|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-24-12||Texas Tech +3 v. Baylor||45-52||Loss||-120||89 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +3
This is a huge letdown spot for Baylor after such a big win over Kansas State. It
|11-24-12||Michigan v. Ohio State -3.5||21-26||Win||100||86 h 23 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Ohio State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes have incredibly managed to stay focused throughout the season despite knowing they have to serve a postseason ban. First-year head coach Urban Meyer has done an excellent job with these players, and there
|11-24-12||Rutgers v. Pittsburgh -2||6-27||Win||100||86 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh -2
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have absolutely nothing to play for Saturday. They are in a two-way battle with Louisville for 1st place in the Big East. Well, they could lose this game against Pitt and beat Louisville next week to win the conference.
Even if Rutgers wins this game against Pitt, it would still need to beat Louisville next week to win the Big East provided the Cardinals beat UConn this week, which is almost a foregone conclusion. There's no question that these Rutgers players know that this is a meaningless game against Pitt.
Meanwhile, the Panthers still need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible, so it certainly means something to them. Plus, it would make their season to knock off the top team in the Big East this Saturday.
Pittsburgh will come in more prepared mentally and physically to win Saturday. Aside from the fact that Rutgers has nothing to play for, Pitt will be coming off its bye week. That means it will have two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.
This is Senior Day for the Panthers, and these players would love nothing more than to send senior quarterback Tino Sunseri out with a victory. Sunseri has completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions - none in 202 attempts over his last seven games.
Pittsburgh is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 13.8 points/game. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Pitt is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-23-12||LSU v. Arkansas +12.5||20-13||Win||100||65 h 53 m||Show|
15* LSU/Arkansas CBS Friday No-Brainer on Arkansas +12.5
The LSU Tigers don
|11-23-12||Nebraska v. Iowa +15||Top||13-7||Win||100||62 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +15
The Iowa Hawkeyes should not be more than a two touchdown underdog at home to the Nebraska Cornhuskers Friday. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Huskers aren't about to walk into it and crush the Hawkeyes.
Since Iowa is 4-7 on the season, it will not be going to a bowl game. On Senior Day, and with the motivation of trying to spoil Nebraska's season, the Hawkeyes are sure to give it everything they have. They will treat this contest like their bowl game since it will be the final time they take the field this season.
Nebraska is one of the most overrated teams in the entire country. It is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate. The Huskers have gotten away with murder several times this season, squeaking out wins in the closing seconds in victories over Wisconsin (30-27), Northwestern (29-28), Michigan State (28-24) and Penn State (32-23). This team has simply caught all the breaks this season.
Iowa is 16-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 5.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 19-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 10.5 points per game.
The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992. Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Nebraska is 25-51-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-22-12||TCU +7 v. Texas||20-13||Win||100||50 h 60 m||Show|
15* TCU/Texas ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on TCU +7
The Horned Frogs clearly have the better defense in this one, which gives them a chance to keep it close. They are giving up 24.0 points per game this season while ranking 16th in the country in total defense at 326.3 yards per game. It is giving up a solid 374.3 yards per game in conference play, which is saying something in a league comprised of the best offenses in the country.
Texas is yielding 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 85th in the country in total defense at 429.6 yards per game. It has been horrible on this side of the ball in Big 12 play, giving up 34.7 points and 473.0 total yards per game. TCU is averaging 29.7 points and 427.1 total yards per game in conference play, so it should be able to move the ball and score points without a problem Thursday
TCU has played its best football on the road this season. It is 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring opponents 29.2 to 23.4, or by an average of 5.8 points per game. It has road wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and SMU with its only loss coming at Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with TCU Thursday.
|11-22-12||Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3||Top||38-31||Loss||-115||73 h 51 m||Show|
25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -3
The Cowboys are back into the NFC East race after their win over the Cleveland Browns last week. They now trail the New York Giants by just one game for the top spot in this division. When you look at the numbers, you could argue that Dallas is one of the top teams in the league, rather than one that is .500.
Dallas ranks 11th in the league in total offense at 367.4 yards per game and 7th in total defense at 318.0 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 49.4 yards per game, which is one of the better margins in the NFL. It is a sign that this team is better than its 5-5 record would indicate.
While Washington does have a good offense, it hasn
|11-22-12||Houston Texans -3 v. Detroit Lions||34-31||Push||0||68 h 23 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3
The Texans have been one of the top teams in the league this season. They have looked as impressive as anyone en route to their 9-1 start. Getting them as only a field goal favorite against anyone is certainly worth a look.
The Lions had a chance to get back in the playoff hunt if they were to beat the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. Instead, they gave the game away, blowing a 20-14 lead late to fall to 4-6 on the season. They now realize their playoff hopes are slim to none, and they are likely to suffer a hangover from that defeat.
Houston struggled with Jacksonville last week, needing overtime to dismantle the Jaguars 43-37. It was probably taking them too lightly and it likely wasn
|11-20-12||Akron +19.5 v. Toledo||23-35||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* Akron/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Akron +19.5
The Toledo Rockets likely won't even show up tonight. They were eliminated from the MAC title race with a 24-31 loss at Northern Illinois last Wednesday. With nothing to play for tonight, they won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this huge number against Akron.
The Zips want to end their season on a positive note since they will not be going to a bowl game. They have played some very good teams tough this season. They lost at Tennessee 26-47 as a 32-point underdog. They also lost at Ohio 28-34 as an 18-point dog, and at Kent State 24-35 as an 18.5-point dog.
Under first-year head coach Terry Bowden, the Zips have implemented a high-octane passing attack. They rank 14th in the country in passing offense (317.1 yards/game) and should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Toledo defense that ranks 116th against the pass (298.8 yards/game).
Akron comes in the more rested team as it last played on November 10th against UMass. Toledo comes in on just five days' rest after playing on Wednesday, November 14th against Northern Illinois. That extra rest and preparation should make a big difference in this one.
Toledo is 13-27 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Take Akron Tuesday.
|11-19-12||Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 36.5||Top||7-32||Loss||-110||14 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bears/49ers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 36.5
The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears feature two of the best defenses in the league. They will play part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in San Francisco on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
The 49ers rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense at 14.1 points/game. They are also No. 2 in total defense at 292.1 yards/game.
The Bears rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense at 14.8 points/game, just behind the 49ers. They are also No. 5 in total defense at 306.7 yards/game.
Chicago ranks just No. 26 in total offense at 316.0 yards/game. They were already going to have trouble moving the ball and scoring points on the 49ers even if Jay Cutler was healthy. Now, with Cutler out and Jason Campbell in, the Bears' offense will be lucky to reach double-digits in points.
The 49ers had been doing pretty well offensively at No. 12 in the league at 365.7 yards/game. That all changes tonight as they will also be without their starting quarterback, Alex Smith. With Colin Kaepernick under center, they will be much more conservative and looking to run the football even more.
The 49ers are 16-4 to the UNDER against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-8 in Bears last 27 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
PS - I put this total in before the news that Alex Smith would be out. Obviously, I like the UNDER even more with him out, and I like it down to 34.
|11-18-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4||13-10||Win||100||49 h 11 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +4
The Steelers have been a resilient team with injuries all season. They have been without arguably their two best defensive players in Troy Polamalu and James Harrison for more than half the season, yet they
|11-18-12||Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||19-23||Win||100||92 h 59 m||Show|
20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +10
The Cardinals are coming off their bye week, which couldn
|11-18-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 v. Houston Texans||37-43||Win||100||42 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5
Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been incredible against the spread over the last several years. Oddsmakers have to set these spreads extra high to get even action on both sides in games featuring one team with one of the worst records in the NFL, and one with the best.
That provides "sharp bettors" such as myself a chance to back the undervalued underdog at a number that is better than it should be. Houston is not more than two touchdowns better than Jacksonville in this one, and I fully expect the Jaguars to take this one right down to the wire because of several different factors.
First, the Jaguars have played their best football on the road. That makes sense because they cannot be too excited to play at home when there are so many empty seats in the stands. Jacksonville is 1-3 SU but 3-0-1 ATS in road games this season. It won at Indianapolis 22-17, and it's three losses have come against the Vikings (23-26), Raiders (23-26) and Packers (15-24). As you can see, it stay within 9 points in all three of its road losses.
Houston finds itself in a letdown spot after a big win at Chicago on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Jacksonville team that it already beat 27-7 on the road in the first meeting. The Texans will come into this game feeling like they just have to show up to win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be looking at this game like it's their Super Bowl.
This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
The Texan are 1-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Jaguars are 15-5 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-17-12||Utah State -3 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||48-41||Win||100||65 h 23 m||Show|
25* WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State -3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. As a result, they continue going under the radar and killing the books at the pay window for people who are willing to back them. I am one of those people, and I will do so again Saturday.
Utah State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points. It missed a last second-field goal at Wisconsin, and it lost by only a field goal at BYU. This team has won by 7 points or more in all eight of its victories, including six wins by 22 points or more.
Louisiana Tech is obviously a quality team at 9-1, but it has played a much softer schedule than Utah State. Its lone loss came to Texas A&M at home, and its nine wins have come against Houston (4-6), Rice (4-6), Illinois (2-8), Virginia (4-7), UNLV (2-9), Idaho (1-9), New Mexico State (1-9), UTSA (6-4) and Texas State (3-6).
As you can see, only one of their nine wins have come against a team with a winning record, and those teams have combined for a 27-66 record. I would have to say that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as their record, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Utah State is a complete team. It ranks 25th in the country in total offense (463.2 yards/game), including 40th in rushing (187.1 yards/game) and 33rd in passing (275.9 yards/game). It ranks 12th in total defense (303.3 yards/game), including 5th against the run (94.6 yards/game) and 37th against the pass (208.7 yards/game).
Unlike the Aggies, the Bulldogs have some weaknesses, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which will be the difference in this game. Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in total defense (505.7 yards/game), including 117th against the pass (337.8 yards/game). Utah State will get more stops than Louisiana Tech in this one.
Utah State is 9-0 ATS in all games this season. Once again, it is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as only a 3-point favorite against a much inferior Louisiana Tech team. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-17-12||North Carolina State +17 v. Clemson||48-62||Win||100||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on NC State +17
First and foremost, the NC State Wolfpack have the talent to stay with Clemson Saturday aside from any outside motivational factors. They proved that last season while knocking Clemson out of the Top 10 with a 37-13 victory over the Tigers.
Aside from the fact that NC State has the talent to hang with Clemson, a big reason I'm taking the Wolfpack is because this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers. Florida State, a 31-point favorite over Maryland Saturday, would win the ACC Atlantic division with a win. A loss would send Clemson to the ACC title game if the Tigers beat the Wolfpack.
That FSU/Maryland game kicks off at 12:00 EST, and it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Seminoles are going to win against a Terrapins team playing with their 5th string QB. The Clemson/NC State game kicks off at 3:30 EST, and these Tigers players will surely get wind of the fact that FSU beat Maryland before kickoff.
With the realization that they won't be playing in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand with little to play for. Remember, this is an NC State team that handed Florida State its only loss of the season, so it has proven it can win big games.
Mike Glennon threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in last season's 37-13 win. Glennon is having another solid season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,910 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be able to keep the Wolfpack in this game with his ability to move the ball through the air.
NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 16.0 points/game. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Clemson. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet NC State Saturday.
|11-17-12||Wake Forest +24 v. Notre Dame||0-38||Loss||-110||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* Wake Forest/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Wake Forest +24
While the Fighting Irish are 10-0 this season, they haven
|11-17-12||USC -3 v. UCLA||28-38||Loss||-115||64 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -3
The Trojans are the most talented three-loss team in the entire country. They gave Oregon by far their toughest game so far with a 62-51 home loss to the Ducks. Their other two losses came to Stanford and Arizona on the road by a combined 10 points.
|11-17-12||Kent State v. Bowling Green -2.5||31-24||Loss||-107||61 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -2.5
The Bowling Green Falcons and Kent State Golden Flashes have both had amazing seasons to this point with little expected out of them coming into the year. It's unfortunate that somebody has to lose this game, but at the same time it's amazing that the winner will have the inside track to the MAC East division title, which means a trip to the MAC Championship.
While I have a bunch of respect for both teams, I have no question that the right play is to back Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown. Kent State is at least getting some love from oddsmakers because of their win over Rutgers earlier this season, but Bowling Green continues to get no respect.
Remember, the Falcons are the team that took Florida right down to the wire in their opener. This was a 17-14 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Gators scored 10 unanswered points int he final period to win 27-14. Their other two losses came on the road against very good Virginia Tech and Toledo teams.
Bowling Green is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 32.5 to 9.0, or by an average of 23.5 points/game. The biggest reason the Falcons are going to win this game is because of their defense, which ranks 6th in the country allowing just 285.4 yards/game.
