20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks.  They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game.  They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.

The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys.  They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.

Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins.  It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game.  It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.

The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots.  And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0.  And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.

Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week.  And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.

The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now.  They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense.  Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson.  Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them.  Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.

Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ABC No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

Oklahoma just lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorites last week.  That was the same Kansas State team that lost as a 15-point favorite over Arkansas State in their opener.  And that was an Arkansas State team that was playing without 10 starters due to Covid-19.

So to say that was a bad loss to Kansas State would be an understatement.  And it’s clear the Sooners have another soft defense this year after giving up 38 points to Kansas State.  Plus they have finally downgraded the QB position going from Mayfield to Murray to Hurts, and now they are left with freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who threw three costly interceptions against Kansas State last week.

Iowa State’s loss to Louisiana in the opener was more forgivable.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and it was a misleading 14-31 final.  They also gave up a meaningless TD in the closing seconds with the game already over.  Louisiana is a Top 25 team and one oft he best non-power 5 teams in the country.

The Cyclones bounced back with a 37-34 win at TCU last week in which they overcame another non-offensive touchdown.  It’s a well-coached team that doesn’t make these kinds of mistakes under Matt Campbell.  So they should be shored up moving forward.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 41-42 loss at Oklahoma last year in which they went for the game-winning 2-point conversion at the end and failed.  Few teams have played Oklahoma as tough as Iowa State in recent seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Sooners under Campbell and all four were decided by 10 points or fewer.

After having zero fans in their home opener against Louisiana, the Cyclones will now be playing in front of 15,000 fans this week at home, which will make a difference.  And they are going with their favorite black jerseys for this nice game, jerseys that they are 3-0 in recent seasons when they’ve worn them.  This is a game the Cyclones can win outright, and at the very least, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Campbell is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers as Oklahoma’s head coach.  Campbell is 20-8 ATS as a dog as the coach of Iowa State.  FBS teams coming off a home loss as a 23-point favorite or more where they gave up 30 or more points are 1-15-1 ATS int heir last 17 games when favored in their next game against an unranked opponents.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +21

The Vanderbilt Commodores returned all 11 starters on defense this season and that experience and talent showed in their 12-17 loss to Texas A&M as 31.5-point underdogs in the opener.  Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country so that effort showed what they are capable of.

Clearly, the Commodores don’t have a great offense but their defense can keep them in games.  Plus Derek Mason liked what he saw from true freshman QB Ken Seals, who completed 20-of-29 passes against Texas A&M.  And the defense only allowed 17 first downs and 372 total yards to a potent Aggies offense.

“Obviously it’s at the high school level, but what you saw on Saturday is what we saw of Ken coming out of high school; extremely accurate on the move as well as in the pocket, and those are the things that have shown up throughout camp,” Commodores coach Derek Mason said on Tuesday.

LSU lost 14 starters to the NFL draft and their leading receiver from last year in Ja’Marr Chase sat out the season, so that makes 15 draft picks really.  And it looks like a clear rebuilding year in Baton Rouge after the Tigers lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as 14.5-point favorites last week.  That’s a Mississippi State team in transition with a first-year head coach in Mike Leach, so it was a really bad loss.

The Tigers gave up an SEC-record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in the loss.  It’s clear their defense isn’t anywhere near it has been in years past, and the offense won’t be anywhere near the record-setting offense led by Joe Burrow last year.  New QB Myles Brennan did have 345 passing yards against Mississippi State, but he also threw two interceptions.  The running game produced just 80 yards on 38 carries, of course that counts the minus-45 yards on seven sacks.  Vanderbilt’s defense will make life even worse on Brennan this week.

If LSU wins this game, they’re going to have to win it ugly.  LSU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog Commodores with a total of just 50.5 points.  If they can play with Texas A&M, they can certainly play with this overrated LSU outfit.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +13

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Duke Blue Devils, who are 0-3 SU to start the season.  But they are coming off two misleading losses in which they turned the ball over a combined seven times against Boston College and Virginia, but were only outgained by a total of 141 yards by those two teams.  They showed their potential in their opener, only losing to Notre Dame 13-27 on the road as 21.5-point dogs and getting outgained by 107 yards.

I like the fact that Duke has three games under its belt, so it should be conditioned well and I can’t foresee the Blue Devils continuing to beat themselves.  And I like what I’m hearing from Duke coach David Cutliffe about this team leading up to this game.

“Yes it’s been challenging and it’s going to continue to be challenging,” Cutcliffe told reporters this week. “When you alter anything, you have to increase the quality of everyone you’re doing.  You may not believe this, but I think we’re close.”

This is exactly the type of role I like backing Duke, which is the role of a decent-sized underdog.  And remember last year Duke blitzed Virginia Tech 45-10 as 2.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Hokies 422 to 259 in that game, so it was no fluke.  And they aren’t nearly two touchdowns worse than the Hokies in 2020.

Virginia Tech is coming off a misleading 45-24 win over NC State as a 6.5-point favorite despite only outgaining a bad Wolfpack team by only 109 yards.  That was the Hokies’ first and only game this season, so they won’t be in as good of playing shape.  They were missing a lot of players and coaches due to Covid-19 and will be without several more again this week.  Their depth will be tested here.

“Each week is different, and there is no guarantee that we’ll have the full complement of people coming into the next week,” coach Justin Fuente said. “It was nice for us to get to do it.  It was nice for us to play well.  Certainly, I don’t want to make too much of it.”

The Hokies are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as road favorites.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Duke is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.  The Blue Devils are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +18.5

I’m willing to give Texas A&M a pass here with their 17-12 win as 31.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt.  They thought they could just show up and win that game, but Vanderbilt has a great defense and gave them a fight.  And it’s clear the Aggies were looking ahead to Alabama.

That ‘bad look’ has Texas A&M way undervalued this week catching 18.5 points against Alabama.  This is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  Jimbo Fisher is in his third year with the program so he has all of his players in place.  And the Aggies returned a whopping 17 starters and 72 lettermen, making them the 10th-most experienced team in the land.  They lost by 19 to Alabama last year, but that game was closer than the final score as the Aggies were only outgained by 59 total yards.  They should improve upon that result.

Alabama only has 12 returning starters and has to break in another new starting QB.  Their 38-19 win over Missouri wasn’t impressive at all as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  That’s a really bad Missouri team and they only outgained the Tigers by 92 yards.  And you know with Nick Saban as a head coach they weren’t looking ahead to Texas A&M, either.

Plays against home teams (Alabama) - after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored and allowed 17 points or less in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Aggies will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money this weekend.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas State -3

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I cashed in Arkansas State against Memphis, and I also cashed them in when they won outright 35-31 at Kansas State as 15-point underdogs.  They won that game despite missing 10 starters due to Covid-19.  And they should have won by more because they outgained the Wildcats by 115 yards and had 489 yards of total offense.  

That’s the same Kansas State team that just went into Oklahoma and won 38-35 outright as 28-point underdogs.  So that win looks even better now.  And while Arkansas State has played a brutal schedule thus far with those two road trips, they now take a big step down in class against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal Carolina is getting too much credit for its 2-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  Their 38-23 win at Kansas was misleading because they were outgained by 49 yards by the Jayhawks.  And they failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 43-21 win over FCS bottom feeder Campbell.

Now Coastal Carolina takes a big step up in class against an Arkansas State team that should have almost everyone back that tested positive for Covid-19.  The Red Wolves are clearly threats to win the Sun Belt with all the talent they have this year, and the Sun Belt has looked really good early in the season.  

The Red Wolves are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Coastal Carolina over the last three seasons, outscoring them by a combined 63 points, or an average of 21 points per game.  The Chanticleers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/BYU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +25

Skip Holtz is doing a tremendous job at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs have made six straight bowl games under his watch with four 9-plus win seasons and no fewer than seven wins in any of the last six seasons.  They are coming off a 10-3 campaign last season.

The Bulldogs are flying under the radar this season because they only returned eight starters.  But they only returned 11 last year and still won 10 games.  Holtz does wonders with inexperienced teams and does a good job of bringing in transfers while also developing players.  10 starters on offense are juniors or seniors and nine starters on defense are upperclassmen as well.

Louisiana Tech has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They went on the road and upset Southern Miss 31-30 as 7-point underdogs and then handled their business in a 66-38 win over Houston Baptist as 23.5-point favorites.  That’s the same Houston Baptist team that only lost by 2 points at Texas Tech the week prior.

Holtz always has a great quarterback and stud skill position players, and that has been no different in 2020.  Abilene Christian senior transfer Luke Anthony is the next great one here.  He has thrown for 463 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games.  He has found a nice connection with WR Adrian Hardy, who has nine receptions for 148 yards and a score.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on BYU, which has covered the spread by a combined 78 points in wins over Navy and Troy, two programs that are clearly down this season compared to where they are normally at.  No question those wins were still impressive, but now BYU goes from being a 1.5-point favorite against Navy, a 14-point favorite against Troy to a whopping 25-point favorite against Louisiana Tech.  I think LA Tech would beat both of those teams.

Holtz is 35-18 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 road games.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as road underdogs.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Friday.

20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1

The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess.  I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.

The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season.  Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries.  Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.

Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season.  But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season.  This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.

Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around.  And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury.  Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite.  It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.

The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up.  The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.

These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans.  The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate.  They outgained the Texans by 103 yards.  The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate.  And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.

Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.  Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week.  They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1.  Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.

But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick.  They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39.  I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.

And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys.  I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.

Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games.  The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week.  Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.

The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson.  This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far.  And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well.  It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game.  Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.

Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far.  The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys.  The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.

The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week.  And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.

The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards.  And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week.  It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.

Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders.  They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks.  The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5

I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss.  And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week.  Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss.  And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1.  It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.

But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.  They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front.  And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.

The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company.  Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams.  And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary.  We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.

Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached.  Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take Washington Sunday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5

The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden.  He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency.  The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.

They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites.  The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth.  I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.

New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week.  The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference.  Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury.  He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight.  They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright.  Bet the Raiders Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.  It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0.  But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17.  They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.

I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line.  They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles.  Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.  

They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game.  They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards.  And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.

The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers.  That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center.  Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins.  That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him.  Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions.  So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached.  So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win.  Washington will give Arizona a run for its money.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5

The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week.  They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win.  They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown.  But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.

The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter.  I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season.  But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.

This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense.  There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season.  So we are going to grab these points this week.  

And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks.  The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside.  He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.

The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons.  New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years.  Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent.  The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents.  The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105

This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1.  The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing.  That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.

The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1.  They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most.  I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback.  Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times.  The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em.  I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game.  The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.

Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week.  The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company.  Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.

Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2.  This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2.  That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front.  They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins.  But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen.  RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.

