|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-07-13||Southern Mississippi +28 v. Nebraska||13-56||Loss||-105||50 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Southern Miss +28
The books have missed their mark badly on this game Saturday. I look for this contest to come right down to the wire, just as Nebraska's opener against Wyoming did. The Huskers only beat Wyoming 37-34 in their opener and they are one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.
Nebraska will have a solid offense this year behind Taylor Martinez, but the defense is in shambles. Nebraska gave up 70 points to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship and 45 points to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl for a combined 115 points allowed in its final two games. The Huskers now part ways with each of their top five tacklers, and eight of their top ten tacklers overall from last year.
That inexperience and lack of talent showed in their 37-34 win over Wyoming last weekend. In fact, the Huskers allowed a ridiculous 602 total yards to the Cowboys last week and were outgained by 72 total yards for the game. Brett Smith threw for 383 yards and four touchdowns, and the Cowboys rushed for 219 yards while averaging 7.3 yards per carry.
Off an 0-12 season, Southern Miss comes into 2013 way underrated. This is a team that has a lot more talent than it gets credit for. They returned 13 starters this year, including nine on defense. This is a team that lost five games last year by 10 points or less and was much better than its record would indicate.
The Golden Eagles actually outgained Texas State 400-207 last week and obviously should have won, but gave the game away by committing six turnovers on a 15-22 defeat. Because of that loss, this line has been set much higher than it should be. Southern Miss lost four fumbles and won't be nearly as careless with the football this week against Nebraska. QB Allen Bridgford threw for 377 yards and a touchdown in the loss, and he's in line for a huge game against this Nebraska defense.
Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This defense is much improved, and the offense will put up points at will against this soft Nebraska defense. Don't be surprised if this one goes right down to the wire. Take Southern Miss Saturday.
|09-07-13||Duke v. Memphis +4.5||28-14||Loss||-110||49 h 42 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Memphis +4.5
Justin Fuente actually did a very good job of getting Memphis to four wins last year in his first season on the job. It was their most wins since 2008. After a 1-8 start, the Tigers would reel off three straight blowout victories over Tulane (37-23), UAB (46-9) and Southern Miss (42-24) to give them a ton of confidence heading into 2013. Now, they have had all offseason to prepare for Duke knowing that this would be their season opener in Week 2.
I really like this team considering it returns 16 starters and 46 lettermen. Eight starters return on offense, including quarterback Jacob Karam, who completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,895 yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions a year ago. Also back is leading rusher Brandon Hayes (576 yards, 6 TD), who made the final seven starts at running back last season and played very well down the stretch. The defense returns eight starters, including senior FS Lonnie Ballentine (66 tackles, 3 INT) and junior DE Martin Ifedi (46 tackles, 7.5 sacks).
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS)
|09-07-13||Idaho +28 v. Wyoming||10-42||Loss||-103||48 h 11 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Public Overreaction Play on Idaho +28
This line is clearly an overreaction from the final scores of the games that both of these teams played last week. The public is all over Wyoming after a 37-34 loss at Nebraska. It is quick to fade Idaho after a 6-40 loss at North Texas. I'll take these extra points that public perception has created for us and back Idaho for an easy cash Saturday.
Wyoming's 37-34 loss at Nebraska says more about how overrated the Huskers are than how good the Cowboys are. Idaho's 6-40 loss at North Texas was more about how improved the Mean Green are than how bad the Vandals will be this season. This 28-point spread has clearly been inflated due to public perception.
Wyoming is in for a letdown here after coming so close to beating a ranked team last week. I look for the Cowboys to come out flat, which will allow the Vandals to keep the game close in the first half. That will lead to an easy cover as the Cowboys won't have enough firepower to win by four touchdowns in the second half.
Idaho showed some good signs offensively even in that loss to North Texas. It managed 369 total yards in the loss, which would usually equal anywhere in the neighborhood of 20-30 points. However, three lost fumbles really hurt the Vandals and put them behind the eight ball. Freshman quarterback Chad Chalich impressed in his debut, completing 19 of 27 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown. The ground game was effective as well, rushing for 139 yards on 36 carries.
Remember, Wyoming was just a 4-8 team last season with two of those victories coming in overtime. Its four wins came by 3, 5, 7 and 14 points. That 3-point win was a 40-37 (OT) triumph at Idaho. The Vandals actually outplayed the Cowboys in that contest, outgaining them 509-455 for the game. Once again, they gave the game away by losing three fumbles, just as they did against North Texas. So, Idaho will be out for revenge from that loss, too.
The Cowboys are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games following a S.U. loss. Wyoming is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games. While the Cowboys have won three straight over Idaho, those three contests were decided by a combined 20 points. Roll with Idaho Saturday.
|09-07-13||Buffalo +27.5 v. Baylor||13-70||Loss||-110||48 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +27.5
The Buffalo Bulls were one of the most underrated teams in the country entering the 2013 season. I was on them last week as a 33.5-point underdog at Ohio State, and they covered with ease in a 20-40 loss. Just as they were undervalued last week, I believe they are once against lacking respect from oddsmakers as a 27.5-point dog at Baylor.
Jeff Quinn has led the Bulls to three progressively better seasons over the last three years with a 2-10 finish in 2010, a 3-9 mark in 2011, and a 4-8 campaign in 2012. Now, with 16 starters and 54 lettermen returning in 2013, this is clearly Quinn's best team yet. I believe Buffalo will be bowl eligible by season's end, and it will compete with a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team Saturday in Baylor.
The Bears are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 69-3 victory over Wofford last week. This is a Baylor team that only returned 12 starters this year, losing three starters along the offensive line, quarterback Nick Florence (4,309 yards, 33 TD) and leading receiver Terrance Williams (97 receptions, 1,832 yards, 12 TD). After playing a cupcake in Wofford, the Bears won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from this underrated Buffalo squad.
BUffalo's offense returns nine starters and really played pretty well in scoring 20 points against a very good Ohio State team. Joe Licata was efficient, completing 19 of 32 passes for 185 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards back in 2011, is back and healthy which is huge for this offense. Oliver managed 73 yards on the ground against Ohio State. Alex Neutz, who had 1,015 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns last year, finished with nine receptions for 98 yards against the Buckeyes.
Defensively, the Bulls have a ton of talent returning among their seven starters that are back. In fact, they return eight of their top 10 tacklers. Leading the way is LB Khalil Mack (94 tackles, 21 for loss), DE COlby Way (58 tackles, 7 sacks), CB Najja Johnson (43 tackles, 5 INT) and CB COrtney Lester (39 tackles, 4 INT). This is a team that won three of its final four games last season and heads into 2013 with a lot of confidence because of it. The Bulls will not be afraid of Baylor. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|09-07-13||Army v. Ball State -7.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||45 h 13 m||Show|
25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State -7.5
The Ball State Cardinals went 9-4 last season in head coach Pete Lembo
|09-07-13||Florida v. Miami (Florida) +3||Top||16-21||Win||100||44 h 12 m||Show|
20* Florida/Miami ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3
In terms of returning talent, the Hurricanes blow the Gators out of the water. Miami has 18 returning starters from a team that went 7-5 last season despite being banned from the postseason. This is clearly Golden
|09-06-13||Central Florida v. Florida International UNDER 53.5||38-0||Win||100||30 h 45 m||Show|
15* UCF/FIU CFB Friday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 53.5
I'm backing the UNDER in this contest between the UCF Knights and the Florida International Panthers this Friday. I just don't believe Florida International is going to be able to score after what we've seen in the opener for both teams.
Central Florida played a great game defensively in a 38-7 win over Akron. This was a Zips team that has a very underrated offense, and the Knights managed to hold them to just 7 points and 250 total yards. It would be hard seeing the Panthers putting up more than a touchdown in this one after their performance against Maryland.
Florida International was held to just 10 points and 171 total yards in its 10-43 loss to the Terrapins last weekend. This is an FIU offense that returns a mere four starters, and its one that replaced all five starters along the offensive line. Look for UCF defenders to be in the FIU backfield and disrupting things all game long.
Sure, UCF is going to get its points, but it won't be enough to surpass this 53-point total. These teams have squared off each of the last two years with UCF winning 33-20 for 53 combined points last season, and FIU winning 17-10 in 2011 in a game that only saw 27 combined points. I look for something in between in this one in the neighborhood of a 35-7 victory for UCF and 42 combined points.
UCF is 22-7 to the UNDER in its last 29 September games. The Knights are 26-11 to the UNDER In their last 37 non-conference games. FIU is 7-0 to the UNDER as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992. FIU is 11-1 UNDER in home games off a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. The Panthers are 7-0 UNDER in home games after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game since 1992. These last three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|09-05-13||Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos OVER 48||Top||27-49||Win||100||33 h 22 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Broncos 2013 NFL Season Opener on OVER 48
I look for an absolute shootout between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens in the 2013 NFL season opener. Both teams should pick up right where they left off last season offensively, which each should also take a step back defensively for a number of reasons.
