15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3

No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL.  But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week.  They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team.  And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.

The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week.  Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL.  And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.

Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week.  The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs.  They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.

Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson.  All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game.  And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.

You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens.  Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers.  The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes.  The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3

I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*.  I apologize to my clients for that one.  I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos.  And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.

It didn’t matter.  The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss.  That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites.  And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.

So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games.  Their offense is way broken.  Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him.  He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job.  It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better.  Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.

The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year.  A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week.  That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.

The Bills are the real deal this season.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season.  They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division.  They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.

Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading.  They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them.  But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.

Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game.  Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far.  He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses.  They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game.  The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses.  New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +15

It looks like the betting public is back on the Oklahoma bandwagon after back-to-back wins and covers over Texas in overtime and TCU 33-14.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Sooners now laying more than two touchdowns on the road to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has played very well at home in Big 12 play this year.  The Red Raiders held a 15-point lead in the final minutes against Texas but found a way to lost 56-63 in overtime.  But they redeemed themselves last week beating an underrated West Virginia team 34-27 as 2.5-point home dogs.  And that gives them the confidence to hang with Oklahoma here.

Texas Tech can match Oklahoma score for score.  You just can’t trust this Oklahoma team to lay these kinds of numbers with how terrible their defense is.  They are giving up 33.5 points per game in conference play and even allowed 38 points to Kansas State and 37 to Iowa State.

Texas Tech wants revenge after eight straight losses to the Sooners in this series.  And the last three in Lubbock have been very tight with the Sooners winning by 5, 7 and 12 points.  I think we see more of the same here with this game decided by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. teams that allow 8 or more passing yards per attempt.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS vs. teams that allow a 62% completion percentage or worse as the coach of the Sooners.  Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Red Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -3.5

This is the classic unranked team favored over the ranked team situation.  Since 2017, unranked teams favored by 4 points or fewer against ranked teams have gone 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS.  I don’t play every one of these situations, but this one makes sense for the following reasons.

Kansas State is 4-1 despite getting outgained in four of their five games this season.  And the only team they outgained was Kansas, and that was only by 61 yards last week in a very misleading final score.  The Wildcats are getting outgained by 56.2 yards per game on the season.

Unlike Kansas State, West Virginia is much better than its 3-2 record would indicate.  The Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents this season.  They are outgunning teams by nearly 200 yards per game.  They are averaging 460.8 yards per game on offense and giving up just 261.8 yards per game on defense.  They are probably the single-most underrated team in the Big 12 this season.

Kansas State was able to get past TCU and Kansas without starting QB Skyler Thompson. But this is the game where his loss finally shows up.  New starter Will Howard has been able to manage the game without him, but he’s going to have to step up and make more plays if the Wildcats are to win this week.  And I just don’t think he has it in him.  He completed just 42.1% of his passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against TCU.

West Virginia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Mountaineers win and win big here to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the season.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/Cincinnati OVER 55

The oddsmakers have set this total too low for Saturday between Memphis and Cincinnati in a huge AAC showdown.  The weather looks like perfect scoring conditions with a temperature in the 50s, sunny and only 5-10 MPH winds.  This game should sail OVER the total Saturday.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team.  They score 38.8 points per game and put up 569.8 yards per game this season.  They give up 33.0 points per game and 567.8 yards per game on the year.  Their style will lead Cincinnati to have to try and get in a shootout with them.

The Bearcats clearly have a great defense and that showed last week in their 42-13 win at SMU.  But that was an SMU team that just lost their top receiver to injury.  Memphis has an offense that is just loaded with talent everywhere and will find a way to hang a big number on this Cincinnati defense.  And the Bearcats can keep pace as they are averaging 37.3 points per game on the season.

The OVER is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia State +3

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 5-0 this season and ranked No. 20 in the country.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on this unbeaten team as they lose their first game of the season against a very underrated Georgia State squad Saturday.

Coastal Carolina lost starting QB Grant McCall to an injury last week and were still able to beat Georgia Southern.  McCall is doubtful this week, and I don’t give them much of a chance to beat Georgia State without him.  McCall has an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 184 yards and three scores.  It’s a huge loss to say the least even though it didn’t matter last week because Georgia Southern wasn’t preparing for backup Fred Payton.  Now with a week of game film on Payton, Georgia State will be prepared.

Georgia State is very close to being 4-0 this season.  They lost to Louisiana-Lafayette in overtime 31-34.  They crushed East Carolina 49-29 as a 2-point dog.  They lost to Arkansas State 52-59 on the road in a game they deserved to win.  And they went on the road and upset Troy 36-34 as 1.5-point dogs.  The markets have mis-priced this team all season as they have been a dog in all four games against a brutal schedule.

Coastal Carolina is a team that prefers to run the football in averaging 44 rushing attempts for 188 yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.  Well, Georgia State has been the best team in the Sun Belt against the run, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.

I just like Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott who has gotten this team to a bowl game in two of his three seasons on the job.  And this is his best team yet with 16 returning starters.  The offense has great balance with 237 rushing yards per game and 229 passing yards per game.  New starting QB Cornelius Brown is a great dual-threat with 917 passing yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio to go with 186 rushing yards and four scores.

Plays on home teams (Georgia State) - a great rushing team averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush against a good rushing team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +32

Note: I still like Boston College as a 20* play at the new opening line of +24 since the news that Trevor Lawrence has been announced out with Covid-19.  It’s a 20* all the way down to +21.

Boston College just continues to be a money maker every year.  They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season.  They are coming off a 21-point win over Georgia Tech last week.  Their only two losses this season came to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, which are two of the best teams in the ACC.

They only lost 22-26 to North Carolina and were only outgained by 48 yards, which was one of their most impressive performances of the season.  And their loss to Virginia Tech was very misleading as they were only outgained by 26 yards in that contest, but they committed five turnovers which led to the blowout.  They can hang with Clemson here.

Clemson only beat a terrible Syracuse team by 26 last week as a 47-point favorite.  And that was even with winning the turnover battle 4-1 for the game.  Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  They have a huge game on deck next week at Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are unbeaten and the No. 4 ranked team in the country.  

They will clearly be looking ahead to that game.  They won’t be looking to play their starters late in this one if it gets out of hand, so the back door will always be open if we need it.  But I fully expect Boston College to be covering wire-to-wire and giving Clemson a run for its money.  The Tigers’ main goal will be making sure everyone is healthy heading into the Notre Dame game.  And obviously, not having the best player in the country in Lawrence is a huge downgrade and worth more than the 7-8 points the oddsmakers have adjusted for his loss.

The Eagles are a sensational 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 ACC games.  Boston College is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Hawaii/Wyoming FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 60

The Wyoming Cowboys have been a dead nuts UNDER team under 7th-year head coach Craig Bohl.  They have an elite defense and a terrible offense seemingly year in and year out.  And I believe that to be the case again in 2020.

Indeed, Wyoming has scored just 25.4 PPG, 20.7 PPG and 23.5 PPG the last three years, respectively.  But the Cowboys have only allowed 17.8 PPG, 22.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG the last three years, respectively, as well.

The 34-37 loss to Nevada in the opener has this total inflated tonight.  But Nevada has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West this year under Jay Norvell with 10 starters back on that side of the ball.  They lit up this Wyoming defense, which wasn’t prepared for them.  And Wyoming had to throw the ball around the yard to try and play catch up, which isn’t their style.

Look for Wyoming to get back to their preferred game plan, which is to run the football and play elite defense.  The last two years Wyoming averaged 215 rushing yards per game and only 136 passing in 2019 and 199 rushing and 131 passing in 2018.  They clearly have QB problems again this year after starter Sean Chambers went out with a leg injury early against Nevada.  Backup Levi Williams went just 16-of-31 passing in his absence and looked very inaccurate.

Hawaii scored 34 points on a bad Fresno State defense in the opener, but their defense came to play in limiting the Bulldogs to just 19 points.  The offense is learning a new system under first-year head coach Todd Graham and the defense may have to carry the way early.

The last two matchups in this series went way UNDER the total.  They combined for just 30 points in a 17-13 home victory for Hawaii in 2018.  And the year prior they were tied 21-21 at the end of regulation before Wyoming won 28-21 in overtime.

Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER in its last 20 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Again, this number is inflated after their 71-point outburst against Nevada last week.  It's also going to be cold in Laramie Friday night with 15-25 MPH winds.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints.  It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.

The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home.  They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end.  And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers.  Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday.  Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play.  Getting him back would just be an added bonus.  And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.

It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday.  All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal.  Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game.  I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.

The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta.  They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369.  They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more.  Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries.  Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.

It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome.  In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going.  Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has.  The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

20* South Alabama/Georgia Southern ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +4

I’ve been a lot more impressed with South Alabama than Georgia Southern this season despite both teams having identical 3-2 records.  The Jaguars have played the much tougher schedule and have exceeded expectations in four of their five games by going 4-1 ATS.

Georgia Southern is 3-2, but its three wins have come against Campbell, LA Monroe and UMass which are three of the worst teams they could have possibly faced.  And they only beat Campbell by a single point 27-26 as 34.5-point favorites.  They also only beat LA Monroe 35-30 as 19.5-point favorites.

That gives them a common opponent.  Both have faced Louisiana-Monroe this season.  South Alabama crushed LA-Monroe 38-14 while Georgia Southern only beat them by 5.  The wrong team is favored in this Sun Belt showdown tonight.

Plays against favorite of 3.5 to 10 points (GA Southern) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS since 1992.

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  South Alabama is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears.  Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here.  Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season.

The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game.  This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons.  The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game.

The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game.  The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard.  Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts.  It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff.

The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring.  Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points.  And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.

The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -2.5

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the New England Patriots this week.  They are coming off two straight losses to the Chiefs and Broncos where they also failed to cover.  Now we are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers this week.

The losses are easily explainable.  The Patriots have only had one padded practice in the last two weeks due to Covid-19 issues.  They just haven’t had the time together they’ve needed.  Yet they still gave the Chiefs all they wanted even without Cam Newton.  They outgained the Chiefs by 34 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-1, which was the difference.

And last week Newton came back and was a little rusty.  The defense did a good job of holding the Broncos to six field goals to give the offense a chance.  And the Patriots had the ball with a chance to win it in the end.  But they came up short, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team playing with a chip on its shoulder.  I can’t remember the last time Belichick lost three straight games.

At the same time, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers.  They got their signature win last week against the Rams to bounce back from their embarrassing 43-17 loss to the Dolphins.  But that was a bad spot for the Rams because they were playing their fourth road game in five games with three of those trips all the way out East.  They predictably had an off game, and the 49ers took advantage.

Now the 49ers go from facing a fat and happy Rams team to a pissed off Patriots team.  And the 49ers still have the same issues that got them off to an ugly start this season that included upset home losses as 6.5-point favorites or more to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Their injury report is a mess, and it got worse last week.

The 49ers lost starting RB Raheem Mostert and starting C Ben Garland in the win over the Rams.  They also had T Trent Williams get injured and his return is questionable this week.  They were already missing CB Richard Sherman, C Richburt, DE Bosa, DT Thomas, DE Ford, DE Ansah, LB Alexander and CB Williams.  The only team with possibly a worse injury report than the 49ers is the Eagles.

The Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games following a loss.  New England is 42-17-2 ATS in its last 61 October games.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* Bucs/Raiders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Las Vegas +3

The Las Vegas Raiders are better than they are getting credit for this season.  That is the case again here as they are coming off their bye week yet they are still 3-point home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  We’ll gladly keep backing this team until the markets catch up to them.

The Raiders opened the season with a 34-30 win at Carolina and a 34-24 home win over the Saints.  Both of those wins have aged well.  Their loss to the Patriots wasn’t as bad as the score would indicate as they were only outgained by 31 yards by New England, and that was before the Patriots were hit with Covid-19 and playing well.

Then the Raiders lost 23-30 at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 46 yards.  And they bounced back with their most impressive win of the season, a 40-32 win at Kansas City as 11-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that victory as they racked up 490 yards on the Chiefs and outgained them by 77 yards.

This team is finally starting to look like what John Gruden envisioned when he took over.  They have a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.2 points and 399 yards per game this season.  There is a lot of MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson and others, but no mention of Derek Carr, which is a shame because he’s having a monster season.  Carr is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,442 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through five games.

I cashed in the Bucs last week against the Packers, but now it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them after their misleading 38-10 win.  They basically got 14 of those points off of back-to-back Aaron Rodgers interceptions.  Tom Brady didn’t have to do much as he went 17-of-27 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks.  Brady is definitely showing his age a little more this season, and the Raiders clearly have the better quarterback in this matchup.

Bruce Arians is 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% in all games as a head coach.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons.  Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  We’ll back the rested, underrated team off their bye week catching points at home this week.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are much better than their 1-4-1 record would indicate.  They have three losses by 5 points or less as well as a tie this season.  And their only blowout loss came 3-27 to the Baltimore Ravens, the same team that also beat Cleveland 38-6.