The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles.  Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  He proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players from last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

I cashed in Louisville -11.5 over Western Kentucky last week and I’m back on them again this week.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 35-21 final score would indicate.  The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and only scored seven more points after intermission.  They outgained Western Kentucky 487 to 248, or by 239 total yards, so they obviously should have won by more.

I think the fact that Louisville barely covered last week is why were are getting them at such great value this week.  They are only 2.5-point favorites over Miami at home.  And you know the Cardinals haven’t forgotten their 27-52 loss at Miami last year in one of the most misleading finals of the season.

They are going to want some revenge after Louisville outgained Miami 496 to 449 in that contest, but found a way to lose by 25 points due to losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Look for a role reversal this season.  The Cardinals will win the box score and the scoreboard this time around because they are night and day better than they were last year.

The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +23.5

Tulsa was way better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year.  The Golden Hurricane faced a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl teams.  And despite their 2-6 record in the tough AAC, they actually outgained their opponents by 45 yards per game.

Tulsa beat UCF outright as 17-point underdogs.  They lost to Memphis by 1 as 10-point dogs and missed a 29-yard field goal with no time left on the clock that would have won the game.  Memphis and UCF were two of the better teams in the country last year.  And Tulsa only lost one game by more than 21 points last season.

The Golden Hurricane played Oklahoma State last year and actually took a 21-20 lead into halftime over the Cowboys.  They did get shut out 20-0 after intermission, but still only lost by 19.  Now they are catching 23.5 points in the rematch this year, and I think it’s too much.

Tulsa brings back nine starters on offense.  That includes stud QB Zach Smith and his top two receivers, who combined for 1,817 yards last year.  They also bring back 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.  Four of their five starters are back along the offensive line.

I think Oklahoma State is getting too much hype this season with 17 starters back.  I just don’t believe in QB Spencer Sanders, who is too turnover-prone and had just a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  Ten of their starters are back on defense from a unit that gave up 412 yards per game last year.

Tulsa is going to be able to score with Oklahoma State, so it will never be out of this game. And we’ve seen how poor the Big 12 has looked early in the season.  Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas all got upset by Sun Belt teams last week.  And Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite.

Oklahoma State will be good this year, I just don’t think they are 24-plus points better than Tulsa, which is what they’d need to be to cover this spread.  That’s a Tulsa team they trailed at halftime last year.

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - an excellent offense from last year that average 6.1 or more yards per play, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent, in the first two weeks of the season are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Philip Montgomery is 20-10 ATS in all road games as the coach Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricanee are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +16

Louisiana-Lafeyette is in a massive letdown spot already early in the season.  The Rajin’ Cajuns just went not he road and beat Iowa State 31-14 as 13-point underdogs last week in one of the most misleading final scores of the early season.

Indeed, Louisiana was actually outgained by 31 yards by Iowa State.  The Cyclones held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 272 total yards.  But the difference in the game was on special teams as Louisiana returned two kicks for touchdowns.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 in that game.

Now Louisiana comes back as more than two-touchdown favorites on the road against Georgia State this week.  There’s no chance the Rajin’ Cajuns will be as amped up for this game as they were for Iowa State.  And I fully expect them to find themselves in more of a dog fight than they bargained for.

A big reason the Rajin’ Cajuns struggled to move the ball against Iowa State is because they are lacking weapons at receiver.  They are without their top three receivers from last year.  J’Marcus Bradley and Jarrod Jackson graduated, and Jamal Bell is out with injury.  I don’t expect Louisiana to have nearly as explosive of an offense this year as they did last year, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover these bigger spreads in the Sun Belt.

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6

The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered.  They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL.  And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.

Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference.  The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed.  He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.

The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win.  And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss.  I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company.  The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.

The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance.  They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.  Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt  in the loss.

More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries.  They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson.  All three will be out once again on a short week this week.  Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game.  Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable.  They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.

A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings.  They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs.  They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313.  Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.

The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games.  The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall.  Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss.  The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job.  They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.

The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too.  Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season.  He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft.  They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year.  And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years.  He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.

While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength.  Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it.  They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.

The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game.  He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball.  That’s a huge advantage.  They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.

The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year.  They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road.  They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.

The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs.  But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1.  As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player.  They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.  

Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney.  Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured.  Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list.  Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th.  Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.

Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos.  Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year.  You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.

Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee.  Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points.  Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year.  They are kind of the forgotten team.  They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.

But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance.  They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.

Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year.  Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year.  And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.

The Cowboys’ situation is much worse.  They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system.  And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.

The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They failed to address needs on this side of the ball.  They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year.  They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.  

Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL.  They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues.  Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones.  The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year.  They really came on strong in the second half.  Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.

That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage.  And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.

The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy.  Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco.  The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.

No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense.  And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse.  They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins +6.5

The Washington Redskins come into the 2020 season undervalued off a 3-13 campaign last year.  Ron Rivera takes over and enters his 10th season as a head coach.  I think he is still one of the better coaches in the NFL as his players always respect and play hard for him.

The Redskins were terrible through the first 10 games last year, but they got much better down the stretch.  They went 2-4 in their last six games, but they were competitive in losses to the Packers (by 5), Eagles (by 10) and Giants (OT).  Their only blowout loss came in Week 17 to the Cowboys.

Dwayne Haskins got some valuable playing time down the stretch and should be ready for a breakout sophomore season at quarterback.  The Redskins are going to have an offense similar to that of the Ravens that is going to be tough for opposing defenses to deal with.

Defensively, they drafted Chase Allen, arguably the best player in the draft.  And now they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  Young joins a unit that already includes four first-round picks in Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat.  We’ve seen in the NFL that having a dominant defensive line is the most important position group there is.

The Eagles had 10 of their 16 games last year decided by one score.  So that fact alone says there’s value here with the Redskins catching nearly a full touchdown.  The Eagles lose a ton of key pieces in S Jenkins, CB Darby, DT Jernigan, T Peters and WR Agholor, and their secondary is still a problem.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -11.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  The proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

Western Kentucky is definitely no slouch.  The Hilltoppers also had a huge improvement last year going from 3-9 in 2018 to 9-4 in 2019 in Tyson Helton’s first season.  Give them credit, but it came against a very soft schedule, and they even lost to Central Arkansas.  They do have 16 starters back, but they lost starting QB Ty Storey and leading receiver Lucky Jackson.  Story completed 69.9% of his passes last year and Jackson had 94 receptions for 1,133 yards and four touchdowns.  Both are irreplaceable.

The Hilltoppers will starter Tyrrell Pigrome at quarterback.  He’s a transfer from Maryland that only completed 57% of his passes with a 9-to-10 TD/INT ratio in his four years with the Terrapins.  He is a huge downgrade.  The defense will be good again, but the offense will be way behind where it was last year, and it wasn’t even all that good last year in averaging just 25.4 points per game.

Louisville beat Western Kentucky 38-21 last year and outgained the Hilltoppers by 127 yards.  I think the Cardinals are better this year than last, while the Hilltoppers are worse off.  So another 17-plus point victory can be expected.  Plus, Louisville got in seven spring practices, while WKU didn’t have a single spring practice.  So the Cardinals had the leg up going into fall camp.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Louisville) - a great offense from last year that average 6.4 or more yards per play, with an experienced QB returning as a starter are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons in the first month of the season.  The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Alabama +10

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  So I’m high on this team and will back them again here.  They dominated Southern Miss by racking up 526 total yards and outgaining them by 117 yards for the game.  So now the Jaguars have a game under their belts and eight days off to get ready for Tulane.

No question Tulane is a quality team under Willie Fritz.  He has done a good job here improving Tulane from four to five to seven and seven wins in his first four seasons, respectively.  I just don’t think the Green Wave should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers in the opener.

Tulane only returns 12 starters this year and loses all of its top playmakers from an offense that was Fritz’s best yet last year, averaging 33.1 points and 449 yards per game.  They lose QB Justin McMillan, their top two receivers in Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey, and their top two running backs.  McMillan is a big loss as he also led the team in rushing with 745 yards and 12 TD on the ground.  

The replacement is likely to be Southern Miss transfer Keon Howard, who only completed 54% of his passes with a 9-to-9 TD/INT ratio in his two years there.  Tulane will have a solid defense with seven starters back, but the offense is going to struggle to find chemistry in their first game with all these new faces with only five starters back.

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  They are flying under the radar again this week.  Roll with South Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I like that Arkansas State has a game under its belt now against an opponent that is better than the Kansas State team they will be playing on Saturday.  Plus, it’s worth noting that the Red Wolves had 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got a head start going into fall camp.  Kansas State had zero spring practices.

Chris Klieman inherited 14 returning starters last year and led the Wildcats to a surprising 8-5 campaign that included an upset win over Oklahoma.  But the Wildcats only have nine starters back this year and will clearly be one of the worst teams in the Big 12.

The Wildcats lose all five starters along the offensive line as they were all seniors last year.  I love betting against inexperienced offensive lines early in the season.  It will create continuity problems for Kansas State, which only has three starters back in all on offense.  They also lose their leading receiver and rusher.  

The Wildcats will have a solid defense, but I just don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to put Arkansas State away by two-plus touchdowns, let alone win the game outright.  Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* Texans/Chiefs 2020 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City -9

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs bring back pretty much everyone from last year’s team and have a legitimate shot to defend their crown.  They gave Patrick Mahomes the big contract he deserved and he has all his weapons back, plus they drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in the first round.  Their offense will be as explosive as any in the NFL again.

Defensively, the Chiefs held their own last year in giving up just 19.2 points per game, which was the 7th-best mark in the league.  They were 11th in sacks (45) and 5th in interceptions (16).  And they really didn’t lose anyone of significance defensively with 11 starters back.  The only loss is CB Kendall Fuller, who only started four games for the Chiefs last year.

I just don’t like what Bill O’Brien is doing with the Texans.  The trade of DeAndre Hopkins was the worst trade of the offseason.  They got a washed up running back in David Johnson in return.  And the offense is now severely lacking playmakers, especially if Brandon Cooks is unable to go with a quad injury tonight.  He is listed as questionable.

While I do think Houston’s offense will be serviceable this year, the defense is going to be atrocious.  The Texans finished 28th in total defense, 29th in passing defense and 25th in rushing defense last year.  They didn’t do much to address their defense at all, and getting stops will be a problem again, which isn’t good news when facing the Chiefs.

We saw that last year in the playoffs as the Chiefs erased a 24-0 deficit with ease in the playoffs and ended up taking a 28-24 lead into halftime.  They went on to win 51-31 as they moved the ball and scored points at will on Houston’s defense.  And that was even with J.J. Watt returning from injury in time for the playoffs.  There was little he or any other Texan could do to slow down Mahomes and company.

