20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 6 No-Doubt Rout on Boston +2

The Boston Celtics continue to get no love despite outplaying Miami for four straight games now. After blowing a big lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime, the Celtics have grabbed a stranglehold on this series. They are making all the big plays down the stretch, and that won't change tonight.

Doc Rivers is coaching circles around Eric Spoelstra in this series. He has his team playing together and making all the right adjustments, while Spoelstra has his team playing as individuals and looking lost offensively. Miami's role players have not showed up, and their chances of doing so in a hostile atmosphere tonight in Boston are slim to none.

It's amazing that the Celtics are an underdog considering the fact that they've owned Miami this season. After going 3-1 in the regular season, the Celtics are now 6-3 in all meetings with the Heat this season, including a sensational 8-1 ATS. Miami is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Boston.

Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 6-20 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Bet Boston in Game 6 Thursday.

15* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Marlins -133

After losing the first two games of this series to the Atlanta Braves, the Miami Marlins are certainly hungry for a victory in Game 3 tonight to salvage this series. I believe they get that victory behind underrated left-hander Mark Buehrle.

Buehrle has proven to be an excellent addition to their rotation in the offseason. The left-hander is 5-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in five home starts.

Mike Minor has been one of the worst starters in the big leagues this year. Minor is 2-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 10 starts, 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in six road starts, and 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP In his last three starts.

Minor has never beaten Miami, going 0-1 with a 7.65 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in four career starts. He gave up 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Marlins on May 16th. Buehrle has never lost to Atlanta, going 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in three career starts. Take the Marlins Thursday.

15* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -146

I'm willing to lay this juice on the Rangers Wednesday just as I did last night with Texas -152 in a 6-3 victory. This is a very good price to be able to back what I believe is the best team in baseball up against one of the worst teams in the league.

Because the Rangers have struggled of late, losing five of their last seven, they are now starting to show good value again. They should be a much bigger favorite against an Oakland team that has lost 11 of its last 13. The A's have scored a combined 15 runs in those 11 losses, getting shut out five times.

Colby Lewis is the ace of this staff at 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through 11 starts. Lewis is 7-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 16 career starts against Oakland. Bartolo Colon is winless at home for the A's, going 0-4 with a 10.07 ERA and 1.933 WHIP through four starts. Colon has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers over 9 innings in his last two starts against Texas.

The Rangers are 40-17 in their last 57 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The A's are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 0-4 in Colon's last 4 home starts. The A's are 9-23 in their last 32 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 14-4 in their last 18 meetings, and 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 starts vs. Oakland. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5

I have backed the Oklahoma City Thunder against the spread with success in each of their last three games. However, I'm switching gears tonight and going with the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of this series for a few simple reasons.

Oklahoma City is still a young team and has few key players that have ever been to the NBA Finals. Close-out games are the toughest, especially when trying to advance to a stage as big as the NBA Finals. I don't believe the Thunder will be up to the task tonight.

The Spurs' lives are at stake tonight, and they'll be giving 110% for 48 minutes to try to stay alive. There's no question the Thunder will be trying hard as well, but they will likely be trying too hard which will lead to turnovers and quick shots. I just don't think they're ready to win a big game like this with what's at stake.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is a veteran bunch with several players that have been to the NBA Finals before. They have been through these elimination games, and they won't be phased by it. I look for Greg Popovich to rally his troops, and for his players to go out and execute better than Oklahoma City does.

The Spurs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 6.5 points/game. San Antonio is also 20-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 8.8 points/game. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -133

Motivated from losses in six of their last seven games, including Game 1 of this series with Houston, the St. Louis Cardinals are hungry for a win tonight. I believe they get that victory behind Adam Wainwright, who has absolutely owned the Astros throughout his career.

Wainwright had given up just 1 earned run over 15 innings in two starts before allowing 7 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings against the New York Mets last time out. He's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there's no question he'll be hungry to bounce back from one of his poorest outings of the season.

Bud Norris was even worse in his last start, allowing 9 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings to the Colorado Rockies. He has now allowed 12 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts. This guy simply isn't even in the same class as Wainwright.

The Cardinals right-hander is 10-1 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 12 career starts against Houston. The Cardinals are 11-1 in those games, winning 92% of the time. Wainwright has only given up 1 earned run over 31 innings in his last four starts against Houston. Take the Cardinals Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -152

The Texas Rangers have lost five of their last six games overall in their worst stretch of baseball this season. That being said, there's no question they are highly motivated to get back on track tonight with a win over the Oakland A's, especially after a 1-12 loss last night.

As bad as Texas has been struggling of late, Oakland has been worse aside from a couple breakout performances. The A's are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, scoring a combined 12 runs in their 10 losses, and getting shut out five times. They don't have the ability to bounce back like Texas does because of their lack of offensive production.

I really like Texas' chances with left-hander Derek Holland on the mound tonight. Holland is coming off his worst start of the season, so he'll obviously be motivated to dominate the A's. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in four road starts this season. He has owned Oakland, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in six career starts against the A's.

Texas is 18-3 as a road favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. The Rangers are 39-13 in their last 52 games following a loss. Texas is 8-1 in Holland's last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The A's are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rangers Tuesday.

15* Giants/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -103

The San Francisco Giants are rolling right now. They have won seven of their last eight to move into second place in the NL West division, just three games behind Los Angeles. They now face the last-place San Diego Padres (18-37) in Game 1 of a new series tonight.

I really like this price we're getting with the Giants. I know Tim Lincecum has struggled in the early going, but there's no question he'll turn it around. He showed signs of that in his last start by allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings in a 1-4 loss to Arizona.

Lincecum has owned San Diego, going 10-4 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Padres. He has given up just 2 earned runs over 29 innings in winning each of his last four starts against them. Anthony Bass has struggled of late for San Diego, giving up 11 earned runs and 21 base runners over 10 innings in his last two outings.

The Padres are 1-13 after scoring 1 run or less this season. They are losing in this spot 3.1 to 6.1 on average. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter, and 0-4 in Bass' last 4 starts vs. NL West opponents. These five trends make for a 33-1 (97%) system backing San Francisco. Roll with the Giants Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +8

The Boston Celtics have all of the momentum heading into Game 5. They have outplayed the Miami Heat in three straight games now, though they gave away Game 2. Boston nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game 4, but managed to win 93-91 in overtime which gives them the belief they can win this series.

Last year, the Celtics lost Game 4 to the Heat in heartbreaking fashion, which put them down 3-1 in the series, thus it what basically over. Now even at 2-2, the Celtics understand they have a great shot at advancing to the NBA Finals, and I fully expect them to take advantage.

The Celtics have had an excellent game plan these last three contests, with the key being double-teaming both James and Wade with great help defense. While Chris Bosh is expected to return tonight, it could actually hurt the Heat as they've been getting used to playing without him. Plus, he'll certainly be rusty his first game back.

The Celtics are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Miami is 6-19 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Miami as they clearly have their number. Bet Boston in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Rangers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -122

The Texas Rangers put an end to their four-game losing streak yesterday, beating the Los Angeles Angels 7-3. Now back on track, I fully expect the Rangers to make easy work of the struggling Oakland A's tonight in Game 1 of this AL West rivalry.

Oakland fell 2-0 in Kansas City on Sunday. The A's have scored 21 runs during a 1-10 stretch - and that includes a nine-run outburst in the lone victory in that run Saturday. Oakland has been shut out in three of its last four games and is hitting .209 for the majors' worst mark.

Texas has taken 13 of the last 16 meetings with Oakland, including five of six on the road. The Rangers lead the majors with 302 runs while the A's are last in the AL with 173. Jarrod Parker is off to a solid start for Oakland, but he hasn't faced a line-up nearly as potent as the Rangers.

The Rangers are 40-16 in their last 56 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is 38-13 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series. The A's are 0-8 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 8-22 in their last 30 games as a home underdog. Roll with the Rangers Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs TNT Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have all of the momentum heading into Game 5 tonight. They made all the right adjustments in Games 3 and 4, and I expect them to steal one in San Antonio Monday. Getting the five points is just an added bonus.

Oklahoma City has gone to a smaller line-up more frequently in the last two games, which allows them to match up with the Spurs much better. They can switch pick and rolls on defense, which takes away many of the options that San Antonio likes to use.

The biggest adjustment has been putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker defensively. Parker scored 16 and 12 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. The Thunder won Game 4 109-103 despite off nights from Russell Wesbrook (2-10, 7 points) and James Harden (4-13, 11 points), which is a great sign for them going forward.

The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak came to an end, and now they're rattled and lacking the confidence they had during their streak. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 5 Monday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Boston +2

Boston realistically should be up 2-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2. But they responded well in Game 3, topping the Heat 101-91 at home. I fully expect the Celtics to roll at home in Game 4 as well.

The home team has been absolutely dominant in this series thus far. The home squad is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Miami has really struggled against the number in Boston, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 visits to the TD Garden.