The Browns are way overrated with their 4-2 record right now.  Their two losses have come by a combined score of 76-13 to the Ravens and Steelers.  Those results have them actually getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the season.  To compare, Cincinnati is only getting outscored by 4.7 points per game.  So getting +3.5 with the Bengals at home here is a nice value.

Plus, the Bengals want revenge from their 30-35 road loss to the Browns in their first meeting this season.  And the Bengals are healthier since then as they just got AJ Green back from injury.  They played great against the Colts on the road last week but couldn’t hold onto their 21-0 lead.  Their kicker missed a key FG that could have turned the tide of that game late.

Things have gotten worse for the Browns since.  Their lost their best running back in Nick Chubb, and the best thing they had going for them was their rushing attack this season.  That’s because Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and now he’s dealing with a rib injury that limited him against the Steelers last week and eventually saw him replaced by Case Keenum.  The Browns are only averaging 189 passing yards per game this season.  Mayfield is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt with a 10-to-6 TD/INT ratio.

Joe Burrow has looked great this season outside that game against the Ravens in which he didn’t have Green or Ross to throw the ball too.  He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,617 yards through six games this season, averaging 269.5 yards per game.  He torched the Browns for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception in their first meeting this season, and it should be more of the same Sunday.  Burrow is living up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in the draft.

Cincinnati’s defense has improved greatly the last few weeks, especially against the run.  They are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  They held the Ravens to just 332 total yards as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate, but unfortunately their offense couldn’t get anything going since Burrow was missing his main weapon in Green.  He’s growing a great chemistry with Green, Higgins and Boyd as the Bengals have some of the most underrated weapons in the NFL.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Browns are 16-39-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take the Bengals Sunday.

15* Michigan/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off an impressive 11-2 season in PJ Fleck’s third year on the job last season.  It concluded with an upset win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl.  Fleck is proving he is one of the best coaches in college football with what he did at Western Michigan and now what he’s already doing at Minnesota.

Fleck welcomes back 13 starters this season.  He’ll have yet another great offense with nine starters back from a unit that put up 34.1 points and 432 yards per game.  The defense will take a step back with only four starters back, but Fleck has fielded a good defense in all three of his seasons here not once allowing more than 26.5 points per game, and roughly 22 points per game in two of the three seasons.

Jim Harbaugh remains one of the most overrated head coaches in the country.  Last year Michigan was supposed to win the Big Ten with all they had returning, but they fell flat and finished 9-4 after getting crushed by Alabama in the bowl.  Now this is one of his worst, least-experienced teams yet with only 11 returning starters.  The Wolverines lose their top three tacklers on defense and QB Shea Patterson.  They will be going with Dylan McCaffrey, who did not play well in limited action last year at quarterback.

Since 2006, Michigan is 1-20 SU on the road vs. ranked teams and losing by an average of 15 points per game.  The Wolverines are also 6-15 ATS in this spot and failing to cover by 8 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/LSU OVER 55

Many expected LSU’s offense to drop off dramatically without Joe Burrow this season.  But they have been just fine on that side of the ball this season.  The problem has been on the defensive side for the Tigers.  So I like the OVER 55 points here in this matchup with South Carolina.

LSU is scoring 38.7 points and averaging 467.3 yards per game this season.  Defensively, the Tigers have been pitiful in giving up 32.0 points and 494.7 yards per game.  So they are combining with their opponents for 70.7 points per game this season, which is much higher than this 55-point total.

South Carolina is improved offensively this season in averaging 30.5 points per game.  Their defense has been average in giving up 24.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks will get their points against this LSU defense, but they will be up against the best offense they have faced this season maybe outside Florida, which lit them up for 38 points.

The OVER is 8-1 in Gamecocks last nine games after gaining fewer than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game.  The forecast is great scoring conditions too with 84 degrees and only 7 MPH wins Saturday in Baton Rouge.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +11

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Pittsburgh Panthers this week.  They have lost three straight after opening the season 3-0.  Two of the losses came by exactly one point each, so they are very close to being a 5-1 team.

Last week they failed to cover as 11.5-point closing dogs in a 12-point loss to Miami.  Me and my clients cashed in Pitt +13.5 earlier in the week, so they cashed for us.  And I’m back on them again this week for many of the same reason.

Like I stated before, Pitt could easily be 5-1 right now and are undervalued because of their 3-3 record.  They have one of the best defenses in the country, which keeps them in games.  They give up just 20.3 points, 275 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play on the season.

Pitt’s offense has been shaky at times, but they are still putting up a solid 29.3 points per game.  I know starting QB Kenny Pickett did not play last week and is questionable to return this week.  But backup Joey Yellen played well against a good Miami defense last week.  He threw for 277 yards and a touchdown in his Pitt debut.  Another week of practice here will do the Arizona State transfer wonders.  And there’s a chance Pickett plays, which would only be a bonus.

This is as much of a fade of Notre Dame as it is a play on Pitt this week.  The Fighting Irish are ranked 3rd in the country right now, but they are nowhere near the 3rd-best team in the country.  It has them overvalued being ranked this high.

Notre Dame only beat Duke by 14, failed to cover as 20.5-point favorites against Florida State and only beat Louisville by 5 last week as 15.5-point favorites.  That gives Pitt and Notre Dame a common opponent in Louisville.  Pitt beat Louisville 23-20 but it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Panthers outgained the Cardinals by 153 yards.  Notre Dame only outgained Louisville by 105 yards in their 12-7 win last week.

So you could make the argument that Pitt is actually the better team based on that head-to-head comparison.  And they certainly aren’t 11 points worse than Notre Dame.  Their defense will keep them in this game, just as it did last time these teams met in 2018.  Pitt only lost 14-19 as 21-point road underdogs.  The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Now Pitt gets Notre Dame at home, and this will be the first road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, which is always a tough situation.

Notre Dame is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games vs. good defensive teams that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pitt is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game.  There’s a ton of value on the Panthers catching double-digits at home this weekend.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Rice -3.5

The Rice Owls should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Mike Bloomgren came over from Stanford and has turned the Owls into a poor man’s version of the Cardinal.  And now Bloomgren is in Year 3 with all of his players in place to run his schemes.  They have 17 returning starters.

After starting 0-9 last year with four losses by a single score, the Owls went 3-0 inter final three games with upset victories over Middle Tennessee and North Texas as well as a crushing of UTEP.  Now the Owls have a ton of momentum heading into 2020 and can’t wait to show the college football world how improved they are.  I like their chances of making a bowl game for the first time since 2014.

Now the Owls finally get to play their opener against one of the worst teams in college football in Middle Tennessee, a team they upset last year as 14-point dogs.  Middle Tennessee is 1-5 this season with its only victory coming against a bad FIU team by a final of 31-28.  They are getting outscored by 15.7 points per game on the season.

Rice is a power-running team that will be able to run the football at will on a soft Middle Tennessee defense that is giving up 256 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.  They allowed 52 points, 768 total yards and 462 rushing yards to a terrible North Texas team last week in a 35-52 loss.

Plays against again team (Middle Tennessee) - a poor team outscored by 7 or more points per game, after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Rice Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back nicely from their fluky loss to Louisiana in the opener.  They have gone 3-0 in Big 12 play and faced the gauntlet.  They took care of TCU on the road, upset Oklahoma 37-30 as a 7.5-point home dog and crushed Texas Tech 31-15 as a 9.5-point home favorite in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They had 516 yards of total offense and one of Texas Tech’s two touchdowns came on a blocked FG return TD.

Oklahoma State couldn’t have played a much softer schedule to this point.  They were actually outgained by Tulsa in their 16-7 win in their opener.  Their 27-13 win over WVU was much closer than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 11 yards by the Mountaineers.  And their blowout win over Kansas is nothing to be proud of because everyone is crushing Kansas this season.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-1 SU & in the last five meetings.  Iowa State won 48-42 as 10-point dogs two years ago at Oklahoma State.  And I fully expect the Cyclones to pull the ‘upset’ here.  It won’t be an upset to me because the Cyclones are the best team in the Big 12 in my opinion.

Iowa State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  Matt Campbell is 21-8 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Campbell is 15-2 ATS in October games as the coach of the Cyclones.  Iowa State is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones only give up 97 rushing yards and 2.9 per carry this season, so they have what it takes to shut down Chuba Hubbard and Oklahoma State’s rushing attack.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

20* Tulsa/USF ESPN No-Brainer on Tulsa -10

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have held their own against two of the best teams in the country in Oklahoma State and UCF.  They were 23.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State and only lost 7-16 while actually outgaining the Cowboys.  Then they upset UCF 34-26 as 20.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 17 yards.

Now Tulsa is ready to go after having three weeks off in between games.  That should have them focused to face a South Florida team that has been a punching bag thus far.  USF is 1-4 with its only win over FCS The Citadel in its opener.  The Bulls have since gone 0-4 in their last four games while while getting outscored by an average of 23.8 points per game.  They even lost by 20 at home to a bad East Carolina team.  It will be more of the same here against Tulsa.

The Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference home games.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

20* Giants/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on New York +4.5

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Philadelphia Eagles.  They are missing nine starters on offense and five backups to injury.  Not to mention, they are missing several big names on the defensive side of the ball as well.

It’s no wonder the Eagles are off to a 1-4-1 start this season.  And they used everything they had to try and come back against the Ravens last week after they found themselves trailing 24-6 entering the 4th quarter.  They outscored the Ravens 22-6 in the final period, but came up a 2-point conversion short.

When teams lose a heartbreaker like that, I like to fade them the next week.  And this is the perfect time to do so because now the Eagles are on a short week and will certainly be fatigued and not fully recovered.  They already lack depth across the board with all these injuries and should not be this big of a favorite because of it.

The Giants are squarely in the NFC East race, just like the Eagles, because the division has been so bad.  What the Giants have going for them is probably the best defense in the division if it’s not Washington.  They have held three of their first six opponents to 19 or fewer points and have a defense that can keep them in ball games.

The last three weeks they have played much better than the first three.  They took the Rams to the wire on the road, held a late lead against the Cowboys on the road, and beat Washington at home.  They will be in this game for four quarters, so getting +4.5 is a nice value.

The Giants have been a great bet on the road over the years, especially recently.  New York is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Giants are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs.  New York is 8-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons.  Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Giants Thursday.

15* Arkansas State/Appalachian State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13.5

I’ve seen enough from Arkansas State to know they can hang with Appalachian State this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS so they have exceeded expectations thus far.  And I think the oddsmakers are off on them again here as 13.5-point underdogs to the Mountaineers.

The Red Wolves only lost by 13 to Memphis on the road as 18.5-point dogs in the opener.  They upset Kansas State 35-31 as 15-point road dogs the next week, and Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12 now.  Memphis just upset UCF last week.  So those two performances have aged well.  They also beat Central Arkansas by 23 as 14.5-point favorites and topped a good Georgia State team 59-52 as 3.5-point favorites.

I think you can throw out their performance against Coastal Carolina.  They were dealing with Covid and Coastal Carolina played keep away the whole game.  They controlled the ball for over 41 minutes in that contest to just 18 and change for the Red Wolves.  And keep in mind Coastal Carolina is now ranked No. 25 in the country, unbeaten and coming off a win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Appalachian State is on its third head coach in three years.  At some point, this turnover is going to hurt the program, and it will be sooner rather than later.  It appears to be showing this season as the Mountaineers are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.  They only won by 15 as 17-point home favorites over a bad Charlotte team.  They failed to cover as a 35.5-point favorite against Campbell, which has gotten rolled by everyone.  And they lost 7-17 to Marshall as a 6.5-point favorite in their toughest game thus far.  This isn’t the same dominant App State team we’ve seen from the past two years, but they are being priced like they are that same team in 2020.

Plays on road underdogs (Arkansas State) - after covering the spread in four of their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Take Arkansas State Thursday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas +1.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Dallas Cowboys Monday night.  They are 0-5 ATS on the season having not once covered the spread.  They were favored in four of their first five games, and now they are home underdogs for the first time all season.  That’s why this is a ‘buy low’ spot and a great value on the Cowboys.

A lot is being made of the injury to Dak Prescott, but fortunately for the Cowboys they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Andy Dalton.  And he put up even better numbers than Dak Prescott did in his first four seasons in the NFL.  Dalton has the luxury of having arguably the most offensive talent around him of anyone in the NFL.

Dalton used that talent to guide the Cowboys on a game-winning drive to beat the Giants last week, 37-34, after replacing Prescott.  He finished 9-of-11 for 111 yards in the win and threw some great sideline routes where his receivers made some great plays for him as well.  This offense is going to keep on humming.

The Cardinals are 3-2 this season, but their three wins have come against the Jets, 49ers and Washington who are a combined 3-12 on the season.  They also lost to the Lions and Panthers.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals, and I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their blowout win over the hapless Jets last week.

The Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday night games.  Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog.  The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Arizona.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

15* Packers/Bucs Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +1

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  Some come at better times than others.  And I actually think this is a bad time for the Packers to have a bye.  They had a ton of momentum with their 4-0 start, but now that momentum comes to a halt here.

