20* Eagles/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day MAIN COURSE on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) are 8-1 this season when Tony Romo plays the entire 60 minutes. The only loss came in the opener against the 49ers back when he was rusty after missing much of training camp with a back injury. He appears fully healthy now in leading the Cowboys to back-to-back wins and 31 points each against the Jaguars and Giants since returning from another back injury suffered against the Redskins.

Romo leads a Dallas offense that is putting up 26.5 points and 386.8 yards per game this season, ranking 6th in the league in total offense. Without question, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 68.8 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.5 per attempt.

A big reason for his success has been the offensive line and running game behind DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and seven scores to lead the league in rushing.  In fact, the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 150.1 yards per game as a team.

This Dallas offense should have its way with a Philadelphia defense that has been atrocious this year. The Eagles are giving up 25.0 points and 375.2 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total defense. They have been even worse on the road, where they are 2-3 and giving up 30.2 points and 385 yards per game away from home.

Another big reason for Dallas’ resurgence this season has been its defense, which is giving up a respectable 21.8 points and 355.0 yards per game on the year. The Cowboys have been solid against the run, allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, so they should be able to hold LeSean McCoy in check in this one.

Philadelphia has looked good at home since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback, but its two home wins with him under center have come against Carolina and Tennessee.  The Eagles were blown out in Sanchez's lone road start this year, a 20-53 beat down at the hands of Green Bay.  He completed just 59% of his passes and threw two picks in the loss, one that was returned for a touchdown.

Dallas is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia over the past two seasons. The only game it lost was in Week 17 last year when Romo had to miss the game due to his back injury. Even then, the Cowboys only lost 22-24 and actually outgained the Eagles 414-366 for the game with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Look for Romo to improve to 4-0 in his last four starts against the Eagles with a win Thursday.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) – off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS since 1983.  Another factor to consider is that this is a short week, which is much easier for the home team.  Traveling on a short week is very tough for the road team with only three days in between games and very little practice time.

Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

20* Ravens/Saints MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans -3

There is one thing that really stands out to me about this game and shows that there is value in backing the Saints as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens. In their last two games, the Saints were 6-point home favorites against the 49ers and 8.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. After losing those two games, they are only 3-point home favorites this week.

I believe both the 49ers and Bengals are better teams than the Ravens, but they were both much bigger road underdogs. After all, Cincinnati did beat Baltimore twice this year. This over-adjustment from the oddsmakers has provided us with a ton of line value in backing the Saints at home. Sure, the Ravens are coming off a bye week, but that bye is not worth this many points.

Without question, New Orleans still has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-2 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-3-1 (86%) ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL despite the losses the last two weeks.

I have no doubt that the Saints are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate. Four of their six losses have come by a field goal or less and a combined nine points. That’s how close this is to being possibly an 8-2 team. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by 54.6 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Seahawks rank ahead of them in this department, and all four of those teams are borderline elite.

Baltimore is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with its two wins coming against the likes of Cleveland and Tampa Bay. It has lost at Indianapolis (13-20), Cincinnati (24-27) and Pittsburgh (23-43). This team is clearly not as good on the road as it is at home, where it is 4-1 on the season. Plus, New Orleans hasn’t lost three straight home games since 2005.

The Saints’ problems certainly aren’t on Drew Brees. He leads a Saints offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 424.5 yards per game.  Brees has been great all season, completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,071 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He should have another big day against a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st against the pass, giving up 251.2 yards per game. The Ravens have only picked off opposing quarterbacks six times all season.

New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games overall. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) actually have a fighting chance to win the NFC South. They are only two games back of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons for first place, who each share identical 4-6 records. Such is life in this weak division, but the Buccaneers certainly have reason to be motivated right now due to their circumstances.

The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, don’t have a whole lot to play for at this point. They are 4-6 on the season and three games back of both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. I’m not saying they won’t show up Sunday, but I do expect the Buccaneers to be the more motivated team.

Both head coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown want revenge on their former team. Smith went 81-63 in his nine seasons with the Bears and was fired after failing to make the playoffs in 2012 despite a 10-6 record. McCown went 3-2 as a starter for the Bears last year with 11 touchdowns and only one interception before signing with Tampa Bay this offseason. Look for the Bucs’ players to rally around these two Sunday.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman is squarely on the hot seat. With Smith, Chicago only gave up 19.2 points per game and 40 or more points four times in nine seasons. Under Trestman, the Bears are just 12-14, and they have given up 29.5 points per game while allowing 40 or more a whopping six times. This defense just cannot be trusted, which is why the Bears should not be laying six points to the Bucs this week.

The Bucs have been playing their best football over their last three games. They have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite going 1-2 as they were competitive in losses to the Browns and Falcons. They got back on track last week with a 27-7 win at Washington. McCown threw for 288 yards and two TD passes to rookie Mike Evans. He has thrown for 589 yards and four touchdowns against two picks in two starts since regaining the starting job he lost after suffering a thumb injury.

Tampa Bay has actually played its best football on the road this season.  While it is just 2-3 straight up away from home, it has gone a sensational 4-1 ATS.  Both of its wins came on the road against the Redskins and Steelers.  It also played New Orleans tough in a 31-37 (OT) loss as an 11-point dog and Cleveland tough in a 17-22 loss as a 7-point road dog.

Just having Smith and McCown’s knowledge of Chicago will be a huge asset in preparation this week. McCown can give the Tampa Bay defense the entire Chicago playbook, and you know that Smith will take advantage of it with his defensive expertise. There’s no question that the Bucs will have the edge in preparation because of it.

The last four games between Tampa Bay and Chicago have all been decided by six points or less with two of those going into overtime. In fact, the Buccaneers have not lost by more than six points to Chicago in any of their last six meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that happened. Dating back further, the Bucs have stayed within six points of the Bears in 17 of their last 18 meetings. That’s a 17-1 system backing the Bucs pertaining to the 6-point spread this week.

Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following a win. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Vikings +9

There is no question that the Green Bay Packers (7-3) are overvalued right now due to scoring 50-plus points in each of their last two games, which is a first in franchise history. Asking any NFL team to go on the road to win by double-digits to cover is asking a lot. That’s especially the case in a division rivalry game like this one as these games are always played closer to the vest.

Sure, the Packers beat the Eagles 53-20 last week, but that score was very misleading. They only outgained the Eagles by 46 yards in the win. Their defense gave up 429 yards to the Eagles as well. The difference was that Philadelphia committed four turnovers, and Green Bay capitalized with a whopping three non-offensive touchdowns. Any time a team is coming off a game with multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns, they are likely going to be overvalued the next week.

Sure, the Packers are 7-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers shows that they are not as good as their record would indicate. They actually rank just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 7.9 yards per game. That’s due to a defense that ranks 25th in the league in allowing 377.4 yards per game. This defense just cannot be trusted.

Green Bay did crush Minnesota 42-10 in the first meeting this year, but Christian Ponder was the starting quarterback in that game. It was closer than the final score would indicate, too, as the Packers only outgained the Vikings 320-299 for the game. The Packers simply capitalized on three Minnesota turnovers, including one that resulted in a defensive touchdown.

One thing that shows how blatantly obvious it is that the Packers are overvalued this week is based on the line compared to the first time these teams played.  Green Bay was a 9.5-point home favorite over Minnesota in the first meeting.  And, that was with Ponder as the Vikings' quarterback.  When you factor in home-field advantage, the Packers should only be a 3.5-point favorite at Minnesota in the rematch.  Factor in that Bridgewater is now the quarterback, and perhaps the Packers shouldn't even be favored at all.

The Vikings have been much more competitive with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback. They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS with Bridgewater at the helm. They beat Atlanta 41-28 and Washington 29-26 at home, while also topping Tampa Bay 19-13 on the road. They were even competitive in their losses aside from perhaps a 3-17 loss to Detroit. They also fell at Buffalo 16-17 and at Chicago 13-21.  So, they have essentially been in every game they've played with Bridgewater under center.

Bridgewater should have a very good day against this suspect Green Bay defense, but what really gives Minnesota a chance to keep this game close is its own stop unit. The Vikings are vastly improved on this side of the ball under the guidance of first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. They rank 12th in the league in total defense, giving up 340.5 yards per game. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three years.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -1

The Houston Texans (5-5) are coming off arguably their best performance of the season. They went into Cleveland and came away with a 23-7 victory last week. It was certainly their best offensive output of their year as they racked up 424 total yards in the win. A whopping 213 of that came on the ground even without Arian Foster, and he is questionable to return this week, so they have shown they can win without him in case he cannot go.

The real difference was the insertion of Ryan Mallett at quarterback over the bye week. Mallett has been biding his time in New England as Tom Brady’s backup, and he finally got his chance. This guy has a rocket of an arm on him and is a clear upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mallett completed 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the win over the Browns, which is no small feat in a tough environment.

Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. Despite its 6-3-1 record, it is only outscoring teams 22.4 to 22.1 on the year. It is actually getting outgained by an average of 39.4 yards per game, ranking 25th in the league in yardage differential. Every team in the NFL that is ranked 22nd or worse in yardage differential has no better than a .500 record aside from the Bengals, which shows how fortunate they are to have the record that they do at this point in the season.

Houston is actually outscoring teams 22.9 to 20.4 on the season, showing that by score margin alone, it is the better team than Cincinnati. Yet, this line of -1 is saying that the Bengals would be roughly 2-3 points better than the Texans on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, which is why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Texans at home in Week 12. They are in must-win mode right now if they want to make the playoffs, and I love their chances of making a run with Mallett at quarterback and J.J. Watt leading the D.

Houston is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati. It has outscored the Bengals 133-65 in the five games, or by an average of 13.6 points per game. It has outgained the Bengals by 222, 40, 127, 176 and 131 yards in its last five meetings, respectively. The Texans simply have the Bengals’ number, and I look for that to continue in 2014.

Houston ranks 3rd in the league in rushing, averaging 144.6 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season. That makes this a great matchup for the Texans. The Bengals rank 28th in the league against the run, giving up 136.2 yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season. Cincinnati is 21-40 ATS in its last 61 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game.

Plays on favorites (HOUSTON) – good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) are 61-33 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) – off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog are 123-75 (62.1%) ATS since 1983. The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

Any time you are catching double-digits in the NFL it’s a wise move to first look at taking the underdog. These double-digits dogs have proven to be a very profitable bet throughout the years. I have enough reasons supporting the Jaguars to feel confident in taking the 14 points this week against the Colts despite the fact that they have not played well against them in recent meetings.

Jacksonville has been a completely different team in its last five games. Sure, it has gone 1-4 in its last five, but all four losses have come by 14 points or fewer. In fact, the Jaguars have not lost by more than 14 points since September. They arguably should not be 1-4 in their last five either because a closer look at the box scores show that they have actually outplayed the opposition.

The Jaguars have actually outgained their last five opponents by a total of 86 yards. They outgained the Titans by 89 yards in a 14-16 road loss, outgained the Browns by 70 yards in a 24-6 home win, outgained the Dolphins by 51 yards in a 13-27 home loss, were outgained by the Bengals by 58 yards in a 23-33 road loss, and were outgained by the Cowboys by 66 yards in a 17-31 road loss. So, they haven’t been outgained by more than 66 yards in any of their last five games.

The rest factor for the Jaguars coming into this one is going to be huge. They finally had their bye last week, and they would love nothing more than to beat the division-leading Colts when they return from it Sunday. Having two full weeks to prepare for this game should do this young team wonders. They could also catch the Colts in a hangover spot from their poor performance against the Patriots last week.

This Indianapolis defense is terrible. It has given up an average of 39.0 points and 526.0 yards per game in its last three games. It gave up 42 points and 501 yards to the Patriots, 24 points and 438 yards to the Giants, and 51 points and 639 yards to the Steelers in its last three games, respectively. I believe the Jaguars will be able to move the football and put up enough points to stay within the number on Sunday.

Jacksonville is an improved defensive team as well since its first meeting with Indianapolis. It has given up a respectable 340.8 yards per game in its last five games overall. That’s impressive when you consider that it has faced some solid offenses during this stretch in Cleveland, Miami, Cincinnati and Dallas. Andrew Luck isn’t going to have the kind of success he did the first time around, especially with head coach Gus Bradley getting two weeks to prepare.

The Colts also lost a key piece to their offense in running back Ahmad Bradshaw to an ankle injury. This guy is simply irreplaceable as Trent Richardson is only half the back that Bradshaw is. Bradshaw leads the team in rushing with 425 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s an even bigger threat in the passing game. Indeed, he has a sneaky 38 receptions for 300 yards and six touchdowns on the year. Richardson only averages 3.4 yards per carry compared to Bradshaw’s 4.7. Richardson has only caught 22 passes and has yet to score.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a terrible team winning less than 25% of its games playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) actually find themselves tied for first place in the division despite their 4-6 record, and they even own the tiebreaker over the Saints. Such is life in the NFC South this season, but the Falcons aren’t going to complain. Most 4-6 teams at this point in the season would have little to play for, but that’s not the case here.