Kansas City went 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS last year.  They really have no problem winning by double-digits as 10 of their 15 wins last year came by 10 points or more.  I think we see another here to open the 2020 season.  Roll with the Chiefs Thursday.

15* UAB/Miami CFB ANNIHILATOR on UAB +14.5

What Bill Clark has done at UAB has been remarkable.  He took a team that didn’t even play football for two years to a bowl game in 2017.  Then in 2018 the Blazers won the Conference USA title.

Last year, the Blazers only brought back seven starters and still started 9-3 and made the C-USA title game again.  They would go on to lose to FAU and Appalachian State, but it was still a great season with such little experience.

Now the Blazers are one of the most experienced teams in the country again with 18 returning starters and should make the C-USA title game for the 3rd consecutive season.  They are the favorites to win the conference, and for good reason.

UAB opened its season with a 45-35 victory over Central Arkansas as 19-point favorites.  But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed.  UAB outgained Central Arkansas 459-293 for the game.  Central Arkansas scored one TD on a fumble recovery, and it was a 45-21 game before UAB pulled its starters, and they allowed two touchdowns in the final six minutes of garbage time.

Miami is a team that is hard to trust laying these kind of points.  They showed that last year when they went 6-7 and were upset by two fellow Conference USA teams of UAB.  They lost 24-30 to FIU as 20-point favorites and went on to lose 14-0 to Louisiana Tech as 7-point favorites in the Independence Bowl.  UAB is better this year than both FIU and LA Tech were last year.

I know the Hurricanes have a great transfer QB in D’Eriq King coming in from Houston.  He’s one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country, and it was about time they found a signal caller after averaging just 25.7 points per game last year.  But King won’t be hitting on all cylinders in his first game, and I like the fact that UAB has a game under its belt already, which is a huge advantage.

The Hurricanes have consistently had a great defense the last three years, giving up 21 points per game in 2017, 19.5 in 2018 and 20.2 in 2019.  But the gains they make up with King on offense could be made up for what they lose on defense.  The Hurricanes only return five starters on D and lose five of their top seven tackles, including Shaquille QAuarterman and Michael Pinckney.  Miami will certainly take a step back defensively in 2020.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* BYU/Navy ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Navy +1.5

Navy is coming off a huge bounce-back season.  After going 3-10 in 2018 in only the 2nd losing season ever for head coach Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipmen put together an 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded with a win over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.  Their only two losses came to Memphis and Notre Dame.

Now the Midshipmen have the most returning starters (13) that they’ve had since 2014.  While they do have to replace QB Malcolm Perry, the offense always functions at a high level no matter who is under center in the triple-option.  And the defense should be great again with seven returning starters from a unit that gave up just 22.3 points and 314 yards per game last year.

BYU has 14 returning starters from a 7-6 team that lost to Hawaii in their bowl last year.  The Cougars are still a tough out every time they take the field.  And I do think they’ll have a solid defense with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 25.5 points and 394 yards per game, but I would take Navy’s defense over theirs.

Offensively, the Cougars do get a healthy Zach Wilson back at QB and return everyone on the offensive line.  My problem with their offense is that they lose each of their top four receivers from last year, so there could be some chemistry issues with Wilson and company early on.  The big blow was when potential All-American TE Matt Bushman (47 receptions, 688 yards, 4 TD 2019) suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in camp.

BYU is 0-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Navy is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Midshipmen are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Take Navy Monday.

20* Arkansas State/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas State +19

The Arkansas State Red Wolves now have nine consecutive winning seasons and have been the model of consistency in the Sun Belt.  Of course, having a 7th-year head coach like Blake Anderson has helped stabilize the program, and he just got an extension through 2023 for good reason.

Now Arkansas State returns 15 starters and has the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.  Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio before suffering a season-ending injury after four starts and Layne Hatcher took over and finished with 65.8% completions and a 27-to-10 ratio.  Bonner is expected to start the opener, but they’re in good hands if anything happens to him. And nine starters in all return offensively.

There’s a little too much hype surrounding Memphis heading into 2020 after winning the most games (12) in program history last year and making the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.  But they were fortunate in close games last year going 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less.

While Memphis will be good again with 14 returning starters including QB Brady White, I simply believe they are being overvalued here.  And they lost their head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  New head coach Ryan Silverfield coached the Tigers in their 39-53 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.  So there is some continuity with them, I just think it has to be a step down from Norvell.

Arkansas State did get to play another team from the AAC last year in SMU.  Their 30-37 loss to the Mustangs aged well as SMU went on to have a 10-3 season and nearly beat Memphis on the road last year.  And that was an inexperienced Arkansas State team with just 12 returning starters in their season opener at the time.  I believe they’ll be able to hang with Memphis.

It’s also worth noting that Arkansas State got in 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got in more practice than most heading into the fall.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* USA/USM 2020 College Football Season Opener on South Alabama +15

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

Certainly Southern Miss has done a good job under Jay Hopson as he has coached them to a winning record in each of his four seasons on the job.  But they’ve been barely over a .500 team each year finishing with one more win than loss in three of four years.  And I don’t think they should be two-touchdown favorites out of the gate here against what will be a vastly improved South Alabama team.

Southern Miss does have a good defense that gave up 26.2 points per game last year and six starters back on that side of the ball.  But the offense just isn’t explosive enough, averaging just 26.6 points per game last year.  So even thought they get QB Jack Abraham back this year, he only had a 19-to-15 TD/INT ratio last year and makes too many mistakes for my liking.  Plus, he loses his top receiver from last year in Quez Watkins (64 receptions, 1,178 yards, 6 TD).

South Alabama went on the road in its opener last year and gave Nebraska all it wanted in a 21-35 loss as 35-point dogs.  The Jaguars actually outgained the Huskers 314-276 in that game but gave up three non-offensive touchdowns, which was the difference.  They can certainly compete with Southern Miss on the road in the 2020 opener.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5 

Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl.  And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers are simply the more complete team.  The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season.  The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season.  They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.

The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll.  But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs.  And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup. 

The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round.  Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted.  The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers. 

Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers.  They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans.  But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do. 

The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs.  The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points.  I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense. 

While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season.  They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens.  Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively. 

That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers.  The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers.  They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season. 

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor.  The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season.  The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry.  The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco. 

So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt.  Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead. 

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54

#10 - Jimmy G UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season.  He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game.  And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game. 

#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130) 

Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall.  Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl.  Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert. 

#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110) 

Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season.  He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes. 

#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150) 

Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season.  He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games.  Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible.  I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run. 

#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110) 

Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed.  That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl.  But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles.  Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games 

#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125) 

I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet.  But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game.  UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2) 

#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220) 

We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it.  Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game.  He has made 26 starts under Shanahan.  He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games.  That’s an 81% completion percentage.  Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220. 

#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100) 

Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game.  And the numbers bear it out, too.  Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games.  He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games.  And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game. 

#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans.  The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more.  The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense.  That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB.  SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season.  But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson.  Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt.  He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games.  That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards.  But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER. 

#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155) 

This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet.  There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price.  The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters.  The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters.  And we’ve seen that in the playoffs.  They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games. 

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7 

I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL.  No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied.  They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game.  That’s how close they are to being 17-0. 

The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense.  The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.  The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game. 

The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively.  Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation.  And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries.  That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards.  They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers. 

After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season.  They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards.  They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards.  No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game. 

Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically.  The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season.  The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game.  They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games.  Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close. 

I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense.  The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run.  They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season.  The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game.  Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks.  Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week. 

The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year.  The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway.  They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7 

I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens.  It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently.  The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship. 

The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close.  That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans.  They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites.  Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston.  So I think there’s some value here. 

Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week.  They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12.  That is a complete fluke.  Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times.  That’s essentially seven turnovers.  It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL. 

Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either.  The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game.  And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury.  If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout. 

Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern.  But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor.  This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score.  And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score.  Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week. 

The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game.  The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game.  The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5 

I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now.  I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here. 

Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember.  He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma.  He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season.  And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country. 

LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up.  But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall.  They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28.  The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half. 

It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively.  And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game.  And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest.  A common opponent is Texas A&M.  Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home. 

It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule.  So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in. 

Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU.  LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season.  LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game.  Bet LSU Monday. 

20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4 

The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week.  They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way.  And they still had to hang on for dear life. 

The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week.  They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week.  Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye. 

Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now.  They could be without three starting offensive linemen.  They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati.  And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable.  Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points. 

Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers.  And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch.  Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination. 

This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed.  The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense. 

Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson.  The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson.  And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay.  Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion.  Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points. 

The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins.  The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss.  Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks.  Roll with the Packers Sunday. 

15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10 

The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season.  A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill. 

Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season.  Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch. 

The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games.  Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season.  And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry.  Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season. 

Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them.  The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed.  They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season.  Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson. 

I like that the Titans are battle-tested.  They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee.  And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win. 

The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16.  And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers.  They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively.  Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down. 

Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace.  That favors the double-digit underdog here.  I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game.  The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5 

The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone.  They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4.  This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed. 

It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months.  They are expected to get back some key players on defense.  LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17.  When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of. 

Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings.  They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday.  Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week.  Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara. 

Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too.  Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.  With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is.  And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints.  They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable.  And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week. 

The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now.  They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game.  The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders.  They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game.  They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier. 

Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home.  The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers.  They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14 

The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs.  And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book.  They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away.  But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams.  They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country.  And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season. 

Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game.  But I question their motivation in this game.  They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them.  They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it. 

It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here.  They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game. 

Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog.  Bet Miami Ohio Monday. 

25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 

I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch.  I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief.  I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons. 

The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable.  Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks.  He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career.  The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5.  They are complete frauds. 

The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs.  That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game.  And they came up just inches short.  It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that. 

The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs.  That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive.  They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards.  And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards. 

Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense.  They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson.  And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back. 

A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too.  They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels.  And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street.  They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended. 

It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers.  They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season.  And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line. 

The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either.  Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing.  And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers.  I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around. 

The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog.  Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Eagles Sunday. 

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5 

The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl.  Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less.  I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week. 

The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more.  They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers. 

Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career.  This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch.  They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company. 

I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense.  It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season.  He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks.  Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles. 

A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%.  And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self.  Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable. 

The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24.  It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.   

Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005.  The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5 

It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past.  They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line.  That never used to happen.  And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami. 

It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for.  The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over.  Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt. 

Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch.  The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven.  This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it. 

New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL.  They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall.  And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week.  I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball. 

Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year.  The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games.  The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.  The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL. 

Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival.  The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins.  I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week.  There’s value here on the road underdog.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7 

I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl.  They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season.  They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason. 

Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF.  That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season. 

With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams.  Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss.  It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season.  But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion.  They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites.  They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs. 

Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game.  The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA.  Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more. 

Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team.  The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game.  They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was. 

Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.  Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Tulane Saturday. 

15* Ohio/Nevada Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -9 

The Ohio Bobcats have been dominant in their last two bowl games.  They have outscored UAB and San Diego State a combined 68-6 the past two seasons.  And they just blasted Bowling Green by 42 and Akron by 49 in their final two games to close out the regular season. 

It’s the final game for Ohio senior QB Nathan Roarke, so you know he is going to want to put on a big performance.  He has another great season with 20 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions.  Roarke also rushed for 780 yards and 12 scored to lead this explosive Ohio offense. 

Nevada has to be one of the most fraudulent 7-5 teams I’ve ever season.  They were outscored by nearly 11 points per game this season and were also outgunned by 1.2 yards per play.  They lost by 71 to Oregon, by 51 to Hawaii, by 26 to Utah State and by 28 to Wyoming.  And now they have four defensive starters suspended for this bowl game.  I think they’ll be in over their heads here in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Ohio) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a bad defense that allows 390 to 440 yards per game after 7-plus games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 38-9 (80.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Bobcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Roll with Ohio Friday. 

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2 

The Tennessee Vols are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016.  They were a juggernaut to close out the season going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only loss was a road loss to Alabama as a 34.5-point dog and they actually played the Crimson Tide tough for a half. 

Tennessee pulled four outright upsets during this 6-1 stretch and the team is really buying into head coach Jeremy Pruitt.  The Vols beat four bowl eligible teams this year and played a much tougher schedule than Indiana did.  And they will be playing in SEC country in Jacksonville, so they should have a home-field advantage. 

Indiana had a great year as well with an 8-4 season.  But the Hoosiers’ eight wins all came against non-bowl teams.  They went 0-4 against the bowl teams they did play and weren’t really that competitive in them losing those four games by a combined 82 points, or by an average of 20.5 points per game. 

Tennessee is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Indiana is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games.  The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Vols are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Bet Tennessee Thursday. 

20* Boston College/Cincinnati Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on Boston College +7.5 

The Boston College Eagles clearly want to be playing in a bowl game after missing out on a bowl last year.  They showed that in the season finale as they went into Pitt and came away with an upset road win as 7.5-point underdogs to improved to 6-6 on the season. 

Now the Eagles fit into one of my favorite systems.  It’s betting on 6-6 teams in bowl games who are off a SU win as an underdog.  Those teams have gone 70% ATS in bowl games since 2000.  Also, 6-6 teams playing an opponent with 9 or more wins are 22-9 ATS since 2000.  Both systems make sense because almost always that 6-6 team is the more motivated team. 

Cincinnati had higher hopes than playing in the Birmingham Bowl.  The Bearcats were neck-and-neck with Memphis for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  But they lost to Memphis twice, once in the regular season finale and again in the AAC Championship Game.  They had a chance to win both those games in the 4th quarter but came up short.  I really question their motivation now having to play a 6-6 Boston College team that they cannot be too excited for. 

I think this line has been adjusted too much for Boston College having an interim head coach in Rich Gunnell and also for RB AJ Dillon sitting out.  Backup RB David Bailey rushed for 811 yards and average 5.8 yards per carry this season.  Dillon only averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so Bailey was actually the more explosive back. 

Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.  Take Boston College Thursday. 

20* Wisconsin/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Oregon +3 

Oregon was really close to being 12-0 this season.  They had last-second losses to both Arizona State and Auburn on the road.  They are probably the fourth-best team in the country and would have made the four-team playoff if they would have won either of those games. 

I think the wrong team is favored in this game.  Oregon showed it could handle the physicality of both Auburn and Utah, two teams that are similar to this physical Wisconsin team.  They thumped Utah 37-15 in the Pac-12 Championship and dominated at the line of scrimmage.  RB CJ Verdell rushed for 208 yards on the Utes.  QB Justin Herbert will be the best player on the field and wants to improve his draft stock.  And Oregon will also have the speed advantage. 

Wisconsin is obviously happy to be playing the Rose Bowl, but they have to feel a little deflated from not winning a Big Ten Championship.  They had Ohio State down 21-7 at half, but gave up 27 unanswered points and lost 21-34.  And don’t forget they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Wisconsin) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game against an opponent that outgained its last opponents by 125 or more yards are 74-32 (69.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Oregon is 48-24 ATS in its last 72 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Ducks are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Oregon is 45-14 ATS in its last 59 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  Bet Oregon Wednesday. 

15* Minnesota/Auburn Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -7 

The Auburn Tigers have a huge talent edge over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in this one.  And most of their future NFL players are expected to play in the Outback Bowl, including two outstanding defensive linemen in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson.  It appears Auburn is ‘all in’ for this game. 

The Tigers had a great 9-3 season against the nation’s 2nd-toughest schedule.  They had to play Oregon out of conference and beat them.  They beat Alabama and Texas A&M.  And their three losses came to LSU, Florida and Georgia all on the road and all against 10-win teams. 

To compare, Minnesota played the 61st-ranked schedule in the country.  That’s a 60-spot difference compared to Auburn in strength of schedule.  They played in the weak Big Ten West division and played one of the easiest non-conference schedules you will ever see against South Dakota State, Fresno and Georgia Southern.  And the Golden Gophers aren’t as good as their 10-2 record as they won five games by 7 points or less.   

Minnesota’s three wins against bowl teams came against Penn State by 5, Georgia Southern by 3 and Illinois.  And this will be the toughest team that Minnesota will have faced all season.  The other was Wisconsin, and they were manhandled at home by the Badgers and lost by 21 points.  They will struggle with Auburn’s physicality at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as well. 

Auburn boasts an elite defense that gives up 18.6 points, 323.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Teams didn’t have much success throwing against them, and Minnesota is going to need to be able to throw it.  Auburn held teams to 5.9 yards per attempt, 1.8 yards per attempt than they normally average.  They also held teams to 3.4 yards per carry, which is 1.7 yards per carry less than they normally average. 

Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  Gus Malzahn is 18-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of Auburn.  I believe the Golden Gophers will be in over their heads here.  Take Auburn Wednesday. 

20* Texas/Utah Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on Texas +7 

I question Utah’s motivation playing in the Alamo Bowl.  The Utes would have made the four-team playoff had they beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.  Instead, they got embarrassed 15-37.  It’s not a great consolation prize for them to be playing in the Alamo Bowl now. 

Texas is looking to build something going into next year.  And we saw the Longhorns win outright as 13.5-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl last year.  Georgia wasn’t motivated for that game and was in a similar position to the one Utah is in this year.  Georgia missed out on the 4-team playoff with their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship. 

Tom Herman thrives in the role of the underdog.  He is 15-5 ATS as a dog as a head coach.  He’s also 3-0 in bowl games with three outright wins as an underdog.  He beat Georgia last year and also beat Missouri 33-16 as 3-point dogs in 2017.  He also beat Florida State 38-24 as 7-point dogs when at Houston in 2015 in the Peach Bowl. 

Sam Ehlinger is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He has completed 65.1% of his passes with a 29-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has rushed for 590 yards and six scores as well. 

The Pac-12 is just 5-19-1 ATS in bowl games the last four seasons.  Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games overall.  Bet Texas Tuesday. 

15* Georgia State/Wyoming Arizona Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Wyoming -7 

The Wyoming Cowboys were bowl eligible last year, but they were left out of a bowl game. There’s no question they are happy to be going bowling this year and will show up for this Arizona bowl in their part of the country. 

Wyoming played a much tougher schedule than Georgia State did.  And the Cowboys have the much better defense in this matchup.  Wyoming allowed just 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  Georgia State gave up 36.1 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this year. 

Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Wyoming was at least competitive in losing three of its last four.  All four losses came on the road to Boise State, Utah State and Air Force, and they were in every one of those games in the 4th quarter.  Georgia State was not competitive in losing three of its last four.  They lost by 14 to Louisiana-Monroe, by 29 to Appalachian State and by 28 to Georgia Southern. 

There’s one hidden factor here that is getting overlooked.  Georgia State QB Dan Ellington was a stud through the first nine games of the season before tearing his ACL.  He rushed for 70 yards per game in the first nine games and was a great dual-threat.  But since playing the last three games on a torn ACL, Ellington has rushed for a total of -5 yards in his last three games.  I don’t think his injury is being factored into this line enough. 

Wyoming is 14-4 ATS when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  The Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming Tuesday. 

15* K-State/Navy Liberty Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Navy -2.5 

This game fits into one of my favorite bowl systems.  Teams that won three or fewer games last year are 18-3 ATS the last four years in bowl games.  Navy lost 10 games last year but won 10 games this year.  Their only two losses came to a pair of 11-win teams in Memphis & Notre Dame on the road.  Two other teams that fit into this system this year were Kent State winning outright as 7-point dogs and North Carolina crushing Temple. 

I just think Navy is the better team, and this is a better matchup for them.  The Midshipmen led the country in rushing at 360.2 yards per game.  Kansas State ranks 62nd against the run, giving up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  That’s pretty poor when you consider they don’t face many good rushing attacks in the Big 12. 

Navy QB Malcolm Perry is an absolute stud.  He is 4th in the country in rushing with 1,804 yards and 21 touchdowns.  He also threw for over 1,000 yards this season, so the Midshipmen are a threat in the passing game more than most years with Perry under center. 

Military teams have hit about 70% ATS over the last 20 years in bowl games.  They are so difficult to prepare for because teams just can’t simulate what they do.  They don’t have the personnel to simulate it.  And Navy is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games. 

Navy is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season.  The Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season.  Navy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  Kansas State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Roll with Navy Tuesday. 

20* Virginia/Florida Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida -14 

Virginia was just blasted by Clemson 62-17 in the ACC Championship Game.  The Cavaliers did not deserve a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but they have been given one due to playing in the ACC title game.  Now they’ll get blasted again by another superior team in Florida in the Orange Bowl. 

Dan Mullen is one of my favorite coaches in college football.  What he has done in just two seasons at Florida has been mighty impressive.  Remember, the Gators were just 4-7 before he arrived here last year.  He promptly guided the Gators to a 10-3 season and a 41-15 win over Michigan in their bowl game, improves Mullen to 6-2 all-time in bowls. 

Mullen has the Gators looking at 11 wins this season as they come in at 10-2 with their only losses coming to Georgia and LSU.  They were competitive in both losses, leading LSU 28-21 before losing 28-42 and only losing to Georgia by 7.  And both of those games were on the road. 

Florida’s offense is one of the most improved units in the country.  The Gators put up 56 points against Vanderbilt and another 40 against Florida State in two of their final three games this year.  Now they face a Virginia defense that has been absolutely gashed n the 2nd half of the season. 

