25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12

The Cleveland Cavaliers represent the best underdog for the entire 2011-12 season Friday. Cleveland continues to fight despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they are catching way too many points here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

The betting public has not wanted to back Cleveland since PG Kyrie Irving went out with an injury. But the Cavaliers have been a money-making machine since, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They won twice outright, lost twice in overtime and lost by 9 at Milwaukee.

Cleveland has a bunch of players right now that are fighting to prove that they belong in the NBA, and they are auditioning for jobs next season. Lester Hudson is the perfect example, averaging 23.3 points in his last four games, including an incredible 12.5 points in the fourth quarter.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana is 2-1 against Cleveland this season, but both of their wins came in overtime. Cleveland beat Indiana 98-87 on February 15th. This is a home-and-home situation as the Pacers beat the Cavs 104-98 (OT) on Wednesday.

I almost always take the team that lost the first of a home-and-home situation in their second game. That's because the winning team has a hard time getting up emotionally to beat a team that they just beat a day or two ago. Meanwhile, the team that lost the first game is out for revenge and has no trouble getting motivated.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Pacers. Bet Cleveland Friday.

15* Diamondbacks/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -132

Ian Kennedy arguably should have won the Cy Young last season after going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.086 WHIP with 198 strikeouts in 222 innings. Motivated to go after the prestigious award again, Kennedy is in line for another monster season.

He's off to a 1-0 start after beating the San Francisco Giants in their opener. Arizona has started fast, going 4-1 through their first five games with their only loss coming by a single run last night. I look for the Diamondbacks to have their revenge with the huge edge they have on the mound in this one.

Kennedy is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in seven lifetime starts versus San Diego. Padres' starter Anthony Bass, who has only started three games in his career, is no match for Kennedy in this one.

Kennedy is 15-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Kennedy is 14-1 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 starts vs. Padres. Roll with Arizona Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are very hungry for a win tonight following rare back-to-back losses heading in. The Spurs lost at Utah 84-91 on Monday mainly because they sat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli for rest. San Antonio lost 84-98 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Perhaps they didn't get up for that game since Kobe Bryant wasn't playing.

One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies have the Spurs' full attention tonight. San Antonio has not lost three in a row all season, and they're not about to start Thursday. Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are overvalued in this spot.

Remember, San Antonio lost to Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season, so the Spurs want revenge. The Spurs have gotten plenty of revenge thus far, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Memphis this season. They want to stick the dagger in and twist it tonight by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0.

The Spurs are 23-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. The Grizzlies are 13-16 on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.2 points/game at home, while Memphis is putting up a mere 91.8 points/game on the road.

The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* Heat/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls have been the best team in the league this season despite playing without Derrick Rose for much of it. The Bulls are 44-14 this season, including 16-7 without Rose, to grab ahold of the No. 1 seed in the East and in the NBA.

Rose is expected to return tonight from an ankle injury, so getting the Bulls as a mere 1.5-point home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Chicago has 82 consecutive home sellouts at the United Center, and these fans will be rocking as a Bulls win would all but assure them of the No. 1 seed in the East.

Miami has not been playing well of late, and it's not just going to change tonight against the best team in the NBA. The Heat lost 115-107 at home to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, allowing them to shoot 60.6 percent from the floor. In the last 10 games, the Heat have yielded an average of 95.8 points on 47.3 percent shooting, the latter notably higher than their season mark of 43.2 percent.

Chicago is 23-6 at hom this season, while Miami is just 16-12 on the road. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, failing to cover the spread 88% of the time. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Miami. Take Chicago Thursday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -119

Getting Tim Lincecum at this price tonight against the Colorado Rockies is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Lincecum remains one of the best starters in the game today, and I look for him to continue his domination of the Rockies.

Lincecum is 8-6 with a 3.27 ERA in 17 career starts against Colorado. He has given up just 6 earned runs over 29 1/3 innings in his last four starts against the Rockies while going 3-1 in the process.

Colorado starter Jeremy Guthrie has posted average-at-best numbers throughout his career. He gave up 4 earned runs, 10 base runners and two home runs over 6 innings in his lone career start against San Francisco in 2010. He's no match for Lincecum.

The Giants are scoring 5.2 runs/game this season, while the Rockies are hitting just .180 and scoring 2.5 runs/game this year. Colorado is 11-31 against the money line after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits since 1997. The Rockies are 17-44 in their last 61 games as an underdog, and 0-8 in their last 8 home games. Take the Giants Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Spurs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 201.5

The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a great rivalry as these two teams have been the top contenders in the Western Conference over the last decade. Defense usually reigns supreme.

Ten straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. Dating back further, 21 of the last 22 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

The Lakers are really going to miss Kobe Bryant offensively. They struggled in their last game without him, beating the Hornets 93-91 for 184 combined points. The Lakers are trying to slow it down offensively and run their offense through Bynum and Gasol without Bryant on the floor. They cannot afford to run with the Spurs, and will not try to tonight.

The UNDER is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 22-8 in Spurs last 30 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 8.5 points at home against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are the team in the playoff hunt, the Cavaliers have showed no signs of packing it in. I look for Cleveland to give Indiana all they can handle.

The Cavaliers do have some injury concerns right now with Kyrie Irving out and Anderson Varejao questionable, but they have actually been playing better without Irving. Many players are getting a chance to prove that they belong in the league, and they are making the most of their opportunities.

Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes a road win at Toronto and a 13-point home victory over the Bobcats. They also gave the Bucks and Nets all they could handle on the road in losing efforts. Guard Lester Hudson is one player taking advantage of the extra playing time, averaging 24.7 points in his last three games.

The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana won the first meeting on December 30th at home by a final of 98-91 in overtime. Cleveland would get their revenge with a 98-87 home victory on February 14th. The home team has won four of the last five, and I look for the home dominance to continue tonight.

Indiana is 0-11 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season, losing by an average score of 88.8 to 95.1 in this spot. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends make for an 18-0 system backin Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Wizards OVER 195

The Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards should easily combine for 196-plus points tonight, and I'm expecting 210-plus by game's end. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set given the circumstances heading into this one.

Dwight Howard, the best defensive 'eraser' in the game who can make of for teammates mistakes defensively, is listed as doubtful with a back injury tonight. Without Howard last night, the Magic beat the Detroit Pistons 119-89 for 208 combined points.

Not only does Howard make their defense twice as good, he is also the player that their offense runs through. Without having to run their offense through Howard, the Magic can now play a more up-tempo game with a smaller line-up. That's what they did against Detroit, and that's what they'll do against Washington tonight.

The Wizards are also without two of their best defensive players in C Nene and F Trevor Booker, who are each listed as doubtful with foot injuries. The Wizards were without these two last night against Charlotte, and they exploded for 113 points in a 28-point victory over the Bobcats.

The last two meetings in this series went OVER the posted total with a 109-103 home victory for Orlando and 212 combined points on February 1st, and a 102-95 road victory for the Magic and 197 combined points on February 29th.

The OVER is 6-2 in Orlando's last 8 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog. These last three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -120

Rarely will you get the Red Sox as a small favorite over any team in the league. Because of their slow 1-3 start, I believe Boston is showing great value right now. This is the time to back them at a 'bargain' price while you can.

Daniel Bard moves from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season in an excellent move by the Red Sox. Bard has posted a 2.88 ERA and 1.056 WHIP with 213 strikeouts in 197 innings in his three-year career thus far.

Kyle Drabek is nothing more than a prospect that just hasn't panned out for Toronto. Drabek is 4-8 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 21 appearances (17 starts) in his two-year career. He went 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts against Boston last year, allowing 12 earned runs, 22 base runners, and 5 home runs in 9 innings.

The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in Toronto. The Red Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. Take Boston Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -132

The New York Yankees are favorites to win the AL East this season. Getting New York at this price against the Baltimore Orioles, picked to finish last in the AL East, is an absolute bargain Tuesday.

The reason we are getting a good price on New York Tuesday is due to the fact that the Yankees opened 0-3. I had them picked last night with a 6-2 win over the Orioles for their first win of the year, and I'm siding with them again in this spot.

Freddy Garcia was a big reason for New York's success last year. The veteran right-handed went 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA in 25 starts. Wei-Ying Chen, formerly from a Japanese league, is no match for Garcia in this one.

Garcia is 53-28 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. Baltimore is 11-31 against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 47-15 in their last 62 meetings with Baltimore. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. While I have been riding the Bucks a lot lately against some of the weaker competition in this league, and they have been playing well, now is the time to fade them.

The Bucks are 19-4 against teams below .500 this season, but just 9-24 against teams above .500. After losing three of their last four, the Thunder are a very inspired team right now. They will be going after Milwaukee with everything they have tonight, especially considering they are tied with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the West.