Now the Packers go into their bye week feeling fat and happy instead of hungry.  And it’s not the normal advantage for the Packers because their opponent played last Thursday, so it’s a mini-bye week for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  And we have a hungry Bucs team coming off a bad last-second loss to the Bears in which they blew a 13-0 lead.

Getting Tom Brady off a loss as a home underdog is a great proposition.  I don’t think we’ve ever had a chance to back him as a home dog off a loss, at least not that I can remember.  And Brady now should have nearly his full compliment of weapons.  Chris Godwin will return from a couple game absence, and Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are both expected to play as well.  The Bucs are about as healthy as they’ve been all season.

It’s just a great time to ’sell high’ on the Packers, who have feasted on an easy schedule thus far.  Their 4-0 record has come against teams that are a combined 5-14 on the season.  This will be their stiffest test yet, and I expect the Bucs to hand them their first defeat.

The Bucs get a lot of praise for their explosive offense, but it is their underrated defense that makes them so good.  The Bucs are among the best teams in the NFL in giving up just 298.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 62 yards per game below their season averages.  The Packers give up 6.4 yards per play, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Tampa Bay) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Tampa Bay is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Carolina Panthers -1

What more do the Carolina Panthers have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Teddy Bridgewater has clearly been one of the most underrated starters in the NFL.  He has guided the Panthers to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run in his last three starts.  And keep in mind the Panthers were competitive with both the Raiders and Bucs in losses to open the season.

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Chicago Bears, who could easily be 0-5 instead of 4-1.  They are the most fraudulent team in the NFL in my opinion.  They had a 17-point 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a 16-point 4th quarter comeback against the Falcons.  They had to get a stop to beat the Giants by 4.  And they got a last-second field goal to beat the Bucs.  In their lone loss, they were dominated by the Indianapolis Colts at home.

The numbers tell the story of which team is a fraud and which is not.  The Panthers are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game on the season behind an offense that is putting up nearly 400 yards per game.  The Bears are getting outgained by 20.8 yards per game with a pitiful offense that averages just 323.2 yards per game.

Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Carolina is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Lions -3

The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye and have a chance to regroup and rebound here against a hapless Jacksonville Jaguars team.  I love the spot for the Lions, who are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye week.

There’s no question the Lions are better than they have shown.  They should be 2-2 right now but blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Bears.  Their other two losses came to the Packers and Saints, which are forgivable.  They also beat a good Cardinals team on the road.

So this is easily a big step down in class for Detroit, which has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to this point.  They face a Jaguars team that should be 0-5.  They were outgained by over 200 yards by the Colts in their lone win, a fluky won.  And they’ve gone on to go 0-4 in their last four games overall while getting outscored by 45 points, or by an average of 11.3 points per game.  They lost by 18 to the Dolphins, by 8 to the Bengals and by 16 to the Texans, and you could make the argument that the Lions are better than all three of those teams.

Matthew Stafford should have the offense hitting on all cylinders against a soft as butter Jaguars defense that is giving up 29.4 points and 416.8 yards per game.  They’ve traded away or lost in free agency almost all of their talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Gardner Minshew is a solid quarterback, but he’s in over his head with the lack of talent surrounding him on offense as well.

Plays on any team (Detroit) - a good offensive team averaging 5.4 to 5.8 yards per play against a team with a terrible defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 100 yards or more in their last game are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Lions Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals +8

The Cincinnati Bengals played four straight one-score games to start the season.  They finally got their first taste of victory in Week 4 against the Jaguars after some tough losses the first three weeks.  And I think they exhaled and relaxed last week in their blowout loss to the Ravens.

Cincinnati’s defense played well enough to win that game, holding the Ravens to just 332 total yards and 5.4 yards per play.  But their offense couldn’t get anything going and committed three turnovers.  Their offense should get back to playing how it was before that game.

The Bengals had averaged nearly 29 points per game in their three games prior to the Ravens.  AJ Green sat out last week, but he is expected back this week so Burrow will have his favorite target back.  And there’s a good chance the Bengals get John Ross back from a four-game absence at receiver too.  He has been upgraded to questionable this week.

The Bengals should be able to hang with a suspect Indianapolis offense that just isn’t very good led by Philip Rivers.  He is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t have nearly the weapons in Indy that he did with the Chargers.  Rivers has a 4-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season through five games.  

And keep in mind the Colts have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL thus far.  Their defense was exposed for 32 points by the Browns last week.  They were missing their best player on defense in LB Darius Leonard, and he is doubtful to suit up again this week. The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball outside Leonard as well.

This line should be less than a touchdown in my opinion, so getting eight points with the Bengals is a nice value considering they have played in four one-score games in five weeks with the lone exception being the dominant Ravens.  You want Rivers as an underdog, you don’t want him when he’s laying points, especially not when he is laying more than a touchdown like he is in this game.

The Bengals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.  They have faced the Bengals, Redskins and Colts at home as well as the Cowboys on the road.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Browns.

Their big step up in class game came back in Week 1 when they lost 6-38 at Baltimore.  And now this is another step up in class here against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  But oddsmakers aren’t giving the Steelers the respect they deserve.

Pittsburgh’s offense is back to being as dominant as it was in years’ past.  With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back under center, the Steelers have scored at least 26 points in every game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL to boot, giving up just 302 yards per game.  They are the more complete team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.

The Browns have a soft as butter defense that gives up 29.8 points and 382.6 yards per game this season.  The Browns have been able to run the ball offensively, but Baker Mayfield is going to have to do more than he has been asked to do to this point.  That’s because the Steelers only allow 64 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This is where the bad Baker comes out.

Pittsburgh is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home meetings with Cleveland.  The Steelers are 23-2 SU in their last 25 meetings with the Browns with Big Ben under center.  The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Cleveland is 7-23-2 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +12.5

Virginia Tech’s injury report is a mess.  They were missing double-digit players due to Covid-19 last week against North Carolina.  They trailed 42-17 early in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels let their foot off the gas and resulted in a 56-45 UNC victory.

That high-scoring game had to take a lot out of Virginia Tech.  Their soft as butter defense was gashed for 656 total yards by UNC.  They will still be feeling the after-affects of that game heading into this showdown with Boston College even if they get a few players back from Covid-19 absences.  Either way, they should not be double-digit favorites over Boston College.

The Eagles are off to a 3-1 start this season that includes an impressive upset win at Duke 26-6 and an upset win over Pittsburgh at home.  Their only loss came to one of the best teams in the country in North Carolina by a final of 22-26.  They were only outgained by 48 yards by the Tar Heels.

That gives these teams two common opponents, and going off that Boston College has fared better against Duke and UNC than Virginia Tech has.  They outscored UNC and Duke by a combined 16 points, while Virginia Tech was outscored by a a combined 4 points against those two teams.  They only beat Duke 38-31.  If anything, Boston College has been the better team to this point and should not be a double-digit dog.

The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS int emir last 26 conference games.  Virginia Tech is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.  Boston College is 53-33 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog, including 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including outright wins each of the last two seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +5.5

It’s definitely a good time to ‘buy low’ on Mississippi State this week.  I had Kentucky against them last week and didn’t really have to sweat it because Mississippi State just kept making mistake after mistake with six turnovers in their 24-2 loss to the Wildcats.  That came a week after committing four turnovers in an upset loss to Arkansas after upsetting LSU to open the season.

That makes 14 turnovers for Mississippi State through three games, which is the most int he country.  Mike Leach will be preaching ball security this week, and they won’t be committing four-plus turnovers again to give the game away.

This is a tough spot for Texas A&M after playing two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and Florida the last two weeks.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for Mississippi State this week, and they certainly won’t be as excited to play the Bulldogs as they were Alabama and Florida.

The Bulldogs have too good of stats to be a 1-2 team to this point, which is why it’s a ‘buy low’ opportunity.  They are outgaining their opponents by 157 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play thus far.  Their defense has been dynamite in holding three SEC opponents to just 286 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.

Texas A&M is 2-1 despite getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play thus far.  They are giving up 6.7 yards per play defensively, which is 2.5 yards per play more than Mississippi State is allowing.  And QB KJ Costello should have a big game against a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 71.6% completions, 299 passing yards per game and 10.2 yards per attempt.  The Bulldogs average 404 passing yards per game in Leach’s Air Raid attack.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - with a turnover margin of -2 per game or worse on the season, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1992.  This trend just goes to show that it’s a good move to back teams with poor turnover differentials over multiple games in a row.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Duke +4.5

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the best one-win teams in the country.  They are much better than their 1-4 record would indicate.  The problem for them has been turnovers as they have committed a whopping 19 turnovers already and have a -11 differential on the season.  These are the teams that I like to back because there’s some positive regression coming for the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe usually coaches a very smart Duke team year after year that exceeds expectations because of playing the game the right way.  But that hasn’t happened thus far, though they’ve shown signs of getting things turned around.  They covered their last two games, only losing 31-38 to Virginia Tech as 11.5-point dogs.

Then last week they dominated Syracuse worse than the 38-24 score would even indicate. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game yet still won by 14.  They outgained Syracuse 645 to 286 in that game, or by 359 total yards.  It was worse than anyone had beaten Syracuse yet this season.

While Duke will play hard knowing it has a bye next week to rest, NC State is in a sandwich spot here.  The Wolf Pack are coming off three straight road games against Virginia Tech, Pitt and Virginia pulling upsets against the latter two.  And now they have a road trip to North Carolina next week on deck.  They will be looking ahead to that in-state rivalry and not giving the 1-4 Blue Devils the proper focus they deserve.  This has upset spot written all over it.

Unlike Duke, NC State has taken care of the football with only four turnovers in four games.  They are due for some negative turnover regression, especially after forcing four turnovers against Virginia last week that aided their upset victory.  And while NC State has a decent offense, their defense is soft as butter.  They give up 447 yards per game on the season and are getting outgained by 45 yards per game despite being 3-1.  Duke is outgaining opponents by 20.4 yards per game despite being 1-4.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Wolfpack and ‘buy low’ on the Blue Devils.

Duke is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Dave Doeren is 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced four or more turnovers as the coach of the Wolfpack, having never covered in this situation in his eight seasons here and losing outright by an average of 16.9 points per game.  NC State is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a conference road win.  

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC State) - off two consecutive road wins, in the first half of the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Pitt Panthers are two points away from being 5-0 this season.  Their consecutive losses to NC State (29-30) and Boston College (30-31) have them undervalued right now.  And now they are catching nearly two touchdowns against the Miami Hurricanes this week.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Pittsburgh.

It’s also time to ’sell high’ on Miami after their 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The Hurricanes were exposed by Clemson last week in their 17-42 loss that wasn’t even that close.  Miami was held to just 210 total yards while committing three turnovers.  They gave up 550 total yards to Clemson and were outgained by 340 yards.  

It’s going to be hard for Miami to get up for Pittsburgh a week after playing one of the best teams in the country in Clemson, so this definitely has ‘hangover’ written all over it.  I like the quotes coming out of the Pittsburgh locker room about how they’ll bounce back this week.  I think they will be the more motivated team for sure.  

It’s a loaded Pitt team still capable of winning the Coastal with 15 returning starters and an elite defense and passing attack.  The Panthers only give up 264 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through five games this season.  They are averaging 284 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt on offense.

Plays against home teams (Miami) - an excellent offensive team that is scoring 35 or more points per game after a loss by 21 points or more are 67-31 (68.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami’s early wins against UAB, Louisville and FSU don’t look so good now.  The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +3.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-2 this season and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  Their two losses came against two of the best teams in the SEC in Tennessee and Florida, and they actually played well in both losses.  They only lost 27-31 to Tennessee and were only outgained by 15 yards.  And they lost 24-38 to Florida in a game that was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 19 yards.

The Gamecocks took out their frustration on Vanderbilt last week in a 41-7 road win and dominated every bit as much as the final score showed.  They outgained the Commodores by 236 yards in the win.  And keep in mind that’s a Vanderbilt team that only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M in their opener.

Now South Carolina will ‘upset’ an Auburn team that could easily be 0-3 right now.  Auburn needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas 30-28 last week as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost 6-27 to Georgia the week before and were outgained by 226 yards.  And they did not deserve to beat Kentucky in their opener in a misleading 29-13 final that saw them get outgained by 60 yards by the Wildcats.  There was a 14-point swing in that game after the refs missed a TD by Kentucky on review that changed the whole game.

Auburn is 0-6 ATS off a home conference win over the last three seasons.  South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games off a blowout conference win by 21 points or more.    Auburn is a complete fraud as the 15th-ranked team in the country currently and will get exposed by the Gamecocks this weekend.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Houston Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston +5.5

I was very impressed with Houston in their season opener against Tulane last week.  They were sloppy early, which I expected, but the way they came back and won with ease from a 24-7 deficit shows they are the real deal this season.  They outscored the Green Wave 42-7 the rest the way after they finally quit turning the ball over.

The Cougars lost the turnover battle 5-0 yet still won by 18 points.  They outgained the Green Wave by 265 total yards and held them to just 211 total yards.  This is one of the most experienced teams in the country as Houston brought back 19 starters in Year 2 under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s clear to me after just one game that this is going to be a contender in the AAC.