The Cavaliers have allowed at least 27 points in each of their final six games this year.  They have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game in those six contests.  I know if Florida gets to 34-plus in this game, chances are they will cover this 14-point spread.  That’s because they have an elite defense that gives up just 14.4 points per game and they will shut down Virginia’s offense. 

Mullen is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Florida.  Bronco Mendenhall is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Virginia.  The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games.  Finally, the Gators will have a big home-field advantage with this game being played in Miami.  Bet Florida Monday. 

20* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -2.5 

The Seattle Seahawks are frauds.  I’ve been saying it all season.  I faded them last week with an easy outright win on the Cardinals +9.5, and I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.  They are the most fortunate 11-4 team I’ve ever seen. 

Indeed, the Seahawks are 11-4 despite having just a +12 point differential on the season.  They have gone 10-1 in one-score games this year.  People say it’s just Russell Wilson being clutch, but Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games prior to 2019. 

The 49ers are 12-3 and every bit as good as their record.  They have a +164 point differential on the season, which is 152 points better than the Seahawks.  All three of their losses came on the final play of the game. 

Yes, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in their first meeting, but it comes with an asterisk.  The 49ers were without their most important player in George Kittle, who is worth more to the spread than any other non-QB in the NFL.  And Emmanuel Sanders got hurt early in that game.  Jimmy G didn’t have any weapons left.  And the Seahawks still needed a FG in overtime to beat the 49ers.  Now it’s revenge time for San Francisco. 

The 49ers are the much healthier team in the rematch.  The Seahawks have injury problems everywhere.  They are missing a handful of guys on defense, they could be without two starting offensive linemen, and will for sure be without LT Duane Brown.  They just recently lost WR Josh Gordon to suspension, taking away one of Wilson’s top targets. 

The Seahawks needed a win last week against the Cardinals to keep alive a chance at a first-round bye.  But they lost 13-27 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 188 yards by the Cardinals and managed just 224 total yards themselves.  Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and it showed last week, especially since the Cardinals kept scoring even after Kyler Murray went down with injury.   

The Seahawks rank 26th in total defense giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The 49ers rank 2nd in total defense, giving up 277.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They are allowing over 100 yards less per game than the Seahawks, and that’s the difference in this game.  The 49ers also have the better offensive numbers this year, scoring 30.2 points per game and gaining 379.9 yards per game while ranking 2nd in scoring and 6th in total offense. 

The 49ers also get an extra day of rest after beating the Rams on Saturday.  The Seahawks don’t have the same home-field advantage they used to.  They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season with losses to the Ravens, Saints and Cardinals outright.  Their four home wins came by 7, 6, 1 and 1 point and only one of those was against a playoff team in the Vikings.  Take the 49ers Sunday. 

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans +1 

The Tennessee Titans need a win and they’re in the playoffs.  We know they will be max motivated here.  The same cannot be said for the Houston Texans, which is why I have made this my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2019 season. 

The Texans have nothing to play for.  Yes, they could get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers and they win this game.  But the Chiefs are 9-point home favorites against the Chargers.  Kansas City plays at 1:00 EST, while Houston plays at 4:25 EST.  So the Texans will know their fate before they kick off, and that fate is going to be that they are locked into the No. 4 seed. 

After coming out Monday and saying he would play his starters, head coach Bill O’Brien has recanted as I expected, which is why I locked this line in early.  I expected him to rest his starters, and that’s precisely what he is going to do.  That’s why this line has moved roughly 7 points toward the Titans since the opening line. 

It looks like all the best players for the Texans will sit.  That includes QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt and there will likely be more.  The product the Texans put on the field won’t be good at all, and I expect the Titans to win this game easily by a TD or more and likely by double-digits. 

Tennessee actually sat some players last week, including RB Derrick Henry, against the Saints last week.  That game actually didn’t matter to them.  They knew that this Week 17 game was going to be their only chance of making the playoffs because it would give them the tiebreaker with the Steelers.  They already have the tiebreaker over the Raiders. 

The Titans still nearly beat the Saints and probably should have last week if not for a fumble when they were going in to take the lead in the closing minutes.  But now getting Henry back is huge for this team.  The Titans have been a juggernaut running the football down the stretch.  They have rushed for 169.4 yards per game in their last seven games. 

Ryan Tannehill has played at an MVP level since taking over for Marcus Mariota.  He is completing 70.7% of his passes for 2,544 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Titans will be able to name their number against this Texans defense. 

Houston really should be 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They were beaten by 14 by the Broncos, won by 3 over the Titans and won by 3 over the Bucs.  But they lost the stats in all three games.  The Broncos hung 38 points on them, the Titans outgained them by 42 yards and the Bucs outgained them by 206 yards despite not having their top two receivers. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - off two consecutive road wins, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Titans Sunday. 

Note: I'm expecting the Texans to rest their starters since they clinched the division last week.  Bet this line as soon as it's available at your book. It's a 25* up to Titans -6.5, a 20* at anything worse.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -4 

The Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-8 on the season.  They are clearly motivated to win in Week 17 to get to .500 on the season, because 8-8 sounds much better than 7-9.  And they showed that last week by crushing the Carolina Panthers 38-6 at home. 

Now the Colts go on the road to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has all but quit.  The Jaguars are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits.  They are failing to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game during this stretch. 

The Colts beat the Jaguars 33-13 at home in their first meeting this season, and they should be able to go on the road and beat a hapless Jaguars team by more than 4 points.  The Jaguars know that they are likely lose all of their coaches in the offseason and it’s just a team in turmoil right now, which explains their disastrous finish. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - after playing a home game against an opponent that is off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC South opponents.  Indianapolis is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite.  The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and lost their last two home games by 35 to the Chargers and by 17 to the Bucs.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +4.5 

The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17.  They will be resting starters, and they should not be favored over the New York Jets as a result.  They are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the No. 4 seed, which will likely be the Houston Texans. 

The New York Jets are playing well down the stretch.  They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall.  They just upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 as 3-point home underdogs last week.  And they are looking to cap off a 6-2 run to finish the 2019 season and build momentum heading into next year. 

The Bills will just run, run and run some more to try and get this game over with.  Well, the Jets have the answer for Buffalo’s running game.  Indeed, the Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 87.9 rushing yards per game.  They are also 1st in the NFL in allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. 

Plays on road teams (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet the Jets Sunday. 

Note: I expect the Bills to rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17.  Bet this line as soon as it comes out at your book. It's a 20* up to Jets -3, a 15* at anything worse.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER On Cincinnati Bengals +3 

The Cincinnati Bengals locked up the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft with their loss to the Dolphins last week.  A win won’t hurt them now as they are in line to draft Joe Burrow.  They will be motivated to beat their division and in-state rival in the Cleveland Browns Sunday. 

The Bengals showed last week that they are still trying.  They erased a 16-point deficit in the final minute of that Miami game with two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions to force overtime.  It definitely would have been the worst beat all-time if the Dolphins had not gone on to win in overtime. 

The Browns are a dumpster fire.  They lost two weeks ago as favorites at Arizona by a final of 24-38.  They gave up 38 points and 445 total yards to the Cardinals.  And last week they lost by 16 at home to the Ravens.  They managed just 241 total yards and gave up 481 yards, getting outgained by 240 yards by the Ravens.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Bengals in Week 17 as they were the Ravens last week. 

The Bengals want revenge from a 19-27 loss at Cleveland earlier this month.  Cincinnati really deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Browns 451 to 333, or by 118 total yards.  But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, either kicking FG’s or coming up short on 4th downs.  And keep in mind Andy Dalton did not play in that game, but he is playing now and wants to show teams that he can still be a starter in this league. 

Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 100-53 (65.4%) ATS since 1983.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 4-15 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last three years.  The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday. 

15* Clemson/Ohio State Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson -2 

I realize this is a very evenly-matched games when you look at the numbers.  Both Clemson and LSU are outscoring opponents by 36 points per game on the season.  They have nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers as well.  But there are several key advantages for Clemson that makes me believe they’ll win this game by a field goal or more over Ohio State. 

First and foremost, the Tigers have a huge coaching edge.  Dabo Swinney has proven himself time and time again in these big games, going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban and Alabama and taking him down twice in the national title game in recent years.  He beat Urban Meyer and Ohio State the last time he faced them in the playoff, 31-0 back in 2016.  Ryan Day did a tremendous job at Ohio State this season, but he is overmatched here against Swinney. 

Secondly, Clemson has the advantage at quarterback.  Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start this season, but then showed why he was the Heisman favorite coming into the year by dominating down the stretch.  Indeed, Lawrence had a 20-to-0 TD/INT ratio over his final six games of the season.  Justin Fields struggled a bit against Penn State and Wisconsin in his final two games of the season with a knee injury.  He says he is only 80-85% healthy coming into this Fiesta Bowl.  He hasn’t been here before, while Lawrence led Clemson to the national title last year. 

Swinney is 11-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson.  Clemson is 9-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game this season.  Clemson is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 December games.  The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Roll with Clemson Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma/LSU Peach Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -13.5 

The LSU Tigers went 13-0 this season to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the college football playoff.  They have had no problem winning by margin this season as 11 of their 13 wins have come by 14 points or more.  So I have no problem laying the 13.5 points in the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma. 

LSU showed no signs of slowing down late in the season.  Each of their final four wins came by 21 points or more.  That includes their 43-point win over Texas A&M in the regular season finale, which was one of the single-most impressive wins in all of college football.  Then they blasted Georgia by 27 in the SEC Championship. 

Oklahoma is far and away the worst team in the four-team playoff and probably doesn’t deserve to be here.  The Sooners were fortunate in close games once again this year, going 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  I expect Oklahoma to get exposed in the four-team playoff once again this year. 

A big reason Oklahoma played so many close games is because they once again have a poor defense, which gives them little to no chance of competing against elite teams like LSU.  Oklahoma will be missing two of its best players on defense in DE Ronnie Perkins and S Delarrin Turner-Yell. 

Perkins was suspended, and Turner-Yell was injured in bowl practices leading up to the game.  Perkins is their best pass rusher, and Turner-Yell is their second-leading tackler.  Both will be missed as Oklahoma tries to slow down this juggernaut of an LSU offense that puts up 48 points and 554 yards per game.  Heisman winner Joe Burrow is completing 78% of his passes with a 48-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. teams that average 30 or more points per game.  LSU is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  LSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Take LSU Saturday. 

20* Memphis/Penn State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -7 

Memphis head coach Mike Norvell has bolted for Florida State.  I think the Tigers will miss his guidance, leadership and offensive mind heading into this bowl game against Penn State.  Offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield will coach the bowl and will be overmatched by James Franklin at Penn State. 

