their last two, the Yellow Jackets had really been playing well. They had won 4 straight and covered 5 in a row. I just think they took a big step up in class against the Tar Heels and Cavaliers. FSU is a good team, but I think they are a bit overrated and that's been evident by their mere 3-4 record in ACC play. Seminoles likely win, but I see a much closer game than books are suggesting. Take Georgia Tech! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +

I love the value here with LSU as a home dog against the Aggies on Tuesday.  Texas A&M comes in having won their last two, but those were home games against Missouri and Ole Miss. Nothing to get excited about. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight and are winless on the road in SEC play with two of the three losses coming by double digits. 

LSU has dropped 3 straight and that's playing into the value here. The Aggies did managed to cover in their most recent win over Missouri, but that's not a good thing for them in terms of covering tonight. Texas A&M is a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a game where they covered the spread. They are also just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 SEC games and and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take LSU! 

3* NCAAB KU/Oklahoma ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Oklahoma -

My money is on the Sooners laying a short number at home against the Jayhawks on Tuesday. Oklahoma comes in having lost 2 straight, but both were on the road. The Sooners are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, including a 4-0 record in Big 12 play. 

Defense has been a problem for Kansas inside conference play. While the Jayhawks are allowing just 69.8 ppg on the season, they are giving up 76.9 ppg in the Big 12. Now they go up against one of the most explosive offenses in the country in Oklahoma, which averages 98.9 ppg at home behind freshman sensation Trae Young, who leads the nation at 30.5 ppg. 

KU is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win. Take Oklahoma! 

4* NCAAB K-State/Baylor VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor -

I like the value here with the Bears as a short home favorite against the Wildcats on Monday. Baylor is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games, but have covered 4 of their last 5, including a mere 3-point loss at Kansas in their last game as a 8-point dog. The previous game they won by 16 at home against Oklahoma St as a similar 4.5-point favorite to what we see here against K-State. 

This has the feeling of a must win game for the Bears and I expect an all-out effort here. I don't think K-State is going to be able to match that intensity. This has the makings of a letdown spot for the Wildcats, who are coming off two huge wins at home over Top 25 teams and have played 5 ranked teams in their last 6 games overall. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and I expect them to cruise to a win here. Take Baylor! 

3* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR  on Grizzlies +

I like the value here with Memphis as a home dog against the 76ers on Monday. The public is all over Philadelphia, who comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8 games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the 76ers to get up here after a grueling stretch that had them play the Raptors at home, Celtics on the road and Bucks at home in a span of just 6 days last week. It won't be easy getting up on the road against the Grizzlies. 

Memphis doesn't get a ton of love and rightfully so with an overall record of 16-29, but this team has quietly been playing well and have been a covering machine. Grizzlies have covered 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They have won 4 straight at home and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Backing up a possible letdown here for the 76ers is the fact that Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Memphis! 

4* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Iowa State OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's NCAAB total that has ISU visiting Texas. I just think we are seeing an overreaction here to the Cyclones last game, which saw them combine for just 122 points in a blowout win over Texas Tech at home. Even with that low-scoring affair, the average combined score in ISU's 7 Big 12 games this season is 155. 

Texas comes in only giving up 66.5 ppg on the season, but are allowing 76.9 ppg in Big 12 play and the average combined score in the Longhorns 7 Big 12 games is 148.5. We are sitting here looking at a total at less than 140, which makes this a pretty easy play for me. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Pistons -

I like the value here with Detroit at home against Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pistons come in having dropped 4 straight and their last two at home have seen them lose by 11 to the Hornets and 10 to the Wizards. Guys going in and out of the lineup played a big part of the struggles for Detroit during this stretch and that's why I'm confident backing them here with a near full roster. 

The other thing is how Detroit has historically bounced back from a bad loss, especially when that defeat came on their home floor. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games off a loss as a favorite and an even better 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Manhattan +

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points on the road against the Peacocks. These are two very similar teams and this line suggests that St. Peter's is the superior side. I don't think that's the case at all and wouldn't be the last bit surprised if the Jaspers won this game outright. 

The other big thing here is the Peacocks aren't playing great basketball right now. St. Peter's comes in having lost 3 straight. The most recent being a 84-88 outright loss at home to Rider as a 4-point favorite. Peacocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Manhattan! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine +

I love the value here with the Waves as a double-digit dog against the Dons on Saturday. We are simply seeing a big overreaction here by the books due to Pepperdine coming in with a 3-16 record and 0-7 mark in league play. San Francisco hasn't exactly been playing well, as they have lost 3 straight, including a 62-65 loss at home to Santa Clara as a 10-point favorite in their last game.

The Dons are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. 

Adding to this is a great system in favor of the Waves. Road teams off 2 straight conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a same season loss are 89-49 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Pepperdine! 

5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets +

I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. 

Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers -

I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the Bucks on Saturday. The 76ers are rolling right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 and fresh off a 89-80 win at Boston. They caught a break with the Celtics not having Irving and will catch an even bigger break here, as the Bucks will be without Antetokoumpo and Brogdon.

Milwaukee struggles as it is with the Greek Freak and I just don't see how they are going to be competitive on the road here without him. Not having him on the floor doesn't just hurt their ability to score, but it takes a lot away from their defense. 

