5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER 

I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all. 

Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last. 

The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Rockets/Warriors ATS NO-BRAINER on Rockets +

I like the value here with Houston against the spread in Game 3. After an embarrassing 13-point loss at home in Game 1, the Rockets responded with an impressive 127-105 win in Game 2 to even it up at 1-1. Houston looked like a completely different team in Game 2 and I think they can carry over that to Game 3. With that said, this is just too good a price to pass up on an elite team like the Rockets. All we basically need is for Houston to just keep the game within single-digits. 

The biggest thing I like that the Rockets are doing is attacking Steph Curry on offense. Curry isn't a horrible defender, but it's definitely not his strength. By making him work a little more on defense, it can take him out of his rhythm offensively and that's been the case so far in the series, as he's made just two 3-point shots (13 attempts). If they can continue to keep Curry in check on the road, they not only will have a great shot at covering, but winning this game outright. Take Houston! 

4* NBA Playoffs Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 

I like the value here with UNDER in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Each of the first two games finished below the total set by the books. I'm expecting another low-scoring contest with Cleveland's backs against the wall. 

The Cavs are down 0-2 and are in a do-or-die scenario. That means we are going to get the very best Cleveland has to offer on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, Boston's offense hasn't been nearly as efficient on the road as it has at home in the postseason. 

I also don't see Cleveland going off here. The Celtics have put together a great game-plan on how to defend the Cavs. They held them to 83 in Game 1 with a sub-par game from James and still held them to 94 in Game 2 with LeBron going off for 42 points and recording a triple-double. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* Warriors/Rockets NBA Playoffs ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -

I like the value here with Houston at basically a pick'em to take Game 2 and even up the series. This is basically a do or die situation for the Rockets. A loss here and the series is all but over with them down 0-2 (would have to win 4 of the last 5 games). I still think Houston has the talent and pieces in place to not just win a game or two, but take the series. 

Turnovers really plagued them in Game 1, as well as some missed defensive assignments. Both of those things can be corrected. I also think we could see the Rockets shoot a little better from long-distance in Game 2. If the Warriors don't show up with the same intensity as Houston and are content with the split, this thing could get ugly. Much like Game 3 of the Warriors' previous series against the Pelicans, where they lost by 19 after holding a 2-0 series lead. Either way, I like the Rockets to win this game. Take Houston! 

3* Cavs/Celtics NBA Playoffs ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +

It couldn't have went much worse for Cleveland in Game 1. The Cavs dug themselves an early hole and simply couldn't overcome their poor shooting. Cleveland shot just 36% from the field and it was far from the box score we have grown expected to seeing from LeBron James. 

I expect a much more focused and motivated Cavs team in Game 2. I'm also willing to bet they shoot much better than the 4 for 26 from 3-point distance and James bounces back in a big way from that poor showing in Game 1. James now has a great understanding on how Boston is trying to defend him and will make the proper adjustments. As for the other guys, they got open looks, they just didn't execute. The Cavs are the better team and the value is with them here. Take Cleveland! 

4* NBA Playoffs 'Rockets/Warriors' Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

You can check my free pick for who I would lean towards for the spread, but I believe the real value in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is with the total. I think the books have set the bar way too high for this one. 

All the media talks about is the star power both of these teams have and how great both sides are on the offensive end of the floor. What people don't realize is just how good these two teams are defensively. These two are ranked 1-2 in defensive efficiency in the postseason and there's no question that both are going to be locked in on that side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-1 this season in Rockets' games when they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. UNDER is also 5-1 in Houston's last 6 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. UNDER is 21-8-1 in the Warriors last 30 after giving up 100 or more in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs 'Cavs/Celtics' ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +

I like the value here with Cleveland at basically a pick'em in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here to the Celtics and their impressive dismantling of the 76ers, in a series most thought they would lose. I think a lot of that was the inexperience of Philadelphia, as well as great coaching by Brad Stevens. 

As good as Stevens is, I just don't think there's a gameplan out there to slow down LeBron James right now and with the way the supporting cast is playing it's that much harder to slow this Cavs team down. Keep in mind that James has owned Stevens' led teams in the past and I just have a hard time seeing the Celtics making a series of this. 

Another thing that strongly suggest an overreaction here with the line. Boston was a 4.5-point home dog in Game 1 of their series with the 76ers. There's no reason the Cavs shouldn't be favored by at least that here. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Playoffs ATS ANNIHILATOR on Celtics -

I like the value here with Boston at basically a pick'em at home against the 76ers in Game 5. Not a big shocker to see Philadelphia avoid getting swept with Game 4 on their home court. As much as the public wants the 76ers to win this series, Boston has proven to be the better team. 

Too much attention is paid to the Celtics injuries and them not having Irving or Hayward. There's still a ton of talent on this roster and they are deep across the board. The other thing they have that doesn't get the respect it deserves is head coach Brad Stevens. He's the reason Boston is 1-win away from the Eastern Conference Finals despite missing it's two best players. The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 at home in the postseason and I look for them to remain perfect tonight. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Playoffs ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pelicans +

I like the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Warriors in Game 5 on Tuesday. I'm not expecting the Pelicans to win this game outright on the road, but I do think they are going to give Golden State all they can handle. 

I wasn't all that surprised to see Game 4 turn out the way it did. You just knew the Warriors were going to come out looking to make a statement after how they were embarrassed in a 19-point loss in Game 3. Part of that lopsided result was the effort of Golden State. The other was the Pelicans couldn't buy a basket. New Orleans shot just 36.4% from the field. I look for a few more shots to fall and that should be more than enough to keep the Pelicans within striking distance. Keep in mind they only lost by 5 at Golden State in Game 2 after after a blowout loss in Game 1. Take New Orleans! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavs UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Raptors and Cavs on Monday. After flying over the total in the first two games in Toronto, the two teams combined for just 208 points and finished well below the mark of 214 in Game 3. The deeper the series goes the better the defense gets for both sides, as they know what the other team is trying to do offensively. 

Throw in this being a big letdown spot for Cleveland with a commanding 3-0 lead and how big this game is for the Raptors, I think we are going to see the lowest-scoring game of the series so far. UNDER is now 5-1 in the Cavs last 6 at home and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 away from home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +

I like the value here with Toronto to keep this within the number and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. I think Cleveland has all the confidence that they can win this series no matter the outcome tonight and it wouldn't be a huge shock to see the Cavs suffer a bit of a letdown here. Either way it will be hard for them to match the intensity of the Raptors, who are facing elimination. 

It's been an incredible series for LeBron James, but I think a lot of people are overlooking just how close this thing is to Toronto leading the series 2-1. They should have won Game 1 at home and who knows what happens if James doesn't hit that buzzer-beater in Game 3. While no one else believes the Raptors have a shot of coming back in this series, I think they are still very confident they can get it done. Either way, I expect them to keep this close. Take Toronto! 

3* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Warriors -

I like the value here with Golden State rebounding from that ugly showing in Game 3, where the Pelicans won going away 119-100. That wasn't a big shocker given how well NO had played against the Blazers in Rd 1 and the Warriors in a bit of a letdown spot after taking a 2-0 lead and getting back Curry.

This is still the team to beat and I just don't see them playing anywhere close to as poorly as they did in Game 3. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if the Warriors turned this into a blowout early. Keep in mind they followed up an ugly 13-point loss to the Spurs with a 8-point win and dominant defensive effort, as they held SA to just 37.2% from the field. Pelicans are simply no match when the Warriors are locked in. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round. 

The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Playoffs ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +

I like the value here with the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 3 against the Warriors. Most are going to just write-off New Orleans now that Steph Curry is back for Golden State, especially after how well Curry played in his first game back (Game 2), scoring 28 points in 27 minutes. What people are overlooking is just how well the Pelicans played on the road, despite Curry's impressive showing. 

New Orleans was right there with a chance to win that game in the 4th quarter and ended up losing by just 5. That loss has the Pelicans in a do-or-die scenario. While no one is giving them a real chance to win the series, this is the game they absolutely have to have if they want a chance to pull off the upset. I think New Orleans is going to be the more motivated team and should get a few more foul calls go their way at home. Take New Orleans! 

