5* Raptors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

I know Cleveland has had over a week off since they swept the Pacers, but I think that rest actually hurts them. While the Cavs swept Indiana, they were far from dominant in the series. In fact, Cleveland's largest win in the series was 6-points. Keep in mind that this is a team that really struggled down the stretch. I still think there's major concerns with their defense, which allowed the Pacers to score 100+ in all 4 games. Toronto didn't look great early on against a talented young Bucks team, but they closed out Milwaukee with 3 straight wins and I think they matchup really well with Cleveland. While the Cavs went 3-1 in the regular season and rested their stars in the only loss, all 3 of Cleveland's wins came by 4-poitns or less. I wouldn't be shocked if the Raptors won this game outright. Take Toronto!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

It's been well documented that the home team has the advantage in Game 7 and going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team has gone 28-16 (64%) against the spread when the series reaches the winner take all stage. I know the Clippers are without one of their stars in Blake Griffin, but as long as they have a healthy Chris Paul they are going to be a top level team. LA avoided elimination on the road in Game 6 and did so by shooting an impressive 49% from the field. Everyone loves to talk about Utah's defense, but the Clippers have held the Jazz to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last two games. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 5 games in this series and I don't see that trend coming to an end tonight. Atlanta won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double-digits at home and could have easily won all 3 games in Washington. I just think the Wizards are getting way to much respect here with the Hawks basically at a pick'em with the line less than 3 points. Atlanta did cover in a loss in Game 5 and that's worth noting, as Washington is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after failing to cover the number in their last game. Hawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks -

I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Raptors. The Bucks are facing elimination here and while they struggled to keep in close in Game 5 at Toronto, Milwaukee has proven they can hold their own against these Raptors and I look for them to not only win here but to do so in blowout fashion. Toronto simply shot lights out in Game 5, as they finished the game 57.7% from the field. I look for those shooting numbers to go way down on the road against a good Bucks defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans. Bucks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls +

I know Chicago just dropped both games at home without Rondo, but I still think the value is with the Bulls in Game 5. While Rondo won't return, I think Chicago found something that worked without him in game 4 with Isaiah Canaan and letting Butler take over more responsibility at the point. The Bulls also shot the ball poorly from long distance in both games at home and I look for them to connect on a few more with an offense that works. I also think Boston relies too much on Thomas to carry the load and I believe he's got to play exceptional for the Celtics to win here in a blowout. Bulls are 11-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Boston is a mere 5-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers -

I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite. Note that I cashed in on the Jazz in Game 4. Even without Blake Griffin, I still think Los Angeles has enough talent to win at home over a team like Utah. As long as the Clippers have a healthy Chris Paul, they will be a difficult out. Utah just isn't the same team on the road and let's also not forget Gordon Hayward is likely playing here at less than 100%. He's the one guy Utah needs to play well to win on the road. Los Angeles is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the Jazz are 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with Atlanta at basically a pick'em at home. This is one of those series where I wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance with the home team winning every game. Washington just isn't the same team on the road as they are at home and Atlanta isn't getting near enough respect here. The Hawks won Game 3 116-98 and dominated from the start with a 38-20 first quarter. Let's not forget Atlanta played extremely well in both losses in Washington and could have easily won both of those games. I also like the adjustments the Hawks have put in play as the series has progressed. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after they failed to cover. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Western Conference Play of the Month on Jazz -

I really like the value here with Utah at basically a pick'em at home with what feels like their season on the line. The Jazz have lost the last two after stealing Game 1 on the road. They shouldn't have lost Game 3 at home, as they led by 13 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th. As most of you know, that win came at a cost for the Clippers. Blake Griffin suffered what they originally thought to be a minor injury, but he's out for the playoffs.

It's not so much that I don't think the Clippers feel they can't win this series without Griffin, but the undeniable feeling that they have to have when it comes to their chances of getting past the Warriors in the next round. With the win in Game 3 LA got back home court advantage and that only adds to this being such a big letdown spot for the Clippers and such a massive game for the Jazz. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics

I was leaning towards taking Boston prior to the news that Rondo was going to be out for the Bulls, but that only strengthens this selection. Rondo might not be considered an elite player anymore, but he was playing like one in this series and is someone who is known for taking his game to another level in the postseason. Not having him on the floor is going to make it difficult for Chicago to get into a flow offensively. It will be a lot more of Butler and Wade playing 1-on-1.

At the same time, we are going to get everything the Celtics have to offer, as they know they can't afford to go down 3-0, especially with Chicago missing such a key player. Boston just wasn't themselves in the first two games and a lot of that was the unfortunate timing passing of Thomas' sister. I expect a much more focused Celtics team to take the floor and for them to win this one comfortably. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder +

I really like the value here with OKC as a big dog in Game 2 of this series. The Thunder lost Game 1 by a final of 87-118, despite only trailing by 5-points at the half. Just about everything that could go wrong in the 2nd half did. Not to mention Westbrook had an off night. I look for Westbrook to bounce back in a big way and for the Thunder as a team to make the proper adjustments to not only allow them to keep this game close, but potentially win outright. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Wizards -

I just don't think the Wizards are getting the respect they deserve at home against a team like Atlanta. Washington had one of the best home court advantages in the league this season, as they finished 30-11 at home during the regular season. Only the Spurs, Cavs and Warriors had fewer losses on their home floor. Washington won and covered in Game 1 and that was with them playing an awful 1st half. They figured out the Hawks defense in the 2nd half, scoring 69 points after intermission. I look for more of the same in Game 2 and wouldn't be surprised if the Wizards won this one going away. Take Washington!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics -

I have all the confidence in the Celtics evening up the series at 1-1 on their home floor and doing so in convincing fashion. I was all over the Bulls in Game 1, as I just thought it was a tough spot for Boston and their star Isaiah Thomas. I also don't think the Celtics gave Chicago the respect they deserved. I expect to see a completely different Boston team, as they simply can't afford to go down 2-0 with the series shifting to Chicago for Game 3.

