15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +20.5

This is one of the more underrated rivalries in college basketball.  And with New Mexico down several notches from the team they were last season with all they lost in the offseason, the Lobos should not be 20.5-point favorites over the New Mexico State Aggies.

New Mexico had to come from behind late to beat San Jose State 83-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out.  New Mexico State is 3-5 SU this season, but four of the five losses came by 12 points or less, and the lone exception was a 21-point loss at Dayton which is one of the better mid-majors in the country.  They only lost by 7 at UNLV.

Five of the last six meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  New Mexico State has only lost by more than 20 points to New Mexico twice since 1982 which is spanning 88 meetings.  That makes for a 86-2 system backing the Aggies pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Indiana +9.5

Asking Southern Illinois to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Salukis are just 3-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS this season.  Their three wins came against Missouri S&T, NDSU and Florida Tech.

Southern Illinois is coming off a 23-point home loss to Bradley as 4-point dogs.  They also lost by 25 at Florida, but 6 at LA Tech and were upset by Eastern Kentucky.

Southern Indiana is 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last five games.  Three of those four wins were outright upsets as underdogs.  Their 80-78 loss at DePaul as 15-point dogs looks even better right now considering DePaul has only lost one game, and that was a 14-point loss at Texas Tech.  Bet Southern Indiana Saturday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on DePaul +16.5

Former Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann is doing a tremendous turnaround job at DePaul in his first season on the job.  The Blue Demons are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with five wins coming by 19 or more points.

Texas Tech struggled with two teams they shouldn't have, which makes me believe DePaul can stay within this inflated number.  The Red Raiders lost outright to St. Joseph's 78-77 as 10.5-point favorites on a neutral and only beat a down Syracuse team 79-74 as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  Those were by far their two toughest games of the season.  

The Red Raiders face a DePaul team that has pretty much matched them in terms of being great shooters.  The Blue Demons rank 2nd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 41.2% from deep as a team.  Bet DePaul Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +20

After a rough start to the season, proven head coach Tim Miles has the San Jose Spartans improving rapidly.  The Spartans have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five games decided by 16 points or less.

Now the Spartans are catching 20 points against a New Mexico team that is way down from last season.  That was evident with their 14-point loss at St. John's.  The Lobos split a pair of tournament games losing to ASU and then beating USC in their last two games coming in.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for New Mexico.  Coming off those two huge games against ASU and USC, and now with a game looming against their in-state rival on Saturday up next, this is a classic sandwich spot.  I don't think we get the Lobos' best effort here, and it's going to take their best effort to win this game by more than 20 points.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* Baylor/UConn FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3

The UConn Huskies are down several notches from the teams that won the National Championship each of the last two seasons.  But they continue to get respect from oddsmakers that they do not deserve.

That was evident in going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their recent tournament losing outright to Memphis as 8.5-point favorites, losing outright to Colorado as 14.5-point favorites and losing outright to Dayton by 18 as 7-point favorites.

Now things have gotten worse for the Huskies as they just lost their best player in Alex Karaban (15.9 PPG) in that loss to Dayton.  He was their best returning player by far, and I think the Huskies are going to be even more lost without him moving forward.

Baylor's two losses this season came to two of the best teams in the country in Tennessee and Gonzaga.  They have been battle-tested, also beating a very good St. John's team in OT.  I think UConn in their current state is far worse than all three of those teams.  Bet Baylor Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on St. Joseph's -5.5

I've been very impressed with the Saint Joseph Hawks this season against a very difficult schedule.  They have gone 5-2 SU this season despite already having to face Villanova, Texas Tech and Texas.  They actually upset Villanova at home and Texas Tech on a neutral.  They only lost to Texas by 9.

Princeton is 6-3 SU but 3-5 ATS this season.  The wins have not been impressive beating Iona by 1 as 12.5-point favorites and Northeastern by 3 as 7.5-point favorites.  The losses to Loyola by 5 as 2-point favorites, Wright State by 18 as 7.5-point favorites and Texas State by 3 as 6.5-point favorites are even more concerning.

Despite the easy schedule, Princeton ranks 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  Saint Joseph's ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the much tougher schedule.  Bet Saint Joseph's Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on North Florida +16.5

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  I believe they are overvalued since.  I faded them with success with South Dakota +23 in their next game, and now I'm fading them again because they remain overvalued.  Plus, they have their Big Ten opener against Michigan State on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites, lost to Texas A&M 77-73 as 4-point dogs and only beat Notre Dame 80-76 as 8-point favorites.  The Bluejays are 1-6-1 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

North Florida is 5-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with a couple very impressive wins.  They upset South Carolina 74-71 as 18-point road underdogs and upset Georgia Tech 105-93 as 13.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost by 13 as 15-point dogs at Georgia.  They have proven they can hang with the big boys, and they will be looking forward to the opportunity of proving it again today.  Bet North Florida Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -9.5

UC-Irvine is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season in lined games.  The Anteaters are loaded with four returning starters, and they will be motivated to cap off a 3-0 sweep in this Western Slam round robin tournament.

Towson is 4-4 SU & 3-4 ATS this season.  Towson's four wins came against a Division II team, James Madison, Nicholls State and Morgan State.  They only won those last three games by 6 or fewer points each.  They lost by 26 at South Carolina earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents now to compare them to due to this round robin format.  UC-Irvine beat Kennesaw State by 17 and Kent State by 12, while Towson lost to Kent State by 11 and lost to Kennesaw State by 4.  I fully expect the Anteaters to win this game by double-digits tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -2.5

St. Bonaventure is 6-1 this season with its only loss coming yesterday in a 72-67 loss to Utah State as 6.5-point underdogs.  That's a very good Utah State team that is 6-0 this season with four blowout wins and a 77-69 upset win over Iowa as 3-point dogs.

Northern Iowa is just 3-3 SU this season with some very concerning results.  The Panthers lost by 20 at home to UC-Irvine and by 20 to North Texas yesterday as only 4-point dogs.  We are getting the Bonnies pretty cheap today as only 2.5-point favorites against the Panthers.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee +13

The Milwaukee Panthers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that won 20 games last year.  The Panthers are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming early.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since and will be looking to make a statement at UCF tonight.

Even though the Panthers returned four starters, their top three scorers are actually Division 1 transfers as Bart Lundy did a great job in the portal.  All three have either played for him before or for his assistant.  McKee (16.0 PPG), Fulks (14.7 PPG) and Stillwell (12.7 PPG) are all fitting in nicely.

UCF is 4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  The Knights lost to the two best teams they played in Wisconsin by 16 and LSU by 9 on neutrals.  They did beat Texas A&M by 3 at home, but they haven't been able to get margin on anyone.  They only beat Purdue-Fort Wayne by 7, FAU by 6 and Tennessee Tech by 11.  They haven't won a game yet by more than 11 points.  Bet Milwaukee Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  But now I'm fading the Huskers here tonight because I think they are overvalued off that win, and it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big in-state rivalry game that takes place every year.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites last night.  They are 1-5 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

I've been impressed with South Dakota this season.  The Coyotes are 6-2 SU with their lone losses coming by 19 at Iowa and by 9 at Southern Indiana.  I backed them in that game against Iowa, which I have power rated similarly to Nebraska.  

Iowa was only a 19-point closing favorite at home against South Dakota, and Nebraska is now a 23-point home favorite.  There's clearly value on the Coyotes given the letdown spot for the Huskers.  Bet South Dakota Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +2

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites, St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites, VA Tech 86-64 as 7.5-point favorites, IPFW 102-89 as 17-point favorites and Fordham 85-66 as 16-point favorites.  As you can see, the Nittany Lions have won all six of their games by at least 13 points and by an average of nearly 30 points per game.  

Returning starters Hicks (15.8 PPG, Baldwin (15.7 PPG, 7.7 APG) and Kern (11.8 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (7.5 PPG) and Johnson (11.5 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has been impressive.

Penn State should not be an underdog to Clemson, which brought back three starters but only has three double-digit scores to this point.  I think the Tigers are getting too much respect for their win over San Francisco yesterday.  They lost by 13 at 4-point dogs at Boise State in their toughest game this season, and this one won't be any easier.  Bet Penn State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and absolutely blowing through the competition.  They upset Texas on a neutral and lost to Texas A&M on the road.  But they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home beating Youngstown State by 34 as 19-point favorites, Evansville by 50 as 24.5-point favorites and Campbell by 44 as 25.5-point favorites.

Now they face a rebuilding Green Bay Phoenix team with a first-year head caoch who are 2-4 with all four losses by 13 points or more.  The two wins came against Western Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville.

But it's the loss to Evansville, a common opponent of Ohio State, that has me wanting to fade the Phoenix.  Green Bay lost 98-81 at Evansville while Ohio State beat Evansville 80-30.  Enough said.  Bet Ohio State Monday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on UC-Irvine -6.5

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the first two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.  They also beat Pepperdine 80-62 as 16-point favorites last time out.

Now the Anteaters should make easy work of a Weber State team that has been dreadful this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They lost 76-48 at Oregon State as 5-point dogs, lost 88-58 at Nevada as 17-point dogs and lost 73-68 at Hawaii as 5.5-point dogs, covering by 0.5-point after failing to cover by a combined 36 points in their first two games.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

15* Nebraska/Creighton FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

Fred Hoiberg is doing a great job at Nebraska turning them into a much more competitive program.  He has them off to a 3-1 start this season with their lone loss coming to Saint Mary's by 3 on a neutral as 4-point dogs.