3* NBA Playoffs Bookie BLOWOUT on Celtics +

You can grab the points with Boston if you want, but I'm confident the Celtics are not only going to cover but win this one outright. With their convincing 117-101 win in Game 1 over the 76ers, Boston is now a perfect 5-0 on their home floor in the postseason. While everyone else wrote this team off after Irving's injury, this team has continued to believe it has what it takes to make it out of the east. It certainly hasn't hurt that Rozier has really taken his game to the next level and providing that scoring punch they lost with Irving. 

It's not just how well the young guys are playing, what gets overlooked with the Celtics is just how big of an advantage they have with head coach Brad Stevens. His ability to scheme on both sides of the ball, especially defense, really makes him special. Keep in mind Boston got better and better defensively against the Bucks as the series wore on in the first round. The Celtics should be favored here. Take Boston! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Rockets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Rockets and Jazz. Game 1 ended up just finishing below the total at 206 points and that was with the Jazz shooting 50% from the field and the Rockets connecting on 17 3-pointers. Houston ended up winning the game by 14 points (110-96). 

I think we are going to see a much lower-scoring Game 2. Utah is going to lay it all on the line here to try and salvage a split before returning home for Game 3 and simply didn't play up their standards defensively in Game 1. As for the Rockets, everyone pays close attention to their offense, but this is a really good defensive team and I expect them to be a lot better here in Game 2. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play. 

I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are. 

UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Celtics OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's Game 1 action between the 76ers and Celtics. Boston's defense was the difference down the stretch of their first round series against the Bucks, but this 76ers offensive attack is a whole different beast. On top of that, it's only human nature for the Celtics to suffer a bit of a letdown here after playing in a win-or-go-home Game 7 just two days ago. That should show up a lot more on the defensive side of the ball. 

Keep in mind that Philadelphia went up against a pretty strong Heat defense in their first round series and Miami couldn't keep them in check. The 76ers eclipsed 100 points in all 5 games, despite shooting under 43% in 3 of the 5 games. Philadelphia's tempo and ability to hit from long-range will be really hard for the Celtics to contain, especially with the 76ers being extremely well rested, as they last played almost a week ago (4/24). I look for both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark, making this an easy play for me. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz/Rockets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Rockets hosting the Jazz in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. I just think the total here has been set way too low given how explosive the Rockets are on offense. Houston wasn't on their game early in their series against the Timberwolves, but they finished off Minnesota by scoring 119 and 124 in the final 2 games. Note they had 119 on the road in Game 4 despite shooting 43.5% from the field. 

I think a lot of their struggles early had to do with them coasting down the stretch run of the regular-season. The Rockets are locked in and are going to be fresh off a full 3 days of rest. I just don't see the Jazz putting up much of a fight defensively in Game 1, as they just laid it all on the line in their series against OKC, which just ended on Friday. At the same time Utah's offense doesn't get near the respect it deserves. I see this one finishing a lot close to 220 than 200. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I love the value here with the Warriors at this price on their home court in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Pelicans. Regardless if Steph Curry plays or not (added bonus if he does), I expect Golden State to come out looking to send a message to New Orleans that they have no business being in this series. 

I know the Pelicans looked great in their sweep of the Blazers, but Portland wasn't playing well down the stretch and that was a great matchup with no one on the Blazers who could contain Anthony Davis and Rondo being able to make things difficult on Lillard. While Davis will be to stop, Portland will have no answer for Durant and the depth of the Warriors. Take Golden State! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Playoffs Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Cavs +

I like the value here with LeBron James and the Cavs to close out this series with the Pacers on the road. I believe James sucked whatever life the Pacers had left in them in that dramatic finish to Game 5, where he blocked Oladipo's shot and proceeded to hit a deep 3-pointer at the buzzer for the win. 

Unlike the Pacers who failed to control of this series for good when they were playing at home with a 2-1 lead, LeBron and company will step up their game here to finish off Indiana and move on to the next round. Cavs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games when leading in a playoff series. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMINT Top Play on Raptors +

I love the value here with Toronto getting points in Game 6 at Washington. The Raptors took back control of the series with a 108-98 win in Game 5 at home and are going to do everything in their power to make sure their next home game is in round 2. This series likely would have been over if the Raptors didn't blow a 14-point 2nd half lead in Washington back in Game 4. 

I don't see them making that same mistake twice. Look for Toronto to take control of this game early and keep their foot on the gas. The Raptors also seem to have figured out the Wizards offense. After allowing Washington to shot 48% or better in each of the first 3 games, they held them to 46% in Game 4 on the road and 41% in Game 5. 

Raptors are 25-14 in their last 39 off a double-digit home win, while the Wizards are just 11-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Thunder -

I love the value here with OKC as a short home favorite in Game 5 against the Jazz. The Thunder find themselves facing elimination down 3-1 in the series and I like their chances of getting a win and cover in this one. You have to give Utah credit for how well they have played up to this point, but it's extremely difficult closing out a team on the road in the postseason, especially for a team like the Jazz that don't have a ton of playoff experience to fall back on. 

One of the biggest problems for the Thunder has been the early foul trouble of Westbrook. They also aren't getting the kind of production they need out of veteran Carmelo Anthony. I look for both of these two to step up big and for the others to have a big game for OKC at home. Even with their win and cover in Game 2 on the road, Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Chesepeake Energy Arena. Take Oklahoma City! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Thunder OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 5 between the Thunder and Jazz. Most times the deeper a series gets the more likely I'm to lean to the UNDER, but this is an exception. These two teams have went OVER the mark in 3 of the 4 games so far this series with the lowest combined total being 197. Each of the other 3 games all seen at least 209 points and I think we easily get to 210 in this one. 

The reason we are find value is the Jazz are viewed as a great defensive team, but they have went OVER in 11 of their last 15 games, as they are a much better offensive team than they get credit for. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Celtics UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's matchup between the Celtics and Bucks. The series is tied up at 2-2, as each team held serve on their home court. This is a massive game for both sides, as it's now a best of 3 series and whoever takes Game 5 has a huge edge. Needless to say the defensive intensity will be taken up another notch tonight.

You also have to factor in that this is now the 5th game between these two teams in the last 10 days. Both teams are extremely familiar with each other's gamelans and the deeper we get into a series the more of an edge it is for the defenses. Look for both teams to struggle to get going offensively in this one. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational NO-BRAINER on Raptors -

I like the value here with Toronto as a short home favorite in Game 4 against the Wizards. After a couple of convincing wins at home in games 1 & 2, the Raptors laid an egg in Game 3 and lost 103-122 to Washington. That was the game the Wizards had to have to avoid falling behind 3-0, so that wasn't a complete shocker. 

I look for the Raptors to bounce back in a big way here and take a commanding 3-1 series lead going back home for Game 5. Note that the Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off a SU win and a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering the number in their previous contest. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Thunder +4.5

I like the value here with Thunder catching a decent number on the road in Game 3 against the Jazz. OKC blew a 5-point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2 and it was a direct result of their 3 stars underperforming in the clutch.

Westbrook, Anthony and George combined didn't make a single field goal in the 4th quarter (0-14) and the Thunder managed just 16 points in the period. That's not going to happen again. I look for these 3, especially Westbrook, to come out with a chip on their shoulder and not only keep this game close, but win it outright.

Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Thunder. Teams off a home division loss against an opponent off a division win are 55-25 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Game 3 of the Cavs/Pacers series. The first two games of the series have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for just 178 points in Game 1 with a total of 212.5 and 197 in Game 2 with a total of 213. The books have made quite the adjustment for Game 3 with a total almost 5-points lower. 