The Broncos have only gotten more potent offensively this offseason. That
|09-05-13||Florida Atlantic +20.5 v. East Carolina||Top||13-31||Win||100||32 h 58 m||Show|
20* FAU/East Carolina CFB Thursday No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +20.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have clearly been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. After their cover as a 31-point underdog at Miami on Friday, the Owls are now 9-2 (82%) against the spread in their last 11 games overall. Carl Pelini
|09-02-13||Florida State -10 v. Pittsburgh||Top||41-13||Win||100||99 h 55 m||Show|
20* FSU/Pitt ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -10
The Seminoles were actually very close to playing for a national title en route to a 12-2 campaign in 2012. In their two losses to NC State and Florida, they actually led in the second half of both of those contests. Jimbo Fisher has done an excellent job in his first three seasons here, getting FSU to an ACC Title and likely in contention for a national title for years to come. He can simply recruit with the best head coaches in the country.
Florida State only returns 11 starters, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the FBS. Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston could be the next Johnny Manziel at quarterback. He completed 13 of 15 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game. He
|09-01-13||Ohio +21 v. Louisville||Top||7-49||Loss||-110||70 h 25 m||Show|
20* Ohio/Louisville ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Ohio +21
The Ohio Bobcats enter the 2013 season way undervalued. They quietly went 9-4 last year despite having huge injury problems down the stretch. They even had 10 starters out in a 6-28 closing loss to Kent State. Now healthy, and with 12 starters back, the Bobcats will be an improved team in 2013.
I love the offense with seven returning starters from a unit that put up 31.7 points and 445 total yards per game last year. Remember, this is the same Ohio team that went into Penn State and won 24-14 in its opener as a 6-point dog. QB Tyler Tettleton, who is already the school's career passing leader (6,274 yards), returns. Also back is running back Beu Blankenship, who rushed for 1,604 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Tettleton has his top target back in receiver Donte Foster (59 receptions, 659 yards, 8 TD) as well.
Louisville enters 2013 way overvalued due to its 11-2 record last season that concluded with a 33-23 victory in the Sugar Bowl against an overrated Florida team. I was even on the Cardinals at +14 in that contest, but I'm fading them to start 2013. Louisville was a very lucky team last year as it won won a whopping eight games by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or fewer. There's no question this is a quality team with 16 returning starters, but it is not 21 points better than Ohio at home.
The Bobcats have played a BCS team on the road each of the last five years, including the AP #2 and #3 teams at the time. While they are 0-5, they have only been outgained 373-332 and outscored 31-19 on average in those contests. Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Louisville is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 home games. Bet Ohio Sunday.
|08-31-13||Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5||6-38||Win||100||53 h 13 m||Show|
15* Boise State/Washington Bowl Rematch BAILOUT on Washington -3.5
Off three straight seven-win seasons, Steve Sarkisian and company are ready to take that next step forward in 2013. This will easily be his best team yet as 18 starters and 58 lettermen return from a year ago. Folks in Seattle have to be very optimistic about this season despite drawing a brutal schedule overall, including Boise State in the opener.
All of these returning starters will be highly motivated to avenge their 26-28 Las Vegas Bowl loss to the Broncos. The offense is loaded with 10 returning starters. Senior QB Keith Price threw for 2,726 yards with 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions last year. Leading rusher Bishop Sankey (1,439 yards, 16 TD) is back. All of Price
|08-31-13||LSU v. TCU +4.5||37-27||Loss||-110||52 h 13 m||Show|
15* LSU/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU +4.5
The TCU Horned Frogs had several things go wrong that contributed to to a poor first season (7-6) in the Big 12 last year. First, they were returning just nine starters last year and were an inexperienced team. Then, quarterback Casey Pachall got suspended and was out for the season after making just four starts. Despite their 4-5 record in the Big 12 last year, they still managed to outgain conference opponents by an average of 33.1 yards per game.
Now, with 16 returning starters, TCU has a great chance to get back to winning 10-plus games in 2013 like it has become accustomed to doing. Pachall will split time with Trevone Boykin, who gained valuable experience last year at quarterback. The defense returns nine starters from the best stop unit in the Big 12 a year ago. TCU only allowed 22.6 points and 324 total yards per game last season despite having just four returning starters. With nine back, this will be one of the best stop units in the country.
TCU has won nine of its last 13 against ranked opponents, and it is a solid 13-4 since 2005 against non-conference BCS schools. Gary Patterson is one of the most underrated head coaches in the entire country. He has past wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Boise State, Oregon State, Clemson, Stanford, BYU and Utah on his list of big victories in recent years.
I look for LSU to take a step back in 2013. That
|08-31-13||Alabama v. Virginia Tech +21.5||35-10||Loss||-110||49 h 43 m||Show|
15* Alabama/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +21.5
Off a down 7-6 season in 2012, the Virginia Tech Hokies enter the 2013 campaign undervalued. Remember, the Hokies had won at least 10 games for eight consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2011. You can
|08-31-13||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-107||47 h 45 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3
The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a season in which they would like to forget. They failed to win six games for the first time since 2000, finishing 4-8. However, this team was much better than its record would indicate, losing a ridiculous six games by 6 points or less. In fact, five of its eight losses came by 3 points or fewer. It's safe to say that these players will be highly motivated heading into 2013.
Iowa returns 13 starters from last year's squad. While it will be breaking in a new quarterback, it's impossible to get much worse play than what it received from James Vandernberg, who threw just seven touchdown passes last year. Mark Weisman (815 yards, 8 TD, 5.1/carry) is back to carry the load offensively. Also back are three starters along the offensive line, as well as leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley and TE CJ Fiedorowicz, who is one of the top tight ends in the country.
Northern Illinois is coming off a 12-2 season last year, which clearly has it overvalued. It has lost head coach Dave Doeren, who has bolted for NC State this offseason. That's a huge blow to the program as Doeren led the Huskies to back-to-back MAC Titles. New head coach Rod Carey will be working with only 12 returning starters, though talented QB Jordan Lynch is back. I look for the Huskies to take a huge step back defensively with only four starters back on that side of the ball. They lose seven of their top 10 tacklers, including Tyrone Clark (86 tackles, 10 for loss, 7 passes defended), Alan Baxter (60 tackles, 9.5 sacks), Rashaan Melvin (55 tackles, 18 passes defended) and Sean Progar (59 tackles, 8.5 sacks).
Iowa will have one of the most improved defenses in the country with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 22.9 points per game. To stop Lynch, a defense must have good linebackers who can pursue the quarterback and make tackles. The Hawkeyes have just that as each of their top three tacklers from last season are back in senior WLB Anthony Hitchens (124 tackles, 5.5 for loss), senior MLB James Morris (113 tackles, 9 for loss) and senior OLB Christian Kirksey (95 tackles, 2 INT).
Iowa is 8-0 all-time versus Northern Illinois with an average margin of victory of 27 points per game. The Hawkeyes have won 12 straight season openers. This play falls into a system that is 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in non-conference games. Take Iowa Saturday.
|08-31-13||Rice +27 v. Texas A&M||31-52||Win||100||44 h 14 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +27
The Rice Owls will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2013 after a 7-6 campaign a year ago. I believe they are the best team in Conference USA with 19 starters and 54 lettermen coming back. David Bailiff will have his best team yet, and one that is capable of giving Texas A&M a run for its money. This is a Rice team that has pulled off two upsets (Purdue, Kansas) against BCS opponents over the past two years.
The offense is loaded with nine starters back from a unit that put up 31.8 points and 427 total yards per game. Leading the way will be senior QB Taylor McHargue, who threw for 2,209 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions last year, while also rushing for 667 yards and 11 scores. The defense welcomes back a whopping 10 starters from a unit that will be much-improved after yielding 30.0 points per game last year. In fact, each of the top eight tacklers are back on the stop unit.
Texas A&M starting QB Johnny Manziel, starting CB Deshazor Everett, and starting FS Floyd Raven will all be suspended for the first half of Saturday
|08-31-13||Buffalo +35 v. Ohio State||Top||20-40||Win||100||43 h 14 m||Show|
25* College Football Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo +35
I fully expect the Buffalo Bulls to be one of the most improved teams in the country under fourth-year head coach, Jeff Quinn. They went just 4-8 last season, but only one of their eight losses came by more than 22 points. That 22-point setback came in their opener at then-No. 6 Georgia as a 38-point underdog. Just as they hung tough against the Bulldogs, they will do so in their opener against Ohio State in 2013.
That's especially likely considering that Buffalo returns 16 starters and 54 lettermen from last year's squad. This is clearly Quinn's best team in his four years here. The offense boasts nine returning starters, including senior RB Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,395 yards in 2011 before being held to 821 yards in 2012 while playing in only seven games due to injury. Also back is senior receiver Alex Neutz, who caught 65 balls for 1,015 yards and 11 touchdowns last year.
The defense held its own last season, allowing 28.5 points and 364 total yards per game. With seven starters back, including eight of the top 10 tacklers, this stop unit is going to be even better in 2013. Leading the way is two-time, first-team All-MAC LB Khalil Mack (94 tackles, 21 for loss), senior LB Lee Skinner (89 tackles, 8.5 for loss), second-team All-MAC DE Colby Way (58 tackles, 7 sacks) and second-team All-MAC CB Najja Johnson (43 tackles, 5 INT). This is one of the most underrated stop units in the country.
