25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M ML -140

The LSU Tigers are starting to get too much respect after wins and covers against Ole Miss and Arkansas the last two weeks.  They were in a great spot against Ole Miss coming off their bye while Ole Miss was tired and banged up, and they upset the Rebels at home in OT in a night game in Baton Rouge.

Last week they went on the road as 3-point favorites and took down Arkansas by a final of 34-10.  This was a very misleading final as the Tigers benefited from being +3 in turnovers with one that set up an easy TD for LSU and another that took points off the board for Arkansas.  LSU only averaged 5.5 yards per play while Arkansas averaged 5.6 yards per play.

That misleading final is providing us with excellent line value to fade the Tigers this week.  Couple that with the fact that Texas A&M failed to cover last week against a pesky Mississippi State team, and we have great line value to back the Aggies this week.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 34-24 as 21-point road favorites last week.  That's the same Mississippi State team that took Georgia to the wire on the road the previous week.  The Bulldogs are quickly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the country since they made the switch at quarterback.

Texas A&M handed Missouri its lone loss of the season the game prior winning 41-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.  Now back at home behind the 12th man and a night game in College Station, the Aggies will have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere for LSU, which hasn't faced a road game this tough all season yet.

Texas A&M has the better defense in this one holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play while LSU allows 5.8 yards per play.  LSU has a slight advantage on offense averaging 6.5 yards per play compared to 6.2 for Texas A&M.  The Aggies are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Tigers on the season.  

The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings, so home-field advantage has been huge in this series. A night game in College Station is worth even more.  I'll skip the spread and back the Aggies on the money line just to win outright.  Bet Texas A&M on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5

The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon.  It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago.

The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs.  I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets.  The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them.  They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards.  Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat.

A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football.  The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football.  The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game.  Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks.

Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis.  The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini.  They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota.  

The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score.  The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas.  So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total.  This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs.  Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th.  There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result.

Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5.  They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears.  Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points.

I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow.  They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week.  This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total.

When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games.  Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense.  The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense.  They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game.

In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU.  Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week.

The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech.  They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State.  

Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo.  Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats.  The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game.

A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game.  Well, Northwestern has a similar profile.  The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed.  They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable.

Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game.  They have been a great bet a road underdog for years.  They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite.

This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week.  I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them.  They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week.

Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home.  The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat.  They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily.

One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone.  He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season.

While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule.  I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number.

Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State.  That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards.  The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory.

Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season.  Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon.  The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks.  There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene.  Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays.

Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is.  The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps.  The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game.

Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps.  The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain.  They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense.

This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense.  Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense.  The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed.  Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game.  

The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA.  The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps.  There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday.

BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor.  It should be more of the same here against UCF.

BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game.  UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play.  You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week.

The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State.  I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season.  BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously.

The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total should be set in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5

The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively.  Their performances in their last two games are most concerning.  They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing.  Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final.  They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games.

The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa.  Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season.  I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week.

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps.  They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game.

This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5.  The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them.  East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty.  Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5

North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow.

North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game.  They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed.

Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense.  The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games.  They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week.  They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis.  I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games.

Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites.  That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else.  They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane.  And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites.

The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green.  I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week.  I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters.  

The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7

This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals.  They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot.  Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort.  I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night.

The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot.  Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week.

Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days.  The Eagles are rested and ready to go.  They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game.

Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground.  This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago.  I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters.

Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check.  The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier.  They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals.  Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road.

The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division.  They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright.

This is a tough spot for the Vikings.  They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game.  This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well.

Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season.  They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury.  Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2.  I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5

Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games.  They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites.  They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points.

Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee.  I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions.  They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.

Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least.  The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech.  They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win.  To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24.  

The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* CFB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/LA Tech OVER 50

UTEP and Louisiana Tech both like to play fast on offense which means there will be a lot of possessions in this game and more chances for points.  UTEP ranks 23rd in tempo snapping it every 24.2 seconds, while LA Tech ranks 46th in tempo at 25.2 seconds in between snaps.

Both teams are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season.  UTEP put up 30 points on FIU last week.  The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 121st in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 120th in total defense at 419.9 yards per game.

LA Tech put up 30 points on New Mexico State last week after scoring 48 on Middle Tennessee the previous week.  But the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in New Mexico State last week.  I like QB Evan Bullock, who is their full-time starter now and has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two games.  They are forming great chemistry with Bullock, and he should have another big game here.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout here tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with no wind or rain to speak of in Ruston, LA.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers just had a bye two weeks ago and got a ton of players back from injury.  They promptly jumped out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos in their first game back from the bye and coasted to victory in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Now they remain fresh, and we are getting them at a great value Monday night as only 2.5-point favorites over the dreadful Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are a tired team that looks lost right now.  They'll be playing for a 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and their lone win over the 49ers was an absolute fluke.  They came back from a 23-10 halftime deficit as the 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot in the 2nd half.

The three losses came 34-13 at Green Bay, 42-14 at home to Washington and 20-13 at home to the Lions.  Kyler Murray and the offense are stuck in the mud, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game allowed, 27th in total defense at 373.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The Chargers have a massive edge defensively as they rank 1st in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.2 yards per game.  Jim Harbaugh always has a good defense everywhere he goes, and he has turned this Chargers stop unit into one of the league's best in his first season.

The offense got a healthy Justin Herbert and both his starting tackles back last week and it made a big difference.  Los Angeles is a run-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing.  That makes this a bad matchup for Arizona, which ranks 29th against the run allowing 153.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.  Things will come easy for the Chargers offensively, and nothing will come easy for Kyler Murray and company.

The Cardinals are really banged up with four starters questionable on offense and four starters questionable on defense, plus another five defenders on IR.  The Chargers will wear the Cardinals down with their rushing attack and be able to get the necessary first downs late in this game to preserve the win and cover.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Ravens/Bucs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Monday night against two defenses that are vulnerable to their opponents' strengths.  This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout with no rain, less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's Monday night in Tampa Bay.

The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL rank 1st in total offense at 453.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.1 yards per play.  The Buccaneers rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  Both teams are almost fully healthy on offense right now as well.

The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 205.3 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry.  The Ravens are going to be able to get whatever they want against this banged-up Tampa Bay defense, which allows 23.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense nearly as potent as Baltimore yet.  The Bucs allowed 27 points to the Saints and all their backups last week after allowing 36 points and 550 total yards to the Falcons the week prior.

No question the Ravens have a solid defense, but they are just 23rd in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play.  Where they have been particularly poor is against the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 26th in the NFL.  That makes this a great matchup for Baker Mayfield and this pass-heavy Tampa Bay offense.

The OVER is 5-1 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in all six, including 49 or more in four of the last five.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs last three games overall with 49, 66 and 78 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Raiders/Rams Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

I grabbed the Rams -5 on Sunday night loving the spot for this team and anticipating they would get bet.  Well, as of this writing they are up to 7-point favorites now against the Raiders, and I obviously agree with the move.  This one has blowout written all over it.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks.  Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers.  They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games.

In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19.  They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye.  This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense.

Reinforcements are on the way now as the Rams had a much-needed bye last week, and they will be looking at this as a brand new season moving forward.  Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week and could return.  RT Joe Notebloom is off IR and back to practice and could return.  The defense is almost fully healthy now and should be one of the most improved units in the league the rest of the way.

But this is as much a fade of the Raiders as it is a play on the Rams.  The Raiders are lost right now.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with a 19-point home loss to the Steelers, a 16-point road loss to the Broncos and a 14-point home loss to the Panthers.  Their lone win came at home against the hapless Browns during this stretch.

The Raiders just traded WR Devante Adams to the Jets earlier this week, signaling that their season is over.  DE Maxx Crosby has yet to practice this week and may not play, especially since he is so close to Adams.  RB Zamir White, WR Jakobi Meyers and RG Dylan Parham are all questionable on offense.  DT John Jenkins, LB Tommy Eichenberg and CB Jack Jones are all questionable along with Crosby.  Five other defenders are already on IR.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and now limited weapons outside TE Brock Bowers to get the ball to.

Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams should have a huge day against a Raiders defense that allows 140.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry to take some pressure off of Stafford, and the Rams are at their best when they can run the football.  I obviously got a good line here at -5, but would still play the Rams up to -7 and throw them in some teasers at that number.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Commanders OVER 51

Both the Panthers and Commanders are dead nuts OVER teams.  Carolina is 4-0 OVER since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback with 58 or more combined points in three of them.  Washington is 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 53 or more combined points in four of them.

Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 378 yards per game and 5th at 6.4 yards per play.  Jayden Daniels is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for good reason as he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 75.3% of his passes and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns.

Daniels and company should score at will against a Carolina defense that may be the worst in the entire NFL.  The Panthers rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 33.8 points per game this season.  They have allowed 34, 36 and 38 points the last three weeks.

Injuries to their defense is a big reason why as they have 10 defenders on IR and another 7 listed as questionable heading into this game.  They have been decimated on that side of the ball.  They will be facing a Washington offense that is basically fully healthy and should get RB Brian Robinson back this week.

Andy Dalton has at least made this Carolina offense respectable averaging 22.5 points per game in his four starts.  He'll be up against a poor Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Commanders are also 29th allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, so the Panthers should have plenty of success on the ground behind Chubba Hubbard.

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Commanders defensively as they just lost their best defensive lineman in Jonathan Allen to a season-ending injury in allowing 30 points and 484 total yards to the Ravens last week.  Another five defensive starters are listed as questionable heading into this one as well.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and, 3 MPH winds and zero chance of rain.  I've been riding OVERS in Carolina and Washington games in recent weeks, and now they meet up and I'm definitely not passing up this opportunity.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Seahawks/Falcons OVER 48.5

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a really banged up defense missing several key players on their defensive line and in the secondary.  But their offense is good enough to go score for score with almost anyone, and they're going to have to try and do that in the dome in Atlanta Sunday.

