Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 49 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 121 h 35 m | Show |
20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49 The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks. Those aren't two particularly good offenses. And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them. They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry. The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings. They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one. The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass. They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett. The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes. He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score. These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory. Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G. I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here. The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco. The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games. The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night. |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 142 h 19 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Packers OVER 48 This game has shootout written all over it Monday night. The Detroit Lions showed they are going to be an 'over' team in Week 1. They allowed 41 points and a whopping 8.0 yards per play against the San Francisco 49ers. But they didn't quit, scoring 33 points on their own after a big 4th quarter behind Jared Goff. The Lions are going to have to play in shootouts all season because of their leaky defense. And things just got worse for them when they lost starting CB Jeffrey Okudah to a season-ending Achilles injury last season. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against this Detroit defense. The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints in Week 1. That's a Saints team that is starting Jameis Winston and without their best receiver in Michael Thomas. That was a very bad showing for the Packers defensively. It was also a poor showing offensively, but I have no doubt they will get it turned around in Week 2. There was clearly going to be some rust for them on offense after Aaron Rodgers sat out most of training camp. And that was a good Saints defense. This will be a much easier test for Rodgers and company this week. Both meetings between the Lions and Packers were shootouts last year. The Packers won 42-21 at home for 63 combined points. Green Bay also won 31-24 on the road for 55 combined points. I think we are getting a discount on this 48-point total here Monday night. The OVER is 7-1 in Lions last eight games following a loss. The OVER is 35-17 in Packers last 52 September games. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six vs. NFC North opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52 | 38-13 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52 The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season. The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game. The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year. There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season. The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL. The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves. It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank. The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game. They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again. The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value. The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall. The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games. The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-12-21 | Eagles v. Falcons OVER 48 | Top | 32-6 | Loss | -108 | 94 h 16 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48 I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season. But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season. Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season. They ranked 29th in total defense. Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season. The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season. He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch. I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst. Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too. The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here. So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him. The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show. He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season. Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach. He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons. Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson. So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded. The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker. The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta. The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5 | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5 The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game. The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week. The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout. The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5 The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively. For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense. Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5 This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season. I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another. They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses. Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER. It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland. And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games. They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points. The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well. These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well. The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game. So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by. Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too. The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game. In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early. This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games. Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest. Look for it to go well UNDER the number. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 52.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5 This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football. They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league. And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted. This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively. Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games. That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets. Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses. So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu. They allow 27.3 points per game on the season. But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense. Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game. He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season. He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year. And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler. The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points. That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game. This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 47 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 24 m | Show |
20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47 The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season. They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense. The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game. Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good. In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season. The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season. I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back. The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening. The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders. They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season. Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley. And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL. I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 10 m | Show |
20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5 Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears. Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here. Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season. The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game. This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons. The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game. The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game. The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard. Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts. It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff. The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring. Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points. And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season. The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs. The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games. The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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12-01-19 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -116 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Cardinals OVER 47 The Los Angeles Rams just got two weapons back last week in Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks. They weren’t in sync against the Rams Monday night, but they will be in sync against this putrid Cardinals defense. Look for the Rams to get back to being the old Rams offensively this week. Not only have the injuries held their offense back, but they’ve been up against three straight good defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore. They now face an Arizona defense that gives up 28.8 points per game and ranks 31st in total defense in allowing 415.2 yards per game. Many offenses have gotten right against the Cardinals this season. Indeed, the Cardinals have allowed 28-plus points in four straight games coming in. The Rams were exposed defensively by the Ravens Monday night. They gave up 45 points and 480 total yards. The Rams rushed for 285 yards on them, really softening up their defense. I think their defense will still be tired from that game because they are on a short week. Look for the Cardinals to expose them too. I expect this Arizona offense to be hitting on all cylinders coming out of their bye week with a first-year head coach. You know Kliff Kingsbury has a few extra tricks up his sleeve for the Rams in this one. And it’s an Arizona offense that has really improved as the season has gone along under Kyler Murray. Indeed, the Cardinals have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games overall. It should come as no surprise that the OVER has gone 5-2 in those games. And the Cardinals should get to 25 in this one, so with the Rams favored by 3, this game should easily exceed this 47-point total. After all, the Rams have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four meetings with the Cardinals. Plays on the OVER on any team (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 (79.5%) over the last five seasons. Arizona is 13-4 to the OVER in its last 17 games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Rams OVER 46.5 Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked wonders with yet another dual-threat quarterback in his first season with the Ravens this year. Roman was the coordinator for Colin Kaepernick back when he was decent, and he was the coordinator for Tyrod Taylor the last time the Bills made the playoffs. Now he has a QB in Lamar Jackson who is actually pretty good. The results cannot even be debated. Roman is the dual-threat QB guru. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.1 points per game and are 2nd in total offense at 428.6 yards per game. Jack is completing 66.3% of his passes for 2,258 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while averaging 8.1 per attempt. He also leads the team in rushing with 781 yards and six scores and is well on his way to winning the MVP award. The Rams were on fire offensively to start the season. They scored 27 or more points in four of their first five games. But then injuries took their toll to the offensive line and receivers, and they haven’t been as explosive since. However, they are much healthier on the offensive line now, and they get both Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods back this week. Jared Goff will now have his full compliment of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season. And the Rams should get back to putting up points in bunches. I know both defenses have played well of late, but a lot of that has to do with going up against some bad offenses. The Rams have played the Bears, Steelers and Bengals the last three weeks. The Ravens have played the Texans, Bengals and Patriots the last three weeks. This number is lower than it should be because the defenses have been playing well of late. I expect the offenses to win out in this showdown as these are still just average defenses and well above average offenses. The Rams are 9-0 OVER in their last nine home games after allowing 4 or fewer yards per play in their previous game. Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Baltimore) - an excellent offensive team that scores 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 42-13 (76.4%) since 1983. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -103 | 85 h 41 m | Show |
