15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/Kansas OVER 63.5

This total has been set lower than it should be due to Texas playing a 17-10 defensive battle in windy conditions against TCU last week.  Texas had scored 34 or more points in seven of its previous nine games with the exceptions being against very good Alabama and Iowa State defenses.  They will hang a big number on Kansas this week.

Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 6-4 in their 10 games this season with combined scores of 53-plus points in nine of their 10 games this season with the lone exception being Iowa State and their top-ranked defense.  They have combined with their opponents for 62 or more points in seven of their 10 games this season.

Texas has a poor pass defense that Kansas can exploit this week.  The Longhorns have allowed at least 329 passing yards in three of their last four games.  Kansas has a poor defense overall.  They allow 30.4 points per game and 443.7 yards per game and aren't good at stopping the run or the pass, allowing 168 rush yards per game and 276 pass yards per game.

If the last two meetings between these teams are any indication, this will be another shootout.  Kansas won 57-56 last season for 113 combined points with a total of 61.5.  Two meetings back Texas won 50-48 for 98 combined points and a 64-point total.  This total has been set in a similar range again this year at 63.5, and oddsmakers are once again making a mistake, largely due to Texas playing in a low-scoring game last week.

The OVER is 22-10-1 in Jayhawks last 33 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7-1 in Jayhawks last 28 games following a loss.  Both teams are bowl eligible and both teams can't win the Big 12.  So I expect both defenses to relax in this one and for the offenses to take center stage, which are the strengths of both these teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +8

Southern Miss went 3-9 last season and was as decimated by injuries as any team in the country.  The Golden Eagles have had better health this season and sit at 5-5 with an excellent chance to make a bowl game.  They will be highly motivated to punch their ticket to a bowl game this week in their final home game on Senior Day.

I liked what I saw from Southern Miss QB Trey Lowe last week against Coastal Carolina in a 23-26 road loss as 5-point dogs.  Lowe threw for 295 yards and a touchdown in a loss in what was his best game of the season.  He and Frank Gore Jr. (788 rushing yards, 5 TD) can keep them in this game against South Alabama.

After all, South Alabama has had a hard time getting margin this season, so asking them to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.  This is a Southern Miss team that only has three losses by more than 3 points this season.  I think South Alabama is getting too much respect after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall against three bad teams in Arkansas State, Texas State and Georgia Southern.  

South Alabama is 8-2 this season, but it has just one win against a team that is .500 or better this season, and that was a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5).  The Jaguars have benefitted from playing the 129th-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Southern Miss has played the 86th-ranked schedule, having to face Tulane, Miami and Liberty in the non-conference.  They upset Tulane and only lost by 2 to Liberty.

I love a good defensive home underdog, and that's what we're getting with the Golden Eagles.  Southern Miss only allows 24.5 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  Their defense can keep them in this game while Lowe and Gore make enough plays on offense to keep this one close for four quarters.

South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 November road games.  The Jaguars are 2-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win by 17 points or more.  South Alabama is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games following a win.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana-Monroe +15.5

Louisiana-Monroe kept their bowl hopes alive with a 31-28 upset win at Georgia State last week.  They had a 4th quarter comeback and now have a ton of momentum heading into this week against Troy.  They would love nothing more than to upset Troy and hand them their first conference loss this season to stay alive for a bowl before hosting Southern Miss next week.

Louisiana-Monroe has been hanging around in every conference game.  They are 3-3 in conference play with the three losses by 7, 7 and 17 points.  The two 7-point losses came to two of the best teams in the conference in Coastal Carolina and South Alabama, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys.  They will hang with Troy, too.

After all, Troy hasn't been getting margin against anyone.  The Trojans are 8-2 this season but they have just two wins by more than 9 points.  Those were against Southern Miss by 17 and Alabama A&M by 21.  They only beat Army by 1, Texas State by 3, Louisiana by 6, South Alabama by 4, WKU by 7 and Marshall by 9.  It's asking a lot of them to get margin here against a motivated Louisiana-Monroe team.

The Trojans have been fortunate the last two weeks to escape with victories.  They needed a 17-0 comeback in the 2nd half to beat Louisiana 23-17.  They barely beat Army 10-9 last week.  They can't be trusted as this big of a favorite with such a poor offense.  The Trojans are scoring just 20.2 points per game in conference plays.  It's going to be tough to cover this 15.5-point spread by scoring only 20 points.

Louisiana-Monroe has a passing attack that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They complete 68% of their passes this season and average 8.0 yards per attempt.  They also have decent balance rushing for 127 yards per game, so it's not like they are predictable.  Troy is extremely predictable on offense, rushing for juts 99 yards per game and 3.1 per carry compared to 274 passing yards per game.

Last year Louisiana-Monroe upset Troy 29-16 as 23.5-point home underdogs.  And that was a way worse ULM team than this one in Year 2 under Terry Bowden.  This team is on the improve.  No question Troy is improved too, but they have simply been fortunate in close games.  And Troy has all the pressure on them trying to win a conference title.  Bowden is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as a head coach.  Bowden is 10-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as a head coach.

ULM is 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings with only one loss by more than 8 points.  The Warhawks are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on turf.  Troy is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home games following three or more consecutive UNDERS.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after playing a home game.  Troy is getting way too much credit for its 8-2 record and home-field advantage in this one.  This game will go down to the wire just like most Troy games have this season.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +4.5

I love the spot for Arizona this week.  The Wildcats kept their bowl hopes alive by pulling off the 34-28 upset win at UCLA as 20-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that victory.  Now they sit at 4-6 on the season with two very winnable home games against Washington State and Arizona State to finish the season.  There will be no letdown following that UCLA win knowing they are so close to getting to a bowl, which would be huge for second-year head coach Jedd Fisch and these players considering they haven't been to a bowl since 2017.

This is a letdown spot for their opponent instead.  Washington State just clinched a bowl berth, getting to 6-4 with a 28-18 home win over Arizona State last week.  It's also a sandwich spot with the Apple Cup on deck against Washington next week.  I don't see the Cougars being motivated at all to go into Arizona and win this game this week given the spot.

Washington State is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State/West Virginia UNDER 54.5

Kansas State just wants to get into West Virginia and get out with a win.  The Wildcats control their own destiny to make the Big 12 Championship Game.  They aren't concerned about running up the score.  They are going to rely on their running game and defense to go in and get a win, and I look for this to be a defensive struggle as a result.

Kansas State has the best running game and one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They rush for 215 yards per game and hold opponents to 17.5 points per game.  West Virginia has an average offense that averages just 5.5 yards per play.  They showed they could win a defensive struggle last week in a 23-20 victory over Oklahoma at home.  WVU likes to run the ball too averaging 37 rushing attempts per game compared to 40 for Kansas State.

It will be cold and windy at West Virginia with the forecast calling for 30 degrees and 15 MPH winds at kickoff.  Both teams want to run the ball anyway, and they will want to run it even more with it being windy.  This has been a low-scoring series as it is.  Indeed, each of the last nine meetings between Kansas State and West Virginia have seen 51 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 54.5-point total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UMass +33.5

The UMass Minutemen have quietly been very competitive here of late.  They haven't lost a game by more than 28 points since Week 2 at Toledo and Week 1 at Tulane in a 32-point loss.  That includes a 7-point loss to Eastern Michigan, an 18-point loss to Liberty and a 2-point loss to Arkansas State.  The Minutemen won't be losing by five touchdowns Saturday, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Texas A&M may not be able to score 35 points in this one.  In fact, they haven't scored more than 31 points in any game this season.  It is a lost season for the Aggies as they sit at 3-7 following six consecutive losses.  How motivated do you really think they are to be playing this game against UMass this weekend?  The answer is not at all.  So lacking the motivation will make it tough for them to cover this big of a number.  It will be a sleepy 12 PM EST start time and I don't expect many fans to turn out for this game at all, so there will be zero home-field advantage.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two consecutive games coming in.  UMass can run the ball averaging 160 rushing yards per game this season.  Texas A&M allows 221 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Minutemen are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with UMass Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +16.5

This is a terrible spot for UCF this week.  They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane.  They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and I don't think they have much gas left in the tank here.

This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy.  UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida.  They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses.  Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week.

UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning.  It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night.  I expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important.  The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it.

Navy has no quit in them.  They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs.  If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less.  UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite.  Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes.  That will be the key to success again this season.  Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game.

UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati.  Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush.

UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored.  Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play.  These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen.  Take Navy Saturday.

20* SDSU/New Mexico FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego State -14

The San Diego State Aztecs are quietly playing their best football of the season.  They are just one game back in the MWC West division and still alive for the title, so there will be no letdown spot for them this week.  And I look for them to continue their great play with a blowout victory over lowly New Mexico.

San Diego State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  After winning 23-7 at Nevada as a 7-point favorite, the Aztecs gave Jake Haener and Fresno State all they wanted in a 28-32 road loss as 11-point dogs.  They outgained the Bulldogs by 58 yards in that game and should have won, but gave up two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds in the final two minutes.  They blew a 28-10 lead.

They were clearly flat the next week in a 14-10 win over UNLV as 5-point favorites, but that was a UNLV team off a bye that had just gotten starting QB Doug Brumfield back.  UNLV just gave Fresno all they wanted last week too.  But the Aztecs put together their most complete performance of the season last week in a 43-27 win over a very good San Jose State team.  They outgained the Spartans by 202 yards in the win.

San Diego State finally has a legitimate offense this season with Jalen Mayden at quarterback.  He is completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,253 yards with an 8-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt in limited action and just recently taking over.  Mayden also provides them with a dual threat, rushing for 171 yards and three scores at 3.7 per attempt.  He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 61 more against San Jose State last time out.  

The Aztecs have topped 417 total yards in three of their last five games. They still have a very good defense and do every year.  They rank 38th in total defense at 353.1 yards per game and 38th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game.  They are 24th against the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground and that makes this a good matchup for them facing New Mexico.

The Lobos don't move the football well, but when they do they do it almost exlusively on the ground.  The Lobos rank 129th in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game and 131st in total offense at 238.0 yards per game.  They average 128.8 rushing yards per game and 109.2 passing yards per game.  Simply put, they are dreadful on offense.

New Mexico is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with seven consecutive losses by double-digits.  I question how much this team even wants to play out the rest of the season considering they keep getting blasted week after week, so motivation is not on their side in this one.  San Diego State has won eight consecutive meetings with New Mexico, including a 31-7 victory last year as a 19.5-point favorite.  The Aztecs have held the Lobos to 263 or fewer yards in four consecutive meetings.

San Diego State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lobos are 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall.  New Mexico is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

15* Titans/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -3

The Green Bay Packers saved their season on Sunday with a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter against the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-28 (OT).  I was not excited about it as I had the Cowboys, but I was impressed nonetheless.  Dallas is legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL and was coming off a bye.  I expect the Packers to carry that momentum into Thursday.

Green Bay racked up 415 yards on a very good Dallas defense.  They got their ground game going with 207 yards, and Christian Watson finally had his breakout game with three receiving touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers.  No question the Packers now have a better offense than the Titans.

I haven't seen this fraudulent of a team in a long time.  Tennessee is 6-3 this season despite getting outgained by 76 yards per game on the season.  They have been outgained in eight of their nine games this season with the lone exception being Houston.  They are living on borrowed time, and their luck runs out this week.

This is a terrible spot for the Titans.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 12 days.  They went to OT against Kansas City two games back and needed a red zone stop to avoid overtime in a 17-10 win over the Broncos last week.  They are out of gas, especially when you look at their injury report.  The Titans will be missing as many as five starters on defense for this game.

Meanwhile, the Packers are as healthy as they have been in a long time on offense.  This is also a much better spot for Green Bay considering they just played at home on Sunday and will get to stay home on this short week, so travel is not an issue for them like it is for Tennessee.  The Packers can load up to stop the run because the Titans have no passing game, averaging a woeful 148 passing yards per game this season.

Plays on favorites (Green Bay) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Packers Thursday.

20* SMU/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

The SMU Mustangs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games while averaging 46.0 points per game during this stretch.  And we have a total of only 64.5 here against Tulane Thursday night.  The Mustangs are also allowing 38.0 points per game in their last seven games, so it's not like they are stopping anyone.

Tulane has a very good offense this season averaging 32.7 points per game.  They also have a good defense, but they've played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The Green Wave were exposed last week in a 38-31 loss to UCF.  They allowed 475 total yards to the Knights in the shootout loss.

Plays in shootouts is nothing new for these teams.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Last year they combined for 81 points after combining for 71 points two seasons ago.  In fact, SMU and Tulane have combined for at least 66 points in six of their last nine meetings.  And we only need 65 here to cash this total.  The weather looks good for this one with temps in the 50's and 3 MPH winds with a 5% chance of precipitation.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State -7.5

Eastern Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth with a lackluster 34-28 win at Akron last week.  Now bowl eligible, the Eagles will be flat this week.  No question Kent State (4-6) will be more motivated as this is not only to keep their bowl hopes alive, but it's also Senior Night for the Golden Flashes.  I expect them to win in a blowout.

This is one of those rare times where the team with a worse record by two or more games is actually the better team.  Kent State has played the 78th-ranked schedule in the country while Eastern Michigan has played the 130th.  That's 52 spots' difference for two teams in the same conference.  That is the only reason Eastern Michigan has a better record than Kent State.

Amazingly, despite playing the tougher schedule that has included Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia, the Golden Flashes still have the better stats than the Eagles.  Kent State is only getting outgained by 10 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Eastern Michigan is getting outgained by 38 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.

It has been real ugly for the Eagles of late.  They lost by 29 to Northern Illinois and were outgained by 184 yards.  They did beat Ball State by 4 and outgained them by 56 yards.  But then they were outgained by 157 yards by Toledo and by 41 yards by lowly Akron.  The Eagles are really struggling offensively, averaging just 284 yards per game in their last four games.  Kent State is coming off a 40-6 win at Bowling Green and I don't think Eastern Michigan is any better than Bowling Green.

Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.  Kent State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  The Eagles are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Golden Flashes are the better team by a couple notches and they will simply want it more tonight.  Take Kent State Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bowling Green +16

Toledo clinched a share of the MAC West Division title and is locked into the MAC Championship Game on December 3rd in Detroit.  They hold the tiebreakers over Ball State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan with head-to-head victories over all three.  They have nothing to play for but pride Tuesday night when they host Bowling Green.  That's going to make it difficult for them to cover this 16-point spread with questionable motivation.

