20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7

The Tennessee Titans continue getting zero respect from oddsmakers despite their 6-3 start that has included four straight wins coming into this game against Pittsburgh Thursday night.  They failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Bengals by 108 yards and racked up 416 total yards in the win.

The Steelers have also won four straight coming in, but they continue to get a lot of love from the betting public and oddsmakers, unlike Tennessee.  They aren't getting docked at all for their ugly 20-17 win over the Colts last week as 10.5-point favorites.  The Colts actually led that game 17-3 and arguably should have won despite not having top receiver TY Hilton and missing several key players on defense.

At 7-2 on the season, the Steelers have a three-game lead over second-place Baltimore (4-5) in the AFC North.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency because of it, and that showed last week against the Colts.  Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a first-place tie with Jacksonville (also 6-3) and cannot afford to take the foot off the gas.

It's nice to see Marcus Mariota back fully healthy now after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year that forced him to miss most of two games.  The Titans are 6-1 in games that Mariota starts and finishes this season.  He threw for 264 yards and rushed for 51 more on six carries last week against Cincinnati, proving that his hamstring issues are a thing of the past.

The Titans have been remarkably healthy otherwise, which has been a key to their success.  The Steelers had been healthy up until last week.  But they are going to be without two key players in their secondary due to injury moving forward.  Safety Mike Mitchell suffered an ankle injury against the Colts and is doubtful, while CB Joe Haden broke his leg against the Colts and is likeley out for the season.  James Harrison is also dealing with a back injury that forced him to miss the Indianapolis game.  Mariota should find plenty of success through the air against the Steelers this week.

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - off two consecutive home wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off two consecutive home wins.  They are winning these games by 9.7 points per game on average.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

15* Buffalo/Ball State MAC Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo -20.5

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate, and that is evident with their impressive 8-2 ATS record this season.  They have suffered three losses by a combined 5 points in conference play, so they have just had terrible luck in close games.

Fortunately, this game will not be close.  That's because Ball State has been the punching bags of the MAC this season.  The Cardinals have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in MAC play, getting outscored by a ridiculous 42.8 points per game in the process.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and giving up 53.2 per game in conference play.  Off six straight losses by 28 or more points, the Cardinals just want this nightmare of a season to be over.

Conversely, Buffalo still has a lot to play for.  The Bulls can still make a bowl game if they win their last two games.  They have a tough one up next, but they get Ohio at home, and Ohio proved beatable with a loss at Akron on Tuesday of this week.  I think the Bulls are good enough to beat Ohio and have the confidence to do so.  But first they know they need to take care of business against Ball State this week.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's not surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  Jackson really looked like himself last week, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.

The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Ball State is 1-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  Fading Ball State is the gift that keeps on giving, and we'll take advantage this week.  Take Buffalo Thursday.v

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Ohio -3

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are prepared for this situation.  Just last year, they started 0-6 before winning their final six games to get bowl eligible.  They were expected to compete for a MAC title with all they had returning in 17 starters and a ton of talent, but this season hasn't gone the way they wanted, mainly due to an injury to QB Gus Ragland and some bad breaks in close games early.

But here they were again this season, sitting at 3-6 and needing to win their final three games to make the postseason.  Ragland returned from injury last week and led the Redhawks to a 24-14 home win over Akron.  The Redhawks outgained the Zips by 147 yards.  Ragland threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns to lead them to victory.

So now they are just two wins away from getting back to the postseason.  They play the worst team in the MAC in Ball State next week, so they will get in if they win this game.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight, and I look for them to get the job done in blowout fashion in what should be their best effort of the season.

Eastern Michigan has had a hard-luck season with close loss after close loss.  The final straw was last week when they lost 30-42 at Central Michigan while self-destructing with five turnovers.  The Eagles are now 3-7 on the season and cannot make a bowl game, so I really question their motivation this week.  I don't expect them to show up at all.

Just looking at Miami's numbers this season it's easy to see that they are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have actually outgained eight of their 10 opponents this season.  The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards by Notre Dame and by 70 by Cincinnati.  Miami is outgaining teams by 42 yards per game on the season, including by 66 yards per game in conference play.  That is the sign of a good team and one that should be better than 4-6 right now.

Miami has won nine straight meetings with Eastern Michigan with six of those victories coming by double-digits.  The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Plays on any team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (140 to 190 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game), after allowing 2.0 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 69-33 (67.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10

The Miami Dolphins should not be catching double-digits against the Carolina Panthers Monday night.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Dolphins in what will be a closer game than the books anticipate.  This is clearly a 'buy low, sell high' situation that I like.

We'll 'buy low' on the Dolphins, who have lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 on the season.  That includes their misleading 40-0 loss in Baltimore two weeks ago in which the Ravens scored two non-offensive touchdowns and only managed 295 total yards despite.  Then they played well last week, but came up short in a 24-27 home loss to the Raiders.

Jay Cutler clearly showed against the Raiders that he was healthy.  He completed 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Of course, it was a bonus that he got a healthy DeVante Parker back in the lineup.  Parker hadn't been healthy since Week 4.  He contributed five catches for 76 yards in the loss.  His presence will help open things up underneath the rest of the way for guys like Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, who both had receiving touchdowns against the Raiders.  Both running backs Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams also finished with six receptions apiece to show their versatility in the absence of the traded Jay Ajayi.

It was really nice to see the Dolphins come through with one of their best offensive outputs of the season, because this team already has a very good defense.  Indeed, the Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 315.4 yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, giving up only 94 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop a Carolina team that wants to run first and pass second.

We'll 'sell high' on the Panthers, who have won two in a row since their ugly 3-17 loss to Chicago.  Everyone is quick to forget about that loss because they won 17-3 in Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta 20-17 at home the past two weeks, respectively.  That win over the Bucs doesn't look as good now, and Julio Jones dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have given the Falcons the win last week.  The Panthers are extremely overrated now as they will be the biggest favorites they have been all season this week.

I just don't trust this Carolina offense to put up enough points to be able to cover a double-digit spread.  The Panthers rank 24th in scoring offense (18.7 PPG), 21st in total offense (313.1 YPG) and 26th in offensive yards per play (4.8).  Those aren't the kind of numbers you would expect from a team behing asked to lay double-digits.

Carolina does have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Panthers have been great against the run, but that won't be much a factor here because the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL already.  The Dolphins are going to rely on Cutler to move the ball through the air, and the weakness of the Panthers is their secondary.  They give up 64.9% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  I think Cutler will have enough success to keep this game close, especially with a weapon like Parker healthy and back in the lineup.

And after beating back-to-back division rivals in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Panthers.  Plays against any team (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 76-32 (70.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1983.

And he's another system that shows it's a good idea to buy low on teams who have failed recently against the spread by big margins.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5

What more to the Indianapolis Colts have to do to get any respect from oddsmakers and the betting public?  I'm not sure, but I'll take advantage and back them as double-digit home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.  They should not be getting this many points with how well they are playing right now.

No team is playing harder than the Colts right now.  Two weeks ago, they went into Cincinnati as 11-point dogs and only lost 23-24 after a pick-6 by the Bengals in the fourth quarter.  They only gave up 276 total yards to the Bengals and outgained them by 55 yards.  Then last week they won 20-14 in Houston as 6-point dogs and outgained them by 83 yards, limiting the Texans to just 288 total yards.

Jacoby Brissett is proving that it was the right move for the Colts to trade for him.  The Colts have scored 20 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  He is really utilizing TE Jack Toyle and star WR T.Y. Hilton, and the two-headed attack of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack is producing week in and week out in the backfield.

Pittsburgh is getting massive love from the betting public and oddsmakers now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati were impressive, but the 20-15 win in Detroit was very fortunate.  The Lions amassed 488 total yards on their defense, but went 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  It was the third-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown.

Sure, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, which is usually worth a couple points to the spread.  But bye weeks can come at bad times for teams.  And I think that's the case with the Steelers here.  They were playing well and had a ton of momentum.  Now they've been feeling fat and happy for two weeks straight, and don't be surprised if they come out sluggish.  Plus, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye, so Mike Tomlin clearly hasn't been pushing the right buttons.

Indianapolis is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games over the past three seasons.  Pittsburgh is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games after covering the spread in four of its last five games coming in.  Chuck Pagano is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games.  Indianapolis is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Now we're getting to back a great Minnesota Vikings team that is one of the best squads in the NFC as only 1-point favorites against the Washington Redskins in this spot.  The Vikings have gone 6-2 this season.  Their two losses came 9-26 in Pittsburgh in Case Keenum's first start, and 7-14 at home to Detroit in a game they should have won by lost the turnover battle 3-0.  The Vikings have been rolling since.

Indeed, they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since.  They beat the Bears 20-17 on the road, came back home and clocked Green Bay 23-10 as 3-point dogs, thumped Baltimore 24-16 as 5-point home favorites, and won 33-16 in London over Cleveland as 11-point favorites.

This isn't a fluky 6-2 start, either.  The Vikings have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 358 yards per game offensively and giving up only 282 yards per game defensively with one of the top stop units in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game, which is one of the best yardage differentials in the NFL.

The Redskins are in a tough spot here.  They had to travel all the way out West to face the Seahawks last week, and actually pulled off the 17-14 upset as 8-point dogs.  Now they had to travel clear back East.  And that win was about as fluky as you'll ever see.  The Redskins only managed 244 total yards while giving up 437, getting outgained by 193 yards by the Seahawks.  Seattle kicker Blair Walsh went 0-3 on field goals, hooking all three to the left.

A big reason I was on Seattle last week was because Washington's injury report was massive.  The Redskins were without four starters on the offensive line, several starters in their defensive front 7, plus leading receiver Jamison Crowder.  Surely, the Redskins will get back a few players this week, but the fact of the matter is that their injury report couldn't be much worse right now.  They aren't going to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against an elite team like the Vikings this week.  And Minnesota's nasty defensive line will dominate that banged-up Washington offensive line, which will be the difference in this game.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  Essentially, the Vikings have been massively underrated ever since Mike Zimmer took over.  The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week.  Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries.  Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.

While the Browns are off their bye, the Detroit Lions will be working on a short week after beating the Packers 30-17 on the road on Monday Night Football.  It was a huge win for them as they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings in Green Bay.  They exorcised their demons with that win, and now it would only be human nature for them to suffer an emotional letdown the next week.  That's especially the case with the 0-8 Cleveland Browns coming to town.

It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites.  That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next.  We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.

We saw last year that the Browns did not quit down the stretch.  They were fighting tooth and nail to try and win games, and I think that will be the case again this season.  They have more talent this season and this is still a very young roster, and young teams really benefit from bye weeks.  I expect the best effort of the season from the Browns this week.

Cleveland is 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in at least half of their games.  And most of their losses have been misleading.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents, and they have only been outgained by 100 yards or more one time all season.  They are only getting outgained by 12.3 yards per game on the season.  They have an underrated defense that is giving up just 313 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this year, ranking 9th in total defense and 8th in yards per play defense.

Yards per play average is one of the best stats you can use to handicap how good an NFL team is.  Well, Detroit doesn't look very good in either department.  The Lions rank 20th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (5.1) and 25th in defensive yards per play (5.6).  They are gettng outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  That's not the type of team that should be laying 13 points to anyone, especially a team like the Browns off their bye week.  The Browns are getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play for comparison's sake.

Detroit is 28-51 ATS in its last 79 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit road win.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  The value on the winless Browns is simply too good to pass up this week in this situation.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores sit at 4-5 on the season and in need of two wins in their final three games to make a bowl game.  They still have home games against Kentucky and Missouri, as well as a trip to Tennessee to close out the season, so the outlook is very good for the Commodores.  Look for a big effort from them this week.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 in non-conference play and 0-5 in SEC play, so it will also be motivated for its first conference win.  But this has been a brutal schedule as the Commodores have already had to face Alabama and Georgia at home, as well as Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road.  So this game against Kentucky at home is their most winnable SEC game yet, and I look for them to take advantage.

Kentucky is 6-3 this season, but it's a bit of a fraudulent 6-3.  All six wins have come by 11 points or less, including four by 7 or fewer, so the Wildcats have simply had good fortune in close games.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakes because they have the better record here, but I don't think they are the better team at all.  They have only had to play three road games all season, and one resulted in a 7-45 loss at Mississippi State.

This is an awful spot for the Wildcats.  Once they opened 6-2 they relaxed and lost at home 34-37 to an Ole Miss team that is in turmoil right now and playing a backup quarterback.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against No. 1 ranked Georgia.  I think they'll be looking ahead to that game and won't give Vanderbilt the focus and attention they deserve this week.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Kentucky hasn't won at Vanderbilt since 2009, while the Commodores have gone 3-0 in their last three home meetings with the Wildcats, winning by 4, 16 and 30 points.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Kentucky is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Kentucky is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Commodores.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Georgia/Auburn CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Auburn +3

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 10 ranked team in the country right now despite having two losses.  That's because neither loss was bad as they both came on the road to fellow ranked opponents Clemson and LSU.  They only lost 14-6 at Clemson in the opener, and blew a 20-0 lead to lose 23-27 at LSU.  All seven of their wins have come by 14 points or more, including home wins over Mississippi State (49-10) and Ole Miss (44-23), as well as road wins over Missouri (51-14), Arkansas (52-20) and Texas A&M (42-27).

The SEC is the only conference that could get a team with two losses to the four-team playoff.  And Auburn is a very strong candidate to be that team, because they are going to have a chance to pick up three huge wins down the stretch.  They host Georgia this week and then host Alabama in their regular season finale.  If they can win those two games, they would get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship.  That would give them three straight wins against Top 10 opponents, and the playoff committee wouldn't be able to keep them out.  So the Tigers still have everything to play for and these are must-win games from here on out.

Georgia, on the other hand, is 9-0 on the season.  The Bulldogs could afford to lose this game to Auburn and still make the four-team playoff if they beat the SEC West champ in the SEC Championship Game.  And with that No. 1 ranking in the playoffs right now comes added pressure and expectations that I don't think the Bulldogs can live up to.  I faded them last week and took South Carolina +25.5 in a comfortable cover with a 10-24 loss at Georgia.  And now the Bulldogs are favored by a field goal on the road against an Auburn team that I believe is close to their equal.  But the 9-0 record and No. 1 ranking has Georgia overvalued, while the 7-2 record and two narrow losses has Auburn undervalued right now.

The numbers also show that these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  Georgia is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.9 points per game and outgaining them by 192 yards per game and 2.6 per play.  Auburn is outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game and outgaining them by 158 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play.  And it's worth noting that Georgia has played five home games and only three true road games, while Auburn has played five true road games and only four home games.  The 20-19 win at Notre Dame was impressive, but Auburn is every bit as good as Notre Dame.  The two other two road wins came at Tennessee and Vanderbilt, two of the worst teams in the SEC.

Auburn wants revenge from three straight losses to Georgia, including two by a touchdown or less the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Auburn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game.  I think the Tigers pull off the 'upset' here at Jordan-Hare Stadium this afternoon.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +3

Virginia Tech's most important game was last week in a showdown at Miami with the Coastal Division title essentially on the line.  The Hokies laid a complete egg and were never really even competitive, losing 28-10 while getting outgained by 130 yards.  That was the type of dream-crushing loss that will be hard for them to get back up off the mat from.  Look for the Hokies to be flat against Georgia Tech this week.

The Yellow Jackets are just 4-4 on the season and need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible.  They still have to play Georgia in the season finale, so their two most winnable games are this week against Virginia Tech and next week at Duke.  Look for them to be treating this like a must-win and for them to put a big effort forth here.

Georgia Tech is much better than that 4-4 record would indicate.  The Yellow Jackets have outgained six of their eight opponents.  But they have suffered 3 losses by 1, 1 and 4 points, which is how close they are to being 7-1 right now.  The only exception was a 14-point loss at Clemson where the Tigers were coming off a bye and a loss to Syracuse, so it was an awful spot, and the Yellow Jackets were still competitive in that 10-24 defeat as 14-point dogs.

The Yellow Jackets have been a thorn in Virginia Tech's side in recent seasons.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets have only lost to the Hokies by more than a field goal one time in the last seven meetings.  The Yellow Jackets pulled off two outright upsets during this five-year stretch, including last season's 30-20 road win as 14-point underdogs.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The one constant for Georgia Tech has been its dominant at home this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game in the process.  This team has been an undervalued commodity for two straight seasons, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  I expect the Yellow Jackets to win this game outright.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +16.5

The Michigan State Spartans just cannot get any respect from oddsmakers despite the season they are having.  They are 7-2 and in prime position to win the Big Ten.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents, and even outgained Notre Dame by 141 yards in misleading 18-38 loss.  Their other loss came in triple-overtime at Northwestern 31-38 in a game where they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  

The only game the Spartans were outgained in all season was their 14-10 win at Michigan in which they were outgained by only 48 yards.  Just looking at the numbers, it's easy to see that Michigan State is an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 99 yards per game on the season.

The Spartans are always one of the best teams in the country to bet in the underdog role.  Indeed, the Spartans have gone 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 14 OUTRIGHT UPSETS, including outright upsets against both Penn State and Michigan as double-digit underdogs this season.

Mark Dantonio has had Urban Meyer's number in recent seasons.  They have split the last six meetings 3-3 with the Spartans going 4-2 ATS in those games.  They were 20.5-point home dogs last year and only lost 17-16.  They pulled the 17-14 upset as 14.5-point road dogs in 2015.  They only lost by 12 at home in 2014, upset the Buckeyes 34-24 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2013, only lost 17-16 in 2012, and won 10-7 as 3-point road dogs in 2011.  As you can see, each of the last six meetings were decided by 12 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.

I question Ohio State's motivation this week after a crushing 55-24 loss at Iowa last week as 21-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 52 points.  And now they're being asked to lay over two touchdowns to a better Michigan State team that pretty much handled Iowa.  And Ohio State has not played well in all three of its step up against against Oklahoma, Penn State and Iowa.  They lost two of those three, and needed a huge comeback in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 at home.

With two losses on the season now, the Buckeyes will not be going to the four-team playoff.  That was their goal coming into the season, and now that goal is shot.  I just don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to beat Michigan State, let alone beat the Spartans by more than two touchdowns.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after having won four out of their last five games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3

The turnaround at Boston College this season has been one of the best stories in all of college football.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won four of their last five with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech.  And this team just keeps getting better and better as their last three performances were the most eye-opening.

Boston College won 45-42 at Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs.  They matched the Cardinals score for score and racked up 555 total yards in the win.  They then went on the road and beat Virginia 41-10 as 7-point underdogs.  They amassed 512 total yards while limiting the Cavaliers to 247, outgaining them by 265 yards.  Then they crushed Florida State 35-3 as 6-point home dogs, limiting the Seminoles to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Now the Eagles have had a bye week to get ready for NC State.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team and this couldn't be a worse spot for the NC State Wolfpack.

Two weeks ago, NC State went into Notre Dame and lost 35-14.  That loss really hurt any chances of winning a national title.  But the ACC was still up for grabs against Clemson last week.  The Wolfpack fought extremely hard, but the Tigers won that game 38-31 and simply made more plays down the stretch.  They had the Clemson game circled all offseason after losing in overtime to them last year.  

Now, with that loss comes the realization that winning the ACC is no longer an option, and I think the Wolfpack will find it hard to get back up off the mat this week in time to face Boston College.  I also question how much NC State has left in the tank after playing those two physical shootouts, especially defensively.  They gave up 318 rushing yards to Notre Dame and 224 to Clemson.

Now they have to face an Eagles team that is averaging 40 points per game in their last three while putting up 243.8 rushing yards per game in their last five.  Freshman quarterback Anthony Brown has been virtually unstoppable, and the bye week will only help him get better and build off of what he has been doing in recent weeks.  And this BC defense is still one of the better units in the conference, giving up just 24.8 points, 398 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season, including 24.3, 384.5 and 5.3 in ACC play.

Boston College has had NC State's number in recent seasons, too.  The Eagles are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings, including their 21-14 upset road win as 16-point dogs last year.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston College.

NC State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Plays against road favorites (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +7

2017 was the first time in a long time that the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wasn't played in the final week of the regular season.  The Big 12 made the switch and moved the game up this year with the thought that it would be possible that these teams who have to play two weeks in a row in the Big 12 Championship if they didn't move it.  It's the first year of the Big 12 Championship since the conference dropped down to 10 teams.

It was a wildly entertaining Bedlam Series with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State 62-52.  The Cowboys had the ball with a chance to win at the end, but the Sooners got a rare stop and tacked on a meaningless touchdown in the closing seconds when they could have just ran out the clock.  It was kind of the De Facto title game with the loser eliminated from Big 12 title contention.

Now I really question Oklahoma State's motivation.  This is a team with not only Big 12 Championship hopes, but also national title hopes coming into the season.  But after losing to both TCU and Oklahoma at home, those dreams are crushed now.  I think the Cowboys fail to get back up off the mat this week against Iowa State.

Speaking of Oklahoma and TCU, those are two common opponents of Iowa State.  The Cyclones beat the Sooners 38-31 on the road, and the Horned Frogs 14-7 at home.  The Cowboys lost to both by double-digits at home.  And because the Cyclones won both those games, they have the tiebreaker over those two teams.  So if they win out, they will be going to the Big 12 Championship.  

