20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Chattanooga/UC-Irvine NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on Chattanooga +5

Chattanooga is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NIT with 4 outright wins as underdogs.  What more do the Mocs need to do to get some respect? Now they are 5-point underdogs to UC-Irvine in the NIT Championship Game, and I fully expect them to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

While Chattanooga had to play 3 of its 4 games on the road to get here, UC-Irvine benefitted from getting 3 home games to make the semifinals.  And it couldn't have been a much easier schedule with unimpressive wins over Northern Colorado by 10, Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB by 4.  And the Anteaters were fortunate to get a big comeback to beat North Texas by 2 in the semifinals.  So the only team they beat by more than this 5-point margin was Northern Colorado, which ranks 125th in Kenpom.

So UC-Irvine's 4 wins have come by a total of 21 points despite being favored in every game except being 1-point dogs to North Texas.  Chattanooga's 4 wins have come by a total of 30 points despite being an underdog in all 4 contests.  Bet Chattanooga Thursday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament.  The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64.  They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32.  The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out.  The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions.  That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions.  Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout.  This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus.  Bet Auburn Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season.  The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor.  While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range.  That was the difference.  Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective.  Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings.  Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor.  The value is clearly on the Vols tonight.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Maryland/Florida West Region ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +6.5

Maryland is 27-8 this season with all eight losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they haven't lost a single game all season by more than 6 points, making for a 35-0 system backing the Terrapins pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.

The Terrapins finally got some good fortune to go their way in close games with a buzzer-beater 72-71 win over Colorado State.  I think the betting public is looking at that as a poor result, but I've been riding Colorado State this entire time during their 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS run to close out the season.  The Rams are much better than they get credit for.

The more concerning result was Florida escaping with a 77-75 win over UConn as 9-point favorites last round.  The Gators failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games, and you're paying a tax to back them still after winning the SEC Tournament.

I like the fact that Maryland played in Seattle last round and decided to stay out West instead of flying back to Baltimore.  The Terrapins have had some bonding time in San Francisco prior to this game.  The tougher travel spot is Florida, which played in North Carolina on Sunday and now has to fly clear out West to San Francisco for this one.  That's a lot of travel in a short amount of time, and I don't think the Gators will be nearly as fresh or prepared as the Terrapins will be tonight as a result.  Bet Maryland Thursday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +8.5

Drake is 31-3 this season with all 3 losses by 7 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, making for a 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  They drug Missouri into the mud on Thursday and forced the Tigers to play their game even though Missouri likes to play up-tempo.  Drake won 67-57 as 6-point underdogs despite a huge FT discrepancy in favor of Missouri.  The Tigers went 23-of-26 from the FT line while the Bulldogs went just 12-of-24.

I am a big fan of Texas Tech when the Red Raiders are fully healthy, but that's just not the case right now.  Two of their top three players are banged up.  Darion Williams (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) returned from injury against UNC-Wilmington and went just 5-of-15 from the floor.  He still looked hobbled.  Chance McMillian (13.7 PPG, 43.4% 3-pointers) did not return and they desperately miss his shooting and scoring.

I was not impressed with Texas Tech on Thursday beating UNC-Wilmington 82-72 as 15-point favorites.  Wilmington only shot 7-of-26 (27%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 10.  I expect the Red Raiders to be life and death in the final seconds with Drake in this one whether or not McMillian returns.  Bet Drake Saturday.

15* Arkansas/St. John's Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -6.5

St. John's is 31-4 SU & 23-11 ATS this season and still one of the most underrated teams in the country. All four losses came by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 7 points, which shows just how close the Red Storm are to being 35-0.

St. John's is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch going 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Red Storm have put together four straight wins by 16 points or more which includes wins over Creighton and Marquette.

The strength of the Red Storm is defense as they rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They make you work for everything you get, and they suffocate teams in the 2H consistently running out of gas after intermission.  They make for a great tournament team because they are so difficult to prepare for.

John Calipari only has one day to prepare for St. John's, and I don't expect it to go well for him.  Rick Pitino is far and away the superior head coach here.  Arkansas has been fortunate in close games there of late with five of its last six wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  This is where their luck runs out.

Arkansas is without one of its best players in Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG) and he will be missed here.  We saw Kansas go zone on Arkansas in the 2H and they didn't know what they were doing against it.  I think Pitino will pull all the right strings here to make life difficult on the Razorbacks.

St. John's forced turnovers on 22% of opponents' possessions which ranks 22nd in the country.  Arkansas is prone to turning it over ranking 135th in turnover percentage.  The Red Storm will want it more here and win most of the loose balls while pulling away in the 2H once again.  They will also have a big home-court advantage with this game being played in Providence.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* Liberty/Oregon East Region No-Brainer on Oregon -5.5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 16-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the Round of 64.  Altmann always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have won 8 of their last 9 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon played the 19th-toughest schedule in the country this season while Liberty played the 198th-ranked schedule.  The Flames only played one NCAA Tournament team all season, which was McNeese State from the Southland.  They are a good shooting team, but I think they are getting too much respect here.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene and I expect the Ducks to have plenty of support there.  Bet Oregon Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +3.5

Since the First 4 started in 2011, 13 teams from the First 4 have advanced to the Round of 32.  At least one team has won a Round of 64 game in 12 of the last 14 years.  Xavier looks to be the most promising team to make a run if it's not UNC.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

I don't understand why Illinois continues to get so much respect.  The Fighting Illini are 8-8 SU & 7-8-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They only beat three NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch and two of those came at home.  

They lost by 23 to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, by 43 to Duke on a neutral, by 14 to Michigan State at home, by 21 to Maryland at home and by 21 to Wisconsin on the road.  They also were upset by Nebraska, USC and Rutgers during this stretch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Marquette -3.5

The Mountain West is now 26-55 ATS in their last 81 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out 95-68 by North Carolina on Tuesday and Utah State got blown out 72-47 by UCLA on Thursday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade New Mexico tonight.