The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Boston is 26-9 ATS in their last 35 Sunday games. The Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog. The Heat are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -119

I'm siding with the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday to beat the lowly San Diego Padres to take this series. San Diego has lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to 18-36 on the season.

Arizona sends Trevor Cahill to the mound today. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in six road starts this season, pitching very well away from hitter-friendly Arizona. He has faced the Padres once this year, allowing just one earned run in 6 innings of a 4-2 Diamondbacks victory.

The Diamondbacks are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. San Diego is 13-42 in their last 55 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Roll with the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +100

After losing three straight, it's clear that the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers are hungry for a victory tonight. I believe they'll get it behind Japanese sensation Yu Darvish as he continues his impressive 2012 campaign tonight.

Darvish is 7-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts in his rookie season. He has struck out 66 batters in 61 innings. C.J. Wilson is having a solid year for Los Angeles as well, but he has struggled against his former team. Wilson is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts against the Rangers this season.

The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 39-13 in their last 52 games following a loss. The Rangers are 8-2 in Darvish's 10 starts this season. Texas is 40-16 in their last 56 vs. AL West opponents. Roll with the Rangers Saturday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 4 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5

I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder once again in Game 4 Saturday. They have figured out the Spurs, and they'll even this series up with a blowout victory tonight. This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as the Thunder should be a much bigger favorite.

Oklahoma City is 32-7 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs. You could argue that they have the best home-court advantage in the history of the NBA. Head coach Mark Brooks has decided to put Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker, and it worked wonders in Game 3 as Parker was held to just 16 points.

The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

After a 115-111 overtime thriller in Game 2, I look for Game 3 to be a much more low-scoring affair. Boston knows they cannot afford to get in a track meet with Miami, and they'll control the tempo playing at home this time around.

I look for this one to be played at a pace similar to Game 1, which saw 172 combined points in a 93-79 Heat victory. Miami did figure out how to slow down Rajon Rondo in the second half of Game 2, and the Celtics figured out how to slow down Wade and James in the 4th quarter of Game 2 as neither player had a field goal in that period.

Miami is 10-2 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is 4-0 to the UNDER in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 9-2 in Celtics last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog Detroit Tigers +160

The Detroit Tigers should never be this big of an underdog at home. I'll side with the Tigers to beat the New York Yankees tonight. The only reason the Yankees are so heavily favored is because the betting public had not heard of Casey Crosby.

With the Tigers placing Doug Fister on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday, the club will call up Crosby from Triple-A Toledo to make his debut. Crosby went 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA in nine 2012 starts for the Mud Hens. The 23-year-old left-hander nearly beat out Drew Smyly for a rotation spot in spring training.

The Yankees won't have much of a scouting report on Crosby, which puts him at a huge advantage. The Tigers have certainly seen C.C. Sabathia plenty of times. Sabathia has posted a 4.61 ERA in six road starts this season, and the left-hander sports a 4.51 ERA in 35 career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 29-10 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 28-13 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 0-4 in Sabathia's last 4 road starts vs. Tigers. Roll with the Tigers Friday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +135

The Minnesota Twins are trying to dig themselves out of the big hole they have gotten themselves into through the first month of the season. Having a healthy Justin Morneau back has certainly helped matter of late. Minnesota is coming off a 3-0 sweep of the Oakland A's last series.

While Minnesota is back on track, Cleveland (27-23) is reeling. The Indians have lost five of their last six overall for a big reality check. I have no doubt this is one of the worst teams in the AL Central, and that will show as the season progresses. Cleveland has simply overachieved to this point.

Twins starter Carl Pavano has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in five starts away from home. Derek Lowe gave up 8 earned runs over 2 1/3 innings in his last start for Cleveland. Pavano is 3-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 11 career starts against Cleveland, while Lowe is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in eight career starts against Minnesota.

The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day. Minnesota is 4-1 in Pavano's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 17-9 against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. Pavano is 10-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Friday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest release for the entire 2012 NBA playoffs tonight. I know the San Antonio Spurs have won 20 straight, but they haven't faced an atmosphere nearly as tough as the one they'll face in Game 3 tonight.

This is a "must win" situation for the Thunder, and I fully expect them to roll at home tonight. They found out what works in the second half of Game 2, which is a smaller line-up to counter the line-up the Spurs have on the floor. The Thunder cut a 22-point deficit down to 6 when going to small ball.

The Thunder are 31-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents 105.3 to 95.5 on average. They are a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has the best home-court advantage of any team left in the playoffs. They are favored for good reason tonight as oddsmakers know this is their game to win.

The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Tigers/Red Sox OVER 9

I fully expect a slug fest tonight between the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox in Game 4 of this American League series. Each of the first three games in this series has seen 9 or more combined runs, and I look for Game 4 to follow suit.

Max Scherzer is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.537 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Josh Beckett hasn't been all that spectacular either, going 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA in nine starts for the Red Sox.

Scherzer has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 with a whopping 11.81 ERA and 2.313 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 14 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them. Beckett allowed 7 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Detroit on April 7th of this year.

Detroit is a perfect 16-0 to the OVER after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-0 to the OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These three trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -108

I'm going to continue riding the Los Angeles Angels as they look to add to their 8-game winning streak, while also sweeping the New York Yankees in the process. I knew it was only a matter of time before this talented team got on a run, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon.

The Angels have finally starting hitting the ball, scoring a combined 29 runs in their last five contests. Their pitching has been tremendous as they've allowed 4 runs or less in seven of their last eight, including 2 or less in five of those games. This team is simply playing with a lot of confidence right now, which goes a long ways.

After a slow start, Ervin Santana has turned it on, going 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts. Ivan Nova has gone in the opposite direction for New York, going 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in his last three outings. Nova has posted a 5.47 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in nine starts this season.

The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 games overall. Los Angeles is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East. Los Angeles is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. These five trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backings Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +8

I'm siding with the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 2. Boston had their chances in Game 1, but they tried to give the game away with technical foul after technical foul in a game where the calls simply didn't go their way.

Instead of talking, I look for the Celtics to let their play speak for itself tonight. Boston has vowed to be more physical, which will be needed after giving up too many layups in Game 1. Nothing is going to come easy for Lebron James and Dwyane Wade tonight.

Head coach Doc Rivers is one of the best in the business at making adjustments. He's also excellent at getting the most out of his players. He'll be looking to do just that after their poor performance in Game 1, and I look for his veteran players to respond.

Boston is 22-7 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Miami, only once losing by more than 8 points. The Celtics went 3-1 S.U. against the Heat during the regular season. Take the Celtics in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110)

After an embarrassing 10-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the Texas Rangers to get revenge in blowout fashion Wednesday. Seattle had lost five straight before that win while scoring a combined 11 runs in those five losses, so their offensive outburst was simply an aberration.

Texas clearly has a huge edge at the plate as they hit .287 while scoring 5.7 runs/game this season, while Seattle hits just .229 and scores 3.8 runs/game. The Rangers also have the edge on the mound tonight with Derek Holland (4-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.167 WHIP) over Blake Beavan (2-4, 4.38 ERA, 1.277 WHIP).

Holland has been dominant against the Mariners throughout his career. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle. Beavan has really struggled on the road this year, going 1-3 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in five starts away from home.

The Rangers are 13-1 in Holland's last 14 home starts following a loss. Texas is winning in this spot 9.2 to 4.4 on average, outscoring opponents by 4.8 runs/game. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* NL West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco Giants -118

The San Francisco Giants represent my strongest release in the NL West division for the entire 2012 season tonight. I'm backing them as a small home favorite over the Arizona Diamondbacks due to the huge edge they have on the mound in this one.

Ryan Vogelsong continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. He had a breakout 2011 campaign, and he's picked up right where he left off last year. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has posted a 1.32 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in four home starts.

Vogelsong is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona. He'll be opposed by Joe Saunders, who is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in his last three starts. Saunders has never beaten San Francisco, going 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.774 WHIP in five career starts against the Giants.

The Giants are 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. San Francisco is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 starts vs. National League West. The Giants are 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. San Francisco is 6-0 in Vogelsong's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. These four trends make for a 20-0 system backing Vogelsong and the Giants. Bet San Francisco Tuesday.

15* Yankees/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -130

The Los Angeles Angels have been a money-making machine for me over the past week. I knew it was only a matter of time before this talented bunch got on track, and they've done just that. Los Angeles (25-25) has reached the .500 mark for the first time since early April.

The Angels look to get on the plus side of the break even point tonight in Game 2 against the New York Yankees. They won their seventh straight game last night despite ace Jered Weaver being pulled in the first inning with a back injury. They did so by posting season-highs in runs (9) and hits (15).

Dan Haren has been an unlucky starter this season with a 2-5 record despite a 3.76 ERA and 1.206 WHIP. He made sure not to get unlucky with poor run support in his last start, pitching a complete game shutout in a 3-0 win over the Mariners.