That's a very realistic possibility because after playing Oklahoma State at home this week, the Cyclones have very winnable games against both Baylor and Kansas State to close out the season.  So I have no doubt the Cyclones are going to be highly motivated in this game given their season outlook and what they can still accomplish.

The Cyclones lost to Texas 17-7 earlier this season, and then made the switch at quarterback.  They have been rolling since.  After beating TCU, they did lost 20-16 at West Virginia last week.  It was a clear letdown spot for them.  They didn't show up in the first half and trailed 20-0 in that game.  But they showed tremendous fight and actually had a chance to win it in the end, shutting out the Mountaineers the rest of the way but falling just short by a 16-20 final.

The Cyclones have the second-best defense in the Big 12 behind only TCU.  They are giving up just 14.7 points, 349.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which is giving up 34.2 points, 442.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play in Big 12 action, and you can see which team has the better defense here, and it's not even close.  And we're getting a full touchdown with the better defense, the more motivated team, and the home team here.  It's a tremendous value.

Oklahoma State does have a high-powered offense, but that offense may take a hit this week if they are without leading receiver James Washington, who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma.  Washington has caught 52 balls for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 21.8 yards per reception.  And Iowa State's 3-3-5 defensive scheme has mystified the Big 12 this season as they aren't allowing big plays and keeping everything in front of them.  That scheme matches up very well with the Cowboys, who rely almost exclusively on the deep ball to try and move the ball through the air.

Iowa State wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma State, including two narrow losses the past two seasons.  The Cyclones lost 35-31 at home as 11.5-point dogs in 2015 after blowing a 31-21 lead in the fourth quarter.  They lost 31-38 on the road as 14-point dogs last year, again blowing a 31-24 lead in the fourth quarter.  I think they get their revenge this year and likely pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on a grass field.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.  Plays against road favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.  I don't think the Cowboys even show up this week after losing to Oklahoma.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back devastating losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  They blew a big lead and lost 39-38 to the Buckeyes two weeks ago.  They came back the next week and lost on a last-second field goal to Michigan State 24-27.

I really question how they'll bounce back mentally knowing that their dreams of winning the Big Ten and a national title are now crushed.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 31 points to an upstart Rutgers team that will be excited to play a nationally ranked foe.  I have no question the Scarlet Knights will be the more motivated team and will out-hit the Nittany Lions this week.

Clearly Penn State's defense can be moved on.  The Nittany Lions gave up 529 total yards to Ohio State and 474 to Michigan State.  Rutgers should find enough success on the ground and through the air to put up a couple touchdowns or more, which is all they'll need to cover this lofty number because their defense is underrated.

Rutgers is feeling good after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Scarlet Knights pulled the 35-24 upset at Illinois, upset Purdue 14-12 as 7.5-point home dogs, lost by 21 at Michigan as 21.5-point dogs, and upset Maryland 31-24 at home as 3-point dogs.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

This Rutgers defense is giving up just 24.9 points and 394 total yards per game this season.  That's where the biggest improvement has come from this team.  And the offense is taking care of the football, which will be key to keeping this game close against Penn State.  The Scarlet Knights have only committed two total turnovers in their last three games combined.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons, only winning 25.4 to 25.1 on average in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 0-8 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Rutgers.

James Franklin has been a front-runner when things have gone good, but he hasn't had that same magic touch when things are going bad.  I look for them to continue to go bad for Penn State this week off those two crushing losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* Temple/Cincinnati AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +3

The Cincinnati Bearcats are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  First-year head coach Luke Fickell has done a tremendous job of making this team competitive.  And I certainly like the outlook of this team moving forward from a mental standpoint.

The Bearcats realize that getting to a bowl game is still a great possibility.  That's because after hosting Temple on Friday, they finish the season with two games against the two worst teams in the AAC in East Carolina and Connecticut.  They have been through the gauntlet of their AAC schedule, already facing Navy, UCF, South Florida, SMU and Tulane.  Temple has already faced both ECU and UConn, actually losing at home to the Huskies 24-28 despite being 10.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati outgained Tulane by 128 yards last week in a very good 17-16 road victory.  The game before, the Bearcats outgained SMU by 3 yards but lost 28-31 in overtime.  They weren't overmatched by USF and UCF despite the lopsided scores. They were only outgained by 124 yards by UCF and by 129 yards by USF.  They were only outgained by 17 yards by Marshall in another misleading final the game before.  They only lost 32-42 at Navy the game before, and beat Miami Ohio 21-17 on the road the week before.  So they have essentially been competitive in seven straight games, at least from a statistical standpoint.

This is kind of a sandwich spot for Temple.  The Owls are coming off a huge 34-26 upset home win over Navy last week, and now they have a home game on deck against undefeated and nationally ranked UCF next week.  Don't be surprised if the Owls are looking ahead to that game, and feeling a little too good about their win against Navy to give Cincinnati the attention it deserves this week.

The Owls have been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-3 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Of course, their 34-10 win at East Carolina is making their numbers look better than they really are.  They lost 16-49 at Notre Dame, 7-43 at USF and 28-31 at Army.

Plays on home teams (CINCINNATI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games off a win.  The Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5

This is the 'game of the year' for the Arizona Cardinals.  Sitting at 4-4 on the season, they trail the 5-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams within their own division.  So if they want any shot of making the playoffs, they have to win this game Thursday night.  That's why I'm expecting a big effort from them here.

I also like the fact that the Cardinals are the fresher team.  They had their bye two weeks ago, then didn't need to exert much effort to dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 20-10.  And playing on a short week in these Thursday night games is a big advantage for home teams.  They had the shorter trip from Santa Clara to Arizona, while Seattle is going to have the much further flight.

The Cardinals are also the healthier team.  Yes, they had two key injuries to David Johnson and Carson Palmer, but aside from those they are relatively healthy.  And the Palmer loss clearly isn't as big as most think.  They weren't playing all that great offensively with him before he got hurt, and Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians favorite who is one of the better backups in the NFL.  And Adrian Peterson has shown he has plenty left in the tank, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, including 159 against the 49ers last week.

Conversely, Seattle's injury report looks awful.  Both Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane were missing in the secondary last week, and the Redskins went 70 yards for the game-winning drive in a 17-14 upset victory over the Seahawks in the closing seconds last week.  Other key defenders missing include Sheldon Richardson, DJ Alexander, Marcus Smith and Cliff Avril.  And that was an awful loss to the Redskins considering they were missing four starters on the offensive line and several other key players elsewhere.

Offensively, the Seahawks could be without WR Tyler Lockett, who injured his shoulder.  They also have key injuries in the backfield with Eddy Lacy and C.J. Prosise unlikely to be available.  Russell Wilson is the team's leading rusher at 34 yards per game this season.  And their offensive line played terrible against a banged-up Washington defense as Wilson was running for his life the entire game.  They only managed 14 points on that soft Washington defense, and have been held to 16 or fewer in four of their eight games this year.

Arizona had had Seattle's number the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-1-1 straight up in the last four meetings.  Arizona won 34-31 in Seattle as 9-point dogs last year.  That made up for their 6-6 tie at home in which they dominated the Seahawks but could only get a tie.  The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks 443 to 257 in that tie game.

Arizona is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 home games vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Toledo/Ohio MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Toledo -3.5

At 8-1 on the season and just outside the Top 25, the Toledo Rockets feel like they are still very much alive to be that Group of 5 team invited to a big bowl game.  They trail both UCF and Memphis, but only slightly, and both of those teams have some big games upcoming.

Toledo will be favored in the rest of its games and has an excellent shot of finishing 12-1 if it wins the MAC Title game.  With such big goals still in front of them, I expect a big effort from the Rockets here despite the fact that they beat Northern Illinois last week and likely locked up their bid into the MAC Championship.  They want more.

Ohio, on the other hand, is 4-1 in MAC play leading 4-2 Akron by a half a game after the Zips lost last night to Miami Ohio.  I was on Miami Ohio in that game knowing that Akron had essentially nothing to play for.  That's because Akron hosts Ohio next week in what will essentially decide the MAC East champion.  And it's also the reason this game essentially means nothing to Ohio.  A game against Akron next week is the more important one as it will decide who plays Toledo at Ford Field in the MAC Title game.

Motivation aside, I strongly believe Toledo is the better football team either way.  The Rockets' only loss this season came on the road to unbeaten Miami.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  They have played the tougher schedule and continue to be underrated week in and week out.

Conversely, Ohio has benefited from an extremely soft schedule.  In fact, the Bobcats have played the 107th-toughest schedule of 130 teams in the country.  Their only real test in non-conference play was at Purdue, and they failed miserably in a 21-44 loss.  They also lost at home to Central Michigan 23-26, a team that Toledo beat going away 30-10 on the road.

These teams are pretty evenly matched defensively, but Toledo has the huge edge on offense.  The Rockets are averaging 521 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They have tremendous balance, rushing for 224 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 9.8 per attempt.  Ohio is averaging 424 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

In conference play alone, Toledo is averaging 521 yards per game and 7.6 per play, and giving up 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play, outgaining MAC opponents by 193 yards per game and 2.9 per play.  Ohio is averaging 416 yards per game and 6.0 per play and giving up 340 yards per game and 4.7 per play in MAC action, only outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.3 per play.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Bet Toledo Wednesday.

20* Akron/Miami Ohio MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -6.5

It's now or never for the Miami Ohio Redhawks.  Sitting at 3-6 on the season, they will need to win out to make it to a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They haven't had the same magic this year they did last year when they opened 0-6 and went 6-0 down the stretch.

But the Redhawks are in a similar position here and know they've done it before.  Plus, the schedule ahead is very doable.  After playing Akron this week, they get 3-6 Eastern Michigan at home next week and 2-7 Ball State on the road.  They'll be favored in their final three games, so getting to 6-6 is very doable.  Look for them to have a positive mindset moving forward because of it.

Akron, on the other hand, is going to be in an awful spot mentally.  The MAC East is down to two teams right now in Ohio and Akron.  Both are 4-1, while their next closest pursuers are 2-3 within the conference.  And who does Akron play next week? Ohio.  So that game next week will decide who wins the East division and makes it to the MAC Championship at Ford Field.  The Zips will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't be focused this week knowing this game means absolutely nothing to their title hopes.

Akron is a fraudulent 5-4 this season.  The Zips are only averaging 332 yards per game and 5.2 per play offensively, while giving up 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play defensively.  So they are getting outgained by 112 yards per game on the season, which isn't the sign of a team that would be 5-4 right now.

Akron has actually been outgained in seven of its nine games this season.  The only two exceptions were against the worst two teams they played in FCS Arkansas Pine Bluff and awful Ball State, which they only outgained by 7 yards in a misleading 31-3 final.  Ball State has been getting blown out by everyone here of late.

The Zips are 4-1 in MAC play, but they were outgained in four of those five games.  They wree outgianed by 15 yards by Ball State in their 34-23 road victory.  They were outgained by 211 yards in their 14-13 road win at Western Michigan.  They were outgained by 293 yards in their 21-48 loss at Toledo.  They were also outgained by 87 yards in their 21-20 win over Buffalo.  As you can see, two of their four wins came by a single point, and they were misleading finals.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is much better than its 3-6 record would indicate.  The Redhawks have outgained seven of their nine opponents this season.  They only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards at Notre Dame, which is a pretty good showing when you look at how good Notre Dame has been.  They were also outgained by 70 yards by Cincinnati.

Despite being 2-3 in MAC play, Miami Ohio has actually outgained all five of its MAC opponents.  The Redhawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense in MAC play and giving up only 5.5 yards per play on defense in MAC action.  They are outgaining MAC opponents by 49.2 yards per game.  Compare that to Akron, which is getting outgained by 119.8 yards per game in MAC play, and it's pretty easy to see which is the better team tonight.

It's worth noting that Akron lost leading rusher Warren Ball to a season-ending ankle injury recently.  They were already struggling to run the ball, averaging just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Ball averages 4.4 yards per carry on the season, and not having him in there will make them very one-dimensional the rest of the way.  The Redhawks have been good against the pass this season, giving up just 53.5% completions and 203 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

The Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  The Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Plays on a home team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chuck Martin is 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season as the coach of the Redhawks.  Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3

The Green Bay Packers are in a big spot here needing a win to keep up with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.  And I simply trust them to get the job done here as home underdogs more than the Detroit Lions, who shouldn't be laying points on the road.

The spot couldn't be better for the Packers, either.  They had their bye last week so have had basically 15 days since their last game.  That extra time has allowed Mike McCarthy to install an offense that is more tailored to QB Brett Hundley's skill set.  Hundley wasn't very effective in the rain in his first start against the Saints two weeks ago, but he will fare much better with this extra prep time against the Lions this time around.

The Aaron Rodgers injury wasn't the only major one in Green Bay.  They have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season.  So the bye actually helps that aspect as well as the Packers are expected to expected to have their starting five intact for the first time all season.  The Packers plan to use a run-first game plan behind this O-Line and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 346 yards on 62 attempts while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  The linemen couldn't be more excited.

“I think we have a lot of confidence in what we bring to the table. It’s a matter of one, being healthy enough to do it, and two, going out there and showing it,” David Bakhtiari said as the Packers returned to work earlier this week. “The nice thing (is), we’re going to have some fun.

“Not having ‘12’ is terrible. But, I mean, everybody knows that you’re not going to be throwing as much. So it’s kind of a chance for us to pin our ears back and attack. At the end of the day, you have ‘12’ out there, you’re going to want to put the ball in the hands of the best player in the league as much as you can. Here, (the thought is), ‘Take a little bit off of Brett.’ That’d be nice.”

McCarthy acknowledged that having the line together for the first time; they've started seven different variations in seven games; will factor into his game plan.  “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together week in and week out.”

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games last season, including playoffs.  They were a fraudulent playoff team, and they are fraudulent again this year.  They are 3-4 and are lucky to have that record.  Reality has set in after a 3-1 start, and they've gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Lions rank 22nd in offensive yards per play (4.9) and 22nd in defensive yards per play (5.6), getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play on the season.  That's not the sign of a good team, and it's one of the worst yards per play differentials in the NFL, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.

Finally, Detroit never wins at Lambeau Field.  The Packers are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 home meetings with the Lions.  The Lions are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, and they shouldn't be favored here.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS after gaining 300 passing yards or more last game over the past three seasons.  The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Matthew Stafford is now 6-50 in his career against teams with a winning record, going 1-4 thus far against such teams in 2017.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7

Injuries have absolutely derailed the Washington Redskins' season.  And after back-to-back blowout losses to Philadelphia (24-34) and Dallas (19-33), the future looks very gloomy in Washington.  I just don't see how this team is going to field a competent team in the immediate future.  Bare with me as I list off all of their injuries.

Jay Gruden named 13 injured players during his news conference Monday, most of whom would be considered questionable this week, and 9 of which are starters.  A new one added to list Monday was receiver Jamison Crowder, who injured his hamstring and suffered a lower leg contusion.  There's a chance he won't play against Seattle, leaving Washington possibly without its mores productive receiver.

Kirk Cousins' favorite TE  Jordan Reed will likely be out Sunday against Seattle, while defensive lineman Matt Ionnidis will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his hand.  They are already missing first-round pick Jonathan Allen with a Lisfranc injury.  He and Ioanidis provided a strong interior pass rush in the first five games.  They also played starting inside linebacker Mason Foster on injured reserve Saturday.

But the cluster injuries on the offensive line are the biggest concern.  Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with two sprained ankles, but he didn't even show up on the injury report.  And Monday's news of the 13 players came after three Redskins starting offensive linemen were inactive for Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

"We only have seven guys that we can put inactive. That's the major issue that we have right now," Gruden said. "We have to try to get six of those guys up -- at least -- somehow."

The situation is bad enough that Gruden said if the Redskins had to practice Tuesday, he wasn't sure who would line up at left tackler.  Starter Trend Williams missed last week and may try to practice.  His backup, Ty Nsekhe, also might try to practice but he's been out since Week 2 with a core muscle injury.  And Ksekhe's backup, T.J. Clemmings, sprained an ankle Sunday and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter.

Rookie Tyler Catalina finished Sunday's game at left tackle after starting at right guard before.  Standout guard Brandon Scherff is still recovering from a sprained MCL, so Gruden needs Catalina at that position.  Gruden is hoping that Scherff can increase his activity this week.

The Redskins have only four healthy defensive linemen, so they will have to add another for at least this week.  Two of their four safeties are injured in rookie starter Montae Nickolson (shoulder) and backup Stefan McClure (hamstring).  Starting corner Bashaud Breeland (knee/groin), who was inactive against the Cowboys, is now listed as day-to-day.

"You try to prepare for that with your depth in training camp and obviously your practice squad guys, you try to get them ready," Gruden said. "But, when you get overwhelmed on the offensive line and now at tight end and safety ... it becomes a challenge. But we're going to keep fighting on and put some guys out there and get them ready to play. That's all we can do."

The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of all these injuries and really put a beat down on the Redskins.  This is a Seattle team that is rolling right now, having won four straight coming in while scoring an average of 31.8 points per game.  Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans last week. And now the Seahawks traded for LT Duane Brown, one of the top tackles in the league, to help shore up their offensive line.

The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, going 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.  Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a a game where 60 or more points total were scored.  Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off two straight losses to division rivals.  The Seahawks are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, yet nobody wants to give them the respect they deserve.  That's why they are consistently undervalued week after week, and I think they continue to be this week as only 3-point road favorites over the hapless New York Giants.

The Rams are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition.  Sean McVay has done wonders with the offense as the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense at 30.3 yards per game.  Wade Phillips has the defense playing well as they rank 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  And they are only going to continue to get better on that side of the ball.

The offense has the best weapons it has had in recent memory with Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tavon Austin.  That's a big reason Jared Goff has taken the next step this season, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,719 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.7 per attempt.  And the Rams have arguably the best set of kickers in the league with punter Johnny Hekker (47.9 AVG) and PK Greg Zuerlein (21 for 22 FGs), which is an underrated aspect of this team.

The Rams are right in the thick of the NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks and have a lot to play for coming out of their bye week.  And they lost to the Seahawks (5-2) at home on October 8th, so they do not have the tiebreaker right now.  It makes every game more important for them moving forward to get a lead on Seattle.  And that 16-10 loss to the Seahawks was about as misleading as it gets.

 They outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game and were clearly the better team, but red zone struggles doomed them.  They really should be 6-1 right now.  They have since responded with 27-17 and 33-0 road beat downs of Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively.  The Rams have actually been at their best on the road, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game.  They also won in Dallas 35-30 as 5-point underdogs.

While the Rams have been fortunate to get to their bye week without any real significant injuries, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the New York Giants.  They are without three of their top four receivers in Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris.  They have cluster injuries along the offensive line to Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and also key injuries along the defensive line and at linebacker.  

Not to mention, they have suspended top cornerback Janoris Jenkins for the second time in three weeks after he failed to return form the bye week on time.  This team is an absolute mess right now, and at 1-6 on the season, having nothing but pride to play for moving forward.  It's going to be tough for them to find motivation week in and week out to beat teams, and they'll be more concerned with just collecting a paycheck at this point.

The Giants rank 27th in the league in total offense at 296.4 yards per game, and 27th in total defense at 379.4 yards per game allowed.  They are getting outgained by a ridiculous 83.0 yards per game, which is the second-worst yardage differential in the NFL.  In their two games since losing that trio of receivers to injury in a 22-27 loss to the Chargers, they were outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos and by 248 yards by the Seahawks.  That is a sign of things to come for this undermanned, unmotivated squad.

The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.  And my favorite trend backing the Rams is that teams coming back from London who had a bye the next week are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS since 2015 coming out of the bye.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here, and it will show up on the scoreboard this weekend.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +21.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this weekend as 21.5-point home favorites against the LSU Tigers.  This is a huge rivalry game that always seems to go down to the wire, and I think it will be closer than most anticipate this weekend.

The 'game of the year' line prior to the season on this game was Alabama -12, and now it's been adjusted 9.5 points to -21.5, showing the kind of value we are getting.  Many thought LSU would challenge Alabama for the SEC West title.  But since they lost to Troy, everyone has counted them out.  That has provided extra line value with the Tigers since that loss.

Indeed, LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since losing to Troy.  They won at Florida 17-16 in a game that actually closed LSU -2 but you could find LSU as high as +6.5 earlier in the week, and I got on them at +3.5 in that game and cashed a ticket.  I was also on LSU as 7-point home dogs to Auburn in a 27-23 outright win.  I did fade LSU against Ole Miss the next week, but they even surprised me and kept it rolling with a 40-24 win as 6.5-point road favorites.

You can bet LSU feels it is still very much alive to win the SEC West.  After all, they control their own destiny because if they win out they will be be crowned SEC West champs.  So this game is even bigger for them than it is for undefeated Alabama.  The schedule is very manageable after this with games against Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M, so it's not out of the question if they can pull the upset.

I just like the way this LSU team is trending right now, especially after their best offensive output of the season.  The Tigers racked up 40 points and 593 total yards against Ole Miss last time out.  Derrius Guice was banged up earlier this season and actually missed the Troy game.  But he's back to the form that he closed last season with.  Guice rushed for 276 yards and a score against Ole Miss.  And Danny Etling isn't great, but he doesn't make the big mistake with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he's averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt.  Avoiding turnovers will be key against Alabama.