Ohio State enters 2013 as one of the most overrated teams in the FBS. It is getting way too much respect for its perfect 12-0 regular season last year. There was a ton of luck involved to get to those 12 wins. In fact, the Buckeyes won a ridiculous six games by 7 points or less, including two overtime triumphs. The offense will be solid with nine returning starters, but the defense is in a world of hurt with only four starters coming back. Ohio State loses eight of its top 12 tacklers. Plus, it will be without RB Carlos Hyde (suspension) for the opener, who rushed for 970 yards and 16 touchdowns last year. The Bulls will hang tough and get us an easy cover in this one. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|08-31-13||Purdue +10.5 v. Cincinnati||7-42||Loss||-106||43 h 14 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Purdue +10.5
The Purdue Boilermakers have new life heading into 2013 with a new head coach. Despite making a bowl game the past two seasons, Danny Hope has been fired. I really like the hiring of Darrell Hazell, who led Kent State to a school-record 11 wins last season. This guy is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.
There is still plenty of talent left in the cupboard for Hazell considering 13 starters and 48 lettermen return. While the offense only has five starters back, it does have the experienced Rob Henry starting at quarterback. The defense can carry the load early as eight starters and six of the top seven tacklers are back on this side of the ball. That includes junior SS Landon Feichter (80 tackles, 4 INT), senior LB Will Lucas (66 tackles, 6.5 for loss), sophomore CB Frankie Williams (45 tackles, 11 passes defended) and junior DE Ryan Russell (37 tackles, 8.5 for loss).
The Cincinnati Bearcats also suffer some huge losses offensively, so it
|08-30-13||Florida Atlantic +32 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||6-34||Win||100||46 h 8 m||Show|
20* FAU/Miami ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Florida Atlantic +32
Carl Pelini did a tremendous job in his first year at Florida Atlantic in 2012. This team was much more competitive than its 3-9 record would indicate. Seven of Florida Atlantic
|08-30-13||Western Michigan +28 v. Michigan State||13-26||Win||100||46 h 8 m||Show|
15* WMU/Michigan State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Michigan +28
The Spartans simply lack the explosiveness to cover such a big number. This is an offense that put up just 20.0 points per game last season. Now, Michigan State loses its most productive player in running back Le
|08-29-13||Ole Miss -3 v. Vanderbilt||Top||39-35||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
20* Ole Miss/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3
The Rebels are the most experienced team in the SEC with 19 returning starters from last year
|08-29-13||UNLV +14 v. Minnesota||23-51||Loss||-115||23 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday Night Line Mistake on UNLV +14
Sure, the Rebels have only won six games over the past three years, but there
|08-29-13||Akron +22.5 v. Central Florida||7-38||Loss||-106||23 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +22.5
Terry Bowden had very little to work in his first season at Akron last year as the Zips returned only 10 starters. This team was much better than its 1-11 record would indicate, only getting outscored by an average of 9.6 points per game on the year. Now, with 14 starters and 45 lettermen returning, I look for this team to be much-improved in 2013.
The offense welcomes back seven starters, including leading rusher Jawon Chisholm (953 yards, 5 TD). Every receiver returns other than Marquelo Powell, and Kyle Pohl is ready to step in at quarterback after completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 366 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions a year ago. The defense has seven starters and five of its top seven tacklers back.
Only two of Akron
|08-29-13||North Carolina +13 v. South Carolina||10-27||Loss||-115||22 h 7 m||Show|
15* UNC/South Carolina ESPN Season Opener on North Carolina +13
Larry Fedora did a tremendous job last season in keeping his team focused and getting the Tar Heels to eight wins despite being ineligible for the postseason. Now, eligible for postseason play, UNC is going to be very hungry heading into 2013. It returns 13 starters in all from a team that outscored opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game on average a year ago.
While the offense loses all-purpose back Giovani Bernard to the NFL, it still possesses one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Bryn Renner, who completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,356 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year. Renner is back to lead an offense that put up 40.6 points and 486 total yards per game last season.
UNC also possesses first-team All-ACC LT James Hurst, a senior who will be charged with handling South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney for most of the game. I believe the Tar Heels will be able to move the ball and score points against an overrated South Carolina defense in this one. While the Gamecocks bring back Clowney, the fact of the matter is that they lose defensive six starters, including each of their top four tacklers from a year ago. South Carolina will be breaking in three new linebackers, two new starters along the defensive line, and must replace FS DJ Swearinger, who was taken in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.
With their biggest game of the season on deck against SEC East rival Georgia, the Gamecocks could be overlooking North Carolina enough to fail to cover this double-digit spread. It
|02-03-13||Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers -175||Top||34-31||Loss||-175||264 h 2 m||Show|
20* Ravens/49ers Super Bowl XLVII No-Brainer on San Francisco Money Line -175
The 49ers have been the stronger team this season. Their point differential validates that considering they are outscoring opponents by 7.9 points per game on the season, while the Ravens are only outscoring opponents by 4.6 points per game on the year.
|01-20-13||Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. New England Patriots||Top||28-13||Win||100||147 h 46 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens +9.5
The Ravens have really come together as a team in the playoffs after a tough finish to the regular season. It all coincided with the return of Ray Lewis from injury. Lewis announced that he would be retiring after this season a few weeks back, and this team has completely rallied behind him because of it.
Baltimore went into Denver and came away with a 38-35 overtime victory as a 9.5-point underdog. It overcame two special teams touchdowns by Broncos
|01-20-13||San Francisco 49ers -197 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||28-24||Win||100||143 h 7 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Falcons NFC Championship ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Money Line -197
The 49ers were the most impressive team in the league in the divisional round. Colin Kaepernick had a coming out party in their 45-31 blowout victory over the Green Bay Packers. He threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 181 yards and two scores.
Kaepernick helped the 49ers set a franchise playoff record with 589 total yards of offense. That's saying something when you consider San Francisco has had some very potent offenses dating back to the Joe Montana/Steve Young days. This offense has an excellent chance to explode once again Sunday as it goes up against an Atlanta defense that gave up 491 total yards to Seattle last week.
The 49ers clearly have the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game and 297.8 total yards per game. Atlanta give up a ridiculous 372.9 yards per game defensively. It is actually getting outgained on the season, which is a sign that the Falcons are not nearly as good as their 14-3 record would indicate.
|01-13-13||Houston Texans +9.5 v. New England Patriots||28-41||Loss||-110||164 h 45 m||Show|
15* Texans/Patriots AFC Late-Afternoon BAILOUT on Houston +9.5
The fact of the matter is that these teams share identical records at 12-4 heading into the postseason. Houston righted the ship with a 19-13 home victory over Cincinnati in its playoff opener last week in game that was more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Houston outgained Cincinnati 420-198 for the game in arguably its most dominant performance of the season.
With their confidence and swagger back, the Texans will be much more prepared this time around to go into New England and put up a fight. Sure, the Patriots won the first meeting by 28, but the Texans will learn from that loss and it will help them heading into the rematch. Meanwhile, the Patriots could easily be overconfident in this one after such a lopsided win the first go-round.
A closer look at the numbers shows that the Texans are still one of the most dominant teams in the league. They rank 7th in the league in total offense at 374.2 yards per game, and 7th in total defense at 316.1 yards per game. They clearly have the better stop unit in this one as the Patriots rank just 25th in total defense at 373.6 yards per game. We all know that defense wins out in the playoffs.
The Texans were only an underdog twice all season. They opened as a 3.5-point dog in their first meeting at New England before it got bet up to 5.5. This line of 9.5 is clearly an overreaction from that first meeting, and the value is certainly with the road dog this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON)
|01-13-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -2||Top||28-30||Push||0||160 h 16 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Atlanta -2
First and foremost, starter Matt Ryan rarely loses at home. The Falcons
|01-12-13||Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||31-45||Loss||-125||165 h 10 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5
The Packers are finally getting healthy at the right time. Charles Woodson just returned last week, and they had all of their receivers healthy for the first time all year. Green Bay dominated Minnesota 24-10 in the first round in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate.
Green Bay will want revenge from its loss to the 49ers in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers really had a good game, making this 49ers
|01-12-13||Baltimore Ravens +9 v. Denver Broncos||Top||38-35||Win||100||236 h 46 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Broncos AFC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +9
The Ravens have new life now that they have their leader, Ray Lewis, back in action. He led the team in tackles with 13 in a 24-9 home victory over Indianapolis last weekend. This team really rallies around Lewis, and they want to send him out with a Super Bowl ring now that he has announced he will retire at season
|01-07-13||Alabama v. Notre Dame +10||Top||42-14||Loss||-108||124 h 14 m||Show|
20* Alabama/Notre Dame BCS Championship BEST BET on Notre Dame +10
The Fighting Irish have been getting disrespected all season. Many people don
|01-06-13||Arkansas State -3.5 v. Kent State||17-13||Win||100||101 h 44 m||Show|
15* Arkansas State/Kent State GoDaddy Bowl No-Brainer on Arkansas State -3.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt conference for a second straight year thanks to a finish that leaves them as one of the hottest teams in the country heading into their bowl game. They have gone 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games overall. All seven victories came by a touchdown or more.