BYU is getting a lot of credit for beating up on a soft schedule thus far, going 4-0 against the likes of Navy, Troy, LA Tech and UTSA.  This is by far BYU’s stiffest test yet.  And the Cougars struggled with UTSA as a 34-point favorite last week.  They only beat UTSA 27-20 in that game.

Now BYU is working on a short week with five days to prepare for Houston.  Meanwhile, the Cougars have seven days to prepare for BYU after playing last Thursday, which is a nice advantage.  And BYU has cluster injuries along the offensive line.  Three starters in G Tristen Hoge, C James Empey and G Kieffer Longson are all questionable.  And backup guard Keanu Salaepaga is doubtful.  Offensive line injuries always get overlooked in the point spread in college football, and that is the case in this game.

Kalani Sitake is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in the last three games as the coach of BYU.  This is a system that has never lost in the five years that Sitake has been at the helm.  After beating up on a soft schedule thus far, BYU meets its match this week.  Bet Houston Friday.

20* Georgia State/Arkansas State ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia State +3.5

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  

I really like what I’ve seen from Georgia State thus far.  They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime, a team that was expected to challenge for the top Group of 5 spot and one that upset Iowa State in Week 1.  They lost 31-34 as 17-point dogs.  Then they bounced back with an impressive 49-29 win over East Carolina as 1.5-point dogs.

Freshman QB Cornelius Brown is a problem with his dual-threat ability.  He has thrown for 434 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  Coates has proven he can be the featured back this year with 263 yards and three scores on 57 carries.  There is a lot to like about this offense.

Arkansas State played well against Memphis and Kansas State to open the season before Covid-19 hit the team.  Then they lost 23-52 at Coastal Carolina as 3.5-point favorites before coming back last week to beat FCS Central Arkansas 50-27.

Georgia State has a huge scheduling advantage in this spot.  The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday, so they have just four days to get ready for Georgia State.  And keep in mind Georgia State upset Arkansas State 52-38 last year as 6.5-point home dogs, gaining 722 total yards and 39 first downs on the Red Wolves in a dominant win.  I really think the wrong team is favored here.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Georgia State) - off a home win, with 16 starters returning are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Georgia State Thursday.

20* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana ESPN No-Brainer on Louisiana -7.5

The Louisiana-Lafeyette Rajin’ Cajuns are probably the best Group of 5 team in the country.  They returned 14 starters from a team that went 11-3 last season with seven on offense and seven on defense.  And they have opened 3-0 this season.

Their 31-14 upset win over Iowa State in the opener looks better and better by the week now that Iowa State is 3-0 in the Big 12.  They predictably had a bit of a letdown against a quality Georgia State team the next week, but still won in overtime 34-31.  And then they were missing a ton of players due to Covid-19 in their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern.

I think those narrow wins as 17-point favorites over Georgia State and 12-point favorites over Georgia Southern have the Rajin’ Cajuns actually undervalued right now.  They will get a lot of players back from Covid-19, including star RB Elijah Mitchell, and they have not played since September 26th.  They will be rested and ready to make a statement on this standalone National TV game on a Wednesday night.

Conversely, I think Coastal Carolina is being way overvalued after a 3-0 start against a very easy schedule.  They beat lowly Kansas in the opener thanks to winning the turnover battle 3-0.  They beat FCS Campbell, and they took advantage of an Arkansas State team that had Covid-19 problems of their own leading into that game.

While I’ll admit Coastal Carolina is improved this year, I don’t think they are improved enough to stay within 7.5 points of Louisiana.  They lost 48-7 to Louisiana as 14-point home underdogs last year and were outgained by 328 total yards in that loss.  Now they are only 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch this year.  There’s clearly value with the Rajin’ Cajuns in this game.

Coastal Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Wednesday.

20* Bills/Titans AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -3.5

What a mess the last couple weeks have been for the Tennessee Titans.  They have now received a total of 24 positive Covid-19 tests dating back to September 24th.  But they finally went two days in a row without a positive and now will be able to play this game Tuesday night.

All these positive tests have certainly made practice and prep for this game against Buffalo less than ideal to say the least.  And I have to think they will be the less prepared team in this game, which is bad news going up against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills.

The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-0 against a very soft schedule, too.  They have three wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings by a combined 6 points.  Those three teams have a combined record of 3-11 this season.

Most concerning is a Tennessee defense that is allowing 24.7 points and 422.3 yards per game against those three teams, which don’t have great offenses, especially the Broncos and Jaguars.  And now they have to face one of the league’s best offenses in the Bills, who average 30.8 points and 409.8 yards per game on the season.

Buffalo’s defensive numbers haven’t been up to par for the level of talent they have, but they’ve still managed to go 4-0.  And a lot of that is due to injuries.  But the Bills are starting to get healthier on that side of the ball, and having a few extra days here to get ready could get some guys back in the lineup that are listed as questionable.

Tennessee is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in two straight are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bills Tuesday.

20* Chargers/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Chargers are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate.  After going on the road and beating the Bengals 16-13, the Chargers have lost three straight.  But they’ve lost to three very hot teams in the Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs all by 7 points or less.

They lost 20-23 (OT) to Kansas City and outgained the Chiefs by 65 yards.  That game alone against the defending Super Bowl champs shows what they are capable of.  They lost 16-21 to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 134 yards.  And last week they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to the Bucs, 31-38.

The Chargers should not be catching more than a touchdown against the Saints.  I would argue the Chargers actually have the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has impressed as a rookie in his three starts.  Herbert is completing 72% of his passes for 931 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

Drew Brees has really started to show his age this season.  Of course, injuries on offense have not helped matters as the Saints are just 2-2 this season.  WR Michael Thomas has been out with an ankle injury since Week 1 and is questionable to return this week.  Both starting tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are questionable this week, as is TE Jared Cook.

The Saints have also shown a lot of holes defensively this season and a lot of that has to do with injuries as well.  Three of their best players in CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport are all questionable this week.  The Saints are giving up 30.8 points per game on the season, so it’s tough to trust them to lay 8 points with that kind of defense.

The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games off three or more consecutive losses.  Los Angeles is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog.  The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog overall.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

20* Vikings/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are 1-3 this season but their three losses have come to teams that are a combined 10-1 this season.  They did not look good the first couple weeks against the Packers and Colts, but they’ve turned it around since.

After a tough 30-31 loss to the unbeaten Titans, the Vikings went on the road last week and crushed Houston 31-23.  Their offense has really gotten going the last couple weeks as they had 464 total yards against the Titans and 410 more against the Texans.  Justin Jefferson has back-to-back 100-yard games and is clearly a great replacement for Diggs.  And Dalvin Cook is simply a playmaker out of the backfield.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seahawks, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  They could easily be 1-3.  They got a goal-line stand against the Patriots to preserve a 35-30 win, picked off Dak Prescott in the end zone to preserve a 38-31 win, and held the Dolphins to five field goals which was the difference in a 31-23 win.

Now the Seahawks are in their biggest favorite role of the season, laying 7 points to the Vikings this week.  The Vikings can match the Seahawks score for score because Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Indeed, the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL in giving up 476.8 yards per game.  It will catch up with them eventually, and I believe it does this week.  Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side of the football for Seattle.  The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +8.5

The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and desperate for a win.  Their three losses this season have comes against three teams that are a combined 10-2 this season in the Patriots, Bills and Seahawks.  Both both losses are by the Patriots, who lost to the Chiefs and Seahawks and gave both a run for their money.

The Dolphins had their chances to beat the Patriots but a INT inside the 5-yard line late prevented the comeback.  The Dolphins hung right with the Bills and only lost 28-31.  And they lost to the Seahawks by 8 last week, but that game was much closer than the 23-31 final would indicate.

The Dolphins had to settle for five field goals on their first five scoring drives, so they couldn’t capitalize in the red zone.  They also had a busted coverage right before halftime that turned a 1-point game into an 8-point game going into intermission.  The Seahawks got the ball back with 24 seconds left after yet another Miami field goal, and somehow managed to score a touchdown with three seconds left.  The Dolphins were only outgained by 26 yards by Seattle.

And while the Dolphins have one of the best injury situations in the NFL, the 49ers have one of the worst.  They had two more starters go down with injury last week in CB K’Waun Williams and DE Ezekiel Ansah, and both are out this week.  Ansah was signed to replace Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who are both on injured reserve, as are DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman and C Weston Richburn.  QB Jimmy G could return this week, but he’s really not much of an upgrade over Nick Mullens.  And they have another handful of players questionable.

The 49ers are 2-2 this season with their only wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  They lost outright as home favorites of -6.5 or more to both the Cardinals and Eagles, and those losses look worse by the day, too.  And this is a role they have struggled in for years.

In fact, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine regular season games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or more dating back to 2014.  More concerning yet is that the 49ers are 3-6 SU in this role.  So don’t even consider using the 49ers in teasers or survivor pools this week.  I have a large bet on the Dolphins +8.5 this week and some at +300 on the money line as well.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals +13

The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely competitive this season and it’s all because of Joe Burrow.  All four of their games have been decided by 8 points or fewer and I believe there’s a good chance this one is as well.

After losing to the Chargers by 3 and Browns by 5, the Bengals tied the Eagles 23-23 in Week 3.  Then they had their coming out party last week in a 33-25 win over Jacksonville.  They racked up 505 total yards in the win behind huge games from Burrow and Joe Mixon. With Burrow and an underrated arsenal of weapons at RB and receiver, the Bengals won’t be out of any game this season.

That’s why I like backing them catching 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens this week.  The Ravens let Washington hang around last week and won 31-17 as a 14-point favorite.  Cincinnati is a lot better than Washington, so catching 13 points with the Bengals is a really nice value.  And keep in mind the Ravens only outgained Washington by 7 yards in that game.  In fact, the Ravens are actually getting outgained by 27.2 yards per game on the season.  They aren’t as dominant as everyone makes them out to be.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (Baltimore) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog.  Baltimore is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  The Ravens simply should not be favored by double-digits here.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky -1.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are 0-2 this season and desperate for their first win.  They could easily be 2-0.  They had a 14-point swing in the Auburn loss where the refs took away a TD from them and it resulted in a TD the other way.  And last week they missed and extra point in OT to lose to Ole Miss.

This is still a very strong Kentucky team that returned 15 starters this season.  They really want to right the ship this week.  They lead the country in 3rd-down conversion percentage, so they are putting their offense in great situations.  And have outgained Auburn and Ole Miss by 80 yards per game despite losing those two.

Mississippi State’s 44-34 win over LSU in the opener was clearly fools’ gold.  They took advantage of an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL.  And last week they came back and promptly laid an egg in a 14-21 home loss to Arkansas as 16.5-point favorites.  That’s an Arkansas team that had lost 20 straight SEC games prior and is terrible to say the least.

Kentucky is 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive under over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +9

The Kansas State Wildcats have responded nicely from their shocking loss to Arkansas State in the opener.  They went on the road and beat Oklahoma outright as 28-point underdogs, and avoided the letdown last week by beating Texas Tech 31-21.

I realize that game against Texas Tech was closer than the final score, but it was a flat spot for the Wildcats and they still came away victorious.  And now we have Kansas State in the role I like to back them in, which is the underdog role here against TCU.

I think the Horned Frogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after upsetting Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have to try and come back and win by double-digits to cover this 9-point spread against a feisty Kansas State team that makes you work for everything you get.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and three of those were decided by a touchdown or less, including the last two.  There’s a very good chance this game is a one-score game in the 4th quarter, which is why there’s a ton of value catching the Wildcats as 9-point dogs in this matchup.

Chris Klieman is 6-0 ATS after a game where his team committed zero turnovers as the coach of Kansas State.  Gary Patterson is 2-12 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of TCU.  Patterson is 2-10 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of TCU.  

The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs overall.  TCU is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +12.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a huge letdown spot.  They just pulled off their first home win over Oklahoma in 60 years, which is astonishing.  And now they have to try and get up to face a Texas Tech team that is 0-2 in the Big 12.  I see the Cyclones coming out flat and for the Red Raiders to give them more than they bargained for.

Conversely, we have a Texas Tech team that is highly motivated for that first Big 12 win.  They blew a 15-point lead in the final three minutes against Texas and lost in overtime in their Big 12 opener.  And last week they probably deserved to beat Kansas State in a 21-31 loss.  They outgained the Wildcats 471 to 404, or by 67 total yards.

Texas Tech starting QB Alan Bowman did get injured early in that loss to Kansas State, but I was impressed by Utah State transfer Henry Columbi, who nearly led them back from a 14-0 halftime deficit.  He replaced Bowman and went 30-of-42 for 244 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He also showed a dual-threat ability with 40 yards on eight carries.  So I’m not worried at all if Columbi starts over Bowman, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Cyclones are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites, including their outright loss to Louisiana in the opener as 13-point favorites.  Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Cyclones just have a way of playing to their competition, and this couldn’t be a worse spot for them off their upset win over Oklahoma.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Louisville/Georgia Tech ACC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 64.5

Two teams desperate for a win who are both coming off two straight losses square off Friday night when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets host the Louisville Cardinals.  It’s also two teams coming off two sloppy performances, so taking care of the football will be a priority.