More specifically, the Falcons have a huge edge in the ground game, which is where this contest will be won. Bowling Green ranks 14th in the country against the run (103.7 yards/game, 3.3/carry), so it will be able to limit a Kent State rushing attack that ranks 15th at 235.7 yards/game.
Kent State does not move the ball through the air very well, ranking just 111th in passing offense (166.7 yards/game). So, when Bowling Green shuts down their running game, the Golden Flashes will have nowhere to turn. Also, Kent State ranks just 77th in total defense (414.2 yards/game).
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Bowling Green is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|11-16-12||Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -1.5||Top||34-24||Loss||-110||47 h 55 m||Show|
20* FIU/FAU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -1.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have gone under the radar all season. They have been an absolute money-making machine at the pay window because of it, covering eight straight against the spread. As only a 1-point home favorite here, they could easily earn their ninth straight cover.
|11-15-12||Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46||Top||14-19||Win||100||24 h 35 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Bills AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 46
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this Thursday night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. These are two desperate teams in need of a victory to get back in the playoff hunt in the AFC, and I look for it to be a defensive battle partly because of it.
Another reason I believe this will be a low-scoring affair is that fact that these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Miami is scoring just 19.2 points/game while ranking 25th in total offense (323.9 yards/game).
Buffalo's offensive numbers are a bit inflated because of two games against the Patriots, who it always seems to play in high-scoring games with. It scored 28 points and gained 438 total yards in the 1st meeting, and it scored 31 points while gaining 481 total yards in the second. The Bills still rank just 14th in total offense (359.1 yards/game) despite those two explosions against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
These teams have combined for 45 or less points in four of the last five meetings, which would make for an 80% system pertaining to tonight's total set of 46. Dating back further, nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 45 or fewer points.
Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 6-0 to the UNDER in November games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-15-12||North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5||37-13||Loss||-110||23 h 40 m||Show|
15* UNC/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +3.5
While the Cavaliers are just 4-6 on the season, there
|11-14-12||Toledo +11 v. Northern Illinois||Top||24-31||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11
The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.
The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.
This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Ohio +7 v. Ball State||27-52||Loss||-115||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7
The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.
Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.
Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn
|11-12-12||Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers||Top||13-16||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City +13.5
If the Chiefs would just take care of the football, they would be a really good team. At some point, they will quit giving the ball away, thus giving games away. This is certainly better than a 1-7 team when you look at the numbers outside of turnovers.
Kansas City ranks 16th in the league in total offense at 358.0 yards per game, and 16th in total defense at 347.5 yards per game allowed. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 yards per game. That is a number more indicative of a team that is 4-4 or better rather than one that is 1-7.
Pittsburgh has tended to play down to its competition at times this season. Remember, this is a team that has losses to the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, which is about as bad as it gets. The Steelers were a 10.5-point favorite last season against the Chiefs and only won by a final of 13-9.
The Steelers are expected to be without arguably their top playmakers offensively in wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle). He is listed as doubtful, which will certainly take the Steelers
|11-11-12||Houston Texans +1.5 v. Chicago Bears||Top||13-6||Win||100||67 h 26 m||Show|
20* Texans/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5
The Houston Texans are the superior team in this game against Chicago and it will show on the field Sunday Night. The Texans were my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and they have not disappointed. I did expect the Bears to make the playoffs, but not to be off to this good of a start.
Chicago's 7-1 start is a bit fluky given all of the defensive touchdowns they have come up with. They can't possibly keep this pace up on defense, and they have been forcing turnovers against a pretty soft schedule in the first half. Six of the eight teams the Bears have faced are .500 or worse on the season, and five of those teams have losing records.
Houston won't be giving the Bears any gifts like these other teams have. It has only turned the ball over six times all season. This is the most complete team in the league as it ranks in the Top 10 of turnover differential, yards per play differential, and sack percentage. There are just no weaknesses on their entire team.
Chicago's biggest weakness is an offense that isn't nearly explosive as it was supposed to be coming into the season. It ranks just 25th in total offense (324.4 yards/game), including 27th in passing offense (196.8 yards/game). Houston ranks 12th in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 3rd in total defense (286.1 yards/game).
The Texans are a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 15.4 points/game in this spot. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by 12.2 points/game in this situation.
Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 November games. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing the Texans. Bet Houston Sunday.
|11-11-12||NY Jets +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||7-28||Loss||-110||63 h 0 m||Show|
15* Jets/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5
The Jets are coming off their bye week and it could not have come at a better them. Their bye will give them a chance to recover and refocus from two straight AFC East losses to the Patriots and Dolphins. This extra week of rest will make the flight from the East coast to the West a lot easier, and is shouldn
|11-11-12||Detroit Lions -1 v. Minnesota Vikings||24-34||Loss||-120||60 h 56 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions are rolling right now, playing their best football of the season coming into this one. They have won back-to-back games over the Seahawks and Jaguars while scoring a combined 59 points in the process. Now, Detroit wants revenge from a 13-20 loss to Minnesota earlier this season.
That loss was a complete fluke as the Lions dominated the game, but the special teams lost it for them. They outgained the Vikings 341-227 for the game, but gave up two special teams touchdowns. One came on a 100-yard kickoff return by Percy Harvin, who is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. He is the Vikings best weapon and will certainly be missed.
I've been saying all year that Detroit is a better team than its record indicates, and it's certainly starting to show. The Lions rank 2nd in the league in total offense (410.9 yards/game) and 7th in total defense (320.6 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 90.3 yards/game this season. Minnesota is actually getting outgained on the season despite its 5-4 record.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Detroit is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a ATS win. The Lions are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. I'll back the better team playing the better football right now against a Minnesota team likely playing without arguably its best player. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-11-12||San Diego Chargers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||24-34||Loss||-100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Chargers +3
The San Diego Chargers should not be catching points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. Tampa Bay is getting way too much credit for its back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Raiders. That win over Minnesota was its only win against a team with a winning record this season, and I would be willing to lay a large bet that the Vikings don't finish with a winning record.
San Diego comes in on three extra days' rest after playing last Thursday in a 31-13 home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego is a better team than its 4-4 record would indicate, and its defense will be the reason it goes into Tampa Bay and comes away with a victory Sunday.
The Chargers rank 9th in the league in total defense (322.4 yards/game), including 4th against the run (84.0 yards/game). Its ability to stop the run is huge considering the Bucs rely on Doug Martin and their rushing attack so much.
Tampa Bay's defense is the reason it will lose this game. The Bucs rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense (398.4 yards/game), including dead last against the pass (321.1 yards/game). Philip Rivers is going to have a huge day against this soft Bucs' secondary.
The Buccaneers are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. San Diego is 15-5 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-11-12||Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3||27-31||Win||100||60 h 55 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South No-Brainer on New Orleans +3
While the Saints are just 3-5 this season, there
|11-10-12||Utah v. Washington Huskies +1.5||15-34||Win||100||74 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +1.5
The Utah Utes have no business being a road favorite at Washington Saturday. Oddsmakers have really missed their mark on this one folks, and we'll take advantage. I fully expect the Huskies to become bowl eligible with a victory on Senior Night as this will be their final home game.
Utah is getting way too much respect for its last two wins over Washington State and California. Both of those victories came at home against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12. You can't forget that the Utes had lost four straight before those two wins over cupcake opponents.
Utah is 0-4 on the road this season, scoring just 12.0 points/game and allowing 26.5 points/game, getting outscored by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Once again, the Utes have no business being favored given how poorly they've played away from home.
What's even more mind-boggling is the fact that Washington is 4-1 at home this season, yet it's a dog here. The Huskies have impressive home wins over then-No. 8 Stanford and then-No. 7 Oregon State this year, so it's not like they're beating up on cupcakes. Their lone home loss came against then-No. 11 USC.
The Huskies won at Utah 31-14 last year as a 10-point underdog. They dominated this game, outgaining the Utes 411-322 while forcing five turnovers. Keith Price completed 22 of 30 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Get ready for another big game from Price this weekend.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring teams by 13.2 points/game in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Saturday.
|11-10-12||Mississippi State +14.5 v. LSU||Top||17-37||Loss||-105||71 h 32 m||Show|
25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +14.5
This is easily the best team that Dan Mullen has fielded since coming to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs did lose badly to Alabama and Texas A&M in their last two games, but that has them battle-tested heading into this showdown against a team similarly talented.
LSU is in a huge letdown spot after losing to No. 1 Alabama in the final seconds last Saturday. It will have a very hard time getting up to play Mississippi State after such a crushing defeat. That loss means that the Tigers aren
|11-10-12||Georgia -15.5 v. Auburn||38-0||Win||100||71 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Auburn ESPN 2 Line Mistake on Georgia -15.5
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won
|11-10-12||Penn State +7.5 v. Nebraska||23-32||Loss||-113||67 h 2 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Nebraska ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Penn State +7.5
The postseason ban hasn
|11-10-12||Navy v. Troy||31-41||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy PK
Navy is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It has won five straight games coming in with road victories over Air Force, Central Michigan and East Carolina, along with home wins over Indiana and Navy.
Its recent success is directly related to a change at the quarterback position. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game and led the Midshipmen to a comeback victory in the second half. He hasn't missed a beat since.
Reynolds has rushed for 405 yards and six touchdowns. However, it's his throwing ability that has made this offense so much more explosive. Reynolds is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 560 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He forces opposing defenses to respect the pass, which makes this triple-option attack so much scarier.
Troy had a chance to pull off a huge upset at Tennessee last week. It blew the game down the stretch, allowing the Vols to score two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 55-48 victory. After such a crushing defeat, it will be hard for the Trojans to bounce back mentally and get ready for this powerful triple-option attack that's coming their way.
Navy crushed Try 42-14 at home in last season's meeting. It rushed for 390 yards while compiling 517 total yards in the win. It also held the Trojans to just 330 total yards while forcing two turnovers defensively. I expect a similar blowout this Saturday as the Midshipmen run wild on the Trojans once again.
The Midshipmen are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games overall. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-10-12||Arizona State +9.5 v. USC||17-38||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona State +9.5
The USC Trojans are in a huge letdown spot here. They'd have their hands full with Arizona State regardless, but given the situation I can see them losing this one outright. The Sun Devils are better than they get credit for and will give the Trojans a run for their money here.
USC's biggest game of the year took place last Saturday in a 51-62 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. It had a chance to salvage its season with a win in that game, but that hope is long gone now. USC came into the season with national title hopes, and now it has little to play for the rest of the way having already suffered three losses.
Arizona State is highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses to three really good teams in Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Its last two losses have come in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 12 points to the Bruins and Beavers. This team will respond better than USC will this week given the situation.
The Sun Devils have played some of their best football on the road this season. They are 2-1 away from home with road wins over California and Colorado by a combined 44 points. Their lone loss on the road came at Missouri by a final of 20-24.
Arizona State didn't have all that great of a team last season, yet it beat USC 43-22 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. It also took the Trojans down to the wire on the road in 2010, losing by a final of 33-34 as a 6-point underdog.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Sun Devils are a very good team. They rank 31st in the country in total offense (457.8 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (333.3 yards/game). As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 124.5 yards/game.
USC is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Arizona State Saturday.
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||64 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +7
The Indiana Hoosiers have been under the radar all season. What's amazing is that this basketball school is actually starting to become a legitimate football program, but public bettors fail to realize it yet. As a result, they are showing great value as a touchdown underdog at home to Wisconsin once again Saturday.
Indiana is just 4-5 this season, but it could easily be 8-1. It has four losses by 4 points or less. They are 39-41 to Ball State, 27-32 to Michigan State, 49-52 to Ohio State and 30-31 to Navy.
This team has bounced back nicely from five straight losses with two solid wins over Illinois and Iowa. Now, Indiana controls its destiny in representing the Leaders division in the Big Ten title game. Both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible, so the Hoosiers are just one game behind Wisconsin. A win Saturday would move them into first place due to the tiebreaker.
Wisconsin is certainly down this season, yet it isn't getting treated like it. It has fortunate close wins over North Iowa, Utah State and UTEP. Its only Big Ten wins have come against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, three teams with a combined 1-14 record in Big Ten play. The Badgers are overrated and will meet their match this weekend.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|11-09-12||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Pitt/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Connecticut +3.5
The Panthers could be in a huge letdown spot here. They have to be deflated after their triple overtime loss to the Fighting Irish last Saturday, which was their chance to salvage a poor season. I foresee them showing up mentally to play this game Friday after such a tough defeat.
