|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-30-18||Cavs v. Celtics -12||95-128||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12
The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential. They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in.
Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest. Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here.
And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet. Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game. They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.
Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons. The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games. Take the Celtics Friday.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings UNDER 235.5||Top||133-121||Loss||-112||11 h 18 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5
I cashed the Clippers/Suns UNDER 230 last night with ease in a game that saw only 214 combined points. And now I’m back on the UNDER in another Clippers game tonight, this time with a total even higher (235.5) and against the Sacramento Kings.
The Clippers won’t be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. And a big reason I was on the UNDER last night was because Avery Bradley is healthy now, and the Clippers have the best defensive backcourt in the NBA with Bradley and Patrick Beverly. They made life tough on Devin Booker last night, and they will make life tough on De’Aron Fox and the Kings guards tonight as well.
I think this number is inflated because the Kings have gone over the total in six straight, while the Clippers have gone over seven of their last nine. It’s an overreaction and one we’ll take advantage of here just as we did last night.
The Clippers and Kings have combined for 236 or fewer points in 86 straight meetings dating back to 1996. They have combined for 232 or fewer points in 84 of those 86 meetings. The UNDER is 16-5 in Kings last 21 home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games following a double-digit home loss.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (LA Clippers) - who give up 43.5% to 45.5% shooting on the season against a team that gives up 45.5% to 47.5% after five straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or less are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-29-18||Pacers v. Lakers -4.5||96-104||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Lakers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses, including their worst loss of the season in an 85-117 setback at Denver. It was definitely Lebron James’ worst game of the season. James and company will be looking to make amends tonight.
The Pacers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers off back-to-back road wins at Utah and Phoenix. And now they’ll be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Plus, they’ll be without their best player in Victor Oladipo (21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG). I just don’t think they’ll even be competitive tonight against a motivated Lakers squad without Oladipo.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Lakers and Pacers. The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Lakers have won their last two home meetings with the Pacers outright as underdogs by 13 points each, and they didn’t have James or near the talent they have now in those two matchups.
The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their road games. Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Thursday games, while Indiana is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 Thursday games. The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Lakers Thursday.
|11-28-18||Suns v. Clippers UNDER 230||Top||99-115||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Clippers UNDER 230
The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when both Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverly are on the floor. They make life hell on opposing guards, and they’ll do just that against Devin Booker of the Suns tonight.
The Suns have improved defensively this season, but their offense as stalled because nobody other than Booker can make plays consistently. The defensive improvement has come from the additions of Trevor Ariza and DeAndre Ayton. The Suns are combining with their opponents to average just 218.4 points per game this season. That’s well UNDER this 230-point mark.
I think the fact that the Clippers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight coming in has inflated this number. But they didn’t have Bradley for the majority of it, and having him back healthy will improve their defense greatly.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 210, 203 and 218 in the three UNDERS. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. Phoenix is 16-5 UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in five straight games over the last two seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (LA Clippers) - after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 52-22 (70.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves||89-128||Loss||-105||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers. They have won three straight, but those three victories came against the Nets, Bulls and Cavs, three of the worst teams in the entire NBA. They take a big step up in class here against the Spurs tonight.
Few teams have owned a franchise quite like the Spurs have owned the Timberwolves. San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 meetings with Minnesota. That’s why they should not even be underdogs in this game, let alone 4.5-point dogs, which could easily come into play tonight.
The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Minnesota. Roll with the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Nets||101-91||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Jazz have to be highly motivated for a victory right now. They have lost four of their last five coming in. But they get their best player in Donovan Mitchell back from a rib injury, and he is worth more to the point spread for this team than almost any other player in the NBA.
The Nets suffered a big blow when they lost Caris LeVert, their best player, to a foot injury a few weeks ago. They have struggled to find their footing, going just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall. They should be catching more than just 3.5 points here against the Jazz.
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents. Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Nets, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996. Take the Jazz Wednesday.
|11-27-18||Knicks +7.5 v. Pistons||Top||108-115||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks have been undervalued for four straight games now, and I’ve been on them for three of them. I’m on them again tonight catching 7.5 points to the Pistons. Oddsmakers and the betting public just keep failing to realize this team is actually pretty good, and much better than their 7-14 record would suggest.
Four games back, the Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers. Then they went on the road and beat Boston by 8 outright as 14.5-point dogs. Then they upset the Pelicans by 5 as 7.5-point dogs. And last time out they went into Memphis and won outright by 5 as 8-point dogs. And here we are again with the Knicks catching another big number against Detroit tonight.
The Pistons come in overvalued here after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Unlike New York, Detroit is actually getting respect from oddsmakers now. And these are expectations that I don’t think they can live up to tonight here against the Knicks as this one should go right down to the wire with New York possibly pulling off a 4th straight upset.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a road win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|11-26-18||Rockets v. Wizards +2.5||131-135||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Wizards NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +2.5
The Washington Wizards are starting to play up to their potential now that the trade rumors started swirling. They realize they are playing for their jobs now, and it’s finally nice to see them play to their capability.
The Wizards are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat the Clippers 125-118 at home as 1-point favorites and the Pelicans 124-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites. Their only loss came on the road at Toronto during this stretch. And they should not be home dogs to the Rockets here.
Houston is coming off back-to-back upset road losses at Detroit (by 5) as 3.5-point favorites and at Cleveland (by 9) as 6.5-point favorites. They have some serious injury issues right now with Chris Paul (leg) questionable and Gerald Green (ankle) questionable, and they still haven’t gotten a replacement for Carmelo Anthony. They just aren’t playing well at all right now at 9-9 on the season, and they are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.
The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Wizards Monday.
|11-25-18||Knicks +8.5 v. Grizzlies||103-98||Win||100||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5
The New York Knicks are getting zero respect from oddsmakers and I’ll continue to back them until they do. They are catching 8.5 points here against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is simply too much.
The Knicks have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs to the Celtics, and won outright by 5 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans. This team is better than the betting public realizes, and they should give the Grizzlies a run for their money tonight.
No question the Grizzlies have been undervalued up to this point. They have gone 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS on the season. However, now they are being asked to lay a big number here, when usually they are in the role of the underdog. In fact, Memphis hasn’t been more than a 7.5-point favorite in any game this season. So this bar has been set too high here as 8.5-point favorites over the Knicks.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +1||Top||114-124||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +1
This is a play against the New Orleans Pelicans. They are already without one starter in Elfrid Payton, and now they could be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who had to leave last night’s game against the Knicks with a strained quad. Even if Davis plays I still like this pick, but if he doesn’t it would be an added bonus.
The Pelicans are running on fumes right now. They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the entire NBA. And the Pelicans have been awful on the road this season, going 2-8 SU. So they shouldn’t be favored here given the spot and their road struggles.
The spot isn’t nearly as bad for the Wizards. Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but they had two days off prior to last night’s game. That means it will be just their 2nd game in 4 days here. And they are a young, deep enough team to where these back-to-backs don’t affect them as much.
The Wizards have owned the Pelicans, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings as well. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season. The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Bet the Wizards Saturday.
|11-24-18||Nuggets +6 v. Thunder||105-98||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to get too much respect from the books after going 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall. I faded them last night with success on the Hornets +6, and I’ll fade them again here in this tough spot as the Thunder will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Nuggets are in the same situation, but I worry less about them, especially after they blew out Orlando 112-87 last night so their starters didn’t have to play too many minutes. Plus, the Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they are suited for these back-to-back situations as well as anyone. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.
The Nuggets have had the THunder’s number, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point as 5-point road dogs in a 95-94 loss. And here they are catching 6 points, which could certainly come into play tonight even if they don’t win straight up.
The Nuggets are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 division games, while the Thunder are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 division games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-23-18||Hornets +6 v. Thunder||Top||104-109||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6
The Oklahoma City Thunder are primed for a letdown here. They went into Thanksgiving Break with a huge National TV win over Golden State 123-95 on Wednesday. After beating the defending champs, they’ll have a very hard time getting up to play the Charlotte Hornets tonight.
The Hornets have improved as much as almost any team in the NBA this season. They are off to a 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS start this season while outscoring their opponents by 5.4 points per game. The improvements have come on offense, where they are scoring 115.7 points per game. And Kemba Walker is having an MVP-caliber season thus far to lead the way, plus all of their young talent is starting to come into their own.
Plays on road underdogs (Charlotte) - off three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|11-23-18||Pelicans v. Knicks +7.5||109-114||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks are way undervalued right now. They got off to a fast start this season, became overvalued, but then have lost six of their last seven coming in. And they’ve been catching too many points here of late, including tonight at home against the Pelicans.
The Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, and won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs at Boston in their last two games. And now they are catching 7 points here at home against a Pelicans team that is simply getting too much love right now.
Indeed, the Pelicans have won six of their last eight coming in, while also covering five of their last seven against the spread. And when you consider the Pelicans are only 2-7 SU on the road this season, there’s no way they should be favored by 7 points on the highway here against the Knicks.
New York wants revenge from a 124-129 road loss at New Orleans as 11-point dogs on November 16th just a week ago today. That also sets the Knicks up for a very profitable system in support of them.
Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Friday.
|11-23-18||Wizards +10 v. Raptors||107-125||Loss||-109||20 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards +10
The Washington Wizards have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA thus far. And there is now trade talk where management says nobody is off limits. That negative media attention certainly has the Wizards undervalued right now.
The Wizards showed a ton of heart last time out after the rumors, coming back from 19 points down at halftime to beat the Clippers 125-118. If they were going to quit, it would have shown in that game. And now I think they can rally around that comeback victory and start playing up to their potential moving forward.
The Raptors are starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers after their 15-4 start to the season. And I think this is a terrible spot for them. They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I always like fading teams on their first game back from an extended trip. Plus, they’ll be playing their 3rd game in four days here while dealing with family obligations at home Thursday. The Wizards come in on two days’ rest.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Washington) - after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|11-21-18||Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5||104-103||Loss||-107||9 h 22 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after going just 2-6 in their last eight games overall. They are 2-5 in their last seven games, and all five losses came on the road. They actually beat Houston 96-89 as 3.5-point dogs and Golden State 104-92 as 3-point favorites in their two home games during this stretch. They are clearly undervalued right now.
