|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-23-13||New Mexico State +22.5 v. Florida Atlantic||10-55||Loss||-110||22 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Mexico State +22.5
New Mexico State is one of the most undervalued teams in all of college football right now in terms of the point spread due to its 1-9 record on the season. Oddsmakers have been forced to set their spreads to high in recent weeks, and they've done so again this week. The betting public wants nothing to do with a 1-9 team, which is the cause for the inflation. We'll take advantage Saturday.
The Aggies have played their best football of the season of late. They are coming off back-to-back losses, but were very competitive against quality opponents in the process. They lost 35-49 at LA Lafayette on November 2 as a 32.5-point underdog. They lost 34-48 at home against Boston College on November 9 as a 25-point dog. Now, they have had two weeks of rest to get ready for Florida Atlantic since that loss to the Eagles and to build off of their solid play during the bye week.
New Mexico State actually led LA-Lafayette 28-7 in that game before eventually losing by 14. It also outgained the Rajin' Cajuns 450-440 for the game. Andrew McDonald threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Against Boston College, it was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter. The Aggies would lose by 14 despite outgaining the Eagles 558-555 for the game. McDonald had another solid performance, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns in the loss.
I would certainly argue that Boston College and Louisiana-Lafayette are both better teams than Florida Atlantic, and you would be crazy if you thought otherwise. That's why the Owls have no business being a 22.5-point favorite in this game against an improved Aggies squad that is coming off two weeks of rest.
The reason FAU is getting so much love here is that it is coming off back-to-back blowout victories over Tulane and Southern Miss. I believe Tulane is one of the most overrated teams in college football, while Southern Miss is the worst team in the FBS, period. Those blowout wins were not impressive at all, but because they happened, the Owls are getting a lot of respect from the books here.
Florida Atlantic is only scoring 24.1 points and putting up 354.9 yards per game this season to rank 104th in the country in total offense. It takes a good offense to cover a big number like this, and the Owls are simply lacking one. New Mexico State comes in having posted 449, 450 and 558 total yards in its last three games overall, so it certainly has the offense to keep this game competitive. I also like some of the comments from head coach Doug Martin heading into this one as well.
"I love the mentality of our team and our players," Martin said. "They're fighting, they've got great character. Not many teams with one win play as hard as we do. Especially against Boston College and the talent level that team had. A lot of people have been appreciative of that. I think in those terms, we've certainly turned corner, as far as the mentality of the football team."
"It's going to be a great task. A challenge we're certainly looking forward too," Martin said of Saturday's contest. "To be able to win out for us would be a great momentum change, momentum shift for us going into recruiting. We're excited about the game."
Plays on road underdogs (NEW MEXICO ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1992. FAU is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points per game since 1992. The Owls are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after committing one or less turnovers in their previous game. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-23-13||Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5||30-6||Loss||-115||19 h 58 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +7.5
The Wildcats clearly are nowhere near as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, I would argue that this team is every bit as good as the one that won double-digit games last season. The only difference has been their record in close games, which has simply been atrocious. Five of their six losses have come by 10 points or less.
That 10-point loss to Ohio State was a 3-point game before the Buckeyes scored a garbage touchdown on special teams on the final play of the game, falling on a fumble in the end zone. Northwestern also lost by 8 points to Michigan last week, only because it went into triple overtime and the Wolverines got the 2-point conversion.
The other three close losses came to Minnesota (17-20), Iowa (10-17) and Nebraska (24-27) on a hail mary on the game's final play. The Wildcats easily could have won all five of those games, realistically only getting blown out once this season. That was on the road against Wisconsin, which was understandable because they were just coming off their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State the previous week.
With a chance to make a bowl game if they win their next two games, the Wildcats should be plenty motivated to put an end to this misery and get a win Saturday. Plus, teams who are coming off a multiple-overtime loss are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their next game in 2013. While many will be expecting Northwestern to fold, I'm not one of them. Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best head coaches in the country and he's an excellent motivator. He will have his troops ready to go at home Saturday.
Michigan State is coming off its biggest win of the season at Nebraska, and knowing that it can afford to lose one game and still win the Legends Division, it may have a hard time getting motivated to play Saturday. The Spartans could lose this game and still beat Minnesota at home next week to win the Legends Division. The Wildcats cannot lose or they won
|11-22-13||Navy +3 v. San Jose State||Top||58-52||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
20* Navy/San Jose State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +3
The Midshipmen clearly want revenge from their two losses to the Trojans over the past two seasons. Last year, in their 12-0 loss, they didn
|11-21-13||UNLV +3 v. Air Force||41-21||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on UNLV +3
The UNLV Rebels are extremely motivated to get to their first bowl game since 2000. They are clearly improved this year with a 5-5 record coming into this one. After suffering losses to San Jose State (24-34) and Utah State (24-28) over their past two games, the Rebels are certainly feeling a sense of urgency to get that all-important sixth victory. They don
|11-21-13||New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10||Top||17-13||Win||100||19 h 42 m||Show|
25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +10
While the Falcons are almost certainly out of the playoff hunt, they
|11-20-13||Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3||Top||35-17||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* NIU/Toledo MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Toledo +3
The Toledo Rockets will be out for revenge after narrow losses to Northern Illinois each of the past two seasons. They fell 63-60 at home against the Huskies in 2011, and lost 24-31 on the road last year. They have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. After taking care of business up to this point, the Rockets now control their own destiny in the MAC West. If they win out, they will win the division and play in the MAC Title game. They certainly will not be lacking any motivation because of it.
Toledo was very impressive in a 51-41 win over Buffalo last week. This was a 38-0 game early into the third quarter with the outcome basically decided. The Rockets packed it in from there, and allowed the Bulls to rack up a ton of points in garbage time to make the final score appear closer than it really was. Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns in the win, while Kareem Hunt added 186 rushing yards and a score.
This is a Toledo offense that is putting up 35.0 points and 456.1 yards per game against a very tough schedule this season. Its only losses have come on the road to the likes of Florida, Missouri and Ball State, and it hung tough in all three contests. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home this year, outscoring opponents by 17.8 points per game. Their strength defensively is a run defense that is giving up 160 yards per game on just 3.8 per carry. The key to a win will be stopping Jordan Lynch and NIU
|11-19-13||Buffalo v. Miami (OH) +24.5||Top||44-7||Loss||-105||9 h 14 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio +24.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is 0-10 on the season. That
|11-18-13||New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers||Top||20-24||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England +3
Give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team, and the Patriots are almost certainly going to be ready for everything Carolina has to offer. That will be the case Monday as the Patriots come off a bye following their most dominant performance of the season. They beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 at home last time out on November 3 behind a whopping 610 yards of total offense.
|11-17-13||Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Broncos NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City +8
Coming off their bye week, the Chiefs have had two full weeks to prepare for Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. That will be a huge advantage heading into this divisional showdown with first place in the AFC West on the line. That's especially the case when you consider that Andy Reid is 13-1 straight up off a bye as a head coach.
Adding to Denver's disadvantage is the fact that Peyton Manning is banged up. He was noticeably limping at the end of their 28-20 win at San Diego last week, and it
|11-17-13||San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -3||Top||20-23||Push||0||63 h 31 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Saints Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans -3
The Saints have been simply unstoppable at home this season. They are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread inside the Superdome with their smallest margin of victory coming by six points. They are scoring 35.2 points and giving up 15.0 points at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game. They certainly will be wanting revenge on the 49ers, who have beaten them each of the past two seasons.
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-17-13||Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Chicago Bears||20-23||Push||0||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Baltimore Ravens +3
The Baltimore Ravens have simply been unlucky in close games this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-5 record to this point. They have lost four times by six or fewer points, including three times by a field goal or less. Only twice in their nine games this year have they been beaten by more than a field goal. That trend right there shows you that there is some nice value in snagging the Ravens at +3 in this contest.
Baltimore kept its playoff and division title hopes alive last week with a huge 20-17 victory over Cincinnati. It led 17-0 and nearly blew the game as the Bengals tied it on a hail mary with no time left to force overtime. However, the Ravens would get the winning field goal in the extra session, and that
|11-17-13||Cleveland Browns +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||20-41||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the most improved teams in the league in 2013. Despite going through three different quarterbacks, they have a chance to pull within a half-game of Cincinnati for first place in the AFC North with a win Sunday.
Jason Campbell has played very well as a starter in his last two games. He threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-23 loss at Kansas City. Campbell threw for 262 yards and three scores in a 24-18 home win over Baltimore last time out on November 3.
As you can see, the Browns are coming off their bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for the Bengals. That will be a huge advantage heading into this one.
After already beating Cincinnati 17-6 at home on September 29 in their first meeting of the season, they
|11-17-13||Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles||16-24||Loss||-110||59 h 6 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Washington Redskins +4.5
This is clearly a must-win game for Washington, which cannot afford another loss if it wants to win back-to-back NFC East Titles. The good news is that the NFC East is down this season, with both Dallas and Philadelphia tied for first place with .500 records.
This is where Washington made its run last season, winning each of its final seven games after starting with an identical 3-6 record to finish 10-6. Having that memory in the back of their minds will serve the Redskins well going forward.
Washington will have a big edge in rest heading into this one. It last played on Thursday, November 7, losing 27-34 at Minnesota despite dominating that football game. In fact, the Redskins outgained the Vikings 433-307 but found a way to lose.
Offense certainly hasn
|11-16-13||Wyoming +24 v. Boise State||7-48||Loss||-110||51 h 58 m||Show|
15* Wyoming/Boise State ESPN 2 BAILOUT on Wyoming +24
The Boise State Broncos are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. They should not be a 23-point favorite over Wyoming. Down their starting quarterback, and certainly down from their level of play from year's past, the Broncos are way overvalued in this one.
This line is an overreaction from Boise State's 42-30 win at Colorado State last time out, coupled with Wyoming's 10-48 loss to Fresno State last game. The Broncos were actually outgained 437-626 by Colorado State, further showing that their defense is nowhere near as dominant as it has been in year's past.
Boise State is allowing 25.2 points and 437.7 yards per game this season to rank 95th in the country in total defense. It will have a hard time containing an explosive Wyoming offense that is averaging 33.6 points and 491.6 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total offense. Wyoming's ability to move the football and put points on the board will allow it to stay within this 23-point spread.
Wyoming quarterback Brett Smith is quietly having a monster season in the Mountain West. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,508 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 441 yards and three scores. Running back Shaun Wick is also having a big year, rushing for 823 yards and nine touchdowns on 6.5 per carry.
The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They have gone 3-1 against the spread in road games in 2013. They lost at Nebraska 34-37 as a 31-point underdog to open the season. They won at Air Force 56-23 as a 4-point favorite, and they only lost 44-51 at San Jose State as a 10.5-point underdog. Those three results right there show that Wyoming travels well.
Furthermore, Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is a sensational 17-4 against the spread as a road underdog as the coach of Wyoming. Wyoming is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games overall. Meanwhile, Chris Peterson is 0-6 against the number in home games after having won four or five of their last six games as the coach of Boise State. Peterson is also 0-6 against the spread in home games versus good rushing teams that average at least 200 rushing yards per game as the coach of Boise State.
The Broncos are 1-12 against the spread in home games after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Boise State is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. These last five trends combined for a 38-2 system backing the Cowboys. Take Wyoming Saturday.
|11-16-13||Oregon State +14 v. Arizona State||Top||17-30||Win||100||50 h 9 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +14
Off two straight losses to Stanford and USC, the Beavers will be hungry for a victory Saturday. That
|11-16-13||Alabama v. Mississippi State +25.5||20-7||Win||100||48 h 24 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Mississippi State +25.5
This is a huge letdown spot for Alabama. It is coming off arguably its biggest win of the season last Saturday in a 38-17 home victory over LSU. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was tied 17-17 in the third quarter before the Crimson Tide pulled away in the fourth.
It would be pretty easy for the Crimson Tide to overlook Mississippi State enough to fail to win by 26-plus points, which is what it would take to cover. We only have to look back to last year to find how Alabama responds after the LSU game. It beat LSU 21-17 on the road in 2012, then came back home the next week and lost to Texsa A&M 24-29 despite being a 13-point favorite.
|11-16-13||Texas Tech +28 v. Baylor||Top||34-63||Loss||-110||48 h 54 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +28
Texas Tech comes way undervalued due to its three-game losing streak. A closer look at the skid shows that the Red Raiders really had a chance to win all three games despite the final margins. They lost 30-38 at Oklahoma despite amassing 460 total yards. They committed three turnovers in that contest, which really put them in a hole that they just couldn
|11-16-13||Kentucky +13 v. Vanderbilt||6-22||Loss||-115||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13
Vanderbilt is in a huge letdown spot Saturday. It is coming off a 34-17 win at Florida last Saturday to put an end to a 22-game losing streak to the Gators. It's going to be very hard for them to come back emotionally to get ready for face a 2-7 Kentucky team that the Commodores will certainly be overlooking.
