6* Celtics/Bulls TNT *CA$H COW* on UNDER 211

The Key: Because the Celtics played a shootout against the Nets last night in a 122-117 win, this total has been inflated tonight.  The Celtics won't be playing with the same energy as they did last night, and the Bulls are a much better defensive team than the Nets.  The Bulls have plus-defenders in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez, Rajon Rondo and Dwayne Wade in their starting lineup.  They will be a great defensive team this year.  I worry about their offense, though, as they lack shooting in their starting 5.  This may be one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA this season.  All 3 meetings between these teams last season saw 211 or fewer combined points.  They combined for 211, 193 and 205 points in them.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win.  The UNDER is 40-18-3 in Celtics last 61 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers ESPN *BAILOUT* on OVER 222

The Key: Mike D'Antoni was a perfect fit for Houston's roster.  That has proven to be the case in the preseason as the Rockets led the league with an average of 118.6 points per game, which was 6 points more than second-place Golden State.  Their defense leaves a lot to be desired as they gave up 108.1 points per game in the preseason.  The Lakers are going to be improved offensively this season with their young nucleus in Luke Walton's system, which he brings over from Golden State.  They average a solid 105.9 points per game in the preseason to finish in the Top 10.  But they had the fourth-worst scoring defense in allowing 107.2 points per game, and that will be the case all season.  Look for plenty of points in this opener as the combined scored of this game sails way OVER 222 points.  Take the OVER.

7* Cavs/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 205

The Key: The Golden State Warriors will no longer be able to go small with Draymond Green at center, which is their best lineup.  They will have to go bigger and give Andrew Bogut more minutes.  I believe that chance will make the Warriors' offense much less potent, and it will help lead to a low-scoring Game 5.  These teams are now very familiar with one another after playing four games already, which also favors the defenses.  Cleveland is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last eight vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Warriors last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Thunder/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 219

The Key: The Thunder and Warriors have now squared off six straight times.  It's obvious that they are familiar with one another now, and that will lead to a low-scoring battle in Game 7 that favors the defenses with everything at stake.  These teams combined for 209 points in Game 6, and I look for a similar output tonight in Golden State.  The Warriors have been going with a bigger lineup to counter the Thunder, which also favors the UNDER.  The Under is 8-3 in Thunder last 11 Conference Finals games.  The Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 Conference Finals games.  The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 221

The Key: The Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder are obviously extremely familiar with one another as they've played five games in this series already.  That clearly favors the defenses and will lead to a low-scoring affair in Game 6.  The Warriors made an adjustment and decided to go bigger for longer stretches in Game 5, and it worked, so look for them to go big again.  That also favors the defenses as the Thunder prefer to play big anyways.  OKC is 13-3 UNDER after two straight games where it made 9 or more 3-point shots.  Golden State is 17-5 UNDER off two straight games where it made 85% or more of their free throws this season.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 road games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Thunder/Warriors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5

The Key: The UNDER is 3-1 through the first four games of this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough tonight in setting this total above 220 points once again.  They combined for 210 points in Game 1, 209 in Game 2 and 212 points in Game 4.  I expect a similar result tonight here in Game 5 as these teams are now extremely familiar with one another, which only favors the defenses even more as this series goes on.  OKC is 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 9-plus points per game this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last 4 road games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder's last 9 conference finals games.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Warriors last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 220.5

The Key: The first two games of this series have stayed well UNDER the posted total, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough in Game 3 tonight.  They combined for 210 points in Game 1 and 209 points in Game 2.  The total for Game 3 has been set at 220.5, and I have a hard time seeing them combining for at least 210 points again, let alone 220.5.  Golden State is 21-10 UNDER in all playoff games over the last two seasons.  OKC is 12-3 UNDER off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 conference finals games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 conference finals games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Raptors *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198.5

The Key: I certainly like backing the UNDER in playoff series as they get deeper into the series.  That's because teams become more familiar with each other, which favors the defenses.  The Raptors and Cavs combined for 199 points in Game 1 and then 197 in Game 2.  I look for that trend to continue and for Game 3 to be the lowest-scoring contest yet.  The UNDER is 48-23 in Cavaliers last 71 vs. Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in the last 27 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

7* Spurs/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: This series continues to get lower-scoring as the series progresses and the Spurs and Thunder get more familiar with one another.  We've seen 3 of the last 4 games finish with 196 or fewer combined points, including a series-low 186 points in Game 5.  I look for a similar total in Game 6 tonight as this will be yet another defensive battle.  San Antonio is 27-12 UNDER off an ATS loss this season.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Spurs last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Thunder last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Take the UNDER.