Memphis is overvalued after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Now they’re only catching 2.5 points on the road to the Spurs here. That’s not enough when you consider the Spurs are 47-8 SU in their last 55 home meetings with the Grizzlies, including 7-0 in the last seven in the Alamo City.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-21-18||Pacers v. Hornets -3||Top||109-127||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -3
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS. Their improvement has come on offense, where they are scoring 115.0 points per game and outscoring the opposition by 4.6 points per game on the season. Kemba Walker is playing at an MVP level, scoring a combined 103 points in the last two games.
The Pacers come in overvalued off their 121-94 win over Utah, their third straight win. But all three wins came at home, and the Pacers haven’t played nearly as well on the road. Plus, they could be without their two most talented players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who are both listed as questionable tonight.
Plays on favorites (Charlotte) - after a home games here both teams scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Pacers. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|11-20-18||Blazers v. Knicks +8||118-114||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8
This is certainly a ‘buy low’ situation on the New York Knicks. They have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. So now they are catching a whopping 8 points at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, and I simply believe it’s too much tonight.
Four of those five losses came on the road, and the other was the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at home to Orlando. So the schedule is the biggest reason for their recent struggles. I look for the Knicks to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight in a much better situation here with yesterday off.
The Blazers are in a much more difficult situation here. They will be playing their fourth straight road game. They lost the first two games on this trip by 9 to the Lakers and by 16 to the Timberwolves before beating the hapless Wizards last time out.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|11-19-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Pacers||94-121||Loss||-105||5 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Utah Jazz are fully healthy now and playing some great basketball. They have won four of their last six coming in, including an impressive 98-86 win at Boston as 4-point dogs last time out. They only patch of this season they struggled was when they were playing without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell.
Speaking of leading scorers, the Indiana Pacers will be without their tonight in Victor Oladipo. He is the one player they cannot afford to lose as he averages 21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.7 APG. He is the heart and soul of this team. Without him they are a below-average squad that the Jazz should handle.
The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|11-18-18||Lakers v. Heat -1||113-97||Loss||-103||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1
The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers. They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers. Bet the Heat Sunday.
|11-17-18||Kings +12.5 v. Rockets||112-132||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +12.5
The Houston Rockets come into this game overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are also in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday, a game they clearly had circled.
The Rockets won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight. The Kings played yesterday in a 104-112 loss to the Grizzlies, but this back-to-back situation isn’t so bad for them.
That’s because they had three days off prior to that Memphis game. This is a very young, deep team that will have plenty of energy left in the tank to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight.
The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. The Kings are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins. Roll with the Kings Saturday.
|11-17-18||Lakers -4 v. Magic||117-130||Loss||-105||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4
The Lakers are finally starting to play up to their potential. They have gone 4-0 in their last four games overall. They are only laying 4 points here to the Orlando Magic, and I think we’re getting a discount today.
The Lakers are well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The Lakers are coming off a 126-117 win over Portland on Wednesday. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.
The Magic are coming off an upset win over the 76ers. The Magic are just 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a win. Orlando is also just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games when paying on two days’ rest. Take the Lakers Saturday.
|11-17-18||76ers v. Hornets -2||Top||122-119||Loss||-110||7 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2
The Charlotte Hornets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their worst loss of the season, an 89-113 setback at Cleveland as 8.5-point favorites. They’ve had three days off since that loss on Tuesday to get ready for this game tonight.
Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here. They won a hard-fought battle with the Jazz 113-107 last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hornets. This is a dream spot for Charlotte.
Adding fuel to the fire for the Hornets is the fact that they’ve already lost their first two meetings with the 76ers by a combined 3 points. So they’ll be revenge-minded here.
Charlotte is a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons. The Hornets are winning by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Hornets Saturday.
|11-16-18||Kings +7 v. Grizzlies||104-112||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7
Both the Sacramento Kings (8-6) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) have been two of the surprise teams in the NBA this season. The Grizzlies are winning with defense, while the Kings are winning with offense.
The Kings are averaging 114.5 points per game this season, way up from last year, and it’s largely due to the improvement of point guard De’Aron Fox in his second season. The Kings are shooting 48.2% as a team as they have gotten out in transition more and gotten easier buckets.
The Kings come in rested as they have had the last three days off, so they’ll be ready to go tonight. And Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.
I think this is a precarious spot for the Grizzlies. They just pulled off a huge 116-113 upset at Milwaukee on Wednesday as 9.5-point underdogs. They could be in line for a letdown here against the Kings, who won 97-92 in their first meeting this season back on October 24th.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record and 65-30 (68.4%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Kings Friday.
|11-16-18||Raptors v. Celtics -1.5||116-123||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5
The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to their lackluster 8-6 start that has seen them go 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They should be bigger than 1.5-point home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.
The Celtics came through with one of their best performances of the season last time out. They crushed the Bulls 111-82 at home. And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They’ll be motivated to prove to the Raptors that they are the best team in the East.
The Raptors opened 12-1 this season. But they were overvalued at that point, and have since lost two straight at home to the Pelicans by 16 and the Pistons by 2. They were nearly double-digit favorites in both those games. They have some injury concerns right now that aren’t helping, either.
The Celtics are 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons. Boston is 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two years. The Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Celtics Friday.
|11-15-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1.5||86-107||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Houston -1.5
The Houston Rockets have had this game circled on their calendars ever since losing in Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night at home to get revenge on the Warriors.
The Rockets may have won that series if Chris Paul didn’t miss the last two games with an injury, both resulting in Houston losses. And the Rockets are hitting their stride right now. They have won their last two games over the Pacers by 12 and the Nuggets by 10 and they are heating up from the field. It’s probably no coincidence that they have started to play well since deciding to part ways with Carmelo Anthony.
Conversely, the Warriors are faltering right now, and there’s tension in the locker room after Draymond Green got into it with Kevin Durant a few nights back. They lost in that game in overtime to the Clippers, and then were sluggish on the second of a back-to-back in a 7-point win over the lowly Hawks. Stephen Curry remains out and is questionable to return tonight. And the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Rockets Thursday.
|11-14-18||Blazers v. Lakers -2.5||Top||117-126||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are finally starting to gel as a team. They have reeled off three straight victories coming into this game with the Portland Trail Blazers. And now they’ve had two days off since last playing on Sunday, so they’ll be rested and ready to go at home tonight.
The Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after opening the season 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS. They’ve been one of the best covering teams in the league. But that is largely due to a home-heavy schedule, and they have handled their business at home this year.
In fact, the Blazers have played nine of their first 13 games at home. They have only played four times on the road. Two of those home games were with the Lakers. They won the first meeting but lost the second. And now the Lakers get their shot at the Blazers at home this time around.
The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.
|11-14-18||Knicks +9.5 v. Thunder||103-128||Loss||-102||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9.5
This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks and ‘sell high’ on the Thunder tonight. The Thunder are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in.
But Russell Westbrook was a big part of that streak. And now Westbrook is out with an ankle injury. The Thunder have been able to win three of four without him, but two of those wins were against the Suns and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They’ll be fortunate to win this game, let alone win it by double-digits, which is what it’s going to take to cover this massive 9.5-point spread.
We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost 89-115 at home to the Magic on Sunday, but now will be rested and ready to go with two days off in between games. And that loss is forgivable when you consider they were coming off a tough loss in Toronto the night before and playing the second of a back-to-back. They’ll be looking to make amends tonight.
Oklahoma City is 8-23 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the past two seasons. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Thunder are 30-45 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite. Roll with the Knicks Wednesday.
|11-14-18||Heat -1.5 v. Nets||120-107||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5
The Brooklyn Nets were one of my favorite teams to back coming into the season and through the early part of the season. But they just lost their best player in Caris LeVert to a dislocated foot, and that’s a huge blow to the team as he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He was their best playmaker and leading scorer.
I think the Miami Heat will be playing with an edge tonight. They have lost three straight coming in, and they’ll be looking to take out hotter frustration on the Nets tonight. They are as healthy as they’ve been all season and should put forth a big effort here.
This is the Nets’ first home game back from a long four-game road trip. I always like fading teams on their first home game back from a long trip because there are distractions at home they have to deal with. And the Nets are certainly still feeling the loss of LeVert as the life has been sucked out of the franchise now. It could linger for a few games before they recover.
The Heat are 11-2 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Heat are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games. Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 trips to Brooklyn. Bet the Heat Wednesday.
|11-14-18||76ers v. Magic +6.5||106-111||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight after the trade for Jimmy Butler. It’s going to take some time for Butler to gel with his new team, and the 76ers will take a step back before they take a step forward with him, especially with all of these expectations from oddsmakers now.
The Magic have quietly gone 4-2 in their last six games overall. They won 117-110 in San Antonio and 115-89 in New York, while also beating the Wizards 117-108 and the Cavs 102-100 at home. They are fully healthy and playing some solid basketball right now.
The Magic are more than capable of beating the 76ers, let alone staying within 6.5 points here. They showed that in their first meeting with the 76ers in a 115-116 road loss as 12.5-point underdogs. They’ll now be out revenge from that defeat back on October 20th. The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Plays on home teams (Orland) - after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus less free throws than their opponent against an opponent that is off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|11-13-18||Hawks +13 v. Warriors||103-110||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +13
The Golden State Warriors are just not the same team without Steph Curry. They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games without him with their only win coming at home against the Brooklyn Nets. And they did themselves no favors by erasing a huge deficit last night to the Clippers.
Indeed, the Warriors rallied from double-digits down to force overtime against the Clippers last night, only to lose 116-121 in the extra session. And now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, so they won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.
The Hawks went on the road and showed they could play with a good team from the Western Conference last time out, only losing 106-107 to the Lakers as 11-point underdogs. And now they had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to take their shot at the short-handed, tired defending champs. I know we’ll get a big effort from the Hawks tonight, but I question what kind of effort we’ll get from the Warriors without Curry.
The Hawks have played the Warriors very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less. The Hawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games coming in. The Warriors are 1-12 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons. Take the Hawks Tuesday.
|11-12-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Grizzlies||96-88||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Utah Jazz are out for revenge tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have already lost twice at home to the Grizzlies this season, but one of those was without Donovan Mitchell. It’s clear that the Jazz are going to want this game a lot more than Memphis will tonight.