Kent State comes in deflated following its loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. There
|01-06-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46||Top||24-14||Win||100||95 h 8 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Redskins NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46
The oddsmakers have inflated this total in this NFC wild-card game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Both offenses have been playing well of late, which is the biggest reason for this inflated total. However, each offense runs into a hot defense, and defenses reign supreme more times than not in the playoffs.
Seattle is allowing just 15.3 points/game this season, and it has given up 17 points or less in each of its last five contests. Washington has given up 21 or fewer points in three straight games while picking up three big wins in the process.
The Seahawks are scoring 21.1 points/game while allowing 18.7 points/game on the road this season. That's an average combined score of 39.8 points/game. Washington is scoring 25.7 points/game and allowing 22.1 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 47.8 points/game. Add 47.8 and 39.8 and divide by two and we get 43.8, which is closer to what this total should really be set at, so you can see where I'm getting the value at.
This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) to the UNDER since 1983. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams against the total (WASHINGTON) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
I look for both of these rookie quarterbacks to focus on taking care of the football and not making mistakes, which won't put their defenses in bad positions. This will lead to a low-scoring affair and an easy cash on the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|01-06-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3||24-14||Loss||-107||95 h 8 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Redskins NFC ATS ANNIHILATOR on Washington +3
The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league entering the playoffs. After a 3-6 start, it appeared that they would be just playing for pride the rest of the way. They weren
|01-05-13||Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||75 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild-Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -7.5
The Packers have been playing their best football at home this season. They are 7-1 at Lambeau Field this year with their only loss coming against the San Francisco 49ers in their opener. They have won seven straight home games since, and they are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game at Lambeau this season.
Green Bay had been dominant in this series before its Week 17 loss to Minnesota, which was a much more important game for the Vikings. It is still 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in its last six meetings with the Vikings. That includes a 23-14 home win earlier this season, and a 45-7 triumph at Lambeau last year. The Packers are outscoring the Vikings by an average of 13.7 points/game in their last six meetings.
While the Packers have struggled stopping Adrian Peterson, I believe a third try at him will help them improve against the run. They
|01-05-13||Pittsburgh v. Ole Miss -3||Top||17-38||Win||100||69 h 44 m||Show|
20* Pitt/Ole Miss Compass Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -3
The Ole Miss Rebels were one of the most improved teams in the country this season. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze did an excellent job with this program by returning it to relevance. They even had three losses all by 6 points or less to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and LSU, which are three of the better teams in the conference.
Ole Miss comes in with momentum after beating Mississippi State 41-24 in its finale just to become bowl eligible. It was their most dominant performance of the season as the Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 527-333 for the game. Now, they face a Pittsburgh team that doesn
|01-04-13||Texas A&M -3 v. Oklahoma||Top||41-13||Win||100||52 h 44 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -3
The Texas A&M Aggies were very close to winning the SEC West with a chance to play for the national title in Kevin Sumlin
|01-03-13||Kansas State v. Oregon -8||Top||17-35||Win||100||28 h 15 m||Show|
20* K-State/Oregon Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon -8
|01-02-13||Louisville +14 v. Florida||Top||33-23||Win||100||123 h 43 m||Show|
25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +14
The Florida Gators aren
|01-01-13||Wisconsin +7 v. Stanford||14-20||Win||100||95 h 13 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Stanford Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +7
The Badgers will at least have a familiar face guiding the program in in former head coach Barry Alvarez. With his credentials, he certainly demands respect from his players. He
|01-01-13||Michigan v. South Carolina -5||28-33||Push||0||91 h 13 m||Show|
15* Michigan/South Carolina Outback Bowl No-Brainer on South Carolina -5
The Gamecocks were just one loss away from playing for the SEC Championship and a shot at a national title. They beat SEC East champ Georgia 35-7, but followed that up with back-to-back road losses to LSU and Florida for their only setbacks of the season. They only lost 21-23 at LSU, and they gave up just 183 total yards to Florida in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Michigan already played one SEC team this season, and it was not pretty. It lost to Alabama 14-41 on a neutral field on September 1st in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. The Wolverines found themselves down 31-7 at halftime, and they rushed for just 69 yards on 2.4 per carry as a team.
|01-01-13||Northwestern v. Mississippi State +1.5||Top||34-20||Loss||-110||90 h 13 m||Show|
25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +1.5
This is the most talented team the Bulldogs have had in the Dan Mullen era. There
|12-31-12||Clemson v. LSU UNDER 59.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||75 h 16 m||Show|
25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Clemson/LSU UNDER 59.5
The UNDER in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl between Clemson and LSU represents my strongest college football total for the entire 2012-13 bowl season. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this number by more than two touchdowns.
LSU has one of the best defenses in the country, and it is more than capable of shutting down this Clemson offense Monday. The Tigers are only allowing 16.9 points/game this season while ranking 8th in the country in total defense at 296.2 yards/game.
While LSU has been dominant defensively, its has been sub-par on the other side of the ball. It is only scoring 15.5 points/game on the road this season while ranking 74th in the country in total offense at 387.2 yards/game.
Clemson played a defense in its season finale similar to the one that it will face in the Chick Fil A Bowl. It lost to South Carolina 17-27 for 44 combined points in a game that had a total set of 60.5. It was held to just 328 total yards in the loss. I look for a similar combined score in this contest against LSU.
Clemson is 8-0 to the UNDER in all dome games since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 34.9 points/game in this spot. LSU is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game since 1992. We're seeing an average combined score of 40.1 points/game in this situation. These two trends combine for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER over since 1992. Bet the UNDER in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Monday.
|12-31-12||Georgia Tech v. USC UNDER 64||21-7||Win||100||70 h 46 m||Show|
15* Georgia Tech/USC Sun Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 64
The books have set the bar too high in this Sun Bowl showdown between Georgia Tech and USC. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that I foresee neither team scoring more than 31 points.
USC faced some very good rushing teams this season as their opponents averaged 180 yards and 4.4/carry on the ground in 2012. The Trojans clearly have an above-average run D considering they held their opponents to 156 yards/game and 4.0/carry. That's huge considering Georgia Tech runs the triple-option and almost exclusive relies on the run.
USC had a solid offense this season under the guidance of quarterback Matt Barkley. However, Barkley will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, meaning that Max Wittek will get a second straight start in his place.
Things did not go well for Wittek in his first career start as he went just 14 of 23 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a 13-22 home loss to Notre Dame in USC's season finale.
Georgia Tech came up with arguably its best defensive performance of the season in the ACC Championship. It held Florida State to just 21 points and 328 total yards while forcing three turnovers in a 15-21 loss. I look for it to build off of that performance and to keep Wittek in company in check.
Georgia Tech is 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 December games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in the Sun Bowl Monday.
|12-30-12||Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins -3||18-28||Win||100||78 h 37 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Redskins NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -3
The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won six straight games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the process. After a 3-6 start, this team is simply on a mission to make the playoffs and win the NFC East. This is certainly a team that nobody wants to play right now, and one that won't be stopped Sunday.
Dallas had its momentum stopped with a 31-34 home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week in a game it really thought it had to win to make the playoffs. That was just its second loss in seven games with the other coming at home to the Redskins by a final of 31-38 on Thanksgiving Day.
Washington really dominated that first meeting with the Cowboys in a game that was much more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. This game was essentially over at halftime as the Redskins took a 28-3 lead into intermission. They kind of just coasted the rest of the way, allowing the Cowboys to make it respectable in garbage time with the outcome already decided.
The Redskins are 15-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Washington is 19-4 ATS versus poor rushing teams that average less than 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC East opponents.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall, 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 vs. NFC opponents, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 December games, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with the Cowboys. These six trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the home team. Roll with the Redskins Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Redskins to -3
|12-30-12||Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||34-37||Loss||-120||74 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3
The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last few months. They have gone 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall to make backers a ton of money at the pay window. Rarely will you get them as a favorite of 3 points or less, so this is certainly a generous line from oddsmakers.
Green Bay has been the better team on both sides of the ball this season. It is scoring 26.6 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in total offense at 356.4 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.9 points per game while ranking 10th in the league in total defense at 329.6 yards per game.
Despite being 9-6 on the season, the Vikings are actually getting outgained by 18.9 yards per game. This is one of the most overrated teams in the league, and one that isn't nearly as good as its record. Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-14 in the first meeting despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson.
There's no way the Vikings get another 200-yard day from AP as the Packers make the necessary adjustments to stop the run. And when the Packers do stop the run, the Vikings will be in a world of hurt considering they rank dead last in the NFL in passing offense at 168.3 yards per game.
This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Green Bay is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with Minnesota. All five wins have come by 4 points or more and by an average of 17.0 points per game. That includes a 23-14 home victory in their first meeting this season as the Packers outgained the Vikings 435-359.
The Packers are 10-1 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 26.4 points per game. Bet the Packers Sunday.
Recommendation: Buy the Packers to -3
|12-30-12||Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions||26-24||Loss||-100||70 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bears -3
The Bears are the only team with something to play for in this one. They are still fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC at 9-6 on the season. They would clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss. Considering the Vikings play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17, the Bears know that there
|12-29-12||TCU -2.5 v. Michigan State||16-17||Loss||-110||52 h 49 m||Show|
15* TCU/Michigan State Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl BAILOUT on TCU -2.5
The Horned Frogs have the better offense in this one. They put up 29.3 points per game this season while ranking 61st in the country in total offense at 397.0 yards per game. Michigan State is scoring just 20.2 points per game while ranking 87th in total offense at 370.3 yards per game.
The Spartans lost their three offensive stars from last season in Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin.
|12-29-12||Oregon State -3 v. Texas||27-31||Loss||-115||48 h 9 m||Show|
15* Oregon State/Texas Alamo Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That is evident by the fact that they are an impressive 8-4 against the spread in all games, making backers a lot of money at the pay window this year. Their only three losses came on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points, and at home against Oregon.
Texas is not playing well coming into this game having dropped two straight against TCU and Kansas State. It managed a combined 37 total points in the losses while committing seven turnovers. It continues to struggle at the quarterback position as head coach Mack Brown keeps going back and forth between David Ash and Case McCoy.
Oregon State is a sound football team on both sides of the ball. It is scoring 33.0 points per game while ranking 34th in the country in total offense at 442.7 yards per game. It is allowing just 19.7 points per game while ranking 33rd in the land in total defense at 353.7 yards per game.
The biggest strength on the Beavers
|12-29-12||West Virginia v. Syracuse +4||Top||14-38||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
20* WVU/Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Syracuse +4
The Syracuse Orange have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They gave away some games early, but really came on strong late. They won three straight games to close out the season with a blowout 45-26 home victory over Louisville, followed by impressive road wins at Missouri and Temple. Louisville won the Big East and will be playing in a BCS bowl.
A closer look at the numbers indicates that the Orange are one of the better teams in the country. They rank 21st in the land in total offense at 473.4 yards per game and a respectable 51st in total defense at 385.1 yards per game. They have a huge edge on defense considering West Virginia ranks just 110th in total yards allowed at 469.6.
Syracuse has a mental edge over former Big East rivalry West Virginia having won each of the last two meetings over the past two seasons. It won 19-14 on the road as a 13.5-point underdog in 2010, then came back with an even more impressive 49-23 home victory as a 14-point dog in 2011. Ryan Nassib threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the win, and he
|12-28-12||Rutgers v. Virginia Tech -2||Top||10-13||Win||100||48 h 8 m||Show|
20* Rutgers/VA Tech Russell Athletic Bowl No-Brainer on Virginia Tech -2
The Hokies simply underachieved this season after coming into the season with lofty expectations. They did manage to rebound down the stretch, winning their final two games against Boston College and Virginia to become bowl eligible. It would have been three in a row if not for a last-second loss to Florida State by a final of 22-28, which was a game that showed what this team is capable of.
Rutgers is deflated following two straight losses to close out the season. It played Louisville for all the marbles in its season finale on November 29th, but blew a double-digit lead to fall 17-20. That loss cost the Scarlet Knights a trip to the Sugar Bowl against Florida. These players will have hard time getting motivated to play in the Russell Athletic Bowl after letting such a big opportunity slip by.
|12-28-12||Ohio +7 v. Louisiana Monroe||45-14||Win||100||45 h 37 m||Show|
15* Ohio/ULM Independence Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7
Following three straight losses, there
|12-27-12||Baylor +3 v. UCLA Bruins||49-26||Win||100||29 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3
The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it
|12-27-12||Cincinnati v. Duke +8||Top||48-34||Loss||-110||25 h 8 m||Show|
20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8
The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn
|12-26-12||Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 57||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||68 h 7 m||Show|
20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57
I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.
Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.
Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.
While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.
Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State -11.5||Top||43-10||Loss||-101||21 h 52 m||Show|
20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5
The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.
They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they
|12-23-12||San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1||13-42||Win||100||73 h 48 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +1
The Seahawks have a ton to play for in this one. They would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season were to end today, and they are trying to fend off several 8-6 teams in their conference. They can also pull to within one-half game of the 49ers for the NFC West division lead with a victory heading into Week 17.
Seattle has been playing its best football in the second half of the season, especially over the last two weeks. It has won five of its last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits. That includes a 58-0 home victory over Arizona on December 9th, and a 50-17 triumph in Toronto against Buffalo last Sunday.
The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 straight up and 6-0 against the spread at home this season, yet they are an underdog in this one. They are scoring 30.2 points per game and allowing just 11.5 points per game at home this year. As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.7 points per game inside of CenturyLink Field in 2012.
This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home teams (SEATTLE)
|12-23-12||Chicago Bears -5 v. Arizona Cardinals||28-13||Win||100||68 h 26 m||Show|
15* Bears/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -5
The Chicago Bears are showing arguably their best value of the season Sunday as only a 5-point favorite at Arizona. The Bears are undervalued right now due to a stretch of poor play heading into this one, while the Cardinals are overvalued after a big win last week.
The Bears have lost five of their last six games overall, but all six of those contests came against playoff contenders. They played the Texans, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks and Vikings twice during this stretch. With so much still to play for, there's no question the they will be laying it all on the line Sunday.
Finally, Chicago gets a break in its schedule in Week 16 against the hapless Arizona Cardinals (5-9). This is the same Cardinals' team that had lost nine games in a row before a 38-10 home victory over the Detroit Lions last week. They don't have much reason to show up for this game with nothing other than pride to play for.
That win over the Lions was far from the blowout that it appeared on the scoreboard. Arizona only gained 196 total yards while giving up 312 total yards. It's really hard to score 38 points when only gaining 196 yards, but the Lions simply gift-wrapped the Cardinals most of their points by committing four turnovers.
That's important considering Arizona is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 18.9 points per game. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|12-23-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3||Top||13-10||Loss||-115||66 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Trailing the Bengals by one game for the 6th and final wild-card spot in the AFC, this is a must-win game for the Steelers. A loss and they would be eliminated from postseason contention. This team has been great in these situations while winning two Super Bowls under Ben Roethlisberger.
Pittsburgh simply owns this series with Cincinnati. It has won five straight meetings while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Dating back further, it has won 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers topped the Bengals 24-17 on the road in their first meeting of the season on October 21st. This game was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, while Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards in the win.
Pittsburgh is 46-23 ATS in its last 69 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game in this spot.
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC North foes, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Steelers. These four trends combine for a 24-1 (96%) system backing Pittsburgh. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|12-23-12||New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys -2.5||34-31||Loss||-110||65 h 25 m||Show|
15* Saints/Cowboys NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2.5
The Cowboys are playing their best football of the season right now when the games have mattered most. Looking dead to the water after a 3-5 start, Dallas has reeled off five wins in its last six games to get to 8-6 on the season. It is now tied with Washington and New York atop the NFC East division.
At 6-8 on the season, the New Orleans Saints do not have much to play for. Their only real motivation is to play for pride and for the role of spoiler. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have everything to play for with the division title or a wild-card berth at stake.
Dallas has the superior defense in this one by far. It ranks a respectable 14th in the league in total defense at 340.3 yards per game allowed. New Orleans is yielding 27.1 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 433.6 yards per game. The Cowboys will come up with more stops in this one, which will be the difference.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS)
|12-23-12||Minnesota Vikings v. Houston Texans -7.5||23-6||Loss||-110||65 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans -7.5
The Houston Texans have everything to play for in this one. With a win against the overrated Minnesota Vikings Sunday, the Texans will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means they are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Minnesota comes in way overvalued due to back-to-back wins over the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams. Both of those wins were gift-wrapped to the Vikings considering Chicago outgained them 438-248, while St. Louis outgained them 432-322. The Vikings won't get away with such sloppy defense against the Texans this time around.
Stopping Adrian Peterson is the key to stopping Minnesota. In addition to owning the AFC's best record, Houston (12-2) has the fifth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 93.2 yards per game and a league-low three rushing touchdowns. The Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense (168.1 yards/game), so this is a terrible match-up for them.
Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 17.5 points/game. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by 17.9 points/game. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|12-22-12||Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5||31-18||Loss||-110||48 h 28 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Lions NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit +4.5
This line is simply be an overreaction from what happened last week. Obviously, the Falcons blew out the defending Super Bowl champs, while the Lions were upset in blowout fashion by one of the worst teams in the league.
|12-22-12||Washington +6 v. Boise State||Top||26-28||Win||100||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State
|12-21-12||Ball State +7 v. Central Florida||Top||17-38||Loss||-100||212 h 20 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +7
The Ball State Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They won nine games with their only losses coming against current Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. They fell to both the Huskies and Golden Flashes by a combined 14 points, and both of those teams went on to play in the MAC title game. In fact, Northern Illinois will be playing in a BCS bowl.
Ball State features a dynamic offense, and it is certainly the superior team on this side of the ball. It is averaging 35.0 points per game while ranking 22nd in the country in total offense at 471.3 yards per game. It is averaging 214.3 yards on the ground and 257.1 through the air. UCF is 58th in total offense at 400.7 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Keith Wenning is expected to return after missing their season finale against Miami (Ohio) with a strained Achilles tendon. He is currently listed as probable, and he
|12-20-12||BYU -2.5 v. San Diego State||Top||23-6||Win||100||189 h 50 m||Show|
20* BYU/San Diego State Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on BYU -2.5
The BYU Cougars come in playing well having won three of their last four games overall. All three wins came by 24 or more points, including a 41-17 victory at Georgia Tech. Their lone loss during this stretch came on the road against an underrated San Jose State team by a final of 14-20.
