25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +34.5

Ball State has the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country.  They went just 2-10 last season with 11 starters back, but now they have 16 starters back in 2018 and should challenge for a bowl game. 

The biggest problem for Ball State last year was that QB Riley Neal started the first three games but then was knocked out with a season-ending injury.  And the Cardinals opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 21-24 at Illinois as 6-point underdogs.  They also lost RB James Gilbert after two games.  Well, Neal and Gilbert are both back healthy to guide the offense this season. 

Both players were on their game in their season-opening 42-6 victory over Central Connecticut State as 19.5-point favorites, covering by 16.5 points.  Neal went 23-of-30 passing for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 37 yards and a score.  Gilbert had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown on 14 carries.  This is certainly a team to look out for this season. 

This is an awful spot for Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish opened the season with arguably their biggest game of the year, and they beat Michigan 24-17.  Now they are primed for a letdown the falling week as they will have been patted on the back all week leading up to this game.  They won’t have 100% focus for Ball State. 

But the Fighting Irish only managed 302 total yards in the win, and their offense is going to hold them back again this year.  They don’t have the kind of offense that is built to cover massive numbers like this 34.5-point spread.  They are a power-running team that needs to control time of possession because Brandon Wimbush isn’t a very good passer.  He only completed 49.5% of his passes last season for 1,870 yards despite making 12 starts.  He managed just 12-of-22 completions against Michigan. 

The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Ball State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Independent opponents.  The Cardinals are 54-26 ATS in their last 80 road games.  The Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. 

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Ball State) - after outgunning their opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  This is way too many points.  Bet Ball State Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +35.5 

Rutgers is a team I’m looking to back early and often.  In fact, when I did my Top 10 season win total bets, Rutgers OVER 3.5 was high up on my list.  I won with them last week as 16-point favorites in a 35-7 win over Texas State.  I’m back on them for many of the same reasons this week. 

Rutgers went 4-8 last year, but was more competitive and now enters Year 3 under head coach Chris Ash, which is when teams usually make their biggest improvements.  The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters this season.  They have seven back on offense and will be better, simply because freshman QB Artur Sitkowski is one of the top recruits in the country.  He ran away with he job this fall and is one of the better young QB’s that not many folks know about. 

The defense improved a ton last year, going from allowing 37.5 points per game in 2016 to 28.3 points per game in 2017.  Now the defense returns eight starts and five of the six tacklers.  Not only will this be Ash’s best defense yet, it will also be one of the better units in the Big Ten. 

Rutgers outgained Texas State 423 to 169, or by 254 total yards.  Sitkowski threw for 205 yards and a touchdown, but he was also picked off three times.  Now that he has a game under his belt, he should be much more comfortable in Week 2.  And the Scarlet Knights ran for 218 yards as a team, led by Boston College transfer Jon Hillman, who had 60 yards and two scores and adds a punch to this rushing attack. 

I think Ohio State comes in overvalued off its 77-31 victory over Oregon State as 40-point favorites.  Well, Oregon State is the worst team in the Power 5 outside of perhaps Kansas.  And they managed to hang 31 points on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State isn’t going to score 77 on Rutgers in this one.  I’m anticipating Rutgers is good enough to hold the Buckeyes below 50, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this massive 35.5-point spread. 

Ohio State is also in a big lookahead spot.  The Buckeyes have a huge game at TCU on deck in their biggest non-conference game this season.  I think they’ll be more than happy to get a win and pull the starters early in this one.  They won’t be looking to run up the score like they were against Oregon State, especially since defensive coordinator Greg Schiano owes Rutgers a big thanks for getting his coaching career kick-started.  Schiano and company will call off the dogs if necessary. 

Ash is 6-0 ATS off a win as the coach of Rutgers.  Urban Meyer teams are 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points as the coach of Ohio State.  Plays against home favorites of 31.5 or more points (Ohio State) who outgained their opponents by 1.5 or more yards per play, with 5 defensive starters returning are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Rutgers) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  Take Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +36.5 

This is a situational play for me.  Alabama just doesn’t cover these kinds of game.  Since 2011, in their last 13 games as a favorite of at least 28 points against non-conference FBS opponents, Alabama just just 1-10-2 ATS.   

I have cashed going against the Crimson Tide several times in this same scenario.  I was also against them the one time they actually did cover two years ago as 43-point favorites in a 48-0 win over Kent State.  But Kent State had a TD overturned on review late, otherwise they wouldn’t have covered that game, either. 

The reason for their struggles in this spot is because they are usually in a letdown situation or a lookahead spot.  In this case, it’s a letdown situation after their big win over Louisville last week, and they could be looking ahead to Ole Miss.  Plus, Nick Saban just isn’t the type of coach to run it up on an opponent.  He shows mercy, unless it’s an SEC rival. 

Arkansas State is one of the better Group of 5 programs in the country.  The Red Wolves have won five Sun Belt titles in the past seven seasons.  They fell just short last year with a 25-32 loss to Troy.  In fact, they went 7-5 last year and four of those five losses came by 7 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played. 

Now the Red Wolves welcome back 12 starters, and they biggest key is that they get their top three playmakers back on offense.  Leading rusher Warren Wand and leading receiver Justin Mcinnis both return.  But the key is getting senior QB Justice Hansen back.  He threw for 3,967 yards and 37 touchdowns last year, while also rushing for 422 yards and seven scores.  He will give Alabama some problems. 

Arkansas State’s 48-21 win over SE Missouri State last week was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Red Wolves outgained them by 400 yards.  They racked up 685 yards on offense, including 423 passing yards and six touchdowns from Hansen.  They also gave up just 285 yards on defense.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 to keep the score closer than it was, and gave up a meaningless TD with only 37 seconds left. 

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (Arkansas State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.  The Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -8.5 

The Vanderbilt Commodores just get no love every season, especially early in the year.  They opened this season as only 3-point favorites over Middle Tennessee.  They proceeded to crush the Blue Raiders 35-7, covering the spread by 25 points. 

The Commodores held what was supposed to be an explosive MTSU offense to just one touchdown and 294 total yards.  Now they’re up against another supposed high-powered Nevada offense, and I expect them to shut them down, too. 

I like what Jay Norvell is doing at Nevada, making them a fun program to watch.  It’s an offense that put up 28 points per game last season and got better as the season went on.  But the defensive deficiencies are still there after allowing 34 points per game and 471 total yards per game last year. 

I think Nevada is getting too much credit for its 72-19 shellacking of Portland State last week.  Well, Portland State went 0-11 last season and is one of the worst teams in the FCS.  Now Nevada will have to go up against SEC talent, and I believe Vanderbilt will have the talent edge at every position on the field. 

Nevada is 0-4 against current SEC members all-time.  The Wolf Pack are just 1-11 SU in true road games over the last two seasons.  Vanderbilt is 15-2 SU when hosting non-conference opponents since 2011, and 10-2 SU when hosting Group of 5 teams since 2008.   

Derek Mason is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of the Commodores.  The Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday. 

20* TCU/SMU ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on TCU -22 

The TCU Horned Frogs have one of the most underrated programs in the country.  Gary Patterson just gets the most out of his players.  What the Horned Frogs lack in talent, they make up for in guts and smarts.  They have won at least 10 games three of the past four seasons. 

The Horned Frogs have a stout defense every year, and that is the case again this season.  They have six starters back on D from a unit that gave up just 19.0 points per game last season, which is mighty impressive in the Big 12.  They should have the best defense in this conference once again. 

I thought Kenny Hill was an erratic quarterback last year and held their offense back.  But talented sophomore Shawn Robinson will be the signal caller this season and should be better than Hill was.  The leading rusher (Darius Anderson) and leading receiver (Jalen Reagor) are both back this season to help out Robinson. 

TCU beat Southern 55-7 in its opener.  Robinson threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 45 yards and two scores on two carries before giving way to backup quarterbacks.  They had 55 points by the end of the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. 

SMU was a team I was high on under Chad Morris.  He did a great job of getting them to a bowl last season and a 7-6 record overall.  Now Morris is gone to Arkansas, a much-deserved promotion for him.  SMU hired Sonny Dykes in the offseason, and Dykes is a coach I have no problem going against because he simply isn’t that good.  He has a career record of 41-46.  LA Tech got better once he left, and Cal got better once he left, too. 

Dykes was on the sidelines for SMU’s 10-51 loss to Louisiana Tech in the bowl game.  And Dykes’ 2018 debut was a rough one as well.  SMU lost 23-46 at North Texas, giving up 461 passing yards to the Mean Green.  Their offense only managed 256 yards against a terrible North Texas defense, and they were outgained by 273 yards in the game.   

That’s a sign of things to come about how much this SMU program has fallen with the loss of Morris and the hiring of Dykes.  The thing is Dykes is known for having an offensive mind, and he has a good QB in Ben Hicks back from lsat season.  So to only managed 256 yards against that North Texas defense is atrocious.  And SMU has never been good defensively as they gave up 36.7 points and 477 yards per game last season.  They could be even worse on that side of the ball this year. 

I think TCU can name its number on offense, and the defense is going to limit SMU to fewer than 20 points.  TCU has really owned SMU, going 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in the five meetings over the past five seasons.  The Horned Frogs have outscored the Mustangs by an average of 31.2 points per game in those five meetings.  I expect them to win by 30-plus in this one as well, and they only need to win by more than 22 to get us a cover.  Bet TCU Friday. 

15* Falcons/Eagles 2018 NFL Season Opener on Atlanta +2 

The Philadelphia Eagles had a remarkable run to the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback.  But now it’s time for the Super Bowl hangover in 2018, and I’m predicting it starts in Week 1 with a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch from Philly’s 15-10 victory in January. 

The Eagles stunk up the preseason (0-4), especially Nick Foles, so their hangover has already started.  They lost all four preseason games by double-digits, and their offense was particularly bad, averaging just 6.8 points per game.   

Now Foles will have to start again in the opener because Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready to go.  And he’ll be without his top receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.  There’s just not a lot to like about this offense to start the season. 

The Eagles were able to get by due to a great defense that gave up just 18.2 points per game last season. But that defense won’t be nearly as good in 2018.  They lost DE Vinny Curry, LB Mychal Kendrick and CB Patrick Robinson in the offseason.  And now they are without DT Timmy Jernigan (back) and LB Nigel Bradham (suspension) in Week 1. 

Many overlooked the Falcons last season, but they still went 10-6 and had another great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl before that 5-point loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round.  Now they have basically their entire team back and will be ready for another Super Bowl Run in 2018. 

The offense is loaded with weapons for Matt Ryan this season.  The usuals are back in Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the 1-2 punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield.  But they used an early draft pick on WR Calvin Ridley, who may turn out to be the best receiver in the draft.  This will help take some pressure away from Jones in the passing game and open it up more for both he and Sanu. 

What got overlooked was the improvement of the Falcons’ defense last season.  They only surrendered 19.1 points per game in their 18 games including playoffs.  They finished in the Top 10 in scoring defense and total defense last year.  The only significant loss was DT Dontari Poe.  They have 10 starters back on D and will have one of the best stop units in the league once again.   

Plus, the Falcons are fully healthy entering 2018 because they basically rested their starters the entire preseason.  They should come out guns-a-blazing in Week 1, while the Eagles are behind the eight ball due to all their injuries and suspensions.  Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Falcons Thursday. 

15* VA Tech/FSU ESPN Monday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 54.5 

Willie Taggart steps into a great situation at Florida State, especially from an offensive perspective.  He is known for coaching up high-octane offenses, and he will love the talent he has to work with here.  Florida State returns 8 starters on offense, including QB Deondre Francois, who was lost to a season-ending injury in the opener against Alabama last year.  That injury derailed their season. 

Francois has the luxury of having each of his top two rushers back, including the electric Came Akers, who rushed for 1,024 yards and seven touchdowns last year as a freshman.  He also had leading receiver Nyqwan Murray back, along with four starters and 90 career starts on the offensive line.  This should be one of the best offenses in the country. 

The problem for the Seminoles this year is going to be defense.  They go from having 9 returning starters on D last year to only 4 returning starters this year.  They lost six of their top seven tacklers.  This unit is certainly going to be a mystery, and I’m banking on this being one of the worse defenses in recent memory at FSU. 

VA Tech coach Justin Fuente earned his stripes at Memphis for what he did on the offensive side of the football.  And he’s doing it again at Virginia Tech.  The Hokies averaged 35.0 points per game in his first season in 2016.  They did slip to 28.2 points per game last year, but they only had 5 returning starters and were breaking in a freshman quarterback.  Now the Hokies have 7 returning starters on offense, including QB Josh Jackson, who is now a sophomore.  He completed 60% of his passes for 2,991 yards and a 20-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and 6 scores as a freshman.  He should take this offense to new heights this year. 

Like Florida State, VA Tech’s biggest questions coming into the season are on the defensive side of the football.  The Hokies return just 5 starters on defense and lose several players to the NFL.  Gone to the NFL are CB Greg Stroman, LB Tremaine Edmunds, and DT Tim Settle.  This is going to be one of the youngest defenses in the country.  Bud Foster will have to work his magic on this group.  They won’t come close to matching last year’s impressive numbers. 

Taggart is 19-7 OVER as a home favorite in all games he has coached.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

20* Miami/LSU ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 47 

The Miami Hurricanes take on the LSU Tigers on Sunday in one of the most anticipated Week 1 games on the board.  They will meet in Arlington, and I’m expecting a defensive battle in this one between two teams whose strengths are their defenses. 

Miami gave up 18.5 points per game in 2016 and 21.0 points per game last season.  Those were Mark Richt’s first two years on the job.  Now they have 7 starters and each of their top 5 tacklers back from last year’s squad, making this likely Richt’s best defense yet. 

Inconsistent quarterback play held Miami back down the stretch last season.  Malik Rosier threw for 3,120 yards and 26 touchdowns, but he also threw 14 interceptions and completed just 54% of his passes.  And now he’ll be without each of his top two receivers from last year in Braxton Berrios and Christopher Herndon. 

Ed Oregon is on the hotseat already at LSU because he still hasn’t developed an offense.  That was especially the case last year when the Tigers went up against some similar defenses to Miami.  They managed beat Florida 17-16, lost to Alabama 10-24, and lost to Notre Dame 17-21.  As you can see, their defense played well enough to win those games, but their offense didn’t get the job done. 

Now LSU has just 5 returning starters on offense.  They lose QB Danny Etling, who had a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio, so he will be tougher to replace than most expect.  The new QB is Joe Burrow.  Derrius Guide and Darrell Williams, who combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last year, have departed. And each of the top three pass catchers from last year are gone.  This offense is going to struggle again. 

But you can count on LSU to have a great defense, which they have for over a decade and that has been the case again with Orgeron running the show and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda calling the shots.  LSU gave up just 15.8 points per game in 2016 and 18.9 points per game in 2017.  While they only have 5 starters back this season, that happens almost every year as they had just 5 starters back on D last season as well.  They do have three of their top four tacklers back, including the best LB in the country in Devin White (133 tackles, 14 for loss last year).  This will be one of the best stop units in the country. 

Orgeron is 34-18 UNDER in all games he has been a head coach.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Hurricanes last 11 games overall.  The UNDER is 20-8-2 in Tigers last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hurricanes last six neutral site games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers last four neutral site games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.  

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2.5 

Miami Ohio remarkably opened 0-6 in 2016 and finished 6-0 to make a bowl game, where they would lose by a single points 16-17 to Mississippi State as 14-point underdogs.  Many expected them to be real good last year because they had 17 returning starters.  But the Redhawks lost QB Gus Ragland for three games, and they lost two starting offensively linemen for the first four games.  Miami suffered four losses by 5 points or less to finish 5-7 in 2017. 

Now, the Redhawks have 16 returning starters and will be one of the most improved teams in the country. Miami Ohio is expected to have 15 senior starters among the 22 on offense and defense.  This is a team I’m going to be looking to back early and often. 

Offensively, the Redhawks have eight returning starters, including QB Gus Ragland, who had a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio in three years with the program.  He has stud receiver James Gardner (47 receptions, 927 yards, 11 TD) back as his disposal.  Each of the top two rushers are back from last year.  They have seven offensive linemen with starting experience and 100 career starts back. 

Defensively, the Redhawks have eight returning starters from a unit that gave up just 24.1 points per game last season.  This will be one of the best units in the MAC this season. 

Marshall made a big jump last year from 3-9 in 2016 to 8-5 in 2017.  And now they have 18 returning starters, so they will be pretty good again.  But they lose their most important player in QB Chase Litton, who threw for 3,115 yards and 25 touchdowns a year ago.  Their defense will be good again, but their offense only managed 26.7 points per game last year even with good QB play, and they likely won’t get the kind of production they had from Litton last year.   

Marshall still hasn’t announced its starting QB yet and likely won’t until gamely.  Alex Thomson is likely the new QB, and the grad transfer from Wagner has made 20 starts in his career, but he has completed just 55% of his passes.  It will either be Thomson or redshirt freshman Isaiah Green, and whoever starts will be making their first start at the FBS level. 

What really stood out to me about this game is that this is a rematch from last year.  Marshall beat Miami Ohio 31-26 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  But that final score doesn’t even tell half the story.  Miami outgained Marshall 429 to 267 for the game, or by 162 total yards.  Marshall got three non-offensive touchdowns in the game with a 99-yard KO return, a 97-yard kickoff return and a 72-yard interception return.  It’s amazing Miami only lost by 5.   

Now the Redhawks will be out for revenge and get the Thundering Herd at home this time around.  They are fully healthy coming into this matchup and should get the job done.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Miami Ohio Saturday. 

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on California -7 

Justin Wilcox did a good job in his first season at Cal head coach last year.  The Golden Bears went just 5-7, but they had three losses by a combined 7 points.  This was an inexperienced team last year, but that won’t be the case in 2018. 

The Golden Bears return 18 starters this season and go from being #110 in experience last year all the way up to #18 this year.  They also faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the country last year, and this year they only face the 49th toughest.  This could be one of the most improved teams in the land. 

The offense returns 10 starters after having just 5 starters back on offense last year.  Junior QB Ross Bowers is back after throwing for 3,039 yards and 18 touchdowns a year ago.  Leading rusher Patrick Laird (1,127 yards, 8 TD, 5.9/carry) and each of the top two receivers in Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa (123 receptions, 1,659 yards, 9 TD between them) are back.  All five starters and seven who have started return along the offensive line. 

Wilcox is known for defense, and he improved this group dramatically last year.  Cal gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game in 2016, but those numbers dropped to 28.4 points and 430 yards per game in 2017 under Wilcox.  Now he has 8 starts back on defense and the numbers should improve once again. 

UNC is an absolute mess right now.  The Tar Heels are coming off a 3-9 season and return a modest 13 starters this year.  Their three wins last year came against Old Dominion, Western Carolina and Pitt.  While they can’t be any worse, they aren’t going to be much better, either. 

That’s because they had 13 players suspended for at least one game and as many as four games for selling team-issued shoes.  Nine of the 13 suspended players will miss the first four games, the most notable being QB Chazz Surratt, the team leader last season in passing yards, yards per attempt and completion percentage. 

Not to mention, projected starting RB Michael Carter (558 yards, 8 TD, 5.8 YPC LY) is out until late September with a wrist injury.  Starting DT Aaron Crawford (29 tackles, 3 sacks LY) is out with a knee injury.  The Tar Heels are going to be short-handed for the opener and for the first month of the season for that matter.  Cal went on the road and beat UNC 35-30 in the opener last season.  Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around and the Golden Bears are vastly improved. 

This is the longest road trip (2,800 miles) in school history for the Tar Heels.  California is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six September games.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +24 

The Appalachian State Mountaineers have cemented themselves as one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country over the past decade.  It all started when they upset Michigan in the Big House back in 2007.  But they have since taken some other Power 5 teams right down to the wire. 

The Mountaineers won 11 games in 2015, 10 games in 2016 and 9 games in 2017.  They have won at least 10 games five times over the past decade.  They only lost 13-20 as 20-point underdogs in Week 1 against Tennessee two years ago.  They lost 10-31 at Georgia in the opener last year, and we all know how good Georgia turned out to be.  They also lost 19-20 as 5-point home dogs to an 8-win Wake Forest team last year. 

I was impressed with the way the Mountaineers finished the season last year.  They won their final four games by 21, 21, 49 and 34 points, including their 34-0 beat down of Toledo in the Dollar General Bowl.  That gives them a ton of momentum heading into 2018. 

Appalachian State returns only 11 starters but 59 lettermen, so while they may be a little young, they have plenty of depth.  The loss of four-year starting QB Taylor Lamb is tough, but sophomore Zac Thomas is ready to be the next great QB here.  Reports are he’s actually a better runner and has a better arm than Lamb did, so the future is bright for him. 

The good news for Thomas is that he’ll be able to lean on an offensive line that returns five players with starting experience, including 1st-Team All-Sun Belt LT Victor Johnson.  And they’ll be blocking for the best RB in the Sun Belt in Jalin Moore, who has delivered back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. 

The bread and butter of the Mountaineers has been defense under head coach Scott Satterfield.  They allowed just 19.1 points per game in 2015, 17.8 in 2016 and 20.2 in 2017.  They return 14 of their top 20 tacklers from a year ago and should be good again.  It’s this defense that will give them a chance to hang with Penn State Saturday. 