Creighton is overvalued as a Top 25 team and that has played out as the Bluejays are 1-3 ATS this season with their lone cover coming by 2 points.  These teams have two common opponents already and seeing the results from those two games has led me to Nebraska +11 showing value.

Nebraska outscored UTRGV by 20 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by a combined 46 points.  Creighton outscored UTRGV by 13 and Fairleigh Dickinson by 26 winning those two games by 39 combined points.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Michigan -30.5

Michigan looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.  First-year head coach Dusty May comes over from Florida Atlantic fame after taking the Owls to the Final 4 two years ago.  He is already putting his imprint on this program.

The Wolverines are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming by 2 to Wake Forest as 2-point favorites on a neutral.  They blasted Cleveland State 101-53 as 21.5-point favorites, which is the same Cleveland State team that only lost by 13 at Kansas State and by 11 at Minnesota.  The Wolverines beat TCU 76-64 as 6.5-point home favorites and crushed Miami Ohio 94-67 as 23-point favorites.

Now Michigan takes an even bigger step down in class here against Tarleton State, which looks like one of the worst teams in the country this season.  Tarleton is 1-4 SU & 0-4 ATS with its lone win coming against Tabor College.  They lost by 32 at SMU at 14.5point dogs, by 29 at home to Sam Houston State as 5.5-point dogs, by 20 at Florida State as 17-point dogs and then by a whopping 63 points at Baylor as 31.5-point dogs.  Mercy.

It's not going to get any easier for the Texans and head coach Billy Gillespie tonight.  He lost all five starters from last season and frankly has lost his touch as a head coach.  The Texans are turning the ball over on 31.8% of possessions, which is the worst mark in the country.  They are averaging steals on just 17.8% of possessions, which is also worst in the country.  Michigan ranks 4th in the country in effective FG percentage at 64.4%.  The Wolverines will get what they want offensively and shut down Tarleton defensively similar to what SMU, Sam Houston and Baylor did to them.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24.5

I like the spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.  They suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Texas A&M last time out, and they'll come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.

The Buckeyes have played a tough schedule as they also beat Texas in their opener 80-72 as 2-point dogs on a neutral in Vegas.  They followed it up with a 81-47 blasting of Youngstown State as 19-point favorites in their lone home game this season.  That 34-point win looks really good when you consider Youngstown State beat Chicago State by 20 and took Syracuse to double-OT in its other two games.

Evansville is rebuilding with just one starter back from last year, and the results have been ugly for the Purple Aces this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing by 17 at North Texas as 13.5-point dogs, by 17 at Middle Tennessee as 11-point dogs and by 11 at home to Radford as 4-point favorites.  Radford lost by 40 at Pittsburgh.

This will be Evansville's toughest test of the season against a motivated Buckeyes team coming off a loss.  I don't expect it to go well for the Purple Aces tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +4

SIU-Edwardsville is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Cougars are 4-2 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with both losses coming on the road to Indiana and Illinois, who are two of the best teams in the country.  They even covered in a 19-point loss at Indiana as 27.5-point dogs.

The Cougars have handled everyone else winning 95-42 over FCS Westminister, 77-72 as 6-point dogs at Indiana State, 79-60 as 2.5-point dogs at Western Michigan and 76-58 as 5.5-point favorites over Canisius on a neutral.  Those are some very impressive results.

Green Bay is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Doug Gottlieb, the former commentator who I never thought would be a head coach.  It hasn't gone well for Gottlieb and the Phoenix in the early going.

The Phoenix are 1-3 SU this season and while two losses came on the road to Providence by 14 and to Oklahoma State by 13, those aren't two of the better power conference teams.  They also lost by 14 at home to St. Thomas, which looks really bad when you consider St. Thomas lost by 9 to Oklahoma State and by 15 at Arizona State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet SIU-Edwardsville Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -16

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.

Now the Anteaters take a big step down in class here against a rebuilding Pepperdine team.  The Waves went 13-20 last season and now have a first-year head coach in Ed Schilling.  They lose all five starters from last season including three elite scorers in Ajayi (17.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Mallette (15.8 PPG) and Porter (16.2 PPG.  Schilling must replace 11 players who accounted for 2,294 of the 2,403 points Pepperdine scores last year.

After a 77-64 win over Western Illinois, the Waves got blasted 94-76 as 8.5-point dogs at UC-San Diego.  That is another team from the Big West, but UC-San Diego isn't on UC-Irvine's level.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Penn State -7

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites and St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites.  Returning starters Hicks (14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Baldwin (12.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) and Kern (7.3 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (12.7 PPG) and Johnson (11.3 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (15.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been the most impressive of the bunch.

Virginia Tech is in rough shape in Mike Young's 6th season on the job.  The Hokies lost all five starters from last year and return only four scholarship players.  Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has been far less impressive than Penn State.  They won 83-60 over Delaware State as 18-point favorites, won 93-74 over USC Upstate as 24-point favorites and won 58-52 over Winthrop as 9-point favorites.

I'll gladly side with this veteran Nittany Lions team that has dominated the competition with three wins by 30 points or more over this inexperienced Hokies team whose three wins have all come by 23 points or fewer.  Bet Penn State Friday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on St. John's -24

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.  That's a Fordham team that went on to upset Seton Hall 57-56 as 10.5-point dogs, so that result looks even better now.

The Red Storm actually trailed Quinnipiac 39-35 at halftime last game.  They got a ripping from Pitino at halftime and responded outscoring Quinnipiac 61-34 after intermission, actually covering the 20-point spread to boot in a 96-73 victory.  That comeback effort shows what the Red Storm are capable of when locked in.

I expect the Red Storm to be locked in from the jump tonight against Wagner, which lost 75-52 as 17-point dogs at Rutgers in their opener.  That's a Rutgers team that struggled to put away St. Peter's 75-65 in their next game as 16.5-point favorites, so that result looks even worse now.  Wagner lost three starters who all averaged double-digits scoring last year.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to.  And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight.

South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points.

Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites.  The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points.

I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job.  He brings back three starters and several key reserves.  Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac.  All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring.  Bet South Dakota Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on St. John's -20.5

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.

Quinnipiac had a troubling 88-62 loss at Yale as 8-point underdogs in their opener, failing to cover the spread by 18 points.  I don't give them much of a shot of keeping this game competitive in what will likely be their toughest test of the season today.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Louisville CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2

Louisville will likely be the most improved team in the country this season after going just 8-24 last season.  New head coach Pat Kelsey has injected life in the program and the athletics department relies on men's basketball revenue, so he had plenty of money to spend in the transfer portal.

Six upperclassmen transfers who averaged at least 9 points per game this season compromise Louisville's backcourt.  Kasean Pryor was the catalyst to USF's surprising season last year and now he's at Louisville.  James Scott follows Kelsey over from Charleston along with Reyne Smith and Kobe Rodgers.

The Cardinals blasted Morehead State 93-45 as 22-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 26 points.  They take on a Tennessee team that is down this season after losing four starters.  The lone returning starter is PG Zakai Zeigler, who isn't a great scorer.

Tennessee was unimpressive in its 80-64 win over Gardner-Webb as 27.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  Zeigler went 0-for-6 from 3-point range in the loss.  There's just too much on his shoulders here in the early going.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Santa Clara -5

Arizona State lost 103-47 to Duke in the exhibition season.  That was a sign of things to come for the Sun Devils, who are in rough shape this season.  That was also evident in their lackluster 55-48 home win over Idaho State as 18-point favorites.  That's an Idaho State team that lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer only averaged 7.7 points per game.

Arizona State went 14-18 last season, and Bobby Hurley is squarely on the hot season.  The Sun Devils lost four starters from that team including three double-digit scorers.  Clearly there's not much to like about the replacements with those results against Duke and Idaho State.

Herb Sendek is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.  He led the Broncos to a 20-13 season last year, reaching 20 wins four times in the past five years.  Three starters return in G Adama Alpha-Bal (14.4 PPG), F Johnny O'Neil (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and F Christoph Tilly (9.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  Several key reserves return including Knapper (6.1 PPG), Bryan (8.2 PPG), Tongue (4.7 PPG) and Ensminger (4.1 PPG).  Few teams start the season with as much chemistry as the Broncos.

Santa Clara opened with a 85-78 win as 2-point favorites over St. Louis.  That's a St. Louis team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season after nabbing Indiana State Josh Schertz and two of his best players from that team in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope.  They also brought back Gibson Jimmerson (15.8 PPG), who will be the school's all-time leading scorer in a few games.  It was an impressive result, and now the Broncos take a big step down in class here against the awful ASU.  Bet Santa Clara Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -28.5

The No. 20 Cincinnati Bearcats are in the Top 25 this season to start the year and for good reason.  They brought back four starters from a team that finished 22-15 in the rugged Big 12 in their first season in the best college basketball conference in the country.

Three of their four returning starters averaged double-figures last season, plus they get back 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo (6.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Bearcats are off to an impressive start crushing Arkansas-Pine Bluff 109-54 as 37-point favorites.

Morehead State went 26-9 last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  But the Eagles lost their head coach in Preston Spradlin and lost four starters from that team.  First-year head coach Jonathan Mattox, a former team manager, has his hands full to say the least.

The Eagles lost five players that combined for 5,191 of the team's 7,000 minutes last season.  This is a complete rebuild, and that was obvious when they lost their opener 93-45 at Louisville as 22-point dogs.  It's going to take the books some time to catch up on just how bad this team really is.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Florida -24

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

The Gators managed to cover as 11.5-point favorites in a 98-83 win over South Florida despite shooting just 5-of-25 (20%) from 3-point range while the Bulls shot 13-of-27 (48%).  That was an impressive result when you consider how poorly they shot the ball from distance and how great the Bulls shot it.