The Seahawks allowed 36 points and 483 total yards to the 49ers last week, 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team that was without two of its best weapons in WR Nabers and RB Singletary two weeks ago, and 42 points to the Lions three weeks ago.

It won't get any easier for this Seattle defense going up against an Atlanta offense that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Falcons put up 36 points and 550 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 38 points and 423 total yards on the Panthers last week.  Kirk Cousins is showing he's still got it, and he has ample weapons to get the ball to.

Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in pass rush and just cannot get to opposing quarterbacks.  Despite a shaky offensive line, Geno Smith is going to have all day to pick apart their defense.  The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in five consecutive games, including 30 to the Bucs in their last home game.  Geno Smith has his full compliment of weapons healthy right now as their offense is very healthy as a whole.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in five of those six.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4.5

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and they are about as healthy as they have been all season now with the exception of QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But Tyler Huntley was brought in to replace him and started the same week he was brought in in a loss to the Titans.  He was much better in a 15-10 win at New England in his second start, and now with two full weeks to get accustomed to Mike McDaniels' offense, he is primed for his best game yet.

That's especially the case considering he takes a big step down in class here against a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, plus one that is dealing with a ton of injuries.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense at 389.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 31st against the run allowing 155.2 rushing yards per game.  The Dolphins will go with a run-heavy approach, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rush for 200-plus yards in this one with all their weapons in Achane and Mostert healthy, plus Huntley being a dual-threat.

What has gone unnoticed for the Dolphins is just how good their defense has been this season.  They rank 5th in total defense allowing just 285.4 yards per game.  The Colts are making a mistake going from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.  They have played their best this season with Flacco, and Richardson is too much boom or bust with his inaccuracy as a passer.  Four key players on offense are all questionable in RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce and C Ryan Kelly.

The Dolphins were just 2.5-point home favorites over the Titans two games ago.  The Colts were just 2.5-point road dogs to the Titans last week.  As you can see, there's clearly value in getting the Dolphins at +4.5 this week based on those recent lines against a common opponent.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Colts are a tired team playing six straight one-score games to open the season, while the Dolphins are fresh and off a bye.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Green Bay Packers are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Jordan Love back fully healthy and with his full compliment of weapons.  The Packers have five offensive players on the injury report but all five practiced on Thursday, which is a good sign they are good to go.

The Packers scored 29 points on the Vikings, 24 on the Rams and then 34 on the Cardinals last week in Love's three starts back from injury.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Cardinals last week.  Love threw for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns.  This is one of the best offenses in the league when fully healthy.

The Texans allowed Drake Maye to throw 3 touchdown passes on them in his first career start last week.  Their defense is extremely banged up right now with five starters missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday in DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, LB To'oto'o, S Ward and CB Lassiter.  Plus, DT Mario Edwards was just suspended and will miss this game.  The Packers should be able to name their number Sunday.

The Texans are overvalued due to their 5-1 start this season.  They could easily be 3-3 instead or worse.  Four of their five wins came by 6 points or fewer and a total of 15 points.  The lone blowout came against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Patriots last week.

We saw what happened when the Texans hit the road and took a step up in class earlier this season in their lone loss.  They fell 34-7 to Minnesota, which is the same Minnesota team Green Bay took to the wire a few weeks ago in a 31-29 defeat.  Keep in mind the Texans actually had Nico Collins in that game, and now he is out with injury.  He is easily their best receiver with 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD despite missing one game.  They need him to beat a team like Green Bay, and couple that with all their defensive injuries, and I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and it's worth a full 3 points in my opinion.  Considering the Packers are the better, healthier team right now, they should be more than 2.5-point favorites at home this week.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Florida UNDER 43

Both Florida and Kentucky are dead nuts UNDER teams.  Both play elite defense and both are lacking on offense.  Add to that the fact that there will be double-digit winds in Gainesville Saturday night, and we have the recipe for an ugly, defensive battle in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in all Kentucky games this season.  The Wildcats rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points per game, 117th in total offense at 321.7 yards per game and 109th at 5.1 yards per play.  The Wildcats are in no hurry, either, ranking 126th in tempo at 29.9 seconds in between plays.

Kentucky ranks 9th in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and 5th in total defense at 251.5 yards per game allowed.  Their defense is always fresh because their offense runs at such a slow pace and tries to control the ball.  Kentucky held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the country.  That's all you need to know about how good this defense really is.

I was on Florida last week as +14.5-point underdogs at Tennessee and it was mostly due to their defensive improvement.  I was very impressive with Florida only allowing 13 points and 273 total yards to UCF the week prior, including 108 rushing on 40 attempts after UCF came into that game as one of the top rushing teams in the country.

The Gators followed it up with an even more impressive defensive effort at Tennessee, allowing just 312 total yards including 143 rushing on 43 attempts to the Vols, who had previously been one of the top overall offenses in the country.  They deserved to win that game.

Unfortunately for Florida, starting QB Graham Mertz got injured in that Tennessee game and now will be out for this game.  That leaves the offense to freshman DJ Lagway, who adds a dual-threat element to their offense, but isn't near the passer that Mertz was.  The Gators are going to have to be more of a one-dimensional running team moving forward with Lagway, and that makes them even more of an UNDER team.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 44, 37, 42 and 47 combined points.  As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series, and it figures to continue to be that way given all the factors heading into this game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +6.5

The Michigan State Spartans desperately needed a bye week.  They not only played six consecutive weeks, but they finished it by having to play two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and then having to travel to Eugene to face Oregon on a short week on a Friday night.

Now the Spartans have been off for the last two weeks and will be fresh for this game against Iowa Saturday night.  Bye weeks benefit first-year head coaches more than any, and giving one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in Jonathan Smith extra time to prepare for Iowa is a huge advantage.

This is a tough spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  After traveling to Ohio State and getting blasted two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes came back home and beat Washington 40-16 last week.  I think the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect now off that blowout win that was not only misleading, but it was also a terrible spot for Washington.

The Huskies were coming off their win over Michigan, and they got their national title revenge.  They were flat because of it, and it was an early 9:00 AM body clock game for the Huskies against Iowa last week.  Yet Washington still outgained Iowa 393 to 328 for the game.  The Hawkeyes had no business scoring 40 points on just 328 total yards, including 108 passing.

Iowa is a one-dimensional running team this season.  That makes this a great matchup for Michigan State, which has a great defense especially against the run.  Despite the tough schedule, the Spartans rank 38th in the country allowing 330.3 yards per game and only 21.0 points per game.  They only allow 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  They have what it takes to slow down Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, who is one of the best backs in the country.

Michigan State was dreadful last year but still managed to outgain Iowa 349 to 222, or by 127 yards in their meeting as 10-point underdogs in Iowa City.  The Spartans are now one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and coming off their bye week they are primed for one of their best performances of the season.  It will be good enough to not only cover this 6.5-point spread, but likely win this game outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* LSU/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and could easily be 6-0.  If they were 6-0, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to LSU.  They outgained Oklahoma State 648 to 385 and found a way to lose in OT.  They ougtgained Texas A&M 379 to 297 and led in the 4th quarter of a 21-17 defeat.

Arkansas has elite numbers this season averaging 485 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 322 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 163 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.

Based on numbers alone, Arkansas is the better team.  LSU averages 460 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense and allows 372 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  And keep in mind the Razorbacks have also played the tougher schedule to this point.

After a grueling 19-14 home win over Tennessee, the Razorbacks needed a bye week after playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They got that bye last week, and now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for LSU.  Meanwhile, LSU is coming off a huge OT home win over a short-handed Ole Miss team in which they never led until OT.  This is a clear flat spot for the Tigers now feeling fat and happy off that Ole Miss win.

Each of the last four meetings between Arkansas and LSU were decided by exactly 3 points, so getting 3 points with the Razorbacks alone is a nice value. But this Arkansas team is one of the most improved in the country and ready to pull the upset at home in what will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 55.5

Colorado is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Buffaloes have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games combining for 69 points with Baylor, 69 with UCF and 59 with Kansas State.  This total of 55.5 is too low for a game against Arizona with perfect weather conditions and a Wildcats team that also profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.

The strength of Colorado is their passing game which ranks 8th in the country at 336.3 yards per game while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  The weakness of Arizona is their defense, which allows 26.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense as potent as this Colorado outfit.  They just allowed 41 points to BYU last week and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week with a tired defense.

But Arizona should have plenty of offensive success against Colorado, which allows 24.3 points per game and has given up 31 to Baylor and 31 to Kansas State this season.  I'd argue this Arizona offense is the best unit they will have faced this season.  The Wildcats average 413.5 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play, including 5.1 yard per carry on the ground and 7.1 yards per pass attempt.  This despite playing three of their last four games against elite defenses in BYU, Utah and Kansas State as well as an improved Texas Tech stop unit.

Arizona beat Colorado 34-31 for 65 combined points last season with a similar total of 56.  They combined for 63 points in 2022 as well.  It should be more of the same here as these two offenses combine for 60-plus points Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Auburn/Missouri ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +4.5

The Auburn Tigers went through the gauntlet to start the season having to play six consecutive weeks without a bye and closing it with games against Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma and then Georgia.  They needed a bye week, and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go against Missouri this week as they head into the 2nd half of their season.

Due to their 2-4 SU record, the Auburn Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have the numbers of a team that should be 5-1 or 6-0.  Auburn ranks 35th in the country at 445 yards per game and 9th at 7.3 yards per play on offense, and 48th in the country at 338 yards per game and 5.0 per play allowed on defense.  That's right, they are outgaining teams by 107 yards per game and a whopping 2.3 yards per play despite being 2-4.  Costly turnovers and poor execution in short-yardage situations are the culprit, and they worked on those situations over their bye week.

Missouri is overrated due to its 5-1 record this season.  They beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point home favorites and Vanderbilt 30-27 as 17.5-point home favorites.  They finally got exposed losing 41-10 at Texas A&M two weeks ago which was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 512 to 254 by the Aggies, or by 258 yards.