Connecticut has been better than its 3-6 record would indicate. It is actually outgaining opponents by 28 yards per game this season, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 on the year. It remains competitive thanks to a stop unit gives up just 18.6 points per game, and one that ranks 9th in the country in total defense at 290.2 yards per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 331 total yards per game. It will have a hard time moving the football on this stingy Huskies
|11-08-12||Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5||27-10||Loss||-100||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Colts/Jaguars NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +3.5
The betting public is all over the Colts this week. Not too many public bettors are going to want to put their money down on Jacksonville with how poorly they
|11-08-12||Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14.5||Top||28-22||Win||100||45 h 2 m||Show|
25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +14.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are way undervalued heading into this contest with the Florida State Seminoles. Lane Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in the country, and FSU isn't just going to walk into it and dominate the Hokies in this one.
This is Virginia Tech's national championship after a 4-5 start to the season. This team has had several bad breaks throughout the year, and I have no doubt that it is a much better squad than its record would indicate. Now is their chance to prove it on National TV against a Top 10 opponent.
Virginia Tech is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 35.0 to 11.0, or by an average of 24.0 points per game. Florida State is just 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents 26.3 to 18.0, or by an average of 8.3 points per game. Both of its road wins came by 13 points to South Florida and Miami, and it lost to NC State. I believe Virginia Tech is a stronger team than all three of those squads.
The home team has dominated this series through the years. The host has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the Seminoles and Hokies. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The Hokies are 15-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. The Seminoles are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. FSU is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November. Virginia Tech is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hokies are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.
|11-08-12||Louisiana Monroe +7 v. Arkansas State||23-45||Loss||-115||74 h 58 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +7
The Warhawks had won five straight before falling at home to Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday. That loss is just an aberration, and they are undervalued coming in because of it. They are still tied atop the Sun Belt standings and there
|11-07-12||Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5||Top||26-14||Loss||-110||22 h 33 m||Show|
20* Bowling Green/Ohio MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -2.5
If Ohio wants a shot to redeem itself from last year's loss in the MAC title game, this is a must-win for the Bobcats. They are tied with Bowling Green for second place in the East Division at 4-1 and will eventually get a shot against Kent State (5-0) in the season finale.
I still believe the Bobcats are the best team in this division. They were the favorite to win the MAC coming into 2012, and one 3-point loss at Miami (Ohio) does not change my opinion on them. This is still an 8-1 team that is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points/game.
Ohio is 5-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 42.4 to 21.4 on the year. It has the better offense in this one which will be the difference in the game. Ohio ranks 28th in the country in total offense (462.2 yards/game), while Bowling Green ranks just 77th in total offense (383.4 yards/game).
Sure, the Falcons have a solid defense this season, but the Bobcats' stop unit isn't too shabby either. Bowling Green is just 2-3 on the road this season as all three of its losses have come away from home. It is scoring a mere 15.4 points/game on the road this year.
Bowling Green is getting way too much respect right now for its five-game winning streak coming in. That winning streak is an absolute joke as they five teams the Falcons have played were Rhode Island, Akron, Miami (Ohio), UMass and Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 10-1 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio Wednesday.
|11-06-12||Ball State +7 v. Toledo||Top||34-27||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ball State +7
The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Toledo Rockets and they
|11-05-12||Philadelphia Eagles v. New Orleans Saints OVER 52||Top||13-28||Loss||-110||127 h 51 m||Show|
25* Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Saints OVER 52
This game has shootout written all over it. We have two of the most explosive offenses in the league going at it inside at dome down in New Orleans. I expect a lot of touchdowns and few defensive stops in this one.
New Orleans is scoring 27.1 points/game overall and 29.0 points/game at home. It ranks 5th in the league in total offense (388.6 yards/game), including 1st in passing offense (316.0 yards/game). Brees will be able to pick apart a Philly defense that underwent a coordinator change last week, and it didn't help. The Eagles allowed 30 points to the Falcons in a 30-17 home loss.
Philly ranks as solid 13th in the league in total offense (363.6 yards/game). It is in line for its best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up 30.9 points/game this season while ranking 32nd in total defense (475.4 yards/game).
Each of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 51 or more combined points. They combined for 70 points in a 48-22 Saints' victory in their most recent meeting in 2009. They always tend to play in high-scoring games when they get together, and they should easily eclipse this 52-point total early into the 4th quarter.
The OVER is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 10-1 in Saints last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-04-12||Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||13-19||Loss||-115||99 h 41 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Falcons NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +4.5
Dallas is a much better team than its 3-4 record would indicate. One look at the numbers and you can tell that, but the fact of the matter is that this team keeps beating itself. If the Cowboys ever quit beating themselves, they are going to be a very scary team in the second half. They committed six turnovers against the Giants last week and still had a chance to win at the end.
The Cowboys rank 7th in the league in total offense at 383.3 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 292.4 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by roughly 91 yards per game on the season, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 5-2 or better rather than one that is 3-4.
To compare, the Falcons are only outgaining opponents by a mere 12.4 yards per game this season. That number is more indicative of a team that is 4-3 rather than one that is 7-0. You could certainly make the argument that the Cowboys are the better team with those numbers, and there
|11-04-12||Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. NY Giants||Top||24-20||Win||100||95 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
While the Steelers do have three losses on the season, they really gave those games away. They held fourth quarter leads against the Broncos, Titans and Raiders and managed to let them slip away. Pittsburgh is really looking for a statement win, and it will be highly motivated when it goes into New York Sunday against the defending champs.
Pittsburgh may be a bit banged up, but it is playing its best football of the season right now. After a 24-17 road win at Cincinnati in Week 7, the Steelers came back with a 27-12 home victory over the Washington Redskins in arguably their most complete game of the season last Sunday. They limited Robert Griffin III and Washington
|11-04-12||Minnesota Vikings +5 v. Seattle Seahawks||20-30||Loss||-106||90 h 39 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +5
The Vikings are getting some extra rest coming into this one, and they certainly need it to regroup and refocus after a 17-36 home loss to the Bucs last Thursday. They will be on three extra days of rest, which will make their trip out West a lot less of a distraction than it normally would be. It has given Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Antoine Winfield and Mistral Raymond more time to recover from minor injuries.
Peterson has amazingly returned from a knee injury to lead the league in rushing this season with 775 yards and four touchdowns. Harvin is one of the most electrifying players in the league with what he does on offense and special teams. He ranks 5th in the league in receiving with 60 grabs for 667 yards and three touchdowns. With these two playmakers on Minnesota
|11-04-12||Arizona Cardinals +11 v. Green Bay Packers||17-31||Loss||-107||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +11
The Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league. Their stop unit has given up 24 or less points in 17 straight games dating back to last season. They are giving up just 17.7 points per game this season. They rank 6th in the league in total defense, allowing a mere 312.9 yards per game. This stop unit is capable of keeping them in every ball game.
|11-04-12||Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans -10||9-21||Win||100||87 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -10
Houston has arguably been the best team in the league this season. The Texans own the second-best record in the NFL and have been absolutely rolling teams along the way. They already have four wins by 20 points or more, including a 43-13 home victory over Baltimore last time out in Week 8. They are outscoring opponents 30.9 to 18.3, or by an average of 12.6 points per game.
The Texans are dominant on both sides of the ball as they have little to no weaknesses. They rank 9th in the league in total offense (371.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 140.9 yards on the ground and 230.6 through the air. They are 3rd in the league in total defense at 283.0 yards per game allowed, proving that their No. 2 finish last season was no fluke.
|11-03-12||Alabama v. LSU +10||21-17||Win||100||69 h 28 m||Show|
15* Alabama/LSU SEC Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU +10
It's time to fade the No. 1 team in the country as the Alabama Crimson Tide are simply overvalued heading into this showdown with No. 5 LSU. The Tigers want payback from a loss in the national title game, and they're not about to let the Crimson Tide come into their building and embarrass them.
"There are a lot of scars from that national championship game," LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan said. "You will see it on the field. The loss in the national championship game had a big impact on us. Going into last season, we had set goals like winning the national championship. Bama took that from us. They took that national championship ring. We want to show the world that we have bounced back from that loss."
LSU has won a school-record 22 straight home games, yet it is a big home underdog Saturday. Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and it will be a rowdy atmosphere for this one, you can bank on that.
The Tigers come in with an extra week of rest after having last week off, so the schedule could not have set up any better for them. That extra week of rest and preparation is huge when trying to get ready for a team like Alabama. LSU will be the more ready team this Saturday.
These are two evenly-matched teams for the most part. Both have dominant defense and great running games. Sure, Alabama may have an edge at quarterback, but I think that's negated with LSU's home-field advantage. This one will likely come right down to the final possession folks, just as it did in last year's 9-6 LSU road victory in overtime in the regular season.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|11-03-12||Clemson -12.5 v. Duke||56-20||Win||100||68 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -12.5
This is an absolute mismatch in ACC play Saturday and the final score will show that. Clemson has way too much talent and athleticism across the board for Duke to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
At 7-1 this season, the Tigers still have a lot to play for, and they're still very much alive in the ACC title race in their bid for back-to-back conference championships. This team has learned a lot from its meltdown at the end of last season as it is a year older and a lot more mature.
"I just think the experience they've had is going to pay off for them," head coach Dabo Swinney said. "That's usually the case." Quarterback Tajh Boyd said he's a much more mature player this season and doesn't spend much time thinking about what went wrong for him last fall.
"It's a growth in the leadership role and having these guys look up to me in any situation whether we're down or up," he said. "So my job is to stay calm, stay poised and let the game come to me." Boyd leads the league with more than 326 yards of total offense per game. He's also tops in the ACC with 20 TD passes against six interceptions.
Boyd threw for a school-record 428 yards in last Thursday's 42-13 win at Wake Forest. Clemson has now had a couple extra days of rest heading into this one. Its only loss came on the road 37-49 at Florida State, otherwise the Tigers have been rolling teams. Six of their seven wins have come by double-digits.
Duke has already become bowl eligible with its 6th win. This team had a very easy schedule in the early going, and it took advantage by opening 6-2. As a result, the Blue Devils are overvalued now heading into tough stretch run, which started with last week's 7-48 loss at Florida State.
Duke couldn't hang with the Seminoles, which is a team very similar to Clemson in terms of talent and athleticism. The Blue Devils could be without starting QB Sean Renfree, who suffered a head injury against FSU. I still love the Tigers if he plays, but if he doesn't it's just an added bonus.
The Tigers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with Duke. These games haven't even been close as Clemson has won by a combined score of 127-37. They have won all three games by 24 or more points.
Clemson is 9-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Clemson is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 conference games. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|11-03-12||Pittsburgh +17 v. Notre Dame||26-29||Win||100||65 h 60 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +17
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season. They beat Oklahoma on the road last Saturday as ESPN's College Game Day made the trip to see it live. Off such an emotional win with so much national exposure, it's only human nature for the Fighting Irish to have a letdown this week against Pittsburgh.
There's no way the Irish will be able to match the intensity they played with against Oklahoma off such a huge win. Sure, they may win this game against the Panthers, but it won't be my more than 17 points. Pitt has the talent to hang around and make this a game.
While the Panthers are just 4-4 this season, I have no doubt that they are better than their record. They rank 43rd in the country in total offense (431.9 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (339.9 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 92 yards/game. That's the sign of a very good football team, and one that is better than .500.
Notre Dame has not been blowing teams out at home. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 at home, but they have won those four games by a combined 20 points, or by an average of 5.0 points/game. They don't have one home win by more than 7 points all season, and both Purdue and BYU were able to stay within a field goal.
Pitt comes in with a lot of confidence as it is playing its best football of the season. It has beaten Buffalo and Temple the past two weeks by a combined score of 67-23. The Panthers will certainly be laying it all on the line to try and pick up a signature win by pulling off the upset Saturday.
This has been a very tight series in recent years as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer. I look for this one to come right down to the wire as well. The underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-03-12||Ole Miss +14.5 v. Georgia||10-37||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi +14.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are in a huge letdown spot here against underrated Ole Miss. Georgia is coming off its biggest win of the season with a 17-9 victory over SEC East rival Florida. It forced six turnovers in the win.
While the Bulldogs are now in control of their own destiny in the SEC East, there's no way they'll be able to match the intensity they played with in a statement win over the Gators. That makes them ripe for the picking against an Ole Miss team that doesn't get the respect it deserves.
The Rebels have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten both Auburn and Arkansas, while losing by just 3 points to Texas A&M and by 19 at Alabama. That 19-point road loss to the Crimson Tide was the closest any team has come to beating the No. 1 team in the country.
Hugh Freeze is the real deal as a head coach after guiding Arkansas State to a perfect 8-0 record in conference play and a Sun Belt championship. He has already guided the Rebels to a 5-3 start and one win away from bowl contention after Houston Nutt left the program in a mess.
Freeze has a stud quarterback in Bo Wallace who is simply carrying this team on his shoulders. Wallace is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,649 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 263 yards and five scores. Jeff Scott is a beast at tailback, rushing for 612 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.4/carry.