The Lobos struggled down the stretch going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  THat includes two losses to Boise State and a 8-point loss to that same San Diego State team that got blown out by UNC.  They also narrowly escaped with a pair of 4-point wins over Wyoming and Nevada, two of the poor teams in the Mountain West.  And earlier this season they lost by 14 to St. John's, a fellow Big East opponent of Marquette.

I think the Golden Eagles come into the NCAA Tournament a little undervalued after losing three of their final four games including two losses to St. John's.  The other loss came on the road to UConn, while they also beat Xavier in the Big East Tournament, which was the only loss Xavier has suffered in its last nine games playing as well as anyone in the Big East.

Marquette is a very balanced team with very few weaknesses.  The Golden Eagles rank 31st in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  And while New Mexico is a solid defensive team, there is a glaring weakness for the Lobos on the other end as they rank just 85th in adjusted offense.  There will also be bit of a home-court advantage for Marquette with this game being played in Cleveland, Ohio.  Bet Marquette Friday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-San Diego +3.5

UC-San Diego won 30 games this season.  They are the best mid-major in the country outside of perhaps VCU.  I don't think they could have gotten a better 1st-round matchup than Michigan.

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines went 11-4 SU in their last 15 games despite a -20 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and now have the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  They are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The best part of UC-San Diego is turnovers, as they are 7th in turnover rate on offense and 2nd in turnover rate on defense with the best turnover differential in the entire country.  Michigan ranks just 328th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 265th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -5.5

The Mountain West is now 26-54 ATS in their last 80 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out by North Carolina on Tuesday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade Utah State Thursday night.

Utah State struggled away from home down the stretch going 2-6 ATS in its final eight road games.  That includes a 27-point loss at Colorado State and a 17-point loss at Boise State in their final two.  They also lost to Colorado State by 11 in the MWC Tournament.  Key role player Drake Allen (7.2 PPG) who is their top bench player is out for the season.

UCLA will benefited from playing in the Big Ten this season and playing a much more difficult schedule than they were used to in the Pac-12 before.  The Bruins are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are the much better defensive team, and their physicality will give this soft Utah State team fits for 40 minutes.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +6.5

The Missouri Tigers are one of the more vulnerable teams from the SEC.  They are limping into the NCAA Tournament going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their best player in Mark Mitchell is banged up as well.  Head coach Dennis Gates has just one NCAA Tournament win to his name.

Drake went 30-3 this season with the three losses coming by a combined 13 points.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  I think that will frustrate Missouri, which prefers to play a more up-tempo game.  

One big advantage for the Bulldogs is that they rank 17th in offensive rebounding rate grabbing 36% of their own misses.  Missouri ranks 300th allowing opponents to grab 32.2% of their misses.  That could easily be the difference in this game.  I trust McCollum over Gates to make the necessary adjustments, and I have the Bulldogs pulling off the upset here.  Bet Drake Thursday.

20* Arkansas/Kansas West Region No-Brainer on Arkansas +5.5

Arkansas really showed off its depth down the stretch without two of its best players in Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero who combined to average over 30 points per game.  This was actually one of John Calipari's better coaching jobs.

Arkansas went 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Razorbacks won three of their final four games with their lone loss coming to Ole Miss by 3 in the SEC Tournament.  Ole Miss was coming off a bye and had the rest advantage after Arkansas beat South Carolina the previous day.  Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.5 SPG) is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, so reinforcements are on the way.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the country right alongside Michigan.  The Jayhawks went just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.  They needed OT to beat UCF twice.  They have just one win against a NCAA Tournament team in their last 11 games.  I don't even think they should be favored here.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* NIT Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +3

San Jose State was one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  The Spartans went 22-9 ATS in all games, including 10-4 ATS in home games.  The only point of the season where they struggled was when they were injured, but they are fully healthy heading into the NIT.

San Jose State has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Spartans beat Fresno State 92-68 as 5.5-point home favorites in their regular season finale.  They went on to beat Wyoming 66-61 as a PK in the first round, and then covered against a rested New Mexico team in the MWC Tournament in a hard-fought 11-point loss as 15.5-point dogs.

Loyola-Chicago is in the worse spot here.  The Ramblers beat Saint Louis in their Atlantic 10 opener before a hard-fought 7-point loss to VCU.  They really felt like they had a chance to win the tournament, so they are disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  Now they have to travel clear out on the West Coast with just three days in between games since losing to VCU.

With a losing record on the season, no question San Jose State is relishing the opportunity to be playing in the NIT.  They get to host a game no less.  The Spartans have had the last five days off so they will have the rest and preparation advantage.  I trust in head coach Tim Miles to get his team ready to go, and I believe the wrong team is favored here.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

20* NIT DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +10.5

Handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  SMU feels like it should be in the NCAA Tournament and is disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  A 3-point loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament cost them a shot at making the NCAA Tournament.  They don't want to be here in the NIT.

Northern Iowa has known it will be going to the NIT since losing to Valparaiso on March 7th.  The Panthers have had nearly two weeks to get over that defeat and prepare for their NIT run.  I love them catching double-digits here as they were one of the most underrated teams in the MVC all season.

SMU went 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS in its final nine games to play its way out of the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset losses to Florida State and Wake Forest that really cost them.  The Mustangs have been poor in their last three home games losing by 11 to Wake Forest, by 10 to Clemson and only beating Syracuse by 2 as 13.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over Northern Iowa tonight.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Samford +7.5

The Samford Bulldogs are live underdogs Wednesday night in their NIT opener against George Mason.  This is a Bulldogs team that opened 19-7 before going 3-5 in their final eight games this season.  They were awesome in non-conference play with their only three losses coming against Cornell by 2, Michigan State by 8 and Arizona.  They beat some very good teams in Utah Valley, North Dakota State and North Alabama.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bulldogs.

But this is as much of a fade of George Mason as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Patriots.  They just played 3 games in 3 days from Friday through Sunday and lost in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game by 5 to VCU.  Their dreams of making the NCAA Tournament were crushed, and they won't be able to get back up off the mat in time here three days later to get motivated to beat Samford in the NIT consolation.