76ers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after covering 2 or more straight games. This is a team you want to keep riding when they are playing well. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Marist +

I like the value here with the Red Foxes as a big road dog against the Broncs. Maris is just 4-14 on the season, but 2 of those wins have come in league play. That poor record has led to them being undervalued by the books and they come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a mere 3-point loss at Siena as a 7.5-point dog. They also lost by just 1-point at Quinnipiac as a 7.5-point dog in their previous road game. 

Rider comes in playing well, but are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. The Red Foxes have been a great bet against good teams, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The road team is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. Take Marist! 

3* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe as a short road dog against the Phoenix. William & Mary come in off a couple of blowout losses at home against two of the top teams in the CAA in Northeastern and Towson. Prior to that they had started out 5-0 in conference play and I look for them to bounce back in a big way here against Elon. 

Tribe are 27-8-2 ATS in their last 37 off a SU loss and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 26 off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take William & Mary! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cal Poly -

I like the value here with the Mustangs as a short road favorite against the Matadors. Cal Poly comes in off a couple of hard fought losses on the road against Hawaii and UC-Irvine and I think they are primed to bounce back with a big win here against Northridge. Cal Poly is scoring 73.7 ppg in conference play, while the Matadors are averaging a horrific 59 ppg on just 36.2% shooting. That makes it tough to win regardless if you are playing at home or on the road. 

Northridge is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a home underdog and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played on Saturday. Take Cal Poly! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Dukes. Neither of these teams have been very good in league play, as both come in with a 1-6 record in conference games. I just think the books are giving James Madison too much respect here in what I think is a very evenly matched game, especially with the Dukes missing second leading scorer Joey McLean. 

Both teams also figure to be a bit fatigued playing on one day of rest and it's a spot that James Madison has struggled with, as they are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 1 or less day  of rest. It's worth noting that last time out the Dragons lost by 22 at Towson, as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! 

4* NCAAB Early Bird HEAVY HITTER  on Niagara +

I like the value here with the Purple Eagles catching points against the Stags. Niagara shouldn't be a dog in this one. Fairfield is just 6-11 overall and a mere 1-5 in league play. The Purple Aces are 12-8 overall with a 5-2 record in conference games and are 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road this season. 

Niagara is also playing some of their best basketball right now. They just won at Quinnipiac, extending their winning streak to 5. The Stags are headed in the exact opposite direction, as they have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 6-point loss at Marist as a 5-point favorite. They also lost the game before that at home to Manhattan as a 6.5-point favorite. 

Niagara is a big time threat offensively, averaging 83 ppg and that's worth noting as Fairfield is a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs teams who average more than 77 ppg. Purple Eagles are also 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games vs bad teams who have won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take Niagara! 

3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on North Dakota State +

I like the value here with the Bison catching points on the road against the Mastodons. North Dakota State comes in off an upset loss at home to in-state rival North Dakota. I believe it's going to have the Bison 100% locked in for this showdown against Ft-Wayne.

I don't think there's any question that North Dakota State is the better team. These two teams have 4 common opponents. The Bison are 3-1 in these games, while the Mastodons are just 2-2. NDSU averaged 80.3 ppg against these teams, while giving up only 67 (+13.3). Ft-Wayne only average 72 ppg and allowed 72.8 (-0.8). 

Mastodons are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and a mere 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Bison are 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take North Dakota State! 

3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pacers -

I like the value here with Indiana as a short road favorite against the Lakers on Friday. I think we are getting a good price here on the Pacers due to the fact that they are playing on no rest and off a 14-point loss to the Blazers where they scored just 86 points. I think the ugly showing last night will actually help get Indiana motivated for a strong showing tonight. 

More than anything, I think the injury situation for the Lakers is just too much for them to overcome. We know for sure they will be without Ball and Caldwell-Pope and it could get a lot worse. Both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are both questionable with injuries. I know they are at home, but I just don't think the Lakers have enough here to keep this competitive. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Suns +

I think we are getting some great value here with Phoenix as a near double-digit dog against the Nuggets. Denver just hasn't been able to put it all together this season and a lot of that has to do with the injury to Paul Milsap, which has had him sidelined since late November. He's still out and tonight they aren't expected to have 3rd leading scorer Jamal Murray. I also think we see a tired Nuggets team, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

Phoenix has lost 3 straight and are just 1-5 in their last 6, but injuries have really played a big part in their struggles. When this team has been healthy or close to, they have been a dangerous team and I think they are more than capable of going into Denver and getting a win. Note that while the Nuggets likely have some tired legs, the Suns are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Phoenix! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale -

I love the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Bears. These two teams come in with similar overall records and each has played only one league game so far. I think it's got Yale way undervalued here. The Bulldogs were expected to give Harvard a run for their money for the Ivy League title, while Brown was picked by many to finish in the bottom 3 of the league. 

It also just so happens that these two teams only league game was against each other with Yale winning 78-72 at home. While the Bulldogs only won by 6, it should have been more, as they shot 50% from the field and the Bears shot only 43.4%. 

I'm not concerned with the change in venue. Yale has been a great road team when in a similar spot to what we see here. The Bulldogs are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less dating back to 1997 and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Yale! 