Jacksonville went 16-17 last season including 5-11 in the Atlantic Sun.  They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the A-Sun again, and it's easy to see why.  They had to grind out a 78-65 win over Division II Trinity Baptist at home in their opener.

Last year in non-conference play, Jacksonville lost by 23 at Xavier, by 51 at Pitt, by 42 at UCF and by 43 at Purdue.  I expect the Gators to make easy work of the Dolphins in this one.  Bet Florida Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +18

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  The Bobcats are the class of the Big Sky again this season with all they return.  I think they will give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight.

Montana State returns three starters in Brian Goracke (13.5 PPG), Brandon Walker (13.1 PPG) and Tyler Patterson (8.2 PPG).  They also return their instant offense off the bench in Patrick McMahon (13.0 PPG), plus two other key reserves.

Wisconsin loses three starters from a team that went 22-14 last season.  The Badgers part ways with AJ Storr (16.8 PPG), Tyler Wahl (10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Chucky Hepburn (9.2 PPG).  They only return two starters in Steven Crowl (11.2 PPG) and Max Klesmit (9.9 PPG), and there's just not a lot to like about what this team did in the offseason.

Wisconsin actually trailed Holy Cross at halftime before pulling away in the 2H for a 85-61 win as 24-point favorites.  That's a Holy Cross team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the Patriot League this season after finishing 10-23 last season and losing a pair of double-digit scorers from that team.  It's was a bad look for the Badgers, and they will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Montana State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Notre Dame -27

Notre Dame head coach Micah Shrewsberry was able to keep his top four scorers and five of his top six scorers from last season in an age where it's hard to keep players around.  So I like the chemistry the Fighting Irish will have from the jump this season.

They were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, but now they are going to be one of the most experienced.  They hang their hats on defense and defense as well as almost anyone in the country, and Markus Burton (17.5 PPG last year) is one of the best players in the country already entering his sophomore season.

Stonehill is expected to be one of the worst teams in the Northeast Conference this season.  The Skyhawks lose their top three scorers and four of five starters from last season's team that went just 4-27.  They can't be any worse, but they won't be much better, either.  I don't think they are capable of staying within 30 points of the Fighting Irish in their opener.  Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5

Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year.  I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been.  He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year.

Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12.  "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous."

Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year).  F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year.  But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico.  They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low.

Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC.  Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here.  The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG).  They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions.  This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Opening Night BLOWOUT on Florida -10

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

But as much as I like the Florida Gators this season, this is more of a fade of South Florida than anything.  Their program is in turmoil not only because they lose their top three scorers to the transfer portal from a team that surprisingly went 25-8 last season, but they also lost their star head coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim from complications due to an illness just a couple weeks ago.  I question how much these players even want to play this season without him.

The Bulls lost Chris Younglood (15.3 PPG, 41.6% 3-pointers), Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG, 39% 3-pointers) and Kasean Pryor (13.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) who were the three biggest reasons for their success last year.  The lone returning starters are Kobe Knox (8.4 PPG) and Brendon Stroud (5.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  I think it's going to start very badly for USF this season with a blowout loss to the Gators.  Bet Florida Monday.

20* Purdue/UConn CBB Championship No-Brainer on UConn -6

The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more.  Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer.

Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball.  The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey.  Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season.  He is the best big man defender in the country.

Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end.  They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to.  This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Alabama/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season.  They have won all 10 games by 13 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay the big number with the Huskies in this one.

UConn has no weaknesses.  The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.  They have held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five consecutive opponents to 58 points or fewer.  Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots that were contested by Donovan Klingan last game.  Illinois managed just 52 points for the game after coming into the game ranked No. 1 in adjusted offense.  It will be a similar fate for Alabama here, which isn't going to shoot nearly as well as it did against Clemson last game.

Alabama has been playing a little better defense in the NCAA Tournament, but they have still allowed an average of 81.5 points per game.  UConn is going to get whatever it wants offensively.  Klingan is going to dominate the paint on both sides of the court as the Crimson Tide have no answer for him.  And the crazy part about UConn's dominance in this tournament is that they have shot poorly from 3-point range, but it hasn't matter.  They are probably due for some positive 3-point shooting regression at the very least.

Alabama is due some negative shooting regression.  The Crimson Tide were on fire in the 2H from 3 against both Clemson and UNC in their last two games.  UConn has the length on the wing to contest more of their shots, and Alabama isn't going to be able to get anything at the rim against Klingan.  Their suspect defense will get exposed as well, and UConn will control the tempo ranking 315th in adjusted tempo, plus they do not allow anything in transition, which is something Alabama relies on.  This is a terrible matchup for the Crimson Tide on all fronts.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* NC State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on NC State +6.5

What more does NC State have to do to get some respect?  The Wolfpack are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two non-covers both coming by 0.5 points.  They beat UNC and Duke in the ACC Tournament, and they beat Marquette outright as 7.5-point dogs in the Sweet 16.

Now the Wolfpack come back as 6.5-point dogs to a Duke team that they just beat in the ACC Tournament.  They have had a big change in philosophy and have the perfect lineup right now.  The Wolfpack feel like they can't lose at this point and a brimming with confidence.

Duke got the lucky break of Houston's best player in Jamal Shead going out with an ankle injury in the 1H when the Cougars were dominating.  It changed the entire game and Duke still had to sneak out a 54-51 victory without Shead.  They won't be so fortunate against NC State this time around.

NC State played the early game against Marquette on Friday while Duke played the late game against Houston.  I don't think that extra rest and preparation for the Wolfpack is being factored into this line enough.  It almost never is in these tournament scenarios, and it's one of the real edges we have on the books.  

Duke was in a war late with Houston Friday night and now has to come back and play a 5:05 EST start time on Sunday.  The Blue Devils lack depth as it is and won't have much left in the tank for NC State.  The Wolfpack controlled their game with Marquette from start to finish and didn't have to exert a ton of effort as a result.  They will actually be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.

NC State is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Wolfpack are 7-1 ATS as neutral court dogs or PK this season.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Bet NC State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson +3.5

The Clemson Tigers are capable of beating anyone in the country.  They have road wins over Alabama and North Carolina this season and should have beaten Duke in a 1-point loss with a weak foul call by the refs just before the buzzer handed the Blue Devils the win.

The Tigers are showing what they are capable of in the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico was a popular pick to make a run, and the Tigers mopped the floor with the Lobos in a 77-56 win as 2-point dogs.  They controlled the game basically the entire way against Baylor in a 72-64 win as 4.5-point dogs.  And they once again controlled the game the entire way in a 77-72 win over Arizona as 7-point dogs.

I think Clemson's versatility offensively will give Alabama trouble as well.  Both big men PJ Hall (18.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Ian Schieffelin (9.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 48.9% 3-pointers) can shoot it from outside, Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG) has been one of the best guards in the tournament, and Joseph Girard (15.0 PPG) is a 41% 3-pointer shooter.

As stated before, Clemson already won on the road at Alabama 85-77 as 8.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 28th.  Hall had 21 points and 8 rebounds, Girard 16 points, Hunter 15 points and Schieffelin 9 points and 14 rebounds.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

The Tigers have the rest advantage after playing the first game on Thursday night and had the luxury of resting and scouting Alabama in the late game.  I always think that's a bigger advantage than what gets factored in as the team that finished first and plays two days later gets more rest and preparation.  

Plus, Alabama just lost sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) to a head injury, and now Nick Pringle (6.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) suffered a leg injury against UNC and was noticeably limping.  The Crimson Tide's lack of depth will catch up to them here.  They are running on fumes after their comeback win over North Carolina from double-digits down in the 2H, especially with the crazy pace they play with.

Clemson is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  Alabama is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Duke/Houston Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars after needing OT to beat Texas A&M.  That's just a team they do not match up great against as they only beat the Aggies by 4 on a neutral earlier this season.  It's also a very underrated Texas A&M team that was playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch and knocked off several other SEC powerhouses this season.

Keep in mind Houston led by double-digits in the final two minutes before a crazy comeback by the Aggies as well.  I think getting battle-tested in that game will benefit the Cougars moving forward.  Four starters fouled out, and a walk on had to ice the game from the FT line in OT.  That kind of win will only make them stronger moving forward when they get in this position again.

This will essentially be a home game for Houston being played in Dallas, TX, and Houston crushed everyone at home this season going 17-0 with nobody staying within 8 points or them.  I don't think that home-court advantage is being factored into this line enough.  They did not get the benefit of the whistle against Texas A&M, but they will likely get that benefit here with a rowdy Cougar crowd.

But this is more of a fade of Duke than anything.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after an easy route to the Sweet 16 blowing out both Vermont and James Madison.  This is a very soft Duke team, and that will get exposed against one of the most physical teams in the country in Houston.  I also don't expect the Blue Devils to shoot as well as they have thus far as McCain opened the James Madison game 6-of-6 from 3.

Now the Blue Devils must go up against the Cougars, who rank 2nd in adjusted defense behind only Iowa State.  The Blue Devils were already without Caleb Foster (7.7 PPG) heading into the NCAA Tournament, and now Jeremy Roach (14.3 PPG, 44.2% 3-pointers) suffered a finger injury against James Madison that leaves him questionable and far from 100% if he plays.  We are getting the Cougars at a discount in the Sweet 16 and we'll take advantage.  Bet Houston Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most disrespected No. 1 seed in the tournament.  Hubert Davis is also one of the most disrespected head coaches in the country as he is now 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament at North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.  They just crushed Michigan State 85-69 as 4-point favorites in the Round of 32.  Now they are only 4-point favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

But as much as I love North Carolina, this is more of a fade of Alabama than anything.  The Crimson Tide had an easy path to get to the Sweet 16 beating College of Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61.  Both wins come with asterisks because both of those opponents shot very poorly, and Grand Canyon tried to beat them with 1-on-1 ball.