I think the biggest reason the Crimson Tide are so overrated right now is because they couldn't have played a much softer SEC schedule up to this point.  Their five SEC games have come against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Tennessee.  I guess you would say Texas A&M is the best team they've faced, and they only won that game 27-19 as 25-point favorites.  And the early 24-7 win over Florida State clearly doesn't look as good now as it did at the time.  LSU is a clear step up in class this week and the best team the Crimson Tide have faced by far.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Alabama beat LSU by more than 21 points.  That's a span of 15 meetings, giving us a perfect 15-0 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 21.5-point spread.  This is simply way too many points to be giving LSU in this rivalry game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Texas/TCU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +7

Tom Herman is now 14-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach and offensive coordinator dating back to his time at Ohio State with 11 outright upsets.  He has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the role with the Longhorns this season, covering as 16.5-point dogs in a 24-27 OT loss at USC, covering as 8.5-point dogs in a 24-29 loss to Oklahoma, and covering as 7-point dogs in a 10-13 home loss to Oklahoma State.

Now the Longhorns are getting a full touchdown once again on the road against TCU this week.  I think there's tremendous value with them here as this team has improved as much as anyone since the Week 1 upset loss to Maryland.  In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And they have been battle-tested against a brutal schedule, so they will be ready for TCU this week.

They nearly beat USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and I believe all three of those teams are better than TCU.  The Horned Frogs have been way overrated due to their 7-0 start to the seaosn, and that showed last week with a 7-14 loss at Iowa State.  It was only a matter of time before Kenny Hill lost a game for them because he's simply not that good and he's mistake-prone.

The Horned Frogs' only touchdown last week against the Cyclones came on a kickoff return to start the second half.  The offense was shut out, and they committed three costly turnovers, including two interceptions by Hill in the red zone.  Now Hill has to go up against the best defense he has faced yet.

This is a Texas defense that continues to improve, allowing just less than 30 points at the end of regulation to every team they've played since Maryland.  Sam Darnold and USC only managed 27 points despite going to overtime, Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma were held to 29 points, and Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State were limited to 13 points despite going to overtime.  This is a defense that is giving up just 21.0 points per game on the season.

TCU has faced a putrid schedule of opposing defenses up to this point.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 37.2 points and 446 yards per game, but that has come against a slate of defenses that allowed 33.9 points and 431 yards per game on the season.  The Horned Frogs do have an elite defense, but it's about on par with this Texas stop unit.

The Longhorns continue to improve offensively as they have topped 400 total yards in three of their last four games while averaging 421 yards per game during this stretch against K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor.  It was only a matter of time before Herman got this offense hitting its stride, and that appears to be the case now.

Texas is going to have extra motivation for this game after getting blown out by TCU in three consecutive seasons.  I think the Horned Frogs are in line for a 'hangover effect' from their 14-7 loss to Iowa State last week that all but killed their chances of making the four-team playoff.  So the Longhorns catch them in a good spot and will be the more motivated team to avenge those three consecutive defeats.

TCU is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Don't be surprised if the Longhorns win this game outright, but we'll gladly take the 7 points for some insurance.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +22

It hasn't taken much time for the Boise State Broncos to starting getting love from the betting public and the oddsmakers again.  They were a terrible team against the spread for the past one and a half seasons, but they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games and are starting to command respect from the oddsmakers now.  I think they are getting too much respect as 22-point home favorites over Nevada this week.

A 24-7 win at BYU isn't impressive.  The 31-14 win at San Diego State was a good win, but the Aztecs basically gave that game away with turnovers and special teams miscues.  The 24-14 home win over Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites wasn't that impressive, and the 41-14 win at Utah State last time out as 13-point favorites isn't anything to get too excited about, either.

What I am excited about is this Nevada team.  It was always going to take some time for Jay Norvell to implement his Air Raid system, but now he has the Wolf Pack firing on all cylinders.  They have scored 35, 42 and 42 points in their last three games and have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a result.  They beat Hawaii 35-31 as 5.5-point home dogs, only lost 42-44 at Colorado State as 24-point dogs, and lost at home 42-45 to Air Force as 5.5-point dogs.

But unlike Boise State, the Wolf Pack aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers despite their dramatic improvement.  And now they are coming off a bye week since that loss to Air Force to hone in things and prepare for this matchup with Boise State.  They should put forth another great effort here off their bye and continue making improvements.  Plus, I'm sure Norvell has a few tricks up his sleeve that he installed during the bye that will catch Boise State off guard.  He has been great at calling trick plays at the perfect times this year.

I think this is a huge lookahead spot for Boise State with a road game at Colorado State next week.  The Rams were the preseason favorites to win the Mountain Division and will be the biggest contenders with Boise State.  The winner of that game will likely win that side of the conference and advantage to the Mountain West Championship Game.  So I don't think Nevada will have Boise State's full attention this week.

Nevada is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 0-9 ATS in all home games over the last two years.  The Blue Turf isn't the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos are only outscoring opponents by an average of 6.3 points per game in those nine home games over the past two seasons.  I think this one will be closer than expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Boise State.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3

The Oklahoma Sooners have mostly dominated the Bedlam Series of late, winning four of the last five meetings.  However, this is the first year during this stretch that I actually feel Oklahoma State has the better team coming in.  And they will take out years of frustration on their 'big brother' this weekend in Stillwater.

The Cowboys have been the best team in the Big 12, and I really don't even think it's close.  They have an elite offense that is putting up 44.5 points, 569 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Mason Rudolph is having a Heisman-worthy season, throwing for 2,866 yards and a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for seven touchdowns.  And the Cowboys aren't one-dimensional as their big, beefy offensive line is getting the job done and paving the way for 199 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

But the real reason the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the country and better than Oklahoma this season is defense.  They have one of the most underrated defenses in the land.  The Cowboys only give up 24.4 points, 358 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams who average 31.8 points, 431 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 7.4 points, 73 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season.

Those numbers have really shown up in Big 12 play despite facing mostly elite offenses thus far.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.6 points, 373.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma, which is yielding 33.0 points, 449.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big 12 action.

Then you look at who these teams have faced in the Big 12 and it's easy to see that Oklahoma State has gone up against the tougher slate of opposing offenses.  They have both played Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas, but Oklahoma State already had to play WVU and TCU, while Oklahoma has played Iowa State and Kansas State instead of WVU and TCU.

The Sooners have been way overvalued in Big 12 play.  They are 1-4 ATS as their first four games were decided by 8 points or less against Baylor (49-41), Iowa State (31-38), Texas (29-24) and Kansas State (42-35).  And their only cover came last week in misleading 49-27 home win over Texas Tech as 19-point favorites.

Rudolph and company will be able to score at will on an Oklahoma defense that has holes all over the secondary that have been exploited this season.  Their two starting cornerbacks are awful.  The Sooners are allowing 61.1% completions and 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which only gives up 55.5% completions and 6.4 yards per attempt.  The Cowboys have also been better against the run, giving up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, while the Sooners allow 142 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

And the common opponents show that Oklahoma State is the better team this year.  Oklahoma is only outgaining the three common opponents of Oklahoma State by 124 yards per game, while the Cowboys are outgaining those same three foes by 239.4 yards per game.

Last week's 50-39 win in West Virginia resulted in a cover as 9.5-point favorites for the Cowboys, but it was a very misleading final.  It was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Mountaineers got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only managed 347 total yards against this stout Cowboys' defense.

The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.  Mike Gundy is 37-20 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Gundy and company get their revenge this weekend.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +25.5

I locked in South Carolina at +25.5.  I love it even more now that Georgia came out ranked No. 1 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Now the Bulldogs will be getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they are likely to come out flat against the Gamecocks Saturday.  They will also start to feel the pressure of being ranked so highly, which puts an even bigger target on their backs.

But the main reason I like South Carolina this week is because it's also a letdown spot for the Bulldogs off their huge 42-7 win over their biggest rival in the Florida Gators last week.  They finally got revenge on the Gators after years of misery against them.  But that was a misleading final as the Bulldogs only outgained the Gators by 144 yards.  They simply took advantage of huge turnovers and special teams plays.

The Gamecocks have been one of the more underrated teams in college football this season.  They have gone 6-2 with a win over NC State.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Texas A&M by 10 points or less.  So they have been competitive in every game, and I expect more of the same from them here against Georgia.

Will Muschamp knows how to coach of a defense, and the Gamecocks' defense is the reason why they can be competitive in this game.  They are giving up just 20.2 points, 382 yards per game and 5.3 per play this season.  They have been stout against the run, giving up just 138 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  And that will be key to stopping a one-dimensional Georgia offense that rushed for 284 yards per game and 6.0 per carry.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Muschamp were teammates in college at Georgia.  Smart won't be looking to run up on the score on his former teammate.  And it's also worth noting that Georgia has an even bigger game against Auburn on deck, so this is a clear lookahead spot for the Bulldogs.

South Carolina has actually had Georgia's number, winning four of the last seven meetings outright.  The Gamecocks have also gone 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  And Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 24 points once in the last 40 meetings dating back to 1974.  That makes for a dynamite 39-1 system backing the Gamecocks pertaining to this 25.5-point spread.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +9

It's going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing 38-39 road loss at Ohio State last week.  It's the type of loss that can really take a couple weeks for a team to get over.  It was basically the De Facto Big Ten Championship Game, and the Nittany Lions lost it.

The way they lost it was even tougher to swallow for the Nittany Lions.  They blew a 28-10 lead in that contest.  They were actually outscored 19-3 in the fourth quarter, giving up the game-winning touchdown pass with 1:48 left.  And Trace McSorley and company went four and out on the next possession.  Saquon Barkley didn't even touch the ball on the final possession, and he was seen on the sidelines chewing out his offensive linemen.  I just don't like the mental state of this team coming in.

But let's be honest, Ohio State was the better team in that game, and the Nittany Lions were fortunate to even keep it close.  The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 246 yards.  They racked up 529 total yards on the Penn State defense, while giving up just 283 total yards.  They held Barkley and company to just 91 rushing yards on 35 carries, an average of 2.6 per carry.  I think that effort really shows how overrated Penn State is.

Now the Nittany Lions are being asked to go on the road off that deflating loss and lay 9 points to an upstart Michigan State team that has been underrated all season.  It's also an early start time, so the Nittany Lions could still be sleepwalking through it.  This has upset written all over it.

Not to mention, Michigan State is going to want revenge from an embarrassing 12-45 loss in Happy Valley last year.  But that was a huge misleading final and a bad Spartans team who actually out-first-downed the Nittany Lions 26-18 in that game.  And that was the final game of the regular season with Penn State trying to clinch the Big Ten West, while Michigan State was lacking motivation after already being eliminate from bowl contention.  You can bet Mark Dantonio has not forgotten and will be reminding his players all week, not that he even needs to.

Michigan State is 6-2 this season and could easily be 8-0.  The two losses were misleading.  One was to No. 3 Notre Dame 18-38, and while the score was a blowout, the statistics shows that the Spartans should have won.  They actually outgained the Fighting Irish by 141 yards in that game.  Then last week in their triple-overtime loss at Northwestern, they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  They have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season with the only exception coming when they were outgained by 48 yards in their 14-10 road win over Michigan as 13-point dogs.

Penn State doesn't control its own destiny in the Big Ten West now.  However, Michigan State actually does and still has plenty to play for.  They only have one Big Ten loss, and if they win out they will be crowned Big Ten West champs.  That's because if they can beat Penn State this week and Ohio State next week, they would hold the tiebreaker on the Buckeyes.  With that kind of outlook, it's going to be much easier for the Spartans to get over their overtime loss to Northwestern last week.

The Spartans are back to having an elite defense this season.  They are giving up just 19.6 points per game, 283 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play against opponents that average 28.9 points, 388 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points, 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  And Penn State is 2-12 ATS in its last 12 road games versus excellent defensive teams who give up 285 or fewer yards per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons, so James Franklin hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well.  He has been more of a front-runner.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UMass +28

This has all the makings of a flat spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge 35-14 road win over Texas A&M last week, which was a very misleading final and has the Bulldogs overvalued as it is.  And now Mississippi State has its 'game of the year' on deck next week against Alabama, so it's a huge lookahead spot as well.

I just can't see how the Bulldogs are going to get up for this game as they step outside the conference to play the UMass Minutemen.  We've seen in the past the Bulldogs fall flat in these non-conference games, most recently getting upset by South Alabama as identical 28-point home favorites last year.  All Dan Mullen will be concerned with here is keeping his guys healthy for that game against Alabama next week, not running up the score on the Minutemen.

There's no question UMass is better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Minutemen actually lost their first six games of the season all by 10 points or less.  That includes a 13-17 loss as identical 28-point dogs at Tennessee.  And that was when the Vols were still playing well, not the Vols team that we have seen today.  And either way it's impressive that they went on the road and nearly pulled off the upset against an SEC opponent.

The Minutemen then had their bye week following those six straight close losses to open the season, and promptly took out their frustration with a 55-20 beat down of Georgia Southern as 8.5-point favorites.  They carried that momentum over into an upset 30-27 home win over Appalachian State as 4-point dogs, and App State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt.

The good part about backing UMass is that they have an offense capable of scoring points on this Mississippi State defense.  They are putting up 29.9 points and 443 yards per game this season behind a passing attack that is averaging 296 yards per game through the air.  The Minutemen have actually outgained five of their eight opponents this season and are outgaining them by an average of 55 yards per game, the sign of a team that is better than 2-6.

I know starting quarterback Andrew Ford is questionable with an injury, but backup Ross Comis has played well in his absence the past two games.  He brings a dual-threat element to the offense, rushing for 132 yards  and two scores on 35 attempts.  He has also thrown for 380 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  He is capable of handling the job if Ford cannot go and has played a big part in their last two victories over both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

The Minutemen are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  They had that 13-17 loss to Tennessee as 28-point dogs earlier this season.  In 2016, they also played Mississippi State and only lost 35-47 as 22-point home dogs.  They also lost 7-24 at Florida as 36-point dogs last year.  In 2014, they lost 31-34 at Vanderbilt as 16-point dogs.  In 2013, they lost to Vanderbilt 7-24 as 29-point home dogs.  They just have a knack for playing these SEC teams tough, and I'm sure in almost every situation it was a letdown spot for the SEC squad.  There is no bigger letdown spot than this one for the Bulldogs with Alabama on deck next week.  Take UMass Saturday.

20* Marshall/FAU C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -9

No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 8 in college football than Florida Atlantic.  It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes.  But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.

FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener.  The other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo.  But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in four Conference USA games.  I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.

It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites.  They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites.  And last week they took down defending C-USA champ Western Kentucky 42-28 on the road as 6-point favorites.  The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 83 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 21 points per game.

The reason I'm confident laying this number with the Owls is because their offense cannot be tamed right now.  They are averaging 51.7 points, 563.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference action.  They have rushed for at least 252 yards in six consecutive games and are averaging 296 rushing yards and 6.3 per carry on the season.  And they've made enough big plays in the passing game that opposing teams can't stack eight in the box.

Marshall has played a much weaker schedule than FAU and is overrated right now due to its 6-2 record.  The six wins have come against all teams with losing record in Miami Ohio (3-6), Kent State (2-7), Cincinnati (2-6), Charlotte (1-7), Old Dominion (2-6) and Middle Tennessee (3-5).  Those six teams are a combined 13-37 on the season.

We saw just last week how overrated the Thundering Herd really are.  They lost 30-41 at home to Florida International as 15-point favorites.  They have put up good defensive numbers up to this point, but against the two best teams they played in NC State and FIU, they allowed 37 and 41 points, respectively.  Now they are up against another offensive juggernaut and won't have the firepower to keep up.  The Owls have scored 31 or more points in six straight games.

Marshall is 43-68 ATS in its last 111 road games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.  FAU is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning home record.  It will be a rowdy home atmosphere for the Owls tonight as fans are excited about what Kiffin is doing and realize that they are a legitimate contender to win Conference USA.  Bet Florida Atlantic Friday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +3.5

The New York Jets will be out for revenge from their 21-12 road loss to Buffalo in Week 1.  The Jets have improved by leaps and bounds since the opening couple weeks of the season.  They have been an undervalued commodity, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They remain undervalued as 3.5-point home dogs to the Bills Thursday.

The Jets won three games in a row over Miami, Jacksonville and Cleveland to start the streak.  Then they lost 17-24 as 9-point home dogs to the Patriots in a controversial game where they had a TD overturned and called a touchback on a a fumble through the end zone.  Then they blew a 28-14 lead and lost 31-28 to the Dolphins as 3-point road dogs.  And last week they gave the Falcons all they could handle, losing 20-25 as 6.5-point home dogs.

The Bills come in overvalued due to their 5-2 record this season.  But it may be about as fraudulent of a 5-2 start as you'll find.  The Bills have actually been outgained in six of their seven games this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 43.6 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  

Buffalo has been winning with smoke an mirrors thanks to having the No. 1 turnover differential in the NFL at +14.  They have only committed 3 turnovers while forcing 17.  That type of ratio is not going to last, and they'll regress to the mean in the turnover department moving forward.

The Jets are only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play, which is the sign of an average team.  They are gaining 5.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Buffalo averages 5.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.5 per play on defense to compare.  And yards per play are more indicative of how good a team is.

Josh McCown has revived his career in New York, completing a sweet 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,840 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 7.2 per attempt.  He should find plenty of success against a banged-up, poor Buffalo secondary that has allowed three straight 300-yard passers and an average of 341.3 yards per game during this stretch.  It has come against the likes of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr.

LeSean McCoy got 33 touches against Oakland last week and won't have much left in the tank working on a short week here with this Thursday night game.  McCoy has 38 receptions this season, 18 more than second-place Charles Clay, who is out with an injury.  That leaves Jordan Matthews as the next-best receiver for this team with 15 receptions.  McCoy is clearly getting run into the ground.

The Jets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Buffalo is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games overall.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Jets Thursday.

15* NIU/Toledo MAC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois +9.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies and Toledo Rockets have played in some epic games over the years.  These teams are always fighting for the MAC West title, and that is the case once again in 2017.  This game will likely decide the division champ.

The Huskies are 6-1 in their last seven meetings with the Rockets.  The only exception was a 31-24 home loss last year in which the Huskies were down to their 3rd string quarterback.  But this has been a closely-contested series as five of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  I expect more of the same this year, which is why getting 9.5 points with the Huskies is such a value.

It's hard not to admire what Northern Illinois has done this season.  The Huskies are 6-2 on the year with their two losses coming by 3 and 6 points to Boston College (20-23) as 3.5-point dogs and San Diego State (28-34) as 9.5-point road dogs.  And they outgained both of those teams in losing efforts.  They also picked up an impressive 21-17 road win at Nebraska as 10.5-point dogs.

Toledo is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and covers against suspect MAC teams in Ball State, Akron and Central Michigan.  Now they take a step up in class this week against a team they just simply cannot figure out through the years.

I also like the matchup for the Huskies defensively.  Northern Illinois has been rock solid on defense, giving up just 18.0 points, 307 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season.  Toledo has been running on opponents with ease, averaging 231 rushing yards per game.  But that won't be the case tonight against a NIU defense that only gives up 106 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  And they've faced some elite rushing offenses in BC, SDSU and Nebraska and shut them all down.  NIU has also been stiff against the pass, allowing just 53.1% completions and 201 passing yards per game.

The Rockets have been just an average team on defense this year.  They are giving up 25.4 points, 363 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 24.2 points, 365 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  The Rockets will have the edge offensively, but again they haven't seen many defense as stubborn as this Huskies outfit.

NIU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game over the last three seasons.  NIU is 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 34-14-3 ATS in their last 51 road games.  The Rockets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toledo is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games overall.  Bet Northern Illinois Thursday.

15* CMU/WMU MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +6.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have their best chance to beat their biggest rivals in the Western Michigan Broncos this year.  They have lost three straight to the Broncos in this series, but those were much better WMU teams under PJ Fleck.  This 2017 version has been much more vulnerable.

Indeed, Western Michigan is just 5-3 this season.  Three of its five wins have come by single-digits with the lone exceptions being blowout wins against FCS foe Wagner and arguably the worst team in college football in Ball State.  The Broncos needed overtime to beat both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan, and only beat Idaho by 9 as 17-point home favorites.  They also lost to Akron 14-13 at home as 12.5-point favorites.

Now the Broncos lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a season-ending broken collarbone against Eastern Michigan last week.  That's a huge loss as he has been one of the best QB's in the MAC, completing 64.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for three scores.  Now the Broncos will be turning to true freshman Reece Goddard this week.

Central Michigan is playing well of late.  It upset Ohio 26-23 on the road as 10-point dogs, lost to Toledo 10-30 at home, and crushed Ball State 56-9 on the road as 3-point favorites in its last three games.  The loss to Toledo isn't so bad because the Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC, and Ohio may be the second-best team, so that win looks really good right now.

Miami transfer Shane Morris has come in and played well for head coach John Bonamego.  He has thrown for 1,966 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season.  Stud receiver Corey Willis is back and healthy now after missing four games earlier this season.  He has caught 23 balls for 293 yards and four scores in those four games.

The strength of schedule for both teams has been very comparable.  And the numbers suggest that they are pretty evenly-matched teams up to this point.  The Chippewas average 5.2 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.2 per play on defense.  The Broncos average 5.7 per play on offense, but give up 5.6 per play defensively.  So while the Broncos have had the edge on offense up to this point, that won't be the case in this game since they are starting a true freshman quarterback for the first time.

Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games.  The Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more yards per game.  The Chippewas are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Miami (OH)/Ohio UNDER 54

Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio is one of the more underrated rivalries in the MAC.  These teams absolutely hate each other, and that makes these games played closer to the vest.  And if you look at the series history, it has almost always been a defensive battle.  I expect more of the same Tuesday night.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Bobcats and Redhawks have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings with the lone exception behind a 57-point effort in 2013.  They have averaged a combined 40.4 points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 54.  Ohio beat Miami 17-7 last year and these teams combined for just 435 total yards.

I think the fact that Ohio is scoring 40.7 points per game this season is what has inflated this total.  But the Bobcats have played one of the worst schedules of opposing defenses in all of college football.  Now they'll be up against a much more respectable Miami defense that is giving up 24.5 points and 356 yards per game, including 20.5 points per game in conference play.

Miami's offense has failed to get going this year, averaging just 23.6 points per game.  Now they'll be up against a Bobcats defense that is giving up only 25.4 points per game, including 19.7 points per game, 313.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in conference play.

The UNDER is 37-16 in Redhawks last 53 October games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven games following a bye.  Both teams have extra prep time after last playing on November 21st, which favors the defenses.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Redhawks last five conference games.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Bobcats last 29 conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a great spot here.  They are coming off two straight losses and will be fired up to get back in the win column at home.  And they are coming off a Thursday game against the Raiders, giving them extra rest time and preparation to get ready for the Denver Broncos.  That mini-bye week has been pure gold in the NFL.  Teams coming off a Thursday game have gone 9-3 ATS this season.

While the Chiefs had a chance to beat both the Steelers and Raiders in their last two games, the Broncos haven't even come close to winning their last two.  They lost 10-23 at home to the Giants despite being 13.5-point favorites, and then proceeded to get shut out 21-0 on the road against the Chargers despite being favored in that game as well.

The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Losing Emmanuel Sanders is a bigger loss than what is getting factored into these spreads.  He is the second-favorite target of Trevor Siemian and now this is a vanilla offense without him as opposing teams can just take away Demaryius Thomas, and the Broncos don't have anyone else that can beat them.

Denver is was also missing tackle Menelik Watson and his backup Donald Stephenson last week, which explains all the struggles that Siemian was having.  Both are questionable to return this week.  And Siemian was dealing with a shoulder injury of his own and didn't look good at all against the Chargers.  He got rocked time after time, and I just can't see how he isn't beat up right now.  I think he is hiding injuries and playing through them.

The Broncos have benefited from a home-heavy schedule in the early going, playing four home games compared to two road games.  And boy were their two road games awful.  They lost 16-26 to the Bills and 21-0 to the Chargers, averaging just 8.0 points and giving up 23.5 points per game, losing both by double-digits.  And now this is a big step up in class against a Chiefs offense that is doing whatever it wants to.

The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 points per game (1st), 5.2 yards per carry (1st), 8.7 yards per pass attempt (1st) and 6.5 yards per play (1st).  As you can see, they rank 1st in the NFL in all four categories.  Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt are having MVP-caliber seasons.  And while the Chiefs' numbers defensively are down this year, it's due to playing the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.  I would argue that this Denver offense is the weakest they have faced yet, and it's not really even close considering the current state of the Broncos' offense with all of the injuries.

The Chiefs have owned the Broncos in their last three meetings.  They won 29-13 in their final meeting of 2015 on the road, 30-27 on th road last year, and 33-10 at home last year.  They have outscored the Broncos a combined 92-50 in those three games despite playing two on the road, or by an average of 14 points per game.  They have proven by averaging 30.7 points per game that they have no trouble moving the ball and putting up points on this supposedly vaunted Denver defense.

Andy Reid has always been a great coach to back with extra prep time as he has the best record of any NFL head coach off a bye.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. AFC West opponents.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The season is basically on the line for the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.  At 2-4, and following three straight losses, they cannot afford a loss this week at home to the Carolina Panthers.  I think we're getting the Bucs at a discount here.

After all, the Bucs have lost their last three games all by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games.  And they've been killed by injuries up to this point, but now they are as healthy as they've been since their 29-7 win over the Bears in Week 2.  Their defensive numbers haven't been pretty, but that's almost exclusively due to the injuries, not the lack of talent.

Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are back healthy.  Cornerback Brent Grimes and safety TJ Ward have each missed time and are healthy now.  Doug Martin is back from his 3-game suspension.  And Jameis Winston showed that his shoulder injury is an afterthought after throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills last week.

The Carolina Panthers' 4-1 start was a bit fraudulent as three of their wins were 50/50 games decided by 6 points or less.  Then injuries really hit this team the last few weeks as they lost at home to the Eagles, and were embarrassed 17-3 at Chicago last week.  They managed just 3 points against the Bears despite having the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game.

The offense has been hampered by injuries on the offensive line and to Greg Olsen.  The defense was without its best player in Luke Kuechly last week, and it's still uncertain whether he will return from a concussion this week.  They could be extra cautious with him after he missed significant time with a concussion last year.  Safety Kurt Coleman is also questionable.

The weakness of the Panthers' defense is the secondary as they allow 67% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Well, the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in passing offense at 312 yards per game.  They are loaded with weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, a rookie out of Alabama who had two touchdown receptions last week and will play a bigger role moving forward.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC South opponents.  The favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation with the San Francisco 49ers catching 13 points on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  The 49ers are coming off a 40-10 blowout home loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are coming off a 34-24 double-digit home win over the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.

The majority of bettors were on the Eagles in that game and will continue to back them after they looked so good.  But a lot went wrong for the Redskins as they had cluster injuries along the offensive line throughout the game.  And after playing on Monday, that makes this a short week for the Eagles, which is a disadvantage for them.  

It's also a huge letdown spot for the Eagles off that big win over a division rival, and with plenty of separation between themselves and the second-place Cowboys (3-3) with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.  Don't be surprised if they relax this week with the 0-7 49ers coming to town.

The Eagles lost two standouts to injury in that Redskins game as well.  Left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffered season-ending injuries in the win.  That thrusts backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and linebacker Najee Goode into big roles for the first-place Eagles.  Both have been given a shot in the past, and they have mostly been unproductive.

It was an awful spot for the 49ers last week.  They were deflated following an NFL-record five straight losses by 3 points or less and by a combined 11 points.  And they were tired off a three-game road trip that featured two overtime games.  They were playing a fresh and motivated Dallas Cowboys team that was coming off a bye and two consecutive losses.  It's easy to see how they got blown out.

Now the 49ers should have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the team with the best record in the NFL right now in the Eagles.  They will look at this as an opportunity to shock the world and pull off the upset.  And now that rookie QB CJ Beathard has six quarters of NFL action under his belt, he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

Kyle Shanahan will come up with a game plan that will allow Beathard to be successful this week.  It will revolve around exploiting an Eagles secondary that has been underwhelming this season.  The Eagles rank 29th against the pass, allowing 272.9 passing yards per game on the season.  Because the Eagles are so poor against the pass, the back door is going to be wide open even if the 49ers do find themselves down by two touchdowns or more at some point in this game.

Plays on underdogs 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41

This is my favorite total in the NFL this week.  I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season.  I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.

The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.  They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game.  They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.

Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week.  That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks.  LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts.  LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year.  He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games.  The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do.  Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers.  They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.

The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season.  They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.

Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years.  The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3

The Oakland Raiders are coming off a season-saving 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday.  They thought they won the game a couple times, but had plays called back due to either reviews or penalties. But they showed tremendous composure, and Derek Carr hit the game-winner on the final play to Michael Crabtree.  Now the Raiders have an extra pep in their step heading into this road trip to Buffalo.

And the Raiders are in a situation that I love to back here.  They are coming off a Thursday game, which gives them a mini-bye week and an edge over the Bills in rest and preparation.  Teams coming off Thursday games are a very profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS in 12 games this season.  I really believe the wrong team is favored here.

Carr showed that he is fully recovered from a back injury that forced him to miss all or parts of two games, which were two of the four losses the Raiders have suffered this season.  Carr lit up a good Chiefs defense for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  Amari Cooper showed that he remains an elite receiver after a slow start to the season, catching 11 balls for 210 yards and two scores.

There's no question the Raiders have the better offense in this game.  The Bills have been winning with smoke and mirrors this season and are nowhere near as good as their 4-2 record would indicate.  Their offense has put up just 19.8 points, 299 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Tyrod Taylor is missing his favorite target in Charles Clay, and this is mostly a one-dimension running offense.

That actually makes this a good matchup for the Raiders defensively.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but they have held their own against the run.  They are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry against teams and average 4.3 yards per carry.  And they signed NaVorro Bowman away from the 49ers, and he's an elite run defender who made his first start with the team last week.  He brings an added element of toughness and leadership in the middle of their defense.

The Bills got off to a great start defensively this season, but there have been plenty of holes in their D the last two weeks.  They gave up 388 total yards to the Bengals and 447 to the Bucs.  Their weakness has been against the pass as they allowed 323 passing yards to Andy Dalton and the Bengals and 378 to Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  That's not good news for them considering Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are heating up.  Not to mention TE Jared Cook came alive with 107 receiving yards last week.

A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills.  Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game.  Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday.  Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.

The Raiders have owned the Bills, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo.  Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games coming in.  Buffalo is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4

This is definitely the type of 'buy low sell high' situation that I love in the NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, so they are starting to actually attract attention from the betting public.

We'll buy low on the Falcons knowing that this is the type of 'circle the wagons' game that they'll get up for.  They still have a great shot to win their division, and they are better than their 3-3 record would suggest.  Their offense isn't broken contrary to popular belief, and their defense is better than it gets credit for.

In fact, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.2), which is the most important stat when determining how good an offense is.  And the defense ranks 12th in the NFL giving up 5.1 yards per play, so the Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play.  That's the sign of an elite team, not a mediocre 3-3 one.

While the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game, the Jets are actually getting outgained by 46 yards per game.  The Jets have done a good job of covering some inflated numbers in the early going, but now that the numbers are back to where they should be, this team will be fade material starting this week.

Let's just compare some previous Jets' lines to see the type of line value we are getting here.  The Jets were 7-point road dogs to Buffalo, 14-point road dogs to the Raiders, 5.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, 4-point home dogs to the Jags, and 9-point home dogs to the Patriots.  

Now they are only 4-point home dogs to the Falcons, and I still believe the Falcons are a Top 5 team in the NFL, and potentially top 2.  It will be the second-toughest opponent the Jets have faced all season, just behind the Patriots, who they lost to by a touchdown at home.

The Jets are in a bad state of mind right now.  They came so close to beating the Patriots a couple weeks ago, falling just a touchdown short.  Then they blew a 28-14 fourth quarter lead against the Dolphins last week, losing 28-31.  They are feeling deflated right now and won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to face this hungry Falcons outfit.

Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Falcons are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 8.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* USC/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +3

The Arizona State Sun Devils have flipped the switch.  Their last two games have been two of the most impressive of the entire college football season, and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  I still think this team is flying under the radar this week as home underdogs to the USC Trojans.

It started five weeks ago when they beat Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  That was a healthy Oregon team at the time.  Then they had a decent showing in a 24-34 loss at Stanford as 17-point dogs, covering the spread there as well.

Then they had their bye week and I backed them as 17.5-point home dogs to Washington.  They won that game outright 13-7, limiting a potent Washington offense to just 230 total yards and one touchdown.  If they were ever going to have a letdown, it would have been last week in Salt Lake City.  

Instead, they blasted Utah 30-10 as 10-point underdogs.  They held the Utes to just 265 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett has this defense playing at an extremely high level right now.  He has 40 years of coaching experience and was a tremendous hire by Todd Graham in the offseason.

While the Sun Devils are feeling good about themselves, the USC Trojans just suffered the type of dream-crushing loss to Notre Dame last week that could be hard to recover from.  I was on Notre Dame as my biggest play last week, and the Fighting Irish crushed them 49-14.  Now the Trojans have no shot of making the four-team playoff after coming into the season as one of the favorites to get there.

The Trojans were beaten physically at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Notre Dame.  They gave up 377 rushing yards, and only managed 76 rushing yards on 31 carries.  They have key injuries up and down the offensive and defensive lines, which has been their biggest problem this season.

Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and he has made some costly mistakes all year.  The Trojans have committed at least two turnovers in every game this season and 19 turnovers in eight games overall.  And the Trojans haven't been able to catch their breathe because they don't get a bye week all season.  It's a big reason why these injuries just keep compiling.

Yet here we are with the Trojans favored this week on the road against this upstart Arizona State team.  This despite the fact that USC has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  And Arizona State has gone 4-0 ATS in its last four games while covering the spread by a combined 77.5 points. or by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  And USC needed to stop a 2-point conversion to beat Utah at home two weeks ago, while ASU beat Utah by 20 on the road last week.  That gives these teams a common opponent here recently.

Plays against favorites of 3 to 10 points (USC) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Trojans are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games.  The Sun Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  ASU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

Arizona State is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between 60% & 75%.  The Sun Devils are 80-48 ATS in their last 128 Saturday home games.  It will be a great atmosphere in Tempe for this late-night game on ESPN this weekend.  These fans are really excited about their team this year with the Sun Devils legitimately in the race for the Pac-12 South title after a 3-1 start in conference play.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

25* CFB DOG OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +19

I'm not sure what Oklahoma has done to warrant being a 19-point favorite over Texas Tech.  This team has been overvalued ever since the win over Ohio State, and they haven't been able to live up to expectations.  They won't live up to them here Saturday, either.

The Sooners have gone 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and all four of their games have been decided by 8 points or less against some suspect competition.  They won 49-41 at Baylor as 28-point favorites, lost 31-38 to Iowa State as 30-point home favorites, only beat Texas 29-24 on a neutral as 8.5-point favorites, and needed a late TD to beat Kansas State 42-35 as 16-point road favorites last week.

Those aren't even four of the best teams in the Big 12.  Baylor has yet to win a game, Texas has a losing record, Iowa State has been a surprise but is no contender, and Kansas State has only one conference win.  The Sooners failed to cover the spread by a combined 69.5 points in their last four games, or by an average of roughly 17 points per game.

And here's why Oklahoma cannot be trusted to cover the spread this week.  The Sooners have their 'game of the year' on deck against rival Oklahoma State next week in a game that could easily decide the Big 12.  Then they play TCU the following week.  I can't help but think the Sooners will be looking ahead to that 2-game stretch and overlooking Texas Tech.

That's especially the case after Texas Tech just lost 13-31 at home to Iowa State.  I think we're getting some extra point spread value because of that effort.  But the Red Raiders gave that game away with three turnovers, including a pick-six in the fourth when they were getting back into the game.  And I wouldn't be surprise if the Red Raiders were looking ahead to their game against Oklahoma.

But make no mistake, this is an improved Texas Tech team this season.  They still have the same potent offense they always do, averaging 40.3 points and 514 yards per game.  But the difference with this team is that they now have an above-average defense.  They are only allowing 5.6 yards per play against opponents that average 5.8 yards per play, holding them to 0.2 yards per play below their season average.

And Texas Tech will always be in this game against Oklahoma because they can score at will against this suspect Sooners defense.  The Sooners are allowing 34.5 points, 453.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play in conference play against a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Red Raiders are giving up a similar 34.2 points, 440.2 yards per game and 5.9 per play in conference play against a more difficult schedule of opposing offenses that has included Oklahoma State and WVU.

Last year Texas Tech proved it could keep up with Oklahoma as 16.5-point home underdogs.  The Red Raiders lost that game 59-66, but they racked up a whopping 854 total yards and 42 first downs in that losing effort.  They are going to want some revenge here and would love nothing more than to spoil Oklahoma's season.  The Sooners are walking a tight rope right now with all of their recent close wins and could crash and burn here with Oklahoma State on deck.

Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has Texas Tech ties.  He walked on for the Red Raiders as a quarterback before then-coach Mike Leach convinced him to give up playing and instead get a head start on his coaching career.  The decision helped Riley land the head coaching job with the Sooners before his 34th birthday.

"Certainly wouldn't be standing here talking to you guys without that place," Riley said. "It's always fun to play 'em. They're always somebody, when we're not playing 'em, I'm rooting for 'em."

Those are the kind of comments that make you think Riley won't be in a hurry to pour it on against Texas Tech if he gets the chance, though I don't think he will as this should be a close game throughout, just like it was when Texas Tech played Oklahoma State and WVU before.

"We need to play better," head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "I felt like, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, we had a chance to win those games. Last week, even in the fourth quarter, we were driving before that interception and had a chance to win the game. But you can't turn the ball over three times."

Plays on a road team (TEXAS TECH) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS since 1992.  Texas Tech is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games off a home loss, including 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The value on this big dog is too good to pass up this weekend.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +8

This is one of the better under-the-radar rivalries in college football between border rivals Iowa and Minnesota.  They certainly have one of the better trophies of any rivalry with the massive Floyd of Rosedale at stake.  I like getting more than a touchdown here with the underdog Minnesota Golden Gophers.

These are two similar teams who are both 4-3 right now.  Both teams tend to struggle on offense, but both have made up for it by being very good on defense.  I just feel like this game is going to be decided by a touchdown or less either way given these team profiles.

Iowa has lost three of its last four games, though all four losses did come by 7 points or less.  And four of Iowa's five games against Power 5 opponents this season have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The lone exception was the misleading 45-16 home win over lowly Illinois.  But that was a 17-13 game late in the third quarter with Illinois driving before an 89-yard interception return TD.  The Hawkeyes outscored the Fighting Illini 21-0 in the fourth, but they only outgained them by 6 yards for the game.

Minnesota has had a knack for playing in close games against Power 5 opponents too.  Three of its five games that fit that description have been decided by 7 points or less.  They beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road, but lost 17-31 at Purdue.  However, the Golden Gophers were winning that game 17-16 at Purdue with less than three minutes to go.  That was a misleading loss for them.

Minnesota's defense will keep it in this ball game.  The Golden Gophers are only giving up 19.0 points, 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Iowa is only averaging 26.1 points, 350 yards per game and 5.3 per play offensively.  Iowa is giving up 381 yards per game and 5.2 per play defensively.

Iowa hasn't been a strong against the run as it usually is.  The Hawkeyes are allowing 146 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry against teams that average 145 per game and 4.1 per carry.  So they have only been an average team against the run.  Minnesota, which rushes for 188 yards per game and 4.2 per carry, will find some success on the ground.  It also helps that the stud RB duo of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are both listed as probable this week and should both be ready to go.

Conversely, Iowa is normally a great running team, but that hasn't been the case this year.  The Hawkeyes are only averaging just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Minnesota has been able to stop the run, giving up 134 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  You have to think that the team that runs the ball better in this one will have the advantage, and based on the numbers, that edge goes to the Gophers.

PJ Fleck is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a non-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fleck is 20-8 ATS in all road lined games as a head coach.  Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Minnesota is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -6.5

No team has improved more from Game 1 to Game 7 in college football than Florida Atlantic.  It's easy to see why considering Lane Kiffin was in his first season and had a ton of stud recruits to get acclimated to the new schemes.  But now that the Owls have grasped on to those schemes, boy are they are dangerous team right now.

FAU opened 1-3 with a 19-42 loss to Navy in their opener.  They other two losses came on the road to Wisconsin and Buffalo.  But then the Owls hit conference play, and they have not only won, they have dominated the opposition in three Conference USA games.  I believe they should be among the favorites to win the conference now.

It started with a 38-20 win over Middle Tennessee as 2-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road and crushed Old Dominion 58-28 as 5.5-point favorites.  They then had a bye week before dismantling a good North Texas team 69-31 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.  The Owls have covered the spread by a combined 75 points in their last three games, or by an average of 25 points or game.

While FAU is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now, Western Kentucky is one of the most overrated.  The Hilltoppers were the kings of the conference under Jeff Brohm the last few years, but after losing him, they have simply looked lost this season.  They are 5-2 but just 1-5-1 ATS.  And their schedule couldn't have been any easier up to this point.

WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener.  Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now.  They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites.  They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-6 Ball State team that is coming off four straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49 and 41 points.

WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-7 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites.  The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites.  Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season.  Then last week WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion gives us a recent common opponent to work with here to predict how this game will play out.  Both teams played ODU on the road within the last few weeks.  FAU beat ODU 58-28, while WKU only beat ODU 35-31.  That fact alone shows who the better team is right now, and it's not really even close.

The key matchup advantage here will be FAU's elite rushing attack up against WKU's soft run defense.  The Owls have rushed for a whopping 370.6 yards per game in their last five games.  They racked up 804 total yards against North Texas last week with 357 through the air, so they are far from one-dimensional too.

Western Kentucky allowed 248 rushing yards to Charlotte and 268 to Old Dominion in its last two games.  Teams that normally average just 3.8 yards per carry on the season are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against Western Kentucky this year.  Now the Hilltoppers face their stiffest test yet against the run as the Owls average 6.2 yards per carry.

Unlike FAU's offense, WKU's offense has been one-dimensional.  The Hilltoppers average just 82 rushing yards per game and 2.5 per carry against teams that normally give up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Their offense has been limited to just 26.9 points per game against teams that normally give up 32.2 points per game.  They no longer have the high-octane offense of year's past under Brohm.