I think the Nittany Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the country heading into 2018.  They shocked everyone by winning 11 game each of the last two seasons, but now they lose a ton of talent from those two teams.  The Nittany Lions have just 10 returning starters in 2018. 

While they have seven starters back on offense, including QB Trace McSorley, they lose their top three playmakers in RB Saquon Barkley (1,903 scrimmage yards, 21 total TD LY), WR DaeSean Hamilton (857 yards, 9 TD LY) and TE Mike Gesicki (57 receptions, 563 yards, 9 TD LY).  That trio is simply irreplaceable. 

The losses are just as big on defense as the Nittany Lions return only 3 starters this year.  They lost seven of their top eight tacklers from a year ago, so it will basically be all new faces for them on this side of the ball.  There’s no way they even come close to last year’s 16.5 points per game allowed.  They gave up 25.4 points per game in 2016 and will likely be closer to that number this year.   

Penn State opens the 2018 season with expectations it simply cannot live up to from a point spread perspective.  They should not be 24-point favorites over pesky Appalachian State in the opener.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Roll with Appalachian State Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rutgers -16 

Rutgers is a team I’ll be looking to back early and often.  In fact, when I did my Top 10 season win total bets, the Rutgers Over 3.5 made my list.  It’s a team that went 4-8 last year and now enters year 3 under head coach Chris Ash, which is when teams usually make their biggest improvements. 

The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters this season.  Freshman QB Artur Sitkowski is one of the top recruits in the country, and he ran away with the job in fall camp and has been named the starter.  He is a big reason why I’m so high on this team because he has all the tools to be one of the better quarterbacks in the country that most don’t know much about. 

The offense has seven starters back and can only improve after averaging just 18 points per game a year ago.  They brought in a new coordinator in John McNulty, who has spent the past nine years in the NFL with four teams, and he was the former offensive coordinator at Rutgers from 2004-2008.  There is a lot of talent at receiver, three starters return on the offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks last year, and Jon Hillman is a grad transfer from Boston College at running back who should inject life into the running game. 

The defense improved a ton last year, going from allowing 37.5 points per game in 2016 to 28.3 points per game in 2017.  Now that unit returns eight starters and five of the top six tacklers.  This will be one of the most underrated stop units in the Big Ten this season. 

Texas State was one of the worst teams in the country last season.  The Bobcats went just 2-10 and were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game on the season.  Their two wins came against Houston Baptist and Coastal Carolina, an FCS team and a team that was in their first season at the FBS level. 

The Bobcats do have 14 starters back this year, but they won’t be any good.  They lose their starting QB in Damian Williams and their most explosive playmakers in WR Elijah King (750 yards, 3 TD).  Sophomore Willie Lee Jones is expected to step in at QB, but he completed just 48.6% of his 37 attempts last year in the backup role.   

Texas State is expected to be the worst team in the Sun Belt, which is the worst conference in the country.  The Scarlet Knights from the Big Ten should have no problem waxing them by 17-plus points to get the win and cover in this one.  Take Rutgers Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Line Mistake on Coastal Carolina +29.5 

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will be playing their first season as an official FBS member after dominating in FCS over the past five years.  They won 12, 12, 9 and 10 games from 2013-2016.  Last year they played a schedule that featured 11 FBS teams to get them prepared for this season. 

They went just 3-9 last year, but there were some highlights, and evidence that they were better than their record would suggest.  They went 1-5 in games decided by 8 points or less.  But they won their final two games against Idaho and Georgia Southern outright as underdogs to give them some momentum heading into 2018. 

Now they have 12 returning starters after having just 9 back last year.  And one huge factor is that head coach Joe Moglia, the former FCS Coach of the Year, missed the entire season last year with a lung infection.  He’s back healthy now and will be on the sidelines coaching this team up. 

Perhaps Coastal Carolina’s most impressive effort last season was in a loss.  The Chanticleers went on the road as 23-point underdogs and nearly upset SEC foe Arkansas 38-39.  That effort showed that they could play with the big boys, which is a big reason why I think they can hang with South Carolina, or at least stay within this 29.5-point spread. 

South Carolina overachieved last year by going 9-4.  They were opposite of Coastal Carolina in terms of luck in close games.  The Gamecocks went 6-1 in games decided by 8 points or less.  They didn’t beat anyone by more than 26 points.  They only beat Wofford 31-10 as 27-point home favorites, and they only beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 as 9-point home favorites. 

So now expectations are high for the Gamecocks heading into 2018 when they really shouldn’t be because they simply were lucky in close games last year and were really closer to a 6-7 or 7-6 team rather than a 9-4 one.  They do have 14 starters back and return some key playmakers, but they should not be 29.5-point favorites here in the opener. 

That’s especially the case when you consider South Carolina won’t be able to help but overlook Coastal Carolina.  They have their ‘game of the year’ on deck next week hosting Georgia.  They will want to make sure that everyone is healthy for that game, which means they will likely pull the starters or limit their snaps at the first opportunity they get.  They are just looking to win this game, not win it by margin.  Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* Colorado State/Colorado CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -7.5 

The Colorado Buffaloes won the Pac-12 South in 2016 despite being picked by most outlets to finish last. Head coach Mike MacIntyre always gets the most out of his teams.  They were due for some regression last year, and they did at 5-7, but still came within one win of making a bowl but lost their final three games.  They had just 12 returning starters last year, including only 3 on defense. 

I realize they only have 10 returning starters in 2018, but this is actually a better team than the ’17 version. I love the offense led by Steven Montez, a junior who threw for 2,975 yards and 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions, while also rushing for 338 yards and three scores.  The offense boasts nine junior and senior starters and will be better than what you would expect for having just four returning starters. 

Improvement will come from a defense that returns six starters, including each of the top three tacklers from a year ago.  This unit slipped big-time last year going from nine returning starters in ’16 to just three in ’17.  But they still only allowing 28.2 points per game, a respectable number considering all they had to replace.  This should now be one of the better stop units in the Pac-12 again. 

Colorado State is one of the single-least experienced team in FBS, ranking #130 in terms of returning experience.  They have just nine starters and 39 lettermen returning.  They lost QB Nick Stevens (3,799 yards, 29 TD), leading rusher Dalyn Dawkins (1,399 yards, 8 TD) and leading receiver Michael Gallup (100 receptions, 1,413 yards, 7 TD) on offense.  Defensively, they have just five starters back. 

I think you saw everything you needed to know about how bad Colorado State is going to be this season in their opener against Hawaii on Saturday.  They were favored by 17 over a Hawaii team that brought back just 9 starters this season.  They trailed 37-7 as their offense couldn’t get anything going against an awful Hawaii defense.  And by the time they did get their offense going, it was too late as they lost 34-43.  Their defense gave up 617 total yards to the Warriors. 

Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with Colorado State in Denver.  Those eight wins have come by an average of 16 points per game.  The Rams were better the last two seasons than they will be this season, yet the Buffaloes crushed them 44-7 in 2016 and 17-3 in 2017.   

Colorado State is at a disadvantage here having to play on a short week after facing Hawaii on Saturday,  Meanwhile, the Buffaloes had all offseason to prepare for this one, and now have some actual game film to do so all week.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Bet Colorado Friday. 

15* CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/Michigan State UNDER 51.5 

I expect a defensive battle tonight between Utah State and Michigan State in the season opener for both teams.  Both squads have experienced defenses returning, which will be the strength of both teams in 2018. 

Michigan State went 10-3 last year despite averaging just 24.5 points per game.  That’s because they won a lot of close games and their defense was tremendous, giving up just 20.0 points and 298 yards per game despite having just four starters back on D last year.  Now the Spartans have 9 starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the country. 

Utah State gave up 26.9 points per game last season with just 5 starters back on defense.  Now they have 9 starters and 19 of their top 21 tacklers back on defense and will have one of the best stop units in the Mountain West.  This should be one of Matt Wells’ best defenses yet as he enters his 6th season wit the Aggies.  In his first three years, they surrendered just 339.6 yards per game.  It’s the most returning experience he’s had on any defense yet. 

Utah State’s offense isn’t anything special, either.  The Aggies played two Power 5 teams last year and managed just 10 points against Wisconsin and 10 points against Wake Forest.  Both teams have a lot of experience returning on offense as well, but that’s not necessarily a good thing considering both offenses were sub-par a year ago. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game that features both teams having 8 or more defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 42-12 (77.8%) over the last five seasons.  Michigan State is 9-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Wake Forest/Tulane Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest -6.5 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons just get no respect.  They went 8-5 last season and 8-3-2 ATS in their 13 games.  Dave Clawson has now gotten the Demon Deacons to back-to-back bowl games and enters his 5th season in Winston-Salem. 

Clawson has 14 returning starters this season.  He has eight starters back from an offense that set a school record with 454 points last year and averaged 35.3 points and 466 yards per game.  They were competitive in every game last season due to the offense and did not get beat by more than 14 points once all season. 

The offense is led by an offensive line that returns all five starters and a whopping 132 career starts.  This will be one of the best units in the ACC.  Each of the top two receivers are back from last year in Great Dortch (53 receptions, 722 yards, 9 TD) and Scotty Washington (45, 711, 3 TD), as is leading rusher Matt Colburn (904 yards, 7 TD).  That will help ease the transition of the new quarterback.

Wake Forest does have only six starters back on defense, but should be improved from a unit that gave up 28.3 points per game last season with just five starters back.  Their weakness last year was against the pass as they gave up 272 yards per game through the air.  But that won’t be a problem against Tulane, which runs an option attack.  And the Demon Deacons have a huge advantage getting to prepare all offseason for the option. 

I like what Willie Fritz is doing at Tulane.  He enters his 3rd season here from a team that went 5-7 last year and fell just a few yards shy of beating SMU in the season finale and making a bowl game.  Fritz has 14 starters back and the Green Wave should be competitive again against most AAC teams, but this is a different story here against one of the most underrated teams in the ACC. 

With nine starters back on offense, the Green Wave should be able to match or exceed last year’s 27.5 PPG in which they had eight starters back.  But they do lose leading rusher Montreal Hilliard (1,091 yards, 12 TD).  QB Jonathan Banks is back to run the offense and should be able to have a decent senior season, though he competed just 56.6% of his passes last year and accuracy will always be an issue for him. 

The reason I really love Wake Forest is because I believe their high-powered offense will score at will against this suspect Tulane defense.  The Green Wave return just 5 starters on defense from a unit that gave up 29.2 points and 436 yards per game last season.  This defense is clearly worse off than it was a year ago as they lose their top three playmakers in Rae Juan Marbley, Jarrod Franklin and Parry Nickerson (6 INT).  The lose 3.5 defensive line starters and 7 of their top 12 tacklers. 

The Demon Deacons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Wake Forest is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.  Tulane is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 vs. ACC opponents.  They are losing by 27.7 points per game in this situation.  The last time Tulane hosted a Power 5 team to open the season they lost to ACC opponent Duke 37-7 back in 2015.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday. 

15* NMSU/Minnesota BTN No-Brainer on Minnesota -20 

Unfortunately, I took New Mexico State +4 against Wyoming in their opener.  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  But I’m willing to realize my mistakes and correct them.  After watching just how ugly New Mexico State looked against a mediocre Wyoming squad, I have no doubt they are going to have many of the same issues against Minnesota Thursday night. 

New Mexico State had negative yards on offense in the first half against Wyoming last week and themselves trailing 15-0.  It didn’t get much better in the second half as they trailed 29-0 before getting a garbage TD in the final seconds to lose 29-7.  They were outgained 450 to 135 for the game, or by 315 total yards. 

Wyoming ran wild on the NMSU defense for 313 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry.  Now the Aggies must play on a short week having just four days to prepare for Minnesota, another team that loves to run the football as they averaged 182 rushing yards per game last season.  The Gophers should be able to move the ball on the ground at will on a tired NMSU defense. 

PJ Fleck enters his second season at Minnesota.  He has more of his players in place to take on bigger roles this season.  He has 14 returning starters as well and this should be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten after a 5-7 campaign in his first season. 

The Gophers can only be better offensively as they return seven starters, their leading rusher, top two receivers and four starters along the offensive line.  The problem last year was QB play as it was atrocious.  That means it can only get better, and Fleck true freshman recruit Zack Annexstad will get the first crack at the job.  He beat out fellow freshman Tanner Morgan, who many expected to win the job. 

Fleck turned an inexperienced defense that returned just five starters last year into one of the Big Ten’s best units.  The Gophers only allowed 22.8 points and 347 yards per game.  Now they return seven starters, led by leading tackler Thomas Barber (115 tackles, 10.5 for loss) at linebacker.  This is an experienced unit that is expected to have nine junior or senior starters.  One of the sophomores is Antoine Winfield, who got a medical redshirt and will be one of the best safeties in the Big Ten. 

Minnesota should be able to shut down a New Mexico State offense that lost its top three playmakers from a year ago.  They lost the school’s second all-time leading passer in Tyler Rogers from a passing offense that ranked 3rd in the country last season.  They also lost 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott (1,079 yards, 9 TD) and star RB Larry Rose, who accounted for 1,471 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage last year.  It was clear NMSU misses this trio when they managed just 7 points and 135 total yards against Wyoming last week. 

New Mexico State is 10-30-1 ATS in its last 41 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Aggies are 3-15 in their last 18 road openers, and 0-12 in their last 12 against Power 5 schools.  The Gophers have won 19 of their last 23 home openers, and five of their last six with their only loss coming to #2 TCU 17-23 as 16-point underdogs in 2015.  

NMSU having to play on a short week off a very physical game and against another physical opponent here is such a huge schedule disadvantage for them.  That’s why I’m willing to lay this many points with the Gophers.  Doug Martin is 0-11 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached.  Take Minnesota Thursday.

20* Wyoming/New Mexico State ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +4 

New Mexico State went to a bowl game for the first time since 1960 last year.  Not only did the Aggies get to a bowl, they actually upset Utah State 26-20 in overtime.  Head coach Doug Martin has done a tremendous job of turning this program around as he enters his 6th season here. 

Now the Aggies return 15 starters and 49 lettermen in 2018 while losing only 13 lettermen.  The strength of this team will be a defense that gave up their fewest points per game since 2003 last year.  They have nine starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers back on D.  They were an attacking D last year that set a school record with 43 sacks.  Frank Spaziani, the former Boston College head coach, is a big reason for the turnaround.  He enters his second season running the defense. 

There are questions for the Aggies offensively as they return 6 starts and lose their top three playmakers.  However, they have a junior back in Jason Huntley that is ready to take over for Larry Rose.  Huntley averaged 6.0 YPC last season compared to 5.1 for Rose.  Four of their top five receivers are back, so that helps soften the loss of 1,000-yard receiver Jaleel Scott. 

The biggest loss is QB Tyler Rogers, who was third in the country at 334.7 passing yards per game last season.  However, the Aggies signed JUCO transfer Matt Romero in the offseason.  He threw for 5,873 yards and 49 touchdowns over two seasons at Palomar College in California.  It’s a great fit for Romero, who ran the exact same offense at Palomar.  And six offensive linemen with starting experience return this season, helping ease Romero’s transition. 

Wyoming does have a lot of experience back as well with 17 returning starters, but many of those players are hurt.  Two projected starters along the offensive line will be out with injuries.  WR CJ Johnson, who led the team with 7 TD receptions last year, is out.  LB Cassh Mauluia (74 tackles last year) is also out.  So technically, they have just 13 healthy starters for Game 1 from last year. 

And the biggest loss is QB Josh Allen, who was taken as a first-round draft pick of the Buffalo Bills.  They even traded up to get him.  I know his numbers weren’t great last year, but he’s the biggest reason the Cowboys were able to make bowl games each of the past two seasons.  You simply don’t replace a talent like Allen at a school as small as Wyoming.  The Cowboys will now be starting a freshman QB this year. 

New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. MWC opponents.  The Aggies are 18-9 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  Bets on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (New Mexico State) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference game are 67-27 (71.3%) ATS since 1992.  Wyoming is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday. 

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 

Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level.  Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses.  I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. 

The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. 

The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries.  They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive.  And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. 

The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch.  The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game.  They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. 

Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season.  The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well.  Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England Money Line -180 

The New England Patriots have a huge edge in experience in this game.  That will benefit them greatly.  The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls since 2002, winning five of them thus far.  I think they will grab their 6th victory over the inexperienced Eagles here. 

Nick Foles had a big game against the Vikings, but it’s worth noting that he got to play at home in both playoff games.  He was comfortable, but now he will be outside his comfort zone here on a neutral in the biggest game of his life. 

The Vikings game was the aberration.  The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games.  They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game.  Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. 

Now the Eagles will be up against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out.  The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch.  It’s very difficult for a backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and I simply trust Brady exponentially more than Foles in this huge spot. 

I don’t bet a lot of money lines, but there are certain spots to do so.  The Super Bowl is one of them.  You get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl than you would in a regular season game. That’s because there is so much money line action on the underdog that the oddsmakers are forced to lower the price of the favorite.  So we are getting the Patriots at -180 here when they would normally be -200 or more if this was a regular season game in the -4.5 favorite range. 

Plays on favorites vs. the money line (New England) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers are 26-4 (86.7%, +20.4 units) since 1983. 

New England is 12-1 (+10.7 units) against the money line vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Belichick is 28-0 against the money line (+35.2 units) after covering the spread in 8 or more of the last 10 games as the coach of New England.  Bet the Patriots on the Money Line in the Super Bowl. 

20* Vikings/Eagles NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3 

Everyone thinks the Minnesota Vikings got lucky to be here in the NFC Championship Game.  They saw that the Vikings needed basically a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to beat the Saints.  While that is true, let’s not forget how that game played out. 

Minnesota stormed out to a 17-0 halftime lead and still led 17-0 deep into the 3rd quarter.  I think they simply relaxed, and it’s tough to hold an offense as good as the Saints down for four quarters.  Drew Brees and the Saints’ top-ranked offense finally got on track, and coupled with a few mistakes by the Vikings with an interception in their own territory and a blocked punt, and the Saints got right back into the game. 

I like to focus not the fact that the Vikings held the Saints scoreless for nearly three quarters.  That’s no small feat.  The Vikings rank 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), 1st in yards per play (4.6/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game).  They also are 1st in 3rd down defense (25%).  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to fewer than 40% 3rd down conversions during the regular season. 

In the NFL, defense travels, and I’ll gladly back the best defense in the NFL.  But the Minnesota offense doesn’t get the credit they deserve.  They scored 24 points per game and averaged 357 yards per game during the regular season.  Case Keenum threw 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes and averaging 7.4 per attempt.  And the Vikings have run the ball well behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They rushed for 100-plus yards in eight consecutive games to close the regular season, and in 13 of their 16 games overall. 

Many felt that the Vikings were cursed, and they were certainly feeling that way with 10 seconds to play before that Hail Mary.  But after getting that ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, I really like the mindset of this team now.  The Vikings feel like they are playing on house money and will be playing freely.  There won’t be a single situation they face Sunday that will scare them.  They will have the belief they can win no matter what the circumstances.  They really believe it’s their year now. 

The Eagles have a strong defense as well this season, but the difference in this game is going to be the fact that their woeful offense just won’t be able to do anything against this Minnesota defense.  The Eagles have managed just 13, 0 and 15 points in their last three games overall.  Yes, they scored 19 against Oakland, but I don’t count 6 of those points because they got a fumble-six on the final play of the game. 

The Eagles have managed just 81.3 rushing yards per game and 175 passing yards per game in their last three contests, an average of just 251.3 yards per game.  And that came against some suspect defenses in Oakland, Dallas and Atlanta all at home.  Now the Eagles will be up against the best defense they have faced all season, and I don’t expect that to turn out well at all for struggling quarterback Nick Foles. 

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jags/Patriots AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on New England -8 

The New England Patriots are the most popular team in the NFL.  And despite that, they have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They won the Super Bowl last year, the betting public keeps backing them, and they keep covering.  I can’t even explain how difficult that is. 

Now the Patriots are a win away from another Super Bowl appearance.  They made easy work of the Titans 35-14 last week and even gave up a garbage touchdown in the final seconds on fourth down to turn that from a 28-point game into a 21-point game.  And it’s worth noting the Titans went 2-0 against the Jaguars this season, outscoring them by 29 points in those two matchups. 

The Patriots couldn’t possibly be more rested right now.  They haven’t had to leave home since December 17th, so they have been in New England for over a month now.  They had a bye coming into the playoffs, while the Jaguars have had to win two games in the playoffs and played their starters in Week 17.  So the Jaguars are certainly fatigued in comparison to the Patriots. 

I trust Bill Belichick to make the Jaguars play left-handed.  They want to run the football and rely on their defense, making things easier on Blake Bortles.  Look for the Patriots to stop the run and make Bortles try and beat them.  Bortles has a 103 passer rating when playing with a lead, and a 66 rating when playing from behind this season.  I fully expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind. 

Last week’s misleading 45-42 win over the Steelers last week has the Jaguars overvalued.  The Steelers didn’t take them seriously and were looking ahead.  They dug themselves and early 21-point deficit thanks to a fumble-six and another interception that set up the Jaguars in the red zone for another score.  But we saw how vulnerable this Jaguars defense was the rest of the way as the Steelers racked up 545 total yards and 462 passing yards against them. 

You know Tom Brady and company are going to be able to move the ball and score points.  I think Rob Gronkowski is going to be a huge matchup problem for the Jaguars.  We saw Steelers tight end Vance McDonald catch 10 balls for 112 yards against the Jaguars last week.  You can only imagine the kind of game Gronkowski is going to have because he’ll be matched up with linebackers.  The Jaguars cannot afford to put Jalen Ramsey on him the whole game, and he probably won’t guard him at all. 

The Jaguars have a strong running game with Leonard Fournette, but Fournette was knocked out of the Steelers game with an ankle injury.  When he finally came back in the lineup in the second half, he wasn’t nearly as effective.  I think the rookie is starting to wear down now, and he certainly won’t be 100% for this game.  On the other side, Rex Burkhead is expected to return to the lineup for the Patriots this week, giving them another option in an already loaded backfield. 

If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you’re betting on Blake Bortles.  That’s not going to be a strategy I want any part of here.  Bortles is just 41-of-83 (49.4%) passing for 459 yards (153 yards/game) with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.  Belichick will make him try and beat them, and I don’t think he’s even close to being capable.  When the Jaguars get behind, there will be no coming back. 

New England is 8-0 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  New England is 12-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games over the past two seasons.  The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.  These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing New England.  Take the Patriots Sunday. 

20* Saints/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

I strongly believe the Minnesota Vikings will be the first team ever to play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl this season.  I feel they are far and away the best team in the NFC, but they don’t get treated like it.  They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here. 

Getting the bye is a huge advantage for the Vikings.  They will be rested and ready to go.  And you could argue that they’ve had three byes this season considering they had a bye on November 5th, and their Week 17 game against the Bears didn’t matter.  They will be primed for a big effort. 

Conversely, the Saints have been in playoff mode for at least three straight weeks dating back to their win over the Falcons.  The Saints haven’t had a bye since October 8th which was way back in Week 5.  They were one of the first teams to receive a bye this season.  That will make them even more tired coming into this game. 

And the Saints have been hit hard by injuries defensively, which is a big reason why I’m quick to fade them here Sunday.  They’ve lost basically five starters to season-ending injuries on defense.  They are without LB Alex Anzalone, DE Alex Okafor, LB A.J. Klein, LB Hau’oli Kikaha, S Kenny Vaccaro, DE Mitchell Loewen and CB Delvin Breaux. 

All these injuries and the lack of rest has this New Orleans defense playing awful here down the stretch.  They allowed 31 points and 455 total yards in a loss to the Bucs in Week 17 in which they needed a win to clinch the division.  Then they allowed 26 points and 413 total yards to the Panthers in their 31-26 home win where they were life-and-death in the closing seconds just to win that game. 

One stat that really stands out in these two games is that New Orleans has allowed 60% conversions on 3rd down to the Bucs and Panthers.  They allowed the Bucs to convert 13-of-18 on 3rd down, and the Panthers to convert 8-of-16 on 3rd down. 

Now let’s look at this Minnesota defense, which I believe to be the best stop unit in the NFL.  The Vikings have the No. 1 3rd down defense in the NFL, giving up just 25% conversions on the year.  They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to less than 40% 3rd down conversions in every game.  Minnesota ranks 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), tied for 1st in yards per play defense (4.6 yards/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). 

This Minnesota defense has been even better at home.  They allow just 12.5 points per game and 248 yards per game at home this year.  They have only allowed one touchdown in their last five home games combined.  If that’s not dominance, I don’t know what is.  And I think Minnesota’s home-field advantage is worth upwards of 4 points in the playoffs, which will be the most hostile atmosphere the Saints have played in all season. 

After all, these teams already played once in Minnesota back in Week 1.  The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in that contest.  They racked up 470 yards of total offense while limiting the Saints to 344 yards, outgaining them by 126 yards in that contest.  These teams are different since then, but I could see a very similar end result with a 10-plus point victory for the Vikings. 

While everyone knows the Vikings’ defense is good, they don’t want to give Case Keenum and the offense their due.  But this offense has been just fine in averaging 24 points and 357 yards per game on the season.  Keenum has thrown 22 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions this season while completing 67.6% of his passes while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.  And the Vikings have been able to run the ball behind a vastly improved offensive line.  They have rushed for at least 100 yards in eight consecutive games and in 13 of their 16 games this season. 

The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games, including 12-4 ATS inside their new stadium, which opened last year.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Jaguars/Steelers AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -7 

A big reason I faded the Jaguars last week and backed the Bills was the fact that the Jaguars played the 32nd-toughest schedule this season.  That’s right, they played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  It was a big reason for their huge turnaround season. 

I also think Doug Marrone made a big mistake playing his starters in Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Titans in which they lost 10-15.  They were already locked in to the No. 3 seed, so there was no need to play the starters.  I think Tom Coughlin was in his ear and his old-school ways overtook him.  It’s really going to cost them this week. 

The Jaguars were fortunate it didn’t cost them last week.  The Bills were the better team but lost 10-3.  They outgained the Jaguars by 39 yards.  They held this woeful Jacksonville offense to just 230 total yards.  Blake Bortles was awful, completing just 12-of-23 passes for 87 yards in the win.  He did shockingly rush for 88 yards, while Leonard Fournette was held to 57 yards on 21 carries.  His legs are the reason they won, but now the Steelers will be prepared for that element of his game after seeing it against Buffalo. 

The Steelers have had horrible luck in the playoffs injury-wise in previous years.  They have been missing one of the Killer B's basically every year they have made the playoffs in recent years, and it’s usually Le’Veon Bell.  But after resting the Killer B’s in Week 17, all three of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy going into the playoffs.  Brown is expected to return from his calf injury, and the Steelers are remarkably healthy everywhere outside of LB Ryan Shazier now. 

And boy are the Steelers going to be revenge-minded.  They were rusty earlier in the year due to Bell’s suspension and lacked chemistry.  I think that helps their 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th, which is one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see.  The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 373-313 in that game yet lost by 21.  That only tells half the story. 

Big Ben hard arguably the worst game of his career, throwing five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  A couple of those were tipped balls and weren’t his fault, but he was still jokingly contemplating retirement afterwards.  And Fourtnette had a 90-yard TD run with only 1:47 remaining as they were just trying to run out the clock.  So without that run, the Jaguars would have only had 223 total yards.  I think that’s a number that we can expect them to have in this rematch. 

Bortles only went 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards without an touchdown and with one interception in that game.  And there is the problem with the Jaguars.  They don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this game.  I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to be much more productive on offense than they were in the first meeting. 

And the reason they will be more productive is because they won’t put so much on Big Ben’s shoulder.  Look for 30-plus carries from Le’Veon Bell because the Steelers realize they are better when he gets more carries as it has shown throughout their history.  That will open things up for Big Ben in play-action, and they won’t be playing into the Jaguars’ defensive strength, which is their pass defense. 

Big Ben through 55 times in that first meeting.  I only expect him to throw 20-30 times in the rematch.  That will negate the Jacksonville pass rush, which has been their strength all season.  The weakness of the Jaguars is their run defense, which ranked 21st in the league in the regular season, giving up 116.2 rushing yards per game.  The Jaguars have allowed 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last seven games overall. 

With Bortles being one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Jaguars are going to try to run the football.  Well, the Steelers have been stout against the run all season.  They have allowed 91 or fewer rushing yards in 10 of their 16 games this season.  They rank 10th against the run in giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game on the year.  And their defense is significantly improved overall, giving up just 19.2 points per game on the season. 

Pittsburgh is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a home favorite.  It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% over the last two seasons.  They are winning these games by 16.5 points per game on average.  Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

I was on the Falcons last week and I’m going to back them again this week.  Except this time, they are up against a much weaker opponent than they were last week against the Rams.  The Eagles are only a shell of the team they were with Carson Wentz before. 

A big reason why I loved the Falcons last week is because their perception is way down compared to last year coming into the playoffs.  But they still managed to win 10 games despite playing the 4th-most difficult schedule in the NFL.  And their numbers from a yards per play basis were almost identical to where they were last year, but they struggled in the red zone more than they did last season. 

The Falcons still had to settle for four field goals against the Rams last week, but their offense was productive in a 26-13 victory.  But what really has me excited about this team is how well the defense has been playing down the stretch. 

Indeed, the Falcons have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games to close out the season. This despite facing the Saints twice, the Vikings, the Panthers and the Rams, five playoff teams in their final seven games.  They are giving up just 16.3 points per game and 319.2 yards per game in their last six games.  This defense is playing much better than it gets credit for. 

Now the Falcons should have another great defensive showing against an Eagles team that has been terrible on offense in its last two games.  The Eagles were leading Oakland 13-10 before a fluke lateral fumble return for a touchdown on the final play to win 19-10 in Week 16.  Then they lost 0-6 to Dallas despite playing their starters for much of the game. 

The culprit has been the horrible play of backup quarterback Nick Foles.  He is completing just 56.4% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season.  He is only averaging 5.0 yards per attempt in his last three games, which came agains the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders.  Those aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts. 

I think a big reason Foles has struggled is because he’s a warm weather quarterback.  He played for Arizona in college and mostly in perfect weather out on the West Coast.  Now he’s in Philadelphia and has played three straight cold weather games at New York, and at home against Oakland and Dallas.  And the temperature Saturday is going to be a high of 30 and a low of 18 with 10 mile per hour winds.  I don’t trust him one bit, and I don’t think the Philadelphia players trust him either. 

As I mentioned before, the Falcons played the 4th-most difficult schedule this season.  The Eagles played the 21st-toughest to compare.  They simply took advantage of an easy schedule, won basically all of their close games, and got great play from Carson Wentz to lead the way.  But Wentz is no longer here to save the day, otherwise this would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  The difference from Wentz to Foles is 7-plus points, if not more. 

I still think Atlanta is on a mission to make up for last year’s Super Bowl debacle.  That has shown here down the stretch as they have won four of their last five with their only loss coming on the road to the Saints.  The Eagles have shown signs of being a fraud with Foles against the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders down the stretch, and now they will be up against their best opponent yet in Atlanta. 

Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against a hot team, a team that won 8 of their last 10 games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years.  Bet the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Alabama/Georgia National Championship No-Brainer on Alabama -175 

I backed Alabama -1.5 as my 25* College Bowl Game of the Year in a 24-6 win over Clemson in the first round of the college football playoffs.  I’m not about to buck them now as they still fit many of the same reasons I backed them against Clemson. 

I thought Alabama came into the four-team playoff grossly underrated for the first time ever.  It’s because they were the No. 4 seed and barely got in after not winning the SEC Championship thanks to their loss to Auburn in the regular season finale.  They actually came in as an underdog by perception because they were the No. 4 seed going against the No. 1 seed Clemson. 

Let’s just think back to the National Championship last year.  If Alabama hadn’t gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game to lose to Clemson, they would be going for their 3rd straight national title.  And if that was the case, which it easily could be, Alabama would be upwards of a 7-point favorite or more here against Georgia.  Instead they are only 3.5-point favorites and -175 on the money line, which I think is the better bet in this matchup in case they do win by 3.  But I’m confident they will win this game. 

Alabama has the best defense in the country, and that showed in limiting Clemson to just 6 points and 188 total yards last week.  They match up very well with Georgia, a predominant running team that only averages 173 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide only give up 92 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, with the latter being the best mark in the entire country.  The only teams the Crimson Tide struggle against are ones with mobile quarterbacks, and Jake Fromm doesn’t fit that category.  He has rushed for just 94 yards on the season and 2.0 per carry. 

I think the situation is better for Alabama having more time to get ready for this game.  They played in New Orleans, made easy work of Clemson, and have a short trip up to Atlanta for the National Championship.  Meanwhile, Georgia played all the way out in California and as a result will have the tougher travel schedule.  They also needed to exert more effort as they went to double-overtime in a 54-48 thriller.  And I think the Bulldogs are just happy to be here, while Alabama is on a mission to make up for that devastating loss in the national title game last season. 

Alabama has been favored in 112 of its 113 games.  The only time it wasn’t a favorite was as a 1.5-point underdog at Georgia in 2015.  Well, the Crimson Tide rolled the Bulldogs 38-10 in that game.  Rarely ever do we get to back them as small as -175 money line favorites.  This is basically free money in my opinion because they aren’t going to lose this game. 

My favorite trend in this game is that Nick Saban is 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS when facing his former assistants.  This is a big brother, little brother phenomenon.  Saban has won by 14-plus points in all 11 games and by an average of a whopping 29 points per game in this spot.  Kirby Smart will be overmatched in this matchup. 

Saban has also had great success in games that are expected to be low scoring, which this game is considering the total is only 45 points.  Alabama is 45-19 ATS in its last 64 games with a total set of 50 points or less under Saban.  This goes back to the point I made before that the only teams that give the Crimson Tide trouble are teams with dual-threat quarterbacks when shootouts are the expectation.  This game will be a grind-it-out, hard-hitting game that plays right into Alabama’s hands.  Saban and company live for these kinds of games. 

Saban is 21-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Alabama.  His teams are winning these matchups by 15.1 points per game on average.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  I think we are getting a nice discount here with the Crimson Tide on the money line because a very large amount of people who are betting Georgia are betting them on the money line.  Bet Alabama on the Money Line.

20* Bills/Jaguars NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +9 

Both the Bills and Jaguars were Cinderella stories this season.  The Jaguars won their first-ever AFC South title, will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and will hosting their first playoff game since 1999.  The Bills were able to snap the longest playoff drought in the NFL, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 1999. 

The books have simply set this number too high.  The Jaguars cannot be laying more than a touchdown to the Bills in this matchup.  The Jaguars may be 3 to 4 points better on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to 6 or 7.  I think we’re getting a ton of value with the Bills +9 here folks. 

A lot will be made of the Bills’ point differential leading into this game.  It’s the fifth-worst point differential of any team to ever make the playoffs at -57.  But keep in mind that Nate Peterman was responsible for a lot of that in a 24-54 loss to the Chargers.  And also, the four teams will worse point differentials in playoff history all won their first playoff game. 

Another thing you’ll hear is that the Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks.  Well, now they’ll be up against a mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has been one of the most underrated signal callers in the NFL over the past few seasons.  Taylor led the Bills to three wins in the final four games just to get into the playoffs.  Taylor has completed 62.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 427 yards and four scores on 5.1 per carry. 

I think the Jaguars made a big mistake not resting their starters in Week 17 against the Titans.  They were already locked into the No. 3 seed and had nothing to play for.  Doug Marrone and his old-school mentality that may have been influenced by Tom Coughlin was clearly not happy with the 33-44 loss at San Francisco the week before.  But the Jaguars were even worse against the Titans in a 10-15 loss, managing just 227 total yards while turning it over four times.  They aren’t playing well coming in, and now they won’t be fresh, either. 

The Bills have really stepped it up defensively here down the stretch.  They have given up 16 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  The only exceptions were the 23 and the 37 allowed to the Patriots in their two meetings with them, which is no shame.  Their defense is good enough to contain Blake Bortles and this weak Jacksonville offense.  That’s another reason the Jaguars can’t be this big of a favorite because Bortles is still their quarterback. 

The strength of the Bills offensively is their running game.  They have rushed for at least 104 yards in six of their last seven games and rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 126.1 yards per game.  LeSean McCoy is a fast healer and should be ready to go as he returned to practice late in the week.  And the weakness of the Jaguars’ defense is against the run.  They rank 21st in rushing defense at 116.2 yards per game and 4.3 per carry allowed.  The Jaguars have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in five of their last six games overall. 

A big reason for the Jaguars’ success this season is their weak schedule.  They actually played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the entire NFL.  The Bills played the 16th-toughest schedule.  According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS since the inception of the Wild Card.  Underdogs that played the harder schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS.  Take the Bills Sunday. 

15* Falcons/Rams NFC Saturday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5 

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be highly motivated to make a deep run in the playoffs after what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.  They have held it together pretty well this season and have avoided that dreaded Super Bowl hangover. 

I like the fact that the Falcons have been in must-win mode here down the stretch, which is basically playoff mode, so they are battle-tested and ready to go.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 down the stretch while outgaining all four opponents, their only loss coming on the road at New Orleans. 

Last week they needed a win to get in the playoffs, and boy did they deliver.  They beat the Panthers 22-10 at home and outgained them by 123 total yards.  Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown without an interception to lead the way.  The defense came through with arguably their best performance of the season, limiting Cam Newton to 14-of-34 passing for 180 yards and forcing three interceptions.  The Panthers managed just 248 total yards in the game. 

The Rams were smart to rest many of their starters against the 49ers last week.  And I have been high on this team all season, but they weren’t in playoff mode in Week 17, and I don’t trust their inexperience in this pressure-packed situation.  Mostly everyone on the roster has little-to-no playoff experience, including QB Jared Goff.  I certainly trust Ryan more in this situation than Goff.  And we’re getting 6.5 points with the Falcons to boot. 

The Falcons actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  Only the Saints, Jaguars and Vikings have been better in this department.  That’s even more impressive when you consider the Falcons faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season.  This team isn’t as broken as the media leads you on to believe. 

While the Falcons played the 4th-toughest schedule, the Rams played the 17th-hardest.  That’s important when we look at a wild card system that is tried and true.  Since the inception of the wild card, teams that played the tougher schedule according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS.  Underdogs with the tougher schedule are 21-9 ATS.  When the difference is 10 or more, like it is here (4th & 17th), the team that played the harder schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS. 

Atlanta is 6-0 ATS against NFC West opponents over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Saturday. 

20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon.  It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. 

The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home.  Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season.  In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year!  They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. 

The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games.  They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games.  Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated.  And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game.  Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. 

The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch.  They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall.  Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. 

Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch.  They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games.  They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games.  They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall.  They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. 

The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points.  Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -1.5 

Nick Saban with revenge and extra time to prepare.  Sign me up.  The Crimson Tide get a chance to avenge their 35-31 loss to Clemson in the National Championship last year.  I fully expect them to take advantage of their opportunity, and this time around they won’t have to deal with Deshaun Watson. 

This is the third straight year these teams will meet in the playoffs.  The Crimson Tide were 6-point favorites two years ago and 6.5-point favorites last year.  So the fact that they are only 1.5-point favorites in the grudge match shows that there is some line value here. 

Let’s look at those last two meetings.  Alabama led 45-33 two years ago with two minutes left before Clemson got a meaningless touchdown with 12 seconds left to cover as 6.5-point dogs.  Then last year, Alabama led 31-28 with only two minutes left, only to watch Clemson score on the game’s final play on a pick play that wasn’t called to win 35-31. 

That sick loss has sat in Saban and the Crimson Tide’s stomach for a full year now, and they can’t wait to get the taste out of their mouths.  And they won’t have to deal with Watson this time.  Kelly Bryant is a good quarterback, but he’s certainly no Watson and isn’t battle-tested in these big games like Watson was. 

I think Alabama actually comes into the four-team playoff undervalued because of the fact that they are the No. 4 seed and they ended their season with a 14-26 loss at Auburn, which was their only loss of the season.  It’s the first time in a long time I can remember this team being as undervalued as they are right now. 

Conversely, Clemson comes into this game overvalued due to being the No. 1 seed.  They were last seen beating a banged-up Miami team 38-3 in the ACC Championship.  I think that Saban will feed off of the fact that they are the higher seed and cement in his players’ minds that they are the underdogs, despite the fact that Vegas disagrees, and I agree with Vegas. 

The Crimson Tide were banged up on defense down the stretch this season, but they are expected to get several key players back along the defensive front seven and in the secondary for this game.  They should be about as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season.  And I’d put this defense up against anyone. 

Alabama gives up just 11.5 points per game, 258 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 27 points, 382 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Clemson has an elite defense as well, but it’s not as good as this Alabama unit when you compare the numbers. 

Alabama also has the edge on offense, and it’s not really even that close.  Clemson has taken a big step back on offense this season.  Yards per play is the most important stat in my opinion.  Alabama averages 6.9 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 per play, while Clemson averages just 6.0 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 per play.  So essentially the Crimson Tide are 0.9 yards per play better than Clemson offensively. 

Saban is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread as the coach of Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are 42-21 ATS in their last 63 road games following one or more consecutive ATS losses.  Alabama is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf.  The Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.  Bet Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Monday. 

15* Georgia/Oklahoma Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma +2.5 

The Big 12 has put together an impressive showing in these bowl games with a 5-2 record thus far.  And Oklahoma was the class of the Big 12, and it wasn’t really even close.  Once again the Sooners won the conference and will get another shot at the four-team playoff here, and they’ll want to redeem themselves after losing to Clemson in their last appearance. 

Now they have the best quarterback in the country in Baker Mayfield.  He leads a high-octane Oklahoma offense that is putting up 44.9 points per game, 583 yards per game and 8.4 yards per play.  The Sooners are scoring 17 points per game, averaging 181 yards per game and 3.1 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average this season.  This offense is simply unstoppable. 