Penn State gets back QB Sean Clifford from injury after getting hurt against Ohio State in the next-to-last game of the season.  He sat out the Rutgers game, but he’s back now.  And I’m backing a Penn State team that played a much tougher schedule (43rd) than Memphis (71st) this season.  Their only two losses were to 10-win teams in Ohio State and Minnesota, and both losses were on the road. 

Penn State will win the battle in the trenches in this one, especially on defense.  Memphis hasn’t seen a defense nearly as good as the one they will face here in the Nittany Lions, who give up just 14.1 points per game this season.  They will be able to slow down QB Brady White and this Memphis offense. 

Memphis is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 December games.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games as an underdog.  Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.  Penn State is 20-9-2 ATS in its last 21 against a team with a winning record.  Outright winners have gone 16-0-1 ATS in the last 17 Cotton Bowls, and I don’t expect the spread to come into play in this one either as the Nittany Lions win by double-digits.  Bet Penn State Saturday. 

20* Washington State/Air Force Cheez-It Bowl BAILOUT on Air Force -2.5 

I’ve been riding Air Force quite a bit this season and I’ll continue to do so in the Cheez-It Bowl against Washington State.  The Falcons went 10-2 this season with their only losses coming against a pair of 10-win teams in Boise State and Navy.  They beat a Pac-12 opponent outright as a road underdog in Colorado, 30-23. 

I’ll back the better running team and the more motivated team here in the Falcons.  It’s the first bowl for Air Force since 2016, so they are excited to be here.  They average 293 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd in the nation.  And they’re up against an awful Washington State defense that gives up 31.4 points and 457 yards per game, including 170 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. 

Washington State absolutely never sees the triple-option, and they certainly do not have the personnel to prepare for it in bowl practices.  Their players won’t be excited to be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl this year after winning 10 games and getting to play in the Alamo Bowl last year.  And they won’t be excited trying to prepare to face the triple-option because they won’t be looking forward to getting cut blocked the whole game. 

Air Force does boast a really good defense that gives up just 19.7 points per game this year.  They are holding opponents to nearly 8 points per game less than their season averages.  The Falcons only give up 208 passing yards per game as well.  And one of the big reasons Air Force is so improved this season is because they actually have a passing game, averaging 131 passing yards per game and 13.8 per attempt. 

Mike Leach is not a good bowl coach, either.  He is 1-4 ATS as the coach of Washington State and 1-8 ATS in his last nine bowl games dating back to his time at Texas Tech.  Pac-12 teams are just 1-5 ATSin the last six Cheez-It Bowls, and Pac-12 teams are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 bowl games coming into this season.  The Falcons are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Air Force Friday. 

20* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5.5 

I like Texas A&M quite a bit in the Texas Bowl Friday. The Aggies are perhaps the best 7-5 team in the country, and Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy even acknowledged it saying the same thing leading up to this game.  I know he was doing it for gamesmanship reasons, but he’s not wrong. 

Indeed, all five of Texas A&M’s losses this season came to teams that are ranked inside the Top 10 in Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings.  They lost to three #1 teams at the time they played them in Clemson, Alabama and LSU.  They also lost to Georgia and Auburn. 

The good news for Texas A&M is that Oklahoma State is nowhere near the Top 10.  The Cowboys only beat two bowl teams en route to an 8-4 finish in Kansas State and Iowa State.  They were fortunate to beat West Virginia as they managed just 285 total yards on the Mountaineers in their second-to-last game of the season.  And they were blasted by 18 at home by Oklahoma in their season finale while amassing only 335 total yards. 

Texas A&M is 7-0 against non-Top 10 teams while winning by a whopping 25.4 points per game this season.  The Aggies have the edge defensively in this matchup.  They give up just 22.7 points per game and 341 yards per game on the season.  Oklahoma State has the much worse defense, yielding 27 points per game and 418 yards per game. 

I believe the Aggies come in playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They finished the season with two road losses at Georgia and at LSU.  They want to end their season on a winning note, and Jimbo Fisher 6-2 in his career in bowl games, including last season’s 52-13 dismantling of NC State. 

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG) after seven-plus games, after a loss by 17 points or more are 53-19 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Texas A&M is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.  Bet Texas A&M Friday. 

15* UNC/Temple Military Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on UNC -4.5 

The North Carolina Tar Heels are excited to be playing in the Military Bowl.  They won their final two games of the season to get to 6-6 and qualify for their first bowl since 2016.  They certainly want to send Mack Brown out a winner in his first season back to coaching because his players love him. I know I’m going to get a max motivated team here, and Brown is 13-8 in bowl games in his career. 

No question UNC was better than its 6-6 record would indicate this season.  In fact, all six of their losses came by 7 points or less.  That includes their 1-point loss to Clemson.  They were the only team in the country to take Clemson down to the wire this year.  They have an explosive offense that puts up 31.2 points and 469 yards per game.  They only gave up 382 yards per game defensively, outgaining opponents by 87 yards per game. 

Temple went 8-4 this season, but their only significant wins all came at home.  They lost on the road to Buffalo by 16, to SMU by 24 and to Cincinnati by 2.  They were also blasted at home by UCF by 42 points.  Their non-conference wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland certainly don’t look nearly as good now as they did at the beginning of the season. 

I definitely to not trust Temple head coach Rod Carey in bowl games.  Carey is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS lifetime in bowl games as a head coach.  His teams are losing by 25 points per game straight up on average, and failing to cover the spread by 18 points per game on average.  Favorites are 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in the last 11 Military Bowls. 

Teams with three or fewer wins the previous season (UNC 2-9) have gone 17-3 ATS the last four seasons in bowl games.  The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Roll with North Carolina Friday. 

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisiana Tech +6.5 

Louisiana Tech is one of only two teams entering the bowl season with five consecutive bowl wins the last five years; Wisconsin is the other.  LA Tech head coach Skip Holtz is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games at LA Tech with four of those wins coming by 17 points or more.  He clearly has this whole bowl prep thing figured out, pushing the right buttons with his players. 

LA Tech will have no problem getting motivated to face a storied program like Miami.  Not to mention, this will essentially feel like a home game for LA Tech considering it will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana.  Motivation and location will be on their side. 

A program like Miami cannot be excited to be playing in the Independence Bowl.  Miami ended the season with two huge upset losses to Florida International as 21-point favorites and to Duke as 8-point favorites.  They also nearly lost to Central Michigan as 30.5-point favorites earlier in the season.  Head coach Manny Diaz clearly isn’t getting his team’s attention as they aren’t responding to him.  It was a bad hire, plain and simple.  And many of his players may be sitting out either due to injury or to prepare for the NFL. 

Louisiana Tech probably would have gone 11-1 this season if not for suspension to two of their best players.  QB Jamar Smith and WR Adrian Hardy both out out in their losses to Marshall and UAB, which likely cost them the C-USA title.  Both returned for the season finale and led the Bulldogs to 41 points in a win over UTSA.  And now the Bulldogs want to cap off their season on a positive note with 10 wins and an upset victory over Miami. 

Miami is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three years.  LA Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight bowl games.  The Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday. 

15* BYU/Hawaii Christmas Eve ANNIHILATOR on BYU -1.5 

The BYU Cougars played a much tougher schedule than Hawaii this year.  They beat the likes of USC, Tennessee, Boise State and Utah State, which are four teams that are better than anyone Hawaii has beaten this year. 

Hawaii lost badly to Boise State twice losing by 22 and 21 points.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-4 this season, but only two of those wins came against bowl teams in Nevada and San Diego State, which are two teams that aren’t very good anyway.  I just think this is a big step up in class for Hawaii and they have failed every time they’ve stepped up in class. 

BYU owns Hawaii, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars will take this bowl game seriously as it is a great destination for them.  Plus, the Cougars are a veteran team with grown men with the way thinks work at BYU.  They won’t be distracted at all in Hawaii. 

BYU has been through three different quarterbacks this year.  If they had stayed healthy all season, they probably would have finished even better than 7-5.  But they finally have some stability at the position now with QB Zach Wilson starting the final few games of the year, and he’ll make the start here. 

I’ll gladly back the better defense and the more physical team that played the tougher schedule laying a short number in this matchup.  BYU gave up just 24.4 points per game this season, including 22.0 points per game on the road.  Hawaii gave up 31.7 points per game this season, including 32.6 points per game and 461.9 yards per game at home.  BYU will get key stops, while Hawaii will not, and their physicality will be tested big-time. 

Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons.  I think the Rainbow Warriors could still be deflated from losing to Boise State in the MWC Title game.  Hawaii is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two years.  Hawaii is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  The Rainbow Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. MWC opponents. Take BYU Tuesday. 

20* Packers/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Vikings want to stay alive in the NFC North title race.  To do so, they will have to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football.  They will be highly motivated because of it, plus they want revenge from a 16-21 loss at Green Bay in their first meeting this season. 

That was certainly a misleading final as the Vikings deserved to win the game.  They outgained the Packers 421 to 335 total yards but committed four turnovers.  One was a pick in the end zone when they were going in for the potential game-winning score in the 4th quarter.  They haven’t forgotten, and now it’s their turn for payback. 

The Packers are one of the most fraudulent 11-3 teams I’ve ever seen.  They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 47 points on the season.  To compare, Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 119 points on the year.  Now that’s the sign of an elite team.  Green Bay has simply been fortunate in close games, going 7-1 in one-score games this season. 

Minnesota is 10-4, but three of its losses have come by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  Eight of their 10 wins have come by double-digits, so they are every bit as good as their record, if not better.  And it means they know how to get margin when they need it, so I’m not concerned at all about laying the 5 points here. 

Another way to see how fraudulent the Packers are is to compare their yardage differential, not just point differential.  The Packers are actually getting outgained by 34.5 yards per game on the season.  They rank 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense.  I am pretty certain I’ve never seen an 11-3 team that ranks worse than 20th in both categories.  The Vikings are 10th in total offense and 14th in total defense, outgaining teams by 33.7 yards per game. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on favorites (Minnesota) - after having won three of their last four games when playing a hot team that’s won eight or more of their last 10 games are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Packers are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.   

Mike Zimmer is 22-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Minnesota.  The Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Monday. 

20* Marshall/UCF Gasparilla Bowl No-Brainer on Marshall +17.5 

Marshall is very familiar with the Gasparilla Bowl as they will be playing in it for the second straight year and their third time in five years.  They are happy to be playing a team the caliber of UCF, so motivation certainly won’t be in question for them. 

I do question UCF’s motivation.  The Knights played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl each of the last two seasons facing Auburn in the Peach Bowl and LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.  This Gasparilla Bowl is a big step down in prestige, and they cannot possibly be motivated to face Marshall this postseason. 

UCF has been overvalued all season and especially down the stretch.  The Knights are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have been consistently laying too many points, and they are again here against Marshall. 