I just think tonight will be the night that these two light it up. The Pacers have really had their way with Cleveland's defense. The shot 46% from the field in Game 1 and 53% in Game 2. The Cavs defense doesn't figure to be as good on the road, while Indiana should be expected to shoot better at home. As for the Cavs offense, the role players simply can't play as poorly as they have in the first two games. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Spurs +

I like the value here with San Antonio as a home dog in Game 3 of their opening round series against the Warriors. The Spurs won't have their head coach Greg Popovich, as he will be away from the team to morn the passing of his wife on Wednesday. A lot of people might see that as a major disadvantage, but I actually think it will have San Antonio playing even more inspired than they already were going to be down 0-2 and the series on the line. 

After a sluggish start cost them any chance of winning Game 1, the Spurs really played well in the 1st half of Game 2, as they took a 6-point lead going into the final two periods. The Warriors caught fire and put up 69 points in the 2nd half for a 15-point win. Most will see the two blowout losses for the Spurs and jump on laying the small number with Golden State here, but this is a different San Antonio team at home, where they went 33-8 during the regular season. That combined with a huge motivation edge should be enough for the Spurs to keep this close enough to cover and likely win outright. Take San Antonio! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +

I like the value here with the Pacers catching an even bigger number in Game 2 after their impressive 98-80 win in Game 1. As bad as Cleveland looked in the first meeting, the public perspective here is that LeBron James and the Cavs will respond in a big way and avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series. I'm not saying I don't think Cleveland will win, I just don't see them blowing the Pacers out of the gym, which is what this line is calling for. 

I believe the big key here is the Pacers ability to matchup with the Cavs on the defensive side of the ball. Indiana limited Cleveland to just 38.5% shooting in Game 1. The Cavs simply rely too much on James to carry the load offensively and when the other guys aren't hitting shots, the offense really struggles to score. That's a problem because Cleveland's defense isn't very good. Take Indiana! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pelcians +

I love the value here with the Pelicans as a decently priced dog in Game 2 of their series with the Blazers. New Orleans avoided a devastating loss in Game 1, as the held on for a 97-95 win after going into the 4th quarter with a 12-point lead. Anthony Davis led the way with 35 points and 14 rebounds, but he wasn't the only big contributor for the Pelicans. Rondo scored just 6 points, but had 17 assists and 8 rebounds. Mirotic added 16 points and 11 rebound, while Holiday dropped 21 points. 

New Orleans as a team assisted on 26 of their 41 made baskets. In comparison the Blazers only had 17 assists on 37 made field goals. Portland was really fortunate to even be in the game, as they shot 37.8% from the field. What kept them in it was 15 offensive rebounds. I just think that's unlikely to happen again. This is simply too many points for the Pelicans to be catching given they have the best player on the court. Take New Orleans! 

3* NBA Playoffs Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bucks +

You can play the small spread and grab the points with Milwaukee, but I'm recommending going for the extra value and backing the Bucks on the money line in Game 2 against the Celtics. I wasn't surprised to see Boston win Game 1 at home, as they weren't getting the respect they deserved because of the injuries they are dealing with. The Celtics took a 29-17 lead after the 1st quarter, but needed OT to escape with a win. 

I think Milwaukee gained a ton of confidence with how they were able to come back after falling behind big early. The Bucks really made things difficult on the Celtics defensively, as Boston shot just 41.5% from the field. What killed Milwaukee was 20 turnovers, a number I'm confident they will improve on. The other big key for me is Boston had no answer for Antetokounmpo, who shot 11 of 21 (50%) from the field and finished with 35 points 13 rebounds and 7 assists. Take Milwaukee! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T  on Spurs +

I like the value here with the Spurs as a double-digit dog in Game 2 against the Warriors. Golden State won Game 1 by 21 points as a mere 7.5-point favorite. The books have adjusted this by 2.5-points and I just think it's a mistake. 

You wouldn't expect it from a Popovich coached team, but San Antonio came out flat in Game 1. They scored just 17-points in the 1st quarter and it was really over from there. I still think this Warriors team is a bit vulnerable without Curry and expect a completely different look here from the Spurs. I don't know if it will be enough to win this game outright, but I think they gave a legit scare to the defending champs. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two. 

One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200. 

UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him. 

San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's huge showdown between the Jazz and Blazers. While both teams have already secured a spot in the playoffs, the No. 3 seed and home court in the first round will be on the line in this game. I expect a playoff-like atmosphere and as a result a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting with this total. 

Utah has really been locked in defensively down the stretch. The Jazz just held the Warriors to 79 points in their last game and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents under the century mark. They figure to have a good shot at keeping the Blazers under that mark, as Portland's offense has been out of sync here of late. While the offense might not be there, the Blazers should bring their 'A' game defensively at home. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Lakers +

I love the value here with the Lakers as a big home dog against the Rockets on Tuesday. Houston has absolutely nothing to play for. They have the best record in the league locked up and have made it clear that their primary focus over the last 2 regular season games is to stay healthy.

The starters will play, but their minutes will be restricted. Given the circumstances this line should be a lot closer to a pick'em. I think there's a good chance the Lakers win this game and we got plenty of insurance if they end up on the losing end. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Jazz UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Warriors. Utah has clinched a playoff spot, but there's still a lot at stake. With a win over Golden State tonight, the Jazz will have a chance to overtake the Blazers for the No. 3 seed when they visit Portland tomorrow. Needless to say I think we get a great effort here from Utah, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

As for the Warriors, they have nothing to play for and are just going through the motions right now. With Curry already out with an injury, Golden State isn't going to push any of their stars in these last couple meaningless regular season games. With that said, I do expect whoever plays for the Warriors to compete and that should be all we need here to keep this well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pelicans -

I like the value here with the Pelicans laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Clippers. New Orleans is currently sitting 5th in the west, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Denver and being left out. Simply put, this is essentially a playoff game for the Pelicans. 

The key here is this game doesn't mean anywhere close to the same to the Clippers, who were just recently eliminated from playoff contention. LA has numerous guys out with injury and it's likely they give some of their younger guys more minutes in the final 2 games. Their last two games have seen them lose by 22 at Utah and by 19 at home to the Nuggets. This has another blowout loss for LA written all over it. Take New Orleans! 

5* NBA Late Season PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bulls +

I love the value here with Chicago as a big road dog against the Nets on Monday. I think we are seeing a huge overreaction with this line. Sure Brooklyn just won at Chicago 124-96 on Saturday. The thing is, that makes this game that less interesting for the Nets, who have zero to play for and are likely looking ahead to their finale against the Celtics. 

The Bulls on the other hand should be motivated here to play better than they did in the last meeting. Chicago had been playing well before laying an egg against the Nets. Chicago had won 3 of 4 and are still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. 

Bulls are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home in the 2nd half of the season. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Warriors visiting the Suns. Golden State has nothing to play for down the stretch, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the west. It's really shown of late on the defensive side of the ball, as the Warriors have given up 126 in each of their last 2 games, allowing the Pacers to shoot 53.8% from the field on Thursday and the Pelicans to shoot 56.3% yesterday. 

The offense for the Warriors has been much better of late and they should have no problem putting up a big number here against a horrible Suns defense. Phoenix comes in giving up 113.4 ppg and I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State got to 130 in this one. OVER is 6-1 in the Warriors last 7 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 5-1 in the Suns last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jazz -

I like the value here with Utah laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Lakers. The Jazz will be all business when they take the floor on Sunday, as Utah can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Jazz can also still finish as the No. 3 seed in the west if they win their final 3 games. 

I look for them to have no problem winning here by double-digits. They have had their way with the Lakers this season and LA comes in having lost 4 of 5 and have zero to play for right now. Last time out the Jazz destroyed the Clippers 117-95 and that's worth noting as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off a win by 10 or more. Take Utah! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grizzlies +

I like the value here with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Pistons on Sunday. Detroit is simply getting too much respect given the circumstances. While the Pistons have won 8 of 10, they were just recently eliminated from playoff contention and that's going to make it really hard for them to show up for the final 3 games on their schedule.

I think they especially have a difficult time here on the road against a bad Memphis team. The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight, but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6, covering each of their last 2 at home. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home against a team like Detroit that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets vs Bulls UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Bulls hosting the Nets. These two bottom feeders have absolutely zero to play for and I think it will be hard for both sides to get up for this game, as these two teams will turn around and play each other again on Monday. 