Charleston started the game 1-of-17 from 3-point range, while Grand Canyon shot 2-of-20 from 3 for the game.  The Antelopes also shot just 23-of-37 (62.2%) from the FT line.  The Crimson Tide won't be able to benefit from those poor shooting numbers against a great shooting team in UNC.  This is still the worst defensive team left in the tournament and UNC will expose those holes.  

Plus, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) has been battling concussion issues all season and just suffered another one that forced him from the Grand Canyon game.  He is a great shooter and their best perimeter defender.  I have a hard time believing he will be anywhere near 100% for this one if he plays, and if he does there is a high likelihood he gets knocked out again.  I like UNC to roll either way.  Bet North Carolina Thursday.

15* SDSU/UConn Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -11

The UConn Huskies are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS over the past two NCAA Tournament and covering by an average of 13 points per game.  All eight wins have come by 13 points or more, so I'm not worried about laying this 11-point spread against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16.

This was a terrible matchup for SDSU in the Championship Game last year and that fact remains this year.  UConn beat SDSU 76-59 to capture the title last year as 7-point favorites.  No question the Aztecs want revenge, but they have a lot working against them heading into this one.

For starters, this is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs, who have to travel clear across country to Boston to face what is going to be a home-heavy crowd for the Huskies.  It's just a little over an hour from campus.  This is one of the earliest games of the Sweet 16 with tip set for 7:40 EST Thursday night.  The Aztecs didn't get home until early Monday morning after facing Yale in Spokane Sunday night.  They will have hardly any time to prepare for UConn with all this travel.

Teams that have had success against UConn this season have lit it up from 3 like Creighton did in Omaha.  The Huskies have gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS since that humbling defeat, and Bobby Hurley is keeping that chip on their shoulder saying that the NCAA Tournament committee blatantly gave them they most difficult region, which is true.

San Diego State runs its offense through Jaedon LeDee who is a monster inside.  However, he lacks height and will struggle to score against UConn's bigs inside.  The Huskies rank 3rd in effective FG percentage defense and 4th in 2-point percentage allowed.  They just don't allow anything at the rim.  San Diego State is going to have to try to win this game from the 3-point line, where they are terrible ranking 283rd in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.8% on the season.  Terrible matchup for them and terrible travel spot.  Bet UConn Thursday.

20* Texas A&M/Houston TNT No-Brainer on Texas A&M +10.5

Texas A&M is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Aggies are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Mississippi State, Kentucky and Nebraska.  They ran out of gas in their 5-point loss to Florida in their 3rd game in 3 days in the SEC Tournament.

No underdog in this NCAA Tournament has a higher ceiling than Texas A&M.  The Aggies have wins over Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky this season.  They even took Houston to the wire already once in non-conference play earlier this season, losing 70-66 as 7-point dogs on a neutral.  Houston even shot 11-of-27 (40.7%) from 3 in that game while the Aggies only shot 38.2% as a team, yet it was only a 4-point margin.  

I think the Aggies can stay within 10.5-points in the rematch.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They just faced one of the worst teams in the tournament in Longwood and won easily.  They they lost by 28 to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and injuries and lack of depth is a problem for them.  

Texas A&M is elite defensively and will force Houston into some scoring droughts that they are known for.  The Aggies are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and can hang with the Cougars on the boards and in the physicality department.  The Aggies also potentially have the best player on the court in Wade Taylor IV, who scored 25 points in the 98-83 win over Nebraska.  But he isn't their only weapon as both Obaseki (22) and Radford (20) topped 20 as well.

Buzz Williams is 21-7 ATS in March games as the coach of Texas A&M.  Houston is 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Texas A&M Sunday.

20* James Madison/Duke CBS No-Brainer on James Madison +7.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes are 32-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.  The upset Michigan State on the road in non-conference, and they just upset Wisconsin 72-61 as 5.5-point dogs last round to prove they belong.  They dominated that game for all 40 minutes and were never in jeopardy of losing.

Duke had a much easier opponent in the opener with a 64-47 win over a bad Vermont team as 12.5-point favorites.  The Blue Devils lost to UNC twice this season, lost at Wake Forest and lost to NC State in the ACC Tournament.  I think the ACC is just way down this season, so it's going to be hard to trust any ACC team outside North Carolina moving forward.  The Blue Devils are on serious upset alert here.

James Madison is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record this season.  James Madison is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* Oregon/Creighton TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +5.5

The Oregon Ducks are the one NCAA Tournament team that stole a bid by winning their conference tournament that I trust to make a deep run.  The Ducks have won five consecutive games including wins over Arizona, Colorado and South Carolina in their last three.  They have all the momentum right now and are playing their best basketball of the season.

A big reason I trust the Ducks is head coach Dana Altman, who is a proven winner in the NCAA Tournament.  Altman is 17-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when listed as a 9 seed or higher.  The Ducks may also have the two best players ont he floor in C N'Faly Dante (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and G Jermaine Couisnard (16.1 PPG), who had 40 points against South Carolina last game.  Both of these guys have taken their games to the next level down the stretch.

Creighton was in a dog fight with lowly Akron until late in the 2H last game.  They won 77-60 despite shooting 56.5% from the field and Akron only shooting 37.9%.  The Zips shot 6-of-27 (22%) from 3 as well, which is uncharacteristic for them, while the Bluejays shot 10-of-17 (59%) from 3.  They won't have those kinds of shooting numbers in their favor here when they take a big step up in class against surging Ducks.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Oakland/NC State TBS No-Brainer on Oakland +6.5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament.

They got through Texas Tech on pure adrenaline, plus the fact that the Red Raiders play zero defense.  This is the game I think all these games will take their toll as the Wolfpack will now be playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  They are going to have to think because Oakland runs a great zone defense, and it's a very tough scheme to prepare for in one day.  I don't think NC State will be ready for it.

I like that the Golden Grizzlies acted like they expected to beat Kentucky after the game.  They feel like they belong, and I expect them to pull the outright upset here Saturday over the Wolfpack to advance to the Sweet 16.  They will have the best player on the floor in F Trey Townsend (16.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG), and he is surrounded by two great shooters in Blake Lampman (12.8 PPG, 36.5% 3-pointers) and Jack Gohike (12.8 PPG, 37.8% 3-pointers), who hit 10 3's himself to lead the upset of Kentucky.

The win over Kentucky was no fluke as Oakland went 2-3 SU & 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, Illinois, Drake, Xavier and Kentucky this season taking all five of those teams to the wire despite playing all five on the road.  The Golden Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* Washington State/Iowa State TNT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament in 5 of the last 11 years.  A big reason they have so much success in the Big 12 Tournament is because it is known as 'Hilton South' with the huge following they get from fans with only a 3.5-hour drive to Kansas City.  Well, now they are playing in Omaha, which is only a 2-hour drive from their campus.  They have a massive home-court advantage once again for the first two rounds of this tournament.

The Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season in these tournaments.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, beating Kansas State by 19 as 8-point favorites, Baylor by 14 as 2-point favorites and Houston by 28 as 5-point dogs.  They opened with a 17-point win over South Dakota State on Thursday as 15-point favorites.  They were up 25 in the final four minutes before calling off the dogs, so that 17-point win wasn't as indicative of how dominant the win was.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Washington State.

Washington State thrives when they play a soft team like Drake and Arizona that aren't very physical.  That's why they are able to upset Arizona twice and get by Drake last game with an 8-point comeback in the final seven minutes.  They won't have that same luxury against Iowa State, which will match and exceed their physicality.  The Cyclones rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted defense, and they are a much better offensive team than the Cougars, who lack shooting.  They won't be able to keep up offensively in this one.

Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Cyclones are a combined 25-0 SU in home games, Big 12 Tournament games and NCAA Tournament games that have been played close to home this season.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina -3.5

This will feel like a home game for the North Carolina Tar Heels being played in Charlotte.  That's not being factored into this line enough.  The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overaall with a pair of wins over Duke both home and away this season.

The Tar Heels have no weaknesses.  They have two stud guards in RJ Davis (21.4 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (7.3 PPG, 4.1 APG) who can both get to the rim whenever they want.  They have two stud big men in Armando Bacot (14.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) and Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) and a sharp shooter in Cormac Ryan (11.3 PPG).

Michigan State was fortunate to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans went 3-5 SU in their final eight games this season including home losses to Iowa and Ohio State.   They are prone to scoring droughts and are not the best shooting team.  They only make 12 FT per game and struggle to get to the rim as well.  Any droughts in this one and they are going to get run out of the building.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games.  This line should at least be -6 in favor of the Tar Heels.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Gonzaga/Kansas CBS No-Brainer on Gonzaga -3.5

Gonzaga made easy work of an upstart McNeese State team 86-65 and should still be fresh as a result.  The Bulldogs improved to 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They upset both Kentucky and St. Mary's on the road during this stretch.

Kansas shot 60.3% from the field and still needed a blown foul call from the refs to put away a bad Samford team 93-89 as 7.5-point favorites in the opener.  It continued a trend of poor play to close the season as the Jayhawks are now 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head coach Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the NCAA Tournament prior to it.  That leaves the Jayhawks very short-handed and this is a tough spot for them having to play their 2nd game in 3 days after needing to go to the wire to beat Samford on Thursday.  They went with basically a 6-man rotation against Samford and had four starters play anywhere from 35 to 39 minutes apiece.  They will wear down in the 2H as the Bulldogs pull away after intermission.