Haren clearly loves the challenge of facing the Yankees, going 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.173 WHIP in 10 career starts against New York. He pitched a complete game shutout in a 6-0 victory in his last start against the Yankees. Andy Pettite sports a 4.73 ERA and 1.497 WHIP in 28 career starts against Los Angeles.

The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road underdog. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 overall. Los Angeles is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. New York is 11-25 in the last 36 meetings in Los Angeles. The Yankees are 1-5 in Pettitte's last 6 road starts vs. Angels. Take the Angels Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave away Game 1 by allowing 39 points to the San Antonio Spurs in the 4th quarter, blowing an 11-point lead in the second half. I believe they'll come back highly motivated from that collapse and steal Game 2 tonight.

I look for the Thunder to make the proper adjustments in between games to make sure to cut off the penetration by Parker and Ginobli much better than they did in Game 1. Oklahoma City did a decent job of it through the first three quarters, but simply forgot what they were doing in the 4th, yet still only lost by 3 points.

The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a S.U. loss, so they are certainly one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. OKC is as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Thunder in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Yankees/Angels Memorial Day BAILOUT on Los Angeles -128

I've been on the Angels quite a bit lately, and I'll continue riding them Monday. Los Angeles is finally starting to play up to its potential here over the past week. They have won six straight while outscoring the opposition 26-10 in the process.

With a chance to reach the .500 mark for the first time since early April, the Angels (24-25) will be motivated for a win in Game 1 against the Yankees tonight. They couldn't have a better starter on the mound with a chance to reach the break-even point.

Jered Weaver is 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in 10 starts this season, once again proving he's a Cy Young candidate. Weaver has been untouchable at home, going 4-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.490 WHIP in four starts. He'll be up against the struggling Phil Hughes, who is 4-5 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in nine starts for New York.

Weaver is 5-2 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Yankees. He has allowed 3 earned runs in 15 innings while with a 1-0 record in his last three starts against New York. Hughes is 1-2 with an 8.70 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles. He has yielded 12 earned runs over 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Angels.

The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. Los Angeles is 45-15 in Weaver's last 60 home starts. The Angels are 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 1-5 in Hughes' last 6 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Angels Monday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +8.5

The Boston Celtics are getting no respect from oddsmakers in Game 1 tonight. I'll take full advantage and back the Celtics at this inflated number Monday. Boston is a tough match-up for Miami, especially considering the Heat are still without Chris Bosh.

Doc Rivers is a defensive genius of a head coach. He knows how to stop superstars, and he'll have the perfect game plan to defend Lebron James and Dwyane Wade by double-teaming them often, making other players try and beat them. Boston has proven in the past that they know how to stop these two.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after a combined score of 160 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boston is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Miami. The Celtics won three of four meetings this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points. Bet Boston in Game 1 Monday.

15* AL Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +127

The Detroit Tigers are starting to play up to their potential. They just swept the Minnesota Twins in three games over the weekend, outscoring them 20-12 in the process. I look for their bats to stay red hot tonight in Game 1 of this series against the Boston Red Sox.

Detroit (23-24) will be motivated to get to the .500 mark on the season with a win tonight. I like their chances with hard-luck starter Doug Fister on the mound. Fister is 0-2 despite posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through five starts this season. The Tigers certainly want to reward him with his first win after the way he's pitched thus far.

Felix Doubront is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in nine starts this season for Boston. Doubront is 1-1 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in four home starts as well. Fister has posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Red Sox.

This play falls into a system that is 46-14 (76.7%) since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (DETROIT) - off 3 straight wins vs. division rivals, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49%). The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Detroit is 4-0 in Fister's last 4 starts as an underdog. Take the Tigers Monday.

20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 204

I am siding with the OVER in Game 1 Sunday. These are two of the best offensive teams in the league, and they should have no problem combining to score 204-plus points in Game 1. Playing Game 1 OVERS has certainly been a profitable investment over the years in the playoffs.

The Thunder score 102.7 points/game on the year, while the Spurs put up 103.5 points/game. San Antonio scores a whopping 106.0 points/game at home this season. Both teams have mismatches all over the board offensively that they can exploit, and that will be evident after Game 1.

These teams have combined for 203 or more points in four straight meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The OVER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -145

I've been riding the Los Angeles Angels during their 5-game winning streak. I'm going to back them to win a sixth straight Sunday against the overmatched Seattle Mariners. The Angels have outscored the opposition 22-8 during their winning streak behind dominant pitching.

I see that domination on the mound continuing Sunday with C.J. Wilson, who was an excellent addition to the Angels' rotation this offseason. Wilson is 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.153 WHIP in 10 starts this season, 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA at home, and 1-1 with a 1.56 ERA over his last three outings.

Hector Noesi is just 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA in nine starts this season for Seattle. Wilson is 27-6 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 14-37 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle is 24-55 in their last 79 games vs. a left-handed starter overall. Take the Angels Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +103

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as an underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday. Philly wants revenge from getting eliminated in the postseason by the Cardinals last year. They have done their part in winning the first three games of this series, but sweet-sweet revenge would come in the form of a 4-0 sweep.

I expect Roy Halladay to take this one personal, and as a result this will be one of his best starts of the season. Halladay is off to a "slow" start this season by going 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 10 starts. His numbers will be much better as the season goes along.

Adam Wainwright is just 3-5 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-3 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five home starts. Halladay is 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in six career starts against St. Louis.

Philly is a perfect 10-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are winning in this spot by a whopping 4.0 runs/game. Roll with the Phillies Sunday to cap off the 4-0 sweep.

15* Astros/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -118

The lowly Houston Astros (22-23) are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The Los Angeles Dodgers (30-15) continue to get no love from oddsmakers despite having the best record in baseball. I'll side with them as a small home favorite Saturday.

Chad Billinglsey has been at his best at home this season, going 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five home starts. Bud Norris has struggled on teh road, going 2-1 with a 5.32 ERA in four starts away from home for the Astros.

The Dodgers are 15-3 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Los Angeles is 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Dodgers are 23-7 in Billingsley's last 30 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Dodgers Saturday.

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -5.5

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in these last two games with a lot on the line with the series tied at 2-2. Boston won Game 5 in convincing fashion 101-85, while Philly responded with a 82-75 triumph in Game 6.

I believe the Celtics will feed off their home crowd tonight, and their role players will be the difference in this one. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce played well in Game 6, but the rest of the Celtics players shot a combined 12-of-47 (25.5 percent) from the field. These role players will be much more confident at home in Game 7.

Philly is a very young team that is not ready to shine on a stage like tonight's. Boston is a veteran franchise that has been in these spots before, so the pressure of a Game 7 won't phase them. Their veteran leaders in Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo will lead the team to victory as their role players follow suit.

Boston is 10-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are also 9-1 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Angels +130

The Los Angeles Angels are finally starting to play up to their potential. They came back from a 1-run deficit in the bottom of the 9th last night to win 6-4 over Seattle. That was their 4th consecutive win while outscoring the opposition 17-5, and this team is really starting to play with some confidence.

Jerome Williams is a better starter than he gets credit for. Williams has gone 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.733 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle.

The Angels are 7-0 in Williams' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 1-5 in Hernandez's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Seattle is 25-52 in their last 77 games following a loss. Bet the Angels Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Nationals -121

The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound today with Stephen Strasburg over over Mike Minor. That's the biggest reason I'm taking the Nationals, but I also like the fact that the Braves are struggling right now, losers of five straight.

Strasburg has been nothing short of sensational, going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.019 WHIP over nine starts with 64 strikeouts in 53 innings. The phenom has pitched his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in four starts away from home.

Minor is just 2-4 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in nine starts this season. He had a lot of hype coming into the league, but simply hasn't lived up to expectations. Minor has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Nationals are 8-1 in Strasburg's last 9 starts as a road favorite. Washington is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. These four trends make for a 22-1 system backing Washington. Take the Nationals Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -116

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight against the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles are 29-17 on the season, while the Royals are just 17-27. Baltimore continues getting disrespected by oddsmakers.

Little-known starter Wei-Yin Chen has been going under the radar this season, but he's much better than he gets credit for, especially at home. Chen is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in four home starts this season.

The Royals are 21-48 in their last 69 games vs. a left-handed starter. Worse yet, Kansas City 14-47 in their last 61 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Orioles are 6-0 in Chen's last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Baltimore is 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Roll with the Orioles Saturday.

15* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -123

The Los Angeles Angels are finally starting to play up to their potential, and I'm going to continue to ride them while they're feeling good about themselves. The Angels have won three straight, outscoring the opposition 11-1 in the process. I expect win No. 4 in a row to come tonight.

Ervin Santana will have extra motivation to try and shut down Seattle after watching C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren each throw gems en route to this 3-game winning streak. He has pitched well of late, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.143 WHIP over his last three starts.