Based on the numbers, Auburn is as good as Texas A&M and will expose them again.  Auburn has also played the 36th-ranked schedule while Missouri has played the 111th.  The competition gets a lot tougher for Missouri moving forward after having another easy game against UMass last week.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -6.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are the most improved team in the country.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and would be 6-0 ATS as long as you bet them early in Week 1.  When head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching job, one of his first stops was Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Big Ten Championship Game was being played the next day.

Cignetti went on Big Ten Network and said, "I figured I had to make this trip up here since we'll be playing in this game next year." His team has exuded that confidence all offseason and during the season, and they believe.  The Hoosiers have a great chance to get to 9-0 going into consecutive games against Michigan and Ohio State.

The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

But the Hoosiers have been equally impressive on the other side of the football.  They rank 14th in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game, 7th in total defense at 255.7 yards per game and 11th at 4.4 yards per play.  Nebraska also has a great defense, but they have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as Indiana.

The Huskers are 5-1 SU this season and have benefited from a very soft schedule with five home games against Rutgers, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP, and their lone road game coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  This will be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect them to be able to stay within a TD of the Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 50.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game.  That balance is what makes them so tough to tame.

The Indiana Hoosiers are vastly improved on offense this season thanks to having a 5-star QB in Dylan Raiola.  He is completing 67% of his passes for 1,358 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  He leads a Nebraska offense that averaging 28.0 points per game despite playing several games in tough wind conditions, some poor kicking and some poor red zone executioin.

Raiola and company are going to be forced to try and keep up with Indiana in a shootout.  The Huskers have pretty much held a lead for every second of every game this season and have been able to be methodical on offense.  They won't have that luxury this week because Indiana will get its points.

This is by far the best offense Nebraska has faced as their first six games have come against Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP with five of those six games coming at home, and their lone road game coming at Purdue.  Indiana has good defensive numbers like Nebraska, but that is largely due to the schedule as well having faced Northwestern, Maryland, Charlotte, UCLA, Western Illinois and Florida International.  I would argue Nebraska is the best offense they have faced if it's not Maryland.

The OVER is 5-0 in Indiana's last five games overall with 55 or more combined points in all five including 65 or more in four of them.  This 50.5-point total is very low for a game involving the Hoosiers.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday afternoon with no wind, no rain and temps in the 60's.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country and have gone 5-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 62 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in.  Now they are off their bye week and should have even more wrinkles offensively for Louisville this week.

Miami ranks 1st in the country in almost all major offensive categories including scoring (47.7 points per game), total offense (583.8 yards per game), yards per play (8.1) and passing offense (400 passing yards per game).  QB Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason, throwing for 2,219 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

Louisville's defense is absolutely gassed right now playing for a 5th consecutive week off four straight games that went down to the wire against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia.  They were on the field for 82 plays last week against Virginia and allowed 449 yards to their mediocre offense.  They gave up 34 points and 481 total yards to SMU the previous week.  They stand very little chance to slowing down this Miami offense this week.

Louisville will be forced to try to keep pace in a shootout.  The Cardinals have the goods offensively to do just that.  They rank 23rd in scoring at 36.2 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 461.8 yards per game and 14th at 7.2 yards per play.  Miami's defense was exposed in their last two games giving up 34 points to Virginia Tech and 38 to California, which both have mediocre offenses.  This Louisville offense will now be the best the Hurricanes have seen all season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 69, 81 and 79 combined points.  Louisville beat Miami 38-31 on the road last season in a game that saw 956 yards of total offense.  It will be more of the same in this meeting, especially with the forecast being perfect for scoring with no wind or rain and temps in the 60's this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn ML -118

The UConn Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season with their two losses both coming on the road to Maryland and Duke.  They rolled FAU 48-14 and Buffalo 47-3 at home before escaping with a 29-20 win over Temple.  They were a tired team going into that Temple game playing for a 6th consecutive week, and it was a bit of a letdown spot with Wake Forest on deck.

The Huskies got a much-needed bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Wake Forest.  No question they will come back highly motivated with this opportunity to play a team from the ACC, albeit one of the worst teams in the conference.

The spot is a poor one for Wake Forest.  Now it's the Demon Deacons that are the tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week.  They lost 41-38 at home to Louisiana, won 34-30 at NC State and then lost 49-14 at home to Clemson.  After playing those two games that came down to the wire, you could tell how fatigued they were especially defensively against Clemson.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to get up for this non-conference game against UConn, and I don't see them being able to do it.  UConn wants this one more and is in the better spot to get it.

A big reason UConn is so improve this season is thier offense, which averages 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They should be able to get whatever they want offensively against a Wake Forest defense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Demon Deacons rank 119th in scoring defense at 34.0 points per game, 127th at 478 yards per game allowed and 120th at 6.5 yards per play.

The Demon Deacons don't have their usual potent offense this season largely due to having the embattled Hank Bachmeier at quarterback.  They average fewer than 400 yards per game despite playing at the 12th-fasted tempo in college football.  I've never been a fan of Bachmeier dating back to his Boise State days.  UConn has an improved defense that allows 21.7 points per game, 339 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Huskies will get enough stops to preserve the lead.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oregon/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on Purdue +28.5

I was waiting for a 28 this week to back Purdue and we finally got it, and an even better 28.5 at Circa which I have released to premium clients as of Thursday.  This is a terrible spot for the Oregon Ducks, and I like what I saw from the Boilermakers last week enough to pull the trigger.

Oregon is in the flat spot of all flat spots.  The Ducks are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, upsetting Ohio State 32-31 at home as 3.5-point underdogs to take a commanding lead in the Big Ten title race.  They are fat and happy, and they are primed for a letdown here against Purdue.

The Boilermakers switched quarterbacks last week and head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties to try and save his job.  It worked wonders as the Boilermakers looked like a new team, taking Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 (OT) loss as 22.5-point road underdogs.

Freshman Ryan Browne made his first collegiate start at QB and threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 118 yards against what is a very good Illinois defense.  I think Browne gives this team new life, and his dual-threat ability will keep the Boilermakers coming for four quarters against Oregon this week.

Walters expressed frustration to his players about media calling out his team for quitting, and they responded. "I just talked to them about, I don't care what you're doing in life, where you're at, what your occupation is.  As a man, don't ever let the perception be that you quit when things got tough or that you quit when adversity hits.  In life, as in football, adversity is guaranteed. At a bare minimum it should be that you fight" Walters said.

Oregon's two road games have been short trips to Corvalis to face Oregon State and to Los Angeles to face UCLA.  This should be their toughest road test of the season, especially given the flat spot and the short week.  They aren't exactly keeping the foot on the gas offensively scoring 37 or fewer points in five of their six games, and if they don't top that number it's going to be very hard for them to cover this massive 28.5-point spread.  Plus, they will likely be without their best pass rusher in Jordan Burch, who suffered a knee injury.

Purdue has a bye on deck next week so they should be 'all in' here, plus I'm not worried about them being flat coming off an OT loss to Illinois considering it's a Top 5 Oregon team coming to town.  They are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and I think it will be much closer than this 28.5-point spread would indicate.  Bet Purdue Friday.

15* Broncos/Saints ATS ANNIHILATOR on Denver ML -125

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

The Broncos are capable of putting up a big number against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.

The reason I added the Broncos on the money line was the injury report for the Saints.  It's as bad as it gets, and New Orleans legitimately is the worst team in the NFL this week with the players they will be putting on the field.  

They are without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.  RG Caesar Ruiz is out as is C Erik McCoy.  Both QB Derek Carr and TE Taysom Hill have been ruled out.  Spencer Rattler will have his hands full going up against a Denver defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring at 16.0 points per game and 4th in total defense at 284.3 yards per game.  They will be without star CB Patrick Surtain II, but they are still good enough to hold Rattler and company in check.

I expect the Broncos to win somewhere in the 31-17 range, which will easily get us a win on them and the OVER.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Broncos/Saints Total DOMINATOR on OVER 36.5

I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short.  I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday.

Scoring is up in the NFL right now, and this is about as short a total as you will see in the NFL.  Especially for a game played inside a dome in perfect conditions.  I understand the reasons to be hesitant about these two offenses, but I think they can both have enough success against these two defenses to get up and over 36.5 combined points.

The Broncos are capable of covering this total on their own against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks.  They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week.

This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now.  The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago.  They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch.

Speaking of key injuries, the Broncos just lost their best defensive player and Defensive MVP candidate Patrick Surtain II to a concussion.  He obviously won't clear protocol in time to play Thursday and has already been ruled out.  They were already without LB Alex Singleton, who was their leading tackler before going down with injury.

Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games.  He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense.  I expect rookie Spencer Rattler to have enough success to contribute to the OVER cashing.  He led the Saints to 27 points against the Bucs in his first start last week.  He is boom-or-bust and could just as easily throw a pick-6 as a touchdown.  Bet Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State -2.5

The Sam Houston State Bearkats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They had a rude awakening in their first season at the FBS level last season, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2.

Sam Houston State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF.  They have four blowout wins all by 18 points or more, plus an impressive 40-39 upset win as 11.5-point underdogs over Texas State, which many felt would win the Sun Belt and possibly make the 12-team playoff this season.

Now the Bearkats will be motivated to prove they are a C-USA contender by taking down one of the favorites to win the conference in Western Kentucky tonight.  I like this WKU team, but this is a terrible spot for them as the Hilltoppers will be at a big rest disadvantage.

Indeed, Sam Houston State is coming off a bye week and last play on October 3rd, while Western Kentucky had to play UTEP on October 10th and only has five days in between games to get ready.  I fully expect the Bearkats to put to use this rest and preparation advantage, plus it should be a pretty hostile atmosphere in their favor with fans excited about this team after their 5-1 start.

Sam Houston has a big advantage on defense allowing 338 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, while WKU allows 385.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  It's pretty much a toss up offensively with Sam Houston averaging 401 yards per game and 5.5 per play while WKU averages 399 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The big advantages the Bearkats have in rest, preparation, defense and home field should lead them to winning this game by a field goal or more to cover this short 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday.