Clearly these are two of the least talented teams in the league and both sides have key players out with injury. They last played in late February and the two teams combined for a mere 191 points. I would expect a little more offense this time around, but with the total where it's at, this is simply too good of a price to pass up. 

UNDER is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hornets -

I like the value here with the Hornets laying what I feel is a short number on the road against the Magic. I know it's been a struggle for Charlotte of late, as they come in having lost 4 straight, but this is an ideal spot for them to get a win. Orlando has won their last two games, but those victories came against fellow bottom-feeders in the Knicks and Mavs. Even with those two wins they are just 4-11 in their last 15 games. 

The Magic simply aren't shooting well at all right now. They have shot no better than 45% in 9 straight games and have shot 42% or worse in 6 of the 9. It's also worth pointing out that Orlando is currently tied with the Mavs for the 4th worst record and winning here actually does them more harm than it does good. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they didn't show up at all here and this thing gets ugly in a hurry. Keep in mind that while the Hornets have lost 4 straight, 3 of those losses have come against playoff teams in the Cavs, Wizards and 76ers. Take Charlotte! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Warriors. Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, while Indiana is sitting 5th in the east, two games back of the Cavs and 76ers and 3.5 ahead of the Heat. There's just not a lot to play for here for either side, but I do think both teams are trying to stay in good form for the playoffs. 

Golden State's continues to play without Steph Curry and simply aren't as explosive offensively without him on on the court. Their highest point total in their last 8 games is 117 points and that was at home against the Suns. Indiana hasn't allowed more than 107 in their last 8. I think both teams are also going to limit their star players minutes, which will really make it tough for them to eclipse this number. 

UNDER is 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 non-conference games and 13-4 in their last 17 off a road loss. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Warriors last 28 after giving up 100+ points and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a good home team that's won 60% or more of their games at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DESTROYER on Pistons/Sixers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Pistons hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia is really clicking on the offensive side of the ball right now and haven't missed a beat since Embiid went down with an injury. The 76ers put up 121 points in yesterday's 26-point blowout win over the Nets. Philadelphia has now scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games. 

Detroit's playoff hopes are hanging on by a threat. While it's highly unlikely they can make up the ground to get into the postseason, I don't see this team throwing in the towel until they are officially eliminated. Look for the Pistons to continue their offensive surge, as they come in averaging 111 ppg over their last 5. 

These two last played in Philadelphia back on Jan. 5th, which the 76ers won 114-78. That's worth noting, as the OVER is 10-2 in the Pistons last 12 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Thunder UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Thunder hosting the Warriors. These two teams don't like each other and most of it stems from Durant leaving OKC to team up with the Warriors. I'm expecting a big time effort from both sides, which in turn should keep this game well under the total set here by the books. 

While Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, there's a sense of urgency with the Warrior to start playing better going into the playoffs. At the same time, they aren't as prolific offensively without Curry and could struggle to get the offense rolling against a good OKC defense. As for the Thunder, they really need a win here. While Oklahoma City currently sits 5th in the West, they are just 2.5-games ahead of 9th place Denver. Most importantly, they don't want to fall back into the 7th or 8th spots and have to face Golden State or Houston in the first round. 

UNDER is 11-5 in the Warriors last 16 games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 overall and 13-3 in their last 16 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bucks -

I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Celtics on Tuesday. The Bucks are still trying to clinch a playoff spot and I expect an all out effort here after how they lost their most recent game. Milwaukee somehow managed to blow a 18-point lead with under 8 minutes to play in an overtime loss at Denver. Prior to that the Bucks had won 4 of 5 and come in having covered 5 of 6. 

Boston has won 6 straight, despite Kyrie Irving being sidelined with a knee injury. This is a team that has proven they can win regardless of who is out of the lineup. However, I think this will be a tough spot for the Celtics. They are fresh off a huge win over the Raptors at home on Saturday, which moved them within 2-games of the No. 1 seed in the east. With another big game against the Raptors in Toronto on deck tomorrow, I think we could see Boston having a hard time giving the Bucks their full attention. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Raptors +

I like the value here with Toronto in Tuesday's big showdown at Cleveland. The betting public is going to be all over the Cavs in this one as a short home favorite. Cleveland comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 in their last 9 overall. They have gone an impressive 7-2 ATS during this stretch. As for the Raptors, they have failed to cover their last 8 games, including a recent loss at Cleveland back on 3/21, where they lost by 3-points as a 2-point favorite. 

This not only a big revenge game for Toronto, but one they desperately need if they want to keep hold of the No. 1 seed in the east. As bad as they have been playing, I expect the Raptors to treat this like a playoff game. Cleveland will be without point guard George Hill for this game and that's a big loss. I also think the Cavs are going to really struggle to keep up with Toronto's bench, which is one of the best in the league. 

Despite their recent strong play, Cleveland is still a miserable 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 home games and are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Toronto! 

5* NCAA Championship Game VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan/Villanova UNDER

I love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's National Championship Game between Villanova and Michigan. The Wildcats just put up 95 in a convincing win over Kansas that flew over the total of 155 and to no surprise the public is pounding the OVER in the title game tonight. 

Those who have watched Villanova, know this is a team that loves to shoot the 3-pointer and they couldn't have been hotter from deep to start their Final Four game against the Jayhawks. The Wildcats hit 13 of 26 3-pointers in the 1st half, as they exposed Kansas big man Azubuike and his inability to guard the 3-pointer. Michigan is a much better defense team than the Jayhawks and are much better equipped to defend the 3-pointer. 

I expect the Wolverines to try and slow down the game, as the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with Villanova. The problem here for Michigan is they aren't a great offensive team and the Wildcats are a much better defensive team than people think. This matchup reminds me a lot of Villanova's Elite 8 matchup with Texas Tech, which finished with just 130 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland -

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Blazers as they host the Grizzlies on Sunday. Portland is 16-3 over their last 19 games and 23-7 over their last 30. This impressive run has the Blazers sitting in the No. 3 spot in the west and they know this is one they can't afford to lose if they want to secure that spot. 

What I love is they won't be taking the Grizzlies lightly. These two teams played on Wednesday at Memphis and the Grizzlies blew a 7-point lead with around 5 minutes to play in a 103-108 loss as a 5.5-point favorite. They are going to be out for revenge and this time will make sure to put away Memphis early and keep their foot on the gas. 

The Grizzlies 2-game winning streak came to an end with 97-107 loss at Utah on Friday and Memphis is a mere 5-15 ATS this season off a double-digit defeat. Blazers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Portland! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers -

I like the value here with the 76ers laying a short number on the road against the Hornets Sunday. Philadelphia won't have Joel Embiid, but I don't see that being a problem. They won by 17 over the Knicks with Embiid playing just 9 minutes on Wednesday and won by double-digits at Atlanta without him on Friday. The 76ers have now won 9 straight and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas here, as they are fighting to get that No. 3 spot in the east. 

While Philadelphia is going to be extremely motivated to play well in this contest, I don't think we see the same fight from the Hornets. Charlotte came into the season with the expectations of making the playoffs, but those hopes were recently put to rest, as they have been eliminated from postseason play. I think the Hornets will have a really hard time finding motivation over the final 5 games of the season and should be a bigger dog given the circumstances.

Note the 76ers have dominated the series this season, winning each of the first 3 meetings by double-digits, including a 14-point win in their lone game at Charlotte. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NCAAB 'Final Four' VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago +

I like the value here with the Ramblers in their Final Four showdown with Michigan. I think the perception is that Loyola-Chicag's Cinderella run will come to an end against the Wolverines, but I not only think the Ramblers can keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. 

By now it's no secret that Loyola has gotten to this point because of their defense. I just don't know that people realize how good the Ramblers are on that side of the ball. They have held all 4 of their opponents to this point under 70 points, holding 3 of the 4 to exactly 62 points. It's not just effort, the coaching staff of Loyola has done a tremendous job gameplanning for their opponent. Michigan had one great offensive game against Texas A&M, where they shot 62% from the field. The other 3 weren't all that good. They shot just 35.6% in their last-second win over Houston and a mere 38.8% in their 4-point victory over Florida State.

What gets over looked with the Ramblers and that elite defense, is how efficient they are on the offensive side of the ball. Loyola-Chicago's worst shooting performance in the tournament came in their first game against Miami, where they shot just 47.3%. They hit 50% against the Vols, 56% against Nevada and 57.4% vs the Wildcats. Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog and 8-1 ATS in their 9 tournament games played this season. Take Loyola! 

5* NCAAB 'CBI' Champ Game VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -

I like the value here with the Mean Green in Friday's CBI Championship Game. Unlike the other postseason tournaments, where it's win or go home, the CBI plays a best of 3 series for the title. These two teams have split the first two games of the series with the home team dominating in each matchup.

San Francisco won Game 1 at home 72-62. North Texas responded with a 69-55 win in game 2. The Mean Green were a similar 3.5-point home favorite in Game 2 and I just don't see any reason not to back North Texas in the rubber match at home. 

San Fran is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Mean Green are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take North Texas! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Magic UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the Bulls visiting the Magic. Both of these teams clearly have no interest in winning down the stretch and the offensive output has been atrocious for both sides. Chicago is averaging just 96 ppg over their last 5 and haven't score more than 105 in each of their last 6. It's been just as ugly offensively for the Magic, who are averaging just 95.2 ppg over their last 5 and haven't scored more than 105 in each of their last 6. 

The reason we are seeing such a high total is these two haven't been the best on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch, but I think if anything that's creating the value here, as there's just not enough offensive fire-power on either side for the total to be this high. 

UNDER is 14-6 in the Magic's last 20 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. UNDER is also 12-4 in their last 16 when playing with double-revenge and a perfect 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards +

I like the value here with Washington at basically a pick'em on the road against the Pistons tonight. The Wizards snapped a 3-game skid with a  convincing 116-106 win at home over the Spurs on Tuesday. It wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate, as Washington had a 22-point lead going into the 4th quarter. 

The Wizards are pretty safe in terms of making the playoffs, but have yet to clinch a spot, so I expect them to come out and play extremely hard until they do just that. Detroit has kept their slim playoff hopes alive by winning 4 of their last 5, but there chances of making it are still pretty slim, as they trail 8th place Milwaukee by 5-games with just 8 to play.

What is getting overlooked with the Pistons strong play of late is it's come against bad teams. Their 4 wins during their 4-1 stretch have come against the likes of the Kings, Suns, Bulls and Lakers. I just don't trust this team at all against good teams and will gladly take my chances here with the Wizards at this price. Take Washington! 

4* NCAAB 'NIT' Championship Game NO-BRAINER on Utah +

I like the value here with the Utes as a decently priced dog in Thursday's NIT Championship Game against Penn State. Utah hasn't just caught fire in the NIT, this is a team that really turned a corner   in the final month and a half of the regular-season. The Utes went 99-3 over their final 12 games. They would lose their only game in the Pac-12 Tournament, but it could have easily went their way, as they fell 66-68 to Oregon.

They picked right up where they left off and have been a force in the NIT. They won by 9 at St Mary's to get to New York and won by 5 as a 2-point dog in the semifinals Tuesday against WKU. Penn State has won 5 of 6, but I just don't see a big enough gap that the Nittany Lions should be favored by nearly 5-points. If anything, this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me. Take Utah! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Jazz OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Celtics. These are two strong defensive teams, but I just feel the number has been adjusted too much here because of all the injuries for Boston. The thing is the Celtics are a deeper team than they get credit for and have scored 100+ in each of their last 4 games. 

Utah just held the Warriors to 91 points in their last game, but that was against a Golden State team that was missing all their star players. Prior to that the Jazz had given up 124 to the Spurs and 112 to the Mavs. At the same time, Utah has scored 110 in each of their last 3 games.

I just think the total is too low here. OVER is 7-1-1 in the Celtics last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. OVER is also 8-2 in Utah's last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies hosting the Blazers. This is a very low total for a game involving the Blazers, who have really been an offensive force for the last month and a half. You have to go back to a Feb. 11 game at home against the Jazz to find the last time Portland failed to reach 100 points in a game. 

They have gone under in each of their last two games, but keep in mind those were both against teams they were competing against for playoff spots in the Thunder and Pelicans. The most recent was last night's game at New Orleans. The key here is I don't see the Blazers being 100% locked in on the defensive side of the ball in this one. Not only are they going to be dealing with tired legs, playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights, but they aren't going to feel like they have to play their best to beat a team like Memphis. 

The Grizzlies aren't a great offensive team, but did just put up 101 in a shocking win at Minnesota and have eclipsed the century mark in 6 of their last 8 games. OVER is 14-3 in the Blazers last 17 after attempting 90+ shots in 2 straight games and 6-1 when playing on no rest after the starters logged 160+ minutes. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Timberwolves hosting the Hawks. Last time out we saw Minnesota suffer a shocking 93-101 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 13-point favorite. The offense was to blame for the defeat, as there's no excuse for scoring 93 points against a tanking Memphis team. The shots simply weren't falling for Minnesota, who hit on just 41.8% of their attempts. 

That snapped a streak of 9 straight games where the Timberwolves had scored at least 100 points. I think we see a big bounce back performance from Minnesota offensively in this one. Atlanta is in full on tank mode and I just don't see the Hawks being interested at all at playing defense in this game. They are coming off two much bigger games at Golden State and Houston and will be playing the final game of a 6-game road trip. Atlanta allowed 118 to the Rockets in their last game and have allowed 118 or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

OVER is 29-16 in the Timberwolves last 45 home games with a total set between 210 and 219.5, 21-9 in their last 30 off an upset loss as a favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 off a home loss. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAB 'CIT' Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois Chicago +

I like the value here with Illinois-Chicago in Wednesday's matchup against Liberty in the semifinals of the CIT. I just feel like UIC isn't getting near enough respect here and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are without leading scorer Dikembe Dixon. He didn't play in either of their first two games in this tournament and they won by 23 as a mere 5-point favorite against St Francis-PA and followed that up with a 83-81 win at Austin Peay as a 4-point dog. UIC put up 80+ in both wins and have now scored 75 or more in 10 of their last 11. 

Liberty put up 84 in their most recent game against Central Michigan, but that was more of a result of them taking advantage of a bad Chippewas defense. They also shot lights out, hitting on 56% of their attempts. Prior to that Liberty had eclipsed 70 points just once in their previous 7 games. UIC is allowing just 72.6 ppg on the season and have held opponents to 40.7% from the field. Keep in mind UIC played the much tougher schedule this season. I actually think this should be closer to a pick'em. Take Illinois-Chicago! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers -

I love the value here with the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Durant, Curry and Thompson for this game and have little to nothing to play for down the stretch. The Warriors aren't catching Houston for the No. 1 spot and are all but a lock to take home the No. 2 spot, as they need just 1 more win or 1 more Blazers loss to make it official. 

We saw a similar scenario play out in their last game at home against the Jazz and they were no match for Utah in a 19-point loss. I think we could easily see Indiana win here by double-digits. The Pacers clinched a playoff spot in their last game, but still have plenty to play for as they are just 1.5-games behind the Cavs for 3rd and a mere 4-games ahead of Miami for 8th in the east. 

Pacers are 23-11 ATS as a favorite this season and the Warriors are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Golden State has also failed to cover each of their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action that has a couple of bottom feeders in the Mavs and Kings facing off in Sacramento. There's zero reason for either of these teams to get up for this game and that should result in very little defense being played by either side. 

That would be nothing new for the Mavs, who come in giving up 114.4 ppg over their last 5. The Kings have gone UNDER in 3 straight and 4 of 5, but I see these two having no problem going over the small mark set by the books in this one. These two teams last played in February and combined for 223 points with a total of 205.5. I think we see a similar output here, as this flies over the number. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB 'CBI Championship' ANNIHILATOR on San Fran -

I like the value here with the Dons laying a short number at home against the Mean Green. North Texas has had the more impressive run to the CBI Championship Series, but I think it has them overvalued here on the road. San Francisco is a quality team that has played it's best basketball at home, where they are 15-6 on the season. 