5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +

I love the value here with the Beavers as a home dog against the Bruins. UCLA will be the popular side, but I don't trust the Bruins on the road in this spot. Last time out UCLA lost at home to Colorado 59-68 as a 11-point favorite. The Bruins have only played 3 true road games and the lone win was against a bad Cal team. 

Oregon State might not look like much on paper, especially given they come in having lost 3 of their last 4, but the Beavers are a vastly improved team. Two of those losses came on the road against Arizona and Arizona State (covered both). The other was a 2-point home loss to Utah. Earlier they beat Colorado at home by 19 and I think their ability to frustrate teams defensively will allow them to pull of the upset here. 

UCLA is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Oregon State! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Pepperdine +

I like the value here with the Waves catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Needless to say it's been a tough stretch for Pepperdine, as they come in at just 3-15 overall and are 0-8 on the road and 0-6 in conference play. I believe all of that has the Waves way undervalued here against a pretty average Pacific side that is just 9-10 on the year. 

I also think it's going to be tough for the Tigers to give the Waves the respect they deserve, as they are riding high off 3 straight wins and have 3 big games against top tier teams in the conference on deck. Pacific comes in off a 66-54 win at Portland as a 3.5-point favorite, which is worth noting, as the Tigers are just 3-11 ATS after playing their previous game as a favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 60 points or less. Take Pepperdine! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockets OVER

I look for the Rockets and Timberwolves to have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Only the Warriors rank higher than these two teams in offensive efficiency this season and the Rockets are a team that likes to push the pace and should dictate the tempo here at home, as they will have both James Harden and Chris Paul available. 

While the Rockets have improved defensively this year, they don't figure to be as good on that side of the ball with both Gerald Green and Trevor Ariza not available because of a suspension. It's also worth nothing that last year all 4 meetings saw at least 220 points with both games in Houston combining for at least 141 points. 

OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockets last 8 home games and 9-1 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Rider +

I love the value here with the Broncs catching points against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-7 with a 4-2 mark in conference play, while St. Peter's is just 8-9 overall and 2-4 in league play. 

Last time out the Broncs were embarrassed in a 64-91 defeat at Iona, but that puts them in a great spot to rebound and cover against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 80 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS after giving up 90+. 

The Broncs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their lat 6 road games against a team with strong home record of 60% or better. On top of that, the road team in the series is 26-10-2 over the last 38 meetings, with the Broncs going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to St. Peters's. Take Rider! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog  on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons as a big road dog against the Tigers. Last time out Drexel lost at home to Hofstra 86-91. It was a dismal defensive performance by the Dragons, who not only gave up 90 points, but allowed Hofstra to shoot 61% from the field. Drexel has responded well from a poor defensive effort, as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing more than 90 points. 

The other big key here is how strong the road team has been in this series. The home team is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. On top of that, Towson is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Drexel! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on San Diego State -

I like the value here with the Aztecs at home in Wednesday's late night action against the Bulldogs. This is a big bounce back spot for San Diego State, as they come in off a tough 80-83 loss at Boise State over the weekend. Prior to that the Aztecs had won 3 straight all by double-digits. This is also a big revenge game for the SDSU, as they were upset by Fresno State on their home floor last year. 

The Bulldogs come in off a win over New Mexico at home, but failed to cover as a big favorite. It continued a trend of Fresno State failing to cash, as they are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Aztecs are 7-1 at home) and are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Take San Diego State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne -

I love the value here with the Mastodons as a short road favorite against the Leathernecks. Western Illinois has started out 0-3 in the Summit and that's really not a surprise, as the Leathernecks were the consensus pick to finish in the basement of the league. All 3 losses have come by 12 or more points, including a 21-point loss at home to Nebraska-Omaha as a 3-point favorite. Ft Wayne is 2-2 and last time they beat Nebraska-Omaha at home, which is a good sign that they can make easy work of Western Illinois and cover this spread on the road. 

One thing the Mastodons do well is connect from outside. They come in averaging 10 made 3-pointers per game and that's worth noting as the Leathernecks are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Western Illinois is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games when playing a team with a winning record. Take IUPU Ft Wayne! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Temple -

I like the value here with the Owls laying single digits at home against the Golden Hurricane. Both teams come in off heartbreaking losses. Tulsa lost at home by 3-points to No. 5 Wichita State, while Temple fell on a last second shot in OT at home to Memphis. My money here is on the Owls to have the easier time bouncing back from defeat. 

Tulsa put everything they had into that game against the Shockers and I just don't think they will have a lot left in the tank on the road. Note that their last two road games didn't end well, losing by 23 at Houston and by 9 at Memphis. On the flip side, the Owls likely didn't come out with the right intensity against the Tigers as they were fresh off an upset win at SMU as a 10-point dog. 

Golden Hurricane are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference loss. Take Temple! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +

I like the value here with the Rebels as a double-digit dog against the Aggies on Tuesday. Texas A&M was expected to be a Top 10 caliber a team this year and they were well on their way after a 11-1 start. Then things started to go unravel, as players were suspended and injuries piled up. The suspensions aren't a good sign that everyone is all in on the team and I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying. 

Texas A&M comes in having lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 13-point loss at Tennessee. They have also lost at home to LSU and Florida during this stretch. Ole Miss isn't a top tier team in the SEC, but are more than capable of keeping this game close. In fact, the Rebels are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog of 10 or more, while the Aggies are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite. Take Ole Miss! 