Georgia Tech has committed five turnovers in its last two games, which has made its defensive numbers look worse than they really are.  For example, the Yellow Jackets only allowed 357 total yards to Syracuse last time out, but gave up 37 points.  Look for taking care of the football to be a priority.

Louisville has committed six turnovers in its last two games against Miami and Pittsburgh.  The defense still held strong and limited the Panthers to just 23 points and 376 total yards last time out.  And this Georgia Tech offense isn’t very good, scoring just 19.0 points per game on the season, so the Louisville defense should have some success again.

Georgia Tech is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 home games after a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Yellow Jackets last 21 games following a bye week.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bucs/Bears FOX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs have really improved rapidly since a season-opening loss to the Saints on the road.  And even that game wasn’t as bad as the score as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held the Saints to 271 total yards.

The Bucs have reeled off three straight wins by a combined 39 points since.  And now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that really could be 0-4 right now, but they’re 3-1 and overvalued as a result.

The Bears came back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lions in their opener.  They had to come up with a defensive stand on the final drive to beat the Giants 17-13.  They came back from 16 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Falcons.  And last week they lost 11-19 to the Colts in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.  

The Colts held the Bears to just 3 points through the first 58 minutes of that game.  But the Bears got a garbage TD late and a 2-point conversion to turn a 19-3 game into a 19-11 one.  It’s clear that Nick Foles is not the savior and probably not even much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, who at least has a dual-threat ability.

Tampa Bay is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after scoring 35 points or more last game.  This Bucs offense is humming, averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three.  Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against a very good Chargers defense last week. The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

15* Tulane/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +7

The Tulane Green Wave already have three games under their belts while the Houston Cougars have yet to play a game due to Covid-19.  That’s a huge advantage for the Green Wave, and they should not be catching a full touchdown against the Cougars tonight because of it.

The Green Wave are very close to being 3-0 if not for a blown 24-0 halftime lead over Navy.  But they responded very well with a 66-24 win over Southern Miss as only 3.5-point favorites last time out.  They replaced the inept Keon Howard at QB in that game and went with Michael Pratt, who threw two touchdown passes while also rushing for 40 yards and a score on seven carries.  They are going with Pratt moving forward and I love the move.

Houston is getting a lot of hype due to having 19 returning starters.  But the Cougars went just 4-8 last season with their only wins over Prairie View A&M, UConn, North Texas and Tulsa, and I still question the talent on this team under Dana Holgorsen.  It’s one of those deals where they are going to need to prove it to me first, and I don’t think they are in a very good position to prove it playing in their first game of the season here.

Willie Fritz is 18-5 ATS off a non-conference games as a head coach.  Fritz is 26-12 ATS in the first half of the season as a head coach.  The Green Wave are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tulane Thursday.

20* Falcons/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Green Bay Packers.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against the Vikings, Lions and Saints, who are a combined 2-7 this season.  They are coming off their big upset win over the overrated Saints on Sunday Night Football last week.

It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have lost to three teams that are a combined 7-2 on the season.  And keep in mind the Falcons were in all three of those games.  They had 506 total yards against the Seahawks, then blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point 4th quarter lead against the Bears.

It’s clear the Falcons can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 30 points per game and averaging 419 yards per game.  And there’s a good chance they get Julio Jones back from injury this week.

Speaking of injuries, Aaron Rodgers could be without his top two receivers this week, and there’s really not much talent at all behind Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable, while Lazard had surgery on a core muscle and is out multiple weeks.  That’s a big blow as Lazard and Adams have combined for 30 receptions for 446 yards and four touchdowns through three games.

The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Eagles/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +7.5

This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Philadelphia Eagles.  They have opened 0-2-1 this season despite being favored in all three games.  Now they have moved to whopping +7.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers this week.

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the 49ers, who are coming off two straight blowout victories over arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants.  The 49ers have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL and have been able to overcome it against those two teams.  But they won’t be able to against the Eagles, at least not enough to put them away by 8-plus points, which is what it’s going to take to cover this spread.

The 49ers are without five of their best defensive players in Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman.  They are without C Richburg, RB Coleman, RB Mostert and they could be without QB Garoppolo and WR Samuel.  The Eagles also have some injuries, but they are nowhere near as bad as the situation for the 49ers.

The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  They lost outright as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals in Week 1.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks.  They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game.  They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.

The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys.  They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.

Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins.  It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game.  It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.

The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots.  And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0.  And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.

Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week.  And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.

The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now.  They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense.  Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson.  Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them.  Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.

Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ABC No-Brainer on Iowa State +7

Oklahoma just lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorites last week.  That was the same Kansas State team that lost as a 15-point favorite over Arkansas State in their opener.  And that was an Arkansas State team that was playing without 10 starters due to Covid-19.

So to say that was a bad loss to Kansas State would be an understatement.  And it’s clear the Sooners have another soft defense this year after giving up 38 points to Kansas State.  Plus they have finally downgraded the QB position going from Mayfield to Murray to Hurts, and now they are left with freshman QB Spencer Rattler, who threw three costly interceptions against Kansas State last week.

Iowa State’s loss to Louisiana in the opener was more forgivable.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and it was a misleading 14-31 final.  They also gave up a meaningless TD in the closing seconds with the game already over.  Louisiana is a Top 25 team and one oft he best non-power 5 teams in the country.

The Cyclones bounced back with a 37-34 win at TCU last week in which they overcame another non-offensive touchdown.  It’s a well-coached team that doesn’t make these kinds of mistakes under Matt Campbell.  So they should be shored up moving forward.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 41-42 loss at Oklahoma last year in which they went for the game-winning 2-point conversion at the end and failed.  Few teams have played Oklahoma as tough as Iowa State in recent seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their four meetings with the Sooners under Campbell and all four were decided by 10 points or fewer.

After having zero fans in their home opener against Louisiana, the Cyclones will now be playing in front of 15,000 fans this week at home, which will make a difference.  And they are going with their favorite black jerseys for this nice game, jerseys that they are 3-0 in recent seasons when they’ve worn them.  This is a game the Cyclones can win outright, and at the very least, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown.

Campbell is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  Lincoln Riley is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers as Oklahoma’s head coach.  Campbell is 20-8 ATS as a dog as the coach of Iowa State.  FBS teams coming off a home loss as a 23-point favorite or more where they gave up 30 or more points are 1-15-1 ATS int heir last 17 games when favored in their next game against an unranked opponents.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +21

The Vanderbilt Commodores returned all 11 starters on defense this season and that experience and talent showed in their 12-17 loss to Texas A&M as 31.5-point underdogs in the opener.  Texas A&M is one of the best teams in the country so that effort showed what they are capable of.

Clearly, the Commodores don’t have a great offense but their defense can keep them in games.  Plus Derek Mason liked what he saw from true freshman QB Ken Seals, who completed 20-of-29 passes against Texas A&M.  And the defense only allowed 17 first downs and 372 total yards to a potent Aggies offense.

“Obviously it’s at the high school level, but what you saw on Saturday is what we saw of Ken coming out of high school; extremely accurate on the move as well as in the pocket, and those are the things that have shown up throughout camp,” Commodores coach Derek Mason said on Tuesday.

LSU lost 14 starters to the NFL draft and their leading receiver from last year in Ja’Marr Chase sat out the season, so that makes 15 draft picks really.  And it looks like a clear rebuilding year in Baton Rouge after the Tigers lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as 14.5-point favorites last week.  That’s a Mississippi State team in transition with a first-year head coach in Mike Leach, so it was a really bad loss.

The Tigers gave up an SEC-record 623 passing yards to K.J. Costello in the loss.  It’s clear their defense isn’t anywhere near it has been in years past, and the offense won’t be anywhere near the record-setting offense led by Joe Burrow last year.  New QB Myles Brennan did have 345 passing yards against Mississippi State, but he also threw two interceptions.  The running game produced just 80 yards on 38 carries, of course that counts the minus-45 yards on seven sacks.  Vanderbilt’s defense will make life even worse on Brennan this week.

If LSU wins this game, they’re going to have to win it ugly.  LSU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog Commodores with a total of just 50.5 points.  If they can play with Texas A&M, they can certainly play with this overrated LSU outfit.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +13

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Duke Blue Devils, who are 0-3 SU to start the season.  But they are coming off two misleading losses in which they turned the ball over a combined seven times against Boston College and Virginia, but were only outgained by a total of 141 yards by those two teams.  They showed their potential in their opener, only losing to Notre Dame 13-27 on the road as 21.5-point dogs and getting outgained by 107 yards.

I like the fact that Duke has three games under its belt, so it should be conditioned well and I can’t foresee the Blue Devils continuing to beat themselves.  And I like what I’m hearing from Duke coach David Cutliffe about this team leading up to this game.

“Yes it’s been challenging and it’s going to continue to be challenging,” Cutcliffe told reporters this week. “When you alter anything, you have to increase the quality of everyone you’re doing.  You may not believe this, but I think we’re close.”

This is exactly the type of role I like backing Duke, which is the role of a decent-sized underdog.  And remember last year Duke blitzed Virginia Tech 45-10 as 2.5-point underdogs.  They outgained the Hokies 422 to 259 in that game, so it was no fluke.  And they aren’t nearly two touchdowns worse than the Hokies in 2020.

Virginia Tech is coming off a misleading 45-24 win over NC State as a 6.5-point favorite despite only outgaining a bad Wolfpack team by only 109 yards.  That was the Hokies’ first and only game this season, so they won’t be in as good of playing shape.  They were missing a lot of players and coaches due to Covid-19 and will be without several more again this week.  Their depth will be tested here.

“Each week is different, and there is no guarantee that we’ll have the full complement of people coming into the next week,” coach Justin Fuente said. “It was nice for us to get to do it.  It was nice for us to play well.  Certainly, I don’t want to make too much of it.”

The Hokies are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as road favorites.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Duke is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog.  The Blue Devils are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M +18.5

I’m willing to give Texas A&M a pass here with their 17-12 win as 31.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt.  They thought they could just show up and win that game, but Vanderbilt has a great defense and gave them a fight.  And it’s clear the Aggies were looking ahead to Alabama.

That ‘bad look’ has Texas A&M way undervalued this week catching 18.5 points against Alabama.  This is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  Jimbo Fisher is in his third year with the program so he has all of his players in place.  And the Aggies returned a whopping 17 starters and 72 lettermen, making them the 10th-most experienced team in the land.  They lost by 19 to Alabama last year, but that game was closer than the final score as the Aggies were only outgained by 59 total yards.  They should improve upon that result.

Alabama only has 12 returning starters and has to break in another new starting QB.  Their 38-19 win over Missouri wasn’t impressive at all as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  That’s a really bad Missouri team and they only outgained the Tigers by 92 yards.  And you know with Nick Saban as a head coach they weren’t looking ahead to Texas A&M, either.

Plays against home teams (Alabama) - after leading in their previous game by 17 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored and allowed 17 points or less in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Aggies will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money this weekend.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas State -3

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I cashed in Arkansas State against Memphis, and I also cashed them in when they won outright 35-31 at Kansas State as 15-point underdogs.  They won that game despite missing 10 starters due to Covid-19.  And they should have won by more because they outgained the Wildcats by 115 yards and had 489 yards of total offense.  

That’s the same Kansas State team that just went into Oklahoma and won 38-35 outright as 28-point underdogs.  So that win looks even better now.  And while Arkansas State has played a brutal schedule thus far with those two road trips, they now take a big step down in class against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal Carolina is getting too much credit for its 2-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  Their 38-23 win at Kansas was misleading because they were outgained by 49 yards by the Jayhawks.  And they failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites in a 43-21 win over FCS bottom feeder Campbell.

Now Coastal Carolina takes a big step up in class against an Arkansas State team that should have almost everyone back that tested positive for Covid-19.  The Red Wolves are clearly threats to win the Sun Belt with all the talent they have this year, and the Sun Belt has looked really good early in the season.  

The Red Wolves are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS against Coastal Carolina over the last three seasons, outscoring them by a combined 63 points, or an average of 21 points per game.  The Chanticleers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, including 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* LA Tech/BYU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +25

Skip Holtz is doing a tremendous job at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs have made six straight bowl games under his watch with four 9-plus win seasons and no fewer than seven wins in any of the last six seasons.  They are coming off a 10-3 campaign last season.

The Bulldogs are flying under the radar this season because they only returned eight starters.  But they only returned 11 last year and still won 10 games.  Holtz does wonders with inexperienced teams and does a good job of bringing in transfers while also developing players.  10 starters on offense are juniors or seniors and nine starters on defense are upperclassmen as well.