TCU has a comparable defense to Georgia.  The Horned Frogs were one of the best defensive teams in the country this season.  And Oklahoma beat TCU 38-20 in the regular season while putting up 533 total yards.  Then they backed up that win with a 41-17 win over the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Championship Game.  Georgia isn’t going to be able to stop Mayfield and company, either. 

I think Georgia benefited from an extremely soft schedule this season.  The SEC East was arguably the worst division of all Power 5 conferences.  And they draw Mississippi State and Auburn from the SEC West, and actually lost to Auburn 17-40 in the regular season.  The Bulldogs were able to get revenge in the SEC Championship against Auburn to get into the four-team playoff, but it doesn’t mask the fact that their schedule was rather easy this year outside of a 1-1 split with Auburn. 

Oklahoma is 4-0 in its last four games against SEC opponents, which includes a bowl win over Alabama a few years back.  The Sooners have been able to step up to the plate against the better teams, and they have been able to handle the SEC.  That’s evidence by the fact that they are 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, and a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl. 

20* UCF/Auburn Peach Bowl No-Brainer on UCF +10 

Let’s take a look at the history of how these Group of 5 teams have done against the Power 5 opponents dating back to the BCS era and currently the New Year’s 6.  In the last 19 meetings, the Power 5 team has been favored 16 times.  Well, the Group of 5 team has actually gone 13-6 straight up in those 19 meetings. 

I think there’s an obvious explanation for the success of the Group of 5 team holding that 13-6 straight up edge.  The Group of 5 team is almost always max motivated, as will be the case for UCF in this game as they are 12-0 and feel like they belong in the four-team playoff. 

Conversely, the Power 5 team is not motivated.  It’s a lose-lose situation for them.  If they win the game they were expected to win anyways.  If they lose the game, it looks really bad.  And that Power 5 team likely just missed out on the four-team playoff or a bigger bowl game dating back to the BCS era. 

That is the case for Auburn here.  The Tigers would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Georgia for a second time in the SEC Championship Game.  Instead, they lost that game and now have to settle for the Peach Bowl.  They will still be disappointed that they aren’t in the playoff, and they won’t be fully motivated for this game. 

UCF has made me a lot of money this season, going 12-0 SU & 7-3-1 ATS.  The Knights were really undervalued early in the year going 5-0 ATS in their last first five games while winning each of their first seven games by double-digits.  I think the fact that they went just 2-3 ATS in their final five games has them undervalued. 

The schedule got tougher and the pressure mounted down the stretch.  They beat South Florida 49-42 to get in the AAC Championship Game, then had to face a revenge-minded Memphis team that they had beaten 40-13 earlier in the year.  Memphis gave them all they wanted in a 62-55 overtime win. 

I think the experience from those two close games will pay dividends for them in this game against Auburn, which I expect to be close as well.  And instead of having a huge target on their backs like they did during their 12-0 run, they get to be the hunters in this game.  All the pressure is on Auburn, a big-name team from the SEC with the target on their backs in this one. 

I also love the fact that Scott Frost has remained with the team and will coach this game.  He will keep his assistants with him before they move on full time to Nebraska after this game.  It shows a lot about the character of Frost in wanting to see this unbeaten 13-0 season through. 

"There's some unusual circumstances, but our staff is completely committed and we're going to do everything we can for this football team," Frost said. "It's an honor to be invited to this game. These players have poured their hearts out to accomplish a lot this year."

The Knights lead the nation in scoring offense at 49.4 points per game.  They also have an elite defense, giving up just 25.2 points per game.  They won’t be overmatched athletically as Frost did a tremendous job of recruiting athletes that can compete with SEC teams.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Take UCF  in the Peach Bowl Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +9 

The fact that this is a must-win game for the Seahawks is baked into the number.  They need to win and have the Falcons lost at home to the Panthers to get into the playoffs.  But this line has gotten out of hand and indicates the Cardinals are just going to lay down for them.  That won’t be the case. 

There is rumors that it may be the last game for Bruce Arians at Arizona.  His players absolutely love him and it’s well documented.  It could also be the final game for Larry Fitzgerald.  I think everyone will play their hearts out for those two guys, and they would love nothing more than to be the team that knocked the hated Seahawks out of the playoffs. 

Quietly, the Cardinals have gotten to 7-8 this season and will be motivated to finish .500 as well.  They have been hit hard by injuries, but have battled through it.  They are playing their best football of the season down the stretch. 

The Cardinals have actually outgained four of their last five opponents while going 3-2 over their last five games.  Their defense is playing as well as any defense in the NFL, giving up just 247.4 yards per game in their last five games.  And Drew Stanton and his big arm and mobility has given the offense spark.  He is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. 

I think Seattle beating Dallas 21-12 on the road last week has them overvalued now.  But that was one of the most misleading finals you will ever see.  They actually had more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) of offense in that game.  They were outgained by 147 yards by the Cowboys. 

In fact, the Seahawks have been playing terrible for four straight weeks.  They have been outgained in four consecutive games and by a total of 488 yards in those four, or by an average of 122 yards per game.  The betting public is quick to forget that Seattle was just blown out at home 42-7 by the Rams the week prior.  What a difference a week and a misleading 21-12 win over Dallas makes.  Their offense is still a mess, and their defense still has injuries everywhere. 

Arizona always plays Seattle tough, and that will be no different hear.  And home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late.  The road team is 5-0-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Arizona won outright as 9-point dogs and as 3-point dogs in its last two trips to Seattle.  The Cardinals may not win outright Sunday, but they will give the Seahawks more of a fight than they bargained for. 

Arians is 9-1 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached.  Arians is a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a loss loss by 7 points or less as the coach of Arizona.  After a tough 22-16 home loss to the Seahawks thanks to a miracle play from Russell Wilson, the Cardinals will be revenge-minded here and have the ability to pull off the upset.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +4 

I’ve been on the 49ers every week since Jimmy Garoppolo took over.  I’m not about to buck them now.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since he took over.  He is undefeated in his career as a starting quarterback dating back to his time with New England.  He is the real deal. 

If you don’t believe Garoppolo is for real after he put up 44 points on Jacksonville’s vaunted defense last week, you need your head checked.  Garopplo is completing 69.0% of his passes for 1,268 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the 49ers.  He is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.  Those are MVP-type numbers over a four-game sample. 

The success the offense is having has prompted the defense to step up their game and play with a new passion as well.  The defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game over their past four games.  It’s a stop unit with a ton of talent along the front seven, and the secondary intercepted Blake Bortles three times last week.  The 49ers want to finish off this 5-0 run and keep their momentum going into the offseason. 

But the key handicap for this game is the motivation for the and rest situation for the Rams.  I locked in the 49ers +4 early in the week anticipating that the Rams might rest starters.  And that’s precisely what has happened in this game.  Head coach Sean McVey came out and said that almost all of his key starters are going to rest, including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and many others. 

It was another wise move by McVey, who has been as impressive as any head coach this season.  It makes 100% sense.  The Rams are going to have to play next week, and they’re going to get a home game.  It would actually benefit them to lose and get the No. 4 seed instead of fighting for the No. 3 seed. 

That’s because the No. 4 seed is going to likely get to play the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles two weeks from now.  They would take on struggling Nick Foles and the Eagles, who have limped to the finish line, instead of taking on No. 2 seed Minnesota, which looks like the best team in the NFC.  The Rams were already throttled 24-7 on the road by the Vikings and don’t want to have to play them again.  They nearly beat the Eagles, losing 35-43 in the game that Carson Wentz got hurt. 

Plays on favorites (San Francisco) after covering two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams.  Take the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I locked this line in at +4 early in the week anticipating the Rams would likely be resting their starters.  That has turned out to be true.  This is still a 20* play all the way to 49ers -3.  It’s a 15* play at -3.5 or higher.  I think there’s a good chance the 49ers blow them out of the building still, so don’t let the line move shy you away from betting them.  It's a benefit to my long-term clients to get the plays as soon as I release them instead of purchasing the day of the game and getting worse lines.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +14 

The Cleveland Browns are now assured the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.  I don’t think they were purposely tanking this season to get that pick, but that’s what happens when you go 0-15.  So now their focus will be on getting a win and not becoming the second 0-16 team, joining the Detroit Lions. 

I took the Browns early in the week when the line came out anticipating that the Steelers were going to rest their starters.  The Steelers clinched a first-round bye on Monday with their 34-6 win over the Texans.  So now they’ll be on a short week, and they would be wise to rest their starters. 

Plus, the Patriots are 15.5-point home favorites over the Jets.  Conventional wisdom says the Patriots aren’t losing that game, so the Steelers have no chance to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  The more important thing is for them to be healthy going into the playoffs because they haven’t been fully healthy for years. 

The Killer B’s have all missed time in the playoffs in recent years.  Le’Veon Bell seems to get hurt going into or during the playoffs every year.  But he’s healthy now and Mike Tomlin would be wise to sit him.  He would also be wise to sit Big Ten, and Antonio Brown is already out.  He is expected to return for the playoffs, though. 

Tomlin has already hinted at all three of these players resting early on in the week, and tackle Marcus Gilbert came out and said as much as Big Ten and Bell won’t play.  He said Landry Jones will get the start.  Don’t be surprised if several other key players get the day off. 

This happened in Week 17 last year as well.  Cleveland nearly beat the Steelers on the road.  They lost 24-27 at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs in overtime.  Don’t be surprised if this line gets down to close to the -3 mark as well if Tomlin rests as many players as I’m anticipating, and plays this like a preseason game as he should. 

Cleveland played one of its best games of the year against Pittsburgh back in Week 1.  The Browns only lost that game 18-21 as 10-point home underdogs.  They haven’t been as bad as their 0-15 record would suggest this season.  But they are last in the NFL in turnover differential by a wide margin.  They are -28 in turnovers on the season, which is almost unheard of. 

Design Kizer should have a much better day against a Steelers team that will be treating this like a preseason game.  I think the Browns want to go into the offseason with some momentum and a win.  They are only getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season, so obviously it has just been the turnovers that killed them.  There are many teams with worse yardage differentials than them. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Cleveland) - off a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent that scored 30 or more points in their last game are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pittsburgh is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

Note: This play is a 25* all the way down to +10.  It's a 20* from +7 to +9.5. It's a 15* at +6.5 or less.  I realize this line has moved a ton since more information became available.  That's why it's a benefit to my long-term clients to get my plays as soon as I release them instead of buying them the day of the game and getting worse lines.

15* Wisconsin/Miami Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami +6 

No Power 5 team played a softer schedule than Wisconsin this season.  The Badgers played in the weak Big Ten West Division and took advantage.  That is evident in the fact that they were double-digit favorites in 11 of their 12 regular season games this year. 

We saw that weak schedule catch up to them in the Big Ten Championship in a 21-27 loss to Ohio State, which is also a team that I think is overrated.  But that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Badgers were outgained by 151 yards by the Buckeyes and should have lost by more. 

Now the Badgers will have to deal with either the first or second-best team they have faced all season in Miami.  The Hurricanes went through the gauntlet this season in the ACC, and they also beat Notre Dame 41-8 out of conference.  I think they come into this game undervalued due to losing their final two games to Pittsburgh and Clemson on the road after their 10-0 start. 

I like this matchup for the Hurricanes.  Their front seven is loaded with athletes that will be able to slow down Wisconsin’s running game.  The Hurricanes only allow 146 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  And they have a ball-hawking secondary, forcing 22 turnovers in their last seven games.  That could be a problem for Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook, who has thrown 15 interceptions this year. 

Wisconsin didn’t handle the most athletic team they’ve seen this season in Ohio State very well.  They gave up 449 total yards to the Buckeyes and were held to just 298 total yards themselves.  They gave up 238 rushing yards to Ohio State.  I have no doubt Miami’s athletes are going to be a problem in this game on both sides of the ball for the slower Badgers. 

I also question Wisconsin’s motivation in this game.  It’s the second straight year that the Badgers have had to play in a second-tier bowl game.  Had they beaten Ohio State, they would have made the four-team playoff.  After letting that opportunity slip through their grasps, I don’t think they’ll be nearly as motivated to win the Orange Bowl. 

This is going to be a home game for the Hurricanes being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.  That is a huge advantage for their team as this has become a rabid fan base once again now that Mark Richt has put the program back on the map.  And Richt has proven to be a quality coach with extra time to prepare, going 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in his career in bowl games. 

"It means a lot," defensive lineman Kendrick Norton said. "Obviously, it's going to be like a home game for us, so we will be comfortable. Miami hasn't been (in the Orange Bowl) for a while, so we have a lot of pride in getting there and doing well.”

The Hurricanes went 7-0 at home this season and outscored opponents by 18.0 points per game.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  I believe the wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Miami Saturday.

20* Washington/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -1.5 

Penn State is good enough to be a playoff team.  Their two losses this season came by a combined 4 points to Ohio State and Michigan State both on the road.  In fact, they have now lost three games over the past year and a half by a combined 7 points when you factor in their 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl last year.  I would argue that they are the best team in the Big Ten right now. 

The Nittany Lions are loaded on offense with Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and four receivers with 40-plus receptions this season.  They average 41.6 points per game.  They also have an elite defense that gives up 15.5 points per game.  I think the Nittany Lions are the more battle-tested team playing a much tougher schedule in the Big Ten East division. 

I’m way down on the Pac-12 in these bowl games.  I’ve faded several Pac-12 teams with success up to this point.  Washington played a very soft schedule this season and isn’t battle-tested.  The Huskies lost to both Arizona State and Stanford on the road this season, managing just 7 points and 230 total yards against ASU and 22 points and 315 total yards against Stanford. 

And that’s the problem for the Huskies and why I don’t trust them.  Quarterback Jake Browning has come up short time and time again in big games.  He was off the mark against Stanford and ASU this year, and he was overwhelmed against both USC and Alabama last year.  He has thrown for only 2,544 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. 

McSorley has upped his play in the biggest games with what he did against USC last year and at Ohio State this year on the road, leading the Nittany Lions to 49 and 38 points against those two teams, respectively.  He has accounted for 37 total touchdowns this season with 26 passing and 11 rushing.  I simply trust McSorley more than Browning at the all-important QB position in what is otherwise a pretty evenly matched game elsewhere on the field. 

The Nittany Lions are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  They have been extremely undervalued for two straight seasons now.  James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over conference opponents as the coach of Penn State.  Franklin is 7-0 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Nittany Lions.  Franklin is 9-0 ATS off three straight conference wins as the coach of Penn State.  Take these three 100% never lost systems straight to the bank today.  Bet Penn State Saturday. 

20* USC/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on USC +8.5 

This is a classic case of Urban Meyer and Ohio State getting way too much respect in another bowl game.  There’s no way this line should be 8.5 or even over a touchdown.  It should be close to Ohio State -3, and I wouldn’t be surprised if USC won this game outright. 

I question the Buckeyes’ motivation a little in this game because they thought they did enough to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big Ten.  But a 16-31 home loss to Oklahoma and a 24-55 road loss at Iowa as 18-point favorites did them in, and I 100% agree with the committee they aren’t one of the best four teams in the country.  They have to be deflated a little playing in this second-tier bowl game. 

USC, on the other hand, was never going to make the four-team playoff after losing two games to Washington State and Notre Dame both on the road midseason.  But I like the way this team fought back by going 5-0 over their final five games.  I think they’re more than happy to be playing in the Cotton Bowl after beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship because they were never talked about for the four-team playoff down the stretch. 

It seemed like every time Ohio State took a step up in class this season they did not play well.  They lost to Oklahoma and Iowa as mentioned before.  They needed to erase a 19-point deficit at home to beat Penn State 39-38.  They trailed Michigan most the way before winning 31-20.  And they couldn’t put away Wisconsin in a 27-21 win in the Big Ten Championship.  I would argue USC is the best team they have faced since Oklahoma, so I don’t know how oddsmakers can expect them to beat the Trojans by more than a touchdown. 

USC has played Big Ten teams each of the last three seasons in bowls.  They went 2-1 with their only loss coming 21-23 to Wisconsin.  They beat Penn State 52-49 last year in the Rose Bowl, the same Penn State team that had beaten Ohio State.  They racked up 575 total yards on the Nittany Lions behind 453 passing from Sam Darnold.  He’ll be ultra-motivated to put on another lasting impression and improve his draft stock.  He threw 14 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions over his final seven games this season. 

The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They padded their stats against weak Big Ten teams this year.  Now they take a massive step up in class in the Cotton Bowl.  Bet USC Friday. 

15* Michigan State/Washington State Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Michigan State +1 

This line is moving toward Michigan State for good reason.  Washington State opened as a 4.5-point favorite and now is only a 1-point favorite and even underdogs in some spots.  I totally agree with this move as I currently lock in Michigan State as a 1-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. 

For starters, Mark Dantonio is 17-4 ATS in his last 21 games as an underdog.  I realize the Spartans may not be dogs by the time this game goes off.  But it’s still worth noting and just goes to show how he has been one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He almost always exceeds expectations. 

That was certainly the case this season as nothing was expected from Michigan State after they went just 3-9 last year.  They returned only eight starters from that squad.  It was a young team, and Dantonio worked his magic by getting the Spartans to 9-3.  Now they have a chance for their fourth 10-win season in the past five years and will be highly motivated to get it. 

It wasn’t a fluky 9-3, either.  Michigan State actually outgained 10 of its 12 opponents this season with he only exceptions both coming on the road at Ohio State and Michigan, and they beat Michigan 14-10 as 13-point dogs.  They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game on the season.  Their defense has been very good, giving up just 298 yards per game. 

I really question Washington State’s motivation coming into this game.  The Cougars had a chance to get to the Pac-12 Championship in their season finale against Washington for a second consecutive season.  And for a second straight year, they fell flat on their faces with a 14-41 loss at 9.5-point underdogs.  Luke Falk was overwhelmed and played one of the worst games of his career with 3 interceptions.  After playing for such high stakes and coming up short, I can’t see the Cougars being all that motivated to play Michigan State here. 

Now Falk’s job gets even tougher due to the losses of his two best receivers in Tavares Martin Jr. and Isaiah Johnson0Mack, who have both been dismissed from the team heading into the bowl game.  These two combined for 130 receptions, 1,386 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns this season.  The fact that both aren’t playing helps explain this line move in Michigan State’s favor. 

Washington State hasn’t fared very well in the three bowl games under Mike Leach over the past four seasons.  Despite being favored in all three games, the Cougars have gone just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They lost as 5-point favorites to Colorado State in 2013, barely beat Miami 20-14 as 3-point favorites in 2015, and lost 12-17 to Minnesota as 10-point favorites last year.  The Spartans are by far the best bowl team that the Cougars will have faced in the Leach era. 

The Spartans have been impressive in bowl games over the last six years under Dantonio.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS despite being underdogs in all five.  They lost to Alabama in the four-team playoff two years ago, but upset Georgia, TCU, Stanford and Baylor in their previous four bowl games. 

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 150 or fewer yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Michigan State Thursday. 

20* VA Tech/Oklahoma State Camping World Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -4 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were a national title contender coming into the season.  So their 9-3 record is a bit of a disappointment, but it also has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.  This team is among the Top 10 in the country talent-wise, and I think the price is cheap here as only 4-point favorites over the VA Tech Hokies in the Camping World Bowl because of it. 

The Cowboys were a very public team after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories.  But they couldn’t live up to the expectations after that, going just 3-6 ATS over their final nine games as they were consistently laying big numbers that they couldn’t cover.  But now they are in the type of price range that’s easy for them to cover as they basically just have to win the game by a touchdown or more here. 

The three losses came to Oklahoma, TCU and Kansas State at home, and they were competitive in all three games.  Most impressively is the fact that Oklahoma State went 6-0 on the road.  The Cowboys averaged 42.7 points and 532 yards per game on the road while giving up just 25.5 points and 345 yards per game on the highway.  They outscored teams by 17.2 points per game and outgunned them by 187 yards per game on the road this season. 

Everyone knows about Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense that averages 46.2 points, 576 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play on the season against teams that allow 28.7 points, 420 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They are topping their opponent’s season averages by 17.5 points per game, 156 yards per game and 1.4 per play.  Mason Rudolph is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, completing 65% of his passes for 4,553 yards with 35 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions while averaging 10.0 per attempt. 

But most folks don’t realize how improved Oklahoma State’s defense is this season.  The Cowboys are allowing only 400 yards per game and 5.5 per play against teams that average 415 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Their defense fell off toward the end of the year against Oklahoma, and then with hangover games against Iowa State and Kansas State.  But this defense is loaded with speed and talent and will be re-focused for this bowl game against Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies have a great defense, there’s no question, but their offense is just average.  They score 28.7 points pre game and average 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.6 per play.  They struggle to throw the football, and they are stubborn trying to run the ball.  They average 44 rushing attempts per game, but only 167 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. 

Virginia Tech’s offense won’t be able to keep up with Mason Rudolph and company in this one.  That’s especially the case now that they are going to be without two of their best playmakers in WR Cam Phillips and RB Travon McMillian.  Phillips is the leading receiver on the team by a landslide with 71 receptions for 964 yards and 7 touchdowns, so his loss is huge.  McMillian leads the team in rushing and is a significant loss as well. 

Oklahoma State is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game.  Mike Gundy is 19-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Gundy is 15-4 ATS after two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday. 