25* NBC Sunday Night PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Cowboys -3/UNDER 48 Reasons for Cowboys -3: The Dallas Cowboys have shown what they are capable of when fully healthy at the beginning of the season and here of late. They had some injuries on the offensive line and at receiver that cost them a three-game losing streak in which they lost two games by 2 points each. But in their five wins all five have come by double-digits. The Cowboys’ last two games have been very impressive. They beat the Eagles 37-10 as 3-point home favorites and held them to just 283 total yards while forcing four turnovers. The Eagles have gone on to blow out the Bills and the Bears since. Last week they won 37-18 at the Giants and held them to 271 yards while forcing three turnovers. They outgained the Giants by 158 yards. In fact, the Cowboys have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season, which is the sign of a dominant team. The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 436.8 yards per gam and 1st in yards per play at 6.7 per play. Dak Prescott is having a huge year, and Zeke running behind a healthy offensive line has been downright scary. Defensively, the rank 5th in scoring (17.8 points/game) and 6th in total defense (318.1 yards/game). They are outgaining teams by 118.7 yards per game. I just don’t trust Kirk Cousins in primetime games. Cousins is 6-15 in his career in primetime games. He is 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys. Dak Prescott is 15-5 in primetime games. Prescott is 5-0 straight up against Cousins. And Cousins is going to be without his security blanked in Adam Thielen, who reaggravated his hamstring injury last week against the Chiefs. The Vikings managed just 308 total yards against a bad Chiefs defense last week in an upset loss against Matt Moore. The Cowboys are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming to the Packers. It was a fluky loss as the Cowboys outgained the Packers by 228 yards. The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five November games. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday. Reasons for UNDER 48: Both the Vikings and Cowboys love to run the football and play at slow paces while controlling time of possession. The Vikings are 3rd in the NFL in rushing offense at 153.0 yards per game, while the Cowboys are 4th at 149.2 yards per game. Running the ball will keep the clock moving and benefit the UNDER in this game. Both defenses have been great at stopping the run this season. The Vikings are 8th against the run, allowing 95.8 yards per game. The Cowboys are 10th against the run, yielding just 97.2 yards per game. Yards will be harder to come by on the ground for both teams than they’re accustomed to. Both teams have elite defenses. The Vikings are 4th in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game, while the Cowboys are 5th at 17.8 points per game allowed. The Cowboys are 6th in total defense at 318.1 yards per game, while the Vikings are 8th at 320.9 yards per game. These are the two best defenses that both offenses will have faced this season with the exception of perhaps when the Cowboys played the Saints on a road, a game that saw 22 combined points in a 12-10 victory by New Orleans. The best defense Minnesota has faced was Chicago, and that game also saw 22 combined points in a 6-16 road loss to the Bears. Kirk Cousins has just been awful in primetime games and and against the Cowboys, and you can look above to see those records. And he’s going to be without Adam Thielen, taking away what I believe is the most important weapon on the Vikings because he is Cousins’ security blanket on 3rd downs. The Cowboys can focus their attention on stopping Stefon Diggs now. Their next-leading receiver after Diggs, Thielen and Dalvin Cook is Irv Smith Jr. who has just 19 receptions for 207 yards this year. Minnesota is 20-8 UNDER in its last 28 games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Dallas is 13-4 UNDER in its last 17 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Mike Zimmer is 9-2 UNDER as a road dog of 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings. The UNDER is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last fie meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -118 | 121 h 45 m | Show |
25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Falcons OVER 53.5 Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game between the Rams and Falcons Sunday played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. It’s perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair between two of the better offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in the league. The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 391.3 yards per game. The Rams are 12th in total offense at 370.8 yards per game. The Falcons are 26th in total defense, giving up 388.8 yards per game. And the Rams are 12th in total defense at 346.8 yards per game. The Falcons are giving up 31.0 points per game this season. It’s like their defense has quit, but they have also been hit hard by injuries. The Falcons have been particularly bad defensively the last two weeks. They gave up 53 points to the Texans and 34 points to the Cardinals. The Rams started the season pretty well defensively against some bad offenses, but they have been very poor defensively the last three weeks. They gave up 55 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Seahawks and 20 to the 49ers for an average of 35.0 points per game. I expect both offenses to top 28 points in this one, and likely to get into the 30’s with the winner scoring 40-plus. The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and he should play this week. But they also traded away CB Marcus Peters, lost their best corner in Aqib Talib to a rib injury, and lost one of their best pass rushers in Clay Matthews to a broken jaw. That helps explain why their defense has been so poor. Offensively, they should get back Todd Gurley from injury this week, who they didn’t have against the 49ers. The Falcons are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively as they are without S J.J. Wilcox, DT Michael Bennett, S Keanu Neal and S Johnathan Cyprien. They could also be without CB Desmond Trufant and CB Blidi-Wreh-Wilson, who are both questionable. These secondary injuries basically give them no chance of stopping anyone. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season as the Falcons are consistently playing from behind. Fortunately, they have stayed almost 100% healthy on offense and have a ton of playmakers for Ryan. The Rams are 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games after possessing the ball for 26 or fewer minutes and gaining 13 or fewer first downs in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in Rams last six games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta with combined scores of 55, 58, 64 and 51 points. The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 46 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
20* Lions/Packers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 46 This total seems a little high for two teams with suspect offenses up against two improved defenses. Plus it’s a division rivalry, so these teams are very familiar with one another. I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that stays UNDER the combined total of 46 points. It also helps that it’s going to be cold out with temperates expected to be 34 degrees Monday night. You would be hard-pressed to find a defense that is as improved as much as the Packers are this season. They are only giving up 18.6 points per game. They have made some great additions in the secondary throughout the draft, and also acquired some impressive free agents up front. They have been great against the pass but poor against the run this season. The good news for the Packers is that the Lions aren’t a team that runs the football very well as they averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this year. I expect the Lions to try and utilize their ground game more in this one, which will keep the clock moving. They do average 31 rush attempts per game, which is way up from normal for them as they try and get their renewed run game going with consistency. It just hasn’t worked out very well for them. The Lions are scoring 24.2 points per game this year, but they have played basically all soft defenses in the Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs. This will easily be the best defense they have faced yet. The Packers have struggled offensively, averaging 23.8 points per game but only 337 yards per game. Life gets much more difficult for the Packers this week as they have a ton of injury concerns on offense. They will be without star WR Devante Adams, who is quickly thrusting himself in among the Top 5 receivers in the game. They could also be without RB Jamaal Williams and C Corey Linsley in this game. I believe the Lions can slow them down, especially without having to deal with Adams. Detroit is 32-16 UNDER in its last 48 road games after allowing 30 points or more last game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a bye week. The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a loss. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Green Bay) - after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games, a good team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Ravens OVER 45.5 Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman is definitely the dual-threat QB whisperer. Before he arrived in Baltimore he turned Colin Kaepernick into a star in San Francisco, and more impressively yet helped Tyrod Taylor guide the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back. Now he’s working his magic on Lamar Jackson. The Ravens were vanilla on offense in the preseason and saving their real offense for the regular season. Well, that ‘real’ offense exploded for 59 points last week against the Dolphins. The Ravens racked up 643 total yards. Jackson had the best game of his career, completing 17-of-20 passes for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns. The scary part is he only ran the ball three times. This Ravens’ offense is the real deal, and they are playing at a faster tempo this year, which will certainly be beneficial to ‘OVER’ bettors. Speaking of fast tempos, the Arizona Cardinals average a play nearly every 20 seconds, which was the fastest pace any NFL team played at last week. Trailing 24-6, they sped up the pace even more and actually came back to tie the game and force overtime behind some brilliant play from Kyler Murray. They had 387 total yards against the Lions and most of those game in the 2nd half. Look for head coach Kliff Kingsbury to realize that the faster pace worked, and to try and utilize it against the Ravens. The Ravens should be able to score at will on this soft Arizona defense. The Lions had 477 total yards against the Cardinals last week, and that’s a below average Detroit offense. The Cardinals simply lack talent on this side of the ball, and they are without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, two very good cornerbacks they were expected to rely on coming into the season. This Arizona defense is also probably gassed after playing an overtime game. Baltimore lost so many key players on defense in the offseason. They lost arguably their four best players in LB C.J. Mosley, LB Za’Darius Smith, LB Terrell Suggs and FS Eric Weddle. And now they are down two cornerbacks in Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young due to injury. Arizona likes to go 4 wide, so the one position you don’t want to be short on is cornerback. Arizona should have plenty of success offensively against this short-handed secondary as well. Get ready for plenty of offensive fireworks in this battle between two of the most exciting new offenses in the league today. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 49.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Bucs/Panthers NFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 49.5 I expect a low scoring game in this division rivalry between the Panthers and Bucs tonight. Both teams are coming off losses that can be 100% attributed to turnovers. Look for both teams to have conservative game plans and to focus more on taking care of the football than anything, which will help lead to the UNDER. The Bucs were dreadful offensively against the 49ers last week. They managed just 17 points and 295 total yards while committing four turnovers. Jameis Winston threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Their defense actually played well in giving up just 256 total yards to the 49ers in the loss. The Panthers had 343 total yards against a mediocre Rams defense. And they were very pass-happy as they were trying to come from behind the entire game. That led to three turnovers, which also set up some easy scores for the Rams. Their defense was actually decent in holding a high-powered Rams offense to just 349 total yards. With a total of 49.5 here, the Panthers and Bucs have gone UNDER that number in six of their their last seven meetings, and they are 12-2 to the UNDER 49.5 in their last 14 meetings. They have combined for 48 or fewer points in 12 of those 14 games. I think there’s some serious value on the UNDER tonight. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucs last seven games overall. The UNDER is 12-4 in Bucs last 16 games off a double-digit home loss. The UNDER is 19-9 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Carolina. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 15 m | Show |
20* Steelers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49 These are two teams that rely on their defenses more now that their quarterbacks are aging. The Patriots were dominant in the playoffs last year defensively and gave up just 20.4 points per game, including 17.9 points per game at home. They return almost everyone on defense and upgraded on that side of the ball through the draft as well. The Steelers were among the league leaders in defense last year giving up 22.5 points and 327.4 yards per game. They have studs at all three levels of their defense in Cameron Hayward, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush and Joe Haden. It’s a very young defense that is only getting better. The Patriots lose both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan. It’s well documented that Tom Brady puts up much better numbers with Gronk than without him. So there will be a transition period here, especially with his replacement in Ben Watson suspended for the start of the season. And Roethlisberger loses both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Losing Brown really hurts as despite being a distraction, he’s still arguably the best receiver in the league. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Last year, the Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at home for 27 combined points. And we are getting a total here of 49, which is 22 points more than they combined for last year. I think there’s value in the UNDER as both offenses will be rusty to start, which will be the case across the league just as it was with the Packers and Bears Monday night. The UNDER is 6-1 in Steelers last seven vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 road games. The UNDER is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games overall, including 4-1 in their last five home games. Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER in road games against AFC teams over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Vikings UNDER 47 The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the best defenses in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over. That was the case again last season as they ranked among the league leaders in giving up 21.3 points and 309.7 yards per game, including 19.6 points and 268.2 yards per game at home. The Vikings didn’t get the boost from Kirk Cousins they wanted last year. They scored just 22.5 points per game and Cousins struggled down the stretch. A big problem was the play calling, which is why Zimmer brought in a new offensive coordinator. He wants to run the ball more and take pressure off Cousins, which will make them more of a ball control offense that controls time of possession and shortens games. It makes sense to use that strategy and lean on their defense, which is their strength. The Falcons have a good offense and a lot of weapons. They should be pretty solid on that side of the ball again. But they were terrible defensively last season due to all their injuries. They get back three key starters on defense that missed at least half the season last year. I expect the Falcons to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL now. The last two meetings in this series have been defensive battles won by the Vikings. Minnesota won 20-10 in 2015 for 30 combined points. The Vikings also won 14-9 in 2017 for 23 combined points. It’s clear that Zimmer has the Falcons figured out. And I expect both offenses to be rusty in Week 1 due to a lack of playing time for their starters in the preseason. Minnesota is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games during the first two weeks of the season. Zimmer is 24-11 UNDER in dome games as the coach of Minnesota. Zimmer is 40-23 UNDER against NFC opponents as the coach of the Vikings. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks UNDER 56 | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Chiefs/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 56 As the weather has gotten colder, games have become more and more low scoring. And it’s expected to be in the 40’s in Seattle tonight with a 40% chance of rain as well. While the weather is a big factor to these lower scoring games at the end of the season, the fact that both teams have so much film on one another is ultimately the bigger factor. It’s just easier on the defenses to stop opposing offenses because they know what to expect at this point in the season. The Chiefs have certainly become less potent offensively here down the stretch. They failed to top 28 points in each of their last two games, and thy were held to just 294 total yards by the Chargers last week. Now, a lot of this has to do with the weapons the Chiefs are missing. They don’t have anyone to replace what Kareem Hunt brings to the offense, and top backup Spencer Ware remains out. Also out is one of their top receivers in Sammy Watkins. Mahomes just doesn’t have the same weapons he did for most of the season as he was lighting up the NFL. I think the Seahawks can control the pace of this game with their running game, which has been one of the best in the NFL. They have rushed for 154 or more yards in 10 of their last 11 games, while passing for 242 or fewer yards in all but one game this season. They have been held to less than 205 or fewer passing yards in nine of their 14 games this year, and 217 or fewer in 11 of 14. Their offensive scheme keeps the clock running, and the Seahawks play at one of the slowest paces in the league. They know controlling time of possession is their best chance to beat the Chiefs tonight. The Seahawks have held six of their last 12 opponents to 17 or fewer points. They have a good defense that is giving up just 20.9 points per game on the season, and 19.7 points per game at home. And the Chiefs have actually improved quite a bit defensively here down the stretch themselves. They have held seven of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer points, and I certainly think they can do the same here against this slow, vanilla Seahawks offense. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or higher (Kansas City) - after going over the total by 35 or more points combined in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 54-23 (70.1%) since 1983. The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven Week 16 games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 53 The Chargers trail the Chiefs by one game in the AFC West standings. They can move into a first place tie with the Chiefs with a win Thursday night. It’s safe to say this game will be played close to the vest, especially in a bitter rivalry between these division opponents who are very familiar with one another. And I think the defenses win out in this one, so I’ll side with the UNDER. There’s several reasons to like the UNDER. The first and most important is that both teams are short on weapons right now. The Chargers are going to likely be without Melvin Gordon, and backup RB Austin Ekeler is questionable as well. For the Chiefs, they will be without starting RB Kareem Hunt and backup RB Spencer Ware. They’ll also be without WR Sammy Watkins, and fellow WR Tyreek Hill was noticeably hobbled with a heel injury against the Ravens on Sunday. Hill will play tonight, but on a short week I question how productive he’ll be. The Ravens were able to slow down the Chiefs last week behind one of the best defenses in the NFL. And the Chargers have the ability to do the same thing. This is a Chargers defense that is giving up just 16.7 PPG over their last nine games. Since getting Joey Bosa back from injury, they’ve been even better. Bosa and Melvin Ingram combine for arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. The Chiefs do not have a good defense, but it’s worth noting they have been able to hold teams in check in recent weeks as well. In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. I like their chances of holding the Chargers to 23 or fewer tonight as well. It’s going to be cold and there’s a chance of rain today in Kansas City. The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last nine vs. AFC West opponents. The Chargers are 10-1 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 9-0 UNDER In home games vs. teams who allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years. Los Angeles is 10-1 UNDER in December games over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 7-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins over the last two years. These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 81 h 2 m | Show |
20* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 45.5 This is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs. It will have a playoff atmosphere as the Seahawks are 7-5 and the Vikings are 6-5-1, both fighting to earn a wild card spot. In the case of the Vikings, they’re still alive to win the NFC North. I think this game is played close to the vest, and I think points will be very hard to come by as both of these defenses control this game. I also like the fact that both teams will be looking to run the football, which will keep the clock moving. The Seahawks have really become a run-heavy team, which has been key to their success. They have rushed 28 or more times in 10 consecutive games now. They have more rushing attempts than pass attempts in eight of those 10 games. Well, the Vikings have been a great defense overall, and especially against the run. They rank 7th in rushing defense, giving up just 99.2 yards per game on the ground. The Vikings are also tied for 2nd in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) allowed this season. They’ll be able to shut down this Seahawks offense. The Vikings know they need to run the ball more if they want to win this time of year. They have gotten pass-happy in recent losses to the Bears and Patriots. They should get back to their ground game this week knowing that the Seahawks are vulnerable against the run. In fact, the Seahawks are tied for last in yards per carry (5.1) allowed this season. The Vikings would be foolish not to run the ball more and keep that clock moving. The most recent meeting between these teams came in the playoffs in 2016. The Seahawks won that game 10-9 in Minnesota. The Vikings managed just 183 total yards in that game, while the Seahawks had just 226 total yards. I don’t think it will be that low-scoring again, but I do think this game stays well UNDER the 45.5-point total. The UNDER is 4-0 in Vikings last four games in December. The UNDER is 5-1 in Vikings last six Monday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Seahawks last eight Monday games. Seattle is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Minnesota) - an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1.0 YPP) after eight-plus games are 31-6 (83.8%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 55 m | Show |
20* Redskins/Eagles MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5 This is a division rivalry with a lot at stake. The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Redskins are just trying to stay afloat after a fast start to the season. I think this game will be played closer to the vest, and I certainly think it favors both defenses than both offenses, which is why I’ll side with the UNDER Monday night. Both offenses are really struggling this season. The Redskins rank 27th in total offense at 331.5 yards per game, while the Eagles are 19th at 353.9 yards per game. The Redskins are also 27th in scoring offense at 20.0 points per game, while the Eagles are 23rd at 20.9 points per game. Both of these teams are led by their defenses. The Redskins are 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game. The Eagles are 15th at 23.0 points per game, but I have no doubt they are better than that with the talent that’s on hand. And Philadelphia should have no problem shutting down a Washington offense that has been plagued by injuries along the offenses line, at the skill positions, and at quarterback. The Redskins are using backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury a few weeks back. And he’s getting no protection and terrible play from the skill positions outside of TE Jordan Reed due to injuries. Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. Philadelphia is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempts over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 9-2 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last three years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in over the last three years. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 59.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Saints OVER 59.5 Expect a shootout between the Falcons and Saints Thursday night. They combined for 80 points in their first meeting this season with the Saints winning 43-37 (OT) in Atlanta. They also combined for 941 total yards in that contest. I see no reason this game won’t play out the same way in the rematch. You already know the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.8 points per game. They should be able to handle their share. But they do give up 25.4 points per game at home, and the Falcons should be able to score their share of points as well. They are scoring 26.3 points per game on the season. The Falcons have scored at least 31 points in five of their last nine games overall. The Falcons are 20-7 OVER in their last 27 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Saints are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games off five or more consecutive ATS wins. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last four vs. NFC South opponents. The OVER is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games. The OVER is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games in a dome. Take the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 35 m | Show |
20* Giants/49ers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 43.5 The San Francisco 49ers are just 2-7 on the season while the New York Giants are 1-7. I like backing the OVER on teams with nothing to play for but pride in National TV games. It just seems as though the offenses take chances and there’s more big plays because they have nothing to lose. And the defenses aren’t prepared for it. I was certainly impressed with the 49ers’ offense against the Raiders last week with Nick Mullens making his first start. They racked up 34 points and 405 total yards against the Raiders. Mullens went 16-of-22 for 262 yards and three touchdowns. He’s from Southern Miss, just like Brett Favre, who is one of his biggest fans. He’s out to prove that he belongs in this league. The Giants’ offense has held them back so far. And you know that offensive-minded head coach Pat Shurmur doesn’t like what he’s seen so far. So the Giants come off a bye week, and I fully expect them to have a bunch of new wrinkles on offense. They have the two best playmakers on the field in Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley. They should be able to come through with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this 49ers defense. The 49ers are giving up 26.6 points per game while the Giants are giving up 25.6 points per game this season. The 49ers are 6-0 OVER off a non-conference games over the last two seasons. They are combining with their opponents for 54.0 points per game in this spot. The OVER is 18-5 in Giants last 23 games after allowing more than 15 rushing yards in they previous game. The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games following a win. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45.5 | 3-34 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
15* Raiders/49ers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5 We have the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers against the 1-6 Oakland Raiders Thursday night. It’s two teams who have little to play for but pride the rest of the way. And I certainly like backing OVERS in games when this is the case. The offenses almost always show up in these primetime games between bad teams, but whether or not the defenses show up is another story. And it’s not like either of these two teams have played much defense up to this point, especially Oakland. The Raiders are giving up 31.1 points and 407.4 yards per game this season. The 49ers are allowing 29.5 points and 364.4 yards per game. Both offenses have actually been pretty good. The Raiders are averaging 369.7 yards per game and the 49ers 348.2 yards per game. Derek Carr is still having a solid season, and with the Raiders losing Marshawn Lynch, he’s actually had to throw more. That means more points and more clock stoppages without the threat of a running game. The 49ers have put up some very good offensive showings against the Chargers and Packers even with CJ Beathard at quarterback. They had 27 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Packers. They did not play well against the Rams or Cardinals in the other games that Beathard has started, but now they are up against the worst defense they’ve faced this season in the Raiders tonight. They should have one of their best offensive outputs of the season. I realize the 49ers have some injuries on offense, and the Raiders traded away Amari Cooper, but I’m not worried. The Raiders have such a bad defense that even though they’re healthy they still can’t stop anyone. And the 49ers have worse injuries on defense than on offense. They are missing SS Jaquiski Tartt and starting LB Reuben Foster, not to mention CB Richard Sherman is questionable. Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (San Francisco) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. The OVER is 18-6-3 in Raiders last 27 games in November. The OVER is 8-0 in Raiders last eight games in Week 9. The OVER is 8-3 in 49ers last 11 games overall, including 4-1 in they last five home games. Take the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-28-18 | Ravens v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44 I’m shocked to see a total this high between two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens. I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup Sunday in what will be a good old-fashioned defensive battle. The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game allowed. They are also 1st in total defense at 280.6 yards per game allowed. The Panthers are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game, and 13th in total defense at 355.3 yards per game. Both of these teams like to run the football and both have suspect quarterback play and weapons. The Ravens have been a lot worse offensively on the road than at home. They are scoring just 19.7 points per game on the road this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Ravens last five games overall. They have seen 41 or fewer combined points in four of those five games. The only exception was the 47 points against New Orleans last week, but that game still stayed UNDER the 49-point total. And that’s the Saints, not the Panthers, a team with a better defense but a lot worse offense than New Orleans. The UNDER is 35-14-2 in Ravens last 51 games after gaining more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons OVER 54 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 14 m | Show |