20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41

It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game.  Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed.

The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season.  They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed.  They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable.

The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game.  But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals.  This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets.

The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier.  They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play.

The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense.  They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game.  After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs.  Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards.

Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury.  Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well.  WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks.

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five.  The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points.  He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others.  They have nine defenders on the IR already.

Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week.  The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace.  Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3

The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys.  They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago.  They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat.  They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys.  This is the week they say enough is enough.

Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did.  They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season.  But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division.  The Lions will be all business this week.

But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything.  Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence.  The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to.  They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190.  And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense.

This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys.  They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot.  It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning.  They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result.  The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week.  They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh.  The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy.

Reinforcements are on the way now.  Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week.  QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now.  They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start.  They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7.  Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense.  Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas.  The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game.

Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now.  They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR.  WR Josh Reynolds is out as well.  This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now.  They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed.

The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot.  Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries.  Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140

I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints.  I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage.

This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now.  They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since.

Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz.  Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well.  Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well.  They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night.

The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game.  They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield.  There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.

The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week.  I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start.  The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks.  Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco.  They are expected to start Richardson this week.  They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable.  Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going.

The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL.  Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play.  They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor.  Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7

What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again.

The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted.  The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted.  They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs.  And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites.

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks.  They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks.  I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week.  They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins.  The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points.  In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career.  We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5

Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry.  He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league.

Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play.  The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively.  Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week.  

The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well.  Both are dead nuts OVER teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5

The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now.  They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week.  They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker.

The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season.  Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan.  He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense.  The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit.

Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense.  This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play.  They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44

The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle.  They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks.

Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago.  He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards.

Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed.  They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season.

The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary.  They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem.  I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills.

The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts.  Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week.  Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense.

They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London.  SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out.  Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing.  This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning.  Bet the OVER in London.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon.  RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well.  With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result.

This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island.  Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games.

Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat.  The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week.  QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week.

Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game.  The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack.

Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team.  The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense.  They will never be out of this game.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3

This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers.  I think the wrong team is favored here.  This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys.

Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa.  They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense.  The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers.

Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter.  The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away.  It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week.  And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week.

While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week.  They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards.  They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result.

Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0.  I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5

I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week.  They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels.  This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks.  After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week.

But that was a misleading win against South Carolina.  They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards.  Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury.  They scored just 3 points after intermission.  Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD.  He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier.

LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series.  I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in.  Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5

The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener.  That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week.

The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M.  They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs.  That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing.  Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall.

Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma.  The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury.  They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense.

Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites.  The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it.  That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well.  They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air.

Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago.  That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread.  The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings.  Bet Florida Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps.  They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State.

UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross.  This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army.

Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing.  I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense.  Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34

The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season.  They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.

Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week.  They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all.

That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread.  The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season.

I like the spot for Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby.  He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team.  I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs.

Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense.  He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts.  I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive.  Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses.  He won't be phased by Georgia.

24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week.

BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy.  Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter.

The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech.  They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities.  They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week.

These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team.  Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home.  The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well.  They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Bet BYU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5

The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week.

The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week.  Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity.  They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road.

Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss.  They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game.  The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia.  I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game.  They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender.

Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points.  The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week.  The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road.  They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week.

But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt.  The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town.  They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill.

The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory.  I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss.  It's the type of loss that beats a team twice.

Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time.  They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami.  Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country.

Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense.  He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores.  The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45

Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five.  That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points.

The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country.  QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana.

Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points.  QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass.  He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries.

This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them.  Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3

I like backing elite teams who are motivated.  That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks.  The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0.  If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here.

The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals.  They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23.  They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24.  They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them.

Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers.  They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game.  They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle.

The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.  I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle.  I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.

This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks.  They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing.  They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense.

The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II.  LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful.  S Love is limited and will likely play.  Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday.  They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football.  

Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence.  The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points.  The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better.  I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number.

The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5

The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.  Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5.  They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense.

We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl.  But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way.  Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade.  They are relying on defense now more than ever.

This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs.  They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line.  The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one.

The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen.  The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game.  Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD.

Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst.  That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys.

The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed.  The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived.

The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy.  But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants.  Both will not play this week.  CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR.  Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense.

We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago.  The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them.  Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground.  Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games.  He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it.

The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week.  Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points.  He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys.  The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards.  This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air.  This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys.  Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss.  Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks.  They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.  Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon.

Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks.  They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries.  They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert.

This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday.  So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks.  Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win.  The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win.

The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4.  It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record.  That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29.  Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth.

Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love.  FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable.  The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one.

I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks.  After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks.  

They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win.  They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return.  They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit.  They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards.

The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season.  They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home.  The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road.

The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season.  Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games.  He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense.  Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games.  The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.

No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku.  They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return.  They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed.  

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs.  They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's.  I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona.  They have punted just once in the last three weeks.  They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for.

Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games.  Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season.  He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot.  Daniels is making all the right decisions right now.

The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns.  They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby.  They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense.

Watson has been abysmal.  He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league.  Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders.  It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders.

Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road.  They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants.  Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon.  It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime.

Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season.  The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week.  They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week.  The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive.  

Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable.  This line should be much closer to -7 than -3.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL.  The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback.

They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns.  They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold.  Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense.

But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game.  Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries.  They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week.  Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury.  NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games.  DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR.

Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week.  He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points.  He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons.  De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week.  I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5

San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis.  He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map.

It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games.

But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week.  They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan.  But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed.  That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week.

In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low.  We will take advantage.  Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season.  They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa.  They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better.

San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points.  All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER.  And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast.  San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5

San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season.  They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller.  They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game.  They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream.

Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.  They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game.

Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense.  San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up.  Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively.  This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145

The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now.  If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan.  We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night.

I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards.  But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday.  Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards.  

The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night.  They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year.  While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season.

Washington has elite numbers.  The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play.  QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks.  They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense.

The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game.  Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season.  The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them.  Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season.  It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night.  Bet Washington on the Money Line.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one.  They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet.  I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result.

Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards.  They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah.  They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss.  And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State.

Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent.  After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team.  I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today.

The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game.  They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas.  Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none.

Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed.  West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys.  

They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas.  They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes.  They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5

Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now.  The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football.  Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats.

Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play.  The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play.  So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3.  We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week.

It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons.  But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week.  The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie.

It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons.  They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky.  They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama.  They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team.

Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs.  And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good.  The value is too good to pass up here.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5

Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line.  The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up.

Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37.  The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites.  They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play.  They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play.

Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year.  They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play.  They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington.  

The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24.  They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play.  They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps.  It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks.

They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory.  Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week.

East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks.

Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5

The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners.  They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game.  That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win.

Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites.  There was nothing fluky about any of those wins.  They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well.

Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt.  QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history.  He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact.

I've been equally impressed with this Army defense.  The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game.  They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday.  Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa.

Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks.  After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State.  Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech.  And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas.

I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games.  I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins.  It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game.  You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already?  The answer is no.  This one will get away from them in a hurry.  Bet Army Saturday.

25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5

The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season.  This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years.

Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play.  They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game.  They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago.

Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history.  They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play.  This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite.

That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons.  The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare.  And this Wyoming team is hot garbage.  The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU.

Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series.  It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion.  The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Syracuse/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels showed how much more potent they can be with Hajj-Malik Williams at quarterback in their 59-14 beat down of Fresno State last week.  They finally have a passing game as Williams completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he proved he can handle the load on the ground as well with 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

But this UNLV defense being improved is the reason they are a contender to make the 12-team playoff.  The Rebels rank 20th in the country in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They are 30th in total defense at 309.5 yards per game and they only allow 4.8 yards per play as well.

This is a much more favorable spot for UNLV than it is for Syracuse.  The Rebels had a bye prior to last week and then got to host Fresno State last week.  They have been home for three straight weeks.  Syracuse has played each of the last two weeks at home against Stanford and Holy Cross, actually getting upset by the Cardinal on Friday Night two weeks ago.  Now they have to travel all the way out West to Las Vegas and play on a short week.

This will be the first road game of the season for Syracuse.  They have benefited from a very soft home schedule of Ohio, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Holy Cross.  This will be by far their stiffest test of the season, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.  Syracuse is just 12-34 SU in its last 46 road games over the last nine seasons.  It's a tough spot for a first-year head coach trying to get his troops ready in time to face this red-hot UNLV team.

UNLV is now 18-4 ATS in 22 games under current head coach Barry Odom.  The books just cannot seem to catch up to how good this team really is.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +10.5

The spot really favors the UTEP Miners Thursday night.  They should not be catching double-digits given the spot being so heavily in their favor tonight, and we'll take advantage.

UTEP has a first-year head coach in Scotty Walden who comes over from Austin Peay and brought several of his players with him.  But the leftover players still needed to learn his systems, and it was going to take some time.  Well, UTEP got a bye last week, and bye weeks are more beneficial to first-year coaches than any other coaches.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTEP after opening 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS against a pretty difficult schedule.  Three of the losses came on the road to Nebraska, Liberty and Colorado State.  Nebraska is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, Liberty is a team that many feel will go unbeaten and make the four-team playoff, and Colorado State is no pushover.

After giving Liberty all they wanted in a 28-10 loss as 24-point dogs, UTEP put up a good fight in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as 9-point dogs last time out.  The Miners made a switch at QB midway through that game and went to veteran Cade McConnell, who injected life into this offense going 19-of-29 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns.  McConnell will be the starter moving forward, and getting the bye week to take all the first-team reps will be greatly beneficial to him and this offense.

But this play is as much a fade of Sam Houston State as anything.  The Bearkats are grossly overvalued right now after starting 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, and they are in the ultimate letdown spot.  Three wins came against Rice, Hawaii and New Mexico State with a 45-14 loss at UCF.  Those first three teams are three of the worst in all of college football.

No question the 40-39 win over Texas State last Saturday was impressive.  The Bearkats came back from a 22-0 deficit to beat the Bobcats 40-39 on a last-second field goal.  They used a ton of energy to come back and pull off that upset against their in-state rivals, and now I question how much they will have left in the tank.  

The Bearkats will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are now on a short week to boot, only getting 4 days to recover in between games.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat 0-4 UTEP this week in this clear flat spot.  QB Hunter Watson rushed 27 times for 105 yards in that win and has to at least be a little banged up with how much they use him in the running game.  The Miners are live underdogs here tonight.  Bet UTEP Thursday.

15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta ML -120

I like the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 2-2 on the season trailing the Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) for first place in the NFC South.  They don't want to fall essentially three games behind with a loss, so they will be max motivated for a win.

I like the fact that the Falcons played at home on Sunday and get to stay at home, so there is no travel involved.  That is crucial for them on this short week.  The Bucs don't have the same luxury having to travel up from Tampa Bay, and it's always tougher on the road team for these short week games.

The Falcons are also a lot healthier than the Bucs right now.  It looks like the Falcons will get RT Kaleb McGary back this week as he returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday.  RB Bijan Robinson and WR Ray-Ray McCloud III also got in limited practices.  The only key player the Falcons will likely be missing is ILB Troy Anderson, who missed practice Tuesday after suffering a knee injury last week.

The Bucs have nine starters either questionable or out, and four backups either questionable or out.  WR Jalen McMillan, WR Trey Palmer, DL Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield all did not practice on Tuesday and are likely out.  WR Mike Williams, OT Tristan Wirfs and NT Vita Vea all got in limited practices and are likely to go.  The Bucs placed ILB SirVocea Dennis on injured reserve.

The Bucs are getting too much respect for beating the Eagles 33-16 last week.  That was an Eagles team missing their two best weapons in AJ Brown and DaVante Smith plus their best offensive linemen in LT Lane Johnson.  The Eagles were handicapped offensively and it showed.  Keep in mind the Bucs lost to the Broncos 26-7 the previous week, and they were outgained by 463 to 216 by the Lions in a fraudulent Week 2 win.  They have benefited from playing three of their first four games at home.

The Falcons have been impressive the last three weeks.  They upset the Eagles 22-21 on the road in Week 2, and that was an Eagles team that was a lot healthier at the time than the one the Bucs faced last week.  They were a missed pass interference call away from likely upsetting the Kansas City Chiefs at home in a 22-17 defeat.  And last week they gutted out a 26-24 home win over the New Orleans Saints.  They got two non-offensive touchdowns in the win, but they still outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.2 yards per play for the game, so it wasn't as fluky as a lot of people are making it out to be.

The motivation, the situation and the injuries favor Atlanta in this one.  Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Seahawks/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR Detroit -4

The Detroit Lions will be max motivated tonight.  They want revenge from a 37-31 (OT) loss to the Seahawks in 2023 and a 48-45 loss in 2022.  In fact, they have lost six straight to the Seahawks in this series.  They are also trailing the 3-0 Seahawks in the NFC standings, plus they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for a win here tonight.

The Seahawks have played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2.  Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites.  The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half.

To say this will be a step up in class for the Seahawks would be a massive understatement.  Now they face a Detroit Lions team with elite numbers thus far and should be 3-0 if not for going 1-for-7 in the red zone in an upset loss to the Bucs.  The Lions rank 4th in total offense at 399.7 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 293.3 yards per game.  Their improvement on defense this season is the reason the Lions are a real Super Bowl contender.

The Seahawks have a solid offense this season, but their offensive line is a weakness and this Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will be a problem for them.  Seattle has a defensive-minded head coach in Mike McDonald and a solid defense, but this is a defense that is missing several key players that the Lions will exploit, especially up the middle trying to stop the run.  

Seattle will be without starting DE Leonard Williams, starting WLB Uchenna Nwoso and starting SLB Boye Mafe.  They are also without two key depth pieces in NT Cameron Young and DE Byron Murhpy II.  I think Detroit will wear them down with their running game, which has produced 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry thus far this season.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* Bills/Ravens NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML -140

I think the Bills and Ravens are two pretty equal teams despite their records.  Buffalo is 3-0 while Baltimore is 1-2.  And those records are the reason we are getting the Ravens at a discount, and also the reason the Ravens will be the much more motivated team knowing they can't afford to fall to 1-3 and three games behind the Bills with a loss.

The Bills are 3-0 while benefitting from a very easy schedule.  They needed a double-digit comeback to beat the best team they played in Arizona 34-28 as 7-point favorites in Week 1.  They took advantage of three interceptions by Tagovailoa and an injury to him in their 31-10 win in Week 2.  And last week they took advantage of a banged up Jaguars team that played man-to-man defense the entire game against Josh Allen, who owns man-to-man defense. This will be far and away the toughest challenge of the season for the Bills, plus they are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have played the much tougher schedule and could easily be 3-0.  They lost 27-20 to the Chiefs in Week 1 despite outgaining them 452 to 353.  They lost 26-23 to the Raiders despite outgaining them 383 to 260 in Week 2.  And last week they showed that sense of urgency that they will show today as well, jumping on the Cowboys 28-6 going into the 4th quarter before calling off the dogs.  That was a misleading 28-25 final as the Cowboys scored three times in garbage time.  The Ravens had 456 total yards on the Cowboys.

The Ravens have elite numbers, ranking 1st in total offense at 430.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They allow 341.7 yards per game and that number would be much loser if not for those yards given up to the Cowboys in garbage time.  What makes these numbers that much more impressive is that they have faced the much tougher schedule.  Buffalo is only outgaining teams by 42 yards per game against a much softer schedule.

The Ravens will play more zone coverage and make life tougher on Allen and this limited Buffalo offense.  The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL, and the weakness of the Bills is up the middle stopping the run.  They are wtihout their two best LB's in Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.  They are also without CB Taron Johnson.  The Bills haven't faced a rushing offense nearly this potent this season, so I like the matchup for the Ravens a lot in this one.

Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog in his career.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* Browns/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Las Vegas ML -120

This is the one premium pick Sunday I likely won't get a better number on game day.  I went in on the Raiders ML -120 when I found out the injury situation for the Browns.  But since I published this pick the Raiders have gotten some bad injury news as they will be without both WR Davante Adams and DE Maxx Crosby, which are two of their best players.  That came out of nowhere.

I still think the Raiders are good enough to win this game with what they have.  The Browns have seven offensive linemen on the injury report, and OL injuries are a big reason Deshaun Watson has looked as poorly as he has.  They will be without their two starting offensive tackles in Willis and Conklin, plus TE David Njoku is out again this week as well.

Watson is completing just 57.8% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt through three games.  They lost 33-17 to the Cowboys at home in Week 1, were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 18-13 in Week 2, and were upset 21-15 by the Giants at home in Week 3.  Those performances against the Giants and Jaguars don't look as good now with those teams a combined 1-5, and the Cowboys are in rough shape this season as well.  Those are three of the worst defenses in the NFL the Browns got to face, and the Browns still rank just 31st in total offense at 248.0 yards per game and 31st at 4.1 yards per play.

The Raiders had every opportunity to beat the Chargers in a 16-10 home loss in Week 1.  They pulled off the 26-23 upset at Baltimore as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2, and that win has aged very well.  Last week they suffered an obvious letdown coming back home from that Baltimore win.  They lost 36-22 to the Carolina Panthers, who were rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at QB.

Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce called out his players for making 'business decisions' in that loss to the Panthers.  His players love him, and I expect them to respond in a big way here Sunday.  Despite the injuries, I think the Raiders are still good enough to find a way to win this game against the Browns, whose injury situation may be even worse.  DE Myles Garrett isn't right and is playing through injury as well.  Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Commanders/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5

I gave out the OVER 48.5 on Sunday night.  I was on the Commanders/Bengals OVER 47 in the Monday Night Football game and I anticipated a high-scoring game and that this total would open higher. That's what we got with 71 combined points between the Bengals and Commanders.  It has indeed opened higher, but it's still not high enough.  I find value in the OVER at least up to the key number of 51.

The Commanders and Cardinals may very well have the two worst defenses in the NFL.  The Commanders rank 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed despite facing two of the worst offenses in the Giants and Bucs.  They are allowing 29.3 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively and have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.

The Cardinals allowed 34 points to the Bills in their opener.  They had the fortune of playing the Rams who were decimated by injuries on offense in Week 2 and won 41-10.  The Lions moved it up and down the field on them last week with 373 total yards including 187 rushing.  They went ground and pound and just controlled the game with their running game and defense, which is one of the best in the NFL this season.

The Cardinals have faced two elite defenses in the Bills and Lions, and the one game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams they hung 41 points.  They will come close to hanging that on the Commanders as well.  Kyler Murray looks like his old electric self, using his legs a lot more this season to make plays, and he finally has a No. 1 target in Marvin Harrison Jr. who has scored 3 TD in his last two games.  James Conner will have a big game in this one on the ground as well.

This Washington offense has been on fire with Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels at quarterback.  They became the first team in NFL history to not punt and or turn the ball over once in two consecutive games.  They haven't punted since there was 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter in Week 1 against the Bucs.

In fact, the Commanders have put together 14 straight scoring drives since Week 1 when you throw out them kneeling before the half against the Bengals, who also didn't punt last week.  Daniels went 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards and 2 TD against the Bengals, while also rushing for 39 yards and a score.  He is now completing 80.3% of his passes on the season while also rushing for 171 yards and three scores.

This game has shootout written all over it with two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay ML -125

The Green Bay Packers are likely to get Jordan Love back at QB this week.  If they do, they won't be only -125 favorites on the Money Line, and they will likely be -3 or higher on the spread.  I grabbed this number Sunday night with the anticipation that Love would be back this week.