The other big key here is defense and that's what I believe will be the difference in this one. North Texas has put up 90 or more in all 3 of their wins in this Tournament. Those all came against some bad defensive teams. San Francisco has allowed 68, 73 and 62 in their 3 games in the CBI and are only giving up 66.2 ppg at home, where they are also holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting. 

North Texas is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games after scoring 75 or more points in 3 straight games. Take San Francisco! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER  on Nuggets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nuggets. After scoring 135 or more in back-to-back games, the Nuggets managed just 108 in their most recent game and I look for them to struggle to put up a big number here on the road against a 76ers team that is only giving up 103.1 ppg at home. 

I also don't see Philadelphia putting up a big number, as we should get a max effort here defensively from the Nuggets, who simply can't afford a loss given their current standings in the Western Conference playoff race and they should have some fresh legs having had the last 2 days off. 

Adding to all of this is a couple of great systems. UNDER is 46-13 (78%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with one team having won at least 2 straight and the opponent having won 3 or more games. UNDER is also 41-13 (76%) when you have a total of 210 or more in the month of March with the home team working on a 4 or more game winning streak. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat UNDER

I like the value with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Heat. This is a big game for both teams, as each is trying to position themselves for the postseason. Indiana is just a 1/2-game back of the 76ers for the No. 4 spot, while the Heat are just a 1/2-game ahead of the Bucks for the 8th and final spot. I expect a big effort from both sides on the defensive end and for this to go well below the number set by the books. 

UNDER is 18-8 in the Heat's last 26 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Pacers last 7 home games and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs a team from the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Bucks OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs visiting the Bucks. The OVER has cashed in each of Milwaukee's last 7 games. Every one of those games saw a combined score of at least 123. I know the Spurs are a great defensive team, but they did just allow 120 at home to the Jazz in their last game, which saw a combined score of 244. I just think there's too much value here to pass up with this total sitting where it is. 

OVER is 12-2 in the Bucks last 14 games after playing two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 after going OVER the total in 4 or more consecutive games. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAB 'Elite 8' ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech +

I like the value here with the Red Raiders as a decently priced underdog against Villanova. Texas Tech continued their impressive run through the tournament with a 78-65 win over Purdue and this is simply a different team when Keenan Evans is healthy. Had he not been hurt late in the regular season, the Red Raiders may have very well won the Big 12 title. When Evans has been on the floor, Texas Tech has played like one of the best teams in the country. 

I think the fact that Villanova has won and covered all 3 of their games and will be the popular public side, has this line a lot higher than it should be. Keep in mind West Virginia was only a 5.5-point dog in the previous round and this Texas Tech team is more talented than the Mountaineers and arguably the best defensive team the Wildcats will have seen to this point in the tournament. I don't think it's out of the question that the Red Raiders can win this one one outright. Take Texas Tech! 

4* NCAAB 'Elite 8' VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +

I like the value here with the Seminoles as a decently priced underdog in Saturday's Elite 8 action against Michigan. Both of these teams come in off impressive wins. The Wolverines cruised to a 99-72 win over Texas A&M, while Florida State made easy work of Gonzaga in a 75-60 win.

The Seminoles have now knocked off Xavier and Gonzaga in back-to-back games, yet no one is giving this team much of a chance to beat Michigan. I think that's a big mistake and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me on Florida State at this price. 

This is a situation in which the Seminoles have absolutely thrived at the ticket window. FSU is 20-5 ATS in their last 25 as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less. They are also working on a 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 non-confernece games. Take Florida State! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Timberwolves. Both teams have put up some big numbers of late. Minnesota has scored 120+ in each of their last 2 games, while Philadelphia has scored 118 or more in 4 of their last 5. I believe we are seeing an inflated number because of this and there's simply too much value to pass up. 

UNDER is 14-4 in the 76ers last 18 games against an above average, but not elite team, that's won between 51% and 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 10-1 in Philadelphia's last 11 games in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110 or more ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The UNDER is 40-11 (78%) in the month of March when you have a team on at least a 4-game winning streak and a total at or above 210 points. 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat +

I like the value here with Miami catching what I feel is a big number on the road against the Thunder. The Heat look to be safely in the playoffs. While they sit 7th in the standings, they are 7-games up on 9th place Detroit with only 10 games to play. At the same time, they are only 2.5-games back of the 76ers for 4th place and home court advantage in the first round. 

The Heat come in having won 3 straight and are 9-4 in their last 13 overall. For whatever reason this team doesn't get any love from the public and I think it has them way undervalued here against a very public team in OKC. The Thunder need a win just as bad, but this is more evenly matched than most people realize. I also think this is a tough spot for Oklahoma City off that epic collapse in the finals minutes of Tuesday's 99-100 loss at Boston. Take Miami! 

5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's Sweet 16 action that has No. 1 seed Villanova taking on No. 5 seed West Virginia. Both of these teams have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers put up 85 on Murray State and 94 against Marshall. As for the Wildcats, they hung 87 on Radford and 81 on Alabama. 

I believe those high outputs have created some great value here with the UNDER. Not to say these aren't strong offensive teams, I just feel the level of competition played a big role in those high offensive outputs. I expect to see both sides struggle to find a rhythm offensively in this one. While Villanova has the guards to handle the West Virginia pressure, it's likely to still cause some problems just because they haven't really played against it. The Mountaineers simply aren't going to shoot 50% from the field against this Villanova defense like they did in the first two rounds. 

Note that UNDER is 8-2-1 in the Mountaineers last 11 games after they scored 90 or more points. The UNDER is also 12-3 in West Virginia's last 15 as an underdog and 9-1 in their last 10 vs teams that average 84 or more points/game. Take the UNDER!  

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers +

I like the value here with the Lakers as a short road dog against the Pelicans on Thursday. This is simply a play against New Orleans, who I just don't see having enough left in the tank to win this game. The Pelicans had to play a make-up game yesterday against the Pacers. They also had to play on Tueday at home against the Mavs, so this will be their 3rd game in 3 days. It's also their 5th game in the last 6 days. While they were able to knock off Indiana, they shot just 43% from the field in the victory and the shooting could get even worse tonight. 

Lakers have lost 3 straight, but are not throwing in the towel just yet and I look for a big effort here to get back in the win column. Note that while the Pelicans are in as bad a rest situation as you will find, Los Angeles has had the last 3 days off. I don't care how much better the other team is, you give a team 3 days off against a team that is playing their 5th game in 6 days and 3rd in 3 days and the team with the rest edge will win the majority of the time. Take the Lakers! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on A&M/Michigan OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup between Texas A&M and Michigan. The Wolverines came out flat offensively in their first round game against Montana (didn't score in first 4 minutes, trailed 10-0), which was to be expected after the long layoff between that game and the Big Ten Tournament. They then were matched up with an elite Houston defense in the Round of 32 and ended up needing a last-second 3-pointer to pull out a 64-63 win. 

Prior to these two Tournament games, Michigan had scored 75+ in each of their previous 5 games and I look for the offense to return to form here against Texas A&M. The Aggies limited UNC to just 65 points and 33.3% shooting, but put up 86 on the Tar Heels. Simply put this total has been set too low given the talent offensively on both sides. 

OVER is 13-4 in Michigan's last 17 road games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games and 9-2 in their last 11 road games after playing 2 straight as a favorite. OVER is also 9-2 in the Wolverines last 11 vs a team that is shooting 45% or better from the field at least 15 games into the season and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road vs teams who average 17 or fewer fouls/game. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Nets hosting the Hornets. While Charlotte managed just 94 points in their last game at the 76ers, this is a team that had been rolling offensively before that contest. The Hornets were averaging 115.3 ppg over their previous 7 games. I think they have no problem here getting back on track offensively against the Nets, who have allowed 111 or more points in 9 of their last 10 games. 

Brooklyn should also be in store for a big game offensively. The Hornets have allowed at least 108 points in each of their last 7 games, and have given up 115 or more in 6 of those 7. Brooklyn has scored 114 or more in 3 straight games and keep mind they put up 125 at Charlotte earlier this month (3/8) in a game that saw a combined 236 points. While the books have adjusted some (total was 217 in the previous meeting), I think these two fly over the number again. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Blazers OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's showdown between the Rockets and Blazers. These are the two hottest teams in the NBA right now. Houston has won 5 straight and are 22-1 in their last 23 games, while Portland enters on a 13-game winning streak. 

While both are better defensively than they get credit for, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power for them to not reach at least 220 points. Houston is averaging 113.5 ppg on the season and the Blazers are scoring 115 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season. They combined for 141 in the first meeting at Portland and 133 in the matchup at Houston. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Blazers last 22 games in the 2nd half of the season vs elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. OVER is also 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ ppg. OVER is also 23-9 in the Rockets last 32 games vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Grizzlies visiting the Nets. While Brooklyn is a team built to go over the total with a respectable offense and bad defense, Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league and come in averaging a mere 97.8 ppg on the season. 

The Grizzlies were able to snap a 19-game losing streak in their last game and did so by limiting the Nuggets to just 94 points. That's now two straight games where they have really played well defensively. The held the Bulls to just 43.7% shooting in their previous game. I look for another strong effort here, as they will try to snap a 14-game road losing streak. Note these two teams combined for a whopping 186 points in their only previous meeting this season. 

Brooklyn also won their last game and that's important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the NEts last 14 home games after a win. UNDER is also 12-1 in the Grizzlies last 13 games with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAA Tournament ATS HEAVY HITTER on UMBC +

I like the value here with UMBC as a double-digit dog in their attempt to keep this incredible Cinderella story going. The Retrievers pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history, as they became the first ever No. 16 seed to take down a No. 1 seed. What's remarkable is they didn't just win on a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer, they absolutely dominated the No. 1 overall seed in a 20-point win. 

There is some concern here with UMBC suffering a letdown off that massive upset, but I think there's more fight in this team and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. This Kansas State team isn't anything special and could be without one of their best players in Dean Wade, who leads the team in scoring at 16.5 ppg. Wade is questionable with a foot injury and even if he does play, he doesn't figure to be at 100%. Take UMBC! 

5* NCAA Tourn Rd of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn -

I love the value here with Auburn at basically a pick'em against Clemson in Sunday's Round of 32 action out of the Midwest Region. Auburn won their opener 62-58 over Charleston. That was a lot closer than most expected, as they were a 9.5-point favorite, but that's a much better Charleston team than most people realize. It didn't help that Auburn shot about as poor as they could, hitting just 35.6% from the field. 

Clemson had a little easier time in their first game, as they beat New Mexico State 79-68 behind a red-hot 55.9% shooting. I just think the contrasting victories have created some big time value here with Auburn. I look for Clemson to have a much tougher time offensively against this Auburn defense, while I expect Auburn to be much more efficient from the offensive side of the ball. 

Clemson hasn't exactly excelled in this spot. They are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing on the road in their 2nd game in a week. Take Auburn!

5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Cincy OVER

I love the value here with the OVER in Sunday's Round of 32 action that has Nevada taking on Cincinnati. It's no secret that the Bearcats are a great defensive team and I think that is definitely playing into this low number. 

The key here is the matchup and unfamiliarity with this explosive Nevada offense, which features 3 big time offensive players in Jordan Caroline and the Martin twins. This is a team that scores 83.2 ppg and doesn't play at a really fast tempo, which speaks to how efficient they are. The other big key is they don't turn the ball over and shoot close to 40% from behind the 3-point line. 

While I could see the Bearcats struggling to contain this Nevada offense, they should be able to put up a big number of their own against this Wolf Pack defense. Nevada hasn't allowed fewer than 74 points in each of their last 6 games. 

OVER is 5-1 in the Wolf Pack's last 6 non-confernece games, and 8-2 in their last 10 games played on a neutral site. OVER is also 33-15 in Nevada's last 48 vs great defensive teams that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take the OVER! 

3* NIT Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon/Marquette UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NIT action that has Marquette hosting Oregon. The Ducks come in off a 99-86 win over Rider in the opening round of the NIT. That game flew over the total of 159 and I think it has the number here inflated. The Golden Eagles are a team that averages 80.8 ppg, but aren't in great form right now, as they have scored 72 or fewer in each of their last 3 games. 

While Oregon gave up 86 to Rider, the Ducks had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 74 or less and I expect a big effort here defensively on the road. Keep in mind that both teams can score well into the 70s and we can still cash a winning ticket with this high number.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Ducks last 11 off a home win by 10 or more points, 15-5 in their last 20 road games off a home game and 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 80 or more points. UNDER is also 16-5 in Marquette's last 21 home games with a total in the 150's. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAA Tournament Vegas INSIDER on Loyola +

I like the value here with the Ramblers as a decently priced dog against the Volunteers, as I think there's a decent chance they win this game outright. A lot of people simply don't realize just how good this Loyola-Chicago team is. Not only because of the small conference they play in, but they haven't really been in this spot before. 

One of the reasons that Tennessee had such a great season is the defense they played, but the Ramblers are every bit as good on that side of the ball. Loyola-Chicago only gave up 62.7 ppg on the season and were right on point, limiting the Hurricanes to 62 points in the first round. They forced Miami into 16 turnovers and did an excellent job keeping them off the line, as the Hurricanes only attempted 13 free throws. 

The other big key here is the Ramblers can stroke it from long-distance. They shot 40% as a team from behind the 3-point line and have 5 different players who shoot 38% or better. I simply trust their offense more in this one and I feel this line is inflated by a good 3-4 points because of how good the Vols looked in their opener with Wright State. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

3* NCAA Tournament Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Buffalo +

I like the value here with the Bulls catching a decent number against the Wildcats. Buffalo pulled off a big upset in the first round and did so in impressive fashion. The Bulls defeated Arizona 89-68 as a 9-point dog. A lot of people credited the win more on how bad the Wildcats played and while they didn't play their best game, this Buffalo team is no joke. 

The Bulls have 3 dynamic scorers in Jeremy Harris (15.6 ppg), C.J. Massinburg (17.3 ppg) and Wes Clark (14.1 ppg). These 3 combined for 67 points and were 11 for 22 from long-distance. That 3-point shooting is a huge factor here, as Kentucky is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country and failed to make a single 3 in their win over Davidson in the first round. While the Wildcats will be able to score inside on the Bulls, trading 2 for 3 will allow Buffalo to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo! 

4* NIT Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Penn State OVER

I like the value here with the OVER in Saturday's NIT action that has Notre Dame facing off against Penn State. While Notre Dame put up 84 in their first NIT game against Hampton, the Nittany Lions played a very low-scoring game against Temple, which the won 63-57. I think that combined with the fact that the Irish only allowed 63 to Hampton has this number a lot lower than it should be. 

Penn State is a much better offensive team than they showed in their game against the Owls and should have a much easier time scoring here against the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame allowed Duke to shoot 55.4% from the field in their final game of the ACC Tournament. The other key here is I don't see the Nittany Lions defense being able to slow down the Irish offense, which is averaging 82 ppg at home. 

Note the OVER is 14-4 over the last 2 seasons when Penn State is listed as a road dog and 8-1 in Notre Dame's last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 or less. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAA Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Missouri +

I like the value here with the Tigers at basically a pick'em against the Seminoles in Friday's first round action out of the West Region. Missouri is one of the bigger wild card teams in the field, as Michael Porter Jr basically didn't play the entire season until the Tigers SEC Tournament game. He's a special talent and a for sure lottery pick in next year's NBA draft. He's the kind of player that can put a team on his back. 

To no surprise Porter Jr was a bit rusty in his first game back, but he certainly wasn't lacking any confidence, as he hoisted up 17 shots off the bench in just 23 minutes of playing time. I think that was huge for the Tigers to get a warm-up game with Porter Jr. in the mix. They now have had a few days to put together a game plan and I think they are going to have their way with Florida State. 