Blake Beavan is just 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in eight starts this season. He's no match for Santana, who has thrived in recent visits to Safeco Field, where he's given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine outings. He hasn't allowed more than three in any of his last nine outings against Seattle.

The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mariners are 33-67 in their last 100 games as an underdog. Seattle is 25-51 in their last 76 games following a loss. Los Angeles is 37-16 in their last 53 meetings with Seattle. Take the Angels Friday.

15* NL Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Brewers/Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly tonight with the total set in the Milwaukee versus Arizona battle. Neither starting pitcher is getting the respect they deserve in this one. I look for Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy to take part in a pitcher's duel.

Both Gallardo and Kennedy are off to sub-par starts, but the fact of the matter is that these two are Aces on their respective ball clubs, and they've pitched very well in the past. Kennedy was a 21-game winner just a year ago. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, so he has certainly turned it around.

Gallardo owns the Diamondbacks, going 6-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in seven career starts against Arizona. The UNDER is 5-2 in those seven contests. Kennedy is 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. The UNDER is 4-1 in those five games.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 9 games following an off day. The UNDER is 10-1 in Kennedy's last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 9-3 in Kennedy's last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -116

The Philadelphia Phillies remember getting knocked out by the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs last season. They certainly want revenge all year long, and they got a taste of it last night with a 10-9 victory in Game 1 of this series.

Don't expect the Cardinals to put up anywhere near 9 runs tonight against Cliff Lee. The veteran left-hander continues to dominate this season. He has posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.864 WHIP through six starts this season, including a 0.56 ERA and 0.687 WHIP in two road starts. Lee is 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA in five career starts against St. Louis.

Kyle Lohse is off to a solid start as usual, but this guy always seems to struggle as the season goes on. That has been the case in his last two starts as Lohse has given up 8 earned runs and 21 base runners over 12 1/3 innings against the Cubs and Dodgers.

The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. Philly is 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Phillies are 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. St. Louis is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends make for a perfect 23-0 system backing Philly. Bet the Phillies Friday.

20* Angels/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -115

The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value as a small road favorite over the Seattle Mariners tonight. After taking two out of three from the Texas Rangers in their last series, the Mariners are in for a huge letdown spot in Game 1 of this series.

I know Dan Haren has posted worse numbers than Jason Vargas this season, but I have no doubt that Haren is the better starter in this match-up. The reason the Angels are only a small favorite tonight is because Haren is off to a slow start.

Haren has owned the Mariners, going 10-5 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 19 career starts against Seattle. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts against the Mariners, so he always gives his team a chance to win. All six of those were quality starts as he went at least 6 innings in each.

The Mariners are 12-32 in their last 44 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Seattle is 22-50 in their last 72 Thursday games. The Mariners are 8-20 in Vargas' last 28 starts with 4 days of rest. The Angels are 36-16 in the last 52 meetings. The Mariners are 1-4 in Vargas' last 5 starts vs. Angels. Bet the Angels Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 182

With what's at stake in Game 6 tonight, I look for a defensive battle between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. After giving up 115 points to the Heat in a Game 5 loss, the Pacers were called "soft" by Larry Bird.

I look for the Pacers to respond in a big way by buckling down defensively, while also trying to feed the ball inside for buckets around the rim. Look for Indiana to slow down the pace playing at home as they know they cannot run with the Heat.

Miami is going to be without Udonis Haslem, who after Chris Bosh went out with an injury, became their biggest big man threat to score the basketball. Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf aren't going to be able to give the Heat anything offensively, leaving the burden on James and Wade.

The Heat are 18-5 to the UNDER after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 24-6 in Heat last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Heat last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +110

The Atlanta Braves are showing solid value as an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. There's no question which team will be more motivated heading into this one as the Braves are looking to avoid a 4-game sweep after losing the first three games of this series.

Look for the Reds to relax, while the Braves push hard to try and avoid the embarrassment of getting swept. Atlanta sends underrated starter Randall Delgado to the mound tonight as he looks to continue his recent success. Delgado has posted a 2.75 ERA over his last three starts.

Delgado faced Cincinnati at home on May 14th, not allowing a single earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. Homer Bailey gets the ball for Cincinnati, and he's just 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in eight starts this season. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cincinnati is 3-10 in their last 13 during game 4 of a series. Atlanta is 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 games following a loss. Roll with Atlanta Thursday.

20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston +1.5

In a potential elimination game tonight, these young Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to be able to handle the pressure. I fully expect these veteran Boston Celtics to rise to the occasion and put an end to this series tonight. They will be in a better state of mind heading into this one.

"It's not really doom and gloom," Andre Iguodala said. "You get in a situation like this, you get thoughts creeping in your mind it could be over in a day or two. Our guys are talking about tomorrow and what we've got to do to try and win that game."

The comments from many of the 76ers young players, and coach Doug Collins, lead me to believe that they are putting way too much into this game. Obviously, it's win or go home, but Sixers guard Jrue Holiday says he looks at Game 6 as, "kind of like the end of the world." They are basically over-hyping themselves heading into this one, which doesn't usually work.

The Celtics are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The 76ers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday Mound Mismatch on Atlanta Braves -109

After losing the first two games of this series, it's safe to say that the Atlanta Braves are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. Atlanta has the better starter on the mound in Tommy Hanson over Bronson Arroyo, making this selection a no-brainer.

Hanson is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA through nine starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA in six starts away from home. He has 46 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings on the season. He is red hot of late, going 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 18 innings.

Arroyo has been a below-average starter in this league for years. He is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA through eight starts thus far in 2012, but he's coming off a 2011 campaign in which he went 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA. Arroyo is 0-1 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.881 WHIP in four home starts this season, and he has posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 14 career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 7-0 in road games with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. The Reds are 0-6 in Arroyos last 6 starts as a home underdog. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing Atlanta. Take the Braves Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -108

After losing the first game of this series and four of their last six overall to drop to 20-22 on the season, it's safe to say the underachieving Detroit Tigers are motivated for a win here tonight. I am backing them at a great price knowing that this team is better than Cleveland despite their records.

The biggest reason I'm backing the Tigers tonight is Doug Fister, who remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Fister has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in four starts this season, yet he doesn't have a win due to poor run support. His teammates will be hungry to get him his first "W" of the season tonight.

The Indians will give the ball to Zach McAllister (1-1, 4.34), who is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA in two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus to replaced the injured Josh Tomlin (wrist) in the rotation. McAllister labored through 100 pitches in 5 2/3 innings of his latest outing Thursday, yielding four runs against lowly Seattle.

Fister is 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in eight career starts against Cleveland. He is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts against Cleveland while striking out 29 batters in 23 innings.

The Tigers are 10-3 in Fister's last 13 starts. Detroit is 38-15 in their last 53 games following a loss. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Detroit is 7-1 in Fister's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Indians. Roll with Detroit Wednesday.

15* Pacers/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +6.5

Despite losing Game 4 at home to the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers are still in better position in this series. That's because they are fully healthy, while the Heat remain without Chris Bosh.

Lebron James and Dwyane Wade came up huge in Game 4, combining for 70 of the team's 101 points in a 101-93 victory. You can bet the Pacers are going to have a game plan to make sure that James and Wade don't beat them again, forcing other unproven players to take and make big shots.

Indiana has outscored Miami by 5 points in this series. The Pacers should not be the underdog in Game 5 given the Heat's health situation. The betting public is going to flock to the Heat after their Game 4 performance, but I'm going the other way with this one and backing the better team.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. This is a combined 20-1 (95%) system backing Indiana tonight. Take the Pacers Tuesday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Royals/Yankees OVER 9

The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees are likely to take part in a slug fest tonight. Two below-average starting pitchers get the ball against two potent line-ups in this American League battle.

Luke Hochevar is 3-4 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight starts this season for Kansas City. Phil Hughes is 3-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in eight starts this season for New York.

Hochevar is 0-2 with a 10.68 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees. Hughes is 3-1 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in five career starts against the Royals. The OVER is 4-1 in those five contests.

Hochevar is 12-2 to the OVER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. Hughes is 15-5 to the OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 23-7-2 in Hochevar's last 32 starts as a road underdog. The OVER is 10-2 in Yankees last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The OVER is 18-6-2 in Hughes' last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +107

The Detroit Tigers should not be an underdog to the Cleveland Indians tonight. Cleveland is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 23-18 start, while the Tigers are undervalued right now due to their sub-par 20-21 record.

There's no question that the Tigers are the more talented team, and it's only a matter of time before they overtake the Indians. Plus they have the better starter going tonight in Rick Porcello, who has posted a 3.55 ERA on the road this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez has lost about 4-5 MPH on his fastball since his career year in 2010. The fact of the matter is that the Indians made a bad trade when they dealt for him last year. Jimenez is 4-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in eight starts this season with just 28 strikeouts in 46 innings. He has more walks (32) than K's.

Porcello is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 12 career starts against Cleveland, and his teams are 9-3 in those contests. Jimenez is 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in seven career starts against Detroit. He went 0-3 with a 9.98 ERA in his final three 2011 starts against the Tigers.