Bowling Green needs one more victory to become bowl eligible.  They are the team with more to play for sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Falcons also still have a shot to win the MAC East.  They are one game behind Ohio and play the Bobcats next week.  So they have so much to play for right now with everything still in front of them.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off their 40-6 loss to Kent State last week.  That loss was an aberration as they had won three consecutive games prior to that defeat over Miami Ohio, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.  That result has provided us with some extra line value this week against Toledo.

The Rockets would have a hard time covering this number even if they were fully motivated.  After all, they haven't been getting margin the last three weeks.  They lost outright to Buffalo 34-27 as 7-point road favorites, barely beat Eastern Michigan 27-24 as 4-point road favorites, and needed a late touchdown to beat Ball State 28-21 as 13.5-point home favorites.

Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games following two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Jason Candle is 4-14 ATS off a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Commanders/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Divisional UNDERS are hitting at a 75% clip this season.  UNDERS in general have been good, especially in primetime games, and even more so in division games.  I think it will be more of the same on Monday Night Football between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.

Most important is that this head-to-head series has been an UNDER series as well.  In fact, the Eagles and Commanders have combined for 44 or fewer points in five consecutive meetings.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  The Eagles beat the Commanders 24-8 in their first meeting this season for 32 combined points.  So there's even more familiarity here as this will be their second meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

The Commanders haven't gotten any better on offense since the beginning of the season.  They have been held to an average of just 14.9 points per game in their last seven games.  Taylor Heineke doesn't have as many negative plays as Carson Wentz, but he's not much better, either.

The improvement for the Commanders of late has come on defense as they have gotten healthier on that side of the football.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of just 17.0 points per game over the last five.  They just got star DL Chase Young back from injury, which bolsters an already strong defensive line.

The Eagles have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in allowing 299.0 yards per game and 2nd in allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They are also 4th in scoring defense at 16.9 yards per game.  The Eagles do have great offensive numbers, and their strength is clearly running the football.  But that now meets Washington's strength which is stopping the run.  They are holding opponents to 113 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground, holding opponents to 21 rushing yards per game and 0.3 per carry less than their season averages.  They rank in the Top 10 in rushing defense and will get enough stops to keep this one UNDER the total.

Washington is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after two consecutive ATS wins.  The Commanders are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games after scoring 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Chargers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The lookahead line on this game was 49ers -3.5.  The 49ers were idle on their bye week, while the Chargers covered as 2.5-point road favorites in a 20-17 win at Atlanta.  So what has changed since the lookahead line?  Nothing really.  So we are getting 3.5 points of value here, and I'm going to take that value every time.

I know the Chargers have their problems with injuries and attrition this season, but they did just have a bye two weeks ago so they are pretty fresh.  And they are still 4-1 SU in their last five games even with all these injuries.  Their lone loss came to the Seahawks and they were on a short week and off an OT game.  The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

The 49ers are getting a lot of love for their 31-14 win over the Rams last time out.  The Rams are broken on offense and the 49ers simply own them.  People are quick to forget the 49ers lost 44-23 to the Chiefs the previous week and allowed 529 yards to them.  San Francisco also lost 28-14 at Atlanta the game prior, the same team the Chargers just beat.  The Chargers only lost by 3 to the Chiefs on the road as well to give these teams some common opponents.

The 49ers are just 8-17-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan.  Justin Herbert is 7-3 ATS as a road dog, including 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or more.  The back door is going to be open for Herbert if we need it because the 49ers' weakness is defending the pass.  The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday night.

20* Cowboys/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -4

The Dallas Cowboys are showing that they are one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  Especially with what they were able to do without Dak Prescott going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  They even outgained the Eagles in that game but lost the turnover battle 3-0.

So the Cowboys are a complete team, and that has shown again the last two weeks since getting Prescott back.  He was a little rusty in his return, a 24-6 win over the Lions in which the defense led the way.  But he wasn't rusty at all in his second start back, beating the Bears 49-29 while going 21-of-27 passing for 242 yards.

Now the Cowboys should be even sharper coming off their bye week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And players have come out and said they want to win this one for Mike McCarthy.  Like him or not, McCarthy has been the single-best coach to bet on in the NFL.  He is 167-90 ATS as a head coach, including 20-7 ATS with the Cowboys.  He has a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, so he can't take all the credit, but the proof is in the pudding.

The Packers are a mess injury-wise.  They have 15 more players on the injury report.  THey just lost their best defender in LB Gary to a season-ending injury last week.  Fellow LB's Campbell and Barnes are expected to be out this week.  That leaves them very thin at the position.  They are also thin at the WR position, which is a big reason for their struggles offensively this season.  Even Aaron Rodgers has a banged up thumb.

Rodgers threw three bad interceptions last week in a 15-9 loss to the Lions last week.  If they couldn't get right against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL, they certainly aren't going to get right on offense this week.  Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 16.6 points per game and 4th allowing just 4.8 yards per play.

The Packers are getting respect for what they have done in the past, not the team they are this season.  That's a big reason they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone cover coming in backdoor fashion, trailing by 17 the Bills but getting a TD late to cover the 10.5-point spread in a 10-point defeat.  They have losses to the Lions, Commanders, Jets and Giants during this stretch.

Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games, and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 18.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  All six losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so getting 9.5 points per is some value.  Their first two wins came by 24 over the Colts and by 28 over the Chargers.  They finally won a close game last week with a 27-20 comeback win over the Raiders, and that victory will give them some confidence heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Jacksonville ranks 8th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 11th at 5.7 yards per play.  The Jaguars rank 16th in total defense at 343.4 yards per game and 14th at 5.4 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, which are numbers of a 5-4 or better team not one that is 3-6.  So the Jaguars are undervalued due to their record and catching too many points this week as a result.

Kansas City just cannot be trusted as a big favorite.  We saw that last week as they needed OT to beat the Titans with a backup QB in Willis, 20-17 as 14-point favorites.  So this is now a bad spot for the Chiefs off an OT game.  Home favorites coming off an OT home win are 23-41 ATS over the last 64 tries. They have a big divisional showdown on deck with the Chargers, making this a sandwich spot.

The Titans ran for 172 yards on the Chiefs last week, which is their weakness.  The Jaguars average 147 rushing yards pre game and 5.1 per carry, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground to keep them in this game and keep the pressure off of Trevor Lawrence.  

Kansas City is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games after gaining 450 or yards per game on average in its last three games.   The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +3

The Denver Broncos are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 3-5 record through eight games.  They could easily be 7-1 or even better as they have four losses by once score, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Their numbers also suggest they are much better than their record.

Denver has had two weeks to get ready for this game after having a bye last week, which is a huge advantage.  Players were talking about how their up-tempo approach helped big time against the Jaguars, and I look for more of it this week.  This is going to be their best offensive performance of the season as they have been lagging on that side of the ball.  But it's not like they've been completely dreadful, ranking 20th in total offense at 328.9 yards per game.

What makes the Broncos underrated is their defense, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in allowing 288.4 yards per game, 2nd allowing 16.5 points per game and 1st allowing 4.5 yards per play.  I love backing good defensive teams.  The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play on the season, which is the sign of a 5-3 or better team, not one that is 3-5.

Tennessee is the most overrated team in the NFL right now in my opinion.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Titans after going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They finally had their five-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 17-20 (OT) loss at Kansas City Sunday night.  Now I think there will be a 'hangover' effect here, letting that loss beat them twice.

This Tennessee defense was on the field for 90-plus plays and 40-plus minutes against the Chiefs, so they are going to be tired.  The new up-tempo approach of the Broncos should help them take advantage of this tired defense.  I'm not concerned whether it's a hobbled Tannehill or rookie Willis at QB for this one, because it's not going to matter.

The numbers show the Titans are grossly overvalued.  They rank dead last in total offense at 278.5 yards per game and 23rd in total defense at 363.3 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by roughly 85 yards per game, which is the sign of like a 2-6 team, not one that is 5-3 like the Titans are.  They cannot keep winning in this fashion, and injuries are really starting to pile up for them, especially defensively.

I'll gladly back the fresher, healthier, hungrier team off a bye this week in the Broncos catching points.  The Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Titans.  Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games playing on two weeks of rest.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after losing four of their last five games coming in.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +4

I love the spot for the Cleveland Browns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season.  They beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 at home on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They outgained the Bengals 440 to 229, or by 211 total yards.  That's a Cincinnati team that is crushing everyone else recently.

Cleveland is simply undervalued right now due to its 3-5 record.  They are actually outscoring their opponents on the season and outgaining them by 55 yards per game.  Four of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 9 points, so they have just been unfortunate in close games.

The good news is if they lose by 3, we cover.  The only reason we are getting 4 points with the Browns here is because of records, which show the Browns at 3-5 and the Dolphins at 6-3.  But unlike Cleveland, Miami has been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games decided by 6 points or fewer.  They only have one win by more than one score, which was the opener against New England.

The last three weeks they have been very fortunate to escape with victories over some bad teams.  They beat the Steelers by 6 at home, the Lions by 4 on the road and the Bears by 3 on the road.  The Browns are better than all three of those teams.  And they are in a favorable spot off the bye week.

I like the matchup for this Cleveland offense up against this Miami defense.  Miami allowed 252 rushing yards to the Bears last week.  Cleveland ranks 3rd in rushing at 164.6 yards per game and should be able to wear down this Miami defense with the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt.  There's a good chance TE David Njoku is back from an ankle injury this week too, though they didn't need him against Cincinnati.

This Cleveland defense is as healthy as it has been in a long time coming off the bye and should create some havoc with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney getting after Tua.  He won't have nearly as much time as he's had the last three weeks against three terrible pass rushes in the Steelers, Lions and Bears.  CB Denzel Ward returns this week from a concussion, and he is their best cover corner, which is huge having him back to go up against Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Miami) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +14

Death, taxes and Cal's Justin Wilcox as an underdog.  Wilcox is 24-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of California.  He is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Cal.  He is also 7-0 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as the coach of Cal.  I'll take these two never lost systems to the bank Saturday with Cal +14 at Oregon State.

The Golden Bears are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate this season.  All six losses came by 19 points or fewer so they were competitive in every game.  That includes a 7-point loss at Notre Dame as 13.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Washington as 7.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss at USC last week as 21.5-point dogs.  They have proven they can play with the big boys in this conference.

Now they actually take a step down in class this week against Oregon State, which has no business laying 14 points to Cal this week.  The Beavers are coming off a misleading 21-24 loss at Washington in which they should have lost by more.  They were outgained by 136 yards by the Huskies.  The only teams Oregon State have outgained by more than 83 yards this season are Boise State in Week 1, Montana State and Colorado.

California is 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Oregon State with all three losses coming by 4 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games as road dogs of 10.5 to 14 points.  Take California Saturday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.  They have lost two consecutive games to fall to 6-3 this season.  Both were misleading as they committed a combined 11 turnovers to give the games away to Louisville and NC State, both on the road.  Now they are back home for a Saturday night game and will be highly motivated to get back in the win column and hand rival UNC their first conference loss of the season.

Wake Forest is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with its lone loss coming to Clemson in overtime.  Now they face one of the luckiest teams in the country in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 8-1 this season while going 5-0 in games decided by one score.  That includes wins over App State by 2, Georgia State by 7, Miami by 3, Duke by 3 and Virginia by 3.  That was a Virginia team missing their starting RB and their top three receivers last week.  UNC's luck runs out this week.

Now the Tar Heels take a big step up in class this week as this will be their toughest test of the season.  UNC's suspect defense will finally get exposed this week, similar to when Notre Dame beat them 45-32 to hand the Tar Heels their first loss of the season.  They gave up 576 total yards to a suspect Fighting Irish offense.  The Tar Heels are allowing 31.0 points per game, 457.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and will struggle to get any stops against a Wake Forest offense that is averaging 42.8 points per game at home this season.

Wake Forest also wants revenge from two heartbreaking losses to UNC the last two seasons both on the road by 6 and 3 points.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wake Forest is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games.  UNC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following a conference game.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* Kansas State/Baylor FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -2.5

Baylor is 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS this season and very close to being undefeated.  Their three losses came to BYU (OT), Oklahoma State despite outgaining them by 78 yards and the Cowboys were off a bye week and out for revenge from the Big 12 Championship, plus a fluky 3-point loss at WVU in which they outgained the Mountaineers by 90 yards and their QB got hurt.

Baylor has since gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS after that loss to WVU and is playing its best football of the season.  The Bears beat Kansas 35-23 as 10.5-point favorites in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 149 yards.  They crushed Texas Tech 45-17 on the road then upset Oklahoma 38-35 on the road.  The Bears are now in position to get back to the Big 12 title game and will be motivated to do so by taking down Kansas State this week.

Baylor is a better team than Kansas State plus has home-field advantage, so the Bears should be more than only 2.5-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have lost to the two best teams in the conference outside of Baylor in TCU and Texas.  Baylor could very well be the best team in the conference again this season as I stated before they could easily be 9-0.

What makes Baylor so good is that they win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  That's the advantage K-State usually has over teams.  They won't have that advantage this week.  Baylor also has the better quarterback and skill position players.  The Bears average 211 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, while allowing just 127 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.

Texas just rushed for 269 yards on Kansas State last week and compiled 466 total yards.  TCU also rushed for 218 yards on Kansas State and racked up 498 total yards.  This clearly isn't a very good Kansas State defense, and their offense is very predictable.  Stop their running game and you stop Kansas State because they struggle throwing the football.  They only average 201 passing yards per game.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  This is a 7:00 EST game so it will be a raucous atmosphere Saturday night and an even bigger home-field advantage than normal for the Bears.  Roll with Baylor Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +31

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have not given up on their season under interim head coach Mickey Joseph.  They have gone 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and were competitive in all three losses.  They beat Indiana and Rutgers and only lost by 6 at Purdue as 14-point dogs and 7 at Minnesota as 15-point dogs.  They lost by 17 to Illinois as 7.5-point dogs as well.

Look for them to give Michigan more of a fight than they bargained for Saturday.  After all, Nebraska only lost 29-32 at home to Michigan last season.  That's a Michigan team that went on to make the four-team playoff.  Speaking of, the Wolverines know they just need to keep winning to make the four-team playoff again.  They don't need style points as they are already ranked No. 3 in the four-team playoff.  They just need to get to Ohio State in the final week of the season, which means get in and get out with victories against Nebraska and Illinois the next two weeks.  They aren't worried about getting margin.

Michigan is also coming off a misleading 52-17 win at Rutgers last week that has this number inflated.  They were 25.5-point favorites in that game and actually trailed at halftime.  But a string of Rutgers turnovers, punts and defensive touchdowns by Michigan had that game spiraling out of control in a hurry.  Nebraska will put up a lot more resistance and can't be 31-point dogs when Rutgers were 25.5-point dogs.  The Huskers will be the more motivated team as they are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and they want revenge from that 3-point defeat last year.

Nebraska is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previous game.  Take Nebraska Saturday.

15* Alabama/Ole Miss CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +12.5

This is the first time in a long time I can remember Alabama not having a shot to make the four-team playoff at this point in the season.  They have two losses, and a two-loss team is not getting into the four-team playoff.  That will be a hard pill to swallow for these Alabama players and head coach Nick Saban.  I question their motivation the rest the way, especially this week.

The Crimson Tide just lost 32-31 (OT) on a two-point conversion to LSU last week for their second loss.  That was the 'dream crusher' loss for the Crimson Tide, who unlike last year don't have a path to the four-team playoff now.  There usually tends to be a hangover effect the game after suffering the 'dream crusher' loss.

Now Alabama is being asked to go on the road and win by two touchdowns against Ole Miss to cover this 12.5-point spread.  It's an Ole Miss team that is well rested coming off a bye week with two full weeks to prepare for Alabama.  That is a huge advantage.  It's also an Ole Miss team sitting at 8-1 this season and with a legitimate chance to make the four-team playoff if they run the table.  The Rebels are the team with more to play for right now, and they'll be the more motivated team as a result.

Ole Miss is 5-0 at home this season with its lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  The Rebels were at least competitive with Alabama the past two seasons and are looking to get over the hump with an upset victory this time around.  This is their best chance as Alabama's defense is nowhere near as good as it has been in years' past.  They gave up 52 points to Tennessee and 32 points to LSU in two of their last three games coming in.

The Crimson Tide have always struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks.  Well, Tennessee and LSU both have dual-threats in Hooker and Daniels, and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart is in that same mold.  He has thrown for 1,912 yards with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 473 yards and 5.9 per carry this season.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 37.4 points per game, 495 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  Ole Miss is only allowing 21.6 points per game on defense, not far behind the 18.3 points per game that Alabama gives up.

Plays against road teams (Alabama) - an excellent offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Alabama.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico +22

New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long is the king of defending the triple-option having seen it throughout his career.  He is one of the best in the business, and he will have this underrated New Mexico defense ready to stop Air Force's triple-option.

This total is just 37 in some places.  So getting 22 points in a game that is expected to be low-scoring is too much.  Points become more valuable when the total is this low.  The Lobos are coming off a misleading 10-27 loss at Utah State as 14.5-point dogs which was a brutal beat for New Mexico backers.  I would know since I was on them.

New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime but got outscored 20-0 in the second half only after a defensive touchdown on a fumble in the final few minutes.  The Lobos were only outgained by 22 yards by the Aggies.  It was the third time this season they have given up a defensive touchdown at the end of the game that cost them the cover, which makes their stats misleading and those three non-offensive touchdowns count against their defense.

Even with them, New Mexico is only giving up 25.1 points per game, 344.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.  They are very good against the run, which is key here.  They give up just 136 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  They can hold Air Force in check which will allow them to cover this inflated number despite averaging just 16.0 points per game on offense.

This is a bad spot for Air Force.  They just won the Commander In Chief trophy for the first time in six years after a 13-7 win over Army last week.  They also beat Navy 13-10.  I could see this game being as ugly as those two games, which again favors New Mexico catching all these points.  Keep in mind Air Force lost 27-34 to Utah State and gave up 417 yards while getting outgained by 57 yards by Aggies which gives these teams a common opponent.

Air Force is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  The Falcons are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games after scoring 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game.  Air Force is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Lobos are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* Louisville/Clemson ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +7

Louisville is quietly 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall and getting better with each game.  The Cardinals started this run with a 34-17 win at Virginia as 2-point dogs.  They came back with a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  They followed it up with a 48-21 upset home win over Wake Forest as 3-point dogs.

But last week might have been the most impressive of them all.  Facing a clear sandwich and lookahead spot off the win against Wake Forest and with Clemson on deck, the Cardinals avoided the letdown with a 34-10 win over a James Madison team that was coming off their bye week.  They dominated the game, outgaining the Dukes 467 to 193, or by 274 total yards.  That effort shows a lot about the character of this team.

Now the Cardinals aren't about to let up as they will be even more excited to try and upset Clemson this week.  And this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  The Tigers just suffered their first loss of the season in a 14-35 loss at Notre Dame last week.  Now they almost certainly won't be making the four-team playoff even if they win out.  That's the kind of 'dream crusher' loss that can beat a team twice.  I question whether or not Clemson will be able to get back up off the mat.

You could see a loss coming for Clemson a mile away, though.  They have barely been getting by all season.  They needed OT to beat Wake Forest by 6, only beat NC State by 10, only beat FSU by 6 and only beat Syracuse by 6.  That's four games that went down to the wire.  I think this one will too.  Louisville wants revenge from a 24-30 loss to Clemson last year in which they were stopped at the goal line in the final seconds.  I think this is a one-score game again either way, so there's a ton of value catching 7 points.

AP Top 5 teams the previous week that are coming off a loss are covering just 39.3% of the time since 2010, 36.2% of the time if a favorite of -7 or higher, 31.9% of the time if they scored 37 or fewer points, and 26.3% of the time they gained under 300 yards.  Clemson was manhandled by Notre Dame giving up 263 rushing yards.  They only managed 281 yards of offense in the loss.  These trends just go to show the impact of the 'dream crusher' scenario.  There tends to be a hangover effect.

Clemson is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Clemson is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +6

I've been riding North Texas and I'm going to continue to do so this weekend.  The Mean Green are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and have been grossly undervalued.  They lost by 10 at Memphis as 13-point dogs, upset FAU by 17 as 3-point dogs, crushed LA Tech by 20 as 6.5-point favorites, only lost at UTSA by 4 as 10-point dogs, upset WKU by 27 as 10-point road dogs and crushed FIU by 38 as 21.5-point favorites.

North Texas is in control of its own destiny.  Win out and they will go to the C-USA Championship Game, so they have a lot to play for.  Now the Mean Green are catching 6 points to a UAB team that is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game Saturday.  The Blazers have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion all by one score.

You could see the problems coming with a lackluster 34-20 win as 21.5-point favorites against lowly Charlotte to start their current 0-4 ATS stretch.  They lost QB Dylan Hopkins early in a 17-20 loss at Western Kentucky.  They are upset 17-24 at FAU with a backup QB.  And last week they lost 38-44 (Double OT) to UTSA, which was their last gasp chance to stay alive in the C-USA title race.

Now the Blazers sit at 4-5 on the season and only playing for a bowl game.  This is a team that is used to being in conference title contention.  That dream crusher lost last week to UTSA will have a hangover effect here.  Plus, they are tired already playing for a 7th consecutive week, not to mention coming off a double-OT game.  And they still may be without QB Dylan Hopkins, who has been questionable each of the last two weeks and hasn't played.  They may not be in a hurry to get him back now that they are out of title contention.

Even if UAB was fully healthy, I would think there is value on North Texas catching 6 points.  They have an elite offense that averages 37.2 points per game, 503 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They are never out of any game due to their dynamic offense.  The defense has been respectable too allowing 5.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 per play, so this is at least an average stop unit.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  UAB is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Roll with North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Connecticut +14.5

I cashed on Liberty in their 21-19 upset win at Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs last week.  But now I'm going against them as this a letdown spot for the Flames off their biggest win of the season.  They did not deserve to win that game when you look at the box score.  They were outgained by 113 yards by the Razorbacks.  That misleading score is providing us extra line value to fade the Flames this week.

I want Liberty as an underdog.  I don't want them as a favorite.  Just three games back Liberty only beat Gardner Webb 21-20 as a 24.5-point favorite.  The Flames won by 18 at UMass as 22.5-point favorties the game prior.  They only beat Akron by 9 as 26-point favorites earlier this season as well.  They were in dog fights with Gardner Webb, UMass and Akron.  That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in FBS.

UConn is no longer one of the worst teams in FBS.  The Huskies have quietly gone 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS this season and are one win away from bowl eligibility.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six gmaes overall as they have consistently been undervalued.  That includes an upset over Fresno State as a 23-point underdog and an upset of Boston College as an 8-point dog.  They can hang with Liberty considering they will be the more motivated team with the Flames in this massive letdown spot.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Navy +15.5

This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 35-14 upset home win over Clemson last week to hand the Tigers their first loss of the season.  Amazingly, this has been a trend for the Fighting Irish all season as they have played to the level of their competition, and that will be the case again this week.

The Fighting Irish are 5-4 ATS this season.  Their five covers have come against the five best teams they have faced in Ohio State, UNC, BYU, Syracuse and Clemson.  Their four non-covers came against the worst four teams they faced in Marshall, Cal, Stanford and UNLV.  They lost outright as double-digits favorites to Stanford (-16.5) and Marshall (-20.5) and only beat Cal (-13.5) by 7.

Now the Fighting Irish are massive 15.5-point favorites at Navy in this clear letdown spot off the win over Clemson.  This is a Navy team that just gave Cincinnati all it wanted in a 20-10 loss as 18.5-point road dogs last week.  The Midshipmen are now looking at this as their National Championship Game this week and they'll clearly be the more motivated team.  Once again, Notre Dame will think it just has to show up to win and will play down to the level of its competition.

I love the matchup for Navy as well.  Notre Dame cannot throw the ball right now.  They only had 116 passing yards against Syracuse and 85 passing yards against Clemson in their last two games.  Well, the strength of this Navy team is their run defense.  They only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.  They just held Cincinnati to 60 rushing yards last week.

Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against a good team (60% to 75%).  Plays on neutral field underdogs (Navy) - an excellent ball control team that averages 32 or more possessions minutes per game.  The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record as they tend to play up to their level of competition.  Roll with Navy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/South Florida OVER 72

The SMU Mustangs just beat Houston 77-63 in regulation for 140 combined points last week.  That was the highest-scoring game in college football history.  It was the 3rd time in 4 games that SMU scored at least 40 points.  The lone exception was the 27 points against a very good Cincinnati defense.

The Mustangs will be able to name their number this week against a South Florida defense that has allowed at least 41 points in five of its last six games.  The Bulls rank last or second to last in almost every major category defensively.  They give up 39.9 points per game, 504.1 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They just allowed 54 points and 721 total yards to a putrid Temple offense last week.

But South Florida can score and at least somewhat keep pace with SMU to contribute to this OVER.  The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mustangs aren't very good defensively as they allow 33.7 points per game, 454 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  So this one has shootout written all over it with temps in the 80's and light wins at Raymond James Stadium Saturday.

The OVER is 12-1 in Bulls last 13 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Fresno State/UNLV OVER 59

I love the OVER in this game between Fresno State and UNLV Friday.  Both teams have season-long offensive numbers that lie because both were missing their stud starting quarterbacks for multiple games.  They have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, so that's a big deal.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium Friday night in Las Vegas.

After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the UNLV Rebels have gone 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in their last four games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force, Notre Dame and San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield returned against San Diego State last week and played well, and now he has shaken off the rust and will be even sharper this week against a much worse Fresno State defense than San Diego State's stop unit.  Brumfield is completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,438 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores in basically just six games of action.

Jake Haener is not only the best quarterback in the Mountain West, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has an NFL future.  That's why it hurt the Bulldogs when he went out in the first half of the USC game in their third game of the season.  He missed the next four games before returning against San Diego State two weeks ago.

Haener picked up where he left off, throwing for 394 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-28 win over San Diego State.  He came back with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-13 win over Hawaii last week.  Haener is now completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,575 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio in basically just 4.5 games this season.

UNLV averaged 11.7 PPG in their three games without Brumfield.  Fresno State scored 20 or fewer points in four of the five games that Haener missed.  As I stated before, that's why the season-long numbers for both teams are way off.  These two offenses are much better than the numbers suggest with Haener and Brumfield healthy for the stretch run.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 68, 67 and 83 points.  UNLV Is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulldogs last five games following a win.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.  The OVER is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 Friday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* East Carolina/Cincinnati ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +5

East Carolina has a huge rest advantage over Cincinnati that isn't being factored into this line enough.  Amazingly, the Pirates got a bye last week so they aren't on a short week like Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Bearcats had to play a physical, sloppy game against Navy in a 20-10 win over Saturday and are now on a short week.  They will also be playing for a fourth consecutive week and all three games came down to the wire, so it has taken its toll.

Cincinnati has been grossly overvalued all season after making the four-team playoff last season.  The Bearcats are 7-2 SU but 2-6-1 ATS this season.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall beating USF by 4 as 26.5-point favorites, beating SMU by 2 as 3.5-point favorites, losing outright to UCF as 2.5-point dogs and only beating Navy by 10 as 18.5-point favorites.  They have been fortunate in many close games this season, but their luck runs out against East Carolina this week.

You could make the case that East Carolina is the best team in this conference.  The Pirates are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their nine games this season but have actually outgained eight of their nine opponents.  That includes outgaining both Navy and Tulane in their two conference losses.  But they crushed UCF 34-13, and now would own the tiebreaker on both UCF and Cincinnati with a win Friday night that would have them on the inside track to make the AAC title game, where they will be out for revenge against Tulane.

East Carolina is averaging 32.6 points per game, 467 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They have a balanced offense that averages 170 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt.  This will be Cincinnati's stiffest defensive test of the season, especially on a short week with a tired defense.

Cincinnati averages 410 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense and only rushes for 135 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They have taken a big step back on offense this season and also a step back on defense.  They allow 21.0 points per game against teams that only average 26.5 points per game, so they have faced a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  East Carolina isn't far behind allowing 23.2 points per game against teams that average 26.5 points per game.  The numbers would be almost even if not for allowing 15 points in OT to Memphis.