Louisiana Tech has opened 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They went on the road and upset Southern Miss 31-30 as 7-point underdogs and then handled their business in a 66-38 win over Houston Baptist as 23.5-point favorites.  That’s the same Houston Baptist team that only lost by 2 points at Texas Tech the week prior.

Holtz always has a great quarterback and stud skill position players, and that has been no different in 2020.  Abilene Christian senior transfer Luke Anthony is the next great one here.  He has thrown for 463 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games.  He has found a nice connection with WR Adrian Hardy, who has nine receptions for 148 yards and a score.

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on BYU, which has covered the spread by a combined 78 points in wins over Navy and Troy, two programs that are clearly down this season compared to where they are normally at.  No question those wins were still impressive, but now BYU goes from being a 1.5-point favorite against Navy, a 14-point favorite against Troy to a whopping 25-point favorite against Louisiana Tech.  I think LA Tech would beat both of those teams.

Holtz is 35-18 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 road games.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games as road underdogs.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.  BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Friday.

20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1

The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess.  I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.

The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season.  Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries.  Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.

Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season.  But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season.  This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.

Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around.  And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury.  Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury.  Bet the Jets Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.  And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite.  It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.

The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up.  The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.

These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans.  The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate.  They outgained the Texans by 103 yards.  The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate.  And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.

Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.  Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week.  They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1.  Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.

But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick.  They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39.  I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.

And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys.  I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.

Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games.  The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week.  Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.

The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson.  This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far.  And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well.  It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime.  The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game.  Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.

Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5

I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss.  And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.

I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week.  Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss.  And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1.  It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.

But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL.  They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front.  And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.

The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company.  Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams.  And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary.  We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.

Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached.  Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.

Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983.  Take Washington Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far.  The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys.  The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.

The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week.  And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.

The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards.  And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week.  It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.

Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders.  They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks.  The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Tennessee/South Carolina SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -3

The Tennessee Vols started just 2-5 last year.  But they rebounded in a big way to go 6-0 in their final six games including a bowl win over Indiana.  And now the Vols enter their third season under Jeremy Pruitt, who just got a raise and a contract extension.

Pruitt now has mostly all of his players in place and the Vols could be a surprise contender in the SEC East.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, ranking 12th on that list due to returning a whopping 17 starters.

South Carolina went 4-8 last season and returns just 13 starters.  Injuries really hurt the Gamecocks last season and they aren’t going to be very good this season.  Will Muschamp has this team headed in the wrong direction, similar to what he did at Florida before he was let go.  He is one of the worst coaches in the SEC.

Plays against any team (South Carolina) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against an opponent that closed out last season with four or more straight wins are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Tennessee is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Muschamp is 3-14 ATS in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 in all games he has coached.  The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to South Carolina.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -4

Bronco Mendenhall enters his fifth season at Virginia.  He led the Cavaliers to the Coastal Division title last year and the Cavaliers went on to play Florida very tough in the Orange Bowl, covering as 14-point dogs in a 28-36 loss.

Now the Cavaliers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters and six of their top seven tacklers back.  They have seven starters back on offense, and although they do lose QB Bryce Perkins, he was mistake-prone last year and is replaceable.

Duke has looked terrible in its first two games this season.  The Blue Devils lost 13-27 to Notre Dame before falling 6-26 at home to Boston College last week.  That was a Boston College team with a new head coach playing their first game of the season.  And now they face a veteran Virginia team this week.  I think because it’s Virginia’s first game while Duke has already played two, that is being factored into the line too much.  The Cavaliers will handle it well.

After all, Virginia thumped Duke 48-14 as 3-point home favorites last year.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +13.5

The Army Black Knights clearly came into 2020 underrated off their 5-8 campaign last year.  That followed up back-to-back 10-plus win seasons in 2017 and 2018.  But the Black Knights look like they’re back to being a team that can challenge for double-digit wins again in 2020.

Indeed, Army is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season beating Middle Tennessee 42-0 as 3.5-point favorites and LA Monroe 37-7 as 24-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 44.5 points in their first two games.  It’s taking the oddsmakers too long to catch on to how good this team is, and we’re getting value with them again this week as 13.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati came in among the favorites to win the AAC this season after winning 11 games each of the past two seasons.  You are getting no discounts to back the Bearcats this season.  And they weren’t exactly a team that blew out their opposition on the regular last season.  Indeed, they went 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less to pad their record last year.

The Bearcats failed to cover as 39.5-point favorites in their opener against lowly Austin Peay in a 55-20 win.  Austin Peay moved the ball just fine on this Cincinnati defense, finishing with 353 total yards, which is pretty good for a poor FCS program.

Cincinnati didn’t play a triple-option team last year and won’t be prepared for Army in just a week’s time after beating Austin Peay last week.  Army has two weeks to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on September 12th.  That’s a huge advantage for the Black Knights, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bearcats.

Jeff Monken is 15-6 ATS in road games after playing a home game as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Army Saturday.

15* Iowa State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Iowa State Cyclones after their fluky 14-31 loss to Louisiana as a 13-point favorite in the opener.  The Cyclones gave up two special teams touchdowns and a TD in the final minute to make the score look way worse than it really was.

I still believe the Cyclones can contend for the Big 12 title with the talent they have on hand.  They just have a way of playing to their competition.  And they probably read the press clippings and thought they were better than they were in Week 1.

You know head coach Matt Campbell will have his team humbled with two weeks of practice to get ready for this game after playing Louisiana on September 12th.  And just having that game under their belt is a big advantage compared to TCU, which still has yet to play a game.

After winning eight games one time in 37 years before Campbell took over, the Cyclones have now had three straight eight-plus win seasons.  They were second in the Big 12 in yards per game differential (+62.6) last year and they returned 13 starters from that team.  They have eight starters back on D and may have the best stop unit in the Big 12.  And offensively they have almost all of their top weapons back led by QB Purdy and RB Hall.

TCU went just 5-7 last season, which included a 24-49 loss at Iowa State.  The Horned Frogs aren’t going to be a whole lot better in 2020 with just 12 starters back.  Starting QB Max Duggan isn’t going to start due to heart problems and it’s unclear how much he’ll play, if he plays at all.

Plays on road teams (Iowa State) - in the first month of a season, a bowl team from last season that lost their final two games, a game between two teams with five or less offensive starters returning are 32-8 (80%) since 1992.  These teams are close to even defensively, but the Cyclones have the huge advantage on offense.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +27

East Carolina went just 4-8 in Mike Houston’s first season on the job.  But they almost upset both Cincinnati and SMU, two teams that won double-digit games last year.  And they played UCF tough, only losing 28-41 as 35-point road underdogs.  

Now ECU is catching 27 points in the rematch, and the Pirates are going to be much better in Houston’s second season on the job.  He welcomes back eight starters on offense including the underrated Holton Ahlers at quarterback.  He has three receivers back that all had 670-plus receiving yards last season.  Ahlers is a dual-threat who rushed for 359 yards and six scores last year.  This offense is going to be good, plus five of the top six tacklers return on defense.

UCF had 10 players opt out of playing for personal reasons this season.  They also have another five players that are out or questionable with an injury.  They aren’t going to be strong enough to put away ECU by four-plus touchdowns, which is what it’s going to take to cover this huge spread.

The Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  UCF is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3

The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season.  But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes.  They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week.  And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.

The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS.  They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee.  Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.

The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role.  They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.

Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Take the Dolphins Thursday.

20* UAB/South Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on South Alabama +7

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  I also cashed in South Alabama +10 in a 24-27 loss to Tulane in which they blew a big lead two weeks ago.  And now the Jaguars are catching 7 points against UAB and I believe it’s too much as this team doesn’t get the respect they deserve.

I did like QB Desmond Trotter, who played well at the end of last year and to start this year. But Campbell clearly sees something great in Chance Lovertich, who replaced Trotter against Tulane and went 18-of-29 passing for 247 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  So I trust his decision here to start him.

UAB struggled to put away FCS Central Arkansas in a 35-45 win as 21.5-point favorites in their opener.  The Blazers also lost 14-31 at Miami and failed to cover as 15.5-point dogs.  Bill Clark is doing a good job at UAB, but the secret is out on this team, and they’ve gone from being undervalued in recent seasons to overvalued in 2020.  And now they’ve lost starting QB Tyler Johnson III to a shoulder injury.  Redshirt freshman Bryce Lucero will get the start, and he went just 4-of-12 for 55 yards in relief against Miami.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  South Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5

The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden.  He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency.  The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.

They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites.  The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth.  I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.

New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week.  The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference.  Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury.  He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight.  They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright.  Bet the Raiders Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7

I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.  It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0.  But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17.  They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.

I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line.  They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles.  Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.  

They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game.  They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards.  And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.

The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers.  That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center.  Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins.  That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.

Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him.  Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions.  So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons.  Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached.  So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win.  Washington will give Arizona a run for its money.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105

This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1.  The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing.  That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.

The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1.  They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most.  I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback.  Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times.  The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em.  I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game.  The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.

Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week.  The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company.  Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.

Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2.  This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2.  That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front.  They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins.  But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen.  RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.

The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles.  Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles.  Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5

The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week.  They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win.  They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown.  But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.

The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter.  I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season.  But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.

This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense.  There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season.  So we are going to grab these points this week.  

And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks.  The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside.  He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.

The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons.  New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years.  Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent.  The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents.  The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Miami/Louisville ABC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  He proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players from last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

I cashed in Louisville -11.5 over Western Kentucky last week and I’m back on them again this week.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 35-21 final score would indicate.  The Cardinals jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead and only scored seven more points after intermission.  They outgained Western Kentucky 487 to 248, or by 239 total yards, so they obviously should have won by more.

I think the fact that Louisville barely covered last week is why were are getting them at such great value this week.  They are only 2.5-point favorites over Miami at home.  And you know the Cardinals haven’t forgotten their 27-52 loss at Miami last year in one of the most misleading finals of the season.

They are going to want some revenge after Louisville outgained Miami 496 to 449 in that contest, but found a way to lose by 25 points due to losing the turnover battle 3-0.  Look for a role reversal this season.  The Cardinals will win the box score and the scoreboard this time around because they are night and day better than they were last year.

The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.  The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +23.5

Tulsa was way better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year.  The Golden Hurricane faced a brutal schedule that featured nine bowl teams.  And despite their 2-6 record in the tough AAC, they actually outgained their opponents by 45 yards per game.

Tulsa beat UCF outright as 17-point underdogs.  They lost to Memphis by 1 as 10-point dogs and missed a 29-yard field goal with no time left on the clock that would have won the game.  Memphis and UCF were two of the better teams in the country last year.  And Tulsa only lost one game by more than 21 points last season.

The Golden Hurricane played Oklahoma State last year and actually took a 21-20 lead into halftime over the Cowboys.  They did get shut out 20-0 after intermission, but still only lost by 19.  Now they are catching 23.5 points in the rematch this year, and I think it’s too much.

Tulsa brings back nine starters on offense.  That includes stud QB Zach Smith and his top two receivers, who combined for 1,817 yards last year.  They also bring back 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.  Four of their five starters are back along the offensive line.

I think Oklahoma State is getting too much hype this season with 17 starters back.  I just don’t believe in QB Spencer Sanders, who is too turnover-prone and had just a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  Ten of their starters are back on defense from a unit that gave up 412 yards per game last year.

Tulsa is going to be able to score with Oklahoma State, so it will never be out of this game. And we’ve seen how poor the Big 12 has looked early in the season.  Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas all got upset by Sun Belt teams last week.  And Texas Tech nearly lost to Houston Baptist as a 40-point favorite.

Oklahoma State will be good this year, I just don’t think they are 24-plus points better than Tulsa, which is what they’d need to be to cover this spread.  That’s a Tulsa team they trailed at halftime last year.

Plays against any team (Oklahoma State) - an excellent offense from last year that average 6.1 or more yards per play, with four-plus more starters returning than their opponent, in the first two weeks of the season are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Philip Montgomery is 20-10 ATS in all road games as the coach Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricanee are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +16

Louisiana-Lafeyette is in a massive letdown spot already early in the season.  The Rajin’ Cajuns just went not he road and beat Iowa State 31-14 as 13-point underdogs last week in one of the most misleading final scores of the early season.

Indeed, Louisiana was actually outgained by 31 yards by Iowa State.  The Cyclones held the Rajin’ Cajuns to just 272 total yards.  But the difference in the game was on special teams as Louisiana returned two kicks for touchdowns.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 in that game.

Now Louisiana comes back as more than two-touchdown favorites on the road against Georgia State this week.  There’s no chance the Rajin’ Cajuns will be as amped up for this game as they were for Iowa State.  And I fully expect them to find themselves in more of a dog fight than they bargained for.

A big reason the Rajin’ Cajuns struggled to move the ball against Iowa State is because they are lacking weapons at receiver.  They are without their top three receivers from last year.  J’Marcus Bradley and Jarrod Jackson graduated, and Jamal Bell is out with injury.  I don’t expect Louisiana to have nearly as explosive of an offense this year as they did last year, which is going to make it difficult for them to cover these bigger spreads in the Sun Belt.

