15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver Broncos -4.5

The Denver Broncos are rolling right now going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those losses was a game they deserved to win in a 16-14 loss at Kansas City as 7-point dogs in a game they had won, but had their short FG blocked on the final play.  They also lost to the Ravens on the road and the Chargers, who were coming off their bye week and were a lot healthier at the time.  All of those losses have aged well.

The Broncos are crushing the teams they are supposed to beat, like these Las Vegas Raiders.  They upset the Bucs by 19, upset the Jets as 8.5-point road dogs, crushed the Raiders by 16 at home, crushed the Saints by 23 on the road, topped the Panthers by 14 at home and buried the Falcons by 32 at home last week.

While the Broncos are almost fully healthy right now and motivated to make the playoffs, the Raiders are in limbo right now and not healthy at all.  The Raiders are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their six losses coming by an average of 13.2 points per game.

The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, they are without their top two RB's in Mattison and White, they are missing two starters along the offensive line, and they could be without three starters in the secondary.  It's not going to get any better this week against the Broncos.  I expect this to feel like a home game for Denver as their fans will travel well, and Raiders fans don't have a lot to be excited about right now.

While Bo Nix is getting a lot of the headlines and is playing very well behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it's this Denver defense that is the backbone.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game and 3rd at 289.4 yards per game.  They are also 1st allowing 4.9 yards per play.  Their task will be easy this week because the Raiders' only real threat on offense is TE Brock Bowers, who has 70 receptions for 706 yards this season.  They will scheme up a way to take him out, and Denver should win in another blowout.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Dolphins OVER 45

The New England Patriots are becoming more of an OVER team with Drake Maye at quarterback.  He is showing the Patriots made the right move by drafting him No. 3 overall and New England fans have a lot to look forward to.  His dual-threat ability and his deep ball make this Patriots offense a lot more potent than when Jacoby Brissett was running the show.

Maye is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 9-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 260 yards and a score on 9.3 per carry.  He kept the Patriots in the game last week in a 28-22 loss to the Rams.  The Rams put up 402 total yards on this banged up Patriots defense, but the Patriots got 382 total yards in a shootout.

This Miami offense has taken off since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.  He has led them to 27 points against the Cardinals, 27 against the Bills, 23 against the Rams and 34 against the Raiders.  The Dolphins profile much more as an OVER team as long as Tua is under center.  He'll be up against a New England defense that has six starters listed on the injury report and another six listed out or on IR.

The forecast in Miami looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total of 45 is too low for the makeup of these two teams currently.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Washington Commanders -10

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders Sunday.  They are coming off a mini bye week after playing the Eagles last Thursday.  That was their second consecutive loss after falling by 1 to the Steelers.  They will be motivated coming out of their mini-bye, and they will be a lot healthier, including QB Jayden Daniels.

Now the Commanders get a team they should handle in the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  This is a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.  The Cowboys are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons, 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles and 34-10 as 7-point home dogs to the Texans.  

They even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty. 

That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.  Rush had more success against the Texans, but it was a lot of dink and dunk when they were trailing big.  He's just not a NFL starting QB.

The injuries just keep piling up for the Cowboys.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a concussion against the Texans.  They will be without RG Zack Martin, and several other key players are questionable in WR Brandin Cooks, LG Tyron Smith, LB Nick Vigil and CB Trevon Diggs.

After facing two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and Eagles, things should come a lot easier for Daniels and this Washington offense against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Cowboys.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense allowing 29.3 points per game.  It is 30th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  The Cowboys have now allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  Washington will get to at least 27, and that will be enough to cover this 10-point spread.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have new life coming out of their bye week with a new QB in Tommy DeVito.  We saw him give them a spark last season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in his six starts, including 4-0 ATS against the four teams that allowed the most points per game that he faced.

He will be up against a leaky Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 30th in total defense at 389.3 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Giants will have a lot more success on offense than they are getting credit for this week.

On the other side of the ball, the strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush.  They will be up against a shaky Tampa Bay offensive line that will likely be without their best player in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Baker Mayfield will be under duress all game. The Giants are almost fully healthy coming out of their bye week and will be getting some key players back to boot.

The Giants are undervalued due to their poor 2-8 SU record.  But they are 1-5 SU in games decided by one score.  They have been unfortunate in close games.  If they lose this game, it will be by one score, so there's some serious value in getting +6 with them at home this week.  This line was Tampa Bay -3 on the lookahead which is where I believe its should be, so we are getting 3 full points of value here.  Don't be the surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

Baker Mayfield is 9-13 SU & 9-13 ATS in his career coming off extended rest, including 3-8 SU on the road.  Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his coaching career, including 2-8 SU on the road.  Brian Daboll is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Giants.  Mayfield is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Colts OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are really an OVER team as currently constructed.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but one of the worst defenses, it's just that that defense hasn't been exposed yet due to scheduling.  I think this is where their defense gets exposed and they'll have to try and keep up with the Colts in a shootout.

No question the Lions are loaded on offense ranking 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 394.7 yards per game.  They're almost fully healthy on offense.  But the same cannot be said for their defense, which is missing their best player in DE Aidan Hutchinson and now arguably their most important player in LB Alex Anzalone, who will miss most of the season after suffering an injury against the Jaguars last week.  Anzalone is the one that relays all the plays on defense.

Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week for the Colts and played one of the best games of his career. He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  They beat the Jets 28-27 for 55 combined points in a shootout.

The Lions play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  I think the Colts are capable of keeping up with the Lions in a shootout as both teams will get their points in perfect conditions indoors.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Lions last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +8.5

This is the ultimate 'sell high' spot on the Detroit Lions.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I successfully faded them in their lone non-cover during this stretch backing the Texans as 3.5-point home underdogs in a 3-point loss two weeks ago.

But Detroit blasted Jacksonville last week 52-6 in a game where it looked like the Jaguars simply quit.  Mac Jones was the starting QB too for the injury-ravaged Jaguars.  Teams off a win by 35-plus points who are a favorite or a dog of +3 or less the next week like the Lions are just 17-34-1 ATS since 2021.  This trend just goes to show how teams off a blowout win are overvalued the next week.

The Lions have been getting pretty lucky as far as facing teams are the right time here of late.  The Titans were starting Mason Rudolph, the Packers were starting a hobbled Jordan Love who gifted them a pick-6, the Texans were missing Nico Collins and Will Anderson which are two of their three best players, and the Jaguars were missing Trevor Lawrence among others.

I think this is where Detroit meets its match.  This is a very healthy Indianapolis Colts team that is motivated to make the playoffs sitting at 5-6 and just one game behind the Broncos for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.  Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week and played one of the best games of his career.

He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  Their defense is playing much better in recent weeks now that they're healthy, and they only allowed 10 first down for the entire game to the Jets.  It was actually a misleading 28-27 final as 4-point road underdogs.  I was on the Colts last week as well.

The Colts play more zone defense than any team in the NFL.  Jared Goff kills man-to-man and struggles against zone.  Goff has a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season against teams that play mostly man, and a 7-to-9 TD/INT ratio against teams that play mostly zone.

The Lions don't have a very good defense without Aidan Hutchinson and now without their green dot in LB Alex Anzalone, who is one of the most underrated linebackers in the league.  They lost him last week against the Jaguars and he won't return until the end of the season.  They play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts win this game outright, but getting more than 7 points with them at home is absurd.  The Colts are 8-3 ATS in all games this season and have just one loss by more than 8 points all season, and that was a misleading 10-point loss to Buffalo that was aided by a pick-6 and four turnovers overall, including 3 interceptions from Joe Flacco.  Richardson is 6-1 ATS as a starting QB this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye, and first-year head coaches benefit the most from byes.  The Panthers needed the bye because they were one of the most banged up teams in the NFL.  But reinforcements are on the way now coming out of the bye.

It looks like the Panthers should be getting back WR Adam Thielen, RB Jonathan Brooks, DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB DJ Wonnum, LB DJ Johnson and DE LaBryan Ray among others.  The Panthers won outright as 7-point home dogs over the Saints and outright as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral to the Giants in Germany going into their bye.

Now they should be motivated coming out of their bye with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.  The spot is a bad one for the Chiefs, who suffered their first loss of the season 30-21 on the road to the Bills last week.  That ended their perfect season, and I think there will be a hangover effect here with the type of loss that could beat a team twice.

The Chiefs were living on borrowed time as it is.  They are 7-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Eight of their nine wins came by 10 points or fewer as well.  They were just able to mask a lot of their problems by coming up clutch late in games.  Their luck has run out, and asking them to now go on the road again and beat a rejuvenated Panthers team coming off a bye is asking too much.

Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit road favorite.  He has struggled throughout his career covering spreads of 7 or more as the Chiefs just have a knack of playing to their level of competition and playing in close games.  That's evidenced by the fact that nine of their 10 games this season have been decided by 10 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.

20* Steelers/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 36

The lookahead total for this game was 42.  Bettors were anticipating weather so they bet this all the way down to a low of 36.  I bought the dip at 36 below the key numbers of 37 and 38 when it comes to NFL totals.  I think there's great value here on the OVER 36.

The forecast looks much better now than they projected early in the week, which happens all the time.  What was forecast to be 15-20 MPH winds is now in the single-digits.  Yes, there will be possible snow and rain, but wind affects scoring much more than precipitation.  A slick field actually favors the offense because players know where they are going.

The Steelers were trending as an OVER team with Russell Wilson at quarterback.  They went 3-0 OVER in his first three starts with 52, 44 and 55 combined points before a 18-16 victory over the Ravens last week that stayed well under the total of 48.5.  That result I think is keeping this total lower than it should be as well.

The Steelers had to settle for 6 field goals against the Ravens as they simply could not punch in their scoring chances.  The Ravens also blew some opportunities as well.  And that's one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL and usually lower scoring to boot as they know each other inside and out.

Cleveland is an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They have gone for 53, 37 and 49 combined points in his three starts.  He stretches the field with big plays and big mistakes.  Winston threw for 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints last week in a 35-14 loss.  The Browns left a lot of points on the board including three missed field goals.  They still managed 49 combined points.

That's because this Cleveland defense is broken.  They allowed 35 points and 473 total yards to what was a short-handed New Orleans offense.  Taysom Hill ran for 138 yards on only seven carries and three touchdowns.  I think the Steelers will have similar success against them tonight.

The Steelers and Browns have combined for at least 40 points in seven of their last nine meetings.  And there has been some very poor QB play during this stretch, but I think these two teams are in about as good a shape as they have been at the QB position in a long time.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo/Eastern Michigan OVER 53

Both Buffalo and Eastern Michigan like to play fast, no-huddle offenses which is going to give us extra possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Buffalo ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds while Eastern Michigan ranks 27th snapping it ever 24.2 seconds.  These are two of the worst defenses int the MAC to boot.

Many bettors took the under in this game due to weather concerns, but I don't think it looks that bad.  Temps will be in the 40's with 15 MPH winds and there shouldn't be much precipitation by the time the game starts.  I think both offenses will have a lot more success than most are thinking due to the weather.

Buffalo is a dead nuts OVER team especially of late.  The Bulls have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 99, 71, 63 and 89 combined points in there last four games.  This 53-point total is very low for a game involving the Bulls with the way they are trending right now.

Eastern Michigan is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of those six games.  If this game is played more on the ground, neither team can stop the run.  Buffalo ranks 77th allowing 4.3 per carry while Eastern Michigan is even worse ranking 95th allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Both teams are pretty balanced offensively.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 54 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Texans/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -7

I jumped on the Texans +5 on the opener last week against the Lions with the anticipation that Nico Collins would be back.  He ended up getting scratched right before the game, and I felt fortunate to cash that ticket in a 3-point loss to the Lions even though the Texans led that game 23-7 at home point.

Now Nico Collins is officially back this week, which is why I'm willing to lay the -7 with the Texans among other factors.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  He means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense, which has actually produced a great running game this season with Joe Mixon.  Now the passing game will take off again this week.

Of course, it helps that the Texans get to play the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  The Texans will be motivated coming off two consecutive losses so they won't be looking past Dallas.  And they get to take on a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons and 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles.  And they even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was.

The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty.  That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.