Meanwhile, Samford has been off since March 8th with 10 days in between games to get ready for this one.  The Bulldogs are happy to be playing in the NIT, and handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  The Patriots don't want to be here at all.  Bet Samford Wednesday.

15* UNC/San Diego State First Four ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3.5

North Carolina will be extra motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Almost everyone felt the Tar Heels shouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament due to their poor Quad 1 record.  However, they went 15-1 in Quad 2 games and they can handle a team like San Diego State.

North Carolina is the best of all the bubble teams in my opinion, certainly better than WVU, Indiana, Ohio State and Boise State who were all left out.  The Tar Heels earned their way by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their final 10 games with each of their last seven wins coming by 9 points or more.  Their two losses both came to Duke, and they took the Blue Devils to the wire in both games, and I have Duke as the best team in the country.

San Diego State is the fortunate team to be in the field.  The Aztecs went 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their final six games and were bounced in their first MWC game in a 10-point loss to Boise State.  The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2006 so this is one of the most overrated conferences in the country year in and year out.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

15* George Mason/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on George Mason +8.5

The VCU Rams are likely in the NCAA Tournament win or lose.  The George Mason Patriots have to win to get in.  I like the motivational advantage the Patriots have here, and this number is out of whack as George Mason has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.

George Mason is 26-7 this season.  The Patriots should still be pretty fresh after making easy work of both George Washington and St. Joseph's the last two days beating both by double-digits.  VCU was in a dog fight with Loyola-Chicago yesterday winning by just 7.

George Mason also wants revenge after blowing a halftime lead on the road at VCU in their lone meeting this season.  The Patriots shot just 35.4% as a team, 26.3% from 3-point range and 62.5% from the FT line in that defeat.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Sunday.

20* Louisville/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Louisville +6.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury in their ACC Tournament opener to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  I cashed in UNC +7.5 yesterday fading Duke without these two, and I'm fading them again today as they should not be 6.5-point favorites over Louisville without Flagg and Brown.

Duke showed a ton of heart in the first half against UNC yesterday with an inspired effort to prove they could still win without Flagg.  The Blue Devils led by 21 at halftime, but then reality set in and UNC stormed back to get within 1, only to commit a lane violation that cost them the game in a 74-71 defeat.

I have Louisville power rated a few points better than North Carolina, so I'll gladly take the points again.  The Cardinals are battle-tested coming through clutch late to prevent comebacks by Stanford and Clemson the last two days.  I think they have what it takes to hang with Duke, especially knowing they don't have to deal with Flagg and Brown.

Duke beat Louisville by 11 in their lone regular season meeting this season.  But Flagg had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Brown had 6 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals.  That's a combined 26 points and 23 rebounds the Blue Devils will be without in the rematch.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's -4.5

The St. John's Red Storm have a huge home-court advantage in the Big East Tournament playing at Madison Square Garden.  They have made easy work of their first two opponents beating Butler 78-57 as 12-point favorites and Marquette 79-63 as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Red Storm should still be pretty fresh for this game against Creighton due to the blowout nature of their first two games.  Meanwhile, Creighton was in a couple dog fights the last two days, needing 2 OT to beat DePaul 85-81 as 13-point favorites on Thursday and staving off a big comeback by UConn in a 71-62 win on Friday.

You could see Creighton players breathing heavily as UConn nearly erased a 15-point deficit in the 2H.  Now the Bluejays go up against a St. John's team that will test your stamina more than just about any team in the country.  They will give Creighton zero room to breathe.  The Red Storm rank 49th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They press for 40 minutes and make everyone work for everything they get offensively.  They rank 1st in adjusted defense.

Finally, St. John's hasn't won the Big East Tournament since 2000.  That's 25 years of suffering, and you can bet the Red Storm will be max motivated today to get it done.  I expect them to win in a blowout as Creighton tires out in the 2H, while the Red Storm only get stronger.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/George Mason Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on George Mason +1

George Mason has a huge rest advantage over St. Joe's today and should not be underdogs as a result.  The Patriots got a bye into the quarterfinals yesterday before blasting George Washington 80-65.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days and should still be fresh after the blowout win.

St. Joe's will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two dog fights the last two days.  The Hawks only beat La Salle 75-70 as 12.5-point favorites on Thursday before needing OT to beat Dayton 73-68 on Friday.  I love fading teams in these conference tournaments coming off OT games because they tend to run out of gas in their next game.

George Mason beat St. Joe's 58-57 in their lone meeting this season.  They won that game despite St. Joe's shooting 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range while the Patriots shot just 2-of-10 (20%).  Positive shooting regression can only be the case in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* Michigan/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -4

I cashed in both Maryland and Michigan yesterday as premium plays.  But only one of these teams is a contender while the other is a pretender.  I'll gladly back the contender in Maryland laying the short number against the pretender in Michigan.

Maryland is playing as well as anyone in the country right now going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Michigan State by 3, one of the best teams in the country.  The Terrapins made easy work of Illinois 88-65 yesterday which allowed its started to rest late and stay fresh for this game.  That's an Illinois team that was coming off four straight blowout wins including a 20-point win at Michigan.

Michigan is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall with that 20-point loss to Illinois, a 17-point loss at Michigan State and also a 6-point home loss to this same Maryland team.  The Terrapins shot just 38.1% from the field in that game and still won by 6 on the road.  There's just not much room for improvement for the Wolverines on a neutral in the rematch.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Utah State/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Utah State is pretty much locked into the NCAA Tournament now after a 70-58 win over UNLV yesterday against a Rebels team that was missing two of their best players.  I wasn't impressed at all with that win.