Either way, the Packers look like a juggernaut this season.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is one of the most improved in the NFL.  They beat the Colts 16-10 in Week 2 with Malik Willis at quarterback.  They beat Tennessee 30-14 in Week 3 as Willis got revenge on his former team.  That was a desperate Titans team looking to avoid an 0-3 start, so it was mighty impressive.

There will be no letdown spot for the Packers here considering they are 2-1 and actually trailing the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings in the division.  And now it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are getting a lot of hype due to this 3-0 start with a road win over the Giants, and home wins over both the Vikings and Texans.

The Vikings are 3-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 19 yards per game.  I don't think they are as good as their record.  To compare, the Packers are outgaining opponents by 63 yards per game.  Minnesota has had a lot of turnover luck thus far and I don't think it continues this week.  This will be their toughest test of the season against a Packers team that has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Bet the Packers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Bucs UNDER 46

Injuries to this Philadelphia offense are a big reason I'm on the UNDER 46 here.  I grabbed this number Sunday night anticipating it would get bet down, and we got a great number here because of it.  The total is down to 42.5 and 43 in most places as of this writing Saturday morning.

The Eagles were already without AJ Brown last week.  Then they lost DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson to concussions in an ugly 15-12 win at New Orleans.  They are going to have to get used to trying to win ugly with their running game until they get healthy on offense again.  They will be without Smith this week, and Brown and Johnson are both questionable.

The Bucs have injury problems of their own on offense with WR Jalen McMillan out for this one, and RB Bucky Irving and RT Luke Goedeke questionable.  The Bucs rank 26th in total offense at 277 yards per game.  The Broncos beat them 26-7 last week as their offense was completely held in check.  Now they'll be going up against an improved Philadelphia defense that is hungry for revenge after losing 32-9 to the Bucs in the playoffs last year.  It's a Philadelphia defense that held the Saints to 12 points last week, a Saints offense that was the best in the NFL through two weeks.

The Bucs were without Vita Vea last week and he's arguably their most important defensive player.  Vea is expected to be back this week, and that's huge going up against this one-dimensional Philadelphia rushing attack.  He is one of the best run-stuffers in the NFL.  This is a Tampa Bay defense that held the Lions to 16 points and the Commanders to 20 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the NFL.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Saints/Falcons NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Saints were rolling to a 2-0 start with blowout wins over the Cowboys and Panthers.  Everything was looking up for this team, and then a 15-12 home loss to the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles happened last week.  The Saints suffered a ton of key injuries in that loss to boot, and those injuries are a big reason I am fading them today.

The Saints were fortunate to even be in that game against the Eagles, who outgained them 460 to 219, or by 241 total yards.  Giving up 460 yards to the Eagles is a terrible look when you consider they were without star WR AJ Brown, and they lost both WR DeVonta Smith and LT Lane Johnson to concussions.  The Saints basically just needed to stop TE Dallas Goedert on the final drive to seal the win, and they couldn't do it.

The Saints lost two starting offensive linemen in that game last week.  C Erik McCoy was far and away their best offensive lineman, and now he is on IR.  G Cesar Ruiz is out as well.  Things are so bad that the Saints brought in five offensive linemen earlier this week to work out.

The bad injury news for the Saints didn't stop there.  Now their two best playmakers on offense in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave are questionable to play Sunday.  Fellow starting WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable, and backup WR A.J. Perry is out.  Defensively, MLB Demario Davis is out and he hasn't missed a start in 13 years.  He is the leader of their defense and a big blow on that side of the football.

The Atlanta Falcons are remarkably healthy through three games with their main loss being RT Kaleb McGary.  They are also highly motivated for a win this week considering they are trailing the Saints by one game in the NFC South and don't want to fall two games back.  I also like the improvements I've seen from this team since their 18-12 Week 1 home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons gutted out a 22-21 win at Philadelphia in Week 2 with a huge game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins in the final seconds.  Cousins looked lost in Week 1 against a very good Pittsburgh defense, but he has since looked better each week and this offense has a lot of confidence in him.

Cousins and the Falcons deserved better in a 22-17 home loss to the defending champion Chiefs as 3-point underdogs in Week 3.  The refs missed a pass interference call in the end zone that would have eventually given the Falcons a late lead.  They showed they could play with the defending champs, and while this would usually be the type of loss that could beat a team twice, it won't be this week given the situation.  

The Falcons have to quickly refocus with a division opponent coming to town in the Saints, who they are trailing in the standings.  I expect the Falcons to handle their business against the short-handed Saints in this one.  I grabbed Atlanta -1 as soon as I saw the injury news for the Saints, and I would still play them up to -3.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears PK

This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot.  The Chicago Bears are coming off two consecutive losses on the road to the Texans by 6 and the Colts by 5.  But now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off their shocking 14-point comeback win at home over the San Francisco 49ers as 7-point underdogs.  Off a win against their biggest rivals, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Rams.

Both results last week were misleading which is providing us line value this week on the Bears as well.  The Bears outgained the Colts 395 to 306 but lost 21-16.  Caleb Willams threw for 363 yards and 2 TD to show what he is capable of, and I think he's in line for his best game of the season this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Rams.

The Rams beat the 49ers 27-24 despite getting outgained 425 to 296 by San Francisco.  They had no business winning that game.  This came a week after losing 41-10 at Arizona while getting outgained 489 to 245 by the Cardinals.

Simply put, the Rams have the worst injury situation in the NFL right now.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  Their offensive line is banged up, and their defense is banged up and terrible as it is.  The Rams rank dead last in the NFL allowing 425.7 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.

The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th allowing 286.7 yards per game and 9th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  They are 10th in scoring defense at 19.0 points per game as well.  They have the better defense, are the much healthier team, and have home-field advantage, so this game should not be PK.

I locked this line in at PK Sunday night assuming the Bears would take money and they have since with the line up to -3 as of this writing.  I would still play it up to -3.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -11

There's no game atmosphere quite like Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on a Saturday night.  The Utah Utes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country as it is, and that is magnified for night games.  Utah is 33-2 SU in its last 35 home games.

That's why I'm not worried about Utah having a letdown following their big 22-19 win at Oklahoma State last week.  The Cowboys trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Arizona is a team that profiles similar to Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats play no defense and rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football.  They will get mauled at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, and we've already seen this happen to them in their lone road game this season against a team that profiles similar to Utah.

Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State last time out.  The Wildcats gave up 235 rushing yards to Kansas State.  I'm not worried that the Utes will be playing backup QB Isaac Wilson.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 207 yards and a TD, while also rushing for 41 yards on six carries while handling the atmosphere at Oklahoma State very well last week.  Bernard rushed for 182 yards as the Utes rushed for 249 as a team in that game.  They will get whatever they want on the ground against Arizona.

Arizona wasn't sharp in the two games prior to Kansas State, either.  The Wildcats only beat New Mexico 61-39 as 28-point favorites.  They gave up 470 total yards to the Lobos, who were playing their first game with a new head coach.  In their 2nd game, they barely beat Northern Arizona 22-10 as 37-point favorites.  They actually trailed 10-6 at halftime in that contest.  There's just not a lot to like about this Arizona team after losing many of their players and their head coach to Washington.  Brent Brennan may be in over his head this season, and he certainly is this week.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Washington State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 64

Two of the best offenses in the country go up against two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday night when Washington State visits Boise State.  Washington State wants to play fast ranking 15th in the country in seconds per play.  Boise ranks 41st in the same category and plays faster than average as well.

Boise State is averaging 48.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play ranking in the Top 10 in the country in all three categories.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the country in rushing at 311.3 yards per game.  The Broncos should get what they want against a Washington State defense that ranks 128th in the country allowing 470.8 yards per game along with 6.1 yards per play.

Washington State ranks 10th in the country at 515.2 yards per game while averaging 7.5 yards per play.  They have a balanced attack with 225 rushing yards per game and 291 passing yards per game.  They'll be up against a Boise State defense that allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern and 37 points to Oregon.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no chance of precipitation in Boise Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +24

What more does Michigan State have to do to get some respect? The Spartans are 3-1 SU this season including a 27-24 road win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs.  They dominated that game outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.

In their lone loss this season, Michigan State outgained Boston College 368 to 292, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference in their 23-19 defeat as 5-point road dogs.  That's a Boston College team that nearly upset Missouri in a 27-21 road loss and did upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs.

Ohio State is getting too much respect for three blowout wins against overmatched opponents.  The Buckeyes have faced the 168th-ranked schedule in the country.  Their three wins have come against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall and all three were at home, plus they failed to cover the spread in two of them.  I think they'll get more of a test from the Spartans than they bargained for this week in their first road game.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  They have an elite defense that ranks 14th allowing 254.8 yards per game, 29th against the run allowing 96.8 yards per game, and 14th allowing 2.6 yards per carry.  That's impressive considering they have played the much tougher schedule.  Ohio State wants to run the football, and the Spartans will offer plenty of resistance.

QB Aidan Chiles has kept this Michigan State offense afloat.  He has thrown for 891 yards while also rushing for 95 yards and three scores in four games.  I expect him to make enough plays to keep the Spartans competitive for four quarters, plus they can rely on a running game that averages 153.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry thus far.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UCF -13.5

I grabbed UCF -13.5 earlier in the week and it's playable up to -14.  This game has blowout written all over it.  The Bounce House is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and you know fans will be revved up with Deion Sanders and Colorado coming to town.

The Knights are loaded this season with 15 returning starters and a serious contender in the Big 12 under Gus Malzahn.  This is his best team yet, especially with the addition of QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season including an upset win at TCU.

The Knights have since had a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Colorado to give them a big advantage in rest and preparation.  The Knights are loaded offensively ranking 3rd in total offense at 570.7 yards per game including 1st in rushing at 375.7 yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They will run wild on this soft Colorado defense, and they'll be able to keep piling on the points late with this rushing attack to pull away.

This is a terrible spot for Colorado.  They are coming off a 38-31 (OT) win at Baylor in which they needed a hail mary on the final play of regulation just to get into OT.  They scored first, and Baylor fumbled going into the end zone.  The Buffaloes celebrated like they won the National Championship afterward, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank this week for UCF.