All has been good with the Grizzlies since Mitchell returned from injury. They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS since his return, beating the Mavs by 15 at home and the Celtics by 8 at home. And they should be able to go on the road in this spot now that they are fully healthy and beat the Grizzlies by 4-plus points.
The Grizzlies are the ones with the injury problems right now. JayMychal Green and Chandler Parsons have been out for a while, but now Omri Casspi and Dillon Brooks are also out. They are short-handed, which will make it tough for them to compete with the Jazz, who are one of the best teams in the NBA att full strength.
Memphis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games off two consecutive home games. Utah is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Jazz are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - revenge a loss where opponent score 100 or more points against opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Jazz Monday.
|11-12-18||Suns +9 v. Thunder||Top||101-118||Loss||-105||7 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9
The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as 9-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Suns after losing 10 of their last 11 games coming in. The betting public wants nothing to do with them.
It’s also the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But almost all of that run came with Russell Westbrook healthy and leading this team. That’s not the case any longer.
The Thunder were able to win their first two games without Westbrook, beating the Cavs on the road and the Rockets at home. But it caught up with them last time out in a 96-111 road loss at Dallas. Teams can usually play well for one or two games without their stars, but it doesn’t last. The Thunder are just an average to below average team in this league without Westbrook.
The Thunder are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Phoenix is 78-50 ATS in its last 128 games off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. The Thunder are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after having won two of their last three coming in. Bet the Suns Monday.
|11-12-18||76ers v. Heat -2||124-114||Loss||-105||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a win Monday night. They have lost two straight to Indiana and Washington coming in. And they also want revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year.
But these aren’t the same 76ers. They traded away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler. And Butler isn’t even going to play tonight. So they are short-handed tonight, and I don’t think they can beat the Heat in their current state.
Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games after two straight games committing 7-plus turnovers more than their opponents. The 76ers are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.9 points per game in the process.
Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Heat are 9-0 ATS vs. good foul drawing teams who shoot 27 or more free throws per game over the last three years. The 76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. Take the Heat Monday.
|11-11-18||Magic v. Knicks -1.5||115-89||Loss||-107||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5
The Knicks are better than their 4-9 record, while the Magic are worse than their 5-7 record thus far. I think we are getting value on the Knicks here as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Magic because of the perception that the Magic or better. But that’s not the case.
Let’s look at point differential. The Magic are getting outscored by 7.1 points per game this season, while the Knicks are only getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. And the Magic have played a home-heavy schedule with eight of their first 12 games at home. The Knicks have played seven of their 13 on the highway.
The Magic are 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last three seasons. The Knicks are 18-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Magic are 18-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|11-10-18||Nets +7.5 v. Warriors||100-116||Loss||-106||10 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5
The Brooklyn Nets have reeled off three straight impressive victories and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve. They won 122-97 at home over the 76ers as 4-point dogs, 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point favorites, and 112-110 at Denver as 8.5-point dogs.
I realize this is the second of a back-to-back for the Nets, but they had two days off prior to that Denver game, so they won’t be as tired as most teams would. Plus, the Nets are arguably the deepest team in the league, so they are affected much less by these back-to-backs than most teams.
The Warriors are in a worse situation. They are going to be playing without two of the Big Four today. Stephen Curry will miss significant time after leaving last game with a groin strain. And Draymond Green is also out with a foot injury. Not to mention, both Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins are out. The Warriors don’t even have a point guard right now.
The Nets have played the Warriors very tough of late, going 4-0 ATS in their four meetings over the past few seasons, including their 114-120 home loss at 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Golden State. I like the fact that they are out for revenge here as well.
The Nets are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games, including 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Nets Saturday.
|11-10-18||76ers v. Grizzlies -1.5||Top||106-112||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here. And they had to go to overtime to beat the Hornets 133-132 at home last night. It’s safe to say they won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies here.
The Grizzlies are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. It’s amazing what they are capable of when Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both healthy and on the floor at the same time. The Grizzlies are 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season.
The Grizzlies have been at their best at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points per game on average. They have some of the best home fans in the NBA. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points per game.
The Grizzlies have owned this series as well, going 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers. Enough said. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|11-10-18||Bucks v. Clippers +3.5||126-128||Win||100||5 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers. They are coming off a huge 134-111 road victory at Golden State. I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors, especially after they beat the Warriors. They always seem to have a letdown the next game.
And it’s certainly worth noting those weren’t the real Warriors. Stephen Curry got injured early and was forced to leave the game. And they were already playing without Draymond Green. Without those two, the Warriors are just an average team in this league.
The Clippers are a team that has impressed me thus far. They are 6-5 SU & 6-5 ATS this season and have been flying under the radar. They are outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game on the season, and Doc Rivers has gotten the most out of this team. They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here so should be sitting on a big effort with the Bucks coming to town.
The Clippers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game. The Bucks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Milwaukee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. The Clippers won both meetings last season with the Bucks. Take the Clippers Saturday.
|11-09-18||Nets +10 v. Nuggets||Top||112-110||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +10
The Brooklyn Nets just don’t get the respect they deserve in the betting markets. They are in the third year of head coach Kenny Atkinson, and they’ve improved every season. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they should get even deeper now with the healthy return of DeMarre Carroll from an ankle injury tonight. He hasn’t played yet this season.
The Nets are off to a 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS start this season. Only two of those six losses came by double-digits, so they have basically been competitive in every game. And given how well they’ve played in their last two games, there’s no way they should be double-digit dogs tonight. They beat Philadelphia 122-97 as 4-point home dogs and won 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point road favorites. And now they’ve had two days’ rest since that win over the Suns to get ready for the Nuggets.
Denver is clearly overvalued now after a 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS start to the season. The Nuggets are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public due to this start. This is only the third time they will be a double-digit favorite this season, and the other two were against the Suns and Kings at home. They could be looking ahead to huge showdowns with the Bucks and Rockets up next.
The Nets are 27-14 ATS as road underdogs over the last two seasons. Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years. The Nets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons. Brooklyn is 10-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years. Take the Nets Friday.
|11-08-18||Rockets -3.5 v. Thunder||Top||80-98||Loss||-110||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Houston -3.5
It’s no surprise the Houston Rockets have been playing winning basketball since James Harden returned to the lineup. Having a healthy Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella in the lineup has meant everything to this team. They’ve been dominant with all three healthy, but just average with one or more of them missing.
The Rockets have reeled off three straight wins, the last two since Harden returned, and he should be even more healthy now. That’s especially the case since the Rockets have had two days’ rest coming into this game tonight having last played on Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in trouble. They just lost Russell Westbrook to an ankle injury. They were able to get by the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers last night without him, but now they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they will be tired. And they’re taking a huge step up in class here. They have no chance of beating the Rockets without Westbrook.
Houston is 18-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 4-1 SU on the road this season, playing their best basketball away from home. Plus, Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Oklahoma City. Take the Rockets Thursday.
|11-07-18||Wolves v. Lakers -5.5||Top||110-114||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
20* T’Wolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Lakers are rested and ready to go. They had two days off since a home loss to Toronto on Sunday and will certainly be looking to put their best foot forward tonight. That’s especially the case with revenge in mind following a 120-124 loss in Minnesota on October 29th just over a week ago.
The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and played the Clippers Monday in Los Angeles. That means they have been staying in Los Angeles, which is always a huge distraction for any team. It’s likely they went out and partied the last two nights if given the chance.
The Timberwolves are just a team I do not trust. They are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS this season, including 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 12.2 points per game on the highway. The Jimmy Butler trade rumors certainly have been a distraction for this team, and Butler continues to rest even though he probably doesn’t need it. And they are missing starting PG Jeff Teague and don’t have an ample replacement.
The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games dating back to last season. The Lakers will get their revenge tonight from that loss just over a week ago. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Lakers Wednesday.
|11-07-18||Raptors v. Kings +8||114-105||Loss||-104||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +8
The love for the Toronto Raptors in the betting markets is getting out of hand. They have become a big public team now with a 10-1 record on the season. But with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward.
The Raptors are coming off back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Jazz on the road. They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. It’s uncertain if Kawhi Leonard will return to the lineup tonight, and they are missing key reserve Norman Powell as well. I don’t think they’ll be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Lakers and Jazz, and this is clearly a letdown spot for them.
Sacramento, on the other hand, is getting no respect for its 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season. The Kings have been one of the biggest surprises in the league to this point, yet nobody is talking about them. That’s why were are getting some extra value here with the Kings as 8-point home dogs to the Raptors tonight. Plus, this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for the Kings, so they’re rested and ready to go.
Toronto is 44-72 ATS in its last 116 games following four or more consecutive wins. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. The Raptors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 trips to Sacramento. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.
|11-07-18||Mavs +9.5 v. Jazz||102-117||Loss||-105||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +9.5
I was on the Mavericks last night and they came through with a 119-100 home victory over the Washington Wizards. Part of the reason I was on them was because they had three days’ rest coming in. So that will soften the blow on this back-to-back situation as they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They should have plenty left in the tank for the Utah Jazz tonight.
It’s shocking to see the Jazz as 9.5-point favorites tonight with the way they are playing. This line is an overreaction from the news that Donovan Mitchell is expected to return from injury. He won’t be 100%, and he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction. The Jazz are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digit losses and three upset losses as favorites.
The Mavs have gone on the road and played great in this role of road underdog already this season. They only lost by 9 at Toronto as 11-point dogs, by 5 in overtime at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and by 1 at the Lakers as 7.5-point dogs. Those are their last three road games coming in, and those are results that make be believe they are the right side here as 9.5-point dogs to the Jazz.
Dallas is 27-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Mavs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Utah is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.
|11-07-18||Knicks -2 v. Hawks||112-107||Win||100||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2
The New York Knicks have impressed me with how competitive they’ve been in spite of their 3-8 record. They are the better team in this matchup despite having a similar record to the Hawks (3-7). And I’ll gladly lay only two points with them on the road here tonight.
Four of New York’s eight losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 2 points or fewer. They are only getting outscored by 3.3 points per game on the season, which you would expect better than a 3-8 record with that margin. Tim Hardaway has taken his game to the next level this season, and the Knicks are getting big contributions from Enes Kanter, Damyean Dotson, Alonzo Trier and Mario Hezonja. And prized rookie Kevin Knox is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.