What I was impressed with was Colorado State handing Utah State its worst loss of the season in a 93-66 home win on March 1st just two weeks ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and the Rams should be favored here by a lot more.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

20* Cal Poly/UC-Irvine Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine -10

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Cal Poly will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while UC-Irvine got a bye into the semifinals.  That's a huge rest advantage for the Anteaters, who have been off since March 8th and are highly motivated to get to the final.  Irvine beat Cal Poly 101-71 in their last meeting this season.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

15* Kentucky/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Kentucky beat Oklahoma 85-84 at the buzzer yesterday.  That was a poor result considering Oklahoma played a grueling game the day before while Kentucky was rested.

Now it's Kentucky at the rest disadvantage because Alabama got a bye into the quarterfinals today.  And Kentucky lost Lamont Butler (11.5 PPG) to an injury in that game, and they were already without Jax Robinson (13.0 PPG).  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama today without two of their top four scorers.  The Crimson Tide won by 5 on the road and by 13 at home in their two regular season meetings with the Wildcats and scored a combined 198 points in both wins.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Purdue/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +3

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Purdue is coming off a 76-71 comeback win over a USC team that was coming off a double-OT game the previous day.  It's concerning that Purdue struggled to put away USC given the rest advantage.  Now it's Purdue at the rest disadvantage playing a Michigan team that got a bye into the quarterfinals today.  It's a very motivated Michigan team that lost three straight to close out the regular season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* Seattle/Utah Valley WAC ANNIHILATOR on Utah Valley -3

The WAC Tournament is a little quirky but the top teams have the advantage.  No. 1 seed Utah Valley crushed Utah Tech 74-57 as 12.5-point favorites on Wednesday, while No. 5 seed Seattle squeaked by Abilene Christian 69-63 as 6-point favorites on Thursday.

So Utah Valley has the rest advantage after having yesterday off.  With that rest and preparation advantage, plus the fact that Utah Valley won and covered against Seattle in both meetings this season, they should be more than 3-point favorites today.  Bet Utah Valley Friday.

20* UConn/Creighton Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5

It's Tournament Time and the UConn Huskies are as dangerous as they come in tournament action.  They won the NCAA title the last two years, and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  UConn is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

While UConn made easy work of Villanova in a 73-56 win yesterday, Creighton had to go to double-overtime to beat lowly DePaul 85-81 (2 OT) yesterday.  The Bluejays lack depth as it is, and Kalbrenner played 47 minutes while Neal played all 50 in the win.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Huskies today.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* UNC/Duke ACC No-Brainer on UNC +7.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury yesterday to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  They will almost certainly be without both guys today.

Duke should not be 7.5-point favorites over North Carolina without Flagg and Brown.  Flagg had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists to lead the Blue Devils to a 82-69 win over UNC in the regular-season finale.  Brown had 8 points and was a menace switching on the perimeter to stop UNC's guards down the stretch.  UNC led basically the entire way until the final few minutes with Duke pulling away late.  UNC wants revenge and has a great shot at getting that revenge today without having to deal with Flagg and Brown.  Bet UNC Friday.

20* Illinois/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -1

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Illinois played an absolute shootout against Iowa yesterday in a 106-94 victory and I question how much they'll have left in the tank.

Maryland got a bye into the quarterfinals.  The Terrapins already beat Illinois 91-70 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  Bet Maryland Friday.

15* George Washington/George Mason Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on George Mason -2.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  George Washington beat Fordham 88-81 yesterday, while George Mason got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Bet George Mason Friday.

20* Texas/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -9.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Texas will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while Tennessee got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Texas was in two dog fights the last two days beating Vanderbilt 79-72 before upsetting Texas A&M 94-89 (2 OT) yesterday.  That 2 OT game will make the Longhorns even more tired head into this one as three starters played at least 40 minutes yesterday.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* FAU/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +3.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  FAU beat Charlotte 64-59 as 10-point favorites yesterday, while Tulane got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Tulane beat FAU 80-65 in their lone meeting this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Tulane Friday.

20* UNLV/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State -7

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Oklahoma/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Villanova/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -9

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Nevada/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State -4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* DePaul/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Creighton -11.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Stanford/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -10

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Illinois -10.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Texas/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -6

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Northwestern/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -7.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +2

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Davidson/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Saint Louis -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Arkansas/Ole Miss SEC No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Iowa State/BYU Big 12 No-Brainer on BYU +3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Rutgers PK

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* La Salle/UMass A-10 ANNIHILATOR on UMass -2.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Fordham/Rhode Island A-10 ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island -4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State -1

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* South Carolina/Arkansas SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Lamar +1

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on McNeese State -12.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Pepperdine/St. Mary’s ESPN No-Brainer on St. Mary’s -18.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Drake -2

I think getting to play the early game the day before is a huge advantage.  Teams that play the early game in these conference tournaments get to scout the team that plays in the late game for their upcoming showdown the next day.

Drake crushed SIU 70-53 before needing a comeback to beat Belmont 57-50 yesterday.  The Bulldogs should still be pretty fresh, and they play at one of the slowest tempos in the country to help them remain fresh.

Bradley was in two wars with Murray State and Valparaiso the last two days.  Those are two terrible teams in the MVC and they took the Braves to the wire.  They beat Murray State 70-62 two days ago before topping Valparaiso 70-65 yesterday.  Now the Braves will be tested playing their 3rd game in 3 days and another war in store.  I expect Drake to pull away late.  

The Bulldogs own the Braves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Drake Sunday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina +5.5

East Carolina is alive for a Top 4 seed in the AAC which would get the Pirates a double-bye in the AAC Tournament.  They need to win today and have Tulane lose to UAB, and the Green Wave are underdogs to the Blazers so that is a very realistic possibility.

Florida Atlantic has nothing to play for today.  They haven't been playing well at all down the stretch going 1-4 SU in their last five games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.  They should not be this big of favorites today.

East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall with its lone loss coming on the road by 5 points.  The Pirates are playing the much better basketball right now, and not only will they be motivated for a double-bye, but they also want revenge from a 78-76 loss to FAU in their first meeting this season way back on January 5th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since then, and that will play out on the court today.  Bet East Carolina Sunday.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +11.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most improved teams in the country here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.2 points per game.