The Falcons have scratched, clawed and fought their way back into contention with impressive road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks. Their solid play here of late even extends back to the game before as they held a 21-0 lead over the Lions in London only to lose on a last-second field goal, 22-21.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC.

The biggest difference for the Falcons during this stretch of solid play is their defense. They have held their last three opponents to an average of just 18.7 points per game. That has helped compliment an offense that remains one of the league’s best. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points per game while ranking 10th in total offense at 367.3 yards per game.

Cleveland (6-4) is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season. It is nowhere near as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and the numbers show it. The Browns rank just 22nd in the league in total defense, giving up 372.3 yards per game. They also rank 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 16.2 yards per game. Of all the teams that rank below them at 22nd or worse in this department, only the Bengals have a winning record. Cincinnati is also an overrated team.  The Browns have been outgained in four of their last five games, including to Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

The Browns gave up 424 total yards to a mediocre Houston offense last week, including 213 rushing without Arian Foster, in their 23-7 loss.  The Browns are just decimated right now in the injury department on defense.  They are already missing defensive end Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.  Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn have been slowed all season by injuries.  Now, they are going to be without their top two linebackers in Karlos Dansby (leading tackler, 73 tackles, 10 for loss, 3 sacks) and Jabaal Sheard (6 TFL, 2 sacks), who each went down with injuries in the loss to Houston.

I know that the Cleveland offense gets back Josh Gordon this week, but that's another reason I believe it is being overvalued here.  Gordon hasn't played all season and I expect him to be a non-factor this week, or at least not as big of a factor as he's getting credit for.  One thing here that gets overlooked is that the Browns have had no running game since center Alex Mack went out with a season-ending injury.  They are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry in Mack's absence.

The Falcons have actually done a decent job of getting to 4-6 this season because they have only played three home games all year compared to seven on the road. They are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan is 38-12 as a starter inside the Georgia Dome for his career. Many folks like to forget how much more dominant he has been at home compared to on the road over his career.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has played six of its 10 games at home thus far, which had aided its 6-4 record.  It is a respectable 2-2 on the road with a good win against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but the other three performances leave a lot to be desired.  The Browns lost 6-24 at Jacksonville, came back from 28-3 down to win 29-28 at lowly Tennessee, and came back from 27-3 down to lose 27-30 at Pittsburgh in the opener.

Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) – after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  I look for Ryan and company to win in a shootout.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +7.5

Any time you’re backing the team with the worst record in the NFL this late in the season, there’s going to be some value. I certainly believe that is the case Thursday with the Oakland Raiders (0-10), who are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. They would love nothing more than to get it against one of their most hated rivals in the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3).

The Raiders have been fighting hard for weeks now, but they continually come up short. By their results, they clearly have not packed it in. Five of their last six losses have come by 11 points or less, and all six were against playoff contenders in San Diego (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle and Denver. This brutal schedule will have them battle-tested heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Kansas City is in a massive letdown AND lookahead spot here. It just beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday, and now it has Denver on deck at home next week with first place in the AFC West on the line.  They will have a hard time getting up emotionally for the Raiders enough to win this game by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover the spread.

The Chiefs are also way overvalued here because they have covered the spread in five consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and so have the oddsmakers, forcing them to inflate this line above the key number of seven.  Any time you get a home underdog in the NFL catching more than a touchdown, there's going to be some value.  That's especially the case in division rivalry games that are played much closer to the vest.  Most of the time, records can be thrown out the window in these games.

Oakland has gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas City over the past four seasons. In fact, the Raiders have outgained the Chiefs in seven of their last eight meetings. Sure, the Chiefs swept the season series last year, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. The Raiders outgained the Chiefs 274-216 in their 24-7 road loss. They also outgained the Chiefs 461-384 in their 31-56 home loss.

Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on any team (OAKLAND) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 99-57 (63.5%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 8-26 ATS in its last 34 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Roll with the Raiders Thursday.

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Titans AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) got the wake-up call they needed last week on a 20-13 road loss to the Jets. That will help them avoid a letdown this week against the Titans knowing that they need a win if they want to win the AFC North division. They cannot afford to lose to teams like this if they are going to make the playoffs, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win by a touchdown or more. They will also be extra motivated to lay it all on the line knowing that their bye is next week.

Pittsburgh was playing some great football prior to that loss to the Jets. It had beaten Houston (30-23), Indianapolis (51-34) and Baltimore (43-23) in impressive efforts by the offense the previous three weeks. The loss to the Jets was a complete fluke as they actually outgained them 362-275 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the win to New York. They will be much sharper with the football this week against Tennessee because of it.

The Titans are abysmal this year. They have gone through three different starting quarterbacks because the offense just hasn’t been able to get anything going. They played well in their opener against Kansas City, but haven’t played well since. Their only other win was a 16-14 home victory over the hapless Jaguars, and they were even outgained by 89 yards in that game.

Five of the Titans’ seven losses have come by 14 points or more, so they have been prone to the blowout regularly. They have actually been outgained by 50 or more yards in each of their last six games, and by 102 or more yards in three of those. They rank 31st in the league in total offense, averaging just 308.7 yards per game. They stand at 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 60.0 yards per game on the season.

Tennessee (2-7) won’t be able to keep up with a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 408.4 yards per game. The Steelers have been better defensively, too, giving up 347.0 yards per game compared to the 368.7 yards per game the Titans have allow. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining the opposition by an average of 61.4 yards per game on the season.

Rookie Zach Mettengerger has played OK in his two starts for the Titans, but he has not done anything special and will struggle against Dick LeBeau's complicated blitz schemes in this one.  In fact, the Steelers are 18-2 against rookie signla-callers since LeBeau returned as defensive coordinator in 2004.

Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-29 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Tennessee is 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Tennessee is 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 home games. The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions +1

The Arizona Cardinals can survive without Carson Palmer. However, they clearly aren’t going to be as strong of a team without him, and Drew Stanton has struggled in limited action this year. He has gone 2-1 as a starter without Palmer, but the two wins came against the likes of the Texans and Giants, while the other was a blowout loss to the Broncos. Stanton is completing just 49.5% of his passes on the season compared to Palmer’s 62.9%.

This Arizona team is one of the most overrated in the league. It got two defensive touchdowns late last week to get the win and cover against the Rams, and it has been getting lucky breaks like that all year. They are +12 in turnover differential on the season, which is tied for first in the NFL.  Regression to the mean is going to happen at some point for this team.  A closer look into the numbers shows that the Cardinals are nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.

The Cardinals rank just 24th in the league in total offense at 330.9 yards per game. They rank 15th in total defense at 352.8 yards per game and have been nowhere near as dominant as they get credit for on that side of the ball. They rank 21st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 21.9 yards per game. They have been outgained by over 200 yards on the season.  Only one team (Cincinnati) ranked worse than them in yardage differential even has a .500 record or better, so they are in some pretty bad company.

Detroit, meanwhile, is the real deal this season. It has managed to go 7-2 despite playing without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for a good portion of the season. Johnson returned last week as the Lions beat the Dolphins 20-16 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Lions outgained the Dolphins 351-228 for the game, but they had a field goal blocked that was returned to their 3-yard line to set up Miami’s only touchdown. Otherwise, that game was a complete rout in the Lions' favor.

The reason the Lions have been able to play well without Johnson and Bush for stretches is because of their defense. Indeed, they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense AND total defense, giving up just 15.8 points and 283.4 yards per game. They are also 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 56.7 yards per game. You have to really look out for this team now that Johnson is back because the offense had underachieved up to this point, but it has the talent to be one of the best units in the NFL.

Arizona is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Detroit is 38-21 ATS in its last 59 versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or more rushing yards per game. Arizona has been good against the run but terrible against the pass (30th), giving up 274 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt through the air. That plays right into the Lions hands as they rely a lot more on the pass than the run to move the football.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -9

This game really has blowout written all over it. Simply put, the St. Louis Rams (3-6) aren’t going to be able to score enough points to keep up with Denver’s high-powered offense in this one. Peyton Manning will love the opportunity to go back indoors and play in a dome just like he used to in his Indianapolis days. He should thrive against the hapless Rams inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

Manning leads a Denver unit that is putting up 31.8 points and 414.7 yards per game on the season to rank 3rd in the league in total offense. That is really impressive when you consider that it has faced a very tough schedule up to this point. It has already had two play two of the league’s top three defenses in San Francisco and Seattle, and it put up an average of 31.0 points per game against those two teams.

Many will hang onto St. Louis’ recent wins over San Francisco and Seattle as a barometer of what it is capable of. However, the Rams should have lost both of those games as they were outgained by 188 yards by the Seahawks and 70 yards by the 49ers. They have actually actually been outgained by 70 or more yards in five straight games, which includes blowout losses to the Cardinals (14-31), Chiefs (7-34) and 49ers (17-31) during this stretch.

Opposing defensive coordinators now have no problem stopping the Rams’ offense. They have caught on to Austin Davis’ tendencies, but the fact of the matter is that he simply doesn’t have much talent around him.  The Rams are expected to give the ball to Shaun Hill for this one, and the results are going to be the same or even worse.  Davis actually did a pretty good job of working with what he had, which isn't much.

The Rams rank 30th in the NFL in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  They have scored 11.3 points per game while averaging 212.3 yards per game in their last three.  They have played five straight physical games against San Francisco (twice), Seattle, Kansas City and Arizona.  They don't have a whole lot left in the tank at this point, especially considering they have little to play for the rest of the way.

As stated before, they simply do not have the firepower on the offensive side of the ball to match the Broncos score for score and to stay within single-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread. A contributing factor to that will be this improved Denver stop unit. The Broncos are only giving up 314.1 yards per game this season to rank 5th in the NFL in total defense. Unlike last year, they have been dominant on both sides of the football in 2014.

The Broncos are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall with 21 of those victories coming by a touchdown or more. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. It is beating these teams by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle +1.5

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the defending champs as an underdog. Seattle is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games as a dog.  I believe you should take advantage almost any chance you get, especially this week against the overmatched Chiefs. The Seahawks obviously haven’t played up to their potential to this point, but that is the reason they are undervalued. They have still won three in a row coming in, and their numbers are just as good as they were last year.

Seattle put up 510 total yards on the Giants last week and I would argue that the offense is more explosive than it was a year ago. That has been proven in the numbers as the Seahawks rank 10th in the league in total offense this year at 365.3 yards per game. They have put up an average of 26.7 points per game as well. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league with what he can do with his arm and his legs.

The Seahawks have had a banged-up offensive line all season.  They finally are getting healthy as both tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger have returned to the lineup.  Marshawn Lynch has been his same old dominant self as a result.  Lynch rushed for 140 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week as the Seahawks racked up 350 yards on the ground as a team.

While the Seahawks aren’t No. 1 in the NFL in total defense like they were a year ago, they are still damn close and have an elite stop unit. They are only giving up 21.2 points per game and 306.7 yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. They rank 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Keep in mind that they have also faced a brutal schedule up to this point, which is always the case for the defending champs.

Kansas City has done a nice job of fighting back from an 0-2 hole to win six of its last seven games overall. However, that winning streak is the reason I believe it is overvalued here. All six of those wins outside of St. Louis, which is one of the worst teams in the NFC, came against AFC opponents. Seattle will be the best team that the Chiefs have faced this year, aside from perhaps the Broncos, which was one of their three losses.

Last week, the Chiefs were dominated in the box score by the Bills, getting outgained 278-364 for the game, but they managed to erase a 13-3 deficit to win 17-13. They were aided by three turnovers from the Bills. They won’t be given those same gifts this week, and when they get dominated in the box score by the Seahawks, they will lose like they should.

Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 332.0 yards per game. Alex Smith remains a dink-and-dunk passer, and that is not going to work against this physical Seattle defense. Smith is going to be forced to try to make some plays over the top, and I don’t believe he is capable of doing so. He also lacks the weapons to do it.  In fact, the Chiefs have not had a touchdown by a wide receiver all season.  That is absolutely pathetic and prevents the Chiefs from being among the elite teams in the league.

Smith is a good game manager, but when they need him to really step up and make plays against elite defenses like Seattle, he simply isn’t equipped to do it. A good example of that came back on October 5th against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 2nd in the league in total defense. The Chiefs managed just 17 points and 265 total yards in that game, including just 175 passing. Smith didn’t make enough plays against the 49ers to win, and he won’t this week, either.

Seattle is a sensational 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons & 15-2 ATS as a dog in its last 17 overall. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Chiefs are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) are still very much alive in the NFC South race. They are just one game behind the Saints (4-5) for first place in the division, and they own the tiebreaker as well after beating New Orleans at home back in Week 1. That’s why motivation will not be a factor for this team, which has to have a lot of confidence that it can go on the road and win again after beating the Bucs 27-17 last week.

