15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in. 

This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win.  They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis.  It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves. 

The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs.  They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards.  It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it. 

Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season.  They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs.  Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done. 

This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans.  They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South.  Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week.  In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week.  I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week. 

Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss.  Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6 

This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday.  That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.  The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week.  And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.

Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers.  And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full.  The betting public just continues to hammer this team.  I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.

The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year.  And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now.  Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.

Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday.  That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs.  Yet nobody wants to believe in them.  I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.

The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league.  The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games.  Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on.  The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5 

It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago.  The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.  

 It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now.  Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets.  They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable. 

The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week.  They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards. 

The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents.  The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in.  And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in. 

The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained.  They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans.  They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh.  They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss.  And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left.  They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win. 

The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars.  Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints.  Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts. 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts.  They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back.  The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back.  They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall. 

The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion.  They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home.  The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall. 

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents.  The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5 

LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season.  The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish.  Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M.  They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season.  It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now.  It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close.  They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.

Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land.  But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU.  The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week.  And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers.  A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading.  When they need stops, they can get them.

Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension.  He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year.  Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury.  He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores.  Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult.  Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  One bad hit and he could be out of this game.

Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU.  Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind.  And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up.  Take LSU Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5 

Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season.  They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season.  And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.

The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game.  Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.

The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game.  They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites.  And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.

QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week.  Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place.  I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.

Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall.  The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season.  They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed.  Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.  That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.  Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.

The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC.  They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense.  The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.

The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56 

Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons.  They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year. 

It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses.  That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings.  They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight. 

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette.  The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them.  The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one. 

Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play.  Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play.  Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

The biggest reason I’m on the UNDER tonight is due to the weather.  Forecasts are calling for 20-plus MPH winds with around a 75% chance of precipitation during the game in Santa Clara.  The weather conditions are going to make it difficult for both teams to throw the ball.  This is going to be a run and punt and play field position type of game. 

Both Utah and Oregon have the two best defenses in the Pac-12.  The Utes are giving up just 11.2 points and 241.6 yards per game on the season.  The Ducks are giving up just 15.7 points and 331.3 yards per game on the year.  Both teams have been dominant against the run with the Utes allowing 56 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry, and the Ducks allowing 106 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry. 

The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Utes last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utes last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Ducks last nine games on grass.  It’s a poor playing surface at Levi’s Stadium, especially when it gets wet.  The weather will favor a defensive battle, and the books can’t set this number low enough.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Cowboys/Bears FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5 

The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears are both 6-6 this season.  However, the Cowboys are favored for good reason here because they are much better than a 6-6 team, while the Bears are much worse than a 6-6 team.  I’ll lay the short number with the Cowboys here because of it. 

Dallas is outgaining its opponents by 111.1 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one of the best marks in the entire NFL.  The Cowboys have the top-ranked offense in the NFL at 432.8 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per play (6.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate (49%). 

Chicago is getting outgained by 38 yards per game.  The Bears rank 30th in yard per play (4.6), 29th in 3rd down conversion rate (31%) and 29th in total offense at 281.8 yards per game.  Both teams are pretty equal on defense as the Bears are 7th in total defense at 319.7 yards per game and the Cowboys are 8th at 321.6 yards per game. 

Of back-to-back losses where they felt like they should have won against the Patriots and Bills, the Cowboys will be highly motivated for a win here Thursday.  And the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.  They needed a late comeback to beat the Lions and their 3rd-string quarterback last week. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after having lost three of its last four games overall the past three seasons.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Cowboys are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +3 

The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most fraudulent 9-2 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 29 points on the season, which is the sign of a team that would be closer to 6-5 than 9-2.  At least nine teams in the NFL have outscored their opponents by more than 29 points on the season. 

One of those teams is the Minnesota Vikings, who have outscored their opponents by a total of 84 points and are every bit as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Now the Seahawks’ luck will run out against one of the best teams in the NFL here in the Vikings.  I expect Minnesota to win this game outright. 

The Vikings have won six of their last seven games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Six of their eight wins this season have come by double-digits.  They once again have an elite defense that is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season. 

Kirk Cousins is having one of the best seasons of his career.  He is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with a 21-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 yards per attempt.  A big reason he has been so good is because the Vikings finally have a rushing attack with Dalvin Cook, who has 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 per carry. 

One of the biggest reasons I see the Seahawks as frauds is because they have an awful defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 370.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They also give up 23.9 points per game.  Now they will be without their best pass rusher in Jadeveon Clowney this week, making their job a whole lot tougher. 

The Vikings have two full weeks to prepare for the Seahawks coming off their bye week.  They want revenge on the Seahawks after losing five straight to them, including a one-point loss in the playoffs a few years back in Seattle after they missed a chip shot field goal for the win.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.4 points per game at home this season.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -10 

The Kansas City Chiefs own the Oakland Raiders and the AFC West in general.  The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Raiders with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  It will be more of the same today with the Chiefs today as they win by double-digits over the Raiders with first place in the AFC West on the line. 

The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant as they were last year.  But it’s also true that they haven’t been healthy all season.  Patrick Mahomes has missed some time, and several of his weapons have missed games.  But now the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been all season.  And they’re going to be a scary team moving forward.  Their season-long stats aren’t as good as they are going to be from here on out. 

Andy Reid is one of the best head coaches of all-time off a bye.  He is 22-4 SU & 17-9 ATS off a bye and will obviously have his team ready to go with what’s at stake today.  He doesn’t need any motivational speeches with first place in the AFC West at stake. 

The Raiders are coming off a 3-34 road loss to the New York Jets last week.  It was their worst game of the season, and I’m definitely concerned about this team moving forward.  They only managed 208 total yards against a bad Jets defense.  Oakland’s leaky defense gave up 401 total yards to a bad Jets offense too.  This had been a poor Oakland defense all season giving up 25.8 points and 370.8 yards per game, including 30.3 points and 372.8 yards per game on the road. 

Oakland is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Raiders are 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Kansas City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. AFC West opponents.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 

The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks.  They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. 

Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore.  They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game.  Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season.  Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. 

The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night.  They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards.  The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense.  I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week.  Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. 

I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach.  You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one.  And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. 

Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games.  And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total.  After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. 

Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Jets -3 

Sam Darnold started to talk about the playoffs after the Jets beat the Giants 34-27 three weeks ago.  Everyone laughed at him, and they’re still laughing because it’s probably not possible.  But the fact of the matter is he has delivered since making that statement.  And the Jets have the belief they can make the playoffs in that locker room, which is all that really matters. 

Darnold went on to lead the Jets to a 34-17 win at Washington and a 34-3 home win over Oakland last week.  I realize the competition hasn’t been great, but the Jets have scored 34 points on three straight NFL defenses.  And now they face the worst team in the NFL in the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals.  I don’t see anything changing here. 

The Bengals give up 26.5 points and are dead last in total defense at 417.2 yards per game allowed.  Their offense ranks 31st in scoring at 14.3 points per game and they’ve been held to 17 points or fewer in six straight games coming in.  They are going back to Andy Dalton this week at quarterback, but it won’t matter. 

Dalton doesn’t have any weapons outside with AJ Green and John Ross sidelined.  And the Bengals' only hope is to run the football with Joe Mixon.  That certainly won’t be easy this week.  The Jets are 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.1 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.  Only one player has rushed for 100 yards against the Jets, and that was Zeke Elliott in Week 6, a game the Jets won. 

The Bengals are coming off a tough 10-16 loss to division rival Pittsburgh.  And they have another division rival in Cleveland on deck.  I don’t see them showing up at all this week as it will be hard for them to get motivated to face the Jets.  And even if they do, they aren’t good enough to hang with this hot Jets team playing their best football of the season. 

The Bengals have 13 straight losses since the end of last year.  They’ve also lost 18 of 19 overall, the worst stretch in franchise history.  Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cincinnati) - a cold team having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in home games off a division loss over the last three seasons.  Take the Jets Sunday. 

15* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco +6 

The Baltimore Ravens couldn’t possibly be more overvalued than they are right now off five straight blowout wins and covers.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points to what I believe is neck-and-neck with Baltimore as the best team in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.  It’s too much, and there’s a great chance this game is decided by one score either way. 

The Ravens got two non-offensive touchdowns against Seattle to start this streak.  Then they had a bye and caught New England in a good spot.  Then they faced an awful Cincinnati team before beating up on a bad Houston defense.  And last week they beat up on an overrated Rams team.  They will meet their match this week. 

The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.  They rank 1st in total defense in giving up just 248.0 yards per game while also allowing just 14.8 points per game.  Nothing has come easy against this San Francisco defense, which is loaded with first-round draft picks along the front seven and has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, giving up just 136.9 passing yards per game. 

The 49ers have been great offensively when George Kittle and Emanuel Sanders have been healthy.  They have scored 36 and 37 points in back-to-back wins over Arizona and Green Bay.  And Kittle just returned against the Packers last week and made a huge difference in their 37-8 win.  The 49ers held Aaron Rodgers and company to just 198 total yards on 65 plays, an average of 3.05 yards per play.  And it’s worth noting the Ravens lost starting center Matt Skura to a season-ending knee injury against the Rams last week.  Skura is the QB of the offensive line and makes all the calls. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team average 27 or more points pre game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Browns/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1 

The Cleveland Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now their schedule has lightened up and the Browns have won and covered three in a row.  They will prove that they are better than the Steelers finally this season by sweeping the season series. 

The Browns won 21-7 two weeks ago as 3-point home favorites.  They dominated and forced four turnovers in the win.  Obviously, the Steelers want revenge, but they don’t have the personnel to get it.  The Browns are far and away the better team in this matchup in 2019. 

The Steelers have a dreadful offense that has scored 17, 7 and 16 points the last three weeks.  They are going to Devlin Hodges over Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but it’s not an upgrade.  Hodges’ 24-17 win at the Chargers was extremely misleading.  He only averaged 6.6 per attempt and totaled 132 passing yards.  The Chargers gave that game away with turnovers and outgained the Steelers by 92 yards.  And Hodgers is being looked at as the savior last week in leading the 16-10 win over the Bengals after replacing Rudolph.  But it’s the 0-11 Bengals, who have lost 18 of their last 19 overall. 

The Browns have outgained four straight opponents and are a very good team if they don’t beat themselves.  They aren’t beating themselves as they have cleaned up the turnovers and penalties.  And we saw the same thing last year with the Browns finishing the season strong after a slow start.  They have one of the most talented offenses in the NFL, and their defense is good enough to shut down an awful Pitt offense again. 

A big reason this Pittsburgh offense has struggled and why they’re playing musical chairs at quarterback is because they don’t have their full plethora of weapons.  Both JuJu Smith-Shuster and James Conner aren’t expected to play this week.  Plus, center Maurkice Pouncey is serving the second of his two-game suspension following the Myles Garrett/Mason Rudolph incident.  Not having the QB of their offensive line is a big loss.  And the books almost never factor in the loss of a center to injury, even thought it’s one of the most important positions in the NFL. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - revenging a loss vs. opponent of 14 points or more, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Browns Sunday. 

20* Army/Hawaii CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Army +3 

Hawaii just clinched the MWC’s West Division with a 14-11 home win over San Diego State last week.  The Rainbow Warriors have nothing to play for, and now they’d rather focus their attention on the MWC Championship Game against Boise State next week.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they lay down today instead of expending the energy it takes to try and shut down a triple-option team like Army. 

Hawaii hasn’t had a bye since the beginning of October.  They will be playing for an 8th straight week here.  That’s all the more reason for them to not expend energy here, plus even if they wanted to they can’t have much left in the tank.  Meanwhile, Army is coming off a bye week and has another bye on deck before facing Navy.  They will be ‘all in’ here because they sit at 5-6 and need to win their final two games to make a bowl. 

Army is clearly fresh off the bye, but also because it won a couple laughers going into the bye.  The Black Knights won 63-7 over UMass and 47-6 over VMI in their two games preceding the bye.  And this is a great matchup for them as they rush for 303 yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Hawaii allows 188 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry on the season.  It’s strength vs. weakness here, so the situation and the matchup favor the Black Knights. 

Army is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the past three seasons.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Hawaii.  The Black Knights are 7-1 ATS int heir last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Army Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +41 

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions.  They just lost a grueling 17-28 game at Ohio State with the Big Ten East title on the line.  After losing that game, the Nittany Lions could care less about beating Rutgers by any kind of margin this week.  And unless they are giving 100%, they aren’t going to cover this massive 41-point spread. 

Not to mention, Penn State QB Sean Clifford was knocked out of the Ohio State game with a leg injury and is questionable to play Saturday.  Look for the Nittany Lions to pull their starters in the second half of this game and to just try and get out of here with a win rather than looking to run up the score. 

Rutgers will be looking at this game like its Super Bowl.  And the Scarlet Knights have been more competitive here down the stretch.  They beat Liberty outright as 7.5-point dogs, they covered as 51.5-point dogs in a 21-56 loss to Ohio State, and they lost 27-0 to Michigan State last week.  They haven’t quit, and they will be trying to give Penn State all they can handle Saturday. 

Rutgers hasn’t lost by more than 39 to Penn State since joining the Big Ten in 2014.  They only lost 20-7 last year as 28.5-point dogs.  They covered as 31-point dogs in 2017 in a 35-6 loss.  They lost 39-0 in 2016 and 28-3 in 2015.  They covered as 3.5-point dogs in a 13-10 loss in 2014.  Don’t expect the Scarlet Knights to lose by 41-plus points for the first time against Penn State this week. 

Penn State has actually been outgained in six of its 11 games this season, so it is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  James Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a loss as the coach of Penn State.  He hasn’t been good at getting his team to respond following a defeat.  And he certainly has his hands full getting his players to show up this week after losing to Ohio State last week.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +14.5 

The New Mexico State Aggies lost their first nine games of the season against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They schedule finally eased up, and they were able to pick up back-to-back wins over Incarnate Word 41-28 as 8-point favorites and UTEP 44-35 as 7-point favorites.  They have shown some fight here down the stretch, and they’ll certainly show up here against Liberty. 

This is quickly becoming a rivalry because these teams have played twice a year each of the last two years since they both don’t have a conference as Independents.  Each of the three meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 8 points or less.  New Mexico State wants revenge from a 13-20 home loss to Liberty in a game they deserved to win, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.  They outgained Liberty 396 to 337 in that contest. 

Liberty has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played the 127th schedule compared to the 96th schedule for New Mexico State.  And after finally facing some decent teams in BYU and Virginia, losing by 28 to Virginia last week, I just can’t see Liberty being all that motivated this week to beat NMSU for a second time.  They are already bowl eligible at 6-5 this season. 

Plays on road teams (New Mexico State) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-25 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are simply catching too many points here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday. 

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +9.5 

The Michigan Wolverines turned their season around in the second half against Penn State, coming back from a 21-0 deficit and coming a dropped pass away from sending that game to overtime.  They really deserved to win that game as they outgunned the Nittany Lions by 124 yards.  In fact, the Wolverines have outgained 10 of their 11 opponents this season.  I think they’re every bit as good as Ohio State right now, and it will show on the field Saturday. 

The Wolverines came back the next week after the Penn State loss and crushed a very good Notre Dame team 45-14 at home.  They outgained the Fighting Irish by 257 yards in the win, so there was nothing fluky about it.  They went on to beat Maryland 38-7 and Michigan State 44-10.  And last week, I actually faded Michigan and took Indiana thinking it was a sandwich spot.  It wasn’t, and the Wolverines remained focused and handled their business in a 39-14 win as 10-point favorites. 

Ohio State has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch after a great start to the season against a soft schedule.  The Buckeyes failed to cover as 52-point favorites in a 56-21 win at Rutgers.  And last week they found themselves fighting Penn State tooth and nail at home, pulling out the eventual 28-17l win as 20-point favorites. 

Ohio State QB Justin Fields suffered an ankle injury in that Penn State game that hampered him and will continue to slow him this week.  That’s a huge advantage for this Michigan defense as he won’t be the dual-threat he usually would be.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping Ohio State as Fields is suspect as a passer. 

The Wolverines have the clear answer for Ohio State’s rushing attack.  Michigan allows just 106 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  They are holding opponents to 68 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry less than their season averages.  They have one of the best run defenses in the country.  And while Michigan is almost fully healthy with only two players on the injury report, Ohio State has a plethora of injuries with 13 players on the injury report and a ton with a questionable tag. 

Michigan QB Shea Patterson has taken his game to the next level this season and is capable out out dueling Fields in this one.  He is completing 59.5% of his passes for 2,523 yards with a 21-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  And Patterson has been really good during the current four-game winning streak with all four wins by 25 points or more and the offense averaging 41.5 points per game  He has a 12-to-1 ratio in his last four games. 

Michigan wants this game like blood.  The Wolverines have lost seven straight in this series to Ohio State.  Jim Harbaugh was brought in here to beat Ohio State, and it’s time in Year 4.  I think this is the perfect spot to do so, and he finally has the team to get it done.  The game doesn’t mean as much for the Buckeyes, who clinched the Big Ten East division last year.  They could lose this game and still win the Big Ten title next week against Wisconsin or Minnesota and make the four-team playoff.  A loss won’t keep them out.  This is Michigan’s Super Bowl. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan) - in a game involving two dominant teams who are outgaining their opponents by 1.2 or more yards per play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two straight games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent rushing defensive that allow 2.75 or fewer yards per carry in all games as a head coach.  Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Michigan.  The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -7.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are still playing to try and win C-USA’s East Division.  They need a win and a Florida Atlantic loss to Southern Miss this week to get in.  They have the tiebreaker over both FAU and Western Kentucky.  And it’s Senior Day, so they’ll be max motivated. 