7* Thunder/Spurs *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: After combined scores of 195 and 196 in Games 2 and 3, the Spurs and Thunder combined for 208 points in Game 4.  But the Thunder shot 50.6% in that contest and the Spurs 47.1%, and that won't happen again in Game 5.  The series is pretty much on the line in this game tonight, so look for the defensive intensity to be very high.  Also, these teams are now so familiar with each other that scoring will be at a premium.  The Spurs only give up 90.4 points per game at home this year.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Thunder's last 15 games off two straight games where they made 9 or more 3-point shots.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Spurs/Thunder *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198.5

The Key: The last two games in this series have gone UNDER 198.5 points.  The Spurs and Thunder combined for 195 points in Game 2 and 196 points in Game 3.  Now that they are even more familiar with one another, I look for Game 4 to actually be the lowest-scoring game of this series yet.  Oklahoma City is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Spurs last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Thunder last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in OKC, and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Heat Game 3 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Heat and Raptors have somehow managed to go to overtime in three straight games dating back to the regular season.  The first two games of this series were extremely low-scoring in regulation.  They combined for 180 points at the end of regulation in Game 1, and 172 points at the end of regulation in Game 2.  I look for Game 3 to take a similar pattern and to stay well UNDER the posted total of 187.5, obviously assuming they don't go to OT for a 4th consecutive time.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Blazers/Warriors Game 1 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 208.5

The Key: With no Steph Curry, the Golden State Warriors have had to win with defense in the playoffs up to this point.  They held the high-octane Houston Rockets to an average of only 91.2 points per game last series.  Now they're going to make it tough on the Blazers in this series as well, starting with Game 1.  It's also worth noting the Blazers held the Clippers to 98 or fewer points in 3 of their 6 games.  This will certainly be a defensive battle today folks.  Bets on the UNDER on home teams when the total 200 or more, an excellent offensive team that averages at least 102 points per game against a bad defensive team that gives up at least 102 points per game, after scorign 55 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games are 74-33 over the last 5 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

7* Raptors/Pacers *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: When you look at how this series has played out, there's a lot to like about the UNDER in Game 6 tonight.  The UNDER went 4-0 in their first four games before going over the total in Game 5.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in 4 of the 5 games thus far.  They have averaged only 189 combined points per game in this series, so there's clearly value with the UNDER in Game 6.  Indiana is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.  Indiana is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 road games.  Take this combined 24-2 angle backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* Celtics/Hawks Game 5 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 198

The Key: The Boston Celtics have shot 36.3% and 31.8% in their first two games in Atlanta in this series.  The Hawks have only been slightly better, shooting 40.7% and 39.0%, respectively.  Look for a very low-scoring contest in Game 5 similar to Game 2 when these teams only combined for 161 points.  Now very familiar with one another, this is sure to be a defensive battle.  Atlanta is 11-2 UNDER in home playoff games over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Celtics last 12 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blazers/Clippers UNDER 205.5

The Key: After combining for 210 points in Game 1, the last two games of this series have been extremely low scoring as these teams have become more familiar with one another, which has clearly favored the defenses.  They combined for 183 points in Game 2 and 184 points in Game 3.  Now the total is set at 205.5 for Game 4, which is more than 20 points more than they combined for the past two games.  This is about as easy as it gets ladies and gents as this game will stay well UNDER the posted total as well.  Five of the last seven meetings have seen 193 or fewer combined points also.  The Clippers are 14-6 UNDER revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Los Angeles is 9-0 UNDER versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The Clippers are 10-1 UNDER versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season this season.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Clippers last 52 games following a straight up loss.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Celtics/Warriors UNDER 222

The Key: The Celtics and Warriors both have a lot to play for right now, so the defensive intensity should be high in this game.  These teams met earlier this season with the Warriors winning 124-119 in double-overtime.  But that game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for 206 combined points.  That's about the same output I expect tonight at the end of regulation as this game stays well below the 222-point total.  Boston is 14-3 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER.

6* Indiana/UNC Sweet 16 *BAILOUT* on UNDER 158.5

The Key: The public perception on UNC and Indiana is that they are both offensive juggernauts.  That's why this total has been set so high tonight.  But the fact of the matter is that both are better defensively than they get credit for, which is why both have been dominant down the stretch.  UNC has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to less than a point per possession, and it finished ranked 3rd in the ACC in defensive efficiency.  Indiana was able to win the Big Ten this season because it finished 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency.  19 of UNC's last 20 games have seen less than 160 combined points, while 19 of Indiana's last 21 games have seen less than 160 combined points at the end of regulation.  The UNDER is 14-5 in UNC's last 19 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 neutral site games.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *TOTAL* Annihilator on Jazz/Bucks UNDER 192

The Key: When the Jazz and Bucks get together, the end result is usually a low-scoring affair.  That will be the case again tonight when these teams meet up in Milwaukee.  Both teams are fighting to stay alive in their respective playoff races, which will add to the defensive intensity.  The last two meetings between these teams have seen 157 and 165 combined points.  That's an average of 161 combined points per game, which is 31 points below this 192-point total today.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 Sunday games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Villanova/Iowa UNDER 146