The Hawks are worse than their 3-7 record would even indicate. They are getting outscored by 9.6 points per game on the season. They are in complete rebuilding mode. And this is a tough spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Charlotte last night.
The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest. Atlanta is 4-16 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The Knicks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 trips to Atlanta. Take the Knicks Wednesday.
|11-06-18||Wizards v. Mavs +1.5||100-119||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks +1.5
Both the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards have opened 2-7 this season. However, I’ve been a lot more impressed with the Mavericks than the Wizards to this point, and I don’t think they should be home dogs because of it.
The Mavericks are getting outscored by 6.0 points per game while the Wizards are getting outscored by 9.4 points per game on the season. The Wizards don’t play any defense, allowing opponents to score 120.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting. The Mavericks have been solid offensively at 110.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting.
The Wizards are just 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming by a single point. They are getting outscored by 13.8 points per game on the road this year. The Mavericks are 2-2 at home, scoring 116.2 points per game and only getting outscored by 2.8 points per game.
The Mavericks simply own the Wizards. Dallas is 15-1 SU in its last 16 meetings with Washington. Yet the Mavericks are the underdogs in this matchup. They won by 14 on the road and by 23 at home in their two meetings last season. Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday.
|11-05-18||Celtics v. Nuggets OVER 207.5||107-115||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Nuggets OVER 207.5
This is a very low total tonight. I think there’s value with the OVER between the Celtics and Nuggets in this matchup. I think the fact that the Nuggets have gone under the total in four straight is keeping this total lower than it should be.
A quick look at the series history between these teams and it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER. In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Celtics have seen 214 or more combined points. They’ve averaged 224.5 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 17 points more than this 207.5-point total.
The OVER is 15-4 in Nuggets last 19 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last five vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 49-29 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-05-18||Pelicans v. Thunder -3.5||116-122||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have really turned the corner since their 0-4 start. They have won four straight since, including a 134-111 win at Washington last time out on Friday. That means they’ve had two days’ rest over the weekend to get ready to face the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.
The Pelicans have gone the other direction. They got out to a fast start at 4-0, but have since lost five straight. And they’ve rarely been competitive in these five losses, losing four times by double-digits. They are a banged-up team and a tired team right now as this will be their 5th straight road game, and their 7th game in 11 days.
The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with New Orleans. The Pelicans are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Take the Thunder Monday.
|11-04-18||Kings +10 v. Bucks||109-144||Loss||-110||3 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +10
The Sacramento Kings are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They are getting treated like they are the Kings from year’s past here catching double-digits to the Milwaukee Bucks today. We’ll take advantage and back them until they are priced correctly.
The Kings are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their nine games this season. They have won and covered five straight, which includes three straight road victories by 10, 8 and 31 points. They have a bunch of young talent that they’ve stockpiled in the past few drafts and it’s finally starting to pay off for this franchise.
The Bucks are in a precarious spot here. They opened the season 7-0 and then lost their first game last time out to the Celtics, who also beat them in the playoffs last year. I think they will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect here off that huge game and off their first loss of the season. I always like fading teams who are coming off a loss following a long winning streak because it’s like the wind is lifted from underneath their sails.
Milwaukee is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons. The Bucks are only winning by 1.9 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Kings Sunday.
|11-03-18||Jazz v. Nuggets -4||88-103||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets -4
The Denver Nuggets are off to a 7-1 start this season. They are on a mission early to give themselves a cushion after missing out on the playoffs with an overtime loss to the Timberwolves in the final game of the regular season last year.
The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot here Saturday. They are coming off a 100-110 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night. So they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight.
Making matters worse for the Jazz is the injury situation. Donovan Mitchell sat out last night with a hamstring injury, and Alec Burks was out with a hand injury. It’s unlikely that they get Mitchell back tonight as he’s listed as questionable. And they just aren’t the same team without him. If he does play he’ll be much less than 100%.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Nuggets have won four straight home meetings with the Jazz by 8, 24, 10 and 14 points, respectively. That’s an average win by 14 points per game. Take the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-03-18||Celtics -3 v. Pacers||101-102||Loss||-103||9 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -3
The Boston Celtics have reeled off four straight wins while covering the spread in three of them. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight so they’ll be fresh and ready to go. Look for a big effort from them here against the Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers are far from fresh. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They were fortunate to win their last two games, pulling away late to beat the Knicks 107-101, and barely escaping with a 107-105 win as 7-point favorites in Chicago last night. They’ll get it handed to them here by the Celtics.
Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late. The road team is actually 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana.
The Celtics are 17-4 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Boston is 42-17 ATS in its last 59 Saturday games. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|11-02-18||Knicks v. Mavs -6||118-106||Loss||-110||7 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -6
The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the New York Knicks. The Mavericks have to feel snake bitten because they’ve lost five straight coming in, but all five were by dsingle-digits, and four of them were on the road.
The Mavericks took the Spurs to overtime and lost on a last-second free throw by Lebron James on the road at the Lakers in their last two games. But the Mavs are 2-1 at home this season and will be glad to be back at home against arguably the worst team they’ve faced yet this season in the Knicks.
The Knicks are just 2-6 on the season as well. Their two wins have come against the Hawks and Nets, and both were at home. Those are two of the worst teams in the NBA. I don’t give them much of a chance of even being competitive against a motivated Mavericks team here on the road tonight.
Dallas has won 17 of its last 21 home meetings with New York. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. Western Conference opponents. New York is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Mavericks Friday.
|11-02-18||Thunder v. Wizards -2.5||Top||134-111||Loss||-104||7 h 2 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Wizards ESPN No-Brainer on Washington -2.5
The Washington Wizards will be highly motivated for a victory Friday night. They sit at just 1-6 on the season and in need of a victory. They have played five of their first seven games on the road, and their two home games resulted in losses by a combined 5 points to Toronto and Miami.
But the Wizards are in a great situational spot here. They come in on two days’ rest having last played in Memphis on Tuesday. So they will be fresh and ready to go. I think we get the best effort of the season from the Wizards tonight because of it.
Conversely, this is an awful spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They used a lot of energy erasing a double-digit deficit in the second half last night to beat the Bobcats 111-107. They won’t have much left in the tank come the second half in this one.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Wizards are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with the Thunder. The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Plays on any team (Washington) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 70-29 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Wizards Friday.
|11-01-18||Pelicans v. Blazers -4||119-132||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4
I love the situation for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for revenge on the Pelicans after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year. Look for them to step up in a big way tonight and get a win and cover.
They catch the Pelicans in a great spot, too. New Orleans will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. And they are coming off a loss to the Warriors last night, so they won’t be nearly as motivated to play the Pelicans, a team they swept in the playoffs.
It’s almost always a good move to fade a team after they play the defending champs. But the Pelicans also have a ton of injury concerns right now with Elfrid Payton and Darius Miller questionable after sitting out last night, and Anthony Davis playing through injury last night. It’s no surprise that the Pelicans have lost three straight coming in by a combined 36 points due to their injury situation.
The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday games. Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Blazers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 home games overall. Portland is 41-19-4 ATS in its last 64 games following a win. Roll with the Blazers Thursday.
|10-31-18||Pistons v. Nets -2||Top||119-120||Loss||-115||8 h 41 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2
The Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after a hard-fought 105-108 loss in Boston last night. I expect a poor showing from them tonight in Brooklyn against a Nets team that had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory.
The Nets have lost three straight to fall to 2-5 this season. But they are better than their record. Three of their losses came by 2, 3 and 6 points at New Orleans, at Detroit and vs. Golden State, respectively. So they also want revenge from their 100-103 loss at Detroit as 6-point dogs in the opener.
The Pistons are overrated due to their 4-2 start this season. But their four wins came against the Nets, Bulls, 76ers, and Cavs with three of those at home. They have lost to the best team the’ve faced in the Celtics twice for their two defeats. And this Brooklyn team has already made me a lot of money and will continue to do so this season because they are way underrated.
The Pistons are 5-19 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Brooklyn is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight home meetings with the Pistons. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|10-30-18||Clippers v. Thunder -1.5||Top||110-128||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder should be highly motivated for a win tonight after a 1-4 start to the season. Getting them as only 2-point home favorites over the Clippers just shows how much they’ve been downgraded in everyone’s power rankings. This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Thunder.
It’s also a great ‘sell high’ spot for the Clippers. They are off to a 4-2 start this season and coming off back-to-back blowout victories over the Rockets and Wizards. I think they’ll fail to meet the lofty expectations they have now earned in the eyes of the oddsmakers tonight.
The Thunder also want revenge from a 92-108 road loss to the Clippers back on October 19th less than two weeks ago. But Russell Westbrook sat out that game due to injury, and that injury is a big reason for their early struggles. Westbrook is back healthy now and ready to help get this thing turned around in OKC.
The Thunder are 72-46 ATS in their last 118 games after having lost three of their last four games coming in. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Oklahoma City.
Plays on favorites (OKC) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points against an opponent that’s coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|10-30-18||Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 210||105-108||Loss||-110||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Celtics UNDER 210
This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER. The Celtics and Pistons just played each other in Detroit on October 27th. They combined for just 198 points in a 109-89 road win for Boston. And now this total has been set at 210 points for the rematch just a few days later, and I think there’s value with the UNDER.
The reason these situations are so good is because both teams are familiar with each other having just played. And both teams have had two days off since that game, so all they’ve been doing is preparing for each other in practice. And that certainly favors the defenses.
Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Celtics are holding opponents to just 96.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting. But they have yet to get their offense going, averaging just 101.5 points per game on 41.4% shooting. They will control this game playing at home.
The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 208 or fewer points in four of the five. Detroit is 14-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 210 over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 55-23-3 in Pistons last 81 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six home games.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 210 (Boston) - after allowing 90 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games are 30-7 (81.1%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-29-18||Warriors v. Bulls +11.5||Top||149-124||Loss||-108||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +11.5
The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough early scheduling spot here. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight. Players aren’t as in shape early in the season as they are later in the year, so this tough early scheduling spots have more of an impact.