The Pirates are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  East Carolina is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games as a road dog of 7 points or less, including 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  They pulled the 27-24 upset at BYU two weeks ago in a hostile atmosphere.  That will have them ready for Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for it.  Take East Carolina Friday.

20* Tulsa/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 61

Tulsa (3-6) and Memphis (4-5) are going through a disappointing seasons right now compared to preseason expectations.  I have to think that they both don't care as much as they would have if they were in contention.  And thus I think that plays out defensively in this game as both defenses play soft and the offensive shine in what is otherwise a meaningless game.

The forecast in Memphis is calling for 67 degrees and only 3 MPH winds Thursday night, so it is perfect conditions for a shootout.  These teams have no problem playing in shootouts to say the least.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Tulsa and Memphis have combined for at least 60 points in six of those seven meetings.  They have averaged a whopping 75.3 combined points per game in those seven meetings.

Memphis still has an elite offense this season that is averaging 33.9 points per game.  Tulsa also averages 30.2 points per game despite what has been somewhat of a down year for their offense.  But it's clear the biggest reason for both of their struggles is that they have both taken a step back defensively this season.

Indeed, Tulsa allows 33.2 points per game.  They cannot stop the run, allowing 227 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  Memphis allows 31.6 points per game on the season.  They have been particularly bad against the pass, allowing 65.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game.

The OVER is 8-1 in Memphis' nine games this season.  We've seen 63 or more combined points in seven of Memphis' nine games this season with the lone exceptions being Temple and Navy, which have the two worst offenses in the AAC.  We've seen 69 or more combined points in six of Tulsa's nine games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven home games.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MAC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan ML +110

Central Michigan kept its bowl hopes alive with a very impressive 35-22 win at Northern Illinois last week.  The Chippewas won that game despite committing four turnovers.  Their got their offense going with 452 total yards, and their defense came through by holding a potent Huskies offense to just 316 total yards.

With Buffalo and Western Michigan at home and Eastern Michigan on the road to close out the season, the Chippewas really think they can run the table.  They will keep their momentum today against Buffalo, which had its momentum halted last week.  The Bulls had their five-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 24-45 loss at Ohio.

I think the Bulls suffer a hangover effect here.  They sit at 5-4 knowing they can clinch bowl eligibility next week with a home game against MAC bottom feeder Akron.  That loss to Ohio was very concerning considering they were held to just 260 yards against a bad Ohio defense and gave up 482 total yards, getting outgained by 222 yards total.

In fact, when you look at the season-long stats, there's no way this game should be a PK.  The Chipppewas should be favored by 3 at the very least.  Central Michigan is outgaining opponents by 24 yards per game on the season.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by only 0-.1 yards per play.

Conversely, Buffalo is getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  Worse yet, the Bulls average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play despite their 5-4 record.  They are very fortunate to have this record, and that's the only reason this line is a PK is because they have a better record.  Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Buffalo, which makes these numbers even more in their favor.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.  The Chippewas are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  Bet Central Michigan on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +11.5

Ball State has quietly gone 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall to pull within one game of Toledo for first place in the MAC West.  Now they get to play the Rockets in what is essentially the MAC West Championship game already.  They are catching too many points here in a game that is likely decided by single-digits either way.

Ball State has just one loss by more than 11 points all season, and that came in the opener at Tennessee.  They are getting better with each passing game and just put together their most complete performance of the season.  They won 27-20 at Kent State as 7-point underdogs.  They outgained Kent State 450 to 408 for the game and 6.2 to 4.5 yards per play.  Holding the Golden Flashes to just 4.5 yards per play is no small feat.

Toledo is likely to be without starting QB Daquon Finn again for this game.  Backup Tucker Gleason went 15-of-27 for 238 yards and three touchdowns against a bad Eastern Michigan defense last week as they snuck out with a 27-24 victory as 4-point road favorites.  He is a big downgrade from Finn, and I would like Ball State at this line even if Finn plays.  The Rockets lost 27-34 at Buffalo the game prior and have no business being double-digit favorites for this one.

Ball State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Toledo.  Bet Ball State Tuesday.

20* Ravens/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on New Orleans +4

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 3-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-3 team or better, not a 3-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 4th in the NFL in total offense at 394.4 yards per game and 5th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Saints rank 10th in total defense at 320.8 yards per game and 9th at 5.3 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 74 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 3-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 7 takeaways, so they are -9 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict, and they won't keep turning it over at this rate.

Just two weeks ago the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen stuck with him last week.

Dalton now has the full confidence of his team and his coach after guiding the Saints to a 24-0 shutout victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  This was as dominant as any performance we have seen all season.  The Saints outgained the Raiders 367 to 183, or by 184 total yards.  They let their foot off the gas in the second half on offense.  Amazingly, the Raiders didn't even cross the 50-yard line on offense until the final couple minutes of the game.

The Baltimore Ravens are 5-3 but have the numbers of a 4-4 team.  They rank 10th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 8th at 5.9 yards per play.  They rank 24th in total defense allowing 364.3 yards per game and 21st at 5.7 yards per play.  They are actually getting outgained by 5 yards per game and outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.

Given the numbers of these two teams, New Orleans should be favored on a neutral field.  Instead, this line of +4 indicates the Ravens would be close to -7 on a neutral field.  I would be laying one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +7.  I have already laid one of my biggest bets of the season on the Saints +4, grabbing a great opening line at Circa.  I know this number has been bet down to +2.5 as I anticipated it would, but I would still lay a big bet on the Saints at that number as I think they win this game outright.

The Ravens will be missing WR Bateman and could be without TE Andrews, who was forced from last week's game with a shoulder injury.  That would be two huge losses.  Andrews leads the team with 42 receptions for 488 yards and five touchdowns.  Batemen is third on the team with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two scores.  There isn't much talent outside of these two catching the football.  The Saints will be able to focus their game plan on stopping Lamar Jackson from running the football.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - with an incredible offense that averages 6.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Finally, New Orleans has a bigger home-field advantage than it is getting credit for and it will be especially loud for this Monday Night Football showdown.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* Rams/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay ML -125

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been through injuries and the Tom Brady divorce so they have had a ton of distractions in the first half of the season.

Getting this mini-bye week after playing on Thursday against the Ravens last week should do wonders for this team.  It will give them the break mentally they need.  Brady's divorce has been finalized, so hopefully he can try and put that behind him now.  And the Bucs are getting some key players back from injury this week, including DL Akiem Hicks.  They also could get some players back in the secondary.

The good news about this dreadful start for the Bucs is that they are only one game back in their division, so the season is not lost.  I expect them to put those first eight games behind them and get back to playing up to their potential, especially this week.  Adding to their motivation is they were eliminated by the Rams in the playoffs last year, so they will be out for revenge.

The Rams have been just as dreadful as the Bucs, and their problems don't appear to be fixable unlike Tampa Bay.  The Rams are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with their three wins coming over the Falcons, Cardinals and Panthers.  All of those games were close in the 4th quarter, too.

More concerning are the four losses that have all come by double-digits.  They returned from their bye last week and promptly laid an egg in a 31-14 home loss to the 49ers.  They wanted revenge on the 49ers, and they showed no resiliency at all, completely folding in the 2nd half.  And for whatever reason Cooper Kupp was still in the game down 17 in the final couple minutes and injured his ankle.  He was hobbled badly, and though he is expected to play this week, he won't be anywhere near 100%.

While the Rams still have a solid defense, it's the offense that has been the issue.  They are too predictable relying on Kupp almost exclusively to move the football.  They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and a very banged up one at that.  Stafford just doesn't have time to throw, and he has been terrible under pressure.  Allen Robinson has been a disappointment, and fellow WR Van Jefferson is battling a knee injury.  TE Tyler Higbee suffered a neck injury last week and is questionable as well.

Tampa Bay still has decent numbers averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play.  The Rams are 31st averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and 14th giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay has the better offense, the better defense, home-field advantage, the revenge factor and the mini-bye week for the rest advantage.  All of those factors working in their favor is worth more than this current point spread, which has them at just -125 on the money line.  They should be at least -3.5, so we'll take advantage and back them at this discounted price this week.  Roll with the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

This line is an overreaction from last week's results.  Indianapolis lost outright as a home favorite to the Washington Commanders, while the New England Patriots went on the road and won and covered against the New York Jets.  So now this gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Colts, and to 'sell high' on the Patriots.

I have these teams power ranked as pretty much equals right now.  Ok, give the Patriots 3 points for home-field advantage, which is generous, and this line should be Patriots -3.  We are getting 3.5 points of value here to pull the trigger on the Colts based off of last week's results.

Well, last week the Colts gave Sam Ehlinger his first career start.  He played as well as one could expect and I think he has a bright future.  Ehlinger completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards without an interception, while also rushing for 15 yards.  But the Commanders pulled off a miracle, erasing a 9-point deficit in the final five minutes to win 17-16 behind more heroics from Taylor Heineke.

I like that Ehlinger now has a start under his belt, and he is an upgrade from Matt Ryan, who had more turnovers than any other QB in the NFL and is too stationary.  Ehlinger gives them dual-threat ability and helps mask a shaky offensive line.  The Colts fired their offensive coordinator, so Frank Reich is likely to be more involved, which is a good thing.  He will be a tremendous mentor for Ehlinger moving forward.

I also think this line is inflated due to the Colts being without Johnathan Taylor and trading away Nyheem Hines.  Taylor has been banged up all season and has been a shell of himself.  Deon Jackson will get the start, and he offers great playmaking ability in both rushing and receiving.  He has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown and 14 receptions for 108 yards in limited action.  The Colts also got Zack Moss in the Hines trade from Buffalo, and he's a great pass blocker and receiver.  Veteran Philip Lindsay has been lifted from the practice squad to help out, too.

After getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football 14-33 as 9.5-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Patriots came back and beat the Jets 22-17 on the road last week.  But their problems aren't fixed with that one win.  It was a Jets team that had just lost their top two playmakers on offense in Breece Hall and Cory Davis, so they were limited offensively.  

Yet the Jets still outgained the Patriots 387 to 288 and arguably should have won.  The difference was a pick-6 that Mac Jones threw that was called back on a roughing the passer penalty.  The roughing had nothing to do with the pick, and the Patriots were bailed out on yet another terrible throw by Jones.  He just isn't very good and seems to have INT's dropped every week.  Jones and the Patriots cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number against a team the quality of the Colts.

Yards per play and strength of schedule are two of my favorite things to look for in the NFL when comparing teams.  Well, Indianapolis is only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play this season, averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.2 yards per play on defense.  The Patriots are similar, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense to break even.  These are both basically average teams, which is why I have them power rated the same.  The Patriots have played the 25th-ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 20th.

Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. AFC East opponents.  Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cove the spread in two of its last three games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colts.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost five consecutive games while going 0-4 ATS in their last four.  But they will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face their hated division rival in the Green Bay Packers.  It's the perfect opponent for them to bring out their 'A' game against.

It's easy to see how the Lions are undervalued this week.  Consider that they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Dolphins last week, and now are identical 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.  Well, I have Miami as a Top 10 team, and Green Bay as a below average team in their current state.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week against Miami.

The Packers are getting some love because they finally ended their own 0-4 ATS skid with a fortune cover as 10.5-point dogs last week at Buffalo in a 10-point loss.  They trailed by 17 most the game and never really sniffed winning it.  Their problems aren't fixed.  The Packers are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with upset losses to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.

The problems that still exist for the Packers is that they are banged up along the offensive line and at receiver and just don't have many weapons for Aaron Rodgers.  It has been a dink and dunk offense all season as they are very predictable and easy to contain, even for a defense as bad as this Detroit stop unit.  Allen Lazard and Christian Watson may be back this week, but both are questionable, and they are still without Randall Cobb.  They lost a couple more players to injury on defense last week and three key LB's in Campbell, Smith and Barnes are all questionable.

I was on the Lions +3.5 last week and it was a tough loss because they scored 27 points in the first half and got shut out after intermission to lose by 4 to the Dolphins.  But this is a different team now than the one the previous few weeks that was banged up.  WR St. Brown and RB Swift are back healthy and playing.  Their offense is dynamic with all these playmakers, and they will never be out of this game because of it.  This Green Bay offense in its current state isn't capable of getting separation either.  This just has the makings of a gritty divisional showdown that is decided by a FG either way, so getting +3.5 with the Lions at home is a great value.

The Lions are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings at Ford Field.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in November games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dolphins/Bears OVER 45.5

This Miami offense is absolutely explosive when healthy.  That has been evident when Tua has been in the lineup.  In fact, the Dolphins are 5-0 in games in which Tua has started and finished and have scored 26.0 points per game in those five games.  They will have their way with this soft Chicago defense this week.

Chicago just gave up 49 points to the Dallas Cowboys last week.  They traded away Robert Quinn last week and now traded away Roquan Smith this week.  Those are arguably their two best players on defense and certainly their two biggest leaders in the locker room.  Chicago already had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it is going to be even worse moving forward.

But the Bears are improving rapidly on offense.  After scoring 33 points on the Patriots two weeks ago, they came back with 29 more points this week.  They are playing to their strengths, which is using Fields' legs and the one-two punch of Montgomery and Herbert on the ground.  They have rushed for at least 238 yards in three consecutive games, and Fields is getting more efficient as a passer.

Reinforcements are on the way this week for this Chicago offense as well as they traded for WR Chase Claypool of the Steelers to give Fields another weapon.  They should be able to pick apart this Miami defense, which has injuries all of their secondary.  The Lions were able to score 27 points on the Dolphins last week in the first half alone and finished with 311 passing yards.  And we saw what a mobile QB could do to the Dolphins earlier this season when Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to 38 points and 473 total yards against them, including 155 rushing.

The only thing holding me back from pulling the trigger on this total was the forecast, which called for a chance of rain and heavy winds earlier this week.  But that forecast has since cleared up and there will be no rain in Chicago, temps in the 50's and only 10-15 MPH winds.  It should be good scoring conditions for this two improving offenses and declining defenses.

Miami ranks 26th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense while Chicago ranks 22nd allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Miami ranks 3rd in the NFL averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, which is very impressive considering Tua has only started and finished five of their eight games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest/NC State OVER 54

Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 38.9 points per game this season.  But they are coming off a 10-point effort at Louisville that was due to committing eight turnovers that is keeping this total lower than it should be.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER in what has been a high-scoring head-to-head series.