Thomas actually played better than I expected given the circumstances in Game 1, but the rest of the Celtics didn't show up. On the flip side, the Bulls got a career game out of Bobby Portis, who scored 19 points off the bench on 8 of 10 shooting. I look for the Celtics bench to be the deciding factor here as this one could get ugly in a hurry if the Bulls struggle to find their outside shot. Take Boston!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers +

I was on the Pacers in their near win in Game 1 and will gladly back them at basically the same price in Game 2. I think Cleveland is good enough to win the east, but I don't think they are going to just flip a switch and dominate like a lot of people are expecting. Indiana believes they can win this series after their near victory in the opener and I believe will be the more desperate team here. Keep in mind that James was sensational in Game 1, scoring 32 points with 13 assists and 6 rebounds, yet they almost lost. As I've said multiple times now, the addition of Lance Stephenson was huge for the Pacers. They have been a different team since he joined the roster. I'll take the points to play it safe, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this series at 1-1. Take Indiana!

5* Thunder/Rockets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +

This is the series everyone is talking about, as we have the two MVP front-runners facing off with Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Houston has the better overall record, but I think they are getting way too much respect here. OKC isn't good enough to win it all, but this is definitely a series they could pull off. As we saw last year, the physical play of the postseason fits a lot of the Thunder's players and these two teams played 3 games that were decided by 3-points or less. I also think we are going to see a better OKC team in the playoffs, as they no longer have to worry about Westbrook and getting triple-doubles. They can just go out and play. My big concern with Houston is their defense and that they rely so much on the outside shot. Not saying you can't win being a jump shooting team, you just don't get near as many good looks in the playoffs. Take Oklahoma City!

4* Bulls/Celtics NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Bulls +

I like the value here with Chicago as a decently priced road dog in the series opener. We saw 3 of the 4 road teams cover yesterday, with two winning outright. The Bulls caught a big break with the Cavs blowing the No. 1 seed and I don't think it's out of the question they can win this series. Chicago really played well down the stretch and have been in playoff mode for weeks now trying to get to and hold on to that final playoff spot in the east. This is also a team that played it's best against the elite teams. Jimmy Butler of the Bulls has already made it clear he wants to guard Isaiah Thomas and I believe he's capable of slowing him down. Outside of Thomas the Celtics have a bunch of quality role players and I believe he's got to play great for them to make it far. I also think we are going to see a different Wade and Rondo for the Bulls, as the two veterans know how to take their game to the next level in the playoffs. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

A lot of people forget how good the Clippers were playing early in the year before they had to deal with some big time injuries to their star players. Los Angeles got healthy when it matters the most and started to look more and more like that team we saw in October and November down the stretch. Note they won their final 7 games to overtake the Jazz for the No. 4 spot. As much as I love this Utah team, I think the playoffs could prove to be a problem for them. More than anything, I see this as one of those series where the home team has the big edge and I also think the Clippers are the more talented team. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

Cleveland has made it pretty clear that they have no interest in playing out the regular season with their starters, even though the No. 1 seed is technically still in play. The Cavs will not have the services of LeBron James and expect some of other stars to sit out or have their minutes greatly restricted. Toronto doesn't have anything to play for, but they at least have the majority of their starts in play. Raptors have been a money maker against the top level teams like Cleveland, as they are 9-1 ATS this season when facing a team that's won between 60%-70% of their games. Take Toronto!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Mavs +

I know the Mavericks come into this game having lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall. Most will just assume they are tanking, but the schedule hasn't been great. With this being their final home game of the season and a big crowed expected with their honoring of Tony Romo, I expect Dallas to show up here and try to give their fans a victory. That's all it should take to not only win this game but to do so in blowout fashion. This is an awful spot for the Nuggets, who were just eliminated from playoff contention in their last game, which was the ridiculous game by Westbrook, where he hit the game-winner in the final seconds. Keep in mind this is a team that spent a good chunk of the season in the No. 8 spot and thought they were headed to the postseason. I don't see them being excited to play either of their final two games on the schedule, but if they were it would be tomorrow's rematch against OKC. Take Dallas!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bucks -

I really like the value here with the Bucks at home in this spot. Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot, but are still fighting for seeding. On the flip side of this, the Hornets attempt for a late season push to make the playoffs has come up short. They were just officially eliminated with their most recent loss at home to the Celtics. It's one thing to close out the season strong when you have been out of the playoff race for quite some time. It's extremely difficult for a team like Charlotte to get up for the final two games when they just had to come to terms with their season ending tomorrow in Atlanta. Their focus isn't on playing well, but the offseason. This could get ugly in a hurry. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Northwest Game of the Month on Nuggets -

I really like the value here with Denver at home against the Thunder. While Oklahoma City is locked into the No.6 seed and just playing for Westbrook to get one more triple-double, this is basically a playoff game for the Nuggets. Denver is currently 1.5-games back of the Blazers for the 8th and final spot and need to win this game to stay alive. It's also worth noting that Denver is not an easy place to play with tired legs and the Thunder figure to be a bit fatigued playing their 3rd straight away from home. Last time out OKC allowed the Suns to shoot 51.8% in a 21-point loss and the Nuggets come in having shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Take Denver!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bucks -

I really like this spot for Milwaukee. The Bucks have hit a bit of a bump in the road and are still trying to clinch a playoff spot, though they are currently 6th in the standings. This is a game they simply can't afford to lose and with the way the 76ers have been playing, they should be able to not only win, but win comfortably. Philadelphia has raised the white flag on the season after an impressive turnaround this year. The 76ers have basically all of their key players out for the season and simply don't have the talent left to be competitive. Philly has lost their last 5 games with the last 4 all by 8 or more, including an ugly 118-141 loss at home to the Nets. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks +

I think we are getting some great value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. I believe we are seeing an inflated line here with Cleveland having covered 3 of their last 4 and fresh off a dominant showing a 114-91 win at Boston on Wednesday. The Cavs played it off as if it was another game, but they clearly got up for that contest. I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here, as they are sitting pretty good with the No. 1 seed.

The Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but don't have the luxury of taking a night off right now. While Atlanta is currently 5th in the east standings, they are just 2-games ahead of 9th place Miami with 4 to play. It's also worth noting that the Hawks have played Cleveland well this season. They are 1-1 with a win at Cleveland and their loss coming by just 5-points at home. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers -

The addition of Lance Stephenson might not seem like much for the Pacers, but I think it's just what they needed to secure one of the final spots in the east playoff race. Stephenson gives this team a physical edge and constant energy that they were lacking. Indiana comes in off a comfortable 108-90 home win over the Raptors and I look for a similar outcome here against the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost 79-110 at OKC and are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe a big part of their struggles is the absence of rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon. The other big thing here is that the Pacers play like an elite team at home, where they are 27-12 on the season. Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 25-13 in their last 38 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets +

I really like the value here with Denver as a near double-digit dog against the Rockets. The Nuggets can move into a tie with the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west and they have to believe they can overtake Portland after they lost a big piece in Jusuf Nurkic. Houston is simply coasting into the postseason, as they are locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. While I expect the starters to play for the Rockets, there's just nothing to get motivated for in this one and I think there's going to be a minutes restriction on all the key rotation players. Take Denver! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Vegas Insider Top Play on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando as a near double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. Cleveland comes in off a thrilling 135-130 double-overtime win at home against the Pacers on Sunday. LeBron played 52 minutes and the other 4 starters all had 37 or more with 3 eclipsing 40 minutes. I believe this game against the Magic becomes a massive letdown spot for the Cavs with a massive road game on deck tomorrow night in Boston. I'm not saying the Magic win this game, but I don't see the kind of effort here from Cleveland to make this a blowout. It's also worth noting that Orlando has continued to play hard down the stretch. I would expect them to show up against the defending champs. Cavs are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last 2 at home and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a game where they won but failed to cover as a favorite. Take Orlando!

5* N Carolina/Gonzaga National Title NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels have burned me in each of their last two games, where they were in prime position to cover and failed to do so. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now. I pick North Carolina to win it all when the bracket came out, as I believed they were the most talented team in the field of 68. That's still the case and while Gonzaga has proved me wrong, let's not overlook the path for the Bulldogs to the title game. The best team they faced in terms of seeding was No. 4 West Virginia and they arguably should have lost that game. Gonzaga has great size down low and there bigs do a really good job of passing out of double-teams. North Carolina has elite size and won't have to help on the bigs, which I believe is going to make things really difficult for Gonzaga's offense. Take North Carolina!

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Wizards +

I really like the value here with Washington as a big road dog against the Warriors. Golden State has all but clinched the No. 1 seed in the west (3.5 games up on Spurs with 6 to play). There's just not a lot incentive for the Warriors to lay it all on the line in these final games to close out the season. I just don't see them blowing out a Wizards team that is fighting for position in the east. Washington is currently tied with Toronto for the No. 3 seed, 2.5 games back of Boston at No. 2 and 3-games back of Cleveland at No. 1. I wouldn't be shocked if the Wizards won this game outright. Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference. Take Washington!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

5* Final Four Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels, as I think they should be a much bigger favorite against the Ducks. North Carolina was just in the title game last year and the ability to fall back on that experience of the Final Four is going to pay off in a big way this time around. Not to mention the Tar Heels are the most talented team left in the field. Oregon was impressive in wins over Michigan and Kansas last weekend, but both of those teams were great matchups for the Ducks. The Wolverines and Jayhawks are both guard oriented. North Carolina has great guards, but their strength is their size and talent inside. I believe it's going to be too much for the Ducks to overcome in this one. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Pac-12 and 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as a favorite. Take North Carolina!

4* Final Four Over/Under Total Annihilator on S Carolina/Gonzaga UNDER

I'm expecting both offenses to struggle to find a rhythm in this one and for this game to finish well below mark the books have set. There's been plenty of talk about South Carolina's defense and rightfully so, but Gonzaga is every bit as good on the defensive side of the ball as the Gamecocks. The Bulldogs have been especially strong on the defensive side of the ball in the tournament. They held South Dakota State to 31%, Northwestern to 41%, West Virginia to 27% and Xavier to 36%. The last two opponents Gonzaga has held under 60 points and I look for them to do the same against South Carolina. UNDER is 18-8 in Gonzaga's last 26 non-conference games and 19-6 in the Gamecocks last 25 neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nuggets +

Denver is showing some great value here as a short road dog against the Hornets. The Nuggets have lost their last two games, but I still trust this team a lot more than I do Charlotte, who I'm not sure truly believes they are still in the mix for a playoff spot. While they are only 3-games back, they have just 7 games left and have to jump two teams just to get to the 8th spot. Prior to the 2-game skid Denver had been playing their best basketball and I just think they are clearly the more talented team in this one. It's also important to note that Charlotte is a tired team right now and they have struggled in this spot. The Hornets are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Nuggets on the other hand are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the east and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take Denver!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

I really like the value here with Toronto at home against the Pacers. The Raptors laid an egg last time out in a 106-110 home loss to the Hornets and I believe it has some people doubting them going into this game against Indiana. Prior to that loss Toronto had won 6 straight and were playing their best basketball since losing Lowry. I look for the Raptors to bounce back in a big way here, as they fight for the No. 3 spot in the east. I know the Pacers have a lot to play for as well, but they are a horrible road team and dealing with some injuries right now. Keep in mind these two teams played in Toronto recently on 3/19 and Toronto won 116-91. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Toronto!

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Blazers +

I really like the value here with Portland as a home dog against the Rockets in a nationally televised game on TNT. Houston comes into this game off a 106-113 loss at home to the Warriors, which was a game they definitely wanted to win. With a rematch on deck at Golden State tomorrow, I just don't see Houston being all that interested in this game. Keep in mind the Rockets are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. There's a chance that Houston could rest some players or limit their minutes. Portland on the other hand is in a battle for the No. 8 spot in the west, which they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Nuggets. Most importantly the Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 4 straight and 12-3 in their last 15 overall. Take Portland!

4* NIT Championship Game Vegas Insider on UNDER

It's hard to predict what teams are going to show up early in the NIT, but once you get the semifinals at Madison Square Garden, teams are going to show up and lay everything they have on the line. I look for defense to dominate in the championship game between the Yellow Jackets and Horned Frogs. Georgia Tech is an elite defensive team, who is extremely limited offensively, which is exactly what you want when backing the UNDER. TCU is no defensive slouch either and should have no problem keep the Yellow Jackets offense in check. I also think both offenses under perform given the stakes of this being the title game. Both teams played their semifinal game on Tuesday and the UNDER is 11-2 in the Yellow Jackets last 13 when playing with 1 or less days of rest. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Horned Frogs last 9 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Clippers -

Washington just clinched their first division title in almost 40 years with last night's 119-108 win over the Lakers. I look for a bit of a letdown here against the Clippers in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road. While the Wizards are primed for a flat performance, Los Angeles can't afford to be losing at home if they want to jump past the Jazz for the No. 4 spot in the west. Plenty of motivation here for the Clippers, who suffered an embarrassing home loss to the Kings last time out and will be out for revenge from a 7-point loss at Washington earlier this season. While the loss to Sacramento says otherwise, I believe the Clippers are close to returning to the form that we saw them open the season. Take Los Angeles!