Milwaukee is 45-71 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NL Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -163

The Atlanta Braves have opened the season 0-3 with three straight heartbreaking losses to the New York Mets by a combined 5 runs. Motivated for their first win of the year, I have the Braves blowing out the Houston Astros tonight.

Atlanta will send Brandon Beachy to the mound tonight to get the job done. Beachy is coming off an impressive rookie season in which he went 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.207 WHIP while striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings.

Beachy will be up against J.A. Happ, who is coming off a disastrous 2011 campaign. Happ went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in 28 starts last year.

Houston is 8-26 after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 7-26 in Happ's last 33 starts. The Braves are 10-2 in all meetings with the Astros over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta Monday.

15* AL Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -147

After opening the season 0-3 with three straight losses to the Tampa Bay Rays, I like the New York Yankees' chances of bouncing back with their first win of the season against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

The Yankees lost those three games by a combined 6 runs, so there's no question they are going to be hungry for a win tonight. Baltimore has opened 3-0 this season with three wins over the lowly Minnesota Twins, and I believe they are even overvalued in this spot.

Ivan Nova is coming off a tremendous rookie year, going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 27 starts for the Yankees. The same cannot be said for Brian Matusz, who went 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA and 2.114 WHIP last season. Matusz is now 16-23 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 52 career starts.

Nova is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore, while Matusz is 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. The Yankees are 6-0 in Nova's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 0-8 in Matusz's last 8 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Yankees Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cleveland Cavaliers since Kyrie Irving went down with an injury. As a result, Cleveland is showing great value today against the New Jersey Nets, who should not be favored by 7.5 against any team in this league. I don't see the Nets being too motivated to play the Cavaliers tonight, which will make it tough for them to cover this large number.

Because their lines have been inflated of late, the Cavaliers have covered two straight with a 9-point loss at red-hot Milwaukee as a 12.5-point underdog, and an 84-80 outright win at Toronto as a 7-point dog. I can see them winning this game outright as well.

While the Cavaliers are without Irving, they have actually had other players step up in a big way. Antawn Jamison poured in 25 points against the Raptors, and Lester Hudson came off the bench to score 23 points. They have several players that are ready to take advantage of their opportunities.

The Nets are 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 0-10 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These three trends make for a 25-1 (96%) System backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Royals/Angels OVER 8

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the better offenses in the league, and that will be on full display Sunday.

Jonathan Sanchez has never been a star. The lefty is 38-46 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 118 career starts. He went 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.441 WHIP last year in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Sanchez will put up even worse numbers in the hitter-loaded American League this season. He gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Angels.

While Ervin Santana is coming off a very solid season, this is just one team he cannot seem to figure out. Santana is 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 13 career starts against Kansas City. He has given up 10 earned runs and four homers in his last two starts against the Royals. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -122

Rarely will you ever get the Philadelphia Phillies at this price, especially against a team as poor as the Pittsburgh Pirates. Off a one-run loss to the Pirates yesterday, I like the Phillies to bounce back with a blowout victory Sunday.

Vance Worley was one of the most profitable pitchers in the league to back last season. That's because he's very good, but he gets overlooked due to the talented Big 3 at the front of the Phillies starting rotation. It appears as if he's starting out 2012 undervalued once again.

Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 21 starts last season. He'll be up against James McDonald, who went 9-9 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 31 starts last year. McDonald is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two career starts against Philly.

The Phillies are 17-5 in Worley's last 22 starts overall, including 7-1 in his last 8 road starts. Philly is 21-5 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 18-42 in their last 60 games overall. Roll with the Phillies Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rays OVER 8

Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set Sunday. There is a ton of value with the OVER 8 runs here in a game that I believe the total should be set at 9 or higher.

Both Phil Hughes and Jeremy Hellickson are getting too much respect here. Hughes went 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.487 WHIP last season. While Hellickson had a solid year, he was one of the most "lucky" pitchers in baseball in batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Both starters haven't been superb against their opposition. Hughes has a 4.21 ERA in six career starts against Tampa while Hellickson sports a 4.07 ERA in four career starts against New York.

The OVER is 10-1-2 in ump Andy Fletcher's last 13 games behind home plate. The OVER is 5-0 in Fletcher's last 5 games behind home plate vs. New York. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +100

The Atlanta Braves are very hungry for their first win of the season. After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Mets, I have no doubt the Braves will bounce back with a victory in Game 3 Sunday.

Hot prospect Mike Minor had a great spring for Atlanta, and he's ready to blossom into a dominant starter in this league. The Braves are 4-0 in Minor's four career starts against the Mets, and they'll improve to 5-0 Sunday.

The Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 1-5 in Jon Niese's last 6 starts as a home underdog. Take the Braves Sunday.

15* NL Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +145

After losing their first two games of the season, there's no question the Miami Marlins will be highly motivated for a win Saturday. I believe they get their first "W" at a great price over the Cincinnati Reds.

Mat Latos goes for the Reds, and while he was a quality starter in San Diego last year, he will struggle in a new hitter-friendly park. Latos has struggled against the Marlins, going 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.142 WHIP in three career starts against Miami. Take the Marlins Saturday.

15* AL Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +114

I am banking on the Yankees not to open the season 0-2 after a tough one-run loss to the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday. I believe they have a big advantage with underrated Hiroki Kuroda on the mound.

Kuroda has a huge advantage switching to the American League considering not many teams in this league are familiar with him. The veteran should dominate early in the season before opposing teams pick up on his tendencies.

David Price sports a 4.10 ERA in 12 career starts against New York, so the Yankees are certainly familiar with him. Price gave up 6 runs, 5 earned, in 4 innings in his last start against the Yankees, which was at Tropicana Field.

The Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 94-45 in their last 139 during game 2 of a series. The Rays are 0-5 in Prices last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa is 2-7 in Price's last 9 home starts. Roll with the Yankees Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +2

This line screams take Indiana as a small home favorite after their huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I'm going the other way. Off such a huge win, the Pacers are in for a big letdown tonight against the Boston Celtics. I expect the Celtics to win this one going away.

Indiana is a very tired team now. The Pacers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Thunder last night, so they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back. Plus, this will be Indiana's 8th game in 11 days! Fatigue will be a factor for the Pacers tonight.

Off consecutive losses to two of the best teams in the league in the Spurs and Bulls, and trailing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Celtics will be extremely motivated for a win here. I look for Boston to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.

Indiana is 0-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Take this combined 19-0 system backing Boston straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Golden State Warriors +8

The Golden State Warriors continue to fight despite knowing they are not going to make the playoffs this season. They are trying to play the role of spoiler, and they are giving some of the best teams in the league a run for their money of late. I look for them to give the Utah Jazz all they can handle tonight.

The Warriors are a very profitable 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Warriors have had Utah's number in recent meetings, winning three of the last five by 15, 7 and 18 points. Utah's two victories over Golden State during this stretch came by finals of 88-87 and 99-92 (OT).

Utah is 1-9 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Utah is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as an 8.5-point underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Detroit has been undervalued for months, and that's certainly the case again tonight. Any time Atlanta is this heavy of a favorite, I'm going to look to fade them if it's the right opponent.

Detroit is 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The betting public has not really been willing to back the Pistons, either, which is why they continually show great value. They have won five of their last six overall, with their only loss coming at Chicago during this stretch.

These teams have played in two very heated battles this season. Atlanta won the first meeting 107-101 in overtime on January 27th, but Detroit would have their revenge with an 86-85 win over the Hawks on March 9th. I believe this game will go right down to the wire as well.

The Hawks are 5-18 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Pistons Friday.

15* Giants/Diamondbacks ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arizona -105

The Diamondbacks should be a much heavier favorite in their home opener against the San Francisco Giants. There's no question that Tim Lincecum is still one of the better starters in the game, but he is getting way too much respect here.

Ian Kennedy is getting no love despite a Cy Young-worthy season last year. He was a 20-plus game winner despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. This guy is the real deal, and I like his chances to take down Lincecum.

Kennedy is 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 10 career starts against San Francisco. Lincecum has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against Arizona for a 9.00 ERA. Take the Diamondbacks.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses for just the second time this season. They haven't lost three straight once this year. I expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way with an inspired performance tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana is certainly playing well of late, but their run comes to an abrupt halt tonight. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be their 7th game in 10 days. That doesn't bode well for them considering the Thunder like to push the pace, which will ware down these Indiana players by the fourth quarter.

The Thunder are 55-25-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. As you can see by this trend, this team has unbelievable resiliency and knows how to bounce back. OKC is 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -122

The Houston Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in their opener today against the Colorado Rockies.

Wandy Rodriquez is a decent starter, but he has not fared well against the Rockies. Rodriquez has posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 11 career starts against Colorado.

The Rockies picked up one of the more underrated starters in the league this offseason. Jeremy Guthrie is going to love pitching in the National League, especially against the Astros today.