It was the second straight solid performance for the Falcons away from home. They had gone over to London in their previous game and should have beaten the Detroit Lions, but they let a 21-0 lead get away from them and lost 21-22. That narrow loss to the Lions doesn’t look bad at all considering Detroit is 7-2 on the season and one of the best teams in the NFC.

Carolina is far from the team it was a year ago. It has all kinds of problems on both sides of the football. It has only won one of its last eight games overall. The Panthers have been blown out repeatedly during this stretch, losing to the likes of Pittsburgh (19-37) by 18, Baltimore (10-38) by 28, Green Bay (17-38) by 21, New Orleans (10-28) by 18, and Philadelphia (21-45) by 24. They will now be working on a short week as well after losing to the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

There is nothing to like about the Panthers on either side of the football. They rank 25th in the league in total offense at 320.8 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 376.8 yards per game. That leaves them at 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 56.0 yards per game.

The Panthers have actually been outgained in nine straight games since their opener against Tampa Bay. They have also been outscored by 8.3 points per game on the season as they are yielding 28.1 per game defensively and scoring 19.8 per game on offense.  They have allowed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games while yielding an average of 32.5 points per game during this stretch.

Admittedly, the Falcons don’t have a very good defense, but they have played better on this side of the football in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in their last two, so they have shown some progress on defense of late unlike the Panthers, who just seem to get worse each week.

What makes the Falcons the play this week is their offense, which has produced 24.3 points and 369.7 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. It’s been nice to see what Matt Ryan can do when he has a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White at his disposal.  The Atlanta offense will be the difference in this one as it will consistently put up points on this weak Carolina defense.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – after having lost six or seven out of their last eight games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -7

I simply trust the New Orleans Saints more than the Cincinnati Bengals right now. They have done an excellent job of fighting back from a 2-4 start to win two of their last three games with their only loss coming in overtime to the 49ers. They blew out both the Packers (44-23) at home and the Panthers (28-10) on the road, and they are fully capable of doing the same to the Bengals this week.

One thing that really stands out about that loss to the 49ers last week is that they simply gave it away by committing three turnovers. They actually outgained the 49ers 423-330 for the game, or by 93 total yards. They obviously should have won, but the fact that they didn’t has made this line smaller than it should be.

I really do not trust the Bengals to perform well right now. They have gone just 2-3-1 in their last four games overall with all three losses coming via blowout against New England (17-43), Indianapolis (0-27) and Cleveland (3-24). The loss to the Browns last week was the most troubling because they were dominated so handily. The Browns actually outgained them 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards, in their 24-3 win in Cincinnati.

That’s right, the Cincinnati offense was held to just 165 total yards against the Browns. It also committed four turnovers in the loss. Andy Dalton was abysmal, completing just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards with three interceptions. I don’t believe he can match Drew Brees score for score in this one, which is what it’s going to take for the Bengals to stay within a touchdown. I’ll gladly bet against Dalton with the way he has been playing of late.

Brees is hitting on all cylinders again this season. He leads a New Orleans unit that is putting up 27.9 points per game while ranking 2nd in the league in total offense at 435.0 yards per game. He should have his way with a Cincinnati defense that ranks 30th in the league in giving up 391.9 yards per game. So, the entire problem isn’t all on Dalton’s shoulders because the defense has been atrocious as well.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-1 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 home game. It's also worth noting that the Saints haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2009.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent. The Bengals are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss by 21 points or more. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. It is coming back to win by an average of 19.0 points per game in this spot. Cincinnati is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Road teams are 7-21 ATS in the last 28 games involving the Bengals.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Dolphins AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo +5

Favorites in primetime games this year have made the betting public a ton of money. I believe that’s a contributing factor as to why the Dolphins are 5-point home favorites over the Bills in this one as the books don’t want to get burnt again. That’s a big reason why the Bills are showing value this week as 5-point dogs when they should only be 3-point dogs at the most when you factor in home-field advantage as I believe these are pretty equal teams.

Buffalo is gone 3-2 since Kyle Orton became the starting quarterback. Its only losses have come to New England and Kansas City, which are two of the best teams in the AFC. It also went on the road and beat Detroit 17-14 in his first start, which is in my opinion the best team in the NFC. Orton has thrown for over 250 yards in four of his five starts this year to really pick up the offense.

That game against the Chiefs last week should have gone the Bills’ way, but they let a 13-3 lead slip away from them due to committing three turnovers and losing by a final of 13-17. They outplayed the Chiefs, outgaining them 364-278 for the game, or by 86 total yards. I believe that loss is also a contributing factor as to why this spread is at 5 instead of 3.

While Buffalo should have won last week, Miami should never have had a chance to beat Detroit. It was dominated in the box score in that game, getting outgained 228-351 by the Lions, or by 129 total yards. The only reason it was close was due to a blocked field goal by the Dolphins that they returned to the 3-yard line to set up their only touchdown of the game. That was a 10-point swing in the game at the time.

Miami is still getting a lot of respect for its three-game winning streak prior to that loss to Detroit against the likes of Chicago, Jacksonville and San Diego. Well, all three of those wins are looking worse and worse by the week as the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers are all broken right now. The only real impressive win the Dolphins have this season was back in Week 1 against the Patriots back when New England was broken as well.

Buffalo simply has Miami figured out. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Dolphins, outscoring them a combined 71-31 in the process. They have also outgained them 973 (324.3 yards/game) to 686 (228.7 yards/game), or by an average of 95.6 yards per game. Their defense clearly has this Miami offense figured out, limiting them to just 10.3 points per game in their three consecutive victories.

The Dolphins have been relying on the pass quite a bit this season in their new offense. Well, the Bills have held four of their last five opponents to less than 200 yards passing, which is no small feat in today’s game. For the season, the Bills are surrendering just 20.2 points and 319.9 yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total defense.

The Bills are allowing 96 per game and 3.7 per carry on the ground, and 224 per game and 6.2 per attempt through the air, which are both elite numbers.  This will likely be an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between two solid defensive teams, which also favors the underdog.

Buffalo is 42-24 ATS in its last 66 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. Miami is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after covering the spread in four or five of its last six games coming in. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +7

Despite their 3-5-1 start, the Carolina Panthers have plenty to look forward to the rest of the season.  That's because they play in one of the worst divisions in football, and they are actually just a half-game out of first place (Saints, 4-5).

The Panthers will be in a good frame of mind heading into this game against the Philadelphia Eagles because of it.  Also helping matters is that they have had three extra days of rest as they last played on Thursday against the Saints.

That extra rest has allowed some key players for the Panthers to get healthy.  T Byron Bell, G Amini Silatolu and G Trai Turner all missed the Saints' game with injuries.  Both Bell and Silatolu are probable to return, while Turner is still questionable.  On defense, safety Thomas DeCoud is expected back from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Saints' game.  Also, the running back corps finally has a healthy Ryan Williams and Jonathan Stewart working together.

Philadelphia has injury concerns of its own.  They are without starting quarterback Nick Foles for six weeks and defensive Captain DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the season.  Right guard Todd Herremans is also reportedly out for the season and will have surgery to repair a torn biceps.

Mark Sanchez will replace Foles, and while this is a system offense and a lot of quarterbacks would succeed in it, I just don't believe that Sanchez is as good as Foles.  He has thrown 77 touchdowns and 72 picks as a starter in the National Football League dating back to his time with the Jets.  He threw two picks in limited action against the Texans last week and cannot be trusted.

The loss of Ryans may be the biggest of them all as he was the unquestioned leader of the defense and had a team-high 45 tackles before suffering a torn right Achilles tendon on Sunday.  The Eagles rank 20th against the run and will have a hard time stopping the Panthers' ground attack, which will get a boost with the return of a couple starting linemen and a healthy backfield.

Coach Ron Rivera isn't about to give up on the Panthers.  "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," he said. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things."

This line opened at Eagles -5.5 and the betting public has been all over the favorites, betting them up to the current line of -7.  That means we have passed two key numbers of 6 and 7, and that's big when we talk about value in the NFL.  There is clearly some value here in backing the Panthers as touchdown underdogs because of this line move.

Oddsmakers realize that the betting public knows that Carolina has not played well of late, forcing them to set this line so high.  Well, a closer look at the schedule shows why as the Panthers have faced the likes of the Packers, Seahawks and Saints the last three weeks, respectively.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.

Carolina is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 yards per game or more in the second half of the season.  Te Panthers are 20-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 vs. NFC foes.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Rams +7

The Arizona Cardinals are currently the most overrated team in the NFL in my opinion due to their 7-1 start. Asking them to lay a touchdown here against a division opponent that is playing good football right now is asking too much. I’ll side with the points and the Rams in a game that will likely go right down to the wire.

The reason I believe the Cardinals are overrated is because when you look at everything outside of their record, the stats show that they are only a mediocre team in this league. In fact, the Cardinals rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 36.0 yards per game. They are only averaging 330.4 yards of offense and giving up 366.4 yards per game on defense.

Teams that get outgained by 36.0 yards per game would usually have a losing record on the season. In fact, all of the teams that rank 24th or worse in yardage differential behind the Cardinals have losing records with the exception of the 24th-place Cleveland Browns, who have also been fortunate to have the record that they do. The Cardinals have only committed six turnovers this year and have a +10 turnover differential on the season. That is simply unsustainable, and they will regress to the mean the rest of the way.

Considering St. Louis has beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in two of its last three games, it is fully capable of going into Arizona and pulling off the upset, let alone covering the 7-point spread. The Rams finally showed what their defense is capable of against the 49ers last week, limiting them to just 263 total yards while sacking Colin Kaepernick eight times. They will get after the much more immobile Carson Palmer in this one.

St. Louis has actually owned Arizona the last two years. It has won three of its last four meetings with the Cardinals, including two by exactly 14 points. It has held Arizona to an average of 14.7 points per game in the three wins, and I look for its defense to shut down this suspect Cardinals’ offense one again in their first meeting of 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 10 games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -8

After failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games coming into this one, I believe there is actually some value in backing the Seattle Seahawks this week as only 8-point home favorites against the New York Giants. They lost to both Dallas and St. Louis before beating Carolina and Oakland by a combined 10 points the last two weeks. The betting public has been killed backing them, so they are actually afraid to support them with their money again, which has kept this line lower than it should be.

However, anyone who watched that game against the Raiders last week knows that Oakland was fortunate to cover. They trailed that game 24-3 at halftime before outscoring the Seahawks 21-6 the rest of the way to get the backdoor cover. The Seahawks simply let their foot off the gas. They still held the Raiders to just 226 total yards while forcing three turnovers, and there’s no way the Raiders should have scored 24 points with those numbers.

It was the third straight dominant performance for the Seattle D, which appears to be returning to its Super Bowl form from a year ago. It held St. Louis to 272 yards, Carolina to 266 yards, and Oakland to 226 yards in its last three games, respectively. It now ranks 4th in the NFL in total defense at 304.9 yards per game. This is still one of the best teams in the NFL despite the shaky start to the season, which has been more attributed to a tough schedule than anything.

New York, on the other hand, has been one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last three weeks. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in losses to the Eagles (27-0), Cowboys (31-21) and Colts (24-40), getting outscored a combined 45-98 in the process, or by an average of 17.7 points per game. Its defense has been shredded in four straight games now.

The Giants gave up 397 yards to the Falcons, 448 yards to the Eagles, 423 yards to the Cowboys, and 443 yards to the Colts in their last four games, respectively. They have given up averages of 29.5 points and 427.8 yards per game during this stretch. They cannot stop anybody, which leaves them prone to the blowout, especially this week in a hostile environment in Seattle where the Seahawks have only lost twice over the past two seasons combined.

New York hasn’t been very good offensively since losing star receiver Victory Cruz, either. It is averaging just 15.0 points in its last three games overall. That even includes the 14 points the Giants scored against the Colts last week in garbage time in the fourth quarter. They actually trailed that game 40-10 before the Colts pulled their defensive starters, and the Giants got most of their offensive output for the entire came in the final 10 minutes. They are going to struggle offensively once again this week against a top-notch Seattle defense.

This will be a tough trip from the East Coast to the West Coast for the Giants for a late-afternoon start. Adding to that is the fact that they will be working on a short week after playing Indianapolis on Monday.  The Seahawks dominated the Giants in their 23-0 road win last season. They outgained them 327-181 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Eli Manning went 18 of 31 passing for 156 yards with a whopping five interceptions in the loss.

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Giants are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. New York is 19-43-2 ATS in its last 64 November games. Seattle is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 home games.  Roll with the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions -2.5

The Detroit Lions have shown me enough thus far in 2014 to make me believe that they are arguably the best team in the NFC. To get to 6-2 without having two of its superstars in Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for an extended period of time is simply remarkable. The Lions are certainly a sleeper to win the Super Bowl and should not be taken lightly the rest of the way.

That’s especially the case considering both Johnson and Bush had an extra week off to get healthy coming into this game. The Lions will be returning from their bye after beating the Falcons over in London, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go. Both Johnson and Bush are listed as probable, and it’s going to be fun to watch what this offense can do with these two finally healthy again.