Detroit is 54-24 in their last 78 vs. Americal League Central opponents. The Tigers are 20-6 in Porcello's last 26 starts vs. division foes. Detroit is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Indians, including 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Roll with the Tigers Tuesday.

15* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -103

With such a huge advantage on the mound tonight, the San Francisco Giants get the nod Monday at a great price. Madison Bumgarner remains one of the most underrated starters in the league, and Randy Wolf and the Brewers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers at home tonight.

Bumgarner is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.108 WHIP through eight starts this season. Wolf is 2-4 wiht a 6.38 ERA and 1.795 WHIP through eight starts for Milwaukee. Bumgarner is 3-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in four career starts against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 0-6 against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. The Giants are 8-1 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 33-16 in their last 49 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Brewers are 0-4 in Wolf's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Giants Monday.

15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +101

The Chicago Cubs clearly have the better starter on the mound in Matt Garza over Bud Norris. After six consecutive losses, including a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, the Cubs won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

They'll put an end to this losing streak behind Garza, who is 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander is is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 1.018 WHIP over his last three starts. Garza has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in four career starts against Houston.

Garza is 13-1 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 9-4 in Garza's last 13 starts, and 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. NL Central opponents. The Astros are 41-88 in their last 129 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Cubs Monday.

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT Monday No-Brainer on Boston -5.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a small home favorite in Game 5 of this series with the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston knows they did not play well in their first two home games in this series, and they want to come out and make a statement with a blowout home victory tonight with the series tied at 2-2.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 4. You can bet this team will come out hungry tonight, similarly to when they did in Game 3. After losing Game 2 at home, the Celtics went on the road and stole Game 3 with an emphatic 107-91 victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. This team plays their best in big games. Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 190.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in Game 4. These teams combined for 182 points last night in a 96-86 San Antonio victory. I expect another defensive battle in Game 4 with the Clippers playing for their playoff lives.

This play falls into a system that is 56-30 (65.1%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - poor free throw shooting team - making <=71% of their free throws, on Sunday games.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. These four trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -120

The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Sunday. The Angels are 34-14 (+17.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.

San Diego is the worst team in the league. The Padres are 4-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. The Angels are 21-8 in Ervin Santana's last 29 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

The Padres are 0-5 in Anthony Bass' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 games as a home underdog. The Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Angels Sunday.

20* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Playing on back-to-back days after a grueling 99-96 Game 3 victory by the Lakers, I fully expect both Los Angeles and Oklahoma City to be tired for Game 4. That will lead to tough shots and fewer buckets in transition as both teams work their offenses through the half court.

After combining for 152 points in Game 2, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 3. However, they combined to shoot 67-70 (96%) from the free throw line, which is the only reason that game went over the posted total of 191.5. Both teams won't shoot that well from the free throw line again on tired legs tonight.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers have controlled the tempo the last two games, and that will be the case again in Game 4 as this one gets slowed down to a snails pace. Don't expect there to be 70 free throws between these teams again. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -113

The Boston Red Sox are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday. Boston has a huge edge on the mound with Jon Lester over Joe Blanton, and they have the more potent line-up as well.

I understand that Blanton has posted better numbers this season than Lester, but that's simply an aberration when you look at what they've done in their careers. Lester is 78-37 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 162 career starts. Blanton is 77-65 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 205 career starts.

Lester has pitched his best away from home this season, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in five road starts. He is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a complete game victory over the Seattle Mariners in his last start in which he allowed just one earned run.

Lester is 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia. The Red Sox are 3-0 in those three games, so they have never lost when Lester faces the Phillies. Blanton is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in 10 career starts against Boston. Roll with the Red Sox Saturday.

15* Spurs/Clippers ABC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 191

Game 1 saw 200 combined points and Game 2 saw 193 combined points. I look for this trend to continue as the Spurs and Clippers don't combine to score more than 190 points in Game 3.

San Antonio controlled the tempo in the first two games at home, but Los Angeles figures to control the tempo at home this time around. The Spurs like to push the pace, while the Clippers operate best in the half court. This will be a half court game in Los Angeles tonight.

The Clippers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 11-3 to the UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The UNDER is 17-3-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.

The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 191.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1 with 209 combined points in a 119-90 Thunder victory, these teams came back to score 152 combined points in a 77-75 win for Oklahoma City in Game 2. I look for Game 3 to finish somewhere in between the first two contests, but it will play out closer to the Game 2 result.

Los Angeles returns home where they'll control the tempo tonight at Staples Center. They did a good job of controlling the pace in Game 2. The fact of the matter is it's simply tough to run in the playoffs, and the Thunder won't be able to in Game 3 against a hungry, motivated L.A. defense. This is a must-win game for the Lakers, and they'll be playing like it defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 88-43 (67.2%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 13-6 in Thunder last 19 road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.

15* Angels/Padres MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5 (+101)

With ace Jered Weaver on the mound Friday, I like the Los Angeles Angels' chances of beating the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs. San Diego starter Jeff Suppan is washed up and overmatched in this one.

Weaver has been tremendous this season, going 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 0.944 WHIP through eight starts. He has 49 strikeouts in 54 innings and he has already thrown a no-hitter to boot. Coming off his worst outing of the season at Texas, Weaver will be motivated to bounce back tonight.

Suppan has actually pitched very well in three starts this season, but he hasn't faced a line-up nearly as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Angels haven't hit that well yet this season, but it's only a matter of time with the talent they have up and down their line-up. Suppan has posted ERA's of 4.96, 5.29 and 5.06 in his last three seasons, respectively.

The Padres are 0-10 after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. They are getting outscored 2.1 to 5.3 in this spot, or by an average of 3.2 runs/game. Roll with the Angels on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-106)

After back-to-back losses to the lowly Minnesota Twins the last two days, it's safe to say that the Detroit Tigers will be hungry for a victory Friday. They turn to ace Justin Verlander to put an end to the losing streak, and I fully expect them to win in blowout fashion tonight over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Verlander won the AL MVP and the AL Cy Young last year in the same season. He has picked up right where he left off. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in eight starts this season. Verlander sports a 1.78 ERA and 0.758 WHIP through four home starts as well.

Charlie Morton gets the ball for Pittsburgh. Morton has gone 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in two road starts. As you can see, he's clearly overmatched in this one.

Pittsburgh is hitting .221 and scoring 2.9 runs/game this season, including .219 and 2.7 runs/game against right-handed starters. It's safe to say that Verlander will have his way with this weak line-up. Verlander is 34-6 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons, and the Tigers are winning by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Take Detroit on the Run Line.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -117

I'm going to back the San Diego Padres tonight as they clearly have the better starter on the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers just aren't the same without NL MVP candidate Matt Kemp in the line-up.

That has been evident in their last two games as the Dodgers have scored a combined 3 runs in losses to the Diamondbacks and Padres. Things won't get any easy for L.A. tonight against Edinson Volquez, who is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 8 starts this season.

Volquez really loves throwing in pitcher-friendly San Diego, where he has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.098 WHIP through six starts. He'll be opposed by the washed up Aaron Harang, who is 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 7 starts this season.

Harang is 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in four road starts this year. He has been blown up for 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 home runs over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against San Diego.

The Padres come in with some momentum after two straight wins. This play falls into a system that is 33-13 (71.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. Take San Diego Thursday.

20* Clippers/Spurs TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +11

It has certainly been a nice trend of backing teams that lose Game 1 in Game 2. I'm going to follow that path tonight as well by taking the Los Angeles Clippers as a double-digit underdog against the San Antonio Spurs.

Los Angeles hung tough in Game 1, but they simply didn't have the energy needed to keep up following their grueling 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies last round. With an extra day of rest, and knowing they cannot afford to go down 0-2, the Clippers will be giving max effort tonight for 48 minutes. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread.

San Antonio shot a ridiculous 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) from 3-point range in Game 1, and the odds are simply against them shooting that well again. They still only won by 15 points despite shooting so well from the perimeter. Look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments and to show better effort in rotating to San Antonio's 3-point shooters.

This play falls into a system that is 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 6.8 points/game in this spot. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +8

I really like taking teams in Game 2 of a playoff series after a bad loss in Game 1. That's precisely what I'll do tonight by backing the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday over the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet that the Lakers are going to give a much better showing in this one.

Los Angeles was simply tired from their Game 7 victory over Denver. The Lakers had to fly out to Oklahoma City, and they really didn't have a lot of time to prepare for the Thunder. After facing them once, and getting a practice day, the Lakers will be much more prepared for Game 2.

This is a team that sometimes just doesn't show up for whatever reason. However, when they really need a win, Kobe, Andrew Bynum and Co. really do give it their all, and usually come out on top. I look for that to be the case tonight and for this one to go right down to the wire as the Lakers make the proper adjustments on both sides of the ball.

"Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is," said Kobe Bryant, a five-time NBA champ. "They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will."

Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They are only outscoring opponents in this spot by an average of 3.7 points/game. The Thunder are also just 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by a mere 0.6 points/game. Take the Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-106)

Off back-to-back embarrassing losses to the Kansas City Royals, I look for the Texas Rangers to come out extra motivated for a win tonight. It will help having their best starter on the mound as well, which should lead to a blowout victory over the Oakland A's in Game 1 of this series.

Yu Darvish has lived up to the massive expectations set before him when the Rangers signed the Japanese star to huge contract this offseason. Darvish is 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA through seven starts in 2012. He has a whopping 51 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings.

A's starter Tom Milone has been solid at home this season, but it's been a completely different story for him outside of the hitter-friendly Coliseum. Milone is 2-2 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in four starts starts in 2012, surrendering 18 earned runs and 5 homers in 20 2/3 innings.

Texas is 20-3 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. They are winning by an average of 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* Celtics/76ers TNT Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +2

After a poor performance in Game 2 in which the Boston Celtics didn't even look like they were trying, I look for them to come out hungry and motivated in Game 3. Even though they didn't put their best foot forward, the Celtics still had a chance to win that game. You can bet the 76ers will be getting Boston's best effort tonight, which will be good enough for a Celtics win.

"I don't like the fact that we took, to me, almost three quarters to play the right way offensively," coach Doc Rivers said. "We knew the blueprint before the game. It took us three quarters to get into it. I always say that's on me. Somehow, I have to figure that out with our guys."

"Being in their building really isn't going to affect us," Ray Allen said. "It's all about how we play them when we get out there, how we take care and work together better than what we did (in Game 2)."

Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also 8-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take these 100% & 92% systems straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.

15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +170

I'm taking a stab at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday at a great price. Their starting pitcher tonight is in better form than Miami's, yet they are a huge underdog in this contest. You're not going to find much better value than what we're getting here.

These teams share similar records as the Pirates are 17-18, while the Marlins are 18-17 coming in. Pittsburgh has won three straight, so they're also playing with a lot of confidence. Starter Kevin Correia has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in six starts this season, and he's 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in three road outings.

Miami went on a nice run from the end of April to midway through May, but the Marlins have cooled off by losing two of their last three. Josh Johnson isn't the same pitcher after coming off surgery in the offseason. Johnson is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.695 WHIP through seven starts in 2012.

Correia is 11-5 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 9-23 against the money line in home games after a one run loss over the last 3 seasons. Correia is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pirates Tuesday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my favorite bet for the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs Tuesday. I look for Indiana to not only cover this inflated 7-point spread in Game 2, but to likely win it outright as well.

Miami is really going to miss Chris Bosh. The Pacers already have a huge length advantage in this series over the Heat, and now their height is going to be an even bigger edge. Bosh is underrated as he averages 18.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, and that's production that simply cannot be replaced.

The Pacers proved they could play with the Heat in Game 1. They held a 48-42 lead at halftime, and were tied 70-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter before getting outscored 16-25 over the final period. I look for Indiana to finish much stronger in this all-important Game 2 tonight.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series overall. Indiana is a very profitable 217-163 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1996. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +150

The Los Angeles Angels continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Oakland A's are not getting enough of it. I'll take full advantage by backing the A's at an excellent price Tuesday.

Oakland has been the better team this season, going 19-17 while the Angels are just 15-21. The biggest reason I am on the A's tonight is the match-up on the mound, which I believe favors Oakland.

Bartolo Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, is 3-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in five road starts in 2012. Ervin Santana is 1-6 with a 5.09 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a 5.22 ERA in three home starts.

Colon is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his last five starts against the Angels. He pitched 8 shutout innings on April 18th this season en route to a 6-0 victory at Los Angeles. Santana gave up 4 earned runs and 2 homers over 7 innings in that same game.

Colon is 15-3 against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. The A's are 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The Angels are 1-10 in Santana's last 11 starts, losing 91% of the time. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Santana's last 5 starts as a home favorite. Roll with the A's Tuesday.

15* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -122

The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies Monday. The Rockies are really struggling right now, losers of three straight and eight of their last nine. This is a streaky team, and now is certainly the time to fade them.

Ryan Vogelsong remains one of the most underrated starts in the league. The right-hander has posted a 2.94 ERA through five starts this season, including a 2.03 ERA in two home starts. Vogelsong is 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.713 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado, having never lost to the Rockies.

Colorado is 7-25 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 games as a road underdog. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Francisco is 51-25 in their last 76 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take the Giants Monday.

20* Lakers/Thunder Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +7.5

I look for Game 1 of this series to go right down to the wire. Throughout the years, there's no question that Game 1 has been THE GAME for the road team to steal. At full strength with Metta World Peace back, the Lakers are as dangerous as any team left in the playoffs.

The Lakers are riding high following their impressive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets a few nights ago. They have the momentum heading into this contest. That's because while Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, they haven't played a game in 8 days. Look for the Thunder to come out rusty in this one.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games overall. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -109

Great value here on the New York Yankees in Game 1 of this series against the Baltimore Orioles Monday. Jason Hammel and the Orioles are overrated right now after their surprising fast start. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The Yankees have something special going with Ivan Nova as they just simply tend to win when he gets the ball. Nova has been especially solid on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts away from home in 2012.

Nova is 3-1 with a 3.96 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore. While Hammel has posted good numbers this year, he's certainly outperforming what he has done his entire career in the big leagues. Hammel is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in six career starts against New York.

New York is 58-23 against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs since 1997. The Yankees are 20-7 in Nova's last 27 starts overall. New York is 7-0 in Nova's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 50-17 in their last 67 meetings with the Orioles. Roll with the Yankees Monday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -165

After losing the last two games of this series, the Detroit Tigers are highly motivated to salvage it with a win Sunday. With Ace Justin Verlander on the mound, I have no doubt they'll get the job done in this one.

Verlander is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.935 WHIP through seven starts in 2012. Verlander is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 12 career starts against Oakland.

Verlander is 16-2 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is 20-4 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Take the Tigers Sunday.

20* Pacers/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most dangerous threat to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. They are way undervalued coming into this Game 1 showdown against the Heat Sunday, and I'll take full advantage.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Pacers got progressively better. Indiana lost by 35 in their first meeting, and by 15 in their second. Then, in their third meeting, the Pacers lost in overtime 93-91, and won their 4th meeting 105-90.

The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Heat are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -260

"Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad," said Pau Gasol, who managed three points on 1-for-10 shooting and three rebounds in Game 6. "We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do."

The Lakers are clearly focused and ready to play this game tonight. They can beat anyone in the league when that's the case, and I fully expect them to make easy work of the Nuggets in Game 7. And the cavalry is coming, in the form of an intense defender with dangerous elbows: Metta World Peace will start Game 7 after finishing his seven-game suspension for viciously hitting Oklahoma City's James Harden in the regular season.

"I expect him to come out and play with the tenacity that he's known for," Kobe Bryant said. "He's the one guy I can rely on, night in, night out, to compete and play hard, and play with that sense of urgency, play with no fear. I'm looking forward to having that on my side again." He called out his teammates, and I expect them to respond in this one.

The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home. This is the biggest reason I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of the spread. I have no doubt they'll get it done as they put together their best effort in these 2012 playoffs. Bet the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 Saturday.

15* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -130

The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as a small favorite over the Oakland A's Saturday. Following their embarrassing 11-4 loss to the A's last night, there's no question the Tigers will be motivated for a win in Game 3.

Doug Fister has been untouchable thus far. Fister has posted a 0.00 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two starts this season, not giving up a single earned run while allowing just 8 base runners over 10 2/3 innings.

Fister loves pitching against the A's. The right-hander is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 10 career starts against Oakland. Detroit is 10-1 in Fister's last 11 starts overall. The Tigers are 7-0 in Fister's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Tigers are 45-18 in their last 63 games following a loss. Detroit is 21-5 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 6-16 in their last 22 as a home underdog. Roll with the Tigers Saturday.

15* NL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -122

You will rarely get Adam Wainwright at this kind of price at home. I'll take full advantage Saturday by backing Wainwright and the Cardinals Saturday. After a tough extra-innings loss to the Braves last night, the Cardinals are out for revenge in this one.

Wainwright has seemed to find his groove lately, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings. In the most recent of those, he allowed one run over seven innings and matched a season high with seven strikeouts in an 8-1 victory in Houston.

"It was the first time all year I've really felt extension out over the rubber and better life on the fastball, especially early on," Wainwright said. "I controlled the counts for the most part and let our defense work."

The right-hander will next try to pick up where he left off against the Braves. Wainwright (2-3, 5.61 ERA) has won each of his six career starts versus Atlanta - the most recent on Sept. 9, 2010 - while posting a 2.48 ERA. Take the Cardinals Saturday.