Guthrie gave up one earned run and four base runners in 8 innings in his lone career start against Houston. He'll guide Colorado to victory in their opener. Bet the Rockies.

20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +7.5

The Chicago Bulls are likely to be without Derrick Rose once again tonight as he nurses a sore groin. He is listed as doubtful tonight, and from his comments, it appears there's almost no way he plays. Even if he does, I still like Boston to cover this inflated number.

Playing without Rose is finally starting to catch up to the Bulls, who have lost two straight for the first time all season. Meanwhile, Boston is finally starting to get healthy as they just got Ray Allen back last night. They gave San Antonio all they could handle, eventually falling 86-87.

Due to getting healthy, the Celtics are in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. Boston is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, winning four road games during this stretch. The Bulls were destroyed by the Thunder 78-92 on Sunday despite outscoring Oklahoma City 27-12 in the 4th quarter. They followed that up with a 93-99 home loss to Houston on Monday.

The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Boston Thursday.

15* Marlins/Reds ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +135

The Miami Marlins simply did not handle the pressure of opening up their new ball park well last night. I look for Miami to feel much more comfortable going on the road into Cincinnati today and to play up to their potential.

Miami will send Mark Buehrle to the mound in this one. The former White Sox Ace will thrive in the National League this season, especially early in the year since these National League hitters have not had a chance to see him.

Buehrle has fared well in his two career starts against Cincinnati, going 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP. Johnny Cueto has not fared well in three career starts against Miami, posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.938 WHIP. Look for the Marlins to tee off on him in this one. Take Miami Thursday.

15* Red Sox/Tigers ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +140

The Tigers are way over-hyped coming into the season. As a result, their lines are going to be inflated early. That's the case tonight as I am seeing excellent value in the Boston Red Sox.

Somehow, the Red Sox are coming in a bit 'under the radar' early due to their collapse in September last year. Few picked this team to win the AL East this season, and I expect to get some very reasonable prices on Boston early because of it.

Jon Lester is fully capable of taking down Justin Verlander today. Lester went 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.257 WHIP last season in what was considered a 'down year' for him. Look for Lester to make a statement in this opener and shut down this new Tigers line-up.

The Tigers are 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.

15* Nets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +8.5

The New Jersey Nets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have all but played themselves out of the Western Conference playoff race over the last few months. I like to the Nets to cover this big number with ease tonight.

New Jersey is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 16-point home win over Indiana, and two road victories over Golden State and Sacramento. Their lone loss was a 4-point setback to the Los Angeles Lakers last night as they nearly pulled off the upset in Staples Center.

Portland hasn't won back-to-back games since late January, having alternated decisions in its last nine contests to put the club in a tough position heading into the final weeks of the season. Ownership really showed that they were not playing for this season, rather rebuilding for next when they decided to trade Gerald Wallace to New Jersey before the trade deadline.

Look for Wallace to have a big game against his former team tonight, and for the Blazers to continue to struggle. The Blazers have just one win by more than 6 points over their last 10 games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are each fighting for their playoff lives right now. Though Phoenix has won 15 of 22, it currently sits 10th in the West. However, the Suns are one-half game behind ninth-place Utah (28-26) and 1 1/2 back of Houston, which owns the eighth and final playoff spot.

I like the way Phoenix has been playing for the last couple months, and I believe they are simply catching too many points tonight against a banged-up Jazz bunch. Utah is without starting SG Raja Bell, and they may also be without starting PG Devin Harris, who is listed as questionable after leaving their last game with an ankle injury.

The main reason I am backing the Suns tonight is because it's simply a match-up nightmare for Utah. Phoenix has absolutely owned this series over the last few seasons, and I don't see that changing here. The Suns have won six straight over Utah, which includes five wins by 9 points or more. They should not be the underdog in this one.

The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 16-34 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 196.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat just played each other less than two weeks ago on March 25th. Oklahoma City won that game 103-87 at home for 190 combined points. With the familiarity of having just played each other, I believe this rematch will easily see less than 196.5 combined points.

These huge National TV games always seem to be lower-scoring. The fact of the matter is that when players get on National TV, they get tight offensively, but their effort is better defensively. I believe that will be the case here, plus their familiarity with one another will make points hard to come by as each team makes the proper adjustments defensively.

Miami is 11-3 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season, and we're seeing an average of 182.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Cardinals/Marlins MLB Season Opener on Miami -171

First and foremost, I will almost never take a team that is -150 or higher this season. That being said, I'm very confident that the Miami Marlins are going to win this game in their new ball park tonight over the St. Louis Cardinals.

When healthy, Josh Johnson is capable of out-pitching any starter in this league. Now healthy, Johnson will get the ball for this opener to give the Marlins a huge edge on the mound. Johnson was 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in nine starts last season before going down with injury.

Kyle Lohse is a notorious slow starter, and I like him to get rocked tonight by this new, improved Marlins line-up that features Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Mike Stanton. Lohse has posted a 5.85 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against the Marlins, while Johnson sports a 3.60 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.

The Marlins are 29-10 in Johnson's last 39 home starts. Miami is 21-7 in Johnson's last 28 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Marlins Wednesday.

15* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +9.5

I have been fading the Los Angeles Lakers quite a bit lately, and with great success. I got recent covers on the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors while going against the Lakers at home. Los Angeles just has a knack for playing to the level of their competition, and they rarely blow out teams that they are supposed to.

New Jersey is playing very well of late, and they'll be chomping at the bit to face the Lakers in Staples Center tonight. That's a big reason why the Lakers struggle against the spread at home is because they always get the opposing team's best shot. The Nets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Indiana 100-84 at home before going on the road to knock off the Warriors and Kings.

The Lakers are in a huge look-ahead spot tonight. They lead the Pacific Division by just one game over the Los Angeles Clippers, which would mean they'd be the No. 3 seed if the season were to end today. Guess who the Lakers play tomorrow night? The Clippers, which is a team they will be much more interested in facing than the Nets.

Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. L.A. is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These five trends make for a 38-2 (95%) system backing New Jersey. Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7

This is a huge letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis caught Oklahoma City playing the second of a back-to-back last night and took advantage, beating the Thunder 94-88 on the road. After such a huge win over the No. 1 seed in the West, and playing the second of a back-to-back, there is a very good chance the Grizzlies come out flat tonight.

Another reason I believe they will come out flat is because this is a look-ahead game as well. Memphis will be playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tomorrow night, which is a game they will be much more interested in than this one with the Warriors tonight.

While the Warriors have lost five straight, four of those losses came by 8 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. Golden State has lost their first three meetings of the season with the Grizzlies, though two of those losses came by a single point each. That makes the Warriors the more motivated team tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep.

Golden State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point underdog to the Toronto Raptors. This is a battle between two teams that aren't going to make the playoffs, and as a result it's going to be hard for Toronto to be motivated enough to win this game by double-digits.

While Charlotte continues to lose, they have at least been more competitive of late to show that they have not completely packed it in. The Bobcats have lost three of their last four games by 7 points or less, and they just took Detroit to overtime on the road last time out. The Bobcats have had two days' rest since that loss to the Pistons.

Toronto should not be laying 9 points to any team in this league. While they have been better than the Bobcats this season, the Raptors still aren't that good at 18-35. Plus, the Bobcats have their number, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings dating back to 2010.

The Raptors are 4-17 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite since 1996. Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I like the Kentucky Wildcats to roll tonight over the Kansas Jayhawks. Kentucky has been the best team in the country all year, and they'll cap it off with a win and cover tonight to give head coach John Calipari his first championship.

Kansas is very fortunate to be here having won three times by 3 points or less in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kentucky has stormed through the field with five victories all by 8 points or more, and four by 12 points or more.

These teams faced each other back on November 15th earlier this season on a neutral court. Kentucky won that game 75-65 despite going just 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the free throw line and committing a whopping 19 turnovers. They had a sub-par performance and still won by 10 points.

Kansas is 6-15 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 18-36 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Bet Kentucky Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Bulls UNDER 186

The Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two tired teams as both will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. With both teams playing on tired legs, the pace will be much slower than usual.

Both teams are without their best offensive players. The Bulls are without leading scorer Derrick Rose (22.8 points), while the Rockets are without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 points) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 points).

The Rockets combined for 171 points against Dallas, 187 points against Memphis, and 186 points at the end of regulation against Indiana in their last three games, respectively. The Bulls combined for 175 points against Atlanta, 154 points against Detroit, and 170 points against Oklahoma City in their last three games, respectively.

Houston is 53-24 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Bulls are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall. The Rockets are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10.5

The Golden State Warriors are showing great value as a double-digit underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. I almost always go against the Lakers when they're favored by double-digits, and that's certainly the case today.