Marshall has been a postseason juggernaut.  Indeed, the Thundering Herd are 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games overall.  Head coach Doc Holiday is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in bowl games at Marshall, so he clearly takes these games seriously and knows the right buttons to push to get his teams ready.  The Thundering Herd have won those six bowl games by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.  UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last neutral site games.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  Marshall is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games on grass.  The Thundering Herd are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.  Roll with Marshall Monday. 

20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch.  That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy.  The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games. 

Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game.  The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one. 

And that’s even if the Bears actually show up.  I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week.  That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. 

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more.  They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now. 

The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also.  They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel.  And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now. 

The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5 

The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen.  They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season.  They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games.  Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season. 

A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’.  But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season.  Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday. 

The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too.  On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs.  They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense.  Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension. 

The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week.  That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them.  Everything will be on the line next week, not this week.  And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home.  They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs.  They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season. 

I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is.  Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D.  The back door will always be open if we need it. 

The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS.  And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs.  They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa.  Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints. 

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle.  Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3 

The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today.  They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  And they’ve delivered. 

The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading.  A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans.  It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston. 

Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt.  The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season.  They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games. 

The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football.  It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game.  The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention. 

The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not.  The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers.  They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well. 

New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in.  The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. 

Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5 

I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR.  I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck.  And the 49ers lost outright. 

I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled.  They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all.  Now they can’t afford another loss.  It’s simple for the 49ers now.  Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC.  They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more. 

The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week.  Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs.  They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs.  It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it.  So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas. 

It wasn’t just any loss, either.  The Cowboys throttled them 44-21.  And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was.  Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game. 

Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet.  He became check down Charlie after that.  I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all.  Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman. 

San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed.  The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards.  They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt. 

When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled.  They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back.  When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again.  The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either. 

The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

15* Saturday Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Boise State UNDER 49 

This game between Washington and Boise State will be played close to the vest.  Washington coach Chris Petersen has said he will retire following this game.  And he takes on his former team in Boise State.  This game means a lot to both teams, and I think defense wins out. 

These are two very good defenses as Washington allows just 20.4 points per game this season, while Boise State gives up only 20.6 points per game.  Washington held opponents to 8.0 points per game less than their season averages this season, while Boise State limited foes to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages. 

Helping out this UNDER will be two key players who are sitting out for Washington.  LT Trey Adams will sit out to prepare for the NFL.  But the bigger loss is TE Hunter Bryant, who will also sit out to get ready for the pros. Bryant is Washington’s leading receiver with 52 receptions for 825 yards on the season.  He will be missed in the passing game. 

Boise State is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Huskies last seven neutral site games as a favorite.  Boise State is 9-1 UNDER after having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games off a conference game over the last two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Bowl BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -3 

I question Florida Atlantic’s motivation.  The Owls lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss, and he took some of his staff with him.  And the players know that Willie Taggart will be their coach next year.  I don’t expect them to take this bowl game too seriously.  Plus, they have to stay at home instead of going to a destination bowl, which I look at as a negative.  Oddsmakers are giving the Owls too many points for home-field advantage. 

SMU was really close to being 12-0 this season.  The Mustangs’ only two losses both came on the road to Memphis and Navy by 6 and 7 points, respectively.  Those are two 10-win teams.  You know that this veteran team that returned 16 starters wants to end their season on a high not with 11 wins.  They will be motivated. 

SMU played a schedule that ranked 75th in the country while FAU played a schedule that ranked 115th.  That’s a 40-spot difference in strength of schedule.  The Mustangs are the most battle-tested team by far, and FAU doesn’t have any wins against a team the caliber of SMU this season.  They lost to Ohio State in the opener by 24, then were thumped by UCF 14-48 at home, a fellow AAC team with SMU.  The Mustangs beat North Texas 49-27, a fellow C-USA team to FAU. 

Sonny Dykes is 14-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  FAU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  We’re getting the better team with the better motivation laying only 3 points in this bowl game, which is a huge discount.  Bet SMU Saturday.

Note: I took SMU -3 before the suspensions came out for FAU.  I still like SMU up to -10.  The suspensions are worth at least 7 points.  FAU will be without its top 3 receivers, including TE Harrison Bryant, the Mackey Award winner for the nation's best TE.  FAU doesn't have another played eligible who caught more than 15 passes this season.  Leading tackler Keke Leroy will be missed.  He had 101 tackles, five forced fumbles and three INT this season.  And leading rusher Malcolm Davidson (711 yards) is out.

20* Kent State/Utah State Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on Kent State +6 

Kent State will be playing in just their 2nd bowl game since 1972.  They are excited to be here, especially when you look at the gauntlet they had to go through to get here.  They had to face Arizona State, Auburn & Wisconsin all on the road in non-conference play. 

The Golden Flashes opened 3-6 before winning their final three games all in upset fashion over Buffalo, Ball State & Eastern Michigan.  6-6 teams off a SU win as an underdog are 70% ATS since 2000.  This bowl trend makes sense to me because these teams had to pull an upset in their final game to get here, so they clearly want to be here.  And Kent State just pulled three straight upsets.  They have been undervalued all season with an 8-4 ATS mark.  And I think they’re being undervalued again here. 

Utah State went from winning 11 games last year to going just 7-5 this year and having to play Kent State in the Frisco Bowl.  I don’t think they’re too excited to be here.  And clearly their players aren’t taking it too seriously.  QB Jordan Love, RB Gerold Bright & WR Sean Carter were cited for pot possession over the weekend. 

Love is a potential first-round draft pick and has stated he will be skipping his senior season.  But he has struggled this year with a 17-to-16 TD/INT ratio.  Bright is their leading rusher with 827 yards and 8 touchdowns.  Early indications are all three players will play, otherwise we’d see a much bigger line move.  But it’s not going to matter.  If would be an added bonus if they sit. 

The only four teams Utah State beat by more than 6 points this year were Stony Brook, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada.  Only one of those was a bowl team in Nevada, and they aren’t very good.  Utah State gave up 35 points per game over their final six games and have a leaky defense.  Kent State has scored at least 30 points in five of its last six and will expose that leaky defense. 

Sean Lewis is 6-0 ATS in road games against poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game as the coach of Kent State.  Kent State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS when the total is 63 or higher over the last two seasons.  Bowl teams that won three or fewer games the previous season have gone 16-2 ATS over the last three years in bowl games.  Bet Kent State Friday. 

15* Buffalo/Charlotte 2019 Bowl Season Opener on Buffalo -6.5 

The Buffalo Bulls are in search of their first bowl win in program history.  The Charlotte 49ers are just happy to be in their first ever bowl game.  I think the Bulls are the superior team in this matchup, and the weather conditions with near-30 mile per hour winds in the Bahamas will favor the Bulls. 

I would argue that Buffalo was the best team in the MAC even though they didn’t win the MAC title.  They went 5-3 in MAC play with all three losses called into question.  They outgained MAC champ Miami Ohio by by 133 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 in their loss to the Redhawks.  They only lost 20-21 to Ohio as 3-point dogs despite outgaining the Bobcats by 37 yards.  And they blew a 27-6 lead to Kent State in the final eight minutes to lost 27-30. 

That’s how close the Bulls were to being 8-0 in MAC play.  Not to mention, they beat Temple 38-22 as 14-point dogs in non-conference, and actually led Penn State at halftime on the road and hung right with the Nittany Lions in the stat department.  They actually outgained Penn State by 72 yards in a misleading final. 

Buffalo comes in having scored 43-plus points in four of their last five games overall.  The Bulls rely on their ground attack that has produced two 1,000-yard rushers.  They rush for 254 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  With the high winds in the Bahamas, the team that runs the ball better will win and cover this game. 

Charlotte also has a solid ground attack at 210 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  However, it’s on defense where Buffalo has the huge advantage.  The Bulls only allow 95 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.  Charlotte gives up a whopping 193 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  The 49ers have the better passing attack, but that will be a non-factor in this weather. 

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS off three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Take Buffalo Friday. 

20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They have lost five of their last six games overall.  They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games.  That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs. 

Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less.  The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee.  Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game. 

The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice.  They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal.  They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game.  I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now. 

New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now.  It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week.  They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers.  They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week.  This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks. 

New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season.  The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season.  Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer.  I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it. 

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.   

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games.  The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.  Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Bet the Colts Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5 

This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL.  They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road.  Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week. 

That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them.  Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks.  I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home.  And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks. 

The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too.  They lost center Weston Richburg for the season.  They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries.  They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk.  They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year. 

The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out.  They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them.  They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home.  They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents. 

The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win.  They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks.  I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.  Bet the Falcons Sunday. 

15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK 

The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them.  The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East.  The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks. 

The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now.  The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.  They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs.  They’re playing like a hungry team, too. 

The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards.  And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks.  They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards.  They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6. 

Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons.  And they are shutting teams down defensively.  I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys.  The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. 

The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record.  The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents.  Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record. 

I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them.  We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon.  Take the Rams Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3 

The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals.  The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week. 

Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals.  They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them.  Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game.  But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone.  To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense. 

Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss.  The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers.  And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week. 

Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss.  The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Cardinals Sunday. 

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South.  Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today. 

If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week.  It didn’t happen.  The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road.  That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive. 

Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season.  Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch. 

Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt.  The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week.  They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late.  The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup. 

Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Titans Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10 

I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots.  That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week.  Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them.  They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax. 

We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week.  Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos.  Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum. 

Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24.  It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points.  They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant.  He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.  Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late.  They have lost three of their last five home games outright.  The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season.  Bet the Broncos Sunday. 

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy -10 

The Navy Midshipmen have a chance to win 10 games with a victory over Army.  And you can bet they want revenge from three straight losses to the Black Knights by seven points or less.  It’s time for the Midshipmen to return to their dominance in this series. 

It has been a tremendous bounce-back season for Navy.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their 11 games this year, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.  Their offense has lit up opponents for 39.3 points per game, and their defense is greatly improved in allowing just 24.2 points per game. 

Army has come back down to early this season with a 5-7 record.  They will not be going to a bowl game after losing by 21 at Hawaii in their final game of the season, which was a poor showing against a Rainbow Warriors team that didn’t have anything to play for.  Army had everything to play for as they needed a win there to make a bowl game.  They wouldn't get in at 6-7 now. 

Army went 5-7 despite playing the 124th-ranked schedule in the country according to Sagarin.  Navy played a much tougher slate in the AAC as their schedule ranked 73rd.  Navy is also 18 points better than Army on a neutral field according to Sagarin, and I have to agree he’s pretty close.  That’s why I’m laying the double-digits here with the Midshipmen, among the other motivational reasons. 

Navy is holding opponents to just 110 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They are holding foes to 63 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season average.  Army is giving up 4.2 per carry this season and hasn’t faced many good rushing attacks.  Army is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points.  Bet Navy Saturday. 