25* MNF PARLAY OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +6/OVER 54 Reasons the Giants Cover: The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 13-34 home loss to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football last week. The betting public wants nothing to do with them now, so this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on them catching more points than they should be at Atlanta this week. It also means the Giants get extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. I like backing teams with extra prep time because it is a huge advantage in the NFL. It gives their players time to heal up, and the coaching staff more time to game plan for the opponent. And that 13-34 loss to the Eagles was very misleading. The Giants actually outgained the Eagles by 22 yards in that contest, so there’s no way they should have lost by 21. In fact, the Giants are only getting obtained by 9.7 yards per game on the season. That shows me that they are way better than their 1-5 record would indicate. And with how bad the NFC East has been this season, they still have hope to make a run and win the division. The Falcons cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number right now. They are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season. Their two wins were somewhat fortunate as they beat a banged-up Panthers team 31-24 at home with Carolina having a chance to tie on the final drive. Then last week they got a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant with just over a minute left to take a 34-29 lead over the Bucs, and then their defense held in the red zone to save the game. They covered as 3-point favorites, and I think they are getting too much respect for that win. Well, Bryant ruptured his hamstring making that 57-yarder, and he has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years. Add him to the laundry list of injuries for the Falcons now. Also add Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, two of their three best receivers who left that Bucs game with injuries. Both are probable to play this week but won’t be at 100%. And Devonta Freeman remains out with a foot injury. The real issue for the Falcons right now is injuries to their defense. They have lost three starters to season-ending injuries in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen. Plus, fellow starter Grady Jarrett has missed the last few weeks with an ankle injury and is questionable to return this week. They simply haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 32.0 points and 417.5 yards per game. They can’t be trusted to cover this 6-point spread with that defense. Their defense will make even Eli Manning look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. Reasons for the OVER: The OVER is 5-0 in Falcons last five games overall. They have combined for 55, 80, 73, 58 and 63 points in their last five games, respectively. That’s an average of 65.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than this 54-point total. Also, playing the OVER on Monday Night Football games when the home team has a bye next week is 39-12 in the last 51 tries. This is a Falcons defense that has been lit up for 37.5 points and 458.5 yardsper game over the last four weeks. Saquon Barkley had a monster game against the Eagles last week with 229 yards (130 rushing, 99 receiving) from scrimmage. He will have a field day against this Atlanta defense. And the Giants aren’t short on playmakers outside with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. The problem for the Giants on offense up to this point is that they’ve played arguably the toughest schedule in the entire NFL, and certainly the toughest schedule of opposing defenses to this point. They’ve played the Jags, Cowboys, Texans, Saints, Panthers and Eagles. Five of those six defenses are elite, while the Saints have been playing great on that side of the ball of late. This will be the worst opposing defense the Giants have faced by far, and it should lead to their biggest scoring output of the season. And they still managed 27 points at Houston and 31 points at Carolina in their last two road games, so they have proven their offense can travel. Obviously I don’t want the Falcons scoring too much so that the Giants can cover the +6. But I do think they’ll come close to their season averages of 27.8 points and 397 yards per game in this one. I’m not naive enough to think the Giants will shut them down because the Falcons do have one of their best offenses in the league. My best guess is that the Giants win this game in the 31-28 neighborhood. Note: I don’t recommend betting parlays often because they are not good bets. Make sure to bet both plays separate at the normal 25* amount. Whether or not you parlay is up to you. But I plan on going 2-0. Bet the Giants and the OVER. |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
20* 49ers/Packers MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on OVER 46 I think this total is lower than it should be Monday night between the Packers and 49ers. And a big reason for that is because the perception is that both of these offenses struggled in their last games, but the reality is that both of them moved the football at will, it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. The Packers had 521 total yards against the Lions last week, including 423 passing, yet only managed 23 points. Well a big reason for that was they had to settle for a bunch of field goals, and Mason Crosby missed three field goals and an extra point, which is basically 10 points off the board that they would have had otherwise. For the 49ers, they had 447 total yards against the Cardinals, including 300 passing, but only got 18 points out of it. Their demise were the five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. I have to think that both offenses will fare better on the scoreboard this week if they continue moving the ball like they did last week, especially against these two weak defenses. Both teams have all kinds of injuries on defense right now. The Packers lost DE Muhammad Wilkerson to a season-ending injury. Starting CB Devon House is out, as is starting ILB Jake Ryan. Fellow OLB Nick Perry is questionable, and CB’s Breshaud Breeland, Kevin King and Jaire Alexander is questionable. For the 49ers, they could be without starting FS Jimmie Ward, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. The 49ers are already giving up 29.2 points per game this season. The Packers should have no problem moving the football and scoring points on them. This is an elite Packers offense that is averaging 401 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 338 yards per game. They have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses, and the 49ers may have the worst defense that they’ve faced yet. I know Jimmy G is out with a season-ending injury, but the 49ers have had no problem moving the ball with CJ Beathard at quarterback. He led the 49ers to 27 points and 364 total yards against the Chargers in his first start two weeks ago. Then he led them to 447 total yards against a good Arizona defense last week. I expect the Packers to get to 30 and the 49ers to get to at least 20 in this game, which would easily take care of this 46-point total. The OVER is 10-2 in Packers last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 21-5 in Packers last 26 vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Green Bay is 9-1 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The OVER is 7-0 in 49ers last seven games on grass. The OVER is 4-0 in 49ers last four games overall. These last three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Eagles/Giants NFC East Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43.5 Both Philadelphia and New York have shown signs of life offensively in recent weeks. I think this is a pretty low total at 43.5 tonight for an NFL game that features two offenses with plenty of playmakers. Look for this game to sail OVER the total Thursday night. The Eagles now have three games with Carson Wentz at quarterback. They have been moving the football just fine with Wentz and should continue to do so against the Giants this week. They had 382 yards against the Colts, 432 against the Titans and 364 against the Vikings the last three weeks, respectively. And they have topped 20 points in all three games. The Giants got off to a rough start offensively this season against two great defenses in Jacksonvilleand Dallas. But they have been much sharper the last three weeks. They scored 27 with 379 total yards against Houston in Week 3. And last week they scored 31 with 432 total yards against Carolina. The biggest problem for the Giants has been their defense, which has given up at least 20 points in every game, including 33 each the last two weeks to the Saints and Panthers. And it’s not like the Eagles have been great defensively as they have given up 23, 26, and 27 points in three of their last four games coming in. The Giants can’t run the ball, but that’s not a problem because the Eagles can’t stop the pass, giving up 277 yards per game. The Eagles are good against the run, so the Giants won’t even test it that much. This is a game that will be played mostly through the air, especially with the injuries the Eagles have at running back. That will lead to more clock stoppages and ultimately more points. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The Giants and Eagles have combined for 63, 51, 43, 51 and 65 points in their last five meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 54.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points per game more than this 43.5-point total. There’s clearly value with the OVER here tonight. Take the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 52 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -108 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
20* Colts/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 52 I’m taking the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. I’m shocked it’s this high given the injuries to both teams, plus the fact that both offenses just really aren’t playing well at all this season. Andrew Luck’s favorite target in T.Y. Hilton is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Tight end Jack Doyle is also out with a hip injury. The Colts were missing their two starting tackles last week and could be without them again. I just don’t know how the Colts are going to be able to move the ball and score points here. I know Julian Edelman returns for the Patriots this week from a four-game suspension. However, they could be without Rob Gronkowski, who left last week with an ankle injury and is highly questionable. Either way this is a Patriots offense that just isn’t as explosive as in year’s past as they’ll have to rely more on defense this season to win games. New England is only averaging 23.7 points and 337.2 yards per game this season. The defense is giving up just 21.0 points per game, and came through with their best effort of the season last week in holding the Dolphins to just 7 points and 172 total yards. Expect more of the same here from this defense against the banged-up Colts. Indianapolis has been fine offensively in its two domed home games, but outside on grass has been another story. The Colts beat the Redskins 21-9 in Week 2 for just 30 combined points, and they lost to the Eagles 16-20 in Week 3 for just 36 combined points. Well, they managed just 281 total yards against the Redskins, and just 209 total yards against the Eagles. Give their defense credit for giving up just 14.5 points per game in their two road games as this is clearly an improved unit this season. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 49.5 or more in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential) are 38-12 (76%) over the last five seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Colts last six road games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Colts last nine games following a loss. The UNDER is 7-0 in Patriots last seven games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 13-6 in Patriots last 19 games overall. The UNDER is 10-2 in Colts last 12 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 146 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Steelers/Bucs ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 53.5 The Tampa Bay Bucs have been the surprise of the NFL through two weeks. Not for their defense, but for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the offense. They are 2-0 behind that offense that scored 48 points against a good Saints defense in Week 1 and followed it up with 27 points against a great Eagles defense in Week 2. The Bucs haven’t been able to run the football, so they’ve relied solely on Fitzpatrick, which is great for OVER bettors. He threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1. Then he threw for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns with an interception against the Eagles in Week 2. The Bucs are loaded with weapons at receiver in DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin. It’s nice to see this offense living up to their potential. The Bucs had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season. It appears that hasn’t changed this year, either. They are giving up 30.5 points and 443.5 yards per game, including 6.8 yards per play thus far. The Steelers should be able to take advantage and put up a big number here. Pittsburgh hasn’t had any problem moving the football on offense this season. The Steelers are averaging 29.0 points and 473.5 yards per game in their two games against the Chiefs and Browns. But their defense has been atrocious since losing Ryan Shazier to a season-ending injury last year. And it has carried over into 2018 as the Steelers are giving up 31.5 points and 388 yards per game this year. Star CB Joe Haden missed last week for the Steelers and could be out again this week. The Bucs are playing without LB Kendell Beckwith and CB Vernon Hargreaves, and they could be without both CB Brent Grimes and DT Vita Vea again this week. Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Pittsburgh) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first month of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last 10 seasons. The OVER is 7-1 in Steelers last eight games on grass. The OVER is 4-1 in Bucs last five vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 121 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Pats/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51.5 Expect plenty of offensive fireworks Sunday night inside the dome at Ford Field between the Patriots and Lions. This game should see touchdowns in bunches and should easily sail OVER this 51.5-point total. I rarely take overs this high, but this is a new NFL and this one I believe to be worth it. The Lions clearly have a woeful defense again this season. They are giving up 39 points per game and 6.3 yards per play through two games against the Jets and 49ers. Offensively, the Lions have no running game again this season, putting everything on Matthew Stafford’s shoulders. That’s good for OVER bettors. They are averaging 314 passing yards per game through two games. New England has played two tough defenses already to start the season in the Texans and Jaguars. That’s why the Patriots are only averaging 23.5 points per game thus far. But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and their offense will get right here. The problem for the Patriots dating back to the Super Bowl is that their defense just isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past. They gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Then they gave up 20 to a banged-up Texans offense in Week 1 before allowing a whopping 31 points and 481 yards to a bad Jacksonville offense in Week 2. Blake Bortles threw for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on them! Detroit is 17-4 OVER in its last 21 home games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Bill Belichick is 14-3 OVER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of the Patriots. The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 home games. Take the OVER in this game Sunday night. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 48.5 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 125 h 56 m | Show |