I don’t think we see a very good effort from the Warriors tonight as a result. Their four stars in Stepen Curry (36:16), Klay Thompson (33:35), Kevin Durant (39:08) and Draymond Green (36:19) all played big minutes against the Nets last night. Steve Kerr will surely limit their minutes tonight if possible, and that means more minutes for what is one of the worst benches in the league.
The Bulls had yesterday off and should be fresh and ready to go. They will be laying it all on the line with the defending champion Warriors coming to town. I know the Bulls have some injury issues right now, but that didn’t stop them from winning two of their last three games in upset fashion, including a 97-85 win in Atlanta as 5.5-point dogs on Saturday. Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker have really taken on bigger roles and are excelling in them.
Chicago is 12-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 11-22 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit win. The home team is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - playing on back-to-back days, in the first half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1996. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - a team that had a winning record last season, off four or more consecutive wins are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996. The Warriors are simply overvalued right now given the spot and situation. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|10-29-18||Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 240.5||120-124||Loss||-105||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Timberwolves UNDER 240.5
This total has gotten out of hand tonight. I think there’s value backing the UNDER because of it. This total is inflated because the Lakers have their guys back from suspension. But they aren’t going to be this poor defensively all season because Lebron James simply won’t stand for it.
Andrew Wiggins has missed the last two games for the Timberwolves and is questionable to return from a quad injury tonight. And Minnesota isn’t getting much done on offense right now. They are averaging just 100.3 points per game in their last three games coming in.
The Lakers and Timberwolves have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of the last eight meetings. That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 240.5-point total set. They have averaged 219.8 combined points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than this total.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or more in a game involving two bad teams who win 25% to 40% of their games are 58-24 (70.7%) since 1996. The UNDER is 6-1 in Timberwolves last seven games when playing on two days’ rest. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-28-18||Warriors v. Nets +10.5||120-114||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +10.5
The Nets should be a pretty big money maker this season. They have improved greatly each season in the three years under Kenny Atkinson and this year should be no different. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and have been stockpiling talent through the draft. I like what I’ve seen from this team thus far.
The Nets are just 2-3 but two of their losses came by a combined 5 points on the road to Detroit (100-103) and at previously unbeaten New Orleans (115-117). They have played four of their first five games on the road this season with their lone home game resulting in a win over the Knicks.
The Warriors are overvalued after covering three straight with blowout wins over the Suns, Wizards and Knicks. They will get some resistance from the Nets here. And I don’t think they will be ‘all in’ for this game knowing that they play a back-to-back with a road game at Chicago tomorrow.
The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors, including 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. Brooklyn is 14-3 ATS vs. up-tempo teams who average 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons. They are actually winning these games outright by 6.7 points per game on average. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - an explosive offensive team that scores 103 or more points per game against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Nets Sunday.
|10-27-18||Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230.5||106-110||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 230.5
I love this spot for an UNDER bet between the Lakers and Spurs. These teams just played on October 22nd five days again and it was a shootout. The Spurs won 143-142 in overtime in a game that was tied 128-128 after regulation.
So, with that big scoring output, the total has now been inflated. It was set at 226.5 for that game, and now it’s set four points higher at 230.5 in the rematch. I love taking the UNDER when teams play each other a second time in a close proximity because it’s almost always lower scoring the second time.
The biggest reason for this is that teams become familiar with one another. That favors defense a lot more than offense. Both teams know what one another like to do offensively, and they’ll be better prepared to stop it the second time around. I expect this to be more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers are anticipating tonight.
Prior to that 256-point output at the end of regulation, the Lakers and Spurs had combined for 223 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their previous seven meetings. The Lakers are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or better in three straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-27-18||Celtics -3.5 v. Pistons||109-89||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5
The Detroit Pistons are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start to the season. Their four wins have come against soft competition in the Nets, Bulls, 76ers and Cavaliers with three of them at home. They won those four games by a combined 13 points, or by an average of 3.3 points per game.
Now they take a big step up in class here against the Boston Celtics. I think we are getting a short price on the Celtics because they are just 3-2 on the season thus far. I have no doubt they are one of the best teams in the NBA, and probably the best team in the Eastern Conference. Look for them to make easy work of the Pistons and hand them their first loss tonight.
The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last five meetings with the Pistons. Better yet, the Celtics are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Detroit. They won both road meetings last year by 12 and 10 points, respectively.
The Celtics are 41-17 ATS in their last 58 Saturday games. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Boston is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|10-26-18||Nets +10 v. Pelicans||Top||115-117||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +10
The Brooklyn Nets catching double-digits to the New Orleans Pelicans tonight is a nice value play. I think the Nets are underrated early in the season, while the Pelicans are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers.
The Pelicans have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. With that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to. No question the Pelicans are a playoff contender, but they can’t be laying double-digits consistently.
The Nets have improved dramatically over the past three seasons under head coach Kenny Atkinson. They are off to a 2-2 start this season and one of their losses was a 3-point loss at Detroit. The other was a blowout loss at Indiana. They have also beaten Cleveland on the road and New York at home thus far.
Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, off three or more consecutive wins are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Nets are 8-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons. Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Nets Friday.
|10-25-18||Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 216||Top||101-95||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 216
Both the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are highly motivated for a victory tonight. Both are off to disappointing starts as the Celtics are just 2-2 and the Thunder are 0-3. I think we see a big effort from both teams defensively to try and get a win tonight, which favors the UNDER.
The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and have been since Brad Stevens took over. They are giving up just 98.5 points per game on 42.1% shooting through four games this season. They are averaging just 198.2 combined points per game with their opponents this year, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight’s posted total of 216.
The Thunder still have the same offensive issues they’ve had since Kevin Durant left. It’s too much one-on-one with Russell Westbrook and Paul George, and they simply lack 3-point shooters. They are scoring just 104.0 points per game on 39% shooting this season thus far through three games.
Both meetings between Boston and OKC went UNDER the total with ease last season. They combined for just 195 points in Oklahoma City with a 207.5-point total. They also combined for just 199 points in their meeting in Boston with a 208-point total.
The UNDER is 17-4 in Thunder last 21 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4 in Thunder last 14 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The UNDER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games following a double-digit home loss. The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last four games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-24-18||Wizards +9.5 v. Warriors||122-144||Loss||-102||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +9.5
The Washington Wizards are highly motivated for a victory after a 1-2 start to the season. Well, their two losses came by a combined 5 points to the Heat and Raptors, who of the better teams in the East. And their win was an impressive 125-124 (OT) road win at Portland. They seem to play up to their level of competition and have for years.
Now I think the Wizards have what it takes to go into Golden State and give the defending champion Warriors a run for their money. Especially now that they are going with the small ball lineup of Wall, Beal, Morris, Porter Jr. and Oubre Jr. that served them so well against the Blazers last time out. They can now match the small ball lineup of the Warriors.
Golden State has clearly been overvalued to open the season and continues to be here tonight. The Warriors are 1-3 ATS in their four games this season. They only beat OKC by 8 as 12-point home favorites without Russell Westbrook, they only won 124-123 at Utah as 2.5-point favorites and needed a huge comeback to win that game, and they lost 98-100 as 4.5-point road favorites at Denver.
The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Warriors while losing by more than 8 points only once. The Warriors are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.
|10-24-18||Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 219.5||92-97||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 219.5
I think this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Kings have gone 4-0 to the over in their first four games. I think there’s now value with the UNDER because of it, especially since they’re up against the Grizzlies, one of the few teams in the NBA that still gets after it defensively.
The Grizzlies are holding opponents to 104.0 points per game through three games this season. They still have offensive issues of their own because they don’t have many go-to players outside Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, who have been stalwarts for this team for years. The Grizzlies are averaging just 102.0 points per game and shooting 40.2% from the floor.
A quick look at the recent series history between these teams and it’s easy to see there’s value with the UNDER. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. The Kings and Grizzlies have combined for 210 or fewer points in all eight meetings. They are averaging just 196.3 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than tonight’s posted total of 219.5.
The Grizzlies and Kings have failed to combine for 220 or more points in 19 of their last 21 meetings. That’s a 19-2 system backing the UNDER tonight, and an 8-0 system in the last eight meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|10-24-18||Pacers v. Spurs -2||Top||116-96||Loss||-105||9 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2
The Spurs are getting no love to start the season. But they’re better than last year when they went 47-35 for the simple fact that Kawhi Leonard didn’t even play last year, and now they’ve replaced him with DeMar DeRozan, who is on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong.
The duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and DeRozan gives the Spurs some consistent offensive punch. Aldridge had 37 points and 10 rebounds, while DeRozan had 32 points and a career-high 14 assists to lead the Spurs to a 143-142 (OT) victory over Lebron James and the Lakers in Los Angeles last time out.
Indiana is 2-0 at home with wins over Memphis and Brooklyn, but 0-2 on the road with blowout losses to Milwaukee (101-118) and Minnesota (91-101). The Pacers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as only 2-point road underdogs to the Spurs tonight.
The Spurs are 17-4 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Pacers. San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.
|10-23-18||Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 239||109-116||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Pelicans UNDER 239
This total has clearly been inflated tonight due to the Pelicans going over the total in their first two games of the season. They combined for 243 points with the Rockets in Game 1 and a whopping 278 points with the Kings in Game 2. Now the total has been set at 239 for this game against the Clippers, and it’s simply too high.
Patrick Beverly has dubbed the new Clippers “Clamp City” for their defensive prowess. Gone are the “Lob City” days of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan as all three are gone. And the Clippers now have to win with defense.
They did it in the preseason, giving up just 97 points per game, which was the best mark in the NBA. And they’ve been solid defensively thus far in the regular season, opening 2-1 while holding the Nuggets, Thunder and Rockets to an average of just 103.7 points per game and 40.6% shooting.
The Pelicans have shot the lights out of the ball thus far, hitting 56% as a team and 46.4% from 3-point range. That obviously won’t continue for the rest of the season, and I think the Clippers can hold them well below their outputs against the Rockets and Kings.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (New Orleans) - off a home win by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 25-6 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. The Pelicans and Clippers have combined to average 215.8 points per game in those five meetings. That’s roughly 23 points less than tonight’s posted total of 239. There’s clearly some value with the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-22-18||Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 214.5||92-84||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 214.5
I’ll take the UNDER in this game Monday night between the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies. I think it’s an inflated number based on both teams coming off high-scoring games. The Jazz combined for 247 points with the Warriors last time out, while the Grizzlies combined for 248 points with the Hawks.