20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17 

The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC.  This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight. 

The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week. 

I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now.  Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley.  Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury.  QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him.  And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread. 

I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position.  Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC. 

It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates.  The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game.  Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level. 

The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets.  New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game.  More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry.  They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole. 

Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bet the Jets Thursday. 

20* Giants/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +10 

The New York Giants would love nothing more than to wreck the Philadelphia Eagles’ season.  The Eagles are doing plenty of that on their own, and there’s no way they should be double-digit favorites here against a division rival. 

The Eagles are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost to the Patriots 10-17 at home and to the Seahawks 9-17 at home.  And last week was the ultimate embarrassment, giving up 37 points in a loss to the Dolphins as 10-point road favorites.  There are problems on the Eagles that aren’t fixable, and especially in their secondary. 

The Giants should be motivated here with the return of Eli Manning at quarterback.  They want to send their veteran out the right way, and Manning wants to prove that he can still get it done.  Playing this soft Eagles secondary will certainly help matters.  Plus, the Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate from injury this week to give Manning another weapon. 

The Giants are coming off a misleading 13-31 home loss to the Packers.  Daniel Jones gave the game away with interceptions as the Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0.  But the Giants only gave up 322 total yards to the Packers and actually outshined them by 13 yards in the game. 

New York has always been a better road team than home team.  The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field.  The Eagles haven’t beaten the Giants by more than 5 points in any of the last three meetings in Philadelphia.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

20* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams +1 

The Seattle Seahawks have the worst point differential (+36) of any 10-2 or better team in the history of the NFL.  That’s because they have gone 9-1 in one-score games this year.  They have been extremely fortunate in close games and are nowhere near as good as their record as a result.  This is more like a 7-5 team at best. 

A lot of Seahawks backers will say that Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’ so they should win more close games.  That’s simply not true.  In fact, coming into this season, Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career.  The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a fraudulent, fortunate team that is now overvalued due to their record. 

The Seahawks were 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with the Rams this season.  Now they are 1-point road favorites.  If you adjust for home-field advantage, which is usually close to a 6-point swing, the Seahawks should be 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch.  I think there’s a ton of value getting the Rams as home underdogs tonight. 

Keep in mind the Rams deserved to beat the Seahawks in that first meeting.  They lost 29-30 only after Greg Zurlein missed a 43-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have won the game for the Rams.  Now, Los Angeles wants revenge on the Seahawks, and their season is essentially on the line tonight.  The Seahawks can afford to lose this game knowing that they have a later meeting with the 49ers that will likely decide the division champ. 

The Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season as Jared Goff now has his full compliment of weapons on offense.  That showed last week as the Rams went into Arizona and won 34-7 against a Cardinals team off their bye week.  The Rams racked up 549 total yards in the win while holding the Cardinals to just 198 total yards, outgaining them by 351 yards.  Goff went 32-of-43 passing for 424 yards with two touchdowns in the win, and Todd Gurley carried 19 times for 95 yards and a score to prove he is just fine health-wise. 

This game means everything to Rams because they have tough road games at Dallas and San Francisco coming up the next two weeks.  If they want to make the playoffs, they have to win this game.  And they should be fresh after blowing out the Cardinals.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a short week here after playing in a grueling, physical 37-30 home win against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday. 

The Seahawks are frauds because they rank 24th in total defense in allowing 368.9 yards per game this season.  And Goff and the Rams always diced up this defense.  They have scored 29 or more points in four straight games against the Seahawks while averaging 35 points per game in those four meetings.  And stopping the run is the key to stopping the Seahawks.  The Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 3.7 yards per carry. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Seattle) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS when playing on six or fewer days’ rest this season.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 NFC games.  Sean McVay is 6-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes time of possession and 24-plus first downs last game as the coach of the Rams.  Bet the Rams Sunday. 

15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in. 

This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win.  They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis.  It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD.  That 10-point swing was the difference in the game.  The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves. 

The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs.  They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City.  But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards.  It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it. 

Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season.  They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs.  Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done. 

This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans.  They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South.  Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week.  In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week.  I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week. 

Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.   

The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss.  Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6 

This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday.  That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.  The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week.  And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.

Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers.  And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full.  The betting public just continues to hammer this team.  I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs.  This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.

The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year.  And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now.  Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.

Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday.  That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs.  Yet nobody wants to believe in them.  I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.

The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league.  The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games.  Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on.  The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5 

It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago.  The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.  

 It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now.  Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets.  They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable. 

The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week.  They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards. 

The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite.  The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents.  The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts +3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost four of their last five games coming in.  And it’s a great spot to ’sell high’ on the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have won three of their last four coming in. 

The Colts’ four losses here recently can all be explained.  They lost to three potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans and Titans.  They had Brian Hoyer at QB for two of those losses to Miami and Pittsburgh.  They played the Texans tough in a 3-point road loss.  And last week’s 17-31 loss to the Titans was misleading as they had a 10-point swing when they were kicking a FG to go in the lead and had it blocked and returned for a TD with five minutes left.  They also outgained the Titans by 99 yards and deserved to win. 

The Bucs are playing much better, but keep in mind their three wins during this stretch came against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals, Falcons and Jaguars.  Their lone loss was a 17-34 home loss to the Saints.  Now the Bucs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as 3.5-point favorites here against a playoff contender in the Colts. 

This just feels like a ‘rally the troops’ type of game for the Colts.  They need a win to stay alive to win the AFC South, and they should get some help this week with the return of Marlon Mack at running back.  The Colts racked up 391 total yards on the Titans last week and now get Mack back.  They should be able to dice up a weak Tampa Bay defense that give up 28.8 points per game overall. 

The Bucs have actually played their worst football at home this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS at home this year with their only win coming 30-27 over the Cardinals in comeback fashion.  They are giving up 31.0 points per game at home.  The Colts have the much better defense and have been competitive on the road, giving up just 21.2 points per game on the highway this year and 21.4 points per game overall. 

The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Bucs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC South opponents.  The Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Tampa Bay is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

20* Georgia/LSU SEC Championship No-Brainer on LSU -6.5 

LSU has been one of the three best teams in college football all season.  The Tigers have had few scares and have been in control in basically every game they’ve played from start to finish.  Their high-powered offense has only gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Tigers have scored 46 or more points in four straight games, including wins over Alabama & Texas A&M.  They are scoring 48.7 points per game and averaging 560.4 yards per game on the season.  It’s the best offense in school history, and not one I want to step in front of right now.  It will be the best offense that Georgia has seen yet this season, and it’s not really even close.  They certainly haven’t faced a QB and passing attack near the caliber of Heisman winner Joe Burrow and company.

Georgia definitely has one of the best defenses in the land.  But I question if Jake Fromm can keep up with LSU.  The Bulldogs have scored 27 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  Ed Orgeron said his defense hadn’t shown its best stuff yet heading into the Texas A&M game last week.  And the Tigers promptly beat the Aggies 50-7 and held them to 159 yards while forcing 3 turnovers.  A lot of the yardage and points the Tigers have given up have been in blowouts this season, so their season-long stats are a little misleading.  When they need stops, they can get them.

Georgia will be missing its leading receiver George Pickens for the 1st half due to suspension.  He has 33 receptions for 498 yards and six touchdowns this year.  Second-leading receiver Lawrence Cager is now out for the season with an ankle injury.  He has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four scores.  Not having these two will make Fromm’s job even more difficult.  Plus, leading rusher D’Andre Swift (1,203 yards, 7 TD) is nursing a shoulder injury.  One bad hit and he could be out of this game.

Ed Orgeron is 6-0 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams that average 32-plus possession minutes and 21-plus first downs as the coach of LSU.  Georgia will have to abandon its plan to run the football and control the clock in this one once they find themselves behind.  And Fromm isn’t good enough, nor does he have the weapons to play catch-up.  Take LSU Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Michigan -6.5 

Central Michigan could be found as high as 300-1 to win the MAC after losing to Wisconsin 61-0 in their 2nd game of the season.  They’ve been money makers ever since and grossly undervalued all season.  And now they are the favorites to win the MAC title for good reason.

The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have been dominant statistically in MAC play, outgaining opponents by 168 yards per game.  Miami Ohio is actually getting outgained by 6 yards per game in MAC play this season.

The Redhawks didn’t play well down the stretch once they clinched the MAC title game.  They barely beat Akron 20-17 as 29-point favorites.  And last week they lost 27-41 to Ball State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed.  They were outgained by 303 yards by Ball State.

QB Brett Gabbert left that game with an injury and is questionable to return this week.  Backup QB Jackson Williamson went 4-for-11 for 52 yards with two interceptions in his place.  I don’t think it matters who starts for the Redhawks because they’ll get blown out either way.

Central Michigan has scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games overall.  The Chippewas are averaging 38 points & 515 yards per game in MAC play this season.  They are loaded at receiver and running back with great overall speed.  Their top two running backs in Ward and Lewis have combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns.  That will help them on the fast track at Ford Field in Detroit.  Plus, they will have the home-field advantage with a short drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit.

The Chippewas have the best defensive line in the MAC.  They give up just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  Miami Ohio allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  While these teams are pretty even defensively overall, there’s no question the Chippewas have a massive advantage on offense.  The Redhawks only average 24.6 points and 308.7 yards per game on the season, including 17.4 points and 281 yards per game on the road.

The Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Chippewas will cap off a tremendous turnaround from 1-11 to 9-4 with a blowout win over Miami Ohio and a MAC title.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lafayette/Appalachian State UNDER 56 

Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette will be facing each other for the 4th time in two seasons.  They met in the regular season and Sun Belt Championship Game last year, and they met in the regular season and will face each other again in the Sun Belt title game against this year. 

It’s safe to say these teams are familiar with one another, and familiarity favors the defenses.  That has proven to be the case in the three previous meetings.  The UNDER is 3-0 and has gone under the total by an average of 25 points per game in the previous three meetings.  They have combined for 44, 49 and 24 points in the three meetings, so you can see there’s value with the UNDER 56 tonight. 

In their first meeting this season, Appalachian State won 17-7 at LA-Lafayette.  The Mountaineers managed only 343 total yards with most of those coming on their final drive that sealed the win for them.  The Rajin’ Cajuns managed only 254 yards in the loss.  It will be more of the same here as both defenses win out in this one. 

Appalachian State is giving up just 18.7 points and 321.2 yards per game on the season, including 16.4 points and 277.6 yards per game in Sun Belt play.  Louisiana-Lafayette is giving p just 17.8 points per game on the season and 16.4 points per game in Sun Belt play.  Their numbers are nearly identical with Appalachian State, and both defenses are the reason these teams are in the title game. 

Louisiana-Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rajin’ Cajuns last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mountaineers last eight games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.