20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic tonight off eight straight losses.  They have battled through injuries and continue to show up every night, which showed in their 97-102 loss as 7.5-point dogs to Miami last time out.  They also covered in an 8-point loss to the Heat a few games prior.  They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Magic have had the last three days off to rest up and get healthier.  Both Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon returned to practice finally and could play tonight.  Terrance Ross is also questionable and could play.  The Magic are more than capable of beating the Knicks without these guys given how rested and ready they are, but getting them back would be an added bonus.

This is an awful spot for the Knicks.  They return home following a four-game road trip that saw them lose to Milwaukee, Brooklyn and Philadelphia.  They lost by 5 to the Nets and by 3 to the 76ers in their last two games in heartbreaking fashion.  I think they suffer a hangover from those defeats, and I always like fading teams in their first game back home from a long road trip.  Not to mention, the Knicks are far from full strength with Mitchell Robinson, Derrick Rose, Austin Rivers and Elfrid Payton out plus star rookie Immanuel Quickley is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) - a cold team having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against an opponent that has lost four or five of their last six games are 45-17 (72.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after a division game.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Clippers/Mavericks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 227

I really like to bet UNDERS on these games that are rematches when teams play each other two games in a row.  Teams get familiar with each other and it always seems to favor defense in that 2nd meeting.

Plus, the recent head-to-head history between these teams suggests there's a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Clippers and Mavericks with combined scores of 208, 197 and 198 points.  That's an average of 201 combined points per game, which is 26 points less than this 227-point total.

The Clippers just beat the Mavericks 109-99 on Monday in the first meeting of this double-header.  And both teams shot really well with the Clippers shooting 50% from the field and 43.7% from 3-point range.  The Mavericks shot 49.4% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range.  So it was played at a snail's pace, and it should be more of the same here.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Mavericks last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +2

I love the spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight games with two of those losses coming to the Nuggets by a single point and the Suns on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on them as well off those three straight losses.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Heat after 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  All of their recent wins have come against bottom feeders.  Only two of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records.  Their current five-game winning streak has come against the Pelicans, Magic (twice), Bulls and Cavaliers.

This is an awful spot for the Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Don't be surprised to see them rest some players in this one, most notably Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler.

The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Miami is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a win by 15 points or more.  Take the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -11.5

The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now.  They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry with this team.  And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point, it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.

The Rockets are 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have now lost 10 straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 19.9 points per game.  They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They could be without Danuel House, CHristian Wood, Ben McLemore and will likely be without Victor Oladipo, who is doubtful.

Oladipo is doubtful due to rest after scoring 34 points in their 107-119 loss to the Hawks last night.  Now the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This situation is awful for most teams, but especially troubling for a team like the Rockets that is short-handed already.

I have zero concern about a Warriors letdown tonight, too, which is why I'm willing to lay this large number.  The Warriors will be highly motivated for a victory after going 1-5 in their last six games overall.  But those six games came against the class of the league in the Lakers (twice), Clippers, Jazz, Suns and Blazers.  They even upset the Jazz by 12 for their lone victory.  This is a huge step down in class for them and a great opportunity to get back on the right track.  They will take advantage.

The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.  Enough said.  Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets after going 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall.  They are starting to just go through the motions, and I successfully faded them in each of their last two wins over Detroit by 5 as 11-point home favorites and New York by 5 as 8.5-point home favorites.

Now I'm fully expecting the Nets to lose outright as they hit the road here after playing a very weak schedule of late with their last seven wins coming against the Kings, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks.  This is a step up in class against the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are as healthy as they've been in a long time with the debut of Caris LeVert two games ago against the Phoenix Suns, a game they won outright 122-111 as 7-point dogs to flash their potential.  That was the 2nd of a back-to-back after a tough 5-point road loss to the Lakers the night before.  And they went on to lose to the Nuggets on the road in a very tough 3-game road trip coming out of the All-Star Break.  

Now the Pacers are back home here and primed to upset the Nets.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after going 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  And you know LeVert is going to want some revenge here after the Nets just traded him away mid-season.  Look for a huge game from him, and for his teammates to rally around him and get this outright victory, though we'll take the 4 points for some insurance.

The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Indiana is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % above .600.  The Pacers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to cover six or seven of their last eight games.

Plays against road favorites (Brooklyn) - after four or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing against a team with a losing record are 57-25 (59.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 240

Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS.  Those are the only three sure things in life.  The Pelicans have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season.  They have gone 28-6 OVER in their last 34 games overall.  And the books have once again not set the number high enough here against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 240-plus points in nine of their last 13 games overall without any of those 240-plus efforts going to overtime.  The Pelicans rank 6th in offensive efficiency at 113.5 points per 100 possessions and 28th in defensive efficiency at 113.7 points per 100 possessions.  That makes them the perfect OVER team.

The Blazers are in the same boat as they are 29th in defensive efficiency at 114.5 points per 100 possessions allowed.  Only the Kings have been worse.  But Portland is 8th in offensive efficiency, and they get a big boost on that end with the return of CJ McCollum from a foot injury tonight.  He averaged 26.7 points and 5.0 assists per game in 13 games prior to the injury.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 250, 243 and 245 points with none of those games going to overtime.  Six of the past nine meetings have seen 240 or more combined points.  Three of Portland's last four games have seen 242 or more combined points coming in.  Roll with the OVER In this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -9.5

The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the NBA right now.  They have had players wanting traded all season, and it just has been a terrible chemistry.  And the injury situation is so bad that they aren't even playing replacement-level players at this point it's a bunch of guys who should be in the G League.

The Rockets are 0-16 SU & 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They have now lost nine straight games by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.8 points per game.  They are without John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They could be without Christian Wood, Danuel House and Ben McLemore tonight as well.

Since the Hawks went to Nate McMillan as head coach they have been on fire.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and coming off two striaght blowout wins by 15 over Sacramento and by 18 over Cleveland.  Sitting at 19-20 this season, the Hawks have a chance to get to .500 for the first time since late January.  They will be motivated to do just that, so I don't expect a letdown here against Houston.

The nine straight losses by 11-plus points for Houston makes for a 9-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 9.5-point spread tonight.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.  Take the Hawks Tuesday.

20* Jazz/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show in their performances.  They just got Marcus Smart back after the All-Star Break and are now a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Brooklyn, which is playing as well as anyone right now in going 13-1 in their last 14 games overall.  Boston should not be catching 4.5 points at home against Utah tonight.

The Jazz are overvalued due to that incredible run they went on until right up before the All-Star Break.  The Jazz have finally come back down to reality of late.  They are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with upset losses to the Warriors, 76ers, Pelicans and Heat.  Their only two wins came against the Magic and Rockets.  The Rockets are 0-16 in their last 16 games, while the Magic are 0-8 in their last eight contests.

The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Jazz are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games when playing 3 or fewer games in 10 days.  The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after playing a road game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Boston.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +8

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets, who are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  I successfully backed the Pistons +11.5 against the Nets in a 5-point loss to them in Brooklyn's last game Saturday.  And now I'm fading them again tonight with the New York Knicks as 8-point underdogs.

The Knicks have been grossly undervalued all season.  They are 20-19 SU & 22-17 ATS this year.  They are coming off a 119-97 win in Oklahoma City for their fifth win in their last seven games.  Four of those five wins came by double-digits.  

Now the Knicks will be motivated to show they can play with a team like Brooklyn on National TV tonight.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and hasn't lost any of those games by more than 7 points.  That's important when we're talking about this 8-point spread tonight.

In fact, Brooklyn has just one win in its last 13 meetings with New York by more than 8 points, and that was a 10-point victory.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 8-point spread.  New York is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after playing two consecutive road games.  Take the Knicks Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +9.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards after going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall.  But their losses all came to good teams in Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Memphis (twice).  And they also upset the Clippers.

They only lost 119-125 to the Bucks at home on Saturday without both Bradley Beal and Dylan Bertans.  So they've proven they can hang with the Bucks even without these two, and there's a decent chance they get one or both back for the rematch today as both are questionable.  

The Wizards will be the more motivated team here for revenge in this double-header situation.  I think the Bucks will relax enough that it will make it extremely difficult for them to win by 10-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Wizards have been undervalued for weeks as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall . Washington is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 Monday games.  The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

I faded the Toronto Raptors yesterday with success on the Charlotte Hornets, who beat them 114-104 as 2-point favorites.  I'm fading them again today for a number of the same reasons, not the least of which they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight and will not have much left in the tank.

The Raptors remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID.  That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup.  Their losses will be amplified in this 2nd of a back-to-back situatuion.

It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets.  Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

I have no doubt the Bulls will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after coming out of the All-Star Break with two straight losses to the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat.  Those two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  Now the Bulls get a big step down in class here against the Raptors, who in their current state are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  And the Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now and the chemistry should be there in their 3rd game back from the break.

Chicago is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after losing four of its last five games coming in.  The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Bulls tonight.  Bet the Bulls Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pelicans OVER 234

The OVER is 27-6 in Pelicans last 33 games overall.  They have been the best OVER team in the NBA this season, and I think they have set this number against the Clippers too low here Sunday in what should be another shootout.

The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season giving up 113.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers can name their score as they rank 2nd in offensive efficiency, scoring 116.1 points per 100 possessions.  

The Pelicans are 8th in offensive efficiency as well at 113.1 points per 100 possessions.  And they may not have to face Patrick Beverly, who is the Clippers' best defender and expected to miss this game.  That means more Lou Williams and better offense but worse defense for the Clippers in this one.