This late surge has put the Tar Heels on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Duke would cement their spot.  They want revenge from a 87-70 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season as 13.5-point dogs.  This line is now 11.5 in the rematch, which isn't adjusted enough for home-court advantage.  It should be much closer to 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tar Heels win this game outright.

No question Duke will be motivated to beat their rival, but I don't think they'll have the same motivation they normally would going into this rivalry game.  They have already clinched an ACC regular season title and are locked in to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They already beat UNC by 17 as well, so there's not as much of a sense of urgency after already blowing them out once.  But this is a totally different UNC team from that first meeting, and I expect them to give the Blue Devils a run for their money today.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +12.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have completely let go of the rope here down the stretch and have no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Boston College as a result.  The Panthers are 4-12 SU & 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including four straight losses with three upset losses to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and NC State.

Boston College continues to play hard here down the stretch going 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Eagles gave Clemson a run for their money last game in a 9-point loss against one of the top teams in the ACC.  They will be able to hang with Pittsburgh today.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier -11

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier followed up its 22-point home win over Creighton with a 13-point road win at Butler.  Joe Lunardi has them listed as the last team in the field, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they'll still be max motivated to beat Providence today.

Providence has completely let go of the rope here down the stretch.  The Friars are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall, including 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games with four straight terrible losses.  They lost by 21 at Georgetown, by 30 at Marquette, by 12 at home to UConn and were upset as 9-point home favorites by DePaul.  

Xavier beat Providence 91-82 on the road on February 12th in their first meeting this season.  They won by 9 despite the Friars shooting 53.7% from the field.  They aren't going to shoot that well in the rematch, and it will be an even bigger blowout as a result.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -21.5

I love the spot for the Utah State Aggies today.  They are coming off two straight embarrassing road losses by 17 at Boise State and by 27 at Colorado State.  They have had the last week off to recover, and I expect a big effort from them today.

The Aggies are now on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they can't afford to take Air Force lightly.  They certainly didn't when they blasted Air Force 87-58 on the road in their first meeting this season.  I expect it to be more of the same in the rematch.

Air Force has lost three straight games by 21 or more points coming in, and they have lost seven of their last 11 games by 21-plus points.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland -1

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while covering the spread by a combined 75.5 points in those six games, or an average of 12.6 points per game.  All five of their ATS wins came by at least 10.5 points.

I'm willing to forgive Portland for a 82-80 road loss at San Diego as 2-point favorites in their regular season finale because they had nothing to play for.  It was Senior Night for San Diego and they were clearly the more motivated team.  San Diego went on to upset Pacific in the WCC Tournament yesterday.

Pepperdine is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone win coming at home over San Diego.  That includes two 20-point losses to Portland, and there's no way the Waves should be getting this much respect again in their 3rd and final meeting.  The Pilots will obviously be max motivated with their season on the line and won't take the Waves lightly.  It's going to be another blowout in their favor.  Bet Portland Friday.

15* Dayton/VCU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Dayton +9

The Dayton Flyers want revenge from their 73-68 home loss to VCU as 1-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  The last five regular season meetings between these teams have now been decided by 5 points or fewer.

I question VCU's motivation in its regular season finale here knowing that they have already locked up the Atlantic 10 regular season title.  The Flyers are in a three-way tie for seeds 3-5, and the top 4 seeds get a bye in the Atlantic 10 Tournament so they have a lot to play for.

Dayton is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games overall with two losses coming by 5 points or fewer, so the Flyers are playing very well to close out the season.  They can hang with the top team in the A-10 tonight.  Bet Dayton Friday.

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +5.5

The Evansville Purple Aces have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They remain undervalued as 5.5-point underdogs to the Murray State Racers in the MVC Tournament opener.

Murray State is just a team I don't have much faith in because I think Steve Prohm is one of the worst coaches in the country.  Just look at what Iowa State has done since he departed.  He benefited from having Fred Hoiberg's players, and when he got his own players they really struggled before his firing.

The Racers are 5-9 SU in their last 14 games overall.  They only beat Evansville by 2 at home while losing by 4 at Evansville in the rematch.  So both teams were down to the wire.  Each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less, and the Purple Aces have gone 3-0 ATS in those three meetings.  Bet Evansville Thursday.

20* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss +4

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a big letdown spot after a 79-76 home win over Alabama on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Vols have been much more vulnerable on the road, going 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in SEC road games with three of those wins coming by single-digits.

Ole Miss is 11-3 SU at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  This is a game I fully expect the Rebels to win outright.  Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -17.5

Texas Tech just got two of its best players back from injury in McMillan and Williams in time to upset Kansas on the road over the weekend.  Now the Red Raiders are at full strength and one of the best teams in the country when that's the case.  They rank 7th in KenPom and are one of my favorite long shot bets to win the NCAA Tournament.

I expect the Red Raiders to make easy work of Colorado, which is the worst team in the Big 12 at 2-16 in conference play this season.  The Buffaloes made me some money lately because they were undervalued for a stretch, but now it's time to fade them tonight.

The Buffaloes just lost one of their best players in Julian Hammond (12.4 PPG) in a 9-point loss at Kansas State in their last game.  They can't afford to be without him.  Colorado is 0-9 SU in Big 12 road games this season with seven losses by double-digits.

This will be Senior Night for the Red Raiders so they should be fully focused and ready to go. They should also be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  I look for them to put it on the Buffaloes and win this game by 20-plus tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -3

George Washington is going for its 20th win this season and has been one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Colonials will be motivated to get that 20th win tonight, and I like the value we are getting on them as short 3-point favorites.

Fordham is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and just ready for this season to be over.  The Rams have lost five of those six games by 9 points or more with the lone exception being a 4-point loss at Richmond, which is 10-20 this season.