It's not going to get any easier this week against a Houston Texans defense that has been great all season.  The Texans rank 3rd in total defense at 288.0 yards per game and 5th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  They rank 4th against the pass at 174.7 passing yards per game allowed, so Cooper Rush or Trey Lance won't be able to come back on them once they take a commanding lead.

Dallas is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this season and has trailed by at least 20 points in all four home games.  They lost 44-19 to the Saints, 28-25 to the Ravens after trailing by 22 entering the 4th, 47-9 to the Lions and 34-6 to the Eagles.  And they had Dak Prescott running the offense for those first three games.  

The Cowboys don't have a running game to help out their QB, and they are lacking weapons outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is banged up right now.  They just aren't going to be able to score enough to keep this game competitive.  Houston is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season and hungry to get the offense going with Collins back.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Bengals/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 45

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  They just went for 69 combined points with the Ravens, 65 with the Raiders and 54 with the Eagles in their last three games coming in.

Now the Bengals get their star WR Tee Higgins back from injury this week and will be even more potent on offense.  They put up 41 points on the Raiders and 34 points and 470 yards on the Ravens in their last two games without him.  LT Orlando Brown may be back this week as well.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

The current version of this Cincinnati offense will be far and away the best the Chargers have seen all season.  The Chargers will be forced to keep up in a shootout, and they should be able to do just that with the way their offense is trending in recent weeks since getting several key players back from injury.

The Chargers put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  Now they get to face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 26th in scoring at 26.2 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 347.5 yards per game.  The Chargers are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season.  Cincinnati is without LB Joe Bachie and both DE Trey Hendrickson and DT BJ Hill are questionable.

This has the makings of a shootout in perfect conditions in Los Angeles Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Falcons/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team that hasn't exactly gone of the total much this season at 6-4 to the UNDER.  That is keeping this total lower than it should be.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but also one of the worst defenses in the league in their current state.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving Atlanta right now.

The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 375.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  The put up 468 total yards on the Saints last week but only 17 points.  They missed three field goals and bogged down in the red zone.  I think that misleading 20-17 final against the Saints last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

This Denver offense has been trending up under Rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win.

Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.  The Falcons are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't stopping Denver.  This is a solid Denver defense, but it's also true that they have benefited from facing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses this season.  We saw what could happen against a legit offense two games ago when they allowed 41 points and 396 total yards to the Ravens.  The Falcons won't have that kind of success, but they will have enough to get us up and OVER this short total of 44.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

5* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Denver Broncos ML -128

I cashed in the Broncos +9 in their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs last week.  It was the type of gut-wrenching loss that I think sometimes beats a team twice, and as a result I didn't expect to be on the Broncos this week.  But I like the quotes coming out of their locker room off the loss, and once I saw the injury report for Atlanta, I have to be on the Broncos this week.

The Broncos sit at 5-5 on the season and still in great position to make the playoffs, but this feels like a must-win, so they should have no problem getting over the loss. to KC last week.  Atlanta has a commanding lead in the NFC South and won't be playing with as much urgency this week sitting at 6-4 on the season.

"This team has been resilient.  The sky isn't falling," head coach Sean Payton said. "We're sitting here 5-5 and we would've loved to be 6-4 with a win, but the focus shifts quickly to the next game.  I like the leadership on this time.  It's entirely different than it was a year ago.  It's tough mentally and physically, and we've got a good week of practice coming up before Atlanta."

The Broncos are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after facing the Chiefs in their previous game.  So, they haven't had letdowns in this spot previously, and they won't be having one Sunday, either.

This Denver offense has been trending up under rookie QB Bo Nix, who is arguably the second-best rookie QB in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels.  They put up 34 on the Raiders, 33 on the Saints and 28 on the Panthers.  Nix played a near perfect game against the Chiefs last week on the road going 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards and 2 TD and led what should have been the game-winning drive, but the Broncos had a short FG blocked on the final play that would have given them the upset win. Nix and company should have one of their best games of the season against this injury-ravaged Atlanta defense.

The Falcons allowed 365 total yards to what was a very injury-ravaged Saints offense that was missing their top three receivers and a couple offensive linemen.  The Saints picked up Marquez Valdes-Scantling off the street and he went for 109 receiving yards and 2 TD on this Atlanta defense.  The Saints upset the Falcons 20-17 at home despite all their injuries both on offense and on defense.

Things have gone from bad to worse for this Atlanta defense, which gets the least pressure of any defense in the NFL this season with just 9.5 sacks in 10 games.  The injury report for their defense is almost laughable.  They are without CB Mike Hughes, CB Dee Alford, CB Antonio Hamilton and already have three other secondary players on IR.  They are without LB Troy Anderson, LB JD Bertrand, DE Ta'Quon Graham and LB James Smith-Williams.  They have 6 defenders on IR and 7 defenders ruled out just this week.  Mercy.

While the Falcons have a great offense, I think the Broncos can hold them in check.  Denver is basically fully healthy on both sides of the football, and this defense has been the backbone of the team.  The Broncos rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 5th in total defense at 295.7 points per game.  They rank 1st at 5.0 yards per play allowed.

Both teams will get their points, especially Denver, but this game will be decided by the Broncos getting more stops than this decimated Atlanta defense.  I really like the Broncos, and I really like the OVER in this game this week due to those Atlanta injuries.  Bet the Broncos on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Seahawks/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 48

The San Francisco 49ers just got their full compliment of weapons back last week coming out of their bye.  They got Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and JaJuan Jenning all back from injury against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Those three combined for 276 of their 413 yards from scrimmage to show their importance to this team.  This 49ers offense is one of the best in the NFL when healthy, and that hasn't been the case for much of the season, and they are still putting up some of the best numbers in the league.

The 49ers rank 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.8 yards per play trailing only the potent Baltimore Ravens in both categories.  They have been able to score at will on Seattle for years as they just have their number, and they will be able to pretty much name their number against Seattle again.

The 49ers have averaged 34 points per game in their last four meetings with Seattle.  They beat the Seahawks 36-24 in their first meeting this season for 60 combined points, and a similar shootout will be the result in the rematch.  The 49ers had 483 total yards in that win.

Reinforcements are on the way for Seattle on offense now as well.  They had a bye last week, and DK Metcalf was close to coming back before the bye, and now he should be 100% coming out of the bye.  Metcalf means everything to this Seattle offense with his ability to stretch the field.  He has 568 receiving yards in basically just six games of action while averaging 16.2 per reception.

Geno Smith was lost the last two games without Metcalf against the Bills and Rams.  He will be much more comfortable this week.  He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 9th in total offense at 359.4 yards per game and 10th at 5.9 yards per play.  Geno threw for 312 yards in that first meeting with the 49ers and the Seahawks found a lot of success once they went up-tempo, which is something they may look to deploy again in the rematch.  That would benefit the OVER.

The 49ers just aren't as dominant defensively as they have been in the past, and Nick Bosa has been a non-factor for much of the season.  The Seahawks haven't lived up to the hype defensively this season with Mike McDonald.  They have allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games and an average of 29.7 points per game during this stretch.  

I just don't think McDonald has the right players to run what he wants to run, and he even just cut his leading tackler in LB Tyrel Dodson.  The 49ers aren't the offense to get right against defensively coming out of their bye week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Green Bay Packers -6

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week and should be basically fully healthy for the first time this season.  They are expected to get both CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams back from injury on defense this week, and they are one of the better defenses in the NFL when fully healthy.

Jordan Love returned early from a groin injury against the Lions and threw a costly pick-6 in a misleading 24-14 loss to the Lions going into the bye.  The Packers outgained the Lions 411 to 261 in that game, or by 150 total yards.  Love should be much healthier and get back to being his mobile self coming out of the bye.

But as much as I'm buying on the Packers coming off their bye, I'm selling on the Chicago Bears right now.  This organization is a mess right now, and head coach Eberflus is losing the locker room.  Clearly receivers aren't happy with Caleb Williams, most notably DJ Moore, and Williams is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league that is also banged up.

The Bears haven't scored a TD in 23 straight possessions on offense.  Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times this season including 9 times last week by the Patriots alone.  The Bears were missing five starters along the offensive line at one point in that New England game due to injury.  They managed just 142 total yards against New England.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary in a 18-15 loss at Washington coming out of their bye week.  They didn't do anything in that game offensively until the 4th quarter as they were shut out in the first three quarters.  They went on to lose 29-9 at Arizona and 19-3 at home to the Patriots, part of their 23 straight possessions without an offensive TD.  Now they have to take a step up in class here against the Packers, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Packers are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bears with all 10 wins coming by 7 points or more.  Green Bay is 30-12-1 ATS in the last 43 meetings dating back further.  Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 (60%) ATS since 2004.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +4

The New York Jets continue to take money week after week and it makes no sense.  The Jets are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against a hobbled Houston Texans team.  The losses are the most concerning.

The Jets lost last week 31-6 at Arizona despite going off as 2-point favorites.  They lost 25-22 at New England as 7-point favorites.  They lost 37-15 at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites the game prior.  They have gotten worse since firing head coach Robert Saleh, especially defensively.  Giving up 37 points to Pittsburgh and 25 to New England is bad, and they allowed 31 points and 406 total yards to Arizona last week.  Most of that was done in the first three quarters at it was 31-6 Arizona with 4:13 left in the 3rd and it remained that way only after the Cardinals called off the dogs.

This New York offense is broken, too.  The Jets managed just 207 total yards on a suspect Arizona defense last week despite trailing from the jump and being in catch up mode the entire time.  Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons, but the problem is the banged up offensive line that cannot protect him.  The Jets are missing four offensive linemen and three more are banged up and possibly will try to play through injury.  What a mess.

While the Jets are all but eliminated from playoff contention at 3-7, the Colts sit at 4-6 and still very much alive as that one game difference is huge in the AFC.  They have new life going back to Anthony Richardson at QB this week after Joe Flacco clearly was not the answer.  I think having the last two weeks off will do Richardson a lot of good and allow him to correct mistakes.

The Colts are a much healthier team than the Jets.  They get WR Michael Pittman back this week and are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Bernhard Raimann.  They are also fully healthy on defense for basically the first time this season with only LB EJ Speed questionable.

After losses by 8 at Minnesota and by 10 at home to Buffalo this week, the Colts will be happy to take a big step down in class this week against the Jets.  That was a misleading final against the Bills, who scored a defensive TD and only outgained the Colts by 44 yards.  They benefited from four Indianapolis turnovers.

Look for the Colts to go run-heavy here with the read-option with dual-threat Richardson to take advantage of a very bad New York run defense.  The Jets have allowed 147 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.  They really missed MLB CJ Mosely, the leader of their defense who remains out.  Their defense hasn't been the same since losing him.  Look for a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and Richardson on the ground as the Colts keep this game close for four quarters and likely pull off the upset.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 46

The Pittsburgh Steelers have only faced Lamar Jackson once in their last five meetings with the Ravens either due to Jackson being injured or Baltimore resting its starters.  They're going to have to face the NFL MVP Sunday, and they aren't going to enjoy the experience.

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 1st in scoring at 31.8 points per game, 1st in total offense at 440.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,120 yards and 12 TD.

The Steelers have a great defense, but they have also benefited from playing the league's 6th-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.  The Ravens will be far and away the best offense they have faced yet, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  The Steelers just lost one of their best pass rushers in LB Alex Highsmith last week to injury, and he is out for this one.  Not having him is a big blow to their defense.

The Steelers have taken off offensively since switching to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.  The OVER is 3-0 in Steelers last three games overall as they put up 37 points and 409 total yards on the Jets, 26 points and 426 total yards on the Giants and 28 points and 312 total yards on the Commanders.  The Steelers now have a downfield passing game with Wilson, and he has ample weapons with George Pickens leading the way plus the addition of Mike Williams.

The Steelers are capable of keeping up with the Ravens in a shootout and they are going to be forced to do just that, because the Ravens are going to get their points.  The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 294.9 passing yards per game and 29th at 7.4 yards per attempt.  SS Kyle Hamilton is their most important player in the secondary and he is hobbled with an ankle injury.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable as the Ravens are getting very thin on the defensive line.