20* Purdue/Arizona Foster Farms Bowl No-Brainer on Purdue +3.5 

Jeff Brohm seriously deserved coach of the year consideration for the job he did at Purdue this season.  He took a team that was 9-39 over the past four seasons and got them to 6-6 and a bowl game in the rugged Big Ten.  This team was undervalued all seasons with their 8-4 ATS record, and I think they remain undervalued as underdogs here to Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. 

What the Boilermakers did down the stretch shows how badly they wanted to make a bowl game.  They went 3-1 over their final four games, beating Illinois 29-10 at home, Iowa 24-15 as 6-point road underdogs, and Indiana 31-24 at home.  That Indiana game was a 31-10 blowout late in the fourth quarter before giving up two garbage touchdowns late.  And in their lone loss, they put up 438 total yards against a very good Northwestern team in a 13-23 road loss.  They outgained the Wildcats in that contest. 

So there’s no question that Purdue wants to be playing in this bowl game.  It will be their first bowl game since 2012 and only their third bowl appearance in the last 10 years.  And Brohm is 2-0 in his career in bowl games.  At Western Kentucky, they beat Memphis 51-31 as 7-point favorites in 2016 and USF 45-35 as 2-point favorites in 2015.  I trust Brohm and his players to come forth with a big effort in this game Wednesday. 

Brohm was known for his offense at Western Kentucky, and while they do have a solid offense that averages 5.6 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 per play, the real improvement on this team has come on defense.  The Boilermakers only allow 19.3 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 28.6 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.3 points and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That’s the sign of an elite defense. 

I think Arizona remains overvalued due to the Khalil Tate factor.  He has taken the college football world by storm.  And he started off tremendous against some bad teams, but then teams got film on him and the Wildcats struggled down the stretch.  Arizona went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS over its final four games with its only win coming against terrible Oregon State.  The Wildcats lost all three games by double-digits. 

No question Purdue has a massive edge on defense in this game.  And the matchup favors this Purdue defense because stopping Tate and the running game is the key.  The Boilermakers are equipped to do just that.  They give up just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 174 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on average.  They are holding teams to 42 yards and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages. 

Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.1 points, 464 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 28 points, 420 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Wildcats have allowed 37 or more points in six of their last eight games coming into this bowl game.  It’s a defense that cannot be trusted, and certainly one that can’t be trusted to lay points here. 

While Brohm is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in bowl games, Arizona head coach Rich Rodriquez has been terrible in bowl games.  Rodriquez is just 3-7 ATS in his career in bowl games.  Arizona barely beat New Mexico last year and barely beat Nevada a few years back.  The Wildcats lost when they took a step up in class in recent bowl games against Oklahoma State and Boise State.  And I think Purdue is a step up in class for them here.  The Wildcats are also 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.   

Rodriquez is 1-10 ATS in road games after three straight games where 60 or more points were scored in all games he has coached.  Brohm is 10-2 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached.  Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two years.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  These seven trends combine for a 47-3 system backing the Boilermakers.  Bet Purdue Wednesday.

15* Boston College/Iowa Pinstripe Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

Let’s just start out with the fact that Iowa is going to be highly motivated for a victory in this bowl game.  The Hawkeyes have lost five straight bowl games and really want to end that streak.  But there’s a reason they’ve lost five straight because they have been underdogs in all five against superior competition. 

The five losses have come to Oklahoma as 13-point dogs, LSU as 7-point dogs, Tennessee as 3-point dogs, Stanford as 6-point dogs and Florida as 3-point dogs.  Now they finally get to take a step down in class after a 7-5 season against 7-5 Boston College.  And they’re favored for a reason here because they are clearly the better team.  And these Iowa seniors will be motivated to taste their first bowl victory. 

Iowa closed it season with a 56-14 blowout at Nebraska.  Four of Iowa’s five losses this season came by single-digits, and the one exception was a loss at Wisconsin the week after their 55-24 win over Ohio State.  That was arguably the best win of the season of any team in college football against the Buckeyes, and it was clearly a massive letdown spot the next week against Wisconsin. 

Boston College had a very impressive season with one of the youngest teams in the country.  But a big reason for the Eagles’ success was freshman quarterback Anthony Brown.  This offense isn’t nearly as explosive without Brown’s dual-threat ability.  He has missed the final two games of the season. 

I think people will see that Boston College blew out its final opponents so the Brown loss isn’t that big.  But one of the wins was against one of the worst teams in college football in UConn 39-16, and the other was against a Syracuse team that was without starting quarterback Eric Dungey by a final of 42-14.  UConn and Syracuse have terrible defenses, and this will be a big step up in class for backup QB Darius Wade against this Iowa defense. 

Boston College only averages 163 passing yards per game and 5.7 per attempt.  So the key to stopping the Eagles is stopping their running game, which averages 224 yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  That makes this a perfect matchup for head coach Kirk Ferentz and this Iowa defense.  His teams have always thrived against power-running teams, and that will show in this next trend. 

Ferentz is 36-15 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes gave up just 19.9 points per game this season, and they allowed just 142 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry in the rugged Big Ten.  Iowa is 55-28 ATS in its last 83 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten opponents.  Boston College is 1-8 ATS in its last nine December games.  Take Iowa in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday. 

15* Kansas State/UCLA Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on UNDER 60.5 

Josh Rosen, the potential No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, is doubtful to play in this game with a concussion.  The line moving from K-State -2.5 to -6.5 indicates he is not going to play.  That completely changes the complexion of this game, and I think the UNDER is a great beat tonight. 

Rosen means everything to this offense.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,717 yards with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season while averaging 8.2 per attempt.  Backup Devon Modster hasn’t been nearly as effective in spot duty for him.  Look for the Bruins to go to more of a run-first approach without him. 

Running the ball certainly isn’t a strength of the Bruins.  They are averaging just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  Kansas State been tremendous at stopping the run this season, holding opponents to just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. 

The Wildcats once again feature a methodical offense that likes to churn yards out on the ground.  They only average 182 passing yards per game.  They rush 39 times per game for 187 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  They will keep the ball on the ground in this game and churn out yards and burn clock. 

Kansas State is also likely to go with a redshirt freshman at quarterback due to injuries to starter Jesse Ertz and backup Alex Delton.  He went 10-of-21 for 152 yards in the season finale against Iowa State.  He isn’t likely to handle this big stage that well, and the game plan will be conservative with him under center.   

Plays on the UNDER on neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UCLA) - off a home win against a conference rival against an opponent off a win against a conference rival are 28-9 (75.7%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five December games.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Utah/West Virginia UNDER 57 

I expect a low-scoring affair between Utah and West Virginia today.  The biggest reason is that West Virginia is going to be without starting quarterback Will Grier, who means everything to their offense.  They will have to go to a more run-first approach without him. 

Grier was one of the better quarterbacks in the country this season.  He completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while averaging 9.0 per attempt.  Backup Chris Chugunov completes just 54.8 percent of his passes and averages 6.6 per attempt in limited action in Grier’s place. 

Utah boasts an elite defense once again this season that gives up just 23.9 points, 353 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 29.5 points, 405 yards and 5.8 per play.  They are stout up front and will be able to limit WVU’s run-heavy attack in this one. 

Utah also insists on running the football more than it throws it.  But the Utes have struggled to run the ball this year.  They average 39 attempts for 161 yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that give up 188 yards per game and 4.6 per carry on the ground.  They are a below-average running team. 

Utah is 29-10 UNDER in its last 39 road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Utah last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Mountaineers last eight December games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* Raiders/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -9 

The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.  It’s safe to say they will be motivated to the max.  A win would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17 and really get a leg up on the competition heading into the playoffs. 

Conversely, the Oakland Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  And the way they were eliminated will be very difficult to recover from.  Derek Carr was diving for the game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys last week, but he fumbled through the end zone for a touchback.  Gone with that fumble was any hope of them making the postseason.  There’s no question in my mind that the Raiders will suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they won’t even show up Monday night. 

The Raiders also have some significant injuries at the wide receiver position that hamper them even further.  Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are highly questionable heading into this game.  Cooper has a nagging ankle injury, while Crabtree suffered a concussion against the Cowboys that forced him off the field for the final play of the game.  They may both play, but I question the effectiveness of Carr’s top two receivers. 

The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 19.8 points per game, scoring 35.0 on offense and giving up just 15.2 on defense.  Nick Foles showed last week that he can man the offense just fine, throwing four touchdown passes against the Giants on the road and leading the Eagles to 34 points. 

Doug Perderson is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Philadelphia.  Pederson is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win as the coach of the Eagles.  I don’t think the Raiders will enjoy the cold weather in Philadelphia Monday night, either.  I always like fading warm weather West Coast teams in these cold weather games.  It’s expected to be 26 degrees and windy Monday night.  Bet the Eagles Monday. 

15* Houston/Fresno State Hawai’i Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 49 

I think the fact that both Houston and Fresno State were heavy under teams during the regular season is giving us value to pull the trigger on the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl.  The Cougars went 2-9 to the under this season, while the Bulldogs went 3-9-1 to the under this year. 

But we’ve seen this story in bowl games before.  Offenses pull out new tricks with all of that extra time to prepare, and I think that will certainly be the case here.  Both head coaches in Jeff Tedford and Major Applewhite are great offensive minds who got their jobs because of the work they’ve done on the offensive side of the football. 

Fresno State made its run to a trip to the MWC title game after quarterback Marcus McMaryion took over the reigns after the non-conference portion of the schedule.  He went on to complete 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions while averaging 7.9 per attempt.  He also rushed for 250 yards and two scores on 5.1 per carry. 

The same thing happened for Houston once D’Eriq King took over at quarterback four the final four games of the season.  He has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 991 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.3 per attempt.  King also brings a big rushing element to the offense, rushing for 341 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He has 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards, including touchdowns of 61, 62 and 75 yards despite such limited action. 

Tedford is 17-5 OVER in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  We’re seeing an average of 61.6 points per game on average in this spot.  The OVER is 12-5-1 in Bulldogs last 18 non-conference games.  Perfect conditions inside Aloha Stadium in Hawai’i will also help aid this OVER.  Bet the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl Sunday.

15* Jags/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4.5 

I’ve backed the San Francisco 49ers with success in three consecutive weeks.  I’m not about to buck them now as they are once again undervalued here Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They are 3-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo, and they are clearly playing with a new level of excitement and intensity on both sides of the ball now. 

The 49ers won Garoppolos’ first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgunned the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Two weeks ago the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgunned the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  Those two performances showed that this is a much more dynamic offensive under Garoppolo. 

Last week the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field at will on the Tennessee Titans.  They only won that game 22-20, but it should have been a much bigger blowout.  They again had problems in the red zone and settled for a whopping six field goals.  Garoppolo had another monster game, completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions. 

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders under Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, the defense has been extremely impressive and not getting the respect they deserve.  The 49ers are only giving up 262.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last three contests.  They should be able to slow down a mediocre Jaguars offense that could be missing three key playmakers in Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars come in way overvalued due to its 45-7 home victory over Houston last week.  It was their third straight victory, all coming at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time since November.  They were last on the road on November 26th, getting upset 27-24 at Arizona as 6-point favorites.  They were actually outgunned by 125 yards by the Cardinals in that contest. 

Let’s just look at this game from a line value perspective.  San Francisco goes from being a 2.5-point home favorite against Tennessee to a 4.5-point home dog against Jacksonville.  Well, Jacksonville and Tennessee are two similar teams talent-wise, and yet their is a 7-point swing in this line.  So we are basically getting 7 points of value with the 49ers in my opinion this week. 

Jacksonville now has a two-game lead over Tennessee for first place in the AFC South.  Well, Tennessee is a touchdown home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams this week.  That game will go off at 1:00 EST and will be over by the time this game starts.  So the Jaguars are likely to clinch the AFC South title before this game starts.  I will certainly question their motivated this week if the Titans lose to the Rams like they’re supposed to.  Basically, I know for sure I’m going to get a big effort from the 49ers, but the Jaguars motivation is in question to say the least given the situation. 

Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. NFC West opponents.  Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5 

The Cleveland Browns will continue fighting over these final two weeks to try and avoid a winless season.  Now they have one of their best chances yet to get a win this week against the 4-10 Chicago Bears.  And they are getting 6.5 points to boot, which is too many I believe. 

The Browns rank last in turnover differential by a wide margin this season.  They are -25 in turnover differential.  They haven’t forced a turnover in four games.  I think they have been extremely unlucky this season in the turnover department. 

Fortunately, this week they’re up against a Bears defense that doesn’t force many turnovers.  The Bears have only forced 19 turnovers on the season.  And Chicago has a ton of injury issues right now on defense that will make life easier on Deshon Kizer and the Browns offense. 

This is a good matchup for the Browns on defense as well.  The strength of the Browns is their rushing defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 96.1 rushing yards per game.  The Browns are actually 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.3) allowed.  The Bears only average 177 passing yards per game, so stopping the rushing attack is the key to stopping them.  The Bears average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  Cleveland is equipped to slow down Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. 

My favorite trend in this game pertains to Chicago head coach John Fox.  Fox is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Bears.  Chicago is losing by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  That’s right, the Bears have never even won a game straight up in seven tries as a favorite under Fox. 

Chicago is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games versus poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game.  Plays on road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +3.5 

The Denver Broncos are probably the single-most underrated team in the entire NFL heading into the final two weeks of the season.  This team has a 5-9 record, and that’s what the betting public looks at, but this team has the numbers of a 9-5 team or better. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game on the season.  That is one of the better marks in the NFL.  Their offense has just been mediocre at best, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, and defense travels. 

The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 276.8.  They are second in third-down percentage (30.8%) allowed.  They defend the run well, they can stack the box because they have some of the best corners in the NFL who can play man-to-man. 

It’s clear that the Broncos have not quit, and their defense continues to play at a high level.  They have won their last two games with a 23-0 victory over the Jets and a 25-13 triumph over the Colts.  They held the Jets to just 100 total yards and the Colts to just 228 total yards in the two victories. 

But what really intrigues me is the performance of Brock Osweiler last week after he replaced the injured Trevor Siemian.  He led the Broncos to a season-high 462 total yards.  Osweiler finished with a 99.4 QBR out of 100, which is the single-best mark in the NFL in any one game this year.  He had 194 passing yards on 12 completions and two touchdowns, while also rushing for a score.  He is motivated to try and prove that he belongs as a started in the NFL over the final three weeks, and you could see that against the Colts last week. 

The Redskins are 6-8, and they have the numbers of a 6-8 team.  They are getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season.  They have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the football.  Their defense is giving up points in bunches and cannot be trusted.  The Redskins have allowed 30 or more points in six of their last nine games overall. 

The Redskins were fortunate to beat the Cardinals 20-15 last week.  They were outgunned 218 to 286 by the Cardinals, but Arizona was held to five field goals, and their red zone struggles were the difference.  The Redskins have been held to 65 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games.  They are going to be one-dimensional because Denver ranks 4th in the NFL against the run.  But the Broncos are 2nd against the pass, so they are as equipped as anyone to stop Kirk Cousins and Washington’s preferred pass attack. 

I like the fact that the Broncos come in on extra rest here too after playing the Colts last Thursday.  That will give them ample time to get ready for Washington, and getting a few extra days of rest is huge this late in the season when players are worn down.  It will make them the more energized team heading into this game Sunday. 

Washington is 61-94 ATS in its last 155 games as a favorite, including 42-69 ATS in its last 111 games as a home favorite.  The Redskins are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -8 

The Green Bay Packers have quit.  They just suffered their dream-crushing loss last week despite the return of Aaron Rodgers.  Now they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.  As a result, management has decided to put Rodgers back on injured reserve, signaling to the entire team that they don’t care about these last two games. 

The Packers also have a laundry list of injuries elsewhere outside of Rodgers.  There are currently 19 players either on injured reserve or questionable, including WR Devante Adams, who has 10 touchdowns receptions on the season.   

Adams would be a huge loss, and it would be smart of the Packers to rest him considering it’s the second severe concussion he has suffered this season.  They shouldn’t risk his long-term health.  The Vikings have a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes, and they’ll put him on Jordy Nelson.  Brett Hundley won’t have many options outside, and those limitations are a big reason why I like the Vikings this week. 

The Vikings will be highly motivated.  They need to keep winning to clinch a first-round bye.  If they were to lose and the Panthers were to win this week, they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers because of a head-to-head loss.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all about Minnesota’s motivation.  They would love to kick the Packers while they’re down after so many years of frustration against them in this division. 

"I told my team this: We're a good team, we're not a great team,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "I don't know if there's any great teams out there, but we're a good team. We don't have the luxury of looking past anybody, and that's really not our mentality as a football team (or) the kind of guys that we have.”

Hundley will face a huge challenge against a Vikings defense that ranks second in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Conversely, Case Keenum is in line for a big day.  He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (98.9) and second in completion percentage (67.9).  Green Bay is No. 30 in opponent passer rating (100.5) and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage (68.4).  The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 first downs last week.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or less are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games overall.  The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Vikings Saturday.

20* Army/San Diego State Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -6.5 

Despite being 10-2 this season, I think the San Diego State Aztecs are actually being undervalued because they didn’t win the Mountain West.  But they basically gave the game away to Boise State, and they suffered a hangover the next week against Fresno State, the two teams that played in the Mountain West Championship. 

Rocky Long has done a great job of refocusing the Aztecs and getting them to finish the season strong following those two losses.  This is a team that beat both Arizona State and Stanford earlier in the season, and then they finishes the year by going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS over their final four games with four straight wins all by 19 points or more. 

Now Rocky Long gets extra time to prepare for Army’s triple-option.  I always like fading triple-option teams when their opponent has extra time to prepare.  And Long is used to facing triple-option teams having to play Air Force every season.  And boy do his defenses know how to stop them.  In his time at San Diego State, Long’s teams are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in 15 games against triple-option teams. 

I really question Army’s motivation in this bowl game.  They just upset Navy for a second consecutive year with a late touchdown to win 14-13.  That game was their Super Bowl, and they won’t nearly be as motivated to face San Diego State as they were to face Navy. 

Army was a very fortunate team this season, going 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  I don’t think the Black Knights are nearly as good as their 9-3 record would suggest.  And they played a much softer schedule than that of San Diego State.  Seven of the Aztecs’ 10 wins came by double-digits, while only four of Army’s nine wins came by double-digits, and those were against Fordham, UTEP, Rice and Air Force. 

Rocky Long’s teams always get after it defensively, and this year has been no exception.  They only give up 18.4 points, 299 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They have been extremely good at stopping the run, allowing just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  That makes this an excellent matchup for their defense. 

San Diego State actually has one of the best offenses it has had in years this season.  The Aztecs average 30.4 points per game.  They are led by a ground attack that produces 253 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Army gives up 5.0 per carry, so this is also a good matchup for their offense.  Rashaad Penny, one of the most underrated players in college football, rushed for 2,027 yards and 19 touchdowns this season while averaging 7.4 per carry.  He’ll be primed for a big game in this one. 

The Aztecs have won their last two bowl games in blowout fashion with a 34-10 win over Houston as 4-point dogs in the Las Vegas Bowl last year, and a 42-7 win over Cincinnati as 2-point favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl in 2015.   

Plays on any team (San Diego State) - excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 or more yards per carry against a terrible rushing defense giving up 4.8 or more per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last two opponents by 150 or more yards per game are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Black Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MWC opponents.  Bet San Diego State Saturday.

20* UAB/Ohio Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on UAB +7.5 

The UAB Blazers have gone from not fielding a team the last two years to playing in their first bowl game in 13 seasons.  Financial reasons forced them to close the football program after the 2014 season.  But fundraising helped bring back the program in 2017, and the fan base has been behind them 100%. 

Head coach Bill Clark did not leave the program after the 2014 season.  He came back and led the Blazers to a school-record 8 wins.  They went 8-4 overall and finished 6-2 in Conference USA’s West Division.  Now they’ll be playing in their first bowl game since 2004, and it’s safe to say that no team will be more happy to be playing in a bowl this year than them. 

Clark is deserving of winning Coach of the Year honors, and many speculated that he would leave for greener pastures.  But Clark has shown his loyalty to the program by recently signing a five-year extension.  That will give the team a huge boost and eliminate any possible distractions. 

While UAB is happy to be here, I think Ohio is still suffering a hangover effect from losing its final two games of the season.  Those losses cost the Bobcats a chance to play for the MAC Championship.  They were upset 34-37 at Akron as 15.5-point dogs, and then watched Akron go on to get blown out by Toledo in the MAC Championship and by FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl.  The Bobcats also lost 24-31 at Buffalo in the finale. 

The Bobcats’ ground game is their strength, but that takes a big hit now that leading rusher A.J. Oullette (985 yards, 7 TD) is doubtful with a shoulder injury.  That will allow UAB to focus in more on stopping QB Nathan Rourke (877 yards, 21 TD).  And UAB only gives up 188 passing yards per game and 51.4% completions this season, so they are equipped to stop Rourke if he decided to air it out more. 

Head coach Frank Solich hasn’t been very good at pushing the right buttons with players leading up to bowl games.  He is 4-9 in his career in bowl games, including 2-6 at Ohio.  The Bobcats have lost three straight bowl games, and the opponents haven’t been very good in East Carolina, Appalachian State and Troy.  I don’t trust Solich’s ability to regroup this team after such a deflating finish to the season losing out on a chance at a MAC title. 

Plays against any team (Ohio) off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more in each, in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 80% of their games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet UAB in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

15* LA Tech/SMU Frisco Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LA Tech +5 

The LA Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams heading into bowl season.  That’s because they went just 6-6 this season, but they were better than that record suggests.  In fact, three of their losses this season came by a single points, and they went 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. 

But give head coach Skip Holtz and the Bulldogs credit for continuing to fight.  They needed to win each of their final two games to get into a bowl, and they did just that with a 42-21 win at UTEP as 16-point favorites, and a 20-6 home win over UTSA as 1-point favorites.  This team will clearly be happy to be playing in a ball after the way they fought for it down the stretch. 

"The competitive nature of this team and the will to fight, that's been consistent all throughout the season." Louisiana Tech senior running back Boston Scott said. "We're going to go out there and play hard -- we know what's at stake. We have to have that single-elimination mindset; it's win or end with a loss. I'm looking forward to seeing this team compete."

Holtz has certainly been a coach you want to back in these bowl games.  He is 3-0 in bowl games as the head coach at Louisiana Tech.  They beat Illinois 35-18 in in the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, topped Arkansas State 47-28 in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl, and then won a wild 48-45 game against Navy in the 2016 Armed Forces bowl. 

No doubt SMU players were happy to clinch a bowl berth back on October 27th with their 38-34 win over Tulsa.  But they struggled down the stretch to stay motivated, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games overall.  They were fortunate to beat Tulane 41-38 as 8-point favorites in their season finale at home as the Green Wave came up inches short of a game-winning TD in the closing seconds. 

Now I really question the motivation of this team.  Head coach Chad Morris has abandoned the team and left for the Arkansas job, and he took a handful of assistants with him.  New head coach Sonny Dykes hasn’t had time to install his preferred Air Raid offense, so he will just sit back and let some of the team’s remaining assistants call the game and let his new team play to their strengths.  That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and I just can’t imagine these SMU players being as focused as they normally would be coming into a game. 

It’s just hard to trust SMU in this game with the way they play defense.  They give up 35.5 points, 487 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the season.  Compare that to LA Tech, which allows 26.7 points, 395 yards per game and 5.8 per play, and it’s easy to see which team has the superior defense in this one.  I think that will be the difference in this game, plus the fact that the Bulldogs will be the more focused, motivated team. 

SMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  LA Tech is 8-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Bet Louisiana Tech Wednesday. 

20* Akron/FAU Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Akron +23.5 

For starters, this is the biggest spread in college football bowl history.  I’ll gladly take the underdog in this situation as this 23.5-point spread has gotten out of hand for a number of reasons.  The value is clearly with Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday. 

This is an Akron team that has been underrated for most of the season.  Nobody expected them to go to the MAC Championship, but that’s precisely what they did.  The key was their 37-34 win over Ohio as 15.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win as they outgunned Ohio by 48 yards. 

I like the fact that in the MAC Championship Game, they could have packed it in when they fell behind big early.  But they kept fighting and wound up covering as 20.5-point underdogs in a 28-45 loss to Toledo, which is a better team than Florida Atlantic.   

The Zips are very happy to be playing in a bowl game and will be motivated to try to pull the upset and finish their season with a winning record.  After all, this is only their third bowl game in the history of the program.  It’s only their second bowl appearance in the past 11 seasons.  They now get to head down to some warm weather in Florida and couldn’t be more excited to be here. 

I think Florida Atlantic comes in way overvalued after going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.    The betting public has caught on to this team and has driven this line all the way up to 23.5.  Their season is a success no matter what happens in this game, because they just won Conference USA with a 41-17 victory over North Texas.   

They won their conference, and there really isn’t anything more to accomplish.  And what is Florida Atlantic’s reward for winning a down Conference USA?  They get to play another home game here.  The betting public will look at that as a good thing, but I don’t believe it’s a good thing at all.  They would much rather travel somewhere to a better destination.  These players won’t be excited at all to stay home.  Their lack of motivation in this game will make it very difficult to cover this 23.5-point spread in spite of their big talent edge. 

Akron is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games this season.  Florida Atlantic is 25-42 ATS in its last 67 home games.  The Zips are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Akron is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. 

Plays against home favorites (Florida Atlantic) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a defense that gives up 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play after 7-plus games, in non-conference games are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Akron Tuesday. 

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 

The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night.  After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons.  I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night.  It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. 

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points.  That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total.  And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. 

None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another.  Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings.  Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. 

I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. 

Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game.  The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play.  They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. 

James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball.  The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games.  But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit.  They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. 

Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years.  The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons.  The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game.  But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return. 

Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point.  And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole.  They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well.  The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team. 

The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven.  They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game.  All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week.  Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense.  They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week. 

Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week.  Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win.  The Steelers are the definition of an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season.  They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year. 

This is an awful spot for the Patriots.  They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks.  That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in.  Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.  I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory. 

This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines. 

Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run.  The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.  Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year. 

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more.  Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2 

I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts.  I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans.  The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season.  They are 2-0 in this new season. 

The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more.  But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. 

Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs.  They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest.  Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win.  The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense.  This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued. 

The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated.  And boy, is this defense playing well.  The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately.  San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans. 

The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL.  They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team.  They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record.  They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good. 

Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season.  That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock.  Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over.  It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games. 

The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week.  Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going.  The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss.  Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions.  He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week.  The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games.  They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either. 

San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7 

You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season.  They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead.  There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done. 

It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime.  So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play.  But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens.  When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime. 

The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record.  They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team.  They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play.  We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season.  I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins. 

Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns.  They rank worse in total offense and total defense.  They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play.  I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week.  They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat. 

Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week.  It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air.  The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens.  Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game.  This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward. 

Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year.  The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns.  The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory. 

Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch.  Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting.  I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this.  The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. 

Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Browns Sunday. 

20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6 

The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback.  They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles.  So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games.  And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week. 

Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season.  He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs.  The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win. 

Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions.  The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won.  They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense.  Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense. 

The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread.  And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21. 

What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game.  The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. 

This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less.  That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday. 

Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bears Saturday. 

20* North Texas/Troy 2017 Bowl Season Opener on Troy -6.5 

The Troy Trojans are 10-2 this season.  Their only losses came to Boise State and South Alabama.  The Boise State loss was on the road and they were in it the entire way, and the South Alabama loss was a letdown spot following the biggest win in program history at LSU the previous week.  Both losses were understandable. 

This is a Troy team that is loaded with seniors.  They will be motivated to win their 11th game and end their careers on top with a win in the New Orleans Bowl.  And I certainly believe they are far and away the better team in this matchup with North Texas. 

This is a North Texas team that was extremely fortunate to post a 9-4 record this year.  The Mean Green went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Every time they took a step up in class, they were blown out, and this is a step up as well.  They lost by 22 at SMU, by 17 at Iowa, by 38 at Florida Atlantic and by 24 to FAU in the C-USA Championship.  They trailed that game 34-0 before getting some garbage time scores. 

Since that loss to South Alabama, Troy has gone 6-0 with five of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  They are playing well and will be the superior team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They give up just 3.0 yards per carry on defense, and they average 4.8 yards per carry on offense. 

North Texas hasn’t been able to run the ball since losing arguably their best player in running back Jeffery Wilson.  He was hurt in the Army game in their 11th game of the season.  Wilson has rushed for 1,215 yards and accounted for 16 total touchdowns.  The Mean Green managed just 81 rushing yards on 35 carries against Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game.  They are one-dimensional now, which will make the task much easier for Troy in this game. 

Another big difference in this game is on the defensive side of the ball.  Troy has one of the better defenses in the country, giving up just 17.5 points per game and 4.9 yards per play on the season.  North Texas is one of the worst defensive teams, giving up 33.8 points pre game and 5.9 yards per play.  That’s more than a 16-point difference. 

The Trojans have a coaching edge in this game.  Troy defensive coordinator Vic Koenning held the same title at North Carolina when North Texas head coach Seth Littrell was the offensive coordinator of the Tar Heels.  The Trojans will be prepared for what they’re going to face defensively Saturday. 

"He's a really good friend of mine. I respect what he's done," Brown said of Littrell. "Vic's got an understanding of who Seth is and what he's about.”

"I really like what those guys do on offense, so I've watched them quite a bit as the years have gone on," Brown said of North Texas. "I've got a good feel for what they're trying to do offensively. The Fine kid ... they recruited him hard here at Troy. He's doing a really good job."

Plays on neutral field favorites (Troy) after allowing 8 or more yards per passing attempt last game, with 8 offensive starters returning are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992.  North Texas is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Neal Brown is 13-3 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of Troy.  The Trojans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. at team with a winning record.  Bet Troy in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday. 

20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2 

The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt.  That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10.  They are right where they should be.  They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games.  They aren’t going to win this game, either. 

The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season.  They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game.  They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game.  Not great, but way better than the Colts. 

The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL.  They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense.  They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense. 

I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more.  They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime.  That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements.  This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week.  They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win.  It helped that they got Aqib Talib back.  After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh.  That’s key with this short week.  That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season.

The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos.  The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman.  No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year.  That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks.

Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games.  The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5

The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here.  They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC.  Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that.  They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins.  They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week.  But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge.  And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.

Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense.  He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos.  The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.

This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season.  Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week.  He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami.  What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.

The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5

Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point.  Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive.  It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points.  They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16.  Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans.  They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.

Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer.  And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams.  They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites.  I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.

While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not.  Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles.  The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.  I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.

The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football.  That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday.  Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense.  He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed.  Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict.  That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.  This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents.  Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh.  The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise.  They are much healthier now.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season.  After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating.

Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas.  Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.

This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs.  They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place.  That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.

Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road.  They completely imploded, committing four turnovers.  Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now.  I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.

It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field.  They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week.  They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders.  The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall.  Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.

The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3

I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs.  I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.

The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.  He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal.  This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer.  And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.

I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week.  But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense.  One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.

Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing.  He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers.  His accuracy was impressive.  The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone.  Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.

The Houston Texans are a mess right now.  They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year.  They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week.  There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.

First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer.  They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week.  TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.  

They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now.  Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season.  The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.

San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%.  Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy -2.5 

Navy had won 14 straight meetings with Army before finally losing to the Black Knights 21-17 last season. But that was an awful situation for the Midshipmen, to recently moved into the AAC.  They played for the AAC Championship against Temple last year and lost that game. 

Normally, Navy would have two weeks to get ready for Army.  But that wasn’t the case last year as the Midshipmen had to play on Championship Week, while Army got two weeks to prepare.  The Black Knights took advantage of that break and pulled off the upset. 

That won’t be the case this year as both teams have two weeks to prepare.   And you can bet Navy wasn’t happy about having to hear about losing to Army for 365 days.  Look for the Midshipmen to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to have a big brother mentality where they never want to lose to their little brother. 

Let’s look at this game from a line value perspective.  Navy has been favored by at least 6 points against Army in 14 consecutive meetings.  They have been a double-digit favorite nine times during this stretch.  Now they are only 2.5-point favorites this year, and I think the value is clearly with the Midshipmen because of it. 

Sure, Army is improved at 8-3 this season, but the Black Knights have played an extremely soft schedule. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season!  The best wins they have are against 6-6 teams.  And they’ve lost to Tulane and North Texas. 

Navy has played the much more difficult schedule, and they’ve been in every game they played.  They are 6-5 this season, but all five losses came by 10 points or less, and they came to five bowl teams with four of them on the road to Memphis, UCF, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston.  They played all five teams right down to the wire, including a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. 

Army outgained teams by 38 yards per game on the season while Navy outgained teams by 39 yards per game, and that’s important when you consider how much more difficult Navy’s schedule was.  This game will come down to which team stops the run. 

Navy gives up 4.6 yards per carry against teams that average 5.1 per carry, holding them to 0.5 yards per carry below their season averages.  Army gives up 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 4.3 per carry, actually giving up 0.5 per carry more than their opponents normally average.  It’s clear that the Midshipmen have the better run defense. 

Army is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. poor pass defenses that allow 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  Navy is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Black Knights are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 games following a bye week.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2

Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective.  This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons.  They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.

I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week.  The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings.  The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.

But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one.  And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week.  From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.

Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans.  The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card.  And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up.  They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers.  If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs.  So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.

It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel.  The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.

While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints.  S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans.  Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.

Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories.  The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.  Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Falcons Thursday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6 

Let’s look at this number from a value perspective.  Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season.  Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch.  Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now.  That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals. 

Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line.  The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season.  They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now. 

The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable.  The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal.  The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game.  They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted.  Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden.  Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable. 

Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks.  Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season. 

I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now.  They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home.  The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles.  This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do. 

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday.  He is going to be a game-time decision.  Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him.  Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it. 

The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning.  They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4.  So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye.  They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks.  They get three of their final four games at home.  So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games.  Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Monday. 

20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6 

What would this line have been before the season?  Seattle -7 is my guess.  That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season.  Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks. 

The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year.  They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games.  He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season. 

A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries.  They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games.  They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco.  These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on. 

I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses.  They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss.  I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now.  And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.

Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now.  And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points.  But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them.  And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home.  It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle.  This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.

Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons.  Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7 

The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse.  They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now. 

Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them.  This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown. 

Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals.  They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt.  They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort. 

Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks.  He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense.  He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season. 

Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs.  In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average.  His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home. 

The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season.  Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control.  The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here. 

And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London.  The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London.  Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now.  The value is clearly with Arizona.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3 

Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard.  It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more.  Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there.  The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass. 

The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm.  This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record.  Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer.  Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too.  And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago. 

While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears.  Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks.  The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team.  They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat. 

The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks.  These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now.  There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago. 

Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch.  They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5 

Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here.  They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value. 

The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs.  They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh.  The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee. 

The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team.  They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year.  Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis. 

Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game).  The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall. 

Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game.  He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right.  Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%.  And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week.  All three are questionable. 

Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit.  The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.   

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin +6 

Wisconsin just can’t get any love despite being unbeaten.  Sure, they have played a softer schedule than most Power 5 teams, but they’ve also taken care of business and have outgained all 12 opponents during their 12-0 start.  Nothing about their 12-0 record has been fluky as all 12 wins have come by 8 points or more, including a whopping 10 wins by 14 points or more. 

The oddsmakers just haven’t been able to catch up with Wisconsin down the stretch, either, because the public perception on them has been so poor.  All the Badgers have done is go 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games, covering the spread by a combined 45 points to absolutely demolish these spreads. 

Now the Badgers are getting nearly a touchdown against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  I really think the value is with the Badgers in a game they probably win outright.  You can bet head coach Paul Chryst is going to be playing the no respect card with this team.  I think they are ready to take that next step and make their way into the four-team playoff. 

Ohio State just gets love from the betting public because of the name on their jersey.  But the Buckeyes have been far from impressive in their ‘step up’ games.  They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Urban Meyer ‘mystique’ is no longer there when playing these bigger games. 

The Buckeyes lost at home to Oklahoma, needed a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Penn State at home, and trailed Michigan most of the way last week on the road.  Not to mention, they lost 24-55 at Iowa and were outgained by 116 yards.  That’s the same Iowa team that Wisconsin beat 38-14 the next week while outgaining the Hawkeyes by 316 yards. 

J.T. Barrett suffered a knee injury against Michigan last week that forced him to leave the game.  He then had surgery on his knee this week, but he is expected to play.  That’s not a quarterback I’d want to be backing with my money with the fact that he actually had surgery the week of a game.  Barrett won’t be anywhere near 100% for this game. 

It’s also a revenge game for Wisconsin after losing in overtime at home to Ohio State last year.  The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off three straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in four straight games over the last two seasons.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Troy/Arkansas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy PK 

This is a huge revenge game for the Troy Trojans.  Last year, they were expected to win the Sun Belt and only needed to beat Arkansas State to do so.  They fell flat on their faces and lost 3-35 at home despite being 10-point favorites. 

This is a Troy team that returned 14 starters from that team and a ton of experience.  They are the best team in the Sun Belt in my opinion, and this is a scary team when they are motivated.  Now they prove they are the best team with a win over Arkansas State here.   

We saw what they could do when they were motivated when they beat LSU outright on the road as 20.5-point underdogs earlier this year.  That’s an LSU team that has since gone on to go 5-1 with its only loss coming to Alabama in a game where they actually outgained the Crimson Tide. 

The Trojans are the fresher team as they had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Texas State 62-9 last week.  Meanwhile, Arkansas State has had to play three straight weeks and is coming off a draining 67-50 shootout win over Louisiana Monroe.  I like the freshness of Troy better and the motivation of Troy better in this game. 

Troy has played the tougher schedule this season, yet still has put up the better numbers.  The Trojans are averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense.  To compare, Arkansas State is at 6.2 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  With the Trojans having by far the superior defense, giving up 16.8 points per game this season compared to 24.2 for Arkansas State, that’s where this game is going to be decided. 

Troy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after outgaining its last two opponents by 125 or more total yards each.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Troy Saturday. 

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -2.5 

Quietly, the Georgia Southern Eagles are playing their best football of the season down the stretch.  They opened 0-9, but have since put together two huge efforts the past two weeks.  They beat South Alabama 52-0 as 6.5-point home dogs and LA Lafayette 34-24 as 4-point road dogs, covering the spread by a combined 72.5 points! 

It’s clear to me that Georgia Southern is being mis-priced in the market place right now as only 2.5-point favorites over Coastal Carolina this week.  Coastal Carolina is also 2-9 on the season, but this team is nowhere near as good as Georgia Southern right now.  They are getting too much respect for beating Idaho 13-7 last week, but that was an Idaho team without starting QB Matt Linehan, who means everything to the Vandals. 

Coastal Carolina is now without its top two quarterbacks in Tyler Keane and Dalton Demos, who are both doubtful to play Saturday.  That leaves 3rd stringer Kilton Anderson to take the snaps Saturday for the Chanticleers.  Anderson went just 11-of-23 for 100 yards against Idaho last week.  I see no way they can put up enough points to match Georgia Southern, which has scored a combined 86 points the past two weeks. 

The Chanticleers have zero home-field advantage and there certainly won’t be many fans who turn out to watch this 2-9 team.  Coastal Carolina is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season, scoring just 18.6 points per game and giving up 35.2 points per game, getting outscored by 16.6 points per game.  The have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games. 

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COASTAL CAROLINA) - after a game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday. 

20* Stanford/USC Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on USC -3 

The USC Trojans are doing it again.  After a slow start to the season just like last year, they have now reeled off four straight victories to close the season with three of those coming by double-digits.  They are now 10-2 and easily the best team in the Pac-12.  They prove that with a second victory over Stanford this season. 

What has been most impressive about this strong finish by the Trojans is that they didn’t have a bye week all year.  Their bye week came after their 12th game in Week 13 last week.  That gives them a massive advantage in rest and preparation heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game getting two full weeks to prepare for Stanford. 

Meanwhile, Stanford had to play a physical game Saturday night against Nortre Dame.  The Cardinal won’t hat game 38-20, but that was a completely misleading final.  The Fighting Irish actually outgained them 405 to 328 for the game, or by 77 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the key difference.  I think that misleading 38-20 final has Stanford overvalued coming into this game now. 

USC already beat Stanford 42-24 in their first meeting this season to end a 3-game losing streak in this series.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  USC racked up a whopping 623 total yards on this Stanford defense, limiting the Cardinal to just 342 total yards and outgaining them by 281 total yards.  Expect more of the same in the rematch. 

The Cardinal are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Simply put, the Cardinal aren’t nearly as good as their 9-3 record suggests.  They are actually getting outgained by 7 yards per game on the season.  USC is outgaining foes by 79 yards per game on the season and is legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  Bet USC Friday. 

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5 

The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others.  They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins. 

In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered.  They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season.  Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress. 

The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot.  The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.   

With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact.  With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact. 

The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints.  They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week.  They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week. 

Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league.  Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense.  The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas. 

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons.  Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington.  Bet the Redskins Thursday. 

15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.  It has allowed them to put together some strong performances here of late.  They currently sit at 5-5 and right in the thick of the AFC playoff race, so this is a huge game for them on Monday Night Football.

The Ravens have won two of their last three while outscoring their last three opponents a combined 83-23 in the process.  They have shut out Miami 40-0 and Green Bay 23-0 during this stretch behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens only allow 17.1 points per game, 306 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

The Texans have a different outlook.  They were looking great with Deshaun Watson running the show, but since he got hurt they have fallen off the map.  They are now 4-6 with essentially zero chance of making the playoffs.  And I'm not about to give them much credit for beating injury-ravaged Arizona last week at home because they were trailing in the 4th quarter of that game.

Tom Savage continues to prove that he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  This offense has been a shell of its former self without Watson.  And Houston's defense is no longer one of the better units in the NFL with all of the season-ending injuries on that side of the ball to the likes of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing and others.  The Texans give up 26.2 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.

Late-season byes are huge for NFL teams, and the Ravens got one in Week 10.  They returned from that bye to crush the Packers 23-0 on the road last week.  They limited the Packers to just 265 total yards while forcing five turnovers.  So now they are the fresher team in this matchup as the Texans haven't had their bye back in Week 7 and have gone 1-3 since.

Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a win by 21 points or more.  The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.  John Harbaugh always has his teams playing their best late in the season.  I look for Baltimore to continue playing well on MNF and to beat the hapless Texans by more than a touchdown.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The New Orleans Saints are simply overvalued right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have become public darlings.  They found themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Redskins last week, and they needed two late touchdowns to escape with a 34-31 victory.  Now they are only 2.5-point dogs on the road to the Rams this week, who are at least at their level.  I think the value is with the Rams as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week.  He guided the Redskins to 31 points and 456 total yards and played well enough to win.  But a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  The Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro coming into the game.  Then they lost three more starters throughout the game.  They lost leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and their rookie first-round pick in CB Marshon Lattimore.  Now all four players are either questionable or out this week.

Jared Goff and the Rams' high-octane attack should be able to exploit these injuries as well.  The Rams average 30.3 points and 375 yards per game as one of the league's top offenses.  And I like the way this Rams defense is playing, giving up just over 13 points per game in their last six games.  They are allowing just 14.7 PPG at home.

The Saints have mostly been beating up on cupcake opponents during their eight-game winning streak.  This Rams team will be the best opponent they have faced since getting blown out by the Patriots in Week 2.  The Saints also lost by double-digits to the Vikings in Week 1, the same Vikings team the Rams lost to last week.  So this will be a step up in class for New Orleans against a motivated Rams team looking to contend for a first-round bye, and getting the tiebreaker over the Saints here would go a long way to accomplishing that.

Plays on home favorites (LA Rams) - after having won three of their last four games against a hot opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Saints are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The home team has won four straight meetings and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their bye week.  They certainly went into their bye feeling rejuvenated after picking up their first win of the season, a 31-21 home victory over the New York Giants.  They certainly earned it and deserve a few more wins rather than being 1-9 on the season.

Remember, this team lost an NFL-record five straight games by 3 points or less earlier this year.  That's how close the 49ers are to being 6-4 rather than 1-9.  They should probably be somewhere in between.  And I think they are showing tremendous value this week as 7-point home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are only a shell of their former selves right now due to all their injuries.  CB Shaquill Griffin, CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor all all out.  They are so thin in the secondary that they had to re-sign former Seahawk Byron Maxwell, who shouldn't even be playing in the league.

The injuries go much deeper than that.  TE Jimmy Graham, OT Duane Brown, G Luke Joeckel, DE Dion Jordan, DT Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Michael Wilhoite and LB D.J. Alexander are all questionable.  So not only are the decimated in the secondary, but they are in trouble in the front seven as well with five linemen or linebackers questionable, including their defensive leader in Wagner.

This defense was torched for 34 points by the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.  That means the Seahawks are not only ridiculously banged up, but now they will be working on a short week and won't have as much time to recover.  Meanwhile, the 49ers have had 13 days off since their last game and come into this game as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

One of those close losses by the 49ers came earlier this season in Seattle, when they lost 9-12 as 13.5-point underdogs.  They rushed for 159 yards on the Seahawks in that game and should find some success against their front seven again this week.  The bye week will be great for C.J. Beathard as well, and he should be able to take advantage of this cast of misfits in Seattle's secondary.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (winning 25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West opponents.  The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are once again overvalued this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14

Since Mitch Trubisky became the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, they have not lost a game by more than 8 points.  That's a span of six games dating back to a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota.  They upset both Baltimore on the road and Carolina at home.  Then they only lost by 8 at New Orleans, by 7 to Green Bay and by 3 to Detroit.

Trubisky isn't making a ton of big plays, but the key is that he isn't making the same costly mistakes that Mike Glennon was before him.  The Bears have only committed seven turnovers in six games since he took over, inlcuidng just three in their last four games.  That has allowed them to rely on their defense and running game, which are the two strengths of this team.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Philadelphia Eagles.  I was on the Eagles last week as my 25* Sunday Night Game of the Year.  I cashed that easy with a 37-9 win over the Cowboys.  But that was a great spot for the Eagles coming off their bye, and with all of the injuries to the Cowboys.  Now, after beating their biggest rivals, the Eagles will be flat this week against the Bears.

Philadelphia does have a good run defense, but it hasn't been tested much this season because teams have been playing from behind.  Opposing teams only average 19 rush attempts against Philadelphia.  Because I expect the Eagles to come out flat, the Bears won't have to abandon the running game.  They will be able to stick to their game plan, and that should be to run the ball 30-plus times to try and shorten the game and keep it close, which is precisely what they've been doing since Trubisky took over.  As a result, they've had a chance to win each of their last six games.

Will Philadelphia eventually win this game? Most likely.  But asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much this week.  There's no question that the Eagles are overvalued right now due to their 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS record.  Now this is the biggest favorites they have been all season, and it's only the second time they've been double-digit favorites.

John Fox is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago. The Bears are only losing to these good teams by an average of 2.6 points per game on average.  Fox takes pride in his defenses being able to contain the top offenses like the Eagles.  The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  I think the Eagles get more of a fight than they bargained for this week.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* Washington State/Washington Apple Cup No-Brainer on Washington State +10.5

The roles are reversed this year for Washington and Washington State.  Last year, a spot in the four-team playoff was on the line for Washington.  They routed Washington State 45-17 thanks to four turnovers from the Cougars.  That game meant a lot for the Huskies.

Now, a spot in the Pac-12 Championship is on the line for Washington State.  A victory over the Huskies will allow the Cougars to win the Pac-12 North for the first time.  If Washington prevails, then Stanford will be the North Division's representative against South winner USC.  So Washington is only trying to play the role of spoiler having already been eliminated from North contention due to a head-to-head loss to Stanford.  The Huskies won't be nearly as motivated in the spoiler role after playing in the four-team playoff last year with a lot more at stake in the Apple Cup.

This is also a great spot for the Cougars because they will be coming off a bye, while the Huskies are coming off a physical 33-30 home win over Utah last week that probably took a lot out of them.  They easily should have lost that game, and that effort showed that they weren't all that motivated after losing to Stanford the previous week to essentially eliminate them from Pac-12 and national title contention.

Senior Luke Falk would love nothing more than to beat Washington in his final regular season game.  He has the Pac-12 records for career passing yardage (14,117) and passing touchdowns (118).  The Cougars have an elite offense, but what is underrated about this team is a defense that ranks 11th nationally by giving up just 303.8 yards per game.  The Cougars are 2nd in the country in tackles for losses (94).

Washington State is 16-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Washington State is 9-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Falk will be searching for his first career victory over the Huskies in his career, and I think he likely gets it Saturday given the great spot with the Cougars off a bye and the more motivated team.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +12

Duke opened 4-0 before losing six straight games.  But the Blue Devils showed a lot of heart last week in beating Georgia Tech 43-20.  It was their most impressive performance of the season.  They outgained a very good Yellow Jackets team by 141 yards, so the final score wasn't fluky at all.

Now the Blue Devils need just one more win to get bowl eligible, and they'd love to do it against their rivals Saturday.  I think Duke will be the more motivated team here because of this fact.  Wake Forest is already bowl eligible at 7-4 and has less to play for.

Plus, Wake Forest is coming off a huge 30-24 win over NC State at home.  That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for them as it is.  And that was a huge misleading final as the Demon Deacons were actually outgained by 168 yards by the Wolfpack.  They have actually been outgained in five of their last eight games, and I just don't think they are as good as their 7-4 record would indicate.  They should not be double-digit favorites against Duke.

I like this matchup for the Blue Devils as well.  They got their ground game going against Georgia Tech last week, rushing for a whopping 319 yards.  Wake Forest ranks 104th in the country against the run, giving up 200 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  

This Wake Forest defense is giving up 444 yards per game on the season, while Duke is giving up just 20.5 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 26 points and 370 yards per game, holding them to 5.5 points and 35 yards per game less than their season averages.  It's clear that the Blue Devils have by far the superior defense in this matchup.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this head-to-head series.  In fact, the road team has actually won five of the last six meetings.  The Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 visits to Wake Forest, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Give me the Blue Devils as double-digit underdogs here in a game they could easily win outright.  Take Duke Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are currently undervalued after losing four of their last six.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Nebraska after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

The Boilermakers were sitting at 4-6 last week, and Jeff Brohm called out his team, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  And boy did his team respond.  Purdue went on the road and beat Iowa 24-15 as 6-point underdogs.  I was on them last week and was very impressed with that effort as they outgained the Hawkeyes by 36 yards and limited them to just 258 total yards.

Purdue is better than its 5-6 record would indicate.  The Boilermakers have outgained seven of their 11 opponents this season with the only exceptions being Louisville, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, which was coming off its bye and trying to save its season.  The Boilermakers are outgaining teams by 26 yards per game on the season.

Brohm has this offense playing at a high level, but it's the work the Boilermakers have done on defense that has led to their turnaround this season.  They are only giving up 18.9 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 29 points per game and 5.8 per play.  They are holding opponents to 10.1 points per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages, which is the sign of an elite defense.

The Indiana Hoosiers are also 5-6, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their back-to-back wins over Illinois and Rutgers.  The Hoosiers don't have any quality wins outside of their road win at Virginia.  The other four wins came at home over Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern and Rutgers, and also that road win at Illinois.  They haven't beaten a team of Purdue's caliber yet.  Indiana has benefited from playing an easier schedule than Purdue.

Plays on home favorites (PURDUE) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992.

Indiana is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 off a home win by 17 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 7-35 ATS in thier last 42 after outgaining their previous opponents by 125 or more yards.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in Big Ten games this season.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings.  The Boilermakers want to avenge four straight losses to Indiana, including their 24-26 loss as 21.5-point road dogs last year.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Virginia +7.5

The Virginia Cavaliers will be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak to Virginia Tech in this head-to-head rivalry.  This is one of the best opportunities they have had to end the streak as I believe these two teams are on a similar level talent-wise.

Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job in Year 2 getting the Cavaliers to a bowl at 6-5.  They want more, and they clearly showed that last week when they led No. 2 Miami 28-14 in the second half before giving up 30 straight points to lose 44-28.  They went toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes, actually outgaining them 439 to 358 for the game.  They arguably should have won, and to put up 439 yards on that defense is quite a feat.

Virginia Tech has not looked good at all down the stretch, and it cannot be favored on the road by more than a touchdown here with the way it is playing right now.  The Hokies lost 10-28 at Miami, 22-28 at Georgia Tech, and needed a goal line stand to beat Putt 20-14 last week as 14-point favorites.  That is their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them covering 7.5 against highly motivated Virginia this week.

Pittsburgh threw for 311 yards against this Virginia Tech defense last week.  Kurt Benkert is having a very good year, and he lit up Miami's defense for 384 passing yards last week.  It's clear he will be able to find some success through the air against this overrated Virginia Tech defense that has allowed 399 yards per game in their last three contests.

This Virginia Tech offense is really struggling right now.  The Hokies have been held to less than 400 yards in five straight games against UNC, Duke, Miami, GA Tech and Pitt, not exactly the greatest slate of defenses.  They are averaging just 17.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in their last three.  For whatever reason, they continue try running the football despite the fact that they're not a good running team.  They average 44 rush attempts per game at 3.8 per carry on the season.

Despite losing 13 straight to the Hokies, the Cavaliers have actually come very close to beating them recently.  They were blown out at Virginia Tech last year, but the previous four meetings were decided by a total of 20 points.  Three were decided by 4 points or fewer.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3.5

Mike Riley's tenure at Nebraska is just about to be over.  He has gone just 19-18 in his three seasons, and the Huskers are guaranteed to have a rare losing season at 4-7 on the year.  They have lost three straight and five of their last seven, and their defense has continually been torched.

The Huskers have given up a whopping 47.0 points, 532.7 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play in their last three games.  They are getting worse, not better.  While their 44-56 loss at Penn State last week looks close, they actually trailed that game 56-24 with just over six minutes to play before remarkably scoring three touchdowns in the final six minutes.  I think that 'close' result is giving Nebraska more line respect than they deserve this week.

The Huskers have been outgained in five of their last six games all by 85 yards or more, and four times by 138 yards or more.  Their only win during this stretch came 25-24 at Purdue after their scored in the closing seconds to snatch victory form the jaws of defeat.  But that was a great spot for Nebraska as they were coming off their bye week, while the Boilermakers were coming off a tough 9-17 loss to Wisconsin.

I think Iowa is undervalued right now after losing back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Purdue.  It's clear to me that Iowa had a letdown in those two games after upsetting Ohio State 55-24 at home.  Now I fully expect them to be over that letdown and pissed off, looking to take out their frustration on their biggest rivals in Nebraska.  They'll have no problem kicking them while they're down here.

Iowa has given it to Nebraska the past two years, winning 28-20 in Lincoln as 2.5-point favorites in 2015, and 40-10 at home last year while outgaining the Huskers 408 to 217 for the game.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I think we see Iowa's offense get back to playing like they did against Ohio State against this soft Nebraska defense.  And this Iowa defense is still one of the better units in the country, holding opponents to 20.5 points, 363 yards per game and 5.1 per play on the season.    They are limiting foes to 9.1 points, 31 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages this year.

Nebraska is 0-6 ATS in home games this season.  They lost by 7 to Northwestern as 2-point dogs, by 42 to Ohio State as 24-point dogs, by 21 to Wisconsin as 12.5-point dogs and by 4 to Northern Illinois as 10.5-point favorites.  They needed a comeback to beat lowly Rutgers 27-17 as 11-point favorites, and they nearly lost to Arkansas State 43-36 as 14.5-point favorites.

Iowa is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Riley is 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Nebraska.  The Huskers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Kirk Ferentz is 17-5 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Plays against home underdogs (NEBRASKA) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +4

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are just 5-6 on the year, but all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  They have simply had bad luck in close games.

But the Bulls haven't let it affect them here down the stretch.  They have reeled off two straight victories to get to five wins and within one win of getting bowl eligible.  Now, on Senior Day Friday, the Bulls will be highly motivated for a win to get to a bowl game, and to win it for their seniors.  I love the spot for Buffalo.

Conversely, the spot couldn't be any worse for Ohio.  The Bobcats were upset 34-37 at Akron last week in a game that decided the MAC East champion.  Of course, Akron had to win this week to clinch the East, which is exactly what they did on Tuesday with a 24-14 victory over Kent State.  

Now Akron will be going to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit to face Toledo, while Ohio has nothing to play for at 8-3 and already bowl eligible.  I expect a 'hangover' effect from that loss with Ohio this week.  They won't be able to match Buffalo's intensity in this one.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's no surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  

Jackson really looked like himself two weeks ago, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.  Then last week the Bulls blew out Ball State 40-24 on the road behind 350 passing yards and four touchdowns from Jackson.  They outgained Ball State by 228 yards in that contest.  It's clear this team is much better with Jackson under center.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1992.

Ohio is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 when playing against a marginal losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams that allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Bulls.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5

The Washington Redskins can't be 7.5-point favorites against the division rival New York Giants.  They have never been good in the favorite role.  They have only been favored in one of their 10 games this season, and they nearly lost outright as 11-point favorites over the 49ers in a 26-24 home victory.  So they'll be favored for just the second time all season here.

The laundry list of injuries for the Redskins is too long to name.  They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, and all three of their running backs are hurt.  Rob Kelley was already out for the season, and then last week Chris Thompson (39 receptions, 510 yards, 294 rushing yards, 6 total TD) suffered a fractured fibula.  Samaje Perine had a big game, but he also suffered a finger injury that has him questionable this week.  They also lost their big free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor to a season-ending injury.  Star TE Jordan Reid has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week, but a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  They Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro, but then leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and rookie first-round pick CB Marshon Lattimore all left with injuries throughout the game.

Cousins took advantage, but their defense couldn't hold the lead as the Saints scored touchdowns on their final two possessions or regulation.  This defense has cluster injuries among the front seven, and it's a defense that has been torched in recent weeks.  The Redskins have allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games.  They have given up an average of 459.3 yards per game in their last three.

The Giants showed some heart last week in upsetting the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point home underdogs.  It was a great performance as the Chiefs were in an ideal spot coming off their bye week.  Now this team can relax and start playing more freely after proving their naysayers wrong.  And they will be looking forward to trying to wreck Washington's season for a second consecutive year.

Offensively, the Giants have gotten their ground game going to try and take some pressure off of Eli Manning.  They have done so successfully by rushing for at least 111 yards in five of their last six games overall.  Their defense still has the talent to be a very good unit moving forward after being one of the best units in the NFL last year.  They showed their teeth in limiting the Chiefs to just three field goals and holding them out of the end zone last week.

Last season, in Week 17, the Redskins just needed a win to get in the playoffs.  The Giants had nothing to play for as they were already in the playoffs.  The Giants went into Washington and won 19-10 as 9.5-point underdogs.  That win just continued the dominance of the Giants in this head-to-head series with the Redskins, which is another reason Washington cannot be favored by more than a touchdown here.

Indeed, the Giants are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  The Redskins have won three times in the last 10 meetings, but all three wins came by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Giants here.  You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the Redskins beat the Giants by more than a touchdown.  

The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  Washington is 40-69 ATS in its last 109 games as a home favorite.  New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +15

The Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from a bowl game.  They would love nothing more than to upset their biggest rivals in Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl Thursday to clinch that bowl berth.  This team continues to fight despite the tough circumstances they had coming into the season with the offseason distractions.

The Rebels haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 16 points.  They have gone 3-3 during this stretch with wins over Vanderbilt (57-35), Kentucky (37-34) and LA Lafayette (50-22).  Their three losses have come to Texas A&M (24-31), Arkansas (37-38) and LSU (24-40), so they have basically been competitive in every game.  Their only two losses by more than that 16-point margin both came on the road to Alabama and Auburn, the two best teams in the SEC.

There's no question Mississippi State is a very good team at 8-3 this season, but the Bulldogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  This is a team that only beat UMass 34-23 three weeks ago as 31.5-point favorites, and they were in a battle last week with Arkansas as 13.5-point favorites in a 28-21 victory.

I love big underdogs in these rivalry games, and that has particularly been the case in this particular series.  The underdog has won four of the last five meetings outright, including Mississippi State's 55-20 win at Ole Miss last year as 10-point dogs.  You can bet the Rebels want to return the favor here and clinch their bowl by beating their biggest rivals.

Ole Miss boasts and offense that will keep it in this game for four quarters.  The Rebels are averaging 38.2 points per game in their last six contests.  Mississippi State is 3-11 ATS off a road game over the past three seasons.  I anticipate this game being closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK

The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess since losing arguably the three best players on the roster in Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee.  Both Elliott and Lee are expected to be out against the Chargers this week once again, while Smith is a game-time decision.

The offense has really struggled without Elliott and Smith in a 7-27 loss to the Falcons and a 9-36 loss to the Eagles.  They have managed just 8.0 points per game and 229 yards per game in those two contests while committing six turnovers.  The play-action just doesn't work now because opposing defense don't have to respect Elliott and the running game like they normally do.  It's proving that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback.  Not having Smith has allowed the Falcons and Eagles to sack Prescott a combined 12 times.

The Cowboys have been much better defensively when Lee is on the field than when he isn't.  They have given up 32 points per game in the these past two games without him.  Coming into the Philadelphia games, Dallas was giving up a QB rating of 85 to opponents with Lee on the field, and a 108 rating with him off the field.  They were giving up 3.5 yards per carry with him on the field, and 5.5 yards per carry with him off the field.  He is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers.  And now fellow LB Anthony Hitchens, who was taking his place, suffered a groin injury against the Eagles last week and was forced to leave the game.  He is questionable to play this week.

The Chargers are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have turned the corner, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two losses both came on the road to the Patriots and Jaguars in game efforts by a combined 11 points, including an OT loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won.  The four wins have come by an average of 14.3 points per game.

The Chargers have an underrated defense that is giving up just 19.3 points per game this year.  They will be able to wreak havoc in the Cowboys' backfield all game thanks to the duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram harassing Dak Prescott for four quarters.  And Philip Rivers and the offense really got going last week, racking up 54 points and 429 yards against the Bills.  They should be able to move the ball and score points at will against this Lee-less Cowboys defense.

The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS vs. poor kickoff teams who allow 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -12.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles could have easily packed it in after their 3-7 start.  They were the most hard-luck team in the country in close games through the first 10 games.  Their first six losses all came by 7 points or less, and the only reason they lost to Central Michigan was due to five turnovers in their last loss, a 12-point defeat.

But last week the Eagles showed a lot of heart.  They went on the road and beat Miami Ohio 27-24 as underdogs.  That was a Miami team that needed a win to make a bowl game, and the Eagles looked like they were the team that wanted it more.  They were in control the entire game before Miami scored a TD in the final two minutes and had a failed onside attempt.

This is a veteran EMU team that returned 16 starters and is loaded with seniors.  That is important because this is Senior Night for them and their final game of the season.  I think these seniors, led by QB Brogan Roback, will be motivated to end their playing careers with a victory.  They will put it on Bowling Green at home Tuesday night.