Georgia State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt.  The Panthers went 7-6 last year and made their third bowl game in five seasons.  Shawn Elliott is doing a heck of a job with the program as he enters his fourth season with his best team yet.  I say that because Georgia State returns its most starters (16) of his tenure and he has all of his players in place now.

The offense welcomes back eight starters.  They have four starters back on the offensive line and each of their top three receivers return.  They do have to replace their QB and RB, but I like junior RB Destin Coates, who averaged 6.7 yards per carry last year with 546 yards and seven touchdowns and was their most explosive back.  The defense has eight starters and 10 of the top 12 tacklers back, so this should be Elliott’s best stop unit yet.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6

The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered.  They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL.  And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.

Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference.  The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed.  He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.

The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win.  And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss.  I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company.  The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.

The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance.  They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.  Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception.  He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt  in the loss.

More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries.  They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson.  All three will be out once again on a short week this week.  Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game.  Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable.  They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.

A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings.  They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs.  They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313.  Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.

The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games.  The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall.  Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss.  The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job.  They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.

The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too.  Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season.  He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft.  They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year.  And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years.  He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.

While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength.  Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it.  They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.

The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game.  He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball.  That’s a huge advantage.  They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.

The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year.  They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road.  They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.

The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs.  But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1.  As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player.  They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.  

Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney.  Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured.  Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list.  Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th.  Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.

Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos.  Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year.  You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.

Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee.  Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points.  Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year.  They are kind of the forgotten team.  They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.

But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance.  They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.

Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year.  Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year.  And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.

The Cowboys’ situation is much worse.  They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system.  And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.

The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They failed to address needs on this side of the ball.  They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year.  They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.  

Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL.  They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues.  Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones.  The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins +6.5

The Washington Redskins come into the 2020 season undervalued off a 3-13 campaign last year.  Ron Rivera takes over and enters his 10th season as a head coach.  I think he is still one of the better coaches in the NFL as his players always respect and play hard for him.

The Redskins were terrible through the first 10 games last year, but they got much better down the stretch.  They went 2-4 in their last six games, but they were competitive in losses to the Packers (by 5), Eagles (by 10) and Giants (OT).  Their only blowout loss came in Week 17 to the Cowboys.

Dwayne Haskins got some valuable playing time down the stretch and should be ready for a breakout sophomore season at quarterback.  The Redskins are going to have an offense similar to that of the Ravens that is going to be tough for opposing defenses to deal with.

Defensively, they drafted Chase Allen, arguably the best player in the draft.  And now they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.  Young joins a unit that already includes four first-round picks in Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat.  We’ve seen in the NFL that having a dominant defensive line is the most important position group there is.

The Eagles had 10 of their 16 games last year decided by one score.  So that fact alone says there’s value here with the Redskins catching nearly a full touchdown.  The Eagles lose a ton of key pieces in S Jenkins, CB Darby, DT Jernigan, T Peters and WR Agholor, and their secondary is still a problem.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5

The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year.  They really came on strong in the second half.  Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.

That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage.  And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.

The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy.  Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco.  The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.

No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense.  And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse.  They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -11.5

The Louisville Cardinals were one of the most improved teams in the country last year.  They went from 2-10 in 2018 to 8-5 in 2019 under first-year head coach Scott Satterfield.  The proved his worth at Appalachian State before this and now he’s doing the same at Louisville.

Satterfield welcomes back 16 returning starters this year as this is one of the most experienced teams in the ACC and they’ll be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.  The offense is loaded with eight starters back from a unit that put up 33.1 points and 447 yards per game last year.

The key here offensively is that the Cardinals bring back all of their top skill players last year, so the chemistry will be good early.  QB Micale Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for 482 yards and six scores.  He has each for his top two receivers back in Tutu Atwell (70 receptions, 1,276 yards, 12 TD) and Dez Fitzpatrick (35, 635, 6 TD).  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 yards, 9 TD, 5.8 YPC) is back as well.

The Cardinals should see even bigger improvement defensively this year.  They gave up 33.4 points and 440 yards per game last year after giving up 44.1 points and 484 yards per game in their disastrous 2018 campaign.  The Cardinals welcome back eight starters on defense, including seven of the top eight tacklers.  In fact, the Cardinals are expected to start eight starters and three juniors on defense, so this is a veteran unit now.

Western Kentucky is definitely no slouch.  The Hilltoppers also had a huge improvement last year going from 3-9 in 2018 to 9-4 in 2019 in Tyson Helton’s first season.  Give them credit, but it came against a very soft schedule, and they even lost to Central Arkansas.  They do have 16 starters back, but they lost starting QB Ty Storey and leading receiver Lucky Jackson.  Story completed 69.9% of his passes last year and Jackson had 94 receptions for 1,133 yards and four touchdowns.  Both are irreplaceable.

The Hilltoppers will starter Tyrrell Pigrome at quarterback.  He’s a transfer from Maryland that only completed 57% of his passes with a 9-to-10 TD/INT ratio in his four years with the Terrapins.  He is a huge downgrade.  The defense will be good again, but the offense will be way behind where it was last year, and it wasn’t even all that good last year in averaging just 25.4 points per game.

Louisville beat Western Kentucky 38-21 last year and outgained the Hilltoppers by 127 yards.  I think the Cardinals are better this year than last, while the Hilltoppers are worse off.  So another 17-plus point victory can be expected.  Plus, Louisville got in seven spring practices, while WKU didn’t have a single spring practice.  So the Cardinals had the leg up going into fall camp.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Louisville) - a great offense from last year that average 6.4 or more yards per play, with an experienced QB returning as a starter are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons in the first month of the season.  The Cardinals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Alabama +10

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

I cashed on South Alabama +15 in a 32-21 outright win over Southern Miss as 15-point underdogs in their opener.  So I’m high on this team and will back them again here.  They dominated Southern Miss by racking up 526 total yards and outgaining them by 117 yards for the game.  So now the Jaguars have a game under their belts and eight days off to get ready for Tulane.

No question Tulane is a quality team under Willie Fritz.  He has done a good job here improving Tulane from four to five to seven and seven wins in his first four seasons, respectively.  I just don’t think the Green Wave should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers in the opener.

Tulane only returns 12 starters this year and loses all of its top playmakers from an offense that was Fritz’s best yet last year, averaging 33.1 points and 449 yards per game.  They lose QB Justin McMillan, their top two receivers in Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey, and their top two running backs.  McMillan is a big loss as he also led the team in rushing with 745 yards and 12 TD on the ground.  

The replacement is likely to be Southern Miss transfer Keon Howard, who only completed 54% of his passes with a 9-to-9 TD/INT ratio in his two years there.  Tulane will have a solid defense with seven starters back, but the offense is going to struggle to find chemistry in their first game with all these new faces with only five starters back.

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  They are flying under the radar again this week.  Roll with South Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +13

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have delivered nine straight winning seasons.  They have done so under seventh-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has stabilized the program. Now the Red Wolves returned 15 starters this year and the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.

Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio last year before suffering a season-ending injury after four games.  Layne Hatcher took over and played admirably the rest of the way, finishing with a 27-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Both guys split reps in their opener against Memphis.

Arkansas State only lost 24-37 to Memphis as an 18-point underdog.  That’s a Memphis team that won a school record 12 games last year and is loaded once again this year.  The Red Wolves even committed three turnovers in that game and failed to recover an onside kick when they were trailing by 4, which turned the tide of the game.  Memphis only outgained them by 86 yards.

I like that Arkansas State has a game under its belt now against an opponent that is better than the Kansas State team they will be playing on Saturday.  Plus, it’s worth noting that the Red Wolves had 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got a head start going into fall camp.  Kansas State had zero spring practices.

Chris Klieman inherited 14 returning starters last year and led the Wildcats to a surprising 8-5 campaign that included an upset win over Oklahoma.  But the Wildcats only have nine starters back this year and will clearly be one of the worst teams in the Big 12.

The Wildcats lose all five starters along the offensive line as they were all seniors last year.  I love betting against inexperienced offensive lines early in the season.  It will create continuity problems for Kansas State, which only has three starters back in all on offense.  They also lose their leading receiver and rusher.  

The Wildcats will have a solid defense, but I just don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to put Arkansas State away by two-plus touchdowns, let alone win the game outright.  Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Arkansas State Saturday.

15* Texans/Chiefs 2020 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City -9

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs bring back pretty much everyone from last year’s team and have a legitimate shot to defend their crown.  They gave Patrick Mahomes the big contract he deserved and he has all his weapons back, plus they drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in the first round.  Their offense will be as explosive as any in the NFL again.

Defensively, the Chiefs held their own last year in giving up just 19.2 points per game, which was the 7th-best mark in the league.  They were 11th in sacks (45) and 5th in interceptions (16).  And they really didn’t lose anyone of significance defensively with 11 starters back.  The only loss is CB Kendall Fuller, who only started four games for the Chiefs last year.

I just don’t like what Bill O’Brien is doing with the Texans.  The trade of DeAndre Hopkins was the worst trade of the offseason.  They got a washed up running back in David Johnson in return.  And the offense is now severely lacking playmakers, especially if Brandon Cooks is unable to go with a quad injury tonight.  He is listed as questionable.

While I do think Houston’s offense will be serviceable this year, the defense is going to be atrocious.  The Texans finished 28th in total defense, 29th in passing defense and 25th in rushing defense last year.  They didn’t do much to address their defense at all, and getting stops will be a problem again, which isn’t good news when facing the Chiefs.

We saw that last year in the playoffs as the Chiefs erased a 24-0 deficit with ease in the playoffs and ended up taking a 28-24 lead into halftime.  They went on to win 51-31 as they moved the ball and scored points at will on Houston’s defense.  And that was even with J.J. Watt returning from injury in time for the playoffs.  There was little he or any other Texan could do to slow down Mahomes and company.

Kansas City went 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS last year.  They really have no problem winning by double-digits as 10 of their 15 wins last year came by 10 points or more.  I think we see another here to open the 2020 season.  Roll with the Chiefs Thursday.

15* UAB/Miami CFB ANNIHILATOR on UAB +14.5

What Bill Clark has done at UAB has been remarkable.  He took a team that didn’t even play football for two years to a bowl game in 2017.  Then in 2018 the Blazers won the Conference USA title.

Last year, the Blazers only brought back seven starters and still started 9-3 and made the C-USA title game again.  They would go on to lose to FAU and Appalachian State, but it was still a great season with such little experience.

Now the Blazers are one of the most experienced teams in the country again with 18 returning starters and should make the C-USA title game for the 3rd consecutive season.  They are the favorites to win the conference, and for good reason.

UAB opened its season with a 45-35 victory over Central Arkansas as 19-point favorites.  But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed.  UAB outgained Central Arkansas 459-293 for the game.  Central Arkansas scored one TD on a fumble recovery, and it was a 45-21 game before UAB pulled its starters, and they allowed two touchdowns in the final six minutes of garbage time.

Miami is a team that is hard to trust laying these kind of points.  They showed that last year when they went 6-7 and were upset by two fellow Conference USA teams of UAB.  They lost 24-30 to FIU as 20-point favorites and went on to lose 14-0 to Louisiana Tech as 7-point favorites in the Independence Bowl.  UAB is better this year than both FIU and LA Tech were last year.

I know the Hurricanes have a great transfer QB in D’Eriq King coming in from Houston.  He’s one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country, and it was about time they found a signal caller after averaging just 25.7 points per game last year.  But King won’t be hitting on all cylinders in his first game, and I like the fact that UAB has a game under its belt already, which is a huge advantage.

The Hurricanes have consistently had a great defense the last three years, giving up 21 points per game in 2017, 19.5 in 2018 and 20.2 in 2019.  But the gains they make up with King on offense could be made up for what they lose on defense.  The Hurricanes only return five starters on D and lose five of their top seven tackles, including Shaquille QAuarterman and Michael Pinckney.  Miami will certainly take a step back defensively in 2020.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* BYU/Navy ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Navy +1.5

Navy is coming off a huge bounce-back season.  After going 3-10 in 2018 in only the 2nd losing season ever for head coach Ken Niumatalolo, the Midshipmen put together an 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded with a win over Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.  Their only two losses came to Memphis and Notre Dame.

Now the Midshipmen have the most returning starters (13) that they’ve had since 2014.  While they do have to replace QB Malcolm Perry, the offense always functions at a high level no matter who is under center in the triple-option.  And the defense should be great again with seven returning starters from a unit that gave up just 22.3 points and 314 yards per game last year.

BYU has 14 returning starters from a 7-6 team that lost to Hawaii in their bowl last year.  The Cougars are still a tough out every time they take the field.  And I do think they’ll have a solid defense with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 25.5 points and 394 yards per game, but I would take Navy’s defense over theirs.

Offensively, the Cougars do get a healthy Zach Wilson back at QB and return everyone on the offensive line.  My problem with their offense is that they lose each of their top four receivers from last year, so there could be some chemistry issues with Wilson and company early on.  The big blow was when potential All-American TE Matt Bushman (47 receptions, 688 yards, 4 TD 2019) suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in camp.