Fordham's last three home games have been a disaster losing by 17 to Dayton, by 14 to St. Joe's and by 11 to Davidson.  The Colonials have actually pulled outright upsets in two of their last three road games at Davidson by 7 and at St. Bonaventure by 10.  Bet George Washington Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is coming off a 22-point home win over Creighton.  Joe Lunardi has them listed on the First 4 Out line, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they won't have a letdown here off the Creighton win and despite the fact that they just beat Butler by 13 at home a few weeks ago.

Butler is 6-12 in Big East play this season with all six wins coming against teams that rank in the bottom half of the conference standings, and five of them coming against the bottom 3 teams in the Big East.

I like the fact that Xavier is rested playing just its 2nd game in 10 days with that 22-point win over Creighton being their lone game during this stretch.  I expect a big effort from the Musketeers tonight.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -3.5

The Utah Utes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone 15-3 SU & 12-6 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 home games.

West Virginia is all defense and no offense.  The Mountaineers are just 4-8 SU in their last 12 games overall and dangerously close to missing out on the NCAA Tournament.  They have huge home/road splits this season, going 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven Big 12 road games including two straight blowout road losses to BYU by 21 and Texas Tech by 22.

Now the Mountaineers have to play back-to-back games in altitude after that 77-56 loss at BYU on Saturday, they turn around and have to play in Utah on Tuesday.  They have a very short rotation to boot with zero depth.  I don't expect it to go very well for them tonight.  Bet Utah Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -3.5

The Villanova Wildcats have played their way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  This will be their regular season finale against Georgetown and it is a must-win.

Villanova also wants revenge from a 64-63 home loss to Georgetown on January 20th.  Big man Thomas Sorber (14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 1.5 SPG) had 15 points and 11 rebounds in that matchup.

Well, the Hoyas are without Sorber for the rest of the season now.  It has not gone well without him in their last three games with three straight losses by double-digits, including a 15-point home loss to Marquette last time out.  Villanova will dominate the paint in Sorber's absence which will be the difference in this game tonight.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +10.5

The Creighton Bluejays aren't playing well enough to be double-digit road favorites against Seton Hall tonight.  The Bluejays are 2-3 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They were upset at home by UConn and had lackluster home wins over Georgetown by 11 as 12.5-point favorites and over DePaul by 10 as 16-point favorites.  They lost by 6 at St. John's and by 22 at Xavier in their two road games.

The Seton Hall Pirates have been a very tough out at home here of late.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with an upset win over UConn as 13.5-point dogs.  They also only lost to Xavier by 7 as 9.5-point dogs and Villanova by 5 as 8-point dogs.  I think at worst they lose this game by single-digits tonight.

Seton Hall wants revenge from a 79-54 road loss at Creighton on January 25th.  The Pirates only trailed by 4 at halftime but the Bluejays went off in the 2nd half.  Creighton shot 58.3% as a team and 42.3% from 3 for the game, and it's hard to see them shooting nearly that well again in the rematch.  Seton Hall is only allowing 66.1 points per game and 43.9% shooting at home and will make the proper adjustments to hold Creighton in check in the rematch.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UTSA +9

The Memphis Tigers are coming off a huge 88-81 road win at UAB on Sunday as 1-point underdogs.  That win assured that they can now clinch the AAC title with either a win tonight or a home win over USF on Friday.  Knowing they have that game against USF at home in their back pocket, I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers.

UTSA is one of the most underrated teams in the AAC due to its poor 11-17 record this season.  But the Roadrunners are so much better than that record would indicate when you look at the results.  UTSA is 1-6 SU in its last seven games but the six losses all came by 7 points or fewer, so they have been very unlucky in close games.

UTSA took out its frustration with a 84-56 home win over Rice last time out.  Now the Roadrunners will treat this game against ranked Memphis as their 'national championship' game tonight.  An upset win here would make their season.

UTSA will be playing just its 2nd game in 9 days, while Memphis will be playing its 4th game in 10 days.  The Roadrunners have the rest and preparation advantage, and I have no doubt they will be the more motivated team tonight.  Bet UTSA Tuesday.

20* Wake Forest/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +20.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while continuing to cover massive numbers.  But this has also been their easiest stretch of the conference seasons with their last six wins coming against Stanford, Cal, Virginia, Miami, FSU and Illinois.

Now the Blue Devils have their toughest test since a 77-71 road loss at Clemson.  Wake Forest hung right with Duke at home on January 25th in their first meeting losing 63-56 as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they are 20.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

Wake Forest kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 74-71 home win over Notre Dame last time out.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Demon Deacons after failing to cover each of their last three.

This is the rare season where the Demon Deacons have actually played their best basketball on the road.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  They haven't lost a road game by more than 15 points all season.  They haven't lost any of their 29 games by more than 17 points all season, making for a 29-0 system backing the Demon Deacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.

This is their last ditch effort to make the NCAA Tournament with an upset of Duke.  They'll be 'all in' tonight, while Duke could be caught looking ahead to its regular season finale against rival UNC.  Bet Wake Forest Monday.

15* Wisconsin/Michigan State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +4.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are better than the Michigan State Spartans.  They should not be catching points here, and the books are giving the Spartans too much credit for home-court advantage.  This is a game I fully expect the Badgers to win outright.

The Badgers are 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  The three losses came by 2 to UCLA, by 8 to Maryland after blowing a late lead and in OT to Oregon after blowing a double-digit lead.  They are very close to being 17-0 during this stretch.

The spot is a bad one for the Michigan State Spartans.  After upsetting rival Michigan on the road, they beat Maryland on a 3-pointer at the buzzer on the road.  Now they return home fat and happy.  Remember, they recently lost to Indiana as 11.5-point home favorites.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

15* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +9.5

San Francisco has been one of the most underrated teams in the country here down the stretch.  The Dons are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to the two best teams in the conference in St. Mary's and Gonzaga.

They avenged their loss to St. Mary's with a 65-64 home win over the Gaels as 5-point dogs.  Now they are looking to avenge their 88-77 road loss at Gonzaga and are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  They are due some positive shooting regression after shooting 43.3% in that first meeting while the Bulldogs shot 52.3%, yet they only lost by 11 on the road.

While this isn't a true home game, it will still be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco so it will feel like one.  And San Francisco is 16-0 SU at home this season.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +8

Boston College is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes three OT losses to UNC and Syracuse on the road and Notre Dame at home.  They beat VA Tech by 18 and Georgia Tech by 15 before going on the road and losing by 18 at Stanford.

I think that 18-point loss at Stanford last time out has the Eagles undervalued coming into this game against California.  That was a tough travel spot, but now the Eagles have been out West for the last three days and have had time to adjust.  They should come back with a much better effort against Cal tonight.

This is also a big step down in class for the Eagles against Cal, which is 0-5 SU in its last five games overall.  The Bears have no business being this big of a favorite tonight.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Arizona/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -6

Iowa State is going to be fully healthy for this game with Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) returning to the lineup.  Curtis Jones (16.9 PPG) returned to the lineup last game, and Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG) looks back to full strength after missing seven games in the middle of conference season.  Iowa State's only loss this season when fully healthy came at the buzzer against No. 1 Auburn on a neutral.

Off an upset loss at Oklahoma State and out for revenge on Arizona, I expect a huge effort from the Cyclones today.  They didn't lose a single home game all last year and they have lost just one home game this season.  The Cyclones are 33-1 SU in their last 34 home games.  They have arguably the best home-court advantage in the entire country, and it will be lit inside Hilton Coliseum for a Saturday night game.

Iowa State lost at Arizona in OT after Caleb Love hit a 65-footer at the buzzer to force OT.  The Cyclones have been in a bit of a spiral since, but it has been more due to injuries than to the nature of that defeat.  They avenge that loss in a big way with a blowout home win tonight.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +3

Vanderbilt is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  The Commodores have impressive home wins over Ole Miss, Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee this season.  Now they are ready to add Missouri to the list.

The Commodores want revenge on the Tigers, who won 75-66 in Columbia in their first meeting this season.  Vanderbilt shot 40.4% while Missouri shot 49% in that game.  It's safe to say the Commodores are due some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch.

Missouri is just 3-5 SU in true road games this season coming off a 7-point loss at Arkansas.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati +15

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  Houston is coming off two very satisfying wins over Iowa State at home and Texas Tech on the road.  The win over the Red Raiders was extra sweet because they avenged an earlier home loss to them.

But those two wins come with a big asterisk.  Iowa State was without its top two scorers and the Cougars were in a dog fight with them eventually winning by 9 as 11.5-point closing favorites.  And then they lucked out against Texas Tech who was without 2 of its top 3 scorers as late scratches.  The Cougars took a ton of money and needed to pull away in the final seconds to win by 8.

Now let's look at what Houston has on deck.  They have Kansas on deck at home for Senior Night on Monday and could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They close the season at Baylor.  So this is the ultimate sandwich spot after facing ISU and Texas Tech with Kansas and Baylor on deck.  This is where the Cougars will be flat, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 15-point spread.

Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season right now fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston would stamp their ticket and they know it.  The Bearcats are 5-2 SU & 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 10 at UCF, by 18 at home over BYU, by 10 at home over Utah, by 12 at home over TCU and by 2 at home over Baylor.  They only lost by 11 at Iowa State as 11.5-point dogs and by 3 at WVU as 3-point dogs.

Five of the last six meetings between Cincinnati and Houston have been decided by 13 points or fewer.  This one will be much closer than expected.  I like the fact that both teams play slow so this game will see very few possessions.  Houston ranks 361st in adjusted tempo while Cincinnati ranks 294th.  Houston hasn't won any of its last 10 games by more than 15 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Auburn/Kentucky ABC No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5

Kentucky is close to back to full strength and a very dangerous team when that's the case.  Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) returned from a three-game absence to help lead the Wildcats to an 83-82 win at Oklahoma last time out.  He should be even stronger in this game.

Kentucky has been a wagon at home this season.  The Wildcats are 14-2 SU at home with impressive wins over Vanderbilt by 21, Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 23, Texas A&M by 12 and Florida by 6.  They know they can play with Auburn at home.

Auburn has already clinched at least a share of the SEC title and will have a hard time being all that motivated over their final three games of the season because of it.  I think they are ripe for an upset today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson +14.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the VCU Rams.  They have gone 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It's safe to say you are paying a premium to back the Rams at this point.

Davidson is a tough team to blow out.  The Wildcats have only one conference loss by more than 12 points all season.  The only two teams that beat them by more than this margin in non-conference play were Gonzaga and Arizona.

I like the matchup for the Wildcats, who don't turn the ball over ranking 18th in the country in turnover percentage.  VCU thrives off of turning opponents over, and these Davidson guards are going to be able to handle the ball against the Rams' high-pressure defense.

I like the fact that this game will be played at a very slow pace with Davidson ranking 284th in adjusted tempo while VCU ranks 228th.  Fewer possessions will make it tougher for the Rams to pull away from the Wildcats.  Bet Davidson Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3.5

We have two teams headed in opposite directions here tonight.  Portland is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall which includes a 84-64 road win at Pepperdine in their first meeting this season.  It also includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilotes only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.

Pepperdine is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall with its lone win coming at home against San Diego by 7 as 8-point favorites.  San Diego is the worst team in the WCC at 4-25 overall and 1-15 in WCC play this season.  The Waves are 4-12 in WCC play this season with their four wins coming against the two worst teams in the conference in Pacific and San Diego.

The Waves have losses against common opponents that the Pilots just beat here recently losing to Loyola-Marymount by 9, Oregon State by 6 and Marymount again by 11.  They also lost by 52 at Gonzaga.  While the Waves are just ready for their season to be over, the Pilots are building some momentum heading into the WCC Tournament and trying to improve their seeding.  I expect a big effort from them on Senior Night tonight.  Bet Portland Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Michigan Wolverines are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Amazingly, each of their last 8 wins have come by 4 points or fewer.  That includes their 49-46 win at Nebraska on Thursday.