New Orleans is 10-1 OVER when revenging a road loss this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans eight home games following an ATS win this season.  The OVER is 7-2 in Clippers last nine games as a road favorite.  The OVER is 17-4 in Pelicans last 21 home games.  The OVER is 8-0 in Pelicans last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -10.5

Things are getting worse before they get better for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets are 0-15 SU & 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Each of their last eight losses have come by 11 points or more, and I think we can chalk up a ninth straight loss by 11-plus here against the Boston Celtics before this one is even played.

The Rockets are a G League team right now at best.  They are without Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, John Wall, Danuel House, PJ Tucker and Rodions Kurucs.  They are lokely to be without Victor Oladipo, who is questionable.  They just don't have many healthy bodies, and the ones they do are not even replacement-level players.  It's no wonder they have lost 15 straight and eight straight by 11-plus.

The Boston Celtics come in as healthy as they have been all season as they just got Marcus Smart back from injury after the All-Star Break.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Brooklyn Nets, who are playing as well as anyone right now.  They come in rested on two days' rest and can seriously just show up and win this game by 11-plus tonight.

Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Take the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They were only double-digit favorites once during this streak, and that was against the Houston Rockets, who have now lost 15 straight games and are probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

Now the Nets are laying double-digits to a Detroit Pistons team that keeps showing up despite some injury problems all season.  The Pistons have finally gotten healthy now and have an absolute stud in Jerami Grant leading the way.

The Pistons have only lost by more than 10 points twice in their last 12 games overall.  So they have been very competitive, and I look for them to give the Nets a run for their money tonight.  The Nets are in a letdown spot off their big win over Boston.  And they just don't blow out the Pistons very often.

Detroit has only lost by more than 10 points to Brooklyn once in the last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing three consecutive road games.  Detroit is 9-1 ATS in its 10 games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They sit at 18-18 on the season after going 8-4 in their last 12 games overall.  And they have been especially good when fully healthy, which is the case for them right now.

The same cannot be said for the Raptors.  They remain without Pascal Siakam (20.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.8 APG), Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG) and OG Anunoby (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) due to COVID.  That's roughly 54 points per game they are missing in their lineup.

It's no surprise that the Raptors have struggled of late without them, going 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their lone victory coming against the Houston Rockets.  Well, that's a Rockets team that has now lost 15 straight games and is probably the worst team in the NBA right now.

The Hornets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  They only reason they didn't cover last game was because the Pistons got a meaningless layup at the buzzer.  Charlotte is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Toronto and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans had a gutless performance yesterday in their first game back from the All-Star Break.  You would think a team that lost four of its last five going into the break would come out motivated.  But they simply weren't, and they fell 105-135 to Minnesota despite being an 8-point favorite.  That's a Timberwolves that was 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their previous nine games and they lost by 30 to them.

Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and don't be surprised if they rest Zion Williamson like they sometimes do on these back-to-backs.  Either way, the Pelicans cannot be trusted to be laying 7.5 points here in this situation against a Cleveland Cavaliers team playing their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Cavaliers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset wins over the Hawks as 7.5-point dogs, Rockets twice as dogs and 76ers are 11.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to the Pacers by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs.  They come out of the break with a ton of momentum and looking to pick up right where they left off here.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Pelicans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are finally healthy and rolling.  They are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with an upset win over the Clippers by 28 and a 1-point loss to the Bucks as 6-point dogs.  All four victories came by 14 points or more as well.

Now the Grizzlies take on a Denver Nuggets team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers and shouldn't be road favorites here.  But the Nuggets are getting that respect due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their final four games going into the All-Star Break with three of those wins coming against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in the Thunder, Bulls and Pacers.

I like the fact that the Grizzlies have already played a game out of the break with their 127-112 win over the Wizards to knock off the rust.  Meanwhile, Denver hasn't played since March 4th and will be rusty.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on three or more days' rest.

Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Kings OVER 227.5

The Sacramento Kings have been a great OVER bet all season.  They are 25-11 OVER in their 36 games this year.  And rarely do you see a Kings total set less than 230, so we will take advantage today and back the OVER.

The OVER is 11-1 in Kings last 12 games overall.  In fact, 13 of their last 14 games have seen 228 or more combined points, which makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 227.5-point total.

The Rockets have pretty much quit defensively as they have allowed 118 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  But they should get their offense going here against a Kings team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.

Sacramento is 7-0 OVER In home games vs. a team with a losing record this season.  The OVER is 5-0 on Rockets last five games as road underdogs.  The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 235 or more points four times.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

I like the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They lost their second-to-last game prior to the All-Star Break to these same Dallas Mavericks 78-87 on the road.  Now they come out of the break and get to host the Mavericks and will obviously be motivated for revenge.

They get to face the Mavericks in a much more vulnerable spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 115-104 home win over the Dallas Mavericks last night.  Don't be surprised if they decide to rest either Porzingis or Doncic, but either way I like the Thunder here.

The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on zero rest.  Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are probably the worst team in the NBA right now.  They are 5-29 SU in their last 34 games overall.  They are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall with their last five losses coming by an average of 20.4 points per game.

Making matters worse for the Timberwolves is that they just lost Malik Beasley and his 20.5 PPG to a 12-game suspension.  He was one of the few brights spots on this team pre-suspension.  They are still without De'Angelo Russell and his 19.3 PPG and 5.1 APG.  That's roughly 40 PPG they are missing between those two players combined.  There just isn't much talent on this team now outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is a terrible leader.

Now the Timberwolves come out of the All-Star Break and face a Pelicans team that will be motivated to make a playoff push.  I think we get an undervalued Pelicans team due to losing four of their last five games going into the break.  Three of those losses came by 4 points or less.  The other loss was the 2nd of a back-to-back to Miami without Zion Williamson.  They also upset the Jazz as 7-point underdogs.

Now the Pelicans take a big step down in competition and should handle the Timberwolves.  New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games playing on three or more days' rest.  This is a game they should win by double-digits against the pathetic Timberwolves.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -4.5

The Charlotte Hornets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are just 0.5 games behind the Miami Heat for first place in the Southeast Division.  And now they get two key players back from injury out of the All-Star Break in Devonte Graham and P.J. Washington.

The Detroit Pistons are a mess.  They are just 10-26 this season and sitting in last place in the Central Division.  They just traded away Blake Griffin and are dealing with a plethora of injuries.  They are 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall with their only wins coming against two depleted teams at the time they faced them in the Raptors and Magic.

Charlotte simply owns Detroit, going 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Hornets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Charlotte is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Hornets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Mavericks OVER 222.5

The Mavericks were an OVER machine for several weeks once they got healthy.  But as the books have started to set the numbers too high recently, they have gone 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall.  But now they have adjusted too much and this 222.5-point total is too low tonight against San Antonio.

The Mavericks were without Luka Doncic in their final game before the All-Star Break due to a back injury.  It resulted in a low scoring 87-78 win over Oklahoma City.  That lone result has provided us some line value with the OVER.  Doncic is expected to return to the lineup for this game.

Speaking of returning to the lineup, the Spurs are getting several key players back from either injury or quarantine.  They will now be hitting on all cylinders offensively moving forward with Derrick White, Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge all expected to be back for this game.

Dallas beat San Antonio 122-117 for 239 combined points on January 22nd in their lone meeting this season.  The OVER is 11-3 in Spurs last 14 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Warriors/Suns UNDER 224.5

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the slowest teams in the NBA due to having Chris Paul at point guard.  They rank 29th in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.  Only the Knicks play at a slow tempo than they do.

But the reason the Suns sit atop the Pacific Division standings is because they are a great defensive team.  The Suns rank 6th in defensively efficiency.  And most wouldn't know this, but the Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in ranking 5th in defensive efficiency.  

The Warriors just got Wiseman and Looney back from injury recently to shore up their interior defense.  Neither of these players add much offensively.  And the Warriors are a tired team after losing 106-108 in Portland last night, so they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  It will affect their shooting more than their defensive effort.

Looking at the head-to-head history in this series, it's mind-blowing that the oddsmakers have set this total so high tonight.  The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings, including combined scores of 207, 214, 218 and 201 points in the last four meetings.  That's an average of just 210 combined points per game, which is 14.5 points less than this 224.5-point total.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors last six games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four games playing on zero rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last five road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five Thursday games.  Combine these four trends with the 7-0 UNDER head-to-head trend and we have a 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 219

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have already played twice this season, and familiarity favors defense.  And based off those first two meetings, I cannot believe the books have set this total as high as they have tonight at 219 points.

The Spurs won the first meeting on January 12th 112-102 on the road for 214 combined points.  The Thunder got revenge in the rematch with a 102-99 victory on February 24th and just 201 combined points.  That game took place just over a week ago, so these teams are really familiar with one another.

The Spurs are hurting offensively right now with all their injury and COVID issues.  The Thunder have scored 78 and 96 points in their last two games coming in and have been held to 102 or fewer points in four of their last five.  They are an atrocious offensive team, but they have held six of their last seven opponents to 109 points or fewer and continue to get after it defensively.

The UNDER is 8-3 in Thunder last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 46-21-1 in Thunder last 68 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Heat/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227

I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust.  I cashed in their OVER last night, and they haven't adjusted enough tonight either.  The OVER is 26-4 in Pelicans last 30 games overall.  The OVER is 13-1 in Pelicans last 14 games as well.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 13 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime.  They have combined with their opponents to average 244.5 points per game at the end of regulation in those 13 games.  That's still nearly 18 points more points than this total of 227.  The OVER is 16-2 in Pelicans last 18 home games as well.

The Heat have gotten healthier here of late and have scored 108 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They can pretty much name their number against this awful Pelicans defense that has allowed at least 113 points in 12 consecutive games.

Plays on the OVER on home games where the total is 210 or higher (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 43-12 (78.2%) since 1996.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 236.5

I'm going to continue riding this Pelicans OVER train until the books properly adjust.  They haven't adjusted enough tonight.  The OVER is 25-4 in Pelicans last 29 games overall.  The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 games as well.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for 231 or more points in 12 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime.  They have combined with their opponents to average 243.9 points per game at the end of regulation in those 12 games.  That's still 7 more points than this total of 236.5.  The OVER is 15-2 in Pelicans last 17 home games as well.

These teams just met on February 10th less than a month ago.  They combined for 245 points in that game with a 129-116 victory by Chicago.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with an average combined score of 240.8 points per game.  The fact of the matter is they just can't set these Pelicans totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -7

Giannis Antetokounmpo is back to playing at an MVP level.  He has scored 35 or more points in four consecutive games.  A big reason for his and the Bucks' success is the return of Jrue Holiday to the lineup at point guard to help open everything up for everyone else.  He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  Plus, Khris Middleton has had two 30-point games in his last four contests.

The result has been the Bucks living up to their potential of late in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with those five wins coming by an average of 9.6 points per game.  Now the Bucks are primed for another big performance here as they have the huge rest adavantage as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.

Meanwhile, Denver will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  The Nuggets haven't had two straight days off since the beginning of February.  Injuries are mounting up as the Nuggets are now without Green, MIllsap, Harris and Campazzo.  Being short-handed right now makes this situation even more difficult for them.  They needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Bulls 118-112 last night, meaning their starters had to play big minutes as Jokic played 38, Barton 36, Porter Jr. 35, Murray 35 and Morris 33.

The Nuggets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Milwaukee gets the win and cover tonight and continues its recent surge in this favorable spot.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NBA TOTAL OF THE DAY on Knicks/Spurs UNDER 215.5

The San Antonio Spurs are short-handed right now due to COVID-19 protocols.  They will definitely be on tired legs tonight after losing 113-124 (OT) to the Brooklyn Nets last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  It will hurt them more offensively than defensively.

Now the Spurs take on a Knicks team that will play right into their favor and not try and push the tempo.  That's because the Knicks rank dead last in pace at 30th and 98.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks are also just 23rd in offensive efficiency this season.  They are an UNDER bettors' dream.

The Knicks are 23-12 UNDER this season, including 14-3 UNDER in their last 17 road games.  The Spurs are 6-3 UNDER in their last nine games overall.  San Antonio is not a very good shooting team and that has been a big reason why they rank just 20th in offensive efficiency this season.  The Knicks are 3rd in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are a solid 13th.

San Antonio is 7-0 UNDER after losing two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Knicks last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Clippers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone just 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But a lot of that had to do with injuries.  The Clippers are now fully healthy and will be. force moving forward.  And keep in mind those four losses came to the Bucks, Grizzlies, Nets and Jazz.  They also avenged both of those losses to the Jazz and Grizzlies.

Now the Clippers will be out for revenge from a 115-119 home loss to the Celtics on February 5th less than a month ago in which they blew a 62-51 halftime lead.  The Celtics are much worse off now as they are without Marcus Smart and could be without Jaylen Brown, who is questionable with a knee injury.

The Celtics have gone just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games since that win over the Clippers.  But they are starting to get some respect tonight after two straight wins over the Pacers and Wizards by a combined 7 points.  They faced a Wizards team that was on the 2nd of a back-to-back and only won that game by a single point.  And that is a Pacers team that is struggling mightily right now.  This will be a big step up in class for the Celtics tonight.

This is a very resilient Clippers team that has only lost two in a row once all season.  They are 10-1 SU in their 11 games following a loss this season.  Los Angeles is now 41-16 ATS in its last 57 games following a SU loss.  The Clippers are 45-21 ATS in their last 66 games as road favorites.  Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.  Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Boston.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +6

The San Antonio Spurs got a nice break with nine days off here recently.  They returned and were rusty in a 99-102 loss at Oklahoma City.  But they bounced back with a 117-114 home win over the Pelicans on Saturday.  The rust is knocked off now, and they are rested and ready to go while primed to pull an upset against the Brooklyn Nets in San Antonio tonight.

The Nets just had their eight-game winning streak snapped with a 98-115 home loss to the Mavericks on Saturday.  I always like fading teams the game after their winning streak ends, because there always seems to be a hangover factor.

The Nets are overvalued as it is after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, so it's definitely time to 'sell high' on them.  Especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now with Kevin Durant out, Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot questionable, and Irving battling a shoulder injury.

The Spurs are 22-2 SU in their last 24 home meetings with the Nets.  San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Spurs are 11-2 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Roll with the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Pelicans OVER 235.5

The Pelicans are 24-4 OVER in their last 28 games overall.  They are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games.  And those numbers would be 25-3 and 12-0 if you got the OVER 228 opener like I did in their last game against the Spurs, which closed at 232.5 and finished at 231.

The Pelicans have now combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 11 consecutive games with only one of those games going to overtime.  They have averaged 243.1 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last 11 games, which is still nearly 8 points higher than this posted total of 235.5.

The OVER is 4-1 in Jazz last five games overall with combined scores of 233 or more points in four of those five games.  The Jazz have scored at least 112 points in 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 games overall.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, which explains the big run they are on in winning 23 of their last 26 games overall.

One of those wins came 129-118 over New Orleans on January 21st in a game that saw 247 combined points.  They had 139 combined points at halftime and cruised to an easy OVER.  I expect it to be more of the same in the rematch as this game easily tops 235.5 combined points.

The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 Monday games.  The OVER is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.  The OVER is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in New Orleans.  The OVER is 14-2 in Pelicans last 16 home games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 7-0 OVER when revenging a road loss this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are as healthy as they've been all season and it's starting to pay dividends.  The Heat have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have beaten the defending champion Lakers, the 2019 champion Raptors and the team with the best record in the NBA in the Utah Jazz during this stretch.

Now the Heat host a struggling Atlanta Hawks team that is as banged up as they have been all season.  The Hawks are just 4-10 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are coming off a 9-point road loss to the Thunder as 5.5-point favorites.  They were also upset at Cleveland as 8-point favorites in their previous road game.  

The Hawks have now lost five of their last six road games and are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Trae Young is battling a groin injury and is questionable to play today.  Cam Reddish is doubtful with an Achilles, and they are already without De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  It's no wonder they are struggling so much of late.

The Heat have won four of their last five meetings with the Hawks with three of those wins coming by 9 points or more.  Miami has a chance to get to .500 for the first time since the beginning of the season, so they should be motivated here and won't be taking the Hawks lightly.  Roll with the Heat Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 228

Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS.  Those are the three things you can count on in life right now.  And we'll keep backing this OVER train as the books have not set the number high enough today against the San Antonio Spurs.

The OVER 24-3 in Pelicans last 27 games overall, including 11-0 in their last 11 games.  They have combined with their opponents for 231 or more points in 10 consecutive games coming in.  Only one of those games went to overtime.  They have averaged 244.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those 10 games.  That's 16.3 points higher than this total set of 228.

The Spurs and Pelicans have combined for 235 or more points in four of their last six meetings.  The OVER is 16-1 in Pelicans last 17 games after allowing 115 points or more last game.  The OVER is 17-1 in Pelicans last 18 games after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games this season.  New Orleans is 9-0 OVER after a combined score of 245 or more points this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Beal and Westbrook have formed a great chemistry and they have gotten most of their players healthy, which has made a huge difference in their recent surge.

It's not like the Wizards are beating up on cupcakes, either.  They have won outright as 6.5-point dogs at Boston (104-91), as 4.5-point dogs at Portland (118-11), as 7-point dogs at the Lakers (127-124), and as 8-point dogs at Denver (112-110).  They also upset Denver (130-128) as 4.5-point home dogs and crushed Houston (131-119) as 2-point home favorites.  Their only loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Clippers the night after beating the Lakers in OT, so it was understandable.

The Wizards won't be losing to the awful Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-26 SU in their last 31 games overall, including 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last nine losses coming by 4 points or more.  

They are one of the most tired teams in the NBA right now playing their 16th game in 27 days.  They haven't had two days off in a row since January 16th and 17th.  Things have only gotten worse now as Malik Beasley (20.5 PPG) has been suspended for the next 12 games.  He was one of the few bright spots on this team.  The Timberwolves are still without De'Angelo Russell (19.3 PPG, 5.1 APG) as well.

Minnesota is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with the Timberwolves.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 233.5

The Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets will be playing in a rematch tonight from Charlotte's 102-100 win on February 20th.  So they will meet less than a week later after combining for just 202 points in that game.  And the total has been set at 233.5 points for the rematch, which is way too high when you consider familiarity favors defense and UNDERS.

Charlotte actually shot 49.3% as a team and 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only scored 102 points.  It was played at a very slow pace, and I think this rematch could be just as slow or even slower based on recent developments on the injury front for the Warriors.

Golden State just got back two post players in Wiseman and Looney, which will force them to play bigger lineups and will also help them out defensively as Wiseman is an eraser.  They held the Knicks to 106 points and the Pacers to 107 points in their two games since both guys returned.  Those games saw just 220 and 218 combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on home games where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - in non-conference games off a road win are 37-9 (80.4%) since 1996.  Charlotte is 21-5 UNDER in its last 26 games with a total of 230 or higher.  Golden State is 8-1 UNDER In its last nine games following two consecutive road games.

The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings with the last three seeing 202, 197 and 180 combined points.  All seven saw 231 or fewer combined points with an average of just 205.1 combined points per game.  That's more than 28 points less than this 233.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 225

I cashed in the Grizzlies +8 in their 122-94 upset win over the Clippers last night.  Now I like the UNDER in the rematch tonight after seeing just 216 combined points in that first meeting.  Familiarity favors defense and lower scoring games, so we'll take the UNDER tonight.

Memphis isn't going to shoot 54.3% overall and 57.9% from 3-point range like they did last night.  The Clippers won't shoot as poorly as they did, but in the end it will be a similarly low scoring game that stays well UNDER this 225-point total.

The Grizzlies are a much better defensive team now that they got a lot of guys back from injury, including Brandon Clarke, Justice Winslow and Kyle Anderson who are all great defenders.  Clearly that showed last night as they stifled the Clippers, who are tough to tame.  

And the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA themselves led by Kawhi and Patrick Beverly.  Both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Clippers are just 27th in pace while the Grizzlies are 14th.

The UNDER is 24-8 in Grizzlies last 32 home games.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Grizzlies last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Miami Heat +6.5

Whether or not the Utah Jazz keep covering, you're paying a tax to bet them now because the verdict is out on them.  That's because they have gone 22-2 SU & 21-3 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  My job is to find value, and there's definitely value in fading the Utah Jazz moving forward due to the streak they've been on.

I'll pick my spots, and this looks like a great spot to fade the Jazz.  The Miami Heat will be out for revenge from a 94-112 loss at Utah on February 13th less than two weeks ago.  The Heat have gotten a lot healthier since and get them at home this time around.

The Heat are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four wins by 8 points or more and an upset road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  They have gotten several key players back from injury recently including Goran Dragic, and they could get Tyler Herro back tonight.  This is pretty much as healthy as they have been all season.

We saw what they could do when healthy last season in making it to the NBA Finals.  And after digging themselves an early hole, this team is playing with a sense of urgency right now.  Jimmy Butler and company will relish this opportunity for revenge and to put an end to this Utah streak.  We'll get one of the biggest efforts of the season from the Heat tonight, which should be enough to cover this 6.5-point spread and possibly win outright.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* Pacers/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics, who are coming off three straight road losses to the Pelicans (OT), Mavericks (by 3) and Hawks (by 15).  That loss to the Hawks was on the 2nd of a back-to-back so it is understandable.

Now the Celtics are back home tonight and had yesterday off to rest.  The Celtics were last seen destroying the Hawks by 12, the Nuggets by 13 and the Raptors by 14 in three of their last five home games.  And they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.

The Pacers just aren't very good since trading away Victor Oladipo and getting an injury Caris LeVert back for him.  T.J. Warren being out has also hurt.  The Pacers are just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their four wins came against the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks and Timberwolves.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road underdogs tonight to a superior Celtics team.

The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Boston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Celtics are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after playing two consecutive road games.  Boston is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  Take the Celtics Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Washington Wizards are way undervalued right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset road wins over the Blazers and Lakers, as well as upset home wins over Boston and Denver.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road to the Clippers last time out, which came the night after their upset win over the Lakers in OT, so they were a tired team.

The Denver Nuggets have been overvalued all season as they are 17-14 SU & 13-18 ATS.  They are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Injuries have taken their toll as the Nuggets are without Harris, Millsap, Green, Dozier and Whittington.  They just can't be laying 7.5 points to this surging Wizards team tonight given their current injury situation.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - a tired team playing six or more games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-21 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Denver is 4-12 ATS vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 points per game or more this season.  The Nuggets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after losing by 31 to Phoenix and by 10 to Dallas in its last two games coming in.  But the Grizzlies just got back Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson from injury and recently got Justice Winslow back.  

There was going to be some rust and chemistry issues with all these players returning, but they should be less now.  The Grizzlies have had the last two days off to get some rest and get some practice in together.  Look for them to come out hitting on all cylinders tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six of their last eight with their only losses coming to Utah and Brooklyn.  They are coming off a 19-point blowout win over the Wizards last time out.  But that was a tired Wizards team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime win over the Lakers the night before.  Take the Grizzlies.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls have won four of their last five games coming in.  Their only loss came by 7 as 6.5-point closing road underdogs to the 76ers.  If you bet the Bulls early you won on them as they got steamed and gave the 76ers all they could handle.

I love this favorable spot for the Bulls tonight.  They had Tuesday off while the Minnesota Timberwolves had to play in Milwaukee.  Not only will this be the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, it will also be their 6th game in 9 days and their 3rd straight road game.

This will also be the 15th game in 25 days for the Timberwolves, who simply have to be the most tired team in the NBA right now.  Amazingly, they haven't had more than one day off in a row since January 16th and 17th.  It's no wonder they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight, either.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Timberwolves are 3-14 on the road this season and losing by nearly 10 points per game.  Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Minnesota is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 130 points or more last game.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a hard-fought game in New York last night.  It will also be the 4th road game in 6 day for the Warriors.

Meanwhile, the Pacers have gotten a nice break and it has had nothing to due with COVID.  It was simply the weather in Texas.  All teams would kill for a break right now like the one the Pacers just got.  I think they come back re-energized and they needed the break being short-handed with TJ Warren and Caris LeVert both remaining out and after trading away Victor Oladipo.

The Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on zero rest.  Indiana is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 meetings with Golden State.  The Pacers are 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and averaging 120.5 points per game.

Plays on home favorites (Indiana) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento Kings +7

This is one of my favorite situations of the entire season.  This is a game the Kings will likely win outright due to the situation, and we'll take the points for some added insurance.  This should be one of your largest wagers of the season in the NBA because of it.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nets after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last two wins came against the Lakers and Clippers, so it's automatically a letdown spot.  And they return home from a five-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions they have to deal with.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kings, who are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  So we are getting max value on the Kings now, and the Nets are overvalued after covering six straight.  Plus, the Kings will be the more motivated team as they want revenge form a 125-136 home loss to the Nets on February 15th just over a week ago.

I just see the Nets relaxing here and not showing up at all after feeling a huge sense of accomplishment sweeping that five-game road trip.  Especially since they already beat the Kings once on that trip.  The Nets are still without Kevin Durant and could be without both Green and Luwawu-Cabarrot, who are both listed as questionable.

Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog.  Brooklyn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite.  Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* Wizards/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +7

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a world of hurt right now without Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroeder.  They are just a mediocre team without these two, yet they keep getting priced like the defending champs that won the NBA Finals.  It's a great time to fade the Lakers right now.

The Lakers are just 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with a 17-point loss to Denver, an 11-point loss to Brooklyn and an upset loss to Miami.  Their only win they needed a big finish to pull away from the Timberwolves by 8, and the Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who have been grossly undervalued for over a week now and continue to be here.  The Wizards are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Celtics, Nuggets and Blazers.  They also beat the Rockets by 12 as short favorites.  And they can certainly hang with this version of the Lakers and possibly pull off yet another upset tonight.  

They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Lakers haven't had more than one day off in a row since the beginning of February.  The Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game on the season.  Roll with the Wizards Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Utah Jazz are now overvalued after going 20-2 SU & 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Consider that this is only the 2nd time all season that they have been a favorite of 12.5 points or more tonight.  The last time they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against the Pistons.

The Hornets have been great in the underdog role all season.  And they will want revenge from a 138-121 home loss to the Jazz on February 5th earlier this month.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 8 days here tonight.  And they have gotten a lot healthier due to this break with both Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington back in the lineup now.

This is the ideal letdown spot for the Jazz.  They already beat the Hornets earlier this month.  And they are coming off six straight games against many of the top teams in the NBA in the Celtics, Bucks, Heat, 76ers and Clippers (twice).  They won't be very motivated to face the Hornets tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Charlotte) - off a home win, a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Charlotte is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.  Utah is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games following a loss.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Nets/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers just got Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back in the lineup.  To no surprise, they ended Utah's incredible run with a 116-112 victory on Friday.  And now they are going to put an abrupt halt to Brooklyn's five-game winning streak.

The Nets are overvalued due to this streak that has also seen them cover five in a row.  Amazingly, they have done most of it without Kevin Durant, who is out with an injury.  But they aren't good enough to hang with a team the caliber of the Clippers without Durant.

This will be the 5th straight road game for the Nets, who have probably spent the last couple days partying in Los Angeles after upsetting the Lakers last time out.  But the Lakers were without Anthony Davis and Dennis Shroeder for that game.  Their task gets much tougher here against the Clippers, who are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Clippers also want revenge from a 120-124 road loss at Brooklyn on February 2nd.  Durant scored 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting in that contest.  Plays on favorites (LA Clippers) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more against a team that's off two or more consecutive wins as road underdogs are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

20* Celtics/Pelicans ABC No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

Death, taxes and Pelicans OVERS.  I have made a lot of money backing Pelicans OVERS here of late and I'm not jumping off the train Sunday as once again the oddsmakers have failed to set the number high enough.  They need to set their numbers in the 240's but somehow they haven't been.

As a result, the OVER is 21-3 in Pelicans last 24 games overall.  That includes 8-0 in their last eight games overall with each of their last six games seeing 235 or more combined points without any of them going to overtime.  They have averaged 251 combined points in their last six games, which is nearly 20 points more than this 231.5-point total.

The Boston Celtics will oblige and play up-tempo with the Pelicans just has they have in their last two games in going OVER the total with the Hawks in games that saw 236 and 230 combined points.  The Celtics have to play small ball because they don't have a traditional center, and they are missing their best perimeter defender right now in Marcus Smart.

The Pelicans and Celtics have combined for 231 or more points in three of their last four meetings.  The OVER is 12-1 in Pelicans last 13 home games.  The OVER is 16-1 in Pelicans last 17 games after a combined score of 225 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Grizzlies UNDER 226

Both the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  It will also be the 4th game in 5 days for the Grizzlies.  I think the tired legs of both these teams will help us cash in this UNDER as neither is going to look to push the pace, and shooting will be affected.

Phoenix already prefers to play at a slow tempo with Chris Paul at point guard.  The Suns rank 28th in the NBA in pace at 98.4 possessions per game.  Memphis has JA Morant at point guard, but they still don't push the pace either.  They are in the middle of the pack (14th) in pace at 102.2 possessions per game.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with four of those seeing 223 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 23-7 in Grizzlies last 30 home games.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Grizzlies last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Phoenix is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games following two or more consecutive overs.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +2

The Charlotte Hornets have a huge rest and preparation advantage in this game over the Golden State Warriors and should not be underdogs because of it.  Those advantages will lead them to an outright victory here at home Saturday night.

The Hornets have been off since February 14th due to COVID.  So they have had five days to get ready for this game and are expected to have Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington back in the lineup from injuries.  I expect the Hornets to come back rejuvenated following this nice break.

This is an awful spot for the Warriors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 120-124 loss in Orlando last night.  It will now be the 8th game in 15 days for the Warriors, who haven't had two days off in a row in all of February.  They are also still without Wiseman and Looney, so they don't have much depth.

The Warriors are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on zero days' rest.  The Hornets are 19-8-2 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs.  Charlotte is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 230.5

The OVER is 19-2-1 in Pelicans last 22 games overall.  They have a historic offensive rating during this stretch, and also a historic defensive rating as they have been so poor on that end.  And once again the books have set the number too low here in a Pelicans game.

The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games with all six games seeing 231 or more combined points, which would cover this OVER.  They have averaged 248.5 combined points per game with their opponents during this stretch with none of those games going to overtime.  That's 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 230.5.

The Suns have really picked it up offensively since getting Devin Booker back healthy, which is no surprise.  The OVER is 4-1 in Suns' last five games overall with them combining with their opponents for 231 or more points in four of those.  They have scored 119 points or more four times, and their job gets easier offensively tonight with the injury to New Orleans' best defender in C Steven Adams, who is doubtful with an ankle injury.

New Orleans is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 115 points or more in its previous game.  The OVER is 5-0 in Suns last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Suns last six games playing on two days' rest.  The OVER is 11-1 in Pelicans last 12 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Bucks UNDER 231.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are tired right now and it's hurting them offensively.  They have scored 115 or fewer points in each of their last four games overall, including the 96 they scored against Toronto last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.

Now the Bucks take on an Oklahoma City Thunder team that just recently upset them 114-109 as 11.5-point underdogs on February 14th less than a week ago.  That game saw just 223 combined points, and this total is 231.5 for some reason, which is 3 points higher than the 228.5-point total for that first meeting.  Familiarity favors defense and the UNDER.

The Thunder have been a good UNDER bet here of late, too.  They have combined for 223 or fewer points with their opponents at the end of regulation in five of their last six games overall.  They have averaged just 216.5 points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, which is 15 points less than this 231.5-point total.

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee.  The UNDER is 44-21-1 in Thunder last 66 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Raptors/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -6.5

It's safe to say the Milwaukee Bucks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are riding a season-high four-game losing streak coming in.  And their last loss came to Toronto, the team they will be facing tonight, so they will also be motivated for revenge.  Look for the Bucks to put their best foot forward tonight to get the win and cover because of it.

The Bucks are 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS at home this season and winning by 11.5 points per game.  Milwaukee is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  The Raptors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Both the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after wins last night.  But the situation is a much more favorable one for the Pelicans given the circumstances, and thus they should have no problem covering this 3-point spread at home.

It's a good 'buy low' time for the Pelicans as they had lost three straight road games prior to beating Memphis 144-113 on the road last night.  That blowout win allowed the Pelicans to rest their starters in the 4th quarter and no one player played more than 31 minutes for them.  They are a fully healthy, deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.

It's a good 'sell high' opportunity on the Blazers.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall against a weak schedule.  But all these injuries are going to catch up with them eventually, and I expect that to be tonight.  The Blazers will be without CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Harry Giles and could be without Rodney Hood again.

This is an awful situation for the Blazers, who will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 3rd straight road game and their 5th game in 7 days.  All five starters played more than 30 minutes last night for the Blazers as they were in a war with the Thunder, needing a late surge to pull away for a 115-104 victory.  They clearly won't have much left in the tank tonight.

The Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with wins over Phoenix, Memphis and Houston by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20 points per game.  New Orleans is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Portland, winning those four games by an average of 13.3 points per game.  The Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Pelicans/Grizzlies TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 231.5

The OVER is 18-3 in Pelicans last 21 games overall.  They have combined for 231 or more points in four straight games coming in.  And with a total of 231.5 here, the value is still with the OVER involving a Pelicans team that has come to life offensively but cannot get any stops defensively.

The Grizzlies have been an OVER team as well since getting JA Morant back healthy.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They have combined for 234 or more points with their opponents in seven of their last nine games overall.

The OVER is 10-1 in Pelicans last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 8-0 in Grizzlies last eight games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Memphis is 9-1 OVER vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  New Orleans is 13-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Boston Celtics.  They have gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with upset losses to the Pistons and Wizards.  I have no doubt we will get a huge effort out of the Celtics tonight as they get back on track.

It's also the perfect spot to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three straight coming in, including their upset home win over the Lakers on Sunday.  But Anthony Davis got hurt in that game and the Lakers weren't the same after.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Nuggets tonight off that win over the defending champs.

The injury situation really favors the Celtics here.  While they are basically fully healthy with the exception of Marcus Smart, the Nuggets will be without several key players tonight.  Denver will be without Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Greg Whittington and PJ Dozier.  They could also be without Monte Morris, who is questionable.

Denver is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Boston is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after failing to cover three of its last four coming in.  The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cavs/Warriors OVER 226.5

The Golden State Warriors have been forced to play small ball of late due to injuries to each of their top two centers in James Wiseman and Kevon Looney.  The result has been a lot more high-scoring games, and I think there's value with this OVER 226.5 tonight against the Cavaliers because of it.

Three of Golden State's last six games have seen 251 or more combined points without overtime.  They combined for 263 and 266 points in their two meetings with Dallas recently.  And last time out they combined for 251 points with the Nets.

The Cavaliers are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 232, 228, 239 and 239 points in their last four games.  All four of those would have gone OVER this 226.5-point total.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 243, 234 and 234 points.  The OVER is 6-1 in Warriors lsat seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pacers OVER 226

The Bulls are a good OVER team of late as they have gone OVER the total in their last two games with 245 combined points with the Pelicans and 231 with the Clippers.  They are missing some guys that are key defenders, but they haven't dropped off offensively.

The Pacers are shooting a lot more 3-pointers this year and are definitely an OVER team themselves.  They are coming off a 125-113 win in Atlanta for 238 combined points.  And I think this 226-point total is simply too low tonight.

Indiana beat Chicago 125-106 for 231 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  And keep in mind the Bulls shot just 37.4% from the field in that contest.  The Pacers should get what they want offensively tonight, and the Bulls aren't likely to shoot that poorly again.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Chicago is a perfect 8-0 OVER when revenging a home loss this season.  Indiana is 16-3 OVER in its last 19 games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulls last six games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Kings OVER 229.5

The Sacramento Kings have scored 111 or more points in eight of their last nine games overall.  But they have also allowed 105 or more points in 18 of their last 19 games.  The Kings are built for shootouts, and this 229.5-point total is too low.

The Grizzlies have allowed 114 points or more in six straight games coming in.  The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall as a result.  JA Morant and company will score at will on a Sacramento defense that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 234, 251 and 254 points in the three OVERS.  The OVER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six road games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Kings last nine home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 236

Dallas OVERS are the gifts that keep on giving, and we'll continue to back them until the books set them high enough.  This 236-point total is not high enough Sunday to scare as away when you look at recent performances in Mavericks game.

The OVER is 6-0 in Dallas' last six games overall.  They have combined for 238, 263, 266, 249, 235 and 273 points in those six games with none of them going to overtime.  That's an average of 254 combined points per game, which is still 18 points higher than this 236-point total.

The Mavericks are becoming one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, but they still play little defense.  The Blazers also like to play at a fast pace and play little defense.  The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six games overall with combined scores of 240 or higher in four of their last five.  None of those games went to OT, either.

The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games as underdogs.  The OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 41-20 in Mavericks last 61 home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with combined scores of 265, 258, 232, 240 and 244 points.  None of those went to OT, either.  That's an average of 247.8 combined points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Timberwolves/Raptors OVER 229

The OVER is 8-0 in Raptors last eight games overall.  They have combined for 231 or more points with their opponents in six of those eight games.  And this 229-point total is too low Sunday.

The Timberwolves won't be afraid to go into a shootout with them.  The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last four games with combined scores of 231 or more points in all four of those games.  And Minnesota just got Karl-Anthony Towns back from injury to make them an even more dynamic offensive team.

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 11-0 in Timberwolves last 11 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Toronto is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6 or more points per game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks ML +105

The New York Knicks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came to the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat by a combined 8 points.  And that's a Heat team that is getting healthy and playing better now.

The three wins came on the road over the Bulls by 4, at home over the Blazers by 11 and then last night on the road at Washington by 18.  So while this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back situation, it won't impact the Knicks too badly.  That's because they had two days off prior to beating Washington.  And because it was a blowout, the Knicks only had one player play more than 25 minutes.  So they should still be fresh and this is a deep team anyway.

Now the Knicks take on a Rockets team that is in a world of hurt right now in the injury department.  The Rockets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with the four losses coming by an average of 16.5 points per game.  This skid coincided with losing their best player in Christian Wood to injury.  And now they lost Victor Oladipo and PJ Tucker to injury in their last game.  Wood and Oladipo will both be out, and Tucker didn't practice Friday and is questionable.

The Rockets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss.  Houston is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games playing on one days' rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Knicks on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +8

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lakers off six straight victories.  But only one of those wins came by more than 8 points, and three straight have come in overtime.  I think this is a tired team right now due to those OT games, and there's a good chance they won't get back Anthony Davis tonight.

The Lakers just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They only beat the Pistons by 6 as 14-point favorites in OT, the Thunder by 7 as 9.5-point favorites in OT and the Thunder by 1 as 12-point favorites in OT in their last three games, which have all come at home.

The Grizzlies will give the Lakers a run for their money tonight.  Memphis is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a 16-point home win over Charlotte and will be giving a big effort here against the defending champs.  That's especially the case since they want revenge from two earlier home losses to the Lakers this season, including a 2-point loss in their last meeting.

The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Pelicans/Mavericks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 233.5

I've been riding this Dallas OVER train and I'm not stopping tonight.  The OVER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five games overall with combined scores of 238, 263, 266, 249 and 235 points.  None of those games went to overtime, either.  That's an average of 250.2 combined points per game, so we are still getting roughly 17 points of value on this OVER tonight.

The Mavericks are getting back to being the efficient offense that actually set records in the NBA last year.  They have scored 116 or more points in five straight games.  But they just cannot get stops as they rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Pelicans haven't been much better on that end, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency.  But New Orleans is really tearing it up on offense while scoring 109 or more points in 11 straight games coming in.  The OVER is 16-3-1 in Pelicans last 20 games overall. 

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.  The Pelicans are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games after a combined score of 225 points or more.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* 76ers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia -5.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss during this stretch came when they took the Blazers lightly as 10-point home favorites.  They lost that game 105-121.

Now it's revenge time for the 76ers, who won't be taking them lightly this time around.  That was also the 2nd of a back-to-back for the 76ers, so it was clearly a bad spot for them.  But now they are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will give a big effort tonight.

I just can't trust the Blazers with all they are missing.  CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic remain out for the Blazers.  They just aren't the same team without McCollum, and they are a terrible defensive team.  And that's where the advantage lies with the 76ers, who are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Blazers are 28th.  Only the Wizards and Kings have been worse than the Blazers.

Philadelphia is 11-1 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Portland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the 76ers Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight road losses to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Phoenix and Utah.  In fact, they just played five straight road games, so they will be very happy to be back home tonight.

A big reason for the recent struggles for the Celtics is due to injuries.  But they are finally getting healthy as Jaylen Brown just returned to the lineup and scored 33 points against Utah.  And having both Tatum and Brown on the floor at the same time is when they are at their best.  The only key player they are missing now is Marcus Smart.

I'll gladly fade the Toronto Raptors in this awful spot for them.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout win over Washington last night that saw 252 combined points.  It will also be the 5th road game in 7 days for the Raptors tonight, which is as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  And it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall against very weak competition.

Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS coming in.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.  Boston is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Grizzlies OVER 224

The OVER is 5-1 in Memphis' last six games overall.  They have combined for 227 or more points in five of those six games with their opponents.  They are averaging 233.7 combined points per game over their last six games, so I see some value with the OVER 224 tonight against Charlotte.

The Hornets will definitely oblige in playing a fast-paced game with the Grizzlies with little defense.  The Hornets have scored at least 111 points in six straight games and the OVER is 4-2 in those contests.  They have also allowed 111 or more points in nine of their last 13 games overall.

Charlotte is 22-8 OVER in its last 30 road games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The OVER is 11-2 in Hornets last 13 road games after playing three consecutive home games.  The OVER is 42-21 in Hornets last 63 games with a total of 220 to 229.5 overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last five games as a road underdog.  

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 or higher (Charlotte) - off two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against an opponent that's off a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 22-5 (81.5%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Memphis.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers ML +105

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing three straight coming in against a very tough schedule in the Bucks, Pelicans and Jazz.  Those three teams are playing basically as well as anyone in the NBA tonight.

The Nets aren't on those teams' level right now.  Brooklyn is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  Kevin Durant had to leave the Toronto game that started this stretch due to COVID-19 protocol.  The Nets just aren't very good without him.  They lost 117-123 as 5.5-point home favorites against the Raptors, 108-124 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 76ers, and 111-122 as 5.5-point road favorites to the Pistons.

I was on the Pistons yesterday and I'll gladly fade the Nets again today, who will be without Durant once again.  And now the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days, including their 3rd straight road game.  Meanwhile, the Pacers come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest having last played on Sunday.

The Nets are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing on zero days' rest.  Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Indiana is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Dallas Mavericks are getting back to playing how they were last season when they set some records for NBA offensive efficiency.  But the problem is that they play little to no defense.  That's a big reason why they are just 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep getting back doored because they cannot get stops.  I know this because I have been backing them a lot lately.

But I cashed in the OVER in their last game against the Timberwolves which saw 249 combined points.  And the OVER is now 4-0 in Mavericks last four games overall.  They combined for 263 and 266 points in basically their double-header against the Warriors, and neither of those two games went to overtime.  They also combined for 238 points with the Hawks, which is tonight's opponent.

Both of these teams rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Mavericks are 27th in defensive efficiency.  The Hawks have allowed 118.3 points per game in their last last three games.  And they are missing one of their best defenders in De'Andre Hunter, who likely would have matched up with Doncic.  The Hawks have scored 115 points or more in seven of their last 10 games.  They will be fresh coming in on three days' rest and ready to get up and down the floor with Dallas.  This one has shootout written all over it folks.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 210 or higher (Dallas) - after going OVER the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, in a game involving two teams that win 40% to 49% of their games are 38-12 (76%) since 1996.  The OVER is 6-1 in Mavericks last seven home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

It appears that Kevin Durant is the most important player in Brooklyn and it's not even close.  The Nets have been awful without him of late and he remains out due to COVID-19 protocols.  He likely won't be back with the team until Saturday.

Durant exited the game early against the Raptors two games back and the Nets were upset 117-123 at home as 5.5-point favorites against a Raptors team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Then they went into Philadelphia and got their doors blown off the next night in a 108-124 loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Now the Nets are going on the road and laying 7.5 points here against a Detroit Pistons team that has shown they can hang with and beat some of the best teams in the NBA of late.  In their last two home games, the Pistons upset the Lakers 107-92 as 7-point dogs and upset the 76ers 119-104 as 5-point dogs.  They also took the Lakers to overtime as 14-point dogs in their last game.  And after playing their last four games on the road, they return home here on two days' rest and will be ready to take down the Nets.

Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Mavs OVER 224.5

The OVER is 3-0 in Mavericks last three games overall with combined scores of 238, 263 and 266 points.  They are an OVER bettors' dream with one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, plus one of the most inefficient defenses.  They also play at a quick tempo.

The books have certainly missed their mark with this total tonight against the Timberwolves.  Minnesota plays at the 8th-fasted pace in the NBA.  The Timberwolves also rank just 20th in defensive efficiency this season.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 235 or more points four times.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games as a favorite.  The OVER is 5-1 in Mavericks last six home games.  The OVER is 24-11 in Mavericks last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls had yesterday off following a 118-92 blowout of the Orlando Magic on Saturday.  Look for the more rested Bulls to win and cover tonight at home against a Washington Wizards team that is in a terrible spot.

Indeed, the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following their loss in Charlotte on Sunday.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Wizards, who are having to try and make up some games due to a two-week absence due to COVID.

There's a good chance they rest Russell Westbrook, who is questionable tonight.  And it's a Wizards team that has been playing terrible since returning to action anyway.  Washington is now 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.

Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  The Wizards are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games against Central Division opponents.  Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Hornets UNDER 223.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  Indeed, they rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, just behind the Los Angeles Lakers.  It has been a big key to their success in going 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall.

The Rockets have held 10 straight opponents to 112 points or fewer.  But now the Rockets take a hit on offense as they lose Christian Wood (22 PPG, 10.2 RPG) to an ankle injury.  They will have to rely even more on their defense without Wood, who helps space the floor and gets easy buckets for them.

The Hornets are coming off a 119-97 win over the Washington Wizards yesterday.  Now the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 18 days.  Their tired legs will affect them on offense, and it will assure that they won't be looking to push the tempo.

Houston is 22-6 UNDER in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rockets are 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 games off a home loss.  Houston is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 88 or more shots per game.  The UNDER is 37-18-1 in Rockets last 56 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3

The Phoenix Suns got a healthy Devin Booker back in the lineup and are currently playing their best basketball of the season.  The Suns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are laying just 3 points at home to a Celtics team that has some injury issues right now.

The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart for this contest, two key guys on both ends of the floor, especially defensively.  The Suns should score at will on the Celtics today.  This is also a huge letdown spot for Boston off an upset win over the Clippers last time out.  But that was a Clippers team playing without Paul George and Patrick Beverly.

Plays on home favorites (Phoenix) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two teams that win 51% to 60% of their games are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against underdogs (Boston) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two teams that win 51% to 60% of their games are 90-50 (64.3%) ATS since 1996.  

Phoenix is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Pacers, who have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with two straight losses coming in.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  It has mostly come against a soft schedule with their last three wins coming against the Pistons, Hawks and Hornets.  

You're paying a premium to back the Jazz at this point.  And now they'll be without starting PG Mike Conley (16.5 PPG, 5.8 APG), who has had a career resurgence this season and has been a big key to their success.

The Pacers are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Plays against road favorites (Utah) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 45-22 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 116-147 home loss to the Warriors on Thursday.  Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to host them against Saturday night on ABC.

That was a tough spot for the Mavs playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Warriors had the previous day off.  The Warriors shot 47.3% as a team and made 22 3-pointers on 51.2% shooting.  The Mavs shot just 41.3% as a team.  Neither of those things are going to happen again. Now Dallas is rested and will be the more motivated team here in the rematch.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Dallas) - after losing by 30 or more points ATS in their last three games combined against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Warriors are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win.  Golden State is 25-51-3 ATS in its last 79 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets have been grossly undervalued since trading away James Harden.  They have finally gotten mostly healthy and it's starting to show as the Rockets are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Quietly, the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  That has been a big key to their success, plus John Wall and Victor Oladipo gelling together.  The ankle injury to Christian Wood is a big one, but I still think they have enough here to take down the Spurs.

The injury situation for the Spurs is much more dire right now.  They lost by 17 and 31 points to Memphis before needing a double-digit comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the lowly Timberwolves 111-108, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are without Aldridge (14.1 PPG) and Walker IV (11.2 PPG) right now and could be without Murray (14.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 7.2 APG), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

San Antonio is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Rockets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -1

The Chicago Bulls want revenge from a 119-123 road loss at Orlando last night.  Now the Bulls get their chance at revenge a day later, and they will clearly be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Bulls are the way deeper team right now due to all of the injuries for Orlando, which makes this a better situation for them than it does the Magic.  Orlando remains without Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz and a few others tonight.  It's a big reason why the Magic are just 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

Chicago is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games after a loss by 6 points or less.  Orlando is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  The Magic are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on zero rest.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +3.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 104-105 to the Miami Heat by a single point.  They have upset wins over the Raptors, Pelicans and Celtics during this stretch.

Now the Kings are in the favorable spot here coming in on two days' rest.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets just lost 93-114 to the defending champion Lakers on Thursday.  I always like fading teams after playing the defending champs, win or lose.

While the Kings are as healthy as they have been all season, which is a big reason for their resurgence, the injury situation is a dire one for the Nuggets.  They are without Whittington, Dozier and Harris and could be without both Jamal Murray, who is listed as questionable tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - a hot team covering six or seven of their last eight ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Denver.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Now they are laying 8.5 points on the road to the Charlotte Hornets despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Jazz tonight.

The Hornets are playing well enough to hang with the Jazz.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Bucks as 9.5-point dogs, Heat as 7.5-point dogs and Pacers as 3.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 7 to the 76ers as 7-point dogs as well.  That's a gauntlet of a schedule, which will have them prepared to try and take down a team playing as well as the Jazz right now.

Plays against road favorites (Utah) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog, including 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn -4.5

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to form a nice chemistry now that Durant, Harden and Irving are all healthy and in the lineup.  They have gone 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall and didn't have this trio available at the same time for many of those games.

But the Nets did have all three against the Clippers last time out and beat them at home.  The Clippers are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA right now, so that was an impressive win.  Now they've had the last two days off to rest and get some even better chemistry as they head into this showdown with Toronto.

I think Toronto is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after winning and covering its last two games against the depleted Orlando Magic.  The Raptors had lost three straight prior, and they've been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA at 9-12 SU & 8-13 ATS on the season.  They are playing without a key player in OG Anunoby tonight as well, and his presence as a wing defender will be missed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that scored 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +2

The Houston Rockets are coming off a bad 87-104 loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games.  And they had just beaten the same Thunder team by 30 two days prior.  So I think they took them lightly and paid the price for it.  Now this back-to-back situation is being factored too much into this line with the Rockets coming back as underdogs here against the Grizzlies when they should be the favorites.

But the good thing about that OKC loss was that they didn't play anyone more than 31 minutes because it was a blowout.  And now they should come back pretty fresh and motivated for a win tonight against the Grizzlies.  Plus, PG John Wall sat out that game to rest, so they'll have him back in the lineup tonight.  And this is a deep Rockets team now that everyone is healthy with Wall, Oladipo, Gordon, Cousins, Wood and Tucker leading the way.

It's a good spot to go against Memphis.  The Grizzlies had shockingly won seven straight prior to losing 116-134 at Indiana last time out.  I always like fading teams after an extended winning streak comes to an end.  They were beating up on a lot of bad teams during that winning streak, and now they face a legit squad here in Houston.  The Grizzlies will be without Valanciunas and Allen tonight due to quarantine as well.

Houston is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 road games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after scoring 90 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 points or more are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Warriors/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Mavericks are grossly undervalued right now due to their recent season-high six-game losing streak.  But the Mavericks got over the hump last night with a 122-116 win in Atlanta.  And I'm not concerned about the back-to-back situation here because the Mavericks finally have some depth.

Indeed, Dallas has all hands on deck for the first time all season.  COVID and injuries forced several players to have to miss significant time this season.  But now that everyone is back, it's time to continue 'buying low' on the Mavericks.  I think this situation is being factored into the line too much as the Mavericks are clearly the superior team in this matchup.

The Warriors have held their own this season, but there just isn't much talent on this team outside Stephen Curry.  He has too much on his plate.  That's especially the case now with top draft pick James Wiseman out.  His backup in Kevon Looney is also out tonight, leaving the Warriors very thin in the paint.  I fully expect the Mavericks to take advantage and get to the rim with ease tonight.

Dallas is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Golden State with all four wins coming by 20 points or more and by an average of 32.5 points per game.  The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings dating back further.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Golden State is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 Thursday games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

It's safe to say the Dallas Mavericks will be max motivated Wednesday after losing a season-high six straight games coming in.  They just lost on a 3-pointer right before the buzzer to the Suns last time out.  And I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder here against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

The Mavericks recently got everyone back from quarantine due to COVID.  So it's clearly there were going to be some chemistry issues with this team.  But their chemistry should be much better with each passing game now that everyone is healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Hawks are 6-9 in their last 15 games overall.  They are coming off a deflating loss to the defending champion Lakers, 99-107.  I always like fading teams after they play the defending champs, win or lose.  Atlanta's last five wins came against the Timberwolves (twice), Pistons, Wizards and a depleted Clippers team that was playing without Kawhi and Paul George.  So it's not like they have beaten anyone good lately.

Dallas is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 road games.  The Mavericks are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road favorites.  Dallas is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less.  Atlanta is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering four or five of its last six ATS coming in.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +12.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who were just beaten by 27 points by the Warriors.  That was an obvious letdown spot after upsetting the Lakers 107-92 the game prior.  They also have a recent upset win over the 76ers, so they have proven they can play with anyone.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season.  Blake Griffin (12.5 PPG) and Derrick Rose (14.2 PPG) have both missed significant time, but they are both healthy and ready to go for this game against the Nuggets tonight.  Jerami Grant (23.6 PPG) has thrived in their absence and is quickly becoming a Most Improved Player award favorite.

This is a great time to fade the Utah Jazz.  They just had their 11-game winning streak snapped by Denver last time out.  And I always like going against teams that have long winning streaks end in the game after because there is a hangover effect.  You're also paying a premium right now to back the Jazz because they have not only won 11 of their last 12, they have also gone 11-1 ATS during this stretch.  So it's a 'sell high' spot on them.

The Pistons also want revenge from an 86-96 home loss to the Jazz as part of this winning streak.  Not that the Pistons were 8.5-point dogs in that game and now they are 12.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there is some value here.  And Rose didn't play in that first meeting.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Detroit) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* Celtics/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight losses to the Lakers and Spurs by a combined 5 points.  That followed up two wins over the Cavaliers and Bulls by a combined 54 points.  They have been playing better since getting Jayson Tatum back in the lineup.

Now they face a Warriors team they should handle tonight.  The Warriors will be missing star rookie James Wiseman, who has been doing all the dirty work for them inside.  If the Celtics have a weakness, it's their post play.  But that shouldn't be an issue here against the Warriors as they can go small with them and match up very well.

The Celtics have won three straight meetings with the Warriors by an average of 17.7 points per game.  Boston is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games playing on two days' rest.  Boston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following two consecutive non-conference games.  Take the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Suns/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1

We should see one of the best efforts of the season out of the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in all against playoff contenders.  That includes their 105-111 loss to the Suns on Saturday.  Now they will be out for revenge on the Suns as they get to host them again here Monday.

The Mavericks were missing a lot of players due to quarantine, which is the biggest reason for their recent struggles.  But now they have everyone back for the first time all season.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks as they should improve rapidly in the coming days.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Suns off two straight wins over the Warriors and Mavericks.  The Suns are likely to be without leading scorer Devin Booker tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury.  They are also going to be without fellow guard Cameron Payne.

Phoenix is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Dallas is 55-37 ATS in its last 92 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 50-32 ATS in their last 82 games following an ATS loss.  Rick Carlisle is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

The Houston Rockets have finally gotten healthy and put the James Harden saga behind them.  Now the likes of Oladipo, Wall, Cousins, Wood, Gordon, Tucker and company are starting to play up to their potential.

Indeed, the Rockets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their five wins have come by an average of 12.4 points per game.  They should pick up their sixth straight victory here and get the cover against the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

They Thunder are 2-4 in their last six games overall with their four losses coming by an average of 15.5 points per game.  Their two wins over Portland and Phoenix during this stretch came by a combined 8 points.  Oklahoma City has been a terrible bet at home, going 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in all home games this season.

Plays on road favorites (Houston) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, against a team that is off a home loss by 10 points or more are 62-25 (71.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Roll with the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets -7

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off Sunday when the surging Brooklyn Nets visit the struggling Washington Wizards.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I'm a little surprised the Nets aren't double-digit favorites here.

The Nets are clearly starting to form some chemistry with Harden, Durant and Irving.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, including four straight victories by an average of 10.8 points per game.  It should be more of the same here against the Wizards.

Washington had a two-week break due to COVID.  They have returned from that break and gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games with all four losses coming by 16 points or more.  I don't know how they can be expected to even compete with the Nets tonight.  The fact that the Wizards have lost 10 straight games in which Bradley Beal has scored 40 points or more says all you need to know about the lack of help he has.

Brooklyn is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more.  Washington is just 3-12 SU this season.  The Wizards are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Washington is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss.  Roll with the Nets Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are finally getting healthy with Wall, Oladipo, Wood, Cousins, Tucker, Gordon and company forming a nice chemistry.  They have put the James Harden saga behind them and are finally starting to play up to their potential.

Indeed, the Rockets are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their four wins coming by a combined 48 points.  Now they had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 131-126 upset win over the Bucks last night.  Now the Pelicans are in a massive letdown spot here, and their tired legs won't allow them to beat the Rockets, either.  This is a Pelicans team that is just 3-8 SU in its last 11 games overall.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against an opponent that went under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins both came at home over the Hawks and Knicks by a combined 9 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 12.8 points per game with three of those at home as well.

Now the Blazers hit the road to take on the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season.  The Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and improving rapidly under first-year head coach Billy Donovan.  This team just has too much young talent to be held back for too long, and Donovan is getting the most out of it.

While the Bulls are fully healthy outside of Wendell Carter Jr, the Blazers are struggling right now due to their injuries.  They remain without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, which are two of their best three players.  They will also be without Derrick Jones Jr. and could be without Robert Covington tonight.

The Bulls have had the last four days off and will be rested and ready to go.  They already won in Portland 111-108 back on January 5th in their first meeting this season as 9.5-point dogs back when the Blazers were healthy and Chicago wasn't.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Plays against any team (Portland) - revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3.5

This is a get right spot for the Orlando Magic.  They had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to go tonight.  Look for them to come out motivated for a win after losing nine of their last 11 games overall amidst a lot of injury issues.  But they are finally about as healthy as they have been in a long time with their Big 3 of Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier all playing now.

This is a terrible spot for the Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They pulled out a 109-105 upset win at depleted Miami last night despite being without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverly.  But now this terrible spot will hit the short-handed Clippers hard, and they won't be able to keep up with the rested Magic for four quarters.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off three straight road losses to Sacramento, Portland and Utah.  But now they are finally back home here and come in rested after having the last two days off.

The Knicks also want revenge from a 103-106 road loss at Cleveland on January 15th exactly two weeks ago today.  They were 2-point road favorites in that game, and now they are 1-point home dogs in the rematch, a 3-point adjustment despite flipping home floors in the Knicks' favor.  This line makes no sense and the Knicks should be favored tonight.

The Cavaliers are 30-61-1 ATS in their last 92 games as favorites, including 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as road favorites.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Knicks are 21-10 ATS in their last 21 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Hornets after losing six of their last seven coming in.  They'll be highly motivated for revenge after losing 106-116 at home as 3-point dogs to Indiana on Thursday.  Now they come back as 3.5-point home dogs in the rematch with the Pacers.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Pacers, who have won two in a row and three of their last four coming in.  The Pacers still have some injury issues that are not allowing to live up to their full potential, but they have feasted on a pretty weak schedule here of late.

The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Charlotte is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Indiana.

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - off two straight covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hornets Friday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -4.5

The Houston Rockets are getting healthy and it's starting to show.  John Wall and Victor Oladipo combined for 44 points on Thursday in a 107-88 win over Washington.  Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins are playing well, and now they get Christian Wood back in the lineup tonight.  The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers are banged up right now.  They are missing CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic.  They will also be without Robert Covington tonight.  The Blazers are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing all five games at home.

Their only two wins came against the Hawks by 6 and the Knicks by 3.  They lost tot he Pacers by 24, the Spurs by 21 and were upset by the Thunder.  There is just too much on Damian Lillard's plate right now.  He won't be able to keep the Blazers competitive against a Rockets team that is playing well and is as healthy as they have been all season.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets ML +105

The Charlotte Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They had won four straight before losing five of their last six coming in.  Now they face a banged up Pacers team that they can handle at home tonight.

The Pacers lost Victor Oladipo via trade to the Rockets.  His replacement in Caris LeVert just had kidney surgery.  They were already without scorer T.J. Warren, and now they may be without their most important player in Domantas Sabonis (20.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 5.6 APG) tonight.  He is questionable with a knee injury and the Pacers would be wise to be cautious with him.

These injuries have added up as the Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Hornets are fully healthy right now.  Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home underdog.  The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indiana is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Charlotte.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets are finally starting to get healthy, get some practice time together, and their chemistry is starting to show.  The Rockets are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall with upset road wins over the Pistons and Mavericks (by 25) in their last two games.

Now the Rockets come in rested and ready to go after having the last two games off.  Victor Oladipo could return tonight after missing last game.  But they didn't need him as they beat the Mavericks by 25 behind 33 points from Eric Gordon and 28 from DeMarcus Cousins.  John Wall is back healthy now, and they should get Danuel House back from injury tonight as well.

The Wizards are a mess right now.  They are just 3-9 on the season.  They just returned from a nearly two-week absence and lost 101-121 in San Antonio on Sunday.  They are still playing without Hachimura, Wagner, Smith, Bertans and Bryant among others.  They are so short-handed right now that they've had to sign a couple players in recent weeks.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point dogs to the Rockets given their current situation.

The Wizards are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons will be out for revenge from a 110-114 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday.  Now the Pistons come back as 6.5-point home dogs two days later in the rematch.  They will be the more motivated team here.

The 76ers have a big game on deck against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.  They could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They also may decide to rest Joel Embiid, who had 33 points and 14 rebounds yesterday.  He is questionable for this one.

Conversely, the Pistons didn't have either Derrick Rose or Blake Griffin yesterday and still only lost by 4 points.  They won't have Rose, but they are expected to get Griffin back in the lineup for this one.  The Pistons are the definition of a team as they had seven different players score in double figures yesterday.  Getting Griffin back could make all the difference and have them winning this game outright.

Philadelphia is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games off two or more consecutive wins.  The 76ers are 14-35-2 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic PK

The Orlando Magic want revenge from a 104-107 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets yesterday.  Now they get to play the Hornets again today.  They go from being 2-point favorites yesterday to a pick 'em today.  The value is on the Magic due to motivation and a better line.

The way the Magic lost that game will not be sitting well with them.  They blew a 12-point lead at the start of the 4th quarter and were outscored 33-18 in the final period.  I always like backing the more motivated team in this situation, and I certainly like the fact that the Magic just have to win the game to cover.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played the Clippers in Los Angeles on Friday and only lost 106-120 as 14-point dogs.  Now we only need them to improve by a single point to cover this 13.5-point spread in the rematch.  I think there's a ton of value with the Thunder today as they'll be the more motivated team.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six straight coming in.  They have a big six-game road trip to get ready for coming up after this.  I don't think we will get their best effort today, and it's going to take their best effort to cover this massive spread.

Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Thunder are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Roll with the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Suns UNDER 219

The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns just played last night with the Nuggets winning 130-126 in overtime.  That games was tied 114-114 at the end of regulation for 228 combined points.  I think the UNDER is a great bet tonight with both teams coming back tired.

I doubt either team is able to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting.  The Nuggets shot 51.5% while the Suns shot 50%.  Familiarity favors defense, and tired legs certainly don't help offense.  Plus, the Suns are going to be without leading scorer Devin Booker (22.9 PPG) in the rematch after he sustained a hamstring injury in overtime.  That's a big loss as Booker had 31 points last night.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Suns last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Suns last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.