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5 Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level. Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses. I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs. The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch. I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings. The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games. They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game. Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration. New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries. They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive. And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall. The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch. The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game. They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game. Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season. The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall. Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons. Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well. Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5 The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon. It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well. The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home. Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year! They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively. The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games. They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games. Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated. And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game. Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota. The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch. They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall. Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total. Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch. They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games. They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games. They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall. They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday. The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points. Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 37 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night. After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons. I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night. It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points. That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total. And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another. Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings. Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game. The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play. They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball. The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games. But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit. They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals OVER 41 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41 |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47 |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5 |
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10-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 56 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56 |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 49.5 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 147 h 25 m | Show |
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5 |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47 |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 51 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 46 m | Show | |
15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51 |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 58.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 7 m | Show |
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Patriots UNDER 58.5 |
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12-26-16 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 97 h 31 m | Show |
25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5 |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 102 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44 |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43 |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
20* Bills/Seahawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43 |
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10-17-16 | Jets v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 79 h 13 m | Show |
20* Jets/Cardinals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47 |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 42.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Chiefs/Patriots AFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 42.5 |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 46 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 114 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Vikings/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 46 |
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01-03-16 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 47 | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Panthers UNDER 47 |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints OVER 50.5 | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 0 m | Show |
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Saints OVER 50.5 |
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10-22-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
25* NFL Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/49ers UNDER 42.5 |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -106 | 110 h 37 m | Show |
20* Chiefs/Packers MNF Side & Total Parlay on Kansas City +7/UNDER 49 |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 47.5 As you can see, four of their last five Super Bowls have seen 45 or fewer combined points, and three of those with 38 or fewer. In 2007, New England scored 36.8 points per game during the regular season, then 14 points in the Super Bowl. In 2011, New England scored 32.1 points per game during the regular season, then 17 points in the Super Bowl. The UNDER is 4-1 in Patriots last five Super Bowls. The UNDER is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Bill Belichick is 25-11 to the UNDER In road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points per game in all games he has coached since 1992. Belichick is 22-8 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots & Seahawks. Free Prop Bets (From Bovada): My Picks in BOLD Will there be a defensive or special teams TD scored in the game? |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 45 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -102 | 51 h 6 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45 |
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 47.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5 |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5 |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 41 | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41 |
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12-07-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 57 m | Show |
25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47 |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Steelers UNDER 48 |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots OVER 44.5 | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on OVER 44.5 |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. NY Jets OVER 44 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
20* Bears/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 44 |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 44.5 | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Bucs/Falcons NFC South Total DOMINATOR on OVER 44.5 |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
25* AFC North TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers/Ravens UNDER 44.5 |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 55 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Chargers/Broncos Divisional Round BAILOUT on UNDER 55
If the first two meetings between the Broncos and Chargers this season are any indication, oddsmakers have inflated this total set in their grudge match in the Divisional Round Sunday. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER folks. Denver beat San Diego 28-20 on the road on November 10 for 48 combined points. The Broncos were held below their season average with just 397 total yards, while the Chargers were held well below their season average as well with 329 total yards. The second meeting was even more of a defensive battle. San Diego beat Denver on the road by a final of 27-20 for 47 combined points on December 12. That was the most points that could have been scored considering the Chargers were held to 337 total yards, while the Broncos were limited to a season-low 295 yards. San Diego knows the formula to beating Denver it to control the ball, which is something it has done remarkably in those two games and all season. It held the ball for 38 minutes in the first meeting, and 39 minutes in the second. The Chargers will implement the same ball-controlled plan that that they did in the first two games to try and keep the ball out or Peyton Manning's hands as much as possible. The reason the Chargers have been able to control the ball so much down the stretch of the season is a new-found running game. Indeed, they have rushed for 144 or more yards in five straight games, including 196 against a very good Bengals' run defense last week. Philip Rivers no longer has to do it all as the running game has really held up its end of the bargain of late. San Diego's defense has also improved as the season has gone on. In fact, it has allowed 24 or fewer points in six straight games, including 17 or less in four of those. The Chargers are allowing a mere 16.3 points per game in their last six games overall. While there's no question that Denver has a potent offense, its defense has really got untracked over the last couple of weeks. The Broncos have allowed an average of just 13.5 points per game in victories over Houston and Oakland to close out the season. They held their own against the Chargers in the first two meetings, and I look for them to limit them to around 300 yards once again in the grudge match. The Chargers are 7-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season. The UNDER is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 vs. AFC opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in Broncos last five vs. AFC West foes. The UNDER is 9-4 in Chargers last 13 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 34 m | Show |
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Colts UNDER 46.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Wild Card Round. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. I was on the UNDER when these teams just met in Week 16 as the total was inflated then and closed at 47. Indianapolis won by a final of 23-7 in an important game for both teams. The Colts outgained the Chiefs 367-287 in the win as neither offense was dynamic. Now, the books have failed to adjust enough and have set basically an identical total to the first meeting. I believe we'll see a similar combined point total of 30 points between these teams. They are very familiar with one another after playing two weeks ago, which clearly favors a defensive battle. Both teams have been solid on defense as the Chiefs are yielding just 19.1 points per game, while the Colts are giving up 21.0 points per contest. Neither team has been dominant offensively this season as the Chiefs rank 21st in total offense at 337.3 yards per game, and the Colts rank 15th at 341.7 yards per contest. Indianapolis has really been hurting on this side of the ball since losing Reggie Wayne as well. Indianapolis and Kansas City have gone UNDER the total in five of their last six games overall. They have combined for 33 or fewer points in five of those six meetings. That's impressive when you consider that three of those came with Peyton Manning under center for the Colts. Kansas City is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Colts are 10-0 to the UNDER when playing on a Saturday since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Saturday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Colts last 4 Wild Card Games. These five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-29-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 43 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Rams/Seahawks NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 43
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is one of them. These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. Seattle ranks 1st in total defense at 280.7 yards per game and 2nd in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game. St. Louis is a respectable 17th in total defense at 350.1 yards per game. The Rams have the NFL's best run defense since Week 10, allowing just 68.0 yards per game over the past six games. I look for this game to follow a similar path to the first meeting between these teams in which Seattle won by a final of 14-9 in St. Louis. The Seahawks had not business winning that game as they were outgained 135-339 for the game, but took advantage of two turnovers to win an absolute defensive battle. This has been a very low-scoring series throughout the years. Seven straight and nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have seen 43 or less combined points. The Rams and Seahawks have combined to average just 32.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is 10.8 points less per game than today's posted total of 43. As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER given the low-scoring nature of this series. The UNDER is 21-7 in Rams last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 17-8-1 in Rams last 26 road games overall. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Rams last 26 December games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Seahawks last five December games. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 45 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Ravens/Bengals AFC North No-Brainer on UNDER 45