San Diego State has a solid offense, but BYU has the antidote with one of the best defenses in the FBS. It is allowing just 14.7 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 266.3 yards per game.
The Cougars aren
|12-17-12||NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||10-14||Loss||-110||78 h 34 m||Show|
20* Jets/Titans ESPN Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York +2
While the Titans have already been eliminated from postseason contention, the Jets are still alive. They have an excellent chance to win their final three games against the Titans, Chargers and Bills, which would leave them with a 9-7 record. That could be good enough to get them a wild-card spot, so this team certainly still has something to play for.
New York has won two straight and three of its last four with its only loss coming to the Patriots during this stretch. It has two road wins over this span with a 27-13 victory at St. Louis on November 18th, and a 17-10 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. It has been playing great defensively of late, limiting its opponents to 291 or less yards in its last three wins. It even held the Cardinals to 137 total yards in a home victory on December 2nd.
The Jets are certainly the better defensive team in this one, and it
|12-16-12||Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 43||50-17||Loss||-110||49 h 10 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Bills NFL Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 43
This total has been inflated Sunday in the annual NFL game played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. I look for a very low-scoring game between the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon.
The biggest reason this total is inflated is due to the Seahawks scoring 58 points last week against Arizona. The Cardinals had given up early into that game, and the Seahawks kept pouring on the points. They won't be putting up a big number on this improved Bills' defense this week.
Buffalo has been playing tremendous on defense of late, limiting opponents to just 16.8 points/game in their last four contests. However, they have been poor offensively of late, scoring an average of only 19.5 points/game in their last four.
Seattle features one of the best defenses in the league. After shutting out the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points/game while ranking 3rd in the league in total defense at 301.2 yards/game allowed.
The Seahawks are really not a good offensive team, especially when you don't factor in that Arizona game last week. Seattle is averaging just 17.0 points/game on the road this season, and it ranks just 21st in the league in total offense at 341.2 yards/game.
Buffalo is 13-2 to the UNDER in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score in these games has been Buffalo 14.0 and its opponents 22.8 for a combined average of 36.8 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5||10-38||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5
The Lions have lost five straight, and they have to be extremely frustrated with all of their close losses this season. Off a 20-27 loss at Green Bay in which they blew a 14-3 lead early, the Lions may not even show up this week. It
|12-16-12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 53.5||Top||0-41||Loss||-115||46 h 2 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucs/Saints OVER 53.5
The OVER in this game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints Sunday represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012-13 NFL season. I look for both teams to score 27-plus points to easily push the final combined score OVER the posted total by game's end.
I look for a similar final to the 35-28 road victory by New Orleans in the first meeting between these teams on October 21st. Tampa Bay put up 513 total yards in the loss, including 411 passing. New Orleans wasn't far behind with 458 total yards in the win, including 377 passing. As you can see, these teams combined for 63 total points and 971 total yards.
These are clearly two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 29.2 points/game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 437.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is yielding 23.7 points/game and ranking 28th in total defense at 389.8 yards per game.
That bodes well for a high-scoring affair considering these are two of the best offenses in the league as well. New Orleans is scoring 26.8 points/game while ranking 3rd in total offense at 394.3 yards/game. Tampa Bay is putting up 27.2 points/game and ranking 13th in total offense at 356.8 yards/game.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 7-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.
The Bucs are 6-0 OVER after playing a home game this season. Tampa is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-16-12||Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2||36-22||Loss||-110||46 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Rams -2
The St. Louis Rams are playing their best football of the season right now. They should be a bigger favorite over the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, and I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Rams in a game I believe they'll run away with.
St. Louis has won three straight with two of those victories coming on the road. It won 31-17 at Arizona as a 1.5-point dog, 16-13 vs. San Francisco as a 7.5-point dog, and 15-12 at Buffalo as a 3-point dog. This is clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league.
Minnesota is getting way too much respect for its 21-14 victory over Chicago last week. The Bears essentially gave that game away as they found a way to lose despite outgaining the Vikings 438-248 for the game. Remember, this is the same Minnesota team that had lost four of its previous five games all by 9 points or more coming in.
Percy Harvin is done for the year, and the Vikings' passing game has really struggled because of it. They are averaging a woeful 124.3 passing yards/game in their last seven contests. They are having to rely much too heavily on Adrian Peterson to carry the load, and their one-dimensional offense will be easy for the Rams to stop.
St. Louis ranks 12th in the league against the run at 110.3 yards/game. It is also giving up just 4.0 yards/carry. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the 13 teams the Rams have faced this season average 126 yards and 4.4/carry, so they clearly have a great run D.
The Rams are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season, clearly playing best football inside the Edward Jones Dome. Minnesota has been atrocious on the road, going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season. The Vikings are getting outscored by an average of 7.5 points/game away from home this year.
Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These five trends combine for a 31-1 (97%) system backing St. Louis. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-16-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +8 v. Miami Dolphins||3-24||Loss||-119||46 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +8
The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 5-1 ATS. This team doesn't have the best following at home, so they have a hard time getting excited to play in a stadium that has thousands of empty seats. It's just a better atmosphere for these players when they go on the road.
They lost at Minnesota 23-26 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog, won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their five road covers.
Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 ATS in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI)
|12-15-12||Toledo v. Utah State OVER 58.5||Top||15-41||Loss||-107||65 h 24 m||Show|
20* Toledo/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a match-up between two of the best offenses in the country. I look for a high-scoring affair in this contest between Utah State and Toledo with 60-plus combined points scored by game's end.
Utah State is scoring 34.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the country in total offense at 460.7 yards/game. What makes this offense so difficult to stop is its balance. The Aggies average 193 yards on the ground and 268 through the air.
The Aggies should have their way with a Toledo stop unit that ranks 107th in the country in total defense. They give up a whopping 463.2 yards/game, including 168 on the ground and 295 through the air.
Toledo is putting up 32.9 points/game while ranking 28th in the country in total offense at 456.1 yards/game. It also has tremendous balance as it averages 197 yards on the ground and 259 through the air.
Utah State does have a good defense, but it hasn't faced many offenses nearly as potent as the one it will be facing in this bowl game. Two offenses they've faced that have been comparable are San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. They gave up 27 points in a 49-27 victory over San Jose State on September 13th, and 41 points in a 48-41 victory over Louisiana Tech on November 17th.
Toledo is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 78.8 combined points on average in this situation. The Rockets are 11-1 to the OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 76.0 combined points in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-13-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +5||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||22 h 36 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Eagles NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5
The Eagles are showing excellent value at home tonight as a 5-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. This line opened at Cincinnati -3, but the betting public has jumped all over the Bengals pushing it up to 5 in some places. I liked the Eagles at +3.5, and I certainly will back them at this price with a gift of a line from the books at +4.5 or better.
Philadelphia is undervalued right now due to the fact that it won't be going to the playoffs. These players have really known that for quite some time after a 3-7 start, but they have kept fighting. I look for them to continue to give their best effort tonight and to try and play the role of spoiler, just as they did last week.
The Eagles have been fighting for the last three weeks. They lost at home to Carolina 22-30 on November 26th, lost at Dallas 33-38 as a 10.5-point dog on December 2nd, then won 23-21 at Tampa Bay as a 7-point dog last Sunday. They thoroughly outplayed the Bucs, outgaining them 367-314 for the game.
Nick Foles had a big game, completing 32 of 51 passes for 381 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, he has not thrown an interception in 14 quarters as he continues to improve with each start. The Eagles' defense held Josh Freeman to 14 of 34 passing for 189 yards and two touchdowns.
"He has the potential to be a special quarterback in this league," said Jeremy Maclin, who caught a season-high nine passes for 104 yards in the win over Tampa Bay. "And he's growing up right in front of our eyes."
Cincinnati blew a 9-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to lose 19-20 to the Dallas Cowboys last week. Head coach Marvin Lewis hasn't been able to get his team to respond well following tough losses like that one. Lewis is 2-10 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of Cincinnati.
Andy Reid is 29-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Philadelphia. Lewis is 0-9 ATS in road games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return as the coach of Cincinnati.
This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|12-10-12||Houston Texans +4 v. New England Patriots||Top||14-42||Loss||-120||121 h 21 m||Show|
20* Texans/Pats ESPN Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +4
The Houston Texans have been the best team in the league all season in my opinion. I look for them to go out and make a statement Monday against the New England Patriots and win this game outright. I'll just take the points for some extra insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal either way.
A closer look at the numbers shows that Houston is the better team in this one. It ranks 4th in the league in total offense (388.5 yards/game) and 6th in total defense (322.9 yards/game). It is outgaining opponents by an average of 65.6 yards/game on the season.
The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (426.2 yards/game). However, they are just 26th in total defense (381.7 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 44.5 yards/game. The difference in this game is going to be Houston's ability to get more stops behind a much better defense.
New England really started to show signs of missing TE Rob Gronkowski last week. It only gained 321 total yards against Miami in a lackluster 23-16 victory. Tom Brady and company are much easier to defense when you don't have to worry about his favorite weapon, which is clearly Gronkowski, especially in the red zone.