The same cannot be said for Florida International.  They just clinched their 6th win and bowl eligibility last week.  They did so by beating big brother Miami outright as a 21-point underdog.  I think they will be partying all week and won’t care at all about this game.  It’s a massive letdown spot for the Golden Panthers. 

FIU is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 23 points per game.  They lost by 28 at Tulane, by 12 at LA Tech, by 33 at Middle Tennessee and by 30 at Florida Atlantic.  Marshall is 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to 10-2 Cincinnati. 

The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Marshall Saturday. 

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska +6 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are the single-most underrated 5-6 or worse team in the country.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after they burned through their money betting on them; the Huskers are just 2-9 ATS this season.  And I think we are ‘buying low’ on the Huskers, who were 7-point favorites over the Hawkeyes in this game entering the season.  Now they are 6-point underdogs on game day. 

Nebraska has actually seven of its last 10 opponents despite going 4-6 SU.  The only exceptions were a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  And Adrian Martinez hasn’t been healthy all season, but he is back to 100% now and playing well.  I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from Nebraska the last two weeks. 

Indeed, the Huskers outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards but lost despite gaining 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense.  Then they went into Maryland and won 54-7 last week and outgained them by 325 yards.  The Huskers are getting their running game going, rushing for 273 yards on Wisconsin and 305 yards on Maryland. 

The fact that Nebraska has been running the football well of late and on the season is important because they will need to run on Iowa because the weather report is calling for some rain.  Nebraska is rushing for 207 yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season.  Iowa has the worst rushing attack it has had in years.  The Hawkeyes only average 132 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  And QB Nathan Stanley has taken a step back this year to really hurt his draft stock. 

Iowa just played Wisconsin a few weeks ago and only lost 22-24.  However, they had a huge comeback in the 4th quarter that made that game look closer than the final score.  The Hawkeyes were outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  Iowa went on to get lucky to beat Minnesota 23-19 the next week despite getting outgained by 141 yards by the Gophers.  And last week the Hawkeyes only outgained a bad Illinois team by 51 yards in a 19-10 home win as 15-point favorites. 

So, as you can see, Nebraska is the better team when you compare stats against common opponents.  Nebraska outgained Wisconsin while Iowa was outgained by 178 yards by the Badgers.  And Nebraska outgained Illinois by 391 yards while Iowa only outgained Illinois by 51 yards.  Iowa has a putrid offense that is averaging just 19.4 points per game in Big Ten play.  They can’t be trusted to lay this number on the road. 

While Iowa will be motivated for this rivalry game, Nebraska will clearly be the more motivated team.  Scott Frost wants to get his team to a bowl game in Year 2 and finish the season strong.  The Huskers also want revenge from a 28-31 road loss at Iowa as 8.5-point dogs.  Iowa won on a last-second field goal.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

Nebraska is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Huskers desperately want to end a four-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes in this series, and I think they get the job done at home this week.  Take Nebraska Friday. 

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -10 

The Central Michigan Chippewas can clinch the MAC West title with a win Friday.  Western Michigan lost to Northern Illinois on Tuesday to allow the Chippewas to have this opportunity, and I expect them to take full advantage with a blowout win over Toledo Friday. 

Central Michigan has been underrated all season, and that’s evident with their 8-3 ATS record this year.  They have been the most dominant team in the MAC.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in MAC play this season, outgaining opponents by 150 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  They are averaging 509.3 yards per game in MAC play and giving up 359.4 yards per game. 

Not to mention, the Chippewas have two full weeks to get ready for Toledo after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Toledo played last week against Buffalo, and while they will have a few extra days of rest than normal they are still at a disadvantage. 

While I love the motivation for Central Michigan, I hate the motivational spot for Toledo.  The Rockets have already clinched a bowl with a 6-5 record this season.  And after losing at home to NIU 28-31, their hopes of winning the MAC West were crushed.  They went on to lose 30-49 at Buffalo last week in a game that wasn’t even as close as that final score showed.  Now it will be more of the same against Central Michigan. 

Toledo has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They are giving up 468.7 yards per game this season, including 464.9 yards per game in MAC play.  The Rockets have been dreadful on the road, going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS while getting outscored by 15.6 points per game and outgained by 125 yards per game.  They are giving up a whopping 524.8 yards per game on the road this season. 

Conversely, Central Michigan is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 23.2 points per game and outgaining them by 251 yards per game.  They are averaging 550 yards per game of offense at home and only giving up 298.6 yards per game.  They beat Northern Illinois 48-10 in their last home game, the same NIU team that beat Toledo on the road and Western Michigan on the road each for he last two weeks. 

And perhaps the most important part about this handicap is that Toledo could be without its top two quarterbacks.  Mitchell Guadagni has missed the past five games and is unlikely to return.  And backup Eli Peters was knocked out of the Buffalo game last week and is questionable to play.  The good news is that even if one of them plays, I still love Central Michigan, and if they don’t play they have no chance of even being competitive. 

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after going over the total in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Central Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after scoring 42 points or more last game.  The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Chippewas.  Bet Central Michigan Friday. 

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -28 

The Buffalo Bulls are the far superior team in this matchup with Bowling Green.  So while I rarely lay this big of a number in any sport, I’m going to lay the number with the Bulls Friday.  They should win by more than four touchdowns against a Bowling Green team that looks like they’ve quit. 

Buffalo sits at 6-5 this season and playing some tremendous football down the stretch.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Akron 21-0 as 18-point road favorites, beat Central Michigan 43-20 as 2.5-point home favorites, won at Eastern Michigan 43-14 as 1.5-point favorites, and crushed Toledo 49-30 at home as 10-point favorites.  Their lone loss came at Kent State after they blew a 27-6 lead in the 4th quarter in fluky fashion, giving up 24 points in the final eight minutes. 

Bowling Green lost at Miami Ohio 3-44 two weeks ago and came back to lose 24-66 at home to Ohio last week.  The Falcons sit at 3-8 on the season and have clearly quit.  In fact, seven of those eight losses came by 28 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out by big margins.  And their three wins have come against Morgan State, Akron and Toledo. 

The key with Bowling Green is that they have been respectable at home, but atrocious on the road.  The Falcons are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by a whopping 45.2 points per game.  They are scoring just 6.6 points per game on 253.8 yards per game on the highway, and allowing 51.8 points per game and 568.6 yards per game. 

Buffalo beat Bowling Green 44-14 on the road last season as 16-point favorites.  They gained 483 yards and only allowed 205 yards, outgaining the Falcons by 278 yards.  Expect more of the same at Buffalo this time around as the Bulls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to Ohio by a single point. 

The Falcons are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  Bowling Green is 1-9 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Buffalo Friday. 

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7 

The Atlanta Falcons are being left for dead now after losing 22-35 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  It’s the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on them and trust that they’ll get back to playing the same kind of football they were the two weeks before losing to the Bucs. 

We saw the Falcons come out of their bye week and crush the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road underdogs.  Then we saw them back it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs to prove it was no fluke.  I think off those two huge upset road wins, the Falcons simply fell flat last week in the role of the favorite against a Bucs team that had lost five of their previous six coming in. 

Now, back at home on Thanksgiving Day and up against their biggest rivals, the Falcons will be giving a max effort tonight.  And when they are dialed in and focused, they are capable of beating anyone in the NFL as we’ve seen.  Look for them to give the Saints a run for their money tonight. 

The Saints are overvalued due to their 9-2 record this season.  They have simply been the kings of winning close games as the Saints are 6-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  And this game is likely to decided by a touchdown or less as well, meaning that we are getting great value on the Falcons here as 7-point home dogs. 

Atlanta really missed Devonta Freeman at running back last week against the Bucs.  They couldn’t get anything going on the ground without him, and he’s also a huge threat in the passing game.  The Falcons were able to rush for 143 yards the last time they faced the Saints and that took a lot of pressure off Matt Ryan.  Look for them to get back to running the ball this week after attempting just 19 rushes last week compared to 34 in that win over the Saints. 

New Orleans was lucky to escape with a 34-31 win over the Panthers last week.  The Panthers couldn’t punch in first and goal in the final minutes, and then missed a chip shot field goal.  The Saints went down and kicked a game-winner as time expired.  They only outgained the Panthers by 67 yards.  And in their previous two games, they were outgained by 7 yards by the Falcons and by 6 yards by the Bucs. 

Series history of games played at Atlanta shows that there’s a ton of value on the Falcons +7.  Indeed, the Saints haven’t won by more than 6 points over the Falcons in Atlanta since 2007.  That’s 11 meetings and zero wins for the Saints by more than 6 points.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7-point spread. 

Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  And it’s a huge advantage for the Falcons to be staying at home after playing a home game last week so there’s no travel for them on this short week.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

20* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +2.5 

The Ole Miss Rebels somehow were able to get a bye week before playing their biggest game of the season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had to play Saturday against Abilene Christian and now will be on a short week.  That edge in rest and preparation is a huge advantage for the Rebels this week. 

Ole Miss has been grossly undervalued in the entire second half of the season.  The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have exceeded expectations despite playing a brutal schedule.  And ever since dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee took over, this Ole Miss offense has flourished.  Plumlee has rushed for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 7.3 per carry against mostly very good defenses.   

The Rebels have had their best offensive performance last time out against a very good LSU defense.  The managed 614 total yards and 37 points against LSU.  They had 606 total yards against New Mexico State the game before and covered as 28-point favorites in a 41-3 win.  They only lost 14-20 at Auburn as 17-point dogs.  They deserved to beat Texas A&M but lost 17-24 at home despite outgaining them by 65 yards.  They gave Missouri a battle in a 27-38 road loss.  They crushed Vanderbilt 31-6 as 7-point home favorites.  And they were only outgained by 98 yards at Alabama and put up 31 points and 476 total yards on their defense.

This is going to be Ole Miss’ Super Bowl.  They won’t be going to a bowl game at 4-7 this season.  But they have a chance to knock Mississippi State (5-6) out of a bowl game.  The Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season as they are just 4-7 ATS with their only covers coming in wins over Southern Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas and Abilene Christian.  They really haven’t beaten anyone good. 

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Ole Miss is 1-4 SU & 4-1 ATS against them while only getting outscored by 9.6 points per game and outgained by 0.8 yards per play.  Mississippi State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against those same five opponents, getting outscored by 15.2 points per game and outgained by 1.3 yards per play.  These common opponent stats show Ole Miss is the better team, and we’re getting them as an underdog in a favorable rest spot off the bye. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Mississippi State) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent that gained 5.5 or more yards per attempt last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.  Mississippi State is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Take Ole Miss Thursday. 

15* Bears/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +4.5 

I realize the Detroit Lions could be down to third-string quarterback David Blough if Jeff Driskel is unable to go.  And while I liked Blough at Purdue and believe he looked pretty solid in the preseason, this is more of a play against Chicago than a play on Detroit than anything. 

This line has moved from Detroit -1.5 all the way to Chicago -4.5, which is a 6-point adjustment.  I’d understand that adjustment if it was from Stafford to Driskel, but not from Driskel to possibly Blough.  This is an overcorrection, and the value is clearly on the Lions at home.  The books are clearly going to need the Lions, and I like being on the books’ side in this situation. 

The fact of the matter is the Bears still have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They are scoring 17.1 points per game and averaging 269.3 yards per game on the season.  They have scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games coming in.  You just can’t trust the Bears to lay this many points with their dreadful offense. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Lions, who were upset by the Redskins last week as 4-point road favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as the Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards but gave the game away with four turnovers.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with the Lions after they just lost to the dreadful Redskins, but nine times out of 10 with their stats they would have won that game. 

In fact, the Lions have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, including in all three of their road games against the Raiders, Bears and Redskins.  They outgained the Giants at home and beat them, and took the Cowboys to the wire in a 27-35 loss in the only game they were outgained. 

Four weeks ago, the Lions played in Chicago with Driskel at quarterback and lost 13-20.  But that was a hugely misleading final.  They outgained the Bears by 131 yards in that game.  They held Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s offense to just 216 yards while gaining 357 yards themselves.  They clearly should have won that game.  They were 6-point road dogs in that contest, and now they are 4.5-point home dogs in the rematch.  The line should be closer to PK when you adjust for home-field advantage. 

A whopping 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series were decided by one score.  And this game is likely to go down to the wire as well, so getting +4.5 points is a nice value.  And keep in mind the Bears are just 5-6 this season with only two of their wins coming by more than one score.  Plus, 10 of Detroit’s 11 games this season have been decided by one score, so they are much better than their 3-7-1 record would indicate. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Chicago) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1983.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with the Lions Thursday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +28 

The Akron Zips are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and we are getting them at a huge discount this week.  We’re getting the Zips as four-touchdown home underdogs on Senior Night in a game I know they are going to be max motivated to get their first win of the year. 

I cashed in Akron last week as 31.5-point underdogs at Miami (Ohio).  They only lost that game 17-20 and had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter.  That’s a Miami (Ohio) team that will be going to the MAC Championship. 

Ohio has been overrated all season because they were a popular pick to win the MAC this year.  The Bobcats are just 5-6 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  They have a good quarterback in Nathan Rourke, but the rest of their team has a lot of problems. 

Akron actually has the better defense in this matchup.  The Zips are giving up 396.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season.  Ohio is allowing 431.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on the year.  I don’t think the Bobcats should be favored by four touchdowns on the road with the worse defense. 

Akron’s offense has not been good, obviously, but they have been better with QB Kato Nelson under center.  He has 11 touchdowns against six interceptions and is a dual-threat who can escape pressure.  This offense has been a lot more effective in the games he didn’t miss with injury. 

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  The lone exception was last year with a very good Ohio team winning 49-28 at home against Akron as 24-point favorites.  Now the Bobcats are favored by 28 on the road this time around and they aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. 

Ohio is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 50 points or more in their previous game.  Frank Solich is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of Ohio.  Their game against Bowling Green was much closer than the final score showed last week, so we’re getting extra line value here because of it.  Take Akron Tuesday. 

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year.  Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs.  Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. 

The results cannot even be debated.  Roman is the dual-threat QB guru.  The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game.  Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt.  He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. 

The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season.  They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games.  But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since.  However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week.  Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season.  And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. 

I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses.  The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks.  The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks.  This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late.  I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. 

The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game.  Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -3 

The San Francisco 49ers are among the top three teams in the NFL in my opinion.  They are neck and neck with the Patriots and Ravens, and the numbers show it.  The 49ers are 8-2 with a +140 point differential, and the Ravens are 8-2 with a +145 differential and the Patriots are 9-1 with a +179 differential.  Fourth place is Minnesota at +84, and 5th place is Green Bay at +45. 

As you can see, the top three teams are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else.  And this number of 49ers -3 is basically saying these are equal teams when giving the 49ers 3 points for home-field advantage.  And they’re not even close to equal.  The 49ers have outscored their opponents by 140 points this season, while the Packers have only outscored theirs by 45.  The Packers have simply been fortunate in close games. 

The key stat here is the 49ers are far and away the better defensive team.  The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 253.0 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game allowed.  The Packers are 28th in total defense, giving up 384.7 yards per game.  Only the Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals and Bengals have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company. 

Another big key is the 49ers get George Kittle back this week.  There’s a reason they struggled with the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two games.  Being division opponents definitely is one reason, but the other is the 49ers were without Kittle.  He is worth more to the point spread than any non-QB in the NFL.  He set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end last year and is far and away Jimmy G’s favorite target.  The 49ers in general are more healthy than they were for those two games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that’s a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the best defense he’s seen yet this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Cowboys/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas +6 

The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 444.6 yards per game on the season as Dak Prescott is having an MVP year, and Zeke Elliott is one of the best backs in the NFL.  The Cowboys will test the Patriots’ defense like they haven’t been tested yet this year. 

Tom Brady is dealing with an elbow injury that saw him wind up on the injury report this week.  And Brady is going to be without two receivers in Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett.  This Patriots offense has been struggling due to a lack of weapons, plus Brady finally showing his age.  This is a lot of points for the Patriots to have to lay with an offense as lackluster as theirs. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games on the season in the second half of the season are 29-10 (74.4%) ATS over the last five years. 

The Cowboys are 6-4 on the season with three of their losses coming by 2, 2 and 4 points.  They have only been beaten once by more than 6 points in their 10 games this season.  The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Jason Garrett is 17-8 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 12-4 ATS in road games off a road game as the coach of the Cowboys.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans got hot in the 2nd half of the season last year and they’re doing it again this year.  They have won three of their last four behind the great play of Ryan Tannehill.  He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt while being a huge upgrade over Marcus Mariota. 

The Titans pulled off the huge 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs two weeks ago at home.  Now they are coming off a bye week and ready to keep their momentum going as they are just one game back of first place in the AFC South.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way now. 

The Jaguars are reeling after back-to-back blowout losses to Houston by 23 and Indianapolis by 20.  They could not stop the run against either team.  They gave up 216 rushing yards to the Texans and 264 to the Colts.  That’s bad news for the Jaguars having to face Derrick Henry this week. 

The Titans rushed for 225 yards on the Chiefs led by 188 and two scores from Henry.  This is the time of year when Henry came on strong last season, and he’s poised to do it against in 2019.  The Titans also want revenge from a 20-7 road loss to the Jaguars in their first meeting this season.  The Titans actually outgained the Jaguars by 48 yards in that game.  And that was back when Mariota was still starting and Jalen Ramsey was actually playing for the Jaguars.  These are two completely different teams now. 