Now the Wolverines will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They play a Rutgers team that will only be playing its 2nd game in 8 days, which is a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation.

Michigan beat Rutgers 66-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  But Rutgers didn't have its best player in Dylan Harper (19.4 PPG) due to injury in that game.  Harper returned to the lineup after that loss to Michigan for the past six games and has scored at least 20 points in four of them.

What makes that 3-point loss to Michigan even more impressive is the fact that Rutgers shot just 32.8% from the field while Michigan shot 47.8%.  The Scarlet Knights can only have positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch with Harper.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Robert Morris -6.5

Robert Morris has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball this season.  The Colonials are 22-8 SU & 22-7 ATS this season, including 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in road/neutral games.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Wright State by 2.

Now the Colonials will be playing their final game of the regular season.  This is a huge game for them because they can clinch at least a share of the Horizon League regular season title and likely win it outright with a victory.  Their season ends today while the rest of the Horizon League has at least one more game remaining.

That's why I'm not concerned about Robert Morris having a letdown despite the fact that they already beat IU Indy 106-53 at home in their first meeting, doubling them up by 53 points.  While I don't expect it to be that easy in the rematch, I do think they easily cover this 6.5-point spread.

IU Indy is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games overall.  The Jaguars are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four home games with three losses by double-digits.  They have another home game remaining against Wright State so this isn't even Senior night for them.  Bet Robert Morris Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +11

The Boston College Eagles have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home wins over Georgia Tech by 15 and Virginia Tech by 18 and they aren't getting the respect they deserve right now.

We saw the Eagles recently take North Carolina to OT as 19.5-point road underdogs.  They only lost by 8 at NC State and by 9 at Syracuse.  The Eagles have only lost one of their last eight games by double-digits, and that was against Louisville, which is one of the top teams in the ACC.

Stanford is coming off a 66-61 home win over rival California.  That sets the Cardinal up for a letdown spot here.  Stanford is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Cardinal haven't won any of their last eight games by more than 9 points.  This number is clearly inflated.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +14.5

Memphis is in 1st place in the American Athletic.  The Tigers just beat FAU last time out.  Now they have an even bigger game on deck against UAB, which is trailing Memphis by just one game for 1st place.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Tigers, who will be overlooking Rice tonight.

Rice nearly upset Memphis in a 86-83 home loss as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost by 3 despite Memphis shooting 55% from the field and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range.  I'm confident Memphis won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Rice has quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and has been competitive in every game.  The Owls haven't lost any of their last 12 games by more than 11 points, and they have just one loss by double-digits in those 12 games.

Rice pulled the 74-71 upset at Memphis as identical 14.5-point dogs last season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.  They always play to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  Bet Rice Wednesday.

20* Gonzaga/Santa Clara WCC Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been overvalued all season.  They are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They were even 7-point home favorites over St. Mary's on Saturday and lost outright 74-67 as the Gaels completed the season sweep.

Now I think it's Santa Clara's turn to complete the season sweep after upsetting Gonzaga 103-99 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Now the Broncos get the Bulldogs at home.  I think the loss to St. Mary's is the type of loss that could beat Gonzaga twice as they are simply looking ahead to the WCC Tournament at this point.

The Broncos are grossly undervalued right now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at St. Mary's by 9 as 12-point dogs.  They crushed all other comers beating Pacific by 34, Portland by 47, San Diego by 23, Loyola-Marymount by 15 and Washington State by 30.  Bet Santa Clara Tuesday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans are 19-7 ATS this season as one of the best covering teams in the country.  They went 1-3 ATS in games in which leading scorer Josh Uduje (16.4 PPG) was either limited or out.

But Uduje returned to the lineup on Saturday and scored 29 points in a 82-73 road win at Wyoming.  Second-leading scorer Will McClendon (12.0 PPG) was also out the same games that Uduje was absent from.  There's a good chance he returns tonight.

UNLV leading scorer Dedan Thomas (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) got hurt two games ago in a 52-51 win at Fresno State as 8-point favorites.  Thomas sat out the Rebels' 61-53 home loss to Colorado State as 2-point dogs.  Thomas is out again tonight, and the Rebels are lost offensively without him.

San Jose State wants revenge from a 79-73 road loss at UNLV on January 4th.  Thomas led the Rebels with 17 points in that first matchup, so not having him in the rematch is a huge blow.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* Mississippi State/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +8.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been through the gauntlet in their last three games.  After losing 94-85 at home to Auburn and 110-98 at Missouri, the Crimson Tide were able to bounce back against a short-handed Kentucky team pulling away late for a 96-83 home victory on Saturday.

I question how much the Crimson Tide have left in the tank now playing their 4th game in 11 days here.  Grant Nelson (12.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG) is nursing an ankle injury that has seen him pop up on the injury report for this one.  He'll likely go but he'll likely be limited.

Mississippi State wants revenge from a 88-84 home loss to Alabama in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  The Crimson Tide went 15-of-31 (48.4%) from 3-point range in that game yet the Bulldogs still only lost by 4. I can only see positive shooting regression in the Bulldogs' favor in the rematch.

Mississippi State beat Ole Miss 81-71 as 3-point road dogs and Texas A&M 70-54 as 2-point home favorites in their two games prior to a 93-87 upset road loss at Oklahoma as 4-point favorites over the weekend.  That was a clear letdown spot for them with Alabama on deck, and I think we are getting a few extra points on the Bulldogs due to that loss now.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +10.5

Iowa State was without its top two scorers in Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) and Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG) in its last game at Houston.  Both are questionable to return today against Oklahoma State.  They had to be seriously hurting to miss that Houston game.

Either way, I like the Cowboys to cover this double-digit spread.  Oklahoma State has been a very tough out at home in Big 12 play.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big 12 home games with all five wins coming by 9 points or more.  

Iowa State is 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games.  The Cyclones haven't blown anyone out on the road in Big 12 play this season.  The Cowboys have owned the Cyclones, going 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.