Plays against a home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  That's the great part about backing FAU here.  Once the Owls take the lead, they'll keep adding to it because the Hilltoppers cannot stop the run.  And they only need to win by a touchdown to cover this 6.5-point spread.  That won't be a problem.  Take Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Oklahoma State/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football.  They have gone 15-2 at home in Morgantown over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year and Oklahoma State in overtime the year before.  That was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.

West Virginia is 5-2 this season, but when you look at the two losses, they could easily be 7-0 and getting more respect from oddsmakers.  They lost 24-31 at Virginia Tech despite outgaining the Hokies by 123 yards and racking up 592 total yards of offense.  They also lost 24-31 at unbeaten TCU despite outgaining the Horned Frogs by 102 yards and racking up 508 total yards against their salty defense.

I think the Mountaineers are also getting overlooked here because of their narrow 38-36 win at Baylor last week.  But that was a misleading final as well.  WVU actually led that game 38-13 in the fourth quarter and simply packed it in.  It's easy to see how they were probably looking ahead to this game against Oklahoma State and simply took their foot off the gas too early.  But that close final is getting us some extra line value here.

Oklahoma State should have lost to Texas last week, settling for a field goal in overtime and then coming up with a huge interception on an awful pass by the Texas QB to win 13-10.  A closer look into that game shows why the Cowboys were shut down offensively.  They suffered cluster injuries on their offensive line as their starting center and starting guard will be out for this game against WVU.

The Cowboys' Mason Rudolph gets all the headlines, but it's WVU's Will Grier who leads the nation in touchdown passes with 26 while throwing only five interceptions.  I think he'll take this matchup personally and will have the Mountaineers hitting on all cylinders tonight.  And WVU will also want revenge after losing back-to-back games to the Cowboys, including that OT loss at home two years ago.  Their 20-37 road loss last year was misleading because the Mountaineers actually outgianed the Cowboys 421 to 358, but they committed three turnovers which was the difference.

Another key handicap for this game is the fact that this is a lookahead spot for Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys will host the rival Oklahoma Sooners next week, and don't be surprised if they are overlooking the Mountaineers and on to that huge showdown that could decide the Big 12.  WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

20* Tulsa/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -8.5

The SMU Mustangs haven't been to a bowl game since 2012.  Chad Morris is in his third season at SMU and this is by far his best team yet.  I rode the Mustangs early in the season because I loved this team coming into the year.  And I'm back on them again Friday because of the situation.

The Mustangs beat Cincinnati 31-28 on the road last week to improve to 5-2 on the season.  Now they can taste that bowl game, and they'll be super pumped to get it done here and improve to 6-2 to get bowl eligible with a win over Tulsa Friday night.

SMU opened the season by going a perfect 5-0 ATS in its first five games.  But then it has just slightly been overvalued in its past two games, losing 22-35 in Houston as 10-point dogs, and barely failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites in that 31-28 win at Cincinnati.  But that was a misleading final against Houston as they outgained the Cougars by 81 yards in that contest.  And off two straight narrow non-covers, SMU is back to being undervalued here as only 8.5-point favorites.

Tulsa is in a tough situation mentally.  This was always going to be a rebuilding season with all they lost in the offseason, but they didn't think it would be this bad.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-6 on the season and will not be going to a bowl game because they still have road games at SMU and South Florida, and a home game at Memphis left on the schedule.  So they are simply playing for pride from here on out.

Tulsa's last chance at making a run at a bowl game was last week, but they promptly lost 14-20 at Connecticut as 4-point favorites.  And that's a terrible UConn team that lost 70-31 to Memphis recently at home.  The Golden Hurricane are running on fumes right now because they still haven't had a bye week, so they will be playing for a ninth straight week, and on a short week here with this Friday game nonetheless.

Meanwhile, SMU had a bye two weeks ago before that Cincinnati game.  That gave the Mustangs a chance to recharge their batteries and make a run here down the stretch at not only a bowl bid, but possibly a conference title if things break their way.  And they are going to want revenge after a 40-43 overtime loss in Tulsa as 15.5-point underdogs last season, only adding to their motivation here.

Tulsa's defense has been atrocious.  The Golden Hurricane are allowing 37.6 points per game, 288 rushing yards per game, 10.7 yards per pass attempt, 546 total yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  SMU can basically name its score here behind an offense that is putting up 42.0 points, 497 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  The Mustangs average 313 passing yards per game and 8.2 per attempt as well.

Offensively, Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that averages 262 rushing yards per game compared to only 183 passing yards per game.  That actually makes this a decent matchup for the Mustangs, whose weakness has been against the pass.  But the Mustangs allow a respectable 150 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

And the final case for backing SMU here is how well they've played at home.  They beat a good North Texas team 54-32, crushed the Sun Belt favorite Arkansas State 44-21, and beat that same UConn team 49-28 that Tulsa just lost to.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, scoring 51.2 points per game and giving up just 23.7 points per game.  They have won all four home games by 21 points or more.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULSA) - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Tulsa is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Mustangs have only committed six turnovers in seven games this year, which is another thing I love about them.  Bet SMU Friday.

20* Stanford/Oregon State Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +21

The Oregon State Beavers played their best game of the season in their first game since Gary Andersen stepped down.  Interim coach Cory Hall took over, and the Beavers only lost 36-33 to Colorado as 9.5-point dogs last Saturday.

The Beavers really should have won that game.  They racked up 569 total yards and actually outgained Colorado by 184 yards in that contest.  Star running back Ryan Nall returned from injury and rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado, both season highs.

"We're playing good ball right now. We've just got to fine tune some things right now," Nall said following the game.

Stanford's run defense, typically a strength, is struggling this season. The Cardinal rank No. 98 nationally with 195.4 yards per game allowed.  So look for Nall to find plenty of success running the football, especially since he's fresh now after getting a bye last week to further recover from his previous injury that hampered him early in the season.

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' type of game.  The Beavers are 1-6, and they opened the season going 0-5 ATS.  But they have been undervalued in their last two games and have covered inflated numbers against both USC and Colorado, and now this is another inflated number because Stanford is has won four straight and is coming off a 49-7 beat down of Oregon.

But Stanford has not played well at all on the road.  In its three true road games, it is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS.  It lost 24-42 at USC as 3.5-point dogs, lost 17-20 at San Diego State as 8-point favorites, and only beat Utah 23-20 as closing 3-point favorites, though that line was hovering up around 7 most of the week.

Oregon State has played Stanford very tough in recent years.  They have only lost once by more than 18 points in the last five meetings.  They only lost 15-26 as 16.5-point road dogs last year, and 24-42 as 14-point home dogs in 2015.  And those were worse Oregon State teams than this 2017 version as this should have been Andersen's best team yet.  But he didn't get the most out of his players this year, and so far the switch to Hall as interim coach has brought the best out of them.  I look for that to continue this week.

And finally, Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love is questionable for this game with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision.  It would be wise for the Cardinal to rest him and get him ready for the stretch run. I like Oregon State at this +21 number whether or not Love plays, but it would obviously be a huge bonus if he doesn't.  Love is averaging 198.1 rushing yards per game and 10.3 per carry this season.  He is all they have offensively.

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games following a close loss to a conference opponent by 7 points or less.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.  Oregon State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 October games.  The Beavers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games.  The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Oregon State Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins have done a great job of getting to 4-2 this season despite the ineptitude of Jay Cutler.  But because the Dolphins gave Cutler all they money, they figured they had to stick with him.  A blessing in disguise happened last week.

Cutler was knocked out of the game against the Jets with a rib injury.  Matt Moore, who should have been starting for this team all along, promptly led the Dolphins back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 31-28.  Moore completed 13 of 21 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Now Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, and I obviously believe it's an upgrade from Cutler.  This offense just has too many weapons to be held back for much longer, and I've have to say scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter last week against a good Jets defense will be a sign of things to come for this team with Moore at the helm.

But the biggest reason the Dolphins are 4-2 right now is because they have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  They are allowing just 18.7 points, 308 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that normally average 21.9 points, 341 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The Ravens are a mess and should not be favored in this game.  They have so many injuries throughout the lineup that I'm not going to even take the time to mention them all.  Let's just say this, their have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.

The Ravens have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  They lost 44-7 to Jacksonville in London, 9-26 to Pittsburgh at home, 24-27 to Chicago at home and 16-24 to Minnesota on the road.  Their only win came against EJ Manuel and the Raiders.  And their last two games against Chicago and Minnesota were misleading.  They got two special teams touchdowns against the Bears and still lost, and they scored a meaningless TD on the final play of the game to turn a 15-point loss into an 8-point loss at Minnesota.

The Ravens still have a respectable defense that is giving up 21.1 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 19.8 points and 324 yards per game.  But their offense is atrocious, averaging just 18.6 points, 278 yards per game and 4.5 per play.  And that point total would be a lot less if not for all of their defensive and special teams TDs this year.  Joe Flacco is broken, and is missing a handful of weapons due to injury.  The offensive line has been a disaster since losing Marshall Yanda as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (MIAMI) - off one or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 66-27 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Baltimore is 1-8 ATS after going over the total in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Ravens are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Ravens need the game more, but they aren't equipped to get a win given their injury situation.  The Dolphins are far and away the better team right now.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

20* Redskins/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4.5

I tried to look for reasons to back the Redskins in this game.  I usually like backing teams playing with division revenge; a team that lost their first meeting of the season with a division opponent.  But that's the only reason I can come up with for the Redskins.  Every other factor points to the Eagles Monday night.

And I think what trumps the division revenge here is that fact that the Eagles want the game just as badly due to their struggles against the Redskins over the last few seasons.  The Eagles had lost five straight to the Redskins before winning 30-17 in Washington in Week 1 this week.  And what better way for them to get their revenge than by sweeping Washington here and burying them in the division standings.

I just think that the general public doesn't want to believe that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL.  But here we are and the Eagles have the best record in the league at 5-1.  And absolutely nothing has been fluky about their record.  They have handled their business and their only loss came to arguably the next-best team in the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 on the road.

Carson Wentz has this offense playing at a high level, averaging 27.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. The defense has been very good as well in limiting opponents to 20.3 points per game.  They have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, giving up only 66 rushing yards per game while applying consistent pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL in the injury department, the same cannot be said for the Redskins.  The Eagles are expected to get tackle Lane Johnson back from a one-game absence because they played last Thursday and have had extra time to get ready for the Redskins.  And Wentz's success has almost exclusively been tied to whether or not Johnson is in the lineup over the past few seasons.  RB Wendell Smallwood is also back in the lineup this week and adds a nice dimension to the offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Wentz should have his way with a banged-up Washington defense that allowed 24 points to CJ Beathard and the 49ers last week.  The Redskins were fortunate to escape with a 26-24 victory as 11-point favorites.  Now the Redskins are going to be without CB Josh Norman.  Their second-best CB Bashaud Breeland is questionable with a knee injury.  Starting S Deshazor Everett is also questionable, as is his backup Stefan McClure.  And DE Jonathan Allen has been placed on injured reserve.  So they could be without three starters in the secondary, and Allen's loss cannot be overstated.

On the Monday Night stage, the Eagles will not have a letdown here.  Their fans are going wild about this team and we won't hear the boo birds that we used to back when this was a mediocre team.  This is a real home-field advantage now with the way this team is playing.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +6

This inflated line is a clear overreaction from the Steelers' 19-13 win in Kansas City last week to hand the Chiefs their first loss.  I was on the Steelers in that game because I thought the Chiefs were being overvalued, but now this is a role reversal and the Steelers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  It's a letdown spot for them off such a big win.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have been waiting in the wings on their bye week getting ready to beat their most hated rivals in the Steelers.  And they are off two consecutive wins that has gotten them back into the playoff picture.  They are looking at this as their biggest game of the season considering the Steelers lead the AFC North at 4-2, and a loss here would almost surely ruin the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs.  So we're going to get a huge effort from Cincinnati here.

I've been on the Bengals in their last two games and I'll ride them for a third straight for many of the same reasons.  Andy Dalton has looked like a completely different quarterback with Bill Lazor calling the plays the last three games.   Dalton has completed 68-of-93 (73.1%) passes for 826 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  One of those picks was a drop by AJ Green.

If you dig deep into the Bengals' numbers, it's easy to see that they are much better team than their 2-3 record would indicate.  They lost on the road to the Packers in overtime, beat the Browns 31-7 on the road while outgaining them by 135 yards, then beat the Bills 20-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained Buffalo by 167 yards.

Since getting their defensive leader Vontaze Burfict back from a 3-game suspension in Week 4, the defense has really showed what it is capable of.  The Bengals allowed just 215 total yards to the Browns and 221 to the Bengals in their two games with Burfict on the field.  The Bengals are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 262.8 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  They are averaging 5.3 per play on offense, outgaining teams by 0.9 yards per play, which is the sign of an elite team.

The Steelers have also been improved defensively this season, and it's pretty much a wash there with Cincinnati, though the Bengals do have the better stats.  But this Pittsburgh offense is broken and cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number.  The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 points per game this season.  They are becoming too predictable with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Browns getting what seems like 90% of the touches.

Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most hard-luck teams in the NFL over the last few years.  They have found ways to lose close game after close game.  They opened this season 0-4 while losing three of their first four games by 3 points or less.  To say they were due for some good luck in close games would be a massive understatement.

Lo and behold, the Chargers have won back-to-back close games with a 5-point road win over the Giants and a 1-point road win over the Raiders the past two weeks.  Now the Chargers are starting to feel good about themselves and gaining confidence.  And with the Chiefs losing two in a row, they can get right back in the thick of things within the division with another win here over the Broncos.

Now they'll be motivated for revenge against their division rivals.  The Chargers lost 21-24 in Denver in their opener after missing a game-tying field goal that would have forced overtime.  They went on to miss another field goal the next week against the Dolphins that would have won it.  That's how close this team is to being 4-2.

And while the Chargers are a team on the rise, the Broncos are going the other direction.  They just suffered an inexplicable 23-10 home loss to the Giants as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football last week.  And they suffered several key injuries during that game that contributed to the loss, and those injuries continue to hamper them this week.

Trevor Siemian injured his shoulder and had to be replaced in the game.  Siemian is expected to play this week, but we'll gladly fade any quarterback with a shoulder injury.  And he lost one of his favorite targets in Emmanuel Sanders to an ankle injury.  Sanders is out this week, and his other favorite target Demaryius Thomas is hampered with a calf injury.  Not to mention, the offensive line will be without tackle Menelik Watson, and his backup Donald Stephenson is also out.

San Diego has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are animals.  The Chargers should be able to get after Siemian and take advantage of this banged up Broncos offensive line.  This is a Chargers defense that has allowed just 21.8 points and 338 yards per game this season.  They have allowed only 186 passing yards per game.  They are going to be able to stack eight in the box to stop the run because a banged-up Siemian and his limited receiving options aren't going to be able to do much through the air.  Stud corner Casey Hayward will shut down Demaryius Thomas.

Philip Rivers has some of the best weapons he has had in his career.  The Chargers have finally given Hunter Henry more playing time in favor of Antonio Gates.  Keenan Allen is a beast at receiver, and rookie first-round pick Mike Williams recently returned from injury and will only get better.  Melvin Gordon has shown that he is one of the best backs in the NFL.

The Broncos have benefited from an easy schedule.  They have played four of their first five games at home.  Their only road game resulted in a 16-26 loss to a mediocre at best Buffalo Bills team.  I know the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage these days, but the fans should be more welcoming now and appreciate the fact that the Chargers continue to fight and have won two straight coming in.  The home team has won four straight in this series.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 3-point home dogs to the Carolina Panthers.  All the Bears have done is go 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.  We'll gladly take the points here in a game the Bears likely win outright over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have gone 3-0 ATS as home this season.  They should have beaten the Falcons outright in Week 1 if not for some drops in the closing seconds.  They did beat the Steelers 23-17 as 7-point dogs.  And they only lost 17-20 to the Vikings on a last-second field goal as 3.5-point dogs.

Mitchell Trubisky showed some moxy in going into Baltimore and leading his team to a 27-24 win over the Ravens as 5-point dogs.  And the Ravens even got two special teams touchdowns in that game, which is the only reason it went to overtime.  It helps that Trubisky has a running game to rely on and take the pressure off of him.

Indeed, Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL with an average of 136.0 rushing yards per game.  Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first six games.  Tarik Cohen has been a revelation in the backfield with his running and pass-catching abilities.  And Trubisky's mobility has been a nice added dimension.

The Bears have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL.  That was a big reason for their early struggles, but most of those mistakes can be attributed to Mike Glennon.  If they can take care of the football, their defense is good enough to keep them in games.  In fact, it has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

The Bears allowed just 303 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 346 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are holding foes to 43 yards and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That is the sign of an elite defense.

The Panthers have also been great defensively this season, but that was largely due to having one of the best defenders in the NFL in Luke Kuechly back and healthy.  And Kuechly suffered another concussion last week against the Eagles.  After he went out, the Panthers fell apart, losing 23-28 at home.  

Kuechly has been ruled out for this game.  The Panthers had a good run defense with him, but without the perennial leading tackler in the NFL they won't be nearly as effective stopping the run against the Bears this week.  He is worth more to the spread than the oddsmakers have adjusted for in this matchup.

The Panthers have been well below-average this season on offense.  They are only averaging 21.3 points, 323 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing defenses who give up 22.3 points, 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play on average.  Cam Newton missed Greg Olsen, and he could also be without his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin this week, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games overall.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Chicago is flying under the radar right now and we'll continue cashing in on them while that's the case.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -3.5

The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are two popular teams in terms of the betting public.  They love to bet on both of them.  But the difference between these teams this season is that Notre Dame is for real, while USC is a complete fraud.

The Fighting Irish came into the season with limited outside expectations for the first time in a long time after going just 4-8 last season.  And now I still think they are flying under the radar despite their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start.  This team is the real deal.

The only loss came 19-20 at home to Georgia, a Georgia team that is easily one of the best four teams in college football and will likely make the four-team playoff.  The other five games the Fighting Irish have played have all resulted in blowouts by 20 or more points in their favor.  That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, a win that looks better and better as the season goes along.

Now the Fighting Irish have had two full weeks to get ready for USC after having their bye last week.  That's a huge advantage and one that is worth a lot more points to the spread than this small 3.5-point line.  Especially when you consider the Fighting Irish now get starting QB Brandon Wimbush back from a one-game absence due to injury.  They didn't need him to beat UNC 33-10 on the road two weeks ago, but they need him here against USC.

USC came into the season as a national title contender.  The Trojans have been anything but.  Despite their 6-1 record, they are just 1-6 ATS.  They lost at Washington State, needed overtime to beat Texas, and needed to stop a 2-point conversion in the final seconds last week to beat Utah 28-27 at home.

This tough schedule is starting to catch up to the Trojans.  They don't get a bye week this season, which is a huge disadvantage, especially after a tough physical game with Utah last week.  And they have a laundry list of injuries, especially up front along the offensive line.  Sam Darnold has been running for his life, and turnovers have been a big problem.  In fact, the Trojans have committed two or more turnovers in all seven games this season, and 16 turnovers overall.  That is a trend, not bad luck.

And Notre Dame has been good at forcing turnovers, getting two or more takeaways in five of six games this year and 14 takeaways overall.  They have only turned the ball over seven times.  This game is likely to be decided with turnovers, and the big edge goes to the Fighting Irish there.

What the Fighting Irish are doing in the running game is remarkable this season.  They are averaging 308 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  Wimbush has rushed for 402 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.9 per carry.  And Josh Adams has been unstoppable behind a dominant offensive line, rushing for 776 yards and five scores while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per carry.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Fighting Irish want revenge from a 27-45 road loss at USC last season.  USC is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight ATS losses where they won straight up as a favorite.  The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +7

I've backed the LSU Tigers with success each of the last two weeks.  I had them as +3.5 dogs in a 17-16 win at Florida, and +7 dogs in a 23-21 home win over Auburn last week.  But now I'm changing course and fading them this week because they are now overvalued here as 7-point road favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels.

After beating Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Tigers.  And they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for those wins.  They easily could have lost both games.  Florida missed an extra point that would have forced overtime, and Auburn blew a 20-0 lead.  I was clearly fortunate to win both of those games backing LSU.

This Ole Miss offense has been mighty impressive the last couple weeks.  They managed 429 total yards and 23 points on a very good Auburn defense on the road.  Then they beat Vanderbilt 57-35 last week while racking up 603 total yards against a decent Commodores defense.

Ole Miss boasts the best quarterback that not many have heard about in Shea Patterson.  He is completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,143 yards with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. He has three stud receivers on the outside in A.J. Brown (35 receptions, 678 yards, 6 TD), DaMarkus Lodge (24, 438, 6 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (25, 357, 4 TD).

LSU hasn't seen playmakers this good since a 7-37 road loss at Mississippi State in Week 3.  This will be just the third road game for the Tigers this season.  They are averaging just 12.0 points per game in their two true road games this season.  Their offense remains limited, which is why they cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won five straight and seven of the past eight meetings overall.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against a road team (LSU) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 71-31 (69.6%) ATS since 1992.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -11

Tulane is a team I've backed a couple times with success this year.  It's a team I really like due to head coach Willie Fritz, but I think the Green Wave are going to be in over their heads here against one of the better teams in the country in the South Florida Bulls.

South Florida has opened 6-0 this season.  The Bulls were flat in their first two games under Charlie Strong, not quite living up to expectations while failing to cover the spread.  But this team has steadily gotten better through the season and is peaking right now.  The Bulls won 47-23 over Illinois as 16.5-point favorites, beat Temple 43-7 as 17.5-point favorites, won at ECU 61-31 as 21.5-point favorites and shut down Cincinnati 33-3 as 24-point home favorites.  That's four straight covers.

Now the Bulls are only being asked to lay 11 points because they are on the road here.  This is a Bulls team that has scored at least 30 points in 23 straight games, the longest current streak at the FBS level.  The Bulls are averaging 42.8 points this season, and it's their ability to put up points in a hurry that makes this 11-point spread so low.

Strong's calling card has always been defense, and that's been the case in his first year at USF.  The Bulls rank third in the nation in rushing defense (77.8 yards/game), and No. 8 in rushing offense (293 yards/game).  Top-ranked Alabama and No. 3 Georgia are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 in both categories.  USF also ranks first in the nation in interceptions (15) and turnover margin (+13).

Tulane has been held to 21 or fewer points in four of its six games this year.  We saw what happened to the Green Wave when they took a step up in class in Week 3, losing 14-56 at Oklahoma.  They also were terrible last week in a 10-23 loss at Florida International as 12-point favorites.

This is a big matchup problem for the Green Wave.  They primarily run the football, averaging 50 rush attempts per game and 278 yards per game, compared to 15 pass attempts per game and 102 passing yards per game.  Well, as stated before, USF is third in the country against the run.  They give up just 78 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry this season.

Tulane is 6-27 ATS in its last 33 games vs. excellent offensive teams who average 450 or more yards per game.  USF is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 conference games.  Tulane is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are two one-point losses away from being 5-1 this season.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina as 9.5-point dogs, and 22-23 at UAB as 9.5-point favorites.  Those two losses look better and better by the week.  But because LA Tech is just 3-3, it is undervalued right now.

The Bulldogs will now be coming off their bye week and hungry for a victory following that loss to UAB.  And they have one of the more underrated home-field advantages of the small schools down in Ruston, Louisiana. I look for them to make easy work of the Southern Miss Eagles this week.

This is a Southern Miss team that comes in overvalued due to its 4-2 start.  But the Golden Eagles really only have one good win at UTSA 31-29.  The other three came against Southern, LA Monroe and UTEP.  They lost to the two best teams they played in Kentucky and North Texas, including a 28-43 home loss to the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech is going to want revenge from a 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last year.  But I was on Southern Miss in that game because of the spot.  LA Tech had already clinched a trip to the C-USA title game the previous week, and Southern Miss was playing for a bowl game.  It was an easy choice on the Golden Eagles are 14.5-point home dogs.  But this time around, LA Tech needs the win more and it's a better spot for them because they are coming off a bye.

Louisiana Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games off two or more consecutive unders.  The Bulldogs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a game in which they did not force a turnover.  The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -7

The UCF Knights have been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, but that only tells half the story.  Not only are they covering, they are covering by massive margins.  They have covered the point spread by a combined 102 points this season.  That's an average cover of 20 points per game.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them this week.  Now they are only being asked to lay a touchdown on the road at Navy.  I think Navy gets a lot of respect because they have been great as an underdog and as a covering team overall.  But this Navy team is more vulnerable than in year's past.

Navy is 5-1 this season, but four of those wins came by 10 points or less, including two by a combined five points.  And they have played an extremely soft schedule against FAU, Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Air Force and Memphis.  I'd say Memphis was the best team they've played, and they lost 27-30 to them last week.

What's great about this game is we already have some common opponents to compare these teams.  UCF won on the road at Cincinnati 51-23 in a game that was cut short by rain.  Navy only beat Cincinnati 42-32 at home.  UCF crushed Memphis 40-13 at home, while Navy lost at Memphis 27-30 on the road.

This is a UCF offense that is humming along, averaging 50.6 points per game. 547 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play.  The Knights will find plenty of success against a Navy defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game, 6.2 yards per play and 8.5 yards per pass.

The reason UCF is probably the best team in the AAC is because it plays defense.  The Knights only allow 16.8 points per game and 5 yards per play.  They are only giving up 110 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  This game will be a mismatch athletically on both sides of the ball as the UCF team speed will be the difference.

Scott Frost has brought his offense in from Oregon and it is hitting on all cylinders right now.  Frost actually played scout-team quarterback for UCF this week, impersonating Navy's Zach Abbey and the triple-option.  This UCF team is having a lot of fun right now and they just have a great vibe to them with Frost.  He's clearly not going to be around much longer with the kind of success he's had here, taking a team that was 0-12 in 2015 to one that is now a contender to get the Group of 5 New Year's bowl game.

"He's running, dropping dimes," linebacker Chequan Burkett said. "You just think in your head, 'Hey man, this guy won a national championship doing this, so it's a wonderful experience to be able to face a quarterback who really did this and happens to be our head coach. He's giving us a great look. If he puts on shoulder pads and full gear, you'd really think he'd want to play us."

For Frost, the decision to run the scout team was an easy one. With both Georgia Tech and Navy on the 2017 schedule -- UCF visits the Midshipmen on Saturday -- Frost and his staff knew they had to start practice against the option months in advance. Most teams do that, just to get their teams acquainted with the offense.

"There is an art to playing option quarterback," he says. "I can't tell you how many reps I have at doing that kind of stuff. Even though I'm slow and old, it's probably still better than somebody that's doing it for the first time."

"He wanted to make sure that when the time came for us to play an option team that it wasn't a surprise," linebacker Shaquem Griffin said. "We didn't understand then, 'Why are we doing this now?' But going through the first day of practice Monday and everybody flying around and fitting the right spots, it showed what we did in spring and summer is paying off. I feel we're a step ahead. It's not like we're learning something new."

They'll be ready for the triple option Saturday.  And with the athletic mismatch on the field you'll witness this weekend, needing UCF to only win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is a gift from oddsmakers.  Take UCF Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Nevada +7

The Nevada Wolf Pack are clearly a bet-on team moving forward.  They have opened 1-6 this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But what I've seen from them the last two weeks is a good sign of things to come in the near future.

It was always going to take some time for first-year head coach Jay Norvell to get this team firing on all cylinders.  He had to implement his Air-Raid offense, and after a slow start, this offense is really firing right now.

Two weeks ago Nevada beat Hawaii 35-21 at home as 5.5-point underdogs.  The offense racked up a whopping 566 total yards in the win.  Then last week was even more impressive as the Wolf Pack nearly pulled the upset as 24-point road dogs at Colorado State, only losing 42-44.  They threw for a ridiculous 508 yards in that game and are clearly playing well offensively.

This is an Air Force team that is way down this season with a 2-4 start to the year.  The only two wins were against Virginia Military and UNLV.  The Falcons had to erase a 27-7 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30 as 9-point home favorites.  They expanded a lot of energy with that comeback, so this will be a tough spot for them on this short week.  And they have a huge game against rival Army on deck next week, so it's also a bit of a look-ahead spot.

This is an Air Force defense that has allowed at least 28 points in five straight games.  And they gave up 56 to New Mexico, 48 to Navy and 30 to UNLV the last three weeks.  So there's no question this Air Raid Nevada offense is going to be able to move the ball and score points at will on what is an inexperienced Air Force defense that returned just one starter from last year.

Plays against road favorites (AIR FORCE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Air Force is 0-7 ATS against teams who give up 425 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Wolf Pack tonight.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Lafayette +13

This Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State matchup is one of the better rivalries in the Sun Belt.  And I'm going to back the double-digit dog in this game for that reason and many more.

Arkansas State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt title for five of the last six years.  But the one team they cannot figure out is Lafayette.  The Rajin' Cajuns have actually gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Red Wolves.  They pulled the 24-19 upset as 5-point dogs last year, preventing the Red Wolves from an outright title.  And only once in the last nine meetings has Arkansas State beaten Lafayette by more than 10 points.

I really like what I've seen from this Lafayette team since switching to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games, beating Idaho 21-16 as 6-point road dogs, and Texas State 24-7 as 14-point home favorites.  As you can see, their defense has played much better the last two weeks as well.

Nunez is completing 64.8% of his passes for 732 yards and a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has four reliable targets who have all caught at least 17 balls this year, and three of them are averaging at least 13.6 yards per reception.  Nunez is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  And Trey Ragas has held down the fort in the backfield, rushing for 528 yards and seven scores on 6.4 per carry.

I believe Arkansas State comes in way overvalued off back-to-back wins blowout wins over two of the worst teams in college football, and both were very misleading finals.  They beat Georgia Southern 43-25 on the road despite getting outgained by 112 yards and giving up 493 total yards.  Then last week they beat Coastal Carolina 51-17 at home, but only outgained them by 37 yards.  Their other win came against FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff for their 3-2 record.

Lafayette is in a huge scheduling advantage here.  The Rajin' Cajuns played last Thursday against Texas State, while the Red Wolves played on Saturday against Coastal Carolina.  That means Lafayette will have a full week to prepare, two more days than Lafayette, which will have had only four days to prepare.  I do not believe oddsmakers are factoring in this situation in the inflated number.

The Rajin' Cajuns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Arkansas State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a blowout home win by 28 or more points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams who complete 62% or more of their passes.  Take Lafayette Thursday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start to the season.  They are the only team that's left unbeaten both straight up and against the spread.  With that fact comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Chiefs simply cannot live up to moving forward.

Now the Chiefs are being asked to lay a whopping 5 points at home against a Steelers team that I'm not so sure isn't still the best team in the AFC.  The Chiefs were lucky to cover against both the Eagles and Redskins in their two home games this season.  They were outgained by the Eagles by 62 yards, and they got a fluke fumble return TD on the last play of the game to cover against the Redskins.

Now this is a very tough spot for the Chiefs.  They have played back-to-back National TV games last Monday against the Redskins and then last week against the Texans.  That game turned into a 42-34 shootout thanks to some injuries on both sides.  That game took a lot out of the Chiefs, and it really showed up in the injury department.

Receiver Chris Conley was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  Fellow receiver Albert Wilson suffered a leg injury and is questionable.  Tight end Travis Kelce was knocked out of the Houston game with a concussion and is questionable.  Defensively, both LB Justin Houston and LB Dee Ford, their two best pass rushers, are questionable with calf and hip injuries.

The Steelers are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field this week and redeem themselves from their ugly 9-30 home loss to the Jaguars last week.  Big Ten threw five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away.  It was a clear flat spot for the Steelers off their big 26-9 win in Baltimore the previous week, and with the Chiefs on deck.

Now the Steelers will get back to work this week and come back with a much better performance.  I expect them to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell at least 30 times after he did not get enough touches against the Jaguars due to game flow.  They are much better when he gets the rock.  His two biggest workloads came in identical 26-9 wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.

What has been most impressive about the Steelers is their defense.  They are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.  Alex Smith won't keep humming along, especially with all the injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers simply have the Chiefs number.  They have gone 5-1 in the last six meetings over the past six seasons.  They won 18-16 on the road in the playoffs last year, and 43-14 at home earlier in the regular season, outgaining the Chiefs by a combined 241 yards in the process.  The Steelers have clearly figured out Andy Reid's offense, limiting the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game in the last six meetings.

Pitt is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams are a legitimate NFL team this season.  I think they are flying under the radar right now as they could easily be 5-0 rather than 3-2.  They have nice road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, as well as a blowout home win over the Colts.

The Rams did lose 20-27 at home to the Redskins in Week 2, but the Redskins are clearly better than most thought they would be.  Many are writing off the Rams because of their 16-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, but if they played that game 10 times, the Rams would have won nine of them when you dig deeper into the stats.

The Rams outgained the Seahawks by 134 yards.  They drove the ball inside the Seattle red zone five times, and only scored 3 points on those five trips.  They missed a short field goal, Todd Gurley fumbled through the end zone for a touchback, and Cooper Kupp dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown on the final drive.  The Rams were the better team, which just shows how far they've come.

The Jaguars are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  They are coming off a signature 30-9 road win at Pittsburgh in which they intercepted Big Bet five times, returning two of those for touchdowns.  Blake Bortles only attempted one pass in the second half and finished 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards with an interception in the win.  So it was nothing he did.

This Jaguars offense is too one-dimensional, depending basically solely on Leonard Fourtette to run the ball.  We saw what happened when the Jaguars fell behind in their only home game this season in Week 2 against the Titans.  Bortles had to try to throw them back in it, and he couldn't do it in a 16-37 loss.

Both teams have elite defenses, but the difference in this game is the offenses.  The Rams are far from one-dimensional as Sean McVay has brought his offense to this team, and they have taken off.  The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game, 382 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL this season.

This line indicates that the line should be about a pick 'em on a neutral field.  And I have no doubt the Rams are the better team and would unload on them as a favorite on a neutral.  Giving the Jaguars 2.5 points for home-field advantage is too much because they have actually been much better on the road than at home in recent years.  And the Jaguars have been terrible as a favorite, but great as a dog.

The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  They just can't seem to be able to put together two good games in a row.  And this is a clear 'buy low' on the Rams and 'sell high' on the Jags opportunity.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Plays on underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10

The Houston Texans are the flavor of the month right now because of Deshaun Watson becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to account for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.  And now the Texans are being asked to lay double-digits, something they certainly aren't used to doing at any point in franchise history.

The problem is that the injuries to the Texans defense are getting overlooked.  They lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in the first quarter against the Chiefs last week, and proceeded to give up a whopping 42 points.  Fellow starters Brian Cushing and Kevin Johnson are also out.

The Browns are much better than their 0-5 record would indicate.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 16 yards per game this season.  They are only getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Texans are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play this season, so by those numbers alone, these are closer to even teams than this line would suggest.

The problem for the Browns has been turnovers, and mostly from Deshon Kizer.  They have committed a whopping 12 turnovers already and are -6 in turnover margin.  Well, they have decided to move on from Kizer to Kevin Hogan, who has taken much better care of the football and understands the importance of it dating back to his time at Stanford, where he had similar numbers to Andrew Luck.

Last week against the Jets, the Browns lost 14-17 but the stats show they should have won by a big margin.  The Browns outgained the Jets by a whopping 207 yards in that game.  Hogan was on point, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns with one interception after replacing Kizer.  He nearly led them back to a victory from a 17-7 deficit.  I certainly think this team offense is better with Hogan, if for nothing else the fact that he values the football.

The Browns have actually been very good defensively this season.  They are giving up just 305 total yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's key here because they're up against a Texans team that likes to run the ball, averaging 31 attempts for 141 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Winless teams who are 0-5 or worse are 50-18 ATS when facing an opponent in non-division road games.  That angle improves to 39-7 ATS when the 0-5 team has a spread winning percentage of 33% or worse.  The Browns get two of their best players back from injury this week in LB Jamie Collins and WR Kenny Britt as well.    I like Cleveland much better in this role where it is getting double-digit points, rather than the role it has been in the last three weeks where it basically had to win outright to cover.  Take the Browns Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5

I grabbed the New Orleans Saints at -3.5 on Monday not only because I loved them at that price, but also because I figured that the line would move quickly in their favor.  And it has as it's up to -4.5 and -5 as of this writing.  I still like them at anything under a touchdown, but obviously the -3.5 line is a stronger play. It benefits you to get a subscription so you can get in on these lines as soon as I release them, rather than buying the play the day of the game and getting worse lines.

The reason to love the Saints is the spot.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for the Lions.  And they needed it after playing their last game in London.  Teams playing in London get to choose whether or not they want the bye the next week, and the Saints chose wisely.

I've used the Saints as a 25* play in each of their last two games, and cashed them both easily.  I felt like they were way undervalued after two brutal games to open the season at Minnesota and at home against New England.  And that proved to be the case as they went into Carolina and won 34-13 as 5-point dogs, and won 20-0 in London over the Dolphins as 4-point favorites, covering the spread by a combined 42 points.

Now the Saints opened as -3 and -3.5 favorites at home against the Lions this week, which continues to show how undervalued they are.  I rank the Saints as a better team than the Lions, and when you factor in home-field advantage and the fact that they are coming off their bye week, this line should have come out at closer to -6.

It's clear that the Saints are improved defensively this season after allowing just 6.5 points and 237 yards per game in their last two contests.  And the team is getting healthy as a whole with very few significant injuries.  The Saints feel like the NFC South is for the taking, and they are playing with a sense of urgency right now knowing that Drew Brees doesn't have too many seasons left, though he continues to play at an extremely high level.

The Lions are complete frauds in my opinion.  They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+8), and they already have 11 takeaways this season.  That's not going to last.  The Saints have done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season, committing zero turnovers in their first four games.  They won't be giving it away to the Lions this week either.

The Lions have now trailed in 20 of their last 22 games dating back to the start of last season, and most of those they actually trailed in the fourth quarter.  The only exception this year was their game against the 0-5 New York Giants.  Matthew Stafford has been working miracles with this team, but now even Stafford is banged up with his status in question for Sunday.

Stafford suffered both ankle and hamstring injuries in a 27-24 home loss to the Panthers last week.  That was another game they trailed 27-10 and was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And even if Stafford goes, he will be hobbled.  He would also be starting behind a banged-up, terrible offensive line that has allowed a whopping 12 sacks over the last two weeks combined.

On Monday, Stafford told WJR Radio in Detroit that he doesn't know if he'll play due to the the ankle/leg injuries.  And he's not the only injury concern.  Breakout WR Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable. DT Haloti Ngata has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury suffered last week, and LB Paul Worrilow remains out indefinitely.

And the final handicap in this game is the revenge factor.  The Saints are actually 0-3 against the Lions the last three seasons, including an embarrassing 28-13 home loss to them last year.  The Saints had won their previous four games against the Lions by an average of 21.0 points per game.  I think we see them getting back to that kind of form here and winning in blowout fashion.

Sean Payton is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. mistake-prone teams averaging 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home loss by 3 points or less.  The Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years.

Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +13

I was way down on Western Michigan coming into the season and I've seen nothing to change my mind thus far.  The Broncos are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS.  Their only two victories by double-digits came at home against terrible Wagner and Ball State teams.

Western Michigan only beat Idaho 37-28 as 17-point home favorites.  Then last week they needed a whopping seven overtimes to beat Buffalo 71-68 on the road as 7-point favorites.  That's the key here is that the Broncos are going to be fatigued and won't have much left in the tank after playing seven overtimes.  They can't be laying two touchdowns to Akron here.

This is an Akron team that I believed to be one of the better squads in the MAC coming into the season.  And after a brutal non-conference schedule that featured losses to Penn State and Iowa State, the Zips have fared much better against similar competition.

They beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff 52-3.  They went on the road and only lost 17-22 as 17-point dogs at Troy, which is a Troy team that upset LSU on the road.  They won 34-23 as 3-point favorites at Bowling Green, and then crushed Ball State 31-3 as 4-point favorites last week.  They have now covered three in a row, yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here.

Akron is one of the few MAC teams that plays solid defense.  The Zips are only giving up 24.0 points per game this season.  The Broncos have been sub-par defensively, giving up 31.7 points and 5.8 yards per play.  And the Broncos haven't been good as their offensive numbers would suggest.  They are averaging 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  This is just a mediocre MAC team that isn't nearly as good with the losses of PJ Fleck and all of their best playmakers on offense.

Western Michigan is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of the last six games.  Terry Bowden is 9-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of Akron.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I just think WMU is still getting too much respect for what it did last season.  Roll with Akron Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State +17.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week after a brutal stretch to start the season.  They played two improved Group of 5 teams in New Mexico State and San Diego State, an improved Texas Tech team on the road, and then Pac-12 powers Oregon and Stanford.  They needed a bye week.

It's clear that this team has been improving.  Only losing by 7 at Texas Tech is no shame, and ASU came back to upset Oregon 37-35 as 15-point home dogs.  Keep in mind that was a healthy Oregon team, not the one that we've seen so banged up the last few weeks.  And a 24-34 loss as 17-point road dogs at Stanford was a quality performance heading into their bye.

Washington is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #5 national ranking.  The schedule couldn't have been any easier for the Huskies up to this point.  They have faced Rutgers, Montana, Fresno State, Colorado, Oregon State and California.  Those are three of the worst teams in the Pac-12, an FCS opponent, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and a mediocre Mountain West squad.  To compare, ASU has faced four teams that are better than any team Washington has played.

Now the Huskies are being asked to lay a whopping 17.5 points on the road against an ASU team that has been very good at home in Pac-12 play.  The Sun Devils are 21-11 straight up in their last 32 Pac-12 home games.  And Arizona State hasn't been this big of a home underdog since 1996.

it is almost shocking how one-sided this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, Arizona State is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Washington.  Granted, most of those were before Chris Petersen arrived, but it's noteworthy nonetheless.

Arizona State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Todd Graham is 17-6 ATS as a home dog in all games he has coached.  The Sun Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +7

The Auburn Tigers are way overvalued right now.  They have won four straight by 14 points or more coming in.  Their least impressive was a 24-10 home win over Mercer as a 41-point favorite, but then they beat Missouri 51-14 on the road, Mississippi State 49-10 at home and Ole Miss 44-23 at home.

Sure, they took care of business, but who have they really beaten so far?  Missouri is awful, Mississippi State was tired after facing LSU and Georgia the previous two weeks, and Ole Miss was coming off a 66-3 loss to Alabama.  The only good team they've faced that wasn't in a bad spot was Clemson, and they lost 6-14 while getting held to 117 total yards.