Tennessee is still 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Jacksonville.  The Titans have rushed for an average of 160 yards per game in those five meetings.  And I expect them to top 200 rushing yards in this game with Tannehill also continuing his great play.  The Titans are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Jaguars.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +10 

The Carolina Panthers are in do-or-die mode now.  They are 5-5 on the season and needing a win to stay in the playoff race.  I know I’m going to get a big effort from the Panthers today with their season on the line and playing a division rival.  I love getting double-digits with the Panthers in this spot. 

This is the perfect week to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers.  They are coming off a 3-29 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons.  But that was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 2 yards.  Conversely, it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints, who are coming off a 34-17 blowout win over the Bucs.  But that was also a misleading final because the Saints were outgained by 6 yards.  The Bucs were only down 10 and Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the final minutes to make the score worse than it was.  We are getting line value now because of those two misleading finals. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New Orleans) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-11 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 9-1 ATS int he last 10 meetings in this series.  Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 trips to New Orleans.  Take the Panthers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Giants +6.5 

The New York Giants are coming off their bye week.  They are looking to finish the season strong to build for next year.  They already have their QB of the future, so they aren’t looking to tank.  And that’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the NFL today is that teams tank.  Players aren’t looking to lose their jobs by poor performance.  They show up every Sunday. 

I like the fact that Mitch Trubisky is starting over Chase Daniel.  It helps our bet here.  Trubisky is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt.  The Bears are scoring just 16.9 points per game on the season.  They are averaging 263 yards per game as well.  They can’t be trusted to lay a number like this to many teams in the NFL, especially a Giants team coming off their bye. 

Jones has a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last three games overall.  And I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Giants, who have lost six straight coming in.  We saw the Falcons respond from their bye at 1-7 and dominate their two games out of the bye.  I’m not saying the Giants will be as dominant, but they will put their best foot forward this week off their bye. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - off five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1983.  Teams on extended losing streaks are consistently undervalued this late in the seasons.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass.  New York is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +14 

We’ve made a lot of money fading Fresno State this year, and we’ll continue to do so tonight.  The Bulldogs came into the season way overvalued due to being the best covering team in the nation the previous two years.  But they only returned eight starters and it was a clear rebuilding year, yet the Bulldogs have been priced like the team they were the previous two seasons.  And it continues to be the case week after week. 

Fresno State is just 4-6 SU & 3-6-1 ATS this season.  Three of their four wins came by 14 points or less, and yet they are laying 14 points here to a Nevada team that is better than all four teams they’ve beaten outside of Hawaii, which they only beat on a last-second field goal.  Fresno has a win over Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, a win over New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites and a win over UNLV as 16.5-point favorites. 

Plus, Nevada is a 6-4 team that is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and ready to go.  The Wolf Pack have done a good job of turning their season around by winning and covering against New Mexico at home and pulling the 17-13 upset at San Diego State as 17.5-point dogs in their last two games coming in.  Now they carry that momentum into Fresno State this weekend. 

Fresno State has been outgained in five of its last six games.  The only exception was the 75 yards they outgained UNLV by in a very misleading 56-27 win.  They were outgained by 153 yards in a 24-43 loss at Air Force, by 112 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites, by 41 yards in their 3-point win over Hawaii, by 106 yards in their 35-37 upset home loss to Utah State and by 219 yards in their 7-17 loss at San Diego State last week. 

Fresno State had one of the best defenses in the country last year, but that has been far from the case this year.  The Bulldogs are giving up 33.8 points and 473.3 yards per game in Mountain West play this season.  This is a pretty bad conference, and they just gave up 425 yards to a bad San Diego State offense last week.  They had allowed 500-plus yards in three straight games prior to that SDSU game as well.  The back door will always be open for Nevada if needed, but I don’t think it will be needed.  The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford -1.5 

Stanford sits at 4-6 on the season.  The Cardinal need two more wins to get to a bowl game.  That’s important to them because they have a 10-year bowl streak alive and haven’t missed a bowl since the 2008 season.  And they certainly don’t want their season to come to an end at the hands of their biggest rival in Cal. 

Stanford is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with California.  And now the Cardinal just have to win this game at home to cover as only 1.5-point favorites.  I believe this is a gift from oddsmakers because despite having a down year, Stanford is still better than Cal this season. 

Injuries have hurt the Cardinal this season, but they have found their QB moving forward in Davis Mills.  He threw for a school-record 504 yards against Washington State last week.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,394 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and is averaging 8.7 per attempt.  He has actually been better than starter KJ Costello, and certainly better than their third-stringer, who was forced into action earlier this season.   

Mills led the 23-13 win over Washington, and he also led the win at Oregon State.  He just made his first start last week since that win over Washington back on September 5th.  I think the Cardinal’s record would be better if he started every game this year.  Cal just gave up 406 passing yards last week in a 17-41 loss to USC a week after giving up 407 passing yards to Washington State.  It’s clear you can throw on this Cal defense, and Mills will exploit it. 

Cal starting QB Chase Garbers just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, either.  He was knocked out of the loss to USC last week with a shoulder injury, and he’s questionable to play this week.  Backup Devin Monster has been awful in his place, completing just 50.8% of his passes with a 5-to-5 TD/INT ratio and 5.8 per attempt.  Garbers is at 57.6% with an 8-to-2 ratio and 7.9 per attempt, so it’s a big downgrade if Modster gets the start. 

This is a Cal offense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Bears only average 18.9 points and 304.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.7 points and 268.7 yards per game on the road.  The Bears are 2-5 in conference play and scoring just 15.9 points per game while averaging 265.4 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  That’s another reason they shouldn’t be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  Roll with Stanford Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -4.5 

Despite having a disastrous season up to this point, the Nebraska Cornhuskers sit at 4-6 on the season and still within reach of a bowl game.  You can bet Scott Frost doesn’t want the embarrassment of missing out on a bowl again, and he’ll have his players ready to go Saturday in Maryland. 

Conversely, Maryland just suffered its seventh loss of the season and sits at 3-7 on the year.  The Terrapins know they won’t be going to a bowl game, and I question their motivation.  This team has rarely even been competitive in Big Ten play this season.  The Terrapins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten action, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game.  They are a disaster right now, and head coach Mike Locksley is in trouble. 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska, which is 1-9 ATS in its 10 games this season while burning the betting public week after week.  They want nothing to do with this team now.  But it’s pretty easy to see the Huskers are better than their 4-6 record as they have continually blown lead after lead and cover after cover in the second half of games this season.  I don’t expect this game to even be close to give them a chance to blow it. 

Nebraska has actually outgained six of its last nine opponents with the only exceptions being a home game against Ohio State, and road losses to Purdue and Minnesota.  They actually outgained Wisconsin by 11 yards last week despite losing 21-37.  Their offense racked up 493 total yards on Wisconsin’s vaunted defense with 273 rushing and 220 passing.  Adrian Martinez is back to 100% healthy, and this offense should continue to flourish the final two weeks of the season. 

Maryland’s offense has been held to just 17.3 points and 283.7 yards per game in conference play this season, including 10.3 points and 194.0 yards per game in their last three.  I just don’t think they can be trusted to score at all and keep up with Nebraska’s high-powered offense.  Not to mention, the Terrapins are giving up 43.3 points and 504.9 yards per game in Big Ten play.  With those numbers, you can see we are getting Nebraska at a discount this week. 

The Huskers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Terrapins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games off a bye week.  Maryland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games.  I’m not concerned about Maryland coming off a bye because their season is over and they aren’t excited at all about this game.  Nebraska just had a bye prior to Wisconsin and will still be fresh and ready to go.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss -3.5 

I believe Southern Miss is a better team than Western Kentucky this year.  But that’s only part of the handicap.  A big part of the handicap is that Southern Miss is still alive for a Conference USA title, while Western Kentucky is not.  And thus the Golden Eagles have the motivational advantage coming into this one. 

Southern Miss is tied for first place in the C-USA West with LA Tech at 5-1 within the conference.  But the Golden Eagles lost to LA Tech, so they don’t hold the tiebreaker.  However, they got a huge break when LA Tech had its QB and Top WR suspended last week and this week.  After losing to Marshall badly last week, LA Tech now travels to face UAB this week and is nearly a 7-point underdog.  Chances are LA Tech loses that game, meaning a win for Southern Miss would put them in first place in the C-USA West. 

Western Kentucky is 4-2 within the conference.  They trail both Marshall (5-1) and Florida Atlantic (5-1).  The problem is that WKU lost to both of those teams, thus they are essentially two games back in the division.  They essentially have no chance of winning C-USA East now and thus don’t have much to play for.  They are already bowl eligible, which is a nice accomplishment in itself after what this program has gone through the last few seasons. 

Southern Miss is the real deal this season.  It is 7-3 this year with its only losses all coming on the road to Alabama, Mississippi State and LA Tech.  This despite facing a brutal schedule with only five home games this season compared to seven road games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 24.7 points per game and outgaining them by 181 yards per game. 

Western Kentucky is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and upsetting Arkansas last time out on the road.  But against the two best teams they have faced in C-USA, they lost on the road to Marshall and at home to FAU by 11.  All of their wins have come against suspect competition, and they also lost to Central Arkansas. 

The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.  Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS in its last eight November games.  And these teams have one common opponent in UAB.  WKU beat UAB 20-13 at home, while Southern Miss crushed UAB 37-2 at home.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +10 

This is the ultimate sandwich spot for the Michigan Wolverines.  They are coming off a huge win over their second-biggest rival in Michigan State.  And next week they play their biggest rival in Ohio State.  This is the game that they are likely to come out flat in as they won’t be up emotionally to face Indiana at all. 

But the Hoosiers are no longer the easy pushovers they used to be.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Michigan State (by 9) and Penn State (by 7), covering the spread in both games as 14 and 15-point dogs, respectively.  Their only blowout loss this season came to Ohio State, which is arguably the best team in the country. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after covering four straight and six of its last seven.  The oddsmakers are over adjusting here for it by making them double-digit road favorites.  If this was a normal game, this line would be high as it is.  But the fact that it’s a sandwich spot for Michigan is not being factored into the line. 

Indiana outgained Penn State by 91 yards on the road last week and probably deserved to win.  QB Peyton Ramsey has been playing some tremendous football in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr.  Ramsey is completing 72.7% of his passes for 1,673 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  He will be able to move the football on this Michigan defense. 

Indiana has played Michigan really tough the last few years.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  And despite being 0-4 SU, all four losses came by 11 points or less, including two in overtime.  You can bet the Hoosiers want to end their long losing streak to the Wolverines and will be highly motivated to do so.  And I think they finally have the team capable of pulling off the upset as they are complete on both sides of the football this year and showing some tremendous fight against good competition.  This is their Super Bowl on Senior Day. 

Plays against any team (Michigan) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning at least 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  Indiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after having won four of its last five games.  The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +20.5 

Boston College needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  They sit at 5-5 on the season and have two road games left at Notre Dame & Pitt.  It won’t be easy as they’ll need to pull an upset to get bowl eligible for the 6th time in seven seasons under Steve Addazio. 

The Eagles are in a great spot coming off their bye with two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame.  They are better than their 5-5 record as they have gone 1-3 in games decided by 7 points or less.  Their offense is really hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Eagles have gained 500-plus yards in five of their last six games coming in. 

Boston College is one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging 282 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  Notre Dame’s weakness has been stopping the run as they have given up 200-plus rushing yards four times this season and are allowing 169 rushing yards per game overall. 

I had Notre Dame last week against Navy as I thought the 7-point spread was too short.  And Notre Dame rolled to a 52-20 victory.  But Navy rushed for 281 yards on them and gave the game away with four turnovers.  And now Notre Dame will have to face a physical running team two weeks in a row.   

Notre Dame is 4-11 ATS the week after facing Navy the last 15 years.  It’s clear playing Navy takes a toll on them the next week.  Boston College’s offensive line is better than Notre Dame’s defensive line, and that’s why the Eagles have a chance to keep this one close.  That’s the key matchup in this game that is in Boston College’s favor. 

Addazio is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Boston College.  Notre Dame is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after leading its last two games by 14-plus points at halftime.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Boston College is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Notre Dame.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +14 

I love fading Minnesota in this spot.  The Golden Gophers just had their dreams of making the four-team playoff crushed with their loss to Iowa last week and their unbeaten season is over.  Teams usually struggle to rebound following such a devastating loss, and many times it’s the kind of loss that beats a team twice.  We’re just asking Minnesota not to win by more than two touchdowns this week, though. 

Another reason Minnesota has no incentive to show up this week is because the result of this game means nothing.  They could lose this game and beat Wisconsin next week and get to the Big Ten Championship Game.  They could beat Northwestern this week, but they’d still have to beat Wisconsin next week to get to the title game.  Essentially, this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. 

I am fairly certain this game means more to Northwestern.  It’s their Super Bowl getting to face a Top 25 team at home.  And It’s Senior Day, so you know the Wildcats will want to send their seniors out a winner.  Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best motivators in college football, and his teams show up almost every week as a result.  They will give the Gophers more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend. 

A big reason Northwestern’s record is so bad is because they have played the 24th-toughest schedule in the country.  Minnesota has played the 60th-ranked schedule, which is 34 spots lower.  And Northwestern has four losses this season by 10 points or less, so they haven’t fared well in close games.  I think this one will go down to the wire as well given the terrible spot for the Gophers. 

Minnesota star QB Tanner Morgan hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol.  He is worth a lot of points to the spread over a pair of freshmen backups who are battling to replace him in practice this week if need be.  And this line has been bet from Minnesota -7 to Minnesota -14 throughout the week, indicating that Morgan will likely play.  But if he doesn’t play, we have some tremendous value here.  I think it’s a good bet whether he plays or not, and this line move is unwarranted. 

Minnesota has only beaten Northwestern by more than 14 points one time in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 14-point spread.  The Wildcats are 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northwestern Saturday. 

20* Colorado State/Wyoming ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado State +7 

The Colorado State Rams sit at 4-6 and in need of a win to keep their bowl hopes alive.  That assures they’ll show up tonight at Wyoming, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright. 

The Rams have been grossly underrated after a slow start this season.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and have outgained five of seven opponents despite going just 3-4 SU during this stretch.  They have several misleading finals this season against some very good teams. 

On September 21st, Colorado State lost 35-41 to Toledo despite outgaining them by 147 yards.  They only lost 24-34 at Utah State their next game as 24-point dogs.  They did lose 10-24 at home to San Diego State but were only outgained by 3 yards.  They won 35-21 at New Mexico as 5-point favorites and outgained them by 206 yards.  They pulled the 41-31 upset at Fresno as 13.5-point dogs and outgained them by 112 yards.  They blew out UNLV 37-17 as 7.5-point home favorites. 

Last week, Colorado State gave Air Force everything they wanted.  And that’s an Air Force team that is arguably the best in the Mountain West.  The Rams led 14-10 heading into the 4th quarter, but were outscored 28-7 in the final period.  They were going in at the 1-yard line to make it a 3-point game in the final minutes, but threw a 99-yard INT returned for a TD.  They wound up losing by 17 as 10.5-point dogs, which was one of the worst bad beats of the season.  They outgained Air Force by 33 yards in the loss.  I think that misleading final is creating extra line value for us on Colorado State this week. 

Wyoming had a chance to win the Mountain West, but lost at Boise State two weeks ago.  They also lost at Utah State last week and now have no chance to win the Mountain West.  Sitting at 6-4 on the season, they are already bowl eligible and have little to play for.  I certainly question their motivation tonight compared to that of Colorado State, which is still playing for a bowl. 

Wyoming lost starting QB Sean Chambers a couple weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury.  That was a huge blow because backup Tyler Vander Waal has been awful in his place.  Vander Waal is completing just 52% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions while averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt.  He also is not a runner, whereas Chambers was a dual-threat who had 567 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 per carry on the ground.  Not having to defend that dual-threat makes Wyoming’s offense one of the worst in the country now with Vander Waal. 

Colorado State boasts one of the best offenses that Wyoming will have faced this season.  The Rams average 30.6 points and 460.5 yards per game on the season.  Wyoming has faced one of the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the country as their opponents only average 22.9 points and 367 yards per game on the year.  And Wyoming is probably the biggest fraud of any bowl eligible team in the country.  The Cowboys have actually been outgained in eight of their 10 games this season despite their 6-4 record. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Wyoming) - after having lost two of their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Wyoming is 0-6 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado State Friday. 

Note: Buy from +6.5 to +7 (-120)

20* Colts/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 this season in games started and finished by Jacoby Brissett this season.  They lost the only two games he didn’t play the entire way to the Steelers and Dolphins.  But they got him back last week, and the Colts promptly crushed the Jaguars 33-13 at home. 

Brissett wasn’t asked to do much because the Colts ran all over the Jaguars for 264 rushing yards.  That’s bad news for the Texans, which just gave up 263 rushing yards to the Ravens last week.  The Texans lost that game 7-41 and were outgained by 259 yards.  This is a team that I just don’t trust now now because they lost J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury and their offensive and defensive lines are terrible. 

Yes, the Texans have the flash with Watson and his receivers, but the Colts have the substance.  The Colts can sustain success because they have one of the league’s best offensive lines and also one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Colts are 11th in total defense at 325.6 yards per game while the Texans are 25th at 374.4 yards per game allowed.  And keep in mind the Colts were banged up on D for much of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been now.  And the Texans are banged up on D now. 

The Colts own the Texans, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indianapolis is 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston.  The Texans are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. AFC South opponents.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet the Colts Thursday. 

15* NC State/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2 

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 4-6 on the season.  They have a lot more to play for tonight as they still have a chance to make a bowl game if they win out.  And with a game on deck at home against rival UNC, they have a legitimate chance to win their final two games of the season.  Wrong team favored here. 