The reason the Lions have had so much success despite mediocre production on offense is their performance on the other side of the football. The Lions are giving up just 15.7 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total defense at 290.4 yards per game. They will certainly make life miserable on Ryan Tannehill and this Miami offense this week.

While I’ll admit that the Dolphins are a very good team with impressive numbers up to this point, they are simply overvalued this week off their 37-0 win against San Diego last week. Sure, the Dolphins have won three straight games coming in against the Bears, Jaguars and Chargers, but they have been gift-wrapped those wins. They have a combined +9 turnover differential in their last three games, and that is simply unsustainable moving forward.  Miami is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better.

The Dolphins have some bad injury news of their own to deal with this week. Knowshon Moreno was already out for the season with a knee injury, but now starting running back Lamar Miller is banged up. Miller left the Week 9 win against the Chargers with a shoulder injury and did not return. He is questionable to play this week, leaving the Dolphins very thin in the backfield.

Miami is going to be forced to be a one-dimensional team this week not only because of the injuries to its running backs, but also because the Lions don’t allow an inch on the ground. They rank 2nd in the league against the run, allowing just 74.0 yards per game and 3.3 per carry. With two weeks to prepare for this new Miami offense, the Lions will be ready to slow down Tannehill and company.

Plays against road teams (MIAMI) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -2.5

It’s amazing to think that the Falcons still feel like they have a shot to win the NFC South, but such is life in this poor division. The Falcons are very much alive for the division title as they trail the New Orleans Saints by just two games for first place. They also currently hold the tiebreaker over the Saints after beating them in Week 1.

This bye week came at a great time for Atlanta, which can clear its mind of what happened in the first half of the season and focus on making a run in the second half. That starts this week with a road game against the Bucs, who are the only team in the division that has been worse than the Falcons. With games against the Panthers and Browns the next two weeks after this, the Falcons have to feel like they can make a run.

Atlanta did play well in its last game against one of the best teams in the NFL over in London. Unfortunately, it blew a 21-0 lead over Detroit and lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 22-21. That Detroit team is now 6-2 and vying for the top spot in the NFC. It was a tough loss, but one that shows what the Falcons are capable of moving forward.

The Bucs would be winless this season if not for a fluke 27-24 win at Pittsburgh back on September 28th. It has lost four in a row coming in, including losses to both the Vikings and Browns the last two weeks. Those two performances followed up a 17-48 home loss to Baltimore on October 12th. This team simply is not that good, and they certainly can’t have a very good outlook going forward right now.

While that 31-point loss to the Ravens was bad, it wasn’t even the biggest loss the Bucs have suffered this season. They were beaten even more handily by Atlanta in the first meeting of the season by a final of 56-14 on the road. The Falcons outgained the Bucs 488-217 for the game in their most impressive effort of the season. Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while the Falcons rushed for 144 yards as a team in the win.

There’s no denying that both teams are bad defensively, but the edge clearly goes to the Falcons on the other side of the football. They rank 8th in the NFL in total offense at 375.6 yards per game, while the Bucs rank 31st in total offense at 303.9 yards per game. Matt Ryan still has two of the best weapons in the NFL in Roddy White and Julio Jones as this offense has gotten back on track with these two healthy in 2014.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 85-47 (64.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after five or more consecutive losses, in November games are 43-16 (72.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season are 39-10 (79.6%) ATS since 1983. The Bucs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +10

The Tennessee Titans are showing excellent value this week as they return from their bye as 10-point underdogs to the Ravens. They will be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this one. The Ravens could be in a tough state mentally after their 23-43 loss to division rival Pittsburgh last week. This could be a hangover spot for them, and their confidence has to be shot after that defeat.

Tennessee decided to give the keys to the offense to Zach Mettenberger in its last game against Houston. While it lost that game 16-30, it wasn’t because of poor play from its quarterback this time. Mettenberger turned in the best performance of any Titans’ QB this season, completing 27 of 41 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Having two weeks to learn the offense and get accustomed to run with the first-team will do wonders for the rookie heading into this one.

This Baltimore offense has really struggled the last two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. It managed just 294 total yards against the Bengals before posting 332 total yards against the Steelers. Neither of those teams have elite defenses, so those performances were really concerning. I believe the Ravens were a bit of a fraud coming into those games because their five wins this season had come against the likes of the Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Bucs and Falcons.

The Titans are undervalued as we enter the second half of the season. They have played a tough schedule in the first half as four of their six losses have come against teams that currently have winning records and are at least two games over .500 or better. They have also failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them. That’s why oddsmakers have been forced to inflate this line Sunday.

Tennessee has played Baltimore very tough over the years. Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, and the only two that weren’t were blowout wins by the Titans. So, the Titans have not lost by more than 6 points to the Ravens in any of their last eight meetings since 2001. Dating back further, the underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this series.

Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) – off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (BALTIMORE) – after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or worse) are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Tennessee is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +4

The Jets have been the most disappointing team in the NFL up to this point. They were expected to be much better than 1-8 through their first nine games of the year, and nobody is more disappointed than Rex Ryan. They just have turned the ball over far too often this season while not getting any turnovers themselves. They have committed 18 turnovers while getting just three for a -15 differential.

Teams that have a poor turnover differential in the first half usually turn it around in the second half. Obviously, to only get three turnovers on defense, the Jets have been extremely unlucky this year. Rex Ryan is a great defensive coach, but for whatever reason, the ball is just not bouncing their way on either side of the football. I still believe this is a solid team, and the numbers certainly show that.

New York is actually outgaining opponents by an average of 4.9 yards per game. Teams with this kind of differential can usually be found with around a .500 record, or more likely a winning team than a losing one. Instead, the Jets are 1-8 on the year, and I believe they are undervalued heading into the second half of the season. They have shown no quit yet, and I don’t expect them to just pack it in.

The Jets fought tough against Kansas City last week even in a 10-24 loss. They outgained the Chiefs 364-309 for the game and arguably should have won. They kept moving the ball into Kansas City territory in the second half, but could do nothing with it as they were stopped on downs time and time again. Before that, they played tough against both Denver and New England before giving the game away against Buffalo with six turnovers.

With the worst ATS record (1-7-1) in the NFL, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jets right now. That’s why this line opened at Pittsburgh -2.5 and was bet up to -5.5 before settling at -4 in most places. That line movement alone shows that there is value in backing the Jets this week. It has passed over a couple of key numbers in 3 and 4. Whenever you get a bargain like this, it’s usually a wise move to take advantage and back the home dog when the public is all over the short road favorite.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is extremely overvalued right now due to its three straight wins and covers coming into this game. All three of those wins came at home, and while the blowout wins over the Colts and Ravens were impressive, the Steelers have no business laying 4 points on the road this week. Pittsburgh is getting outscored 17.5 to 21.2 on the road this season.

The Steelers are in a letdown spot here off a win over their biggest rival in the Ravens, and it's certainly on the mind of Ben Roethlisberger.  "They're a lot better football team than their record looks and their defense is very good," Roethlisberger said of the Jets. "Last week is over. The week before last week is over. We're facing a good defense at their place and so we need to come out and play our best football."  Easier said than done of such a big win.

Plays on underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS since 1983. This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams on extended losing streaks in the second half of the year. The Steelers are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Pittsburgh is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 14 points or more.  Take the Jets Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

20* Browns/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -6

While the Browns are certainly improved this season, they have benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the league.  This 5-3 team is clearly a fraud, and they will be exploited Thursday night against a much superior Bengals squad.  The Browns have played five home games compared to three road games. 

While the Browns have gone 4-1 at home, they are just 1-2 on the road with their only win coming at Tennessee 29-28 as they had to erase a 25-point deficit to get that win.  They also lost at Pittsburgh 27-30 after trailing in that game by 24 points.  Perhaps the game that most exemplifies the kind of team that Browns are is their 6-24 road loss to Jacksonville, which has proven to be the only win of the season thus far for the Jaguars.

Cincinnati simply does not lose at home.  It is now 12-0-1 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in all regular season home games over the last two seasons.  The Bengals have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the league.  They are outscoring teams 30.8 to 20.6 at home this season, or by an average of 10.6 points per game.  Their offense is averaging 411.6 yards per game at home this year, and now Andy Dalton has the luxury of a healthy A.J. Green back in the lineup.

Cleveland has not been able to run the football since losing center Alex Mack to a season-ending injury.  Despite playing the Jaguars, Raiders and Bucs the last three weeks, the Browns have only been able to rush for an average of 52.7 yards per game.  It's not like they are abandoning the run, either.  They have gained 158 yards on a whopping 83 carries in their last three games, an average of a mere 1.9 yards per rush.  They are one-dimensional and easy to defend now.

One fact that shows the Browns are not as good as their 5-3 record would indicate is that they rank 24th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 39.5 yards per game.  They are averaging 352.3 yards of offense while giving up 391.8 yards per game on defense.  That's really bad when you consider how easy their schedule has been.

It's also worth noting that the Browns could be without two of their biggest weapons on offense this week.  Tight end Jordan Cameron is doubtful to play with a concussion, while leading receiver Andrew Hawkins (39 receptions, 504 yards, 1 TD) is questionable with a knee injury.  For an offense already short on weapons because Josh Gordon (suspension) remains out, this is very bad news.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Cleveland and Cincinnati as well.  Indeed, the home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings.  Cincinnati beat Cleveland 41-20 at home last year, and a similar beat down can be expected in this one given how poorly the Browns have played on the road this year, and how well the Bengals have played at home.

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS after having won three out of their last four games over the past three years.  Cincinnati is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall.  The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

15* MAC Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +6.5

Asking the Akron Zips to win by a touchdown or more to cover against the defending MAC champs is too much. Sure, Bowling Green isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago, but it is still arguably the better team this season at 5-3 compared to the Zips, who are 4-4. I’d much rather take my chances with the road underdog in this one and the points.

The Falcons will have a big edge in this one in the rest department as they last played on October 18th. Meanwhile, the Zips last played on October 25th, so the Falcons have an extra week of preparation for this game under their belts. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the football field in this one and correct their mistakes from a 14-26 loss to Western Michigan last time out.

Akron has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games overall and clearly has been overvalued since an upset win against Pittsburgh. It is coming off two straight outright losses at Ohio (20-23) and at Ball State (21-35) despite being favored in both contests. This team has no business laying a touchdown tonight off its last four performances.

Bowling Green boasts an offense that has put up 31 or more points in six of its eight games this season. It is averaging 33.6 points and 454.7 yards per game on the season. James Knapke has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Johnson, completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also rushing for 157 yards and five scores. Travis Greene (636 yards, 8 TD, 5.0/carry) and Fred Coppet (366 yards, 5 TD, 5.1/carry) have been a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Akron, on the other hand, is putting up just 22.9 points and 382.7 yards per game this year. That’s why it cannot be trusted to lay points because it struggles to put points on the scoreboard itself. The Zips have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of their eight games this season. They only managed 318 yards against Miami (Ohio), 352 yards against Ohio, and 325 yards against Ball State in their last three games, respectively.

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Zips.  They have won four of those five games by 14 points or more as well while outscoring them by an average of 15.0 points per game.  As you can see, this has clearly been a one-sided series in recent years.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Colts/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The New York Giants are essentially in a must-win situation here at 3-4 on the season and two games behind both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East. They will bring their best effort to the field Monday night because of it. Also helping that will be the fact that they’ll be coming off their bye with two weeks of rest and preparation for the Colts.

The Giants obviously have not looked great in their last two games against the Eagles and Cowboys following a three-game winning streak. I believe the answer to how good this team is lies somewhere between their last two losses and their previous three blowout wins over the Texans, Redskins and Falcons all by 10 points or more.

With two weeks off coming in, the Giants will play closer to the team that blew out those three opponents than the one that lost their last two games.  Victor Cruz is a big loss, but having two weeks to prepare without him will give the Giants plenty of time to around his absence.  Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham are fine young receivers who will become more of a focal point of the offense, along with tight end Larry Donnell.

Indianapolis was exposed last week in a 34-51 road loss to Pittsburgh. It gave up a ridiculous 639 total yards to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger had a career game, completing 40-of-49 passes for over 500 yards and six touchdowns. Eli Manning, who is becoming a lot more comfortable with this west coast system in New York, should have a field day against this Colts defense as well. After all, it was the fourth time this year that the Colts had surrendered 28 or more points.

The Colts were overvalued last week as 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers on the road. They had come into that contest on a five-game winning streak and were playing very good football. It looks like the betting public is completely overlooking that loss to the Steelers and still pounding the Colts this week.

That’s why the Colts are still 3.5-point road favorites in this game when they shouldn’t even be favored at all.  This line is essentially saying that the Colts would be 6.5 to 7-point favorites on a neutral field, which is way off.  Not only is there value with the Giants, I also like the fact that this game will be played outdoors.  The weather is getting colder in New York and the Colts are used to playing inside the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Plays against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) – after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1983. Tom Coughlin is 30-13 ATS vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of New York.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Steelers UNDER 48

The Baltimore Ravens versus Pittsburgh Steelers is arguably the biggest rivalry in the NFL today.  This game is always played close to the vest as these players literally hate each other.  The end result is usually a physical, defensive battle, and I expect that to be the case in their second meeting of 2014 Sunday.

A ridiculous 14 of the last 15 meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have seen 43 or fewer combined points.  That's a 14-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 48 points.  The only exception was a 31-24 win by Pittsburgh in the 2010-11 playoffs.  Even that final of 55 combined points was a complete fluke.  The Ravens managed 24 points with only 126 yards of offense, while the Steelers scored 31 with only 263 total yards.

There is clearly a ton of value in backing the UNDER 48 in this game.  I had the under 44 the first time these teams played on September 11th and thought there was a lot of value with that number because that 44-point total was the biggest it had been in this series since 1997.  The Ravens won 26-6 for 32 combined points.  You can just imagine how my eyes lit up when I saw this 48-point total for the first time this week.

The biggest reason this number has been set so high is because both teams went over the total last week and while scoring and giving up a lot of points.  The Steelers beat the Colts 51-34 in the highest-scoring game of the week, while the Ravens lost to the Bengals 24-27.  Those performances were clearly aberrations and not the norm for these teams.  Had they not both played in shootouts, this total would have been set around the 44-point range just as it was in the first meeting.  I believe this total should be set closer to 40 points when you look at the history of this series.

Baltimore still has one of the best defenses in the league.  It is giving up just 16.4 points per game on the season, and it held the Steelers to just a pair of field goals the first time these teams played.  Baltimore did managed 26 points in that game, but the Steelers held the Ravens to a respectable 323 total yards.  

These teams just know each other so well inside and out that points are always hard to come bye.  Neither team is going to pull a fast one on the other.  There are no surprises when they get together.  Both teams bring their hard hats and slug it out, plain and simple.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oakland Raiders +14.5

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks are suffering the dreaded Super Bowl hangover this season. They aren’t playing nearly as well as they did a year ago, and as a result, they are just 3-4 against the spread this season. They have only won one game by more than 10 points this season, which was all the way back in their opener against Green Bay. Asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us this week is simply asking too much.

Seattle has lost two of its last three games while going 0-3 ATS in the process. Its only win came on a last-second touchdown at Carolina last week by a final of 13-9. The defense has given up 20 or more points in four of the last six games and is nowhere near as dominant as last year. The offense has been OK this year, but the trade of Percy Harvin and the questions surrounding Marshawn Lynch’s future are weighing heavily right now.

While the Super Bowl hangover is the real deal, one of the biggest contributing factors to that is the fact that the defending Super Bowl champ has a massive target on its back. Teams that are having bad seasons will bring their “A” game against the defending champs. I look for that to be the case this week as the Raiders would love nothing more than to pick up their first victory of the season against the Seahawks.

While that is unlikely to happen, the Raiders are certainly capable of staying within 14 points of the Seahawks this week. They have hung tough the last three weeks against the likes of San Diego, Arizona and Cleveland, losing all three of those games by 11 or fewer points. They arguably outplayed the Browns last week, but lost by a final of 13-23 despite outgaining them 387-306 for the game.

I like the progression I’ve seen from Derek Carr this year. The rookie quarterback has played very well in two of the past three games. He threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns against the Chargers three weeks ago. He threw for 328 yards and a touchdown without an interception last week against Cleveland. Carr is taking care of the football, throwing nine touchdowns against five picks on the season.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off a road loss in November games are 70-26 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – after 7 or more consecutive losses and winless on the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1983. As you can see, winless teams after Week 7 have been a very profitable bet throughout the years. There is clearly some value in backing Oakland as a 14.5-point dog this week, and we'll take advantage.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +10

I know the Jets have not been playing good, but that’s the reason why this line is as high as it is. Oddsmakers realize that the betting public is going to want nothing to do with the Jets this week because of their seven-game losing streak coming in. That’s why there is some serious line value here in taking the Jets as double-digit dogs if you can stomach backing them this week.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is overvalued due to winning four of its last five games overall. It has also covered the spread in five of its last six games, while New York has gone 1-6-1 ATS in all games this season for the worst ATS mark in the entire NFL. That has created the perfect storm here where the only choice is to play the Jets because the Chiefs are not 10 points better than them.

The Jets turned the ball over a whopping six times last week against Buffalo in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained the Bills by 32 yards in the game.  When you look at the numbers, this Jets team is not that bad as they are only getting outgained by 1.5 yards per game on the season. They actually rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 320.8 yards per game.

If the offense quits turning the ball over, the Jets will be a tough team to beat this week. That’s why head coach Rex Ryan has named Michael Vick the starter with the hope that he can take care of the ball better than Geno Smith, who has thrown seven touchdowns against 10 interceptions this year. I believe Vick will give the team the spark they need to be much more competitive this week against the Chiefs.

If you can look past the loss to Buffalo, you will find that the Jets actually played the Broncos and Patriots very tough the previous two weeks. They did lose by 14 to Denver at home, but they were only down a touchdown late before giving up a pick-six in the closing seconds. They only lost 25-27 at New England while outgaining the Patriots 423-323 in a game they should have won.  If they can play with the Broncos and Patriots, the two best teams in the AFC, they can certainly play with the Chiefs.

Plays on road teams (NY JETS) – after six or more consecutive losses, in November games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after seven or more consecutive losses against opponent after two or more consecutive wins are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.

This trend just goes to show that backing teams on long losing streaks against teams on extended winning streaks has been a very profitable move over the years. It makes sense because the line is always inflated, as is the case in this game. The Chiefs are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take the Jets Sunday.

15* Utah State/Hawaii Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Utah State Aggies have no business being favored on the road at Hawaii, which has historically been a much better home team than a road team for obvious reasons.  I'll take the points with the Warriors in this one in a game they'll likely win outright.

Utah State is living too much off reputation as being one of the better non-Power 5 conference teams in the country over the last few seasons.  That certainly isn't the case in 2014.  Sure, they are 5-3 this season, but a closer look at their five victories shows that none of them have been impressive.

Utah State has beaten the likes of Idaho State, Wake Forest, BYU, Air Force and UNLV this season.  Sure, the win over BYU stands out, but that was the same game that star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg midway through the contest.  The Cougars never recovered and were deflated for the rest of the game, and the Aggies took advantage.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Aggies have the worst situation in the country in that department.  They lost Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending injury.  Backup Darrell Garretson played well in his place before going down as well.  If that wasn't enough, third-stringer Craig Harrison i snow out with a knee injury.

That leaves fourth-string quarterback Kent Myers to take over the starting QB duties this week against Hawaii.  Myers is a freshman who was expected to redshirt this year, but now he'll be thrust into the action against Hawaii.  Make no mistake, teams down to their fourth-string QB usually aren't successful, just ask Maryland a few years back.

Hawaii may be just 2-6 this season, but I have seen signs that this team is better than that record would indicate.  It only lost to Washington (16-17) and Oregon State (30-38) at home by a combined nine points, a pair of Pac-12 opponents.  It beat Wyoming and Northern Iowa at home, while also taking a 10-0 lead against Nevada last week before eventually losing 18-26 at home.  All six of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and five by 10 points or less, so it's not like it has been really blown out in any game.

The Warriors are 51-28 at home compared to 20-38 on the road over the past 10-plus seasons.  The Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -3

The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) deserve a lot more credit than they are getting as only 3-point home favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) in this game Saturday.  I look for them to win this one going away and to cover this generous spread with ease.

Nevada has beaten a Pac-12 opponent in Washington State by a final of 24-13 at home while losing to one of the better teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 28-35 on the road as a 20-point underdog.  It has also gone on the road and beaten San Jose State (21-10), BYU (42-35) and Hawaii (26-18).

The Wolf Pack's other two losses came to very good teams as underdogs to both Boise State (46-51) and Colorado State (24-31) at home.  So, as you can see, all three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less against great opponents.  That's how close this is to being an 8-0 team.

San Diego State doesn't have an impressive win yet.  Its four victories have resulted in two home wins over Northern Arizona, UNLV and Hawaii, as well as a road win at New Mexico.  Its three losses have come against the best three teams it has faced in North Carolina, Oregon State and Fresno State all on the road.

The Aztecs have played a much easier schedule than the Wolf Pack up to this point.  They have gone 1-3 on the road this season where they are getting outscored 17.7 to 24.2 on average.  As stated before, their lone road win came at New Mexico, which is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

Cody Fajardo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he leads a Nevada offense that is putting up 29.9 points and 414.1 yards per game this season.  He is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, while also rushing for 585 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per rush.

Nevada wants revenge from a pair of close losses to San Diego State over the past two seasons.  It lost 44-51 on the road last season to the Aztecs in overtime despite gaining 564 total yards in the loss.  It also fell 38-39 at home in overtime to the Aztecs in 2012 despite outgaining them 480-349 for the game.  So, after back-to-back overtime losses, you can bet that the Wolf Pack have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time.

The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC West No-Brainer on Ole Miss -1.5

The loss by Ole Miss last week to LSU is keeping this line lower than it should be. I believe the Rebels are the better team in this one, and their home-field advantage is worth more than what is factored into this line. Oddsmakers are actually saying that Auburn is the better team if they are only giving Ole Miss credit for three points for their home field. I’m not buying it.

I would argue that Ole Miss has the best defense in the entire country. After all, it is only giving up an average of 10.5 points per game on the season. What makes that so impressive is the brutal schedule that it has faced already having to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It held all three of those teams to 20 or fewer points, and I look for it to do the same against Auburn en route to victory.

The Rebels have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. They have beaten four quality teams at home as well in Louisiana Lafayette (56-15), Memphis (24-3), Alabama (23-17) and Tennessee (34-3). If they can beat Alabama, they can certainly beat Auburn as I believe the Crimson Tide are a much better team than the Tigers.

Auburn has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year in my opinion. That has shown in recent weeks as it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It only beat Kansas State 20-14 as a 7-point road favorite, it lost at Mississippi State 23-38 as a 3-point road favorite, and it barely beat South Carolina 42-35 at home last week as an 18-point favorite.

The Rebels certainly have a massive edge in this one defensively. The Tigers have been hemorrhaging points and yards over their last two games. Indeed, they have given up averages of 36.5 points and 502.0 yards per game during this stretch. They surrendered 38 points and 469 total yards to Mississippi State, and 35 points and 535 total yards to South Carolina, which had been struggling offensively prior to last week’s game.

Ole Miss certainly wants revenge on Auburn from its 22-30 road loss last year in a game that it should have won. It actually outgained the Tigers 464-375 for the game. Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. Nick Marshall went just 11 of 17 passing for 93 yards for the Tigers.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. Hugh Freeze is 24-10 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kentucky +8

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year.  I fully believe they'll go into Columbia and give the Missouri Tigers a run for their money and likely pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.

Kentucky (5-3) is so close to becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010 that it can taste it.  A victory at Missouri would accomplish that feat following a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year.  The Wildcats almost have to be looking at this game like a must-win because their remaining schedule is difficult.  They play Georgia at home, followed by road games at Tennessee and Louisville.

Four of the Wildcats' five victories this season have come by double-digits.  They also beat South Carolina 45-38 at home in their best win of the year.  They have only been blown out once this season, which was at LSU in a game they just didn't show up.  They only lost at Florida by a final of 30-36 (OT).

Last week's performance against the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State shows that the Wildcats can play with anyone.  They were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to score late to tie that game.  Instead, the Bulldogs returned the kick for a touchdown to put the game away in a 45-31 victory. 

The Wildcats managed 504 total yards against Mississippi State and have a legitimate offense this year.  They are putting up 31.6 points and 426.5 yards per game on the season.  Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles is the future of this program.  He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,077 yards with 12 touchdowns and only four picks this season, while also rushing for 204 yards and four scores.

There's no question that the Wildcats have a massive edge in this one on offense.  The Tigers are only averaging 330.7 yards per game on the season to rank 117th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total offense.  With that kind of suspect offense, the Tigers have no business laying more than a touchdown in this game.

Kentucky is also improved on the other side of the football.  While Missouri has a slight edge on defense in giving up 350.9 yards per game, the Wildcats aren't far behind.  They are allowing just 24.7 points and 377.6 yards per game on the season.  This stop unit is good enough to keep them in the game this weekend.

I believe Missouri is way overvalued this week due to its 42-13 win at Florida two weeks ago.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but when you consider the Tigers only managed 119 yards of total offense and scored just one offensive touchdown, it really wasn't.  They can't rely on getting five non-offensive touchdowns every week like they did in that game.

That was a big reason why I faded Missouri last week as a 21.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, which is easily the worst team in the SEC by a wide margin.  The Commodores kept it close, losing by a final of 14-24 to the Tigers on the road.  Remember, Indiana upset Missouri 31-27 on the road earlier this season, and Georgia also beat Missouri 34-0 in Columbia a few weeks back.

Plays against home favorites (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +23.5

I believe this number is too big Saturday. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well and are one of the top 15 teams in the country, but I don’t believe the 23.5-point spread is warranted. I faded them last week with success and backed Rutgers in an 18-point loss as a 20-point underdog. I believe Purdue is every bit as good as Rutgers, especially with the way it has been playing of late.

The Boilermakers are in a good spot here as they’ll be returning from their bye week having two weeks to prepare for the Huskers. They nearly upset Minnesota on the road last time out, falling short by a final of 38-39 as 12-point underdogs. It was the third straight game where they played well. They beat Illinois 38-27 on the road as 10-point underdogs, and they only lost to Michigan State by 14 at home as 21.5-point dogs. They have actually covered five of their last six games against the spread, and they are still undervalued here.

This Purdue offense has really kicked it in gear of late. It has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games overall. Austin Appleby has stepped up his play at the quarterback position. He is now completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 655 yards with six touchdowns and four picks on the year, performing much better than Danny Etling did before Appleby took over the job for good. Appleby has also rushed for 164 yards and four scores. Akeem Hunt (640 yards, 6.2/carry, 5 TD) and Raheem Mostert (466 yards, 6.1/carry, 3 TD) are two of the most underrated backs in the league.

Nebraska has a big game at Wisconsin on deck in its next game, and it certainly could be looking ahead to that contest. I just don’t believe that the Cornhuskers are as good as they get credit for as they have faced a very easy schedule up to this point. Sure, they only lost by five at Michigan State (22-27), but they were down 27-3 in that game. It was decided well before they came back with those 19 points in the fourth quarter of garbage time.

The Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Purdue is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Florida/Georgia Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +11

This rivalry game is always played close to the vest. That’s why it doesn’t always matter what the team’s records are coming into it. The last four meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less. Georgia won 23-20 last year, 17-9 in 2012, and 23-20 in 2011, while Florida won 34-31 (OT) in 2010. The Gators will be out for revenge in this one after losing the last three by such small margins.

The betting public wants nothing to do with Florida after it lost to Missouri 13-42 in its last game. However, a closer look at the box score shows that there’s no way in hell the Gators should have lost that game by such a wide margin. They actually gave up just 119 total yards and one offensive touchdown to the Tigers. Missouri scored a ridiculous five non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which was a complete fluke.

Considering Florida nearly beat LSU the week before, I have no doubt that this is still a quality team despite its 3-3 record. The Gators lost to LSU 27-30, which is the same LSU team that just beat previously unbeaten Ole Miss last week. The Gators held the Tigers to just 305 total yards. They also held Missouri to the 119 yards and Tennessee to 233 yards in their last three contests.

The biggest reason Florida has a chance to keep this game close is its defense, which ranks 12th in the country in giving up just 312.8 yards per game on the season. Georgia has a solid stop unit as well, giving up 320.6 yards per game, but I have no doubt that Florida has the better overall defense in this one.

The edge does go to Georgia offensively, but it’s not like the Bulldogs are one of the top offenses in the country. They are averaging a pedestrian 437.1 yards per game to rank 49th in total offense. They have been impressive in their last two games without Todd Gurley, but they will really miss him in this game.  Also, Georgia is overvalued this week due to its five-game winning streak coming in.  It hasn't beaten a single great team during this stretch as its wins have come against Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Arkansas.

The Florida offense should be better with Treon Harris as the starter. Will Muschamp has decided to bench Jeff Driskel, who has been simply atrocious at the quarterback position up to this point.  Harris has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick in limited action. I believe this Florida defense will keep them in the ball game, while Harris will make enough plays to keep the Gators within this double-digit spread.

Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games following a two-game home stand. Georgia is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games off a double-digit road win. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulldogs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Take Florida Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina +15

This feels a lot like last year when North Carolina opened 1-5 and went 6-1 down the stretch.  After starting 2-4, the Tar Heels have won their last two games with a home win over Georgia Tech as a narrow favorite and an upset win at Virginia.  Their only loss in their last three games came at Notre Dame by a final of 43-50 as a 16.5-point underdog, which I would consider a very good loss.

This North Carolina offense will keep it in every game from here forward.  It is averaging 37.4 points and 442.5 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing (497 yards, 5 TD).

Miami doesn't have a win over a really great opponents yet.  It has beaten the likes of Florida A&M, Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech.  It has lost to the three best opponents it has faced in Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28) all by double-digits.  Asking the Hurricanes to win by more than two touchdowns to cover against the Tar Heels is simply asking too much.

The underdog has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the the last 10 meetings in this series while pulling off five outright upsets in the process.  The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points or less, and six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The road team has won each of the last three meetings.

UNC is 9-2 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two years.  North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Miami is 2-9 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +24.5

I realize that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have lost six straight games coming into this contest. However, that streak has made them way undervalued heading into this game against a much-improved Memphis squad. I certainly like their chances of staying within 24 points of the Tigers in this battle between former Conference USA rivals.

I’ve seen enough from Tulsa even in some losses to know that its is more than capable of keeping this game within 24 points. It only lost to Texas State 34-37 as a 3-point favorite, it lost to Tempe on the road 24-35 as a 17-point underdog, and it lost to South Florida 30-38 at home as a 2-point dog. I know Memphis is better than all three of those teams, but asking it to win by 25-plus points to cover is asking too much.

The one thing that gives Tulsa a chance to keep this game close is its offense, which is putting up a very impressive 433.3 yards per game this season, which is only slightly behind Memphis (451.1 YPG). In their last four games, the Golden Hurricane put up 434 yards against Texas State, 390 yards against Colorado State, 438 yards against Temple, and 488 yards against South Florida.

Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans has played pretty well this season. He is completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Zach Langer (436 yards, 4.2/carry) and James Flanders (330 yards, 4.5/carry) have provided steady play at running back. Keevan Lucas (64 receptions, 809 yards, 8 TD) is one of the most underrated receivers in the country.

Tulsa has had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis. The Golden Hurricane last played on October 18th, while the Tigers last played on October 25th. That extra week of preparation is going to be huge in this game, especially with the Tigers working on a short week already after having played on Saturday.

While I admit that the Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, they are finally getting too much respect this week.  They have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year, and the betting public has taken notice.  They have no business being a 24-point favorite against almost any FBS opponent outside of SMU.  They were 'only' a 23-point favorite against awful SMU last week, and they are getting too much respect this week after blowing them out.

Memphis is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit road win. Memphis is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off a win against a conference opponent.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2.5

The Saints are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their 3-4 record.  If you just look at their record, you automatically figure they aren't a very good team.  However, a closer look into how they have performed this year paints a completely different story.  

I made them my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday Night against the Packers, and I'm backing them again this week against the Panthers because I still believe they are undervalued as only a 2.5-point favorite against the Panthers.  I still believe this is one of the best teams in the NFL, and the numbers really show that.

Three of New Orleans' four losses this season have come by a combined six points.  That's how closer it is to being a 7-1 team right now instead of 3-4.  Plus, I don't consider road losses to Cleveland (24-26) and Detroit (23-24) by a combined three points to be bad performances.  The Saints really showed what they were capable of last week in their 44-23 beat down of the previously red-hot Packers at home.

New Orleans ranks 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 54.9 yards per game on the season.  It has done so behind an offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 445.3 yards per game, which is nearly 30 yards ahead of third place and only seven behind first-place Indianapolis.

The offense has gotten a big boost with a healthy return of Mark Ingram in the backfield recently.  All he did against the Packers was rush 24 times for 172 yards and a score.  Drew Brees completed 27 of 32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns without a pick as the Saints racked up 495 total yards in the win.

On the other side, Carolina is a much worse team than its 3-4-1 record would indicate.  It ranks 25th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 46.0 yards per game.  The Panthers rank 24th in total offense at 332.5 yards per game, and 21st in total defense at 378.5 yards per game.

This Carolina defense has given up 37 or more points in four of its last six games overall to the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay and Cincinnati.  It has given up an average of 31.2 points per game during this stretch.  You can just imagine how badly it will struggle against this second-ranked New Orleans offense on Thursday.

The Saints have been great at running the football this year, ranking seventh in the league at 133.0 yards per game and second in yards per carry (5.1).  They should have success on the ground against a Carolina defense that ranks 28th against the run (135.2 YPG) and last in yards per rush (5.2).

Sure, these teams split their regular season meetings last year with the Panthers winning 17-13 at home and the Saints winning 31-13 at home.  However, the Saints dominated each game and should have won both.  They outgained the Panthers 365-222 in their four-point road loss, and 373-239 in their 18-point home win.  So, they outgained the Panthers 738-461 in the two meetings combined as the defense led the way in stopping Cam Newton and company.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Saints Thursday.

15* Florida State/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3.5

This is a pretty generous line to back the No. 2 team in the country in the Florida State Seminoles. I know that they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last year, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule up to this point. I believe their few closes wins this season against good teams in Clemson and Notre Dame have kept this spread smaller than it should be.

Keep in mind that Clemson was playing with DeShaun Watson at quarterback while FSU was playing without Jameis Winston when it beat the Tigers in overtime earlier this year. Also, the 31-27 win over Notre Dame is nothing to laugh about as the Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country and currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.

Louisville also lost a close one to Clemson by a final of 17-23. However, Watson went down with an injury early in that game, and the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. Clemson is a much inferior offensive team with Cole Stoudt at quarterback rather than Watson. So, you can’t really even compare those games. The Cardinals haven’t really beaten a great team yet as their six wins have come against Miami, Murray State, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse and NC State.

Florida State is putting up 37.9 pints and 442.7 yards per game on the season. Jameis Winston is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks on the year. I don’t believe Louisville has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Seminoles in this one. It is averaging 30.9 points and 370.4 yards per game on the season, averaging a mere 5.0 yards per play. It hasn’t face very many good defenses, either, and the ones it did it lost to in Virginia and Clemson.

The Seminoles are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Louisville is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following three straight conference games. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Florida State Thursday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

The Cowboys have been the biggest surprise in the NFL up to this point.  Nobody expected this team to start 6-1.  DeMarco Murray broke the NFL record for consecutive 100-yard rushing games to open the season.  He is running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  As a result, Tony Romo has been much more efficient in the passing game.  The defense has even been better than expected.

With the world well aware of the Cowboys' success this year, oddsmakers have been forced to inflate their line this week against the Redskins.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  While they are certainly one of the better teams in the league, there are a few factors that show they aren't as good as their record would indicate.

The offense is dominant, and as a result, the defense has hardly seen the field.  The Cowboys are the third-best team in the league in terms of time of possession.  If the defense were on the field more often, that suspect unit would be giving up a lot more yards and points.  In fact, they haven't been much better on that side of the ball compared to last season, when they ranked last in the league in total defense.

Dallas gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2013 and it is giving up 6.1 yards per play in 2014.  It gave up 7.0 yards per passing attempt last year, and it is giving up 6.8 yards per attempt this year.  It allowed 4.7 yards per carry last year, and it is giving up 4.9 yards per rush in 2014.  It forced 1.75 turnovers per game last season, and it is getting 1.71 turnovers per game this season.

The key to stopping Dallas is making sure it does not keep the football for most of the game.  Washington has the power to do that behind a defense that ranks 12th in the league against the run in giving up 103.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  In fact, a closer look at the numbers shows that Washington is a much better team overall than its 2-5 record would indicate.

The Redskins rank an incredible 3rd in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 67.5 yards per game.  They trail only the Colts and Broncos in that category, which shows that they are right up there with two of the top teams in the NFL.  Furthermore, the Redskins rank 7th in the league in total defense (321.9 yards/game) and 5th in total offense (389.4 yards/game).  This team is much better than it is getting credit for as a 10-point underdog to the Cowboys.

I realize Colt McCoy is expected to start this game for Washington, but I'm not too concerned about it because Kirk Cousins was a turnover machine and can't be trusted.  McCoy impressed in leading the Redskins to a 19-17 victory over the Titans last week in a game they should have won by more.  They outgained the Titans by 115 yards in the game.  McCoy finished 11 of 12 passing for 128 yards and a touchdown after replacing Cousins.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough over the past few seasons.  In fact, it is a sensational 7-1 (88%) ATS against the Cowboys in the last eight meetings in this series.  It has only lost to the Cowboys by more than 3 points once during this stretch.  That was a 16-31 loss at Dallas last year when the Redskins simply gave that game away.  They actually outgained the Cowboys 433-213 for the game, but they turned the ball over twice and gave up an 86-yard punt return for a score.

The underdog is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Dallas.  The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games.  Jason Garrett is 0-6 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  Garrett is 11-23 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet the Redskins Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -1

The Saints clearly have not gotten off to the start they wanted to this season.  A lot of that has had to do with the scheduling as they have played four road games compared to two home games.  They are 0-4 on the road and 2-0 at home. 

Another reason has to do with the fact that they haven't been able to win close games as three of their losses have come by a combined six points.  The good news is that they are only one game back in the weak NFC South division, so all is not lost yet.  I still believe this team will win the division and be a factor in the playoffs.

Look for the Saints to come out highly motivated for a win Sunday as they host the Green Bay Packers and play inside the friendly confines of the Superdome.  I have no doubt that the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, and that's evident in the statistics. 

They rank 2nd in the league in total offense at 437.0 yards per game, and while their defense has taken a step back this year, they are still outgaining opponents by an average of 63.3 yards per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.  The defense has given up an average of 329.0 yards per game the last two weeks and will only get better as the season progresses.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home.  They are a combined 10-0 at home over the past two seasons.  Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 17-1-1 ATS at home dating back to 2011-12.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Saints as this short of a home favorite.  We'll take advantage this week.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams with the only exception being New Orleans' 34-27 win at Lambeau Field back in 2006.  Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams.

While the Saints are better than their record, there's no question the Packers aren't as good as their 5-2 record would indicate.  They rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 325.4 yards per game and 19th in total defense at 362.7 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 37.3 yards per game, which is the 10th-worst mark in the NFL.

Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this season compared to 3-0 at home.  It has really been outplayed on the road this season despite the 2-2 record.  It is only gaining 301.2 yards per game on offense while giving up 399.0 yards per game on defense.

As you can see, it is getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game away from home this year.  It needed a last-second touchdown to beat Miami, and it was outgained by the Bears by 140 total yards in its 38-17 victory.  It also lost to the Seahawks by 20 and the Lions by 12 in its first two road games.

The Packers are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers here because they have won and covered in four consecutive games.  Keep in mind that this stretch of games has featured wins over the Bears, Vikings, Dolphins and Panthers, and none of those teams have better than a .500 record. 

The betting public has been all over the Packers, too.  They'll continue to ride them because they have been good to them, which is why this is only a 1-point spread as the books know the public will be on Green Bay again, so they have over-adjusted the line.  That has provided us with some serious line value here on the Saints.

Payton is 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 14-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games overall.  The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +7

The Cleveland Browns have no business being this heavily favored against any team in the league. I said that last week when I backed the Jaguars as 6-point home underdogs, and they came through and won outright 24-6 over the Browns. I’m saying it again this week. Even though it’s the winless Raiders, the Browns are clearly overvalued here. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown to beat us is asking too much.

One big reason why Cleveland could be in line for a tough stretch is that it recently lost center Alex Mack to a season-ending leg injury. He was the heart and soul of this offense, and even quarterback Brian Hoyer said that you don’t replace a guy like Mack heading into the Jacksonville game. Center is the most underrated position in the NFL because he calls out all of the blocking assignments.

Cleveland had been one of the best rushing teams in football prior to Mack going down with an injury. His loss was felt against the Jaguars as the Browns managed a measly 69 rushing yards on 30 carries for an average of 2.3 yards per attempt. Even Brian Hoyer had an awful game, going just 16-of-41 passing for 215 yards with an interception. The Browns were held to 266 total yards, and head coach Mike Pettine admitted that he contemplated replacing Hoyer with Johnny Manziel against the Jaguars last week.

Cleveland has played in a bunch of close games this year as four of its six games have been decided by a field goal or less. It is going to have a hard time blowing out teams due to a defense that has not been very good at all this year. The Browns are giving up 23.2 points and 394.8 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.

The Browns rank last in the league against the run, giving up a whopping 155.5 yards per game on the ground.  The Raiders averaged the fewest rushing yards (69.3 RYPG) this season, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've been playing from behind.  Look for head coach Tony Sparano to be sure that Darren McFadden gets more carries in this one.  He rushed for 89 yards on 14 attempts against San Diego and 48 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown against Arizona the past two weeks.  He just needs more touches and should get them this week.

I’m a realist, and I realize that Oakland is probably the worst team in the league, but I have been impressed with Derek Carr’s development as the season has gone on. He is more than capable of putting up solid numbers against this soft Cleveland defense. He had his best game against the Chargers two weeks ago when he threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns. He and the rest of these Raiders are highly motivated to pick up their first win of the season, and this is one of their best chances yet to do so.

"Nobody is handed the trophy at the end of six weeks," Sparano said. "In my mind, we have 10 games to go right now. I've seen teams get into this tournament with eight wins, with nine wins, whatever the case is.

"That isn't really our concern right now. Our concern is getting one win and winning the next game. That really has to be our focus, because if we look at the picture down the road right now, the parade might pass us by."

"We're building," defensive end Benson Mayowa said. "Every week we come in and we're building; we're getting close. We just have to get a W, and that's what we're going to do."

The Browns are 0-7 ATS versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the past two seasons. Oakland is a very profitable 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Raiders are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games following a non-conference game. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

Note - I recommend buying the Raiders to +7 if you have the option but would still take them at +6 or better if you don't.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Seahawks -5

I just cannot foresee the defending Super Bowl champs losing three straight games. They were dealt a big distraction last week heading into their showdown with St. Louis as Percy Harvin was traded late in the week to the Jets. It caught most of the Seattle players by surprise as they said so afterwards. Even wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who allegedly had a run-in with Harvin, was caught off guard by it. He said it was certainly a distraction, but also that there was no excuse for the 26-28 loss to the Rams.

St. Louis was aided by an 90-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 75-yard kickoff return, and a fake punt in the fourth quarter as special teams was the difference in the game. The Seahawks actually dominated the box score and should have won. They outgained the Rams by 191 total yards for the game as they racked up 463 yards of offense in their best output of the season on that side of the ball.

The offense has been carrying the load this season in averaging 26.5 points and 357.0 yards per game.  You can bet the defense is going to put this game on their shoulders after giving up an average of 29.0 points per game the past two weeks in losses to the Cowboys and Rams. I still believe this is one of the best stop units in the league, and I fully expect that to be on display against the Panthers, just as it was last year.

Seattle beat Carolina 12-7 on the road last season in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Seahawks outgained the Panthers 370-253 for the game, or by 117 total yards. Russell Wilson went 25 of 33 passing for 320 yards and a touchdown in the win, while the defense limited Cam Newton to 16 of 23 passing for 125 yards and a score.

The Panthers are clearly down this season. They have won just one of their last five games overall while giving up an average of 34.8 points per game in the process. They have allowed 37 or more points in four of their last five games as well. They currently rank 29th in the league in scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and 29th in total defense (388.3 YPG). They clearly miss suspended DE Greg Hardy as well as three of four starters from their secondary who departed this offseason.

Offensively, Cam Newton is simply being asked to do too much.  The Panthers have been decimated by injuries at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert out.  Now, the offensive line is a mess.  Rookie guard Trai Turner is out with a sprained knee and ankle, while tackle Byron Bell (elbow) and guard Amini Silatolu (calf) are listed as questionable.

Seattle is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 versus terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game. The Seahawks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games overall. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Seahawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after giving up more than 30 points in their previous game. Pete Carroll is 8-0 ATS after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Seattle.  Carroll is 16-4 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Seahawks.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver -8.5

I wrote last week about how San Diego had faced the easiest schedule in the league, which was a big reason for its 5-1 start to the season. I really do not believe this team is as good as its record would indicate, and that it will be overmatched against the best team in the NFL in the Broncos in this one.

Perhaps the biggest reason I’m taking Denver Thursday is that San Diego is really banged up right now. It was already without a couple starters on defense in Melvin Ingram and Manti Te’o. Then, last week the Chargers were missing Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder), their top two cornerbacks.

Flowers, who has played at a Pro Bowl level this season, has been ruled out due to his concussion suffered against Kansas City on Sunday.  Verrett, who is in the early discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, is listed as questionable.  As of Wednesday, a source close to the situation viewed Verrett as a longshot to play due to his shoulder injury.  The Chargers will have to turn to their two starters from last year in Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright, who were two of the least effective corners in the league.

That’s bad news for San Diego, which will be up against the record-setting Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos are averaging 31.5 points per game, 299 passing yards per game, and 8.5 yards per attempt. Manning is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,848 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. He has put up those numbers against a very tough schedule and some of the best defenses in the league in the likes of the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets & 49ers.

San Diego has put up good numbers defensively this year, but that has a lot more to do with the schedule than actually being a good defense. Sure, it opened with Arizona and Seattle, but then played Buffalo, Jacksonville, New York (Jets), Oakland and Kansas City the next five weeks. I wouldn’t consider any of those teams to be elite offensively. This defense is likely to be in for a rude awakening this week, especially with all of the injuries.

Denver’s defense did not perform all that great in the first three weeks of the season. However, this revamped stop unit has really picked it up of late. The Broncos have won their last three games all by 14 points or more largely due to the defense. They allowed 20 points and 215 total yards in a 21-point win over Arizona, 17 points and 204 total yards in a 14-point win over the Jets, and 17 points and 310 total yards in a 25-point win over the 49ers.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league in total defense, giving up just 316.8 yards per game.  They also rank 4th in total offense at 394.0 yards per game.  That puts them at 2nd in the league in yardage differential as they are outgaining teams by a whopping 77.2 yards per game.  With the schedule they have faced, this is easily the best team in the NFL.

Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. The Broncos are 49-28 ATS in their last 77 home games against a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday.

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

20* Texans/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +3

While these teams share identical 3-3 records this season, I have been much more impressed with the Texans and feel like they are the stronger team in 2014. They did lose the last two weeks, but even in the losses they proved they could play with two of the best teams in the league. Dallas needed overtime to beat the Texans 20-17. Indianapolis needed a late stop defensively to preserve its 33-28 win.  Dallas is 6-1, while Indy is 5-2 this season.

Pittsburgh’s three wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville. It only beat the Browns and Jaguars by a combined 11 points, so those wins weren’t that impressive. It’s the losses that really show how down the Steelers are this year. They lost to the Ravens by 20 and the Browns by 21. They also fell at home to the Buccaneers 24-27. The Bucs and Jaguars were a combined 1-18 in their last 19 games overall heading into this week, and the Steelers only outscored those two awful teams 41-36.

The Steelers have given up 157-plus rushing yards in three different games this season. That’s bad news for their defense because they will be up against one of the better rushing attacks in the league. The Texans are averaging 128 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this year. Arian Foster is showing that he is still one of the elite backs in the NFL. He has rushed for 513 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Foster even missed one game due to injury, which was the only poor performance by the Texans this season in a 17-30 loss to the Giants.

I know their last meeting was a few years ago, but the Texans did beat the Steelers 17-10 at home. That was a much better Pittsburgh defense than the one it is putting on the field in 2014. Foster had a huge day on the ground in that game, rushing for 155 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The Texans rushed for 180 as a team. Their defense also limited the Steelers to just 296 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger went 16 of 30 passing for 206 yards with a pick.

Houston's J.J. Watt is an a absolute beast.  He leads the NFL with 20 hits on quarterbacks this season, and he has also scored three touchdowns with two on defense and one on offense.  Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 17 times entering Week 7 for the second-highest total in the NFL.  Look for Watt and company to get after him and to force some turnovers in this one.  It’s also worth noting that the Texans will have three more days than the Steelers to prepare for this game after playing the Colts last Thursday.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) – after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 64-30 (68.1%) ATS since 1983. Houston is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 400 or more total yards per game in its last three games. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Monday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas City Chiefs +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) are looking at this game like a must-win because they cannot afford to fall any further behind in the AFC West standings with both the Broncos and Chargers only having one loss apiece. They will certainly be putting their best foot forward this week off their bye last week. The Chargers could actually afford a loss at this point and won’t be playing with the same sense of urgency as the Chiefs in this one because of their fast start to the season.

I really like what I’ve seen from this Kansas City team ever since its season-opening loss to the Titans. It went into Denver and gave Peyton Manning and company a run for their money in a 17-24 loss as a 13-point underdog. It went into Miami and came away with a 34-15 win as a 6-point dog. It thumped New England 41-14 on Monday Night Football as a 3-point dog. Then, it had its chances against San Francisco, but ultimately fell 17-22 on the road as a 4-point dog.

So, as you can see, the Chiefs have played three of their last four games on the road with all four coming against some of the premier teams in the league, especially the Broncos, Patriots and 49ers. They have hung right with or dominated each of their last four opponents. They are certainly capable of going into San Diego and coming away with a win in this one as well.

The Chargers are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-1 start to the season, which has also included a 5-1 ATS record. I successfully faded the Chargers last week by backing the Raiders as 7.5-point home underdogs in a 31-28 victory for San Diego. The Raiders were in that game the whole way, and just like the Chiefs, they were coming off their bye week. That makes this a very tough spot for San Diego as it has to face two straight teams coming off their bye weeks.