A closer look into the box score against Florida shows that Vanderbilt was very lucky to win, and that there's no way in hell it should have scored 34 points. In fact, the Commodores were outgained 183-344 by the Gators, which would normally equate to a blowout win in Florida's favor. But the Gators turned the ball over four times and gave the Commodores several easy scores.
Backup quarterback Patton Robinette only completed 6 of 12 passes for 57 yards against the Gators, so obviously he wasn't asked to do too much as Florida gave that game away. He'll have to do much more against Kentucky this week if the Commodores are going to win, let alone cover. Starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels remains doubtful with a knee injury. Robinette is only completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 421 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions on the season.
Kentucky is highly motivated to pick up its first SEC win of the season. It has played its best football on the road this year, only losing at South Carolina 28-35 despite being a 22-point underdog, and at Mississippi State 22-28 as a 12-point dog. If it can stay within a touchdown of both of those teams, then it certainly can stay within 13 of Vanderbilt Saturday.
Last week's game against Missouri was much closer than the final score would indicate. But because the Wildcats were blown out 17-48, and the Commodores are coming off a win at Florida, this line has been inflated due to public perception. The Wildcats were only outgained 369-426 by the Tigers last week in what was a 35-17 game entering the 4th quarter. Quarterback Jalen Whitlow was solid, completing 17 of 27 passes for 225 yards in the loss. It's nice to have him back and healthy again.
The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its last game. The Commodores are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bet Kentucky Saturday.
|11-15-13||Washington +3 v. UCLA||Top||31-41||Loss||-105||21 h 45 m||Show|
20* Washington/UCLA ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +3
Looking at the numbers, it
|11-14-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3||Top||30-27||Push||0||67 h 51 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +3
This is a huge game for Tennessee, which trails Indianapolis by two games for the AFC South lead. If it wants any chance to make the playoffs, it simply has to have this game Thursday. That
|11-14-13||Georgia Tech v. Clemson -10.5||31-55||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* GA Tech/Clemson ACC Thursday No-Brainer on Clemson -10.5
The Clemson Tigers have rebounded nicely from their lone loss of the season to Florida State. They have bounced back with back-to-back blowout road victories over Maryland (40-27) and Virginia (59-10). They are still playing for a shot at a BCS game, and if they win out, they
|11-13-13||Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||27-48||Loss||-105||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Ball State/NIU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +7.5
The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most underrated teams in the country in 2013. They have opened 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread with their only loss coming on the road against a quality North Texas team by seven points. They have been dominant in victory, too, as seven of their nine wins have come by 18 points or more. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game. They have played their best football on the road, going 4-1 against the spread while winning by 16.8 points per game.
Ball State is putting up 39.9 points and 475.7 yards per game to rank 25th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Keith Wenning is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 3,164 yards with 27 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Willie Snead has caught 74 balls for 1,175 yards and 12 scores. Jahwan Edwards has rushed for 749 yards and 12 touchdowns. The defense, which is only giving up 23.6 points per game, leads the country by forcing 26 turnovers on the season.
Sure, Northern Illinois has won four straight in this series, but Ball State has hung tough. The last time these teams met at Northern Illinois, Ball State lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 38-41. Last year, the Huskies won 35-23 at Ball State, but a closer look into the box score shows that the Cardinals probably should have won that game. They outgained the Huskies 563-509, and Wenning threw for 434 yards in the loss. Ball State held a 23-21 lead with under five minutes remaining before the Huskies tacked on two touchdowns in the closing minutes to pull away. Revenge is certainly on the Cardinals
|11-12-13||Buffalo +3.5 v. Toledo||Top||41-51||Loss||-110||23 h 16 m||Show|
20* Buffalo/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5
The Buffalo Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. After losing very tough road games to Ohio State and Baylor to open the season, which both remain unbeaten this year, the Bulls have responded by winning seven straight. In fact, their last six wins have come via blowout. They have beaten each of their last six opponents by 20 or more points, including last week
|11-11-13||Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3||Top||19-22||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Bucs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3
|11-10-13||Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6||17-49||Win||100||34 h 5 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Saints NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans -6
After losing at New York despite dominating the game last week, the New Orleans Saints are going to return home pissed off and ready to go Sunday night. They outgained the Jets 407-338 for the game, but lost Darren Sproles on the team's first drive, which made them much more easy to deal with. However, Sproles will return this week and will give this soft Dallas defense fits.
New Orleans is putting up 27.0 points and 397.4 yards per game this season to rank 7th in the league in total offense. I've been even more impressed with the new stop unit under the guidance of defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan. The stop unit is giving up just 18.2 points and 333.1 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total defense. Ryan wants revenge on the Cowboys, who made him the scapegoat and canned him after last season.
When you look at Dallas' numbers, it's easy to see that it is way overrated due to its 5-4 record. Three of those wins have come against teams from the NFC East, which is the worst division in football. The Cowboys rank 17th in the league in total offense at 342.6 yards per game, and a woeful 31st in total defense at 419.2 yards per game allowed. Their defense will get shredding by this high-powered New Orleans offense Sunday night.
The Saints simply do not lose at home. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in home games this season, outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game. New Orleans is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games overall. The Saints are 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons. They are winning by an average of 19.2 points per game in this spot. Bet the Saints Sunday.
|11-10-13||Carolina Panthers +6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||10-9||Win||100||30 h 39 m||Show|
15* Panthers/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +6.5
Quietly, the Carolina Panthers have been one of the best teams in the entire league in 2013. They have gotten to 5-3 on the season thanks to winning five of their last six games via blowout. Their five victories have been against the Giants (38-0), Vikings (35-10), Rams (30-15), Bucs (31-13) and Falcons (34-10). That's complete domination folks.
Carolina continues to get no respect from the books this week as a 6-point underdog at San Francisco. They're saying that the 49ers are three points better on a neutral field, and I'm not buying it. I believe these teams are very evenly-matched and that this game will go right down to the wire with the winner likely winning by a field goal.
In my opinion, the Panthers have the best defense in the league right up there with the Chiefs. They are giving up just 13.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 299.9 yards per game allowed. The reason they have an advantage in this game particularly is because of their ability to stop the run.
San Francisco relies heavily on its running game, ranking 1st in the league in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game. The 49ers have the worst passing offense in the league, ranking 32nd at 189.9 yards per game through the air. So, the key to stopping San Francisco is stopping its running game. Carolina has the perfect antidote, ranking 2nd in the league against the run at 79.1 yards per game and 3.7 per carry.
During the team's four-game winning streak, Cam Newton is completing 72.3 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns, two picks and a 109.8 rating along with three rushing touchdowns. Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Ron Rivera is 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Carolina. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|11-10-13||Jacksonville Jaguars +13 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||29-27||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +13
After going 0-8 straight up and 1-7 against the spread through the first half of their season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be showing a ton of value in the second half. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to keep fading Jacksonville, and that is going to force them to set the numbers a lot higher than they should be. I'm going to take advantage, starting this week.
If the Jaguars were going to win their first game of the season, this would be the perfect situation for it. They are coming off their bye week, getting two full weeks to prepare for division rival Tennessee, so this is a game where they should be in a great state of mind coming in. Meanwhile, the Titans have a game against the division-leading Indianapolis Colts on deck, which makes this a lookahead spot for them.
At 4-4, Tennessee is clearly one of the most overrated teams in the league. It is averaging just 318.0 yards per game to rank 24th in the league in total offense. It is giving up 340.4 yards per game, getting outgained by 22.4 yards per game on the season. This team does not deserve to be laying double-digit points against any team in the league, even the Jaguars.
Plays on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-8 (81.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This trend just goes to show how backing these teams that are perceived as 'awful' can really pay dividends for bettors. I expect it to pay off this weekend. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-10-13||St. Louis Rams +10 v. Indianapolis Colts||Top||38-8||Win||100||27 h 36 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on St. Louis Rams +10
You have to give the Rams a lot of credit for the way they have fought the last couple of weeks. They fell 9-14 to Seattle as a 13-point underdog, but really dominated that game and should have won. They outgained the Seahawks 339-135 for the game. They also played a very good game last week, falling 21-28 to the Tennessee Titans in a very evenly-matched game that saw both teams gain exactly 363 yards.
A new-found running game has taken a lot of pressure off of St. Louis quarterback Kellen Clemens, who has played pretty well all things considered. The Rams rushed for 200 yards against Seattle and 160 more against Tennessee. Zac Stacy has been one of the best running backs in the league over the past couple of weeks. He has 475 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season while averaging an impressive 4.6 yards per carry.
Indianapolis has been soft against the run this season. It ranks 26th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 124.9 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It gave up 171 yards to Oakland, 218 yards to Seattle, 147 to San Diego and 143 to Houston. Considering the Colts are actually getting outgained by 26.3 yards per game on the season, they clearly aren
|11-10-13||Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears||21-19||Win||102||27 h 33 m||Show|
15* Lions/Bears NFC North No-Brainer on Detroit PK
This is a very favorable spot for Detroit and a very tough one for Chicago. Despite the fact that both teams are 5-3 heading into this game with first place in the NFC North on the line, I believe the Lions have a decisive advantage going into it.
Detroit is coming off its bye week, giving it two full weeks to prepare for Chicago. Meanwhile, the Bears will be on short rest after their huge Monday Night Football win over the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. That gives a huge edge in rest and preparation to the Lions, while also setting the Bears up for a letdown spot off a win over their biggest rivals.
The Lions beat the Bears 40-32 at home in their first meeting this season. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Lions led 40-16 with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. Jay Cutler threw three interceptions in the loss, while Reggie Bush rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Chicago has all kinds of injury concerns heading into this one. Its defense is very soft due to the losses of LB Lance Briggs, LB D.J. Williams, DT Henry Melton, DT Nate Collins and DT Jay Ratliff. Cutler is expected to return from a groin injury, but he may be coming back too soon as Josh McCown played well in his place. Bush should have another monster game on the ground against a Chicago defense that has allowed a combined 408 rushing yards in its last two games.
The Bears are 12-33 ATS in their last 45 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play. Chicago is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bears. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Roll with the Lions Sunday.
|11-10-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens +1||17-20||Win||105||27 h 32 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Ravens AFC North Rivalry Play on Baltimore +1
This is essentially a must-win for the Baltimore Ravens. At 3-5 on the season, they trail the Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) by 2.5 games for first place in the AFC North. They simply cannot afford to lose this game if they want any chance of winning the division, and as a result, I expect their best effort of the season at home Sunday.
Due to injuries, the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to be as strong the rest of the way as they were in the first half of the season. That was evident in a 20-22 loss at Miami last week as the defense was shredded for 157 rushing yards by the Dolphins. It's no coincidence that the Dolphins were able to have so much success on the ground considering the injuries the Bengals are dealing with.
Cincinnati has lost its rock in the middle in defensive tackle Geno Atkins (knee) for the season in the loss to Miami. Atkins, who had a team-best six sacks and a career-high 12 1/2 in 2012, joins cornerback Leon Hall (Achilles), safety Taylor Mays (shoulder) and defensive end Robert Geathers (elbow) on injured reserve.
Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee, concussion) and offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee) didn't play last week and both were held out of practice Wednesday. Maualuga is doubtful Sunday, while Whitworth is expected to play. Linebacker Michael Boely is doubtful, while running back Giovani Bernard is expected to return despite sitting out late in the Miami game due to a rib injury.
Baltimore has fell victim to a tough schedule more than anything. It has played five road games compared to only three home games. It is 2-1 at home with its only loss coming to the Green Bay Packers by a final of 17-19. Cincinnati is just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the road this year. The Ravens have been on the wrong end of several close calls, losing their last three by a combined 11 points. Cincinnati has lost in each of its last three visits to Baltimore and was blown out 44-13 in its latest one Sept. 10, 2012.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the past seven meetings. The Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|11-10-13||Buffalo Bills v. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5||10-23||Win||100||27 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
The Steelers have clearly been much better than their record would indicate this season. They are almost dead even in yards gained and yards allowed this year, averaging 341.9 yards per game on offense and giving up 341.2 yards per game on defense. That is more of a sign of a team that would be 4-4 right now rather than one that is 2-6, but the Steelers are -11 in turnover differential, which has been the difference.
The Bills, on the other hand, are about as bad as their 3-6 record would indicate. They are averaging 344.7 yards per game offensively, while giving up 362.1 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by 17.4 yards per game. They are yielding 26.2 points per game to rank 24th in the league in scoring defense. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to New Orleans (17-35) and Kansas City (13-23).