These games between the Ravens and Steelers have been low-scoring in the pass largely because both were missing their starting QB's due to either rest or injury.  That's has been especially the case with Lamar Jackson, who has missed four of the last five meetings. But both teams are in the best shape they have been in a long time at the QB position coming into this one now.  I think the series history is keeping this total lower than it should be.  This has the makings of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* San Diego State/UNLV MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 54

The OVER is 4-2 since UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams took over six games ago.  It was a blessing in disguise that their starting QB decided to opt out and hit the portal.  Their offense has taken off ever since.  Williams is completing 64% of his passes for 1,192 yards and a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 617 yards and 6 TD on 6.2 per carry.  He has been absolutely dynamic both as a passer and a runner.

The Rebels have averaged 39.3 points per game in their last six games with Williams running the show.  That includes 41.3 points per game in their three home games against Boise State, Syracuse and Fresno State.  With the Rebels still feeling like they have a chance to make the 12-team playoff, their feel like they need style points and won't be afraid to run it up.  I think they can top 40 points on San Diego State in this one.

The Aztecs rank 88th in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 405.4 yards per game.  They played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses all season until recently, when they allowed 56 points and 541 total yards at Boise State two games ago.

San Diego State ranks 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.5 seconds.  UNLV ranks 60th in tempo.  This game will see a lot of possessions which means more chances for points.  And I think this total is being set too low tonight due to San Diego State's performance in their last game.

San Diego State lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico last game with a total of 65 set for that game.  New Mexico had 475 total yards and should have scored more.  But both teams kept bogging down in the red zone and San Diego State kicked FG's of 22, 28 and 31 yards.  It was also some of the worst field conditions I've seen in all of college football this season.  Players were slipping everywhere, and it's a reminder not to play overs in SDSU home games moving forward.

This game will be played on a fast track in the dome inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  The last five UNLV games played inside Allegiant Stadium have averaged 76.4 combined points.  UNLV is capable of covering this total on their own, but I expect San Diego State to get in the 20's to help.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kansas/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 3-6 teams in the history of college football.  BYU is one of the worst 9-0 teams in the history of college football.  There's a reason this line is only 3 with those records, and I fully expect the Jayhawks to win this game outright.

Kansas is 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was last week when they put up 45 points and 532 total yards against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

BYU has a worse defense than all three of those teams, so I fully expect the Jayhawks to hang a big number on them.  And while the Jayhawks have been very unlucky in close games, the Cougars are winning all of theirs.  BYU is 4-0 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.

The Cougars are coming off a massive 22-21 win at the buzzer at Utah in the Holy War last week.  They got bailed out by the refs on their final drive on a 4th-and-10 sack that turned into a phantom holding penalty on Utah.  BYU took advantage and drove the length of the field, setting up the game-winning 44-yard field goal.

Now BYU has a 2-game lead over 3rd place in the Big 12, which means they can afford a loss and still make the Big 12 Championship Game.  I think having that in the back of their minds and feeling 'fat and happy' off a win over their big brothers last week sets them up for a prime letdown spot this week.  Couple that with all the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff and there is a lot this team is dealing with emotionally.

Kansas is in a great state of mind knowing it needs to run the table to make a bowl game.  The Jayhawks are 'all in' and out to prove they are much better than their record would indicate.  They started last week by upsetting Iowa State, and now they are licking their chops at the opportunity to knock BYU from the unbeaten ranks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* Oregon/Wisconsin NBC ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +14

The Wisconsin Badgers have a huge rest advantage over Oregon that I don't think is being factored into this line enough.  That's one of the main reasons why I'm willing to back the Badgers catching two touchdowns at home in what will be a great, hostile atmosphere with the No. 1 team in the country coming to Madison for a 7:30 EST kick.

Wisconsin had a bye last week to regroup.  The Badgers had played six consecutive weeks and needed the bye.  In their 5th game they gave Penn State all they could handle at home in a 14-13 game in the 4th quarter that included a 19-yard INT return by Penn State in a game the Badgers should have been leading.  It snowballed from there as Penn State outscored them 14-0 in the 4th in a 28-13 final.

I think the Badgers let that loss beat them twice the next week when they went into Iowa City and lost 42-10 in a night game at Kinnick Stadium.  But that result is providing us extra line value on Wisconsin this week.  The Badgers have had two weeks to get healthy and focused on stopping Oregon.  I think we see one of their best efforts of the season Saturday night, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated number.

With the No. 1 ranked in the country comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  I took Maryland +25 as my 25* Big Ten Game of the Year at Oregon last week largely due to that reason.  Like Wisconsin, Maryland was coming off a bye and gave an 'all in' effort.  This was an 11-point game in the 4th quarter before Oregon tacked on a FG and a TD after a Maryland turnover in the final six minutes to turn it into a 39-18 misleading final.  Oregon only outgained Maryland by 74 yards.

I also faded Oregon last week because they were a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a hard-fought win at Michigan.  Now they will be playing for an 8th consecutive week!.  There has been a ton of travel involved especially of late as they have alternated home/road games.  They played Ohio State at home, then Purdue on the road, Illinois at home, then Michigan on the road, Maryland at home and now they have to fly back to the midwest to face Wisconsin.

Because of this tough travel schedule, the Ducks may be the single-most tired team in the country.  They also can afford a loss and still make the Big Ten Championship Game, so they aren't exactly 'all in' right now.  They would be able to beat Washington at home and still make the title game in their regular season finale, so knowing they have that to fall back on might not have them quite as motivated for this game.  I love the situation favoring the Badgers this week.  

Oregon also has two key playmakers on offense questionable to play in this game.  RB Jordan James (946 yards, 10 TD, 5.7/carry) only got one carry in the 2H against Maryland, and WR Tez Johnson (64 receptions, 649 yards, 8 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  He missed the Maryland game and may not be back in time for this one.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Ken Niomatalolo is doing great things here for the Spartans in his first season on the job.  The Spartans are 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS this season with their losses coming by 2 to Washington State, which is 8-1 this season and by 7 to Colorado State, which is expected to make the Mountain West Championship.

They also had a misleading 33-10 loss to Fresno State two games ago that has them undervalued still.  They were only outgained by 16 yards by Fresno State.  They had a bye week after that loss, and they responded with a 24-13 win at Oregon State as 3-point underdogs last week.  Now they have their sights set on upsetting Boise State at home this week.

This San Jose State offense is legit.  They average 6.5 yards per play which ranks 27th in the country.  Their passing offense ranks 5th at 332.3 yards per game, and Boise State can be thrown on.  They have one of the best receivers in the country in Nick Nash, who has 86 receptions for 1,156 yards and 13 TD.

Boise State is starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the 12-team playoff.  The Broncos were fortunate to escape with a 28-21 home win over Nevada as 22.5-point favorites last week.  San Jose State is better than Nevada, so getting 14 points with them at home here is a nice value.

I like the matchup for the Spartans.  To be able to compete with Boise State you have to be able to stop Ashton Jeanty and their rushing attack.  Well, San Jose State ranks 36th in the country allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.

San Jose State is a pass-heavy offense and the weakness of Boise State is their pass defense.  The Broncos rank 110th in the country allowing 247.1 passing yards per game and 104th allowing 7.8 yards per attempt.  The Spartans will never be out of this game with their ability to move the football through the air.  

The Broncos haven't been that impressive on the road this season.  They were in dog fights with UNLV and Georgia Southern and their lone road win by more than 11 points came by 21 at Hawaii, which was a 6-point game in the 4th quarter and a misleading final.  The Spartans are live underdogs this week.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on South Alabama/Louisiana OVER 58

Louisiana is quietly sitting at 8-1 this season with their lone loss to Tulane by 8.  The Rajin' Cajuns still feel like they are alive for the 12-team playoff, and they think they need style points from here on out.  They will look to run up the score if they can, which is a big reason why I am backing the OVER 58 in this game Saturday night against South Alabama.

Louisiana is riding an offense that ranks 25th in the country in scoring at 35.2 points per game, 12th in total offense at 457.1 yards per game and 5th at 7.0 yards per play.  They ran it up last week on Arkansas State in a 55-19 blowout that saw 74 combined points.  They have gone for at least 58 combined points in five of their last seven games now.

The Rajin' Cajuns should be able to name their number against a South Alabama defense that ranks 97th in total defense at 394.4 yards per game and 95th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  The Jaguars are coming off a pair of shootouts in a 34-30 loss to Georgia Southern and 64 combined points and a 46-17 win over ULM and 63 combined points.

This South Alabama offense has been humming when QB Gio Lopez has been healthy.  Lopez is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,891 yards with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 393 yards and 4 scores with 6.3 per carry.  He leads a South Alabama offene that ranks 21st in scoring at 35.6 points per game, 11th in total offense at 456.9 yards per game and 14th at 6.8 yards per play.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  I can see these teams trading scores with this being one of the most entertaining games of the weekend featuring two of the best offenses in the country that not too many people know about.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri/South Carolina UNDER 44.5

Missouri's offense has hit the skids without QB Brady Cook.  They have one of the worst backup QB situations in the country with Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne now starting in his place.  Let's just look at how poor this Missouri offense has been the last three weeks since Cook got injury against Auburn.

Missouri needed a 17-6 comeback in the 4th quarter to beat Auburn 21-17 for 38 combined points.  The Tigers were then shut out 34-0 at Alabama for 34 combined points.  And last week they managed to beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a game that was sitting at 10-9 entering the 4th quarter before all hell broke loose.

Oklahoma got a defensive TD with 2:00 left, Missouri scored a TD with 1:03 left, and Missouri scored the game-winning defensive TD on a 17-yard fumble recovery with 30 seconds left.  That misleading final is adding to the line value this week to back the UNDER.  Missouri only had 278 total yard and Oklahoma only had 257 total yards in that game.

Now Pyne and this hobbled Missouri offense must face a South Carolina defense playing about as well as any defense in the country this season.  The Gamecocks rank 12th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, 13th in total defense at 299.9 yards per game and 7th at 4.5 yards per play.  They stymied Diego Pavia which nobody else has been able to do this season.  They won that game 28-7 over Vanderbilt for 35 combined points.

South Carolina's offense leaves a lot to be desired, and Missouri can rely on its defense to at least be competitive for a while.  The Tigers rank 15th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and 11th in total defense at 294.9 yards per game.  I expect Missouri to try and slow this game to a crawl by snapping the ball as late as they can in the play clock because shortening the game is about the only chance they have to win it with Pyne at QB.  Pyne is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt on his 82 pass attempts this season.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games.  Given Missouri's circumstances offensively right now, I think that trend continues in this one.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -2.5

The Baylor buy signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 44.7 points per game and 564 yards per game in their three consecutive wins and covers.

Now Baylor is off a bye week and will come back with another big effort against West Virginia this week.  And while I'm high on Baylor right now, I'm equally low on West Virginia. I think this is a great time to 'sell high' on the Mountaineers.  

They are coming off two consecutive upset wins over Arizona and Cincinnati, which are two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in my opinion.  They beat Arizona by 5, which isn't impressive when you consider Arizona has lost five consecutive games now and is decimated by injuries.  The Wildcats' other three losses in their last four games came by 22 points or more.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati 31-24 on the road last week, but that was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  West Virginia had two defensive touchdowns and their offense only scored 17 points with 248 total yards.  Their defense gave up 436 yards to Cincinnati, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

Injuries are piling up for the Mountaineers with QB Garrett Greene questionable with a concussion, and their 2nd-leading receiver likely to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Even if they had both guys healthy I'd still like Baylor in this spot, so getting -2.5 is a discount.  If Greene is ruled out this line will balloon in Baylor's favor.

The Bears will be revenge-minded too after losing by exactly 3 points to West Virginia in each of their last two meetings.  The Bears are the better, healthier team this season and they are rested and ready to go off a bye.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* Louisville/Stanford ACC No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

Louisville is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in all games this season with 50 or more combined points in all nine games, including 58 or more combined points five times.  They have scored at least 24 points in every game this season despite the brutal schedule and rank 21st in scoring offense at 36.2 points per game, 18th in total offense at 449.6 yards per game and 9th at 6.9 yards per play.

The Cardinals will be able to name their number against a Stanford defense that ranks 122nd in scoring at 34.6 points per game, 110th at 412.9 yards per game and 122nd at 6.5 yards per play.  With Louisville ranked 19th in the playoff rankings this week, they still feel like they have a chance to make it.  They will feel like they need style points and won't take their foot off the gas.  It also makes me lean to Louisville -20.5, but I think the OVER is a better way to play it.

Stanford is coming off a 59-28 shootout loss at NC State.  They allowed 547 total yards to the Wolfpack.  They have now allowed at least 31 points in six of their nine games this season.  They gave up 40 to SMU, 49 to Notre Dame and 40 to Clemson.  I think Louisville tops 40 points in this one.

Now it's a question of whether or not Stanford can keep up, and I think they can.  They can at least get 20-plus in this one.  Louisville's defense has allowed at least 19 points in seven consecutive games now.  It's a very mediocre defense by Jeff Brahm standards.  And both teams rank in the top half of the country in tempo.

Stanford's offense has been much better with QB Ashton Daniels healthy, which he is right now.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes this season and is a dual-threat, rushing for 481 yards and a pair of scores while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Mobile QB's have posed a problem for Louisville's defense this season with five different quarterbacks rushing for at least 50 yards, and two topping 100 yards on the ground.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawaii/Utah State OVER 60

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies rank 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds and they have the worst defense in all of college football.  That combination has led them to going 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 59 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 74 or more in five of them.  The two opponents they faced that didn't see 74 combined points were Wyoming and Utah, who have atrocious offenses.

Utah State ranks 133rd in scoring defense at 42.3 points per game, 132nd in total defense at 496.2 yards per game and 130th at 6.8 yards per play.  Hawaii has played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and will be happy to get a reprieve here.  The Warriors should have their best offensive performance of the season Saturday.

Hawaii went toe-to-toe with a very good UNLV offense last week in windy conditions at home and lost 29-27.  They have a gutsy QB in Brayden Schager, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any MWC quarterback.  He has thrown for 2,467 yards with a 19-to-10 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 268 yards and 6 scores on the ground.  He is in line for his best game of the season against Utah State.

Hawaii also likes to play pretty fast ranking 45th in tempo at 25.2 seconds between snaps.  This total of 60 is actually pretty low for a game involving Utah State when you consider the Aggies have played four of their last five games with totals of 67 or higher.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 75, 82 and 73 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/California OVER 56

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team led by an offense that ranks 39th in scoring at 31.7 points per game and 25th in total offense at 442.8 yards per game.  The Orange rank 4th the country in passing at 353.8 yards per game and they are the most pass-heavy offense in the country ranking 1st at 48.3 attempts per game.  I like pass-heavy offenses for OVERS because incompletions stop the clock.

This Syracuse defense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks.  The Orange allowed 41 points to UNLV, 41 to Pittsburgh, 31 to a Virginia Tech team playing with a backup QB, and 37 to a Boston College team that played with two QB's in four of their last five games.  They have been forced to try and keep up in shootouts in all of those games because their defense has been so poor.

It won't get any easier this week against a Cal offense that has found its stride.  The Golden Bears hung 44 points and 478 total yards on Oregon State two games ago and then 46 points and 500 total yards on Wake Forest last week.  That was an absolute shootout as they gave up 36 points to the Demon Deacons for 82 combined points.  Keep in mind they were in a 39-38 shootout with Miami earlier this season for 77 combined points as well.

Both teams play faster than average as California ranks 43rd in tempo while Syracuse ranks 48th, so there will be more possessions than average in this game.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on FIU/Jacksonville State OVER 58.5

Jacksonville State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Gamecocks rank 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.8 seconds in Rich Rodriquez's up-tempo read-option scheme.  The OVER is 6-3 in all Jacksonville State games this season with 62 or more combined points in six of them.

This Jacksonville State offense is humming right now.  The Gamecocks rank 8th in the country in scoring offense at 39.2 points per game.  They have scored at least 42 points in five of their last six games overall.  This Jacksonville State defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 100th in scoring defense at 29.2 points per game and 102nd in total defense at 407.7 yards per game.

Jacksonville State played in a 44-37 (OT) shootout with LA Tech last week that saw 74 combined points at the end of regulation.  That's a very bad LA Tech offense they just allowed 37 points and 410 total yards to last week.  I think Florida International can find similar success against this Gamecocks defense.

I was impressed with this FIU offense in putting up 34 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago.  They also put up 438 total yards and have had a bye to put in some new wrinkles on offense.  QB Keyonte Jenkins threw for 338 yards and 4 TD in the win, and he has an absolute stud outside in Eric Rivers, who caught 11 balls for 295 yards and three scores in the win.  He now has 43 receptions for 876 yards and 8 TD on the season.  Jenkins is completing 61.5% of his passes with a 14-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.0 per attempt.

Florida International has faced a very weak schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced an offense as good as Jacksonville State since giving up 31 to Indiana in the season opener.  They also gave up 38 to FIU, 45 to Monmouth, 31 to Liberty and 30 to UTEP.  I expect Jacksonville State to get into the 40's and FIU to get at least 28 in this one.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Houston/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +1.5

First-year head coach Willie Fritz has the Houston Cougars playing their best football of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with three outright upsets over TCU 30-19 as 16-point road dogs, Utah 17-14 as 5-point home dogs and Kansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs.

The Cougars got a much-needed bye last week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks, and Fritz will have his team ready to pursue a bowl game coming out of the bye.  The Cougars sit at 4-5 on the season needing two more wins to get bowl eligible, so they will be looking at this line a must-win.

Houston has one of the best defenses in the country.  They rank 43rd in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game and 25th in total defense at 318.9 yards per game despite playing the 10th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  They are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in games started and finished by QB Zeon Chriss as he led the upsets of TCU, Utah and K-State.  Chriss gives them a dual-threat rushing for 294 yards and 2 TD.  He is also completing 69.1% of his passes with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

While the Cougars are on the rise under Fritz, the Arizona Wildcats are falling flat on their faces under first-year head coach Brent Brennan.  QB Noah Fifita is struggling mightily in the new system.  He has a 13-to-10 TD/INT ratio and fumble problems as well.  He is playing in front of a banged-up offensive line to boot.

But the biggest problem for the Wildcats is defense, where they have been without eight of 11 starters at different points of the season and most are season-ending injuries.  Arizona ranks 108th in scoring defense at 31.1 points per game, 94th in total defense at 393 yards per game and 98th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Arizona is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It started with a 28-22 home loss to Texas Tech as 5.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats followed it up with a 41-19 loss at BYU as 2.5-point dogs.  They were then blasted 34-7 as 2.5-point home favorites to Colorado.  They lost 31-26 as 5.5-point home favorites against a West Virginia team playing a backup QB two games ago.

But perhaps the most alarming result was the 56-12 loss at UCF as 6-point dogs last time out.  They were playing a UCF team starting a 3rd-string QB and still allowed 56 points and 602 total yards.  That effort just goes to show how rough a shape this defense is in right now.  UCF rushed for 308 yards and passes for 294 more.  

Houston wants to run the football and will be able to do so against this Arizona defense.  This will be one of the softest defenses the Cougars have gotten to face all season, and they were in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the year as a result.  I trust the Cougars to get the necessary stops as this Houston defense will be the best Arizona has seen since being held to a combined 30 points in two games against K-State and Utah.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* UCLA/Washington FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +3.5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye three weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota and Iowa at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed two weeks ago and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.  Then last week they upset Iowa 20-17 as 6.5-point dogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bruins outgained the Hawkeyes 414 to 265, or by 149 total yards.  But they threw two INT inside the Iowa 5-yard line to keep them in it.

Keep in mind that's the same Iowa team that Washington lost 40-16 to on the road.  That was the start of the downward spiral for the Huskies, who are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They also lost 31-17 at Indiana and their backup QB, and lost 35-6 at Penn State as 13-point dogs.  Even their lone win during this stretch was fluky beating USC 26-21 at home despite getting outgained 459 to 375 by the Trojans.

UCLA played last Friday and had a bye three weeks ago and has the rest advantage here because of it.  Washington has to travel all the way back home from Penn State on the East Coast after getting blasted 35-6 by the Nittany Lions on Saturday.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as Penn State outgained Washington 486 to 193, or by nearly 300 total yards.  Keep in mind UCLA only lost 27-11 at Penn State while only getting outgained 322 to 260, or by 62 total yards.

Washington didn't get home until 5 AM Sunday morning.  The Huskies will still be fatigued and won't have much time to prepare for UCLA on this short week.  The Bruins sit at 4-5 and motivated to get to a bowl game, so they won't have a letdown here.  I think UCLA is the better team at this point, so getting 3.5 points with them even factoring in home-field advantage for Washington is too much.  This line should be closer to PK or the Bruins favored.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* Wyoming/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Wyoming +10

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wyoming Cowboys.  They are just 2-7 SU this season, but they have a first-year head coach and will keep fighting.  They proved that last time out in a 49-45 win at 9-point road underdogs at New Mexico.  They have since had a bye week and bye weeks are most beneficial for first-year head coaches.

QB Kaden Anderson made his first career start at QB against New Mexico, and star RB Harrison Waylee saw his first action of the season in that win over New Mexico.  Anderson finished 20-of-29 passing for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while Waylee gained 170 rushing yards on 27 carries.  Jaylen Sargent had 186 receiving yards and a score.

Having Anderson at QB and Waylee back at RB isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Cowboys are a completely different team right now than they were up to this point.  They have also quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their three SU losses coming by 10, 2 and 3 points during this stretch, and the betting public still wants nothing to do with this team due to their poor SU record.

We'll 'sell high' on the Colorado State Rams.  The Rams have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are starting to get a lot of respect here as a double-digit favorite.  They have several misleading finals here recently that are providing us with some line value to bet against them.

Two games ago they beat New Mexico 17-6 despite allowing 453 total yards to the Lobos and getting outgained by 119 yards.  That was a minor miracle.  Last time out they beat Nevada 38-21 despite allowing 441 total yards and getting outgained by 114 yards.  They are getting away with murder with these wins and these box scores, and I think it comes to an end this week.

Colorado State will feel the pressure of knowing that if they win out they are in the MWC Championship Game.  They also had a bye last week, which I don't think is good for the Rams, who had a ton of momentum and didn't need a bye.  I don't think it will have been a productive bye week for them as they are feeling 'fat and happy' for two weeks.

Colorado State is averaging 365.1 yards per game on offense and allowing 408.2 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 43.1 yards per game.  This just isn't a very good Rams team, and the Cowboys are live underdogs tonight.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 ATS as well when you dig into the box scores.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants in their next game.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  Their 37-17 dismantling of Cincinnati on the road might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

I was on the Eagles -7 in their 28-23 win over the Jaguars two weeks ago.  It was probably my worst beat of the season.  The Eagles led 22-0 and were cruising until a fluke fumble by Saquan Barkley that was caused by the ground was returned for a TD.  The Jaguars got in the back door despite the Eagles outgaining them 447 to 215, or by 232 total yards.  Last week the Eagles made easy work of the Cowboys winning 34-6 on the road and outgaining them 348 to 146, or by 202 total yards.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  They recently got TE Dallas Goedert back from injury and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now on both sides of the football.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.

The Eagles are allowing just 198.8 yards per game in their last five games, which is unheard of in today's NFL.  The defense has allowed a total of three touchdowns in those five games.  The offense is averaging 380.6 yards per game during this same stretch, so they are outgaining opponents by 182 yards per game.

While the Eagles are fresh having already had their bye week plus blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday putting in little effort, this is a tired Washington Commanders team that hasn't had their bye week yet.  They have played three straight one-score games with their hail mary win against the Bears three weeks ago and their 27-22 win at the Giants two weeks ago, and those performances haven't aged well.  

The Commanders were in a dog fight last week in a 28-27 loss to the Steelers, which was also a very physical game.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Eagles this week.  They have three starting offensive linemen questionable, their starting RB questionable, two starters on D questionable, and K Austin Seibert out. I like this Commanders team and have bet them several times, but this is the spot to fade them as they are tired, on a short week, and with a first-year head coach and a rookie QB.  Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last six meetings with Washington with all five wins by 3 points or more.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

25* AAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on ECU/Tulsa O 61

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play with.  The Pirates rank 5th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  The OVER is 4-0 in ECU's last four games overall with 79, 73, 90 and 63 combined points.  

The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference.  After throwing for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple two games ago, he came back 343 yards and 5 TD against Florida Atlantic last week.  They have scored a total of 105 points in those two games and an average of 52.5 points per game.  But this is a poor ECU defense that has allowed 37 points per game and 440.8 yards per game in their last four games.