But one look at the recent history between the Jazz and Grizzlies and it’s easy to see there’s value with the UNDER. These are two teams that value playing defense more than most teams in the NBA, and that hasn’t changed this season.
The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 straight meetings. They’ve combined for 211 or less in 30 straight meetings. And with this total at 214.5 tonight, that’s a 30-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-21-18||Rockets v. Clippers||112-115||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Clippers NBA TV No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK
The Houston Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back today after a huge 124-115 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It’s almost certain they went out after the game for this Los Angeles double-header, which means they won’t be on their ‘A’ game today.
Plus you have to factor in that Chris Paul will likely get suspended from his scuffle with Rajon Rondo. And the Rockets weren’t nearly as good in games that Paul missed last season. It cost them a possible series win against the Warriors and a trip to the NBA Finals.
The Clippers should be 2-0, but they blew a big lead against the Nuggets in their opener. They responded with a 108-92 win over the Thunder on Friday before having Saturday off to rest and get ready for the Rockets. Patrick Beverly will be highly motivated to go up against his former team, and I expect him to guard James Harden a lot and make life difficult on him.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Clippers Sunday.
|10-20-18||Nets +8.5 v. Pacers||112-132||Loss||-107||8 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +8.5
The Brooklyn Nets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They won’t be phased by these back-to-back situations. And Indiana is also on a back-to-back off its 101-118 loss at Milwaukee last night.
I just think the Nets are catching too many points tonight. The won last night over the Knicks despite losing the turnover battle 22-3. And they only lost by 3 at Detroit in their opener 100-103. This will be a pesky team in the East capable of competing with anyone all season.
The Pacers are getting too much respect from the books here. They came out of nowhere to earn the 4th seed in the East last season and took the Cavs to the brink. I think they are overvalued early in the season because of last season.
The Nets are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games. Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on no rest. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Nets Saturday.
|10-19-18||Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 215.5||92-108||Win||100||16 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers UNDER 215.5
Patrick Beverly has nicknamed the new Clippers as “Clamp City”, replacing the old “Lob City” they were famous for when Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan led the team. It’s a fitting nickname because the Clippers now have to rely on defense to win games, which is certainly fine for the defensive-minded Doc Rivers.
The Clippers have some of the better defenders in the NBA at the guard positions in Avery Bradley and Beverly. They also added Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, and he’s known for being a defensive specialist. The Clippers were the best team in the NBA defensively in the preseason, holding opponents to just 97 points per game.
The Clippers easily went UNDER the 222.5-point total in their opener in a 98-107 home loss to the Nuggets for 205 combined points. And they should go UNDER easily again tonight against a Thunder team that should be without Russell Westbrook, who is doubtful with a knee injury. Westbrook missed the opener against the Warriors, which was a defensive battle which saw just 208 combined points, staying well UNDER the 220.5-point total.
Oklahoma City is 29-13 UNDER in its last 42 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder’s last nine road games. The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|10-19-18||Knicks v. Nets -3||105-107||Loss||-107||13 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3
The Brooklyn Nets have made big strides the last few years under head coach Kenny Atkinson. I think they are going to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA this season. They certainly have one of the deepest teams in the NBA.
The Nets suffered a tough 100-103 road loss to the Pistons in their opener, but covered as 6-point underdogs. Now they play their home opener two nights later and should get a win over the New York Knicks.
The Knicks come into this game overvalued off their 126-107 home win over Hawks. But the Hawks are the worst team in the NBA this season in my opinion. And the Knicks have big injury concerns as they are without their best player in Kristaps Porzingis for the foreseeable future, and both Courtney Lee and Emmanuel Mudiay are questionable after missing the opener.
The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. The Knicks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Nets Friday.
|10-18-18||Heat v. Wizards -5||113-112||Loss||-115||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5
The Miami Heat are a mess right now injury-wise. They are likely to be without Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, Wayne Ellington and James Johnson, just as they were last night against the Magic. And they lost 101-104 to a bad Orlando team while shooting 39.2% from the floor.
Now they take a step up in class here and have to play the second of a back-to-back short-handed. I like the Wizards laying the small number at home here. This is a Wizards team that is one of the best in the Eastern Conference.
The Wizards return four starters this season in John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Markieff Morris. And now they swap out Marcin Gortat for Dwight Howard and should be a better defensive and rebounding team because of it, which was their weakness last year. And their bench gets a nice boost with the addition of Austin Rivers from the Clippers and Jeff Green from the Cavs.
Plays against underdogs (Miami) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 24-2 (92.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.
|10-17-18||Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 226||Top||107-98||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226
Patrick Beverly has nicknamed the new clippers at “Clamp City”, replacing the old “Lob City” that was here when Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan led the team. It’s very fitting because these Clippers will have to rely on defense to win game.
They have some of the better defenders in the NBA at the guard positions in Beverly and Avery Bradley. They also added Luc Mbah a Moute who has already been known as a defensive specialist. And the Clippers were awesome defensively in the preseason, giving up just 97 points per game, which was the best mark in the league.
The Nuggets played a big portion of last season without their best defender in Paul Millsap due to injury. Well, he is the floor general on defense, and as long as he’s healthy they should be much better on that end of the court. And the Nuggets showed in the preseason that they can defend by holding opponents to 105 points per game.
A key injury here will also help the UNDER. The Nuggets made a good move to acquire Isaiah Thomas, who is notoriously one of the worst defenders in the NBA, but a great scorer. Well, Thomas is opening the season in street clothes due to a hip injury. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|10-17-18||Jazz v. Kings +9||123-117||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +9
The Utah Jazz are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers coming into the 2018-19 season. They can’t be 9-point road favorites here against the Sacramento Kings, or anyone for that matter.
It all stems back to the Jazz winning 29 of their final 35 regular season games last year. But they were just a .500 team before that, yet they’re being treated more like the team that went 29-6 to close. I think it’s somewhere in between for this squad.
The Kings were a very young team last year in a 27-55 season. Dave Joerger now has a team that is a year older with players like De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield expected to take a leap forward this year. And they got what could turn out to be the best player in the draft in Marvin Bagley III to add some much-needed scoring punch as the forward position.
Sacramento has simply had Utah’s number. The Kings are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 meetings with the Jazz, including 17-8-2 ATS in the most recent 27 meetings. Sacramento is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.
|10-17-18||Wolves v. Spurs -2||108-112||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2
It’s another season, and yet the Spurs are once again opening the season undervalued. What do they have to do to get some respect? They have 21 straight winning seasons and have the second-highest winning percentage of any team in the four major professional sports during that span.
I know the Spurs lost some of their foundation pieces in Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and Kawhi Leonard this offseason. But Leonard didn’t even play last year, Parker wasn’t effective, and Ginobli only showed flashes at times. It was time to get younger, and I’m not so sure the Spurs aren’t actually better off for it.
DeMar DeRozan was upset he was traded by Toronto initially because he wanted to be a Raptor for life. However, he has warmed up to San Antonio over time, and he has stated that he will take his revenge out on the rest of the league. DeRozan pairs with LaMarcus Aldridge to give the Spurs the scoring punch in the starting lineup that desperately missed last season. They went 3-2 in the preseason and outscored opponents by nearly 6 points per game.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are a mess right now. The Jimmy Butler trade demand has me really questioning their togetherness as a team right now. And it showed in the preseason as the Timberwolves went 1-4 while giving up 123.8 points per game and getting outscored by 15 points per game.
The Spurs are 23-12 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons. San Antonio is 36-9 SU in its last 45 home meetings with Minnesota. The Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games dating back to last season. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|10-16-18||76ers v. Celtics -4.5||Top||87-105||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics 2018 NBA Season Opener on Boston -4.5
It’s amazing that the Celtics were able to make the Eastern Conference Finals last year after losing their two best players to season-ending injuries. Gordon Hayward was lost for the season after the first game, and Kyrie Irving missed the end of the regular season and playoffs with a knee injury.
Well, both Hayward and Irving are back to 100%, and the Celtics basically return everyone intact from a year ago. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rosier all three grew up in a big way last year, and leaders Al Horford and Marcus Smart remain with the team. The Celtics are the clear favorites to win the East this season with Lebron James now in the Western Conference.
The 76ers are one of the top contenders to challenge Boston for East supremacy. I like their team and they return mostly intact as well. But they couldn’t beat Boston in the Eastern Conference Semifinals despite the absences of Irving and Hayward. They won’t be getting by them in Game 1 tonight or in the playoffs for that matter if the Celtics stay healthy.
The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the 76ers. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|06-08-18||Warriors v. Cavs +4.5||Top||108-85||Loss||-104||9 h 21 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Cleveland +4.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers easily could be up 2-1 in this series. They blew the game late in Game 1 and Game 3. This is a repeat of last year when the Warriors jumped out 3-0, only for the Cavs to win Game 4 and avoid the sweep. I think that will be the case again here.
The Cavaliers still haven’t shot up to their potential in any of the three games, which makes it even more remarkable that they could easily be up 2-1 in this series. They shot 44.4% in Game 1, 41.1% in Game 2 and 43.5% in Game 3. I have to think they are primed for their best shooting performance of the season in Game 4.
Conversely, the Warriors have shot lights out at 51.1% in Game 1, 57.3% in Game 2 and 51.9% in Game 3. Look for the Cavaliers to make the proper adjustments to not allow so many easy layups and dunks that the Warriors have been getting. Lebron James called out his team for having too many mental errors after Game 3, and they should respond accordingly.
Golden State is 3-11 ATS off five or more consecutive wins this season. Cleveland is 8-1 SU In its last nine home playoff games. The Warriors are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Friday.
|06-06-18||Warriors v. Cavs +5||Top||110-102||Loss||-110||60 h 9 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +5
The Cavaliers won’t go down without a fight. Look for them to come out like gangbusters in Game 3, which always seems to happen with the home team when they were down 0-2 in a series. Cleveland will get the win and cover in Game 3 Wednesday night.