We saw Colorado step up in class on the road earlier this season at Nebraska in a 28-10 defeat.  They trailed 28-0 at halftime and it was over before it started.  I think that will be the case this week.  UCF knows they just have to stop the pass because Colorado cannot run the ball, and they have a very good pass rush.  They will be prepared to stop QB Sanders and WR Hunter in this one.  The Buffaloes just don't have much else, and their lack of depth defensively will really get tested in this one as the Knights keep pounding the rock.

Temps will be in the 80's so the Buffaloes will wear out faster.  Plus, there is a very good chance of rain, and the team that can run the football will fare better in these conditions.  This just sets up perfectly for a blowout in favor of the Knights.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/ECU OVER 53.5

Two teams that want to play fast square off when UTSA visits East Carolina Saturday.  East Carolina ranks 4th in the country in seconds per play, while UTSA ranks 11th.  This total of 53.5 is too low for two offenses that want to play this fast.

UTSA clearly has an awful defense this season.  The Miners allowed 56 points to Texas and 49 points to Texas State.  East Carolina hasn't exactly turned their yards into points yet this season, but I think they will this week with their best offensive output of the season against the soft Miners.

UTSA got their offense going last week with 45 points.  I think they will find success against a ECU defense that allowed 35 points to Liberty last week.  Plus, the Pirates just lost their best defensive player to a season-ending injury prior to that game, CB Shavon Revel Jr. who was going to be a high NFL draft pick.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -14.5

Kent State is the worst team in college football and it's not close.  The Golden Flashes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  They are scoring 10.2 points per game and averaging 167.5 yards per game while allowing 51.2 points per game and 607.5 yards per game.  They are getting outscored by 40.0 points per game and getting outgained by 440 yards per game.

They are beat up right now after losing 55-24 to Pittsburgh, 23-17 to St. Francis PA, 71-0 to Tennessee and 56-0 to Penn State.  They are without their top two quarterbacks in Kargman and Sherrod and are already down to their 3rd-stringer, who has completing 1-of-7 passes on the season.

Eastern Michigan is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Eagles are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with a 28-14 win at UMass as 2.5-point dogs, a 30-9 loss at Washington as 24.5-point dogs, a 37-34 (OT) win over Jacksonville State as 2.5-point dogs, and a 36-0 win over St. Francis PA as 25.5-point favorites.

So these teams already have a common opponent in St. Francis PA.  Eastern Michigan beat them 36-0 and held them to 154 total yards while outgaining them by 173 yards.  Kent State lost to them 23-17 while allowing 404 yards and getting outgained by 124 yards.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

15* Fresno State/UNLV MWC ANNIHILATOR on UNLV ML -120

This line has dropped from UNLV -4.5 all the way down to nearly a PK due to the news that QB Matt Sluka would redshirt and sit out the rest of the season.  It's too big of an adjustment when you consider UNLV's offense was limited by Sluka who was a 43% passer.

Many believe backup Hajj-Malik Williams should have been the starter from the jump as these two were in a fierce battle all the way through fall camp.  Williams threw for 8,248 yards and 58 touchdowns at Campbell prior to coming here and he is the much better passer, plus he can also get it done on the ground, tho he's not as physical a runner as Sluka.

UNLV's captain LB tweeted out 'bout time let's ride' when he heard the news that Sluka elected to sit out paving the way for Williams.  UNLV"s best receiver in Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year, tweeted out that Williams would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in this game.  His team clearly has his back, and I believe this is one of those situations where Williams' teammates rally around him for a big performance.

UNLV has been led by its defense this season anyway.  The Rebels are one of the most improved defenses in the country allowing 13.7 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  Barry Odom is a defensive-minded head coach and he finally has his players in place.  They are balling out on D this season.

Now the Rebels are fresh and ready to go coming off their bye week since upsetting Kansas 23-20 as 9-point road dogs last time out.  They are out for revenge on Fresno State after losing 31-24 to the Broncos as 10.5-point road dogs last season.  The Bulldogs had no business winning that game as the Rebels outgained them 424 to 312, or by 112 total yards.

Fresno State used a lot of energy in putting away New Mexico 38-21 on the road last week.  This was one of the most misleading final scores last week.  New Mexico outgained Fresno State 485 to 345, or by 140 total yards.  That's a very bad look allowing that many yards to New Mexico.  Their defense was on the field for 81 plays and that will carry over to this week.  I love the spot for the Rebels.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  Curt Cignetti brought a lot of players with him from James Madison and brought in some more great recruits, and the early results are impressive.

The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet Indiana early in Week 1.  They beat FIU 31-7 as 26-point home favorites, Western Illinois 77-3 as 45-point home favorites, UCLA 42-13 as 3.5-point road favorites and Charlotte 52-14 as 28.5-point home favorites.

That win over UCLA looks even better now after UCLA went on the road last week and only lost by 17 at LSU.  The Hoosiers are a real contender in the Big Ten, and we'll keep getting them at a discount until the oddsmakers and betting public realize it.

Maryland is a rebuilding team this season.  The Terrapins lost all of their top playmakers on offense including their all-everything QB in Tagovailoa.  They have wins over Virginia, UConn and Villanova, but when they stepped up in class they lost 27-24 as 8.5-point home favorites to Michigan State.  They were outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 yards by the Spartans.

Now the Terrapins face their toughest test of the season here on the road against Indiana, which is backed by an excited fan base and will have a bigger home-field advantage than normal because of it.  If they gave up 484 yards to an average Michigan State offense, you can imagine what this Indiana offense is going to do to them.  

The Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game, 513.8 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing 9.2 points per game, 199.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Kansas State UNDER 56

One look at the recent head-to-head history between Oklahoma State and Kansas State and it's easy to see there's value on the UNDER 56 in this one.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 51 or fewer combined points in all six meetings.  It will be more of the same here.

I expect Kansas State to control this game playing from ahead.  The Wildcats are a methodical running team that relies on running the football and playing defense to win games.  They rush for 240 yards per game and only throw for 160 yards per game.  They allow just 297 yards per game on the season.

We saw Utah stymie this Oklahoma State offense last week holding them to 3 points with less than 6 minutes to play before the Cowboys scored two touchdowns with two 2-point conversions in the final six minutes for a 22-19 final.  Kansas State profiles similar to Utah and will do the same.

We saw Kansas State play a team with a similar profile to Oklahoma State earlier this season.  Kansas State beat Arizona 31-7 at home.  Arizona is known for a high-powered offense that plays little defense.  Kansas State controlled this game playing from ahead and it saw just 38 combined points.  It will be more of the same here against the Cowboys.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State -4

I grabbed K-State -4 earlier this week and it's playable all the way up to -6.5.  I love the spot for the Wildcats.  They are coming off an embarrassing, misleading 38-9 loss at BYU in a late-night game in Provo where it's very tough to win.  I had BYU +7.5 in that game and it was one of my 20* Top Plays.

But that game was a lot closer than the final score.  Kansas State settled for a couple short field goals early to keep the Cougars in it.  They scored 17 unanswered points in two minutes right before halftime to bust it open.  One was a 30-yard fumbled return TD.  Later in the 2nd half they got a 90-yard punt return TD that was one of the craziest returns you'll ever see.

Kansas State actually outgained BYU 357 to 241 for the game, or by 116 total yards.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed that punt return TD, which was the difference.  Their defense and running game remains elite, and that will be the difference in this game Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 36th in total defense allowing 297.5 yards per game.  They face an Oklahoma State team that doesn't play defense, ranking 126th in the country allowing 461 yards per game.  You could tell this defense was going to be bad when they allowed 648 total yards to Arkansas in a very fortunate OT win where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards.

Oklahoma State is coming off a misleading 22-19 home loss to Utah and their backup QB last week.  They trailed 22-3 with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  They managed to score two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions in the final 6 minutes to make the final look closer than it really was.  They were outgained 456 to 285 by Utah, or by 171 total yards.  And keep in mind their offense was held to just over 100 yards before those final two TD drives.

Now Oklahoma State goes up against another team with a very similar profile to Utah.  They are a team that plays elite defense and runs the football.  The Cowboys are allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in defending the run.  The Wildcats will run wild on them.

Offensively, the Cowboys are lost at the QB position.  Alan Bowman got benched last week before returning late in the game.  They cannot run the ball despite coming into the season with one of the best backs in the country in Ollie Gordon.  They rank 115th in rushing at 96.2 yards per game and 109th at 3.3 yards per carry.  They are a one-dimensional passing attack and the Wildcats will be ready for it.

Kansas State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less under current head coach Chris Kleiman.  I trust the Wildcats to respond in a big way similar to when they beat Oklahoma State 48-0 at home two years ago as 2.5-point favorites.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky +13

Note: It was announced that BC starting QB Castellanos would miss this game since I posted this pick.  The line is currently down to +8 at most places.  It's still a 25* at +7.5 or better, and a 20* at anything worse.

Boston College is overvalued for playing well against two teams that are way overrated in my opinion.  I was on the Eagles when they upset Florida State 28-13 as 16.5-point dogs and I was on them again when they took Missouri to the wire in a 27-21 defeat as 14.5-point dogs.

Florida State is lucky to not be 0-4 right now as they got a win over Cal that they didn't deserve last week.  Missouri needed OT to beat Vanderbilt at home last week.  So those two performances don't look nearly as good now.

I successfully faded the Eagles last week as they failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 23-19 home win over Michigan State.  They had no business winning that game as they were outgained 368 to 292 by the Spartans, but they were +3 in turnovers which was the difference.

This is the ultimate flat spot for Boston College now.  They have been through the gauntlet going to the wire with Missouri and Michigan State the last two weeks, which were also two very physical games.  I question how much they have left in the tank for Western Kentucky this week.  