5* NCAAB 'SEC' GAME OF THE MONTH  on LSU -

I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number at home against Georgia. LSU has been one of the big surprises early on this season out of the SEC, as not much was expected after last year's 10-21 campaign. Will Wade has done a tremendous job in year one turning the Tigers into a contender and as a result LSU has been a team constantly undervalued by the books. I think that's exactly the case here at home against the Bulldogs. 

Georgia is a good team, but aren't exactly playing well at the moment. They just lost by 7 at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite and the game before that they fell by 12 at Missouri. The road struggles have been a theme all season and a big reason why I got no problem laying this short number on LSU here. The Tigers are 7-3 at home and the Bulldogs are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. 

Georgia's offense has been struggling and have really relied on the defense to keep them a float. In that loss to the Gamecocks, they scored just 57 points and allowed only 64. That's worth bringing up, as the Bulldogs are a miserable 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored fewer than 65 points. Take LSU! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on DePaul +

I like the value here with the Blue Demons catching double-digits on the road against the Golden Eagles. DePaul is just 1-4 in their last 5, but have been competitive during this stretch outside a blowout loss to Villanova. They only lost by 5 at Xavier, 9 at Georgia, won by 17 at St John's and lost by just 7 to Providence. 

Marquette is a decent team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here against the Blue Demons. The Golden Eagles lost by 11 last time out at Butler and could struggle to get up for this game against an inferior opponent. Plus, Marquette has a big break looming, as they won't play again until 1/24. 

Blue Demons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Golden Eagles are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game. Take DePaul! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's afternoon showdown between the Heat and Bulls. Miami plays at one of the slower paces in the league. In fact, only the Spurs and Grizzlies play are playing at a slower tempo this season.

Yesterday the Heat played a defensive battle against the Bucks, where they held Milwaukee to just 79 points and the game finished with a mere 176 points and the total was 203.5. With the Bucks on no rest and playing an afternoon game, I look for them to slow down the tempo even more against the Bulls, as they don't want to get in a transition game with Chicago. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a win by 10-points or less. 

We also have a great system in play. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total is greater than or equal to 200 with a home team off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. 

Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Suns +

I like the value here with Phoenix catching points at home against the Pacers. Indiana is primed for a letdown here off that huge home win over the Cavs, where they rallied from a 22-point deficit to pull out a 97-95 win. The Suns on the other hand are in a prime bounce back spot after a blowout loss at home to the Rockets on ESPN Friday. 

Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Pacers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs the Western Conference. Take Phoenix! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana -

I like the value here with the Hoosiers at basically a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. We saw Indiana cover in a very similar spot last time out, defeating Penn State 74-70 as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Hoosiers are now 8-3 at home on the season and I think they should be a much bigger favorite here. Big reason they aren't is the fact that Northwestern comes in off a 23-point win at home over Minnesota as a mere 4-point favorite. This is also a Wildcats team a lot was expected of coming into the season, so the books will be quick to overvalue them off a performance like that. 

The Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Indiana! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pistons +

I like the value here with the Pistons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Bulls. Chicago had a nice run, but have come back to reality here of late. The Bulls are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and 2-4 ATS in their last 6.

Detroit continues to be undervalued due to the injury to Reggie Jackson, but come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a 114-80 blowout win at Brooklyn as a mere 2-point favorite. I look for the Pistons to build off that impressive showing here and secure a comfortable road win over their division rivals. Take Chicago! 

3* NCAAB Prime Time HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -

I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a short home favorite against the Tigers. Last time out Arkansas was upset on their home court by LSU, as the Tigers embarrassed the Razorbacks by 21 points. That was Arkansas first home loss of the season and even with that lopsided defeat the Razorbacks are still outscoring teams on their home floor by nearly 20 ppg. 

Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Arkansas was in their last game, they almost always respond with one of their best efforts in their next game, especially at home. They also make a great team to back, as you often get them at a discount off the blowout loss. Missouri is a good team and playing better than expected without Porter Jr, but are just 4-3 on the road and I just don't see them matching the intensity of the Razorbacks in this one. Take Arkansas! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hofstra -

I like the value here the Pride as a short road favorite against the Dragons. Hofstra comes in off a 76-73 win at Towson as a 5-point dog. Their previous road game they won 71-70 at Northeastern as a 5.5-point dog. The Pride are now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record. 

On the flip side of this Drexel is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and are a dismal 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better. Take Hofstra!

5* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Towson +

I like the value here with the Tigers catching points on the road against the Tribe. I also think the books are tipping their hand in this one. William & Mary, who are only laying 3-points despite the fact that they come in having won 5 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home. 

The Tigers have a history of stepping up their game against top level teams on the road. Towson is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when matched up against top level teams who are outscoring opponents on averaging by 8 or more points/game. The road team is also a solid 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take Towson! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Iowa State +

I like the value here with the Cyclones catching points at home against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of this Iowa State team after all they lost from last year's team, but they have been better than expected, despite the results not going their way. Last time out they went on the road and gave Kansas a massive scare before eventually losing 78-83. 

This is a team that has one of the biggest home court advantages in the country and Hilton should be rocking this afternoon. Baylor also hasn't been playing all that great in league play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. They have lost both road games, including a 24-point loss at Texas Tech. 

Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight games where they scored 75 points or more, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on Saturday and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB Oklahoma/TCU NO BRAINER on Oklahoma -

I like the value here with the Sooners in Saturday's Big 12 showdown against TCU. Oklahoma has come out of nowhere to be a force behind freshman sensation Trae Young. These two teams already played once and the Sooners knocked off the Horned Frogs at TCU. Oklahoma took control of that game late after trailing early. I expect them to dominate from the start here at home, where they are a perfect 8-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by more than 21 ppg. 

This is also a tough spot for TCU. The Horned Frogs have found life a lot harder in conference play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. Last time out they suffered a crushing double-overtime loss at Texas. I just don't think they will have enough gas in the tank to keep this one close. Take Oklahoma! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Bucks +

I think we are getting great value here with Milwaukee as decently priced home dog against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State is a huge public team and the squares will be backing them big tonight with this being a nationally televised game on ESPN. That has this line a lot higher than it should be, especially with Steph Curry not expected to play for the Warriors. 

No disrespect to the Bucks, but I also think this is a game Golden State will have trouble matching the intensity of their opponents. The Warriors simply have two monster games on deck. They are at Toronto tomorrow, who is one of the hottest teams in the league and then have their much anticipated game at Cleveland on Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to treat this as close to a playoff game as you will see in the regular season. 

Bucks have been a good team to back when they take a step up in competition. They are 8-2-1ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NCAAB Ivy League NO BRAINER Columbia +

I like the value here with the Lions catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Columbia comes in with a miserable 3-10 record, but have won each of their last two games and are catching Princeton off a crushing 70-76 loss at Penn in their Ivy League opener.

I look for the Lions to keep this one close, as they have in their last several trips to Princeton. Last year Columbia lost by just 2-points on the road agains the Tigers as a 14-point dog and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Princeton. 

It's also worth noting the Tigers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing 3 or more straight road games. Lions are 32-11 ATS in their last 43 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take Columbia! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number against the Broncs. Quinnipiac comes in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time they played on the road they lost by 26 to St. Peter's. On the flip side of this, Rider has won and covered 3 straight. There's little doubt these recent results are playing into this big number here with the Bobcats. 

The Broncs are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 15-29 in their last 44 off 3 straight conference wins. Quinnipiac on the other hand has been great in this spot, going 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning home record. 

We also find a great system in play on the Bobcats. Road teams off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 44-16 (73%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Peter's

I love the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's has owned this series of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, including their last trip to Canisius, as well as their meeting in the MAAC Tournament. Going back even further the Peacocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Griffins. 

St. Peter's is also a team that has consistently played well on the road against quality opponents, as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. They are also working on a 35-16 ATS run in their last 51 conference games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when coming off a game where they covered the spread. 

Not only did the Peacocks cover in their last game, they absolutely destroyed Quinnipiac at home 84-58. That has them in a very profitable situation over the last 5 seasons. Road underdogs off a win by 20 or more at least 15 games into the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS if the game is between two average teams with a +/- 3.5 ppg differential. Take St. Peter's! 

5* NCAAB *WCC* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego +

I like the value here with the Toreros at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. San Diego comes in at 12-4, but are fresh off a 63-70 loss at St Mary's, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I look for the Toreros to bounce back in a big way here against a Pacific team that isn't very good. The Tigers are just 7-10 overall and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8. 

More than anything, Pacific should not be favored here against San Diego. You won't find me complaining. The Toreros are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games with an impressive 13-2 ATS mark in their last 15 as a road underdog. Pacific won last time out, which is also a plus, as the Tigers are a mere 2-12 in their last 14 off a win and 1-9 ATS when that win was at home. Take San Diego! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel is simply undervalued because their record doesn't stack up with Delaware, but I view these two teams as one in the same. If anything, I would argue the Blue Hens are the lesser of the two teams. Either way, the play here is with the Dragons, who I'm confident will win this game outright. 

Delaware is not a good home team. They are just 4-4 on their home floor, where they are getting outscored on the season. The Blue Hens are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games when they come into a game having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. Also a great spot to back the Dragons off their blowout loss to William & Mary, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! 

4* NCAAB Small Conf ATS NO-BRAINER on Hofstra +

I like the value here with the Pride catching points on the road agains the Tigers. Towson has the better overall record, but I don't think there's much that separates these two teams. Both are 2-2 in league play and if anything the Pride have played the tougher schedule to this point. 

My numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me on Hofstra. Note that the Pride are an impressive 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 14-3 in their last 17 as a road dog, including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Hofstra! 

5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Manhattan +

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Stags. Manhattan has already beat Fairfield once this season. The Jaspers held the Stags to just 35% from the field, while they connected on 59% of their shots. There's simply no reason that Manhattan should be this big of a dog here. In fact, my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. 

Fairfield is only 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Stags. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are a mere 16-43 (27%) ATS since 1997. Take Manhattan! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Sixers +

I like the value here with the 76ers in Thursday's contest against the Celtics in London. Boston is the better team, but with this game being played overseas, I think it's all about motivation. The Celtics own the best record in the east with a 3-game lead over the Raptors and 5.5-game lead over the Cavs. This is a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think they will be 100% invested in this contest, while I expect Philadelphia to come out looking to make a statement, as this is one of those 'measuring stick' games, where they see how they stack up against one of the elite teams. 