This total has also been set lower than it should be because NC State has disappointed on offense this season, averaging just 26.8 points per game.  Of course, they weren't very good even before QB Devin Leary suffered a season-ending injury.  They were even worse with backup Jack Chambers.

But I think the Wolf Pack have found something in third-stringer MJ Morris.  He replaced Chambers against Virginia Tech last week and went 20-of-29 passing for 265 yards and three touchdowns in his first significant action.  I think Morris has injected some new life into this offense, and they are primed for one of their best offensive performances of the season against this suspect Wake Forest defense this week.

As I mentioned, this has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings with NC State winning 45-42 two years ago for 87 combined points.  Last year, Wake Forest returned the favor with a 45-42 victory for 87 combined points again.  Now we just need 55-plus to cash this OVER 54.  That shouldn't be a problem with the forecast looking pretty good Saturday with temperatures in the 70's and 4 MPH winds and only a slight chance of rain.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +17.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS this season.  They have been competitive even in losses.  They hung with Washington in a 39-49 loss as 14.5-point road dogs three weeks ago.  Then they returned from their bye and gave USC a run for its money, losing 37-45 as 14-point home dogs.  Now the Wildcats will hang with Utah as 17.5-point road dogs this week.

Arizona is never out of any game due to their explosive offense.  The Wildcats are scoring 32.3 points per game, averaging 479 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play.  Those are even better numbers than Utah this season.  They do have a suspect defense, but Utah has also taken a step back defensively this season.

The Utes have so many injuries right now to where they cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  Starting QB Cam Rising was a late scratch against Washington State last week, and the Utes were fortunate to win that game 21-17.  Star TE Dalton Kincaid suffered a shoulder injury in that game and was seen in a sling on the sidelines late.  It's unlikely he will play this week.  They are also down to a third-string RB.

The good news is I like the Wildcats regardless of whether or not any of these guys play.  But if they are out it would be an added bonus.  Rising is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and six scores.  Kincaid leads the team in receiving with 46 receptions for 614 yards and seven scores.  Tavion Thomas leads the team in rushing with 414 yards and six scores.  All three are questionable for this contest.

The Wildcats are never going to be out of this game with Jayden de Laura at quarterback.  He is quietly having one of the best seasons in all of college football.  He is completing 62.9% of his passes for 2,654 yards with a 22-to-8 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 125 yards and a score.  

Last year, Utah only beat Arizona 38-29 as 23.5-point road favorites.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on James Madison +7.5

James Madison opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with four wins by 22 or more points and an upset win at Appalachian State.  But they have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall, and it's time to jump back on them.  They committed nine turnovers in the losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall, which was the difference.

Now the Dukes will regroup and have had two full weeks to prepare for Louisville.  They will relish in this opportunity to face a Power 5 team and this is basically their National Championship Game since they can't qualify for a bowl in their first season as an FBS school.

The Dukes lost QB Todd Canteio in their loss to Georgia Southern.  He sat out the loss to Marshall and backup Billy Atkins threw four interceptions to cost them the game.  Well, Canteio should be back this week especially now that he has had an extra week to recover with the bye.

The Dukes have elite numbers this season.  They average 481 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 18 points per game, outgaining them by 186 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.4 yards per play.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Louisville.  The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games and I have backed them in their last two victories over Pittsburgh and Wake Forest.  Of course, all three of those teams handed Louisville victories on a silver platter by committing a combined 15 turnovers.  So Louisville is +11 in turnovers in its last three games, which is unsustainable.  Wake Forest committed eight alone against them last week.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Louisville, too.  They are coming off that upset win against a ranked Wake Forest team, and now they have a Top 10 showdown with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat James Madison in this non-conference game as they are to beat teams like Wake Forest and Clemson.

Plays on road teams (James Madison) - with an excellent offense that averages 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  Coming off their worst offensive performance of the season with a backup QB and off a bye week, this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Dukes this week.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2.5

I love the spot for the Texas Longhorns this week.  They are coming off their bye week and still have their sights set on a Big 12 title despite being 5-3 this season.  They are very close to being 8-0 as their three losses came by 1 to Alabama, by 3 to Texas Tech and by 7 to Oklahoma State.  They arguably should have won all three games.

The Longhorns have elite numbers this season despite facing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and only allowing 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  They still have a chance to win the Big 12 title with a win this week against Kansas State and a win next week against TCU.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State off their 48-0 win over Okahoma State last week where everything went their way.  The Wildcats have faced the easier schedule and do have great numbers with 6.3 yards per play on offense and 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But their numbers still are far behind those of Texas.

I love the matchup for Texas this week.  The key to stopping the Wildcats is stopping their rushing attack, which averages 228 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry.  The strength of this Texas defense is stopping the run as they rank Top 20 in the country.  They allow just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry this season.

TCU racked up 38 points and nearly 500 total yards on this Kansas State defense two weeks ago.  Texas can do the same.  The Longhorns average 36.4 points per game and 446 yards per game.  They have great balance with 184 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.

Steve Sarkisian is 19-8 ATS following a road loss as a head coach.  Sarkisian is 19-6 ATS after allowing 37 or more points last game as a head coach.  Sarkisian has had two weeks to prepare to stop this Kansas State rushing attack, and I expect he has put it to good use.  The Longhorns are the better team in the better spot, so laying only 2.5 points with them this week is a discount.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +6.5

I love the spot for the UNLV Rebels this week.  After jumping out to a surprising 4-1 start this season with their lone loss coming by 6 points at Cal, the Rebels have gone 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  A big step up in class has been a big reason for their struggles with losses to San Jose State, Air Force and Notre Dame.  Now they take a step back down in class this week against San Diego State.

But the biggest reason for their struggles was the injury to QB Doug Brumfield.  He got injured in the first quarter of that loss to San Jose State.  So he has basically missed 11 straight quarters, which just so happen to be UNLV's worst stretch of football this season.  Brumfield is completing 68.4% of his passes for 1,231 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 137 yards and five scores in basically just five games of action.

Reinforcements are on the way for UNLV this week coming off a bye, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for San Diego State.  On Monday, Rebels coach Marcus Arroyo announced that Brumfield will return to practice this week and was listed as UNLV's starter on the depth chart.

"We spent last week, our bye week, really trying to get healthy and recharge our batteries," Arroyo said.  "Having him on the field gives us that swag that we need when we play as an offense," junior center Leif Fautanu said. "Having him on the field at practice just gives everyone more motivation."

While the spot is a great one for UNLV off a bye and getting Brumfield back, the spot is a terrible one for San Diego State.  They are coming off a 28-32 loss at Fresno State in which they allowed two touchdowns in a span of 13 seconds to blow the game.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice, especially for an Aztecs team that is having a down year already at 4-4 this season.

UNLV still has impressive season-long numbers despite playing three games without Brumfield, and they would be even better had he not basically missed three games.  They are gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.  Compare that to San Diego State, which averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play.

San Diego State's four wins have come over Nevada, Hawaii (by 2), Toledo (by 3) and Idaho State.  They have failed every time they have taken a step up in class.  They cannot be trusted to win this game by a touchdown or more this week.

The Rebels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games.  Take UNLV Saturday.

20* Liberty/Arkansas Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Liberty +13.5

Hugh Freeze is the best covering coach in all of college football.  He is 74-45 ATS in all games as a head coach.  What he has done at Liberty the last three years is nothing short of remarkable.  He has gone 25-7 SU in 32 games at Liberty over the last three seasons.  That includes 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming at Wake Forest by a single points, 37-36.

What makes this season so remarkable is that the Flames have gone through four different starting quarterbacks.  It hasn't mattered who has been under center.  Johnathan Bennett has taken over the reigns and ran with the job.  He just completed 24-of-29 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 46 yards on eight carries in a 41-14 upset win over BYU last time out.

Now the Flames have had two full weeks to get ready for Arkansas.  They are looking at this game against an SEC opponent as their National Championship Game.  Arkansas is coming off a win at Auburn, which led the firing of Auburn's head coach.  They have an even bigger game on deck against LSU.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Razorbacks.  They won't be motivated enough to win this game by two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

In fact, Liberty has just 3 losses by more than 13 points in their last 43 games under Hugh Freeze.  That makes for a 40-3 system backing the Flames pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  They do have a common opponent in BYU, which Arkansas beat by 17 while Liberty beat the Cougars by 27.  Liberty outgained BYU by 289 yards while Arkansas outgained them by 173 yards.

Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  The Razorbacks are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Liberty Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Georgia CBS No-Brainer on Tennessee +9

A few years back nobody gave LSU a chance and they went on to win the national title.  That feels the same with this Tennessee team.  The Vols also have eerily similar numbers to that Tigers team.  They have been grossly undervalued all season, and they continue to be this week catching more than a touchdown to Georgia.

The Vols beat LSU by 27 on the road, upset Alabama at home and crushed Kentucky 44-6 last week in what was perceived to be a lookahead spot with Georgia on deck.  They way they handled that game holding the Wildcats to just 206 total yards and outgaining them by 216 yards showed a lot about the character of this team.  They want to win a National Championship and aren't letting anything get in their way.

The Vols average 49.4 points, 553 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Hendon Hooker now has a 52-to-4 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons.  He is every bit as good as Joe Burrow was in college, but he doesn't get the credit that Burrow did.  He is also more of a dual-threat than Burrow was, which makes him so tough to stop.  Amazingly, the Vols have done this without two of their biggest weapons for half the season, and both are back healthy on offense now.

While the offense gets all the headlines, this Tennessee defense has been just as big a factor.  They are holding opponents to just 21.0 points per game, 394 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  And they have faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses than Georgia has.  This will easily be the toughest test of the season for this Georgia defense.  After all, Tennessee scored 52 points on Alabama's vaunted defense.

Georgia did beat Oregon in the opener, but that was a way different Oregon team than the one we are seeing today.  The last seven wins have come against such a soft schedule of Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida.  Not one of those teams is a shoe-in to even make a bowl game.  And they only beat Kent State by 17 as 45-point favorites and Missouri by 4 as 31-point favorites, so they are clearly vulnerable.

Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Vols are 7-1 ATS this season.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after gaining 525 or more yards per game in their last three games against an opponent that outgained their last opponent by 125 or more yards are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis +3.5

I love the spot for the Memphis Tigers this week.  They are coming off a bye week and it came at the perfect time as they were reeling from three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  Now they can regroup and get back up off the mat to face the favorite to win the AAC in UCF this week.

Houston pulled a miracle three games ago to beat Memphis, scoring two touchdowns in the final two minutes to win 33-32.  Memphis then lost in quadruple OT at ECU 45-47 despite outgaining them by 18 yards.  And last time out they lost 28-38 at Tulane despite outgaining them by 71 yards.  Memphis could easily be 7-1 instead of 4-4, and if they were they wouldn't be catching 3.5 points to UCF at home off a buy week.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Tigers as a result.

The spot is a terrible one for UCF.  They are in the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot this week.  They are coming off a huge 25-21 win over Cincinnati last week, the favorite coming into the season to win the AAC after making the four-team playoff last year.  Now they have an even bigger game at Tulane on deck next week that could decide the conference.  That makes this a letdown and sandwich spot if I've ever seen one.

UCF has benefited from a home-heavy schedule playing six of their first eight games at home.  They finish with three of four on the road.  They clearly aren't as good on the road as they did beat FAU before falling 34-13 at East Carolina.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Memphis took ECU to OT on the road and should have won.

I love the matchup for Memphis.  The Tigers are a pass-heavy team that averages 285 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  The weakness of UCF is their pass D as they have allowed 298 or more passing yards in four of their last five games.  They allowed 314 passing yards to Georgia Tech, 363 to SMU, 234 to lowly Temple, 311 to ECU and 298 to Cincinnati.

UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was forced from the Cincinnati game and may not play this week.  He is their leading rusher with 518 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.8 per carry on the ground.  The Knights won't be nearly as balanced offensively if he can't go this week.  But I like Memphis either way in this one.  They have a huge home-field advantage and are 3-1 at home this season with the lone setback being that fluke 1-point loss to Houston.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  Memphis 9-1 ATS following three consecutive conference losses.  The KNicks are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 conference games.  The Tigers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games following a bye week.  The home team is 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico +16.5

Utah State has been way overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last season.  They have opened 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in 2022 to follow up their title.  QB Logan Bonner lost all of his weapons from that team, and then Bonner went down with a season-ending injury.  The Aggies are down to a 4th string QB right now.  They continue to be overvalued as 16.5-point favorites over New Mexico this week.

But the main reason for this handicap is the forecast.  There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday in Logan, Utah with 20 MPH winds expected.  That means this game is going to be played on the ground, and points are going to be at a premium.  The ground game favors New Mexico in this one because they cannot throw the ball effectively.

New Mexico has rushed for 128 yards per game this season and will be able to move the ball on the ground against a Utah State defense that allows 205 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Aggies just allowed 330 rushing yards to Wyoming last time out and 265 to Air Force two games back.

Conversely, New Mexico has the better defense, especially against the run.  The Lobos only allow 24.9 points per game, 352 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  They are giving up just 136 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.  They will get enough stops to stay within this number Saturday.  Four of their six losses this season have come by 17 points or fewer.

Utah State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  Utah State's three wins this season have come against UConn by 11, Air Force by 7 and Colorado State by 4.  They haven't won by this kind of margin yet, and they aren't equipped to given their QB situation and the forecast.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UAB ML +105

The UAB Blazers are so much better than their 4-4 record would indicate.  Two of their losses were due to losing starting QB Dylan Hopkins, who should be back this week.  He means everything to this offense, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,233 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 115 yards and two scores.

The Blazers have the numbers of a 7-1 team rather than a 4-4 team.  They three games they were outgained came by 35 yards to Liberty, by 5 yards to Georgia Southern and by 28 yards to Western Kentucky.  They still outgained FAU by 113 yards last week despite losing.  They average 438 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while giving up just 329 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 109 yards per game and 1.9 yards per play, which are elite numbers.

UTSA is 6-2 but only outgaining opponents by 71 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  UAB is the better team, yet they are the home underdog in this game due to the records of these teams.  The Blazers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the defending C-USA champs this week.  They are looking at this game as their National Championship.

