|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-21-19||Kansas v. Villanova +2||Top||55-56||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a home dog against Kansas. The Jayhawks might be the No. 1 team in the country, but it's been a bit of a revolving door at the top of the college basketball landscape. I just think it has Kansas getting a little to much love here at No. 18 Villanova.
The Wildcats only two losses have come against the likes of Ohio State and Baylor and both of those were on the road. Villanova is 4-0 at home, where they are scoring 84.5 ppg and giving up just 62.2 ppg. This is also the first real test for KU in a true road game and I think it can be a bit of a challenge to go this deep in the season having not played in a real hostile environment.
Jayhawks are a mere 2-10 ATS last 2 seasons in road games and the Wildcats are 33-17 ATS last 3 seasons when playing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Villanova!
|12-20-19||Mavs +8.5 v. 76ers||117-98||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Mavs +8½ -109
I like the value here with the Mavs as a near double-digit dog against the 76ers. Luka Doncic did travel with the team to Philadelphia, but he's unlikely to play. However, Dallas has shown they are more than capable of competing against the top teams without him. In the two games he's missed they have won at Milwaukee and lost by just 6 to the Celtics.
76ers just lost at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite and have been one of the more overvalued teams over the last month and a half. Going back to Nov. 10 Philadelphia is 6-11-3 ATS. In comparison, Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
Mavs are 12-3-2 ATS last 17 off a straight up loss and are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!
|12-20-19||Knicks +10.5 v. Heat||114-129||Loss||-115||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Knicks +10½ -115
New York is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Heat. Knicks have been a money maker since they fired head coach David Fizdale. They are 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS since he was let go. That includes 3 straight covers on the road against the Warriors, Kings and Nuggets.
Winning at Miami won't be easy, but I like their chances of keeping this within 10-points. Heat could definitely struggle to get up for this game, as they are off a huge road win against the 76ers, which concluded a 3-game road trip.
Heat also got off to that great start and as a result the books are starting to overprice them, especially as a favorite. Miami is just 1-4 ATS last 10 when laying points. Take New York!
|12-20-19||Pistons v. Celtics -7||Top||93-114||Win||100||20 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -7 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Boston at home against the Pistons. Celtics should have no problem winning here by double-digits against a struggling Detroit team that will not only be without Blake Griffin, but also Luke Kennard and Christian Wood.
Boston won't have Gordon Hayward but at this point they are accustomed to not having him. They also don't need him to put away this Pistons team. Celtics are also well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 7 days and coming off a big momentum building win at Dallas where they rallied in the 2nd half for a 109-103 win.
Pistons have gone 3-14-1 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Celtics are 10-1 at home) and 3-8 ATS last 11 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Boston!
|12-19-19||Portland State +5.5 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||76-66||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Small Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Portland State +5½ -111
Easy play here on the Vikings getting points against the Lions. I actually think Portland State is going to win this game outright, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. Loyola-Marymount has failed to cover their last two, including a mere 3-point win in their last home game against Prairie View A&M as a similarly priced 6-point favorite.
The Lions just aren't a team to be trusted to lay points. They don't play great defense and struggle to take care of the basketball. That could haunt them here against Portland State, which has had some success turning over the opposition. Vikings also are also a great offensive rebounding team and those second chances should pay off in this matchup.
Vikings are 15-6 ATS last 21 non-conference road games, while the Lions are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Portland State!
|12-19-19||Nets v. Spurs -2.5||Top||105-118||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Spurs -2½ -106
I absolutely love the value here with the Spurs at basically a pick'em at home against the Nets. This hasn't been anywhere close to the kind of start to the season that most expected for San Antonio and their latest 107-109 loss to Houston, where they blew a 25-point lead, speaks to the season they are having.
With that said, I do feel like there's some positives with building up a 25-point lead on the road against the Rockets. It could be a sign of them turning the corner. Had they won that would have been 4 out of their last 5.
With a full 2 days off before this game I think we get a big effort here from the Spurs. As for the Nets, they continue to play well without Kyrie, but a lot of that success has come against bad teams. This is also not an ideal scheduling spot playing on the road for the 3rd time in the last 6 days.
Spurs are 15-5 ATS last 20 games at home in the month of December and 21-9 ATS last 30 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio!
|12-19-19||Jazz -6 v. Hawks||111-106||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jazz -6 -109
The Jazz are definitely worth a look here at Atlanta tonight. Utah is just 5-8 away from home and I think that poor road record has them a bit undervalued in this one. Jazz have won 3 straight and will be motivated here to get their 3-game road trip started off with a win.
What I love is they don't even need to play their best to cover this number against the Hawks. Atlanta has the second worst record in the league at 6-22 and are just 2-16 over their last 22 games. Last time out the Hawks fell by 23 on the road to an awful Knicks team, marking their 6th double-digit setback in their last 7 losses.
Jazz have faired well against teams like Atlanta away from home, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 on the road against bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. They are also 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after 2 or more consecutive home wins. Take Utah!
|12-18-19||Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs||Top||109-103||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -1½ -109
I absolutely love the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at Dallas. The Mavs shocked just about everyone in their last game, as they snapped the Bucks 18-game winning streak in Milwaukee without one of the best players in the league in Luka Doncic. Dallas won the game 120-116 as a 10-point dog.
Not to take anything away from that win, but you have to think some of that was Milwaukee not giving the Mavs the respect they deserved. They had to think they could just coast and beat Dallas without Doncic. On the flip side the Mavs were highly motivated to show they can win without their star.
Boston isn't going to make the same mistake here. In fact, the Celtics should be 100% locked in after losing their last two and being fully rested after having the last 5 days off. Boston is 8-2 ATS last 10 times they have played on 4 or more days of rest and are 11-2 ATS on the season vs a team with a winning record. Take Boston!
|12-18-19||VCU v. College of Charleston +6||Top||76-71||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on College of Charleston +6 -109
I love the value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Rams. VCU is the household name in this matchup and I think it has them laying a few to many in this one. Note the books have really been inflating the number on the Rams of late. VCU has failed to cover five straight and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. They are also 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Charleston is off to a very respectable 5-5 start. A .500 record might not seem great, but they have played the likes of Oklahoma State, Marshall, UCF (twice), Wake Forest, Providence and Richmond. Most of those games they were very competitive.
Last year the Cougars went on the road and beat VCU 83-79 as a 5.5-point dog and what I like is they got the guards to handle this Rams pressure with 3 really good ball handlers in Galloway, Jasper and Riller.
Another thing here is the Rams have not shot the ball well in 2019 and are still missing one of their better outside shooters in Malik Crowfield. Not to mention the Cougars are holding opponents to 40% from the field at home. Take Charleston!
|12-18-19||DePaul v. Cleveland State +16||73-65||Win||101||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland State +16 +101
I really like the value here with the Vikings as a massive home dog against DePaul. Not many people saw the Blue Demons being this good this early on in 2019. DePaul is off to an impressive 10-1 start, which includes a 7-3 ATS mark. However, we are far enough in that the betting public has caught on and now the books are really starting to inflate their price.
I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Blue Demons, as this is not a team they need their best effort against to get a win. It's their first road game in almost 3 weeks and they got a big matchup with Northwestern at home on Saturday.
Also worth noting that a lot of DePaul's ATS success has come in the role of a dog. Blue Demons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take Cleveland State!
|12-17-19||Magic v. Jazz UNDER 208.5||102-109||Loss||-105||9 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Magic/Jazz under 208½ -105
The UNDER is worth a look here in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Jazz hosting the Magic. These are two teams that like to play slow. Utah ranks 16th in pace of play and Orlando is way back at 26th.
Another thing here is I think we are going to get a big effort here from Utah on the defensive side of the ball, as they can't be happy about letting each of their last two opponents shoot over 53% from the field.
UNDER is also 14-3 in Orlando's last 17 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and the average combined score in this spot is just 200.3. UNDER is also 35-17 in Utah's last 52 at home after scoring 110 or more in 2 straight games. Take the UNDER!
|12-17-19||San Francisco +6.5 v. Stanford||Top||56-64||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +6½ -109
Love the value here with the Dons as a decently priced dog against the Cardinal. Stanford has been one of the big surprises early, as they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. However, both the betting public and the books have figured out just how good the Cardinal are and we are seeing them a little overpriced here against a good San Francisco team.
Dons are 9-2 to start the year and one of those losses is by a mere 4-points to Arizona State. That's not their only good showing against a Pac-12 foe, as they beat Cal at home by 12 earlier this month. Dons are 17-6 ATS last 23 on the road after 2 straight covers as a favorite.
Also a great system in play to fade the Cardinal. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 off a road win by 20 or more are just 17-45 (27%) ATS since 1997 in games involving 2 teams that have won 80% or more of their games. Take San Francisco!
|12-17-19||Florida v. Providence +5.5||83-51||Loss||-115||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +5½ -115
I really like the value here with the Friars as a decently priced dog against the Gators in Tuesday's matchup in the Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. Florida has been one of the most overrated teams in the country by the books. While the Gators are a respectable 6-3 SU, they are just 2-7 ATS. Last time out they lost by 14 at Butler as a mere 3.5-point dog.
Providence hasn't been much better of late, but the Friars continue to play hard and they really get after you defensively. Providence is only allowing opponents to shoot 42% from the field against them and are 11th in the country in defensive turnover rate.
Florida's lackluster offense is a big reason for their disappointing start and they have struggled against good defensive teams. Gators are just 8-17 ATS last 25 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 5-13 ATS last 18 vs teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Providence!
|12-16-19||Bulls v. Thunder -6||106-109||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -6 -110
Really like the value here with Oklahoma City at home tonight against the Bulls. Chicago comes in off an upset win at home over the Clippers, which looks great on paper until you realize LA didn't play Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams or Pat Beverly. Not to mention it was the Clippers 3rd game in 4 days and wrapped up a 6-game road trip.
Prior to taking advantage of that game against a depleted and tired Clippers team, the Bulls managed just 73 points in a home loss to the Hornets. Chicago's offense has been one of the worst in the league early on, as they come in 27th in effective field goal percentage.
Hard to win games on the road or even keep them close for that matter when you struggle to put the ball in the hoop. Thunder might be just 11-14, but do own a 7-5 record at home and are 5-3 over their last 8 with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5. Take Oklahoma City!
|12-16-19||Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2.5||Top||85-47||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Western Illinois +2½ -110
I love the value here with Western Illinois as a small home dog against rival Eastern Illinois. Books have been consistently undervaluing the Leathernecks here of late, as they come in having covered 4 straight.
Eastern Illinois may have the better record, but they have played the much easier schedule. The Panthers also lack size, as they got a 6'5 guy playing center. The offense also doesn't produce at near the same level on the road. Eastern Illinois is averaging 78.3 ppg on the season, but just 68.3 ppg away from home.
That lack of offense on the road figures to really hurt them here, as Western Illinois comes in averaging 80.9 ppg on the season and 90.0 ppg at home, where they are shooting a healthy 48% from the field and 44% from long distance.
Leathernecks are a strong 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as a home dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Take Western Illinois!
|12-15-19||Samford +7.5 v. Hawaii||Top||73-94||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Samford +7½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog at Hawaii on Sunday. I know the competition hasn't been the best, but it's worth noting that Samford has scored 97 and 113 points in their last two games. In their last game they beat Houston Baptist by 23 as a mere 4.5-point favorite and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
Hawaii is 6-3, but those 6 wins are against the likes of Pacific, Portland State, Florida A&M, New Orleans, San Francisco and Hawaii Pacific. Even with that soft schedule their largest margin of victory all season is by 13-points.
Rainbow Warriors are not a team to back as a favorite, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when laying points. They are also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Bulldogs are also a healthy 31-12-1 ATS last 44 non-conference games. Take Samford!
|12-15-19||Knicks v. Nuggets OVER 205.5||105-111||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT on Knicks/Nuggets over 205½ -110
Easy play here on the OVER for me in Sunday's NBA showdown between the Knicks and Nuggets. Denver comes into this one off back-to-back wins, scoring 114 against the Blazers on Thursday and 110 yesterday against the Thunder. Nuggets should have no problem putting up another big number here against a Knicks defense that is giving up 113.9 ppg on the road.
Key here is that with Denver playing on no rest, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights, it's unlikely they give a top notch defensive effort in this one, especially given how bad this Knicks team is. Nuggets can simply go through the motions on defense and still win this game no problem. Knicks scored 124 on 48% shooting at the Warriors on Wednesday and 103 on 46% shooting at Sacramento on Friday. If NY can just get to 95 here we cash this thing easy. Take the OVER!
|12-15-19||Long Beach State v. USC UNDER 149.5||76-87||Loss||-109||9 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Long Beach State/USC under 149½ -109
The UNDER is worth a look in Sunday's NCAAB matchup that has USC hosting Long Beach State. I just think the number here is way too high for this one. I get that the 49ers aren't the best defensive team and USC has some offensive fire-power, but I think both offenses could struggle to produce in this one.
Both teams figure to be a bit rusty on offense, as USC hasn't played since Dec. 6 and Long Beach has been off since Dec. 7. Trojans last game was at TCU and they scored 80 points, but the UNDER is 8-1 in USC's last 9 at home after playing their previous game on the road, 15-6 in their last 21 as a home favorite and 11-3 in their last 14 after a game where they scored 80 or more. Take the UNDER!
|12-14-19||Gonzaga +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||84-80||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs getting points at Arizona. While the Wildcats are greatly improved over last year and these two come into this game with identical 10-1 records, I feel Gonzaga is by far the better team.
Arizona comes in off a blowout 99-49 win and cover against Nebraska-Omaha, but prior to that had failed to cover 4 straight. Wildcats are also going to be down one of their better players in Stone Gettings.
Another key thing here is the matchup on the boards. Arizona's head coach Sean Miller flat out said his teams biggest weakness was their defensive rebounding. That's a big time problem against a Gonzaga team that is great at generating second chances by hitting the offensive glass. I just don't think the Wildcats will be able to go score-for-score with the juggernaut that is the Bulldogs offense. Take Gonzaga!
|12-14-19||UC-Davis +8 v. San Diego||54-58||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UC-Davis +8 -110
Easy play here for me on UC-Davis as a near double-digit dog against the Toreros. The Aggies are just 4-7, but the schedule has not been favorable. They also started out the season a dreadful 0-6 ATS. However, they have come to life in the last few weeks and come in having covered 4 straight and are off back-to-back outright wins as a dog.
San Diego has been on cruise control in their last two games, but are just 18-34 ATS last 52 at home after holding 2 straight opponents to 65 or less and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home after leading in their previous 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Take UC-Davis!
|12-14-19||Clippers v. Bulls +6||106-109||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS CASH COW on Bulls +6 -109
I think the Bulls are definitely worth a shot here as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers on Saturday. Chicago absolutely laid an egg at home last night against the Hornets, as they managed just 73 points on 30% shooting in a double-digit loss as a 7-point favorite.
That performance will have the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bulls in this matchup against the Clippers, who come in having won 4 straight and are 13-2 in their last 15 overall. The books know this and have shaded the line here to help Chicago cover.
Note that we should get a max effort here from the Bulls off that clunker, especially against a top tier team like LA. As for the Clippers, they are the ones I would be concerned about not bringing their "A" game. LA is also playing on no rest after a hard fought win at Minnesota last night and will be concluding a lengthy 6-game road trip tonight. Take Chicago!
|12-14-19||Georgia Tech +15.5 v. Kentucky||53-67||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech +15½ -109
I like the value here with Georgia Tech catching a big number against the Wildcats. Most are going to just look to lay the big number with Kentucky after seeing that the Yellow Jackets were trounced at home by Syracuse 97-63 in their last game. I just think we are going to get a big effort here from Georgia Tech off that ugly showing against the Orange.
On top of that, I think we could see Kentucky come out a bit flat. Wildcats haven't played in a week and in just a few days will be heading to Las Vegas to take on Utah. Wildcats are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6, so the books have definitely been inflating the number on them.
Yellow Jackets are 13-3 ATS last 16 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road against strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Georgia Tech!
|12-14-19||Alabama v. Penn State -10.5||71-73||Loss||-109||4 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS DESTROYER on Penn State -10½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number at home with Penn State as they get ready to host Alabama. The Nittany Lions come in off an impressive 76-69 win at home over No. 4 Maryland and should have no problem making easy work of the Crimson Tide.
With that win Penn State improved to 6-0 at home. Alabama is just 4-4 overall with their 4 wins against the likes of FAU, Furman, Southern Miss and SF Austin. Crimson Tide are just 1-3 away from home and a big reason for that is they are allowing 85.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting on the road. That's a problem, as Penn State is scoring 80.5 ppg at home.
Nittany Lions should also have a big edge here on the glass with their strong frontcourt and Alabama's guard heavy lineup. Not to mention the Crimson Tide's inability to take care of the ball. They rank 322nd in offensive turnover rate. This thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Take Penn State!
|12-14-19||Oregon +4 v. Michigan||71-70||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +4 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a small road dog against the Wolverines. Few coaches are better than Oregon's Dana Altman at getting his team ready for big games. Ducks have already compiled an impressive 7-1 ATS record this season when matched up against a team with a winning record.
Michigan had that great run in the Battle 4 Atlantics, knocking off Iowa St, UNC and Gonzaga in a 3-day span. They went from unranked to the Top 10 and I'm not so sure it was warranted. Michigan has lost 2 of 3 since returning from that tournament, including a 62-71 loss at Illinois last time out.
I know the Wolverines are a good home team, but Oregon is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in their last 9 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Oregon!
|12-13-19||Prairie View A&M +7 v. Loyola Marymount||76-79||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Prairie View A&M +7 -110
The Panthers are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against Loyola Marymount. Prairie View A&M is just 3-6 overall, but that was to be expected. Panthers haven't played at home since opening the season at home on Nov. 5 against Jarvis Xian. They have played each of their last 8 games away from home and all but two have been true road games.
While the wins haven't been there, they are an impressive 5-1 ATS and roll in having covered 3 straight. They only lost by 9 last time out at Arizona State and have also lost by just 4 at both UCF and Cal, as well a mere 14-point loss at Texas. If they can go on the road in those venues and keep it that close, they are capable of covering this and even winning outright.
Lions are just 1-8 ATS last 9 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Prairie View A&M!
|12-13-19||Bucks v. Grizzlies +10.5||Top||127-114||Loss||-109||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies +10½ -109
I love the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Bucks. Milwaukee has won 16 straight and are fresh off a 15-point win over the Pelicans without Antetokounmpo and he's questionable to play here. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bucks gave him another night off, especially against a sub-par team like Memphis.
The Grizzlies have won two straight since star rookie Ja Morant returned from a 4-game absence and this team is more than capable of keeping this close with him on the floor. I also think this is a tricky spot for Milwaukee. They just played 3 straight at home and will return home for 3 more after this contest. Real easy for them to just kind of take this game off and go through the motions.
Bucks are a mere 7-24 ATS in their last 31 off 3 or more consecutive home wins and just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Grizzlies are returning home after 4-straight on the road. Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Take Memphis!
|12-12-19||Northern Iowa -5.5 v. Grand Canyon||82-58||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -5½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Panthers. Dan Majerle's Antelope's team is better than their 4-7 record, but I still think they are outclassed in this one. UNI really came on strong at the end of last year and look like a team that's poised to make a serious run for a MVC title.
Panthers are 9-1 with the only loss coming by 5 to West Virginia. They just went on the road and beat Colorado 79-76 as a 9.5-point dog and that's a really impressive win with how good the Buffaloes are at home. UNI improved to 7-1 ATS on the season and a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home. Take Northern Iowa!
|12-12-19||76ers v. Celtics OVER 210||115-109||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Celtics over 210 -110
I like the value here with the OVER at this price. A lot of people are going to be thinking UNDER here with this being a matchup of two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, especially with how these teams can get after it on defense.
The thing is, I just don't think these two are going to have enough in the tank to bring their "A" game defensively. Boston just played last night at Indiana in a game that saw 239 combined points. It's also the Celtics 3rd game in 4 days. 76ers had yesterday off, but are playing their 4th game in 6 nights.
OVER is 25-10 in the Celtics last 35 home games after a combined score of 235 or more. It's also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Boston. Take the OVER!
|12-11-19||Knicks v. Warriors -4.5||124-122||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Warriors laying a short number at home against the Knicks. The fact that the Warriors are just 5-20 overall and just lost at home as a favorite to a bad Memphis team, is a big part of the value we are getting here.
The thing is the Warriors are still playing to win and this Knicks team is one they can have their way with, especially at home. New York is 1-10 on the road this season and are getting outscored on the road by 15.1 ppg. Not to mention the Knicks are in a tough scheduling spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Portland. Take Golden State!
|12-11-19||Hawks v. Bulls -4.5||102-136||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS CASH COW on Bulls -4½ -110
I like the value here with the Bulls laying a short number at home against the Hawks. Chicago has went from a team a lot of people were really high on to start the year to a team no one really wants anything to do with, especially as a favorite.
Those that have taken advantage of the poor perception on the Bulls have been rewarded with some nice profits here of late. Chicago has covered 5 of their last 6 and now are laying a small number against a bad Hawks team that is just 3-10 on the road, where they are getting outscored by 13.3 ppg. Take Chicago!
|12-11-19||Boise State +3 v. Tulsa||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110
Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule.
We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State!
|12-11-19||Rockets -10.5 v. Cavs||116-110||Loss||-115||13 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -10½ -115
I got no problem laying double-digits here with Houston, as we should get a big effort with the Rockets coming off a upset loss at home to the Kings. Not many better teams to get right against than the Cavs right now. After losing by 47 at Philadelphia on Saturday they responded by losing by 22 at Boston. Houston can pretty much name the score in this one.
Rockets have covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and have covered 4 of their last 5 off a loss and failed cover. Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record and have lost 4 straight as a dog. Take Houston!
|12-11-19||Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5||83-80||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Massachusetts +4½ -110
I like the value here with UMass as a small home dog against the Bulldogs. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Minutemen after losing 5 straight and getting drubbed in their last game at Harvard 89-55. It' also the perfect time to sell high on Yale, who has won 5 straight and covered 8 in a row.
It's not like UMass has been losing to a bunch of bad teams. They were a dog in all 5 losses and 4 of those were away from home. We should get a max effort here from the Minutemen in this one. For Yale, I think they are not only overpriced, but also in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight on the road in a 8 day stretch. Take UMASS!
|12-10-19||Knicks +9 v. Blazers||87-115||Loss||-105||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Knicks +9 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a near double-digit dog against the Blazers. This is just too big a price for Portland to be laying right now. Blazers are down two starters to injury in Zach Collins and Rodney Hood and are still trying to adjust to life with Carmelo Anthony.
Portland has lost 3 of 4 and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Knicks have lost 9 straight, which is why the line is what it is, but several of those have been single-digit defeats. History is also on our side with New York.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games in the month of December are 45-20 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!
|12-10-19||Nevada +8.5 v. BYU||Top||42-75||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110
I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed.
Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home.
BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada!
|12-10-19||Maryland v. Penn State +1||69-76||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Penn State +1 -110
This line really says it all. You got the No. 4 ranked team and undefeated (10-0) team in the country the slimmest of road favorites against an unranked Penn State team. Books clearly like the Nittany Lions to win this game and so do I.
Maryland is talented, there's no denying that, but they lack chemistry, routinely get off to slow starts and don't take high percentage shots. They were extremely fortunate to win at home against Illinois last time out, as they went on a 11-1 run in the last 5 minutes to win 59-58.
Penn State isn't just good enough to get up on the Terps, but they can bury them if Maryland doesn't bring their 'A' game tonight. Nittany Lions are 5-0 at home and are shooting 47% from the field at home, while allowing just 38%. Atmosphere is going to be electric as well and this is easily the toughest true road game of the season for Maryland. Take Penn State!
|12-09-19||Cavs +14 v. Celtics||88-110||Loss||-105||7 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Cavs +14 -105
The Cavs are definitely worth a look here as a huge road dog against the Celtics. I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Cleveland. I just think the number here has been inflated due to the fact that Boston is such a big public team and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Cleveland also comes in having lost 6 straight and are just 1-5 ATS in this stretch.
These two played at Cleveland a little over a month ago (Nov. 5) and the Cavs hung around in that one at home, losing by just 6 and that was with Boston shooting 57% from the field. Celtics have also failed to produce in this spot, as they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 at home vs a team with a losing record and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Cleveland!
|12-09-19||Clippers v. Pacers +1.5||110-99||Loss||-109||8 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pacers +1½ -109
The Pacers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Clippers Monday. Most are going to look to take LA as a small road favorite, but this is not an ideal spot for the Clippers, who had to play at Washington on Sunday and will be suiting up for the 3rd time in the last 4 days.
Not to mention the Pacers are playing extremely well right now and are going to be fired up to show off against one of the league's top teams. Indiana is 8-2 in their last 10 games and have gone 9-2 on their home floor this season. Keep in mind the Clippers are just 4-6 on the road compared to 13-1 at home.
Indiana is returning home from a 5-game road trip and are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Pacers are also 16-5-1 ATS last 22 at home vs a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take Indiana!
|12-08-19||Wolves +11 v. Lakers||125-142||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Wolves +11 -105
Great value here with the Timberwolves as a double-digit dog against the Lakers on Sunday. LA has been costing the books a lot here of late, as they come in having covered 3 in a row. I think it's got them way overvalued here against Minnesota.
This is not an ideal spot for the Lakers. While they are back home after a 3-game road trip, those 3 road games were at Denver, Utah and Portland and they got just 1 day off for this game. The Timberwolves are also a great road team, as they come in 7-4 SU and 7-4 ATS away from home this season.
TWolves are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog, while the Lakers are just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 0-4 last 4 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Minnesota!
|12-08-19||Bulls +8 v. Heat||105-110||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +8 -115
I like the value here with the Bulls as a big road against the Heat on Sunday. Chicago has been playing better here of late and come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but the books have been making it tough for them to cover with some inflated lines after their great start. Heat are just 3-5 ATS last 8 games.
Bulls are a perfect 9-0 ATS last 3 seasons when playing on the road after covering 3 of their last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 trips to Miami. Take Chicago!
|12-08-19||Texas -8.5 v. Texas A&M||60-50||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Texas -8½ -109
I look for the Longhorns to have no problem winning by double-digits on the road against the Aggies. Texas is off to a strong 7-1 start to their season with the only loss coming on a neutral court to Georgetown.
Texas A&M is just 3-4 and have lost 3 straight. The Aggies have also been one of the most overvalued teams in the country early on, as they are a miserable 0-7 ATS. Texas A&M just can't get their offense going and are up against a really good Texas defense. Aggies come in averaging just 57.1 ppg on 36% shooting. Longhorns are giving up 59.5 ppg on 41% shooting.
Another thing is turnovers, Texas A&M does not take good care of the basketball and Texas knows how to force teams into mistakes. This should lead to a lot of easy points in transition for the Longhorns, which will allow them to win here comfortably. Take Texas!
|12-08-19||South Alabama +7 v. Richmond||57-75||Loss||-109||4 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on South Alabama +7 -109
I like the value here with the Jaguars as a decently priced road dog against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is a bit overvalued right now. Spiders have started out 7-1 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
For me the biggest thing that sticks out is the one common opponent in Auburn. While both teams lost to the Tigers, South Alabama lost by just 1-point and Richmond lost by 14. Another thing here is the Spiders could be short-handed, as two of Richmonds top scorers, Nathan Cayo and Grant Golden are both questionable to play.
Jaguars are 13-5 ATS last 18 games against a team with a winning record and a dominant 11-3 ATS last 14 vs a team that's averaging 77+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|12-07-19||Portland v. Seattle University -4.5||71-73||Loss||-109||12 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Seattle University -4½ -109
Don't be fooled by the overall records in this one, as Portland is 6-2 and Seattle comes in at just 5-5. The value is with the RedHawks as a small favorite. Seattle comes in having won and covered 3 straight and their poor start can be attributed to a really tough schedule. Portland on the other hand has had it easy and are coming off a loss at home to CS-Northridge by 7 as a 5-point favorite.
Both of these teams have played Incarnate Word at home. Seattle won by a score of 81-60, where Portland snuck out a 65-56 win. Redhawks won by 21 despite shooting just 42% from the field and turning it over 16 times, so the gap could have been a lot larger.
Portland comes in allowing just 61.9 ppg and are holding opponents to 38% from the field. Seattle seems to play their best against good defensive teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Seattle!
|12-07-19||Colorado State v. Boise State -5.5||64-75||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -5½ -109
I'm confident the Broncos are going to cover the spread at home against the Rams. Boise State comes in off a mere 2-point loss at New Mexico, but covered for the 4th straight game as a 5-point dog. Clearly the books haven't been giving this team the respect they deserve and I think this line should be closer to double-digits.
Colorado State just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace in this one. Rams are only scoring 67.8 ppg away from home and will be facing a Broncos offense that is averaging 84.5 ppg on 47% shooting at home this season.
Teams off a cover where they lost as a dog are 64-33 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games involving two marginal winning teams. Take Boise State!
|12-07-19||CS Sacramento +1 v. CS-Fullerton||62-59||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS VEGAS INSIDER on CS Sacramento +1 -110
I really like the value here the Hornets at basically a pick'em against the Titans. CS-Sacramento is 5-1 with their only loss coming at Colorado, which they covered in as a 17-point dog. CS-Fullerton is just 3-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. The Titans have lost 3 straight overall.
Playing at home has not benefited Fullerton, as they are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 home games. They are also just 4-15 ATS last 19 vs a team with a winning record. Titans are 4-0 ATS on the season and are riding a 5-0 ATS run on the road. Take CS-Sacramento!
|12-07-19||Morehead State +7.5 v. Illinois State||50-61||Loss||-109||9 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Morehead State +7½ -109
I like the value here with the Eagles as a decently priced road dog against Illinois State. The Redbirds got no business here being this big of favorite against Morehead State. Illinois State is just 3-5 and while a number of those losses have come against quality teams, they also lost to Grand Canyon and their only two Div 1 wins have come by 7 or less.
I also don't love the mental state of this Redbirds team. Head coach Dan Muller, threw his team under the bus after their most recent loss to TCU, saying "We're just not good enough to win this game, a game like this." Not the first time Muller has been quick to speak poorly of his team. Clearly they aren't responding to his criticism and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if they lost this game outright. Take Morehead State!
|12-07-19||Delaware -1.5 v. George Washington||56-66||Loss||-109||6 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Delaware -1½ -109
I got no problem laying the small number here with the Blue Hens at George Washington. Delaware is off to a perfect 9-0 start to their season and have already won 4 games away from home, including 3 true road games.
As for George Washington, they are just 4-5 to start the season and have lost to the likes of Towson, American, Morgan St and UMKC. The only reason the line is low, is because they have covered 4 straight.
I just don't see GW being able to keep pace offensively. Delaware is averaging 77.1 ppg and shooting 48.9% from the field. The Colonials are only scoring 67.1 ppg and shooting 41% from the field. They will be up against a Blue Hens defense that only allows 63 ppg and 39% shooting. Take Delaware!
|12-07-19||Pelicans +9 v. Mavs||84-130||Loss||-110||3 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pelicans +9 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans in Saturday's early NBA action against the Mavs. Dallas comes in having gone a ridiculous 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. However, I think the books have had enough and have drastically inflated the number in this one.
I know the Pelicans come in having lost 7 straight, but they have been competitive in a lot of those games. I also think the losing streak makes it a lot harder on the Mavs to get up for this one. Last time out New Orleans fell 132-139 at home to the Suns and that's worth noting as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home defeat.
We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games are 44-19 (70%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take New Orleans!
|12-07-19||West Virginia v. St. John's +4.5||68-70||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St. John's +4½ -109
I like the Red Storm as a home dog against the Mountaineers in Saturday's early college hoops action. I just think West Virginia is getting a little too much love here. Mountaineers could be a little rusty having only played 1 game in the last 9 days. They will also be playing their first true road game since visiting Pitt way back on Nov. 15.
St. John's comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 at home with their only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a decent Vermont team. What I like about the Red Storm here is they are locked in defensively to start the year. Opposing teams are shooting just 38% from the field against them on the season. West Virginia is only hitting 43% on the season and a mere 39% away from home. Take St John's!
|12-07-19||Florida v. Butler -3||62-76||Win||100||2 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Butler -3 -110
The Bulldogs are definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Gators on Saturday. Butler is a perfect 8-0 to start the season with quality wins over the likes of Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford and Ole Miss. Each of the last 3 coming away from home.
Florida is 6-2, but have not looked anything close to what we expected to see from this team coming into the year. Gators have been consistently overvalued by the books, as they are just 2-6 ATS. They have just not been able to find a rhythm offensively this year and hard to imagine they figure it out in a hostile environment against a stingy Bulldogs defense that is giving up just 55.5 ppg, while holding teams to just 40.6% shooting.
Gators are a miserable 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons vs top caliber teams that are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game and 0-6 ATS last 6 vs a team that shoots 48% or better from the field. Bulldogs are 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a win and 13-2 ATS last 15 at home in Saturday games. Take Butler!
|12-06-19||North Dakota +7.5 v. Montana||Top||70-77||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on North Dakota +7½ -110
The Fighting Hawks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Grizzlies. While both teams have an identical 3-5 record, North Dakota has played the tougher schedule, especially when you consider they have played just one game on their home floor all season.
While neither team is lighting it up offensively, Montana has really struggled on that side of the ball, scoring just 63.2 ppg, and are scoring 5.7 ppg under what their opponents have allowed. North Dakota is at 69.0 ppg, despite all those road games.
I also like the matchup for the Fighting Hawks, as they run their offense thru big man Filip Rebraca, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.2 rpg, while shooting 63% from the field. I just don't think Montana has the guys inside to keep Rebraca from having a big game here.
Fighting Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take North Dakota!
|12-06-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics||95-108||Loss||-105||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nuggets +3½ -105
I know the Celtics are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, but I think the Nuggets are the play when Denver visits Boston on Friday. These two teams played a couple weeks ago and Denver won 96-92, but it was much more lopsided than that, as the Nuggets held a 70-57 edge going into the 4th quarter.
Boston is also not been a good bet when they are a small favorite. Celtics are just 4-10-1 ATS last 11 home games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, including a 2-6 ATS mark in this spot at home. Denver is playing on 0 days rest, but yesterday's game at NY was a blowout, so they will be ready to go. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS last 7 on no rest. They are also 3-0-1 ATS last 4 trips to Boston. Take Denver!
|12-06-19||Wizards v. Heat UNDER 234||103-112||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Heat under 234 -109
The UNDER is worth a look in Friday's NBA matchup that has division rivals Washington and Miami facing off. The scoring numbers here might suggest this thing going OVER, but I just don't think the pace of play will be at the point needed to eclipse this total.
Washington is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 days. They are also primed to come out a little flat after a big upset win over the 76ers last night as a 7.5-point dog. Miami had yesterday off, but will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and should give a big effort defensively coming off a 19-point loss at Boston.
UNDER is 33-16 in the Wizards last 49 off a home win and 31-17 in their last 48 after playing 2 straight games at home. Take the UNDER!
|12-05-19||Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State||74-67||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisiana Tech +8½ -109
I really like the value here with Louisiana Tech as a decently priced dog at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is off to a strong 6-1 start and have covered 5 straight, but I think that has them getting a little too much respect here.
This Louisiana Tech team is the real deal. They have 4 starters back from a team that managed to win 20 games last year despite being hit hard with injuries. Louisiana Tech is off to a strong 5-2 start with their only two losses coming by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana. Two teams I think are better than Mississippi State.
Louisiana Tech can really disrupt teams with their defensive pressure. That combined with the experience they have at the guard position has them winning the turnover battle just about every time out. They have only lost the turnover battle twice all season and both times were a mere -2.
Louisiana Tech is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road dog. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-05-19||Rockets v. Raptors -2||Top||119-109||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -109
The Raptors are worth a look here as I think we are getting some exceptional value with Toronto laying a short number at home against the Rockets. Toronto comes into this off a crushing OT loss at home to Miami and they are 7-1 ATS last 8 times off a loss by more than 10 points.
As for the Rockets, they will have had just 1-day off since their double-overtime loss at San Antonio on Tuesday. Five different players for Houston logged at least 40 minutes with Westbrook, Harden and Tucker all playing 48+. I just don't see the Rockets have a whole lot left in the tank in this one.
That game against the Spurs ended 235-233 and that's worth noting, as Houston is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a contest that had 245 or more combined points.
Also, underdogs that have won 60% to 70% of their games and are off a game that went over the total by 30 or more are just 5-26 (16%) ATS if they are playing a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!
|12-04-19||Kings v. Blazers -3.5||116-127||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night NO LIMIT ATS DESTROYER on Blazers -3½ -110
I really like the value here with Portland as a small home favorite against the Kings. I think we are getting a great price here on the Blazers due to the fact that this is a bad scheduling spot for them playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
With that said, the addition of Carmelo Anthony has given this Portland team a huge spark. Anthony has been way better than anyone could have expected. Last week he averaged 22.3 ppg on 57.4% shooting, including 45.5% from deep. His emergence gives the Blazers a legit 3-man scoring punch with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of which have started to shoot the ball much better since Anthony's arrival.
Portland also doesn't have the luxury of taking nights off right now, as they got some major ground to make up with a 8-13 record. They have won 3 of 4 with the only loss to the Clippers last night. Kings had covered 12 of 13 before losing at home to the Bulls as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday and I think we are going to see them struggle a bit now that the books have clearly adjusted the number on them. Take Portland!
|12-04-19||CS-Northridge v. Portland -4.5||71-64||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Portland -4½ -109
The Matadors suffered a massive blow prior to the season ever starting, as reigning Big West Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Lamine Diane, was ruled academically ineligible. CS-Northridge has started out just 1-7 without Diane and are 0-6 in games away from home, losing by an average of 21.6 ppg.
On the flip side of this, Portland has came out of nowhere to start the year 6-1, with the only loss coming at USC by a mere 11-points. Keep in mind the Pilots only won 7 games all of last year. The schedule hasn't been overly challenging, but the important thing is they are 5-1 ATS. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by more than the number. Take Portland!
|12-04-19||San Diego State v. Colorado State +5||79-57||Loss||-110||11 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Colorado State +5 -110
Colorado State is worth a look here as a home dog against the Aztecs. I just think San Diego State is getting a little too much respect from the books after starting out the season 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.
One reason to expect the Aztecs to regress is how fortunate they have been in the battle at the 3-point line. San Diego State has shot a ridiculous 40.9% from deep. Considering the national average is 33%, it's only a matter of time before they start regressing and opposing teams are only hitting 32% from deep against the Rams.
Aztecs' opponents have also shot just 26.7% from behind the 3-point line against them. They figure to struggle to improve that number here, as Colorado State is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Take Colorado State!
|12-04-19||Grizzlies v. Bulls OVER 221||99-106||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Bulls over 221 -110
I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Bulls hosting the Grizzlies. These two teams like to play fast, as the Bulls are T-11th in pace and Memphis is 6th.
The Grizzlies are without star rookie point guard Joe Morant, but in the last two games without him both matchups saw a combined score of 221 or more. Not only do these two teams like to play fast, they also don't play much defense. Memphis is allowing 117 ppg and the Bulls are giving up 110 ppg.
Another thing to keep in mind when we have two bad teams facing off against each other, the defensive intensity is usually not there. OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 vs a team with a losing home record and 5-1-1 in the Bulls last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER!
|12-04-19||UC-Davis v. Northern Arizona -4.5||85-66||Loss||-109||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Arizona -4½ -109
I like the value here with the Lumberjacks as a small home favorite against UC-Davis. Northern Arizona has to be the freshest team in the country, as they have only played 4 games all season and this will be just their 3rd in the last 19 days. That's a lot of valuable practice time, but at the same time the players have to be chomping at the bit to get on the floor against another team.
Hard to not like their chances of winning here rather easily against a struggling Aggies team that comes in having lost 6 straight. Not only that but UC-Davis has to be running on fumes with all the travel they have had to do here of late. They have played 9 games and only 1 of those were on their home court, which was back on Nov. 7th. Each of their last 3 games have been true road contests.
Aggies are just 5-14 ATS last 19 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS last 23 as an underdog. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-04-19||Virginia v. Purdue +1||40-69||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Purdue +1 -110
The Boilermakers are worth a look here as a home dog against No. 5 Virginia. The fact that the No. 5 team is basically a pick'em against an unranked opponent says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Cavaliers, which means they must really like how Purdue matches up here.
One thing is certain. The Boilermakers won't be thrown off by Virginia's grind it out style of play. Purdue ranks 348th in the country in tempo and want to win in the same way. I know the Cavaliers won at Syracuse earlier in the season, but that's a bad Orange team. This is easily their toughest true road game to date and with an offense that can't score it's hard to beat quality teams away from home.
Purdue has lost all 3 of their meetings against top programs, falling to Texas, Marquette and FSU, but were very competitive in all 3 defeats. Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a statement win against one of the nation's best teams. Take Purdue!
|12-04-19||Eastern Illinois +5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||Top||69-74||Push||0||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110
I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released.
The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State.
Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois!
|12-03-19||Florida State +3 v. Indiana||64-80||Loss||-109||11 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Florida State +3 -109
The books are making a big mistake here with listing the Seminoles as a road dog against the Hoosiers. Florida State is the No. 17 ranked team in the country and have already played true road games at BC and Florida, as well as neutral site games against Tennessee and Purdue. They are 3-1 in those games with the only loss by a mere 2-points.
Indiana is a well-known program and are simply getting a little too much love after their perfect 7-0 start to the season. The thing is, the Hoosiers should be 7-0 with who they scheduled. Indiana's strength of schedule ranks 345th out of the possible 353 Division 1 teams. They also haven't been dominating these bad teams like they should. They only beat Portland State by 11, LA Tech by 13 and S Dakota State by 14.
Indiana's offense has not been tested, so don't be fooled by their 86.4 scoring average. I think they are in for a rude awakening on the offensive side of the ball against a deep, athletic and talented FSU defense that is only giving up 59.9 ppg (holding teams 10.1 ppg under their average) and have allowed opponents to shoot just 35.8% from the field. Take Florida State!
|12-03-19||Buffalo v. Vanderbilt -2.5||Top||76-90||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt -2½ -110
I love the value here with the Commodores as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Vandy made a lot of buzz when they hired former NBA star Jerry Stackhouse to be their new head coach, but no one is expecting much of this team in year one.
I get it, but I think those low expectations have the Commodores undervalued here against a team they should be able to handle. Buffalo was a great story last year winning 32 games and making it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, but they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama and lost 5 seniors off that team.
Bulls have started out a respectable 5-2, but a big part of that is the schedule. I think a 63-68 home loss to Dartmouth speaks to how much less talented this team is compared to the previous two years. This is also Buffalo's first true road game of the season and that's always a difficult spot. Commodores are going to be motivated off that ugly loss to Tulsa at home last time out and are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MAC. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-03-19||Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5||118-97||Loss||-105||9 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +4½ -105
Most are going to look at this game and just blindly take the Mavs. Hard to blame them given Dallas has won 7 of 8 and are off a 114-100 win against the Lakers, snapping LA's 10-game win streak. The thing is, the books aren't stupid.
They know that as good as the Mavs been playing, they are due to for a letdown off that big win, especially given that they are on the road and facing a struggling Pelicans team that has lost 5 straight. Thing is while the wins aren't there, NO has been playing well with each of their last 3 losses coming by 5-points or less.
The most recent was a 104-107 setback at home to the Thunder as a 1-point favorite. That result is worth noting, as the Pelicans are 18-7 ATS last 25 off a home loss and 9-1 ATS when off a home loss as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|12-03-19||Pistons v. Cavs +3||127-94||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +3 -110
The Cavaliers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pistons. I just think there's no way Detroit should be laying points on the road against any team right now. The Pistons are just 7-13 overall and a miserable 1-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by 7.8 ppg. I know Detroit comes in off 132-98 blowout win over the Spurs at home, but they haven't won back-to-back games once all season.
Cleveland is a work in progress, but they play hard and could be getting back a couple of key guys back. Rookie Dylan Windler could make his season debut and big man John Henson could return from injury. Either way I like the Cavs here, who are well rested having not played since last Friday.
Pistons have also not shown well against bad teams, going just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|12-03-19||Oakland v. Western Michigan +1.5||72-62||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers ATS Line MISTAKE on Western Michigan +1½ -110
The Broncos are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Grizzlies, as my numbers suggest that Western Michigan should be the ones favored in this matchup. Both teams come in at 4-4, but Oakland is just 1-4 away from home getting outscored by almost 9 ppg. Broncos are 3-0 at home winning by 22 ppg.
One of the big reasons the Golden Grizzlies are struggling away from home is they have inexperienced guards that are struggling to make the right plays, especially in the critical points of the game.
Another thing here is rest. This is Oakland's third straight true road games since last Monday. Western Michigan on the other hand has had the luxury of not playing since last Tuesday. Broncos are 48-27 (64%) ATS in their last 75 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have also covered 6 of their last 7 vs a team from the Horizon. Take Western Michigan!
|12-03-19||Jacksonville State v. George Mason -8.5||60-67||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on George Mason -8½ -109
I got no problem backing the Patriots at home against Jacksonville State. George Mason is off to an impressive 8-1 start with their only setback coming in a true road game at Maryland.
That loss to the Terps seemed to light a fire under this team as they went out and won 3 games in 3 days to secure the title at the Cayman Islands Classic last week. The Patriots will certainly looked to carry over that momentum here.
George Mason has one of the best players you probably haven't heard of in junior forward A.J. Wilson. He's nearly averaging a double-double with 12.4 ppg and 9.7 rpg. He's also been a force inside averaging 3.8 blocks. He's anchoring a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 39.2% shooting from the field on the season.
The Gamecocks are just 2-4 and those two wins have come against Brecia, who has no business being on the floor with a D1 school, and Chicago State, who they were favored by 20 against (only won by 9). I just don't see them keeping this within single-digits. Take George Mason!
|12-02-19||Pacers v. Grizzlies +10||117-104||Loss||-110||10 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +10 -110
I really like the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Pacers. I just think Indiana is getting way too much love from the books in this spot. Not a big surprise given the Pacers have gone 12-4 in their last 16.
I just think it's asking a little too much for Indiana to be favored by this much given they will be playing their 2nd straight on the road, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Memphis snapped a 6-game skid with a 115-107 upset win as a 12-point dog at Minnesota yesterday and despite their struggles to win games have gone a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
Pacers are just 8-18 ATS last 26 on the road after playing their previous game on the road and 3-15 ATS last 18 on the road after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS last 17 when revenging a same season loss. Take Memphis!
|12-02-19||Florida Atlantic v. St Bonaventure -1.5||64-71||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -1½ -109
The Bonnies are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Owls in their final round matchup of the Boca Raton Beach Classic. FAU is lucky to even be in this game, as they barely squeaked by Illinois-Chicago 71-70 on Sunday. The Owls shot just 42% from the field and turned it over 20 times.
FAU has also been overvalued on a consistent basis by the books to start out the season. Owls are just 1-5 ATS and are failing to cover by 3.5 points/game. Also, you can just look at how bad they were in their against their two toughest opponents, losing by 14 at Miami and by 19 at Alabama.
Bonnies have won 3 of 4 since starting out 0-3 and to no surprise the turnaround has come with the recent additions of Osun Osunniyi and Jaren English to the rotation. Both were instrumental in their win yesterday over San Diego. Osunniyi had 15 points and 10 boards, while English had 2 points to go with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.
Owls are just 5-14 ATS last 19 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take St. Bonaventure!
|12-02-19||Suns -4.5 v. Hornets||109-104||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Suns -4½ -110
I really like the value here with the Suns, as I feel like this is the perfect spot to jump on them. Phoenix comes in having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. A big reason for their struggles is they had some key guys out. They have recently got them back and I look for them to get back to their early season form that saw them open the season 7-4.
Charlotte is the perfect team to get right against. The Hornets are one of the last talented teams in the league and are just 4-10 in their last 14. Three of those four wins have come against a bad Pistons team and the other against an awful Knicks team. Each of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits. Look for the Suns to make easy work of the Hornets tonight. Take Phoenix!
|12-02-19||Furman -3.5 v. South Florida||Top||55-65||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109
A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason.
The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined.
USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.
Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman!
|12-01-19||San Diego v. St Bonaventure -2||61-70||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on St Bonaventure -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number against the Toreros in Sunday's opening round action at the Boca Raton Beach Classic. St Bonaventure is just 2-4, but have been playing short handed early on.
They just recently added both big man Osun Osunniyi and guard Jaren English to the rotation. Both have made big impacts already and I think this team is going to have no problem here against San Diego. Toreros are just 3-5 and simply should be a much bigger dog in this fight.
Bonnies are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games. San Diego is a miserable 7-18-1 last 26 vs a team with a losing record. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-01-19||Mavs +7 v. Lakers||114-100||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Mavs +7 -110
I just think we are getting too good a price here with the Mavs because of the Lakers coming in having won 10 straight. Dallas isn't quite on that level, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. Their only loss coming against the Clippers, who are a really tough matchup for them with all the elite defenders they can throw at Luka Doncic.
Lakers are a good defensive team, but I don't think they got anyone that can shutdown Doncic and there's going to be a game here soon where LA lays an egg and this winning streak comes to an end. I really think the Mavs could pull off the upset here. Either way, they should keep it close. Despite all the wins LA is racking up, they are just 2-4 ATS last 6 games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7.
Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 road games and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Lakers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Dallas!
|12-01-19||Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount +2||51-61||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Loyola Marymount +2 -109
The Lions are worth a look here as a home dog against the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah should not be favored in this matchup. Loyola is just 2-4, but have played a pretty tough schedule as they have been a dog in every game this season with a line posted.
I just don't like the matchup here for the Thunderbirds. You have to be able to shoot the 3-ball well against this zone defense of Loyola-Marymount that just isn't going to let you get easy looks inside. That's a problem for a Southern Utah offense that relies heavily on dribble penetration. Thunderbirds only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 31% from deep. Note it's much worse on the road, where they only average 4 made 3-pointers and are shooting 22%.
Turnovers also figure to play a big factor in this outcome. Lions take really good care of the ball, while Southern Utah is one of the worst in the country at giving up the rock.
Lions are 8-0 ATS last 8 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and the Thunderbirds are 0-7 ATS last 7 on the road after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|12-01-19||Celtics v. Knicks +8||113-104||Loss||-115||5 h 5 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Knicks +8 -115
I really like the value here with New York as a near double-digit home dog against the Celtics. No question Boston is the better team, I just think the Celtics are ready to get this game over with and head back home after a hectic last few days that has seen them host the Nets on Wednesday, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets Friday and then stay in New York Saturday for this one.
Boston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now either, as they have lost 4 of their last 7. Knicks have lost 5 straight, but are a very respectable 4-3-1 ATS last 8 games. While the Celtics could struggle to get up for this one, New York figures to give a big effort as they haven't forgot about the ugly 118-95 home loss they suffered at the hands of Boston earlier this season.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December, who have lost 4 or more games in a row are a dominant 43-15 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!
|12-01-19||Rhode Island v. West Virginia -9||Top||81-86||Loss||-110||4 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110
I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years.
Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.
Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia!
|11-30-19||Green Bay +6 v. Montana State||98-72||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115
I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-30-19||Pacers v. 76ers OVER 206||116-119||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers over 206 -109
The books have completely missed the mark with Saturday's NBA total between the Pacers and 76ers. I get these are two strong defensive teams, but Philadelphia is scoring 108.3 ppg and Indiana is even better at 109.3 ppg. Pacers are also red-hot on the offensive side of the ball right now, as they are scoring 115.6 ppg in their last 5.
76ers don't figure to be at their best defensively in this one, as they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. Same thing with the Pacers defense, as Indiana is also in the second game of a back-to-back.
OVER is 5-1-1 in the Pacers last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and 4-1 in the 76ers last 5 on no rest. OVER is laos 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 when their starters combine for 160 minutes in the previous day and 6-2-1 in Indiana's last 9 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day. Take the OVER!
|11-30-19||Denver +1 v. SE Missouri State||51-66||Loss||-104||6 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104
I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point.
SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver!
|11-30-19||East Carolina v. James Madison -1.5||89-99||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109
The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game.
ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome.
ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison!
|11-30-19||NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown||65-61||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115
UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas.
One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%.
Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro!
|11-29-19||Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 235||103-125||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night TOTAL BAILOUT on Wizards/Lakers under 235 -105
UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Wizards. While LA has seemed to figure out the offense here i n the last couple of weeks, I just feel the number is way too high for the spot.
I just don't see the Lakers looking to push the pace at all in this one. They just finished up a 4-game road trip that spanned just 6 days and they just last played in New Orleans on Wednesday. If LA wants to play slow, they are good enough to dictate the tempo to their liking.
Wizards are a team that likes to play fast, but they too figure to be a little slower than normal. Washington is playing it's 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days.
UNDER is 15-5 in Lakers last 20 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 24-9 in their last 33 after scoring 105 or more in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 17-7 in their last 24 at home vs a team with a losing record and 18-5 in their last 23 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the UNDER!
|11-29-19||Iowa v. San Diego State -2||73-83||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104
I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season.
As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State!
|11-29-19||Raptors -3.5 v. Magic||90-83||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt Oddsmakers ERROR on Raptors -3½ -110
Easy play here with Toronto laying a short number at Orlando on Friday. The Raptors have already had their way with the Magic twice this season. They won by 9 at home on Oct. 28 and then by 16 in the rematch on Nov. 20. While both of those were played in Toronto, I don't think being at home will be enough for Orlando to change the script.
Big reason for that is the Magic are still missing two of their best players as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic both remain sidelined with ankle injuries. Not to mention Orlando has just not showed up against the better team. Raptors are way better than just about anyone anticipated after losing Kawhi Leonard. They have won 5 straight and are 13-4 overall.
Road favorites (TORONTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 69-35 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto!
|11-29-19||UAB v. Kentucky UNDER 130||Top||58-69||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB /Kentucky under 130 -110
I love the value here with the UNDER in this one. While UAB has little to no shot of winning this game, I think the Blazers are good enough defensively to hold their own against an injury plagued Kentucky team to keep this UNDER the mark.
UAB's defense is the main reason they are off to a strong 4-1 start. Blazers only average 64.0 ppg, but are holding teams to just 58.4 ppg. While the strong defensive play has come against some weak competition, they are holding teams a full 8-points under their scoring average.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding, as they are allowing just 61.7 ppg and holding teams almost 12 points under their average. I could easily see the Blazers failing to score more than 50 and I just don't see Kentucky's offense going off for 80+ in this one.
UNDER is 10-2 in UAB's last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 10-2 in Kentucky's last 12 non-conference, 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 20+ and 13-3-1 in their last 17 vs a team from C-USA. Take the UNDER!
|11-29-19||SIU-Edwardsville +12.5 v. Cal-Riverside||51-69||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110
SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number.
The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville!
|11-29-19||Michigan v. Gonzaga -3||82-64||Loss||-109||3 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Gonzaga -3 -109
I just really like this Gonzaga team and feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Bulldogs. Michigan has impressed early on and are off that big upset over No. 6 UNC on Thanksgiving Day.
Not to take anything away from the Wolverines, but they simply couldn't miss. Michigan shot 50% from the field and 42% from deep. It's hard to stack those kinds of games on top of each other, especially against elite competition.
Gonzaga is every bit as good as they have been in the past few years and I think it says a lot about this team being able to beat a really good Oregon team, despite an off night shooting. Bulldogs hit just 39% from the field and 32% from deep.
Wolverines are just 1-8 last 9 times they come into a game having covered 4 of their last 5. Underdogs in November who are shooting 52% or better from the field are also a mere 16-41 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Gonzaga!
|11-29-19||Celtics v. Nets UNDER 216.5||107-112||Loss||-109||3 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Nets under 216½ -109
I really like the value here with the UNDER 216.5 in Friday's early NBA action between the Celtics and Nets. This is a far cry from what NBA players are use to in terms of start time for a game and I just think when you have games this early, especially on Friday, it's hard for players to get up for the game and play at their normal tempo.
On top of that, these two teams just played Wednesday night in Boston, so both teams are going to be much better equipped for what the other wants to do offensively. UNDER is 15-5 in the Celtics last 20 division road games and 5-1 in the Nets last 6 overall. Take the UNDER!
|11-28-19||UCF +2.5 v. Pennsylvania||67-68||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCF +2½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the Knights in their opening round matchup against Penn in the Wooden Legacy out in Anaheim. UCF has started out 3-1 with their only loss coming to Miami. They responded to that setback with two impressive wins over Illinois State and Charleston.
Penn comes in off a big upset win over Providence, but the Quakers have also lost to the likes of Rice and Lafayette by double-digits as favorites. Big thing for me is I don't think Penn will have much left in the tank for this tournament. Quakers have played 4 of their first 5 on the road.
Knights are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 away from home in the month of November and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Quakers just 1-4 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. Take UCF!
|11-28-19||Davidson +3.5 v. Marquette||Top||63-73||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Davidson +3½ -109
I love the value here with Davidson as a small dog against Marquette, as I think the Wildcats win this game outright. I know Davidson is just 2-3, but the schedule hasn't been easy. Marquette has a special player in Markus Howard, but I just like the overall talent with this Golden Eagles team.
While this will be on a neutral site, Marquette did not fair well in their only other game away from home this season, losing by 16 as a mere 2-point dog to Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles let the Badgers connect on 11 3-pointers in that loss and Davidson is a team that can light it up from deep. Wildcats come in shooting 39% from deep and are averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.
Marquette is just 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 games played on a neutral site. Take Davidson!
|11-27-19||Lakers v. Pelicans +6.5||114-110||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Pelicans +6½ -110
I like the value here with New Orleans as a decent home dog against the Lakers. Anytime LA is playing an inferior team you know the books are going to inflate the number and I think that's definitely the case here.
Lakers got nothing to prove here. They come in having won 8 straight and 15 of 16 overall. With their next two at home and Thanksgiving tomorrow, I have a hard time believing they are all that interested in this one. Pelicans on the other hand are going to play their hearts out, especially with all the old Lakers that make up this New Orleans roster.
Lakers are just 1-3 ATS over their last 4, which includes a mere 1-point win at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. I see this going very similar to that one. Take New Orleans!
|11-27-19||Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5||69-71||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -1½ -110
This one is pretty simple. When Dana Altman's Ducks are matched up against a ranked team, you back Oregon. The Ducks are a dominant 18-2-1 ATS since 2015 against ranked opponents.
As good as Seton Hall has looked early on, I would argue that Oregon has looked even better. While Seton Hall has that close call at home against Michigan State, that's really the only tough matchup they have had. Ducks have beat the likes of Boise State, Memphis and Houston and the closest any team has got to beating them is 8-points.
Ducks are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral site and a perfect 7-0 ATS when they come in having covered 4 or more in a row. Take Oregon!
|11-27-19||Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors||98-126||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Knicks +10½ -109
I really like the value here with New York getting double-digits against the Raptors. While these two teams are polar opposites in terms of their overall record, the Knicks have shown a lot of fight against some of the top teams.
They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and in their last road game against a good 76ers team that only lost by 5 as a 13-point dog. Knicks are 3-0 ATS this season when getting double-digits and 6-1 ATS when catching more than 7.
Toronto comes in having won 4 straight going 3-1 ATS in this stretch. However, the Raptors are just 10-22 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of 4 and just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after 4 or more consecutive wins. Take New York!
|11-27-19||Nets +7.5 v. Celtics||110-121||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Nets +7½ -105
This is too good a price here with Brooklyn catching a big number on the road against the Celtics. While the Nets will still be without Kyrie Irving, they haven't really missed him of late. Brooklyn comes in having won 4 straight. The Nets are also a strong 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
No question Boston is the better team and this is probably one they had circled to start the year, as it would have been their first game against Irving since he left. I think with him being sidelined it takes away a lot of motivation for the Celtics and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them come out a bit sluggish.
Boston is just 1-8-2 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a losing road record and just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 home games overall. Nets on the other hand are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Brooklyn!
|11-27-19||Niagara +9.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||54-77||Loss||-109||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Niagara +9½ -109
The Purple Eagles are worth a look here as a near double-digit dog against the Jaguars. Niagara is way undervalued here due to the fact that they have started out 0-4. Thing is 3 of those were true road games against better teams and they were also a dog in their lone home loss.
IUPU-Ft Wayne is 3-5 and have two wins against non-D1 schools and the other was against an awful Stetson team. The Jaguars have no business laying double-digits in this game. They are just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record, while the Purple Eagles 12-3 ATS last 15 after 2 or more straight losses. Take Niagara!
|11-27-19||St. Louis +3 v. Boston College||Top||64-54||Win||100||4 h 25 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. Louis +3 -109
Love the value here with St Louis getting points against the Eagles. This will be the Billikens first road game of the season after 6 straight at home, but I'm not concerned. St Louis is 5-1 with their only loss against currently No. 13 ranked Seton Hall.
These two have played 3 common opponents. Billikens are 3-0 and outscored those 3 teams by 13.2 ppg. BC is 2-1 and only outscoring those teams by 5 ppg. Eagles come in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time out shot just 36% from the field against DePaul.
Look for junior big man Hasahn French to have his way in this one. French is one of the best players in the American and should dominate inside not only scoring but on the boards. BC doesn't have a ton of size and rank near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebound rates.
Eagles are just 1-9 ATS last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home after 2 straight non-conference games. Take St Louis!
|11-26-19||Wizards v. Nuggets OVER 226.5||104-117||Loss||-110||9 h 22 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Nuggets over 226½ -110
I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action between Denver and Washington. The Nuggets have been great defensively over their recent 9-1 stretch, but I just don't think we are going to see a big effort on that side against a bad Wizards team, especially with the holiday's coming up and Denver getting a much-needed 3-day break after this game.
Washington is also a team that just doesn't play any defense and if Denver gets up big they aren't going to keep trying on the defensive side of the ball. Wizards have allowed 113 or more points in 11 of their last 12 games, giving up 120 or more 7 times in this stretch. Only one of their last 6 games has seen a combined less than 243 points.
OVER is 20-8 in the Wizards last 28 off a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 31-17 in their last 48 with a total set in the 220's. Take the OVER!
|11-26-19||Dayton -1 v. Virginia Tech||89-62||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dayton -1 -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a pick'em against the Hokies on Tuesday. Most will be looking to take Virginia Tech here as they just knocked off No. 3 Michigan State last night 71-66 as a 13-point dog. Thing is, those big upset wins are often times the toughest to bounce back from.
That win also keeps Dayton from potentially overlooking the Hokies, who honestly weren't expected to do a lot this season. Flyers had a pretty impressive win of their own yesterday, as they throttled Georgia 80-61 to improve to 4-0 and 3-1 ATS.
One thing I really like about Dayton right now is they are red-hot from deep. They hit 10 3-pointers two games ago against Nebraska-Omaha and connected on 16 of 19 from long range against the Spartans. Flyers are 15-4 ATS last 19 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers. Take Dayton!
|11-26-19||Richmond v. Auburn -8||65-79||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Auburn -8 -109
Easy play here on Auburn laying single-digits against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is getting a little too much love here after yesterday's 62-52 upset win over Wisconsin. It's just not easy for these smaller teams to pull off back-to-back upsets, especially in a 2-day stretch.
Auburn showed they were all business in this tournament, as they improved to 6-0 with a 84-59 blowout win over New Mexico as a 9-point favorite. Keep in mind not only are the Tigers more athletic and talented, they are a much deeper team. Richmond had 3 different guys play 34+ minutes in the win over Wisconsin (only one bench player recorded double-digit minutes).
Tigers are now 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, 10-1 ATS last 11 tournament games and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. Take Auburn!