The Key: Villanova and Iowa are two of the best defensive teams in the country.  Villanova is the most efficient scoring defense in the land as it allows only 63.5 points per game and under 40% shooting.  Iowa allows 68.7 points per game and 41.6% shooting this season.  Villanova lives off the 3-pointer, but Iowa doesn't allow that, giving up just 30.8% 3-point shooting this season.  Villanova is 8-1 UNDER in its last 9 neutral court games when the total is 140 to 149.5.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAA Tournament *TOTAL* Annihilator on Gonzaga/Utah UNDER 140

The Key: Utah and Gonzaga play similar styles that will make points hard to come by in this one.  Both have tremendous interior defense with their size inside, and they use that size on offense to try and get easy buckets.  But the buckets won't come easy in this one because both teams defend the paint so well.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Utah's last nine games vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12 or more per game on the season after 15 or more games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulldogs' last 5 games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Utah's last 13 games vs. WCC foes.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 222

The Key: It's pretty easy to see that this total has been inflated when you look at recent meetings between the Timberwolves and Suns.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and none of those five games saw more than 220 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 209 points per game in those five contests.  As you can see, that's 13 points fewer than the 222-point total set today.  Minnesota is 21-3 UNDER in its last 24 road games off an upset win over a division opponent.  Phoenix is 9-1 UNDER in March home games over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* Cavs/Lakers TNT *BAILOUT* on OVER 209

The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers have really gotten going offensively here of late.  They have scored 100-plus points in five straight games, and that trend will continue against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Lakers.  Los Angeles has also shown some life offensively in averaging 109.5 points per game in its last two.  But the Lakers have allowed 101-plus points in 9 of their last 11 games  and yield 106.9 points per game on the season.  The Cavs and Lakers have combined for at least 211 points in 5 straight meetings with the OVER going 5-0.  They have combined for 231, 225, 211, 227 and 238 points in those five.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Raptors/Rockets Under 214

The Key: Expect the Raptors to control the pace and slow this game down despite Houston's tendency to run the court on offense and try to force turnovers on defense.  The Rockets are on their second road game in a row after playing in Chicago Saturday and should fall into the Raptors more methodical pace.  Take the Under.

6* NBA *TOTAL* Annihilator on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 193

The Key: It's hard not to like the UNDER in this game when you look at recent meetings. The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 190 or fewer points in 8 consecutive meetings.  They've averaged 179.6 points in those 8 meetings.  That's 13.4 points fewer than tonight's posted total of 193, and it's an 8-0 angle when you consider this 193-point total.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Monday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Thunder/Kings UNDER 227.5

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are really banged up right now with DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo all nursing injuries.  They have managed just an average of 99.5 points per game int heir last two games and will find it hard to score on Oklahoma City as well.  When looking at recent meetings, it's easy to seotal has been set way too high tonight.  In fact, the Thunder and Kings have combined for 220 or fewer points in 13 straight meetings.  That's a 13-0 angle when factoring in this 227.5-point total set.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Pacers OVER 204

The Key: These teams recently played on February 10 with the Hornets winning 117-95 for 212 combined points.  I look for another shootout tonight between the Pacers and Hornets that easily exceeds this 204-point total.  The Pacers have topped 100 points in 8 of their last 12 games overall.  The Hornets have topped 100 points in 7 of their last 9 games overall.  Indiana is 9-1 OVER revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.  Charlotte is 17-7 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 home games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 vs Eastern Conference.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Wizards UNDER 198

The Key: The Utah Jazz play at the league's slowest pace by a wide margin, averaging just 92.9 possessions per game.  They win their games with defense as they rank 14th in defensive efficiency and only yielding 96.4 points per game on the season.  Washington and Utah are used to low-scoring games.  IN their two meetings last season, they combined for 172 points in Utah and 177 points in Washington.  As you can see, those two outputs were 26 and 21 points less than this 198-point total.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Wizards last 15 home games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Thunder/Suns UNDER 215.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are a mess right now, having lost 13 of their last 14 games overall.  Their biggest problem is that they are getting no offensive production due to injuries to three of their best scorers.  Eric Bledson, Brandon Knight and TJ Warren are all out.  The Suns have scored 98 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games.  Knowing that fact alone, it's easy to see why there is value with the UNDER 215.5 points in this game against the Thunder Monday night.  The Suns are 9-1 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive home losses over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Bucks/Jazz UNDER 189.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks really prefer to play at a slow tempo.  The Jazz rank dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.0 possessions per game.  The Bucks rank 25th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game.  We saw this on display when these teams last got together.  The Jazz beat the Bucks 82-75 at home for 157 combined points.  While I don't expect this game to be that low scoring, I do see it easily going under this 189.5-point total.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 road games overall.  The UNDER is 25-11-1 in Jazz last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Bulls ESPN *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The oddsmakers have set a very big total for this game between the Warriors and Bulls tonight.  I believe the value to be on the UNDER at 215 points in this one.  For starters, this game will be played on National TV, so the defensive intensity will be higher than normal.  Both teams are coming off high-scoring games that have inflated this total with the Warriors scoring 132 against Cleveland and the Bulls scoring 111 against Detroit.  But the real key here is that the Bulls and Warriors have combined for 214 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 13 straight meetings. That's a 13-0 system backing the UNDER when factoring in this total set of 215.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Cavs TNT *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 209