Los Angeles had a bad habit of playing to their competition. They can beat the best teams in the league, but they can also lose to the worst. That was evident earlier this season as they lost to the Pistons and Wizards on back-to-back nights.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Warriors Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored for a reason here against the Kansas Jayhawks. While these are two No. 2 seeds battling it out for a spot in the National Championship, I have no doubt that the Buckeyes are the superior team. That will show on the floor Saturday night.

Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule to get here, and they've been more impressive in doing so. They beat Loyola-MD (78-59), underrated Gonzaga (73-66), red hot Cincinnati (81-66) and top-seeded Syracuse (77-70) to reach this point. The Buckeyes got here in pretty convincing fashion to say the least.

For starters, Kansas essentially played home games in their first four contests. They played their first two in Omaha, Nebraska, beating Detroit 65-50 before squeaking by Purdue 63-60. They played their next two games in St. Louis, Missouri, topping NC State 60-57 before using a 12-0 run over the final few minutes to beat North Carolina 80-67. Oh yeah, the Tar Heels were playing without the nation's leader in assists in Kendall Marshall.

Ohio State matches up with Kansas very well. They have the best on-ball defender in the country in Aaron Craft (8.8 points, 4.7 assists, 2.5 steals) to slow down KU's Tyshawn Taylor, who is 0-for-17 from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Jared Sullinger (17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks) against Thomas Robinson (17.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks) is essentially a wash, though I would take Sullinger myself.

Kansas did beat Ohio State at home 78-67 in their lone meeting this season, but Sullinger sat out that game with back spasms. Having Sullinger this time around is going to make all the difference. Robinson scored 21 points in that game only because Sullinger was not on the floor to help defend him.

Plus, KU does not have an answer for Deshaun Thomas (16.1 points) and William Buford (14.4 points). Buford put up 21 points in their first meeting, and Thomas added 19 points. These two mismatches that are hugely in Ohio State's favor are likely going to be the difference in why the Buckeyes move on.

The Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been rolling ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Getting them as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight over Memphis is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll take advantage.

The Bucks are 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 121-84 blowout win at Cleveland, which allowed them to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. That will be to their benefit tonight against a Memphis team that took Houston down to the wire last night, but eventually lost 89-98.

The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. I'll take these two 100% systems backing the Bucks straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Milwaukee Saturday.

20* Louisville/Kentucky Final Four No-Brainer on Louisville +9

The Louisville Cardinals are simply catching too many points against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four Saturday. While John Calipari is the better recruiter with more talent on the floor, he's not the better coach. I'll back Rick Pitino with this much time to prepare almost every single time.

Pitino and the Cardinals actually have an extra day to get ready for Kentucky. Louisville played last Saturday, while Kentucky played on Sunday. I have no doubt that Pitino will use his time to prepare to come up with a better game plan than Calipari will.

Louisville has been on an absolute tear since finally getting healthy. They won four games in four days to win the Big East Tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams along the way. They then won four straight games in the big dance to get here, including a 57-44 victory over top-seeded Michigan State.

These teams played once already this season back on December 31st. Louisville came in as a 10-point underdog at Kentucky, yet only lost 62-69 while covering that huge number. That was back when the Cardinals weren't healthy, with guys playing through injury, while missing other players. Now healthy, and on a neutral court this time around, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to pull off this upset.

In that game back on December 31st, the Cardinals used their press to near perfection. Louisville limited Kentucky to 17-of-57 shooting (29.8 percent) for the game, including 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from 3-point range. The Cardinals only shot 20-of-62 (32.3 percent) themselves, but this game was won at the free throw line. Louisville simply fouled too much, and Kentucky took advantage by making a whopping 32-of-43 from the free throw line. That allowed the Wildcats to overcome their 20 turnovers.

Look for the Cardinals to be smarter about the fouls this time around, while continuing to keep the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.

25* Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Jazz UNDER 214

Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set tonight. I fully expect the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz to combine to finish in the 195-205 point range in this one. This total has been inflated, making it my strongest over/under play in the Western Conference this season.

Season averages alone show that this number has been set too high. Sacramento is scoring 98.3 points/game and giving up 103.8 points/game this season for an average combined score of 202.1 points/game. Utah is scoring 98.8 points/game and giving up 98.7 points/game for an average combined score of 197.5 points/game.

Looking at home/away numbers, and this total has been set even further off the mark. Sacramento is scoring 94.7 points/game and giving up 104.6 points/game on the road for an average combined score of 199.3 points/game. Utah is scoring 101.0 points/game and yielding 94.4 points/game at home for an average combined score of 195.4 points/game.

The Jazz and Kings have combined to score 211 or less points in 11 straight meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set. In their three meetings this season alone, the Jazz and Kings have combined for 189, 199 and 205 points, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -11.5

The Chicago Bulls have not missed a beat with Derrick Rose out of the line-up. The Bulls, who again expect to be without Rose, look to win their 14th straight over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night at the United Center. Chicago (41-11) is second in the NBA in scoring defense at 88.9 points per game, which is a big reason why they are 13-5 without Rose this season.

Detroit (18-32) is one of the league's lowest-scoring teams at 89.9 per game. In their most recent meeting Jan. 9, Chicago limited the Pistons to 39.4 percent shooting in a 92-68 home win. The Bulls also won at Detroit 99-83 five days earlier and have taken 13 straight in the series since Dec. 23, 2008.

Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they could be without starting guard Rodney Stuckey and backup Ben Gordon due to injuries. Stuckey, who hurt his left hamstring Wednesday, averages a team-best 16.1 points while Gordon averages 12.3. Stuckey is really the only reason this team has remained somewhat competitive, and without him they have no chance of keeping this one close.

Detroit has lost 11 straight in Chicago, with the last four defeats coming by an average of 20.0 points. The Pistons are only averaging 79.5 points/game in their last four contests, which doesn't bode well for them against the league's second-best defense. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Chicago Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5

While the Washington Wizards are among the league's worst teams again this season, this squad continues to fight. They only have 11 wins on the season, but the Wizards have been a much more competitive team since trading for Nene.

It hasn't shown in the win column as the Wizards are 0-5 in their last five games, but four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. Plus, four of those losses were against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They get another playoff team tonight in Philadelphia, and I fully expect Washington to give the 76ers a run for their money.

Philly is just 10-12 SU & 10-12 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to win by 9 points or more is simply asking too much tonight. Washington is 67-38 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been in the media a lot lately due to some recent benchings of their star players. Kobe Bryant was benched in their 96-102 home loss to Memphis Sunday, but he responded well by going off for 30 points in a 104-101 victory at Golden State Tuesday. Bryant hit two clutch jumpers over the final 1:04 to give his team the win.

Andrew Bynum was benched for an ill-advised 3-pointer he shot near the end of the 3rd quarter in that win over the Warriors. He sat out the final nine minutes of the game, and didn't handle the benching will in the media. After Kobe led by example and responded with a great game against Golden State, I believe Bynum will follow in his footsteps and have a monster night against the Thunder to lead the Lakers to victory.

This is a huge game for L.A. to prove to Oklahoma City that they aren't going anywhere, and that they are still the team to beat in the West. Kobe and the Lakers certainly respond well in these "big" games. They just beat Miami earlier this month 93-83, and they are 3-0 against Dallas this season, the team that swept them in the playoffs last year. Look for L.A. to revenge their 100-85 road loss at Oklahoma City just before the All-Star Break.

The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Lakers Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on Dallas +8

Miami already had its "revenge game" against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, who beat the Heat in the NBA Finals last year. The Heat would get their payback with a 105-94 road victory in Dallas on Christmas Day. While Miami certainly wants to beat Dallas again, they won't be as motivated as they were when they played on Christmas.

This line is simply inflated, and I don't see any way the Heat win this game by more than 8 points with the way they've been playing of late. Through March 1st, Miami was the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 103.8 points per game. Since then, the Heat are just 25th in the league at 93.1 points per game. Every team behind them is out of the playoff picture.

Miami is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Oklahoma City and Indiana by a combined 31 points. They just aren't playing well right now, and making matters worse is the fact that Lebron James just suffered a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. It happened against the Pacers, and it clearly affected him as he caught almost every pass with his right hand.

Dallas really, really needs this win tonight. The Mavericks are just two games ahead of ninth-place Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. That means they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don't get their act together quick. Dallas has done a good job of that with back-to-back wins over Houston, and they now come into this game well-rested having played just two games over the last five days.

The Mavericks are a sensational 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last four trends make for a perfect 34-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Wizards/Pacers NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Washington +10.5

The Washington Wizards are showing great value tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. The biggest reason I'm on Washington is due to the status of the Pacers, who have to be extremely tired right now. Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 6th game in 8 days.

The Pacers started to show signs of fatigue last night when they just didn't have it in an 84-100 loss at lowly New Jersey. They committed 18 turnovers, and gave up 100-plus points for the third time in four games. Indiana has given up 100 or more just 12 times, but seven of those came in its last 13 contests. The Pacers are 2-10 when surrendering triple digits.

While Washington is 0-4 since trading for Nene, there's no denying that they have been playing much better basketball. Three of those losses came by three points or fewer, and the Wizards are going to be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's nice to see that this team is still fighting, which is what I expect them to continue doing here.

This play falls into a system that is 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (INDIANA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Pacers are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Clippers UNDER 194.5

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers have played in two low-scoring games already this month. Phoenix beat L.A. 81-78 for 159 combined points on March 2nd, and the Suns were victorious again by a final of 91-87 for 178 combined points on March 15th. I look for a similar low-scoring output tonight as these teams come nowhere near combining for 194.5.

Phoenix is a very tired team right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to run the floor like they usually would.

The Clippers have been having a tough time putting up points since losing Chauncey Billups. L.A. has scored 97 or less points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, but they have defended well. The Clippers have given up 97 or less points in nine of those 11 contests as well. They'll control the tempo at home tonight, which will be a much slower pace than Phoenix is used to.

The UNDER is 23-10 in Suns last 33 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a 3.5-point favorite tonight over the Utah Jazz. Utah is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their impressive play of late. But now is the time to fade Utah as the value is clearly no longer with them.

Utah has won seven of their last eight, but this is a tired team right now. The Jazz will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and one of those contests included a four-overtime game against Atlanta. I like the way the Celtics are playing of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. What's most impressive is that four of those five games were on the road.

The Jazz are just 8-17 on the road this season, while the Celtics are 17-8 at home. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing Boston. Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Orlando -2

The Orlando Magic are showing great value as just a 2-point favorite against the short-handed New York Knicks tonight. Orlando is well-rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They come in the fresher team, and the healthier squad as well.

The Knicks will be playing without Amar'e Stoudemire (back), Jeremy Lin (knee), Jared Jeffries (knee), and Bill Walker (elbow). Not to mention, Carmelo Anthony is banged up with a groin injury. He's expected to play tonight, but won't be at full strength.

The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Magic are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three by 10 points or more. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 193.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks in Western Conference action. The last two meetings in this series went to overtime, but both were defensive battles.

On 4/11/11, these teams were tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points. In their lone meeting this season on 3/24/12 just three nights ago, these teams were tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points. I don't see this game finishing anywhere near the 193.5-point total.

Houston is a tired team as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Each of their last two games went to overtime, so this squad is running on fumes. Plus, the Rockets are already short-handed without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG) due to injury.

Dallas and their opponents are combining to average 188.3 points/game this season. The Mavs have become more a defensive-minded team since the playoffs last year. They give up just 92.3 points/game at home on 42.5 percent shooting.

The Mavs are 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Milwaukee had won six straight before losing three of their last four to playoff teams in Boston, Indiana and New York. If the Bucks want to be a playoff team, they know they cannot afford to lose many more games down the stretch as they trail the Knicks by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.

I believe the Bucks get back on track tonight and buckle down at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I certainly like the way this team is playing with the addition of Monte Ellis. They now have numerous guards that can penetrate the lane and either score themselves, or find open teammates. Milwaukee has been scoring at will, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 11.

Atlanta has won four straight coming in. With a game against the East-leading Chicago Bulls lined up for tomorrow, this is a huge letdown spot for the Hawks. They are feeling good about their four-overtime victory over Utah a couple nights ago, which was the first 4 OT game since 1997. Off such a historical accomplishment, it'd be easy to see Atlanta come out flat here. Plus, the Bucks want revenge from two 5-point losses to the Hawks this season, so they'll be the more motivated team.

Atlanta is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 120 points or more. The Hawks are 14-28 ATS in their last 42 following 2 or more consecutive wins. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* NIT Final Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts +2.5

The Massachusetts Minutemen have been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point. I don't think there's any way they should be an underdog to the Stanford Cardinal in this one. UMass is going to have a solid home-court advantage, though they haven't needed it to get here.

UMass has pulled off three straight upsets on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. The Minutemen won 101-96 at Mississippi State as a 7-point dog, 77-67 at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point dog, and 72-70 at Drexel as a 7.5-point dog. They had to come back from a huge deficit against Drexel, and that comeback win has this team believing they won't be denied.

Stanford has had a much easier path to get here. The Cardinals have won three straight home games against Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada. I don't believe one of those teams is as good as any of the three teams that UMass has faced.They even needed overtime to beat Illinois State. Stanford is 17-3 at home this season, but just 5-6 on the road. The Cardinal won't be playing with nearly as much confidence knowing that they'll essentially be the road team in this one.

The Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. UMass is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Massachusetts Tuesday.

15* Pitt/WSU CBI Tournament Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +1

Both the Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington State Cougars have played very well to reach the CBI Tournament Championship Series. Both have won three games in a row to get here, but I have been more impressed with Washington State's path. Game 1 of this Best of 3 series will be played on the Cougars' home floor tonight.

Washington State has had to go on the road to pick up two very impressive wins as underdogs to get here. The Cougars opened with an 89-75 victory at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog. They would beat Wyoming 61-41 at home as a 2-point favorite before going on the road and knocking off Oregon State 72-55 as a 6.5-point underdog. As you can see, they have won each game by 14-plus points.

Pittsburgh opened with two very easy opponents at home with a 81-63 victory over Wofford followed by a 82-61 triumph over Princeton. They did beat Butler 68-62 on the road in their last game, but the Bulldogs are way down this season as it has been a rebuilding year for them. I believe Pittsburgh meets its match tonight in Washington State.

The Cougars are 11-4 at home, while the Panthers are just 4-8 in true road games this year. Washington State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by an average of 14.4 points/game. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Roll with Washington State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 209.5

Oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight between the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets. This will be just the second meeting between these Western Conference foes. The first resulted in a 103-89 home victory for Houston and 192 combined points, and I expect a similar scoring output here tonight.

Houston is without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG). That's a lot of production to be missing. Houston and their opponents have combined for 207 or less points in six of their last seven games. They have topped the 200-point mark just twice during this stretch.

The Rockets are 10-2 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Houston is 18-6 to the UNDER in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1996. Sacramento is 63-36 to the UNDER off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks +6

The Milwaukee Bucks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are simply catching too many points tonight against the overrated New York Knicks. The Bucks are in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Knicks for the eighth and final playoff spot. They certainly want this game more than most.

Milwaukee has won seven of their last nine games overall. Better yet, the Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. Since trading for Monte Ellis, this has been a completely different team. The Bucks are scoring at will now, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

New York is playing well of late too, winning six of their last seven. However, this team has played a very easy schedule during this stretch, and they have not fared well recently against the Bucks. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU & a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New York.

The Knicks are 1-10 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the fact that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks, and we have a combined 26-1 (96%) system backing Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +7

I'm always looking to fade the Los Angeles Lakers when they're getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. While this team has been great at home this year, they should not be favored by seven points over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is 25-6 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. This is a deep team that handles these situations very well. The Lakers are 16-31 ATS in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Kansas/UNC Elite Eight No-Brainer on North Carolina +2

The UNC Tar Heels get the nod Sunday as an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks. Even without Kendall Marshall, I believe the Tar Heels are the better team here and it will show on the court today.

Kansas' biggest strength is their inside game with Thomas Robinson. UNC has a better post game than Kansas with the likes of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. These two are an unstoppable force inside.

The Jayhawks are now 2-11 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Kansas is 4-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. Kansas is 2-10 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take UNC Sunday.

20* Baylor/Kentucky Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor +8

The Baylor Bears are showing great value here Sunday. This is actually a great match-up for them. Baylor is usually the most athletic team when they take the court. Kentucky is the only team in the country that rivals Baylor's athleticism.

Look for the Bears to give the Wildcats all they can handle here. They have been one of the best teams in the tournament with wins over South Dakota State, Colorado and Xavier. I fully expect them to stay within eight points of the Wildcats in this one.

The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Kentucky is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Bet Baylor Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +13

The Chicago Bulls are getting way too much love tonight. Toronto wants this game more, and as a result they'll easily stay within this 13-point spread, likely winning outright.

These teams just played three days ago on March 21st with the Bulls winning 94-82 despite the Raptors leading almost the entire way. Toronto blew it late, and now they want revenge. Chicago will be playing with Derrick Rose once again, and they cannot possibly cover this inflated number.

The Raptors are a very profitable 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Raptors Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Syracuse Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -2.5

Ohio State is a match-up nightmare for Syracuse. With Fab Melo suspended for the entire NCAA Tournament, the Orange have nobody who can guard Jared Sullinger. He's in line for a monster games as the Buckeyes march on to the Final Four.

Syracuse is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The loss of Fab Melo hasn't hurt them yet in the tournament, but they're finally against a team where his loss will be felt.