UAB also wants revenge from a 31-34 road loss at UTSA as 3.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained UTSA 474 to 375 in  that game, or by 99 yards.  Two years ago they won 21-13 at home, and home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.

UAB is 38-12 ATS in its last 50 games following a two-game road trip.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following two consecutive road losses.  UAB is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games as a home underdog.  The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  Take UAB on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Middle Tennessee -2

I love the spot for Middle Tennessee this week.  They just had a bye two weeks ago before winning 24-13 at UTEP last week.  They outgained the Miners by 86 yards in that game and improved to 4-4 on the season.  They have an excellent chance to make a bowl game and a much better outlook than Louisiana Tech right now.

The Bulldogs sit at 2-6 this season after back-to-back OT losses to Rice (41-42) and Florida International (34-42).  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after those two defeats that are going to surely cost them a bowl game.  Their outlook the rest of the season is gloomy, and I find it hard to see them putting much effort forth the rest the season, but especially this week.

This is a tired Louisiana Tech team as it is playing four consecutive shootouts the last four weeks against UTEP, North Texas, Rice and FIU.  They keep getting in shootouts because they cannot stop anyone.  The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 39.6 points per game, 476.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.

And that's the difference between these two teams. Middle Tennessee acutally played defense.  They are holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.7 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.2 yards per play below their season averages.  They will score at will on this LA Tech defense, while also getting enough stops to win this game.

These teams have a common opponent in UTEP, and that's important because both teams were coming off a bye week when they faced the Miners.  Middle Tennessee put up 378 yards and 6.1 yards per play on UTEP, while allowing 292 yards and 4.2 yards per play.  The Blue Raiders outgained the Miners by 86 yards and 1.9 yards per play.  LA Tech gained 380 yards and 6.3 per play while giving up 501 yards and 5.6 per play to UTEP.  They were outgained by 121 yards by the Miners.

Plays against home underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Blue Raiders are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulldogs are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  Bet Middle Tennessee Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Washington ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5

This play is mostly due to the weather expected in Washington Friday night.  There is a 100% chance of rain with winds approaching 20 MPH.  That sets this up for an UNDER game with points at a premium.  Both teams will be forced to try to move the football on the ground in this one, which will keep the clock moving as well.

Oregon State already has a run-heavy approach averaging 39 rush attempts per game compared to just 27 passing.  So they will be in their comfort zone.  The problem is they'll be up against one of the best run defenses in the Pac-12.  Washington only allows 110 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, holding opponents to 34 rushing yards per game and 1.0 per carry less than their season averages.  So Oregon State's offensive strength is also Washington's defensive strength.

Washington averages 44 pass attempts per game and only 32 rushing attempts.  That's probably because they are a poor rushing offense anyway, averaging just 130 yards per game and 4.0 per carry, averaging 33 rushing yards per game and 0.5 per carry less than their opponents typically allow.  They will have to run the ball, and they will be up against a stout Oregon State run defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game.  The Beavers are also pretty good against the pass, holding opponents to 55.6% completions and 231 passing yards per game.  They held USC's high-powered attack to just 17 points and 359 total yards a few weeks ago.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Three straight and four of the last five meetings between Washington and Oregon State have seen 51 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 51, 48, 26 and 49 points in four of the five meetings.  It should be more of the same in this 2022 meeting, especially because of the weather and both teams' defensive strengths being the strengths of the opposing offenses.

Both teams are coming off a bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare to shut down these offenses.  That extra time favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Huskies last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 points (Washington) - after winning two of its last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 75-35 (68.2%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Eagles/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia -13.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a freight train.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS with three wins by 16 or more points.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and by 1.1 yards per play.  They made some moves prior to the deadline to get even stronger.  And they are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now.

Now the Eagles face the worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans.  Houston is getting outgained by 115 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play.  No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks wants traded and may not play.  No. 2 receiver Nico Collins is out with a groin injury.  And their best defensive player in DL Maliek Collins is out for this game.  And that's just the start of it as they have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL.

Last week the Texans knew the Titans were going to run the football and they still couldn't stop it.  Tennessee went with backup Malik Willis instead of Ryan Tannehill and he threw 10 times.  The Titans ran it 45 times for 314 yards on this soft Houston run defense.  Well, now they are going to face another elite rushing offense in the Eagles who average 150 rushing yards per game.  But they are dynamic and multi-dimensional unlike Tennessee.  They also throw for 246 yards per game.

The Eagles are going to be able to move the football at will and continue to score in this game, and the Texans just aren't going to be able to catch up.  They average just 16.6 points per game and 289 yards per game on offense.  Davis Mills has taken a step back this year, and it's not getting any easier for him this week without WR Collins and possibly Cooks.  Even if Cooks plays he probably won't be fully into this game.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Eagles Thursday.

20* Appalachian State/Coastal Carolina ESPN No-Brainer on Appalachian State -3

Appalachian State has played the much tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and that's the big difference in their records this season.  The Mountaineers are 5-3 this season and underrated because of it.  Their three losses came to UNC by 2, James Madison by 4 and Texas State by 12 in a misleading final in which they outgained the Bobcats by 102 yards.

The Mountaineers have come back with two dominant efforts since that defeat.  They beat Georgia State 42-17 as a 9.5-point favorite while outgaining them by 165 yards and holding them to a season low in yardage.  Then they crushed Robert Morris 42-3 and outgained them by 364 yards while holding them to a season low in total yards.  Coming off an easy effort their, the Mountaineers should still be fresh on this short week, which is a big advantage.

Coastal Carolina is 7-1 but nowhere near as good as that record.  The seven wins have come against Army, Gardner Webb, Buffalo, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, ULM and Marshall.  Amazingly, six of the seven victories came by 12 points or fewer, so they were all competitive games against suspect competition.  Two games ago they lost 21-49 outright to Old Dominion while allowing 525 total yards to the Monarchs, who don't have a very good offense.

And that's the difference in this game.  One team can get stops while the other one can't.  Appalachian State has the much better defense, allowing just 310 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play against teams that average 357 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Coastal Carolina allows 413 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play against teams that only average 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Appalachian State is allowing 1.2 yards per play less than Coastal Carolina on defense despite facing the tougher schedule.

These teams are pretty even offensively, but the Mountaineers have the better balance and are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Appalachian State is averaging 36.9 points per game, 460 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play while Coastal Carolina is averaging 31.9 points per game, 435 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.

Coastal Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  The Mountaineers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Chanticleers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win.  They'll get exposed tonight against the best team they have faced all season in Appalachian State.  This is probably the fourth-best team that the Mountaineers have faced as I would have UNC, James Madison and Texas A&M all favored over Coastal.  Bet Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CMU/NIU MAC ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -5.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Northern Illinois Huskies.  They won the MAC last year and brought back 18 starters, so expectations were high.  After winning all the close games last year, they have lost all the close games this year with a 2-6 start.  This is much better than a 2-6 team.

The Huskies have had to go through three different starting quarterbacks due to injury.  After playing third-stringer Lynch against Ohio last time out, they should get one of their top two back in either Lombardi or Hampton.  They are coming off a bye week to get these guys healthy.  And looking at the schedule, they still have a great shot to make a bowl by winning out with EMU, WMU, Miami Ohio and Akron to close the season with three of those games at home.  We should get their best effort here.

Northern Illinois has outgained all four opponents in MAC play despite being 1-3 SU.  They are gaining 437 yards per game on offense and only allowing 353 yards per game on defense.  I still believe they are one of the best teams in the MAC, if not the best.  That's why they are undervalued right now due to their record.

Central Michigan is every bit as bad as its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Chippewas are 1-3 in MAC play and getting outgained 317 to 338.3 yards per game.  They are averaging only 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.1 yards per play on defense.  And they have faced an easy MAC schedule of Bowling Green, Akron, Ball State and Toledo.  Their lone win came against Akron 28-21 as 12.5-point favorites.  They only outgained the Zips by 50 yards.

This Central Michigan offense is broken.  The Chippewas have been held to 18 points or fewer in four of their last five games with the lone exception being Akron.  Star RB Lew Nicholls sate out last game and is questionable to return this week.  The QB play has been poor, and the running game also hasn't been good even with Nicholls healthy.  The Chippewas are averaging just 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.

Northern Illinois is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after having lost three of its last four games.  The Huskies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game.  The Chippewas are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

20* Buffalo/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

Two terrible defensive teams and two solid offenses square off tonight when the Buffalo Bulls visit the Ohio Bobcats in this MAC showdown Tuesday night.  Expect a shootout to kick off MACtion in this contest tonight.

Ohio allows 34.4 points per game, 510 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  The Bobcats are allowing 90 yards per game more than their opponents average on offense this season.  They are also giving up 6.9 yards per play against teams that only average 6.0 yards per play.

Buffalo is getting credit for decent defensive numbers, but they have played a poor schedule of opposing offenses this season.  The Bulls are allowing 18 yards per game more than their opponents average.  They are also allowing 6.1 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play.  This is not a good defense.

Buffalo does have a good offense that averages 30.9 points per game this season and has scored 34 or more points in three consecutive games coming in.  Ohio averages 32.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Bobcats are averaging 39 points per game in their last five games.

The OVER is 12-3 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 8-1 in Bulls last nine games following a bye week.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bobcats last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last six home games.  The OVER is 7-2 in Bobcats last nine Tuesday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati -3

Note: I took the Bengals at -3 before the news came out that Ja'Marr Chase would be out for the Bengals.  I thought this line should have been higher than 3.  I still think we are getting a good number at -3 without him, but there's less of an edge here now.

The good news is the Bengals are still loaded with weapons for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Joe Burrow.  Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are both No. 2 receivers in this league.  They have combined for 60 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns.  Hayden Hurst also has 29 receptions for 226 yards and two scores.  And Joe Mixon has 587 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage.  They're going to be just fine, at least for this one game.

The Bengals have really gotten their offense going the last couple weeks by going to the shotgun on 90% of snaps.  That's where Burrow thrives, and they are now one of the most pass-happy teams in the league.  They scored 30 points against the Saints two weeks ago before crushing Atlanta 35-17 last week with 537 total yards.  They have scored 27 or more points in four of their last five games while going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the process.

The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  That includes a 38-15 loss to the Patriots in their last home game.  Their offense has really been held in check of late in averaging 20.8 points per game in their last four games.  Now they will be without one of Jacoby Brissett's favorite weapons in TE David Njoku, who has 34 receptions for 418 yards and one touchdown this season.  

That leaves Amari Cooper as the only reliable weapon outside for Brissett.  I just can't see them being able to match the Bengals score for score with this lackluster offense, especially since they are facing an underrated Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in scoring at 18.9 points per game, 10th in total defense at 321.1 yards per game and 9th in allowing 5.2 yards per play.

The Browns also have injury concerns on defense.  Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are all questionable.  Fellow cornerbacks Greg Newsome II and Greedy Williams are also questionable.  This is a poor Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in scoring allowing 26.8 points per game and 20th allowing 5.7 yards per play.  

The Browns also rank 24th in allowing 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  That's really bad when you consider the quarterbacks they have faced in Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Bailey Zappe, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert.  In fact, the Browns have faced the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL to this point overall and are still just 2-5 on the season.

The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.5 or more yards per carry.  The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive ATS victories.  The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a road loss.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after playing its last game on the road.  These last four trends combine for a 28-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

20* Packers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +11.5

For starters, Aaron Rodgers hasn't been more than 8.5-point underdog in his career.  That's 234 starts without being a double-digit dog.  That fact alone shows you this is a 'buy low' spot on the Packers, and we'll do just.  We'll back a Packers team that has lost three straight and failed to cover four in a row.

Rodgers is better when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder, and he will be in that mindset this week.  Everyone is counting the Packers out playing the Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.  He will rally the troops and put forth the best effort of the season.  The Packers have had a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they'll step it up this week.

I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills.  They are coming off their bye week, but they were feeling fat and happy the last two weeks after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-20 two weeks back.  That is the game they had circled all offseason, getting revenge on a Chiefs team that knocked them out of the playoffs for a second consecutive season.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Packers as they were to beat the Chiefs.

We've seen the Bills let teams hang around this season.  They lost 19-21 at Miami, needed a last-second FG to beat the Ravens 23-20 and beat the Chiefs 24-20.  They are beatable, and at the very least the Packers can keep this game within single-digits with the proper game plan.  

The strength of their team this year is their running game and Aaron Jones, and I expect the Packers to embrace is this week and feed the horse.  The weakness of the Bills is the interior of their defense as they can be run on.  So controlling the clock with the running game and short passes to Jones out of the backfield is a recipe for success here.  

I know the Packers will be without Allen Lazard, but they should get WR Christian Watson back this week, and Sammy Watkins is healthy as well.  Their best defender in LB Rashan Gary is upgraded to probable as well.  They are hopeful to have both T Bakhtiari and G Jenkins in the lineup as both have missed time over the past couple seasons.  The Bills will be without T Brown, CB White and S Hyde for this one.

The actual strength of the Packers this season is their defense, which allows 20.9 points per game while ranking 7th in total defense at 308.4 yards per game.  They can get enough stops here to be able to hang around while the offense methodically moves the ball down the field and keeps Buffalo's offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against home teams (Buffalo) - outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per game, after gaining 7 or more yards per pass attempt in two consecutive games are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Packers Sunday Night.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have lost four consecutive games including two straight blowout losses to the Patriots 29-0 and the Cowboys 24-6.  But they were far from healthy in those last two games, and they are getting a lot of players back this week.  

The Lions were going in to take a 13-10 lead against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter but fumbled at the 1-yard line.  That completely changed the game.  They were only outgained by 18 yards by the Cowboys, so it was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They came through with their best defensive performance of the season in limiting a potent Dallas attack to just 330 total yards.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Lions this week.  They will be getting RB DeAndre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back from injury.  TE TJ Hockenseon and WR Josh Reynolds are healthy, as are T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnew, who are all listed as probable.  Swift rushed for 231 yards and averaged 8.6 yards per carry in the first three games this season.  St. Brown has 28 receptions for 275 yards and three scores in basically just four games of action.  Reynolds and Hockenson have also been huge for this team, combining for 47 receptions, 658 yards and five touchdowns.