So it's time to 'sell high' on Auburn, while we 'buy low' on LSU.  LSU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Nobody wants to back this team right now after they were upset 21-24 by Troy.  But I jumped on them last week as 3.5-point road dogs at Florida, and a lot of big money was on them as well because they ended up -2 favorites.  LSU showed some great fight in a 17-16 road victory.

I think LSU will continue to fight for Ed Orgeron this week now.  This is a huge game against a Top 10 opponent, and Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  And just to show you how the perception on these teams has changed since the beginning of the season, the Game of the Year line on this game was LSU -7.  So this line has swung 14 points in Auburn's favor.  I agree it should have swung some, but this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  I think LSU is showing tremendous value as a touchdown home dog now.

LSU is 45-7 straight up at home since 2010.  Only two of those seven losses have come by more than a touchdown.  That makes for a 50-2 system backing LSU based on their home record since 2010 and factoring in this 7-point point spread.  You're not going to find a better value in the SEC the rest of the season.

Plays on home teams (LSU) - after four or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -2.5

Butch Jones was able to keep his job through the bye week despite a 41-0 home loss to Georgia last time out. Look for these players to rally around Jones and for this to be a 'win one for the gipper' type of performance.  Having two weeks to correct things should have Tennessee coming out and playing its best game of the season Saturday at home against South Carolina.

The bye week also gave Jones the perfect opportunity to make the switch at quarterback.  He'll be going with freshman Jarrett Guarantano this week and benching junior Quenten Dromandy, who simply wasn't getting it done.  Guarantano was the 9th-best QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, including the No. 1 dual-threat QB. He is more in the Joshua Dobbs mold of years' past.

"Jarrett's a good story because he's just unselfish," fifth-year senior wide receiver Josh Smith said. "You have a guy that, they're both competing, and you give the job to another guy, but he keeps competing. And that just shows his character. I think highly of him and I think he's growing and I think he's just going to keep getting better and better."

South Carolina may be the most fraudulent 4-2 team in the country.  The Gaoecocks are getting outgained by 55 yards per game on the season.  They were outgained by 258 yards despite beating NC State.  They were outgained by 64 yards at Missouri, which is a terrible Missouri team.  They lost 13-23 at home to Kentucky, barely beat LA Tech 17-16 at home, and their 48-22 win over Arkansas last week has them way overvalued.  The Gamecocks had three defensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 28 yards.

Tennessee is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with South Carolina, winning by an average of 12 points per game.  The Vols are 38-19 ATS in their last 57 games following two more more consecutive ATS losses.  The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -3

I was in utter shock when I saw this line move from the opener of West Virginia -7 down to -3 early in the week.  The value on the Mountaineers -3 is too good to pass up.  I just think that these early bettors are dead wrong about Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders aren't nearly as good as they're getting credit for.

They just moved into the Top 25 at #24 this week.  We've seen this story before when a team not used to being in the Top 25 falls flat the week after getting ranked.  I can certainly see that being the case here.

The Red Raiders are getting too much credit for their 7-point home loss to Oklahoma State.  That was one of the more misleading finals of the year.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Oklahoma State had 13 drives, 12 of which went inside the Texas Tech 20-yard line.  Five of them wound up in chip shot field goals, and they missed two.  Another was a 97-yard pick-6 for a TD by the Red Raiders.  So that only being a 7-point game was a fluke.

Texas Tech hasn't beaten anyone of any relevance with narrow wins over Houston and Arizona State, and blowout wins over Eastern Washington and Kansas.  The Red Raiders have forced 14 turnovers already this season after forcing only 13 all of late year.  They can't keep up this pace.  12 of those turnovers came against FCS Eastern Washington, Kansas and a Houston team that was in the midst of a QB controversy.

I've been extremely impressed by West Virginia this year.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents.  They really should be 5-0, but the fact that they are just 3-2 has them flying under the radar.  They outgained VA Tech by 123 yards in a 24-31 loss.  Then last week in their most impressive performance, they outgained No. 6 TCU by 102 yards on the road in another 7-point loss.

The Mountaineers racked up 592 yards in Virginia Tech and another 508 on TCU, which are two of the better defenses in the country.  Florida transfer Will Grier has been lighting it up with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  He has two receivers in Gary Jennings and David Stills who are on pace for 1,000-yard receiving seasons.  RB Justin Crawford is on pace for 1,000 rushing yards while averaging 7.0 per carry.  This offense is loaded, and the defense has been better than expected.

Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 at home over the last three seasons.  Their two losses came to Oklahoma last year, and that was an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.  And they lost to then-No. 21 Oklahoma State in overtime back in 2015.

The Mountaineers have won the last two meetings, including a 48-17 blowout as 3-point road favorites last year.  I think they win in blowout fashion at home in Morgantown once again this time around.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* Washington State/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +14

The Washington State Cougars are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start while being ranked No. 8 in the country.  But they couldn't have played an easier schedule up to this point, and they have caught some unbelievable breaks along the way, which we'll get to.

For starters, Washington State opened with five straight home games.  They beat Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada in non-conference.  And they were trailing by 21 at home to Boise State before starting QB Brett Rypien got hurt, and they had a miraculous comeback to win 47-44 against a Boise team that simply isn't very good this year.

Their first Pac-12 game came at home against USC on a Friday night in front of a rowdy home crowd.  They were trailing in that game 17-10, and then all of a sudden USC lost three starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Trojans only managed 10 points over the final 40 minutes of the game as Sam Darnold was under duress behind that shaky O-Line.

The breaks continue last week for the Cougars as they faced an Oregon team with a third-string quarterback and several other key injuries.  They took advantage and won as they should have 33-10 on the road as 1-point favorites.  Now I think they are getting way too much respect here as 14-point road favorites at California.

The Golden Bears have had to play the much tougher schedule.  They opened 3-0 in the non-conference beating UNC on the road, and Weber State and Ole Miss at home despite being dogs in two of those games.  Then they played a great game against a healthy USC team, but lost 20-30 as 17-point home dogs despite committing six turnovers in that game.

Then they played a healthy Oregon team on the road and lost 24-45 as 17-point dogs before falling 7-38 on the road as 29-point dogs at Washington last week.  Those may have been the three best teams in the Pac-12 at the time they faced them, and now after two non-covers in a row, I think the Golden Bears come into this game undervalued.

Justin Wilcox, the former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, was one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  Turning around a Cal defense that gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game last season was going to be no easy task, and it's remarkable what he's been able to do on that side of the ball already in his first season.

This is a Cal defense that is only giving up 5.5 yards per play against team that average 6.4 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.9 yards per play below their season average.  To compare, Cal allowed 6.7 yards per play last season.  Washington State's numbers are skewed on both sides of the ball because of the lack of competition and the scheduling breaks thus far.

Cal has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Washington State straight up.  Washington State has only been a double-digit road favorite six times in the last 25 years!  Mike Leach is 4-14 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Leach is 3-14 ATS in his last 17 road games off three or more consecutive wins.  Take California Friday.

20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +22.5

We're starting to see the Clemson Tigers having to lay some inflated prices here of late because of all of the love they are getting from the public.  They have gone just 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall, and now they are overvalued once again as 22.5-point road favorites at Syracuse Friday night.

They beat Boston College 34-7 as 33-point favorites three weeks ago.  But that was a 7-7 game entering the 4th quarter.  They won and covered at VA Tech 31-17 as 7-point road favorites two weeks ago, but that was a misleading final as the Tigers were held to 332 total yards and outgained by 10 yards by the Hokies, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  Then last week they only won 28-14 at Wake Forest as 21-point favorites.

This is an upstart Syracuse team that is on the rise in the second season under Dino Babers.  They returned a whopping 19 starters this season and are clearly improved.  They have been competitive in every game, and their performances against the top teams they've faced show that they can hang with Clemson, especially in a nationally televised home game inside what will be a rowdy Carrier Dome Friday night.

Syracuse only lost 26-35 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 30 yards in that game.  More impressive may have been their 25-33 loss at NC State as 14-point dogs as they were only outgained by 18 yards in that game.  That's an NC State team that is among the best in the ACC this year, and that was on the road.

I think a big reason this line is so big is because Clemson won 54-0 at home over Syracuse last year.  I remember that game quite well because I was on Syracuse.  And when starting QB Eric Dungy was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, I knew I was in trouble.  Dungey means everything to this team.  He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 325 yards and eight scores.  They would be in trouble without him.

Now it's time for Dungey and Syracuse to redeem themselves.  They will be talking about that 54-0 loss all week leading up to this game.  They will be desperate to show that they are a much better team than what they showed last year.  And playing at home will help.  After all, Syracuse only lost 27-37 as 30-point home dogs to a very good Clemson team the season prior in 2015.

It's worth nothing that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury against Wake Forest last week.  He is probable to start, but he won't be at 100% if he does, and his mobility is his biggest weapon.  "He'll be day-to-day, and we'll see how he progresses through the week," Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. "If he's ready to play, he'll go play. If he's not, we'll play the next guy."

Clemson is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following three straight conference wins.  Syracuse is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Texas State/UL Lafayette CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 56

We have a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country here in UL Lafayette and Texas State.  I believe the oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game, and the OVER 56 is a very nice bet here in Sun Belt action Thursday night.

The UL Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been in high-scoring games all season, other than last week against Idaho, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Lafayette is 4-1 to the OVER.  It is scoring 37.0 points per game this season, while giving up a whopping 46.2 points per game.  Thats an average of 83 combined points per game, which is 27 points more than this posted total of 56.

Texas State is giving up 33.7 points per game overall with a terrible defense.  The offense has not been good for the Bobcats, averaging just 14.5 points per game.  That's a combined 52 points per game, which is only 4 points less than this posted total of 56.  And I think the Bobcats will certainly get right offensively against this horrid Lafayette defense.

The Bobcats have gone OVER the total in each of their last three games.  They allowed 44 points to UTSA, 45 to Wyoming and 45 to LA Monroe.  This Louisiana offense should post a huge number and cover most of this OVER on their own, especially since they've made to the switch to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  Numez is completing 65.6% of his passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns with one INT while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.  The previous starter Jordan Davis was only completing 58.9% and averaging 6.3 per attempt.

The last two meetings at Lafayette have been extremely high-scoring.  Lafayette won 49-27 in 2015 for 76 combined points, and 48-24 in 2013 for 72 combined points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are averaging 50.5 points per game at home this season and giving up 52.0 points per game.  The Bobcats are allowing 41.0 points point game on the road.

Lafayette is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games off an upset win as a road dog.  Lafayette is 35-13 OVER in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  Texas State is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 road games versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt No-Brainer on South Alabama +17

The Troy Trojans are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in program history, winning 24-21 outright at LSU as 20.5-point road underdogs last time out.  Now they've been getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they won't have their best effort as they'll feel like they can just show up and win.

We saw a similar situation last year in which Troy was coming off a huge win over Appalachian State.  They moved into the Top 25 after that win, then promptly lost at home to Arkansas State 3-35 as 8-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 40 points.  The Trojans cannot be laying this kind of price given the terrible spot they are in mentally.

The South Alabama Jaguars have played a brutal schedule as they opened with Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.  They got right in a 45-0 win over Alabama A&M the next week, then lost in overtime to Idaho before falling 16-34 at LA Tech.  But that was a 17-16 game against LA Tech in the fourth quarter and a misleading final.

South Alabama gets some good news this week as starting QB Cole Garvin will be in the lineup.  He has missed 2.5 games due to injury, and that has been a big reason for their early struggles, along with the tough schedule.  I look for a big effort from the Jaguars here against their in-state rivals.

Troy has been overvalued all season up until that LSU game, going 1-4 ATS in its five games.  It only won 27-24 at New Mexico State as 9-point favorites, and 22-17 at home over Akron as 17-point favorites.  Those two results right there show that the Trojans can't be laying these big numbers.

This has become a bigger rivalry than most know, and I love big dogs in rivalry games.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Alabama only lost 34-33 at Troy in 2013 as 3.5-point dogs, won 27-13 at home in 2014 as 16-point favorites, won 24-18 at Troy as 6-point dogs in 2014, and covered as 9.5-point home dogs last year in a 21-28 loss.   As you can see, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, and three of those 7 points or fewer.

Plays on road teams (S ALABAMA) - after having lost three out of their last four games, in the first half of the season are 84-46 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games in the first half of the season.  Troy is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet South Alabama Wednesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are coming off a bye week having last played on Friday, September 22nd in a gutsy 30-24 road win to improve to 4-0 on the season.  They lost starting QB Tyler Huntley in the first half of that game, yet still found a way to win.  Now they'll be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this showdown with Stanford.

It helps that the Utes have a veteran backup in Troy Williams, who started all 13 games for them last year while leading the Utes to a 9-4 campaign.  He is one of the best backups in the country and isn't a very big downgrade at all from Huntley.  I think oddsmakers are adjusting way too much here for the Huntley injury.

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It feels like the fans are right on top of you because they are so close to the field.  The Utes have gone 12-3 at home over the past three seasons, and all three losses have come by a touchdown or less.

I think the Bryce Love Heisman hype after back-to-back huge games has Stanford overrated right now.  But he did his damage against two of the worst defenses in the country in UCLA and Arizona State the past two weeks.  Now Love will be up against a stout Utah defense that is allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Stanford is still limited in the passing game, only once topping 173 passing yards this season, and that was in the opener against Rice.  I think Utah's ability to stop love and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to them not only covering, but likely winning this game outright Saturday night.

Kyle Whittingham has had Stanford's number in recent meetings.  The Utes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs in 2014, and outright as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013.  They simply match up well with the Cardinal because they play similar styles.

And one thing that always gets overlooked by bettors with Utah is their dominant special teams, which is one of the best units in the land year after year.  Reigning Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowky is averaging 46.8 yards per punt, and the Utes are giving up -1 net yards per punt this season, so they're fielding well.  Also, Matt Gay is 14-for-14 on field goal attempts this season, leading the nation in scoring.  Special teams could easily be the difference in this type of game.

Utah is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 games as a dog, including 36-19 ATS in its last 55 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Utes are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Take Utah Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns are improving rapidly right now under Tom Herman.  After losing to Maryland in the opener, they've gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, covering the spread by a combined 50 points in the process.  They beat San Jose State 56-0, took USC to overtime on the road, and picked up a nice 17-7 road win at Iowa State in their Big 12 opener.  They remain undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites against Kansas State.

That game against Iowa State was playing last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week to get ready for this game, which is certainly an advantage.  I think the Longhorns will be focused for this game because they are just 2-2, whereas if they were 4-0 they could be looking ahead to Oklahoma.  Herman won't let them look ahead to that game given the situation.  This 3.5-point spread looks short to me.

Kansas State has been shaky the last two weeks against two mediocre teams.  Their lost 7-14 at Vanderbilt, and that loss looks even worse after Vandy lost by 59 to Alabama and 14 to Florida.  Then they only beat a winless Baylor team 33-20 at home last week.  They were actually outgained by 31 yards by the Bears.

The Wildcats are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball.  In the last two games against Vanderbilt and Baylor, they have gone a combined 17-of-45 passing for 195 yards.  That's just 38% completions and 98 passing yards per game.

That makes this an excellent matchup for the Longhorns.  Texas has held its last three opponents to just 123 rushing yards on 75 attempts, or a measly 1.6 yards per carry.  Their defensive front seven is clearly one of the best units in the country, and that will be the key to them winning and covering this measly 3.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games off a two-game road trip.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* LSU/Florida SEC No-Brainer on LSU +3.5

The LSU Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed with their 21-24 home loss to Troy as 20.5-point favorites.  They have been taking grief in the media all week, and they really just can't wait to get out and hit somebody Saturday to take out their frustration.  I fully expect the best performance of the season from LSU given their mental state coming into this game against Florida.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were upset 10-16 at home by Florida as 13.5-point favorites last year.  They haven't forgotten about it.  There's no way they should have lost that game either as they outgained the Gators by 153 yards for the game.  Their red zone struggles were the difference, and Florida's only TD was a fluke 98-yard TD pass to Tyrie Cleveland.

The Gators continue to be the most lucky team in college football.  They could easily be 0-4 right now instead of 3-1.  They won on a hail mary on the final play against Tennessee, scored in the closing seconds to beat Kentucky 28-27, and only led Vanderbilt 31-24 in the final seconds before breaking a long TD run when they could have just run out the clock.

And those wins clearly don't look that good now.  Tennessee was beaten 41-0 at home by Georgia, Vanderbilt was beaten 59-0 at home by Alabama, and Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 at home last week.  This Florida team is a fraud, and it showed against a team of LSU's caliber in their opener in a 17-33 loss to Michigan.  The Gators were outgained by 241 yards by the Wolverines.

This is where all those Florida injuries and suspensions catches up to them like it did against a team the class of Michigan.  Plus, the Gators are now expected to be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (15 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TD, 21.7/reception), who is doubtful with an ankle injury suffered in that win over Vanderbilt last week.  To say the Gators are lacking playmakers on offense would be a massive understatement.

Conversely, LSU gets some good news on the injury front as star RB Derrius Guice is probable to play Saturday.  He sat out last week's game against Troy, which was a big reason they were upset.  He rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.6/carry last year.  Not to mention, fellow starters DE Rashard Lawrence and LB Corey Thompson are both probable to play as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  LSU is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  LSU is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida. Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +17.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a huge flat spot here against Kansas.  After pulling off the 27-24 upset at Houston, the Red Raiders had their shot to upset Oklahoma State at home last week, but fell just short with a 35-42 loss.  After playing one of the top teams in the country, they certainly aren't going to be able to get up for Kansas this week.

And I think the Red Raiders are getting way too much respect for what they've done the last two weeks.  I think Houston is way down this season compared to last year, and a closer look at the Oklahoma State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Texas Tech had a 95-yard INT return TD, and Oklahoma State settled for several short field goals, missing a couple of them as well.

One key to this game is that Texas Tech is going to be without leading receiver Keke Coutee, who suffered a knee injury against Oklahoma State and is doubtful to play this week.  Nic Shimonek looked lost without him against the Cowboys.  Coutee is by far the leading receiver on this game, catching 31 balls for 499 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Texas Tech has been a terrible road team in recent years.  We saw them losing 10-66 at Iowa State last year a week after narrowly falling short against Oklahoma State in a 44-45 loss.  This is the exact same situation against a Big 12 bottom feeder in Kansas.

But the Jayhawks are steadily improving in the third season under David Beaty.  They have been competitive in all four of their games this year.  Their offense has taken a big step forward, averaging 32.2 points and 480 yards per game thus far.  Of course their defense isn't very good, but it's not much worse than that of Texas Tech, which fields one of the worst defenses in the country every year.

This offense put up 34 points and 564 total yards against West Virgina in their last game.  Now the Jayhawks have had two full weeks to prepare for Texas Tech after getting a bye last week.  That's a big advantage and one that will be useful for a team like Kansas.  

This is a Kansas team that was competitive at home last year, only losing 23-24 to TCU as 28-point dogs, losing 24-31 to Iowa State as 11-point dogs, and actually upsetting Texas 24-21 as 23-point dogs.  They have what it takes to hang with Texas Tech, especially given the situation.

Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -4

Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  Now just look how far Georgia Southern has fallen since his departure.

Fritz took the Tulane job knowing it would be a rebuilding process.  Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread offense to Tulane in '16 and did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does, and he welcomed back a whopping 16 starters this year, while recruiting the perfect dual-threat QB in Jonathan Banks.

The Green Wave have opened 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in 2017 and are clearly undervalued.  They beat Grambline 43-14, gave Navy all they wanted as 8-point road dogs in a 21-23 loss, and beat Army 21-17 at home as 3-point favorites.  And they should have covered against Oklahoma and actually had a 14-7 lead over the Sooners in the second quarter before falling apart after half.

Tulane had a bye last week.  It couldn't have come at a better time following that brutal three-game stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army.  So they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday against a tired, undermanned Tulsa team that will be playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.

This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for Tulsa after all they lost in the offseason.  They lost all of their top skill players on offense, and have opened 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS through five games.  Their last two games have been particularly concerning.

They lost 13-16 at home to New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites.  New Mexico was starting its third-string quarterback due to injury, and the Lobos should have won by more as they outgained Tulsa by 160 yards.  Then they had to play Navy last week, getting outgained by 167 yards in a 21-31 home loss.

Tulsa has been hit in the mouth by some elite rushing attacks this season, and they haven't offered any resistance.  The Golden Hurricane are giving up a ridiculous 320 rushing yards per game and 6.7 per carry this season.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them against a Tulane team that will shove it down their throat, too.

The Green Wave are averaging 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  And it's clearly that the Green Wave have one of the better defenses in the AAC.  They are giving up 27.5 points, 388 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that average 31.3 points, 428 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So they have been well better than average defensively.  That can't be said for Tulsa, which is giving up 40.4 points, 574 yards per game and 8.2 per play.

Tulane is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Tulsa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Green Wave have only committed two turnovers in four games.  Fritz is 17-6 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fritz is 12-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game as a head coach.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

20* Memphis/UConn AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UConn +14

The Memphis Tigers have been extremely overrated this season.  They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They are getting way too much respect for their 48-45 home win over UCLA in Week 3.  That was a 9:00 AM local time start for UCLA and they simply weren't ready to play.  And the fact of the matter is that UCLA team just isn't very good, especially defensively.