East Carolina will be able to name its number against this soft Tulsa defense.  The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 125th in total defense at 449.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.7 yards per play.

The OVER is 4-1 in Tulsa's last five games overall with 72 or more combined points three times.  It's largely due to the defense, which is allowing 45.0 points per game during this stretch.  They allowed 52 to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA and 59 to UAB.

Utah State transfer Cooper Legas has injected some life into this Tulsa offense as well.  He led the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 comeback win over UTSA two games ago with 333 passing yards and 5 TD as well as 46 rushing yards on 13 attempts.  Legas went for 230 passing yards and 2 TD in their 59-21 loss to UAB last time out.  They had 423 total yards in that game and probably should have scored more.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 69, 73, 64 and 56 combined points.  With the way these teams are built this season, I expect them to easily combine to top 61 points Thursday night.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* EMU/Ohio MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This has been a crazy week of good weather for these MAC weekday games, which is rare for mid-November.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no chance of precipitation for this start of this game between Eastern Michigan and Ohio Wednesday night.  This looks like a shootout relative to this 49.5-point total, and at the very least the total should be set in the 50's.

Eastern Michigan has gone up-tempo this season ranking 23rd in the country in seconds between snaps.  That move has propelled the Eagles to have one of the most improved offenses in the country.  The Eagles are scoring 29.2 points per game and averaging 392.1 yards per game with a balanced attack that averages 246 passing yards per game and 146 rushing.

Ohio is scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 383.2 yards per game.  The Bobcats average 6.0 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the MAC.  This Ohio offense is humming right now putting up 47 points against Buffalo and 41 against Kent State in their last two games coming in.  QB Parker Navarro is a dual-threat with 556 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry, and Northwestern transfer RB Anthony Tyus is a playmaker with 694 rushing yards in basically just seven games.

The Bobcats should be able to name their number against a soft Eastern Michigan defense that ranks 115th in the country in allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Eagles are allowing 31.8 points per game in conference play despite getting to face Akron, CMU and Kent State.  The OVER is 4-1 in EMU's last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in four of the five.  The OVER is 3-1 in Ohio's last four games with 50 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* WMU/Bowling Green MAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall with 56 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they travel to face Bowling Green.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 30th in the country in scoring offense at 33.3 points per game and 23rd at 6.5 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 123rd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game, 116th at 427.6 yards per game and 118th at 6.4 yards per play.

Bowling Green has a balanced offense that averages 5.9 yards per play against a brutal schedule that features Penn State and Texas A&M in non-conference.  This BG offense put up 41 points on a solid Toledo defense two games ago.  I fully expect one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against Western Michigan in what will be a shootout with very few stops.  The forecast looks good with no wind or precipitation, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ball State/Buffalo OVER 53.5

Ball State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season.  They have a respectable offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the country.  They rank 132nd in scoring at 38.9 points per game, 129th in total defense at 461.3 yards per game and 134th at 7.2 yards per play.

Buffalo runs an up-tempo offense that ranks 33rd in the country in seconds per play.  The Bulls have scored 30, 41 and 41 points in three of their last four games and should be able to name their number on this Ball State defense.  The Bulls rank 97th in scoring defense allowing 29.0 points per game and 105th in total defense at 408.7 yards per game.  The Cardinals should be able to keep pace.

The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls' last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in each of their last three games.  The forecast looks good for a shootout with no wind or precipitation, which is rare for these midweek MAC games in November.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50.5

Having a healthy Tua Tagovailoa on the field makes all the difference for this Miami offense.  That has played out the last two weeks as they put up 27 points and 377 total yards against the Cardinals in his return two weeks ago, and then 27 points and 373 total yards against the Buffalo Bills last week.

Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense as well.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

Given the current health of both of these offenses, I expect both to have their way with these suspect opposing defenses.  The Dolphins just gave up 28 points to the Cardinals and 30 points to the Bills in their last two games.  The Rams have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine games, including 24 or more six times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Dolphins/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles ML -130

I've backed the Rams with success in each of their last two games and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  Having a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua makes all the difference for this Rams offense.  Kupp and Nacua returned two weeks ago to lead the Rams to a 30-20 win over the Vikings behind 386 total yards.  They also put up 26 points last week on the Seahawks despite Nacua getting ejected in the 1H.  He will be back this week, and all four of these guys are healthy.

This Los Angeles defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Rams have held their last three opponents to an average of 18.3 points per game.  They held the Vikings to just 276 total yards in their last home game which is no small feat considering all of their weapons.  I like the way this Los Angeles defense is trending much more than that of the Dolphins.

Yes, the Dolphins have a much better offense with Tua Tagovailoa back and healthy, but they still managed to lose their last two games.  They lost 28-27 at home to Arizona in his return two weeks ago, and they lost 30-27 at Buffalo last week.  That game against Buffalo was really their 'last stand' in trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  They now sit at just 2-6 on the season, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

I like the mindset of this Rams team a lot more right now.  They gutted out two huge wins against the Vikings and Seahawks the last two weeks to improve to 4-4 on the season.  They now trail the Cardinals by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the NFC West.  The Cardinals are underdogs to the Jets this week, so they could find themselves in 1st place with a win.  The Rams also have a huge advantage at head coach with Sean McVay over Mike McDaniels.  Bet the Rams on the Money Line Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Texans OVER 48

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses since losing by far their best defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson.  Their defense hasn't totally been exposed yet due to circumstance, but they will get exposed by the Houston Texans tonight and will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout indoors in perfect conditions.

The Lions rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.2 points per game and 4th averaging 6.3 yards per play.  But defensively they rank just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

The Texans will be without their best pass rusher in Will Anderson.  The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.  They will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Detroit Lions are going to be completely contained.  This is just a very low total for a game involving these two teams in their current state right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Texans +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions.  They have been covering machines since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell teams up.  But now you are paying a tax to back them this week as they are 5-point road favorites on the opener against the Houston Texans, which I grabbed Sunday night.  I still like them down to the current line of +3.5 as I think the Texans can win this game outright.

While the Lions have a great offense, they have a defense that has been exposed due to all their injuries, it just hasn't exactly shown up on the scoreboard yet.  Detroit ranks just 22nd in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed and 24th at 5.9 yards per play.  Not only are they without their most important defender in DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are also without LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Emmanuel Moseley, and they have six defensive linemen on IR.  That's why they traded for DE Za'Darius Smith, and he isn't even sure to play since it came on such short notice.

Three games ago the Lions allowed 383 yards to the Vikings.  Two games ago they allowed 416 total yards to what was a previously dead Tennessee offense.  And last week despite playing in a downpour all game, they allowed 411 total yards to the Packers.  They have been exposed as far as teams moving the football at will on them, and more times than not teams are going to turn those yards into points.

I'm 'buying' on this Houston Texans offense this week.  They already have a great running game with Joe Mixon, and now they should get Nico Collins back from injury this week, and he means everything to CJ Stroud and this offense.  He was officially activated to the 53-man roster on Saturday.  Collins had 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD in just five games this season.  They also got good news on Tank Dell as he is good to go as well.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Lions, who sit in 1st place in the NFC North and  1st place in the NFC after a huge 24-14 win at Green Bay last week.  They also beat the Vikings and the Cowboys on the road recently.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and ready to get knocked off their pedestal.  It was a misleading win over the Packers to boot because they were outgained by 150 yards by the Packers.  But the difference in the game was a bad pick-6 by a hobbled Jordan Love when he was trying to avoid a sack in the rain.

The spot is a great one for the Texans.  They are motivated coming off a road loss to the Jets, and that was on Thursday Night Football last week.  So they have had a mini-bye to get healthy and refocused, and they needed to get healthy especially on offense at receivers and along the offensive line.  They should be fully healthy on defense as well with the exception of DE Will Anderson.  I love the spot for them this week.  Bet the Texans Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Commanders OVER 44

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in scoring at 29.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 392.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't seen an offense as good as Washington yet.

But the Commanders have a leaky defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They traded for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he isn't going to play this week due to a hamstring injury.  The Steelers should be able to keep pace with the Commanders in a shootout Sunday.

I'm 'buying' on this Pittsburgh offense with Russell Wilson.  The Steelers have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall, the last two the most impressive with Wilson at the helm.  He led them to a 37-15 win over the Jets and 52 combined points and followed it up with a 26-18 win over the Giants and 44 combined points.

The Steelers had 409 total yards against a very good Jets' defense.  Wilson threw for 264 yards and 2 TD while opening things up for Najee Harris, who rushed for 102 yards and a score.  The Steelers had another 426 total yards against the Giants last time out.  Wilson threw for 278 yards and a score and Harris rushed for 114 yards in the win.

Washington and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in seven of its nine games this season.  This total of 44 is too low for a game involving the Commanders, especially when you consider just how much better this Pittsburgh offense has been with Wilson at QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +9

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season and the last unbeaten team remaining in the NFL.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We have seen that play out in recent weeks as the Chiefs haven't been able to cover these large numbers.

The Chiefs beat a decimated, struggling Raiders team 27-20 on the road as 8.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  Last week they needed OT to beat an even more decimated Bucs team that was missing their top three receivers.  They won 30-24 (OT) as 8.5-point favorites.

Now the Chiefs are on a short week after playing on Monday and a tired team coming off an OT game.  Teams coming off OT games who are playing on 8 or fewer days' rest are 107-140 SU & 108-136-3 ATS over the last decade.  Teams playing on just six days of rest coming off an OT game on MNF are 17-21 SU & 15-23 ATS during this same time frame.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Denver Broncos coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league.  It was a bit of a misleading loss as the Broncos consistently marched into Baltimore territory but didn't get much out of it.  They were only outgained by 77 yards by the Ravens.

Keep in mind the Broncos had gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games prior to losing to Baltimore with their lone loss coming by 7 points to the Chargers, who were off a bye week and much healthier.  Four of their five wins during this stretch came by 14 points or more.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in Kansas City, who they have played very tough in recent meetings.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with three of the four losses coming by 6 points or less.

Bo Nix is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.  Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS in road/neutral games as a head coach.  Payton is also 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog.  The Chiefs have been terrible as a favorite of -7 or more in the Mahomes era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and they aren't going to be all that motivated this week as they are 'fat and happy' at 8-0 right now.  They also have a huge game against the Bills on deck next week that they could be looking ahead to.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers -6

This is an eerily similar spot to last year when the 49ers had lost three straight games going into their bye week thanks to injuries.  It was one of my biggest plays of the season on the 49ers last year as they were getting healthy coming out of their bye getting Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all back from injury.  The 49ers delivered with a 34-3 win at Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

Now the 49ers return from their bye week expected to get back three of their best offensive weapons in McCaffrey, Deebo and JaJuan Jennings.  That's big because they lost WR Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury.  Jennings was making a bunch of plays before going down with injury, and CMC is worth about as much to the spread as any RB in the NFL.  Deebo does what he does making plays at receiver and out of the backfield.

The healthy 49ers team is a dangerous one, and they will be as healthy as they have been at any point this season coming out of their bye week.  I believe they can beat anybody in their current state, and I certainly think they'll make easy work of this short-handed Tampa Bay Bucs team that is not only extremely banged up, but also at a big rest disadvantage.

The Bucs will have to try and get back up off the mat on a short week after losing in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.  They gave it a valiant effort, but came up just short against the defending champs.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and their defense has to be gassed after the Chiefs got the ball first in OT and matriculated the ball down the field for the game-winning score.

The Bucs haven't gotten a bye yet this season and are a tired team with the injuries piling up.  They have an extremely suspect defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 39th in total defense at 386.7 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Bucs have allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five games.

While the Bucs have been short-handed on defense due to injuries for most of the season, the offense is in even worse shape right now injury-wise.  They lost their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans two weeks ago.  Godwin is out for the season and Evans is unlikely to return this week.  No. 3 receiver Jalen McMillan missed the game Monday and is questionable to return.  No. 5 receiver Sterling Shepard is questionable.  They could be without four of their top five receivers, plus QB Baker Mayfield misses practice on Wednesday with a toe injury, though I expect he will go.