15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -141

The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most underrated teams in the league. I believe they are a legitimate contender in the AL East, though they don't get treated like it. The Blue Jays have a potent line-up and an underrated rotation, one that includes Kyle Drabek.

Drabek was a big-time prospect, and now he's living up to the hype as an everyday starter in Toronto. He has posted a 3.34 ERA through six starts this season. Drabek faced Minnesota once last season, allowing just one earned run over 7 innings in a 6-1 victory.

At 8-23, the Twins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Things won't get any easier for them tonight with Nick Blackburn on the mound. The righty is winless on the season, going 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.595 WHIP through five starts. The Twins are 0-5 in his five starts in 2012.

The Twins are 1-10 in Blackburn's last 11 starts overall, including 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Minnesota is 4-17 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Blue Jays Friday.

15* Tigers/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -125

The Detroit Tigers should be a much heavier favorite over the Oakland A's tonight. They exploded for 10 runs yesterday in a 10-6 victory over the A's in Game 1, and I look for the bats to stay red hot tonight against the overrated Tom Milone.

Milone has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs, 18 base runners and 4 home runs over 9 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Detroit starter Rick Porcello has been dominant in his last two starts, yielding just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 14 1/3 innings.

Porcello is 9-1 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 21-4 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. Porcello is 9-0 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot by an average of 4.9 runs/game. Take Detroit Friday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -1.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are favored for good reason tonight. I'll side with the oddsmakers in this one and back the Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday. Despite being down 3-2 in this series, I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team.

Los Angeles has simply had good fortune late in games, which is the reason they lead this series. That good fortune has appeared to run out as their two superstars both suffered injuries in their Game 5 loss to the Grizzlies, and each is banged up heading into this one.

Griffin suffered a hyperflexed left knee in the loss. Though he was able to return, Griffin wasn't very effective in Game 5. Paul aggravated a right groin injury during the fourth quarter of Wednesday's defeat. He played through the injury for most of the final quarter before sitting out the final minute of the game. Paul is actually a game-time decision tonight.

The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Memphis in Game 6 Friday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

You could make the argument that every game in this series should have gone UNDER the total. The UNDER is 3-2 in the first five games, with the two OVERS going over by a combined 5.5 points. It took a 60-point combined 4th quarter in Game 5 for it to go OVER.

What I'm saying is that the clear value in Game 6 is with the UNDER. The defensive intensity in this game will be greater than any other game in this series yet. The Lakers have taken two games off defensively, and those are the two games that went OVER as Denver topped 100 points in each.

The Lakers will not take tonight off defensively. They realize they let a big opportunity slip away in Game 5, and now Kobe Bryant will rally the troops and make sure that his team executes on defense. Andrew Bynum has been called out by the media, so look for him to be a defensive stopper in the paint.

Los Angeles also got out of their game offensively in Game 5. They tried to run with Denver, which doesn't work. Look for the Lakers to slow down the pace and run their offense through their big men inside. This game will be played at a much slower tempo than Game 5 as the Lakers get back in transition defensively, and execute better offensively.

These teams have combined to average 191.8 points/game through the first five games, which is more than 5 points less than the posted total tonight. The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Denver. These teams combined for 183 and 180 points in Games 3 and 4 in Denver, respectively.

The Lakers are 10-2 to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 21-6 in Lakers last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

After failing to close out the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 with a tough 1-point loss in Atlanta, the Boston Celtics won't waste another opportunity in Game 6 tonight. I fully expect the Celtics to roll in blowout fashion and put the Hawks out of their misery.

I look for this game to take a similar path to Game 4, where the Celtics led huge the entire way. Boston would win that contest 101-79 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Atlanta is a very tired team right now as they had four of their five starters play 41 or more minutes in Game 5. The other, Marvin Williams, played nearly 36 minutes. The Hawks didn't have one bench player play more than 8 minutes in Game 5. Look for Atlanta to ware down in the 4th quarter tonight.

The Hawks are 9-24 ATS in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.

15* Rangers/Orioles Game 1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas -125

This is an excellent price to back to two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers tonight in Game 3 of this series with Baltimore. Texas is raking at the plate right now, outscoring the Orioles 24-6 while winning the first two games of this series. I expect them to stay red hot tonight.

Texas sends Ace Colby Lewis to the mound as he looks to continue his solid start to the 2012 season. Lewis is 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.144 WHIP while striking out 31 batters in 39 2/3 innings. Off his worst start of the season against the Cleveland Indians, I fully expect Lewis to bounce back in a big way tonight.

Lefty Wei-Yin Chen is off to a decent start for the Orioles this season in his rookie year. However, he's in line to get rocked against a Rangers team that is batting .310 and scoring 7.1 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2012.

The Rangers are 13-1 against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Texas is 10-1 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 29-61 in their last 90 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Rangers Thursday.

20* Tigers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -128

After finally putting an end to a 5-game losing streak to Seattle last night with a 6-4 victory, I look for the Detroit Tigers to start their own winning streak in this series. The Tigers should run away with Game 3 tonight with the better starter and the better line-up.

Rookie Drew Smyly is one of the most underrated starters in the league this season in the early going. Smyly (1-0, 1.61 ERA), who began the season at Triple-A Toledo, has been a pleasant surprise while allowing five earned runs and striking out 29 in 28 innings of his first five career starts.

Jason Vargas is an average starter in this league for Seattle, but he has not fared well against his opposition tonight. Vargas is 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in four career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. Detroit is 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mariners are 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Tigers Wednesday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis Grizzlies -6

In Game 5 Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies represent my strongest release of the entire 1st round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. I have Memphis rolling to a blowout victory by double-digits tonight to extend this series. This game won't be nearly as competitive as the first four.

Memphis should arguably be up 3-1 in this series. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, then proceeded to go on the road to lose two games in Los Angeles by a combined 5 points. I have no doubt that Memphis is the better team, and they'll show it on the floor tonight as they take out their frustration on these Clippers.

Los Angeles is in a big letdown spot here. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Clippers are very comfortable with their position in this series. That will allow them to relax as a team knowing that they have a home contest in Game 6 in their hip pocket. This will easily be the worst effort of the series from L.A.

The Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 30-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5

Once again, oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. In an elimination game for Denver, this contest will be played with a very high level of intensity defensively. These teams will not reach 200 or more combined points.

The first four games in this series have seen 191, 204, 183 and 180 combined points, respectively. That's an average of 189.5 points/game, which is 10 full points lower than the posted total tonight. As you can see, we are basically getting 10 points of value on this UNDER in Game 5.

The Lakers have controlled the tempo in this series from Game 1. Denver likes to get out and run, but the Lakers simply haven't been allowing it. At Staples Center, Los Angeles will control the tempo once again tonight and make this a half-court game.

Los Angeles is 10-1 (91%) to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-5 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in this series, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-109)

My only loss yesterday in a 2-1 performance came on the Detroit Tigers as they blew a 2-0 lead going into the bottom of the 9th. Octavio Dotel gave up 3 runs in the final half inning to lose the game for Detroit. I was obviously frustrated with the loss, but the Tigers will be even more angry and I fully expect them to take it out on the Mariners in Game 2 tonight.

Detroit has a lot of reason to be motivated heading into this one. The Tigers were swept at Comerica Park by the Mariners earlier this season, and they've now lost five straight to Seattle. There's no better starter they could have on the mound tonight to try and put an end to this losing streak.

Ace Justin Verlander, last year's AL Cy Young AND MVP winner, gets the ball in Game 2. Verlander is 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in six starts this season, so he's clearly picked up right where he left off last year. He'll be up against Kevin Millwood, the washed up veteran who is 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA nd 1.570 WHIP in five starts in 2012.

Verlander is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this situation by an average of 5.1 to 2.5 runs, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs/game. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Rays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on New York -114

Rarely ever will you get the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite. I'll take full advantage tonight as they take down the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this AL East series. The Yankees trail the Rays within the division, so they'll certainly be up for this one.

The fact of the matter is that Tampa Bay isn't the same team without Evan Longoria, who went out for up to eight weeks with a hamstring injury. James Shields is a good starter, but he has not fared well against the Yankees. Shields is 5-11 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 21 career starts against New York.

Ivan Nova won 15 straight decisions before taking the loss last time out against the Baltimore Orioles. That's the second longest such streak in Yankees history, which says a lot. Without the pressure of the streak on his shoulders, the righty can get back to just focusing on pitching.

Nova is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in four career starts against Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 4-0 in those four contests, so they've never lost when Nova goes against the Rays. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

15* Tigers/Mariners AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit -132

Doug Fister returns from the disabled list tonight to take on his former team in the Seattle Mariners. The Detroit Tigers have a big edge on the mound with Fister tonight, plus they have a much stronger line-up. I have them taking Game 1 of this series with room to spare.

Detroit is going to be highly motivated heading into this one after getting swept by Seattle at Comerica Park last month. Fister went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in 11 starts last season for Detroit after getting traded from the Mariners before the deadline.