Pittsburgh has absolutely dominated this series with Buffalo. In fact, the Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings in this series. All eight of their wins have come by three points or more, including six by 13 or more. At home as only a 2.5-point favorite, there
|11-09-13||LSU +13 v. Alabama||Top||17-38||Loss||-114||50 h 58 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||LSU v. Alabama UNDER 55||Top||17-38||Push||0||50 h 57 m||Show|
25* College Football PARLAY OF THE YEAR on LSU +13/UNDER 55
Reasons for LSU - While the Tigers haven
|11-09-13||Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||42-24||Win||100||49 h 57 m||Show|
20* VA Tech/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +7
The Virginia Tech Hokies really have a legitimate chance to win the Coastal Division with a victory Saturday. They would have victories against both Miami and Georgia Tech, which are their two closest contenders. That
|11-09-13||Arkansas State v. Louisiana Monroe -3||42-14||Loss||-120||49 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Monroe -3
Arkansas State continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers this week as only a 3-point road underdog to Louisiana-Monroe. Somehow, this team is getting treated like the back-to-back Sun Belt champion it was the past two years, and not the woeful 4-4 team it is in 2013.
Arkansas State's four wins have come against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Troy, Idaho and South Alabama. As you can see, it does not have a good win on its schedule yet. It even struggled to beat Troy (41-34) at home and South Alabama (17-16) on the road. It is just 1-3 on the road this season with blowout losses to Memphis (7-31), Missouri (19-41) and Auburn (9-38). It also fell 7-23 at home to Louisiana-Lafayette while gaining just 168 total yards in the defeat.
Louisiana-Monroe has turned around its season, and now at 3-1 in Sun Belt play, it has a legitimate shot to win the conference this year. But due to the slow start, which was aided by an injury to starting quarterback Kolton Browning, this team is now underrated. The Warhawks have reeled off three straight victories to get back on track, including the last two thanks to the healthy return of their star quarterback.
Browning threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-10 win over Georgia State on October 26. He came back five days later and threw for 354 yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for another score in a 49-37 win at Troy on October 31. That brings me to my next point, which is that the Warhawks have had two extra days to prepare for Arkansas State, which last played on November 2 against South Alabama.
Monroe has had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. They have lost three straight to Arkansas State, including a 45-23 road loss last season. But that Arkansas State team had the best quarterback in Sun Belt history in Ryan Aplin, who had 10,758 career passing yards and ton of rushing yards to go with it. New quarterback Adam Kennedy has thrown just seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season, which is a far cry from what Aplin put up year after year.
Plays against road underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Better yet, plays on home favorites (LA MONROE) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Also, the home team has won seven of the past eight meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.
|11-09-13||Mississippi State +19.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||41-51||Win||100||45 h 27 m||Show|
20* Miss State/Texas A&M CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Mississippi State +19.5
|11-09-13||USC v. California +17||62-28||Loss||-110||45 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +17
You have to give the Cal Golden Bears a lot of credit for the way they continue to fight. They have covered the spread in each of their last two games and are clearly starting to show value against the spread due to their poor start this season. They covered as a 28-point underdog at Washington in a 17-41 loss. They followed that up with their best performance of the season, which was a 28-33 home loss to Arizona as a 14.5-point underdog last weekend.
I really like what I
|11-09-13||Western Kentucky -5.5 v. Army||21-17||Loss||-110||42 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky -5.5
There's no question in my mind that Western Kentucky is the superior team in this game against Army. That will show on the football field as the Hiltoppers roll to a blowout road victory to become bowl eligible with their sixth win of the season.
Western Kentucky has been dominant on both sides of the football. It is scoring 30.8 points and averaging 476.6 yards per game to rank 26th in the country in total offense. It is giving up just 361.9 yards per game to rank 29th in total defense. This team is even better than its 5-4 record would indicate.
Sure, losses to LA Lafayette and Troy are concerning but a closer look shows that they really should have won both of those games. The Hilltoppers outgained Lafayette 471-344 for the game, but were -3 in turnover differential. They also outgained Troy 532-397. So, as you can see, they dominated both of those games in every area but the scoreboard.
Army is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to two of the worst teams in college football in Temple (14-33) and Air Force (28-42). Its only wins this season have come against three terrible teams in Morgan State (28-12), LA Tech (35-16) and Eastern Michigan (50-25). That's the same Morgan State team that Western Kentucky beat (58-17).
The Hilltoppers beat Navy 19-7 on September 28, so they have some nice experience against the triple-option offense. They held the Midshipmen to just 183 total yards in the win. Navy is a much better football team than Army, and its runs the triple-option much more effectively.
Western Kentucky is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Army is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|11-08-13||Air Force v. New Mexico -3||Top||37-45||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
20* Air Force/New Mexico Mountain West No-Brainer on New Mexico -3
While the New Mexico Lobos have just two wins this season, they have been much more competitive than they were in years
|11-07-13||Oregon -10 v. Stanford||Top||20-26||Loss||-110||23 h 33 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon -10
The Ducks have certainly made a case for being the best team in all of college football. They have won every game this season by 21 or more points en route to their 8-0 start. That includes a 45-24 win at Washington, which is the same team should have won at Stanford, losing 28-31 despite outgaining the Cardinal by 210 total yards.
Oregon is putting up 55.6 points and 632.1 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota is the Heisman Trophy front runner to this point thanks to his 2,281 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as well as his 511 rushing yards and nine scores. The defense hasn
|11-07-13||Washington Redskins -1 v. Minnesota Vikings||Top||27-34||Loss||-125||64 h 40 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Redskins -1 (-125)
Despite the fact that they are just 3-5, the Redskins are still very much alive in the NFC East race. After a huge overtime win against San Diego this past Sunday, they trail the Dallas Cowboys by just 1.5 games for the division lead. They finished the second half last year on a seven-game winning streak, and that will give them the confidence to do something special to close out the 2013 campaign, too.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has nothing to play for even though we
|11-07-13||Troy +14 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||36-41||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
15* Troy/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +14
The Troy Trojans have a big edge in rest heading into this one. They last played on Thursday, October 31, while Louisiana-Lafayette last played on Saturday, November 2. That gives them a full two days extra to prepare for this contest, which is huge considering this is a short week for the Rajin
|11-06-13||Central Michigan +21 v. Ball State||Top||24-44||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
20* CMU/Ball State MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Central Michigan +21
The Chippewas are playing their best football of the season of late. Prior to their loss to Northern Illinois on October 19 last time out, they had won two straight road games over Miami Ohio (21-9) and Ohio (26-23). That win over the Bobcats was quite impressive considering they were a 20-point underdog but managed 432 total yards in the win.
Having last played on October 19, Central Michigan now has had more than two full weeks to prepare for Ball State. They have had an extra week to prepare than the Cardinals, who last played on October 26.
With a game against fellow MAC West leader Northern Illinois on deck next Wednesday, this is a huge letdown spot for Ball State. That game will almost certainly decide the MAC West winner, so it doesn
|11-05-13||Ohio v. Buffalo -3.5||Top||3-30||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ohio/Buffalo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo -3.5
The Buffalo Bulls have been one of the most improved teams in the country this season. As a result, they have also been one of the most underrated. After opening the season with losses against Ohio State and Baylor, who each remain undefeated, the Bulls have reeled off six straight victories while going 5-1 against the spread in the process.
In its last five games, Buffalo has been absolutely destroying opponents. In fact, it has won five straight games by 20 or more points. It beat Connecticut (41-12), Eastern Michigan (42-14) and UMass (32-3) at home, while also winning at Western Michigan (33-0) and Kent State (41-21) on the road.
Ohio was absolutely blown 7-49 at Louisville in its only true road test this season. Its other two road games came at Akron and at Eastern Michigan, which were both wins. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 22.2 points per game.
The Bulls clearly want revenge from last season
|11-04-13||Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -10||Top||27-20||Loss||-107||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* Bears/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay -10
Green Bay is once again showing that it is the deepest team in the league just as it did when it won the Super Bowl a few years back. Despite the losses of Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, James Jones and Jermichael Finley, the Packers have won four straight with three of those victories coming by 13 or more points. The other was a solid 19-17 road victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens.
The Packers have simply owned the Bears, winning six straight in this series while going 5-1 against the spread in the process. They have won five straight meetings with the Bears at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 in his career against Chicago and has completed 69.6 percent of his passes while throwing 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last four matchups.
Chicago will be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler and middle linebacker Lance Briggs Monday. These losses really stack the deck against the Bears. The Packers have won 11 straight home games when you include playoffs while allowing an average of 14.7 points per game in the process. In their last five home games, the Packers have yielded only three field goals and no touchdowns in the first half. After giving up 45 points and 499 total yards to the Redskins last time out, the Bears will be in for a long day against this high-powered Green Bay offense.
What has made Green Bay's offense so dynamic this year is a new-found running game, which makes opposing defenses try and defend the entire field. The Packers have rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, including 180-plus in three of them. After giving up 209 rushing yards against the Redskins, the Bears are clearly soft through the middle of their defense due to injuries along the D-line and at linebacker.
The Bears are 0-7 against the spread versus good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game over the last two seasons. Green Bay is 35-16-2 against the spread in its last 53 home games overall. The Packers are 8-1 against the number in their last nine games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The Bears are 2-14 against the spread in their last 14 vs. NFC opponents. Green Bay is 26-9 against the number in its last 35 vs. NFC North foes. Bet Green Bay Monday.
|11-03-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||39 h 58 m||Show|
20* Colts/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +2.5
Sure, the record says that the Houston Texans are just 2-5 on the season, but a closer look into the numbers shows that they are much better than their record would indicate. They rank 1st in the league in total defense at 267.7 yards per game allowed, and 8th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game. Their net yards gained versus their opponents of 113.4 yards per game is the best mark in the entire league. There could be a ton of value in backing this team going forward due to their poor overall record, and I believe that is certainly the case Sunday night.
Compare that to the Colts (5-2), who are actually getting outgained by 6.0 yards per game on the season, and we have a fraud here. Now, Indianapolis has lost leading receiver Reggie Wayne to a season-ending knee injury in the win over the Broncos last time out. His loss cannot be overstated as he has been one of the most productive receivers in league history. Andrew Luck has taken a particular liking to Wayne, especially in key third-down situations. Without him, this offense isn
|11-03-13||Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots||Top||31-55||Loss||-115||35 h 54 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Patriots AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +7
Sure, the Steelers are just 2-5 on the season, but when you look at the numbers it
|11-03-13||Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Oakland Raiders||49-20||Win||100||34 h 19 m||Show|
15* Eagles/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +3
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly the worst home team in the league. They just cannot seem to perform well in front of the boo birds, losing a ridiculous 10 straight home games. They also clearly enjoy getting away from Philadelphia and all the negativity that comes with it.
Indeed, the Eagles are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread on the road this season, which is where all three of their victories have come. They have wins at Washington (33-27), New York Giants (36-21) and Tampa Bay (31-20). Their only loss came at Denver (20-52) in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Eagles were only outgained 450-472 in that game, but they gave up two non-offensive touchdowns. Plus, everyone is getting blown out by Denver.
Oakland is one of the most overrated teams in the league. It was gift-wrapped wins by the Chargers and Steelers in two of its last three games with those teams combining for seven turnovers. The Raiders are going to get exploited this week simply because this is a terrible match up for them.
The Raiders rely heavily on the run, averaging 139 rushing yards per game compared to just 175 passing. Well, Philadelphia's strength defensively is against the run and its weakness is against the pass. The Eagles are only allowing 100 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry compared to 302 passing yards per game. Terrelle Pryor won't be able to exploit Philadelphia's weakness because he's a terrible passer.
I love that Nick Foles is getting the start this week as he has clearly been the most impressive of the three Philadelphia quarterbacks. Foles has appeared in five games, two as a starter, and has completed 52 of 90 passes for 622 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He shined against Tampa Bay on Oct. 13, going 22 of 31 for 296 yards with three touchdowns. He can also hand the ball off to LeSean McCoy, who leads the NFL with 733 yards rushing.
Amazingly, Philadelphia is just one game out of first place in the NFC East. So despite the struggles in recent weeks, it still has a ton to play for. Meanwhile, Oakland has no chance to catch Kansas City and Denver in the AFC West. It also has very small hope at getting a wild card spot in the AFC. So, from a mental perspective, I like Philadelphia's side better heading into this one.
Oakland is 3-14 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992. The Raiders are 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. Oakland is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a S.U. win. Take the Eagles Sunday.
Note: While I recommend buying the Eagles to +3 if you have the option, I'd still play them at a lesser number.
|11-03-13||Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills +4||23-13||Loss||-115||31 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo Bills +4
With the new collective bargaining agreement, NFL teams don't hit in practice during the bye week. Players look at it as a bit of a vacation these days. It's kind of like a normal person's Friday before a vacation. How productive are you going to be on that Friday?