4* Warriors/Spurs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Spurs -

I really like the value here with San Antonio laying a relatively short number at home against the Warriors. Golden State has been playing better of late without Durant, but are coming off a huge game last night at Houston and I just don't think they are going to have what it takes to win on the road against a Spurs team that wants to send a message to the Warriors that they aren't just going to take the west without a fight. San Antonio is a dominant 29-7 at home this season and have gone 36-4 over the last 40 meetings at home against the Warriors. Golden State is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 0 days of rest and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on the road against the 76ers. Atlanta snapped a 7-game losing streak with a win at home over the Suns last night and I look for them to carry over that momentum against Philadelphia. The 76ers also won last night at Brooklyn, but are playing short-handed right now and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity needed to win here on no rest. Note that these two teams have played 3 times this season and all 3 have been blowout wins for the Hawks. Atlanta won 104-72 at Philadelphia on 10/29, 117-96 at home on 11/12 and 110-93 at home on 1/21. Hawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-5 in their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Atlanta!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Rockets -

I believe the books are tipping their hand here with listing Houston as the favorite and I couldn't agree more. The Rockets are a legit threat to Golden State in the west, at least until the Warriors get back Durant and he starts playing at the same level as he was before his injury. Keep in mind that Houston already won at Golden State earlier this year 132-127 in 2OT and the Warriors had all their pieces in play for that one. As much as Golden State would like to win this one, I think they are going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to tomorrow's huge showdown at San Antonio. A game they need to win to make sure they get the No. 1 seed in the west. Warriors are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Houston!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pacers -

I really like the value here with Indiana as a relatively short home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pacers are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Indiana is 26-11 at home compared to 11-25 on the road. They simply aren't getting enough respect here at home against a struggling Minnesota team that has lost 6 straight and are just 10-25 on the road this season. Part of the problem for the Timberwolves is reality is setting in that they are going to miss out on the playoffs, which is a big disappointment. Indiana is currently 7th in the east, but are just 2.5 games from 9th. The Pacers can't afford to lose here and I look for a big time effort from them in this one. Take Indiana!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs +

Dallas is showing some great value here as a short home dog against the Thunder. Most are going to just expect Oklahoma City to bounce back after yesterday's loss to the Rockets, but I don't think that's going to be the case. The Thunder have to be a bit gassed here after yesterday's up-tempo matchup with Houston, which saw a combined 262 points scored. Dallas is the much more rested team, as they are in the midst of a 4-game homestand and haven't played back-to-back games since playing on 3/10 and 3/11. Dallas is also a much better team at home and the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road, where they are just 14-21 this season. Mavs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 200 to 209.5. Take Dallas!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Nuggets -

Denver is showing great value here as a short favorite at home against the Pelicans. The Nuggets have really been playing well of late and because they aren't a huge public team, the books are being slow to adjust their lines. Until the public gets on board with Denver, they should continue to be a great bet on team down the stretch. The Nuggets come in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming to the Rockets by a combined 5 points. New Orleans is starting to figure out how to play with Cousins, but it's still a work in progress and I just don't trust them on the road right now. Take Denver!

5* Elite Eight Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels at basically a pick'em at against the Wildcats. Kentucky is coming off a tough game against UCLA, which they had revenge against from an earlier loss. North Carolina on the other hand cruised to a 11-point when over Butler. The Tar Heels had the much easier Sweet 16 matchup and they are the ones playing with revenge, as they fell 100-103 to Kentucky earlier this season. When North Carolina plays like they have been in the tournament, they are without a doubt in my mind the best team in the country. The Tar Heels have the speed and athleticism at the guard positions to limit Fox and Monk for the Wildcats and without those two there's not a lot for Kentucky to go with. Take North Carolina!

4* Oregon/Kansas Elite Eight Annihilator on Oregon +

I really like the value here with the Ducks as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks. Kansas is coming off a 98-66 blowout win over Purdue in the Sweet 16 and I believe that's playing into this number being higher than it should be. The big thing to keep in mind, is that the Boilermakers were a perfect matchup for Kansas. Purdue didn't have the speed or athleticism to hang with the Jayhawks for 40 minutes. Oregon definitely does and the Ducks have now proven they can't be taken lightly, even with the big injury to Boucher. Not only do I think the Ducks keep this closer than the number, but I give them a really good shot at winning this game outright. Take Oregon!

5* Xavier/Gonzaga Elite Eight Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER

I really like the value here on the total and for Xavier and Gonzaga to go over the mark here set by the books. We haven't seen the best of what the Bulldogs offense can bring to the table. They came out flat in their opener against South Dakota State and ended up scoring just 66 points, but note they had 40 in the 2nd half. They put up 79 on a very good Northwestern defense in the Round of 32, but then were held to just 61 by an even better West Virginia defense, which also took them out of their flow with the press. I look for Gonzaga's offense to explode here against the Musketeers, who are far from an elite defensive team. At the same, I look for Xavier's offense to stay hot and score enough here to push this well over the number. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers -

I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a relatively short home favorite against the Jazz. This is a huge game in terms of playoff seeding. These two teams are fighting for the 4th spot in the west, which ensures home court in the first round of the playoffs. Right now the Jazz hold a 1.5-game edge, so it's that much more important for the Clippers to hold serve here at home. These two teams did just play in Utah on 3/13, which the Jazz won 114-108. Home court is huge for both teams and while LA lost last time out at Dallas, they have been looking more and more like the team that was so dominant to start the season. Utah is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Los Angeles!

4* Sweet 16 Late Night Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Florida UNDER

I don't think there's much to this one. Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive side of the ball and a bit limited offensively. Not to mention both are accustomed to playing a grind it out type of game. Florida held Virginia to a mere 39 points in their last game, while Wisconsin limited No. 1 overall seed Villanova to just 62. That was with both teams having just one-day to prepare for the opposition. Each has now had 5 days to prepare for the opponent and I look for these two to struggle to eclipse 120 let along 130. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Pelicans +

The Rockets find themselves in a difficult spot to close out the season. Houston is all but locked into the No. 3 spot in the west, as they are 6-games back of the Spurs and 5.5 in front of the Jazz. This makes it easy for the Rockets to limit minutes and make sure they are in prime form going into the playoffs. I also believe it will have them picking and choosing when to bring a max effort. I know Houston just lost to New Orleans, but I don't think they get up for this one, with much bigger games on deck against the likes of the Thunder and Warriors (play GS twice in their next 5 games). Keep in mind the Rockets can still win here and not cover. The Pelicans are playing for the playoff lives and have been playing much better of late. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER

The Bucks have been locking down opponents on the defensive side of the floor lately. Milwaukee has allowed more than 103 points just twice in their last 12 games and both of those came on the road with one of them being the Warriors. They should have no problem keeping the Hawks in check at home. Atlanta continues to play without two of their most important pieces in Millsap and Bazemore. The Hawks have scored 100 or less in 5 straight games. Atlanta can't keep messing around. They are sitting in 5th place in the east, but just 3.5 games from being in 9th. I look for both teams to bring the intensity on defense and keep this well below the number. UNDER is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-2 in their last 16 off a road loss. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Bucks last 28 games in the month of March and 9-1 in their last 10 when facing a team that scored 100 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on S Carolina/Baylor UNDER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well under the mark set by the books. South Carolina is an excellent defensive team. Yes, they gave up 81 points to Duke in the Round of 32, but they held the Blue Devils to a mere 41.5% shooting percentage. Duke plays at a much faster tempo than Baylor and has a lot better offensive players. Baylor has put up 91 and 82 in their first two tournament games, but that's a bit out of character for a team that only averages 73.5 and didn't score 80 or more in a single Big 12 game. Not to mention the Bears are a dominant defensive team as well, as they only give up 63.5 ppg. Add in the pressure and the fact that neither of these teams exactly no how to handle it and I look for both teams to struggle offensively. Take the UNDER 135!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pistons -

The Pistons come into this game off an ugly 22-point loss at Chicago and have lost 5 of their last 6 overall. The key here is that Detroit is still right in the thick of things for the final playoff spot in the east. I look for the Pistons to bounce back in a big way here against the Magic. Orlando says they are still playing to win, but there's just no way they bring the same intensity as Detroit. The Magic are also a horrible home team, as they have gone just 13-23 on their home floor this season. Last time out Orlando lost 102-109 at home to division rival Charlotte and are 2-13 ATS off a division game and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 off a loss to a division opponent. Pistons are 27-14 ATS in their last 41 off an upset loss as a favorite and 35-14 when revenging a loss as a home favorite of a 7 or more. Take Detroit!

4* NBA Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavericks +

I like the value here with Dallas as a home dog against the Clippers. Los Angeles has won 3 straight, but let's not get too carried away. They blew out the Cavs with Cleveland resting their stars, took out the Knicks at home and crushed a tanking Lakers team on the road. At the same time, Dallas is getting zero love after an ugly 87-112 loss at home to the Warriors. I look for the Mavs to bounce back here and catch the Clippers looking ahead to Saturday's big showdown at home against the Jazz, who they are chasing for the No. 4 seed in the west. LA is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after a win by 20 or more over a division rival. Mavs on the other hand are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 off a loss by 10 points or more. Take Dallas!

5* Sweet 16 NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia +

The public is going to be all over No. 1 seed Gonzaga at this price, but I believe the books have set a nice trap here and know that the Mountaineers are the better team here. I've said this multiple times now. The Bulldogs are a really good team, I'm just not buying they would be a No. 1 seed if they played in a Power 5 conference. West Virginia is more than capable of taking down Gonzaga. The Mountaineers press attack is extremely difficult to prepare for, even when you have had a few days to prepare for it. Until you see it in action, you really don't know what to expect. West Virginia's doesn't have a superstar, but are strong from top to bottom. What also gets overlooked is that while it's know they force a lot of turnovers, people don't realize how well they take care of the basketball and attack the offensive glass. I'll take the points, but I'm calling for the Mountaineers to win outright. Take Gonzaga!

4* Sweet 16 ATS Annihilator on Michigan -

The Wolverines have got something special going right now and I just don't see it coming to an end just yet. Oregon is a talented team, but was very fortunate to get past No. 11 Rhode Island in their last game. I believe that's a clear sign that this is not the same Ducks team that was so good during Pac-12 play. The loss of star big man Chris Boucher has really taken Oregon down a level. There's no question that Michigan is playing their best basketball of the season and the confidence and belief in this team is at an all-time high. Derrick Walton has been the go to guy, but there's a lot more weapons than just him. I look for the Wolverines to keep it rolling with anther hard fought win. Take Michigan -1!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Hornets -

I like the value here with Charlotte against the Magic. The Hornets are 3.5-games out of the 8th and final spot in the east an every game from here on out is a must win. They come into this matchup off back-to-back wins. The most recent a 15-point beat down of the Hawks. Orlando has won their last two, but it's come against the Suns and 76ers. The Magic say they are playing out the season hard, but there's simply no way they are going to bring the same intensity as a team fighting for a playoff spot. The Hornets have owned Orlando this season. They have won all 3 meetings by at least 19 points, including a 120-101 win at Orlando as a similar 4.5-point favorite. Take Charlotte!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Blazers -

I really like the value here with the Blazers as a relatively short home favorite against the Bucks. Portland is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and are just 1/2-game back of the Nuggets for the final playoff spot in the west. The Blazers have won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. Damian Lillard is playing out of his mind right now, averaging 35.3 ppg over their last 4 and 31.2 ppg since the All-Star break. Milwaukee has also been playing well of late, as they are 8-2 in their last 10, but this is their 5th straight game on the road and last time out was against the Warriors. Portland is a difficult place to win when the Blazers have it going like they do right now. Bucks are 3-7 ATS last 10 vs west and 3-7 ATS last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Portland!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER!

4* NIT Situational ATS Annihilator on Ole Miss -

The ACC hasn't lived up to the hype in postseason play and I look for the Rebels to put an end to Georgia Tech's season tonight in relatively easy fashion. The Yellow Jackets won their first two NIT games in impressive fashion, but both of those came at home. Georgia Tech is not the same team away from home, as they are a mere 2-11 on the road this season. Ole Miss has won back-to-back road games at Monmouth and Syracuse and I believe are one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take Ole Miss!

4* NIT Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Illinois -

I look for the Fighting Illini to have no problem putting away Boise State by double-digits at home. Illinois came out inspired in their NIT opener, crushing a talented Valpo team 82-57 as a 9-point favorite. I look for a similar type of effort here against the Broncos. Boise State pulled off a big upset in their opener, defeating Utah 73-68 as a 12-point dog. The thing is, the Utes didn't show up to play. The Fighting Illini have thrived in this spot, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning on average by more than 16 ppg. Take Illinois!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets +

These two teams just played in Denver on Saturday and the Rockets pulled out a 109-105 win as a mere 2-point favorite. Now they return to Houston to play again and this time the Rockets are laying close to double-digits. I think the value here is clearly with the Nuggets, who I believe are going to be the more motivated team. Not only is Denver out for revenge, but they are trying to hold on to the No. 8 spot in the west. Houston on the other hand doesn't have a ton of motivation here. The Rockets are pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed in the west, as they are 5.5-games back of the Spurs and 5 games ahead of Utah with just 12 games to play. Not to mention This is the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights and will get a full 3-days off after this contest. Take Denver!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic -

I really like the value here with Orlando as a short home favorite against the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in off a 105-99 win over the Celtics yesterday and have covered 6 straight. Most will be looking to back them here, but I see this as a major flat spot for the 76ers off that big win over Boston, playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 days overall. Orlando has continued to play hard despite having nothing to play for and are fresh off a 109-103 win at Phoenix. This is clearly a much better 76ers team than previous seasons, but they are just 9-24 on the road and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Pacers/Raptors UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Raptors. Indiana comes in having held each of their last 5 opponents under 100 points and failed to eclipse the 100 point mark in 3 of their last 4. Their last game saw just 175 combined points and the game before that was just 168. Toronto has held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 80 or points or less and combined for a mere 162 in their last game at Detroit. Toronto's just not the same offensive team without Lowry and have to rely more on their defense. UNDER is 24-7 in the Raptors last 31 off an upset win and 16-5 in the Pacers last 21 overall. Take the UNDER!

4* Michigan St/Kansas Midwest ATS Annihilator on Michigan St +

The Spartans are showing great value here against the Jayhawks. We saw a Big Ten team (Wisconsin) pull off a similar upset yesterday and I think Michigan State is more than capable of taking out Kansas. This is a much better Spartans team than the one that struggled to compete against that brutal schedule they played in non-conference. As is the case every year, Izzo has Michigan State peaking at the right time. The biggest key here is that the Spartans have the disciple and talent to make things tough on Kansas' high-powered offense and take them out of their game. Note that the Spartans are 62-37 ATS on the road against elite teams that have won 80% or more of their games and 24-9 in their last 33 when playing only their 2nd game in a 8 day stretch. Take Michigan State!

5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Kentucky -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short favorite against the Shockers. Wichita State is a lot better than their No. 10 seed, but unfortunately for them the poor seeding by the committee has them playing an elite Kentucky team in the 2nd round. The Wildcats were once again the class of the SEC and once the games started meaning a little more this team really came alive. I just think Kentucky is head and shoulders above Wichita State in terms of talent in this one. The Shockers three toughest games in non-conference were against Louisville (lost by 10) Michigan State (lost by 5) and Oklahoma State (lost by 23). Note the game against the Spartans was back when Michigan State was struggling to compete against the elite teams. The Wildcats aree better than all of those teams and I expect them to win here by double-digits. Take Kentucky!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle here between these two Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs come in allowing just 98.5 ppg which is second in the league behind the Jazz. Memphis isn't far behind, as they rank 4th at 100.4 ppg and are even stronger at home, where they allow a mere 97.2 ppg. UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. It's also 9-3 in the Grizzlies last 12 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 12-4 in the Spurs last 16 after they scored 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER!

5* Round of 32 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying what I feel is a very short number against the Gaels. Arizona made easy work of North Dakota in their opener, hanging 100 points on the Fighting Hawks. St. Mary's was impressive in their win over VCU, but lets not carried away with a win over a A-10 team. Arizona is on a whole different level and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. When the Gaels have had to face an elite team like the Wildcats (Gonzaga), they have struggled to keep it competitive and I see this being no different. All 3 of their losses to Gonzaga were by double-digits. Take Arizona!

4* Round of 32 Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame +

I really like the value here with the Fighting Irish as a dog against the Mountaineers. The perception here is that the Mountaineers have the edge with Note Dame not having a lot of time to prepare for the non-stop press of West Virginia. The thing is, the biggest key to breaking a press is guard play and the Irish are strong in the backcourt and a veteran team that understands the importance of taking care of the basketball. The Irish haven't turned it over more than 9 times in 9 straight games. Without getting easy baskets via the press and turnovers, this West Virginia team is pretty average. The Mountaineers are a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after 15+ games against a team that averages 14 or less turnovers/game. Take Notre Dame!

4* Late Night March Madness ATS No Brainer on Kentucky - 

I got no problem laying this big number on the Wildcats. I know Kentucky is a No. 2 seed, but I just don't feel this team is getting near the respect they should be getting. I believe a lot of that has to do with so much attention in the South Region on UNC and UCLA, as well as the poor seeding of Wichita State. This Wildcats team is the real deal and really turned it on down the stretch and I expect them to be even better in the tournament. Northern Kentucky has no business being on the same floor as them. The Norse lost by 15 to Illinois and 31 to West Virginia in non-conference play (only two power 5 teams they played). I think this one gets ugly in a hurry and the Wildcats potentially have this number covered by halftime. Take Kentucky!

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Rockets -

I like the value here with Houston against the Pelicans. These two teams met back in New Orleans' first game with newly acquired big man DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets won that game by 30-points (129-99) at New Orleans. While I don't expect that big of a blowout this time around, I look for Houston to have no problem winning here by more than 5 points. The Rockets are playing at an elite level offensively right now and the big difference here is that Pelicans aren't a great 3-point shooting team and will for the most part be trading 2s for 3s. Houston is also the much fresher team here. The Rockets are playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while New Orleans is lacing them up for the 3rd time in 4 days. Take Houston!

4* NCAA Tourn ATS Heavy Hitter on Rhode Island Pick'em

The fact that you have a pick'em in a 6 vs 11 really tells you all you need to know here. We saw the same thing yesterday with Xavier and Maryland and the 11-seeded Musketeers took that one. I see this one playing out similar, as this Rhode Island team is the real deal. The Rams knocked off Cincinnati and only lost to Duke by 10 in non-conference play. Plus they are playing even better right now than they were to start the year. Creighton is just not the same team without point guard Mo Watson. The Bluejays at one point were 18-1 with their only loss to Villanova. They are just 7-8 in their last 15 since. Take Rhode Island!

5* NCAA Tourn First Round Game of the Year on USC +

The Trojans pulled off a remarkable comeback in their play-in game on Wednesday against Providence and that's the kind of win that really gives a team the belief and confidence they go do something special. I also love that USC's best player, Boatwright, had a monster game with 24-points. You need your best players playing their best to pull off an upset like this. However, I'm not really sure it would be that big of an upset. USC has already beat SMU once this season.