The Key: Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this NBA Finals rematch between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.  It's clear that the intensity level will be very high in this game, and that will favor the defenses.  These teams are obviously familiar with one another after playing in the NBA Finals last season and once already this year, so that also favors the defenses.  The first meeting between these teams on Christmas Day was very low-scoring as well.  The Warriors beat the Cavs 89-83 for 172 combined points.  They have combined for 208 or fewer points in all 7 meetings since Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and 195 or fewer points in five of those.  Cleveland is 12-0 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Nets/Hawks UNDER 205.5

The Key: Based on the recent history between the Nets and Hawks, it's clear that oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  Both teams are coming off high-scoring games last night, but the Hawks only went over the total against the Bucks due to overtime.  Those two high scoring games have forced oddsmakers to inflate this total as well.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with combined scores of 178, 188 and 198 points.  That's an average of 188.0 combined points per game, which is 17.5 points less than this 205.5-point total.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on T'Wolves/Rockets OVER 204.5

The Key: When the Timberwolves and Rockets get together, it usually results in a high-scoring affair.  In fact, the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams with six straight combined scores of 214 or more points.  They have combined for 230, 215, 226, 214, 222 and 235 points in their last 6 meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 223.7 combined points per game, which is 19.2 points more than this posted total of 204.5.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Mavs OVER 198

The Key: With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers are hitting on all cylinders offensively.  They have scored 104, 122, 121, 125 and 95 points in their last 5 games overall.  That 95-point effort was the result of a poor shooting night in which they shot just 38.9% against the 76ers, but that's not likely to happen again.  The Mavs have scored at least 100 points in 6 of their last 10 games coming in.  Recent meetings between these teams indicate that this total has been set too low.  The Mavs and Cavs have combined for at least 199 points in 4 straight meetings.  They are averaging 212.5 combined points/game over their last 4 meetings.  That's 14.5 points more than this 198-point total.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Grizzlies UNDER 192.5

The Key: The Grizzlies have been playing in some very low-scoring games over the past month-plus.  They have scored fewer than 100 points in 15 of their last 18, and they've allowed 100 or fewer in 12 of their last 13.  The Grizzlies are still a great defensive team, but they are now offensively-challenged because both PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee are nursing injuries that will likely keep them out tonight.  The Nuggets and Grizzlies have played in very low scoring affairs in their last two meetings with combined scores of 173 and 168 points.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  The Nuggets are 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Knicks UNDER 196.5

The Key: When you look at recent meetings between the Knicks and Magic, it's easy to see why I like the UNDER here.  They have combined for 191, 159 and 172 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 174.0 points per game and 22.5 points less than this 196.5-point total.  Both teams prefer to slow down the tempo as the Magic rank 19th in pace while the Knicks are 23rd.  Both teams struggle offensively as the Magic are 19th in offensive efficiency while the Knicks are 21st.  Both teams are improved defensively this season as the Magic rank 8th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks rank 16th.  Orlando is 8-0 UNDER in road games off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  The Magic are 8-0 UNDER in road games off a home loss to a division opponent over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Magic/Nets UNDER 199

The Key: Two poor offensive teams square off tonight when the Magic meet the Nets in an Eastern Conference showdown.  The Magic rank 23rd in offensive efficiency while the Nets rank 27th.  These are two teams who also play at below-average league paces as the Nets are 16th in pace while the Magic are tied for 17th.  Each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  Orlando is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Magic are 34-13 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last 3 years.  The Nets are 14-3 UNDER off a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 years.  The UNDER is 12-1 in Magic last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *Total* Annihilator on Grizzlies/Heat UNDER 189.5

The Key: The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA.  They are 17-4 to the UNDER this season and oddsmakers just can't set their totals low enough.  They certainly haven't set this one low enough as this is a battle between two defense-first teams who play at slow paces.  Miami ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 96.4 points per 100 possessions.  While the Grizzlies have slipped defensively this year, this is still a good defensive team.  Miami ranks 25th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Memphis ranks 24th in pace at 96.9 possessions per game.  Miami is 20th in offensive efficiency while Memphis is 25th in offensive efficiency.  The Heat are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams with winning records this year.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons/76ers UNDER 192.5

The Key: The 76ers and Pistons played in some ugly defensive battles in their final two meetings last year.  THey combined for 158 and 177 points, both of which came in Philadelphia.  The 76ers are awful offensively once again this season as they are 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Pistons have also struggled on that end as they're 24th in offensive efficiency.  But the Pistons do lock it down defensively, ranking 8th in the NBA in efficiency on that end.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 games, while the UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games as well.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 192.5

The Key: These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  The 76ers rank last in offensive efficiency at 91.7 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks are 23rd at 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  These teams are used to playing in ugly, low-scoring games when they meet.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with all five games seeing 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined to average 183.6 points in those 5 meetings.  The UNDER is 25-12 in 76ers last 37 games on 0 days of rest.  The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Knicks last 8 home games.  The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Knicks last 15 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 197

The Key: The Utah Jazz are a slow-it-down team that plays some of the best defense in the NBA.  The Jazz rank 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  They actually rank last in the NBA in pace, averaging 94.7 possessions per game.  They are 19th in offensive efficiency at 100.1 points per 100 possessions.  New Orleans is expected to be without leading scorer Anthony Davis, which is going to make life real difficult for them offensively.  Utah is 15-4 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Pelicans last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Western Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs are playing tremendous defense this season.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions.  But their offense has really been lacking recently.  They've averaged 93.3 points in their last three games and have turned the ball over 39 times in their last two.  This has typically been a low-scoring series of late as the UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  They have combined for 180, 195 and 192 points in their last three meetings dating back to last season.  Dallas is 10-1 UNDER off a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Mavericks last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.   The UNDER is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 207

The Key: The New York Knicks got a lot better defensively this season when they signed defensive anchor Robin Lopez in the offseason.  They are playing great on the defensive end, holding eight of their last nine opponents to less than 100 points.  But they haven't been a whole lot better offensively this year, scoring 99 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in their last 9 games as a result.  Their job defensively tonight got a whole lot easier when it was announced that Kevin Durant was going to miss this game as well as he continues to recover from injury.  The Thunder just aren't as explosive offensively without him.  These teams played in a couple low-scoring affairs last season.  They combined for 192 and 183 points in their two meetings.  I don't expect that a year later its' going to be any different, especially without Durant and with the way the Knicks are getting after it defensively.  OKC is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* Bucks/Cavaliers TNT *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: These teams just played a few days ago on November 14 in a double-overtime thriller in which the Bucks won 108-105 at home.  But this game was tied 88-88 at the end of regulation, which is 176 combined points, nearly 20 points below this 195.5-point total.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after having just played, and I look for the defenses to be at an advantage because of it.  The UNDER is 17-4 in Bucks last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the UNDER.

6* SDSU/Utah ESPN 2 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 132

The Key: Utah and San Diego State are two teams that make a living off their defense.  The Aztecs finished second in Division 1 in scoring defense last season at 53.9 points per game and 3rd in fewer points per possession.  They limited Illinois State to 30.8 percent shooting in their opener.  Utah held its opponents to 41.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts last season behind the efforts of defensive anchor Jakob Poeltl.  Both teams went over the total in their openers, which I think is why this total has been inflated.  San Diego State beat Illinois State 71-60 while Utah beat Southern Utah 82-71 and allowed 50% shooting, including 10 of 19 from 3-point range.  But look for the Utes to come back with a much stronger effort defensively in this one.  This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings. SDSU beat Utah 53-49 at home last year for 102 combined points despite the total being set at 130.5.  In their previous meeting, SDSU beat Utah 64-50 for 114 combined points with a total of 127.  SDSU is 40-22 UNDER in all games over the last three seasons.  Utah is 16-6 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three years. Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *TOTAL* Annihilator on 76ers/Spurs UNDER 196

The Key: Philadelphia just lost 85-102 at Oklahoma City last night in a low-scoring affair that saw 187 combined points. I expect more of the same from them tonight against the Spurs.  The last time they traveled to San Antonio last season, they lost 75-100 for 175 combined points.  The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging just 92.7 points per 100 possessions.  Their defense is at least decent with all of the big guys in the middle at their disposal, but they can't get anything going offensively.  It's not going to get any easier tonight against a Spurs team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 94.3 points per 100 possessions.  San Antonio is 16-5 UNDER off a road win where it scored 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 (76ers) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of less than 25% and playing a team with a winning record are 72-32 since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 203.5

The Key: When looking at the recent history between the Cavs and Knicks, it's easy to see that there is some serious value with the UNDER 203.5 tonight.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 182, 184, 177 and 185 points, which comes out to an average of 182 points per game.  That's 21.5 points less than this 203.5-point total.  These teams just played on November 4 with 182 combined points.  This total just makes no sense to me with how high it has been set, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Clippers Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 215.5

The Key: These are two teams that love to push the tempo as they both rank in the top 10 in the NBA in possessions per game.  That's going to lead to a high-scoring game tonight, which is the usual outcome when these teams get together.  They have combined for 213, 226, 227, 223, 223, 224 and 218 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 222 combined points per game.  Because of this, I believe there's some value with the over 215.5 tonight.  Houston has combined with its opponents for 226, 233 and 215 points in its last three games overall.  The OVER is 9-1 in Clippers last 10 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 10-3 in Clippers lats 13 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5 in Clippers last 20 Saturday games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the OVER.

6* Nuggets/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on OVER 211

The Key: The Nuggets are going to make a concentrated effort to push the tempo tonight after their 84-96 loss to defensive-minded Utah last night.  "In our losses, we've had too many ups and downs," said Danilo Gallinari, who scored a team-high 18 points. "We cannot allow ourselves to have too many ups and downs and have lapses in the game where we don't have pace".  The Warriors play at the league's fourth-fastest pace this season and lead the NBA in averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions.  Looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that there is value with the OVER.  These teams have gone 3-1 to the OVER in their last four meetings while averaging 226.3 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Wednesday *TOTAL* Annihilator on Knicks/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Key: The New York Knicks improved their defense this offseason by signing Robin Lopez, who is one of the best defensive centers in the league.  His presence has been felt in the preseason as the Knicks ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up 94.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Milwaukee Bucks were a great defensive team last year in allowing just 43.7% shooting to opponents.  The Knicks averaged just 91.9 points on 42.8% shooting last year, while the Bucks managed to shoot just 45.4% from the field.  The final three meetings between these teams last year saw 190, 174 and 177 combined points, which is an average of 180.3 combined points per game.  I look for this game to finish in the 180-point range as well.  The Knicks are without shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, which hampers their offense.  The Bucks are without Jabari Parker, O.J. Mayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, which hampers them as well.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Bulls/Nets UNDER 196.5

The Key: The Bulls and Nets are accustomed to playing in low-scoring games when they get together.  None of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 200 or more combined points.  They have combined for 199, 178, 185, 186, 176, 168, 173, 192 and 187 points in their last nine meetings.  That's an average of 182.7 points per game, which is well below this posted total of 196.  It's also an 8-1 angle backing the under.  The Nets have one of the least-talented rosters in the NBA, and the Bulls don't have the personnel to run the up-tempo offense that Fred Hoiberg liked to run while he was at Iowa State.  The Nets run their offense through Brook Lopez, so they are a slow-it-down team this year.  Plus, starting PG Jarrett Jack is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury for the Nets.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have a lot of energy to get up and down the court on offense.  Take the UNDER.

7* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Tuesday Night *BAILOUT* on UNDER 213

The Key: These teams are very familiar with one another after the Warriors swept the Pelicans in the playoffs last year.  Adding to that familiarity to open 2015-16 is that first-year head coach Alvin Gentry was an assistant for the Warriors last season.  That will be an interesting dynamic and one that should help lead to a low-scoring opener with all this familiarity.  These teams have combined for 208 or fewer points in five of their past six meetings at the end of regulation.  They have combined for 207, 216, 184, 205, 203 and 208 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-1-2 in Warriors last 11 home games.  The UNDER is 44-19-1 in Warriors last 64 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 203.5

The Key: This NBA Finals figures to be a high-scoring affair between two of the best offensive teams in the league.  I believe this 203.5-point total for Game 1 will be the lowest of the series as they combine to sail way over the total, which will have oddsmakers adjusting future games to have higher totals.  The Warriors put up 109.1 points per game overall and 111.2 points per game at home.  I look for them to approach their season averages against a Cleveland defense that is giving up 99.3 points per game on the road.  Cleveland is scoring 102.9 points per game overall, but it's offense has been much more efficient when Lebron James has been healthy.  The Cavs scored a combined 116.0 points per game in their final two games against Atlanta last series.  The two regular season meetings between these teams averaged 206.5 combined points per game, and Lebron James didn't play in one of them.  Golden State is 23-6 OVER off a game with 70 or more rebounds.  Take the OVER.

7* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: After an extremely high-scoring Game 3 in this series, I feel that the oddsmakers have set the total too high for Game 4.  They have raised the total up from 190 in Game 3 to 194 for Game 4 based on the last contest alone.  The Cavaliers are short-handed offensively right now as they are likely without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love again.  The Hawks are without Kyle Korver for the rest of the postseason, which really hurts their floor spacing.  Lebron James is also hurt right now, but playing through it.  Atlanta is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 when facing elimination in a playoff series.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks' last five games overall.  The UNDER is 36-16-1 in Cavaliers last 53 when playing on one days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on OVER 214

The Key: This is strictly a value play.  The oddsmakers set the Warriors/Rockets total at 220 for Game 1 and 219 for Game 2.  Now, they have lowered the total all the way down to 214 for Game 3.  They have been forced to do so because the first two games went under the total.  Now, the clear value is with the over in Game 3.  Te OVER is 11-3 in Rockets last 14 home games.  The OVER is 14-6 in Rockets last 20 games overall.  The OVER is 37-18 in Rockets last 55 games following a loss.  Take the OVER.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 6 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 194

The Key: The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for it.  The first total of this series was 196 points, and the total for Game 6 is only 194 points.  I still believe there's a ton of value here on the UNDER considering these teams haven't combined for more than 188 points in any game yet.  They have averaged just 184.6 combined points per game in the series, which is still nearly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  Plus, this game will be played in Memphis, and that means the Grizzlies will likely control the tempo as they love to play a half-court game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Warriors L6 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 24-2 in Grizzllies last 26 home games.  Take this combined 36-2 system backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Bulls UNDER 192

The Key: The over has gone 3-1 in the last four games in this series.  That has provided us with ample value on the UNDER tonight.  Games in Chicago have been much lower-scoring than games in Cleveland, simply because Chicago controls the tempo when playing at home, and it likes to play at a slower pace.  These teams have averaged 182.5 combined points per game in the two meetings in Chicago this series.  In an elimination game, the intensity will be high for both teams, especially on the defensive end of the floor.  The Bulls are 33-23 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season.  Chicago is 11-3 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Cavs last 5 road games.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Cavs last 51 games when playing on 1 days' rest.  Take the UNDER.

7* Clippers/Rockets Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 219

The Key: With the OVER being 4-0 through the first four games of this series, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in Game 5.  It's clear that the hack-a-Jordan has not worked for the Rockets, and I expect them to go away from it tonight, which will aid the under.  They just cannot afford to have so many guys in foul trouble as it has continued to haunt them in the second half of most of these games.  This 219-point total is seven points higher than Game 1's 212-point total, which alone shows that there is value with the UNDER.  Plays on the UNDER on teams where the total is greater than 210 (Clippers) - after a win by 10 pints or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 or more in two straight games are 41-10 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER.

7* Warriors/Grizzlies Game 4 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 196

The Key: The reason the Memphis Grizzlies have a 2-1 series lead is because they have forced the Golden State Warriors to play at their pace both home and away.  They have combined for 187, 187 and 188 points as the UNDER is 3-0 in the first three games in this series.  I look for more of the same in Game 4 with the Grizzlies controlling the tempo playing at home.  Memphis is 25-8 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  The UNDER is 23-3 in Grizzlies last 26 home games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Cavs/Bulls Game 3 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 195.5

The Key: This is the highest total set yet in this series between the Cavs and Bulls.  That's because they are coming off and OVER in Game 2 where they combined for 197 points as the Cavs put up 106 and shot 12 of 26 from 3-point range.  I look for Game 3 to be much lower scoring, and the fact that this is the highest total yet in the series signifies some line value here with the UNDER.  Chicago doesn't want to get in a track meet, and it will control the tempo playing at home this time around.  Chicago is 16-5 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 21-9 in Cavs last 30 Conference Semifinals games.  The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Cavs last 61 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven games off a S.U. loss.  Take the UNDER.

7* Nets/Hawks Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 200.5

The Key: Prior to the Nets' 120-115 (OT) win over the Hawks in Game 4, this was a very low scoring series.  They had combined for 191 points in Game 1, 187 in Game 2 and 174 in Game 3.  I look for Game 5 to be played more like the first three games rather than Game 4 with what's at stake with this series tied 2-2.  There's no doubt both teams will be laying it on the line defensively to get a win.  Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-5 in Nets last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 conference quarterfinal games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Sunday Night "Bailout" on UNDER 220.5

The Key: This number has been inflated due to one of the highest-scoring games in postseason history in Game 3 between the Mavs and Rockets.  They combined for 258 points in regulation in Game 3, which was a complete aberration based on what these teams have done lately when up against each other.  The UNDER is actually 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have combined for 211 or fewer points in five of those seven contests.  The total for Game 1 was 212.5, so the fact that this total in Game 4 is 220.5 shows you that there's value with the under.  Take the UNDER.

