5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. 

The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half. 

Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Maryland +

The betting public is going to be all over No. 4 ranked Virginia, as the books are begging for action on the Cavaliers as a short road favorite against the Terps. While Maryland comes into this game with an identical 6-0 record and are now ranked No. 24 in the country, I think people are sleeping on this team. 

While they are starting to get some respect, I don't think people realize just how talented and how well Maryland is playing right now. They got two experienced playmakers who can both score in bunches in Cowan and Fernando and a trio of freshmen that are playing at a high level. 

We know Virginia is going to be tough to score on, but the offense can be dreadful at times. Maryland is has shot 50% or better in each of their last 3 games and we saw the Cavaliers allow Dayton to shoot 54.3% a couple games back. Terps aren't just all offense, as they are only giving up 66 ppg, while holding teams to 39% from the field and 29% from deep. Take Maryland! 

3* NCAAB Vegas Line MISTAKE on Old Dominion -

I like the value here with Old Dominion as a short home favorite against the Rams. Jeff Jones has really turned the Monarchs into a consistent threat in C-USA and it's because of the emphasis that is put on the defensive side of the ball. ODU is once again locking down opposing teams, as they enter this game allowing just 58.3 ppg and 37.2% from the field. They get even more stingy at home, where they allow just 54.5 ppg and 32.7% shooting. 

VCU is a quality team and while Shaka Smart is no longer with he Rams, they are still a household name. I think that's playing into the number here, as I think this is a really tough spot for VCU against this caliber a defense in their first true road game of the season. Note they don't exactly come in shooting it well, as they have hit a mere 42% in each of their last 2 games. 

Rams are just 4-9 ATS last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Clearly when the books make VCU a dog it's for good reason. Take Old Dominion. 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER  on Temple +

I really like the Owls to go into Mizzou Arena and take down the Tigers. I've just not been impressed at all with Missouri, as they can't score the basketball. Tigers come into this game averaging a mere 63.6 ppg. I get they have played Iowa State, Oregon St and Kansas St, but they only had 68 points vs Central Arkansas and a mere 55 in a 3-point win over Kennesaw State. 

Temple is a very strong defensive team, which is bad news for the Tigers. Owls had one bad offensive game against VCU where they shot 32% and scored 51 points (only loss this year). Every other game they have scored 75 or more, including 81 against the likes of Georgia. I just don't see Mizzu being able to keep pace. Take Temple! 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago +

Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out. 

I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season. 

Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

3* NBA Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY  on Knicks +

I'm jump on the red-hot Knicks as a big dog against Detroit. New York comes in having won 3 straight and all 3 have been as a decently priced dog. They won 117-109 at Boston as a 14.5-point dog, 114-109 at home to the Pelicans as a 7.5-point dog and most recently 103-98 at Memphis as a 8-point dog. 

Now we see them as a similarly priced dog here against a Pistons team that I think is a notch below those teams they just beat. Detroit has won 6 of 8 and covered 5 in a row, but that's giving us the value with the Knicks. 

Hosting Atlantic Division teams hasn't been great for the Pistons of late. Detroit is a mere 5-16 in their last 21 home games against the teams from the Atlantic. Look for the Knicks to keep it close and don't be surprised if they win outright. Take New York! 

5* NBA No Limit TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Warriors UNDER

Books have completely missed the mark here. The Warriors will be without both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Sure they still have KD and Klay Thompson, but it's just not the same without those two on the court. 

Not to mention we know the Magic are going to give max effort here on the defensive side of the ball, as everyone brings it when they get a shot at Golden State and they have to be thinking about potentially stealing a win with the Warriors short-handed. 

I think Golden State matches that defensive intensity as they have really played well on that side of the ball the last two games and this Orlando offense is limited and haven't shot it great of late. 

Look for a slower than normal pace and for this to fly under the mark set by the books. UNDER is 26-10-1 in Warriors last 37 off a game they didn't cover the spread and 4-1 in Magic's last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take UNDER! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Boston College -

It's been quite the impressive start to the season for Minnesota, who has started out 5-0 and just took home the Vancouver Showcase title with a win over Washington in the finale. They also have early victories against the likes of Utah and Texas A&M. 

I believe all that has the Gophers getting a little to much respect here on the road against a talented BC team that off to a strong 4-1 start of their one. They too are coming off an impressive win, as they took down Loyola-Chicago 78-66 as a 4-point dog. 

I also don't love the spot for Minnesota, who has to be a bit jet-lagged from their recent trip to Vancouver, plus all the distractions with Thanksgiving. Now back on the road in what figures to be a hostile environment for the ACC/Big Ten showdown. Simply put, there's just too much value with the Eagles at basically a pick'em at home. Take Boston College! 

4* NBA Vegas ATS Heavy HITTER on Magic +

The Lakers are rolling right now, as they have won 9 of their last 11. However, to no surprise, they haven't exactly been a great bet during this hot streak. In fact, LA is just 5-6 ATS during this stretch. The books are simply inflating their lines to where it's really hard for them to cover. 

That's exactly what I see here. Orlando was responsible for one of those two losses, as they beat LA 130-117 at home back on Nov. 17th. It's been a part of an impressive stretch here for the Magic, as they have gone 6-1-1 ATS last 8. I fully expect Orlando to hang around here and keep this well within the number. 

Note this is also a huge bounce back spot for the Magic, who lost 112-87 at Denver in their last game. Magic are 12-4-1 ATS last 17 off a loss by more than 10 points. Take Orlando! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wizards +

I love the value here with Washington as a home dog against the Pelicans. It certainly hasn't been the start to the season the Wizards were expecting, as they sit at 6-12 thru their first 18 games. They have won 4 of their last 7 and I still have a lot of confidence in this team getting back on track. 