It's also a big revenge game for the 76ers, who have already lost twice to Boston, though they are competitive in each game. Philadelphia has been rolling of late and are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when they come in having covered the number in 3 or more games. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after 2 or more consecutive wins and 24-9 in their last 33 when playing a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the 76ers! 

4* NCAAB 'Late Night' BAILOUT BLOWOUT  on SMU -

This is likely going to seem like a big number to back SMU at home with against Temple. The Owls got off to a decent start, racking up non-conference wins over the likes of South Carolina, Wisconsin and St Joseph's. However, they come in at just 7-8 overall and have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 21-point loss at UCF as a mere 5-point dog.

I actually think there's some value here with SMU, who is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Mustangs lost their last two, fallowing 70-73 at Tulane as a 7.5-point favorite and 56-76 at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point dog. That should have SMU 100% locked in for this game and I look for them to lay in on the Owls. 

The Mustangs are 11-0 at home, where they are outscoring their opponents by 23.5 ppg, as they are shooting 50.1% from the field and holding their opponents to just 36.8% from the field at home. Mustangs are also 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 home games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take SMU! 

3* NCAAB 'Situational' ATS ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico -

I like the value here with the Lobos laying a short number at home against the Cowboys. All we basically need here is for New Mexico to win the game outright. The Lobos should have no problem doing just that, as they are 7-3 at home, outscoring their opponents by 17.5 ppg. Wyoming on the other hand is just 3-4 on the road. 

Last time out the Lobos crushed laid it on San Jose State, beating the Spartans 80-47 as a 10-point favorite. New Mexico has responded well off a blowout win, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 off a victory by 30 or more points. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Cowboys. Teams off a conference home win (Wyoming) going up against a team that won by 30+ in a conference game are 25-57 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New Mexico! 

4* NBA 'Magic/Bucks' VEGAS INSIDER on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando catching double-digits on the road Wednesday at Milwaukee. The public wants nothing to do with this Magic team right now. Orlando is a mere 1-14 SU in their last 15 and a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their last 17. Not to mention they are playing on no rest after a game last night in Dallas, which they lost 99-114 as a 7.5-point dog. 

The books had no choice but to inflate this line on the Bucks and I just can't pass up the value here, especially given that Milwaukee hasn't been playing all that great of late and are in a major lookahead spot with a big game at home against the defending champs (Warriors) on deck this Friday. I think the Bucks go through the motions here and do just enough to get the win. 

Milwaukee is just 4-10-3 in their last 17 games against a team from the east and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Bucks are also just 17-40 in their last 57 when laying double-digits. Take Orlando! 

3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Wisconsin +

I like the value here with the Badgers catching points on the road against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it closer than expected last time out against Purdue, despite losing the game by 12-points. That was simply a bad line by the books, as they continue to overvalue the Boilermakers. The Cornhuskers have now covered the spread in 6 straight games where a line has been posted and I believe we are seeing this line inflated as a result. 

There's no arguing that this isn't the same caliber a Badgers team as previous seasons, but it's not a bottom feeder either. The loss at Rutgers in their last game looks bad on paper, but that's a much improved Scarlet Knights team and I don't think Wisconsin went into that game with the right mindset. That won't be the problem here, as I expect a big time effort and outright win by the Badgers tonight. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers +

I like the value we are getting here with Portland as a near double-digit dog against the Thunder. The public won't want anything to do with the Blazers in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a calf injury. Most will just assume Portland has no chance of keeping close without Lillard. 

What they will overlook is how his absence takes away some of the focus and motivation for OKC, who were already going to have a tough time getting up for this game with tomorrow's big showdown at Minnesota on ESPN. Don't be surprised if the Thunder just go through the motions here and end up finding themselves sin a much closer game than expected. 

Portland has won 2 straight, both at home, which is important to note, as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after 2 or more home wins under head coach Stotts. Blazers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5, while the Thunder are a mere 5-17 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Portland! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Cavs 

I like the value here with Cleveland as a road dog against the Wolves on Monday. No question that Minnesota has been playing much better of late, but I think the Cavs are about to go off here now that Isaiah Thomas is healthy an in the starting lineup. Thomas gives Cleveland another prolific scorer who can take over games when James isn't on the floor, which should allow him to rest a little more and be even that much moor effective when he does play. 

In the first two games with Thomas, Cleveland has scored 127 and 131 points, while shooting over 50% from the field in both games. I just think the Cavs have too much fire-power for the Timberwolves, who have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers -

I like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite agains the Hawks on Sunday. It's been a dreadful run here for the Lakers, but a big reason for the struggles was some key guys being out with injuries. While they may be without Larry Nance (questionable), they are pretty much at full strength and I expect a huge effort here from the Lakers. 

Atlanta is the ideal team for LA to get back on track against. The Hawks are arguably the least talented team in the league and have gone a miserable 3-17 on the road this season, where they are losing by an average of 6.6 ppg. Last time out they managed to score just 89 points in a blowout loss to the Blazers and I don't see things getting any better on this west coast trip. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NCAAB Situationa ATS NO BRAINER  on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Peacocks. Quinnipiac had started out 2-0 in league play before they went ice cold in a 74-82 loss at home to Canisius on Friday. The Bobcats shot just 35.1% from the field and had 15 turnovers, while only forcing 5. The fact that they only lost by 8 is pretty impressive.