The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-03-12||Washington State +12 v. Utah||6-49||Loss||-110||64 h 28 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +12
The Utah Utes are way overvalued heading into this showdown Saturday. They are getting way too much respect for their 49-27 home win over Cal last week that was gift-wrapped by the Golden Bears. Cal gave up two 100-yard kickoff return touchdowns and a fumble return for a score, which is how it lost by 22 despite outgaining the Utes 441-344 for the game.
Washington State may be just 2-6, but this team is much better than its record would indicate. It just lost at Stanford 17-24 last Saturday as a 25-point underdog. It recently got back its secret weapon in starting quarterback Jeff Tuel from injury.
The Cougars actually outgained the Cardinal 385-256 last Saturday and really should have won the game. Stanford had a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that proved to be the difference. Tuel completed 43 of 60 passes for 401 yards and two touchdowns against a very good Stanford defense.
Tuel will be the key to the Cougars likely pulling off this upset Saturday. Utah has given up some big passing numbers this season. It gave up 372 against Arizona State, 303 against USC and 288 against California. Teams struggle to run the football on the Utes, but the Cougars don't run it one bit. They will have a lot of success through the air Saturday.
Washington State lost 27-30 at home to Utah last season. It simply gave that game away because despite throwing for 337 yards, the Cougars committed five turnovers and had a -3 turnover differential for the game, which proved to be the difference. The Cougars want revenge in this one and will take better care of the football.
The Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 0-4 ATS int is last 4 games following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Utes are officially on upset alert heading into this one folks. Take Washington State Saturday.
|11-03-12||Oklahoma -11 v. Iowa State||Top||35-20||Win||100||69 h 49 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -11
The Oklahoma Sooners should roll right over the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. This line has been set too low due to Oklahoma's loss to Notre Dame last week. Well, both of the Sooners' losses this season have come against two unbeaten teams in Notre Dame and Kansas State that don't get the credit they deserve.
The Sooners have owned this series with the Cyclones, and that won't change Saturday. Oklahoma has won 13 straight meetings with Iowa State by an average score of 32-8. It has also won 20 straight road meetings with the Cyclones with its last loss in Ames coming in 1960.
Iowa State is going to be without its best defensive player in linebacker Jake Knott, who was a first-team All-Big 12 performer a year ago. The Cyclones are simply going to be overmatched talent-wise all over the field. They have averaged a mere 5 points/game in their last six meetings with Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|11-03-12||Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -3.5||24-27||Loss||-102||61 h 29 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -3.5
Buffalo is just 1-7 with its only win against an FCS opponent, yet it is still favored against Miami (Ohio) Saturday. Oddsmakers know what they're doing here folks, realizing that Buffalo is a better team than its record and one that should warrant a big wager as it crushes the Redhawks Saturday.
The Bulls have lost to seven FBS opponents this season with a combined record of 44-14 SU, including five one-loss teams. The only exceptions were Big East programs Pitt and UConn. Buffalo has been an underdog in all but one of those contests as it gave up 3 points to Kent State in Week 4, who beat Rutgers last week.
Buffalo has returned star running back Branden Oliver, who is arguably the most explosive player in the MAC. He rushed for 101 yards last week in a 25-20 loss to Toledo in his first game back from a knee injury suffered against the Golden Flashes back in September.
Miami (Ohio) is in a huge letdown spot here. It just beat instate rival Ohio 23-20 last Saturday, handing the Bobcats their first loss of the season. It will be very tough for the Redhawks to get up emotionally to play this Saturday and match their intensity from last week's home contest. It's just not going to happen.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Roll with Buffalo Saturday.
|11-02-12||Washington +4.5 v. California||Top||21-13||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cal ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +4.5
|11-01-12||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||13-31||Loss||-110||79 h 43 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City +8
The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best 1-6 team in the history of the NFL. As a result, they are undervalued heading into this rematch with the San Diego Chargers, who are clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
It's hard to go 1-6 when you rank 12th in the league in total offense (367.9 yards/game) and 18th in total defense (348.7 yards/game), so the Chiefs are actually outgaining their opponents by 19.2 yards/game. That's a number more indicative a team that's 4-3 instead of 1-6.
Sure, Kansas City has simply beaten itself with turnovers, committing 25 of them with a -18 turnover differential on the season. Sooner rather than later, this team is going to figure out how to take care of the football, and I'm banking on that being tonight.
San Diego beat Kansas City 37-20 in the first meeting, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Chiefs actually outgained the Chargers 349-293 for the game, but they committed six turnovers to give the game away. I look for them to learn from their mistakes and not gift wrap this one to the Chargers.
San Diego is reeling itself, losing three straight games to the Saints, Broncos and Browns. This team has a lot more pressure on it because public perception says that they continue to underachieve every year. However, Philip Rivers and the offense just simply isn't that good. San Diego ranks 25th in the league in total offense (321.0 yards/game). Rivers really misses former Charger greats LT, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. Take the Chiefs Thursday.
|11-01-12||Virginia Tech v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 58||Top||12-30||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on VA Tech/Miami UNDER 58
Oddsmakers have inflated this total in Thursday's ACC rivalry between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Miami Hurricanes. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012 season in ACC play.
Virginia Tech was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country this season. While it hasn't been up to par on this side of the ball, a closer look says that the Hokies have actually been pretty good on defense.
The Hokies are giving up 24.0 points and 370 total yards/game this season. Sure, that doesn't sound great, but when you consider that the eight opponents they've played average 30.3 points and 411 total yards/game, it's easy to see that they've simply been up against some of the best offenses in the country. They've actually done a pretty good job, holding them to 6.3 points and 41 total yards less than their season averages.
Miami's defense hasn't been spectacular this season, but it has had a similar problem to Virginia Tech. It has simply played eight opposing offenses that average 31.4 points and 430 total yards per game. Both team's defensive numbers have been inflated due to the quality of offenses they have faced.
Neither of these offenses is really lighting it up as Virginia Tech averages 29.0 points overall and 23.0 on the road. Miami averages 26.9 points and 29.0 at home. I look for both teams to be held below their season averages in this one.
I believe a big reason this total is inflated is due to last year's meeting, which saw Virginia Tech win 38-35 at home. That final was simply an aberration considering the total was set at 45.5 points, so oddsmakers were expecting a much lower-scoring game. Eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 58 or less combined points. That 73-point outburst last year was the only exception.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and that extra preparation certainly favors the defense. There won't be any element of surprise as both teams have had two weeks to prepare for one another. The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Hurricanes last 60 home games.
Virginia Tech is 13-2 to the UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-2 in Hokies last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a bye week. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. These five trends combine for a 42-4 (91% System) backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-29-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7||Top||24-3||Loss||-120||176 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Arizona +7
The Arizona Cardinals are showing awesome value as a touchdown underdog at home to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are way overvalued in this spot against a Cardinals team that simply does not get the respect it deserves.
Arizona has opened 4-3, and even with a win at New England and a home victory over Philadelphia, this team just gets no love from the books or the betting public. That's evident by the fact that they are a 7-point underdog at home here against a division rival.
Sure, the Cardinals have lost three straight since a 4-0 start, but they easily could have won all three of those contests. They outgained St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota in all three of those contests, and arguably should have won all three because of it. They outgained the Vikings 356-209 in a 14-21 road loss last week.
Arizona's offense is in better hands with John Skelton instead of Kevin Kolb, but what makes this team so underrated is its defense. The Cardinals are giving up just 16.9 points/game while ranking 7th in the league in total defense (312.3 yards/game). They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 16 straight games dating back to last season which is absolutely mind-blowing to me.
These are two pretty evenly matched teams with great defenses, though I would give the edge to the 49ers offensively. However, they have no business laying a touchdown on the road here, especially after losing at Arizona 19-21 last season as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals outgained the 49ers 325-233, and Skelton threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns in the win. After that performance, Skelton won't be intimidated by San Francisco's defense one bit. Alex Smith went 18 of 37 passing for 175 yards for the 49ers.
The Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents. Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in it last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Cardinals are 34-13 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992. The 49ers are 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game since 1992. Arizona is 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arizona Monday.
|10-28-12||New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Denver Broncos||Top||14-34||Loss||-110||152 h 34 m||Show|
20* Saints/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +6.5
The New Orleans Saints are undervalued at this point in the season because of their 2-4 start. This team has rebounded nicely with two straight wins, and I like them to carry that momentum into Denver Sunday night. I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't getting treated like it because of their slow start, which has them under the radar.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a bye and they are way overvalued because of it. This is a quality team and one that I picked to win the AFC West, but they have no business being this heavily favored against the Saints. I would actually make New Orleans a favorite on a neutral field, so I believe it is a stronger team despite its record. All four of its losses have come by 8 points or less.
The Saints have not missed a beat offensively this season, and with Drew Brees and company this isn't a team that is going to lose by a touchdown or more very often. They can always come back from any deficit, just like they did against the Bucs last week. They were down 7-21 and scored 28 unanswered points, eventually winning 35-28. They are scoring 29.3 points/game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total offense (411.3 yards/game).
New Orleans is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 17.0 points/game. The The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The Saints are 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. These five trends combine for a 39-3 (93%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|10-28-12||Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -1||26-16||Loss||-120||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -1
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a must-win spot already early in the season. Their bye week could not have come at a better time as they've had a chance to regroup after a 1-5 start. I believe this team is much better than its record, and as a result the Chiefs are way undervalued at this point of the season.
Kansas City ranks 8th in the NFL in total offense (379.3 yards/game), including 3rd in rushing (164.0 yards/game). It is also a respectable 15th in total defense (349.5 yards/game). As you can see, the Chiefs are outgaining opponents by roughly 30 yards/game this season. These numbers are more indicative of a 4-2 team rather than one that's 1-5 like Kansas City.
I believe Oakland is every bit as bad as its 2-4 record. It ranks 19th in the league in total offense (350.0 yards/game) and 17th in total defense (356.7 yards/game). Those numbers about right on par with its 2-4 record.
Both of the Raiders' wins have come on last-second field goals at home against the Jaguars and Steelers, who outgained them by 112 total yards and managed to blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter. The Raiders are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 18.7 points/game.
The Chiefs have simply been shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers all season. They have committed 21 turnovers through six games already, and that pace simply will not keep up. There's no doubt they addressed that issue during their bye week, and I look for Kansas City to take much better care of the football with Brady Quinn getting the start over Matt Cassel. Look for the Chiefs to rely on their third-ranked rushing attack as Jamaal Charles has a monster game against Oakland.
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 1-13 ATS vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. These three trends combine for a 28-2 (93%) system backing Kansas City. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|10-28-12||New England Patriots -6.5 v. St. Louis Rams||45-7||Win||100||119 h 5 m||Show|
15* Pats/Rams NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -6.5
The New England Patriots should be a much bigger favorite over the St. Louis Rams on a neutral field Sunday in London. They'll have no problem beating the St. Louis Rams by more than a touchdown.
Somehow, the Patriots are a bit under the radar this season because they have three early losses. Those three came by a combined four points as this team could easily be undefeated this season. Public perception is down on them right now because of their overtime win against the Jets last week, but these are the same old Patriots.
The offense is clicking as well as it ever had this season. New England is scoring 31.0 points/game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense (436.1 yards/game). Their offense is a lot more balanced this season as they rank 5th in rushing (149.3 yards/game) and 5th in passing (286.9 yards/game). Even the defense is improved.
The Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they have three wins in the early going, which is more than they had all of last year. This is still one of the worst teams in the league, and they'll be exposed against the Patriots just like they were in a 20-30 home loss to the Packers last week. Aaron Rodgers went 30 of 37 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, and you know Tom Brady is going to have similar success.
St. Louis is 0-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 14.3 points/game. It doesn't have the offensive firepower it takes to keep up with the Patriots in this one. It is scoring 18.3 points/game overall this season while ranking 28th in the league in total offense (315.3 yards/game).
The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a home loss over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 16.0 points/game. St. Louis is 1-11 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992, losing in this spot by 19.5 points/game. The Rams are 0-8 ATS in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992, losing by 21.5 points/game. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-28-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1||30-17||Loss||-125||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Eagles NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia -1
This is a more important game for the Philadelphia Eagles than it is for the Atlanta Falcons as both teams are coming in off a bye. Atlanta is 6-0 on the season and not as good as its record, while Philly is 3-3 and better than its record in my opinion. The Eagles cannot afford to drop to 3-4, while the Falcons can afford a loss.
Andy Reid always works his magic on bye weeks with his players. He is the best head coach in the business during a bye week. That's evident by the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 13-0 when coming off a bye under Reid.
The switch to a new defensive coordinator could not have come at a better time. I look for the Eagles to come up with more big plays and more sacks with their new, more aggressive style. They have been pretty good on this side of the ball anyways, ranking 11th in the league in total defense (330.8 yards/game). They are also 7th in total offense (379.2 yards/game) and haven't reached their potential on that side of the ball.
Atlanta should have lost two of its last three games to the Carolina Panthers and Oakland Raiders. Matt Ryan overcame three interceptions and set up Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal as time expired to give his team a 30-28 home victory over Carolina on 9/30. The Falcons were outgained 357-449 in a 23-20 home victory over the Oakland Raiders on 10/14 that also ended in a Bryant game-winning field goal. Their luck runs out Sunday.
Philly should have won in Atlanta last season, but it lost 35-31. It was outgained 14-0 in the fourth quarter after Michael Vick went out in the third period with a rib injury. The Eagles outgained the Falcons 447-318 for the game and clearly outplayed them despite losing. At home this time around, I look for the Eagles to get their revenge and dominate on the field and on the scoreboard.
This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. Philly is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Atlanta, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|10-28-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Detroit Lions -1||24-28||Win||100||119 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions -1
The Detroit Lions have certainly underachieved up to this point of the season after making the playoffs last year. As a result, they are way undervalued heading into their Week 8 showdown at home with the Seattle Seahawks, who are way overvalued after their surprising, fortunate start.
Detroit is a much better team than its 2-4 record would indicate. It is still moving the ball at will, and the defense is better than it gets credit for. The Lions rank 4th in the league in total offense (406.3 yards/game) and 8th in total defense (319.5 yards/game). Those are numbers more indicative of a 4-2, 5-1 or 6-0 team rather than one that is 2-4. This team has simply been beating itself with turnovers, but I look for them to shore up that problem this week.
Seattle has been fortunate to open 4-3 this season. It was gift-wrapped a win over the Packers by the replacement officials, and somehow managed to beat the Patriots despite giving up 475 total yards. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this year where magic seems to happen, but they are just 1-3 on the road, scoring a mere 12.7 points/game away from home.
The Seahawks do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lions, who simply will want this game more as they cannot afford to fall to 2-5 if they want to make the playoffs. Seattle is scoring just 16.6 points/game this season while ranking 30th in the NFL in total offense (293.6 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on favorites (DETROIT) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Bet Detroit Sunday.
|10-27-12||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 47.5||7-38||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
15* Miss State/Alabama ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47.5
I look for a defensive battle Saturday between Mississippi State and Alabama. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and points will be hard to come by, especially for the Bulldogs.
Alabama gives up just 8.3 points/game while ranking 1st in the country in total defense (195.6 yard/game). They rank 1st against the run (58.7 yards/game) and 2nd against the pass (136.9 yards/game) as they simply do not give up an inch.
Mississippi State is yielding just 14.4 points/game while ranking 25th in total defense (327.7 yards/game). Both offenses are kind of vanilla, and each will struggle to move the football on these two stop units.
Each of the last 14 meetings in this series have seen 44 or less combined points with the under going 9-2 in those contests. Considering the total is 47.5 for this meeting, that makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1998. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-27-12||Notre Dame +10 v. Oklahoma||30-13||Win||100||92 h 7 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to get no respect despite their 7-0 start and No. 5 ranking in the BCS and AP polls. I look for head coach Brian Kelly to use the fact that they are 10-point underdogs as big motivation for his team heading into this game with Oklahoma.
Notre Dame has to be feeling disrespected right now and wanting to take out its frustration on the Sooners. It has beaten three ranked teams along the way to this 7-0 start with victories over then-No. 18 Michigan, then-No. 10 Michigan State and then-No. 17 Stanford.
The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-1 start and have pretty much made easy work of everyone expect Kansas State. Well, the Wildcats were the only real physical team that the Sooners have faced, and they beat Oklahoma in Norman 24-19. Oklahoma has only beaten one ranked team this season in Texas, who are clearly down again this season.
As I mentioned before, Notre Dame is a physical team like Kansas State, and that's why it will have success against this soft Oklahoma squad. The Irish give up just 9.4 points/game while ranking 6th in the country in total defense (280.7 yards/game), including 15th against the run (106.7 yards/game) and 13th against the pass (174.0 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses on defense. They are also 38th in rushing offense (193.9 yards/game), winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Irish are 6-0 ATS n road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, winning by 21.1 points/game in this spot. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|10-27-12||Central Florida -2 v. Marshall||54-17||Win||100||92 h 6 m||Show|
15* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -2
The UCF Knights are clearly the superior team in this showdown with Marshall Saturday. The oddsmakers have this one right as they have installed them as a road favorite in this Conference USA clash.
UCF is 5-2 this season with its only losses coming against BCS opponents Ohio State and Missouri. Its five wins have all come by a touchdown or more, and four have come by 13 points or more. This team is clearly the real deal in 2012 and the class of Conference USA.
Marshall is just 3-4 on the season with its only wins coming against Western Carolina, Rice and Southern Miss. Many bettors like Marshall because of their gaudy offensive numbers, but this team doesn't play a lick of defense, which is where this game will be decided.
UCF ranks 38th in the country in total defense (352.9 yards/game) while also giving up only 22.0 points/game. Marshall ranks 100th in total defense (450.0 yards/game) and gives up 41.6 points/game. The Knights will be able to hold the Thundering Herd's offense in check while also scoring at will on their suspect defense.
This play is a lot about program dominance too as the Knights have owned the Thundering Herd this decade. UCF is a perfect 7-0 SU in seven meetings with Marshall dating back to 2005. It should be a much bigger favorite Saturday as it goes for its eighth straight victory in this series. Roll with UCF Saturday.
|10-27-12||Navy +5 v. East Carolina||Top||56-28||Win||100||119 h 17 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Navy +5
The Navy Midshipmen represent my favorite underdog bet for the entire 2012 college football season Saturday. They should not be a dog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance here folks.
Navy has won three straight since making the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who is easily their best playmaker. He replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game, leading the Midshipmen to a 28-21 overtime victory of the comeback variety on the road.
Reynolds scored on a 15-yard touchdown run to tie the game at 21-21 with 6:35 remaining in the fourth quarter. He threw three touchdown passes in a win 31-13 win at Central Michigan the next week, and led another comeback 31-30 home win over a very underrated Indiana team last Saturday.
This team clearly has a ton of confidence in Reynolds and they will ride their momentum into East Carolina this weekend. Reynolds is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 362 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions on 37 attempts. He has also rushed for 165 yards and two scores, and his dual-threat ability makes him perfect for this offense.
Navy wants revenge from a 35-38 home loss to East Carolina last season. Its last trip to East Carolina resulted in a 76-35 victory for the Midshipmen in 2010. The Pirates are simply overrated at 5-3 this season as their five wins have come against Appalachian State, Southern Miss, UTEP, Memphis and UAB.
As you can see, the Pirates have not beaten a worthy opponents yet. Their three losses came against South Carolina (10-48), North Carolina (6-27) and UCF (20-40). They weren't even competitive when they took a step up in competition. Navy is a much better team than all five of the squads that East Carolina has beaten this season.
Navy is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 17.7 points/game. East Carolina is 1-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. It is losing in this spot by 12.4 points/game. Bet Navy Saturday.
|10-27-12||Florida v. Georgia +7||Top||9-17||Win||100||89 h 49 m||Show|
20* Gators/Bulldogs SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7
The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now after opening the season 7-0. They were underrated in the first half of the season, but now it's time to switch gears and fade them Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia is undervalued at this point of the year after its 6-1 start. It has not played up to its potential after winning the SEC East last season. The Bulldogs are still at least even with Florida talent-wise, and I believe they put their best foot forward Saturday with the East title at stake. A loss would eliminate Georgia in the title race.
The reason Florida is so overvalued here is because it beat South Carolina 44-11 last week at home. That was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen as it was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Gators were actually outgained 183-191 by the Gamecocks, but South Carolina was -4 in turnovers and set Florida up with several easy scores.
The last two meetings in this series were decided by four points or less, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire again. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 last season while outgaining the Gators 354-226.
Georgia has a much more potent offense than Florida, and while I'll admit the Gators have the better defense, the gap in talent on that side of the ball isn't that far off. Georgia ranks 18th in the country in total offense (486.9 yards/game) while Florida ranks 101st in total offense (350.4 yards/game). Georgia ranks 47th in total defense (367.4 yards/game), but it will be much improved on this side of the ball as the season goes on with the return of several suspended defensive starters recently.
The Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Georgia Saturday.
|10-27-12||BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5||41-17||Loss||-108||87 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -2.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are undervalued at this point in the season due to their slow start. This team is much better than its 3-4 record would indicate, and it certainly cannot afford to lose this contest if it wants to become bowl eligible by season's end.
Three of Georgia Tech's losses have come against Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road, and Miami at home. The Yellow Jackets arguably should have won all three of those contests as they blew a 3-point lead over the final minute against the Hokies, a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Miami, and a 31-30 fourth quarter lead against Clemson.
BYU is coming off a tough 14-17 loss at Notre Dame as it lost in the final seconds to fall to 4-4 on the season. This team simply has not been able to generate enough offense to win games consistently in 2012. It has been held to 24 or less points in five of its last six games, going 2-4 in the process.
BYU has a very good defense, but it has been up against some very weak competition all season on the offensive end. Opposing teams that BYU has played have only averaged 22.6 points and 355 total yards/game this season. The Cougars will have their hands full with a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 15th in the country at 497.7 total yards/game.
The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Independent teams. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|10-27-12||Tennessee +14 v. South Carolina||35-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +14
The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching two touchdowns against the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday. The Vols are way undervalued due to their 0-4 start in SEC play which couldn't have come against tougher competition.
All four of Tennessee's losses in the SEC have come against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama, which are four teams that all rank within the Top 13 in the AP Poll. It doesn't get a whole lot easier against South Carolina Saturday, but I believe they catch the Gamecocks in a great spot.
South Carolina is reeling from two straight losses to LSU and Florida that essentially knocked them out of the national title and SEC East title races. I fully expect the Gamecocks to suffer a hangover from those two defeats and not show up Saturday knowing that their goals have been stripped away from them over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will be extra motivated for its first conference victory. It played both Georgia and Mississippi State tough on the road, losing by just 7 points to Georgia and 10 to Mississippi State. It should have no problem staying within two touchdowns Saturday in a game it can win outright.
South Carolina simply does not have the offensive firepower it takes to cover this big of a spread against a team that is just as talented. The Gamecocks only won 14-3 in Knoxville last season against a Vols team that was playing without star quarterback Tyler Bray and star wide receiver Justin Hunter, who were both out with injuries.
Bray is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Hunter has caught 39 balls for 567 yards and four scores. Having these two healthy this time around will make a huge difference in the outcome of this rematch.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 12.6 points/game. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in South Carolina. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|10-26-12||Nevada -3 v. Air Force||Top||31-48||Loss||-110||71 h 37 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -3
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the Air Force Falcons. I'll gladly back them as only a 3-point favorite here. The Falcons are simply overmatched in this one.
Nevada is a dynamic offensive team that the Falcons will have a hard time keeping up with on the scoreboard. It is scoring 40.6 points/game while averaging 541.1 total yards/game, ranking 6th in the country in total offense. They beat teams behind a balanced attack that features 272.0 yards on the ground and 269.1 through the air.
The Wolf Pack could easily be 8-0 right now, but they are 6-2 due to two losses by exactly one point each. Coming off a 38-39 overtime loss to San Diego State last week, this team will be highly motivated to bounce back with a victory tonight. Nevada is 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 44.0 to 26.5 in the process.
Nevada takes advantage of its red zone opportunities, scoring on 37 of 44 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Of those 37 scores, a whopping 32 have been touchdowns! Air Force has converted just 21 of 30 trips inside the red zone. Air Force has given up 24 scores on 27 trips by opponents into the red zone, including 19 touchdowns.
The Falcons have faced a very soft schedule with poor offensive teams along the way. Still, they are giving up a ridiculous 427.4 yards/game, ranking 83rd in the country in total defense. They are giving up 222 rushing yards/game and 5.4/carry on the ground, while Nevada is yielding a respectable 156 yards/game and 4.3/carry.
Air Force is 0-7 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Chris Ault is 9-1 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of Nevada. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Nevada Friday.
|10-25-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||36-17||Win||100||56 h 11 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers represent my strongest Thursday night play of the entire 2012 season in Week 8. I recommend buying this up to +7 just to be safe, but I believe the Bucs have an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.
Tampa is just 2-4 this season, but it has been much better than its record would indicate. All four losses have come by 7 points or less, so they could easily be a winning team right now had things gone their way down the stretch of games. This is also a reason why I recommend buying it to 7 because I cannot see the Bucs losing by more than a touchdown for the first time all year.
Minnesota is one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 5-2 start. Now is the time to fade this team considering it is way overvalued heading into Week 8. The Vikings beat the Cardinals 21-14 at home last week despite getting outgained 356-209. Arizona simply gave the game away with costly turnovers.
I like Tampa's balance offensively as it averages 101.2 yards on the ground and 245.5 through the air. While the Bucs' biggest weakness is their pass defense, that won't come into play Thursday because the Vikings are a terrible passing team, ranking 27th in the league in passing offense (203.4 yards/game).
This is just such a good match-up for the Bucs because of their ability to stop the run. Tampa ranks 3rd in the league in run defense (76.0 yards/game), while the Vikings are 7th in rushing offense (132.3 yards/game). So Tampa's poor pass defense gets negated by Minnesota's poor passing offense, and Tampa's dominant run defense will contain Adrian Peterson and Minnesota's above-average rushing offense.
Tampa is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota. The Bucs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tampa is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 road games. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win. Bet Tampa Bay Thursday.
|10-25-12||Clemson -11.5 v. Wake Forest||42-13||Win||100||46 h 7 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Wake Forest ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -11.5
Provided Clemson doesn't commit numerous self-inflicted wounds, it should win this game by three-plus touchdowns against overmatched Wake Forest Thursday. The Tigers simply have the edge in talent and speed in this one, and the Demon Deacons aren't going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
The No. 14 Tigers (6-1, 3-1) are averaging 40.9 points and 492.9 yards per game, and they haven't scored fewer than 37 points since a season-opening 26-19 win over Auburn on Sept. 1. They rank 1st in red zone scoring offense, converting 32 of 33 trips into points, including 23 touchdowns. They are also a surprising 16th in red zone defense, giving up just 18 scores in 26 trips, including a mere 12 touchdowns.
Wake Forest is nowhere near as good as its 4-3 record would indicate. Three of those wins have come against Liberty, Army and Virginia. The Demon Deacons rank just 112th in the country in total offense (316.1 yards/game), and they are scoring a mere 22.0 points/game. They have been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 73rd in total defense (405.0 yards/game).
Clemson has won three straight over Wake Forest by a combined score of 99-41. Sure, the Tigers only won 31-28 at home last year, but that final score was very misleading. Clemson outgained Wake 522-317 for the game, but it was -3 in turnovers and allowed a punt return for a touchdown.
When teams outgain opponents by more than 200 yards, they usually win by at least two touchdowns. I expect the Tigers to eliminate their self-inflicted wounds this time around.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Wake is 1-11 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Clemson is 8-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take Clemson Thursday.
|10-23-12||Arkansas State +4.5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||Top||50-27||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
20* Arkansas State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +4.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt last season with an unbeaten 8-0 record in conference play. They have the talent again in 2012 to repeat as champs, and a win over Louisiana-Lafayette tonight would be a big step in that direction.
Arkansas State is off to a 4-3 start this season. Its only losses have come on the road against Oregon and Nebraska out of conference, and Western Kentucky within the conference. The Red Wolves blew a 13-0 halftime lead to the Hilltoppers, who are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana-Lafayette has played a much softer schedule than Arkansas State, which is a big reason why it is 4-2 right now. Its four wins have come against Lamar, Troy, Florida International and Tulane. Despite playing a weaker schedule than the Arkansas State, the Rajin' Cajuns have posted worse numbers.
The Red Wolves rank 35th in the country in total offense (448.7 yards/game) and 52nd in total defense (376.3 yards/game). The Rajin' Cajuns rank 62nd in total offense (404.5 yards/game) and 81st in total defense (422.2 yards/game). As you can see, Lafayette is actually getting outgained on the season.
Lafayette lost at North Texas last Tuesday 23-30, while Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29 at home last Saturday. That means the Red Wolves have had three extra days to prepare for the Rajin' Cajuns, which is clearly advantage. Also, Lafayette's top two receivers in Harry Peoples and Javone Lawson were knocked out of the North Texas game, and each is questionable to return Tuesday.
Arkansas State beat Lafayette 30-21 last year. Quarterback Ryan Aplin had a big day, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Aplin has been solid again this season, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,572 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 244 yards and three scores.
This play falls into a system that is 69-30 (69.7%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.
|10-22-12||Detroit Lions +5 v. Chicago Bears||Top||7-13||Loss||-103||176 h 37 m||Show|
20* Lions/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +5
The Detroit Lions are simply catching too many points Monday night against the Chicago Bears. This NFC North rivalry will go right down to the wire. Chicago is getting too much credit here for coming off its bye week, which won't be as big of a factor as this line is indicating.
Detroit is one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of the NFL. All three losses have come by 8 points or less. It is coming off a huge 26-23 overtime victory at Philadelphia last week, giving it a ton of momentum heading into this showdown with the hated Bears.
The biggest indicator that the Lions are way underrated and better than their record is their offensive/defensive statistics. They rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense (419.6 yards/game) and 9th in total defense (324.2 yards/game). Those numbers would be more representative of a team that is 4-1 right now, instead of 2-3.
The biggest reason for Detroit's poor start is its inability to force turnovers. Safety Louis Delmas, one of the most underrated defensive backs in the league, came up with one of Detroit's two interceptions against Philly last week. It has not had a pick in any of its first four games. It's no surprise that Delmas' season debut, after missing the first four games due to injury, resulted in the team's first two picks.
Chicago is one of the most overrated teams in the league. It has forced 17 turnovers this season, and several have been returned for touchdowns. There's no way this team can keep forcing turnovers at this rate and turning them into scores like they have been. While the defense is solid, the offense still has a long ways to go. Chicago ranks just 20th in the league in total offense (346.2 yards/game).
Detroit put an end to a six-game losing streak to Chicago last season with a 24-13 home victory. It would lose the rematch 13-37 on the road, but the Lions simply gave that game away. Chicago had two interceptions returned for touchdowns and an 82-yard punt return for a score, getting 21 points from the defense and special teams. The Bears won in a blowout despite getting outgained 216-393! They won't be so fortunate this time around.
The Lions are 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing <=70 rushing yards/game since 1992. Chicago is 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Bet Detroit Monday.
|10-21-12||Pittsburgh Steelers -135 v. Cincinnati Bengals||24-17||Win||100||151 h 29 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh Money Line -135
I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night when they travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals. This is one of the best 2-3 teams the NFL has ever seen, and they'll make a statement here on National TV on NBC as they simply want this one more.
Pittsburgh could easily be 5-0 right now as it has blown 4th quarter leads in all three of its losses, which have all come on the road. It will be extremely motivated to prove that it can win on the road, and I look for the Steelers to put forth their best effort of the season in this one.
Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. After getting off to a 3-1 start, it has lost its last two games to the Dolphins and Browns to come back down to reality. The Bengals simply have weaknesses all over the field that the Steelers are going to exploit, especially defensively.
The Steelers have had a ton of injuries defensively, but what's amazing is that they still have one of the best stop units in the league. They rank 5th in the NFL in total defense (295.8 yards/game), including 4th against the pass (200.8 yards/game). That's huge because the Bengals have been able to pass the ball with consistency this season, but they have had very little success on the ground.
Pittsburgh is 17-5 SU in its last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. The Steelers have swept the season series with the Bengals each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the process. Simply put, the Steelers aren't going to be denied tonight as they cannot afford to fall to 2-4 on the season.
The Steelers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC, and 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North foes. Roll with Pittsburgh Sunday.
|10-21-12||Green Bay Packers -5.5 v. St. Louis Rams||Top||30-20||Win||100||144 h 1 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -5.5
The Green Bay Packers might be the best 3-3 team in the history of the NFL. Because of their three early losses, this team is actually a bit undervalued right now. They should be more than a 7-point favorite against the Rams this week, but since they're not I'll take advantage and back them at less than a touchdown as my strongest play in the NFC for the 2012 season.
The St. Louis Rams are way overrated right now after opening the season 3-3, which is one more win than they had all of last season. They suffered a big loss when Danny Amendola went out with a collarbone injury against the Cardinals two weeks ago. He was by far Sam Bradford's favorite target, and this offense has no chance of keeping up with the Packers without him.
St. Louis is only averaging 18.3 points/game and it ranks just 28th in total offense (308.8 yards/game). Green Bay features an improved stop unit that ranks 14th in the NFL in total defense (340.3 yards/game). It limited the Houston Texans to just 321 total yards in a 42-24 road victory on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. I look for the Packers to build off of their strongest performance of the season and dominate the Rams Sunday.
Green Bay is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with St. Louis. It has won by 21, 19 and 19 points in those three contests, or by an average of 19.7 points/game. Two of those victories came on the road. I expect a similar blowout in this one as the Packers win their fourth straight over the hapless Rams.
The Packers are a perfect 7-0 ATS after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot 38.7 to 16.9, or by an average of 21.8 points/game. This could be one of the biggest blowouts of the season ladies and gents. Bet Green Bay Sunday.
|10-21-12||New Orleans Saints -2.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Top||35-28||Win||100||144 h 1 m||Show|
20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Saints -2.5
The New Orleans Saints might be the best 1-4 team in the history of the NFL. Because of their slow start, which includes four losses by 8 points or less and several blown leads, this team is way undervalued right now heading into Week 7.
New Orleans is still one of the best teams in the league despite its record, hands down. It finally got a taste of victory with a 31-24 triumph at home over San Diego in Week 5. After a bye in Week 6, this team is refreshed and ready to get back to its old dominant ways with a blowout victory at Tampa Bay Sunday.
The Bucs are just 2-3 this season, and they are easily as bad as their record, if not worse. Their only wins have come at home against the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, which are two teams with a combined 2-9 record. This team is hardly better off than it was a year ago.
I look for the Saints to go on a big run and possibly make the playoffs by season's end. Getting them as a 2.5-point favorite here is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as they are clearly the better team, and they're coming off a bye. Teams coming off a bye are 5-1 ATS this season.
This is a great match-up for the Saints. They are No. 1 in the NFL in passing offense (326.8 yards/game) behind more excellent play from star quarterback Drew Brees. He'll have his way with Tampa Bay stop unit that ranks 31st against the pass (312.2 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. The Bucs are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games. Take the Saints Sunday.
|10-21-12||Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Minnesota Vikings||14-21||Loss||-110||144 h 59 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +6
The Minnesota Vikings are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers heading into this contest with the Arizona Cardinals. Admittedly, BOTH teams are overrated after their 4-2 starts, but the clear value in this one is with the big road underdog.
Arizona has lost two straight after its 4-0 start, which included wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I look for it to want this one more after back-to-back defeats. I believe the betting public is simply making too big of a deal over the Kevin Kolb injury.
Remember, John Skelton beat Kolb out for the starting job coming into the season. The Cardinals have not been winning because of Kolb, they've actually been winning IN SPITE of him. In fact, Arizona ranks just 31st in total offense (283.5 yards/game), so if anything Skelton will be an upgrade. Plus, he'll be working on a full week of practice knowing he's the starter going in.
Arizona has been winning because of its defense. It ranks No. 10 in the league in total defense (329.5 yards/game), which is pretty impressive considering it has faced some of the best offenses in the NFL. Minnesota has faced some of the worst offenses in the league en route to its 4-2 start.
The Vikings are 0-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. They are losing in this spot 17.9 to 25.6, or by an average of 7.7 points/game. Arizona has an excellent chance to win outright. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|10-21-12||Washington Redskins +7 v. NY Giants||23-27||Win||100||144 h 59 m||Show|
15* Redskins/Giants NFC East No-Brainer on Washington +7
I locked this line in early in the week. I still like the Redskins at anything +4.5 or more as they have an excellent shot at beating the New York Giants outright Sunday. Washington is showing its best value of the season in this contest.
This is an NFC East rivalry, which is always played close to the vest. In fact, not many gave Washington a chance last year, but it went out and swept the eventual Super Bowl champs in the season series. Eli Manning threw four interceptions and no touchdowns while losing to the Redskins 14-28 on the road, and 10-23 at home in 2012.
Robert Griffin III has been the most impressive of all the rookie quarterbacks this season, and he's clearly the real deal in leading the Redskins to a 3-3 start. All three of their losses have come by 7 points or less, so he has given his team a chance to win every game. Griffin III is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,343 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 390 yards and six scores.
The Giants are in a huge letdown spot here after going on the road and beating the San Francisco 49ers 26-3 last Sunday. They are also way overvalued after that win because the 49ers simply gave that game to them. Alex Smith threw three interceptions, and all three set New York up with great field position. New York will likely be feeling a little too good about itself coming into this one, and it won't have the kind of focus it takes to beat the 'Skins by more than a touchdown.
The Redskins are 34-16 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. Washington is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC East opponents. The Redskins are 13-2 (87%) ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Take the Redskins Sunday.
|10-20-12||Middle Tennessee State +20.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||3-45||Loss||-109||125 h 43 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Middle Tennessee State +20.5
This Saturday, Middle Tennessee State represents my strongest bet for the entire 2012 college football season. I'll gladly take the 20.5 points at Mississippi State in a game that I believe the Blue Raiders could even win outright. This is way too many points given the situation.
I was big on Mississippi State coming into the season, and I backed them with success as a 3-point favorite in a 28-10 home win over Auburn, and as a 3-point favorite in a 41-31 home victory over Tennessee last week. However, I'm shifting gears this Saturday and fading them while they are overvalued.
First and foremost, the Bulldogs' only win by more than 20 points this season came in their opener against Jackson State. They only beat South Alabama 30-10 at home as a 31.5-point favorite. This team isn't built to blow out opponents as it relies on a dink and dunk offense, and a stout defense. It doesn't have the kind of offense that can just put teams away.
My biggest reason for fading Mississippi State here is the fact that it has No. 1 Alabama on deck. I look for these Bulldog players to come out disinterested in this non-conference game against Middle Tennessee State, which is why this thing has upset written all over it. There's no way these players can get up for the Blue Raiders after beating Tennessee, and with the Crimson Tide up next.
Another big reason I like the Blue Raiders to cover this week is the fact that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened 4-2 this season, which includes a 49-28 road win at Georgia Tech as a 24.5-point underdog. They have proven they can hang with BCS competition, and they'll make this thing interesting against the Bulldogs as well.
MTSU quarterback Logan Kilgore is a high percentage passer who will be able to move the ball on this solid Mississippi State defense. He is completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,422 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Look for him to target stud receiver Anthony Amos, who has 39 receptions for 580 yards and five touchdowns, a lot.
The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. Sun Belt foes. As you can see, they don't play their best when stepping out of conference in recent years. Bet Middle Tennessee State Saturday.
|10-20-12||Western Michigan v. Kent State -3||24-41||Win||100||121 h 13 m||Show|
15* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State -3
The Kent State Golden Flashes have been going under the radar all season simply because they play in a small conference. Once again, this team is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as it hosts Western Michigan Saturday in MAC play.
Kent State returned 16 starters coming into the season and it may have its best team in school history. The Flashes are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming at Kentucky. Four of their five wins have come by 14 points or more, so this team isn't just squeaking by people.
Western Michigan is just 3-4 this season. It took a big hit when one of the top quarterbacks in school history went out with an injury. Alex Carder injured his throwing hand against UConn on September 22nd and has not played since. The Broncos have gone 1-2 without him, losing to Toledo 17-37 and Ball State 24-30. They're lone win during this stretch came against lowly UMass. Carder remains out Saturday.
Kent State is 2-0 at home this season while scoring 43.0 points/game. That's what is most impressive about its 5-1 start is that fact that it has played four road games already. Western Michigan is 0-3 on the road while scoring a mere 18.0 points/game in the process.
The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Golden Flashes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Kent State is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games on fieldturf. The favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Flashes. Roll with Kent State Saturday.
|10-20-12||South Florida +7 v. Louisville||25-27||Win||100||121 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +7
The South Florida Bulls have certainly underachieved this season after coming into the year as one of the favorites to win the Big East. As a result, this team is way undervalued at this point in the season. They are simply catching too many points at Louisville Saturday, and I'll take advantage.
South Florida still has all of its goals in front of them. After dropping four straight games by 13 points or less, its bye week could not have come at a better time. The Bulls have not played since October 6th, so they'll be refocused, reenergized, and ready to go Saturday against a ranked opponent.
Louisville is overvalued right now after its 6-0 start which has put the program in the Top 25. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly easy schedule to this point and there's no way they are as battle-tested as USF, which has played the likes of Florida State, Rutgers and Nevada. Five of the six teams that Louisville has faced have losing records on the season.
South Florida is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. It is winning in this spot 30.1 to 14.9, or by an average of 15.2 points/game. The Bulls will likely win this game outright folks. Bet South Florida Saturday.
|10-20-12||Indiana v. Navy -3.5||30-31||Loss||-105||121 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy -3.5
The Navy Midshipmen have been a completely different team since they made the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds. I look for them to roll at home tonight over the deflated Indiana Hoosiers, who have suffered some painful losses here of late in Big Ten play.
Reynolds entered the game in the second half against Air Force an led Navy to a 28-21 overtime victory on the road. He came back last week against Central Michigan and led the Midshipmen to a 31-13 road win. Reynolds threw three touchdown passes, becoming the first Navy quarterback to do that since 1957. He also rushed for 59 yards as the Midshipmen outgained the Chippewas 372-221.
I look for Reynolds and company to carry their momentum into Saturday's showdown with deflated Indiana. The Hoosiers have lost four straight, including back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined seven points. They were down 18 with four minutes to go against the Buckeyes before making it interesting in garbage time.
Indiana players will suffer a hangover from those heartbreaking losses, and they'll have a hard time getting up for this contest after playing three straight Big Ten games. Plus, this is a terrible match-up for the Hoosiers because they simply cannot stop the run, and they won't be ready for Navy's triple-option attack.
Navy ranks 17th in the country in rushing offense (231.7 yards/game). Indiana ranks 109th in the country against the run (221.2 yards/game), which is easily its biggest weakness. The Hoosiers' strength is a passing offense (313.0 yards/game) that ranks 15th, but Navy's strength defensively is its 21st ranked pass defense (189.2 yards/game).
Indiana is 1-10 ATS after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored since 1992. The Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Midshipmen are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Take Navy Saturday.
|10-20-12||Virginia Tech +9 v. Clemson||17-38||Loss||-117||118 h 43 m||Show|
15* VA Tech/Clemson ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +9
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now due to their slow start. Under Frank Beamer, this has been a very resilient program, and these players will bounce back in a big way Saturday. I believe they can win this game outright at Clemson.
Virginia Tech wants revenge after getting swept in two games against Clemson last season. It lost in the regular season, and then again in the ACC title game. The Hokies have nine defensive starters back from that team, and they will be extremely motivated to shut down this Tigers' offense, which they are obviously very familiar with.
The Hokies can build off of their 41-20 win over Duke last weekend. They could not have started any worse, falling behind 7-20 to the underrated Blue Devils by the end of the 1st quarter. However, they would reel off 34 unanswered points the rest of the way while not allowing Duke to score a single point over the final three quarters. For three quarters, this team finally played up to its potential.
I believe Clemson is one of the most overrated teams in the country as it has played a very weak schedule thus far. The only game it wasn't favor in it lost at Florida State 37-49. This will be the second-toughest game the Tigers have faced all season, and they should not be favored by nine points against a hungry, talented team Saturday.
This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CLEMSON) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|10-19-12||Connecticut v. Syracuse -4||Top||10-40||Win||100||104 h 54 m||Show|
20* UConn/Syracuse Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -4
The Syracuse Orange should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the UConn Huskies. Syracuse is arguably the best 2-4 team in the entire country to this point. It has simply beaten itself time and time again this season, but now has a chance to get back on track at home here tonight.
Despite being 2-4, the Orange have actually outgained five of their first six opponents, but they have lost the turnover battle which has cost them. They outgained Rutgers in a 15-23 loss, Minnesota in a 10-17 loss, Northwestern in a 41-42 loss, and even USC in a 29-42 loss. This team is certainly battle-tested and better than its record.
UConn is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It just hasn't been the same since losing head coach Randy Edsall to Maryland. The Huskies are 3-4 on the season with their only wins coming against UMass, Buffalo and Maryland. They are coming off a 14-17 home loss to Temple last week.
Syracuse will be highly motivated to put an end to its 5-game losing streak in this series. It is favored for a reason here tonight as oddsmakers realize that the Orange are the superior team in 2012 despite their record. They rank 39th in the country in total offense (445.5 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (335.5 yards/game) despite playing a pretty tough schedule.
The Orange are 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. UConn is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Bet Syracuse Friday.
|10-18-12||Oregon v. Arizona State +10||43-21||Loss||-113||81 h 55 m||Show|
15* Oregon/ASU ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Arizona State +10
The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I went against them last week against Colorado as a 23-point favorite, and I'll admit it was the wrong move as they dominated that contest on the road 51-17. I'm not going to make the same mistake again.
Oregon is one of the most overrated teams in the country because it has not played anyone. The Ducks have yet to play a true road games, and their six opponents have been Arkansas State, Fresno State, Tennessee Tech, Arizona, Washington State and Washington. This will be their first true road game, and by far their toughest test of the season.
ASU head coach Todd Graham has these players and these fans believing. He is one of the most underrated coaches in the land, and he turned Tulsa into a power before leaving there. ASU has opened 5-1 with its only loss coming at Missouri. It has played a tougher schedule, which includes a 27-17 road win at Cal, and a 37-7 home victory over Utah.
In fact, the Sun Devils have simply been rolling at home this year. They are 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents 48.3 to 9.0, and outgaining them 525.3 to 259.3. This team ranks 24th in the country in total offense (479.0 yards/game) and 8th in total defense (272.7 yards/game). Oregon is a mediocre 43rd in total defense (359.8 yards/game) despite its cupcake schedule.
The Sun Devils are 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 conference games. ASU is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games. The Sun Devils are 20-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Arizona State Thursday.
|10-18-12||Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7||Top||6-13||Push||0||24 h 34 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -7
The San Francisco 49ers will be highly motivated when they hit the field Thursday. They want to erase the sour tastes out of their mouth from a 3-26 loss to the New York Giants over the weekend. That was the worst they could have possibly played, and they are ready to make up for it in a big way.
The Seattle Seahawks are one of the most overrated teams in the league at this point of the season due to their fortune at home. They are 3-0 at home this season, and shouldn't have beat the Packers or the Patriots. After topping New England last week on a miracle in the closing minutes, the Seahawks are in a big letdown spot here tonight.
Seattle has gone 1-2 on the road this season with losses at Arizona and St. Louis. If it couldn't beat the Cardinals or the Rams away from home, it stands no chance against one of the best teams in the league in the 49ers. This one has blowout written all over it folks.
San Francisco's numbers prove that it is arguably the best team in the NFL. It ranks 1st in total defense (275.8 yards/game) and 7th in total offense (386.7 yards/game). Seattle ranks a woeful 29th in total offense (300.7 yards/game), and it likely won't score more than 10 points against this top-ranked 49ers' defense.
San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. They are beating opponents 22.6 to 10.7 in this spot, or by an average of 11.9 points/game. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West opponents. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet the 49ers Thursday.
|10-16-12||Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5 v. North Texas||Top||23-30||Loss||-113||49 h 39 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They are one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt for good reason, and they're off to a great start in doing so this season.
Lafayette is 4-1 on the season, including 2-0 in Sun Belt play with a 48-20 home win over Florida International, and a 37-24 road win at Troy. Its only loss came on the road against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and its four wins have all come by double-digits.
North Texas is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic. The Mean Green also played Troy, losing at home to the Trojans 7-14. So that's a common opponent between these teams. Lafayette won by 13 at Troy, while North Texas lost by 7 to Troy at home. That games shows how much better the Rajin' Cajuns are than the Mean Green.
Lafayette beat North Texas 30-10 at home last season. With 13 starters back from that team, including nine on offense, I like they chances of pulling off a similar blowout again in 2012. Lafayette has now won five straight meetings in this series.
Lafayette ranks 39th in the country in rushing offense (190.4 yards/game) and 19th in run defense (107.2 yards/game). That makes this an excellent match-up for them because North Texas' strength is their rushing offense (175.2 yards/game), which ranks 50th. Their weakness is a run defense (176.5 yards/game) that ranks 78th. Lafayette's biggest weakness is their pass defense, but the Mean Green only rank 85th in passing offense (206.7 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against a home team (NORTH TEXAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Mean Green are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Louisiana-Lafayette is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games. The Mean Green are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Lafayette is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Rajin' Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Lafayette is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system that has not lost in three years. Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.
|10-15-12||Denver Broncos +1 v. San Diego Chargers||Top||35-24||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +1
After opening 2-3 this season, this is a very important game for the Denver Broncos tonight. They need it more than the 3-2 San Diego Chargers as they do not want to fall two games behind their division rivals.
I believe Denver is the better team this season. It has been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule with the likes of the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Raiders and Patriots. In my opinion, it's the toughest schedule that any team has faced thus far. As a result, the Broncos are battle-tested.
Despite playing such a tough schedule, the Broncos rank 6th in the NFL in total offense (390.0 yards/game) and 13th in total defense (335.2 yards/game). They have been in every game they've played with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. The Chargers are just 24th in total offense (334.8 yards/game) despite playing a soft schedule.
The Chargers don't have a good win yet. Their three victories have come against the Raiders, Chiefs and Titans, three teams with a combined 4-13 record. They were handled in their two games against the Falcons and Saints.
The road team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series over the past three seasons. As you can see, home-field advantage means nothing when these teams get together.
This play falls into a system that is 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN DIEGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|10-14-12||Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. Houston Texans||Top||42-24||Win||100||122 h 25 m||Show|
25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5
The Green Bay Packers are way undervalued right now after their 2-3 start. This team is still every bit as good as it was a year ago when it went 15-1, but so far it just hasn't been able to find a way to win close games. As a result, they are going under the radar, which has provided us with some excellent line value here.
The Houston Texans are way overvalued after their 5-0 start. Sure, I picked the Texans to win the Super Bowl this season, but I know when to fade them and this is certainly the week to do so. Houston has benefited from an easy schedule that has featured ZERO teams that have a winning record in the Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Titans and Jets. They are now without 2011 Defensive MVP Brian Cushing for the rest of the season, which is a huge loss.
Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule thus far as it has played only one team that is below .500 heading into Week 6. That was the New Orleans Saints, who are obviously much better than their record would indicate. Two of their three losses have come by three points or less, and the other came against San Francisco, which is the best team in the NFC in my opinion.
After falling to 2-3 on the season, the Packers are looking at this game as a must-win. They will want this game more than the Texans, who can afford a loss right now after their perfect start. I believe the Packers go out and get a this signature win, which will get them right back on track going forward.
This play falls into a system that is 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (GREEN BAY) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a ATS loss. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Mike McCarthy is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of Green Bay. He has never lost in this situation, and I expect him to stay undefeated in this spot tonight. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|10-14-12||New England Patriots -3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks||23-24||Loss||-102||118 h 59 m||Show|
15* Pats/Seahawks NFL Sunday No-Brainer on New England -3.5
The Seattle Seahawks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers Sunday against one of the best teams in the league. Seattle is 2-0 at home this season, but they should really be 1-1 as they lost to the Green Bay Packers 7-12 but got bailed out by a fluke call from the replacement officials on ESPN's Monday Night Football.
Seattle gets put in its place Sunday against a superior team in the New England Patriots. New England is somewhat under the radar due to their 1-2 start that featured two losses by a combined three points. It has responded nicely since, thumping Buffalo on the road 52-28, then topping Denver 31-21 at home last week.
Quietly, the Patriots have gone a very profitable 4-1 ATS as they just continue to cover spreads at an alarming rate. Those two early losses have this team undervalued right now because I believe they are every bit as good as they were a year ago when they made the Super Bowl, and maybe even better despite the record.
The Patriots are as explosive as ever offensively as they rank 1st in the league in total offense (439.4 yards/game) while scoring 33.0 points/game. What's most impressive is that they have found a running game to compliment Brady. New England ranks 3rd in the league in rushing (165.4 yards/game). The stop unit is improved as well as it ranks 19th in total defense (374.4 yards/game) while giving up a respectable 22.6 points/game.
Seattle is not as good as its 3-2 record. The defense is legit, but the offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Tom Brady and company. The Seahawks rank just 27th in the league in total offense (287.2 yards/game) while scoring a mere 17.2 points/game. I look for the Patriots to go no-huddle offensively, which will cause confusion and lead to success against Seattle's defense.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.
The Patriots are 24-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992. New England is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 road games. The Seahawks are 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot 38.0 to 15.0, or by an average of 23.0 points/game. New England is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons, winning 38.0 to 23.1 in this spot, or by an average of 14.9 points/game. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-14-12||St. Louis Rams v. Miami Dolphins -3||Top||14-17||Push||0||115 h 58 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
The Miami Dolphins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this year. They are just 2-3 on the season, but they could easily be 4-1 right now. They have two overtime losses to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals in games they really should have won. Their other loss came to the 5-0 Houston Texans in a game that was tied 3-3 until three turnovers over the final two minutes of the first half turned into 21 Houston points.
I just really like what I see from this Miami team on both sides of the ball. They rank 13th in the league in total offense (373.4 yards/game) behind a balanced attack that averages 135.6 yards/game on the ground and 237.8 yards/game through the air. Ryan Tannehill is the real deal and the QB of the future for this team.
Miami also ranks a respectable 14th in total defense (343.2 yards/game), including 1st against the run (61.4 yards/game). Their weakness is against the pass, but the St. Louis Rams do not have a good passing attack. St. Louis ranks 29th in total offense (278.2 yards/game), including 30th in passing offense (183.4 yards/game).
The Rams are simply overvalued at this point of the season after their 3-2 start. They are getting outgained by 57.2 yards/game this season, which is the sign of a 2-3 or 1-4 team rather than one with a winning record.
St. Louis is now without Danny Amendola to a collarbone injury, which is huge considering he's by far Sam Bradford's favorite target. Amendola has 32 receptions for 395 yards this season, and the No. 2 option is Brandon Gibson with only 13 receptions for 184 yards through five games. Bradford is going to miss Amendola greatly.
The Rams are 0-2 on the road this season as all of their wins have come at home. They are getting outscored 14.5 to 25.0 on the road, or by an average of 10.5 points/game to the likes of Detroit and Chicago.
This play falls into a system that is 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against any team (ST LOUIS) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season.
The Dolphins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. in its last 9 a team with a winning record. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-13-12||Tennessee v. Mississippi State -2.5||31-41||Win||100||58 h 41 m||Show|
15* Tennessee/Mississippi State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Mississippi State -2.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a much better team than they are getting credit for with this line set by oddsmakers Saturday. They should be a heavier favorite against the Tennessee Volunteers.
At 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the country, this is easily the best team that head coach Dan Mullen has had in his time at Mississippi State. I believe they should be ranked even higher, but after another win Saturday they'll move up quite a bit. They are highly motivated to put an end to their 6-game losing streak to the Vols in this series.
Tennessee is just 3-2 on the season, and it's easy to see that this team isn't ready to take the next step under head coach Derek Dooley. The Vols had their chances to prove they were for real, but they lost 20-37 at home to Florida, and 44-51 on the road to Georgia. Their three wins have come against Akron, Georgia State and NC State, which is unimpressive to say the least.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 38.0 to 9.7 on average. That includes a 28-10 win over Auburn as only a 3-point favorite. I like the match-up here as Tennessee has a great passing game, but Mississippi State counters that with the 30th ranked pass defense (199.6 yards/game) in the country.
I also like the match-up for Mississippi State on offense. They have a balanced attack that is averaging 179.0 yards on the ground and 225.6 through the air. They'll be up against a Tennessee team that ranks just 83rd in the country in total defense (425.8 yards/game), giving up 186.2 yards on the ground and 239.6 through the air.
The Volunteers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a ATS win. The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 conference games. These five trends combine for a 25-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.
|10-13-12||Texas A&M -7.5 v. Louisiana Tech||59-57||Loss||-103||58 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -7.5
The Texas A&M Aggies are the superior team in this contest with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. While Texas A&M is ranked No. 22 in the country and LA Tech is No. 23, these teams couldn't be further apart talent-wise, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Texas A&M really should be 5-0 as its only loss came by three points against Florida 17-20 after blowing a 17-10 halftime lead. The Aggies have responded nicely since that loss, winning four straight, including three in a row by 45 or more points.
Texas A&M is coming off a nice 30-27 road win at Ole Miss in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Aggies overcame six turnovers while gaining 481 yards of total offense in the win. Without those turnovers, it would have been a lot more lopsided results. I look for the Aggies to focus on taking care of the football this week.
Louisiana Tech is a solid team at 5-0 this season, but it really hasn't played anybody near the caliber of Texas A&M. Its five wins have come against Houston, Rice, Illinois, Virginia and UNLV. While the Bulldogs have been explosive offensively, they have been atrocious defensively against a soft schedule, and I look for the Aggies to exploit that.
The Aggies rank 12th in the country in total offense (516.8 yards/game) while scoring 44.6 points/game. They'll be up against a Louisiana Tech defense that ranks 116th in the country (531.0 yards/game) while giving up 35.8 points/game.
Texas A&M actually has a solid defense, which will be be the difference in this contest. The Aggies rank 43rd in the FBS in total defense (363.6 yards/game) while allowing just 14.8 points/game.
Texas A&M is 10-0 all-time against Louisiana Tech, winning by an average score of 42-12. I look for this program dominance to continue as the Bulldogs are simply overmatched in this one talent-wise. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
|10-13-12||South Carolina v. LSU -2.5||Top||21-23||Loss||-113||57 h 42 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -2.5
Public perception is way too high on the South Carolina Gamecocks right now after their huge home win over Georgia last Saturday. As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line much lower than it should be.
Public perception is down on LSU right now due to its road loss at Florida. I really don't believe that was that bad of a loss as the Gators are much better than they get credit for. LSU returns home Saturday with all of their goals still ahead of them as they control their own destiny in getting back to the SEC title game if they win out.
South Carolina is a quality team with a great defense, but it really has not been tested on the road. It has road wins over Vanderbilt (17-13) and Kentucky (38-17), which are two of the worst teams in the SEC. It will be tested in Baton Rouge Saturday against an amped up LSU team looking to take out its frustration on the Gamecocks.
This play falls into a system that is 56-23 (70.9%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season.
LSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 after playing a game where 20 total points or less were scored. It is winning in this spot by an average of 28.7 points/game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|10-13-12||Buffalo +13.5 v. Northern Illinois||3-45||Loss||-102||52 h 11 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +13.5
The Buffalo Bulls should not be catching two touchdowns against the Northern Illinois Huskies Saturday. Buffalo is off to a 1-4 start, but this team is much better than its record would indicate, and that's why the Bulls are showing such great value here.
The Bulls have only had one bad game thus far. Three of their losses came on the road against very good teams. They lost at Georgia 23-45 as a 37.5-point underdog, at UConn 17-24 as a 16.5-point dog, and at Ohio 31-38 as a 14.5-point dog. This team has played its best football away from home.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued after five straight wins since losing to Iowa to open the season. This team has played a cake-walk schedule, beatting Tennessee-Martin, Kansas and Central Michigan at home, while also topping Army and Ball State on the road. Only two of those five wins came by more than 12 points.
Buffalo has 15 starters back from a team that lost 30-31 at home to Northern Illinois as a 14-point underdog last season. They outgained NIU 572-328 in that game, but committed five turnovers which really did them in. The Huskies only have 12 starters back from that team. There's no question that the Bulls want serious revenge from that one-point loss, and they easily could pull off this upset. Take Buffalo Saturday.
|10-13-12||Kansas State v. Iowa State +7||27-21||Win||100||49 h 40 m||Show|
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +7
The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the most underrated teams in the country ever since Paul Rhoads took over as head coach. They have had a knack for pulling off the upset. They beat then-No. 2 Oklahoma State 37-31 at home in overtime last year to prevent the Cowboys from playing in the National Championship.
Iowa State went on the road and handled then-No. 15 TCU 37-23 last week. I look for the Cyclones to give No. 6 Kansas State a run for its money Saturday at home. The Wildcats have been underrated for much of the season, but this team is way overvalued now that it is ranked inside the Top 10.
These are two teams that play very similar styles, which favors the home underdog. Both like to run the football and play smash mouth defense while trying to force turnovers at all times. Each relies on winning the turnover battle and not beating themselves. Both squads are very physical as well.
This is a trap game for the Wildcats as they will be looking ahead to a showdown with current No. 5 West Virginia next week. Iowa State will be focused as it wants revenge from a 23-30 loss at Kansas State last season as a 10-point underdog. The Cyclones outgained the Wildcats 368-359, but committed two more turnovers than K-State, which proved to be the difference.
Kansas State has now beaten Iowa State by a touchdown or less in four straight meetings. You can bet that the Cyclones want revenge after such a painful streak of losses to the Wildcats over the last four years. This rematch will likely be decided by a touchdown or less again, but this time in Iowa State's favor.
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|10-12-12||Navy v. Central Michigan OVER 59||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||73 h 28 m||Show|
20* Navy/Central Michigan ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59
This contest has the makings of a shootout Friday night. I look for a similar final score to the 38-37 Navy victory when these teams met last in 2010. Navy rushed for 437 yards in the win, while Central Michigan threw for 394 yards in the loss.
I fully expect Navy to be able to move the ball at will on the ground in this one. Central Michigan ranks 95th in the country in total defense (457.6 yards/game), including 111th against the run (233.2 yards/game). They are giving up 5.8 yards/carry.
Navy ranks 16th in rush offense (230.4 yards/game). Playing on a short week is a huge disadvantage for the Chippewas' defense in trying to prepare for Navy's triple-option attack. This is a defense that has given up a combined 105 points the past two weeks in losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo.
Central Michigan has been moving the ball well through the air this season as it ranks 44th in pass offense (257.2 yards/game). Ryan Radcliff has thrown for 1,286 yards and nine touchdowns to six interceptions on the season. I look for Radcliff to have a big game against a Navy defense that is allowing 67.7 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks.
The Chippewas are 10-1 to the OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 18-6-2 in Chippewas last 26 non-conference games. The OVER is 9-2 in Chippewas last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.