With all these injuries, it's no wonder the Bucs are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against the short-handed Saints.  It's going to get worse before it gets better until they get some of these key guys back from injury.  I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive against a healthy, rested and motivated San Francisco team this week.  

The 49ers are 4-4 right now and chasing the Cardinals in a tight NFC West race.  They have no margin for error now.  But despite all their injuries up to this point, the 49ers still have some of the best numbers in the NFL.  They are 2nd in total offense at 412.4 yards per game and 10th in total defense at 314.8 yards per game.  They are nearly outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the season.  They really should be 6-2 or better right now, but their 4-4 record has them undervalued.  

Road favorites off a bye have been a huge money maker for years in the NFL.  Road favorites off a bye have covered the spread 60.4% of the time since 2004.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS thus far this season, and they will remain perfect courtesy of a San Francisco blowout in this one.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* UCF/ASU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The UCF Knights are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 28th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  Gus Malzahn has always been known for his up-tempo offenses, and he has this UCF offense rolling now that he handed over coordinator duties and fired his defensive coordinator.

Amazingly, UCF has been through three different starting quarterbacks, but it looks like they should have been starting Dylan Rizk the entire time.  He came in at the end of the BYU game two weeks ago and completed 6-of-10 passes for 102 yards and a TD to close out that game.  Malzahn has been missing a QB that can actually throw the ball all season, and he finally has one in Rizk, who is also a dual-threat.

Rizk got his 1st start last week and completed 20-of-25 passes for 294 yards and 3 TD while also rushing for 55 yards on 9 carries in a 56-12 win over Arizona.  He led this high-powered UCF offense to 602 total yards against Arizona in the win.  This offense is much more versatile with Rizk who can actually complete a forward pass moving forward.

It's amazing the success this UCF offense has had without that being the case to this point.  They still rank 10th in total offense at 471.1 yards per game and 10th at 6.9 yards per play largely due to a rushing attack that ranks 2nd in the country at 272.3 yards per game.  Having the threat of a pass will actually open up the running game for electric RB BJ Harvey (1,201 yards, 16 TD, 7.0/carry) even more moving forward.

Arizona State has a better offense than it gets credit for this season averaging 417 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Sun Devils have great balance averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing.  They average 31.1 points per game on the season.

The Sun Devils are coming off a 42-21 win at Oklahoma State and 63 combined points.  They racked up 529 total yards with QB Sam Leavitt making his return from injury.  Leavitt threw for 304 yards and 3 TD in the win.  They may need to rely on him more if RB Cam Skattebo can't go as he is questionable after suffering an injury last week.  But ASU being more pass-heavy would only benefit the OVER even more.

The OVER is 7-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in seven of their nine games.  The OVER is 4-3-1 in all Arizona State games this season with 52 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland +25

I always like fading the No. 1 team in the country in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Oregon has that distinction this week, and with that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  I think Oregon is inflated as a 25-point favorite over Maryland this week.

The Ducks are feeling 'fat and happy' now sitting at 9-0 and coming off a 21-point win over Michigan, covering as 14.5-point favorites only after a TD in the final seconds when they could have kneeled.  That wasn't normal for Dan Lanning who has been more than content with taking the air out of the ball in the 2H of games this season.

While we'll 'sell high' on the No. 1 ranked team in the country, we'll 'buy low' on the Terrapins at the same time.  They are coming off a bad 48-23 loss at Minnesota last time out.  You could see it coming because this was a tired Maryland team playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.

But now the Terrapins finally got their bye last week, and they will come back refreshed and motivated to give Oregon a run for its money this week.  Keep in mind this is a Maryland team that played Indiana as tough as anyone has this season on the road.  They only lost 42-28 to the Hoosiers, and that loss is aging very well considering the Hoosiers are blasting everyone else.

Now it's Oregon that is the tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week and coming off a physical game against Michigan.  This looks like their letdown spot, especially with an even bigger game on deck at Wisconsin next week.

Maryland is outgaining opponents by more than 50 yards per game this season.  The Terrapins only allow 105.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, ranking in the Top 20 in run defense in both categories.  They will be able to stop the run in this game in the 2H to get the ball back for underrated QB Billy Edwards.

Edwards is completing 68.4% of his passes for 2,314 yards with a 13-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  He has two elite receivers to get the ball to in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 118 receptions for 1,394 yards and 9 TD on the season.  I expect the rejuvenated Terrapins to keep coming for four quarters and to stay within this inflated 25-point spread.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Jacksonville State -10

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games while outscoring their opponents 234 to 85 in those five games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 87 points in those five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last five games by double-digits, and now I think they'll make it 6 in a row against an overmatched Louisiana Tech team Saturday.  Jacksonville State got a much-needed bye last week after playing four consecutive weeks.  They will come back rejuvenated and ready to chase down a C-USA title currently sitting tied for 1st with WKU at 4-0 within the conference but only one game ahead of Sam Houston State.

LA Tech is just 3-5 SU this season despite playing one of the softest schedules in the entire country.  In fact, the Bulldogs' schedule ranks 152nd in the country, which means there are about 20 FBS teams that have played a tougher schedule than they have.  That makes their 3-5 record that much worse.

Jacksonville State ranks 15th in the country in scoring offense at 38.6 points per game, 12th in total offense at 464.9 yards per game and 8th at 7.1 yards per play.  The Gamecocks just keep coming under Rich Rodriquez ranking 11th in tempo as well, so they get a lot of possessions.

LA Tech doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Gamecocks.  Offense is the Bulldogs' biggest weakness as they rank 112th in scoring at 21.2 points per game, 105th in total offense at 344.9 yards per game and 124th at 4.9 yards per play.  If they get behind, which they will, they don't have the capability to catch up.  Bet Jacksonville State Saturday.

20* Georgia/Ole Miss ABC No-Brainer on Ole Miss +3

The Ole Miss Rebels are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with some of the best numbers in the country.  Numbers even better than Georgia, which makes me believe the wrong team is favored here catching 3 points at home with the Rebels.

Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the country in total offense at 554.0 yards per game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play with the usual elite Lane Kiffin offense.  But it's the defense that makes this team different than in year's past. The Rebels only allow 317.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the country.  They are outgaining their opponents by 236 yards per game and a ridiculous 3.3 yards per play.

Let's just compare that to Georgia.  The Bulldogs averaged 431 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 295 yards per game and 4.7 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play, and while elite, that's about half as much as Ole miss is outgaining its opponents by this season.

Georgia QB Carson Beck gets too much respect and is having a terrible season.  He has a 10-to-11 TD/INT ratio in his last five games coming in.  The Bulldogs were lucky DJ Lagway got hurt in the 1H against Florida last week because the Gators had them on the ropes.  That game was tied 20-20 with under 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter to show just how vulnerable this Georgia team really is right now.

The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU but just 2-6 ATS and they have been overvalued for a few seasons now.  They will slip up this week, and Kiffin will finally get over the hump and beat an elite team because he finally has the horses to get it done.  Ole Miss is the better team this season and that will show on the field Saturday afternoon.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans sit at 5-3 on the season one win away from bowl eligibility.  They come off their bye week and off their worst loss of the season to Fresno State.  It was a misleading loss as the Spartans lost by 23 despite only getting outgained by 22 yards.

Now the Spartans come back as 3-point dogs this week at Oregon State when I believe they should be favored and will win this game outright.  Their other two losses came on the road by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State, and those losses look even better now with Colorado State in line to make the MWC Championship Game, and Washington State sitting at 7-1 SU this season with their only loss to Boise State.

As much as I like this San Jose State team, this is as much of a fade of Oregon State as anything.  The Beavers are in limbo right now without a conference and it looks like they packed it in in their last game.  They lost 44-7 at California while giving up 478 yards to the Bears and only managing 200 total yards themselves.  They got outgained by 278 yards.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Beavers the rest the way.

And while the Spartans are as healthy as pretty much anyone in the country right now coming out of their bye week, the Beavers have three players out and another eight questionable on their injury report.  They especially have a ton of injuries on defense which explains how they could give up 44 points and 478 yards to Cal.  This is a great SJSU run-and-shoot offense that will take advantage as well.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Michigan/Indiana CBS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -14

The books just can't set these Indiana spreads high enough, and they haven't set it high enough this week either.  When a team has a turnaround like Indiana has it takes the books and the betting public a long time to catch up.  The Hoosiers are legitimately one of the best teams in the country and nobody wants to believe it.

Indiana is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and would be 9-0 ATS against the opening line as they failed to cover the closing line in Week 1.  Their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 14 points or more.  They are covering the spread by an average of 17.2 points per game in their nine games this season.  There is nothing fluky about it when you dig into the numbers.

The Hoosiers rank 2nd in the country in scoring offense at 46.6 points per game, 8th in total offense at 476.2 yards per game and 5th at 7.1 yards per play.  They rank 7th in scoring defense at 13.7 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 261 yards per game and 3rd at 4.3 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 33 points per game and outgaining them by 215 yards per game and 2.8 yards per play.

If you just changed the name of their team to Ohio State and gave them the same numbers, they would be favored by 24-plus points against Michigan.  But the Hoosiers remain undervalued this week.  QB Kurtis Roarke returned from injury last week and proved he is just fine in leading Indiana to a 47-10 beat down over Michigan State at home.  That's the same Michigan State team that took Michigan to the wire a few weeks ago.  Roarke threw 4 TD passes in the win.

Michigan had its 'all in' game last week against Oregon in a 38-17 defeat at home.  The Ducks held the Wolverines to just 11 first downs and 270 total yards, while rackng up 470 yards against what was supposed to be a good Michigan defense.  I think Indiana can dominate Michigan just as well as Oregon did, and they are laying 14 at home whereas Oregon was laying 14.5 on the road.

Offense has been the problem for Michigan all season.  They just don't have a QB who can throw an accurate forward pass, and their talent at receiver is embarrassing.  The Wolverines rank 116th in scoring at 21.0 points per game, 127th in total offense at 299.4 yards per game and 128th in passing at 134.3 yards per game.

Michigan relies heavily on running the football, and that makes this a terrible matchup for them.  The Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 72.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per carry.  When the Wolverines fall behind, which they will, they have no way of catching up.  Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has no problem running up the score, and he would love to make a statement here against the defending champs.  I also like the fact that Indiana has a bye on deck next week so will be 'all in' this week.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -3

I was on NC State last week as 9.5-point favorites over Stanford.  They crushed the Cardinal 59-28 covering the spread by more than 20 points.  I'm back on NC State for many of the same reasons this week.

The Wolfpack are undervalued right now after starting the season just 1-7 ATS.  They played a brutal schedule having to play eight consecutive weeks to open the season.  They finally got a bye last week to regroup, and now they remain fresh and ready to go this week off that blowout win over Stanford.

It's also a motivated NC State team sitting at 5-4 and looking for that 6th win to get bowl eligible.  I saw 'buy' signs on this team in their final two games going into the bye, especially with freshman QB CJ Bailey.

Three games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up two weeks ago, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded.  And last week Bailey threw for 234 yards and 3 TD in leading the Wolfpack to 59 points against Stanford in that blowout win.

While I think it's a great spot for NC State, I think it's a terrible spot for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off consecutive frustrating losses to SMU by 1 in OT two weeks ago and then 53-31 to Miami last week.  They were fortunate to even be competitive with SMU considering the Mustangs were -6 in turnovers and still managed to win.

But last week the Blue Devils had the unbeaten Hurricanes on the ropes actually leading that game 28-17 in the 3rd quarter.  That's when it all fell apart.  Miami outscored Duke 36-3 in the final 22 minutes and turned on the after burners to not only win by 22, but actually cover the 21-point spread.

That was a tough beat for Duke bettors, and it's a very tough spot for Duke now.  They have to try and get back up off the mat off those two frustrating losses that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They sit at 6-3 and already bowl eligible, and I question how motivated they'll be the rest of the way now.  

This is the obvious flat spot for them, and I know they won't be nearly as motivated to beat NC State as they were to try and take down SMU and Miami the last two weeks.  I also question how much they'll have left in the tank playing for a 4th consecutive week with the last three games all going down to the wire.  This has Wolfpack blowout written all over it.  Bet NC State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UConn/UAB OVER 56.5

The UAB Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  The main reason is a poor defense that ranks 125th in the country allowing 35.5 points per game.  They also rank 33rd in tempo playing much faster than average.  The OVER is 5-1 in UAB's last six games overall with 54 or more combined points in all six games, including 59 or more combined points in five of them.

This UAB offense has come to life since the switch to Jalen Kitna at quarterback.  He threw for 239 yards and a TD in a 71-20 loss to Tulane four games ago, 242 yards and a TD in a 44-10 loss at Army three games ago, 384 yards and 2 TD in a 35-25 loss to USF two games ago and 404 yards and 6 TD in a 59-21 win over Tulsa last week.

UConn isn't known for a high-powered offense, but the Huskies will have one of their best outputs of the season this week against UAB.  They played a Georgia State team with a similar profile with a decent offense and poor defense last week.  They won 34-27 for 61 combined points.  The Huskies also play faster than average ranking 47th in tempo, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College -1.5

I love the spot for the Boston College Eagles this week.  They sit at 4-4 on the season and in desperate need of a win this week if they want to make a bowl game.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and they were a very tied team having to play eight consecutive weeks to start the season.

That's why the bye couldn't have come at a better time last week to allow the Eagles to rest, get healthy and refocus for the stretch run under first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.  Bye weeks are always more beneficial for first-year head coaches, and I expect O'Brien to get the most out of his team in these two weeks.

The Orange bounced back from a 41-13 loss at Pittsburgh with a 38-31 (OT) home win over Virginia Tech last week.  But that was a Virginia Tech team missing it's starting QB and it's starting RB, and the Orange still needed OT to put the Hokies away.  They had to use a lot of energy to come back from a 21-3 deficit in the 2H just to force OT, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank for BC this week.

I have not been impressed with Syracuse on the road this season despite their 2-1 SU record.  They had that 28-point loss at Pitt, and their 24-17 win at NC State was very misleading.  They benefited from being +3 in turnovers in that game.  Their 44-41 (OT) win at UNLV was also fortunate.

Syracuse QB Kyle McCord consistently puts the ball in danger with 12 interceptions thrown already this season.  Boston College has 11 interceptions on defense and is a ball-hawking unit, and I think turnovers in their favor will be the difference, plus the fact that they are the more rested, prepared team coming off a bye week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 67.5

New Mexico is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Lobos are 7-2 OVER in all games this season with 64 or more combined points in seven of their nine games this season.  That includes 94, 95, 89 and 90 combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

Bronco Mendenhall has brought his up-tempo offense to New Mexico as the Lobos rank 30th in tempo.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.8 points per game, 7th in total offense at 480.1 yards per game and 18th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance rushing for 231 yards per game and throwing for 249 yards per game.  QB Devon Dampier is a stud, throwing for 2,243 yards and 10 TD while also rushing for 13 scores.

But this New Mexico defense is a dumpster fire.  The Lobos rank 132nd in scoring defense allowing 40.8 points per game, 131st in total defense at 492.3 yards per game and 132nd at 7.1 yards per play.  They recently found themselves in shootouts with two of the worst offensive teams in the country, which shows how bad their defense really is. They beat Air Force 52-37 and lost to Wyoming 49-45.

Sean Lewis brought his flash-fast offense to San Diego State.  The Aztecs are indeed playing fast, ranking 16th in the country in tempo at 23.6 seconds in between snaps.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  And while it has been an up-and-down season for this SDSU offense, they are in line for their best performance of the season just like previously dead Wyoming and AF offenses.

The OVER is 3-1 in San Diego State's last four games overall with the lone under going under by 1.5 points.  They are coming off a 56-24 loss to Boise State last Friday that saw 80 combined points.  This thing should sail OVER the number again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Iowa/UCLA FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +5

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so important that they got a bye two weeks ago to recover.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

The Bruins came out of their bye refreshed last week and it showed, upsetting Nebraska 27-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  There was nothing fluky about that result as the Bruins outgained the Huskes 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play in the game.

A big reason I'm backing the Bruins again this week is because they match up well with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes need to be able to run the football to be successful, and the Bruins are one of the best defenses in the country at stopping the run, which is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  UCLA ranks 12th in the country allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game and 18th at 3.3 yards per carry.

Iowa made the switch to dual-threat Brendan Sullivan at quarterback finally two games ago in the 2H of their 40-14 win over Northwestern.  They stuck with him for their 42-10 home win over Wisconsin last week.  Those two results have the Hawkeyes overvalued now, and with a couple games of film on him, I expect the Bruins to come up with the proper game plan to slow the Hawkeyes down this week.

Iowa hasn't seen many QB's as good as Ethan Garbers of UCLA, and the weakness of this Iowa defense is their pass defense.  Iowa State, Michigan State and Ohio State all had success throwing the football on them.  Garbers is completing 65% of his passes for 1,703 yards with 10 touchdowns this season despite the brutal schedule.  He has a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games, wins over Rutgers and Nebraska.

Iowa hasn't had any success under Kirk Ferentz on the West Coast, and this is a tough travel spot for them on a short week.  Bet UCLA Friday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on OVER 52

The Baltimore Ravens are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They are 8-1 OVER in all games this season with 45 or more combined points in all nine games, including 51 or more combined points in five consecutive games.

The Ravens have one of the best offenses in NFL history.  They rank 2nd in scoring offense at 31.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 445.9 yards per game and 1st at 7.3 yards per play.  To average 6.5 yards per play is elite in the NFL, and they are averaging way more than that despite being a run-heavy team averaging 5.9 per carry on 33 attempts per game.

Teams can continue to come back on the Ravens because the weakness of their team is their secondary.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL against the pass, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game.  They are also 28th allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

Now they face a pass-heavy Cincinnati Bengals offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game.  Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 TD in leading the Bengals to a 41-24 win over the Raiders last week that saw 65 combined points.

Baltimore won 41-38 (OT) for 79 combined points in an absolute shootout against the Bengals in their first meeting this season.  The Ravens racked up 520 total yards on this soft Cincinnati defense and will have another big game in the rematch.  Burrow threw for 392 yards and 5 TD to go toe-for-toe with Lamar Jackson and company in that first meeting.  The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 51 or more combined points in all three.  It will be more of the same here.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* FAU/ECU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57.5

This East Carolina offense has taken off in recent weeks to match the fast pace they play at.  The Pirates rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.

The OVER is 3-0 in ECU's last three games overall with a 55-24 loss to Charlotte for 79 combined points, a 45-28 loss to Army for 73 combined points and a 58-34 win over Temple for 90 combined points.  The switch to Kevin Houser at QB has made a big difference, and he just threw for 269 yards and 5 TD against Temple last time out.

The FAU Owls are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  They lost 41-37 to North Texas for 78 combined points, lost 38-24 to UTSA for 62 combined points and lost 44-21 to USF for 65 combined points.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and both offenses should have their way in this one.  FAU is allowing 41 points per game and 498 yards per game in its last three games.  East Carolina is allowing 44.7 points per game and 454.7 yards per game in its last three games.

Florida Atlantic also prefers to play fast ranking 42nd in the country in tempo.  So this game will see a ton of possessions with ECU ranking 4th in tempo leading the way and controlling the pace playing at home.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's, no wind and only 14% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NIU/Western Michigan OVER 51.5

Western Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Broncos are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  It will be more of the same tonight as they host Northern Illinois.

Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the MAC ranking 28th in the country in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game and 24th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Broncos also have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 33.8 points per game, 119th at 429.6 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play.

Northern Illinois has a very good, balanced offense that is averaging 397.1 yards per game this season.  The Huskies are in line for their best offensive output of the season tonight against this suspect WMU defense.  

I expect the Broncos to keep pace behind arguably the best QB in the MAC in Hayden Wolff, who completes 69% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  RB Nixon (7.2 YPC, 10 TD) is also tough to tame.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week.

We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch.  He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season.  Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL.  Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco.

The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season.  They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week.  Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks.  Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw.

The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL.  They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays.  And now even more reinforcements are on the way.

The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game.  TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well.  Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD.  This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out.  They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games.  The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season.  They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot.  This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1.

It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November.  But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota.  This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night.  Bet the OVER in this game.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1

I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings.  I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons.

They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1.  They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense.  I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go.

As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much.  Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs.  So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.  They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest.  They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week.

The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf.  Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury.  There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football.

The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories.  They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week.  The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week.  Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5

I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play.  I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since.  I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored.

Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors.  Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors.  Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.  Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements.

The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week.  They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns.  They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.

While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season.  This is the game his loss is finally felt.  They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez.

The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries.  They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love.

Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries.  Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy.  They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since.  Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6.

The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game.  Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards.

The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago.  They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards.  And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch.  They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards.  Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke.

The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith.  But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team.  The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games.

While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL.  They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London.  They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers.  But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss.

The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers.  They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury.  Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week.  They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week.  And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week.

So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries.  And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.

The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo.  They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London.  I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42

The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week.  There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well.

This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks.  They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert.  They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert.

I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker.  They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week.  He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett.  Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable.

Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense.  The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore.  Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception.

Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season.  Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't.  That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is.  But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable.  They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.  Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them.

I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week.  Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out.  

I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time.  This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams.  We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3

Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season.  They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season.

Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season.  Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated.  Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did.  They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game.

Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week.  Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season.  They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago.  Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards.

TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played.  The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech.  They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU.

TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week.  This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well.  And that give these teams a recent common opponent.  Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago.  No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now.

There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU.  The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense.  Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense.

Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers.  I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11

The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.  But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season.  That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss.

Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in.  They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army.  But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team.

The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish.  Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week.

Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years.  I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him.  There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team.

Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one.  The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return.  They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game.

Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game.  Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14.  They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights.  Navy will have similar success and win this one going away.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7

For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point.  The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover.  Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska.

UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road.  The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye.

I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska.  After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs.  I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State.

Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games.  It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be.  The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here.

There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value.  The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of.  

The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule.  They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season.  UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright.  Bet UCLA Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17

Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener.  It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season.  The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games.  I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result.

Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards.  They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs.  They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards.  They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively.

The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice.  They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game.

Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries.  He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for.  The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn.

I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season.  They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement.  But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week.  And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team.  Bet Florida Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130

The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago.  They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke.  They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward.

North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week.  They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards.  I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game.  The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year.  I question how much they care about finishing this season strong.

I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami.  If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them.

Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled.  Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%.  There's just no answer on their roster.  The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play.

UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game.  Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country.  UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game.  

FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense.  I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result.  Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57

Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown.  UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th.  Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one.

UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game.  The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now.  They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out.

Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game.  The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games.  They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them.

The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain.  These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5

I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week.  They are exactly the type of team I like to back.  They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued.

Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense.  The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country.  It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn.

But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs.  They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover.  They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points.

Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs.  This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game.

While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season.  This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback.

But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks.  They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas.

Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home.  It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed.  Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards.  And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game.

Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning.  I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either.  The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them.  

I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read.  The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week.  They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.  But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week.

Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week.  Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss.  In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory.

After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern.  While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week.

The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa.  They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams.  They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin.  They have one of the worst offenses in the country.  They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game.  Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game.  I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season.

The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye.  That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles.

Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs.  That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford.

Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now.  The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive.  They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU.  The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest.  But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC.

The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5

The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year.  They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff.  I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points.

San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis.  He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left.  The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State.

That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive.  They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team.  They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards.  They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week.

There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night.  The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin.  They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State.  I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one.  Bet San Diego State Friday.

20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK

The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them.  I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it.

The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate.  Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum.  That's why they are changing kickers this week.  Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.

The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots.  They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them.

While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense.  They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week.  Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed.  Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside.

The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets.  CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks.  He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers.  Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season.

The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game.  With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season.  Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme.  

Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long.  I expect him and the Jets to get right this week.  Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots.  This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled.  Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot.  

The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division.  The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season.  Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15

The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17.

But that was a very misleading final against Navy.  Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD.  The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards.  Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards.

That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis.  The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss.  Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week.  This value is too good to pass up again.

I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games.  Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites.  Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites.  They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed.  

Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday.  They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them.  Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave.  Bet Charlotte Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5

Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now.  The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games.  They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games.  Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game.

Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU.  The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff.  With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to.

The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin.

It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites.  Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season.  They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty.

Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice.  I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up.  Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it.

New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams.  Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51.  Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season.  Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday.

15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5

New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football.  They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th.

I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out.  They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs.

Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days.  It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season.  They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson.

Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season.  Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not.  I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight.

This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast.  Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is.  New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game.  FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6

The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season.  I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it.

While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road.  They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time.  They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game.

Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh.  While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week.

The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week.  Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week.

But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least.  The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play.  Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson.  The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again.

The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week.  They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas.  Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful.

The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig.  Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line.  They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively.

Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week.  The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team.  Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog.  Bet the Giants Monday.

20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5.5

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They will be pissed off from their 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions who were off a bye and out for revenge last time out.  Now it's the Cowboys who will be pissed off, out for revenge and off a bye this week.

The Cowboys have had this game circled all offseason after losing each of their last three meetings with the 49ers including two in the playoffs.  But now it's the Cowboys who will be a lot healthier coming out of their bye, while the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries.

This 49ers lost their best receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week in their 28-18 loss to the Chiefs.  Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were hurt against the Chiefs as well and both are highly questionable to play in this game.  They were already without WR JuJuan Jennings and remain without him this week.  It's safe to say Brock Purdy's options are receiver are limited, and it helps explain his recent struggles after throwing 3 INT's to the Chiefs last week.

The 49ers had to face the Chiefs off their bye and now they have to face the Cowboys off their bye.  Schedule makers have done them no favors.  The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in road games with a 33-17 win at Cleveland, a 20-15 win at New York and a 20-17 win at Pittsburgh.  That win at Pittsburgh two games ago looks even better now, and it also came on Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to give the 49ers a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Denver Broncos -9.5

I locked in the Broncos -9.5 as soon as I found out Bryce Young would be starting for the Panthers this week.  You can still find a -9.5 at Circa, but I would still play this up to -10.  I hate laying big numbers in the NFL, but this has blowout written all over it.

I was on the Broncos last week when they blasted the Saints 33-10 on Thursday night football. That one looked obvious with all the injuries to the Saints, but the line still only closed Broncos -2.5.  This one looks obvious as well, but sometimes the obvious wins in the NFL.

The Panthers are the dregs of the NFL.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS with all six losses coming by double-digits.  But that doesn't even begin to explain how bad this team has been.  They are 28th in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game and 32nd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game.  They are getting outscored by 19 points per game on the season.

Their offense was at least respectable with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but it has no shot of succeeding with Bryce Young.  We saw that in the first two games of the season as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 with Young at quarterback.  Dalton suffered an injured thumb in a car accident this week and that's the only reason Young is starting.

But this Carolina defense is equally as bad as the offense.  The Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 37 points per game.  It was really bad last week because the Commanders kept piling on the points with Marcus Mariota at quarterback once Jayden Daniels left with an injury.

The amount of players lost to injury on this Carolina defense is like nothing I've ever seen before in the NFL.  They have 8 players on IR, 2 players out, and another 7 players questionable.  That's 17 defenders on the injury report with 10 of them for sure out.  It's easy to see why this Carolina defense has been one of the worst we've ever seen.

Bo Nix has been at his best this season when the ground game is working and he can use his mobility on play-action.  The Broncos rushed for 225 yards on the Saints last week, and they are going to get 200-plus against the Panthers this week as well so they should be able to continue piling on the points in the 2H.  Carolina ranks dead last against the run allowing 162.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.

While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Denver has one of the best.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 15.1 points per game, 3rd in total defense allowing 282.4 yards per game and 1st allowing 4.7 yards per play.  They also get Patrick Surtain II back from a concussion this week, and he is arguably the top corner in the entire NFL.  Carolina will be missing WR Diontae Johnson, WR Adam Thielen and RB Jonathan Brooks on offense due to injury.

Denver also has the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go.  I don't foresee them having a letdown this week, which is what it would take for them to not win by double-digits.  Even then it still might not be enough.  The Panthers are hot garbage with Bryce Young at quarterback.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Bills/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket between the Bills and Seahawks Sunday afternoon.  There is a 99% chance of rain with 17 MPH sustained winds in Seattle and gusts up to 35 MPH.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for these two teams.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 19.4 points per game.  Their job is going to be much easier this week not having to deal with Seattle's best weapon in DK Metcalf, who suffered a knee injury against the Falcons last week and is doubtful to play this week.  Seattle also has a banged-up offensive line and one of the worst units in the NFL.

What makes me really like this UNDER is the improvement of this Seattle defensive under head coach Mike McDonald, the former Ravens' defensive coordinator.  There were a banged up unit for much of the season, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season.  CB Riq Woolen makes his return this week, and CB Tre Brown is trending toward playing as well.  They traded for LB Ernest Jones IV last week as well.

We saw the Seahawks come up big in limiting the Falcons to 14 points last week indoors.  They forced three turnovers and they make Kirk Cousins look very average as he had one of his worst games of the season after previously lighting it up for multiple weeks.  McDonald will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Josh Allen, who had his worst game of the season scoring just 10 points against Baltimore earlier this season, which is a amateur version of McDonald's scheme.

This total is simply too high for this forecast and these two average offenses up against these two improving defenses.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Packers OVER 48.5

The Green Bay Packers have taken off offensively since Jordan Love returned to the lineup.  They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 6th in total offense at 383.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.

The Packers should name their number against an awful Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in scoring at 27.7 points per game, 27th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars have been going heavy man-to-man defense this season and they just don't have the right pieces.  Love is going to torch their man-to-man scheme with all of his weapons.

Jacksonville has been respectable on offense this season ranking 13th at 5.8 yards per play and 16th at 325.9 yards per game.  But they haven't been fully healthy until now as they have both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis back.  They combine with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Christian Kirk to form one of the best set of weapons in the entire NFL.

The Jaguars are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because the Packers are going to get their points.  Green Bay could be without two starters in LB Quay Walker (concussion) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), who are both questionable.  Either way, conditions are perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no run, and I think that's precisely what we get.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cardinals/Dolphins OVER 45.5

This Miami offense has been atrocious with backup QB's Huntley, Thompson and Boyle trying to fill the massive shoes left by Tua Tagovailoa.  But now Tagovailoa returns to what is a fully healthy Miami offense this week, and the Dolphins are now primed for their best offensive performance of the season.

This total is suppressed due to the Dolphins going under the total in five of their six games this season.  To that point, the total is also suppressed due to the Cardinals going 2-0-1 to the under in their last three games as well.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.

The Dolphins will have their best offensive output of the season against an Arizona defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.4 points per game, 28th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play.  They just lost their best pass-rusher to injury last week, have four defensive linemen on IR now, plus DT Ray Lopez has been ruled out.  The Dolphins will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, and  starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out as well.

I don't think this Miami defense is as good as the numbers show.  The Dolphins have benefited from getting to face Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson in their last three games.  This is a big step up in class for them having to face the electric Kyler Murray and a very healthy Arizona offense.  The Cardinals rank 11th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Plus, the Dolphins suffered a blow in practice this week when starting DE Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone and may need surgery.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +6.5

The Indianapolis Colts have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as the best covering team in the NFL.  All three of their losses came by 6 points or less, and all four of their wins came by 6 points or less as well.  They just have a knack for playing in close games.

The same can be said for the Houston Texans, who are 5-2 SU this season with five of their seven games being decided by 6 points or less.  They were blown out 34-7 at Minnesota and the blew out New England 41-21 in Drake Maye's first career start.

The Colts have played this well despite being one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  But they are now about as healthy as they have been all season, and they get two of their best players back from injury this week.  RB Jonathan Taylor is back on offense while DT DeForest Buckner returns from IR.  Those two are huge for this team.

Speaking of injury-ravaged, the Texans are without two key defensive starters in LB Azeez Al-Shaiir and S Jimmie Ward, plus LB Henry To'oTo'o is questionable after missing last week.  But the biggest blow is on offense, where top receiver Nico Collins remains out.

Collins is far and away CJ Stroud's favorite target, and their offensive success has been night and day with him on or off the field in Stroud's career.  In fact, the Texans are just 5-12 SU in their 17 games in which Collins has received one target or fewer.  Stroud looked lost without him last week, throwing for just 86 yards on 21 attempts against the Packers.  The Texans were +3 in turnovers and still lost that game 24-22 to the Packers.

The Colts want revenge not only from their 23-19 loss to the Texans in Week 18 last year that kept them out of the playoffs, but also their 29-27 loss to the Texans in Week 1 this season.  This has been a closely-contested series that the Colts have actually dominated.

In fact, the Colts haven't lost by more than 6 points to the Texans in any of their last 25 meetings! That makes for a 25-0 system backing the Colts pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  This one will go down to the wire as well, and Indianapolis is a very live underdog this week.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ravens/Browns OVER 44.5

The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL and it's not even closer.  They rank 1st in total offense at 461.4 yards per game and 1st at 7.4 yards per play.  They are also 2nd in scoring at 31.1 points per game.  They are going to get their 30-plus, and the Browns are primed for their best offensive performance of the season to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout Sunday.

The Browns have been held to 20 points or fewer in every game this season.  Just when their offensive line started to get healthy, QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week.  Then QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson got hurt, and third-string QB Jameis Winston led them on a TD drive to cut the deficit to 21-14 against the Bengals.

The fans and the media have been calling for Winston all season.  We saw what the Browns did last year with Joe Flacco earning Comeback Player of the Year by leading them to the playoffs after Watson got hurt.  I think Winston is capable of following in Flacco's footsteps.  He has a lot of boom or bust to him like Flacco, and he is great at stretching the field and testing all areas of an opposing defense.

This Cleveland offense has only one way to go which is up.  It looks like they should have four of their five starting offensive linemen healthy, which hasn't been the case all season.  RB Nick Chubb just returned from injury last week and should get more reps this week.

Defensive injuries are a big part of the story here too.  The Browns will be wihtout MLB Jordan Hicks.  The Ravens are likely to be without their best CB Marlon Humphrey, who suffered a knee injury last week against the Bucs.  Fellow starting CB Nate Wiggins is questionable, as is his backup in CB Jalyn Armous-Davis.  DT Travis Jones is questionable as well.

The biggest weakness of this entire Baltimore defense is their secondary as you can pass on them, which makes this a great matchup for Winston and company.  The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL allowing 287.1 passing yards per game and 28th at 7.5 yards per pass attempt.  They are going to be even worse without Humphrey this week.  

The OVER is 6-1 in Ravens seven games this season with 45 or more combined points in all seven, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 44.5-point total.  This total is too low for a game involving the Ravens.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Spartans are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State.  That's how close they are to being 7-0.

Just looking at the numbers it's easy to see San Jose State is a better team than Fresno State.  The Spartans rank 35th in scoring at 32.1 points per game, 50th at 427.7 yards per game and 51st at 6.4 yards per play.  They allow 24.4 points per game, 372.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play on the season.

Fresno State averages 28.1 points per game, 375.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense.  The Bulldogs allow 26.6 points per game, 343 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  They are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game and outgaining them by 0.5 yards per play.

The Bulldogs are really trending in the wrong direction right now.  They lost 59-14 at UNLV three weeks ago, came back and lost 25-17 at home to Washington State and then were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 win at Nevada when you consider the Wolf Pack lost their starting QB in that game to injury.

Nevada and Washington State are common opponents of these two teams, and San Jose State played those two teams much better than Fresno State did.  This line should be much closer to PK than 5.5.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas Jayhawks this week.  They are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, but no team has had worse luck in close games than the Jayhawks.  In fact, all five of their losses have come by 11 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Both wins came in blowout fashion 48-3 over Lindenwood and 42-14 over Houston.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State, which has gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats beat a bad Oklahoma State team 42-20, snuck by Colorado 31-28 on the road, and took down West Virginia 45-18 on the road thanks to several key injuries for the Mountaineers throughout that game.

Kansas State has won 15 straight meetings with Kansas in this rivalry.  No question the Jayhawks are looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and they would make their season simply by winning this one game no matter what else happens.  That's why it will be easy for them to put the poor start behind them and look ahead to this game, and they started that last week coming back from their bye to crush Houston 42-14 while racking up 467 total yards on what is a very good Cougars defense.

Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State last season losing 31-27 as 7-point home dogs.  No question they believe they can hang with the Wildcats, and they should not be catching double-digits here Saturday.  The Wildcats only have slightly better numbers than the Jayhawks this season, not numbers that warrant being a double-digit favorite.  Bet Kansas Saturday.