It's also a sandwich spot with an ACC opponent in Virginia on deck next week.  And it's fair to question how much intensity the Eagles will be playing with after playing their famous 'Red Bandana' game last week against Sparty.  They get up for that game every year for obvious reasons, and now they will come back down from it in this obvious flat spot.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to Alabama.  The Hilltoppers have been playing better the last two weeks since switching to Caden Veltkamp at quarterback.  He led them to their big comeback bowl win last year while throwing 5 TD passes.  He should have started from the jump, and he is proving it completing 73.9% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio since taking over as starter two games ago.

The 31-0 win over Eastern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites and the 49-21 win at Middle Tennessee as 7-point favorites weren't that impressive despite the fact that they covered by such large margins.  It was the 26-21 win as 2.5-point dogs to Toledo last week that was impressive.  Toledo was coming off a 41-17 win at SEC foe Mississippi State, and many expected the Rockets to win the MAC this season.  

They are more than capable of hanging with a Boston College team that won't be putting their best foot forward this week.  They proven they could stop the run holding Toledo to 125 rushing yards on 42 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.  And stopping the run against BC will be key as the Eagles are more of a one-dimensional running team.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* VA Tech/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +19.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Virginia Tech and 'sell high' on Miami.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS this season, while Miami is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.  This line would have been less than 7 if it were played in Week 1, and because of results thus far it has been adjusted up way too much to 19.5 points here Friday night.

Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season about possibly being a sleeper to win the ACC after how strong them finished last season, plus the fact that they brought back 21 starters from that team.  They were upset 34-27 as 13-point favorites by Vanderbilt in the opener.  Vanderbilt went on to nearly upset Missouri, losing in OT on the road last week, so that loss doesn't look at bad now.

Last week, Virginia Tech lost 26-23 to Rutgers as 3-point home favorites.  Rutgers was coming off a bye week and had a big rest advantage.  Also, Rutgers looks like one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a 3-0 start and two other blowout victories.

Miami is getting a lot of credit for its 4-0 start this season against a very soft schedule.  The win over Florida in the opener doesn't look nearly as good now after Texas A&M crushed Florida as well.  They blew out Ball State and Florida A&M, and last week they were trailing 15-14 near halftime to USF before outscoring them 36-0 the rest of the way.  They were aided by an injury to USF QB Brown in the 2H, who means everything to their team.  

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the hype this week as this is the type of game Miami has had a letdown at home in the past under Mario Cristobal.  The Hurricanes lost outright as 20-point home favorites to Georgia Tech last year and needed OT to beat Virginia as 18-point favorites.  I think they'll get a much bigger fight than they bargained for in this one.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less, and VA Tech has only lost one if its last eight meetings with Miami by more than 18 points.  Bet Virginia Tech Friday.

20* Cowboys/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off Thursday night in this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.  Both offenses should have plenty of success in this one to get up and OVER 44 combined points, which is a very key number for NFL totals and I'm glad we got this one early.

The OVER is 3-0 in Dallas' three games this season.  They played in a 33-17 shootout with the Browns for 50 combined points in Week 1, a 44-19 shootout with the Saints for 63 combined points in Week 2, and a 28-25 shootout with the Ravens for 53 combined points in Week 3.  It should be more of the same here.

Those are three good defenses they faced and the Cowboys managed to average 25.7 points per game against them.  But they have allowed 372.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play and 29.7 points per game.  They are last in the NFL against the run allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game.

The Giants have an improved offense this season with a healthy Daniel Jones and a new favorite target in Malik Nabers, who has 23 receptions for 271 yards and 3 TD.  Wandale Robinson has been a nice compliment with 15 receptions for 123 yards and a score.  And Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards and 2 TD while averaging 4.7 per carry.  The Giants should be able to get what they want on the ground, which will open up their passing game.

The Giants allowed 28 points in three quarters to the Vikings in Week 1.  In Week 2, they didn't force a single punt against the Commanders and let them score on all seven of their drives.  Last week they were much better against the Browns as their defensive line took advantage of a banged up Browns offensive line that was missing several starters.  They won't have that luxury this week.

Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries.  The Giants will be without two starting CB's in Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson, and they already had one of the worst secondary's in the NFL.  That's bad news for them up against the Cowboys, who rank 1st in passing at 269.7 yards per game.  The Cowboys are more of a one-dimensional offense without being able to run the football, and they will be trying to move it through the air.

Dak Prescott has owned the Giants scoring 35 or more points in six of the last 10 meetings.  They have averaged 33.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings.  They will do the heavy lifting for us, but the Giants should be able to keep up that is going to be without DT Jordan Phillips, S Marquese Bell and CB Caelen Carson.  They were already without CB DaRon Bland who has been on IR since the opener.  These are two horrid secondary's right now that will get exposed.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Army/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 45.5

For starters, games involving a service academy where both teams are on a short week are 14-3 OVER since 2018.  This trend makes sense because the opponent has less time to prepare for their triple-option and they aren't ready for it.  These games always tend to be more shootouts compared to these low totals for these service academy games.

Army is a wagon on offense this season behind one of the best triple-option QB's in program history in Bryson Dailey, who has rushed for 340 yards and 5 TD while throwing for 186 yards and 3 TD while averaging 9 yards per attempt.  He leads an Army offense that ranks 2nd in the country at 356 rushing yards per game.

That makes this a great matchup for this Army offense up against this Temple defense that allows 221.8 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, ranking 124th in the country against the run.  Temple lost 38-11 to Navy three weeks ago and allowed 297 rushing yards to the Midshipmen.

But the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is the improvement of the Temple offense once they switched QB's to Evan Simon two games ago.  Simon is completing 65.4% of his passes with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.  He threw 5 touchdown passes in a 45-29 win over Utah State last week.  Simon and this Temple offense should be able to answer when Army scores almost every possession.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Commanders/Bengals ABC No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  That was evident in Week 1 when they made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana in a 37-20 road loss.  Mayfield completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and 4 TD in the win.

Last week, the Commanders made Daniel Jones look like a respectable QB.  The Giants scored three touchdowns on their defense, but unfortunately their kicker got hurt pregame and they failed on an XP followed by two missed 2-point conversions.  They were also forced to go for it on 4th down without a kicker.  They lost 21-18 to the Commanders.

Washington won that game despite not scoring an offensive TD.  In fact, the Commanders kicked 7 field goals, never had to punt and went 0-for-6 in the red zone.  Jayden Daniels moved the Commanders up and down the field and looks like the best rookie QB in this draft thus far.  He is completing 75.5% of his passes while also rushing for 132 yards and 2 TD through two games.

The Bengals got their offense going last week in a 26-25 loss to the Chiefs.  Now another reinforcement is on the way as WR Tee Higgins will make his season debut Monday night.  This is one of the best offenses in the NFL when Burrow, Chase and Higgins are on the field at the same time, and they should have their way with a Washington defense that will likely prove to be the worst in the NFL this season.

The Commanders are allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Bengals are also down defensively this season especially with the loss of DT DJ Reader, who is one of the best run stuffers in the league.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Jaguars/Bills ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +6

We'll 'buy low' on the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars and 'sell high' on the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.  NFL teams that are 0-2 facing a team that is not 0-2 in Week 3 have gone 53-32-2 ATS over their last 87 tries.  This trend just goes to show that there is serious value backing this 0-2 teams.

The Jaguars are one of my favorite 0-2 teams to back this week.  They could easily be 2-0.  Travis Etienne fumbled going in for a TD that would have given them a 24-7 lead on the Dolphins in Week 1 and put that game away.  Instead, the Dolphins scored on an 80-yard bomb to Tyreke Hill on the next play for a 14-point swing.  The Dolphins went on to win 20-17 on a last-second FG.

Last week, the Jaguars lost 18-13 at home to the Browns.  They had the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead but took a safety after a great punt to the 1-yard line.  They actually outgained the Browns 323 to 297 for the game and probably should have won that game as well.  They are the kings of one-possession games, so getting 6 points here is a great value.

The Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 in Week 1 and crushed the Dolphins 31-10 in Week 2.  But that win over the Dolphins was pretty misleading considering Miami actually outgained them 351 to 247.  The Dolphins just gave it away with 3 interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, who was eventually knocked out with a concussion.

Buffalo injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.  They are going to be without LB Terrell Bernard and CB Taron Johnson, which are two of their best defenders.  They were already without LB Matt Milano.  The Jaguars should find plenty of success against a Bills defense that on paper looks as bad as they have had in the Sean McDermott era.  And I like this improved Jacksonville defense that actually one of the best pass rushes in the NFL this season.  This game is likely decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

15* Ravens/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 47

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall dating back to last season with 48 or more combined points in all four.  They went for 50 combined points against the Browns on the road in Week 1 and 63 combined points against the Saints in Week 2 at home.

The Baltimore Ravens also look like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  Their offense is loaded once again and players are used to Jeff Monken's systems in Year 2.  But their defense has taken a big step back since losing cooardinator Mike McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks.  Many believe he is the best defensive mind in the game.

The OVER is 2-0 in Ravens two games this season combining for 47 points with the Chiefs only after they had a TD called back on the final play of the game with Isaiah Likely's foot on the line.  They racked up 452 total yards on a very good Kansas City defense.  They combined for 49 points with the Raiders last week and had 383 total yards in that defeat.

It will be perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium and the Cowboys are even more of an OVER team at home.  I think both offenses have their way against these two suspect defenses, and this total of 47 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Lions/Cardinals OVER 50.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and one of the worst defenses.  We've seen that play out the first two weeks with a 34-28 loss to the Bills and a 41-10 win over the Rams that both flew over the total.

The Detroit Lions have a much better offense than they have shown thus far.  They keep shooting themselves in the foot, and that was definitely the case last week when they managed just 16 points against the Bucs despite 463 total yards.  They went 1-of-7 in the red zone, and that's not going to happen again.  This Detroit offense will get right this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Arizona.

Detroit ranks 2nd in total offense while Arizona ranks 7th currently.  Both teams have had a ton of success on the ground and that will be the case again this week to open up the passing game.  Arizona is rushing for 177.5 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Detroit is rushing for 151 yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.