I know the Mustangs record is impressive and they come in on a huge winning streak, but outside of Cincinnati the AAC is a joke and even the Bearcats aren't an elite team, which is why SMU is 6 seed and not a 2 or 3. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and think there's a really good chance the Trojans win here outright. Take USC!

4* Big Dance Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Seton Hall +

I really like the Value here with the Pirates as a dog against the Razorbacks. Seton Hall comes into the tournament playing their best basketball of the season. The Pirates have won 5 of 6 with the only loss being a mere 2-point defeat to Villanova in the Big East Tournament. I know Arkansas has been on a decent run of their own, but outside of Kentucky and Florida the SEC is very weak and the Razorbacks did a nice job feeding on the bottom feeders in the conference to bolster their resume. Keep in mind Arkansas lost by 14 to Minnesota early in the year and by 28 to Oklahoma State in the middle of their SEC schedule. I think the wrong team is favored in this one, but I'm okay with it, as the Pirates are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 as a dog. Take Seton Hall!

5* NCAA Tourn First Round NO LIMT Top Play on Iowa State -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying single-digits against the Wolf Pack. Nevada gets a lot of love for their showing in the Mountain West, but I don't think it's justified. The Wolf Pack played a soft non-conference schedule. The best team the played was St Mary's and they lost by 18. Iowa State is arguably going to be the best team they have played this season and the Cyclones come into the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. They won the Big 12 tournament and finished 9-1 over their last 10. With so much attention going to Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia, a lot of people overlook how good this ISU team is. They have a ton of experience and one of the elite point guards in the country in senior Monte Morris.

Iowa State can knock down the 3-point shot with the best of them and that's worth noting as Nevada is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team that makes 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Cyclones are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after winning 3 of their last 4. Take Iowa State!

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Hawks -

I really like the value here with Atlanta as a short home favorite against the Grizzlies. We should get a great effort here from the Hawks, who are off a loss at San Antonio and playing with a full 2 days of rest. Memphis on the other hand is in a really tough spot, as they are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Not to mention they have a huge game against the Spurs on deck this Saturday. Grizzlies are just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record, a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when playing a marginal winning team (Winning Pct between 51% to 60%) and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. Take Atlanta!

4* West Region Vegas Oddsmakers Error on Xavier +

I think the Big Ten isn't getting enough respect as a whole, but Maryland is one team I'm not sold on. The Terps have had a very fortunate run in close games and were not the same team down the stretch, going just 4-6 in their final 10 games. I know Xavier hit a rough patch as well later in the season, but I like how they responded in the Big East Tournament. I don't think they go far without Edmond Sumner, but after looking at this game closely I think they are the better team here and will find a way to win behind the play of Trevon Bluiett, who led the team in scoring at 18.1 ppg.

Musketeers have a history of exceeding expectations in the Big Dance, as they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games with a total of 140 to 149.5. Take Xavier!

4* Big Dance Early Bird ATS Annihilator on UNC-Wilmington +

I really like the value here with UNC-Wilmington against the Cavaliers. This is not the same Virginia team that we have seen in recent years coming into the tournament. Sure they are still really good on the defensive side of the ball, but the offensive struggles are for real. The Seahawks aren't going to be intimidated by Virginia's defense, as they come in averaging 85.2 ppg on 48% shooting. They are especially dangerous from deep, as they average 10 made 3-pointers a game. I'm calling for Wilmington to get hot early and put Virginia on their heels. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Seahawks won this game outright. Note they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a neutral site underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take UNC-Wilmington!

4* NCAA Early Bird Over/Under Total No Brainer on Princeton/Notre Dame UNDER 

I don't see either team being able to have a ton of success offensively in this one. I know this isn't the same Princeton style of play from years past, but the Tigers still like to slow it down and limit the opposing teams possessions. Princeton only gives up 61.5 ppg. Notre Dame is a team that can play fast or slow, as they had no choice but to speed it up in some of their ACC games. With that said, the Irish would prefer to play at a slower tempo. Throw in this being a neutral setting and the first game off the board, I just think it's going to be a bit sloppy.

Dating back to 1997 the UNDER is 60% in Notre Dame's road games when facing a team that allows 64 point or fewer. UNDER is also 12-2 in the Irish's last 14 NCAA Tournament games when listed as the favorite. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Clippers UNDER

Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position and will be extra motivated after losing last time out. Milwaukee was embarrassed in a 93-113 defeat at Memphis, while the Clippers lost at Utah 108-114. Note that prior to giving up 113 to the Grizzlies, the Bucks had held each of their last 5 to 100 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to 102 or fewer. I expect a much more locked in Milwaukee team in this one on defense. LA is also a team that can play defense and they have been trending much better on that side of the ball.

UNDER is 24-9 in the Clippers last 33 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 13-3 in their last 16 home games in the month of March, 22-9 in their last 31 home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after 3 straight games where they shot 47% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!

5* First Round NIT Game of the Year on Iowa -

I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in against South Dakota. Iowa is young team that really showed a lot of positive signs towards the end of the season. They ended up getting beat badly in the Big Ten Tournament by Indiana and I think it's going to have them coming out with a chip on their shoulder at home against the Coyotes. Iowa was a much better team at home and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawkeyes ended up winning the NIT.

This isn't just a play on Iowa. South Dakota is in a brutal spot here having to try to emotionally get up for this game after coming so close to the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes blew a double-digit half-time lead and lost on a last second shot to in-state rival South Dakota State in the Summit League Championship Game. Even if South Dakota State came in 100% locked in, I still think they would struggle to keep this close. Note they lost by 27 to Houston, 12 to Nebraska and by 37 to Gonzaga in non-conference play. Take Iowa!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Jazz -

I really like the value here with Utah as a short road favorite against the Pistons. The Jazz come in having won 5 of their last 6 and are sitting in 4th place in the Western Conference. Utah simply doesn't get the respect or attention they deserve. This team is fighting to hold off the Clippers for the No. 4 spot and I just don't see them letting down until it's secured the rest of the way. The Jazz should have no problem taking care of business against a Pistons team that is playing on no rest after an ugly 96-128 loss at Cleveland last night.

Pistons are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against a team with a winning record. It's also worth noting the Jazz had their way with Detroit in the earlier meeting this season, winning 110-77. Take Utah!