The even bigger key here is this being a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans had to play at New York yesterday and were at Philadelphia on Wednesday, so not only is this a back-to-back road set, but it's their 3rd game away from home in the last 4 days, which I think is only worse given it's come right around Thanksgiving. I think we saw some of the fatigue show in yesterday's loss to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. 

Pelicans are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU loss. Take Washington! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Florida

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY  on Celtics -

This just feels like the perfect spot and opponent for Boston to get right against. The Celtics come in having lost 3 straight and are fresh off an ugly 117-109 loss at home to the Knicks as a 14.5-point favorite. Boston is now sitting at 9-9 overall and I just think we get a big time effort here with  the possibility of going under .500. 

The Hawks haven't won a game since they squeaked out a win over the Heat at home back on Nov. 3. They just lost at home to the Raptors by 16 as a similarly priced 8-point dog. Keep in mind Toronto was kind of in the same spot as Boston when they visited Atlanta, as the Raptors had hit a bit of a lull following their hot start. 

Celtics have gone an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Boston! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Memphis +

I'lll gladly take the points here with Memphis in this neutral site showdown with Oklahoma State. There's a buzz around this Tigers team with Penny Hardaway the new head coach. He's going to turn Memphis into a powerhouse with his ability to recruit and I think they will be showing a lot of value this year. 

They already went on the road and covered against a very good LSU team, losing by just 9 as a 11.5-point dog. They did so despite a red-hot shooting night for LSU, who hit on 54% of their shots.

I think they are the better team here. Oklahoma State also has a road loss, but there's was at Charlotte as a 13-point favorite. This team is going to struggle this year, as they only returned 3 scholarship players. Take Memphis! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago -

I'll gladly back the Ramblers at this price. Loyola-Chicago should have zero problem here covering the number against the Eagles in this neutral site showdown in Fort Myers, Florida. Ramblers laid an egg out of the gates and lost at home to Furman, but have rolled off 3 straight wins, including a 82-66 victory over Richmond as a 7-point neutral site favorite. 

The Eagles are headed in the right direction and will surprise some teams in ACC play, but still got a ways to go. We already seen them lose at home to IUPUI as a 16-point favorite. Ramblers are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing on 1 or less days of rest. Take Loyola-Chicago! 

5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month. 

Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -

I got no problem laying this number with the Badgers against the Cardinal. Wisconsin is a team that I think was highly undervalued coming into the year. While they are starting to get some love (ranked #25), I still think there's a lot of value backing them. 

Big reason Wisconsin is undervalued is they are coming off a season in which they went just 7-11 in the Big Ten and failed to make the NCAA Tournament fro the first time in 20 years. A big reason for their struggles was injuries. They got all 5 starters back and have already won on the road over Xavier by 9-points. Stanford just lost at UNC by 18 and was lucky to keep it that close. Should be an easy double-digit win here for the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/Heat UNDER

Total is too high here for this matchup. Brooklyn's not the same offensive team after losing their leading scorer in Caris LeVert and Miami's offense doesn't run the same without starting point guard Goran Dragic, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. 

Heat have failed to score 100 points in each of their last 2, including a mere 97 last time out at home to the Lakers, who aren't exactly a top notch defensive team. Add in the familiarity with these two teams having just played each other a week ago, I look for both offenses to struggle to get going. In large part because I think Miami's defense will show up in a big way here, but the offense will continue to struggle to score without Dragic. 

UNDER 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in this series. It's also 7-2 in Miami's last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 in the Nets last 10 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bradley +

I'll take the points with the Braves in this neutral site showdown with the Mustangs. Bradley is a dangerous team in the MVC, as they bring back 4 starters from a 20-win team. They are 3-1 to start the year with the only loss coming to Illinois-Chicago by a mere 1-point. 

SMU is off a miserable 2017-18 campaign, where injuries derailed what could have been a special season. A lot of people will expect the Mustangs to bounce back, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. They lost another NBA talent in Shake Milton, their third pro in the last two years. Two of their key guys back this year are both questionable to play in Everertt Ray and Jarrey Foster.

SMU has already lost by 10 as a 9.5-point home favorite to Southern Miss and by 6 as a 10-point home favorite to Lipscomb. The Braves are better than both of those teams. Take Bradley! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona -

Iowa State is getting way too much love here against the Wildcats. This might not be your typically Arizona team that has the talent to be a serious national title contender, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the country. I like that they are flying under the radar coming into the year, as they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder. 

Iowa State is going to be a dangerous team come March if they can get healthy, but they are playing without preseason All-Big 12 guard Lindell Wigginton, who is out with a foot injury. On top of that, returning starters Cameron Lard (suspension) and Solomon Young (Groin) are also not playing. 

I get the Cyclones have looked great so far without those key pieces, but all 3 games for them have come at home, where they have quite the home court edge. This one is being played in Hawaii at the Maui Invitational. Take Arizona! 

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns +

I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two. 

The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte. 

I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic OVER

These two teams will have no problem going over the total here, as both sides don't play much defense. New York comes in allowing 116.3 ppg on the road, where opponents are shooting 48% from the field and 37.4% from deep. It's very similar in Orlando, where the Magic are giving up 111 ppg at home, while letting opponents shoot 47.5% and 39% from deep. 

Last game for the Magic they combined for 147 at home against the Lakers. Each of New York's last two have seen 130+. Over is also 10-3 in Orlando's last 13 off a win by double-digits and 21-9 in the Knicks last 30 when they enter a contest having failed to cover 4 of 5 of their last 6. Take the OVER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Clippers UNDER

Books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Saturday's NBA action between the Clippers and Nets. LAC is coming off a big 3-game home stand where they went 3-0 with wins over the Bucks, Warriors and Spurs. Now they travel across the country for game against the Nets, who are without Caris LeVert and might be missing Hollis-Jefferson. 

UNDER has cashed 5 of the last 6 times that the Clippers have made the trip to Brooklyn. UNDER is also 25-12 in Brooklyn's last 37 as a home dog of 6 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 at home off an upset win as a dog. Take the UNDER! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +

Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford. 

Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. 

Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +

It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago. 

I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team. 

Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. John’s -

The Red Storm should have no problem securing a win on the road against Rutgers. St. John's is a team to watch out for. This is now year three under head coach Chris Mullin and the team showed some promise late last year. They get back arguably the best player in the Big East in junior guard Shamorie Ponds and got a huge boost when Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron was cleared to play. Both are averaging 20+ ppg early on. 

I like the direction Rutgers is going and they won't go down without a fight a home, but I just think the Red Storm are the far superior team in this one. Rutgers just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to compete with the likes of Ponds and Heron. Take St. John's! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NCAAB No Doubt Vegas ATS BLOWOUT on Ohio State -

The value here is with Ohio State as a short favorite against the Bluejays. The Buckeyes surprised a lot of people last year and I think they are going to do it again, as a lot of people are expecting a step back after they lost their star duo of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae-Sean Tate. Not me. 

Last year's surprise run came in the first year under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who is known for getting the most out of the talent he has to work with. He had to work extra hard with the talent he was able to get at Butler. Not so much at Ohio State, where they get big time recruits. This year's freshman class, mixed with some talented veterans will be tough to beat. 

We already seen them go on the road and beat Cincinnati by 8 as a 4.5-point dog and then absolutely annihilate Purdue-Ft Wayne by 46 as a 18.5-point favorite. Creighton is in a very similar spot, having lost their top two scorers and only returning 2 starters, but they don't have the talent that the Buckeyes do. Take Ohio State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Niagara +

I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back. 

We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year. 

The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls/Celtics UNDER

The Bulls have been an UNDER machine with the struggles they are having offensively combined with the effort they are giving on the defensive side of the ball. UNDER is 3-0 in Chicago's last 3, 6-1 in their last 7 and 9-3 in their last 12. 

Considering Boston comes in having lost 4 of 5 over a 5-game road trip with the only win against the Suns, I have to believe they give a big effort defensively to make sure they get back on track. As for the offense, they haven't been shooting well of late. They scored just 94 and shot 38.7% from the field last time out against the Blazers. Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 to 107 or less and if they can simply do that, this won't come close to the number set here. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total set by the books. It's hard to explain how the Rockets went from such an offensive juggernaut to one that is headed into the middle of November ranked 28th in the NBA at 102.7 ppg. They put up 115 at home last time out against the Pacers, but had gone 4 straight games prior to that where they failed to hit 100 (scored fewer than 90 twice). 

The Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring game against Milwaukee at home, where they lost 121-114. That's now 3 straight losses for Denver after their 9-1 start. I don't think their early success was a fluke and this should be a max effort spot defensively for the Nuggets to snap their skid. 

While the offense has been a disaster for Houston the defense has been really good. The Rockets are allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. They got no choice but to keep playing hard on that side of the ball as they try to dig themselves out of their poor start. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -

I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season. 

Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier. 

Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier. 

I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois! 

3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on UMASS -

Really like the value here with the Minutemen laying a short number at home against the Crimson. I like the direction this UMass team is headed under Matt McCall. They got a legit scorer in junior Luwane Pipkins (21.2 ppg last year) and a sharp-shooting sophomore guard in Carl Pierre (47% from 3's) to lead the way. They also got a big who can dominate in Rashaan Holloway and a couple of transfers in Curtis Cobb and Jonathan Laurent who are starting. 

Harvard is a team that has high expectations this year of making the the NCAA Tournament, but we just saw them lose 81-71 at home to Northeastern. Until they get back their two studs from injury in Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns, this team will struggle to win games. Take UMass! 

4* NCAAB Situational Vegas Insider on Xavier +

I'm not buying the Badgers being a road favorite over the Musketeers. Xavier was a No. 1 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, but lost head coach Chris Mack and a trio of playmakers in Trevon Blueitt, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter. I just think the assumption here is that the Musketeers will take a big step back this year. 

I don't think that's the case at all. Mack's assistant Travis Steele is taking over a team that not only returns a lot of talent, but added in some experienced grad transfers and solid freshmen. I get Wisconsin gets everyone back from a team that was decimated by injuries last year, but these are Bo Ryan's Badgers any more. I'm not saying Wisconsin won't be a  strong team, I just think they are getting a little too much respect on the road against a Big East power. Take Xavier! 

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Kings OVER

Books have missed the mark here with the total in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Kings. I just think this is a big overreaction to what we have seen of late from both teams. San Antonio lost 88-95 at Miami and then won 96-89 at home against the Rockets in their last two. Both of those extremely low scoring. Same thing with Sacramento's last game, as they combined for just 187 in a 101-86 loss at home to the Lakers. 

I  look for both teams to get back on track offensively. Kings simply had a bad night at the office against LA. Sacramento has been one of the top offenses in the league early on. They are scoring 115.3 ppg and rank in the top half of the league in both effective field goal percentage and offensive efficiency. 

While the offense has been great, they are giving up 116.8 ppg and the Spurs come in averaging 114.7 ppg on the road. San Antonio is only giving up 107.9 ppg on the season, but are allowing 112.0 ppg away from home. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Troy +

I look for the Trojans to go into Pittsburgh and give the Panthers all they can handle. Pitt has started out 2-0, but there's nothing to be excited about wins over Youngstown State and VMI. There's still a long way for these Panthers to go before they can be taken seriously.

Pitt won just 8 games all of last year, going winless (0-18) in ACC play. They fired head coach Kevin Stallings and several key players either graduated or transferred out of the program. The future figures to be bright under Jeff Capel, but this figures to be a long rebuilding season. 

Troy is one of the top teams out of the Sun Belt and showcased some of their potential in a mere 4-point loss at St Louis as a 12-point dog last time out. Trojans nearly won on the road as a double-digit dog, despite shooting just 38.9% from the field. If they can hit some shots tonight, I definitely could see them winning this outright. Take Troy! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY  on Bowling Green +

I like the value here with the Falcons as a near double-digit dog against the Rams. Bowling Green comes in at 1-1, but the lone loss is nothing to be ashamed of. The Falcons lost 84-80 at St. John's as a 18.5-point underdog. Bowling Green shot 50% against the Red Storm and if they are hitting their shots they are a very difficult team to beat. 

VCU is a program that still gets respect nationally from their success under Shaka Smart and last year the Rams missed out on the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. While VCU has opened up 2-0, neither win has been all that impressive. They have beat Gardner-Webb and Hampton, each by a final score of 69-57. They failed to cover as a 14-point favorite against Garder Webb and there wasn't even a line against Hampton. 

Falcons are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their last game. Take Bowling Green! 

3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Hawks UNDER

There's just too much value here on the UNDER to pass up with this ridiculously high total. I know both of these teams are scoring at a decent clip and have had their struggles defensively, but I just don't see the pace being where it needs to be to eclipse this number. 

Lakers will be in the second game of a back-to-back set, as they played at Sacramento last night. Hawks had yesterday off, but this is their first game out west and will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.

LA won 101-86 over the Kings last night, holding a red-hot Sacramento offense to just 34.8% shooting. I think they are going to be a lot stronger defensively now that they got Tyson Chandler. UNDER is 4-0-1 in Laker's last 5 off a win and 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Southern Miss +

I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a double-digit dog against the Mustangs. Southern Miss is a team you want to look out for early on this season. They are now a few years removed from the NCAA sanctions and will have basically their entire roster back from last year's 16-win team. They are a legit sleeper in C-USA and will be out to make a statement here against a quality program like SMU. 

The Mustangs won their opener at home against Northwestern State, but it wasn't pretty. SMU only won by 11-points as a massive 25.5-point favorite. They shot just 39% from the field, which is a bit concerning given the level of competition they were playing. SMU did lose their go-to-guy in Shake Milton, who led the team with 18.0 ppg). They will also be without projected starting guard Jarrey Foster. Look for Golden Eagles to hang around and maybe win this game outright. Take Southern Miss! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa -

Really like the value here with UNI as a short favorite against UT Arlington. Both teams come in off wins against teams they were all but guarantee to beat. I just think this is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. 

The Mavericks went 21-13 last year, but fired head coach Scott Cross because the AD was upset about not making any NCAA Tournament appears. Cross had won 72 the past 3 seasons. Arlington not only will be adjusting to a new coach (Chris Ogden), but they have to replace all 5 starters, including two of the best players to ever play at the program. 

UNI went just 16-16 last year and 7-11 in the Missouri Valley. First time since 2002 that they were under .500 in conference play. They were better than their record (KenPom had them rated 3rd best team in the MWC). I like head coach Ben Jacobson and he's got the Panthers flying under the radar in 2018. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NCAAB Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Columbia +

I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. Marist might be one of the better teams in the MAAC, but that's not saying much. The Red Foxes went on the road and lost at Army in their opener, doing so despite shooting 51.9% from the field.

Columbia is a team that could surprise in the Ivy League this year. They have 4 starters back, as well as several of their top reserves. Last year a young team struggled to win away from home (1-14), but now they should start beating these teams on the road where they have the edge. Look for the Lions to pull off the minor upset. Take Columbia! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks/Raptors UNDER

I think we could see a bit of a sluggish start here for Toronto. You have an earlier start time than normal with the 3:05 EST tip. You also have the Raptors having not played since Wednesday when they concluded a 4 game road trip in Sacramento. 

I also think with some fresh legs we could see Toronto get after it a little more defensively with this being a division game and the Knicks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. New York has scored 108 or less in 5 of their last 6 and average just 105 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 6-2 in Toronto's last 8 vs a team with a losing record, as well as 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -

This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one. 

We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns. 

They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine +

I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp. 

It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg. 

I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on LSU -

I got a lot of respect for the UNC-Greensboro program. I know they got 3 starters back from a team that gave Gonzaga a scare in the NCAA Tournament, but I just don't see them being able to keep this within 15 points against a very talented LSU team on the Tigers home floor. 

LSU cruised to a 94-63 win at home over SE Louisiana, easily covering as a 20.5-point favorite. it could have been even worse if the Tigers wanted. They called off the dogs on defense after taking a 45-18 lead at the half. 

As for the Spartans, they had to rally from a 1st half deficit to beat North Carolina A&T. Winning by a final score of 74-66 as a 16-point favorite. They shot 50% from the field and barely won against an inferior team. That's a bad sign, as they aren't going to be shooting anywhere close to 50% on the road vs LSU. Look for the Tigers to have the cover in the bag early. Take LSU! 

5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER

This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg. 

I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go. 

UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Bucks

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Suns +

Most are going to just assume Boston will come out pissed after losing two straight and easily cover this spread against a Suns team that just lost at home to the Nets by 22 points as a 2-point dog. I just don't think it's going to play out like that. 

As good as the Celtics are, a lot of teams struggle with these long road trips, especially when they are going clear across the country like Boston has. I just think they could struggle to bring the energy here against a bad Suns team and two much bigger games on deck at Utah and Portland. 

This is also an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix. Anytime a team gets embarrassed like the Suns did in their last game, they typically bring a little extra next time out. That should be enough for them to hang around and keep this within the number. Take Phoenix! 

3* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Rockets -

Houston has now won 3 straight since their shocking 1-5 start to the season, but it's not from them lighting up the scoreboard like we saw last year. It's been outstanding defense that has got the Rockets back on track. 

I think because the offense hasn't looked great, they are still flying a bit under the radar. I certainly think they should be favored on the road over OKC. While the Thunder have won 6 straight (covered 5 in a row), they likely won't have Russell Westbrook.

Even if he plays, I still would like Houston at this line, as it's only a matter of time before the Rockets start connecting on their shots. There's too much talent on that roster for them to continue to shoot 42.4% from the field. 

Rockets are 30-18 ATS in their last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 28-14 in their last 42 as   a road favorite. Take Houston! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on George Washington -

I like the value here with the Colonials. George Washington was upset in their season opener at home by Stoney Brook. That's not as bad a loss as you might think. As for Siena, they went on the road and lost by just 10 as a 19.5-point dog to Providence. 

Those results would have most tempted to take the points with the Saints in this one, but I look for the Colonials to bounce back in a big way at home. Georgia Washington really beat themselves in their game against Stoney Brook. They shot 47.3% from the field to Stony Brook's 38.6%. What killed the Colonials is that they went 16 of 34 (47.1%) from the free throw line and turned it over 17 times. Both areas I expect to see major improvement in tonight. Take George Washington! 

4* NBA Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +

The betting public is going to see this line and feel great about backing the Nuggets as a short road favorite against a Grizzlies team that is off back-to-back losses. I see this line as a full on trap by the bookmakers. It tells me the books don't expect Denver to perform well in this spot. 

I agree with them. The Nuggets are coming off a 115-107 win over a Boston team a lot of people expect to be in the Finals. They are now 9-1 and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Add in all the Kyrie Irving and Jamal Murray BS that's in the media, and I just don't see them coming out ready to play against a Memphis team that wasn't good last year and so far doesn't look like anything special. 

Grizzlies didn't have Mike Conley last year and they do now, so this team is going to be better than last year. It will take a few games for them to get the chemistry back. They like the direction they are going. Part of the reason they are 5-4 is they have played 6 of their first 9 games on the road. They are 3-0 at home with all 3 wins coming by double-digits. Big statement game for them and I think they get the victory. Take Memphis! 

3* CBB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Kentucky +

I like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a near double-digit dog at home to Marshall. Many will recall the Thundering Herd upsetting No. 4 seed Wichita State in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament. Head coach Dan D'Antoni runs a similar run-and-gun offense to that of the Houston Rockets, where his younger brother coaches. This will be a very public team and I don't think the books will hesitate to inflate the number on them. 

The Colonels decided it was time for a change and fired head coach Dan McHale. They replaced him with A. W. Hamilton, who actually played at Marshall. This is one of those special games, where you put a little more into getting a win, especially with it being the season opener. Eastern Kentucky will need to find some new guys to compliment their star in Nick Mayo, who might be the best player in the Ohio Valley. I believe they will and this could be a surprise team in the OVC. I think they keep it closer than expected and got a legit shot at winning the game outright. Take Eastern Kentucky! 

5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran +

I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March. 

This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings. 

UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UCLA -

The Bruins should have no problem here covering this short humber at home against Purdue Fort Wayne. The Mastadons posted a winning record last year and get back 3x All-Summit 1st Team guard John Konchar, while UCLA never reached their full potential and were knocked out in Dayton in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. 

This year there are no distractions and the Bruins are loaded with talent that's ready to make a run at a Pac-12 title. I fully expect them to win here by 20+ and have this line covered by halftime. Take UCLA! 

4* NBA Southeast TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Hornets OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Atlanta has played in 3 straight shootouts that have gone over the total, but I expect a much better defensive effort here on 2 days of rest. Hawks are also off a win and cover. UNDER is 21-5 in Atlanta's last 26 off a cover and 8-2 in their last 10 on 2 days of rest. 

I also think Atlanta's offense could struggle to reach their season average of 110.8 ppg. Charlotte's defense was on point last time out, holding the Cavs to just 94 points. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 43.5% or worse from the field. 

UNDER is also a solid 11-4 in the Hawks last 15 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Wofford +

A lot of people are going to think this line is a mistake. The No. 8 ranked Tar Heels are barely a double-digit favorite on the road against Wofford from the Southern Conference. Those that have done their homework will understand this line and the value that comes with the Terriers. 

Wofford brings back all 5 starters from last year's team that went 21-13, including a 79-75 win at North Carolina last year. I get the Tar Heels will be out for revenge, but it means every bit as much to the Terriors to win again. UNC has the chance to be good, but must work in a lot of new pieces and replace one of the ACC's best point guard is in Joel Berry, as well as one of their best all-around players in Theo Pinson. 

I expect this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Terrior did in fact pull off the upset. Take Wofford! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK  on Bulls/Knicks UNDER

Hard to not like the value here with the UNDER at this price. Chicago's playing short-handed early on this season, as they are without starters Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn, as well as key reserves Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine. In their last 6 games they have scored 107 or fewer points in 5 games. The only exception was against Golden State when the Warriors gave up 74 points in the 2nd half with the game way out of reach. 

New York is in a similar spot, as they are still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to play his first game. Rookie Kevin Knox and Courtney Lee are both out and now leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. may not be able to play, as he's dealing with a back injury. He's listed as questionable, but given this is the 2nd game of a back-to-back (played last night in Washington), have to think he will be given the night off. 

Just not enough offensive talent here to eclipse the total set here and both teams are playing hard defensively. UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 Knicks games when they are facing a team with a losing record and 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 off a SU loss. Take UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER

The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one.

Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep.

With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Rockets +

It's been a roller-coaster start to the season for Houston, who no one thought would be sitting under. 500 (3-5) in November. However, it's a big shocker when you consider Harden has missed 3 games and Paul has missed 2. The only two guys to start all 8 games are Capella and Tucker. 

No way this team was going to keep playing as poorly as they were. They got their two stars back in the lineup and have won 2 straight. I look for them to make it 3 in a row with a win tonight at Indiana. The Pacers are quality team and are tough to beat at home, but I just think they are a bit outclassed here and in a big letdown spot after defeating Boston 102-101 on a last second 3-pointer by Oladipo. 

Rockets are a rock solid 58-38 ATS in all road games over the last 3 seasons, 28-14 ATS in their last 42 as a road favorite and 18-7 ATS in their last 25 as road favorite of 6 points or less. Take Houston! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Spurs UNDER

These two teams could have a difficult time just getting to 200 points. While scoring is up for the league as a whole, the Magic haven't caught on board. There's teams out there scoring 120+ on a nightly basis. Orlando has hit 100 points just 3 times in 8 games. Their last 3 games they have scored, 91, 99 and 95. 

Spurs are always a great fundamental team and execute at a high level. They are really playing well defensively right now, as they are giving up just 99.8 ppg over their last 4. San Antonio will have no problem keeping this Magic offense in check. I'm willing to be the Spurs won't score enough to eclipse this mark.

UNDER is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 vs a team with a losing record 7-0 in the Magic's last 7 vs a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in the series. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards -

Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less. 

Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington! 

3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets -

I love the value here with Denver as a short home favorite against the Jazz tonight. The Nuggets have been one of the big surprises early on, as they have opened up 7-1 and are a perfect 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by 12.2 ppg. 

Utah is a solid team, but I just don't think they have the good to keep this one close with how well Denver is playing. Especially given that the Jazz are playing on no rest after suiting up last night at home against the Grizzlies. It's also their 3rd game overall in the last 4 days. A situation in which the Jazz have gone a mere 16-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Utah is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Denver! 

4* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Wolves UNDER

I just think that given how good the Warriors offense has been early on and this being a nationally televised game on ESPN, we are seeing quite the inflated total for tonight's showdown between Golden State and Minnesota. 

Last time out the Timberwolves knocked off the Jazz 128-125 as a 7-point home dog, which is worth noting, as the UNDER is 10-1 in Minnesota's last 11 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. Not to mention, there's no doubt the Timberwolves are going to give everything they got against the Warriors, regardless of the tension inside the locker room. 

UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 games against the Western Conference and 7-2-1 in their last 10 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. UNDER is also 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these two franchises. Take the UNDER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Suns

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Jazz

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder UNDER

I'm expecting a big time effort here from Washington at home, as they try and get things going in the right direction after their 1-6 start. They still haven't won a game on their home court this season. You can count on them laying it all on the line here and it will certainly help that Dwight Howard is going to make his season debut. 

Big reason Washington has struggled is their defense and lack of rebounding, the two areas that Howard figures to impact the most. As for OKC and them not going off to push this over, this is a tough spot for the Thunder. They are coming off a 111-107 win at Charlotte last night, where they had to use a ton of energy rallying from a 19-point 2nd half deficit. I just think that effort and the travel will have them playing at a slower pace than normal.

UNDER is 31-13 in OKC's last 44 as a road dog, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 11-2 in their last 13 after scoring 110 or more points in 3 straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -

I don't think anyone saw Houston sitting at 1-5 thru their first 6 games. I know they just lost 104-85 at home to the Blazers and aren't expected to have James Harden back until tomorrow's showdown with the Bulls, but I just can't pass up on the Rockets at this price against the Nets. 

Brooklyn's not a good team. They are coming off a 1-point win at home against the Pistons, but shot just 42.6% from the field. Their other two victories are against the Knicks and Cavs. Houston simply can't continue to shoot as poorly as they have. They were 31 of 96 (32.3%) from the field against the Blazers. 

Big time bounce back spot for the Rockets off that embarrassing performance and the Nets are just the team to get them back on track. Houston is a solid 27-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off a blowout loss by 15 or more. Take Houston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Hawks UNDER 

The Kings come into this one off a 107-99 win at Orlando as a 4.5-point dog, while Atlanta enters off an ugly 136-114 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point dog. Those two results set up a very profitable system on tonight's game going under the total. 

UNDER is 40-13 (76%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a team off an upset win as a road dog (Kings) playing against a team off a blowout road loss by 20 or more points. 

It's also worth noting the Kings have won 4 straight as an underdog and are now 5-3 on the season, which sets up another profitable system, as the UNDER is 23-5 (82%) with a total of 200 or more with a team off 2 or more outright wins as a road dog and have a winning record on the season. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER

Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same. 

Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points. 

76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Thunder/Hornets UNDER

Books have set the total too high for tonight's NBA action that has the Hornets hosting the Thunder. Both these teams are playing well coming into this game and I expect big efforts from each side on the defensive end. 

OKC has played well defensively this year and will be extra-motivated to get their first road win of the season. Charlotte has also been a strong defensive team early on and will definitely be up for this one against Westbrook and company. 

UNDER is 30-13 in OKC's last 43 as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 vs a team with a winning record. 

There's also a great system in play. UNDER is 27-8 (77%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with a team off a home win by 10 or more against an opponent off a home win where they score at least 110 points. This system fits both of these teams! Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. 

Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. 

Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. 

Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons +

Love this price and spot with Detroit in a big time revenge game against the Celtics. These two teams just played in Detroit on Saturday, which Boston won by 20 (109-89) as a slim 3.5-point road favorite. Now the Celtics are a near double-digit favorite at home in a game that is going to mean a lot more to the Pistons than it is Boston. 

Detroit simply had an off night shooting against the Celtics on Saturday. They went just 33 of 89 (37.1%) from the field. Easily their worst shooting performance of the season. They are going to have a much better idea of what Boston is trying to do to them defensively and let's not forget the Pistons were 4-0 before that loss. 

Detroit is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Celtics on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Detroit! 

3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Hawks +

Atlanta has already went into Cleveland and had their way with the Cavs 133-111 this season. While the Hawks will be playing on no rest, there's too much value here with Atlanta to pass up. The Cavaliers are a complete mess. They have already fired their head coach and now Kevin Love is out with a foot injury. 

Cleveland plays no defense, as opponents are shooting 51.2% from the field and 42.2% from long-distance. Offensively they have been dreadful from behind the 3-point line and it's not going to get any better with Love out. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Hawks won by double-digits in Cleveland again. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Lakers +

I've really liked what I have seen out of this Lakers team and while they come in with a 2-4 record, they could easily be 4-2 and have a much different perception than we see now. With Ingram back from his suspension and the way the LA offense has clicked early, I think they are going to score at will here against the dysfunctional Timberwolves. 

The Jimmy Butler drama has been a massive distraction for everyone involved in Minnesota. The sooner they make a move and move past this thing the better, but for now they are a team I will look to fade. The Timberwolves just lost at home to the bucks by a final score of 125-95. That really tells you how out of sync this team is. Not only are they not playing defense, the shots aren't falling on offense. Take Los Angeles! 

5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat -

Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog.

I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. 

That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! 

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER

Great value here with the UNDER Saturday night in San Antonio, as the Spurs will host LeBron James and the Lakers. LA has been in a bunch of high-scoring games so far this season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 and all 5 have seen at least 235 points. That includes a ridiculous 143-142 Spurs win in LA on 10/22. 

I think having just played each other will have both teams much better prepared defensively, which should lead to a lot lower-scoring game. I also don't think the pace will be there for the Lakers, who are playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

I know the Lakers have been allowing teams to shoot extremely well from the field, but the UNDER is 10-1 in LA's last 11 after 3 straight games allowing teams to shoot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -

Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. 

I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. 

Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Knicks UNDER

Public loves to back the OVER in games involving the Warriors and will be running to get their ticket on the OVER after Golden State just put up 144 points at home against the Wizards, which saw a combined score of 166. Even with that high-scoring game, the UNDER has cashed in 3 of the Warriors 5 games this season. 

I just don't think we are going to see 230 points between Golden State and New York. The Knicks just don't have the fire-power offensively and are coming off a game against Miami where they scored just 87 points on 36.3% shooting.

Everyone focuses on the offense of the Warriors, but this is a great defensive team. Opponents are only shooting 42.5% from the field against them. They are exceptional at defending the 3-pointer, as opponents are only hitting 29.3% from deep. 

UNDER is 19-9 in the Warriors last 28 after two straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 125 or more and 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Thunder OVER

Boston has been such a good defense team under Brad Stevens and to no surprise they lead the league in defensive efficiency right out of the gate. The thing is, they have had two really good defensive efforts at home, holding the 76ers to 87 and the Magic to 93, but have allowed 113 (@ Toronto) and 101 (@ New York) in their two road games. 

Oklahoma City put up 120 points in Westbrook's first game back and this team is going to score a lot of points with him and George both healthy. While the offense should be great for the Thunder, the defense is still a work in progress. They also gave up 131 points and let the Kings shoot 54.9% from the field in Westbrook's first game back. 

Boston has a more than capable offense and I look for them to have no problem keeping pace offensively with OKC, who is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, despite Westbrook not playing in their first two games. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Suns

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

4* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Bulls +

The public will be all over Charlotte here with the Hornets laying a short number against a Bulls team that is 0-3 and just released that starting point guard Kris Dunn is out 4-6 weeks. While that injury hurts, he didn't play in either of the first two, including a 2-point loss at home to the Pistons.

They still got a decent 1-2 punch with Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker. LaVine has been outstanding early, as he comes in averaging 32.3 ppg. Chicago is desperate for a win here and I think they get it. Charlotte just lost by 21-points at Toronto and I think they are wearing down from a brutal scheduling start to their season. After opening at home against the Bucks, they are getting ready to play their 4th straight on the road, all in a span of just 6 days. 

With a home game against these same Bulls on deck, I think it makes it that much harder for the Hornets to get up for this game. It's also worth noting they haven't responded well to blowout losses in the past. They are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 off a loss by more than 10 points. Take Chicago! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Clippers

No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.

3* NBA Over/Under Total MASSACRE on Sixers/Pistons UNDER

With Ben Simmons doubtful to play for Philadelphia, I don't see these two teams coming close to the total set here by the books. Without Simmons running the point, the 76ers aren't going to get near as many easy looks, as he's one of the best passers in the game. 

We also saw this Philadelphia team struggle in their only other road game this season, scoring just 87 points at Boston. As for Detroit, they may be without big man Andre Drummond, who is scoring 17 ppg and 6.5 offensive rebounds. It's also worth noting that while the Pistons are averaging 110.5 ppg, the teams they have played are giving up on average 116.7 ppg, so they aren't as potent as you might think. 

These two teams both pick up the defensive intensity against quality opponents. UNDER is 5-1 in the 76ers last 6 vs a team with a winning record and 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Pacific Division PLAY OF THE WEEK on Suns +

Great price and spot to jump on Phoenix as a big double-digit dog against the Warriors. No question we are seeing inflated lines on Golden State to start the year and the Warriors have opened up 0-3 ATS. 

Not only is Golden State being asked to lay more than they should, but this is also a team that isn't really all that concerned with he regular-season, especially this early on. The only thing that matters to the Warriors is getting that 3-peat. They lost outright last night at Denver, scoring just 98 points. Most will assume they bounce back here against a bad Suns team, but they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd overall in the last 4 nights. Not to mention Phoenix, along with every other team, is going to give Golden State their very best. 

Look for the Suns to keep this closer than expected. Note they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Phoenix! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks OVER

I look for the Bucks and Knicks to have no problem cashing in the OVER in Monday's NBA action. This is not your same old Milwaukee team from previous years. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has put a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot and it's shown. 

The Bucks attempted just 24.7 3-pointers and made 8.8 per game last year. While it's really early, in their first two games they have averaged 40 attempts and 15.5 made 3-pointers. They have combined for 225 against the Hornets and 119 against the Pacers, two good defensive teams. 

Now they face the a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in all 3 of their games and despite shooting just 42.4% from the field, New York is averaging 110.7 ppg. 

OVER is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35 off two straight games where they went over the total and 17-3 in their last 20 after two straight with a combined score of 215 or more. 

We also find a great system in play, as the OVER has gone 44-18 (71%) since 1996 in games where you have a total of 210 or more, where the road team is off a loss by 3-points or less against a team that scored 115 or more in their previous game. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here. 

Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright. 

Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%. 

I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Late Night Total MASSACRE  on Rockets/Lakers UNDER

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the total in tonight's highly anticipated showdown between the Rockets and Lakers, which will mark the home debut of LeBron James in LA. The Rockets saw 243 combined points in their opener against the Pelicans, but it was New Orleans not Houston who lit up the scoreboard. 

The Lakers saw a 147 combined points in their opener against the Blazers, but they had just 119 to Portland's 128. I really liked the effort we got from LA and this is a team that really needs to play hard defensively to have a chance with their lack of 3-point shooting. With this being James' first home game, I think we get a max effort here from both sides on the defensive end, as each wants to avoid the 0-2 start. 

UNDER is 7-1 in the Rockets last 8 after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game and 8-3 in their last 11 off a loss. UNDER is also 11-1 in Houston's last 12 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets +

I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. 

Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. 

Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! 

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto 

This is too good a price to pass up with the Raptors. All the talk has been about how the Eastern Conference is a race between the 76ers and Celtics after LeBron James went to LA. Toronto is every bit as good as those two with the addition of Khawi Leonard and they showed it last night in their 113-101 win over the Celtics. 

The fact that the Raptors are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set is definitely keeping this lower than it should be. Washington is a playoff team, but not a real threat to make it out of the east. They lost their home opener to a Miami team playing on no rest and the Heat are missing a bunch of guys to injury. I think Toronto is a team on a mission early and will have no problem winning this one on the road. 

Raptors are 40-25 ATS in their last 65 off a win by 10 or more and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when that double-digit win came over a division rival. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

The total here has been set way too high for tonight's game between the Warriors and Jazz. I think  we are getting the value, due to the fact that Utah gave up 117 points on the road to the Kings, but that was more of the Jazz knowing they didn't need a max effort on the defensive side of the ball to beat the likes of Sacramento. 

When Rudy Gobert has been in the lineup, this Utah team has been one of the top defensive teams in the league. There's no question we are going to get the very best they have to offer on that side of the ball against the defending champs. 

While the Warriors are definitely capable of going off, they only managed 108 points at home in their opener against OKC. What we did see from Golden State in their opener was some great defense, as they held the Thunder to just 36.3% shooting. I think we see a very similar outcome to that OKC game, where this comes in around 205-210 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Money Line MASSACRE on Thunder +

I think we are getting a great price here on OKC at basically a pick'em on the road against the Clippers. While the Thunder likely won't have Russell Westbrook for this one, they more than held their own on the road against the Warriors without him in their opener. I look for Oklahoma City to bounce back in a big way against a Clippers team that has little to no shot of making the playoffs out of the west. 

Los Angeles lost their opener at home on Wednesday to the Nuggets 107-98. They played well early, but when it mattered in the 4th quarter they didn't have anyone they could go to to get a basket. Clippers will be tough defensively and play hard, but simply don't have the talent to compete with the top teams in the conference. Take Oklahoma City! 

5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies -

Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. 

I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. 

This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Sixers OVER

This might seem like a big number after watching the 76ers offense manage just 87 points in their opener at Boston, but that Celtics defense is one of the best in the league. That performance isn't going to sit well with Philadelphia and I look for them to come out and lay it on the Bulls offensively at home. 

The key here is that while Chicago is missing a couple key players, they finally have some nice pieces in place to run the up-tempo offense that Hoiberg wants to play. The Bulls got some nice young talent and their only hope of winning is to outscore the opposition. I look for both teams easily eclipse 100 points and for this one to finish a lot closer to 230 than 220. 

In the last two seasons the OVER is 26-10 in the Bulls 36 games when they have been listed as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and the OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Take the OVER!