The Orange are 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Louisville/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Louisville +1.5

The Louisville Cardinals should not be an underdog to the seventh-seeded Cardinals. Louisville is showing excellent value here Saturday in a game I believe they'll win outright. Florida has had a nice run, but they run into a buzz saw this afternoon.

Few teams in the country are playing as well as Louisville. This team was beat up all season with injuries, but they finally got healthy towards the end of the year and started to play up to their potential. As a result, they won the Big East Tournament and have won seven straight coming in.

Louisville is 7-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.

20* NC State/Kansas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on NC State +8

The NC State Wolfpack are one of the most underrated teams left in the field. They have been playing for their NCAA Tournament lives since a 77-73 victory over Miami back on February 29th. This team won their final two games of the regular season, then won two games in the ACC Tournament to solidify their spot in the big dance.

What impressed me more than anything was NC State's 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals. That loss showed that the Wolfpack could play with anyone. After beating San Diego State and Georgetown in the first two rounds of the big dance, they are now 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

Kansas needed some fortunate breaks down the stretch of their last game just to make it to the Sweet 16. Despite coming in as an 8-point underdog, Purdue gave the Jayhawks all they could handle. Kansas eventually prevailed 63-60. That close win, coupled with a 72-81 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, shows their vulnerability. Asking the Jayhawks to cover 8 points is simply asking too much here.

NC State is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. NC State is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. These five trends make for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Bet NC State Friday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +9

Any time the Los Angeles Lakers are this big of a favorite, I look to fade them. I did so with success just a few games back. They were an 11-point home favorite against Utah, but lost 99-103 less than a week ago on March 18th.

This is a team that I follow closely. I know that the Lakers always seem to play to their competition. They can look great against the best teams in the league, but they can also look terrible against some of the worst teams in the game. Recent examples of that are upset losses to Detroit and Washington in consecutive nights. They also lost to Utah and Houston in back-to-back games as favorites.

Portland has been going through a tough stretch of late, which has them undervalued right now. I still believe this team has better talent than over half of the teams in the league, and it's only a matter of time before they figure it out. Portland took a step in the right direction last night with a 97-93 home victory over Memphis. They'll be motivated to see if they can beat the Lakers here tonight.

The Lakers are 6-15 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Portland is 20-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Bet Portland Friday.

15* Ohio/UNC Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Ohio +10.5

The Ohio Bobcats have been the biggest surprise in the tournament thus far. It shouldn't come as too big of a surprise though considering how well this team played early in the year. Ohio opened 12-1 with their only loss coming at then-No. 7 Louisville by a final of 54-59. While they are a No. 13 seed, this team is playing more like one of the top seeds in the tournament.

Ohio features two stud guards in D.J. Cooper (14.9 points, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals) and Walter Offutt (12.0 points, 1.6 steals) who can carry this team. Cooper has scored 40 points and Offutt has put up 32 in two NCAA Tournament games. The Bobcats will actually have the advantage at the guard positions in this game due to the health of UNC point guard Kendall Marshall.

Marshall, the nation's leading assist man, suffered a fractured wrist in UNC's victory over Creighton last round. While it's possible he may play, it is very unlikely. Even if he does go, Marshall will not be at 100% and will likely be hurting his team by being out there.

Freshman Stilman White (4.3 minutes per game) and senior Justin Watts (only two stints at point guard this season) would be first in line to replace Marshall as UNC

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7.5

There is no team that I have been riding more lately than the Cincinnati Bearcats. Somehow, some way this team continues to go under the radar. The Bearcats have been a determined, focused bunch ever since their ugly brawl with Xavier back in December. They are the sleeper of the 16 teams left in the big dance.

Cincinnati got their momentum for the NCAA Tournament by making it all the way to the Big East Championship, knocking off the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse along the way. They carried that momentum over into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Texas and Florida State in their first two games.

What I really like about this team is the way that they are set up. They have exactly what it takes to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats have three stud guards in Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals), Dion Dixon (13.1 points, 1.6 steals), and Cashmere Wright (10.7 points, 4.6 assists, 2.1 steals).

I have no doubt in my mind that the Bearcats have the better guards in this match-up with Ohio State. What also makes this a great match-up for Cincinnati is the fact that they have a center who can contain Jared Sullinger of the Buckeyes. Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds) has been playing at a very high level for weeks, and he'll hold his own against Sullinger.

The Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Buckeyes are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Roll with Cincinnati Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 201

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set tonight. Any time you have the Boston Celtics in a game and the total is over 200 points, you should automatically think take the UNDER. That's precisely what I'm doing here in a game that I believe will be played in the 180's.

The reason this total is set so high is because Milwaukee has been scoring at will of late against some of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Bucks have scored over 100 points in seven straight games against the likes of the Blazers, Warriors, Cavaliers, Nets, Raptors, Knicks and Bulls. Only one of those teams plays defense at an above-average level, and that is the Bulls.

Boston will be determined to put an end to that 100 points streak as they are one of the few teams in the league that takes pride in their defense. The Celtics give up just 90.6 points/game and 42.6 percent shooting this year. Boston is also having trouble offensively, especially away from home where they are scoring a mere 89.4 points/game. Boston games are averaging a combined 181.7 points/game this season, nearly 20 points below this posted total.

In their last 12 meetings dating back to 2008, Boston and Milwaukee have combined to score 201 or less points at the end of regulation all 12 times. That's an 11-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -4

The Syracuse Orange should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Wisconsin Badgers. This team has been undervalued ever since it was stated that Fab Melo would be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. They showed against Kansas State in the Round of 32 that they could be just as dominant as they have been all season.

The Orange throttled the Wildcats 75-59, making 51.1 percent of their shots while limiting K-State to just 31.3 percent shooting. Syracuse (33-2) certainly doesn't get the respect that every other No. 1 seed gets. That's evident by the fact that all the other No. 1 seeds are at least a 7-point favorite in this round.

There's a reason why Bo Ryan and his Wisconsin Badgers rarely ever make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. That's because they have to win ugly to win at all. That style rarely works against top-notch teams like Syracuse, who can push the pace and control the tempo with their athleticism. The Orange are scoring 10.5 more points/game than Wisconsin, and their athleticism will overwhelm the Badgers in this one.

Syracuse is 26-9 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Orange are 28-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. Syracuse is 41-16 ATS in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. Bet the Orange Thursday.

20* Nevada/Stanford NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +7

The Nevada Wolf Pack are showing great value tonight as a 7-point underdog to the Stanford Cardinal. This team has not been getting much respect all season despite their 28-6 record. I believe they have a great chance of winning this game outright, let alone covering seven points.

Nevada was definitely a sleeper coming into the season as they returned five starters from last year. This experienced bunch would love nothing more than a trip to Madison Square Garden to play in the NIT semifinals, which is what's at stake tonight.

Nevada has looked like a team on a mission in their first two NIT games. They won at Oral Robers 68-59 as a 6.5-point underdog, then took care of a very good Bucknell team 75-67 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. They now face a Stanford team that was shaky last round in their 92-88 home victory over Illinois State as a 8.5-point favorite.

Nevada is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Wolf Pack are actually outscoring their opposition 73.9 to 67.8 in this spot. Nevada is 9-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games where opponent grabbed 31 or less rebounds since 1997. Stanford is in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 3 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Wolf Pack. Bet Nevada Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be this big of an underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight in a game I believe they can win outright. Cleveland will be the more motivated team due to events leading up to this game. Atlanta is in a huge letdown spot tonight.

Atlanta has won six straight over Cleveland, including a 103-87 victory on March 18th just three nights ago. With a rematch occurring in such a short amount of time, I have no doubt that the Cavaliers are going to be hungry for payback. Look for Atlanta to be 'disinterested' when they take the floor after winning six in a row over Cleveland.

This play falls into a system that is 22-6 (78.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points.

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* Knicks/76ers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers play in a crucial Atlantic Division showdown tonight. New York trails Philly by four games, and I expect both teams to be laying it all on the line tonight. In my opinion, that will lead to a defensive battle as points will be hard to come by.

The Knicks have won four straight games to get within striking distance of the 76ers. They've done so with tremendous defense, holding their last four opponents to an average of just 88.5 points/game. Interim head coach Mike Woodson has put an emphasis on playing better defense, and his players have certainly responded.

Philadelphia is one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. They limit opponents to just 87.7 points/game overall, including 84.2 points/game at home. Considering Philly only averages 93.7 points/game at home, they are combining with their opponents to average 177.9 points/game in all home games. That's a far cry from the 192.5-point total set tonight.

The 76ers are 23-8 to the UNDER in their last 31 home games, and the Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER in their last 28 road games. Phillly is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Knicks last 26 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 20-6 in 76ers last 26 games as a home favorite. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the Milwaukee Bucks. A big reason this line is so small is because of Portland's recent struggles. Another reason is that Milwaukee added Monte Ellis recently. The value is to the point where pulling the trigger on Portland is the only move tonight.