BYU is 0-7 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Navy is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Midshipmen are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Take Navy Monday.

20* Arkansas State/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas State +19

The Arkansas State Red Wolves now have nine consecutive winning seasons and have been the model of consistency in the Sun Belt.  Of course, having a 7th-year head coach like Blake Anderson has helped stabilize the program, and he just got an extension through 2023 for good reason.

Now Arkansas State returns 15 starters and has the best QB situation in the Sun Belt.  Logan Bonner had a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio before suffering a season-ending injury after four starts and Layne Hatcher took over and finished with 65.8% completions and a 27-to-10 ratio.  Bonner is expected to start the opener, but they’re in good hands if anything happens to him. And nine starters in all return offensively.

There’s a little too much hype surrounding Memphis heading into 2020 after winning the most games (12) in program history last year and making the Cotton Bowl against Penn State.  But they were fortunate in close games last year going 4-1 in games decided by a TD or less.

While Memphis will be good again with 14 returning starters including QB Brady White, I simply believe they are being overvalued here.  And they lost their head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  New head coach Ryan Silverfield coached the Tigers in their 39-53 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.  So there is some continuity with them, I just think it has to be a step down from Norvell.

Arkansas State did get to play another team from the AAC last year in SMU.  Their 30-37 loss to the Mustangs aged well as SMU went on to have a 10-3 season and nearly beat Memphis on the road last year.  And that was an inexperienced Arkansas State team with just 12 returning starters in their season opener at the time.  I believe they’ll be able to hang with Memphis.

It’s also worth noting that Arkansas State got in 11 spring practices and two scrimmages, so they got in more practice than most heading into the fall.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* USA/USM 2020 College Football Season Opener on South Alabama +15

South Alabama enters Year 3 under current head coach Steve Campbell.  It’s Year 3 where coaches/teams make their biggest improvements usually, and I certainly see that being the case for the Jaguars.  They would be double-digit favorites over the South Alabama teams of 2018 and 2019 this year.

The Jaguars return 15 starters this season.  The offense is loaded with eight returning starters and a lot of talent at the skill positions.  QB Desmond Trotter took over after eight games last year as a redshirt freshman.  He impressed by throwing for 820 yards on 57.7% completions with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

It’s no coincidence the Jaguars went 3-1 ATS with Trotter as their QB down the stretch.  They only lost by 28-30 to Texas State as 7-point dogs and missed a 28-yard field goal to win it.  They outgunned Louisiana 467-391 in a 27-37 loss as 27-point dogs.  They did lose 15-28 at Georgia State as 9-point dogs, but stuck with it and upset Arkansas State 34-30 as 11-point dogs in their season finale.

Trotter is now a sophomore and should continue making big improvements.  He has all of his top receivers back.  Campbell has brought in eight JUCO’s including three from national champion Mississippi Gulf Coast, where Campbell used to coach.  And the defense returns seven starters and five of its top six tacklers from last year.

Certainly Southern Miss has done a good job under Jay Hopson as he has coached them to a winning record in each of his four seasons on the job.  But they’ve been barely over a .500 team each year finishing with one more win than loss in three of four years.  And I don’t think they should be two-touchdown favorites out of the gate here against what will be a vastly improved South Alabama team.

Southern Miss does have a good defense that gave up 26.2 points per game last year and six starters back on that side of the ball.  But the offense just isn’t explosive enough, averaging just 26.6 points per game last year.  So even thought they get QB Jack Abraham back this year, he only had a 19-to-15 TD/INT ratio last year and makes too many mistakes for my liking.  Plus, he loses his top receiver from last year in Quez Watkins (64 receptions, 1,178 yards, 6 TD).

South Alabama went on the road in its opener last year and gave Nebraska all it wanted in a 21-35 loss as 35-point dogs.  The Jaguars actually outgained the Huskers 314-276 in that game but gave up three non-offensive touchdowns, which was the difference.  They can certainly compete with Southern Miss on the road in the 2020 opener.  Bet South Alabama Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5 

Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl.  And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers are simply the more complete team.  The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season.  The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season.  They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team.  And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.

The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll.  But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs.  And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup. 

The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round.  Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted.  The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers. 

Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers.  They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans.  But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do. 

The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs.  The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points.  I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense. 

While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season.  They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens.  Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively. 

That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers.  The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers.  They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season. 

The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor.  The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season.  The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry.  The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco. 

So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game.  They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt.  Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead. 

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.

Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54

#10 - Jimmy G UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season.  He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game.  And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game. 

#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130) 

Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall.  Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl.  Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert. 

#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110) 

Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season.  He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes. 

#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150) 

Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season.  He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games.  Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible.  I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run. 

#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110) 

Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed.  That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl.  But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles.  Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games 

#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125) 

I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet.  But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game.  UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2) 

#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220) 

We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it.  Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game.  He has made 26 starts under Shanahan.  He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games.  That’s an 81% completion percentage.  Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220. 

#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100) 

Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game.  And the numbers bear it out, too.  Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games.  He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games.  And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game. 

#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans.  The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more.  The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense.  That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB.  SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season.  But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson.  Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt.  He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games.  That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards.  But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER. 

#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155) 

This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet.  There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price.  The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters.  The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters.  And we’ve seen that in the playoffs.  They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games. 

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7 

I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL.  No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied.  They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game.  That’s how close they are to being 17-0. 

The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense.  The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.  The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game. 

The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively.  Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation.  And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries.  That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards.  They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers. 

After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season.  They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards.  They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards.  No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game. 

Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically.  The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season.  The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game.  They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games.  Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close. 

I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense.  The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run.  They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season.  The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game.  Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks.  Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week. 

The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year.  The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway.  They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday. 

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7 

I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens.  It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently.  The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship. 

The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close.  That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans.  They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites.  Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston.  So I think there’s some value here. 

Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week.  They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12.  That is a complete fluke.  Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times.  That’s essentially seven turnovers.  It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL. 

Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either.  The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game.  And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury.  If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout. 

Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern.  But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor.  This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score.  And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score.  Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week. 

The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game.  The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either.  They will be playing their 4th straight road game.  The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS.  And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better.  A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick.  And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games.  It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!

20* Clemson/LSU National Championship No-Brainer on LSU -5.5 

I’ve never seen a more impressive team than LSU in college football history. I’ve been riding them all season and I’m not about to back off now.  I fully expect LSU to make easy work of Clemson here. 

Joe Burrow won the Heisman and is as good as any quarterback in college football that I can remember.  He threw seven touchdowns in the first half against Oklahoma.  He is in charge of a record-breaking LSU offense that averages 48.9 points and 564.1 yards per game this season.  And it has come against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country. 

LSU doubters aren’t impressed with their defense, but the only games they gave up big points and yardage totals were games they were in control of and simply let up.  But this LSU defense is playing tremendous down the stretch, giving up just 4.1 yards per play in their last four games overall.  They beat Texas A&M 50-7, Georgia 37-10 and Oklahoma 63-28.  The Sooners didn’t do anything offensively until garbage time in the 2nd half. 

It just shows me that when LSU is locked in, they can shut down anyone defensively.  And Clemson was extremely fortunate to beat Ohio State last week as the refs basically gave them that game.  And while LSU has played the 7th-toughest schedule, Clemson has payed the 56th-toughest.  A common opponent is Texas A&M.  Clemson beat Texas A&M 24-10 at home, while LSU beat the Aggies 50-7 at home. 

It’s safe to say that Clemson’s defense hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent as LSU, and certainly not many good passing attacks this season with their easy schedule.  So I’d say it’s a bad sign of things to come for Clemson considering they gave up 320 passing yards to Ohio State and 283 to Virginia in their last two games coming in. 

Ed Orgeron is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of LSU.  LSU is 7-0 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more yards this season.  LSU is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  LSU will go down as one of the best teams in college football history when they throttle Clemson in the National Championship Game.  Bet LSU Monday. 

20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4 

The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week.  They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way.  And they still had to hang on for dear life. 

The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week.  They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week.  Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye. 

Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now.  They could be without three starting offensive linemen.  They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati.  And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable.  Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points. 

Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers.  And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch.  Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination. 

This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed.  The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report.  Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense. 

Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson.  The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson.  And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay.  Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion.  Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points. 

The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less.  Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons.  The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins.  The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss.  Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks.  Roll with the Packers Sunday. 

15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10 

The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season.  A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback.  Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill. 

Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season.  Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch. 

The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games.  Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season.  And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry.  Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season. 

Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them.  The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed.  They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season.  Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson. 

I like that the Titans are battle-tested.  They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee.  And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win. 

The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16.  And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers.  They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively.  Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down. 

Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace.  That favors the double-digit underdog here.  I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game.  The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5 

The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone.  They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4.  This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed. 

It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months.  They are expected to get back some key players on defense.  LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17.  When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of. 

Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings.  They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday.  Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week.  Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara. 

Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too.  Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.  With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is.  And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints.  They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable.  And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week. 

The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now.  They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game.  The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders.  They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game.  They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier. 

Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home.  The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers.  They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot.  Bet the 49ers Saturday. 

20* Miami Ohio/LA-Lafayette Lending Tree Bowl No-Brainer on Miami Ohio +14 

The Miami Ohio Redhawks just won the MAC Championship by upsetting Central Michigan in the title game as underdogs.  And now head coach Chuck Martin gets to play the disrespect card again with this team in the Lending Tree Bowl as 14-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Miami Ohio played the tougher schedule than Louisiana and certainly isn’t 14 points worse in my book.  They aren’t a flashy team with an average offense that doesn’t blow you away.  But they do two things that are more important, which is play defense and get great plays from special teams.  They have a Top 5 special teams unit in the country.  And their defense has been solid in giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season. 

Lafayette is the flashy team with the explosive offense that puts up 38.8 points per game.  But I question their motivation in this game.  They just lost to Appalachian State by 7 points for a second straight year in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  That was their Super Bowl, while this will be just another game for them.  They know they are heavy favorites and expected to win, so I question their motivation because of it. 

It’s only the 2nd bowl game in 9 seasons for the Redhawks, so they are obviously excited to be here.  They nearly upset Mississippi State in 2016 as 14-point underdogs in a 16-17 defeat in their last bowl game. 

Chuck Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  The Redhawks are 11-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as an underdog.  Bet Miami Ohio Monday. 

25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 

I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch.  I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief.  I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons. 

The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable.  Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks.  He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career.  The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5.  They are complete frauds. 

The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs.  That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game.  And they came up just inches short.  It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that. 

The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs.  That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive.  They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards.  And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards. 

Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense.  They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson.  And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back. 

A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too.  They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels.  And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street.  They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended. 

It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers.  They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season.  And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line. 

The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either.  Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing.  And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers.  I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around. 

The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog.  Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Eagles Sunday. 

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5 

The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl.  Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less.  I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week. 

The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more.  They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers. 

Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career.  This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch.  They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company. 

I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense.  It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season.  He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks.  Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles. 

A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%.  And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self.  Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable. 

The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24.  It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.   

Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005.  The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Saints Sunday.

Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually. 

15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5 

It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past.  They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line.  That never used to happen.  And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami. 

It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for.  The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over.  Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt. 

Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year.  The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch.  The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven.  This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it. 

New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL.  They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall.  And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week.  I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball. 

Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year.  The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games.  The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.  The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL. 

Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival.  The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins.  I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week.  There’s value here on the road underdog.  Take the Titans Saturday. 

15* Tulane/Southern Miss Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane -7 

I believe the Tulane Green Wave will be highly motivated for a victory in the Lending Tree Bowl.  They lost three straight and five of their final six to fall to 6-6 on the season.  They want to end the season with a winning record, and I love betting on 6-6 teams in bowl season because of that reason. 

Keep in mind that Tulane’s losses down the stretch came against a brutal schedule.  They suffered road losses to Memphis, Navy, Temple and SMU as well as a 3-point home loss to UCF.  That’s four 10-win teams and a Temple team that was very tough to beat at home all season. 

With that schedule, it’s no surprised that Tulane played the tougher slate of these tewo teams.  Their schedule ranked 38 spots harder than Southern Miss.  It’s a Golden Eagles team that had a chance to play in the C-USA title game late in the season.  But they lost their final two games in blowout fashion.  They lost by 18 at home to Western Kentucky as 3-point favorites.  They also lost by 17 at Florida Atlantic as 9-point dogs. 

Southern Miss only beat one bowl team all season, and that was a bad UAB team that lost their starting QB to injury early in the game.  The other six wins came against Alcorn State, Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice and UTSA.  Basically every time they stepped up in class they lost as the five losses all came by 15 points or more. 

Tulane had some impressive stats for a 6-6 team.  The Green Wave averaged 33.3 points and 455.2 yards per game while giving up 27.4 points and 378.5 yards per game.  They outgained their opposition by 76.7 yards per game on the season, which is impressive when you consider how difficult their schedule was. 

Willie Fritz is 27-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.  Tulane is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  The Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. C-USA opponents.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Tulane Saturday.