This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs with it being played out West in Salt Lake City.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road/neutral games against good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Jayhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet Gonzaga Saturday.

15* CBB Friday BLOWOUT on TCU -3

Utah State is 1-19 SU in its last 20 NCAA Tournament Games.  The Aggies had a successful regular season winning the MWC regular season title.  But they are reeling coming into the Big Dance, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They needed OT to beat Fresno State twice, only beat Air Force by 12 as 17.5-point home favorites, and lost by 16 to San Diego State in the MWC Tournament.

TCU went 6-4 ATS down the stretch with narrow losses to Texas Tech by 1 and UCF by 2.  They beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament opener and I just trust this team.  The Big 12 was the toughest conference in the country, so I can see some of these middling Big 12 teams doing well in the NCAA Tournament because they are so battle-tested.

Utah State suffered 5 of its 6 losses away from home this season including losses by 13 at New Mexico, by 14 at San Diego State and by 20 at Colorado State.  They also lost by 16 to SDSU on a neutral and by 14 at home to Nevada.  Utah State didn't face a single Power 5 team all season.  Their non-conference schedule could not have been much easier, and they beat Santa Clara by 2 and San Francisco by 1 in their two toughest non-conference games.  They also lost at Bradley.  I'd argue TCU will be the best team they have faced all season.

TCU has elite size on the interior that will help them match up well with Great Osobor, who is Utah State's best player.  The Horned Frogs also have great length on the wing to make life difficult on Utah State's overmatched guards, who will be at an athletic disadvantage.  The Horned Frogs are favored for good reason despite being the higher seed.  Utah State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Bet TCU Friday.

20* James Madison/Wisconsin CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on James Madison +4.5

James Madison is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Dukes went 31-3 this season with their three losses coming to Appalachian State (twice) and Southern Miss.  Keep in mind Appalachian State beat Auburn earlier this season.

But what lets me know James Madison can play with Wisconsin is the fact that they went to Michigan State and upset the Spartans in East Lansing.  They won't be scared at all to face a Big Ten opponent like Wisconsin, and I like the fact that this game is being played in Brooklyn, NY so the Badgers likely won't have many fans there.  It's less than a 6 hour drive for James Madison fans and they will have the home-court advantage if anything.

Wisconsin is a tired team after having to play 4 games in 4 days including an OT game against Purdue in the semifinals.  They ran out of gas in the 2H against Illinois in the Championship Game and lost.  I don't think they'll be fully recovered in time for the Round of 64.  James Madison made easy work of its three opponents in the Sun Belt Tournament winning by a combined 42 points and has been off since March 11th.  The Dukes will be the much fresher team for this matchup.

James Madison is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  The Dukes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against a team with a winning record.  I think the Dukes make the Sweet 16, and it starts with an upset win over Wisconsin Friday night.  Bet James Madison Friday.

15* Charleston/Alabama TruTV ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -9.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  The Crimson Tide have gone 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But they faced an absolutely brutal schedule during this stretch with road losses to Kentucky and Florida (twice) as well as a home loss to Tennessee.  They also beat Arkansas and Florida at home while winning by 14 at Ole Miss.

When you consider that Alabama also face the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton and Arizona in the non-conference, the Crimson Tide grade out as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the entire country.  To say they are battle-tested would be an understatement.  Now they have had a full week off since the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament to rest.  They will be rejuvenated, and they are a fully healthy right now and a dangerous No. 4 seed.

The Crimson Tide get to take a big step down in class here against Charleston, which isn't as strong as it was a year ago.  The Cougars showed very poorly in non-conference.  They lost three consecutive games on a neutral to Duquesne by 18, Vermont by 9 and Wyoming by 7.  They also lost by 16 at Florida Atlantic.  It's also concerning Charleston needed OT to beat Stony Brook as a 10-point favorite in the CAA Championship Game.  Alabama will be by far the best team they have faced this season.

I love the matchup for the Crimson Tide because they attack the rim or shoot 3-pointers, and the Cougars were the 5th-worst team in the entire country in protecting the rim on close 2-pointers.  Alabama is going to get what it wants inside for 40 minutes.  Both teams love to run as Alabama ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and Charleston ranks 58th.  More possessions favors the better team and the favorite.  Charleston is actually much worse defensively than Alabama as the Cougars rank 175th in adjusted defense, largely because they cannot protect the rim.  

Alabama is 15-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Crimson Tide are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Charleston) - off four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.    This is a very low spread for a 4/13 matchup and it really shows that we are getting to 'buy low' on the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* NCAA Tournament BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue -26.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Now Grambling State has to face the best team they have faced yet in No. 1 seed Purdue.  It's also a highly motivated Boilermakers team after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.  They won't take Grambling State lightly, and it's a very tough spot for the Tigers considering they had a 15-point 2H comeback against Montana State on Wednesday and had to go to OT in an 88-81 victory.

Grambling State was able to get to the rim against Montana State and take advantage of the undersized Bobcats in the 2H.  They won't be able to do that against Purdue, which ranks 45th in average height led by mountain Zach Edey inside.  The Boilermakers will force the Tigers to try and shoot over the top of them from 3.  Grambling State averages just five 3-point makes on 15 attempts per game.  It's just not their game, and the matchup is a terrible one for them.

Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  That includes a 99-67 win over Texas Southern as 32-point favorites, which is a fellow SWAC team and ranked very similarly to Grambling State in KenPom.  Grambling State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  This line should be 30 or higher.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +7

UAB can beat anyone when they are on their game.  The Blazers went 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games of the season beating Temple by 28 as 6.5-point road favorites, SMU by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites, and then made easy work of Wichita State by 12, USF by 10 and Temple by 16 en route to winning the AAC Tournament.

I think the AAC as a whole is better than it gets credit for which is a big reason why Florida Atlantic didn't run through it like everyone expected.  And UAB showed well in the non-conference, too.  They lost by 2 to Bradley, by 1 to Clemson, upset Maryland and upset Drake.  They can play with San Diego State.

I think San Diego State gets too much respect for making the run to the championship game last year.  They were in dog fights every game and were simply fortunate in close games.  They are the most over-seeded team from the Mountain West getting a No. 5 seed.  The rest of the Mountain West got the shaft, and we'll take advantage here and fade the over-seeded Aztecs.

San Diego State is a tired team after making the MWC Championship Game only to lose to New Mexico.  They needed OT to beat UNLV, and five of their last six games were decided by 8 points or fewer.  I question how much gas they have left in the tank.  I know it won't be enough to put away UAB by 7-plus points, especially since the Aztecs struggle to get easy buckets on offense and are a terrible 3-point shooting team, ranking 307th in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.

UAB is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Blazers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 tournament games.  The Aztecs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing two consecutive games as favorites.  UAB is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Blazers are 15-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  UAB is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  SDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.

 The Aztecs haven't been nearly as good away from Viejas Arena going just 10-9 SU & 5-14 ATS in all games played away from home.  This is also a sleepy start time for a West coast team with a 1:45 EST which will be like a 10:45 AM body clock game for the Aztecs.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The Blazers are used to playing at this time being in the East.  Bet UAB Friday.

15* NC State/Texas Tech CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas Tech -5

NC State just won five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament.  Four of the five games were decided by single-digits, so it took everything they had and then some.  I question how much the Wolfpack have left in the tank for the NCAA Tournament, plus they get minimal rest having to play on Thursday instead of Friday.

Texas Tech went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season including double-digit wins over Baylor by 10 at BYU by 14.  The lone loss came to Houston, which is to be expected against the conference champs.  I think Texas Tech is an absolute sleeper in the NCAA Tournament and could make a run.

NC State takes a ton of bad shots from the mid range which is why they cannot be trusted.  Texas Tech is a great shooting team ranking 37th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%).  NC State ranks 246th defending the 3 allowing 34.8% from distance.  That makes this a great matchup for the Red Raiders, who are a couple notches better than NC State on offense and defense.

Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolfpack's run comes to an abrupt end with a blowout loss to the Red Raiders tonight.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* NCAA Tournament DOG OF THE WEEK on McNeese State +6

McNeese State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about.  The Cowboys went 30-3 this season including a 76-65 road win at VCU, an 81-60 road win at UAB and a 87-76 road win at Michigan in the non-conference.  VCU was one win from the Big Dance, UAB made the Big Dance, and Michigan was playing much better back when McNeese State beat them.

Gonzaga has taken a big step back this season.  The Bulldogs did not deserve a No. 5 seed.  They were just a bubble team prior to beating St. Mary's in the regular season finale.  They went on to lose to St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament.  The Bulldogs have a lot of defensive holes and they aren't a great shooting team.

One thing I love about McNeese State is they take care of the basketball and force turnovers.  The Cowboys rank 25th in turnover percentage on offense and 6th in turnover percentage on defense.  They also rank 7th in 3-point shooting, making 39.4% on the season as a team.  They have a lot of big-time transfers for head coach Will Wade, including TCU transfer Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.0 SPG), who will be the best player on the court.  Bet McNeese State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday BLOWOUT on Illinois -11.5

Morehead State is a popular underdog pick in the opening round.  That's why this line has been bet down from an opener of 13.5 to 11.5.  But now I think is a great time to go contrarian and back Illinois as a much shorter favorite than they were at the open.