The Dolphins have six of their top eight int he secondary on the injury report.  They will be without S Brandon Jones, who leads the team with 49 tackles and also has two sacks.  The Lions are going to be able to shred their defense this week.  Tua did not look great in his return to the lineup last week, leading the Dolphins to just 16 points against the Steelers.  He should have more success this week, but I liked what I saw from this Detroit defense last week.  Either way, the Dolphins shouldn't be 3.5-point favorites on the road against anyone.

The Lions are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Dolphins are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight October games.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game.  Detroit is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Saints +1.5

The New Orleans Saints look like the best 2-5 or worse team in the NFL right now.  That makes this a great opportunity to 'buy low' on them as home underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders this week.  The Saints have the numbers of a 5-2 team, not a 2-5 team.

New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 398.3 yards per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Saints rank 14th in total defense at 340.4 yards per game and 18th at 5.6 yards per play allowed.  So they are actually outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play, which are numbers of an elite team, not one that is 2-5 on the season.

The Saints have not had turnover luck on their side this season.  They have committed 16 turnovers while getting only 6 takeaways, so they are -10 in turnovers.  That gives us the opportunity to 'buy low' on this team because turnovers are hard to predict.

Just last week the Saints gave the game away with two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in the final two minutes before halftime against the Cardinals.  They still nearly won that game as they gained 494 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 168 yards.  Those two picks weren't actually Andy Dalton's fault, and I like the fact that Dennis Allen is sticking with him this week.  They have extra prep time after playing the Cardinals last Thursday, which is a bonus too.

While the Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Cardinals, the Raiders are coming off a misleading 38-20 win over the Texans.  They actually gave up 404 yards to a terrible Houston offense and were outgained in that game.  But they got a 73-yard interception return for a TD late in the game that put it away, which was basically a 14-point swing.

The Raiders can't be trusted as road favorites here because they have a leaky defense.  They rank 26th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game, 24th in total defense at 366.7 yards per game and 23rd in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They also had a flu bug go through their team this week that has been a big distraction and caused players to miss practice.  That magnifies the rest and preparation advantage the Saints have had after playing last Thursday and getting 10 days to prepare for this game.

The Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Las Vegas is 0-3 SU on the road this season.  Plays against road favorites (Las Vegas) - in a game involving two teams that allow 335 to 370 yards per game defensively, after gaining 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots ML -130

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the New England Patriots.  They were just upset 33-14 on Monday Night Football as 8.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27.5 points.  They were embarrassed, and now they'll come back highly motivated to beat a division opponent here in the New York Jets, especially since they currently reside in last place in the division.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jets, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite terrible QB play from Zach Wilson.  A great defense and RB Breece Hall and WR Cory Davis have masked Wilson's QB play.  Well, now Hall and Davis are out, so they are down their two biggest weapons on offense.  They aren't going to be able to overcome it.

The Jets have benefited from playing a rookie or backup QB in three of their four wins during this streak.  They beat Brett Rypien and the Broncos last week, Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins and a combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, who combined for four interceptions.  When they faced a real team with a legit QB, they lost by 15 to the Ravens and lost by 15 to the Bengals.

The Jets also lost their best offensive linemen in Alijah Vera-Tucker to an injury last week, and he's out along with Davis and Hall.  Hall has 681 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns and is irreplaceable.  So is Davis, who has 19 receptions for 351 yards and two scores to lead the team.  Wilson is completing just 57.4% of his passes with a 1-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.

I like that the Patriots have announced they are going with Mac Jones moving forward.  This should put some stability into the offense, and he should be another week healthy after returning last week against the Bears before getting replaced by Zappe.  He is the more talented QB with the bigger upside, and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this week.

The Patriots own the Jets, going 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings with their last loss to them in 2015.  And we just need them to win straight up here.  Bill Belichick is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 21-plus points in his previous game as the coach of the Patriots.  New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Jets' luck runs out this week against a better, pissed off New England team.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their bye week, and I think that's being factored too much into this line.  Sometimes bye weeks are great for teams to regroup, but the Eagles didn't need to regroup.  Also, the Eagles have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 3rd-toughest.  So the numbers for both teams up to this point are misleading.

The Eagles are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0 this season.  So if anything, the bye week puts a halt to their momentum.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the Cowboys going into the bye week, so they are clearly feeling fat and happy right now and not as motivated as most teams would be going into a bye week.  I think this bye week could actually be a bad thing for the Eagles.

Either way, I think the Steelers have the goods to be able to hang with the Eagles Sunday.  After upsetting the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Steelers hung tough with the Miami Dolphins last week in a 16-10 road loss.  They had a chance to win that game late as their defense kept them in it.  I think Kenny Pickett is going to keep getting better with each passing start, and he could be primed for his best performance of the season this week.

The Eagles aren't really blowing anyone out.  They have just two of their six wins by double-digits.  Their last three games were all decided by 9 points or fewer.  After beating the Jaguars by 8 at home, they only beat the Cardinals by 3 on the road and were actually outgained in that game.  Their 26-17 win over the Cowboys last time out was misleading as their offense was held to 268 total yards, but they benefitted from being +3 in turnovers.

A big reason the Eagles are 6-0 is due to turnover luck.  They are +12 in turnovers through six games.  I have a hard time trusting those teams that have had the turnover luck on their side.  The Steelers have been getting healthier defensively in recent weeks and will have the proper game plan to slow down Jalen Hurts and his dual-threat ability.  No team has had more success stopping Lamar Jackson in recent seasons than the Steelers, so they know how to defend running quarterbacks.

Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games in the month of October.  The Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford +17

The UCLA Bruins just suffered their 'dream crusher' loss to Oregon last week.  The Bruins entered that game 6-0 with national championship aspirations.  But the 45-30 loss crushed their dreams, and now there will be a hangover effect this week.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat following that defeat, and they certainly won't have their 'A' game, which is what it would take to cover this massive 17-point spread.

Stanford has turned around their season with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State.  They had lost four straight prior to that, but all four losses came by 18 points or fewer, including losses to USC and Oregon, which are arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12.  They lost to Oregon by 18 while UCLA lost to them by 15, both on the road, to give these teams a common opponent.

UCLA has beaten Stanford by more than 17 points just once in the last 15 meetings.  That's a 14-1 system backing the Cardinal pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Cardinal are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six trips to UCLA.  

The head-to-head history suggests this line is too big.  The hangover spot for the Bruins suggests this line is too big.  And finally, Stanford has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country to this point, while UCLA has played the 66th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule makes the Cardinal a must bet this week.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +23

This is too many points for this rivalry game between Michigan State and Michigan.  The Spartans always take this game more seriously than the Wolverines as it's a little brother vs. big brother situation.  And we've seen that play out with the Spartans consistently pulling off upsets and keeping games a lot closer than the spread.

In fact, Michigan has just one win by more than 18 points in its last 19 meetings with Michigan State.  That makes for an 18-1 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 23-point spread.  While the Wolverines are clearly the better team again this year, they have no business being a 23-point favorite when you look at the head-to-head history.

I also like the fact that Michigan State is coming off its most impressive performance of the season.  The Spartans upset Wisconsin 34-28 as 7-point home underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Spartans outgained the Badgers 389 to 283, or by 106 total yards.  That win looks even better now when you consider Wisconsin crushed Northwestern 42-7 and Purdue 35-24 sandwiched around that loss to Michigan State.  The Spartans were banged up in the first half of the season, but are now as healthy as they have been all season and coming off a bye.

I think Michigan is getting too much respect for its 41-17 blowout victory over Penn State last time out.  But the Wolverines were far from impressive in their previous three games.  They only beat Maryland 34-27 as 17-point home favorites, Iowa 27-14 as 10.5-point road favorites and Indiana 31-10 as 23-point road favorites.  Keep in mind that Indiana game was tied 10-10 at halftime.  Michigan only outgained Iowa by 46 yards and Maryland by 66 yards, too.

Michigan State is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Michigan.  The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Simply put, this is too many points for this rivalry game, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Spartans and 'sell high' on the Wolverines.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +27.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall since QB Hank Bachmeier transferred out.  The wins came against San Diego State, Fresno State and Air Force.  All three programs are down this season compared to preseasons expectations.

This is a letdown and sandwich spot for Boise State.  They are coming off the 19-14 win at Air Force that puts them on the inside track to win the Mountain West.  Now they have a big game against rival BYU on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot.  They won't be giving their 'A' effort this week, and that's going to make it difficult for them to win by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado State, which faced a brutal early schedule and got off to an 0-4 start under first-year head coach Jay Norvell.  But the Rams have continued to fight and improve under Norvell, going 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall with wins over Nevada and Hawaii and only a 4-point loss to Utah State as a 14-point dog.

I know Colorado State's offense has struggled, but their defense has been better than expected.  Their defense is the reason they have a chance to cover this game because Boise State is going to have a hard time scoring 28 points in this one with a total of just 43.  The Rams are holding foes to 381 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play, which is impressive considering how much they have been on the field due to their offense.  They have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 points per game.

It's not like Boise State is an offensive juggernaut, either.  The Broncos are scoring 26.0 points per game, averaging 336 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that allow 362 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have a below-average offense.  Their defense is good, but that have faced such an easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They have played the 104th-ranked schedule in the country overall.

Colorado State is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17.5

This is a big letdown spot for Oregon.  The Ducks are coming off a 45-30 home win over UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the week in college football last Saturday.  It's now time to 'sell high' on the Ducks, who are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Oregon has been awesome at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the highway this season.  They lost 49-3 to Georgia and only beat Washington State 44-41 as 6.5-point road favorites.  They did beat Arizona 49-22, but California also crushed Arizona 49-31.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  They did hang tough in a 21-28 home loss to Washington as 7.5-point home dogs.  They are now 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season.  This is the best offense Cal has had in a few years, and their defense is solid as always allowing 22.6 points per game.

The recent head-to-head series really favors Cal in this one.  Cal is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon with all three meetings decided by 10 points or fewer.  Now Cal is catching a whopping 17.5 points in this showdown.  Cal always takes this game more seriously than Oregon does, and Justin Wilcox has figured out their offense.  The Ducks have been held to 24, 17 and 17 points in the last three meetings.  That's going to make it tough to cover this 17.5-point spread if they are shut down again.

California is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  California is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take California Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Louisville +4.5

The Louisville Cardinals have played two of their best games of the season the last two weeks.  They beat Virginia 34-17 on the road as 2-point underdogs without Malik Cunningham.  He returned last week to lead them to a 24-10 home win over Pittsburgh as 1-point favorites.  

It was the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have held their opponent to 17 points or fewer as this defense is better than it gets credit for.  This is also one of the better offenses in the ACC as the Cardinals have scored 32.6 points per game in their last five games.  They have the firepower to hang with Wake Forest, and they also have the defense to get a few key stops.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season against a pretty soft schedule.  Wake Forest has played the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country.  To compare, Louisville has played the 44th-toughest schedule in the country.  They are more battled-tested than the Demon Deacons, and this will be their toughest test since a home loss to Clemson.

Louisville is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings over the past three seasons.  Louisville won 62-59 as 7-point road dogs in 2019, 45-21 as 2-point home dogs in 2020 and lost 34-37 as 7-point road dogs in 2021.  Amazingly, the Demon Deacons continue to be favored over the Cardinals when they shouldn't be.  This is clearly a great matchup for Cunningham and head coach Scott Satterfield.  The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last four games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with Western Kentucky in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for Western Kentucky.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final four games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Three games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  Two weeks ago they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.  And last week they led UTSA late and lost 27-31 as 10-point road underdogs.  UTSA is the favorite to win Conference USA.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 35.0 points per game, 484 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye three weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give Western Kentucky all they want and more Saturday.

This is a letdown spot for WKU after a 20-17 win over another C-USA contender in UAB last week.  Well, they would never have won that game if QB Dylan Hopkins didn't get knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter.  UAB backup QB Zeno went 3-of-10 for 33 yards and rushed 6 times for 14 yards after replacing Hopkins.  Simply put, he was awful, and UAB still should have beaten WKU had they not turned the ball over four times.

This is a tired WKU team that will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Hilltoppers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule, ranked 122nd in the country.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after a 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  The only teams they have beaten by this kind of margin are Austin Peay, Hawaii, FIU and Middle Tennessee.  Those are three of the worst FBS teams in the country plus an FCS team, and they only beat Austin Peay by 11.

North Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Finally, the Mean Green were 10-point dogs at UTSA last week, and now are 10-point dogs at WKU this week.  UTSA beat WKU and is better than WKU.  This line cannot be the same as it was last week, so there's value on the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats following six consecutive losses.  Well, five of those six losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They just hung with Maryland last week in a 24-31 road loss as 14-point underdogs.  And now they will give Iowa a run for its money Saturday.

This is exactly the type of game Pat Fitzgerald loves.  It's guaranteed to be a physical Big Ten game against an Iowa team that plays a similar style.  That's why Northwestern plays Iowa tough every year and will play them tough again this season.

Iowa's offense has no business laying this kind of number.  The Hawkeyes are scoring 14.0 points per game, averaging 227 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  They have scored more than 14 points just twice all season.  One was against Nevada, a 27-0 win against what is one of the worst teams in FBS.  The other was a 27-10 win over Rutgers, which was misleading considering Iowa scored two defensive touchdowns and was outgained by 84 yards.  So technically the Hawkeyes' offense only scored 13 points on Rutgers.

Northwestern was even worse last year than they are this season, and Iowa was better.  Well, Iowa won 17-12 as identical 11.5-point favorites at Northwestern.  And they were fortunate to win that game as the were +3 in turnovers.  Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS in road games following a cover where his team lost straight up as an underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  Kirk Ferentz is 3-14 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa.  The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off five consecutive games where they had two or more turnovers.  Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor offensive teams that average 310 or fewer yards per game.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* ECU/BYU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on East Carolina +3

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS this season but could easily be 7-1 instead.  They missed an extra point late and lost to NC State by 1.  They also lost in OT to Navy by 3.  Their one legit loss was a 9-24 setback at Tulane, but Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-1 this season with a road win over Kansas State.

What makes me know East Carolina is legit and should be 7-1 is the fact that the Pirates have actually outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 472.6 yards per game on offense behind a balanced attack with 163 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game.  They are allowing 395 yards per game on defense, outgaining their opponents by 78 yards per game.