The other three games have been very concerning for Memphis.  They only beat Louisiana Monroe 37-29 as 28-point home favorites and FCS foe Southern Illinois 44-31 as 30-point home favorites.  Then I had UCF as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR last week against Memphis, and the Golden Knights rolled to a 40-13 home victory over the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites.  As you can see, the Tigers haven't even come close to covering the spread in any of those three games.

Now Memphis is being asked to go on the road for just the second time this season and lay two touchdowns to Connecticut.  Of course, the Huskies are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS on the season, so oddsmakers have to set the number high to try and even out the action.  But I've seen some signs from the Huskies here lately that make be believe they can hang with Memphis.

The 18-38 loss at Virginia doesn't look so bad now after Virginia went into Boise State and crushed them 42-23 as 13.5-point underdogs.  UConn then lost to ECU 38-41 in a game that was dead even in total yards.  The Huskies then played an upstart SMU team that is covering spreads left and right and lost 28-49 on the road as 16.5-point dogs.  But that was a 28-28 game in the 4th quarter before the Mustangs scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute span to pull away.  It was a misleading final score.  And that SMU team is better than Memphis.

I've been most impressed with Randy Edsall's ability to bring this UConn offense to life.  The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points, 467 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They are right there with Memphis statistically.  The Tigers are scoring 35.5 points, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  UConn QB Bryant Sherrifs has been a revelation, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11 yards per attempt.

Neither team offers much to like defensively.  The Tigers are giving up 36.2 points, 513 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Huskies are yielding 37.0 points, 542 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but not much.  Given the closeness of the stats and the home-field advantage for the Huskies, there's no way they should be catching two touchdowns here.

Mike Norvell is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of Memphis.  UConn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Memphis is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.  

Plays against road favorites (MEMPHIS) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Louisville/NC State ACC No-Brainer on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolfpack are a team I had pegged as a big sleeper to win the Atlantic Division coming into the year.  They returned 17 starters, a stud QB in Ryan Finley, and one of the best defensive lines in the country.  From what I've seen so far, they will be right there until the end.

NC State should be 5-0.  They lost the opener 28-35 to South Carolina despite outgaining the Gamecocks by 258 yards.  That loss has kept them under the radar.  They have reeled off four straight wins since, beating Marshall, Furman and Syracuse at home, and then pulling the impressive 27-21 upset as 10.5-point road dogs at Florida State that really shows what they're capable of.

Louisville gets a lot of love from the betting public because of Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson.  But this team really isn't that good despite their 4-1 record.  They have gone 1-4 ATS with their only cover coming by a half-point 47-35 at UNC as 11.5-point favorites.  Well, UNC is 1-4 this season.  They lost 21-47 at home to Clemson in a game that shows what their real potential is.

NC State is going to want revenge from an ugly 54-13 loss at Louisville last season.  That will show up from the Wolfpack defense that features eight senior starters.  They have given up just 20.5 points per game since allowing 35 points to South Carolina despite holding the Gamecocks to 246 total yards, so that point total was a fluke.  Their Run D will be key here stopping Lamar Jackson.  The Wolfpack are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.

And Finley and company should find plenty of success against a leaky Louisville defense that has allowed 28 or more points in the three games against Power 5 opponents outside Kent State and Murray State.  Finley is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,403 yards with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Wolfpack have only committed two turnovers all season, while the Cardinals have given the ball away 10 times and can be very sloppy with it at times.

Dave Doeren is 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins as the coach of NC State.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Take NC State Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos were in a tough spot last week.  They were traveling on the road for the first time after coming off a huge 42-17 win over the Cowboys, and with an even bigger game against the Raiders on deck.  It's forgivable that they lost out East to the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.

According to this 2.5-point spread, the betting public is down on the Broncos all of a sudden.  And they're quick to forgive the Raiders for their 10-27 loss at Washington.  But that was easily the worst performance of the week from any team.  The Raiders managed just 118 total yards and committed three turnovers against a very shaky Washington defense.  They were outgained by a whopping 344 yards in the loss!

Denver lost 16-26 at Buffalo, but that was a misleading final.  The Broncos actually outgained the Bills by 94 yards.  And on the season, the Broncos are outgaining teams by 93 yards per game.  Their offense has produced 27.3 points and 356 yards per game, while their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 21.3 points, 263 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  The Raiders give up 6.2 yards per play for comparison.

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24-6 as 1-point home favorites last year.  They held the Raiders to just 221 total yards.  They do have the best pass defense in the NFL, which is why they match up so well with Derek Carr and the Raiders.  The Broncos have won four of their last five home meetings with the Raiders overall.

Trevor Siemian is better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 63% of his passes for 709 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 7.1 per attempt.  The Denver rushing attack is working well behind the two-headed monster of C.J. Anderson (235 yards, 4.4/carry) and Jamaal Charles (142 yards, 4.1/carry).  And the Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders form one of the more underrated WR duos in the NFL.

The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7

I have cashed in the 49ers as a premium pick each of the last two weeks.  They covered as 14-point road dogs in a 12-9 loss at Seattle, and snuck in the cover as 3-point dogs in a 39-41 loss to the Rams last week.  I'm on them again this week because I think they are better than oddsmakers and the betting public give them credit for.

I'm also on them because of the tremendous scheduling advantage.  The 49ers played last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 4-0 ATS this season, and I cashed in both the Bengals and Texans in this same spot last week.

Making the spot even better for the 49ers is the fact that the Cardinals are working on a short week after losing 17-28 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals are broken right now without David Johnson, and it's clear that Carson Palmer needs to retire.  There's no way Arizona should be laying 7 points here.

After playing two very great defenses in the Panthers and Seahawks the first two weeks, the 49ers finally got on track offensively against another good defense in the Rams last week.  They racked up 421 yards and 39 points against the Rams.  Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards, while Carlos Hyde rushed for 84 yards and two scores.  Pierre Garcon showed why he was their prized offseason acquisition, catching 7 balls for 142 yards in the loss.

The Cardinals have obviously been terrible offensively, but their defense has surprisingly taken a step back this year.  They are giving up 25.3 points per game on the season.  I think Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, will utilize this extra prep time to take advantages of the holes that have been showing up in this Arizona defense.

San Francisco only lost 20-23 at Arizona last year.  That was a bad 49ers team, much worse than the 2017 version.  And the Cardinals were much better last year than they are this season.  I'm not so sure that there's much difference in these teams talent-wise right now, which is why the 49ers shouldn't be catching a touchdown.

Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Arizona.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5

This is a great spot to back the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams are coming off a Thursday game, getting a mini-bye week.  The Dallas Cowboys played on Monday Night Football, making this short week for them.  It's a huge scheduling spot advantage for the Rams, and I look for them to capitalize Sunday.

After all, teams coming off a Thursday game are 4-0 ATS this season.  I had the two last week in the Bengals and Texans as premium picks, and both cashed with ease.  Not to mention, the Cowboys are 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a Monday Night game.

Plus, the Rams are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 46-9 home win over Indianapolis, and a 41-39 road win at San Francisco.  I can forgive their 20-27 loss to the Redskins considering what the Redskins did to the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards in a 27-10 victory.

Sean McVay is doing big things with the Rams.  He was the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, and he is starting to help Jared Goff get to the next level.  The Rams are averaging 35.7 points, 374 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play on offense.  Goff is completing 70.4 percent of his pases for 817 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while averaging a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley has already found the end zone six times in three games, and Sammy Watkins is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with two scores.

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their game against the lowly Cardinals last week.  Dak Prescott made some big plays, and the Cardinals' special teams kept giving them short fields.  The Cardinals had a TD called back by a penalty that would have put them up 14-0, then proceeded to miss a short field goal.  It completely changed the complexion of the game.

I think the Dallas offensive line is overrated right now.  They're really not playing well up front.  They are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  Dak Prescott has consistently been under duress.  This is a Cowboys offense that is only averaging 311 yards per game, and a big reason has been the offensive line struggles.

Defensively, the Cowboys have some key injuries in the secondary and were absolutely lit up by Trevor Siemian two weeks ago.  They are giving up 67.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Look for Goff to continue making strides this week as he lights up this Dallas secondary.

The spot already couldn't be worse for the Cowboys with the short week and the Rams coming off extended rest.  But adding to that is the fact that the Cowboys play the Packers next week, and they want revenge from their loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.  So this is a look-ahead spot as well.

Jason Garrett is 13-27 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Rams are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Falcons as the best team in the NFC.  And getting them under a field goal here at home against the Detroit Lions is an excellent value.  This line suggest Case Keenum will get the start again, as it would be a field goal or more if Sam Bradford was going to play.  But I just don't believe there's that big of a difference between Keenum and Bradford.

The Vikings have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  They are loaded everywhere, so it makes the job much easier on the quarterback.  And Keenum certainly did his part last week in a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay.  He went 25 of 33 passing for 369 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  The Vikings racked up 494 yards as a team, so clearly they are fine without Bradford.

The Detroit Lions are getting way too much respect from the books due to their 2-1 start.  But they trailed Arizona 17-15 in the 4th quarter in Week 1 before David Johnson got hurt, and the Cardinals have been awful since.  They beat a Giants team that is now 0-3 and had offensive line injury problems at the time they played them.

Sure, the Lions only lost 26-30 to the Falcons last week at home, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Falcons outgained them 428 to 324 and lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-6 by the Lions, yet Detroit still couldn't beat them.  And it's going to be tough for them to recover mentally after having a potential game-winning touchdown called back by a review, requiring a 10-second runoff to end the game.

The Vikings started fast last year and they are starting fast this year.  But they were bad in the second half due to injuries throughout the roster.  And they played the Lions twice in November last year during their bad stretch, losing 16-22 at home and 16-13 on the road.  You can bet the Vikings are going to want to exact some revenge here on their division rivals, and they are healthy basically everywhere but the QB position this time around.

The Vikings have gone 19-4 straight up in their last 23 home meetings with the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is 5-47 in his career against teams with a winning record.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Minnesota is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 home games overall.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2

The New Orleans Saints have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They have been underdogs in all three games at Minnesota, versus New England and at Carolina, so they've done a good job of coming away with a 1-2 record.  Their 34-13 domination of Carolina was particularly impressive because the defense stepped up, limiting the Panthers to just 288 total yards and forcing three turnovers.

Now the Saints get a break here against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Miami Dolphins should be 0-2, but San Diego's kicker missed on the final play of the game, so they escaped with a 19-17 victory.  And the Chargers clearly aren't very good.  Then last week the Dolphins would have been shut out by arguably the worst team in the league in the Jets if Adam Gase hadn't called a timeout with six seconds left.  They scored a TD on the final play, avoiding the shutout in an embarrassing 6-20 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

The Saints had some key injuries and suspensions that they had to deal with through the first three games.  But one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Willie Sneed returns from his 3-game suspension, and now tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are likely to return from injury this week.  Getting healthy is going to make the Saints a very dangerous team moving forward.

The Dolphins are in another tough spot here.  They have done way too much traveling here in a short amount of time.  They stayed out in California for a week ahead of their game against the Chargers, then flew back to Miami to practice before flying all the way up to New York.  Now they have to head back down to Miami, and head overseas to London.  You can bet these players have to be sick of traveling by now, and it certainly has set them behind in the preparation department.

It's clear that Jay Cutler should have stuck with his decision to call games from a booth.  The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 12.5 points, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that are allowing 23.2 points, 335 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  And their defense hasn't been much better, surrendering 6.4 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.3 yards per play.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Miami is 15-34 ATS in its last 49 games off a two-game road trip.  New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 October games.  The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +28

Calling out Alabama clearly wasn't a wise move by one of Vanderbilt's players.  The Crimson Tide mopped the floor with the Commodores 59-0 last week.  But now the betting public is back to looking at Alabama like it can't be beat, and quick to forget that they did not look all that good in their first three games of the season.  That's evident by this massive 28-point spread this week.

Florida State gave away the game by committing three turnovers in a 24-7 loss that was much closer than the final score showed.  Alabama only won 41-10 as 43-point home favorites over Fresno State, and 41-23 as 31-point home favorites over Colorado State.  If those two teams can hang around against Alabama, then Ole Miss certainly can.

That's especially the case considering Ole Miss is coming off a bye and will be the more prepared team.  The Rebels have opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 16-27 at Cal.  Well, Cal is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Golden Bears beat UNC on the road, and were tied with USC in the fourth quarter last week, losing 20-30 despite committing six turnovers in that contest.  They probably should have beaten USC.

No team has played Alabama tougher than Ole Miss over the past few seasons.  Ole Miss won outright 23-17 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2014, 43-37 as 9-point road dogs in 2015, and only lost 43-48 as 10-point home dogs last year.  It's not a fluke how close these games have been, either.

Alabama has struggled against up-tempo, spread teams that run a lot of plays.  Deshaun Watson of Clemson, Nick Marshall of Auburn, and both Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly of Ole Miss have run those types of offenses against them.  And Ole Miss has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Shea Patterson.

Patterson is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,281 yards with 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt this season.  And Ole Miss may have more talent at the receiver position than they have in any of the past years against Alabama.  They already have five players with 11 or more receptions on the season.

Ole Miss is averaging 7.5 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 6.7 yards per play.  They are giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  Their defense isn't as good as it has been in year's past, but it's still an above-average unit and good enough to hang around with Alabama for four quarters.

When a high-scoring affair is expected, Alabama doesn't fare too well.  The Crimson Tide are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63.  Alabama is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer passing yards last game.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, consistently overvalued laying too many points at home.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tuscaloosa.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on OVER 81

This play is about as square as it gets and completely goes against what I believe in most of the time.  Everyone is going to be on the OVER in this game, which would make me normally want to back the under.  But the fact of the matter is that square wins sometimes, and I simply do not believe the oddsmakers have set this total high enough, even at 81 points!

Nothing has really changed about these two programs this year.  They are both up-tempo, passing teams that put up a lot of points.  Oklahoma State is scoring 48.2 points per game, averaging 580 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  Texas Tech is scoring 45.0 yards per game, averaging 587 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  And neither team is too concerned with playing defense, especially Texas Tech.

So since nothing has changed with these teams, it makes their recent head-to-head history very important.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and the Cowboys and Red Raiders have combined for 80 or more points in all five meetings.  They have averaged 91.6 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points more than this total.  They went off for 123 combined points in their last meeting at Texas Tech in 2015.

The OVER is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 conference games.  The OVER is 14-5 in Red Raiders last 19 home games.  The OVER is 12-3 in Red Raiders last 15 vs. a team wtih a winning record.  Kliff Kingsbury is 11-1 OVER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of Texas Tech.  Kingsburgy is 9-0 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as the coach of the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech is 9-1 to the OVER off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -3.5

When this game was originally scheduled for September 9th, I had UCF picked as -2.5 favorites over Memphis early in the week.  That line jumped to 3.5 and 4 in some places by the day the game was supposed to be played.  I was upset because I had a great number early in the week.  Well, the line has come out basically the same for the rescheduled contest here, and I'm back on the Knights in a big way.

The UCF Knights are a team on the rise.  After winning 10, 12 and 9 games from 2012-'14, they bottomed out at 0-12 in 2015.  Scott Frost then stepped into a good situation with 17 starters back last year and got the Knights to a bowl game.  Now I believe UCF is one of the better teams in the AAC in 2017.

They have 13 starters back this year, including nine on an offense that is loaded.  That offense has shined in a 2-0 start with a 61-17 win over Florida International as 17.5-point favorites, and a 38-10 win at Maryland as 4.5-point dogs.  In those two games alone, the Knights covered the spread by a combined 59 points.  The markets just haven't caught up to how good this team really is.

McKenzie Milton got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and should be primed for a big sophomore season as he takes a step forward here.  He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 538 yards with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games, while also rushing for 98 yards and averaging 10.9 per carry.  This offense is hitting on all cylinders.

There's no question that UCF has the better defense in this matchup.  They gave up just 24.6 points and 370 yards per game last year.  They have held FIU and Maryland to just 13.5 points, 266 yards per game and 4.4 per play, holding them to 15.0 points, 115 yards per game and 1.8 per play less than their season averages.

Memphis clearly has a good offense with Riley Ferguson at quarterback.  But they are fortunate to be 3-0 right now, and they have played three poor defenses at home in LA Monroe, UCLA and Southern Illinois.  They only won by 8 against LA Monroe as 28-point favorites, beat UCLA by 3 as 3.5-point dogs in a bad spot for the Bruins with the 9:00 AM local start time, and only beat Southern Illinois by 13 as 30-point favorites.  Now the Tigers have to go on the road for the first time.

Memphis' defense gave up 28.8 points and 455 yards per game last year.  This defense isn't any better in 2017.  They are giving up 35.0 points, 484 yards per game and 5.5 per play already this season.  That's very poor when you consider they've faced two poor offensive teams in LA-Monroe and Southern Illinois, giving up a combined 60 points to those two teams.

UCF has owned Memphis through the years, going 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings since 2005 while winning eight of the nine games by 7 points or more.  Plays on a home team (UCF) - after two straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.

Memphis is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game.    The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -3.5

Two of the most misleading box scores last week were Michigan State/Notre Dame and Penn State/Iowa.  And now since Michigan State was blown out by Notre Dame, while Iowa nearly upset Penn State, the public perception of these two teams is wrong.  The Spartans are better than their score showed, while the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good as their score.

Michigan State lost 18-38 to Notre Dame despite outgaining the Fighting Irish 496 to 355, or by 141 total yards.  The difference in that game was that they lost the turnover battle 3-0.  Meanwhile, Iowa only lost 19-21 to Penn State despite getting outgained 273 to 579, or by 306 total yards.  In fact, Saquon Barkley (305 scrimmage yards) outgained Iowa on his own!

It's clear that Michigan State is vastly improved this season and better than most thought they would be after a disastrous 3-9 campaign last year.  The numbers have shown that, too.  They are averaging 473 yards per game and 6.0 per play on offense, and giving up only 254 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 219 yards per game and 1.7 per play.

Conversely, Iowa is not as good as their 3-1 record.  They are actually getting outgained by 29 yards per game this season.  Their win over Wyoming doesn't look nearly as good now as the Cowboys have struggled.  They nearly lost to North Texas at home, and they were lucky to escape with a 44-41 (OT) win at Iowa State as they erased a 10-point fourth quarter deficit.

The Spartans clearly have the better quarterback here in Brian Lewerke, who is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 751 yards with six touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 206 yards and two scores while averaging 7.9 per carry.  The Spartans now have a QB after struggling at the position last year.

It's much easier to recover from a blowout loss for Michigan State.  They know what they did wrong with turnovers, and they know they're better than they played.  I question Iowa's mental state after losing on the final play of the game to Penn State.  They nearly pulled off the miracle despite getting dominated statistically, and after such a big game on the National TV stage, I can't see them getting back up off the mat in time to match Michigan State's intensity here Saturday.

Dantonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of the Spartans.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +14.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 and posted a 7-6 record last year.  They returned 16 starters from that team and are clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have opened 2-1 this season with their only loss to overtime against Ohio, one of the favorites to win the MAC.

Eastern Michigan went on the road and already beat a Power 5 opponent in Rutgers from the Big Ten.  They won that game 16-13 as 6-point dogs.  And that's a Rutgers team that has played both Washington and Nebraska tough this season, so it was a really good win.  Now the Eagles are catching over two touchdowns against another mediocre Power 5 team in Kentucky.

But this play is really all about the spot.  Kentucky opened 3-0 and felt like this was the year they were going to end the 30-game losing streak to Florida.  Instead, the same usual thing happened as they gave up the lead in the final seconds and lost 27-28.  Off such a deflating loss, I don't think the Wildcats will get back up off the mat in time to put Eastern Michigan away by more than two touchdowns this week.

And even though Kentucky is 3-1, all three wins came by 11 points or less against mediocre opponents in Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina.  They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 as 33-point home favorites.  It's clear with that result that a much better team like Eastern Michigan is capable of staying within two touchdowns here.

Plays against a home team (KENTUCKY) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 86-42 (67.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Kentucky is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -7.5

You're never going to get the Florida State Seminoles at a better value than you are now after their 0-2 start to the season.  But both losses are forgivable.  They lost to the best team in the country in Alabama and played them tough.  Then they had a three-week layoff and lost to an upstart NC State team that is better than they get credit for.

This is the perfect storm too because Wake Forest couldn't possibly be more overvalued right now after their 4-0 start.  Look who they've beaten though.  Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah State and Appalachian State.  And they were extremely fortunate to beat App State 20-19 as 5.5-point favorites last week.  They were outgained 344 to 494 in that game, or by 150 total yards.

I think this is a 'circle the wagons' game for Florida State.  Jimbo Fisher will wipe the slate clean and let his team know that a new season starts this week.  It was a tough spot with the three-week layoff and freshman QB James Blackmon making his first start.  But Blackmon played well with 278 passing yards and a touchdown without an interception.  And this FSU defense is still loaded with nine returning starters and a boat load of talent.

Speaking of talent, there is a huge talent discrepancy in this game, a much bigger one than this 7.5-point spread would indicate. And that has shown in recent meetings between these teams.  Florida State is 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 31.4 points per game on average.

Jimbo Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State.  The Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.