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is one of them. There is a lot at stake in this AFC North rivalry between Baltimore and Cincinnati to close out the season. The Ravens are playing just to get into the playoffs, while the Bengals are playing for playoff positioning. They could move up to the No. 2 seed if everything goes right, but they could also drop to the No. 4 seed with a loss, which would mean they'd have a tough first-round match-up with Kansas City. It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line given the circumstances. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league squaring off Sunday. Cincinnati ranks 5th in the league in total defense at 311.1 yards per game, while Baltimore is 9th at 331.7 yards per game. The Ravens, who rank 29th in total offense at 313.1 yards per game, will have a hard time moving the football and putting up points against a Bengals' defense that is allowing just 16.7 points per game at home this year. This has been a very low-scoring series to say the least. Ten of the last 12 meetings in this series have seen 40 or fewer combined points. Only two of those 12 games exceeded this total of 45 points. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 20-17 in overtime in their first meeting of the season on November 10. The Ravens won despite only gaining 189 total yards in the game. The UNDER is 17-3-1 in Bengals last 21 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The UNDER is 22-9 in Bengals last 31 December games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raven's last 10 vs. AFC North foes. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-29-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 46 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Falcons UNDER 46
The books have been forced to set the totals in the NFL much higher than they are comfortable with late in the season due to the OVERS cashing in so frequently up to Week 16. However, UNDER bettors really rolled in Week 16 due to the value as 11 of 16 games went UNDER the total. I believe there are many more inflated totals in Week 17, and this is my favorite of the bunch. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Carolina and Atlanta Sunday. Both teams have something to play for here as the Panthers have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, and would clinch a first-round bye with a win. Atlanta wants to send out Tony Gonzalez with one last victory in the final game of his career. Carolina ranks 1st in the league in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, and 2nd in total defense at 300.9 yards per game. It limited a high-powered New Orleans offense to just 13 points in a huge 17-13 win last week that put it in position to win the NFC South and a first-round bye. Atlanta hasn't played that great defensively this season, but I like its chances of being successful this week on that side of the ball. The Panthers rank just 25th in the league in total offense at 319.1 yards per game. Now, they are expected to be without leading wide receiver Steve Smith (64 receptions, 745 yards, 4 TD) due to a knee injury. For an offense that was already lacking weapons, this is a huge blow. These teams combined for 44 points in their first meeting of the season as the Panthers won 34-10 at home, outgaining the Falcons 373-289 in the process. I look for a much better effort from the Falcons defensively this time around given the circumstances, and I sill expect the Panthers to hold Atlanta in check again. Carolina is 40-14 to the UNDER off a win over a division rival since 1992. The Panthers are 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games overall. Carolina is 7-0 to the UNDER in its last seven games following a win. Atlanta is 6-1 to the UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 58 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Chiefs UNDER 45.5
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. To be fair, they had it right when they opened it at 41.5, but they have been forced to move it a full four points to 45.5 in some places due to so much action on the over. This has created a ton of line value for us to swoop in and catch the UNDER at a great number. I believe this line is an overreaction from Kansas City's huge point totals over the past two weeks against Washington and Oakland on the road. Those are two terrible defenses, and both the Redskins and Raiders gave the Chiefs a bunch of cheap points. Now, they'll be up against a playoff team, and the Colts aren't about to give them easy scores Sunday. Kansas City ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.2 points per game, while Indianapolis is a respectable 12th at 22.8 points per game. I look for both defenses to have their way with two below-average offenses this week. The Colts rank 22nd in total offense at 337.3 yards per game, and they just haven't been the same since losing Reggie Wayne. The Chiefs rank 17th in total offense at 341.3 yards per game. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 23-6 (79.3%) since 1983. Kansas City is 6-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% in the second half of the season over the past three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-15-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 44 h 24 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Packers/Cowboys OVER 48
The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL, and playing in perfect conditions in the dome at Cowboys Stadium, I fully expect both offenses to light up the scoreboard. The Cowboys give up 26.8 points and 426.8 yards per game to rank last in the league in total defense. They should never have gotten rid of Rex Ryan, but once again injuries have decimated them on this side of the football. Green Bay hasn't been much better, giving up 25.1 points and 369.4 yards per game to rank 21st in the league in total defense. The Packers have been at their worst on this side of the ball on the road, yielding 30.5 pints and 381 yards per game away from home. Both offenses have played well this season. Dallas ranks 3rd in the league in scoring offense at 27.5 points per game. It is putting up 34.0 points per game at home this season. Green Bay ranks 12th in scoring offense (24.3 points/game) and 5th in total offense (394.5 yards/game). The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' last six games overall. Five of those six games have seen 50 or more combined points, and all four games that were played in a dome went OVER the total. Green Bay has combined with two of its last three opponents for 50 or more points. This has been a very high-scoring series in year's past. The OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings overall. The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in offense-friendly Dallas dating back to 1993. Six of those nine meetings have seen 50 or more combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams UNDER 43 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 99 h 51 m | Show |
20* Seahawks/Rams ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 43
I look for this divisional showdown to be very low-scoring Monday night when the Seattle Seahawks visit NFC West rival St. Louis. It was tempting to take Seattle against the spread because of its dominant defense against St. Louis' poor offense, but instead I believe the value is with the UNDER in this contest. The Seahawks held the Cardinals to just 234 yards last week in a 12-point win in Arizona to continue their stellar defensive play. Seattle ranks 2nd in the league in total defense at 280.7 yards per game, and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game. I don't expect the Rams to be able to do much against this defense with the shape they are in offensively right now. St. Louis is in a world of hurt right now with the loss of starting quarterback Sam Bradford. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. You would be hard-pressed to find a team with a worse backup quarterback situation than the Rams. That's why they have signed Brady Quinn and Austin Davis this week. They were so desperate that they even put a call into Brett Favre. Instead, the Rams will be giving the ball to Kellen Clemens, who should be out of the league as he has never done anything to warrant being a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Rams rank 30th in total offense at 298.8 yards per game, and it |
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
20* Packers/Vikings NBC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5
The oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Sunday night game between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are limited offensively right now, and I look for the defenses to dominate this contest because of it. Plus, it's a division game, which means both teams are very familiar with each other. These division games are almost always more low-scoring than any other games. Green Bay has played UNDER the total in each of its last three games overall. It won 22-9 over Detroit, 19-17 at Baltimore, and 31-13 over Cleveland in its last three contests for an average combined score of 37.0 points per game. The Packers are playing without three of their top four receivers in Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. Aaron Rodgers and company simply cannot be as explosive without these three, and as a result they have relied more on the running game in recent weeks. What has really helped the Packers is a defense that has allowed less than 300 yards in three of the past four games. This stop unit is allowing only 13.0 points per game in the last three games overall, and should have great success against a lackluster Minnesota offense. The Vikings managed just 290 total yards in a 10-35 loss to Carolina before gaining a woeful 206 yards in a 7-23 loss to the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. As you can see, they are scoring just 8.5 points per game in their last two contests. The UNDER is 7-1 in Packers last eight games vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 4-0 in Packers last four October games. The UNDER is 7-2 in Vikings last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Given the state of both of these offenses, I look for a very low-scoring game tonight in Minnesota. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
20* Colts/Chargers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 50.5
I believe the recent OVER run on Monday Night Football has forced the oddsmakers to inflate tonight's total set. Each of the last three MNF games have gone OVER the number, and five out of six on the season. With the way the public likes to bet MNF as it is, the oddsmakers can not longer continue to take a pounding by setting the number too low. What I really like about this UNDER is that it's strength vs. strength, which clearly favors a defensive battle. Indianapolis ranks 5th in the league in pass defense, giving up just 201.4 yards per game through the air. San Diego features a very one-dimensional offense, ranking 3rd in the league in passing offense at 311.2 yards per game. I look for the Colts to slow down Philip Rivers in this one, especially with the pressure they'll get from the front four, including NFL sack leader Robert Mathis. San Diego has had one of the most underrated run defenses in the league over the last several years. It is strong at the point of attack again, allowing 117.2 yards per game despite going up against five offenses that average 127 yards per game on the ground. Stopping the run will be big considering the Colts rank 4th in the league in rushing offense at 142.0 yards per game. Five of the last six meetings between San Diego and Indianapolis have seen 50 or less combined points. The Colts and their opponents had combined for 44 or less points in each of their first four games of the season before a high-scoring affair with Seattle last week that ended with a final score of 34-28. The Colts were very fortunate to score 34 points considering they had just 317 yards of total offense in the game. I believe that misleading final score last week also has this total inflated. San Diego is 31-16 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992. The Colts are 12-3 UNDER against AFC opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Colts last 5 road games. The UNDER is 10-3 in Colts last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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09-23-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Broncos MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48.5
I expect a shootout tonight between the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos on ESPN's Monday Night Football. Denver should be able to score at will against this suspect Oakland defense. The Raiders will put up their fair share of points against this injury-and-suspension-plagued Broncos' defense. Denver leads the league in scoring at 45.0 points per game. It is also averaging 463.0 total yards per game behind the great play of Peyton Manning. The four-time league MVP is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Terrell Pryor has given this Oakland offense new life with his dual-threat ability. In fact, the Raiders are averaging a very impressive 356.0 total yards per game through their first two contests. Pryor is completing 64.2 percent of his passes, while also rushing for 162 yards thus far. Denver is giving up 25.0 points and 384.5 total yards per game. It remains without Von Miller, while Champ Bailey is questionable. Oakland is going to be without starting safety Tyvon Branch, which will make it even more difficult to defend Manning and company. The Broncos are 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games following a ATS win. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Broncos last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Denver is 6-0 OVER after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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09-15-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 44.5 | 3-29 | Win | 100 | 66 h 4 m | Show | |
15* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 44.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. I look for a defensive battle between these two bitter NFC West rivals who are two of the favorites to win the Super Bowl because of their defenses. Seattle finished 4th in the league in total defense (306.2 yards/game) and 1st in scoring defense (15.3 points/game) last season. San Francisco finished 3rd in the NFL in total defense (294.4 yards/game) and 2nd in in scoring defense (17.1 points/game) in 2012. Both defenses have arguably gotten stronger this offseason with the additions they have made. Given their familiarity with the opposing offenses having played them twice each year, I have no doubt that points will be hard to come by in this one. I look for a score similar to the 13-6 49ers' victory in the first meeting last season than the 42-13 Seahawks' victory in the second. Neither team gained more than 346 total yards in either meeting last year, so the offenses were held in check for the most part. Seattle just went off for 42 points in one of the meetings, which isn't even going to come close to happening again. The Seahawks were aided by a special teams touchdown in that one. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick had the element of surprise last year as each were in their first season as a starter. There is enough game tape out on both quarterbacks now that two top-notch defenses like these ones will be able to contain their respective opposing signal callers. Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - off a home win, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 37-13 (74%) since 1983. The UNDER is 7-0 in Seahawks last 7 September games. Their defense was in prime form last week in a 12-7 victory at Carolina. I look for a similar score in this Week 2 showdown as well. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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09-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins OVER 51.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