Blake Beavan is off to a slow start for Seattle, going 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA through five starts this season. He gave up 5 earned runs and two homers over 5 1/3 innings in a 4-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last time out.

The Tigers are 19-2 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 10-1 in Fister's last 11 starts. The Mariners are 25-59 in their last 84 games as an underdog. Take Detroit Monday.

15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -109

The Boston Red Sox are showing tremendous value Monday as a small road favorite over the Kansas City Royals. After five straight losses, it's safe to say that the Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series tonight.

We have a pair of South Paws going at it Monday, which clearly favors Boston. The Red Sox are scoring 6.7 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, while the Royals are hitting .206 and scoring 1.5 runs/game against lefties in 2012.

Jonathan Sanchez just hasn't been a good addition to this Kansas City rotation. The lefty is 1-1 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in five starts this season, and he has posted an 8.21 ERA and 2.216 WHIP in two home starts.

The Royals are 0-8 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Kansas City is 0-9 against the money line after 3 or more consecutive home games this season. The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter. These four trends make for a perfect 29-0 system backing Boston. Roll with the Red Sox Monday.

20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8.5

I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.

Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8.5 points. That's 3 full points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.

This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.

The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202

In this all-important Game 4 Sunday between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, I have no doubt this will be a defensive battle. This is the "make or break" game for Denver. If they want to win this series, they must win Game 4. The level of intensity on the defensive end will be at an all-time high in this series.

Once again, oddsmakers have missed their mark in setting this total much higher than it should be. Two of the first three games have gone UNDER the posted total with combined scores of 191, 204 and 183 points. That's an average of 192.7 points/game, which is nearly 10 points lower than the posted total tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.

This play falls into another system that is 30-5 (85.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Phillies/Nationals ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +104

Any time I can get Cole Hamels as an underdog I'm going to look to take advantage. This guy remains one of the most underrated starters in the league. Somehow, he even gets overlooked on his own team considering Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee reside in Philadelphia.

Hamels went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 31 starts last season. The left-hander has picked up right where he left off, going 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings in 2012.

After losing the first two games of this series, the Phillies are highly-motivated to salvage it with a Game 3 victory. Hamels is 10-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 20 career starts against Washington, so I like their chances. Jordan Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three career starts against Philly.

The Phillies are 25-6 in Hamels' last 31 May starts. The Phillies are 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philly is 9-1 in Hamels' last 10 starts vs. Washington, including 4-0 in his last 4 road starts in this series. Take the Phillies Sunday.

15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -170

I rarely lay this kind of juice, but I'm willing to do so Sunday on the Texas Rangers with 100% confidence that they'll win this game against the Cleveland Indians. They have a huge edge on the mound and at the plate in the Game 3 rubber match.

Yu Darvish has been everything he was expected to be and more. Darvish is 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA through five starts this season, striking out 33 batters in 33 innings. The Rangers are 5-0 in his five starts, and they improve to 6-0 tonight with him on the mound this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez is done for. He has lost velocity on his fastball, and the Indians simply made a terrible trade last year. However, Cleveland isn't ready to give up on him, so Jimenez is going to continue to get rocked. The righty is 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.744 WHIP in five starts this season.

The Rangers are 22-6 in the last 28 meetings with the Indians, including 14-4 in their last 18 meetings in Cleveland. Texas is 10-0 against the money line as a road favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Rangers Sunday.

15* Spurs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202.5

Oddsmakers continue to set the total too high in this San Antonio Spurs versus Utah Jazz series. Game 1 was set at 205.5 and finished with 197 combined points, and Game 2 was set at 202.5 and finished with 197 combined points as well. They have set Game 3 at 202.5, and it's once again too many points.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That favors the defenses as teams know how to take away the offensive strengths of the opposition. After the Spurs average 110 points/game in the first two games of this series, I have no doubt that Utah will make the proper adjustments to slow down San Antonio.

Utah has averaged 88.3 points/game in their last three meetings with San Antonio, so the Spurs have them figured out. The Jazz have been a solid defensive team at home all season, allowing just 95.9 points/game in Salt Lake City. The Spurs give up 96.2 points/game on the season.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -1.5

This series is over. It's just like the Los Angeles Lakers last year when they got swept by the Mavericks. The Lakers should have won the first two games of that series, but they lost both and did not really show up in Games 3 and 4.

The Mavericks should have won at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City, but they lost both and were blown out in Game 3. Knowing that no team has ever come back to win a series from an 0-3 deficit, the Mavericks feel like they are already beaten and won't show up in Game 4.

The Thunder are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.

15* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -131

Off three straight losses, the Texas Rangers are highly-motivated for a win Saturday. The two-time defending AL champs are in the midst of their first losing streak of the season, and you can bet they do not like how it tastes. I expect them to do something about it in Game 2 of this series with the Cleveland Indians tonight.

Texas starter Derek Holland is one of the best young left-handers in the game. He has faced the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays in his last three starts, and as you can imagine he hasn't fared too well.

After facing three of the best line-ups in baseball, Holland now gets a break against one of the worst. The lefty is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland, and the Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in those games having never lost when Holland starts.

The Rangers are 41-17 in their last 58 games following a loss. Texas is 27-7 in their last 34 games as a road favorite. The Rangers are 14-2 in their last 16 during Game 2 of a series. Cleveland is 8-20 in their last 28 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 21-6 in the last 26 meetings with the Indians, including 13-4 in their last 16 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Rangers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 187

The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are highly likely to play in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this all-important Game 3 tonight. I know the first two games went OVER, but there's no question shots will be tougher to come by as the defense gets amped up with the series tied 1-1.

The Game 1 total was set at 183.5, and the Game 2 total was set at 184.5. They have jacked this total up to 187, providing us with a lot of value on the UNDER. The first two games of this series have been out of the ordinary as their three regular season meetings saw 179, 186 and 187 combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season.

The Clippers are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Marlins/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -118

Year in and year out, the Miami Marlins tend to play their best baseball on the road. They are coming off a 3-game sweep at San Francisco, and they head into this series with San Diego with a lot of confidence.

Getting Ace Josh Johnson as a small favorite over the lowly Padres is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight. Johnson isn't off to the best start, but as a result he's undervalued right now.

This guy is still one of the best starters in the game, and he'll have no problem mowing down this weak Padres' line-up. Johnson has posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in four career starts against San Diego.

The Marlins are 35-16 in Johnson's last 51 starts with 4 days of rest. Miami is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Marlins are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. The Padres are 16-38 in their last 54 games as a home underdog. Roll with the Marlins Friday.

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179

The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Game 3. The first two games in Chicago were unusually high-scoring, but I have no doubt that defense will prevail in this all-important Game 3.

The fact of the matter is that the Bulls simply play in more low-scoring games when Derrick Rose is not on the floor. They average 7 less points/game offensively, and give up 4.5 points less defensively. Philly isn't going to shoot anywhere near 59.0 percent again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2.

This play falls into a system that is 47-19 to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (Chicago) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Chicago is 23-7 to the UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 27-12 in 76ers last 39 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -143

Off rare back-to-back losses, the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers are hungry for a win Friday. They are well-rested after having Thursday off, so I believe they'll be ready to go in Game 1 against Cleveland tonight.

Their two recent losses mark the first time all season that Texas (17-8) has dropped back-to-back games. That just shows the resiliency of this ball club as they don't let themselves go on long losing streaks.

Ace Colby Lewis gets the ball tonight and he's having a tremendous year. Lewis is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.041 WHIP with 29 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. Jeanmar Gomez is off to a surprising solid start for Cleveland, but reality sets in tonight against one of the best line-ups in baseball.

The Rangers are 41-16 in their last 57 games following a loss. Texas is 27-6 in their last 33 games as a road favorite. The Rangers are 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 starts as a road favorite. Cleveland is 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog. The Rangers are 21-5 in the last 26 meetings with the Indians, including 13-3 in their last 16 meetings in Cleveland. Texas is 4-0 in Lewis' 4 career starts against the Indians. Take Texas Friday.

25* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Angels -128

The Los Angeles Angels are finally starting to play up to their potential. They just swept the Minnesota Twins, capped by a no-hitter from Jered Weaver last night. I look for the Angels to use that no-hitter to bring themselves closer together as a team.

Plus, after your Ace throws a no-hitter, everyone else on the staff tends to try to pick their game up. Dan Haren is also an Ace, but he just so happens to be playing on the same team as Weaver, so he's slotted into the No. 2 spot.

Haren has been solid this season, going 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in five starts. He has been real dominant over his last three starts, going 1-0 wtih a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP.

Brandon Morrow is no match for Haren in this one. Morrow is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in three career starts against Los Angeles. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in those games, and I look for this all-time winless streak to continue tonight.

The Angels are 32-12 in their last 44 home games with a total set of 7 or less. Los Angeles is 35-17 in their last 52 games as a home favorite. The Angels are 5-1 in Haren's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Angels Thursday.