I think it has them undervalued here and wouldn't be shocked if Quinnipiac won this game outright. St Peter's is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after going over the total in 2 straight games, while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when listed as a dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. 

The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Fairfield! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Long Beach State +

I like the value here with the 49ers catching points on the road against the Anteaters. These two teams have played a similar strength of schedule, yet Long Beach State is sitting at 7-10 and UC-Irvine is just 5-12. The 49ers are also coming into this game having won 2 straight. The most recent an upset 89-81 win over Hawaii.

The Anteaters have just 1 win in their last 8 games and simply should not be this big of a favorite against any team right now. Even if they find a way to win this game, chances are it's by fewer than 7 points. Take Long Beach State!

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside +

I like the value here with the Highlanders catching double-digits on the road against the Gauchos. While Santa Barbara is the more talented team, Riverside played the tougher non-conference schedule and are simply way undervalued coming into league play.

We saw that first hand in their last game, as the Highlanders lost by a final of 65-68 as a 7.5-point underdog. Exact opposite for the Gauchos, who were a 4.5-point favorite over Cal Poly and lost outright. Take UC Riverside! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Celtics visiting the Nets. Boston comes in having won 5 straight and they can credit their defense for their most recent run. The Celtics are allowing just 93.2 ppg over this run and are holding opponents to just 37.5% shooting during this stretch. 

On Wednesday they held the Cavs to just 88 points and last night shut down another elite offense, as they held the Timberwolves to just 84 points. I see no reason for Boston to take their foot off the gas defensively against the Nets, but there's a good chance the offense struggles to get going in this one. 

UNDER is 21-8 in the Celtics last 29 after a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points and 25-14 in their last 39 when listed as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth +

I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. 

The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. 

It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on St. Peter's

I like the value here with the Peacocks as a decently priced road dog against the Gaels. St. Peter's comes in off an impressive 77-64 home win over Monmouth as a 2-point dog, while Iona enters off a 78-85 loss at Canisius as a 1-point favorite. 

The Peacocks are the much better defensive team, as they come in allowing just 67.2 ppg, while the Gaels are allowing 77.2 ppg. That's going to make it difficult on Iona just to win, let along win here by near double-digits. Gaels are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing 2 straight as a road favorite, while the Peacocks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take St. Peter's! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wolves +

I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road dog against the Celtics on Friday. The Timberwolves come in off a 97-98 loss at Brooklyn, but have been playing some of they best basketball here of late. Minnesota is 7-2 over their last 9 and are going to be motivated here off that upset loss to the Nets. 

As for the Celtics, they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a 102-88 win over the Cavs. That game against Cleveland was one they were looking forward to in a big way and I think they have a hard time showing up with that same intensity here against the Timberwolves. Look for Minnesota to want it more tonight. T-Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau has got his team to thrive in this spot, as he's 38-19 ATS in the last 57 road games he's coached on Friday night. Celtics on the other hand are a mere 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing 2 straight at home under Brad Stevens. Take Minnesota! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield +

I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. 

Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and  just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Santa Clara +

I like the value here with the Broncos as a short road dog against the Lions. Santa Clara was embarrassed in their last game, losing 101-52 at Gonzaga. No team likes to get beat like that and my money is on the Broncos coming out extremely motivated and not only covering the spread but beating Loyola Marymount outright. 

The Lions come in having lost 4 straight and simply shouldn't be this big a favorite against the Broncos in this spot. Loyola is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight road games, while the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after a game with 9 or less assists. Take Santa Clara! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Carolina +

I like the value here with the Catamounts catching a decent number here on the road against the Mocs. These two teams come in with similar records, but Western Carolina has played the much tougher schedule and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. The Mocs are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 conference games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after scoring 65 or fewer points in 2 straight games.

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of Chattanooga. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - poor defensive team (45-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 5-25 (17%) ATS since 1997. Take Western Carolina! 

5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside +

I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here.

In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Jazz and Pelicans. Utah comes in off a 104-101 win against the Cavs at home and will be looking to build on that after a really tough stretch. The Jazz are only giving up 95.5 ppg at home this season, as they have held their opponents to just 43.2% shooting from the floor at home. New Orleans isn't exactly playing well, as they just lost two straight at home against the Knicks and Mavs. 

I think we are get a big time effort from both sides defensively here and each side should have some fresh legs having had the lsat 3 days off. UNDER is 18-7 in the Pelicans last 25 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 45-19 in the Jazz last 64 off a close home win by 3 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Bulls OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Bulls. Chicago has been a completely different team here over the last few weeks. They have been a much more explosive offensive team, as they have really spaced the floor well and have a number of guys shooting well from the outside. The Bulls comes in averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5. 

While the offense has been great, the defense is still a work in progress, as they are giving up 108 ppg during this same stretch. Toronto is one of the more explosive teams in the league, as they average 111.2 ppg on the season. I think both sides have a great shot at eclipsing 110, which should have this flying over the mark set by the books. 