I believe the comparison is very real with NFL players. In fact, teams going into a bye week fail to cover the spread in roughly 59% of games over the past two seasons. This spot is especially tough for Kansas City given that it has its biggest game of the season on deck against Denver. It will be overlooking the Bills and looking ahead to the Bye Week and Denver.
I love what I've seen from Buffalo this season. Even in losing efforts, this team continues to battle. This team is 3-5 on the season, but three of those losses came by a touchdown or less, and the other were closer games than the final score would indicate in losses at Cleveland (24-37) and New Orleans (17-35).
I really like what I've seen from Buffalo at home. It has wins over an improved Carolina team and the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. Its only losses have come to New England (21-23) on a last-second field goal as a 10-point dog, and to Cincinnati (24-27) in overtime as a 5.5-point dog. As you can see, the Bills have been extremely competitive at home.
The Chiefs are clearly overvalued due to their 8-0 start, and that has started to show the past two weeks with unimpressive home wins against Houston (17-16) as a 7-point favorite and Cleveland (17-23) as a 7-point favorite. Alex Smith has just two touchdown passes and two interceptions over the last four weeks, and he just cannot deliver in the red zone as time and time again the Chiefs have to settle for field goals.
Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Kansas City is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following two consecutive home wins. The Chiefs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.
Buffalo is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two years. The Bills are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Bills. Roll with Buffalo Sunday.
|11-03-13||Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers -7||10-34||Win||100||31 h 14 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -7
I believe the oddsmakers have set the line in the Carolina/Atlanta game at 7.5 begging bettors to take the hook on the Falcons. I'm going to see right through it and back the better team in this one as I fully expect the Panthers to roll to victory.
It's no fluke that Atlanta is 2-5 right now. It remains without its two starting wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones, and you just cannot replace that kind of production. The injuries on defense are getting overlooked, too. The Falcons are without DE Kroy Biermann and LB Sean Weatherspoon, who are not only two of their best players, but leaders on the stop unit as well. Adding insult to injury is that LB Stephen Nicholas is doubtful Sunday.
Offensively, Atlanta hasn't been able to run the ball, which just puts Matt Ryan under even more pressure than he already is without White and Jones. Atlanta has rushed for 58, 64, 18 and 27 yards in its last four games, respectively. Steven Jackson returned from injury last week, but it didn't matter as he was held to six years on 11 carries. The offensive line is beat up too, and it lost some key cogs from last year.
Defensively, Atlanta is giving up 26.3 points and 363.7 yards per game. There's no question that the Panthers, who are allowing just 13.7 points and 301.4 yards per game, have a huge edge on this side of the ball. Also, the Panthers average 129 rushing yards per game, and they'll be able to move the football against an Atlanta defense that is surrenering 4.6 yards per carry this season. The Falcons have given up 111-plus yards on the ground in four straight games, including 201 last week to Arizona, which isn't known for its running game like Carolina is.
Carolina is not only winning of late, it is absolutely dominating. It has won four of its last five games with the wins coming against New York (38-0), Minnesota (35-10), St. Louis (30-15) and Tampa Bay (31-13). While none of those teams are elite, the Falcons are literally as bad as all of them right now with the injuries they are going through. This is a broken football team, ladies and gents, and there's no quick fix.
Cam Newton is playing the best football of his career. Newton has a 77.3 completion percentage and a 130.3 passer rating during the three-game winning streak - both best in the NFL over the past three weeks - while throwing for 667 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers get an extra three days of rest heading into this one after last Thursday's win over Tampa Bay, only further improving their chances to cover.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Carolina is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers beat last year's 13-3 Atlanta team 30-20 at home on December 9 behind 195 rushing yards and 280 passing yards. I expect an even bigger blowout this time around. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
Note: While I recommend buying the Panthers to -7 if you have the option, I'd still play them at -7.5 or -8.
|11-02-13||UTEP +47.5 v. Texas A&M||7-57||Loss||-106||26 h 3 m||Show|
15* UTEP/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Saturday Night BAILOUT on UTEP +47.5
The Texas A&M Aggies aren't going to be interested at all this week. The 1-6 UTEP Miners come to town as the Aggies step outside SEC play. Teams from power conferences that face a non-conference game late in the season always tend to overlook that opponent when it's a team the caliber of UTEP.
Texas A&M will be much more interested in its final three games of the season, which will be against Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri with perhaps a BCS bowl on the line. It has no interest in beating UTEP by 50 Saturday, which is why I fully expect it to call off the dogs late.
Sure, there's no question I expect this to be a blowout, but asking the Aggies to win by more than six touchdowns is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider how soft their defense has been all season, which will allow UTEP plenty of opportunities to score points in the second half to keep the final score within the number.
Indeed, Texas A&M is giving up 32.6 points and 473.7 yards per game to rank a woeful 108th in the country in total defense. UTEP has actually been a pretty solid offensive team, averaging 407.4 yards per game to rank a respectable 69th in total offense, which is right in the middle of the pack.
In fact, the Miners rank 26th in the country in rushing, averaging 211.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are terrible against the run, giving up 210.1 yards per game to rank 104th in rushing defense. Even if they're down big, they're still going to stick to the run because it's what they do. And they should continue to move it effectively once Texas A&M packs it in at halftime.
UTEP is 17-6 ATS in it last 23 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60-75%. Simply put, this line is too big for a disinterested Aggies team to cover. Roll with UTEP Saturday.
|11-02-13||Eastern Michigan +31 v. Toledo||16-55||Loss||-110||24 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Dirty Dog Dandy on Eastern Michigan +31
This number is simply way too big Saturday. The betting public wants nothing to do with Eastern Michigan because it is 1-7 straight up and 1-7 against the spread on the season. That's exactly what we want because it has created unbelievable line value for us to cash in on this dirty underdog.
Eastern Michigan has lost two games this season by more than 31 points, which came at Penn State (7-45) and at Northern Illinois (20-59). After playing a team like Northern Illinois last week, which is unbeaten on the season, the Eagles will certainly be battle-tested and ready to stay within 31 points of Toledo, which is on a completely different planet than NIU.
This is a huge letdown spot for Toledo. The Rockets are coming off a last-second, come from behind 28-25 win at Bowling Green last week. That was a big win and gets the Rockets back in the hunt for a MAC Title. However, they'll be much more interested in next week's game against Buffalo, which is 4-0 in MAC play this year. As a result, they'll be overlooking Eastern Michigan enough this week to not cover.
Toledo has not won a game this season by more than 27 points. That 27-point victory came at home against Western Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in the entire country, and even worse than Eastern Michigan in my opinion. Its other four wins have come by 21, 12, 3 and 1 point. I've seen nothing from the Rockets that makes me believe they should be a 31-point favorite against any FBS opponent.
Eastern Michigan played Toledo extremely tough last year. It only lost 47-52 at home as a 15-point underdog. It amassed 624 total yards in defeat. With eight starters back from that offense, and Toledo only having four starters back from that defense, I fully expect this EMU offense to put up plenty of points to keep this game competitive for a second consecutive season.
The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Rockets are 1-5--1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.
|11-02-13||Tulane v. Florida Atlantic -2||Top||17-34||Win||100||23 h 45 m||Show|
25* Conference USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida Atlantic -2
Despite a 2-6 start, the Florida Atlantic Owls still have a legitimate shot to become bowl eligible. They play Tulane, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Florida International the rest of the way. That's a cake walk compared to the daunting schedule the Owls have faced to this point.
FAU has had to play both Auburn and Miami, which are two of the top teams in the country. They have also had road games against East Carolina and Rice, as well as home games against Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The other two games were road wins over South Florida (28-10) and UAB (37-23), which aren't great teams, but considering they were an underdog in both contests they were impressive.
Now, let's take a closer look at how much better Florida Atlantic is than its record would indicate. Indeed, the Owls have outgained four of their last five opponents, but managed just a 1-4 record. They lost in overtime to Middle Tennessee (35-42) despite outgaining it by 57 yards. They lost at Rice (14-18) despite outgaining it by 93 yards. They also lost at home to Marshall (23-24) despite outgaining it by 40 yards.
Sure, head coach Carl Pelini has resigned earlier this week due to using drugs, but a change could be just what the team needs. Offensive coordinator Brian Wright has been named interim coach for the remainder of the season. So many times, that first game under a new coach midseason ignites a fire into the players, and I believe that will be the case for FAU, too.
Now, let's look at Tulane, which has been the most lucky team in all of college football in 2013. It has posted a 6-2 record to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2002 after a 14-7 home win over Tulsa last week. After such a huge accomplishment for the program, it would only be human nature for the Green Wave to suffer a letdown this week.
Let's focus on the luck factor for a second. Amazingly, Tulane has been outgained in six of its eight games this season, which is the sign of a team that should 2-6 rather than 6-2. In fact, it is getting outgained 316.2 to 381.9 on the season. In their three most recent games, the Green Wave beat North Texas (24-21) despite getting outgained by 133 yards, beat East Carolina (36-33, OT) despite getting outgained by 233 yards, and beat Tulsa (14-7) despite getting outgained by 43 yards.
This team has been very fortunate in the turnover department, forcing a combined 13 turnovers over the last four games, in which they have obviously gone 4-0. FAU has been taking much better care of the football of late, committing just two turnovers in its last three games tonight. The Owls won't be giving away the same gifts that Tulane has been receiving in recent weeks, and as a result the better team will prevail Saturday.
Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. The Owls are 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. FAU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in its last game. These four trends combine for a perfect 31-0 system backing Florida Atlantic. Plus, the Owls are 14-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, time and time again being undervalued. That's the case again this week. Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.
|11-02-13||Kent State v. Akron -1.5||7-16||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
15* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -1.5
Akron should be a much bigger home favorite this week against Kent State. While both teams are 2-7 on the season, I have no doubt that Akron is the better team and it will show Saturday.
The Zips have suffered some brutal losses this season. They biggest was a 24-28 setback as a 35-point underdog at Michigan. It also lost 20-27 at Northern Illinois as a 24-point dog, and at home against LA Lafayette 30-35 as a 7-point dog. Those three teams really show what this team is capable of.
It's easy to see that Kent State is a terrible football team this season. That was evident right out of the gate in a 17-10 win over Liberty, which is one of its two wins this year. The other came against Western Michigan. A road loss to South Alabama (21-38) and home losses to Bowling Green (22-41) and Buffalo (21-41) are a true indicator of how bad the Flashes are this season.
This is a revenge game for Akron, which lost 24-35 at Kent State last season as an 18.5-point dog. The Zips lost despite outgaining the Flashes 442-364 for the game. Remember, this was a Kent State team last year that was an overtime loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game away from playing in a BCS game. This year's version of the Golden Flashes is only a fraction of that team.
When you look at the numbers and who Kent State has faced, it's easy to see that they are a terrible football team. They only average 349 yards per game offensively against teams that average giving up 403 yards per game. They give up 471 yards per game defensively against teams that average 425 yards per game on offense. Akron has been better defensively than it gets credit for, allowing 417 yards per game against teams that average 437 yards per game.
The Golden Flashes are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss. Kent State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Take Akron Saturday.
|11-02-13||Northwestern +6 v. Nebraska||24-27||Win||100||20 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Upset Special on Northwestern +6
The Northwestern Wildcats were clearly overvalued coming into the season after last year's campaign in which they won 10 games and went 11-1-1 against the spread. Now, after losing four straight and six straight against the spread, they are back to being undervalued, and I'll gladly take advantage this week.
It's not like this team is much worse than last year's squad, but they just haven't been getting it done in close games. They had their chances to beat Ohio State, but eventually lost 30-40 in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate and could have gone either way. Since that defeat, they have suffered a 3-point loss to Minnesota and an overtime loss to Iowa.
I still have faith that Northwestern will rebound, and it starts this week as it wants huge revenge on Nebraska. Indeed, it will have no problem getting up for this game after blowing a late 12-point lead at home to the Cornhuskers last year to lose in the closing seconds by a final of 28-29. These teams also played a close game in 2011 with the Wildcats prevailing 28-25 on the road as a 17.5-point underdog.
The Cornhuskers have had their own problems this year as well. They just lost at Minnesota 23-34 last week, and they don't have an impressive win on their schedule yet. Their five wins have come against the likes of Wyoming, Southern Miss, South Dakota State, Illinois and Purdue. This is a definite step up in competition for them. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will be battle-tested after playing Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa already.
Northwestern has scored on 30 of its 31 trips inside the 20, with the resulting 96.8 percent success rate ranking second in the country behind Florida State. The Cornhuskers sport the second-worst red-zone defense in the conference (tied for 107th in the country), allowing opponents to score 90 percent of the time they drive inside the 20. Nebraska has allowed 44 runs of more than 10 yards and opponents are rushing for an average of 5.3 yards on first down
|11-02-13||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4.5||Top||0-13||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -4.5
This is the perfect storm with Wake Forest set up for a huge letdown spot, while Syracuse is going to be very hungry for a win this weekend. I'll lay the small number on the Orange because of it.
Wake Forest is coming off a narrow 21-24 loss at Miami last week. They led most of the way but just couldn't hold on in the fourth quarter with the win. Of course, the only reason that game was close is because the Hurricanes did not show up because they were looking ahead to Florida State this week.
Because the game against Miami was close, Wake Forest is getting more respect than it should from oddsmakers heading into Syracuse. And, because the Demon Deacons have Florida State on deck, that makes this a sandwich game for them. Just like the Hurricanes did last week, the Demond Deacons will likely be looking ahead to the Seminoles.
Now for Syracuse, which is coming off its worst loss of the season in a 0-56 setback at Georgia Tech. It has had a bye week since that defeat to correct mistakes and to steam over it. You can bet the Orange will be putting their best foot forward Saturday, which will be good enough to take care of business against Wake Forest, who will suffer a hangover from last week's loss to Miami.
Clearly, Wake Forest is not a very good team. It lost 7-56 at Clemson, and 10-24 at Boston College in two of its four road games this year. Syracuse has some impressive showings, winning 24-10 at NC State, beating Tulane at home 52-17, and losing at Penn State 17-23. I've seen enough from the Orange to know that the Georgia Tech loss was more of an aberration than anything.
Syracuse is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games versus poor rushing teams that average less than 120 yards per game. The Orange are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Orange are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss. Take Syracuse Saturday.
|11-02-13||Ohio State v. Purdue +32.5||56-0||Loss||-110||16 h 24 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +32.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are catching too many points at home Saturday against the Ohio State Buckeyes. While things have not gone as planned for Purdue this far, it has kept fighting. Now, this is its Super Bowl and a chance to compete against a Top 5 team in the country.
Purdue has played a couple of games this season that make me believe it can hang with the Buckeyes. It only lost 24-31 at home to Notre Dame as a 17-point underdog. It also only lost 0-14 at Michigan State as a 28-point dog last time out. It was only outgained by 68 yards by the Spartans behind a dominant defensive performance, limiting them to 294 total yards. This was a 7-0 game with 8:55 left to go in the 4th.
Now, with two weeks off since that game against Michigan State, Purdue is fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, Ohio State is tired after a brutal stretch which includes games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. Three of those games were decided by 10 points or less.
Sure, the Buckeyes blew out Penn State last week, but that's why I believe this line is inflated because the betting public has that blowout fresh in their minds. They are pounding the Buckeyes as a result, and I'll gladly play the role of contrarian here.
That's especially the case when you consider how tough Purdue has played Ohio State the past two seasons. Purdue beat Ohio State at home 26-23 in overtime in 2011 as a 7.5-point underdog. In 2012, the Boilermakers went into Ohio State and lost 22-29 as a 17-point dog in overtime. They actually outgained the Buckeyes 347-342 last year, limiting Braxton Miller to 9 of 20 passing for 113 yards and an interception, and 47 rushing yards on 12 carries.
The Boilermakers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Purdue. Roll with the Boilermakers Saturday.
|11-01-13||USC +4.5 v. Oregon State||31-14||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
15* USC/Oregon State Pac-12 No-Brainer on USC +4.5
The Oregon State Beavers are in a bit of a letdown spot here tonight. They are coming off a hard-fought game against Stanford, losing by a final of 12-20 at home. They will have a hard time getting back up from the map after such a physical game and on a short week.
Stanford sacked Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion eight times in that contest to push its sack total to 27 on the season. That's number is the exact same amount of sacks (27) as USC has on the season behind the play of one of the most dominant defensive lines in college football.
USC has been a completely different team since interim coach Ed Oregeron took over for the fired Lane Kiffin three games ago. It has gone 2-1 with its only loss coming at Notre Dame by a final of 10-14. It has outgained each of its three opponents in the process, beating Arizona 38-31 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and topping Utah 19-3.
Last week, the Trojans held the Utes to just 201 total yards while forcing four turnovers. Oregon State beat Utah too, but it needed overtime to do so and gave up a whopping 539 total yards back on September 14. The Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to the easy schedule that they have faced outside of Stanford and Utah.
The other six opponents OSU has faced have been Eastern Washington, Hawaii, San Diego State, Colorado, Washington State and California. They lost to Eastern Washington, and only beat San Diego State 34-30. Meanwhile, USC has already played the likes of Utah State, Arizona State, Arizona, Notre Dame and Utah and have managed to get through that daunting slate at 5-3.
USC is giving up just 19.2 points and 317.2 yards per game this season to rank 11th in the country in total defense. It only gives up 106.0 yards rushing and 211.9 passing and will have an answer for Mannion tonight with its ability to get after the opposing quarterback. Offensively, the Trojans are expected to get back perhaps the best receiver in the country in Marqise Lee tonight, which will be a huge boost.
Plays on road underdogs (USC) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet USC Friday.
|10-31-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3||20-22||Win||105||14 h 26 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Dolphins NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are getting a lot of respect from the books as a road favorite over the Miami Dolphins Thursday. This is a make-or-break game for Miami, and there's no question it will be putting its best foot forward tonight to try and get back to .500 on the season and back into the playoff hunt.
There's no question that Cincinnati is a quality team, but I believe this is a bad spot for the Bengals. They are coming off a 49-9 win over the Jets in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns to blow the game wide open. I believe they are overvalued because of that final score, and they are in a position to fall flat on their faces against a Dolphins team that wants it more.
Miami has held a lead in each of its last three games, including a lead in the fourth quarter in two of them, but found a way to lose. It fell to Baltimore (23-26) and Buffalo (21-23) at home, as well as New England (17-27) on the road. It even blew a 17-3 lead over the Patriots.
Taking a deeper look into the box scores really shows that the Dolphins gave away the last two games. They held the Bills to just 268 total yards, but were -2 in turnover differential, giving the ball away three times. They held the Patriots to just 252 total yards, but again committed three turnovers and finished -2 in turnover differential.
Miami has gotten its running game going of late, amassing 276 yards on the ground the past two weeks, including 156 against New England. With middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) out for Cincinnati, the Dolphins should continue their success on the ground in this one as the middle of the Bengals' defense will be much softer without their starter.
Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS since 1983.
The Bengals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. Knowing that we're going to get the best effort that Miami has, and knowing that Cincinnati is in a letdown spot here, I'll gladly side with the home dog in this one. Roll with the Dolphins Thursday.
|10-31-13||Rice +4 v. North Texas||16-28||Loss||-114||14 h 31 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Rice +4
The North Texas Mean Green have been an excellent surprise story this season. However, they are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and I'll gladly fade them in this contest against a much stronger team in the Rice Owls.
When you look at North Texas' five wins this season, they have come against Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, LA Tech, Ball State and Idaho. The only impressive win in that bunch is Ball State, but the Cardinals turned theball over five times and essentially gave that game away in a 27-34 loss.
Rice is 6-2 this season with its only losses coming to Texas A&M and Houston. The Aggies are one of the best teams in the SEC, and they put up 31 points on them. They only lost 26-31 to the Cougars, who currently sit atop the American Athletic Conference with a 6-1 record.
I was huge on Rice coming into the season, believing that it was the best team in all of Conference USA with 19 starters back. At 6-2 on the season to this point, I see nothing to change my mind. The Owls will go out and prove that they are the best team in C-USA Thursday.
Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road underdog over the last two seasons. Rice is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games. The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven October games. The Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Owls. Take Rice Thursday.
|10-30-13||Cincinnati v. Memphis +3||34-21||Loss||-115||14 h 58 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/Memphis American Athletic ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +3
There's a reason why this line continues to drop despite the betting public being all over Cincinnati. The sharp money is on Memphis for good reason, and I'll gladly list several of those reasons below.
The public sees a small favorite like Cincinnati with a 5-2 record against a 1-5 team like Memphis and automatically jumps all over the team with a better record. There is a lot more than what meets the eye when you dig into it and look past the records.
Cincinnati has played one of the softest schedules in all of college football to this point. The seven teams that the Bearcats have played have been Purdue (1-6), Illinois (3-4), FCS Northwestern State (3-5), Miami Ohio (0-8), South Florida (2-5), Temple (1-7) and Connecticut (0-7). As you can see, it hasn't faced a team with a winning record yet. If you take out FCS opponent Northwestern State, the six FBS opponents that the Bearcats have played have a combined 7-37 record.
Miraculously, Cincinnati actually found a way to lose to two of those teams. Both were on the road in losses to Illinois (17-45) and South Florida (20-26). In fact, the Bearcats are 0-3 against the spread in road games this season. They fell to Illinois as a 7-point favorite, to South Florida as a 10.5-point favorite, and needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat winless Miami (Ohio) 14-0 as a 24.5-point favorite.
While Memphis is 1-5 right now, it has played a daunting schedule and could easily be at least 3-4 right now. The Tigers held second-half leads against co-conference leaders Houston and Central Florida before falling in each contest. Memphis lost its third straight game last time out in a 29-34 setback at home to a vastly underrated SMU team.
Memphis held UCF to just 270 total yards while outgaining it by by 123 yards in a 17-24 loss. The Tigers held Houston to 241 total yards and outgained the Cougars by 102 total yards, but found a way to lose by a final of 15-25. In fact, the Tigers have outgained four of their first six opponents, which is clearly the sign of a much better team than their 1-5 record would indicate.
The Tigers feature the 13th-best defense in the entire country, giving up just 331.0 total yards per game. That's impressive when you consider the six opponents it has faced combined to average 441 yards on the season, so they are holding them to 110 yards less than their season averages.
Looking at Cincinnati's numbers compared to the quality of the opposition shows that this team is a fraud. The Bearcats are gaining 467 yards per game on offense against seven defenses that combine to give up an average of 456 yards per game. The Bearcats are only giving up 287 total yards per game, but the seven offenses they have faced combine to average just 298 yards per game.
Plays against road favorites (CINCINNATI) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a poor offensive team (16-21 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.
Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a win by 21 or more points. Memphis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off three straight losses to conference rivals. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Memphis Wednesday.
|10-28-13||Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams UNDER 43||Top||14-9||Win||100||99 h 51 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Rams ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43
I look for this divisional showdown to be very low-scoring Monday night when the Seattle Seahawks visit NFC West rival St. Louis. It was tempting to take Seattle against the spread because of its dominant defense against St. Louis' poor offense, but instead I believe the value is with the UNDER in this contest.
The Seahawks held the Cardinals to just 234 yards last week in a 12-point win in Arizona to continue their stellar defensive play. Seattle ranks 2nd in the league in total defense at 280.7 yards per game, and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game. I don't expect the Rams to be able to do much against this defense with the shape they are in offensively right now.
St. Louis is in a world of hurt right now with the loss of starting quarterback Sam Bradford. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. You would be hard-pressed to find a team with a worse backup quarterback situation than the Rams. That's why they have signed Brady Quinn and Austin Davis this week. They were so desperate that they even put a call into Brett Favre.
Instead, the Rams will be giving the ball to Kellen Clemens, who should be out of the league as he has never done anything to warrant being a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Rams rank 30th in total offense at 298.8 yards per game, and it
|10-27-13||Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 47.5||Top||44-31||Loss||-110||76 h 36 m||Show|
20* Packers/Vikings NBC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5
The oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Sunday night game between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are limited offensively right now, and I look for the defenses to dominate this contest because of it. Plus, it's a division game, which means both teams are very familiar with each other. These division games are almost always more low-scoring than any other games.
Green Bay has played UNDER the total in each of its last three games overall. It won 22-9 over Detroit, 19-17 at Baltimore, and 31-13 over Cleveland in its last three contests for an average combined score of 37.0 points per game. The Packers are playing without three of their top four receivers in Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. Aaron Rodgers and company simply cannot be as explosive without these three, and as a result they have relied more on the running game in recent weeks.
What has really helped the Packers is a defense that has allowed less than 300 yards in three of the past four games. This stop unit is allowing only 13.0 points per game in the last three games overall, and should have great success against a lackluster Minnesota offense. The Vikings managed just 290 total yards in a 10-35 loss to Carolina before gaining a woeful 206 yards in a 7-23 loss to the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. As you can see, they are scoring just 8.5 points per game in their last two contests.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Packers last eight games vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 4-0 in Packers last four October games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Vikings last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Given the state of both of these offenses, I look for a very low-scoring game tonight in Minnesota. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|10-27-13||Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 v. Oakland Raiders||Top||18-21||Loss||-110||86 h 29 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the most underrated team in the league right now due to their 2-4 record. I believe that they were underrated the past two weeks, and I have backed them with success in wins over the Jets and Ravens. I'll continue riding this gravy train knowing that the betting public isn't a believer in the Steelers yet due to the record. I think they are a top-10 team right now in their current form now that they are finally getting healthy.
The biggest reason for the turnaround is an offense that recently got back starting running back Le'Veon Bell and starting tight end Heath Miller. Bell has rushed for 184 yards and two touchdowns in just three games, finally giving the Steelers a running game that they lacked in the first three weeks of the season. Miller has caught 17 balls for 206 yards and a score in just four games since returning from injury. He is Big Ben's favorite outlet when he's in trouble. Also, Antonio Brown may be the most underrated receiver in the league, catching a team-high 47 balls for 548 yards and two touchdowns thus far.
While I love what I've seen from the offense in recent weeks, it's the defense that really carries the load in Pittsburgh. Somehow, this stop unit continues to get overlooked even though it's one of the best in the league, which has been the case over the past decade. Pittsburgh ranks 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 306.8 yards per game. It yielded only 267 yards in a 19-6 win at New York on October 13, and 287 yards in a 19-16 home victory over the Ravens last week.
Oakland is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. Unlike Pittsburgh, this team is every bit as bad as its 2-4 record would indicate. It should have only one win on the season, which was a lackluster 19-9 home victory over the winless Jaguars. It should not have beaten San Diego at home as the Chargers did everything in their power to give that game away. In fact, San Diego outgained Oakland 423-299 in that contest, but finished -5 in turnover differential which proved to be the difference.
The Raiders are putting up just 17.5 points and 320.8 yards per game this season to rank 24th in the league in total offense. They have all sorts of injury concerns along the offensive line, and Darren McFadden cannot seem to stay healthy. Terrell Pryor has certainly done as good of a job as you could expect from him given the situation, but he doesn't have what it takes to single-handedly beat this stout Pittsburgh defense that comes in playing its best football of the season.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) - a poor offensive team (14.5-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Oakland is 30-66 against the spread in its last 96 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 7-21 against the number in their last 28 home games off a road loss to a division rival. Sure, Oakland it coming off its bye week, but that hasn't helped it in year's past. In fact, the Raiders are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye week. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-27-13||San Francisco 49ers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +17||42-10||Loss||-115||68 h 6 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Jaguars NFL Overseas No-Brainer on Jacksonville +17
The San Francisco 49ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in this one. They come in having won four straight games by double-digits, which has them overvalued in a big way. Those four games were all closer than the final score would indicate aside from the St. Louis game, which they outgained the Rams by 182 yards. In fact, the 49ers have actually been outgained in each of their last three games against Houston, Arizona and Tennessee, but managed to win by double-digits anyway. That trend won't continue here.
Jacksonville has been a much more competitive team over the last three weeks than the scores would reflect. It actually outgained St. Louis by 12 yards in a 20-34 loss. The Jaguars were only outgained by 45 yards in a 19-35 at all-mighty Denver. That was a 19-21 game in the third quarter before the Broncos tacked on two late touchdowns. Even last week against Sand Diego, the game was much closer than the 6-24 final would indicate. The Jaguars managed 353 total yards including 318 passing from Chad Henne, but couldn't execute in the red zone.
A trip overseas could be just what Jacksonville needs just to get away from it all. Plus, head coach Gus Bradley lost his father this week, so that's another thing for the Jaguars to rally around. Bradley was critical of last week's effort. "We acted like a young team," he said. "I just think that we didn't respond the right way to the challenge. The three most dangerous words in the NFL are 'I've got it,' and I think that we felt like 'We're making strides. We've got this. We've just got to go out there and do this,' and that's not how it works.
Bradley said quarterback Chad Henne would start for a third straight game. Henne has topped 300 yards in his two games since taking over for the injured Blaine Gabbert, and he's coming off a season-high 318 yards Sunday. He gives the Jaguars the best chance to succeed, and he has two great, underrated weapons on the outside to work with. Cecil Shorts has caught 39 balls for 491 yards and a touchdown in just six games, while Justin Blackmon has 25 receptions for 384 yards and a score in just three games since returning from his four-game suspension. This offense has moved the ball much better since Blackmon's return.
When you look at the numbers for the 49ers, it's easy to see that they are not nearly as good as their 5-2 record would indicate. They rank just 17th in the league in total offense at 335.0 yards per game. While the defense is solid and giving up 326.1 yards per game, the offense has been lackluster to say the least. The 49ers are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 8.9 yards per game on the season. That's a number more indicative of a .500 team rather than one that is 5-2.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a terrible team (<=25%) are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.
|10-27-13||Cleveland Browns v. Kansas City Chiefs -7||17-23||Loss||-115||68 h 5 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -7
What a difference a year makes. The Kansas City Chiefs have been the best team in football en route to their 7-0 start. They have gone 5-2 against the spread in the process with five of their victories coming by nine or more points. The others were wins against two very good teams in the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans, who are much better than their record would indicate. The result is the best record in the league, and this team is not ready to suffer its first loss of the season this week.
Cleveland comes into town riding a two-game losing streak after blowout losses to Detroit (17-31) and Green Bay (13-31). This team just hasn
|10-26-13||Florida Atlantic +24.5 v. Auburn||10-45||Loss||-110||65 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida Atlantic +24.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls are one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. They have gone a ridiculous 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games overall. The betting public hasn
|10-26-13||South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5||27-24||Loss||-110||65 h 36 m||Show|
15* South Carolina/Missouri ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Missouri -2.5
The Missouri Tigers have been underrated all season. They have opened 7-0 and are really the only team left in the SEC aside from Alabama that has a legitimate shot to play for the BCS Championship. They have also gone 6-1 against the spread in the process with their only loss coming in a 22-point win over Arkansas State as a 23-point favorite. In fact, the Tigers have won all seven of their games this season by 15 points or more, so it
|10-26-13||Baylor -34.5 v. Kansas||59-14||Win||100||65 h 36 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Baylor -34.5
When you can put up points at will, you can cover five-touchdown spreads like this one with ease. That was the case last week as Baylor topped Iowa State 71-7 as a 33-point favorite in an absolute laugher. I would argue that Iowa State is a better team than Kansas, too.
Baylor is putting up a ridiculous 64.7 points and 713.8 yards per game to rank 1st in the country in scoring and total offense. The defense is improved, too, giving up 16.2 points and 317.3 yards per game to rank 10th in total defense.
Bryce Petty is completing 71.0 percent of his passes for 2,033 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 51 yards and five scores. Lache Seastrunk is a Heisman Trophy contender, rushing for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 per carry. Antwan Goodley (37 receptions, 861 yards, 8 TD) and Tevin Reese (29, 714, 6 TD) form one of the most explosive receiving duos in the country.
Kansas has been atrocious this season with a 2-4 start that includes wins over lowly South Dakota and Louisiana Tech. The Jayhawks lost at home to Texas Tech by a final of 16-54, which is a team that runs a similar offense to Baylor with the spread attack. The Red Raiders racked up 518 yards while limiting the Jayhawks to 273 in the win.
Kansas is scoring 18.3 points and averaging 288.0 yards per game to rank 119th in total offense. It will have a hard time keeping up with the Bears with that kind of offensive production. That's especially the case when you consider that the Jayhawks do not have a passing game. Kansas ranks 113th in the country in passing offense at 157.8 yards per game. When it gets behind, it won't be able to throw to catch up, so it will keep falling further behind.
Plays on any team (BAYLOR)
|10-26-13||Buffalo -1.5 v. Kent State||41-21||Win||100||61 h 7 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -1.5
I was high on Buffalo coming into the season and it hasn't let me down. After road losses to two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Baylor, Buffalo has reeled off five straight victories with the last four coming by 28 or more points. They are a clear contender to win the MAC this season, and will take another step in the right direction with a win at Kent State Saturday.
Kent State came into this season way overrated due to making it to the MAC Title last season. However, the Golden Flashes lost a ton of talent from that team as well as head coach Darrell Hazell. They have opened 2-6 with five of those losses coming by double-digits. That includes a 21-38 loss at South Alabama last week. Now, the Flashes could be without starting quarterback Colin Reardon, who is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,199 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Reardon is questionable with an ankle injury after missing last week's game against South Alabama.
Buffalo features 16 returning starters and some of the best players in the entire country that few have heard about. Two-time first-team All-MAC linebacker Khalil Mack anchors a defense that is giving up 23.1 points per game this season. 2011 first-team All-MAC running back Branden Oliver leads and offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game. Oliver has rushed for 689 yards and five touchdowns this season. Then there's arguably the best receiver in the MAC in Alex Neutz, who was a first-team All-MAC receiver last year and has 35 receptions for 543 yards and six touchdowns in 2013.
Kent State has been atrocious on both sides of the football. It is scoring just 19.1 points and averaging 347.5 yards per game to rank 103rd in the country in total offense. It is giving up 30.9 points and 468.0 yards per game to rank 109th in total defense as well. Its only wins this season have come against Liberty (17-10) and Western Michigan (32-14).
Plays against a home team (KENT ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulls are 4-0 against the spread in their last four vs. a team with a losing record. Buffalo is 14-6-1 against the number in its last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Home-field advantage means little in this series considering the road team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings between the Bulls and Golden Flashes. Bet Buffalo Saturday.
|10-26-13||Connecticut +22.5 v. Central Florida||Top||17-62||Loss||-106||58 h 37 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Connecticut +22.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with 0-6 Connecticut. As a result, oddsmakers are going to be forced to inflate its numbers in the coming weeks, which is certainly the case here against Central Florida. Four of its six losses this season have come by 15 points or less, including setbacks against Michigan (21-24) and South Florida (10-13).
The Huskies made a coaching change in that game against USF and should have won. They outgained the Bulls by 128 yards in that contest but simply gave the game away. While they lost 16-41 at Cincinnati last week, the offense looked much sharper. Tim Boyle threw for 310 yards against a very good Bearcat defense, but he was picked off three times, which proved to be costly. The defense has actually played well for most of the season, giving up 377.7 yards per game to rank a respectable 48th in total defense.
This is a huge letdown spot for Central Florida. It is coming off a big win over AAC favorite Louisville last week in which it erased a 21-point deficit in the second half to win 38-35. It
|10-26-13||Oklahoma State -12.5 v. Iowa State||Top||58-27||Win||100||58 h 37 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -12.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are still very much alive for the Big 12 Title in this wide open conference. They did lose to West Virginia in their conference opener, but they bounced back nicely with two straight wins over Kansas State and TCU. Now they get to go up against an Iowa State team that is just 1-5 on the season and clearly down this year. The Cyclones are lacking confidence after a 7-71 loss at Baylor last weekend, and things won
|10-26-13||Louisville -20 v. South Florida||Top||34-3||Win||100||58 h 37 m||Show|
20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -20
The Louisville Cardinals aren
|10-25-13||Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61.5||Top||20-37||Win||100||48 h 48 m||Show|
25* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 61.5
The books have set the bar way too high in this game between Boise State and BYU Friday night. I look for a defensive battle similar to the 7-6 game these two teams played last year. Boise State gained 261 yards in the win, while BYU was held to 200 yards in the loss. These defenses are much better than they are getting credit for. Meanwhile, I believe this line is inflated due to BYU's 47-46 win at Houston last weekend.
Boise State is giving up 22.9 points and 392.1 yards per game to rank 59th in the country in total defense. Even with allowing 46 points to Houston last week, BYU is only giving up 21.4 points and 366.0 yards per game on the season to rank 36th in the country in total defense. It has held some great offenses down this year like Texas (21 points), Utah (20), Utah State (14) and Georgia Tech (20).
Both teams prefer the run in this one, which is huge considering both defenses are stout against the run. BYU ranks 14th in the country in rushing offense at 263.0 yards per game, while Boise State is 21st in rushing offense at 224.0 yards per game.
The seven opponents that BYU has faced average 201 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. Well, BYU has held those seven opponents to an average of 135.4 yards per game and 3.5 per carry to rank 32nd against the run.
The seven opponents that Boise State has faced average 181 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Well, the Broncos have allowed those seven opponents to gain just 152.1 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry to rank 53rd in the country against the run.
Boise State just lost its starting quarterback in Joe Southwick to a broken ankle. That's a huge loss considering Southwick was completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,589 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
Junior Grant Hedrick made his first start of the season against Nevada last week. It's clear that the Broncos are going to be conservative with Hedrick under center considering he threw for just 150 yards with an interception on only 21 attempts in a 34-17 win over Nevada. They ran the ball 46 times in that contest.
Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-11 (76.6%) over the last 10 seasons.
Boise State is 32-13 UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game since 1992. The Broncos are 24-7 UNDER versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 yards per carry or more since 1992. BYU is 16-4 UNDER in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. BYU is 27-13 UNDER versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game since 1992. The Cougars are 16-5 UNDER after allowing 42 points or more last game since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|10-24-13||Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7||31-13||Loss||-125||23 h 34 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Bucs NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +7
Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is not going to want to back an 0-6 team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They also realize that the public is going to want to back a team like Carolina that is coming off back-to-back blowout victories. Because of these realizations, they have now been forced to set this line higher than it should be with the Panthers currently favored by upwards of a touchdown.
Carolina has not played that well on the road this season, going 1-2 while losing to Buffalo (23-24) and Arizona (6-22). Tampa Bay has been extremely competitive at home, losing on last-second field goals to both New Orleans (14-16) and Arizona (10-13), while also hanging around with Philadelphia (20-31). It fought tough against a desperate Atlanta team last week that was coming off its bye, falling by a final of 23-31.
Mike Glennon has been better than Josh Freeman this season. Glennon threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia while leading the Bucs to 20 points. He also threw for 256 yards and two scores against Atlanta last week. He and Vincent Jackson have hooked up four times for touchdowns in the past two weeks, so he is certainly starting to develop some chemistry there.
|10-24-13||Marshall -8 v. Middle Tenn State||Top||49-51||Loss||-110||22 h 43 m||Show|
20* Marshall/MTSU Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall -8
The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the best non-BCS teams in the country in 2013. Their only losses came on the road against Virginia Tech in overtime, as well as a 31-34 loss at Ohio despite outgaining the Bobcats by 147 total yards in that contest. Middle Tennessee is very fortunate to be 3-4 on the season considering it has been outgained in each of its last six games.
|10-22-13||Louisiana-Lafayette -2.5 v. Arkansas State||Top||23-7||Win||100||26 h 3 m||Show|
20* LA-Lafayette/Arkansas State No-Doubt Rout on LA-Lafayette -2.5
After losing two tough road games at Arkansas and Kansas State to open the season, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been rolling since. They have won four in a row, including back-to-back blowout victories over Texas State (48-24) and Western Kentucky (37-20) to take over first place in the Sun Belt. They will certainly be out for revenge against the two-time defending conference champion Red Wolves.
Last year, the Rajin' Cajuns simply gave the game away to Arkansas State, losing by a final of 27-50. They committed a whopping five turnovers, finishing -5 in turnover differential in that contest. Terrance Broadway threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns in that game, but he also threw three costly interceptions. Look for Broadway and company to take much better care of the football in this one, and to get back to their running game.
The Rajin' Cajuns rushed for 254 yards against a very good Western Kentucky defense last week. They rank 21st in the country in rushing offense at 223.3 yards per game. Arkansas State ranks 93rd in rushing defense, allowing 196.7 yards per game and a whopping 5.1 per carry. The Red Wolves allowed 301 yards in a 9-38 loss to Auburn, 329 yards in a 7-31 loss to Memphis, and 239 yards in a 19-41 setback at Missouri. Their three wins have been unimpressive with victories over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Troy and Idaho. They even gave up 614 yards in their 41-34 win over Troy and only won due to being +4 in turnover differential.
Lafayette is 7-0 against the spread vs. good passing teams that average at least 250 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Rajin' Cajuns are 12-2 against the number in their last 14 road games versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game. Arkansas State is 6-20 against the number in its last 26 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a S.U. win. The Rajin' Cajuns are 21-8 against the number in their last 29 road games.
|10-21-13||Minnesota Vikings +3.5 v. NY Giants||Top||7-23||Loss||-105||9 h 22 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5
In all honesty, the Minnesota Vikings are very close to being a 3-2 team right now. They were beaten on one of the final plays of the game with a touchdown pass from Jay Cutler in a 30-31 loss at Chicago. They also lost in the final two minutes in a 27-31 home loss to the Cleveland Browns. There
|10-20-13||Denver Broncos -6 v. Indianapolis Colts||Top||33-39||Loss||-110||105 h 16 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Colts NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -6
I wanted to release this early before the line gets to the Broncos -7 as I believe it inevitably will. I'll be back with analysis within the next couple of days.
|10-20-13||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -1||Top||16-19||Win||100||101 h 12 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers got back on track off their bye week with an impressive 19-6 road victory over the New York Jets last week. They forced their first two turnovers of the season in the win while limiting New York to just 267 total yards. A big reason for their 0-4 start was the fact that they had not forced a single turnover through the first four contests, which is unheard of for a Pittsburgh defense. After finally winning the turnover battle, look for the Steelers to make it a priority going forward.
Baltimore is just 1-2 on the road this season with losses to Denver (27-49) and Buffalo (20-23). The Ravens were in line for a Super Bowl hangover, and for the most part, that appears to be the case during their 3-3 start. Pittsburgh realizes that it still has a chance to make the playoffs with a big finish in the suspect AFC North, and it starts this week with a home victory over the rival Ravens. A closer look at the numbers actually shows that Pittsburgh has been the better team to this point despite the records.
The Ravens rank 21st in the league in total offense (335.7 yards/game) and 17th in total defense (352.5 yards/game) while getting outgained by 16.8 yards per game. The Steelers rank 17th in total offense (338.8 yards/game) and 6th in total defense (310.8 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 28.0 yards per game. That
|10-20-13||Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs||16-17||Win||100||46 h 46 m||Show|
15* Texans/Chiefs AFC Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Houston +7
Houston has thrown an interception that has been returned for a touchdown in five straight games. It
|10-20-13||Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers||13-31||Loss||-110||46 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Browns +10
The Green Bay Packers are way overvalued as a double-digit home favorite against the underrated Cleveland Browns Sunday. There are several factors that have me backing the Browns in this one, but the biggest is the injuries the Packers are dealing with right now. They will be without two of their top three receivers and Randall Cobb and James Jones on offense. They are also without their best player on defense in Clay Matthews.
Green Bay struggled offensively last week once Jones and Cobb went down with injury. It nearly blew a 16-3 lead to the Ravens, eventually winning by a final of 19-17. It got help from the ground game, which has been coming on in recent weeks, but the passing game is certainly hurting going forward. With the way the Browns have been able to stop the run, and having shutdown corner Joe Haden to defend Jordy Nelson this week, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they went into Lambeau Field and pulled off the upset.
Cleveland ranks 7th in the league in total defense at 312.5 yards per game allowed, including 8th against the run at 98.2 yards per game and 3.5 per carry. The Browns are clearly the better team on this side of the football. They will be up against a Green Bay team that ranks 18th in the league in total defense at 371.8 yards per game allowed, including 28th against the pass at 293.6 yards per game. The Packers are allowing a ridiculous 65.2 percent completions and 8.1 passing yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
The Browns had won three straight games over the Vikings, Bengals and Bills before blowing a 17-14 lead in the fourth quarter to lose to the Detroit Lions last week. Brandon Weeden threw a couple of costly interceptions, but he also threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Green Bay really struggled against Detroit the week prior, winning by a final of 22-9 in a game where Calvin Johnson sat out for the Lions.
The Packers' offense is clearly in trouble right now after averaging just 20.5 points the past two weeks, and now without Jones and Cobb. Meanwhile, the Browns have really flourished offensively the past four weeks with the return of Josh Gordon from a two-game suspension to open the season. They have averaged 25.5 points per game their past four contests and clearly have the firepower to keep u with a depleted Green Bay offense. Gordon has 25 receptions for 429 yards and two touchdowns through four games, while talented tight end Jordan Cameron has 38 receptions for 460 yards and five scores on the season.
The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Cleveland is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a S.U. loss. The Browns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. This is simply too good of value to pass up catching double-digit points in what is a very evenly-matched game given the injuries to the Packers, and the way Cleveland has played of late. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|10-20-13||San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5||24-6||Loss||-110||42 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-6 on the season. As a result, the public doesn't want anything to do with them. That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Jaguars more than a touchdown home underdog Sunday against the inconsistent San Diego Chargers. I like what I've seen from Jacksonville in recent weeks, and I believe it is primed to make a run at its first win of the season this weekend.
Just two weeks ago, the Jaguars showed some great signs in a 20-34 loss at St. Louis in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Jaguars outgained the Rams 363-251 for the game. Justin Blackmon made his return from suspension, and caught five balls for 136 yards and a score. Chad Henne replaced the injured Blaine Gabbert in the second half and went on to complete 7 of 13 passes for 89 yards and a score after Gabbert had already thrown two interceptions.
Last week, Henne was named the starter as a 27.5-point underdog to the Denver Broncos. This offense is clearly better with Henne under center and with Blackmon back in the lineup. Jacksonville kept it close against Denver, trailing just 21-19 midway through the third quarter before eventually losing 19-35. The Jaguars were only outgained 362-407 by the Broncos. Henne threw for 303 yards, while Blackmon finished with 14 receptions for 190 yards. He helped open things up for Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 71 yards and a score in the loss.
San Diego simply cannot seem to string wins together. It has followed each loss with a win, and each win with a loss this season. Off a huge win on Monday Night Football over the Colts by a final of 19-9, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Chargers again. Also, after playing on Monday, they are working on a short week, which is certainly a disadvantage. Their win over the Colts is fresh on the public's minds, so they come into this contest overvalued because of it.
Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 35 points or more last game are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. San Diego is 1-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games since 1992. The Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. San Diego is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a S.U. win. Bet the Jaguars Sunday.
|10-20-13||Buffalo Bills +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins||23-21||Win||100||42 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Buffalo Bills +7.5
The Miami Dolphins are getting way too much respect from the books. They opened 3-0 this season, which had them way overvalued going into back-to-back losses to New Orleans (17-38) and Baltimore (23-26). They continue to get too much respect this week as more than a touchdown favorite over the Buffalo Bills. They are coming off a bye, but I still don't believe this team should be laying a touchdown to any team in the league.
Taking a look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Dolphins are nowhere near as good as their 3-2 record would indicate. Miami ranks 26th in the league in total offense at 316.6 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 393.0 yards per game. As you can see, it is getting outgained by 76.4 yards per game on the season, which is a number that would more often than not represent a team that is 1-4 or 2-3 at this point rather than one that is 3-2.
Buffalo has been highly competitive in 2013 as five of its six games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Unfortunately, it has lost three of those contests, including last week's 24-27 setback against the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime. I was on the Bills last week as a touchdown home underdog to the Bengals, and I'm riding them again this week because they are simply undervalued due to the quarterback position. E.J. Manuel isn't worth as many points as he's getting credit for, and Thad Lewis is an ample replacement.
Lewis completed 19 of 32 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against against a very good Cincinnati defense last week. He did that despite not having his best receiver in Stevie Johnson, who was out with a back injury. Johnson is expected to return this week, which will be a huge boost for the offense. This is an offense that is better than it gets credit for with a trio of excellent running backs in C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Tashard Choice, who have helped Buffalo to the league's 3rd-best rushing attack at 148.8 yards per game. The Bills have scored at least 20 points in all six games this season, so Doug Marrone's new up-tempo scheme is certainly working.
The Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The Dolphins are 11-31-1 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Miami only has one win by more than 4 points this season, while Buffalo only has one loss by more than 7 points. This is simply too good of value to pass up in Week 7. Take Buffalo Sunday.
|10-19-13||Washington State +39.5 v. Oregon||Top||38-62||Win||100||57 h 48 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +39.5
The Cougars are certainly improved in the second year under head coach Mike Leach. They have opened 4-3 despite playing a very tough schedule with their only losses coming to Auburn, Stanford and Oregon State. They have an impressive 10-7 road win at USC on their resume, as well as a 44-22 victory at California. They have certainly played their best football on the road as they also lost to Auburn 24-31 as a 14-point underdog despite outgaining the Tigers 464-396 for the game.
Leach has implemented his Air Raid offense from Texas Tech to Washington State with perfection. The Cougars are putting up 29.9 points and 413.3 yards per game to rank 66th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Connor Halliday is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,241 yards with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the season. Gabe Marks is a freak at receiver, catching 46 balls for 512 yards and four scores.
The defense has been improved this season as well, limiting opponents to an average of 25.2 points per game. The strength is a run defense that ranks 40th in allowing 144 yards per game and 3.8 per carry, which will be huge against Oregon. The Ducks will likely be without top running back De'Anthony Thomas once again Saturday as he is listed as doubtful.
Few teams have played Oregon as tough as Washington State over the past three years. In fact, The Ducks have only been able to beat the Cougars by 25, 15 and 20 points in the last three meetings, respectively. The last two meetings were scarily close in the box scores. In 2011, Washington State outgained Oregon 462-454 in a 28-43 road loss. In 2012, the Cougars were only outgained 402-469 in a 26-51 home loss that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
Washington State is coming off a bad loss to Oregon State, but it simply gave that game away by committing six turnovers and giving up 35 unanswered points in the final 17 minutes. That 22-point loss actually plays in our favor here considering Mike Leach is a perfect 8-0 against the spread in road games off a loss of 21 or more points to a conference opponent in all games he has coached.
This could be a big letdown and look ahead spot for Oregon. It is coming off its best win of the season with a 45-24 triumph at Washington. Now, it has No. 9 UCLA on deck and Stanford after that. The Ducks could easily be overlooking the Cougars, which is something they have done each of the last three years.
|10-19-13||Duke v. Virginia -2||Top||35-22||Loss||-110||50 h 20 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -2
The Virginia Cavaliers have played an absolutely brutal schedule in 2013, which is the biggest reason for their 2-4 start. Their four losses have come against the likes of Oregon, Pittsburgh, Ball State and Maryland. They even have a home win over a very good BYU team on their resume as well. They played well last week at Maryland, falling 26-27 as a 6-point underdog despite gaining 505 yards of total offense. This is clearly a team that is much better than its record would indicate.
Duke is a bit of a fraud at 4-2 on the season. Its four victories have come against NC Central, Memphis, Troy and Navy. Virginia is an excellent running team that is averaging 188.8 yards per game to rank 47th in the country in rushing offense. Duke has given up an average of 224.5 yards per game on the ground in the last four weeks. The Blue Devils rank 81st in the country against the run, giving up 179.7 yards per game on the season.
Virginia boasts a very solid defense that is giving up just 361.8 yards per game to rank 37th in the country in total defense. That
|10-19-13||UCLA +6 v. Stanford||10-24||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on UCLA +6
The UCLA Bruins have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college football in 2013. They have opened 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread with impressive road wins over Nebraska (41-21) and Utah (34-27). That
|10-19-13||Florida v. Missouri +3.5||17-36||Win||100||47 h 8 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +3.5
The Missouri Tigers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their impressive 6-0 start. They have gone 5-1 against the spread in the process, with their only non-cover coming in a 22-point victory over Arkansas State as a 23-point favorite. They are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition with all six victories coming by 15 points or more. That
|10-19-13||Purdue +28 v. Michigan State||0-14||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +28
The Michigan State Spartans are getting way too much respect from the books Saturday. This line is an over-inflation due to Michigan State's 42-28 win over Indiana last week, coupled with Purdue's 7-44 loss to Nebraska. I believe there is a ton of value with the Boilermakers in this one, and I'll back them because of it.
The Spartans need to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us, and I don't believe they are capable of it. Aside from their 55-17 victory over Youngstown State, the Spartans' biggest win this season came by a final of 21-6 at home over South Florida as a 21-point favorite. They also failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in their opener with a 26-13 victory against lowly Western Michigan.
Michigan State simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to cover big spreads like this. It has been held to 30.5 points and 374.7 total yards per game this season to rank 87th in the country in total offense. There's no question that the Spartans have one of the best defenses in the country, but their offense isn't going to put up enough points to cover this inflated number.
Purdue has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games, so the betting public is obviously not willing to back this team. It was only a 21.5-point underdog at Wisconsin on September 21, and now it is a 28-point dog to Michigan State. Comparing these two spreads alone show that this line is inflated when you consider that Wisconsin is a better team than Michigan State.
The Boilermakers have shown some promise offensively in recent weeks. They put up 524 total yards in a loss to Northern Illinois on September 28 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The defense has been better than average too, giving up 417 total yards per game against six offenses that are combining to average 444 yards per game on the season.
The biggest reason for Purdue's slow start is a brutal schedule that has been much tougher than that of Michigan State. It has already played the likes of Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Nebraska. Those five teams all have winning records and have combined for a 23-7 record on the season. Only two of Michigan State's six opponents thus far have winning records in Notre Dame and Iowa.
This has been a very closely-contested series. Purdue only lost 31-35 at Michigan State as a 20.5-point underdog in their most recent meeting. Each of the last 12 meetings since 1997 have been decided by 24 points or less with eight of those contests behind decided by 10 points or fewer. That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Boilermakers pertaining to today's spread of 28.
The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Michigan State is 2-9 against the spread as a home favorite over the last two seasons. It is only winning 23.9 to 17.4 on average in this spot, or by 6.5 points per game. Roll with Purdue Saturday.
|10-19-13||Connecticut v. Cincinnati -13||16-41||Win||100||47 h 49 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -13
The Cincinnati Bearcats have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country. After opening 3-0 at home this season, they are now 50-14 at home over the past 11 years. The have already rolled Purdue (42-7), Northwestern State (66-9) and Temple (38-20) at home this season. They are outscoring their opponents at home by an average of 36.7 points per game in 2013.
Cincinnati will be up against a Connecticut team that is one of the worst in all of college football. The Huskies have opened 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in 2013 with three of those losses coming by double-digits. They lost 10-13 at home to South Florida last week as a 3.5-point favorite.
The Huskies are in shambles right now with the firing of head coach Paul Pasqualoni after four games. Their worst loss came on the road on September 28 in a 12-41 setback at Buffalo. It was their lone road game of the season, which makes their 0-5 start even worse when you consider they have played four home games compared to just one on the road. I expect a similar beat down at the hands of Cincinnati in this one.
The Huskies are averaging 16.4 points and 290.4 yards per game to rank a woeful 117th in the country in total offense. They are going to have a very hard time moving the ball on one of the best defenses in the land. Cincinnati is giving up just 17.8 points and 271.8 yards per game to rank 6th in total defense. The offense hasn
|10-19-13||SMU v. Memphis -3||Top||34-29||Loss||-120||47 h 49 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -3
The Tigers may be the best 1-4 team in college football. Their four losses have come against Duke (14-28), Middle Tennessee State (15-17), UCF (17-24) and Houston (15-25.). In their best performance of the season, they beat a very good Arkansas State team 31-7 at home on September 21. Memphis outgained Houston by 102 yards, UCF by 123 yards and Middle Tennessee by 66 yards, but found a way to lose those three games when they really should have won given the numbers.
Memphis has a massive edge on defense in this one. It is giving up just 20.2 points and 305.2 yards per game to rank 11th in the entire country in total defense. It is giving up just 91.0 yards on the ground and 214.2 through the air. SMU, meanwhile, is allowing 43.2 points and 445.8 yards per game to rank 98th in total defense. The Mustangs are 1-4 on the season with their only win coming against Montana State by a final of 31-30 at home. They have allowed 41 or more points in their four losses.
Plays on any team (MEMPHIS)
|10-19-13||TCU v. Oklahoma State -7||10-24||Win||100||47 h 48 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State -7
The Cowboys are 4-1 and still have a ton to play for in the wide open Big 12 despite an early loss to West Virginia. With two Big 12 losses already, TCU really is behind the eight ball in terms of competing for a conference championship in 2013.
Oklahoma State will come into this game on two weeks
|10-18-13||Central Florida +13 v. Louisville||Top||38-35||Win||100||44 h 35 m||Show|
20* UCF/Louisville AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida +13
|10-17-13||Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7||Top||34-22||Loss||-120||20 h 19 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Arizona +7
The Arizona Cardinals were clearly one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into 2013. They have opened 3-3 this season despite playing a tough schedule to this point that has featured four road games with two of them coming against San Francisco and New Orleans. They are playing their best football at home, going 2-0 while beating a pair of quality opponents in the Lions (25-21) and Panthers (22-6).
The defense recently returned linebacker Daryl Washington, and he and Karlos Dansby have been a force in recent weeks. This is one of the more underrated stop units in the league as well, allowing a respectable 21.2 points per game on the season. Arizona actually outplayed San Francisco last week, but lost 20-32 despite outgaining the opposition 403-387 for the game. The Cardinals simply gave that game away by committing four turnovers. After playing the 49ers tough on the road, they have a good chance of keeping it close against the Seahawks at home.
Seattle has been at its worst on the road this season. Despite being 2-1, it was fortunate to beat both Houston (23-20) and Carolina (12-7) after needing to come behind in the second half to do so. They even erased a 20-3 halftime deficit against the Texans that was aided by yet another pick-six from Matt Schaub late. The Seahawks were outgained by 206 total yards in that contest. They also lost at Indianapolis 28-34 in their last road contest. As you can see, the Seahawks have not won a road game yet this season by more than five points.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won each of the last four meetings over the past two seasons. Arizona has won six of its last seven home meetings with Seattle. It clearly wants revenge from the worst loss of the season last year, which was a 58-0 drubbing in Seattle late in the season. The Cardinals had nothing to play for at the time, and these players have not forgotten that defeat. They'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with Seattle.
Seattle has some big injury concerns heading into this game. Its leading tackler from last season in Bobby Wagner is doubtful with an ankle injury. Its leading sacker from last season in Chris Clemons (11.5 sacks) is also doubtful with an elbow injury. Marshawn Lynch is nursing a hip injury as well and sat out of practice Tuesday, though he is expected to go Thursday. Arizona got some good news when DE Calais Campbell, LB Karlos Dansby and WR Larry Fitzgerald all practiced Tuesday. All three are expected to play in this one.
The Cardinals are 26-9 against the spread in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 75% on the season. Arizona is 39-16 against the number in its last 55 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6 or more points per game. Bruce Arians is 8-0 against the spread in home games in all games he has coached. The Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS loss. Arizona is 5-0 against the number in its last five games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. These last four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Arizona. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.
|10-17-13||Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +9.5||27-23||Win||101||19 h 10 m||Show|
15* Miami/UNC ESPN Thursday ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +9.5
|10-15-13||Louisiana-Lafayette v. Western Kentucky -4||Top||37-20||Loss||-110||9 h 55 m||Show|
20* LA-Lafayette/WKU Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Western Kentucky -4
After opening the season with an impressive 35-26 win over Kentucky, the Hilltoppers dropped their next two road contests at Tennessee and South Alabama. They have been a completely different team since, reeling off three straight blowout victories over Morgan State (58-17), Navy (19-7) and Louisiana-Monroe (31-10). This team is hitting its stride under first-year head coach, Bobby Petrino.
Western Kentucky is scoring 31.2 points and averaging a whopping 473.7 yards per game to rank 30th in the country in total offense. Quarterback Brandon Doughty has thrived in Petrino
|10-14-13||Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 50.5||Top||9-19||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
20* Colts/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 50.5
I believe the recent OVER run on Monday Night Football has forced the oddsmakers to inflate tonight's total set. Each of the last three MNF games have gone OVER the number, and five out of six on the season. With the way the public likes to bet MNF as it is, the oddsmakers can not longer continue to take a pounding by setting the number too low.
What I really like about this UNDER is that it's strength vs. strength, which clearly favors a defensive battle. Indianapolis ranks 5th in the league in pass defense, giving up just 201.4 yards per game through the air. San Diego features a very one-dimensional offense, ranking 3rd in the league in passing offense at 311.2 yards per game.
I look for the Colts to slow down Philip Rivers in this one, especially with the pressure they'll get from the front four, including NFL sack leader Robert Mathis. San Diego has had one of the most underrated run defenses in the league over the last several years. It is strong at the point of attack again, allowing 117.2 yards per game despite going up against five offenses that average 127 yards per game on the ground. Stopping the run will be big considering the Colts rank 4th in the league in rushing offense at 142.0 yards per game.
Five of the last six meetings between San Diego and Indianapolis have seen 50 or less combined points. The Colts and their opponents had combined for 44 or less points in each of their first four games of the season before a high-scoring affair with Seattle last week that ended with a final score of 34-28. The Colts were very fortunate to score 34 points considering they had just 317 yards of total offense in the game. I believe that misleading final score last week also has this total inflated.
San Diego is 31-16 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992. The Colts are 12-3 UNDER against AFC opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Colts last 5 road games. The UNDER is 10-3 in Colts last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-13-13||Washington Redskins +6 v. Dallas Cowboys||Top||16-31||Loss||-110||53 h 56 m||Show|
25* Redskins/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +6
The Washington Redskins have given the Dallas Cowboys all they have wanted and more over the last several years. They won both meetings last year, winning 38-31 in Dallas and 28-18 at home with the NFC East title on the line. In fact, only once in the last 13 meetings has Washington lost to Dallas by more than 5 points. That
|10-13-13||Jacksonville Jaguars +27.5 v. Denver Broncos||19-35||Win||100||49 h 30 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Broncos AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Jacksonville +27.5
Even with how bad Jacksonville has been, any time the books are going to give me nearly four touchdowns in an NFL game, I'm going to look to take it. There
|10-13-13||Carolina Panthers +1 v. Minnesota Vikings||35-10||Win||113||45 h 26 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Upset Special on Carolina Panthers +1
Carolina has held a halftime lead in each of its first four games of the season. It has blown three of those leads in the second half, and it