4* NIT No Doubt ATS Annihilator on CS Bakersfield +

I really like the value here with the Roadrunners as a double-digit dog against the Golden Bears. Bakersfield won the WAC this year and while they suffered a heartbreaking loss in the title game against  New Mexico State, I believe this team is going to show up here against the likes of Cal. Two non-conference games for the Roadrunners that stand out were a mere 12-point loss at Arizona and just a 6-point defeat at SMU. This team isn't just capable of hanging in there with the Golden Bears, but winning this game outright. Keep in mind that this is not the tournament Cal expected to be in. On top of that, one of their best players in Jabari Bird is questionable and there's talk already starting about head coach Cuonzo Martin leaving town. Take CS Bakersfield!

4* NIT Situational Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +

Indiana is the higher seed, which I think is playing into this line, but it's Georgia Tech that's the home team. That's a big time factor, as the Hoosiers are just 4-11 on the road this season. I know Georgia Tech was on the bubble later in the year than Indiana, but the Hoosiers came into the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. To not be playing in the NCAA Tournament is a major disappointment. As for the Yellow Jackets, not getting to the tournament hurts, but this team wasn't even suppose to be a factor in the ACC this year. Head coach Josh Pastner has the program excited about what's to come and I look for this team to try and start building for next year with a strong showing in the NIT. Keep in mind that the Yellow Jackets are 15-4 at home with wins over the likes of Notre Dame, FSU, and North Carolina. Take Georgia Tech!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks +

New York is showing great value here as a short home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana is just 11-22 on the road and while the Knicks have been a disappointment they shouldn't be a dog here. The Pacers come in off a 102-98 home win over the Heat, which actually only adds more value to the Knicks, as Indiana is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after a win. Pacers are also a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. New York's last game was against the Nets and the Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing a division opponent in their previous game. Take New York!

5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game.

UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Wolves -

I really like the value here with Minnesota as a short home favorite against the Wizards. Minnesota has quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they come in 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. I know Washington has been playing well also, but this is a brutal spot for the Wizards. It's the 5th and final game of a 5-game road trip. It's their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7. Keep in mind that each of their last two games at Portland and Sacramento went to OT. Washington is running on fumes and are going to struggle to bring the intensity to this one, especially knowing they get to head home as soon as this one is over.

Wizards are just 15-30 ATS in their last 45 off 2 or more consecutive road wins and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. T-Wolves are 5-0 ATS last 5 off a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA Vegas ATS Line Mistake on Raptors -

I like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite against the Mavericks. Dallas is getting a lot of respect from the books right now, as they are 6-2 over their last 8 games. What is getting overlooked is all 6 of those wins came at home as the Mavs have played 7 of their last 8 at home. Dallas is a mere 8-22 on the road this season. I know the Raptors have struggled of late without Lowry, but they just played 5 straight on the road. Toronto is 21-11 at home. I expect a big time effort here from the Raptors, as they are fighting for playoff position in the east and will be highly motivated off an ugly 89-104 loss at Miami last time out.

Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days, while the Mavs are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing their previous 3 games at home and 11-24 ATS in their last 35 road games after wining 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Toronto!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pacers -

I really like the value here with the Pacers as a short home favorite against the Heat. Both teams played yesterday. Miami won and covered at home against the Raptors, while Indiana lost by 14 at Milwaukee. I look for the Pacers to be the much more motivated team in this one and the big key here is that Indiana is a completely different team at home compared to on the road. The Pacers are 22-10 at home compared to 11-22 on the road. Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games on Sunday. Take Indiana! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Wisconsin -

I really like the value here with the Badgers at basically a pick'em here against the Wolverines. Michigan is a great story with what they have done, but Wisconsin is playing their best basketball when it matters the most and are the much more rested team here. Michigan has done an amazing job riding the adrenaline of getting to the title game, but now that they have made it, I look for them to come out a bit flat. After that brutal stretch that saw them lose 5 of 6 late in the season, Wisconsin knows they desperately need to keep the momentum going if they want to make a run in the NCAA tournament. Badgers have rolled in each of their 2 games in the Big Ten tournament and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more. Take Wisconsin!  

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers -

I really like the value here with the Blazers as a relatively short home favorite against the Wizards. This is a big time flat spot for Washington, who will be playing on no rest after an overtime win last night against the Kings. A game that saw both Wall and Beal log over 40 minutes. Note this is also the Wizards 4th game in 5 nights. I just don't see the Wizards having the energy to match the Blazers in this one. Portland has really been playing well of late. The Blazers enter having won 4 straight. Washington is just 14-30 ATS in their last 54 after 2 or more consecutive road wins and the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against  a team that's won more than 60% of their games Take Portland! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Heat - 

The Heat are showing great value here as a short home favorite against the Raptors. Toronto is in a very bad spot here. The Raptors are playing their 5th and final game of their road trip and have to so on no rest, as they played in Atlanta last night. This is a huge flat spot for a Toronto team that is missing one of it's best players. At the same time, Miami continues to play like one of the best teams in the east. They just aren't getting treated like it because of their poor overall record. I look for Miami to come out and lay a beating on the Raptors in this one. Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a home win and 31-18 ATS in their last 49 when revenging a same season loss. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin - 

I really like the Badgers here as a short favorite against the Wildcats. Wisconsin has really turned it on after a miserable stretch late in the regular season and I look for them to keep it going against Northwestern. Wisconsin is going to be the much fresher team here, as yesterday's game was their first of the tournament, while the Wildcats are getting ready to play their 3rd game in 3 days. These two teams did meet up in the regular season, which Northwestern won at Wisconsin. That actually sets up a very profitable system. Favorites playing with revenge from a loss a home favorite of 7 or more are 76-44 (63%) against the spread when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. Take Wisconsin! 

4* Warriors/Wolves NBATV Heavy Hitter on UNDER 

The injury to Durant combined with Curry just not playing at the same level as the past two years has the Warriors offense in a funk. Golden State is averaging just 102.4 ppg over their last 5 and that's well below their season mark of 117.0 ppg. They now face a Minnesota team that is locking down on the defensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves have allowed 97 or fewer points in 4 straight. While the offense has struggled, Golden State's defense has picked up the pace and they are really playing well on that side of the ball. I look for both offenses to struggle here. We know we are going to get a max effort from the Timberwolves at home in a game being televised on NBATV and the Warriors aren't going to take this one lightly off a loss. UNDER is 9-1 in the Warriors last 10 road games after 5 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less and 13-5 in their last 18 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER!