Today’s Free Sport Picks

1* Free Pick on Lions/Bills: under 55

A total of 55 sits at the extreme top of the NFL board, and it got there off a one-game sample from each team.

The case against the under is obvious.

Buffalo put up 36 on Houston Sunday, Detroit hung 31 on New Orleans in overtime, and Josh Allen accounted for 4 total touchdowns.

I'm not arguing with any of that.

I'm arguing with the price.

Both teams have played exactly 1 game this season, and the books priced this like both offenses repeat that output on 3 days of rest.

That's recency bias, not handicapping.

Thursday games are a different animal.

No real practice week, no full install, tired legs on both sides.

Offenses feel it more than defenses.

Detroit's protection is the bigger issue.

Guard Christian Mahogany left Week 1 with a knee injury and Dan Campbell admitted he isn't out of the woods.

Tackle Blake Miller and guard Juice Scruggs are also questionable.

Jared Goff behind a patched line, on the road, against Bills edge Greg Rousseau, who sacked C.J.

Stroud twice Sunday.

That's stalled drives and field goals.

Detroit's own plan slows this down too.

Jahmyr Gibbs handled 29 of the team's 31 backfield carries in Week 1.

That's a run-heavy identity that bleeds clock and caps possessions.

And the pass rush cuts both ways: Lions end Aidan Hutchinson posted 2 sacks of his own Sunday.

A 55 needs roughly 8 touchdowns of scoring on a short week with banged-up lines.

I'll take the number the market overreacted to.

I like the Under

1* MLB - Red Sox/Rangers FREE PICK on Red Sox -107

1* FREE INFO PLAY Lions vs Bills over 54½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Padres/Rockies OVER 11

The Padres are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 15 and 12 combined runs with the Rockies in the first two games of this series.  The Rockies are 8-1-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  They have gone for at least 11 combined runs in eight of their last 12 games.  Mason Adams will be making just his second home start this season and his first did not go well, giving up 2 home runs in 4 2/3 innings.  Robbie Ray is 6-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 road starts this season.  Ray gave up 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in 6 innings in his last start against Colorado on July 28th, which came at Petco Park at home.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings with 11 or more combined runs in six of them.  Give me the OVER.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 GL over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here.

UNDER 48

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Fifty and a half in Arlington is the number I want you holding. Not because both defenses are fake. Because 50.5 is the number the market hung on a series that just lived 53, 66, 60, 48 and 55.

You are not fading defense. You are fading a 50.5 that is priced like this rivalry forgot how it scores. Cowboys lead it 81-49-2. That is the side of the ledger. The total is the other page. Last six meetings: 30-23, 44-22, 23-19, 34-26, 38-10, 45-10. Combined 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed a 50. Last two in this building: 44-22 and 23-19. One smash, one under on a 43.5. Public money will hammer the under because Week 1 was 24-22 and 28-20 and “NFC East always stalls in September.” That is how 50.5 gets to the window looking fat instead of the number that does not match Christmas, October, Thanksgiving, and January in this series.

Do not buy this down to 49.5 and pay extra juice to sleep better. The 50.5 is the reason I am writing it. Sit on your hands. Let the first quarter look like October in Dallas. If it is 14-10 at the half, the over is already doing its job.

Sunday 4:25. Dallas -4.5. Washington 0-1 after 24-22 in Philadelphia. Dallas 0-1 after 28-20 to the Giants. Combined 46 and 48 last week. That is not this series. This series in the last two years has been 66 and 53 and 60. Cowboys 3,150 points all-time in the rivalry, Washington 2,582. The building does not keep these games in the 30s unless somebody forgets to throw it.

Bet the over 50.5 in Commanders–Cowboys games.
Last 6 meetings: 53, 66, 42, 60, 48, 55. Five of six cashed 50. Average 54.0. (+3.6 units, ROI=54.5%)

Bet the over when these two meet in Dallas and the number is 50 or higher.
Last meeting here: 44-22. Posted 55.5 and still went over. (+1.0 units, ROI=90.9%)

Bet overs in this series when five of the last six already cleared 47.
38-10 was the “low” one and it still cashed 47. (+4.0 units, ROI=60.6%)

Free Pick on Cubs -145

FREE PLAY on Rockies +155