The Blazers have already started playing better since firing head coach Nate McMillan and replacing him with interim coach Kaleb Canales. They went on the road and beat the Chicago Bulls 100-89 before going on the road to lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder. After facing two of the league's best teams, the Bucks will seem like a cake walk tonight.

Milwaukee is playing very well recently, winners of five straight. That's why oddsmakers are giving the Bucks so much respect tonight. However, all five of those wins came against teams with losing records. They beat New York, Toronto, New Jersey, Cleveland and Golden State during this stretch. I'm not buying that this is a lot better team just because they added Ellis.

The Bucks have dropped eight of nine to the Blazers, including five straight on the road by 12.6 points per contest. Milwaukee is 1-13 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 vs. Western Conference foes. Milwaukee is 43-70 ATS in their last 113 after 3 or more consecutive wins. The Blazers are 16-7 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take Portland Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Massachusetts +6.5

UMass is showing great value tonight as a 6.5-point underdog to Drexel in the NIT. This team has saved their best basketball for this tournament, and I would not be surprised one bit to see them pull off yet another upset Tuesday.

The Minutemen were one of the NCAA Tournament snubs this season as they came from one of the most underrated conferences in the country in the Atlantic 10. They currently sit at 24-11 on the season after winning at Mississippi State 101-96 as a 7-point underdog and at Seton Hall 77-67 as a 6.5-point underdog in the first two rounds.

Drexel has an amazing record at 29-6, but the fact of the matter is that they played in one of the worst conferences in the country in the Colonial Athletic. They barely beat Northern Iowa 65-63 at home as a 7-point favorite in their last game to advance to this point. The Dragons are not as good as their record would indicate.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. When doing so, I find that UMass and Drexel have played three of the same teams this season. UMass went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 11.0 points/game. Drexel went 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 10.8 points/game. One of those teams was Towson (1-31), who Drexel got to play twice an outscored them by an average of 20.5 points/game.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. CAA foes. UMass is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Minutemen are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after a close win by 3 points or less. Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* Wyoming/Washington St. CBI Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -2.5

The Washington State Cougars are showing great value today as a small home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. I like their chances in this CBI Tournament against a Wyoming team that comes from a weak Mountain West Conference.

Wyoming somewhat showed that they didn't want to be here in this CBI Tournament as they barely beat North Dakota State 78-75 despite being a 9.5-point favorite. It was one of their most sloppy games of the season as they committed 17 turnovers and only forced 9.

Meanwhile, Washington State put together one of their most impressive wins of the season in the opening round. The Cougars won 89-75 at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog to show that they want to be playing in this tournament.

Washington State is a very solid 10-4 at home this season, while Wyoming is just 5-8 in true road games. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12 foes. Wyoming is 9-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more since 1997. Bet Washington State Monday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Bobcats +9

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing some of their best value of the season Monday as a 9-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers. The betting public refuses to back this team with any regularity because they own the league's worst record. Now is the time to ride Charlotte.

The Bobcats have finally gotten healthy, which means they are a much better team than they were in the first half. Charlotte has quietly gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have covered two in a row with impressive showings at Dallas (96-101 loss) and versus Toronto (107-103 victory).

Philly is not playing well right now as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They did play some tough games during this stretch, but they were not even really competitive. The 76ers lost at Indiana 94-111, versus Miami 78-84, and at Chicago 80-89. After playing three of the best teams in the East, the 76ers are going to have a hard time getting up for Charlotte mentally.

The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the 76ers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 in this series. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

20* Cincinnati/FSU CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati +3

I have been riding the Cincinnati Bearcats for a while now as they continue to go under the radar. They are undervalued once again Sunday against a Florida State team that should not be favored.

Cincinnati is rolling, winners of five of their last six. They made the championship game of the Big East Tournament before losing to Louisville. This team has everything you need to make a run in the tournament. They have three stud guards and a beast of a center in Yancy Gates.

The Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. FSU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as a favorite. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11

I always look to fade the Los Angeles Lakers whenever they are favored by double-digits. They are notorious for playing down to their competition, which means it is very tough for them to blow out teams that they are supposed to.

Utah has been playing well lately as they have won three of their last four games, including back-to-back wins over the Timberwolves and Warriors. The Lakers have only beaten the Jazz by more than 11 points once in their last five meetings.

The Lakers are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The Jazz are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. L.A. is 17-42 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with the Jazz Sunday.

15* NC State/Georgetown Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolfpack have saved their best basketball for last. This is a scary team and one that could definitely make a deep run. I don't believe Georgetown should be favored in a game that I see the Wolfpack winning outright.

NC State has won five of their last six games. They knocked off Boston College and Virginia in the ACC Tournament, two games they really had to have to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance. Even more impressive is their 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the semifinals, proving they can play with anyone.

NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. Take NC State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -1

New Mexico is a joke. They had a nice season, but they are getting way too much respect in the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are on of the most underrated teams in the big dance. It will show on the floor Saturday.

Louisville has won five straight games. They won four in four days to win the Big East Tournament, then took care of an underrated Davidson team 69-62 in their first game of the big dance. Now they get New Mexico, and they'll be ready to advance against a team that has been overrated all year.

Louisville is 9-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Louisville is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Louisville.

15* Warriors/Jazz NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

The Golden State Warriors are one of the most underrate teams I've ever seen. They are playing their best basketball of the season, yet they still get no respect. They should not be a 7-point underdog to the Utah Jazz today.

These two teams have played twice this season. Utah won in Golden State by a single point, but the Warriors would have their revenge with an 18-point victory at Utah. The third meeting between these teams will come down to the wire, and I'll take the dog every time.

The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Warriors Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +11

I've been on Iowa State all season. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. They got screwed on getting a No. 8 seed to say the least. ISU finished 3rd in the Big 12 during the regular season. The Big 12 was named the second-best conference in the country. ISU has been using all this as motivation all along.

I would not be surprised to see ISU beat Kentucky, but I'll take the points for some insurance. ISU is as talented as the Wildcats, who have been overrated for weeks. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Kentucky is 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS on Saturday games this season. Kentucky is 4-16 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5

Any time the Lakers are this heavy of a favorite, I usually look to fade. They always play down to their competition. Minnesota wants revenge from two losses against the Lakers in this head-to-head series to start the season.

The Lakers will be disinterested after already beating the Timberwolves twice. Minnesota will be the more motivated team, which makes them a great play tonight.

Minnesota is 24-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 14-27 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Detroit/Kansas Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +14.5

I've seen the Detroit Titans play a few times this year, and they certainly pass the eye test. While Kansas is a quality team, this isn't as talented of a Jayhawks' team as we've seen in the past. Detroit will give Kansas a run for their money tonight.

The Titans were unbeatable down the stretch, winning five straight and 10 of their last 11 coming in. They capped their season off with an emphatic 70-50 victory over Valparaiso in the Horizon League Championship. After watching that game, I believe the Titans can play with anyone.

Detroit is a very balanced team with five players averaging in double figures scoring. They are also one of the most athletic teams in the country, and you'll see them playing above the rim against the Jayhawks. The Titans are led by coach's son Ray McCallum, a sophomore point guard who leads the team in points (15.6), assists (3.9) and steals (1.5). He is their leader despite being just a sophomore.

After seeing Detroit's athleticism, oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, which isn't good news for Kansas. The Jayhawks are just 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take Detroit Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -2

The NC State Wolfpack are a dangerous team entering the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Despite being a No. 11 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in the Sweet 16. They have saved their best basketball for last, and I have them knocking off San Diego State Friday.

This spread tells it all. NC State is the 11-seed while SDSU is the 6-seed, yet the Wolfpack are actually favored. They are favored here for a good reason as they are simply the better team. SDSU had a good season, but they didn't play near the competition that NC State did.

NC State was playing in elimination games ever since a 77-73 win over Miami on February 29th. This team needed to keep winning to make the NCAA Tournament, and that's exactly what they did. The Wolfpack would win four straight over Miami, VA Tech, Boston College and Virginia before a 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals. That defeat showed they could play with anyone.

The Wolfpack are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. NC State is 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. These five trends make for a 23-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Roll with NC State Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -2

The Cincinnati Bearcats represent my favorite play for the Round of 64 games. This is a team that I believe is coming into the NCAA Tournament way under the radar, and I would not be surprised to see them make a deep run.

The Bearcats got into an ugly Brawl with Xavier on December 10th, and they have been a completely different team ever since. Cincinnati went on to win seven straight and 10 of their next 11 after that incident.

Cincinnati showed very well in the Big East tournament, beating both Georgetown and Syracuse before losing to Louisville in the championship game. All three of those teams have a 4 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati can play with anyone as they have three stud guards, and a playmaker at center in Yancy Gates.