20* Eagles/Redskins MNF Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 51.5
Chip Kelly is a big reason why I believe this game will go OVER the total. After holding back in the preseason, you can bet Kelly and company will unleash their new offense full throttle Monday, and Washington may not be ready for it because it really does not know what to expect. Look for the Eagles' offense to try and run a play every 12 seconds on average. Washington was certainly vulnerable defensively last season. In fact, the Redskins finished 28th in the league in total defense, yielding 377.7 yards per game. It was also 22nd in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game allowed. Plus, Washington is missing some key pieces on defense once again as DE Jarvis Jenkins, LB Keenan Robinson, S Phillip Thomas, LB Rob Jackson, DE Adam Carriker and CB DeAngelo Hall are all expected to miss Monday |
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09-08-13 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 49.5 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
20* Giants/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49.5
I look for a low-scoring game in this NFC East rivalry between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys tonight. Both tams will be improved defensively from a year ago, and that will be on display in Week 1 Sunday. Both teams were crushed by the injury bug last year defensively. The Cowboys had six defensive starters miss time down the stretch, and DeMarcus Ware was playing on one arm. In the switch to the new 4-3, Tampa 2 scheme under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, I fully expect Dallas to give up fewer big plays and to be dominant in the red zone. This is one of the best linebackers corps and secondary's in the league, and then you have Ware wreaking havoc up front. The Giants made some nice moves on defense by bringing in free agents in DT Cullen Jenkins, DT Mike Patterson, LB Aaron Curry, ILB Dan Connor and CB Aaron Ross. They also added rookies in NT Johnathan Hankins and DE Damontre Moore. It's clear that they wanted to get stronger up front, and they have done that. All these new additions will be nice compliments to the tandem of Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck. New York is missing two starters along the offensive line in OT David Diehl and C David Baas. It will struggle to protect Eli Manning early and to open holes for David Wilson. Dallas has had offensive line problems every since Tony Romo took over as starter. It did little to address that need this offseason, so look for Romo to be scrambling for his life for four quarters in this one against a dominant New York D-Line. The Giants are 25-9 to the UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992. The UNDER is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in September. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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09-08-13 | Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 49 | 28-34 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Packers/49ers NFC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 49
The books have inflated this Week 1 total between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers due the shootout between these teams in the playoffs last year. Green Bay was not ready for Colin Kaepernick at all as the 49ers cruised to a 45-31 victory for 76 combined points. I'll gladly take advantage of this overreaction and back the UNDER in this contest Sunday. Green Bay has had all offseason to prepare for Kaepernick after having just one week to do so before their playoff showdown last year. I look for the Packers to do a much better job of containing him this time around. Also helping matters is the fact that the 49ers have gotten weaker on offense with the loss of leading receiver Michael Crabtree, and do-it-all TE Delanie Walker. San Francisco finished 2nd in the league in scoring defense (17.1 points/game) and 3rd in total defense (294.4 yards/game) last season. It has arguably gotten stronger on this side of the ball in the offseason with the additions of DT Glen Dorsey and CB Nnamdi Asomugha, as well as first-round pick Eric Reid, who is expected to start at free safety. The 49ers clearly have an answer defensively for Aaron Rodgers and company. Green Bay knows it cannot drop Rodgers back and let him throw 50 times on a regular basis this season. That's why it used a first-round pick on Alabama RB Eddie Lacy. I look for the Packers to become a much more balanced team offensively, which will lead to eating up more clock. Green Bay has to try to establish its running game so that the 49ers can't just pin their ears back and go after Rodgers. This will also benefit the UNDER. The Packers also had an underrated stop unit last year. In fact, they finished 11th in the league in total defense (336.8 yards/game) and 11th in scoring defense (21.0 points/game). This stop unit should be even better in 2013. C.J. Wilson, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji compose one of the best 3-4 defensive lines in the NFL. Look for outside linebackers Nick Perry and Clay Matthews to take shots on Kaepernick every chance they get when the 49ers decide to run the reed option. This is also a tremendous secondary featuring CB's Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, as well as safety's M.D. Jennings and Morgan Burnett. These teams are obviously very familiar with one another as this will be the 3rd time that they have squared off in the past year. I just believe that having all offseason to prepare for one another will make points much harder to come by. Last year's playoff total was set at 45 points, so the books have jacked it up to 49 because of that high-scoring affair. There's certainly some serious line value on this UNDER given these factors. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
25* NFL Season Opening TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Seahawks/Panthers UNDER 45.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. I look for a defensive battle between what are two of the best stop units in the league. Seattle ranked 4th in the league in total defense (306.2 yards/game) and 1st in scoring defense (15.3 points/game) last season. This is once again going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. Quietly, Carolina improved on this side of the ball last season, finishing 10th in the league in total defense (333.1 yards/game). The stop unit has only gotten stronger in the offseason with the additions of rookie DT's Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, as well as the healthy return of LB Jon Beason. These teams met last year in Carolina with the Seahawks prevailing by a final of 16-12 for 28 combined points. They held the Panthers to just 190 total yards, while being limited to 310 themselves. I look for a similar final score in the rematch in 2013 this Sunday. Both offenses have their worries, too. Percy Harvin is out for most of the season for Seattle, which means it will once again have a mediocre offensive attack. Carolina has failed to address its need at receiver, and it is still relying on DeAngelo Williams at running back. This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER On any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - terrible passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 64% or worse. Seattle is 27-9 UNDER in road games in September games since 1992. Carolina is 22-10 UNDER in home games in the first month of the season since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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09-05-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos OVER 48 | Top | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Broncos 2013 NFL Season Opener on OVER 48
I look for an absolute shootout between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens in the 2013 NFL season opener. Both teams should pick up right where they left off last season offensively, which each should also take a step back defensively for a number of reasons. The Broncos have only gotten more potent offensively this offseason. That |
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01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
20* Seahawks/Redskins NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46
The oddsmakers have inflated this total in this NFC wild-card game between the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Redskins. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I believe is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Both offenses have been playing well of late, which is the biggest reason for this inflated total. However, each offense runs into a hot defense, and defenses reign supreme more times than not in the playoffs. Seattle is allowing just 15.3 points/game this season, and it has given up 17 points or less in each of its last five contests. Washington has given up 21 or fewer points in three straight games while picking up three big wins in the process. The Seahawks are scoring 21.1 points/game while allowing 18.7 points/game on the road this season. That's an average combined score of 39.8 points/game. Washington is scoring 25.7 points/game and allowing 22.1 points/game at home this year for an average combined score of 47.8 points/game. Add 47.8 and 39.8 and divide by two and we get 43.8, which is closer to what this total should really be set at, so you can see where I'm getting the value at. This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) to the UNDER since 1983. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams against the total (WASHINGTON) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. I look for both of these rookie quarterbacks to focus on taking care of the football and not making mistakes, which won't put their defenses in bad positions. This will lead to a low-scoring affair and an easy cash on the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-16-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 43 | 50-17 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Seahawks/Bills NFL Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 43
This total has been inflated Sunday in the annual NFL game played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada. I look for a very low-scoring game between the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. The biggest reason this total is inflated is due to the Seahawks scoring 58 points last week against Arizona. The Cardinals had given up early into that game, and the Seahawks kept pouring on the points. They won't be putting up a big number on this improved Bills' defense this week. Buffalo has been playing tremendous on defense of late, limiting opponents to just 16.8 points/game in their last four contests. However, they have been poor offensively of late, scoring an average of only 19.5 points/game in their last four. Seattle features one of the best defenses in the league. After shutting out the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks are giving up just 15.5 points/game while ranking 3rd in the league in total defense at 301.2 yards/game allowed. The Seahawks are really not a good offensive team, especially when you don't factor in that Arizona game last week. Seattle is averaging just 17.0 points/game on the road this season, and it ranks just 21st in the league in total offense at 341.2 yards/game. Buffalo is 13-2 to the UNDER in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score in these games has been Buffalo 14.0 and its opponents 22.8 for a combined average of 36.8 points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-16-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-41 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucs/Saints OVER 53.5
The OVER in this game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints Sunday represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012-13 NFL season. I look for both teams to score 27-plus points to easily push the final combined score OVER the posted total by game's end. I look for a similar final to the 35-28 road victory by New Orleans in the first meeting between these teams on October 21st. Tampa Bay put up 513 total yards in the loss, including 411 passing. New Orleans wasn't far behind with 458 total yards in the win, including 377 passing. As you can see, these teams combined for 63 total points and 971 total yards. These are clearly two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New Orleans is allowing 29.2 points/game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 437.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay is yielding 23.7 points/game and ranking 28th in total defense at 389.8 yards per game. That bodes well for a high-scoring affair considering these are two of the best offenses in the league as well. New Orleans is scoring 26.8 points/game while ranking 3rd in total offense at 394.3 yards/game. Tampa Bay is putting up 27.2 points/game and ranking 13th in total offense at 356.8 yards/game. The Bucs are 6-0 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 7-0 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons. The Bucs are 6-0 OVER after playing a home game this season. Tampa is 6-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Saints are 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-02-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 44 m | Show | |
15* Eagles/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 43
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Sunday in this NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. I look for a similar final to the 38-23 game these teams played in their first meeting of the season on November 11th where 61 combined points were scored. Both defenses are surrendering big points this season. Philadelphia allows 25.6 points/game overall, while Dallas gives up 23.8 points/game, including 26.2 points/game at home this year. Both offenses rank in the top half of the league. Philadelphia is 14th in total offense at 357.2 yards/game, while Dallas is 9th at 375.6 yards/game. The Eagles are giving up 30.7 points/game in their last six contests, while the Cowboys are yielding 27.0 points/game in their last three. Dallas is 8-1 to the OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 58.4 points/game in this situation. The Cowboys are 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 25-2 (93%) system backing the OVER. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-26-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 41 | Top | 30-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
20* Panthers/Eagles ESPN Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 41