Not only does that make this a tough spot for the Chargers with the Chiefs coming off the bye, that may not even be the biggest situation factor here.  Perhaps the bigger factor is the fact that San Diego plays Denver on Thursday.  Even though this game against the Chiefs is a division game, I have no doubt the Chargers will be looking ahead to that game against the Broncos, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They simply will not be able to bring the kind of focus and effort to the field this week it takes to put away the pesky Chiefs.

The Chargers aren't as good as they're perceived to be this year, either.  They have faced the easiest schedule in the league thus far as their six opponents up to this point have a combined 33% winning percentage on the season.  Also, they have been lucky as they're the only team in the NFL to have not lost a fumble.  They have fumbled six times and recovered all six.

The Chiefs have only failed to cover the spread in one of their last 12 road games.  Coach Andy Reid has won 63% of his road games for his career.  Also, Reid has won 16 of his last 18 games as a head coach off a bye, including playoffs.

San Diego did win both meetings with Kansas City last year, but both were by exactly a field goal, and there’s a good chance this one is decided by a field goal as well. Also, the Chiefs even rested their starters in Week 17 last year, yet nearly beat the Chargers as 15.5-point underdogs. San Diego needed overtime to escape with a 27-24 home victory and punch its ticket into the playoffs. You can bet the Chiefs will be out for revenge in this one after getting swept in the season series by a combined six points last year.

Plays against any team (SAN DIEGO) – after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 140-85 (62.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Kansas City is 42-25 ATS in its last 67 road games following one or more consecutive losses. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -3

After opening the season with losses against two of the best teams in the league in Denver and Philadelphia by a combined 10 points, there has been nobody playing better football than the Colts over the last four weeks. They have outscored the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens and Texans a combined 138-75 while going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

That doesn’t even tell the entire story. Not only are the Colts winning, they are absolutely dominating the box score. They ougained the Jaguars by 185 yards, the Titans by 237 yards, the Ravens by 145 yards, and the Texans by 124 yards. So, as you can see, they have outgained their last four opponents by a total of 691 yards. They even outgained the Broncos by 47 yards in their Week 1 loss on the road.

I have lost more money going against the Colts over the past few seasons than any other team in the NFL.  That's because they were always winning close games despite getting outgained on a regular basis.  Now, I know the Colts are the real deal because they rank 1st in the league in yardage differential.  They are outgaining opponents by 103.5 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 26 yards per game more than second place.

Andrew Luck is playing better than any quarterback in the league this season. He is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,987 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 93 yards and two scores. His ability to move within the pocket with his underrated feet make him very tough for opposing pass rushers to bring down. He’s so great at extending plays and making them when needed, but he’s also tremendous within the pocket.

Cincinnati was one of the most overrated teams in the league after its 3-0 start to the season. That showed in a 17-43 loss in New England in Week 5. It also showed last week as the Bengals only managed to tie the Panthers 37-37 at home despite being a 7-point favorite.  The Bengals had won 11 straight regular season home games prior to that tie, so they have clearly done most of their damage over the last few years at home and not on the road.

As you can see, their defense has given up a combined 80 points over the past two weeks.  They rank 28th in the league in total defense this year, giving up 398.8 yards per game on the season.  That's not good news for the Bengals because they will be up against a Colts offense that ranks 1st in the league in total offense at 444.0 yards per game.

Also, Cincinnati's offense was without star receiver A.J. Green last week, and he is doubtful to play with a toe injury this week. While he isn’t the best receiver in the league, he is more important to this Cincinnati offense than any other receiver in the NFL in my opinion. He just requires so much attention for opposing defenses.  Green has averaged 104.7 receiving yards per game in the last three full games he's played.  That kind of production is simply irreplaceable.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The Colts are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Bengals.  It's also important to note that the Colts will have three extra days of rest and preparation than the Bengals because they played last Thursday against Houston.  Meanwhile, the Bengals could be a little more fatigued than normal because they played a full five quarters last week in their overtime game against Carolina.

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in home games against a team with a winning record over the last three years. The Colts are 12-1 ATS in a home games where the total is 45.5 or more over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing Indianapolis.  Take the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

It’s unfathomable that the Cleveland Browns are actually this big of a road favorite against anyone in the NFL. Sure, they are a vastly improved team this season with their 3-2 start, but they are getting too much respect here against the Jaguars. Asking them to go on the road and win by a touchdown or more to beat us is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Browns, who are coming off their 31-10 beat down of the Steelers last week. That win had to feel good considering they 'improved' to 4-25 in their last 29 meetings with the Steelers in that AFC North rivalry. It will be hard for a team like the Browns to go on the road and put forth the kind of effort they did against the Steelers now that they’ll be facing a winless team.  This is clearly a tough spot for them because they are not used to success.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are very hungry for that first victory. They have been inching closer to it each of the last three weeks, losing by 19 on the road to the Chargers, by 8 at home to the Steelers, and by 2 last week on the road against the Titans. The reason they have been more competitive is the insertion of Blake Bortles as the starting quarterback.

Jacksonville played by far its best game of the season last week at Tennessee and arguably should have won. It outgained the Titans by 89 total yards for the game as the offense amassed a season-high 379 yards, and the defense limited the Titans to season-low 290 yards.

Bortles went 32-of-46 passing for 336 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 38 yards on five carries in his best game yet as a pro.  Cecil Shorts is back healthy and had a career-high 10 catches for 103 yards.  Bortles has completed 67.8 percent of his passes this year, which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Four of Cleveland’s five games this season have been decided by 3 points or less, and there’s a good chance this one will go right down to the wire as well. The Browns were fortunate to be able to come back from a 28-3 deficit to beat Tennessee 29-28 in their last road game. This is a team that has been dreadful on the road over the past decade and rarely wins away from home.

The Browns have been winning in spite of their defense, which has been atrocious this season.  They are giving up 23.0 points and 406.6 yards per game to rank 29th in the league in total defense.  Bortles figures to have another big day through the air in this one as the Jaguars will likely put forth their best offensive output of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.

The Cleveland offense has been surprisingly good, especially running the football.  It is averaging 146 yards per game on the ground.  However, center Alex Mack, the team's best and most important lineman, went down with a likely season-ending broken leg.  The center is the most underrated position in all of football.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer said it best when referring to Mack. "You just don't replace that guy," Hoyer said.  Plus, the Jacksonville run defense has been trending in the right direction.  The Jaguars have only allowed an average of only 74.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry over their last three games.  The Browns haven't proven they can really light it up through the air this season to take advantage of Jacksonville's biggest weakness, which is its secondary.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) – a horrible offensive team (scoring less than 14 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Baylor/WVU Big 12 No-Brainer on Baylor -7.5

I faded Baylor (6-0) with success last week in a rare ATS loss for the Bears. They beat TCU but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Off that rare loss against the spread, I believe the Bears are now undervalued in this one as only 7.5-point favorites. This is a team that went 8-4 ATS in 2011, 9-4 ATS in 2012 and 9-4 ATS in 2013. They have opened with a 4-1-1 ATS mark in 2014 to continue crushing the spread on a regular basis.

TCU is a much better team than it gets credit for, so that win over the Horned Frogs was nothing to frown about. The Bears are still the best team in the Big 12, and I would say that TCU is the second-best team. Baylor just scores at will and cannot be stopped. Putting up 61 points on a very good TCU defense is no small accomplishment. The Bears arguably should have won by more because they outgained TCU 782-485 for the game.

This Baylor offense tops the country in scoring (52.7) and yards per game (622.5) this season. Even after a poor defensive performance last week, the Bears are only giving up 20.0 points and 303.5 yards per game. There’s no question they have a better defense than WVU, which is giving up 27.2 points and 393.0 yards per game. I look for the difference in this game to be the Bears getting a few more stops than the Mountaineers to pick up the win and cover.

I just haven’t been impressed with WVU over the last few weeks. They lost to Oklahoma 33-45 at home and gave up 508 total yards in defeat. They also needed a big comeback to beat a terrible Texas Tech team 37-34 while giving up 565 total yards. If that’s the kind of effort their defense is going to give against those two teams, you can just imagine what this Baylor offense is going to do against that WVU defense.

Last year, Baylor beat West Virginia 73-42 in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bears outgained the Mountaineers 875-399 for the game, more than doubling their yardage output. Bryce Petty left this game early because of the blowout after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears rushed for a ridiculous 479 yards while averaging 8.0 per carry in the win.

Baylor is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS versus good rushing defenses that give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three seasons. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Bears.  Take Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +14

The Purdue Boilermakers (3-4) have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They have already tripled their win total from a year ago and have even been impressive in some of their losses.  Their most impressive performance was a 38-27 win at Illinois to pick up their first conference victory since 2012.

However, I was even impressed with how Purdue hung around against teams like Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan State, all of which are better teams than Minnesota.  They only lost 14-30 to Notre Dame as 30-point underdogs, 10-24 to Iowa after blowing a 10-0 lead, and 31-45 to Michigan State last week as 21.5-point underdogs.  They even racked up 340 total yards against a very good Spartan defense.

Minnesota (5-1) is overvalued right now due to its record this season.  It has played a very soft schedule thus far, which is the biggest reason for the record.  The 7-30 road loss to TCU is the exception, and it was the most telling performance about this team. 

Sure, the Gophers won 30-14 at Michigan, but everyone is beating the Wolverines.  The Gophers also picked up a nice 24-17 win over Northwestern last week, but a closer look at the box score shows they should have lost that game.  They only gained 274 yards of total offense and gave up 393 yards, getting outgained by the Wildcats by 119 yards for the game.

I have really liked what I've seen from this Purdue offense of late.  It has actually scored 35-plus points in three of its last four games, including the 38 on Illinois and the 31 on Michigan State.  Akeem Hunt rushed for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Spartans on only 12 carries.  Hunt is one of the more underrated backs in the country as he has 542 yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 6.2 per carry.

This Minnesota offense simply isn't explosive enough to put away a team like Purdue.  The Gophers are only averaging 27.0 points and 331.8 yards per game this season to rank 116th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense.  That's really bad when you consider they have played a very suspect schedule to this point.

The Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.  Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Boilermakers are 13-6 SU & 12-6-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Minnesota.  Take Purdue Saturday.

20* Temple/Houston AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple +8

The Temple Owls (4-1) are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They have already doubled their win total from a year ago with their only loss coming to a very good Navy team by a final of 24-31. Their two most impressive performances of the season came in their two road games.

They went on the road and beat Vanderbilt 37-7 despite being an 8.5-point underdog in that game. They also went to Connecticut and came away with a 36-10 win as a 6-point favorite. Sure, Vanderbilt and UConn are not great teams, but the way the Owls beat them down speaks volumes about what they are capable of.

The Owls have been impressive on both sides of the football. They are averaging 38.2 points per game and giving up just 14.4 points per game on the season. They have been a much more competitive team ever since P.J. Walker took over as starting quarterback over the final seven games last year. Walker is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,099 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this year, while also rushing for 92 yards and three scores.

Sure, Houston beat Temple 22-13 on the road last year and probably should have won by more due to the yardage differential, but that was an early-season game. It was prior to Walker taking over as the starting quarterback. With Walker, the Owls are more than capable of going into Houston and coming away with a victory in this one.

The Cougars have not been impressive at all this season. They already have three losses on the year, including a 7-27 home loss to a UTSA team that is not that good in the opener. They are getting a lot of respect for their 28-24 win at Memphis last week, which has inflated this line up to 8 when it should be right around a field goal, providing some value with a road underdog Owls in this one.

While Temple has scored 35 or more points in four of its five games this season, Houston has been held to 28 or fewer points in four of its five games. It lacks the offensive firepower to put away Temple in this one. That’s especially the case considering how well the Owls have played defensively this year in giving up just 326.6 yards per game. The Cougars are only averaging 371.5 yards per game on offense against defenses that are giving up an average of 409 yards per game.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The Owls are 9-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog. Temple is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Temple Friday.

15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the New England Patriots and New York Jets in this AFC East showdown.  This has been a very high-scoring series in recent years and I look for that to continue in their first meeting of 2014.

Indeed, the OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Patriots and Jets.  They have combined to score 48 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 51 or more in five of the last six.

The Patriots are back. They went to a no-huddle, up-tempo offense against the Bengals and have put together their two most complete performances of the season as a result. They beat the Bengals 43-17 while putting up 505 yards of total offense. Then last week, they topped the Bills 37-22 while racking up 396 yards.

Tom Brady has been much more efficient in the new-look offense. He completed 23 of 35 passes for 292 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Bengals. Brady went 27 of 37 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Bills last week. Those are two of the better defenses in the league, and Brady was able to do whatever he wanted to against them.

The Patriots have two key injuries that will also favor the over.  They lost running back Steven Ridley for the season, so they will certainly be putting the ball in the air a lot in this one.  They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Jarrod Mayo to a season-ending injury last week.  The Jets should have success running the football because of it.

New England is 6-0 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 6-0 to the OVER against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over the last three years.  New England is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  New England is 12-1 to the OVER after having won two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.  These five trends combine for a 38-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.