7* Thursday NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 187

The Key: Games in the NBA playoffs tend to get more lower scoring as they go on.  That has been the case in this series as these teams scored 194 combined points in Game 1, but just 173 in Game 2.  Given the recent history of this series, I like for this game to stay well UNDER the 187-point total in Game 3.  The Bulls and Bucks have combined for 173, 194, 186, 158, 182 and 181 points in their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points.  That means we're getting roughly 8 points of value on this UNDER based on recent history, which is a lot.  Chicago is 14-3 UNDER following two consecutive home wins.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 192.5

The Key: The books have once again set the number too high in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the four meetings between these teams despite two of those games going to overtime.  They have combined for 187, 188 and 179 (Game 1) points in the three unders.  They were only at 164 combined points before overtime in Game 1.  While I expect this game to be a little higher scoring in regulation, I still believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER 192.5.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing two more more consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 206

The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days.  They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday.  After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston.  They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total.  They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests.  When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot.  The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn.  Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime.  Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings.  That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER.  Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period.  The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter.  They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points.  They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points.  That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch.  Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* Wichita State/Notre Dame Midwest Region *CA$H COW* on UNDER 138.5

The Key: This is a classic matchup off offensive versus defense.  Wichita State is one of the best teams in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, while Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the land in terms of offensive efficiency.  I look for the defense to win out in this one, especially considering both teams have had ample time to prepare for one another.  Wichita State only gives up 56.7 points on 39.7% shooting this season.   Notre Dame has really stepped up its game defensively of late, limiting seven of its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points.  The Irish combined with Northeastern for 134 points in the opener and with Butler for 131 points last round in overtime.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams with a total of 130 to 139.5 (Wichita State) in a game involving two slow-down teams that average 55 or fewer shots per game after 15-plus game, after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 48-13 (78.7%) since 1997.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203

The Key: Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  Boston is currently the No. 8 team in the East, just one-half game ahead of Charlotte.  It has three teams within 1.5 games of it for the 8th spot.  Miami is currently the 7th team in the East, just one game ahead of Boston.  It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  Miami and Boston have combined for 197 or fewer points in five straight meetings, averaging 181.6 combined points per game in those five contest.  The total has been set at 203 tonight, meaning that we're receiving roughly 21 points of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Nets/Hornets UNDER 197.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are both barely on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Hornets trail the Celtics by a half-game for the No. 8 seed, while the Nets are 1.5 games back.  It's safe to say that both of these teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  That's why I like the UNDER in this game tonight.  I believe there is value here because the last four meetings have all seen 201 or more combined points.  Charlotte is shooting just 39.2 percent while averaging 88.8 points in its last five games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 UNDER in its last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Jazz/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on UNDER 194.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been UNDER machines ever since trading Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City and inserting the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  They are 14-2 UNDER in their last 16 games overall despite having each of their last 15 totals set at 192.5 points or lower.  So, this 194.5-point total tonight between the Jazz and the Warriors is the highest a total has been set in a Utah game since February 11th.  There is clearly some value here with this UNDER today folks, especially with the Warriors missing one of their best players in Klay Thompson.  The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189

The Key: When you look at the head-to-head history of this series between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls and Pacers have combined for 182, 182, 189, 166, 170, 204, 187, 171 and 189 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  As you can see, eight of those nine meetings saw 189 or fewer combined points.  I'll take this 8-1 (89%) trend backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NCAAB "Total" Annihilator on Xavier/St. John's UNDER 147.5

The Key: The Xavier Musketeers will be squaring off against the St. John's Red Storm for the second time in just over a week tonight.  They lost the first meeting 70-78 at home in a game that saw 148 combined points.  All we need is one less point to be a winner in the rematch, and I like out chances.  These teams are obviously very familiar with each other after just recently playing on February 14th.  Familiarity favors defense almost every time.  It's easy to see that this total has been inflated when you consider Xavier is combining with its opponents for 140.7 points per game in Big East play, while St. John's is combining with its foes for 146.5 points per game in conference action.  Xavier is 32-13 UNDER in its last 45 February road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Musketeers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Red Storm's last six MOnday games.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

6* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN *CA$H COW* on UNDER 131

The Key: I look for an ugly, defensive battle between Syracuse and Louisville in this contest tonight.  Both Louisville and Syracuse struggle offensively, but both are elite defensively.  The Cardinals shoot just 43.4% on the season, including 30.5% from 3-point range.  The Orange shoot 44.0% on the season, and 31.7% from 3-point range.  Louisville gives up just 59.0 points per game on 37.6% shooting. Syracuse allows 63.1 points per game on 39.7% shooting.  The Cardinals are going to be without Chris Jones, who is their third-leading scorer at 13.6 points per game.  They are going to struggle even more offensively tonight without him.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Syracuse as they've combined for 111, 107, 126 and 124 points.  That's an average of 117.0 combined points per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Spurs OVER 203

The Key: The Orlando Magic have become a more up-tempo team in recent weeks.  It hasn't worked out very well for them at all, but it has been very good for "over" bettors.  The Magic are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall.  Their defense has been absolutely atrocious as they have allowed 101 or more points in 13 straight games.  Off a poor offensive performance last time out against the Clippers, look for the Spurs to get back on track offensively in this one.  The last time these teams met in San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-112 for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The OVER is 15-5 in Spurs last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5

The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under.