We also have a great system in play. The OVER is 41-16 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total off 200 or more in a game that involves a bad team (Winning % 25% - 40%) off an upset loss as a home favorite and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA total featuring the Spurs and Knicks. I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should based on the fact that San Antonio is coming off a game where they scored just 79 points. Prior to that the Spurs had scored 108 or more in 3 straight games and were fresh off a 119 point outburst in New York. 

OVER is also 24-8 in the Spurs last 32 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 in the Knicks last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER on Delaware +

I like the value here with the Blue Hens catching double-digits on the road against Charleston. Delaware comes in having won 4 straight and last time out won outright at UNC-Wilmington as a underdog. Charleston is simply overvalued here playing at home and coming in having won 9 of their last 10. 

Note that we have a lot total here of 129, which only adds more value to the points. Charleston is also a mere 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games with a total of 129.5 or less and just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. Take Delaware! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road against James Madison. William & Mary comes in a t8-4 and are 1-0 in conference play, while the Dukes are just 4-10 on the season and lost at home in their conference opener to Northeastern. 

Last time out the Tribe beat Hofstra 90-87 behind great 3-point shooting and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they combined for 155 or more points and 6-0 ATS last 7 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line. 

We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Dukes. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 after a game where they allowed 80 or more points and playing a team that has allowed 80+ in at least 2 straight games are a mere 18-44 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take William & Mary! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching points on the road against the Saints. Quinnipiac comes in off an impressive 78-76 win at home over Monmouth as a 6.5-point dog and have now covered 4 straight games where a line has been posted. Siena on the other hand comes in off a road loss at Marist as a 3-point favorite and are now just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 lined games.  

The Saints are also just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and this puts them in a great fade spot, as they are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Siena is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Bobcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after covering last time out. Take Quinnipiac! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER

The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance.

The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Iona -

I like the value here with the Gaels laying a short number on the road against the Golden Griffins. Iona comes in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming on the road against St. John's and Rhode Island as double-digit dogs. They are simply the better team and should be laying more than this against one of the bottom feeders of the MAAC. 

Iona has gone an impressive 19-8 in their last 27 conference road games, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when coming off 3 or more wins in a row. 

We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of Canisius. Home underdogs with just two returning starters from last year, who are coming off a close home win by 3-points or less are just 61-109 (36%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Iona! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +

I like the value here with the Broncs as at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Rider comes in off a heartbreaking 76-77 loss at Canisius, but that was a tough spot playing on 7 days rest and off that huge upset win on the road over Penn State. I expect the Broncs to rebound here with a comfortable win over Niagara. 

While neither of these teams play much defense, the Purple Eagles have been atrocious on that side of the ball. Niagara is allowing 88 ppg, while allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field and 40% from behind the 3-point line. Last time out they gave up 98 points to Iona and the Gaels only shot 39.5% from the field. 

Broncs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Purple Eagles are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Take Rider! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Monmouth -

I like the value here with the Hawks laying a short number on the road against the Peacocks. This line really says it all, as Monmouth is favored, yet they come in at 4-9, while St. Peter's is 6-6. Not only have the Hawks played the much tougher schedule, but they have had some tough breaks in close games.

Out of their 9 losses, only 2 have come by more than 11 points and those two were against Virginia and Kentucky. Last time out they lost a heartbreaker at Quinnipiac 76-78 in their conference opener and that's only going to have them more motivated to get a win here. 

Note that St. Peter's is just 26-48 ATS in their last 74 games when listed as a home dog and a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Take Monmouth! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Nuggets OVER

I look for the 76ers and Nuggets to have little to no problem going OVER the posted total here by the books. Denver features one of the most explosive offenses in the league, especially when they are home. The Nuggets are scoring 111.7 ppg at home, while shooting 49% from the field and 38% from long-distance.

They should have no problem reaching their average at home and I would be shocked if they don't eclipse it. The 76ers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the road and will not have their best defender in Joel Embiid, as he sits this one out to rest. While the 76ers will mis Embiid's scoring, they play at a much faster tempo without him on the floor, as he likes to work a lot of isolations. Denver also isn't a great defensive team, so look for Philadelphia to eclipse 100 points rather easily here. 

Last time out the Nuggets combined for 253 points in their game against the Timberwolves and that sets up a very profitable spot, as the OVER is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Eastern Illinois +

I like the value here with the Panthers catching points against the Governors. While Austin Peay has the better overall record, both teams have losing records and I just don't see a lot that separates these teams. 

The big key here is the history of this series and the struggles of the home team. The road team has gone an impressive 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings in the series and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 12. Take Eastern Illinois! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Fairfield +

I really like the value here with the Stags as an underdog against Manhattan. Fairfield was the consensus favorite to win the MAAC this season, as they returned 4 starters, including a legit conference of the year candidate in senior guard Tyler Nelson. While the Stags have started out just 6-6, the schedule has been tough, as they have faced off against the likes of Purdue and Houston and had just 5 home games. All that experience playing away from home will only help them here. 

Manhattan is just 5-7, despite playing a much softer schedule than Fairfield. That was with the Jaspers starting the year out 2-0. They have won just 3 times in their last 7 games and are simply outclassed here. Note that last year Fairfield dominated both meetings, winning 78-49 at home and 97-79 at Manhattan (3-point dog in that one as well). 

The Stags are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Fairfield!