The Seminoles have some nice pieces and were a solid team, but they aren't playing well down the stretch. FSU went just 4-6 over their final 10 games. I also don't love the matchup for the Seminoles. Florida State relies a lot on penetration to get their offense going and this Missouri team can lock you down defensively. The Tigers also are a great 3-point shooting team, which is huge given all the size and athleticism the Seminoles have inside. Take Missouri! 

5* NCAA Tournament No Limit TOP PLAY on UMBC +

I love the value here with the Maryland-Baltimore Country catching a huge number against No. 1 overall seed Virginia. Most people probably didn't even know UMBC was a school and that unfamiliarity combined with the Cavaliers being ranked No. 1 overall will have the public backing Virginia. I think the books were well aware of this action and have inflated this line to where there's tremendous value with the underdog. 

You hear it all the time, great guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament. Well the Retrievers are led by their backcourt of Jairus Lyles and K.J. Maura. Both of which are very quick off the dribble and have great instincts on defense. They create a lot of easy looks from deep with their penetration and generate a lot of steals on the defense, allowing UMBC to get out in transition. 

I know Virginia doesn't have a ton of holes, but I think the pressure of the Retrievers and the Cavaliers potentially not giving this team their full amount of respect with much bigger games looming, will allow UMBC to keep this game a lot closer than most expert. Take Maryland-Baltimore County! 

3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA action that has the 76ers hosting the Nets. These two division rivals have a history of playing lower scoring games than what the books expect. The UNDER is 11-3-2 in the last 16 meetings and 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played in Philadelphia. 

With how well the 76ers are playing overall an especially at home, there's a good chance this gets out of hand and blowouts typically aren't all that high-scoring. You really need both teams to put up a lot of points to go OVER a mark like this. The Nets just aren't clicking offensively right now, as they are shooting just 43.7% from the field in their last 5 and only average 99.7 ppg vs division opponents. 

UNDER is 11-2 in Philadelphia's last 13 home games when playing against a bad team like the Nets, who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. UNDER is also 22-9 in Brooklyn's last 31 after 3 straight games with a combined score of 215 or more and 17-7 in their last 24 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. 

4* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton -

I like the value here with the Bluejays at basically a pick'em in Fridays' first round action out of the South Region. Bruce Weber did another masterful job at Kansas State this year, as many experts had them pegged near the basement of the Big 12 standings. Martin forces effort from his players on a nightly basis and that played a big part in the Wildcats regular-season success. 

The thing is, effort can only get you so far and we saw this team really struggle against the top tier teams in the Big 12. In fact, they were 0-7 against the likes of Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. I think we are going to see a similar struggle for them against a very good Creighton team that is extremely efficient offensively and plays at a frantic pace. The Bluejays put up 84.3 ppg. K-State simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace, as they really only have to legit scoring options in Dean Wade and Barry Brown. Take Creighton! 

3* BEST BET on Murray State +

I like the value here with the Racers catching double-digits against the Mountaineers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. It's no secret that West Virginia is a tough team to prepare for in the NCAA Tournament, but I think Murray State has the pieces in place to handle the Mountaineers pressure. 

The Racers have two good ball handlers in their backcourt in Jonathan Stark and Demetrius Morant. The two combined to average 34.4 ppg and 10.3 apg. While they are great at sharing the ball on the offensive side of the ball, they were also one of the best teams in the country in forcing teams to beat them one-on-one. If they can keep from turning it over and not allowing the Mountaineers to get out in transition, this team can make it extremely hard for West Virginia to score. If the outside shot is falling for Murray State, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have a legit shot at pulling off the upset. Take Murray State! 

3* NCAA Tournament TOTAL ANNIHILATOR  on Butler UNDER

I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's East Region action that has No. 7 Arkansas taking on No. 10 Butler. Those that just look at the numbers from the regular-season will think this is gong to be a high-scoring game. Both teams average right around 80 ppg and both are allowing on average in the high 70's. 

The thing is, the defensive intensity is taken to a different level in the NCAA Tournament and teams also simply don't shoot as well because of all the hype and pressure that comes with these games. The other thing is both offenses weren't exactly clicking down the stretch. 

While Arkansas put up 80 in a win over Florida in the SEC Tournament, that was the only time in their last 4 games they reached 70 points. Same thing with Butler, who scored 70 or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games. I think we get enough defense here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

5* NCAA Tournament Rd of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall +

I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a big dog against the Shockers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. Marshall's head coach is Dan D'Antoni, who is the brother of Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni. As you might have guessed the two have similar philosophies on the offensive side and want to try and outscore teams by outshooting them from long-distance. 

It worked really well down the stretch for Marshall, who punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the C-USA Tournament. The Thundering Herd average 10-made 3-pointers a game and have 7 different players who shoot 33% or better from deep. That long-range attack helped them average 84.3 ppg. 

While Wichita State has the offensive fire-power to hang with Marshall and likely ultimately win this game, they are definitely on upset alert. That's because the Shockers aren't as good defensively as they have been in years past. One of their biggest weaknesses was defending the 3-point shot, making this a horrible matchup out of the gates. I think the Thundering Herd give them a scare and maybe win this one outright. Take Marshall! 

3* NCAA Tournament TOTAL MASSACRE on Marshall UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's first round action out of the East Region that has Marshall taking on Wichita State. There's no denying that these are two explosive offensive teams. The betting public is going to simply look at the offensive numbers of these two teams and run to the window to take the OVER. The books are well aware of this and have certainly inflated this total to a price where I think the value is on the other side. 

One thing to keep in mind with teams like Wichita State and Marshall, who rely a lot on the 3-point shot, is that first game of the tournament can prove to be difficult for teams to shoot well. The defensive intensity is also at it's highest, so there's not going to be as many easy looks like their will be in the regular season. 

Note that Marshall has seen the UNDER cash in 23 of their last 31 games when they are up against a dominant rebounding team like Wichita State that's outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game. UNDER is also 15-5 in the Shockers last 20 games as a neutral court favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 tournament games overall. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAA Tournament BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Buffalo +

I like the value here with the Bulls catching a big number against the Wildcats. There's been plenty of talk about how Arizona got the shaft on their seed and I think it has a lot of people jumping on the Wildcats laying single-digits here. As good as Arizona is, this Buffalo team is no joke. 

The Bulls cruised to the MAC Tournament title, winning all 3 of their tournament games by double-digits. They also showed extremely well in non-conference against the likes of Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Syracuse and St Bonaventure. The Bulls are also 12-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral court games with a perfect 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Take Buffalo! 

5* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Stephen F Austin +

I love the value here with the Lumberjacks catching double-digits against Texas Tech in Thursday's first round action out of the East Region. Stephen F. Austin has a lot of great qualities for success in the NCAA Tournament. The Lumberjacks have great depth and balance on the offensive side of the ball. They also bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball and as a result led the nation in turnover percentage and steels. That pressure often leads to a lot of good looks on the offensive side of the ball, especially from long-range, where Stephen F. Austin is deadly from. 

As for Texas Tech, this is a team that really lost its mojo down the final leg of the season. The Red Raiders went just 2-5 over their final 7 games and the two wins could have easily been losses, as both came by 4-points or less. Rarely do you see a team that comes into the Big Dance struggling flip the switch and go on a deep run. If Texas Tech struggles with the pressure of the Lumberjacks, they not only aren't going to cover, but they may lose this game outright. Take Stephen F. Austin! 

3* NCAA Tournament ATS HEAVY HITTER on Miami

I like the value here with the Hurricanes on the money line, as the Ramblers continue to get a lot of love in your classic 12 vs a 5 upset. Miami has a lot more talent than people realize and are extremely athletic. Not to take anything away from Loyola-Chicago, but I just think they are going to have a really hard time against this Hurricanes team. 

I also don't think that Miami head coach Jim Larranaga gets near enough credit for how he can impact a tournament game. Larranaga is one of the best in the business at breaking down the Xs and Os and will have his team ready for anything the Ramblers throw at them. Take Miami!