A big reason for the move is because Big Ten teams that won their conference tournament have been upset in the first round the last three years.  Illinois was one of those teams back in 2021.  But they will be made aware of this, and I expect them to avoid the letdown.

Illinois has gone 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games with its lone loss coming to Purdue.  The Fighting Illini have done damage on the road during this stretch upsetting Wisconsin by 8 as 3-point road dogs and topping a desperate Iowa team by 12 as 2-point favorites.  They won all three games in the Big Ten Tournament including covering the last two scoring 98 points on Nebraska and 93 more on Wisconsin.  They rank 2nd in the entire country in adjusted offense and are a tough team to tame.

One quick look at what Morehead State did in non-conference play and it's easy to see why I'm willing to lay the points with Illinois.  The Eagles lost 105-73 at Alabama, 87-57 at Purdue and 74-51 at Penn State.  So there's two Big Ten opponents to compare them to, and I expect another blowout in favor of the Big Ten here.

Illinois is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Fighting Illini are 11-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  They have done their best work on the highway this season, and they will get plenty of fans traveling to Omaha to watch them crush Morehead State.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

15* Grambling State/Montana State First 4 ANNIHILATOR on Montana State -3.5

This is more of a fade of Grambling State than anything.  The SWAC ranks 33rd of 33 conferences according to KenPom.  One look at Grambling State's results in non-conference play and it's easy to see why.

In their first 13 games this season, the Tigers went 3-10 SU with their three wins coming against UNT Dallas, Champion Christian and Biblical Studies, who aren't even ranked in KenPom.  The 10 losses were absolutely laughable.  They included blowout losses by 32 to Colorado, by 55 to Iowa State, by 30 to Dayton and by 39 to Florida.

Montana State beat California in the non-conference and had narrow losses to good Seattle (by 3), Green Bay (by 1) and Long Beach State (by 6) teams.  The Bobcats were very impressive down the stretch going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games.  

They upset Idaho by 14 as 1-point road dogs, lost in OT at Eastern Washington by 4 as 8.5-point dogs, upset Weber State by 12 as 5-point dogs, upset Weber State again by 9 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Sacramento State by 3 as 5-point favorites and crushed Montana by 15 as 6.5-point dogs.  This team is clearly grossly overvalued here of late with four outright wins as underdogs among those six games.  They make easy work of Grambling State tonight.  Bet Montana State Wednesday.

20* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Duquesne +2.5

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won seven consecutive games and have gone 14-3 SU in their last 17 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 and followed it up with a 70-60 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday to prove how good they are and that they belong.  They'll remain playing with a chip on their shoulder today as underdogs to VCU.

VCU has had an easier path to the Championship Game and their games have bene closer than Duquesne.  Also, the Dukes won the lone regular season meeting 69-59 as 5-point road dogs at VCU on March 5th, which is a very tough place to win.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today on a neutral.

Duquesne is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a neutral court underdog or PK.  The Dukes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Sunday.

20* Marquette/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -8.5

The UConn Huskies are a juggernaut and the best team in the country.  They have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall despite being a public team with everyone knowing how good they are.  The books just haven't been able to set their spreads high enough.

Marquette is without PG Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 7.6 APG, 40% 3-pointers) and cannot compete with UConn without him.  They lost 74-67 as 5-point home underdogs without him, and 81-53 as 7-point road dogs with him.  This will essentially be a home game for the Huskies as their fans take over Madison Square Garden.  Playing their 3rd game in 3 days including one in OT, the Golden Eagles' lack of depth will really get tested today.

UConn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 neutral court games.  One of those losses came by 2 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament last year, and the Huskies have not forgotten.  They will get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight.  Bet UConn Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET SHOCKER GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Iowa State Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.  They made easy work of Kansas State 76-57 in the opener and easy work of Baylor 76-62 yesterday.

Nobody has played Houston tougher than Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 57-53 at home in their first meeting and lost 73-65 to the Cougars on the road in their 2nd meeting.  Nobody else stayed within single-digits of Houston on the road.  But now it will be the Cyclones with the home-court advantage with probably the best following from fans in the entire country for their conference tournament.

Houston is short-handed right now and not a very deep team.  That makes it tougher for them to play 3 games in 3 days.  They are without Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker, plus J'Wan Roberts is battling a knee injury and questionable for this championship game.  He is quietly their most important player doing all the dirty work down low, and Tugler also provided some of it before he went out.

TJ Otzelberger is 14-2 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game as the coach of Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 conference tournament games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS, including 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as 4.5-point dogs to Illinois today.

Both Illinois and Nebraska got a bye into the quarterfinals.  But Nebraska is going to be the fresher team because they crushed Indiana 93-66 yesterday, while Illinois needed a double-digit comeback to beat Ohio State 77-74.  The Fighting Illini basically trailed the entire way despite Ohio State playing its 3rd game in 3 days and being a tired team.

Now the Huskers have their sights set on revenge from an 87-84 (OT) road loss at Illinois.  The Huskers already proved they could play with the Fighting Illini on the road, and now I love their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral in the rematch.

Nebraska is 9-1 ATS with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Huskers are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 tournament games.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* St. Bonaventure/Duquesne Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Duquesne PK

Duquesne has been grossly undervalued since late January.  The Dukes won six consecutive games and have gone 13-3 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They beat Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton 65-57 last game to prove how good they are right now.  They also swept St. Bonaventure in the regular season winning 54-50 at home and 75-69 on the road.

St. Bonaventure is very fortunate to be in the semifinals.  The Bonnies beat La Salle 75-73 as 8.5-point favorites in the opener and Loyola-Chicago 75-74 (2 OT) in the quarterfinals for two wins by a combined 3 points.  Plus, Loyola-Chicago choked not scoring a single point in the final 6:02 of regulation after being in complete control, getting outscored 11-0 to close out the game to go to OT.

Duquesne is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Dukes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Bet Duquesne Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are playing with double-revenge today.  They lost by 6 at home and by 8 on the road in their two meetings with Purdue this season.  So they have shown they can play with the Boilermakers, and I think getting 6.5 points with them is a tremendous value today.

The Badgers have saved their best basketball for last going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They crushed Maryland 87-56 in the Big Ten Tournament opener and were never really threatened late in their 70-61 win over Northwestern yesterday.  

Purdue was life and death with Michigan State in a 67-62 win yesterday.  PG Braden Smith (13.0 PPG, 7.2 APG, 44.6% 3-pointers) suffered a bad knee injury in that win over the Spartans.  He was hobbled pretty badly and I wouldn't be surprised if he sits today.  Matt Painter would be wise to sit him, but if he does play he won't be anywhere near 100%.

Greg Gard is 20-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 tournament games.  Purdue is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 March games.  Wisconsin is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -2

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 72-58 win over Utah yesterday.

Washington State had a much easier opponent in Stanford yesterday.  The Cougars are already in the NCAA Tournament and won't be as motivated as Colorado, which is somehow still on the bubble despite winning seven consecutive games.  The Buffaloes have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it, and that chip will remain tonight.

Washington State is 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on NC State +3

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cavaliers are going to make the NCAA Tournament but they shouldn't.  They rank 9th in luck of 362 teams in the country, which is a stat that factors in wins in close games.  They have a ton of them.

The Cavaliers had another lucky win yesterday beating Boston College 66-60 (OT).  They trailed basically the entire way and never led by more than 2 points in regulation.  Their luck runs out today against a healthy, motivated NC State team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

NC State has been impressive in this ACC Tournament.  They upset Syracuse 83-65 in the opener and then upset Duke 74-69 as 11-point dogs yesterday.  They carry that momentum into yet another upset win over Virginia even though I believe they are the better team and should be favored.

Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games off a win by 6 points or less.  NC State is 35-18 ATS in its last 53 conference tournament games.  Bet NC State Friday.

15* Indiana/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -3.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 22-9 SU & 20-11 ATS, including 12-8 SU & 13-7 ATS in Big Ten play.  They remain undervalued as only 3.5-point favorites over Indiana today.

Nebraska has the rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.  Meanwhile, Indiana was life and death yesterday in a 61-59 victory over Penn State, which had played the day prior and was at a rest disadvantage. Indiana has basically a 6-man rotation right now without Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.6 APG), which makes this back-to-back situation for them even worse than most teams.

Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Huskers beat the Hoosiers 86-70 at home and 85-70 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Nebraska is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* Pitt/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers remain one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 10-2 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.  They made easy work of Wake Forest yesterday, and now they have a great shot to pull the upset over North Carolina today.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Tournament semifinal games.  Bet Pittsburgh Friday.

20* St. John's/UConn Big East No-Brainer on St. John's +9.5

St. John's has been on a tear since head coach Rick Pitino called out his team.  They have gone 6-0 SU in their last six games overall including an 80-66 upset win over Creighton and blowout wins over Butler by 23 on the road and Seton Hall by 19 in the opener of the Big East Tournament yesterday.

Now the Red Storm have their sights set on revenge on the UConn Huskies.  They led UConn at halftime in each of their first two meetings this season before falling apart in the 2H.  It has been a problem for the Red Storm all season until lately.  They are closing these games out, and I think they will close this one out too with a great chance to pull off the outright upset.

Asking UConn to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  UConn was in more of a dog fight with Xavier yesterday than they should have been trailing 10-0 early.  The Huskies thus had to play their starters in the 2H to put them away.  They have benefited from a pretty easy schedule here down the stretch and will get more of a fight than they bargained for from the Red Storm here tonight.  Bet St. John's Friday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers made easy work of Maryland 87-56 yesterday.  They got to rest their starters in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game against Northwestern.  That's why I'm willing to lay the points with the Badgers despite being at a rest disadvantage against the Wildcats, who got a bye into the quarterfinals.