Cleveland showed well in Golden State. The Cavaliers should have won Game 1 but the calls did not go their way as they lost in overtime. They then kept it within 10 before getting blown out in the 4th quarter of Game 2. But it will be a different story at home tonight.
The Cavaliers are 8-1 at home in the playoffs. They have won eight straight since losing Game 1 to Indiana to open the playoffs. Their last four victories against the Celtics and Raptors have all come by 9 points or more. They are just way more comfortable in front of their home fans, especially their role players. They are 37-13 at home this season.
Golden State is 4-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season. The Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a win by more than 10 points. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 3 Wednesday.
|06-03-18||Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors||Top||103-122||Loss||-109||12 h 33 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 No-Brainer on Cleveland +11.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers proved they could play with the Warriors in Game 1. They forced overtime and would have won if not for several missed calls by the officials down the stretch. Of course, a missed FT by George Hill and a bonehead play by JR Smith did not help.
The Cavs will come back even more motivated and confident in Game 2 tonight. And while the Cavs are now fully healthy with Kevin Love back, the Warriors are far from it.
Andre Iguodala is doubtful for Game 2 and his absence for this team thus far is not getting factored into the line like it should be. He is more important to the Warriors than he gets credit for. Also, Klay Thompson suffered a knee injury in Game 1 that had him really hobbled after the game. He is questionable to play in Game 2.
The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following a win. Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on two days’ rest. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Sunday.
|05-31-18||Cavs +13 v. Warriors||Top||114-124||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland +13
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been hearing all week leading up to Game 1 of the NBA Finals how they are the biggest underdogs in NBA Finals history. They will be highly motivated to prove their doubters wrong in Game 1, just as they have been doing this entire season.
They’re already motivated enough due to the rivalry they have formed with the Warriors as this is their fourth straight year meeting in the NBA Finals. You know Lebron will be playing with a chip on his shoulder in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight as massive 13-point underdogs.
Kevin Love is questionable with a concussion, but the Cavaliers proved they could win Game 6 and Game 7 without him against the Celtics. The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala due to a knee injury once again. All the numbers show how much better they are offensively AND defensively with Iguodala in the lineup. His absence continues to get overlooked.
Plays on underdogs (Cleveland) as a #4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Golden State is 6-17 ATS in its last 13 games following a win. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.
|05-28-18||Warriors v. Rockets +6.5||Top||101-92||Loss||-103||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +6.5
It’s pretty remarkable this shift in point spread compared to the other three games played in Houston thus far. The betting public is all over the Warriors in Game 7, which is evidenced by this adjustment. We’ll gladly take the value side and the Houston Rockets as 6.5-point home underdogs.
The Rockets were 2.5-point favorites for Game 1, 2-point favorites for Game 2, and 1-point favorites for Game 5, all at home. Now they are 6.5-point underdogs, which is basically a 7.5 to 9-point adjustment. I get the Chris Paul is a game-time decision, but he isn’t worth that much to the point spread.
The Warriors have injury issues of their own that are getting overlooked here. Andre Iguodala is doubtful with his knee injury after missing the last two games. And the Warriors have certainly missed him, especially defensively. Kevin Looney is also questionable with a toe injury, and he has been starting in Iguodala’s place. Paul at least has the questionable tag, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gut it out.
The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a win by more than 10 points. Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Rockets in Game 7 Monday.
|05-27-18||Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200||Top||87-79||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 200
Every game in Boston thus far has gone UNDER the total in this series. The Cavs and Celtics have combined for 191, 201 and 179 points in their three meetings in Boston for an average of 190.3 combined points per game.
Now we’re seeing a 200-point total for Game 7, and I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER. This game will be played close to the vest, and refs will be swallowing their whistles trying to let the players decide the game.
Another key factor that points to the UNDER is that Cleveland’s second-best player in Kevin Love is going to be out with a concussion that he suffered in Game 6. That is going to force Cleveland to play a bigger lineup the majority of the game with more of Tristan Thompson. It will be more of a defensive lineup, and the Cavs will certainly miss Love’s floor spacing on offense.
Boston is 12-3 UNDER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 15-6 in Cavs last 21 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.
|05-26-18||Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212||Top||86-115||Loss||-106||14 h 10 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 212
This is by far the lowest total of the series. It opened at 225.5 for Game 1, and we’ve seen totals of 225, 226, 227.5 and 219.5 since. Sure, the under is 4-1 in this series, but now the value is with the OVER for Game 6 with a total of just 212 points.
I think the Rockets will get fatigued without Chris Paul, which will impact their defense more than anything. The Warriors should be able to hang a big number on them, but I’m not willing to lay the 12-point spread. So I think the better bet is with the OVER as the Rockets should be able to somewhat keep pace.
Both teams have shot awful the past two games, which is why we have seen such low-scoring affairs. I have to think that the two best offensive teams in the NBA won’t be held down for a 3rd straight game. Look for the Warriors to shoot 50% or better.
The Rockets have shot 39% or less three consecutive games, and that’s not likely to happen again. James Harden is in a 0-for-20 shooting slump from 3-point range. He won’t be held without a 3-pointer in Game 6, and he should have a huge game knowing he needs it with Paul out. Bet the OVER in Game 6 Saturday.
|05-25-18||Celtics v. Cavs -7||Top||99-109||Win||101||14 h 15 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7
The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in this series. These games haven’t even been close as the home team has won by 9 or more points in all five meetings, and by an average of 18.0 points per game. This trend will continue here tonight.
The Cavs are 7-0 in their last seven playoff home games. Their role players are averaging way more points at home than on the road in the playoffs, especially in this series. Lebron James and company won’t go down without a fight as he tries to keep alive his 9th straight trip to the NBA Finals.
It has been night and day for the Celtics home and away in these playoffs. Boston hasn’t lost yet at home, but the Celtics are just 1-6 on the road in the postseason. Their lone win came in overtime against the 76ers. This young team just isn’t ready to win a big road game like this one in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.
|05-24-18||Warriors v. Rockets +1||Top||94-98||Win||101||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston +1
The Houston Rockets earned a gutsy 95-92 win over Golden State in Game 4 to regain home-court advantage. They don’t want to give it right back. I look for them to follow it up with another home victory in Game 5 to take control of this series.
The Rockets showed in Game 4 that they can defend every bit as good as the Warriors when they put their minds to it. They held the Warriors to just 39.3% shooting and forced 16 turnovers. That effort gave them the belief they can beat the Warriors, which is half the battle. They should be oozing with confidence heading into Game 5, and they’ll feed off of their home crowd.
The Warriors have some injury concerns right now that have just popped up recently. Andre Iguodala missed Game 4 with a knee injury and is questionable. Klay Thompson also suffered a knee injury in Game 4 and wasn’t the same when he came back from the locker room. He will play tonight, but he won’t be very effective, putting a ton of pressure on Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry to pick up the slack.
The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days’ rest. The Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days’ rest. Golden State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockets are now 4-3 against the Warriors this season. Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Thursday.
|05-23-18||Cavs v. Celtics +1||Top||83-96||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston +1
The Boston Celtics return home after a good effort in Game 4 in which they made the Cavaliers earn it. They still control this series due to having home-court advantage, and I like them to get a victory here in Game 5 tonight.
The Celtics have gone 9-0 at home in these playoffs and have won 10 in a row at home dating back to the regular season. They are 36-14 at home this year. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA with rabid fans that don’t make it easy on the opposition.
Boston beat Cleveland 108-83 at home in Game 1 and 107-94 at home in Game 2. Lebron James is the only one that can be trusted to show up for the Cavs on the road. Their role players’ games have not traveled well, namely JR Smith, Kyle Korver and George Hill. They aren’t getting much production from anyone but James on the road in these playoffs.
The Celtics are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games. Boston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Cavs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston is 23-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season, and 14-3 ATS when revenging a road loss. The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 70% of their games this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Wednesday.
|05-22-18||Rockets +9 v. Warriors||Top||95-92||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +9
The Houston Rockets got absolutely embarrassed in Game 3. They shot just 39.5% while committing 19 turnovers as a team. They’ll come back with a much better effort in Game 4 tonight to try and square this series at 2-2.
I like the fact that this line has climbed to +9 after being a 7.5-point spread in Game 3. This is just a result of public perception after Game 3. But the Rockets aren’t nearly as bad as they showed, and the Warriors aren’t as good as they showed. This is still a 3-3 series dating back to the start of the regular season and I view these teams as close to equals, so getting 9 points is too much.
There is a key injury for the Warriors that is getting overlooked as well. Andre Iguodala is doubtful with a knee injury. He is the most underrated player on this team, and he even won NBA Finals MVP a few years back. He does all the little things that go unnoticed. Not having him on defense will make the Warriors extremely vulnerable on switches. The Rockets will take advantage.
The Warriors are 1-10 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Golden State is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on one days’ rest. Mike D’Antoni is 19-6 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days as the coach of Houston. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|05-21-18||Celtics v. Cavs -7||Top||102-111||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -7
Cleveland improved to 6-1 at home in the playoffs this season with their 116-86 beat down of the Boston Celtics in Game 3. The Cavaliers have now won six in a row at home and still have work to do here in Game 4 to even this series.
The road struggles of the Boston Celtics also continued. The Celtics haven’t lost at home yet, but they’re just 1-5 on the road in the playoffs. Their only victory came in overtime against the 76ers. Four of their five losses have come by double-digits.
Cleveland’s role players have played much better at home in these playoffs. Kyle Korver, JR Smith and George Hill all had very good games against the Celtics in Game 3. They even got contributions from Larry Nance and Jordan Clarkson. They will play well again tonight at home in Game 4.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent that is off a home win scoring 110 points or more are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Monday.
|05-20-18||Rockets +8 v. Warriors||Top||85-126||Loss||-108||9 h 10 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +8
The Houston Rockets have been the better team all season over Golden State. They won two of three meetings during the regular season, and they have been the better team for 3/4 of the first two games of this series. The only exception was the second half of Game 2, but I don’t expect them to play that poorly again the rest of the series.
The Rockets made some great adjustments in Game 2 both offensively and defensively. They put more shooters on the floor in Game 2, and they defended Golden State’s pick and rolls much more effectively. The end result was a 127-105 blowout victory in their favor.