The Texans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 (96%) system backing Houston. I know this line is +3 and +3.5 in a lot of places, and I still recommend the Texans at those numbers. Bet the Texans Monday.
|12-09-12||Detroit Lions +7 v. Green Bay Packers||20-27||Push||0||97 h 13 m||Show|
15* Lions/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +7
The Lions are one of the best 4-8 teams in the history of the NFL. This team just continually beats itself, which is the only reason they are 4-8 right now instead of 8-4. They should have no problem getting motivated to face their NFC North rival as they want revenge from their 20-24 loss to Green Bay on November 18th, which was another game they gave away.
All eight of Detroit
|12-09-12||Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Seattle Seahawks||0-58||Loss||-110||93 h 8 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +10
The Arizona Cardinals should not be catching double-digit points against the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. The Cardinals are just 4-8 this season, but these division games are played closer to the vest, and they will have no problem getting up to face Seattle to try and spoil its season.
I like Arizona's chances of making a game out of this considering they will start John Skelton at quarterback this week instead of Ryan Lindley, who was absolutely atrocious in his last couple starts.
Remember, the Cardinals won five of their final six games last season to finish 8-8 with Skelton running the show. They had little to play for down the stretch last year, but showed tremendous pride. That's why I believe this team will not pack it in, especially against a division opponent in Week 14.
Seattle isn't a team built for blowout out the opposition, which is why it should not be this heavily favored Sunday. The Seahawks are only scoring 20.2 points/game on the season while ranking 24th in the league in total offense (328.6 yards/game).
The Seahawks have not been favored by more than 5.5 points in any other game this season. This is simply a case of them being overvalued due to their 5-0 record at home. Now is the time to go against that trend and back the double-digit road dog showing tremendous value.
This play falls into a system that is 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10.0 or more points (ARIZONA) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins. This trend just goes to show that teams on long losing streaks eventually show the kind of value that you just cannot pass up. That's the case in this one. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-09-12||Miami Dolphins +10 v. San Francisco 49ers||13-27||Loss||-103||93 h 48 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +10
The Miami Dolphins have been extremely competitive this season as they
|12-09-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Washington Redskins -1.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||118 h 53 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1.5
The Redskins are playing their best football of the season right now. They have won three straight over division rivals Philadelphia, Dallas and New York to put themselves in a great position to make a run at the NFC East title with only four games remaining. They trail the Giants by just one game, but own the tiebreaker due to their division record.
Baltimore may be 9-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers assures that it has been overachieving in the win-loss column all season. Six of its nine wins have come by 7 points or less, including five by 3 points or fewer. They have simply gotten all the breaks to go their way in close games, but that tends to even out over time.
The Ravens rank just 19th in the league in total offense at 343.2 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 372.4 yards per game. They are getting outgained by an average of 29.2 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team below .500 than one that is 9-3 on the season.
Baltimore was already playing without Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb, two of its best defensive players. Now, it is likely to be without 2011 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs for the rest of the season. Suggs suffered what was diagnosed a torn bicep in its 20-23 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday.
That's bad news for a suspect Baltimore defense that was already going to have a hard time containing Robert Griffin III and company. The Redskins are scoring 26.0 points/game this season while ranking 7th in the league in total offense (384.1 yards/game).
The biggest offensive strength for the Redskins is a rushing attack that is ranks 1st in the league at 167.2 yards/game. Baltimore ranks just 23rd in the league against the run, yielding 125.8 yards/game on the ground.
The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping Ray Rice. While the Redskins have not been good against the pass this season, they have been tremendous against the run. Washington ranks 4th in the league in run defense, yielding just 91.5 yards/game on the ground.
The Ravens never seem to play well the week after facing Pittsburgh, by far their biggest rival in the league. They lost at home to a Big Ben-less Steelers team last week, and I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the surging Redskins.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 December games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
|12-09-12||Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||20-19||Win||100||90 h 57 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Bengals NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas +3.5
As usual, the Cowboys have saved their best football for the last few months of the season. They have won three of their last four games to get right back in the playoff hunt in the NFC.
They certainly need this win a little bit more than the Bengals do considering they trail Seattle by one game for the final NFC wild-card spot, and they lost to the Seahawks earlier this season, so they are essentially two games back. They can also get in by winning the NFC East as they trail the Giants by one game.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that Dallas is one of the best teams in the league. Its ranks 8th in the league in total offense at 379.1 yards per game, and 11th in total defense at 336.7 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by 42.4 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 at this point of the season rather than one that is 6-6.
The Bengals have been playing well of late, winning four in a row straight up and four in a row ATS. Three of those wins came against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers, which is far from impressive. This four-game winning streak against weak competition has them overvalued, and they should not be the favorite here.
This play falls into a system that is 100-58 (63.3%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on underdogs or pick (DALLAS)
|12-08-12||Navy -7 v. Army||Top||17-13||Loss||-104||109 h 15 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -7
This is a big mismatch once again in 2012 just as it has been over the past decade in this series. I look for the Navy Midshipmen (7-4) to roll by more than a touchdown over the Army Black Knights (2-9) Saturday in one of the biggest rivalries in the country.
Navy is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Army. Most of these games haven't even been close as nine of the ten wins came by 12 points or more. Navy did only win 27-21 last season, but its football program was way down last year. It is back to being dominant once again in 2012, especially of late.
The Midshipmen have won six of their last seven games overall. This amazing run to end the season coincided with a change at quarterback. Freshman Keenan Reynolds led Navy to a comeback win over Air Force on October 6th and he has ran away with the job ever since.
Reynolds gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback with his ability to hit open receivers, which has made all the difference. Reynolds has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 754 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 585 yards and nine scores.
Navy's ability to pass the ball is going to be one of the biggest reasons they win and cover in this game. Unlike Army, they hardly have to worry about defending the pass. Army quarterback Trent Steelman is completing just 45.9 percent of his passes for 619 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Not only do the Midshipmen have the edge through the air, but they also have the edge defending the run. Navy gives up 161 rushing yards/game and 4.3/carry, while Army yields 238 rushing yards/game and 5.7/carry. Simply put, the Midshipmen have the advantage in every phase of this game and should be a bigger favorite because of it.
Navy is 18-3 ATS in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1992. Army is 0-7 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Midshipmen are 68-32 ATS in their last 100 road games. The Black Knights are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-06-12||Denver Broncos -10 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||26-13||Win||100||67 h 4 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Denver -10
The Broncos are the hottest team in the league heading into Week 14. They have won seven straight while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. All seven victories have come by 7 points or more as well, so it
|12-03-12||NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3||Top||16-17||Win||100||99 h 49 m||Show|
25* Giants/Redskins MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +3
The Redskins had the Giants beat in their first meeting, but gave the game away in a 23-27 road loss on October 21st. They outgained the Giants 480-393 for the game, but committed four turnovers while also allowing the game-winning 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz with 1:13 to play.
|12-02-12||Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 43||33-38||Win||100||75 h 44 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 43
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Sunday in this NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. I look for a similar final to the 38-23 game these teams played in their first meeting of the season on November 11th where 61 combined points were scored.
Both defenses are surrendering big points this season. Philadelphia allows 25.6 points/game overall, while Dallas gives up 23.8 points/game, including 26.2 points/game at home this year.
Both offenses rank in the top half of the league. Philadelphia is 14th in total offense at 357.2 yards/game, while Dallas is 9th at 375.6 yards/game. The Eagles are giving up 30.7 points/game in their last six contests, while the Cowboys are yielding 27.0 points/game in their last three.
Dallas is 8-1 to the OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 58.4 points/game in this situation. The Cowboys are 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 25-2 (93%) system backing the OVER. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-02-12||Pittsburgh Steelers +9 v. Baltimore Ravens||23-20||Win||100||42 h 43 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +9
The Steelers simply need this win more as they are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC if the season were to end today. Baltimore has some breathing room in the AFC North as it is three games clear of both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It doesn
|12-02-12||San Francisco 49ers v. St Louis Rams +7.5||Top||13-16||Win||100||70 h 57 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Rams +7.5
The Rams went into San Francisco and should have won the first meeting of the season. They outgained the 49ers 458-341 for the game. The 49ers were very fortunate to not lose any of their four fumbles in that contest.
St. Louis had its best offensive performance of the season in that game, proving that the 49ers
|12-02-12||Indianapolis Colts +5 v. Detroit Lions||35-33||Win||100||67 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +5
The Colts have been underrated all season. Nobody picked this team to be 7-4 at this point, let alone win seven games all year. They are right in the middle of the AFC playoff hunt due to their surprising start. This is a team that is going to give it their all every week as they play for head coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling cancer.
Detroit has to be deflated after falling to Houston on Thanksgiving Day 34-31 in overtime for yet another heartbreaking loss. This team could suffer a hangover from that defeat as its playoff hopes have all but been crushed. Detroit does have four wins this season, but three of those came by 4 points or less. Considering the Lions have just one win all season by more than 4 points, I'll gladly side with the value and the Colts +5.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS)
|12-01-12||Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3||31-70||Win||100||51 h 7 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship BAILOUT on Wisconsin +3
The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 27-30 loss at Nebraska earlier this season on September 29th as an 11-point underdog. They blew a 27-10 second-half lead in that contest, allowing the Corhuskers to score 20 unanswered points to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Nebraska has been getting away with murder all season, but that's not going to happen again Saturday. The Huskers have escaped with so many close victories over the final minutes of games that you would almost think it's magical.
The Huskers have five wins by 9 points or less, and every one of those games came right down to the wire with the opposing team blowing it in the end. Nebraska is nowhere near as good as its 10-2 record would indicate, and it is not even the better team in this contest.
Beating a team twice in the same season is extremely difficult, especially after the nature of the way the Huskers came back to win by 3 points in their first meeting at home. On a neutral field this time around, I have no doubt that the Badgers have their revenge and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl with a victory.
Wisconsin has an edge in the running game, which is going to be the difference in this game. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Badgers stop it better. They rank 13th in the country in rushing defense (111.3 yards/game), allowing just 3.4 yards/carry. Nebraska ranks 72nd against the run (166.2 yards/game), yielding 4.2 yards/carry.
Nebraska is 10-22 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992. Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992. The Badgers are 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. After closing out the season with back-to-back overtime losses to Ohio State and Penn State, the Badgers are battle-tested heading into this one. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.
|12-01-12||Florida State v. Georgia Tech +14||Top||21-15||Win||100||51 h 53 m||Show|
20* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +14
The Yellow Jackets
|12-01-12||Alabama v. Georgia +8||32-28||Win||100||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Georgia SEC Championship No-Brainer on Georgia +8
The Bulldogs have certainly saved their best football for last. After a shaky start to the season due to suspensions to key players, they have rebounded nicely to win the SEC East for a second straight season. They certainly have a ton of momentum heading into the SEC Championship because of it.
Georgia has won six straight games while going 4-1 ATS in its last five contests dating back to a 17-9 win over Florida, its biggest win of the season. It has outscored each of its last four opponents all by 27 points or more, including a 42-10 victory over Georgia Tech last week.
The biggest difference in this team is that it has finally started to play up to its potential defensively. It has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games, giving up an average of just 8.6 points per game in the process. This was one of the best stop units in the country last season, and it
|11-30-12||UCLA Bruins +8.5 v. Stanford||Top||24-27||Win||100||31 h 18 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA +8.5
UCLA simply suffered a letdown last week against Stanford. It was coming off its biggest win of the season with a victory over USC the previous week that assured it a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Essentially, the Bruins really had nothing to play for against the Cardinal last week.
|11-30-12||Northern Illinois v. Kent State +7.5||44-37||Win||100||26 h 48 m||Show|
15* NIU/Kent State MAC Championship No-Brainer on Kent State +7.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies are way overvalued heading into this MAC Championship. Kent State has been underrated all season and should not be catching a touchdown in a game I believe they can win outright. I'll take the points for some insurance.
Northern Illinois has not been playing all that sharp of football lately. They beat Toledo 31-24 at home as a 10-point favorite on November 14th, then went on the road to beat Eastern Michigan 14-7 as a 20.5-point favorite on November 23rd. This will be their toughest test of the season thus far.
Kent State is 11-1 this season while dominating along the way. Ten of its 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. The fact that this team is 10-2 ATS on the season shows how undervalued they have been all year. They'll continue making backers money at the pay window tonight.
The biggest reason I like Kent State in this contest is its ability to stop the run. It ranks 27th in the country against the run (129.3 yards/game) while allowing 3.7 yards/carry. That's impressive considering the 12 opponents it has faced average 169 rushing yards and 4.4/carry on the season. Northern Illinois rushes for 245.0 yards/game, so stopping the run is extremely important in this one.
Kent State is 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game this season. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Kent State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Golden Flashes. Take Kent State Friday.
|11-29-12||New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||13-23||Loss||-104||30 h 6 m||Show|
20* Saints/Falcons NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans +3.5
The Saints simply need this win more as they sit at just 5-6 on the season. They cannot afford more than one more loss the rest of the season if they want to make the playoffs, and they may just have to win out to do so. They
|11-29-12||Louisville v. Rutgers UNDER 44||20-17||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Rutgers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44
This game between Louisville and Rutgers is for all the marbles with the Big East Championship on the line. Both teams features below-average offenses and great defenses, and I look for a defensive battle tonight because of it.
Rutgers is giving up just 13.7 points/game overall, including 12.0 points/game at home. It ranks 14th in the country in total defense at 317.4 yards/game allowed. Louisville is yielding 24.2 points/game while ranking 26th in the country in total defense at 345.5 yards/game.
Rutgers has really struggled offensively this season as it ranks 100th in the country in total offense at 341.4 yards/game. Louisville has been decent offensively at 44th in the land with 431.3 yards/game, but it has yet to face a defense as dominant as the one it will see tonight.
I look for this contest to result in a similar final score to last year's 16-14 home victory by Louisville. The Cardinals managed just 309 total yards while limiting the Scarlet Knights to 298 total yards. I don't foresee either team topping 20 points in this one, either.
Rutgers is 7-0 to the UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 to the UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Scarlet Knights last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-26-12||Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 41||Top||30-22||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. The books and the betting public are overreacting here to the losses of Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy for the Eagles.
Nick Foles and Bryce Brown will be taking their place, and I believe the Eagles still have one of the top offenses in the league with these two at the forefront. Philly ranks a very respectable 13th in the NFL in total offense at 361.8 yards/game.
It will be up against a Carolina defense that ranks 18th in the league at 350.7 yards/game allowed, and one that is without several key players due to injury. The Panthers are giving up 24.3 points/game this season.
The Eagles are giving up 25.2 points/game overall and 26.8 points/game at home. Cam Newton should have his way with a Philadelphia pass defense which has allowed a combined 143.6 passer rating over the past four weeks, surrendering 11 touchdown passes and making no interceptions.
Carolina is 8-1 to the OVER in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are 12-3 to the OVER in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. The OVER is 9-2 in Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Eagles last 8 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 games in Week 12. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|11-25-12||Green Bay Packers +3 v. NY Giants||10-38||Loss||-111||25 h 1 m||Show|
15* Packers/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay +3
The Packers are rolling right now and it would be pretty foolish to bet against them with how well they are playing. They have won five straight while going 4-1 ATS in the process. They
|11-25-12||Baltimore Ravens v. San Diego Chargers +2||16-13||Loss||-110||21 h 36 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +2
Taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe the Chargers are actually the superior team and should be the favorite in this contest. Yes, they have given some games away, but the Ravens have basically won all of their close games while catching plenty of breaks along the way. That
|11-25-12||Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||Top||10-34||Loss||-119||18 h 32 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +9.5
This line is simply an overreaction from recent results between these two teams. There's no way the Bengals should be favored by 9.5 points against almost any team in the league. That's why I believe there is some serious line value with the Oakland Raiders in this one.
Public perception right now says that the Bengals are a great team because of back-to-back blowout victories over the Giants and Chiefs. With those two wins, they have created expectations against the spread that they simply cannot live up to. The betting public loves this team right now, which is why it's time to fade them.
Public perception is way down on the Oakland Raiders after three straight losses, including blowouts at the hands of the Ravens and Saints in their last two contests. Well, the Ravens and Saints are two of the best teams in the league. This will be a much easier task Sunday against the 5-5 Bengals, who I believe are way overrated.
This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
This system just goes to show you how teams that have been blown out in recent weeks tend to show excellent value in their next contest. That's certainly the case in this one folks. Bet the Raiders Sunday.
|11-24-12||Stanford -1.5 v. UCLA||35-17||Win||100||93 h 52 m||Show|
15* Stanford/UCLA Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -1.5
The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot here. They picked up their biggest win in years with a 38-28 home victory over USC last Saturday, which won them the Pac-12 South title and a trip to the conference championship game.
Stanford is coming off a huge win over Oregon as well, but it still has some work to do to win the Pac-12 North. It would clinch the division title with a win over UCLA Saturday.
I'm not saying UCLA is going to let Stanford win, but it would much rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship than Oregon. Either way, when you look at the scenario, there's no question that Stanford is going to be the more motivated team heading into this one.
A great way to compare teams is to look at common opponents. Stanford and UCLA have played the same six opponents this season. The Cardinal are 6-0 against those six teams, outscoring them by 15.0 points/game. The Bruins are 4-2 against those six teams, outscoring them by 11.5 points/game.
The Cardinal have by far the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 16.9 points/game overall, including 10.8 points/game on the road, while ranking 18th in the country in total defense (328.4 yards/game). UCLA is giving up 25.0 points/game while ranking 80th in total defense (420.4 yards/game).
Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with UCLA, outscoring the Bruins a combined 114-35. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cardinal are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Cardinal are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall. Stanford is 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Stanford Saturday.
|11-24-12||Wisconsin v. Penn State -2.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||93 h 49 m||Show|
25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -2.5
The Nittany Lions have been undervalued all season due to their problems off the field with the Sandusky scandal. On the field, this has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten. They have gone 7-4 overall, including 8-2-1 ATS to prove that they have been undervalued by oddsmakers all year.
This is Senior Day for Penn State, and since they are serving a postseason ban, they won