The Wildcats are vulnerable right now playing without two key players in G Ty Berry (11.6 PPG, 43.3% 3-pointers) and C Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) to really hamper their depth.  They lost two of their final three games to close out the regular season without these guys.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -7

South Florida is 23-6 this season including 16-2 in AAC play and still lacking the respect they deserve in the AAC Tournament.  Somehow this team is on the wrong side of the bubble, and the Bulls have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because of it.  That chip will be bigger than ever in the AAC Tournament.

The Bulls have the rest advantage over East Carolina in this one.  They got a bye into the quarterfinals while East Carolina was life and death with Tulsa yesterday in an 84-79 victory.  The Pirates won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls, who won their lone meeting on the road 71-60 earlier this season.

South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -3.5

Colorado is a dangerous team when fully healthy and are proving it here down the stretch.  The Buffaloes are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with four wins by double-digits, plus road wins over both USC and Oregon.  That includes their 89-65 home win over Utah on February 24th.

It should be another blowout in the Buffaloes' favor in the rematch due to their rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while Utah had to play Arizona State yesterday.  While the Utes made easy work of the Sun Devils, things will come much tougher for them today against a Colorado team that has a legit shot to run the table and win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Utah is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 points or more, and 0-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss this season.  Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* Villanova/Marquette Big East ANNIHILATOR on Villanova +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Villanova.  They needed a 3-pointer in the final seconds to beat DePaul as a 24.5-point favorite yesterday.  Nobody wants to back this team now.  The Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder because of all the hate they have been receiving.  They are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and a win over Marquette today may very well get them in.

The Golden Eagles are without G Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) right now.  Kolek scored 53 points combined in his two meetings with Villanova earlier this season, so not having him on the court in the 3rd meeting here will make all the difference and gives the Wildcats a legit shot to pull off the upset.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor -4.5

Baylor got a bye into the quarterfinals and has a massive rest advantage over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 90-85 win over West Virginia in the opener, and then beating a dead Kansas team yesterday that was without its two best players in Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.

Now the Bearcats take a big step up in class here against a Baylor team that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now.  The Bears just got Langston Love back from injury for their run through these conference and NCAA Tournaments.  Cincinnati is not a deep team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days will really test that depth.

Baylor is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 40 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games, including a perfect 9-0 ATS since Scott Drew took over in Waco.  Cincinnati is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

15* Boston College/Virginia ACC ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +5

Rarely will I back a team playing their 3rd game in 3 days against a team that hasn't played yet in these conference tournaments.  Usually the team playing their 3rd game in 3 days runs out of gas, but that shouldn't be the case for Boston College.

The Eagles made easy work of Miami 81-65 two days ago and then easy work of Clemson 76-55 yesterday.  They are a pretty deep team with a 9-man rotation, and four of their five starters played 31 or fewer minutes yesterday.  They should still be plenty fresh for Virginia tonight.

Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country and doesn't belong in the Big Dance.  The Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Two of the three wins came by 4 points or less, including a 4-point win over Boston College on February 28th, which places the Eagles in revenge mode as well.

Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games away from home after winning two of its last three games.  The Eagles are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and I'll ride that momentum today in a game they are more than capable of pulling off the outright upset for a 3rd consecutive day.  Bet Boston College Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Washington State -8.5

Washington State has the rest advantage over Stanford today.  The Cougars got a bye into the Pac-12 quarterfinals, while the Cardinal needed an 18-point 2H comeback to beat rival California yesterday.  Not only that, but the Cardinal needed OT to get the job done, so they are extra tired.

The only team Stanford has been able to beat here of late is lowly California, who they get up for because they are rivals.  The Cardinal are 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall with both wins coming of Cal, and all six losses coming by 10 points or more.  Four starters played at least 36 minutes for Stanford yesterday, and they won't have much left in the tank for Washington State tonight.

Washington State beat Stanford 89-75 on the road and 72-59 at home in their two meetings earlier this season.  Another double-digit victory in their favor will be the result with their rest advantage tonight.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

15* K-State/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -5.5

The T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is known as Hilton South.  The Cyclones always get a great following for the Big 12 Tournament and it's like the same home-court advantage they have when playing in Hilton, and they didn't lose once at home this season.

The Cyclones have the rest advantage today after getting a bye into the quarterfinals, while the Wildcats needed a big comeback to beat Texas 78-74 yesterday.  The Wildcats are not a deep team and had five players play at least 29 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones today.

Iowa State also wants revenge from a 65-58 loss at Kansas State in the regular season finale.  They had just accomplished a perfect home record with a 68-63 home win over BYU three days prior and were in a clear letdown spot.  Now the Wildcats will have their full attention in the rematch here tonight.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  The Cyclones are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 60-38 ATS in its last 98 games when revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -1.5

Firing head coach Chris Holtmann was the best thing that could have happened to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses both coming on the road to Wisconsin and Minnesota.  They upset Purdue at home and Michigan State on the road during this stretch.

The Buckeyes have all of the momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament and I trust them to get revenge on Iowa after falling 79-77 to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on February 2nd.  The Hawkeyes don't play defense and they lack good big men inside.  They are just a very hard team to trust.

Ohio State is 8-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola-Chicago -2

Loyola-Chicago got a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage over St. Bonaventure today.  The Bonnies were life and dead with La Salle in a 75-73 win yesterday.  They only have a 7-man rotation and their starters played 40, 40, 39, 34 and 22 minutes yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* TCU/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU +10.5

TCU is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Horned Frogs can make their case with an upset win over Houston today.  They will be 'all in' to get this win, and catching 10.5 points is a nice value on a desperate Horned Frogs team today.

Houston was dominant at home this season, but they were vulnerable on the highway.  In fact, each of their last 11 road games were either losses or wins by 8 points or less.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing TCU pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Houston doesn't need this win as they are locked into a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Bet TCU Thursday.

15* Wake Forest/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +2

Pitt has a bye into the quarterfinals and has the rest advantage today over Wake Forest, which is a big reason why I'm on the Panthers.  Plus, this is one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 9-2 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, yet they are on the bubble.  This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as a result.

Wake Forest is not a deep team and will not handle this back-to-back situation very well as a result.  The Demon Deacons had to play their starters big minutes yesterday in a 72-59 win over Notre Dame.  All five starters played at least 26 minutes, including 36 from Sallis and 35 from Miller.  Their bench provided a total of 11 points in the win as this is one of the worst benches in the country.

Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Maryland/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin has the rest advantage over Maryland today.  The Badgers got a bye into the quarterfinals while the Terrapins beat Rutgers 65-51 yesterday.  Seven players played at least 21 minutes for the Terrapins yesterday, and I question how much they have left in the tank for the Badgers.

Rutgers pretty much quit late in the season, so the Terrapins are getting too much respect from that win.  Maryland is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  It's a great 'buy low' spot on the Badgers, who went 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in their final 11 games to close out the regular season.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +2.5

UMass has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while VCU was in a dog fight with Fordham yesterday in a 69-62 win.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing UMass.  Plus, the minutemen beat the Rams 74-52 in their lone meeting this season, and I trust head coach Frank Martin to have his team ready.

UMass is 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UMass Thursday.

15* St. Joe's/Richmond Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on Richmond -2.5

Richmond has the rest advantage today getting a bye into the quarterfinals while St. Joe's was in a dog fight with George Mason yesterday.  St. Joe's saw all 5 starters play at least 34 minutes and they are lacking depth with only a 7-man rotation.  That's a big factor as to why I'm backing Richmond.

The Spiders beat the Hawks 73-66 in their lone meeting this season.  Richmond has been undervalued all year going 21-9 ATS in all game, including 14-4 ATS as a favorite.  The Spiders are also a perfect 11-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season, and 8-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Bet Richmond Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Villanova -22.5

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-20 SU & 7-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall 10 of those losses by double-digits and eight by 19 points or more.

Villanova is squarely on the bubble and cannot afford to take DePaul lightly.  They haven't take the Blue Demons lightly in their two meetings already this season to say the least.  Villanova beat DePaul 84-48 on the road on December 23rd and 94-69 at home on January 12th.  Another 23-plus point victory in their favor is in store today to cover this number.  This will be our last opportunity to fade DePaul this season, and we'll take full advantage.

DePaul is 0-6 ATS when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

Michigan is just ready for this season to be over.  The Wolverines have gone 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with all eight losses by 8 points or more and seven losses by double-digits.  They should be catching more than 6.5 points to Penn State today.

Penn State has improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades.  The Nittany Lions are 6-5 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-69 win over Maryland and will make easy work of this lifeless Michigan team tonight.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference tournament games.  Michigan is 0-13 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  This will be our last chance to fade the Wolverines this season and we'll take advantage.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne -6.5

Saint Louis was life and dead yesterday with Rhode Island in a 74-71 win.  The Billikens only have a 7-man rotation and Jimerson played 39 minutes, Hargrove Jr. 36 and Medley 34 yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Duquesne Dukes today.

I'll gladly back Duquesne with the rest advantage today.  The Dukes have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall including an 81-66 win as 9.5-point home favorites over St. Louis.  This is a short number for them to be laying in the rematch, especially with the rest advantage.

St. Louis is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Bet Duquesne Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +10.5

The Georgetown Hoyas have been known for making runs in the Big East Tournament even when they had poor regular seasons.  I think they have what it takes to give Providence a run for its money in the opener today.  They only lost by 5 to Xavier and by 8 at St. John's in two of their last three games.