The key advantage the Warriors have in this series is targeting Stephen Curry. They put Curry in numerous pick and rolls until he’s forced to switch on Harden, who keeps torching him time and time again. This also wears out Curry, who recently returned from an ankle injury. That’s why Curry has struggled so much on offense in these first two games. Kevin Durant is the only play for the Warriors who is getting his consistently, but he’s having to do so in one-on-one isolation stuff, which the Rockets will live with.
The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Houston is 10-3 ATS In its last 13 games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Bet the Rockets in Game 3 Sunday.
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6.5||Top||86-116||Win||100||60 h 17 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -6.5
Lebron James has been in this situation before. He has come back to win a series down 2-0 twice in six tries. That’s pretty impressive, and he and his teammates won’t be lacking in confidence at all faced with this situation again.
Previously, most of those 0-2 deficits came against much better teams than these Boston Celtics. Give the Celtics credit, they have gotten the most out of their team. But I think reality is about to set in in Cleveland, starting with Game 3 here Saturday night.
Lebron has gotten zero help outside anyone not named Kevin Love in this series. But role players usually play better at home, and you can expect the Kyle Korvers, George Hills and JR Smiths of the world to play much better in Cleveland in Game 3. Almost all the role players played great in the sweep of Toronto, so they know they are capable.
Boston hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs, but this young team has struggled on the road. The Celtics are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road playoff games against the 76ers and Bucks. Their lone win came in overtime. This will be their toughest road test yet in Game 3 against a motivated Cavs squad. Cleveland is 5-1 at home in the playoffs. Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.
2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:
Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)
Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old. He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse. Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.
But it won’t matter either way. Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion. He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths. He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby. He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.
Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby. Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory. He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness. He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown. Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.
Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)
If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.
Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out. He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue. He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.
There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race. And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race. He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.
Show: No. 5 Good Magic (3/1)
I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up. There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.
Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start. He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year. He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.
The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender. Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats. He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby. Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness. This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.
Exacta Box: (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic
Trifecta Box: (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo
Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta. Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta. I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.
|05-16-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1||Top||105-127||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -1
The Houston Rockets are in must-win mode in Game 2 tonight. They cannot afford to go back to Golden State down 0-2, or this series is over. So look for their best effort here tonight, which will be good enough to get a win.
The Rockets bogged down in the second half of Game 1. I expect them to make the proper adjustments. They committed too many turnovers, which led to easy layups on the other end for Golden State. Look for them to clean that up, and to get more movement from everyone else around James Harden and Chris Paul to make it more difficult on Golden State’s defense.
Plays on favorites (Houston) - revenging a loss by 10 points more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 117-69 (62.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Golden State is 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Warriors are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on one days’ rest. Golden State is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 10 points. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.
|05-15-18||Cavs +1 v. Celtics||Top||94-107||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +1
After getting embarrassed 83-108 in Game 1 Sunday, the Cleveland Cavaliers will respond in a big way here Tuesday night in Game 2. Look for them to win this game and grab home-court advantage for the series.
The Cavs shot just 36% as a team in Game 1, including a woeful 4-of-26 (15.4%) from 3-point range. They had been on fire from distance in the Toronto series, so it was an aberration. They were probably rusty after sweeping the Raptors and getting five days off in between games. The rust will be there no longer.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Cleveland is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Boston. Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday.
|05-14-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1||Top||119-106||Loss||-105||9 h 52 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1
The Houston Rockets built their team to compete with the Warriors. They executed it to perfection during the regular season as they snagged the No. 1 seed to earn home-court advantage, which gives them their best chance to dethrone the champs.
We got a taste of what the Rockets could do during the regular season against the Warriors. In fact, the Rockets won two of three meetings despite being underdogs in all three. They can certainly score with the Warriors, and their defense is vastly improved over a year ago with both Chris Paul and Clint Capela playing huge roles on that end.
While the Warriors have a tremendous starting five, their bench leaves a lot to be desired. There’s no question that the Rockets will have the advantage in this series when the starting five aren’t on the floor for the Warriors. And they typically only play 20 minutes per game or less together.
The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Golden State is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Rockets Monday.
|05-13-18||Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics||Top||83-108||Loss||-113||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* Cavs/Celtics ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a different team in these playoffs. Lebron James is playing like the MVP he is, and the role players like Kyle Korver, JR Smith and Kevin Love have really stepped up and knocked down open shot after open shot.
On paper, this is a complete mismatch. The Cavs are by far the superior team talent-wise. The 76ers were too last series, but the youth of Philadelphia really showed. Boston won the last five minutes of the first half and the 4th quarter almost every single game.
That won’t happen against the Cavaliers, who are a much more veteran squad and used to making it to the NBA Finals at this point. Brad Stevens has gotten the Celtics this far, and while I have a ton of respect for him, not even he can conjure up a game plan that’s going to be able to stop Lebron and company.
The Cavs are 10-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days.
Plays against home underdogs (Boston) - revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more, when they’re off a close home win by 3 points or less are 34-8 (81%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
|05-09-18||76ers v. Celtics +1||Top||112-114||Win||102||18 h 12 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +1
The Boston Celtics took their foot off the gas in Game 4 after taking a 3-0 lead in this series. They won’t make that mistake playing at home in a close out contest in Game 5 tonight. Look for a big effort from the Celtics here.
The Celtics are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games. That includes 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs. They have one of the toughest atmospheres for an opponent in the league. These young 76ers haven’t handled it well, and the young Bucks didn’t handle it well last series, either.
The 76ers have just struggled offensively in these playoffs. They have school 43% or worse in six consecutive games now. They are lost on offense and are hoisting way too many contested 3-pointers. They can’t be trusted to slow it down and execute with their season on the line on the road tonight.
Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. It is not only winning these games, but winning them by 6.5 points per game on average. The Celtics are also a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging a blowout loss by 10 points or more this season. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|05-08-18||Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 228.5||Top||104-113||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 228.5
The books have set the bar too high in Game 5 between the Pelicans and Warriors. This total of 228.5 is 5 points higher than Game 1’s total of 223. This despite the fact that the Warriors and Pelicans have combined for 224 or fewer points in three of the four games thus far.
The last two games have been the lowest-scoring yet, and this goes along with my theory that points are harder to come by as a series progresses. After combining for just 219 points in Game 3, they combined for only 210 in Game 4. I expect a similar output here in Game 5 now that these teams are so familiar with one another.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Pelicans last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 12-5 in Warriors’ last 17 games when playing on one days’ rest. The Warriors are 20-10 UNDER off a road win this season. New Orleans is 21-9 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|05-07-18||Raptors +5.5 v. Cavs||Top||93-128||Loss||-105||9 h 21 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5
The Cavaliers may be up 3-0 in this series, but two games were toss-ups decided by a combined 3 points. I don’t think there’s as much separation between these teams as this 3-0 lead would indicate. And I think there’s value with the Raptors as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4 tonight because of it.
You look at the adjustments in the line from Game 1 until now and it’s easy to see that there’s value with the Raptors. They went from being 7-point home favorites in both Game 1 and Game 2 to 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4. That’s a 12.5-point adjustment and simply too much.
The Raptors know that not only their season and pride are on the line, but their future as well. Dwane Casey, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry could all have their jobs on the line with the Raptors. Another playoff failure against the Cavaliers and they might just blow it all up. So they won’t be going down without a fight in Game 4.
Toronto is 12-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Cleveland is 11-30 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Raptors Monday.
|05-06-18||Rockets v. Jazz +5.5||Top||100-87||Loss||-105||8 h 17 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +5.5
The Utah Jazz will respond in a big way after getting embarrassed at home by the Houston Rockets 92-113 in Game 3. They shot just 41.7% from the field and it was over by halftime. They know their home fans deserve a better effort than that.
The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back in the lineup from a hamstring injury. He has been upgraded to questionable and will likely be a game-time decision after missing the first three games in this series. They proved they could win without him with their 116-108 road win in Game 2 as 10.5-point underdogs, but of course they’d rather have him back.
Plays against road favorites (Houston) after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a top team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS since 1996.
The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss by more than 10 points. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Sunday games. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Mike D’Antoni is 11-23 ATS after leading their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of Houston. Bet the Jazz Sunday.
|05-05-18||Raptors +5 v. Cavs||Top||103-105||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
20* Raptors/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on Toronto +5
The Toronto Raptors aren’t done yet. Most have written them off after losing the first two games of this series at home. But I strongly believe they still have some fight left in them for Game 3 to try and redeem themselves.
They let the Cavs off the hook in Game 1 by going 0-for-12 down the stretch. They never trailed one time in regulation and then lost in overtime. Then Kevin Love had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, which came out of nowhere because he had been playing terrible. The Cavs shot 59.5% as a team in Game 2, which isn’t going to happen again.
Look for the Raptors to show some pride here in Game 3. They are a much better team than they’ve shown up to this point, and I still think they are better than the Cavs. They have only forced eight turnovers this entire series, and that’s unacceptable. Their defensive effort will be the best it has been in any game this series in Game 3 to try and make up for it.
Toronto is 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Cleveland is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Cavaliers are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 home games overall. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Raptors Saturday.
My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:
Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)
Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner. He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories. He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.
Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017. His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992. He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.
Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby. If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.
Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)
Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start. I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday. After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.
Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby. He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race. He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.
Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse. Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.
The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree. Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats. He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby. Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness. The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.
Show: No. 7 Justify (3/1)
History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win. No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882. That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.
But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion. He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths. He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.
Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw. He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to. Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn. He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.
Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box
Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box
Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter. Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.
|05-04-18||Rockets -4.5 v. Jazz||Top||113-92||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -4.5
After a terrible performance in Game 2 with an upset loss to the Jazz as 10.5-point home favorites, I fully expect the Houston Rockets to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3. Look for them to bury the Jazz tonight.
The Rockets shot 40% from the field and 27% from 3-point range in Game 2. That’s not going to happen again. Meanwhile, the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and 46.9% (15-of-32) from 3-point range in Game 2. That’s also unlikely to happen again.
It was a rare win for the Jazz in this series. The Rockets are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six meetings with the Jazz this season. All five wins came by 11 points or more as well.
Houston is 14-3 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Rockets Friday.