BYU has fallen off a cliff since a 4-1 start.  The Cougars have now lost three straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are one of the most overrated teams in the country, and continue to be as favorites here over East Carolina when they shouldn't be.  BYU has been outgained in four of its eight games and drastically in its last three.

You could see the sign of things to come with a 38-26 win over Utah State that was much closer than the final score despite being a 25.5-point favorite against Utah State's third-string QB.  BYU only outgained Utah State by 7 yards.  They went on to lose 28-20 to Notre Dame while getting outgained by 220 yards, lost 52-35 to Arkansas while getting outgained by 173 yards, and lost 41-14 to Liberty while getting outgained by 289 yards.

The brutal schedule and the fatigue are starting to catch up to to the Cougars.  In fact, BYU will be playing for a 9th consecutive week here.  BYU's offense isn't working, and the defense is getting gashed.  Liberty had 41 points and 547 total yards on this BYU defense last week which followed up 52 points and 644 total yards by Arkansas the previous week.

The Cougars cannot stop the run.  They have allowed at least 205 rushing yards in five of their last six games, including 3000 to Liberty and 277 to Arkansas.  East Carolina averages 4.9 yards per attempt this season and can keep the ball on the ground if they decide to, though QB Holton Ahlers is one of the best signal callers in the country.  BYU allows 202 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  ECU only allows 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.

East Carolina just crushed UCF 34-13 at home, a UCF team that many thought would win the American Athletic this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as road underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  BYU is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  The Cougars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet East Carolina Friday.

20* Utah/Washington State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Two road losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utah Utes undervalued right now.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the Pac-12.  Those two losses have them flying under the radar.  They are still the best team in the conference and I think we'll see that play out as the season unfolds.

That was definitely the case last time out as Utah handed USC its first loss of the season.  The Utes racked up 562 total yards on the Trojans in the 43-42 shootout victory.  The Utes are now scoring 40.7 points per game and averaging 473 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense.  I don't see any way for Washington State to be able to score enough points to hang with the Utes in this one Thursday night.

The Cougars are down their two best weapons on offense in WR Renard Bell and RB Nakia Watson.  Watson has rushed for 325 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.1 per carry and leads the team in rushing.  Bell has 20 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns.  Bell has missed the past two games, while Watson has missed most of the past two games.

To no surprise, Washington State has had it two worst offensive performances in its last two games without these two.  The Cougars managed just 14 points and 316 total yards on a terrible USC defense in a 30-14 loss.  They managed just 10 points in a 24-10 loss at Oregon State last time out.  That's not a great Oregon State defense, either.

Utah has owned Washington State in going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings while winning by 25, 17 and 11 points.  The Utes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a win.  The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Washington State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games coming off two consecutive games where 70 or more combined points were scored.  Kyle Whittingham is 21-11 ATS following a bye week as the coach of Utah.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Ravens/Bucs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay -1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They are coming off the most shocking loss of the season, a 21-3 road loss to the Carolina Panthers.  If Mike Evans didn't drop a wide open touchdown that would have given the Bucs a 7-0 lead, that game would have played out much differently.  Nothing went right for the Bucs after that.

The Bucs are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  You'll never get them at a better price this season.  The lookahead line on this game was Bucs -3.5, and now we are getting the Bucs at basically a PK.  Whatever the Bucs have to give, they are going to give in this game to try and turn their season around in front of their home crowd.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns as 6.5-point favorites that they did not deserve.  The Ravens were outgained 336 to 254 by the Browns and 6.0 to 4.0 yards per play.  A bad Cleveland defense shut them down, and it took an overturned TD to Amari Cooper late for the Ravens to escape with a victory.

This Baltimore offense has been broken the last four weeks.  The Ravens have managed just 20.5 points per game and just 320.3 yards per game in their last four games.  They aren't going to get any separation from the Bucs, who still have a very good defense that allows just 17.7 points and 308.3 yards per game.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and Tom Brady will make enough plays to get Tampa Bay a much-needed bounce back victory.

And that's why I'm taking the Bucs here because they have the best unit on the field in their defense, and they will be the team playing with more of a sense of urgency tonight.  The Ravens actually rank just 23rd in total defense allowing 366.4 yards per game and 19th in allowing 5.7 yards per play.  Tampa Bay ranks 7th allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.

Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after playing its last game at home.  Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  Tom Brady hasn't lost three consecutive games since 2002.  He has never been two games under .500 in his career.  I'll side with history here and for Brady and the Bucs to get the job done.  Roll with the Bucs Thursday.

20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores.  Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.

The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3.  They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers.  They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites.  They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards.  And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs.  But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears.  They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday.  They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards.  But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.

Chicago doesn't get blown out.  The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season.  I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers.  The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.

The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively.  Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game.  Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread?  I don't think so.

Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens.  They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore.  They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers.  The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season.  They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.

I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now.  Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him.  But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season.  Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50

Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.  

The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game.  Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now.  That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers.  Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.

Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game.  Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf.  But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense.  In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt.  The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout.  It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.

Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals.  They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless.  They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win.  They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in.  They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week.  They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens.  And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three  consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11

The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way.  I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week.  Well that boost only lasted for a half.  The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there.  They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.

WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals.  The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams.  Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage.  Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.

They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback.  Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much.  They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago.  They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago.  And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.

The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week.  They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.

In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009.  The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.

I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead.  The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game.  The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air.  The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.

It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout.  Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49

The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week.  They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup.  Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.

The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game.  The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play.  Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.

The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score.  They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down.  They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier.  Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive.  He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.

Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game.  They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB.  Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.

I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2

The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year.  They are nowhere near the team they were last year.  They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season.  Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia.  They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.

The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.  The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won.  He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17.  The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.

Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here.  And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season.  Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC.  This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.

Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th.  That difference in strength of schedule is a big one.  This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11

Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.

Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games,  and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener.  Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite.  That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards.  This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number.  The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.

The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state.  New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss).  The only team to blow them out was LSU.  Roll with New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5

I love the spot for UTEP this week.  They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season.  They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well.  UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards.  If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week.  And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?

The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites.  Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season.  Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home.  They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.

UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation.  They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards.  The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well.  Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.

FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.  Roll with UTEP Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.

Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.  The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites.  Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass.  Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title.  Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.  North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5

What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real?  They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games.  They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12.  They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.

I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon.  This game should be lined between the 3's worst case.  Oregon hasn't beaten anyone.  The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU.  When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia.  Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.

The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too.  The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play.  Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.

The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons.  They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season.  This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series.  And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Take UCLA Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5

Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere.  Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters.  Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start.  Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.

It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury.  Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan.  This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup.  They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.

Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan.  The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory.  It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss.  They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back.  And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.

Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result.  The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season.  They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense.  Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.

Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points.  Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Clemson ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 50

Clemson and Georgia Tech have two of the best defenses in the country this season.  Syracuse is off to a 6-0 start largely due to their defense.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game.  They are also 8th in total defense allowing 268.8 yards per game.

Clemson is 26th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  They are also 32nd in total defense at 341.7 yards per game.  They have played some really good offenses in Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisiana Tech already.  Syracuse may be the 5th-best offense they have faced this season.  They will shut down the Orange, who haven't seen a defense nearly as good as this Clemson stop unit.

Last year, Clemson beat Syracuse 17-14 for just 31 combined points. Four of the last five meetings have seen 51 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Both teams are run-heavy which will keep the clock moving.  Syracuse runs the ball 60% of the time and averages just 65 plays per game on offense, which is one of the lowest marks in the country.  Clemson runs the ball on 53% of the time.

Dino Babers is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a conference home win as a head coach.  Syracuse is 7-0 in its last seven games UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Clemson is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Points will be hard to come by in this battle of unbeatens.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UAB/Western Kentucky C-USA No-Brainer on UAB ML +125

I like the spot and the matchup for the UAB Blazers and I expect them to pull off the upset over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as a result.  UAB has only played six games this season while Western Kentucky has already played seven games.  The Blazers will be the fresher team, especially with this being a short week.

These teams have a common opponent in Middle Tennessee.  UAB crush Middle Tennessee 41-14 and outgained them by 245 yards while racking up 581 total yards.  Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 35-17 and outgained them by 152 yards while racking up 443 total yards.  It was a comfortable win for the Hilltoppers, but not as dominant as UAB.

UAB rushes for 246 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  They are going to be able to run on this Western Kentucky defense.  They also have an efficient passing game, completing 64.7% for 206 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.  And I really like this UAB defense, which holds opponents to 17.3 points per game, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.

Western Kentucky relies heavily on throwing the football to score points.  They average 345 passing yards per game.  Well, UAB has one of the best pass defenses in the country.  The Blazers are holding opponents to 176 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt, holding them to 82 passing yards per game and 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.

UAB is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a conference win.  The Blazers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UAB is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UAB on the Money Line Friday.

20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick.  It hasn't come yet.  I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning.  I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3.  I expect the Saints to win this game outright.

The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season.  The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.

The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks.  The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.

The two wins weren't impressive, either.  They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken.  They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4.  So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.

The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.  But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.  

Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray.  I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week.  This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.

The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards.  They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game.  Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.

The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks.  They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one.  Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.

I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards.  The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less.  The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry.  The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Saints Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  They have been an underdog in five of six games and a dog of 17 or more four times.  They have managed to get through it at 3-3 and have covered three straight coming in.

The sign of things to come was the misleading 27-10 loss to UCF as 21-point dogs.  They outgained the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  That showed what they were capable of, and that result looks even better now after UCF went on to blow out SMU and Temple the last two weeks since.

Georgia Tech then went on the road and upset Pittsburgh 26-21 as a 21.5-point underdogs.  And last time out they could have easily let down, instead they beat Duke 23-20 (OT) as a 3.5-point dog.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Yellow Jackets outgained the Blue Devils 412 to 278, or by 134 total yards.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Duke.  Virginia lost 17-38 to Duke and was held to just 295 yards while getting outgained by 82 yards.  The Cavaliers went on to lose 34-17 as a home favorite to Louisville and their backup quarterback while getting outgained by 154 yards.  The Cavaliers are now 2-4 this season with their only two wins coming at home against FCS Richmond and Old Dominion (16-14).

Tony Elliott is in over his head in his first season at Virginia this year.  They have a good QB in Brennan Armstrong, but their offensive line is terrible with five new starters and he doesn't have much time to do anything.  It won't get any easier against this underrated Georgia Tech defense that is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play that average 6.3 per play, holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

20* Georgia State/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Georgia State +10

A lot was expected out of Georgia State after going 8-5 last season and returning 15 starters, including all of their studs on offense.  But a 2-4 start this season currently has them undervalued.  We'll take advantage and back them as 10-point underdogs to Appalachian State Wednesday night in this 'buy low' spot.

The Panthers have gotten it together of late after an 0-4 start.  They beat Army 31-14 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and followed it up with a 41-33 home win over Georgia Southern as 2.5-point favorites.  That's the same Georgia Southern team that just upset James Madison to hand the Dukes their first loss of the season.

Appalachian State is down this season and has been overvalued since that upset win over Texas A&M.  The Mountaineers are just 3-3 on the season.  They only have one win by more than 4 points this year, and that came against The Citadel as a 38.5-point favorite.  They were just upset as 19-point favorites against Texas State last time out, losing outright 36-24.

Georgia State is a great rushing team, averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  Appalachian State has allowed 172 or more rushing yards three times this season.  The Panthers will be able to run the football on them to set up play-action.  They are also throwing for 202 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass with a dynamic offense this season.

Georgia State's defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Panthers have faced a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  They give up 6.0 yards per play against team that average 6.5 yards per play, so they are actually holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  

Keep in mind Georgia State has played such a tough schedule that they were underdogs in four of five games, so they have actually met expectations at 2-4.  App State has been favored in five of six games, yet has gone just 3-3.  The Mountaineers continue to be overvalued as double-digit favorites this week.

The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Georgia State is 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher.  Bet Georgia State Wednesday.

20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result.  But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3.  It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.

The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won.  They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone.  The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT.  That was the second game they gave away this season.  They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.

The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team.  They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles.  They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game.  So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far.  It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start.  They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.  That's not the sign of an elite team.  I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.

Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns.  They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams.  They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here.  Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.

I love the spot for the Broncos, too.  They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football.  They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time.  It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.

The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more.  It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense.  Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates.  The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.

This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense.  The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air.  Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6

Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  He crushed the Commanders 25-10.  And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.

I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now.  The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles.  This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.

A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line.  Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games.  Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line.  All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.

The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons.  They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories.  The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run.  They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him.  He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.

The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season.  They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory.  They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over.  The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss.  Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL.  The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5

San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season.  Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year.  But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference.  He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022.

San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent.  They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33.  That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also.

Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  San Jose State is far and away better than both teams.

Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place.  He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions.  He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts.  Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans.  He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores.  He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either.  They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge.  San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5

Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs.

The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog.  The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game.

The Seminoles have elite numbers.  They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.  Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule.  Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are.  The Seminoles are elite in this category.

I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST.  It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town.  The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point.  Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night.

Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4

This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week.

The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites.  There was nothing fluky about either of those victories.  The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense.

Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home.  They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week.  QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards.  But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was.  Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss.  Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse.

Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5

James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations.  Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS.

But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football.  They aren't just winning, they are dominating.  The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense.  They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play.

Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska.  They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.  They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  So they can hang with the Dukes offensively.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively.  They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season.

The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack.  The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game.  Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season.  You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week.  Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season.  The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will.  Roll with James Madison Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5

A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin.  Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division.  Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway.

Boy did the players ever respond.  After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week.  That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game.  The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards.  Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.

Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season.  The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season.  Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move.  He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron.

The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive.  They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards.  They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards.  They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards.  And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards.  They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed.

So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start.  They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster.  I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle.

The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5

What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real?  They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset.  It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage.  The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders.

I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites.  They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide.  The Vols are elite on both sides of the football.  While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset.

Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite.  The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters.

Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20.  They are fortunate to be 6-0.  I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.  Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there.

Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season.  To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run.  Tennessee is up to the challenge.  The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages.

Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma.  They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it.

Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now.  Kansas State upset them on the road.  Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24.  That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week.  The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback.

It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week.  That game could decide the Big 12 title.  In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3.  But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats.

Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12.  It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won.  And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home.  Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way.

Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game.  The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages.  They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense.

Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out.  In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.  That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.