The other game resulted in a 71-58 home loss to Providence.  But Georgetown was coming off that deflating loss to Xavier and didn't show up.  Head coach Ed Cooley called his team out, and they responded by giving St. John's a scare on the road in the finale.  That was a desperate St. John's team trying to make the tournament and playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.

Providence is not playing well at all.  The Friars are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 22 at Marquette, by 11 at home to Villanova and by 14 at home to UConn.  Providence shot 49.1% in that last meeting with Georgetown while the Hoyas shot 35.1%.  Some positive shooting regression is coming Georgetown's way in this one.

Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Georgetown is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games when revenging a home loss.  Bet Georgetown Wednesday.

15* Fordham/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5

Fordham needed OT yesterday to put away Davidson 71-63.  The Rams aren't a deep team going with a 7-man rotation and all seven played at least 21 minutes yesterday, including 45 from Kochera, 41 from Huffman, 34 from Logan and 34 from Durkin.  They won't have much left in the tank today against VCU, which will ramp up the defensive pressure and make life difficult on the Rams.

It's a great 'buy low' spot on VCU after closing out the regular season with three consecutive losses.  But they arguably came to the three best teams in the Atlantic 10 in Richmond (by 3) and Dayton (by 5) on the road, as well as Duquesne at home, which was a sandwich spot.  Now they take a big step down in class here and will be highly motivated to get back on track.

VCU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Fordham.  Six of the seven wins have come by 15 points or more, including their 75-60 win at Fordham on February 6th in their lone meeting this season.  Fordham is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.   Fordham is 3-10 ATS off an ATS win this season.  VCU is 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have battled their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, as well as upset road wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from their lone loss during this stretch which came 95-85 at Illinois.  That was a close game throughout before the Fighting Illini pulled away in the final minutes.  Iowa actually led 66-61 with 11 minutes left.  They know they can play with this team, and now they get them at home where they are 12-3 SU this season.

This is a terrible spot for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are coming off a 77-71 home loss to Purdue in which they had a shot to win the Big Ten regular season title had they won that game.  But now they are locked into the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and have nothing to play for.  They won't be that motivated to beat Iowa again after just beating them two weeks ago.  I expect a very flat effort from the Fighting Illini as a result.

Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a game with 24 or more assists.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +6.5

The UNLV Rebels are riding the quietest 10-1 run you will ever see.  Most left this team for dead, but the Rebels have played their way back onto the bubble by upsetting the likes of New Mexico on the road as well as Colorado State and San Diego State at home.

Now the Rebels desperately want revenge on their biggest rivals in Nevada, which handed them their only loss during this 10-1 run.  It was a game they let get away as they were in control of the game deep into the 2H, but poor FT shooting and turnovers allowed the Wolf Pack to erase a big deficit and steal a 69-66 win at UNLV.

Nevada is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNLV again as a result.  The Wolf Pack are also coming off a 76-66 upset road win at Boise State, setting them up for a prime letdown spot.  They haven't been nearly as good at home as they have been on the road this season.  They have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three home games including an upset loss to New Mexico.

UNLV is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 7-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Nevada is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 home games off three consecutive conference wins.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Seton Hall -23.5

Seton Hall is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.The Pirates came up big with a 66-56 home win over fellow bubble team Villanova in their last game.  They cannot afford a letdown here against DePaul if they want to make the Big Dance, so they will be fully focused and put away the Blue Demons in blowout fashion.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-19 SU & 6-13 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.9 points per game.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall nine of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

That includes their 72-39 home loss to Seton Hall in their first meeting this season on January 30th.  That 33-point loss will be a sign up things to come today, and it's why I'm willing to lay the big number here on the Pirates in the rematch as 23.5-point favorites knowing that they'll be motivated to get margin.

DePaul is 4-14 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-12 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +10.5

Providence is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Friars could really use a signature win here against UConn to punch their ticket.  They will be max motivated to do just that at home on Senior Day tonight.

I think their effort will be good enough to stay within this 10.5-point spread at the very least.  UConn clinched the Big East regular season title and swept Marquette with a 74-67 road win last time out.  I think this is a flat spot for the Huskies now as they will be looking ahead to the Big East tournament and are a lock to get a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament regardless of how they finish this season.

Providence already showed it could hang with UConn on the road in their first meeting this season, losing 74-65 as 13-point road dogs on January 31st.  They can certainly keep it within single-digits again at home in the rematch here as 10.5-point dogs.

Providence is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog or PK.  The Friars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now because of it.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall with road wins over Duke and Virginia, as well as home wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech yet they are still on the bubble.

The Panthers have been rolling at home during this stretch going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games beating Florida State by 15, VA Tech by 15, Louisville by 27, Notre Dame by 10 and Wake Forest by 5.  Now they are at home again on Senior Day in what will be a great atmosphere.

NC State has gone the other direction, playing their way off the bubble and into the NIT at best.  The Wolfpack have gone 4-9 SU in their last 13 games overall.  They have lost three consecutive games, including a 15-point home loss to Duke last time out.  They know their only chance of making the Big Dance is winning the ACC Tournament now, so they won't be motivated again until it gets here.  I expect a very flat effort from the Wolfpack tonight.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* Kansas/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +8.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are a real contender with a healthy Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.3 APG).  He does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has returned from injury in their last two games and shown very little signs of injury, scoring 20 points against Baylor and 19 against Kansas State.

Houston has already clinched the Big 12 title and thus I think this may be a letdown spot for them.  Kansas is used to winning the Big 12, and they can at least get some solace in sweeping the season series after crushing Houston 78-65 at home in their first meeting this season.  Nobody has played Houston better than Kansas did this season.

The Cougars are not only vulnerable after clinching the Big 12, but they are also a very banged up team right now and lacking depth.  They have lost key role players in Joseph Tugler, Ramon Walker Jr. and Terrance Arceneaux to season-ending injuries.  That puts a lot of pressure on their starters to play big minutes and fatigue will be a factor for them moving forward.  This is a big number for the Cougars to be laying against a team that caliber of the Jayhawks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -3

The Miami Hurricanes have flat out quit.  They made the Final 4 last season and brought back all but two or three key players from that team and were expected to make another run this season.  But they sit at just 15-15 this season and their only hope of getting back to the big dance is winning the ACC Tournament.  They have just been going through the motions waiting for it to get here.

Indeed, Miami is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with all eight losses by 4 points or more.  The Hurricanes are coming off a 67-57 home loss to Boston College which was their 5th loss by double-digits during this 8-game skid.  I don't see them showing up at all for the regular season finale against Florida State, either.

The Seminoles have been solid at home this season and have won their last two home games 90-83 over NC State and 84-76 over Boston College.  They have not quit and would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals in the Hurricanes after beating them 84-75 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5

The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title.  They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result.

Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake.  The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd.  They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too.

Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season.  You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -4

I love the spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon.  They have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by losing three consecutive games against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Kentucky and lost on the road to both Auburn and Texas A&M.

Now the Bulldogs return home on Senior Day and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 68-62 road loss at South Carolina in their first meeting this season.  I think they catch the Gamecocks at the perfect time.

South Carolina just lost to Tennessee 66-59 at home on Wednesday in a game that was for 1st place in the SEC.  The Volunteers won and won the outright SEC title as a result.  I think the Gamecocks are in a massive letdown and hangover spot from that defeat, and we will see one of their worst efforts of the season because of it.

Mississippi State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with South Carolina.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU at home in SEC play with wins over both Tennessee and Auburn, which are the top two teams in the conference.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Alabama by a combined 10 points.  

Mississippi State is 80-37 ATS in its last 117 games after losing three of its last four games.  The Bulldogs are 148-113 ATS in their last 261 games revenging a loss.  Mississippi State is 41-21 ATS in its last 62 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Bulldogs.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Memphis/FAU CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7

Memphis (22-8) has played its way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing some clutch basketball here down the stretch.  The Tigers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Charlotte by 24 at home as 6-point favorites, upsetting FAU 78-74 as 1.5-point home dogs, crushing ECU by 24 as 4.5-point road favorites and crushing UAB by 19 as 7-point home favorites.

Now the Tigers get a chance to beat FAU for a 2nd time this season which would almost surely get them in the Big Dance.  I know we will get their best effort, and fading Florida Atlantic has been a very profitable endeavor for myself and premium clients in AAC play this season.

FAU has been grossly overvalued in conference play after making the Final 4 last year and beating Arizona in the non-conference.  The Owls are just 5-12 ATS in conference play this season and have been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, they have seven wins by 10 points or less in conference play despite this conference being way down.

Memphis is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS in this role under current head coach Penny Hardaway.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -13.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  The Demon Deacons are squarely on the bubble now after losing consecutive road games at Notre Dame and at Virginia Tech following up their upset home win over Duke.  They already beat Georgia Tech 80-51 on the road, and they cannot afford to take the Yellow Jackets lightly now.

Wake Forest is back home now where they are 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game.  Few of these games have even been close, and I like their chances of winning this game by 14 points or more to get us the cover given what's at stake.

Wake Forest is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season and winning by 20.0 points per game in this spot.  Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better and losing by 26.1 points per game in this spot.  Bet Wake Forest Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (19-10, 10-8 ACC) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now.  This despite going 9-3 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with upset road wins over Duke, NC State and Virginia.  They are coming off a 25-point win at Boston College as well.

We'll get a fully focused effort from the Panthers tonight knowing they are on the bubble.  They should make easy work ofa. bad Florida State team that is just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-76 road loss to a very bad Georgia Tech team.  They have lost four of their last five ACC road games all by 8 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.