Texas was lucky to even get into the NCAA Tournament with a 20-13 record. I actually believe they don't belong. The Longhorns are a very inexperienced team as they returned zero starters from last season. They are too reliant upon freshman, and as a result it's going to be one and done for them.

The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall. These three trends make for a 16-2 (89%) system backing the Bearcats. Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* Colorado/UNLV Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes have been underrated all season. I like their chances of pulling off the upset tonight against UNLV in the Round of 64. The Buffaloes won the Pac-12 Tournament by winning four games in four days, and they now come in with a lot of momentum.

UNLV went just 4-4 down the stretch, and they have clearly been overrated since making a splash early in the season in non-conference play. The Runnin' Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their failure against the spread just shows how overvalued this team has been.

The Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog. Colorado is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. UNLV is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder +1

Any time you can get the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog, it's probably worth pulling the trigger. I believe that's especially the case tonight against the overmatched Denver Nuggets. The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league to back following a loss.

The Thunder are 32-10 on the season as they own the best record in the Western Conference. They have only lost back-to-back games once all season, which really shows the character of this team. Coming off a 103-104 home loss to Houston two nights ago, the Thunder are going to be out for blood tonight.

Oklahoma City is 52-24-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a S.U. loss. The Thunder are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. OKC is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games off a home loss. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Murray State -4.5

Murray State is a team that continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. They should be a much heavier favorite today over Colorado State, a team that doesn't even belong in the NCAA Tournament. Murray State certainly belongs with a 30-1 record, and they should have been given a better seed.

I look for the Racers to come out on a mission to prove their doubters wrong. They don't get the love they deserve simply because they play in the Ohio Valley. But Murray State has beaten four NCAA Tournament teams in Southern Miss, Western Kentucky, Memphis and St. Mary's. This team is the real deal.

Murray State is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Murray State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non conference games. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the Racers. Take Murray State Thursday.

15* Celtics/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +4.5

The Golden State Warriors should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Boston Celtics. This team is undervalued right now due to the fact that they just traded Monte Ellis to the Milwaukee Bucks. They didn't have him last night, and they won 115-89 at Sacramento.

I don't believe the loss of Ellis will hurt this team one bit. They still have three stud guards in Stephon Curry, Klay Thompson and Nate Robinson, so they have plenty of depth at the position. Adding a big man like Andrew Bogut is precisely what they needed.

The Warriors are in a great state of mind right now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They beat the defending champion Mavericks 111-87, followed by a huge road win at the Los Angeles Clippers 97-93, and then that 26-point victory at Sacramento last night. Their confidence is at an all-time high right now.

The Celtics are just 6-11 on the road this season where they are scoring 88.6 points/game. Boston is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Warriors Wednesday.

25* NCAA Tournament Play-In GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3

The South Florida Bulls have been underrated all season. That hasn't changed in the NCAA Tournament as they should not have had to play a play-in game. USF will continue proving their doubters wrong by "upsetting" California tonight.

I believe the Bulls should be favored in this one. USF put together a 20-13 campaign this season, including a very impressive 12-6 mark in Big East play. They have recently beaten Cincinnati and won at Louisville, two very good NCAA Tournament teams.

California played in one of the weakest conferences in the country this season. The Bears arguably should not have gotten into the big dance after losing three of their final four games, including a bad 59-70 setback against Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament.

The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. USF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Cal is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends make for a 24-3 (89%) system backing the Bulls. Bet South Florida Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are once again showing amazing value tonight against the Houston Rockets. Because the Bobcats own the worst record in the league, the betting public continues to stay off them. Now is the time to hop on board with this kind of value folks.

I'm not going to make an argument that Charlotte is a great team, because they are not. But the Bobcats were beat up with injuries in the first half, and they are just now finally starting to get healthy. I have no doubt they'll be more competitive from here on out given their health.

Houston is in a huge letdown spot tonight, plus they will be the more tired team. The Rockets are coming off a big 1-point road win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. After playing and defeating the top team in the West, the Rockets will have a hard time getting motivated to face the team with the worst record in the league tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (HOUSTON) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days. Not only are they tired, but the Rockets could be without two of their best players in Kyle Lowry & Kevin Martin, who are each listed as questionable. Take Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +3

Golden State is playing their best basketball of the season right now. As an underdog against the lowly Sacramento Kings (14-27) tonight, I'll pull the trigger on the Warriors once again. I had them Sunday night in a 97-93 outright road win over the Clippers as a 7-point underdog as well.

That win over the Clippers was their second impressive victory in a row. They had just beaten the defending champion Dallas Mavericks 111-87 the night before. Those two wins right there show that the Warriors are capable of playing with just about anyone. Now healthy with Curry, Ellis, and Lee in full force, this is a dangerous team the rest of the way.

This play falls into a system that is 63-33 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SACRAMENTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are certainly happy to be playing in the NIT with a 17-16 record. Dayton is a team at 20-12 that was on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and they certainly did not want to be playing in the NIT. With the Hawkeyes more motivated tonight, I believe they run away with this one.

Iowa went a respectable 8-10 in Big Ten play this season, which was labeled the best conference in the country. That included two wins over Wisconsin, along with home victories over Michigan and Indiana, which are three teams that will be playing in the Big Dance. The Hawkeyes went 13-6 at home this season, while the Flyers went just 6-8 on the road.

Iowa is 8-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a 23-1 (96%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday.

20* NCAA Tournament First Round BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3

Western Kentucky did not have a great regular season, but they got hot at the right time and now will be a dangerous opponent going forward. I have them making easy work of Mississippi Valley State in this one. MVS is a quality team, but they aren't on the same level as the Hilltoppers.

WKU is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They won four straight games by five points or less in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament to be crown champs. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and there's no question that if this game is close down the stretch, they will have what it takes to pull it off.

Mississippi Valley State plays in one of the easiest conference in the country. Their true colors showed early in the non-conference slate as MVS opened 1-11 through their first 12 games with their lone win coming 90-89 over Tennessee State. They haven't played another NCAA Tournament team since that 1-11 start.

Western Kentucky is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games. MVS is 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games. WKU is 6-0 ATS in thier last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. WKU is 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. These last four trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Hilltoppers. Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I like the Milwaukee Bucks quite a bit tonight against the New Jersey Nets. The Bucks are playing much better of late, winning three of their last four games overall while going 4-0 ATS in the process. Their lone loss was a 104-106 setback to the Chicago Bulls, one of the best teams in the league.

One of the biggest reasons I have for this play is the fact that Deron Williams is doubtful to play with an ankle injury. Without Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) on the floor, the Nets are arguably the worst team in the league. They are already without second-leading scorer Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG) as well.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last few years to say the least. Milwaukee is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings with New Jersey dating back to 2009. Even more impressive is the fact that they've won all nine of those games by 7 points or more, and seven by double-digits. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Nets UNDER 198

Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total. I believe they have set it too high due to recent high-scoring games that the Bucks and Nets have played in. The clear value in this one is with the UNDER, and for a number of reasons.

The biggest reason is the fact that New Jersey is likely to be without their two leading scorers in Deron Williams (22.0 PPG, 8.0 APG) and Brook Lopez (19.2 PPG). The Nets will struggle to find points without Williams, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury.

New Jersey just combined for 218 points with Houston in their last game, while Milwaukee has combined for 204 or more points in three straight contests. Those efforts were "abnormal" considering these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Nets are only scoring 92.3 points/game at home while the Bucks are putting up just 93.0 points/game on the road.

Milwaukee beat New Jersey 92-85 in their lone meeting this season for 177 combined points on February 19th. That total was set at 195 points, and somehow they have raised this total to 198. Nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have seen 197 or less combined points as these teams have gone UNDER 198 points 82% of the time during this stretch. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Warriors/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

Golden State is showing great value Sunday as a 7-point road underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors are coming off an emphatic 111-87 win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, giving them the confidence they need to beat anyone in this league.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Golden State Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are primed to give the Miami Heat a run for their money tonight. Indiana is one of the most underrated teams in the league this season, and they're fully capable of pulling off this upset tonight.

Having not played since a 96-101 home loss to Atlanta on March 6th, the Pacers will be chomping at the bit to return to game action tonight. They have had three days off so they'll be rested and better prepared to take on the Heat.

Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat have already beaten the Pacers twice this season, so I could see them being disinterested here, which will likely lead to a letdown. Take Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State +9

NC State is primed to pull off the upset over rival North Carolina Saturday. This team is playing their best basketball down the stretch, winners of three straight to likely play their way into the NCAA Tournament.

UNC head coach Roy Williams hasn't been shy about the fact that he doesn't care about results in the ACC Tournament. His players know it, too, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.

NC State wants revenge from two regular season losses to the Tar Heels. They'll clearly be the more motivated team heading into this one because of it.

The Wolfpack are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. NC State is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet NC State Saturday.