Yes, NC State is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  But that’s why we are getting great value on the Wolfpack as underdogs to the worst team in the ACC in Georgia Tech tonight.  And keep in mind those games were closer than the final scores.  NC State outgained three of its six opponents during this 1-5 skid, including outgaining Louisville by 51 yards last week in a 20-34 loss. 

Georgia Tech is every bit as bad as its 2-8 SU & 2-7-1 ATS record would indicate.  The Yellow Jackets have been outgained in nine of their 10 games this season with the only exception being outgaining a bad Duke team by 6 yards.  It’s a Georgia Tech team getting outgained by 121.7 yards per game on the season.  To compare, NC State is still outgaining opponents by 6.3 yards per game on the season. 

Plays on road underdogs (NC State) - after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that’s off a loss by 17 points or more are 64-27 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Georgia Tech is coming off a 45-0 home loss to Virginia Tech while getting held to just 134 total yards.  Yet the Yellow Jackets are favored this week.  Give me a break.  Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games.  The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take NC State Thursday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +32 

The Akron Zips are 0-10 SU & 0-10 ATS this season.  The chances of them going 0-12 ATS for the entire season are slim to none.  Oddsmakers are going to adjust knowing that the betting public wants to keep fading them because they haven’t covered yet.  And I think they’ve adjusted too much tonight. 

The Zips just recently got starting QB Kato Nelson back from injury.  He threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns against Eastern Michigan last week while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  That’s the same Eastern Michigan team that just rolled Northern Illinois 45-17 on the road last night. 

I just don’t think Miami Ohio is going to be motivated enough to put away Akron by 31-plus points tonight.  Miami Ohio already clinched the MAC East last week with their win over Bowling Green.  They have the tiebreaker on their closest pursuers with head-to-head wins, and I think they will be flat tonight as a result.  They would need to be fully invested to cover this big of a number as they only have one win all season that would cover 32 points. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Miami Ohio) - off a home win, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio.  Take Akron Wednesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -5 

The Northern Illinois Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive last week with a huge 31-28 road win at Toledo to improve to 4-6 on the season.  Now they have two home games to finish the season and have a legit chance of making a bowl.  They need to handle their business here against Eastern Michigan to do so. 

Eastern Michigan is 5-5 this season with a home game on deck next week against Kent State that they will be heavily favored in.  They know they can afford to lose this game and still make a bowl.  Sure, they want to beat Northern Illinois, but it’s not as urgent to win this game as it is for the Huskies. 

I simply believe NIU is the better team despite having the worse record.  The Huskies have played a brutal schedule this season with seven road games compared to three home games.  And those seven road games featured non-conference games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, as well as trips to four of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, Miami, Central Michigan and Toledo.  The Huskies are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 18.7 points per game and holding foes to 12.3 points and 217.3 yards per game. 

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  These teams have faced the same four opponents.  Eastern Michigan is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS against them, getting outscored by 1.7 points per game and outgained by 68.7 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play.  Northern Illinois is 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS against those four teams, outscoring them by 1.7 points per game and only getting outgained by 27.3 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play. 

I like the matchup for NIU on both sides of the ball.  Their weakness this season has been stopping the run, but EMU only averages 118 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  NIU is great against the pass, giving up just 208 passing yards per game, and they’ll be able to slow down an EMU offense averaging 273 passing yards per game.  NIU has topped 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games coming in and should be able to run the ball at will on an EMU defense that allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  The Eagles have also been terrible against the pass, giving up 63.4% completions and 8.3 yards per attempt. 

Northern Illinois is 11-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Eastern Michigan.  The Huskies are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog over a conference opponent.  The Eagles are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Eastern Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday. 

25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs -4 

The Kansas City Chiefs just got Patrick Mahomes back from injury last week.  He played as good as he could have and the Chiefs deserved to win, but special teams mistakes cost them in a 32-35 road loss to the Titans.  It’s a Titans team that just simply has their number and has beaten some very good teams at home the last few seasons. 

The Chiefs had 530 total yards on the Titans and obviously should have won in a very misleading loss.  They outgained the Titans by 159 yards.  Mahomes went 36-of-50 passing for 446 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  He has his full compliment of weapons now and the Chiefs will be tough to tame the rest of the way.  The Chiefs are averaging 28.4 points and 404.4 yards per game this season, and that includes 2.5 games where they were missing Mahomes.  I expect them to get 30-plus Monday. 

Philip Rivers just hasn’t looked right all season.  He is finally starting to show his age as his arm strength is awful.  He went 17-of-31 passing for 207 yards with 3 interceptions against the Raiders last week and it would have been 5 INT's if not for two that were called back by penalties.  The Chargers are scoring just 20.7 points per game this season.  While the Chargers have a solid defense, their offense is holding them back, and I don’t think they can match the Chiefs score for score in this one. 

I like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a loss, which makes them even more motivated this week.  The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a loss.  Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  The Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC West opponents.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Chargers in games played away from Arrowhead Stadium.  Bet the Chiefs Monday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +11 

I like the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They want revenge from a 25-28 loss as 10.5-point dogs to the 49ers just two weeks ago.  And after losing by only a field goal, they are now catching 11 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much. 

The Cardinals found something in the 2nd half with their hurry-up offense that gave the 49ers problems.  They gained 357 yards on the 49ers' vaunted defense, which was a season-high allowed by the 49ers.  Look for them to go to the hurry-up sooner in this one to try and slow down that San Francisco pass rush. 

The 49ers will be on a short week after going into overtime against the Seahawks Monday Night.  They will be tired, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Their bubble was burst as their unbeaten season is now over.  That just screams hangover. 

Plus, the 49ers had a ton of guys go down with injury in that loss to the Seahawks.  They lost two defensive linemen in Ronald Blair and D.J. Jones.  Center Weston Richburg left the game with a hand injury.  WR Emmanuel Sanders left with a rib injury, and RB Matt Brida left with an ankle injury.  LT Joe Staley just returned last week only to go down with a finger injury that will sideline him.  George Kittle sat out that game with a knee injury and may not be ready to return.  The 49ers are as vulnerable as they have been all season due to all these injuries. 

The 49ers are clearly overvalued due to their record as they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games.  Now they are double-digit favorites here against a division rival when they shouldn’t be.  Arizona has quietly gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall, yet they still get no respect from the books. 

The 49ers are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games following a Monday Night Football game.  Arizona is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 against good defensive teams that allow 260 or fewer yards per game.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 division road games in a rematch.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -4.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because bettors simply don’t want to buy into Lamar Jackson.  The fact of the matter is Jackson is a good quarterback and an MVP candidate.  And until bettors believe it, they’ll continue to be undervalued. 

The Ravens have won five straight and covered three straight coming in.  That includes a 14-point win at Seattle, a 17-point home win over New England, and a 36-point demolition of Cincinnati on the road.  This team is hungry for more and smells blood in the water.  Now the Ravens have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Patriots. 

Jackson leads a Ravens offense that is 1st in scoring at 33.3 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 421.7 yards per game.  Offensive coordinator Greg Romans in his his first year with the team.  Romans is the best dual-threat QB coordinator in the history of the NFL.  He was responsible for Colin Kaepernick’s rise with the 49ers, and he also led Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he has the best dual-threat he’s ever had in Jackson. 

Defensively, the Ravens started the season pretty rough.  But since getting healthy on that side of the ball with the return of star CB Jimmy Smith and the trade for CB Marcus Peters, the Ravens have been dominant defensively here down the stretch.  The Ravens have allowed just 17.8 points per game and only 303 yards per game during their five-game winning streak. 

Teams coming off a bye following a London game are 0-6 ATS this season.  And I worry about the Texans being fat and happy following their 26-3 win over the Jaguars.  But that was a misleading win as the Jaguars gave the game way with four turnovers and simply couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  Almost all the turnovers came deep in Houston territory. 

J.J. Watt was one of the most destructive forces in the NFL this season before going down with a season-ending injury a few weeks back.  Now this is a Houston defense that is going to struggle to stop anyone the rest of the season.  They gave up 30 points and 383 yards to the Colts in a 23-30 loss three games back, gave up 24 points and 378 yards to the Raiders in a fortunate 27-24 home win two games ago, and the Jaguars had 356 total yards on them last time out despite only scoring 3 points.  This high-powered Ravens offense is going to have it way with this Houston defense. 

Houston is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off a bye following their trip to London.  Look for them to put forth their best effort of the season today, especially with QB Nick Foles returning as their starting quarterback.  Gardner Minshew did a good job of holding down the fort while he was gone, but Foles is still clearly the better starter. 

The Jaguars are about as healthy as they’ve been all season now too after the bye.  The same cannot be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without T.Y. Hilton, and they are 0-7 in their last seven games in which Hilton has sat.  They simply lack weapons at receiver without him and are too predictable.  He is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. 

I think the Jaguars come in undervalued after their blowout loss to the Texans in London.  Well, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  But the Jaguars gave it away with four turnovers as Minshew had his worst game as a starter, which ultimately led to Foles replacing him this week. 

The Colts are coming off a 12-16 upset loss to the Dolphins as 11-point favorites.  They managed just 300 yards on Miami and committed three turnovers.  QB Jacoby Brissett is going to give it a go this week, but he is clearly still going to be slowed by a knee injury and won’t be 100%.  And now that he doesn’t have TY Hilton, he’s going to struggle against a solid Jaguars defense. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Jacksonville) - off a loss by 21 or more points against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC opponents.  The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +21.5 

The Utah Utes went into their bye week fat and happy after beating Washington on the road 33-28.  Now they’ve had two weeks to get patted on the back after appearing in the Top 10 of the college football playoff rankings.  I expect them to come out flat this week against UCLA. 

And I just simply believe it’s time to ’sell high’ on the Utes after they have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are quickly becoming one of the most public teams in the country as the betting public keeps getting rewarded by backing them.  I think that stops this weekend. 

UCLA was left for dead after a 1-5 start this season.  But we saw UCLA struggle in the first half of the season last year and play great in the 2nd half.  The same thing has happened this year.  UCLA has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games to improve to 4-5 on the season. 

They upset Stanford 34-16 as 4-point road dogs. They beat Arizona State 42-32 as 3.5-point road dogs in a game they led 42-10 going into the 4th quarter before pulling their starters and getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  And they dominated Colorado 31-14 as 6.5-point home favorites last time out. 

Now the Bruins need to win two of their last three games to make a bowl game and will be ‘all in’ this week.  Not to mention, a victory Saturday would move UCLA into a tie for first place in the Pac-12 South.  The Bruins also come off their bye week, so this young team will only get better with the extra prep time. 

Getting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson back from injury has made all the difference for the Bruins.  Being without him is the reason they lost to Arizona and Oregon State, or they’d have a better record than they do.  And they have gotten power running back Joshua Kelley going.  He has rushed for 466 yards and 7 touchdowns during their three-game winning streak.   

In fact, the Bruins have rushed for at least 200 yards in five straight games for the first time since 1978.  They are starting to play the way that Chip Kelly envisioned when he took over the program last year.  Kelly is 14-1 ATS in road games after a game where his team committed one or fewer turnovers as a college football head coach.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

15* LSU/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +21.5 

This is an awful spot to back LSU.  I’ve been backing LSU a lot this season, but I realize this is the worst spot they have been in all year.  I’m going to fade them because of it and grab Ole Miss +21.5 at home to keep it within three touchdowns. 

LSU is coming off a grueling, program-changing 46-41 win over Alabama last week on the road.  They won’t have much left in the tank after that win, and they certainly won’t be fully focused for Ole Miss this week.  They have been getting patted on the back all week with their No. 1 playoff ranking.  It’s only human nature for these young players to have an emotional letdown off such a huge win.  They probably think they just have to show up to win this week, but that won’t be the case. 

Ole Miss made easy work of New Mexico State in a 41-3 victory as 28-point favorites last week.  They got to rest their starters in the second half and save some energy for LSU this week, because they know they are going to need it.  Sitting at 4-6 on the season, this is Ole Miss’ Super Bowl, a chance to knock off the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  They will be more motivated in this game than any other game this season. 

Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee is one of the best-kept secrets in the country.  The Ole Miss offense has been humming every since he took over at quarterback, and they can match LSU score for score with him at the helm.  Plumlee has thrown for 66 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 777 yards and seven scores on 6.8 per carry.  His dual-threat ability gives the Rebels a chance to keep the chains and the clock moving and to keep that potent LSU offense on the sideline. 

While the LSU offense is possibly the best in program history, the LSU defense isn’t as stout as it has been in years’ past.  The Tigers are giving up 22.3 points and 340.4 yards per game, including 32.5 points and 446.2 yards per game in their four road games this season.  Texas scored 38, Vanderbilt scored 38, Alabama scored 41 and Florida scored 28 on this LSU defense.  It can be done, and the Rebels will pull out all the stops this week.  That’s especially the case knowing they have a bye on deck next week to get ready for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. 

LSU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (LSU) - a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards per game, after gaining 525 or more total yards per game in their last two games are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* Texas/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Texas +7 

For starters, this is the first time that Texas has ever been an underdog to Iowa State dating back to at least 1980.  And not only are they dogs, they are 7-point dogs here, which gives us room to spare even if Iowa State does win this game.  The Cyclones simply aren’t 7 points better than Texas. 

The Longhorns have a lot more to play for than Iowa State.  If they win this game and win at Baylor next week, they could be going to the Big 12 title game.  They would need Oklahoma to beat Baylor this week, but considering the Sooners are double-digits favorites, they chances of them winning that game are pretty good. 

Texas put themselves in this position by erasing a 14-0 deficit to Kansas State last week and coming back to win 27-24.  However, that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate.  The Longhorns had a 477-304 yard edge over the Wildcats, outgaining them by 173 yards.  The Wildcats got a kickoff return TD that made it interesting late, but the Longhorns were able to hold them off for the win.  And now that puts them in this Big 12 title chase position they are in. 

Iowa State has to be feeling snake-bitten.  The Cyclones have four losses this season by a combined 11 points.  I think the loss to Oklahoma last week was the last straw.  They trailed by 21 points in the fourth quarter, came storming back to tie it, but decided to go for a 2-point conversion and the win and came up short.  They have bounced back nicely from losses before, but I think they have taken all the close losses they can handle this season.  I don’t expect them to be in a good mental state now that they are officially eliminated from Big 12 title contention. 

Tom Herman is an animal as an underdog.  Herman is 15-3 ATS as an underdog in his head-coaching career, which includes 11 outright upsets.  Not to mention, dating back to his time as an offensive coordinator, he is 25-4 ATS as an underdog.  Iowa State is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa State) - after having lost two of their last there games, with a winning record on the season are 47-16 (74.6%) ATS over the last fie seasons.  Plays on road underdogs (Texas) - off a home conference win against an opponent that’s off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Texas Saturday. 

20* Navy/Notre Dame Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -7 

Notre Dame opened as a double-digit favorite where they should have been against Navy.  This number has been bet all the way down to Notre Dame -7 now, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Fighting Irish laying only a touchdown to the Midshipmen. 

No team has improved more since last year than Navy, which went 3-10 and lost to Army again.  Now the Midshipmen have opened 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and betting public has taken notice.  Simply put, the time to back Navy was the first half of the season, not now that everyone has caught on.  That’s why we’ll ’sell high’ on the Midshipmen this week as they are one of the most popular public underdogs on the board. 

Navy has benefitted from playing the 97th-toughest schedule in the country, while Notre Dame has played the 31st-toughest.  That’s 66 spots difference between these teams in strength of schedule.  This will easily be Navy’s toughest test yet this season, and much tougher than their 23-35 loss at Memphis when they were 11-point dogs.  Notre Dame is better than Memphis, yet it is only a 7-point favorite compared to 11 for Memphis.  That fact alone shows you that there’s value with Notre Dame here. 

The Fighting Irish really impressed me last week by going into Duke and handling their business 38-7 as 7-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in after suffering their second loss of the season at Michigan, but they did not.  They suffered a hangover the next week against VA Tech and needed a late touchdown to win 21-20 as 17.5-point favorites.  I was on VA Tech in that game and felt fortunate to get the cover as Notre Dame outgained the Hokies by 207 yards.  Notre Dame went on to destroy Duke last week and outgain them by 272 yards.  The hangover is gone, and it’s clear Notre Dame is still motivated to get the best bowl they can and another double-digit win season. 

Notre Dame has been a double-digit favorite against Navy in seven of the last eight meetings.  That’s how rare this single-digit line is.  And when the line has been low, Notre Dame has been a bad football team.  That’s not the case this year as the Fighting Irish are still one of the 15-20 best teams in the country.  Notre Dame is 22-4 SU in the last 26 meetings while being favored by an average of 18.8 points per game.  Notre Dame is 11-2 SU in the last 13 home meetings and has been favored by an average of 20.1 points per game.  These numbers also show that this -7 price is cheap. 

Plays against any team (Navy) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, a team that wins 80% or more of their games on the season while playing another team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Notre Dame is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home games with 12 of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  Ken Niumatalolo is 5-15 ATS in road games off a bye week as the coach of Navy.  Brian Kelly is 30-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% in all games he has coached.  The Fighting Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +14.5 

The Penn State Nittany Lions just had their bubble worst.  After starting 8-0, they just lost to Minnesota on the road last week and likely won’t be going to the four-team playoff now.  I said they were a fraud all along anyway, so it was about time they lost a close game after surviving several others.  And if they win this game Saturday against Indiana, it won’t be by more than two touchdowns. 

Penn State is in a ‘hangover’ spot from that loss to Minnesota.  It’s also a ’sandwich’ spot because they have a huge game at Ohio State on deck.  Look for the Nittany Lions to come out flat today against Indiana.  I love the fact that this is an early 12:00 EST start time because the fans won’t be nearly as rowdy as they would be for a ‘white out’.  Also, fans won’t be as excited now that the Nittany Lions aren’t undefeated any more. 

The reason I’ve said Penn State is a fraud this year is because they were outgained in four of their first eight games this season despite being 8-0.  They were outgained by both Buffalo and Pitt at home, were outgained by 62 yards in a fortunate 17-12 win at Iowa, and were outgained by 124 yards in a fortunate 28-21 home win over Michigan.  They have been outgained in three of their five home games this season. 

Indiana is one of the most improved teams in the country at 7-2 this season.  And the Hoosiers have been flying under the radar all year as they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have three wins by 31-plus points during this stretch, and road wins over Maryland and Nebraska.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road at Michigan State by 9 back before Sparty had a ton of players get injured and were playing well.  Now Indiana has two full weeks to prepare for Penn State after having a bye following its 34-3 dismantling of Northwestern two weekends ago. 

Jameis Franklin has been awful as a head coach of Penn State following any kind of loss.  Indeed, Franklin is 3-14 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Nittany Lions having never covered in this spot.  He clearly just doesn’t get through to his players when they are coming off a defeat. 

Adding to Indiana’s motivation this week is the fact that it lost 28-33 at home to Penn State last year as 14-point dogs in a game they felt like they should have won.  The Hoosiers had a 32-20 edge in first downs and a 554-417 yard edge, outgaining the Nittany Lions by 137 yards.  They haven’t forgotten about that defeat and will want to exact some revenge here. 

Plays on road underdogs (Indiana) - an excellent offensive team averaging 440 or more yards per game against an average offensive team (390-440 YPG), after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Indiana Saturday. 

15* Michigan State/Michigan FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -13.5 

Mark Dantonio just seems to have lost his magic at Michigan State.  The Spartans went 3-9 in 2016 and just 7-6 in 2018.  They will be fortunate to even make a bowl game this year.  I just don’t like the mental state of the Spartans right now off four straight losses while going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

After getting blasted by three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State by 24, Wisconsin by 38 and Penn State by 21, the Spartans returned from their bye last week and seemed primed for a good performance.  Instead, they blew a 28-3 lead and lost to lowly Illinois 34-37 as 16-point favorites.  I don’t see how you come back from that kind of a defeat as they gave up 27 points in the 4th quarter. 

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than Michigan State.  They lost leading receiver Darrell Stewart a few weeks ago to a leg injury.  They lost leading tackler Joe Bachie for the season recently, who is the heart and soul of their defense.  Meanwhile, Michigan is almost fully healthy with only three players listed on the injury report compared to 15 for Michigan State.  And the Wolverines come in rested and ready to go off their bye week and ready to finish the season strong. 

It’s like the Wolverines flipped the switch after falling behind 21-0 against Penn State.  They came back and nearly won in a 21-28 loss in a ‘white out’ game at night at Penn State.  They outgained the Nittany Lions by 124 yards and probably should have won.  They responded with one of the most impressive wins by any team this season, a 45-14 home win over Notre Dame while outgaining the Fighting Irish by 257 yards.  And last time out they avoided a letdown and rolled Maryland 38-7 as 21.5-point road favorites. 

This Michigan offense has come to life in the second half of the season.  The Wolverines are averaging 36.5 points per game in their last four games despite facing some elite defenses in Notre Dame and Penn State.  I just don’t see how Michigan State can keep up with their putrid offense, which averages just 23.1 points and 366 yards per game this season.  Michigan is 5-0 at home this season and allowing just 11.8 points and 227 yards per game at the Big House. 

Michigan State has been a thorn in Michigan’s side, especially before Jim Harbaugh took over.  But the Wolverines have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-7 win last year on the road.  This is their chance to kick ‘little brother’ while he is down, and you know the Wolverines are going to want to take full advantage.  I see no way the Spartans stay within two touchdowns. 

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Michigan Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +17.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks are certainly improved in their first season under Les Miles.  They played Oklahoma (20-45), Texas (48-50) and Texas Tech (37-34) tougher than the books expected while going 3-0 ATS.  And after they finally got their Big 12 win over Texas Tech, they suffered a letdown the next week and were blown out by Kansas State. 

Now it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Jayhawks after everyone has forgotten about them following that loss to Kansas State, which simply owns them.  The Jayhawks have had two full weeks to stew over that loss and get ready for Oklahoma State.  I think the bye week came at a perfect time for them. 

Oklahoma State is also off a bye week, but it’s bad timing for them.  The Cowboys are coming off two straight wins over Iowa State as 11-point road dogs and TCU as 1-point home favorites.  They had some momentum built up by catching both Iowa State and TCU off guard.  Now they are back in the role of the favorite, which hasn’t gone too well for them. 

The Cowboys were previously upset by Texas Tech as 9.5-point road favorites in a 35-45 loss.  They were also upset at home as 6-point favorites against Baylor in a 27-45 defeat.  I just don’t think the Cowboys can be trusted to lay this big of a number in conference play because they turn the ball over too much, and their three conference wins have come by 7, 7 and 13 points. 

Kansas stud QB Carter Stanley is back healthy now after getting knocked out of that loss to Kansas State with an injury.  Stanley is completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,015 yards with 19 touchdowns and only seven interceptions while averaging a solid 7.6 yards per attempt.  Pooka Williams has been productive since coming back from suspension, rushing for 765 yards and three touchdowns on 5.1 per carry.   

This is one of the most improved offenses in the country and they’re fully capable of matching Oklahoma State score for score.  The Jayhawks showed it in their 48-50 loss at Texas and their 37-34 win over Texas Tech, which are two teams that have beaten Oklahoma State this season.  The Cowboys are giving up 32.2 points and 463.7 yards per game in Big 12 play, and they can’t be laying 17 points with that putrid defense. 

The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

25* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall -4.5 

Motivation will be on Marshall’s side this week.  The Thundering Herd are 0.5 games behind the FAU Owls for first place in the C-USA East.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Owls after winning on the road as 4-point dogs, so they control their own destiny. 

Conversely, Louisiana Tech will have a hard time getting motivated this week because they have the inside track to win the much weaker C-USA West.  They are 5-0 in the conference and a loss to Marshall will not hurt them because they hold the tiebreaker over 4-1 Southern Miss after winning head-to-head.  So they essentially have a two-game lead in the division. 

The spot is also a good one for Marshall, which comes off a bye week and has had two full weeks to get ready for LA Tech.  Conversely, LA Tech will be on a short week after playing this past Saturday against North Texas.  It’s crazy how the schedule makers have given Marshall such a huge rest advantage coming into this weeknight game. 

Louisiana Tech has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have played the 145th-ranked schedule.  That means some FCS teams have even played harder schedules than they have.  Their eight wins have come against Grambling, Bowling Green, FIU, Rice, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas.  And they barely beat Grambling (20-14) and Rice (23-20). 

There are rumors surrounding the Louisiana Tech program that several key players could be suspended for this game, including QB J’mar Smith, who has thrown for 2,483 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 226 yards and two scores.  If the news comes out soon, this line will jump even more than it already has.  The good news is I like Marshall at this line regardless if anyone for LA Tech is suspended.  It would just be an added bonus if they were suspended. 

Plays against any team (LA Tech) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season against a team with a winning record are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss to Cincinnati.  Bet Marshall Friday. 

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  That’s a big reason why they haven’t lived up to the hype at 3-6 on the season.  But they’re not dead yet.  They turned things around with a huge 19-16 home win over the Bills last week, and now they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way to make a run in the second half of the season. 

The Browns are in a stretch here of four of five home games.  They host the Steelers, Dolphins and Bengals coming up, and they have winnable road games against the Steelers, Cardinals and Bengals.  They also host the Ravens.  They could conceivably run the table against this schedule as they will likely only be underdogs twice, and small dogs at that. 

While the Browns are only getting outgunned by 7.7 yards per game this season, the Steelers are getting outgained by 49.4 yards per game.  The Browns aren’t as bad as their 3-6 record, and the Steelers aren’t as good as their 5-4 record.  I believe the oddsmakers are warranted in making the Browns the favorites in this game despite having the worse record. 

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers have played a home-heavy schedule this year with six home games compared to only three road games.  They have just one road win all season, and that was a fluky win over the Chargers.  They finish the season playing five of their final seven games on the highway and their true colors will show here down the stretch. 

It’s a Steelers offense that I just cannot trust with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.8 yards per game.  They were very fortunate to win each of their last two games as they managed just 273 yards against the Colts and 273 yards against the Rams as well.  The Steelers have forced a league-high 25 turnovers defensively, and there’s no way they can keep up this pace.  They have forced multiple turnovers in a whopping eight straight games coming in.  I don’t trust teams that rely on turnovers. 

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Browns Thursday. 

15* Buffalo/Kent State MAC No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

The Kent State Golden Flashes have been one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  They are only 3-6, but they have been much more competitive this year than last year.  Each of their last three losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  And while they are 2-3 in conference play, they are actually outscoring opponents by 9.8 points per game in MAC action. 

I think the Golden Flashes will give a big effort here at home Thursday night in this standalone MAC game.  This is their final stand if they want to stay alive for a bowl game since they have six losses on the season.  They played both Ohio (38-45) and Toledo (33-35) tough on the road, and Miami Ohio (16-23) at home.  Those are three of the best teams in the MAC.  If they can hang with them, they can certainly hang with Buffalo tonight. 

The Bulls come in overvalued on a three-game winning streak while also covering four in a row.  Their wins over bottom feeders Akron and Eastern Michigan weren’t impressive at all.  And their win over Central Michigan was very fluky because the Chippewas gave the game away with five turnovers.   

Kent State isn’t a team that beats itself with turnovers as the Golden Flashes haven’t committed more than two in any game this season, and they’ve only committed nine in nine games on the season.  Buffalo has been relying on turnovers during its 4-0 ATS streak, forcing a total of 12 turnovers in its last four games overall.  I don’t trust teams that rely on forcing turnovers to win games. 

Kent State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - off a road cover where they lost as an underdogs, with 6-plus more total starters returning than their opponent are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Kent State Thursday. 

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -2 

The Toledo Rockets sit at 6-3 and are in control of their own destiny in winning the MAC West.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Western Michigan after beating the Broncos at home.  The position they are in assures they will show up week in and week out to try and win the MAC West. 

Now the Rockets host a poor Northern Illinois team that is just 3-6 this season and clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Huskies are coming off an ugly 10-48 road loss to Central Michigan in which they gave up 615 total yards and committed four turnovers.  I don’t understand why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers.  Their name carries some weight, but this has been a rebuilding project all year after losing their head coach in the offseason. 

Toledo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.  Their offense has lit up the scoreboard with 35.2 points and 489.6 yards per game at home this year.  Northern Illinois is 1-5 on the road, getting outscored by 16.4 points per game.  Their offense has only managed 19.3 points per game on the highway this season, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with Toledo on the scoreboard in this one. 

The Rockets also have the matchup advantage.  They rush for 250 yards per game and 5.4 per carry on the season.  Well, Northern Illinois gives up 175 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  They give up 0.8 yards per carry more than their opponents rush for on average.  The Rockets should be able to run the football at will on them. 

Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS off a game where it forced zero turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS int heir last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Bet Toledo Wednesday. 

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan/Akron UNDER 46.5 

There has been snow and rain in Akron all day Tuesday.  There is a chance of precipitation all day today.  The temperature will be around 23 degrees by game time and it will be windy.  These are perfect conditions for a bet on the UNDER tonight. 

Akron is challenging UMass for the worst team in football.  The Zips are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS.  Their biggest problem has been their putrid offense, which averages just 10.2 points and 255.6 yards per game on the season.  The Zips have scored a total of 9 points in their last four games, an average of just 2.3 points per game. 

It’s not like Eastern Michigan has been lighting up the scoreboard since getting into MAC play, either.  The Eagles are scoring just 24.2 points per game in their five MAC games this season.  And the Zips have at least been respectable defensively this season in giving up 390 yards per game and 5.4 per play. 

These teams met last year with Eastern Michigan winning 27-7 for 34 combined points.  I think we see a similar output from both teams tonight as this game stays well UNDER the total. 

Akron is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER vs. teams who allow 31 or more points per game over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Eagles last four games following a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Zips last seven Tuesday games.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Zips last 61 conference games.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Zips last 52 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Seahawks/49ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -6 

The San Francisco 49ers are 8-0 and nothing has been fluky at all about their start.  They are outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 7th in total offense at 390.2 yards per game and 1st in total defense at 241.0 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 149.2 yards per game on the season, which is the best mark in the entire NFL.  Only two of their eight wins have come by less than 9 points. 

Now the 49ers come in on extra rest after beating the Cardinals last Thursday.  That extra rest should allow for some key pieces to come back as T Joe Staley and FB Kyle Juszczyk are both expected to be ready to go by Monday.  Fellow T Mike McGlinchey has also been upgraded to questionable, and getting at least two of these three guys back will make the offense even more potent.  They do lose LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury, but they will get back more than they lose this week. 

The Seahawks are 7-2, but their record is certainly fluky, and they are starting to run out of gas since they haven’t had a bye week yet.  The Seahawks are only outscoring teams by 2.0 points per game and outgaining them by 14.2 yards per game this season.  Seattle has gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, getting extremely fortunate in close games, including narrow wins over bad teams in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa.   

Seattle has a leaky stop unit that ranks 25th in total defense at 380.2 yards per game and 22nd in scoring defense at 25.6 points per game.  The 49ers rank 2nd in yards per play (4.5) allowed defensively, while the Seahawks are 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  And that right there is going to be the difference in this game. 

The Seahawks have been relying on Russell Wilson to move the football through the air.  Well, he hasn’t seen a pass rush like the one the 49ers will throw at him.  And he certainly hasn’t faced a passing defense as good as the 49ers.  San Francisco ranks 1st in the NFL with just 138.1 passing yards per game allowed. 

The 49ers have the 2nd-ranked rushing offense in the NFL at 171.1 yards per game.  With FB Juszczyk back paving the way for their RB’s, this rushing attack will get even more potent moving forward.  The Seahawks rank 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7) allowed this season, so the 49ers should be able to move the football at will.  That will open things up for the play-action passing game with Jimmy G, who is coming off his best game of the season with 317 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. 

The 49ers are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 Monday Night Football games.  We last saw them blitz the Browns 31-3 on Monday Night Football earlier this season.  San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 

Reasons for Cowboys -3: 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late.  They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each.  But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. 

The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive.  They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since.  Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers.  They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. 

In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play.  Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary.  Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game).  They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. 

I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games.  Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games.  He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys.  Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games.  Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins.  And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs.  The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. 

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers.  It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards.  The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. 

Reasons for UNDER 48: 

Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession.  The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game.  Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. 

Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season.  The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game.  The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game.  Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. 

Both teams have elite defenses.  The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed.  The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game.   

These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans.  The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. 

Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records.  And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs.  The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now.  Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. 

Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams -3.5 

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  The Rams are coming off a bye following their win over the Bengals in London.  They’ll be rested and ready to go today.  Road favorites off a bye are 75-38 (66%) in the last 113 tries.  The Rams are 8-1 SU and scoring 36 points per game with extra time to prepare under Sean McVey. 

The Rams have been dominant defensively since trading for Jalen Ramsey to give their secondary a huge boost.  They gave up just 10 points at Atlanta and just 10 points to the Bengals while outscoring those two teams by a combined 41 points, or an average of 20.5 points per game. 

The Steelers are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their three-game winning streak.  It has come against the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts.  The Chargers gave the game away with three turnovers, the Dolphins gave the game away with four turnovers, and the Colts gave the game away with three turnovers.  Pittsburgh has been relying on turnovers all season. 

Well, the Rams have only committed one turnover in their last three games combined, so they aren’t a team that just gives the ball away.  The Steelers were lucky to have Jacoby Brissett get injured for the Colts early last week so they had to face Brian Hoyer instead.  And they still nearly lost as Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning 41-yard field goal. 

I just don’t see how the Steelers can keep up on the scoreboard in this game because they don’t have the firepower to match Jared Goff and company.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 290.8 yards per game.  Mason Rudolph clearly just isn’t very good, and their predictable offense is built around a short passing game with the majority of his pass attempts going to running backs.  The Steelers are averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the league.  They are also 26th in rushing offense at 88.4 yards per game.  Pittsburgh is unlikely to get James Conner back from a shoulder injury as he’s listed as doubtful. 

Sean McVay is a perfect 7-0 ATS against poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as the coach of Los Angeles.  The Rams are winning by nearly 20 points per game in this spot.  This trend makes sense to me because teams that can’t run the ball consistently aren’t able to control the time of possession and keep the Rams’ high-powered offense off the field.  The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and have been covering machines on the highway since McVey took over.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* Missouri/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia -16 

It’s like everyone wrote off Georgia after a fluky loss to South Carolina in which they outgained the Gamecocks by 171 yards and should have won.  This is still one of the best teams in the country.  And after opening ranked 6th in the initial playoff rankings, they can certainly use some style points here down the stretch.  That’s part of the reason why I’m laying the 16 points here with the Bulldogs. 

Georgia was dominant last week in its 24-17 win over Florida in which the Bulldogs outgained the Gators by 120 yards.  Jake Fromm proved there was nothing wrong with him, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against a very good Florida defense.  The Bulldogs held the Gators to a season-low 278 yards, including 21 rushing on 19 carries. 

Georgia has outgained all eight of its opponents this season and six of those by 120 yards or more.  The Bulldogs are outgaining opponents by over 194 yards per game and outscoring them by 23.1 points per game on the season.  They have an elite defense that allows 11.4 points and 268.1 yards per game. 

Missouri is 5-0 at home this season against a soft schedule, but the Tigers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road. They are scoring just 17.3 points per game on the highway and getting outscored by 11.7 points per game.  This despite the fact that they have had a soft road schedule and have been double-digit favorites in all three road games.  They lost 31-37 as 15.5-point favorites at Wyoming, lost 14-21 as 21.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt, and lost 7-29 as 10-point favorites at Kentucky.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 82 points in their three road games. 

Now, the Tigers face their stiffest test of the season on the road at Georgia this week.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 16-point dogs given what we’ve seen from them on the highway thus far this season.  Part of the reason the line is low is because Missouri is off a bye, but QB Kelly Bryant came up limp with a hamstring injury last game and won’t be fully healthy even with the bye.  And Georgia had a bye before Florida, so the Bulldogs will still be fresh this week.  And like I said the Bulldogs need style points so they will be plenty motivated this week. 

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven November games.  Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  Georgia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  I like the fact that this is a night game and the fans will be rowdy in a great atmosphere in Athens.  Bet Georgia Saturday. 

15* LSU/Alabama CBS No-Brainer on LSU +6.5 

The LSU Tigers finally have the team to beat Alabama.  The Les Miles era is over, and there’s a new sheriff in town in Ed Orgeron.  Orgeron has proven himself quickly at LSU by going 7-1 SU against Top 10 teams in his last eight matchups against them.  I really believe LSU is neck and neck with Ohio State as the best team in the country this year. 

The reason LSU has a chance to beat Alabama finally is because they have their best offense in program history.  The Tigers have gone to a more up-tempo passing game to take advantage of all their athletes.  The result has been an average of 46.7 points and 535.9 yards per game this season.  Joe Burrow is a Heisman favorite while completing 78.8% of his passes for 2,805 yards with a 30-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.8 yards per attempt. 

LSU has proven its meddle against a much tougher schedule than that of Alabama.  LSU has played the 34th-toughest schedule, while Alabama has played the 59th.  LSU has already played and disposed of two top 10 teams in Florida and Auburn.  And I think the fact that they only beat Auburn 23-20 last time out actually has them undervalued here.   

That was a hugely misleading final as LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards and racked up 508 total yards on what is a very good Auburn defense.  They also had 42 points and 511 total yards against Florida’s vaunted defense.  You would be hard-pressed finding two better defenses in the country.  Now the Tigers get to go up against what is a weak Alabama defense by their standards.  Alabama has allowed 23 points to South Carolina, 31 points to Ole Miss and 28 points to Texas A&M this season.  None of those offenses compare to the one LSU is going to throw at them. 

No question Alabama also has an explosive offense.  But QB Tua Tagovailoa won’t be 100% after having knee surgery at the end of October.  And there’s an outside shot he doesn’t play.  Either way, this will be the best defense that Alabama has faced this season, and it’s not even close.  LSU gives up just 20.0 points and 315.4 yards per game on the year.  The Tigers still have the same type of dominant defense they always have, except this year they have an offense that can compliment it. 

LSU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games overall.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Orgeron is 11-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of LSU.  Bet LSU Saturday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State -1.5 

I love the spot for for the Arizona State Sun Devils here.  They opened 5-1, but back-to-back road losses to Utah and UCLA have dropped them to 5-3 on the season.  Now they have had two weeks to stew over those losses and get ready for USC coming to town this week.  They’ll be rested and ready to go and highly motivated for a victory in Tempe Saturday. 

The Clay Helton rumors are swirling at USC after an ugly 24-56 home loss to USC last week.  He is squarely on the hot seat and may be losing his team.  Of course, it doesn’t help that the Trojans are more banged up than most teams in the country.  They are missing key players all over the field on both sides of the ball, which hasn’t helped their cause. 

USC is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season.  They lost to BYU, Washington and Notre Dame and were extremely fortunate to beat Colorado 35-31 as 10.5-point favorites, needing to come back from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to escape with victory from the jaws of defeat.  They’ll fall to 1-4 on the highway with yet another loss Saturday. 

Arizona State has one of the best defenses in the country, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  The Sun Devils allow 21.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  USC allows 28.3 points, 426.7 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.   

I think the bye week is huge for freshman QB Jayden Daniels and his growth.  Daniels has an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season, is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and has added 273 rushing yards and three scores. Daniels should be able to find plenty of success against this soft, banged-up USC defense that just gave up 56 points to Oregon last week. 

Arizona State is a tremendous 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest.  The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  Clay Helton is 0-8 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are losing by 17.0 points per game in this spot.  The Trojans are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +14.5 

The Illinois Fighting Illini sit at 5-4 and on the verge of making their first bowl game since 2014.  It is Year 3 in the Lovie Smith era, and he is finally putting his stamp on this program.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue the momentum they have built over the last 3-4 weeks and to give Michigan State a run for its money Saturday. 

Illinois is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The run actually started when they trailed 28-0 against Michigan and fought back to make it 28-25 before eventually coming up short.  The Fighting Illini pulled the upset of the season the next week in a 24-23 win as 29-point home dogs to Wisconsin.  And they’ve gone on to prove that loss wasn’t a fluke and to avoid a letdown by beating Purdue 24-6 on the road and Rutgers 38-10 at home. 

Michigan State went just 3-9 a few years ago, and it is having another disastrous season in 2019.  The Spartans sit at 4-4 and are coming off three straight ugly losses to Ohio State (10-34), Wisconsin (0-38) and Penn State (7-28).  Those were three games they had circled coming into they season, and they lost all three in blowout fashion.  I can’t see them getting back up off the mat in time to want to put Illinois away by more than two touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this inflated 14.5-point spread.  And it’s a sandwich spot with rival Michigan on deck next week. 

As has been the case throughout the years, it’s just tough to lay big numbers with Michigan State because of their offense.  The Spartans only average 21.7 points per game this season and have been a dumpster fire on that side of the ball once again.  And I know Michigan State is coming off a bye, but how excited could they have been on that bye week off three straight losses and their season ruined?  I think Illinois is ‘all in’ this week knowing it has a bye on deck next week. 

Mark Dantonio is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of Michigan State.  Dantonio is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 21 or more points as the coach of the Spartans.  Illinois is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a game where it committed zero turnovers.  The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays against home favorites (Michigan State) - after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games against an opponent that scored 37 or more points last game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Illinois Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Stanford -3 

The Stanford Cardinal have done a great job of keeping it together following a tough start to the season.  They have had to start three different quarterbacks due to injuries, and they’ve had some injuries along the offensive line that have forced several freshmen into action.  The bye week came at a great time here as the Cardinal have had two weeks to get healthy and get ready for Colorado this weekend. 

Now, the Cardinal are as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  They sit at 4-4 and have their sights set on a bowl game when it didn’t seem possible when they were sitting at 1-3.  They have gone 3-1 since and got starting QB K.J. Costello back from injury last time out in a 41-31 home win over Arizona.  He makes all the difference for this team as he decided to forego the NFL and come back for his senior season.  Their only loss during this stretch came when they had to start their 3rd-string QB against UCLA. 

Colorado basically has nothing to play for at this point sitting at 3-6 on the season.  The Buffaloes won’t be winning their final three games to make a bowl because they still have to play Washington and Utah.  They have lost five straight coming in going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  They are just 1-5 in Pac-12 play and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game.  I think we are getting Stanford very cheap here as only 3-point favorites. 

The Cardinal are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Buffaloes are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine November games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.  The Buffaloes are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 November road games.  The Buffaloes are 0-12 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College -2 

Florida State had their 36-year bowl streak snapped last season with a 5-7 record.  It was the longest streak in college football.  They have no motivation to keep that streak alive now that it was snapped last season.  I have no doubt players are just ready to be done with this disastrous season. 

Willie Taggart was fired over the weekend after an ugly 10-27 home loss to rival Miami.  The Seminoles managed just 203 total yards against Miami and were outgained by 150 yards.  Odell Haggins takes over as interim coach.  And while he’s trying to say all the right things, I just have no doubt players won’t respond.  I expect them to lose this game at Boston College and the regular season finale at Florida to miss out on a bowl again. 

Boston College is really showing some life here down the stretch.  Few teams have been more undervalued than the Eagles.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only losses coming at Clemson, to Wake Forest by 3 and at Louisville by 2. 

They beat NC State by 21 and won at Syracuse by 31 in two of their last three games that surrounded the blowout loss at Clemson.  Their offense racked up 532 yards on NC State including 429 rushing.  They added 691 yards against Syracuse and rushed for 496.  Look for their offensive line to dominate Florida State’s defensive line, and winning the battle in the trenches is going to be their key to getting a win here. 

The Eagles know this is their best chance to clinch a bowl game as they sit at 5-4 on the year.  They still have road games coming up against Notre Dame and Pitt to close the season, ending a stretch of four of their final five games away from home.  That makes this Senior Day for them and their final home game, only adding too their motivation. 

The Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  Boston College is 10-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing 58% completions or worse over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 1-9 ATS after playing a hoe game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 0-10 ATS off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three years.  The Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  Take Boston College Saturday. 

20* Penn State/Minnesota ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will be playing the disrespected card this week leading up to this huge showdown with Penn State.  I guarantee you PJ Fleck has told his players that nobody believes in them after they came out ranked No. 17 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  I think they will be ‘all in’ and that ranking actually takes the pressure off of them from being unbeaten and puts more of the pressure on Penn State in this game as the road favorite. 

Fleck is quickly proving himself as one of the best head coaches in the country.  He went 5-7 in his first season, took them to a bowl and a 7-6 record in his second season, and now has them 8-0 and in the playoff conversation in his third year.  I realize it has come against a soft schedule, but you can only play the teams that are in front of you, and what impresses me is how much this veteran team that returned 16 starters is improving as the season goes on. 

Indeed, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in Big Ten play this season.  They went on the road and beat Purdue as underdogs 38-31.  They blew out Illinois 40-17 as 14-point home favorites, the same Illinois team that is on a three-game winning streak with a win over Wisconsin.  They crushed Nebraska 34-7 as 7.5-point favorites.  They handled their business at Rutgers 42-7 as 28-point favorites.  And they crushed Maryland 52-10 as 14-point favorites.  It’s not like they are squeaking by teams, outscoring their five Big Ten opponents by 26.8 points per game and outgunning them by 201.2 yards per game. 

Penn State is the team that is the fraud coming in.  The Nittany Lions are 8-0, but they have been outgained in four of their eight games.  They were outgained by Buffalo, Pitt, Iowa and Michigan and fortunate to win all four of those games.  To compare, Minnesota has only been outgained once in its eight games this season.  No team that gets outgained in half of their games should be 8-0. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after scoring 42 points in two straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Penn State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Nittany Lions are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.  Penn State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off an ATS win.  The Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday. 

15* Washington/Oregon State Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10.5 

After losing three of their last four games to Stanford, Oregon and Utah, the Washington Huskies have nothing to play for now.  They had dreams of winning the Pac-12, but those dreams are crushed now.  They best they can do is go to a bowl game at 5-4.  I think they suffer a hangover from their tough 28-33 home loss to Utah last week. 

Oregon State has life and momentum right now.  The Beavers have won three of their last four to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now have a legitimate shot of going to a bowl game.  It’s a team that has been grossly underrated all season, especially since they got into Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Most impressively, Oregon State’s last three wins have all come on the road in upset fashion.  The Bears upset UCLA 48-31 as 4.5-point road dogs.  After losing at home to Utah, they went back on the road and topped California 21-17 as 10.5-point dogs.  And last week they went on the road and topped Arizona 56-38 as 4.5-point dogs.  They have covered the spread by a combined 58.5 points in those three games to show just how undervalued they’ve been. 

Now, the Beavers are catching double-digits at home against a deflated Washington team.  The home crowd will be a huge advantage for them here on this standalone Friday night game as fans are finally excited about this program with a chance to get to a bowl.  Head coach Jonathan Smith is doing a fantastic job.  He is a former player here, so fans are even more excited for him and this team. 

Oregon State boasts the best offense it has had in years.  The Beavers are scoring 33.6 points per game and averaging 431.1 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 177 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry, as well as 254 passing yards per game.  And Washington’s defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it once was, giving up 25.3 points and 392.2 yards per game in conference play.  It shouldn’t be too surprising considering the Huskies only returned two starts on D this year. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points (Oregon State) - a good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPPG) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Beavers are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games after covering the spread in four of their last five games coming in.  The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Take Oregon State Friday.

20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +1.5 

The Oakland Raiders have been undervalued all season.  Despite playing a brutal schedule with five straight games away from home, they have gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  Give Jon Gruden and his players credit for taking a step forward this season and getting themselves into playoff contention midway through the season. 

While the Raiders have faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this year, the Chargers have played the 23rd-ranked schedule.  That’s a difference of 21 spots in strength of schedule.  Yet the Chargers are just 4-5 on the season and on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. 

I think the only reason the Chargers are favored in this game is because everyone assumes they are going to make a run in the second half of the season like they always seem to do.  They come in having won two in a row to start their run, and while their performance against the Packers was impressive, it was a Packers team that is one of the most overrated in the NFL with a leaky defense.  And they had no business beating the Bears, who outgained the Chargers by 157 yards and missed a last-second field goal. 

The Raiders have been competitive in every game except for their loss to the Chiefs back in Week 2 where they were outgained by 160 yards.  They haven’t been outgained by more than 83 yards in any other game this season.  And they are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season. 

Derek Carr leads the NFL in completion percentage at 71.2% with a 13-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  And Josh Jacobs has given this offense an identity that they haven’t had in years.  Jacobs has rushed for 740 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  This balanced attack has been tough for teams to tame here of late as the Raiders have scored at least 24 points in five straight games coming in. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as a home underdog, after the first month of the season are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Raiders Thursday. 

15* Temple/USF ESPN No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5 

Charlie Strong deserves a lot of credit for turning around USF’s season following a 1-3 start.  The Bulls have gone 3-1 since with an upset home win over BYU and blowout road wins over UConn by 26 and ECU by 25 to improve to 4-4 on the season.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the road against a powerhouse Navy team. 

Now, the Bulls sit at 4-4 and with a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.  If they are going to go bowling, this is a must-win situation for them because they have some very tough games coming up next against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF.  Look for the Bulls to handle their business and pull off the upset at home tonight. 

Temple is coming off arguably its three biggest games of the season upsetting Memphis at home, but getting blown out by SMU by 24 on the road and by UCF by 42 at home.  And that was a fluky win over Memphis as the Tigers committed four turnovers to give the game away. 

South Florida has been able to run the ball at will on opponents, averaging 180 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  And during this run they are averaging 263.3 rushing yards per game 6.5 per carry in their last four games overall.  Now they face a Temple team that has allowed an average of 291.5 rushing yards per game in their last two games against SMU and UCF.  Look for the Bulls to be able to run at will on this Temple defense. 

The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Florida has won by 36 and 21 in its two home meetings with Temple during this stretch.  And the Bulls were the only team to cover on the road in this series as they only lost 17-27 as 14-point dogs at Temple last year.  The Bulls want some revenge from that defeat adding to their motivation.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.   

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USF) - after outrushing its last opponent by 150 or more yards against a team that was outrushed by 125 or more yards in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take South Florida Thursday. 

15* Miami (OH)/Ohio ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +7 

The Ohio Bobcats have been overvalued all season because they were the popular pick to win the MAC this year.  They have disappointed, going 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS despite playing the 103rd-ranked schedule in the country.  Their inexperience has shown as they returned just 10 starters this year.  The Bobcats continue to be overvalued here as 7-point favorites against Miami Ohio. 

The Redhawks have also gone 4-4 this season, but it has come against the 60th-ranked schedule in the country.  That’s 43 spots tougher than the slate Ohio has faced.  They have had to play road games against Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, which have resulted in three of their four losses. 

That tough schedule has helped Miami Ohio get ready for MAC play.  They have dominated in MAC action, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with upset home wins over Buffalo and Northern Illinois, as well as an upset road win at Kent State.  The fact that they were dogs in all three of those games just goes to show how disrespected this team is and how undervalued they have been after that tough start against that schedule. 

Yes, Miami Ohio lost 16-38 at Western Michigan, but that was one of the most misleading finals in the MAC this season.  The Redhawks outgained the Broncos by 55 yards and held their explosive offense to just 310 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-1.  They only trailed 16-21 in the 4th quarter but the Broncos tacked on 17 points in the final 7:22 to make the final margin look worse than it really was. 

Ohio has been outgained in five of its eight games this season and is getting outgained by 35 yards per game on the season.  The Bobcats have a leaky defense that allows 446.4 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They have given up 39 points to Northern Illinois and 38 points to Kent State in two of their last three games, which are two of the worst offenses in the MAC. 

Miami Ohio is 9-1 ATS after playing a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Redhawks are 10-2 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Miami Ohio Wednesday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo -6.5 

The Toledo Rockets are undervalued right now because they lost two straight road games to Bowling Green and Ball State in ugly fashion.  But as usual, the Rockets have a tremendous home-field advantage, and that will be the case again here in a standalone MAC Tuesday night home game.  The Rockets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season winning by 15.5 points per game. 

Kent State is certainly improved this season, but let’s be honest, they haven’t beaten anyone.  The Golden Flashes are 3-5 this season with their three wins coming against Kennesaw State (by 3), Bowling Green and Akron.  They are 0-5 against everyone else with all five losses by 7 points or more and by an average of 24.8 points per game. 

Toledo will have a massive advantage on the ground in this game.  The Rockets are rushing for 245 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  Kent State gives up a whopping 251 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  I just don’t see how the Golden Flashes are going to get off the field with their run defense.  Toledo should be able to score at will. 

Toledo is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Kent State with all four wins coming by double-digits and by an average of 19 points per game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a. Winning record.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Toledo is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.  Bet Toledo Tuesday. 

20* Cowboys/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here Monday night because they are coming off their bye week, and they went into their bye with a blowout home win over the Eagles.  But their bye week advantage is certainly negated some here because the Giants get an extra day of rest as well with this game being played on Monday Night Football. 

The Cowboys had lost three straight prior to that win over the Eagles.  And their other three wins came against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.  That was a Giants team in the season opener that wasn’t very good and was starting Eli Manning.  They have been a much better offensive football team since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback, and they are starting to get healthy. 

Jones has led the Giants to an average of 21.7 points per game in his six starts this season.  And keep in mind the Giants have been without Saquon Barkley, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard at various times in those six games.  Now, he’ll have all four weapons healthy and playing in this game Monday night for the first time this season.  This is going to be a dangerous Giants offense moving forward with his Jones’ full compliment of weapons. 

The Cowboys have had offensive line injuries bite them once again this season.  Tyron Smith is back healthy, but both G Zack Martin and T La’el Collins are questionable heading into this game.  And while the Cowboys have put up some good numbers this season, it has come against the league’s 30th-ranked schedule.  The Giants have faced a much more difficult slate and will be out for revenge tonight at home. 

Dallas is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.  New York is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games coming in. Pat Shurmur is 14-3 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as a head coach.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

15* Browns/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  They have played a brutal stretch of games here of late with five in a row against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots who are a combined 32-7 this season.  It’s a big reason they are just 2-5 on the season. 

I believe the Browns are undervalued right now due to their record.  But the schedule gets a lot easier moving forward, starting with this showdown with the hapless Denver Broncos, who are 2-6 this season.  The Browns still believe they can make some noise, and they will be ‘all in’ this week to try and turn their season around and get a victory. 

The Broncos have to be deflated right now.  They led almost the entire way against the Colts last week, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 13-15.  They just keep losing close games, but they also have three losses by 8 points or more.  It’s a team that I think will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way because they know they have no chance of catching the Chiefs in the division, while the Browns still have hope to win their division. 

Now the Broncos will give Brandon Allen his first career start after Joe Flacco went on injured receiver with a neck injury following that loss to the Colts last week.  “Honestly, I haven’t had too much work with him,” conceded Broncos top wideout Courtland Sutton.  That’s a bad sign for the Broncos this week, especially since they just traded away their other top weapon in Emmanuel Sanders.  I just can’t foresee their offense having very much success against Cleveland’s defense this week. 

Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss, in November games are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  Their downward spiral continues this week against a highly motivated Browns team ready to bust out.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 

The Seattle Seahawks just don’t have the home-field advantage they used to.  They are 6-2 this season, but both of their losses this season came at home to Ravens & Saints.  Their two home wins this season each came by a single point over the Bengals and Rams.  They haven’t gotten margin at home yet this season, and they shouldn’t be laying 6 points here to the Bucs. 

The Seahawks have played the 23rd-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The Bucs are 2-5, but they have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  And they’ve been competitive in basically every game they’ve played.  The problem with them is turnovers.  They have committed 11 of them in their last two games yet still had a chance to win both.  If they just take care of the football, the Buccaneers can beat anyone. 

We saw that when they went on the road and upset the Rams 55-40 as 9-point dogs.  They also upset the Panthers on the road, and only lost to the Saints by 7 on the road.  Last week they lost 23-27 at Tennessee, but they deserved to win that game as they outgained the Titans by 143 yards.  Turnovers hurt them, but refs did them no favors either blowing a play dead that would have been a TD in their favor and changed the outcome. 

The Seahawks allowed a whopping 512 total yards to Matt Schaub and the Atlanta Falcons last week.  This is a bad Seattle defense that ranks 23rd in total defense giving up 376.1 yards per game and 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  Conversely, the Bucs are improved greatly defensively this season, ranking 14th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

The Seahawks have a huge game on deck against the 49ers in a division rivalry.  They could easily be overlooking the Bucs here and looking ahead to that divisional showdown against the undefeated 49ers.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Now they have to try and get margin here against a Bucs team that is way better than their record would indicate. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that is winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - with a scoring defense that allows 27 or more points per game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +1 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are much better than their record would indicate.  They are 3-4 this season, but their four losses have come to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens, who are a combined 27-4 on the season.  And three of those losses came by 4 points or less, which just shows how close they are to being a 6-1 team.  But because they actually have a losing record, they are undervalued right now and should not be home underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts this week. 

The Colts are 5-2 and are overvalued because of their record.  All seven of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, so they have been extremely fortunate in close games.  They trailed the entire way against the Broncos at home last week and needed a last-second field goal to escape with a 15-13 victory.  That’s a bad Broncos team, and I think their luck comes to an end this week. 

The Colts have some key injuries here that are getting overlooked.  They will be without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton due to a calf injury.  The Colts are 0-5 SU without Hilton in the lineup over the last couple seasons. They could be without both LB Justin Houston and FS Malik Hooker, who are both questionable.  I know James Conner is doubtful for the Steelers, but other than him they are relatively healthy. 

I think both offenses are pretty comparable here with backup QB’s in Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett.  However, there is a big advantage for the Steelers on defense in this one.  Pittsburgh ranks 7th in yards per play (5.1) allowed.  Indianapolis ranks 22nd in yards per play (5.9) allowed.  Yards per play is easily the most important stat to determine how good a defense is. 

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Pittsburgh is 32-20 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin.  The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Indianapolis.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL London GAME OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have really become a good team once Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in his seven starts with their three losses coming to Houston (by 1), Carolina (by 7) and New Orleans (by 7).  So they have been competitive in every game.  Their four wins have come by an average of 9.8 points pre game. 

Now the Jaguars head over to London determined for revenge from a 12-13 loss at Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was Minshew’s first career start, and he still nearly led the Jaguars to a win.  They came up inches short on a two-point conversion in the closing seconds.  They have gone 4-2 since that defeat and are coming off back-to-back wins by double-digits.  Minshew is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Jacksonville is certainly used to this London trip.  The Jaguars have been over to London for seven straight seasons, and fans over there are starting to adopt them as their team.  In fact, I actually think they have a bigger home-field advantage in London then they do in Jacksonville.   

The Jaguars have flown out late in the week to London here recently and have everything figured out that goes along with the trip.  Players won’t be distracted because they are used to it.  And the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four London games despite being an underdog in all four.  They have covered the spread by an average of over 10 points per game in these contests. 

Houston isn’t the same team that Jacksonville faced the first time these teams met.  The Texans are now without their most important defender in J.J. Watt, who suffered a torn pectoral muscle against the Raiders last week.  Their defense was already pretty soft, and now it’s going to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Watt moving forward.  Especially since they have cluster injuries at cornerback.  The Texans are also missing their big playmaker in Will Fuller at receiver.  Stats have shown that Watson is a much better quarterback with Fuller on the field than off of it. 

I just haven’t been impressed at all with the Texans here lately as it is.  They are 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They lost 23-30 at Indianapolis and trailed the entire way.  And last week they trailed basically the entire way against Oakland until late in the fourth quarter and were fortunate to win 27-24 as 5.5-point favorites. 

It’s well documented that Deshaun Watson takes more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.  A big part of that is poor offensive line play, but it’s also because he holds onto the ball too long and tries to extend plays too often.  Well, the Texans have been at their worst offensively against teams like the Jaguars that get after the quarterback.  The Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL in sacks (29).  They held the Texans to 13 points in their first meeting. 

Bill O’Brien is 0-6 ATS after having 34 possession minutes or more and 24 or more first downs in their previous game as the coach of Houston having never covered in this situation.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

15* Fresno State/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii -1.5 

No team covered more spreads than Fresno State and Jeff Tedford for two seasons running in 2017 and 2018.  As a result, the Bulldogs came into 2019 way overvalued, and bettors just seem to be stuck on the past.  The fact of the matter is this is a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs as they returned only nine starters, including three on offense.  They simply aren’t as good as they were in 2017 and 2018. 

Indeed, Fresno State is just 3-4 SU & 2-4-1 ATS through its first seven games of the season.  Their three wins have come against Sacramento State by 14 as 24.5-point favorites, New Mexico State by 13 as 21-point favorites, and UNLV by 29 as 16.5-point favorites.  Those are two of the worst FBS teams in the country and an FCS team. 

When Fresno State has stepped up in class, they have lost.  They lost their first two games of the season to USC and Minnesota.  Then in conference play they lost 24-43 at Air Force as 3-point dogs and were thoroughly outplayed.  And last week they were upset 31-41 by Colorado State at home as 13.5-point favorites.  They gave up 500 total yards to Colorado State.  Their defense has suffered the biggest drop off as they have allowed 31 or more points four times this year. 

Hawaii is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rainbow Warriors are 5-3 this season with their only losses coming to Washington and Boise State on the road, as well as Air Force at home.  They have impressive wins over Arizona and Oregon State in the Pac-12, a dominant 54-3 win at Nevada, and a solid 45-31 win at New Mexico last week. 

I think a big reason we are getting Hawaii as less than a field goal favorite was due to that 45-31 win at New Mexico last week.  That final score was a lot closer than the game really was.  In fact, Hawaii led New Mexico 45-10 with just under eight minutes left in the game.  They pulled their starters, and New Mexico tacked on three touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  It was certainly a misleading final. 

Fresno State’s soft defense that is allowing 31.0 points per game this season will now get a huge test up against an explosive Hawaii offense that is putting up 36.6 points and 488.1 yards per game this season.  Head coach Nick Rolovich has implemented the run-and-shoot offense, and his players are executing it to perfection now.  It’s a veteran Hawaii team that returned 18 starters this year and is in Year 2 of the season. 

Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset loss a home favorite.  The Bulldogs are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games off a home loss.  Hawaii is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games after gaining 575 or more total yards in its previous game.  Jeff Tedford is 0-8 ATS when he total is 63.5 to 70 in all games he has coached having never covered the spread in this situation.  Tedford is also 12-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Take Hawaii Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -6.5 

The UCLA Bruins have the same feel of last year.  They started terribly last year and finished strong.  And this year they are doing the same thing.  They played as tough a schedule as anyone in the early going and opened 1-5.  But they have since pulled outright upsets over Stanford and Arizona State each of the last two weeks in dominant fashion. 

Now, at 3-5 the Bruins feel like they can make a run at a bowl game.  They still have home games against Colorado and California left which are two games they should win.  And I’m taking them this week against Colorado in a game they only have to win by a touchdown or more to cover this 6.5-point spread. 

Two weeks ago, UCLA got Dorian Thompson-Robinson back at QB from injury after he had miss the previous two games in losses to Oregon State and Arizona.  It made all the difference.  UCLA blitzed Stanford 34-16 on the road and outgained the Cardinal by 257 yards while racking up 455 total yards. 

Last week, I was on UCLA as 4-point home dogs to Arizona State.  They stormed out to a 42-10 lead by the end of the third quarter before pulling their starters.  Arizona State actually outscored UCLA 22-0 in the fourth quarter to make it a misleading 42-32 final.  I think that works in our favor here.  If UCLA had won 42-10 like they should have, the Bruins would be more than 6.5-point favorites here. 

I also think Colorado is getting too much respect for its close 31-35 home loss to USC last week.  Well, that was a USC team in a sandwich spot off a big game against Notre Dame the previous week, and with a game on deck against Oregon.  The Trojans came out flat and it nearly cost them.  But they rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to win.  Now, Colorado has to be deflated from that defeat because it was their chance to beat USC for the first time in school history.  I think the Buffaloes now suffer a hangover from that loss. 

It’s not like the Buffaloes were even competitive before that loss to USC, either.  They had gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with an upset home loss to Arizona, and blowout road losses to Oregon (3-45) as 23-point dogs and at Washington State (10-41) as 13.5-point dogs.  Simply put, this Colorado team just isn’t very good, going 1-4 in conference play and getting outscored by 15.8 points per game.  UCLA is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in conference play, outscoring opponents by 2.4 points per game. 

Colorado is 0-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 1-12 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points per scored over the last three years.  The Buffaloes are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  The Bruins are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games.  Bet UCLA Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +20 

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  Auburn just suffered its dream-crushing loss to LSU last week.  That was the 2nd SEC loss for the Tigers, who certainly won’t be winning the SEC West now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that 20-23 defeat to LSU. 

Not to mention, it was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  LSU outgained Auburn by 221 yards.  They moved the ball up and down the field on Auburn’s defense with 508 total yards.  But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, which was the only reason it was even close.  Bo Nix had another terrible game completing just 15 of his 35 pass attempts for 157 yards.  Now Auburn has to try and get back up off the mat and put away Ole Miss by three touchdowns or more.  That’s a lot to ask 

Ole Miss is coming off a bye week and will be rested and ready to go.  It’s an Ole Miss team that is 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving.  Ole Miss lost 17-24 to Texas A&M last time out.  But they were covering almost the entire way in that game as 6-point dogs. 

Texas A&M got a 62-yard fumble recovery TD that gave them their first lead of the game, and they scored another TD with only 2:34 left.  Ole Miss outgained Texas A&M by 65 yards and held them to 340 total yards.  I’ve been very impressed with the improvement of this Ole Miss defense this season under new coordinator Mike MacIntyre.  And the offense is coming around under Rich Rodriquez.  They scored 31 points on Alabama and another 27 at Missouri in their two most recent road games. 

I think the Rebels can go into Auburn and give the Tigers a run for their money this weekend given the favorable spot for the them off the bye week.  And I know I’m going to get max effort out of this Ole Miss team because they sit at 3-5 and are desperate to make a bowl game after missing out on a bowl game by one win with a 5-7 record.  This is kind of their ‘all in’ game this week. 

Ole Miss has only lost one of its last eight meetings with Auburn by more than 18 points.  And that was a 21-point loss a couple years ago.  The Rebels haven’t lost by more than 21 points in any of the last 13 meetings in this series as well.  As you can see, they have pretty much been competitive in every game with Auburn over the last 13 years, especially when factoring in this point-spread range as a level of competitiveness. 

Plays against any team (Auburn) a good offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7-plus games, after a loss by 3 points or less are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +7.5 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on them, just as I did in their last game in their upset win at Miami as 18-point underdogs.  And now they are coming off a bye week, so they will be rested and ready to go while taking away a ton of confidence from that Miami victory. 

Georgia Tech has been more competitive than a 2-5 team.  They were only outgained by more than 49 yards twice, which came against Clemson and North Carolina.  They were only outgained by Temple by 18 yards in a misleading 2-24 road loss.  They actually outgained Duke by 6 yards in a misleading 23-41 road loss.  And they were only outgained by 12 yards by Miami, so there was nothing fluky about that 28-21 (OT) upset road win over the Hurricanes.  It’s safe to say first-year head coach Geoff Collins is doing a great job, and teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than most. 

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers have been impressive this season with a 5-3 record.  But they aren’t the type of team you want to be laying big points with.  In fact, each of Pitt’s last six games have all been decided by 7 points or less.  They only have one win by more than 7 points this year, and that was a lackluster 20-10 home win over Ohio.  What makes it tough to lay points with Pittsburgh is their weak offense, which is averaging just 21.0 points per game this season. 

Pitt and Georgia Tech have met six times since the Panthers joined the ACC.  The series is tied 3-3, but Pitt’s three wins have all come by 5 points or less.  That’s why getting 7.5 points here with the Yellow Jackets at home is such a tremendous value, especially since they are off a bye week and Pitt is coming off a physical, taxing 12-16 home loss to Miami. 

Pittsburgh is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 road games off a home loss.  The Panthers are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 road games off a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Yellow Jackets are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +17.5 

The is a great spot to fade the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  This is a team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  They expected to get back.  Now, after suffering their second loss of the season in a ugly 31-point loss at Michigan last week, their dreams of making the playoff have been crushed.  I think they suffer a hangover effect this week as a result. 

The Fighting Irish catch a Virginia Tech team coming off a bye and coming in with momentum.  Everyone left the Hokies for dead after a 35-point loss to Duke to fall to 2-2.  Since then, they’ve gone 3-0 with an upset road win over Miami and an upset home win over North Carolina.  I think it puts to rest any of the doubts that people had about head coach Justin Fuente. 

A big reason for the Hokies’ turnaround this season has been inserting QB Hendon Hooker into the lineup for that Miami game.  He has run away with the QB job ever since and has led the Hokies to an average of 39.7 points per game in his three starts.  Hooker has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt in those three wins and adds a running element, rushing for 156 yards and a score on 48 carries.  He has everyone on the team believing in him, which is key. 

Notre Dame just hasn’t been that impressive this season.  They were either outgained or only outgained five of their seven opponents by 47 or fewer yards.  The only exceptions were against terrible Bowling Green and New Mexico teams.  They only outgained USC by 47 and Virginia by 5 yards at home.  They only outgained Louisville by 31 yards on the road.  They were outgained at Georgia and outgained by 257 yards at Michigan. 

Plays against home teams (Notre Dame) - a good offensive team scoring 35 or more points per game, off a loss by 21 points or more are 68-32 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Justin Fuente is 10-2 ATS coming off a bye week in all games he has coached.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday. 

20* Navy/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on UConn +27.5 

Navy is coming off a massive 41-38 home win over Tulane last week to move to 6-1 and put themselves in a great position to play for an AAC title.  I think this is a big letdown spot for the Midshipmen, who will have a hard time getting up for UConn enough to win this game by four touchdowns or more, which is what it will take to cover this massive 27.5-point spread. 

Connecticut is vastly improved this season under Randy Edsall.  They were the youngest team in the country last year, and while still young, Randy Edsall has done a great job of developing his players and getting them to be much more competitive this year.  They are 2-6 SU but have covered each of their last two games in impressive fashion. 

Two weeks ago, UConn outgained Houston by 152 yards but lost 17-24 as 21-point home dogs.  It was one of the most misleading finals of the season as the Huskies should have won that game outright.  And last week they went on the road and blitzed UMass 56-35 as 9.5-point favorites and racked up 539 total yards in the win. 

Navy isn’t the type of team to rub the opponent’s noses in the dirt.  If they get up in this game, they aren’t going to keep trying to pour it on.  Plus, their triple-option offense isn’t built for covering big spreads like this. They are built for long, extended drives on the ground that keep the clock moving.  This is the biggest favorite role the Midshipmen have been in all season.  They were 21.5-point favorites against Holy Cross in their opener to compare.  I think the Midshipmen are being overvalued now due to their 6-1 record. 

UConn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 November home games.  The Huskies are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 games after three consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  Navy is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Huskies will be highly motivated for this nationally televised home game and a chance to pull a huge upset against a 6-1 Navy team.  We’ll get their best effort tonight.  Bet UConn Friday. 

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/App State UNDER 44.5 

Two teams who love to run the football and who both have good defenses square off Thursday in this Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.  The clock will be running constantly due to both teams running the football.  This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, especially since it will be windy (17 MPH-plus) with a good chance of rain during game time. 

Georgia Southern runs the triple-option.  The Eagles average 53 rushing attempts for 261 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  They only average 10 pass attempts per game.  They’ll be up against a very good Appalachian State defense that is allowing 19 points, 326.6 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  The Mountaineers are only giving up 13.5 points, 249.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their four conference games.  They also only give up 140 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season. 

Appalachian State has a decent offense, there’s no question about that.  They are good at running the football and also run it a lot, averaging 44 attempts for 249 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  But they have feasted on some bad run defenses this season.  Georgia Southern has a good defense, giving up 342 yards per game and 5.2 per play, holding opponents to 80 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.  The Eagles have been very good against the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in all five meetings, and 44 or less in three of them.  Georgia Southern has averaged just 15.8 points and 234.3 yards per game in their last four meetings with Appalachian State.  The Eagles did hold the Mountaineers to just 288 total yards last year and forced five turnovers in an upset victory. 

Georgia Southern is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in its last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Eagles last 17 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last six conference games. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 to 49 (Appalachian State) - after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after allowing 7 points or les sin the first half of two straight games are 25-4 (86.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +14.5 

This line is outrageous.  The Miami Dolphins cannot be catching more than two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they are perceived to be, and the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, so they just can’t be laying this big of a number. 

The Steelers are 2-4 this season with their two wins coming against the Bengals and Chargers, who are a combined 2-12.  And their win over the Chargers was very misleading as the Chargers basically gave them two touchdowns with turnovers.  The Steelers only gained 256 total yards on offense against the Chargers. 

And that’s my problem with the Steelers laying this big of a number.  Their offense is horrid.  They average just 20.5 points and 276.5 yards per game this season.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense this season.  With backup quarterbacks, they have gone to a dink and dunk passing game that will get figured out rather quickly.  They just aren’t going to be putting up points in a hurry. 

My mind was blown last week when it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to start against the Bills instead of Josh Rosen, and the line didn’t move at all.  Fitzpatrick is at least worth 3 to 4 points over Rosen, and he has proven that the last two weeks.  He entered late against the Redskins and led the Dolphins on two touchdown drives, nearly leading them to their first victory of the season in a 16-17 loss. 

Then last week, Fitzpatrick did everything in his power to beat the Bills as 17-point road underdogs.  The Dolphins probably deserved to win that game because they outgained the Bills by 76 yards.  Fitzpatrick threw for 282 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for a score.  The Bills got a 45-yard onside kick return TD for a score with 1:38 left to make it a misleading 31-21 final. 

I like the fight I saw in the Dolphins in that game.  They are rallying around Fitzpatrick and they clearly aren’t tanking contrary to popular belief.  I’ve seen a team hungry for a victory the last two weeks.  And that certainly won’t change on the bright lights of Monday Night Football.  This team would love nothing more than to get their first win of the season on the biggest stage to quiet their naysayers. 

Plays against home favorite of 10.5 or more points (Pittsburgh) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Pittsburgh is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Mike Tomlin is 5-14 ATS against teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game on the season as the coach of the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Bet the Dolphins Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +13 

I love several things about the Browns +13 over the Patriots this week.  First and foremost, the Browns are coming off their bye week, giving them a chance to regroup.  And the Patriots will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  The rest and preparation advantage clearly goes to the Browns in this one. 

The Patriots were -10.5 over the Browns on the lookahead line last week.  But after beating the Jets 33-0, the Patriots jumped up to -13 favorites.  Well, the Jets basically gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  They threw two touchdowns in the end zone and just nothing went their way as Sam Darnold famously said he was ’seeing ghosts’. 

The Browns come in highly motivated for a victory after two straight losses, including a blown 20-6 lead over the Seahawks to lose 28-32 going into the bye week.  The Browns also get a lost healthier this week as they get some key pieces back in the secondary in CB’s Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward from injury.  And Baker Mayfield got some much needed extra time to rest his banged up hip. 

I think the Browns are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 2-4 start.  The talent is just too good on this team to be 2-4.  They showed what they were capable of in their 40-25 road win over the Ravens as 7-point dogs a few weeks back.  Unfortunately, they haven’t always lived up to their potential because of turnovers.  They have already committed 14 turnovers in six games, including a combined 12 turnovers in their four losses.  There’s no question they are primed for a big effort off their bye week as long as they take care of the football. 

The Patriots are clearly overvalued right now after their 7-0 start to the season.  I say that because they have faced the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  Their schedule ranks 32nd in difficulty.  The Browns have faced the 13th-toughest schedule to compare.  Six of the Patriots seven wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-32 on the season.  The lone exception was the 16-10 win over the 5-1 Buffalo Bills, but that was a fluky result as the Bills outplayed them and should have won.  The Bills outgained them by 151 yards.  I believe Cleveland is by far the 2nd-best team the Patriots will have faced this season. 

The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Plays against favorites (New England) - a good offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game against a poor defensive team that allows 23 to 27 points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -1.5 

The Buffalo Bills are legit this season, yet they just rarely get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  And I definitely think they are getting overlooked as only 1.5-point home favorites here against the Eagles. 

This is the best Bills team the city has seen in probably decades.  They are 5-1 and nothing about what they have done this season is a fluke.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 70 yards per game this season.  They have outgained five of their six opponents. 

The only exception was actually last week in a flat performance against the Dolphins, yet they still won by 10 points.  And I think the fact that they didn’t cover that inflated 17-point spread is why we are getting them at a discount here.   

Nobody has played the Patriots tougher than the Bills.  They lost 10-16 to the Patriots, but gave up a special teams touchdown and outgained the Patriots by 151 yards.  Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career in that game.  He was 18-of-39 passing for 150 yards without a touchdown and an interception. 

Now this elite Bills defense will continue to terrorize Carson Wentz, who is probably seeing ghosts by now just like Sam Darnold.  The Eagles lost by 18 at the Vikings and followed it up with a miserable 27-point road loss to the Cowboys last week.  If they were going to show some fight, it would have been last week against the Cowboys.  I just think this team is broken right now. 

They have one of the worst secondary’s in the league.  And they just got rid of Orlando Scandrick, who called out the Eagles’ locker room for being content after winning the Super Bowl two years ago.  He said the hunger is gone, and it’s hard to argue. 

The Vikings and Cowboys proved you could run on the Eagles.  Those two teams averaged 156 rushing yards per game the last two weeks on this Eagles defense.  They have injuries on the offensive line and at the skill positions that are making things tough on Wentz and the offense. 

The Eagles are now 1-3 on the road this season and getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere in Buffalo this week as the fans couldn’t possibly be more excited about this team.  It is one of the most passionate fan bases in the NFL, even when they’re bad.  But when they’re good, their home-field advantage is massive. 

Plays on home favorites in non-conference games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

The Detroit Lions just can’t be favored by a touchdown over the Giants today.  They are 2-3-1 on the season with their two wins coming by a field goal each.  And they were aided by mistakes by the Chargers and injuries to the Eagles. 

Detroit’s defense has completely fallen apart.  The Lions are giving up 33.0 points and 462.7 yards per game in their last three games, which have all resulted in losses.  The injuries are mounting on defense as they will be without DT Mike Daniels and CB Darius Slay.  And they just traded away a team captain and one of the most liked players on the team in Quandre Diggs, and players voiced their frustrations over the move. 

The Giants should be able to shred this Lions defense as well.  Detroit just got back some key pieces from injury last week in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram.  And Golden Tate is back from suspension.  Their offense is about as healthy as it has been at any point this season, and Daniel Jones is primed for another big performance here. 

I liked what I saw from the Giants’ defense last week against a good Cardinals offense.  They held the Cardinals to just 245 total yards, including 89 passing.  They fell in a quick 17-0 hole early and were able to climb their way back with a chance to win thanks to the job the defense did.  They held the Cardinals to just 10 points over the final three quarters, and one of those was a field goal after the offense turned it over on downs deep in their own territory late. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering the spread in four of hitter last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 16-37 ATS in their last 53 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games.  They are getting too much respect here after covering four of their last five coming in, and they aren’t winning by margin. 

The Giants are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Look for New York to continue to be road warriors here and cover this inflated number.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

20* Washington State/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +14.5 

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a massive comeback road win over Washington last week.  The Ducks trailed that game by double-digits most the way before coming on strong in the second half to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.  I think they are now being overvalued off that huge win here laying more than two touchdowns to a good Washington State team.  It’s also a sandwich spot with a road game at USC on deck. 

Washington State put an end to a tough three-game losing streak with an emphatic 41-10 home win over Colorado last week.  They blew late leads against both UCLA and Arizona State or they’d be 6-1 this season. I think the fact that they are only 4-3 has them undervalued this week. 

Overlooking Washington State has been a regular occurrence every year for Oregon.  It’s clear that the Cougars get up for this game more than the Ducks do, and Mike Leach has them figured out.  Washington State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, covering the spread by a whopping 152 combined points in those nine meetings.  That’s an average cover of 16.9 points per game.  The Cougars have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Ducks and haven’t lost to them by more than 7 points in any of the last five meetings. 

Washington State is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 7-0 ATS when the total is 63.5 to 70 over the last three years.  Throw in the 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, and we have a combined 25-0 system backing the Cougars here.  Roll with Washington State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCLA +4 

We saw last season the UCLA Bruins improve greatly as the season went on in Year 1 under Chip Kelly.  And I think we will see the same thing in the second half this season as the Bruins try and chase down a bowl game after a slow start. 

The biggest reason for UCLA’s slow start is the schedule.  Their schedule ranks as the 6th-toughest in the country thus far.  A big reason for that is a brutal non-conference schedule that featured Cincinnati, San Diego State and Oklahoma.  They got off to a 1-5 start this season and had their stud QB in in Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting hurt. 

Thompson-Robinson missed part of the Arizona loss and the entire Oregon State loss, which explains that defeat.  But he returned against Stanford last week and led the Bruins to an impressive 34-16 road victory as 4-point dogs to the Cardinal.  Now, UCLA has two winnable home games in a row coming up against ASU and Colorado, and if they can win those two games they’d get to 4-5 and in great shape for a bowl game.  That is clearly the goal here. 

I think Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Sun Devils are ranked No. 24 in the country and off to a 5-2 start this season.  But they had a fluky win at Michigan State where they were outgained by 188 yards, they were upset by Colorado at home, they needed a last-second TD to beat Washington State at home, and they only beat Cal by 7 and Sacramento State by 12 as 35.5-point favorites.  They are fortunate to be 5-2 to say the least. 

Arizona State’s true colors showed last week in a 3-21 road loss to Utah where they managed just 136 yards of total offense.  And it’s that dreadful offense that makes it hard for ASU to be laying points on the road here to UCLA, which has the better offense in this matchup, especially with a healthy DTR at QB.  Arizona Stae is averaging just 22.1 points and 365 yards per game this season, including 12.3 points and 239 yards per game in their three road games. 

The Sun Devils are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after having won five or six of their last seven games coming in.  The Bruins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.  UCLA is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight home meetings.  Take UCLA Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +10.5 

The Missouri Tigers are notorious for beating up on bad teams and losing when they step up in class.  But they even lost to a bad team last week, falling 14-21 as 21.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt.  And there’s no way they should be laying double-digits on the road here against Kentucky. 

I was very impressed with how well Kentucky played last week in a 21-0 loss at Georgia.  They were only outgained by 99 yards by the Bulldogs.  Three of Kentucky’s four losses have come on the road this season.  They are 3-1 at home and should be 4-0 as they missed a chip shot field goal that would have likely given them the upset win over Florida.  Instead, the Gators scored on the next play from scrimmage to win 29-21.  If they can play Florida that tough at home, they certainly will have a chance to pull off the upset here against Missouri. 

The weather is going to help the Wildcats, too.  There is a 100% chance of precipitation.  Kentucky wants to run the ball anyway with WR turned QB Lynn Bowden Jr.  He rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week he rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Georgia’s vaunted defense. 

Missouri has faced the 77th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  Kentucky has faced the 20th-toughest schedule according to Sagarin, a difference of 57 spots.  So I think the Tigers are overrated and that showed last week in their upset loss at Vanderbilt.  And Kentucky is underrated due to the difficulty of their schedule thus far. 

Kentucky has Missouri’s number.  The Wildcats are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They pulled two outright upsets as more than a touchdown underdogs.  I’m not so sure Missouri should even be favored in this game, let alone a double-digit favorite.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Roll with Kentucky Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Missouri/Kentucky UNDER 45 

Forecasts are calling for 100% chance of precipitation in Lexington for this game between Kentucky and Missouri.  As a result, I’ll back the UNDER in what will be a low-scoring game due to the poor weather, and the resulting game plans by both teams to almost exclusively run the football. 

Kentucky wants to run the ball anyway with WR turned QB Lynn Bowden Jr.  He rushed for 196 yards and two touchdowns against Arkansas two weeks ago.  And last week he rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Georgia’s vaunted defense.  Since Bowden Jr. took over at QB, the Wildcats have only passed the ball 28 times in two games, or an average of 14 attempts per game. 

Missouri likes to run the football anyway, too.  They average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to 32 passing attempts per game.  Since both teams are going to be keeping the ball on the ground probably 75% to 80% of the time in this game due to weather, that’s going to keep the clock moving and benefit this UNDER greatly. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kentucky’s last four games overall with combined scores of 41, 31, 44 and 21 points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Missouri’s last six games overall as they have a worse offense and a better defense than most were expecting coming into the season.  These teams combined for just 29 points in their meeting last season, and a similar result can be expected here due to the weather. 

Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Kentucky’s last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +6.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Penn State Nittany Lions.  We cashed with Michigan +9 over Penn State last week.  And we’re fading them again this week for many of the season reasons.  I believe the Nittany Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the country and you’re paying a heavy price to back them now, so it’s time to ’sell high’. 

It’s a tough spot for the Nittany Lions.  They are coming off two huge night game victories on the road at Iowa and at home over Michigan.  I question how much they have left in the tank.  Now they face a rested, hungry Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week. 

Everyone has left the Spartans for dead after back-to-back blowout road losses at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, and now it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them.  They lost by 24 at Ohio State and 38-0 at Wisconsin.  It was a 17-0 game at Wisconsin entering the 4th quarter, and they simply ran out of gas and gave up 21 points in the final period. 

But now the Spartans are refreshed with two weeks off and back home.  The Spartans are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss a fluky 7-10 loss to Arizona State.  They outgained ASU by 188 yards in that game.  They are outscoring opponents by 15.3 points and outgaining them by 182 yards per game at home this year. 

Michigan State has outgained five of its seven opponents this season.  Penn State has actually been outgained by 4 of their 7 opponents, which isn’t the sign of a 7-0 team.  They were outgained by Pitt, Buffalo & Michigan at home, and they were also outgained at Iowa.  They have only had to play two true road games all season, and one of those was at Maryland, which was essentially a home game for them. 

Michigan State owns Penn State, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Nittany Lions.  The Spartans won outright as 13.5 & 9.5-point underdogs the last two years.  And I fully expect them to win this game outright and hand the fraudulent Nittany Lions their first loss of the season.  Make sure to sprinkle some on the money line, but we’ll take the +6.5 points for some insurance. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Michigan State) - off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference opponents, in weeks 5 through 9 are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Michigan State Saturday. 

15* Auburn/LSU CBS No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5 

LSU has the best offense in school history this season.  There’s no denying that.  But they will finally get some resistance against the best defense they have faced all season.  And as a result, I think this total of 59.5 between Auburn and LSU has been inflated here Saturday too much due to LSU’s offensive numbers up to this point. 

Auburn’s defense gives up 17.1 points, 319 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 12.9 points, 93 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play less than their season averages. This is an elite Auburn defense that might have the best defensive line in the country. 

LSU’s defense isn’t too shabby, either.  The Tigers give up 20.0 points, 319 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play which is very similar to Auburn’s numbers.  And the key here is that Auburn isn’t going to be able to match LSU score for score because freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t played well on the big stage. 

In Auburn’s three games against Oregon, Texas A&M & Florida, Nix has gone a combined 37-of-80 (46.2%) passing for 428 yards for an average of just 142.7 passing yards per game.  Auburn’s only hope of keeping this game close is to run the ball and control the clock, which I think they will try and do, and that is going to favor the UNDER. 

This has been an UNDER series.  In fact, 52 of the last 53 meetings in this series have seen 59 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 52-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.