Roback and company should score at will against the worst defense in the MAC.  Bowling Green gives up 38.4 points per game, 517 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  They are giving up 39.9 points, 499 yards per game and 6.7 per play in conference action alone.  They just gave up 66 points to Toledo last week.

Bowling Green is 0-8 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Eagles are 13-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the past two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Eagles.  Take Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

The fight the Atlanta Falcons showed last week against the Cowboys was impressive.  It was the type of season-saving win that I think bodes well for this team moving forward.  They dominated the Cowboys 27-7, limiting them to just 233 total yards and sacking Dak Prescott eight times.  Veteran Adrian Claiborne played like a man possessed with his six sacks.

And while the Falcons are just 5-4 this season, they have been nearly as good as they were last year from a statistical standpoint.  The Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 7th in defensive yards per play (5.0).  They are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.  It is also the best yards per play differential in the NFL, and it's worth noting the Eagles have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

While the Falcons are basically at full strength outside of Devonta Freeman (questionable), the Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Richard Sherman suffered a torn Achilles against the Cardinals last week and has been lost for the season.  Safety Earl Thomas has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  CB Shaquille Griffin (shoulder) and S Kam Chancellor (undisclosed) both left the Arizona game and are questionable.  So their secondary is extremely vulnerable, and that's bad news for the Seahawks with what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company are capable of doing through the air.

There are offensive line injuries as well with Luke Joeckel still out, and now tackle Duane Brown questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Cardinals.  Brown was traded to Seattle from the Houston Texans, so they cannot afford to lose him.  Not to mention, DE Frank Clark and DE Marcus Smith are both questionable, while DE Cliff Avril is out for the season, so they are short-handed up front on defense.

The Seahawks are just getting respect because they are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  But each win has an asterisk attached to it.  They actually trailed in the second half at home against the Colts before pulling away late.  They were fortunate to beat the Rams 16-10 despite getting outgained by 134 yards.  Their 24-7 win over the Giants is about par for the course for the Giants right now.  They need a score in the final seconds to beat the Texans 41-38 at home.  They lost 14-17 to the Redskins at home as 8-point favorites.  And they were outgained by the Cardinals last week in their 22-16 win over backup QB Drew Stanton and company.

Atlanta lit up Seattle for 28 first downs and 422 total yards in their 36-20 home win last year.  That win avenged their 24-26 loss at Seattle as 6.5-point dogs earlier in the season as the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes, and a pass interference wasn't called on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones that should have been in the closing seconds.  Matt Ryan threw for 323 yards in the playoff game and 310 in the regular season game, so he clearly isn't afraid of this Seattle defense.  The Falcons outgained the Seahawks 784 to 642 in those two meetings combined.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.  The Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles have quietly gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season to post the league's best record.  Yet, they don't get the kind of respect that other teams like the Patriots and Steelers do in the AFC.  Nobody just wants to believe in this team, and until they do they're going to continue showing value against the spread.

I think that's the case again this week as the Eagles are only 3-point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are coming off their bye, so they've had two full weeks to rest and get ready for their division rivals.  Playing an NFC East opponent that won the division last year will have kept the Eagles focused all bye week and not relaxing and being content with what they've done up to this point.

Carson Wentz is guiding an elite offense that is putting up 31.4 points, 377 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The defense is improving and getting healthier, giving up just 19.9 points per game, 316 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The secondary has gotten back a couple key pieces here over the past couple weeks and will be one of the most formidable units in the NFL moving forward.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The Ezekiel Elliott 6-game suspension has been upheld, and he was forced to miss last week's 27-7 loss to the Falcons.  The offense looked lost without him.  The Falcons didn't bite on play action like most teams would when Elliott is in the lineup.  Instead, they sacked Dak Prescott  eight times, including a franchise-record six from Adrian Claiborne.  They held the Cowboys to just 233 total yards.

A big reason Claiborne had such a big game was because he was going up against a backup left tackle in Chaz Green, who was eventually benched.  Green was starting in place of the injured Tyron Smith, who is questionable to return this week, and his value to this team cannot be overstated.  This offense just isn't going to be as effective without Elliott, who has been one of the top two running backs in the league the past two seasons and is worth more to this team than he gets credit for.

Defensively, the Cowboys have all kinds of issues right now.  They seem to go as Sean Lee goes.  When he's in the lineup, they are an average or better defense.  Without him, they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  He is nearly as important to their defense as Luke Kuechly is for the Panthers.  And now Lee is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons.  Not to mention, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Orlando Scandrick, LB Justin Durant and S Jeff Heath are all questionable.

With all of these injuries and suspensions, and with Jerry Jones causing a stir with the NFL, I just don't like the current state of the Cowboys right now.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are getting healthier with Zach Ertz expecting to return this week, and I think they are looking forward to this opportunity to kick the Cowboys while they're down.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

It's pretty simple with the Chargers.  Bet on them when they're an underdog, and bet against them when they're a favorite.  You would have made a lot of money on Chargers games doing just that over the past several season.  The Chargers cannot be laying 4.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Chargers lost a game in true Charger fashion last week, falling 17-20 in overtime on the road as 5-point underdogs.  They had the game all but sealed before fumbling in the final few minutes.  Then Philip Rivers threw one of his patented late-game interceptions in overtime to set the Jaguars up for the game-winning field goal.

I certainly do not like the state of mind of the Chargers right now.  They have come out of their bye week and promptly lost two straight to fall to 3-6 on the season.  That leaves them with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs.  And fans of this team won't be showing up to the game now as the Chargers actually have zero home-field advantage, which has been one of the most underrated advantages we have in fading the Chargers when at home.  Cuz they still get treated like a good home team from oddsmakers when there really is zero advantage from them, and more often than not they're getting booed.

The Bills sit at 5-4 on the season.  They have lost two in a row, but the outlook is still bright as they are currently the 6th seed in the AFC if the season were to end today.  I think head coach Sean McDermott made the right move to give the ball to Nathan Peterman at quarterback this week.  He looked great in the preseason and could prove to be a fifth-round steal.

Peterman replaced Tyrod Taylor with less than five minutes remaining in Sunday's 47-10 loss to the Saints.  Taylor had completed just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards, one INT and a career-low 33.6 passer rating despite the debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the return of TE Charles Clay.  Peterman, making his NFL debut, completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in two offensive possessions.  He led a high-octane offense at Pitt last season.

"I've been impressed with Nate and his maturity as a rookie in a very early point in his career," McDermott said. "He's certainly worked hard. When you look at Nate and what he was able to do through OTAs, through training camp, through preseason and then [Sunday], I thought he did some good things, albeit that was a small sample size in a regular-season game. That said, he has a lot of work do, just like we all do."
McDermott later added of Peterman, "He's ready. I wouldn't make this move if I didn't feel he was ready."

Let's be honest, the offense needs a spark, because the defense cannot continue carrying the load like it has up to this point.  Peterman still has the luxury of a great running game with LeSean McCoy and company.  And I have no doubt he will better utilize his weapons outside in Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Clay.  This offense has simply underperformed up to this point with Taylor at the helm.

It's worth noting that Philip Rivers has been in concussion protocol this week and his status is up in the air for the Chargers.  Starting tackle Joe Barksdale is out, while starting center Matt Slauson and starting guard Forrest Lamp both have season-ending injuries.  Rivers has been under duress all season, so it's no surprise he took a beating last week against the Jaguars.

Buffalo is 52-28 ATS in its last 80 off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS off two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by an average of 9.7 points per game in this spot.  The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight road losses.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

What do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some respect?  Until they do, I'll continue backing them as I did last week as only 1-point favorites over the Redskins in their 38-30 road win.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams this week.  This game could be an NFC Championship preview, and the Vikings want to make sure they get the tiebreaker with a win here if it comes down to it for home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Vikings are the real deal.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, so their record has not been fluky at all.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of an elite team.

Defensively, Mike Zimmer has one of the best stop units in the NFL.  The Vikings rank 5th in total defense (294.6 yards/game) and 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.7) allowed, which is the most important stat.  And the Rams haven't seen a defense this good all season.  The only other that would compare would be Seattle, and they lost at home to the Seahawks 10-16.  They also played the Jaguars and managed just 249 total yards against them.

The one aspect of the Vikings that gets overlook is just how good the offense is.  They rank 9th in the league in total offense (363.8 yards/game) and 8th in offensive yards per play (5.6).  Case Keenum has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.  It was the right move for Zimmer to announce he is sticking with Keenum because he has earned it, instead of throwing Teddy Bridgewater in there.

I have been a big Rams' backer this season and still really like this team, but I think the betting public has not caught on to how good they are.  The value has been sapped from the Rams this week because they should be catching more than a field goal here on the road, instead they are only 2.5-point dogs.  That places the value squarely with the home favorite Vikings.

The Rams are 7-2 but they are feasting on some bad teams.  Their seven wins have come against the Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants and Texans.  Five of those teams are terrible, while the wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars come with asterisks.  The Rams were coming off a Thursday game while the Cowboys were coming off a Monday game, so they had a huge advantage in rest and preparation.  And they were outgained by 140 yards by the Jagauars and were aided by two non-offensive touchdowns.

Minnesota has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 28-58-1 ATS in their last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Vikings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on LSU -15.5

I called for the LSU Tigers to be a great team to back as soon as they lost to Troy.  My prediction has certainly come through as they have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games since.  I've backed them in three of those games and am mad I passed up the other two games.  I won't make that mistake this week.  I'll lay the wood on LSU as 15.5-point road favorites over the hapless Tennessee Vols.

The turnaround started with a 17-16 win at Florida.  They then won 27-23 at home over Auburn as 6-point dogs, and that win looks better and better each week.  They won 40-24 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers gave Alabama a fight and actually outgained them, but lost 10-24 while covering the 21-point spread.  Then they won 33-10 over Arkansas as 19-point favorites, impressively avoiding a letdown off the Alabama game.  

LSU still has a shot to win 10 games this season, which would be a nice accomplishment in Ed Orgeron's first season, so I expect them to stay determined and focused this week and through their bowl game.  They will feel zero shame in putting it on Tennessee this week and kicking the Vols while they're down.  And, boy are the Vols down.

Tennessee has gone 1-5 in its last six games overall.  The only win came out of conference against Southern Miss at home, and the Vols were fortunate to win that game because they only managed 210 total yards and were outgained by 69 yards by the Golden Eagles.  They have lost three times by 33-plus points during this stretch, including their 17-50 loss at Missouri last week that was the last straw for head coach Butch Jones.

Jones has now been fired as the Vols sit at 4-6 on the season and unlikely to even make a bowl game, mainly because they aren't going to pull off this upset against LSU.  That leaves the job to Brady Hoke.  Tennessee is already losing commits in the wake of the Jones firing, and the young players on this team who were expecting Jones to be their coach for their careers here are certainly questioning their decisions.  I just don't like the state of this program at all right now, and it's time to keep fading away.

Tennessee is managing just 13.2 points and 279.2 yards per game and giving up 34.3 points and 452.5 yards per game in conference play.  The Vols have been gashed defensively against the run, giving up 433 rushing yards to Missouri last week and 257 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry on the season.  That makes this a great matchup for LSU, which rushes for 209 yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.

Tennessee is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  LSU is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Knoxville.

Plays against home underdogs (TENNESSEE) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +9

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off back-to-back games against the two best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Wisconsin.  They used a lot both mentally and physically in those two games, and I just don't think they will have much left in the tank for Purdue this week.

It was clear Iowa found lightning in a bottle against Ohio State.  That performance was the aberration and the outlier.  Iowa came back last week and managed just 66 total yards against Wisconsin.  Yes, they scored 14 points, but both were defensive touchdowns.  They lost 14-38 as their defense was manhandled by Wisconsin's offensive line.  Going up against a big, bruising team like Wisconsin will take its toll on an opponent.

I think Purdue comes into this game undervalued after losing four of its last five.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Northwestern after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

But sitting at 4-6, and with a very winnable home game against Indiana on deck, the Purdue Boilermakers will be 'all in' for their final two games to try and make a bowl game.  After Saturday's loss to Northwestern, Jeff Brohm challenged his players, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  Monday, he was asked if any players had done so.

"Not as far as I know," Brohm said. "I think everybody will respond. Any time you lose, it's tough. ... but it's a big learning experience. We definitely have had plenty of those.  This is an important week for us. If you don't come ready to play (vs. Iowa), it could be a very big challenge."

Purdue's been more conservative early in games recently, Brohm said, trying to establish a running game. But those days might be over, with Brohm saying Purdue would likely be more aggressive early at Iowa.

"We have to come out on the attack," he said. "If we do some out on the short end, I don't want it to be because we didn't throw enough punches."

Part of that attack may be using receiver Jared Parks some at quarterback.  He is the team's No. 2 quarterback behind Elijiah Sindelar, who didn't practice Tuesday to rest from getting 60 pass attempts and taking numerous hits, while Sparks took the first-team reps.

“They just wanted me to get some more reps,” said Sparks, who was wearing a gold No. 12 jersey to identify the quarterbacks. “They decided to sit Elijah out today to give him some rest. He’ll be back this week.”

Sparks had a career day against Northwestern, catching 11 balls for 130 yards.  Just having him at quarterback with his athletic ability for a few plays would be an added dimension to the offense.  I really think Brohm is going to pull out all the stops this week, which should include a few trick plays that Iowa hasn't seen yet.

Last year, Purdue scored 35 points and amassed 504 total yards on Iowa's defense.  And this offense is much better than last year under the guidance of Brohm, who has already turned Purdue into a respectable football program.  And the defense has made major strides this year, giving up just 19.3 points per game against teams who average 29.6 points per game, holding opponents to 10.3 points per game below their season average.

While Purdue is outgaining teams by 24 yards per game on the season and only getting outgained by 2 yards per game against conference opponents, Iowa is getting outgained by 38 yards per game on the season and by 82 yards per game in conference play.  It's pretty clear to me that Purdue is the better of these two teams when you look at the numbers, and we're getting 9 points with the Boilermakers.  It's a great spot for Purdue fighting for a bowl, too, while it's an awful spot for Iowa coming off those two heavyweight matchups.

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the past three seasons.  The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games off a loss.  Purdue is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The Boilermakers are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Purdue Saturday.

15* UCF/Temple AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Temple +14

I backed the UCF Knights regularly early in the season.  They did not disappoint as they opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS, consistently covering the spread by big margins.  But then the betting public caught on and the oddsmakers had to really over-adjust, and as a result we've seen the Knights fail to cover the spread in their last two games.

After beating Austin Peay 73-33 with no line, UCF came back and only beat SMU 31-24 as 14.5-point road favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week, they only beat a terrible UConn team 49-24 as 38-point favorites.  UConn was playing with a backup quarterback for the first time this season in that game as well.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay two touchdowns against an vastly improved Temple team from the start of the season.

Indeed, the Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oddsmakers have consistently missed the mark on them down the stretch.  They only lost 13-20 to Houston as 11.5-point dogs, won 34-10 at ECU as 3.5-point favorites, suffered a fluky loss at 8-2 Army 28-31 as 7-point dogs in overtime, beat Navy 34-26 as 6-point dogs and topped Cincinnati 35-24 as 2.5-point road favorites last week.  Their only ATS loss came to UConn 24-28, but that was a very misleading final as they outgained the Huskies by 225 yards and clearly should have won.

In fact, the Owls have now outgained five straight opponents by a combined 633 total yards, or by an average of 126.6 yards per game.  That's why I think we can ignore Temple's early season struggles because this is a completely different team now.  This is a team capable of hanging with and upsetting UCF thanks to an average that has come to life, averaging 31 points and 464.8 yards per game in their last five games.  

The catalyst has been QB Frank Nutile, who replaced Logan Marchi three games ago.  Nutile has completed 62 of 91 (68.1%) of his passes for 803 yards and a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his past three games.  The Owls have also been much improved defensively in conference play, giving up just 25.2 points, 349.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in AAC action.

This is a clear lookahead spot for the UCF Knights.  They have a game on deck against South Florida next week that is going to decide who wins the AAC East division and moves on to face Memphis in the AAC Championship Game.  The winner of that game will also likely be the coveted Group of 5 selection for a big bowl game against a Power 5 opponent.  I can't help but think the Knights have to be thinking more about the USF game and not paying enough attention to Temple this week.

Temple is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Temple is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Owls are finishing strong for a second consecutive season.  Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the inflated 14 points for some added insurance.  Take Temple Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +19.5

The Miami Hurricanes are in an awful spot here.  This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on them and 'buy low' on the Virginia Cavaliers.  The stock couldn't be higher on Miami right now, while the stock couldn't be much lower on Virginia.  That's why I believe we are getting too many points here with the Cavaliers catching 19.5 points against the Hurricanes.

Miami is coming off its two biggest wins of the season.  The Hurricanes thumped Virginia Tech 28-10 at home to seal the ACC Coastal Division title.  Then they beat Notre Dame 41-8 last week to keep their national title hopes alive.  Now they have come out as the No. 3 ranked team in the playoff rankings.

With that ranking comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And it also comes with national media attention that can take the focus away from 18, 19 and 20-year old kids.  Malik Rosier has been on ESPN doing interviews, as has head coach Mark Richt, and it's just a major distraction that they don't need.  It's safe to say I think this sets up perfectly for them to come out flat against Virginia this week.

Conversely, Virginia has lost three of its last four coming in.  A couple of them were bad looks with a 10-41 loss to Boston College and a 14-31 loss to Pitt.  But they rebounded and clinched bowl eligibility with a 40-36 win over a very good Georgia Tech team.  It's was a huge accomplishment for Bronco Mendenhall to get his team to a bowl game in his second season.  And as expected, they fell flat last week with a 21-38 road loss at Louisville.

Now, with a chance to knock off the No. 3 team in the country, the Cavaliers will be back to being 100% focused for this game.  We've already seen the Cavaliers pull off a huge upset on the road this season.  They went into Boise State and won 42-23 as 13.5-point dogs earlier this season.  That win looks even better now. Mendenhall will have his team ready to battle Miami for four quarters Saturday.

After back-to-back blowout wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the betting public is quick to forget how lucky the Hurricanes are to still be undefeated.  They won four straight games by 8 points or less against North Carolina, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Florida State.  They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with late scores in the closing seconds against both Georgia Tech and FSU.  

The Hurricanes have been extremely fortunate in the turnover department to aid these recent victories.  They have forced at least four turnovers in four consecutive games, and I don't expect that streak to continue this week.  They forced four turnovers against both Syracuse (27-19) and UNC (24-19) yet still had to fight tooth and nail to win both games.  Virginia has been good with taking care of the football, committing two or fewer turnovers in all but one game.  They have just 12 turnovers in 10 games this season.

I also like the fact that his is an early 12:00 EST kickoff.  Miami played a night game against Notre Dame last week, and it was a tremendously rowdy atmosphere.  The fans should still be rowdy, but it will be nothing like it was for that night game against the Fighting Irish.  The home-field advantage won't be nearly as strong for this one.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 47-17 (73.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against a home team (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1992.  

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Miami.  Mark Richt is 2-11 ATS in home games after playing two straight home games in all games he has coached.  The Hurricanes have been home for three weeks now getting nothing but pats on the back, especially all week leading up to this game.  I think they get a bigger fight than they bargained for from Mendenhall and company this weekend.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +37

Talk about the spot of all spots.  Auburn couldn't be in a worse sandwich spot then it is this week.  After upsetting No. 1 Georgia last week and knocking the Bulldogs clear down to No. 7 in the playoff rankings, Auburn now has an even bigger game on deck against current No. 1 Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl.  That game will be for all the marbles to win the SEC West and go to the conference championship game, while also keeping Auburn's playoff hopes alive.

It's safe to say that Auburn will not be up for this game at all as it steps out of conference to play Louisiana-Monroe.  The bigger concern will be keeping everyone healthy so that they will have all hands on deck against Alabama next week.  That means the starters are likely to get pulled early.  Winning and staying healthy is the priority, not winning by more than 37 points to cover this massive spread.

We saw Auburn in a similar spot earlier this season.  The Tigers were coming off a huge game against Clemson in their opener, and they proceeded to lay an absolute egg against Mercer at home the next week.  The Tigers only won that game 24-10 as 40-point favorites.  I think that result alone against an FCS opponent lets you know that Louisiana-Monroe is more than capable of staying within 37 points of Auburn this week.

And Louisiana-Monroe is much better than Mercer.  I have been impressed with the Warhawks this season.  They sit at 4-6 on the year but haven't been blown out yet.  In fact, their largest defeat has come by 11 points this season.  They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 27.5-point dogs earlier this season to show what they are capable of.

Plus, Louisiana-Monroe gets two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn after last playing on November 4th and having their bye last week.  We last saw them come through with one of their best performances of the season, a 52-45 home win as 8-point dogs against Appalachian State.  That's a very good App State team and their only loss in Sun Belt play thus far this season.  And Appalachian State only lost 10-31 at Georgia earlier this season.

The Warhawks boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 37.0 points, 476 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that only give up 29.5 points, 407 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  It's a balanced attack that averages 194 rushing yards and 281 passing yards per game.  The Warhawks certainly have the offense to score on this Auburn defense and keep them within the number.

Plays against any team (AUBURN) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games. 

Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 or more points.  College football underdogs of 30 or more points this season alone are 57-23 ATS.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.