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles. The books and the betting public are overreacting here to the losses of Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy for the Eagles. Nick Foles and Bryce Brown will be taking their place, and I believe the Eagles still have one of the top offenses in the league with these two at the forefront. Philly ranks a very respectable 13th in the NFL in total offense at 361.8 yards/game. It will be up against a Carolina defense that ranks 18th in the league at 350.7 yards/game allowed, and one that is without several key players due to injury. The Panthers are giving up 24.3 points/game this season. The Eagles are giving up 25.2 points/game overall and 26.8 points/game at home. Cam Newton should have his way with a Philadelphia pass defense which has allowed a combined 143.6 passer rating over the past four weeks, surrendering 11 touchdown passes and making no interceptions. Carolina is 8-1 to the OVER in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are 12-3 to the OVER in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. The OVER is 9-2 in Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Eagles last 8 home games. The OVER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 games in Week 12. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 36.5 | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
20* Bears/49ers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 36.5
The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears feature two of the best defenses in the league. They will play part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in San Francisco on ESPN's Monday Night Football. The 49ers rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense at 14.1 points/game. They are also No. 2 in total defense at 292.1 yards/game. The Bears rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense at 14.8 points/game, just behind the 49ers. They are also No. 5 in total defense at 306.7 yards/game. Chicago ranks just No. 26 in total offense at 316.0 yards/game. They were already going to have trouble moving the ball and scoring points on the 49ers even if Jay Cutler was healthy. Now, with Cutler out and Jason Campbell in, the Bears' offense will be lucky to reach double-digits in points. The 49ers had been doing pretty well offensively at No. 12 in the league at 365.7 yards/game. That all changes tonight as they will also be without their starting quarterback, Alex Smith. With Colin Kaepernick under center, they will be much more conservative and looking to run the football even more. The 49ers are 16-4 to the UNDER against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-8 in Bears last 27 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. PS - I put this total in before the news that Alex Smith would be out. Obviously, I like the UNDER even more with him out, and I like it down to 34. |
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11-15-12 | Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
20* Dolphins/Bills AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 46
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this Thursday night game between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. These are two desperate teams in need of a victory to get back in the playoff hunt in the AFC, and I look for it to be a defensive battle partly because of it. Another reason I believe this will be a low-scoring affair is that fact that these are two of the worst offenses in the league. Miami is scoring just 19.2 points/game while ranking 25th in total offense (323.9 yards/game). Buffalo's offensive numbers are a bit inflated because of two games against the Patriots, who it always seems to play in high-scoring games with. It scored 28 points and gained 438 total yards in the 1st meeting, and it scored 31 points while gaining 481 total yards in the second. The Bills still rank just 14th in total offense (359.1 yards/game) despite those two explosions against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. These teams have combined for 45 or less points in four of the last five meetings, which would make for an 80% system pertaining to tonight's total set of 46. Dating back further, nine of the last 12 meetings have seen 45 or fewer points. Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Dolphins are 6-0 to the UNDER in November games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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11-05-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. New Orleans Saints OVER 52 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 51 m | Show |
25* Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Saints OVER 52
This game has shootout written all over it. We have two of the most explosive offenses in the league going at it inside at dome down in New Orleans. I expect a lot of touchdowns and few defensive stops in this one. New Orleans is scoring 27.1 points/game overall and 29.0 points/game at home. It ranks 5th in the league in total offense (388.6 yards/game), including 1st in passing offense (316.0 yards/game). Brees will be able to pick apart a Philly defense that underwent a coordinator change last week, and it didn't help. The Eagles allowed 30 points to the Falcons in a 30-17 home loss. Philly ranks as solid 13th in the league in total offense (363.6 yards/game). It is in line for its best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up 30.9 points/game this season while ranking 32nd in total defense (475.4 yards/game). Each of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 51 or more combined points. They combined for 70 points in a 48-22 Saints' victory in their most recent meeting in 2009. They always tend to play in high-scoring games when they get together, and they should easily eclipse this 52-point total early into the 4th quarter. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 10-1 in Saints last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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09-09-12 | Miami Dolphins v. Houston Texans UNDER 43 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 114 h 40 m | Show | |
15* AFC Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins/Texans UNDER 43
The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans will play part in a defensive battle Sunday in Houston. Oddsmakers have clearly set the bar too high in this one, and now it's time to take advantage by siding with the UNDER. Miami managed just 20.6 points and 317 total yards per game last season. Its offense has actually gotten worse this offseason. The Dolphins will be going with a rookie at quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, and he'll be working with the worst receiving corps in the league, hands down. The Dolphins were actually pretty solid defensively last season, yielding 19.6 points per game. They were extremely stingy against the run, finishing third in the league in rushing defense (96 yards/game) while allowing just 3.7/carry. That's huge considering Houston was one of the best rushing teams in the league last year. The Texans have a solid offense, but the reason they made the playoffs last season was their defense. Houston finished No. 2 in the league in total defense (286 yards/game) and No. 4 in scoring defense (17.4 points/game). I look for Houston to hold Miami to 14 points or less in this one, which will pave the way for the UNDER. Miami is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 33.7 points per game in this situation. The UNDER is 11-3-1 in Dolphins last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 21-8 in Dolphins last 29 road games. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-08-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 61 h 4 m | Show |
25* NFL Wild Card Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Giants UNDER 47.5
This game has defensive battle written all over it. Both defenses are hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. The Falcons forced four turnovers and only allowed 294 total yards to the Bucs in their season finale. The Giants have allowed exactly 14 points in each of their last two games against the Jets and Cowboys. Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 13-3 to the UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. The UNDER is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. the UNDER is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-01-12 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots OVER 49.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Patriots OVER 49.5
The Bills and Patriots combined for 65 points in a 34-31 victory by Buffalo in their first meeting. I have no doubt they will combine to top 50 in the rematch. The Bills are coming off a 40-point performance against the Broncos, and the Patriots are averaging 30.9 points/game. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-24-11 | NY Giants v. NY Jets UNDER 46.5 | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 3 m | Show | |
15* Jets/Giants NFL Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
In a rivalry game like this, I will side with the UNDER nine times out of 10. That's especially the case Sunday as oddsmakers have set the bar too high in the Jets vs. Giants game. The Jets play tremendous defense, but their offense is not built for putting up big points. The Jets rank just 26th in total offense (306.0 yards/game) and an outstanding 7th in total defense (317.9 yards/game). They like to play a possession game, controlling the clock with their running game and forcing their opponents to put together long, sustained drives defensively. With the temperatures getting colder by the day, the running game always becomes more important late in the year. While the Giants have not ran the ball with much success this season, there's no question it is going to be a bigger part of their offense this week. They know they cannot let Eli Manning sit back and get killed by this blitz-happy Jets' defense. The Jets are 13-2 to the UNDER in their last 15 games after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game. Both teams had poor defensive performances last week, which has certainly forced the oddsmakers to inflate this number. I see both defenses rebounding in a big way this afternoon against two one-dimensional offenses. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-15-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
20* Jaguars/Falcons NFL Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5
The UNDER in this game between Jacksonville and Atlanta is showing excellent value Thursday. Both of these teams played in shootouts last week, which is a rarity for each. Because of the public perception from those shootouts, oddsmakers have been forced to set this total a little too high tonight. Jacksonville is 10-3 to the UNDER in all games this season. The Jaguars are only scoring 14.8 PPG and allowing 19.4 PPG on the year. They are scoring 11.2 PPG and allowing 17.7 PPG on the road this season. The Jaguars rank 32nd (last) in the league in total offense (260.1 yards/game) and 4th in total defense (302.3 yards/game). The Jaguars beat the Tampa Bay Bucs 41-14 at home last week. It was, by far, their largest scoring output of the season. The Jagus have scored 20 points or less in 12 of 13 games this year. They had two defensive touchdowns while also forcing seven turnovers against the Bucs, which led to their big scoring output. They aren't going to get those same gifts against Atlanta Thursday. The Falcons are 9-4 to the UNDER in all games this season. They had gone eight straight UNDERS before going over the number last week in a 31-23 victory over Carolina. But the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the league, and Atlanta outscored them 24-0 in the second half. What the Falcons do well is stop the run, and the only thing that is keeping Jacksonville's offense afloat is Maurice Jones-Drew. He scored four touchdowns in their win over the Bucs last week. Atlanta ranks 5th in the NFL in run defense (95.2 yards/game), and you can bet that their entire game plan will be around stopping Jones-Drew, as it should be. The UNDER is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 road games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 on field turf. The UNDER is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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11-24-11 | Miami Dolphins v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 38 h 18 m | Show | |
15* Dolphins/Cowboys NFL Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44.5
Two of the top defenses in the league square off Thursday when the Miami Dolphins visit the Dallas Cowboys. I have no doubt this is going to be a defensive battle as both of these stop units are hitting on all cylinders coming into this one. Miami's defense has really stepped it up during their 3-game winning streak. The Dolphins have not allowed a touchdown in over 12 quarters! They have held their last three opponents to an average of 6.7 points/game and 278.7 total yards/game. This stop unit is coming together, but unfortunately this Miami offense is still one of the worst in the league. The Dolphins ranks just 23rd in the league in total offense (312.8 yards/game). They are scoring 19.3 points/game, including just 17.2 points/game in road contests this season. Miami will be up against a Dallas defense that ranks 10th in the league in yards allowed (328.6 yards/game). The Cowboys are giving up just 20.6 points/game overall, including 15.4 points/game at home. There's no denying that Dallas has a solid offense, but their numbers are inflated because they haven't played a quality defense aside from the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets the first two weeks of the season. This Miami defense is easily the best they have faced since those first two contests. This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) to the UNDER during the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in November games. The UNDER is 8-0-1 in Miami's last 9 games overall. The UNDER is 7-0 in Dolphins last 7 games as an underdog, and the UNDER is 6-0 in Dolphins last 6 road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). These three trends make for a 21-0 System backing the UNDER. Also, Miami is 20-6 to the UNDER in their last 26 road games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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11-20-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | Top | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Panthers/Lions OVER 47
Odds makers have set the mark too low Sunday in the Carolina at Detroit game. This play represents my strongest over/under release for the entire 2011 season. In perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field in Detroit, these two high-powered offenses are primed to go off. While Carolina only scores 21.1 points/game this season, they rank 6th in the league in total offense (400.0 yards/game) and it's only a matter of time before they start cashing in this big-time yardage into more points. Carolina's problem has been on defense, where they give up 26.3 points and 361.4 total yards/game. They are also allowing 31.0 points/game on the road this year. Detroit's offense has exploded for 28.0 points/game this year. They moved the ball at will on Chicago last week, but stopped themselves with turnovers and lost 13-37. Detroit ranks 13th in the league in total offense (360.0 yards/game), including 9th in passing (266.4 yards/game). Carolina is a perfect 6-0 to the OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is also a perfect 6-0 OVER off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Panthers last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Lions last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. These four trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |